Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyst, M.

2012-12-01

The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses due to events of varying severities and recurrence intervals, annual premium rates can be set with some longer term risk planning in mind. However, this metric is particularly sensitive to high frequency, moderate magnitude events. Inclusion of earthquake aftershock sequence characteristics into the stochastic event set may have a strong impact on the AAL, depending on the time window of aftershocks that is taken into account. We will present our model of the aftershock-derived, time-dependent hazard for the region of the two earthquakes and will bring about a detailed view on regional, short-term hazard. Dealing with this short-term hazard poses a challenge to the earthquake insurance business. In this presentation we will look at these short-term hazard changes from a risk perspective and quantify the impact on earthquake risk in terms of the main risk metrics used in the industry.

Ho Chi Minh City adaptation to increasing risk of coastal and fluvial floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scussolini, Paolo; Lasage, Ralph

2016-04-01

Coastal megacities in southeast Asia are a hotspot of vulnerability to floods. In such contexts, the combination of fast socio-economic development and of climate change impacts on precipitation and sea level generates concerns about the flood damage to people and assets. This work focuses on Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for which we estimate the present and future direct risk from river and coastal floods. A model cascade is used that comprises the Saigon river basin and the urban network, plus the land-use-dependent damaging process. Changes in discharge for five return periods are simulated, enabling the probabilistic calculation of the expected annual economic damage to assets, for differnt scenarios of global emissions, local socio-economic growth, and land subsidence, up to year 2100. The implementation of a range of adaptation strategies is simulated, including building dykes, elevating, creating reservoirs, managing water and sediment upstream, flood-proofing, halting groundwater abstraction. Results are presented on 1) the relative weight of each future driver in determining the flood risk of Ho Chi Minh, and 2) the efficiency and feasibility of each adaptation strategy.

ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

2014-05-01

We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks (and by extension insured losses). We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharges using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series (EU-WATCH). From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.

Effect of tornado loads on transmission lines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ishac, M.F.; White, H.B.

Of all the populated areas in Canada, southwestern Ontario has experienced the highest tornado incidence and faces the greatest tornado damage. About 1 or 2 tornadoes per 10,000 km{sup 2} can be expected there annually. The probability of a tornado strike at a given point is very small but the probability of a transmission line being crossed by a tornado is significant. The purpose of this paper is to review the literature related to tornadoes in Ontario and to investigate the effect of tornado loads on transmission lines. Based on this investigation a design basis tornado loading for transmission towersmore » is proposed.« less

Effect of tornado loads on transmission lines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ishac, M.F.; White, H.B.

1994-12-31

Of all the populated areas in Canada, southwestern Ontario has experienced the highest tornado incidence and faces the greatest tornado damage. About 1 or 2 tornadoes per 10,000 km{sup 2} can be expected there annually. The probability of a tornado strike at a given point is very small but the probability of a transmission line being crossed by a tornado is significant. The purpose of this paper is to review the literature related to tornadoes in Ontario and to investigate the effect of tornado loads on transmission lines. Based on this investigation a design basis tornado loading for transmission towersmore » is proposed.« less

Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

2010-05-01

Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that is currently being implemented within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

Research on Characterization of Damage States in Continuous Fiber Composites Using Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-01

Composites Using Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation Annual Technical Report I by Vikrai K. Kinra Depdrtment of Aerospace Engineering r and Mechanics...and identify by b ko number) 7It is well known that composite materials suffer complex damage when they are.-ub- jected to either monotonic or...Characterization of Damage States in Continuous Fiber Composites Using Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation Annual Technical Report by Vikram K. Kinra Department

Comparing multistate expected damages, option price and cumulative prospect measures for valuing flood protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrow, Scott; Scott, Michael

2013-05-01

Floods are risky events ranging from small to catastrophic. Although expected flood damages are frequently used for economic policy analysis, alternative measures such as option price (OP) and cumulative prospect value exist. The empirical magnitude of these measures whose theoretical preference is ambiguous is investigated using case study data from Baltimore City. The outcome for the base case OP measure increases mean willingness to pay over the expected damage value by about 3%, a value which is increased with greater risk aversion, reduced by increased wealth, and only slightly altered by higher limits of integration. The base measure based on cumulative prospect theory is about 46% less than expected damages with estimates declining when alternative parameters are used. The method of aggregation is shown to be important in the cumulative prospect case which can lead to an estimate up to 41% larger than expected damages. Expected damages remain a plausible and the most easily computed measure for analysts.

Flood risk and cultural heritage: the case study of Florence (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

2016-04-01

Cultural heritage plays a key role for communities in terms of both identity and economic value. It is often under serious threat by natural hazards, nevertheless, quantitative assessments of risk are quite uncommon. This work addresses the flood risk assessment to cultural heritage in an exemplary art city, which is Florence, Italy. The risk assessment method here adopted borrows the most common definition of flood risk as the product of hazard, vulnerability and exposure, with some necessary adjustments. The risk estimation is carried out at the building scale for the whole UNESCO site, which coincides with the historical centre of the city. A distinction in macro- and micro-damage categories has been made according to the vulnerability of the objects at risk. Two damage macro-categories are selected namely cultural buildings and contents. Cultural buildings are classified in damage micro-categories as churches/religious complexes, libraries/archives and museums. The damages to the contents are estimated for four micro-categories: paintings, sculptures, books/prints and goldsmith's art. Data from hydraulic simulations for different recurrence scenarios, historical reports of the devastating 1966 flood and the cultural heritage recognition sheets allow estimating and mapping the annual expected number of works of art lost in absence of risk mitigation strategies.

Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.; Coe, J.A.

2009-01-01

We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

Regulation of ATM-Dependent DNA Damage Responses in Breast Cancer by the RhoGEF Net1

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

Science 279: 509-514. 5. Jaffe AB. et al., (2010) RhoGTPases: Biochemistry and Biology. Annu. Rev. Cell Dev. Biol. 21:247-269. 6. Rossman KL, et al...exchange factor Net1 is regulated by nuclear sequestration. J. Biol. Chem. 277:17, 14581-14588. 17. Harper JW, et al., (2007) The DNA Damage Response: Ten...Research (AACR) Annual Meeting and 2013 Annual Cancer Research Biochemistry Retreat Regulation of ATM-dependent DNA damage signaling in human breast

Flood Control, State Road and Ebner Coulees, La Crosse, Wisconsin, General Design Memorandum. Phase I. Plan Formulation and Hydrology and Draft Environmental Impact Statement.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-04-01

development of the floodplain by use of appropriate floodplain management techniques to reduce flood losses . h. In the event of future development or...the total annual flood damages in the study area. These losses include physical damages to land, buildings, equipment, and stocks of merchandise as...well as the loss of wages and business profits and the costs of emergency protection. Average annual commercial damages are estimated at $253,000. The

[Steinert disease].

PubMed

Bouhour, Françoise; Bost, Muriel; Vial, Christophe

2007-06-01

Steinert disease, also known as myotonic dystrophy type 1, is a muscle disease characterized by myotonia and by multiorgan damage that combines various degrees of muscle weakness, arrhythmia and/or cardiac conduction disorders, cataract, endocrine damage, sleep disorders and baldness. It is the most frequent of the adult-onset muscular dystrophies; its prevalence is estimated at 1/20,000 inhabitants. Diagnosis is confirmed by the demonstration of an abnormality at the 19q13-2 locus, with the use of molecular genetic techniques. Its transmission is autosomal dominant, and anticipation may occur, that is, disease may be more severe and occur earlier in offspring. Genetic counseling is often delicate for this condition because of the great variability of clinical expression, both within and between families. Prenatal diagnosis is proposed especially for maternal transmission because of the severity of the possible neonatal forms. Management ideally includes multidisciplinary annual follow-up. Disease course is usually slowly progressive but rapid deterioration may sometimes be observed. Life expectancy is reduced by the increased mortality associated with the pulmonary and cardiac complications.

The market trend analysis and prospects of scaffolds for stem cells.

PubMed

Lee, Seou; Kwon, Taehoon; Chung, Eun Kyung; Lee, Joon Woo

2014-01-01

Scaffolds are one of the three most important elements constituting the basic concept of regenerative medicine, and are included in the core technology of regenerative medicine along with stem cells and tissue engineering. Stem cells are very important technology because they are directly responsible for the regenerative treatment of the disease and the damaged tissue, but with regards to the technology and the products that use stem cells exclusively, there is a technical limitation of limited survival rate and the engraftment rate of the transplanted cell, and rather than recovering the damaged tissue fundamentally, there is a limit that the concept is more of just another medicine treatment using cells. A scaffold is a natural or synthetic biocompatible material transplanted into a human body to be used as the exclusive treatment or as an assisted method of another treatment of a disease and for the recovery of damaged tissue. Therefore, according to the characteristics of the tissue to be applied, scaffolds must have the characteristics such as the excellent biocompatibility, biodegradability, minimum immunity and inflammation, proper mechanical strength and interaction between the material and the cells. The world stem cell market was approximately 2.715 billion dollars in 2010, and with a growth rate of 16.8% annually, a market of 6.877 billion dollars will be formed in 2016. From 2017, the expected annual growth rate is 10.6%, which would expand the market to 11.38 billion dollars by 2021. Meanwhile, the world scaffold element technology market was approximately 4.57 million dollars in 2013, and by increasing 13.4% annually, it is estimated to expand to 10.63 million dollars by 2020. The Korean scaffold element technology market was about 22 million dollars in 2013, and with a steady growth of approximately 13.4% every year, it is prospected to be about 52 million dollars by 2020. In comparison to the medical material and medicine sales growth rate, the future scaffold element technology market is judged to be higher in growth possibility.

Financial expectations of first-year veterinary students.

PubMed

Lim, Christine C; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Root Kustritz, Margaret V; Molgaard, Laura K; Lee, David

2015-07-15

To assess student awareness of the financial costs of pursuing a veterinary education, to determine student expectations for financial returns of a veterinary career, and to identify associations between student debt and factors such as future career plans or personality type. Survey. First-year veterinary students at the University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine. In 2013, prior to the first day of class, all incoming first-year students received an email invitation to complete an online survey. The survey contained questions about demographics, current financial situation, current debt, expected debt at graduation, expected annual income following graduation, intent to pursue specialty training, and Myers-Briggs personality type. 72 of 102 (71%) students completed the survey; 65 respondents answered all relevant questions and provided usable data. Student responses for expected debt at graduation were comparable to national averages for veterinary college graduates; responses for expected annual income following graduation were lower than averages for University of Minnesota veterinary college graduates and national averages. However, students predicted even lower annual income if they did not attend veterinary college. Expected debt and expected annual income were not correlated with factors such as personality type or future career plans. Results indicated that first-year veterinary students were aware of the financial costs of their veterinary education and had realistic expectations for future salaries. For typical veterinary students, attending veterinary college appeared to be financially worthwhile, given lower expected earnings otherwise.

Applying stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-03-01

Analyzing insurance-loss data we derive stochastic storm-damage functions for residential buildings. On district level we fit power-law relations between daily loss and maximum wind speed, typically spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude. The estimated exponents for 439 German districts roughly range from 8 to 12. In addition, we find correlations among the parameters and socio-demographic data, which we employ in a simplified parametrization of the damage function with just 3 independent parameters for each district. A Monte Carlo method is used to generate loss estimates and confidence bounds of daily and annual storm damages in Germany. Our approach reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitudes.

EFFECT OF STRENGTHENING AT EXPECTED DAMAGING ZONE OF A RC MEMBER WITH DAMAGED ANCHORAGE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chijiwa, Nobuhiro; Kawanaka, Isao; Maekawa, Koichi

When a reinforced concrete member having cracks at the anchorage zones is loaded, diagonal crack is formed from the tip of the exsisting crack, and it lead s to brittle shaer failure. A reinforced concrete beam containing corrosion cracks at the anchorage zone were strengthened with sheets at the expected damaging zones, and tested in 3-point loading. Th e test result shows that the load capacity of the strengthened beam was the same to that of the repli cate beam with no damage at the anchorage zones and contained enough shear reinforcement to develop flexural failure. It means that strenghtneing at the expected damaging zone with keeping corrosion cr acks along to the tensile reinforcements at the anchorage zones may improve the load capacity of the damaged reinforced concrete.

Incidence of insects, diseases, and other damaging agents in Oregon forests.

Treesearch

Paul A. Dunham

2008-01-01

This report uses data from a network of forest inventory plots sampled at two points in time, annual aerial insect and disease surveys, and specialized pest damage surveys to quantify the incidence and impact of insects, diseases, and other damaging agents on Oregon's forests. The number and volume of trees damaged or killed by various agents is summarized....

49 CFR 579.24 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more trailers annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and... code, the number of such property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports...

49 CFR 579.24 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more trailers annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and... code, the number of such property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports...

49 CFR 579.21 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more light vehicles annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... codes to be included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints... or rollover indicated by the code. If an underlying property damage claim, consumer complaint...

49 CFR 579.24 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more trailers annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and... code, the number of such property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports...

49 CFR 579.24 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more trailers annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and... code, the number of such property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports...

49 CFR 579.21 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more light vehicles annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... codes to be included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints... or rollover indicated by the code. If an underlying property damage claim, consumer complaint...

49 CFR 579.24 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more trailers annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and... code, the number of such property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports...

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the uncertainties of the final risk estimate will be helpful to decision makers to make better informed decisions and attributing this uncertainty to the input parameters helps to identify which parameters are most important when it comes to uncertainty in the final estimate and should therefore deserve additional attention in further research.

Environmental Assessment of the Reduce Bird Air Strike Hazards (BASH) Along East Tollgate Creek, Buckley Air Force Base, Colorado

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-22

Aircraft collisions with birds and other wildlife annually cause millions of dollars in aircraft damage and may result in loss of life and aircraft...collisions with birds and other wildlife annually cause millions of dollars in aircraft damage and may result in loss of life and aircraft. More...Action would support the BASH program and meet the AF goal of reducing the loss of life and of valuable aircraft and other resources. Figure 1-2

Post-traumatic stress disorder in disaster survivors.

PubMed

North, C S; Smith, E M

1990-12-01

In spite of the difficulties inherent in the study of traumatic stress in disaster victims, the benefit of obtaining more knowledge on the subject is potentially great, especially considering the numbers of individuals affected. Recent estimates of the frequency of world-wide traumatic events have determined that almost two million households annually experience damages and/or injuries from fire, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes alone. The population that is at risk is expected to grow exponentially with our expanding technology, making it even more vital to acquire knowledge to help the growing number of future disaster victims. Additionally, disaster research can contribute to a better understanding of PTSD and human coping processes that can be generalized to more ordinary stress situations. In the meantime, survivors of major catastrophes who experience acute symptoms of PTSD such as insomnia, nightmares, and jumpiness should be observed for nonresolution of symptoms over time, especially if there is a premorbid history of psychopathology or character problems. Otherwise, survivors may benefit from reassurance that PTSD symptoms are common in the short-term postdisaster period and that they can usually be expected to dissipate with time.

40 CFR 63.1431 - Process vent annual epoxides emission factor plan requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., recovery, or recapture device, along with the expected percent efficiency. (iii) Annual emissions after the... section, kg/yr. R = Expected control efficiency of the combustion, recovery, or recapture device, percent....1426(c) to determine the epoxide control efficiency of the combustion, recovery, or recapture device...

40 CFR 63.1431 - Process vent annual epoxides emission factor plan requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., recovery, or recapture device, along with the expected percent efficiency. (iii) Annual emissions after the... section, kg/yr. R = Expected control efficiency of the combustion, recovery, or recapture device, percent....1426(c) to determine the epoxide control efficiency of the combustion, recovery, or recapture device...

Fracture and damage; Winter Annual Meeting of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Anaheim, CA, Nov. 8-13, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagar, Arvind (Editor)

1992-01-01

The latest developments in the area of fracture and damage at high temperatures are discussed, in particular: modeling; analysis and experimental techniques for interface damage in composites including the effects of residual stresses and temperatures; and crack growth, inelastic deformation and fracture parameters for isotropic materials. Also included are damage modeling and experiments at elevated temperatures.

49 CFR 579.21 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more light vehicles annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... codes to be included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints... report shall state, separately by each such code, the number of such property damage claims, consumer...

Skeletal Muscle Cell Damage Indicators in Volleyball Players after the Competitive Phase of the Annual Training Cycle.

PubMed

Radojewski, Mateusz; Podgórski, Tomasz; Pospieszna, Barbara; Kryściak, Jakub; Śliwicka, Ewa; Karolkiewicz, Joanna

2018-06-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of the competitive phase on physiological and metabolic indices and selected markers of skeletal muscle damage in male volleyball players. The study group consisted of 24 young male volleyball players. During the study, participants underwent two series of measurements, before and after the competitive phase of the annual training cycle. In both study terms, players performed an incremental treadmill running test to determine their ventilatory threshold and maximal oxygen uptake. Venous and capillary blood samples were taken for biochemical analysis. There was no significant difference in the physical fitness level, values of biochemical variables and the level of antioxidant status in the surveyed athletes between the two study terms. Significant changes within skeletal muscle damage markers were observed between the beginning and the end of the competitive period: an increase in the concentration of cellular DNA damage products (8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine; p < 0.0001) and a decrease in muscle activity of creatine kinase (p<0.05). In spite of the increment in cell damage markers, the unaffected level of physiological and biochemical markers may indicate that the experienced cell destruction did not negatively affect the level of physical fitness. When designing the annual training plan, coaches and athletes need to take into consideration that temporary physiological states - oxidative stress and inflammation - may be required to attain training adaptation.

77 FR 60114 - Agency Information Collection Activities Under OMB Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-02

... approximately 100 entities on a daily basis. The recordkeeping requirement of section 22.5 is expected to apply to approximately 100 entities on an approximately annual basis. Based on experience with analogous... required by section 22.2(g) is expected to require about 100 hours annually per entity, for a total burden...

Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadie, Luis Maria; Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa

2017-01-01

A quantification of present and future mean annual losses due to extreme coastal events can be crucial for adequate decision making on adaptation to climate change in coastal areas around the globe. However, this approach is limited when uncertainty needs to be accounted for. In this paper, we assess coastal flood risk from sea-level rise and extreme events in 120 major cities around the world using an alternative stochastic approach that accounts for uncertainty. Probability distributions of future relative (local) sea-level rise have been used for each city, under three IPPC emission scenarios, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The approach allows a continuous stochastic function to be built to assess yearly evolution of damages from 2030 to 2100. Additionally, we present two risk measures that put low-probability, high-damage events in the spotlight: the Value at Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES), which enable the damages to be estimated when a certain risk level is exceeded. This level of acceptable risk can be defined involving different stakeholders to guide progressive adaptation strategies. The method presented here is new in the field of economics of adaptation and offers a much broader picture of the challenges related to dealing with climate impacts. Furthermore, it can be applied to assess not only adaptation needs but also to put adaptation into a timeframe in each city.

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

2009-04-01

The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing period, which would certainly be a major difficulty for the expected low-frequency/high intensity loss case of Istanbul.

Sulfuric Acid and Soot Particles in Aircraft Exhaust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pueschel, Rudolf F.; Verma, S.; Ferry, G. V.; Goodman, J.; Strawa, A. W.; Gore, Warren J. Y. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Aircraft have become the fastest, fairly convenient and, in most cases of long-distance travel, most economical mode of travel. This is reflected in the increase of commercial air traffic at a rate of 6% per year since 1978. Future annual growth rates of passenger miles of 4% for domestic and 6% for international routes are projected. A still larger annual increase of 8.5% is expected for the Asia/Pacific region. To meet that growth, Boeing predicts the addition of 15,900 new aircraft to the world's fleets, valued at more than $1.1 trillion, within the next 20 years. The largest concern of environmental consequences of aircraft emissions deals with ozone (O3), because: (1) the O3 layer protects the blaspheme from short-ultraviolet radiation that can cause damage to human, animal and plant life, and possibly affect agricultural production and the marine food chain; (2) O3 is important for the production of the hydroxyl radical (OH) which, in turn, is responsible for the destruction of other greenhouse gases, e.g., methane (CH4) and for the removal of other pollutants, and (3) O3 is a greenhouse gas. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Micro-deval coarse aggregate test evaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-05-01

Studded tire use in Oregon results in millions of dollars of pavement damage annually. Accurate tests are needed to qualify durable aggregate for pavements to resist studded tire damage. ODOT currently uses the Los Angeles abrasion test as one of the...

A Probabilistic Typhoon Risk Model for Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haseemkunju, A.; Smith, D. F.; Brolley, J. M.

2017-12-01

Annually, the coastal Provinces of low-lying Mekong River delta region in the southwest to the Red River Delta region in Northern Vietnam is exposed to severe wind and flood risk from landfalling typhoons. On average, about two to three tropical cyclones with a maximum sustained wind speed of >=34 knots make landfall along the Vietnam coast. Recently, Typhoon Wutip (2013) crossed Central Vietnam as a category 2 typhoon causing significant damage to properties. As tropical cyclone risk is expected to increase with increase in exposure and population growth along the coastal Provinces of Vietnam, insurance/reinsurance, and capital markets need a comprehensive probabilistic model to assess typhoon risk in Vietnam. In 2017, CoreLogic has expanded the geographical coverage of its basin-wide Western North Pacific probabilistic typhoon risk model to estimate the economic and insured losses from landfalling and by-passing tropical cyclones in Vietnam. The updated model is based on 71 years (1945-2015) of typhoon best-track data and 10,000 years of a basin-wide simulated stochastic tracks covering eight countries including Vietnam. The model is capable of estimating damage from wind, storm surge and rainfall flooding using vulnerability models, which relate typhoon hazard to building damageability. The hazard and loss models are validated against past historical typhoons affecting Vietnam. Notable typhoons causing significant damage in Vietnam are Lola (1993), Frankie (1996), Xangsane (2006), and Ketsana (2009). The central and northern coastal provinces of Vietnam are more vulnerable to wind and flood hazard, while typhoon risk in the southern provinces are relatively low.

Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

Flood Damages- savings potential for Austrian municipalities and evidence of adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unterberger, C.

2016-12-01

Recent studies show that the number of extreme precipitation events has increased globally and will continue to do so in the future. These observations are particularly true for central, northern and north-eastern Europe. These changes in the patterns of extreme events have direct repercussions for policy makers. Rojas et al. (2013) find that until 2080, annual damages could increase by a factor of 17 (from €5,5 bn/year today to € 98 bn/year in 2080) in the event that no adaptation measures are taken. Steininger et al. (2015) find that climate and weather induced extreme events account for an annual current welfare loss of about € 1 billion in Austria. As a result, policy makers will need to understand the interaction between hazard, exposure and vulnerability, with the goal of achieving flood risk reduction. Needed is a better understanding of where exposure, vulnerability and eventually flood risk are highest, i.e. where to reduce risk first and which factors drive existing flood risk. This article analyzes direct flood losses as reported by 1153 Austrian municipalities between 2005 and 2013. To achieve comparability between flood damages and municipalities' ordinary spending, a "vulnerability threshold" is introduced suggesting that flood damages should be lower than 5% of municipalities' average annual ordinary spending. It is found that the probability that flood damages exceed this vulnerability threshold is 12%. To provide a reliable estimate for that exceedance probability the joint distribution of damages and spending is modelled by means of a copula approach. Based on the joint distribution, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to derive uncertainty ranges for the exceedance probability. To analyze the drivers of flood damages and the effect they have on municipalities' spending, two linear regression models are estimated. Hereby obtained results suggest that damages increase significantly for those municipalities located along the shores of the river Danube and decrease significantly for municipalities that experienced floods in the past- indicating successful adaptation. As for the relationship between flood damages and municipalities' spending, the regression results indicate that flood damages have a significant positive impact.

