Identifying optimal threshold statistics for elimination of hookworm using a stochastic simulation model.

PubMed

Truscott, James E; Werkman, Marleen; Wright, James E; Farrell, Sam H; Sarkar, Rajiv; Ásbjörnsdóttir, Kristjana; Anderson, Roy M

2017-06-30

There is an increased focus on whether mass drug administration (MDA) programmes alone can interrupt the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH). Mathematical models can be used to model these interventions and are increasingly being implemented to inform investigators about expected trial outcome and the choice of optimum study design. One key factor is the choice of threshold for detecting elimination. However, there are currently no thresholds defined for STH regarding breaking transmission. We develop a simulation of an elimination study, based on the DeWorm3 project, using an individual-based stochastic disease transmission model in conjunction with models of MDA, sampling, diagnostics and the construction of study clusters. The simulation is then used to analyse the relationship between the study end-point elimination threshold and whether elimination is achieved in the long term within the model. We analyse the quality of a range of statistics in terms of the positive predictive values (PPV) and how they depend on a range of covariates, including threshold values, baseline prevalence, measurement time point and how clusters are constructed. End-point infection prevalence performs well in discriminating between villages that achieve interruption of transmission and those that do not, although the quality of the threshold is sensitive to baseline prevalence and threshold value. Optimal post-treatment prevalence threshold value for determining elimination is in the range 2% or less when the baseline prevalence range is broad. For multiple clusters of communities, both the probability of elimination and the ability of thresholds to detect it are strongly dependent on the size of the cluster and the size distribution of the constituent communities. Number of communities in a cluster is a key indicator of probability of elimination and PPV. Extending the time, post-study endpoint, at which the threshold statistic is measured improves PPV value in discriminating between eliminating clusters and those that bounce back. The probability of elimination and PPV are very sensitive to baseline prevalence for individual communities. However, most studies and programmes are constructed on the basis of clusters. Since elimination occurs within smaller population sub-units, the construction of clusters introduces new sensitivities for elimination threshold values to cluster size and the underlying population structure. Study simulation offers an opportunity to investigate key sources of sensitivity for elimination studies and programme designs in advance and to tailor interventions to prevailing local or national conditions.

Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

PubMed Central

Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

2012-01-01

Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

PubMed

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J; Barton, Jason J S

2012-01-01

There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

Plasticity in reproduction and growth among 52 range-wide populations of a Mediterranean conifer: adaptive responses to environmental stress.

PubMed

Santos-Del-Blanco, L; Bonser, S P; Valladares, F; Chambel, M R; Climent, J

2013-09-01

A plastic response towards enhanced reproduction is expected in stressful environments, but it is assumed to trade off against vegetative growth and efficiency in the use of available resources deployed in reproduction [reproductive efficiency (RE)]. Evidence supporting this expectation is scarce for plants, particularly for long-lived species. Forest trees such as Mediterranean pines provide ideal models to study the adaptive value of allocation to reproduction vs. vegetative growth given their among-population differentiation for adaptive traits and their remarkable capacity to cope with dry and low-fertility environments. We studied 52 range-wide Pinus halepensis populations planted into two environmentally contrasting sites during their initial reproductive stage. We investigated the effect of site, population and their interaction on vegetative growth, threshold size for female reproduction, reproductive-vegetative size relationships and RE. We quantified correlations among traits and environmental variables to identify allocation trade-offs and ecotypic trends. Genetic variation for plasticity was high for vegetative growth, whereas it was nonsignificant for reproduction. Size-corrected reproduction was enhanced in the more stressful site supporting the expectation for adverse conditions to elicit plastic responses in reproductive allometry. However, RE was unrelated with early reproductive investment. Our results followed theoretical predictions and support that phenotypic plasticity for reproduction is adaptive under stressful environments. Considering expectations of increased drought in the Mediterranean, we hypothesize that phenotypic plasticity together with natural selection on reproductive traits will play a relevant role in the future adaptation of forest tree species. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Altering gender role expectations: effects on pain tolerance, pain threshold, and pain ratings.

PubMed

Robinson, Michael E; Gagnon, Christine M; Riley, Joseph L; Price, Donald D

2003-06-01

The literature demonstrating sex differences in pain is sizable. Most explanations for these differences have focused on biologic mechanisms, and only a few studies have examined social learning. The purpose of this study was to examine the contribution of gender-role stereotypes to sex differences in pain. This study used experimental manipulation of gender-role expectations for men and women. One hundred twenty students participated in the cold pressor task. Before the pain task, participants were given 1 of 3 instructional sets: no expectation, 30-second performance expectation, or a 90-second performance expectation. Pain ratings, threshold, and tolerance were recorded. Significant sex differences in the "no expectation" condition for pain tolerance (t = 2.32, df = 38, P <.05) and post-cold pressor pain ratings (t = 2.6, df = 37, P <.05) were found. Women had briefer tolerance times and higher post-cold pressor ratings than men. When given gender-specific tolerance expectations, men and women did not differ in their pain tolerance, pain threshold, or pain ratings. This is the first empirical study to show that manipulation of expectations alters sex differences in laboratory pain.

Low-dose chest computed tomography for lung cancer screening among Hodgkin lymphoma survivors: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Wattson, Daniel A; Hunink, M G Myriam; DiPiro, Pamela J; Das, Prajnan; Hodgson, David C; Mauch, Peter M; Ng, Andrea K

2014-10-01

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors face an increased risk of treatment-related lung cancer. Screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) may allow detection of early stage, resectable cancers. We developed a Markov decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness model to estimate the merits of annual LDCT screening among HL survivors. Population databases and HL-specific literature informed key model parameters, including lung cancer rates and stage distribution, cause-specific survival estimates, and utilities. Relative risks accounted for radiation therapy (RT) technique, smoking status (>10 pack-years or current smokers vs not), age at HL diagnosis, time from HL treatment, and excess radiation from LDCTs. LDCT assumptions, including expected stage-shift, false-positive rates, and likely additional workup were derived from the National Lung Screening Trial and preliminary results from an internal phase 2 protocol that performed annual LDCTs in 53 HL survivors. We assumed a 3% discount rate and a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Annual LDCT screening was cost effective for all smokers. A male smoker treated with mantle RT at age 25 achieved maximum QALYs by initiating screening 12 years post-HL, with a life expectancy benefit of 2.1 months and an incremental cost of $34,841/QALY. Among nonsmokers, annual screening produced a QALY benefit in some cases, but the incremental cost was not below the WTP threshold for any patient subsets. As age at HL diagnosis increased, earlier initiation of screening improved outcomes. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates and expected stage-shift from screening. HL survivors are an important high-risk population that may benefit from screening, especially those treated in the past with large radiation fields including mantle or involved-field RT. Screening may be cost effective for all smokers but possibly not for nonsmokers despite a small life expectancy benefit. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions.

PubMed

Islam, Muhammad Saiful; Chaussalet, Thierry J; Koizumi, Naoru

2017-02-01

Identification of 'cut-points' or thresholds of climate factors would play a crucial role in alerting risks of climate change and providing guidance to policymakers. This study investigated a 'Climate Threshold' for emergency hospital admissions of chronic lower respiratory diseases by using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We analysed a unique longitudinal dataset (10 years, 2000-2009) on emergency hospital admissions, climate, and pollution factors for the Greater London. Our study extends existing work on this topic by considering non-linearity, lag effects between climate factors and disease exposure within the DLNM model considering B-spline as smoothing technique. The final model also considered natural cubic splines of time since exposure and 'day of the week' as confounding factors. The results of DLNM indicated a significant improvement in model fitting compared to a typical GLM model. The final model identified the thresholds of several climate factors including: high temperature (≥27°C), low relative humidity (≤ 40%), high Pm10 level (≥70-µg/m 3 ), low wind speed (≤ 2 knots) and high rainfall (≥30mm). Beyond the threshold values, a significantly higher number of emergency admissions due to lower respiratory problems would be expected within the following 2-3 days after the climate shift in the Greater London. The approach will be useful to initiate 'region and disease specific' climate mitigation plans. It will help identify spatial hot spots and the most sensitive areas and population due to climate change, and will eventually lead towards a diversified health warning system tailored to specific climate zones and populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Incorporating uncertainty of management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models.

PubMed

Salomon, Yacov; McCarthy, Michael A; Taylor, Peter; Wintle, Brendan A

2013-02-01

The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental-management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population-management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost-efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on understanding the distributional characteristics of such uncertainty. Our approach provides a tool to improve decision making. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Prenatal exposure of Canadian children to polychlorinated biphenyls and mercury.

PubMed

Muckle, G; Dewailly, E; Ayotte, P

1998-01-01

This article documents the exposure to environmental contaminants within sub-groups of the Canadian population who are considered to be at risk as a result of the food they eat. We measured the concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and mercury in the blood drawn from the umbilical cords of newborns in various Aboriginal communities, in a coastal community and in the general population. Average concentrations of Aroclor 1260 ranged between 0.3 and 2.0 micrograms/L and were clearly highest among the Inuit of Nunavik and Baffin Island and among the Montagnais of Quebec. In these groups, we found contaminant levels in the blood of newborns that exceed the threshold beyond which cognitive impairments are expected to result. Average concentrations of mercury ranged between 1.0 and 14.2 micrograms/L; the Inuit of Nunavik and the NWT exhibited the highest exposure levels. A portion of the Nunavik and NWT Inuit had concentrations beyond the critical threshold for the appearance of neurological consequences. The variations in exposure levels resulted from the different nutritional practices of these Canadian sub-groups.

Body size and meta-community structure: the allometric scaling of parasitic worm communities in their mammalian hosts.

PubMed

DE Leo, Giulio A; Dobson, Andrew P; Gatto, Marino

2016-06-01

In this paper we derive from first principles the expected body sizes of the parasite communities that can coexist in a mammal of given body size. We use a mixture of mathematical models and known allometric relationships to examine whether host and parasite life histories constrain the diversity of parasite species that can coexist in the population of any host species. The model consists of one differential equation for each parasite species and a single density-dependent nonlinear equation for the affected host under the assumption of exploitation competition. We derive threshold conditions for the coexistence and competitive exclusion of parasite species using invasion criteria and stability analysis of the resulting equilibria. These results are then used to evaluate the range of parasites species that can invade and establish in a target host and identify the 'optimal' size of a parasite species for a host of a given body size; 'optimal' is defined as the body size of a parasite species that cannot be outcompeted by any other parasite species. The expected distributions of parasites body sizes in hosts of different sizes are then compared with those observed in empirical studies. Our analysis predicts the relative abundance of parasites of different size that establish in the host and suggests that increasing the ratio of parasite body size to host body size above a minimum threshold increases the persistence of the parasite population.

On the renewal risk model under a threshold strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yinghui; Wang, Guojing; Yuen, Kam C.

2009-08-01

In this paper, we consider the renewal risk process under a threshold dividend payment strategy. For this model, the expected discounted dividend payments and the Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty function are investigated. Integral equations, integro-differential equations and some closed form expressions for them are derived. When the claims are exponentially distributed, it is verified that the expected penalty of the deficit at ruin is proportional to the ruin probability.

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; Ahn, E. J.; Allard, D.; Allekotte, I.; Allen, J.; Alvarez Castillo, J.; Alvarez-Muñiz, J.; Ambrosio, M.; Aminaei, A.; Anchordoqui, L.; Andringa, S.; Antičić, T.; Anzalone, A.; Aramo, C.; Arganda, E.; Arisaka, K.; Arqueros, F.; Asorey, H.; Assis, P.; Aublin, J.; Ave, M.; Avenier, M.; Avila, G.; Bäcker, T.; Badagnani, D.; Balzer, M.; Barber, K. B.; Barbosa, A. F.; Bardenet, R.; Barroso, S. L. C.; Baughman, B.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker, B. R.; Becker, K. H.; Bellétoile, A.; Bellido, J. A.; Berat, C.; Bergmann, T.; Bertou, X.; Biermann, P. L.; Billoir, P.; Blanco, F.; Blanco, M.; Bleve, C.; Blümer, H.; Boháčová, M.; Boncioli, D.; Bonifazi, C.; Bonino, R.; Borodai, N.; Brack, J.; Brogueira, P.; Brown, W. C.; Bruijn, R.; Buchholz, P.; Bueno, A.; Burton, R. E.; Busca, N. G.; Caballero-Mora, K. S.; Caramete, L.; Caruso, R.; Castellina, A.; Catalano, O.; Cataldi, G.; Cazon, L.; Cester, R.; Chauvin, J.; Chiavassa, A.; Chinellato, J. A.; Chou, A.; Chudoba, J.; Clay, R. W.; Colombo, E.; Coluccia, M. R.; Conceição, R.; Contreras, F.; Cook, H.; Cooper, M. J.; Coppens, J.; Cordier, A.; Cotti, U.; Coutu, S.; Covault, C. E.; Creusot, A.; Criss, A.; Cronin, J.; Curutiu, A.; Dagoret-Campagne, S.; Dallier, R.; Dasso, S.; Daumiller, K.; Dawson, B. R.; de Almeida, R. M.; De Domenico, M.; De Donato, C.; de Jong, S. J.; De La Vega, G.; de Mello Junior, W. J. M.; de Mello Neto, J. R. T.; De Mitri, I.; de Souza, V.; de Vries, K. D.; Decerprit, G.; del Peral, L.; Deligny, O.; Della Selva, A.; Dembinski, H.; Denkiewicz, A.; Di Giulio, C.; Diaz, J. C.; Díaz Castro, M. L.; Diep, P. N.; Dobrigkeit, C.; D'Olivo, J. C.; Dong, P. N.; Dorofeev, A.; dos Anjos, J. C.; Dova, M. T.; D'Urso, D.; Dutan, I.; Ebr, J.; Engel, R.; Erdmann, M.; Escobar, C. O.; Etchegoyen, A.; Facal San Luis, P.; Falcke, H.; Farrar, G.; Fauth, A. C.; Fazzini, N.; Ferguson, A. P.; Ferrero, A.; Fick, B.; Filevich, A.; Filipčič, A.; Fleck, I.; Fliescher, S.; Fracchiolla, C. E.; Fraenkel, E. D.; Fröhlich, U.; Fuchs, B.; Fulgione, W.; Gamarra, R. F.; Gambetta, S.; García, B.; García Gámez, D.; Garcia-Pinto, D.; Garrido, X.; Gascon, A.; Gelmini, G.; Gemmeke, H.; Gesterling, K.; Ghia, P. L.; Giaccari, U.; Giller, M.; Glass, H.; Gold, M. S.; Golup, G.; Gomez Albarracin, F.; Gómez Berisso, M.; Gonçalves, P.; Gonzalez, D.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Gookin, B.; Góra, D.; Gorgi, A.; Gouffon, P.; Gozzini, S. R.; Grashorn, E.; Grebe, S.; Grigat, M.; Grillo, A. F.; Guardincerri, Y.; Guarino, F.; Guedes, G. P.; Hague, J. D.; Hansen, P.; Harari, D.; Harmsma, S.; Harton, J. L.; Haungs, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heck, D.; Herve, A. E.; Hojvat, C.; Holmes, V. C.; Homola, P.; Hörandel, J. R.; Horneffer, A.; Hrabovský, M.; Huege, T.; Insolia, A.; Ionita, F.; Italiano, A.; Jiraskova, S.; Kadija, K.; Kaducak, M.; Kampert, K. H.; Karhan, P.; Karova, T.; Kasper, P.; Kégl, B.; Keilhauer, B.; Keivani, A.; Kelley, J. L.; Kemp, E.; Kieckhafer, R. M.; Klages, H. O.; Kleifges, M.; Kleinfeller, J.; Knapp, J.; Koang, D.-H.; Kotera, K.; Krohm, N.; Krömer, O.; Kruppke-Hansen, D.; Kuehn, F.; Kuempel, D.; Kulbartz, J. K.; Kunka, N.; La Rosa, G.; Lachaud, C.; Lautridou, P.; Leão, M. S. A. B.; Lebrun, D.; Lebrun, P.; Leigui de Oliveira, M. A.; Lemiere, A.; Letessier-Selvon, A.; Lhenry-Yvon, I.; Link, K.; López, R.; Lopez Agüera, A.; Louedec, K.; Lozano Bahilo, J.; Lucero, A.; Ludwig, M.; Lyberis, H.; Maccarone, M. C.; Macolino, C.; Maldera, S.; Mandat, D.; Mantsch, P.; Mariazzi, A. G.; Marin, V.; Maris, I. C.; Marquez Falcon, H. R.; Marsella, G.; Martello, D.; Martin, L.; Martínez Bravo, O.; Mathes, H. J.; Matthews, J.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthiae, G.; Maurizio, D.; Mazur, P. O.; McEwen, M.; Medina-Tanco, G.; Melissas, M.; Melo, D.; Menichetti, E.; Menshikov, A.; Meurer, C.; Mičanović, S.; Micheletti, M. I.; Miller, W.; Miramonti, L.; Mollerach, S.; Monasor, M.; Monnier Ragaigne, D.; Montanet, F.; Morales, B.; Morello, C.; Moreno, E.; Moreno, J. C.; Morris, C.; Mostafá, M.; Mueller, S.; Muller, M. A.; Münchmeyer, M.; Mussa, R.; Navarra, G.; Navarro, J. L.; Navas, S.; Necesal, P.; Nellen, L.; Nhung, P. T.; Nierstenhoefer, N.; Nitz, D.; Nosek, D.; Nožka, L.; Nyklicek, M.; Oehlschläger, J.; Olinto, A.; Oliva, P.; Olmos-Gilbaja, V. M.; Ortiz, M.; Pacheco, N.; Pakk Selmi-Dei, D.; Palatka, M.; Pallotta, J.; Palmieri, N.; Parente, G.; Parizot, E.; Parra, A.; Parrisius, J.; Parsons, R. D.; Pastor, S.; Paul, T.; Pavlidou, V.; Payet, K.; Pech, M.; Peķala, J.; Pelayo, R.; Pepe, I. M.; Perrone, L.; Pesce, R.; Petermann, E.; Petrera, S.; Petrinca, P.; Petrolini, A.; Petrov, Y.; Petrovic, J.; Pfendner, C.; Phan, N.; Piegaia, R.; Pierog, T.; Pimenta, M.; Pirronello, V.; Platino, M.; Ponce, V. H.; Pontz, M.; Privitera, P.; Prouza, M.; Quel, E. J.; Rautenberg, J.; Ravel, O.; Ravignani, D.; Revenu, B.; Ridky, J.; Riggi, S.; Risse, M.; Ristori, P.; Rivera, H.; Rivière, C.; Rizi, V.; Robledo, C.; Rodriguez, G.; Rodriguez Martino, J.; Rodriguez Rojo, J.; Rodriguez-Cabo, I.; Rodríguez-Frías, M. D.; Ros, G.; Rosado, J.; Rossler, T.; Roth, M.; Rouillé-d'Orfeuil, B.; Roulet, E.; Rovero, A. C.; Salamida, F.; Salazar, H.; Salina, G.; Sánchez, F.; Santander, M.; Santo, C. E.; Santos, E.; Santos, E. M.; Sarazin, F.; Sarkar, S.; Sato, R.; Scharf, N.; Scherini, V.; Schieler, H.; Schiffer, P.; Schmidt, A.; Schmidt, F.; Schmidt, T.; Scholten, O.; Schoorlemmer, H.; Schovancova, J.; Schovánek, P.; Schroeder, F.; Schulte, S.; Schüssler, F.; Schuster, D.; Sciutto, S. J.; Scuderi, M.; Segreto, A.; Settimo, M.; Shadkam, A.; Shellard, R. C.; Sidelnik, I.; Sigl, G.; Śmiałkowski, A.; Šmída, R.; Snow, G. R.; Sommers, P.; Sorokin, J.; Spinka, H.; Squartini, R.; Stapleton, J.; Stasielak, J.; Stephan, M.; Strazzeri, E.; Stutz, A.; Suarez, F.; Suomijärvi, T.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Šuša, T.; Sutherland, M. S.; Swain, J.; Szadkowski, Z.; Tamashiro, A.; Tapia, A.; Tarutina, T.; Taşcău, O.; Tcaciuc, R.; Tcherniakhovski, D.; Tegolo, D.; Thao, N. T.; Thomas, D.; Tiffenberg, J.; Timmermans, C.; Tiwari, D. K.; Tkaczyk, W.; Todero Peixoto, C. J.; Tomé, B.; Tonachini, A.; Travnicek, P.; Tridapalli, D. B.; Tristram, G.; Trovato, E.; Tueros, M.; Ulrich, R.; Unger, M.; Urban, M.; Valdés Galicia, J. F.; Valiño, I.; Valore, L.; van den Berg, A. M.; Vargas Cárdenas, B.; Vázquez, J. R.; Vázquez, R. A.; Veberič, D.; Venters, T.; Verzi, V.; Videla, M.; Villaseñor, L.; Wahlberg, H.; Wahrlich, P.; Wainberg, O.; Warner, D.; Watson, A. A.; Weidenhaupt, K.; Weindl, A.; Whelan, B. J.; Wieczorek, G.; Wiencke, L.; Wilczyńska, B.; Wilczyński, H.; Will, M.; Williams, C.; Winchen, T.; Winders, L.; Winnick, M. G.; Wommer, M.; Wundheiler, B.; Yamamoto, T.; Younk, P.; Yuan, G.; Yushkov, A.; Zamorano, B.; Zas, E.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zavrtanik, M.; Zaw, I.; Zepeda, A.; Ziolkowski, M.; Pierre Auger Collaboration

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, 6 × 10 19 eV. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than 3.1° from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the Véron-Cetty and Véron 12th catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is 38-6+7%, compared with 21% expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of 69-13+11%. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation.

48 CFR 1436.602-5 - Short selection processes for contracts not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... for contracts not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. 1436.602-5 Section 1436.602-5... for contracts not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. At each occurrence, CO approval...-engineer contracts not expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. ...

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Clark, Joseph D.; Chandler, Richard B.

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years () was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when , suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

PubMed

Laufenberg, Jared S; Clark, Joseph D; Chandler, Richard B

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text]) was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero, One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis

PubMed Central

Dubey, Manisha

2015-01-01

Objectives Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover. Methods We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981–2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India’s 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover. Findings India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women). Conclusions For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1–59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early. PMID:26683617

Comparison of Intrinsic Rate of Different House Fly Densities in a Simulated Condition: A Prediction for House Fly Population and Control Threshold.

PubMed

Ong, Song-Quan; Ahmad, Hamdan; Jaal, Zairi; Rus, Adanan; Fadzlah, Fadhlina Hazwani Mohd

2017-01-01

Determining the control threshold for a pest is common prior to initiating a pest control program; however, previous studies related to the house fly control threshold for a poultry farm are insufficient for determining such a threshold. This study aimed to predict the population changes of house fly population by comparing the intrinsic rate of increase (r m ) for different house fly densities in a simulated system. This study first defined the knee points of a known population growth curve as a control threshold by comparing the r m of five densities of house flies in a simulated condition. Later, to understand the interactions between the larval and adult populations, the correlation between larval and adult capacity rate (r c ) was studied. The r m values of 300- and 500-fly densities were significantly higher compared with the r m values at densities of 50 and 100 flies. This result indicated their representative indices as candidates for a control threshold. The r c of larval and adult populations were negatively correlated with densities of fewer than 300 flies; this implicated adult populations with fewer than 300 flies as declining while the larval population was growing; therefore, control approaches should focus on the immature stages. The results in the present study suggest a control threshold for house fly populations. Future works should focus on calibrating the threshold indices in field conditions. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Animal Population Threshold Level... Subpart JJ of Part 98—Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report...,200 Swine 34,100 Poultry: Layers 723,600 Broilers 38,160,000 Turkeys 7,710,000 1 The threshold head...

Addressing the Human Resources for Health crisis in countries: How far have we gone? What can we expect to achieve by 2015?

PubMed

Dayrit, Manuel M; Dolea, Carmen; Dreesch, Norbert

2011-06-01

The World Health Report 2006 identified 57 countries world-wide whose health worker to population density fell below a critical threshold of 2.3 per 1,000 population. This meant that below this critical threshold, a country could not provide the basic health services to its population, defined here as 80% immunization coverage and 80% skilled birth attendance at delivery. Of the 57 countries, 36 are located in Africa. This article reviews the progress countries have made in addressing their health workforce crisis. It cites 3 of the most recent global studies and the indicators used to measure progress. It also features the experiences of 8 countries, namely Malawi, Peru, Ethiopia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Zambia, Mali. Their situations provide a diverse picture of country efforts, challenges, and successes. The article asks the question of whether the target of 25% reduction in the number of crisis countries can be achieved by 2015. This was a goal set by the World Health Assembly in 2008. While the authors wish to remain optimistic about the striving towards this target, their optimism must be matched by an adequate level of investment in countries on HRH development. The next four years will show how much will really be achieved.

Pool desiccation and developmental thresholds in the common frog, Rana temporaria.

PubMed

Lind, Martin I; Persbo, Frida; Johansson, Frank

2008-05-07

The developmental threshold is the minimum size or condition that a developing organism must have reached in order for a life-history transition to occur. Although developmental thresholds have been observed for many organisms, inter-population variation among natural populations has not been examined. Since isolated populations can be subjected to strong divergent selection, population divergence in developmental thresholds can be predicted if environmental conditions favour fast or slow developmental time in different populations. Amphibian metamorphosis is a well-studied life-history transition, and using a common garden approach we compared the development time and the developmental threshold of metamorphosis in four island populations of the common frog Rana temporaria: two populations originating from islands with only temporary breeding pools and two from islands with permanent pools. As predicted, tadpoles from time-constrained temporary pools had a genetically shorter development time than those from permanent pools. Furthermore, the variation in development time among females from temporary pools was low, consistent with the action of selection on rapid development in this environment. However, there were no clear differences in the developmental thresholds between the populations, indicating that the main response to life in a temporary pool is to shorten the development time.

A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19.

PubMed

Chandra, Siddharth; Kassens-Noor, Eva; Kuljanin, Goran; Vertalka, Joshua

2013-02-20

Geographic variables play an important role in the study of epidemics. The role of one such variable, population density, in the spread of influenza is controversial. Prior studies have tested for such a role using arbitrary thresholds for population density above or below which places are hypothesized to have higher or lower mortality. The results of such studies are mixed. The objective of this study is to estimate, rather than assume, a threshold level of population density that separates low-density regions from high-density regions on the basis of population loss during an influenza pandemic. We study the case of the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in India, where over 15 million people died in the short span of less than one year. Using data from six censuses for 199 districts of India (n=1194), the country with the largest number of deaths from the influenza of 1918-19, we use a sample-splitting method embedded within a population growth model that explicitly quantifies population loss from the pandemic to estimate a threshold level of population density that separates low-density districts from high-density districts. The results demonstrate a threshold level of population density of 175 people per square mile. A concurrent finding is that districts on the low side of the threshold experienced rates of population loss (3.72%) that were lower than districts on the high side of the threshold (4.69%). This paper introduces a useful analytic tool to the health geographic literature. It illustrates an application of the tool to demonstrate that it can be useful for pandemic awareness and preparedness efforts. Specifically, it estimates a level of population density above which policies to socially distance, redistribute or quarantine populations are likely to be more effective than they are for areas with population densities that lie below the threshold.

A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918–19

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Geographic variables play an important role in the study of epidemics. The role of one such variable, population density, in the spread of influenza is controversial. Prior studies have tested for such a role using arbitrary thresholds for population density above or below which places are hypothesized to have higher or lower mortality. The results of such studies are mixed. The objective of this study is to estimate, rather than assume, a threshold level of population density that separates low-density regions from high-density regions on the basis of population loss during an influenza pandemic. We study the case of the influenza pandemic of 1918–19 in India, where over 15 million people died in the short span of less than one year. Methods Using data from six censuses for 199 districts of India (n=1194), the country with the largest number of deaths from the influenza of 1918–19, we use a sample-splitting method embedded within a population growth model that explicitly quantifies population loss from the pandemic to estimate a threshold level of population density that separates low-density districts from high-density districts. Results The results demonstrate a threshold level of population density of 175 people per square mile. A concurrent finding is that districts on the low side of the threshold experienced rates of population loss (3.72%) that were lower than districts on the high side of the threshold (4.69%). Conclusions This paper introduces a useful analytic tool to the health geographic literature. It illustrates an application of the tool to demonstrate that it can be useful for pandemic awareness and preparedness efforts. Specifically, it estimates a level of population density above which policies to socially distance, redistribute or quarantine populations are likely to be more effective than they are for areas with population densities that lie below the threshold. PMID:23425498

On the Reproduction Number of a Gut Microbiota Model.

PubMed

Barril, Carles; Calsina, Àngel; Ripoll, Jordi

2017-11-01

A spatially structured linear model of the growth of intestinal bacteria is analysed from two generational viewpoints. Firstly, the basic reproduction number associated with the bacterial population, i.e. the expected number of daughter cells per bacterium, is given explicitly in terms of biological parameters. Secondly, an alternative quantity is introduced based on the number of bacteria produced within the intestine by one bacterium originally in the external media. The latter depends on the parameters in a simpler way and provides more biological insight than the standard reproduction number, allowing the design of experimental procedures. Both quantities coincide and are equal to one at the extinction threshold, below which the bacterial population becomes extinct. Optimal values of both reproduction numbers are derived assuming parameter trade-offs.

The evolution of altruism in spatial threshold public goods games via an insurance mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianlei; Zhang, Chunyan

2015-05-01

The persistence of cooperation in public goods situations has become an important puzzle for researchers. This paper considers the threshold public goods games where the option of insurance is provided for players from the standpoint of diversification of risk, envisaging the possibility of multiple strategies in such scenarios. In this setting, the provision point is defined in terms of the minimum number of contributors in one threshold public goods game, below which the game fails. In the presence of risk and insurance, more contributions are motivated if (1) only cooperators can opt to be insured and thus their contribution loss in the aborted games can be (partly or full) covered by the insurance; (2) insured cooperators obtain larger compensation, at lower values of the threshold point (the required minimum number of contributors). Moreover, results suggest the dominance of insured defectors who get a better promotion by more profitable benefits from insurance. We provide results of extensive computer simulations in the realm of spatial games (random regular networks and scale-free networks here), and support this study with analytical results for well-mixed populations. Our study is expected to establish a causal link between the widespread altruistic behaviors and the existing insurance system.

Forecast-based interventions can reduce the health and economic burden of wildfires.

PubMed

Rappold, Ana G; Fann, Neal L; Crooks, James; Huang, Jin; Cascio, Wayne E; Devlin, Robert B; Diaz-Sanchez, David

2014-09-16

We simulated public health forecast-based interventions during a wildfire smoke episode in rural North Carolina to show the potential for use of modeled smoke forecasts toward reducing the health burden and showed a significant economic benefit of reducing exposures. Daily and county wide intervention advisories were designed to occur when fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from smoke, forecasted 24 or 48 h in advance, was expected to exceed a predetermined threshold. Three different thresholds were considered in simulations, each with three different levels of adherence to the advisories. Interventions were simulated in the adult population susceptible to health exacerbations related to the chronic conditions of asthma and congestive heart failure. Associations between Emergency Department (ED) visits for these conditions and daily PM2.5 concentrations under each intervention were evaluated. Triggering interventions at lower PM2.5 thresholds (≤ 20 μg/m(3)) with good compliance yielded the greatest risk reduction. At the highest threshold levels (50 μg/m(3)) interventions were ineffective in reducing health risks at any level of compliance. The economic benefit of effective interventions exceeded $1 M in excess ED visits for asthma and heart failure, $2 M in loss of productivity, $100 K in respiratory conditions in children, and $42 million due to excess mortality.

Defining Threshold Values of Encapsulant and Backsheet Adhesion for PV Module Reliability

DOE PAGES

Bosco, Nick; Eafanti, Joshua; Kurtz, Sarah; ...

2017-10-04

The width-tapered cantilever beam method is used to quantify the debond energy (adhesion) of encapsulant and backsheet structures of 32 modules collected from the field. The collected population of modules contains both those that have remained intact and those with instances of either or both encapsulant and backsheet delamination. From this survey, initial threshold values (an adhesion value above which a module should remain intact throughout its lifetime) for encapsulant and backsheet interfaces are proposed. For encapsulants this value is ~ 160J/m 2 and for backsheets ~ 10J/m 2. Here, it is expected that these values will continue to bemore » refined and evolve as the width-tapered cantilever beam method gets adopted by the PV industry, and that they may aid in the future improvement of accelerated lifetime tests and the development of new, low-cost materials.« less

Defining Threshold Values of Encapsulant and Backsheet Adhesion for PV Module Reliability: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bosco, Nicholas S; Kurtz, Sarah; Eafanti, Joshua

2017-08-28

The width-tapered cantilever beam method is used to quantify the debond energy (adhesion) of encapsulant and backsheet structures of 27 modules collected from the field. The collected population of modules contains both those that have remained in-tact and those with instances of either or both encapsulant and backsheet delamination. From this survey, initial threshold values (an adhesion value above which a module should remain intact throughout its lifetime) for encapsulant and backsheet interfaces are proposed. For encapsulants this value is about 60 J/m2 and for backsheets about 20 J/m2. It is expected that these values will continue to be refinedmore » and evolve as the width-tapered cantilever beam method becomes adopted by the PV industry, and that they may aid in the future improvement of accelerated lifetime tests and the development of new, low-cost materials.« less

48 CFR 636.602-5 - Short selection processes for contracts not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... for contracts not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. 636.602-5 Section 636.602-5 Federal... not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. The short selection process described in FAR 36.602-5 is authorized for use for contracts not expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold...

48 CFR 1336.602-5 - Short selection process for contracts not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... for contracts not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. 1336.602-5 Section 1336.602-5... for contracts not to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. (a) In contracts not expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold, either or both of the short selection processes set out at...

Low-Dose Chest Computed Tomography for Lung Cancer Screening Among Hodgkin Lymphoma Survivors: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wattson, Daniel A., E-mail: dwattson@partners.org; Hunink, M.G. Myriam; DiPiro, Pamela J.

2014-10-01

Purpose: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors face an increased risk of treatment-related lung cancer. Screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) may allow detection of early stage, resectable cancers. We developed a Markov decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness model to estimate the merits of annual LDCT screening among HL survivors. Methods and Materials: Population databases and HL-specific literature informed key model parameters, including lung cancer rates and stage distribution, cause-specific survival estimates, and utilities. Relative risks accounted for radiation therapy (RT) technique, smoking status (>10 pack-years or current smokers vs not), age at HL diagnosis, time from HL treatment, and excess radiation from LDCTs.more » LDCT assumptions, including expected stage-shift, false-positive rates, and likely additional workup were derived from the National Lung Screening Trial and preliminary results from an internal phase 2 protocol that performed annual LDCTs in 53 HL survivors. We assumed a 3% discount rate and a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Results: Annual LDCT screening was cost effective for all smokers. A male smoker treated with mantle RT at age 25 achieved maximum QALYs by initiating screening 12 years post-HL, with a life expectancy benefit of 2.1 months and an incremental cost of $34,841/QALY. Among nonsmokers, annual screening produced a QALY benefit in some cases, but the incremental cost was not below the WTP threshold for any patient subsets. As age at HL diagnosis increased, earlier initiation of screening improved outcomes. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates and expected stage-shift from screening. Conclusions: HL survivors are an important high-risk population that may benefit from screening, especially those treated in the past with large radiation fields including mantle or involved-field RT. Screening may be cost effective for all smokers but possibly not for nonsmokers despite a small life expectancy benefit.« less

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abreu, P.; /Lisbon, IST; Aglietta, M.

2010-06-01

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin energy threshold, 6 x 10{sup 19} eV. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than 3.1{sup o} from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the Veron-Cetty and Veron 12th catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased frommore » 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is (38{sub -6}{sup +7})%, compared with 21% expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of (69{sub -13}{sup +11})%. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation.« less

CD4+ T-cell-guided structured treatment interruptions of antiretroviral therapy in HIV disease: projecting beyond clinical trials.

PubMed

Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Wolf, Lindsey L; Anglaret, Xavier; Gabillard, Delphine; Walensky, Rochelle P; Moh, Raoul; Danel, Christine; Sloan, Caroline E; Losina, Elena; Freedberg, Kenneth A

2010-01-01

International trials have shown that CD4+ T-cell-guided structured treatment interruptions (STI) of antiretroviral therapy (ART) lead to worse outcomes than continuous treatment. We simulated continuous ART and STI strategies with higher CD4+ T-cell interruption/reintroduction thresholds than those assessed in actual trials. Using a model of HIV, we simulated cohorts of African adults with different baseline CD4+ T-cell counts (< or = 200; 201-350; and 351-500 cells/microl). We varied ART initiation criteria (immediate; CD4+ T-cell count < 350 cells/microl or > or = 350 cells/microl with severe HIV-related disease; and CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/microl or > or = 200 cells/microl with severe HIV-related disease), and ART interruption/reintroduction thresholds (350/250; 500/350; and 700/500 cells/microl). First-line therapy was non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based and second-line therapy was protease inhibitor (PI)-based. STI generally reduced life expectancy compared with continuous ART. Life expectancy increased with earlier ART initiation and higher interruption/reintroduction thresholds. STI reduced life expectancy by 48-69 and 11-30 months compared with continuous ART when interruption/reintroduction thresholds were 350/250 and 500/350 cells/microl, depending on ART initiation criteria. When patients interrupted/reintroduced ART at 700/500 cells/microl, life expectancies ranged from 2 months lower to 1 month higher than continuous ART. STI-related life expectancy increased with decreased risk of virological resistance after ART interruptions. STI with NNRTI-based regimens was almost always less effective than continuous treatment, regardless of interruption/reintroduction thresholds. The risks associated with STI decrease only if patients start ART earlier, interrupt/reintroduce treatment at very high CD4+ T-cell thresholds (700/500 cells/microl) and use first-line medications with higher resistance barriers, such as PIs.

On what basis are medical cost-effectiveness thresholds set? Clashing opinions and an absence of data: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cameron, David; Ubels, Jasper; Norström, Fredrik

2018-01-01

The amount a government should be willing to invest in adopting new medical treatments has long been under debate. With many countries using formal cost-effectiveness (C/E) thresholds when examining potential new treatments and ever-growing medical costs, accurately setting the level of a C/E threshold can be essential for an efficient healthcare system. The aim of this systematic review is to describe the prominent approaches to setting a C/E threshold, compile available national-level C/E threshold data and willingness-to-pay (WTP) data, and to discern whether associations exist between these values, gross domestic product (GDP) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE). This review further examines current obstacles faced with the presently available data. A systematic review was performed to collect articles which have studied national C/E thresholds and willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in the general population. Associations between GDP, HALE, WTP, and C/E thresholds were analyzed with correlations. Seventeen countries were identified from nine unique sources to have formal C/E thresholds within our inclusion criteria. Thirteen countries from nine sources were identified to have WTP per QALY data within our inclusion criteria. Two possible associations were identified: C/E thresholds with HALE (quadratic correlation of 0.63), and C/E thresholds with GDP per capita (polynomial correlation of 0.84). However, these results are based on few observations and therefore firm conclusions cannot be made. Most national C/E thresholds identified in our review fall within the WHO's recommended range of one-to-three times GDP per capita. However, the quality and quantity of data available regarding national average WTP per QALY, opportunity costs, and C/E thresholds is poor in comparison to the importance of adequate investment in healthcare. There exists an obvious risk that countries might either over- or underinvest in healthcare if they base their decision-making process on erroneous presumptions or non-evidence-based methodologies. The commonly referred to value of 100,000$ USD per QALY may potentially have some basis.

On what basis are medical cost-effectiveness thresholds set? Clashing opinions and an absence of data: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Cameron, David; Ubels, Jasper; Norström, Fredrik

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: The amount a government should be willing to invest in adopting new medical treatments has long been under debate. With many countries using formal cost-effectiveness (C/E) thresholds when examining potential new treatments and ever-growing medical costs, accurately setting the level of a C/E threshold can be essential for an efficient healthcare system. Objectives: The aim of this systematic review is to describe the prominent approaches to setting a C/E threshold, compile available national-level C/E threshold data and willingness-to-pay (WTP) data, and to discern whether associations exist between these values, gross domestic product (GDP) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE). This review further examines current obstacles faced with the presently available data. Methods: A systematic review was performed to collect articles which have studied national C/E thresholds and willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in the general population. Associations between GDP, HALE, WTP, and C/E thresholds were analyzed with correlations. Results: Seventeen countries were identified from nine unique sources to have formal C/E thresholds within our inclusion criteria. Thirteen countries from nine sources were identified to have WTP per QALY data within our inclusion criteria. Two possible associations were identified: C/E thresholds with HALE (quadratic correlation of 0.63), and C/E thresholds with GDP per capita (polynomial correlation of 0.84). However, these results are based on few observations and therefore firm conclusions cannot be made. Conclusions: Most national C/E thresholds identified in our review fall within the WHO’s recommended range of one-to-three times GDP per capita. However, the quality and quantity of data available regarding national average WTP per QALY, opportunity costs, and C/E thresholds is poor in comparison to the importance of adequate investment in healthcare. There exists an obvious risk that countries might either over- or underinvest in healthcare if they base their decision-making process on erroneous presumptions or non-evidence-based methodologies. The commonly referred to value of 100,000$ USD per QALY may potentially have some basis. PMID:29564962

Identifying humanitarian crises in population surveillance field sites: simple procedures and ethical imperatives.

PubMed

Fottrell, E; Byass, P

2009-02-01

Effective early warning systems of humanitarian crises may help to avert substantial increases in mortality and morbidity, and prevent major population movements. The Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) in Ethiopia has maintained a programme of epidemiological surveillance since 1987. Inspection of the BRHP data revealed large peaks of mortality in 1998 and 1999, well in excess of the normally observed year-to-year variation. Further investigation and enquiry revealed that these peaks related to a measles epidemic, and a serious episode of drought and consequent food insecurity that went undetected by the BRHP. This paper applies international humanitarian crisis threshold definitions to the BRHP data in an attempt to identify suitable mortality thresholds that may be used for the prospective detection of humanitarian crises in population surveillance sites in developing countries. Empirical investigation using secondary analysis of longitudinal population-based cohort data. The daily, weekly and monthly thresholds for crises in Butajira were applied to mortality data for the 5-year period incorporating the crisis periods of 1998-1999. Days, weeks and months in which mortality exceeded each threshold level were identified. Each threshold level was assessed in terms of prospectively identifying the true crisis periods in a timely manner whilst avoiding false alarms. The daily threshold definition is too sensitive to accurately detect impending or real crises in the population surveillance setting of the BRHP. However, the weekly threshold level is useful in identifying important increases in mortality in a timely manner without the excessive sensitivity of the daily threshold. The weekly threshold level detects the crisis periods approximately 2 weeks before the monthly threshold level. Mortality measures are highly specific indicators of the health status of populations, and simple procedures can be used to apply international crisis threshold definitions in population surveillance settings for the prospective detection of important changes in mortality rate. Standards for the timely use of surveillance data and ethical responsibilities of those responsible for the data should be made explicit to improve the public health functioning of current sentinel surveillance methodologies.

When is rational to order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment: the threshold model as an explanation of practice variation.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; van den Ende, Jef; Hamm, Robert M; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Pauker, Stephen G

2015-05-01

The threshold model represents an important advance in the field of medical decision-making. It is a linchpin between evidence (which exists on the continuum of credibility) and decision-making (which is a categorical exercise - we decide to act or not act). The threshold concept is closely related to the question of rational decision-making. When should the physician act, that is order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment? The threshold model embodies the decision theoretic rationality that says the most rational decision is to prescribe treatment when the expected treatment benefit outweighs its expected harms. However, the well-documented large variation in the way physicians order diagnostic tests or decide to administer treatments is consistent with a notion that physicians' individual action thresholds vary. We present a narrative review summarizing the existing literature on physicians' use of a threshold strategy for decision-making. We found that the observed variation in decision action thresholds is partially due to the way people integrate benefits and harms. That is, explanation of variation in clinical practice can be reduced to a consideration of thresholds. Limited evidence suggests that non-expected utility threshold (non-EUT) models, such as regret-based and dual-processing models, may explain current medical practice better. However, inclusion of costs and recognition of risk attitudes towards uncertain treatment effects and comorbidities may improve the explanatory and predictive value of the EUT-based threshold models. The decision when to act is closely related to the question of rational choice. We conclude that the medical community has not yet fully defined criteria for rational clinical decision-making. The traditional notion of rationality rooted in EUT may need to be supplemented by reflective rationality, which strives to integrate all aspects of medical practice - medical, humanistic and socio-economic - within a coherent reasoning system. © 2015 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Impact of Hellenic Arc Tsunamis on Corsica (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, Audrey; Schindelé, F.; Hébert, H.

2016-12-01

In the historical period, the Eastern Mediterranean has been devastated by several tsunamis, the two most damaging were those of AD 365 and AD 1303, generated by great earthquakes of magnitude >8 at the Hellenic plate boundary. Recently, events of 6-7 magnitude have occurred in this region. As the French tsunami warning center has to ensure the warning for the French coastlines, the question has raised the possibility for a major tsunami triggered along the Hellenic arc to impact the French coasts. The focus is on the Corsica coasts especially, to estimate what would be the expected wave heights, and from which threshold of magnitude it would be necessary to put the population under cover. This study shows that a magnitude 8.0 earthquake nucleated along the Hellenic arc could induce in some cases a tsunami that would be observed along the Corsica coasts, and for events of 8.5 magnitude amplitudes exceeding 50 cm can be expected, which would be dangerous in harbors and beach areas especially. The main contribution of these results is the establishment of specific thresholds of magnitude for the tsunami warning along the French coasts, 7.8 for the advisory level (coastal marine threat with harbors and beaches evacuation), and 8.3 for the watch level (inland inundation threat) for tsunamis generated along the Hellenic arc.

Measuring the transmission dynamics of a sexually transmitted disease

PubMed Central

Ryder, Jonathan J.; Webberley, K. Mary; Boots, Michael; Knell, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) occur throughout the animal kingdom and are generally thought to affect host population dynamics and evolution very differently from other directly transmitted infectious diseases. In particular, STDs are not thought to have threshold densities for persistence or to be able to regulate host population density independently; they may also have the potential to cause host extinction. However, these expectations follow from a theory that assumes that the rate of STD spread depends on the proportion (rather than the density) of individuals infected in a population. We show here that this key assumption (“frequency dependence”), which has not previously been tested in an animal STD system, is invalid in a simple and general experimental model. Transmission of an STD in the two-spot ladybird depended more on the density of infected individuals in the study population than on their frequency. We argue that, in this system, and in many other animal STDs in which population density affects sexual contact rate, population dynamics may exhibit some characteristics that are normally reserved for diseases with density-dependent transmission. PMID:16204382

Optimal threshold estimator of a prognostic marker by maximizing a time-dependent expected utility function for a patient-centered stratified medicine.

PubMed

Dantan, Etienne; Foucher, Yohann; Lorent, Marine; Giral, Magali; Tessier, Philippe

2018-06-01

Defining thresholds of prognostic markers is essential for stratified medicine. Such thresholds are mostly estimated from purely statistical measures regardless of patient preferences potentially leading to unacceptable medical decisions. Quality-Adjusted Life-Years are a widely used preferences-based measure of health outcomes. We develop a time-dependent Quality-Adjusted Life-Years-based expected utility function for censored data that should be maximized to estimate an optimal threshold. We performed a simulation study to compare estimated thresholds when using the proposed expected utility approach and purely statistical estimators. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology which was implemented in the R package ROCt ( www.divat.fr ). First, by reanalysing data of a randomized clinical trial comparing the efficacy of prednisone vs. placebo in patients with chronic liver cirrhosis, we demonstrate the utility of treating patients with a prothrombin level higher than 89%. Second, we reanalyze the data of an observational cohort of kidney transplant recipients: we conclude to the uselessness of the Kidney Transplant Failure Score to adapt the frequency of clinical visits. Applying such a patient-centered methodology may improve future transfer of novel prognostic scoring systems or markers in clinical practice.

Cost-Effectiveness of Enhanced Syphilis Screening among HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Microsimulation Model

PubMed Central

Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Burchell, Ann N.; Fisman, David N.

2014-01-01

Background Syphilis co-infection risk has increased substantially among HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM). Frequent screening for syphilis and treatment of men who test positive might be a practical means of controlling the risk of infection and disease sequelae in this population. Purpose We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of strategies that increased the frequency and population coverage of syphilis screening in HIV-infected MSM receiving HIV care, relative to current standard of care. Methods We developed a state-transition microsimulation model of syphilis natural history and medical care in HIV-infected MSM receiving care for HIV. We performed Monte Carlo simulations using input data derived from a large observational cohort in Ontario, Canada, and from published biomedical literature. Simulations compared usual care (57% of the population screened annually) to different combinations of more frequent (3- or 6-monthly) screening and higher coverage (100% screened). We estimated expected disease-specific outcomes, quality-adjusted survival, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with each strategy from the perspective of a public health care payer. Results Usual care was more costly and less effective than strategies with more frequent or higher coverage screening. Higher coverage strategies (with screening frequency of 3 or 6 months) were expected to be cost-effective based on usually cited willingness-to-pay thresholds. These findings were robust in the face of probabilistic sensitivity analyses, alternate cost-effectiveness thresholds, and alternate assumptions about duration of risk, program characteristics, and management of underlying HIV. Conclusions We project that higher coverage and more frequent syphilis screening of HIV-infected MSM would be a highly cost-effective health intervention, with many potentially viable screening strategies projected to both save costs and improve health when compared to usual care. The baseline requirement for regular blood testing in this group (i.e., for viral load monitoring) makes intensification of syphilis screening appear readily practicable. PMID:24983455

Evaluation of focused multipolar stimulation for cochlear implants in long-term deafened cats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, Shefin S.; Wise, Andrew K.; Fallon, James B.; Shepherd, Robert K.

2015-06-01

Objective. Focused multipolar (FMP) stimulation has been shown to produce restricted neural activation using intracochlear stimulation in animals with a normal population of spiral ganglion neurons (SGNs). However, in a clinical setting, the widespread loss of SGNs and peripheral fibres following deafness is expected to influence the effectiveness of FMP. Approach. We compared the efficacy of FMP stimulation to both monopolar (MP) and tripolar (TP) stimulation in long-term deafened cat cochleae (n = 8). Unlike our previous study, these cochleae contained <10% of the normal SGN population adjacent to the electrode array. We also evaluated the effect of electrode position on stimulation modes by using either modiolar facing or lateral wall facing half-band electrodes. The spread of neural activity across the inferior colliculus, a major nucleus within the central auditory pathway, was used as a measure of spatial selectivity. Main results. In cochleae with significant SGN degeneration, we observed that FMP and TP stimulation resulted in greater spatial selectivity than MP stimulation (p < 0.001). However, thresholds were significantly higher for FMP and TP stimulation compared to MP stimulation (p < 0.001). No difference between FMP and TP stimulation was found in any measures. The high threshold levels for FMP stimulation was significantly reduced without compromising spatial selectivity by varying the degree of current focusing (referred as ‘partial-FMP’ stimulation). Spatial selectivity of all stimulation modes was unaffected by the electrode position. Finally, spatial selectivity in long-term deafened cochleae was significantly less than that of cochleae with normal SGN population (George S S et al 2014 J. Neural Eng. 11 065003). Significance. The present results indicate that the greater spatial selectivity of FMP and TP stimulation over MP stimulation is maintained in cochleae with significant neural degeneration and is not adversely affected by electrode position. The greater spatial selectivity of FMP and TP stimulation would be expected to result in improved clinical performance.

Incentive payments are not related to expected health gain in the pay for performance scheme for UK primary care: cross-sectional analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The General Medical Services primary care contract for the United Kingdom financially rewards performance in 19 clinical areas, through the Quality and Outcomes Framework. Little is known about how best to determine the size of financial incentives in pay for performance schemes. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that performance indicators with larger population health benefits receive larger financial incentives. Methods We performed cross sectional analyses to quantify associations between the size of financial incentives and expected health gain in the 2004 and 2006 versions of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. We used non-parametric two-sided Spearman rank correlation tests. Health gain was measured in expected lives saved in one year and in quality adjusted life years. For each quality indicator in an average sized general practice we tested for associations first, between the marginal increase in payment and the health gain resulting from a one percent point improvement in performance and second, between total payment and the health gain at the performance threshold for maximum payment. Results Evidence for lives saved or quality adjusted life years gained was found for 28 indicators accounting for 41% of the total incentive payments. No statistically significant associations were found between the expected health gain and incentive gained from a marginal 1% increase in performance in either the 2004 or 2006 version of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. In addition no associations were found between the size of financial payment for achievement of an indicator and the expected health gain at the performance threshold for maximum payment measured in lives saved or quality adjusted life years. Conclusions In this subgroup of indicators the financial incentives were not aligned to maximise health gain. This disconnection between incentive and expected health gain risks supporting clinical activities that are only marginally effective, at the expense of more effective activities receiving lower incentives. When designing pay for performance programmes decisions about the size of the financial incentive attached to an indicator should be informed by information on the health gain to be expected from that indicator. PMID:22507660

Weight, Mass, and Gravity: Threshold Concepts in Learning Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bar, Varda; Brosh, Yaffa; Sneider, Cary

2016-01-01

Threshold concepts are essential ideas about the natural world that present either a barrier or a gateway to a deep understanding of science. Weight, mass, and gravity are threshold concepts that underpin students' abilities to understand important ideas in all fields of science, embodied in the performance expectations in the Next Generation…

75 FR 32845 - Consultative Examination-Annual Onsite Review of Medical Providers

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-10

.... ACTION: Final rules. SUMMARY: We are revising the threshold billing amount that triggers annual on-site... titles II and XVI of the Social Security Act (Act). The revision will raise the threshold amount to reflect the increase in billing amounts since we first established the threshold amount in 1991. We expect...

The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and projections for the future

PubMed Central

Van Bavel, J.

2013-01-01

At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between the world regions. Next, the mechanisms behind unprecedented population growth are explained and plausible scenarios for future developments are discussed. Crucial for the long term trend will be the rate of decline of the number of births per woman, called total fertility. Improvements in education, reproductive health and child survival will be needed to speed up the decline of total fertility, particularly in Africa. But in all scenarios, world population will continue to grow for some time due to population momentum. Finally, the paper outlines the debate about the consequences of the population explosion, involving poverty and food security, the impact on the natural environment, and migration flows. Key words: Fertility, family planning, world population, population growth, demographic transition, urbanization, population momentum, population projections. PMID:24753956

Empirical estimation of genome-wide significance thresholds based on the 1000 Genomes Project data set.

PubMed

Kanai, Masahiro; Tanaka, Toshihiro; Okada, Yukinori

2016-10-01

To assess the statistical significance of associations between variants and traits, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) should employ an appropriate threshold that accounts for the massive burden of multiple testing in the study. Although most studies in the current literature commonly set a genome-wide significance threshold at the level of P=5.0 × 10 -8 , the adequacy of this value for respective populations has not been fully investigated. To empirically estimate thresholds for different ancestral populations, we conducted GWAS simulations using the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 data set for Africans (AFR), Europeans (EUR), Admixed Americans (AMR), East Asians (EAS) and South Asians (SAS). The estimated empirical genome-wide significance thresholds were P sig =3.24 × 10 -8 (AFR), 9.26 × 10 -8 (EUR), 1.83 × 10 -7 (AMR), 1.61 × 10 -7 (EAS) and 9.46 × 10 -8 (SAS). We additionally conducted trans-ethnic meta-analyses across all populations (ALL) and all populations except for AFR (ΔAFR), which yielded P sig =3.25 × 10 -8 (ALL) and 4.20 × 10 -8 (ΔAFR). Our results indicate that the current threshold (P=5.0 × 10 -8 ) is overly stringent for all ancestral populations except for Africans; however, we should employ a more stringent threshold when conducting a meta-analysis, regardless of the presence of African samples.

Galactic dual population models of gamma-ray bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higdon, J. C.; Lingenfelter, R. E.

1994-01-01

We investigate in more detail the properties of two-population models for gamma-ray bursts in the galactic disk and halo. We calculate the gamma-ray burst statistical properties, mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), as functions of the detection flux threshold for bursts coming from both Galactic disk and massive halo populations. We consider halo models inferred from the observational constraints on the large-scale Galactic structure and we compare the expected values of mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), with those measured by Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and other detectors. We find that the measured values are consistent with solely Galactic populations having a range of halo distributions, mixed with local disk distributions, which can account for as much as approximately 25% of the observed BATSE bursts. M31 does not contribute to these modeled bursts. We also demonstrate, contrary to recent arguments, that the size-frequency distributions of dual population models are quite consistent with the BATSE observations.

A score-statistic approach for determining threshold values in QTL mapping.

PubMed

Kao, Chen-Hung; Ho, Hsiang-An

2012-06-01

Issues in determining the threshold values of QTL mapping are often investigated for the backcross and F2 populations with relatively simple genome structures so far. The investigations of these issues in the progeny populations after F2 (advanced populations) with relatively more complicated genomes are generally inadequate. As these advanced populations have been well implemented in QTL mapping, it is important to address these issues for them in more details. Due to an increasing number of meiosis cycle, the genomes of the advanced populations can be very different from the backcross and F2 genomes. Therefore, special devices that consider the specific genome structures present in the advanced populations are required to resolve these issues. By considering the differences in genome structure between populations, we formulate more general score test statistics and gaussian processes to evaluate their threshold values. In general, we found that, given a significance level and a genome size, threshold values for QTL detection are higher in the denser marker maps and in the more advanced populations. Simulations were performed to validate our approach.

Equilibrium analysis of a yellow Fever dynamical model with vaccination.

PubMed

Martorano Raimundo, Silvia; Amaku, Marcos; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

We propose an equilibrium analysis of a dynamical model of yellow fever transmission in the presence of a vaccine. The model considers both human and vector populations. We found thresholds parameters that affect the development of the disease and the infectious status of the human population in the presence of a vaccine whose protection may wane over time. In particular, we derived a threshold vaccination rate, above which the disease would be eradicated from the human population. We show that if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is greater than a given threshold, then the disease is naturally (without intervention) eradicated from the population. In contrast, if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is less than that threshold, then the disease is eradicated from the populations only when the growing rate of humans is less than another threshold; otherwise, the disease is eradicated only if the reproduction number of the infection after vaccination is less than 1. When this reproduction number is greater than 1, the disease will be eradicated from the human population if the vaccination rate is greater than a given threshold; otherwise, the disease will establish itself among humans, reaching a stable endemic equilibrium. The analysis presented in this paper can be useful, both to the better understanding of the disease dynamics and also for the planning of vaccination strategies.

A mismatch between population health literacy and the complexity of health information: an observational study.

PubMed

Rowlands, Gillian; Protheroe, Joanne; Winkley, John; Richardson, Marty; Seed, Paul T; Rudd, Rima

2015-06-01

Low health literacy is associated with poorer health and higher mortality. Complex health materials are a barrier to health. To assess the literacy and numeracy skills required to understand and use commonly used English health information materials, and to describe population skills in relation to these. An English observational study comparing health materials with national working-age population skills. Health materials were sampled using a health literacy framework. Competency thresholds to understand and use the materials were identified. The proportion of the population above and below these thresholds, and the sociodemographic variables associated with a greater risk of being below the thresholds, were described. Sixty-four health materials were sampled. Two competency thresholds were identified: text (literacy) only, and text + numeracy; 2515/5795 participants (43%) were below the text-only threshold, while 2905/4767 (61%) were below the text + numeracy threshold. Univariable analyses of social determinants of health showed that those groups more at risk of socioeconomic deprivation had higher odds of being below the health literacy competency threshold than those at lower risk of deprivation. Multivariable analysis resulted in some variables becoming non-significant or reduced in effect. Levels of low health literacy mirror those found in other industrialised countries, with a mismatch between the complexity of health materials and the skills of the English adult working-age population. Those most in need of health information have the least access to it. Efficacious strategies are building population skills, improving health professionals' communication, and improving written health information. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Rolinski, Susanne; Weindl, Isabelle; Schmitz, Christoph; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Humpenöder, Florian; Biewald, Anne; Stevanovic, Miodrag

2014-05-13

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded.

Optimal Investment Under Transaction Costs: A Threshold Rebalanced Portfolio Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tunc, Sait; Donmez, Mehmet Ali; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar

2013-06-01

We study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using "threshold rebalanced portfolios", where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the relative price sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations can be readily extended to markets having more than two stocks, where these extensions are pointed out in the paper. As predicted from our derivations, we significantly improve the achieved wealth over portfolio selection algorithms from the literature on historical data sets.

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The mutation-drift balance in spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Schneider, David M; Martins, Ayana B; de Aguiar, Marcus A M

2016-08-07

In finite populations the action of neutral mutations is balanced by genetic drift, leading to a stationary distribution of alleles that displays a transition between two different behaviors. For small mutation rates most individuals will carry the same allele at equilibrium, whereas for high mutation rates of the alleles will be randomly distributed with frequencies close to one half for a biallelic gene. For well-mixed haploid populations the mutation threshold is μc=1/2N, where N is the population size. In this paper we study how spatial structure affects this mutation threshold. Specifically, we study the stationary allele distribution for populations placed on regular networks where connected nodes represent potential mating partners. We show that the mutation threshold is sensitive to spatial structure only if the number of potential mates is very small. In this limit, the mutation threshold decreases substantially, increasing the diversity of the population at considerably low mutation rates. Defining kc as the degree of the network for which the mutation threshold drops to half of its value in well-mixed populations we show that kc grows slowly as a function of the population size, following a power law. Our calculations and simulations are based on the Moran model and on a mapping between the Moran model with mutations and the voter model with opinion makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing repeat liver transplant graft utility through strategic matching of donor and recipient characteristics.

PubMed

Hung, Kenneth; Gralla, Jane; Dodge, Jennifer L; Bambha, Kiran M; Dirchwolf, Melisa; Rosen, Hugo R; Biggins, Scott W

2015-11-01

Repeat liver transplantation (LT) is controversial because of inferior outcomes versus primary LT. A minimum 1-year expected post-re-LT survival of 50% has been proposed. We aimed to identify combinations of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), donor risk index (DRI), and recipient characteristics achieving this graft survival threshold. We identified re-LT recipients listed in the United States from March 2002 to January 2010 with > 90 days between primary LT and listing for re-LT. Using Cox regression, we estimated the expected probability of 1-year graft survival and identified combinations of MELD, DRI, and recipient characteristics attaining >50% expected 1-year graft survival. Re-LT recipients (n = 1418) had a median MELD of 26 and median age of 52 years. Expected 1-year graft survival exceeded 50% regardless of MELD or DRI in Caucasian recipients who were not infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) of all ages and Caucasian HCV-infected recipients <50 years old. As age increased in HCV-infected Caucasian and non-HCV-infected African American recipients, lower MELD scores or lower DRI grafts were needed to attain the graft survival threshold. As MELD scores increased in HCV-infected African American recipients, lower-DRI livers were required to achieve the graft survival threshold. Use of high-DRI livers (>1.44) in HCV-infected recipients with a MELD score > 26 at re-LT failed to achieve the graft survival threshold with recipient age ≥ 60 years (any race), as well as at age ≥ 50 years for Caucasians and at age < 50 years for African Americans. Strategic donor selection can achieve >50% expected 1-year graft survival even in high-risk re-LT recipients (HCV infected, older age, African American race, high MELD scores). Low-risk transplant recipients (age < 50 years, non-HCV-infected) can achieve the survival threshold with varying DRI and MELD scores. © 2015 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

The future is urban.

PubMed

1992-05-01

Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

The benefits and tradeoffs for varied high-severity injury risk thresholds for advanced automatic crash notification systems.

PubMed

Bahouth, George; Graygo, Jill; Digges, Kennerly; Schulman, Carl; Baur, Peter

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study are to (1) characterize the population of crashes meeting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-recommended 20% risk of Injury Severity Score (ISS)>15 injury and (2) explore the positive and negative effects of an advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) system whose threshold for high-risk indications is 10% versus 20%. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the occurrence of motor vehicle crash injuries at both the ISS>15 and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ level. Models were trained using crash characteristics recommended by the CDC Committee on Advanced Automatic Collision Notification and Triage of the Injured Patient. Each model was used to assign the probability of severe injury (defined as MAIS 3+ or ISS>15 injury) to a subset of NASS-CDS cases based on crash attributes. Subsequently, actual AIS and ISS levels were compared with the predicted probability of injury to determine the extent to which the seriously injured had corresponding probabilities exceeding the 10% and 20% risk thresholds. Models were developed using an 80% sample of NASS-CDS data from 2002 to 2012 and evaluations were performed using the remaining 20% of cases from the same period. Within the population of seriously injured (i.e., those having one or more AIS 3 or higher injuries), the number of occupants whose injury risk did not exceed the 10% and 20% thresholds were estimated to be 11,700 and 18,600, respectively, each year using the MAIS 3+ injury model. For the ISS>15 model, 8,100 and 11,000 occupants sustained ISS>15 injuries yet their injury probability did not reach the 10% and 20% probability for severe injury respectively. Conversely, model predictions suggested that, at the 10% and 20% thresholds, 207,700 and 55,400 drivers respectively would be incorrectly flagged as injured when their injuries had not reached the AIS 3 level. For the ISS>15 model, 87,300 and 41,900 drivers would be incorrectly flagged as injured when injury severity had not reached the ISS>15 injury level. This article provides important information comparing the expected positive and negative effects of an AACN system with thresholds at the 10% and 20% levels using 2 outcome metrics. Overall, results suggest that the 20% risk threshold would not provide a useful notification to improve the quality of care for a large number of seriously injured crash victims. Alternately, a lower threshold may increase the over triage rate. Based on the vehicle damage observed for crashes reaching and exceeding the 10% risk threshold, we anticipate that rescue services would have been deployed based on current Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) practices.

Percolation threshold determines the optimal population density for public cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2012-03-01

While worldwide census data provide statistical evidence that firmly link the population density with several indicators of social welfare, the precise mechanisms underlying these observations are largely unknown. Here we study the impact of population density on the evolution of public cooperation in structured populations and find that the optimal density is uniquely related to the percolation threshold of the host graph irrespective of its topological details. We explain our observations by showing that spatial reciprocity peaks in the vicinity of the percolation threshold, when the emergence of a giant cooperative cluster is hindered neither by vacancy nor by invading defectors, thus discovering an intuitive yet universal law that links the population density with social prosperity.

Firefighters' hearing: a comparison with population databases from the International Standards Organization.

