Population genetic studies of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus): A summary of available data and interpretation of results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Garner, G.W.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Cronin, M.A.; Dizon, Andrew E.; Chivers, Susan J.; Perrin, William F.

1997-01-01

A summary of existing population genetics literature is presented for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and interpreted in the context of the species' life-history characteristics and regional heterogeneity in environmental regimes and movement patterns. Several nongenetic data sets including morphology, contaminant levels, geographic variation in reproductive characteristics, and the location and distribution of open-water foraging habitat suggest some degree of spatial structuring. Eleven populations are recognized by the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group. Few genetics studies exist for polar bears. Interpretation and generalizations of regional variation in intra- and interpopulation levels of genetic variability are confounded by the paucity of data from many regions and by the fact that no single informative genetic marker has been employed in multiple regions. Early allozyme studies revealed comparatively low levels of genetic variability and no compelling evidence of spatial structuring. Studies employing mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) also found low levels of genetic variation, a lack of phylogenetic structure, and no significant evidence for spatial variation in haplotype frequency. In contrast, microsatellite variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) loci have revealed significant heterogeneity in allele frequency among populations in the Canadian Arctic. These regions are characterized by archipelgic patterns of sea-ice movements. Further studies using highly polymorphic loci are needed in regions characterized by greater polar bear dependency on pelagic sea-ice movements and in regions for which no data currently exist (i.e., Laptev and Novaya Zemlya/Franz Josef).

Evaluation of spatial accessibility to primary healthcare using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamtsho, S.; Corner, R. J.

2014-11-01

Primary health care is considered to be one of the most important aspects of the health care system in any country, which directly helps in improving the health of the population. Potential spatial accessibility is a very important component of the primary health care system. One technique for studying spatial accessibility is by computing a gravity-based measure within a geographic information system (GIS) framework. In this study, straight-line distances between the associated population clusters and the health facilities and the provider-to-population ratio were used to compute the spatial accessibility of the population clusters for the whole country. Bhutan has been chosen as the case study area because it is quite easy to acquire and process data for the whole country due to its small size and population. The spatial accessibility measure of the 203 sub-districts shows noticeable disparities in health care accessibility in this country with about only 19 sub-districts achieving good health accessibility ranking. This study also examines a number of different health accessibility policy scenarios which can assist in identifying the most effective health policy from amongst many probable planning scenarios. Such a health accessibility measuring system can be incorporated into an existing spatial health system in developing countries to facilitate the proper planning and equitable distribution of health resources.

Spatio-temporal transitions in the dynamics of bacterial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Anna; Lincoln, Bryan; Mann, Bernward; Torres, Gelsy; Kas, Josef; Swinney, Harry

2001-03-01

We experimentally investigate the population dynamics of a strain of E. coli bacteria living under spatially inhomogeneous growth conditions. A localized perturbation that moves with a well-defined drift velocity is imposed on the system. A reaction-diffusion model of this situation^1 predicts that an abrupt transition between spatial localization and extinction of the colony occurs for a fixed average growth rate when the drift velocity exceeds a critical value. Also, a transition between localized and delocalized populations is predicted to occur at a fixed drift velocity when the spatially averaged growth rate is varied. We create a spatially localized perturbation with UV light and vary the strength and drift velocity of the perturbation to investigate the existence of the different bacterial population distributions and the transitions between them. Numerical simulations of a 250 mm by 20 mm system guide our experiments. ^1K. A. Dahmen, D. R. Nelson, N. M. Shnerb, Jour. Math. Bio., 41 1 (2000).

Fine-scale natal homing and localized movement as shaped by sex and spawning habitat in Chinook salmon: Insights from spatial autocorrelation analysis of individual genotypes

Treesearch

H. M. Neville; D. J. Isaak; J. B. Dunham; R. F. Thurow; B. E. Rieman

2006-01-01

Natal homing is a hallmark of the life history of salmonid fishes, but the spatial scale of homing within local, naturally reproducing salmon populations is still poorly understood. Accurate homing (paired with restricted movement) should lead to the existence of finescale genetic structuring due to the spatial clustering of related individuals on spawning grounds....

Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, andmore » a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.« less

Cannibals in space: the coevolution of cannibalism and dispersal in spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W; Kamo, Masashi; Boots, Mike

2010-05-01

The propensity for cannibalism varies considerably both within and between species. Currently we have little understanding of both the causes of this variation and its evolutionary consequences for other life-history traits. We examine how different levels of spatial structure affect the evolution of cannibalism and how cannibalism in turn drives the evolution of dispersal. Using pair approximations and simulations, we show that cannibalism can easily evolve in spatially structured populations as long as some dispersal exists. Furthermore, for a wide range of intermediate levels of spatial structure, we find the possibility of evolutionary branching leading to polymorphism in cannibalism. We also show that cannibalism itself can have important evolutionary consequences and select for increased dispersal rates, thus helping to determine the spatial structure of populations. The coevolution of cannibalism and dispersal results in the evolution of various alternative life-history strategies with different dispersal and cannibalism regimes. Which strategy evolves depends on the environmental conditions that determine initial cannibalism rates. Our results therefore suggest that differences in spatial structure could explain variation in the propensity for cannibalism and cannibalistic polyphenism. Furthermore, results emphasize that cannibalism can drive the evolution of other life-history traits and determine the spatial structure of natural populations.

Auditory spatial processing in the human cortex.

PubMed

Salminen, Nelli H; Tiitinen, Hannu; May, Patrick J C

2012-12-01

The auditory system codes spatial locations in a way that deviates from the spatial representations found in other modalities. This difference is especially striking in the cortex, where neurons form topographical maps of visual and tactile space but where auditory space is represented through a population rate code. In this hemifield code, sound source location is represented in the activity of two widely tuned opponent populations, one tuned to the right and the other to the left side of auditory space. Scientists are only beginning to uncover how this coding strategy adapts to various spatial processing demands. This review presents the current understanding of auditory spatial processing in the cortex. To this end, the authors consider how various implementations of the hemifield code may exist within the auditory cortex and how these may be modulated by the stimulation and task context. As a result, a coherent set of neural strategies for auditory spatial processing emerges.

Extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Coastal Impact Assessment: Spatial Coastal Population Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Reimann, Lena; Hinkel, Jochen; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

2016-04-01

This work extends the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers, which were identified from existing literature, we develop coastal narratives for the five basic SSPs (SSP1-5). These narratives account for differences in coastal versus inland population development in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data. We then adjust these rates for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. The resulting global population grids depict the projected distribution of coastal population for each SSP, until the end of the 21st century, at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. These grids exhibit a three- to four-fold increase in coastal population compared to the basic SSPs. Across all SSPs, except for SSP3, coastal population peaks by the middle of the 21st century and declines afterwards. In SSP3 the coastal population grows continuously until 2100. Compared to the base year 2000 the coastal population increases considerably in all SSPs. The extended SSPs are intended to be utilised in Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) assessments as they allow for improved analysis of exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding under different physical and socioeconomic scenarios.

Changes in population and agricultural land in conterminous United States counties, 1790 to 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waisanen, Pamela J.; Bliss, Norman B.

2002-01-01

We have developed a data set of changes in population and agricultural land for the conterminous United States at the county level, resulting in more spatial detail than in previously available compilations. The purpose was to provide data on the timing of land conversion as an input to dynamic models of the carbon cycle, although a wide variety of applications exist for the physical, biological, and social sciences. The spatial data represent the appropriate county boundaries for each census year between 1790 and 1997, and the census attributes are attached to the appropriate spatial region. The resulting time series and maps show the history of population (1790-1990) and the history of agricultural development (1850-1997). The patterns of agricultural development reflect the influences of climate, soil productivity, increases in population size, variations in the general economy, and technological changes in the energy, transportation, and agricultural sectors.

High-Resolution Spatial Distribution and Estimation of Access to Improved Sanitation in Kenya.

PubMed

Jia, Peng; Anderson, John D; Leitner, Michael; Rheingans, Richard

2016-01-01

Access to sanitation facilities is imperative in reducing the risk of multiple adverse health outcomes. A distinct disparity in sanitation exists among different wealth levels in many low-income countries, which may hinder the progress across each of the Millennium Development Goals. The surveyed households in 397 clusters from 2008-2009 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys were divided into five wealth quintiles based on their national asset scores. A series of spatial analysis methods including excess risk, local spatial autocorrelation, and spatial interpolation were applied to observe disparities in coverage of improved sanitation among different wealth categories. The total number of the population with improved sanitation was estimated by interpolating, time-adjusting, and multiplying the surveyed coverage rates by high-resolution population grids. A comparison was then made with the annual estimates from United Nations Population Division and World Health Organization /United Nations Children's Fund Joint Monitoring Program for Water Supply and Sanitation. The Empirical Bayesian Kriging interpolation produced minimal root mean squared error for all clusters and five quintiles while predicting the raw and spatial coverage rates of improved sanitation. The coverage in southern regions was generally higher than in the north and east, and the coverage in the south decreased from Nairobi in all directions, while Nyanza and North Eastern Province had relatively poor coverage. The general clustering trend of high and low sanitation improvement among surveyed clusters was confirmed after spatial smoothing. There exists an apparent disparity in sanitation among different wealth categories across Kenya and spatially smoothed coverage rates resulted in a closer estimation of the available statistics than raw coverage rates. Future intervention activities need to be tailored for both different wealth categories and nationally where there are areas of greater needs when resources are limited.

Gender, space, and the location changes of jobs and people: a spatial simultaneous equations analysis.

PubMed

Hoogstra, Gerke J

2012-01-01

This article summarizes a spatial econometric analysis of local population and employment growth in the Netherlands, with specific reference to impacts of gender and space. The simultaneous equations model used distinguishes between population- and gender-specific employment groups, and includes autoregressive and cross-regressive spatial lags to detect relations both within and among these groups. Spatial weights matrices reflecting different bands of travel times are used to calculate the spatial lags and to gauge the spatial nature of these relations. The empirical results show that although population–employment interaction is more localized for women's employment, no gender difference exists in the direction of interaction. Employment growth for both men and women is more influenced by population growth than vice versa. The interaction within employment groups is even more important than population growth. Women's, and especially men's, local employment growth mostly benefits from the same employment growth in neighboring locations. Finally, interaction between these groups is practically absent, although men's employment growth may have a negative impact on women's employment growth within small geographic areas. In summary, the results confirm the crucial roles of gender and space, and offer important insights into possible relations within and among subgroups of jobs and people.

Definition of spatial patterns of bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) outbreak spreading in Tatra Mountains (Central Europe), using GIS

Treesearch

Rastislav Jakus; Wojciech Grodzki; Marek Jezik; Marcin Jachym

2003-01-01

The spread of bark beetle outbreaks in the Tatra Mountains was explored by using both terrestrial and remote sensing techniques. Both approaches have proven to be useful for studying spatial patterns of bark beetle population dynamics. The terrestrial methods were applied on existing forestry databases. Vegetation change analysis (image differentiation), digital...

Zebra Crossing Spotter: Automatic Population of Spatial Databases for Increased Safety of Blind Travelers

PubMed Central

Ahmetovic, Dragan; Manduchi, Roberto; Coughlan, James M.; Mascetti, Sergio

2016-01-01

In this paper we propose a computer vision-based technique that mines existing spatial image databases for discovery of zebra crosswalks in urban settings. Knowing the location of crosswalks is critical for a blind person planning a trip that includes street crossing. By augmenting existing spatial databases (such as Google Maps or OpenStreetMap) with this information, a blind traveler may make more informed routing decisions, resulting in greater safety during independent travel. Our algorithm first searches for zebra crosswalks in satellite images; all candidates thus found are validated against spatially registered Google Street View images. This cascaded approach enables fast and reliable discovery and localization of zebra crosswalks in large image datasets. While fully automatic, our algorithm could also be complemented by a final crowdsourcing validation stage for increased accuracy. PMID:26824080

Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

2016-10-01

Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE PAGES

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; ...

2016-10-24

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

2016-01-01

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models.

PubMed

Hu, Hao; Nigmatulina, Karima; Eckhoff, Philip

2013-08-01

Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand and estimate contacts for simulation of disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one of two mechanisms is typically used to describe the relation between contact rate and population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence of population threshold and human mobility patterns, we formulated a spatial contact model to describe the appropriate form of transmission with initial growth at low density and saturation at higher density. We show that the two mechanisms are extreme cases that do not capture real population movement across all scales. Empirical data of human and wildlife diseases indicate that a nonlinear function may work better when looking at the full spectrum of densities. This estimation can be applied to large areas with population mixing in general activities. For crowds with unusually large densities (e.g., transportation terminals, stadiums, or mass gatherings), the lack of organized social contact structure deviates the physical contacts towards a special case of the spatial contact model - the dynamics of kinetic gas molecule collision. In this case, an ideal gas model with van der Waals correction fits well; existing movement observation data and the contact rate between individuals is estimated using kinetic theory. A complete picture of contact rate scaling with population density may help clarify the definition of transmission rates in heterogeneous, large-scale spatial systems. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data

PubMed Central

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed ‘hotspots’ of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species. PMID:27135614

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets and their limitations on epidemiological analyses. We review sources of detailed, contemporary, freely available and relevant spatial demographic data focusing on low income regions where such data are often sparse and highlight the value of incorporating these through a set of examples of their application in disease studies. Moreover, the importance of acknowledging, measuring, and accounting for uncertainty in spatial demographic datasets is outlined. Finally, a strategy for building an open-access database of spatial demographic data that is tailored to epidemiological applications is put forward. PMID:22591595

Spatially disaggregated population estimates in the absence of national population and housing census data

PubMed Central

Wardrop, N. A.; Jochem, W. C.; Bird, T. J.; Chamberlain, H. R.; Clarke, D.; Kerr, D.; Bengtsson, L.; Juran, S.; Seaman, V.; Tatem, A. J.

2018-01-01

Population numbers at local levels are fundamental data for many applications, including the delivery and planning of services, election preparation, and response to disasters. In resource-poor settings, recent and reliable demographic data at subnational scales can often be lacking. National population and housing census data can be outdated, inaccurate, or missing key groups or areas, while registry data are generally lacking or incomplete. Moreover, at local scales accurate boundary data are often limited, and high rates of migration and urban growth make existing data quickly outdated. Here we review past and ongoing work aimed at producing spatially disaggregated local-scale population estimates, and discuss how new technologies are now enabling robust and cost-effective solutions. Recent advances in the availability of detailed satellite imagery, geopositioning tools for field surveys, statistical methods, and computational power are enabling the development and application of approaches that can estimate population distributions at fine spatial scales across entire countries in the absence of census data. We outline the potential of such approaches as well as their limitations, emphasizing the political and operational hurdles for acceptance and sustainable implementation of new approaches, and the continued importance of traditional sources of national statistical data. PMID:29555739

Patterns of genetic diversity in the polymorphic ground snake (Sonora semiannulata).

PubMed

Cox, Christian L; Chippindale, Paul T

2014-08-01

We evaluated the genetic diversity of a snake species with color polymorphism to understand the evolutionary processes that drive genetic structure across a large geographic region. Specifically, we analyzed genetic structure of the highly polymorphic ground snake, Sonora semiannulata, (1) among populations, (2) among color morphs (3) at regional and local spatial scales, using an amplified fragment length polymorphism dataset and multiple population genetic analyses, including FST-based and clustering analytical techniques. Based upon these methods, we found that there was moderate to low genetic structure among populations. However, this diversity was not associated with geographic locality at either spatial scale. Similarly, we found no evidence for genetic divergence among color morphs at either spatial scale. These results suggest that despite dramatic color polymorphism, this phenotypic diversity is not a major driver of genetic diversity within or among populations of ground snakes. We suggest that there are two mechanisms that could explain existing genetic diversity in ground snakes: recent range expansion from a genetically diverse founder population and current or recent gene flow among populations. Our findings have further implications for the types of color polymorphism that may generate genetic diversity in snakes.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooke, Steven J.; Martins, Eduardo G; Struthers, Daniel P; Gutowsky, Lee F G; Powers, Michael H.; Doka, Susan E.; Dettmers, John M.; Crook, David A; Lucas, Martyn C.; Holbrook, Christopher; Krueger, Charles C.

2016-01-01

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.

A moving target--incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations.

PubMed

Cooke, Steven J; Martins, Eduardo G; Struthers, Daniel P; Gutowsky, Lee F G; Power, Michael; Doka, Susan E; Dettmers, John M; Crook, David A; Lucas, Martyn C; Holbrook, Christopher M; Krueger, Charles C

2016-04-01

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.

An Algorithm of Association Rule Mining for Microbial Energy Prospection

PubMed Central

Shaheen, Muhammad; Shahbaz, Muhammad

2017-01-01

The presence of hydrocarbons beneath earth’s surface produces some microbiological anomalies in soils and sediments. The detection of such microbial populations involves pure bio chemical processes which are specialized, expensive and time consuming. This paper proposes a new algorithm of context based association rule mining on non spatial data. The algorithm is a modified form of already developed algorithm which was for spatial database only. The algorithm is applied to mine context based association rules on microbial database to extract interesting and useful associations of microbial attributes with existence of hydrocarbon reserve. The surface and soil manifestations caused by the presence of hydrocarbon oxidizing microbes are selected from existing literature and stored in a shared database. The algorithm is applied on the said database to generate direct and indirect associations among the stored microbial indicators. These associations are then correlated with the probability of hydrocarbon’s existence. The numerical evaluation shows better accuracy for non-spatial data as compared to conventional algorithms at generating reliable and robust rules. PMID:28393846

Using satellite telemetry to define spatial population structure in polar bears in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mauritzen, Mette; Derocher, Andrew E.; Wiig, Øystein; Belikov, Stanislav; Boltunov, Andrei N.; Garner, Gerald W.

2002-01-01

1. Animal populations, defined by geographical areas within a species’ distribution where population dynamics are largely regulated by births and deaths rather than by migration from surrounding areas, may be the correct unit for wildlife management. However, in heterogeneous landscapes varying habitat quality may yield subpopulations with distinct patterns in resource use and demography significant to the dynamics of populations.2. To define the spatial population structure of polar bears Ursus maritimus in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic, and to assess the existence of a shared population between the two countries, we analysed satellite telemetry data obtained from 105 female polar bears over 12 years.3. Using both cluster analyses and home-range estimation methods, we identified five population units inhabiting areas with different sea-ice characteristics and prey availability.4. The continuous distribution of polar bear positions indicated that the different subpopulations formed one continuous polar bear population in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic. Hence, Norway and Russia have a shared management responsibility.5. The spatial population structure identified will provide a guide for evaluating geographical patterns in polar bear ecology, the dynamics of polar bear–seal relationships and the effects of habitat alteration due to climate change. The work illustrates the importance of defining population borders and subpopulation structure in understanding the dynamics and management of larger animals.

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

2005-01-01

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2007-01-01

Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

Cities, traffic, and CO2: A multidecadal assessment of trends, drivers, and scaling relationships

PubMed Central

Gately, Conor K.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Sue Wing, Ian

2015-01-01

Emissions of CO2 from road vehicles were 1.57 billion metric tons in 2012, accounting for 28% of US fossil fuel CO2 emissions, but the spatial distributions of these emissions are highly uncertain. We develop a new emissions inventory, the Database of Road Transportation Emissions (DARTE), which estimates CO2 emitted by US road transport at a resolution of 1 km annually for 1980–2012. DARTE reveals that urban areas are responsible for 80% of on-road emissions growth since 1980 and for 63% of total 2012 emissions. We observe nonlinearities between CO2 emissions and population density at broad spatial/temporal scales, with total on-road CO2 increasing nonlinearly with population density, rapidly up to 1,650 persons per square kilometer and slowly thereafter. Per capita emissions decline as density rises, but at markedly varying rates depending on existing densities. We make use of DARTE’s bottom-up construction to highlight the biases associated with the common practice of using population as a linear proxy for disaggregating national- or state-scale emissions. Comparing DARTE with existing downscaled inventories, we find biases of 100% or more in the spatial distribution of urban and rural emissions, largely driven by mismatches between inventory downscaling proxies and the actual spatial patterns of vehicle activity at urban scales. Given cities’ dual importance as sources of CO2 and an emerging nexus of climate mitigation initiatives, high-resolution estimates such as DARTE are critical both for accurately quantifying surface carbon fluxes and for verifying the effectiveness of emissions mitigation efforts at urban scales. PMID:25847992

Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Graves, Tabitha A.

2013-01-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

2013-02-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Geothermal development in southwest Idaho: the socioeconomic data base

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer,S.G.; Russell, B.F.

This report inventories, analyzes, and appraises the existing socioeconomic data base for the ten counties in southwest Idaho that would be impacted by any significant geothermal development. The inventory describes key sociological demographic, and economic characteristics, and presents spatial boundaries, housing data, and projections of population and economic activity for the counties. The inventory identifies the significant gaps in the existing data base and makes recommendations for future research.

Beyond the plot: technology extrapolation domains for scaling out agronomic science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rattalino Edreira, Juan I.; Cassman, Kenneth G.; Hochman, Zvi; van Ittersum, Martin K.; van Bussel, Lenny; Claessens, Lieven; Grassini, Patricio

2018-05-01

Ensuring an adequate food supply in systems that protect environmental quality and conserve natural resources requires productive and resource-efficient cropping systems on existing farmland. Meeting this challenge will be difficult without a robust spatial framework that facilitates rapid evaluation and scaling-out of currently available and emerging technologies. Here we develop a global spatial framework to delineate ‘technology extrapolation domains’ based on key climate and soil factors that govern crop yields and yield stability in rainfed crop production. The proposed framework adequately represents the spatial pattern of crop yields and stability when evaluated over the data-rich US Corn Belt. It also facilitates evaluation of cropping system performance across continents, which can improve efficiency of agricultural research that seeks to intensify production on existing farmland. Populating this biophysical spatial framework with appropriate socio-economic attributes provides the potential to amplify the return on investments in agricultural research and development by improving the effectiveness of research prioritization and impact assessment.

Visualizing spatial population structure with estimated effective migration surfaces

PubMed Central

Petkova, Desislava; Novembre, John; Stephens, Matthew

2015-01-01

Genetic data often exhibit patterns broadly consistent with “isolation by distance” – a phenomenon where genetic similarity decays with geographic distance. In a heterogeneous habitat this may occur more quickly in some regions than others: for example, barriers to gene flow can accelerate differentiation between neighboring groups. We use the concept of “effective migration” to model the relationship between genetics and geography: in this paradigm, effective migration is low in regions where genetic similarity decays quickly. We present a method to visualize variation in effective migration across the habitat from geographically indexed genetic data. Our approach uses a population genetic model to relate effective migration rates to expected genetic dissimilarities. We illustrate its potential and limitations using simulations and data from elephant, human and A. thaliana populations. The resulting visualizations highlight important spatial features of population structure that are difficult to discern using existing methods for summarizing genetic variation. PMID:26642242

Machine Vision Within The Framework Of Collective Neural Assemblies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Madan M.; Knopf, George K.

1990-03-01

The proposed mechanism for designing a robust machine vision system is based on the dynamic activity generated by the various neural populations embedded in nervous tissue. It is postulated that a hierarchy of anatomically distinct tissue regions are involved in visual sensory information processing. Each region may be represented as a planar sheet of densely interconnected neural circuits. Spatially localized aggregates of these circuits represent collective neural assemblies. Four dynamically coupled neural populations are assumed to exist within each assembly. In this paper we present a state-variable model for a tissue sheet derived from empirical studies of population dynamics. Each population is modelled as a nonlinear second-order system. It is possible to emulate certain observed physiological and psychophysiological phenomena of biological vision by properly programming the interconnective gains . Important early visual phenomena such as temporal and spatial noise insensitivity, contrast sensitivity and edge enhancement will be discussed for a one-dimensional tissue model.

Excitatory and Inhibitory Interactions in Localized Populations of Model Neurons

PubMed Central

Wilson, Hugh R.; Cowan, Jack D.

1972-01-01

Coupled nonlinear differential equations are derived for the dynamics of spatially localized populations containing both excitatory and inhibitory model neurons. Phase plane methods and numerical solutions are then used to investigate population responses to various types of stimuli. The results obtained show simple and multiple hysteresis phenomena and limit cycle activity. The latter is particularly interesting since the frequency of the limit cycle oscillation is found to be a monotonic function of stimulus intensity. Finally, it is proved that the existence of limit cycle dynamics in response to one class of stimuli implies the existence of multiple stable states and hysteresis in response to a different class of stimuli. The relation between these findings and a number of experiments is discussed. PMID:4332108

Spatially disaggregated population estimates in the absence of national population and housing census data.

PubMed

Wardrop, N A; Jochem, W C; Bird, T J; Chamberlain, H R; Clarke, D; Kerr, D; Bengtsson, L; Juran, S; Seaman, V; Tatem, A J

2018-04-03

Population numbers at local levels are fundamental data for many applications, including the delivery and planning of services, election preparation, and response to disasters. In resource-poor settings, recent and reliable demographic data at subnational scales can often be lacking. National population and housing census data can be outdated, inaccurate, or missing key groups or areas, while registry data are generally lacking or incomplete. Moreover, at local scales accurate boundary data are often limited, and high rates of migration and urban growth make existing data quickly outdated. Here we review past and ongoing work aimed at producing spatially disaggregated local-scale population estimates, and discuss how new technologies are now enabling robust and cost-effective solutions. Recent advances in the availability of detailed satellite imagery, geopositioning tools for field surveys, statistical methods, and computational power are enabling the development and application of approaches that can estimate population distributions at fine spatial scales across entire countries in the absence of census data. We outline the potential of such approaches as well as their limitations, emphasizing the political and operational hurdles for acceptance and sustainable implementation of new approaches, and the continued importance of traditional sources of national statistical data. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

PubMed Central

Eisinger, Dirk; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

2008-01-01

Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years. We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly developed individual-based model. Our spatially explicit approach allowed for the reproduction of pattern formation emerging from a pathogen's spread through its host population. We suggest that a much lower management effort could eliminate the disease than that currently in operation. This is supported by empirical evidence from historic field data. Adapting control measures to the new prediction would save one-third of resources in future control programmes. The reason for the lower prediction is the spatial structure formed by spreading infections in spatially arranged host populations. It is not the result of technical differences between models. Synthesis and applications. For diseases predominantly transmitted by neighbourhood interaction, our findings suggest that the emergence of spatial structures facilitates eradication. This may have substantial implications for the cost-effectiveness of existing disease management schemes, and suggests that when planning management strategies consideration must be given to methods that reflect the spatial nature of the pathogen–host system. PMID:18784795

Influence of landscape and social interactions on transmission of disease in a social cervid.

PubMed

Vander Wal, Eric; Paquet, Paul C; Andrés, José A

2012-03-01

The mechanisms of pathogen transmission are often social behaviours. These occur at local scales and are affected by landscape-scale population structure. Host populations frequently exist in patchy and isolated environments that create a continuum of genetic and social familiarity. Such variability has an important multispatial effect on pathogen spread. We assessed elk dispersal (i.e. likelihood of interdeme pathogen transmission) through spatially explicit genetic analyses. At a landscape scale, the elk population was composed of one cluster within a southeast-to-northwest cline spanning three spatially discrete subpopulations of elk across two protected areas in Manitoba (Canada). Genetic data are consistent with spatial variability in apparent prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in elk. Given the existing population structure, between-subpopulation spread of disease because of elk dispersal is unlikely. Furthermore, to better understand the risk of spread and distribution of the TB, we used a combination of close-contact logging biotelemetry and genetic data, which highlights how social intercourse may affect pathogen transmission. Our results indicate that close-contact interaction rate and duration did not covary with genetic relatedness. Thus, direct elk-to-elk transmission of disease is unlikely to be constrained to related individuals. That social intercourse in elk is not limited to familial groups provides some evidence pathogen transmission may be density-dependent. We show that the combination of landscape-scale genetics, relatedness and local-scale social behaviours is a promising approach to understand and predict landscape-level pathogen transmission within our system and within all social ungulate systems affected by transmissible diseases. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Spatial study of homicide rates in the state of Bahia, Brazil, 1996-2010

PubMed Central

de Souza, Tiago Oliveira; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach; de Souza, Edinilsa Ramos

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of homicide mortality in the state of Bahia, Northeastern Brazil. METHODS Ecological study of the 15 to 39-year old male population in the state of Bahia in the period 1996-2010. Data from the Mortality Information System, relating to homicide (X85-Y09) and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were used. The existence of spatial correlation, the presence of clusters and critical areas of the event studied were analyzed using Moran’s I Global and Local indices. RESULTS A non-random spatial pattern was observed in the distribution of rates, as was the presence of three clusters, the first in the north health district, the second in the eastern region, and the third cluster included townships in the south and the far south of Bahia. CONCLUSIONS The homicide mortality in the three different critical areas requires further studies that consider the socioeconomic, cultural and environmental characteristics in order to guide specific preventive and interventionist practices. PMID:25119942

Analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic model with logistic source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Li, Huicong; Tong, Yachun

2017-08-01

In this paper, we are concerned with an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model with logistic source in spatially heterogeneous environment. We first discuss some basic properties of the parabolic system, including the uniform upper bound of solutions and global stability of the endemic equilibrium when spatial environment is homogeneous. Our primary focus is to determine the asymptotic profile of endemic equilibria (when exist) if the diffusion (migration) rate of the susceptible or infected population is small or large. Combined with the results of Li et al. (J Differ Equ 262:885-913, 2017) where the case of linear source is studied, our analysis suggests that varying total population enhances persistence of infectious disease.

Characterizing spatial structure of sediment E. coli populations to inform sampling design.

PubMed

Piorkowski, Gregory S; Jamieson, Rob C; Hansen, Lisbeth Truelstrup; Bezanson, Greg S; Yost, Chris K

2014-01-01

Escherichia coli can persist in streambed sediments and influence water quality monitoring programs through their resuspension into overlying waters. This study examined the spatial patterns in E. coli concentration and population structure within streambed morphological features during baseflow and following stormflow to inform sampling strategies for representative characterization of E. coli populations within a stream reach. E. coli concentrations in bed sediments were significantly different (p = 0.002) among monitoring sites during baseflow, and significant interactive effects (p = 0.002) occurred among monitoring sites and morphological features following stormflow. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression revealed that water velocity and effective particle size (D 10) explained E. coli concentration during baseflow, whereas sediment organic carbon, water velocity and median particle diameter (D 50) were important explanatory variables following stormflow. Principle Coordinate Analysis illustrated the site-scale differences in sediment E. coli populations between disconnected stream segments. Also, E. coli populations were similar among depositional features within a reach, but differed in relation to high velocity features (e.g., riffles). Canonical correspondence analysis resolved that E. coli population structure was primarily explained by spatial (26.9–31.7 %) over environmental variables (9.2–13.1 %). Spatial autocorrelation existed among monitoring sites and morphological features for both sampling events, and gradients in mean particle diameter and water velocity influenced E. coli population structure for the baseflow and stormflow sampling events, respectively. Representative characterization of streambed E. coli requires sampling of depositional and high velocity environments to accommodate strain selectivity among these features owing to sediment and water velocity heterogeneity.

Spatial complementarity and the coexistence of species.

PubMed

Velázquez, Jorge; Garrahan, Juan P; Eichhorn, Markus P

2014-01-01

Coexistence of apparently similar species remains an enduring paradox in ecology. Spatial structure has been predicted to enable coexistence even when population-level models predict competitive exclusion if it causes each species to limit its own population more than that of its competitor. Nevertheless, existing hypotheses conflict with regard to whether clustering favours or precludes coexistence. The spatial segregation hypothesis predicts that in clustered populations the frequency of intra-specific interactions will be increased, causing each species to be self-limiting. Alternatively, individuals of the same species might compete over greater distances, known as heteromyopia, breaking down clusters and opening space for a second species to invade. In this study we create an individual-based model in homogeneous two-dimensional space for two putative sessile species differing only in their demographic rates and the range and strength of their competitive interactions. We fully characterise the parameter space within which coexistence occurs beyond population-level predictions, thereby revealing a region of coexistence generated by a previously-unrecognised process which we term the triadic mechanism. Here coexistence occurs due to the ability of a second generation of offspring of the rarer species to escape competition from their ancestors. We diagnose the conditions under which each of three spatial coexistence mechanisms operates and their characteristic spatial signatures. Deriving insights from a novel metric - ecological pressure - we demonstrate that coexistence is not solely determined by features of the numerically-dominant species. This results in a common framework for predicting, given any pair of species and knowledge of the relevant parameters, whether they will coexist, the mechanism by which they will do so, and the resultant spatial pattern of the community. Spatial coexistence arises from complementary combinations of traits in each species rather than solely through self-limitation.

Spatial Complementarity and the Coexistence of Species

PubMed Central

Velázquez, Jorge; Garrahan, Juan P.; Eichhorn, Markus P.

2014-01-01

Coexistence of apparently similar species remains an enduring paradox in ecology. Spatial structure has been predicted to enable coexistence even when population-level models predict competitive exclusion if it causes each species to limit its own population more than that of its competitor. Nevertheless, existing hypotheses conflict with regard to whether clustering favours or precludes coexistence. The spatial segregation hypothesis predicts that in clustered populations the frequency of intra-specific interactions will be increased, causing each species to be self-limiting. Alternatively, individuals of the same species might compete over greater distances, known as heteromyopia, breaking down clusters and opening space for a second species to invade. In this study we create an individual-based model in homogeneous two-dimensional space for two putative sessile species differing only in their demographic rates and the range and strength of their competitive interactions. We fully characterise the parameter space within which coexistence occurs beyond population-level predictions, thereby revealing a region of coexistence generated by a previously-unrecognised process which we term the triadic mechanism. Here coexistence occurs due to the ability of a second generation of offspring of the rarer species to escape competition from their ancestors. We diagnose the conditions under which each of three spatial coexistence mechanisms operates and their characteristic spatial signatures. Deriving insights from a novel metric — ecological pressure — we demonstrate that coexistence is not solely determined by features of the numerically-dominant species. This results in a common framework for predicting, given any pair of species and knowledge of the relevant parameters, whether they will coexist, the mechanism by which they will do so, and the resultant spatial pattern of the community. Spatial coexistence arises from complementary combinations of traits in each species rather than solely through self-limitation. PMID:25532018

The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR) of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution), LandScan (~1 km), UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km), and GPW3 (~5 km). More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was consistently more accurate than the others in estimating PAR. The sizes of such differences among modeled human populations were related to variations in the methods, input resolution, and date of the census data underlying each dataset. Data quality varied from country to country within the spatial population datasets. Conclusions Detailed, highly spatially resolved human population data are an essential resource for planning health service delivery for disease control, for the spatial modeling of epidemics, and for decision-making processes related to public health. However, our results highlight that for the low-income regions of the world where disease burden is greatest, existing datasets display substantial variations in estimated population distributions, resulting in uncertainty in disease assessments that utilize them. Increased efforts are required to gather contemporary and spatially detailed demographic data to reduce this uncertainty, particularly in Africa, and to develop population distribution modeling methods that match the rigor, sophistication, and ability to handle uncertainty of contemporary disease mapping and spread modeling. In the meantime, studies that utilize a particular spatial population dataset need to acknowledge the uncertainties inherent within them and consider how the methods and data that comprise each will affect conclusions. PMID:21299885

Disease and community structure: white-nose syndrome alters spatial and temporal niche partitioning in sympatric bat species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jachowski, David S.; Dobony, Christopher A.; Coleman, Laci S.; Ford, W. Mark; Britzke, Eric R.; Rodrigue, Jane L.

2014-01-01

AimEmerging infectious diseases present a major perturbation with apparent direct effects such as reduced population density, extirpation and/or extinction. Comparatively less is known about the potential indirect effects of disease that likely alter community structure and larger ecosystem function. Since 2006, white-nose syndrome (WNS) has resulted in the loss of over 6 million hibernating bats in eastern North America. Considerable evidence exists concerning niche partitioning in sympatric bat species in this region, and the unprecedented, rapid decline in multiple species following WNS may provide an opportunity to observe a dramatic restructuring of the bat community.LocationWe conducted our study at Fort Drum Army Installation in Jefferson and Lewis counties, New York, USA, where WNS first impacted extant bat species in winter 2007–2008.MethodsAcoustical monitoring during 2003–2011 allowed us to test the hypothesis that spatial and temporal niche partitioning by bats was relaxed post-WNS.ResultsWe detected nine bat species pre- and post-WNS. Activity for most bat species declined post-WNS. Dramatic post-WNS declines in activity of little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus, MYLU), formerly the most abundant bat species in the region, were associated with complex, often species-specific responses by other species that generally favoured increased spatial and temporal overlap with MYLU.Main conclusionsIn addition to the obvious direct effects of disease on bat populations and activity levels, our results provide evidence that disease can have cascading indirect effects on community structure. Recent occurrence of WNS in North America, combined with multiple existing stressors, is resulting in dramatic shifts in temporal and spatial niche partitioning within bat communities. These changes might influence long-term population viability of some bat species as well as broader scale ecosystem structure and function.

Cities, traffic, and CO 2: A multidecadal assessment of trends, drivers, and scaling relationships

DOE PAGES

Gately, Conor K.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Sue Wing, Ian

2015-04-06

Emissions of CO 2 from road vehicles were 1.57 billion metric tons in 2012, accounting for 28% of US fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, but the spatial distributions of these emissions are highly uncertain. We develop a new emissions inventory, the Database of Road Transportation Emissions (DARTE), which estimates CO 2 emitted by US road transport at a resolution of 1 km annually for 1980-2012. DARTE reveals that urban areas are responsible for 80% of on-road emissions growth since 1980 and for 63% of total 2012 emissions. We observe nonlinearities between CO 2 emissions and population density at broad spatial/temporalmore » scales, with total on-road CO 2 increasing nonlinearly with population density, rapidly up to 1,650 persons per square kilometer and slowly thereafter. Per capita emissions decline as density rises, but at markedly varying rates depending on existing densities. Here, we make use of DARTE's bottom-up construction to highlight the biases associated with the common practice of using population as a linear proxy for disaggregating national- or state-scale emissions. Comparing DARTE with existing downscaled inventories, we find biases of 100% or more in the spatial distribution of urban and rural emissions, largely driven by mismatches between inventory downscaling proxies and the actual spatial patterns of vehicle activity at urban scales. Here, given cities' dual importance as sources of CO 2 and an emerging nexus of climate mitigation initiatives, high-resolution estimates such as DARTE are critical both for accurately quantifying surface carbon fluxes and for verifying the effectiveness of emissions mitigation efforts at urban scales.« less

Divergent migration within lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) populations: Multiple distinct patterns exist across an unrestricted migration corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kessel, Steven T.; Hondorp, Darryl W.; Holbrook, Christopher; Boase, James C.; Chiotti, Justin A.; Thomas, Michael V.; Wills, Todd C.; Roseman, Edward; Drouin, Richard; Krueger, Charles C.

2018-01-01

Population structure, distribution, abundance, and dispersal arguably underpin the entire field of animal ecology, with consequences for regional species persistence, and provision of ecosystem services. Divergent migration behaviours among individuals or among populations is an important aspect of the ecology of highly-mobile animals, allowing populations to exploit spatially- or temporally-distributed food and space resources.This study investigated the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) within the barrier free Huron-Erie Corridor (HEC), which connects Lake Huron and Lake Erie of the North American Laurentian Great Lakes.Over six years (2011 – 2016), movements of 268 lake sturgeon in the HEC were continuously monitored across the Great Lakes using acoustic telemetry (10 yr battery life acoustic transmitters). Five distinct migration behaviours were identified with hierarchical cluster analysis, based on the phenology and duration of river and lake use.Lake sturgeon in the HEC were found to contain a high level of intraspecific divergent migration, including partial migration with the existence of residents. Specific behaviours included year-round river residency and multiple lake-migrant behaviours that involved movements between lakes and rivers. Over 85% of individuals were assign to migration behaviours as movements were consistently repeated over the study, which suggested migration behaviours were consistent and persistent in lake sturgeon. Differential use of specific rivers or lakes by acoustic-tagged lake sturgeon further subdivided individuals into 14 “contingents” (spatiotemporally segregated subgroups).Contingents associated with one river (Detroit or St. Clair) were rarely detected in the other river, which confirmed that lake sturgeon in the Detroit and St. Clair represent two semi-independent populations that could require separate management consideration for their conservation. The distribution of migration behaviours did not vary between populations, sexes, body size, or among release locations, which indicated that intrapopulation variability in migratory behaviour is a general feature of the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon in un-fragmented landscapes.

Strong solutions and instability for the fitness gradient system in evolutionary games between two populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Qiuju; Belmonte, Andrew; deForest, Russ; Liu, Chun; Tan, Zhong

2017-04-01

In this paper, we study a fitness gradient system for two populations interacting via a symmetric game. The population dynamics are governed by a conservation law, with a spatial migration flux determined by the fitness. By applying the Galerkin method, we establish the existence, regularity and uniqueness of global solutions to an approximate system, which retains most of the interesting mathematical properties of the original fitness gradient system. Furthermore, we show that a Turing instability occurs for equilibrium states of the fitness gradient system, and its approximations.

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime.

PubMed

Fitterer, Jessica L; Nelson, Trisalyn A

2015-01-01

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks).

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime

PubMed Central

Fitterer, Jessica L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.

2015-01-01

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks). PMID:26418016

Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Reimann, Lena; Hinkel, Jochen; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

2016-10-01

Existing quantifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) used for climate impact assessment do not account for subnational population dynamics such as coastward-migration that can be critical for coastal impact assessment. This paper extends the SSPs by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers we develop coastal narratives for each SSP. These narratives account for differences in coastal and inland population developments in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population, we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates, which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions, to project coastal population for each SSP. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data and adjusted for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. Our results show that, compared to the year 2000 (638 million), the population living in the Low Elevated Coastal Zone (LECZ) increases by 58% to 71% until 2050 and exceeds one billion in all SSPs. By the end of the 21st century, global coastal population declines to 830-907 million in all SSPs except for SSP3, where coastal population growth continues and reaches 1.184 billion. Overall, the population living in the LECZ is higher by 85 to 239 million compared to the original IIASA projections. Asia expects the highest absolute growth (238-303 million), Africa the highest relative growth (153% to 218%). Our results highlight regions where high coastal population growth is expected and will therefore face an increased exposure to coastal flooding.

Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: from center to margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Taper, M.L.; Schoenberger, M.; Brandl, J.

2005-01-01

Understanding the boundaries of species' ranges and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-temporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in altering birth and death rates, balancing source and sink habitats, and governing expansion or contraction of species' ranges in changing environments. We also showed that the multiple equilibria of metapopulations across a species' range could be easily broken following climatic changes or physical disturbances either or local or regional. Although we refer to our models as describing the population dynamics across whole species' range, they should also apply to small-scale habitats (metapopulations) in which species abundance follows a humped pattern or to any ecosystem or landscape where strong central-marginal (C-M) environmental gradients exist. Conservation of both central and marginal populations would therefore be equally important considerations in making management decisions.

Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: From centre to margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Taper, M.; Schoenberger, M.; Brandle, J.

2005-01-01

Understanding the boundaries of species' ranges and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-temporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in altering birth and death rates, balancing source and sink habitats, and governing expansion or contraction of species' ranges in changing environments. We also showed that the multiple equilibria of metapopulations across a species' range could be easily broken following climatic changes or physical disturbances either local or regional. Although we refer to our models as describing the population dynamics across whole species' range, they should also apply to small-scale habitats (metapopulations) in which species abundance follows a humped pattern or to any ecosystem or landscape where strong central-marginal (C-M) environmental gradients exist. Conservation of both central and marginal populations would therefore be equally important considerations in making management decisions.

Computerized stratified random site-selection approaches for design of a ground-water-quality sampling network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, J.C.

1990-01-01

Computer software was written to randomly select sites for a ground-water-quality sampling network. The software uses digital cartographic techniques and subroutines from a proprietary geographic information system. The report presents the approaches, computer software, and sample applications. It is often desirable to collect ground-water-quality samples from various areas in a study region that have different values of a spatial characteristic, such as land-use or hydrogeologic setting. A stratified network can be used for testing hypotheses about relations between spatial characteristics and water quality, or for calculating statistical descriptions of water-quality data that account for variations that correspond to the spatial characteristic. In the software described, a study region is subdivided into areal subsets that have a common spatial characteristic to stratify the population into several categories from which sampling sites are selected. Different numbers of sites may be selected from each category of areal subsets. A population of potential sampling sites may be defined by either specifying a fixed population of existing sites, or by preparing an equally spaced population of potential sites. In either case, each site is identified with a single category, depending on the value of the spatial characteristic of the areal subset in which the site is located. Sites are selected from one category at a time. One of two approaches may be used to select sites. Sites may be selected randomly, or the areal subsets in the category can be grouped into cells and sites selected randomly from each cell.

Spatial aspects of building and population exposure data and their implications for global earthquake exposure modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dell’Acqua, F.; Gamba, P.; Jaiswal, K.

2012-01-01

This paper discusses spatial aspects of the global exposure dataset and mapping needs for earthquake risk assessment. We discuss this in the context of development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM), which requires compilation of a multi-scale inventory of assets at risk, for example, buildings, populations, and economic exposure. After defining the relevant spatial and geographic scales of interest, different procedures are proposed to disaggregate coarse-resolution data, to map them, and if necessary to infer missing data by using proxies. We discuss the advantages and limitations of these methodologies and detail the potentials of utilizing remote-sensing data. The latter is used especially to homogenize an existing coarser dataset and, where possible, replace it with detailed information extracted from remote sensing using the built-up indicators for different environments. Present research shows that the spatial aspects of earthquake risk computation are tightly connected with the availability of datasets of the resolution necessary for producing sufficiently detailed exposure. The global exposure database designed by the GED4GEM project is able to manage datasets and queries of multiple spatial scales.

Evidence that Magnetic Navigation and Geomagnetic Imprinting Shape Spatial Genetic Variation in Sea Turtles.

PubMed

Brothers, J Roger; Lohmann, Kenneth J

2018-04-23

The canonical drivers of population genetic structure, or spatial genetic variation, are isolation by distance and isolation by environment. Isolation by distance predicts that neighboring populations will be genetically similar and geographically distant populations will be genetically distinct [1]. Numerous examples also exist of isolation by environment, a phenomenon in which populations that inhabit similar environments (e.g., same elevation, temperature, or vegetation) are genetically similar even if they are distant, whereas populations that inhabit different environments are genetically distinct even when geographically close [2-4]. These dual models provide a widely accepted conceptual framework for understanding population structure [5-8]. Here, we present evidence for an additional, novel process that we call isolation by navigation, in which the navigational mechanism used by a long-distance migrant influences population structure independently of isolation by either distance or environment. Specifically, we investigated the population structure of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) [9], which return to nest on their natal beaches by seeking out unique magnetic signatures along the coast-a behavior known as geomagnetic imprinting [10-12]. Results reveal that spatial variation in Earth's magnetic field strongly predicts genetic differentiation between nesting beaches, even when environmental similarities and geographic proximity are taken into account. The findings provide genetic corroboration of geomagnetic imprinting [10, 13]. Moreover, they provide strong evidence that geomagnetic imprinting and magnetic navigation help shape the population structure of sea turtles and perhaps numerous other long-distance migrants that return to their natal areas to reproduce [13-17]. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Financial Burden of Attending University in Georgia: Implications for Rural Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chankseliani, Maia

2013-01-01

By evaluating the impact of policies to financially support university students in Georgia, this article demonstrates the systematic spatial disparities that exist in a context of formally equal competition. The author uses a mixed-methods design, combining quantitative evidence on the entire population of Georgian university applicants in…

Population Structure of Two Rabies Hosts Relative to the Known Distribution of Rabies Virus Variants in Alaska

PubMed Central

Goldsmith, Elizabeth W.; Renshaw, Benjamin; Clement, Christopher J.; Himschoot, Elizabeth A.; Hundertmark, Kris J.; Hueffer, Karsten

2015-01-01

For pathogens that infect multiple species the distinction between reservoir hosts and spillover hosts is often difficult. In Alaska, three variants of the arctic rabies virus exist with distinct spatial distributions. We test the hypothesis that rabies virus variant distribution corresponds to the population structure of the primary rabies hosts in Alaska, arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) and red foxes (V. vulpes) in order to possibly distinguish reservoir and spill over hosts. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence and nine microsatellites to assess population structure in those two species. mtDNA structure did not correspond to rabies virus variant structure in either species. Microsatellite analyses gave varying results. Bayesian clustering found 2 groups of arctic foxes in the coastal tundra region, but for red foxes it identified tundra and boreal types. Spatial Bayesian clustering and spatial principal components analysis identified 3 and 4 groups of arctic foxes, respectively, closely matching the distribution of rabies virus variants in the state. Red foxes, conversely, showed eight clusters comprising 2 regions (boreal and tundra) with much admixture. These results run contrary to previous beliefs that arctic fox show no fine-scale spatial population structure. While we cannot rule out that the red fox is part of the maintenance host community for rabies in Alaska, the distribution of virus variants appears to be driven primarily by the artic fox Therefore we show that host population genetics can be utilized to distinguish between maintenance and spillover hosts when used in conjunction with other approaches. PMID:26661691

Population structure of two rabies hosts relative to the known distribution of rabies virus variants in Alaska.

PubMed

Goldsmith, Elizabeth W; Renshaw, Benjamin; Clement, Christopher J; Himschoot, Elizabeth A; Hundertmark, Kris J; Hueffer, Karsten

2016-02-01

For pathogens that infect multiple species, the distinction between reservoir hosts and spillover hosts is often difficult. In Alaska, three variants of the arctic rabies virus exist with distinct spatial distributions. We tested the hypothesis that rabies virus variant distribution corresponds to the population structure of the primary rabies hosts in Alaska, arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) to possibly distinguish reservoir and spillover hosts. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence and nine microsatellites to assess population structure in those two species. mtDNA structure did not correspond to rabies virus variant structure in either species. Microsatellite analyses gave varying results. Bayesian clustering found two groups of arctic foxes in the coastal tundra region, but for red foxes it identified tundra and boreal types. Spatial Bayesian clustering and spatial principal components analysis identified 3 and 4 groups of arctic foxes, respectively, closely matching the distribution of rabies virus variants in the state. Red foxes, conversely, showed eight clusters comprising two regions (boreal and tundra) with much admixture. These results run contrary to previous beliefs that arctic fox show no fine-scale spatial population structure. While we cannot rule out that the red fox is part of the maintenance host community for rabies in Alaska, the distribution of virus variants appears to be driven primarily by the arctic fox. Therefore, we show that host population genetics can be utilized to distinguish between maintenance and spillover hosts when used in conjunction with other approaches. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Extreme Genetic Structure in a Small-Bodied Freshwater Fish, the Purple Spotted Gudgeon, Mogurnda adspersa (Eleotridae)

PubMed Central

Hughes, Jane M.; Real, Kathryn M.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Schmidt, Daniel J.

2012-01-01

Freshwater fish are a group that is especially susceptible to biodiversity loss as they often exist naturally in small, fragmented populations that are vulnerable to habitat degradation, pollution and introduction of exotic species. Relatively little is known about spatial dynamics of unperturbed populations of small-bodied freshwater fish species. This study examined population genetic structure of the purple spotted gudgeon (Mogurnda adspersa, Eleotridae), a small-bodied freshwater fish that is widely distributed in eastern Australia. The species is threatened in parts of its range but is common in coastal streams of central Queensland where this study took place. Microsatellite (msat) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation was assessed for nine sites from four stream sections in two drainage basins. Very high levels of among population structure were observed (msat F ST = 0.18; mtDNA ΦST = 0.85) and evidence for contemporary migration among populations was rare and limited to sites within the same section of stream. Hierarchical structuring of variation was best explained by stream section rather than by drainage basin. Estimates of contemporary effective population size for each site was low (range 28 – 63, Sibship method), but compared favorably with similar estimates for other freshwater fish species, and there was no genetic evidence for inbreeding or recent population bottlenecks. In conclusion, within a stable part of its range, M adspersa exists as a series of small, demographically stable populations that are highly isolated from one another. Complimentary patterns in microsatellites and mtDNA indicate this structuring is the result of long-term processes that have developed over a remarkably small spatial scale. High population structure and limited dispersal mean that recolonisation of locally extinct populations is only likely to occur from closely situated populations within stream sections. Limited potential for recolonisation should be considered as an important factor in conservation and management of this species. PMID:22808190

Dynamics of land change in India: a fine-scale spatial analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meiyappan, P.; Roy, P. S.; Sharma, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Ramachandran, R.; Joshi, P. K.

2015-12-01

Land is scarce in India: India occupies 2.4% of worlds land area, but supports over 1/6th of worlds human and livestock population. This high population to land ratio, combined with socioeconomic development and increasing consumption has placed tremendous pressure on India's land resources for food, feed, and fuel. In this talk, we present contemporary (1985 to 2005) spatial estimates of land change in India using national-level analysis of Landsat imageries. Further, we investigate the causes of the spatial patterns of change using two complementary lines of evidence. First, we use statistical models estimated at macro-scale to understand the spatial relationships between land change patterns and their concomitant drivers. This analysis using our newly compiled extensive socioeconomic database at village level (~630,000 units), is 100x higher in spatial resolution compared to existing datasets, and covers over 200 variables. The detailed socioeconomic data enabled the fine-scale spatial analysis with Landsat data. Second, we synthesized information from over 130 survey based case studies on land use drivers in India to complement our macro-scale analysis. The case studies are especially useful to identify unobserved variables (e.g. farmer's attitude towards risk). Ours is the most detailed analysis of contemporary land change in India, both in terms of national extent, and the use of detailed spatial information on land change, socioeconomic factors, and synthesis of case studies.

The impact of resource dependence of the mechanisms of life on the spatial population dynamics of an in silico microbial community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, Aisling J.; Baetens, Jan M.; De Baets, Bernard

2016-12-01

Biodiversity has a critical impact on ecosystem functionality and stability, and thus the current biodiversity crisis has motivated many studies of the mechanisms that sustain biodiversity, a notable example being non-transitive or cyclic competition. We therefore extend existing microscopic models of communities with cyclic competition by incorporating resource dependence in demographic processes, characteristics of natural systems often oversimplified or overlooked by modellers. The spatially explicit nature of our individual-based model of three interacting species results in the formation of stable spatial structures, which have significant effects on community functioning, in agreement with experimental observations of pattern formation in microbial communities.

Predator attack rate evolution in space: the role of ecology mediated by complex emergent spatial structure and self-shading.

PubMed

Messinger, Susanna M; Ostling, Annette

2013-11-01

Predation interactions are an important element of ecological communities. Population spatial structure has been shown to influence predator evolution, resulting in the evolution of a reduced predator attack rate; however, the evolutionary role of traits governing predator and prey ecology is unknown. The evolutionary effect of spatial structure on a predator's attack rate has primarily been explored assuming a fixed metapopulation spatial structure, and understood in terms of group selection. But endogenously generated, emergent spatial structure is common in nature. Furthermore, the evolutionary influence of ecological traits may be mediated through the spatial self-structuring process. Drawing from theory on pathogens, the evolutionary effect of emergent spatial structure can be understood in terms of self-shading, where a voracious predator limits its long-term invasion potential by reducing local prey availability. Here we formalize the effects of self-shading for predators using spatial moment equations. Then, through simulations, we show that in a spatial context self-shading leads to relationships between predator-prey ecology and the predator's attack rate that are not expected in a non-spatial context. Some relationships are analogous to relationships already shown for host-pathogen interactions, but others represent new trait dimensions. Finally, since understanding the effects of ecology using existing self-shading theory requires simplifications of the emergent spatial structure that do not apply well here, we also develop metrics describing the complex spatial structure of the predator and prey populations to help us explain the evolutionary effect of predator and prey ecology in the context of self-shading. The identification of these metrics may provide a step towards expansion of the predictive domain of self-shading theory to more complex spatial dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

LETTER TO THE EDITOR: Evidence for global mixing in real influenza epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonabeau, Eric; Toubiana, Laurent; Flahault, Antoine

1998-05-01

The spatiotemporal behaviour of the spread of influenza in France has been studied, and algebraic spatial correlations (with exponent 0305-4470/31/19/001/img5) spanning the whole territory have been found to be present as soon as the number of reported cases begins to increase, about 15 - 25 weeks before the peak of the epidemic. This result is surprising, as one would expect long-range correlations, if any, only in the vicinity of the maximum incidence, whereas our observations suggest that there exists an underlying non-trivial spatial structure at the very beginning of the observed epidemic. The observed long-range correlations are in fact present in the spatial distribution of the population. Correlations in the number of cases normalized by local population density are characterized by 0305-4470/31/19/001/img6. This suggests that the spread of the epidemic is statistically uniform in space over a complex substrate that already contains the observed long-range correlations.

A spatial-temporal approach to surveillance of prostate cancer disparities in population subgroups.

PubMed Central

Hsu, Chiehwen Ed; Mas, Francisco Soto; Miller, Jerry A.; Nkhoma, Ella T.

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer mortality disparities exist among racial/ethnic groups in the United States, yet few studies have explored the spatiotemporal trend of the disease burden. To better understand mortality disparities by geographic regions over time, the present study analyzed the geographic variations of prostate cancer mortality by three Texas racial/ethnic groups over a 22-year period. METHODS: The Spatial Scan Statistic developed by Kulldorff et al was used. Excess mortality was detected using scan windows of 50% and 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. Time trend was analyzed to examine the potential temporal effects of clustering. Spatial queries were used to identify regions with multiple racial/ethnic groups having excess mortality. RESULTS: The most likely area of excess mortality for blacks occurred in Dallas-Metroplex and upper east Texas areas between 1990 and 1999; for Hispanics, in central Texas between 1992 and 1996: and for non-Hispanic whites, in the upper south and west to central Texas areas between 1990 and 1996. Excess mortality persisted among all racial/ethnic groups in the identified counties. The second scan revealed that three counties in west Texas presented an excess mortality for Hispanics from 1980-2001. Many counties bore an excess mortality burden for multiple groups. There is no time trend decline in prostate cancer mortality for blacks and non-Hispanic whites in Texas. CONCLUSION: Disparities in prostate cancer mortality among racial/ethnic groups existed in Texas. Central Texas counties with excess mortality in multiple subgroups warrant further investigation. PMID:17304971

Spatial analysis to identify hotspots of prevalence of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Moreno, Berta; García-Alonso, Carlos R; Negrín Hernández, Miguel A; Torres-González, Francisco; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2008-10-01

The geographical distribution of mental health disorders is useful information for epidemiological research and health services planning. To determine the existence of geographical hotspots with a high prevalence of schizophrenia in a mental health area in Spain. The study included 774 patients with schizophrenia who were users of the community mental health care service in the area of South Granada. Spatial analysis (Kernel estimation) and Bayesian relative risks were used to locate potential hotspots. Availability and accessibility were both rated in each zone and spatial algebra was applied to identify hotspots in a particular zone. The age-corrected prevalence rate of schizophrenia was 2.86 per 1,000 population in the South Granada area. Bayesian analysis showed a relative risk varying from 0.43 to 2.33. The area analysed had a non-uniform spatial distribution of schizophrenia, with one main hotspot (zone S2). This zone had poor accessibility to and availability of mental health services. A municipality-based variation exists in the prevalence of schizophrenia and related disorders in the study area. Spatial analysis techniques are useful tools to analyse the heterogeneous distribution of a variable and to explain genetic/environmental factors in hotspots related with a lack of easy availability of and accessibility to adequate health care services.

Atlas warping for brain morphometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, Alexei M. C.; Gee, James C.

1998-06-01

In this work, we describe an automated approach to morphometry based on spatial normalizations of the data, and demonstrate its application to the analysis of gender differences in the human corpus callosum. The purpose is to describe a population by a reduced and representative set of variables, from which a prior model can be constructed. Our approach is rooted in the assumption that individual anatomies can be considered as quantitative variations on a common underlying qualitative plane. We can therefore imagine that a given individual's anatomy is a warped version of some referential anatomy, also known as an atlas. The spatial warps which transform a labeled atlas into anatomic alignment with a population yield immediate knowledge about organ size and shape in the group. Furthermore, variation within the set of spatial warps is directly related to the anatomic variation among the subjects. Specifically, the shape statistics--mean and variance of the mappings--for the population can be calculated in a special basis, and an eigendecomposition of the variance performed to identify the most significant modes of shape variation. The results obtained with the corpus callosum study confirm the existence of substantial anatomical differences between males and females, as reported in previous experimental work.

smokeSALUD: exploring the effect of demographic change on the smoking prevalence at municipality level in Austria.

PubMed

Tomintz, Melanie; Kosar, Bernhard; Clarke, Graham

2016-10-07

Reducing the smoking population is still high on the policy agenda, as smoking leads to many preventable diseases, such as lung cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and more. In Austria, data on smoking prevalence only exists at the federal state level. This provides an interesting overview about the current health situation, but for regional planning authorities these data are often insufficient as they can hide pockets of high and low smoking prevalence in certain municipalities. This paper presents a spatial-temporal change of estimated smokers for municipalities from 2001 and 2011. A synthetic dataset of smokers is built by combining individual large-scale survey data and small area census data using a deterministic spatial microsimulation approach. Statistical analysis, including chi-square test and binary logistic regression, are applied to find the best variables for the simulation model and to validate its results. As no easy-to-use spatial microsimulation software for non-programmers is available yet, a flexible web-based spatial microsimulation application for health decision support (called simSALUD) has been developed and used for these analyses. The results of the simulation show in general a decrease of smoking prevalence within municipalities between 2001 and 2011 and differences within areas are identified. These results are especially valuable to policy decision makers for future planning strategies. This case study shows the application of smokeSALUD to model the spatial-temporal changes in the smoking population in Austria between 2001 and 2011. This is important as no data on smoking exists at this geographical scale (municipality). However, spatial microsimulation models are useful tools to estimate small area health data and to overcome these problems. The simulations and analysis should support health decision makers to identify hot spots of smokers and this should help to show where to spend health resources best in order to reduce health inequalities.

Spatial variability in recruitment of benthos near drilling sites in the Iheya North hydrothermal field in the Okinawa Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Masako; Nakajima, Yuichi; Watanabe, Hiromi Kayama; Sasaki, Takenori; Yamamoto, Hiroyuki; Mitarai, Satoshi

2018-05-01

Due to increasing anthropogenic impacts on deep-sea hydrothermal vent ecosystems, it is essential to understand population structure and maintenance through larval recruitment and recovery of vent faunas after disturbances. In this study, we quantified vent animal recruitment in the Okinawa Trough, in the western Pacific Ocean. This is the first study to investigate recruitment patterns at a man-made hydrothermal vent. Colonization plates were deployed at three sites. Site 1 manifested new hydrothermal shimmering with small chimneys, white bacterial mats, and some alvinocaridid shrimp that arrived after drilling. Site 2 showed no evidence of newly arrived foundation species after drilling, and Site 3 had pre-existing animal communities in the vicinity of the new vent. Twenty-two months after deployment, colonization plates were retrieved and recruited animals were inventoried. Species composition and abundance differed among sites, but relatively high similarity in species composition was observed at Sites 1 and 3, though not at Site 2. Newly established communities on the plates at Sites 1 and 2 (no pre-existing fauna) showed lower species richness and abundance than at Site 3. Differences in abundance and size-frequency distributions of major recruits on the plates (i.e. Lepetodrilus nux, Bathymodiolus spp.) suggest the importance of reproductive and early life-history characteristics in spatial variability of recruitment. Lepetodrilus nux populations established on the plates at Site 1 showed high genetic connectivity. These results illustrate the importance of localized recruitment, which may have a significant impact on sustainability of vent faunal populations, despite the existence of regional metapopulations.