Micro-Deval coarse aggregate test evaluation : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-05-01

Studded tire use in Oregon results in millions of dollars of pavement damage annually. Accurate tests are needed to qualify durable aggregate for pavements to resist studded tire damage. ODOT currently uses the Los Angeles abrasion test as one of the...

The Effects of Revealed Information on Catastrophe Loss Projection Models' Characterization of Risk: Damage Vulnerability Evidence from Florida.

PubMed

Karl, J Bradley; Medders, Lorilee A; Maroney, Patrick F

2016-06-01

We examine whether the risk characterization estimated by catastrophic loss projection models is sensitive to the revelation of new information regarding risk type. We use commercial loss projection models from two widely employed modeling firms to estimate the expected hurricane losses of Florida Atlantic University's building stock, both including and excluding secondary information regarding hurricane mitigation features that influence damage vulnerability. We then compare the results of the models without and with this revealed information and find that the revelation of additional, secondary information influences modeled losses for the windstorm-exposed university building stock, primarily evidenced by meaningful percent differences in the loss exceedance output indicated after secondary modifiers are incorporated in the analysis. Secondary risk characteristics for the data set studied appear to have substantially greater impact on probable maximum loss estimates than on average annual loss estimates. While it may be intuitively expected for catastrophe models to indicate that secondary risk characteristics hold value for reducing modeled losses, the finding that the primary value of secondary risk characteristics is in reduction of losses in the "tail" (low probability, high severity) events is less intuitive, and therefore especially interesting. Further, we address the benefit-cost tradeoffs that commercial entities must consider when deciding whether to undergo the data collection necessary to include secondary information in modeling. Although we assert the long-term benefit-cost tradeoff is positive for virtually every entity, we acknowledge short-term disincentives to such an effort. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Rapid assessment of wildfire damage using Forest Inventory data: A case in Georgia

Treesearch

Richard A. Harper; John W. Coulsten; Jeffery A. Turner

2009-01-01

The rapid assessment of damage caused by natural disasters is essential for planning the appropriate amount of disaster relief funds and public communication. Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data provided initial estimates of damage to timberland in a timely manner to State leaders during the 2007 Georgia Bay Complex Wildfire in southeast Georgia. FIA plots...

A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

2017-04-01

The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for the entire study area.

Ecosystem services impacts associated with environmental reactive nitrogen release in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Nitrogen release to the environment from human activities can have important and costly impacts on human health, recreation, transportation, fisheries, and ecosystem health. Recent efforts to quantify these damage costs have identified annual damages associated with reactive nit...

Windstorms and Insured Loss in the UK: Modelling the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewston, R.; Dorling, S.; Viner, D.

2006-12-01

Worldwide, the costs of catastrophic weather events have increased dramatically in recent years, with average annual insured losses rising from a negligible level in 1950 to over $10bn in 2005 (Munich Re 2006). When losses from non-catastrophic weather related events are included this figure is doubled. A similar trend is exhibited in the UK with claims totalling over £6bn for the period 1998-2003, more than twice the value for the previous five years (Dlugolecki 2004). More than 70% of this loss is associated with storms. Extratropical cyclones are the main source of wind damage in the UK. In this research, a windstorm model is constructed to simulate patterns of insured loss associated with wind damage in the UK. Observed daily maximum wind gust speeds and a variety of socioeconomic datasets are utilised in a GIS generated model, which is verified against actual domestic property insurance claims data from two major insurance providers. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme events which are anticipated to accompany climate change in the UK will have a direct affect on general insurance, with the greatest impact expected to be on property insurance (Dlugolecki 2004). A range of experiments will be run using Regional Climate Model output data, in conjunction with the windstorm model, to simulate possible future losses resulting from climate change, assuming no alteration to the vulnerability of the building stock. Losses for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070- 2100 will be simulated under the various IPCC emissions scenarios. Munich Re (2006). Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2005. Munich, Munich Re: 52. Dlugolecki, A. (2004). A Changing Climate for Insurance - A summary report for Chief Executives and Policymakers, Association of British Insurers

Assessing the Social and Environmental Costs of Institutional ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We estimate the damage costs associated with the institutional nitrogen (N) footprint and explore how this information could be used to create more sustainable institutions. Potential damages associated with the release of NOx and N2O to air and release of N to water were estimated using a cost per unit N approach. Annual potential damage costs to human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems associated with the N footprint of institutions were $10.5 million USD (2014) at the University of Virginia (UVA) and $3.04 million at the University of New Hampshire (UNH). Costs associated with the release of nitrogen oxides (NOx) to human health, in particular the use of coal-derived energy, were the largest component of damage at UVA. At UNH the energy N footprint is much lower because of a co-generation source, and thus the majority of damages were associated with food production. Annual damages associated with release of N from food production were very similar at the two universities ($1.37 vs. $1.66 million at UVA and UNH respectively). These damages also have implications for the extent and scale at which the damages are felt. For example, impacts to human health from energy and transportation are generally larger near the power plants and roads, while impacts from food production can be distant from the campus. Making this information available to institutions can improve their understanding of the damages associated with the different N forms and sourc

Combined effect of microbial and chemical control agents on subterranean termites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Subterranean termites are responsible for several billion dollars in damage in the United States annually, including control and repair costs. Formosan subterranean termites (FST) cause a large proportion of this damage. The fungus Paecilomyces fumosoroseus (Pfr) has been previously shown to control...

Reducing borer damage in oak regeneration and sawtimber

Treesearch

Jimmy R. Galford

1989-01-01

Borers cause millions of dollars in damaged wood annually to oak stands, and adversely affect the form and vigor of oak regeneration. A moth and four species of beetles cause most of the damage; the carpenterworm moth, the oak timberworm, the red oak borer, the living-beech borer, and the white oak borer. The larvae of these insects chew holes in the wood ranging from...

Assessing hail risk for a building portfolio by generating stochastic events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolet, Pierrick; Choffet, Marc; Demierre, Jonathan; Imhof, Markus; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Nguyen, Liliane; Voumard, Jérémie

2015-04-01

Among the natural hazards affecting buildings, hail is one of the most costly and is nowadays a major concern for building insurance companies. In Switzerland, several costly events were reported these last years, among which the July 2011 event, which cost around 125 million EUR to the Aargauer public insurance company (North-western Switzerland). This study presents the new developments in a stochastic model which aims at evaluating the risk for a building portfolio. Thanks to insurance and meteorological radar data of the 2011 Aargauer event, vulnerability curves are proposed by comparing the damage rate to the radar intensity (i.e. the maximum hailstone size reached during the event, deduced from the radar signal). From these data, vulnerability is defined by a two-step process. The first step defines the probability for a building to be affected (i.e. to claim damages), while the second, if the building is affected, attributes a damage rate to the building from a probability distribution specific to the intensity class. To assess the risk, stochastic events are then generated by summing a set of Gaussian functions with 6 random parameters (X and Y location, maximum hailstone size, standard deviation, eccentricity and orientation). The location of these functions is constrained by a general event shape and by the position of the previously defined functions of the same event. For each generated event, the total cost is calculated in order to obtain a distribution of event costs. The general events parameters (shape, size, …) as well as the distribution of the Gaussian parameters are inferred from two radar intensity maps, namely the one of the aforementioned event, and a second from an event which occurred in 2009. After a large number of simulations, the hailstone size distribution obtained in different regions is compared to the distribution inferred from pre-existing hazard maps, built from a larger set of radar data. The simulation parameters are then adjusted by trial and error, in order to get the best reproduction of the expected distributions. The value of the mean annual risk obtained using the model is also compared to the mean annual risk calculated using directly the hazard maps. According to the first results, the return period of an event inducing a total damage cost equal or greater than 125 million EUR for the Aargauer insurance company would be of around 10 to 40 years.

AHP for Risk Management Based on Expected Utility Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, Rumiko; Miyagi, Hayao

This paper presents a model of decision-making considering the risk assessment. The conventional evaluation in AHP is considered to be a kind of utility. When dealing with the risk, however, it is necessary to consider the probability of damage. In order to take risk into decision-making problem, we construct AHP based on expected utility. The risk is considered as a related element of criterion rather than criterion itself. The expected utility is integrated, considering that satisfaction is positive utility and damage by risk is negative utility. Then, evaluation in AHP is executed using the expected utility.

The value of coastal wetlands for hurricane protection.

PubMed

Costanza, Robert; Pérez-Maqueo, Octavio; Martinez, M Luisa; Sutton, Paul; Anderson, Sharolyn J; Mulder, Kenneth

2008-06-01

Coastal wetlands reduce the damaging effects of hurricanes on coastal communities. A regression model using 34 major US hurricanes since 1980 with the natural log of damage per unit gross domestic product in the hurricane swath as the dependent variable and the natural logs of wind speed and wetland area in the swath as the independent variables was highly significant and explained 60% of the variation in relative damages. A loss of 1 ha of wetland in the model corresponded to an average USD 33,000 (median = USD 5000) increase in storm damage from specific storms. Using this relationship, and taking into account the annual probability of hits by hurricanes of varying intensities, we mapped the annual value of coastal wetlands by 1 km x 1 km pixel and by state. The annual value ranged from USD 250 to USD 51,000 ha(-1) yr(-1), with a mean of USD 8240 ha(-1) yr(-1) (median = USD 3230 ha(-1) yr(-1)) significantly larger than previous estimates. Coastal wetlands in the US were estimated to currently provide USD 23.2 billion yr(-1) in storm protection services. Coastal wetlands function as valuable, selfmaintaining "horizontal levees" for storm protection, and also provide a host of other ecosystem services that vertical levees do not. Their restoration and preservation is an extremely cost-effective strategy for society.

78 FR 10261 - Pipeline Safety: Information Collection Activities, Revision to Gas Distribution Annual Report

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-13

... causes from Part I of the ``Damage Information Reporting Tool (DIRT)--Field Form.'' These cause... commodity type transported, similar to the gas transmission and hazardous liquid reporting forms. These... distribution annual report with the incident causes from the gas distribution incident reporting form (PHMSA F...

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2012-08-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate. The framework estimates hazard at high resolution (~1 km2) using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood routing model, and importantly, a flood extent downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case-study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard and damage estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database and damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

U.S. Coastal Flood Damage Reduction Projects: Federal Authorization and Investment Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, N. T.

2015-12-01

The 2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action estimated the potential cumulative future economic impacts of storm surge and sea-level rise on U.S. coasts during this century at 5 trillion (2014 dollars) if no adaptation measures are implemented. These impacts drop to 0.8 trillion if investments are made in cost-effective adaptations and protections. Awareness of flood risk and its long-term fiscal impact historically has proven insufficient to motivate pre-disaster land use changes and investments in mitigation and protection. While many adaptations and protections fall largely under state and local authority, some stakeholders are interested in federal coastal flood protection projects, including projects by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Since the 1950s, Congress has authorized the Corps to construct specific coastal projects. The broad vision, strategy, and priorities for the federal role in coastal flood damage reduction projects nonetheless remain ill-defined. This research analyzes (1) the authorization and appropriations trends for Corps coastal storm damage reduction projects, and (2) how Corps feasibility studies account for and address coastal flood hazards. Identified trends include: emergency appropriations for storm-damaged areas outstrip annual investments in coastal flood projects; the rate at which projects are congressionally approved for construction outpaces the rate at which construction is funded; and how coastal protection projects are evaluated in Corps feasibility studies shows variation and change in agency practices. These trends have consequences; they affect public and local expectations when projects begin providing protection benefits, and may influence investments in other adaptation measures. These trends also raise questions for policymakers at all levels and for scientists and practitioners interested in coastal flood resilience.

Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer - bringing risk information to practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip

2017-04-01

The economic losses associated with flooding are huge and rising. As a result, there is increasing attention for strategic flood risk assessments at the global scale. In response, the last few years have seen a large growth in the number of global flood models. At the same time, users and practitioners require flood risk information in a format that is easy to use, understandable, transparent, and actionable. In response, we have developed the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer (wri.org/floods). The Analyzer is a free, online, easy to use, tool for assessing global river flood risk at the scale of countries, states, and river basins, using data generated by the state of the art GLOFRIS global flood risk model. The Analyzer allows users to assess flood risk on-the-fly in terms of expected annual urban damage, and expected annual population and GDP affected by floods. Analyses can be carried out for current conditions and under future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development. We will demonstrate the tool, and discuss several of its applications in practice. In the past 15 months, the tool has been visited and used by more than 12,000 unique users from almost every country, including many users from the World Bank, Pacific Disaster Center, Red Cross Climate Centre, as well as many journalists from major international news outlets. Use cases will be presented from these user communities. We will also present ongoing research to improve the user functionality of the tool in the coming year. This includes the inclusion of coastal flood risk, assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation, and assessing the impacts of land subsidence and urban extension on risk.

Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer - bringing risk information to practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Bierkens, M. F.; Bouwman, A.; Diaz Loaiza, A.; Eilander, D.; Englhardt, J.; Erkens, G.; Hofste, R.; Iceland, C.; Willem, L.; Luo, T.; Muis, S.; Scussolini, P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Van Beek, L. P.; Van Bemmel, B.; Van Huijstee, J.; Van Wesenbeeck, B.; Vatvani, D.; Verlaan, M.; Winsemius, H.

2016-12-01

The economic losses associated with flooding are huge and rising. As a result, there is increasing attention for strategic flood risk assessments at the global scale. In response, the last few years have seen a large growth in the number of global flood models. At the same time, users and practitioners require flood risk information in a format that is easy to use, understandable, transparent, and actionable. In response, we have developed the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer (wri.org/floods). The Analyzer is a free, online, easy to use, tool for assessing global river flood risk at the scale of countries, states, and river basins, using data generated by the state of the art GLOFRIS global flood risk model. The Analyzer allows users to assess flood risk on-the-fly in terms of expected annual urban damage, and expected annual population and GDP affected by floods. Analyses can be carried out for current conditions and under future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development. We will demonstrate the tool, and discuss several of its applications in practice. In the past 15 months, the tool has been visited and used by more than 12,000 unique users from almost every country, including many users from the World Bank, Pacific Disaster Center, Red Cross Climate Centre, as well as many journalists from major international news outlets. Use cases will be presented from these user communities. We will also present ongoing research to improve the user functionality of the tool in the coming year. This includes the inclusion of coastal flood risk, assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation, and assessing the impacts of land subsidence and urban extension on risk.

The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

2015-01-01

Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

Agricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wein, Anne; David Mitchell,; Peters, Jeff; John Rowden,; Johnny Tran,; Alessandra Corsi,; Dinitz, Laura B.

2016-01-01

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perennial crops, and livestock in California exposed to ARkStorm flooding. Statewide, flood damage is incurred on approximately 23% of annual crop acreage, 5% of perennial crop acreage, and 5% of livestock, e.g., dairy, feedlot, and poultry, acreage. The sum of field repair costs, forgone income, and product replacement costs span $3.7 and $7.1 billion (2009) for a range of inundation durations. Perennial crop loss estimates dominate, and the vulnerability of orchards and vineyards has likely increased with recent expansion. Crop reestablishment delays from levee repair and dewatering more than double annual crop losses in the delta islands, assuming the fragile system does not remain permanently flooded. The exposure of almost 200,000 dairy cows to ARkStorm flooding poses livestock evacuation challenges. Read More: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29NH.1527-6996.0000174

20 CFR 666.120 - What are the procedures for negotiating annual levels of performance?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... annual levels of performance? 666.120 Section 666.120 Employees' Benefits EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING... State Measures of Performance § 666.120 What are the procedures for negotiating annual levels of... is used to review the State's expected levels of performance. The instructions may require that...

Pacific Northwest Laboratory annual report for 1990 to the DOE Office of Energy Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toburen, L.H.; Stults, B.R.; Mahaffey, J.A.

Part four of the PNL Annual Report for 1990 includes research in physical sciences. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases in the following areas: Dosimetry Research; Measurement Science; Radiological and Chemical Physics; Radiation Dosimetry; Radiation Biophysics; and Modelling Cellular Response to Genetic Damage. (FL)

Proceedings of the Annual Mechanics of Composites Review (6th),

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-02-01

containing and resisting damage in compression-loaded composite structural components. 176( CONTRACTS INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS OF IMPACT DAMAGE NASI -15888 79...EVALUATION OF THE DURABILITY AND DAMAGE TOLERANCE OF CTOL COMPOS- ITE STRUCTURES NASI -15107 77 October 12 - 80 October 11 Project Engineer: Edward P...DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORTHOTROPIC HOLE ELEMENT NASI -15890 79 July 9 - 80 September 24 Project Engineer: Dr. John H. Crews, Jr. Mail Stop 18BE NASA Langley

Assessing the Social and Environmental Costs of Institution Nitrogen Footprints

PubMed Central

Leach, Allison M.; Castner, Elizabeth A.; Galloway, James N.

2017-01-01

Abstract This article estimates the damage costs associated with the institutional nitrogen (N) footprint and explores how this information could be used to create more sustainable institutions. Potential damages associated with the release of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), and nitrous oxide (N2O) to air and release of nitrogen to water were estimated using existing values and a cost per unit of nitrogen approach. These damage cost values were then applied to two universities. Annual potential damage costs to human health, agriculture, and natural ecosystems associated with the N footprint of institutions were $11.0 million (2014) at the University of Virginia (UVA) and $3.04 million at the University of New Hampshire (UNH). Costs associated with the release of nitrogen oxides to human health, in particular the use of coal-derived energy, were the largest component of damage at UVA. At UNH the energy N footprint is much lower because of a landfill cogeneration source, and thus the majority of damages were associated with food production. Annual damages associated with release of nitrogen from food production were very similar at the two universities ($1.80 million vs. $1.66 million at UVA and UNH, respectively). These damages also have implications for the extent and scale at which the damages are felt. For example, impacts to human health from energy and transportation are generally larger near the power plants and roads, while impacts from food production can be distant from the campus. Making this information available to institutions and communities can improve their understanding of the damages associated with the different nitrogen forms and sources, and inform decisions about nitrogen reduction strategies. PMID:29350221

Assessing the Social and Environmental Costs of Institution Nitrogen Footprints.

PubMed

Compton, Jana E; Leach, Allison M; Castner, Elizabeth A; Galloway, James N

2017-04-01

This article estimates the damage costs associated with the institutional nitrogen (N) footprint and explores how this information could be used to create more sustainable institutions. Potential damages associated with the release of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH 3 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to air and release of nitrogen to water were estimated using existing values and a cost per unit of nitrogen approach. These damage cost values were then applied to two universities. Annual potential damage costs to human health, agriculture, and natural ecosystems associated with the N footprint of institutions were $11.0 million (2014) at the University of Virginia (UVA) and $3.04 million at the University of New Hampshire (UNH). Costs associated with the release of nitrogen oxides to human health, in particular the use of coal-derived energy, were the largest component of damage at UVA. At UNH the energy N footprint is much lower because of a landfill cogeneration source, and thus the majority of damages were associated with food production. Annual damages associated with release of nitrogen from food production were very similar at the two universities ($1.80 million vs. $1.66 million at UVA and UNH, respectively). These damages also have implications for the extent and scale at which the damages are felt. For example, impacts to human health from energy and transportation are generally larger near the power plants and roads, while impacts from food production can be distant from the campus. Making this information available to institutions and communities can improve their understanding of the damages associated with the different nitrogen forms and sources, and inform decisions about nitrogen reduction strategies.

Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100.

PubMed

Hall, Jim W; Sayers, Paul B; Walkden, Mike J A; Panzeri, Mike

2006-04-15

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 billion pounds to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 billion pounds, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pounds and 0.8 billion pounds. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pounds and 40 billion pounds. Non-structural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures.

A time-dependent probabilistic seismic-hazard model for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Petersen, M.D.; Cao, T.; Toppozada, Tousson R.; Reichle, M.

2000-01-01

For the purpose of sensitivity testing and illuminating nonconsensus components of time-dependent models, the California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) has assembled a time-dependent version of its statewide probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for California. The model incorporates available consensus information from within the earth-science community, except for a few faults or fault segments where consensus information is not available. For these latter faults, published information has been incorporated into the model. As in the 1996 CDMG/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) model, the time-dependent models incorporate three multisegment ruptures: a 1906, an 1857, and a southern San Andreas earthquake. Sensitivity tests are presented to show the effect on hazard and expected damage estimates of (1) intrinsic (aleatory) sigma, (2) multisegment (cascade) vs. independent segment (no cascade) ruptures, and (3) time-dependence vs. time-independence. Results indicate that (1) differences in hazard and expected damage estimates between time-dependent and independent models increase with decreasing intrinsic sigma, (2) differences in hazard and expected damage estimates between full cascading and not cascading are insensitive to intrinsic sigma, (3) differences in hazard increase with increasing return period (decreasing probability of occurrence), and (4) differences in moment-rate budgets increase with decreasing intrinsic sigma and with the degree of cascading, but are within the expected uncertainty in PSH time-dependent modeling and do not always significantly affect hazard and expected damage estimates.

Childhood Aphasia and Brain Damage: Volume II, Differential Diagnosis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rappaport, Sheldon R., Ed.

Addressing itself to factors leading to the misdiagnosis of the brain damaged child and the aphasic child, the Pathway School's Second Annual Institute considered the differences between the following: the aphasic and the aphasoid child; the sensory aphasic and the deaf child; the psychotic and the psychotic aphasic child; childhood brain damage…

Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate the number of annual excess deaths attributable to increased summer temperatures. Warmer average temperatures are expected to cause 173 additional deaths due to cardiovascular stress, while higher minimum temperatures will cause 67 additional deaths. This work particularly improves on the spatial resolution of published analyses of heat-related mortality in the US.

An economic model of haemophilia in Mexico.

PubMed

Martínez-Murillo, C; Quintana, S; Ambriz, R; Benitez, H; Berges, A; Collazo, J; Esparza, A; Pompa, T; Taboada, C; Zavala, S; Larochelle, M R; Bentkover, J D

2004-01-01

A model was developed to assess the lifetime costs and outcomes associated with haemophilia in Mexico. A retrospective chart review of 182 type A haemophiliacs was conducted for patients aged 0-34 years receiving one of three treatments: (i) cryoprecipitate at clinic; (ii) concentrate at home; or (iii) concentrate at clinic. Patients treated at home experienced 30% less joint damage, used 13-54% less factor VIII, had four times fewer clinic visits, and utilized half as many hospital days than those treated at a clinic. For cryoprecipitate at clinic patients, the annual incidence rates of HCV and HIV were calculated to be 3.6% and 1.4% respectively. The life expectancy for patients receiving cryoprecipitate and those receiving concentrate was estimated to be 49 years and 69 years respectively, with 58% of cryoprecipitate patients predicted to die of AIDS before age 69. Across the lifespan, the average annual cost of care was US$11,677 (MN$110,464) for cryoprecipitate at clinic patients, US$10,104 (M$95,580) for concentrate at home patients and US$18,819 (MN$178,027) for concentrate at clinic patients. Using a 5% discount rate, the incremental lifetime cost per year of life added for treatment with concentrate at home compared with cryoprecipitate at a clinic was US$738 (MN$6981). Rank order stability analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to the cost of fVIII. These results indicate that treatment with concentrate at home compared with cryoprecipitate at a clinic substantially improves clinical outcomes at reduced annual cost levels.

Productivity and diversity of morel mushrooms in healthy, burned, and insect damaged forests of northeastern Oregon.

Treesearch

David Pilz; Nancy S. Weber; M. Carol Carter; Catherine G. Parks; Randy. Molina

2004-01-01

Large commercial crops of morels are harvested annually from montane coniferous forests of the Northwestern United States. Although some morels fruit annually in nondisturbed forests, others fruit copiously in areas experiencing fire, insect infestations, tree mortality, and soil disturbance. Many forest managers currently use thinning and prescribed fire to re-create...

Economic valuation of landslide damage in hilly regions: a case study from Flanders, Belgium.