PubMed

Kales, S N; Freyman, R L; Hill, J M; Polyhronopoulos, G N; Aldrich, J M; Christiani, D C

2001-07-01

We investigated firefighters' hearing relative to general population data to adjust for age-expected hearing loss. For five groups of male firefighters with increasing mean ages, we compared their hearing thresholds at the 50th and 90th percentiles with normative and age- and sex-matched hearing data from the International Standards Organization (databases A and B). At the 50th percentile, from a mean age of 28 to a mean age of 53 years, relative to databases A and B, the firefighters lost an excess of 19 to 23 dB, 20 to 23 dB, and 16 to 19 dB at 3000, 4000, and 6000 Hz, respectively. At the 90th percentile, from a mean age of 28 to a mean age of 53 years, relative to databases A and B, the firefighters lost an excess of 12 to 20 dB, 38 to 44 dB, 41 to 45 dB, and 22 to 28 dB at 2000, 3000, 4000, and 6000 Hz, respectively. The results are consistent with accelerated hearing loss in excess of age-expected loss among the firefighters, especially at or above the 90th percentile.

Genetic Allee effects and their interaction with ecological Allee effects.

PubMed

Wittmann, Meike J; Stuis, Hanna; Metzler, Dirk

2018-01-01

It is now widely accepted that genetic processes such as inbreeding depression and loss of genetic variation can increase the extinction risk of small populations. However, it is generally unclear whether extinction risk from genetic causes gradually increases with decreasing population size or whether there is a sharp transition around a specific threshold population size. In the ecological literature, such threshold phenomena are called 'strong Allee effects' and they can arise for example from mate limitation in small populations. In this study, we aim to (i) develop a meaningful notion of a 'strong genetic Allee effect', (ii) explore whether and under what conditions such an effect can arise from inbreeding depression due to recessive deleterious mutations, and (iii) quantify the interaction of potential genetic Allee effects with the well-known mate-finding Allee effect. We define a strong genetic Allee effect as a genetic process that causes a population's survival probability to be a sigmoid function of its initial size. The inflection point of this function defines the critical population size. To characterize survival-probability curves, we develop and analyse simple stochastic models for the ecology and genetics of small populations. Our results indicate that inbreeding depression can indeed cause a strong genetic Allee effect, but only if individuals carry sufficiently many deleterious mutations (lethal equivalents). Populations suffering from a genetic Allee effect often first grow, then decline as inbreeding depression sets in and then potentially recover as deleterious mutations are purged. Critical population sizes of ecological and genetic Allee effects appear to be often additive, but even superadditive interactions are possible. Many published estimates for the number of lethal equivalents in birds and mammals fall in the parameter range where strong genetic Allee effects are expected. Unfortunately, extinction risk due to genetic Allee effects can easily be underestimated as populations with genetic problems often grow initially, but then crash later. Also interactions between ecological and genetic Allee effects can be strong and should not be neglected when assessing the viability of endangered or introduced populations. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Damage threshold of platinum coating used for optics for self-seeding of soft x-ray free electron laser

DOE PAGES

Krzywinski, Jacek; Cocco, Daniele; Moeller, Stefan; ...

2015-02-23

We investigated the experimental damage threshold of platinum coating on a silicon substrate illuminated by soft x-ray radiation at grazing incidence angle of 2.1 deg. The coating was the same as the blazed grating used for the soft X-ray self-seeding optics of the Linac Coherent Light Source free electron laser. The irradiation condition was chosen such that the absorbed dose was similar to the maximum dose expected for the grating. The expected dose was simulated by solving the Helmholtz equation in non-homogenous media. The experiment was performed at 900 eV photon energy for both single pulse and multi-shot conditions. Wemore » have not observed single shot damage. This corresponds to a single shot damage threshold being higher than 3 J/cm 2. The multiple shot damage threshold measured for 10 shots and about 600 shots was determined to be 0.95 J/cm 2 and 0.75 J/cm 2 respectively. The damage threshold occurred at an instantaneous dose which is higher that the melt dose of platinum.« less

Between-airport heterogeneity in air toxics emissions associated with individual cancer risk thresholds and population risks

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Airports represent a complex source type of increasing importance contributing to air toxics risks. Comprehensive atmospheric dispersion models are beyond the scope of many applications, so it would be valuable to rapidly but accurately characterize the risk-relevant exposure implications of emissions at an airport. Methods In this study, we apply a high resolution atmospheric dispersion model (AERMOD) to 32 airports across the United States, focusing on benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and benzo [a]pyrene. We estimate the emission rates required at these airports to exceed a 10-6 lifetime cancer risk for the maximally exposed individual (emission thresholds) and estimate the total population risk at these emission rates. Results The emission thresholds vary by two orders of magnitude across airports, with variability predicted by proximity of populations to the airport and mixing height (R2 = 0.74–0.75 across pollutants). At these emission thresholds, the population risk within 50 km of the airport varies by two orders of magnitude across airports, driven by substantial heterogeneity in total population exposure per unit emissions that is related to population density and uncorrelated with emission thresholds. Conclusion Our findings indicate that site characteristics can be used to accurately predict maximum individual risk and total population risk at a given level of emissions, but that optimizing on one endpoint will be non-optimal for the other. PMID:19426510

A Deep Extragalactic Survey with the ART-XC Telescope of the Spectrum-RG Observatory: Simulations and Expected Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereminskiy, I. A.; Filippova, E. V.; Burenin, R. A.; Sazonov, S. Yu.; Pavlinsky, M. N.; Tkachenko, A. Yu.; Lapshov, I. Yu.; Shtykovskiy, A. E.; Krivonos, R. A.

2018-02-01

To choose the best strategy for conducting a deep extragalactic survey with the ART-XC X-ray telescope onboard the Spectrum-Röntgen-Gamma (SRG) observatory and to estimate the expected results, we have simulated the observations of a 1.1° × 1.1° field in the 5-11 and 8-24 keV energy bands. For this purpose, we have constructed a model of the active galactic nuclei (AGN) population that reflects the properties of the X-ray emission from such objects. The photons that "arrived" from these sources were passed through a numerical model of the telescope, while the resulting data were processed with the standard ART-XC data processing pipeline. We show that several hundred AGNs at redshifts up to z ≈ 3 will be detected in such a survey over 1.2 Ms of observations with the expected charged particle background levels. Among them there will be heavily obscured AGNs, which will allow a more accurate estimate of the fraction of such objects in the total population to be made. Source confusion is expected at fluxes below 2 × 10-14 erg s-1 cm-2 (5-11 keV). Since this value can exceed the source detection threshold in a deep survey at low particle background levels, it may turn out to be more interesting to conduct a survey of larger area (several square degrees) but smaller depth, obtaining a sample of approximately four hundred bright AGNs as a result.

Climate Change, Population Immunity, and Hyperendemicity in the Transmission Threshold of Dengue

PubMed Central

Oki, Mika; Yamamoto, Taro

2012-01-01

Background It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R0), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R0 value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist–a state known as hyperendemicity–and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R0. We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. Methods and Findings We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. Conclusions The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas. PMID:23144746

Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.

PubMed

Oki, Mika; Yamamoto, Taro

2012-01-01

It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R(0)), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R(0) value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist-a state known as hyperendemicity-and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R(0). We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas.

Error minimization algorithm for comparative quantitative PCR analysis: Q-Anal.

PubMed

OConnor, William; Runquist, Elizabeth A

2008-07-01

Current methods for comparative quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysis, the threshold and extrapolation methods, either make assumptions about PCR efficiency that require an arbitrary threshold selection process or extrapolate to estimate relative levels of messenger RNA (mRNA) transcripts. Here we describe an algorithm, Q-Anal, that blends elements from current methods to by-pass assumptions regarding PCR efficiency and improve the threshold selection process to minimize error in comparative qPCR analysis. This algorithm uses iterative linear regression to identify the exponential phase for both target and reference amplicons and then selects, by minimizing linear regression error, a fluorescence threshold where efficiencies for both amplicons have been defined. From this defined fluorescence threshold, cycle time (Ct) and the error for both amplicons are calculated and used to determine the expression ratio. Ratios in complementary DNA (cDNA) dilution assays from qPCR data were analyzed by the Q-Anal method and compared with the threshold method and an extrapolation method. Dilution ratios determined by the Q-Anal and threshold methods were 86 to 118% of the expected cDNA ratios, but relative errors for the Q-Anal method were 4 to 10% in comparison with 4 to 34% for the threshold method. In contrast, ratios determined by an extrapolation method were 32 to 242% of the expected cDNA ratios, with relative errors of 67 to 193%. Q-Anal will be a valuable and quick method for minimizing error in comparative qPCR analysis.

Cluster-based analysis improves predictive validity of spike-triggered receptive field estimates

PubMed Central

Malone, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Spectrotemporal receptive field (STRF) characterization is a central goal of auditory physiology. STRFs are often approximated by the spike-triggered average (STA), which reflects the average stimulus preceding a spike. In many cases, the raw STA is subjected to a threshold defined by gain values expected by chance. However, such correction methods have not been universally adopted, and the consequences of specific gain-thresholding approaches have not been investigated systematically. Here, we evaluate two classes of statistical correction techniques, using the resulting STRF estimates to predict responses to a novel validation stimulus. The first, more traditional technique eliminated STRF pixels (time-frequency bins) with gain values expected by chance. This correction method yielded significant increases in prediction accuracy, including when the threshold setting was optimized for each unit. The second technique was a two-step thresholding procedure wherein clusters of contiguous pixels surviving an initial gain threshold were then subjected to a cluster mass threshold based on summed pixel values. This approach significantly improved upon even the best gain-thresholding techniques. Additional analyses suggested that allowing threshold settings to vary independently for excitatory and inhibitory subfields of the STRF resulted in only marginal additional gains, at best. In summary, augmenting reverse correlation techniques with principled statistical correction choices increased prediction accuracy by over 80% for multi-unit STRFs and by over 40% for single-unit STRFs, furthering the interpretational relevance of the recovered spectrotemporal filters for auditory systems analysis. PMID:28877194

From innervation density to tactile acuity: 1. Spatial representation.

PubMed

Brown, Paul B; Koerber, H Richard; Millecchia, Ronald

2004-06-11

We tested the hypothesis that the population receptive field representation (a superposition of the excitatory receptive field areas of cells responding to a tactile stimulus) provides spatial information sufficient to mediate one measure of static tactile acuity. In psychophysical tests, two-point discrimination thresholds on the hindlimbs of adult cats varied as a function of stimulus location and orientation, as they do in humans. A statistical model of the excitatory low threshold mechanoreceptive fields of spinocervical, postsynaptic dorsal column and spinothalamic tract neurons was used to simulate the population receptive field representations in this neural population of the one- and two-point stimuli used in the psychophysical experiments. The simulated and observed thresholds were highly correlated. Simulated and observed thresholds' relations to physiological and anatomical variables such as stimulus location and orientation, receptive field size and shape, map scale, and innervation density were strikingly similar. Simulated and observed threshold variations with receptive field size and map scale obeyed simple relationships predicted by the signal detection model, and were statistically indistinguishable from each other. The population receptive field representation therefore contains information sufficient for this discrimination.

Cost-effectiveness of apixaban vs warfarin for secondary stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

Easton, J. Donald; Johnston, S. Claiborne; Kim, Anthony S.

2012-01-01

Objective: To compare the cost-effectiveness of apixaban vs warfarin for secondary stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: Using standard methods, we created a Markov decision model based on the estimated cost of apixaban and data from the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial and other trials of warfarin therapy for AF. We quantified the cost and quality-adjusted life expectancy resulting from apixaban 5 mg twice daily compared with those from warfarin therapy targeted to an international normalized ratio of 2–3. Our base case population was a cohort of 70-year-old patients with no contraindication to anticoagulation and a history of stroke or TIA from nonvalvular AF. Results: Warfarin therapy resulted in a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 3.91 years at a cost of $378,500. In comparison, treatment with apixaban led to a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 4.19 years at a cost of $381,700. Therefore, apixaban provided a gain of 0.28 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an additional cost of $3,200, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $11,400 per QALY. Our findings were robust in univariate sensitivity analyses varying model inputs across plausible ranges. In Monte Carlo analysis, apixaban was cost-effective in 62% of simulations using a threshold of $50,000 per QALY and 81% of simulations using a threshold of $100,000 per QALY. Conclusions: Apixaban appears to be cost-effective relative to warfarin for secondary stroke prevention in patients with AF, assuming that it is introduced at a price similar to that of dabigatran. PMID:22993279

Hemograms for and nutritional condition of migrant bald eagles tested for exposure to lead.

PubMed

Miller, M J; Wayland, M E; Bortolotti, G R

2001-07-01

Plasma proteins, hematocrit, differential blood counts were examined and nutritional condition was estimated for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) trapped (n = 66) during antumn migration, 1994-95 at Galloway Bay (Saskatchewan, Canada), for the purposes of estimating prevalence of exposure to lead. Sex and age differences in hematocrit and plasma proteins were not observed; however, female eagles exhibited larger median absolute heterophil counts than males. Hematologic values were similar to those previously reported from eagles in captivity. Departures from expected hematological values from a healthy population of eagles were not observed in birds with elevated levels of blood lead (> or =0.200 microg/ml). Similarly, nutritional condition was not related to blood-lead concentrations. Therefore, it appears that lead exposure in this population was below a threshold required to indicate toxicological alteration in the hematological values and index of nutritional condition that we measured.

Cost-effectiveness of a potential future Helicobacter pylori vaccine in the Netherlands: the impact of varying the discount rate for health.

PubMed

de Vries, Robin; Klok, Rogier M; Brouwers, Jacobus R B J; Postma, Maarten J

2009-02-05

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Helicobacter pylori (HP) vaccine for the Dutch situation, we developed a Markov model. Several HP prevalence scenarios were assessed. Additionally, we assessed the impact of the discount rate for health on the outcomes, as this influence can be profound for vaccines. When applying the current discount rate of 1.5% for health, the expected cost-effectiveness of HP vaccination is estimated below the informal Dutch threshold of euro 20,000/LYG when the HP prevalence is assumed > or =20% in the Dutch population. In conclusion, we showed that HP vaccination could possibly be a cost-effective intervention. However, this depends to a large extend on the prevalence of HP in the population. Furthermore, we showed the large impact of the discount rate for health on the cost-effectiveness of a HP vaccination program, illustrative for other vaccination programs.

Thresholds of skin sensitivity are partially influenced by mechanical properties of the skin on the foot sole

PubMed Central

Strzalkowski, Nicholas D J; Triano, John J; Lam, Chris K; Templeton, Cale A; Bent, Leah R

2015-01-01

Across the foot sole, there are vibration and monofilament sensory differences despite an alleged even distribution of cutaneous afferents. Mechanical property differences across foot sole sites have been proposed to account for these differences. Vibration (VPT; 3 Hz, 40 Hz, 250 Hz), and monofilament (MF) perception threshold measurements were compared with skin hardness, epidermal thickness, and stretch response across five foot sole locations in young healthy adults (n = 22). Perceptual thresholds were expected to correlate with all mechanical property measurements to help address sensitivity differences between sites. Following this hypothesis, the MedArch was consistently found to be the thinnest and softest site and demonstrated the greatest sensitivity. Conversely, the Heel was found to be the thickest and hardest site, and was relatively insensitive across perceptual tests. Site differences were not observed for epidermal stretch response measures. Despite an apparent trend of elevated sensory threshold at harder and thicker sites, significant correlations between sensitivity measures and skin mechanical properties were not observed. Skin hardness and epidermal thickness appeared to have a negligible influence on VPT and minor influence on MF within this young healthy population. When normalized (% greater or smaller than subject mean) to the subject mean for each variable, significant positive correlations were observed between MF and skin hardness (R2 = 0.422, P < 0.0001) and epidermal thickness (R2 = 0.433, P < 0.0001) providing evidence that skin mechanics can influence MF threshold. In young healthy adults, differences in sensitivity are present across the foot sole, but cannot solely be accounted for by differences in the mechanical properties of the skin. PMID:26059035

Current and Projected Burden of Disease From High Ambient Temperature in Korea.

PubMed

Chung, Soo Eun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Park, Jae-Hyun; Kim, Jong-Hun; Han, Hyunjin

2017-10-01

The objective of the present study was to estimate the current and projected burden of disease from high ambient temperature using population-based data sources of nationwide mortality and morbidity in Korea. Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were estimated using noninjury-related deaths, and cerebrovascular and cardiovascular diseases from recently released nationwide health and mortality databases. Years of life lost and years lost due to disability were measured based on the point prevalence and number of deaths during the study period. Future DALY attributable to heat waves were estimated from projected populations, and temperature predictions for the years 2030 and 2050 were under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 with summertime temperatures above threshold. Relative risks (RR) of total mortality and of cardiovascular disease were 1.02 (95% CI, 1.01, 1.02) and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06, 1.09) for each 1°C increase in temperature above threshold, respectively. The morbidity of heat-related disease was RR 1.67 (95% CI, 1.64, 1.68) for each 1°C increase in temperature above threshold. DALY for all-cause death were 0.49 DALY/1000 in 2011, 0.71 (0.71) DALY/1000 in 2030 and 0.77 (1.72) DALY/1000 in 2050 based on RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). DALY for cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases were 1.24 DALY/1000 in 2011, 1.63 (1.82) DALY/1000 in 2030, and 1.76 (3.66) DALY/1000 in 2050 based on RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). Future excess mortality due to high ambient temperature is expected to be profound in Korea. Efforts to mitigate climate change can provide substantial health benefits via reducing heat-related mortality.

Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

2012-09-03

Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the large extent dominated by expected utility theory. The model also provides a platform for reconciling two groups of competing dual processing theories (parallel competitive with default-interventionalist theories).

Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention.

PubMed

Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

2013-10-19

Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue-stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s(-1)) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations.

Spatially implicit approaches to understand the manipulation of mating success for insect invasion management

Treesearch

Takehiko Yamanaka; Andrew M. Liebhold

2009-01-01

Recent work indicates that Allee effects (the positive relationship between population size and per capita growth rate) are critical in determining the successful establishment of invading species. Allee effects may create population thresholds, and failure to establish is likely if invading populations fall below these thresholds. There are many mechanisms that may...

Fixation probabilities of evolutionary coordination games on two coupled populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Liye; Ying, Limin; Zhou, Jie; Guan, Shuguang; Zou, Yong

2016-09-01

Evolutionary forces resulted from competitions between different populations are common, which change the evolutionary behavior of a single population. In an isolated population of coordination games of two strategies (e.g., s1 and s2), the previous studies focused on determining the fixation probability that the system is occupied by only one strategy (s1) and their expectation times, given an initial mixture of two strategies. In this work, we propose a model of two interdependent populations, disclosing the effects of the interaction strength on fixation probabilities. In the well-mixing limit, a detailed linear stability analysis is performed, which allows us to find and to classify the different equilibria, yielding a clear picture of the bifurcation patterns in phase space. We demonstrate that the interactions between populations crucially alter the dynamic behavior. More specifically, if the coupling strength is larger than some threshold value, the critical initial density of one strategy (s1) that corresponds to fixation is significantly delayed. Instead, the two populations evolve to the opposite state of all (s2) strategy, which are in favor of the red queen hypothesis. We delineate the extinction time of strategy (s1) explicitly, which is an exponential form. These results are validated by systematic numerical simulations.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D.

2009-12-01

The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. These and many other findings will be discussed in the presentation.

Cost-effectiveness of adding rituximab to fludarabine and cyclophosphamide for treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Ukraine.

PubMed

Mandrik, Olena; Corro Ramos, Isaac; Knies, Saskia; Al, Maiwenn; Severens, Johan L

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness, from a health care perspective, of adding rituximab to fludarabine and cyclophosphamide scheme (FCR versus FC) for treatment-naïve and refractory/relapsed Ukrainian patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. A decision-analytic Markov cohort model with three health states and 1-month cycle time was developed and run within a life time horizon. Data from two multinational, prospective, open-label Phase 3 studies were used to assess patients' survival. While utilities were generalized from UK data, local resource utilization and disease-associated treatment, hospitalization, and side effect costs were applied. The alternative scenario was performed to assess the impact of lower life expectancy of the general population in Ukraine on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for treatment-naïve patients. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the results. The ICER (in US dollars) of treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients with FCR versus FC is US$8,704 per quality-adjusted life year gained for treatment-naïve patients and US$11,056 for refractory/relapsed patients. When survival data were modified to the lower life expectancy of the general population in Ukraine, the ICER for treatment-naïve patients was higher than US$13,000. This value is higher than three times the current gross domestic product per capita in Ukraine. Sensitivity analyses have shown a high impact of rituximab costs and a moderate impact of differences in utilities on the ICER. Furthermore, probabilistic sensitivity analyses have shown that for refractory/relapsed patients the probability of FCR being cost-effective is higher than for treatment-naïve patients and is close to one if the threshold is higher than US$15,000. State coverage of rituximab treatment may be considered a cost-effective treatment for the Ukrainian population under conditions of economic stability, cost-effectiveness threshold growth, or rituximab price negotiations.

Critical thresholds and recovery of Chihuahuan Desert grasslands: Insights from long-term data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: Desertification and other harmful state transitions in drylands are expected to accelerate with global change. Ecologists are called upon to devise methods to anticipate critical thresholds and promote recovery of desired states. As in other drylands, transitions in sem...

From theoretical fixed return period events to real flooding impacts: a new approach to set flooding scenarios, thresholds and alerts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parravicini, Paola; Cislaghi, Matteo; Condemi, Leonardo

2017-04-01

ARPA Lombardia is the Environmental Protection Agency of Lombardy, a wide region in the North of Italy. ARPA is in charge of river monitoring either for Civil Protection or water balance purposes. It cooperates with the Civil Protection Agency of Lombardy (RL-PC) in flood forecasting and early warning. The early warning system is based on rainfall and discharge thresholds: when a threshold exceeding is expected, RL-PC disseminates an alert from yellow to red. The conventional threshold evaluation is based on events at a fixed return period. Anyway, the impacts of events with the same return period may be different along the river course due to the specific characteristics of the affected areas. A new approach is introduced. It defines different scenarios, corresponding to different flood impacts. A discharge threshold is then associated to each scenario and the return period of the scenario is computed backwards. Flood scenarios are defined in accordance with National Civil Protection guidelines, which describe the expected flood impact and associate a colour to the scenario from green (no relevant effects) to red (major floods). A range of discharges is associated with each scenario since they cause the same flood impact; the threshold is set as the discharge corresponding to the transition between two scenarios. A wide range of event-based information is used to estimate the thresholds. As first guess, the thresholds are estimated starting from hydraulic model outputs and the people or infrastructures flooded according to the simulations. Eventually the model estimates are validated with real event knowledge: local Civil Protection Emergency Plans usually contain very detailed local impact description at known river levels or discharges, RL-PC collects flooding information notified by the population, newspapers often report flood events on web, data from the river monitoring network provide evaluation of actually happened levels and discharges. The methodology allows to give a return period for each scenario. The return period may vary along the river course according to the discharges associated with the scenario. The values of return period may show the areas characterized by higher risk and can be an important basis for civil protection emergency planning and river monitoring. For example, considering the Lambro River, the red scenario (major flood) shows a return period of 50 years in the northern rural part of the catchment. When the river crosses the city of Milan, the return period drops to 4 years. Afterwards it goes up to more than 100 years when the river flows in the agricultural areas in the southern part of the catchment. In addition, the knowledge gained with event-based analysis allows evaluating the compliance of the monitoring network with early warning requirements and represents the starting point for further development of the network itself.

78 FR 18346 - Federal Acquisition Regulation; Submission for OMB Review; Use of Data Universal Numbering System...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-26

... in excess of the micro-purchase threshold to the Federal Procurement Data Center which collects, processes, and disseminates official statistical data on Federal contracting. Contracting officers insert...) Number, in solicitations they expect will result in contracts in excess of the micro-purchase threshold...

Effective Teacher Talk: A Threshold Concept in TESOL

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skinner, Barbara

2017-01-01

English language teachers are expected to use their talk, "teacher talk," effectively; however, teacher education courses do not always clarify how student teachers can achieve this. This article advocates that understanding and using effective teacher talk is crucial for successful ELT and as such is a "threshold concept" in…

Prevalence of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease in the European Union.

PubMed

Willey, Cynthia J; Blais, Jaime D; Hall, Anthony K; Krasa, Holly B; Makin, Andrew J; Czerwiec, Frank S

2017-08-01

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease, but estimates of its prevalence vary by >10-fold. The objective of this study was to examine the public health impact of ADPKD in the European Union (EU) by estimating minimum prevalence (point prevalence of known cases) and screening prevalence (minimum prevalence plus cases expected after population-based screening). A review of the epidemiology literature from January 1980 to February 2015 identified population-based studies that met criteria for methodological quality. These examined large German and British populations, providing direct estimates of minimum prevalence and screening prevalence. In a second approach, patients from the 2012 European Renal Association‒European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry and literature-based inflation factors that adjust for disease severity and screening yield were used to estimate prevalence across 19 EU countries (N = 407 million). Population-based studies yielded minimum prevalences of 2.41 and 3.89/10 000, respectively, and corresponding estimates of screening prevalences of 3.3 and 4.6/10 000. A close correspondence existed between estimates in countries where both direct and registry-derived methods were compared, which supports the validity of the registry-based approach. Using the registry-derived method, the minimum prevalence was 3.29/10 000 (95% confidence interval 3.27-3.30), and if ADPKD screening was implemented in all countries, the expected prevalence was 3.96/10 000 (3.94-3.98). ERA-EDTA-based prevalence estimates and application of a uniform definition of prevalence to population-based studies consistently indicate that the ADPKD point prevalence is <5/10 000, the threshold for rare disease in the EU. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.

[Analysis of patients referred to a specialist for spinal problems, in a population of adolescents].

PubMed

Schierano, Stefano; D'Osualdo, Flavio; Zacquini, Silvio

2005-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the appropriateness of the referrals by family doctors to a specialist consultation for spine problems during growing age. Over the period 2001-2002 the Centro Riabilitazione Infantile (Child Rehabilitation Unit) performed 591 first physiatric consultations for boys and girls ageing 6 to 19 years, sent by 190 different family doctors. The diagnosis were classified in five different categories (scoliosis, hyper-kyphosis, back pain, small problem, no problems) and the results were grouped, according to definite threshold values, into false positive (cases not to be addressed to the specialist) and true positive (appropriate referral to the specialist). The data were processed through univariate analysis and non-parametric association tests. The non appropriate referrals amounted to 62%, with no variations as far as the referring practitioner and the living place were concerned, but the percentage resulted higher in younger boys and in the case of scoliosis (62,3%); much smaller in kyphosis (25,2%). Scoliosis was diagnosed more frequently in females (as expected), kyphosis in males (not expected). These data confirm the need of definite criteria and standards for the referral to a specialist for spine problems and moreover the convenience of measurement instruments. This would permit a more objective evaluation and the respect of threshold values for the referral to a specialist, in order to reduce the cases that do not need any treatment and for a more punctual referral of potentially curable problems.

Age-associated variation in sensory perception of iron in drinking water and the potential for overexposure in the human population.

PubMed

Mirlohi, Susan; Dietrich, Andrea M; Duncan, Susan E

2011-08-01

Humans interact with their environment through the five senses, but little is known about population variability in the ability to assess contaminants. Sensory thresholds and biochemical indicators of metallic flavor perception in humans were evaluated for ferrous (Fe(2+)) iron in drinking water; subjects aged 19-84 years participated. Metallic flavor thresholds for individuals and subpopulations based on age were determined. Oral lipid oxidation and oral pH were measured in saliva as potential biochemical indicators. Individual thresholds were 0.007-14.14 mg/L Fe(2+) and the overall population threshold was 0.17 mg/L Fe(2+) in reagent water. Average thresholds for individuals younger and older than 50 years of age (grouped by the daily recommended nutritional guidelines for iron intake) were significantly different (p = 0.013); the population thresholds for each group were 0.045 mg/L Fe(2+) and 0.498 mg/L Fe(2+), respectively. Many subjects >50 and a few subjects <50 years were insensitive to metallic flavor. There was no correlation between age, oral lipid oxidation, and oral pH. Standardized olfactory assessment found poor sensitivity for Fe(2+) corresponded with conditions of mild, moderate, and total anosmia. The findings demonstrate an age-dependent sensitivity to iron indicating as people age they are less sensitive to metallic perception.

Methodological issues when comparing hearing thresholds of a group with population standards: the case of the ferry engineers.

PubMed

Dobie, Robert A

2006-10-01

To discuss appropriate and inappropriate methods for comparing distributions of hearing thresholds of a study group with distributions in population standards and to determine whether the thresholds of Washington State Ferries engineers are different from those of men in the general population, using both frequency-by-frequency comparisons and analysis of audiometric shape. The most recent hearing conservation program audiograms of 321 noise-exposed engineers, ages 35 to 64, were compared with the predictions of Annexes A, B, and C from ANSI S3.44. There was no screening by history or otoscopy; all audiograms were included. 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for the engineers' median thresholds for each ear, for the better ear (defined two ways), and for the binaural average. For Annex B, where 95% CIs are also available, it was possible to calculate z scores for the differences between Annex B and the engineers' better ears. Bulge depth, an audiometric shape statistic, measured curvature between 1 and 6 kHz. Engineers' better-ear median thresholds were worse than those in Annex A but (except at 1 kHz) were as good as or better than those in Annexes B and C, which are more appropriate for comparison to an unscreened noise-exposed group like the engineers. Average bulge depth for the engineers was similar to that of the Annex B standard (no added occupational noise) and was much less than that of audiograms created by using the standard with added occupational noise between 90 and 100 dBA. Audiograms from groups that have been selected for a particular exposure, but, without regard to severity, can appropriately be compared with population standards, if certain pitfalls are avoided. For unscreened study groups with large age-sex subgroups, a simple method to assess statistical significance, taking into consideration uncertainties in both the study group and the comparison standard, is the calculation of z scores for the proportion of better-ear thresholds above the Annex B median. A less powerful method combines small age-sex subgroups after age correction. Small threshold differences, even if statistically significant, may not be due to genuine differences in hearing sensitivity between study group and standard. Audiometric shape analysis offers an independent dimension of comparison between the study group and audiograms predicted from the ANSI S3.44 standard, with and without occupational noise exposure. Important pitfalls in comparison to population standards include nonrandom selection of study groups, inappropriate choice of population standard, use of the right and left ear thresholds instead of the better-ear threshold for comparison to Annex B, and comparing means with medians. The thresholds of the engineers in this study were similar to published standards for an unscreened population.

Demand for Colonoscopy in Colorectal Cancer Screening Using a Quantitative Fecal Immunochemical Test and Age/Sex-Specific Thresholds for Test Positivity.

PubMed

Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Hsu, Chen-Yang; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Young, Graeme P; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Lee, Yi-Chia; Chiu, Han-Mo; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

2018-06-01

Background: Despite age and sex differences in fecal hemoglobin (f-Hb) concentrations, most fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programs use population-average cut-points for test positivity. The impact of age/sex-specific threshold on FIT accuracy and colonoscopy demand for colorectal cancer screening are unknown. Methods: Using data from 723,113 participants enrolled in a Taiwanese population-based colorectal cancer screening with single FIT between 2004 and 2009, sensitivity and specificity were estimated for various f-Hb thresholds for test positivity. This included estimates based on a "universal" threshold, receiver-operating-characteristic curve-derived threshold, targeted sensitivity, targeted false-positive rate, and a colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted method integrating colonoscopy workload with and without age/sex adjustments. Results: Optimal age/sex-specific thresholds were found to be equal to or lower than the universal 20 μg Hb/g threshold. For older males, a higher threshold (24 μg Hb/g) was identified using a 5% false-positive rate. Importantly, a nonlinear relationship was observed between sensitivity and colonoscopy workload with workload rising disproportionately to sensitivity at 16 μg Hb/g. At this "colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted" threshold, the test positivity (colonoscopy workload) was 4.67% and sensitivity was 79.5%, compared with a lower 4.0% workload and a lower 78.7% sensitivity using 20 μg Hb/g. When constrained on capacity, age/sex-adjusted estimates were generally lower. However, optimizing age/-sex-adjusted thresholds increased colonoscopy demand across models by 17% or greater compared with a universal threshold. Conclusions: Age/sex-specific thresholds improve FIT accuracy with modest increases in colonoscopy demand. Impact: Colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted and age/sex-specific f-Hb thresholds may be useful in optimizing individual screening programs based on detection accuracy, population characteristics, and clinical capacity. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(6); 704-9. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Experimental studies of the near threshold production of K{sup +}K{sup -} pairs at COSY-11

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gil, Damian; Smyrski, Jerzy

2007-11-07

This paper sums up experimental studies of the near threshold production of K{sup +}K{sup -} pairs at COSY-11. The total cross section of the reaction pp{yields}ppK{sup +}K{sup -} has been measured at five excess energies below the {phi} production threshold with the magnetic spectrometer COSY-11. The new data show a significant enhancement of the total cross section compared to pure phase space expectations.

Distribution Characteristics of Air-Bone Gaps – Evidence of Bias in Manual Audiometry

PubMed Central

Margolis, Robert H.; Wilson, Richard H.; Popelka, Gerald R.; Eikelboom, Robert H.; Swanepoel, De Wet; Saly, George L.

2015-01-01

Objective Five databases were mined to examine distributions of air-bone gaps obtained by automated and manual audiometry. Differences in distribution characteristics were examined for evidence of influences unrelated to the audibility of test signals. Design The databases provided air- and bone-conduction thresholds that permitted examination of air-bone gap distributions that were free of ceiling and floor effects. Cases with conductive hearing loss were eliminated based on air-bone gaps, tympanometry, and otoscopy, when available. The analysis is based on 2,378,921 threshold determinations from 721,831 subjects from five databases. Results Automated audiometry produced air-bone gaps that were normally distributed suggesting that air- and bone-conduction thresholds are normally distributed. Manual audiometry produced air-bone gaps that were not normally distributed and show evidence of biasing effects of assumptions of expected results. In one database, the form of the distributions showed evidence of inclusion of conductive hearing losses. Conclusions Thresholds obtained by manual audiometry show tester bias effects from assumptions of the patient’s hearing loss characteristics. Tester bias artificially reduces the variance of bone-conduction thresholds and the resulting air-bone gaps. Because the automated method is free of bias from assumptions of expected results, these distributions are hypothesized to reflect the true variability of air- and bone-conduction thresholds and the resulting air-bone gaps. PMID:26627469

Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention

PubMed Central

Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

2013-01-01

Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue–stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s−1) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations. PMID:24018716

Speech Recognition Thresholds for Multilingual Populations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramkissoon, Ishara

2001-01-01

This article traces the development of speech audiometry in the United States and reports on the current status, focusing on the needs of a multilingual population in terms of measuring speech recognition threshold (SRT). It also discusses sociolinguistic considerations, alternative SRT stimuli for second language learners, and research on using…

Prevalence of Psychiatric Disorders among the Rural Geriatric Population: A Pilot Study in Karnataka, India

PubMed Central

Nair, Sreejith S.; Raghunath, Pooja; Nair, Sreekanth S.

2015-01-01

Background: Increasing life expectancy around the world, an outstanding achievement of our century, has brought with it new public health challenges. India is the second most populous country in the world, with over 72 million inhabitants above 60 years of age as of 2001. The life expectancy in India increased from 32 years in 1947 to over 66 years in 2010, with 8.0% of the population now reaching over 60 years of age. Few studies in India target the health, especially mental health, of this geriatric population. This study aims to estimate the current prevalence of psychiatric disorders in the geriatric population of the rural area of Singanodi,Karnataka, India. Methods: This cross sectional, epidemiological, community-based study was conducted in a rural health training area of Singanodi, Raichur District, Karnataka, India.The General Health Questionnaire-12, Mini Mental State Examination, and Geriatric Depression Scale were administered to 366 participants. Chi square tests with Yates correction were utilized for statistical analysis using SPSS 19.0 software. Results: We found that 33.9% of the geriatric population in the selected province were above the threshold for mental illness based on the GHQ-12 questionnaire. Females had a higher prevalence of mental disorder at 77.6% (152 out of 196) as compared to males who had a prevalence of 42.4% (72 out of 170). The most common psychiatric disorder was depression (21.9%), and generalized anxiety was present in 10.7% of the study population. Prevalence of cognitive impairment was 16.3%, with a significantly higher percentage of affected individuals in 80+ age group. Conclusion: Mental disorders are common among elderly people, but they are not well documented in rural India. The assessment of psychiatric disorder prevalence will help strengthen psycho-geriatric services and thus improve the quality of life of the elderly. A system that ensures comprehensive health care will have to be developed for this purpose as part of our future efforts. PMID:29138712

Prevalence of Psychiatric Disorders among the Rural Geriatric Population: A Pilot Study in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Nair, Sreejith S; Raghunath, Pooja; Nair, Sreekanth S

2015-01-01

Increasing life expectancy around the world, an outstanding achievement of our century, has brought with it new public health challenges. India is the second most populous country in the world, with over 72 million inhabitants above 60 years of age as of 2001. The life expectancy in India increased from 32 years in 1947 to over 66 years in 2010, with 8.0% of the population now reaching over 60 years of age. Few studies in India target the health, especially mental health, of this geriatric population. This study aims to estimate the current prevalence of psychiatric disorders in the geriatric population of the rural area of Singanodi,Karnataka, India. This cross sectional, epidemiological, community-based study was conducted in a rural health training area of Singanodi, Raichur District, Karnataka, India.The General Health Questionnaire-12, Mini Mental State Examination, and Geriatric Depression Scale were administered to 366 participants. Chi square tests with Yates correction were utilized for statistical analysis using SPSS 19.0 software. We found that 33.9% of the geriatric population in the selected province were above the threshold for mental illness based on the GHQ-12 questionnaire. Females had a higher prevalence of mental disorder at 77.6% (152 out of 196) as compared to males who had a prevalence of 42.4% (72 out of 170). The most common psychiatric disorder was depression (21.9%), and generalized anxiety was present in 10.7% of the study population. Prevalence of cognitive impairment was 16.3%, with a significantly higher percentage of affected individuals in 80+ age group. Mental disorders are common among elderly people, but they are not well documented in rural India. The assessment of psychiatric disorder prevalence will help strengthen psycho-geriatric services and thus improve the quality of life of the elderly. A system that ensures comprehensive health care will have to be developed for this purpose as part of our future efforts.

Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin

2018-01-01

Host density thresholds to pathogen invasion separate regions of parameter space corresponding to endemic and disease-free states. The host density threshold is a central concept in theoretical epidemiology and a common target of human and wildlife disease control programmes, but there is mixed evidence supporting the existence of thresholds, especially in wildlife populations or for pathogens with complex transmission modes (e.g. environmental transmission). Here, we demonstrate the existence of a host density threshold for an environmentally transmitted pathogen by combining an epidemiological model with a microcosm experiment. Experimental epidemics consisted of replicate populations of naive crustacean zooplankton (Daphnia dentifera) hosts across a range of host densities (20–640 hosts l−1) that were exposed to an environmentally transmitted fungal pathogen (Metschnikowia bicuspidata). Epidemiological model simulations, parametrized independently of the experiment, qualitatively predicted experimental pathogen invasion thresholds. Variability in parameter estimates did not strongly influence outcomes, though systematic changes to key parameters have the potential to shift pathogen invasion thresholds. In summary, we provide one of the first clear experimental demonstrations of pathogen invasion thresholds in a replicated experimental system, and provide evidence that such thresholds may be predictable using independently constructed epidemiological models. PMID:29410876

Genetic and demographic implications of aquaculture in white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus)conservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jager, Yetta

2005-01-01

This study uses a genetic individual-based model of white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) populations in a river to examine the genetic and demographic trade-offs associated with operating a conservation hatchery. Simulation experiments evaluated three management practices: (i) setting quotas to equalize family contributions in an effort to prevent genetic swamping, (ii) an adaptive management scheme that interrupts stocking when introgression exceeds a specified threshold, and (iii) alternative broodstock selection strategies that influence domestication. The first set of simulations, designed to evaluate equalizing the genetic contribution of families, did not show the genetic benefits expected. The second set of simulations showed thatmore » simulated adaptive management was not successful in controlling introgression over the long term, especially with uncertain feedback. The third set of simulations compared the effects of three alternative broodstock selection strategies on domestication for hypothetical traits controlling early density-dependent survival. Simulated aquaculture selected for a density-tolerant phenotype when broodstock were taken from a genetically connected population. Using broodstock from an isolated population (i.e., above an upstream barrier or in a different watershed) was more effective at preventing domestication than using wild broodstock from a connected population.« less

Optimal control of population recovery--the role of economic restoration threshold.

PubMed

Lampert, Adam; Hastings, Alan

2014-01-01

A variety of ecological systems around the world have been damaged in recent years, either by natural factors such as invasive species, storms and global change or by direct human activities such as overfishing and water pollution. Restoration of these systems to provide ecosystem services entails significant economic benefits. Thus, choosing how and when to restore in an optimal fashion is important, but has not been well studied. Here we examine a general model where population growth can be induced or accelerated by investing in active restoration. We show that the most cost-effective method to restore an ecosystem dictates investment until the population approaches an 'economic restoration threshold', a density above which the ecosystem should be left to recover naturally. Therefore, determining this threshold is a key general approach for guiding efficient restoration management, and we demonstrate how to calculate this threshold for both deterministic and stochastic ecosystems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Poverty dynamics, poverty thresholds and mortality: An age-stage Markovian model

PubMed Central

Rehkopf, David; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C.

2018-01-01

Recent studies have examined the risk of poverty throughout the life course, but few have considered how transitioning in and out of poverty shape the dynamic heterogeneity and mortality disparities of a cohort at each age. Here we use state-by-age modeling to capture individual heterogeneity in crossing one of three different poverty thresholds (defined as 1×, 2× or 3× the “official” poverty threshold) at each age. We examine age-specific state structure, the remaining life expectancy, its variance, and cohort simulations for those above and below each threshold. Survival and transitioning probabilities are statistically estimated by regression analyses of data from the Health and Retirement Survey RAND data-set, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Using the results of these regression analyses, we parameterize discrete state, discrete age matrix models. We found that individuals above all three thresholds have higher annual survival than those in poverty, especially for mid-ages to about age 80. The advantage is greatest when we classify individuals based on 1× the “official” poverty threshold. The greatest discrepancy in average remaining life expectancy and its variance between those above and in poverty occurs at mid-ages for all three thresholds. And fewer individuals are in poverty between ages 40-60 for all three thresholds. Our findings are consistent with results based on other data sets, but also suggest that dynamic heterogeneity in poverty and the transience of the poverty state is associated with income-related mortality disparities (less transience, especially of those above poverty, more disparities). This paper applies the approach of age-by-stage matrix models to human demography and individual poverty dynamics. In so doing we extend the literature on individual poverty dynamics across the life course. PMID:29768416

Tolerance for High Flavanol Cocoa Powder in Semisweet Chocolate

PubMed Central

Harwood, Meriel L.; Ziegler, Gregory R.; Hayes, John E.

2013-01-01

Endogenous polyphenolic compounds in cacao impart both bitter and astringent characteristics to chocolate confections. While an increase in these compounds may be desirable from a health perspective, they are generally incongruent with consumer expectations. Traditionally, chocolate products undergo several processing steps (e.g., fermentation and roasting) that decrease polyphenol content, and thus bitterness. The objective of this study was to estimate group rejection thresholds for increased content of cocoa powder produced from under-fermented cocoa beans in a semisweet chocolate-type confection. The group rejection threshold was equivalent to 80.7% of the non-fat cocoa solids coming from the under-fermented cocoa powder. Contrary to expectations, there were no differences in rejection thresholds when participants were grouped based on their self-reported preference for milk or dark chocolate, indicating that these groups react similarly to an increase in high cocoa flavanol containing cocoa powder. PMID:23792967

Tolerance for high flavanol cocoa powder in semisweet chocolate.

PubMed

Harwood, Meriel L; Ziegler, Gregory R; Hayes, John E

2013-06-21

Endogenous polyphenolic compounds in cacao impart both bitter and astringent characteristics to chocolate confections. While an increase in these compounds may be desirable from a health perspective, they are generally incongruent with consumer expectations. Traditionally, chocolate products undergo several processing steps (e.g., fermentation and roasting) that decrease polyphenol content, and thus bitterness. The objective of this study was to estimate group rejection thresholds for increased content of cocoa powder produced from under-fermented cocoa beans in a semisweet chocolate-type confection. The group rejection threshold was equivalent to 80.7% of the non-fat cocoa solids coming from the under-fermented cocoa powder. Contrary to expectations, there were no differences in rejection thresholds when participants were grouped based on their self-reported preference for milk or dark chocolate, indicating that these groups react similarly to an increase in high cocoa flavanol containing cocoa powder.

Photoionization of calcium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Pranawa C.; Johnson, W. R.

1983-01-01

A study of the photoionization of calcium in the relativistic random-phase approximation is reported. Predictions of photoionization cross sections, angular distribution asymmetry parameters, and spin-polarization parameters for the 4s, 3p, and 3s subshells are made with emphasis on the energy region above the 3p32 threshold where multiconfigurational effects are not expected to be very important. Autoionization resonances below the 3s threshold and between the 3p32 and 3p12 thresholds are analyzed using the relativistic multichannel quantum-defect theory.

Detection and quantification system for monitoring instruments

DOEpatents

Dzenitis, John M [Danville, CA; Hertzog, Claudia K [Houston, TX; Makarewicz, Anthony J [Livermore, CA; Henderer, Bruce D [Livermore, CA; Riot, Vincent J [Oakland, CA

2008-08-12

A method of detecting real events by obtaining a set of recent signal results, calculating measures of the noise or variation based on the set of recent signal results, calculating an expected baseline value based on the set of recent signal results, determining sample deviation, calculating an allowable deviation by multiplying the sample deviation by a threshold factor, setting an alarm threshold from the baseline value plus or minus the allowable deviation, and determining whether the signal results exceed the alarm threshold.

Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the large extent dominated by expected utility theory. The model also provides a platform for reconciling two groups of competing dual processing theories (parallel competitive with default-interventionalist theories). PMID:22943520

Population sensitivities of animals to chronic ionizing radiation-model predictions from mice to elephant.

PubMed

Sazykina, Tatiana G

2018-02-01

Model predictions of population response to chronic ionizing radiation (endpoint 'morbidity') were made for 11 species of warm-blooded animals, differing in body mass and lifespan - from mice to elephant. Predictions were made also for 3 bird species (duck, pigeon, and house sparrow). Calculations were based on analytical solutions of the mathematical model, simulating a population response to low-LET ionizing radiation in an ecosystem with a limiting resource (Sazykina, Kryshev, 2016). Model parameters for different species were taken from biological and radioecological databases; allometric relationships were employed for estimating some parameter values. As a threshold of decreased health status in exposed populations ('health threshold'), a 10% reduction in self-repairing capacity of organisms was suggested, associated with a decline in ability to sustain environmental stresses. Results of the modeling demonstrate a general increase of population vulnerability to ionizing radiation in animal species of larger size and longevity. Populations of small widespread species (mice, house sparrow; body mass 20-50 g), which are characterized by intensive metabolism and short lifespan, have calculated 'health thresholds' at dose rates about 6.5-7.5 mGy day -1 . Widespread animals with body mass 200-500 g (rat, common pigeon) - demonstrate 'health threshold' values at 4-5 mGy day -1 . For populations of animals with body mass 2-5 kg (rabbit, fox, raccoon), the indicators of 10% health decrease are in the range 2-3.4 mGy day -1 . For animals with body mass 40-100 kg (wolf, sheep, wild boar), thresholds are within 0.5-0.8 mGy day -1 ; for herbivorous animals with body mass 200-300 kg (deer, horse) - 0.5-0.6 mGy day -1 . The lowest health threshold was estimated for elephant (body mass around 5000 kg) - 0.1 mGy day -1 . According to the model results, the differences in population sensitivities of warm-blooded animal species to ionizing radiation are generally depended on the metabolic rate and longevity of organisms, also on individual radiosensitivity of biological tissues. The results of 'health threshold' calculations are formulated as a graded scale of wildlife sensitivities to chronic radiation stress, ranging from potentially vulnerable to more resistant species. Further studies are needed to expand the scale of population sensitivities to radiation, including other groups of wildlife - cold-blooded species, invertebrates, and plants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2017-09-21

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time Poverty Thresholds and Rates for the US Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalenkoski, Charlene M.; Hamrick, Karen S.; Andrews, Margaret

2011-01-01

Time constraints, like money constraints, affect Americans' well-being. This paper defines what it means to be time poor based on the concepts of necessary and committed time and presents time poverty thresholds and rates for the US population and certain subgroups. Multivariate regression techniques are used to identify the key variables…

A decision model to estimate a risk threshold for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients.

PubMed

Le, P; Martinez, K A; Pappas, M A; Rothberg, M B

2017-06-01

Essentials Low risk patients don't require venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis; low risk is unquantified. We used a Markov model to estimate the risk threshold for VTE prophylaxis in medical inpatients. Prophylaxis was cost-effective for an average medical patient with a VTE risk of ≥ 1.0%. VTE prophylaxis can be personalized based on patient risk and age/life expectancy. Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common preventable condition in medical inpatients. Thromboprophylaxis is recommended for inpatients who are not at low risk of VTE, but no specific risk threshold for prophylaxis has been defined. Objective To determine a threshold for prophylaxis based on risk of VTE. Patients/Methods We constructed a decision model with a decision-tree following patients for 3 months after hospitalization, and a lifetime Markov model with 3-month cycles. The model tracked symptomatic deep vein thromboses and pulmonary emboli, bleeding events and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Long-term complications included recurrent VTE, post-thrombotic syndrome and pulmonary hypertension. For the base case, we considered medical inpatients aged 66 years, having a life expectancy of 13.5 years, VTE risk of 1.4% and bleeding risk of 2.7%. Patients received enoxaparin 40 mg day -1 for prophylaxis. Results Assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100 000/ quality-adjusted life year (QALY), prophylaxis was indicated for an average medical inpatient with a VTE risk of ≥ 1.0% up to 3 months after hospitalization. For the average patient, prophylaxis was not indicated when the bleeding risk was > 8.1%, the patient's age was > 73.4 years or the cost of enoxaparin exceeded $60/dose. If VTE risk was < 0.26% or bleeding risk was > 19%, the risks of prophylaxis outweighed benefits. The prophylaxis threshold was relatively insensitive to low-molecular-weight heparin cost and bleeding risk, but very sensitive to patient age and life expectancy. Conclusions The decision to offer prophylaxis should be personalized based on patient VTE risk, age and life expectancy. At a WTP of $100 000/QALY, prophylaxis is not warranted for most patients with a 3-month VTE risk below 1.0%. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Heterogeneous boiling-up of superheated liquid at achievable superheat threshold.

PubMed

Ermakov, G V; Lipnyagov, E V; Perminov, S A; Gurashkin, A L

2009-07-21

The classical theory of homogeneous nucleation describes well the superheat threshold observed in experiments. It may be assumed therefore that homogeneous boiling-up of a liquid takes place in experiments, and the theory has been verified experimentally well. The streak photography used in this study showed that boiling-up of a superheated liquid at the threshold of the achievable superheat occurs at a limited number of surface fluctuation centers in a vessel, rather than in the bulk as one would expect with homogeneous nucleation. Thus, the homogeneous theory, which rather accurately describes the heterogeneous threshold of the achievable superheat, obviously is not confirmed in experiments.

Could ecological thresholds of toxicological concern (eco-TTCs) be used to support development of ambient water quality criteria?

EPA Science Inventory

The Threshold of Toxicologic Concern (TTC) is an approach used for a decades in human hazard assessment. A TTC establishes an exposure level for a chemical below which no appreciable risk to human health is expected based upon a de minimis value for toxicity identified for many ...

The anaerobic threshold: over-valued or under-utilized? A novel concept to enhance lipid optimization!

PubMed

Connolly, Declan A J

2012-09-01

The purpose of this article is to assess the value of the anaerobic threshold for use in clinical populations with the intent to improve exercise adaptations and outcomes. The anaerobic threshold is generally poorly understood, improperly used, and poorly measured. It is rarely used in clinical settings and often reserved for athletic performance testing. Increased exercise participation within both clinical and other less healthy populations has increased our attention to optimizing exercise outcomes. Of particular interest is the optimization of lipid metabolism during exercise in order to improve numerous conditions such as blood lipid profile, insulin sensitivity and secretion, and weight loss. Numerous authors report on the benefits of appropriate exercise intensity in optimizing outcomes even though regulation of intensity has proved difficult for many. Despite limited use, selected exercise physiology markers have considerable merit in exercise-intensity regulation. The anaerobic threshold, and other markers such as heart rate, may well provide a simple and valuable mechanism for regulating exercising intensity. The use of the anaerobic threshold and accurate target heart rate to regulate exercise intensity is a valuable approach that is under-utilized across populations. The measurement of the anaerobic threshold can be simplified to allow clients to use nonlaboratory measures, for example heart rate, in order to self-regulate exercise intensity and improve outcomes.

Patterns of threshold evolution in polyphenic insects under different developmental models.

PubMed

Tomkins, Joseph L; Moczek, Armin P

2009-02-01

Two hypotheses address the evolution of polyphenic traits in insects. Under the developmental reprogramming model, individuals exceeding a threshold follow a different developmental pathway from individuals below the threshold. This decoupling is thought to free selection to independently hone alternative morphologies, increasing phenotypic plasticity and morphological diversity. Under the alternative model, extreme positive allometry explains the existence of alternative phenotypes and divergent phenotypes are developmentally coupled by a continuous reaction norm, such that selection on either morph acts on both. We test the hypothesis that continuous reaction norm polyphenisms, evolve through changes in the allometric parameters of even the smallest males with minimal trait expression, whereas threshold polyphenisms evolve independent of the allometric parameters of individuals below the threshold. We compare two polyphenic species; the dung beetle Onthophagus taurus, whose allometry has been modeled both as a threshold polyphenism and a continuous reaction norm and the earwig Forficula auricularia, whose allometry is best modeled with a discontinuous threshold. We find that across populations of both species, variation in forceps or horn allometry in minor males are correlated to the population's threshold. These findings suggest that regardless of developmental mode, alternative morphs do not evolve independently of one another.

Genetic variation in threshold reaction norms for alternative reproductive tactics in male Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar.

PubMed

Piché, Jacinthe; Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Blanchard, Wade

2008-07-07

Alternative reproductive tactics may be a product of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, such that discontinuous variation in life history depends on both the genotype and the environment. Phenotypes that fall below a genetically determined threshold adopt one tactic, while those exceeding the threshold adopt the alternative tactic. We report evidence of genetic variability in maturation thresholds for male Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that mature either as large (more than 1 kg) anadromous males or as small (10-150 g) parr. Using a common-garden experimental protocol, we find that the growth rate at which the sneaker parr phenotype is expressed differs among pure- and mixed-population crosses. Maturation thresholds of hybrids were intermediate to those of pure crosses, consistent with the hypothesis that the life-history switch points are heritable. Our work provides evidence, for a vertebrate, that thresholds for alternative reproductive tactics differ genetically among populations and can be modelled as discontinuous reaction norms for age and size at maturity.

Expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in older populations

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

The purpose of this review is to update expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in free-living healthy older populations. A search of the literature published since 2001 began with a keyword (pedometer, "step counter," "step activity monitor" or "accelerometer AND steps/day") search of PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), SportDiscus, and PsychInfo. An iterative process was then undertaken to abstract and verify studies of pedometer-determined physical activity (captured in terms of steps taken; distance only was not accepted) in free-living adult populations described as ≥ 50 years of age (studies that included samples which spanned this threshold were not included unless they provided at least some appropriately age-stratified data) and not specifically recruited based on any chronic disease or disability. We identified 28 studies representing at least 1,343 males and 3,098 females ranging in age from 50–94 years. Eighteen (or 64%) of the studies clearly identified using a Yamax pedometer model. Monitoring frames ranged from 3 days to 1 year; the modal length of time was 7 days (17 studies, or 61%). Mean pedometer-determined physical activity ranged from 2,015 steps/day to 8,938 steps/day. In those studies reporting such data, consistent patterns emerged: males generally took more steps/day than similarly aged females, steps/day decreased across study-specific age groupings, and BMI-defined normal weight individuals took more steps/day than overweight/obese older adults. The range of 2,000–9,000 steps/day likely reflects the true variability of physical activity behaviors in older populations. More explicit patterns, for example sex- and age-specific relationships, remain to be informed by future research endeavors. PMID:19706192

Simplified risk assessment of noise induced hearing loss by means of 2 spreadsheet models.

PubMed

Lie, Arve; Engdahl, Bo; Tambs, Kristian

2016-11-18

The objective of this study has been to test 2 spreadsheet models to compare the observed with the expected hearing loss for a Norwegian reference population. The prevalence rates of the Norwegian and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) definitions of hearing outcomes were calculated in terms of sex and age, 20-64 years old, for a screened (with no occupational noise exposure) (N = 18 858) and unscreened (N = 38 333) Norwegian reference population from the Nord-Trøndelag Hearing Loss Study (NTHLS). Based on the prevalence rates, 2 different spreadsheet models were constructed in order to compare the prevalence rates of various groups of workers with the expected rates. The spreadsheets were then tested on 10 different occupational groups with varying degrees of hearing loss as compared to a reference population. Hearing of office workers, train drivers, conductors and teachers differed little from the screened reference values based on the Norwegian and the NIOSH criterion. The construction workers, miners, farmers and military had an impaired hearing and railway maintenance workers and bus drivers had a mildly impaired hearing. The spreadsheet models give a valid assessment of the hearing loss. The use of spreadsheet models to compare hearing in occupational groups with that of a reference population is a simple and quick method. The results are in line with comparable hearing thresholds, and allow for significance testing. The method is believed to be useful for occupational health services in the assessment of risk of noise induced hearing loss (NIHL) and the preventive potential in groups of noise-exposed workers. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2016;29(6):991-999. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Severity of killer whale behavioral responses to ship noise: a dose-response study.

PubMed

Williams, Rob; Erbe, Christine; Ashe, Erin; Beerman, Amber; Smith, Jodi

2014-02-15

Critical habitats of at-risk populations of northeast Pacific "resident" killer whales can be heavily trafficked by large ships, with transits occurring on average once every hour in busy shipping lanes. We modeled behavioral responses of killer whales to ship transits during 35 "natural experiments" as a dose-response function of estimated received noise levels in both broadband and audiogram-weighted terms. Interpreting effects is contingent on a subjective and seemingly arbitrary decision about severity threshold indicating a response. Subtle responses were observed around broadband received levels of 130 dB re 1 μPa (rms); more severe responses are hypothesized to occur at received levels beyond 150 dB re 1 μPa, where our study lacked data. Avoidance responses are expected to carry minor energetic costs in terms of increased energy expenditure, but future research must assess the potential for reduced prey acquisition, and potential population consequences, under these noise levels. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Unites States government's economic cost of noise-induced hearing loss for a military population.

PubMed

Tufts, Jennifer B; Weathersby, Paul K; Rodriguez, Francisco A

2010-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and utility of developing economic cost models for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). First, we outline an economic model of NIHL for a population of US Navy sailors with an "industrial"-type noise exposure. Next, we describe the effect on NIHL-related cost of varying the two central model inputs--the noise-exposure level and the duration of exposure. Such an analysis can help prioritize promising areas, to which limited resources to reduce NIHL-related costs should be devoted. NIHL-related costs borne by the US government were computed on a yearly basis using a finite element approach that took into account varying levels of susceptibility to NIHL. Predicted hearing thresholds for the population were computed with ANSI S3.44-1996 and then used as the basis for the calculation of NIHL-related costs. Annual and cumulative costs were tracked. Noise-exposure level and duration were systematically varied to determine their effects on the expected lifetime NIHL-related cost of a specific US Navy sailor population. Our nominal noise-exposure case [93 dB(A) for six years] yielded a total expected lifetime cost of US $13,472 per sailor, with plausible lower and upper bounds of US $2,500 and US $26,000. Starting with the nominal case, a decrease of 50% in exposure level or duration would yield cost savings of approximately 23% and 19%, respectively. We concluded that a reduction in noise level would be more somewhat more cost-effective than the same percentage reduction in years of exposure. Our economic cost model can be used to estimate the changes in NIHL-related costs that would result from changes in noise-exposure level and/or duration for a single military population. Although the model is limited at present, suggestions are provided for adapting it to civilian populations.

Prevalence scaling: applications to an intelligent workstation for the diagnosis of breast cancer.

PubMed

Horsch, Karla; Giger, Maryellen L; Metz, Charles E

2008-11-01

Our goal was to investigate the effects of changes that the prevalence of cancer in a population have on the probability of malignancy (PM) output and an optimal combination of a true-positive fraction (TPF) and a false-positive fraction (FPF) of a mammographic and sonographic automatic classifier for the diagnosis of breast cancer. We investigate how a prevalence-scaling transformation that is used to change the prevalence inherent in the computer estimates of the PM affects the numerical and histographic output of a previously developed multimodality intelligent workstation. Using Bayes' rule and the binormal model, we study how changes in the prevalence of cancer in the diagnostic breast population affect our computer classifiers' optimal operating points, as defined by maximizing the expected utility. Prevalence scaling affects the threshold at which a particular TPF and FPF pair is achieved. Tables giving the thresholds on the scaled PM estimates that result in particular pairs of TPF and FPF are presented. Histograms of PMs scaled to reflect clinically relevant prevalence values differ greatly from histograms of laboratory-designed PMs. The optimal pair (TPF, FPF) of our lower performing mammographic classifier is more sensitive to changes in clinical prevalence than that of our higher performing sonographic classifier. Prevalence scaling can be used to change computer PM output to reflect clinically more appropriate prevalence. Relatively small changes in clinical prevalence can have large effects on the computer classifier's optimal operating point.

Intra-population level variation in thresholds for physical dormancy-breaking temperature

PubMed Central

Liyanage, Ganesha S.; Ooi, Mark K. J.

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Intra-population variation in seed dormancy is an advantage for population persistence in unpredictable environments. The important role played by physically dormant species in these habitats makes understanding the level of variation in their dormancy a key ecological question. Heat produced in the soil is the major dormancy-breaking stimulus and, in fire prone ecosystems, soil temperatures generated by fire may vary spatially and over time. While many studies have investigated variation in initial dormancy, a measure that is of little value in fire-prone ecosystems, where initial dormancy levels are uniformly high, intra-population variation in dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds has never been quantified. This study predicted that species would display variation in dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds within populations, and investigated whether this variation occurred between individual plants from the same maternal environment. Methods The intra-population variation in dormancy-breaking thresholds of five common physically dormant shrub species (family Fabaceae) from fire-prone vegetation in south-eastern Australia was assessed using heat treatments and germination trials. Replicate batches of seeds from each of four maternal plants of Dillwynia floribunda, Viminaria juncea, Bossiaea heterophylla, Aotus ericoides and Acacia linifolia were treated at 40, 60, 80, 100 and 120 °C. Key Results Dormancy-breaking response to heat treatments varied significantly among individual plants for all species, with some individuals able to germinate after heating at low temperatures and others restricting germination to temperatures that only occur as a result of high-severity fires. Germination rate (T50) varied among individuals of three species. Conclusions Variation detected among individuals that were in close proximity to each other indicates that strong differences in dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds occur throughout the broader population. Differences found at the individual plant level could contribute to subsequent variation within the seed bank, providing a bet-hedging strategy, and represent a mechanism for increasing the probability of population persistence in the face of fire regime variability. PMID:25997432

Identification of a barrier height threshold where brook trout population genetic diversity, differentiation, and relatedness are affected

Treesearch

Anne Timm; Eric Hallerman; Andy Dolloff; Mark Hudy; Randall Kolka

2016-01-01

The overall goal of the study was to evaluate effects of landscape features, barriers, on Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis population genetics and to identify a potential barrier height threshold where genetic diversity was reduced upstream of the barrier and differentiation and relatedness increase. We screened variation at eight...

Small median tumor diameter at cure threshold (<20 mm) among aggressive non-small cell lung cancers in male smokers predicts both chest X-ray and CT screening outcomes in a novel simulation framework.

PubMed

Goldwasser, Deborah L; Kimmel, Marek

2013-01-01

The effectiveness of population-wide lung cancer screening strategies depends on the underlying natural course of lung cancer. We evaluate the expected stage distribution in the Mayo CT screening study under an existing simulation model of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) progression calibrated to the Mayo lung project (MLP). Within a likelihood framework, we evaluate whether the probability of 5-year NSCLC survival conditional on tumor diameter at detection depends significantly on screening detection modality, namely chest X-ray and computed tomography. We describe a novel simulation framework in which tumor progression depends on cellular proliferation and mutation within a stem cell compartment of the tumor. We fit this model to randomized trial data from the MLP and produce estimates of the median radiologic size at the cure threshold. We examine the goodness of model fit with respect to radiologic tumor size and 5-year NSCLC survival among incident cancers in both the MLP and Mayo CT studies. An existing model of NSCLC progression under-predicts the number of advanced-stage incident NSCLCs among males in the Mayo CT study (p-value = 0.004). The probability of 5-year NSCLC survival conditional on tumor diameter depends significantly on detection modality (p-value = 0.0312). In our new model, selected solution sets having a median tumor diameter of 16.2-22.1 mm at cure threshold among aggressive NSCLCs predict both MLP and Mayo CT outcomes. We conclude that the median lung tumor diameter at cure threshold among aggressive NSCLCs in male smokers may be small (<20 mm). Copyright © 2012 UICC.

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian-Zhu

2018-02-01

The underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accurately described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.

Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: incorporating clinical knowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data.

PubMed

Geneletti, Sara; O'Keeffe, Aidan G; Sharples, Linda D; Richardson, Sylvia; Baio, Gianluca

2015-07-10

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the causal effects of a treatment by exploiting naturally occurring treatment rules. It can be applied in any context where a particular treatment or intervention is administered according to a pre-specified rule linked to a continuous variable. Such thresholds are common in primary care drug prescription where the RD design can be used to estimate the causal effect of medication in the general population. Such results can then be contrasted to those obtained from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and inform prescription policy and guidelines based on a more realistic and less expensive context. In this paper, we focus on statins, a class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, however, the methodology can be applied to many other drugs provided these are prescribed in accordance to pre-determined guidelines. Current guidelines in the UK state that statins should be prescribed to patients with 10-year cardiovascular disease risk scores in excess of 20%. If we consider patients whose risk scores are close to the 20%  risk score threshold, we find that there is an element of random variation in both the risk score itself and its measurement. We can therefore consider the threshold as a randomising device that assigns statin prescription to individuals just above the threshold and withholds it from those just below. Thus, we are effectively replicating the conditions of an RCT in the area around the threshold, removing or at least mitigating confounding. We frame the RD design in the language of conditional independence, which clarifies the assumptions necessary to apply an RD design to data, and which makes the links with instrumental variables clear. We also have context-specific knowledge about the expected sizes of the effects of statin prescription and are thus able to incorporate this into Bayesian models by formulating informative priors on our causal parameters. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Threshold of long-term survival of a coastal delphinid in anthropogenically degraded environment: Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in Pearl River Delta.