Spatial Genetic Structure and Mitochondrial DNA Phylogeography of Argentinean Populations of the Grasshopper Dichroplus elongatus

PubMed Central

Rosetti, Natalia; Remis, Maria Isabel

2012-01-01

Many grasshopper species are considered of agronomical importance because they cause damage to pastures and crops. Comprehension of pest population dynamics requires a clear understanding of the genetic diversity and spatial structure of populations. In this study we report on patterns of genetic variation in the South American grasshopper Dichroplus elongatus which is an agricultural pest of crops and forage grasses of great economic significance in Argentina. We use Direct Amplification of Minisatellite Regions (DAMD) and partial sequences of the cytochrome oxydase 1 (COI) mitochondrial gene to investigate intraspecific structure, demographic history and gene flow patterns in twenty Argentinean populations of this species belonging to different geographic and biogeographic regions. DAMD data suggest that, although genetic drift and migration occur within and between populations, measurable relatedness among neighbouring populations declines with distance and dispersal over distances greater than 200 km is not typical, whereas effective gene flow may occur for populations separated by less than 100 km. Landscape analysis was useful to detect genetic discontinuities associated with environmental heterogeneity reflecting the changing agroecosystem. The COI results indicate the existence of strong genetic differentiation between two groups of populations located at both margins of the Paraná River which became separated during climate oscillations of the Middle Pleistocene, suggesting a significant restriction in effective dispersion mediated by females and large scale geographic differentiation. The number of migrants between populations estimated through mitochondrial and DAMD markers suggest that gene flow is low prompting a non-homogeneous spatial structure and justifying the variation through space. Moreover, the genetic analysis of both markers allows us to conclude that males appear to disperse more than females, reducing the chance of the genetic loss associated with recent anthropogenic fragmentation of the D. elongatus studied range. PMID:22859953

A Spatial Panel Data Analysis of Economic Growth, Urbanization, and NOx Emissions in China

PubMed Central

Ge, Xiangyu; Zhou, Yanli; Liu, Songlin

2018-01-01

Is nitrogen oxides emissions spatially correlated in a Chinese context? What is the relationship between nitrogen oxides emission levels and fast-growing economy/urbanization? More importantly, what environmental preservation and economic developing policies should China’s central and local governments take to mitigate the overall nitrogen oxides emissions and prevent severe air pollution at the provincial level in specific locations and their neighboring areas? The present study aims to tackle these issues. This is the first research that simultaneously studies the nexus between nitrogen oxides emissions and economic development/urbanization, with the application of a spatial panel data technique. Our empirical findings suggest that spatial dependence of nitrogen oxides emissions distribution exists at the provincial level. Through the investigation of the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) embedded within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework, we conclude something interesting: an inverse N-shaped EKC describes both the income-nitrogen oxides nexus and the urbanization-nitrogen oxides nexus. Some well-directed policy advice is provided to reduce nitrogen oxides in the future. Moreover, these results contribute to the literature on development and pollution. PMID:29641500

A Spatial Panel Data Analysis of Economic Growth, Urbanization, and NOx Emissions in China.

PubMed

Ge, Xiangyu; Zhou, Zhimin; Zhou, Yanli; Ye, Xinyue; Liu, Songlin

2018-04-11

Abstract : Is nitrogen oxides emissions spatially correlated in a Chinese context? What is the relationship between nitrogen oxides emission levels and fast-growing economy/urbanization? More importantly, what environmental preservation and economic developing policies should China's central and local governments take to mitigate the overall nitrogen oxides emissions and prevent severe air pollution at the provincial level in specific locations and their neighboring areas? The present study aims to tackle these issues. This is the first research that simultaneously studies the nexus between nitrogen oxides emissions and economic development/urbanization, with the application of a spatial panel data technique. Our empirical findings suggest that spatial dependence of nitrogen oxides emissions distribution exists at the provincial level. Through the investigation of the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) embedded within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework, we conclude something interesting: an inverse N-shaped EKC describes both the income-nitrogen oxides nexus and the urbanization-nitrogen oxides nexus. Some well-directed policy advice is provided to reduce nitrogen oxides in the future. Moreover, these results contribute to the literature on development and pollution.

Divergent migration within lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) populations: Multiple distinct patterns exist across an unrestricted migration corridor.

PubMed

Kessel, Steven T; Hondorp, Darryl W; Holbrook, Christopher M; Boase, James C; Chiotti, Justin A; Thomas, Michael V; Wills, Todd C; Roseman, Edward F; Drouin, Richard; Krueger, Charles C

2018-01-01

Population structure, distribution, abundance and dispersal arguably underpin the entire field of animal ecology, with consequences for regional species persistence, and provision of ecosystem services. Divergent migration behaviours among individuals or among populations are an important aspect of the ecology of highly mobile animals, allowing populations to exploit spatially or temporally distributed food and space resources. This study investigated the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) within the barrier free Huron-Erie Corridor (HEC), which connects Lake Huron and Lake Erie of the North American Laurentian Great Lakes. Over 6 years (2011-2016), movements of 268 lake sturgeon in the HEC were continuously monitored across the Great Lakes using acoustic telemetry (10 years battery life acoustic transmitters). Five distinct migration behaviours were identified with hierarchical cluster analysis, based on the phenology and duration of river and lake use. Lake sturgeon in the HEC were found to contain a high level of intraspecific divergent migration, including partial migration with the existence of residents. Specific behaviours included year-round river residency and multiple lake-migrant behaviours that involved movements between lakes and rivers. Over 85% of individuals were assigned to migration behaviours as movements were consistently repeated over the study, which suggested migration behaviours were consistent and persistent in lake sturgeon. Differential use of specific rivers or lakes by acoustic-tagged lake sturgeon further subdivided individuals into 14 "contingents" (spatiotemporally segregated subgroups). Contingents associated with one river (Detroit or St. Clair) were rarely detected in the other river, which confirmed that lake sturgeon in the Detroit and St. Clair represent two semi-independent populations that could require separate management consideration for their conservation. The distribution of migration behaviours did not vary between populations, sexes, body size or among release locations, which indicated that intrapopulation variability in migratory behaviour is a general feature of the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon in unfragmented landscapes. 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

An Evaluation of Population Density Mapping and Built up Area Estimates in Sri Lanka Using Multiple Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engstrom, R.; Soundararajan, V.; Newhouse, D.

2017-12-01

In this study we examine how well multiple population density and built up estimates that utilize satellite data compare in Sri Lanka. The population relationship is examined at the Gram Niladhari (GN) level, the lowest administrative unit in Sri Lanka from the 2011 census. For this study we have two spatial domains, the whole country and a 3,500km2 sub-sample, for which we have complete high spatial resolution imagery coverage. For both the entire country and the sub-sample we examine how consistent are the existing publicly available measures of population constructed from satellite imagery at predicting population density? For just the sub-sample we examine how well do a suite of values derived from high spatial resolution satellite imagery predict population density and how does our built up area estimate compare to other publicly available estimates. Population measures were obtained from the Sri Lankan census, and were downloaded from Facebook, WorldPoP, GPW, and Landscan. Percentage built-up area at the GN level was calculated from three sources: Facebook, Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). For the sub-sample we have derived a variety of indicators from the high spatial resolution imagery. Using deep learning convolutional neural networks, an object oriented, and a non-overlapping block, spatial feature approach. Variables calculated include: cars, shadows (a proxy for building height), built up area, and buildings, roof types, roads, type of agriculture, NDVI, Pantex, and Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and others. Results indicate that population estimates are accurate at the higher, DS Division level but not necessarily at the GN level. Estimates from Facebook correlated well with census population (GN correlation of 0.91) but measures from GPW and WorldPop are more weakly correlated (0.64 and 0.34). Estimates of built-up area appear to be reliable. In the 32 DSD-subsample, Facebook's built- up area measure is highly correlated with our built-up measure (correlation of 0.9). Preliminary regression results based on variables selected from Lasso-regressions indicate that satellite indicators have exceptionally strong predictive power in predicting GN level population level and density with an out of sample r-squared of 0.75 and 0.72 respectively.

Phenology and spatial distribution of native and exotic Tetropium longhorned beetles (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

PubMed

Rhainds, Marc; Heard, Stephen B; Sweeney, Jon D; Silk, Peter; Flaherty, Leah

2010-12-01

The co-existence of two closely related Tetropium species in eastern Canada, invasive T. fuscum and native T. cinnamopterum (TF and TC, respectively), provides a model system to investigate seasonal and spatial demographic parameters of biological invasions at the interspecific level. In this study, we take advantage of the similar semiochemical communication of TF and TC to evaluate the abundance of adults of the two species concurrently using grids of traps baited with pheromone and host volatiles in stands of spruce. Adult TF emerged on average 2 wk before TC both in the field and under controlled laboratory conditions. This observation, combined with the early reproduction of emergent females, implies that the smaller (younger) larvae of native TC may be at increased risk of intra-guild predation by TF. The high spatial association between male and female TF in dense, aggregated populations suggests that the rate of mate encounter is depressed in sparse populations toward the edge of the invasive range. The higher level of spatial aggregation for TF than TC, particularly at high population density, suggests a higher propensity of adult TF to congregate at "landmarks." Considering the broader range of host conditions, earlier seasonal emergence, and presumably more effective mate encounter for TF than TC, the exotic TF may be a superior competitor with the potential to displace or reduce the abundance of TC. © 2010 Entomological Society of America

Spatial Typologies of Care: Understanding the Implications of the Spatial Distribution of Off-Base Civilian Behavioral Health Providers Who Accept TRICARE Prime to Service Persons and Their Dependents.

PubMed

Schultheis, Eric; Glasmeier, Amy

2015-09-01

Over the last decade, demand for services from military treatment facilities (MTFs) has frequently exceeded capacity resulting in increased usage of off-base civilian Tricare providers (OCTP). This capacity shortage has been particularly acute for mental health care. At many installations, OCTPs are the main source of mental health care for military personnel and their families. Utilizing data on the location of mental health OCTPs and demographic data, we examine the spatial accessibility of mental health OCTPs around five military installations. Variation exists in the spatial accessibility of mental health OCTPs depending on the geographic context of an installation. There is a mild correlation between the number of mental health OTCPs proximate to a base and the beneficiaries enrolled in an MTF. There is a strong correlation between the size of the general population proximate to an installation and the number of mental health OCTMPs present. Installations located in densely populated areas had high ratios of mental health OCTPs to the MTF beneficiary population but not when the civilian demand on these providers was accounted for. This study's findings open several avenues for future research and policy aimed at increasing the effectiveness of the mental health OCTP network. Reprint & Copyright © 2015 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

A comprehensive population dataset for Afghanistan constructed using GIS-based dasymetric mapping methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Allyson L.; Hubbard, Bernard E.

2014-01-01

This report summarizes the application of dasymetric methods for mapping the distribution of population throughout Afghanistan. Because Afghanistan's population has constantly changed through decades of war and conflict, existing vector and raster GIS datasets (such as point settlement densities and intensities of lights at night) do not adequately reflect the changes. The purposes of this report are (1) to provide historic population data at the provincial and district levels that can be used to chart population growth and migration trends within the country and (2) to provide baseline information that can be used for other types of spatial analyses of Afghanistan, such as resource and hazard assessments; infrastructure and capacity rebuilding; and assisting with international, regional, and local planning.

[Natural forming causes of China population distribution].

PubMed

Fang, Yu; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua; Xiao, Yi; Niu, Jun-Feng; Chen, Sheng-Bin; Lu, Fei

2012-12-01

The diverse natural environment in China causes the spatial heterogeneity of China population distribution. It is essential to understand the interrelations between the population distribution pattern and natural environment to enhance the understanding of the man-land relationship and the realization of the sustainable management for the population, resources, and environment. This paper analyzed the China population distribution by adopting the index of population density (PD) in combining with spatial statistic method and Lorenz curve, and discussed the effects of the natural factors on the population distribution and the interrelations between the population distribution and 16 indices including average annual precipitation (AAP), average annual temperature (AAT), average annual sunshine duration (AASD), precipitation variation (PV), temperature variation (TV), sunshine duration variation (SDV), relative humidity (RH), aridity index (AI), warmth index ( WI), > or = 5 degrees C annual accumulated temperature (AACT), average elevation (AE), relative height difference (RHD), surface roughness (SR), water system density (WSD), net primary productivity (NPP), and shortest distance to seashore (SDTS). There existed an obvious aggregation phenomenon in the population distribution in China. The PD was high in east China, medium in central China, and low in west China, presenting an obvious positive spatial association. The PD was significantly positively correlated with WSD, AAT, AAP, NPP, AACT, PV, RH, and WI, and significantly negatively correlated with RHD, AE, SDV, SR, and SDTS. The climate factors (AAT, WI, PV, and NPP), topography factors (SR and RHD), and water system factor (WSD) together determined the basic pattern of the population distribution in China. It was suggested that the monitoring of the eco-environment in the east China of high population density should be strengthened to avoid the eco-environmental degradation due to the expanding population, and the conservation of the eco-environment in the central and west China with vulnerable eco-environment should also be strengthened to enhance the population carrying ability of these regions and to mitigate the eco-environmental pressure in the east China of high population density.

Human movement data for malaria control and elimination strategic planning.

PubMed

Pindolia, Deepa K; Garcia, Andres J; Wesolowski, Amy; Smith, David L; Buckee, Caroline O; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Tatem, Andrew J

2012-06-18

Recent increases in funding for malaria control have led to the reduction in transmission in many malaria endemic countries, prompting the national control programmes of 36 malaria endemic countries to set elimination targets. Accounting for human population movement (HPM) in planning for control, elimination and post-elimination surveillance is important, as evidenced by previous elimination attempts that were undermined by the reintroduction of malaria through HPM. Strategic control and elimination planning, therefore, requires quantitative information on HPM patterns and the translation of these into parasite dispersion. HPM patterns and the risk of malaria vary substantially across spatial and temporal scales, demographic and socioeconomic sub-groups, and motivation for travel, so multiple data sets are likely required for quantification of movement. While existing studies based on mobile phone call record data combined with malaria transmission maps have begun to address within-country HPM patterns, other aspects remain poorly quantified despite their importance in accurately gauging malaria movement patterns and building control and detection strategies, such as cross-border HPM, demographic and socioeconomic stratification of HPM patterns, forms of transport, personal malaria protection and other factors that modify malaria risk. A wealth of data exist to aid filling these gaps, which, when combined with spatial data on transport infrastructure, traffic and malaria transmission, can answer relevant questions to guide strategic planning. This review aims to (i) discuss relevant types of HPM across spatial and temporal scales, (ii) document where datasets exist to quantify HPM, (iii) highlight where data gaps remain and (iv) briefly put forward methods for integrating these datasets in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework for analysing and modelling human population and Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection movements.

Human movement data for malaria control and elimination strategic planning

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Recent increases in funding for malaria control have led to the reduction in transmission in many malaria endemic countries, prompting the national control programmes of 36 malaria endemic countries to set elimination targets. Accounting for human population movement (HPM) in planning for control, elimination and post-elimination surveillance is important, as evidenced by previous elimination attempts that were undermined by the reintroduction of malaria through HPM. Strategic control and elimination planning, therefore, requires quantitative information on HPM patterns and the translation of these into parasite dispersion. HPM patterns and the risk of malaria vary substantially across spatial and temporal scales, demographic and socioeconomic sub-groups, and motivation for travel, so multiple data sets are likely required for quantification of movement. While existing studies based on mobile phone call record data combined with malaria transmission maps have begun to address within-country HPM patterns, other aspects remain poorly quantified despite their importance in accurately gauging malaria movement patterns and building control and detection strategies, such as cross-border HPM, demographic and socioeconomic stratification of HPM patterns, forms of transport, personal malaria protection and other factors that modify malaria risk. A wealth of data exist to aid filling these gaps, which, when combined with spatial data on transport infrastructure, traffic and malaria transmission, can answer relevant questions to guide strategic planning. This review aims to (i) discuss relevant types of HPM across spatial and temporal scales, (ii) document where datasets exist to quantify HPM, (iii) highlight where data gaps remain and (iv) briefly put forward methods for integrating these datasets in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework for analysing and modelling human population and Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection movements. PMID:22703541

Monitoring Population Evolution in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 TO 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, S.; Liu, F.; Zhang, Z.

2018-04-01

On behalf of more populous and developed regions in China, urban agglomerations have become important carries loading active economic activities and generous social benefits, and experienced sharper population increase, which results in great threat on local eco-environment construction. Therefore, exact and detailed population monitoring and analyzing, especially on the long sequence and multi frequency, is of great significance. The nighttime light time-series (NLT) products has been proven to be one of the most useful remotely sensed imagery to acquire persons at 1 km × 1 km scales. However, the existed problems, such as light saturation and blooming, greatly limit the accuracy of estimated results. Furthermore, it's difficult to spatialize population at km2 level due to the lack of basic data in non-census years. In order to solve all problems mentioned above, the populous Pearl River Delta was selected as the study area. A new residential extent extraction index (REEI) was proposed to solve light saturation and blooming problems. Population spatialization methods in census and non-census years were applied to acquire detailed population distribution from 2000 to 2010. Results showed the feasibility of the proposed methods in this work. During the decade, population was denser in the central PRD and sparser in the eastern, western and northern PRD. The speed of population increase was various in nine cities, but faster in 2000-2005 than 2005-2010.

Comparison of estimation methods for creating small area rates of acute myocardial infarction among Medicare beneficiaries in California.

PubMed

Yasaitis, Laura C; Arcaya, Mariana C; Subramanian, S V

2015-09-01

Creating local population health measures from administrative data would be useful for health policy and public health monitoring purposes. While a wide range of options--from simple spatial smoothers to model-based methods--for estimating such rates exists, there are relatively few side-by-side comparisons, especially not with real-world data. In this paper, we compare methods for creating local estimates of acute myocardial infarction rates from Medicare claims data. A Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain estimator that incorporated spatial and local random effects performed best, followed by a method-of-moments spatial Empirical Bayes estimator. As the former is more complicated and time-consuming, spatial linear Empirical Bayes methods may represent a good alternative for non-specialist investigators. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics.

PubMed

Stark, James H; Cummings, Derek A T; Ermentrout, Bard; Ostroff, Stephen; Sharma, Ravi; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S; Wisniewski, Stephen R

2012-01-01

Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation=62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales.

Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics

PubMed Central

Stark, James H.; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Ermentrout, Bard; Ostroff, Stephen; Sharma, Ravi; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S.; Wisniewski, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Background Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. Methodology and Findings We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. Conclusions These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. PMID:22916274

Modelling and formation of spatiotemporal patterns of fractional predation system in subdiffusion and superdiffusion scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owolabi, Kolade M.; Atangana, Abdon

2018-02-01

This paper primarily focused on the question of how population diffusion can affect the formation of the spatial patterns in the spatial fraction predator-prey system by Turing mechanisms. Our numerical findings assert that modeling by fractional reaction-diffusion equations should be considered as an appropriate tool for studying the fundamental mechanisms of complex spatiotemporal dynamics. We observe that pure Hopf instability gives rise to the formation of spiral patterns in 2D and pure Turing instability destroys the spiral pattern and results to the formation of chaotic or spatiotemporal spatial patterns. Existence and permanence of the species is also guaranteed with the 3D simulations at some instances of time for subdiffusive and superdiffusive scenarios.

Relationships between brightness of nighttime lights and population density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naizhuo, Z.

2012-12-01

Brightness of nighttime lights has been proven to be a good proxy for socioeconomic and demographic statistics. Moreover, the satellite nighttime lights data have been used to spatially disaggregate amounts of gross domestic product (GDP), fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission, and electric power consumption (Ghosh et al., 2010; Oda and Maksyutov, 2011; Zhao et al., 2012). Spatial disaggregations were performed in these previous studies based on assumed linear relationships between digital number (DN) value of pixels in the nighttime light images and socioeconomic data. However, reliability of the linear relationships was never tested due to lack of relative high-spatial-resolution (equal to or finer than 1 km × 1 km) statistical data. With the similar assumption that brightness linearly correlates to population, Bharti et al. (2011) used nighttime light data as a proxy for population density and then developed a model about seasonal fluctuations of measles in West Africa. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory used sub-national census population data and high spatial resolution remotely-sensed-images to produce LandScan population raster datasets. The LandScan population datasets have 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution which is consistent with the spatial resolution of the nighttime light images. Therefore, in this study I selected 2008 LandScan population data as baseline reference data and the contiguous United State as study area. Relationships between DN value of pixels in the 2008 Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) stable light image and population density were established. Results showed that an exponential function can more accurately reflect the relationship between luminosity and population density than a linear function. Additionally, a certain number of saturated pixels with DN value of 63 exist in urban core areas. If directly using the exponential function to estimate the population density for the whole brightly lit area, relatively large under-estimations would emerge in the urban core regions. Previous studies have shown that GDP, carbon dioxide emission, and electric power consumption strongly correlate to urban population (Ghosh et al., 2010; Sutton et al., 2007; Zhao et al., 2012). Thus, although this study only examined the relationships between brightness of nighttime lights and population density, the results can provide insight for the spatial disaggregations of socioeconomic data (e.g. GDP, carbon dioxide emission, and electric power consumption) using the satellite nighttime light image data. Simply distributing the socioeconomic data to each pixel in proportion to the DN value of the nighttime light images may generate relatively large errors. References Bharit N, Tatem AJ, Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Djibo A, Grenfell BT, 2011. Science, 334:1424-1427. Ghosh T, Elvidge CD, Sutton PC, Baugh KE, Ziskin D, Tuttle BT, 2010. Energies, 3:1895-1913. Oda T, Maksyutov S, 2011. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11:543-556. Sutton PC, Elvidge CD, Ghosh T, 2007. International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics, 8:5-21. Zhao N, Ghosh T, Samson EL, 2012. International Journal of Remote sensing, 33:6304-6320.

Spatial distribution and influence factors of interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical names in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Wang, Y.; Ju, H.

2017-12-01

The interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical entities are the key areas of regional integrated management. Based on toponomy dictionaries and different thematic maps, the attributes and the spatial extent of the interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical names (ITPGN, including terrain ITPGN and water ITPGN) were extracted. The coefficient of variation and Moran's I were combined together to measure the spatial variation and spatial association of ITPGN. The influencing factors of the distribution of ITPGN and the implications for the regional management were further discussed. The results showed that 11325 ITPGN were extracted, including 7082 terrain ITPGN and 4243 water ITPGN. Hunan Province had the largest number of ITPGN in China, and Shanghai had the smallest number. The spatial variance of the terrain ITPGN was larger than that of the water ITPGN, and the ITPGN showed a significant agglomeration phenomenon in the southern part of China. Further analysis showed that the number of ITPGN was positively related with the relative elevation and the population where the relative elevation was lower than 2000m and the population was less than 50 million. But the number of ITPGN showed a negative relationship with the two factors when their values became larger, indicating a large number of unnamed entities existed in complex terrain areas and a decreasing number of terrestrial physical geographical entities in densely populated area. Based on these analysis, we suggest the government take the ITPGN as management units to realize a balance development between different parts of the entities and strengthen the geographical names census and the nomination of unnamed interprovincial physical geographical entities. This study also demonstrated that the methods of literature survey, coefficient of variation and Moran's I can be combined to enhance the understanding of the spatial pattern of ITPGN.

A parallel implementation of an off-lattice individual-based model of multicellular populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, Daniel G.; Fletcher, Alexander G.; Osborne, James M.; Pitt-Francis, Joe

2015-07-01

As computational models of multicellular populations include ever more detailed descriptions of biophysical and biochemical processes, the computational cost of simulating such models limits their ability to generate novel scientific hypotheses and testable predictions. While developments in microchip technology continue to increase the power of individual processors, parallel computing offers an immediate increase in available processing power. To make full use of parallel computing technology, it is necessary to develop specialised algorithms. To this end, we present a parallel algorithm for a class of off-lattice individual-based models of multicellular populations. The algorithm divides the spatial domain between computing processes and comprises communication routines that ensure the model is correctly simulated on multiple processors. The parallel algorithm is shown to accurately reproduce the results of a deterministic simulation performed using a pre-existing serial implementation. We test the scaling of computation time, memory use and load balancing as more processes are used to simulate a cell population of fixed size. We find approximate linear scaling of both speed-up and memory consumption on up to 32 processor cores. Dynamic load balancing is shown to provide speed-up for non-regular spatial distributions of cells in the case of a growing population.

Electron energetics in the inner coma of Comet Halley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, L.; Cravens, T. E.

1990-05-01

A quasi-two-dimensional model of the spatial and energy distribution of electrons in the inner coma of Comet Halley has been constructed from a spherically symmetric ion density profile based on Giotto measurements, using the two-stream electron transport method and the time-dependent electron energy equation. A sharp jump in the electron temperature was found to be present at a cometocentric distance of about 15,000 km. This thermal boundary separates an inner region where cooling processes are dominant from an outer region where heat transport is more important. Both thermal and suprathermal electron populations exist inside the thermal boundary with comparable kinetic pressures. Outside the thermal boundary, a cloud electron population does not exist, and the electrons are almost isothermal along the magnetic field lines.

The New Destination Disadvantage: Disparities in Hispanic Health Insurance Coverage Rates in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan New and Established Destinations

PubMed Central

Monnat, Shannon M.

2016-01-01

Hispanics have the lowest health insurance rates of any racial/ethnic group, but rates vary significantly across the U.S. The unprecedented growth of the Hispanic population since 1990 in rural areas with previously small or non-existent Hispanic populations raises questions about disparities in access to health insurance coverage. Identifying spatial disparities in Hispanic health insurance rates can illuminate the specific contexts within which Hispanics are least likely to have health care access and inform policy approaches for increasing coverage in different spatial contexts. Using county-level data from the 2009/2013 American Community Survey, I find that early new destinations (i.e., those that experienced rapid Hispanic population growth during the 1990s) have the lowest Hispanic adult health insurance coverage rates, with little variation by metropolitan status. Conversely, among the most recent new destinations that experienced significant Hispanic population growth during the 2000s, metropolitan counties have Hispanic health insurance rates that are similar to established destinations, but rural counties have Hispanic health insurance rates that are significantly lower than those in established destinations. Findings demonstrate that the new destination disadvantage is driven entirely by higher concentrations of immigrant non-citizen Hispanics in these counties, but labor market conditions were salient drivers of the spatially uneven distribution of foreign-born non-citizen Hispanics to new destinations, particularly in rural areas. PMID:28479612

Problem in application carrying capacity approach for land allocation assessment in Indonesian municipal spatial planning: A case of Kutai Kartanegara Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijaya, I. N. S.; Rahadi, B.; Lusiana, N.; Maulidina, I.

2017-06-01

Urbanization in many countries, such as Indonesia, is commonly appeared as a dynamic population of developed areas. It is followed with reducing rural uses of land for improving urban land uses such as housing, industry, infrastructure, etc. in response to the growth of population. One may not be sufficiently considered by the urban planners and the decision makers, urbanization also means escalation of natural resources consumption that should be supported by the natural capacity of the area. In this situation, balancing approach as carrying capacity calculation in spatial planning is needed for sustainability. Indonesian Spatial Planning Law 26/2007 has already expressed about the balance approach in the system. Moreover, it strictly regulates the assessment and the permission system in controlling land development, especially for the conversion. However, the reductions over the rural uses of land, especially agriculture, are continuously occurred. Concerning the planning approach, this paper aims to disclose common insufficiency of carrying capacity considerations in Indonesian spatial planning practice. This paper describes common calculation weaknesses in projecting area for the urban development by recalculating the actual gap between supply and demand of agriculture land areas. Here, municipal spatial plan of Kutai Kartanegara Regency is utilized as single sample case to discuss. As the result, the recalculation shows that: 1) there are serious deficit status of agriculture land areas in order to fulfil the demanded agriculture production for the existed population, 2) some calculation of agriculture production may be miss-interpreted because of insufficient explanation toward the productivity of each agriculture commodity.

Urban sprawl and fragmentation in Latin America: a dynamic quantification and characterization of spatial patterns.

PubMed

Inostroza, Luis; Baur, Rolf; Csaplovics, Elmar

2013-01-30

South America is one of the most urbanized continents in the world, where almost 84% of the total population lives in cities, more urbanized than North America (82%) and Europe (73%). Spatial dynamics, their structure, main features, land consumption rates, spatial arrangement, fragmentation degrees and comparability, remain mostly unknown for most Latin American cities. Using satellite imagery the main parameters of sprawl are quantified for 10 Latin American cities over a period of 20 years by monitoring growth patterns and identifying spatial metrics to characterize urban development and sprawling features measured with GIS tools. This quantification contributes to a better understanding of urban form in Latin America. A pervasive spatial expansion has been observed, where most of the studied cities are expanding at fast rates with falling densities trend. Although important differences in the rates of land consumption and densities exist, there is an underlying fragmentation trend towards increasing sprawl. These trends of spatial discontinuity may eventually be intensified by further economic development. Urban Sprawl/Latin America/GIS metrics/spatial development. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human population, urban settlement patterns and their impact on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity.

PubMed

Tatem, Andrew J; Guerra, Carlos A; Kabaria, Caroline W; Noor, Abdisalan M; Hay, Simon I

2008-10-27

The efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control and the optimal distribution of appropriate interventions require accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk and of the human populations it affects. Low population densities in rural areas and high population densities in urban areas can influence malaria transmission substantially. Here, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) global database of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys, medical intelligence and contemporary population surfaces are utilized to explore these relationships and other issues involved in combining malaria risk maps with those of human population distribution in order to define populations at risk more accurately. First, an existing population surface was examined to determine if it was sufficiently detailed to be used reliably as a mask to identify areas of very low and very high population density as malaria free regions. Second, the potential of international travel and health guidelines (ITHGs) for identifying malaria free cities was examined. Third, the differences in PfPR values between surveys conducted in author-defined rural and urban areas were examined. Fourth, the ability of various global urban extent maps to reliably discriminate these author-based classifications of urban and rural in the PfPR database was investigated. Finally, the urban map that most accurately replicated the author-based classifications was analysed to examine the effects of urban classifications on PfPR values across the entire MAP database. Masks of zero population density excluded many non-zero PfPR surveys, indicating that the population surface was not detailed enough to define areas of zero transmission resulting from low population densities. In contrast, the ITHGs enabled the identification and mapping of 53 malaria free urban areas within endemic countries. Comparison of PfPR survey results showed significant differences between author-defined 'urban' and 'rural' designations in Africa, but not for the remainder of the malaria endemic world. The Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) urban extent mask proved most accurate for mapping these author-defined rural and urban locations, and further sub-divisions of urban extents into urban and peri-urban classes enabled the effects of high population densities on malaria transmission to be mapped and quantified. The availability of detailed, contemporary census and urban extent data for the construction of coherent and accurate global spatial population databases is often poor. These known sources of uncertainty in population surfaces and urban maps have the potential to be incorporated into future malaria burden estimates. Currently, insufficient spatial information exists globally to identify areas accurately where population density is low enough to impact upon transmission. Medical intelligence does however exist to reliably identify malaria free cities. Moreover, in Africa, urban areas that have a significant effect on malaria transmission can be mapped.

[Location selection for Shenyang urban parks based on GIS and multi-objective location allocation model].

PubMed

Zhou, Yuan; Shi, Tie-Mao; Hu, Yuan-Man; Gao, Chang; Liu, Miao; Song, Lin-Qi

2011-12-01

Based on geographic information system (GIS) technology and multi-objective location-allocation (LA) model, and in considering of four relatively independent objective factors (population density level, air pollution level, urban heat island effect level, and urban land use pattern), an optimized location selection for the urban parks within the Third Ring of Shenyang was conducted, and the selection results were compared with the spatial distribution of existing parks, aimed to evaluate the rationality of the spatial distribution of urban green spaces. In the location selection of urban green spaces in the study area, the factor air pollution was most important, and, compared with single objective factor, the weighted analysis results of multi-objective factors could provide optimized spatial location selection of new urban green spaces. The combination of GIS technology with LA model would be a new approach for the spatial optimizing of urban green spaces.

Spin voltage generation through optical excitation of complementary spin populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottegoni, Federico; Celebrano, Michele; Bollani, Monica; Biagioni, Paolo; Isella, Giovanni; Ciccacci, Franco; Finazzi, Marco

2014-08-01

By exploiting the spin degree of freedom of carriers inside electronic devices, spintronics has a huge potential for quantum computation and dissipationless interconnects. Pure spin currents in spintronic devices should be driven by a spin voltage generator, able to drive the spin distribution out of equilibrium without inducing charge currents. Ideally, such a generator should operate at room temperature, be highly integrable with existing semiconductor technology, and not interfere with other spintronic building blocks that make use of ferromagnetic materials. Here we demonstrate a device that matches these requirements by realizing the spintronic equivalent of a photovoltaic generator. Whereas a photovoltaic generator spatially separates photoexcited electrons and holes, our device exploits circularly polarized light to produce two spatially well-defined electron populations with opposite in-plane spin projections. This is achieved by modulating the phase and amplitude of the light wavefronts entering a semiconductor (germanium) with a patterned metal overlayer (platinum). The resulting light diffraction pattern features a spatially modulated chirality inside the semiconductor, which locally excites spin-polarized electrons thanks to electric dipole selection rules.

Spatial-temporal variations of natural suitability of human settlement environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area—A case study in Fengjie County, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jieqiong; Zhou, Tinggang; Du, Peijun; Xu, Zhigang

2018-01-01

With rapid environmental degeneration and socio-economic development, the human settlement environment (HSE) has experienced dramatic changes and attracted attention from different communities. Consequently, the spatial-temporal evaluation of natural suitability of the human settlement environment (NSHSE) has become essential for understanding the patterns and dynamics of HSE, and for coordinating sustainable development among regional populations, resources, and environments. This study aims to explore the spatialtemporal evolution of NSHSE patterns in 1997, 2005, and 2009 in Fengjie County near the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). A spatially weighted NSHSE model was established by integrating multi-source data (e.g., census data, meteorological data, remote sensing images, DEM data, and GIS data) into one framework, where the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression model was applied to calculate the weights of indices in the NSHSE model. Results show that the trend of natural suitability has been first downward and then upward, which is evidenced by the disparity of NSHSE existing in the south, north, and central areas of Fengjie County. Results also reveal clustered NSHSE patterns for all 30 townships. Meanwhile, NSHSE has significant influence on population distribution, and 71.49% of the total population is living in moderate and high suitable districts.

Prediction and prevention of parasitic diseases using a landscape genomics framework

PubMed Central

Schwabl, Philipp; Llewellyn, Martin; Landguth, Erin L.; Andersson, Björn; Kitron, Uriel; Costales, Jaime A.; Ocaña, Sofía; Grijalva, Mario J.

2016-01-01

Summary Substantial heterogeneity exists in the dispersal, distribution and transmission of parasitic species. Understanding and predicting how such features are governed by the ecological variation of landscape they inhabit is the central goal of spatial epidemiology. Genetic data can further inform functional connectivity among parasite, host and vector populations in a landscape. Gene flow correlates with the spread of epidemiologically relevant phenotypes among parasite and vector populations (e.g., virulence, drug and pesticide resistance), as well as invasion and re-invasion risk where parasite transmission is absent due to current or past intervention measures. However, the formal integration of spatial and genetic data (‘landscape genetics’) is scarcely ever applied to parasites. Here, we discuss the specific challenges and practical prospects for the use of landscape genetics and genomics to understand the biology and control of parasitic disease and present a practical framework for doing so. PMID:27863902

Prediction and Prevention of Parasitic Diseases Using a Landscape Genomics Framework.

PubMed

Schwabl, Philipp; Llewellyn, Martin S; Landguth, Erin L; Andersson, Björn; Kitron, Uriel; Costales, Jaime A; Ocaña, Sofía; Grijalva, Mario J

2017-04-01

Substantial heterogeneity exists in the dispersal, distribution and transmission of parasitic species. Understanding and predicting how such features are governed by the ecological variation of landscape they inhabit is the central goal of spatial epidemiology. Genetic data can further inform functional connectivity among parasite, host and vector populations in a landscape. Gene flow correlates with the spread of epidemiologically relevant phenotypes among parasite and vector populations (e.g., virulence, drug and pesticide resistance), as well as invasion and re-invasion risk where parasite transmission is absent due to current or past intervention measures. However, the formal integration of spatial and genetic data ('landscape genetics') is scarcely ever applied to parasites. Here, we discuss the specific challenges and practical prospects for the use of landscape genetics and genomics to understand the biology and control of parasitic disease and present a practical framework for doing so. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SpatialEpiApp: A Shiny web application for the analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal disease data.

PubMed

Moraga, Paula

2017-11-01

During last years, public health surveillance has been facilitated by the existence of several packages implementing statistical methods for the analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal disease data. However, these methods are still inaccesible for many researchers lacking the adequate programming skills to effectively use the required software. In this paper we present SpatialEpiApp, a Shiny web application that integrate two of the most common approaches in health surveillance: disease mapping and detection of clusters. SpatialEpiApp is easy to use and does not require any programming knowledge. Given information about the cases, population and optionally covariates for each of the areas and dates of study, the application allows to fit Bayesian models to obtain disease risk estimates and their uncertainty by using R-INLA, and to detect disease clusters by using SaTScan. The application allows user interaction and the creation of interactive data visualizations and reports showing the analyses performed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Location of Road Emergency Stations in Fars Province, Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Making.

PubMed

Goli, Ali; Ansarizade, Najmeh; Barati, Omid; Kavosi, Zahra

2015-01-01

To locate the road emergency stations in Fars province based on using spatial multi-criteria decision making (Delphi method). In this study, the criteria affecting the location of road emergency stations have been identified through Delphi method and their importance was determined using Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP). With regard to the importance of the criteria and by using Geographical Information System (GIS), the appropriateness of the existing stations with the criteria and the way of their distribution has been explored, and the appropriate arenas for creating new emergency stations were determined. In order to investigate the spatial distribution pattern of the stations, Moran's Index was used. The accidents (0.318), placement position (0.235), time (0.198), roads (0.160), and population (0.079) were introduced as the main criteria in location road emergency stations. The findings showed that the distribution of the existing stations was clustering (Moran's I=0.3). Three priorities were introduced for establishing new stations. Some arenas including Abade, north of Eghlid and Khoram bid, and small parts of Shiraz, Farashband, Bavanat, and Kazeroon were suggested as the first priority. GIS is a useful and applicable tool in investigating spatial distribution and geographical accessibility to the setting that provide health care, including emergency stations.

River mainstem thermal regimes influence population structuring within an Appalachian brook trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aunins, Aaron W.; Petty, J. Todd; King, Timothy L.; Schilz, Mariya; Mazik, Patricia M.

2015-01-01

Brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) often exist as highly differentiated populations, even at small spatial scales, due either to natural or anthropogenic sources of isolation and low rates of dispersal. In this study, we used molecular approaches to describe the unique population structure of brook trout inhabiting the Shavers Fork watershed, located in eastern West Virginia, and contrast it to nearby populations in tributaries of the upper Greenbrier River and North Fork South Branch Potomac Rivers. Bayesian and maximum likelihood clustering methods identified minimal population structuring among 14 collections of brook trout from throughout the mainstem and tributaries of Shavers Fork, highlighting the role of the cold-water mainstem for connectivity and high rates of effective migration among tributaries. In contrast, the Potomac and Greenbrier River collections displayed distinct levels of population differentiation among tributaries, presumably resulting from tributary isolation by warm-water mainstems. Our results highlight the importance of protecting and restoring cold-water mainstem habitats as part of region-wide brook trout conservation efforts. In addition, our results from Shavers Fork provide a contrast to previous genetic studies that characterize Appalachian brook trout as fragmented isolates rather than well-mixed populations. Additional study is needed to determine whether the existence of brook trout as genetically similar populations among tributaries is truly unique and whether connectivity among brook trout populations can potentially be restored within other central Appalachian watersheds.

A Resolution to the Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) Population Paradox?

PubMed Central

Pointin, Fabien; Payne, Mark R.

2014-01-01

We provide the strongest evidence to date supporting the existence of two independent blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou (Risso, 1827)) populations in the North Atlantic. In spite of extensive data collected in conjunction with the fishery, the population structure of blue whiting is poorly understood. On one hand, genetic, morphometric, otolith and drift modelling studies point towards the existence of two populations, but, on the other hand, observations of adult distributions point towards a single population. A paradox therefore arises in attempting to reconcile these two sets of information. Here we analyse 1100 observations of blue whiting larvae from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) from 1948–2005 using modern statistical techniques. We show a clear spatial separation between a northern spawning area, in the Rockall Trough, and a southern one, off the Porcupine Seabight. We further show a difference in the timing of spawning between these sites of at least a month, and meaningful differences in interannual variability. The results therefore support the two-population hypothesis. Furthermore, we resolve the paradox by showing that the acoustic observations cited in support of the single-population model are not capable of resolving both populations, as they occur too late in the year and do not extend sufficiently far south to cover the southern population: the confusion is the result of a simple observational artefact. We conclude that blue whiting in the North Atlantic comprises two populations. PMID:25184302

Games among relatives revisited.

PubMed

Allen, Benjamin; Nowak, Martin A

2015-08-07

We present a simple model for the evolution of social behavior in family-structured, finite sized populations. Interactions are represented as evolutionary games describing frequency-dependent selection. Individuals interact more frequently with siblings than with members of the general population, as quantified by an assortment parameter r, which can be interpreted as "relatedness". Other models, mostly of spatially structured populations, have shown that assortment can promote the evolution of cooperation by facilitating interaction between cooperators, but this effect depends on the details of the evolutionary process. For our model, we find that sibling assortment promotes cooperation in stringent social dilemmas such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, but not necessarily in other situations. These results are obtained through straightforward calculations of changes in gene frequency. We also analyze our model using inclusive fitness. We find that the quantity of inclusive fitness does not exist for general games. For special games, where inclusive fitness exists, it provides less information than the straightforward analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wave of chaos in a spatial eco-epidemiological system: Generating realistic patterns of patchiness in rabbit-lynx dynamics.

PubMed

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita; Venkataraman, C; Madzvamuse, A

2016-11-01

In the present paper, we propose and analyze an eco-epidemiological model with diffusion to study the dynamics of rabbit populations which are consumed by lynx populations. Existence, boundedness, stability and bifurcation analyses of solutions for the proposed rabbit-lynx model are performed. Results show that in the presence of diffusion the model has the potential of exhibiting Turing instability. Numerical results (finite difference and finite element methods) reveal the existence of the wave of chaos and this appears to be a dominant mode of disease dispersal. We also show the mechanism of spatiotemporal pattern formation resulting from the Hopf bifurcation analysis, which can be a potential candidate for understanding the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of eco-epidemiological systems. Implications of the asymptotic transmission rate on disease eradication among rabbit population which in turn enhances the survival of Iberian lynx are discussed. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Roundtable on Urban Living Environment Research (RULER).

PubMed

Vlahov, David; Agarwal, Siddharth Raj; Buckley, Robert M; Caiaffa, Waleska Teixeira; Corvalan, Carlos F; Ezeh, Alex Chika; Finkelstein, Ruth; Friel, Sharon; Harpham, Trudy; Hossain, Maharufa; de Faria Leao, Beatriz; Mboup, Gora; Montgomery, Mark R; Netherland, Julie C; Ompad, Danielle C; Prasad, Amit; Quinn, Andrew T; Rothman, Alexander; Satterthwaite, David E; Stansfield, Sally; Watson, Vanessa J

2011-10-01

For 18 months in 2009-2010, the Rockefeller Foundation provided support to establish the Roundtable on Urban Living Environment Research (RULER). Composed of leading experts in population health measurement from a variety of disciplines, sectors, and continents, RULER met for the purpose of reviewing existing methods of measurement for urban health in the context of recent reports from UN agencies on health inequities in urban settings. The audience for this report was identified as international, national, and local governing bodies; civil society; and donor agencies. The goal of the report was to identify gaps in measurement that must be filled in order to assess and evaluate population health in urban settings, especially in informal settlements (or slums) in low- and middle-income countries. Care must be taken to integrate recommendations with existing platforms (e.g., Health Metrics Network, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) that could incorporate, mature, and sustain efforts to address these gaps and promote effective data for healthy urban management. RULER noted that these existing platforms focus primarily on health outcomes and systems, mainly at the national level. Although substantial reviews of health outcomes and health service measures had been conducted elsewhere, such reviews covered these in an aggregate and perhaps misleading way. For example, some spatial aspects of health inequities, such as those pointed to in the 2008 report from the WHO's Commission on the Social Determinants of Health, received limited attention. If RULER were to focus on health inequities in the urban environment, access to disaggregated data was a priority. RULER observed that some urban health metrics were already available, if not always appreciated and utilized in ongoing efforts (e.g., census data with granular data on households, water, and sanitation but with little attention paid to the spatial dimensions of these data). Other less obvious elements had not exploited the gains realized in spatial measurement technology and techniques (e.g., defining geographic and social urban informal settlement boundaries, classification of population-based amenities and hazards, and innovative spatial measurement of local governance for health). In summary, the RULER team identified three major areas for enhancing measurement to motivate action for urban health-namely, disaggregation of geographic areas for intra-urban risk assessment and action, measures for both social environment and governance, and measures for a better understanding of the implications of the physical (e.g., climate) and built environment for health. The challenge of addressing these elements in resource-poor settings was acknowledged, as was the intensely political nature of urban health metrics. The RULER team went further to identify existing global health metrics structures that could serve as platforms for more granular metrics specific for urban settings.

Spatial decision on allocating automated external defibrillators (AED) in communities by multi-criterion two-step floating catchment area (MC2SFCA).

PubMed

Lin, Bo-Cheng; Chen, Chao-Wen; Chen, Chien-Chou; Kuo, Chiao-Ling; Fan, I-Chun; Ho, Chi-Kung; Liu, I-Chuan; Chan, Ta-Chien

2016-05-25

The occurrence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a critical life-threatening event which frequently warrants early defibrillation with an automated external defibrillator (AED). The optimization of allocating a limited number of AEDs in various types of communities is challenging. We aimed to propose a two-stage modeling framework including spatial accessibility evaluation and priority ranking to identify the highest gaps between demand and supply for allocating AEDs. In this study, a total of 6135 OHCA patients were defined as demand, and the existing 476 publicly available AEDs locations and 51 emergency medical service (EMS) stations were defined as supply. To identify the demand for AEDs, Bayesian spatial analysis with the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method is applied to estimate the composite spatial risks from multiple factors. The population density, proportion of elderly people, and land use classifications are identified as risk factors. Then, the multi-criterion two-step floating catchment area (MC2SFCA) method is used to measure spatial accessibility of AEDs between the spatial risks and the supply of AEDs. Priority ranking is utilized for prioritizing deployment of AEDs among communities because of limited resources. Among 6135 OHCA patients, 56.85 % were older than 65 years old, and 79.04 % were in a residential area. The spatial distribution of OHCA incidents was found to be concentrated in the metropolitan area of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. According to the posterior mean estimated by INLA, the spatial effects including population density and proportion of elderly people, and land use classifications are positively associated with the OHCA incidence. Utilizing the MC2SFCA for spatial accessibility, we found that supply of AEDs is less than demand in most areas, especially in rural areas. Under limited resources, we identify priority places for deploying AEDs based on transportation time to the nearest hospital and population size of the communities. The proposed method will be beneficial for optimizing resource allocation while considering multiple local risks. The optimized deployment of AEDs can broaden EMS coverage and minimize the problems of the disparity in urban areas and the deficiency in rural areas.

Predicting intensity of white-tailed deer herbivory in the Central Appalachian Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kniowski, Andrew B.; Ford, W. Mark

2018-01-01

In eastern North America, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) can have profound influences on forest biodiversity and forest successional processes. Moderate to high deer populations in the central Appalachians have resulted in lower forest biodiversity. Legacy effects in some areas persist even following deer population reductions or declines. This has prompted managers to consider deer population management goals in light of policies designed to support conservation of biodiversity and forest regeneration while continuing to support ample recreational hunting opportunities. However, despite known relationships between herbivory intensity and biodiversity impact, little information exists on the predictability of herbivory intensity across the varied and spatially diverse habitat conditions of the central Appalachians. We examined the predictability of browsing rates across central Appalachian landscapes at four environmental scales: vegetative community characteristics, physical environment, habitat configuration, and local human and deer population demographics. In an information-theoretic approach, we found that a model fitting the number of stems browsed relative to local vegetation characteristics received most (62%) of the overall support of all tested models assessing herbivory impact. Our data suggest that deer herbivory responded most predictably to differences in vegetation quantity and type. No other spatial factors or demographic factors consistently affected browsing intensity. Because herbivory, vegetation communities, and productivity vary spatially, we suggest that effective broad-scale herbivory impact assessment should include spatially-balanced vegetation monitoring that accounts for regional differences in deer forage preference. Effective monitoring is necessary to avoid biodiversity impacts and deleterious changes in vegetation community composition that are difficult to reverse and/or may not be detected using traditional deer-density based management goals.

Study of the Relationships between the Spatial Extent of Surface Urban Heat Islands and Urban Characteristic Factors Based on Landsat ETM+ Data

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jinqu; Wang, Yunpeng

2008-01-01

Ten cities with different population and urban sizes located in the Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province, P.R. China were selected to study the relationships between the spatial extent of surface urban heat islands (SUHI) and five urban characteristic factors such as urban size, development area, water proportion, mean NDVI (Normalized Vegetation Index) and population density, etc. The spatial extent of SUHI was quantified by using the hot island area (HIA). All the cities are almost at the same latitude, showing similar climate and solar radiation, the influence of which could thus be eliminated during our computation and comparative study. The land surface temperatures (LST) were retrieved from the data of Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) band 6 using a mono-window algorithm. A variance-segmenting method was proposed to compute HIA for each city from the retrieved LST. Factors like urban size, development area and water proportion were extracted directly from the classification images of the same ETM+ data and the population density factor is from the official census. Correlation and regression analyses were performed to study the relationships between the HIA and the related factors, and the results show that HIA is highly correlated to urban size (r=0.95), population density (r=0.97) and development area (r=0.83) in this area. It was also proved that a weak negative correlation existed between HIA and both mean NDVI and water proportion for each city. Linear functions between HIA and its related factors were established, respectively. The HIA can reflect the spatial extent and magnitude of the surface urban heat island effect, and can be used as reference in the urban planning. PMID:27873939

Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one.

PubMed

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

2015-01-26

Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules.

Does Land Degradation Increase Poverty in Developing Countries?

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Land degradation is a global problem that particularly impacts the poor rural inhabitants of low and middle-income countries. We improve upon existing literature by estimating the extent of rural populations in 2000 and 2010 globally on degrading and improving agricultural land, taking into account the role of market access, and analyzing the resulting impacts on poverty. Using a variety of spatially referenced datasets, we estimate that 1.33 billion people worldwide in 2000 were located on degrading agricultural land (DAL), of which 1.26 billion were in developing countries. Almost all the world’s 200 million people on remote DAL were in developing countries, which is about 6% of their rural population. There were also 1.54 billion rural people on improving agricultural land (IAL), with 1.34 billion in developing countries. We find that a lower share of people in 2000 on DAL, or a higher share on IAL, lowers significantly how much overall economic growth reduces poverty from 2000 to 2012 across 83 developing countries. As the population on DAL and IAL in developing countries grew by 13% and 15% respectively from 2000 to 2010, these changing spatial distributions of rural populations could impact significantly future poverty in developing countries. PMID:27167738

Spatial association of public sports facilities with body mass index in Korea.

PubMed

Han, Eun Jin; Kang, Kiyeon; Sohn, So Young

2018-05-07

Governments and also local councils create and enforce their own regional public health care plans for the problem of overweight and obesity in the population. Public sports facilities can help these plans. In this paper, we investigated the contribution of public sports facilities to the reduction of the obesity of local residents. We used the data obtained from the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys; and measured the degree of obesity using body mass index (BMI). We conducted various spatial regression analyses including the global Moran's I test and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation analysis finding that there exists spatial dependence in the error term of spatial regression model for BMI. However, we also observed that the number of local public sports facilities is not significantly related to local BMI. This result can be caused by the low utilization ratio and an unbalanced spatial distribution of local public sports facilities. Based on our findings, we suggest that local councils need to improve the quality of public sports facilities encouraging the establishment of preferred types of pubic sports facilities.

Using the Fusion Proximal Area Method and Gravity Method to Identify Areas with Physician Shortages

PubMed Central

Xiong, Xuechen; Jin, Chao; Chen, Haile; Luo, Li

2016-01-01

Objectives This paper presents a geographic information system (GIS)-based proximal area method and gravity method for identifying areas with physician shortages. The innovation of this paper is that it uses the appropriate methods to discover each type of health resource and then integrates all these methods to assess spatial access to health resources using population distribution data. In this way, spatial access to health resources for an entire city can be visualized in one neat package, which can help health policy makers quickly comprehend realistic distributions of health resources at a macro level. Methods First, classify health resources according to the trade areas of the patients they serve. Second, apply an appropriate method to each different type of health resource to measure spatial access to those resources. Third, integrate all types of access using population distribution data. Results In case study of Shanghai with the fusion method, areas with physician shortages are located primarily in suburban districts, especially in district junction areas. The result suggests that the government of Shanghai should pay more attention to these areas by investing in new or relocating existing health resources. Conclusion The fusion method is demonstrated to be more accurate and practicable than using a single method to assess spatial access to health resources. PMID:27695105

Transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

PubMed

Yang, Wan; Zhang, Wenyi; Kargbo, David; Yang, Ruifu; Chen, Yong; Chen, Zeliang; Kamara, Abdul; Kargbo, Brima; Kandula, Sasikiran; Karspeck, Alicia; Liu, Chao; Shaman, Jeffrey

2015-11-06

Understanding the growth and spatial expansion of (re)emerging infectious disease outbreaks, such as Ebola and avian influenza, is critical for the effective planning of control measures; however, such efforts are often compromised by data insufficiencies and observational errors. Here, we develop a spatial-temporal inference methodology using a modified network model in conjunction with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, a Bayesian inference method equipped to handle observational errors. The combined method is capable of revealing the spatial-temporal progression of infectious disease, while requiring only limited, readily compiled data. We use this method to reconstruct the transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone and identify source and sink regions. Our inference suggests that, in Sierra Leone, transmission within the network introduced Ebola to neighbouring districts and initiated self-sustaining local epidemics; two of the more populous and connected districts, Kenema and Port Loko, facilitated two independent transmission pathways. Epidemic intensity differed by district, was highly correlated with population size (r = 0.76, p = 0.0015) and a critical window of opportunity for containing local Ebola epidemics at the source (ca one month) existed. This novel methodology can be used to help identify and contain the spatial expansion of future (re)emerging infectious disease outbreaks. © 2015 The Author(s).

Environmental Health Related Socio-Spatial Inequalities: Identifying “Hotspots” of Environmental Burdens and Social Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Rehana; Flacke, Johannes; Martinez, Javier; van Maarseveen, Martin

2016-01-01

Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as “hotspots”. This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified “hotspot” areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = −0.020 at p < 0.05). At the detailed intra-urban level, however, inequalities showed strong geographical patterns. Large numbers of “hotspots” exist in the northern part of the city compared to the southern part. A holistic assessment, particularly at a detailed local level, considering both environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across the population with the different vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating “hotspot” areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment. PMID:27409625

Habitat fragmentation caused by contaminants: Atrazine as a chemical barrier isolating fish populations.

PubMed

Araújo, Cristiano V M; Silva, Daniel C V R; Gomes, Luiz E T; Acayaba, Raphael D; Montagner, Cassiana C; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Ribeiro, Rui; Pompêo, Marcelo L M

2018-02-01

Information on how atrazine can affect the spatial distribution of organisms is non-existent. As this effect has been observed for some other contaminants, we hypothesized that atrazine-containing leachates/discharges could trigger spatial avoidance by the fish Poecilia reticulata and form a chemical barrier isolating upstream and downstream populations. Firstly, guppies were exposed to an atrazine gradient in a non-forced exposure system, in which organisms moved freely among the concentrations, to assess their ability to avoid atrazine. Secondly, a chemical barrier formed by atrazine, separating two clean habitats (extremities of the non-forced system), was simulated to assess whether the presence of the contaminant could prevent guppies from migrating to the other side of the system. Fish were able to avoid atrazine contamination at environmentally relevant concentrations (0.02 μg L -1 ), below those described to cause sub-lethal effects. The AC 50 (atrazine concentration causing avoidance to 50% of the population) was 0.065 μg L -1 . The chemical barrier formed by atrazine at 150 μg L -1 (concentration that should produce an avoidance around 82%) caused a reduction in the migratory potential of the fish by 47%; while the chemical barrier at 1058 μg L -1 (concentration that produces torpidity) caused a reduction in the migratory potential of the fish by 91%. Contamination by atrazine, besides driving the spatial distribution of fish populations, has potential to act as a chemical barrier by isolating fish populations. This study includes a novel approach to be integrated in environmental risk assessment schemes to assess high-tier contamination effects such as habitat fragmentation and population displacement and isolation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial capture-recapture models for search-encounter data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, Marc; Guelat, Jerome

2011-01-01

1. Spatial capture–recapture models make use of auxiliary data on capture location to provide density estimates for animal populations. Previously, models have been developed primarily for fixed trap arrays which define the observable locations of individuals by a set of discrete points. 2. Here, we develop a class of models for 'search-encounter' data, i.e. for detections of recognizable individuals in continuous space, not restricted to trap locations. In our hierarchical model, detection probability is related to the average distance between individual location and the survey path. The locations are allowed to change over time owing to movements of individuals, and individual locations are related formally by a model describing individual activity or home range centre which is itself regarded as a latent variable in the model. We provide a Bayesian analysis of the model in WinBUGS, and develop a custom MCMC algorithm in the R language. 3. The model is applied to simulated data and to territory mapping data for the Willow Tit from the Swiss Breeding Bird Survey MHB. While the observed density was 15 territories per nominal 1 km2 plot of unknown effective sample area, the model produced a density estimate of 21∙12 territories per square km (95% posterior interval: 17–26). 4. Spatial capture–recapture models are relevant to virtually all animal population studies that seek to estimate population size or density, yet existing models have been proposed mainly for conventional sampling using arrays of traps. Our model for search-encounter data, where the spatial pattern of searching can be arbitrary and may change over occasions, greatly expands the scope and utility of spatial capture–recapture models.

Geothermal development in southwest Idaho: the socioeconomic data base

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, S.G.; Russell, B.F.

This report inventories, analyzes, and appraises the exiting socioeconomic data base for the ten counties in southwest Idaho that would be impacted by any significant geothermal development. The inventory describes key sociological demographic, and economic characteristics, and presents spatial boundaries, housing data, and projections of population and economic activity for the counties. The inventory identifies the significant gaps in the existing data base and makes recommendations for future research.

Cancer mortality rates and spillover effects among different areas: A case study in Campania (southern Italy).

PubMed

Agovino, Massimiliano; Aprile, Maria Carmela; Garofalo, Antonio; Mariani, Angela

2018-05-01

The present study analyses the spatial distribution of cancer mortality rates in Campania (an Italian region with the highest population density), in which residents in several areas are exposed to major environmental health hazards. The paper has the methodological aims of verifying the existence, or otherwise, of a spatial correlation between mortality from different types of cancer and the occurrence of some specific area characteristics, using both Bayesian statistics and spatial econometrics. We show that the use of the Spatial Empirical Bayes Smoothed Rate, instead of the more commonly used Raw Rate, allows a more comprehensive analysis of the mortality rate, highlighting the existence of different cluster sizes throughout the region, according to the type of cancer mortality rate analysed. By using a Spatial Durbin model we verify that cancer mortality rates are related to the environmental characteristics of specific areas with spatial spillover effects. Our results validate the hypothesis that living along the coast by Mt Vesuvius and, to a lesser extent, along the Domitio-Flegreo coast NW of Naples and in more urbanised municipalities, increases the risk of dying of cancer. By contrast, living in less urbanised municipalities, with the presence of natural and historical attractions, has a positive effect on the residents' health, reducing their risk of disease. In both cases significant spillover effects (negative and positive) are found in municipalities close to the areas in question. Despite a number of reasonable limitations, our findings may provide useful information support for policy makers to foster knowledge, awareness and informed participation of citizens. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relations between nature-based solutions of green-blue area accessibility and socio-economic-ethnic patterns in the urban Stockholm region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Destouni, Georgia

2017-04-01

More than half of the world's population lives in cities, a proportion expected to increase to two thirds by 2050 (United Nations (UN), 2015). In this study, we investigate the spatial relationships that may exist between income and/or nationality homogeneity/heterogeneity levels of urban populations and their accessibility to local green-blue areas as possible nature-based solutions for sustainable urban design. For this investigation, we consider as a concrete case study the urban region of Stockholm, Sweden, for which we compile and use available land-cover and vegetation density data (the latter in terms of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) in order to identify and assess the spatial distributions of various green-blue area types and aspects. We further combine this data with spatial distribution data for population density, income and nationality, as well as with road-network data for assessing population travel times to nearby green-blue areas within the region. The present study results converge with those of other recent studies in showing large socio-economic-ethnic segregation in the Stockholm region. Moreover, the present data combination and analysis also show large spatial differences in and important socio-economic-ethnic correlations with accessibility to local green areas and nearby water bodies. Specifically, population income and share of Swedish nationals are well correlated in this region, with increases in both of these variables implying greater possibility to choose where to live within the region. The living choices of richer and more homogeneous (primarily Swedish) population parts are then found to be areas with greater local vegetation density (local green areas as identified by high-resolution NDVI data) and greater area extent of nearby water bodies (blue areas). For comparison, no such correlation is found between increased income or Swedish nationality homogeneity and accessibility to nearby forest areas (overall green area extent) or built facilities for recreation and sports. The found living choice correlations point at the importance of green-blue area parts as possible nature-based solutions in urban design and planning, with potential to improve wellbeing and social sustainability for the whole urban population and not just its rich component.

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

PubMed

Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

2014-11-11

During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

PubMed Central

Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Jeffrey D.; Moses, Alissa; Burcsu, Theresa

2010-05-01

Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.

Factors Related to Spatial Patterns of Rural Land Fragmentation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjelland, Michael E.; Kreuter, Urs P.; Clendenin, George A.; Wilkins, R. Neal; Wu, X. Ben; Afanador, Edith Gonzalez; Grant, William E.

2007-08-01

Fragmentation of family-owned farms and ranches has been identified as the greatest single threat to wildlife habitat, water supply, and the long-term viability of agriculture in Texas. However, an integrative framework for insights into the pathways of land use change has been lacking. The specific objectives of the study are to test the hypotheses that the nonagricultural value (NAV) of rural land is a reliable indicator of trends in land fragmentation and that NAV in Texas is spatially correlated with population density, and to explore the idea that recent changes in property size patterns are better represented by a categorical model than by one that reflects incremental changes. We propose that the State-and-Transition model, developed to describe the dynamics of semi-arid ecosystems, provides an appropriate conceptual framework for characterizing categorical shifts in rural property patterns. Results suggest that changes in population density are spatially correlated with NAV and farm size, and that rural property size is spatially correlated with changes in NAV. With increasing NAV, the proportion of large properties tends to decrease while the area represented by small properties tends to increase. Although a correlation exists between NAV and population density, it is the trend in NAV that appears to be a stronger predictor of land fragmentation. The empirical relationships established herein, viewed within the conceptual framework of the State-and-Transition model, can provide a useful tool for evaluating land use policies for maintaining critical ecosystem services delivered from privately owned land in private land states, such as Texas.

Statistical Analysis of 3D Images Detects Regular Spatial Distributions of Centromeres and Chromocenters in Animal and Plant Nuclei

PubMed Central

Biot, Eric; Adenot, Pierre-Gaël; Hue-Beauvais, Cathy; Houba-Hérin, Nicole; Duranthon, Véronique; Devinoy, Eve; Beaujean, Nathalie; Gaudin, Valérie; Maurin, Yves; Debey, Pascale

2010-01-01

In eukaryotes, the interphase nucleus is organized in morphologically and/or functionally distinct nuclear “compartments”. Numerous studies highlight functional relationships between the spatial organization of the nucleus and gene regulation. This raises the question of whether nuclear organization principles exist and, if so, whether they are identical in the animal and plant kingdoms. We addressed this issue through the investigation of the three-dimensional distribution of the centromeres and chromocenters. We investigated five very diverse populations of interphase nuclei at different differentiation stages in their physiological environment, belonging to rabbit embryos at the 8-cell and blastocyst stages, differentiated rabbit mammary epithelial cells during lactation, and differentiated cells of Arabidopsis thaliana plantlets. We developed new tools based on the processing of confocal images and a new statistical approach based on G- and F- distance functions used in spatial statistics. Our original computational scheme takes into account both size and shape variability by comparing, for each nucleus, the observed distribution against a reference distribution estimated by Monte-Carlo sampling over the same nucleus. This implicit normalization allowed similar data processing and extraction of rules in the five differentiated nuclei populations of the three studied biological systems, despite differences in chromosome number, genome organization and heterochromatin content. We showed that centromeres/chromocenters form significantly more regularly spaced patterns than expected under a completely random situation, suggesting that repulsive constraints or spatial inhomogeneities underlay the spatial organization of heterochromatic compartments. The proposed technique should be useful for identifying further spatial features in a wide range of cell types. PMID:20628576

Spatial differences and temporal changes in illicit drug use in Europe quantified by wastewater analysis.