PubMed

Vranken, Liesbet; Van Turnhout, Pieter; Van Den Eeckhaut, Miet; Vandekerckhove, Liesbeth; Poesen, Jean

2013-03-01

Several regions around the globe are at risk of incurring damage from landslides, but only few studies have concentrated on a quantitative estimate of the overall damage caused by landslides at a regional scale. This study therefore starts with a quantitative economic assessment of the direct and indirect damage caused by landslides in a 2,910 km study area located west of Brussels, a low-relief region susceptible to landslides. Based on focus interviews as well as on semi-structured interviews with homeowners, civil servants and the owners and providers of lifelines such as electricity and sewage, a quantitative damage assessment is provided. For private properties (houses, forest and pasture land) we estimate the real estate and production value losses for different damage scenarios, while for public infrastructure the costs of measures to repair and prevent landslide induced damage are estimated. In addition, the increase in amenity value of forests and grasslands due to the occurrence of landslides is also calculated. The study illustrates that a minority of land (only 2.3%) within the study area is used for dwellings, roads and railway lines, but that these land use types are responsible for the vast majority of the economic damage due to the occurrence of landslides. The annual cost of direct damage due to landsliding amounts to 688,148 €/year out of which 550,740 €/year for direct damage to houses, while the annual indirect damage augments to 3,020,049 €/year out of which 2,007,375 €/year for indirect damage to real estate. Next, the study illustrates that the increase of the amenity value of forests and grasslands outweighs the production value loss. As such the study does not only provide quantitative input data for the estimation of future risks, but also important information for government officials as it clearly informs about the costs associated with certain land use types in landslide areas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a New Zealand SedNet model for assessment of catchment-wide soil-conservation works

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dymond, John R.; Herzig, Alexander; Basher, Les; Betts, Harley D.; Marden, Mike; Phillips, Chris J.; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle E.; Palmer, David J.; Clark, Maree; Roygard, Jon

2016-03-01

Much hill country in New Zealand has been converted from indigenous forest to pastoral agriculture, resulting in increased soil erosion. Following a severe storm that hit the Manawatu-Wanaganui region in 2004 and caused 62,000 landslides, the Horizons Regional Council have implemented the Sustainable Land Use Initiative (SLUI), a programme of widespread soil conservation. We have developed a New Zealand version (SedNetNZ) of the Australian SedNet model to evaluate the impact of the SLUI programme in the 5850 km2 Manawatu catchment. SedNetNZ spatially distributes budgets of fine sediment in the landscape. It incorporates landslide, gully, earthflow erosion, surficial erosion, bank erosion, and flood-plain deposition, the important forms of soil erosion in New Zealand. Modelled suspended sediment loads compared well with measured suspended sediment loads with an R2 value of 0.85 after log transformation. A sensitivity analysis gave the uncertainty of estimated suspended sediment loads to be approximately plus or minus 50% (at the 95% confidence level). It is expected that by 2040, suspended sediment loads in targeted water management zones will decrease by about 40%. The expected decrease for the whole catchment is 34%. The expected reduction is due to maturity of tree planting on land at risk to soil erosion. The 34% reduction represents an annual rate of return of 20% on 20 million NZ of investment on soil conservation works through avoided damage to property and infrastructure and avoided clean-up costs.

Incidence and impact of damage and mortality trends to South Carolina's timber, 1986

Treesearch

Robert L. Anderson; Noel D. Cost; William H. Hoffard; Clair Redmond; Joe Glover

1990-01-01

On South Carolina's 12.2 million acres of timberland, 186 million cubic feet of timber were lost annually to mortality and cull between 1978 and 1986. The estimated annual monetary loss was $97.3 million. Among broad management types. natural pine, planted pine, upland hardwoods, and bottomland hardwoods - the greatest loss occurred in natural pine stands. About...

Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

2009-04-01

The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps on rock conditions (for the same probability level). Again, the highest hazard is found in the northeastern part of the region. The lowest hazard is obtained along major river valleys The vulnerability assessment of the Navarra building stock is accomplished using as proxy a combination of building age, location, number of floors and the implantation of building codes. Field surveys help constraining the extent of traditional and technological construction types. The vulnerability characterization is carried out following three methods: European Macroseismic Scale (EMS 98), RISK UE vulnerability index and the capacity spectrum method implemented in Hazus. Vulnerability distribution maps for each Navarrean municipality are provided, adapted to the EMS98 vulnerability classes. The vulnerability of Navarre is medium to high, except for recent urban, highly populated developments. For each vulnerability class and expected ground motion, damage distribution is estimated by means of damage probability matrixes. Several damage indexes, embracing relative and absolute damage estimates, are used. Expected average damage is low. Whereas the largest amounts of damaged structures are found in big cities, the highest percentages are obtained in some muniucipalities of northeastern Navarre. Additionally, expected percentages and amounts of affected persons by earthquake damage are calculated for each municipality. Expected amounts of affected people are low, reflecting the low expected damage degree.

Analyzing the cost of screening selectee and non-selectee baggage.

PubMed

Virta, Julie L; Jacobson, Sheldon H; Kobza, John E

2003-10-01

Determining how to effectively operate security devices is as important to overall system performance as developing more sensitive security devices. In light of recent federal mandates for 100% screening of all checked baggage, this research studies the trade-offs between screening only selectee checked baggage and screening both selectee and non-selectee checked baggage for a single baggage screening security device deployed at an airport. This trade-off is represented using a cost model that incorporates the cost of the baggage screening security device, the volume of checked baggage processed through the device, and the outcomes that occur when the device is used. The cost model captures the cost of deploying, maintaining, and operating a single baggage screening security device over a one-year period. The study concludes that as excess baggage screening capacity is used to screen non-selectee checked bags, the expected annual cost increases, the expected annual cost per checked bag screened decreases, and the expected annual cost per expected number of threats detected in the checked bags screened increases. These results indicate that the marginal increase in security per dollar spent is significantly lower when non-selectee checked bags are screened than when only selectee checked bags are screened.

National health expenditure projections: modest annual growth until coverage expands and economic growth accelerates.

PubMed

Keehan, Sean P; Cuckler, Gigi A; Sisko, Andrea M; Madison, Andrew J; Smith, Sheila D; Lizonitz, Joseph M; Poisal, John A; Wolfe, Christian J

2012-07-01

For 2011-13, US health spending is projected to grow at 4.0 percent, on average--slightly above the historically low growth rate of 3.8 percent in 2009. Preliminary data suggest that growth in consumers' use of health services remained slow in 2011, and this pattern is expected to continue this year and next. In 2014, health spending growth is expected to accelerate to 7.4 percent as the major coverage expansions from the Affordable Care Act begin. For 2011 through 2021, national health spending is projected to grow at an average rate of 5.7 percent annually, which would be 0.9 percentage point faster than the expected annual increase in the gross domestic product during this period. By 2021, federal, state, and local government health care spending is projected to be nearly 50 percent of national health expenditures, up from 46 percent in 2011, with federal spending accounting for about two-thirds of the total government share. Rising government spending on health care is expected to be driven by faster growth in Medicare enrollment, expanded Medicaid coverage, and the introduction of premium and cost-sharing subsidies for health insurance exchange plans.

Complex Consequences of Herbivory and Interplant Cues in Three Annual Plants

PubMed Central

Pearse, Ian S.; Porensky, Lauren M.; Yang, Louie H.; Stanton, Maureen L.; Karban, Richard; Bhattacharyya, Lisa; Cox, Rosa; Dove, Karin; Higgins, August; Kamoroff, Corrina; Kirk, Travis; Knight, Christopher; Koch, Rebecca; Parker, Corwin; Rollins, Hilary; Tanner, Kelsey

2012-01-01

Information exchange (or signaling) between plants following herbivore damage has recently been shown to affect plant responses to herbivory in relatively simple natural systems. In a large, manipulative field study using three annual plant species (Achyrachaena mollis, Lupinus nanus, and Sinapis arvensis), we tested whether experimental damage to a neighboring conspecific affected a plant's lifetime fitness and interactions with herbivores. By manipulating relatedness between plants, we assessed whether genetic relatedness of neighboring individuals influenced the outcome of having a damaged neighbor. Additionally, in laboratory feeding assays, we assessed whether damage to a neighboring plant specifically affected palatability to a generalist herbivore and, for S. arvensis, a specialist herbivore. Our study suggested a high level of contingency in the outcomes of plant signaling. For example, in the field, damaging a neighbor resulted in greater herbivory to A. mollis, but only when the damaged neighbor was a close relative. Similarly, in laboratory trials, the palatability of S. arvensis to a generalist herbivore increased after the plant was exposed to a damaged neighbor, while palatability to a specialist herbivore decreased. Across all species, damage to a neighbor resulted in decreased lifetime fitness, but only if neighbors were closely related. These results suggest that the outcomes of plant signaling within multi-species neighborhoods may be far more context-specific than has been previously shown. In particular, our study shows that herbivore interactions and signaling between plants are contingent on the genetic relationship between neighboring plants. Many factors affect the outcomes of plant signaling, and studies that clarify these factors will be necessary in order to assess the role of plant information exchange about herbivory in natural systems. PMID:22675439

Assessment of mean annual flood damage using simple hydraulic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oubennaceur, K.; Agili, H.; Chokmani, K.; Poulin, J.; Marceau, P.

2016-12-01

Floods are the most frequent and the most damaging natural disaster in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which struck the region in 2011, causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects has been developed. This approach integrates three main components: (1) hydrologic modelling aiming to establish a probability-discharge function which associate each measured discharge to its probability of occurrence (2) hydraulic modeling that aims to establish the relationship between the discharge and the water stage at each building (3) damage study that aims to assess the buildings damage using damage functions. The damage is estimated according to the water depth defined as the difference between the water level and the elevation of the building's first floor. The application of the proposed approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

Semiochemicals to monitor insect pests – future opportunities for an effective host plant volatile blend to attract navel orangeworm in pistachio orchards

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) has been a major insect pest of California tree nut orchards for the past five decades. In particular, almond and pistachio orchards suffer major annual economic damage due to both physical and associated fungal damage caused by navel orangeworm larvae. Un...

Choosing to encourage or discourage: Perceived effectiveness of prescriptive and proscriptive messages

Treesearch

P.L. Winter; B.J. Sagarin; K. Rhoads; D.W. Barrett; R.B. Cialdini

2000-01-01

The estimated cost of repairing damage caused to recreational sites annually is in the hundreds of millions of dollars. These depreciative activities also reduce the quality of visitors’ experiences in the damaged areas. Indirect methods, such as visitor education through brochures and signs, continue to be the least controversial management approaches to depreciative...

Inhibitory effect of essential oils on decay fungi and mold growth on wood

Treesearch

Vina W. Yang; Carol A. Clausen

2007-01-01

Structural damage and potential health risks caused by wood decay and mold fungi in residential structures have been a major concern for homeowners, building contractors and insurance companies alike. The combined damage from decay fungi and mold claims exceeds several billion US dollars annually. Protection against decay and mold growth on wood is a critical economic...

Assessing the Social and Environmental Costs of Institutional ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background/Question/Methods: Release of N to air, land and water has a host of effects on human health, ecosystems and the economy, many of which scientists and economists are just beginning to develop methods to quantify. In order to understand the broader connections to sustainability, more effort is needed to connect N release to the environment with the impacts on social and economic systems. We estimate the damage costs associated with the institutional nitrogen (N) footprint and explore how this information could be used to create more sustainable institutions. Potential damages associated with the release of NOx and N2O to air and release of N to water were estimated using a cost per unit N approach. Results/Conclusions: Annual potential damage costs to human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems associated with the N footprint of institutions were $10.5 million USD (2014) at the University of Virginia (UVA) and $3.0 million USD at the University of New Hampshire (UNH). Costs associated with the release of nitrogen oxides (NOx) to human health, in particular the use of coal-derived energy, were the largest component of damage at UVA. At UNH the energy N footprint is much lower because of a co-generation source, and thus the majority of damages were associated with food production. Annual damages associated with release of N from food production were very similar at the two universities ($1.37 vs. $1.66 million at UVA and UNH respectively). T

Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views.

PubMed

Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Fricker, Tyler

2016-01-01

This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km. Refitting the model after removing the least damaging tornadoes from the data (EF0) produces a similar map but with the greatest tornado risk shifted south and eastward. Second, a space-time model is fit to the counts aggregated in raster cells with terms that control for changes in climate factors. Results provide a short-term view of risk. The short-term view identifies a shift of tornado activity away from the Ohio Valley under El Niño conditions and away from the Southeast under positive North Atlantic oscillation conditions. The combined predictor effects on the local rates is quantified by fitting the model after leaving out the year to be predicted from the data. The models provide state-of-the-art views of tornado risk that can be used by government agencies, the insurance industry, and the general public.

Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views

PubMed Central

Jagger, Thomas H.; Fricker, Tyler

2016-01-01

This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km. Refitting the model after removing the least damaging tornadoes from the data (EF0) produces a similar map but with the greatest tornado risk shifted south and eastward. Second, a space-time model is fit to the counts aggregated in raster cells with terms that control for changes in climate factors. Results provide a short-term view of risk. The short-term view identifies a shift of tornado activity away from the Ohio Valley under El Niño conditions and away from the Southeast under positive North Atlantic oscillation conditions. The combined predictor effects on the local rates is quantified by fitting the model after leaving out the year to be predicted from the data. The models provide state-of-the-art views of tornado risk that can be used by government agencies, the insurance industry, and the general public. PMID:27875581

Prospects for detection of target-dependent annual modulation in direct dark matter searches

DOE PAGES

Nobile, Eugenio Del; Gelmini, Graciela B.; Witte, Samuel J.

2016-02-03

Earth's rotation about the Sun produces an annual modulation in the expected scattering rate at direct dark matter detection experiments. The annual modulation as a function of the recoil energy E R imparted by the dark matter particle to a target nucleus is expected to vary depending on the detector material. However, for most interactions a change of variables from E R to v min, the minimum speed a dark matter particle must have to impart a fixed E R to a target nucleus, produces an annual modulation independent of the target element. We recently showed that if the darkmore » matter-nucleus cross section contains a non-factorizable target and dark matter velocity dependence, the annual modulation as a function of v min can be target dependent. Here we examine more extensively the necessary conditions for target-dependent modulation, its observability in present-day experiments, and the extent to which putative signals could identify a dark matter-nucleus differential cross section with a non-factorizable dependence on the dark matter velocity.« less

Summary of floods in the United States during 1962

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rostvedt, J.O.

1968-01-01

This report describes the most outstanding floods in the United Spates during 1962. The most damaging floods during the year occurred in February in southern Idaho and northern Nevada and Utah, and during the latter part of February and the early part of March in Kentucky and in the Cumberland River basin in Tennessee.The floods in Idaho and adjacent areas of Nevada and Utah resulted from a combination of prolonged low-intensity rainfall, moderate amounts of snow on low-altitude areas, a period of high temperatures, and a glaze of ice over deeply frozen ground. The floods affected some of the most valuable agricultural land in the region and some of the most heavily populated areas in Idaho. Damage in Idaho was estimated at more than \\$7 million.The floods in Kentucky and Tennessee were caused by two storms; precipitation exceeded 7 inches at places during the second storm. Damage in Kentucky totaled about \\$7 million.Recordbreaking snowmelt floods occurred in March and April in southeastern South Dakota and adjacent areas. Many peak discharges were much greater than those that can be expected to occur on an average of once in 25 years. Peak discharges on the Floyd River and the Big Sioux River were the greatest snowmelt floods since 1881. Damage in South Dakota was estimated at \\$4 million.Heavy rains during May and intense rains in early June caused flooding in Minnesota on tributaries of the Red River of the North. Peak discharges exceeded previous maximums at some areas in the basins of the Buffalo, Clearwater, and Wild Rice Rivers. Damage from the floods of May and June in Minnesota was about \\$5 million.The greatest flood since 1920 in Rapid City, S. Dak., caused at out $600,000 damage in July. The great runoff of 3,300 cubic feet per second, from a relatively small area downstream from Pactola Reservoir, resulted from rainfall having an intensity greater than that for a 100-year recurrence interval.Floods caused almost \\$3 million damage in three river basins' in western Florida in September. The greatest damage was in Sarasota where from 3 to 7 feet of water flooded homes and stores. About 70,000 acres of farmland and woodland was inundated.Unusual floods of September in southern Arizona flooded areas up to 10 miles wide. Damage, which totaled about \\$3 million, was almost entirely to farms, as the flood area is sparsely populated.In addition to the floods just mentioned, 15 others of lesser magnitude are considered outstanding enough to be included in this annual summary.

Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity.

PubMed

Tippett, Michael K; Cohen, Joel E

2016-02-29

Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from 'outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954-2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related.

Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity

PubMed Central

Tippett, Michael K.; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-01-01

Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from ‘outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954–2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related. PMID:26923210

Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-02-01

Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from `outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954-2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related.

Resilience by Design: Bringing Science to Policy Makers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.

2015-01-01

No one questions that Los Angeles has an earthquake problem. The “Big Bend” of the San Andreas fault in southern California complicates the plate boundary between the North American and Pacific plates, creating a convergent component to the primarily transform boundary. The Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model has over 150 fault segments, each capable of generating a damaging earthquake, in an area with more than 23 million residents (Fig. 1). A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) analysis of the expected losses from all future earthquakes in the National Seismic Hazard Maps (Petersen et al., 2014) predicts an annual average of more than $3 billion per year in the eight counties of southern California, with half of those losses in Los Angeles County alone (Federal Emergency Management Agency [FEMA], 2008). According to Swiss Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance companies, Los Angeles faces one of the greatest risks of catastrophic losses from earthquakes of any city in the world, eclipsed only by Tokyo, Jakarta, and Manila (Swiss Re, 2013).

A comparison between conventional and LANDSAT based hydrologic modeling: The Four Mile Run case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ragan, R. M.; Jackson, T. J.; Fitch, W. N.; Shubinski, R. P.

1976-01-01

Models designed to support the hydrologic studies associated with urban water resources planning require input parameters that are defined in terms of land cover. Estimating the land cover is a difficult and expensive task when drainage areas larger than a few sq. km are involved. Conventional and LANDSAT based methods for estimating the land cover based input parameters required by hydrologic planning models were compared in a case study of the 50.5 sq. km (19.5 sq. mi) Four Mile Run Watershed in Virginia. Results of the study indicate that the LANDSAT based approach is highly cost effective for planning model studies. The conventional approach to define inputs was based on 1:3600 aerial photos, required 110 man-days and a total cost of $14,000. The LANDSAT based approach required 6.9 man-days and cost $2,350. The conventional and LANDSAT based models gave similar results relative to discharges and estimated annual damages expected from no flood control, channelization, and detention storage alternatives.

Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, Philip J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Kummu, M.

2013-01-01

Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

Psychology Students' Expectations Regarding Educational Requirements and Salary for Desired Careers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strapp, Chehalis M.; Drapela, Danica J.; Henderson, Cierra I.; Nasciemento, Emily; Roscoe, Lauren J.

2018-01-01

This study investigated the accuracy of psychology majors' expectations regarding careers. Psychology majors, including 101 women and 35 men (M[subscript age] = 23 years; standard deviation[subscript age] = 6.25), indicated a desired career and estimated the level of education needed and the expected annual salary for the career. Students'…

Air Emission Reduction Benefits of Biogas Electricity Generation at Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants.

PubMed

Gingerich, Daniel B; Mauter, Meagan S

2018-02-06

Conventional processes for municipal wastewater treatment facilities are energy and materially intensive. This work quantifies the air emission implications of energy consumption, chemical use, and direct pollutant release at municipal wastewater treatment facilities across the U.S. and assesses the potential to avoid these damages by generating electricity and heat from the combustion of biogas produced during anaerobic sludge digestion. We find that embedded and on-site air emissions from municipal wastewater treatment imposed human health, environmental, and climate (HEC) damages on the order of $1.63 billion USD in 2012, with 85% of these damages attributed to the estimated consumption of 19 500 GWh of electricity by treatment processes annually, or 0.53% of the US electricity demand. An additional 11.8 million tons of biogenic CO 2 are directly emitted by wastewater treatment and sludge digestion processes currently installed at plants. Retrofitting existing wastewater treatment facilities with anaerobic sludge digestion for biogas production and biogas-fueled heat and electricity generation has the potential to reduce HEC damages by up to 24.9% relative to baseline emissions. Retrofitting only large plants (>5 MGD), where biogas generation is more likely to be economically viable, would generate HEC benefits of $254 annually. These findings reinforce the importance of accounting for use-phase embedded air emissions and spatially resolved marginal damage estimates when designing sustainable infrastructure systems.

Damage threshold of platinum coating used for optics for self-seeding of soft x-ray free electron laser

DOE PAGES

Krzywinski, Jacek; Cocco, Daniele; Moeller, Stefan; ...

2015-02-23

We investigated the experimental damage threshold of platinum coating on a silicon substrate illuminated by soft x-ray radiation at grazing incidence angle of 2.1 deg. The coating was the same as the blazed grating used for the soft X-ray self-seeding optics of the Linac Coherent Light Source free electron laser. The irradiation condition was chosen such that the absorbed dose was similar to the maximum dose expected for the grating. The expected dose was simulated by solving the Helmholtz equation in non-homogenous media. The experiment was performed at 900 eV photon energy for both single pulse and multi-shot conditions. Wemore » have not observed single shot damage. This corresponds to a single shot damage threshold being higher than 3 J/cm 2. The multiple shot damage threshold measured for 10 shots and about 600 shots was determined to be 0.95 J/cm 2 and 0.75 J/cm 2 respectively. The damage threshold occurred at an instantaneous dose which is higher that the melt dose of platinum.« less

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

Mount St. Helens, Washington Feasibility Report & Environmental Impact Statement. Volume 1: Main Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-12-01

Base Condition WITH-PROJECT CONDITION Single Retention Structure Identification of NED Plan Benefits - NED Plan SENSITIVITY OF NED PLAN TO...Downstream Actions COSTS OF THE PREFERRED PLAN BENEFITS OF THE PREFERRED PLAN Economic and Social Effects Prevention of Erosion Maintenance of...continued) TABLES Residual Damages Summary of Costs Preferred Alternative Sediment MOvement Net Average Annual NED Benefits Total Flood Damages Average

Incidence and impact of damage to East Oklahoma's timber, 1986

Treesearch

Stephen Clarke; Clair Redmond; Dennis May; Dale Starkey

1994-01-01

An average of 57.4 million cubic feet of timber was lost annually to mortality and cull from 1976 to 1986 in east Oklahoma's 4.75 million acres of commercial forest land, resulting in a monetary loss of $7.2 million per year. Hardwoods generally had more damage than softwoods, with upland hardwoods accounting for 63 percent of cull volume loss. Of the ownership...

Accidents caused by hazardous trees on California forest recreation sites

Treesearch

Lee A. Paine

1966-01-01

From 1959 to early 1966, tree failures caused an average of more than two injuries or deaths per year on forest recreation sites in California. Annual property damage is estimated at $25,100. Conifers accounted for three of every four accidents reported; pines and true firs were involved in 6 of every 10 incidents involving property damage, and in 9 of every 10...

Forecasting Frost Damage: Follow the Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rempel, A. W.