PubMed

Karczmarski, Leszek; Huang, Shiang-Lin; Chan, Stephen C Y

2017-02-23

Defining demographic and ecological threshold of population persistence can assist in informing conservation management. We undertook such analyses for the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, southeast China. We use adult survival estimates for assessments of population status and annual rate of change. Our estimates indicate that, given a stationary population structure and minimal risk scenario, ~2000 individuals (minimum viable population in carrying capacity, MVP k ) can maintain the population persistence across 40 generations. However, under the current population trend (~2.5% decline/annum), the population is fast approaching its viability threshold and may soon face effects of demographic stochasticity. The population demographic trajectory and the minimum area of critical habitat (MACH) that could prevent stochastic extinction are both highly sensitive to fluctuations in adult survival. For a hypothetical stationary population, MACH should approximate 3000-km 2 . However, this estimate increases four-fold with a 5% increase of adult mortality and exceeds the size of PRD when calculated for the current population status. On the other hand, cumulatively all current MPAs within PRD fail to secure the minimum habitat requirement to accommodate sufficiently viable population size. Our findings indicate that the PRD population is deemed to become extinct unless effective conservation measures can rapidly reverse the current population trend.

Friend or Foe: Subjective Expected Relative Similarity as a Determinant of Cooperation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischer, Ilan

2009-01-01

Subjective expected relative similarity (SERS) is a descriptive theory that explains cooperation levels in single-step prisoner's dilemma (PD) games. SERS predicts that individuals cooperate whenever their "subjectively perceived similarity" with their opponent exceeds a situational index, namely the game's "similarity threshold." A thought…

Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segoni, Samuele; Rosi, Ascanio; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Fanti, Riccardo; Casagli, Nicola

2018-03-01

We communicate the results of a preliminary investigation aimed at improving a state-of-the-art RSLEWS (regional-scale landslide early warning system) based on rainfall thresholds by integrating mean soil moisture values averaged over the territorial units of the system. We tested two approaches. The simplest can be easily applied to improve other RSLEWS: it is based on a soil moisture threshold value under which rainfall thresholds are not used because landslides are not expected to occur. Another approach deeply modifies the original RSLEWS: thresholds based on antecedent rainfall accumulated over long periods are substituted with soil moisture thresholds. A back analysis demonstrated that both approaches consistently reduced false alarms, while the second approach reduced missed alarms as well.

Otoacoustic emissions in the general adult population of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway: III. Relationships with pure-tone hearing thresholds.

PubMed

Engdahl, Bo; Tambs, Kristian; Borchgrevink, Hans M; Hoffman, Howard J

2005-01-01

This study aims to describe the association between otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) and pure-tone hearing thresholds (PTTs) in an unscreened adult population (N =6415), to determine the efficiency by which TEOAEs and DPOAEs can identify ears with elevated PTTs, and to investigate whether a combination of DPOAE and TEOAE responses improves this performance. Associations were examined by linear regression analysis and ANOVA. Test performance was assessed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The relation between OAEs and PTTs appeared curvilinear with a moderate degree of non-linearity. Combining DPOAEs and TEOAEs improved performance. Test performance depended on the cut-off thresholds defining elevated PTTs with optimal values between 25 and 45 dB HL, depending on frequency and type of OAE measure. The unique constitution of the present large sample, which reflects the general adult population, makes these results applicable to population-based studies and screening programs.

Olfaction and Environment: Tsimane’ of Bolivian Rainforest Have Lower Threshold of Odor Detection Than Industrialized German People

PubMed Central

Sorokowska, Agnieszka; Sorokowski, Piotr; Hummel, Thomas; Huanca, Tomas

2013-01-01

Olfactory sensitivity varies between individuals. However, data regarding cross-cultural and inter-group differences are scarce. We compared the thresholds of odor detection of the traditional society of Tsimane’ (native Amazonians of the Bolivian rainforest; n = 151) and people living in Dresden (Germany; n = 286) using “Sniffin’ Sticks” threshold subtest. Tsimane’ detected n-butanol at significantly lower concentrations than the German subjects. The distribution of thresholds of the Tsimane’ was very specific, with 25% of Tsimane’ obtaining better results in the olfactory test than any member of the German group. These data suggest that differences in olfactory sensitivity seem to be especially salient between industrialized and non-industrialized populations inhabiting different environmental conditions. We hypothesize that the possible sources of such differences are: (i) the impact of pollution which impairs the olfactory abilities of people from industrialized countries; (ii) better training of olfaction because of the higher importance of smell in traditional populations; (iii) environmental pressures shaping olfactory abilities in these populations. PMID:23922693

Olfaction and environment: Tsimane' of Bolivian rainforest have lower threshold of odor detection than industrialized German people.

PubMed

Sorokowska, Agnieszka; Sorokowski, Piotr; Hummel, Thomas; Huanca, Tomas

2013-01-01

Olfactory sensitivity varies between individuals. However, data regarding cross-cultural and inter-group differences are scarce. We compared the thresholds of odor detection of the traditional society of Tsimane' (native Amazonians of the Bolivian rainforest; n = 151) and people living in Dresden (Germany; n = 286) using "Sniffin' Sticks" threshold subtest. Tsimane' detected n-butanol at significantly lower concentrations than the German subjects. The distribution of thresholds of the Tsimane' was very specific, with 25% of Tsimane' obtaining better results in the olfactory test than any member of the German group. These data suggest that differences in olfactory sensitivity seem to be especially salient between industrialized and non-industrialized populations inhabiting different environmental conditions. We hypothesize that the possible sources of such differences are: (i) the impact of pollution which impairs the olfactory abilities of people from industrialized countries; (ii) better training of olfaction because of the higher importance of smell in traditional populations; (iii) environmental pressures shaping olfactory abilities in these populations.

On the expected discounted penalty functions for two classes of risk processes under a threshold dividend strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Zhaoyang; Xu, Wei; Sun, Decai; Han, Weiguo

2009-10-01

In this paper, the discounted penalty (Gerber-Shiu) functions for a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks under a threshold dividend strategy are developed. We also assume that the two claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang (2) processes, respectively. When the surplus is above this threshold level, dividends are paid at a constant rate that does not exceed the premium rate. Two systems of integro-differential equations for discounted penalty functions are derived, based on whether the surplus is above this threshold level. Laplace transformations of the discounted penalty functions when the surplus is below the threshold level are obtained. And we also derive a system of renewal equations satisfied by the discounted penalty function with initial surplus above the threshold strategy via the Dickson-Hipp operator. Finally, analytical solutions of the two systems of integro-differential equations are presented.

An avoidance behavior model for migrating whale populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buck, John R.; Tyack, Peter L.

2003-04-01

A new model is presented for the avoidance behavior of migrating marine mammals in the presence of a noise stimulus. This model assumes that each whale will adjust its movement pattern near a sound source to maintain its exposure below its own individually specific maximum received sound-pressure level, called its avoidance threshold. The probability distribution function (PDF) of this avoidance threshold across individuals characterizes the migrating population. The avoidance threshold PDF may be estimated by comparing the distribution of migrating whales during playback and control conditions at their closest point of approach to the sound source. The proposed model was applied to the January 1998 experiment which placed a single acoustic source from the U.S. Navy SURTASS-LFA system in the migration corridor of grey whales off the California coast. This analysis found that the median avoidance threshold for this migrating grey whale population was 135 dB, with 90% confidence that the median threshold was within +/-3 dB of this value. This value is less than the 141 dB value for 50% avoidance obtained when the 1984 ``Probability of Avoidance'' model of Malme et al.'s was applied to the same data. [Work supported by ONR.

Age-dependent variation in the terminal investment threshold in male crickets.

PubMed

Duffield, Kristin R; Hampton, Kylie J; Houslay, Thomas M; Hunt, John; Rapkin, James; Sakaluk, Scott K; Sadd, Ben M

2018-03-01

The terminal investment hypothesis proposes that decreased expectation of future reproduction (e.g., arising from a threat to survival) should precipitate increased investment in current reproduction. The level at which a cue of decreased survival is sufficient to trigger terminal investment (i.e., the terminal investment threshold) may vary according to other factors that influence expectation for future reproduction. We test whether the terminal investment threshold varies with age in male crickets, using heat-killed bacteria to simulate an immune-inducing infection. We measured calling effort (a behavior essential for mating) and hemolymph antimicrobial activity in young and old males across a gradient of increasing infection cue intensity. There was a significant interaction between the infection cue and age in their effect on calling effort, confirming the existence of a dynamic terminal investment threshold: young males reduced effort at all infection levels, whereas old males increased effort at the highest levels relative to naïve individuals. A lack of a corresponding decrease in antibacterial activity suggests that altered reproductive effort is not traded against investment in this component of immunity. Collectively, these results support the existence of a dynamic terminal investment threshold, perhaps accounting for some of the conflicting evidence in support of terminal investment. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

2018-02-01

In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

PubMed

Artelle, Kyle A; Anderson, Sean C; Cooper, Andrew B; Paquet, Paul C; Reynolds, John D; Darimont, Chris T

2013-01-01

Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

Non-equilibrium relaxation in a stochastic lattice Lotka-Volterra model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Sheng; Täuber, Uwe C.

2016-04-01

We employ Monte Carlo simulations to study a stochastic Lotka-Volterra model on a two-dimensional square lattice with periodic boundary conditions. If the (local) prey carrying capacity is finite, there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population that separates a stable active two-species coexistence phase from an inactive state wherein only prey survive. Holding all other rates fixed, we investigate the non-equilibrium relaxation of the predator density in the vicinity of the critical predation rate. As expected, we observe critical slowing-down, i.e., a power law dependence of the relaxation time on the predation rate, and algebraic decay of the predator density at the extinction critical point. The numerically determined critical exponents are in accord with the established values of the directed percolation universality class. Following a sudden predation rate change to its critical value, one finds critical aging for the predator density autocorrelation function that is also governed by universal scaling exponents. This aging scaling signature of the active-to-absorbing state phase transition emerges at significantly earlier times than the stationary critical power laws, and could thus serve as an advanced indicator of the (predator) population’s proximity to its extinction threshold.

Effects of arc current on the life in burner rig thermal cycling of plasma sprayed ZrOsub2-Ysub2Osub3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, R. C.; Mcdonald, G.

1982-01-01

An analysis of thermal cycle life data for four sets of eight thermal barrier coated specimens representing arc currents (plasma gun power) of 525, 600, 800, or 950 amps is presented. The ZrO2-8Y2O3/NiCrAlY plasma spray coated Rene 41 rods were thermal cycled to 1040 C in a Mach 0.3-Jet A/air burner flame. The experimental results indicate the existance of a minimum or threshold power level which coating life expectancy is less than 500 cycles. Above the threshold power level, coating life expectancy more than doubles and increases with arc current.

Effects of arc current on the life in burner rig thermal cycling of plasma sprayed ZrOsub2-Ysub2Osub3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, R. C.; McDonald, G.

1982-02-01

An analysis of thermal cycle life data for four sets of eight thermal barrier coated specimens representing arc currents (plasma gun power) of 525, 600, 800, or 950 amps is presented. The ZrO2-8Y2O3/NiCrAlY plasma spray coated Rene 41 rods were thermal cycled to 1040 C in a Mach 0.3-Jet A/air burner flame. The experimental results indicate the existance of a minimum or threshold power level which coating life expectancy is less than 500 cycles. Above the threshold power level, coating life expectancy more than doubles and increases with arc current.

Novel Threshold Changeable Secret Sharing Schemes Based on Polynomial Interpolation

PubMed Central

Li, Mingchu; Guo, Cheng; Choo, Kim-Kwang Raymond; Ren, Yizhi

2016-01-01

After any distribution of secret sharing shadows in a threshold changeable secret sharing scheme, the threshold may need to be adjusted to deal with changes in the security policy and adversary structure. For example, when employees leave the organization, it is not realistic to expect departing employees to ensure the security of their secret shadows. Therefore, in 2012, Zhang et al. proposed (t → t′, n) and ({t1, t2,⋯, tN}, n) threshold changeable secret sharing schemes. However, their schemes suffer from a number of limitations such as strict limit on the threshold values, large storage space requirement for secret shadows, and significant computation for constructing and recovering polynomials. To address these limitations, we propose two improved dealer-free threshold changeable secret sharing schemes. In our schemes, we construct polynomials to update secret shadows, and use two-variable one-way function to resist collusion attacks and secure the information stored by the combiner. We then demonstrate our schemes can adjust the threshold safely. PMID:27792784

Novel Threshold Changeable Secret Sharing Schemes Based on Polynomial Interpolation.

PubMed

Yuan, Lifeng; Li, Mingchu; Guo, Cheng; Choo, Kim-Kwang Raymond; Ren, Yizhi

2016-01-01

After any distribution of secret sharing shadows in a threshold changeable secret sharing scheme, the threshold may need to be adjusted to deal with changes in the security policy and adversary structure. For example, when employees leave the organization, it is not realistic to expect departing employees to ensure the security of their secret shadows. Therefore, in 2012, Zhang et al. proposed (t → t', n) and ({t1, t2,⋯, tN}, n) threshold changeable secret sharing schemes. However, their schemes suffer from a number of limitations such as strict limit on the threshold values, large storage space requirement for secret shadows, and significant computation for constructing and recovering polynomials. To address these limitations, we propose two improved dealer-free threshold changeable secret sharing schemes. In our schemes, we construct polynomials to update secret shadows, and use two-variable one-way function to resist collusion attacks and secure the information stored by the combiner. We then demonstrate our schemes can adjust the threshold safely.

Odor Detection Thresholds in a Population of Older Adults

PubMed Central

Schubert, Carla R.; Fischer, Mary E.; Pinto, A. Alex; Klein, Barbara E.K.; Klein, Ronald; Cruickshanks, Karen J.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To measure odor detection thresholds and associated nasal and behavioral factors in an older adult population. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional cohort study METHODS Odor detection thresholds were obtained using an automated olfactometer on 832 participants, aged 68–99 (mean age 77) years in the 21-year (2013–2016) follow-up visit of the Epidemiology of Hearing Loss Study. RESULTS The mean odor detection threshold (ODT) score was 8.2 (range: 1–13; standard deviation = 2.54), corresponding to a n-butanol concentration of slightly less than 0.03%. Older participants were significantly more likely to have lower (worse) ODT scores than younger participants (p<0.001). There were no significant differences in mean ODT scores between men and women. Older age was significantly associated with worse performance in multivariable regression models and exercising at least once a week was associated with a reduced odds of having a low (≤5) ODT score. Cognitive impairment was also associated with poor performance while a history of allergies or a deviated septum were associated with better performance. CONCLUSION Odor detection threshold scores were worse in older age groups but similar between men and women in this large population of older adults. Regular exercise was associated with better odor detection thresholds adding to the evidence that decline in olfactory function with age may be partly preventable. PMID:28000220

PSYCHIATRIC COMORBIDITY DOES NOT ONLY DEPEND ON DIAGNOSTIC THRESHOLDS: AN ILLUSTRATION WITH MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER AND GENERALIZED ANXIETY DISORDER.

PubMed

van Loo, Hanna M; Schoevers, Robert A; Kendler, Kenneth S; de Jonge, Peter; Romeijn, Jan-Willem

2016-02-01

High rates of psychiatric comorbidity are subject of debate: To what extent do they depend on classification choices such as diagnostic thresholds? This paper investigates the influence of different thresholds on rates of comorbidity between major depressive disorder (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Point prevalence of comorbidity between MDD and GAD was measured in 74,092 subjects from the general population (LifeLines) according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV-TR) criteria. Comorbidity rates were compared for different thresholds by varying the number of necessary criteria from ≥ 1 to all nine symptoms for MDD, and from ≥ 1 to all seven symptoms for GAD. According to DSM thresholds, 0.86% had MDD only, 2.96% GAD only, and 1.14% both MDD and GAD (odds ratio (OR) 42.6). Lower thresholds for MDD led to higher rates of comorbidity (1.44% for ≥ 4 of nine MDD symptoms, OR 34.4), whereas lower thresholds for GAD hardly influenced comorbidity (1.16% for ≥ 3 of seven GAD symptoms, OR 38.8). Specific patterns in the distribution of symptoms within the population explained this finding: 37.3% of subjects with core criteria of MDD and GAD reported subthreshold MDD symptoms, whereas only 7.6% reported subthreshold GAD symptoms. Lower thresholds for MDD increased comorbidity with GAD, but not vice versa, owing to specific symptom patterns in the population. Generally, comorbidity rates result from both empirical symptom distributions and classification choices and cannot be reduced to either of these exclusively. This insight invites further research into the formation of disease concepts that allow for reliable predictions and targeted therapeutic interventions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impact of parental relationships in maximum lod score affected sib-pair method.

PubMed

Leutenegger, Anne-Louise; Génin, Emmanuelle; Thompson, Elizabeth A; Clerget-Darpoux, Françoise

2002-11-01

Many studies are done in small isolated populations and populations where marriages between relatives are encouraged. In this paper, we point out some problems with applying the maximum lod score (MLS) method (Risch, [1990] Am. J. Hum. Genet. 46:242-253) in these populations where relationships exist between the two parents of the affected sib-pairs. Characterizing the parental relationships by the kinship coefficient between the parents (f), the maternal inbreeding coefficient (alpha(m), and the paternal inbreeding coefficient (alpha(p)), we explored the relationship between the identity by descent (IBD) vector expected under the null hypothesis of no linkage and these quantities. We find that the expected IBD vector is no longer (0.25, 0.5, 0.25) when f, alpha(m), and alpha(p) differ from zero. In addition, the expected IBD vector does not always follow the triangle constraints recommended by Holmans ([1993] Am. J. Hum. Genet. 52:362-374). So the classically used MLS statistic needs to be adapted to the presence of parental relationships. We modified the software GENEHUNTER (Kruglyak et al. [1996] Am. J. Hum. Genet. 58: 1347-1363) to do so. Indeed, the current version of the software does not compute the likelihood properly under the null hypothesis. We studied the adapted statistic by simulating data on three different family structures: (1) parents are double first cousins (f=0.125, alpha(m)=alpha(p)=0), (2) each parent is the offspring of first cousins (f=0, alpha(m)=alpha(p)=0.0625), and (3) parents are related as in the pedigree from Goddard et al. ([1996] Am. J. Hum. Genet. 58:1286-1302) (f=0.109, alpha(m)=alpha(p)=0.0625). The appropriate threshold needs to be derived for each case in order to get the correct type I error. And using the classical statistic in the presence of both parental kinship and parental inbreeding almost always leads to false conclusions. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Changing climate in Hungary and trends in the annual number of heat stress days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solymosi, Norbert; Torma, Csaba; Kern, Anikó; Maróti-Agóts, Ákos; Barcza, Zoltán; Könyves, László; Berke, Olaf; Reiczigel, Jenő

2010-07-01

Global climate change can have serious direct effects on animal health and production through heat stress. In Hungary, the number of heat stress days per year (YNHD), i.e., days when the temperature humidity index (THI) is above a specific comfort threshold, has increased in recent years based on observed meteorological data. Between 1973 and 2008, the countrywide average increase in YNHD was 4.1% per year. Climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCM) were used to predict possible changes in YNHD for the near future (2021-2050) relative to the reference period (1961-1990). This comparison shows that, in Hungary, the 30-year mean of YNHD is expected to increase by between 1 and 27 days, depending on the RCM used. Half of the scenarios investigated in this study predicted that, in large parts of Hungary, YNHD will increase by at least 1 week. However, the increase observed in the past, and that predicted for the near future, is spatially heterogeneous, and areas that currently have large cattle populations are expected to be affected more severely than other regions.

Gender role expectations of pain mediate sex differences in cold pain responses in healthy Libyans.

PubMed

Alabas, O A; Tashani, O A; Johnson, M I

2012-02-01

Previous studies found a relationship between response to experimentally-induced pain and scores for the gender role expectations of pain (GREP) questionnaire. Findings were similar in individuals from America, Portugal and Israel suggesting that gender role expectations may be universal. The aim of this study was to translate and validate Arabic GREP using Factor Analysis and to investigate if sex differences to cold-pressor pain in healthy Libyan men and women are mediated through stereotypical social constructs of gender role expectations and/or pain-related anxiety. One hundred fourteen university students (58 women) underwent two cycles of cold pressor pain test to measure pain threshold, tolerance, intensity, and unpleasantness. Participants also completed the Arabic GREP questionnaire and the Pain Anxiety Symptom Scale-Short form (PASS-20). It was found that Libyan men had higher pain thresholds and tolerances than women (mean difference, 95% CI: threshold = 4.69 (s), -0.72 to 10.1, p = 0.005; tolerance = 13.46 (s), 0.5-26.4, p = 0.018). There were significant differences between sexes in 6 out of 12 GREP items (p < 0.004 after Bonferonni adjustment). The results of mediational analysis showed that GREP factors were the mediators of the effects of sex on pain threshold (z = -2.452, p = 0.014 for Self Sensitivity); (z = -2.563, p = 0.01, for Self Endurance) and on pain tolerance (z = -2.538, p = 0.01 for Self Endurance). In conclusion, sex differences in response to pain were mediated by gender role expectations of pain but not pain-related anxiety. © 2011 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

DOE PAGES

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian -Zhu

2018-01-05

Here, the underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accuratelymore » described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.« less

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian -Zhu

Here, the underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accuratelymore » described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.« less

Kinky thresholds revisited: opportunity costs differ in the NE and SW quadrants.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon

2015-02-01

Historically, a kinked threshold line on the cost-effectiveness plane at the origin was suggested due to differences in willingness to pay (WTP) for health gain with trade-offs in the north-east (NE) quadrant versus willingness to accept (WTA) cost reductions for health loss with trade-offs in the south-west (SW) quadrant. Empirically, WTA is greater than WTP for equivalent units of health, a finding supported by loss aversion under prospect theory. More recently, appropriate threshold values for health effects have been shown to require an endogenous consideration of the opportunity cost of alternative actions in budget-constrained health systems, but also allocative and displacement inefficiency observed in health system practice. Allocative and displacement inefficiency arise in health systems where the least cost-effective program in contraction has a higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER = m) than the most cost-effective program in expansion (ICER = n) and displaced services (ICER = d), respectively. The health shadow price derived by Pekarsky, [Formula: see text] reflects the opportunity cost of best alternative adoption and financing actions in reimbursing new technology with expected incremental costs and net effect allowing for allocative (n < m), and displacement, inefficiency (d < m). This provides an appropriate threshold value for the NE quadrant. In this paper, I show that for trade-offs in the SW quadrant, where new strategies have lower expected net cost while lower expected net effect than current practice, the opportunity cost is contraction of the least cost-effective program, with threshold ICER m. That is, in the SW quadrant, the cost reduction per unit of decreased effect should be compared with the appropriate opportunity cost, best alternative generation of funding. Consequently, appropriate consideration of opportunity cost produces a kink in the threshold at the origin, with the health shadow price in the NE quadrant and ICER of the least cost-effective program in contraction (m) in the SW quadrant having the same general shape as that previously suggested by WTP versus WTA. The extent of this kink depends on the degree of allocative and displacement inefficiency, with no kink in the threshold line strictly only appropriate with complete allocative and displacement efficiency, that is n = d = m.

Changes in ganglion cell physiology during retinal degeneration influence excitability by prosthetic electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Alice; Ratliff, Charles; Sampath, Alapakkam; Weiland, James

2016-04-01

Objective. Here we investigate ganglion cell physiology in healthy and degenerating retina to test its influence on threshold to electrical stimulation. Approach. Age-related Macular Degeneration and Retinitis Pigmentosa cause blindness via outer retinal degeneration. Inner retinal pathways that transmit visual information to the central brain remain intact, so direct electrical stimulation from prosthetic devices offers the possibility for visual restoration. Since inner retinal physiology changes during degeneration, we characterize physiological properties and responses to electrical stimulation in retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) of both wild type mice and the rd10 mouse model of retinal degeneration. Main results. Our aggregate results support previous observations that elevated thresholds characterize diseased retinas. However, a physiology-driven classification scheme reveals distinct sub-populations of ganglion cells with thresholds either normal or strongly elevated compared to wild-type. When these populations are combined, only a weakly elevated threshold with large variance is observed. The cells with normal threshold are more depolarized at rest and exhibit periodic oscillations. Significance. During degeneration, physiological changes in RGCs affect the threshold stimulation currents required to evoke action potentials.

Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy.

PubMed

Grebenstein, Patricia E; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A; Pentel, Paul R; LeSage, Mark G

2015-06-01

The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self-administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy*

PubMed Central

Grebenstein, Patricia E.; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A.; Pentel, Paul R.; LeSage, Mark G.

2015-01-01

Background The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. Methods The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self- administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Results Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. Conclusions These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. PMID:25891231

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J; Wilkinson, Paul; Kovats, R Sari; Pattenden, Sam; Hajat, Shakoor; Armstrong, Ben; Vajanapoom, Nitaya; Niciu, Emilia M; Mahomed, Hassan; Kingkeow, Chamnong; Kosnik, Mitja; O'Neill, Marie S; Romieu, Isabelle; Ramirez-Aguilar, Matiana; Barreto, Mauricio L; Gouveia, Nelson; Nikiforov, Bojidar

2008-10-01

This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

Critical tissue residue approach linking accumulated metals in aquatic insects to population and community-level effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, Travis S.; Clements, William H.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Mitchell, Katharine A.; Church, Stan E.; Wanty, Richard B.; San Juan, Carma A.; Adams, Monique; Lamothe, Paul J.

2011-01-01

Whole body Zn concentrations in individuals (n = 825) from three aquatic insect taxa (mayflies Rhithrogena spp. and Drunella spp. and the caddisfly Arctopsyche grandis) were used to predict effects on populations and communities (n = 149 samples). Both mayflies accumulated significantly more Zn than the caddisfly. The presence/absence of Drunella spp. most reliably distinguished sites with low and high Zn concentrations; however, population densities of mayflies were more sensitive to increases in accumulated Zn. Critical tissue residues (634 (mu or u)g/g Zn for Drunella spp. and 267 (mu or u)g/g Zn for Rhithrogena spp.) caused a 20% reduction in maximum (90th quantile) mayfly densities. These critical tissue residues were associated with exposure to 7.0 and 3.9 (mu or u)g/L dissolved Zn for Drunella spp. and Rhithrogena spp., respectively. A threshold in a measure of taxonomic completeness (observed/expected) was observed at 5.4 (mu or u)g/L dissolved Zn. Dissolved Zn concentrations associated with critical tissue residues in mayflies were also associated with adverse effects in the aquatic community as a whole. These effects on populations and communities occurred at Zn concentrations below the U.S. EPA hardness-adjusted continuous chronic criterion.

Fishing for lobsters indirectly increases epidemics in sea urchins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.

2004-01-01

Two ecological paradigms, the trophic cascade and the host-density threshold in disease, interact in the kelp-forest ecosystem to structure the community. To investigate what happens when a trophic cascade pushes a host population over a host-threshold density, I analyzed a 20-year data set of kelp forest communities at 16 sites in the region of the Channel Islands National Park, California, USA. Historically, lobsters, and perhaps other predators, kept urchin populations at low levels and kelp forests developed a community-level trophic cascade. In geographic areas where the main predators on urchins were fished, urchin populations increased to the extent that they overgrazed algae and starvation eventually limited urchin-population growth. Despite the limitation of urchin population size by food availability, urchin densities, at times, well exceeded the host-density threshold for epidemics. An urchin-specific bacterial disease entered the region after 1992 and acted as a density-dependent mortality source. Dense populations were more likely to experience epidemics and suffer higher mortality. Disease did not reduce the urchin population at a site to the density that predators previously did. Therefore, disease did not fully replace predators in the trophic cascade. These results indicate how fishing top predators can indirectly favor disease transmission in prey populations.

Analysis of key thresholds leading to upstream dependencies in global transboundary water bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munia, Hafsa Ahmed; Guillaume, Joseph; Kummu, Matti; Mirumachi, Naho; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Transboundary water bodies supply 60% of global fresh water flow and are home to about 1/3 of the world's population; creating hydrological, social and economic interdependencies between countries. Trade-offs between water users are delimited by certain thresholds, that, when crossed, result in changes in system behavior, often related to undesirable impacts. A wide variety of thresholds are potentially related to water availability and scarcity. Scarcity can occur because of the country's own water use, and that is potentially intensified by upstream water use. In general, increased water scarcity escalates the reliance on shared water resources, which increases interdependencies between riparian states. In this paper the upstream dependencies of global transboundary river basins are examined at the scale of sub-basin areas. We aim to assess how upstream water withdrawals cause changes in the scarcity categories, such that crossing thresholds is interpreted in terms of downstream dependency on upstream water availability. The thresholds are defined for different types of water availability on which a sub-basin relies: - reliable local runoff (available even in a dry year), - less reliable local water (available in the wet year), - reliable dry year inflows from possible upstream area, and - less reliable wet year inflows from upstream. Possible upstream withdrawals reduce available water downstream, influencing the latter two water availabilities. Upstream dependencies have then been categorized by comparing a sub-basin's scarcity category across different water availability types. When population (or water consumption) grows, the sub-basin satisfies its needs using less reliable water. Thus, the factors affecting the type of water availability being used are different not only for each type of dependency category, but also possibly for every sub- basin. Our results show that, in the case of stress (impacts from high use of water), in 104 (12%) sub- basins out of 886 sub-basins are dependent on upstream water, while in the case of shortage (impacts from insufficient water availability per person), 79 (9%) sub-basins out of 886 sub-basins dependent on upstream water. Categorization of the upstream dependency of the sub-basins helps to differentiate between areas where i) there is currently no dependency on upstream water, ii) upstream water withdrawals are sufficiently high that they alter the scarcity and dependency status, and iii) which are always dependent on upstream water regardless of upstream water withdrawals. Our dependency assessment is expected to considerably support the studies and discussions of hydro-political power relations and management practices in transboundary basins.

Bone-anchored Hearing Aids: correlation between pure-tone thresholds and outcome in three user groups.

PubMed

Pfiffner, Flurin; Kompis, Martin; Stieger, Christof

2009-10-01

To investigate correlations between preoperative hearing thresholds and postoperative aided thresholds and speech understanding of users of Bone-anchored Hearing Aids (BAHA). Such correlations may be useful to estimate the postoperative outcome with BAHA from preoperative data. Retrospective case review. Tertiary referral center. : Ninety-two adult unilaterally implanted BAHA users in 3 groups: (A) 24 subjects with a unilateral conductive hearing loss, (B) 38 subjects with a bilateral conductive hearing loss, and (C) 30 subjects with single-sided deafness. Preoperative air-conduction and bone-conduction thresholds and 3-month postoperative aided and unaided sound-field thresholds as well as speech understanding using German 2-digit numbers and monosyllabic words were measured and analyzed. Correlation between preoperative air-conduction and bone-conduction thresholds of the better and of the poorer ear and postoperative aided thresholds as well as correlations between gain in sound-field threshold and gain in speech understanding. Aided postoperative sound-field thresholds correlate best with BC threshold of the better ear (correlation coefficients, r2 = 0.237 to 0.419, p = 0.0006 to 0.0064, depending on the group of subjects). Improvements in sound-field threshold correspond to improvements in speech understanding. When estimating expected postoperative aided sound-field thresholds of BAHA users from preoperative hearing thresholds, the BC threshold of the better ear should be used. For the patient groups considered, speech understanding in quiet can be estimated from the improvement in sound-field thresholds.

Better Informing Decision Making with Multiple Outcomes Cost-Effectiveness Analysis under Uncertainty in Cost-Disutility Space

PubMed Central

McCaffrey, Nikki; Agar, Meera; Harlum, Janeane; Karnon, Jonathon; Currow, David; Eckermann, Simon

2015-01-01

Introduction Comparing multiple, diverse outcomes with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is important, yet challenging in areas like palliative care where domains are unamenable to integration with survival. Generic multi-attribute utility values exclude important domains and non-health outcomes, while partial analyses—where outcomes are considered separately, with their joint relationship under uncertainty ignored—lead to incorrect inference regarding preferred strategies. Objective The objective of this paper is to consider whether such decision making can be better informed with alternative presentation and summary measures, extending methods previously shown to have advantages in multiple strategy comparison. Methods Multiple outcomes CEA of a home-based palliative care model (PEACH) relative to usual care is undertaken in cost disutility (CDU) space and compared with analysis on the cost-effectiveness plane. Summary measures developed for comparing strategies across potential threshold values for multiple outcomes include: expected net loss (ENL) planes quantifying differences in expected net benefit; the ENL contour identifying preferred strategies minimising ENL and their expected value of perfect information; and cost-effectiveness acceptability planes showing probability of strategies minimising ENL. Results Conventional analysis suggests PEACH is cost-effective when the threshold value per additional day at home ( 1) exceeds $1,068 or dominated by usual care when only the proportion of home deaths is considered. In contrast, neither alternative dominate in CDU space where cost and outcomes are jointly considered, with the optimal strategy depending on threshold values. For example, PEACH minimises ENL when 1=$2,000 and 2=$2,000 (threshold value for dying at home), with a 51.6% chance of PEACH being cost-effective. Conclusion Comparison in CDU space and associated summary measures have distinct advantages to multiple domain comparisons, aiding transparent and robust joint comparison of costs and multiple effects under uncertainty across potential threshold values for effect, better informing net benefit assessment and related reimbursement and research decisions. PMID:25751629

White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; McKann, Patrick C.; Pruitt, Lori; King, R. Andrew; Runge, Michael C.; Russell, Robin E.

2013-01-01

White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.

Variation in Ecophysiological Traits and Drought Tolerance of Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Seedlings from Different Populations

PubMed Central

Cocozza, Claudia; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, L'ubica; Marino, Stefano; Maiuro, Lucia; Alvino, Arturo; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Bolte, Andreas; Tognetti, Roberto

2016-01-01

Frequency and intensity of heat waves and drought events are expected to increase in Europe due to climate change. European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is one of the most important native tree species in Europe. Beech populations originating throughout its native range were selected for common-garden experiments with the aim to determine whether there are functional variations in drought stress responses among different populations. One-year old seedlings from four to seven beech populations were grown and drought-treated in a greenhouse, replicating the experiment at two contrasting sites, in Italy (Mediterranean mountains) and Germany (Central Europe). Experimental findings indicated that: (1) drought (water stress) mainly affected gas exchange describing a critical threshold of drought response between 30 and 26% SWA for photosynthetic rate and Ci/Ca, respectively; (2) the Ci to Ca ratio increased substantially with severe water stress suggesting a stable instantaneous water use efficiency and an efficient regulation capacity of water balance achieved by a tight stomatal control; (3) there was a different response to water stress among the considered beech populations, differently combining traits, although there was not a well-defined variability in drought tolerance. A combined analysis of functional and structural traits for detecting stress signals in beech seedlings is suggested to assess plant performance under limiting moisture conditions and, consequently, to estimate evolutionary potential of beech under a changing environmental scenario. PMID:27446118

Complete next-to-leading-order calculation for pion production in nucleon-nucleon collisions at threshold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanhart, C.; Kaiser, N.

2002-11-01

Based on a counting scheme that explicitly takes into account the large momentum (Mmπ) characteristic for pion production in nucleon-nucleon collisions we calculate all diagrams for the reaction NN-->NNπ at threshold up to next-to-leading-order. At this order there are no free parameters and the size of the next-to-leading- order contributions is in line with the expectation from power counting. The sum of loop corrections at that order vanishes for the process pp-->ppπ0 at threshold. The total contribution at next-to-leading-order from loop diagrams that include the delta degree of freedom vanishes at threshold in both reaction channels pp-->ppπ0,pnπ+.

Vibrotactile perception thresholds at the sole of the foot: effects of contact force and probe indentation.

PubMed

Gu, Cheng; Griffin, Michael J

2012-05-01

When using vibrotactile thresholds to investigate neuropathy in the fingers, the indentation of a vibrating probe, and the force applied to a static surround around a vibrating probe, affect thresholds. This study was designed to investigate the effects on vibrotactile perception thresholds at the sole of the foot of probe indentation (i.e. height of a vibrating probe relative to a static surround) and the force applied to the static surround. Thresholds at 20 Hz (expected to be mediated by the NP I channel) and at 160 Hz (expected to be mediated by the Pacinian channel) were obtained at the hallux (i.e. greater toe) and the ball of the foot on 14 healthy subjects. In one condition, the height of the vibrating probe was varied to 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 mm above a static surround with 4-N force applied to the surround. In a second condition, the force applied to the surround was varied to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 N while using a probe height of 1mm. Thresholds at 20 Hz decreased with increasing probe height from 0 to 1 mm but showed no significant variation between 2, 3, and 4mm at either the hallux or the ball of the foot. Thresholds at 160 Hz decreased with increasing probe height from 0 to 4 mm at both the hallux and the ball of the foot. Thresholds at 20 Hz obtained with 1-N surround force were higher than thresholds obtained with 2 N, but there was no significant difference with surround forces from 2 to 6 N at either the hallux or the ball of the foot. Thresholds at 160 Hz were unaffected by variations in surround force at the ball of the foot but tended to decrease with increasing force at the hallux. It is concluded that a vibrating probe flush with a static surround, and a surround force in the range 2-4 N, are appropriate when measuring vibrotactile thresholds at the hallux and the ball of the foot with a 6-mm diameter contactor and a 2-mm gap to the static surround. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The reactor antineutrino anomaly and low energy threshold neutrino experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cañas, B. C.; Garcés, E. A.; Miranda, O. G.; Parada, A.

2018-01-01

Short distance reactor antineutrino experiments measure an antineutrino spectrum a few percent lower than expected from theoretical predictions. In this work we study the potential of low energy threshold reactor experiments in the context of a light sterile neutrino signal. We discuss the perspectives of the recently detected coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering in future reactor antineutrino experiments. We find that the expectations to improve the current constraints on the mixing with sterile neutrinos are promising. We also analyze the measurements of antineutrino scattering off electrons from short distance reactor experiments. In this case, the statistics is not competitive with inverse beta decay experiments, although future experiments might play a role when compare it with the Gallium anomaly.

Current maternal age recommendations for prenatal diagnosis: a reappraisal using the expected utility theory.

PubMed

Sicherman, N; Bombard, A T; Rappoport, P

1995-01-01

The expected utility theory suggests eliminating an age-specific criterion for recommending prenatal diagnosis to patients. We isolate the factors which patients and physicians need to consider intelligently in prenatal diagnosis, and show that the sole use of a threshold age as a screening device is inadequate. Such a threshold fails to consider adequately patients' attitudes regarding many of the possible outcomes of prenatal diagnosis; in particular, the birth of a chromosomally abnormal child and procedural-related miscarriages. It also precludes testing younger women and encourages testing in patients who do not necessarily require or desire it. All pregnant women should be informed about their prenatal diagnosis options, screening techniques, and diagnostic procedures, including their respective limitations, risks, and benefits.

Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics.

PubMed

de Souza, David R; Tomé, Tânia; Pinho, Suani T R; Barreto, Florisneide R; de Oliveira, Mário J

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, such as dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed of two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. The human population follows a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type dynamics and the mosquito population follows a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) type dynamics. The human infection is caused by infected mosquitoes and vice versa, so that the SIS and SIR dynamics are interconnected. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. The threshold of the disease is also obtained by performing numerical simulations. We found that for certain values of the infection rates the spreading of the disease is impossible, for any death rate of infected mosquitoes.

Of elephants and blind men: Deer management in the U.S. National Parks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, W.F.; Underwood, H.B.

1999-01-01

Overabundant populations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are becoming common in the eastern United States. Faced with burgeoning deer populations in eastern parks, the National Park Service (NPS) formulated policy based on its long experience with ungulate management in western parks. That the NPS failed to find a management solution acceptable to its many constituencies was inevitable. Like blind men touching different parts of an elephant and disagreeing about its form, those engaged in the debate about deer management in parks are viewing different parts of the ecological system. None has seen the entire system, and consequently, there is neither common agreement on the nature of the problem nor on the solutions. We explore the quandary of deer management in eastern parks by addressing three questions: (1) Can the National Park Service reconcile its management goals with those of its neighbors? (2) Can thresholds be identified for determining when to intervene in natural processes? (3) Is there a scientific foundation for proceeding with effective management of deer? We argue that reconciling the NPS management with that of state conservation agencies is not possible because management policy guides these agencies in opposite directions: the NPS is charged with limiting human impact on ecological processes, and state agencies are charged with exerting human control over population abundance. Questions about thresholds and a scientific basis for management arise from concern that irrupting deer populations are a manifestation of disrupted natural processes. Several population growth paradigms are at the heart of this ecological question. The science provides no consensus about which of these paradigms are appropriate to deer in eastern ecosystems. Thus, it is premature to expect science to identify if or when natural processes have been disrupted. While the NPS cannot effectively achieve its goals without better science, neither can it wait for science to fully understand the dynamics of plant-herbivore interactions. The best hope for resolving both the biological and political dilemmas surrounding deer management is through an adaptive management approach.

An adaptive design for updating the threshold value of a continuous biomarker

PubMed Central

Spencer, Amy V.; Harbron, Chris; Mander, Adrian; Wason, James; Peers, Ian

2017-01-01

Potential predictive biomarkers are often measured on a continuous scale, but in practice, a threshold value to divide the patient population into biomarker ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ is desirable. Early phase clinical trials are increasingly using biomarkers for patient selection, but at this stage, it is likely that little will be known about the relationship between the biomarker and the treatment outcome. We describe a single-arm trial design with adaptive enrichment, which can increase power to demonstrate efficacy within a patient subpopulation, the parameters of which are also estimated. Our design enables us to learn about the biomarker and optimally adjust the threshold during the study, using a combination of generalised linear modelling and Bayesian prediction. At the final analysis, a binomial exact test is carried out, allowing the hypothesis that ‘no population subset exists in which the novel treatment has a desirable response rate’ to be tested. Through extensive simulations, we are able to show increased power over fixed threshold methods in many situations without increasing the type-I error rate. We also show that estimates of the threshold, which defines the population subset, are unbiased and often more precise than those from fixed threshold studies. We provide an example of the method applied (retrospectively) to publically available data from a study of the use of tamoxifen after mastectomy by the German Breast Study Group, where progesterone receptor is the biomarker of interest. PMID:27417407

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nielsen, Michael A.; School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072; Dawson, Christopher M.

The one-way quantum computing model introduced by Raussendorf and Briegel [Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 5188 (2001)] shows that it is possible to quantum compute using only a fixed entangled resource known as a cluster state, and adaptive single-qubit measurements. This model is the basis for several practical proposals for quantum computation, including a promising proposal for optical quantum computation based on cluster states [M. A. Nielsen, Phys. Rev. Lett. (to be published), quant-ph/0402005]. A significant open question is whether such proposals are scalable in the presence of physically realistic noise. In this paper we prove two threshold theorems which showmore » that scalable fault-tolerant quantum computation may be achieved in implementations based on cluster states, provided the noise in the implementations is below some constant threshold value. Our first threshold theorem applies to a class of implementations in which entangling gates are applied deterministically, but with a small amount of noise. We expect this threshold to be applicable in a wide variety of physical systems. Our second threshold theorem is specifically adapted to proposals such as the optical cluster-state proposal, in which nondeterministic entangling gates are used. A critical technical component of our proofs is two powerful theorems which relate the properties of noisy unitary operations restricted to act on a subspace of state space to extensions of those operations acting on the entire state space. We expect these theorems to have a variety of applications in other areas of quantum-information science.« less

Projecting the epidemiological effect, cost-effectiveness and transmission of HIV drug resistance in Vietnam associated with viral load monitoring strategies.

PubMed

Pham, Quang Duy; Wilson, David P; Nguyen, Thuong Vu; Do, Nhan Thi; Truong, Lien Xuan; Nguyen, Long Thanh; Zhang, Lei

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the potential epidemiological impact of viral load (VL) monitoring and its cost-effectiveness in Vietnam, where transmitted HIV drug resistance (TDR) prevalence has increased from <5% to 5%-15% in the past decade. Using a population-based mathematical model driven by data from Vietnam, we simulated scenarios of various combinations of VL testing coverage, VL thresholds for second-line ART initiation and availability of HIV drug-resistance tests. We assessed the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for each scenario. Projecting expected ART scale-up levels, to approximately double the number of people on ART by 2030, will lead to an estimated 18 510 cases (95% CI: 9120-34 600 cases) of TDR and 55 180 cases (95% CI: 40 540-65 900 cases) of acquired drug resistance (ADR) in the absence of VL monitoring. This projection corresponds to a TDR prevalence of 16% (95% CI: 11%-24%) and ADR of 18% (95% CI: 15%-20%). Annual or biennial VL monitoring with 30% coverage is expected to relieve 12%-31% of TDR (2260-5860 cases), 25%-59% of ADR (9620-22 650 cases), 2%-6% of HIV-related deaths (360-880 cases) and 19 270-51 400 DALYs during 2015-30. The 30% coverage of VL monitoring is estimated to cost US$4848-5154 per DALY averted. The projected additional cost for implementing this strategy is US$105-268 million over 2015-30. Our study suggests that a programmatically achievable 30% coverage of VL monitoring can have considerable benefits for individuals and leads to population health benefits by reducing the overall national burden of HIV drug resistance. It is marginally cost-effective according to common willingness-to-pay thresholds. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bound-Electron Nonlinearity Beyond the Ionization Threshold.

PubMed

Wahlstrand, J K; Zahedpour, S; Bahl, A; Kolesik, M; Milchberg, H M

2018-05-04

We present absolute space- and time-resolved measurements of the ultrafast laser-driven nonlinear polarizability in argon, krypton, xenon, nitrogen, and oxygen up to ionization fractions of a few percent. These measurements enable determination of the strongly nonperturbative bound-electron nonlinear polarizability well beyond the ionization threshold, where it is found to remain approximately quadratic in the laser field, a result normally expected at much lower intensities where perturbation theory applies.

Bound-Electron Nonlinearity Beyond the Ionization Threshold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahlstrand, J. K.; Zahedpour, S.; Bahl, A.; Kolesik, M.; Milchberg, H. M.

2018-05-01

We present absolute space- and time-resolved measurements of the ultrafast laser-driven nonlinear polarizability in argon, krypton, xenon, nitrogen, and oxygen up to ionization fractions of a few percent. These measurements enable determination of the strongly nonperturbative bound-electron nonlinear polarizability well beyond the ionization threshold, where it is found to remain approximately quadratic in the laser field, a result normally expected at much lower intensities where perturbation theory applies.

The Relationship between MOC Reflex and Masked Threshold

PubMed Central

Garinis, Angela; Werner, Lynne; Abdala, Carolina

2011-01-01

Otoacoustic emission (OAE) amplitude can be reduced by acoustic stimulation. This effect is produced by the medial olivocochlear (MOC) reflex. Past studies have shown that the MOC reflex is related to listening in noise and attention. In the present study, the relationship between strength of the contralateral MOC reflex and masked threshold was investigated in 19 adults. Detection thresholds were determined for a 1000-Hz, 300-ms tone presented simultaneously with one repetition of a 300-ms masker in an ongoing train of 300-ms masker bursts at 600-ms intervals. Three masking conditions were tested: 1) broadband noise 2) a fixed-frequency 4-tone complex masker and 3) a random-frequency 4-tone complex masker. Broadband noise was expected to produce energetic masking and the tonal maskers were expected to produce informational masking in some listeners. DPOAEs were recorded at fine frequency interval from 500 to 4000 Hz, with and without contralateral acoustic stimulation. MOC reflex strength was estimated as a reduction in baseline level and a shift in frequency of DPOAE fine-structure maxima near 1000-Hz. MOC reflex and psychophysical testing were completed in separate sessions. Individuals with poorer thresholds in broadband noise and in random-frequency maskers were found to have stronger MOC reflexes. PMID:21878379

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1,2 JJ Table JJ-1 to Subpart JJ of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING...

"Now I see it, now I don't": Determining Threshold Levels of Facial Emotion Recognition for Use in Patient Populations.

PubMed

Chiu, Isabelle; Gfrörer, Regina I; Piguet, Olivier; Berres, Manfred; Monsch, Andreas U; Sollberger, Marc

2015-08-01

The importance of including measures of emotion processing, such as tests of facial emotion recognition (FER), as part of a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment is being increasingly recognized. In clinical settings, FER tests need to be sensitive, short, and easy to administer, given the limited time available and patient limitations. Current tests, however, commonly use stimuli that either display prototypical emotions, bearing the risk of ceiling effects and unequal task difficulty, or are cognitively too demanding and time-consuming. To overcome these limitations in FER testing in patient populations, we aimed to define FER threshold levels for the six basic emotions in healthy individuals. Forty-nine healthy individuals between 52 and 79 years of age were asked to identify the six basic emotions at different intensity levels (25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, and 125% of the prototypical emotion). Analyses uncovered differing threshold levels across emotions and sex of facial stimuli, ranging from 50% up to 100% intensities. Using these findings as "healthy population benchmarks", we propose to apply these threshold levels to clinical populations either as facial emotion recognition or intensity rating tasks. As part of any comprehensive social cognition test battery, this approach should allow for a rapid and sensitive assessment of potential FER deficits.

Mathematical Model of Naive T Cell Division and Survival IL-7 Thresholds.

PubMed

Reynolds, Joseph; Coles, Mark; Lythe, Grant; Molina-París, Carmen

2013-01-01

We develop a mathematical model of the peripheral naive T cell population to study the change in human naive T cell numbers from birth to adulthood, incorporating thymic output and the availability of interleukin-7 (IL-7). The model is formulated as three ordinary differential equations: two describe T cell numbers, in a resting state and progressing through the cell cycle. The third is introduced to describe changes in IL-7 availability. Thymic output is a decreasing function of time, representative of the thymic atrophy observed in aging humans. Each T cell is assumed to possess two interleukin-7 receptor (IL-7R) signaling thresholds: a survival threshold and a second, higher, proliferation threshold. If the IL-7R signaling strength is below its survival threshold, a cell may undergo apoptosis. When the signaling strength is above the survival threshold, but below the proliferation threshold, the cell survives but does not divide. Signaling strength above the proliferation threshold enables entry into cell cycle. Assuming that individual cell thresholds are log-normally distributed, we derive population-average rates for apoptosis and entry into cell cycle. We have analyzed the adiabatic change in homeostasis as thymic output decreases. With a parameter set representative of a healthy individual, the model predicts a unique equilibrium number of T cells. In a parameter range representative of persistent viral or bacterial infection, where naive T cell cycle progression is impaired, a decrease in thymic output may result in the collapse of the naive T cell repertoire.

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

Correlations among within-channel and between-channel auditory gap-detection thresholds in normal listeners.

PubMed

Phillips, Dennis P; Smith, Jennifer C

2004-01-01

We obtained data on within-channel and between-channel auditory temporal gap-detection acuity in the normal population. Ninety-five normal listeners were tested for gap-detection thresholds, for conditions in which the gap was bounded by spectrally identical, and by spectrally different, acoustic markers. Separate thresholds were obtained with the use of an adaptive tracking method, for gaps delimited by narrowband noise bursts centred on 1.0 kHz, noise bursts centred on 4.0 kHz, and for gaps bounded by a leading marker of 4.0 kHz noise and a trailing marker of 1.0 kHz noise. Gap thresholds were lowest for silent periods bounded by identical markers--'within-channel' stimuli. Gap thresholds were significantly longer for the between-channel stimulus--silent periods bounded by unidentical markers (p < 0.0001). Thresholds for the two within-channel tasks were highly correlated (R = 0.76). Thresholds for the between-channel stimulus were weakly correlated with thresholds for the within-channel stimuli (1.0 kHz, R = 0.39; and 4.0 kHz, R = 0.46). The relatively poor predictability of between-channel thresholds from the within-channel thresholds is new evidence on the separability of the mechanisms that mediate performance of the two tasks. The data confirm that the acuity difference for the tasks, which has previously been demonstrated in only small numbers of highly trained listeners, extends to a population of untrained listeners. The acuity of the between-channel mechanism may be relevant to the formation of voice-onset time-category boundaries in speech perception.

The variance of length of stay and the optimal DRG outlier payments.

PubMed

Felder, Stefan

2009-09-01

Prospective payment schemes in health care often include supply-side insurance for cost outliers. In hospital reimbursement, prospective payments for patient discharges, based on their classification into diagnosis related group (DRGs), are complemented by outlier payments for long stay patients. The outlier scheme fixes the length of stay (LOS) threshold, constraining the profit risk of the hospitals. In most DRG systems, this threshold increases with the standard deviation of the LOS distribution. The present paper addresses the adequacy of this DRG outlier threshold rule for risk-averse hospitals with preferences depending on the expected value and the variance of profits. It first shows that the optimal threshold solves the hospital's tradeoff between higher profit risk and lower premium loading payments. It then demonstrates for normally distributed truncated LOS that the optimal outlier threshold indeed decreases with an increase in the standard deviation.

Human sensitivity to vertical self-motion.

PubMed

Nesti, Alessandro; Barnett-Cowan, Michael; Macneilage, Paul R; Bülthoff, Heinrich H

2014-01-01

Perceiving vertical self-motion is crucial for maintaining balance as well as for controlling an aircraft. Whereas heave absolute thresholds have been exhaustively studied, little work has been done in investigating how vertical sensitivity depends on motion intensity (i.e., differential thresholds). Here we measure human sensitivity for 1-Hz sinusoidal accelerations for 10 participants in darkness. Absolute and differential thresholds are measured for upward and downward translations independently at 5 different peak amplitudes ranging from 0 to 2 m/s(2). Overall vertical differential thresholds are higher than horizontal differential thresholds found in the literature. Psychometric functions are fit in linear and logarithmic space, with goodness of fit being similar in both cases. Differential thresholds are higher for upward as compared to downward motion and increase with stimulus intensity following a trend best described by two power laws. The power laws' exponents of 0.60 and 0.42 for upward and downward motion, respectively, deviate from Weber's Law in that thresholds increase less than expected at high stimulus intensity. We speculate that increased sensitivity at high accelerations and greater sensitivity to downward than upward self-motion may reflect adaptations to avoid falling.

Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

2007-01-01

We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K; Smit, Ben

2015-01-01

We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K

2015-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning. PMID:27293732

EFFECTIVENESS OF SELECTION IN REDUCING THE GENETIC LOAD IN POPULATIONS OF PEROMYSCUS POLIONOTUS DURING GENERATIONS OF INBREEDING.

PubMed

Lacy, Robert C; Ballou, Jonathan D

1998-06-01

It has been hypothesized that natural selection reduces the "genetic load" of deleterious alleles from populations that inbreed during bottlenecks, thereby ameliorating impacts of future inbreeding. We tested the efficiency with which natural selection purges deleterious alleles from three subspecies of Peromyscus polionotus during 10 generations of laboratory inbreeding by monitoring pairing success, litter size, viability, and growth in 3604 litters produced from 3058 pairs. In P. p. subgriseus, there was no reduction across generations in inbreeding depression in any of the fitness components. Strongly deleterious recessive alleles may have been removed previously during episodes of local inbreeding in the wild, and the residual genetic load in this population was not further reduced by selection in the lab. In P. p. rhoadsi, four of seven fitness components did show a reduction of the genetic load with continued inbreeding. The average reduction in the genetic load was as expected if inbreeding depression in this population is caused by highly deleterious recessive alleles that are efficiently removed by selection. For P. p. leucocephalus a population that experiences periodic bottlenecks in the wild, the effect of further inbreeding in the laboratory was to exacerbate rather than reduce the genetic load. Recessive deleterious alleles may have been removed from this population during repeated bottlenecks in the wild; the population may be close to a threshold level of heterozygosity below which fitness declines rapidly. Thus, the effects of selection on inbreeding depression varied substantially among populations, perhaps due to different histories of inbreeding and selection. © 1998 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Variation in hearing within a wild population of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas).

PubMed

Mooney, T Aran; Castellote, Manuel; Quakenbush, Lori; Hobbs, Roderick; Gaglione, Eric; Goertz, Caroline

2018-05-08

Documenting hearing abilities is vital to understanding a species' acoustic ecology and for predicting the impacts of increasing anthropogenic noise. Cetaceans use sound for essential biological functions such as foraging, navigation and communication; hearing is considered to be their primary sensory modality. Yet, we know little regarding the hearing of most, if not all, cetacean populations, which limits our understanding of their sensory ecology, population level variability and the potential impacts of increasing anthropogenic noise. We obtained audiograms (5.6-150 kHz) of 26 wild beluga whales to measure hearing thresholds during capture-release events in Bristol Bay, AK, USA, using auditory evoked potential methods. The goal was to establish the baseline population audiogram, incidences of hearing loss and general variability in wild beluga whales. In general, belugas showed sensitive hearing with low thresholds (<80 dB) from 16 to 100 kHz, and most individuals (76%) responded to at least 120 kHz. Despite belugas often showing sensitive hearing, thresholds were usually above or approached the low ambient noise levels measured in the area, suggesting that a quiet environment may be associated with hearing sensitivity and that hearing thresholds in the most sensitive animals may have been masked. Although this is just one wild population, the success of the method suggests that it should be applied to other populations and species to better assess potential differences. Bristol Bay beluga audiograms showed substantial (30-70 dB) variation among individuals; this variation increased at higher frequencies. Differences among individual belugas reflect that testing multiple individuals of a population is necessary to best describe maximum sensitivity and population variance. The results of this study quadruple the number of individual beluga whales for which audiograms have been conducted and provide the first auditory data for a population of healthy wild odontocetes. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Synchronization of low- and high-threshold motor units.

PubMed

Defreitas, Jason M; Beck, Travis W; Ye, Xin; Stock, Matt S

2014-04-01

We examined the degree of synchronization for both low- and high-threshold motor unit (MU) pairs at high force levels. MU spike trains were recorded from the quadriceps during high-force isometric leg extensions. Short-term synchronization (between -6 and 6 ms) was calculated for every unique MU pair for each contraction. At high force levels, earlier recruited motor unit pairs (low-threshold) demonstrated relatively low levels of short-term synchronization (approximately 7.3% extra firings than would have been expected by chance). However, the magnitude of synchronization increased significantly and linearly with mean recruitment threshold (reaching 22.1% extra firings for motor unit pairs recruited above 70% MVC). Three potential mechanisms that could explain the observed differences in synchronization across motor unit types are proposed and discussed. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Quantifying Population-Level Risks Using an Individual-Based Model: Sea Otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-01-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500 000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2012; 8: 503–522. © 2012 SETAC PMID:22275071

Quantifying population-level risks using an individual-based model: sea otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

PubMed

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-07-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500,000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Estimation of a Constant False Alarm Rate Processing Loss for a High-Resolution Maritime Radar System

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

a sample with clutter of mean level y0 and noise of variance σ 2, with a threshold CACA zt β= . Using the results presented in [15, 16, 23], it can...level y0 and noise of variance σ 2, with a threshold CACA zt β= . Using (3.107) and (3.98), the expression for the expected Pd of a Swerling 2 target can

Threshold and Beyond: Modeling The Intensity Dependence of Auditory Responses

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

In many studies of auditory-evoked responses to low-intensity sounds, the response amplitude appears to increase roughly linearly with the sound level in decibels (dB), corresponding to a logarithmic intensity dependence. But the auditory system is assumed to be linear in the low-intensity limit. The goal of this study was to resolve the seeming contradiction. Based on assumptions about the rate-intensity functions of single auditory-nerve fibers and the pattern of cochlear excitation caused by a tone, a model for the gross response of the population of auditory nerve fibers was developed. In accordance with signal detection theory, the model denies the existence of a threshold. This implies that regarding the detection of a significant stimulus-related effect, a reduction in sound intensity can always be compensated for by increasing the measurement time, at least in theory. The model suggests that the gross response is proportional to intensity when the latter is low (range I), and a linear function of sound level at higher intensities (range III). For intensities in between, it is concluded that noisy experimental data may provide seemingly irrefutable evidence of a linear dependence on sound pressure (range II). In view of the small response amplitudes that are to be expected for intensity range I, direct observation of the predicted proportionality with intensity will generally be a challenging task for an experimenter. Although the model was developed for the auditory nerve, the basic conclusions are probably valid for higher levels of the auditory system, too, and might help to improve models for loudness at threshold. PMID:18008105

A principled approach to setting optimal diagnostic thresholds: where ROC and indifference curves meet.

PubMed

Irwin, R John; Irwin, Timothy C

2011-06-01

Making clinical decisions on the basis of diagnostic tests is an essential feature of medical practice and the choice of the decision threshold is therefore crucial. A test's optimal diagnostic threshold is the threshold that maximizes expected utility. It is given by the product of the prior odds of a disease and a measure of the importance of the diagnostic test's sensitivity relative to its specificity. Choosing this threshold is the same as choosing the point on the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve whose slope equals this product. We contend that a test's likelihood ratio is the canonical decision variable and contrast diagnostic thresholds based on likelihood ratio with two popular rules of thumb for choosing a threshold. The two rules are appealing because they have clear graphical interpretations, but they yield optimal thresholds only in special cases. The optimal rule can be given similar appeal by presenting indifference curves, each of which shows a set of equally good combinations of sensitivity and specificity. The indifference curve is tangent to the ROC curve at the optimal threshold. Whereas ROC curves show what is feasible, indifference curves show what is desirable. Together they show what should be chosen. Copyright © 2010 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of Johnson et al.'s speciation threshold model to apparent colonization times of island biotas.

PubMed

Ricklefs, Robert E; Bermingham, Eldredge

2004-08-01

Understanding patterns of diversity can be furthered by analysis of the dynamics of colonization, speciation, and extinction on islands using historical information provided by molecular phylogeography. The land birds of the Lesser Antilles are one of the most thoroughly described regional faunas in this context. In an analysis of colonization times, Ricklefs and Bermingham (2001) found that the cumulative distribution of lineages with respect to increasing time since colonization exhibits a striking change in slope at a genetic distance of about 2% mitochondrial DNA sequence divergence (about one million years). They further showed how this heterogeneity could be explained by either an abrupt increase in colonization rates or a mass extinction event. Cherry et al. (2002), referring to a model developed by Johnson et al. (2000), argued instead that the pattern resulted from a speciation threshold for reproductive isolation of island populations from their continental source populations. Prior to this threshold, genetic divergence is slowed by migration from the source, and species of varying age accumulate at a low genetic distance. After the threshold is reached, source and island populations diverge more rapidly, creating heterogeneity in the distribution of apparent ages of island taxa. We simulated of Johnson et al.'s speciation-threshold model, incorporating genetic divergence at rate k and fixation at rate M of genes that have migrated between the source and the island population. Fixation resets the divergence clock to zero. The speciation-threshold model fits the distribution of divergence times of Lesser Antillean birds well with biologically plausible parameter estimates. Application of the model to the Hawaiian avifauna, which does not exhibit marked heterogeneity of genetic divergence, and the West Indian herpetofauna, which does, required unreasonably high migration-fixation rates, several orders of magnitude greater than the colonization rate. However, the plausibility of the speciation-divergence model for Lesser Antillean birds emphasizes the importance of further investigation of historical biogeography on a regional scale for whole biotas, as well as the migration of genes between populations on long time scales and the achievement of reproductive isolation.

Resonances and thresholds in the Rydberg-level population of multiply charged ions at solid surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedeljković, Lj. D.; Nedeljković, N. N.

1998-12-01

We present a theoretical study of resonances and thresholds, two specific features of Rydberg-state formation of multiply charged ions (Z=6, 7, and 8) escaping a solid surface at intermediate velocities (v~1 a.u.) in the normal emergence geometry. The resonances are recognized in pronounced maxima of the experimentally observed population curves of Ar VIII ions for resonant values of the principal quantum number n=nres=11 and for the angular momentum quantum numbers l=1 and 2. Absence of optical signals in detectors of beam-foil experiments for n>nthr of S VI and Cl VII ions (with l=0, 1, and 2) and Ar VIII for l=0 is interpreted as a threshold phenomenon. An interplay between resonance and threshold effects is established within the framework of quantum dynamics of the low angular momentum Rydberg-state formation, based on a generalization of Demkov-Ostrovskii's charge-exchange model. In the model proposed, the Ar VIII resonances appear as a consequence of electron tunneling in the very vicinity of the ion-surface potential barrier top and at some critical ion-surface distances Rc. The observed thresholds are explained by means of a decay mechanism of ionic Rydberg states formed dominantly above the Fermi level EF of a solid conduction band. The theoretically predicted resonant and threshold values, nres and nthr of the principal quantum number n, as well as the obtained population probabilities Pnl=Pnl(v,Z), are in sufficiently good agreement with all available experimental findings.

An adaptive design for updating the threshold value of a continuous biomarker.

PubMed

Spencer, Amy V; Harbron, Chris; Mander, Adrian; Wason, James; Peers, Ian

2016-11-30

Potential predictive biomarkers are often measured on a continuous scale, but in practice, a threshold value to divide the patient population into biomarker 'positive' and 'negative' is desirable. Early phase clinical trials are increasingly using biomarkers for patient selection, but at this stage, it is likely that little will be known about the relationship between the biomarker and the treatment outcome. We describe a single-arm trial design with adaptive enrichment, which can increase power to demonstrate efficacy within a patient subpopulation, the parameters of which are also estimated. Our design enables us to learn about the biomarker and optimally adjust the threshold during the study, using a combination of generalised linear modelling and Bayesian prediction. At the final analysis, a binomial exact test is carried out, allowing the hypothesis that 'no population subset exists in which the novel treatment has a desirable response rate' to be tested. Through extensive simulations, we are able to show increased power over fixed threshold methods in many situations without increasing the type-I error rate. We also show that estimates of the threshold, which defines the population subset, are unbiased and often more precise than those from fixed threshold studies. We provide an example of the method applied (retrospectively) to publically available data from a study of the use of tamoxifen after mastectomy by the German Breast Study Group, where progesterone receptor is the biomarker of interest. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Taste sensitivity for monosodium glutamate and an increased liking of dietary protein.

PubMed

Luscombe-Marsh, Natalie D; Smeets, Astrid J P G; Westerterp-Plantenga, Margriet S

2008-04-01

The aim of the present study was to determine individuals' taste threshold for monosodium glutamate (MSG) alone and in combination with inosine 5'-monophosphate (IMP-5) and to examine if this threshold was related to an increase in sensory properties (including pleasantness of taste) and/or to one's preference for dietary protein over carbohydrate and fat. Using the triangle tasting method, the taste threshold was determined for thirty-six women and twenty-four men. Thresholds varied from zero to infinite as determined using a clear soup with added MSG in the concentration range of 0.1 to 0.8 % (w/w) MSG. Subjects rated fourteen sensory properties of the soup and also their 'liking', 'eating frequency' and 'preference' of twenty-two common high-protein, high-carbohydrate and high-fat food items. The taste threshold (and therefore sensitivity) of MSG was lowered from 0.33 (sem 0.24) to 0.26 (sem 0.22) % MSG when 0.25 % (w/w) IMP-5 was added. None of the sensory properties assessed was associated with the taste threshold of MSG +/- 0.25 % IMP-5 in the overall study population. However, the taste descriptor 'meatiness' was associated with the threshold data for individuals who could taste concentrations of

Threshold and subthreshold Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) and suicide ideation.