PubMed

Ort, Christoph; van Nuijs, Alexander L N; Berset, Jean-Daniel; Bijlsma, Lubertus; Castiglioni, Sara; Covaci, Adrian; de Voogt, Pim; Emke, Erik; Fatta-Kassinos, Despo; Griffiths, Paul; Hernández, Félix; González-Mariño, Iria; Grabic, Roman; Kasprzyk-Hordern, Barbara; Mastroianni, Nicola; Meierjohann, Axel; Nefau, Thomas; Ostman, Marcus; Pico, Yolanda; Racamonde, Ines; Reid, Malcolm; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Terzic, Senka; Thomaidis, Nikolaos; Thomas, Kevin V

2014-08-01

To perform wastewater analyses to assess spatial differences and temporal changes of illicit drug use in a large European population. Analyses of raw wastewater over a 1-week period in 2012 and 2013. Catchment areas of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) across Europe, as follows: 2012: 25 WWTPs in 11 countries (23 cities, total population 11.50 million); 2013: 47 WWTPs in 21 countries (42 cities, total population 24.74 million). Excretion products of five illicit drugs (cocaine, amphetamine, ecstasy, methamphetamine, cannabis) were quantified in wastewater samples using methods based on liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Spatial differences were assessed and confirmed to vary greatly across European metropolitan areas. In general, results were in agreement with traditional surveillance data, where available. While temporal changes were substantial in individual cities and years (P ranging from insignificant to <10(-3) ), overall means were relatively stable. The overall mean of methamphetamine was an exception (apparent decline in 2012), as it was influenced mainly by four cities. Wastewater analysis performed across Europe provides complementary evidence on illicit drug consumption and generally concurs with traditional surveillance data. Wastewater analysis can measure total illicit drug use more quickly and regularly than is the current norm for national surveys, and creates estimates where such data does not exist. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

The Heat Exposure Integrated Deprivation Index (HEIDI): A data-driven approach to quantifying neighborhood risk during extreme hot weather.

PubMed

Krstic, Nikolas; Yuchi, Weiran; Ho, Hung Chak; Walker, Blake B; Knudby, Anders J; Henderson, Sarah B

2017-12-01

Mortality attributable to extreme hot weather is a growing concern in many urban environments, and spatial heat vulnerability indexes are often used to identify areas at relatively higher and lower risk. Three indexes were developed for greater Vancouver, Canada using a pool of 20 potentially predictive variables categorized to reflect social vulnerability, population density, temperature exposure, and urban form. One variable was chosen from each category: an existing deprivation index, senior population density, apparent temperature, and road density, respectively. The three indexes were constructed from these variables using (1) unweighted, (2) weighted, and (3) data-driven Heat Exposure Integrated Deprivation Index (HEIDI) approaches. The performance of each index was assessed using mortality data from 1998-2014, and the maps were compared with respect to spatial patterns identified. The population-weighted spatial correlation between the three indexes ranged from 0.68-0.89. The HEIDI approach produced a graduated map of vulnerability, whereas the other approaches primarily identified areas of highest risk. All indexes performed best under extreme temperatures, but HEIDI was more useful at lower thresholds. Each of the indexes in isolation provides valuable information for public health protection, but combining the HEIDI approach with unweighted and weighted methods provides richer information about areas most vulnerable to heat. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Spatial differences and temporal changes in illicit drug use in Europe quantified by wastewater analysis

PubMed Central

Ort, Christoph; van Nuijs, Alexander L N; Berset, Jean-Daniel; Bijlsma, Lubertus; Castiglioni, Sara; Covaci, Adrian; de Voogt, Pim; Emke, Erik; Fatta-Kassinos, Despo; Griffiths, Paul; Hernández, Félix; González-Mariño, Iria; Grabic, Roman; Kasprzyk-Hordern, Barbara; Mastroianni, Nicola; Meierjohann, Axel; Nefau, Thomas; Östman, Marcus; Pico, Yolanda; Racamonde, Ines; Reid, Malcolm; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Terzic, Senka; Thomaidis, Nikolaos; Thomas, Kevin V

2014-01-01

Aims To perform wastewater analyses to assess spatial differences and temporal changes of illicit drug use in a large European population. Design Analyses of raw wastewater over a 1-week period in 2012 and 2013. Setting and Participants Catchment areas of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) across Europe, as follows: 2012: 25 WWTPs in 11 countries (23 cities, total population 11.50 million); 2013: 47 WWTPs in 21 countries (42 cities, total population 24.74 million). Measurements Excretion products of five illicit drugs (cocaine, amphetamine, ecstasy, methamphetamine, cannabis) were quantified in wastewater samples using methods based on liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Findings Spatial differences were assessed and confirmed to vary greatly across European metropolitan areas. In general, results were in agreement with traditional surveillance data, where available. While temporal changes were substantial in individual cities and years (P ranging from insignificant to <10−3), overall means were relatively stable. The overall mean of methamphetamine was an exception (apparent decline in 2012), as it was influenced mainly by four cities. Conclusions Wastewater analysis performed across Europe provides complementary evidence on illicit drug consumption and generally concurs with traditional surveillance data. Wastewater analysis can measure total illicit drug use more quickly and regularly than is the current norm for national surveys, and creates estimates where such data does not exist. PMID:24861844

Natural image sequences constrain dynamic receptive fields and imply a sparse code.

PubMed

Häusler, Chris; Susemihl, Alex; Nawrot, Martin P

2013-11-06

In their natural environment, animals experience a complex and dynamic visual scenery. Under such natural stimulus conditions, neurons in the visual cortex employ a spatially and temporally sparse code. For the input scenario of natural still images, previous work demonstrated that unsupervised feature learning combined with the constraint of sparse coding can predict physiologically measured receptive fields of simple cells in the primary visual cortex. This convincingly indicated that the mammalian visual system is adapted to the natural spatial input statistics. Here, we extend this approach to the time domain in order to predict dynamic receptive fields that can account for both spatial and temporal sparse activation in biological neurons. We rely on temporal restricted Boltzmann machines and suggest a novel temporal autoencoding training procedure. When tested on a dynamic multi-variate benchmark dataset this method outperformed existing models of this class. Learning features on a large dataset of natural movies allowed us to model spatio-temporal receptive fields for single neurons. They resemble temporally smooth transformations of previously obtained static receptive fields and are thus consistent with existing theories. A neuronal spike response model demonstrates how the dynamic receptive field facilitates temporal and population sparseness. We discuss the potential mechanisms and benefits of a spatially and temporally sparse representation of natural visual input. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-01-01

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

The role of egocentric and allocentric abilities in Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review.

PubMed

Serino, Silvia; Cipresso, Pietro; Morganti, Francesca; Riva, Giuseppe

2014-07-01

A great effort has been made to identify crucial cognitive markers that can be used to characterize the cognitive profile of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Because topographical disorientation is one of the earliest clinical manifestation of AD, an increasing number of studies have investigated the spatial deficits in this clinical population. In this systematic review, we specifically focused on experimental studies investigating allocentric and egocentric deficits to understand which spatial cognitive processes are differentially impaired in the different stages of the disease. First, our results highlighted that spatial deficits appear in the earliest stages of the disease. Second, a need for a more ecological assessment of spatial functions will be presented. Third, our analysis suggested that a prevalence of allocentric impairment exists. Specifically, two selected studies underlined that a more specific impairment is found in the translation between the egocentric and allocentric representations. In this perspective, the implications for future research and neurorehabilitative interventions will be discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Congruent population structure inferred from dispersal behaviour and intensive genetic surveys of the threatened Florida scrub-jay (Aphelocoma cœrulescens)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coulon, A.; Fitzpatrick, J.W.; Bowman, R.; Stith, B.M.; Makarewich, C.A.; Stenzler, L.M.; Lovette, I.J.

2008-01-01

The delimitation of populations, defined as groups of individuals linked by gene flow, is possible by the analysis of genetic markers and also by spatial models based on dispersal probabilities across a landscape. We combined these two complimentary methods to define the spatial pattern of genetic structure among remaining populations of the threatened Florida scrub-jay, a species for which dispersal ability is unusually well-characterized. The range-wide population was intensively censused in the 1990s, and a metapopulation model defined population boundaries based on predicted dispersal-mediated demographic connectivity. We subjected genotypes from more than 1000 individual jays screened at 20 microsatellite loci to two Bayesian clustering methods. We describe a consensus method for identifying common features across many replicated clustering runs. Ten genetically differentiated groups exist across the present-day range of the Florida scrub-jay. These groups are largely consistent with the dispersal-defined metapopulations, which assume very limited dispersal ability. Some genetic groups comprise more than one metapopulation, likely because these genetically similar metapopulations were sundered only recently by habitat alteration. The combined reconstructions of population structure based on genetics and dispersal-mediated demographic connectivity provide a robust depiction of the current genetic and demographic organization of this species, reflecting past and present levels of dispersal among occupied habitat patches. The differentiation of populations into 10 genetic groups adds urgency to management efforts aimed at preserving what remains of genetic variation in this dwindling species, by maintaining viable populations of all genetically differentiated and geographically isolated populations.

Distance to human populations influences epidemiology of respiratory disease in desert tortoises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berry, Kristin H.; Ashley A. Coble (formerly Emerson), no longer USGS; Yee, Julie L.; Mack, Jeremy S.; Perry, William M.; Anderson, Kemp M.; Brown, Mary B.

2014-01-01

We explored variables likely to affect health of Agassiz's desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a 1,183-km2 study area in the central Mojave Desert of California between 2005 and 2008. We evaluated 1,004 tortoises for prevalence and spatial distribution of 2 pathogens, Mycoplasma agassizii and M. testudineum, that cause upper respiratory tract disease. We defined tortoises as test-positive if they were positive by culture and/or DNA identification or positive or suspect for specific antibody for either of the two pathogens. We used covariates of habitat (vegetation, elevation, slope, and aspect), tortoise size and sex, distance from another test-positive tortoise, and anthropogenic variables (distances to roads, agricultural areas, playas, urban areas, and centroids of human-populated census blocks). We used both logistic regression models and regression trees to evaluate the 2 species of Mycoplasma separately. The prevalence of test-positive tortoises was low: 1.49% (15/1,004) for M. agassizii and 2.89% (29/1,004) for M. testudineum. The spatial distributions of test-positive tortoises for the 2 Mycoplasma species showed little overlap; only 2 tortoises were test-positive for both diseases. However, the spatial distributions did not differ statistically between the 2 species. We consistently found higher prevalence of test-positive tortoises with shorter distances to centroids of human-populated census blocks. The relationship between distance to human-populated census blocks and tortoises that are test-positive for M. agassizii and potentially M. testudineum may be related to release or escape of captive tortoises because the prevalence of M. agassizii in captive tortoises is high. Our findings have application to other species of chelonians where both domestic captive and wild populations exist. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

PubMed

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

2017-07-07

We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Spatial associations between social groups and ozone air pollution exposure in the Beijing urban area.

PubMed

Zhao, Xinyi; Cheng, Hongguang; He, Siyuan; Cui, Xiangfen; Pu, Xiao; Lu, Lu

2018-07-01

Few studies have linked social factors to air pollution exposure in China. Unlike the race or minority concepts in western countries, the Hukou system (residential registration system) is a fundamental reason for the existence of social deprivation in China. To assess the differences in ozone (O 3 ) exposure among social groups, especially groups divided by Hukou status, we assigned estimates of O 3 exposure to the latest census data of the Beijing urban area using a kriging interpolation model. We developed simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models that account for spatial autocorrelation to identify the associations between O 3 exposure and social factors. Principal component regression was used to control the multicollinearity bias as well as explore the spatial structure of the social data. The census tracts (CTs) with higher proportions of persons living alone and migrants with non-local Hukou were characterized by greater exposure to ambient O 3 . The areas with greater proportions of seniors had lower O 3 exposure. The spatial distribution patterns were similar among variables including migrants, agricultural population and household separation (population status with separation between Hukou and actual residences), which fit the demographic characteristics of the majority of migrants. Migrants bore a double burden of social deprivation and O 3 pollution exposure due to city development planning and the Hukou system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of a bus network in access to primary health care in Metropolitan Auckland, New Zealand.

PubMed

Rocha, C M; McGuire, S; Whyman, R; Kruger, E; Tennant, M

2015-09-01

Background: This study examined the spatial accessibility of the population of metropolitan Auckland, New Zealand to the bus network, to connect them to primary health providers, in this case doctors (GP) and dentists. Analysis of accessibility by ethnic identity and socio-economic status were also carried out, because of existing health inequalities along these dimensions. The underlying hypothesis was that most people would live within easy reach of primary health providers, or easy bus transport to such providers. An integrated geographic model of bus transport routes and stops, with population and primary health providers (medical. and dental practices) was developed and analysed. Although the network of buses in metropolitan Auckland is substantial and robust it was evident that many people live more than 150 metres from a stop. Improving the access to bus stops, particularly in areas of high primary health care need (doctors and dentists), would certainly be an opportunity to enhance spatial access in a growing metropolitan area.

Incorporating precision, accuracy and alternative sampling designs into a continental monitoring program for colonial waterbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinkamp, Melanie J.; Peterjohn, B.G.; Keisman, J.L.

2003-01-01

A comprehensive monitoring program for colonial waterbirds in North America has never existed. At smaller geographic scales, many states and provinces conduct surveys of colonial waterbird populations. Periodic regional surveys are conducted at varying times during the breeding season using a variety of survey methods, which complicates attempts to estimate population trends for most species. The US Geological Survey Patuxent Wildlife Research Center has recently started to coordinate colonial waterbird monitoring efforts throughout North America. A centralized database has been developed with an Internet-based data entry and retrieval page. The extent of existing colonial waterbird surveys has been defined, allowing gaps in coverage to be identified and basic inventories completed where desirable. To enable analyses of comparable data at regional or larger geographic scales, sampling populations through statistically sound sampling designs should supersede obtaining counts at every colony. Standardized breeding season survey techniques have been agreed upon and documented in a monitoring manual. Each survey in the manual has associated with it recommendations for bias estimation, and includes specific instructions on measuring detectability. The methods proposed in the manual are for developing reliable, comparable indices of population size to establish trend information at multiple spatial and temporal scales, but they will not result in robust estimates of total population numbers.

Lack of spatial genetic structure among nesting and wintering King Eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, J.M.; Talbot, S.L.; Pierson, Barbara J.; Petersen, M.R.; Scribner, K.T.; Dickson, D.L.; Mosbech, A.

2004-01-01

The King Eider (Somateria spectabilis) has been delineated into two broadly distributed breeding populations in North America (the western and eastern Arctic) on the basis of banding data and their use of widely separated Pacific and Atlantic wintering areas. Little is known about the level of gene flow between these two populations. Also unknown is whether behavioral patterns common among migratory waterfowl, such as site fidelity to wintering areas and pair formation at these sites, have existed for sufficient time to create a population structure defined by philopatry to wintering rather than to nesting locations. We used six nuclear microsatellite DNA loci and cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA sequence data to estimate the extent of spatial genetic differentiation among nesting and wintering areas of King Eiders across North America and adjacent regions. Estimates of interpopulation variance in microsatellite allele and mtDNA haplotype frequency were both low and nonsignificant based on samples from three wintering and four nesting areas. Results from nested clade analysis, mismatch distributions, and coalescent-based analyses suggest historical population growth and gene flow that collectively may have homogenized gene frequencies. The presence of several unique mtDNA haplotypes among birds wintering near Greenland suggests that gene flow may now be more limited between the western and eastern Arctic, which is consistent with banding data.

Significant genetic boundaries and spatial dynamics of giant pandas occupying fragmented habitat across southwest China.

PubMed

Zhu, Lifeng; Zhang, Shanning; Gu, Xiaodong; Wei, Fuwen

2011-03-01

Understanding population history and genetic structure are key drivers of ecological research. Here, we studied two highly fragmented and isolated populations (Xiaoxiangling and Daxiangling) of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This area also contains the Dadu River, national road 108 and various human infrastructure and development, providing an ideal region in which we can identify the effects of different barriers on animal movements. We used partial mitochondrial control region (mtDNA) and nine microsatellite loci (nuclear DNA) data derived from 192 faecal and one blood sample collected from the wild. We found 136 genotypes corresponding to 53 unique multilocus genotypes and eight unique control region haplotypes (653 bp). Significant genetic boundaries correlated spatially with the Dadu River (K = 2). We estimate that a major divergence took place between these populations 26,000 years bp, at around the similar time the rock surface of valley bottom formed in Dadu River. The national road has resulted in further recent population differentiation (Pairwise F(S) on mtDNA and nuclear DNA) so that in effect, four smaller sub-populations now exist. Promisingly, we identified two possible first-generation migrants and their migration paths, and recommended the immediate construction of a number of corridors. Fortunately, the Chinese government has accepted our advice and is now planning corridor construction. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mapping migratory flyways in Asia using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models.

PubMed

Palm, Eric C; Newman, Scott H; Prosser, Diann J; Xiao, Xiangming; Ze, Luo; Batbayar, Nyambayar; Balachandran, Sivananinthaperumal; Takekawa, John Y

2015-01-01

Identifying movement routes and stopover sites is necessary for developing effective management and conservation strategies for migratory animals. In the case of migratory birds, a collection of migration routes, known as a flyway, is often hundreds to thousands of kilometers long and can extend across political boundaries. Flyways encompass the entire geographic range between the breeding and non-breeding areas of a population, species, or a group of species, and they provide spatial frameworks for management and conservation across international borders. Existing flyway maps are largely qualitative accounts based on band returns and survey data rather than observed movement routes. In this study, we use satellite and GPS telemetry data and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to build upon existing maps and describe waterfowl space use probabilistically in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. Our approach provided new information on migratory routes that was not easily attainable with existing methods to describe flyways. Utilization distributions from dynamic Brownian bridge movement models identified key staging and stopover sites, migration corridors and general flyway outlines in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. A map of space use from ruddy shelducks depicted two separate movement corridors within the Central Asian Flyway, likely representing two distinct populations that show relatively strong connectivity between breeding and wintering areas. Bar-headed geese marked at seven locations in the Central Asian Flyway showed heaviest use at several stopover sites in the same general region of high-elevation lakes along the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our analysis of data from multiple Anatidae species marked at sites throughout Asia highlighted major movement corridors across species and confirmed that the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways were spatially distinct. The dynamic Brownian bridge movement model improves our understanding of flyways by estimating relative use of regions in the flyway while providing detailed, quantitative information on migration timing and population connectivity including uncertainty between locations. This model effectively quantifies the relative importance of different migration corridors and stopover sites and may help prioritize specific areas in flyways for conservation of waterbird populations.

Development and testing of an assessment to measure spatial thinking about enhanced greenhouse effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaza, Heather Jean

Americans, in general, do not behave in environmentally sustainable ways. We drive cars and fly in planes that emit planet-warming carbon. We purchase food in nearly indestructible packaging that is not recycled or repurposed. We do not consider the environmental impact of the "stuff" stuffed into our grocery and department stores, most of which is made of materials that had to be dug out of the ground, leaving rivers and skies full of pollution in its place. Citizens have a responsibility to understand complex global and local environmental problems. A person's ability to think about the way that an environmental problem they are tasked with understanding changes over time and space can better prepare them to make sustainable decisions in the face of this complexity. Spatial thinking serves the learner's ability to understand the impact of environmental actions and should be given a consistent place in environmental education. Teaching practices and pedagogies that focus on spatial thinking are necessary to learners' success. In order to know if these strategies are successful, educators need an assessment tool that targets the spatial thinking skills necessary to understanding environmental problems. This dissertation project used a models and modeling theoretical framework to develop and test an assessment of students' spatial thinking abilities related to the environmental problem of enhanced greenhouse effect. This assessment was developed from a review of existing spatial thinking literature, research on existing assessments of spatial thinking abilities, and existing assessment of enhanced greenhouse effect. In addition, I interviewed and surveyed experts in science, math, and environmental education to elicit their perspectives on the spatial thinking skills necessary for learners to understand enhanced greenhouse effect. All of this information was synthesized into 14 Central Concepts of spatial thinking for enhanced greenhouse effect. The assessment was developed for students to express their mental models related to these 14 Central Concepts. The assessment was reviewed and tested by experts related to the project's content, as well as students from the target population for assessment delivery. It was revised based on feedback and data collect from these groups. Here I describe my findings, that students are more proficient at modeling simple spatial relationships, one at a time, than modeling more complex relationships; that students understand human-scale spatial relationships related to enhanced greenhouse effect better than very small or very large ones; and that students can associate and correlate spatially distributed features and phenomena to describe enhanced greenhouse effect. Finally, I describe the ways in which student and expert feedback has informed not only revisions of this assessment specifically, but also to the assessment development process, for better assessment design, when spatial thinking assessments related to other environmental problems are developed in the future.

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Forchhammer, Mads C

2004-06-22

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk.

Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaak, Daniel J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Wenger, Seth J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Sowder, Colin; Steel, E. Ashley; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordan, Chris E.; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Som, Nicholas; Monestiez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for terrestrial applications and are not optimized for streams. A new class of spatial statistical model, based on valid covariance structures for stream networks, can be used with many common types of stream data (e.g., water quality attributes, habitat conditions, biological surveys) through application of appropriate distributions (e.g., Gaussian, binomial, Poisson). The spatial statistical network models account for spatial autocorrelation (i.e., nonindependence) among measurements, which allows their application to databases with clustered measurement locations. Large amounts of stream data exist in many areas where spatial statistical analyses could be used to develop novel insights, improve predictions at unsampled sites, and aid in the design of efficient monitoring strategies at relatively low cost. We review the topic of spatial autocorrelation and its effects on statistical inference, demonstrate the use of spatial statistics with stream datasets relevant to common research and management questions, and discuss additional applications and development potential for spatial statistics on stream networks. Free software for implementing the spatial statistical network models has been developed that enables custom applications with many stream databases.

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

PubMed

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park's population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions.

Modelling of the 10-micrometer natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, D.; Mumma, M. J.

1983-01-01

The NLTE radiative transfer problem is solved to obtain the 00 deg 1 vibrational state population. This model successfully reproduces the existing center-to-limb observations, although higher spatial resolution observations are needed for a definitive test. The model also predicts total fluxes which are close to the observed values. The strength of the emission is predicted to be closely related to the instantaneous near-IR solar heating rate.

Modeling of the 10-micron natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, D.; Mumma, M. J.

1983-01-01

The NLTE radiative transfer problem is solved to obtain the 00 deg 1 vibrational state population. This model successfully reproduces the existing center-to-limb observations, although higher spatial resolution observations are needed for a definitive test. The model also predicts total fluxes which are close to the observed values. The strength of the emission is predicted to be closely related to the instantaneous near-IR solar heating rate.

Cancer heterogeneity and multilayer spatial evolutionary games.

PubMed

Świerniak, Andrzej; Krześlak, Michał

2016-10-13

Evolutionary game theory (EGT) has been widely used to simulate tumour processes. In almost all studies on EGT models analysis is limited to two or three phenotypes. Our model contains four main phenotypes. Moreover, in a standard approach only heterogeneity of populations is studied, while cancer cells remain homogeneous. A multilayer approach proposed in this paper enables to study heterogeneity of single cells. In the extended model presented in this paper we consider four strategies (phenotypes) that can arise by mutations. We propose multilayer spatial evolutionary games (MSEG) played on multiple 2D lattices corresponding to the possible phenotypes. It enables simulation and investigation of heterogeneity on the player-level in addition to the population-level. Moreover, it allows to model interactions between arbitrary many phenotypes resulting from the mixture of basic traits. Different equilibrium points and scenarios (monomorphic and polymorphic populations) have been achieved depending on model parameters and the type of played game. However, there is a possibility of stable quadromorphic population in MSEG games for the same set of parameters like for the mean-field game. The model assumes an existence of four possible phenotypes (strategies) in the population of cells that make up tumour. Various parameters and relations between cells lead to complex analysis of this model and give diverse results. One of them is a possibility of stable coexistence of different tumour cells within the population, representing almost arbitrary mixture of the basic phenotypes. This article was reviewed by Tomasz Lipniacki, Urszula Ledzewicz and Jacek Banasiak.

A geographical perspective on access to sexual and reproductive health care for women in rural Africa.

PubMed

Yao, Jing; Murray, Alan T; Agadjanian, Victor

2013-11-01

Utilization of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services can significantly impact health outcomes, such as pregnancy and birth, prenatal and neonatal mortality, maternal morbidity and mortality, and vertical transmission of infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS. It has long been recognized that access to SRH services is essential to positive health outcomes, especially in rural areas of developing countries, where long distances as well as poor transportation conditions, can be potential barriers to health care acquisition. Improving accessibility of health services for target populations is therefore critical for specialized healthcare programs. Thus, understanding and evaluation of current access to health care is crucial. Combining spatial information using geographical information system (GIS) with population survey data, this study details a gravity model-based method to measure and evaluate access to SRH services in rural Mozambique, and analyzes potential geographic access to such services, using family planning as an example. Access is found to be a significant factor in reported behavior, superior to traditional distance-based indicators. Spatial disparities in geographic access among different population groups also appear to exist, likely affecting overall program success. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geographical perspective on access to sexual and reproductive health care for women in rural Africa

PubMed Central

Yao, Jing; Murray, Alan T.; Agadjanian, Victor

2015-01-01

Utilization of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services can significantly impact health outcomes, such as pregnancy and birth, prenatal and neonatal mortality, maternal morbidity and mortality, and vertical transmission of infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS. It has long been recognized that access to SRH services is essential to positive health outcomes, especially in rural areas of developing countries, where long distances as well as poor transportation conditions, can be potential barriers to health care acquisition. Improving accessibility of health services for target populations is therefore critical for specialized healthcare programs. Thus, understanding and evaluation of current access to health care is crucial. Combining spatial information using geographical information system (GIS) with population survey data, this study details a gravity model-based method to measure and evaluate access to SRH services in rural Mozambique, and analyzes potential geographic access to such services, using family planning as an example. Access is found to be a significant factor in reported behavior, superior to traditional distance-based indicators. Spatial disparities in geographic access among different population groups also appear to exist, likely affecting overall program success. PMID:24034952

Towards the Development of a More Accurate Monitoring Procedure for Invertebrate Populations, in the Presence of an Unknown Spatial Pattern of Population Distribution in the Field

PubMed Central

Petrovskaya, Natalia B.; Forbes, Emily; Petrovskii, Sergei V.; Walters, Keith F. A.

2018-01-01

Studies addressing many ecological problems require accurate evaluation of the total population size. In this paper, we revisit a sampling procedure used for the evaluation of the abundance of an invertebrate population from assessment data collected on a spatial grid of sampling locations. We first discuss how insufficient information about the spatial population density obtained on a coarse sampling grid may affect the accuracy of an evaluation of total population size. Such information deficit in field data can arise because of inadequate spatial resolution of the population distribution (spatially variable population density) when coarse grids are used, which is especially true when a strongly heterogeneous spatial population density is sampled. We then argue that the average trap count (the quantity routinely used to quantify abundance), if obtained from a sampling grid that is too coarse, is a random variable because of the uncertainty in sampling spatial data. Finally, we show that a probabilistic approach similar to bootstrapping techniques can be an efficient tool to quantify the uncertainty in the evaluation procedure in the presence of a spatial pattern reflecting a patchy distribution of invertebrates within the sampling grid. PMID:29495513

Dynamically rich, yet parameter-sparse models for spatial epidemiology. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jusup, Marko; Iwami, Shingo; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H. Eugene

2015-12-01

Since the very inception of mathematical modeling in epidemiology, scientists exploited the simplicity ingrained in the assumption of a well-mixed population. For example, perhaps the earliest susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model developed by L. Reed and W.H. Frost in the 1920s [1], included the well-mixed assumption such that any two individuals in the population could meet each other. The problem was that, unlike many other simplifying assumptions used in epidemiological modeling whose validity holds in one situation or the other, well-mixed populations are almost non-existent in reality because the nature of human socio-economic interactions is, for the most part, highly heterogeneous (e.g. [2-6]).

Exploring Trade-Offs between Fisheries and Conservation of the Vaquita Porpoise (Phocoena sinus) Using an Atlantis Ecosystem Model

PubMed Central

Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Ainsworth, Cameron H.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Levin, Phillip S.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2012-01-01

Background Minimizing fishery bycatch threats might involve trade-offs between maintaining viable populations and economic benefits. Understanding these trade-offs can help managers reconcile conflicting goals. An example is a set of bycatch reduction measures for the Critically Endangered vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus), in the Northern Gulf of California, Mexico. The vaquita is an endemic species threatened with extinction by artisanal net bycatch within its limited range; in this area fisheries are the chief source of economic productivity. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyze trade-offs between conservation of the vaquita and fisheries, using an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model for the Northern Gulf of California. Atlantis is a spatially-explicit model intended as a strategic tool to test alternative management strategies. We simulated increasingly restrictive fisheries regulations contained in the vaquita conservation plan: implementing progressively larger spatial management areas that exclude gillnets, shrimp driftnets and introduce a fishing gear that has no vaquita bycatch. We found that only the most extensive spatial management scenarios recovered the vaquita population above the threshold necessary to downlist the species from Critically Endangered. The scenario that excludes existing net gear from the 2008 area of vaquita distribution led to moderate decrease in net present value (US$ 42 million) relative to the best-performing scenario and a two-fold increase in the abundance of adult vaquita over the course of 30 years. Conclusions/Significance Extended spatial management resulted in the highest recovery of the vaquita population. The economic cost of proposed management actions was unequally divided between fishing fleets; the loss of value from finfish gillnet fisheries was never recovered. Our analysis shows that managers will have to confront difficult trade-offs between management scenarios for vaquita conservation. PMID:22916180

Adiabatic Edge Channel Transport in a Nanowire Quantum Point Contact Register.

PubMed

Heedt, S; Manolescu, A; Nemnes, G A; Prost, W; Schubert, J; Grützmacher, D; Schäpers, Th

2016-07-13

We report on a prototype device geometry where a number of quantum point contacts are connected in series in a single quasi-ballistic InAs nanowire. At finite magnetic field the backscattering length is increased up to the micron-scale and the quantum point contacts are connected adiabatically. Hence, several input gates can control the outcome of a ballistic logic operation. The absence of backscattering is explained in terms of selective population of spatially separated edge channels. Evidence is provided by regular Aharonov-Bohm-type conductance oscillations in transverse magnetic fields, in agreement with magnetoconductance calculations. The observation of the Shubnikov-de Haas effect at large magnetic fields corroborates the existence of spatially separated edge channels and provides a new means for nanowire characterization.

Creation of Artificial Landscapes Spatial Systems Optimizing Human Habitat on Southern Coasts of the Russian Far East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golikov, S. Yu; Petukhov, V. I.; Maiorov, I. S.

2017-11-01

The features of artificial landscapes’ spatial systems created for the optimization of industry facilities and settlements (as well as forest and agricultural crops taking into account the optimality of the existing microclimate and the possibilities for its improvement) are discussed in the paper. They improve the population health (through the optimization of the environment of settlements), the health of farm animals, the state of crops (through optimization of the climate), watercourses and forests reducing catastrophes on the shores and slopes by the proper selection and placement of species for artificial planting. They are achieved by revegetation, greening, garden and landscape design. In general, their purpose is to optimize the human environment.

The spatial patterns of directional phenotypic selection.

PubMed

Siepielski, Adam M; Gotanda, Kiyoko M; Morrissey, Michael B; Diamond, Sarah E; DiBattista, Joseph D; Carlson, Stephanie M

2013-11-01

Local adaptation, adaptive population divergence and speciation are often expected to result from populations evolving in response to spatial variation in selection. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the major features that characterise the spatial patterns of selection, namely the extent of variation among populations in the strength and direction of selection. Here, we analyse a data set of spatially replicated studies of directional phenotypic selection from natural populations. The data set includes 60 studies, consisting of 3937 estimates of selection across an average of five populations. We performed meta-analyses to explore features characterising spatial variation in directional selection. We found that selection tends to vary mainly in strength and less in direction among populations. Although differences in the direction of selection occur among populations they do so where selection is often weakest, which may limit the potential for ongoing adaptive population divergence. Overall, we also found that spatial variation in selection appears comparable to temporal (annual) variation in selection within populations; however, several deficiencies in available data currently complicate this comparison. We discuss future research needs to further advance our understanding of spatial variation in selection. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

High prevalence of elevated blood lead levels in both rural and urban Iowa newborns: Spatial patterns and area-level covariates

PubMed Central

Zahrieh, David; Young, Sean G.; Oleson, Jacob; Ryckman, Kelli K.; Wels, Brian; Simmons, Donald L.; Saftlas, Audrey

2017-01-01

Lead in maternal blood can cross the placenta and result in elevated blood lead levels in newborns, potentially producing negative effects on neurocognitive function, particularly if combined with childhood lead exposure. Little research exists, however, into the burden of elevated blood lead levels in newborns, or the places and populations in which elevated lead levels are observed in newborns, particularly in rural settings. Using ~2300 dried bloods spots collected within 1–3 days of birth among Iowa newborns, linked with the area of mother’s residence at the time of birth, we examine the spatial patterns of elevated (>5 μg/dL) blood lead levels and the ecological-level predictors of elevated blood lead levels. We find that one in five newborns exceed the 5 μg/dL action level set by the US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Bayesian spatial zero inflated regression indicates that elevated blood lead in newborns is associated with areas of increased pre-1940s housing and childbearing-age women with low educational status in both rural and urban settings. No differences in blood lead levels or the proportion of children exceeding 5 μg/dL are observed between urban and rural maternal residence, though a spatial cluster of elevated blood lead is observed in rural counties. These characteristics can guide the recommendation for testing of infants at well-baby appointments in places where risk factors are present, potentially leading to earlier initiation of case management. The findings also suggest that rural populations are at as great of risk of elevated blood lead levels as are urban populations. Analysis of newborn dried blood spots is an important tool for lead poisoning surveillance in newborns and can direct public health efforts towards specific places and populations where lead testing and case management will have the greatest impact. PMID:28520816

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Marano, K.D.; Hotovec, A.J.; Lin, K.; Hearne, M.G.

2009-01-01

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page ( http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ eqcenter/pager/prodandref/ ). ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

An Ambulatory Method of Identifying Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstructed Gait Patterns

PubMed Central

Patterson, Matthew R.; Delahunt, Eamonn; Sweeney, Kevin T.; Caulfield, Brian

2014-01-01

The use of inertial sensors to characterize pathological gait has traditionally been based on the calculation of temporal and spatial gait variables from inertial sensor data. This approach has proved successful in the identification of gait deviations in populations where substantial differences from normal gait patterns exist; such as in Parkinsonian gait. However, it is not currently clear if this approach could identify more subtle gait deviations, such as those associated with musculoskeletal injury. This study investigates whether additional analysis of inertial sensor data, based on quantification of gyroscope features of interest, would provide further discriminant capability in this regard. The tested cohort consisted of a group of anterior cruciate ligament reconstructed (ACL-R) females and a group of non-injured female controls, each performed ten walking trials. Gait performance was measured simultaneously using inertial sensors and an optoelectronic marker based system. The ACL-R group displayed kinematic and kinetic deviations from the control group, but no temporal or spatial deviations. This study demonstrates that quantification of gyroscope features can successfully identify changes associated with ACL-R gait, which was not possible using spatial or temporal variables. This finding may also have a role in other clinical applications where small gait deviations exist. PMID:24451464

Resilience of aging populations after devastating earthquake event and its determinants - A case study of the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Chih-Hsuan; Hung, Hung-Chih

2016-04-01

1.Background Major portions of urban areas in Asia are highly exposed and vulnerable to devastating earthquakes. Many studies identify ways to reduce earthquake risk by concentrating more on building resilience for the particularly vulnerable populations. By 2020, as the United Nations' warning, many Asian countries would become 'super-aged societies', such as Taiwan. However, local authorities rarely use resilience approach to frame earthquake disaster risk management and land use strategies. The empirically-based research about the resilience of aging populations has also received relatively little attention. Thus, a challenge arisen for decision-makers is how to enhance resilience of aging populations within the context of risk reduction. This study aims to improve the understanding of the resilience of aging populations and its changes over time in the aftermath of a destructive earthquake at the local level. A novel methodology is proposed to assess the resilience of aging populations and to characterize their changes of spatial distribution patterns, as well as to examine their determinants. 2.Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including before, during and after a disaster) that could serve as proxies for attributes of the resilience of aging populations. Using the recovery process of the Chi-Chi earthquake struck central Taiwan in 1999 as a case study, we applied a method combined a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique and cluster analysis to test the extent of which the resilience of aging populations is spatially autocorrelated throughout the central Taiwan, and to explain why clustering of resilient areas occurs in specific locations. Furthermore, to scrutinize the affecting factors of resilience, we develop an aging population resilience model (APRM) based on existing resilience theory. Using the APRM, we applied a multivariate regression analysis to identify and examine how various factors connect to the resilience of aging populations. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collected data on the resilience attributes, the disaster impacts and damages due to the Chi-Chi earthquake. The data were offered by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, as well as collected from the National Land Use Investigation, official census statistics and questionnaire surveys. 3.Results Integrating cluster analysis with GIS-based spatial statistical analysis, the resilience of aging populations were divided into five clusters of distribution patterns over the 10 years after the Chi-Chi earthquake. It shows that both population and elderly distributions were highly heterogeneous and spatial correlated across the study areas. We also demonstrated the 'hot spots' areas of the highly concentrated aging population across central Taiwan. Results of regression analysis disclosed the major factors that caused low resilience and changes of aging population distributions over time. These factors included the levels of seismic damage, infrastructure investments, as well as the land-use and socioeconomic attributes associated with the disaster areas. Finally, our findings provide stakeholders and policy-makers with better adaptive options to design and synthesize appropriate patchworks of planning measures for different types of resilience areas to reduce earthquake disaster risk.

Using neuronal populations to study the mechanisms underlying spatial and feature attention

PubMed Central

Cohen, Marlene R.; Maunsell, John H.R.

2012-01-01

Summary Visual attention affects both perception and neuronal responses. Whether the same neuronal mechanisms mediate spatial attention, which improves perception of attended locations, and non-spatial forms of attention has been a subject of considerable debate. Spatial and feature attention have similar effects on individual neurons. Because visual cortex is retinotopically organized, however, spatial attention can co-modulate local neuronal populations, while feature attention generally requires more selective modulation. We compared the effects of feature and spatial attention on local and spatially separated populations by recording simultaneously from dozens of neurons in both hemispheres of V4. Feature and spatial attention affect the activity of local populations similarly, modulating both firing rates and correlations between pairs of nearby neurons. However, while spatial attention appears to act on local populations, feature attention is coordinated across hemispheres. Our results are consistent with a unified attentional mechanism that can modulate the responses of arbitrary subgroups of neurons. PMID:21689604

Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Hay, Simon I

2010-04-01

Risk maps estimating the spatial distribution of infectious diseases are required to guide public health policy from local to global scales. The advent of model-based geostatistics (MBG) has allowed these maps to be generated in a formal statistical framework, providing robust metrics of map uncertainty that enhances their utility for decision-makers. In many settings, decision-makers require spatially aggregated measures over large regions such as the mean prevalence within a country or administrative region, or national populations living under different levels of risk. Existing MBG mapping approaches provide suitable metrics of local uncertainty--the fidelity of predictions at each mapped pixel--but have not been adapted for measuring uncertainty over large areas, due largely to a series of fundamental computational constraints. Here the authors present a new efficient approximating algorithm that can generate for the first time the necessary joint simulation of prevalence values across the very large prediction spaces needed for global scale mapping. This new approach is implemented in conjunction with an established model for P. falciparum allowing robust estimates of mean prevalence at any specified level of spatial aggregation. The model is used to provide estimates of national populations at risk under three policy-relevant prevalence thresholds, along with accompanying model-based measures of uncertainty. By overcoming previously unchallenged computational barriers, this study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectious disease mapping, can be extended to provide large-scale aggregate measures appropriate for decision-makers.

Spatial disparity in the distribution of superfund sites in South Carolina: an ecological study.

PubMed

Burwell-Naney, Kristen; Zhang, Hongmei; Samantapudi, Ashok; Jiang, Chengsheng; Dalemarre, Laura; Rice, LaShanta; Williams, Edith; Wilson, Sacoby

2013-11-06

According to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Superfund is a federal government program implemented to clean up uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. Twenty-six sites in South Carolina (SC) have been included on the National Priorities List (NPL), which has serious human health and environmental implications. The purpose of this study was to assess spatial disparities in the distribution of Superfund sites in SC. The 2000 US census tract and block level data were used to generate population characteristics, which included race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), education, home ownership, and home built before 1950. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to map Superfund facilities and develop choropleth maps based on the aforementioned sociodemographic variables. Spatial methods, including mean and median distance analysis, buffer analysis, and spatial approximation were employed to characterize burden disparities. Regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between the number of Superfund facilities and population characteristics. Spatial coincidence results showed that of the 29.5% of Blacks living in SC, 55.9% live in Superfund host census tracts. Among all populations in SC living below poverty (14.2%), 57.2% were located in Superfund host census tracts. Buffer analyses results (0.5mi, 1.0mi, 5.0mi, 0.5km, 1.0km, and 5.0km) showed a higher percentage of Whites compared to Blacks hosting a Superfund facility. Conversely, a slightly higher percentage of Blacks hosted (30.2%) a Superfund facility than those not hosting (28.8%) while their White counterparts had more equivalent values (66.7% and 67.8%, respectively). Regression analyses in the reduced model (Adj. R2 = 0.038) only explained a small percentage of the variance. In addition, the mean distance for percent of Blacks in the 90th percentile for Superfund facilities was 0.48mi. Burden disparities exist in the distribution of Superfund facilities in SC at the block and census tract levels across varying levels of demographic composition for race/ethnicity and SES.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

[Minimum Standards for the Spatial Accessibility of Primary Care: A Systematic Review].

PubMed

Voigtländer, S; Deiters, T

2015-12-01

Regional disparities of access to primary care are substantial in Germany, especially in terms of spatial accessibility. However, there is no legally or generally binding minimum standard for the spatial accessibility effort that is still acceptable. Our objective is to analyse existing minimum standards, the methods used as well as their empirical basis. A systematic literature review was undertaken of publications regarding minimum standards for the spatial accessibility of primary care based on a title word and keyword search using PubMed, SSCI/Web of Science, EMBASE and Cochrane Library. 8 minimum standards from the USA, Germany and Austria could be identified. All of them specify the acceptable spatial accessibility effort in terms of travel time; almost half include also distance(s). The travel time maximum, which is acceptable, is 30 min and it tends to be lower in urban areas. Primary care is, according to the identified minimum standards, part of the local area (Nahbereich) of so-called central places (Zentrale Orte) providing basic goods and services. The consideration of means of transport, e. g. public transport, is heterogeneous. The standards are based on empirical studies, consultation with service providers, practical experiences, and regional planning/central place theory as well as on legal or political regulations. The identified minimum standards provide important insights into the effort that is still acceptable regarding spatial accessibility, i. e. travel time, distance and means of transport. It seems reasonable to complement the current planning system for outpatient care, which is based on provider-to-population ratios, by a gravity-model method to identify places as well as populations with insufficient spatial accessibility. Due to a lack of a common minimum standard we propose - subject to further discussion - to begin with a threshold based on the spatial accessibility limit of the local area, i. e. 30 min to the next primary care provider for at least 90% of the regional population. The exceeding of the threshold would necessitate a discussion of a health care deficit and in line with this a potential need for intervention, e. g. in terms of alternative forms of health care provision. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Human Alu insertion polymorphisms in North African populations.

PubMed

Cherni, Loth; Frigi, Sabeh; Ennafaa, Hajer; Mtiraoui, Nabil; Mahjoub, Touhami; Benammar-Elgaaied, Amel

2011-10-01

Several features make Alu insertions a powerful tool used in population genetic studies: the polymorphic nature of many Alu insertions, the stability of an Alu insertion event and, furthermore, the ancestral state of an Alu insertion is known to be the absence of the Alu element at a particular locus and the presence of an Alu insertion at the site that forward mutational change. This study analyses seven Alu insertion polymorphisms in a sample of 297 individuals from the autochthonous population of Tunisia (Thala, Smar, Zarzis, and Bou Salem) and Libya with the aim of studying their genetic structure with respect to the populations of North Africa, Western, Eastern and Central Europe. The comparative analyses carried out using the MDS and AMOVA methods reveal the existence of spatial heterogeneity, and identify four population groups. Study populations (Libya, Smar, Zarzis, and Bou Salem) are closest to North African populations whereas Thala is isolated and is closest to Western European populations. In conclusion, Results of the present study support the important role that migratory movements have played in the North African gene pool, at least since the Neolithic period.

Heterogeneity in the distribution of genetically modified and conventional oilseed rape within fields and seed lots.

PubMed

Begg, Graham S; Elliott, Martin J; Cullen, Danny W; Iannetta, Pietro P M; Squire, Geoff R

2008-10-01

The implementation of co-existence in the commercialisation of GM crops requires GM and non-GM products to be segregated in production and supply. However, maintaining segregation in oilseed rape will be made difficult by the highly persistent nature of this species. An understanding of its population dynamics is needed to predict persistence and develop potential strategies for control, while to ensure segregation is being achieved, the production of GM oilseed rape must be accompanied by the monitoring of GM levels in crop or seed populations. Heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of oilseed rape has the potential to affect both control and monitoring and, although a universal phenomenon in arable weeds and harvested seed lots, spatial heterogeneity in oilseed rape populations remains to be demonstrated and quantified. Here we investigate the distribution of crop and volunteer populations in a commercial field before and during the cultivation of the first conventional oilseed rape (winter) crop since the cultivation of a GM glufosinate-tolerant oilseed rape crop (spring) three years previously. GM presence was detected by ELISA for the PAT protein in each of three morphologically distinguishable phenotypes: autumn germinating crop-type plants (3% GM), autumn-germinating 'regrowths' (72% GM) and spring germinating 'small-type' plants (17% GM). Statistical models (Poisson log-normal and binomial logit-normal) were used to describe the spatial distribution of these populations at multiple spatial scales in the field and of GM presence in the harvested seed lot. Heterogeneity was a consistent feature in the distribution of GM and conventional oilseed rape. Large trends across the field (50 x 400 m) and seed lot (4 x 1.5 x 1.5 m) were observed in addition to small-scale heterogeneity, less than 20 m in the field and 20 cm in the seed lot. The heterogeneity was greater for the 'regrowth' and 'small' phenotypes, which were likely to be volunteers and included most of the GM plants detected, than for the largely non-GM 'crop' phenotype. The implications of the volunteer heterogeneity for field management and GM-sampling are discussed.

Boundedness and global stability of the two-predator and one-prey models with nonlinear prey-taxis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianping; Wang, Mingxin

2018-06-01

This paper concerns the reaction-diffusion systems modeling the population dynamics of two predators and one prey with nonlinear prey-taxis. We first investigate the global existence and boundedness of the unique classical solution for the general model. Then, we study the global stabilities of nonnegative spatially homogeneous equilibria for an explicit system with type I functional responses and density-dependent death rates for the predators and logistic growth for the prey. Moreover, the convergence rates are also established.

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models

PubMed Central

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal’s home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786–1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703–0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779–0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758–1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700–0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771–0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park’s population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions. PMID:26230262

Past distributions of the European freshwater eel from archaeological and palaeontological evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, A. J.; Heinrich, D.; Barrett, J. H.; Benecke, N.; Locker, A.

2008-07-01

The spatial distribution of the European freshwater eel ( Anguilla anguilla) was very different in historic and prehistoric times in comparison to the present. A database of the spatial and temporal distribution of eel remains in archaeological and palaeontological sites is presented and used to assess the spatial distribution of populations from the height of the last glacial maximum. The results show that the eel was absent from northern Europe until about 11 000 years ago. The reason was probably a southerly displacement of the Gulf Stream carrying the larval migration from the Sargasso Sea. However, additional factors preventing eel populations in northern Europe may have also been the colder temperatures in the Arctic tundra landscape that existed at the time and the extreme distance to the European Atlantic coast along the Channel River. The archaeological record shows that eels were absent from the Baltic Sea until about 6700 cal BC, but there is some indication of an earlier presence during the Yoldia Sea stage at the beginning of the Holocene. Only in southern Europe south of the Gironde river basin were eel populations maintained through the last glaciation. The species may have survived the last glaciation in a relatively restricted area in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic coast of western Europe. Published palaeontological and genetic information gives important insights into climatic, geologic, and tectonic events on longer time scales. The oldest subfossil remains from Pleistocene sediments in northern Europe are approaching the age of the estimated genetic divergence of the European and American eel populations, and hence the species identity of the oldest subfossil remains may be ambiguous.

A Spatial Method to Calculate Small-Scale Fisheries Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, A. F.; Moreno-Báez, M.; Giron-Nava, A.; Corominas, J.; Erisman, B.; Ezcurra, E.; Aburto-Oropeza, O.

2016-02-01

Despite global catch per unit effort having redoubled since the 1950's, the global fishing fleet is estimated to be twice the size that the oceans can sustainably support. In order to gauge the collateral impacts of fishing intensity, we must be able to estimate the spatial extent and amount of fishing vessels in the oceans. Methods that do currently exist are built around electronic tracking and log book systems and generally focus on industrial fisheries. Spatial extent for small-scale fisheries therefore remains elusive for many small-scale fishing fleets; even though these fisheries land the same biomass for human consumption as industrial fisheries. Current methods are data-intensive and require extensive extrapolation when estimated across large spatial scales. We present an accessible, spatial method of calculating the extent of small-scale fisheries based on two simple measures that are available, or at least easily estimable, in even the most data poor fisheries: the number of boats and the local coastal human population. We demonstrate this method is fishery-type independent and can be used to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of growth in small-scale fisheries. This method provides an important first step towards estimating the fishing extent of the small-scale fleet, globally.

A scan statistic for binary outcome based on hypergeometric probability model, with an application to detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis.

PubMed

Zhao, Xing; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Zijian; Guo, Pengfei; He, Hongyan; Zhang, Tao; Duan, Lei; Li, Xiaosong

2013-01-01

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.

Finding Food Deserts: A Comparison of Methods Measuring Spatial Access to Food Stores.

PubMed

Jaskiewicz, Lara; Block, Daniel; Chavez, Noel

2016-05-01

Public health research has increasingly focused on how access to resources affects health behaviors. Mapping environmental factors, such as distance to a supermarket, can identify intervention points toward improving food access in low-income and minority communities. However, the existing literature provides little guidance on choosing the most appropriate measures of spatial access. This study compared the results of different measures of spatial access to large food stores and the locations of high and low access identified by each. The data set included U.S. Census population data and the locations of large food stores in the six-county area around Chicago, Illinois. Six measures of spatial access were calculated at the census block group level and the results compared. The analysis found that there was little agreement in the identified locations of high or low access between measures. This study illustrates the importance of considering the access measure used when conducting research, interpreting results, or comparing studies. Future research should explore the correlation of different measures with health behaviors and health outcomes. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.

Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Kok Foong; Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang

2015-12-15

Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Problems concerning multi-compartment population balance equations are studied. •A class of fragmentation weight transfer functions is presented. •Three stochastic weighted algorithms are compared against the direct simulation algorithm. •The numerical errors of the stochastic solutions are assessed as a function of fragmentation rate. •The algorithms are applied to a multi-dimensional granulation model. -- Abstract: This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. Themore » weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.« less

[New view on the population genetic structure of marine fish].

PubMed

Salmenkova, E A

2011-11-01

The view on homogeneous population genetic structure in many marine fish with high mobility has changed significantly during the last ten years. Molecular genetic population studies over the whole ranges of such species as Atlantic herring and Atlantic cod showed a complex picture of spatial differentiation both on the macrogeographic and, in many areas, on the microgeographic scale, although the differentiation for neutral molecular markers was low. It was established that the migration activity of such fish is constrained in many areas of the species range by hydrological and physicochemical transition zones (environmental gradients), as well as gyres in the spawning regions. Natal homing was recorded in a number of marine fish species. Existing in marine fish constraints of gene migration and a very high variance of reproductive success determine a significantly smaller proportion of effective reproductive size of their populations in the total population size, which generates more complex abundance dynamics than assumed earlier. The various constraints on gene migration and natal homing in marine fish promote the formation of local adaptations at ecologically important phenotypic traits. Effects of selection underlying adaptations are actively investigated in marine fish on the genomic level, using approaches of population genomics. The knowledge of adaptive intraspecific structure enables understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes, that influence biodiversity and providing spatial frames for conservation of genetic resources under commercial exploitation. Contemporary views on the population genetic and adaptive structures or biocomplexity in marine fish support and develop the main principles of the conception of systemic organization of the species and its regional populations, which were advanced by Yu.P. Altukhov and Yu.G. Rychkov.

CDPOP: A spatially explicit cost distance population genetics program

Treesearch

Erin L. Landguth; S. A. Cushman

2010-01-01

Spatially explicit simulation of gene flow in complex landscapes is essential to explain observed population responses and provide a foundation for landscape genetics. To address this need, we wrote a spatially explicit, individual-based population genetics model (CDPOP). The model implements individual-based population modelling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele...

Google Earth in the middle school geography classroom: Its impact on spatial literacy and place geography understanding of students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westgard, Kerri S. W.

Success in today's globalized, multi-dimensional, and connected world requires individuals to have a variety of skill sets -- i.e. oracy, numeracy, literacy, as well as the ability to think spatially. Student's spatial literacy, based on various national and international assessment results, indicates that even though there have been gains in U.S. scores over the past decade, overall performance, including those specific to spatial skills, are still below proficiency. Existing studies focused on the potential of virtual learning environment technology to reach students in a variety of academic areas, but a need still exists to study specifically the phenomenon of using Google Earth as a potentially more useful pedagogical tool to develop spatial literacy than the currently employed methods. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which graphicacy achievement scores of students who were immersed in a Google Earth environment were different from students who were provided with only two-dimensional instruction for developing spatial skills. Situated learning theory and the work of Piaget and Inhelder's Child's Conception of Space provided the theoretical grounding from which this study evolved. The National Research Council's call to develop spatial literacy, as seen in Learning to Think Spatially , provided the impetus to begin research. The target population (N = 84) for this study consisted of eighth grade geography students at an upper Midwest Jr. High School during the 2009-2010 academic year. Students were assigned to the control or experimental group based on when they had geography class. Control group students ( n = 44) used two-dimensional PowerPoint images to complete activities, while experimental group students (n = 40) were immersed in the three-dimensional Google Earth world for activity completion. Research data was then compiled and statistically analyzed to answer five research questions developed for this study. One-way ANOVAs were run on data collected and no statistically significant difference was found between the control and experimental group. However, two of the five research questions yielded practically significant data that indicates students who used Google Earth outperformed their counterparts who used PowerPoint on pattern prediction and spatial relationship understanding.

Space versus Place in Complex Human-Natural Systems: Spatial and Multi-level Models of Tropical Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) in Guatemala

PubMed Central

López-Carr, David; Davis, Jason; Jankowska, Marta; Grant, Laura; López-Carr, Anna Carla; Clark, Matthew

2013-01-01

The relative role of space and place has long been debated in geography. Yet modeling efforts applied to coupled human-natural systems seemingly favor models assuming continuous spatial relationships. We examine the relative importance of placebased hierarchical versus spatial clustering influences in tropical land use/cover change (LUCC). Guatemala was chosen as our study site given its high rural population growth and deforestation in recent decades. We test predictors of 2009 forest cover and forest cover change from 2001-2009 across Guatemala's 331 municipalities and 22 departments using spatial and multi-level statistical models. Our results indicate the emergence of several socio-economic predictors of LUCC regardless of model choice. Hierarchical model results suggest that significant differences exist at the municipal and departmental levels but largely maintain the magnitude and direction of single-level model coefficient estimates. They are also intervention-relevant since policies tend to be applicable to distinct political units rather than to continuous space. Spatial models complement hierarchical approaches by indicating where and to what magnitude significant negative and positive clustering associations emerge. Appreciating the comparative advantages and limitations of spatial and nested models enhances a holistic approach to geographical analysis of tropical LUCC and human-environment interactions. PMID:24013908

Urban population genetics of slum-dwelling rats (Rattus norvegicus) in Salvador, Brazil

PubMed Central

Kajdacsi, Brittney; Costa, Federico; Hyseni, Chaz; Porter, Fleur; Brown, Julia; Rodrigues, Gorete; Farias, Helena; Reis, Mitermeyer G.; Childs, James E.; Ko, Albert I.; Caccone, Adalgisa

2013-01-01

Throughout the developing world, urban centers with sprawling slum settlements are rapidly expanding and invading previously forested ecosystems. Slum communities are characterized by untended refuse, open sewers, and overgrown vegetation, which promote rodent infestation. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus), are reservoirs for epidemic transmission of many zoonotic pathogens of public health importance. Understanding the population ecology of R. norvegicus is essential to formulate effective rodent control strategies, as this knowledge aids estimation of the temporal stability and spatial connectivity of populations. We screened for genetic variation, characterized the population genetic structure, and evaluated the extent and patterns of gene flow in the urban landscape using 17 microsatellite loci in 146 rats from 9 sites in the city of Salvador, Brazil. These sites were divided between three neighborhoods within the city spaced an average of 2.7 km apart. Surprisingly, we detected very little relatedness among animals trapped at the same site and found high levels of genetic diversity, as well as structuring across small geographic distances. Most FST comparisons among sites were statistically significant, including sites <400 m apart. Bayesian analyses grouped the samples in three genetic clusters, each associated with distinct sampling sites from different neighborhoods or valleys within neighborhoods. These data indicate the existence of complex genetic structure in R. norvegicus in Salvador, linked to the heterogeneous urban landscape. Future rodent control measures need to take into account the spatial and temporal linkage of rat populations in Salvador, as revealed by genetic data, to develop informed eradication strategies. PMID:24118116

Interplay between population firing stability and single neuron dynamics in hippocampal networks

PubMed Central

Slomowitz, Edden; Styr, Boaz; Vertkin, Irena; Milshtein-Parush, Hila; Nelken, Israel; Slutsky, Michael; Slutsky, Inna

2015-01-01

Neuronal circuits' ability to maintain the delicate balance between stability and flexibility in changing environments is critical for normal neuronal functioning. However, to what extent individual neurons and neuronal populations maintain internal firing properties remains largely unknown. In this study, we show that distributions of spontaneous population firing rates and synchrony are subject to accurate homeostatic control following increase of synaptic inhibition in cultured hippocampal networks. Reduction in firing rate triggered synaptic and intrinsic adaptive responses operating as global homeostatic mechanisms to maintain firing macro-stability, without achieving local homeostasis at the single-neuron level. Adaptive mechanisms, while stabilizing population firing properties, reduced short-term facilitation essential for synaptic discrimination of input patterns. Thus, invariant ongoing population dynamics emerge from intrinsically unstable activity patterns of individual neurons and synapses. The observed differences in the precision of homeostatic control at different spatial scales challenge cell-autonomous theory of network homeostasis and suggest the existence of network-wide regulation rules. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04378.001 PMID:25556699

Mapping young stellar populations towards Orion with Gaia DR1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zari, Eleonora; Brown, Anthony G. A.

2018-04-01

OB associations are prime sites for the study of star formation processes and of the interaction between young massive stars with the interstellar medium. Furthermore, the kinematics and structure of the nearest OB associations provide detailed insight into the properties and origin of the Gould Belt. In this context, the Orion complex has been extensively studied. However, the spatial distribution of the stellar population is still uncertain: in particular, the distances and ages of the various sub-groups composing the Orion OB association, and their connection to the surrounding interstellar medium, are not well determined. We used the first Gaia data release to characterize the stellar population in Orion, with the goal to obtain new distance and age estimates of the numerous stellar groups composing the Orion OB association. We found evidence of the existence of a young and rich population spread over the entire region, loosely clustered around some known groups. This newly discovered population of young stars provides a fresh view of the star formation history of the Orion region.

Bodily illusions in health and disease: physiological and clinical perspectives and the concept of a cortical 'body matrix'.

PubMed

Moseley, G Lorimer; Gallace, Alberto; Spence, Charles

2012-01-01

Illusions that induce a feeling of ownership over an artificial body or body-part have been used to explore the complex relationships that exist between the brain's representation of the body and the integrity of the body itself. Here we discuss recent findings in both healthy volunteers and clinical populations that highlight the robust relationship that exists between a person's sense of ownership over a body part, cortical processing of tactile input from that body part, and its physiological regulation. We propose that a network of multisensory and homeostatic brain areas may be responsible for maintaining a 'body-matrix'. That is, a dynamic neural representation that not only extends beyond the body surface to integrate both somatotopic and peripersonal sensory data, but also integrates body-centred spatial sensory data. The existence of such a 'body-matrix' allows our brain to adapt to even profound anatomical and configurational changes to our body. It also plays an important role in maintaining homeostatic control over the body. Its alteration can be seen to have both deleterious and beneficial effects in various clinical populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maxillofacial Injuries as Markers of Interpersonal Violence in Belo Horizonte-Brazil: Analysis of the Socio-Spatial Vulnerability of the Location of Victim’s Residences

PubMed Central

Silva, Carlos José de Paula; Moura, Ana Clara Mourão; Paiva, Paula Cristina Pelli; Ferreira, Raquel Conceição; Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Vargas, Andréa Maria Duarte; de Paula, Liliam Pacheco Pinto; Naves, Marcelo Drummond; Ferreira, Efigênia Ferreira e

2015-01-01

The aim of the present study was to analyze the spatial pattern of cases of maxillofacial injuries caused by interpersonal violence, based on the location of the victim’s residence, and to investigate the existence of conditions of socio-spatial vulnerability in these areas. This is a cross-sectional study, using the data of victims attended in three emergency hospitals in Belo Horizonte-Brazil between January 2008 and December 2010. Based on the process of spatial signature, the socio-spatial condition of the victims was identified according to data from census tracts. The spatial distribution trends of the addresses of victims were analyzed using Kernel maps and Ripley’s K function. Multicriteria analysis was used to analyze the territorial insertion of victims, using a combination of variables to obtain the degree of socio-spatial vulnerability. The residences of the victims were distributed in an aggregated manner in urban areas, with a confidence level of 99%. The highest densities were found in areas of unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and, to a lesser extent, areas with worse residential and neighborhood infrastructure. Spatial clusters of households formed in slums with a significant level of socio-spatial vulnerability. Explanations of the living conditions in segregated urban areas and analysis of the concentration of more vulnerable populations should be a priority in the development of public health and safety policies. PMID:26274320

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Effect of climate change on marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikebo, F. B.; Sundby, S.; Aadlandsvik, B.; Fiksen, O.

2003-04-01

As a part of the INTEGRATION project, headed by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, funded by the German Research Council, the impact of climate change scenarios on marine fish populations will be addressed on a spesific population basis and will focus on fish populations in the northern North Atlantic with special emphasis on cod. The approach taken will mainly be a modelling study supported by analysis of existing data on fish stocks and climate. Through down-scaling and nesting techniques, various climate change scenarios with reduced THC in the North Atlantic will be investigated with higher spatial resolution for selected shelf areas. The hydrodynamical model used for the regional ocean modeling is ROMS (http://marine.rutgers.edu/po/models/roms/). An individual based model will be implemented into the larval drift module to simulate growth of the larvae along the drift paths.

Enhancement of Spatial Ability in Girls in a Single-Sex Environment through Spatial Experience and the Impact on Information Seeking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swarlis, Linda L.