2015-12-01

Frost damage takes place when the pressure exerted against pore walls exceeds the cohesive strength of water-infiltrated rock and causes cracks to extend. Elegant theoretical treatments supported by meticulous field and laboratory observations have combined to unravel the basic mechanical and thermodynamic controls in idealized systems. Frost damage is most vigorous when conditions are cold enough that the net pressure exerted against the pore walls can cause crack extension, yet warm enough to enable the flow that supplies further ice growth in the newly opened space. This insight is applied here to develop practical geomorphic process laws for the effects of frost damage at the larger scales that are relevant for describing the evolution of landscapes. To this end, a direct connection is made between the intensity of frost damage and the porosity increase that results from gradients in water flux under conditions that are cold enough for ice-rock interactions to propagate cracks. This implies that the annual temperature variation at the ground surface can be combined with considerations of heat and mass transport to derive rigorous forecasts of the potential for frost damage that are tied to the increases in water mass that accompany solidification in porous rock. As an example, the image shows the depth-integrated porosity change λ promoted by crack growth at temperatures colder than -ΔTc over an annual cycle for different choices of mean annual temperature MAT and surface amplitude A (assuming a thermal diffusivity of 1 mm2/s and a power-law relationship between permeability and undercooling with exponent α=4, such that a base value of 10-14m2 is reached at a reference undercooling of 0.1 ºC). The abrupt onset in cracking once MAT decreases below a threshold is produced by the requirement that undercooling surpass ΔTc in order to generate sufficient pressures to propagate cracks. The eventual reduction and gradual tail in λ at colder MAT is produced by the clogging of the permeable pathways needed to supply additional water to propmote crack growth.

33 CFR 165.941 - Safety Zones; Annual Fireworks Events in the Captain of the Port Detroit Zone.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... times for this event will be determined annually. (5) Alpena Fireworks, Alpena, MI: (i) Location: All... Alpena, MI. (ii) Expected date: One evening during the last week in of June or the first week of July...

Efficient air pollution regulation of coal-fired power in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Therese

This dissertation evaluates monetary external costs of electricity generation in the People's Republic of China and implications for efficient pollution control policy. It presents an integrated assessment of environmental damages of air emissions of a representative new coal-fired plant in urban areas of north and south China. The simulation evaluates the nature and magnitude of damages in China, transboundary effects in Japan and Korea, and global greenhouse gas warming impacts. The valuation is used to identify efficient abatement policy for Chinese plants over time; evaluate benefits of differentiated policies; and consider the importance of dynamic policy. Potential annual damages of operating a 600-MW power plant without controls in China today would be 43-45 million (U.S. 1995). Annual local damages of 37-40 million far exceed transboundary or greenhouse gas damages (1.4 million and $4.6 million respectively). The largest component of damages is the risk of human mortality and chronic morbidity from long-term exposure to fine particles. Efficient pollution control minimizes the sum of abatement costs and residual unabated damages. Because monetary damages reflect sufferers' willingness to pay to avoid environmental risks, the choice of efficient controls is fundamentally tied to societal values and preferences. The optimal path for Chinese abatement moves from modest dispersion measures at present to combined dispersion and emission controls approaching those of current-day United States, by 2050. The inclusion of transboundary and greenhouse damages does not substantively alter local policies. Welfare benefits are gained by differentiating abatement policy by pollutant, meteorological parameters, and by population density. An analysis of optimal one-time investment in abatement for a plant in a growing economy suggests that some investment is optimal at all incomes but no single level of abatement is suitable for all economies. Forward-looking policy anticipates higher future values for environmental services and provides distinct welfare advantages over time compared to myopic or static policies-such as the imposition of developed country standards-especially if aggregate capacity growth is considered.

Modeling and dynamic monitoring of ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, L.; Ji, Lei; Tieszen, Larry L.; Bliss, N.B.

2008-01-01

Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented by the growing season integral of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is a measure of greenness that can be interpreted in terms of plant growth or photosynthetic activity (gross primary productivity). The approach illustrates the status and trends of ecosystem changes and separates the influences of climate and local site conditions from the influences of disturbances and land management.We emphasize the ability to quantify ecosystem processes, not simply changes in land cover, across the entire period of the remote sensing archive (Wylie and others, 2008). The method builds upon remotely sensed measures of vegetation greenness for each growing season. By itself, however, a time series of greenness often reflects annual climate variations in temperature and precipitation. Our method seeks to remove the influence of climate so that changes in underlying ecological conditions are identified and quantified. We define an "expected ecosystem performance" to represent the greenness response expected in a particular year given the climate of that year. We distinguish "performance anomalies" as cases where the ecosystem response is significantly different from the expected ecosystem performance. Maps of the performance anomalies (fig. 1) and trends in the anomalies give valuable information on the ecosystems for land managers and policy makers at a resolution of 1 km to 250 m.

Influence of precipitation and crop germination on resource selection by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in southwest Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carrollo, Emily M.; Johnson, Heather E.; Fischer, Justin W.; Hammond, Matthew; Dorsey, Patricia D.; Anderson, Charles; Vercauteren, Kurt C.; Walter, W. David

2017-01-01

Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations in the western United States provide many benefits to local economies but can also cause considerable damage to agriculture, particularly damage to lucrative crops. Limited information exists to understand resource selection of mule deer in response to annual variation in crop rotation and climatic conditions. We tested the hypothesis that mule deer select certain crops, and in particular sunflower, based on annual climatic variability. Our objective was to use movements, estimates of home range, and resource selection analysis to identify resources selected by mule deer. We used annually-derived crop-specific datasets along with Global Positioning System collars to monitor 14 mule deer in an agricultural area near public lands in southwestern Colorado, USA. We estimated home ranges for two winter seasons that ranged between 7.68 and 9.88 km2, and for two summer seasons that ranged between 5.51 and 6.24 km2. Mule deer selected areas closer to forest and alfalfa for most periods during 2012, but selected areas closer to sunflower in a majority of periods during 2013. Considerable annual variation in climate patterns and precipitation levels appeared to influence selection by mule deer because of variability in crop rotation and success of germination of specific crops.

Influence of Precipitation and Crop Germination on Resource Selection by Mule Deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Southwest Colorado.

PubMed

Carrollo, Emily M; Johnson, Heather E; Fischer, Justin W; Hammond, Matthew; Dorsey, Patricia D; Anderson, Charles; Vercauteren, Kurt C; Walter, W David

2017-11-09

Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations in the western United States provide many benefits to local economies but can also cause considerable damage to agriculture, particularly damage to lucrative crops. Limited information exists to understand resource selection of mule deer in response to annual variation in crop rotation and climatic conditions. We tested the hypothesis that mule deer select certain crops, and in particular sunflower, based on annual climatic variability. Our objective was to use movements, estimates of home range, and resource selection analysis to identify resources selected by mule deer. We used annually-derived crop-specific datasets along with Global Positioning System collars to monitor 14 mule deer in an agricultural area near public lands in southwestern Colorado, USA. We estimated home ranges for two winter seasons that ranged between 7.68 and 9.88 km 2 , and for two summer seasons that ranged between 5.51 and 6.24 km 2 . Mule deer selected areas closer to forest and alfalfa for most periods during 2012, but selected areas closer to sunflower in a majority of periods during 2013. Considerable annual variation in climate patterns and precipitation levels appeared to influence selection by mule deer because of variability in crop rotation and success of germination of specific crops.

Safety effects of low-cost engineering measures. An observational study in a Portuguese multilane road.

PubMed

Vieira Gomes, Sandra; Cardoso, João Lourenço

2012-09-01

Single carriageway multilane roads are not, in general, a very safe type of road, mainly because of the high number of seriously injured victims in head-on collisions, when compared with dual carriageway multilane roads, with a median barrier. In this paper the results of a study on the effect of the application of several low cost engineering measures, aimed at road infrastructure correction and road safety improvement on a multilane road (EN6), are presented. The study was developed by the National Laboratory of Civil Engineering (LNEC) for the Portuguese Road Administration and involved a comparison of selected aspects of motorized traffic behaviour (traffic volumes and speeds) measured in several sections of EN6, as well as monitoring of road safety developments in the same road. The applied low cost engineering measures allowed a reduction of 10% in the expected annual number of personal injury accidents and a 70% decrease in the expected annual number of head-on collisions; the expected annual frequency of accidents involving killed and seriously injured persons was reduced by 26%. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceptual Asymmetry for Chimeric Stimuli in Children with Early Unilateral Brain Damage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bava, Sunita; Ballantyne, Angela O.; May, Susanne J.; Trauner, Doris A.

2005-01-01

The present study used a chimeric stimuli task to assess the magnitude of the left-hemispace bias in children with congenital unilateral brain damage (n=46) as compared to typically developing matched controls (n=46). As would be expected, controls exhibited a significant left-hemispace bias. In the presence of left hemisphere (LH) damage, the…

Wildfire risk adaptation: propensity of forestland owners to purchase wildfire insurance in the southern United States

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2014-01-01

Economic and ecological damages caused by wildfire are alarming, and such damages are expected to rise with changes in wildfire regimes, calling for more effective wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies. Among wildfire adaptation options for forestland owners is purchasing wildfire insurance, which provides compensation to those insured if a wildfire damages...

Not so hot: Rapid recovery of soil temperature and respiration following tornado damage, regardless of disturbance severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagendra, U.; Peterson, C.

2013-12-01

Forest disturbances such as tornadoes are expected to raise soil temperatures and increase soil respiration. Opening canopy gaps allows solar radiation to heat the forest floor, and damaged plant roots provide fuel for decomposition. Patches of disturbed forest can range from low severity (some defoliation, broken branches) to high severity (uprooted or snapped trees). Disturbance severity affects plant population and community processes, such as regeneration mode, species diversity, and community structure. We expect disturbance severity to also affect ecosystem processes such as soil respiration. Severe disturbances cause more distinct, and often larger, canopy gaps than mild disturbances, and damage more standing biomass, both above- and below-ground. We would expect these larger gaps and greater litter amounts to increase soil temperature and respiration in more severely disturbed forest patches. In April 2011, a moderate (EF-3) tornado damaged portions of the Chattahoochee National Forest in NE Georgia, USA. Our lab has been characterizing the damage and regeneration in sections of the forest since summer 2011. In Spring 2013, we installed 4 iButton temperature sensors in each of 14 plots across a range of disturbance severity (for a total of 56 sensors). Severity was determined by percent of initial tree basal area downed by the tornado, and ranged from 8% to 100% basal area down. The iButtons monitored soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm every hour for 85 days. In July 2013, integrated 24-hour soil respiration was measured at the same locations using soda lime absorption in sealed PVC collars. Soil temperature at 5 cm averaged 12.66 °C. Contrary to expectations, average daily temperatures did not increase with greater plot damage severity (R2 = 0.001). Daily variation was only slightly higher in plots of very high severity. Overall, soil temperatures appeared to have returned to pre-disturbance temperatures more quickly than expected. Results for upcoming months will be presented at the meeting. Soil respiration was relatively high in all plots (4.49 +/-1.19 g C m-2 hr-1). Contrary to expectations, respiration did not vary significantly with plot damage severity (R2 = 0.0676). The temperature and respiration data together suggest potentially rapid ecosystem recovery after these types of wind disturbances. The flush of understory growth in open patches may insulate the forest floor from solar radiation, even though the forest canopy is still open. These unexpected preliminary results may indicate that ecosystem processes in southern forests are more resilient to disturbances than previously thought. Although forests become carbon sinks immediately after disturbances, they may return to carbon neutral or sink status relatively quickly, given the right circumstances.

42 CFR 456.712 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... program. (2) A description of how pharmacies performing prospective DUR without computers are expected to...) A description of the steps taken by the State Agency to monitor compliance by pharmacies with the... entities such as the Medicaid Fraud Control Unit and State Board of Pharmacy. The annual report also must...

42 CFR 456.712 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... program. (2) A description of how pharmacies performing prospective DUR without computers are expected to...) A description of the steps taken by the State Agency to monitor compliance by pharmacies with the... entities such as the Medicaid Fraud Control Unit and State Board of Pharmacy. The annual report also must...

42 CFR 456.712 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... program. (2) A description of how pharmacies performing prospective DUR without computers are expected to...) A description of the steps taken by the State Agency to monitor compliance by pharmacies with the... entities such as the Medicaid Fraud Control Unit and State Board of Pharmacy. The annual report also must...

42 CFR 456.712 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... program. (2) A description of how pharmacies performing prospective DUR without computers are expected to...) A description of the steps taken by the State Agency to monitor compliance by pharmacies with the... entities such as the Medicaid Fraud Control Unit and State Board of Pharmacy. The annual report also must...

42 CFR 456.712 - Annual report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... program. (2) A description of how pharmacies performing prospective DUR without computers are expected to...) A description of the steps taken by the State Agency to monitor compliance by pharmacies with the... entities such as the Medicaid Fraud Control Unit and State Board of Pharmacy. The annual report also must...

16 CFR 313.9 - Delivering privacy and opt out notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... refrain from sending any information regarding the customer relationship, and your current privacy notice...) Annual notices only. You may reasonably expect that a customer will receive actual notice of your annual privacy notice if: (1) The customer uses your web site to access financial products and services...

Impact of varying storm intensity and consecutive dry days on grassland soil moisture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Intra-annual precipitation patterns are expected to shift toward more intense storms and longer dry periods due to changes in climate within the next decades. Using satellite-derived estimates of plant growth data from 2000-2012, this study quantified the relationship between intra-annual precipitat...

Effect of oil pollution on fresh groundwater in Kuwait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Sulaimi, J.; Viswanathan, M. N.; Székely, F.

1993-11-01

Massive oil fires in Kuwait were the aftermath of the Gulf War. This resulted in the pollution of air, water, and soil, the magnitude of which is unparalleled in the history of mankind. Oil fires damaged several oil well heads, resulting in the flow of oil, forming large oil lakes. Products of combustion from oil well fires deposited over large areas. Infiltrating rainwater, leaching out contaminants from oil lakes and products of combustion at ground surface, can reach the water table and contaminate the groundwater. Field investigations, supported by laboratory studies and mathematical models, show that infiltration of oil from oil lakes will be limited to a depth of about 2 m from ground surface. Preliminary mathematical models showed that contaminated rainwater can infiltrate and reach the water table within a period of three to four days, particularly at the Raudhatain and Umm Al-Aish regions. These are the only regions in Kuwait where fresh groundwater exists. After reaching the water table, the lateral movement of contaminants is expected to be very slow under prevailing hydraulic gradients. Groundwater monitoring at the above regions during 1992 showed minor levels of vanadium, nickel, and total hydrocarbons at certain wells. Since average annual rainfall in the region is only 120 mm/yr, groundwater contamination due to the infiltration of contaminated rainwater is expected to be a long-term one.

Cerebral Visual Impairment: Which Perceptive Visual Dysfunctions Can Be Expected in Children with Brain Damage? A Systematic Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boot, F. H.; Pel, J. J. M.; van der Steen, J.; Evenhuis, H. M.

2010-01-01

The current definition of Cerebral Visual Impairment (CVI) includes all visual dysfunctions caused by damage to, or malfunctioning of, the retrochiasmatic visual pathways in the absence of damage to the anterior visual pathways or any major ocular disease. CVI is diagnosed by exclusion and the existence of many different causes and symptoms make…

Tree damage resulting from thinning in young-growth Douglas-fir and western hemlock.

Treesearch

Norman P. Worthington

1961-01-01

Thinning trials on three cooperative experimental forests in western Washington have provided an excellent opportunity to evaluate tree damage resulting from typical thinning operations in young-growth timber. The type and degree of damage can, of course, be expected to strongly affect condition and vigor of the residual stand and ultimate success of a thinning regime...

Damage to western Washington forests from November 1955 cold wave.

Treesearch

John W. Duffield

1956-01-01

The cold wave that occurred throughout the Pacific Northwest in mid-November 1955 caused serious damage to the forests of western Washington. Observations indicate that heavy mortality can be expected in 30- to 40-year-old stands in some areas. In addition, widespread damage was suffered by natural regeneration and young plantations, and by 1-0 stock in some forest...

The cost of karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse in the United States compared with other natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weary, David J.

2015-01-01

Rocks with potential for karst formation are found in all 50 states. Damage due to karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse is a natural hazard of national scope. Repair of damage to buildings, highways, and other infrastructure represents a significant national cost. Sparse and incomplete data show that the average cost of karst-related damages in the United States over the last 15 years is estimated to be at least $300,000,000 per year and the actual total is probably much higher. This estimate is lower than the estimated annual costs for other natural hazards; flooding, hurricanes and cyclonic storms, tornadoes, landslides, earthquakes, or wildfires, all of which average over $1 billion per year. Very few state organizations track karst subsidence and sinkhole damage mitigation costs; none occurs at the Federal level. Many states discuss the karst hazard in their State hazard mitigation plans, but seldom include detailed reports of subsidence incidents or their mitigation costs. Most State highway departments do not differentiate karst subsidence or sinkhole collapse from other road repair costs. Amassing of these data would raise the estimated annual cost considerably. Information from insurance organizations about sinkhole damage claims and payouts is also not readily available. Currently there is no agency with a mandate for developing such data. If a more realistic estimate could be made, it would illuminate the national scope of this hazard and make comparison with costs of other natural hazards more realistic.

Laser induced damage in optical materials: tenth ASTM symposium.

PubMed

Glass, A J; Guenther, A H

1979-07-01

The tenth annual Symposium on Optical Materials for High Power Lasers (Boulder Damage Symposium) was held at the National Bureau of Standards in Boulder, Colorado, 12-14 September 1978. The symposium was held under the auspices of ASTM Committee F-1, Subcommittee on Laser Standards, with the joint sponsorship of NBS, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Office of Naval Research. About 175 scientists attended, including representatives of the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Japan, West Germany, and the Soviet Union. The symposium was divided into sessions concerning the measurement of absorption characteristics, bulk material properties, mirrors and surfaces, thin film damage, coating materials and design, and breakdown phenomena. As in previous years, the emphasis of the papers presented was directed toward new frontiers and new developments. Particular emphasis was given to materials for use from 10.6 microm to the UV region. Highlights included surface characterization, thin film-substrate boundaries, and advances in fundamental laser-matter threshold interactions and mechanisms. The scaling of damage thresholds with pulse duration, focal area, and wavelength was also discussed. In commemoration of the tenth symposium in this series, a number of comprehensive review papers were presented to assess the state of the art in various facets of laser induced damage in optical materials. Alexander J. Glass of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory and Arthur H. Guenther of the Air Force Weapons Laboratory were co-chairpersons. The eleventh annual symposium is scheduled for 30-31 October 1979 at the National Bureau of Standards, Boulder, Colorado.

Reading: Great Expectations. Proceedings of the Annual Reading Conference (11th, Terre Haute, Indiana, June 11-12, 1981).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbs, Vanita M., Comp.; Pabst, Robert L., Comp.

One of a series of publications on selected aspects of reading curriculum development, this monograph contains eight papers that deal with expectations in the teaching of reading. Topics covered include (1) the relationship between reading and writing, (2) changing expectations in education, (3) skills programs for remedial readers, (4) ways to…

Photographs of plant damage: an album submitted as part of technical report No. II. Development of standards for evaluating vegetation damage caused by air pollutants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benedict, H.M.; Breen, W.H.

1955-01-01

This album of photographs shows representative types of leaf marking produced on ten different plant species by controlled fumigations with six common air pollutants. The document is intended for field use in identifying the pollutants causing air pollution damage to valuable field crops. The pollutants considered include ammonia, chlorine, hydrogen fluoride, hydrogen sulfide, oxides of nitrogen, and sulfur dioxide. The plant species considered include mustard, sunflower, lambsquarters, cheeseweed, annual bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, chickweed, dandelion, Nettle-leaf goosefoot, and pigweed.

Skin damage associated with intravenous therapy: common problems and strategies for prevention.

PubMed

Thayer, Debra

2012-01-01

Infusion therapy is among the most common health care interventions, with approximately 90% of hospitalized patients receiving vascular access and an estimated 1.3 million home infusion therapies delivered annually. Whereas most individuals complete their therapy uneventfully, others experience alterations in skin integrity, some significant enough to disrupt therapy. There are limited published data on the incidence of skin damage associated with infusion therapy, and the etiology of damage has not been previously described in detail. Wound, ostomy, and continence (WOC) nurses have developed a significant understanding of skin-related problems and effective prevention strategies from over 40 years of experience with ostomy patients--another population in which adhesive wear is a constant and localized, superficial skin damage is common. This article will offer a WOC nursing perspective of skin damage and seek to provide a context for understanding and preventing skin damage in the infusion therapy patient.

Towards a robust methodology to assess coastal impacts and adaptation policies for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The present contribution aims to present preliminary results from efforts towards (i) the development of the integrated risk assessment tool LISCoAsT for Europe (Large scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool); (ii) the assessment of coastal risk along the European coastline in view of climate change; and (iii) the development and application of a robust methodology to evaluate adaptation options for the European coastline under climate change scenarios. The overall approach builds on the disaster risk methodology proposed by the IPCC SREX (2012) report, defining risk as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Substantial effort has been put in all the individual components of the risk assessment chain, including: (1) the development of dynamic scenarios of catastrophic coastal hazards (e.g., storm surges, sea-level rise) in view of climate change; (2) quantification, mapping and forecasting exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas; (3) carrying out a bottom-up, highly disaggregated assessment of climate impacts on coastal areas in Europe in view of global warming; (4) estimating the costs and assessing the effectiveness of different adaptation options. Projections indicate that, by the end of this century, sea levels in Europe will rise on average between 45 and 70 cm; while projections of coastal hazard showed that for some European regions, the increased storminess can be an additional significant driver of further risk. Projections of increasing extreme storm surge levels (SSL) were even more pronounced under the business-as-usual RCP8.5 concentration pathway, in particular along the Northern Europe coastline. The above are also reflected in the coastal impact projections, which show a significant increase in the expected annual damage (EAD) from coastal flooding. The present EAD for Europe of 800 million €/year is projected to increase up to 2.4 and 3.2 billion €/year by 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and to 11.2 and 18.3 billion €/year by 2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively (values correspond to a medium ice-sheet behavior scenario). The projected Expected Annual Number of People forced to relocate because of RSLR by the year 2100 is 22,000 and 35,000 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Finally, the expected annual number of people affected by coastal flooding in Europe is projected to increase from presently 27,000 to 67,000 and 197,000 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by 2040, and to 81,000 and 295,000 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by 2100. Apart from improving the impact assessment approach, the main current priority is to advance further towards the evaluation of coastal adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

75 FR 5169 - Insurance Cost Information Regulation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-01

... 2008 text and data for the annual insurance cost information booklet that all car dealers must make... different makes and models of passenger cars based on differences in damage susceptibility. Pursuant to 49...

Recurrent Infections May Signal Immunodeficiencies

MedlinePlus

... the AAAAI Foundation Donate Utility navigation Español Journals Pollen Counts Annual Meeting Member Login / My Membership Search ... you have year-round allergies to dust mites, pollen and mold, you may have some damage to ...

Large truck crash facts 2005

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-02-01

This annual edition of Large Truck Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and property damage only crashes involving large trucks in 2005. Selected crash statistics on passenger vehicles are also presented for comparison pur...

Staying Healthy

MedlinePlus

... paramount to minimizing further lung damage. In some cases, oxygen may be prescribed as well, to help with breathing problems. Alpha-1 patients will also want to receive annual flu shots and should be vaccinated against pneumonia. Eating properly ...

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

23 CFR 668.103 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... be primarily attributable to gradual and progressive deterioration or lack of proper maintenance. The... the disaster occurrence for the purpose of: (1) Minimizing the extent of the damage, (2) Protecting... maintenance. Work usually done by highway agencies in repairing damage normally expected from seasonal and...

23 CFR 668.103 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... be primarily attributable to gradual and progressive deterioration or lack of proper maintenance. The... the disaster occurrence for the purpose of: (1) Minimizing the extent of the damage, (2) Protecting... maintenance. Work usually done by highway agencies in repairing damage normally expected from seasonal and...

23 CFR 668.103 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... be primarily attributable to gradual and progressive deterioration or lack of proper maintenance. The... the disaster occurrence for the purpose of: (1) Minimizing the extent of the damage, (2) Protecting... maintenance. Work usually done by highway agencies in repairing damage normally expected from seasonal and...