PubMed

Gilmour, Heather

2016-11-16

Subthreshold Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) has been reported to be at least as prevalent as threshold GAD and of comparable clinical significance. It is not clear if GAD is uniquely associated with the risk of suicide, or if psychiatric comorbidity drives the association. Data from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health were used to estimate the prevalence of threshold and subthreshold GAD in the household population aged 15 or older. As well, the relationship between GAD and suicide ideation was studied. Multivariate logistic regression was used in a sample of 24,785 people to identify significant associations, while adjusting for the confounding effects of sociodemographic factors and other mental disorders. In 2012, an estimated 722,000 Canadians aged 15 or older (2.6%) met the criteria for threshold GAD; an additional 2.3% (655,000) had subthreshold GAD. For people with threshold GAD, past 12-month suicide ideation was more prevalent among men than women (32.0% versus 21.2% respectively). In multivariate models that controlled sociodemographic factors, the odds of past 12-month suicide ideation among people with either past 12-month threshold or subthreshold GAD were significantly higher than the odds for those without GAD. When psychiatric comorbidity was also controlled, associations between threshold and subthreshold GAD and suicidal ideation were attenuated, but remained significant. Threshold and subthreshold GAD affect similar percentages of the Canadian household population. This study adds to the literature that has identified an independent association between threshold GAD and suicide ideation, and demonstrates that an association is also apparent for subthreshold GAD.

Thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of the amount of early-seral broadleaf forest at landscape scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Betts, M.G.; Hagar, J.C.; Rivers, J.W.; Alexander, J.D.; McGarigal, K.; McComb, B.C.

2010-01-01

Recent declines in broadleaf-dominated, early-seral forest globally as a function of intensive forest management and/or fire suppression have raised concern about the viability of populations dependent on such forest types. However, quantitative information about the strength and direction of species associations with broadleaf cover at landscape scales are rare. Uncovering such habitat relationships is essential for understanding the demography of species and in developing sound conservation strategies. It is particularly important to detect points in habitat reduction where rates of population decline may accelerate or the likelihood of species occurrence drops rapidly (i.e., thresholds). Here, we use a large avian point-count data set (N = 4375) from southwestern and northwestern Oregon along with segmented logistic regression to test for thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of broadleaf forest and early-seral broadleaf forest at local (150-m radius) and landscape (500–2000-m radius) scales. All 12 bird species examined showed positive responses to either broadleaf forest in general, and/or early-seral broadleaf forest. However, regional variation in species response to these conditions was high. We found considerable evidence for landscape thresholds in bird species occurrence as a function of broadleaf cover; threshold models received substantially greater support than linear models for eight of 12 species. Landscape thresholds in broadleaf forest ranged broadly from 1.35% to 24.55% mean canopy cover. Early-seral broadleaf thresholds tended to be much lower (0.22–1.87%). We found a strong negative relationship between the strength of species association with early-seral broadleaf forest and 42-year bird population trends; species most associated with this forest type have declined at the greatest rates. Taken together, these results provide the first support for the hypothesis that reductions in broadleaf-dominated early-seral forest due to succession and intensive forest management have led to population declines of constituent species in the Pacific northwestern United States. Forest management treatments that maintain or restore even small amounts of broadleaf vegetation could mitigate further declines.

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

PubMed Central

Crow, W. T.; Weingartner, D. P.; McSorley, R.; Dickson, D. W.

2000-01-01

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

Revegetation in China’s Loess Plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiaoming; Fu, Bojie; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Shuai; Ciais, Philippe; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Lü, Yihe; Zeng, Yuan; Li, Yue; Jiang, Xiaohui; Wu, Bingfang

2016-11-01

Revegetation of degraded ecosystems provides opportunities for carbon sequestration and bioenergy production. However, vegetation expansion in water-limited areas creates potentially conflicting demands for water between the ecosystem and humans. Current understanding of these competing demands is still limited. Here, we study the semi-arid Loess Plateau in China, where the `Grain to Green’ large-scale revegetation programme has been in operation since 1999. As expected, we found that the new planting has caused both net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) to increase. Also the increase of ET has induced a significant (p < 0.001) decrease in the ratio of river runoff to annual precipitation across hydrological catchments. From currently revegetated areas and human water demand, we estimate a threshold of NPP of 400 +/- 5 g C m-2 yr-1 above which the population will suffer water shortages. NPP in this region is found to be already close to this limit. The threshold of NPP could change by -36% in the worst case of climate drying and high human withdrawals, to +43% in the best case. Our results develop a new conceptual framework to determine the critical carbon sequestration that is sustainable in terms of both ecological and socio-economic resource demands in a coupled anthropogenic-biological system.

Microsatellite markers associated with resistance to Marek's disease in commercial layer chickens.

PubMed

McElroy, J P; Dekkers, J C M; Fulton, J E; O'Sullivan, N P; Soller, M; Lipkin, E; Zhang, W; Koehler, K J; Lamont, S J; Cheng, H H

2005-11-01

The objective of the current study was to identify QTL conferring resistance to Marek's disease (MD) in commercial layer chickens. To generate the resource population, 2 partially inbred lines that differed in MD-caused mortality were intermated to produce 5 backcross families. Vaccinated chicks were challenged with very virulent plus (vv+) MD virus strain 648A at 6 d and monitored for MD symptoms. A recent field isolate of the MD virus was used because the lines were resistant to commonly used older laboratory strains. Selective genotyping was employed using 81 microsatellites selected based on prior results with selective DNA pooling. Linear regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to detect associations between marker genotypes and survival. Significance thresholds were validated by simulation. Seven and 6 markers were significant based on proportion of false positive and false discovery rate thresholds less than 0.2, respectively. Seventeen markers were associated with MD survival considering a comparison-wise error rate of 0.10, which is about twice the number expected by chance, indicating that at least some of the associations represent true effects. Thus, the present study shows that loci affecting MD resistance can be mapped in commercial layer lines. More comprehensive studies are under way to confirm and extend these results.

A time series analysis of the relationship of ambient temperature and common bacterial enteric infections in two Canadian provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleury, Manon; Charron, Dominique F.; Holt, John D.; Allen, O. Brian; Maarouf, Abdel R.

2006-07-01

The incidence of enteric infections in the Canadian population varies seasonally, and may be expected to be change in response to global climate changes. To better understand any potential impact of warmer temperature on enteric infections in Canada, we investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and weekly reports of confirmed cases of three pathogens in Canada: Salmonella, pathogenic Escherichia coli and Campylobacter, between 1992 and 2000 in two Canadian provinces. We used generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) to estimate the effect of seasonal adjustments on the estimated models. We found a strong non-linear association between ambient temperature and the occurrence of all three enteric pathogens in Alberta, Canada, and of Campylobacter in Newfoundland-Labrador. Threshold models were used to quantify the relationship of disease and temperature with thresholds chosen from 0 to -10°C depending on the pathogen modeled. For Alberta, the log relative risk of Salmonella weekly case counts increased by 1.2%, Campylobacter weekly case counts increased by 2.2%, and E. coli weekly case counts increased by 6.0% for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature. For Newfoundland-Labrador the log relative risk increased by 4.5% for Campylobacter for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature.

Tracking occupational hearing loss across global industries: A comparative analysis of metrics

PubMed Central

Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Galusha, Deron; McTague, Michael F.; Slade, Martin D.; Wesdock, James C.; Dixon-Ernst, Christine

2013-01-01

Occupational hearing loss is one of the most prevalent occupational conditions; yet, there is no acknowledged international metric to allow comparisons of risk between different industries and regions. In order to make recommendations for an international standard of occupational hearing loss, members of an international industry group (the International Aluminium Association) submitted details of different hearing loss metrics currently in use by members. We compared the performance of these metrics using an audiometric data set for over 6000 individuals working in 10 locations of one member company. We calculated rates for each metric at each location from 2002 to 2006. For comparison, we calculated the difference of observed–expected (for age) binaural high frequency hearing loss (in dB/year) for each location over the same time period. We performed linear regression to determine the correlation between each metric and the observed–expected rate of hearing loss. The different metrics produced discrepant results, with annual rates ranging from 0.0% for a less-sensitive metric to more than 10% for a highly sensitive metric. At least two metrics, a 10 dB age-corrected threshold shift from baseline and a 15 dB nonage-corrected shift metric, correlated well with the difference of observed–expected high-frequency hearing loss. This study suggests that it is feasible to develop an international standard for tracking occupational hearing loss in industrial working populations. PMID:22387709

On protection of Freedom's solar dynamic radiator from the orbital debris environment. Part 1: Preliminary analyses and testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.; Christiansen, Eric L.; Fleming, Michael L.

1990-01-01

A great deal of experimentation and analysis was performed to quantify penetration thresholds of components which will experience orbital debris impacts. Penetration was found to depend upon mission specific parameters such as orbital altitude, inclination, and orientation of the component; and upon component specific parameters such as material, density and the geometry particular to its shielding. Experimental results are highly dependent upon shield configuration and cannot be extrapolated with confidence to alternate shield configurations. Also, current experimental capabilities are limited to velocities which only approach the lower limit of predicted orbital debris velocities. Therefore, prediction of the penetrating particle size for a particular component having a complex geometry remains highly uncertain. An approach is described which was developed to assess on-orbit survivability of the solar dynamic radiator due to micrometeoroid and space debris impacts. Preliminary analyses are presented to quantify the solar dynamic radiator survivability, and include the type of particle and particle population expected to defeat the radiator bumpering (i.e., penetrate a fluid flow tube). Results of preliminary hypervelocity impact testing performed on radiator panel samples (in the 6 to 7 km/sec velocity range) are also presented. Plans for further analyses and testing are discussed. These efforts are expected to lead to a radiator design which will perform to requirements over the expected lifetime.

32 CFR 32.44 - Procurement procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... acceptable characteristics or minimum acceptable standards. (iv) The specific features of “brand name or... expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold, specifies a “brand name” product. (4) The proposed...

Entrainment and Control of Bacterial Populations: An in Silico Study over a Spatially Extended Agent Based Model.

PubMed

Mina, Petros; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Bernardo, Mario di

2016-07-15

We extend a spatially explicit agent based model (ABM) developed previously to investigate entrainment and control of the emergent behavior of a population of synchronized oscillating cells in a microfluidic chamber. Unlike most of the work in models of control of cellular systems which focus on temporal changes, we model individual cells with spatial dependencies which may contribute to certain behavioral responses. We use the model to investigate the response of both open loop and closed loop strategies, such as proportional control (P-control), proportional-integral control (PI-control) and proportional-integral-derivative control (PID-control), to heterogeinities and growth in the cell population, variations of the control parameters and spatial effects such as diffusion in the spatially explicit setting of a microfluidic chamber setup. We show that, as expected from the theory of phase locking in dynamical systems, open loop control can only entrain the cell population in a subset of forcing periods, with a wide variety of dynamical behaviors obtained outside these regions of entrainment. Closed-loop control is shown instead to guarantee entrainment in a much wider region of control parameter space although presenting limitations when the population size increases over a certain threshold. In silico tracking experiments are also performed to validate the ability of classical control approaches to achieve other reference behaviors such as a desired constant output or a linearly varying one. All simulations are carried out in BSim, an advanced agent-based simulator of microbial population which is here extended ad hoc to include the effects of control strategies acting onto the population.

Modelling of surface-water temperature for the estimation of the Czech fishery productivity under the climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svobodová, Eva; Trnka, Miroslav; Kopp, Radovan; Mareš, Jan; Dubrovský, Martin; Spurný, Petr; Žalud, Zděněk

2015-04-01

Freshwater fish production is significantly correlated with water temperature which is expected to increase under the climate change. This study is dealing with the estimation of the change of water temperature in productive ponds and its impact on the fishery in the Czech Republic. Calculation of surface-water temperature which was based on three-day mean of the air temperature was developed and tested in several ponds in three main fish production areas. Output of surface-water temperature model was compared with measured data and showed that the lower range of model accuracy is surface-water temperature 3°C, under this temperature threshold the model loses its predictive competence. In the expecting of surface-water temperature above the temperature 3°C the model has proved the well consistence between observed and modelled surface-water temperature (R 0.79 - 0.96). Verified model was applied in the conditions of climate change determined by the pattern scaling method, in which standardised scenarios were derived from five global circulation models MPEH5, CSMK3, IPCM4, GFCM21 and HADGEM. Results were evaluated with regard to thresholds which characterise the fish species requirements on water temperature. Used thresholds involved the upper temperature threshold for fish survival and the tolerable number of days in continual period with mentioned threshold surface-water temperature. Target fish species were Common carp (Cyprinus carpio), Maraene whitefish (Coregonus maraena), Northern whitefish (Coregonus peled) and Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykis). Results indicated the limitation of the Czech fish-farming in terms of i) the increase of the length of continual periods with surface-water temperature above the threshold appropriate to given fish species toleration, ii) the increase of the number of continual periods with surface-water temperature above the threshold, both appropriate to given fish species toleration, and iii) the increase of overall number of days within the continual period with temperature above the threshold tolerated by given fish species. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study was funded by project "Building up a multidisciplinary scientific team focused on drought" No. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248.

How coarse is too coarse for salmon spawning substrates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wooster, J. K.; Riebe, C. S.; Ligon, F. K.; Overstreet, B. T.

2009-12-01

Populations of Pacific salmon species have declined sharply in many rivers of the western US. Reversing these declines is a top priority and expense of many river restoration projects. To help restore salmon populations, managers often inject gravel into rivers, to supplement spawning habitat that has been depleted by gravel mining and the effects of dams—which block sediment and thus impair habitat downstream by coarsening the bed where salmon historically spawned. However, there is little quantitative understanding nor a methodology for determining when a river bed has become too coarse for salmon spawning. Hence there is little scientific basis for selecting sites that would optimize the restoration benefits of gravel injection (e.g., sites where flow velocities are suitable but bed materials are too coarse for spawning). To develop a quantitative understanding of what makes river beds too coarse for salmon spawning, we studied redds and spawning use in a series of California and Washington rivers where salmon spawning ability appears to be affected by coarse bed material. Our working hypothesis is that for a given flow condition, there is a maximum “threshold” particle size that a salmon of a given size is able to excavate and/or move as she builds her redd. A second, related hypothesis is that spawning use should decrease and eventually become impossible with increasing percent coverage by immovable particles. To test these hypotheses, we quantified the sizes and spatial distributions of immovably coarse particles in a series of salmon redds in each river during the peak of spawning. We also quantified spawning use and how it relates to percent coverage by immovable particles. Results from our studies of fall-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha) in the Feather River suggest that immovable particle size varies as a function of flow velocity over the redd, implying that faster water helps fish move bigger particles. Our Feather River study also suggests that the immovable particle size varies as a function of particle shape. Results from our study of fall run chinook salmon in the Sacramento River suggest that spawning is not possible when the bed is more than 40% covered by immovable particles, consistent with our second hypotheses. We will explore these relationships further in fall 2009, when we collect data on threshold particle sizes and spawning use for both pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) in the Puyallup River, and chinook salmon in the Trinity River. Because pink salmon are significantly smaller than chinook salmon, we expect that their redd building success is constrained by a lower average threshold particle size. We expect that there will be a range of threshold sizes for each run, depending on intra-run variability in fish size and variations in flow velocity. Taken together we expect that our results will demonstrate the feasibility of a new methodology for determining when a bed has become too coarse, thus contributing to more effective management of rivers where monitoring of spawning suitability of natural gravels is a priority.

Definition and significance of polycystic ovarian morphology: a task force report from the Androgen Excess and Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Society.

PubMed

Dewailly, Didier; Lujan, Marla E; Carmina, Enrico; Cedars, Marcelle I; Laven, Joop; Norman, Robert J; Escobar-Morreale, Héctor F

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND The diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) relies on clinical, biological and morphological criteria. With the advent of ultrasonography, follicle excess has become the main aspect of polycystic ovarian morphology (PCOM). Since 2003, most investigators have used a threshold of 12 follicles (measuring 2-9 mm in diameter) per whole ovary, but that now seems obsolete. An increase in ovarian volume (OV) and/or area may also be considered accurate markers of PCOM, yet their utility compared with follicle excess remains unclear. METHODS Published peer-reviewed medical literature about PCOM was searched using PubMed.gov online facilities and was submitted to critical assessment by a panel of experts. Studies reporting antral follicle counts (AFC) or follicle number per ovary (FNPO) using transvaginal ultrasonography in healthy women of reproductive age were also included. Only studies that reported the mean or median AFC or FNPO of follicles measuring 2-9 mm, 2-10 mm or <10 mm in diameter, or visualized all follicles, were included. RESULTS Studies addressing women recruited from the general population and studies comparing control and PCOS populations with appropriate statistics were convergent towards setting the threshold for increased FNPO at ≥25 follicles, in women aged 18-35 years. These studies suggested maintaining the threshold for increased OV at ≥10 ml. Critical analysis of the literature showed that OV had less diagnostic potential for PCOM compared with FNPO. The review did not identify any additional diagnostic advantage for other ultrasound metrics such as specific measurements of ovarian stroma or blood flow. Even though serum concentrations of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) showed a diagnostic performance for PCOM that was equal to or better than that of FNPO in some series, the accuracy and reproducibility issues of currently available AMH assays preclude the establishment of a threshold value for its use as a surrogate marker of PCOM. PCOM does not associate with significant consequences for health in the absence of other symptoms of PCOS but, because of the use of inconsistent definitions of PCOM among studies, this question cannot be answered with absolute certainty. CONCLUSIONS The Task Force recommends using FNPO for the definition of PCOM setting the threshold at ≥25, but only when using newer technology that affords maximal resolution of ovarian follicles (i.e. transducer frequency ≥8 MHz). If such technology is not available, we recommend using OV rather than FNPO for the diagnosis of PCOM for routine daily practice but not for research studies that require the precise full characterization of patients. The Task Force recognizes the still unmet need for standardization of the follicle counting technique and the need for regularly updating the thresholds used to define follicle excess, particularly in diverse populations. Serum AMH concentration generated great expectations as a surrogate marker for the follicle excess of PCOM, but full standardization of AMH assays is needed before they can be routinely used for clinical practice and research. Finally, the finding of PCOM in ovulatory women not showing clinical or biochemical androgen excess may be inconsequential, even though some studies suggest that isolated PCOM may represent the milder end of the PCOS spectrum.

Prostate-specific antigen levels in the United States: implications of various definitions for abnormal.

PubMed

Welch, H Gilbert; Schwartz, Lisa M; Woloshin, Steven

2005-08-03

The finding that some men with a normal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (i.e., less than 4 ng/mL) nonetheless have microscopic evidence of prostate cancer has led to some suggestions that the threshold defining abnormal should be lowered to 2.5 ng/mL. We examined the effect of this lower threshold on the number of American men who would be labeled abnormal by a single PSA test. We obtained PSA data on a nationally representative sample of American men 40 years of age and older with no history of prostate cancer and no current inflammation or infection of the prostate gland (n = 1308) from the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We obtained data on the 10-year risk of prostate cancer death in the pre-PSA era from DevCan, the National Cancer Institute's software to calculate the probability of dying of cancer. Based on NHANES data, approximately 1.5 million American men aged 40 to 69 years have a PSA level over 4.0 ng/mL. Lowering the threshold to 2.5 ng/mL would label an additional 1.8 million men as abnormal, if all men were screened. For men aged 70 years or older, the corresponding numbers are 1.5 and 1.2 million. The proportion of the population affected by different thresholds would vary with age. Among men in their 60s, for example, 17% have a PSA level over 2.5 ng/mL, 5.7% have a PSA level over 4.0 ng/mL, and 1.7% have a PSA level over 10.0 ng/mL. For context, only 0.9% of men in their 60s are expected to die from prostate cancer in the next 10 years. Lowering the PSA threshold to 2.5 ng/mL would double the number of men defined as abnormal, to up to 6 million. Until there is evidence that screening is effective, increasing the number of men recommended for prostate biopsy--and the number potentially diagnosed and treated unnecessarily--would be a mistake.

Mathematical analysis of epidemiological models with heterogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ark, J.W.

1992-01-01

For many diseases in human populations the disease shows dissimilar characteristics in separate subgroups of the population; for example, the probability of disease transmission for gonorrhea or AIDS is much higher from male to female than from female to male. There is reason to construct and analyze epidemiological models which allow this heterogeneity of population, and to use these models to run computer simulations of the disease to predict the incidence and prevalence of the disease. In the models considered here the heterogeneous population is separated into subpopulations whose internal and external interactions are homogeneous in the sense that eachmore » person in the population can be assumed to have all average actions for the people of that subpopulation. The first model considered is an SIRS models; i.e., the Susceptible can become Infected, and if so he eventually Recovers with temporary immunity, and after a period of time becomes Susceptible again. Special cases allow for permanent immunity or other variations. This model is analyzed and threshold conditions are given which determine whether the disease dies out or persists. A deterministic model is presented; this model is constructed using difference equations, and it has been used in computer simulations for the AIDS epidemic in the homosexual population in San Francisco. The homogeneous version and the heterogeneous version of the differential-equations and difference-equations versions of the deterministic model are analyzed mathematically. In the analysis, equilibria are identified and threshold conditions are set forth for the disease to die out if the disease is below the threshold so that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Above the threshold the disease persists so that the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and there is a unique endemic equilibrium.« less

DEARS particulate matter relationships for personal, indoor, outdoor, and central site settings for a general population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodes, Charles E.; Lawless, Phil A.; Thornburg, Jonathan W.; Williams, Ronald W.; Croghan, Carry W.

2010-04-01

This analysis provides the initial summary of PM 2.5 mass concentrations relationships for all seasons and participants for a general population in the Detroit Exposure and Aerosol Research Study (DEARS). The summary presented highlights the utility of the new methodologies applied, in addition to summarizing the particulate matter (PM) data. Results include the requirement to adjust the exposure data for monitor wearing compliance and measured environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) levels, even though the study design specified a non-smoking household. A 40% wearing compliance acceptance level was suggested as necessary to balance minimizing exposure misclassification (from poor compliance) and having sufficient data to conduct robust statistical analyses. An ETS threshold level equivalent to adding more than 1.5 μg m -3 to the collected sample was found to be necessary to detect changes in the personal exposure factor ( Fpex). It is not completely clear why such a large threshold level was necessary. Statistically significant spatial PM 2.5 gradients were identified in three of the six DEARS neighborhoods in Wayne County. These were expected, given the number of strong, localized PM sources in the Detroit (Michigan) metro area. Some residential outdoor bias levels compared with the central site at Allen Park exceeded 15%. After adjusting for ETS biases, the outdoor contributions to the personal exposure were typically larger by factors from 1.75 to 2.2 compared with those of the non-outdoor sources. The outdoor contribution was larger in the summer than in the winter, which is consistent with the fractions of time spent outdoors in the summer vs. the winter (6.7% vs. 1.1% of the time). Mean personal PM 2.5 cloud levels for the general population DEARS cohort ranged from 1.5 to 3.8 (after ETS adjustment) and were comparable to those reported previously. The personal exposure collections indoors were typically at least 13 times greater than those contributed outdoors.

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Tom H.; Marshall, Harry H.; Morecroft, Mike D.; Brereton, Tom; Prudhomme, Christel; Huntingford, Chris

2015-10-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with `business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

Second Opinions Improve ADHD Prescribing in a Medicaid-Insured Community Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Jeffrey N.; Varley, Christopher K.; McClellan, Jon; Hilt, Robert; Lee, Terry; Kwan, Alan C.; Lee, Taik; Trupin, Eric

2009-01-01

Washington State Medicaid mandates a second opinion when threshold safety parameters for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medications are exceeded. This is found to save $1.2 million and saves 538 fewer patients from exceeding safety thresholds.

Linear-No-Threshold Default Assumptions for Noncancer and Nongenotoxic Cancer Risks: A Mathematical and Biological Critique.

PubMed

Bogen, Kenneth T

2016-03-01

To improve U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dose-response (DR) assessments for noncarcinogens and for nonlinear mode of action (MOA) carcinogens, the 2009 NRC Science and Decisions Panel recommended that the adjustment-factor approach traditionally applied to these endpoints should be replaced by a new default assumption that both endpoints have linear-no-threshold (LNT) population-wide DR relationships. The panel claimed this new approach is warranted because population DR is LNT when any new dose adds to a background dose that explains background levels of risk, and/or when there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in susceptibility in the exposed human population. Mathematically, however, the first claim is either false or effectively meaningless and the second claim is false. Any dose-and population-response relationship that is statistically consistent with an LNT relationship may instead be an additive mixture of just two quasi-threshold DR relationships, which jointly exhibit low-dose S-shaped, quasi-threshold nonlinearity just below the lower end of the observed "linear" dose range. In this case, LNT extrapolation would necessarily overestimate increased risk by increasingly large relative magnitudes at diminishing values of above-background dose. The fact that chemically-induced apoptotic cell death occurs by unambiguously nonlinear, quasi-threshold DR mechanisms is apparent from recent data concerning this quintessential toxicity endpoint. The 2009 NRC Science and Decisions Panel claims and recommendations that default LNT assumptions be applied to DR assessment for noncarcinogens and nonlinear MOA carcinogens are therefore not justified either mathematically or biologically. © 2015 The Author. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Acoustic cavitation studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crum, L. A.

1981-09-01

The primary thrust of this study was toward a more complete understanding of general aspects of acoustic cavitation. The effect of long-chain polymer additives on the cavitation threshold was investigated to determine if they reduced the acoustic cavitation threshold in a similar manner to the observed reduction in the cavitation index in hydrodynamic cavitation. Measurements were made of the acoustic cavitation threshold as a function of polymer concentration for additives such as guar gum and polyethelene oxide. The measurements were also made as a function of dissolved gas concentration, surface tension and viscosity. It was determined that there was a significant increase in the acoustic cavitation threshold for increased concentrations of the polymer additives (measurable effects could be obtained for concentrations as low as a few parts per million). One would normally expect that an additive that reduces surface tension to decrease the pressure required to cause a cavity to grow and thus these additives, at first thought, should reduce the threshold. However, even in the hydrodynamic case, the threshold was increased. In both of the hydrodynamic cases considered, the explanation for the increased threshold was given in terms of changed fluid dynamics rather than changed physical properties of the fluid.

Projections for Achieving the Lancet Commission Recommended Surgical Rate of 5000 Operations per 100,000 Population by Region-Specific Surgical Rate Estimates.

PubMed

Uribe-Leitz, Tarsicio; Esquivel, Micaela M; Molina, George; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Verguet, Stéphane; Rose, John; Bickler, Stephen W; Gawande, Atul A; Haynes, Alex B; Weiser, Thomas G

2015-09-01

We previously identified a range of 4344-5028 annual operations per 100,000 people to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 people. We evaluate rates of growth and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. We aggregated country-level surgical rate estimates from 2004 to 2012 into the twenty-one Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size for each year and assessed the rate of growth over time. We then extrapolated the time it will take each region to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 population based on linear rates of change. All but two regions experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years. Fourteen regions did not meet the recommended threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity continues to grow at current rates, seven regions will not meet the threshold by 2035. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the recommended threshold until 2124. The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable. At current rates of surgical and population growth, 6.2 billion people (73% of the world's population) will be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgical care in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met in a timely fashion as part of the integrated health system development.

Density-dependent selection on mate search and evolution of Allee effects.

PubMed

Berec, Luděk; Kramer, Andrew M; Bernhauerová, Veronika; Drake, John M

2018-01-01

Sexually reproducing organisms require males and females to find each other. Increased difficulty of females finding mates as male density declines is the most frequently reported mechanism of Allee effects in animals. Evolving more effective mate search may alleviate Allee effects, but may depend on density regimes a population experiences. In particular, high-density populations may evolve mechanisms that induce Allee effects which become detrimental when populations are reduced and maintained at a low density. We develop an individual-based, eco-genetic model to study how mating systems and fitness trade-offs interact with changes in population density to drive evolution of the rate at which males or females search for mates. Finite mate search rate triggers Allee effects in our model and we explore how these Allee effects respond to such evolution. We allow a population to adapt to several population density regimes and examine whether high-density populations are likely to reverse adaptations attained at low densities. We find density-dependent selection in most of scenarios, leading to search rates that result in lower Allee thresholds in populations kept at lower densities. This mainly occurs when fecundity costs are imposed on mate search, and provides an explanation for why Allee effects are often observed in anthropogenically rare species. Optimizing selection, where the attained trait value minimizes the Allee threshold independent of population density, depended on the trade-off between search and survival, combined with monogamy when females were searching. Other scenarios led to runaway selection on the mate search rate, including evolutionary suicide. Trade-offs involved in mate search may thus be crucial to determining how density influences the evolution of Allee effects. Previous studies did not examine evolution of a trait related to the strength of Allee effects under density variation. We emphasize the crucial role that mating systems, fitness trade-offs and the evolving sex have in determining the density threshold for population persistence, in particular since evolution need not always take the Allee threshold to its minimum value. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

The Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the mini-mental state examination as screening instruments for cognitive impairment: item analyses and threshold scores.

PubMed

Damian, Anne M; Jacobson, Sandra A; Hentz, Joseph G; Belden, Christine M; Shill, Holly A; Sabbagh, Marwan N; Caviness, John N; Adler, Charles H

2011-01-01

To perform an item analysis of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) versus the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in the prediction of cognitive impairment, and to examine the characteristics of different MoCA threshold scores. 135 subjects enrolled in a longitudinal clinicopathologic study were administered the MoCA by a single physician and the MMSE by a trained research assistant. Subjects were classified as cognitively impaired or cognitively normal based on independent neuropsychological testing. 89 subjects were found to be cognitively normal, and 46 cognitively impaired (20 with dementia, 26 with mild cognitive impairment). The MoCA was superior in both sensitivity and specificity to the MMSE, although not all MoCA tasks were of equal predictive value. A MoCA threshold score of 26 had a sensitivity of 98% and a specificity of 52% in this population. In a population with a 20% prevalence of cognitive impairment, a threshold of 24 was optimal (negative predictive value 96%, positive predictive value 47%). This analysis suggests the potential for creating an abbreviated MoCA. For screening in primary care, the MoCA threshold of 26 appears optimal. For testing in a memory disorders clinic, a lower threshold has better predictive value. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, Kenneth B.; Holland, Christy K.

2013-01-01

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form ICAV = Pr/f (where Pr is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents.

PubMed

Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

2013-01-07

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form I(CAV) = P(r)/f (where P(r) is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents

PubMed Central

Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

2015-01-01

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form ICAV = Pr/f (where Pr is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs. PMID:23221109

A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2011-04-18

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

Impact of particulate air pollution on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Canada.

PubMed

Coyle, Douglas; Stieb, Dave; Burnett, Richard T; DeCivita, Paul; Krewski, Daniel; Chen, Yue; Thun, Michael J

Air pollution and premature death are important public health concerns. Analyses have repeatedly demonstrated that airborne particles are associated with increased mortality and estimates have been used to forecast the impact on life expectancy. In this analysis, we draw upon data from the American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort and literature on utility-based measures of quality of life in relation to health status to more fully quantify the effects of air pollution on mortality in terms of quality-adjusted life expectancy. The analysis was conducted within a decision analytic model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Outcomes were estimated based on projections of the Canadian population. A one-unit reduction in sulfate air pollution would yield a mean annual increase in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) of 20,960, with gains being greater for individuals with lower educational status and for males compared to females. This suggests that the impact of reductions in sulfate air pollution on quality-adjusted life expectancy is substantial. Interpretation of the results is unclear. However, the potential gains in QALYs from reduced air pollutants can be contrasted to the costs of policies to bring about such reductions. Based on a tentative threshold for the value of health benefits, analysis suggests that an investment in Canada of over 1 billion dollars per annum would be an efficient use of resources if it could be demonstrated that this would reduce sulfate concentrations in ambient air by 1 microg/m(3). Further analysis can assess the efficiency of targeting such initiatives to communities that are most likely to benefit.

Price of anarchy is maximized at the percolation threshold.

PubMed

Skinner, Brian

2015-05-01

When many independent users try to route traffic through a network, the flow can easily become suboptimal as a consequence of congestion of the most efficient paths. The degree of this suboptimality is quantified by the so-called price of anarchy (POA), but so far there are no general rules for when to expect a large POA in a random network. Here I address this question by introducing a simple model of flow through a network with randomly placed congestible and incongestible links. I show that the POA is maximized precisely when the fraction of congestible links matches the percolation threshold of the lattice. Both the POA and the total cost demonstrate critical scaling near the percolation threshold.

Non-Linear Concentration-Response Relationships between Ambient Ozone and Daily Mortality.

PubMed

Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kashima, Saori; Yorifuji, Takashi; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

2015-01-01

Ambient ozone (O3) concentration has been reported to be significantly associated with mortality. However, linearity of the relationships and the presence of a threshold has been controversial. The aim of the present study was to examine the concentration-response relationship and threshold of the association between ambient O3 concentration and non-accidental mortality in 13 Japanese and Korean cities from 2000 to 2009. We selected Japanese and Korean cities which have population of over 1 million. We constructed Poisson regression models adjusting daily mean temperature, daily mean PM10, humidity, time trend, season, year, day of the week, holidays and yearly population. The association between O3 concentration and mortality was examined using linear, spline and linear-threshold models. The thresholds were estimated for each city, by constructing linear-threshold models. We also examined the city-combined association using a generalized additive mixed model. The mean O3 concentration did not differ greatly between Korea and Japan, which were 26.2 ppb and 24.2 ppb, respectively. Seven out of 13 cities showed better fits for the spline model compared with the linear model, supporting a non-linear relationships between O3 concentration and mortality. All of the 7 cities showed J or U shaped associations suggesting the existence of thresholds. The range of city-specific thresholds was from 11 to 34 ppb. The city-combined analysis also showed a non-linear association with a threshold around 30-40 ppb. We have observed non-linear concentration-response relationship with thresholds between daily mean ambient O3 concentration and daily number of non-accidental death in Japanese and Korean cities.

Neural Correlates and Mechanisms of Spatial Release From Masking: Single-Unit and Population Responses in the Inferior Colliculus

PubMed Central

Lane, Courtney C.; Delgutte, Bertrand

2007-01-01

Spatial release from masking (SRM), a factor in listening in noisy environments, is the improvement in auditory signal detection obtained when a signal is separated in space from a masker. To study the neural mechanisms of SRM, we recorded from single units in the inferior colliculus (IC) of barbiturate-anesthetized cats, focusing on low-frequency neurons sensitive to interaural time differences. The stimulus was a broadband chirp train with a 40-Hz repetition rate in continuous broadband noise, and the unit responses were measured for several signal and masker (virtual) locations. Masked thresholds (the lowest signal-to-noise ratio, SNR, for which the signal could be detected for 75% of the stimulus presentations) changed systematically with signal and masker location. Single-unit thresholds did not necessarily improve with signal and masker separation; instead, they tended to reflect the units’ azimuth preference. Both how the signal was detected (through a rate increase or decrease) and how the noise masked the signal response (suppressive or excitatory masking) changed with signal and masker azimuth, consistent with a cross-correlator model of binaural processing. However, additional processing, perhaps related to the signal’s amplitude modulation rate, appeared to influence the units’ responses. The population masked thresholds (the most sensitive unit’s threshold at each signal and masker location) did improve with signal and masker separation as a result of the variety of azimuth preferences in our unit sample. The population thresholds were similar to human behavioral thresholds in both SNR value and shape, indicating that these units may provide a neural substrate for low-frequency SRM. PMID:15857966

Beneficial laggards: multilevel selection, cooperative polymorphism and division of labour in threshold public good games

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The origin and stability of cooperation is a hot topic in social and behavioural sciences. A complicated conundrum exists as defectors have an advantage over cooperators, whenever cooperation is costly so consequently, not cooperating pays off. In addition, the discovery that humans and some animal populations, such as lions, are polymorphic, where cooperators and defectors stably live together -- while defectors are not being punished--, is even more puzzling. Here we offer a novel explanation based on a Threshold Public Good Game (PGG) that includes the interaction of individual and group level selection, where individuals can contribute to multiple collective actions, in our model group hunting and group defense. Results Our results show that there are polymorphic equilibria in Threshold PGGs; that multi-level selection does not select for the most cooperators per group but selects those close to the optimum number of cooperators (in terms of the Threshold PGG). In particular for medium cost values division of labour evolves within the group with regard to the two types of cooperative actions (hunting vs. defense). Moreover we show evidence that spatial population structure promotes cooperation in multiple PGGs. We also demonstrate that these results apply for a wide range of non-linear benefit function types. Conclusions We demonstrate that cooperation can be stable in Threshold PGG, even when the proportion of so called free riders is high in the population. A fundamentally new mechanism is proposed how laggards, individuals that have a high tendency to defect during one specific group action can actually contribute to the fitness of the group, by playing part in an optimal resource allocation in Threshold Public Good Games. In general, our results show that acknowledging a multilevel selection process will open up novel explanations for collective actions. PMID:21044340

Differences in Taste Perception and Spicy Preference: A Thai-Japanese Cross-cultural Study.

PubMed

Trachootham, Dunyaporn; Satoh-Kuriwada, Shizuko; Lam-Ubol, Aroonwan; Promkam, Chadamas; Chotechuang, Nattida; Sasano, Takashi; Shoji, Noriaki

2017-12-25

Taste perception is influenced by several factors. However, the relation between taste perception and food culture is unclear. This study compared taste thresholds between populations with different food culture, i.e. Thai and Japanese. A matched case-control study was conducted in 168 adults (84 for each; aged between 50 and 90 years). The age, sex, systemic disease, medication, smoking, xerostomia, and oral hygiene of both groups were not different. Recognition thresholds (RTs) of sweet, salty, sour, bitter, and umami were measured using filter paper disc (FPD). Detection taste thresholds were measured using electrogustometry. Spicy preference was measured by calibrated questionnaires. Higher RTs of all tastes and higher detection taste thresholds were found in Thai as compared to those of Japanese (P < 0.0001). Separate analyses of healthy and unhealthy persons confirmed the significant differences between 2 countries. The average thresholds for sweet, salty, sour, and bitter in Thai and Japanese were 4 and 2, respectively. The average threshold for umami in Thai and Japanese was 5 and 3, respectively. Moreover, Thai population had stronger preference for spicy food (P < 0.0001) with 70% mild- or moderate and 10% strong lovers, compared to over 90% non- or mild-spicy lovers in Japanese. In addition, 70% of Thai consumed spicy food weekly, whilst 80% of Japanese consumed it monthly. Our findings suggested that population with stronger spicy preference such as Thai had much poorer taste sensitivity and perception than that with milder preference like Japanese. Extensive international survey is needed to conclude the influence of food culture on taste perception. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

a Threshold-Free Filtering Algorithm for Airborne LIDAR Point Clouds Based on Expectation-Maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Z.; Cheng, P.; Ziggah, Y. Y.; Nie, Y.

2018-04-01

Filtering is a key step for most applications of airborne LiDAR point clouds. Although lots of filtering algorithms have been put forward in recent years, most of them suffer from parameters setting or thresholds adjusting, which will be time-consuming and reduce the degree of automation of the algorithm. To overcome this problem, this paper proposed a threshold-free filtering algorithm based on expectation-maximization. The proposed algorithm is developed based on an assumption that point clouds are seen as a mixture of Gaussian models. The separation of ground points and non-ground points from point clouds can be replaced as a separation of a mixed Gaussian model. Expectation-maximization (EM) is applied for realizing the separation. EM is used to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of the mixture parameters. Using the estimated parameters, the likelihoods of each point belonging to ground or object can be computed. After several iterations, point clouds can be labelled as the component with a larger likelihood. Furthermore, intensity information was also utilized to optimize the filtering results acquired using the EM method. The proposed algorithm was tested using two different datasets used in practice. Experimental results showed that the proposed method can filter non-ground points effectively. To quantitatively evaluate the proposed method, this paper adopted the dataset provided by the ISPRS for the test. The proposed algorithm can obtain a 4.48 % total error which is much lower than most of the eight classical filtering algorithms reported by the ISPRS.

Cost-effectiveness of indacaterol/glycopyrronium in comparison with salmeterol/fluticasone combination for patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a LANTERN population analysis from Singapore.

PubMed

Tee, Augustine; Chow, Wai Leng; Burke, Colin; Basavarajaiah, Guruprasad

2018-03-16

In light of the growing evidence base for better clinical results with the use of the dual bronchodilator indacaterol/glycopyrronium (IND/GLY) over inhaled corticosteroid-containing salmeterol/fluticasone combination (SFC), this study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of IND/GLY over SFC in patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are at low risk of exacerbations in the Singapore healthcare setting. A previously published patient-level simulation model was adapted for use in Singapore by applying local unit costs. The model was populated with clinical data from the LANTERN and ECLIPSE studies. Both costs and health outcomes were predicted for the lifetime horizon from a payer's perspective and were discounted at 3% per annum. Costs were expressed in 2015 USD. Uncertainty was assessed through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Compared to SFC, use of IND/GLY increased mean life expectancy by 0.316 years and mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) by 0.246 years, and decreased mean total treatment costs (drug costs and management of associated events) by USD 1,474 over the entire lifetime horizon. IND/GLY was considered to be 100% cost-effective at a threshold of 1 × gross domestic product per capita. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis results showed that IND/GLY was 100% cost-effective at a threshold of USD 2,000 when compared to SFC. IND/GLY was estimated to be highly cost-effective compared to SFC in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD who are not at high risk of exacerbations in the Singapore healthcare setting.

Cost effectiveness of mammography screening for Chinese women.

PubMed

Wong, Irene O L; Kuntz, Karen M; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lam, Cindy L K; Leung, Gabriel M

2007-08-15

Although the cost effectiveness of screening mammography in most western developed populations has been accepted, it may not apply to Chinese women, who have a much lower breast cancer incidence. The authors estimated the cost effectiveness of biennial mammography in Hong Kong Chinese women to inform evidence-based screening policies. For the current study, a state-transition Markov model was developed to simulate mammography screening, breast cancer diagnosis, and treatment in a hypothetical cohort of Chinese women. The benefit of mammography was modeled by assuming a stage shift, in which cancers in screened women were more likely to be diagnosed at an earlier disease stage. The authors compared costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved, and life years saved (LYS) for 5 screening strategies. Biennial screening resulted in a gain in life expectancy ranging from 4.3 days to 9.4 days compared with no screening at an incremental cost of from US $1,166 to US $2,425 per woman. The least costly, nondominated screening option was screening from ages 40 years to 69 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US $61,600 per QALY saved or US $64,400 per LYS compared with no screening. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the probability of the ICER being below a threshold of US $50,000 per QALY (LYS) was 15.3% (14.6%). The current results suggested that mammography for Hong Kong Chinese women currently may not be cost effective based on the arbitrary threshold of US $50,000 per QALY. However, clinicians must remain vigilant and periodically should revisit the question of population screening: Disease rates in China have been increasing because of westernization and socioeconomic development.

Identifying the most appropriate age threshold for TNM stage grouping of well-differentiated thyroid cancer.

PubMed

Hendrickson-Rebizant, J; Sigvaldason, H; Nason, R W; Pathak, K A

2015-08-01

Age is integrated in most risk stratification systems for well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC). The most appropriate age threshold for stage grouping of WDTC is debatable. The objective of this study was to evaluate the best age threshold for stage grouping by comparing multivariable models designed to evaluate the independent impact of various prognostic factors, including age based stage grouping, on the disease specific survival (DSS) of our population-based cohort. Data from population-based thyroid cancer cohort of 2125 consecutive WDTC, diagnosed during 1970-2010, with a median follow-up of 11.5 years, was used to calculate DSS using the Kaplan Meier method. Multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess independent impact of different prognostic factors on DSS. The Akaike information criterion (AIC), a measure of statistical model fit, was used to identify the most appropriate age threshold model. Delta AIC, Akaike weight, and evidence ratios were calculated to compare the relative strength of different models. The mean age of the patients was 47.3 years. DSS of the cohort was 95.6% and 92.8% at 10 and 20 years respectively. A threshold of 55 years, with the lowest AIC, was identified as the best model. Akaike weight indicated an 85% chance that this age threshold is the best among the compared models, and is 16.8 times more likely to be the best model as compared to a threshold of 45 years. The age threshold of 55 years was found to be the best for TNM stage grouping. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Photodetachment cross sections of negative ions - The range of validity of the Wigner threshold law

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farley, John W.

1989-01-01

The threshold behavior of the photodetachment cross section of negative ions as a function of photon frequency is usually described by the Wigner law. This paper reports the results of a model calculation using the zero-core-contribution (ZCC) approximation. Theoretical expressions for the leading correction to the Wigner law are developed, giving the range of validity of the Wigner law and the expected accuracy. The results are relevant to extraction of electron affinities from experimental photodetachment data.

Psychophysics with children: Investigating the effects of attentional lapses on threshold estimates.

PubMed

Manning, Catherine; Jones, Pete R; Dekker, Tessa M; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2018-03-26

When assessing the perceptual abilities of children, researchers tend to use psychophysical techniques designed for use with adults. However, children's poorer attentiveness might bias the threshold estimates obtained by these methods. Here, we obtained speed discrimination threshold estimates in 6- to 7-year-old children in UK Key Stage 1 (KS1), 7- to 9-year-old children in Key Stage 2 (KS2), and adults using three psychophysical procedures: QUEST, a 1-up 2-down Levitt staircase, and Method of Constant Stimuli (MCS). We estimated inattentiveness using responses to "easy" catch trials. As expected, children had higher threshold estimates and made more errors on catch trials than adults. Lower threshold estimates were obtained from psychometric functions fit to the data in the QUEST condition than the MCS and Levitt staircases, and the threshold estimates obtained when fitting a psychometric function to the QUEST data were also lower than when using the QUEST mode. This suggests that threshold estimates cannot be compared directly across methods. Differences between the procedures did not vary significantly with age group. Simulations indicated that inattentiveness biased threshold estimates particularly when threshold estimates were computed as the QUEST mode or the average of staircase reversals. In contrast, thresholds estimated by post-hoc psychometric function fitting were less biased by attentional lapses. Our results suggest that some psychophysical methods are more robust to attentiveness, which has important implications for assessing the perception of children and clinical groups.

Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariano, S. L.; Brunetti, M. T.; Iovine, G.; Melillo, M.; Peruccacci, S.; Terranova, O.; Vennari, C.; Guzzetti, F.

2015-01-01

Empirical rainfall thresholds are tools to forecast the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Accurate prediction of landslide occurrence requires reliable thresholds, which need to be properly validated before their use in operational warning systems. We exploited a catalogue of 200 rainfall conditions that have resulted in at least 223 shallow landslides in Sicily, southern Italy, in the 11-year period 2002-2011, to determine regional event duration-cumulated event rainfall (ED) thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence. We computed ED thresholds for different exceedance probability levels and determined the uncertainty associated to the thresholds using a consolidated bootstrap nonparametric technique. We further determined subregional thresholds, and we studied the role of lithology and seasonal periods in the initiation of shallow landslides in Sicily. Next, we validated the regional rainfall thresholds using 29 rainfall conditions that have resulted in 42 shallow landslides in Sicily in 2012. We based the validation on contingency tables, skill scores, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 50%. Validation of rainfall thresholds is hampered by lack of information on landslide occurrence. Therefore, we considered the effects of variations in the contingencies and the skill scores caused by lack of information. Based on the results obtained, we propose a general methodology for the objective identification of a threshold that provides an optimal balance between maximization of correct predictions and minimization of incorrect predictions, including missed and false alarms. We expect that the methodology will increase the reliability of rainfall thresholds, fostering the operational use of validated rainfall thresholds in operational early warning system for regional shallow landslide forecasting.

Thresholds, injury, and loss relationships for thrips in Phleum pratense (Poales: Poaceae).

PubMed

Reisig, Dominic D; Godfrey, Larry D; Marcum, Daniel B

2009-12-01

Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is an important forage crop in many Western U.S. states. Marketing of timothy hay is primarily based on esthetics, and green color is an important attribute. The objective of these studies was to determine a relationship between arthropod populations, yield, and esthetic injury in timothy. Economic injury levels (EILs) and economic thresholds were calculated based on these relationships. Thrips (Thripidae) numbers were manipulated with insecticides in small plot studies in 2006, 2007, and 2008, although tetranychid mite levels were incidentally flared by cyfluthrin in some experiments. Arthropod population densities were determined weekly, and yield and esthetic injury were measured at each harvest. Effects of arthropods on timothy were assessed using multilinear regression. Producers were also surveyed to relate economic loss from leaf color to the injury ratings for use in establishing EILs. Thrips population levels were significantly related to yield loss in only one of nine experiments. Thrips population levels were significantly related to injury once before the first annual harvest and twice before the second. Thrips were the most important pest in these experiments, and they were more often related to esthetic injury rather than yield loss. EILs and economic thresholds for thrips population levels were established using esthetic injury data. These results document the first example of a significant relationship between arthropod pest population levels and economic yield and quality losses in timothy.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Blazars in the Swift-BAT hard X-ray sky (Maselli+, 2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maselli, A.; Cusumano, G.; Massaro, E.; La Parola, V.; Segreto, A.; Sbarufatti, B.

2010-06-01

We reported the list of hard X-ray blazars obtained adopting sigma=3 as detection threshold: with this choice a number of three spurious sources over a total of 121 blazars is expected. Each blazar is identified by a three-letter code, where the first two are BZ for blazar and the third one specifies the type, followed by the truncated equatorial coordinates (J2000). The codes are defined in the "Note (1)" below. We obtained 69 FSRQs, 24 BL Lac objects and 28 blazars of uncertain classification, representing 4.4%, 2.4% and 11.0% of the corresponding populations classified in the BZCAT, respectively. This sample has been compared with other lists and catalogues found in literature (Tueller et al., 2010, Cat. J/ApJS/186/378, Ajello et al. 2009ApJ...699..603A, Cusumano et al., 2010, Cat. J/A+A/510/A48). (1 data file).

The transition from quantity to quality: A neglected causal mechanism in accounting for social evolution

PubMed Central

Carneiro, Robert L.

2000-01-01

Students of social evolution are concerned not only with the general course it has followed, but also with the mechanisms that have brought it about. One such mechanism comes into play when the quantitative increase in some entity, usually population, reaching a certain threshold, gives rise to a qualitative change in the structure of a society. This mechanism, first recognized by Hegel, was seized on by Marx and Engels. However, neither they nor their current followers among anthropologists have made much use of it in attempting to explain social evolution. But as this paper attempts to show, in those few instances when the mechanism has been invoked, it has heightened our understanding of the process of social evolution. And, it is argued, if the mechanism were more widely applied, further understanding of the course of evolution could be expected to result. PMID:11050189

Pre-operative Thresholds for Achieving Meaningful Clinical Improvement after Arthroscopic Treatment of Femoroacetabular Impingement

PubMed Central

Nwachukwu, Benedict U.; Fields, Kara G.; Nawabi, Danyal H.; Kelly, Bryan T.; Ranawat, Anil S.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Knowledge of the thresholds and determinants for successful femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) treatment is evolving. The primary purpose of this study was to define pre-operative outcome score thresholds that can be used to predict patients most likely to achieve meaningful clinically important difference (MCID) after arthroscopic FAI treatment. Secondarily determinants of achieving MCID were evaluated. Methods: A prospective institutional hip arthroscopy registry was reviewed to identify patients with FAI treated with arthroscopic labral surgery, acetabular rim trimming, and femoral osteochondroplasty. The modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS), the Hip Outcome Score (HOS) and the international Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT-33) tools were administered at baseline and at one year post-operatively. MCID was calculated using a distribution-based method. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate cohort-based threshold values predictive of achieving MCID. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to define predictive ability (strength of association) with AUC >0.7 considered acceptably predictive. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to analyze demographic, radiographic and intra-operative factors associated with achieving MCID. Results: There were 374 patients (mean + SD age, 32.9 + 10.5) and 56.4% were female. The MCID for mHHS, HOS activities of daily living (HOS-ADL), HOS Sports, and iHOT-33 was 8.2, 8.4,14.5, and 12.0 respectively. ROC analysis (threshold, % achieving MCID, strength of association) for these tools in our population was: mHHS (61.6, 78%, 0.68), HOS-ADL (83.8, 68%, 0.84), HOS-Sports (63.9, 64%, 0.74), and iHOT-33 (54.3, 82%, 0.65). Likelihood for achieving MCID declined above and increased below these thresholds. In univariate analysis female sex, femoral version, lower acetabular outerbridge score and increasing CT sagittal center edge angle (CEA) were predictive of achieving MCID. In multivariable analysis sagittal CEA was the only variable maintaining significance (p = 0.032). Conclusion: We used a large prospective hip arthroscopy database to identify pre-operative patient outcome score thresholds predictive of meaningful post-operative outcome improvement after arthroscopic FAI treatment. This is the largest reported hip arthroscopy cohort to define MCID and the first to do so for iHOT-33. The HOS-ADL may have the best predictive ability for achieving MCID after hip arthroscopy. Patients with relatively high pre-operative ADL, quality of life and functional status appear to have a high chance for achieveing MCID up to our defined thresholds. Hip dysplasia is an important outcome modifier. The findings of this study may be useful for managing preoperative expectation for patients undergoing arthroscopic FAI surgery.

Evaluation of Mandarin Chinese Speech Recognition in Adults with Cochlear Implants Using the Spectral Ripple Discrimination Test

PubMed Central

Dai, Chuanfu; Zhao, Zeqi; Zhang, Duo; Lei, Guanxiong

2018-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to explore the value of the spectral ripple discrimination test in speech recognition evaluation among a deaf (post-lingual) Mandarin-speaking population in China following cochlear implantation. Material/Methods The study included 23 Mandarin-speaking adult subjects with normal hearing (normal-hearing group) and 17 deaf adults who were former Mandarin-speakers, with cochlear implants (cochlear implantation group). The normal-hearing subjects were divided into men (n=10) and women (n=13). The spectral ripple discrimination thresholds between the groups were compared. The correlation between spectral ripple discrimination thresholds and Mandarin speech recognition rates in the cochlear implantation group were studied. Results Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds did not correlate with age (r=−0.19; p=0.22), and there was no significant difference in spectral ripple discrimination thresholds between the male and female groups (p=0.654). Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds of deaf adults with cochlear implants were significantly correlated with monosyllabic recognition rates (r=0.84; p=0.000). Conclusions In a Mandarin Chinese speaking population, spectral ripple discrimination thresholds of normal-hearing individuals were unaffected by both gender and age. Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds were correlated with Mandarin monosyllabic recognition rates of Mandarin-speaking in post-lingual deaf adults with cochlear implants. The spectral ripple discrimination test is a promising method for speech recognition evaluation in adults following cochlear implantation in China. PMID:29806954

Evaluation of Mandarin Chinese Speech Recognition in Adults with Cochlear Implants Using the Spectral Ripple Discrimination Test.

PubMed

Dai, Chuanfu; Zhao, Zeqi; Shen, Weidong; Zhang, Duo; Lei, Guanxiong; Qiao, Yuehua; Yang, Shiming

2018-05-28

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to explore the value of the spectral ripple discrimination test in speech recognition evaluation among a deaf (post-lingual) Mandarin-speaking population in China following cochlear implantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS The study included 23 Mandarin-speaking adult subjects with normal hearing (normal-hearing group) and 17 deaf adults who were former Mandarin-speakers, with cochlear implants (cochlear implantation group). The normal-hearing subjects were divided into men (n=10) and women (n=13). The spectral ripple discrimination thresholds between the groups were compared. The correlation between spectral ripple discrimination thresholds and Mandarin speech recognition rates in the cochlear implantation group were studied. RESULTS Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds did not correlate with age (r=-0.19; p=0.22), and there was no significant difference in spectral ripple discrimination thresholds between the male and female groups (p=0.654). Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds of deaf adults with cochlear implants were significantly correlated with monosyllabic recognition rates (r=0.84; p=0.000). CONCLUSIONS In a Mandarin Chinese speaking population, spectral ripple discrimination thresholds of normal-hearing individuals were unaffected by both gender and age. Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds were correlated with Mandarin monosyllabic recognition rates of Mandarin-speaking in post-lingual deaf adults with cochlear implants. The spectral ripple discrimination test is a promising method for speech recognition evaluation in adults following cochlear implantation in China.

Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

2013-04-01

Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

Multivariate Analyses of Balance Test Performance, Vestibular Thresholds, and Age

PubMed Central

Karmali, Faisal; Bermúdez Rey, María Carolina; Clark, Torin K.; Wang, Wei; Merfeld, Daniel M.

2017-01-01

We previously published vestibular perceptual thresholds and performance in the Modified Romberg Test of Standing Balance in 105 healthy humans ranging from ages 18 to 80 (1). Self-motion thresholds in the dark included roll tilt about an earth-horizontal axis at 0.2 and 1 Hz, yaw rotation about an earth-vertical axis at 1 Hz, y-translation (interaural/lateral) at 1 Hz, and z-translation (vertical) at 1 Hz. In this study, we focus on multiple variable analyses not reported in the earlier study. Specifically, we investigate correlations (1) among the five thresholds measured and (2) between thresholds, age, and the chance of failing condition 4 of the balance test, which increases vestibular reliance by having subjects stand on foam with eyes closed. We found moderate correlations (0.30–0.51) between vestibular thresholds for different motions, both before and after using our published aging regression to remove age effects. We found that lower or higher thresholds across all threshold measures are an individual trait that account for about 60% of the variation in the population. This can be further distributed into two components with about 20% of the variation explained by aging and 40% of variation explained by a single principal component that includes similar contributions from all threshold measures. When only roll tilt 0.2 Hz thresholds and age were analyzed together, we found that the chance of failing condition 4 depends significantly on both (p = 0.006 and p = 0.013, respectively). An analysis incorporating more variables found that the chance of failing condition 4 depended significantly only on roll tilt 0.2 Hz thresholds (p = 0.046) and not age (p = 0.10), sex nor any of the other four threshold measures, suggesting that some of the age effect might be captured by the fact that vestibular thresholds increase with age. For example, at 60 years of age, the chance of failing is roughly 5% for the lowest roll tilt thresholds in our population, but this increases to 80% for the highest roll tilt thresholds. These findings demonstrate the importance of roll tilt vestibular cues for balance, even in individuals reporting no vestibular symptoms and with no evidence of vestibular dysfunction. PMID:29167656

Acceptable regret in medical decision making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, B; Hozo, I; Schwartz, A; McMasters, K M

1999-09-01

When faced with medical decisions involving uncertain outcomes, the principles of decision theory hold that we should select the option with the highest expected utility to maximize health over time. Whether a decision proves right or wrong can be learned only in retrospect, when it may become apparent that another course of action would have been preferable. This realization may bring a sense of loss, or regret. When anticipated regret is compelling, a decision maker may choose to violate expected utility theory to avoid regret. We formulate a concept of acceptable regret in medical decision making that explicitly introduces the patient's attitude toward loss of health due to a mistaken decision into decision making. In most cases, minimizing expected regret results in the same decision as maximizing expected utility. However, when acceptable regret is taken into consideration, the threshold probability below which we can comfortably withhold treatment is a function only of the net benefit of the treatment, and the threshold probability above which we can comfortably administer the treatment depends only on the magnitude of the risks associated with the therapy. By considering acceptable regret, we develop new conceptual relations that can help decide whether treatment should be withheld or administered, especially when the diagnosis is uncertain. This may be particularly beneficial in deciding what constitutes futile medical care.

Performance breakdown in optimal stimulus decoding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostal, Lubomir; Lansky, Petr; Pilarski, Stevan

2015-06-01

Objective. One of the primary goals of neuroscience is to understand how neurons encode and process information about their environment. The problem is often approached indirectly by examining the degree to which the neuronal response reflects the stimulus feature of interest. Approach. In this context, the methods of signal estimation and detection theory provide the theoretical limits on the decoding accuracy with which the stimulus can be identified. The Cramér-Rao lower bound on the decoding precision is widely used, since it can be evaluated easily once the mathematical model of the stimulus-response relationship is determined. However, little is known about the behavior of different decoding schemes with respect to the bound if the neuronal population size is limited. Main results. We show that under broad conditions the optimal decoding displays a threshold-like shift in performance in dependence on the population size. The onset of the threshold determines a critical range where a small increment in size, signal-to-noise ratio or observation time yields a dramatic gain in the decoding precision. Significance. We demonstrate the existence of such threshold regions in early auditory and olfactory information coding. We discuss the origin of the threshold effect and its impact on the design of effective coding approaches in terms of relevant population size.

Influence of network dynamics on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases.

PubMed

Risau-Gusman, Sebastián

2012-06-07

Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account by assuming that the relevant information to study epidemic spread is encoded in the network obtained, by considering numbers of partners accumulated over periods of time roughly proportional to the infectious period of the disease. On the other hand, models explicitly including social dynamics are often too schematic to provide a reasonable representation of a real population, or so detailed that no general conclusions can be drawn from them. Here, we present a model of social dynamics that is general enough so its parameters can be obtained by fitting data from surveys about sexual behaviour, but that can still be studied analytically, using mean-field techniques. This allows us to obtain some general results about epidemic spreading. We show that using accumulated network data to estimate the static epidemic threshold lead to a significant underestimation of that threshold. We also show that, for a dynamic network, the relative epidemic threshold is an increasing function of the infectious period of the disease, implying that the static value is a lower bound to the real threshold. A practical example is given of how to apply the model to the study of a real population.

Influence of network dynamics on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases

PubMed Central

Risau-Gusman, Sebastián

2012-01-01

Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account by assuming that the relevant information to study epidemic spread is encoded in the network obtained, by considering numbers of partners accumulated over periods of time roughly proportional to the infectious period of the disease. On the other hand, models explicitly including social dynamics are often too schematic to provide a reasonable representation of a real population, or so detailed that no general conclusions can be drawn from them. Here, we present a model of social dynamics that is general enough so its parameters can be obtained by fitting data from surveys about sexual behaviour, but that can still be studied analytically, using mean-field techniques. This allows us to obtain some general results about epidemic spreading. We show that using accumulated network data to estimate the static epidemic threshold lead to a significant underestimation of that threshold. We also show that, for a dynamic network, the relative epidemic threshold is an increasing function of the infectious period of the disease, implying that the static value is a lower bound to the real threshold. A practical example is given of how to apply the model to the study of a real population. PMID:22112655

Performance breakdown in optimal stimulus decoding.

PubMed

Lubomir Kostal; Lansky, Petr; Pilarski, Stevan

2015-06-01

One of the primary goals of neuroscience is to understand how neurons encode and process information about their environment. The problem is often approached indirectly by examining the degree to which the neuronal response reflects the stimulus feature of interest. In this context, the methods of signal estimation and detection theory provide the theoretical limits on the decoding accuracy with which the stimulus can be identified. The Cramér-Rao lower bound on the decoding precision is widely used, since it can be evaluated easily once the mathematical model of the stimulus-response relationship is determined. However, little is known about the behavior of different decoding schemes with respect to the bound if the neuronal population size is limited. We show that under broad conditions the optimal decoding displays a threshold-like shift in performance in dependence on the population size. The onset of the threshold determines a critical range where a small increment in size, signal-to-noise ratio or observation time yields a dramatic gain in the decoding precision. We demonstrate the existence of such threshold regions in early auditory and olfactory information coding. We discuss the origin of the threshold effect and its impact on the design of effective coding approaches in terms of relevant population size.

Turnover of Village Chickens Undermines Vaccine Coverage to Control HPAI H5N1.

PubMed

Villanueva-Cabezas, J P; Campbell, P T; McCaw, J M; Durr, P A; McVernon, J

2017-02-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 remains an enzootic disease of village chickens in Indonesia, posing ongoing risk at the animal-human interface. Previous modelling showed that the fast natural turnover of chicken populations might undermine herd immunity after vaccination, although actual details of how this effect applies to Indonesia's village chicken population have not been determined. We explored the turnover effect in Indonesia's scavenging and mixed populations of village chickens using an extended Leslie matrix model parameterized with data collected from village chicken flocks in Java region, Indonesia. Population dynamics were simulated for 208 weeks; the turnover effect was simulated for 16 weeks after vaccination in two 'best case' scenarios, where the whole population (scenario 1), or birds aged over 14 days (scenario 2), were vaccinated. We found that the scavenging and mixed populations have different productive traits. When steady-state dynamics are reached, both populations are dominated by females (54.5%), and 'growers' and 'chicks' represent the most abundant age stages with 39% and 38% in the scavenging, and 60% and 25% in the mixed population, respectively. Simulations showed that the population turnover might reduce the herd immunity below the critical threshold that prevents the re-emergence of HPAI H5N1 4-8 weeks (scavenging) and 6-9 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 1, and 2-6 weeks (scavenging) and 4-7 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 2. In conclusion, we found that Indonesia's village chicken population does not have a unique underlying population dynamic and therefore, different turnover effects on herd immunity may be expected after vaccination; nonetheless, our simulations carried out in best case scenarios highlight the limitations of current vaccine technologies to control HPAI H5N1. This suggests that the improvements and complementary strategies are necessary and must be explored. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Simulation of MAD Cow Disease Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M. S.; Maksymowicz, A. Z.; Gołdasz, J.

Computer simulation of dynamic of BSE disease is presented. Both vertical (to baby) and horizontal (to neighbor) mechanisms of the disease spread are considered. The game takes place on a two-dimensional square lattice Nx×Ny = 1000×1000 with initial population randomly distributed on the net. The disease may be introduced either with the initial population or by a spontaneous development of BSE in an item, at a small frequency. Main results show a critical probability of the BSE transmission above which the disease is present in the population. This value is vulnerable to possible spatial clustering of the population and it also depends on the mechanism responsible for the disease onset, evolution and propagation. A threshold birth rate below which the population is extinct is seen. Above this threshold the population is disease free at equilibrium until another birth rate value is reached when the disease is present in population. For typical model parameters used for the simulation, which may correspond to the mad cow disease, we are close to the BSE-free case.