2008-01-01

The test scores of spatial ability for women lag behind those of men in many spatial tests. On the Mental Rotations Test (MRT), a significant gender gap has existed for over 20 years and continues to exist. High spatial ability has been linked to efficiencies in typical computing tasks including Web and database searching, text editing, and…

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

An Updating System for the Gridded Population Database of China Based on Remote Sensing, GIS and Spatial Database Technologies.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaohuan; Huang, Yaohuan; Dong, Pinliang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Honghui

2009-01-01

The spatial distribution of population is closely related to land use and land cover (LULC) patterns on both regional and global scales. Population can be redistributed onto geo-referenced square grids according to this relation. In the past decades, various approaches to monitoring LULC using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been developed, which makes it possible for efficient updating of geo-referenced population data. A Spatial Population Updating System (SPUS) is developed for updating the gridded population database of China based on remote sensing, GIS and spatial database technologies, with a spatial resolution of 1 km by 1 km. The SPUS can process standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS L1B) data integrated with a Pattern Decomposition Method (PDM) and an LULC-Conversion Model to obtain patterns of land use and land cover, and provide input parameters for a Population Spatialization Model (PSM). The PSM embedded in SPUS is used for generating 1 km by 1 km gridded population data in each population distribution region based on natural and socio-economic variables. Validation results from finer township-level census data of Yishui County suggest that the gridded population database produced by the SPUS is reliable.

Sumatran tiger survival threatened by deforestation despite increasing densities in parks.

PubMed

Luskin, Matthew Scott; Albert, Wido Rizki; Tobler, Mathias W

2017-12-05

The continuing development of improved capture-recapture (CR) modeling techniques used to study apex predators has also limited robust temporal and cross-site analyses due to different methods employed. We develop an approach to standardize older non-spatial CR and newer spatial CR density estimates and examine trends for critically endangered Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) using a meta-regression of 17 existing densities and new estimates from our own fieldwork. We find that tiger densities were 47% higher in primary versus degraded forests and, unexpectedly, increased 4.9% per yr from 1996 to 2014, likely indicating a recovery from earlier poaching. However, while tiger numbers may have temporarily risen, the total potential island-wide population declined by 16.6% from 2000 to 2012 due to forest loss and degradation and subpopulations are significantly more fragmented. Thus, despite increasing densities in smaller parks, we conclude that there are only two robust populations left with >30 breeding females, indicating Sumatran tigers still face a high risk of extinction unless deforestation can be controlled.

Using optimal transport theory to estimate transition probabilities in metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Jonathan M.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.; Nichols, James D.

2017-01-01

This work considers the estimation of transition probabilities associated with populations moving among multiple spatial locations based on numbers of individuals at each location at two points in time. The problem is generally underdetermined as there exists an extremely large number of ways in which individuals can move from one set of locations to another. A unique solution therefore requires a constraint. The theory of optimal transport provides such a constraint in the form of a cost function, to be minimized in expectation over the space of possible transition matrices. We demonstrate the optimal transport approach on marked bird data and compare to the probabilities obtained via maximum likelihood estimation based on marked individuals. It is shown that by choosing the squared Euclidean distance as the cost, the estimated transition probabilities compare favorably to those obtained via maximum likelihood with marked individuals. Other implications of this cost are discussed, including the ability to accurately interpolate the population's spatial distribution at unobserved points in time and the more general relationship between the cost and minimum transport energy.

[Spatial structure analysis and distribution simulation of Therioaphis trifolii population based on geostatistics and GIS].

PubMed

Zhang, Rong; Leng, Yun-fa; Zhu, Meng-meng; Wang, Fang

2007-11-01

Based on geographic information system and geostatistics, the spatial structure of Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods in Yuanzhou district of Guyuan City, the southern Ningxia Province, was analyzed. The spatial distribution of Therioaphis trifolii population was also simulated by ordinary Kriging interpretation. The results showed that Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods was correlated spatially in the study area. The semivariograms of Therioaphis trifolii could be described by exponential model, indicating an aggregated spatial arrangement. The spatial variance varied from 34.13%-48.77%, and the range varied from 8.751-12.049 km. The degree and direction of aggregation showed that the trend was increased gradually from southwest to northeast. The dynamic change of Therioaphis trifolii population in different periods could be analyzed intuitively on the simulated maps of the spatial distribution from the two aspects of time and space, The occurrence position and degree of Therioaphis trifolii to a state of certain time could be determined easily.

Quantifying Spatial Genetic Structuring in Mesophotic Populations of the Precious Coral Corallium rubrum

PubMed Central

Costantini, Federica; Carlesi, Lorenzo; Abbiati, Marco

2013-01-01

While shallow water red coral populations have been overharvested in the past, nowadays, commercial harvesting shifted its pressure on mesophotic organisms. An understanding of red coral population structure, particularly larval dispersal patterns and connectivity among harvested populations is paramount to the viability of the species. In order to determine patterns of genetic spatial structuring of deep water Corallium rubrum populations, for the first time, colonies found between 58–118 m depth within the Tyrrhenian Sea were collected and analyzed. Ten microsatellite loci and two regions of mitochondrial DNA (mtMSH and mtC) were used to quantify patterns of genetic diversity within populations and to define population structuring at spatial scales from tens of metres to hundreds of kilometres. Microsatellites showed heterozygote deficiencies in all populations. Significant levels of genetic differentiation were observed at all investigated spatial scales, suggesting that populations are likely to be isolated. This differentiation may by the results of biological interactions, occurring within a small spatial scale and/or abiotic factors acting at a larger scale. Mitochondrial markers revealed significant genetic structuring at spatial scales greater then 100 km showing the occurrence of a barrier to gene flow between northern and southern Tyrrhenian populations. These findings provide support for the establishment of marine protected areas in the deep sea and off-shore reefs, in order to effectively maintain genetic diversity of mesophotic red coral populations. PMID:23646109

Quantifying spatial genetic structuring in mesophotic populations of the precious coral Corallium rubrum.

PubMed

Costantini, Federica; Carlesi, Lorenzo; Abbiati, Marco

2013-01-01

While shallow water red coral populations have been overharvested in the past, nowadays, commercial harvesting shifted its pressure on mesophotic organisms. An understanding of red coral population structure, particularly larval dispersal patterns and connectivity among harvested populations is paramount to the viability of the species. In order to determine patterns of genetic spatial structuring of deep water Corallium rubrum populations, for the first time, colonies found between 58-118 m depth within the Tyrrhenian Sea were collected and analyzed. Ten microsatellite loci and two regions of mitochondrial DNA (mtMSH and mtC) were used to quantify patterns of genetic diversity within populations and to define population structuring at spatial scales from tens of metres to hundreds of kilometres. Microsatellites showed heterozygote deficiencies in all populations. Significant levels of genetic differentiation were observed at all investigated spatial scales, suggesting that populations are likely to be isolated. This differentiation may by the results of biological interactions, occurring within a small spatial scale and/or abiotic factors acting at a larger scale. Mitochondrial markers revealed significant genetic structuring at spatial scales greater then 100 km showing the occurrence of a barrier to gene flow between northern and southern Tyrrhenian populations. These findings provide support for the establishment of marine protected areas in the deep sea and off-shore reefs, in order to effectively maintain genetic diversity of mesophotic red coral populations.

Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System.

PubMed

Curtis, Katherine J; Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack

2015-08-01

Changes in the human migration systems of the Gulf of Mexico coastline counties affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita provide an example of how climate change may affect coastal populations. Crude climate change models predict a mass migration of "climate refugees," but an emerging literature on environmental migration suggests that most migration will be short-distance and short-duration within existing migration systems, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-stricken places. In this research, we derive a series of hypotheses on recovery migration predicting how the migration system of hurricane-affected coastline counties in the Gulf of Mexico was likely to have changed between the pre-disaster and the recovery periods. We test these hypotheses using data from the Internal Revenue Service on annual county-level migration flows, comparing the recovery period migration system (2007-2009) with the pre-disaster period (1999-2004). By observing county-to-county ties and flows, we find that recovery migration was strong: the migration system of the disaster-affected coastline counties became more spatially concentrated, while flows within it intensified and became more urbanized. Our analysis demonstrates how migration systems are likely to be affected by the more intense and frequent storms anticipated by climate change scenarios, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-affected places.

Nutritional Correlates of Koala Persistence in a Low-Density Population

PubMed Central

Stalenberg, Eleanor; Wallis, Ian R.; Cunningham, Ross B.; Allen, Chris; Foley, William J.

2014-01-01

It is widely postulated that nutritional factors drive bottom-up, resource-based patterns in herbivore ecology and distribution. There is, however, much controversy over the roles of different plant constituents and how these influence individual herbivores and herbivore populations. The density of koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations varies widely and many attribute population trends to variation in the nutritional quality of the eucalypt leaves of their diet, but there is little evidence to support this hypothesis. We used a nested design that involved sampling of trees at two spatial scales to investigate how leaf chemistry influences free-living koalas from a low-density population in south east New South Wales, Australia. Using koala faecal pellets as a proxy for koala visitation to trees, we found an interaction between toxins and nutrients in leaves at a small spatial scale, whereby koalas preferred trees with leaves of higher concentrations of available nitrogen but lower concentrations of sideroxylonals (secondary metabolites found exclusively in eucalypts) compared to neighbouring trees of the same species. We argue that taxonomic and phenotypic diversity is likely to be important when foraging in habitats of low nutritional quality in providing diet choice to tradeoff nutrients and toxins and minimise movement costs. Our findings suggest that immediate nutritional concerns are an important priority of folivores in low-quality habitats and imply that nutritional limitations play an important role in constraining folivore populations. We show that, with a careful experimental design, it is possible to make inferences about populations of herbivores that exist at extremely low densities and thus achieve a better understanding about how plant composition influences herbivore ecology and persistence. PMID:25470599

Spatial variability and macro‐scale drivers of growth for native and introduced Flathead Catfish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massie, Danielle L.; Smith, Geoffrey; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bunch, Aaron J.; Lucchesi, David O.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Quantifying spatial variability in fish growth and identifying large‐scale drivers of growth are fundamental to many conservation and management decisions. Although fish growth studies often focus on a single population, it is becoming increasingly clear that large‐scale studies are likely needed for addressing transboundary management needs. This is particularly true for species with high recreational value and for those with negative ecological consequences when introduced outside of their native range, such as the Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris. This study quantified growth variability of the Flathead Catfish across a large portion of its contemporary range to determine whether growth differences existed between habitat types (i.e., reservoirs and rivers) and between native and introduced populations. Additionally, we investigated whether growth parameters varied as a function of latitude and time since introduction (for introduced populations). Length‐at‐age data from 26 populations across 11 states in the USA were modeled using a Bayesian hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model. Population‐specific growth trajectories revealed large variation in Flathead Catfish growth and relatively high uncertainty in growth parameters for some populations. Relatively high uncertainty was also evident when comparing populations and when quantifying large‐scale patterns. Growth parameters (Brody growth coefficient [K] and theoretical maximum average length [L∞]) were not different (based on overlapping 90% credible intervals) between habitat types or between native and introduced populations. For populations within the introduced range of Flathead Catfish, latitude was negatively correlated with K. For native populations, we estimated an 85% probability that L∞ estimates were negatively correlated with latitude. Contrary to predictions, time since introduction was not correlated with growth parameters in introduced populations of Flathead Catfish. Results of this study suggest that Flathead Catfish growth patterns are likely shaped more strongly by finer‐scale processes (e.g., exploitation or prey abundances) as opposed to macro‐scale drivers.

Space, race, and poverty: Spatial inequalities in walkable neighborhood amenities?

PubMed Central

Aldstadt, Jared; Whalen, John; White, Kellee; Castro, Marcia C.; Williams, David R.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Multiple and varied benefits have been suggested for increased neighborhood walkability. However, spatial inequalities in neighborhood walkability likely exist and may be attributable, in part, to residential segregation. OBJECTIVE Utilizing a spatial demographic perspective, we evaluated potential spatial inequalities in walkable neighborhood amenities across census tracts in Boston, MA (US). METHODS The independent variables included minority racial/ethnic population percentages and percent of families in poverty. Walkable neighborhood amenities were assessed with a composite measure. Spatial autocorrelation in key study variables were first calculated with the Global Moran’s I statistic. Then, Spearman correlations between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics and walkable neighborhood amenities were calculated as well as Spearman correlations accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We fit ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and spatial autoregressive models, when appropriate, as a final step. RESULTS Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was found in neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. census tract percent Black), but not walkable neighborhood amenities or in the OLS regression residuals. Spearman correlations between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics and walkable neighborhood amenities were not statistically significant, nor were neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics significantly associated with walkable neighborhood amenities in OLS regression models. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that there is residential segregation in Boston and that spatial inequalities do not necessarily show up using a composite measure. COMMENTS Future research in other geographic areas (including international contexts) and using different definitions of neighborhoods (including small-area definitions) should evaluate if spatial inequalities are found using composite measures but also should use measures of specific neighborhood amenities. PMID:29046612

Patterns of Deep-Sea Genetic Connectivity in the New Zealand Region: Implications for Management of Benthic Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Bors, Eleanor K.; Rowden, Ashley A.; Maas, Elizabeth W.; Clark, Malcolm R.; Shank, Timothy M.

2012-01-01

Patterns of genetic connectivity are increasingly considered in the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) in both shallow and deep water. In the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), deep-sea communities at upper bathyal depths (<2000 m) are vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbance from fishing and potential mining operations. Currently, patterns of genetic connectivity among deep-sea populations throughout New Zealand’s EEZ are not well understood. Using the mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase I and 16S rRNA genes as genetic markers, this study aimed to elucidate patterns of genetic connectivity among populations of two common benthic invertebrates with contrasting life history strategies. Populations of the squat lobster Munida gracilis and the polychaete Hyalinoecia longibranchiata were sampled from continental slope, seamount, and offshore rise habitats on the Chatham Rise, Hikurangi Margin, and Challenger Plateau. For the polychaete, significant population structure was detected among distinct populations on the Chatham Rise, the Hikurangi Margin, and the Challenger Plateau. Significant genetic differences existed between slope and seamount populations on the Hikurangi Margin, as did evidence of population differentiation between the northeast and southwest parts of the Chatham Rise. In contrast, no significant population structure was detected across the study area for the squat lobster. Patterns of genetic connectivity in Hyalinoecia longibranchiata are likely influenced by a number of factors including current regimes that operate on varying spatial and temporal scales to produce potential barriers to dispersal. The striking difference in population structure between species can be attributed to differences in life history strategies. The results of this study are discussed in the context of existing conservation areas that are intended to manage anthropogenic threats to deep-sea benthic communities in the New Zealand region. PMID:23185341

Habitat fragmentation effects on the orchid bee communities in remnant forests of southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Knoll, Fátima do Rosário Naschenveng; Penatti, N C

2012-10-01

The effect of habitat fragmentation on the structure of orchid bee communities was analyzed by the investigation of the existence of a spatial structure in the richness and abundance of Euglossini species and by determining the relationship between these data and environmental factors. The surveys were carried out in four different forest fragments and one university campus. Richness, abundance, and diversity of species were analyzed in relation to abiotic (size of the area, extent of the perimeter, perimeter/area ratio, and shape index) and biotic characteristics (vegetation index of the fragment and of the matrix of each of the locations studied). We observed a highly significant positive correlation between the diversity index and the vegetation index of the fragment, landscape and shape index. Our analysis demonstrated that the observed variation could be explained mainly by the vegetation index and the size of the fragment. Variations in relative abundance showed a tendency toward an aggregated spatial distribution between the fragments studied, as well as between the sampling stations within the same habitat, demonstrating the existence of a spatial structure on a small scale in the populations of Euglossini. This distribution will determine the composition of species that coexist in the area after fragmentation. These data help in understanding the differences and similarities in the structure of communities of Euglossini resulting from forest fragmentation.

Calcium transient prevalence across the dendritic arbour predicts place field properties.

PubMed

Sheffield, Mark E J; Dombeck, Daniel A

2015-01-08

Establishing the hippocampal cellular ensemble that represents an animal's environment involves the emergence and disappearance of place fields in specific CA1 pyramidal neurons, and the acquisition of different spatial firing properties across the active population. While such firing flexibility and diversity have been linked to spatial memory, attention and task performance, the cellular and network origin of these place cell features is unknown. Basic integrate-and-fire models of place firing propose that such features result solely from varying inputs to place cells, but recent studies suggest instead that place cells themselves may play an active role through regenerative dendritic events. However, owing to the difficulty of performing functional recordings from place cell dendrites, no direct evidence of regenerative dendritic events exists, leaving any possible connection to place coding unknown. Using multi-plane two-photon calcium imaging of CA1 place cell somata, axons and dendrites in mice navigating a virtual environment, here we show that regenerative dendritic events do exist in place cells of behaving mice, and, surprisingly, their prevalence throughout the arbour is highly spatiotemporally variable. Furthermore, we show that the prevalence of such events predicts the spatial precision and persistence or disappearance of place fields. This suggests that the dynamics of spiking throughout the dendritic arbour may play a key role in forming the hippocampal representation of space.

Calcium transient prevalence across the dendritic arbor predicts place field properties

PubMed Central

Sheffield, Mark E. J.; Dombeck, Daniel A.

2014-01-01

Establishing the hippocampal cellular ensemble that represents an animal’s environment involves the emergence and disappearance of place fields in specific CA1 pyramidal neurons1–4, and the acquisition of different spatial firing properties across the active population5. While such firing flexibility and diversity have been linked to spatial memory, attention and task performance6,7, the cellular and network origin of these place cell features is unknown. Basic integrate-and-fire models of place firing propose that such features result solely from varying inputs to place cells8,9, but recent studies3,10 instead suggest that place cells themselves may play an active role through regenerative dendritic events. However, due to the difficulty of performing functional recordings from place cell dendrites, no direct evidence of regenerative dendritic events exists, leaving any possible connection to place coding unknown. Using multi-plane two-photon calcium imaging of CA1 place cell somata, axons, and dendrites in mice navigating a virtual environment, we show that regenerative dendritic events do exist in place cells of behaving mice and, surprisingly, their prevalence throughout the arbor is highly spatiotemporally variable. Further, we show that the prevalence of such events predicts the spatial precision and persistence or disappearance of place fields. This suggests that the dynamics of spiking throughout the dendritic arbor may play a key role in forming the hippocampal representation of space. PMID:25363782

Network-based diffusion analysis reveals cultural transmission of lobtail feeding in humpback whales.

PubMed

Allen, Jenny; Weinrich, Mason; Hoppitt, Will; Rendell, Luke

2013-04-26

We used network-based diffusion analysis to reveal the cultural spread of a naturally occurring foraging innovation, lobtail feeding, through a population of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) over a period of 27 years. Support for models with a social transmission component was 6 to 23 orders of magnitude greater than for models without. The spatial and temporal distribution of sand lance, a prey species, was also important in predicting the rate of acquisition. Our results, coupled with existing knowledge about song traditions, show that this species can maintain multiple independently evolving traditions in its populations. These insights strengthen the case that cetaceans represent a peak in the evolution of nonhuman culture, independent of the primate lineage.

Spatial distribution of limited resources and local density regulation in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Finstad, Anders G; Einum, Sigurd; Ugedal, Ola; Forseth, Torbjørn

2009-01-01

1. Spatial heterogeneity of resources may influence competition among individuals and thus have a fundamental role in shaping population dynamics and carrying capacity. In the present study, we identify shelter opportunities as a limiting resource for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Experimental and field studies are combined in order to demonstrate how the spatial distribution of shelters may influence population dynamics on both within and among population scales. 2. In closed experimental streams, fish performance scaled negatively with decreasing shelter availability and increasing densities. In contrast, the fish in open stream channels dispersed according to shelter availability and performance of fish remaining in the streams did not depend on initial density or shelters. 3. The field study confirmed that spatial variation in densities of 1-year-old juveniles was governed both by initial recruit density and shelter availability. Strength of density-dependent population regulation, measured as carrying capacity, increased with decreasing number of shelters. 4. Nine rivers were surveyed for spatial variation in shelter availability and increased shelter heterogeneity tended to decrease maximum observed population size (measured using catch statistics of adult salmon as a proxy). 5. Our studies highlight the importance of small-scale within-population spatial structure in population dynamics and demonstrate that not only the absolute amount of limiting resources but also their spatial arrangement can be an important factor influencing population carrying capacity.

Accounting for connectivity and spatial correlation in the optimal placement of wildlife habitat

Treesearch

John Hof; Curtis H. Flather

1996-01-01

This paper investigates optimization approaches to simultaneously modelling habitat fragmentation and spatial correlation between patch populations. The problem is formulated with habitat connectivity affecting population means and variances, with spatial correlations accounted for in covariance calculations. Population with a pre-specifled confidence level is then...

Significant demographic and fine-scale genetic structure in expanding and senescing populations of the terrestrial orchid Cymbidium goeringii (Orchidaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Mi Yoon; Nason, John D; Chung, Myong Gi

2011-12-01

Fine-scale genetic structure (FSGS) in plants is influenced by variation in spatial and temporal demographic processes. To determine how demographic structure and FSGS change with stages of population succession, we studied replicate expanding and senescing populations of the Asian terrestrial orchid Cymbidium goeringii. We used spatial autocorrelation methods (O-ring and kinship statistics) to quantify spatial demographic structure and FSGS in two expanding and two senescing populations, also measuring genetic diversity and inbreeding in each. All populations exhibited significant aggregation of individuals and FSGS at short spatial scales. In expanding populations, this finding was associated with high recruitment rates, suggesting restricted seed dispersal. In senescing populations, recruitment was minimal, suggesting alternative mechanisms of aggregation, perhaps including spatial associations with mycorrhizal fungi. All populations had significant evidence of genetic bottlenecks, and inbreeding levels were consistently high. Our results indicate that different successional stages can generate similar patterns of spatial demographic and genetic structure, but as a consequence of different processes. These results contrast with the only other study of senescence effects on population genetic structure in an herbaceous perennial, which found little to no FSGS in senescing populations. With the exception of populations subject to mass collection by orchid sellers, significant FSGS is characteristic of the 16 terrestrial orchid species examined to date. From a conservation perspective, this result suggests that inference of orchid population history will benefit from analyses of both FSGS and demographic structure in combination with other ecological field data.

Stellar density distribution along the minor axis of the Large Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piatti, Andrés E.

2018-02-01

We studied the spatial distribution of young and old stellar populations along the western half part of the minor axis of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) using Washington MT1 photometry of selected fields, which span a deprojected distance range from the LMC bar centre out to ∼31.6 kpc. We found that both stellar populations share a mean LMC limiting radius of 8.9 ± 0.4 kpc; old populations are three times more dense than young populations at that LMC limit. When comparing this result with recent values for the LMC extension due to north, the old populations resulted significantly more elongated than the young ones. Bearing in mind previous claims that the elongation of the outermost LMC regions may be due to the tidal effects of the Milky Way (MW), our findings suggest that such a tidal interaction should not have taken place recently. The existence of young populations in the outermost western regions also supports previous results about ram pressure stripping effects of the LMC gaseous disc due to the motion of the LMC in the MW halo.

Restoration over time and sustainability of Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi.

PubMed

Álvares-Carvalho, S V; Silva-Mann, R; Gois, I B; Melo, M F V; Oliveira, A S; Ferreira, R A; Gomes, L J

2017-05-31

The success of recovery programs on degraded areas is dependent on the genetic material to be used, which should present heterozygosity and genetic diversity in native and recovered populations. This study was carried out to evaluate the model efficiency to enable the recovery of a degraded area of the Lower São Francisco, Sergipe, Brazil. The target species for this study was Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi. Three populations were analyzed, the recovered area, seed-tree source population, and native tree population border established to the recovered area. The random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers were used for diversity analysis. Genetic structure was estimated to evaluate the level of genetic variability existent in each population. There was no correlation between the spatial distribution and the genetic distances for all trees of the recovered area. The heterozygosity present in the recovered population was higher than the native tree population. The seed-tree source population presents genetic bottlenecks. Three clusters were suggested (ΔK = 3) with non-genetic structure. High intra-population genetic variability and inter-population differentiation are present. However, gene flow may also introduce potentially adaptive alleles in the populations of the recovered area, and the native population is necessary to ensure the sustainability and maintenance of the populations by allelic exchange.

The seascape of demersal fish nursery areas in the North Mediterranean Sea, a first step towards the implementation of spatial planning for trawl fisheries.

PubMed

Colloca, Francesco; Garofalo, Germana; Bitetto, Isabella; Facchini, Maria Teresa; Grati, Fabio; Martiradonna, Angela; Mastrantonio, Gianluca; Nikolioudakis, Nikolaos; Ordinas, Francesc; Scarcella, Giuseppe; Tserpes, George; Tugores, M Pilar; Valavanis, Vasilis; Carlucci, Roberto; Fiorentino, Fabio; Follesa, Maria C; Iglesias, Magdalena; Knittweis, Leyla; Lefkaditou, Eugenia; Lembo, Giuseppe; Manfredi, Chiara; Massutí, Enric; Pace, Marie Louise; Papadopoulou, Nadia; Sartor, Paolo; Smith, Christopher J; Spedicato, Maria Teresa

2015-01-01

The identification of nursery grounds and other essential fish habitats of exploited stocks is a key requirement for the development of spatial conservation planning aimed at reducing the adverse impact of fishing on the exploited populations and ecosystems. The reduction in juvenile mortality is particularly relevant in the Mediterranean and is considered as one of the main prerequisites for the future sustainability of trawl fisheries. The distribution of nursery areas of 11 important commercial species of demersal fish and shellfish was analysed in the European Union Mediterranean waters using time series of bottom trawl survey data with the aim of identifying the most persistent recruitment areas. A high interspecific spatial overlap between nursery areas was mainly found along the shelf break of many different sectors of the Northern Mediterranean indicating a high potential for the implementation of conservation measures. Overlap of the nursery grounds with existing spatial fisheries management measures and trawl fisheries restricted areas was also investigated. Spatial analyses revealed considerable variation depending on species and associated habitat/depth preferences with increased protection seen in coastal nurseries and minimal protection seen for deeper nurseries (e.g. Parapenaeus longirostris 6%). This is partly attributed to existing environmental policy instruments (e.g. Habitats Directive and Mediterranean Regulation EC 1967/2006) aiming at minimising impacts on coastal priority habitats such as seagrass, coralligenous and maerl beds. The new knowledge on the distribution and persistence of demersal nurseries provided in this study can support the application of spatial conservation measures, such as the designation of no-take Marine Protected Areas in EU Mediterranean waters and their inclusion in a conservation network. The establishment of no-take zones will be consistent with the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy applying the ecosystem approach to fisheries management and with the requirements of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive to maintain or achieve seafloor integrity and good environmental status.

The Seascape of Demersal Fish Nursery Areas in the North Mediterranean Sea, a First Step Towards the Implementation of Spatial Planning for Trawl Fisheries

PubMed Central

Colloca, Francesco; Garofalo, Germana; Bitetto, Isabella; Facchini, Maria Teresa; Grati, Fabio; Martiradonna, Angela; Mastrantonio, Gianluca; Nikolioudakis, Nikolaos; Ordinas, Francesc; Scarcella, Giuseppe; Tserpes, George; Tugores, M. Pilar; Valavanis, Vasilis; Carlucci, Roberto; Fiorentino, Fabio; Follesa, Maria C.; Iglesias, Magdalena; Knittweis, Leyla; Lefkaditou, Eugenia; Lembo, Giuseppe; Manfredi, Chiara; Massutí, Enric; Pace, Marie Louise; Papadopoulou, Nadia; Sartor, Paolo; Smith, Christopher J.; Spedicato, Maria Teresa

2015-01-01

The identification of nursery grounds and other essential fish habitats of exploited stocks is a key requirement for the development of spatial conservation planning aimed at reducing the adverse impact of fishing on the exploited populations and ecosystems. The reduction in juvenile mortality is particularly relevant in the Mediterranean and is considered as one of the main prerequisites for the future sustainability of trawl fisheries. The distribution of nursery areas of 11 important commercial species of demersal fish and shellfish was analysed in the European Union Mediterranean waters using time series of bottom trawl survey data with the aim of identifying the most persistent recruitment areas. A high interspecific spatial overlap between nursery areas was mainly found along the shelf break of many different sectors of the Northern Mediterranean indicating a high potential for the implementation of conservation measures. Overlap of the nursery grounds with existing spatial fisheries management measures and trawl fisheries restricted areas was also investigated. Spatial analyses revealed considerable variation depending on species and associated habitat/depth preferences with increased protection seen in coastal nurseries and minimal protection seen for deeper nurseries (e.g. Parapenaeus longirostris 6%). This is partly attributed to existing environmental policy instruments (e.g. Habitats Directive and Mediterranean Regulation EC 1967/2006) aiming at minimising impacts on coastal priority habitats such as seagrass, coralligenous and maerl beds. The new knowledge on the distribution and persistence of demersal nurseries provided in this study can support the application of spatial conservation measures, such as the designation of no-take Marine Protected Areas in EU Mediterranean waters and their inclusion in a conservation network. The establishment of no-take zones will be consistent with the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy applying the ecosystem approach to fisheries management and with the requirements of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive to maintain or achieve seafloor integrity and good environmental status. PMID:25785737

Novel probabilistic models of spatial genetic ancestry with applications to stratification correction in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Bhaskar, Anand; Javanmard, Adel; Courtade, Thomas A; Tse, David

2017-03-15

Genetic variation in human populations is influenced by geographic ancestry due to spatial locality in historical mating and migration patterns. Spatial population structure in genetic datasets has been traditionally analyzed using either model-free algorithms, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling, or using explicit spatial probabilistic models of allele frequency evolution. We develop a general probabilistic model and an associated inference algorithm that unify the model-based and data-driven approaches to visualizing and inferring population structure. Our spatial inference algorithm can also be effectively applied to the problem of population stratification in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), where hidden population structure can create fictitious associations when population ancestry is correlated with both the genotype and the trait. Our algorithm Geographic Ancestry Positioning (GAP) relates local genetic distances between samples to their spatial distances, and can be used for visually discerning population structure as well as accurately inferring the spatial origin of individuals on a two-dimensional continuum. On both simulated and several real datasets from diverse human populations, GAP exhibits substantially lower error in reconstructing spatial ancestry coordinates compared to PCA. We also develop an association test that uses the ancestry coordinates inferred by GAP to accurately account for ancestry-induced correlations in GWAS. Based on simulations and analysis of a dataset of 10 metabolic traits measured in a Northern Finland cohort, which is known to exhibit significant population structure, we find that our method has superior power to current approaches. Our software is available at https://github.com/anand-bhaskar/gap . abhaskar@stanford.edu or ajavanma@usc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Identifying Genetic Hotspots by Mapping Molecular Diversity of Widespread Trees: When Commonness Matters.

PubMed

Souto, Cintia P; Mathiasen, Paula; Acosta, María Cristina; Quiroga, María Paula; Vidal-Russell, Romina; Echeverría, Cristian; Premoli, Andrea C

2015-01-01

Conservation planning requires setting priorities at the same spatial scale at which decision-making processes are undertaken considering all levels of biodiversity, but current methods for identifying biodiversity hotspots ignore its genetic component. We developed a fine-scale approach based on the definition of genetic hotspots, which have high genetic diversity and unique variants that represent their evolutionary potential and evolutionary novelties. Our hypothesis is that wide-ranging taxa with similar ecological tolerances, yet of phylogenetically independent lineages, have been and currently are shaped by ecological and evolutionary forces that result in geographically concordant genetic patterns. We mapped previously published genetic diversity and unique variants of biparentally inherited markers and chloroplast sequences for 9 species from 188 and 275 populations, respectively, of the 4 woody dominant families of the austral temperate forest, an area considered a biodiversity hotspot. Spatial distribution patterns of genetic polymorphisms differed among taxa according to their ecological tolerances. Eight genetic hotspots were detected and we recommend conservation actions for some in the southern Coastal Range in Chile. Existing spatially explicit genetic data from multiple populations and species can help to identify biodiversity hotspots and guide conservation actions to establish science-based protected areas that will preserve the evolutionary potential of key habitats and species. © The American Genetic Association 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial Assessment of the Association between Long-Term Exposure to Environmental Factors and the Occurrence of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in Catalonia, Spain: A Population-Based Nested Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Povedano, Mònica; Saez, Marc; Martínez-Matos, Juan-Antonio; Barceló, Maria Antònia

2018-05-31

It is believed that an interaction between genetic and non-genetic factors may be involved in the development of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). With the exception of exposure to agricultural chemicals like pesticides, evidence of an association between environmental risk factors and ALS is inconsistent. Our objective here was to investigate the association between long-term exposure to environmental factors and the occurrence of ALS in Catalonia, Spain, and to provide evidence that spatial clusters of ALS related to these environmental factors exist. We carried out a nested case-control study constructed from a retrospective population-based cohort, covering the entire region. Environmental variables were the explanatory variables of interest. We controlled for both observed and unobserved confounders. We have found some spatial clusters of ALS. The results from the multivariate model suggest that these clusters could be related to some of the environmental variables, in particular agricultural chemicals. In addition, in high-risk clusters, besides corresponding to agricultural areas, key road infrastructures with a high density of traffic are also located. Our results indicate that some environmental factors, in particular those associated with exposure to pesticides and air pollutants as a result of urban traffic, could be associated with the occurrence of ALS. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Globular cluster seeding by primordial black hole population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolgov, A.; Postnov, K., E-mail: dolgov@fe.infn.it, E-mail: kpostnov@gmail.com

Primordial black holes (PBHs) that form in the early Universe in the modified Affleck-Dine (AD) mechanism of baryogenesis should have intrinsic log-normal mass distribution of PBHs. We show that the parameters of this distribution adjusted to provide the required spatial density of massive seeds (≥ 10{sup 4} M {sub ⊙}) for early galaxy formation and not violating the dark matter density constraints, predict the existence of the population of intermediate-mass PBHs with a number density of 0∼ 100 Mpc{sup −3}. We argue that the population of intermediate-mass AD PBHs can also seed the formation of globular clusters in galaxies. Inmore » this scenario, each globular cluster should host an intermediate-mass black hole with a mass of a few thousand solar masses, and should not obligatorily be immersed in a massive dark matter halo.« less

High Spatial Resolution of Atmospheric Particle Mixing State and Its Links to Particle Evolution in a Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Q.; Gu, P.; Li, H.; Robinson, E. S.; Apte, J.; Sullivan, R. C.; Robinson, A. L.; Presto, A. A.; Donahue, N.

2017-12-01

Traditional air quality studies in urban areas have mostly relied on very few monitoring locations either at urban background sites or at roadside sites.However, air pollution is highly complex and dynamic and will undergo complicated transformations. Therefore, results from one or two monitoring sites may not be sufficient to address the spatial gradients of pollutants and their evolution after atmosphere processing on a local scale. Our study, as part of the Center for Air, Climate, and Energy Solutions, performed stratified mobile sampling of atmospheric particulate matter with high spatial resolution to address intra-city variability of atmospheric particle composition and mixing state. A suite of comprehensive real-time instrumentations including a state-of-the-art aerosol mass spectrometer with single particle measurement capability are deployed on the mobile platform. Our sampling locations covered a wide variety of places with substantial differences in emissions and land use types including tunnels, inter-state highways, commercial areas, residential neighborhood, parks, as well as locations upwind and downwind of the city center. Our results show that particles from traffic emissions and restaurant cookings are two major contributors to fresh particles in the urban environment. In addition, there are large spatial variabilities of source-specific particles and we identify the relevant physicochemical processes governing transformation of particle composition, size and mixing state. We also combine our results with demographic data to study population exposure to particles of specific sources. This work will help evaluate the performance of existing modeling tools for air quality and population exposure studies.

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

Visual- spatial capacity: gender and sport differences in young volleyball and tennis athletes and non-athletes.

PubMed

Notarnicola, Angela; Maccagnano, Giuseppe; Pesce, Vito; Tafuri, Silvio; Novielli, Grazia; Moretti, Biagio

2014-01-21

In the general population visual-spatial ability is better in males, due to the influence of biological and socio-cultural factors. We know that sport activity improves motor skills. The aim of this work is to determine if these gender differences exist in young athletes. The orientation test described by Terzi and standardized by Cesaroni, used to measure spatial ability, was carried out on 60 volleyball or 60 tennis athletes as well as on 60 non-sporting subjects. The data analysis revealed a worse performance for non-athletes in comparison with athletes in both components of test (p < 0.0001; p = 0.04), with no differences between the volleyball and tennis groups. As far as gender comparison is concerned, as expected in the non- sport group the males presented better values (p < 0.001; p = 0.006). However in both sports groups there weren't any gender differences in either part of the test (p = 0.18; p = 0.056). These results confirm that during athletic preparation in volleyball and tennis the specific training is able to develop spatial ability. Besides, boys and girls have similar performance demands and training experience. It appears that this specific training could be responsible for modifying gender differences in performance of spatial ability during adolescence.

Spatial updating in area LIP is independent of saccade direction.

PubMed

Heiser, Laura M; Colby, Carol L

2006-05-01

We explore the world around us by making rapid eye movements to objects of interest. Remarkably, these eye movements go unnoticed, and we perceive the world as stable. Spatial updating is one of the neural mechanisms that contributes to this perception of spatial constancy. Previous studies in macaque lateral intraparietal cortex (area LIP) have shown that individual neurons update, or "remap," the locations of salient visual stimuli at the time of an eye movement. The existence of remapping implies that neurons have access to visual information from regions far beyond the classically defined receptive field. We hypothesized that neurons have access to information located anywhere in the visual field. We tested this by recording the activity of LIP neurons while systematically varying the direction in which a stimulus location must be updated. Our primary finding is that individual neurons remap stimulus traces in multiple directions, indicating that LIP neurons have access to information throughout the visual field. At the population level, stimulus traces are updated in conjunction with all saccade directions, even when we consider direction as a function of receptive field location. These results show that spatial updating in LIP is effectively independent of saccade direction. Our findings support the hypothesis that the activity of LIP neurons contributes to the maintenance of spatial constancy throughout the visual field.

Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

2016-01-01

Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

Dispersal leads to spatial autocorrelation in species distributions: A simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; Krohn, W.B.; O'Connor, R.J.

2008-01-01

Compared to population growth regulated by local conditions, dispersal has been underappreciated as a central process shaping the spatial distribution of populations. This paper asks: (a) which conditions increase the importance of dispersers relative to local recruits in determining population sizes? and (b) how does dispersal influence the spatial distribution patterns of abundances among connected populations? We approached these questions with a simulation model of populations on a coupled lattice with cells of continuously varying habitat quality expressed as carrying capacities. Each cell contained a population with the basic dynamics of density-regulated growth, and was connected to other populations by immigration and emigration. The degree to which dispersal influenced the distribution of population sizes depended most strongly on the absolute amount of dispersal, and then on the potential population growth rate. Dispersal decaying in intensity with distance left close neighbours more alike in population size than distant populations, leading to an increase in spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distribution of species with low potential growth rates is more dependent on dispersal than that of species with high growth rates; therefore, distribution modelling for species with low growth rates requires particular attention to autocorrelation, and conservation management of these species requires attention to factors curtailing dispersal, such as fragmentation and dispersal barriers. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Swarming Patterns in a Two-Dimensional Kinematic Model for Biological Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topaz, Chad

2004-03-01

We construct a continuum model for the motion of biological organisms experiencing social interactions and study its pattern-forming behavior. The model takes the form of a conservation law in two spatial dimensions. Social interactions are modeled in the velocity term, which is nonlocal in the population density. The dynamics of the model may be uniquely decomposed into incompressible motion and potential motion. For the purely incompressible case, the model resembles that for fluid dynamical vortex patches. There exist solutions that have constant population density and compact support for all time. Numerical simulations produce rotating structures with circular cores and spiral arms, reminiscent of naturally observed swarms such as ant mills. For the purely potential case, the model resembles a nonlocal (forwards or backwards) porous media equation, describing aggregation or dispersion of the population. For the aggregative case, the population clumps into regions of high and low density with a predictable characteristic length scale that is confirmed by numerical simulations.

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Limaye, Ashutosh; Johnson, Hoyt; Quattrochi, Dale; Lapenta, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

The spatial epidemiology of cocaine, methamphetamine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) use: a demonstration using a population measure of community drug load derived from municipal wastewater.

PubMed

Banta-Green, Caleb J; Field, Jennifer A; Chiaia, Aurea C; Sudakin, Daniel L; Power, Laura; de Montigny, Luc

2009-11-01

To determine the utility of community-wide drug testing with wastewater samples as a population measure of community drug use and to test the hypothesis that the association with urbanicity would vary for three different stimulant drugs of abuse. Single-day samples were obtained from a convenience sample of 96 municipalities representing 65% of the population of the State of Oregon. Chemical analysis of 24-hour composite influent samples for benzoylecgonine (BZE, a cocaine metabolite), methamphetamine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). The distribution of community index drug loads accounting for total wastewater flow (i.e. dilution) and population are reported. The distribution of wastewater-derived drug index loads was found to correspond with expected epidemiological drug patterns. Index loads of BZE were significantly higher in urban areas and below detection in many rural areas. Conversely, methamphetamine was present in all municipalities, with no significant differences in index loads by urbanicity. MDMA was at quantifiable levels in fewer than half the communities, with a significant trend towards higher index loads in more urban areas. CONCLUSION; This demonstration provides the first evidence of the utility of wastewater-derived community drug loads for spatial analyses. Such data have the potential to improve dramatically the measurement of the true level and distribution of a range of drugs. Drug index load data provide information for all people in a community and are potentially applicable to a much larger proportion of the total population than existing measures.

A new urban landscape in East-Southeast Asia, 2000-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, A.; Mertes, C. M.; Tatem, A. J.; Tan, B.; Sulla-Menashe, D.; Graves, S. J.; Patel, N. N.; Horton, J. A.; Gaughan, A. E.; Rollo, J. T.; Schelly, I. H.; Stevens, F. R.; Dastur, A.

2015-03-01

East-Southeast Asia is currently one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the world, with countries such as China climbing from 20 to 50% urbanized in just a few decades. By 2050, these countries are projected to add 1 billion people, with 90% of that growth occurring in cities. This population shift parallels an equally astounding amount of built-up land expansion. However, spatially-and temporally-detailed information on regional-scale changes in urban land or population distribution do not exist; previous efforts have been either sample-based, focused on one country, or drawn conclusions from datasets with substantial temporal/spatial mismatch and variability in urban definitions. Using consistent methodology, satellite imagery and census data for >1000 agglomerations in the East-Southeast Asian region, we show that urban land increased >22% between 2000 and 2010 (from 155 000 to 189 000 km2), an amount equivalent to the area of Taiwan, while urban populations climbed >31% (from 738 to 969 million). Although urban land expanded at unprecedented rates, urban populations grew more rapidly, resulting in increasing densities for the majority of urban agglomerations, including those in both more developed (Japan, South Korea) and industrializing nations (China, Vietnam, Indonesia). This result contrasts previous sample-based studies, which conclude that cities are universally declining in density. The patterns and rates of change uncovered by these datasets provide a unique record of the massive urban transition currently underway in East-Southeast Asia that is impacting local-regional climate, pollution levels, water quality/availability, arable land, as well as the livelihoods and vulnerability of populations in the region.

Urban population genetics of slum-dwelling rats (Rattus norvegicus) in Salvador, Brazil.

PubMed

Kajdacsi, Brittney; Costa, Federico; Hyseni, Chaz; Porter, Fleur; Brown, Julia; Rodrigues, Gorete; Farias, Helena; Reis, Mitermayer G; Childs, James E; Ko, Albert I; Caccone, Adalgisa

2013-10-01

Throughout the developing world, urban centres with sprawling slum settlements are rapidly expanding and invading previously forested ecosystems. Slum communities are characterized by untended refuse, open sewers and overgrown vegetation, which promote rodent infestation. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) are reservoirs for epidemic transmission of many zoonotic pathogens of public health importance. Understanding the population ecology of R. norvegicus is essential to formulate effective rodent control strategies, as this knowledge aids estimation of the temporal stability and spatial connectivity of populations. We screened for genetic variation, characterized the population genetic structure and evaluated the extent and patterns of gene flow in the urban landscape using 17 microsatellite loci in 146 rats from nine sites in the city of Salvador, Brazil. These sites were divided between three neighbourhoods within the city spaced an average of 2.7 km apart. Surprisingly, we detected very little relatedness among animals trapped at the same site and found high levels of genetic diversity, as well as structuring across small geographical distances. Most F(ST) comparisons among sites were statistically significant, including sites <400 m apart. Bayesian analyses grouped the samples in three genetic clusters, each associated with distinct sampling sites from different neighbourhoods or valleys within neighbourhoods. These data indicate the existence of complex genetic structure in R. norvegicus in Salvador, linked to the heterogeneous urban landscape. Future rodent control measures need to take into account the spatial and temporal linkage of rat populations in Salvador, as revealed by genetic data, to develop informed eradication strategies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Spatial Statistical Model for Landscape Genetics

PubMed Central

Guillot, Gilles; Estoup, Arnaud; Mortier, Frédéric; Cosson, Jean François

2005-01-01

Landscape genetics is a new discipline that aims to provide information on how landscape and environmental features influence population genetic structure. The first key step of landscape genetics is the spatial detection and location of genetic discontinuities between populations. However, efficient methods for achieving this task are lacking. In this article, we first clarify what is conceptually involved in the spatial modeling of genetic data. Then we describe a Bayesian model implemented in a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme that allows inference of the location of such genetic discontinuities from individual geo-referenced multilocus genotypes, without a priori knowledge on populational units and limits. In this method, the global set of sampled individuals is modeled as a spatial mixture of panmictic populations, and the spatial organization of populations is modeled through the colored Voronoi tessellation. In addition to spatially locating genetic discontinuities, the method quantifies the amount of spatial dependence in the data set, estimates the number of populations in the studied area, assigns individuals to their population of origin, and detects individual migrants between populations, while taking into account uncertainty on the location of sampled individuals. The performance of the method is evaluated through the analysis of simulated data sets. Results show good performances for standard data sets (e.g., 100 individuals genotyped at 10 loci with 10 alleles per locus), with high but also low levels of population differentiation (e.g., FST < 0.05). The method is then applied to a set of 88 individuals of wolverines (Gulo gulo) sampled in the northwestern United States and genotyped at 10 microsatellites. PMID:15520263

Analysis of suicide mortality in Brazil: spatial distribution and socioeconomic context.

PubMed

Dantas, Ana P; Azevedo, Ulicélia N de; Nunes, Aryelly D; Amador, Ana E; Marques, Marilane V; Barbosa, Isabelle R

2018-01-01

To perform a spatial analysis of suicide mortality and its correlation with socioeconomic indicators in Brazilian municipalities. This is an ecological study with Brazilian municipalities as a unit of analysis. Data on deaths from suicide and contextual variables were analyzed. The spatial distribution, intensity and significance of the clusters were analyzed with the global Moran index, MoranMap and local indicators of spatial association (LISA), seeking to identify patterns through geostatistical analysis. A total of 50,664 deaths from suicide were registered in Brazil between 2010 and 2014. The average suicide mortality rate in Brazil was 5.23/100,000 population. The Brazilian municipalities presenting the highest rates were Taipas do Tocantins, state of Tocantins (79.68 deaths per 100,000 population), Itaporã, state of Mato Grosso do Sul (75.15 deaths per 100,000 population), Mampituba, state of Rio Grande do Sul (52.98 deaths per 100,000 population), Paranhos, state of Mato Grosso do Sul (52.41 deaths per 100,000 population), and Monjolos, state of Minas Gerais (52.08 deaths per 100,000 population). Although weak spatial autocorrelation was observed for suicide mortality (I = 0.2608), there was a formation of clusters in the South. In the bivariate spatial and classical analysis, no correlation was observed between suicide mortality and contextual variables. Suicide mortality in Brazil presents a weak spatial correlation and low or no spatial relationship with socioeconomic factors.

The Role of Mechanical Variance and Spatial Clustering on the Likelihood of Tumor Incidence and Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzakhel, Zibah

When considering factors that contribute to cancer progression, modifications to both the biological and mechanical pathways play significant roles. However, less attention is placed on how the mechanical pathways can specifically contribute to cancerous behavior. Experimental studies have found that malignant cells are significantly softer than healthy, normal cells. In a tissue environment where healthy or malignant cells exist, a distribution of cell stiffness values is observed, with the mean values used to differentiate between these two populations. Rather than focus on the mean values, emphasis will be placed on the distribution, where instances of soft and stiff cells exist in the healthy tissue environment. Since cell deformability is a trait associated with cancer, the question arises as to whether the mechanical variation observed in healthy tissue cell stiffness distributions can influence any instances of tumor growth. To approach this, a 3D discrete model of cells is used, able to monitor and predict the behavior of individual cells while determining any instances of tumor growth in a healthy tissue. In addition to the mechanical variance, the spatial arrangement of cells will also be modeled, as cell interaction could further implicate any incidences of tumor-like malignant populations within the tissue. Results have shown that the likelihood of tumor incidence is driven by both by the increases in the mechanical variation in the distributions as well as larger clustering of cells that are mechanically similar, quantified primarily through higher proliferation rates of tumor-like soft cells. This can be observed though prominent negative shifts in the mean of the distribution, as it begins to transition and show instances of earlystage tumor growth. The model reveals the impact that both the mechanical variation and spatial arrangement of cells has on tumor progression, suggesting the use of these parameters as potential novel biomarkers. With a patient-specific approach in mind, the model may be applied for early-stage cancer detection, useful to establish a timeline on tumor progression.

Major metropolis rail system access to dental care for the retired and elderly: a high-resolution geographic study of Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Zainab, Uswa-I; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

2015-12-01

This study examined the spatial accessibility of the Sydney Dental Hospital, to the people of metropolitan Sydney, using a geographic information systems approach. Sydney, Australia's largest city and the state capital of New South Wales, has 4.6 million people, with one-fifth of the Australian population (4.6 million people). Public dental services exist, but accessibility is limited to some specific population groups, who meet specific eligibility criteria. All adults (those older than 15 years) were included in the study, and two subsets of this population, retirees (older than 65 years) and elderly (older than 85 years), were also examined according to their proximity to the Sydney Dental Hospital, which is located immediately adjacent to the central train station. Census data (population data) and train station geo-coding data were integrated with high-resolution geographic information systems to analyse population spatial accessibility. Irrespective of the socioeconomic status, it was found that 43% of all the adults, 42.5% of the retirees and 41.6% of elders lived 2 km away from the nearest train station. Two-thirds of those in lower socioeconomic status lived within 2 km of a train station, whilst half of those in the higher socioeconomic status groups lived within 2 km from a train station. Metropolitan Sydney is an example of good urban planning where train stations are appropriately placed in high population density and low socioeconomic areas. The same should be investigated in other major metropolises, especially those still in growth and planning transportation systems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

PubMed

Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

2009-08-31

Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future researchers.

Hierarchical spatial genetic structure of Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima) breeding along a migratory corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, S.A.; Talbot, S.L.; Lanctot, Richard B.; Scribner, K.T.; McCracken, K.G.

2009-01-01

Documentation of spatial genetic discordance among breeding populations of Arctic-nesting avian species is important, because anthropogenic change is altering environmental linkages at micro- and macrogeographic scales. We estimated levels of population subdivision within Pacific Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) breeding on 12 barrier islands in the western Beaufort Sea, Alaska, using molecular markers and capture—mark—recapture (CMR) data. Common Eider populations were genetically structured on a microgeographic scale. Regional comparisons between populations breeding on island groups separated by 90 km (Mikkelsen Bay and Simpson Lagoon) revealed structuring at 14 microsatellite loci (F ST = 0.004, P < 0.01), a nuclear intron (F ST = 0.022, P = 0.02), and mitochondrial DNA (ΦST = 0.082, P < 0.05). The CMR data (n = 34) did not indicate female dispersal between island groups. Concordance between genetic and CMR data indicates that females breeding in the western Beaufort Sea are strongly philopatric to island groups rather than to a particular island. Despite the apparent high site fidelity of females, coalescence-based models of gene flow suggest that asymmetrical western dispersal occurs between island groups and is likely mediated by Mikkelsen Bay females stopping early on spring migration at Simpson Lagoon to breed. Alternatively, late-arriving females may be predisposed to nest in Simpson Lagoon because of the greater availability and wider distribution of nesting habitat. Our results indicate that genetic discontinuities, mediated by female philopatry, can exist at microgeographic scales along established migratory corridors.

A new gridded on-road CO2 emissions inventory for the United States, 1980-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gately, C.; Hutyra, L.; Sue Wing, I.

2013-12-01

On-road transportation is responsible for 28% of all U.S. fossil fuel CO2 emissions. However, mapping vehicle emissions at regional scales is challenging due to data limitations. Existing emission inventories have used spatial proxies such as population and road density to downscale national or state level data, which may introduce errors where the proxy variables and actual emissions are weakly correlated. We have developed a national on-road emissions inventory product based on roadway-level traffic data obtained from the Highway Performance Monitoring System. We produce annual estimates of on-road CO2 emissions at a 1km spatial resolution for the contiguous United States for the years 1980 through 2011. For the year 2011 we also produce an hourly emissions product at the 1km scale using hourly traffic volumes from hundreds of automated traffic counters across the country. National on-road emissions rose at roughly 2% per year from 1980 to 2006, with emissions peaking at 1.71 Tg CO2 in 2007. However, while national emissions have declined 6% since the peak, we observe considerable regional variation in emissions trends post-2007. While many states show stable or declining on-road emissions, several states and metropolitan areas in the Midwest, mountain west and south had emissions increases of 3-10% from 2008 to 2011. Our emissions estimates are consistent with state-reported totals of gasoline and diesel fuel consumption. This is in contrast to on-road CO2 emissions estimated by the Emissions Database of Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), which we show to be inconsistent in matching on-road emissions to published fuel consumption at the scale of U.S. states, due to the non-linear relationships between emissions and EDGAR's chosen spatial proxies at these scales. Since our emissions estimates were generated independent of population density and other demographic data, we were able to conduct a panel regression analysis to estimate the relationship between these variables and on-road CO2 at various spatial scales. In the case of Massachusetts we find a non-linear relationship between emissions and population density indicating that increasing density resulted in increased emissions when density is less than 2000 persons-km-2. These results highlight the value of using an emissions inventory with high spatial and temporal resolution. At coarser spatial scales, much of the variation in population density and on-road emissions between towns is lost due to aggregation. The high spatial resolution and broad temporal scope of our CO2 estimates provides a basis for analyses to support emissions monitoring, verification and mitigation policies at regional, state and local scale.

Spatial disparity in the distribution of superfund sites in South Carolina: an ecological study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background According to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Superfund is a federal government program implemented to clean up uncontrolled hazardous waste sites. Twenty-six sites in South Carolina (SC) have been included on the National Priorities List (NPL), which has serious human health and environmental implications. The purpose of this study was to assess spatial disparities in the distribution of Superfund sites in SC. Methods The 2000 US census tract and block level data were used to generate population characteristics, which included race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), education, home ownership, and home built before 1950. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to map Superfund facilities and develop choropleth maps based on the aforementioned sociodemographic variables. Spatial methods, including mean and median distance analysis, buffer analysis, and spatial approximation were employed to characterize burden disparities. Regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between the number of Superfund facilities and population characteristics. Results Spatial coincidence results showed that of the 29.5% of Blacks living in SC, 55.9% live in Superfund host census tracts. Among all populations in SC living below poverty (14.2%), 57.2% were located in Superfund host census tracts. Buffer analyses results (0.5mi, 1.0mi, 5.0mi, 0.5km, 1.0km, and 5.0km) showed a higher percentage of Whites compared to Blacks hosting a Superfund facility. Conversely, a slightly higher percentage of Blacks hosted (30.2%) a Superfund facility than those not hosting (28.8%) while their White counterparts had more equivalent values (66.7% and 67.8%, respectively). Regression analyses in the reduced model (Adj. R2 = 0.038) only explained a small percentage of the variance. In addition, the mean distance for percent of Blacks in the 90th percentile for Superfund facilities was 0.48mi. Conclusion Burden disparities exist in the distribution of Superfund facilities in SC at the block and census tract levels across varying levels of demographic composition for race/ethnicity and SES. PMID:24195573

Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birrell, Paul J.; Zhang, Xu-Sheng; Pebody, Richard G.; Gay, Nigel J.; de Angelis, Daniela

2016-07-01

Understanding how the geographic distribution of and movements within a population influence the spatial spread of infections is crucial for the design of interventions to curb transmission. Existing knowledge is typically based on results from simulation studies whereas analyses of real data remain sparse. The main difficulty in quantifying the spatial pattern of disease spread is the paucity of available data together with the challenge of incorporating optimally the limited information into models of disease transmission. To address this challenge the role of routine migration on the spatial pattern of infection during the epidemic of 2009 pandemic influenza in England is investigated here through two modelling approaches: parallel-region models, where epidemics in different regions are assumed to occur in isolation with shared characteristics; and meta-region models where inter-region transmission is expressed as a function of the commuter flux between regions. Results highlight that the significantly less computationally demanding parallel-region approach is sufficiently flexible to capture the underlying dynamics. This suggests that inter-region movement is either inaccurately characterized by the available commuting data or insignificant once its initial impact on transmission has subsided.

Annual economic impacts of seasonal influenza on US counties: Spatial heterogeneity and patterns

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Economic impacts of seasonal influenza vary across US counties, but little estimation has been conducted at the county level. This research computed annual economic costs of seasonal influenza for 3143 US counties based on Census 2010, identified inherent spatial patterns, and investigated cost-benefits of vaccination strategies. The computing model modified existing methods for national level estimation, and further emphasized spatial variations between counties, in terms of population size, age structure, influenza activity, and income level. Upon such a model, four vaccination strategies that prioritize different types of counties were simulated and their net returns were examined. The results indicate that the annual economic costs of influenza varied from $13.9 thousand to $957.5 million across US counties, with a median of $2.47 million. Prioritizing vaccines to counties with high influenza attack rates produces the lowest influenza cases and highest net returns. This research fills the current knowledge gap by downscaling the estimation to a county level, and adds spatial variability into studies of influenza economics and interventions. Compared to the national estimates, the presented statistics and maps will offer detailed guidance for local health agencies to fight against influenza. PMID:22594494

Decreasing child mortality, spatial clustering and decreasing disparity in North-Western Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Becher, Heiko; Müller, Olaf; Dambach, Peter; Gabrysch, Sabine; Niamba, Louis; Sankoh, Osman; Simboro, Seraphin; Schoeps, Anja; Stieglbauer, Gabriele; Yé, Yazoume; Sié, Ali

2016-04-01

Within relatively small areas, there exist high spatial variations of mortality between villages. In rural Burkina Faso, with data from 1993 to 1998, clusters of particularly high child mortality were identified in the population of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), a member of the INDEPTH Network. In this paper, we report child mortality with respect to temporal trends, spatial clustering and disparity in this HDSS from 1993 to 2012. Poisson regression was used to describe village-specific child mortality rates and time trends in mortality. The spatial scan statistic was used to identify villages or village clusters with higher child mortality. Clustering of mortality in the area is still present, but not as strong as before. The disparity of child mortality between villages has decreased. The decrease occurred in the context of an overall halving of child mortality in the rural area of Nouna HDSS between 1993 and 2012. Extrapolated to the Millennium Development Goals target period 1990-2015, this yields an estimated reduction of 54%, which is not too far off the aim of a two-thirds reduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Contribution of Cerebellar Sensorimotor Adaptation to Hippocampal Spatial Memory

PubMed Central

Passot, Jean-Baptiste; Sheynikhovich, Denis; Duvelle, Éléonore; Arleo, Angelo

2012-01-01

Complementing its primary role in motor control, cerebellar learning has also a bottom-up influence on cognitive functions, where high-level representations build up from elementary sensorimotor memories. In this paper we examine the cerebellar contribution to both procedural and declarative components of spatial cognition. To do so, we model a functional interplay between the cerebellum and the hippocampal formation during goal-oriented navigation. We reinterpret and complete existing genetic behavioural observations by means of quantitative accounts that cross-link synaptic plasticity mechanisms, single cell and population coding properties, and behavioural responses. In contrast to earlier hypotheses positing only a purely procedural impact of cerebellar adaptation deficits, our results suggest a cerebellar involvement in high-level aspects of behaviour. In particular, we propose that cerebellar learning mechanisms may influence hippocampal place fields, by contributing to the path integration process. Our simulations predict differences in place-cell discharge properties between normal mice and L7-PKCI mutant mice lacking long-term depression at cerebellar parallel fibre-Purkinje cell synapses. On the behavioural level, these results suggest that, by influencing the accuracy of hippocampal spatial codes, cerebellar deficits may impact the exploration-exploitation balance during spatial navigation. PMID:22485133

Effects of population succession on demographic and genetic processes: predictions and tests in the daylily Hemerocallis thunbergii (Liliaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Mi Yoon; Nason, John D; Chung, Myong Gi

2007-07-01

Spatial genetic structure within plant populations is influenced by variation in demographic processes through space and time, including a population's successional status. To determine how demographic structure and fine-scale genetic structure (FSGS) change with stages in a population's successional history, we studied Hemerocallis thunbergii (Liliaceae), a nocturnal flowering and hawkmoth-pollinated herbaceous perennial with rapid population turnover dynamics. We examined nine populations assigned to three successive stages of population succession: expansion, maturation, and senescence. We developed stage-specific expectations for within-population demographic and genetic structure, and then for each population quantified the spatial aggregation of individuals and genotypes using spatial autocorrelation methods (nonaccumulative O-ring and kinship statistics, respectively), and at the landscape level measured inbreeding and genetic structure using Wright's F-statistics. Analyses using the O-ring statistic revealed significant aggregation of individuals at short spatial scales in expanding and senescing populations, in particular, which may reflect restricted seed dispersal around maternal individuals combined with relatively low local population densities at these stages. Significant FSGS was found for three of four expanding, no mature, and only one senescing population, a pattern generally consistent with expectations of successional processes. Although allozyme genetic diversity was high within populations (mean %P = 78.9 and H(E) = 0.281), landscape-level differentiation among sites was also high (F(ST) = 0.166) and all populations exhibited a significant deficit of heterozygotes relative to Hardy-Weinberg expectations (range F = 0.201-0.424, mean F(IS) = 0.321). Within populations, F was not correlated with the degree of FSGS, thus suggesting inbreeding due primarily to selfing as opposed to mating among close relatives in spatially structured populations. Our results demonstrate considerable variation in the spatial distribution of individuals and patterns and magnitude of FSGS in H. thunbergii populations across the landscape. This variation is generally consistent with succession-stage-specific differences in ecological processes operating within these populations.

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. Methods We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. Results We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation system. A rich solution space is found that depends on the social partition of the population, the pattern of contacts across groups and their relative social activity, the travel attitude of each class, and the topological and traffic features of the mobility network. Reducing the activity of the less social group and reducing the cross-group mixing are predicted to be the most efficient strategies for controlling the pandemic potential in the case the less active group constitutes the majority of travellers. If instead traveling is dominated by the more social class, our model predicts the existence of an optimal across-groups mixing that maximises the pandemic potential of the disease, whereas the impact of variations in the activity of each group is less important. Conclusions The proposed modelling approach introduces a theoretical framework for the study of infectious diseases spread in a population with two layers of heterogeneity relevant for the local transmission and the spatial propagation of the disease. It can be used for pandemic preparedness studies to identify adequate interventions and quantitatively estimate the corresponding required effort, as well as in an emerging epidemic situation to assess the pandemic potential of the pathogen from population and early outbreak data. PMID:24418011

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour.

PubMed

Apolloni, Andrea; Poletto, Chiara; Ramasco, José J; Jensen, Pablo; Colizza, Vittoria

2014-01-13

Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation system. A rich solution space is found that depends on the social partition of the population, the pattern of contacts across groups and their relative social activity, the travel attitude of each class, and the topological and traffic features of the mobility network. Reducing the activity of the less social group and reducing the cross-group mixing are predicted to be the most efficient strategies for controlling the pandemic potential in the case the less active group constitutes the majority of travellers. If instead traveling is dominated by the more social class, our model predicts the existence of an optimal across-groups mixing that maximises the pandemic potential of the disease, whereas the impact of variations in the activity of each group is less important. The proposed modelling approach introduces a theoretical framework for the study of infectious diseases spread in a population with two layers of heterogeneity relevant for the local transmission and the spatial propagation of the disease. It can be used for pandemic preparedness studies to identify adequate interventions and quantitatively estimate the corresponding required effort, as well as in an emerging epidemic situation to assess the pandemic potential of the pathogen from population and early outbreak data.