Consumptive water use associated with food waste: case study of fresh mango in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridoutt, B. G.; Juliano, P.; Sanguansri, P.; Sellahewa, J.

2009-07-01

In many parts of the world, freshwater is already a scarce and overexploited natural resource, raising concerns about global food security and damage to freshwater ecosystems. This situation is expected to intensify with the FAO estimating that world food production must double by 2050. Food chains must therefore become much more efficient in terms of consumptive water use. For the small and geographically well-defined Australian mango industry, having an average annual production of 44 692 t of marketable fresh fruit, the average virtual water content (sum of green, blue and gray water) at orchard gate was 2298 l kg-1. However, due to wastage in the distribution and consumption stages of the product life cycle, the average virtual water content of one kg of Australian-grown fresh mango consumed by an Australian household was 5218 l. This latter figure compares to an Australian-equivalent water footprint of 217 l kg-1, which is the volume of direct water use by an Australian household having an equivalent potential to contribute to water scarcity. Nationally, distribution and consumption waste in the food chain of Australian-grown fresh mango to Australian households represented an annual waste of 26.7 Gl of green water and 16.6 Gl of blue water. These findings suggest that interventions to reduce food chain waste will likely have as great or even greater impact on freshwater resource availability as other water use efficiency measures in agriculture and food production.

Development of a Pulsed Pressure-Based Technique for Cavitation Damage Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Fei; Wang, Jy-An John; Liu, Yun

2012-01-01

Cavitation occurs in many fluid systems and can lead to severe material damage. To assist the study of cavitation damage, a novel testing method utilizing pulsed pressure was developed. In this talk, the scientific background and the technical approach of this development are present and preliminary testing results are discussed. It is expected that this technique can be used to evaluate cavitation damage under various testing conditions including harsh environments such as those relevant to geothermal power generation.

A STUDY OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY IN IDAHO, PART III.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LOUDERMILK, KENNETH M.; AND OTHERS

DATA COLLECTED FROM 27 LUMBER MILLS THROUGH 131 SUPERVISOR INTERVIEWS AND 1,192 EMPLOYEE QUESTIONNAIRES IDENTIFIED 188 JOB TITLES FOR 3,871 EMPLOYEES. EMPLOYMENT EXPANSION WAS PLANNED BY 36 FIRMS, AND A DECREASE WAS EXPECTED BY 20 FIRMS. MOST FIRMS MADE EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ON AN ANNUAL BASIS, REFLECTING THEIR ANNUAL BUDGET PRACTICES.…

75 FR 32845 - Consultative Examination-Annual Onsite Review of Medical Providers

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-10

.... ACTION: Final rules. SUMMARY: We are revising the threshold billing amount that triggers annual on-site... titles II and XVI of the Social Security Act (Act). The revision will raise the threshold amount to reflect the increase in billing amounts since we first established the threshold amount in 1991. We expect...

Studying apple bruise using a finite element method analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoal-Faria, P.; Alves, N.

2017-07-01

Apple bruise damage from harvesting, handling, transporting and sorting is considered to be the major source of reduced fruit quality, resulting in a loss of profits for the entire fruit industry. Bruising is defined as damage and discoloration of fruit flesh, usually with no breach of the skin. The three factors which can physically cause fruit bruising are vibration, compression load and impact. The last one is the main source of bruise damage. Therefore, prediction of the level of damage, stress distribution and deformation of the fruits under external force has become a very important task. To address these problems a finite element analysis has been developed for studying Portuguese Royal Gala apple bruise. The results obtained will be suitable to apple distributors and sellers and will allow a reduction of the impact caused by bruise damage in apple annual production.

Gypsy moth life system model

Treesearch

J. J. Colbert; G. E. Racin

1991-01-01

The model is composed of four major subsystems that are driven by weather. The stand subsystem incorporates the effects of damage by the gypsy moth into annual tree diameter and height growth as well as tree mortality.

National Economic Development Procedures Manual. Coastal Storm Damage and Erosion

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

study area is temperate with warm summers and moderate winters. The annual temperature averages approximately 53 degrees Fahrenheit (*F). On average ...January is the coolest month with a mean temperature of 32°F and July is the warmest month. The average annual precipitation is about 45 inches with...0704.0188 Public rooing burden for rhr$ LoIlecton of ,nformaton .s estma eO to average I hour oer resiorse including the time for resrewing inttuctiOn

Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II.

PubMed

Ilg, Patrick; Gabbert, Silke; Weikard, Hans-Peter

2017-07-01

This article compares different strategies for handling low- and medium-level nuclear waste buried in a retired potassium mine in Germany (Asse II) that faces significant risk of uncontrollable brine intrusion and, hence, long-term groundwater contamination. We survey the policy process that has resulted in the identification of three possible so-called decommissioning options: complete backfilling, relocation of the waste to deeper levels in the mine, and retrieval. The selection of a decommissioning strategy must compare expected investment costs with expected social damage costs (economic, environmental, and health damage costs) caused by flooding and subsequent groundwater contamination. We apply a cost minimization approach that accounts for the uncertainty regarding the stability of the rock formation and the risk of an uncontrollable brine intrusion. Since economic and health impacts stretch out into the far future, we examine the impact of different discounting methods and rates. Due to parameter uncertainty, we conduct a sensitivity analysis concerning key assumptions. We find that retrieval, the currently preferred option by policymakers, has the lowest expected social damage costs for low discount rates. However, this advantage is overcompensated by higher expected investment costs. Considering all costs, backfilling is the best option for all discounting scenarios considered. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Radiation risk estimation and its application to human beings in space.

PubMed

Sinclair, W K

1984-01-01

The number of human beings likely to spend time in space will increase as time goes on. While exposures vary according to missions, orbits, shielding, etc., an average space radiation fluence (ignoring solar flares, radiation belts and anomalous regions in space) in locations close to earth is about 10 rad/year with a quality factor of about 5.5. The potential effects of exposure to these fluences include both non-stochastic effects and stochastic effects (cancer and genetic damage). Non-stochastic effects, damage to the lens of the eye, bone marrow or gonads, can be avoided by keeping radiation limits below threshold values. Stochastic effects imply risk at all levels. The magnitude of these risks has been discussed in a number of reports by the UNSCEAR Committee and the BEIR Committee in the USA during 1970-1980. The uncertainties associated with these risks and information which has become available since the last BEIR report is discussed. In considering reasonable limits for exposure in space, acceptable levels for stochastic risks must be based on appropriate comparisons. In view of the limited term of duty of most space workers, a lifetime limit may be appropriate. This lifetime limit might be comparable in terms of risks with limits for radiation workers on the ground but received at a higher annual rate for a shorter time. These and other approaches are expected to be considered by an NCRP Committee currently examining the problem of space radiation hazards.

The Role of Replication in Activation of the DNA Damage Checkpoint

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

St AD Award Number : W81XWH-04-1-0311 TITLE: The Role of Replication in Activation of the DNA Damage Checkpoint PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Christopher...Van CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 REPORT DATE: March 2006 TYPE OF REPORT: Annual Summary PREPARED FOR: U.S. Army...to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number . PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE

Bridging the Gulf: A New Paradigm for Emergency Management on America’s Third Border

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

reconnaissance, engineering assistance and security were critical to the success of the immediate response, but questions were raised on its cost ...billions of dollars of damage. Flooding, too, occurs annually, but no reliable estimates are available of the cost in human lives and property...occur so frequently that they account for hundreds of millions of dollars in damage every year. While not as spectacular, drought can be more harmful

Laser induced damage in optical materials: 8th ASTM symposium.

PubMed

Glass, A J; Guenther, A H

1977-05-01

The Eighth Annual Symposium on Optical Materials for High Power Lasers (Boulder Damage Symposium) was hosted by the National Bureau of Standards in Boulder, Colorado, from 13 to 15 July 1976. The Symposium was held under the auspices of ASTM Committee F-1, Subcommittee on Laser Standards, with the joint sponsorship of NBS, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, the Energy Research and Development Administration, and the Office of Naval Research. About 160 scientists attended the Symposium, including representatives of the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Brazil. The Symposium was divided into five half-day sessions concerning Bulk Material Properties and Thermal Behavior, Mirrors and Surfaces, Thin Film Properties, Thin Film Damage, and Scaling Laws and Fundamental Mechanisms. As in previous years, the emphasis of the papers presented at the Symposium was directed toward new frontiers and new developments. Particular emphasis was given to new materials for use at 10.6 microm in mirror substrates, windo s, and coatings. New techniques in film deposition and advances in diamond-turning of optics were described. The scaling of damage thresholds with pulse duration, focal area, and wavelength were discussed. Alexander J. Glass of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory and Arthur H. Guenther of the Air Force Weapons Laboratory were co-chairpersons of the Symposium. The Ninth Annual Symposium is scheduled for 4-6 October 1977 at the National Bureau of Standards, Boulder, Colorado.

Mapping Canopy Damage from Understory Fires in Amazon Forests Using Annual Time Series of Landsat and MODIS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, Douglas C.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Souza, Carlos M., Jr.; Kasischke, Eric S.; Hurtt, George C.; Dubayah, Ralph

2011-01-01

Understory fires in Amazon forests alter forest structure, species composition, and the likelihood of future disturbance. The annual extent of fire-damaged forest in Amazonia remains uncertain due to difficulties in separating burning from other types of forest damage in satellite data. We developed a new approach, the Burn Damage and Recovery (BDR) algorithm, to identify fire-related canopy damages using spatial and spectral information from multi-year time series of satellite data. The BDR approach identifies understory fires in intact and logged Amazon forests based on the reduction and recovery of live canopy cover in the years following fire damages and the size and shape of individual understory burn scars. The BDR algorithm was applied to time series of Landsat (1997-2004) and MODIS (2000-2005) data covering one Landsat scene (path/row 226/068) in southern Amazonia and the results were compared to field observations, image-derived burn scars, and independent data on selective logging and deforestation. Landsat resolution was essential for detection of burn scars less than 50 ha, yet these small burns contributed only 12% of all burned forest detected during 1997-2002. MODIS data were suitable for mapping medium (50-500 ha) and large (greater than 500 ha) burn scars that accounted for the majority of all fire-damaged forest in this study. Therefore, moderate resolution satellite data may be suitable to provide estimates of the extent of fire-damaged Amazon forest at a regional scale. In the study region, Landsat-based understory fire damages in 1999 (1508 square kilometers) were an order of magnitude higher than during the 1997-1998 El Nino event (124 square kilometers and 39 square kilometers, respectively), suggesting a different link between climate and understory fires than previously reported for other Amazon regions. The results in this study illustrate the potential to address critical questions concerning climate and fire risk in Amazon forests by applying the BDR algorithm over larger areas and longer image time series.

Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

2018-05-01

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C.

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-09-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2010. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2007.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2007. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2008. 

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2008. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2011.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2011. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2013.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2013. Selected crash statistics on passenger vehicles are also presented ...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and : property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2009. Selected crash statistics on passenger : vehicles are also presen...

Large truck and bus crash facts, 2012.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

This annual edition of Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts contains descriptive statistics about fatal, injury, and property damage only crashes involving large trucks and buses in 2012. Selected crash statistics on passenger vehicles are also presented ...

Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent bark beetle epidemics have caused regional-scale tree mortality in many snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments of western North America. Initial expectations of increased streamflow have not been supported by observations, and the basin-scale response of annual streamflow is largely unknown....

User's guide to the stand-damage model: a component of the gypsy moth life system model

Treesearch

J. J. Colbert; George Racin

1995-01-01

The Stand-Damage Model (a component of the Gypsy Moth Life System Model) simulates the growth of a mixed hardwood forest and incorporates the effects of defoliation by gypsy moth or tree harvesting as prescribed by the user. It can be used to assess the damage from expected defoliation, view the differences between various degrees of defoliation, and describe the...

"I'd Be Expecting Caviar in Lectures": The Impact of the New Fee Regime on Undergraduate Students' Expectations of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bates, Elizabeth A.; Kaye, Linda K.

2014-01-01

The introduction of the new tuition fee regime in the UK has resulted in growing concerns about the impact on students' expectations of their university experiences (e.g. Jones in "Perspectives" 14(2):44-48, 2010). This is coupled with reports from those such as the OIA (Office of the Independent Adjudicator (2012) Annual Report.…

Vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of selected southwestern crops to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

By the middle of the 21st Century, maximum annual temperatures in the Southwest (SW) are expected to increase by 2-4 C with the highest increases occurring in the summer months of Jun-Aug. While annual precipitation may remain similar to 1971-2000 values, Mar-May precipitation in the SW may decline ...

2005-06 Annual Report to the Ministry of Advanced Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

British Columbia Council on Admissions and Transfer, 2006

2006-01-01

On March 8, 2005, the Ministry of Advanced Education sent British Columbia Council on Admissions and Transfer, (BCCAT) a management letter setting out the expectations of the Ministry of Advanced Education for the BC Council on Admissions and Transfer in 2005-06. This Annual Report is presented to specify how BCCAT has addressed those expectations…

75 FR 3731 - Notice of Public Information Collection(s) Being Submitted for Review and Approval to the Office...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-22

..., 332, 336, and 337. Total Annual Burden: 32,925 hours. Total Annual Cost: $1,625,000. Privacy Act... MHz band, and more are expected to commence operation soon. Interference from wireless microphones... Commission provides for these early clearing and consumer disclosure measures to commence as early as...

Managing Tradeoffs between Hydropower and the Environment in the Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loucks, Daniel P.; Wild, Thomas B.

2015-04-01

Hydropower dams are being designed and constructed at a rapid pace in the Mekong/Lancang River basin in Southeast Asia. These reservoirs are expected to trap significant amounts sediment, decreasing much of the river's capability to transport nutrients and maintain its geomorphology and habitats. We apply a simulation model for identifying and evaluating alternative dam siting, design and operating policy (SDO) options that could help maintain more natural sediment regimes downstream of dams and for evaluating the effect of these sediment-focused SDO strategies on hydropower production and reliability. We apply this approach to the planned reservoirs that would prevent a significant source of sediment from reaching critical Mekong ecosystems such as Cambodia's Tonle Sap Lake and the Mekong delta in Vietnam. Model results suggest that various SDO modifications could increase sediment discharge from this site by 300-450% compared to current plans, but a 30-55% loss in short-term annual energy production depending on various configurations of upstream reservoirs. Simulation results also suggest that sediment management-focused reservoir operating policies could cause ecological damage if they are not properly implemented.

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W

2018-01-01

Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

High effectiveness of tailored flower strips in reducing pests and crop plant damage.

PubMed

Tschumi, Matthias; Albrecht, Matthias; Entling, Martin H; Jacot, Katja

2015-09-07

Providing key resources to animals may enhance both their biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. We examined the performance of annual flower strips targeted at the promotion of natural pest control in winter wheat. Flower strips were experimentally sown along 10 winter wheat fields across a gradient of landscape complexity (i.e. proportion non-crop area within 750 m around focal fields) and compared with 15 fields with wheat control strips. We found strong reductions in cereal leaf beetle(CLB) density (larvae: 40%; adults of the second generation: 53%) and plant damage caused by CLB (61%) in fields with flower strips compared with control fields. Natural enemies of CLB were strongly increased in flower strips and in part also in adjacent wheat fields. Flower strip effects on natural enemies, pests and crop damage were largely independent of landscape complexity(8-75% non-crop area). Our study demonstrates a high effectiveness of annual flower strips in promoting pest control, reducing CLB pest levels below the economic threshold. Hence, the studied flower strip offers a viable alternative to insecticides. This highlights the high potential of tailored agri-environment schemes to contribute to ecological intensification and may encourage more farmers to adopt such schemes.

Deciphering the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: More Active Versus Less Active During the Present Epoch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1998-01-01

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane damage potential scale) were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960's than thereafter (hence a possible two-state division: more active versus less active), and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature may be statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of 4- and 10-yr moving averages, one finds that there exists strong linear associations between the annual frequency of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and temperature (specially, when temperature slightly leads). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now decidedly upward, beginning about the mid 1980's, it is inferred that the long-term consequential trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, having begun near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred. However, because of the anomalous El Nino activity of the early to mid 1990's, the switch from the less active to the more active state essentially went unnoticed (a marked increase in the number of intense hurricanes was not observed until the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, following the end of the anomalous El Nino activity). Presuming that a return to the more active state has, indeed, occurred, one expects the number of seasonal intense hurricanes during the present epoch (continuing through about 2012) to usually be higher than average (i.e., greater than or equal to 2), except during El Nino-related seasons when the number usually will be less than average.

A combined field and numerical approach to understanding dilute pyroclastic density current dynamics and hazard potential: Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brand, Brittany D.; Gravley, Darren M.; Clarke, Amanda B.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Bloomberg, Simon H.; Agustin-Flores, Javier; Németh, Károly

2014-04-01

The most dangerous and deadly hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; Auckland, New Zealand) are those related to volcanic base surges - dilute, ground-hugging, particle laden currents with dynamic pressures capable of severe to complete structural damage. We use the well-exposed base surge deposits of the Maungataketake tuff ring (Manukau coast, Auckland), to reconstruct flow dynamics and destructive potential of base surges produced during the eruption. The initial base surge(s) snapped trees up to 0.5 m in diameter near their base as far as 0.7-0.9 km from the vent. Beyond this distance the trees were encapsulated and buried by the surge in growth position. Using the tree diameter and yield strength of the wood we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) in excess of 12-35 kPa are necessary to cause the observed damage. Next we develop a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) to determine the damage potential of the base surges produced during the early phases of the eruption and explore the implications of this potential on future eruptions in the region. We find that initial conditions with velocities on the order of 65 m s- 1, bulk density of 38 kg m- 3 and initial, near-vent current thicknesses of 60 m reproduce the field-based Pdyn estimates and runout distances. A sensitivity analysis revealed that lower initial bulk densities result in shorter run-out distances, more rapid deceleration of the current and lower dynamic pressures. Initial velocity does not have a strong influence on run-out distance, although higher initial velocity and slope slightly decrease runout distance due to higher rates of atmospheric entrainment. Using this model we determine that for base surges with runout distances of up to 4 km, complete destruction can be expected within 0.5 km from the vent, moderate destruction can be expected up to 2 km, but much less damage is expected up to the final runout distance of 4 km. For larger eruptions (base surge runout distance 4-6 km), Pdyn of > 35 kPa can be expected up to 2.5 km from source, ensuring complete destruction within this area. Moderate damage to reinforced structures and damage to weaker structures can be expected up to 6 km from source. In both cases hot ash may still cause damage due to igniting flammable materials in the distal-most regions of a base surge. This work illustrates our ability to combine field observations and numerical models to explore the depositional mechanisms, macroscale current dynamics, and potential impact of dilute PDCs. Thus, this approach may serve as a tool to understand the damage potential and extent of previous and potential future eruptions in the AVF.

29 CFR 1919.90 - Documentation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...(f) Test Supervision .10(b) Annual Examinations: (see Examinations). Assistant Secretary .2(d) Blocks...). Cargo Gear: Braking Devices .22 Chains .25 Damaged Components .20 Definition .2(b) Derrick Attachment...: (see Gear Certification). Shore-Based Materials Handling Devices .70(a) Chains, Limitations .25...

29 CFR 1919.90 - Documentation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...(f) Test Supervision .10(b) Annual Examinations: (see Examinations). Assistant Secretary .2(d) Blocks...). Cargo Gear: Braking Devices .22 Chains .25 Damaged Components .20 Definition .2(b) Derrick Attachment...: (see Gear Certification). Shore-Based Materials Handling Devices .70(a) Chains, Limitations .25...

28 CFR 104.21 - Filing for compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... or she has dismissed any pending lawsuit seeking damages as a result of the terrorist-related..., but not limited to, the spouse, former spouses, children, other dependents, and parents), to the... reasonably be expected to assert an interest in an award or to have a cause of action to recover damages...

28 CFR 104.21 - Filing for compensation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... or she has dismissed any pending lawsuit seeking damages as a result of the terrorist-related..., but not limited to, the spouse, former spouses, children, other dependents, and parents), to the... reasonably be expected to assert an interest in an award or to have a cause of action to recover damages...

Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.

2009-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by maps of mortality and damage based on historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates, with mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. Using the mechanistic model, we are able to include the effects of both disturbance and recovery on the net carbon flux. We find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. Recent increased hurricane activity has resulted in the region becoming a net carbon source. For the future, several recent studies have linked increased sea surface temperatures expected with climate change to increased hurricane activity. Based on these relationships, we investigate a range of scenarios of future hurricane activity and find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. In our scenario with the largest increase in hurricane activity, we find a 35% increase in area disturbed by 2100, but due to the reduction of standing biomass, only a 20% increase in biomass loss per year. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests of the eastern U.S.

Chagas disease in European countries: the challenge of a surveillance system.

PubMed

Basile, L; Jansa, J M; Carlier, Y; Salamanca, D D; Angheben, A; Bartoloni, A; Seixas, J; Van Gool, T; Canavate, C; Flores-Chavez, M; Jackson, Y; Chiodini, P L; Albajar-Vinas, P

2011-09-15

A study of aggregate data collected from the literature and official sources was undertaken to estimate expected and observed prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection, annual incidence of congenital transmission and rate of underdiagnosis of Chagas disease among Latin American migrants in the nine European countries with the highest prevalence of Chagas disease. Formal and informal data sources were used to estimate the population from endemic countries resident in Europe in 2009, diagnosed cases of Chagas disease and births from mothers originating from endemic countries. By 2009, 4,290 cases had been diagnosed in Europe, compared with an estimated 68,000 to 122,000 expected cases. The expected prevalence was very high in undocumented migrants (on average 45% of total expected cases) while the observed prevalence rate was 1.3 cases per 1,000 resident migrants from endemic countries. An estimated 20 to 183 babies with congenital Chagas disease are born annually in the study countries. The annual incidence rate of congenital transmission per 1,000 pregnancies in women from endemic countries was between none and three cases. The index of under diagnosis of T. cruzi infection was between 94% and 96%. Chagas disease is a public health challenge in the studied European countries. Urgent measures need to be taken to detect new cases of congenital transmission and take care of the existing cases with a focus on migrants without legal residency permit and potential difficulty accessing care.

Annual Report to the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization on the Free-Electron Laser Driven by the NIST CW Microtron

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-05

design of the injector for the method selected was completed. A study on the problem of mirror damage has been completed, and commercial suppliers of... mirrors that can withstand the high intracavity power of the FEL have been identified. The design of the room in which the FEL is located has been...Appendices ............ ............................. .25 A. Design Note 10 - Mirror Damage B. Design Note 11 - Wiggler Field Errors C. Design Note 12

Flash floods of August 10, 2009, in the Villages of Gowanda and Silver Creek, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Szabo, Carolyn O.; Coon, William F.; Niziol, Thomas A.