Observation of a cross-section enhancement near mass threshold in e+e-→Λ Λ ¯

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.; Ai, X. C.; Albayrak, O.; Albrecht, M.; Ambrose, D. J.; Amoroso, A.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; Bai, J. Z.; Bakina, O.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Ban, Y.; Bennett, D. W.; Bennett, J. V.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M.; Bettoni, D.; Bian, J. M.; Bianchi, F.; Boger, E.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Cai, H.; Cai, X.; Cakir, O.; Calcaterra, A.; Cao, G. F.; Cetin, S. A.; Chai, J.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, X.; Chen, X. R.; Chen, Y. B.; Chu, X. K.; Cibinetto, G.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dbeyssi, A.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denig, A.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; de Mori, F.; Ding, Y.; Dong, C.; Dong, J.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Dou, Z. L.; Du, S. X.; Duan, P. F.; Fan, J. Z.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Fang, X.; Fang, Y.; Farinelli, R.; Fava, L.; Fegan, S.; Feldbauer, F.; Felici, G.; Feng, C. Q.; Fioravanti, E.; Fritsch, M.; Fu, C. D.; Gao, Q.; Gao, X. L.; Gao, Y.; Gao, Z.; Garzia, I.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, L.; Gong, W. X.; Gradl, W.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, R. P.; Guo, Y.; Guo, Y. P.; Haddadi, Z.; Hafner, A.; Han, S.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; Heinsius, F. H.; Held, T.; Heng, Y. K.; Holtmann, T.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, C.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, T.; Hu, Y.; Huang, G. S.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, X. Z.; Huang, Z. L.; Hussain, T.; Ikegami Andersson, W.; Ji, Q.; Ji, Q. P.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jiang, L. W.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiang, X. Y.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Johansson, T.; Julin, A.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kang, X. L.; Kang, X. S.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Ke, B. C.; Kiese, P.; Kliemt, R.; Kloss, B.; Kolcu, O. B.; Kopf, B.; Kornicer, M.; Kupsc, A.; Kühn, W.; Lange, J. S.; Lara, M.; Larin, P.; Leithoff, H.; Leng, C.; Li, C.; Li, Cheng; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, F. Y.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, H. J.; Li, J. C.; Li, Jin; Li, K.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, P. L.; Li, P. R.; Li, Q. Y.; Li, T.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, Y. B.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, G. R.; Lin, D. X.; Liu, B.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, D.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, J.; Liu, J. B.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, J. Y.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, L. D.; Liu, P. L.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Y. Y.; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H.; Long, Y. F.; Lou, X. C.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Y.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lyu, X. R.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, L. L.; Ma, M. M.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, T.; Ma, X. N.; Ma, X. Y.; Ma, Y. M.; Maas, F. E.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Marcello, S.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Mezzadri, G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Mo, Y. J.; Morales Morales, C.; Morello, G.; Muchnoi, N. Yu.; Muramatsu, H.; Musiol, P.; Nefedov, Y.; Nerling, F.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Nisar, S.; Niu, S. L.; Niu, X. Y.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Pan, Y.; Papenbrock, M.; Patteri, P.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peng, H. P.; Peters, K.; Pettersson, J.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Prasad, V.; Qi, H. R.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, L. Q.; Qin, N.; Qin, X. S.; Qin, Z. H.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Redmer, C. F.; Ripka, M.; Rong, G.; Rosner, Ch.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Savrié, M.; Schnier, C.; Schoenning, K.; Shan, W.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, P. X.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Song, W. M.; Song, X. Y.; Sosio, S.; Spataro, S.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. H.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Tapan, I.; Thorndike, E. H.; Tiemens, M.; Uman, I.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. L.; Wang, D.; Wang, D. Y.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, W.; Wang, W. P.; Wang, X. F.; Wang, Y.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. H.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wang, Zongyuan; Weber, T.; Wei, D. H.; Weidenkaff, P.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wolke, M.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, L. J.; Wu, Z.; Xia, L.; Xia, L. G.; Xia, Y.; Xiao, D.; Xiao, H.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xie, Y. H.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, J. J.; Xu, L.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, Q. N.; Xu, X. P.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, W. C.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. J.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, L.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yin, J. H.; You, Z. Y.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, J. S.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, Y.; Yuncu, A.; Zafar, A. A.; Zeng, Y.; Zeng, Z.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. J.; Zhang, J. L.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. Q.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. N.; Zhang, Y. T.; Zhang, Yu; Zhang, Z. H.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, J. W.; Zhao, J. Y.; Zhao, J. Z.; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, Q. W.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, W. J.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zhong, B.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhou, X. Y.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, Y. C.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zotti, L.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Besiii Collaboration

2018-02-01

The process e+e-→Λ Λ ¯ is studied using data samples at √{s }=2.2324 , 2.400, 2.800 and 3.080 GeV collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII collider. The Born cross section is measured at √{s }=2.2324 GeV , which is 1.0 MeV above the Λ Λ ¯ mass threshold, to be 305 ±4 5-36+66 pb , where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The cross section near threshold is larger than that expected from theory, which predicts the cross section to vanish at threshold. The Born cross sections at √{s }=2.400 , 2.800 and 3.080 GeV are measured and found to be consistent with previous experimental results, but with improved precision. Finally, the corresponding effective electromagnetic form factors of Λ are deduced.

Fault tolerance with noisy and slow measurements and preparation.

PubMed

Paz-Silva, Gerardo A; Brennen, Gavin K; Twamley, Jason

2010-09-03

It is not so well known that measurement-free quantum error correction protocols can be designed to achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing. Despite their potential advantages in terms of the relaxation of accuracy, speed, and addressing requirements, they have usually been overlooked since they are expected to yield a very bad threshold. We show that this is not the case. We design fault-tolerant circuits for the 9-qubit Bacon-Shor code and find an error threshold for unitary gates and preparation of p((p,g)thresh)=3.76×10(-5) (30% of the best known result for the same code using measurement) while admitting up to 1/3 error rates for measurements and allocating no constraints on measurement speed. We further show that demanding gate error rates sufficiently below the threshold pushes the preparation threshold up to p((p)thresh)=1/3.

The Affinity of D2-Like Dopamine Receptor Antagonists Determines the Time to Maximal Effect on Cocaine Self-Administration

PubMed Central

Tabet, Michael R.; Norman, Mantana K.; Fey, Brittney K.; Tsibulsky, Vladimir L.; Millard, Ronald W.

2011-01-01

Differences in the time to maximal effect (Tmax) of a series of dopamine receptor antagonists on the self-administration of cocaine are not consistent with their lipophilicity (octanol-water partition coefficients at pH 7.4) and expected rapid entry into the brain after intravenous injection. It was hypothesized that the Tmax reflects the time required for maximal occupancy of receptors, which would occur as equilibrium was approached. If so, the Tmax should be related to the affinity for the relevant receptor population. This hypothesis was tested using a series of nine antagonists having a 2500-fold range of Ki or Kd values for D2-like dopamine receptors. Rats self-administered cocaine at regular intervals and then were injected intravenously with a dose of antagonist, and the self-administration of cocaine was continued for 6 to 10 h. The level of cocaine at the time of every self-administration (satiety threshold) was calculated throughout the session. The satiety threshold was stable before the injection of antagonist and then increased approximately 3-fold over the baseline value at doses of antagonists selected to produce this approximately equivalent maximal magnitude of effect (maximum increase in the equiactive cocaine concentration, satiety threshold; Cmax). Despite the similar Cmax, the mean Tmax varied between 5 and 157 min across this series of antagonists. Furthermore, there was a strong and significant correlation between the in vivo Tmax values for each antagonist and the affinity for D2-like dopamine receptors measured in vitro. It is concluded that the cocaine self-administration paradigm offers a reliable and predictive bioassay for measuring the affinity of a competitive antagonist for D2-like dopamine receptors. PMID:21606176

Effects of urbanization on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams, Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ourso, Robert T.

2001-01-01

The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was examined by using data gathered during a 1999 reconnaissance of 14 sites in the Municipality of Anchorage, Alaska. Data collected included macroinvertebrate abundance, water chemistry, and trace elements in bed sediments. Macroinvertebrate relative-abundance data were edited and used in metric and index calculations. Population density was used as a surrogate for urbanization. Cluster analysis (unweighted-paired-grouping method) using arithmetic means of macroinvertebrate presence-absence data showed a well-defined separation between urbanized and nonurbanized sites as well as extracted sites that did not cleanly fall into either category. Water quality in Anchorage generally declined with increasing urbanization (population density). Of 59 variables examined, 31 correlated with urbanization. Local regression analysis extracted 11 variables that showed a significant impairment threshold response and 6 that showed a significant linear response. Significant biological variables for determining the impairment threshold in this study were the Margalef diversity index, Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera taxa richness, and total taxa richness. Significant thresholds were observed in the water-chemistry variables conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, potassium, and total dissolved solids. Significant thresholds in trace elements in bed sediments included arsenic, iron, manganese, and lead. Results suggest that sites in Anchorage that have ratios of population density to road density greater than 70, storm-drain densities greater than 0.45 miles per square mile, road densities greater than 4 miles per square mile, or population densities greater than 125-150 persons per square mile may require further monitoring to determine if the stream has become impaired. This population density is far less than the 1,000 persons per square mile used by the U.S. Census Bureau to define an urban area.

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

2017-05-01

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2018-01-01

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

PubMed Central

Hanks, Thomas C.

2018-01-01

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information. PMID:29750190

Critical thresholds in species` responses to landscape structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

With, K.A.; Crist, T.O.

1995-12-01

Critical thresholds are transition ranges across which small changes in spatial pattern produce abrupt shifts in ecological responses. Habitat fragmentation provides a familiar example of a critical threshold. As the landscape becomes dissected into smaller parcels of habitat. landscape connectivity-the functional linkage among habitat patches - may suddenly become disrupted, which may have important consequences for the distribution and persistence of populations. Landscape connectivity depends not only on the abundance and spatial patterning of habitat. but also on the habitat specificity and dispersal abilities of species. Habitat specialists with limited dispersal capabilities presumably have a much lower threshold to habitatmore » fragmentation than highly vagile species, which may perceive the landscape as functionally connected across a greater range of fragmentation severity. To determine where threshold effects in species, responses to landscape structure are likely to occur, a simulation model modified from percolation theory was developed. Our simulations predicted the distributional patterns of populations in different landscape mosaics, which we tested empirically using two grasshopper species (Orthoptera: Acrididae) that occur in the shortgrass prairie of north-central Colorado. The distribution of these two species in this grassland mosaic matched the predictions from our simulations. By providing quantitative predictions of threshold effects, this modelling approach may prove useful in the formulation of conservation strategies and assessment of land-use changes on species` distributional patterns and persistence.« less

Critical thresholds in sea lice epidemics: evidence, sensitivity and subcritical estimation

PubMed Central

Frazer, L. Neil; Morton, Alexandra; Krkošek, Martin

2012-01-01

Host density thresholds are a fundamental component of the population dynamics of pathogens, but empirical evidence and estimates are lacking. We studied host density thresholds in the dynamics of ectoparasitic sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on salmon farms. Empirical examples include a 1994 epidemic in Atlantic Canada and a 2001 epidemic in Pacific Canada. A mathematical model suggests dynamics of lice are governed by a stable endemic equilibrium until the critical host density threshold drops owing to environmental change, or is exceeded by stocking, causing epidemics that require rapid harvest or treatment. Sensitivity analysis of the critical threshold suggests variation in dependence on biotic parameters and high sensitivity to temperature and salinity. We provide a method for estimating the critical threshold from parasite abundances at subcritical host densities and estimate the critical threshold and transmission coefficient for the two epidemics. Host density thresholds may be a fundamental component of disease dynamics in coastal seas where salmon farming occurs. PMID:22217721

From individual to population level effects of toxicants in the tubicifid Branchiura sowerbyi using threshold effect models in a Bayesian framework.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Billoir, Elise; Péry, Alexandre R R; Garric, Jeanne; Charles, Sandrine

2010-05-01

Effects of zinc were studied in the freshwater worm Branchiura sowerbyi using partial and full life-cycle tests. Only newborn and juveniles were sensitive to zinc, displaying effects on survival, growth, and age at first brood at environmentally relevant concentrations. Threshold effect models were proposed to assess toxic effects on individuals. They were fitted to life-cycle test data using Bayesian inference and adequately described life-history trait data in exposed organisms. The daily asymptotic growth rate of theoretical populations was then simulated with a matrix population model, based upon individual-level outputs. Population-level outputs were in accordance with existing literature for controls. Working in a Bayesian framework allowed incorporating parameter uncertainty in the simulation of the population-level response to zinc exposure, thus increasing the relevance of test results in the context of ecological risk assessment.

Central and rear-edge populations can be equally vulnerable to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Scott; Wernberg, Thomas; Arackal Joy, Bijo; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Campbell, Alexandra H.

2015-12-01

Rear (warm) edge populations are often considered more susceptible to warming than central (cool) populations because of the warmer ambient temperatures they experience, but this overlooks the potential for local variation in thermal tolerances. Here we provide conceptual models illustrating how sensitivity to warming is affected throughout a species' geographical range for locally adapted and non-adapted populations. We test these models for a range-contracting seaweed using observations from a marine heatwave and a 12-month experiment, translocating seaweeds among central, present and historic range edge locations. Growth, reproductive development and survivorship display different temperature thresholds among central and rear-edge populations, but share a 2.5 °C anomaly threshold. Range contraction, therefore, reflects variation in local anomalies rather than differences in absolute temperatures. This demonstrates that warming sensitivity can be similar throughout a species geographical range and highlights the importance of incorporating local adaptation and acclimatization into climate change vulnerability assessments.

[Hypercholesterolemia-related cardiovascular risk: a continuum from a notion of normality, intervention threshold and therapeutic objectives].

PubMed

Scheen, A J

1999-01-01

There appears to be a continuum between the cardiovascular risk and the level of blood cholesterol, which hinders the definition of normal values, intervention threshold and therapeutic goals. The more and more convincing evidences provided by the "Evidence-Based Medicine" should be confronted to the pharmaco-economical constraints in order to first focus the essential of the efforts and resources on the target population with the highest risk. Unfortunately, the therapeutic strategy concerns a rather high percentage of the population of industrialized countries.

Evaluation on the cost-effective threshold of osteoporosis treatment on elderly women in China using discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Ni, W; Jiang, Y

2017-02-01

This study used a simulation model to determine the cost-effective threshold of fracture risk to treat osteoporosis among elderly Chinese women. Osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among average-risk women who are at least 75 years old and above-average-risk women who are younger than 75 years old. Aging of the Chinese population is imposing increasing economic burden of osteoporosis. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment among the senior Chinese women population. A discrete event simulation model using age-specific probabilities of hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture; costs (2015 US dollars); and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. The willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY in China was compared with the calculated ICER to decide the cost-effectiveness. To determine the absolute 10-year hip fracture probability at which the osteoporosis treatment became cost-effective, average age-specific probabilities for all fractures were multiplied by a relative risk (RR) that was systematically varied from 0 to 10 until the WTP threshold was observed for treatment relative to no intervention. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to evaluate the impacts from WTP and annual treatment costs. In baseline analysis, simulated ICERs were higher than the WTP threshold among Chinese women younger than 75, but much lower than the WTP among the older population. Sensitivity analyses indicated that cost-effectiveness could vary due to a higher WTP threshold or a lower annual treatment cost. A 30 % increase in WTP or a 30 % reduction in annual treatment costs will make osteoporosis treatment cost-effective for Chinese women population from 55 to 85. The current study provides evidence that osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among a subpopulation of Chinese senior women. The results also indicate that the cost-effectiveness of using osteoporosis treatment is sensitive to the WTP threshold and annual treatment costs.

Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.

PubMed

Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H

2016-05-01

Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The estimated correlations between comfort and THIavg values of 70 (which represents the upper end of the THIavg scale in BEL-LUX) were lower for BEL-LUX (0.70-0.80) than for SPA (0.83-0.85). Overall, animals producing in the more temperate climates and semi-extensive grazing systems of BEL and LUX showed HS at lower heat loads and more re-ranking across the THI scale than animals producing in the warmer climate and intensive indoor system of SPA. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analyses of Fatigue Crack Growth and Closure Near Threshold Conditions for Large-Crack Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, J. C., Jr.

1999-01-01

A plasticity-induced crack-closure model was used to study fatigue crack growth and closure in thin 2024-T3 aluminum alloy under constant-R and constant-K(sub max) threshold testing procedures. Two methods of calculating crack-opening stresses were compared. One method was based on a contact-K analyses and the other on crack-opening-displacement (COD) analyses. These methods gave nearly identical results under constant-amplitude loading, but under threshold simulations the contact-K analyses gave lower opening stresses than the contact COD method. Crack-growth predictions tend to support the use of contact-K analyses. Crack-growth simulations showed that remote closure can cause a rapid rise in opening stresses in the near threshold regime for low-constraint and high applied stress levels. Under low applied stress levels and high constraint, a rise in opening stresses was not observed near threshold conditions. But crack-tip-opening displacement (CTOD) were of the order of measured oxide thicknesses in the 2024 alloy under constant-R simulations. In contrast, under constant-K(sub max) testing the CTOD near threshold conditions were an order-of-magnitude larger than measured oxide thicknesses. Residual-plastic deformations under both constant-R and constant-K(sub max) threshold simulations were several times larger than the expected oxide thicknesses. Thus, residual-plastic deformations, in addition to oxide and roughness, play an integral part in threshold development.

Bottomonium-like states: Physics case for energy scan above the BB¯ threshold at Belle-II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondar, A. E.; Mizuk, R. V.; Voloshin, M. B.

2017-02-01

The Belle-II experiment is expected to collect large data samples at the Υ(4S) and Υ(5S) resonances to study primarily B and Bs mesons. We discuss what other data above the BB¯ threshold are of interest. We propose to perform a high-statistics energy scan from the BB¯ threshold up to the highest possible energy, and to collect data at the Υ(6S) and at higher mass states if they are found in the scan. We emphasize the interest in increasing the maximal energy from 11.24 GeV to 11.5-12 GeV in the future. These data are needed for the investigation of bottomonium and bottomonium-like states.

Algorithmic detectability threshold of the stochastic block model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamoto, Tatsuro

2018-03-01

The assumption that the values of model parameters are known or correctly learned, i.e., the Nishimori condition, is one of the requirements for the detectability analysis of the stochastic block model in statistical inference. In practice, however, there is no example demonstrating that we can know the model parameters beforehand, and there is no guarantee that the model parameters can be learned accurately. In this study, we consider the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm with belief propagation (BP) and derive its algorithmic detectability threshold. Our analysis is not restricted to the community structure but includes general modular structures. Because the algorithm cannot always learn the planted model parameters correctly, the algorithmic detectability threshold is qualitatively different from the one with the Nishimori condition.

Which type of leader do I support in step-level public good dilemmas? The roles of level of threshold and trust.

PubMed

De Cremer, David

2007-02-01

The present research examined the moderating effect of the level of threshold on people's preferences for different leader types in step-level public good dilemmas. It was assumed that the primary focus of people in step-level public good dilemmas is to make sure that the group surpasses the threshold. Consequently, when the level of threshold is difficult to reach people are expected to provide more support for and cooperate with a leader that monitors and controls the contributions made toward the public good. However, if the threshold is easy to surpass people will focus more on whether the obtained public good or bonus will be distributed according to agreements, suggesting that people will provide more support to and cooperate with a leader that monitors and controls the distribution of the bonus. These predictions were confirmed across two experiments using a step-level public good paradigm with a dichotomous (Study 1) and a continuous (Study 2) contribution choice. Moreover, the results also revealed that perceptions of trust accounted, in part, for the effect of level of threshold on people's leadership preferences.

Spontaneous otoacoustic emissions, threshold microstructure, and psychophysical tuning over a wide frequency range in humansa

PubMed Central

Baiduc, Rachael R.; Lee, Jungmee; Dhar, Sumitrajit

2014-01-01

Hearing thresholds have been shown to exhibit periodic minima and maxima, a pattern known as threshold microstructure. Microstructure has previously been linked to spontaneous otoacoustic emissions (SOAEs) and normal cochlear function. However, SOAEs at high frequencies (>4 kHz) have been associated with hearing loss or cochlear pathology in some reports. Microstructure would not be expected near these high-frequency SOAEs. Psychophysical tuning curves (PTCs), the expression of frequency selectivity, may also be altered by SOAEs. Prior comparisons of tuning between ears with and without SOAEs demonstrated sharper tuning in ears with emissions. Here, threshold microstructure and PTCs were compared at SOAE frequencies ranging between 1.2 and 13.9 kHz using subjects without SOAEs as controls. Results indicate: (1) Threshold microstructure is observable in the vicinity of SOAEs of all frequencies; (2) PTCs are influenced by SOAEs, resulting in shifted tuning curve tips, multiple tips, or inversion. High frequency SOAEs show a greater effect on PTC morphology. The influence of most SOAEs at high frequencies on threshold microstructure and PTCs is consistent with those at lower frequencies, suggesting that high-frequency SOAEs reflect the same cochlear processes that lead to SOAEs at lower frequencies. PMID:24437770

Bayesian methods for estimating GEBVs of threshold traits

PubMed Central

Wang, C-L; Ding, X-D; Wang, J-Y; Liu, J-F; Fu, W-X; Zhang, Z; Yin, Z-J; Zhang, Q

2013-01-01

Estimation of genomic breeding values is the key step in genomic selection (GS). Many methods have been proposed for continuous traits, but methods for threshold traits are still scarce. Here we introduced threshold model to the framework of GS, and specifically, we extended the three Bayesian methods BayesA, BayesB and BayesCπ on the basis of threshold model for estimating genomic breeding values of threshold traits, and the extended methods are correspondingly termed BayesTA, BayesTB and BayesTCπ. Computing procedures of the three BayesT methods using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm were derived. A simulation study was performed to investigate the benefit of the presented methods in accuracy with the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for threshold traits. Factors affecting the performance of the three BayesT methods were addressed. As expected, the three BayesT methods generally performed better than the corresponding normal Bayesian methods, in particular when the number of phenotypic categories was small. In the standard scenario (number of categories=2, incidence=30%, number of quantitative trait loci=50, h2=0.3), the accuracies were improved by 30.4%, 2.4%, and 5.7% points, respectively. In most scenarios, BayesTB and BayesTCπ generated similar accuracies and both performed better than BayesTA. In conclusion, our work proved that threshold model fits well for predicting GEBVs of threshold traits, and BayesTCπ is supposed to be the method of choice for GS of threshold traits. PMID:23149458

Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models.

PubMed

Peckham, Scott D; Waymire, Edward C; De Leenheer, Patrick

2018-02-16

This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population's growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

Threshold responses of Amazonian stream fishes to timing and extent of deforestation.

PubMed

Brejão, Gabriel L; Hoeinghaus, David J; Pérez-Mayorga, María Angélica; Ferraz, Silvio F B; Casatti, Lilian

2017-12-06

Deforestation is a primary driver of biodiversity change through habitat loss and fragmentation. Stream biodiversity may not respond to deforestation in a simple linear relationship. Rather, threshold responses to extent and timing of deforestation may occur. Identification of critical deforestation thresholds is needed for effective conservation and management. We tested for threshold responses of fish species and functional groups to degree of watershed and riparian zone deforestation and time since impact in 75 streams in the western Brazilian Amazon. We used remote sensing to assess deforestation from 1984 to 2011. Fish assemblages were sampled with seines and dip nets in a standardized manner. Fish species (n = 84) were classified into 20 functional groups based on ecomorphological traits associated with habitat use, feeding, and locomotion. Threshold responses were quantified using threshold indicator taxa analysis. Negative threshold responses to deforestation were common and consistently occurred at very low levels of deforestation (<20%) and soon after impact (<10 years). Sensitive species were functionally unique and associated with complex habitats and structures of allochthonous origin found in forested watersheds. Positive threshold responses of species were less common and generally occurred at >70% deforestation and >10 years after impact. Findings were similar at the community level for both taxonomic and functional analyses. Because most negative threshold responses occurred at low levels of deforestation and soon after impact, even minimal change is expected to negatively affect biodiversity. Delayed positive threshold responses to extreme deforestation by a few species do not offset the loss of sensitive taxa and likely contribute to biotic homogenization. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of Planting Date, Small Grain Crop Destruction, Fallow, and Soil Temperature on the Management of Meloidogyne incognita

PubMed Central

Johnson, A. W.; Motsinger, R. E.

1990-01-01

The effects of planting date, rye (Secale cereale cv. Wren Abruzzi) and wheat (Triticura aestivum cv. Coker 797), crop destruction, fallow, and soil temperature on managing Meloidogyne incognita race 1 were determined in a 2-year study. More M. incognita juveniles (J2) and egg-producing adults were found in roots of rye planted 1 October than in roots of rye planted 1 November and wheat planted 1 November and 1 December. Numbers of M. incognita adults with and without egg masses were near or below detectable levels in roots of rye planted 1 November and wheat planted 1 November and 1 December. Meloidogyne incognita survived the mild winters in southern Georgia as J2 and eggs. The destruction of rye and wheat as a trap crop 1 March suppressed numbers of J2 in the soil temporarily but did not provide long-term benefits for susceptible crops that followed. In warmer areas where rye and wheat are grown in winter, reproduction of M. incognita may be avoided by delaying planting dates until soil temperature declines below the nematode penetration threshold (18 C), but no long-term benefits should be expected. The temperature threshold may be an important consideration in managing M. incognita population densities in areas having lower winter soil temperatures than southern Georgia. PMID:19287731

[Using value of information analysis in decision making about applied research. The case of genetic screening for hemochromatosis in Germany].

PubMed

Rogowski, W H; Grosse, S D; Meyer, E; John, J; Palmer, S

2012-05-01

Public decision makers face demands to invest in applied research in order to accelerate the adoption of new genetic tests. However, such an investment is profitable only if the results gained from further investigations have a significant impact on health care practice. An upper limit for the value of additional information aimed at improving the basis for reimbursement decisions is given by the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). This study illustrates the significance of the concept of EVPI on the basis of a probabilistic cost-effectiveness model of screening for hereditary hemochromatosis among German men. In the present example, population-based screening can barely be recommended at threshold values of 50,000 or 100,000 Euro per life year gained and also the value of additional research which might cause this decision to be overturned is small: At the mentioned threshold values, the EVPI in the German public health care system was ca. 500,000 and 2,200,000 Euro, respectively. An analysis of EVPI by individual parameters or groups of parameters shows that additional research about adherence to preventive phlebotomy could potentially provide the highest benefit. The potential value of further research also depends on methodological assumptions regarding the decision maker's time horizon as well as on scenarios with an impact on the number of affected patients and the cost-effectiveness of screening.

Cost-effectiveness of Population Screening for BRCA Mutations in Ashkenazi Jewish Women Compared With Family History–Based Testing

PubMed Central

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Burnell, Matthew; McGuire, Alistair; Raikou, Maria; Loggenberg, Kelly; Wardle, Jane; Sanderson, Saskia; Gessler, Sue; Side, Lucy; Balogun, Nyala; Desai, Rakshit; Kumar, Ajith; Dorkins, Huw; Wallis, Yvonne; Chapman, Cyril; Taylor, Rohan; Jacobs, Chris; Tomlinson, Ian; Beller, Uziel; Menon, Usha

2015-01-01

Background: Population-based testing for BRCA1/2 mutations detects the high proportion of carriers not identified by cancer family history (FH)–based testing. We compared the cost-effectiveness of population-based BRCA testing with the standard FH-based approach in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women. Methods: A decision-analytic model was developed to compare lifetime costs and effects amongst AJ women in the UK of BRCA founder-mutation testing amongst: 1) all women in the population age 30 years or older and 2) just those with a strong FH (≥10% mutation risk). The model assumes that BRCA carriers are offered risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy and annual MRI/mammography screening or risk-reducing mastectomy. Model probabilities utilize the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial/published literature to estimate total costs, effects in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cancer incidence, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and population impact. Costs are reported at 2010 prices. Costs/outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. We used deterministic/probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate model uncertainty. Results: Compared with FH-based testing, population-screening saved 0.090 more life-years and 0.101 more QALYs resulting in 33 days’ gain in life expectancy. Population screening was found to be cost saving with a baseline-discounted ICER of -£2079/QALY. Population-based screening lowered ovarian and breast cancer incidence by 0.34% and 0.62%. Assuming 71% testing uptake, this leads to 276 fewer ovarian and 508 fewer breast cancer cases. Overall, reduction in treatment costs led to a discounted cost savings of £3.7 million. Deterministic sensitivity analysis and 94% of simulations on PSA (threshold £20000) indicated that population screening is cost-effective, compared with current NHS policy. Conclusion: Population-based screening for BRCA mutations is highly cost-effective compared with an FH-based approach in AJ women age 30 years and older. PMID:25435542

A Locust Phase Change Model with Multiple Switching States and Random Perturbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Changcheng; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.; Qin, Wenjie

2016-12-01

Insects such as locusts and some moths can transform from a solitarious phase when they remain in loose populations and a gregarious phase, when they may swarm. Therefore, the key to effective management of outbreaks of species such as the desert locust Schistocercagregaria is early detection of when they are in the threshold state between the two phases, followed by timely control of their hopper stages before they fledge because the control of flying adult swarms is costly and often ineffective. Definitions of gregarization thresholds should assist preventive control measures and avoid treatment of areas that might not lead to gregarization. In order to better understand the effects of the threshold density which represents the gregarization threshold on the outbreak of a locust population, we developed a model of a discrete switching system. The proposed model allows us to address: (1) How frequently switching occurs from solitarious to gregarious phases and vice versa; (2) When do stable switching transients occur, the existence of which indicate that solutions with larger amplitudes can switch to a stable attractor with a value less than the switching threshold density?; and (3) How does random perturbation influence the switching pattern? Our results show that both subsystems have refuge equilibrium points, outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria. Further, the outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria can coexist for a wide range of parameters and can switch from one to another. This type of switching is sensitive to the intrinsic growth rate and the initial values of the locust population, and may result in locust population outbreaks and phase switching once a small perturbation occurs. Moreover, the simulation results indicate that the switching transient patterns become identical after some generations, suggesting that the evolving process of the perturbation system is not related to the initial value after some fixed number of generations for the same stochastic processes. However, the switching frequency and outbreak patterns can be significantly affected by the intensity of noise and the intrinsic growth rate of the locust population.

Determination of the threshold dose distribution in photodynamic action from in vitro experiments.

PubMed

de Faria, Clara Maria Gonçalves; Inada, Natalia Mayumi; Kurachi, Cristina; Bagnato, Vanderlei Salvador

2016-09-01

The concept of threshold in photodynamic action on cells or microorganisms is well observed in experiments but not fully explored on in vitro experiments. The intercomparison between light and used photosensitizer among many experiments is also poorly evaluated. In this report, we present an analytical model that allows extracting from the survival rate experiments the data of the threshold dose distribution, ie, the distribution of energies and photosensitizer concentration necessary to produce death of cells. Then, we use this model to investigate photodynamic therapy (PDT) data previously published in literature. The concept of threshold dose distribution instead of "single value of threshold" is a rich concept for the comparison of photodynamic action in different situations, allowing analyses of its efficiency as well as determination of optimized conditions for PDT. We observed that, in general, as it becomes more difficult to kill a population, the distribution tends to broaden, which means it presents a large spectrum of threshold values within the same cell type population. From the distribution parameters (center peak and full width), we also observed a clear distinction among cell types regarding their response to PDT that can be quantified. Comparing data obtained from the same cell line and used photosensitizer (PS), where the only distinct condition was the light source's wavelength, we found that the differences on the distribution parameters were comparable to the differences on the PS absorption. At last, we observed evidence that the threshold dose distribution matches the curve of apoptotic activity for some PSs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Size matters: concurrency and the epidemic potential of HIV in small networks.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Morris, Martina

2012-01-01

Generalized heterosexual epidemics are responsible for the largest share of the global burden of HIV. These occur in populations that do not have high rates of partner acquisition, and research suggests that a pattern of fewer, but concurrent, partnerships may be the mechanism that provides the connectivity necessary for sustained transmission. We examine how network size affects the impact of concurrency on network connectivity. We use a stochastic network model to generate a sample of networks, varying the size of the network and the level of concurrency, and compare the largest components for each scenario to the asymptotic expected values. While the threshold for the growth of a giant component does not change, the transition is more gradual in the smaller networks. As a result, low levels of concurrency generate more connectivity in small networks. Generalized HIV epidemics are by definition those that spread to a larger fraction of the population, but the mechanism may rely in part on the dynamics of transmission in a set of linked small networks. Examples include rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa and segregated minority populations in the US, where the effective size of the sexual network may well be in the hundreds, rather than thousands. Connectivity emerges at lower levels of concurrency in smaller networks, but these networks can still be disconnected with small changes in behavior. Concurrency remains a strategic target for HIV combination prevention programs in this context.

Development of an establishment scheme for a DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiang; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhu, Jiawen; Shao, Pu

2016-07-01

Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling establishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic factors on biogeophysics (e.g., global distribution, etc.), ignoring their roles in the population dynamics (e.g., seedling establishment rate, mortality rate, etc.) of ecological communities. Such neglect may lead to biases in ecosystem population dynamics (such as changes in population density for woody species in forest ecosystems) and characteristics. In the present study, a new establishment scheme for introducing soil water as a function rather than a threshold was developed and validated, using version 1.0 of the IAP-DGVM as a test bed. The results showed that soil water in the establishment scheme had a remarkable influence on forest transition zones. Compared with the original scheme, the new scheme significantly improved simulations of tree population density, especially in the peripheral areas of forests and transition zones. Consequently, biases in forest fractional coverage were reduced in approximately 78.8% of the global grid cells. The global simulated areas of tree, shrub, grass and bare soil performed better, where the relative biases were reduced from 34.3% to 4.8%, from 27.6% to 13.1%, from 55.2% to 9.2%, and from 37.6% to 3.6%, respectively. Furthermore, the new scheme had more reasonable dependencies of plant functional types (PFTs) on mean annual precipitation, and described the correct dominant PFTs in the tropical rainforest peripheral areas of the Amazon and central Africa.

Utilization of pheromones in the population management of moth pests.

PubMed Central

Cardé, R T

1976-01-01

Pheromones are substances emitted by one individual of a species and eliciting a specific response in a second individual of the same species. In moths (Lepidoptera) generally females lure males for mating by emission of a sex attractant pheromone comprised of either one or more components. Since 1966 the identification of the pheromone blends of many moth pests has allowed investigations into the use of these messengers for population manipulation. Pheromone-baited traps may be used both to detect pest presence and to estimate population density, so that conventional control tactics can be employed only as required and timed precisely for maximum effectiveness. Attractant traps also can be utilized for direct population suppression when the traps are deployed at a density effective in reducing mating success sufficiently to achieve control. A third use pattern of pheromones and related compounds is disruption of pheromone communication via atmospheric permeation with synthetic disruptants. The behavioral modifications involved in disruption of communication may include habituation of the normal response sequence (alteration of the pheromone response threshold) and "confusion" (inability of the organism to perceive and orient to the naturally emitted lure). Disruption of communication employing the natural pheromone components as the disruptant has been most successful, although nonattractant behavioral modifiers structurally similar to the pheromone components also may prove useful. Possible future resistance to direct pheromone manipulation may be expected to involve the evolution of behavioral and sensory changes that minimize the informational overlap between the natural pheromone system and the pheromone control technique. PMID:789060

40 CFR 98.360 - Definition of the source category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... animal population at the facility, by animal group APTL AG = Animal population threshold level, as... anaerobic lagoons, liquid/slurry systems with and without crust covers (including but not limited to ponds...

40 CFR 98.360 - Definition of the source category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... animal population at the facility, by animal group APTL AG = Animal population threshold level, as... anaerobic lagoons, liquid/slurry systems with and without crust covers (including but not limited to ponds...

40 CFR 98.360 - Definition of the source category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... animal population at the facility, by animal group APTL AG = Animal population threshold level, as... anaerobic lagoons, liquid/slurry systems with and without crust covers (including but not limited to ponds...

40 CFR 98.360 - Definition of the source category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... animal population at the facility, by animal group APTL AG = Animal population threshold level, as... anaerobic lagoons, liquid/slurry systems with and without crust covers (including but not limited to ponds...

Pressure and cold pain threshold reference values in a large, young adult, pain-free population.

PubMed

Waller, Robert; Smith, Anne Julia; O'Sullivan, Peter Bruce; Slater, Helen; Sterling, Michele; McVeigh, Joanne Alexandra; Straker, Leon Melville

2016-10-01

Currently there is a lack of large population studies that have investigated pain sensitivity distributions in healthy pain free people. The aims of this study were: (1) to provide sex-specific reference values of pressure and cold pain thresholds in young pain-free adults; (2) to examine the association of potential correlates of pain sensitivity with pain threshold values. This study investigated sex specific pressure and cold pain threshold estimates for young pain free adults aged 21-24 years. A cross-sectional design was utilised using participants (n=617) from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study at the 22-year follow-up. The association of site, sex, height, weight, smoking, health related quality of life, psychological measures and activity with pain threshold values was examined. Pressure pain threshold (lumbar spine, tibialis anterior, neck and dorsal wrist) and cold pain threshold (dorsal wrist) were assessed using standardised quantitative sensory testing protocols. Reference values for pressure pain threshold (four body sites) stratified by sex and site, and cold pain threshold (dorsal wrist) stratified by sex are provided. Statistically significant, independent correlates of increased pressure pain sensitivity measures were site (neck, dorsal wrist), sex (female), higher waist-hip ratio and poorer mental health. Statistically significant, independent correlates of increased cold pain sensitivity measures were, sex (female), poorer mental health and smoking. These data provide the most comprehensive and robust sex specific reference values for pressure pain threshold specific to four body sites and cold pain threshold at the dorsal wrist for young adults aged 21-24 years. Establishing normative values in this young age group is important given that the transition from adolescence to adulthood is a critical temporal period during which trajectories for persistent pain can be established. These data will provide an important research resource to enable more accurate profiling and interpretation of pain sensitivity in clinical pain disorders in young adults. The robust and comprehensive data can assist interpretation of future clinical pain studies and provide further insight into the complex associations of pain sensitivity that can be used in future research. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT): Exploring the Factor Structure and Cutoff Thresholds in a Representative Post-Conflict Population in Northern Uganda.

PubMed

Blair, Alden Hooper; Pearce, Margo Ellen; Katamba, Achilles; Malamba, Samuel S; Muyinda, Herbert; Schechter, Martin T; Spittal, Patricia M

2017-05-01

Despite increased use of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have assessed its underlying conceptual framework, and none have done so in post-conflict settings. Further, significant inconsistencies exist between definitions used for problematic consumption. Such is the case in Uganda, facing one of the highest per-capita alcohol consumption levels regionally, which is thought to be hindering rebuilding in the North after two decades of civil war. This study explores the impact of varying designation cutoff thresholds in the AUDIT as well as its conceptual factor structure in a representative sample of the population. In all, 1720 Cango Lyec Project participants completed socio-economic and mental health questionnaires, provided blood samples and took the AUDIT. Participant characteristics and consumption designations were compared at AUDIT summary score thresholds of ≥3, ≥5 and ≥8. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) explored one-, two- and three-factor level models overall and by sex with relative and absolute fit indicators. There were no significant differences in participant demographic characteristics between thresholds. At higher cutoffs, the test increased in specificity to identify those with hazardous drinking, disordered drinking and suffering from alcohol-related harms. All conceptual models indicated good fit, with three-factor models superior overall and within both sexes. In Northern Uganda, a three-factor AUDIT model best explores alcohol use in the population and is appropriate for use in both sexes. Lower cutoff thresholds are recommended to identify those with potentially disordered drinking to best plan effective interventions and treatments. A CFA of the AUDIT showed good fit for one-, two, and three-factor models overall and by sex in a representative sample in post-conflict Northern Uganda. A three-plus total AUDIT cutoff score is suggested to screen for hazardous drinking in this or similar populations. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Saturable nonlinear dielectric waveguide with applications to broad-area semiconductor lasers.

PubMed

Mehuys, D; Mittelstein, M; Salzman, J; Yariv, A

1987-11-01

Self-focusing in a passive dielectric waveguide with a saturable nonlinearity is studied. The eigensolutions constitute a good approximation to the lateral modes of broad-area semiconductor lasers under low-duty-cycle pulsed conditions. The laser modes are predicted to consist of adjacent filaments coupled in phase, leading to a single-lobed far field, and to be stable with increased current injection above saturation intensity. The ultimate filament spacing is inversely proportional to the threshold gain, and thus wider filaments are expected in low-threshold broad-area lasers.

Cascaded Raman lasing in packaged high quality As₂S₃ microspheres.

PubMed

Vanier, Francis; Peter, Yves-Alain; Rochette, Martin

2014-11-17

We report the observation of cascaded Raman lasing in high-Q As₂S₃microspheres. Cascaded stimulated Raman scattering emission is obtained up to the 5th order for a pump wavelength of 1557 nm and up to the 3rd order for a pump wavelength of 1880 nm. High-Q As₂S₃microspheres are used in a self-frequency locking laser setup without an external laser source. Threshold curves measurements are presented and follow the expected coupled mode theory behavior with a sub-mW threshold pump power.

Determining median urinary iodine concentration that indicates adequate iodine intake at population level.

PubMed Central

Delange, François; de Benoist, Bruno; Burgi, Hans

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Urinary iodine concentration is the prime indicator of nutritional iodine status and is used to evaluate population-based iodine supplementation. In 1994, WHO, UNICEF and ICCIDD recommended median urinary iodine concentrations for populations of 100- 200 micro g/l, assuming the 100 micro g/l threshold would limit concentrations <50 micro g/l to 100 micro g/l. The total population was 55 892, including 35 661 (64%) schoolchildren. Median urinary iodine concentrations were 111-540 (median 201) micro g/l for all populations, 100-199 micro g/l in 23 (48%) populations and >/=200 micro g/l in 25 (52%). The frequencies of values <50 micro g/l were 0-20.8 (mean 4.8%) overall and 7.2% and 2.5% in populations with medians of 100-199 micro g/l and >200 micro g/l, respectively. The frequency reached 20% only in two places where iodine had been supplemented for <2 years. CONCLUSION: The frequency of urinary iodine concentrations <50 micro g/l in populations with median urinary iodine concentrations >/=100 micro g/l has been overestimated. The threshold of 100 micro g/l does not need to be increased. In populations, median urinary iodine concentrations of 100-200 micro g/l indicate adequate iodine intake and optimal iodine nutrition. PMID:12219154

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

2017-08-10

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial for other species occupying landscapes with heterogeneous disturbance and climatic regimes.

Population impact of the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines compared with the 2013 ESH/ESC guidelines for hypertension management.

PubMed

Vaucher, Julien; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Waeber, Gérard; Vollenweider, Peter

2018-01-01

Background The 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines on hypertension management recommend the introduction of antihypertensive treatment for patients with new stage 1 hypertension thresholds (130-139/80-89 mm Hg) and with a cardiovascular disease or related condition. We compared the Swiss population and economic impact of antihypertensive treatment of the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines with the 2013 European guidelines. Methods Analyses were based on 4438 participants (aged 45-85 years; 2448 women) of the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus study recruited between 2014-2017. Participants eligible for antihypertensive treatment according to the 2017 ACC/AHA and 2013 European guidelines were sex and age standardised using the Swiss population for 2016. In addition, we estimated the population-wide annual costs of antihypertensive treatment. Results Individuals eligible for antihypertensive treatment were 40.3% (95% confidence interval 38.5-42.1) and 31.3% (29.7-32.9) according to the 2017 ACC/AHA and 2013 European guidelines, respectively. That difference would translate into approximately 250,000 additional individuals eligible for antihypertensive treatment, corresponding to an additional annual cost of 72.5 million CHF (63.0 million EUR). Conclusion The 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines on the management of hypertension substantially increase the number of individuals eligible for antihypertensive treatment compared to the 2013 European guidelines. While implementation of the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines is expected to lead to cost reduction by preventing cardiovascular diseases, that reduction might be mitigated by the costs incurred by antihypertensive treatments in a larger proportion of the population.

The health effects of hotter summers and heat waves in the population of the United Kingdom: a review of the evidence.

PubMed

Arbuthnott, Katherine G; Hajat, Shakoor

2017-12-05

It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed.

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world.

PubMed

Pike, David A

2014-01-01

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales.

PubMed

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C L; Harrison, Sandy P; Prentice, I Colin; Pereira, José M C

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales

PubMed Central

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C. L.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Prentice, I. Colin; Pereira, José M. C.

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning. PMID:24358108

So many migraines, so few subspecialists: analysis of the geographic location of United Council for Neurologic Subspecialties (UCNS) certified headache subspecialists compared to United States headache demographics.

PubMed

Mauser, Emily D; Rosen, Noah L

2014-09-01

To evaluate the geographic location of the United Council for Neurologic Subspecialties (UCNS)-certified headache subspecialists as compared with ratios of expected migraine and chronic migraine populations in the United States. The UCNS is a professional medical organization that accredits fellowship programs and certifies physicians who demonstrate competence in various neurologic subspecialties, including headache medicine. There are a limited number of UCNS-certified headache subspecialists currently practicing in the United States. All of the UCNS-certified headache subspecialists were geographically located and compared with demographic data about state populations obtained from the U.S. Census. The expected migraine and chronic migraine populations were calculated for each state based on recently published epidemiologic data. Ratios of UCNS-certified headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations were compared for each state. These data were then organized by U.S. Census region and division. As of the 2012 examination cycle, 416 UCNS-certified headache subspecialists are currently practicing in the United States. The states with the highest number of headache subspecialists include New York, California, Ohio, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Six states have zero headache subspecialists, eight states have one headache subspecialist, and five states have two headache subspecialists. As per the U.S. Census, the total U.S. population for ages 12 years and older is 259,908,563. The total expected migraine population (11.79% of the general population) for ages 12 years and older is 30,594,362. The total expected chronic migraine population (0.91% of the general population) for ages 12 years and older is 2,361,397. The states with the best ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations include the District of Columbia, New Hampshire, New York, and Nebraska. Besides states with zero headache subspecialists, the states with the worst ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations include Oregon, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Kansas. When organized by U.S. Census regions, the Northeast has the best ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations, while the West has the worst ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations. In terms of U.S. Census divisions, the Middle Atlantic has the best ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations, while the East South Central has the worst ratios of expected migraine and chronic migraine populations. There is a disproportionately small number of UCNS-certified headache subspecialists compared with the extensive expected migraine and chronic migraine populations in the United States. More UCNS-accredited fellowship programs and more UCNS-certified headache subspecialists are needed in order to ameliorate this disparity. © 2014 American Headache Society.

Social inequalities in health expectancy and the contribution of mortality and morbidity: the case of Irish Travellers.

PubMed

Abdalla, Safa; Kelleher, Cecily; Quirke, Brigid; Daly, Leslie

2013-12-01

The health expectancy of Irish Travellers, a disadvantaged indigenous minority group in Ireland has not been previously estimated. This study aimed to examine health expectancy inequalities between Irish Travellers and the general population. We used Sullivan's life table method to construct healthy life expectancy (HLE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE). The All-Ireland Traveller Health Study provided Irish Traveller population's mortality and health data. Vital registration, census and comparable national survey health data were used for the general population. We calculated the absolute and relative life expectancy, HLE and DFLE gaps between Irish Travellers and the general population and decomposed the HLE and DFLE gaps into mortality and morbidity contributions. Irish Travellers had consistently lower HLE and DFLE than the general population. The health expectancy gap displayed notable age and gender variations and was wider than the life expectancy gap. Mortality contributed more than morbidity to the health expectancy gap in men but not in women. This study illustrated the true extent of health inequalities experienced by an indigenous minority in Europe, clarifying the importance of reducing the burden of non-fatal disabling conditions for addressing these inequalities. The health expectancy measure used has application for other similar indigenous minorities elsewhere.

Orthorexia nervosa in the general population: a preliminary screening using a self-administered questionnaire (ORTO-15).

PubMed

Ramacciotti, C E; Perrone, P; Coli, E; Burgalassi, A; Conversano, C; Massimetti, G; Dell'Osso, L

2011-06-01

Orthorexia, from the Greek words orthos (straight, proper) and orexis (appetite), is a newly conceptualized disorder characterized by distorted eating habits and cognitions concerning supposedly healthy nutrition. In this article we present preliminary results of a wider research aimed to investigate the diffusion of Orthorexia in the general population and to highlight its characteristics and particularly the relationship with Eating Disorder and Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder. One-hundred and seventy seven adult subjects from the general population, were administered the ORTO-15 test, a selfadministered questionnaire specifically designed to assess orthorexic symptomatology; note that statistical analyses were repeated twice, referring to different diagnostic thresholds (40/35). Orthorexia had a 57.6% prevalence in our sample, using the 40-point threshold, with a female/male ratio 2:1; the figure was sensibly lower with the 35-point threshold (21%). The results of this study highlight the diffusion of Orthorexia which may constitute an important risk factor for mental and physical health, but also the opportunity of more specific diagnostic instruments, so to facilitate a thorough understanding of this disorder.

A Mathematical Model of Anthrax Transmission in Animal Populations.

PubMed

Saad-Roy, C M; van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2017-02-01

A general mathematical model of anthrax (caused by Bacillus anthracis) transmission is formulated that includes live animals, infected carcasses and spores in the environment. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is calculated, and existence of a unique endemic equilibrium is established for [Formula: see text] above the threshold value 1. Using data from the literature, elasticity indices for [Formula: see text] and type reproduction numbers are computed to quantify anthrax control measures. Including only herbivorous animals, anthrax is eradicated if [Formula: see text]. For these animals, oscillatory solutions arising from Hopf bifurcations are numerically shown to exist for certain parameter values with [Formula: see text] and to have periodicity as observed from anthrax data. Including carnivores and assuming no disease-related death, anthrax again goes extinct below the threshold. Local stability of the endemic equilibrium is established above the threshold; thus, periodic solutions are not possible for these populations. It is shown numerically that oscillations in spore growth may drive oscillations in animal populations; however, the total number of infected animals remains about the same as with constant spore growth.

Do ankle orthoses improve ankle proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal balance in older persons with peripheral neuropathy?

PubMed

Son, Jaebum; Ashton-Miller, James A; Richardson, James K

2010-05-01

To determine whether ankle orthoses that provide medial and lateral support, and have been found to decrease gait variability in older persons with peripheral neuropathy, decrease (improve) frontal plane ankle proprioceptive thresholds or increase unipedal stance time in that same population. Observational study in which unipedal stance time was determined with a stopwatch, and frontal plane ankle (inversion and eversion) proprioceptive thresholds were quantified during bipedal stance using a foot cradle system and a series of 100 rotational stimuli, in 11 older neuropathic subjects (8 men; age 72 +/- 7.1 yr) with and without ankle orthoses. The subjects demonstrated no change in combined frontal plane (inversion + eversion) proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal stance time with vs. without the orthoses (1.06 +/- 0.56 vs. 1.13 +/- 0.39 degrees, respectively; P = 0.955 and 6.1 +/- 6.5 vs. 6.2 +/- 5.4 secs, respectively; P = 0.922). Ankle orthoses that provide medial-lateral support do not seem to change ankle inversion/eversion proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal stance time in older persons with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Previously identified improvements in gait variability using orthoses in this population are therefore likely related to an orthotically induced stiffening of the ankle rather than a change in ankle afferent function.

Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

2017-02-01

The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

Free-Roaming Dog Population Estimation and Status of the Dog Population Management and Rabies Control Program in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Tenzin, Tenzin; Ahmed, Rubaiya; Debnath, Nitish C.; Ahmed, Garba; Yamage, Mat

2015-01-01

Beginning January 2012, a humane method of dog population management using a Catch-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (CNVR) program was implemented in Dhaka City, Bangladesh as part of the national rabies control program. To enable this program, the size and distribution of the free-roaming dog population needed to be estimated. We present the results of a dog population survey and a pilot assessment of the CNVR program coverage in Dhaka City. Free-roaming dog population surveys were undertaken in 18 wards of Dhaka City on consecutive days using mark-resight methods. Data was analyzed using Lincoln-Petersen index-Chapman correction methods. The CNVR program was assessed over the two years (2012–2013) whilst the coverage of the CNVR program was assessed by estimating the proportion of dogs that were ear-notched (processed dogs) via dog population surveys. The free-roaming dog population was estimated to be 1,242 (95 % CI: 1205–1278) in the 18 sampled wards and 18,585 dogs in Dhaka City (52 dogs/km2) with an estimated human-to-free-roaming dog ratio of 828:1. During the two year CNVR program, a total of 6,665 dogs (3,357 male and 3,308 female) were neutered and vaccinated against rabies in 29 of the 92 city wards. A pilot population survey indicated a mean CNVR coverage of 60.6% (range 19.2–79.3%) with only eight wards achieving > 70% coverage. Given that the coverage in many neighborhoods was below the WHO-recommended threshold level of 70% for rabies eradications and since the CNVR program takes considerable time to implement throughout the entire Dhaka City area, a mass dog vaccination program in the non-CNVR coverage area is recommended to create herd immunity. The findings from this study are expected to guide dog population management and the rabies control program in Dhaka City and elsewhere in Bangladesh. PMID:25978406

Free-roaming dog population estimation and status of the dog population management and rabies control program in Dhaka City, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Tenzin, Tenzin; Ahmed, Rubaiya; Debnath, Nitish C; Ahmed, Garba; Yamage, Mat

2015-05-01

Beginning January 2012, a humane method of dog population management using a Catch-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (CNVR) program was implemented in Dhaka City, Bangladesh as part of the national rabies control program. To enable this program, the size and distribution of the free-roaming dog population needed to be estimated. We present the results of a dog population survey and a pilot assessment of the CNVR program coverage in Dhaka City. Free-roaming dog population surveys were undertaken in 18 wards of Dhaka City on consecutive days using mark-resight methods. Data was analyzed using Lincoln-Petersen index-Chapman correction methods. The CNVR program was assessed over the two years (2012-2013) whilst the coverage of the CNVR program was assessed by estimating the proportion of dogs that were ear-notched (processed dogs) via dog population surveys. The free-roaming dog population was estimated to be 1,242 (95 % CI: 1205-1278) in the 18 sampled wards and 18,585 dogs in Dhaka City (52 dogs/km2) with an estimated human-to-free-roaming dog ratio of 828:1. During the two year CNVR program, a total of 6,665 dogs (3,357 male and 3,308 female) were neutered and vaccinated against rabies in 29 of the 92 city wards. A pilot population survey indicated a mean CNVR coverage of 60.6% (range 19.2-79.3%) with only eight wards achieving > 70% coverage. Given that the coverage in many neighborhoods was below the WHO-recommended threshold level of 70% for rabies eradications and since the CNVR program takes considerable time to implement throughout the entire Dhaka City area, a mass dog vaccination program in the non-CNVR coverage area is recommended to create herd immunity. The findings from this study are expected to guide dog population management and the rabies control program in Dhaka City and elsewhere in Bangladesh.

Conservation threats due to human-caused increases in fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems.

PubMed

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Hawbaker, Todd J; Stewart, Susan I

2009-06-01

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial analysis of relationships between people and fire may help identify areas where increases in fire frequency will threaten ecologically valuable areas. ©2009 Society for Conservation Biology.

An integrated approach to evaluating alternative risk prediction strategies: a case study comparing alternative approaches for preventing invasive fungal disease.

PubMed

Sadique, Z; Grieve, R; Harrison, D A; Jit, M; Allen, E; Rowan, K M

2013-12-01

This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million-£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

When does ecological sustainability ensure economic sustainability? An integrated analysis of thresholds in semi-arid western rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobourn, K. M.; Peckham, S. D.

2011-12-01

The vulnerability of agri-environmental systems to ecological threshold events depends on the combined influence of economic factors and natural drivers, such as climate and disturbance. This analysis builds an integrated ecologic-economic model to evaluate the behavioral response of agricultural producers to changing and uncertain natural conditions. The model explicitly reflects the effect of producer behavior on the likelihood of a threshold event that threatens the ecological and/or economic sustainability of the agri-environmental system. The foundation of the analysis is a threshold indicator that incorporates the population dynamics of a species that supports economic production and an episodic disturbance regime-in this case rangeland grass that is grazed by livestock and is subject to wildfire. This ecological indicator is integrated into an economic model in which producers choose grazing intensity given the state of the grass population and a set of economic parameters. We examine two model variants that characterize differing economic circumstances. The first characterizes the optimal grazing regime assuming that the system is managed by a single planner whose objective is to maximize the aggregate long-run returns of producers in the system. The second examines the case in which individual producers choose their own stocking rates in order to maximize their private economic benefit. The results from the first model variant illustrate the difference between an ecologic and an economic threshold. Failure to cross an ecological threshold does not necessarily ensure that the system remains economically viable: Economic sustainability, defined as the ability of the system to support optimal production into the infinite future, requires that the net growth rate of the supporting population exceeds the level required for ecological sustainability by an amount that depends on the market price of livestock and grazing efficiency. The results from the second model variant define the circumstances under which a system that is otherwise ecologically sustainable is driven over a threshold by the actions of economic agents. The difference between the two model solutions identifies bounds between which the viability of livestock production over the long-run is uncertain and depends upon the policy setting in which the agri-environmental system operates.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for osteoporosis or low bone density

PubMed Central

Edwards, D. L.; Saleh, A. A.; Greenspan, S. L.

2015-01-01

Summary We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for DXA-determined osteoporosis or low bone density. Commonly evaluated risk instruments showed high sensitivity approaching or exceeding 90 % at particular thresholds within various populations but low specificity at thresholds required for high sensitivity. Simpler instruments, such as OST, generally performed as well as or better than more complex instruments. Introduction The purpose of the study is to systematically review the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-determined osteoporosis or low bone density. Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis were performed. Multiple literature sources were searched, and data extracted and analyzed from included references. Results One hundred eight references met inclusion criteria. Studies assessed many instruments in 34 countries, most commonly the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST), the Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) instrument, the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA), the Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI), and body weight criteria. Meta-analyses of studies evaluating OST using a cutoff threshold of <1 to identify US postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at the femoral neck provided summary sensitivity and specificity estimates of 89 % (95%CI 82–96 %) and 41 % (95%CI 23–59 %), respectively. Meta-analyses of studies evaluating OST using a cutoff threshold of 3 to identify US men with osteoporosis at the femoral neck, total hip, or lumbar spine provided summary sensitivity and specificity estimates of 88 % (95%CI 79–97 %) and 55 % (95%CI 42–68 %), respectively. Frequently evaluated instruments each had thresholds and populations for which sensitivity for osteoporosis or low bone mass detection approached or exceeded 90 % but always with a trade-off of relatively low specificity. Conclusions Commonly evaluated clinical risk assessment instruments each showed high sensitivity approaching or exceeding 90 % for identifying individuals with DXA-determined osteoporosis or low BMD at certain thresholds in different populations but low specificity at thresholds required for high sensitivity. Simpler instruments, such as OST, generally performed as well as or better than more complex instruments. PMID:25644147

Correlated genetic effects on reproduction define a domestication syndrome in a forest tree

PubMed Central

Santos-del-Blanco, Luis; Alía, Ricardo; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Sampedro, Luis; Lario, Francisco; Climent, José

2015-01-01

Compared to natural selection, domestication implies a dramatic change in traits linked to fitness. A number of traits conferring fitness in the wild might be detrimental under domestication, and domesticated species typically differ from their ancestors in a set of traits known as the domestication syndrome. Specifically, trade-offs between growth and reproduction are well established across the tree of life. According to allocation theory, selection for growth rate is expected to indirectly alter life-history reproductive traits, diverting resources from reproduction to growth. Here we tested this hypothesis by examining the genetic change and correlated responses of reproductive traits as a result of selection for timber yield in the tree Pinus pinaster. Phenotypic selection was carried out in a natural population, and progenies from selected trees were compared with those of control trees in a common garden experiment. According to expectations, we detected a genetic change in important life-history traits due to selection. Specifically, threshold sizes for reproduction were much higher and reproductive investment relative to size significantly lower in the selected progenies just after a single artificial selection event. Our study helps to define the domestication syndrome in exploited forest trees and shows that changes affecting developmental pathways are relevant in domestication processes of long-lived plants. PMID:25926884

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy and multiple daily insulin injections in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a comparative overview and future horizons.

PubMed

Thabit, Hood; Hovorka, Roman

2016-01-01

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy is currently accepted as a treatment strategy for type 1 diabetes. Transition from multiple daily injection therapy (MDI; including basal-bolus regimens) to CSII is based on expectations of better metabolic control and fewer hypoglycaemic events. Evidence to date has not been always conclusive. Evidence for CSII and MDI in terms of glycaemic control, hypoglycaemia and psychosocial outcomes is reviewed in the adult and paediatric population with type 1 diabetes. Findings from studies on threshold-based insulin pump suspension and predictive low glucose management (PLGM) are outlined. Limitations of current CSII application and future technological developments are discussed. Glycaemic control and quality of life (QOL) may be improved by CSII compared to MDI depending on baseline HbA1c and hypoglycaemia rates. Future studies are expected to provide evidence on clinical and cost effectiveness in those who will benefit the most. Training, structured education and support are important to benefit from CSII. Novel technological approaches linking continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and CSII may help mitigate against frequent hypoglycaemia in those at risk. Development of glucose-responsive automated closed-loop insulin delivery systems may reduce the burden of disease management and improve outcomes in type 1 diabetes.

[FRAX® thresholds to identify people with high or low risk of osteoporotic fracture in Spanish female population].

PubMed

Azagra, Rafael; Roca, Genís; Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Casado, Enrique; Encabo, Gloria; Zwart, Marta; Aguyé, Amada; Díez-Pérez, Adolf

2015-01-06

To detect FRAX(®) threshold levels that identify groups of the population that are at high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in the Spanish female population using a cost-effective assessment. This is a cohort study. Eight hundred and sixteen women 40-90 years old selected from the FRIDEX cohort with densitometry and risk factors for fracture at baseline who received no treatment for osteoporosis during the 10 year follow-up period and were stratified into 3 groups/levels of fracture risk (low<10%, 10-20% intermediate and high>20%) according to the real fracture incidence. The thresholds of FRAX(®) baseline for major osteoporotic fracture were: low risk<5; intermediate ≥ 5 to <7.5 and high ≥ 7.5. The incidence of fracture with these values was: low risk (3.6%; 95% CI 2.2-5.9), intermediate risk (13.7%; 95% CI 7.1-24.2) and high risk (21.4%; 95% CI12.9-33.2). The most cost-effective option was to refer to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA-scan) for FRAX(®)≥ 5 (Intermediate and high risk) to reclassify by FRAX(®) with DXA-scan at high/low risk. These thresholds select 17.5% of women for DXA-scan and 10% for treatment. With these thresholds of FRAX(®), compared with the strategy of opportunistic case finding isolated risk factors, would improve the predictive parameters and reduce 82.5% the DXA-scan, 35.4% osteoporosis prescriptions and 28.7% cost to detect the same number of women who suffer fractures. The use of FRAX ® thresholds identified as high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in this calibration (FRIDEX model) improve predictive parameters in Spanish women and in a more cost-effective than the traditional model based on the T-score ≤ -2.5 of DXA scan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

PubMed

Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

2016-01-01

RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal mutagenesis.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

Demography of soybean aphid (Homoptera: Aphididae) at summer temperatures.

PubMed

McCornack, B P; Ragsdale, D W; Venette, R C

2004-06-01

Soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, is now widely established in soybean, Glycine max L., production areas of the northern United States and southern Canada and is becoming an important economic pest. Temperature effect on soybean aphid fecundity and survivorship is not well understood. We determined the optimal temperature for soybean aphid growth and reproduction on soybean under controlled conditions. We constructed life tables for soybean aphid at 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C with a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h. Population growth rates were greatest at 25 degrees C. As temperature increased, net fecundity, gross fecundity, generation time, and life expectancy decreased. The prereproductive period did not differ between 20 and 30 degrees C; however, at 30 degrees C aphids required more degree-days (base 8.6 degrees C) to develop. Nymphs exposed to 35 degrees C did not complete development, and all individuals died within 11 d. Reproductive periods were significantly different at all temperatures, with aphids reproducing longer and producing more progeny at 20 and 25 degrees C than at 30 or 35 degrees C. Using a modification of the nonlinear Logan model, we estimated upper and optimal developmental thresholds to be 34.9 and 27.8 degrees C, respectively. At 25 degrees C, aphid populations doubled in 1.5 d; at 20 and 30 degrees C, populations doubled in 1.9 d.

Long-Term Acclimation to Different Thermal Regimes Affects Molecular Responses to Heat Stress in a Freshwater Clam Corbicula Fluminea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falfushynska, Halina I.; Phan, Tuan; Sokolova, Inna M.

2016-12-01

Global climate change (GCC) can negatively affect freshwater ecosystems. However, the degree to which freshwater populations can acclimate to long-term warming and the underlying molecular mechanisms are not yet fully understood. We used the cooling water discharge (CWD) area of a power plant as a model for long-term warming. Survival and molecular stress responses (expression of molecular chaperones, antioxidants, bioenergetic and protein synthesis biomarkers) to experimental warming (20-41 °C, +1.5 °C per day) were assessed in invasive clams Corbicula fluminea from two pristine populations and a CWD population. CWD clams had considerably higher (by ~8-12 °C) lethal temperature thresholds than clams from the pristine areas. High thermal tolerance of CWD clams was associated with overexpression of heat shock proteins HSP70, HSP90 and HSP60 and activation of protein synthesis at 38 °C. Heat shock response was prioritized over the oxidative stress response resulting in accumulation of oxidative lesions and ubiquitinated proteins during heat stress in CWD clams. Future studies should determine whether the increase in thermal tolerance in CWD clams are due to genetic adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity. Overall, our findings indicate that C. fluminea has potential to survive and increase its invasive range during warming such as expected during GCC.

Survey of abdominal obesities in an adult urban population of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

PubMed Central

Kasiam Lasi On’kin, JB; Longo-Mbenza, B; Okwe, A Nge; Kabangu, N Kangola

2007-01-01

Summary Background The prevalence of overweight/obesity, which is an important cardiovascular risk factor, is rapidly increasing worldwide. Abdominal obesity, a fundamental component of the metabolic syndrome, is not defined by appropriate cutoff points for sub-Saharan Africa. Objective To provide baseline and reference data on the anthropometry/body composition and the prevalence rates of obesity types and levels in the adult urban population of Kinshasa, DRC, Central Africa. Methods During this cross-sectional study carried out within a random sample of adults in Kinshasa town, body mass index, waist circumference and fatty mass were measured using standard methods. Their reference and local thresholds (cut-off points) were compared with those of WHO, NCEP and IFD to define the types and levels of obesity in the population. Results From this sample of 11 511 subjects (5 676 men and 5 835 women), the men presented with similar body mass index and fatty mass values to those of the women, but higher waist measurements. The international thresholds overestimated the prevalence of denutrition, but underscored that of general and abdominal obesity. The two types of obesity were more prevalent among women than men when using both international and local thresholds. Body mass index was negatively associated with age; but abdominal obesity was more frequent before 20 years of age and between 40 and 60 years old. Local thresholds of body mass index (≥ 23, ≥ 27 and ≥ 30 kg/m2) and waist measurement (≥ 80, ≥ 90 and ≥ 94 cm) defined epidemic rates of overweight/general obesity (52%) and abdominal obesity (40.9%). The threshold of waist circumference ≥ 94 cm (90th percentile) corresponding to the threshold of the body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2 (90th percentile) was proposed as the specific threshold of definition of the metabolic syndrome, without reference to gender, for the cities of sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusion Further studies are required to define the optimal threshold of waist circumference in rural settings. The present local cut-off points of body mass index and waist circumference could be appropriate for the identification of Africans at risk of obesity-related disorders, and indicate the need to implement interventions to reverse increasing levels of obesity. PMID:17985031

The Neural Substrate for Binaural Masking Level Differences in the Auditory Cortex

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Heather J.; Krumbholz, Katrin; Palmer, Alan R.