Spatial capture-recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth

2013-01-01

Spatial Capture-Recapture provides a revolutionary extension of traditional capture-recapture methods for studying animal populations using data from live trapping, camera trapping, DNA sampling, acoustic sampling, and related field methods. This book is a conceptual and methodological synthesis of spatial capture-recapture modeling. As a comprehensive how-to manual, this reference contains detailed examples of a wide range of relevant spatial capture-recapture models for inference about population size and spatial and temporal variation in demographic parameters. Practicing field biologists studying animal populations will find this book to be a useful resource, as will graduate students and professionals in ecology, conservation biology, and fisheries and wildlife management.

[Spatial regimes: dynamics of intentional homicides in the city of São Paulo between 2000 and 2008].

PubMed

Nery, Marcelo Batista; Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho; Cardia, Nancy; Vicentin, Diego; Adorno, Sérgio

2012-12-01

To identify the existence of spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of intentional homicides in the municipality of São Paulo (MSP), Brazil, and to discuss the analytical value of taking such patterns into account when designing studies that address the dynamics and factors associated with the incidence of homicides. A longitudinal ecological study was conducted, having as units of analysis 13 205 census tracts and the 96 census districts that congregate these sectors in São Paulo. All intentional homicides reported in the city between 2000 and 2008 were analyzed. The gross homicide rates per 100 000 population was calculated as well as the global and local Bayesian estimates for each census tract during the study period. To verify the possibility of identifying different patterns of the spatial distribution of homicides, we used BoxMap and Moran's I index. The homicide trends in the city of São Paulo in the last decade were not homogeneous and systematic. Instead, seven patterns of spatial distribution were identified; that is, seven spatial regimes for the occurrence of intentional homicides, considering the homicide rates within each census tract as well as the rates in adjacent tracts. These spatial distribution regimes were not contained within the limits of the census tracts and districts. The results show the importance of analyzing the spatial distribution of social phenomena without restriction of political and administrative boundaries.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

Gunnison sage-grouse lek site suitability modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ouren, Douglas S.; Ignizio, Drew A.; Siders, Melissa; Childers, Theresa; Tucker, Karen; Seward, Nathan

2014-01-01

In order to better understand and protect species with minimal or decreasing populations, it is imperative to determine their actual existing population size. The focal species for this project is the Gunnison sage-grouse (GUSG), which became a proposed endangered species under the Endangered Species Act, thus confirming the need for better population estimates. Lek site counting during mating season has historically been the primary method for estimating population size since the grouse are very difficult to count at other times of the year. The objective of this project was to use historical data and available technology to identify additional potential lekking sites. This was done by determining areas throughout the study area that have the same landscape characteristics as those where known lekking activities occur. More accurate population counts could be the outcome of locating more lek sites. One of the remaining seven GUSG populations, the Crawford population (estimated at 128 individuals) exists in an area that includes the Gunnison Gorge National Conservation Area and the northern portion of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park (our study area). While the Crawford population is small, it is still considered a self-sustaining population; the persistence and growth of this population directly contribute to genetic diversity conservation of this declining species. To date, only observational and anecdotal information about the Crawford population’s range, movements, and seasonal habitat use exist. From 1978 to the present, GUSG population monitoring has been accomplished through annual lek counts conducted each spring during GUSG mating season. Although this method has provided information on GUSG population trends, it is somewhat limited because counts are based only on known lekking sites and historically minimal efforts have been made to identify additional lek sites. To meet the objective of locating more potential lekking sites, we used a suite of spatial data, geographic information system tools, and maximum entropy species distribution tools. Based on expert knowledge and landscape variables, the modeling process evolved into a hybrid approach for delineating areas that would have a significant probability for supporting GUSG lekking activities. Based on model results, a sampling protocol was developed for model verification. The results of this project provide wildlife managers with a more sophisticated methodology to evaluate GUSG habitat for potential lekking sites.

Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

2010-01-01

The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

How noise and coupling influence leading indicators of population extinction in a spatially extended ecological system.

PubMed

O'Regan, Suzanne M

2018-12-01

Anticipating critical transitions in spatially extended systems is a key topic of interest to ecologists. Gradually declining metapopulations are an important example of a spatially extended biological system that may exhibit a critical transition. Theory for spatially extended systems approaching extinction that accounts for environmental stochasticity and coupling is currently lacking. Here, we develop spatially implicit two-patch models with additive and multiplicative forms of environmental stochasticity that are slowly forced through population collapse, through changing environmental conditions. We derive patch-specific expressions for candidate indicators of extinction and test their performance via a simulation study. Coupling and spatial heterogeneities decrease the magnitude of the proposed indicators in coupled populations relative to isolated populations, and the noise regime and the degree of coupling together determine trends in summary statistics. This theory may be readily applied to other spatially extended ecological systems, such as coupled infectious disease systems on the verge of elimination.

Tsetse flies: genetics, evolution, and role as vectors.

PubMed

Krafsur, E S

2009-01-01

Tsetse flies (Diptera: Glossinidae) are an ancient taxon of one genus, Glossina, and limited species diversity. All are exclusively haematophagous and confined to sub-Saharan Africa. The Glossina are the principal vectors of African trypanosomes Trypanosoma sp. (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) and as such, are of great medical and economic importance. Clearly tsetse flies and trypanosomes are coadapted and evolutionary interactions between them are manifest. Numerous clonally reproducing strains of Trypanosoma sp. exist and their genetic diversities and spatial distributions are inadequately known. Here I review the breeding structures of the principle trypanosome vectors, G. morsitans s.l., G. pallidipes, G. palpalis s.l. and G. fuscipes fuscipes. All show highly structured populations among which there is surprisingly little detectable gene flow. Rather less is known of the breeding structure of T. brucei sensu lato vis à vis their vector tsetse flies but many genetically differentiated strains exist in nature. Genetic recombination in Trypanosoma via meiosis has recently been demonstrated in the laboratory thereby furnishing a mechanism of strain differentiation in addition to that of simple mutation. Spatially and genetically representative sampling of both trypanosome species and strains and their Glossina vectors is a major barrier to a comprehensive understanding of their mutual relationships.

Tsetse flies: Genetics, evolution, and role as vectors

PubMed Central

Krafsur, E. S.

2009-01-01

Tsetse flies (Diptera: Glossinidae) are an ancient taxon of one genus, Glossina, and limited species diversity. All are exclusively haematophagous and confined to sub-Saharan Africa. The Glossina are the principal vectors of African trypanosomes Trypanosoma sp (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) and as such, are of great medical and economic importance. Clearly tsetse flies and trypanosomes are coadapted and evolutionary interactions between them are manifest. Numerous clonally reproducing strains of Trypanosoma sp exist and their genetic diversities and spatial distributions are inadequately known. Here I review the breeding structures of the principle trypanosome vectors, G. morsitans s.l., G. pallidipes, G. palpalis s.l. and G. fuscipes fuscipes. All show highly structured populations among which there is surprisingly little detectable gene flow. Rather less is known of the breeding structure of T. brucei sensu lato vis à vis their vector tsetse flies but many genetically differentiated strains exist in nature. Genetic recombination in Trypanosoma via meiosis has recently been demonstrated in the laboratory thereby furnishing a mechanism of strain differentiation in addition to that of simple mutation. Spatially and genetically representative sampling of both trypanosome species and strains and their Glossina vectors is a major barrier to a comprehensive understanding of their mutual relationships. PMID:18992846

Effects of diffusion on total biomass in heterogeneous continuous and discrete-patch systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Ming Ni, Wei; Zhang, Bo

2016-01-01

Theoretical models of populations on a system of two connected patches previously have shown that when the two patches differ in maximum growth rate and carrying capacity, and in the limit of high diffusion, conditions exist for which the total population size at equilibrium exceeds that of the ideal free distribution, which predicts that the total population would equal the total carrying capacity of the two patches. However, this result has only been shown for the Pearl-Verhulst growth function on two patches and for a single-parameter growth function in continuous space. Here, we provide a general criterion for total population size to exceed total carrying capacity for three commonly used population growth rates for both heterogeneous continuous and multi-patch heterogeneous landscapes with high population diffusion. We show that a sufficient condition for this situation is that there is a convex positive relationship between the maximum growth rate and the parameter that, by itself or together with the maximum growth rate, determines the carrying capacity, as both vary across a spatial region. This relationship occurs in some biological populations, though not in others, so the result has ecological implications.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Populations of the Sudden Oak Death Pathogen in Oregon Forests.

PubMed

Kamvar, Z N; Larsen, M M; Kanaskie, A M; Hansen, E M; Grünwald, N J

2015-07-01

Sudden oak death caused by the oomycete Phytophthora ramorum was first discovered in California toward the end of the 20th century and subsequently emerged on tanoak forests in Oregon before its first detection in 2001 by aerial surveys. The Oregon Department of Forestry has since monitored the epidemic and sampled symptomatic tanoak trees from 2001 to the present. Populations sampled over this period were genotyped using microsatellites and studied to infer the population genetic history. To date, only the NA1 clonal lineage is established in this region, although three lineages exist on the North American west coast. The original introduction into the Joe Hall area eventually spread to several regions: mostly north but also east and southwest. A new introduction into Hunter Creek appears to correspond to a second introduction not clustering with the early introduction. Our data are best explained by both introductions originating from nursery populations in California or Oregon and resulting from two distinct introduction events. Continued vigilance and eradication of nursery populations of P. ramorum are important to avoid further emergence and potential introduction of other clonal lineages.

The Emergence of Regional Immigrant Concentrations in USA and Australia: A Spatial Relatedness Approach

PubMed Central

Novotny, Josef; Hasman, Jiri

2015-01-01

This paper examines the patterns of the US and Australian immigration geography and the process of regional population diversification and the emergence of new immigrant concentrations at the regional level. It presents a new approach in the context of human migration studies, focusing on spatial relatedness between individual foreign-born groups as revealed from the analysis of their joint spatial concentrations. The approach employs a simple assumption that the more frequently the members of two population groups concentrate in the same locations the higher is the probability that these two groups can be related. Based on detailed data on the spatial distribution of foreign-born groups in US counties (2000–2010) and Australian postal areas (2006–2011) we firstly quantify the spatial relatedness between all pairs of foreign-born groups and model the aggregate patterns of US and Australian immigration systems conceptualized as the undirected networks of foreign-born groups linked by their spatial relatedness. Secondly, adopting a more dynamic perspective, we assume that immigrant groups with higher spatial relatedness to those groups already concentrated in a region are also more likely to settle in this region in future. As the ultimate goal of the paper, we examine the power of spatial relatedness measures in projecting the emergence of new immigrant concentrations in the US and Australian regions. The results corroborate that the spatial relatedness measures can serve as useful instruments in the analysis of the patterns of population structure and prediction of regional population change. More generally, this paper demonstrates that information contained in spatial patterns (relatedness in space) of population composition has yet to be fully utilized in population forecasting. PMID:25966371

Adapting populations in space: clonal interference and genetic diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissman, Daniel; Barton, Nick

Most species inhabit ranges much larger than the scales over which individuals interact. How does this spatial structure interact with adaptive evolution? We consider a simple model of a spatially-extended, adapting population and show that, while clonal interference severely limits the adaptation of purely asexual populations, even rare recombination is enough to allow adaptation at rates approaching those of well-mixed populations. We also find that the genetic hitchhiking produced by the adaptive alleles sweeping through the population has strange effects on the patterns of genetic diversity. In large spatial ranges, even low rates of adaptation cause all individuals in the population to rapidly trace their ancestry back to individuals living in a small region in the center of the range. The probability of fixation of an allele is thus strongly dependent on the allele's spatial location, with alleles from the center favored. Surprisingly, these effects are seen genome-wide (instead of being localized to the regions of the genome undergoing the sweeps). The spatial concentration of ancestry produces a power-law dependence of relatedness on distance, so that even individuals sampled far apart are likely to be fairly closely related, masking the underlying spatial structure.

Pair and triplet approximation of a spatial lattice population model with multiscale dispersal using Markov chains for estimating spatial autocorrelation.

PubMed

Hiebeler, David E; Millett, Nicholas E

2011-06-21

We investigate a spatial lattice model of a population employing dispersal to nearest and second-nearest neighbors, as well as long-distance dispersal across the landscape. The model is studied via stochastic spatial simulations, ordinary pair approximation, and triplet approximation. The latter method, which uses the probabilities of state configurations of contiguous blocks of three sites as its state variables, is demonstrated to be greatly superior to pair approximations for estimating spatial correlation information at various scales. Correlations between pairs of sites separated by arbitrary distances are estimated by constructing spatial Markov processes using the information from both approximations. These correlations demonstrate why pair approximation misses basic qualitative features of the model, such as decreasing population density as a large proportion of offspring are dropped on second-nearest neighbors, and why triplet approximation is able to include them. Analytical and numerical results show that, excluding long-distance dispersal, the initial growth rate of an invading population is maximized and the equilibrium population density is also roughly maximized when the population spreads its offspring evenly over nearest and second-nearest neighboring sites. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPREADING SPEEDS AND TRAVELING WAVES FOR NON-COOPERATIVE INTEGRO-DIFFERENCE SYSTEMS

PubMed Central

Wang, Haiyan; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2014-01-01

The study of spatially explicit integro-difference systems when the local population dynamics are given in terms of discrete-time generations models has gained considerable attention over the past two decades. These nonlinear systems arise naturally in the study of the spatial dispersal of organisms. The brunt of the mathematical research on these systems, particularly, when dealing with cooperative systems, has focused on the study of the existence of traveling wave solutions and the characterization of their spreading speed. Here, we characterize the minimum propagation (spreading) speed, via the convergence of initial data to wave solutions, for a large class of non cooperative nonlinear systems of integro-difference equations. The spreading speed turns out to be the slowest speed from a family of non-constant traveling wave solutions. The applicability of these theoretical results is illustrated through the explicit study of an integro-difference system with local population dynamics governed by Hassell and Comins’ non-cooperative competition model (1976). The corresponding integro-difference nonlinear systems that results from the redistribution of individuals via a dispersal kernel is shown to satisfy conditions that guarantee the existence of minimum speeds and traveling waves. This paper is dedicated to Avner Friedman as we celebrate his immense contributions to the fields of partial differential equations, integral equations, mathematical biology, industrial mathematics and applied mathematics in general. His leadership in the mathematical sciences and his mentorship of students and friends over several decades has made a huge difference in the personal and professional lives of many, including both of us. PMID:24899868

Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

PubMed

Topping, Chris J; Craig, Peter S; de Jong, Frank; Klein, Michael; Laskowski, Ryszard; Manachini, Barbara; Pieper, Silvia; Smith, Rob; Sousa, José Paulo; Streissl, Franz; Swarowsky, Klaus; Tiktak, Aaldrik; van der Linden, Ton

2015-12-15

Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spatial context to the ERA as well as suggest a way in which the results of complex models, necessary for proper inclusion of spatial aspects in the ERA, can be presented and evaluated easily using abundance and occupancy ratios (AOR). We used an agent-based simulation system and an existing model for a widespread carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros), to evaluate the impact of a fictitious highly-toxic pesticide on population density and the distribution of beetles in time and space. Landscape structure and field margin management were evaluated by comparing scenario-based ERAs for the beetle. Source-sink dynamics led to an off-crop impact even when no pesticide was present off-crop. In addition, the impacts increased with multi-year application of the pesticide whereas current ERA considers only maximally one year. These results further indicated a complex interaction between landscape structure and pesticide effect in time, both in-crop and off-crop, indicating the need for NTA ERA to be conducted at landscape- and multi-season temporal-scales. Use of AOR indices to compare ERA outputs facilitated easy comparison of scenarios, allowing simultaneous evaluation of impacts and planning of mitigation measures. The landscape and population ERA approach also demonstrates that there is a potential to change from regulation of a pesticide in isolation, towards the consideration of pesticide management at landscape scales and provision of biodiversity benefits via inclusion and testing of mitigation measures in authorisation procedures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Differential effects on socioeconomic groups of modelling the location of mammography screening clinics using Geographic Information Systems.

PubMed

Hyndman, J C; Holman, C D

2000-06-01

To evaluate spatial access to mammography clinics and to investigate whether relocating clinics can improve global access. To determine whether any change in access is distributed equitably between different social groups. The study was undertaken in Perth, Western Australia in 1996. It was an analysis of travel distances to mammography clinics, comparing distances to the pattern of existing clinics and modelled relocated clinics. The study population was the 151,162 women aged 40-64 years resident in Perth in 1991. Overall travel distances to the existing clinics was reduced by 14% when a GIS system was used to relocate them so as to minimise the travel distance for all women. The travel distance of the most disadvantaged groups fell by 2% and by 24% for the least disadvantaged group. GIS modelling can be used to advantage to evaluate potential locations for screening clinics that improve the access for the target population, however global analysis should be supplemented by analysis of special groups to ensure that no group is disadvantaged by the proposal. If new technology is not used to evaluate the placement of health services, population travel distances may be greater than necessary, with possible impacts on attendance rates.

The spatial profiles and metabolic capabilities of microbial populations impact the growth of antibiotic-resistant mutants

PubMed Central

Kaushik, Karishma S.; Ratnayeke, Nalin; Katira, Parag; Gordon, Vernita D.

2015-01-01

Antibiotic resistance adversely affects clinical and public health on a global scale. Using the opportunistic human pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa, we show that increasing the number density of bacteria, on agar containing aminoglycoside antibiotics, can non-monotonically impact the survival of antibiotic-resistant mutants. Notably, at high cell densities, mutant survival is inhibited. A wide range of bacterial species can inhibit antibiotic-resistant mutants. Inhibition results from the metabolic breakdown of amino acids, which results in alkaline by-products. The consequent increase in pH acts in conjunction with aminoglycosides to mediate inhibition. Our work raises the possibility that the manipulation of microbial population structure and nutrient environment in conjunction with existing antibiotics could provide therapeutic approaches to combat antibiotic resistance. PMID:25972434

Fine-scale natal homing and localized movement as shaped by sex and spawning habitat in chinook salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, Helen; Isaak, Daniel; Dunham, J.B.; Thurow, Russel; Rieman, B.

2006-01-01

Natal homing is a hallmark of the life history of salmonid fishes, but the spatial scale of homing within local, naturally reproducing salmon populations is still poorly understood. Accurate homing (paired with restricted movement) should lead to the existence of fine-scale genetic structuring due to the spatial clustering of related individuals on spawning grounds. Thus, we explored the spatial resolution of natal homing using genetic associations among individual Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an interconnected stream network. We also investigated the relationship between genetic patterns and two factors hypothesized to influence natal homing and localized movements at finer scales in this species, localized patterns in the distribution of spawning gravels and sex. Spatial autocorrelation analyses showed that spawning locations in both sub-basins of our study site were spatially clumped, but the upper sub-basin generally had a larger spatial extent and continuity of redd locations than the lower sub-basin, where the distribution of redds and associated habitat conditions were more patchy. Male genotypes were not autocorrelated at any spatial scale in either sub-basin. Female genotypes showed significant spatial autocorrelation and genetic patterns for females varied in the direction predicted between the two sub-basins, with much stronger autocorrelation in the sub-basin with less continuity in spawning gravels. The patterns observed here support predictions about differential constraints and breeding tactics between the two sexes and the potential for fine-scale habitat structure to influence the precision of natal homing and localized movements of individual Chinook salmon on their breeding grounds.

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Whited, Diane C.; Schmetterling, David A.; Dux, Andrew M; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2017-01-01

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors.We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate).Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor).Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact.Synthesis and applications. Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation of freshwater biodiversity in a warming world.

Altitudinal gradients, biogeographic history and microhabitat adaptation affect fine-scale spatial genetic structure in African and Neotropical populations of an ancient tropical tree species.

PubMed

Torroba-Balmori, Paloma; Budde, Katharina B; Heer, Katrin; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Olsson, Sanna; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Casalis, Maxime; Sonké, Bonaventure; Dick, Christopher W; Heuertz, Myriam

2017-01-01

The analysis of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) within populations can provide insights into eco-evolutionary processes. Restricted dispersal and locally occurring genetic drift are the primary causes for FSGS at equilibrium, as described in the isolation by distance (IBD) model. Beyond IBD expectations, spatial, environmental or historical factors can affect FSGS. We examined FSGS in seven African and Neotropical populations of the late-successional rain forest tree Symphonia globulifera L. f. (Clusiaceae) to discriminate the influence of drift-dispersal vs. landscape/ecological features and historical processes on FSGS. We used spatial principal component analysis and Bayesian clustering to assess spatial genetic heterogeneity at SSRs and examined its association with plastid DNA and habitat features. African populations (from Cameroon and São Tomé) displayed a stronger FSGS than Neotropical populations at both marker types (mean Sp = 0.025 vs. Sp = 0.008 at SSRs) and had a stronger spatial genetic heterogeneity. All three African populations occurred in pronounced altitudinal gradients, possibly restricting animal-mediated seed dispersal. Cyto-nuclear disequilibria in Cameroonian populations also suggested a legacy of biogeographic history to explain these genetic patterns. Conversely, Neotropical populations exhibited a weaker FSGS, which may reflect more efficient wide-ranging seed dispersal by Neotropical bats and other dispersers. The population from French Guiana displayed an association of plastid haplotypes with two morphotypes characterized by differential habitat preferences. Our results highlight the importance of the microenvironment for eco-evolutionary processes within persistent tropical tree populations.

Altitudinal gradients, biogeographic history and microhabitat adaptation affect fine-scale spatial genetic structure in African and Neotropical populations of an ancient tropical tree species

PubMed Central

Torroba-Balmori, Paloma; Budde, Katharina B.; Heer, Katrin; González-Martínez, Santiago C.; Olsson, Sanna; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Sonké, Bonaventure; Dick, Christopher W.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) within populations can provide insights into eco-evolutionary processes. Restricted dispersal and locally occurring genetic drift are the primary causes for FSGS at equilibrium, as described in the isolation by distance (IBD) model. Beyond IBD expectations, spatial, environmental or historical factors can affect FSGS. We examined FSGS in seven African and Neotropical populations of the late-successional rain forest tree Symphonia globulifera L. f. (Clusiaceae) to discriminate the influence of drift-dispersal vs. landscape/ecological features and historical processes on FSGS. We used spatial principal component analysis and Bayesian clustering to assess spatial genetic heterogeneity at SSRs and examined its association with plastid DNA and habitat features. African populations (from Cameroon and São Tomé) displayed a stronger FSGS than Neotropical populations at both marker types (mean Sp = 0.025 vs. Sp = 0.008 at SSRs) and had a stronger spatial genetic heterogeneity. All three African populations occurred in pronounced altitudinal gradients, possibly restricting animal-mediated seed dispersal. Cyto-nuclear disequilibria in Cameroonian populations also suggested a legacy of biogeographic history to explain these genetic patterns. Conversely, Neotropical populations exhibited a weaker FSGS, which may reflect more efficient wide-ranging seed dispersal by Neotropical bats and other dispersers. The population from French Guiana displayed an association of plastid haplotypes with two morphotypes characterized by differential habitat preferences. Our results highlight the importance of the microenvironment for eco-evolutionary processes within persistent tropical tree populations. PMID:28771629

Movements of Blue Sharks (Prionace glauca) across Their Life History

PubMed Central

Vandeperre, Frederic; Aires-da-Silva, Alexandre; Fontes, Jorge; Santos, Marco; Serrão Santos, Ricardo; Afonso, Pedro

2014-01-01

Spatial structuring and segregation by sex and size is considered to be an intrinsic attribute of shark populations. These spatial patterns remain poorly understood, particularly for oceanic species such as blue shark (Prionace glauca), despite its importance for the management and conservation of this highly migratory species. This study presents the results of a long-term electronic tagging experiment to investigate the migratory patterns of blue shark, to elucidate how these patterns change across its life history and to assess the existence of a nursery area in the central North Atlantic. Blue sharks belonging to different life stages (n = 34) were tracked for periods up to 952 days during which they moved extensively (up to an estimated 28.139 km), occupying large parts of the oceanic basin. Notwithstanding a large individual variability, there were pronounced differences in movements and space use across the species' life history. The study provides strong evidence for the existence of a discrete central North Atlantic nursery, where juveniles can reside for up to at least 2 years. In contrast with previously described nurseries of coastal and semi-pelagic sharks, this oceanic nursery is comparatively vast and open suggesting that shelter from predators is not its main function. Subsequently, male and female blue sharks spatially segregate. Females engage in seasonal latitudinal migrations until approaching maturity, when they undergo an ontogenic habitat shift towards tropical latitudes. In contrast, juvenile males generally expanded their range southward and apparently displayed a higher degree of behavioural polymorphism. These results provide important insights into the spatial ecology of pelagic sharks, with implications for the sustainable management of this heavily exploited shark, especially in the central North Atlantic where the presence of a nursery and the seasonal overlap and alternation of different life stages coincides with a high fishing mortality. PMID:25119716

Movements of blue sharks (Prionace glauca) across their life history.

PubMed

Vandeperre, Frederic; Aires-da-Silva, Alexandre; Fontes, Jorge; Santos, Marco; Serrão Santos, Ricardo; Afonso, Pedro

2014-01-01

Spatial structuring and segregation by sex and size is considered to be an intrinsic attribute of shark populations. These spatial patterns remain poorly understood, particularly for oceanic species such as blue shark (Prionace glauca), despite its importance for the management and conservation of this highly migratory species. This study presents the results of a long-term electronic tagging experiment to investigate the migratory patterns of blue shark, to elucidate how these patterns change across its life history and to assess the existence of a nursery area in the central North Atlantic. Blue sharks belonging to different life stages (n = 34) were tracked for periods up to 952 days during which they moved extensively (up to an estimated 28.139 km), occupying large parts of the oceanic basin. Notwithstanding a large individual variability, there were pronounced differences in movements and space use across the species' life history. The study provides strong evidence for the existence of a discrete central North Atlantic nursery, where juveniles can reside for up to at least 2 years. In contrast with previously described nurseries of coastal and semi-pelagic sharks, this oceanic nursery is comparatively vast and open suggesting that shelter from predators is not its main function. Subsequently, male and female blue sharks spatially segregate. Females engage in seasonal latitudinal migrations until approaching maturity, when they undergo an ontogenic habitat shift towards tropical latitudes. In contrast, juvenile males generally expanded their range southward and apparently displayed a higher degree of behavioural polymorphism. These results provide important insights into the spatial ecology of pelagic sharks, with implications for the sustainable management of this heavily exploited shark, especially in the central North Atlantic where the presence of a nursery and the seasonal overlap and alternation of different life stages coincides with a high fishing mortality.

Recovery Migration after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System

PubMed Central

Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack

2015-01-01

Changes in the human migration systems of Hurricane Katrina- and Rita-affected Gulf of Mexico coastline counties provide an example of how climate change may affect coastal populations. Crude climate change models predict a mass migration of “climate refugees,” but an emerging literature on environmental migration suggests most migration will be short-distance and short-duration within existing migration systems, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-struck places. In this research, we derive a series of hypotheses on recovery migration predicting how the migration system of hurricane-affected coastline counties in the Gulf of Mexico was likely to have changed between the pre-disaster and the recovery periods. We test these hypotheses using data from the Internal Revenue Service on annual county-level migration flows, comparing the recovery period migration system (2007–2009) to the pre-disaster period (1999–2004). By observing county-to-county ties and flows we find that recovery migration was strong, as the migration system of the disaster-affected coastline counties became more spatially concentrated while flows within it intensified and became more urbanized. Our analysis demonstrates how migration systems are likely to be affected by the more intense and frequent storms anticipated by climate change scenarios with implications for the population recovery of disaster-affected places. PMID:26084982

Evidence from thymidine-3H-labeled meristems of Vicia faba of two cell populations.

PubMed

Webster, P L; Davidson, D

1968-11-01

Treatments with tritiated thymidine (TdR-(3)H) have revealed the existence of two populations of mitotically active cells in meristems of lateral roots of Vicia faba. A rapidly dividing population, with a cycle time of 14 hr, constitutes about half the cells in the meristem. A second population of cells, with a cycle time in excess of 30 hr, is also present. Estimates of the relative size of this slowly dividing population are more difficult to make, but we calculate that this population includes 27-43% of meristem cells. The remaining fraction of the meristem is made up of cells that divide rarely or not at all. Since, at all times, both populations contribute to the mitotic index, the curve of the percentage of labeled mitoses that can be determined after a pulse label with TdR-(3)H differs from the curve expected of an ideal population in an important way: the peak value of the curve of the percentage of labeled mitoses is always less than 100%, usually between 75 and 80%. This heterogeneity within a meristem must be borne in mind in terms of the response of meristems to disruptive treatments, the mechanisms controlling mitotic cycle duration, and the spatial organization of a heterogeneous population in an organ that shows polarized growth.

A Theoretical Note on Sex Linkage and Race Differences in Spatial Visualization Ability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, Arthur R.

1975-01-01

Evidence on the poorer spatial visualization ability in various Negro populations compared to the White populations and on the direction and magnitude of sex differences in spatial ability relative to other abilities suggests the genetic hypothesis that spatial ability is enhanced by a sex-linked recessive gene and that, since the 20-30 percent…

Spatial ecology of the aquatic garter snake, Thamnophis atratus, in a free-flowing stream environment

Treesearch

H. H. Welsh; C. A. Wheeler; A. J. Lind

2010-01-01

Spatial patterns of animals have important implications for population dynamics and can reveal other key aspects of a species' ecology. Movements and the resulting spatial arrangements have fitness and genetic consequences for both individuals and populations. We studied the spatial and dispersal patterns of the Oregon Gartersnake, Thamnophis atratus...

Estimation of the spatial autocorrelation function: consequences of sampling dynamic populations in space and time

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin

2004-01-01

The estimation of spatial autocorrelation in spatially- and temporally-referenced data is fundamental to understanding an organism's population biology. I used four sets of census field data, and developed an idealized space-time dynamic system, to study the behavior of spatial autocorrelation estimates when a practical method of sampling is employed. Estimates...

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, M.; Negri, Andrew

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. M.; Manyin, M.; Negri, A.

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025,60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause- effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

How Cities Make Their Own Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in d e near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. We will also present results from experiments using a regional atmospheric-land surface modeling system. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Spatial structures in a simple model of population dynamics for parasite-host interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, J. J.; Skinner, B.; Breecher, N.; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

2015-08-01

Spatial patterning can be crucially important for understanding the behavior of interacting populations. Here we investigate a simple model of parasite and host populations in which parasites are random walkers that must come into contact with a host in order to reproduce. We focus on the spatial arrangement of parasites around a single host, and we derive using analytics and numerical simulations the necessary conditions placed on the parasite fecundity and lifetime for the population's long-term survival. We also show that the parasite population can be pushed to extinction by a large drift velocity, but, counterintuitively, a small drift velocity generally increases the parasite population.

Detecting cancer clusters in a regional population with local cluster tests and Bayesian smoothing methods: a simulation study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There is a rising public and political demand for prospective cancer cluster monitoring. But there is little empirical evidence on the performance of established cluster detection tests under conditions of small and heterogeneous sample sizes and varying spatial scales, such as are the case for most existing population-based cancer registries. Therefore this simulation study aims to evaluate different cluster detection methods, implemented in the open soure environment R, in their ability to identify clusters of lung cancer using real-life data from an epidemiological cancer registry in Germany. Methods Risk surfaces were constructed with two different spatial cluster types, representing a relative risk of RR = 2.0 or of RR = 4.0, in relation to the overall background incidence of lung cancer, separately for men and women. Lung cancer cases were sampled from this risk surface as geocodes using an inhomogeneous Poisson process. The realisations of the cancer cases were analysed within small spatial (census tracts, N = 1983) and within aggregated large spatial scales (communities, N = 78). Subsequently, they were submitted to the cluster detection methods. The test accuracy for cluster location was determined in terms of detection rates (DR), false-positive (FP) rates and positive predictive values. The Bayesian smoothing models were evaluated using ROC curves. Results With moderate risk increase (RR = 2.0), local cluster tests showed better DR (for both spatial aggregation scales > 0.90) and lower FP rates (both < 0.05) than the Bayesian smoothing methods. When the cluster RR was raised four-fold, the local cluster tests showed better DR with lower FPs only for the small spatial scale. At a large spatial scale, the Bayesian smoothing methods, especially those implementing a spatial neighbourhood, showed a substantially lower FP rate than the cluster tests. However, the risk increases at this scale were mostly diluted by data aggregation. Conclusion High resolution spatial scales seem more appropriate as data base for cancer cluster testing and monitoring than the commonly used aggregated scales. We suggest the development of a two-stage approach that combines methods with high detection rates as a first-line screening with methods of higher predictive ability at the second stage. PMID:24314148

Transit Oriented Development (TOD) index at the current transit nodes in Depok City, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistyaningrum, Subekti; Sumabrata, Jachrizal

2018-03-01

Depok is a rural area which developed by Perum Perumnas in 1976. And growth rapidly since University of Indonesia moved in 1986. Afterward, Depok became a new city at periphery of DKI Jakarta with numerous development and urbanizations. Depok city is facing urban problems including population growth of 9% per year, the increasing regular and irregular settlements and transportation problems such as traffic congestion, the increasing of individual cars and motorcycles and lack of transportation development. Moreover, Jabodetabek Commuterline which is start from Bogor station and transits in 5 (five) stations in Depok city (Universitas Indonesia, Pondok Cina, Depok Baru, Depok and Citayam), become a potential alternative for commuters in Depok to go out of the city. Depok should have sustainable transportation such as Transit Oriented Development (TOD) masterplan in a strategic place of railways area to conduct a sustainable city. This study discovered that TOD planning should be proceded by understanding the existing condition through measurement of TOD level. Therefore, the measurement of TOD level around the existing nodes is inevitable as transit node plays a central role in TOD, so it was defined as 800 meters walking distances. This paper focus on 3 (three) station areas along the way of Jalan Margonda, which has a very significant growth development area in Depok with the indicators are devided into spatial and non-spatial indicators. Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS) isused to quantify all of the spatial indicators.

Leveraging Geographic Information Systems in an Integrated Health Care Delivery Organization

PubMed Central

Clift, Kathryn; Scott, Luther; Johnson, Michael; Gonzalez, Carlos

2014-01-01

A handful of the many changes resulting from the Affordable Care Act underscore the need for a geographic understanding of existing and prospective member communities. Health exchanges require that health provider networks are geographically accessible to underserved populations, and nonprofit hospitals nationwide are required to conduct community health needs assessments every three years. Beyond these requirements, health care providers are using maps and spatial analysis to better address health outcomes that are related in complex ways to social and economic factors. Kaiser Permanente is applying geographic information systems, with spatial analytics and map-based visualizations, to data sourced from its electronic medical records and from publicly and commercially available datasets. The results are helping to shape an understanding of the health needs of Kaiser Permanente members in the context of their communities. This understanding is part of a strategy to inform partnerships and interventions in and beyond traditional care delivery settings. PMID:24694317

Surveillance of the colorectal cancer disparities among demographic subgroups: a spatial analysis.

PubMed

Hsu, Chiehwen Ed; Mas, Francisco Soto; Hickey, Jessica M; Miller, Jerry A; Lai, Dejian

2006-09-01

The literature suggests that colorectal cancer mortality in Texas is distributed inhomogeneously among specific demographic subgroups and in certain geographic regions over an extended period. To understand the extent of the demographic and geographic disparities, the present study examined colorectal cancer mortality in 15 demographic groups in Texas counties between 1990 and 2001. The Spatial Scan Statistic was used to assess the standardized mortality ratio, duration and age-adjusted rates of excess mortality, and their respective p-values for testing the null hypothesis of homogeneity of geographic and temporal distribution. The study confirmed the excess mortality in some Texas counties found in the literature, identified 13 additional excess mortality regions, and found 4 health regions with persistent excess mortality involving several population subgroups. Health disparities of colorectal cancer mortality continue to exist in Texas demographic subpopulations. Health education and intervention programs should be directed to the at-risk subpopulations in the identified regions.

Spatial solitons in a semiconductor microresonator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taranenko, V. B.; Ganne, I.; Kuszelewicz, R.; Weiss, C. O.

We show experimentally the existence of bright and dark spatial solitons in a passive quantum-well-semi-conductor resonator of large Fresnel number with mixed absorptive defocusing nonlinearity. Several of the solitons can exist simultaneously as required for applications.

Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of the population across larger US regions, strongly affects outcomes while smaller-scale spatial patterns of population change have smaller effects. [1] Collins, M. et al. (2013) Contribution of WG I to the 5th AR of the IPCC[2] Romero-Lankao, P. et al (2014) Contribution of WG II to the 5th AR of the IPCC[3] Walsh, J. et al. (2014) The 3rd National Climate Assessment

[Population and distribution of the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) wintering in the Poyang lakes over the past decade].

PubMed

Shan, Ji-Hong; Ma, Jian-Zhang; Li, Yan-Kuo; Qian, Fa-Wen; Tu, Xiao-Bin

2012-08-01

Using simultaneous land surveys, we monitored the population size and spatial distribution of wintering Siberian cranes at 64 lakes around Poyang Lake between 1998 and 2010. The results showed that 46 lakes were inhabited by wintering cranes, and in 25 of those, the number of wintering cranes accounted for more than 1% of the Siberian cranes' global population. The lakes where over 40.0% of the global population, e.g. 1 280 individuals, included Dachahu Lake in Jiujiang region, and Banghu Lake and Candouhu Lake in the Poyang Lake Nature Reserve. The average yearly population of the wintering Siberian crane in the Poyang lakes was 3 108±849, with the maximum of 4 004 individuals in winter 2002. On the whole, there was no drastic fluctuation, but population numbers have shown considerable fluctuation since 2003. We also found the Poyang Lake Nature Reserve was the major wintering area of the Siberian crane, with over 60% of Siberian cranes wintering in the reserve since 2002 (except in 2006). Most of the inhabited lakes are covered in existing nature reserves, though some lakes outside the reserve were also considerably used by Siberian cranes.

Small-scale distribution characteristics of Munida spp. populations (Decapoda: Anomura) off the Catalan coasts (western Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huguet, Carme; Maynou, Francesc; Abelló, Pere

2005-04-01

The small-scale distribution characteristics of three species of the anomuran genus Munida, namely Munida rutllanti, Munida intermedia and Munida tenuimana, have been studied on the lower shelf and upper-middle continental slope near the coasts of Tarragona and the Ebro delta region in the western Mediterranean. The differential bathymetric distribution showed that a fair degree of overlap exists between M. rutllanti and M. intermedia, with the former being mainly found at shallower depths. The size population structure of the three species showed that polymodality, as indicative of a longer life-span and of a higher degree of population structuring was more evident in the deeper-living species, whereas unimodality, as an indication of a recruitment dependent population, was more evident in the shallowest-occurring species. Geostatistics have been applied to determine the degree of spatial variability occurring in M. intermedia abundance, the better-sampled species. The Mantel test has been used to assess the significance of the overlap between the three species distributions as well as the relation between certain population parameters. A discussion on the population characteristics of M. rutllanti is made in relation with its expansion along the western Mediterranean in the last decades.

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Different strategies for spatial updating in yaw and pitch path integration

PubMed Central

Goeke, Caspar M.; König, Peter; Gramann, Klaus

2013-01-01

Research in spatial navigation revealed the existence of discrete strategies defined by the use of distinct reference frames during virtual path integration. The present study investigated the distribution of these navigation strategies as a function of gender, video gaming experience, and self-estimates of spatial navigation abilities in a population of 300 subjects. Participants watched videos of virtual passages through a star-field with one turn in either the horizontal (yaw) or the vertical (pitch) axis. At the end of a passage they selected one out of four homing arrows to indicate the initial starting location. To solve the task, participants could employ two discrete strategies, navigating within either an egocentric or an allocentric reference frame. The majority of valid subjects (232/260) consistently used the same strategy in more than 75% of all trials. With that approach 33.1% of all participants were classified as Turners (using an egocentric reference frame on both axes) and 46.5% as Non-turners (using an allocentric reference frame on both axes). 9.2% of all participants consistently used an egocentric reference frame in the yaw plane but an allocentric reference frame in the pitch plane (Switcher). Investigating the influence of gender on navigation strategies revealed that females predominantly used the Non-turner strategy while males used both the Turner and the Non-turner strategy with comparable probabilities. Other than expected, video gaming experience did not influence strategy use. Based on a strong quantitative basis with the sample size about an order of magnitude larger than in typical psychophysical studies these results demonstrate that most people reliably use one out of three possible navigation strategies (Turners, Non-turners, Switchers) for spatial updating and provides a sound estimate of how those strategies are distributed within the general population. PMID:23412683

Elucidating spatially explicit behavioral landscapes in the Willow Flycatcher

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakian, Amanda V.; Sullivan, Kimberly A.; Paxton, Eben H.

2012-01-01

Animal resource selection is a complex, hierarchical decision-making process, yet resource selection studies often focus on the presence and absence of an animal rather than the animal's behavior at resource use locations. In this study, we investigate foraging and vocalization resource selection in a population of Willow Flycatchers, Empidonax traillii adastus, using Bayesian spatial generalized linear models. These models produce “behavioral landscapes” in which space use and resource selection is linked through behavior. Radio telemetry locations were collected from 35 adult Willow Flycatchers (n = 14 males, n = 13 females, and n = 8 unknown sex) over the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons at Fish Creek, Utah. Results from the 2-stage modeling approach showed that habitat type, perch position, and distance from the arithmetic mean of the home range (in males) or nest site (in females) were important factors influencing foraging and vocalization resource selection. Parameter estimates from the individual-level models indicated high intraspecific variation in the use of the various habitat types and perch heights for foraging and vocalization. On the population level, Willow Flycatchers selected riparian habitat over other habitat types for vocalizing but used multiple habitat types for foraging including mountain shrub, young riparian, and upland forest. Mapping of observed and predicted foraging and vocalization resource selection indicated that the behavior often occurred in disparate areas of the home range. This suggests that multiple core areas may exist in the home ranges of individual flycatchers, and demonstrates that the behavioral landscape modeling approach can be applied to identify spatially and behaviorally distinct core areas. The behavioral landscape approach is applicable to a wide range of animal taxa and can be used to improve our understanding of the spatial context of behavior and resource selection.

The integration of climate change, spatial dynamics, and habitat fragmentation: A conceptual overview.

PubMed

Holyoak, Marcel; Heath, Sacha K

2016-01-01

A growing number of studies have looked at how climate change alters the effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on both single and multiple species; some raise concern that biodiversity loss and its effects will be exacerbated. The published literature on spatial dynamics (such as dispersal and metapopulation dynamics), habitat fragmentation and climate change requires synthesis and a conceptual framework to simplify thinking. We propose a framework that integrates how climate change affects spatial population dynamics and the effects of habitat fragmentation in terms of: (i) habitat quality, quantity and distribution; (ii) habitat connectivity; and (iii) the dynamics of habitat itself. We use the framework to categorize existing autecological studies and investigate how each is affected by anthropogenic climate change. It is clear that a changing climate produces changes in the geographic distribution of climatic conditions, and the amount and quality of habitat. The most thorough published studies show how such changes impact metapopulation persistence, source-sink dynamics, changes in species' geographic range and community composition. Climate-related changes in movement behavior and quantity, quality and distribution of habitat have also produced empirical changes in habitat connectivity for some species. An underexplored area is how habitat dynamics that are driven by climatic processes will affect species that live in dynamic habitats. We end our discussion by suggesting ways to improve current attempts to integrate climate change, spatial population dynamics and habitat fragmentation effects, and suggest distinct areas of study that might provide opportunities for more fully integrative work. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Nguyen, Vuong; Dickman, Chris R

2016-10-01

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

Evolution at ‘Sutures’ and ‘Centers’: Recombination Can Aid Adaptation of Spatially Structured Populations on Rugged Fitness Landscapes

PubMed Central

Cooper, Jacob D.; Kerr, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Epistatic interactions among genes can give rise to rugged fitness landscapes, in which multiple “peaks” of high-fitness allele combinations are separated by “valleys” of low-fitness genotypes. How populations traverse rugged fitness landscapes is a long-standing question in evolutionary biology. Sexual reproduction may affect how a population moves within a rugged fitness landscape. Sex may generate new high-fitness genotypes by recombination, but it may also destroy high-fitness genotypes by shuffling the genes of a fit parent with a genetically distinct mate, creating low-fitness offspring. Either of these opposing aspects of sex require genotypic diversity in the population. Spatially structured populations may harbor more diversity than well-mixed populations, potentially amplifying both positive and negative effects of sex. On the other hand, spatial structure leads to clumping in which mating is more likely to occur between like types, diminishing the effects of recombination. In this study, we use computer simulations to investigate the combined effects of recombination and spatial structure on adaptation in rugged fitness landscapes. We find that spatially restricted mating and offspring dispersal may allow multiple genotypes inhabiting suboptimal peaks to coexist, and recombination at the “sutures” between the clusters of these genotypes can create genetically novel offspring. Sometimes such an offspring genotype inhabits a new peak on the fitness landscape. In such a case, spatially restricted mating allows this fledgling subpopulation to avoid recombination with distinct genotypes, as mates are more likely to be the same genotype. Such population “centers” can allow nascent peaks to establish despite recombination. Spatial structure may therefore allow an evolving population to enjoy the creative side of sexual recombination while avoiding its destructive side. PMID:27973606

An overview of the utility of population simulation software in molecular ecology.

PubMed

Hoban, Sean

2014-05-01

Stochastic simulation software that simultaneously model genetic, population and environmental processes can inform many topics in molecular ecology. These include forecasting species and community response to environmental change, inferring dispersal ecology, revealing cryptic mating, quantifying past population dynamics, assessing in situ management options and monitoring neutral and adaptive biodiversity change. Advances in population demographic-genetic simulation software, especially with respect to individual life history, landscapes and genetic processes, are transforming and expanding the ways that molecular data can be used. The aim of this review is to explain the roles that such software can play in molecular ecology studies (whether as a principal component or a supporting function) so that researchers can decide whether, when and precisely how simulations can be incorporated into their work. First, I use seven case studies to demonstrate how simulations are employed, their specific advantage/necessity and what alternative or complementary (nonsimulation) approaches are available. I also explain how simulations can be integrated with existing spatial, environmental, historical and genetic data sets. I next describe simulation features that may be of interest to molecular ecologists, such as spatial and behavioural considerations and species' interactions, to provide guidance on how particular simulation capabilities can serve particular needs. Lastly, I discuss the prospect of simulation software in emerging challenges (climate change, biodiversity monitoring, population exploitation) and opportunities (genomics, ancient DNA), in order to emphasize that the scope of simulation-based work is expanding. I also suggest practical considerations, priorities and elements of best practice. This should accelerate the uptake of simulation approaches and firmly embed them as a versatile tool in the molecular ecologist's toolbox. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global classical solvability and stabilization in a two-dimensional chemotaxis-Navier-Stokes system modeling coral fertilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, Elio; Winkler, Michael

2018-04-01

The interplay of chemotaxis, convection and reaction terms is studied in the particular framework of a refined model for coral broadcast spawning, consisting of three equations describing the population densities of unfertilized sperms and eggs and the concentration of a chemical released by the latter, coupled to the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Under mild assumptions on the initial data, global existence of classical solutions to an associated initial-boundary value problem in bounded planar domains is established. Moreover, all these solutions are shown to approach a spatially homogeneous equilibrium in the large time limit.

a Multidisciplinary Analytical Framework for Studying Active Mobility Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orellana, D.; Hermida, C.; Osorio, P.

2016-06-01

Intermediate cities are urged to change and adapt their mobility systems from a high energy-demanding motorized model to a sustainable low-motorized model. In order to accomplish such a model, city administrations need to better understand active mobility patterns and their links to socio-demographic and cultural aspects of the population. During the last decade, researchers have demonstrated the potential of geo-location technologies and mobile devices to gather massive amounts of data for mobility studies. However, the analysis and interpretation of this data has been carried out by specialized research groups with relatively narrow approaches from different disciplines. Consequently, broader questions remain less explored, mainly those relating to spatial behaviour of individuals and populations with their geographic environment and the motivations and perceptions shaping such behaviour. Understanding sustainable mobility and exploring new research paths require an interdisciplinary approach given the complex nature of mobility systems and their social, economic and environmental impacts. Here, we introduce the elements for a multidisciplinary analytical framework for studying active mobility patterns comprised of three components: a) Methodological, b) Behavioural, and c) Perceptual. We demonstrate the applicability of the framework by analysing mobility patterns of cyclists and pedestrians in an intermediate city integrating a range of techniques, including: GPS tracking, spatial analysis, auto-ethnography, and perceptual mapping. The results demonstrated the existence of non-evident spatial behaviours and how perceptual features affect mobility. This knowledge is useful for developing policies and practices for sustainable mobility planning.

Gbm.auto: A software tool to simplify spatial modelling and Marine Protected Area planning

PubMed Central

Officer, Rick; Clarke, Maurice; Reid, David G.; Brophy, Deirdre

2017-01-01

Boosted Regression Trees. Excellent for data-poor spatial management but hard to use Marine resource managers and scientists often advocate spatial approaches to manage data-poor species. Existing spatial prediction and management techniques are either insufficiently robust, struggle with sparse input data, or make suboptimal use of multiple explanatory variables. Boosted Regression Trees feature excellent performance and are well suited to modelling the distribution of data-limited species, but are extremely complicated and time-consuming to learn and use, hindering access for a wide potential user base and therefore limiting uptake and usage. BRTs automated and simplified for accessible general use with rich feature set We have built a software suite in R which integrates pre-existing functions with new tailor-made functions to automate the processing and predictive mapping of species abundance data: by automating and greatly simplifying Boosted Regression Tree spatial modelling, the gbm.auto R package suite makes this powerful statistical modelling technique more accessible to potential users in the ecological and modelling communities. The package and its documentation allow the user to generate maps of predicted abundance, visualise the representativeness of those abundance maps and to plot the relative influence of explanatory variables and their relationship to the response variables. Databases of the processed model objects and a report explaining all the steps taken within the model are also generated. The package includes a previously unavailable Decision Support Tool which combines estimated escapement biomass (the percentage of an exploited population which must be retained each year to conserve it) with the predicted abundance maps to generate maps showing the location and size of habitat that should be protected to conserve the target stocks (candidate MPAs), based on stakeholder priorities, such as the minimisation of fishing effort displacement. Gbm.auto for management in various settings By bridging the gap between advanced statistical methods for species distribution modelling and conservation science, management and policy, these tools can allow improved spatial abundance predictions, and therefore better management, decision-making, and conservation. Although this package was built to support spatial management of a data-limited marine elasmobranch fishery, it should be equally applicable to spatial abundance modelling, area protection, and stakeholder engagement in various scenarios. PMID:29216310

Studying neighborhood crime across different macro spatial scales: The case of robbery in 4 cities.

PubMed

Hipp, John R; Wo, James C; Kim, Young-An

2017-11-01

Whereas there is a burgeoning literature focusing on the spatial distribution of crime events across neighborhoods or micro-geographic units in a specific city, the present study expands this line of research by selecting four cities that vary across two macro-spatial dimensions: population in the micro-environment, and population in the broader macro-environment. We assess the relationship between measures constructed at different spatial scales and robbery rates in blocks in four cities: 1) San Francisco (high in micro- and macro-environment population); 2) Honolulu (high in micro- but low in macro-environment population); 3) Los Angeles (low in micro- but high in macro-environment population); 4) Sacramento (low in micro- and macro-environment population). Whereas the socio-demographic characteristics of residents further than ½ mile away do not impact robbery rates, the number of people up to 2.5 miles away are related to robbery rates, especially in the two cities with smaller micro-environment population, implying a larger spatial scale than is often considered. The results show that coefficient estimates differ somewhat more between cities differing in micro-environment population compared to those differing based on macro-environment population. It is therefore necessary to consider the broader macro-environment even when focusing on the level of crime across neighborhoods or micro-geographic units within an area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinal variation at microsatellite loci reveals historical secondary intergradation between glacial races of Coregonus artedi (Teleostei: Coregoninae).

PubMed

Turgeon, J; Bernatchez, L

2001-11-11

Classical models of the spatial structure of population genetics rely on the assumption of migration-drift equilibrium, which is seldom met in natural populations having only recently colonized their current range (e.g., postglacial). Population structure then depicts historical events, and counfounding effects due to recent secondary contact between recently differentiated lineages can further counfound analyses of association between geographic and genetic distances. Mitochondrial polymorphisms have revealed the existence of two closely related lineages of the lake cisco, Coregonus artedi, whose significantly different but overlaping geographical distributions provided a weak signal of past range fragmentation blurred by putative subsequent extensive secondary contacts. In this study, we analyzed geographical patterns of genetic variation at seven microsatellite loci among 22 populations of lake cisco located along the axis of an area covered by proglacial lakes 12,000-8,000 years ago in North America. The results clearly confirmed the existence of two genetically distinct races characterized by different sets of microsatellite alleles whose frequencies varied clinally across some 3000 km. Equilibrium and nonequilibrium analyses of isolation by distance revealed historical signal of gene flow resulting from the nearly complete admixture of these races following neutral secondary contacts in their historical habitat and indicated that the colonization process occurred by a stepwise expansion of an eastern (Atlantic) race into a previously established Mississippian race. This historical signal of equilibrium contrasted with the current migration-drift disequilibrium within major extant watersheds and was apparently maintained by high effective population sizes and low migration regimes.

Visual- spatial capacity: gender and sport differences in young volleyball and tennis athletes and non-athletes

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In the general population visual-spatial ability is better in males, due to the influence of biological and socio-cultural factors. We know that sport activity improves motor skills. The aim of this work is to determine if these gender differences exist in young athletes. The orientation test described by Terzi and standardized by Cesaroni, used to measure spatial ability, was carried out on 60 volleyball or 60 tennis athletes as well as on 60 non-sporting subjects. Results The data analysis revealed a worse performance for non-athletes in comparison with athletes in both components of test (p < 0.0001; p = 0.04), with no differences between the volleyball and tennis groups. As far as gender comparison is concerned, as expected in the non- sport group the males presented better values (p < 0.001; p = 0.006). However in both sports groups there weren’t any gender differences in either part of the test (p = 0.18; p = 0.056). Conclusions These results confirm that during athletic preparation in volleyball and tennis the specific training is able to develop spatial ability. Besides, boys and girls have similar performance demands and training experience. It appears that this specific training could be responsible for modifying gender differences in performance of spatial ability during adolescence. PMID:24447526

[Spatial distribution pattern of Chilo suppressalis analyzed by classical method and geostatistics].

PubMed

Yuan, Zheming; Fu, Wei; Li, Fangyi

2004-04-01

Two original samples of Chilo suppressalis and their grid, random and sequence samples were analyzed by classical method and geostatistics to characterize the spatial distribution pattern of C. suppressalis. The limitations of spatial distribution analysis with classical method, especially influenced by the original position of grid, were summarized rather completely. On the contrary, geostatistics characterized well the spatial distribution pattern, congregation intensity and spatial heterogeneity of C. suppressalis. According to geostatistics, the population was up to Poisson distribution in low density. As for higher density population, its distribution was up to aggregative, and the aggregation intensity and dependence range were 0.1056 and 193 cm, respectively. Spatial heterogeneity was also found in the higher density population. Its spatial correlativity in line direction was more closely than that in row direction, and the dependence ranges in line and row direction were 115 and 264 cm, respectively.

Using spatial information technologies as monitoring devices in international watershed conservation along the Senegal River Basin of West Africa.

PubMed

Merem, Edmund C; Twumasi, Yaw A

2008-12-01

In this paper, we present the applications of spatial technologies-Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing-in the international monitoring of river basins particularly analyzing the ecological, hydrological, and socio-economic issues along the Senegal River. The literature on multinational water crisis has for decades focused on mediation aspects of trans-boundary watershed management resulting in limited emphasis placed on the application of advances in geo-spatial information technologies in multinational watershed conservation in the arid areas of the West African sub-region within the Senegal River Basin for decision-making and monitoring. While the basin offers life support in a complex ecosystem that stretches across different nations in a mostly desert region characterized by water scarcity and subsistence economies, there exists recurrent environmental stress induced by both socio-economic and physical factors. Part of the problems consists of flooding, drought and limited access to sufficient quantities of water. These remain particularly sensitive issues that are crucial for the health of a rapidly growing population and the economy. The problems are further compounded due to the threats of climate change and the resultant degradation of almost the region's entire natural resources base. While the pace at which the institutional framework for managing the waters offers opportunities for hydro electricity and irrigated agriculture through the proliferation of dams, it has raised other serious concerns in the region. Even where data exists for confronting these issues, some of them are incompatible and dispersed among different agencies. This not only widens the geo-spatial data gaps, but it hinders the ability to monitor water problems along the basin. This study will fill that gap in research through mix scale methods built on descriptive statistics, GIS and remote sensing techniques by generating spatially referenced data to supplement the existing ones for the management of the Senegal River Basin. The results show the incidence of change predicated on pressures from demography, natural forces and the proliferation of river basin development which resulted in more irrigated areas to meet the needs of the inhabitants of the basin. With the substantial increase in bare surface areas, the basin faces growing exposure to the threats of desertification.

Using Spatial Information Technologies as Monitoring Devices in International Watershed Conservation along the Senegal River Basin of West Africa

PubMed Central

Merem, Edmund C.; Twumasi, Yaw A.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we present the applications of spatial technologies—Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing—in the international monitoring of river basins particularly analyzing the ecological, hydrological, and socio-economic issues along the Senegal River. The literature on multinational water crisis has for decades focused on mediation aspects of trans-boundary watershed management resulting in limited emphasis placed on the application of advances in geo-spatial information technologies in multinational watershed conservation in the arid areas of the West African sub-region within the Senegal River Basin for decision-making and monitoring. While the basin offers life support in a complex ecosystem that stretches across different nations in a mostly desert region characterized by water scarcity and subsistence economies, there exists recurrent environmental stress induced by both socio-economic and physical factors. Part of the problems consists of flooding, drought and limited access to sufficient quantities of water. These remain particularly sensitive issues that are crucial for the health of a rapidly growing population and the economy. The problems are further compounded due to the threats of climate change and the resultant degradation of almost the region’s entire natural resources base. While the pace at which the institutional framework for managing the waters offers opportunities for hydro electricity and irrigated agriculture through the proliferation of dams, it has raised other serious concerns in the region. Even where data exists for confronting these issues, some of them are incompatible and dispersed among different agencies. This not only widens the geo-spatial data gaps, but it hinders the ability to monitor water problems along the basin. This study will fill that gap in research through mix scale methods built on descriptive statistics, GIS and remote sensing techniques by generating spatially referenced data to supplement the existing ones for the management of the Senegal River Basin. The results show the incidence of change predicated on pressures from demography, natural forces and the proliferation of river basin development which resulted in more irrigated areas to meet the needs of the inhabitants of the basin. With the substantial increase in bare surface areas, the basin faces growing exposure to the threats of desertification. PMID:19151444

The influence of solid rocket motor retro-burns on the space debris environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stabroth, Sebastian; Homeister, Maren; Oswald, Michael; Wiedemann, Carsten; Klinkrad, Heiner; Vörsmann, Peter

The ESA space debris population model MASTER (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) considers firings of solid rocket motors (SRM) as a debris source with the associated generation of slag and dust particles. The resulting slag and dust population is a major contribution to the sub-millimetre size debris environment in Earth orbit. The current model version, MASTER-2005, is based on the simulation of 1076 orbital SRM firings which contributed to the long-term debris environment. A comparison of the modelled flux with impact data from returned surfaces shows that the shape and quantity of the modelled SRM dust distribution matches that of recent Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array measurements very well. However, the absolute flux level for dust is under-predicted for some of the analysed Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) surfaces. This points into the direction of some past SRM firings not included in the current event database. The most suitable candidates for these firings are the large number of SRM retro-burns of return capsules. Objects released by those firings have highly eccentric orbits with perigees in the lower regions of the atmosphere. Thus, they produce no long-term effect on the debris environment. However, a large number of those firings during the on-orbit time frame of LDEF might lead to an increase of the dust population for some of the LDEF surfaces. In this paper, the influence of SRM retro-burns on the short- and long-term debris environment is analysed. The existing firing database is updated with gathered information of some 800 Russian retro-firings. Each firing is simulated with the MASTER population generation module. The resulting population is compared against the existing background population of SRM slag and dust particles in terms of spatial density and flux predictions.

Evolutionary demography and the population history of the European early Neolithic.

PubMed

Shennan, Stephen

2009-04-01

In this paper I propose that evolutionary demography and associated theory from human behavioral ecology provide a strong basis for explaining the available evidence for the patterns observed in the first agricultural settlement of Europe in the 7th-5th millennium cal. BC, linking together a variety of what have previously been disconnected observations and casting doubt on some long-standing existing models. An outline of relevant aspects of life history theory, which provides the foundation for understanding demography, is followed by a review of large-scale demographic patterns in the early Neolithic, which point to rapid population increase and a process of demic diffusion. More localized socioeconomic and demographic patterns suggesting rapid expansion to local carrying capacities and an associated growth of inequality in the earliest farming communities of central Europe (the Linear Pottery Culture, or LBK) are then outlined and shown to correspond to predictions of spatial population ecology and reproductive skew theory. Existing models of why it took so long for farming to spread to northern and northwest Europe, which explain the spread in terms of the gradual disruption of hunter-gatherer ways of life, are then questioned in light of evidence for population collapse at the end of the LBK. Finally, some broader implications of the study are presented, including the suggestion that the pattern of an initial agricultural boom followed by a bust may be relevant in other parts of the world.

A bottom up approach to on-road CO2 emissions estimates: improved spatial accuracy and applications for regional planning.

PubMed

Gately, Conor K; Hutyra, Lucy R; Wing, Ian Sue; Brondfield, Max N

2013-03-05

On-road transportation is responsible for 28% of all U.S. fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. Mapping vehicle emissions at regional scales is challenging due to data limitations. Existing emission inventories use spatial proxies such as population and road density to downscale national or state-level data. Such procedures introduce errors where the proxy variables and actual emissions are weakly correlated, and limit analysis of the relationship between emissions and demographic trends at local scales. We develop an on-road emission inventory product for Massachusetts-based on roadway-level traffic data obtained from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). We provide annual estimates of on-road CO2 emissions at a 1 × 1 km grid scale for the years 1980 through 2008. We compared our results with on-road emissions estimates from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), with the Vulcan Product, and with estimates derived from state fuel consumption statistics reported by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Our model differs from FHWA estimates by less than 8.5% on average, and is within 5% of Vulcan estimates. We found that EDGAR estimates systematically exceed FHWA by an average of 22.8%. Panel regression analysis of per-mile CO2 emissions on population density at the town scale shows a statistically significant correlation that varies systematically in sign and magnitude as population density increases. Population density has a positive correlation with per-mile CO2 emissions for densities below 2000 persons km(-2), above which increasing density correlates negatively with per-mile emissions.

Project Baseline: An unprecedented resource to study plant evolution across space and time.