2011-01-01

Late during the night of August 9, 2009, two storm systems intersected over western New York and produced torrential rain that caused severe flash flooding during the early morning hours of August 10 in parts of Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, and Erie Counties. Nearly 6 inches of rain fell in 1.5 hours as recorded by a National Weather Service weather observer in Perrysburg, which lies between Gowanda and Silver Creek-the communities that suffered the most damage. This storm intensity had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years). Although flooding along Cattaraugus Creek occurred elsewhere, Cattaraugus Creek was responsible for very little flooding in Gowanda. Rather the small tributaries, Thatcher Brook and Grannis Brook, caused the flooding in Gowanda, as did Silver Creek and Walnut Creek in the Village of Silver Creek. Damages from the flooding were widespread. Numerous road culverts were washed out, and more than one-quarter of the roads in Cattaraugus County were damaged. Many people were evacuated or rescued in Gowanda and Silver Creek, and two deaths occurred during the flood in Gowanda. The water supplies of both communities were compromised by damages to village reservoirs and water-transmission infrastructures. Water and mud damage to residential and commercial properties was extensive. The tri-county area was declared a Federal disaster area and more than $45 million in Federal disaster assistance was distributed to more than 1,500 individuals and an estimated 1,100 public projects. The combined total estimate of damages from the flash floods was greater than $90 million. Over 240 high-water marks were surveyed by the U.S. Geological Survey; a subset of these marks was used to create flood-water-surface profiles for four streams and to delineate the areal extent of flooding in Gowanda and Silver Creek. Flood elevations exceeded previously defined 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (500-year recurrence interval) elevations by 2 to 4 feet in Gowanda and as much as 6 to 8 feet in Silver Creek. Most of the high-water marks were used in indirect hydraulic computations to estimate peak flows for four streams. The peak flows in Grannis Brook and Thatcher Brook were computed, using the slope-area method, to be 1,400 and 7,600 cubic feet per second, respectively, and peak flow in Silver Creek was computed, using the width-contraction method, to be 19,500 cubic feet per second. The annual exceedance probabilities for flows in these and other basins with small drainage areas that fell almost entirely within the area of heaviest precipitation were less than 0.2 percent (or recurrence intervals greater than 500 years). The peak flow in Cattaraugus Creek at Gowanda was computed, using the slope-area method, to be 33,200 cubic feet per second with an annual exceedance probability of 2.2 percent (recurrence interval of 45 years).

Nano-JASMINE: current status and data output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Yukiyasu; Yano, Taihei; Gouda, Naoteru; Niwa, Yoshito; Murooka, Jyunpei; Yamada, Yoshiyuki; Sako, Nobutada; Nakasuka, Shin'ichi

2010-07-01

The current status of the Nano-JASMINE project is reported. Nano-JASMINE is a very small-sized (50 cm cubic form) satellite that is expected to carry out astrometric observations of nearby bright stars. The satellite will determine distances of more than 8000 stars by performing annual parallax measurements, which is the only direct method to measure the distance of an astronomical object. The mission is required to continue for more than two years to obtain reliable annual parallax measurements. In addition, Nano-JASMINE will serve as a preliminary to the main JASMINE mission. We expect that Nano-JASMINE will be launched in August 2011 from the Alcantara Space Center in Brazil using the Cyclone-4 rocket.

Swimming against the tide: resilience of a riverine turtle to recurrent extreme environmental events.

PubMed

Jergenson, Abigail M; Miller, David A W; Neuman-Lee, Lorin A; Warner, Daniel A; Janzen, Fredric J

2014-03-01

Extreme environmental events (EEEs) are likely to exert deleterious effects on populations. From 1996 to 2012 we studied the nesting dynamics of a riverine population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) that experienced seven years with significantly definable spring floods. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to estimate the relationships between more than 5 m and more than 6 m flood events and population parameters. Contrary to expectations, flooding was not associated with annual differences in survival, recruitment or annual population growth rates of the adult female segment of the population. These findings suggest that female C. picta exhibit resiliency to key EEE, which are expected to increase in frequency under climate change.

Idea-Centered Laboratory Science (I-CLS), [Unit] C, How a Scientist Expects His World To Behave.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Deventer, William C.; Duyser, Lucille

The major ideas of this unit are: consistency and uniformity, cause and effect, and parsimony. Laboratory experiences consist of investigations into: projecting expectations, moon and stars, the relationships among different kinds of change (daily, monthly, annual temperature changes), force and motion, chemical reactions, superstitions, origin of…

Outcomes for Children Served through IDEA's Early Childhood Programs: 2014-15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Early Childhood Technical Assistance Center, 2016

2016-01-01

In 2014-2015, children with delays or disabilities who received services under the Individuals with Disabilities Act (IDEA) showed greater than expected developmental progress. Many children exited the program functioning within age expectations, and most made progress. States' Part C and Part B Preschool programs report data annually on three…

46 CFR 2.10-105 - Prepayment of annual vessel inspection fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... the design life or remaining expected service life of the vessel. (b) To prepay the annual vessel... present value using the following formula: ER13MR95.000 Where: PV is the Present Value of the series of... i is the interest rate for 10-year Treasury notes at the time of prepayment calculation π is the...

46 CFR 2.10-105 - Prepayment of annual vessel inspection fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... the design life or remaining expected service life of the vessel. (b) To prepay the annual vessel... present value using the following formula: ER13MR95.000 Where: PV is the Present Value of the series of... i is the interest rate for 10-year Treasury notes at the time of prepayment calculation π is the...

46 CFR 2.10-105 - Prepayment of annual vessel inspection fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... the design life or remaining expected service life of the vessel. (b) To prepay the annual vessel... present value using the following formula: ER13MR95.000 Where: PV is the Present Value of the series of... i is the interest rate for 10-year Treasury notes at the time of prepayment calculation π is the...

46 CFR 2.10-105 - Prepayment of annual vessel inspection fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... the design life or remaining expected service life of the vessel. (b) To prepay the annual vessel... present value using the following formula: ER13MR95.000 Where: PV is the Present Value of the series of... i is the interest rate for 10-year Treasury notes at the time of prepayment calculation π is the...

46 CFR 2.10-105 - Prepayment of annual vessel inspection fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... the design life or remaining expected service life of the vessel. (b) To prepay the annual vessel... present value using the following formula: ER13MR95.000 Where: PV is the Present Value of the series of... i is the interest rate for 10-year Treasury notes at the time of prepayment calculation π is the...

Aspects of Reading Acquisition; Proceedings of the Annual Hyman Blumberg Symposium on Research in Early Childhood Education (5th, Johns Hopkins University, Nov. 13-14, 1974).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guthrie, John T., Ed.

Papers collected in this volume were presented at the Fifth Annual Blumberg Symposium on Research in Early Childhood Education, held at Johns Hopkins University in 1974. Selections include "Alexia" (D. Frank Benson), "Young Children's Expectations for Reading" (Doris R. Entwisle), "Relations between Acquisition of…

Selected Works from the Proceedings of the Annual Communications Research Symposium (9th, Knoxville, Tennessee, April 10-11, 1986). Vol. 9.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singletary, Michael W., Ed.

Featuring 11 articles of original research, this collection presents selected works from the proceedings of the ninth Annual Communications Research Symposium. Following are the titles and authors of the articles included: (1) "Issues in Inferring Media Effects from Surveys" (S. H. Chaffee); (2) "Expectancy Value Theory and…

Proceedings of the Office of Special Education Programs' Annual Technical Assistance and Dissemination Meeting (6th, Washington, DC, January 16-18, 1996).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Special Education Programs (ED/OSERS), Washington, DC.

This document presents the proceedings for the Office of Special Education Programs' 6th Annual Technical Assistance and Dissemination Meeting held on January 16-18, 1996, in Washington, DC. Conference discussions centered around changing expectations for local and state education agencies and technical assistance and dissemination (TA&D)…

Pacific Northwest Laboratory annual report for 1988 to the DOE Office of Energy Research: Part 4, Physical sciences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Touburen, L.H.

1989-03-01

This document contains brief descriptions of various research programs in the physical science. Topics include Chernobyl Information Management, Supercritical Fluids, Laser Spectroscopy, DNA Adducts, Dosimetry, Biophysics, and Genetic Damage. (TEM)

Large truck crash profile : the 1998 national picture

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

This annual edition of the Large Truck Crash Profile contains descriptive statistics about fatal and non-fatal (injury and property-damage-only) large truck crashes that occurred in 1998. The profile includes only some of the major aspects of truck c...

Micro-Macro Analysis and Phenomenological Modelling of Salt Viscous Damage and Application to Salt Caverns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Cheng; Pouya, Ahmad; Arson, Chloé

2015-11-01

This paper aims to gain fundamental understanding of the microscopic mechanisms that control the transition between secondary and tertiary creep around salt caverns in typical geological storage conditions. We use a self-consistent inclusion-matrix model to homogenize the viscoplastic deformation of halite polycrystals and predict the number of broken grains in a Representative Elementary Volume of salt. We use this micro-macro modeling framework to simulate creep tests under various axial stresses, which gives us the critical viscoplastic strain at which grain breakage (i.e., tertiary creep) is expected to occur. The comparison of simulation results for short-term and long-term creep indicates that the initiation of tertiary creep depends on the stress and the viscoplastic strain. We use the critical viscoplastic deformation as a yield criterion to control the transition between secondary and tertiary creep in a phenomenological viscoplastic model, which we implement into the Finite Element Method program POROFIS. We model a 850-m-deep salt cavern of irregular shape, in axis-symmetric conditions. Simulations of cavern depressurization indicate that a strain-dependent damage evolution law is more suitable than a stress-dependent damage evolution law, because it avoids high damage concentrations and allows capturing the formation of a damaged zone around the cavity. The modeling framework explained in this paper is expected to provide new insights to link grain breakage to phenomenological damage variables used in Continuum Damage Mechanics.

A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

2014-05-01

This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the regional flood risk can be expressed in terms of expected annual damage and damages associated with a low probability of occurrence. We consider building protection measures explicitly as part of the consequence analysis of flood risk whereas spatial planning measures are already considered as explicit scenarios in the course of land-use change modelling.

Multidimensional trade-offs in species responses to disturbance: implications for diversity in a subtropical forest.

PubMed

Uriarte, María; Clark, James S; Zimmerman, Jess K; Comita, Liza S; Forero-Montaña, Jimena; Thompson, Jill

2012-01-01

Species employ diverse strategies to cope with natural disturbance, but the importance of these strategies for maintaining tree species diversity in forests has been debated. Mechanisms that have the potential to promote tree species coexistence in the context of repeated disturbance include life history trade-offs in colonization and competitive ability or in species' ability to survive at low resource conditions and exploit the temporary resource-rich conditions often generated in the wake of disturbance (successional niche). Quantifying these trade-offs requires long-term forest monitoring and modeling. We developed a hierarchical Bayes model to investigate the strategies tree species employ to withstand and recover from hurricane disturbance and the life history trade-offs that may facilitate species coexistence in forests subject to repeated hurricane disturbance. Unlike previous approaches, our model accommodates temporal variation in process error and observations from multiple sources. We parameterized the model using growth and mortality data from four censuses of a 16-ha plot taken every five years (1990-2005), together with damage data collected after two hurricanes and annual seed production data (1992-2005). Species' susceptibilities to hurricane damage as reflected by changes in diameter growth and fecundity immediately following a storm were weak, highly variable, and unpredictable using traditional life history groupings. The lower crowding conditions (e.g., high light) generated in the wake of storms, however, led to greater gains in growth and fecundity for pioneer and secondary-forest species than for shade-tolerant species, in accordance with expectation of life history. We found moderate trade-offs between survival in high crowding conditions, a metric of competitive ability, and long-distance colonization. We also uncovered a strong trade-off between mean species fecundity in low crowding conditions, a metric of recovery potential, and competitive ability. Trade-offs in competitive and colonization ability, in addition to successional niche processes, are likely to contribute to species persistence in these hurricane-impacted forests. The strategies species employ to cope with hurricane damage depend on the degree to which species rely on sprouting, repair of adult damage, changes in demographic rates in response to enhanced resource availability after storms, or long-distance dispersal as recovery mechanisms.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-05-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

Direct and indirect costs for systemic lupus erythematosus in Sweden. A nationwide health economic study based on five defined cohorts.

PubMed

Jönsen, Andreas; Hjalte, Frida; Willim, Minna; Carlsson, Katarina Steen; Sjöwall, Christopher; Svenungsson, Elisabet; Leonard, Dag; Bengtsson, Christine; Rantapää-Dahlqvist, Solbritt; Pettersson, Susanne; Gunnarsson, Iva; Zickert, Agneta; Gustafsson, Johanna T; Rönnblom, Lars; Petersson, Ingemar F; Bengtsson, Anders A; Nived, Ola

2016-06-01

The main objectives of this study were to calculate total costs of illness and cost-driving disease features among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Sweden. Five cohorts of well-defined SLE patients, located in different parts of the country were merged. Incident and prevalent cases from 2003 through 2010 were included. The American College of Rheumatology (ACR) classification criteria was used. From the local cohorts, data on demographics, disease activity (SLEDAI 2K), and organ damage (SDI) were collected. Costs for inpatient care, specialist outpatient care and drugs were retrieved from national registries at the National Board of Health and Welfare. Indirect costs were calculated based on sickness leave and disability pensions from the Swedish Social Insurance Agency. In total, 1029 SLE patients, 88% females, were included, and approximately 75% were below 65 years at the end of follow-up, and thus in working age. The mean number of annual specialist physician visits varied from six to seven; mean annual inpatient days were 3.1-3.6, and mean annual sick leave was 123-148 days, all per patient. The total annual cost was 208,555 SEK ($33,369 = 22,941€), of which direct cost was 63,672kr ($10,188 = 7004€) and the indirect cost was 144,883 SEK ($23,181 = 15,937€), all per patient. The costs for patients with short disease duration were higher. Higher disease activity as measured by a SLEDAI 2K score > 3 was associated with approximately 50% increase in both indirect and direct costs. Damage in the neuropsychiatric and musculoskeletal domains were also linked to higher direct and indirect costs, while organ damage in the renal and ocular systems increased direct costs. Based on this study and an estimate of slightly more than 6000 SLE patients in Sweden, the total annual cost for SLE in the country is estimated at $188 million (=129.5 million €). Both direct (30%) and indirect costs (70%) are substantial. Medication accounts for less than 10% of the total cost. The tax paid national systems for health care and social security in Sweden ensure equal access to health care, sick leave reimbursements, and disability pensions nationwide. Our extrapolated annual costs for SLE in Sweden are therefore the best supported estimations thus far, and they clearly underline the importance of improved management, especially to reduce the indirect costs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low-dose chest computed tomography for lung cancer screening among Hodgkin lymphoma survivors: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Wattson, Daniel A; Hunink, M G Myriam; DiPiro, Pamela J; Das, Prajnan; Hodgson, David C; Mauch, Peter M; Ng, Andrea K

2014-10-01

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors face an increased risk of treatment-related lung cancer. Screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) may allow detection of early stage, resectable cancers. We developed a Markov decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness model to estimate the merits of annual LDCT screening among HL survivors. Population databases and HL-specific literature informed key model parameters, including lung cancer rates and stage distribution, cause-specific survival estimates, and utilities. Relative risks accounted for radiation therapy (RT) technique, smoking status (>10 pack-years or current smokers vs not), age at HL diagnosis, time from HL treatment, and excess radiation from LDCTs. LDCT assumptions, including expected stage-shift, false-positive rates, and likely additional workup were derived from the National Lung Screening Trial and preliminary results from an internal phase 2 protocol that performed annual LDCTs in 53 HL survivors. We assumed a 3% discount rate and a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Annual LDCT screening was cost effective for all smokers. A male smoker treated with mantle RT at age 25 achieved maximum QALYs by initiating screening 12 years post-HL, with a life expectancy benefit of 2.1 months and an incremental cost of $34,841/QALY. Among nonsmokers, annual screening produced a QALY benefit in some cases, but the incremental cost was not below the WTP threshold for any patient subsets. As age at HL diagnosis increased, earlier initiation of screening improved outcomes. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates and expected stage-shift from screening. HL survivors are an important high-risk population that may benefit from screening, especially those treated in the past with large radiation fields including mantle or involved-field RT. Screening may be cost effective for all smokers but possibly not for nonsmokers despite a small life expectancy benefit. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Annual coral bleaching and the long-term recovery capacity of coral

PubMed Central

Schoepf, Verena; Grottoli, Andréa G.; Levas, Stephen J.; Aschaffenburg, Matthew D.; Baumann, Justin H.; Matsui, Yohei; Warner, Mark E.

2015-01-01

Mass bleaching events are predicted to occur annually later this century. Nevertheless, it remains unknown whether corals will be able to recover between annual bleaching events. Using a combined tank and field experiment, we simulated annual bleaching by exposing three Caribbean coral species (Porites divaricata, Porites astreoides and Orbicella faveolata) to elevated temperatures for 2.5 weeks in 2 consecutive years. The impact of annual bleaching stress on chlorophyll a, energy reserves, calcification, and tissue C and N isotopes was assessed immediately after the second bleaching and after both short- and long-term recovery on the reef (1.5 and 11 months, respectively). While P. divaricata and O. faveolata were able to recover from repeat bleaching within 1 year, P. astreoides experienced cumulative damage that prevented full recovery within this time frame, suggesting that repeat bleaching had diminished its recovery capacity. Specifically, P. astreoides was not able to recover protein and carbohydrate concentrations. As energy reserves promote bleaching resistance, failure to recover from annual bleaching within 1 year will likely result in the future demise of heat-sensitive coral species. PMID:26582020

Annual coral bleaching and the long-term recovery capacity of coral.

PubMed

Schoepf, Verena; Grottoli, Andréa G; Levas, Stephen J; Aschaffenburg, Matthew D; Baumann, Justin H; Matsui, Yohei; Warner, Mark E

2015-11-22

Mass bleaching events are predicted to occur annually later this century. Nevertheless, it remains unknown whether corals will be able to recover between annual bleaching events. Using a combined tank and field experiment, we simulated annual bleaching by exposing three Caribbean coral species (Porites divaricata, Porites astreoides and Orbicella faveolata) to elevated temperatures for 2.5 weeks in 2 consecutive years. The impact of annual bleaching stress on chlorophyll a, energy reserves, calcification, and tissue C and N isotopes was assessed immediately after the second bleaching and after both short- and long-term recovery on the reef (1.5 and 11 months, respectively). While P. divaricata and O. faveolata were able to recover from repeat bleaching within 1 year, P. astreoides experienced cumulative damage that prevented full recovery within this time frame, suggesting that repeat bleaching had diminished its recovery capacity. Specifically, P. astreoides was not able to recover protein and carbohydrate concentrations. As energy reserves promote bleaching resistance, failure to recover from annual bleaching within 1 year will likely result in the future demise of heat-sensitive coral species. © 2015 The Author(s).

A Simplified Algorithm for Statistical Investigation of Damage Spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gecow, Andrzej

2009-04-01

On the way to simulating adaptive evolution of complex system describing a living object or human developed project, a fitness should be defined on node states or network external outputs. Feedbacks lead to circular attractors of these states or outputs which make it difficult to define a fitness. The main statistical effects of adaptive condition are the result of small change tendency and to appear, they only need a statistically correct size of damage initiated by evolutionary change of system. This observation allows to cut loops of feedbacks and in effect to obtain a particular statistically correct state instead of a long circular attractor which in the quenched model is expected for chaotic network with feedback. Defining fitness on such states is simple. We calculate only damaged nodes and only once. Such an algorithm is optimal for investigation of damage spreading i.e. statistical connections of structural parameters of initial change with the size of effected damage. It is a reversed-annealed method—function and states (signals) may be randomly substituted but connections are important and are preserved. The small damages important for adaptive evolution are correctly depicted in comparison to Derrida annealed approximation which expects equilibrium levels for large networks. The algorithm indicates these levels correctly. The relevant program in Pascal, which executes the algorithm for a wide range of parameters, can be obtained from the author.

Intensive longleaf pine management for hurricane recovery: fourth-year results

Treesearch

David S. Dyson; Dale G. Brockway

2015-01-01

The frequency and intensity of hurricanes affecting the United States has been projected to increase during coming decades, and this rising level of cyclonic storm activity is expected to substantially damage southeastern forests. Although hurricane damage to forests in this region is not new, recent emphasis on longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill...

Uncertainty in urban flood damage assessment due to urban drainage modelling and depth-damage curve estimation.

PubMed

Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V

2010-01-01

Due to the increased occurrence of flooding events in urban areas, many procedures for flood damage quantification have been defined in recent decades. The lack of large databases in most cases is overcome by combining the output of urban drainage models and damage curves linking flooding to expected damage. The application of advanced hydraulic models as diagnostic, design and decision-making support tools has become a standard practice in hydraulic research and application. Flooding damage functions are usually evaluated by a priori estimation of potential damage (based on the value of exposed goods) or by interpolating real damage data (recorded during historical flooding events). Hydraulic models have undergone continuous advancements, pushed forward by increasing computer capacity. The details of the flooding propagation process on the surface and the details of the interconnections between underground and surface drainage systems have been studied extensively in recent years, resulting in progressively more reliable models. The same level of was advancement has not been reached with regard to damage curves, for which improvements are highly connected to data availability; this remains the main bottleneck in the expected flooding damage estimation. Such functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty intrinsically related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the adopted functional relationships. The present paper aimed to evaluate this uncertainty by comparing the intrinsic uncertainty connected to the construction of the damage-depth function to the hydraulic model uncertainty. In this way, the paper sought to evaluate the role of hydraulic model detail level in the wider context of flood damage estimation. This paper demonstrated that the use of detailed hydraulic models might not be justified because of the higher computational cost and the significant uncertainty in damage estimation curves. This uncertainty occurs mainly because a large part of the total uncertainty is dependent on depth-damage curves. Improving the estimation of these curves may provide better results in term of uncertainty reduction than the adoption of detailed hydraulic models.

Encounters of aircraft with volcanic ash clouds; A compilation of known incidents, 1953-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guffanti, Marianne; Casadevall, Thomas J.; Budding, Karin

2010-01-01

Information about reported encounters of aircraft with volcanic ash clouds from 1953 through 2009 has been compiled to document the nature and scope of risks to aviation from volcanic activity. The information, gleaned from a variety of published and other sources, is presented in database and spreadsheet formats; the compilation will be updated as additional encounters occur and as new data and corrections come to light. The effects observed by flight crews and extent of aircraft damage vary greatly among incidents, and each incident in the compilation is rated according to a severity index. Of the 129 reported incidents, 94 incidents are confirmed ash encounters, with 79 of those having various degrees of airframe or engine damage; 20 are low-severity events that involve suspected ash or gas clouds; and 15 have data that are insufficient to assess severity. Twenty-six of the damaging encounters involved significant to very severe damage to engines and (or) airframes, including nine encounters with engine shutdown during flight. The average annual rate of damaging encounters since 1976, when reporting picked up, has been approximately 2 per year. Most of the damaging encounters occurred within 24 hours of the onset of ash production or at distances less than 1,000 kilometers from the source volcanoes. The compilation covers only events of relatively short duration for which aircraft were checked for damage soon thereafter; documenting instances of long-term repeated exposure to ash (or sulfate aerosols) will require further investigation. Of 38 source volcanoes, 8 have caused 5 or more encounters, of which the majority were damaging: Augustine (United States), Chaiten (Chile), Mount St. Helens (United States), Pacaya (Guatemala), Pinatubo (Philippines), Redoubt (United States), Sakura-jima (Japan), and Soufriere Hills (Montserrat, Lesser Antilles, United Kingdom). Aircraft have been damaged by eruptions ranging from small, recurring episodes to very large, infrequent events. Moderate-size (Volcanic Explosivity Index 3) eruptions are responsible for nearly half of the damaging encounters. Vigilance is required during the early phases of eruptive activity when data about ash emission may be the most limited and warning capabilities the most strained, yet the risk the greatest. The risk-mitigation strategy for minimizing damaging encounters continues to rely on the combination of real-time volcano monitoring and rapid eruption reporting, detection and tracking of ash clouds in the atmosphere using satellite-based sensors, dispersion modeling to forecast expected ash-cloud movement, and global dissemination of specialized warning messages. To obtain the entire Data Series 545 report, download the text file and appendixes 1-4, which are available as separate files. Click on the links at right. Please Send Updates We hope that publication of this compilation will encourage more reporting of encounters by the aviation industry and civil aviation authorities. We actively seek corrections and additions to the information presented here. Persons who have corrections or additional data pertaining to incidents already in the database or who have data about previously unreported incidents are urged to contact the authors.

Correlation of fully-softened shear strength of clay soil with index properties : phase I.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Shallow slope failures in clay soils cause many millions of dollars of damage annually on highway : embankments and cut slopes and necessitate difficult and expensive repairs that negatively : impact budgets, traffic flow, and the environment. The em...