2015-01-01

The binaural masking level difference (BMLD) is a phenomenon whereby a signal that is identical at each ear (S0), masked by a noise that is identical at each ear (N0), can be made 12–15 dB more detectable by inverting the waveform of either the tone or noise at one ear (Sπ, Nπ). Single-cell responses to BMLD stimuli were measured in the primary auditory cortex of urethane-anesthetized guinea pigs. Firing rate was measured as a function of signal level of a 500 Hz pure tone masked by low-passed white noise. Responses were similar to those reported in the inferior colliculus. At low signal levels, the response was dominated by the masker. At higher signal levels, firing rate either increased or decreased. Detection thresholds for each neuron were determined using signal detection theory. Few neurons yielded measurable detection thresholds for all stimulus conditions, with a wide range in thresholds. However, across the entire population, the lowest thresholds were consistent with human psychophysical BMLDs. As in the inferior colliculus, the shape of the firing-rate versus signal-level functions depended on the neurons' selectivity for interaural time difference. Our results suggest that, in cortex, BMLD signals are detected from increases or decreases in the firing rate, consistent with predictions of cross-correlation models of binaural processing and that the psychophysical detection threshold is based on the lowest neural thresholds across the population. PMID:25568115

Bayesian inference and assessment for rare-event bycatch in marine fisheries: a drift gillnet fishery case study.

PubMed

Martin, Summer L; Stohs, Stephen M; Moore, Jeffrey E

2015-03-01

Fisheries bycatch is a global threat to marine megafauna. Environmental laws require bycatch assessment for protected species, but this is difficult when bycatch is rare. Low bycatch rates, combined with low observer coverage, may lead to biased, imprecise estimates when using standard ratio estimators. Bayesian model-based approaches incorporate uncertainty, produce less volatile estimates, and enable probabilistic evaluation of estimates relative to management thresholds. Here, we demonstrate a pragmatic decision-making process that uses Bayesian model-based inferences to estimate the probability of exceeding management thresholds for bycatch in fisheries with < 100% observer coverage. Using the California drift gillnet fishery as a case study, we (1) model rates of rare-event bycatch and mortality using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods and 20 years of observer data; (2) predict unobserved counts of bycatch and mortality; (3) infer expected annual mortality; (4) determine probabilities of mortality exceeding regulatory thresholds; and (5) classify the fishery as having low, medium, or high bycatch impact using those probabilities. We focused on leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Candidate models included Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson likelihood, fishing effort, and a bycatch rate that varied with area, time, or regulatory regime. Regulatory regime had the strongest effect on leatherback bycatch, with the highest levels occurring prior to a regulatory change. Area had the strongest effect on humpback bycatch. Cumulative bycatch estimates for the 20-year period were 104-242 leatherbacks (52-153 deaths) and 6-50 humpbacks (0-21 deaths). The probability of exceeding a regulatory threshold under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (Potential Biological Removal, PBR) of 0.113 humpback deaths was 0.58, warranting a "medium bycatch impact" classification of the fishery. No PBR thresholds exist for leatherbacks, but the probability of exceeding an anticipated level of two deaths per year, stated as part of a U.S. Endangered Species Act assessment process, was 0.0007. The approach demonstrated here would allow managers to objectively and probabilistically classify fisheries with respect to bycatch impacts on species that have population-relevant mortality reference points, and declare with a stipulated level of certainty that bycatch did or did not exceed estimated upper bounds.

Potential Implications of Recent and Proposed Changes in the Regulatory Oversight of Solid Organ Transplantation in the United States

PubMed Central

Kasiske, BL; Salkowski, N; Wey, A; Israni, AK; Snyder, JJ

2016-01-01

Every 6 months, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) publishes evaluations of every solid organ transplant program in the US, including evaluations of 1-year patient and graft survival. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) Membership and Professional Standards Committee (MPSC) use SRTR’s 1-year evaluations for regulatory review of transplant programs. Concern has been growing that the regulatory scrutiny of transplant programs with lower than expected outcomes is harmful, causing programs to undertake fewer high-risk transplants and leading to unnecessary organ discards. As a result, CMS raised its threshold for a “Condition-Level Deficiency” designation of observed relative to expected 1-year graft or patient survival from 1.50 to 1.85. Exceeding this threshold in the current SRTR outcomes report and in one of the four previous reports leads to scrutiny that may result in loss of Medicare funding. For its part, OPTN is reviewing a proposal from the MPSC to also change its performance criteria thresholds for program review, to review programs with “substantive clinical differences.” We review the details and implications of these changes in transplant program oversight. PMID:27401597

Relative Contribution of Odour Intensity and Valence to Moral Decisions.

PubMed

Cecchetto, Cinzia; Rumiati, Raffaella Ida; Parma, Valentina

2017-01-01

Meta-analytic evidence showed that the chemical senses affect moral decisions. However, how odours impact on morality is currently unclear. Through a set of three studies, we assess whether and how odour intensity biases moral choices (Study 1a), its psychophysiological responses (Study 1b), as well as the behavioural and psychophysiological effects of odour valence on moral choices (Study 2). Study 1a suggests that the presence of an odour plays a role in shaping moral choice. Study 1b reveals that of two iso-pleasant versions of the same neutral odour, only the one presented sub-threshold (vs. supra-threshold) favours deontological moral choices, those based on the principle of not harming others even when such harm provides benefits. As expected, this odour intensity effect is tracked by skin conductance responses, whereas no difference in cardiac activity - proxy for the valence dimension - is revealed. Study 2 suggests that the same neutral odour presented sub-threshold increases deontological choices even when compared to iso-intense ambiguous odour, perceived as pleasant or unpleasant by half of the participants, respectively. Skin conductance responses, as expected, track odour pleasantness, but cardiac activity fails to do so. Results are discussed in the context of mechanisms alternative to disgust induction underlying moral choices.

Prediction of pKa Values for Neutral and Basic Drugs based on Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Methods.

PubMed

Li, Mengshan; Zhang, Huaijing; Chen, Bingsheng; Wu, Yan; Guan, Lixin

2018-03-05

The pKa value of drugs is an important parameter in drug design and pharmacology. In this paper, an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was proposed based on the population entropy diversity. In the improved algorithm, when the population entropy was higher than the set maximum threshold, the convergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was lower than the set minimum threshold the divergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was between the maximum and minimum threshold, the self-adaptive adjustment strategy was maintained. The improved PSO algorithm was applied in the training of radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF ANN) model and the selection of molecular descriptors. A quantitative structure-activity relationship model based on RBF ANN trained by the improved PSO algorithm was proposed to predict the pKa values of 74 kinds of neutral and basic drugs and then validated by another database containing 20 molecules. The validation results showed that the model had a good prediction performance. The absolute average relative error, root mean square error, and squared correlation coefficient were 0.3105, 0.0411, and 0.9685, respectively. The model can be used as a reference for exploring other quantitative structure-activity relationships.

Relationship Between Crop Losses and Initial Population Densities of Meloidogyne arenaria in Winter-Grown Oriental Melon in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, D.G.; Ferris, H.

2002-01-01

To determine the economic threshold level, oriental melon (Cucumis melo L. cv. Geumssaragi-euncheon) grafted on Shintozoa (Cucurbita maxima × Cu. moschata) was planted in plots (2 × 3 m) under a plastic film in February with a range of initial population densities (Pi) of Meloidogyne arenaria. The relationships of early, late, and total yield to Pi measured in September and January were adequately described by both linear regression and the Seinhorst damage model. Initial nematode densities in September in excess of 14 second-stage juveniles (J2)/100 cm³ soil caused losses in total yields that exceeded the economic threshold and indicate the need for fosthiazate nematicide treatment at current costs. Differences in yield-loss relationships to Pi between early- and late-season harvests enhance the resolution of the management decision and suggest approaches for optimizing returns. Determination of population levels for advisory purposes can be based on assay samples taken several months before planting, which allows time for implementation of management procedures. We introduce (i) an amendment of the economic threshold definition to reflect efficacy of the nematode management procedure under consideration, and (ii) the concept of profit limit as the nematode population at which net returns from the system will become negative. PMID:19265907

Regression Discontinuity for Causal Effect Estimation in Epidemiology.

PubMed

Oldenburg, Catherine E; Moscoe, Ellen; Bärnighausen, Till

Regression discontinuity analyses can generate estimates of the causal effects of an exposure when a continuously measured variable is used to assign the exposure to individuals based on a threshold rule. Individuals just above the threshold are expected to be similar in their distribution of measured and unmeasured baseline covariates to individuals just below the threshold, resulting in exchangeability. At the threshold exchangeability is guaranteed if there is random variation in the continuous assignment variable, e.g., due to random measurement error. Under exchangeability, causal effects can be identified at the threshold. The regression discontinuity intention-to-treat (RD-ITT) effect on an outcome can be estimated as the difference in the outcome between individuals just above (or below) versus just below (or above) the threshold. This effect is analogous to the ITT effect in a randomized controlled trial. Instrumental variable methods can be used to estimate the effect of exposure itself utilizing the threshold as the instrument. We review the recent epidemiologic literature reporting regression discontinuity studies and find that while regression discontinuity designs are beginning to be utilized in a variety of applications in epidemiology, they are still relatively rare, and analytic and reporting practices vary. Regression discontinuity has the potential to greatly contribute to the evidence base in epidemiology, in particular on the real-life and long-term effects and side-effects of medical treatments that are provided based on threshold rules - such as treatments for low birth weight, hypertension or diabetes.

Identifying insects with incomplete DNA barcode libraries, African fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) as a test case.

PubMed

Virgilio, Massimiliano; Jordaens, Kurt; Breman, Floris C; Backeljau, Thierry; De Meyer, Marc

2012-01-01

We propose a general working strategy to deal with incomplete reference libraries in the DNA barcoding identification of species. Considering that (1) queries with a large genetic distance with their best DNA barcode match are more likely to be misidentified and (2) imposing a distance threshold profitably reduces identification errors, we modelled relationships between identification performances and distance thresholds in four DNA barcode libraries of Diptera (n = 4270), Lepidoptera (n = 7577), Hymenoptera (n = 2067) and Tephritidae (n = 602 DNA barcodes). In all cases, more restrictive distance thresholds produced a gradual increase in the proportion of true negatives, a gradual decrease of false positives and more abrupt variations in the proportions of true positives and false negatives. More restrictive distance thresholds improved precision, yet negatively affected accuracy due to the higher proportions of queries discarded (viz. having a distance query-best match above the threshold). Using a simple linear regression we calculated an ad hoc distance threshold for the tephritid library producing an estimated relative identification error <0.05. According to the expectations, when we used this threshold for the identification of 188 independently collected tephritids, less than 5% of queries with a distance query-best match below the threshold were misidentified. Ad hoc thresholds can be calculated for each particular reference library of DNA barcodes and should be used as cut-off mark defining whether we can proceed identifying the query with a known estimated error probability (e.g. 5%) or whether we should discard the query and consider alternative/complementary identification methods.

Identifying Insects with Incomplete DNA Barcode Libraries, African Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) as a Test Case

PubMed Central

Virgilio, Massimiliano; Jordaens, Kurt; Breman, Floris C.; Backeljau, Thierry; De Meyer, Marc

2012-01-01

We propose a general working strategy to deal with incomplete reference libraries in the DNA barcoding identification of species. Considering that (1) queries with a large genetic distance with their best DNA barcode match are more likely to be misidentified and (2) imposing a distance threshold profitably reduces identification errors, we modelled relationships between identification performances and distance thresholds in four DNA barcode libraries of Diptera (n = 4270), Lepidoptera (n = 7577), Hymenoptera (n = 2067) and Tephritidae (n = 602 DNA barcodes). In all cases, more restrictive distance thresholds produced a gradual increase in the proportion of true negatives, a gradual decrease of false positives and more abrupt variations in the proportions of true positives and false negatives. More restrictive distance thresholds improved precision, yet negatively affected accuracy due to the higher proportions of queries discarded (viz. having a distance query-best match above the threshold). Using a simple linear regression we calculated an ad hoc distance threshold for the tephritid library producing an estimated relative identification error <0.05. According to the expectations, when we used this threshold for the identification of 188 independently collected tephritids, less than 5% of queries with a distance query-best match below the threshold were misidentified. Ad hoc thresholds can be calculated for each particular reference library of DNA barcodes and should be used as cut-off mark defining whether we can proceed identifying the query with a known estimated error probability (e.g. 5%) or whether we should discard the query and consider alternative/complementary identification methods. PMID:22359600

Antinociceptive effects of nalbuphine hydrochloride in Hispaniolan Amazon parrots (Amazona ventralis).

PubMed

Sanchez-Migallon Guzman, David; KuKanich, Butch; Keuler, Nicholas S; Klauer, Julia M; Paul-Murphy, Joanne R

2011-06-01

To evaluate the antinociceptive effects and duration of action of nalbuphine HCl administered IM on thermal thresholds in Hispaniolan Amazon parrots (Amazona ventralis). 14 healthy adult Hispaniolan Amazon parrots of unknown sex. 3 doses of nalbuphine (12.5, 25, and 50 mg/kg, IM) and saline (0.9% NaCl) solution (control treatment) were evaluated in a blinded complete crossover experimental design by use of foot withdrawal threshold to a noxious thermal stimulus. Baseline data on thermal threshold were generated 1 hour before administration of nalbuphine or saline solution; thermal threshold measurements were obtained 0.5, 1.5, 3, and 6 hours after administration. Nalbuphine administered IM at 12.5 mg/kg significantly increased the thermal threshold (mean change, 2.4°C), compared with results for the control treatment, and significantly changed thermal threshold for up to 3 hours, compared with baseline results (mean change, 2.6° to 3.8°C). Higher doses of nalbuphine did not significantly change thermal thresholds, compared with results for the control treatment, but had a significant effect, compared with baseline results, for up to 3 and 1.5 hours after administration, respectively. Nalbuphine administered IM at 12.5 mg/kg significantly increased the foot withdrawal threshold to a thermal noxious stimulus in Hispaniolan Amazon parrots. Higher doses of nalbuphine did not result in significantly increased thermal thresholds or a longer duration of action and would be expected to result in less analgesic effect than lower doses. Further studies are needed to fully evaluate the analgesic effects of nalbuphine in psittacine species.

Net reclassification index at event rate: properties and relationships.

PubMed

Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; D'Agostino, Ralph B

2017-12-10

The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an attractively simple summary measure quantifying improvement in performance because of addition of new risk marker(s) to a prediction model. Originally proposed for settings with well-established classification thresholds, it quickly extended into applications with no thresholds in common use. Here we aim to explore properties of the NRI at event rate. We express this NRI as a difference in performance measures for the new versus old model and show that the quantity underlying this difference is related to several global as well as decision analytic measures of model performance. It maximizes the relative utility (standardized net benefit) across all classification thresholds and can be viewed as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the distributions of risk among events and non-events. It can be expressed as a special case of the continuous NRI, measuring reclassification from the 'null' model with no predictors. It is also a criterion based on the value of information and quantifies the reduction in expected regret for a given regret function, casting the NRI at event rate as a measure of incremental reduction in expected regret. More generally, we find it informative to present plots of standardized net benefit/relative utility for the new versus old model across the domain of classification thresholds. Then, these plots can be summarized with their maximum values, and the increment in model performance can be described by the NRI at event rate. We provide theoretical examples and a clinical application on the evaluation of prognostic biomarkers for atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Test-retest agreement and reliability of quantitative sensory testing 1 year after breast cancer surgery.

PubMed

Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Kehlet, Henrik; Aasvang, Eske Kvanner

2015-05-01

Quantitative sensory testing (QST) is used to assess sensory dysfunction and nerve damage by examining psychophysical responses to controlled, graded stimuli such as mechanical and thermal detection and pain thresholds. In the breast cancer population, 4 studies have used QST to examine persistent pain after breast cancer treatment, suggesting neuropathic pain being a prominent pain mechanism. However, the agreement and reliability of QST has not been described in the postsurgical breast cancer population, hindering exact interpretation of QST studies in this population. The aim of the present study was to assess test-retest properties of QST after breast cancer surgery. A total of 32 patients recruited from a larger ongoing prospective trial were examined with QST 12 months after breast cancer surgery and reexamined a week later. A standardized QST protocol was used, including sensory mapping for mechanical, warmth and cold areas of sensory dysfunction, mechanical thresholds using monofilaments and pin-prick, thermal thresholds including warmth and cold detection thresholds and heat pain threshold, with bilateral examination. Agreement and reliability were assessed by Bland-Altman plots, descriptive statistics, coefficients of variance, and intraclass correlation. Bland-Altman plots showed high variation on the surgical side. Intraclass coefficients ranged from 0.356 to 0.847 (moderate to substantial reliability). Between-patient variation was generally higher (0.9 to 14.5 SD) than within-patient variation (0.23 to 3.55 SD). There were no significant differences between pain and pain-free patients. The individual test-retest variability was higher on the operated side compared with the nonoperated side. The QST protocol reliability allows for group-to-group comparison of sensory function, but less so for individual follow-up after breast cancer surgery.

Global gray-level thresholding based on object size.

PubMed

Ranefall, Petter; Wählby, Carolina

2016-04-01

In this article, we propose a fast and robust global gray-level thresholding method based on object size, where the selection of threshold level is based on recall and maximum precision with regard to objects within a given size interval. The method relies on the component tree representation, which can be computed in quasi-linear time. Feature-based segmentation is especially suitable for biomedical microscopy applications where objects often vary in number, but have limited variation in size. We show that for real images of cell nuclei and synthetic data sets mimicking fluorescent spots the proposed method is more robust than all standard global thresholding methods available for microscopy applications in ImageJ and CellProfiler. The proposed method, provided as ImageJ and CellProfiler plugins, is simple to use and the only required input is an interval of the expected object sizes. © 2016 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry. © 2016 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Observation of a cross-section enhancement near mass threshold in e + e - → Λ Λ ¯

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.

Tmore » he process e + e - → Λ Λ ¯ is studied using data samples at √s = 2.2324, 2.400, 2.800 and 3.080 GeV collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII collider. he Born cross section is measured at √s=2.2324 GeV, which is 1.0 MeV above the Λ Λ ¯ mass threshold, to be 305±$$45_{-36}^{+66}$$ pb, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. he substantial cross section near threshold is significantly larger than that expected from theory, which predicts the cross section to vanish at threshold. he Born cross sections at √s=2.400, 2.800 and 3.080 GeV are measured and found to be consistent with previous experimental results, but with improved precision. Finally, the corresponding effective electromagnetic form factors of Λ are deduced.« less

Observation of a cross-section enhancement near mass threshold in e + e - → Λ Λ ¯

DOE PAGES

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ahmed, S.; ...

2018-02-28

Tmore » he process e + e - → Λ Λ ¯ is studied using data samples at √s = 2.2324, 2.400, 2.800 and 3.080 GeV collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII collider. he Born cross section is measured at √s=2.2324 GeV, which is 1.0 MeV above the Λ Λ ¯ mass threshold, to be 305±$$45_{-36}^{+66}$$ pb, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. he substantial cross section near threshold is significantly larger than that expected from theory, which predicts the cross section to vanish at threshold. he Born cross sections at √s=2.400, 2.800 and 3.080 GeV are measured and found to be consistent with previous experimental results, but with improved precision. Finally, the corresponding effective electromagnetic form factors of Λ are deduced.« less

Measurement of {pi}{sup -}p{yields}{eta}n from threshold to p{sub {pi}}{sub {sup -}}=747 MeV/c

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prakhov, S.; Nefkens, B.M.K.; Clajus, M.

2005-07-01

The differential cross section for {eta} production in reaction {pi}{sup -}p{yields}{eta}n has been measured over the full angular range at seven incident {pi}{sup -} beam momenta from threshold to p{sub {pi}}{sub {sup -}}=747 MeV/c using the Crystal Ball multiphoton spectrometer. The angular distributions are S wave dominated. At 10 MeV/c above threshold, a small D-wave contribution appears that interferes with the main S wave. The total {eta} production cross section {sigma}{sup tot} is obtained by integration of d{sigma}/d{omega}. Starting at threshold, {sigma}{sup tot} rises rapidly, as expected for S-wave-dominated production. The features of the {pi}{sup -}p{yields}{eta}n cross section are strikinglymore » similar to those of the SU(3) flavor-related process K{sup -}p{yields}{eta}{lambda}. Comparison of the {pi}{sup -}p{yields}{eta}n reaction is made with {eta} photoproduction.« less

Use of Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) with High Throughput Exposure Predictions as a Risk-Based Screening Approach to Prioritize More Than Seven Thousand Chemicals (ASCCT)

EPA Science Inventory

Here, we present results of an approach for risk-based prioritization using the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) combined with high-throughput exposure (HTE) modelling. We started with 7968 chemicals with calculated population median oral daily intakes characterized by an...

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

A New Load Residual Threshold Definition for the Evaluation of Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.; Volden, T.

2016-01-01

A new definition of a threshold for the detection of load residual outliers of wind tunnel strain-gage balance data was developed. The new threshold is defined as the product between the inverse of the absolute value of the primary gage sensitivity and an empirical limit of the electrical outputs of a strain{gage. The empirical limit of the outputs is either 2.5 microV/V for balance calibration or check load residuals. A reduced limit of 0.5 microV/V is recommended for the evaluation of differences between repeat load points because, by design, the calculation of these differences removes errors in the residuals that are associated with the regression analysis of the data itself. The definition of the new threshold and different methods for the determination of the primary gage sensitivity are discussed. In addition, calibration data of a six-component force balance and a five-component semi-span balance are used to illustrate the application of the proposed new threshold definition to different types of strain{gage balances. During the discussion of the force balance example it is also explained how the estimated maximum expected output of a balance gage can be used to better understand results of the application of the new threshold definition.

Improving the quality of pressure ulcer care with prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Padula, William V; Mishra, Manish K; Makic, Mary Beth F; Sullivan, Patrick W

2011-04-01

In October 2008, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services discontinued reimbursement for hospital-acquired pressure ulcers (HAPUs), thus placing stress on hospitals to prevent incidence of this costly condition. To evaluate whether prevention methods are cost-effective compared with standard care in the management of HAPUs. A semi-Markov model simulated the admission of patients to an acute care hospital from the time of admission through 1 year using the societal perspective. The model simulated health states that could potentially lead to an HAPU through either the practice of "prevention" or "standard care." Univariate sensitivity analyses, threshold analyses, and Bayesian multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations were conducted. Cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained for the prevention of HAPUs. Prevention was cost saving and resulted in greater expected effectiveness compared with the standard care approach per hospitalization. The expected cost of prevention was $7276.35, and the expected effectiveness was 11.241 QALYs. The expected cost for standard care was $10,053.95, and the expected effectiveness was 9.342 QALYs. The multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that prevention resulted in cost savings in 99.99% of the simulations. The threshold cost of prevention was $821.53 per day per person, whereas the cost of prevention was estimated to be $54.66 per day per person. This study suggests that it is more cost effective to pay for prevention of HAPUs compared with standard care. Continuous preventive care of HAPUs in acutely ill patients could potentially reduce incidence and prevalence, as well as lead to lower expenditures.

Comminution of Aeolian Materials on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, John R.

1998-01-01

The research task had a two-year performance period for the investigation of aeolian processes on Mars. Specifically, we were investigating the comminution of sand grains as individual particles, and as bulk populations. Laboratory experiment were completed for the individual particles, and results led to new theory for aeolian transport that is broadly applicable to all planetary surfaces. The theory was presented at the LPSC and the GSA in 1998 and 1997 respectively. Essentially, the new theory postulates that aeolian transport is dependent upon two motion thresholds- an aerodynamic threshold and a bed-dilatancy threshold.

Differences in taste detection thresholds between normal-weight and obese young adults.

PubMed

Park, Dong Choon; Yeo, Joon Hyung; Ryu, In Yong; Kim, Sang Hoon; Jung, Junyang; Yeo, Seung Geun

2015-05-01

Compared with normal-weight individuals, obese young adults exhibited a significantly higher taste threshold for salty taste. Smoking also affected taste functions in this population. The aim of this study was to investigate the differences in taste detection thresholds between normal-weight and obese young adults. Taste threshold was measured using electrogustometry (EGM) and chemically with sucrose, NaCl, citric acid, and quinine hydrochloride in 41 volunteers in their twenties, 23 with body mass index (BMI) <23 kg/m(2) (normal-weight group) and 18 with BMI >25 kg/m(2) (obese group). BMI was significantly higher in the obese than in the normal-weight group (p < 0.05). The obese group exhibited significantly higher EGM thresholds than the normal-weight group on the right (p < 0.05) and left (p < 0.05) posterior tongue. In chemical taste tests, the obese group had higher thresholds for sweet, salty, sour, and bitter tastes than the normal-weight group, although the difference in threshold was significant only for salty taste (p < 0.05). Smoking had an impact on taste threshold, with smokers having higher thresholds than non-smokers, with significantly higher EGM thresholds on the right anterior and posterior and the left anterior tongue (p < 0.05 each).

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1 2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1,2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Treesearch

David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

2015-01-01

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

Variation in and responses to brood pheromone of the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.).

PubMed

Metz, Bradley N; Pankiw, Tanya; Tichy, Shane E; Aronstein, Katherine A; Crewe, Robin M

2010-04-01

The 10 fatty acid ester components of brood pheromone were extracted from larvae of different populations of USA and South African honey bees and subjected to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry quantitative analysis. Extractable amounts of brood pheromone were not significantly different by larval population; however, differences in the proportions of components enabled us to classify larval population of 77% of samples correctly by discriminant analysis. Honeybee releaser and primer pheromone responses to USA, Africanized and-European pheromone blends were tested. Texas-Africanized and Georgia-European colonies responded with a significantly greater ratio of returning pollen foragers when treated with a blend from the same population than from a different population. There was a significant interaction of pheromone blend by adult population source among Georgia-European bees for modulation of sucrose response threshold, a primer response. Brood pheromone blend variation interacted with population for pollen foraging response of colonies, suggesting a self recognition cue for this pheromone releaser behavior. An interaction of pheromone blend and population for priming sucrose response thresholds among workers within the first week of adult life suggested a more complex interplay of genotype, ontogeny, and pheromone blend.

Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

PubMed

Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

2018-04-01

Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

Life Expectancy in Police Officers: A Comparison with the U.S. General Population

PubMed Central

Violanti, John M.; Hartley, Tara A.; Gu, Ja K.; Fekedulegn, Desta; Andrew, Michael E.; Burchfiel, Cecil M.

2016-01-01

Previous epidemiological research indicates that police officers have an elevated risk of death relative to the general population overall and for several specific causes. Despite the increased risk for mortality found in previous research, controversy still exists over the life expectancy of police officers. The goal of the present study was to compare life expectancy of male police officers from Buffalo New York with the U.S. general male population utilizing an abridged life table method. On average, the life expectancy of Buffalo police officers in our sample was significantly lower than the U.S. population (mean difference in life expectancy =21.9 years; 95% CI: 14.5-29.3; p<0.0001). Life expectancy of police officers was shorter and differences were more pronounced in younger age categories. Additionally, police officers had a significantly higher average probability of death than did males in the general population (mean difference= 0.40; 95% CI: 0.26,-0.54; p<0.0001). The years of potential life lost (YPLL) for police officers was 21 times larger than that of the general population (Buffalo male officers vs. U.S. males = 21.7, 95% CI: 5.8-37.7). Possible reasons for shorter life expectancy among police are discussed, including stress, shift work, obesity, and hazardous environmental work exposures. PMID:24707585

Leading Causes of Death Contributing to Decrease in Life Expectancy Gap Between Black and White Populations: United States, 1999-2013.

PubMed

Kochanek, Kenneth D; Anderson, Robert N; Arias, Elizabeth

2015-11-01

Life expectancy at birth has increased steadily since 1900 to a record 78.8 years in 2013. But differences in life expectancy between the white and black populations still exist, despite a decrease in the life expectancy gap from 5.9 years in 1999 to 3.6 years in 2013. Differences in the change over time in the leading causes of death for the black and white populations have contributed to this decrease in the gap in life expectancy. Between 1999 and 2013, the decrease in the life expectancy gap between the black and white populations was mostly due to greater decreases in mortality from heart disease, cancer, HIV disease, unintentional injuries, and perinatal conditions among the black population. Similarly, the decrease in the gap between black and white male life expectancy was due to greater decreases in death rates for HIV disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, heart disease, and perinatal conditions in black males. For black females, greater decreases in diabetes death rates, combined with decreased rates for heart disease and HIV disease, were the major causes contributing to the decrease in the life expectancy gap with white females. The decrease in the gap in life expectancy between the white and black populations would have been larger than 3.6 years if not for increases in death rates for the black population for aortic aneurysm, Alzheimer’s disease, and maternal conditions. For black males, the causes that showed increases in death rates over white males were hypertension, aortic aneurysm, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and kidney disease, while the causes that showed increases in death rates for black females were Alzheimer’s disease, maternal conditions, and atherosclerosis. This NCHS Data Brief is the second in a series of data briefs that explore the causes of death contributing to differences in life expectancy between detailed ethnic and racial populations in the United States. The first data brief focused on the racial differences in life expectancy for a single year, 2010 (3). All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Modelling the Future Hydroclimatology of the Lower Fraser River and its Impacts on the Spawning Migration Survival of Sockeye Salmon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hague, M. J.; Ferrari, M. R.; Miller, J. R.; Patterson, D. A.; Russell, G. L.; Farrell, A.P.; Hinch, S. G.

2010-01-01

Short episodic high temperature events can be lethal for migrating adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). We downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success. Alarmingly, a modest 1.0 C increase in average summer water temperature over 100 years (1981-2000 to 2081-2100) tripled the number of days per year exceeding critical salmonid thermal thresholds (i.e. 19.0 C). Refined thresholds for two populations (Gates Creek and Weaver Creek) of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were defined using physiological constraint models based on aerobic scope. While extreme temperatures leading to complete aerobic collapse remained unlikely under our warming scenario, both populations were increasingly forced to migrate upriver at reduced levels of aerobic performance (e.g. in 80% of future simulations, => 90% of salmon encountered temperatures exceeding population specific thermal optima for maximum aerobic scope; T(sub opt)) = 16.3 C for Gates Creek and T(sub sopt)=14.5 C for Weaver Creek). Assuming recent changes to river entry timing persist, we also predicted dramatic increases in the probability of freshwater mortality for Weaver Creek salmon due to reductions in aerobic, and general physiological, performance (e.g. in 42% of future simulations =>50% of Weaver Creek fish exceeded temperature thresholds associated with 0 - 60% of maximum aerobic scope). Potential for adaptation via directional selection on run-timing was more evident for the Weaver Creek population. Early entry Weaver Creek fish experienced 25% (range: 15 - 31%) more suboptimal temperatures than late entrants, compared with an 8% difference (range: 0 - 17%) between early and late Gates Creek fish. Our results emphasize the need to consider daily temperature variability in association with population-specific differences in behaviour and physiological constraints when forecasting impacts of climate change on migratory survival of aquatic species.

Do You See What I See? Exploring the Consequences of Luminosity Limits in Black Hole-Galaxy Evolution Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Mackenzie L.; Hickox, Ryan C.; Mutch, Simon J.; Croton, Darren J.; Ptak, Andrew F.; DiPompeo, Michael A.

2017-07-01

In studies of the connection between active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and their host galaxies, there is widespread disagreement on some key aspects of the connection. These disagreements largely stem from a lack of understanding of the nature of the full underlying AGN population. Recent attempts to probe this connection utilize both observations and simulations to correct for a missed population, but presently are limited by intrinsic biases and complicated models. We take a simple simulation for galaxy evolution and add a new prescription for AGN activity to connect galaxy growth to dark matter halo properties and AGN activity to star formation. We explicitly model selection effects to produce an “observed” AGN population for comparison with observations and empirically motivated models of the local universe. This allows us to bypass the difficulties inherent in models that attempt to infer the AGN population by inverting selection effects. We investigate the impact of selecting AGNs based on thresholds in luminosity or Eddington ratio on the “observed” AGN population. By limiting our model AGN sample in luminosity, we are able to recreate the observed local AGN luminosity function and specific star formation-stellar mass distribution, and show that using an Eddington ratio threshold introduces less bias into the sample by selecting the full range of growing black holes, despite the challenge of selecting low-mass black holes. We find that selecting AGNs using these various thresholds yield samples with different AGN host galaxy properties.

Beverton-Holt discrete pest management models with pulsed chemical control and evolution of pesticide resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Juhua; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

2016-07-01

Pest resistance to pesticides is usually managed by switching between different types of pesticides. The optimal switching time, which depends on the dynamics of the pest population and on the evolution of the pesticide resistance, is critical. Here we address how the dynamic complexity of the pest population, the development of resistance and the spraying frequency of pulsed chemical control affect optimal switching strategies given different control aims. To do this, we developed novel discrete pest population growth models with both impulsive chemical control and the evolution of pesticide resistance. Strong and weak threshold conditions which guarantee the extinction of the pest population, based on the threshold values of the analytical formula for the optimal switching time, were derived. Further, we addressed switching strategies in the light of chosen economic injury levels. Moreover, the effects of the complex dynamical behaviour of the pest population on the pesticide switching times were also studied. The pesticide application period, the evolution of pesticide resistance and the dynamic complexity of the pest population may result in complex outbreak patterns, with consequent effects on the pesticide switching strategies.

Vastus lateralis single motor unit EMG at the same absolute torque production at different knee angles.

PubMed

Altenburg, T M; de Haan, A; Verdijk, P W L; van Mechelen, W; de Ruiter, C J

2009-07-01

Single motor unit electromyographic (EMG) activity of the knee extensors was investigated at different knee angles with subjects (n = 10) exerting the same absolute submaximal isometric torque at each angle. Measurements were made over a 20 degrees range around the optimum angle for torque production (AngleTmax) and, where feasible, over a wider range (50 degrees ). Forty-six vastus lateralis (VL) motor units were recorded at 20.7 +/- 17.9 %maximum voluntary contraction (%MVC) together with the rectified surface EMG (rsEMG) of the superficial VL muscle. Due to the lower maximal torque capacity at positions more flexed and extended than AngleTmax, single motor unit recruitment thresholds were expected to decrease and discharge rates were expected to increase at angles above and below AngleTmax. Unexpectedly, the recruitment threshold was higher (P < 0.05) at knee angles 10 degrees more extended (43.7 +/- 22.2 N.m) and not different (P > 0.05) at knee angles 10 degrees more flexed (35.2 +/- 17.9 N.m) compared with recruitment threshold at AngleTmax (41.8 +/- 21.4 N.m). Also, unexpectedly the discharge rates were similar (P > 0.05) at the three angles: 11.6 +/- 2.2, 11.6 +/- 2.1, and 12.3 +/- 2.1 Hz. Similar angle independent discharge rates were also found for 12 units (n = 5; 7.4 +/- 5.4 %MVC) studied over the wider (50 degrees ) range, while recruitment threshold only decreased at more flexed angles. In conclusion, the similar recruitment threshold and discharge behavior of VL motor units during submaximal isometric torque production suggests that net motor unit activation did not change very much along the ascending limb of the knee-angle torque relationship. Several factors such as length-dependent twitch potentiation, which may contribute to this unexpected aspect of motor control, are discussed.

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

The population of submillimeter galaxies and its impact on the detection of the Sunyaev-Zel'Dovich Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downes, Thomas Patrick

The population of submillimeter galaxies (SMGs) informs models of the formation of structure in the universe. It is likely that SMGs are the progenitors of systems like the Milky Way because their spectra imply the high star formation rates necessary to form the requisite number of stars. Until recently millimeter/submillimeter experiments did not have the sensitivity to image both wide and deep to distinguish between competing models of galaxy evolution. AzTEC is an array instrument operating at 1.1mm that has the necessary sensitivity and dedicated telescope time and has begun making groundbreaking contributions to the field. Furthermore, SMGs are an expected foreground to the detection of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect (SZE) in clusters of galaxies. In particular, at wavelengths longer than 1.4mm the positive flux of SMGs below an instrument's sensitivity threshold will counteract the decrement expected from the SZE. The detection of galaxy clusters is a promising approach to understanding the expansion history of the universe and putting constraints on s 8 as well as on the properties the dark energy. We present below the results of an analysis of AzTEC surveys for SMGs in galaxy cluster environments as well as "blank" fields far away from clusters. We compare the two results and those of previous surveys and estimate their implications for the ability of a blind survey at 2mm to detect the SZE in clusters. We find that the noise contributions of SMGs to SZE detection are small compared to the sensitivity of existing surveys, such as that of the South Pole Telescope.

Clinical and economic impact of a specific BCG vaccination program implemented in Prato, central Italy, involving foreign newborns on hospitalizations.

PubMed

Bellini, Irene; Nastasi, Antonino; Boccalini, Sara

2016-09-01

In Tuscany (Central Italy), the average annual notification rate of tuberculosis (TB) in the years 2007-2012 was 7.5-9.8 per 100,000 people, with the Local Health Unit of Prato (LHU4) showing the highest rate compared to the other regional area. Therefore, in order to reduce the burden of TB, foreign newborns in the LHU4 are being given the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine since 2000. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of BCG vaccination in Prato, in terms of TB-related hospitalizations and costs. The regional archive containing all TB-related discharges and costs in the period 2007-2014 was consulted. Data regarding foreigners living in the LHU4 who have been vaccinated since 2000 were compared with those living in the other Tuscan LHUs and never vaccinated. These populations were then disaggregated by a threshold age of 15 y. After calculating the standardized hospitalization rates, the expected number of hospitalizations for TB among unvaccinated adults (in both populations) was found to be similar in the LHU4 and the other LHUs (165 vs. 156). However, expected number of hospitalizations among children in the other Tuscan LHUs (67) was double that of the LHU4 (34). If the same vaccine had been administrated everywhere, each year 29 hospitalizations could have been avoided and EUR 343,525 saved. Overall, BCG vaccinations cost EUR 14,879 in the LHU4, but 69 hospitalizations were avoided and EUR 107,435 saved. The introduction of the BCG immunization program in the LHU4 of Prato has led to significant reductions in the clinical and economic impact of TB.

Polarization asymmetry in two-electron photodetachment - A cogent test of the ionization threshold law

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Temkin, A.; Bhatia, A. K.

1988-01-01

A very sensitive test of the electron-atom ionization threshold law is suggested: for spin-aligned heavy negative ions it consists of measuring the polarization asymmetry A(PA) coming from double detachment by left- versus right-circularly polarized light. The respective yields are worked out for the Te(-) (5p)5 2P(3/2) ion. The Coulomb-dipole theory predicts A(PA) to be the ratio of two oscillating functions in sharp contrast to any power law (specifically that of Wannier, 1953) for which the ratio is expected to be a smooth function of energy.

Locating helicopter emergency medical service bases to optimise population coverage versus average response time.

PubMed

Garner, Alan A; van den Berg, Pieter L

2017-10-16

New South Wales (NSW), Australia has a network of multirole retrieval physician staffed helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) with seven bases servicing a jurisdiction with population concentrated along the eastern seaboard. The aim of this study was to estimate optimal HEMS base locations within NSW using advanced mathematical modelling techniques. We used high resolution census population data for NSW from 2011 which divides the state into areas containing 200-800 people. Optimal HEMS base locations were estimated using the maximal covering location problem facility location optimization model and the average response time model, exploring the number of bases needed to cover various fractions of the population for a 45 min response time threshold or minimizing the overall average response time to all persons, both in green field scenarios and conditioning on the current base structure. We also developed a hybrid mathematical model where average response time was optimised based on minimum population coverage thresholds. Seven bases could cover 98% of the population within 45mins when optimised for coverage or reach the entire population of the state within an average of 21mins if optimised for response time. Given the existing bases, adding two bases could either increase the 45 min coverage from 91% to 97% or decrease the average response time from 21mins to 19mins. Adding a single specialist prehospital rapid response HEMS to the area of greatest population concentration decreased the average state wide response time by 4mins. The optimum seven base hybrid model that was able to cover 97.75% of the population within 45mins, and all of the population in an average response time of 18 mins included the rapid response HEMS model. HEMS base locations can be optimised based on either percentage of the population covered, or average response time to the entire population. We have also demonstrated a hybrid technique that optimizes response time for a given number of bases and minimum defined threshold of population coverage. Addition of specialized rapid response HEMS services to a system of multirole retrieval HEMS may reduce overall average response times by improving access in large urban areas.

Do Ankle Orthoses Improve Ankle Proprioceptive Thresholds or Unipedal Balance in Older Persons with Peripheral Neuropathy?

PubMed Central

Son, Jaebum; Ashton-Miller, James A.; Richardson, James K.

2010-01-01

Objective To determine whether ankle orthoses that provide medial and lateral support, and have been found to decrease gait variability in older persons with peripheral neuropathy, decrease (improve) frontal plane ankle proprioceptive thresholds or increase unipedal stance time in that same population. Design Observational study in which unipedal stance time was determined with a stopwatch, and frontal plane ankle (inversion and eversion) proprioceptive thresholds were quantified during bipedal stance with and without the ankle orthoses, in 11 older diabetic subjects with peripheral neuropathy (8 men; age 72 ± 7.1 years) using a foot cradle system which presented a series of 100 rotational stimuli. Results The subjects demonstrated no change in combined frontal plane (inversion + eversion) proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal stance time with versus without the orthoses (1.06 ± 0.56 versus 1.13 ± 0.39 degrees, respectively; p = 0.955 and 6.1 ± 6.5 versus 6.2 ± 5.4 seconds, respectively; p = 0.922). Conclusion Ankle orthoses which provide medial-lateral support do not appear to change ankle inversion/eversion proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal stance time in older persons with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Previously identified improvements in gait variability using orthoses in this population are therefore likely related to an orthotically-induced stiffening of the ankle rather than a change in ankle afferent function. PMID:20407302

Space-time analysis of Down syndrome: results consistent with transient pre-disposing contagious agent.

PubMed

McNally, Richard J Q; Rankin, Judith; Shirley, Mark D F; Rushton, Stephen P; Pless-Mulloli, Tanja

2008-10-01

Whilst maternal age is an established risk factor for Patau syndrome (trisomy 13), Edwards syndrome (trisomy 18) and Down syndrome (trisomy 21), the aetiology and contribution of genetic and environmental factors remains unclear. We analysed for space-time clustering using high quality fully population-based data from a geographically defined region. The study included all cases of Patau, Edwards and Down syndrome, delivered during 1985-2003 and resident in the former Northern Region of England, including terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. We applied the K-function test for space-time clustering with fixed thresholds of close in space and time using residential addresses at time of delivery. The Knox test was used to indicate the range over which the clustering effect occurred. Tests were repeated using nearest neighbour (NN) thresholds to adjust for variable population density. The study analysed 116 cases of Patau syndrome, 240 cases of Edwards syndrome and 1084 cases of Down syndrome. There was evidence of space-time clustering for Down syndrome (fixed threshold of close in space: P = 0.01, NN threshold: P = 0.02), but little or no clustering for Patau (P = 0.57, P = 0.19) or Edwards (P = 0.37, P = 0.06) syndromes. Clustering of Down syndrome was associated with cases from more densely populated areas and evidence of clustering persisted when cases were restricted to maternal age <40 years. The highly novel space-time clustering for Down syndrome suggests an aetiological role for transient environmental factors, such as infections.

Inductive reasoning and forecasting of population dynamics of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in three sub-tropical reservoirs by evolutionary computation.

PubMed

Recknagel, Friedrich; Orr, Philip T; Cao, Hongqing

2014-01-01

Seven-day-ahead forecasting models of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in three warm-monomictic and mesotrophic reservoirs in south-east Queensland have been developed by means of water quality data from 1999 to 2010 and the hybrid evolutionary algorithm HEA. Resulting models using all measured variables as inputs as well as models using electronically measurable variables only as inputs forecasted accurately timing of overgrowth of C. raciborskii and matched well high and low magnitudes of observed bloom events with 0.45≤r 2 >0.61 and 0.4≤r 2 >0.57, respectively. The models also revealed relationships and thresholds triggering bloom events that provide valuable information on synergism between water quality conditions and population dynamics of C. raciborskii. Best performing models based on using all measured variables as inputs indicated electrical conductivity (EC) within the range of 206-280mSm -1 as threshold above which fast growth and high abundances of C. raciborskii have been observed for the three lakes. Best models based on electronically measurable variables for the Lakes Wivenhoe and Somerset indicated a water temperature (WT) range of 25.5-32.7°C within which fast growth and high abundances of C. raciborskii can be expected. By contrast the model for Lake Samsonvale highlighted a turbidity (TURB) level of 4.8 NTU as indicator for mass developments of C. raciborskii. Experiments with online measured water quality data of the Lake Wivenhoe from 2007 to 2010 resulted in predictive models with 0.61≤r 2 >0.65 whereby again similar levels of EC and WT have been discovered as thresholds for outgrowth of C. raciborskii. The highest validity of r 2 =0.75 for an in situ data-based model has been achieved after considering time lags for EC by 7 days and dissolved oxygen by 1 day. These time lags have been discovered by a systematic screening of all possible combinations of time lags between 0 and 10 days for all electronically measurable variables. The so-developed model performs seven-day-ahead forecasts and is currently implemented and tested for early warning of C. raciborskii blooms in the Wivenhoe reservoir. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Threshold-dependent sample sizes for selenium assessment with stream fish tissue

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Smith, David R.

2015-01-01

Natural resource managers are developing assessments of selenium (Se) contamination in freshwater ecosystems based on fish tissue concentrations. We evaluated the effects of sample size (i.e., number of fish per site) on the probability of correctly detecting mean whole-body Se values above a range of potential management thresholds. We modeled Se concentrations as gamma distributions with shape and scale parameters fitting an empirical mean-to-variance relationship in data from southwestern West Virginia, USA (63 collections, 382 individuals). We used parametric bootstrapping techniques to calculate statistical power as the probability of detecting true mean concentrations up to 3 mg Se/kg above management thresholds ranging from 4 to 8 mg Se/kg. Sample sizes required to achieve 80% power varied as a function of management thresholds and Type I error tolerance (α). Higher thresholds required more samples than lower thresholds because populations were more heterogeneous at higher mean Se levels. For instance, to assess a management threshold of 4 mg Se/kg, a sample of eight fish could detect an increase of approximately 1 mg Se/kg with 80% power (given α = 0.05), but this sample size would be unable to detect such an increase from a management threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with more than a coin-flip probability. Increasing α decreased sample size requirements to detect above-threshold mean Se concentrations with 80% power. For instance, at an α-level of 0.05, an 8-fish sample could detect an increase of approximately 2 units above a threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with 80% power, but when α was relaxed to 0.2, this sample size was more sensitive to increasing mean Se concentrations, allowing detection of an increase of approximately 1.2 units with equivalent power. Combining individuals into 2- and 4-fish composite samples for laboratory analysis did not decrease power because the reduced number of laboratory samples was compensated for by increased precision of composites for estimating mean conditions. However, low sample sizes (<5 fish) did not achieve 80% power to detect near-threshold values (i.e., <1 mg Se/kg) under any scenario we evaluated. This analysis can assist the sampling design and interpretation of Se assessments from fish tissue by accounting for natural variation in stream fish populations.

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura C.; Griffith, Kereen; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Rational expectations, psychology and inductive learning via moving thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamba, H.; Seaman, T.

2008-06-01

This paper modifies a previously introduced class of heterogeneous agent models in a way that allows for the inclusion of different types of agent motivations and behaviours in a consistent manner. The agents operate within a highly simplified environment where they are only able to be long or short one unit of the asset. The price of the asset is influenced by both an external information stream and the demand of the agents. The current strategy of each agent is defined by a pair of moving thresholds straddling the current price. When the price crosses either of the thresholds for a particular agent, that agent switches position and a new pair of thresholds is generated. The threshold dynamics can mimic different sources of investor motivation, running the gamut from purely rational information-processing, through rational (but often undesirable) behaviour induced by perverse incentives and moral hazards, to purely psychological effects. The simplest model of this kind precisely conforms to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and this allows causal relationships to be established between actions at the agent level and violations of EMH price statistics at the global level. In particular, the effects of herding behaviour and perverse incentives are examined.

Rationality, practice variation and person‐centred health policy: a threshold hypothesis

PubMed Central

Hamm, Robert M.; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Van den Ende, Jef

2015-01-01

Abstract Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability thresholds at which physicians decide to act: contextual social and clinical factors and emotions such as regret affect the threshold by influencing the way doctors integrate objective data related to treatment and testing. However, depending on a theoretical construct each of the physician's behaviour can be considered rational. In fact, we showed that the current regulatory policies lead to predictably low thresholds for most decisions in contemporary practice. As a result, we may expect continuing motivation for overuse of treatment and diagnostic tests. We argue that rationality should take into account both formal principles of rationality and human intuitions about good decisions along the lines of Rawls' ‘reflective equilibrium/considered judgment’. In turn, this can help define a threshold model that is empirically testable. PMID:26639018

Estimating phonation threshold pressure.

PubMed

Fisher, K V; Swank, P R

1997-10-01

Phonation threshold pressure (PTP) is the minimum subglottal pressure required to initiate vocal fold oscillation. Although potentially useful clinically, PTP is difficult to estimate noninvasively because of limitations to vocal motor control near the threshold of soft phonation. Previous investigators observed, for example, that trained subjects were unable to produce flat, consistent oral pressure peaks during/pae/syllable strings when they attempted to phonate as softly as possible (Verdolini-Marston, Titze, & Druker, 1990). The present study aimed to determine if nasal airflow or vowel context affected phonation threshold pressure as estimated from oral pressure (Smitheran & Hixon, 1981) in 5 untrained female speakers with normal velopharyngeal and voice function. Nasal airflow during /p/occlusion was observed for 3 of 5 participants when they attempted to phonate near threshold pressure. When the nose was occluded, nasal airflow was reduced or eliminated during /p/;however, individuals then evidenced compensatory changes in glottal adduction and/or respiratory effort that may be expected to alter PTP estimates. Results demonstrate the importance of monitoring nasal flow (or the flow zero point in undivided masks) when obtaining PTP measurements noninvasively. Results also highlight the need to pursue improved methods for noninvasive estimation of PTP.

Expectancy-induced placebo analgesia in children and the role of magical thinking.

PubMed

Krummenacher, Peter; Kossowsky, Joe; Schwarz, Caroline; Brugger, Peter; Kelley, John M; Meyer, Andrea; Gaab, Jens

2014-12-01

Expectations and beliefs shape the experience of pain. This is most evident in context-induced, placebo analgesia, which has recently been shown to interact with the trait of magical thinking (MT) in adults. In children, placebo analgesia and the possible roles that MT and gender might play as modulators of placebo analgesia have remained unexplored. Using a paradigm in which heat pain stimuli were applied to both forearms, we investigated whether MT and gender can influence the magnitude of placebo analgesia in children. Participants were 49 right-handed children (aged 6-9 years) who were randomly assigned-stratified for MT and gender-to either an analgesia-expectation or a control-expectation condition. For both conditions, the placebo was a blue-colored hand disinfectant that was applied to the children's forearms. Independent of MT, the placebo treatment significantly increased both heat pain threshold and tolerance. The threshold placebo effect was more pronounced for girls than boys. In addition, independent of the expectation treatment, low-MT boys showed a lower tolerance increase on the left compared to the right side. Finally, MT specifically modulated tolerance on the right forearm side: Low-MT boys showed an increase, whereas high-MT boys showed a decrease in heat pain tolerance. This study documented a substantial expectation-induced placebo analgesia response in children (girls > boys) and demonstrated MT and gender-dependent laterality effects in pain perception. The findings may help improve individualized pain management for children. The study documents the first experimental evidence for a substantial expectancy-induced placebo analgesia response in healthy children aged 6 to 9 years (girls > boys). Moreover, the effect was substantially higher than the placebo response typically found in adults. The findings may help improve individualized pain management for children. Copyright © 2014 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of a lateral glide mobilisation with movement of the hip on vibration threshold in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Smith, Darren A; Saranga, Jacob; Pritchard, Andrew; Kommatas, Nikolaos A; Punnoose, Shinu Kovelal; Kale, Supriya Tukaram

2018-01-01

Mulligan's mobilisation-with-movement (MWM) techniques are proposed to achieve their clinical benefit via neurophysiological mechanisms. However, previous research has focussed on responses in the sympathetic nervous system only, and is not conclusive. An alternative measure of neurophysiological response to MWM is required to support or refute this mechanism of action. Recently, vibration threshold (VT) has been used to quantify changes in the sensory nervous system in patients experiencing musculoskeletal pain. To investigate the effect of a lateral glide MWM of the hip joint on vibration threshold compared to a placebo and control condition in asymptomatic volunteers. Fifteen asymptomatic volunteers participated in this single-blinded, randomised, within-subject, placebo, control design. Participants received each of three interventions in a randomised order; a lateral glide MWM of the hip joint into flexion, a placebo MWM, and a control intervention. Vibration threshold (VT) measures were taken at baseline and immediately after each intervention. Mean change in VT from baseline was calculated for each intervention and then analysed for between group differences using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). A one-way ANOVA revealed no statistically significant differences between the three experimental conditions (P = 0.812). This small study found that a lateral glide MWM of the hip did not significantly change vibration threshold compared to a placebo and control intervention in an asymptomatic population. This study provides a method of using vibration threshold to investigate the potential neurophysiological effects of a manual therapy intervention that should be repeated in a larger, symptomatic population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Rational Approach to Determine Minimum Strength Thresholds in Novel Structural Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schur, Willi W.; Bilen, Canan; Sterling, Jerry

2003-01-01

Design of safe and survivable structures requires the availability of guaranteed minimum strength thresholds for structural materials to enable a meaningful comparison of strength requirement and available strength. This paper develops a procedure for determining such a threshold with a desired degree of confidence, for structural materials with none or minimal industrial experience. The problem arose in attempting to use a new, highly weight-efficient structural load tendon material to achieve a lightweight super-pressure balloon. The developed procedure applies to lineal (one dimensional) structural elements. One important aspect of the formulation is that it extrapolates to expected probability distributions for long length specimen samples from some hypothesized probability distribution that has been obtained from a shorter length specimen sample. The use of the developed procedure is illustrated using both real and simulated data.

Proton Form Factors Measurements in the Time-Like Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anulli, F.; /Frascati

2007-10-22

I present an overview of the measurement of the proton form factors in the time-like region. BABAR has recently measured with great accuracy the e{sup +}e{sup -} {yields} p{bar p} reaction from production threshold up to an energy of {approx} 4.5 GeV, finding evidence for a ratio of the electric to magnetic form factor greater than unity, contrary to expectation. In agreement with previous measurements, BABAR confirmed the steep rise of the magnetic form factor close to the p{bar p} mass threshold, suggesting the possible presence of an under-threshold N{bar N} vector state. These and other open questions related tomore » the nucleon form factors both in the time-like and space-like region, wait for more data with different experimental techniques to be possibly solved.« less

Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan.

PubMed

Davis, Stephen; Begon, Mike; De Bruyn, Luc; Ageyev, Vladimir S; Klassovskiy, Nikolay L; Pole, Sergey B; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Leirs, Herwig

2004-04-30

In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates in natural populations of gerbils, which are the source of human cases of bubonic plague. Our analysis of field data collected between 1955 and 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, and reinvades in response to fluctuations in the abundance of its main reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). This is a rare empirical example of the two types of abundance thresholds for infectious disease-invasion and persistence- operating in a single wildlife population. We parameterized predictive models that should reduce the costs of plague surveillance in central Asia and thereby encourage its continuance.

Epidemiology, presentation and population genetics of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in the Dutch Stabyhoun dog.

PubMed

den Toom, Marjolein L; Meiling, Agnes E; Thomas, Rachel E; Leegwater, Peter A J; Heuven, Henri C M

2016-06-13

Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) is one of the most common congenital heart defects in dogs and is considered to be a complex, polygenic threshold trait for which a female sex predisposition has been described. Histological studies in dogs suggest that smooth muscle hypoplasia and asymmetry of the ductus tissue is the major cause of PDA. The Stabyhoun population is small and a predisposition for PDA has been suggested. The aims of this study were to describe the incidence, presentation from a clinical and histopathological perspective, and the population genetics of PDA in the Dutch Stabyhoun population. Forty-six cases were identified between 2000 and 2013. Between 2009 and 2012 the birth incidence of PDA in the Stabyhoun breed was 1.05 %. We estimated this to be 7-13 times higher than expected in the general dog population. Twelve of the 46 cases were part of a litter in which more than one sibling was affected. There was no sex predilection in our case cohort. Dogs diagnosed in adulthood showed severe cardiomegaly. The mean inbreeding coefficient of the reference population of Stabyhoun dogs was 31.4 % and the actual and effective numbers of founders were 14 and 6.5, respectively. The heritability of PDA was 0.51 (±0.09) for the reference population and 0.41 (±0.10) for the phenotyped population. Histopathology of sections of the PDA from two dogs showed findings similar to those described in other breeds although the smooth muscle of the ductus adjacent to the pulmonary artery appeared more hypoplastic than that in the ductus adjacent to the aorta. The Stabyhoun breed shows a strong predisposition for PDA. Apart from the absence of a higher incidence in females, no other significant features distinguish PDA in Stabyhouns from the condition in other dog breeds. Heritability and the mean inbreeding coefficient are both very high making the Dutch Stabyhoun breed particularly suited to the study of inherited risk factors for PDA.

Verification of the tumor volume delineation method using a fixed threshold of peak standardized uptake value.

PubMed

Koyama, Kazuya; Mitsumoto, Takuya; Shiraishi, Takahiro; Tsuda, Keisuke; Nishiyama, Atsushi; Inoue, Kazumasa; Yoshikawa, Kyosan; Hatano, Kazuo; Kubota, Kazuo; Fukushi, Masahiro

2017-09-01

We aimed to determine the difference in tumor volume associated with the reconstruction model in positron-emission tomography (PET). To reduce the influence of the reconstruction model, we suggested a method to measure the tumor volume using the relative threshold method with a fixed threshold based on peak standardized uptake value (SUV peak ). The efficacy of our method was verified using 18 F-2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose PET/computed tomography images of 20 patients with lung cancer. The tumor volume was determined using the relative threshold method with a fixed threshold based on the SUV peak . The PET data were reconstructed using the ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) model, the OSEM + time-of-flight (TOF) model, and the OSEM + TOF + point-spread function (PSF) model. The volume differences associated with the reconstruction algorithm (%VD) were compared. For comparison, the tumor volume was measured using the relative threshold method based on the maximum SUV (SUV max ). For the OSEM and TOF models, the mean %VD values were -0.06 ± 8.07 and -2.04 ± 4.23% for the fixed 40% threshold according to the SUV max and the SUV peak, respectively. The effect of our method in this case seemed to be minor. For the OSEM and PSF models, the mean %VD values were -20.41 ± 14.47 and -13.87 ± 6.59% for the fixed 40% threshold according to the SUV max and SUV peak , respectively. Our new method enabled the measurement of tumor volume with a fixed threshold and reduced the influence of the changes in tumor volume associated with the reconstruction model.

Health-adjusted life expectancy in Canada.

PubMed

Bushnik, Tracey; Tjepkema, Michael; Martel, Laurent

2018-04-18

Over the past century, life expectancy at birth in Canada has risen substantially. However, these gains in the quantity of life say little about gains in the quality of life. Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), an indicator of quality of life, was estimated for the household and institutional populations combined every four years from 1994/1995 to 2015. Health status was measured by the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 instrument in two national population health surveys, and was used to adjust life expectancy. The percentage of the population living in health-related institutions was estimated based on the Census of Population. Attribute-deleted HALE was calculated to determine how various aspects of health status contributed to the differences between life expectancy and HALE. HALE has increased in Canada. Greater gains among males have narrowed the gap between males and females. The ratio of HALE to life expectancy changed little for males, and a marginal improvement was observed for females aged 65 or older. Mobility problems and pain, the latter mainly among females, accounted for an increased share of the burden of ill health over time. Exclusion of the institutional population significantly increased the estimates of HALE and yielded higher ratios of HALE to life expectancy. Although people are living longer, the share of years spent in good functional health has remained fairly constant. Data for both the household and institutional populations are necessary for a complete picture of health expectancy in Canada.

Economic values under inappropriate normal distribution assumptions.

PubMed

Sadeghi-Sefidmazgi, A; Nejati-Javaremi, A; Moradi-Shahrbabak, M; Miraei-Ashtiani, S R; Amer, P R

2012-08-01

The objectives of this study were to quantify the errors in economic values (EVs) for traits affected by cost or price thresholds when skewed or kurtotic distributions of varying degree are assumed to be normal and when data with a normal distribution is subject to censoring. EVs were estimated for a continuous trait with dichotomous economic implications because of a price premium or penalty arising from a threshold ranging between -4 and 4 standard deviations from the mean. In order to evaluate the impacts of skewness, positive and negative excess kurtosis, standard skew normal, Pearson and the raised cosine distributions were used, respectively. For the various evaluable levels of skewness and kurtosis, the results showed that EVs can be underestimated or overestimated by more than 100% when price determining thresholds fall within a range from the mean that might be expected in practice. Estimates of EVs were very sensitive to censoring or missing data. In contrast to practical genetic evaluation, economic evaluation is very sensitive to lack of normality and missing data. Although in some special situations, the presence of multiple thresholds may attenuate the combined effect of errors at each threshold point, in practical situations there is a tendency for a few key thresholds to dominate the EV, and there are many situations where errors could be compounded across multiple thresholds. In the development of breeding objectives for non-normal continuous traits influenced by value thresholds, it is necessary to select a transformation that will resolve problems of non-normality or consider alternative methods that are less sensitive to non-normality.

Hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde allergy: relationship between patch test and repeated open application test thresholds.

PubMed

Fischer, L A; Menné, T; Avnstorp, C; Kasting, G B; Johansen, J D

2009-09-01

Hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) is a synthetic fragrance ingredient. Case reports of allergy to HICC appeared in the 1980s, and HICC has recently been included in the European baseline series. Human elicitation dose-response studies performed with different allergens have shown a significant relationship between the patch-test threshold and the repeated open application test (ROAT) threshold, which mimics some real-life exposure situations. Fragrance ingredients are special as significant amounts of allergen may evaporate from the skin. The study aimed to investigate the relationship between elicitation threshold doses at the patch test and the ROAT, using HICC as the allergen. The expected evaporation rate was calculated. Seventeen HICC-allergic persons were tested with a dilution series of HICC in a patch test and a ROAT (duration up to 21 days). Seventeen persons with no HICC allergy were included as control group for the ROAT. Results The response frequency to the ROAT (in microg HICC cm(-2) per application) was significantly higher than the response frequency to the patch test at one of the tested doses. Furthermore the response rate to the accumulated ROAT dose was significantly lower at half of the doses compared with the patch test. The evaporation rate of HICC was calculated to be 72% over a 24-h period. The ROAT threshold in dose per area per application is lower than the patch test threshold; furthermore the accumulated ROAT threshold is higher than the patch test threshold, which can probably be explained by the evaporation of HICC from the skin in the open test.

Thermal perception thresholds among workers in a cold climate.

PubMed

Burström, Lage; Björ, Bodil; Nilsson, Tohr; Pettersson, Hans; Rödin, Ingemar; Wahlström, Jens

2017-10-01

To investigate whether exposure to cold could influence the thermal perception thresholds in a working population. This cross-sectional study was comprised of 251 males and females and was carried out at two mines in the northern part of Norway and Sweden. The testing included a baseline questionnaire, a clinical examination and measurements of thermal perception thresholds, on both hands, the index (Digit 2) and little (Digit 5) fingers, for heat and cold. The thermal perception thresholds were affected by age, gender and test site. The thresholds were impaired by experiences of frostbite in the fingers and the use of medication that potentially could affect neurosensory functions. No differences were found between the calculated normative values for these workers and those in other comparative investigations conducted in warmer climates. The study provided no support for the hypothesis that living and working in cold climate will lead to impaired thermal perception thresholds. Exposure to cold that had caused localized damage in the form of frostbite was shown to lead to impaired thermal perception.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Runaway Electron Momentum Distributions in Tokamaks

DOE PAGES

Paz-Soldan, Carlos; Cooper, Christopher M.; Aleynikov, Pavel; ...

2017-06-22

Novel spatial, temporal, and energetically resolved measurements of bremsstrahlung hard-x-ray (HXR) emission from runaway electron (RE) populations in tokamaks reveal nonmonotonic RE distribution functions whose properties depend on the interplay of electric field acceleration with collisional and synchrotron damping. Measurements are consistent with theoretical predictions of momentum-space attractors that accumulate runaway electrons. RE distribution functions are measured to shift to a higher energy when the synchrotron force is reduced by decreasing the toroidal magnetic field strength. Increasing the collisional damping by increasing the electron density (at a fixed magnetic and electric field) reduces the energy of the nonmonotonic feature andmore » reduces the HXR growth rate at all energies. Higher-energy HXR growth rates extrapolate to zero at the expected threshold electric field for RE sustainment, while low-energy REs are anomalously lost. The compilation ofHXR emission from different sight lines into the plasma yields energy and pitch-angle-resolved RE distributions and demonstrates increasing pitch-angle and radial gradients with energy.« less

Cortical preparatory activity: representation of movement or first cog in a dynamical machine?

PubMed Central

Churchland, MM; Cunningham, JP; Kaufman, MT; Ryu, SI; Shenoy, KV

2010-01-01

Summary The motor cortices are active during both movement and movement preparation. A common assumption is that preparatory activity constitutes a sub-threshold form of movement activity: a neuron active during rightwards movements becomes modestly active during preparation of a rightwards movement. We asked whether this pattern of activity is in fact observed. We found that it was not: at the level of a single neuron, preparatory tuning was weakly correlated with movement-period tuning. Yet somewhat paradoxically, preparatory tuning could be captured by a preferred direction in an abstract ‘space’ that described the population-level pattern of movement activity. In fact, this relationship accounted for preparatory responses better than did traditional tuning models. These results are expected if preparatory activity provides the initial state of a dynamical system whose evolution produces movement activity. Our results thus suggest that preparatory activity may not represent specific factors, and may instead play a more mechanistic role. PMID:21040842

Landslide vulnerability criteria: a case study from Umbria, central Italy.

PubMed

Galli, Mirco; Guzzetti, Fausto

2007-10-01

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.

The effect of condoms on penile vibrotactile sensitivity thresholds in young, heterosexual men

PubMed Central

Hill, Brandon J.; Janssen, Erick; Kvam, Peter; Amick, Erick E.; Sanders, Stephanie A.