PubMed

Etterson, Julie R; Franks, Steven J; Mazer, Susan J; Shaw, Ruth G; Gorden, Nicole L Soper; Schneider, Heather E; Weber, Jennifer J; Winkler, Katharine J; Weis, Arthur E

2016-01-01

Project Baseline is a seed bank that offers an unprecedented opportunity to examine spatial and temporal dimensions of microevolution during an era of rapid environmental change. Over the upcoming 50 years, biologists will withdraw genetically representative samples of past populations from this time capsule of seeds and grow them contemporaneously with modern samples to detect any phenotypic and molecular evolution that has occurred during the intervening time. We carefully developed this living genome bank using protocols to enhance its experimental value by collecting from multiple populations and species across a broad geographical range in sites that are likely to be preserved into the future. Seeds are accessioned with site and population data and are stored by maternal line under conditions that maximize seed longevity. This open-access resource will be available to researchers at regular intervals to evaluate contemporary evolution. To date, the Project Baseline collection includes 100-200 maternal lines of each of 61 species collected from over 831 populations on sites that are likely to be preserved into the future across the United States (∼78,000 maternal lines). Our strategically designed collection circumvents some problems that can cloud the results of "resurrection" studies involving naturally preserved or existing seed collections that are available fortuitously. The resurrection approach can be coupled with long-established and newer techniques over the next five decades to elucidate genetic change and thereby vastly improve our understanding of temporal and spatial changes in phenotype and the evolutionary processes underlying it. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Assessment of environmental injustice in Korea using synthetic air quality index and multiple indicators of socioeconomic status: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Choi, Giehae; Heo, Seulkee; Lee, Jong-Tae

2016-01-01

Despite the existence of the universal right to a healthy environment, the right is being violated in some populations. The objective of the current study is to verify environmental discrimination associated with socioeconomic status in Korea, using synthetic air quality index and multiple indicators of socioeconomic status. The concentrations of NO₂(nitrogen dioxide), CO (carbon monoxide), SO₂(sulfur dioxide), PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm), and O₃(ozone) in ambient air were integrated into a synthetic air quality index. Socioeconomic status was measured at individual level (income, education, number of household members, occupation, and National Basic Livelihood status) and area level (neighborhood index). The neighborhood index was calculated in the finest administrative unit (municipality) by performing standardization and integration of municipality-level data of the following: number of families receiving National Basic Livelihood, proportion of people engaged in an elementary occupation, population density, and number of service industries. Each study participant was assigned a neighborhood index value of the municipality in which they reside. Six regression models were generated to analyze the relationship between socioeconomic status and overall air pollution. All models were adjusted with sex, age, and smoking status. Stratification was conducted by residency (urban/rural). Moran's I was calculated to identify spatial clusters, and adjusted regression analysis was conducted to account for spatial autocorrelation. Results showed that people with higher neighborhood index, people living with smaller number of family members, and people with no education lived in municipalities with better overall air quality. The association differed by residency in some cases, and consideration of spatial autocorrelation altered the association. This study gives strength to the idea that environmental discrimination exists in some socioeconomic groups in Korea, and that residency and spatial autocorrelation must be considered in order to fully understand environmental disparities. This is the first study that provides the possible evidence of the environmental injustice in Korea using air quality index. The findings suggested that air quality index was negatively correlated with several important socioeconomic status measured at either individual or area level. The main implication of this paper, therefore, is to provide another insight to environmental policy makers to consider environmental injustice problem into community intervention for resolving the public health problems by air pollution.

Utility of computer simulations in landscape genetics

Treesearch

Bryan K. Epperson; Brad H. McRae; Kim Scribner; Samuel A. Cushman; Michael S. Rosenberg; Marie-Josee Fortin; Patrick M. A. James; Melanie Murphy; Stephanie Manel; Pierre Legendre; Mark R. T. Dale

2010-01-01

Population genetics theory is primarily based on mathematical models in which spatial complexity and temporal variability are largely ignored. In contrast, the field of landscape genetics expressly focuses on how population genetic processes are affected by complex spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity. It is spatially explicit and relates patterns to...

Evolution in Mind: Evolutionary Dynamics, Cognitive Processes, and Bayesian Inference.

PubMed

Suchow, Jordan W; Bourgin, David D; Griffiths, Thomas L

2017-07-01

Evolutionary theory describes the dynamics of population change in settings affected by reproduction, selection, mutation, and drift. In the context of human cognition, evolutionary theory is most often invoked to explain the origins of capacities such as language, metacognition, and spatial reasoning, framing them as functional adaptations to an ancestral environment. However, evolutionary theory is useful for understanding the mind in a second way: as a mathematical framework for describing evolving populations of thoughts, ideas, and memories within a single mind. In fact, deep correspondences exist between the mathematics of evolution and of learning, with perhaps the deepest being an equivalence between certain evolutionary dynamics and Bayesian inference. This equivalence permits reinterpretation of evolutionary processes as algorithms for Bayesian inference and has relevance for understanding diverse cognitive capacities, including memory and creativity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonequilibrium Conditions Explain Spatial Variability in Genetic Structuring of Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor)

PubMed Central

Peucker, Amanda J.; Valautham, Sureen K.; Styan, Craig A.; Dann, Peter

2015-01-01

Factors responsible for spatial structuring of population genetic variation are varied, and in many instances there may be no obvious explanations for genetic structuring observed, or those invoked may reflect spurious correlations. A study of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) in southeast Australia documented low spatial structuring of genetic variation with the exception of colonies at the western limit of sampling, and this distinction was attributed to an intervening oceanographic feature (Bonney Upwelling), differences in breeding phenology, or sea level change. Here, we conducted sampling across the entire Australian range, employing additional markers (12 microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA, 697 individuals, 17 colonies). The zone of elevated genetic structuring previously observed actually represents the eastern half of a genetic cline, within which structuring exists over much shorter spatial scales than elsewhere. Colonies separated by as little as 27 km in the zone are genetically distinguishable, while outside the zone, homogeneity cannot be rejected at scales of up to 1400 km. Given a lack of additional physical or environmental barriers to gene flow, the zone of elevated genetic structuring may reflect secondary contact of lineages (with or without selection against interbreeding), or recent colonization and expansion from this region. This study highlights the importance of sampling scale to reveal the cause of genetic structuring. PMID:25833231

Multilevel Spatial Structure Impacts on the Pollination Services of Comarum palustre (Rosaceae)

PubMed Central

Somme, Laurent; Mayer, Carolin; Jacquemart, Anne-Laure

2014-01-01

Habitat destruction and fragmentation accelerate pollinator decline, consequently disrupting ecosystem processes such as pollination. To date, the impacts of multilevel spatial structure on pollination services have rarely been addressed. We focused on the effects of population spatial structure on the pollination services of Comarum palustre at three levels (i.e. within-population, between-populations and landscape). For three years, we investigated 14 Belgian populations, which differed in their within-population flower density, population surface, closure (i.e. proportion of the population edge that consisted of woody elements) and isolation (i.e. percentage of woody area cover within a 500 m radius from the population centre). We tested whether these spatial characteristics impact on pollinator abundance and visitation rate and thus, reproductive success of C. palustre. Insects were observed in 15 randomly-chosen plots in each population. We tested for pollen limitation with supplemental hand-cross pollination. Bumble bees and solitary bees were the major pollinators through all populations. Within populations, plots with high flower densities attracted high numbers of bumble bees and other insects. High bumble bee and solitary bee abundance was observed in populations presenting high proportions of woody edges and in populations within landscapes presenting high proportions of woody areas. Seed set resulting from open pollination varied with bumble bee and solitary bee visitation rate, leading to increased pollen limitation when pollinators were scarce. Since the reproductive success depended on the visitation rate of the main pollinators, which depended on multilevel spatial structure, wetland management plans should pay special attention to favour a mosaic of biotopes, including nesting sites and food resources for insects. This study particularly supports the relevance of a mix wetlands and woody habitats to bees. PMID:24915450

Multilevel spatial structure impacts on the pollination services of Comarum palustre (Rosaceae).

PubMed

Somme, Laurent; Mayer, Carolin; Jacquemart, Anne-Laure

2014-01-01

Habitat destruction and fragmentation accelerate pollinator decline, consequently disrupting ecosystem processes such as pollination. To date, the impacts of multilevel spatial structure on pollination services have rarely been addressed. We focused on the effects of population spatial structure on the pollination services of Comarum palustre at three levels (i.e. within-population, between-populations and landscape). For three years, we investigated 14 Belgian populations, which differed in their within-population flower density, population surface, closure (i.e. proportion of the population edge that consisted of woody elements) and isolation (i.e. percentage of woody area cover within a 500 m radius from the population centre). We tested whether these spatial characteristics impact on pollinator abundance and visitation rate and thus, reproductive success of C. palustre. Insects were observed in 15 randomly-chosen plots in each population. We tested for pollen limitation with supplemental hand-cross pollination. Bumble bees and solitary bees were the major pollinators through all populations. Within populations, plots with high flower densities attracted high numbers of bumble bees and other insects. High bumble bee and solitary bee abundance was observed in populations presenting high proportions of woody edges and in populations within landscapes presenting high proportions of woody areas. Seed set resulting from open pollination varied with bumble bee and solitary bee visitation rate, leading to increased pollen limitation when pollinators were scarce. Since the reproductive success depended on the visitation rate of the main pollinators, which depended on multilevel spatial structure, wetland management plans should pay special attention to favour a mosaic of biotopes, including nesting sites and food resources for insects. This study particularly supports the relevance of a mix wetlands and woody habitats to bees.

Ergodic channel capacity of spatial correlated multiple-input multiple-output free space optical links using multipulse pulse-position modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqin; Wang, Xue; Cao, Minghua

2017-02-01

The spatial correlation extensively exists in the multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) free space optical (FSO) communication systems due to the channel fading and the antenna space limitation. Wilkinson's method was utilized to investigate the impact of spatial correlation on the MIMO FSO communication system employing multipulse pulse-position modulation. Simulation results show that the existence of spatial correlation reduces the ergodic channel capacity, and the reception diversity is more competent to resist this kind of performance degradation.

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Urban environment interventions linked to the promotion of physical activity. A mixed methods study applied to the urban context of Latin America

PubMed Central

Gomez, Luis F; Sarmiento, Rodrigo; Ordoñez, Maria Fernanda; Pardo, Carlos Felipe; de Sá, Thiago Hérick; Mallarino, Christina H; Miranda, J Jaime; Mosquera, Janeth; Parra, Diana Celmira; Reis, Rodrigo; Quistberg, Alex

2015-01-01

This study summarizes the evidence from quantitative systematic reviews that assessed the association between urban environment attributes and physical activity. It also documents sociopolitical barriers and facilitators involved in urban interventions linked with active living in the ten most populated urban settings of Latin America. The synthesis of evidence indicates that several attributes of urban environments are associated with physical activity, including land-use mix and cycling infrastructure. The documentary analysis indicated that despite the benefits and opportunities provided by the programs and existing infrastructure in the examined cities, an overall concern is the rising inequality in the coverage and distribution of the initiatives in the region. If these programs and initiatives are to achieve a real population level effect that helps to reduce health disparities, they need to examine their social and spatial distribution within the cities so they can reach underserved populations and develop to their full potential. PMID:25748111

Urban environment interventions linked to the promotion of physical activity: a mixed methods study applied to the urban context of Latin America.

PubMed

Gomez, Luis F; Sarmiento, Rodrigo; Ordoñez, Maria Fernanda; Pardo, Carlos Felipe; de Sá, Thiago Hérick; Mallarino, Christina H; Miranda, J Jaime; Mosquera, Janeth; Parra, Diana C; Reis, Rodrigo; Quistberg, D Alex

2015-04-01

This study summarizes the evidence from quantitative systematic reviews that assessed the association between urban environment attributes and physical activity. It also documents sociopolitical barriers and facilitators involved in urban interventions linked with active living in the ten most populated urban settings of Latin America. The synthesis of evidence indicates that several attributes of urban environments are associated with physical activity, including land-use mix and cycling infrastructure. The documentary analysis indicated that despite the benefits and opportunities provided by the programs and existing infrastructure in the examined cities, an overall concern is the rising inequality in the coverage and distribution of the initiatives in the region. If these programs and initiatives are to achieve a real population level effect that helps to reduce health disparities, they need to examine their social and spatial distribution within the cities so they can reach underserved populations and develop to their full potential. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Results from the APOGEE IN-SYNC Orion: parameters and radial velocities for thousands of young stars in the Orion Complex.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Da Rio, Nicola; SDSS Apogee IN-SYNC ancillary program Team

2015-01-01

I will present the results of our characterization of the dynamical status of the young stellar population in the Orion A star forming region. This is based on radial velocity measurements obtained within the SDSS-III Apogee IN-SYNC Orion Survey, which obtained high-resolution spectroscopy of ~3000 objects in the region, from the dense Orion Nebula Cluster - the prototypical nearby region of active massive star formation - to the low-density environments of the L1641 region. We find evidence for kinematic subclustering along the star forming filament, where the stellar component remains kinematically associated to the gas; in the ONC we find that the stellar population is supervirial and currently expanding. We rule out the existence of a controversial candidate foreground cluster to the south of the ONC. These results, complemented with an analysis of the spatial structure of the population, enables critical tests of theories that describe the formation and early evolution of Orion and young clusters in general.

Insights on the drivers of genetic divergence in the European anchovy.

PubMed

Catanese, Gaetano; Watteaux, Romain; Montes, Iratxe; Barra, Marco; Rumolo, Paola; Borme, Diego; Buongiorno Nardelli, Bruno; Botte, Vincenzo; Mazzocchi, Maria Grazia; Genovese, Simona; Di Capua, Iole; Iriondo, Mikel; Estonba, Andone; Ruggeri, Paolo; Tirelli, Valentina; Caputo-Barucchi, Vincenzo; Basilone, Gualtiero; Bonanno, Angelo; Iudicone, Daniele; Procaccini, Gabriele

2017-06-23

Anchovies represent the largest world's marine fish catches and the current threats on their populations impose a sustainable exploitment based on sound scientific information. In the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), the existence of several populations has been proposed but a global view is missing. Using a multidisciplinary approach, here we assessed the divergence among different ecotypes and its possible causes. SNPs have revealed two functionally distinct ecotypes overlapping in the Central Mediterranean, with one ecotype confined near the river estuaries. The same SNPs outliers also segregated two distinct populations in the near Atlantic, despite their large spatial distance. In addition, while most studies suggested that adaptation to low salinity is key to divergence, here we show that the offshore ecotype has higher environmental tolerance and an opportunistic feeding behaviour, as assessed by the study of environmental conditions, anchovy diet and trophic levels, and passive egg dispersal. These results provide insights into the anchovy evolutionary history, stressing the importance of behaviour in shaping ecotypes.

An advection-diffusion-reaction size-structured fish population dynamics model combined with a statistical parameter estimation procedure: application to the Indian ocean skipjack tuna fishery.

PubMed

Faugeras, Blaise; Maury, Olivier

2005-10-01

We develop an advection-diffusion size-structured fish population dynamics model and apply it to simulate the skipjack tuna population in the Indian Ocean. The model is fully spatialized, and movements are parameterized with oceanographical and biological data; thus it naturally reacts to environment changes. We first formulate an initial-boundary value problem and prove existence of a unique positive solution. We then discuss the numerical scheme chosen for the integration of the simulation model. In a second step we address the parameter estimation problem for such a model. With the help of automatic differentiation, we derive the adjoint code which is used to compute the exact gradient of a Bayesian cost function measuring the distance between the outputs of the model and catch and length frequency data. A sensitivity analysis shows that not all parameters can be estimated from the data. Finally twin experiments in which pertubated parameters are recovered from simulated data are successfully conducted.

The ability of individuals to assess population density influences the evolution of emigration propensity and dispersal distance.

PubMed

Poethke, Hans Joachim; Gros, Andreas; Hovestadt, Thomas

2011-08-07

We analyze the simultaneous evolution of emigration and settlement decisions for actively dispersing species differing in their ability to assess population density. Using an individual-based model we simulate dispersal as a multi-step (patch to patch) movement in a world consisting of habitat patches surrounded by a hostile matrix. Each such step is associated with the same mortality risk. Our simulations show that individuals following an informed strategy, where emigration (and settlement) probability depends on local population density, evolve a lower (natal) emigration propensity but disperse over significantly larger distances - i.e. postpone settlement longer - than individuals performing density-independent emigration. This holds especially when variation in environmental conditions is spatially correlated. Both effects can be traced to the informed individuals' ability to better exploit existing heterogeneity in reproductive chances. Yet, already moderate distance-dependent dispersal costs prevent the evolution of multi-step (long-distance) dispersal, irrespective of the dispersal strategy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population Coding of Visual Space: Comparison of Spatial Representations in Dorsal and Ventral Pathways

PubMed Central

Sereno, Anne B.; Lehky, Sidney R.

2011-01-01

Although the representation of space is as fundamental to visual processing as the representation of shape, it has received relatively little attention from neurophysiological investigations. In this study we characterize representations of space within visual cortex, and examine how they differ in a first direct comparison between dorsal and ventral subdivisions of the visual pathways. Neural activities were recorded in anterior inferotemporal cortex (AIT) and lateral intraparietal cortex (LIP) of awake behaving monkeys, structures associated with the ventral and dorsal visual pathways respectively, as a stimulus was presented at different locations within the visual field. In spatially selective cells, we find greater modulation of cell responses in LIP with changes in stimulus position. Further, using a novel population-based statistical approach (namely, multidimensional scaling), we recover the spatial map implicit within activities of neural populations, allowing us to quantitatively compare the geometry of neural space with physical space. We show that a population of spatially selective LIP neurons, despite having large receptive fields, is able to almost perfectly reconstruct stimulus locations within a low-dimensional representation. In contrast, a population of AIT neurons, despite each cell being spatially selective, provide less accurate low-dimensional reconstructions of stimulus locations. They produce instead only a topologically (categorically) correct rendition of space, which nevertheless might be critical for object and scene recognition. Furthermore, we found that the spatial representation recovered from population activity shows greater translation invariance in LIP than in AIT. We suggest that LIP spatial representations may be dimensionally isomorphic with 3D physical space, while in AIT spatial representations may reflect a more categorical representation of space (e.g., “next to” or “above”). PMID:21344010

The Potential for Spatial Distribution Indices to Signal Thresholds in Marine Fish Biomass

PubMed Central

Reuchlin-Hugenholtz, Emilie

2015-01-01

The frequently observed positive relationship between fish population abundance and spatial distribution suggests that changes in distribution can be indicative of trends in abundance. If contractions in spatial distribution precede declines in spawning stock biomass (SSB), spatial distribution reference points could complement the SSB reference points that are commonly used in marine conservation biology and fisheries management. When relevant spatial distribution information is integrated into fisheries management and recovery plans, risks and uncertainties associated with a plan based solely on the SSB criterion would be reduced. To assess the added value of spatial distribution data, we examine the relationship between SSB and four metrics of spatial distribution intended to reflect changes in population range, concentration, and density for 10 demersal populations (9 species) inhabiting the Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic. Our primary purpose is to assess their potential to serve as indices of SSB, using fisheries independent survey data. We find that metrics of density offer the best correlate of spawner biomass. A decline in the frequency of encountering high density areas is associated with, and in a few cases preceded by, rapid declines in SSB in 6 of 10 populations. Density-based indices have considerable potential to serve both as an indicator of SSB and as spatially based reference points in fisheries management. PMID:25789624

Standing variation in spatially growing populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fusco, Diana; Gralka, Matti; Kayser, Jona; Hallatschek, Oskar

Patterns of genetic diversity not only reflect the evolutionary history of a species but they can also determine the evolutionary response to environmental change. For instance, the standing genetic diversity of a microbial population can be key to rescue in the face of an antibiotic attack. While genetic diversity is in general shaped by both demography and evolution, very little is understood when both factors matter, as e.g. for biofilms with pronounced spatial organization. Here, we quantitatively explore patterns of genetic diversity by using microbial colonies and well-mixed test tube populations as antipodal model systems with extreme and very little spatial structure, respectively. We find that Eden model simulations and KPZ theory can remarkably reproduce the genetic diversity in microbial colonies obtained via population sequencing. The excellent agreement allows to draw conclusions on the resilience of spatially-organized populations and to uncover new strategies to contain antibiotic resistance.

Evaluating optimal therapy robustness by virtual expansion of a sample population, with a case study in cancer immunotherapy

PubMed Central

Barish, Syndi; Ochs, Michael F.; Sontag, Eduardo D.; Gevertz, Jana L.

2017-01-01

Cancer is a highly heterogeneous disease, exhibiting spatial and temporal variations that pose challenges for designing robust therapies. Here, we propose the VEPART (Virtual Expansion of Populations for Analyzing Robustness of Therapies) technique as a platform that integrates experimental data, mathematical modeling, and statistical analyses for identifying robust optimal treatment protocols. VEPART begins with time course experimental data for a sample population, and a mathematical model fit to aggregate data from that sample population. Using nonparametric statistics, the sample population is amplified and used to create a large number of virtual populations. At the final step of VEPART, robustness is assessed by identifying and analyzing the optimal therapy (perhaps restricted to a set of clinically realizable protocols) across each virtual population. As proof of concept, we have applied the VEPART method to study the robustness of treatment response in a mouse model of melanoma subject to treatment with immunostimulatory oncolytic viruses and dendritic cell vaccines. Our analysis (i) showed that every scheduling variant of the experimentally used treatment protocol is fragile (nonrobust) and (ii) discovered an alternative region of dosing space (lower oncolytic virus dose, higher dendritic cell dose) for which a robust optimal protocol exists. PMID:28716945

Development of a local size hierarchy causes regular spacing of trees in an even-aged Abies forest: analyses using spatial autocorrelation and the mark correlation function.

PubMed

Suzuki, Satoshi N; Kachi, Naoki; Suzuki, Jun-Ichirou

2008-09-01

During the development of an even-aged plant population, the spatial distribution of individuals often changes from a clumped pattern to a random or regular one. The development of local size hierarchies in an Abies forest was analysed for a period of 47 years following a large disturbance in 1959. In 1980 all trees in an 8 x 8 m plot were mapped and their height growth after the disturbance was estimated. Their mortality and growth were then recorded at 1- to 4-year intervals between 1980 and 2006. Spatial distribution patterns of trees were analysed by the pair correlation function. Spatial correlations between tree heights were analysed with a spatial autocorrelation function and the mark correlation function. The mark correlation function was able to detect a local size hierarchy that could not be detected by the spatial autocorrelation function alone. The small-scale spatial distribution pattern of trees changed from clumped to slightly regular during the 47 years. Mortality occurred in a density-dependent manner, which resulted in regular spacing between trees after 1980. The spatial autocorrelation and mark correlation functions revealed the existence of tree patches consisting of large trees at the initial stage. Development of a local size hierarchy was detected within the first decade after the disturbance, although the spatial autocorrelation was not negative. Local size hierarchies that developed persisted until 2006, and the spatial autocorrelation became negative at later stages (after about 40 years). This is the first study to detect local size hierarchies as a prelude to regular spacing using the mark correlation function. The results confirm that use of the mark correlation function together with the spatial autocorrelation function is an effective tool to analyse the development of a local size hierarchy of trees in a forest.

Relations between Spatial Distribution, Social Affiliations and Dominance Hierarchy in a Semi-Free Mandrill Population

PubMed Central

Naud, Alexandre; Chailleux, Eloise; Kestens, Yan; Bret, Céline; Desjardins, Dominic; Petit, Odile; Ngoubangoye, Barthélémy; Sueur, Cédric

2016-01-01

Although there exist advantages to group-living in comparison to a solitary lifestyle, costs and gains of group-living may be unequally distributed among group members. Predation risk, vigilance levels and food intake may be unevenly distributed across group spatial geometry and certain within-group spatial positions may be more or less advantageous depending on the spatial distribution of these factors. In species characterized with dominance hierarchy, high-ranking individuals are commonly observed in advantageous spatial position. However, in complex social systems, individuals can develop affiliative relationships that may balance the effect of dominance relationships in individual's spatial distribution. The objective of the present study is to investigate how the group spatial distribution of a semi-free ranging colony of Mandrills relates to its social organization. Using spatial observations in an area surrounding the feeding zone, we tested the three following hypothesis: (1) does dominance hierarchy explain being observed in proximity or far from a food patch? (2) Do affiliative associations also explain being observed in proximity or far from a food patch? (3) Do the differences in rank in the group hierarchy explain being co-observed in proximity of a food patch? Our results showed that high-ranking individuals were more observed in proximity of the feeding zone while low-ranking individuals were more observed at the boundaries of the observation area. Furthermore, we observed that affiliative relationships were also associated with individual spatial distributions and explain more of the total variance of the spatial distribution in comparison with dominance hierarchy. Finally, we found that individuals observed at a same moment in proximity of the feeding zone were more likely to be distant in the hierarchy while controlling for maternal kinship, age and sex similarity. This study brings some elements about how affiliative networks and dominance hierarchy are related to spatial positions in primates. PMID:27199845

Relations between Spatial Distribution, Social Affiliations and Dominance Hierarchy in a Semi-Free Mandrill Population.

PubMed

Naud, Alexandre; Chailleux, Eloise; Kestens, Yan; Bret, Céline; Desjardins, Dominic; Petit, Odile; Ngoubangoye, Barthélémy; Sueur, Cédric

2016-01-01

Although there exist advantages to group-living in comparison to a solitary lifestyle, costs and gains of group-living may be unequally distributed among group members. Predation risk, vigilance levels and food intake may be unevenly distributed across group spatial geometry and certain within-group spatial positions may be more or less advantageous depending on the spatial distribution of these factors. In species characterized with dominance hierarchy, high-ranking individuals are commonly observed in advantageous spatial position. However, in complex social systems, individuals can develop affiliative relationships that may balance the effect of dominance relationships in individual's spatial distribution. The objective of the present study is to investigate how the group spatial distribution of a semi-free ranging colony of Mandrills relates to its social organization. Using spatial observations in an area surrounding the feeding zone, we tested the three following hypothesis: (1) does dominance hierarchy explain being observed in proximity or far from a food patch? (2) Do affiliative associations also explain being observed in proximity or far from a food patch? (3) Do the differences in rank in the group hierarchy explain being co-observed in proximity of a food patch? Our results showed that high-ranking individuals were more observed in proximity of the feeding zone while low-ranking individuals were more observed at the boundaries of the observation area. Furthermore, we observed that affiliative relationships were also associated with individual spatial distributions and explain more of the total variance of the spatial distribution in comparison with dominance hierarchy. Finally, we found that individuals observed at a same moment in proximity of the feeding zone were more likely to be distant in the hierarchy while controlling for maternal kinship, age and sex similarity. This study brings some elements about how affiliative networks and dominance hierarchy are related to spatial positions in primates.

A Theoretical Approach to Analyze the Parametric Influence on Spatial Patterns of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Populations.

PubMed

Garcia, A G; Godoy, W A C

2017-06-01

Studies of the influence of biological parameters on the spatial distribution of lepidopteran insects can provide useful information for managing agricultural pests, since the larvae of many species cause serious impacts on crops. Computational models to simulate the spatial dynamics of insect populations are increasingly used, because of their efficiency in representing insect movement. In this study, we used a cellular automata model to explore different patterns of population distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), when the values of two biological parameters that are able to influence the spatial pattern (larval viability and adult longevity) are varied. We mapped the spatial patterns observed as the parameters varied. Additionally, by using population data for S. frugiperda obtained in different hosts under laboratory conditions, we were able to describe the expected spatial patterns occurring in corn, cotton, millet, and soybean crops based on the parameters varied. The results are discussed from the perspective of insect ecology and pest management. We concluded that computational approaches can be important tools to study the relationship between the biological parameters and spatial distributions of lepidopteran insect pests.

Tracking climate change in a dispersal-limited species: reduced spatial and genetic connectivity in a montane salamander.

PubMed

Velo-Antón, G; Parra, J L; Parra-Olea, G; Zamudio, K R

2013-06-01

Tropical montane taxa are often locally adapted to very specific climatic conditions, contributing to their lower dispersal potential across complex landscapes. Climate and landscape features in montane regions affect population genetic structure in predictable ways, yet few empirical studies quantify the effects of both factors in shaping genetic structure of montane-adapted taxa. Here, we considered temporal and spatial variability in climate to explain contemporary genetic differentiation between populations of the montane salamander, Pseudoeurycea leprosa. Specifically, we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) and measured spatial connectivity and gene flow (using both mtDNA and microsatellite markers) across extant populations of P. leprosa in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TVB). Our results indicate significant spatial and genetic isolation among populations, but we cannot distinguish between isolation by distance over time or current landscape barriers as mechanisms shaping population genetic divergences. Combining ecological niche modelling, spatial connectivity analyses, and historical and contemporary genetic signatures from different classes of genetic markers allows for inference of historical evolutionary processes and predictions of the impacts future climate change will have on the genetic diversity of montane taxa with low dispersal rates. Pseudoeurycea leprosa is one montane species among many endemic to this region and thus is a case study for the continued persistence of spatially and genetically isolated populations in the highly biodiverse TVB of central Mexico. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reconciling Scale Mismatch in Water Governance, Hydro-climatic Processes and Infrastructure Systems of Water Supply in Las Vegas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Alarcon, T.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2013-12-01

Water resource systems are a classic example of a common pool resource due to the high cost of exclusion and the subtractability of the resource; for common pool resources, the performance of governance systems primarily depends on how well matched the institutional arrangements and rules are to the biophysical conditions and social norms. Changes in water governance, hydro-climatic processes and infrastructure systems occur on disparate temporal and spatial scales. A key challenge is the gap between current climate change model resolution, and the spatial and temporal scale of urban water supply decisions. This gap will lead to inappropriate management policies if not mediated through a carefully crafted decision making process. Traditional decision support and planning methods (DSPM) such as classical decision analysis are not equipped to deal with a non-static climate. While emerging methods such as decision scaling, robust decision making and real options are designed to deal with a changing climate, governance systems have evolved under the assumption of a static climate and it is not clear if these methods are well suited to the existing governance regime. In our study, these questions are contextualized by examining an urban water utility that has made significant changes in policy to adapt to changing conditions: the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) which serves metropolitan Las Vegas. Like most desert cities, Las Vegas exists because of water; the artesian springs of the Las Vegas Valley once provided an ample water supply for Native Americans, ranchers and later a small railroad city. However, population growth has increased demands far beyond local supplies. The area now depends on the Colorado River for the majority of its water supply. Natural climate variability with periodic droughts has further challenged water providers; projected climate changes and further population growth will exacerbate these challenges. Las Vegas is selected as a case study due to the combined challenges of population growth and climate change, common in the arid west, and due its cooperative institutional response to these challenges, unprecedented in the arid west. To begin to disentangle this question we have analyzed the institutional arrangements and rules which govern water decision making in the Las Vegas Valley and evaluated the existing DSPM used by the SNWA and partner utilities. Presented here are the preliminary results from an ongoing project.

Density-dependent productivity in a colonial vulture at two spatial scales.

PubMed

Fernández-Bellon, Darío; Cortés-Avizanda, Ainara; Arenas, Rafael; Donázar, José Antonio

2016-02-01

Understanding how density dependence modifies demographic parameters in long-lived vertebrates is a challenge for ecologists. Two alternative hypotheses have been used to explain the mechanisms behind density-dependent effects on breeding output: habitat heterogeneity and individual adjustment (also known as interference competition). A number of studies have highlighted the importance of habitat heterogeneity in density dependence in territorial species, but less information exists on demographic processes in colonial species. For these, we expect density-dependent mechanisms to operate at two spatial scales: colony and breeding unit. In this study, we used long-term data from a recovering population of Cinereous Vultures (Aegypius monachus) in southern Spain. We analyzed a long-term data set with information on 2162 breeding attempts at four colonies over a nine-year period (2002-2010) to evaluate environmental and population parameters influencing breeding output. Our results suggest that breeding productivity is subject to density-dependent processes at the colony and the nest site scale and is best explained by interference competition. Factors intrinsic to each colony, as well as environmental constraints linked to physiography and human presence, also play a role in regulatory processes. We detected the existence of a trade-off between the disadvantages of nesting too close to conspecifics and the benefits of coloniality. These could be mediated by the agonistic interactions between breeding pairs and the benefits derived from social sharing of information by breeding individuals. We propose that this trade-off may play a role in defining colony structure and may hold true for other colonial breeding bird species. Our findings also have important management implications for the conservation of this threatened species.

Social Experiments in the Mesoscale: Humans Playing a Spatial Prisoner's Dilemma

PubMed Central

Grujić, Jelena; Fosco, Constanza; Araujo, Lourdes; Cuesta, José A.; Sánchez, Angel

2010-01-01

Background The evolutionary origin of cooperation among unrelated individuals remains a key unsolved issue across several disciplines. Prominent among the several mechanisms proposed to explain how cooperation can emerge is the existence of a population structure that determines the interactions among individuals. Many models have explored analytically and by simulation the effects of such a structure, particularly in the framework of the Prisoner's Dilemma, but the results of these models largely depend on details such as the type of spatial structure or the evolutionary dynamics. Therefore, experimental work suitably designed to address this question is needed to probe these issues. Methods and Findings We have designed an experiment to test the emergence of cooperation when humans play Prisoner's Dilemma on a network whose size is comparable to that of simulations. We find that the cooperation level declines to an asymptotic state with low but nonzero cooperation. Regarding players' behavior, we observe that the population is heterogeneous, consisting of a high percentage of defectors, a smaller one of cooperators, and a large group that shares features of the conditional cooperators of public goods games. We propose an agent-based model based on the coexistence of these different strategies that is in good agreement with all the experimental observations. Conclusions In our large experimental setup, cooperation was not promoted by the existence of a lattice beyond a residual level (around 20%) typical of public goods experiments. Our findings also indicate that both heterogeneity and a “moody” conditional cooperation strategy, in which the probability of cooperating also depends on the player's previous action, are required to understand the outcome of the experiment. These results could impact the way game theory on graphs is used to model human interactions in structured groups. PMID:21103058

Large ice particles associated with small ice water content observed by AIM CIPS imagery of polar mesospheric clouds: Evidence for microphysical coupling with small-scale dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusch, D.; Thomas, G.; Merkel, A.; Olivero, J.; Chandran, A.; Lumpe, J.; Carstans, J.; Randall, C.; Bailey, S.; Russell, J.

2017-09-01

Observations by the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument on the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite have demonstrated the existence of Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) regions populated by particles whose mean sizes range between 60 and 100 nm (radii of equivalent volume spheres). It is known from numerous satellite experiments that typical mean PMC particle sizes are of the order of 40-50 nm. Determination of particle size by CIPS is accomplished by measuring the scattering of solar radiation at various scattering angles at a spatial resolution of 25 km2. In this size range we find a robust anti-correlation between mean particle size and albedo. These very-large particle-low-ice (VLP-LI) clouds occur over spatially coherent areas. The surprising result is that VLP-LI are frequently present either in the troughs of gravity wave-like features or at the edges of PMC voids. We postulate that an association with gravity waves exists in the low-temperature summertime mesopause region, and illustrate the mechanism by a gravity wave simulation through use of the 2D Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). The model results are consistent with a VLP-LI population in the cold troughs of monochromatic gravity waves. In addition, we find such events in Whole Earth Community Climate Model/CARMA simulations, suggesting the possible importance of sporadic downward winds in heating the upper cloud regions. This newly-discovered association enhances our understanding of the interaction of ice microphysics with dynamical processes in the upper mesosphere.

A density cusp of quiescent X-ray binaries in the central parsec of the Galaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hailey, Charles J.; Mori, Kaya; Bauer, Franz E.; Berkowitz, Michael E.; Hong, Jaesub; Hord, Benjamin J.

2018-04-01

The existence of a ‘density cusp’—a localized increase in number—of stellar-mass black holes near a supermassive black hole is a fundamental prediction of galactic stellar dynamics. The best place to detect such a cusp is in the Galactic Centre, where the nearest supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A*, resides. As many as 20,000 black holes are predicted to settle into the central parsec of the Galaxy as a result of dynamical friction; however, so far no density cusp of black holes has been detected. Low-mass X-ray binary systems that contain a stellar-mass black hole are natural tracers of isolated black holes. Here we report observations of a dozen quiescent X-ray binaries in a density cusp within one parsec of Sagittarius A*. The lower-energy emission spectra that we observed in these binaries is distinct from the higher-energy spectra associated with the population of accreting white dwarfs that dominates the central eight parsecs of the Galaxy. The properties of these X-ray binaries, in particular their spatial distribution and luminosity function, suggest the existence of hundreds of binary systems in the central parsec of the Galaxy and many more isolated black holes. We cannot rule out a contribution to the observed emission from a population (of up to about one-half the number of X-ray binaries) of rotationally powered, millisecond pulsars. The spatial distribution of the binary systems is a relic of their formation history, either in the stellar disk around Sagittarius A* (ref. 7) or through in-fall from globular clusters, and constrains the number density of sources in the modelling of gravitational waves from massive stellar remnants, such as neutron stars and black holes.

A density cusp of quiescent X-ray binaries in the central parsec of the Galaxy.

PubMed

Hailey, Charles J; Mori, Kaya; Bauer, Franz E; Berkowitz, Michael E; Hong, Jaesub; Hord, Benjamin J

2018-04-04

The existence of a 'density cusp'-a localized increase in number-of stellar-mass black holes near a supermassive black hole is a fundamental prediction of galactic stellar dynamics. The best place to detect such a cusp is in the Galactic Centre, where the nearest supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A*, resides. As many as 20,000 black holes are predicted to settle into the central parsec of the Galaxy as a result of dynamical friction; however, so far no density cusp of black holes has been detected. Low-mass X-ray binary systems that contain a stellar-mass black hole are natural tracers of isolated black holes. Here we report observations of a dozen quiescent X-ray binaries in a density cusp within one parsec of Sagittarius A*. The lower-energy emission spectra that we observed in these binaries is distinct from the higher-energy spectra associated with the population of accreting white dwarfs that dominates the central eight parsecs of the Galaxy. The properties of these X-ray binaries, in particular their spatial distribution and luminosity function, suggest the existence of hundreds of binary systems in the central parsec of the Galaxy and many more isolated black holes. We cannot rule out a contribution to the observed emission from a population (of up to about one-half the number of X-ray binaries) of rotationally powered, millisecond pulsars. The spatial distribution of the binary systems is a relic of their formation history, either in the stellar disk around Sagittarius A* (ref. 7) or through in-fall from globular clusters, and constrains the number density of sources in the modelling of gravitational waves from massive stellar remnants, such as neutron stars and black holes.

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

The impact of natural transformation on adaptation in spatially structured bacterial populations.

PubMed

Moradigaravand, Danesh; Engelstädter, Jan

2014-06-20

Recent studies have demonstrated that natural transformation and the formation of highly structured populations in bacteria are interconnected. In spite of growing evidence about this connection, little is known about the dynamics of natural transformation in spatially structured bacterial populations. In this work, we model the interdependency between the dynamics of the bacterial gene pool and those of environmental DNA in space to dissect the effect of transformation on adaptation. Our model reveals that even with only a single locus under consideration, transformation with a free DNA fragment pool results in complex adaptation dynamics that do not emerge in previous models focusing only on the gene shuffling effect of transformation at multiple loci. We demonstrate how spatial restriction on population growth and DNA diffusion in the environment affect the impact of transformation on adaptation. We found that in structured bacterial populations intermediate DNA diffusion rates predominantly cause transformation to impede adaptation by spreading deleterious alleles in the population. Overall, our model highlights distinctive evolutionary consequences of bacterial transformation in spatially restricted compared to planktonic bacterial populations.

Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks?

Treesearch

Bjorn Okland; Andrew M. Liebhold; Ottar N. Bjornstad; Nadir Erbilgin; Paal Krokene; Paal Krokene

2005-01-01

Comparisons of intraspecific spatial synchrony across multiple epidemic insect species can be useful for generating hypotheses about major determinants of population patterns at larger scales. The present study compares patterns of spatial synchrony in outbreaks of six epidemic bark beetle species in North America and Europe. Spatial synchrony among populations of the...

Spatial optimization of prairie dog colonies for black-footed ferret recovery

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; John G. Hof; Daniel W. Uresk; Gregory L. Schenbeck

1997-01-01

A discrete-time reaction-diffusion model for black-footed ferret release, population growth, and dispersal is combined with ferret carrying capacity constraints based on prairie dog population management decisions to form a spatial optimization model. Spatial arrangement of active prairie dog colonies within a ferret reintroduction area is optimized over time for...

Assessing the role of spatial correlations during collective cell spreading

PubMed Central

Treloar, Katrina K.; Simpson, Matthew J.; Binder, Benjamin J.; McElwain, D. L. Sean; Baker, Ruth E.

2014-01-01

Spreading cell fronts are essential features of development, repair and disease processes. Many mathematical models used to describe the motion of cell fronts, such as Fisher's equation, invoke a mean–field assumption which implies that there is no spatial structure, such as cell clustering, present. Here, we examine the presence of spatial structure using a combination of in vitro circular barrier assays, discrete random walk simulations and pair correlation functions. In particular, we analyse discrete simulation data using pair correlation functions to show that spatial structure can form in a spreading population of cells either through sufficiently strong cell–to–cell adhesion or sufficiently rapid cell proliferation. We analyse images from a circular barrier assay describing the spreading of a population of MM127 melanoma cells using the same pair correlation functions. Our results indicate that the spreading melanoma cell populations remain very close to spatially uniform, suggesting that the strength of cell–to–cell adhesion and the rate of cell proliferation are both sufficiently small so as not to induce any spatial patterning in the spreading populations. PMID:25026987

Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests

PubMed Central

Olivero, Jesús; Fa, John E.; Farfán, Miguel A.; Lewis, Jerome; Hewlett, Barry; Breuer, Thomas; Carpaneto, Giuseppe M.; Fernández, María; Germi, Francesco; Hattori, Shiho; Head, Josephine; Ichikawa, Mitsuo; Kitanaishi, Koichi; Knights, Jessica; Matsuura, Naoki; Migliano, Andrea; Nese, Barbara; Noss, Andrew; Ekoumou, Dieudonné Ongbwa; Paulin, Pascale; Real, Raimundo; Riddell, Mike; Stevenson, Edward G. J.; Toda, Mikako; Vargas, J. Mario; Yasuoka, Hirokazu; Nasi, Robert

2016-01-01

Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples’ culture and lifestyles. PMID:26735953

Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests.

PubMed

Olivero, Jesús; Fa, John E; Farfán, Miguel A; Lewis, Jerome; Hewlett, Barry; Breuer, Thomas; Carpaneto, Giuseppe M; Fernández, María; Germi, Francesco; Hattori, Shiho; Head, Josephine; Ichikawa, Mitsuo; Kitanaishi, Koichi; Knights, Jessica; Matsuura, Naoki; Migliano, Andrea; Nese, Barbara; Noss, Andrew; Ekoumou, Dieudonné Ongbwa; Paulin, Pascale; Real, Raimundo; Riddell, Mike; Stevenson, Edward G J; Toda, Mikako; Vargas, J Mario; Yasuoka, Hirokazu; Nasi, Robert

2016-01-01

Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples' culture and lifestyles.

The walk is never random: subtle landscape effects shape gene flow in a continuous white-tailed deer population in the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Lopez, Davin L.; Shelton, Paul

2012-01-01

One of the pervasive challenges in landscape genetics is detecting gene flow patterns within continuous populations of highly mobile wildlife. Understanding population genetic structure within a continuous population can give insights into social structure, movement across the landscape and contact between populations, which influence ecological interactions, reproductive dynamics or pathogen transmission. We investigated the genetic structure of a large population of deer spanning the area of Wisconsin and Illinois, USA, affected by chronic wasting disease. We combined multiscale investigation, landscape genetic techniques and spatial statistical modelling to address the complex questions of landscape factors influencing population structure. We sampled over 2000 deer and used spatial autocorrelation and a spatial principal components analysis to describe the population genetic structure. We evaluated landscape effects on this pattern using a spatial autoregressive model within a model selection framework to test alternative hypotheses about gene flow. We found high levels of genetic connectivity, with gradients of variation across the large continuous population of white-tailed deer. At the fine scale, spatial clustering of related animals was correlated with the amount and arrangement of forested habitat. At the broader scale, impediments to dispersal were important to shaping genetic connectivity within the population. We found significant barrier effects of individual state and interstate highways and rivers. Our results offer an important understanding of deer biology and movement that will help inform the management of this species in an area where overabundance and disease spread are primary concerns.

EVIDENCE FROM THYMIDINE-3H-LABELED MERISTEMS OF VICIA FABA OF TWO CELL POPULATIONS

PubMed Central

Webster, P. L.; Davidson, D.

1968-01-01

Treatments with tritiated thymidine (TdR-3H) have revealed the existence of two populations of mitotically active cells in meristems of lateral roots of Vicia faba. A rapidly dividing population, with a cycle time of 14 hr, constitutes about half the cells in the meristem. A second population of cells, with a cycle time in excess of 30 hr, is also present. Estimates of the relative size of this slowly dividing population are more difficult to make, but we calculate that this population includes 27–43% of meristem cells. The remaining fraction of the meristem is made up of cells that divide rarely or not at all. Since, at all times, both populations contribute to the mitotic index, the curve of the percentage of labeled mitoses that can be determined after a pulse label with TdR-3H differs from the curve expected of an ideal population in an important way: the peak value of the curve of the percentage of labeled mitoses is always less than 100%, usually between 75 and 80%. This heterogeneity within a meristem must be borne in mind in terms of the response of meristems to disruptive treatments, the mechanisms controlling mitotic cycle duration, and the spatial organization of a heterogeneous population in an organ that shows polarized growth. PMID:5677968

AccessMod 3.0: computing geographic coverage and accessibility to health care services using anisotropic movement of patients

PubMed Central

Ray, Nicolas; Ebener, Steeve

2008-01-01

Background Access to health care can be described along four dimensions: geographic accessibility, availability, financial accessibility and acceptability. Geographic accessibility measures how physically accessible resources are for the population, while availability reflects what resources are available and in what amount. Combining these two types of measure into a single index provides a measure of geographic (or spatial) coverage, which is an important measure for assessing the degree of accessibility of a health care network. Results This paper describes the latest version of AccessMod, an extension to the Geographical Information System ArcView 3.×, and provides an example of application of this tool. AccessMod 3 allows one to compute geographic coverage to health care using terrain information and population distribution. Four major types of analysis are available in AccessMod: (1) modeling the coverage of catchment areas linked to an existing health facility network based on travel time, to provide a measure of physical accessibility to health care; (2) modeling geographic coverage according to the availability of services; (3) projecting the coverage of a scaling-up of an existing network; (4) providing information for cost effectiveness analysis when little information about the existing network is available. In addition to integrating travelling time, population distribution and the population coverage capacity specific to each health facility in the network, AccessMod can incorporate the influence of landscape components (e.g. topography, river and road networks, vegetation) that impact travelling time to and from facilities. Topographical constraints can be taken into account through an anisotropic analysis that considers the direction of movement. We provide an example of the application of AccessMod in the southern part of Malawi that shows the influences of the landscape constraints and of the modes of transportation on geographic coverage. Conclusion By incorporating the demand (population) and the supply (capacities of heath care centers), AccessMod provides a unifying tool to efficiently assess the geographic coverage of a network of health care facilities. This tool should be of particular interest to developing countries that have a relatively good geographic information on population distribution, terrain, and health facility locations. PMID:19087277

Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating that neither spatial independence nor individual recognition is needed to estimate population density—rather, spatial dependence can be informative about individual distribution and density.

[Spatial point pattern analysis of main trees and flowering Fargesia qinlingensis in Abies fargesii forests in Mt Taibai of the Qinling Mountains, China].

PubMed

Li, Guo Chun; Song, Hua Dong; Li, Qi; Bu, Shu Hai

2017-11-01

In Abies fargesii forests of the giant panda's habitats in Mt. Taibai, the spatial distribution patterns and interspecific associations of main tree species and their spatial associations with the understory flowering Fargesia qinlingensis were analyzed at multiple scales by univariate and bivaria-te O-ring function in point pattern analysis. The results showed that in the A. fargesii forest, the number of A. fargesii was largest but its population structure was in decline. The population of Betula platyphylla was relatively young, with a stable population structure, while the population of B. albo-sinensis declined. The three populations showed aggregated distributions at small scales and gradually showed random distributions with increasing spatial scales. Spatial associations among tree species were mainly showed at small scales and gradually became not spatially associated with increasing scale. A. fargesii and B. platyphylla were positively associated with flowering F. qinlingensis at large and medium scales, whereas B. albo-sinensis showed negatively associated with flowering F. qinlingensis at large and medium scales. The interaction between trees and F. qinlingensis in the habitats of giant panda promoted the dynamic succession and development of forests, which changed the environment of giant panda's habitats in Qinling.

Enhancing Disaster Management: Development of a Spatial Database of Day Care Centers in the USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Nagendra; Tuttle, Mark A.; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.

Children under the age of five constitute around 7% of the total U.S. population and represent a segment of the population, which is totally dependent on others for day-to-day activities. A significant proportion of this population spends time in some form of day care arrangement while their parents are away from home. Accounting for those children during emergencies is of high priority, which requires a broad understanding of the locations of such day care centers. As concentrations of at risk population, the spatial location of day care centers is critical for any type of emergency preparedness and response (EPR). However,more » until recently, the U.S. emergency preparedness and response community did not have access to a comprehensive spatial database of day care centers at the national scale. This paper describes an approach for the development of the first comprehensive spatial database of day care center locations throughout the USA utilizing a variety of data harvesting techniques to integrate information from widely disparate data sources followed by geolocating for spatial precision. In the context of disaster management, such spatially refined demographic databases hold tremendous potential for improving high resolution population distribution and dynamics models and databases.« less

Enhancing Disaster Management: Development of a Spatial Database of Day Care Centers in the USA

DOE PAGES

Singh, Nagendra; Tuttle, Mark A.; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.

2015-07-30

Children under the age of five constitute around 7% of the total U.S. population and represent a segment of the population, which is totally dependent on others for day-to-day activities. A significant proportion of this population spends time in some form of day care arrangement while their parents are away from home. Accounting for those children during emergencies is of high priority, which requires a broad understanding of the locations of such day care centers. As concentrations of at risk population, the spatial location of day care centers is critical for any type of emergency preparedness and response (EPR). However,more » until recently, the U.S. emergency preparedness and response community did not have access to a comprehensive spatial database of day care centers at the national scale. This paper describes an approach for the development of the first comprehensive spatial database of day care center locations throughout the USA utilizing a variety of data harvesting techniques to integrate information from widely disparate data sources followed by geolocating for spatial precision. In the context of disaster management, such spatially refined demographic databases hold tremendous potential for improving high resolution population distribution and dynamics models and databases.« less

Spatial Pattern of Attacks of the Invasive Woodwasp Sirex noctilio, at Landscape and Stand Scales.

PubMed

Lantschner, M Victoria; Corley, Juan C

2015-01-01

Invasive insect pests are responsible for important damage to native and plantation forests, when population outbreaks occur. Understanding the spatial pattern of attacks by forest pest populations is essential to improve our understanding of insect population dynamics and for predicting attack risk by invasives or planning pest management strategies. The woodwasp Sirex noctilio is an invasive woodwasp that has become probably the most important pest of pine plantations in the Southern Hemisphere. Our aim was to study the spatial dynamics of S. noctilio populations in Southern Argentina. Specifically we describe: (1) the spatial patterns of S. noctilio outbreaks and their relation with environmental factors at a landscape scale; and (2) characterize the spatial pattern of attacked trees at the stand scale. We surveyed the spatial distribution of S. noctilio outbreaks in three pine plantation landscapes, and we assessed potential associations with topographic variables, habitat characteristics, and distance to other outbreaks. We also looked at the spatial distribution of attacked trees in 20 stands with different levels of infestation, and assessed the relationship of attacks with stand composition and management. We found that the spatial pattern of pine stands with S. noctilio outbreaks at the landscape scale is influenced mainly by the host species present, slope aspect, and distance to other outbreaks. At a stand scale, there is strong aggregation of attacked trees in stands with intermediate infestation levels, and the degree of attacks is influenced by host species and plantation management. We conclude that the pattern of S. noctilio damage at different spatial scales is influenced by a combination of both inherent population dynamics and the underlying patterns of environmental factors. Our results have important implications for the understanding and management of invasive insect outbreaks in forest systems.

Spatial Models for Prediction and Early Warning of Aedes aegypti Proliferation from Data on Climate Change and Variability in Cuba.

PubMed

Ortiz, Paulo L; Rivero, Alina; Linares, Yzenia; Pérez, Alina; Vázquez, Juan R

2015-04-01

Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases. Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission. An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bultó indices -1 and -2. Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autoregressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi. Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level. Using the Bultó indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 x 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for epidemiological surveillance.

Historical distribution and host-vector diversity of Francisella tularensis, the causative agent of tularemia, in Ukraine.

PubMed

Hightower, Jake; Kracalik, Ian T; Vydayko, Nataliya; Goodin, Douglas; Glass, Gregory; Blackburn, Jason K

2014-10-16

Francisella tularensis, the causative agent of tularemia, is a zoonotic agent that remains across much of the northern hemisphere, where it exists in enzootic cycles. In Ukraine, tularemia has a long history that suggests a need for sustained surveillance in natural foci. To better characterize the host-vector diversity and spatial distribution of tularemia, we analyzed historical data from field collections carried out from 1941 to 2008. We analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution of bacterial isolates collected from field samples. Isolates were characterized by source and dominant land cover type. To identify environmental persistence and spatial variation in the source of isolation, we used the space-time permutation and multinomial models in SaTScan. A total of 3,086 positive isolates were taken from 1,084 geographic locations. Isolation of F. tularensis was more frequent among arthropods [n = 2,045 (66.3%)] followed by mammals [n = 619 (20.1%)], water [n = 393 (12.7%)], and farm produce [n = 29 (0.94%)], respectively. Four areas of persistent bacterial isolation were identified. Water and farm produce as sources of bacterial isolation were clustered. Our findings confirm the presence of long-standing natural foci of F. tularensis in Ukraine. Given the history of tularemia as well as its environmental persistence there exists a possibility of (re)emergence in human populations. Heterogeneity in the distribution of tularemia isolate recovery related to land cover type supports the theory of natural nidality and clusters identify areas to target potential sources of the pathogen and improve surveillance.

Building the Foundation for International Conservation Planning for Breeding Ducks across the U.S. and Canadian Border

PubMed Central

Doherty, Kevin E.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Walker, Johann; Devries, James H.; Howerter, David W.

2015-01-01

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the PPR and predict between 62.1 – 79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year from 2002 – 2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding Pair and Habitat Survey (r2 = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking habitat and population goals across this important region. PMID:25714747

Wildlife disease ecology from the individual to the population: Insights from a long-term study of a naturally infected European badger population.

PubMed

McDonald, Jenni L; Robertson, Andrew; Silk, Matthew J

2018-01-01

Long-term individual-based datasets on host-pathogen systems are a rare and valuable resource for understanding the infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. A study of European badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) at Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire (UK) has produced a unique dataset, facilitating investigation of a diverse range of epidemiological and ecological questions with implications for disease management. Since the 1970s, this badger population has been monitored with a systematic mark-recapture regime yielding a dataset of >15,000 captures of >3,000 individuals, providing detailed individual life-history, morphometric, genetic, reproductive and disease data. The annual prevalence of bTB in the Woodchester Park badger population exhibits no straightforward relationship with population density, and both the incidence and prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis show marked variation in space. The study has revealed phenotypic traits that are critical for understanding the social structure of badger populations along with mechanisms vital for understanding disease spread at different spatial resolutions. Woodchester-based studies have provided key insights into how host ecology can influence infection at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, it has revealed heterogeneity in epidemiological parameters; intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting population dynamics; provided insights into senescence and individual life histories; and revealed consistent individual variation in foraging patterns, refuge use and social interactions. An improved understanding of ecological and epidemiological processes is imperative for effective disease management. Woodchester Park research has provided information of direct relevance to bTB management, and a better appreciation of the role of individual heterogeneity in disease transmission can contribute further in this regard. The Woodchester Park study system now offers a rare opportunity to seek a dynamic understanding of how individual-, group- and population-level processes interact. The wealth of existing data makes it possible to take a more integrative approach to examining how the consequences of individual heterogeneity scale to determine population-level pathogen dynamics and help advance our understanding of the ecological drivers of host-pathogen systems. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Spatial landuse planning using land evaluation and dynamic system to define sustainable area of paddy field: Case study in Karawang Regency, West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiatmaka, Widiatmaka; Ambarwulan, Wiwin; Firmansyah, Irman; Munibah, Khursatul; Santoso, Paulus B. K.

2015-04-01

Indonesia is the country with the 4th largest population in the worlds; the population reached more than 237 million people. With rice as the staple food for more than 95 percent of the population, there is an important role of paddy field in Indonesian food security. Actually, paddy field in Java has produced 52,6% of the total rice production in Indonesia, showing the very high dependence of Indonesia on food production from paddy fields in Java island. Karawang Regency is one of the regions in West Java Province that contribute to the national food supply, due to its high soil fertility and its high extent of paddy field. Dynamics of land use change in this region are high because of its proximity to urban area; this dynamics has led to paddy field conversion to industry and residential landuse, which in turn change the regional rice production capacity. Decreasing paddy field landuse in this region could be serve as an example case of the general phenomena which occurred in Javanese rice production region. The objective of this study were: (i) to identify the suitable area for paddy field, (ii) to modelize the decreasing of paddy field in socio-economic context of the region, and (iii) to plan the spatial priority area of paddy field protection according to model prediction. A land evaluation for paddy was completed after a soil survey, while IKONOS imagery was analyzed to delineate paddy fields. Dynamic system model of paddy field land use is built, and then based on the model built, the land area of paddy field untill 2040 in some scenarios was developped. The research results showed that the land suitability class for paddy fields in Karawang Regency ranged from very suitable (S1) to marginally suitable (S3), with various land characteristics as limiting factors. The model predicts that if the situation of paddy field land use change continues in its business as usual path, paddy field area that would exist in the region in 2040 will stay half of the recent area. Based on the model, the scenario were developed for the protection of priority area. With such scenario, paddy field remains close to the value predicted oficially. Spatial information then can play a role by presenting the scenario spatially. Combining spatial information with land suitability, priority areas of paddy field protection can be delineated. Policies that followed also then be compiled, including the location of protection. Key-words: Land evaluation, food security, spatial information

Understanding the Spatial Scale of Genetic Connectivity at Sea: Unique Insights from a Land Fish and a Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Cooke, Georgina M; Schlub, Timothy E; Sherwin, William B; Ord, Terry J

2016-01-01

Quantifying the spatial scale of population connectivity is important for understanding the evolutionary potential of ecologically divergent populations and for designing conservation strategies to preserve those populations. For marine organisms like fish, the spatial scale of connectivity is generally set by a pelagic larval phase. This has complicated past estimates of connectivity because detailed information on larval movements are difficult to obtain. Genetic approaches provide a tractable alternative and have the added benefit of estimating directly the reproductive isolation of populations. In this study, we leveraged empirical estimates of genetic differentiation among populations with simulations and a meta-analysis to provide a general estimate of the spatial scale of genetic connectivity in marine environments. We used neutral genetic markers to first quantify the genetic differentiation of ecologically-isolated adult populations of a land dwelling fish, the Pacific leaping blenny (Alticus arnoldorum), where marine larval dispersal is the only probable means of connectivity among populations. We then compared these estimates to simulations of a range of marine dispersal scenarios and to collated FST and distance data from the literature for marine fish across diverse spatial scales. We found genetic connectivity at sea was extensive among marine populations and in the case of A. arnoldorum, apparently little affected by the presence of ecological barriers. We estimated that ~5000 km (with broad confidence intervals ranging from 810-11,692 km) was the spatial scale at which evolutionarily meaningful barriers to gene flow start to occur at sea, although substantially shorter distances are also possible for some taxa. In general, however, such a large estimate of connectivity has important implications for the evolutionary and conservation potential of many marine fish communities.

Incorporating spatial constraint in co-activation pattern analysis to explore the dynamics of resting-state networks: An application to Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Zhuang, Xiaowei; Walsh, Ryan R; Sreenivasan, Karthik; Yang, Zhengshi; Mishra, Virendra; Cordes, Dietmar

2018-05-15

The dynamics of the brain's intrinsic networks have been recently studied using co-activation pattern (CAP) analysis. The CAP method relies on few model assumptions and CAP-based measurements provide quantitative information of network temporal dynamics. One limitation of existing CAP-related methods is that the computed CAPs share considerable spatial overlap that may or may not be functionally distinct relative to specific network dynamics. To more accurately describe network dynamics with spatially distinct CAPs, and to compare network dynamics between different populations, a novel data-driven CAP group analysis method is proposed in this study. In the proposed method, a dominant-CAP (d-CAP) set is synthesized across CAPs from multiple clustering runs for each group with the constraint of low spatial similarities among d-CAPs. Alternating d-CAPs with less overlapping spatial patterns can better capture overall network dynamics. The number of d-CAPs, the temporal fraction and spatial consistency of each d-CAP, and the subject-specific switching probability among all d-CAPs are then calculated for each group and used to compare network dynamics between groups. The spatial dissimilarities among d-CAPs computed with the proposed method were first demonstrated using simulated data. High consistency between simulated ground-truth and computed d-CAPs was achieved, and detailed comparisons between the proposed method and existing CAP-based methods were conducted using simulated data. In an effort to physiologically validate the proposed technique and investigate network dynamics in a relevant brain network disorder, the proposed method was then applied to data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) database to compare the network dynamics in Parkinson's disease (PD) and normal control (NC) groups. Fewer d-CAPs, skewed distribution of temporal fractions of d-CAPs, and reduced switching probabilities among final d-CAPs were found in most networks in the PD group, as compared to the NC group. Furthermore, an overall negative association between switching probability among d-CAPs and disease severity was observed in most networks in the PD group as well. These results expand upon previous findings from in vivo electrophysiological recording studies in PD. Importantly, this novel analysis also demonstrates that changes in network dynamics can be measured using resting-state fMRI data from subjects with early stage PD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

A guide to calculating habitat-quality metrics to inform conservation of highly mobile species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bieri, Joanna A.; Sample, Christine; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Earl, Julia E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Federico, Paula; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Semmens, Darius J.; Skraber, T.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady J.

2018-01-01

Many metrics exist for quantifying the relative value of habitats and pathways used by highly mobile species. Properly selecting and applying such metrics requires substantial background in mathematics and understanding the relevant management arena. To address this multidimensional challenge, we demonstrate and compare three measurements of habitat quality: graph-, occupancy-, and demographic-based metrics. Each metric provides insights into system dynamics, at the expense of increasing amounts and complexity of data and models. Our descriptions and comparisons of diverse habitat-quality metrics provide means for practitioners to overcome the modeling challenges associated with management or conservation of such highly mobile species. Whereas previous guidance for applying habitat-quality metrics has been scattered in diversified tracks of literature, we have brought this information together into an approachable format including accessible descriptions and a modeling case study for a typical example that conservation professionals can adapt for their own decision contexts and focal populations.Considerations for Resource ManagersManagement objectives, proposed actions, data availability and quality, and model assumptions are all relevant considerations when applying and interpreting habitat-quality metrics.Graph-based metrics answer questions related to habitat centrality and connectivity, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify basic spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require the least data.Occupancy-based metrics answer questions about likelihood of persistence or colonization, are suitable for populations that undergo localized extinctions, quantify spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require a moderate amount of data.Demographic-based metrics answer questions about relative or absolute population size, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify demographic processes and population dynamics, and require the most data.More real-world examples applying occupancy-based, agent-based, and continuous-based metrics to seasonally migratory species are needed to better understand challenges and opportunities for applying these metrics more broadly.

Spatial Dynamics and Determinants of County-Level Education Expenditure in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gu, Jiafeng

2012-01-01

In this paper, a multivariate spatial autoregressive model of local public education expenditure determination with autoregressive disturbance is developed and estimated. The existence of spatial interdependence is tested using Moran's I statistic and Lagrange multiplier test statistics for both the spatial error and spatial lag models. The full…

Evidence that implicit assumptions of ‘no evolution’ of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale

PubMed Central

Egizi, Andrea; Fefferman, Nina H.; Fonseca, Dina M.

2015-01-01

Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7–10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics. PMID:25688024

Mapping risk of avian influenza transmission at the interface of domestic poultry and wild birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prosser, Diann J.; Hungerford, Laura L.; Erwin, R. Michael; Ottinger, Mary Ann; Takekawa, John Y.; Ellis, Erle C.