Thrips management program for ornamental plants

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Among the 5,500 (or more) well-described species of thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) worldwide, nearly 1% are known as economically important pests Owing to their polyphagous nature and damage potential to nursery and greenhouse production, thrips inflict millions of dollars loss annually. Thrips ca...

Mailing microscope slides

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many insects feed agriculturally important crops, trees, and ornamental plants and cause millions of dollars of damage annually. Identification for some of these require the preparation of a microscope slide for examination. There are times when a microscope slide may need to be sent away to a speci...

Intensive Culture on Northern Forest-Industry Lands: Trends, Expectations, and Needs

Treesearch

David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick; Dietmar W. Rose

1977-01-01

Results of a survey of intensive forest-culture practices on forest-industry lands in the North. Timber-stand improvement and commercial thinning have been and apparently will continue to be the most popular practices undertaken. Estimated increases in recent annual harvests due to intensive culture averaged about 4 percent, and greater increases are expected during...

Compulsory Education: Social Expectations. National Reports on the Theme for 1977 in Their Original Languages. 26th Assembly of Delegates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

World Confederation of Organizations of the Teaching Profession, Morges (Switzerland).

Reports prepared by various countries for presentation at the 1977 annual assembly of the World Confederation of Organizations of the Teaching Profession (WCOTP) are included in this document. The theme of the assembly was "Compulsory Education: Social Expectations." Countries reporting include: Austria, Bangladesh, Brazil, Brunei, Canada, Ivory…

76 FR 54715 - Western Pacific Bottomfish and Seamount Groundfish Fisheries; 2011-12 Main Hawaiian Islands Deep...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-02

... Hawaiian Islands for the 2011-12 fishing year, based on an annual catch limit of 346,000 lb. The expected... in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) for the 2011-12 fishing year, based on an annual catch limit (ACL.... 110711384-1534-02] RIN 0648-XA470 Western Pacific Bottomfish and Seamount Groundfish Fisheries; 2011-12 Main...

Use Trends Indicated by Statistically Calibrated Recreational Sites in the National Forest System

Treesearch

Gary L. Tyre

1971-01-01

Trends in statistically sampled use of developed sites in the National Forest system indicate an average annual increase of 6.0 percent in the period 1966-69. The high variability of the measure precludes its use for projecting expected future use, but it can be important in gauging the credibility of annual use changes at both sampled and unsampled locations.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

Damage to a facility roof is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

Damaged power lines are seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

Damage to a facility roof is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Electromagnetic pulse (EMP), Part I: Effects on field medical equipment.

PubMed

Vandre, R H; Klebers, J; Tesche, F M; Blanchard, J P

1993-04-01

The electromagnetic pulse (EMP) from a high-altitude nuclear detonation has the potential to cover an area as large as the continental United States with damaging levels of EMP radiation. In this study, two of seven items of medical equipment were damaged by an EMP simulator. Computer circuit analysis of 17 different items showed that 11 of the 17 items would be damaged by current surges on the power cords, while two would be damaged by current surges on external leads. This research showed that a field commander can expect approximately 65% of his electronic medical equipment to be damaged by a single nuclear detonation as far as 2,200 km away.

The Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine, Voluntary HIV Screening in South Africa

PubMed Central

Walensky, Rochelle P.; Wood, Robin; Fofana, Mariam O.; Martinson, Neil A.; Losina, Elena; April, Michael D.; Bassett, Ingrid V.; Morris, Bethany L.; Freedberg, Kenneth A.; Paltiel, A. David

2010-01-01

Background Although 900,000 HIV-infected South Africans receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), the majority of South Africans with HIV remain undiagnosed. Methods We use a published simulation model of HIV case detection and treatment to examine three HIV screening scenarios, in addition to current practice: 1) one-time; 2) every five years; and 3) annually. South African model input data include: 16.9% HIV prevalence, 1.3% annual incidence, 49% test acceptance rate, HIV testing costs of $6.49/patient, and a 47% linkage-to-care rate (including two sequential ART regimens) for identified cases. Outcomes include life expectancy, direct medical costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Results HIV screening one-time, every five years, and annually increase HIV-infected quality-adjusted life expectancy (mean age 33 years) from 180.6 months (current practice) to 184.9, 187.6 and 197.2 months. The incremental cost-effectiveness of one-time screening is dominated by screening every five years. Screening every five years and annually each have incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $1,570/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and $1,720/QALY. Screening annually is very cost-effective even in settings with the lowest incidence/prevalence, with test acceptance and linkage rates both as low as 20%, or when accounting for a stigma impact at least four-fold that of the base case. Conclusions In South Africa, annual voluntary HIV screening offers substantial clinical benefit and is very cost-effective, even with highly constrained access to care and treatment. PMID:21068674

Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

PubMed

Klima, Kelly; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris

2012-01-17

We investigate tropical cyclone wind and storm surge damage reduction for five areas along the Miami-Dade County coastline either by hardening buildings or by the hypothetical application of wind-wave pumps to modify storms. We calculate surge height and wind speed as functions of return period and sea surface temperature reduction by wind-wave pumps. We then estimate costs and economic losses with the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on property at risk. All areas experience more surge damages for short return periods, and more wind damages for long periods. The return period at which the dominating hazard component switches depends on location. We also calculate the seasonal expected fraction of control damage for different scenarios to reduce damages. Surge damages are best reduced through a surge barrier. Wind damages are best reduced by a portfolio of techniques that, assuming they work and are correctly deployed, include wind-wave pumps.

Quasi-Static 3-Point Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Bend Test and Analysis for Shuttle Orbiter Wing Leading Edge Impact Damage Thresholds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fasanella, Edwin L.; Sotiris, Kellas

2006-01-01

Static 3-point bend tests of Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) were conducted to failure to provide data for additional validation of an LS-DYNA RCC model suitable for predicting the threshold of impact damage to shuttle orbiter wing leading edges. LS-DYNA predictions correlated well with the average RCC failure load, and were good in matching the load vs. deflection. However, correlating the detectable damage using NDE methods with the cumulative damage parameter in LS-DYNA material model 58 was not readily achievable. The difficulty of finding internal RCC damage with NDE and the high sensitivity of the mat58 damage parameter to the load near failure made the task very challenging. In addition, damage mechanisms for RCC due to dynamic impact of debris such as foam and ice and damage mechanisms due to a static loading were, as expected, not equivalent.

Swimming against the tide: resilience of a riverine turtle to recurrent extreme environmental events

PubMed Central

Jergenson, Abigail M.; Miller, David A. W.; Neuman-Lee, Lorin A.; Warner, Daniel A.; Janzen, Fredric J.

2014-01-01

Extreme environmental events (EEEs) are likely to exert deleterious effects on populations. From 1996 to 2012 we studied the nesting dynamics of a riverine population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) that experienced seven years with significantly definable spring floods. We used capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate the relationships between more than 5 m and more than 6 m flood events and population parameters. Contrary to expectations, flooding was not associated with annual differences in survival, recruitment or annual population growth rates of the adult female segment of the population. These findings suggest that female C. picta exhibit resiliency to key EEE, which are expected to increase in frequency under climate change. PMID:24621555

Expected radiation damage of reverse-type APDs for the Astro-H mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, J.; Saito, T.; Yoshino, M.; Mizoma, H.; Nakamori, T.; Yatsu, Y.; Ishikawa, Y.; Matsunaga, Y.; Tajima, H.; Kokubun, M.; Edwards, P. G.

2012-06-01

Scheduled for launch in 2014, Astro-H is the sixth Japanese X-ray astronomy satellite mission. More than 60 silicon avalanche photodiodes (Si-APDs; hereafter APDs) will be used to read out BGO scintillators, which are implemented to generate a veto signal to reduce background contamination for the hard X-ray imager (HXI) and a soft gamma-ray detector (SGD). To date, however, APDs have rarely been used in space experiments. Moreover, strict environmental tests are necessary to guarantee APD performance for missions expected to extend beyond five years. The radiation hardness of APDs, as for most semiconductors, is particularly crucial, since radiation in the space environment is severe. In this paper, we present the results of radiation tests conducted on reverse-type APDs (provided by Hamamatsu Photonics) irradiated by gamma rays (60Co) and 150 MeV protons. We show that, even under the same 100 Gy dose, high energy protons can cause displacement (bulk) damage in the depletion region and possibly change the activation energy, whereas gamma-ray irradiation is less prone to cause damage, because ionization damage dominates only the surface region. We also present quantitative guidance on how to estimate APD noise deterioration over a range of temperatures and radiation doses. As a practical example, we discuss the expected degradation of the BGO energy threshold for the generation of veto signals, following several years of Astro-H operation in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), and directly compare it to experimental results obtained using a small BGO crystal.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-18

A construction trailer damaged by Hurricane Matthew is seen in the Launch Complex 39 area at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Assessments and repairs are in progress at various structures and facilities across the spaceport, part of the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-18

An ice dispenser damaged by Hurricane Matthew is seen in the Launch Complex 39 area at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Assessments and repairs are in progress at various structures and facilities across the spaceport, part of the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

High effectiveness of tailored flower strips in reducing pests and crop plant damage

PubMed Central

Tschumi, Matthias; Albrecht, Matthias; Entling, Martin H.; Jacot, Katja

2015-01-01

Providing key resources to animals may enhance both their biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. We examined the performance of annual flower strips targeted at the promotion of natural pest control in winter wheat. Flower strips were experimentally sown along 10 winter wheat fields across a gradient of landscape complexity (i.e. proportion non-crop area within 750 m around focal fields) and compared with 15 fields with wheat control strips. We found strong reductions in cereal leaf beetle (CLB) density (larvae: 40%; adults of the second generation: 53%) and plant damage caused by CLB (61%) in fields with flower strips compared with control fields. Natural enemies of CLB were strongly increased in flower strips and in part also in adjacent wheat fields. Flower strip effects on natural enemies, pests and crop damage were largely independent of landscape complexity (8–75% non-crop area). Our study demonstrates a high effectiveness of annual flower strips in promoting pest control, reducing CLB pest levels below the economic threshold. Hence, the studied flower strip offers a viable alternative to insecticides. This highlights the high potential of tailored agri-environment schemes to contribute to ecological intensification and may encourage more farmers to adopt such schemes. PMID:26311668

Laser induced damage in optical materials: ninth ASTM symposium.

PubMed

Glass, A J; Guenther, A H

1978-08-01

The Ninth Annual Symposium on Optical Materials for High Power Lasers (Boulder Damage Symposium) was held at the National Bureau of Standards in Boulder, Colorado, 4-6 October 1977. The symposium was under the auspices of ASTM Committee F-1, Subcommittee on Laser Standards, with the joint sponsorship of NBS, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, the Department of Energy (formerly ERDA), and the Office of Naval Research. About 185 scientists attended, including representatives of the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Australia, Union of South Africa, and the Soviet Union. The Symposium was divided into sessions concerning Laser Windows and Materials, Mirrors and Surfaces, Thin Films, Laser Glass and Glass Lasers, and Fundamental Mechanisms. As in previous years, the emphasis of the papers was directed toward new frontiers and new developments. Particular emphasis was given to materials for use from 10.6 microm to the uv region. Highlights included surface characterization, thin film-substrate boundaries, and advances in fundamental laser-matter threshold interactions and mechanisms. The scaling of damage thresholds with pulse duration, focal area, and wavelength were also discussed. Alexander J. Glass of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory and Arthur H. Guenther of the Air Force Weapons Laboratory were co-chairpersons. The Tenth Annual Symposium is scheduled for 12-14 September 1978 at the National Bureau of Standards, Boulder, Colorado.

Positive income shocks and accidental deaths among Cherokee Indians: a natural experiment

PubMed Central

Bruckner, Tim A; Brown, Ryan A; Margerison-Zilko, Claire

2011-01-01

Background Several studies in low-income populations report the somewhat counterintuitive finding that positive income gains adversely affect adult health. The literature posits that receipt of a large portion of annual income increases, in the short term, risk-taking behaviour and/or the consumption of health-damaging goods. This work implies the hypothesis that persons with an unexpected gain in income will exhibit an elevated risk of accidental death—the fifth leading cause of death in the USA. We test this hypothesis directly by capitalizing on a natural experiment in which Cherokee Indians in rural North Carolina received discrete lump sum payments from a new casino. Methods We applied Poisson regression to the monthly count of accidental deaths among Cherokee Indians over 204 months spanning 1990–2006. We controlled for temporal patterns in accidental deaths (e.g. seasonality and trend) as well as changes in population size. Results As hypothesized, the risk of accidental death rises above expected levels during months of the large casino payments (relative risk = 2.62; 95% confidence interval = 1.54–4.47). Exploratory analyses of ethnographic interviews and behavioural surveys support that increased vehicular travel and consumption of health-damaging goods may account for the rise in accident proneness. Conclusions Although long-term income gains may improve health in this population, our findings indicate that acute responses to large income gains, in the short term, increase risk-taking and accident proneness. We encourage further investigation of natural experiments to identify causal economic antecedents of population health. PMID:21527447

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlheim, M.D.; Belles, R.J.; Cletcher, J.W.

The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program involves the systematic review and evaluation of operational events that have occurred at light-water reactors to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core damage accident sequences. The results of the ASP Program are published in an annual report. The most recent report, which contains the precursors for 1995, is NUREG/CR-4674, Volume 23, Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1995, A Status Report, published in April 1997. This article provides an overview of the ASP review and evaluation process and a summary of the results for 1995.

46 CFR 2.10-101 - Annual vessel inspection fee.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... inspections, damage surveys, repair and modification inspections, change in vessel service inspections, permit... of international certificates. (d) Entitlement to inspection services for the current year remains... MODUs 4,695 Semi-submersible MODUs 8,050 Nautical School Vessels: Length not greater than 100 feet 835...

Performance of soil-aggregate-fabric systems in frost-susceptible roads, Linn County, Iowa.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-05-01

Thousands of miles of unimproved secondary roads in the upper midwest are annually plagued by frost action in their subgrades. Among the economic losses incurred are costs of repair and maintenance of the damaged roadway. Considerable loss of skid re...

Estimating the willingness to pay to protect coral reefs from potential damage caused by climate change--The evidence from Taiwan.

PubMed

Tseng, William Wei-Chun; Hsu, Shu-Han; Chen, Chi-Chung

2015-12-30

Coral reefs constitute the most biologically productive and diverse ecosystem, and provide various goods and services including those related to fisheries, marine tourism, coastal protection, and medicine. However, they are sensitive to climate change and rising temperatures. Taiwan is located in the central part of the world's distribution of coral reefs and has about one third of the coral species in the world. This study estimates the welfare losses associated with the potential damage to coral reefs in Taiwan caused by climate change. The contingent valuation method adopted includes a pre-survey, a face-to-face formal survey, and photo illustrations used to obtain reliable data. Average annual personal willingness to pay is found to be around US$35.75 resulting in a total annual willingness to pay of around US$0.43 billion. These high values demonstrate that coral reefs in Taiwan deserve to be well preserved, which would require a dedicated agency and ocean reserves.

Short-term effects of hurricane disturbance on food availability for migrant songbirds during autumn stopover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dobbs, R.C.; Barrow, W.C.; Jeske, C.W.; Dimiceli, J.; Michot, T.C.; Beck, J.W.

2009-01-01

Understanding the consequences of hurricanes on the food resources available to neotropical-nearctic migrant songbirds may provide important insight into the effects of hurricanes on migratory populations. During autumn migration 2006 we investigated the foraging ecology of two species of insectivorous migrants, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher (Polioptila caerulea) and Yellow Warbler (Dendroica petechia), and the availability of their foraging substrates and arthropod food resources in two coastal forests in western Louisiana, which were impacted to different degrees by Hurricane Rita in autumn 2005. Both migrant species attacked prey on bark substrates significantly more frequently, and on live foliage less frequently, in severely damaged forest than in lightly damaged forest (??2 tests, P < 0.05). However, both species attacked prey on bark less than expected given its availability (i.e., migrants avoided bark), and attacked prey on live foliage more than expected given its availability (i.e., migrants selected live foliage), in severely damaged forest (??2 tests, P < 0.03). Branch-clipping revealed that arthropod biomass on live hackberry (Celtis laevigata) and sweet acacia (Acacia farnesiana) branches was significantly higher in severely damaged forest than in lightly damaged forest (Mann-Whitney test, P < 0.01). However, because live foliage was significantly less available in severely damaged forest, overall food availability for migrants was lower in severely damaged forest than in lightly damaged forest. Migrant use of, and arthropod biomass on, bark and live-foliage substrates were thus dependent on the availability of those substrates, which differed between sites as a result of hurricane-related habitat disturbance. These results demonstrate that severe hurricane disturbance reduces food availability for insectivorous songbirds during migratory stopover by reducing the availability of preferred foraging substrates. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Predicting and adapting to the agricultural impacts of large-scale drought (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, J. W.; Glotter, M.; Best, N.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Smith, L. A.; Foster, I.

2013-12-01

The impact of drought on agriculture is an important socioeconomic consequence of climate extremes. Drought affects millions of people globally each year, causing an average of 6-8 billion of damage annually in the U.S. alone. The 1988 U.S. drought is estimated to have cost 79 billion in 2013 dollars, behind only Hurricane Katrina as the most costly U.S. climate-related disaster in recent decades. The 2012 U.S. drought is expected to cost about 30 billion. Droughts and heat waves accounted for 12% of all billion-dollar disaster events in the U.S. from 1980-2011 but almost one quarter of total monetary damages. To make matters worse, the frequency and severity of large-scale droughts in important agricultural regions is expected to increase as temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, leading some researchers to suggest that extended drought will harm more people than any other climate-related impact, specifically in the area of food security. Improved understanding and forecasts of drought would have both immediate and long-term implications for the global economy and food security. We show that mechanistic agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies, especially in seasons for which drought is the overriding factor. With more accurate observations and forecasts for temperature and precipitation, the accuracy and lead times of drought impact predictions could be improved further. We provide evidence that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production in recent decades, adaptations that could be applied elsewhere. This work suggests a new approach to modeling, monitoring, and forecasting drought impacts on agriculture. Simulated (dashed line), observed (solid line), and observed linear trend (dashed straight green line) of national average maize yield in tonnes per hectare from 1979-2012. The red dot indicates the USDA estimate for 2012 released in November 2012. We use shading to show the central 95% (lighter bands) and 75% (darker bands) of the resampled forecast error distribution. The June-August Palmer Z-Index (by US climate division) for b) 1988 and c) 2012.

A Time To Rethink.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thakur, Kiran; Aga, Niloufer

2002-01-01

Describes how staff of coeducational academy in Pune, India, use an annual, 2-day retreat to celebrate diversity and unity, share ideas, explore expectations and stereotypes, and articulate values. (PKP)

What Do Expectant Mothers Know about Neonatal Jaundice?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogunfowora, Olusoga B.; Adefuye, Peter O.; Fetuga, Musili B.

2006-01-01

Neonatal jaundice (NNJ) is a common disorder worldwide and many affected babies become brain-damaged due to delay in seeking medical consultation. In order to assess the awareness and knowledge of expectant mothers about NNJ, women who registered for antenatal care at a tertiary health facility in the South-western part of Nigeria were…

Expectancy Theory as a Predictor of Grade-Point Averages, Satisfaction, and Participation in the College Environment. ASHE 1983 Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lincoln, Yvonna S.; And Others

The ability of Vroom's expectancy motivation theory to predict student satisfaction with the college environment, student participation at school, and student academic performance was studied. Specific objectives of the study were as follows: to test the ability of Vroom's valence model to predict student satisfaction, to test the ability of…

Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 2. TimeSync — Tools for calibration and validation

Treesearch

Warren B. Cohen; Zhiqiang Yang; Robert Kennedy

2010-01-01

Availability of free, high quality Landsat data portends a new era in remote sensing change detection. Using dense (~annual) Landsat time series (LTS), we can now characterize vegetation change over large areas at an annual time step and at the spatial grain of anthropogenic disturbance. Additionally, we expect more accurate detection of subtle disturbances and...

Cancellation of the Annual Facility Grant Creates More Shortfalls for School Districts. BCTF Research Report. Section V. 2009-EF-02

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Margaret

2009-01-01

The Ministry of Education recently announced the cancellation of the Annual Facility Grant (AFG) for 2009-10, resulting in a loss of $110 million dollars in revenue to school districts. This decision comes after Boards of Education submitted their 2009-10 balanced budgets by June 30, based on expected revenues for the coming school year. Boards of…

Changing Expectations of College: The 47th Annual PDK/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes toward the Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phi Delta Kappan, 2015

2015-01-01

This installment reporting on the 47th Annual PDK/Gallup Poll of American's Attitudes Toward the Public Schools focuses on American's views of the value of a high school and a college education and the affordability of college. It is the first year the poll included enough respondents to be able to break out sentiments of specific demographic…

Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA

Treesearch

C. Alina Cansler; Donald. McKenzie

2014-01-01

Warmer and drier climate over the past few decades has brought larger fire sizes and increased annual area burned in forested ecosystems of western North America, and continued increases in annual area burned are expected due to climate change. As warming continues, fires may also increase in severity and produce larger contiguous patches of severely burned areas. We...

Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Hooidonk, R.; Maynard, J. A.; Planes, S.

2013-05-01

Climate-change impacts on coral reefs are expected to include temperature-induced spatially extensive bleaching events. Bleaching causes mortality when temperature stress persists but exposure to bleaching conditions is not expected to be spatially uniform at the regional or global scale. Here we show the first maps of global projections of bleaching conditions based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 (ref. ) models forced with the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For the three RCPs with larger CO2 emissions (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) the onset of annual bleaching conditions is associated with ~ 510ppm CO2 equivalent; the median year of all locations is 2040 for the fossil-fuel aggressive RCP 8.5. Spatial patterns in the onset of annual bleaching conditions are similar for each of the RCPs. For RCP 8.5, 26% of reef cells are projected to experience annual bleaching conditions more than 5 years later than the median. Some of these temporary refugia include the western Indian Ocean, Thailand, the southern Great Barrier Reef and central French Polynesia. A reduction in the growth of greenhouse-gas emissions corresponding to the difference between RCP 8.5 and 6.0 delays annual bleaching in ~ 23% of reef cells more than two decades, which might conceivably increase the potential for these reefs to cope with these changes.

Aircraft ground damage and the use of predictive models to estimate costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kromphardt, Benjamin D.

Aircraft are frequently involved in ground damage incidents, and repair costs are often accepted as part of doing business. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) estimates ground damage to cost operators $5-10 billion annually. Incident reports, documents from manufacturers or regulatory agencies, and other resources were examined to better understand the problem of ground damage in aviation. Major contributing factors were explained, and two versions of a computer-based model were developed to project costs and show what is possible. One objective was to determine if the models could match the FSF's estimate. Another objective was to better understand cost savings that could be realized by efforts to further mitigate the occurrence of ground incidents. Model effectiveness was limited by access to official data, and assumptions were used if data was not available. However, the models were determined to sufficiently estimate the costs of ground incidents.

Economic impacts of the ShakeOut scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, A.; Wei, D.; Wein, A.

2011-01-01

For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate $68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and $11 billion in related costs in addition to the $113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits of shock to the economy are property damage and lifeline service outages that affect the economy’s ability to produce. Property damage from fire is 50% greater than property damage from shaking because fire is more devastating. BI from water service disruption and fire each represent around one-third of total BI losses because of the long duration of service outage or long restoration and reconstruction periods. Total BI losses are 4.3% of annual gross output in the affected region, an impact far larger than most conventional economic recessions. These losses are still much lower than they potentially could be due to the resilience of the economy.

Leisure noise exposure: participation trends, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk.