2013-01-01

Introduction Investigating the ways in which barrier methods such as condoms may affect penile sensory thresholds has potential relevance to the development of interventions in men who experience negative effects of condoms on sexual response and sensation. A quantitative, psychophysiological investigation examining the degree to which sensations are altered by condoms has, to date, not been conducted. Aim The objective of this study was to examine penile vibrotactile sensitivity thresholds in both flaccid and erect penises with and without a condom, while comparing men who do and those who do not report condom-associated erection problems (CAEP). Methods Penile vibrotactile sensitivity thresholds were assessed among a total of 141 young, heterosexual men using biothesiometry. An incremental two-step staircase method was used and repeated three times for each of four conditions. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) were calculated for all vibratory assessments. Penile vibratory thresholds were compared using a mixed-model Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Main Outcome Measures Penile vibrotactile sensitivity thresholds with and without a condom, erectile function measured by International Index of Erectile Function Questionnaire (IIEF), and self-reported degree of erection. Results Significant main effects of condoms (yes/no) and erection (yes/no) were found. No main or interaction effects of CAEP were found. Condoms were associated with higher penile vibrotactile sensitivity thresholds (F(1, 124)=17.11, p<.001). Penile vibrotactile thresholds were higher with an erect than with a flaccid penis (F(1, 124)=4.21, p=.042). Conclusion The current study demonstrates the feasibility of measuring penile vibratory thresholds with and without a condom in both erect and flaccid experimental conditions. As might be expected, condoms increased penile vibrotactile sensitivity thresholds. Interestingly, erections were associated with the highest thresholds. Thus, this study was the first to document that erect penises are less sensitive to vibrotactile stimulation than flaccid penises. PMID:24168347

Association of daily asthma emergency department visits and hospital admissions with ambient air pollutants among the pediatric Medicaid population in Detroit: time-series and time-stratified case-crossover analyses with threshold effects.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Batterman, Stuart; Wasilevich, Elizabeth; Wahl, Robert; Wirth, Julie; Su, Feng-Chiao; Mukherjee, Bhramar

2011-11-01

Asthma morbidity has been associated with ambient air pollutants in time-series and case-crossover studies. In such study designs, threshold effects of air pollutants on asthma outcomes have been relatively unexplored, which are of potential interest for exploring concentration-response relationships. This study analyzes daily data on the asthma morbidity experienced by the pediatric Medicaid population (ages 2-18 years) of Detroit, Michigan and concentrations of pollutants fine particles (PM2.5), CO, NO2 and SO2 for the 2004-2006 period, using both time-series and case-crossover designs. We use a simple, testable and readily implementable profile likelihood-based approach to estimate threshold parameters in both designs. Evidence of significant increases in daily acute asthma events was found for SO2 and PM2.5, and a significant threshold effect was estimated for PM2.5 at 13 and 11 μg m(-3) using generalized additive models and conditional logistic regression models, respectively. Stronger effect sizes above the threshold were typically noted compared to standard linear relationship, e.g., in the time series analysis, an interquartile range increase (9.2 μg m(-3)) in PM2.5 (5-day-moving average) had a risk ratio of 1.030 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.061) in the generalized additive models, and 1.066 (95% CI: 1.031, 1.102) in the threshold generalized additive models. The corresponding estimates for the case-crossover design were 1.039 (95% CI: 1.013, 1.066) in the conditional logistic regression, and 1.054 (95% CI: 1.023, 1.086) in the threshold conditional logistic regression. This study indicates that the associations of SO2 and PM2.5 concentrations with asthma emergency department visits and hospitalizations, as well as the estimated PM2.5 threshold were fairly consistent across time-series and case-crossover analyses, and suggests that effect estimates based on linear models (without thresholds) may underestimate the true risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Harm is all you need? Best interests and disputes about parental decision-making

PubMed Central

Birchley, Giles

2016-01-01

A growing number of bioethics papers endorse the harm threshold when judging whether to override parental decisions. Among other claims, these papers argue that the harm threshold is easily understood by lay and professional audiences and correctly conforms to societal expectations of parents in regard to their children. English law contains a harm threshold which mediates the use of the best interests test in cases where a child may be removed from her parents. Using Diekema's seminal paper as an example, this paper explores the proposed workings of the harm threshold. I use examples from the practical use of the harm threshold in English law to argue that the harm threshold is an inadequate answer to the indeterminacy of the best interests test. I detail two criticisms: First, the harm standard has evaluative overtones and judges are loath to employ it where parental behaviour is misguided but they wish to treat parents sympathetically. Thus, by focusing only on ‘substandard’ parenting, harm is problematic where the parental attempts to benefit their child are misguided or wrong, such as in disputes about withdrawal of medical treatment. Second, when harm is used in genuine dilemmas, court judgments offer different answers to similar cases. This level of indeterminacy suggests that, in practice, the operation of the harm threshold would be indistinguishable from best interests. Since indeterminacy appears to be the greatest problem in elucidating what is best, bioethicists should concentrate on discovering the values that inform best interests. PMID:26401048

Comparison studies on the percolation thresholds of binary mixture tablets containing excipients of plastic/brittle and plastic/plastic deformation properties.

PubMed

Amin, Mohd C I; Fell, John T

2004-01-01

Percolation theory has been used with great interest in understanding the design and characterization of dosage forms. In this study, work has been carried out to investigate the behavior of binary mixture tablets containing excipients of similar and different deformation properties. The binary mixture tablets were prepared by direct compression using lactose, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), Eudragit RS 100, and microcrystalline cellulose (MCC). The application of percolation theory on the relationships between compactibility, Pmax, or compression susceptibility (compressibility), gamma, and mixture compositions reveals the presence of percolation thresholds even for mixtures of similar deformation properties. The results showed that all mixture compositions exhibited at least one discreet change in the slope, which was referred to as the percolation threshold. The PVC/Eudragit RS100 mixture compositions showed significant percolation threshold at 80% (w/w) PVC loading. Two percolation thresholds were observed from a series of binary mixtures containing similar plastic deformation materials (PVC/MCC). The percolation thresholds were determined at 20% (w/w) and 80% (w/w) PVC loading. These are areas where one of the components percolates throughout the system and the properties of the tablets are expected to experience a sudden change. Experimental results, however, showed that total disruption of the tablet physical properties at the specified percolation thresholds can be observed for PVC/lactose mixtures at 20-30% (w/w) loading while only minor changes in the tablets' strength for PVC/MCC or PVC/Eudragit RS 100 mixtures were observed.

Wildfires in Chernobyl-contaminated forests and risks to the population and the environment: a new nuclear disaster about to happen?

PubMed

Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Hao, Wei Min; Møller, Anders Pape

2014-12-01

Radioactive contamination in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia after the Chernobyl accident left large rural and forest areas to their own fate. Forest succession in conjunction with lack of forest management started gradually transforming the landscape. During the last 28 years dead wood and litter have dramatically accumulated in these areas, whereas climate change has increased temperature and favored drought. The present situation in these forests suggests an increased risk of wildfires, especially after the pronounced forest fires of 2010, which remobilized Chernobyl-deposited radioactive materials transporting them thousand kilometers far. For the aforementioned reasons, we study the consequences of different forest fires on the redistribution of (137)Cs. Using the time frequency of the fires that occurred in the area during 2010, we study three scenarios assuming that 10%, 50% and 100% of the area are burnt. We aim to sensitize the scientific community and the European authorities for the foreseen risks from radioactivity redistribution over Europe. The global model LMDZORINCA that reads deposition density of radionuclides and burnt area from satellites was used, whereas risks for the human and animal population were calculated using the Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model and the computerized software ERICA Tool, respectively. Depending on the scenario, whereas between 20 and 240 humans may suffer from solid cancers, of which 10-170 may be fatal. ERICA predicts insignificant changes in animal populations from the fires, whereas the already extreme radioactivity background plays a major role in their living quality. The resulting releases of (137)Cs after hypothetical wildfires in Chernobyl's forests are classified as high in the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). The estimated cancer incidents and fatalities are expected to be comparable to those predicted for Fukushima. This is attributed to the fact that the distribution of radioactive fallout after the wildfires occurred to the intensely populated Western Europe, whereas after Fukushima it occurred towards the Pacific Ocean. The situation will be exacerbated near the forests not only due to the expected redistribution of refractory radionuclides (also trapped there), but also due to the nutritional habits of the local human and animal population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Active adaptive management for reintroduction of an animal population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.

2013-01-01

Captive animals are frequently reintroduced to the wild in the face of uncertainty, but that uncertainty can often be reduced over the course of the reintroduction effort, providing the opportunity for adaptive management. One common uncertainty in reintroductions is the short-term survival rate of released adults (a release cost), an important factor because it can affect whether releasing adults or juveniles is better. Information about this rate can improve the success of the reintroduction program, but does the expected gain offset the costs of obtaining the information? I explored this question for reintroduction of the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) by framing the management question as a belief Markov decision process, characterizing uncertainty about release cost with 2 information state variables, and finding the solution using stochastic dynamic programming. For a reintroduction program of fixed length (e.g., 5 years of releases), the optimal policy in the final release year resembles the deterministic solution: release either all adults or all juveniles depending on whether the point estimate for the survival rate in question is above or below a specific threshold. But the optimal policy in the earlier release years 1) includes release of a mixture of juveniles and adults under some circumstances, and 2) recommends release of adults even when the point estimate of survival is much less than the deterministic threshold. These results show that in an iterated decision setting, the optimal decision in early years can be quite different from that in later years because of the value of learning. 

Expected effects of residual chlorine and nitrogen in sewage effluent on an estuarine pelagic ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattis, D.; Lemerise, A.; Ratick, S.

1995-12-31

The authors used physical, toxicological, and system dynamic modeling tools to estimate the probable ecological effects caused by residual chlorine and nitrogen in sewage effluent discharged into Greenwich Cove, RI, USA. An energy systems model of the pelagic ecosystem in Narragansett Bay was developed and adapted for use in Greenwich Cove. This model allowed them to assess the indirect effects on organisms in the food web that result from a direct toxic effect on a given organism. Indirect food web mediated effects were the primary mode of loss for bluefish, but not for menhaden. The authors chose gross primary production,more » the flux of carbon to the benthos, fish out-migration, and fish harvest as outcome variables indicative of different valuable ecosystem functions. Organism responses were modeled using an assumption that lethal toxic responses occur as individual organism thresholds are exceeded, and that in general thresholds are lognormally distributed in a population of mixed individuals. They performed sensitivity analyses to assess the implications of different plausible values for the probit slopes used in the model. The putative toxic damage repair rate, combined with estimates of the exposure variability for each species, determined the averaging time that was likely to be most important in producing toxicity. Temperature was an important external factor in the physical, toxicological, and ecological models. These three models can be integrated into a single model applicable to other locations and stressors given the availability of appropriate data.« less

Engendering drug problems: Materialising gender in the DUDIT and other screening and diagnostic 'apparatuses'.

PubMed

Dwyer, Robyn; Fraser, Suzanne

2017-06-01

It is widely accepted that alcohol and other drug consumption is profoundly gendered. Just where this gendering is occurring, however, remains the subject of debate. We contend that one important and overlooked site where the gendering of substance consumption and addiction is taking place is through AOD research itself: in particular, through the addiction screening and diagnostic tools designed to measure and track substance consumption and problems within populations. These tools establish key criteria and set numerical threshold scores for the identification of problems. In many of these tools, separate threshold scores for women and men are established or recommended. Drawing on Karen Barad's concept of post-humanist performativity, in this article we examine the ways in which gender itself is being materialised by these apparatuses of measurement. We focus primarily on the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test (DUDIT) tool as an exemplar of gendering processes that operate across addiction tools more broadly. We consider gendering processes operating through tools questions themselves and we also examine the quantification and legitimation processes used in establishing gender difference and the implications these have for women. We find tools rely on and reproduce narrow and marginalising assumptions about women as essentially fragile and vulnerable and simultaneously reinforce normative expectations that women sacrifice pleasure. The seemingly objective and neutral quantification processes operating in tools naturalise gender as they enact it. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sex differences in sub-clinical psychosis--results from a community study over 30 years.

PubMed

Rössler, Wulf; Hengartner, Michael P; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Haker, Helene; Angst, Jules

2012-08-01

Sex differences in schizophrenia have long been reported. They are found within almost all aspects of the disease, from incidence and prevalence, age of onset, symptomatology, and course to its psycho-social outcome. Many sex-related hypotheses have been developed about the biology, psychology, or sociology of that disease. A further approach to study sex differences would be to examine such differences in sub-clinical psychotic states as well. If factors related to full-blown psychosis were equally meaningful over the entire psychosis continuum, we should expect that "true" sex differences could also be identified in sub-clinical psychosis. Here, we studied sex differences in sub-clinical psychosis within a community cohort in Zurich, Switzerland. This population was followed for over 30 years and included males and females between the ages of 20/21 and 49/50. We applied two different measures of sub-clinical psychosis representing schizotypal signs and schizophrenia nuclear symptoms. Using cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, we found no significant sex differences in sub-clinical psychosis over time with respect to age of onset, symptomatology, course, or psycho-social outcome. Thus it appears that sex differences in psychosis manifest themselves at the high end of the continuum (full-blown schizophrenia) rather than within the sub-threshold range. Possibly males and females have separate thresholds for certain symptoms because they are differently vulnerable or exposed to various risk factors. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

PubMed

Odén, A; McCloskey, E V; Kanis, J A; Harvey, N C; Johansson, H

2015-09-01

The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

48 CFR 36.515 - Schedules for construction contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... contemplated, the contract amount is expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold, and the period of... covering other management approaches for ensuring that a contractor makes adequate progress. [48 FR 42356... Schedules for construction contracts. The contracting officer may insert the clause at 52.236-15, Schedules...

Fatigue Assessment for the Failed Bridge Deck Closure Pour at Mile Marker 43 on I-81.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

"Fatigue of reinforcing steel in concrete bridge decks has not been identified as a common failure mode. Generally, the : stress range occurring in reinforcing steel is below the fatigue threshold and infinite fatigue life can be expected. Closure po...

48 CFR 5.203 - Publicizing and response time.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... development if the proposed contract action is expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. (f) Nothing in this subpart prohibits officers or employees of agencies from responding to requests for... response times specified in paragraphs (a) through (d) of this section. Upon learning that a particular...

Analytical expression for Risken-Nummedal-Graham-Haken instability threshold in quantum cascade lasers.

PubMed

Vukovic, N; Radovanovic, J; Milanovic, V; Boiko, D L

2016-11-14

We have obtained a closed-form expression for the threshold of Risken-Nummedal-Graham-Haken (RNGH) multimode instability in a Fabry-Pérot (FP) cavity quantum cascade laser (QCL). This simple analytical expression is a versatile tool that can easily be applied in practical situations which require analysis of QCL dynamic behavior and estimation of its RNGH multimode instability threshold. Our model for a FP cavity laser accounts for the carrier coherence grating and carrier population grating as well as their relaxation due to carrier diffusion. In the model, the RNGH instability threshold is analyzed using a second-order bi-orthogonal perturbation theory and we confirm our analytical solution by a comparison with the numerical simulations. In particular, the model predicts a low RNGH instability threshold in QCLs. This agrees very well with experimental data available in the literature.

Global epidemic invasion thresholds in directed cattle subpopulation networks having source, sink, and transit nodes.

PubMed

Schumm, Phillip; Scoglio, Caterina; Zhang, Qian; Balcan, Duygu

2015-02-21

Through the characterization of a metapopulation cattle disease model on a directed network having source, transit, and sink nodes, we derive two global epidemic invasion thresholds. The first threshold defines the conditions necessary for an epidemic to successfully spread at the global scale. The second threshold defines the criteria that permit an epidemic to move out of the giant strongly connected component and to invade the populations of the sink nodes. As each sink node represents a final waypoint for cattle before slaughter, the existence of an epidemic among the sink nodes is a serious threat to food security. We find that the relationship between these two thresholds depends on the relative proportions of transit and sink nodes in the system and the distributions of the in-degrees of both node types. These analytic results are verified through numerical realizations of the metapopulation cattle model. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Discounting and decision making in the economic evaluation of health-care technologies.

PubMed

Claxton, Karl; Paulden, Mike; Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Culyer, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Discounting costs and health benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis has been the subject of recent debate - some authors suggesting a common rate for both and others suggesting a lower rate for health. We show how these views turn on key judgments of fact and value: on whether the social objective is to maximise discounted health outcomes or the present consumption value of health; on whether the budget for health care is fixed; on the expected growth in the cost-effectiveness threshold; and on the expected growth in the consumption value of health. We demonstrate that if the budget for health care is fixed and decisions are based on incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounting costs and health gains at the same rate is correct only if the threshold remains constant. Expecting growth in the consumption value of health does not itself justify differential rates but implies a lower rate for both. However, whether one believes that the objective should be the maximisation of the present value of health or the present consumption value of health, adopting the social time preference rate for consumption as the discount rate for costs and health gains is valid only under strong and implausible assumptions about values and facts. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-08-01

The large physiographic variability and the abundance of landslide and rainfall data make Italy an ideal site to investigate variations in the rainfall conditions that can result in rainfall-induced landslides. We used landslide information obtained from multiple sources and rainfall data captured by 2228 rain gauges to build a catalogue of 2309 rainfall events with - mostly shallow - landslides in Italy between January 1996 and February 2014. For each rainfall event with landslides, we reconstructed the rainfall history that presumably caused the slope failure, and we determined the corresponding rainfall duration D (in hours) and cumulated event rainfall E (in mm). Adopting a power law threshold model, we determined cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED) thresholds, at 5% exceedance probability, and their uncertainty. We defined a new national threshold for Italy, and 26 regional thresholds for environmental subdivisions based on topography, lithology, land-use, land cover, climate, and meteorology, and we used the thresholds to study the variations of the rainfall conditions that can result in landslides in different environments, in Italy. We found that the national and the environmental thresholds cover a small part of the possible DE domain. The finding supports the use of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting in Italy, but poses an empirical limitation to the possibility of defining thresholds for small geographical areas. We observed differences between some of the thresholds. With increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP), the thresholds become higher and steeper, indicating that more rainfall is needed to trigger landslides where the MAP is high than where it is low. This suggests that the landscape adjusts to the regional meteorological conditions. We also observed that the thresholds are higher for stronger rocks, and that forested areas require more rainfall than agricultural areas to initiate landslides. Finally, we observed that a 20% exceedance probability national threshold was capable of predicting all the rainfall-induced landslides with casualties between 1996 and 2014, and we suggest that this threshold can be used to forecast fatal rainfall-induced landslides in Italy. We expect the method proposed in this work to define and compare the thresholds to have an impact on the definition of new rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, and elsewhere.

Gender role expectations of pain: relationship to experimental pain perception

PubMed Central

Wise, Emily A.; Price, Donald D.; Myers, Cynthia D.; Heft, Marc W.; Robinson, Michael E.

2008-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of an individual’s Gender Role Expectations of Pain (GREP) on experimental pain report. One hundred and forty-eight subjects (87 females and 61 males) subjects underwent thermal testing and were asked to report pain threshold, pain tolerance, VAS ratings of pain intensity and unpleasantness, and a computerized visual analogue scales (VAS) rating of pain intensity during the procedure. Subjects completed the GREP questionnaire to assess sex-related stereotypic attributions of pain sensitivity, pain endurance, and willingness to report pain. Consistent with previous research, significant sex differences emerged for measures of pain threshold, pain tolerance, and pain unpleasantness. After statistically controlling for age, GREP scores were significant predictors of threshold, tolerance, and pain unpleasantness, accounting for an additional 7, 11, and 21% of the variance, respectively. Sex remained a significant predictor of pain tolerance in hierarchical regression analyses after controlling for GREP scores. Results provide support for two competing but not mutually exclusive hypotheses related to the sex differences in experimental pain. Both psychosocial factors and first-order, biological sex differences remain as viable explanations for differences in experimental pain report between the sexes. It appears that GREP do play a part in determining an individual’s pain report and may be contributing to the sex differences in the laboratory setting. PMID:11973007

Effects of diffusion on total biomass in simple metacommunities.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso; Torres, Pedro J

2018-06-14

This paper analyzes the effects of diffusion on the overall population size of the different species of a metacommunity. Depending on precise thresholds, we determine whether increasing the dispersal rate of a species has a positive or negative effect on population abundance. These thresholds depend on the interaction type of the species and the quality of the patches. The motivation for researching this issue is that spatial structure is a source of new biological insights with management interest. For instance, in a metacommunity of two competitors, the movement of a competitor could lead to a decrease of the overall population size of both species. On the other hand, we discuss when some classic results of metapopulation theory are preserved in metacommunities. Our results complement some recent experimental work by Zhang and collaborators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Faster Increases in Human Life Expectancy Could Lead to Slower Population Aging

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Counterintuitively, faster increases in human life expectancy could lead to slower population aging. The conventional view that faster increases in human life expectancy would lead to faster population aging is based on the assumption that people become old at a fixed chronological age. A preferable alternative is to base measures of aging on people’s time left to death, because this is more closely related to the characteristics that are associated with old age. Using this alternative interpretation, we show that faster increases in life expectancy would lead to slower population aging. Among other things, this finding affects the assessment of the speed at which countries will age. PMID:25876033

Modeling the Dynamics of High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer Progression for Transvaginal Ultrasound-Based Screening and Early Detection

PubMed Central

Lee, Jung-Min; Levy, Doron

2016-01-01

High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) represents the majority of ovarian cancers and accounts for the largest proportion of deaths from the disease. A timely detection of low volume HGSOC should be the goal of any screening studies. However, numerous transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) detection-based population studies aimed at detecting low-volume disease have not yielded reduced mortality rates. A quantitative invalidation of TVU as an effective HGSOC screening strategy is a necessary next step. Herein, we propose a mathematical model for a quantitative explanation on the reported failure of TVU-based screening to improve HGSOC low-volume detectability and overall survival.We develop a novel in silico mathematical assessment of the efficacy of a unimodal TVU monitoring regimen as a strategy aimed at detecting low-volume HGSOC in cancer-positive cases, defined as cases for which the inception of the first malignant cell has already occurred. Our findings show that the median window of opportunity interval length for TVU monitoring and HGSOC detection is approximately 1.76 years. This does not translate into reduced mortality levels or improved detection accuracy in an in silico cohort across multiple TVU monitoring frequencies or detection sensitivities. We demonstrate that even a semiannual, unimodal TVU monitoring protocol is expected to miss detectable HGSOC. Lastly, we find that circa 50% of the simulated HGSOC growth curves never reach the baseline detectability threshold, and that on average, 5–7 infrequent, rate-limiting stochastic changes in the growth parameters are associated with reaching HGSOC detectability and mortality thresholds respectively. Focusing on a malignancy poorly studied in the mathematical oncology community, our model captures the dynamic, temporal evolution of HGSOC progression. Our mathematical model is consistent with recent case reports and prospective TVU screening population studies, and provides support to the empirical recommendation against frequent HGSOC screening. PMID:27257824

Survival of translocated sharp-tailed grouse: Temporal threshold and age effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathews, Steven; Coates, Peter S.; Delehanty, David J.

2016-01-01

Context: The Columbian sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus columbianus) is a subspecies of conservation concern in the western United States, currently occupying ≤10% of its historic range. Land and management agencies are employing translocation techniques to restore Columbian sharp-tailed grouse (CSTG) populations. However, establishing self-sustaining populations by translocating grouse often is unsuccessful, owing, in part, to low survivorship of translocated grouse following release.Aims: We measured and modelled patterns of CSTG mortality for 150 days following translocation into historic range, to better understand patterns and causes of success or failure in conservation efforts to re-establish grouse populations.Methods: We conducted two independent multi-year translocations and evaluated individual and temporal factors associated with CSTG survival up to 150 days following their release. Both translocations were reintroduction attempts in Nevada, USA, to establish viable populations of CSTG into their historic range.Key results: We observed a clear temporal threshold in survival probability, with CSTG mortality substantially higher during the first 50 days following release than during the subsequent 100 days. Additionally, translocated yearling grouse exhibited higher overall survival (0.669 ± 0.062) than did adults (0.420 ± 0.052) across the 150-day period and higher survival than adults both before and after the 50-day temporal threshold.Conclusions: Translocated CSTG are especially vulnerable to mortality for 50 days following release, whereas translocated yearling grouse are more resistant to mortality than are adult grouse. On the basis of the likelihood of survival, yearling CSTG are better candidates for population restoration through translocation than are adult grouse.Implications: Management actions that ameliorate mortality factors for 50 days following translocation and translocations that employ yearling grouse will increase the likelihood of population establishment.

The Martian Dust Devil Electron Avalanche: Laboratory Measurements of the E-Field Fortifying Effects of Dust-Electron Absorption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, W. M.; McLain, J. L.; Collier, M. R.; Keller, J. W.

2017-01-01

Analogous to terrestrial dust devils, charged dust in Mars dust devils should become vertically stratified in the convective features, creating large scale E-fields. This E-field in a Martian-like atmosphere has been shown to stimulate the development of a Townsend discharge (electron avalanche) that acts to dissipate charge in regions where charge build-up occurs. While the stratification of the charged dust is a source of the electrical energy, the uncharged particulates in the dust population may absorb a portion of these avalanching electrons, thereby inhibiting dissipation and leading to the development of anomalously large E-field values. We performed a laboratory study that does indeed show the presence of enhanced E-field strengths between an anode and cathode when dust-absorbing filaments (acting as particulates) are placed in the avalanching electron flow. Further, the E-field threshold condition to create an impulsive spark discharge increases to larger values as more filaments are placed between the anode and cathode. We conclude that the spatially separated charged dust creates the charge centers and E-fields in a dust devil, but the under-charged portion of the population acts to reduce Townsend electron dissipation currents, further fortifying the development of larger-than-expected E-fields.

The Stochastic Modelling of Endemic Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susvitasari, Kurnia; Siswantining, Titin

2017-01-01

A study about epidemic has been conducted since a long time ago, but genuine progress was hardly forthcoming until the end of the 19th century (Bailey, 1975). Both deterministic and stochastic models were used to describe these. Then, from 1927 to 1939 Kermack and McKendrick introduced a generality of this model, including some variables to consider such as rate of infection and recovery. The purpose of this project is to investigate the behaviour of the models when we set the basic reproduction number, R0. This quantity is defined as the expected number of contacts made by a typical infective to susceptibles in the population. According to the epidemic threshold theory, when R0 ≤ 1, minor epidemic occurs with probability one in both approaches, but when R0 > 1, the deterministic and stochastic models have different interpretation. In the deterministic approach, major epidemic occurs with probability one when R0 > 1 and predicts that the disease will settle down to an endemic equilibrium. Stochastic models, on the other hand, identify that the minor epidemic can possibly occur. If it does, then the epidemic will die out quickly. Moreover, if we let the population size be large and the major epidemic occurs, then it will take off and then reach the endemic level and move randomly around the deterministic’s equilibrium.

Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dressler, Gunnar; Müller, Birgit; Frank, Karin; Kuhlicke, Christian

2016-10-01

Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

Using Survival Analysis to Improve Estimates of Life Year Gains in Policy Evaluations.

PubMed

Meacock, Rachel; Sutton, Matt; Kristensen, Søren Rud; Harrison, Mark

2017-05-01

Policy evaluations taking a lifetime horizon have converted estimated changes in short-term mortality to expected life year gains using general population life expectancy. However, the life expectancy of the affected patients may differ from the general population. In trials, survival models are commonly used to extrapolate life year gains. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility and materiality of using parametric survival models to extrapolate future survival in health care policy evaluations. We used our previous cost-effectiveness analysis of a pay-for-performance program as a motivating example. We first used the cohort of patients admitted prior to the program to compare 3 methods for estimating remaining life expectancy. We then used a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the life year gains associated with the program using general population life expectancy and survival models. Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics was utilized for patients admitted to hospitals in England for pneumonia between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 and between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2010, and linked to death records for the period from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2011. In our cohort of patients, using parametric survival models rather than general population life expectancy figures reduced the estimated mean life years remaining by 30% (9.19 v. 13.15 years, respectively). However, the estimated mean life year gains associated with the program are larger using survival models (0.380 years) compared to using general population life expectancy (0.154 years). Using general population life expectancy to estimate the impact of health care policies can overestimate life expectancy but underestimate the impact of policies on life year gains. Using a longer follow-up period improved the accuracy of estimated survival and program impact considerably.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers and two age groups in the human population.

PubMed

Beretta, Edoardo; Capasso, Vincenzo; Garao, Dario G

2018-06-01

In this paper a conceptual mathematical model of malaria transmission proposed in a previous paper has been analyzed in a deeper detail. Among its key epidemiological features of this model, two-age-classes (child and adult) and asymptomatic carriers have been included. The extra mortality of mosquitoes due to the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) has been included too. By taking advantage of the natural double time scale of the parasite and the human populations, it has been possible to provide interesting threshold results. In particular it has been shown that key parameters can be identified such that below a threshold level, built on these parameters, the epidemic tends to extinction, while above another threshold level it tends to a nontrivial endemic state, for which an interval estimate has been provided. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Release from bats: genetic distance and sensoribehavioural regression in the Pacific field cricket, Teleogryllus oceanicus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fullard, James H.; Ter Hofstede, Hannah M.; Ratcliffe, John M.; Pollack, Gerald S.; Brigidi, Gian S.; Tinghitella, Robin M.; Zuk, Marlene

2010-01-01

The auditory thresholds of the AN2 interneuron and the behavioural thresholds of the anti-bat flight-steering responses that this cell evokes are less sensitive in female Pacific field crickets that live where bats have never existed (Moorea) compared with individuals subjected to intense levels of bat predation (Australia). In contrast, the sensitivity of the auditory interneuron, ON1 which participates in the processing of both social signals and bat calls, and the thresholds for flight orientation to a model of the calling song of male crickets show few differences between the two populations. Genetic analyses confirm that the two populations are significantly distinct, and we conclude that the absence of bats has caused partial regression in the nervous control of a defensive behaviour in this insect. This study represents the first examination of natural evolutionary regression in the neural basis of a behaviour along a selection gradient within a single species.

Continuous-wave infrared optical gain and amplified spontaneous emission at ultralow threshold by colloidal HgTe quantum dots.

PubMed

Geiregat, Pieter; Houtepen, Arjan J; Sagar, Laxmi Kishore; Infante, Ivan; Zapata, Felipe; Grigel, Valeriia; Allan, Guy; Delerue, Christophe; Van Thourhout, Dries; Hens, Zeger

2018-01-01

Colloidal quantum dots (QDs) raise more and more interest as solution-processable and tunable optical gain materials. However, especially for infrared active QDs, optical gain remains inefficient. Since stimulated emission involves multifold degenerate band-edge states, population inversion can be attained only at high pump power and must compete with efficient multi-exciton recombination. Here, we show that mercury telluride (HgTe) QDs exhibit size-tunable stimulated emission throughout the near-infrared telecom window at thresholds unmatched by any QD studied before. We attribute this unique behaviour to surface-localized states in the bandgap that turn HgTe QDs into 4-level systems. The resulting long-lived population inversion induces amplified spontaneous emission under continuous-wave optical pumping at power levels compatible with solar irradiation and direct current electrical pumping. These results introduce an alternative approach for low-threshold QD-based gain media based on intentional trap states that paves the way for solution-processed infrared QD lasers and amplifiers.

Continuous-wave infrared optical gain and amplified spontaneous emission at ultralow threshold by colloidal HgTe quantum dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiregat, Pieter; Houtepen, Arjan J.; Sagar, Laxmi Kishore; Infante, Ivan; Zapata, Felipe; Grigel, Valeriia; Allan, Guy; Delerue, Christophe; van Thourhout, Dries; Hens, Zeger

2018-01-01

Colloidal quantum dots (QDs) raise more and more interest as solution-processable and tunable optical gain materials. However, especially for infrared active QDs, optical gain remains inefficient. Since stimulated emission involves multifold degenerate band-edge states, population inversion can be attained only at high pump power and must compete with efficient multi-exciton recombination. Here, we show that mercury telluride (HgTe) QDs exhibit size-tunable stimulated emission throughout the near-infrared telecom window at thresholds unmatched by any QD studied before. We attribute this unique behaviour to surface-localized states in the bandgap that turn HgTe QDs into 4-level systems. The resulting long-lived population inversion induces amplified spontaneous emission under continuous-wave optical pumping at power levels compatible with solar irradiation and direct current electrical pumping. These results introduce an alternative approach for low-threshold QD-based gain media based on intentional trap states that paves the way for solution-processed infrared QD lasers and amplifiers.

Mortality inequality in populations with equal life expectancy: Arriaga's decomposition method in SAS, Stata, and Excel.

PubMed

Auger, Nathalie; Feuillet, Pascaline; Martel, Sylvie; Lo, Ernest; Barry, Amadou D; Harper, Sam

2014-08-01

Life expectancy is used to measure population health, but large differences in mortality can be masked even when there is no life expectancy gap. We demonstrate how Arriaga's decomposition method can be used to assess inequality in mortality between populations with near equal life expectancy. We calculated life expectancy at birth for Quebec and the rest of Canada from 2005 to 2009 using life tables and partitioned the gap between both populations into age and cause-specific components using Arriaga's method. The life expectancy gap between Quebec and Canada was negligible (<0.1 years). Decomposition of the gap showed that higher lung cancer mortality in Quebec was offset by cardiovascular mortality in the rest of Canada, resulting in identical life expectancy in both groups. Lung cancer in Quebec had a greater impact at early ages, whereas cardiovascular mortality in Canada had a greater impact at older ages. Despite the absence of a gap, we demonstrate using decomposition analyses how lung cancer at early ages lowered life expectancy in Quebec, whereas cardiovascular causes at older ages lowered life expectancy in Canada. We provide SAS/Stata code and an Excel spreadsheeet to facilitate application of Arriaga's method to other settings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do You See What I See? Exploring the Consequences of Luminosity Limits in Black Hole–Galaxy Evolution Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Mackenzie L.; Hickox, Ryan C.; DiPompeo, Michael A.

In studies of the connection between active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and their host galaxies, there is widespread disagreement on some key aspects of the connection. These disagreements largely stem from a lack of understanding of the nature of the full underlying AGN population. Recent attempts to probe this connection utilize both observations and simulations to correct for a missed population, but presently are limited by intrinsic biases and complicated models. We take a simple simulation for galaxy evolution and add a new prescription for AGN activity to connect galaxy growth to dark matter halo properties and AGN activity to starmore » formation. We explicitly model selection effects to produce an “observed” AGN population for comparison with observations and empirically motivated models of the local universe. This allows us to bypass the difficulties inherent in models that attempt to infer the AGN population by inverting selection effects. We investigate the impact of selecting AGNs based on thresholds in luminosity or Eddington ratio on the “observed” AGN population. By limiting our model AGN sample in luminosity, we are able to recreate the observed local AGN luminosity function and specific star formation-stellar mass distribution, and show that using an Eddington ratio threshold introduces less bias into the sample by selecting the full range of growing black holes, despite the challenge of selecting low-mass black holes. We find that selecting AGNs using these various thresholds yield samples with different AGN host galaxy properties.« less

7 CFR 2200.11 - Government-wide debarment and suspension (nonprocurement).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... of type, expected to equal or exceed the Federal procurement small purchase threshold fixed at 10 U.S... who is debarred or suspended shall be excluded from Federal financial and nonfinancial assistance and... than a procurement contract for goods or services, regardless of type, under a primary covered...

Lethal mutagenesis: targeting the mutator phenotype in cancer.

PubMed

Fox, Edward J; Loeb, Lawrence A

2010-10-01

The evolution of cancer and RNA viruses share many similarities. Both exploit high levels of genotypic diversity to enable extensive phenotypic plasticity and thereby facilitate rapid adaptation. In order to accumulate large numbers of mutations, we have proposed that cancers express a mutator phenotype. Similar to cancer cells, many viral populations, by replicating their genomes with low fidelity, carry a substantial mutational load. As high levels of mutation are potentially deleterious, the viral mutation frequency is thresholded at a level below which viral populations equilibrate in a traditional mutation-selection balance, and above which the population is no longer viable, i.e., the population undergoes an error catastrophe. Because their mutation frequencies are fine-tuned just below this error threshold, viral populations are susceptible to further increases in mutational load and, recently this phenomenon has been exploited therapeutically by a concept that has been termed lethal mutagenesis. Here we review the application of lethal mutagenesis to the treatment of HIV and discuss how lethal mutagenesis may represent a novel therapeutic approach for the treatment of solid cancers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of emotions in the maintenance of cooperative behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chunyan; Zhang, Jianlei; Weissing, Franz J.

2014-04-01

Our attention is focused on how individual emotions influence collective behaviors, which captures an aspect of reality missing from past studies: free riders may suffer some stress, which could adapt jointly with the individual stress intensity and size of the gaming group. With an evolutionary game theoretical approach, we gain the fixation probability for one mutant cooperator to invade and dominate the whole defecting population. When the stress intensity exceeds a threshold, natural selection favors cooperators replacing defectors in a finite population. We further infer that lower stress intensity is sufficient for one mutant cooperator to become fixed with an advantageous probability in a larger population. Moreover, when the gaming group is smaller than the population size, the more the return from the public goods, the lower the threshold of stress intensity required to facilitate the full dominance of cooperators. We hope our studies may show that individual sentiments or psychological activities will open up novel explanations for the puzzle of collective actions.

Evolution of plant–pollinator mutualisms in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Gilman, R Tucker; Fabina, Nicholas S; Abbott, Karen C; Rafferty, Nicole E

2012-01-01

Climate change has the potential to desynchronize the phenologies of interdependent species, with potentially catastrophic effects on mutualist populations. Phenologies can evolve, but the role of evolution in the response of mutualisms to climate change is poorly understood. We developed a model that explicitly considers both the evolution and the population dynamics of a plant–pollinator mutualism under climate change. How the populations evolve, and thus whether the populations and the mutualism persist, depends not only on the rate of climate change but also on the densities and phenologies of other species in the community. Abundant alternative mutualist partners with broad temporal distributions can make a mutualism more robust to climate change, while abundant alternative partners with narrow temporal distributions can make a mutualism less robust. How community composition and the rate of climate change affect the persistence of mutualisms is mediated by two-species Allee thresholds. Understanding these thresholds will help researchers to identify those mutualisms at highest risk owing to climate change. PMID:25568025

Clique of Functional Hubs Orchestrates Population Bursts in Developmentally Regulated Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Luccioli, Stefano; Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Barzilai, Ari; Bonifazi, Paolo; Torcini, Alessandro

2014-01-01

It has recently been discovered that single neuron stimulation can impact network dynamics in immature and adult neuronal circuits. Here we report a novel mechanism which can explain in neuronal circuits, at an early stage of development, the peculiar role played by a few specific neurons in promoting/arresting the population activity. For this purpose, we consider a standard neuronal network model, with short-term synaptic plasticity, whose population activity is characterized by bursting behavior. The addition of developmentally inspired constraints and correlations in the distribution of the neuronal connectivities and excitabilities leads to the emergence of functional hub neurons, whose stimulation/deletion is critical for the network activity. Functional hubs form a clique, where a precise sequential activation of the neurons is essential to ignite collective events without any need for a specific topological architecture. Unsupervised time-lagged firings of supra-threshold cells, in connection with coordinated entrainments of near-threshold neurons, are the key ingredients to orchestrate population activity. PMID:25255443

Climate change induced heat wave hazard in eastern Africa: Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capuano, Paolo; Sellerino, Mariangela; Di Ruocco, Angela; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

Last decades, new records were set in the world for tornadoes, drought, wind, floods, wildfires and hot temperatures, testifying unusual weather and climate patterns with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Extreme heat events are natural hazards affecting many regions in the world, nevertheless limited work has been done on the analysis and effects of extreme heat events in Africa, that is considered a continent particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In fact, the increase of temperature expected in the African continent during the 21st century is larger than the global mean warming, being about 3° to 4° C, about 1.5 times the global temperature increase (Christensen et al., 2007; Gualdi et al., 2012), with the subtropical regions projected to warm more than the tropical regions. Observations and downscaled model simulations (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC scenarios) are analyzed to describe heat wave characteristics in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), spanning the last five decades as well as that projected for the 21st century. Observed data are daily maximum and minimum temperature collected in the period 1961-2011; downscaled model simulations span up to 2050. Heat waves are defined following a peak over threshold approach by statistical comparison to historical meteorological baselines (site dependent), using a fixed absolute threshold. Projected future warming in the Dar es Salaam and Addis Ababa shows a further increase in the heat waves parameters. Heat wave duration and hot days number are strictly correlated showing that the temperature rise could generate not only an increase of heat waves number but mainly a longer average duration, that can strongly affect the resilience capacity of the population, particularly the elder people. In fact, the impacts of heat waves on the society are determined also by temporal duration (Stephenson, 2008), in addition to their frequency, in fact the capacity of adaptation can be reduced with prolonged exposure to high temperature and humidity. The expected persistence of long-lived heat waves lasting approximately 1.5-2 weeks is clearly longer with respect to the climatological period (1961-1990). During 100 years, short lived but more intense waves are more than doubled in duration. It is evident the needs for the national health services to develop strategies for the mitigation of the heat wave effects, to enhance the resilience of the population, particularly the elder people.

How common is self-incompatibility across species of the herkogamous genus Ariocarpus?

PubMed

Martínez-Peralta, Concepción; Márquez-Guzmán, Judith; Mandujano, María C

2014-03-01

Self-incompatibility (SI), the most effective mechanism to prevent selfing, may limit the number of compatible mates in populations. The seven species of Ariocarpus are endangered and predominantly outcrossers but fruit set may reach 1-20% after selfing. We aimed to determine whether SI is the underlying mechanism influencing mating in Ariocarpus species. We characterized the presence/absence of SI using pollination treatments (self-pollination, cross-pollination, natural pollination) in one population per species. We assessed SI using epifluorescence and generalized linear models (GLMs) to compare the presence of pollen tubes in the stigma, stylar transmitting tissue, and ovary among self- and cross-pollinated pistils 48 h after pollination. Following the same treatments, production of fruit set was noted and related to pollen tube growth. Pollen tubes were found more frequently in the ovaries of natural and cross-pollinated flowers than in ovaries of self-pollinated. Stylar rejection of self-pollen indicated gametophytic SI, although pollen tubes reached the ovaries in six species (4-33% of pistils). Fruit set was lower after hand-pollinations than expected from pollen tube observations. The low percentages of self-compatibility in all species in pollen tube growth and pollination experiments indicated that no species had complete self-sterility, suggesting the presence of partial SI. Reduced fruit set relative to pollen tube production could result from a threshold of insufficient pollination, early-acting inbreeding depression, or resource limitation. The origin of partial SI in Ariocarpus could respond to pressures such as pollen limitation and population size.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

High genetic diversity and demographic history of captive Siamese and Saltwater crocodiles suggest the first step toward the establishment of a breeding and reintroduction program in Thailand

PubMed Central

Lapbenjakul, Sorravis; Thapana, Watcharaporn; Twilprawat, Panupon; Muangmai, Narongrit; Kanchanaketu, Thiti; Temsiripong, Yosapong; Unajak, Sasimanas; Peyachoknagul, Surin

2017-01-01

The Siamese crocodile (Crocodylus siamensis) and Saltwater crocodile (C. porosus) are two of the most endangered animals in Thailand. Their numbers have been reduced severely by hunting and habitat fragmentation. A reintroduction plan involving captive-bred populations that are used commercially is important and necessary as a conservation strategy to aid in the recovery of wild populations. Here, the genetic diversity and population structure of 69 individual crocodiles, mostly members of captive populations, were analyzed using both mitochondrial D-loop DNA and microsatellite markers. The overall haplotype diversity was 0.924–0.971 and the mean expected heterozygosity across 22 microsatellite loci was 0.578–0.701 for the two species. This agreed with the star-like shaped topology of the haplotype network, which suggests a high level of genetic diversity. The mean ratio of the number of alleles to the allelic range (M ratio) for the populations of both species was considerably lower than the threshold of 0.68, which was interpreted as indicative of a historical genetic bottleneck. Microsatellite markers provided evidence of introgression for three individual crocodiles, which suggest that hybridization might have occurred between C. siamensis and C. porosus. D-loop sequence analysis detected bi-directional hybridization between male and female individuals of the parent species. Therefore, identification of genetically non-hybrid and hybrid individuals is important for long-term conservation management. Relatedness values were low within the captive populations, which supported their genetic integrity and the viability of a breeding and reintroduction management plan. This work constitutes the first step in establishing an appropriate source population from a scientifically managed perspective for an in situ/ex situ conservation program and reintroduction of crocodile individuals to the wild in Thailand. PMID:28953895

Gender-specific effects of emotional modulation on visual temporal order thresholds.

PubMed

Liang, Wei; Zhang, Jiyuan; Bao, Yan

2015-09-01

Emotions affect temporal information processing in the low-frequency time window of a few seconds, but little is known about their effect in the high-frequency domain of some tens of milliseconds. The present study aims to investigate whether negative and positive emotional states influence the ability to discriminate the temporal order of visual stimuli, and whether gender plays a role in temporal processing. Due to the hemispheric lateralization of emotion, a hemispheric asymmetry between the left and the right visual field might be expected. Using a block design, subjects were primed with neutral, negative and positive emotional pictures before performing temporal order judgment tasks. Results showed that male subjects exhibited similarly reduced order thresholds under negative and positive emotional states, while female subjects demonstrated increased threshold under positive emotional state and reduced threshold under negative emotional state. Besides, emotions influenced female subjects more intensely than male subjects, and no hemispheric lateralization was observed. These observations indicate an influence of emotional states on temporal order processing of visual stimuli, and they suggest a gender difference, which is possibly associated with a different emotional stability.

The Topo-trigger: a new concept of stereo trigger system for imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Coto, R.; Mazin, D.; Paoletti, R.; Blanch Bigas, O.; Cortina, J.

2016-04-01

Imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs) such as the Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) telescopes endeavor to reach the lowest possible energy threshold. In doing so the trigger system is a key element. Reducing the trigger threshold is hampered by the rapid increase of accidental triggers generated by ambient light (the so-called Night Sky Background NSB). In this paper we present a topological trigger, dubbed Topo-trigger, which rejects events on the basis of their relative orientation in the telescope cameras. We have simulated and tested the trigger selection algorithm in the MAGIC telescopes. The algorithm was tested using MonteCarlo simulations and shows a rejection of 85% of the accidental stereo triggers while preserving 99% of the gamma rays. A full implementation of this trigger system would achieve an increase in collection area between 10 and 20% at the energy threshold. The analysis energy threshold of the instrument is expected to decrease by ~ 8%. The selection algorithm was tested on real MAGIC data taken with the current trigger configuration and no γ-like events were found to be lost.

Fluence thresholds for grazing incidence hard x-ray mirrors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aquila, A.; Ozkan, C.; Sinn, H.

2015-06-15

X-ray Free Electron Lasers (XFELs) have the potential to contribute to many fields of science and to enable many new avenues of research, in large part due to their orders of magnitude higher peak brilliance than existing and future synchrotrons. To best exploit this peak brilliance, these XFEL beams need to be focused to appropriate spot sizes. However, the survivability of X-ray optical components in these intense, femtosecond radiation conditions is not guaranteed. As mirror optics are routinely used at XFEL facilities, a physical understanding of the interaction between intense X-ray pulses and grazing incidence X-ray optics is desirable. Wemore » conducted single shot damage threshold fluence measurements on grazing incidence X-ray optics, with coatings of ruthenium and boron carbide, at the SPring-8 Angstrom compact free electron laser facility using 7 and 12 keV photon energies. The damage threshold dose limits were found to be orders of magnitude higher than would naively be expected. The incorporation of energy transport and dissipation via keV level energetic photoelectrons accounts for the observed damage threshold.« less

A flexible cure rate model with dependent censoring and a known cure threshold.

PubMed

Bernhardt, Paul W

2016-11-10

We propose a flexible cure rate model that accommodates different censoring distributions for the cured and uncured groups and also allows for some individuals to be observed as cured when their survival time exceeds a known threshold. We model the survival times for the uncured group using an accelerated failure time model with errors distributed according to the seminonparametric distribution, potentially truncated at a known threshold. We suggest a straightforward extension of the usual expectation-maximization algorithm approach for obtaining estimates in cure rate models to accommodate the cure threshold and dependent censoring. We additionally suggest a likelihood ratio test for testing for the presence of dependent censoring in the proposed cure rate model. We show through numerical studies that our model has desirable properties and leads to approximately unbiased parameter estimates in a variety of scenarios. To demonstrate how our method performs in practice, we analyze data from a bone marrow transplantation study and a liver transplant study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Frequency modulation television analysis: Threshold impulse analysis. [with computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodge, W. H.

1973-01-01

A computer program is developed to calculate the FM threshold impulse rates as a function of the carrier-to-noise ratio for a specified FM system. The system parameters and a vector of 1024 integers, representing the probability density of the modulating voltage, are required as input parameters. The computer program is utilized to calculate threshold impulse rates for twenty-four sets of measured probability data supplied by NASA and for sinusoidal and Gaussian modulating waveforms. As a result of the analysis several conclusions are drawn: (1) The use of preemphasis in an FM television system improves the threshold by reducing the impulse rate. (2) Sinusoidal modulation produces a total impulse rate which is a practical upper bound for the impulse rates of TV signals providing the same peak deviations. (3) As the moment of the FM spectrum about the center frequency of the predetection filter increases, the impulse rate tends to increase. (4) A spectrum having an expected frequency above (below) the center frequency of the predetection filter produces a higher negative (positive) than positive (negative) impulse rate.

Pressure Effects on Oxygen Concentration Flammability Thresholds of Materials for Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirsch, David; Williams, Jim; Beeson, Harold

2006-01-01

Spacecraft materials selection is based on an upward flammability test conducted in a quiescent environment in the highest-expected oxygen-concentration environment. However, NASA s advanced space exploration program is anticipating using various habitable environments. Because limited data is available to support current program requirements, a different test logic is suggested to address these expanded atmospheric environments through the determination of materials self-extinguishment limits. This paper provides additional pressure effects data on oxygen concentration and partial pressure self-extinguishment limits under quiescent conditions. For the range of total pressures tested, the oxygen concentration and oxygen partial pressure flammability thresholds show a near linear function of total pressure. The oxygen concentration/oxygen partial pressure flammability thresholds depend on the total pressure and appear to increase with increasing oxygen concentration (and oxygen partial pressure). For the Constellation Program, the flammability threshold information will allow NASA to identify materials with increased flammability risk because of oxygen concentration and total pressure changes, minimize potential impacts, and allow for development of sound requirements for new spacecraft and extraterrestrial landers and habitats.

Cost-effectiveness of first-line erlotinib in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer unsuitable for chemotherapy

PubMed Central

Khan, Iftekhar; Morris, Stephen; Hackshaw, Allan; Lee, Siow-Ming

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the cost-effectiveness of erlotinib versus supportive care (placebo) overall and within a predefined rash subgroup in elderly patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer who are unfit for chemotherapy and receive only active supportive care due to their poor performance status or presence of comorbidities. Setting Between 2005 and 2009, a total of 670 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were randomised across 78 hospital sites (centres) in the UK. Participants 670 patients with pathologically confirmed stage IIIb-IV NSCLC, unfit for chemotherapy, predominantly poor performance status (>2 on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, ECOG) and estimated life expectancy of at least 8 weeks. Patients were followed until disease progression or death, including a subgroup of patients who developed first cycle rash. Interventions Patients were randomised (1:1) to receive best supportive care plus oral placebo or erlotinib (150 mg/day) until disease progression, toxicity or death. Primary outcome Overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes Progression-free survival (PFS), tumour response and quality adjusted life years (QALY), including within prespecified subgroups. Results The mean incremental cost per QALY in all patients was £202 571/QALY. The probability of cost-effectiveness of erlotinib in all patients was <10% at thresholds up to £100 000. However, within the rash subgroup, the incremental cost/QALY was £56 770/QALY with a probability of cost-effectiveness of about 80% for cost-effectiveness thresholds between £50 000 to £60 000. Conclusions Erlotinib has about 80% chance of being cost-effective at thresholds between £50 000–£60 000 in a subset of elderly poor performance patients with NSCLC unfit for chemotherapy who develop first cycle (28 days) rash. Erlotinib is potentially cost-effective for this population, for which few treatment options apart from best supportive care are available. Trial registration number (ISCRTN): 77383050. PMID:26137881

Influence of aging on thermal and vibratory thresholds of quantitative sensory testing.

PubMed

Lin, Yea-Huey; Hsieh, Song-Chou; Chao, Chi-Chao; Chang, Yang-Chyuan; Hsieh, Sung-Tsang

2005-09-01

Quantitative sensory testing has become a common approach to evaluate thermal and vibratory thresholds in various types of neuropathies. To understand the effect of aging on sensory perception, we measured warm, cold, and vibratory thresholds by performing quantitative sensory testing on a population of 484 normal subjects (175 males and 309 females), aged 48.61 +/- 14.10 (range 20-86) years. Sensory thresholds of the hand and foot were measured with two algorithms: the method of limits (Limits) and the method of level (Level). Thresholds measured by Limits are reaction-time-dependent, while those measured by Level are independent of reaction time. In addition, we explored (1) the correlations of thresholds between these two algorithms, (2) the effect of age on differences in thresholds between algorithms, and (3) differences in sensory thresholds between the two test sites. Age was consistently and significantly correlated with sensory thresholds of all tested modalities measured by both algorithms on multivariate regression analysis compared with other factors, including gender, body height, body weight, and body mass index. When thresholds were plotted against age, slopes differed between sensory thresholds of the hand and those of the foot: for the foot, slopes were steeper compared with those for the hand for each sensory modality. Sensory thresholds of both test sites measured by Level were highly correlated with those measured by Limits, and thresholds measured by Limits were higher than those measured by Level. Differences in sensory thresholds between the two algorithms were also correlated with age: thresholds of the foot were higher than those of the hand for each sensory modality. This difference in thresholds (measured with both Level and Limits) between the hand and foot was also correlated with age. These findings suggest that age is the most significant factor in determining sensory thresholds compared with the other factors of gender and anthropometric parameters, and this provides a foundation for investigating the neurobiologic significance of aging on the processing of sensory stimuli.

On thermonuclear ignition criterion at the National Ignition Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Baolian; Kwan, Thomas J. T.; Wang, Yi-Ming

2014-10-15

Sustained thermonuclear fusion at the National Ignition Facility remains elusive. Although recent experiments approached or exceeded the anticipated ignition thresholds, the nuclear performance of the laser-driven capsules was well below predictions in terms of energy and neutron production. Such discrepancies between expectations and reality motivate a reassessment of the physics of ignition. We have developed a predictive analytical model from fundamental physics principles. Based on the model, we obtained a general thermonuclear ignition criterion in terms of the areal density and temperature of the hot fuel. This newly derived ignition threshold and its alternative forms explicitly show the minimum requirementsmore » of the hot fuel pressure, mass, areal density, and burn fraction for achieving ignition. Comparison of our criterion with existing theories, simulations, and the experimental data shows that our ignition threshold is more stringent than those in the existing literature and that our results are consistent with the experiments.« less

Scaling properties of ballistic nano-transistors

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Recently, we have suggested a scale-invariant model for a nano-transistor. In agreement with experiments a close-to-linear thresh-old trace was found in the calculated ID - VD-traces separating the regimes of classically allowed transport and tunneling transport. In this conference contribution, the relevant physical quantities in our model and its range of applicability are discussed in more detail. Extending the temperature range of our studies it is shown that a close-to-linear thresh-old trace results at room temperatures as well. In qualitative agreement with the experiments the ID - VG-traces for small drain voltages show thermally activated transport below the threshold gate voltage. In contrast, at large drain voltages the gate-voltage dependence is weaker. As can be expected in our relatively simple model, the theoretical drain current is larger than the experimental one by a little less than a decade. PMID:21711899

[Natural history of occupational hearing loss induced by noise].

PubMed

de Almeida, S I; Albernaz, P L; Zaia, P A; Xavier, O G; Karazawa, E H

2000-01-01

To evaluate the clinical and audiometric characteristics of occupational hearing loss induced by noise, according to age and time of exposition in years. 222 patients with occupational sensorineural hearing loss induced by noise were studied retrospectively, correlating the auditive clinical claims, alterations of audiometric thresholds at frequencies of 250 Hz to 8000 Hz, speech discrimination indicator with age and time of exposure. As a control group were used the audiometric threshold of a population of same medium age, without morbid antecedents of hearing illness, as preconized by ISO 1999 (1990). The group were divided into subgroups and three decades of exposure were analyzed. It was verified that the clinical claims of hipoacusia increases according to the age and time of exposure. The frequency of tinnitus is constant. The audiometric thresholds in the second decade of exposure present variations that depend on the age. The several audiometric curves are parallel, but they are not horizontal. The worst thresholds were found in the high frequencies from 3000 Hz to 8000 Hz, as a clinical and physiopathological consequences of the commitment of basal areas of cochlea. The speech discrimination showed to be worst according to the increase of age and time of exposure. Patients with hearing loss disacusia induced by occupational noise present characteristic audiometric thresholds that vary according to age and time of exposure to noise. These characteristics defined and resumed in audiometric curves can constitute a standard of comparison, evaluation and control for exposed populations.

Evaluation of different radon guideline values based on characterization of ecological risk and visualization of lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Branion-Calles, Michael C; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Henderson, Sarah B

2015-11-19

There is no safe concentration of radon gas, but guideline values provide threshold concentrations that are used to map areas at higher risk. These values vary between different regions, countries, and organizations, which can lead to differential classification of risk. For example the World Health Organization suggests a 100 Bq m(-3)value, while Health Canada recommends 200 Bq m(-3). Our objective was to describe how different thresholds characterized ecological radon risk and their visual association with lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada. Eight threshold values between 50 and 600 Bq m(-3) were identified, and classes of radon vulnerability were defined based on whether the observed 95(th) percentile radon concentration was above or below each value. A balanced random forest algorithm was used to model vulnerability, and the results were mapped. We compared high vulnerability areas, their estimated populations, and differences in lung cancer mortality trends stratified by smoking prevalence and sex. Classification accuracy improved as the threshold concentrations decreased and the area classified as high vulnerability increased. Majority of the population lived within areas of lower vulnerability regardless of the threshold value. Thresholds as low as 50 Bq m(-3) were associated with higher lung cancer mortality, even in areas with low smoking prevalence. Temporal trends in lung cancer mortality were increasing for women, while decreasing for men. Radon contributes to lung cancer in British Columbia. The results of the study contribute evidence supporting the use of a reference level lower than the current guideline of 200 Bq m(-3) for the province.

At-risk and intervention thresholds of occupational stress using a visual analogue scale

PubMed Central

Pereira, Bruno; Moustafa, Farès; Naughton, Geraldine; Lesage, François-Xavier; Lambert, Céline

2017-01-01

Background The visual analogue scale (VAS) is widely used in clinical practice by occupational physicians to assess perceived stress in workers. However, a single cut-off (black-or-white decision) inadequately discriminates between workers with and without stress. We explored an innovative statistical approach to distinguish an at-risk population among stressed workers, and to establish a threshold over which an action is urgently required, via the use of two cut-offs. Methods Participants were recruited during annual work medical examinations by a random sample of workers from five occupational health centres. We previously proposed a single cut-off of VAS stress in comparison with the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS14). Similar methodology was used in the current study, along with a gray zone approach. The lower limit of the gray zone supports sensitivity (“at-risk” threshold; interpreted as requiring closer surveillance) and the upper limit supports specificity (i.e. “intervention” threshold–emergency action required). Results We included 500 workers (49.6% males), aged 40±11 years, with a PSS14 score of 3.8±1.4 and a VAS score of 4.0±2.4. Using a receiver operating characteristic curve and the PSS cut-off score of 7.2, the optimal VAS threshold was 6.8 (sensitivity = 0.89, specificity = 0.87). The lower and upper thresholds of the gray zone were 5 and 8.2, respectively. Conclusions We identified two clinically relevant cut-offs on the VAS of stress: a first cut-off of 5.0 for an at-risk population, and a second cut-off of 8.2 over which an action is urgently required. Future investigations into the relationships between this upper threshold and deleterious events are required. PMID:28586383

Assessment of multi-pulse laser-induced damage threshold of metallic mirrors for Thomson scattering system.

PubMed

Sato, Masaya; Kajita, Shin; Yasuhara, Ryo; Ohno, Noriyasu; Tokitani, Masayuki; Yoshida, Naoaki; Tawara, Yuzuru

2013-04-22

Multi-pulse laser-induced damage threshold (LIDT) was experimentally investigated up to ~10(6) pulses for Cu, Ag mirrors. The surface roughness and the hardness dependence on the LIDT were also examined. The LIDT of OFHC-Cu decreased with the pulse number and was 1.0 J/cm(2) at 1.8 × 10(6) pulses. The expected LIDT of cutting Ag at 10(7) pulses was the highest; Ag mirror would be one of the best choices for ITER Thomson scattering system. For the roughness and hardness, material dependences of LIDT are discussed with experimental results.

A renewal jump-diffusion process with threshold dividend strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Wu, Rong; Song, Min

2009-06-01

In this paper, we consider a jump-diffusion risk process with the threshold dividend strategy. Both the distributions of the inter-arrival times and the claims are assumed to be in the class of phase-type distributions. The expected discounted dividend function and the Laplace transform of the ruin time are discussed. Motivated by Asmussen [S. Asmussen, Stationary distributions for fluid flow models with or without Brownian noise, Stochastic Models 11 (1) (1995) 21-49], instead of studying the original process, we study the constructed fluid flow process and their closed-form formulas are obtained in terms of matrix expression. Finally, numerical results are provided to illustrate the computation.

Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2016-07-01

Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

Transient survey rates for orphan afterglows from compact merger jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Gavin P.; Tanaka, Masaomi; Kobayashi, Shiho

2018-06-01

Orphan afterglows from short γ-ray bursts (GRBs) are potential candidates for electromagnetic (EM) counterpart searches to gravitational wave (GW) detected neutron star or neutron star black hole mergers. Various jet dynamical and structure models have been proposed that can be tested by the detection of a large sample of GW-EM counterparts. We make predictions for the expected rate of optical transients from these jet models for future survey telescopes, without a GW or GRB trigger. A sample of merger jets is generated in the redshift limits 0 ≤ z ≤ 3.0, and the expected peak r-band flux and time-scale above the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) or Zwicky Transient Factory (ZTF) detection threshold, mr = 24.5 and 20.4, respectively, is calculated. General all-sky rates are shown for mr ≤ 26.0 and mr ≤ 21.0. The detected orphan and GRB afterglow rate depends on jet model, typically 16≲ R≲ 76 yr-1 for the LSST, and 2≲ R ≲ 8 yr-1 for ZTF. An excess in the rate of orphan afterglows for a survey to a depth of mr ≤ 26 would indicate that merger jets have a dominant low-Lorentz factor population, or the jets exhibit intrinsic jet structure. Careful filtering of transients is required to successfully identify orphan afterglows from either short- or long-GRB progenitors.

Size and stochasticity in irrigated social-ecological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puy, Arnald; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Balbo, Andrea L.

2017-03-01

This paper presents a systematic study of the relation between the size of irrigation systems and the management of uncertainty. We specifically focus on studying, through a stylized theoretical model, how stochasticity in water availability and taxation interacts with the stochastic behavior of the population within irrigation systems. Our results indicate the existence of two key population thresholds for the sustainability of any irrigation system: or the critical population size required to keep the irrigation system operative, and N* or the population threshold at which the incentive to work inside the irrigation system equals the incentives to work elsewhere. Crossing irretrievably leads to system collapse. N* is the population level with a sub-optimal per capita payoff towards which irrigation systems tend to gravitate. When subjected to strong stochasticity in water availability or taxation, irrigation systems might suffer sharp population drops and irreversibly disintegrate into a system collapse, via a mechanism we dub ‘collapse trap’. Our conceptual study establishes the basis for further work aiming at appraising the dynamics between size and stochasticity in irrigation systems, whose understanding is key for devising mitigation and adaptation measures to ensure their sustainability in the face of increasing and inevitable uncertainty.

Population exposure to trace elements in the Kilembe copper mine area, Western Uganda: A pilot study.

PubMed

Mwesigye, Abraham R; Young, Scott D; Bailey, Elizabeth H; Tumwebaze, Susan B

2016-12-15

The mining and processing of copper in Kilembe, Western Uganda, from 1956 to 1982 left over 15 Mt. of tailings containing cupriferous and cobaltiferous pyrite dumped within a mountain river valley. This pilot study was conducted to assess the nature and extent of risk to local populations from metal contamination arising from those mining activities. We determined trace element concentrations in mine tailings, soils, locally cultivated foods, house dust, drinking water and human biomarkers (toenails) using ICP-MS analysis of acid digested samples. The results showed that tailings, containing higher concentrations of Co, Cu, Ni and As compared with world average crust values had eroded and contaminated local soils. Pollution load indices revealed that 51% of agricultural soils sampled were contaminated with trace elements. Local water supplies were contaminated, with Co concentrations that exceeded Wisconsin (US) thresholds in 25% of domestic water supplies and 40% of Nyamwamba river water samples. Zinc exceeded WHO/FAO thresholds of 99.4mgkg -1 in 36% of Amaranthus vegetable samples, Cu exceeded EC thresholds of 20mgkg -1 in 19% of Amaranthus while Pb exceeded WHO thresholds of 0.3mgkg -1 in 47% of Amaranthus vegetables. In bananas, 20% of samples contained Pb concentrations that exceeded the WHO/FAO recommended threshold of 0.3mgkg -1 . However, risk assessment of local foods and water, based on hazard quotients (HQ values) revealed no potential health effects. The high external contamination of volunteers' toenails with some elements (even after a washing process) calls into question their use as a biomarker for metal exposure in human populations where feet are frequently exposed to soil dust. Any mitigation of Kilembe mine impacts should be aimed at remediation of agricultural soils, regulating the discharge of underground contaminated water but also containment of tailing erosion. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Temperature on the Histotripsy Intrinsic Threshold for Cavitation.

PubMed

Vlaisavljevich, Eli; Xu, Zhen; Maxwell, Adam; Mancia, Lauren; Zhang, Xi; Lin, Kuang-Wei; Duryea, Alexander; Sukovich, Jonathan; Hall, Tim; Johnsen, Eric; Cain, Charles

2016-05-10

Histotripsy is an ultrasound ablation method that depends on the initiation of a dense cavitation bubble cloud to fractionate soft tissue. Previous work has demonstrated that a cavitation cloud can be formed by a single acoustic pulse with one high amplitude negative cycle, when the negative pressure amplitude exceeds a threshold intrinsic to the medium. The intrinsic thresholds in soft tissues and tissue phantoms that are water-based are similar to the intrinsic threshold of water over an experimentally verified frequency range of 0.3-3 MHz. Previous work studying the histotripsy intrinsic threshold has been limited to experiments performed at room temperature (~20°C). In this study, we investigate the effects of temperature on the histotripsy intrinsic threshold in water, which is essential to accurately predict the intrinsic thresholds expected over the full range of in vivo therapeutic temperatures. Based on previous work studying the histotripsy intrinsic threshold and classical nucleation theory, we hypothesize that the intrinsic threshold will decrease with increasing temperature. To test this hypothesis, the intrinsic threshold in water was investigated both experimentally and theoretically. The probability of generating cavitation bubbles was measured by applying a single pulse with one high amplitude negative cycle at 1 MHz to distilled, degassed water at temperatures ranging from 10°C-90°C. Cavitation was detected and characterized by passive cavitation detection and high-speed photography, from which the probability of cavitation was measured vs. pressure amplitude. The results indicate that the intrinsic threshold (the negative pressure at which the cavitation probability=0.5) significantly decreases with increasing temperature, showing a nearly linear decreasing trend from 29.8±0.4 MPa at 10˚C to 14.9±1.4 MPa at 90˚C. Overall, the results of this study support our hypothesis that the intrinsic threshold is highly dependent upon the temperature of the medium, which may allow for better predictions of cavitation generation at body temperature in vivo and at the elevated temperatures commonly seen in high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) regimes.