2013-01-01

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) (emerged in 1996) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. Understanding the spatial and temporal interface between wild and domestic populations, from which these viruses emerge, is fundamental to taking action. This information, however, is rarely considered in influenza risk models, partly due to a lack of data. We aim to identify areas of high transmission risk between domestic poultry and wild waterfowl in China, the epicenter of both viruses. Two levels of models were developed: one that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds, and one that incorporates H5N1 risk factors, for which input data exists. Models were produced at 1 and 30 km spatial resolution, and two temporal seasons. Patterns of risk varied between seasons with higher risk in the northeast, central-east, and western regions of China during spring and summer, and in the central and southeastern regions during winter. Monte-Carlo uncertainty analyses indicated varying levels of model confidence, with lowest errors in the densely populated regions of eastern and southern China. Applications and limitations of the models are discussed within.

Estimating changes in urban land and urban population using refined areal interpolation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoraghein, Hamidreza; Leyk, Stefan

2018-05-01

The analysis of changes in urban land and population is important because the majority of future population growth will take place in urban areas. U.S. Census historically classifies urban land using population density and various land-use criteria. This study analyzes the reliability of census-defined urban lands for delineating the spatial distribution of urban population and estimating its changes over time. To overcome the problem of incompatible enumeration units between censuses, regular areal interpolation methods including Areal Weighting (AW) and Target Density Weighting (TDW), with and without spatial refinement, are implemented. The goal in this study is to estimate urban population in Massachusetts in 1990 and 2000 (source zones), within tract boundaries of the 2010 census (target zones), respectively, to create a consistent time series of comparable urban population estimates from 1990 to 2010. Spatial refinement is done using ancillary variables such as census-defined urban areas, the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) as well as different combinations of them. The study results suggest that census-defined urban areas alone are not necessarily the most meaningful delineation of urban land. Instead, it appears that alternative combinations of the above-mentioned ancillary variables can better depict the spatial distribution of urban land, and thus make it possible to reduce the estimation error in transferring the urban population from source zones to target zones when running spatially-refined temporal areal interpolation.

Changing Urbania: Estimating Changes in Urban Land and Urban Population Using Refined Areal Interpolation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoraghein, H.; Leyk, S.; Balk, D.

2017-12-01

The analysis of changes in urban land and population is important because the majority of future population growth will take place in urban areas. The U.S. Census historically classifies urban land using population density and various land-use criteria. This study analyzes the reliability of census-defined urban lands for delineating the spatial distribution of urban population and estimating its changes over time. To overcome the problem of incompatible enumeration units between censuses, regular areal interpolation methods including Areal Weighting (AW) and Target Density Weighting (TDW), with and without spatial refinement, are implemented. The goal in this study is to estimate urban population in Massachusetts in 1990 and 2000 (source zones), within tract boundaries of the 2010 census (target zones), respectively, to create a consistent time series of comparable urban population estimates from 1990 to 2010. Spatial refinement is done using ancillary variables such as census-defined urban areas, the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) as well as different combinations of them. The study results suggest that census-defined urban areas alone are not necessarily the most meaningful delineation of urban land. Instead it appears that alternative combinations of the above-mentioned ancillary variables can better depict the spatial distribution of urban land, and thus make it possible to reduce the estimation error in transferring the urban population from source zones to target zones when running spatially-refined temporal areal interpolation.

Spatial Analysis of China Province-level Perinatal Mortality

PubMed Central

XIANG, Kun; SONG, Deyong

2016-01-01

Background: Using spatial analysis tools to determine the spatial patterns of China province-level perinatal mortality and using spatial econometric model to examine the impacts of health care resources and different socio-economic factors on perinatal mortality. Methods: The Global Moran’s I index is used to examine whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in selected regions and Moran’s I scatter plot to examine the spatial clustering among regions. Spatial econometric models are used to investigate the spatial relationships between perinatal mortality and contributing factors. Results: The overall Moran’s I index indicates that perinatal mortality displays positive spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I scatter plot analysis implies that there is a significant clustering of mortality in both high-rate regions and low-rate regions. The spatial econometric models analyses confirm the existence of a direct link between perinatal mortality and health care resources, socio-economic factors. Conclusions: Since a positive spatial autocorrelation has been detected in China province-level perinatal mortality, the upgrading of regional economic development and medical service level will affect the mortality not only in region itself but also its adjacent regions. PMID:27398334

Spatial synchrony in cisco recruitment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, Jared T.; Yule, Daniel L.; Jones, Michael L.; Ahrenstorff, Tyler D.; Hrabik, Thomas R.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Ebener, Mark P.; Berglund, Eric K.

2015-01-01

We examined the spatial scale of recruitment variability for disparate cisco (Coregonus artedi) populations in the Great Lakes (n = 8) and Minnesota inland lakes (n = 4). We found that the scale of synchrony was approximately 400 km when all available data were utilized; much greater than the 50-km scale suggested for freshwater fish populations in an earlier global analysis. The presence of recruitment synchrony between Great Lakes and inland lake cisco populations supports the hypothesis that synchronicity is driven by climate and not dispersal. We also found synchrony in larval densities among three Lake Superior populations separated by 25–275 km, which further supports the hypothesis that broad-scale climatic factors are the cause of spatial synchrony. Among several candidate climate variables measured during the period of larval cisco emergence, maximum wind speeds exhibited the most similar spatial scale of synchrony to that observed for cisco. Other factors, such as average water temperatures, exhibited synchrony on broader spatial scales, which suggests they could also be contributing to recruitment synchrony. Our results provide evidence that abiotic factors can induce synchronous patterns of recruitment for populations of cisco inhabiting waters across a broad geographic range, and show that broad-scale synchrony of recruitment can occur in freshwater fish populations as well as those from marine systems.

Spatial Estimation of Populations at Risk from Radiological Dispersion Device Terrorism Incidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Regens, J.L.; Gunter, J.T.

2008-07-01

Delineation of the location and size of the population potentially at risk of exposure to ionizing radiation is one of the key analytical challenges in estimating accurately the severity of the potential health effects associated with a radiological terrorism incident. Regardless of spatial scale, the geographical units for which population data commonly are collected rarely coincide with the geographical scale necessary for effective incident management and medical response. This paper identifies major government and commercial open sources of U.S. population data and presents a GIS-based approach for allocating publicly available population data, including age distributions, to geographical units appropriate formore » planning and implementing incident management and medical response strategies. In summary: The gravity model offers a straight-forward, empirical tool for estimating population flows, especially when geographical areas are relatively well-defined in terms of accessibility and spatial separation. This is particularly important for several reasons. First, the spatial scale for the area impacted by a RDD terrorism event is unlikely to match fully the spatial scale of available population data. That is, the plume spread typically will not uniformly overlay the impacted area. Second, the number of people within the impacted area varies as a function whether an attack occurs during the day or night. For example, the population of a central business district or industrial area typically is larger during the day while predominately residential areas have larger night time populations. As a result, interpolation techniques that link population data to geographical units and allocate those data based on time-frame at a spatial scale that is relevant to enhancing preparedness and response. The gravity model's main advantage is that it efficiently allocates readily available, open source population data to geographical units appropriate for planning and implementing incident management and medical monitoring strategies. The importance of being able to link population estimates to geographic areas during the course of an RDD incident can be understood intuitively: - The spatial distribution of actual total dose equivalents of ionizing radiation is likely to vary due to changes in meteorological parameters as an event evolves over time; - The size of the geographical area affected also is likely to vary as a function of the actual release scenario; - The ability to identify the location and size of the populations that may be exposed to doses of ionizing radiation is critical to carrying out appropriate treatment and post-event medical monitoring; - Once a spatial interaction model has been validated for a city or a region, it can then be used for simulation and prediction purposes to assess the possible human health consequences of different release scenarios. (authors)« less

[Spatial patterns of dominant tree species in sub-alpine Betula-Abies forest in West Sichuan of China].

PubMed

Miao, Ning; Liu, Shi-Rong; Shi, Zuo-Min; Yu, Hong; Liu, Xing-Liang

2009-06-01

Based on the investigation in a 4 hm2 Betula-Abies forest plot in sub-alpine area in West Sichuan of China, and by using point pattern analysis method in terms of O-ring statistics, the spatial patterns of dominant species Betula albo-sinensis and Abies faxoniana in different age classes in study area were analyzed, and the intra- and inter-species associations between these age classes were studied. B. albo-sinensis had a unimodal distribution of its DBH frequency, indicating a declining population, while A. faxoniana had a reverse J-shaped pattern, showing an increasing population. All the big trees of B. albo-sinensis and A. faxoniana were spatially in random at all scales, while the medium age and small trees were spatially clumped at small scales and tended to be randomly or evenly distributed with increasing spatial scale. The maximum aggregation degree decreased with increasing age class. Spatial association mainly occurred at small scales. A. faxoniana generally showed positive intra-specific association, while B. albo-sinensis generally showed negative intra-specific association. For the two populations, big and small trees had no significant spatial association, but middle age trees had negative spatial association. Negative inter-specific associations of the two populations were commonly found in different age classes. The larger the difference of age class, the stronger the negative inter-specific association.

The Ability of Atmospheric Data to Reduce Disagreements in Wetland Methane Flux Estimates over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S. M.; Andrews, A. E.; Benmergui, J. S.; Commane, R.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Melton, J. R.; Michalak, A. M.; Sweeney, C.; Worthy, D. E. J.

2015-12-01

Existing estimates of methane fluxes from wetlands differ in both magnitude and distribution across North America. We discuss seven different bottom-up methane estimates in the context of atmospheric methane data collected across the US and Canada. In the first component of this study, we explore whether the observation network can even detect a methane pattern from wetlands. We find that the observation network can identify a methane pattern from Canadian wetlands but not reliably from US wetlands. Over Canada, the network can even identify spatial patterns at multi-provence scales. Over the US, by contrast, anthropogenic emissions and modeling errors obscure atmospheric patterns from wetland fluxes. In the second component of the study, we then use these observations to reconcile disagreements in the magnitude, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution of existing estimates. Most existing estimates predict fluxes that are too large with a seasonal cycle that is too narrow. A model known as LPJ-Bern has a spatial distribution most consistent with atmospheric observations. By contrast, a spatially-constant model outperforms the distribution of most existing flux estimates across Canada. The results presented here provide several pathways to reduce disagreements among existing wetland flux estimates across North America.

Linking landscape characteristics to local grizzly bear abundance using multiple detection methods in a hierarchical model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, T.A.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Royle, J. Andrew; Stetz, J.B.; Macleod, A.C.

2011-01-01

Few studies link habitat to grizzly bear Ursus arctos abundance and these have not accounted for the variation in detection or spatial autocorrelation. We collected and genotyped bear hair in and around Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana during the summer of 2000. We developed a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo model that extends the existing occupancy and count models by accounting for (1) spatially explicit variables that we hypothesized might influence abundance; (2) separate sub-models of detection probability for two distinct sampling methods (hair traps and rub trees) targeting different segments of the population; (3) covariates to explain variation in each sub-model of detection; (4) a conditional autoregressive term to account for spatial autocorrelation; (5) weights to identify most important variables. Road density and per cent mesic habitat best explained variation in female grizzly bear abundance; spatial autocorrelation was not supported. More female bears were predicted in places with lower road density and with more mesic habitat. Detection rates of females increased with rub tree sampling effort. Road density best explained variation in male grizzly bear abundance and spatial autocorrelation was supported. More male bears were predicted in areas of low road density. Detection rates of males increased with rub tree and hair trap sampling effort and decreased over the sampling period. We provide a new method to (1) incorporate multiple detection methods into hierarchical models of abundance; (2) determine whether spatial autocorrelation should be included in final models. Our results suggest that the influence of landscape variables is consistent between habitat selection and abundance in this system.

Interactive effects of nitrogen addition, warming and invasion across organizational levels in an old-field plant community.

PubMed

Gornish, Elise S

2014-10-08

Response to global change is dependent on the level of biological organization (e.g. the ecologically relevant spatial scale) in which species are embedded. For example, individual responses can affect population-level responses, which, in turn, can affect community-level responses. Although relationships are known to exist among responses to global change across levels of biological organization, formal investigations of these relationships are still uncommon. I conducted an exploratory analysis to identify how nitrogen addition and warming by open top chambers might affect plants across spatial scales by estimating treatment effect size at the leaf level, the plant level and the community level. Moreover, I investigated if the presence of Pityopsis aspera, an experimentally introduced plant species, modified the relationship between spatial scale and effect size across treatments. I found that, overall, the spatial scale significantly contributes to differences in effect size, supporting previous work which suggests that mechanisms driving biotic response to global change are scale dependent. Interestingly, the relationship between spatial scale and effect size in both the absence and presence of experimental invasion is very similar for nitrogen addition and warming treatments. The presence of invasion, however, did not affect the relationship between spatial scale and effect size, suggesting that in this system, invasion may not exacerbate or attenuate climate change effects. This exercise highlights the value of moving beyond integration and scaling to the practice of directly testing for scale effects within single experiments. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL DATA: EVALUATION OF METHODS BASED ON DATA ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program has focused initially on the synthesis of existing data. We have used the same set of spatial data and synthesized these data using a total of 11 existing and newly developed integration methods. These methods were evaluated ...

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear (Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.

Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives.

PubMed

Caparros-Midwood, Daniel; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

2017-11-01

Future development in cities needs to manage increasing populations, climate-related risks, and sustainable development objectives such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Planners therefore face a challenge of multidimensional, spatial optimization in order to balance potential tradeoffs and maximize synergies between risks and other objectives. To address this, a spatial optimization framework has been developed. This uses a spatially implemented genetic algorithm to generate a set of Pareto-optimal results that provide planners with the best set of trade-off spatial plans for six risk and sustainability objectives: (i) minimize heat risks, (ii) minimize flooding risks, (iii) minimize transport travel costs to minimize associated emissions, (iv) maximize brownfield development, (v) minimize urban sprawl, and (vi) prevent development of greenspace. The framework is applied to Greater London (U.K.) and shown to generate spatial development strategies that are optimal for specific objectives and differ significantly from the existing development strategies. In addition, the analysis reveals tradeoffs between different risks as well as between risk and sustainability objectives. While increases in heat or flood risk can be avoided, there are no strategies that do not increase at least one of these. Tradeoffs between risk and other sustainability objectives can be more severe, for example, minimizing heat risk is only possible if future development is allowed to sprawl significantly. The results highlight the importance of spatial structure in modulating risks and other sustainability objectives. However, not all planning objectives are suited to quantified optimization and so the results should form part of an evidence base to improve the delivery of risk and sustainability management in future urban development. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Patterns of population structure for inshore bottlenose dolphins along the eastern United States.

PubMed

Richards, Vincent P; Greig, Thomas W; Fair, Patricia A; McCulloch, Stephen D; Politz, Christine; Natoli, Ada; Driscoll, Carlos A; Hoelzel, A Rus; David, Victor; Bossart, Gregory D; Lopez, Jose V

2013-01-01

Globally distributed, the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is found in a range of offshore and coastal habitats. Using 15 microsatellite loci and mtDNA control region sequences, we investigated patterns of genetic differentiation among putative populations along the eastern US shoreline (the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, and Charleston Harbor, South Carolina) (microsatellite analyses: n = 125, mtDNA analyses: n = 132). We further utilized the mtDNA to compare these populations with those from the Northwest Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. Results showed strong differentiation among inshore, alongshore, and offshore habitats (ФST = 0.744). In addition, Bayesian clustering analyses revealed the presence of 2 genetic clusters (populations) within the 250 km Indian River Lagoon. Habitat heterogeneity is likely an important force diversifying bottlenose dolphin populations through its influence on social behavior and foraging strategy. We propose that the spatial pattern of genetic variation within the lagoon reflects both its steep longitudinal transition of climate and also its historical discontinuity and recent connection as part of Intracoastal Waterway development. These findings have important management implications as they emphasize the role of habitat and the consequence of its modification in shaping bottlenose dolphin population structure and highlight the possibility of multiple management units existing in discrete inshore habitats along the entire eastern US shoreline.

Patterns of Population Structure for Inshore Bottlenose Dolphins along the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Globally distributed, the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is found in a range of offshore and coastal habitats. Using 15 microsatellite loci and mtDNA control region sequences, we investigated patterns of genetic differentiation among putative populations along the eastern US shoreline (the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, and Charleston Harbor, South Carolina) (microsatellite analyses: n = 125, mtDNA analyses: n = 132). We further utilized the mtDNA to compare these populations with those from the Northwest Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. Results showed strong differentiation among inshore, alongshore, and offshore habitats (ФST = 0.744). In addition, Bayesian clustering analyses revealed the presence of 2 genetic clusters (populations) within the 250 km Indian River Lagoon. Habitat heterogeneity is likely an important force diversifying bottlenose dolphin populations through its influence on social behavior and foraging strategy. We propose that the spatial pattern of genetic variation within the lagoon reflects both its steep longitudinal transition of climate and also its historical discontinuity and recent connection as part of Intracoastal Waterway development. These findings have important management implications as they emphasize the role of habitat and the consequence of its modification in shaping bottlenose dolphin population structure and highlight the possibility of multiple management units existing in discrete inshore habitats along the entire eastern US shoreline. PMID:24129993

Prevalence and clustering of soil-transmitted helminth infections in a tribal area in southern India.

PubMed

Kaliappan, Saravanakumar Puthupalayam; George, Santosh; Francis, Mark Rohit; Kattula, Deepthi; Sarkar, Rajiv; Minz, Shantidani; Mohan, Venkata Raghava; George, Kuryan; Roy, Sheela; Ajjampur, Sitara Swarna Rao; Muliyil, Jayaprakash; Kang, Gagandeep

2013-12-01

To estimate the prevalence, spatial patterns and clustering in the distribution of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections, and factors associated with hookworm infections in a tribal population in Tamil Nadu, India. Cross-sectional study with one-stage cluster sampling of 22 clusters. Demographic and risk factor data and stool samples for microscopic ova/cysts examination were collected from 1237 participants. Geographical information systems mapping assessed spatial patterns of infection. The overall prevalence of STH was 39% (95% CI 36%–42%), with hookworm 38% (95% CI 35–41%) and Ascaris lumbricoides 1.5% (95% CI 0.8–2.2%). No Trichuris trichiura infection was detected. People involved in farming had higher odds of hookworm infection (1.68, 95% CI 1.31–2.17, P < 0.001). In the multiple logistic regression, adults (2.31, 95% CI 1.80–2.96, P < 0.001), people with pet cats (1.55, 95% CI 1.10–2.18, P = 0.011) and people who did not wash their hands with soap after defecation (1.84, 95% CI 1.27–2.67, P = 0.001) had higher odds of hookworm infection, but gender and poor usage of foot wear did not significantly increase risk. Cluster analysis, based on design effect calculation, did not show any clustering of cases among the study population; however, spatial scan statistic detected a significant cluster for hookworm infections in one village. Multiple approaches including health education, improving the existing sanitary practices and regular preventive chemotherapy are needed to control the burden of STH in similar endemic areas.

Methods for specifying spatial boundaries of cities in the world: The impacts of delineation methods on city sustainability indices.

PubMed

Uchiyama, Yuta; Mori, Koichiro

2017-08-15

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how different definitions and methods for delineating the spatial boundaries of cities have an impact on the values of city sustainability indicators. It is necessary to distinguish the inside of cities from the outside when calculating the values of sustainability indicators that assess the impacts of human activities within cities on areas beyond their boundaries. For this purpose, spatial boundaries of cities should be practically detected on the basis of a relevant definition of a city. Although no definition of a city is commonly shared among academic fields, three practical methods for identifying urban areas are available in remote sensing science. Those practical methods are based on population density, landcover, and night-time lights. These methods are correlated, but non-negligible differences exist in their determination of urban extents and urban population. Furthermore, critical and statistically significant differences in some urban environmental sustainability indicators result from the three different urban detection methods. For example, the average values of CO 2 emissions per capita and PM 10 concentration in cities with more than 1 million residents are significantly different among the definitions. When analyzing city sustainability indicators and disseminating the implication of the results, the values based on the different definitions should be simultaneously investigated. It is necessary to carefully choose a relevant definition to analyze sustainability indicators for policy making. Otherwise, ineffective and inefficient policies will be developed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phase coupling and synchrony in the spatiotemporal dynamics of muskrat and mink populations across Canada

PubMed Central

Haydon, D. T.; Stenseth, N. C.; Boyce, M. S.; Greenwood, P. E.

2001-01-01

Population ecologists have traditionally focused on the patterns and causes of population variation in the temporal domain for which a substantial body of practical analytic techniques have been developed. More recently, numerous studies have documented how populations may fluctuate synchronously over large spatial areas; analyses of such spatially extended time-series have started to provide additional clues regarding the causes of these population fluctuations and explanations for their synchronous occurrence. Here, we report on the development of a phase-based method for identifying coupling between temporally coincident but spatially distributed cyclic time-series, which we apply to the numbers of muskrat and mink recorded at 81 locations across Canada. The analysis reveals remarkable parallel clines in the strength of coupling between proximate populations of both species—declining from west to east—together with a corresponding increase in observed synchrony between these populations the further east they are located. PMID:11606729

Spatial heterogeneity in human activities favors the persistence of wolves in agroecosystems.

PubMed

Ahmadi, Mohsen; López-Bao, José Vicente; Kaboli, Mohammad

2014-01-01

As human populations expand, there is increasing demand and pressure for land. Under this scenario, behavioural flexibility and adaptation become important processes leading to the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes such as agroecosystems. A growing interest has recently emerged on the outcome of the coexistence between wolves and humans in these systems. It has been suggested that spatial heterogeneity in human activities would be a major environmental factor modulating vulnerability and persistence of this contentious species in agroecosystems. Here, we combined information from 35 den sites detected between 2011 and 2012 in agroecosystems of western Iran (Hamedan province), a set of environmental variables measured at landscape and fine spatial scales, and generalized linear models to identify patterns of den site selection by wolves in a highly-modified agroecosystem. On a landscape level, wolves selected a mixture of rangelands with scattered dry-farms on hillsides (showing a low human use) to locate their dens, avoiding areas with high densities of settlements and primary roads. On a fine spatial scale, wolves primarily excavated dens into the sides of elevated steep-slope hills with availability of water bodies in the vicinity of den sites, and wolves were relegated to dig in places with coarse-soil particles. Our results suggest that vulnerability of wolves in human-dominated landscapes could be compensated by the existence of spatial heterogeneity in human activities. Such heterogeneity would favor wolf persistence in agroecosystems favoring a land sharing model of coexistence between wolves and people.

Spatial Heterogeneity in Human Activities Favors the Persistence of Wolves in Agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Ahmadi, Mohsen; López-Bao, José Vicente; Kaboli, Mohammad

2014-01-01

As human populations expand, there is increasing demand and pressure for land. Under this scenario, behavioural flexibility and adaptation become important processes leading to the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes such as agroecosystems. A growing interest has recently emerged on the outcome of the coexistence between wolves and humans in these systems. It has been suggested that spatial heterogeneity in human activities would be a major environmental factor modulating vulnerability and persistence of this contentious species in agroecosystems. Here, we combined information from 35 den sites detected between 2011 and 2012 in agroecosystems of western Iran (Hamedan province), a set of environmental variables measured at landscape and fine spatial scales, and generalized linear models to identify patterns of den site selection by wolves in a highly-modified agroecosystem. On a landscape level, wolves selected a mixture of rangelands with scattered dry-farms on hillsides (showing a low human use) to locate their dens, avoiding areas with high densities of settlements and primary roads. On a fine spatial scale, wolves primarily excavated dens into the sides of elevated steep-slope hills with availability of water bodies in the vicinity of den sites, and wolves were relegated to dig in places with coarse-soil particles. Our results suggest that vulnerability of wolves in human-dominated landscapes could be compensated by the existence of spatial heterogeneity in human activities. Such heterogeneity would favor wolf persistence in agroecosystems favoring a land sharing model of coexistence between wolves and people. PMID:25251567

Connecting the Dots Between Health, Poverty and Place in Accra, Ghana

PubMed Central

Weeks, John R.; Getis, Arthur; Stow, Douglas A.; Hill, Allan G.; Rain, David; Engstrom, Ryan; Stoler, Justin; Lippitt, Christopher; Jankowska, Marta; Lopez-Carr, Anna Carla; Coulter, Lloyd; Ofiesh, Caetlin

2013-01-01

West Africa has a rapidly growing population, an increasing fraction of which lives in urban informal settlements characterized by inadequate infrastructure and relatively high health risks. Little is known, however, about the spatial or health characteristics of cities in this region or about the spatial inequalities in health within them. In this article we show how we have been creating a data-rich field laboratory in Accra, Ghana, to connect the dots between health, poverty, and place in a large city in West Africa. Our overarching goal is to test the hypothesis that satellite imagery, in combination with census and limited survey data, such as that found in demographic and health surveys (DHSs), can provide clues to the spatial distribution of health inequalities in cities where fewer data exist than those we have collected for Accra. To this end, we have created the first digital boundary file of the city, obtained high spatial resolution satellite imagery for two dates, collected data from a longitudinal panel of 3,200 women spatially distributed throughout Accra, and obtained microlevel data from the census. We have also acquired water, sewerage, and elevation layers and then coupled all of these data with extensive field research on the neighborhood structure of Accra. We show that the proportional abundance of vegetation in a neighborhood serves as a key indicator of local levels of health and well-being and that local perceptions of health risk are not always consistent with objective measures. PMID:24532846

Small-Area Estimation of Spatial Access to Care and Its Implications for Policy.

PubMed

Gentili, Monica; Isett, Kim; Serban, Nicoleta; Swann, Julie

2015-10-01

Local or small-area estimates to capture emerging trends across large geographic regions are critical in identifying and addressing community-level health interventions. However, they are often unavailable due to lack of analytic capabilities in compiling and integrating extensive datasets and complementing them with the knowledge about variations in state-level health policies. This study introduces a modeling approach for small-area estimation of spatial access to pediatric primary care that is data "rich" and mathematically rigorous, integrating data and health policy in a systematic way. We illustrate the sensitivity of the model to policy decision making across large geographic regions by performing a systematic comparison of the estimates at the census tract and county levels for Georgia and California. Our results show the proposed approach is able to overcome limitations of other existing models by capturing patient and provider preferences and by incorporating possible changes in health policies. The primary finding is systematic underestimation of spatial access, and inaccurate estimates of disparities across population and across geography at the county level with respect to those at the census tract level with implications on where to focus and which type of interventions to consider.

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mikle, Nathaniel; Graves, Tabitha A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Macleod, Amy C.

2016-01-01

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

PubMed Central

Kovach, Ryan; Kendall, Katherine C.; Macleod, Amy C.

2016-01-01

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral. PMID:27655768

sGD: software for estimating spatially explicit indices of genetic diversity.

PubMed

Shirk, A J; Cushman, S A

2011-09-01

Anthropogenic landscape changes have greatly reduced the population size, range and migration rates of many terrestrial species. The small local effective population size of remnant populations favours loss of genetic diversity leading to reduced fitness and adaptive potential, and thus ultimately greater extinction risk. Accurately quantifying genetic diversity is therefore crucial to assessing the viability of small populations. Diversity indices are typically calculated from the multilocus genotypes of all individuals sampled within discretely defined habitat patches or larger regional extents. Importantly, discrete population approaches do not capture the clinal nature of populations genetically isolated by distance or landscape resistance. Here, we introduce spatial Genetic Diversity (sGD), a new spatially explicit tool to estimate genetic diversity based on grouping individuals into potentially overlapping genetic neighbourhoods that match the population structure, whether discrete or clinal. We compared the estimates and patterns of genetic diversity using patch or regional sampling and sGD on both simulated and empirical populations. When the population did not meet the assumptions of an island model, we found that patch and regional sampling generally overestimated local heterozygosity, inbreeding and allelic diversity. Moreover, sGD revealed fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in genetic diversity that was not evident with patch or regional sampling. These advantages should provide a more robust means to evaluate the potential for genetic factors to influence the viability of clinal populations and guide appropriate conservation plans. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The association between polyploidy and clonal reproduction in diploid and tetraploid Chamerion angustifolium.

PubMed

Baldwin, Sarah J; Husband, Brian C

2013-04-01

Clonal reproduction is associated with the incidence of polyploidy in flowering plants. This pattern may arise through selection for increased clonality in polyploids compared to diploids to reduce mixed-ploidy mating. Here, we test whether clonal reproduction is greater in tetraploid than diploid populations of the mixed-ploidy plant, Chamerion angustifolium, through an analysis of the size and spatial distribution of clones in natural populations using AFLP genotyping and a comparison of root bud production in a greenhouse study. Natural tetraploid populations (N = 5) had significantly more AFLP genotypes (x¯ = 10.8) than diploid populations (x¯ = 6.0). Tetraploid populations tended to have fewer ramets per genotype and fewer genotypes with >1 ramet. In a spatial autocorrelation analysis, ramets within genotypes were more spatially aggregated in diploid populations than in tetraploid populations. In the greenhouse, tetraploids allocated 90.4% more dry mass to root buds than diploids, but tetraploids produced no more root buds and 44% fewer root buds per unit root mass than diploids. Our results indicate that clonal reproduction is significant in most populations, but tetraploid populations are not more clonal than diploids, nor are their clones more spatially aggregated. As a result, tetraploids may be less sheltered from mixed-ploidy mating and diploids more exposed to inbreeding, the balance of which could influence the establishment of tetraploids in diploid populations. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

What can we learn from resource pulses?

PubMed

Yang, Louie H; Bastow, Justin L; Spence, Kenneth O; Wright, Amber N

2008-03-01

An increasing number of studies in a wide range of natural systems have investigated how pulses of resource availability influence ecological processes at individual, population, and community levels. Taken together, these studies suggest that some common processes may underlie pulsed resource dynamics in a wide diversity of systems. Developing a common framework of terms and concepts for the study of resource pulses may facilitate greater synthesis among these apparently disparate systems. Here, we propose a general definition of the resource pulse concept, outline some common patterns in the causes and consequences of resource pulses, and suggest a few key questions for future investigations. We define resource pulses as episodes of increased resource availability in space and time that combine low frequency (rarity), large magnitude (intensity), and short duration (brevity), and emphasize the importance of considering resource pulses at spatial and temporal scales relevant to specific resource-onsumer interactions. Although resource pulses are uncommon events for consumers in specific systems, our review of the existing literature suggests that pulsed resource dynamics are actually widespread phenomena in nature. Resource pulses often result from climatic and environmental factors, processes of spatiotemporal accumulation and release, outbreak population dynamics, or a combination of these factors. These events can affect life history traits and behavior at the level of individual consumers, numerical responses at the population level, and indirect effects at the community level. Consumers show strategies for utilizing ephemeral resources opportunistically, reducing resource variability by averaging over larger spatial scales, and tolerating extended interpulse periods of reduced resource availability. Resource pulses can also create persistent effects in communities through several mechanisms. We suggest that the study of resource pulses provides opportunities to understand the dynamics of many specific systems, and may also contribute to broader ecological questions at individual, population, and community levels.

Geographic information systems (GIS): an emerging method to assess demand and provision for rehabilitation services.

PubMed

Passalent, Laura; Borsy, Emily; Landry, Michel D; Cott, Cheryl

2013-09-01

To illustrate the application of geographic information systems (GIS) as a tool to assess rehabilitation service delivery by presenting results from research recently conducted to assess demand and provision for community rehabilitation service delivery in Ontario, Canada. Secondary analysis of data obtained from existing sources was used to establish demand and provision profiles for community rehabilitation services. These data were integrated using GIS software. A number of descriptive maps were produced that show the geographical distribution of service provision variables (location of individual rehabilitation health care providers and location of private and publicly funded community rehabilitation clinics) in relation to the distribution of demand variables (location of the general population; location of specific populations (i.e., residents age 65 and older) and distribution of household income). GIS provides a set of tools for describing and understanding the spatial organization of the health of populations and the distribution of health services that can aid the development of health policy and answer key research questions with respect to rehabilitation health services delivery. Implications for Rehabilitation It is important to seek out alternative and innovative methods to examine rehabilitation service delivery. GIS is a computer-based program that takes any data linked to a geographically referenced location and processes it through a software system that manages, analyses and displays the data in the form of a map, allowing for an alternative level of analysis. GIS provides a set of tools for describing and understanding the spatial organization of population health and health services that can aid the development of health policy and answer key research questions with respect to rehabilitation health services delivery.

Asymptotic proportionality (weak ergodicity) and conditional asymptotic equality of solutions to time-heterogeneous sublinear difference and differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thieme, Horst R.

The concept of asymptotic proportionality and conditional asymptotic equality which is presented here aims at making global asymptotic stability statements for time-heterogeneous difference and differential equations. For such non-autonomous problems (apart from special cases) no prominent special solutions (equilibra, periodic solutions) exist which are natural candidates for the asymptotic behaviour of arbitrary solutions. One way out of this dilemma consists in looking for conditions under which any two solutions to the problem (with different initial conditions) behave in a similar or even the same way as time tends to infinity. We study a general sublinear difference equation in an ordered Banach space and, for illustration, time-heterogeneous versions of several well-known differential equations modelling the spread of gonorrhea in a heterogeneous population, the spread of a vector-borne infectious disease, and the dynamics of a logistically growing spatially diffusing population.

Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.

PubMed

Ross, Michelle; Wakefield, Jon

2015-10-01

Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata. The efficiency gains of the two-phase sampling scheme are compared to standard approaches using 2011 birth data from the research triangle area of North Carolina. We show that the proposed method can overcome small sample difficulties and improve on existing techniques. We conclude that the two-phase design is an attractive approach for small area estimation.

Costly Advertising and the Evolution of Cooperation

PubMed Central

Brede, Markus

2013-01-01

In this paper, I investigate the co-evolution of fast and slow strategy spread and game strategies in populations of spatially distributed agents engaged in a one off evolutionary dilemma game. Agents are characterized by a pair of traits, a game strategy (cooperate or defect) and a binary ‘advertising’ strategy (advertise or don’t advertise). Advertising, which comes at a cost , allows investment into faster propagation of the agents’ traits to adjacent individuals. Importantly, game strategy and advertising strategy are subject to the same evolutionary mechanism. Via analytical reasoning and numerical simulations I demonstrate that a range of advertising costs exists, such that the prevalence of cooperation is significantly enhanced through co-evolution. Linking costly replication to the success of cooperators exposes a novel co-evolutionary mechanism that might contribute towards a better understanding of the origins of cooperation-supporting heterogeneity in agent populations. PMID:23861752

Costly advertising and the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Brede, Markus

2013-01-01

In this paper, I investigate the co-evolution of fast and slow strategy spread and game strategies in populations of spatially distributed agents engaged in a one off evolutionary dilemma game. Agents are characterized by a pair of traits, a game strategy (cooperate or defect) and a binary 'advertising' strategy (advertise or don't advertise). Advertising, which comes at a cost [Formula: see text], allows investment into faster propagation of the agents' traits to adjacent individuals. Importantly, game strategy and advertising strategy are subject to the same evolutionary mechanism. Via analytical reasoning and numerical simulations I demonstrate that a range of advertising costs exists, such that the prevalence of cooperation is significantly enhanced through co-evolution. Linking costly replication to the success of cooperators exposes a novel co-evolutionary mechanism that might contribute towards a better understanding of the origins of cooperation-supporting heterogeneity in agent populations.

Influence of landscape-scale factors in limiting brook trout populations in Pennsylvania streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kocovsky, P.M.; Carline, R.F.

2006-01-01

Landscapes influence the capacity of streams to produce trout through their effect on water chemistry and other factors at the reach scale. Trout abundance also fluctuates over time; thus, to thoroughly understand how spatial factors at landscape scales affect trout populations, one must assess the changes in populations over time to provide a context for interpreting the importance of spatial factors. We used data from the Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission's fisheries management database to investigate spatial factors that affect the capacity of streams to support brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and to provide models useful for their management. We assessed the relative importance of spatial and temporal variation by calculating variance components and comparing relative standard errors for spatial and temporal variation. We used binary logistic regression to predict the presence of harvestable-length brook trout and multiple linear regression to assess the mechanistic links between landscapes and trout populations and to predict population density. The variance in trout density among streams was equal to or greater than the temporal variation for several streams, indicating that differences among sites affect population density. Logistic regression models correctly predicted the absence of harvestable-length brook trout in 60% of validation samples. The r 2-value for the linear regression model predicting density was 0.3, indicating low predictive ability. Both logistic and linear regression models supported buffering capacity against acid episodes as an important mechanistic link between landscapes and trout populations. Although our models fail to predict trout densities precisely, their success at elucidating the mechanistic links between landscapes and trout populations, in concert with the importance of spatial variation, increases our understanding of factors affecting brook trout abundance and will help managers and private groups to protect and enhance populations of wild brook trout. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns.

PubMed

Norred, S Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M; Chauhan, Gaurav; Collier, Lauren K; Collier, C Patrick; Abel, Steven M; Simpson, Michael L

2018-05-18

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting-the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increase in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA ("spatial noise") that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. These results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.

Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, Walter D.; Liebhold, Andrew M.

2016-06-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony--the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape--despite the importance of environmental synchrony as a driver of population trends and the central role of environmental variability in population rescue and extinction. Here we demonstrate that across North America, spatial synchrony of a significant proportion of 49 widespread North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years--the period encompassing particularly intense anthropogenic effects in climate--paralleling significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature. These results suggest the potential for increased spatial synchrony in environmental factors to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena. These effects are likely to vary, but for North American wildlife species, increased spatial synchrony driven by environmental factors may be the basis for a previously unrecognized threat to their long-term persistence in the form of more synchronized population dynamics reducing the potential for demographic rescue among interacting subpopulations.

Population connectivity and the effectiveness of marine protected areas to protect vulnerable, exploited and endemic coral reef fishes at an endemic hotspot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Meer, M. H.; Berumen, M. L.; Hobbs, J.-P. A.; van Herwerden, L.

2015-06-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) aim to mitigate anthropogenic impacts by conserving biodiversity and preventing overfishing. The effectiveness of MPAs depends on population connectivity patterns between protected and non-protected areas. Remote islands are endemism hotspots for coral reef fishes and provide rare examples of coral reefs with limited fishing pressure. This study explored population genetic connectivity across a network of protected and non-protected areas for the endemic wrasse, Coris bulbifrons, which is listed as "vulnerable" by the IUCN due to its small, decreasing geographic range and declining abundance. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite DNA (msatDNA) markers were used to estimate historic and contemporary gene flow to determine the level of population self-replenishment and to measure genetic and genotypic diversity among all four locations in the species range (south-west Pacific Ocean)—Middleton Reef (MR), Elizabeth Reef (ER), Lord Howe Island (LHI) and Norfolk Island (NI). MPAs exist at MR and LHI and are limited or non-existent at ER and NI, respectively. There was no obvious differentiation in mtDNA among locations, however, msatDNA revealed differentiation between the most peripheral (NI) and all remaining locations (MR, ER and LHI). Despite high mtDNA connectivity ( M = 259-1,144), msatDNA connectivity was limited ( M = 3-9) with high self-replenishment (68-93 %) at all locations. NI is the least connected and heavily reliant on self-replenishment, and the absence of MPAs at NI needs to be rectified to ensure the persistence of endemic species at this location. Other endemic fishes exhibit similar patterns of high self-replenishment across the four locations, indicating that a single spatial management approach consisting of a MPA network protecting part of each location could provide reasonable protection for these species. Thus, the existing network of MPAs at this endemic hotspot appears adequate at some locations, but not at all.

Parasitism alters three power laws of scaling in a metazoan community: Taylor’s law, density-mass allometry, and variance-mass allometry

PubMed Central

Lagrue, Clément; Poulin, Robert; Cohen, Joel E.

2015-01-01

How do the lifestyles (free-living unparasitized, free-living parasitized, and parasitic) of animal species affect major ecological power-law relationships? We investigated this question in metazoan communities in lakes of Otago, New Zealand. In 13,752 samples comprising 1,037,058 organisms, we found that species of different lifestyles differed in taxonomic distribution and body mass and were well described by three power laws: a spatial Taylor’s law (the spatial variance in population density was a power-law function of the spatial mean population density); density-mass allometry (the spatial mean population density was a power-law function of mean body mass); and variance-mass allometry (the spatial variance in population density was a power-law function of mean body mass). To our knowledge, this constitutes the first empirical confirmation of variance-mass allometry for any animal community. We found that the parameter values of all three relationships differed for species with different lifestyles in the same communities. Taylor's law and density-mass allometry accurately predicted the form and parameter values of variance-mass allometry. We conclude that species of different lifestyles in these metazoan communities obeyed the same major ecological power-law relationships but did so with parameters specific to each lifestyle, probably reflecting differences among lifestyles in population dynamics and spatial distribution. PMID:25550506

Parasitism alters three power laws of scaling in a metazoan community: Taylor's law, density-mass allometry, and variance-mass allometry.

PubMed

Lagrue, Clément; Poulin, Robert; Cohen, Joel E

2015-02-10

How do the lifestyles (free-living unparasitized, free-living parasitized, and parasitic) of animal species affect major ecological power-law relationships? We investigated this question in metazoan communities in lakes of Otago, New Zealand. In 13,752 samples comprising 1,037,058 organisms, we found that species of different lifestyles differed in taxonomic distribution and body mass and were well described by three power laws: a spatial Taylor's law (the spatial variance in population density was a power-law function of the spatial mean population density); density-mass allometry (the spatial mean population density was a power-law function of mean body mass); and variance-mass allometry (the spatial variance in population density was a power-law function of mean body mass). To our knowledge, this constitutes the first empirical confirmation of variance-mass allometry for any animal community. We found that the parameter values of all three relationships differed for species with different lifestyles in the same communities. Taylor's law and density-mass allometry accurately predicted the form and parameter values of variance-mass allometry. We conclude that species of different lifestyles in these metazoan communities obeyed the same major ecological power-law relationships but did so with parameters specific to each lifestyle, probably reflecting differences among lifestyles in population dynamics and spatial distribution.

FIND: difFerential chromatin INteractions Detection using a spatial Poisson process

PubMed Central

Chen, Yang; Zhang, Michael Q.

2018-01-01

Polymer-based simulations and experimental studies indicate the existence of a spatial dependency between the adjacent DNA fibers involved in the formation of chromatin loops. However, the existing strategies for detecting differential chromatin interactions assume that the interacting segments are spatially independent from the other segments nearby. To resolve this issue, we developed a new computational method, FIND, which considers the local spatial dependency between interacting loci. FIND uses a spatial Poisson process to detect differential chromatin interactions that show a significant difference in their interaction frequency and the interaction frequency of their neighbors. Simulation and biological data analysis show that FIND outperforms the widely used count-based methods and has a better signal-to-noise ratio. PMID:29440282

Quantifying cross-border movements and migrations for guiding the strategic planning of malaria control and elimination

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Identifying human and malaria parasite movements is important for control planning across all transmission intensities. Imported infections can reintroduce infections into areas previously free of infection, maintain ‘hotspots’ of transmission and import drug resistant strains, challenging national control programmes at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Recent analyses based on mobile phone usage data have provided valuable insights into population and likely parasite movements within countries, but these data are restricted to sub-national analyses, leaving important cross-border movements neglected. Methods National census data were used to analyse and model cross-border migration and movement, using East Africa as an example. ‘Hotspots’ of origin-specific immigrants from neighbouring countries were identified for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Populations of origin-specific migrants were compared to distance from origin country borders and population size at destination, and regression models were developed to quantify and compare differences in migration patterns. Migration data were then combined with existing spatially-referenced malaria data to compare the relative propensity for cross-border malaria movement in the region. Results The spatial patterns and processes for immigration were different between each origin and destination country pair. Hotspots of immigration, for example, were concentrated close to origin country borders for most immigrants to Tanzania, but for Kenya, a similar pattern was only seen for Tanzanian and Ugandan immigrants. Regression model fits also differed between specific migrant groups, with some migration patterns more dependent on population size at destination and distance travelled than others. With these differences between immigration patterns and processes, and heterogeneous transmission risk in East Africa and the surrounding region, propensities to import malaria infections also likely show substantial variations. Conclusion This was a first attempt to quantify and model cross-border movements relevant to malaria transmission and control. With national census available worldwide, this approach can be translated to construct a cross-border human and malaria movement evidence base for other malaria endemic countries. The outcomes of this study will feed into wider efforts to quantify and model human and malaria movements in endemic regions to facilitate improved intervention planning, resource allocation and collaborative policy decisions. PMID:24886389

Modeling spatial accessibility to parks: a national study.

PubMed

Zhang, Xingyou; Lu, Hua; Holt, James B

2011-05-09

Parks provide ideal open spaces for leisure-time physical activity and important venues to promote physical activity. The spatial configuration of parks, the number of parks and their spatial distribution across neighborhood areas or local regions, represents the basic park access potential for their residential populations. A new measure of spatial access to parks, population-weighted distance (PWD) to parks, combines the advantages of current park access approaches and incorporates the information processing theory and probability access surface model to more accurately quantify residential population's potential spatial access to parks. The PWD was constructed at the basic level of US census geography - blocks - using US park and population data. This new measure of population park accessibility was aggregated to census tract, county, state and national levels. On average, US residential populations are expected to travel 6.7 miles to access their local neighborhood parks. There are significant differences in the PWD to local parks among states. The District of Columbia and Connecticut have the best access to local neighborhood parks with PWD of 0.6 miles and 1.8 miles, respectively. Alaska, Montana, and Wyoming have the largest PWDs of 62.0, 37.4, and 32.8 miles, respectively. Rural states in the western and Midwestern US have lower neighborhood park access, while urban states have relatively higher park access. The PWD to parks provides a consistent platform for evaluating spatial equity of park access and linking with population health outcomes. It could be an informative evaluation tool for health professionals and policy makers. This new method could be applied to quantify geographic accessibility of other types of services or destinations, such as food, alcohol, and tobacco outlets.

A metapopulation approach to African lion (Panthera leo) conservation.

PubMed

Dolrenry, Stephanie; Stenglein, Jennifer; Hazzah, Leela; Lutz, R Scott; Frank, Laurence

2014-01-01

Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts.

A Metapopulation Approach to African Lion (Panthera leo) Conservation

PubMed Central

Dolrenry, Stephanie; Stenglein, Jennifer; Hazzah, Leela; Lutz, R. Scott; Frank, Laurence

2014-01-01

Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts. PMID:24505385

Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India.

PubMed

Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E; Wood, Thomas C; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

2013-09-22

Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura-Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km(2) landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration-drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors.

Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E.; Wood, Thomas C.; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

2013-01-01

Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura–Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km2 landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration–drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors. PMID:23902910

Local Competition and Metapopulation Processes Drive Long-Term Seagrass-Epiphyte Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J.; Cook, Kevan J.; Bull, James C.

2013-01-01

It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test some of the predictions of ecological theory in a natural ecosystem of global conservation and economic value. PMID:23437313

Stage-dependent responses to emergent habitat heterogeneity: consequences for a predatory insect population in a coffee agroecosystem.

PubMed

Liere, Heidi; Perfecto, Ivette; Vandermeer, John

2014-08-01

Interactions among members of biological communities can create spatial patterns that effectively generate habitat heterogeneity for other members in the community, and this heterogeneity might be crucial for their persistence. For example, stage-dependent vulnerability of a predatory lady beetle to aggression of the ant, Azteca instabilis, creates two habitat types that are utilized differently by the immature and adult life stages of the beetle. Due to a mutualistic association between A. instabilis and the hemipteran Coccus viridis - which is A. orbigera main prey in the area - only plants around ant nests have high C. viridis populations. Here, we report on a series of surveys at three different scales aimed at detecting how the presence and clustered distribution of ant nests affect the distribution of the different life stages of this predatory lady beetle in a coffee farm in Chiapas, Mexico. Both beetle adults and larvae were more abundant in areas with ant nests, but adults were restricted to the peripheries of highest ant activity and outside the reach of coffee bushes containing the highest densities of lady beetle larvae. The abundance of adult beetles located around trees with ants increased with the size of the ant nest clusters but the relationship is not significant for larvae. Thus, we suggest that A. orbigera undergoes an ontogenetic niche shift, not through shifting prey species, but through stage-specific vulnerability differences against a competitor that renders areas of abundant prey populations inaccessible for adults but not for larvae. Together with evidence presented elsewhere, this study shows how an important predator is not only dependent on the existence of two qualitatively distinct habitat types, but also on the spatial distribution of these habitats. We suggest that this dependency arises due to the different responses that the predator's life stages have to this emergent spatial pattern.

Stage-dependent responses to emergent habitat heterogeneity: consequences for a predatory insect population in a coffee agroecosystem

PubMed Central

Liere, Heidi; Perfecto, Ivette; Vandermeer, John

2014-01-01

Interactions among members of biological communities can create spatial patterns that effectively generate habitat heterogeneity for other members in the community, and this heterogeneity might be crucial for their persistence. For example, stage-dependent vulnerability of a predatory lady beetle to aggression of the ant, Azteca instabilis, creates two habitat types that are utilized differently by the immature and adult life stages of the beetle. Due to a mutualistic association between A. instabilis and the hemipteran Coccus viridis – which is A. orbigera main prey in the area – only plants around ant nests have high C. viridis populations. Here, we report on a series of surveys at three different scales aimed at detecting how the presence and clustered distribution of ant nests affect the distribution of the different life stages of this predatory lady beetle in a coffee farm in Chiapas, Mexico. Both beetle adults and larvae were more abundant in areas with ant nests, but adults were restricted to the peripheries of highest ant activity and outside the reach of coffee bushes containing the highest densities of lady beetle larvae. The abundance of adult beetles located around trees with ants increased with the size of the ant nest clusters but the relationship is not significant for larvae. Thus, we suggest that A. orbigera undergoes an ontogenetic niche shift, not through shifting prey species, but through stage-specific vulnerability differences against a competitor that renders areas of abundant prey populations inaccessible for adults but not for larvae. Together with evidence presented elsewhere, this study shows how an important predator is not only dependent on the existence of two qualitatively distinct habitat types, but also on the spatial distribution of these habitats. We suggest that this dependency arises due to the different responses that the predator's life stages have to this emergent spatial pattern. PMID:25473473

Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics.

PubMed

Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

2013-01-01

It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test some of the predictions of ecological theory in a natural ecosystem of global conservation and economic value.

A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurini, Márcio Poletti

2017-10-01

We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

Differential shift in spatial bias over time depends on observers׳ initial bias: Observer subtypes, or regression to the mean?

PubMed

Newman, Daniel P; Loughnane, Gerard M; Abe, Rafael; Zoratti, Marco T R; Martins, Ana C P; van den Bogert, Petra C; Kelly, Simon P; O'Connell, Redmond G; Bellgrove, Mark A

2014-11-01

Healthy subjects typically exhibit a subtle bias of visuospatial attention favouring left space that is commonly termed 'pseudoneglect'. This bias is attenuated, or shifted rightwards, with decreasing alertness over time, consistent with theoretical models proposing that pseudoneglect is a result of the right hemisphere׳s dominance in regulating attention. Although this 'time-on-task effect' for spatial bias is observed when averaging across whole samples of healthy participants, Benwell, C. S. Y., Thut, G., Learmonth, G., & Harvey, M. (2013b). Spatial attention: differential shifts in pseudoneglect direction with time-on-task and initial bias support the idea of observer subtypes. Neuropsychologia, 51(13), 2747-2756 recently presented evidence that the direction and magnitude of bias exhibited by the participant early in the task (left biased, no bias, or right biased) were stable traits that predicted the direction of the subsequent time-on-task shift in spatial bias. That is, the spatial bias of participants who were initially left biased shifted in a rightward direction with time, whereas that of participants who were initially right biased shifted in a leftward direction. If valid, the data of Benwell et al. are potentially important and may demand a re-evaluation of current models of the neural networks governing spatial attention. Here we use two novel spatial attention tasks in an attempt to confirm the results of Benwell et al. We show that rather than being indicative of true participant subtypes, these data patterns are likely driven, at least in part, by 'regression towards the mean' arising from the analysis method employed. Although evidence supports the contention that trait-like individual differences in spatial bias exist within the healthy population, no clear evidence is yet available for participant/observer subtypes in the direction of time-on-task shift in spatial biases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial Lattice Modulation for MIMO Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jiwook; Nam, Yunseo; Lee, Namyoon

2018-06-01

This paper proposes spatial lattice modulation (SLM), a spatial modulation method for multipleinput-multiple-output (MIMO) systems. The key idea of SLM is to jointly exploit spatial, in-phase, and quadrature dimensions to modulate information bits into a multi-dimensional signal set that consists oflattice points. One major finding is that SLM achieves a higher spectral efficiency than the existing spatial modulation and spatial multiplexing methods for the MIMO channel under the constraint ofM-ary pulseamplitude-modulation (PAM) input signaling per dimension. In particular, it is shown that when the SLM signal set is constructed by using dense lattices, a significant signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) gain, i.e., a nominal coding gain, is attainable compared to the existing methods. In addition, closed-form expressions for both the average mutual information and average symbol-vector-error-probability (ASVEP) of generic SLM are derived under Rayleigh-fading environments. To reduce detection complexity, a low-complexity detection method for SLM, which is referred to as lattice sphere decoding, is developed by exploiting lattice theory. Simulation results verify the accuracy of the conducted analysis and demonstrate that the proposed SLM techniques achieve higher average mutual information and lower ASVEP than do existing methods.

First Gridded Spatial Field Reconstructions of Snow from Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coulthard, B. L.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Pederson, G. T.; Alder, J. R.; Hostetler, S. W.; Gray, S. T.

2017-12-01

Western North America's mountain snowpacks provide critical water resources for human populations and ecosystems. Warmer temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will increasingly alter the quantity, extent, and persistence of snow in coming decades. A comprehensive understanding of the causes and range of long-term variability in this system is required for forecasting future anomalies, but snowpack observations are limited and sparse. While individual tree ring-based annual snowpack reconstructions have been developed for specific regions and mountain ranges, we present here the first collection of spatially-explicit gridded field reconstructions of seasonal snowpack within the American Rocky Mountains. Capitalizing on a new western North American snow-sensitive network of over 700 tree-ring chronologies, as well as recent advances in PRISM-based snow modeling, our gridded reconstructions offer a full space-time characterization of snow and associated water resource fluctuations over several centuries. The quality of reconstructions is evaluated against existing observations, proxy-records, and an independently-developed first-order monthly snow model.

Rich do not rise early: spatio-temporal patterns in the mobility networks of different socio-economic classes

PubMed Central

Hurtado, Rafael G.; Floría, Luis Mario

2016-01-01

We analyse the urban mobility in the cities of Medellín and Manizales (Colombia). Each city is represented by six mobility networks, each one encoding the origin-destination trips performed by a subset of the population corresponding to a particular socio-economic status. The nodes of each network are the different urban locations whereas links account for the existence of a trip between two different areas of the city. We study the main structural properties of these mobility networks by focusing on their spatio-temporal patterns. Our goal is to relate these patterns with the partition into six socio-economic compartments of these two societies. Our results show that spatial and temporal patterns vary across these socio-economic groups. In particular, the two datasets show that as wealth increases the early-morning activity is delayed, the midday peak becomes smoother and the spatial distribution of trips becomes more localized. PMID:27853531

Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belik, Vitaly; Geisel, Theo; Brockmann, Dirk

2011-08-01

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bidirectional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic front and find that, in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a saturation of the velocity with an increasing traveling rate. Furthermore, we show that a fully stochastic system exhibits a novel threshold for the attack ratio of an outbreak that is absent in diffusion and force of infection models. These insights not only capture natural features of human mobility relevant for the geographical epidemic spread, they may serve as a starting point for modeling important dynamical processes in human and animal epidemiology, population ecology, biology, and evolution.

Single-cell Hi-C bridges microscopy and genome-wide sequencing approaches to study 3D chromatin organization.

PubMed

Ulianov, Sergey V; Tachibana-Konwalski, Kikue; Razin, Sergey V

2017-10-01

Recent years have witnessed an explosion of the single-cell biochemical toolbox including chromosome conformation capture (3C)-based methods that provide novel insights into chromatin spatial organization in individual cells. The observations made with these techniques revealed that topologically associating domains emerge from cell population averages and do not exist as static structures in individual cells. Stochastic nature of the genome folding is likely to be biologically relevant and may reflect the ability of chromatin fibers to adopt a number of alternative configurations, some of which could be transiently stabilized and serve regulatory purposes. Single-cell Hi-C approaches provide an opportunity to analyze chromatin folding in rare cell types such as stem cells, tumor progenitors, oocytes, and totipotent cells, contributing to a deeper understanding of basic mechanisms in development and disease. Here, we review key findings of single-cell Hi-C and discuss possible biological reasons and consequences of the inferred dynamic chromatin spatial organization. © 2017 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Different spatial distributions of sodium channels in the slowly and rapidly adapting stretch receptor neuron of the crayfish.

PubMed

Lin, J H; Rydqvist, B

1999-06-05

Inward Na+ currents were studied, using a two-microelectrode intracellular voltage-clamp technique, in the slowly adapting (SA) and rapidly adapting (RA) stretch receptor neurons of the crayfish after the axons were cut at different distances from the soma. In the SA neuron, inward Na+ currents were recorded in the soma even when the axon was cut as close as 100 microm from the center of the soma, indicating the presence of Na+ channels in these parts. Also, two populations of Na+ channels seem to exist in the SA neuron. In the RA neuron, only minute Na+ currents were observed if the axon was shorter than 250 microm. The results strongly indicate that the voltage-gated Na+ channels in the SA and RA neurons have different distributions and that the difference in the spatial distribution of Na+ channel types may be important for the difference in firing properties in the two types of neurons. Copyright 1999 Elsevier Science B.V.

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

2017-08-10

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial for other species occupying landscapes with heterogeneous disturbance and climatic regimes.

Differential dynamics of spatial attention, position, and color coding within the parietofrontal network.

PubMed

Astrand, Elaine; Ibos, Guilhem; Duhamel, Jean-René; Ben Hamed, Suliann

2015-02-18

Despite an ever growing knowledge on how parietal and prefrontal neurons encode low-level spatial and color information or higher-level information, such as spatial attention, an understanding of how these cortical regions process neuronal information at the population level is still missing. A simple assumption would be that the function and temporal response profiles of these neuronal populations match that of its constituting individual cells. However, several recent studies suggest that this is not necessarily the case and that the single-cell approach overlooks dynamic changes in how information is distributed over the neuronal population. Here, we use a time-resolved population pattern analysis to explore how spatial position, spatial attention and color information are differentially encoded and maintained in the macaque monkey prefrontal (frontal eye fields) and parietal cortex (lateral intraparietal area). Overall, our work brings about three novel observations. First, we show that parietal and prefrontal populations operate in two distinct population regimens for the encoding of sensory and cognitive information: a stationary mode and a dynamic mode. Second, we show that the temporal dynamics of a heterogeneous neuronal population brings about complementary information to that of its functional subpopulations. Thus, both need to be investigated in parallel. Last, we show that identifying the neuronal configuration in which a neuronal population encodes given information can serve to reveal this same information in a different context. All together, this work challenges common views on neural coding in the parietofrontal network. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/353174-16$15.00/0.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

Anthropogenic heat flux: advisable spatial resolutions when input data are scarce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabey, A. M.; Grimmond, C. S. B.; Capel-Timms, I.

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic heat flux (QF) may be significant in cities, especially under low solar irradiance and at night. It is of interest to many practitioners including meteorologists, city planners and climatologists. QF estimates at fine temporal and spatial resolution can be derived from models that use varying amounts of empirical data. This study compares simple and detailed models in a European megacity (London) at 500 m spatial resolution. The simple model (LQF) uses spatially resolved population data and national energy statistics. The detailed model (GQF) additionally uses local energy, road network and workday population data. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and bias are used to rate the skill with which the simple model reproduces the spatial patterns and magnitudes of QF, and its sub-components, from the detailed model. LQF skill was consistently good across 90% of the city, away from the centre and major roads. The remaining 10% contained elevated emissions and "hot spots" representing 30-40% of the total city-wide energy. This structure was lost because it requires workday population, spatially resolved building energy consumption and/or road network data. Daily total building and traffic energy consumption estimates from national data were within ± 40% of local values. Progressively coarser spatial resolutions to 5 km improved skill for total QF, but important features (hot spots, transport network) were lost at all resolutions when residential population controlled spatial variations. The results demonstrate that simple QF models should be applied with conservative spatial resolution in cities that, like London, exhibit time-varying energy use patterns.

Optimal sampling design for estimating spatial distribution and abundance of a freshwater mussel population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pooler, P.S.; Smith, D.R.

2005-01-01

We compared the ability of simple random sampling (SRS) and a variety of systematic sampling (SYS) designs to estimate abundance, quantify spatial clustering, and predict spatial distribution of freshwater mussels. Sampling simulations were conducted using data obtained from a census of freshwater mussels in a 40 X 33 m section of the Cacapon River near Capon Bridge, West Virginia, and from a simulated spatially random population generated to have the same abundance as the real population. Sampling units that were 0.25 m 2 gave more accurate and precise abundance estimates and generally better spatial predictions than 1-m2 sampling units. Systematic sampling with ???2 random starts was more efficient than SRS. Estimates of abundance based on SYS were more accurate when the distance between sampling units across the stream was less than or equal to the distance between sampling units along the stream. Three measures for quantifying spatial clustering were examined: Hopkins Statistic, the Clumping Index, and Morisita's Index. Morisita's Index was the most reliable, and the Hopkins Statistic was prone to false rejection of complete spatial randomness. SYS designs with units spaced equally across and up stream provided the most accurate predictions when estimating the spatial distribution by kriging. Our research indicates that SYS designs with sampling units equally spaced both across and along the stream would be appropriate for sampling freshwater mussels even if no information about the true underlying spatial distribution of the population were available to guide the design choice. ?? 2005 by The North American Benthological Society.

A foundation for savantism? Visuo-spatial synaesthetes present with cognitive benefits.

PubMed

Simner, Julia; Mayo, Neil; Spiller, Mary-Jane

2009-01-01

Individuals with 'time-space' synaesthesia have conscious awareness of mappings between time and space (e.g., they may see months arranged in an ellipse, or years as columns or spirals). These mappings exist in the 3D space around the body or in a virtual space within the mind's eye. Our study shows that these extra-ordinary mappings derive from, or give rise to, superior abilities in the two domains linked by this cross-modal phenomenon (i.e., abilities relating to time, and visualised space). We tested ten time-space synaesthetes with a battery of temporal and visual/spatial tests. Our temporal battery (the Edinburgh [Public and Autobiographical] Events Battery - EEB) assessed both autobiographical and non-autobiographical memory for events. Our visual/spatial tests assessed the ability to manipulate real or imagined objects in 3D space (the Three Dimensional Constructional Praxis test; Visual Object and Space Perception Battery, University of Southern California Mental Rotation Test) as well as assessing visual memory recall (Visual Patterns Test - VPT). Synaesthetes' performance was superior to the control population in every assessment, but was not superior in tasks that do not draw upon abilities related to their mental calendars. Our paper discusses the implications of this temporal-spatial advantage as it relates to normal processing, synaesthetic processing, and to the savant-like condition of hyperthymestic syndrome (Parker et al., 2006).

Forecasting Influenza Outbreaks in Boroughs and Neighborhoods of New York City.

PubMed

Yang, Wan; Olson, Donald R; Shaman, Jeffrey

2016-11-01

The ideal spatial scale, or granularity, at which infectious disease incidence should be monitored and forecast has been little explored. By identifying the optimal granularity for a given disease and host population, and matching surveillance and prediction efforts to this scale, response to emergent and recurrent outbreaks can be improved. Here we explore how granularity and representation of spatial structure affect influenza forecast accuracy within New York City. We develop network models at the borough and neighborhood levels, and use them in conjunction with surveillance data and a data assimilation method to forecast influenza activity. These forecasts are compared to an alternate system that predicts influenza for each borough or neighborhood in isolation. At the borough scale, influenza epidemics are highly synchronous despite substantial differences in intensity, and inclusion of network connectivity among boroughs generally improves forecast accuracy. At the neighborhood scale, we observe much greater spatial heterogeneity among influenza outbreaks including substantial differences in local outbreak timing and structure; however, inclusion of the network model structure generally degrades forecast accuracy. One notable exception is that local outbreak onset, particularly when signal is modest, is better predicted with the network model. These findings suggest that observation and forecast at sub-municipal scales within New York City provides richer, more discriminant information on influenza incidence, particularly at the neighborhood scale where greater heterogeneity exists, and that the spatial spread of influenza among localities can be forecast.

Mapping outdoor recreationists' perceived social values for ecosystem services at Hinchinbrook Island National Park, Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Riper, Carena J.; Kyle, Gerard T.; Sutton, Stephen G.; Barnes, Melinda; Sherrouse, Benson C.

2012-01-01

Coastal ecosystems are increasingly faced with human impacts. To better understand these changing conditions, biophysical and economic values of nature have been used to prioritize spatial planning efforts and ecosystem-based management of human activities. Less is known, however, about how to characterize and represent non-material values in decision-making. We collected on-site and mailback survey data (n = 209), and analyzed these data using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) GIS application to incorporate measures of social value and natural resource conditions on Hinchinbrook Island National Park, Australia. Our objectives in this paper are to: 1) determine the spatial distribution and point density of social values for ecosystem services; 2) examine the relationship between social values and natural resource conditions; and 3) compare social value allocations between two subgroups of outdoor recreationists. Results suggest that high priority areas exist on Hinchinbrook's land and seascapes according to the multiple values assigned to places by outdoor recreationists engaged in consumptive (e.g., fishing) and non-consumptive (e.g., hiking) activities. We examine statistically significant spatial clustering across two subgroups of the survey population for three value types that reflect Recreation, Biological Diversity, and Aesthetic qualities. The relationship between the relative importance of social values for ecosystem services and spatially-defined ecological data is explored to guide management decision-making in the context of an island national park setting.

Variation of ecosystem services and human activities: A case study in the Yanhe Watershed of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Chang-hong; Fu, Bo-Jie; He, Chan-Sheng; Lü, Yi-He

2012-10-01

The concept of 'ecosystem service' provides cohesive views on mechanisms by which nature contributes to human well-being. Fast social and economic development calls for research on interactions between human and natural systems. We took the Yanhe Watershed as our study area, and valued the variation of ecosystem services and human activities of 2000 and 2008. Five ecosystem services were selected i.e. net primary production (NPP), carbon sequestration and oxygen production (CSOP), water conservation, soil conservation, and grain production. Human activity was represented by a composite human activity index (HAI) that integrates human population density, farmland ratio, influence of residential sites and road network. Analysis results of the five ecosystem services and human activity (HAI) are as follows: (i) NPP, CSOP, water conservation, and soil conservation increased from 2000 to 2008, while grain production declined. HAI decreased from 2000 to 2008. Spatially, NPP, CSOP, and water conservation in 2000 and 2008 roughly demonstrated a pattern of decline from south to north, while grain production shows an endocentric increasing spatial pattern. Soil conservation showed a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north in 2000 and a different pattern of high in the west and low in the east in 2008 respectively. HAI is proportional to the administrative level and economic development. Variation of NPP/CSOP between 2000 and 2008 show an increasing spatial pattern from northwest to southeast. In contrast, the variation of soil conservation shows an increasing pattern from southeast to northwest. Variation of water conservation shows a fanning out decreasing pattern. Variation of grain production doesn't show conspicuous spatial pattern. (ii) Variation of water conservation and of soil conservation is significantly positively correlated at 0.01 level. Both variations of water conservation and soil conservation are negatively correlated with variation of HAI at 0.01 level. Variations of NPP/CSOP are negatively correlated with variations of soil conservation and grain production at 0.05 level. (iii) Strong tradeoffs exist between regulation services and provision service, while synergies exist within regulation services. Driving effect of human activities on ecosystem services and tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem service are also discussed.

REVIEW OF SIMULATION METHODS FOR SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

Exploration of Urban Spatial Planning Evaluation Based on Humanland Harmony

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, X. S.; Ma, Q. R.; Liang, W. Q.; Wang, C. X.; Xiong, X. Q.; Han, X. H.

2017-09-01

This study puts forward a new concept, "population urbanization level forecast - driving factor analysis - urban spatial planning analysis" for achieving efficient and intensive development of urbanization considering human-land harmony. We analyzed big data for national economic and social development, studied the development trends of population urbanization and its influencing factors using the grey system model in Chengmai county of Hainan province, China. In turn, we calculated the population of Chengmai coming years based on the forecasting urbanization rate and the corresponding amount of urban construction land, and evaluated the urban spatial planning with GIS spatial analysis method in the study area. The result shows that the proposed concept is feasible for evaluation of urban spatial planning, and is meaningful for guiding the rational distribution of urban space, controlling the scale of development, improving the quality of urbanization and thus promoting highly-efficient and intensive use of limited land resource.

Marine spatial planning in practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collie, Jeremy S.; (Vic) Adamowicz, W. L.; Beck, Michael W.; Craig, Bethany; Essington, Timothy E.; Fluharty, David; Rice, Jake; Sanchirico, James N.

2013-01-01

Multiple competing uses of continental-shelf environments have led to a proliferation of marine spatial planning initiatives, together with expert guidance on marine spatial planning. This study provides an empirical review of marine spatial plans, their attributes, and the extent to which the expert guidance is actually being followed. We performed a structured review of 16 existing marine spatial plans and created an idealized marine spatial plan from the steps included in recent expert papers. A cluster analysis of the yes/no answers to 28 questions was used to ordinate the 16 marine spatial plans and to compare them with the idealized plan. All the plans that have been implemented have a high-level government mandate and the authority to implement spatial planning vested in existing institutions. Almost all the plans used data with clear criteria for data inclusion. Stakeholders were included in almost all the plans; they did not participate in all stages of the planning process but their roles were generally clearly defined. Decision-support tools were applied inconsistently across plans and were seldom used dynamically over time. Most spatial planning processes did not select specific outcomes, such as preferred use scenarios. Success is defined inconsistently across plans; in half the cases there are no metrics of success with reference benchmarks. Although monitoring is included in the majority of plans, only in some cases do monitoring results feed back into management decisions. The process of marine spatial planning had advanced in that some of the more recent plans were developed more quickly and contain more desirable attributes than earlier plans. Even so, existing marine spatial plans are heterogeneous—there are essential ingredients, but no single recipe for success.

[Spatial distribution pattern and fractal analysis of Larix chinensis populations in Qinling Mountain].

PubMed

Guo, Hua; Wang, Xiaoan; Xiao, Yaping

2005-02-01

In this paper, the fractal characters of Larix chinensis populations in Qinling Mountain were studied by contiguous grid quadrate sampling method and by boxing-counting dimension and information dimension. The results showed that the high boxing-counting dimension (1.8087) and information dimension (1.7931) reflected a higher spatial occupational degree of L. chinensis populations. Judged by the dispersal index and Morisita's pattern index, L. chinensis populations clumped at three different age stages (0-25, 25-50 and over 50 years). From Greig-Smiths' mean variance analysis, the figure of pattern scale showed that L. chinensis populations clumped in 128 m2 and 512 m2, and the different age groups clumped in different scales. The pattern intensities decreased with increasing age, and tended to reduce with increasing area when detected by Kershaw's PI index. The spatial pattern characters of L. chinensis populations may be their responses to environmental factors.

Combinational Reasoning of Quantitative Fuzzy Topological Relations for Simple Fuzzy Regions

PubMed Central

Liu, Bo; Li, Dajun; Xia, Yuanping; Ruan, Jian; Xu, Lili; Wu, Huanyi

2015-01-01

In recent years, formalization and reasoning of topological relations have become a hot topic as a means to generate knowledge about the relations between spatial objects at the conceptual and geometrical levels. These mechanisms have been widely used in spatial data query, spatial data mining, evaluation of equivalence and similarity in a spatial scene, as well as for consistency assessment of the topological relations of multi-resolution spatial databases. The concept of computational fuzzy topological space is applied to simple fuzzy regions to efficiently and more accurately solve fuzzy topological relations. Thus, extending the existing research and improving upon the previous work, this paper presents a new method to describe fuzzy topological relations between simple spatial regions in Geographic Information Sciences (GIS) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Firstly, we propose a new definition for simple fuzzy line segments and simple fuzzy regions based on the computational fuzzy topology. And then, based on the new definitions, we also propose a new combinational reasoning method to compute the topological relations between simple fuzzy regions, moreover, this study has discovered that there are (1) 23 different topological relations between a simple crisp region and a simple fuzzy region; (2) 152 different topological relations between two simple fuzzy regions. In the end, we have discussed some examples to demonstrate the validity of the new method, through comparisons with existing fuzzy models, we showed that the proposed method can compute more than the existing models, as it is more expressive than the existing fuzzy models. PMID:25775452

Potential corridors and barriers for plague spread in Central Asia.

PubMed

Wilschut, Liesbeth I; Addink, Elisabeth A; Heesterbeek, Hans; Heier, Lise; Laudisoit, Anne; Begon, Mike; Davis, Stephen; Dubyanskiy, Vladimir M; Burdelov, Leonid A; de Jong, Steven M

2013-10-31

Plague (Yersinia pestis infection) is a vector-borne disease which caused millions of human deaths in the Middle Ages. The hosts of plague are mostly rodents, and the disease is spread by the fleas that feed on them. Currently, the disease still circulates amongst sylvatic rodent populations all over the world, including great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations in Central Asia. Great gerbils are social desert rodents that live in family groups in burrows, which are visible on satellite images. In great gerbil populations an abundance threshold exists, above which plague can spread causing epizootics. The spatial distribution of the host species is thought to influence the plague dynamics, such as the direction of plague spread, however no detailed analysis exists on the possible functional or structural corridors and barriers that are present in this population and landscape. This study aims to fill that gap. Three 20 by 20 km areas with known great gerbil burrow distributions were used to analyse the spatial distribution of the burrows. Object-based image analysis was used to map the landscape at several scales, and was linked to the burrow maps. A novel object-based method was developed - the mean neighbour absolute burrow density difference (MNABDD) - to identify the optimal scale and evaluate the efficacy of using landscape objects as opposed to square cells. Multiple regression using raster maps was used to identify the landscape-ecological variables that explain burrow density best. Functional corridors and barriers were mapped using burrow density thresholds. Cumulative resistance of the burrow distribution to potential disease spread was evaluated using cost distance analysis. A 46-year plague surveillance dataset was used to evaluate whether plague spread was radially symmetric. The burrow distribution was found to be non-random and negatively correlated with Greenness, especially in the floodplain areas. Corridors and barriers showed a mostly NWSE alignment, suggesting easier spreading along this axis. This was confirmed by the analysis of the plague data. Plague spread had a predominantly NWSE direction, which is likely due to the NWSE alignment of corridors and barriers in the burrow distribution and the landscape. This finding may improve predictions of plague in the future and emphasizes the importance of including landscape analysis in wildlife disease studies.

Potential corridors and barriers for plague spread in central Asia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Plague (Yersinia pestis infection) is a vector-borne disease which caused millions of human deaths in the Middle Ages. The hosts of plague are mostly rodents, and the disease is spread by the fleas that feed on them. Currently, the disease still circulates amongst sylvatic rodent populations all over the world, including great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations in Central Asia. Great gerbils are social desert rodents that live in family groups in burrows, which are visible on satellite images. In great gerbil populations an abundance threshold exists, above which plague can spread causing epizootics. The spatial distribution of the host species is thought to influence the plague dynamics, such as the direction of plague spread, however no detailed analysis exists on the possible functional or structural corridors and barriers that are present in this population and landscape. This study aims to fill that gap. Methods Three 20 by 20 km areas with known great gerbil burrow distributions were used to analyse the spatial distribution of the burrows. Object-based image analysis was used to map the landscape at several scales, and was linked to the burrow maps. A novel object-based method was developed – the mean neighbour absolute burrow density difference (MNABDD) – to identify the optimal scale and evaluate the efficacy of using landscape objects as opposed to square cells. Multiple regression using raster maps was used to identify the landscape-ecological variables that explain burrow density best. Functional corridors and barriers were mapped using burrow density thresholds. Cumulative resistance of the burrow distribution to potential disease spread was evaluated using cost distance analysis. A 46-year plague surveillance dataset was used to evaluate whether plague spread was radially symmetric. Results The burrow distribution was found to be non-random and negatively correlated with Greenness, especially in the floodplain areas. Corridors and barriers showed a mostly NWSE alignment, suggesting easier spreading along this axis. This was confirmed by the analysis of the plague data. Conclusions Plague spread had a predominantly NWSE direction, which is likely due to the NWSE alignment of corridors and barriers in the burrow distribution and the landscape. This finding may improve predictions of plague in the future and emphasizes the importance of including landscape analysis in wildlife disease studies. PMID:24171709

Population receptive field (pRF) measurements of chromatic responses in human visual cortex using fMRI.

PubMed

Welbourne, Lauren E; Morland, Antony B; Wade, Alex R

2018-02-15

The spatial sensitivity of the human visual system depends on stimulus color: achromatic gratings can be resolved at relatively high spatial frequencies while sensitivity to isoluminant color contrast tends to be more low-pass. Models of early spatial vision often assume that the receptive field size of pattern-sensitive neurons is correlated with their spatial frequency sensitivity - larger receptive fields are typically associated with lower optimal spatial frequency. A strong prediction of this model is that neurons coding isoluminant chromatic patterns should have, on average, a larger receptive field size than neurons sensitive to achromatic patterns. Here, we test this assumption using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We show that while spatial frequency sensitivity depends on chromaticity in the manner predicted by behavioral measurements, population receptive field (pRF) size measurements show no such dependency. At any given eccentricity, the mean pRF size for neuronal populations driven by luminance, opponent red/green and S-cone isolating contrast, are identical. Changes in pRF size (for example, an increase with eccentricity and visual area hierarchy) are also identical across the three chromatic conditions. These results suggest that fMRI measurements of receptive field size and spatial resolution can be decoupled under some circumstances - potentially reflecting a fundamental dissociation between these parameters at the level of neuronal populations. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On static solutions of the Einstein-Scalar Field equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiris, Martín

2017-03-01

In this article we study self-gravitating static solutions of the Einstein-Scalar Field system in arbitrary dimensions. We discuss the existence of geodesically complete solutions depending on the form of the scalar field potential V(φ ), and provide full global geometric estimates when the solutions exist. The most complete results are obtained for the physically important Klein-Gordon field and are summarised as follows. When V(φ )=m2|φ |2, it is proved that geodesically complete solutions have Ricci-flat spatial metric, have constant lapse and are vacuum, (that is φ is constant and equal to zero if m≠ 0). In particular, when the spatial dimension is three, the only such solutions are either Minkowski or a quotient thereof (no nontrivial solutions exist). When V(φ )=m2|φ |2+2Λ , that is, when a vacuum energy or a cosmological constant is included, it is proved that no geodesically complete solution exists when Λ >0, whereas when Λ <0 it is proved that no non-vacuum geodesically complete solution exists unless m2<-2Λ /(n-1), ( n is the spatial dimension) and the spatial manifold is non-compact. The proofs are based on novel techniques in comparison geometry á la Bakry-Émery that have their own interest.

Modelling optimal location for pre-hospital helicopter emergency medical services.

PubMed

Schuurman, Nadine; Bell, Nathaniel J; L'Heureux, Randy; Hameed, Syed M

2009-05-09

Increasing the range and scope of early activation/auto launch helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) may alleviate unnecessary injury mortality that disproportionately affects rural populations. To date, attempts to develop a quantitative framework for the optimal location of HEMS facilities have been absent. Our analysis used five years of critical care data from tertiary health care facilities, spatial data on origin of transport and accurate road travel time catchments for tertiary centres. A location optimization model was developed to identify where the expansion of HEMS would cover the greatest population among those currently underserved. The protocol was developed using geographic information systems (GIS) to measure populations, distances and accessibility to services. Our model determined Royal Inland Hospital (RIH) was the optimal site for an expanded HEMS - based on denominator population, distance to services and historical usage patterns. GIS based protocols for location of emergency medical resources can provide supportive evidence for allocation decisions - especially when resources are limited. In this study, we were able to demonstrate conclusively that a logical choice exists for location of additional HEMS. This protocol could be extended to location analysis for other emergency and health services.

Spatial Reasoning and Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

La Pierre, Sharon D.; Fellenz, Robert A.

This monograph contains two studies in which the notion of intelligence as one general basic ability is rejected and in its place is posited the existence of a specific type of mental ability described as "spatial intelligence.""Spatial Reasoning and Its Measurement" investigates the process of spatial reasoning in the adult through an analysis of…

Impact of mammography screening programmes on breast cancer mortality in Switzerland, a country with different regional screening policies.

PubMed

Herrmann, Christian; Vounatsou, Penelope; Thürlimann, Beat; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Rothermundt, Christian; Ess, Silvia

2018-03-14

In the past decades, mortality due to breast cancer has declined considerably in Switzerland and other developed countries. The reasons for this decline remain controversial as several factors occurred almost simultaneously, including important advances in treatment approaches, breast cancer awareness and the introduction of mammography screening programmes in many European countries. In Switzerland, mammography screening programmes (MSPs) have existed in some regions for over 20 years but do not yet exist in others. This offers the possibility to analyse its effects with modern spatiotemporal methodology. We aimed to assess the spatiotemporal patterns and the effect of MSPs on breast cancer mortality. Switzerland. The study covers breast cancer deaths of the female population of Switzerland during the period 1969-2012. We retrieved data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office aggregated on a small-area level. We fitted Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal models on death rates indirectly standardised by national references. We used linguistic region, degree of urbanisation, duration of population-based screening programmes and socioeconomic index as covariates. In Switzerland, breast cancer mortality in women slightly increased until 1989-1992 and declined strongly thereafter. Until 2009-2012, the standardised mortality ratio declined to 57% (95% CI 54% to 60%) of the 1969-1972 value. None of the other coefficients of the spatial regressions had a significant effect on breast cancer mortality. In 2009-2012, no region had significantly elevated or reduced breast cancer mortality at 95% credible interval level compared with the national mean. There has been a strong reduction of breast cancer mortality from the 1990s onwards. No important spatial disparities were observed. The factors studied (urbanisation, language, duration of population-based MSP and socioeconomic characteristics) did not seem to have an influence on them. Low participation rates and opportunistic screening use may have contributed to the low impact of MSPs. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A Method for Mapping Future Urbanization in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Thome, Kurtis; Zhang, Ping; Fathi, Najlaa; Lachir, Asia

2018-01-01

Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL), most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.

FIND: difFerential chromatin INteractions Detection using a spatial Poisson process.

PubMed

Djekidel, Mohamed Nadhir; Chen, Yang; Zhang, Michael Q

2018-02-12

Polymer-based simulations and experimental studies indicate the existence of a spatial dependency between the adjacent DNA fibers involved in the formation of chromatin loops. However, the existing strategies for detecting differential chromatin interactions assume that the interacting segments are spatially independent from the other segments nearby. To resolve this issue, we developed a new computational method, FIND, which considers the local spatial dependency between interacting loci. FIND uses a spatial Poisson process to detect differential chromatin interactions that show a significant difference in their interaction frequency and the interaction frequency of their neighbors. Simulation and biological data analysis show that FIND outperforms the widely used count-based methods and has a better signal-to-noise ratio. © 2018 Djekidel et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Cooperative Spatial Retreat for Resilient Drone Networks.

PubMed

Kang, Jin-Hyeok; Kwon, Young-Min; Park, Kyung-Joon

2017-05-03

Drones are broadening their scope to various applications such as networking, package delivery, agriculture, rescue, and many more. For proper operation of drones, reliable communication should be guaranteed because drones are remotely controlled. When drones experience communication failure due to bad channel condition, interference, or jamming in a certain area, one existing solution is to exploit mobility or so-called spatial retreat to evacuate them from the communication failure area. However, the conventional spatial retreat scheme moves drones in random directions, which results in inefficient movement with significant evacuation time and waste of battery lifetime. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial retreat technique that takes advantage of cooperation between drones for resilient networking, which is called cooperative spatial retreat (CSR). Our performance evaluation shows that the proposed CSR significantly outperforms existing schemes.

Hierarchical spatial capture-recapture models: Modeling population density from stratified populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.

2014-01-01

Capture–recapture studies are often conducted on populations that are stratified by space, time or other factors. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatial capture–recapture (SCR) modelling framework for stratified populations – when sampling occurs within multiple distinct spatial and temporal strata.We describe a hierarchical model that integrates distinct models for both the spatial encounter history data from capture–recapture sampling, and also for modelling variation in density among strata. We use an implementation of data augmentation to parameterize the model in terms of a latent categorical stratum or group membership variable, which provides a convenient implementation in popular BUGS software packages.We provide an example application to an experimental study involving small-mammal sampling on multiple trapping grids over multiple years, where the main interest is in modelling a treatment effect on population density among the trapping grids.Many capture–recapture studies involve some aspect of spatial or temporal replication that requires some attention to modelling variation among groups or strata. We propose a hierarchical model that allows explicit modelling of group or strata effects. Because the model is formulated for individual encounter histories and is easily implemented in the BUGS language and other free software, it also provides a general framework for modelling individual effects, such as are present in SCR models.

Spatial genetic analyses reveal cryptic population structure and migration patterns in a continuously harvested grey wolf (Canis lupus) population in north-eastern Europe.

PubMed

Hindrikson, Maris; Remm, Jaanus; Männil, Peep; Ozolins, Janis; Tammeleht, Egle; Saarma, Urmas

2013-01-01

Spatial genetics is a relatively new field in wildlife and conservation biology that is becoming an essential tool for unravelling the complexities of animal population processes, and for designing effective strategies for conservation and management. Conceptual and methodological developments in this field are therefore critical. Here we present two novel methodological approaches that further the analytical possibilities of STRUCTURE and DResD. Using these approaches we analyse structure and migrations in a grey wolf (Canislupus) population in north-eastern Europe. We genotyped 16 microsatellite loci in 166 individuals sampled from the wolf population in Estonia and Latvia that has been under strong and continuous hunting pressure for decades. Our analysis demonstrated that this relatively small wolf population is represented by four genetic groups. We also used a novel methodological approach that uses linear interpolation to statistically test the spatial separation of genetic groups. The new method, which is capable of using program STRUCTURE output, can be applied widely in population genetics to reveal both core areas and areas of low significance for genetic groups. We also used a recently developed spatially explicit individual-based method DResD, and applied it for the first time to microsatellite data, revealing a migration corridor and barriers, and several contact zones.

Spatial genetic structuring of baobab (Adansonia digitata, Malvaceae) in the traditional agroforestry systems of West Africa.

PubMed

Kyndt, Tina; Assogbadjo, Achille E; Hardy, Olivier J; Glele Kakaï, Romain; Sinsin, Brice; Van Damme, Patrick; Gheysen, Godelieve

2009-05-01

This study evaluates the spatial genetic structure of baobab (Adansonia digitata) populations from West African agroforestry systems at different geographical scales using AFLP fingerprints. Eleven populations from four countries (Benin, Ghana, Burkina Faso, and Senegal) had comparable levels of genetic diversity, although the two populations in the extreme west (Senegal) had less diversity. Pairwise F(ST) ranged from 0.02 to 0.28 and increased with geographic distance, even at a regional scale. Gene pools detected by Bayesian clustering seem to be a byproduct of the isolation-by-distance pattern rather than representing actual discrete entities. The organization of genetic diversity appears to result essentially from spatially restricted gene flow, with some influences of human seed exchange. Despite the potential for relatively long-distance pollen and seed dispersal by bats within populations, statistically significant spatial genetic structuring within populations (SGS) was detected and gave a mean indirect estimate of neighborhood size of ca. 45. This study demonstrated that relatively high levels of genetic structuring are present in baobab at both large and within-population level, which was unexpected in regard to its dispersal by bats and the influence of human exchange of seeds. Implications of these results for the conservation of baobab populations are discussed.

Infrared Ship Target Segmentation Based on Spatial Information Improved FCM.

PubMed

Bai, Xiangzhi; Chen, Zhiguo; Zhang, Yu; Liu, Zhaoying; Lu, Yi

2016-12-01

Segmentation of infrared (IR) ship images is always a challenging task, because of the intensity inhomogeneity and noise. The fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering is a classical method widely used in image segmentation. However, it has some shortcomings, like not considering the spatial information or being sensitive to noise. In this paper, an improved FCM method based on the spatial information is proposed for IR ship target segmentation. The improvements include two parts: 1) adding the nonlocal spatial information based on the ship target and 2) using the spatial shape information of the contour of the ship target to refine the local spatial constraint by Markov random field. In addition, the results of K -means are used to initialize the improved FCM method. Experimental results show that the improved method is effective and performs better than the existing methods, including the existing FCM methods, for segmentation of the IR ship images.

Mapping genetic diversity of cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.): application of spatial analysis for conservation and use of plant genetic resources.

PubMed

Zonneveld, Maarten van; Scheldeman, Xavier; Escribano, Pilar; Viruel, María A; Van Damme, Patrick; Garcia, Willman; Tapia, César; Romero, José; Sigueñas, Manuel; Hormaza, José I

2012-01-01

There is a growing call for inventories that evaluate geographic patterns in diversity of plant genetic resources maintained on farm and in species' natural populations in order to enhance their use and conservation. Such evaluations are relevant for useful tropical and subtropical tree species, as many of these species are still undomesticated, or in incipient stages of domestication and local populations can offer yet-unknown traits of high value to further domestication. For many outcrossing species, such as most trees, inbreeding depression can be an issue, and genetic diversity is important to sustain local production. Diversity is also crucial for species to adapt to environmental changes. This paper explores the possibilities of incorporating molecular marker data into Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to allow visualization and better understanding of spatial patterns of genetic diversity as a key input to optimize conservation and use of plant genetic resources, based on a case study of cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.), a Neotropical fruit tree species. We present spatial analyses to (1) improve the understanding of spatial distribution of genetic diversity of cherimoya natural stands and cultivated trees in Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru based on microsatellite molecular markers (SSRs); and (2) formulate optimal conservation strategies by revealing priority areas for in situ conservation, and identifying existing diversity gaps in ex situ collections. We found high levels of allelic richness, locally common alleles and expected heterozygosity in cherimoya's putative centre of origin, southern Ecuador and northern Peru, whereas levels of diversity in southern Peru and especially in Bolivia were significantly lower. The application of GIS on a large microsatellite dataset allows a more detailed prioritization of areas for in situ conservation and targeted collection across the Andean distribution range of cherimoya than previous studies could do, i.e. at province and department level in Ecuador and Peru, respectively.

Mapping Genetic Diversity of Cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.): Application of Spatial Analysis for Conservation and Use of Plant Genetic Resources

PubMed Central

van Zonneveld, Maarten; Scheldeman, Xavier; Escribano, Pilar; Viruel, María A.; Van Damme, Patrick; Garcia, Willman; Tapia, César; Romero, José; Sigueñas, Manuel; Hormaza, José I.

2012-01-01

There is a growing call for inventories that evaluate geographic patterns in diversity of plant genetic resources maintained on farm and in species' natural populations in order to enhance their use and conservation. Such evaluations are relevant for useful tropical and subtropical tree species, as many of these species are still undomesticated, or in incipient stages of domestication and local populations can offer yet-unknown traits of high value to further domestication. For many outcrossing species, such as most trees, inbreeding depression can be an issue, and genetic diversity is important to sustain local production. Diversity is also crucial for species to adapt to environmental changes. This paper explores the possibilities of incorporating molecular marker data into Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to allow visualization and better understanding of spatial patterns of genetic diversity as a key input to optimize conservation and use of plant genetic resources, based on a case study of cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.), a Neotropical fruit tree species. We present spatial analyses to (1) improve the understanding of spatial distribution of genetic diversity of cherimoya natural stands and cultivated trees in Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru based on microsatellite molecular markers (SSRs); and (2) formulate optimal conservation strategies by revealing priority areas for in situ conservation, and identifying existing diversity gaps in ex situ collections. We found high levels of allelic richness, locally common alleles and expected heterozygosity in cherimoya's putative centre of origin, southern Ecuador and northern Peru, whereas levels of diversity in southern Peru and especially in Bolivia were significantly lower. The application of GIS on a large microsatellite dataset allows a more detailed prioritization of areas for in situ conservation and targeted collection across the Andean distribution range of cherimoya than previous studies could do, i.e. at province and department level in Ecuador and Peru, respectively. PMID:22253801

On the Spatial Spread of Rabies among Foxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. D.; Stanley, E. A.; Brown, D. L.

1986-11-01

We present a simple model for the spatial spread of rabies among foxes and use it to quantify its progress in England if rabies were introduced. The model is based on the known ecology of fox behaviour and on the assumption that the main vector for the spread of the disease is the rabid fox. Known data and facts are used to determine real parameter values involved in the model. We calculate the speed of propagation of the epizootic front, the threshold for the existence of an epidemic, the period and distance apart of the subsequent cyclical epidemics which follow the main front, and finally we quantify a means for control of the spatial spread of the disease. By way of illustration we use the model to determine the progress of rabies up through the southern part of England if it were introduced near Southampton. Estimates for the current fox density in England were used in the simulations. These suggest that the disease would reach Manchester within about 3.5 years, moving at speeds as high as 100 km per year in the central region. The model further indicates that although it might seem that the disease had disappeared after the wave had passed it would reappear in the south of England after just over 6 years and at periodic times after that. We consider the possibility of stopping the spread of the disease by creating a rabies `break' ahead of the front through vaccination to reduce the population to a level below the threshold for an epidemic to exist. Based on parameter values relevant to England, we estimate its minimum width to be about 15 km. The model suggests that vaccination has considerable advantages over severe culling.

A Note on the Spatio Temporal Variations in the Temperature and Relative Humidity over Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eludoyin, A. O.; Akinbode, O. M.; Archibong, E. O.

2007-07-01

This study was carried out in one of the Administrative State Capitals in the southwestern part of Nigeria. Its aim is to serve as a baseline data for highlighting the effect of spatial distribution of settlements, population, and socioeconomic activities on urban air temperature and relative humidity. The main objective of the study is to assess the impact of urban growth on the microclimate of the administrative city. Temperature and relative humidity data from 1992 to 2001 were obtained from the three existing meteorological stations in Akure, the Administrative Capital of Ondo State, Nigeria, namely the Federal Ministry of Aviation, Akure Airport station (FMA), Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) and the Federal School of Agriculture (SOA). Air temperature and relative humidity measurements along primary roads and in the built up areas were obtained from seventeen stations, using sling psychrometer. The data were subsequently analysed for spatial and temporal variations. The results obtained indicated that while the maximum, average and minimum temperatures showed significant annual variations, the spatial variations among the existing meteorological stations were not significant. The city is characterized by increasing annual mean temperatures whose maximum was significantly higher than that of Ondo town — another important town within the state. The annual mean temperatures ranged between 26.2°C and 30.4°C. Minimum and maximum temperatures varied from 12.3°C to 26°C and 22.5°C to 39.6°C, respectively while the relative humidity ranged between 27.5% and 98.2%. Urban `heat island' intensity was exhibited around central business district of the Oba market. 2007 American Institute of Physics

Spatial nonuniformity of electron energy in a microwave atmospheric-pressure microplasma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu Liguo; Institute of Fluid Physics, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang, Sichuan 621900; Zhang Zhibo

The characteristics of the electron energy in a microwave atmospheric-pressure argon microplasma are investigated by a spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy. By adding tiny amount of xenon (<1 ppm) as tracer gas into the argon discharge, it is found that the spatial distribution of the electrons with energy >8.3 eV is quite different from that of the electrons with energy >11.5 eV. Spatial distribution of the population ratio between 4p and 5p levels of Ar atom is also determined. Furthermore, with a collisional-radiative model, it is found that the spatial variation of this population ratio is mainly attributed to themore » spatial nonuniformity of the effective electron temperature.« less

Geostatistics for spatial genetic structures: study of wild populations of perennial ryegrass.

PubMed

Monestiez, P; Goulard, M; Charmet, G

1994-04-01

Methods based on geostatistics were applied to quantitative traits of agricultural interest measured on a collection of 547 wild populations of perennial ryegrass in France. The mathematical background of these methods, which resembles spatial autocorrelation analysis, is briefly described. When a single variable is studied, the spatial structure analysis is similar to spatial autocorrelation analysis, and a spatial prediction method, called "kriging", gives a filtered map of the spatial pattern over all the sampled area. When complex interactions of agronomic traits with different evaluation sites define a multivariate structure for the spatial analysis, geostatistical methods allow the spatial variations to be broken down into two main spatial structures with ranges of 120 km and 300 km, respectively. The predicted maps that corresponded to each range were interpreted as a result of the isolation-by-distance model and as a consequence of selection by environmental factors. Practical collecting methodology for breeders may be derived from such spatial structures.

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns

DOE PAGES

Norred, Sarah Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M.; Chauhan, Gaurav; ...

2018-04-24

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting—the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increasemore » in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA (“spatial noise”) that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. Furthermore, these results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.« less

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norred, Sarah Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M.; Chauhan, Gaurav

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting—the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increasemore » in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA (“spatial noise”) that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. Furthermore, these results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.« less

Multi-scale approaches for high-speed imaging and analysis of large neural populations

PubMed Central

Ahrens, Misha B.; Yuste, Rafael; Peterka, Darcy S.; Paninski, Liam

2017-01-01

Progress in modern neuroscience critically depends on our ability to observe the activity of large neuronal populations with cellular spatial and high temporal resolution. However, two bottlenecks constrain efforts towards fast imaging of large populations. First, the resulting large video data is challenging to analyze. Second, there is an explicit tradeoff between imaging speed, signal-to-noise, and field of view: with current recording technology we cannot image very large neuronal populations with simultaneously high spatial and temporal resolution. Here we describe multi-scale approaches for alleviating both of these bottlenecks. First, we show that spatial and temporal decimation techniques based on simple local averaging provide order-of-magnitude speedups in spatiotemporally demixing calcium video data into estimates of single-cell neural activity. Second, once the shapes of individual neurons have been identified at fine scale (e.g., after an initial phase of conventional imaging with standard temporal and spatial resolution), we find that the spatial/temporal resolution tradeoff shifts dramatically: after demixing we can accurately recover denoised fluorescence traces and deconvolved neural activity of each individual neuron from coarse scale data that has been spatially decimated by an order of magnitude. This offers a cheap method for compressing this large video data, and also implies that it is possible to either speed up imaging significantly, or to “zoom out” by a corresponding factor to image order-of-magnitude larger neuronal populations with minimal loss in accuracy or temporal resolution. PMID:28771570

Estimating the spatial distribution of wintering little brown bat populations in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Tinsley, Karl; Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Jennifer A. Szymanski,

2014-01-01

Depicting the spatial distribution of wildlife species is an important first step in developing management and conservation programs for particular species. Accurate representation of a species distribution is important for predicting the effects of climate change, land-use change, management activities, disease, and other landscape-level processes on wildlife populations. We developed models to estimate the spatial distribution of little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) wintering populations in the United States east of the 100th meridian, based on known hibernacula locations. From this data, we developed several scenarios of wintering population counts per county that incorporated uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the hibernacula as well as uncertainty in the size of the current little brown bat population. We assessed the variability in our results resulting from effects of uncertainty. Despite considerable uncertainty in the known locations of overwintering little brown bats in the eastern United States, we believe that models accurately depicting the effects of the uncertainty are useful for making management decisions as these models are a coherent organization of the best available information.

Population structure and covariate analysis based on pairwise microsatellite allele matching frequencies.

PubMed

Givens, Geof H; Ozaksoy, Isin

2007-01-01

We describe a general model for pairwise microsatellite allele matching probabilities. The model can be used for analysis of population substructure, and is particularly focused on relating genetic correlation to measurable covariates. The approach is intended for cases when the existence of subpopulations is uncertain and a priori assignment of samples to hypothesized subpopulations is difficult. Such a situation arises, for example, with western Arctic bowhead whales, where genetic samples are available only from a possibly mixed migratory assemblage. We estimate genetic structure associated with spatial, temporal, or other variables that may confound the detection of population structure. In the bowhead case, the model permits detection of genetic patterns associated with a temporally pulsed multi-population assemblage in the annual migration. Hypothesis tests for population substructure and for covariate effects can be carried out using permutation methods. Simulated and real examples illustrate the effectiveness and reliability of the approach and enable comparisons with other familiar approaches. Analysis of the bowhead data finds no evidence for two temporally pulsed subpopulations using the best available data, although a significant pattern found by other researchers using preliminary data is also confirmed here. Code in the R language is available from www.stat.colostate.edu/~geof/gammmp.html.

Temporal genetic population structure and interannual variation in migration behavior of Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clemens, Benjamin J.; Wyss, Lance A.; McCoun, Rebecca; Courter, Ian; Schwabe, Lawrence; Peery, Christopher; Schreck, Carl B.; Spice, Erin K.; Docker, Margaret F.

2017-01-01

Studies using neutral loci suggest that Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus, lack strong spatial genetic population structure. However, it is unknown whether temporal genetic population structure exists. We tested whether adult Pacific lamprey: (1) show temporal genetic population structure; and (2) migrate different distances between years. We non-lethally sampled lamprey for DNA in 2009 and 2010 and used eight microsatellite loci to test for genetic population structure. We used telemetry to record the migration behaviors of these fish. Lamprey were assignable to three moderately differentiated genetic clusters (FST = 0.16–0.24 for all pairwise comparisons): one cluster was composed of individuals from 2009, and the other two contained individuals from 2010. The FST value between years was 0.13 and between genetic clusters within 2010 was 0.20. A total of 372 (72.5%) fish were detected multiple times during their migrations. Most fish (69.9%) remained in the mainstem Willamette River; the remaining 30.1% migrated into tributaries. Eighty-two lamprey exhibited multiple back-and-forth movements among tributaries and the mainstem, which may indicate searching behaviors. All migration distances were significantly greater in 2010, when the amplitude of river discharge was greater. Our data suggest genetic structuring between and within years that may reflect different cohorts.

Disease dynamics during wildlife translocations: disruptions to the host population and potential consequences for transmission in desert tortoise contact networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Walde, Andrew D.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, S.; Hudson, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Wildlife managers consider animal translocation a means of increasing the viability of a local population. However, augmentation may disrupt existing resident disease dynamics and initiate an outbreak that would effectively offset any advantages the translocation may have achieved. This paper examines fundamental concepts of disease ecology and identifies the conditions that will increase the likelihood of a disease outbreak following translocation. We highlight the importance of susceptibility to infection, population size and population connectivity – a characteristic likely affected by translocation but not often considered in risk assessments – in estimating outbreak risk due to translocation. We then explore these features in a species of conservation concern often translocated in the presence of infectious disease, the Mojave Desert tortoise, and use data from experimental tortoise translocations to detect changes in population connectivity that may influence pathogen transmission. Preliminary analyses comparing contact networks inferred from spatial data at control and translocation plots and infection simulation results through these networks suggest increased outbreak risk following translocation due to dispersal-driven changes in contact frequency and network structure. We outline future research goals to test these concepts and aid managers in designing effective risk assessment and intervention strategies that will improve translocation success.

A Web-based graphical user interface for evidence-based decision making for health care allocations in rural areas

PubMed Central

Schuurman, Nadine; Leight, Margo; Berube, Myriam

2008-01-01

Background The creation of successful health policy and location of resources increasingly relies on evidence-based decision-making. The development of intuitive, accessible tools to analyse, display and disseminate spatial data potentially provides the basis for sound policy and resource allocation decisions. As health services are rationalized, the development of tools such graphical user interfaces (GUIs) is especially valuable at they assist decision makers in allocating resources such that the maximum number of people are served. GIS can used to develop GUIs that enable spatial decision making. Results We have created a Web-based GUI (wGUI) to assist health policy makers and administrators in the Canadian province of British Columbia make well-informed decisions about the location and allocation of time-sensitive service capacities in rural regions of the province. This tool integrates datasets for existing hospitals and services, regional populations and road networks to allow users to ascertain the percentage of population in any given service catchment who are served by a specific health service, or baskets of linked services. The wGUI allows policy makers to map trauma and obstetric services against rural populations within pre-specified travel distances, illustrating service capacity by region. Conclusion The wGUI can be used by health policy makers and administrators with little or no formal GIS training to visualize multiple health resource allocation scenarios. The GUI is poised to become a critical decision-making tool especially as evidence is increasingly required for distribution of health services. PMID:18793428

Using maximum entropy to predict suitable habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel in the Maryland Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Cara; Hilderbrand, Robert H.

2017-01-01

Species distribution modelling can be useful for the conservation of rare and endangered species. Freshwater mussel declines have thinned species ranges producing spatially fragmented distributions across large areas. Spatial fragmentation in combination with a complex life history and heterogeneous environment makes predictive modelling difficult.A machine learning approach (maximum entropy) was used to model occurrences and suitable habitat for the federally endangered dwarf wedgemussel, Alasmidonta heterodon, in Maryland's Coastal Plain catchments. Landscape-scale predictors (e.g. land cover, land use, soil characteristics, geology, flow characteristics, and climate) were used to predict the suitability of individual stream segments for A. heterodon.The best model contained variables at three scales: minimum elevation (segment scale), percentage Tertiary deposits, low intensity development, and woody wetlands (sub-catchment), and percentage low intensity development, pasture/hay agriculture, and average depth to the water table (catchment). Despite a very small sample size owing to the rarity of A. heterodon, cross-validated prediction accuracy was 91%.Most predicted suitable segments occur in catchments not known to contain A. heterodon, which provides opportunities for new discoveries or population restoration. These model predictions can guide surveys toward the streams with the best chance of containing the species or, alternatively, away from those streams with little chance of containing A. heterodon.Developed reaches had low predicted suitability for A. heterodon in the Coastal Plain. Urban and exurban sprawl continues to modify stream ecosystems in the region, underscoring the need to preserve existing populations and to discover and protect new populations.

Uncertainty in gridded CO 2 emissions estimates

DOE PAGES

Hogue, Susannah; Marland, Eric; Andres, Robert J.; ...

2016-05-19

We are interested in the spatial distribution of fossil-fuel-related emissions of CO 2 for both geochemical and geopolitical reasons, but it is important to understand the uncertainty that exists in spatially explicit emissions estimates. Working from one of the widely used gridded data sets of CO 2 emissions, we examine the elements of uncertainty, focusing on gridded data for the United States at the scale of 1° latitude by 1° longitude. Uncertainty is introduced in the magnitude of total United States emissions, the magnitude and location of large point sources, the magnitude and distribution of non-point sources, and from themore » use of proxy data to characterize emissions. For the United States, we develop estimates of the contribution of each component of uncertainty. At 1° resolution, in most grid cells, the largest contribution to uncertainty comes from how well the distribution of the proxy (in this case population density) represents the distribution of emissions. In other grid cells, the magnitude and location of large point sources make the major contribution to uncertainty. Uncertainty in population density can be important where a large gradient in population density occurs near a grid cell boundary. Uncertainty is strongly scale-dependent with uncertainty increasing as grid size decreases. In conclusion, uncertainty for our data set with 1° grid cells for the United States is typically on the order of ±150%, but this is perhaps not excessive in a data set where emissions per grid cell vary over 8 orders of magnitude.« less

Estimating Regions of Oceanographic Importance for Seabirds Using A-Spatial Data.

PubMed

Humphries, Grant Richard Woodrow

2015-01-01

Advances in GPS tracking technologies have allowed for rapid assessment of important oceanographic regions for seabirds. This allows us to understand seabird distributions, and the characteristics which determine the success of populations. In many cases, quality GPS tracking data may not be available; however, long term population monitoring data may exist. In this study, a method to infer important oceanographic regions for seabirds will be presented using breeding sooty shearwaters as a case study. This method combines a popular machine learning algorithm (generalized boosted regression modeling), geographic information systems, long-term ecological data and open access oceanographic datasets. Time series of chick size and harvest index data derived from a long term dataset of Maori 'muttonbirder' diaries were obtained and used as response variables in a gridded spatial model. It was found that areas of the sub-Antarctic water region best capture the variation in the chick size data. Oceanographic features including wind speed and charnock (a derived variable representing ocean surface roughness) came out as top predictor variables in these models. Previously collected GPS data demonstrates that these regions are used as "flyways" by sooty shearwaters during the breeding season. It is therefore likely that wind speeds in these flyways affect the ability of sooty shearwaters to provision for their chicks due to changes in flight dynamics. This approach was designed to utilize machine learning methodology but can also be implemented with other statistical algorithms. Furthermore, these methods can be applied to any long term time series of population data to identify important regions for a species of interest.

Exploring the small-scale spatial distribution of hypertension and its association to area deprivation based on health insurance claims in Northeastern Germany.

PubMed

Kauhl, B; Maier, W; Schweikart, J; Keste, A; Moskwyn, M

2018-01-10

Hypertension is one of the most frequently diagnosed chronic conditions in Germany. Targeted prevention strategies and allocation of general practitioners where they are needed most are necessary to prevent severe complications arising from high blood pressure. However, data on chronic diseases in Germany are mostly available through survey data, which do not only underestimate the actual prevalence but are also only available on coarse spatial scales. The discussion of including area deprivation for planning of healthcare is still relatively young in Germany, although previous studies have shown that area deprivation is associated with adverse health outcomes, irrespective of individual characteristics. The aim of this study is therefore to analyze the spatial distribution of hypertension at very fine geographic scales and to assess location-specific associations between hypertension, socio-demographic population characteristics and area deprivation based on health insurance claims of the AOK Nordost. To visualize the spatial distribution of hypertension prevalence at very fine geographic scales, we used the conditional autoregressive Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model. Geographically weighted regression modelling (GWR) was applied to analyze the location-specific association of hypertension to area deprivation and further socio-demographic population characteristics. The sex- and age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension was 33.1% in 2012 and varied widely across northeastern Germany. The main risk factors for hypertension were proportions of insurants aged 45-64, 65 and older, area deprivation and proportion of persons commuting to work outside their residential municipality. The GWR model revealed important regional variations in the strength of the examined associations. Area deprivation has only a significant and therefore direct influence in large parts of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. However, the spatially varying strength of the association between demographic variables and hypertension indicates that there also exists an indirect effect of area deprivation on the prevalence of hypertension. It can therefore be expected that persons ageing in deprived areas will be at greater risk of hypertension, irrespective of their individual characteristics. The future planning and allocation of primary healthcare in northeastern Germany would therefore greatly benefit from considering the effect of area deprivation.

Infant mortality evolution in Romania: perspectives from a country in transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burlea, A.-M.; Muntele, I.

2012-04-01

In the last two decades transition was a word used to describe the important mutations that have characterized social and economic structures in Romania. All the changes left their mark on every aspects of life including on population health status, and all modifications were reflected in the evolution of health indicators. Considered one of the most sensitive indicators of living conditions, population health literacy level and healthcare system efficiency infant mortality rate is a negative indicator which reflects the intensity of children deaths before their first anniversary. Based on the current statistical data collected at county level, this research aims to underline the existing spatial differences in Romania at county level, to identify spatial patterns, time trend and to point out the territories that need special attention and a more profound analysis for understanding the causes that are generating them. Using mathematical and statistical methods we have calculated infant mortality for a previous and available period of time (1990 - 2010) and identified a trend influenced by exogenous and endogenous factors. With the help of GIS techniques we have created cartographic material for allowing us an easier identification of spatial disparities. Following the global trend, Romania achieved significant progress in reduction infant mortality. From values that exceeded 26 ‰ at the beginning of the nineties this indicator has continued to diminish until 9.79 ‰ in 2010. But, with all the improvements, value is still double in compare with European Union average. Although characteristic for Romania is the general downward trend, at the county level there can be identified different types of evolution and different spatial pattern. Having the lowest economic development level in the country, Northeast and Southeast counties maintain high values for infant mortality rate. Positive examples are given by Bucharest and some central and western districts, all with socio-economic indicators above the national average. In this context, identification, monitoring and description of infant mortality rate spatial disparities are becoming key points for policy makers and stakeholders as first steps needed for finding the most suitable measures to reduce them, measures tailored for any administrative level in which they occur.

Zoogeomorphology in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, David R.

2018-02-01

The Anthropocene embodies the concept of human impacts on the natural environment, but disagreements exist as to when to identify its inception/starting date. In this paper I illustrate that regardless of the proposed starting date of the Anthropocene, important zoogeomorphic impacts were initiated at each of these proposed starting dates. Humans have profoundly altered geomorphic pathways through extinctions and the near-extirpation of native populations of animal species that strongly influenced hydrology and removal of surface sediment and through the introduction of populations of animals that bring to bear a suite of different geomorphic effects on environmental systems. Domestication of animals brought its own suite of zoogeomorphic implications. Introductions of exotic species, and the spread of feral species, often led to dramatic new geomorphic landscapes because of the absence of natural controls on population expansion. In the mountains of the western USA and elsewhere, the geomorphic actions of animals are being impacted by human-induced climate change. Climate change in some cases affects the spatial pattern and range of species, whereas in other cases it may lead to the extirpation of species with zoogeomorphic impacts.

Cyanide and the human brain: perspectives from a model of food (cassava) poisoning.

PubMed

Tshala-Katumbay, Desire D; Ngombe, Nadege N; Okitundu, Daniel; David, Larry; Westaway, Shawn K; Boivin, Michael J; Mumba, Ngoyi D; Banea, Jean-Pierre

2016-08-01

Threats by fundamentalist leaders to use chemical weapons have resulted in renewed interest in cyanide toxicity. Relevant insights may be gained from studies on cyanide mass intoxication in populations relying on cyanogenic cassava as the main source of food. In these populations, sublethal concentrations (up to 80 μmol/l) of cyanide in the blood are commonplace and lead to signs of acute toxicity. Long-term toxicity signs include a distinct and irreversible spastic paralysis, known as konzo, and cognition deficits, mainly in sequential processing (visual-spatial analysis) domains. Toxic culprits include cyanide (mitochondrial toxicant), thiocyanate (AMPA-receptor chaotropic cyanide metabolite), cyanate (protein-carbamoylating cyanide metabolite), and 2-iminothiazolidine-4-carboxylic acid (seizure inducer). Factors of susceptibility include younger age, female gender, protein-deficient diet, and, possibly, the gut functional metagenome. The existence of uniquely exposed and neurologically affected populations offers invaluable research opportunities to develop a comprehensive understanding of cyanide toxicity and test or validate point-of-care diagnostic tools and treatment options to be included in preparedness kits in response to cyanide-related threats. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Cyanide and the human brain: perspectives from a model of food (cassava) poisoning

PubMed Central

Tshala-Katumbay, Desire D.; Ngombe, Nadege N.; Okitundu, Daniel; David, Larry; Westaway, Shawn K.; Boivin, Michael J.; Mumba, Ngoyi D.; Banea, Jean-Pierre

2016-01-01

Threats by fundamentalist leaders to use chemical weapons have resulted in renewed interest in cyanide toxicity. Relevant insights may be gained from studies on cyanide mass intoxication in populations relying on cyanogenic cassava as the main source of food. In these populations, sublethal concentrations (up to 80 µmol/L) of cyanide in the blood are commonplace and lead to signs of acute toxicity. Long-term toxicity signs include a distinct and irreversible spastic paralysis, known as konzo, and cognition deficits, mainly in sequential processing (visual–spatial analysis) domains. Toxic culprits include cyanide (mitochondrial toxicant), thiocyanate (AMPA-receptor chaotropic cyanide metabolite), cyanate (protein-carbamoylating cyanide metabolite), and 2-iminothiazolidine-4-carboxylic acid (seizure inducer). Factors of susceptibility include younger age, female gender, protein-deficient diet, and, possibly, the gut functional metagenome. The existence of uniquely exposed and neurologically affected populations offers invaluable research opportunities to develop a comprehensive understanding of cyanide toxicity and test or validate point-of-care diagnostic tools and treatment options to be included in preparedness kits in response to cyanide-related threats. PMID:27450775

Two Populations of Sunspots: Differential Rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagovitsyn, Yu. A.; Pevtsov, A. A.; Osipova, A. A.

2018-03-01

To investigate the differential rotation of sunspot groups using the Greenwich data, we propose an approach based on a statistical analysis of the histograms of particular longitudinal velocities in different latitude intervals. The general statistical velocity distributions for all such intervals are shown to be described by two rather than one normal distribution, so that two fundamental rotation modes exist simultaneously: fast and slow. The differentiality of rotation for the modes is the same: the coefficient at sin2 in Faye's law is 2.87-2.88 deg/day, while the equatorial rotation rates differ significantly, 0.27 deg/day. On the other hand, an analysis of the longitudinal velocities for the previously revealed two differing populations of sunspot groups has shown that small short-lived groups (SSGs) are associated with the fast rotation mode, while large long-lived groups (LLGs) are associated with both fast and slow modes. The results obtained not only suggest a real physical difference between the two populations of sunspots but also give new empirical data for the development of a dynamo theory, in particular, for the theory of a spatially distributed dynamo.

Effect of small versus large clusters of fish school on the yield of a purse-seine small pelagic fishery including a marine protected area.

PubMed

Hieu, Nguyen Trong; Brochier, Timothée; Tri, Nguyen-Huu; Auger, Pierre; Brehmer, Patrice

2014-09-01

We consider a fishery model with two sites: (1) a marine protected area (MPA) where fishing is prohibited and (2) an area where the fish population is harvested. We assume that fish can migrate from MPA to fishing area at a very fast time scale and fish spatial organisation can change from small to large clusters of school at a fast time scale. The growth of the fish population and the catch are assumed to occur at a slow time scale. The complete model is a system of five ordinary differential equations with three time scales. We take advantage of the time scales using aggregation of variables methods to derive a reduced model governing the total fish density and fishing effort at the slow time scale. We analyze this aggregated model and show that under some conditions, there exists an equilibrium corresponding to a sustainable fishery. Our results suggest that in small pelagic fisheries the yield is maximum for a fish population distributed among both small and large clusters of school.

Linking movement and oviposition behaviour to spatial population distribution in the tree hole mosquito Ochlerotatus triseriatus.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M

2008-01-01

1. Researchers often use the spatial distribution of insect offspring as a measure of adult oviposition preferences, and then make conclusions about the consequences of these preferences for population growth and the relationship between life-history traits (e.g. oviposition preference and offspring performance). However, several processes other than oviposition preference can generate spatial patterns of offspring density (e.g. dispersal limitations, spatially heterogeneous mortality rates). Incorrectly assuming that offspring distributions reflect oviposition preferences may therefore compromise our ability to understand the mechanisms determining population distributions and the relationship between life-history traits. 2. The purpose of this study was to perform an empirical study at the whole-system scale to examine the movement and oviposition behaviours of the eastern tree hole mosquito Ochlerotatus triseriatus (Say) and test the importance of these behaviours in determining population distribution relative to other mechanisms. 3. A mark-release-recapture experiment was performed to distinguish among the following alternative hypotheses that may explain a previously observed aggregated distribution of tree hole mosquito offspring: (H(1)) mosquitoes prefer habitats with particular vegetation characteristics and these preferences determine the distribution of their offspring; (H(2)) mosquitoes distribute their eggs randomly or evenly throughout their environment, but spatial differences in developmental success generate an aggregated pattern of larval density; (H(3)) mosquitoes randomly colonize habitats, but have limited dispersal capability causing them to distribute offspring where founder populations were established; (H(4)) wind or other environmental factors may lead to passive aggregation, or spatial heterogeneity in adult mortality (H(5)), rather than dispersal, generates clumped offspring distributions. 4. Results indicate that the distribution of tree hole mosquito larvae is determined in part by adult habitat selection (H(1)), but do not exclude additional effects from passive aggregation (H(4)), or spatial patterns in adult mortality (H(5)). 5. This research illustrates the importance of studying oviposition behaviour at the population scale to better evaluate its relative importance in determining population distribution and dynamics. Moreover, this study demonstrates the importance of linking behavioural and population dynamics for understanding evolutionary relationships among life-history traits (e.g. preference and offspring performance) and predicting when behaviour will be important in determining population phenomena.

A spatial mark–resight model augmented with telemetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sollmann, Rachel; Gardner, Beth; Parsons, Arielle W.; Stocking, Jessica J.; McClintock, Brett T.; Simons, Theodore R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; O’Connell, Allan F.

2013-01-01

Abundance and population density are fundamental pieces of information for population ecology and species conservation, but they are difficult to estimate for rare and elusive species. Mark-resight models are popular for estimating population abundance because they are less invasive and expensive than traditional mark-recapture. However, density estimation using mark-resight is difficult because the area sampled must be explicitly defined, historically using ad-hoc approaches. We develop a spatial mark-resight model for estimating population density that combines spatial resighting data and telemetry data. Incorporating telemetry data allows us to inform model parameters related to movement and individual location. Our model also allows 2. The model presented here will have widespread utility in future applications, especially for species that are not naturally marked.

SamuROI, a Python-Based Software Tool for Visualization and Analysis of Dynamic Time Series Imaging at Multiple Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Rueckl, Martin; Lenzi, Stephen C; Moreno-Velasquez, Laura; Parthier, Daniel; Schmitz, Dietmar; Ruediger, Sten; Johenning, Friedrich W

2017-01-01

The measurement of activity in vivo and in vitro has shifted from electrical to optical methods. While the indicators for imaging activity have improved significantly over the last decade, tools for analysing optical data have not kept pace. Most available analysis tools are limited in their flexibility and applicability to datasets obtained at different spatial scales. Here, we present SamuROI (Structured analysis of multiple user-defined ROIs), an open source Python-based analysis environment for imaging data. SamuROI simplifies exploratory analysis and visualization of image series of fluorescence changes in complex structures over time and is readily applicable at different spatial scales. In this paper, we show the utility of SamuROI in Ca 2+ -imaging based applications at three spatial scales: the micro-scale (i.e., sub-cellular compartments including cell bodies, dendrites and spines); the meso-scale, (i.e., whole cell and population imaging with single-cell resolution); and the macro-scale (i.e., imaging of changes in bulk fluorescence in large brain areas, without cellular resolution). The software described here provides a graphical user interface for intuitive data exploration and region of interest (ROI) management that can be used interactively within Jupyter Notebook: a publicly available interactive Python platform that allows simple integration of our software with existing tools for automated ROI generation and post-processing, as well as custom analysis pipelines. SamuROI software, source code and installation instructions are publicly available on GitHub and documentation is available online. SamuROI reduces the energy barrier for manual exploration and semi-automated analysis of spatially complex Ca 2+ imaging datasets, particularly when these have been acquired at different spatial scales.

SamuROI, a Python-Based Software Tool for Visualization and Analysis of Dynamic Time Series Imaging at Multiple Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Rueckl, Martin; Lenzi, Stephen C.; Moreno-Velasquez, Laura; Parthier, Daniel; Schmitz, Dietmar; Ruediger, Sten; Johenning, Friedrich W.

2017-01-01

The measurement of activity in vivo and in vitro has shifted from electrical to optical methods. While the indicators for imaging activity have improved significantly over the last decade, tools for analysing optical data have not kept pace. Most available analysis tools are limited in their flexibility and applicability to datasets obtained at different spatial scales. Here, we present SamuROI (Structured analysis of multiple user-defined ROIs), an open source Python-based analysis environment for imaging data. SamuROI simplifies exploratory analysis and visualization of image series of fluorescence changes in complex structures over time and is readily applicable at different spatial scales. In this paper, we show the utility of SamuROI in Ca2+-imaging based applications at three spatial scales: the micro-scale (i.e., sub-cellular compartments including cell bodies, dendrites and spines); the meso-scale, (i.e., whole cell and population imaging with single-cell resolution); and the macro-scale (i.e., imaging of changes in bulk fluorescence in large brain areas, without cellular resolution). The software described here provides a graphical user interface for intuitive data exploration and region of interest (ROI) management that can be used interactively within Jupyter Notebook: a publicly available interactive Python platform that allows simple integration of our software with existing tools for automated ROI generation and post-processing, as well as custom analysis pipelines. SamuROI software, source code and installation instructions are publicly available on GitHub and documentation is available online. SamuROI reduces the energy barrier for manual exploration and semi-automated analysis of spatially complex Ca2+ imaging datasets, particularly when these have been acquired at different spatial scales. PMID:28706482

Multi-approaches analysis reveals local adaptation in the emmer wheat (Triticum dicoccoides) at macro- but not micro-geographical scale.

PubMed

Volis, Sergei; Ormanbekova, Danara; Yermekbayev, Kanat; Song, Minshu; Shulgina, Irina

2015-01-01

Detecting local adaptation and its spatial scale is one of the most important questions of evolutionary biology. However, recognition of the effect of local selection can be challenging when there is considerable environmental variation across the distance at the whole species range. We analyzed patterns of local adaptation in emmer wheat, Triticum dicoccoides, at two spatial scales, small (inter-population distance less than one km) and large (inter-population distance more than 50 km) using several approaches. Plants originating from four distinct habitats at two geographic scales (cold edge, arid edge and two topographically dissimilar core locations) were reciprocally transplanted and their success over time was measured as 1) lifetime fitness in a year of planting, and 2) population growth four years after planting. In addition, we analyzed molecular (SSR) and quantitative trait variation and calculated the QST/FST ratio. No home advantage was detected at the small spatial scale. At the large spatial scale, home advantage was detected for the core population and the cold edge population in the year of introduction via measuring life-time plant performance. However, superior performance of the arid edge population in its own environment was evident only after several generations via measuring experimental population growth rate through genotyping with SSRs allowing counting the number of plants and seeds per introduced genotype per site. These results highlight the importance of multi-generation surveys of population growth rate in local adaptation testing. Despite predominant self-fertilization of T. dicoccoides and the associated high degree of structuring of genetic variation, the results of the QST - FST comparison were in general agreement with the pattern of local adaptation at the two spatial scales detected by reciprocal transplanting.

SPATIAL AGGREGATION IN A FOREST FLOOR INSECT DEPENDS ON SEASONAL CONGREGATION AND SCATTERING EFFECTS OF PREDATORS

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial aggregations arising from gregarious behavior are common in nature and have important implications for population dynamics, community stability, and conservation. However, the translation of aggregation behaviors into emergent properties of populations and communities de...

CONSTRUCTING, PERTURBATION ANALYSIIS AND TESTING OF A MULTI-HABITAT PERIODIC MATRIX POPULATION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We present a matrix model that explicitly incorporates spatial habitat structure and seasonality and discuss preliminary results from a landscape level experimental test. Ecological risk to populations is often modeled without explicit treatment of spatially or temporally distri...

SPATIAL EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT: COMMON LOONS AND MERCURY AS A CASE STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

SPATIAL SCALE OF AUTOCORRELATION IN WISCONSIN FROG AND TOAD SURVEY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The degree to which local population dynamics are correlated with nearby sites has important implications for metapopulation dynamics and landscape management. Spatially extensive monitoring data can be used to evaluate large-scale population dynamic processes. Our goals in this ...

Bamboo-Dominated Forests of the Southwest Amazon: Detection, Spatial Extent, Life Cycle Length and Flowering Waves

PubMed Central

de Carvalho, Anelena L.; Nelson, Bruce W.; Bianchini, Milton C.; Plagnol, Daniela; Kuplich, Tatiana M.; Daly, Douglas C.

2013-01-01

We map the extent, infer the life-cycle length and describe spatial and temporal patterns of flowering of sarmentose bamboos (Guadua spp) in upland forests of the southwest Amazon. We first examine the spectra and the spectral separation of forests with different bamboo life stages. False-color composites from orbital sensors going back to 1975 are capable of distinguishing life stages. These woody bamboos flower produce massive quantities of seeds and then die. Life stage is synchronized, forming a single cohort within each population. Bamboo dominates at least 161,500 km2 of forest, coincident with an area of recent or ongoing tectonic uplift, rapid mechanical erosion and poorly drained soils rich in exchangeable cations. Each bamboo population is confined to a single spatially continuous patch or to a core patch with small outliers. Using spatial congruence between pairs of mature-stage maps from different years, we estimate an average life cycle of 27–28 y. It is now possible to predict exactly where and approximately when new bamboo mortality events will occur. We also map 74 bamboo populations that flowered between 2001 and 2008 over the entire domain of bamboo-dominated forest. Population size averaged 330 km2. Flowering events of these populations are temporally and/or spatially separated, restricting or preventing gene exchange. Nonetheless, adjacent populations flower closer in time than expected by chance, forming flowering waves. This may be a consequence of allochronic divergence from fewer ancestral populations and suggests a long history of widespread bamboo in the southwest Amazon. PMID:23359438