Effects of Temperature on the Histotripsy Intrinsic Threshold for Cavitation

PubMed Central

Vlaisavljevich, Eli; Xu, Zhen; Maxwell, Adam; Mancia, Lauren; Zhang, Xi; Lin, Kuang-Wei; Duryea, Alexander; Sukovich, Jonathan; Hall, Tim; Johnsen, Eric; Cain, Charles

2018-01-01

Histotripsy is an ultrasound ablation method that depends on the initiation of a dense cavitation bubble cloud to fractionate soft tissue. Previous work has demonstrated that a cavitation cloud can be formed by a single acoustic pulse with one high amplitude negative cycle, when the negative pressure amplitude exceeds a threshold intrinsic to the medium. The intrinsic thresholds in soft tissues and tissue phantoms that are water-based are similar to the intrinsic threshold of water over an experimentally verified frequency range of 0.3–3 MHz. Previous work studying the histotripsy intrinsic threshold has been limited to experiments performed at room temperature (~ 20°C). In this study, we investigate the effects of temperature on the histotripsy intrinsic threshold in water, which is essential to accurately predict the intrinsic thresholds expected over the full range of in vivo therapeutic temperatures. Based on previous work studying the histotripsy intrinsic threshold and classical nucleation theory, we hypothesize that the intrinsic threshold will decrease with increasing temperature. To test this hypothesis, the intrinsic threshold in water was investigated both experimentally and theoretically. The probability of generating cavitation bubbles was measured by applying a single pulse with one high amplitude negative cycle at 1 MHz to distilled, degassed water at temperatures ranging from 10°C–90°C. Cavitation was detected and characterized by passive cavitation detection and high-speed photography, from which the probability of cavitation was measured vs. pressure amplitude. The results indicate that the intrinsic threshold (the negative pressure at which the cavitation probability = 0.5) significantly decreases with increasing temperature, showing a nearly linear decreasing trend from 29.8±0.4 MPa at 10°C to 14.9±1.4 MPa at 90°C. Overall, the results of this study support our hypothesis that the intrinsic threshold is highly dependent upon the temperature of the medium, which may allow for better predictions of cavitation generation at body temperature in vivo and at the elevated temperatures commonly seen in high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) regimes. PMID:28113706

Surface Runoff Threshold Responses to Rainfall Intensity, Scale, and Land Use Type, Change and Disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaskar, A.; Kampf, S. K.; Green, T. R.; Wilson, C.; Wagenbrenner, J.; Erksine, R. H.

2017-12-01

The dominance of infiltration-excess (Hortonian) overland flow can be determined by how well a rainfall intensity threshold predicts streamflow response. Areas in which we would expect infiltration-excess overland flow to dominate include urban, bedrock, desert pavement, and lands disturbed by vegetation removal (e.g., after a fire burn or fallow agricultural lands). Using a transferable method of identifying the existence of thresholds, we compare the following sites to investigate their hydrologic responses to 60-minute rainfall intensities: desert pavement sites in Arizona (Walnut Gulch and Yuma Proving Ground), post-fire sites in a forested, mountainous burn area in north-central Colorado (High Park Fire), an area of northeastern Colorado Plains that has transitioned from dryland agriculture to conservation reserve (Drake Farm), and watersheds in suburban Baltimore, Maryland which range from less than 5% to over 50% impervious surface cover. We observed that at desert sites, the necessary threshold of rainfall intensity to produce flow increased with watershed size. In burned watersheds, watershed size did not have a clear effect on rainfall thresholds, but thresholds increased with time after burning, with streamflow no longer exhibiting clear threshold responses after the third year post-fire. At the agricultural site, the frequency of runoff events decreased during the transition from cultivated crops to mixed perennial native grasses. In an area where the natural land cover (forested) would be not dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow, urbanization greatly lowered the rainfall thresholds needed for hydrologic response. This work contributes to building a predictive framework for identifying what naturally-occurring landscapes are dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow, and how land use change could shift the dominance of infiltration-excess overland flow. Characterizing the driving mechanism for streamflow generation will allow better prediction of hydrologic response to rainfall events.

A novel approach to estimation of the time to biomarker threshold: applications to HIV.

PubMed

Reddy, Tarylee; Molenberghs, Geert; Njagi, Edmund Njeru; Aerts, Marc

2016-11-01

In longitudinal studies of biomarkers, an outcome of interest is the time at which a biomarker reaches a particular threshold. The CD4 count is a widely used marker of human immunodeficiency virus progression. Because of the inherent variability of this marker, a single CD4 count below a relevant threshold should be interpreted with caution. Several studies have applied persistence criteria, designating the outcome as the time to the occurrence of two consecutive measurements less than the threshold. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the time to attainment of two consecutive CD4 counts less than a meaningful threshold, which takes into account the patient-specific trajectory and measurement error. An expression for the expected time to threshold is presented, which is a function of the fixed effects, random effects and residual variance. We present an application to human immunodeficiency virus-positive individuals from a seroprevalent cohort in Durban, South Africa. Two thresholds are examined, and 95% bootstrap confidence intervals are presented for the estimated time to threshold. Sensitivity analysis revealed that results are robust to truncation of the series and variation in the number of visits considered for most patients. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the estimated times for patients who exhibit very slow rates of decline and patients who have less than three measurements. We also discuss the relevance of the methodology to the study of other diseases and present such applications. We demonstrate that the method proposed is computationally efficient and offers more flexibility than existing frameworks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The characteristics of vibrotactile perception threshold among shipyard workers in a tropical environment.

PubMed

Tamrin, Shamsul Bahri Mohd; Jamalohdin, Mohd Nazri; Ng, Yee Guan; Maeda, Setsuo; Ali, Nurul Asyiqin Mohd

2012-01-01

The objectives of this study are to determine the prevalence of hand-arm vibration syndrome (HAVS) and the characteristics of the vibrotactile perception threshold (VPT) among users of hand-held vibrating tools working in a tropical environment. A cross sectional study was done among 47 shipyard workers using instruments and a questionnaire to determine HAVS related symptoms. The vibration acceleration magnitude was determined using a Human Vibration Meter (Maestro). A P8 Pallesthesiometer (EMSON-MAT, Poland) was used to determine the VPT of index and little finger at frequencies of 31.5 Hz and 125 Hz. The mean reference threshold shift was determined from the reference threshold shift derived from the VPT value. The results show a moderate prevalence of HAVS (49%) among the shipyard workers. They were exposed to the same high intensity level of HAVS (mean = 4.19 ± 1.94 m/s(2)) from the use of vibrating hand-held tools. The VPT values were found to be higher for both fingers and both frequencies (index, 31.5 Hz = 110.91 ± 7.36 dB, 125 Hz = 117.0 ± 10.25 dB; little, 31.5 Hz = 110.70 ± 6.75 dB, 125 Hz = 117.71 ± 10.25 dB) compared to the normal healthy population with a mean threshold shift of between 9.20 to 10.61 decibels. The frequency of 31.5 Hz had a higher percentage of positive mean reference threshold shift (index finger=93.6%, little finger=100%) compared to 125 Hz (index finger=85.1%, little finger=78.7%). In conclusion, the prevalence of HAVS was lower than those working in a cold environment; however, all workers had a higher mean VPT value compared to the normal population with all those reported as having HAVS showing a positive mean reference threshold shift of VPT value.

Alien plant invasions and native plant extinctions: a six-threshold framework

PubMed Central

Downey, Paul O.; Richardson, David M.

2016-01-01

Biological invasions are widely acknowledged as a major threat to global biodiversity. Species from all major taxonomic groups have become invasive. The range of impacts of invasive taxa and the overall magnitude of the threat is increasing. Plants comprise the biggest and best-studied group of invasive species. There is a growing debate; however, regarding the nature of the alien plant threat—in particular whether the outcome is likely to be the widespread extinction of native plant species. The debate has raised questions on whether the threat posed by invasive plants to native plants has been overstated. We provide a conceptual framework to guide discussion on this topic, in which the threat posed by invasive plants is considered in the context of a progression from no impact through to extinction. We define six thresholds along the ‘extinction trajectory’, global extinction being the final threshold. Although there are no documented examples of either ‘in the wild’ (Threshold 5) or global extinctions (Threshold 6) of native plants that are attributable solely to plant invasions, there is evidence that native plants have crossed or breached other thresholds along the extinction trajectory due to the impacts associated with plant invasions. Several factors may be masking where native species are on the trajectory; these include a lack of appropriate data to accurately map the position of species on the trajectory, the timeframe required to definitively state that extinctions have occurred and management interventions. Such interventions, focussing mainly on Thresholds 1–3 (a declining population through to the local extinction of a population), are likely to alter the extinction trajectory of some species. The critical issue for conservation managers is the trend, because interventions must be implemented before extinctions occur. Thus the lack of evidence for extinctions attributable to plant invasions does not mean we should disregard the broader threat. PMID:27422543

Contextual Interactions in Grating Plaid Configurations Are Explained by Natural Image Statistics and Neural Modeling

PubMed Central

Ernst, Udo A.; Schiffer, Alina; Persike, Malte; Meinhardt, Günter

2016-01-01

Processing natural scenes requires the visual system to integrate local features into global object descriptions. To achieve coherent representations, the human brain uses statistical dependencies to guide weighting of local feature conjunctions. Pairwise interactions among feature detectors in early visual areas may form the early substrate of these local feature bindings. To investigate local interaction structures in visual cortex, we combined psychophysical experiments with computational modeling and natural scene analysis. We first measured contrast thresholds for 2 × 2 grating patch arrangements (plaids), which differed in spatial frequency composition (low, high, or mixed), number of grating patch co-alignments (0, 1, or 2), and inter-patch distances (1° and 2° of visual angle). Contrast thresholds for the different configurations were compared to the prediction of probability summation (PS) among detector families tuned to the four retinal positions. For 1° distance the thresholds for all configurations were larger than predicted by PS, indicating inhibitory interactions. For 2° distance, thresholds were significantly lower compared to PS when the plaids were homogeneous in spatial frequency and orientation, but not when spatial frequencies were mixed or there was at least one misalignment. Next, we constructed a neural population model with horizontal laminar structure, which reproduced the detection thresholds after adaptation of connection weights. Consistent with prior work, contextual interactions were medium-range inhibition and long-range, orientation-specific excitation. However, inclusion of orientation-specific, inhibitory interactions between populations with different spatial frequency preferences were crucial for explaining detection thresholds. Finally, for all plaid configurations we computed their likelihood of occurrence in natural images. The likelihoods turned out to be inversely related to the detection thresholds obtained at larger inter-patch distances. However, likelihoods were almost independent of inter-patch distance, implying that natural image statistics could not explain the crowding-like results at short distances. This failure of natural image statistics to resolve the patch distance modulation of plaid visibility remains a challenge to the approach. PMID:27757076

Alien plant invasions and native plant extinctions: a six-threshold framework.

PubMed

Downey, Paul O; Richardson, David M

2016-01-01

Biological invasions are widely acknowledged as a major threat to global biodiversity. Species from all major taxonomic groups have become invasive. The range of impacts of invasive taxa and the overall magnitude of the threat is increasing. Plants comprise the biggest and best-studied group of invasive species. There is a growing debate; however, regarding the nature of the alien plant threat-in particular whether the outcome is likely to be the widespread extinction of native plant species. The debate has raised questions on whether the threat posed by invasive plants to native plants has been overstated. We provide a conceptual framework to guide discussion on this topic, in which the threat posed by invasive plants is considered in the context of a progression from no impact through to extinction. We define six thresholds along the 'extinction trajectory', global extinction being the final threshold. Although there are no documented examples of either 'in the wild' (Threshold 5) or global extinctions (Threshold 6) of native plants that are attributable solely to plant invasions, there is evidence that native plants have crossed or breached other thresholds along the extinction trajectory due to the impacts associated with plant invasions. Several factors may be masking where native species are on the trajectory; these include a lack of appropriate data to accurately map the position of species on the trajectory, the timeframe required to definitively state that extinctions have occurred and management interventions. Such interventions, focussing mainly on Thresholds 1-3 (a declining population through to the local extinction of a population), are likely to alter the extinction trajectory of some species. The critical issue for conservation managers is the trend, because interventions must be implemented before extinctions occur. Thus the lack of evidence for extinctions attributable to plant invasions does not mean we should disregard the broader threat. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

N-terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptides' Prognostic Utility Is Overestimated in Meta-analyses Using Study-specific Optimal Diagnostic Thresholds.

PubMed

Potgieter, Danielle; Simmers, Dale; Ryan, Lisa; Biccard, Bruce M; Lurati-Buse, Giovanna A; Cardinale, Daniela M; Chong, Carol P W; Cnotliwy, Miloslaw; Farzi, Sylvia I; Jankovic, Radmilo J; Lim, Wen Kwang; Mahla, Elisabeth; Manikandan, Ramaswamy; Oscarsson, Anna; Phy, Michael P; Rajagopalan, Sriram; Van Gaal, William J; Waliszek, Marek; Rodseth, Reitze N

2015-08-01

N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) prognostic utility is commonly determined post hoc by identifying a single optimal discrimination threshold tailored to the individual study population. The authors aimed to determine how using these study-specific post hoc thresholds impacts meta-analysis results. The authors conducted a systematic review of studies reporting the ability of preoperative NT-proBNP measurements to predict the composite outcome of all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction at 30 days after noncardiac surgery. Individual patient-level data NT-proBNP thresholds were determined using two different methodologies. First, a single combined NT-proBNP threshold was determined for the entire cohort of patients, and a meta-analysis conducted using this single threshold. Second, study-specific thresholds were determined for each individual study, with meta-analysis being conducted using these study-specific thresholds. The authors obtained individual patient data from 14 studies (n = 2,196). Using a single NT-proBNP cohort threshold, the odds ratio (OR) associated with an increased NT-proBNP measurement was 3.43 (95% CI, 2.08 to 5.64). Using individual study-specific thresholds, the OR associated with an increased NT-proBNP measurement was 6.45 (95% CI, 3.98 to 10.46). In smaller studies (<100 patients) a single cohort threshold was associated with an OR of 5.4 (95% CI, 2.27 to 12.84) as compared with an OR of 14.38 (95% CI, 6.08 to 34.01) for study-specific thresholds. Post hoc identification of study-specific prognostic biomarker thresholds artificially maximizes biomarker predictive power, resulting in an amplification or overestimation during meta-analysis of these results. This effect is accentuated in small studies.

Genetic erosion impedes adaptive responses to stressful environments

PubMed Central

Bijlsma, R; Loeschcke, Volker

2012-01-01

Biodiversity is increasingly subjected to human-induced changes of the environment. To persist, populations continually have to adapt to these often stressful changes including pollution and climate change. Genetic erosion in small populations, owing to fragmentation of natural habitats, is expected to obstruct such adaptive responses: (i) genetic drift will cause a decrease in the level of adaptive genetic variation, thereby limiting evolutionary responses; (ii) inbreeding and the concomitant inbreeding depression will reduce individual fitness and, consequently, the tolerance of populations to environmental stress. Importantly, inbreeding generally increases the sensitivity of a population to stress, thereby increasing the amount of inbreeding depression. As adaptation to stress is most often accompanied by increased mortality (cost of selection), the increase in the ‘cost of inbreeding’ under stress is expected to severely hamper evolutionary adaptive processes. Inbreeding thus plays a pivotal role in this process and is expected to limit the probability of genetically eroded populations to successfully adapt to stressful environmental conditions. Consequently, the dynamics of small fragmented populations may differ considerably from large nonfragmented populations. The resilience of fragmented populations to changing and deteriorating environments is expected to be greatly decreased. Alleviating inbreeding depression, therefore, is crucial to ensure population persistence. PMID:25568035

Allee effect: the story behind the stabilization or extinction of microbial ecosystem.

PubMed

Goswami, Madhurankhi; Bhattacharyya, Purnita; Tribedi, Prosun

2017-03-01

A population exhibiting Allee effect shows a positive correlation between population fitness and population size or density. Allee effect decides the extinction or conservation of a microbial population and thus appears to be an important criterion in population ecology. The underlying factor of Allee effect that decides the stabilization and extinction of a particular population density is the threshold or the critical density of their abundance. According to Allee, microbial populations exhibit a definite, critical or threshold density, beyond which the population fitness of a particular population increases with the rise in population density and below it, the population fitness goes down with the decrease in population density. In particular, microbial population displays advantageous traits such as biofilm formation, expression of virulence genes, spore formation and many more only at a high population density. It has also been observed that microorganisms exhibiting a lower population density undergo complete extinction from the residual microbial ecosystem. In reference to Allee effect, decrease in population density or size introduces deleterious mutations among the population density through genetic drift. Mutations are carried forward to successive generations resulting in its accumulation among the population density thus reducing its microbial fitness and thereby increasing the risk of extinction of a particular microbial population. However, when the microbial load is high, the chance of genetic drift is less, and through the process of biofilm formation, the cooperation existing among the microbial population increases that increases the microbial fitness. Thus, the high microbial population through the formation of microbial biofilm stabilizes the ecosystem by increasing fitness. Taken together, microbial fitness shows positive correlation with the ecosystem conservation and negative correlation with ecosystem extinction.

Population dynamics of obligate cooperators

PubMed Central

Courchamp, F.; Grenfell, B.; Clutton-Brock, T.

1999-01-01

Obligate cooperative breeding species demonstrate a high rate of group extinction, which may be due to the existence of a critical number of helpers below which the group cannot subsist. Through a simple model, we study the population dynamics of obligate cooperative breeding species, taking into account the existence of a lower threshold below which the instantaneous growth rate becomes negative. The model successively incorporates (i) a distinction between species that need helpers for reproduction, survival or both, (ii) the existence of a migration rate accounting for dispersal, and (iii) stochastic mortality to simulate the effects of random catastrophic events. Our results suggest that the need for a minimum number of helpers increases the risk of extinction for obligate cooperative breeding species. The constraint imposed by this threshold is higher when helpers are needed for reproduction only or for both reproduction and survival. By driving them below this lower threshold, stochastic mortality of lower amplitude and/or lower frequency than for non-cooperative breeders may be sufficient to cause the extinction of obligate cooperative breeding groups. Migration may have a buffering effect only for groups where immigration is higher than emigration; otherwise (when immigrants from nearby groups are not available) it lowers the difference between actual group size and critical threshold, thereby constituting a higher constraint.

Olfactory Impairment in Chronic Rhinosinusitis Using Threshold, Discrimination, and Identification Scores

PubMed Central

Kohli, Preeti; Storck, Kristina A.; Schlosser, Rodney J.

2016-01-01

Differences in testing modalities and cut-points used to define olfactory dysfunction contribute to the wide variability in estimating the prevalence of olfactory dysfunction in chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS). The aim of this study is to report the prevalence of olfactory impairment using each component of the Sniffin’ Sticks test (threshold, discrimination, identification, and total score) with age-adjusted and ideal cut-points from normative populations. Patients meeting diagnostic criteria for CRS were enrolled from rhinology clinics at a tertiary academic center. Olfaction was assessed using the Sniffin’ Sticks test. The study population consisted of 110 patients. The prevalence of normosmia, hyposmia, and anosmia using total Sniffin’ Sticks score was 41.8%, 20.0%, and 38.2% using age-appropriate cut-points and 20.9%, 40.9%, and 38.2% using ideal cut-points. Olfactory impairment estimates for each dimension mirrored these findings, with threshold yielding the highest values. Threshold, discrimination, and identification were also found to be significantly correlated to each other (P < 0.001). In addition, computed tomography scores, asthma, allergy, and diabetes were found to be associated with olfactory dysfunction. In conclusion, the prevalence of olfactory dysfunction is dependent upon olfactory dimension and if age-adjusted cut-points are used. The method of olfactory testing should be chosen based upon specific clinical and research goals. PMID:27469973

Is the bitter rejection response always adaptive?

PubMed

Glendinning, J I

1994-12-01

The bitter rejection response consists of a suite of withdrawal reflexes and negative affective responses. It is generally assumed to have evolved as a way to facilitate avoidance of foods that are poisonous because they usually taste bitter to humans. Using previously published studies, the present paper examines the relationship between bitterness and toxicity in mammals, and then assesses the ecological costs and benefits of the bitter rejection response in carnivorous, omnivorous, and herbivorous (grazing and browsing) mammals. If the bitter rejection response accurately predicts the potential toxicity of foods, then one would expect the threshold for the response to be lower for highly toxic compounds than for nontoxic compounds. The data revealed no such relationship. Bitter taste thresholds varied independently of toxicity thresholds, indicating that the bitter rejection response is just as likely to be elicited by a harmless bitter food as it is by a harmful one. Thus, it is not necessarily in an animal's best interest to have an extremely high or low bitter threshold. Based on this observation, it was hypothesized that the adaptiveness of the bitter rejection response depends upon the relative occurrence of bitter and potentially toxic compounds in an animal's diet. Animals with a relatively high occurrence of bitter and potentially toxic compounds in their diet (e.g., browsing herbivores) were predicted to have evolved a high bitter taste threshold and tolerance to dietary poisons. Such an adaptation would be necessary because a browser cannot "afford" to reject all foods that are bitter and potentially toxic without unduly restricting its dietary options. At the other extreme, animals that rarely encounter bitter and potentially toxic compounds in their diet (e.g., carnivores) were predicted to have evolved a low bitter threshold. Carnivores could "afford" to utilize such a stringent rejection mechanism because foods containing bitter and potentially toxic compounds constitute a small portion of their diet. Since the low bitter threshold would reduce substantially the risk of ingesting anything poisonous, carnivores were also expected to have a relatively low tolerance to dietary poisons. This hypothesis was supported by a comparison involving 30 mammal species, in which a suggestive relationship was found between quinine hydrochloride sensitivity and trophic group, with carnivores > omnivores > grazers > browsers. Further support for the hypothesis was provided by a comparison across browsers and grazers in terms of the production of tannin-binding salivary proteins, which probably represent an adaptation for reducing the bitterness and astringency of tannins.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

An enhancement of ROC curves made them clinically relevant for diagnostic-test comparison and optimal-threshold determination.

PubMed

Subtil, Fabien; Rabilloud, Muriel

2015-07-01

The receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) are often used to compare continuous diagnostic tests or determine the optimal threshold of a test; however, they do not consider the costs of misclassifications or the disease prevalence. The ROC graph was extended to allow for these aspects. Two new lines are added to the ROC graph: a sensitivity line and a specificity line. Their slopes depend on the disease prevalence and on the ratio of the net benefit of treating a diseased subject to the net cost of treating a nondiseased one. First, these lines help researchers determine the range of specificities within which test comparisons of partial areas under the curves is clinically relevant. Second, the ROC curve point the farthest from the specificity line is shown to be the optimal threshold in terms of expected utility. This method was applied: (1) to determine the optimal threshold of ratio specific immunoglobulin G (IgG)/total IgG for the diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis and (2) to select, among two markers, the most accurate for the diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy in hypertensive subjects. The two additional lines transform the statistically valid ROC graph into a clinically relevant tool for test selection and threshold determination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stress lowers the detection threshold for foul-smelling 2-mercaptoethanol.

PubMed

Pacharra, Marlene; Schäper, Michael; Kleinbeck, Stefan; Blaszkewicz, Meinolf; Wolf, Oliver T; van Thriel, Christoph

2016-01-01

Previous studies have reported enhanced vigilance for threat-related information in response to acute stress. While it is known that acute stress modulates sensory systems in humans, its impact on olfaction and the olfactory detection of potential threats is less clear. Two psychophysical experiments examined, if acute stress lowers the detection threshold for foul-smelling 2-mercaptoethanol. Participants in Experiment 1 (N = 30) and Experiment 2 (N = 32) were randomly allocated to a control group or a stress group. Participants in the stress group underwent a purely psychosocial stressor (public mental arithmetic) in Experiment 1 and a stressor that combined a physically demanding task with social-evaluative threat in Experiment 2 (socially evaluated cold-pressor test). In both experiments, olfactory detection thresholds were repeatedly assessed by means of dynamic dilution olfactometry. Each threshold measurement consisted of three trials conducted using an ascending method of limits. Participants in the stress groups showed the expected changes in heart rate, salivary cortisol, and mood measures in response to stress. About 20 min after the stressor, participants in the stress groups could detect 2-mercaptoethanol at a lower concentration than participants in the corresponding control groups. Our results show that acute stress lowers the detection threshold for a malodor.

Rationality, practice variation and person-centred health policy: a threshold hypothesis.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hamm, Robert M; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Van den Ende, Jef

2015-12-01

Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability thresholds at which physicians decide to act: contextual social and clinical factors and emotions such as regret affect the threshold by influencing the way doctors integrate objective data related to treatment and testing. However, depending on a theoretical construct each of the physician's behaviour can be considered rational. In fact, we showed that the current regulatory policies lead to predictably low thresholds for most decisions in contemporary practice. As a result, we may expect continuing motivation for overuse of treatment and diagnostic tests. We argue that rationality should take into account both formal principles of rationality and human intuitions about good decisions along the lines of Rawls' 'reflective equilibrium/considered judgment'. In turn, this can help define a threshold model that is empirically testable. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The absolute threshold of cone vision

PubMed Central

Koeing, Darran; Hofer, Heidi

2013-01-01

We report measurements of the absolute threshold of cone vision, which has been previously underestimated due to sub-optimal conditions or overly strict subjective response criteria. We avoided these limitations by using optimized stimuli and experimental conditions while having subjects respond within a rating scale framework. Small (1′ fwhm), brief (34 msec), monochromatic (550 nm) stimuli were foveally presented at multiple intensities in dark-adapted retina for 5 subjects. For comparison, 4 subjects underwent similar testing with rod-optimized stimuli. Cone absolute threshold, that is, the minimum light energy for which subjects were just able to detect a visual stimulus with any response criterion, was 203 ± 38 photons at the cornea, ∼0.47 log units lower than previously reported. Two-alternative forced-choice measurements in a subset of subjects yielded consistent results. Cone thresholds were less responsive to criterion changes than rod thresholds, suggesting a limit to the stimulus information recoverable from the cone mosaic in addition to the limit imposed by Poisson noise. Results were consistent with expectations for detection in the face of stimulus uncertainty. We discuss implications of these findings for modeling the first stages of human cone vision and interpreting psychophysical data acquired with adaptive optics at the spatial scale of the receptor mosaic. PMID:21270115

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods. For the three test seasons, the optimized thresholds tend to under-predict the icing losses. However, the threshold determined using boundary layer similarity theory most closely predicts the power losses due to icing versus the other methods. For the northern turbine, the average predicted power loss over the three seasons is 4.65 % while the observed power loss is 6.22 % (average difference of 1.57 %). For the southern turbine, the average predicted power loss and observed power loss over the same time period are 4.43 % and 6.16 %, respectively (average difference of 1.73 %). The three-year average, however, does not clearly capture the variability that exists season-to-season. On examination of each of the test seasons individually, the optimized relative humidity threshold methodology performs better than fixed power loss estimates commonly used in the wind energy industry.

Using generalized additive modeling to empirically identify thresholds within the ITERS in relation to toddlers' cognitive development.

PubMed

Setodji, Claude Messan; Le, Vi-Nhuan; Schaack, Diana

2013-04-01

Research linking high-quality child care programs and children's cognitive development has contributed to the growing popularity of child care quality benchmarking efforts such as quality rating and improvement systems (QRIS). Consequently, there has been an increased interest in and a need for approaches to identifying thresholds, or cutpoints, in the child care quality measures used in these benchmarking efforts that differentiate between different levels of children's cognitive functioning. To date, research has provided little guidance to policymakers as to where these thresholds should be set. Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B) data set, this study explores the use of generalized additive modeling (GAM) as a method of identifying thresholds on the Infant/Toddler Environment Rating Scale (ITERS) in relation to toddlers' performance on the Mental Development subscale of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (the Bayley Mental Development Scale Short Form-Research Edition, or BMDSF-R). The present findings suggest that simple linear models do not always correctly depict the relationships between ITERS scores and BMDSF-R scores and that GAM-derived thresholds were more effective at differentiating among children's performance levels on the BMDSF-R. Additionally, the present findings suggest that there is a minimum threshold on the ITERS that must be exceeded before significant improvements in children's cognitive development can be expected. There may also be a ceiling threshold on the ITERS, such that beyond a certain level, only marginal increases in children's BMDSF-R scores are observed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Adaptive Spike Threshold Enables Robust and Temporally Precise Neuronal Encoding

PubMed Central

Resnik, Andrey; Celikel, Tansu; Englitz, Bernhard

2016-01-01

Neural processing rests on the intracellular transformation of information as synaptic inputs are translated into action potentials. This transformation is governed by the spike threshold, which depends on the history of the membrane potential on many temporal scales. While the adaptation of the threshold after spiking activity has been addressed before both theoretically and experimentally, it has only recently been demonstrated that the subthreshold membrane state also influences the effective spike threshold. The consequences for neural computation are not well understood yet. We address this question here using neural simulations and whole cell intracellular recordings in combination with information theoretic analysis. We show that an adaptive spike threshold leads to better stimulus discrimination for tight input correlations than would be achieved otherwise, independent from whether the stimulus is encoded in the rate or pattern of action potentials. The time scales of input selectivity are jointly governed by membrane and threshold dynamics. Encoding information using adaptive thresholds further ensures robust information transmission across cortical states i.e. decoding from different states is less state dependent in the adaptive threshold case, if the decoding is performed in reference to the timing of the population response. Results from in vitro neural recordings were consistent with simulations from adaptive threshold neurons. In summary, the adaptive spike threshold reduces information loss during intracellular information transfer, improves stimulus discriminability and ensures robust decoding across membrane states in a regime of highly correlated inputs, similar to those seen in sensory nuclei during the encoding of sensory information. PMID:27304526

Adaptive Spike Threshold Enables Robust and Temporally Precise Neuronal Encoding.

PubMed

Huang, Chao; Resnik, Andrey; Celikel, Tansu; Englitz, Bernhard

2016-06-01

Neural processing rests on the intracellular transformation of information as synaptic inputs are translated into action potentials. This transformation is governed by the spike threshold, which depends on the history of the membrane potential on many temporal scales. While the adaptation of the threshold after spiking activity has been addressed before both theoretically and experimentally, it has only recently been demonstrated that the subthreshold membrane state also influences the effective spike threshold. The consequences for neural computation are not well understood yet. We address this question here using neural simulations and whole cell intracellular recordings in combination with information theoretic analysis. We show that an adaptive spike threshold leads to better stimulus discrimination for tight input correlations than would be achieved otherwise, independent from whether the stimulus is encoded in the rate or pattern of action potentials. The time scales of input selectivity are jointly governed by membrane and threshold dynamics. Encoding information using adaptive thresholds further ensures robust information transmission across cortical states i.e. decoding from different states is less state dependent in the adaptive threshold case, if the decoding is performed in reference to the timing of the population response. Results from in vitro neural recordings were consistent with simulations from adaptive threshold neurons. In summary, the adaptive spike threshold reduces information loss during intracellular information transfer, improves stimulus discriminability and ensures robust decoding across membrane states in a regime of highly correlated inputs, similar to those seen in sensory nuclei during the encoding of sensory information.

Future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments: the impact of dynamic glacier modelling and changing thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Van Loon, Anne; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc; Teuling, Ryan; Stahl, Kerstin

2017-04-01

In glacierized catchments, snowpack and glaciers function as an important storage of water and hydrographs of highly glacierized catchments in mid- and high latitudes thus show a clear seasonality with low flows in winter and high flows in summer. Due to the ongoing climate change we expect this type of storage capacity to decrease with resultant consequences for the discharge regime. In this study we focus on streamflow droughts, here defined as below average water availability specifically in the high flow season, and which methods are most suitable to characterize future streamflow droughts as regimes change. Two glacierized catchments, Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Wolverine (Alaska), are used as case study and streamflow droughts are compared between two periods, 1975-2004 and 2071-2100. Streamflow is simulated with the HBV light model, calibrated on observed discharge and seasonal glacier mass balances, for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). In studies on future streamflow drought often the same variable threshold of the past has been applied to the future, but in regions where a regime shift is expected this method gives severe "droughts" in the historic high-flow period. We applied the new alternative transient variable threshold, a threshold that adapts to the changing hydrological regime and is thus better able to cope with this issue, but has never been thoroughly tested in glacierized catchments. As the glacier area representation in the hydrological modelling can also influence the modelled discharge and the derived streamflow droughts, we evaluated in this study both the difference between the historical variable threshold (HVT) and transient variable threshold (TVT) and two different glacier area conceptualisations (constant area (C) and dynamical area (D)), resulting in four scenarios: HVT-C, HVT-D, TVT-C and TVT-D. Results show a drastic decrease in the number of droughts in the HVT-C scenario due to increased glacier melt. The deficit volume is expected to be up to almost eight times larger in the future compared to the historical period (Wolverine, +674%) in the HVT-D scenario, caused by the regime shift. Using the TVT the drought characteristics between the C and D scenarios and between future and historic droughts are more similar. However, when using the TVT, causing factors of future droughts, anomalies in temperature and/or precipitation, can be analysed. This study highlights the different conclusions that may be drawn on future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments depending on methodological choices. They could be used to answer different questions: the TVT for analysing drought processes in the future, the HVT to assess changes between historical and future periods, the constant area conceptualisation to analyse the effect of short term climate variability and the dynamical glacier area to model realistic future discharges in glacierized catchments.

Modelling the impact of altered axonal morphometry on the response of regenerative nervous tissue to electrical stimulation through macro-sieve electrodes.

PubMed

Zellmer, Erik R; MacEwan, Matthew R; Moran, Daniel W

2018-04-01

Regenerated peripheral nervous tissue possesses different morphometric properties compared to undisrupted nerve. It is poorly understood how these morphometric differences alter the response of the regenerated nerve to electrical stimulation. In this work, we use computational modeling to explore the electrophysiological response of regenerated and undisrupted nerve axons to electrical stimulation delivered by macro-sieve electrodes (MSEs). A 3D finite element model of a peripheral nerve segment populated with mammalian myelinated axons and implanted with a macro-sieve electrode has been developed. Fiber diameters and morphometric characteristics representative of undisrupted or regenerated peripheral nervous tissue were assigned to core conductor models to simulate the two tissue types. Simulations were carried out to quantify differences in thresholds and chronaxie between undisrupted and regenerated fiber populations. The model was also used to determine the influence of axonal caliber on recruitment thresholds for the two tissue types. Model accuracy was assessed through comparisons with in vivo recruitment data from chronically implanted MSEs. Recruitment thresholds of individual regenerated fibers with diameters  >2 µm were found to be lower compared to same caliber undisrupted fibers at electrode to fiber distances of less than about 90-140 µm but roughly equal or higher for larger distances. Caliber redistributions observed in regenerated nerve resulted in an overall increase in average recruitment thresholds and chronaxie during whole nerve stimulation. Modeling results also suggest that large diameter undisrupted fibers located close to a longitudinally restricted current source such as the MSE have higher average recruitment thresholds compared to small diameter fibers. In contrast, large diameter regenerated nerve fibers located in close proximity of MSE sites have, on average, lower recruitment thresholds compared to small fibers. Utilizing regenerated fiber morphometry and caliber distributions resulted in accurate predictions of in vivo recruitment data. Our work uses computational modeling to show how morphometric differences between regenerated and undisrupted tissue results in recruitment threshold discrepancies, quantifies these differences, and illustrates how large undisrupted nerve fibers close to longitudinally restricted current sources have higher recruitment thresholds compared to adjacently positioned smaller fibers while the opposite is true for large regenerated fibers.

Modelling the impact of altered axonal morphometry on the response of regenerative nervous tissue to electrical stimulation through macro-sieve electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zellmer, Erik R.; MacEwan, Matthew R.; Moran, Daniel W.

2018-04-01

Objective. Regenerated peripheral nervous tissue possesses different morphometric properties compared to undisrupted nerve. It is poorly understood how these morphometric differences alter the response of the regenerated nerve to electrical stimulation. In this work, we use computational modeling to explore the electrophysiological response of regenerated and undisrupted nerve axons to electrical stimulation delivered by macro-sieve electrodes (MSEs). Approach. A 3D finite element model of a peripheral nerve segment populated with mammalian myelinated axons and implanted with a macro-sieve electrode has been developed. Fiber diameters and morphometric characteristics representative of undisrupted or regenerated peripheral nervous tissue were assigned to core conductor models to simulate the two tissue types. Simulations were carried out to quantify differences in thresholds and chronaxie between undisrupted and regenerated fiber populations. The model was also used to determine the influence of axonal caliber on recruitment thresholds for the two tissue types. Model accuracy was assessed through comparisons with in vivo recruitment data from chronically implanted MSEs. Main results. Recruitment thresholds of individual regenerated fibers with diameters  >2 µm were found to be lower compared to same caliber undisrupted fibers at electrode to fiber distances of less than about 90-140 µm but roughly equal or higher for larger distances. Caliber redistributions observed in regenerated nerve resulted in an overall increase in average recruitment thresholds and chronaxie during whole nerve stimulation. Modeling results also suggest that large diameter undisrupted fibers located close to a longitudinally restricted current source such as the MSE have higher average recruitment thresholds compared to small diameter fibers. In contrast, large diameter regenerated nerve fibers located in close proximity of MSE sites have, on average, lower recruitment thresholds compared to small fibers. Utilizing regenerated fiber morphometry and caliber distributions resulted in accurate predictions of in vivo recruitment data. Significance. Our work uses computational modeling to show how morphometric differences between regenerated and undisrupted tissue results in recruitment threshold discrepancies, quantifies these differences, and illustrates how large undisrupted nerve fibers close to longitudinally restricted current sources have higher recruitment thresholds compared to adjacently positioned smaller fibers while the opposite is true for large regenerated fibers.

Ecosystem services response to urbanization in metropolitan areas: Thresholds identification.

PubMed

Peng, Jian; Tian, Lu; Liu, Yanxu; Zhao, Mingyue; Hu, Yi'na; Wu, Jiansheng

2017-12-31

Ecosystem service is the key comprehensive indicator for measuring the ecological effects of urbanization. Although various studies have found a causal relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services degradation, the linear or non-linear characteristics are still unclear, especially identifying the impact thresholds in this relationship. This study quantified four ecosystem services (i.e. soil conservation, carbon sequestration and oxygen production, water yield, and food production) and total ecosystem services (TES), and then identified multiple advantageous area of ecosystem services in the peri-urban area of Beijing City. Using piecewise linear regression, the response of TES to urbanization (i.e., population density, GDP density, and construction land proportion) and its thresholds were detected. The results showed that, the TES was high in the north and west and low in the southeast, and there were seven multiple advantageous areas (distributed in the new urban development zone and ecological conservation zone), one single advantageous area (distributed in the ecological conservation zone), and six disadvantageous areas (mainly distributed in the urban function extended zone). TES response to population and economic urbanization each had a threshold (229personkm -2 and 107.15millionyuankm -2 , respectively), above which TES decreased rapidly with intensifying urbanization. However, there was a negative linear relationship between land urbanization and TES, which indicated that the impact of land urbanization on ecosystem services was more direct and effective than that of population and economic urbanization. It was also found that the negative impact of urbanization on TES was highest in the urban function extended zone, followed in descending order by that in the new urban development zone and ecological conservation zone. According to the detected relationships between urbanization and TES, the economic and population urbanization should be strengthened accompanied by slowing or even reducing land urbanization, so as to achieve urban ecological sustainability with less ecosystem services degradation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

South Dakota Kids Count Factbook, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cochran, Carole, Ed.

This Kids Count factbook examines statewide trends in well-being for South Dakota's children. The statistical portrait is based on 24 indicators in the areas of demographics, health, education, economic status, and safety. The indicators are: (1) poverty thresholds; (2) population; (3) population on Indian Reservations; (4) infant mortality; (5)…

Examining the Feasibility and Utility of Estimating Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (via a Nonparametric Approach) as Part of the Reimbursement Decision-Making Process in Ireland: Application to Drugs for Cancer.

PubMed

McCullagh, Laura; Schmitz, Susanne; Barry, Michael; Walsh, Cathal

2017-11-01

In Ireland, all new drugs for which reimbursement by the healthcare payer is sought undergo a health technology assessment by the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics. The National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics estimate expected value of perfect information but not partial expected value of perfect information (owing to computational expense associated with typical methodologies). The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility and utility of estimating partial expected value of perfect information via a computationally efficient, non-parametric regression approach. This was a retrospective analysis of evaluations on drugs for cancer that had been submitted to the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics (January 2010 to December 2014 inclusive). Drugs were excluded if cost effective at the submitted price. Drugs were excluded if concerns existed regarding the validity of the applicants' submission or if cost-effectiveness model functionality did not allow required modifications to be made. For each included drug (n = 14), value of information was estimated at the final reimbursement price, at a threshold equivalent to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at that price. The expected value of perfect information was estimated from probabilistic analysis. Partial expected value of perfect information was estimated via a non-parametric approach. Input parameters with a population value at least €1 million were identified as potential targets for research. All partial estimates were determined within minutes. Thirty parameters (across nine models) each had a value of at least €1 million. These were categorised. Collectively, survival analysis parameters were valued at €19.32 million, health state utility parameters at €15.81 million and parameters associated with the cost of treating adverse effects at €6.64 million. Those associated with drug acquisition costs and with the cost of care were valued at €6.51 million and €5.71 million, respectively. This research demonstrates that the estimation of partial expected value of perfect information via this computationally inexpensive approach could be considered feasible as part of the health technology assessment process for reimbursement purposes within the Irish healthcare system. It might be a useful tool in prioritising future research to decrease decision uncertainty.

Vocal Function and Upper Airway Thermoregulation in Five Different Environmental Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandage, Mary J.; Connor, Nadine P.; Pascoe, David D.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Phonation threshold pressure and perceived phonatory effort were hypothesized to increase and upper airway temperature to decrease following exposure to cold and/or dry air. Greater changes were expected with mouth versus nose breathing. Method: In a within-participant repeated measures design, 15 consented participants (7 men, 8 women)…

A cascade of destabilizations: Combining Wolbachia and Allee effects to eradicate insect pests.

PubMed

Blackwood, Julie C; Vargas, Roger; Fauvergue, Xavier

2018-01-01

The management of insect pests has long been dominated by the use of chemical insecticides, with the aim of instantaneously killing enough individuals to limit their damage. To minimize unwanted consequences, environmentally friendly approaches have been proposed that utilize biological control and take advantage of intrinsic demographic processes to reduce pest populations. We address the feasibility of a novel pest management strategy based on the release of insects infected with Wolbachia, which causes cytoplasmic incompatibilities in its host population, into a population with a pre-existing Allee effect. We hypothesize that the transient decline in population size caused by a successful invasion of Wolbachia can bring the population below its Allee threshold and, consequently, trigger extinction. We develop a stochastic population model that accounts for Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibilities in addition to an Allee effect arising from mating failures at low population densities. Using our model, we identify conditions under which cytoplasmic incompatibilities and Allee effects successfully interact to drive insect pest populations towards extinction. Based on our results, we delineate control strategies based on introductions of Wolbachia-infected insects. We extend this analysis to evaluate control strategies that implement successive introductions of two incompatible Wolbachia strains. Additionally, we consider methods that combine Wolbachia invasion with mating disruption tactics to enhance the pre-existing Allee effect. We demonstrate that Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility and the Allee effect act independently from one another: the Allee effect does not modify the Wolbachia invasion threshold, and cytoplasmic incompatibilities only have a marginal effect on the Allee threshold. However, the interaction of these two processes can drive even large populations to extinction. The success of this method can be amplified by the introduction of multiple Wolbachia cytotypes as well as the addition of mating disruption. Our study extends the existing literature by proposing the use of Wolbachia introductions to capitalize on pre-existing Allee effects and consequently eradicate insect pests. More generally, it highlights the importance of transient dynamics, and the relevance of manipulating a cascade of destabilizatons for pest management. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

How much of the difference in life expectancy between Scottish cities does deprivation explain?

PubMed

Seaman, R; Mitchell, R; Dundas, R; Leyland, A H; Popham, F

2015-10-16

Glasgow's low life expectancy and high levels of deprivation are well documented. Studies comparing Glasgow to similarly deprived cities in England suggest an excess of deaths in Glasgow that cannot be accounted for by deprivation. Within Scotland comparisons are more equivocal suggesting deprivation could explain Glasgow's excess mortality. Few studies have used life expectancy, an intuitive measure that quantifies the between-city difference in years. This study aimed to use the most up-to-date data to compare Glasgow to other Scottish cities and to (i) evaluate whether deprivation could account for lower life expectancy in Glasgow and (ii) explore whether the age distribution of mortality in Glasgow could explain its lower life expectancy. Sex specific life expectancy was calculated for 2007-2011 for the population in Glasgow and the combined population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh. Life expectancy was calculated for deciles of income deprivation, based on the national ranking of datazones, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Life expectancy in Glasgow overall, and by deprivation decile, was compared to that in Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, and the life expectancy difference decomposed by age using Arriaga's discrete method. Life expectancy for the whole Glasgow population was lower than the population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined. When life expectancy was compared by national income deprivation decile, Glasgow's life expectancy was not systematically lower, and deprivation accounted for over 90 % of the difference. This was reduced to 70 % of the difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis using city-specific income deprivation deciles. In both analyses life expectancy was not systematically lower in Glasgow when stratified by deprivation. Decomposing the differences in life expectancy also showed that the age distribution of mortality was not systematically different in Glasgow after accounting for deprivation. Life expectancy is not systematically lower across the Glasgow population compared to Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, once deprivation is accounted for. This provides further evidence that tackling deprivation in Glasgow would probably reduce the health inequalities that exist between Scottish cities. The change in the amount of unexplained difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis demonstrates the difficulties in comparing socioeconomic deprivation between populations, even within the same country and when applying an established ecological measure. Although the majority of health inequality between Glasgow and other Scottish cities is explained by deprivation, the difference in the amount of unexplained inequality depending on the relative context of deprivation used demonstrates the challenges associated with attributing mortality inequalities to an independent 'place effect'.

How insurance affects altruistic provision in threshold public goods games.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianlei; Zhang, Chunyan; Cao, Ming

2015-03-13

The occurrence and maintenance of cooperative behaviors in public goods systems have attracted great research attention across multiple disciplines. A threshold public goods game requires a minimum amount of contributions to be collected from a group of individuals for provision to occur. Here we extend the common binary-strategy combination of cooperation and defection by adding a third strategy, called insured cooperation, which corresponds to buying an insurance covering the potential loss resulted from the unsuccessful public goods game. Particularly, only the contributing agents can opt to be insured, which is an effort decreasing the amount of the potential loss occurring. Theoretical computations suggest that when agents face the potential aggregate risk in threshold public goods games, more contributions occur with increasing compensation from insurance. Moreover, permitting the adoption of insurance significantly enhances individual contributions and facilitates provision, especially when the required threshold is high. This work also relates the strategy competition outcomes to different allocation rules once the resulted contributions exceed the threshold point in populations nested within a dilemma.

A derivation of the stable cavitation threshold accounting for bubble-bubble interactions.

PubMed

Guédra, Matthieu; Cornu, Corentin; Inserra, Claude

2017-09-01

The subharmonic emission of sound coming from the nonlinear response of a bubble population is the most used indicator for stable cavitation. When driven at twice their resonance frequency, bubbles can exhibit subharmonic spherical oscillations if the acoustic pressure amplitude exceeds a threshold value. Although various theoretical derivations exist for the subharmonic emission by free or coated bubbles, they all rest on the single bubble model. In this paper, we propose an analytical expression of the subharmonic threshold for interacting bubbles in a homogeneous, monodisperse cloud. This theory predicts a shift of the subharmonic resonance frequency and a decrease of the corresponding pressure threshold due to the interactions. For a given sonication frequency, these results show that an optimal value of the interaction strength (i.e. the number density of bubbles) can be found for which the subharmonic threshold is minimum, which is consistent with recently published experiments conducted on ultrasound contrast agents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fluctuation scaling in the visual cortex at threshold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, José M.; Díaz, José A.

2016-05-01

Fluctuation scaling relates trial-to-trial variability to the average response by a power function in many physical processes. Here we address whether fluctuation scaling holds in sensory psychophysics and its functional role in visual processing. We report experimental evidence of fluctuation scaling in human color vision and form perception at threshold. Subjects detected thresholds in a psychophysical masking experiment that is considered a standard reference for studying suppression between neurons in the visual cortex. For all subjects, the analysis of threshold variability that results from the masking task indicates that fluctuation scaling is a global property that modulates detection thresholds with a scaling exponent that departs from 2, β =2.48 ±0.07 . We also examine a generalized version of fluctuation scaling between the sample kurtosis K and the sample skewness S of threshold distributions. We find that K and S are related and follow a unique quadratic form K =(1.19 ±0.04 ) S2+(2.68 ±0.06 ) that departs from the expected 4/3 power function regime. A random multiplicative process with weak additive noise is proposed based on a Langevin-type equation. The multiplicative process provides a unifying description of fluctuation scaling and the quadratic S -K relation and is related to on-off intermittency in sensory perception. Our findings provide an insight into how the human visual system interacts with the external environment. The theoretical methods open perspectives for investigating fluctuation scaling and intermittency effects in a wide variety of natural, economic, and cognitive phenomena.

Projecting population change in the interior Columbia River Basin.

Treesearch

Stephen F. McCool; Richard W. Haynes

1996-01-01

Management of ecosystems requires projecting the human population for a biologically significant timeframe, because the impacts of potential alternative ecosystem management strategies will differ depending on the size, location, and expectations of the human population. Increases since 1990 in the net migration rates are changing the expectations for projections of...

Detection of critical cerebral desaturation thresholds by three regional oximeters during hypoxia: a pilot study in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Tomlin, Kerry L; Neitenbach, Anna-Maria; Borg, Ulf

2017-01-13

Regional oximetry is increasingly used to monitor post-extraction oxygen status of the brain during surgical procedures where hemodynamic fluctuations are expected. Particularly in cardiac surgery, clinicians employ an interventional algorithm to restore baseline regional oxygen saturation (rSO 2 ) when a patient reaches a critical desaturation threshold. Evidence suggests that monitoring cardiac surgery patients and intervening to maintain rSO 2 can improve postoperative outcomes; however, evidence generated with one manufacturer's device may not be applicable to others. We hypothesized that regional oximeters from different manufacturers respond uniquely to changes in oxygen saturation in healthy volunteers. Three devices were tested: INVOS™ 5100C (Medtronic), EQUANOX™ 7600 (Nonin), and FORE-SIGHT™ (CASMED) monitors. We divided ten healthy subjects into two cohorts wearing a single sensor each from INVOS and EQUANOX (n = 6), or INVOS and FORE-SIGHT (n = 4). We induced and reversed hypoxia by adjusting the fraction of inspired oxygen. We calculated the magnitude of absolute rSO 2 change and rate of rSO 2 change during desaturation and resaturation, and determined if and when each device reached a critical interventional rSO 2 threshold during hypoxia. All devices responded to changes in oxygen directionally as expected. The median absolute rSO 2 change and the rate of rSO 2 change was significantly greater during desaturation and resaturation for INVOS compared with EQUANOX (P = 0.04). A similar but nonsignificant trend was observed for INVOS compared with FORE-SIGHT; our study was underpowered to definitively conclude there was no difference. A 10% relative decrease in rSO 2 during desaturation was detected by all three devices across the ten subjects. INVOS met a 20% relative decrease threshold in all subjects of both cohorts, compared to 1 with EQUANOX and 2 with FORE-SIGHT. Neither EQUANOX nor FORE-SIGHT reached a 50% absolute rSO 2 threshold compared with 4 and 3 subjects in each cohort with INVOS, respectively. Significant differences exist between the devices in how they respond to changes in oxygen saturation in healthy volunteers. We suggest caution when applying evidence generated with one manufacturer's device to all devices.

Shrinkage estimation of effect sizes as an alternative to hypothesis testing followed by estimation in high-dimensional biology: applications to differential gene expression.

PubMed

Montazeri, Zahra; Yanofsky, Corey M; Bickel, David R

2010-01-01

Research on analyzing microarray data has focused on the problem of identifying differentially expressed genes to the neglect of the problem of how to integrate evidence that a gene is differentially expressed with information on the extent of its differential expression. Consequently, researchers currently prioritize genes for further study either on the basis of volcano plots or, more commonly, according to simple estimates of the fold change after filtering the genes with an arbitrary statistical significance threshold. While the subjective and informal nature of the former practice precludes quantification of its reliability, the latter practice is equivalent to using a hard-threshold estimator of the expression ratio that is not known to perform well in terms of mean-squared error, the sum of estimator variance and squared estimator bias. On the basis of two distinct simulation studies and data from different microarray studies, we systematically compared the performance of several estimators representing both current practice and shrinkage. We find that the threshold-based estimators usually perform worse than the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) and they often perform far worse as quantified by estimated mean-squared risk. By contrast, the shrinkage estimators tend to perform as well as or better than the MLE and never much worse than the MLE, as expected from what is known about shrinkage. However, a Bayesian measure of performance based on the prior information that few genes are differentially expressed indicates that hard-threshold estimators perform about as well as the local false discovery rate (FDR), the best of the shrinkage estimators studied. Based on the ability of the latter to leverage information across genes, we conclude that the use of the local-FDR estimator of the fold change instead of informal or threshold-based combinations of statistical tests and non-shrinkage estimators can be expected to substantially improve the reliability of gene prioritization at very little risk of doing so less reliably. Since the proposed replacement of post-selection estimates with shrunken estimates applies as well to other types of high-dimensional data, it could also improve the analysis of SNP data from genome-wide association studies.

Postcollision interactions in the Auger decay of the Ar L-shell

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samson, J.A.R.; Stolte, W.C.; He, Z.X.

1997-04-01

The photoionization cross sections for Ar{sup +} through Ar{sup 4+}, produced by the Auger decay of an inner shell 2p hole, have been measured between 242 eV and 253 eV on beamline 9.0.1 and 6.3.2. In this study the authors are interested in near threshold phenomenon involving postcollision interactions (PCI), which are related to the Auger decay of a vacancy in the Ar L-shell. During an Auger decay a postcollision interaction can occur causing the out-going photoelectron to be retarded thus losing a certain amount of energy. If the retardation is sufficiently large the photoelectron will not escape. This resultmore » produces a singly charged ion, which normally would not be present. Such evidence of electron capture by the PCI effect was first shown clearly by Eberhardt et al. and, with higher resolution, in the present work. However, capture of the photoelectron is expected to be 100% exactly at the L{sub 2,3} thresholds. Thus, from the authors results they would have expected the Ar{sup 2+} signal to be zero at threshold, but it was not? The authors can explain this anomoly on the basis that during the Auger decay the photoelectrons are captured into high lying excited states of Ar{sup +}, which subsequently decay through autoionization yielding Ar{sup 2+}. Future work in this area will seek experimental evidence to verify this prediction.« less

Electron imaging with Medipix2 hybrid pixel detector.

PubMed

McMullan, G; Cattermole, D M; Chen, S; Henderson, R; Llopart, X; Summerfield, C; Tlustos, L; Faruqi, A R

2007-01-01

The electron imaging performance of Medipix2 is described. Medipix2 is a hybrid pixel detector composed of two layers. It has a sensor layer and a layer of readout electronics, in which each 55 microm x 55 microm pixel has upper and lower energy discrimination and MHz rate counting. The sensor layer consists of a 300 microm slab of pixellated monolithic silicon and this is bonded to the readout chip. Experimental measurement of the detective quantum efficiency, DQE(0) at 120 keV shows that it can reach approximately 85% independent of electron exposure, since the detector has zero noise, and the DQE(Nyquist) can reach approximately 35% of that expected for a perfect detector (4/pi(2)). Experimental measurement of the modulation transfer function (MTF) at Nyquist resolution for 120 keV electrons using a 60 keV lower energy threshold, yields a value that is 50% of that expected for a perfect detector (2/pi). Finally, Monte Carlo simulations of electron tracks and energy deposited in adjacent pixels have been performed and used to calculate expected values for the MTF and DQE as a function of the threshold energy. The good agreement between theory and experiment allows suggestions for further improvements to be made with confidence. The present detector is already very useful for experiments that require a high DQE at very low doses.

Study on polychlorobiphenyl serum levels in French consumers of freshwater fish.

PubMed

Desvignes, Virginie; Volatier, Jean-Luc; de Bels, Frédéric; Zeghnoun, Abdelkrim; Favrot, Marie-Christine; Marchand, Philippe; Le Bizec, Bruno; Rivière, Gilles; Leblanc, Jean-Charles; Merlo, Mathilde

2015-02-01

Polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) are persistent pollutants that are widespread in the environment and in foodstuffs, particularly in freshwater fish, which frequently exceed the maximum levels set by European regulations. First, we describe the consumption of freshwater fish and serum PCB levels in French anglers, a population expected to have the highest level of dietary PCB exposure. Second, we investigated whether there is a statistical relationship between serum PCB levels and the angler consumption of freshwater fish with high PCB bioaccumulation potential (PCB-BP(+) freshwater fish) in order to make recommendations with regard to safe consumption of freshwater fish. We conducted a survey of anglers from six sites with contrasting PCB contamination levels. The survey included a food consumption frequency questionnaire and blood samples were taken to assess serum PCB levels. We used a regression model to determine the main factors contributing to serum PCB levels. Consumption of PCB-BP(+) freshwater fish was relatively infrequent. Serum PCB levels of the study population and of women of childbearing age were in the same range as those observed in the French population and in neighbouring European countries, but higher than in the North American population. The two factors with the highest positive association with serum PCB levels were age (R(2)=61%) and the consumption of PCB-BP(+) freshwater fish (R(2)=2%). Using the regression model, we calculated, for several scenarios depending on the age and gender of the population, the maximum annual frequencies for PCB-BP(+) freshwater fish consumption that do not exceed the critical body burden threshold. Following the results of this study, the French agency for food, environmental and occupational health and safety (ANSES) issued an opinion and recommended some specific maximum freshwater fish consumption frequencies to protect the French general population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.

2006-12-01

Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models that incorporate fine-scale landscape structure and its changes over time.

What is the optimal rate of caesarean section at population level? A systematic review of ecologic studies.

PubMed

Betran, Ana Pilar; Torloni, Maria Regina; Zhang, Jun; Ye, Jiangfeng; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Deneux-Tharaux, Catherine; Oladapo, Olufemi Taiwo; Souza, João Paulo; Tunçalp, Özge; Vogel, Joshua Peter; Gülmezoglu, Ahmet Metin

2015-06-21

In 1985, WHO stated that there was no justification for caesarean section (CS) rates higher than 10-15% at population-level. While the CS rates worldwide have continued to increase in an unprecedented manner over the subsequent three decades, concern has been raised about the validity of the 1985 landmark statement. We conducted a systematic review to identify, critically appraise and synthesize the analyses of the ecologic association between CS rates and maternal, neonatal and infant outcomes. Four electronic databases were searched for ecologic studies published between 2000 and 2014 that analysed the possible association between CS rates and maternal, neonatal or infant mortality or morbidity. Two reviewers performed study selection, data extraction and quality assessment independently. We identified 11,832 unique citations and eight studies were included in the review. Seven studies correlated CS rates with maternal mortality, five with neonatal mortality, four with infant mortality, two with LBW and one with stillbirths. Except for one, all studies were cross-sectional in design and five were global analyses of national-level CS rates versus mortality outcomes. Although the overall quality of the studies was acceptable; only two studies controlled for socio-economic factors and none controlled for clinical or demographic characteristics of the population. In unadjusted analyses, authors found a strong inverse relationship between CS rates and the mortality outcomes so that maternal, neonatal and infant mortality decrease as CS rates increase up to a certain threshold. In the eight studies included in this review, this threshold was at CS rates between 9 and 16%. However, in the two studies that adjusted for socio-economic factors, this relationship was either weakened or disappeared after controlling for these confounders. CS rates above the threshold of 9-16% were not associated with decreases in mortality outcomes regardless of adjustments. Our findings could be interpreted to mean that at CS rates below this threshold, socio-economic development may be driving the ecologic association between CS rates and mortality. On the other hand, at rates higher than this threshold, there is no association between CS and mortality outcomes regardless of adjustment. The ecological association between CS rates and relevant morbidity outcomes needs to be evaluated before drawing more definite conclusions at population level.

Enhancement of epidemic spread by noise and stochastic resonance in spatial network models with viral dynamics.

PubMed

Tuckwell, H C; Toubiana, L; Vibert, J F

2000-05-01

We extend a previous dynamical viral network model to include stochastic effects. The dynamical equations for the viral and immune effector densities within a host population of size n are bilinear, and the noise is white, additive, and Gaussian. The individuals are connected with an n x n transmission matrix, with terms which decay exponentially with distance. In a single individual, for the range of noise parameters considered, it is found that increasing the amplitude of the noise tends to decrease the maximum mean virion level, and slightly accelerate its attainment. Two different spatial dynamical models are employed to ascertain the effects of environmental stochasticity on viral spread. In the first model transmission is unrestricted and there is no threshold within individuals. This model has the advantage that it can be analyzed using a Fokker-Planck approach. The noise is found both to synchronize and uniformize the trajectories of the viral levels across the population of infected individuals, and thus to promote the epidemic spread of the virus. Quantitative measures of the speed of spread and overall amplitude of the epidemic are obtained as functions of the noise and virulence parameters. The mean amplitude increases steadily without threshold effects for a fixed value of the virulence as the noise amplitude sigma is increased, and there is no evidence of a stochastic resonance. However, the speed of transmission, both with respect to its mean and variance, undergoes rapid increases as sigma changes by relatively small amounts. In the second, more realistic, model, there is a threshold for infection and an upper limit to the transmission rate. There may be no spread of infection at all in the absence of noise. With increasing noise level and a low threshold, the mean maximum virion level grows quickly and shows a broad-based stochastic resonance effect. When the threshold within individuals is increased, the mean population virion level increases only slowly as sigma increases, until a critical value is reached at which the mean infection level suddenly increases. Similar results are obtained when the parameters of the model are also randomized across the population. We conclude with a discussion and a description of a diffusion approximation for a model in which stochasticity arises through random contacts rather than fluctuation in ambient virion levels.

Comparison of swirling strengths derived from two- and three-dimensional velocity fields in channel flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huai; Li, Danxun; Bai, Ruonan; Wang, Xingkui

2018-05-01

Swirling strength is an effective vortex indicator in wall turbulence, and it can be determined based on either two-dimensional (2D) or three-dimensional (3D) velocity fields, written as λci2D and λci3D, respectively. A comparison between λci2D and λci3D has been made in this paper in sliced XY, YZ, and XZ planes by using 3D DNS data of channel flow. The magnitude of λci2D in three orthogonal planes differs in the inner region, but the difference tends to diminish in the outer flow. The magnitude of λci3D exceeds each λci2D, and the square of λci3D is greater than the summation of squares of three λci2D. Extraction with λci2D in XY, YZ, and XZ planes yields different population densities and vortex sizes, i.e., in XZ plane, the vortices display the largest population density and the smallest size, and in XY and YZ planes the vortices are similar in size but fewer vortices are extracted in the XY plane in the inner layer. Vortex size increases inversely with the threshold used for growing the vortex region from background turbulence. When identical thresholds are used, the λci3D approach leads to a slightly smaller population density and a greater vortex radius than the λci2D approach. A threshold of 0.8 for the λci3D approach is approximately equivalent to a threshold of 1.5 for the λci2D approach.

Information transmission and detection thresholds in the vestibular nuclei: single neurons vs. population encoding

PubMed Central

Massot, Corentin; Chacron, Maurice J.

2011-01-01

Understanding how sensory neurons transmit information about relevant stimuli remains a major goal in neuroscience. Of particular relevance are the roles of neural variability and spike timing in neural coding. Peripheral vestibular afferents display differential variability that is correlated with the importance of spike timing; regular afferents display little variability and use a timing code to transmit information about sensory input. Irregular afferents, conversely, display greater variability and instead use a rate code. We studied how central neurons within the vestibular nuclei integrate information from both afferent classes by recording from a group of neurons termed vestibular only (VO) that are known to make contributions to vestibulospinal reflexes and project to higher-order centers. We found that, although individual central neurons had sensitivities that were greater than or equal to those of individual afferents, they transmitted less information. In addition, their velocity detection thresholds were significantly greater than those of individual afferents. This is because VO neurons display greater variability, which is detrimental to information transmission and signal detection. Combining activities from multiple VO neurons increased information transmission. However, the information rates were still much lower than those of equivalent afferent populations. Furthermore, combining responses from multiple VO neurons led to lower velocity detection threshold values approaching those measured from behavior (∼2.5 vs. 0.5–1°/s). Our results suggest that the detailed time course of vestibular stimuli encoded by afferents is not transmitted by VO neurons. Instead, they suggest that higher vestibular pathways must integrate information from central vestibular neuron populations to give rise to behaviorally observed detection thresholds. PMID:21307329

Influence of individual body size and variable thresholds on the incidence of a sneaker male reproductive tactic in Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Aubin-Horth, Nadia; Dodson, Julian J

2004-01-01

In the conditional strategy model, divergence in reproductive phenotypes depends on whether the individual's condition is above or below a genetically determined threshold. The relative contribution of the genetic and environmental components that lead to the expression of a reproductive tactic by an individual is not well understood. In the present field study, we determined when condition diverged between males that develop the mature parr phenotype and those that do not in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We also investigated the uniformity of the threshold value in the population. We sampled mature parr and immature males at age one, of the same population at six different sites for four consecutive years. Our study provides an example of the interaction of genotype and environment on the expression of a reproductive tactic. Size was significantly greater for future mature parr than for future immature males as early as 20 days after hatching (emergence), suggesting that there may be a parental effect component in the tactic adopted, since no exogenous feeding takes place before this time. Size advantage at emergence was maintained through the next spring at age one to different degrees depending on the year, thus suggesting the presence of an environmental component of tactic expression. Our results support the contention that within the conditional strategy, the environment faced by a male and his condition at the moment of reproduction consistently predicts neither the environment faced by his offspring nor the fitness they will obtain by expressing the same tactic as their father. Furthermore, higher mean size at a site did not always translate into a higher proportion of mature parr, therefore supporting the hypothesis that thresholds vary across habitats within the same population.