PubMed

Beach, Elizabeth Francis; Gilliver, Megan; Williams, Warwick

2013-02-01

Leisure activities that emit high noise levels have the potential to expose participants to excessive noise exposure, which can result in hearing damage. This study investigated young people's participation in high-noise leisure activities and the relationship between their leisure noise exposure, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk. Participants completed an online survey relating to participation in selected high-noise leisure activities, symptoms of hearing damage, and beliefs about the risk posed by these activities. One thousand 18- to 35-year-old Australian adults completed the survey. Annual noise exposure from the five leisure activities ranged from 0-6.77 times the acceptable noise exposure, with nightclubs posing the greatest risk. Those who attended one noisy activity were more likely to attend others, in particular nightclubs, pubs, and live music events. Noise exposure was correlated with early warning signs of hearing damage and perceived risk of damage. Active young adults who engage in noisy activities are showing early signs of hearing damage. Furthermore, they perceive the risk associated with their activities. The challenge for researchers and hearing health practitioners is to convert self-perceived risk into positive hearing health behaviours for long-term hearing health.

DNA oxidative damage and life expectancy in houseflies.

PubMed Central

Agarwal, S; Sohal, R S

1994-01-01

The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between oxidative molecular damage and the aging process by determining whether such damage is associated with the rate of aging, using the adult housefly as the experimental organism. Because the somatic tissues in the housefly consist of long-lived postmitotic cells, it provides an excellent model system for studying cumulative age-related cellular alterations. Rate of aging in the housefly was manipulated by varying the rate of metabolism (physical activity). The concentration of 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (80HdG) was used as an indicator of DNA oxidation. Exposure of live flies to x-rays and hyperoxia elevated the level of 8OHdG. The level of 8OHdG in mitochondrial as well as total DNA increased with the age of flies. Mitochondrial DNA was 3 times more susceptible to age-related oxidative damage than nuclear DNA. A decrease in the level of physical activity of the flies was found to prolong the life-span and corresponding reduce the level of 8OHdG in both mitochondrial and total DNA. Under all conditions examined, mitochondrial DNA exhibited a higher level of oxidative damage than total DNA. The 8OHdG levels were found to be inversely associated with the life expectancy of houseflies. The pattern of age-associated accrural of 8OHdG was virtually identical to that of protein carbonyl content. Altoghether, results of this study support the hypothesis that oxidative molecular damage is a causal factor in senescence. PMID:7991627

Identification of grape cultivars and rootstocks with resistance to vine mealybug

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Vine mealybug, an insect pest capable of causing direct and indirect damage to grape vineyards, costs California growers millions of dollars annually. Insecticide sprays used to manage the pest provide inconsistent results, and sustainable methods of control are needed. A previous study identified a...

Conserved nematode signaling molecules elicit plant defenses and pathogen resistance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nematodes, which are ubiquitous in soil and are estimated to cause $100 B of agricultural damage annually, produce novel, highly conserved small sugar-based molecules call ascarosides. Ascarosides play critical roles in nematode development and behavior. We report here that plants recognize these un...

Comparison of five tillage systems in coastal plain soils for cotton production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil compaction management in the southeastern USA typically relies heavily on the practice of annual deep tillage. Strip tillage systems have shown considerable promise for reducing energy and labor requirements, equipment costs, soil erosion, and cotton plant damage from blowing sand. Replicated f...

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

A beach area is seen during a survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Helium vs. Proton Induced Displacement Damage in Electronic Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ringo, Sawnese; Barghouty, A. F.

2010-01-01

In this project, the specific effects of displacement damage due to the passage of protons and helium nuclei on some typical electronic materials will be evaluated and contrasted. As the electronic material absorbs the energetic proton and helium momentum, degradation of performance occurs, eventually leading to overall failure. Helium nuclei traveling at the same speed as protons are expected to impart more to the material displacement damage; due to the larger mass, and thus momentum, of helium nuclei compared to protons. Damage due to displacement of atoms in their crystalline structure can change the physical properties and hence performance of the electronic materials.

Geography of blizzards in the conterminous United States, 1959--2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Robert Michael

2001-07-01

Many individuals think of tornadoes and hurricanes when considering weather-related storms. However, winter storms and blizzards have potential impacts on millions of people and effects on the social landscape such as fatalities, injuries, and economic consequences. Additionally, these storms can last from a few hours to over a week. This study established a climatology of blizzards in the conterminous United States from 1959-2000 utilizing data from Storm Data to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of blizzards. The annual probability of a blizzard on a county level was calculated to give the empirical probability of having a blizzard in any given winter season. Additionally, the number of blizzards were compared to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by running a linear regression to check for correlation. Finally, the social impacts of blizzards studied included the population affected, fatalities, injuries, property damage, crop damage, and federal disaster declarations. Maps were produced utilizing MapInfo and ArcView Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to summarize regional differences and temporal trends. There were 438 blizzards analyzed in the study with an annual mean of 10.7 blizzards per winter season with the majority of storms occurring in the northern Plains states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and western Minnesota. Time series analysis indicated an increase in the number of blizzards over the 41-year period while there was no linear trend of the area affected by blizzards. Annual probabilities of a blizzard were as high as 76% for Cavalier, Rolette, Steele, Towner, and Traill Counties in North Dakota. The ENSO teleconnection and the number of blizzards on the national scale suggested a negative correlation with fewer blizzards during El Nino episodes. Social impacts indicated blizzards affected 26.3 million per season with 16 fatalities and 49 injuries per season reported to Storm Data . The total population affected each winter did not show a linear trend. An average winter reported 551 million in property damage and 26 million in crop damage according to Storm Data. The number of declared disasters or emergencies due to blizzards has been increasing, especially in the 1990s.

Modifications of natural hazard impacts and hydrological extremes in previous centuries (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, Olga; Pasqua, Aurora Angela; Polemio, Maurizio

2013-04-01

The present work is based on the use of a wide historical database concerning floods and landslides which occurred in Calabria, a region of southern Italy, since the seventeenth century, and including more than 11,000 records. This database has been built by collecting data coming from different information sources as newspapers, archives of regional and national agencies, scientific and technical reports, on-site surveys reports and information collected by interviewing both people involved and local administrators. This database has been continuously updated by both the results of local historical research and data coming from the daily survey of regional newspapers. Similarly, a wide archive of rainfall data for the same period and the same region has been implemented. In this work, basing on the abovementioned archives, a comparative analysis of floods that occurred in a regional sector over a long period and the climatic data characterizing the same period has been carried out, focusing on the climate trend and aiming to investigate the potential effect of climate variation on the damaging floods trend. The aim was to assess whether the frequency of floods is changing and, if so, whether these changes can be related to either rainfall and/or anthropogenic modifications. In order to assess anthropogenic modifications, the evolution of urbanized sectors of the study area in the last centuries has been reenacted by mean of comparisons, in GIS environment, of historical maps of different epochs. The annual variability of rainfall was discussed using an annual index. Short duration-high intensity rainfalls were characterized considering time series of annual maxima of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours and daily rainfall. The analysis indicates that, despite a rainfall trend favorable towards a reduction in flood occurrence, floods damage has not decreased. This seems to be mainly the effect of mismanagement of land use modifications. Moreover, the long historical series analyzed allowed us to individuate both the most frequently damaged elements and the frequently damaged geographical sectors of the study area, even with a further in depth on the cases involving people in urbanized sectors.

Expected Net Benefit of Vaccinating Rangeland Sheep against Bluetongue Virus Using a Modified-Live versus Killed Virus Vaccine

PubMed Central

Munsick, Tristram R.; Peck, Dannele E.; Ritten, John P.; Jones, Randall; Jones, Michelle; Miller, Myrna M.

2017-01-01

Recurring outbreaks of bluetongue virus in domestic sheep of the US Intermountain West have prompted questions about the economic benefits and costs of vaccinating individual flocks against bluetongue (BT) disease. We estimate the cost of a BT outbreak on a representative rangeland sheep operation in the Big Horn Basin of the state of Wyoming using enterprise budgets and stochastic simulation. The latter accounts for variability in disease severity and lamb price, as well as uncertainty about when an outbreak will occur. We then estimate the cost of purchasing and administering a BT vaccine. Finally, we calculate expected annual net benefit of vaccinating under various outbreak intervals. Expected annual net benefit is calculated for both a killed virus (KV) vaccine and modified-live virus vaccine, using an observed price of $0.32 per dose for modified-live and an estimated price of $1.20 per dose for KV. The modified-live vaccine’s expected annual net benefit has a 100% chance of being positive for an outbreak interval of 5, 10, or 20 years, and a 77% chance of being positive for a 50-year interval. The KV vaccine’s expected annual net benefit has a 97% chance of being positive for a 5-year outbreak interval, and a 42% chance of being positive for a 10-year interval. A KV vaccine is, therefore, unlikely to be economically attractive to producers in areas exposed less frequently to BT disease. A modified-live vaccine, however, requires rigorous authorization before legal use can occur in Wyoming. To date, no company has requested to manufacture a modified-live vaccine for commercial use in Wyoming. The KV vaccine poses less risk to sheep reproduction and less risk of unintentional spread, both of which facilitate approval for commercial production. Yet, our results show an economically consequential tradeoff between a KV vaccine’s relative safety and higher cost. Unless the purchase price is reduced below our assumed $1.20 per dose, producer adoption of a KV vaccine for BT is likely to be low in the study area. This tradeoff between cost and safety should be considered when policymakers regulate commercial use of the two vaccine types. PMID:29075635

Effects of acid deposition on terrestrial ecosystems and their rehabilitation strategies in China.

PubMed

Feng, Zong-wei; Miao, Hong; Zhang, Fu-zhu; Huang, Yi-zong

2002-04-01

South China has become the third largest region associated with acid deposition following Europe and North America, the area subject to damage by acid deposition increased from 1.75 million km2 in 1985 to 2.8 million km2 in 1993. Acid deposition has caused serious damage to ecosystem. Combined pollution of acid rain and SO2 showed the obvious multiple effects on crops. Vegetable was more sensitive to acid deposition than foodstuff crops. Annual economic loss of crops due to acid deposition damage in eleven provinces of south China was 4.26 billion RMB Yuan. Acid deposition caused serious damage to forest. Annual economic loss of wood volume was about 1.8 billion RMB Yuan and forest ecological benefit loss 16.2 billion in eleven provinces of south China. Acid deposition in south China was typical "sulfuric acid type". According to the thoughts of sustainable development, some strategies were brought forward as follows: (1) enhancing environmental management, specifying acid-controlling region, controlling and abating the total emission amount of SO2; (2) selecting practical energy technologies of clean coal, for example, cleansing and selecting coal, sulfur-fixed-type industrial briqutting, abating sulfur from waste gas and so on; (3) developing other energy sources to replace coal, including water electricity, atomic energy and the new energy such as solar energy, wind energy and so on; (4) in acid deposition region of south China, selecting acid-resistant type of crop and tree to decrease agricultural losses, planting more green fertilizer crops, using organic fertilizers and liming, in order to improve buffer capacities of soil.

Development of monitoring method of coffee leaf rust fungus (Hemileia vastatrix) infected area using satellite remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsuhama, N.; Ikeda, K.; Imai, M.; Watanabe, K.; Marpaung, F.; Yoshii, T.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

2016-12-01

Since 2008, coffee leaf rust fungus (Hemileia vastatrix) has expanded its infection in Latin America, and early trimming and burning infected trees have been only effective countermeasures to prevent spreading infection. Although some researchers reported a case about the monitoring of coffee leaf rust using satellite remote sensing in 1970s, the spatial resolution was unsatisfied, and therefore, further technological development has been required. The purpose of this research is to develop effective method of discovering coffee leaf rust infected areas using satellite remote sensing. Annual changes of vegetation indices, i.e. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (MSIPI), around Cuchumatanes Mountains, Republic of Guatemala, were analyzed by Landsat 7 images. Study fields in the research were limited by the coffee farm areas based on a previous paper about on site surveys in different damage areas. As the result of the analysis, the annual change of NDVI at the coffee farm areas with damages tended to be lower than those without damages. Moreover, the decline of NDVI appear from 2008 before the damage was reported. On the other hand, the change of MSIPI had no significant difference. NDVI and MSIPI are mainly related to the amount of chlorophyll and carotenoid in the leaves respectively. This means that the infected coffee leaves turned yellow without defoliation. This situation well matches the symptom of coffee leaf rust. The research concluded that the property of infected leaves turning yellow is effective to monitoring of infection areas by satellite remote sensing.

10 CFR 440.14 - State plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... which are expected to be weatherized annually during the program year; (2) The climatic conditions..., including: (i) An analysis of the existence and effectiveness of any weatherization project being carried...

Improving Flood Damage Assessment Models in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amadio, M.; Mysiak, J.; Carrera, L.; Koks, E.

2015-12-01

The use of Stage-Damage Curve (SDC) models is prevalent in ex-ante assessments of flood risk. To assess the potential damage of a flood event, SDCs describe a relation between water depth and the associated potential economic damage over land use. This relation is normally developed and calibrated through site-specific analysis based on ex-post damage observations. In some cases (e.g. Italy) SDCs are transferred from other countries, undermining the accuracy and reliability of simulation results. Against this background, we developed a refined SDC model for Northern Italy, underpinned by damage compensation records from a recent flood event. Our analysis considers both damage to physical assets and production losses from business interruptions. While the first is calculated based on land use information, production losses are measured through the spatial distribution of Gross Value Added (GVA). An additional component of the model assesses crop-specific agricultural losses as a function of flood seasonality. Our results show an overestimation of asset damage from non-calibrated SDC values up to a factor of 4.5 for tested land use categories. Furthermore, we estimate that production losses amount to around 6 per cent of the annual GVA. Also, maximum yield losses are less than a half of the amount predicted by the standard SDC methods.

Surveillance for cancer recurrence in long-term young breast cancer survivors randomly selected from a statewide cancer registry.

PubMed

Jones, Tarsha; Duquette, Debra; Underhill, Meghan; Ming, Chang; Mendelsohn-Victor, Kari E; Anderson, Beth; Milliron, Kara J; Copeland, Glenn; Janz, Nancy K; Northouse, Laurel L; Duffy, Sonia M; Merajver, Sofia D; Katapodi, Maria C

2018-05-01

This study examined clinical breast exam (CBE) and mammography surveillance in long-term young breast cancer survivors (YBCS) and identified barriers and facilitators to cancer surveillance practices. Data collected with a self-administered survey from a statewide, randomly selected sample of YBCS diagnosed with invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ younger than 45 years old, stratified by race (Black vs. White/Other). Multivariate logistic regression models identified predictors of annual CBEs and mammograms. Among 859 YBCS (n = 340 Black; n = 519 White/Other; mean age = 51.0 ± 5.9; diagnosed 11.0 ± 4.0 years ago), the majority (> 85%) reported an annual CBE and a mammogram. Black YBCS in the study were more likely to report lower rates of annual mammography and more barriers accessing care compared to White/Other YBCS. Having a routine source of care, confidence to use healthcare services, perceived expectations from family members and healthcare providers to engage in cancer surveillance, and motivation to comply with these expectations were significant predictors of having annual CBEs and annual mammograms. Cost-related lack of access to care was a significant barrier to annual mammograms. Routine source of post-treatment care facilitated breast cancer surveillance above national average rates. Persistent disparities regarding access to mammography surveillance were identified for Black YBCS, primarily due to lack of access to routine source of care and high out-of-pocket costs. Public health action targeting cancer surveillance in YBCS should ensure routine source of post-treatment care and address cost-related barriers. Clinical Trials Registration Number: NCT01612338.

Flood Risk Due to Hurricane Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivera, Francisco; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Irish, Jennifer

2015-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the expected economic losses caused by hurricane inundation. We used surge response functions, which are physics-based dimensionless scaling laws that give surge elevation as a function of the hurricane's parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location) at specified locations along the coast. These locations were close enough to avoid significant changes in surge elevations between consecutive points, and distant enough to minimize calculations. The probability of occurrence of a surge elevation value at a given location was estimated using a joint probability distribution of the hurricane parameters. The surge elevation, at the shoreline, was assumed to project horizontally inland within a polygon of influence. Individual parcel damage was calculated based on flood water depth and damage vs. depth curves available for different building types from the HAZUS computer application developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Parcel data, including property value and building type, were obtained from the county appraisal district offices. The expected economic losses were calculated as the sum of the products of the estimated parcel damages and their probability of occurrence for the different storms considered. Anticipated changes for future climate scenarios were considered by accounting for projected hurricane intensification, as indicated by sea surface temperature rise, and sea level rise, which modify the probability distribution of hurricane central pressure and change the baseline of the damage calculation, respectively. Maps of expected economic losses have been developed for Corpus Christi in Texas, Gulfport in Mississippi and Panama City in Florida. Specifically, for Port Aransas, in the Corpus Christi area, it was found that the expected economic losses were in the range of 1% to 4% of the property value for current climate conditions, of 1% to 8% for the 2030's and of 1% to 14% for the 2080's.

Developing building-damage scales for lahars: application to Merapi volcano, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Susanna F.; Phillips, Jeremy C.; Price, Rebecca; Feloy, Kate; Baxter, Peter J.; Hadmoko, Danang Sri; de Bélizal, Edouard

2015-09-01

Lahar damage to buildings can include burial by sediment and/or failure of walls, infiltration into the building and subsequent damage to contents. The extent to which a building is damaged will be dictated by the dynamic characteristics of the lahar, i.e. the velocity, depth, sediment concentration and grain size, as well as the structural characteristics and setting of the building in question. The focus of this paper is on quantifying how buildings may respond to impact by lahar. We consider the potential for lahar damage to buildings on Merapi volcano, Indonesia, as a result of the voluminous deposits produced during the large (VEI 4) eruption in 2010. A building-damage scale has been developed that categorises likely lahar damage levels and, through theoretical calculations of expected building resistance to impact, approximate ranges of impact pressures. We found that most weak masonry buildings on Merapi would be destroyed by dilute lahars with relatively low velocities (ca. 3 m/s) and pressures (ca. 5 kPa); however, the majority of stronger rubble stone buildings may be expected to withstand higher velocities (to 6 m/s) and pressures (to 20 kPa). We applied this preliminary damage scale to a large lahar in the Putih River on 9 January 2011, which inundated and caused extensive building damage in the village of Gempol, 16 km southwest of Merapi. The scale was applied remotely through the use of public satellite images and through field studies to categorise damage and estimate impact pressures and velocities within the village. Results were compared with those calculated independently from Manning's calculations for flow velocity and depth within Gempol village using an estimate of flow velocity at one upstream site as input. The results of this calculation showed reasonable agreement with an average channel velocity derived from travel time observations. The calculated distribution of flow velocities across the area of damaged buildings was consistent with building damage as classified by the new damage scale. The complementary results, even given the basic nature of the tools and data, suggest that the damage scale provides a valid representation of the failure mode that is consistent with estimates of the flow conditions. The use of open-source simplified tools and data in producing these consistent findings is very promising.

Root transformation of Glycine max with responsive promoters to nematode infection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The soybean cyst nematode (SCN; Heterodera glycines), an obligate parasite of plants, is the most damaging pathogen of soybean, causing $469 to $818 million in soybean yield losses annually in the United States. However, there are no soybean cultivars available that are resistant to all SCN populati...

Medusahead invasion along unimproved roads, animal trails, and random transects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Medusahead, an exotic annual grass, is rapidly spreading and causing ecological damage across the western United States. It is critical that land managers prioritize where they direct treatment and monitoring efforts due to the vast areas this exotic plant occupies and the limited amount of resourc...

24 CFR 201.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Association, and which is designed to reduce the risk of death, personal injury, or property damage resulting... or advance, plus interest, if any, at a stated annual rate over time, with the borrower's obligation... details the wholesale (base) prices at the factory for specific models or series of manufactured homes and...

49 CFR 579.23 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more motorcycles annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports which involve the systems and components..., consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports, respectively, that involves the systems or components or fire indicated by the code. If an underlying property damage claim, consumer complaint...

49 CFR 579.23 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more motorcycles annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports which involve the systems and components..., consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports, respectively, that involves the systems or components or fire indicated by the code. If an underlying property damage claim, consumer complaint...

49 CFR 579.23 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more motorcycles annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports which involve the systems and components..., consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports, respectively, that involves the systems or components or fire indicated by the code. If an underlying property damage claim, consumer complaint...

Hurricane shuts down gulf activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koen, A.D.

1992-08-31

This paper reports that producers in the Gulf of Mexico and plant operators in South Louisiana last week were checking for damage wrought by Hurricane Andrew. In its wake Andrew left evacuated rigs and platforms in the gulf and shuttered plants across a wide swath of the Gulf Coast. Operations were beginning to return to normal late last week. Not all gulf operators, especially in the central gulf, expected to return to offshore facilities. And even producers able to book helicopters did not expect to be able to fully assess damage to all offshore installations before the weekend. MMS officialsmore » in Washington estimated that 37,500 offshore workers were evacuated from 700 oil and gas installations on the gulf's Outer Continental Shelf. Gulf oil and gas wells account for about 800,000 b/d of oil and one fourth of total U.S. gas production. MMS was awaiting an assessment of hurricane damage before estimating how soon and how much gulf oil and gas production would be restored.« less

The Genome Biology of Effector Gene Evolution in Filamentous Plant Pathogens.

PubMed

Sánchez-Vallet, Andrea; Fouché, Simone; Fudal, Isabelle; Hartmann, Fanny E; Soyer, Jessica L; Tellier, Aurélien; Croll, Daniel

2018-05-16

Filamentous pathogens, including fungi and oomycetes, pose major threats to global food security. Crop pathogens cause damage by secreting effectors that manipulate the host to the pathogen's advantage. Genes encoding such effectors are among the most rapidly evolving genes in pathogen genomes. Here, we review how the major characteristics of the emergence, function, and regulation of effector genes are tightly linked to the genomic compartments where these genes are located in pathogen genomes. The presence of repetitive elements in these compartments is associated with elevated rates of point mutations and sequence rearrangements with a major impact on effector diversification. The expression of many effectors converges on an epigenetic control mediated by the presence of repetitive elements. Population genomics analyses showed that rapidly evolving pathogens show high rates of turnover at effector loci and display a mosaic in effector presence-absence polymorphism among strains. We conclude that effective pathogen containment strategies require a thorough understanding of the effector genome biology and the pathogen's potential for rapid adaptation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Phytopathology Volume 56 is August 25, 2018. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Morphological studies of laser-induced photoacoustic damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flotte, Thomas J.; Yashima, Yutaka; Watanabe, Shinichi; McAuliffe, Daniel J., Sr.; Jacques, Steven L.

1990-06-01

Argon-fluoride excimer laser ablation of stratum comeum causes deeper tissue damage than expected for thermal or photochemical mechanisms, suggesting thatphotoacoustic waves have arole in tissue damage. Laserirradiation (193 nm, 14 ns pulses, 1-2 Hz) attworadiantexposures, 60 and 160 mJ/cm2perpulse was usedto ablate the stratumcomeumofskin. Light and electron microscopy ofimmediate biopsies demonstrated damage to fibroblasts as deep as 88 and 220 jun, respectively, below the ablation site. Ablation throughwaterwas usedtoinertially confine the ablation zone. Partial ablationofs.c. through airproducedno damage, whereas partial ablation through water damaged skin to amean depth of 1 14.5 8.8( Full thickness ablation of s.c. through air and water produced damage zones measuring 192.2 16.2 and 293.0 71.6 rim, respectively (p <0.05). The increased depth ofdamage in the presence ofinertial confinementprovided by the layer of water strongly supports a photoacoustic mechanism ofdamage. The depths ofdamage for thelarge spot, line, and small spots were 43 1 164 urn, 269 96xni, andno damage. The spot size dependence ofthedepthofdamage is consistentwiththe geometric attenuation one would expect to be present from a pressure wave related phenomena. Sequential biopsies were taken over a 7 day period for light and transmission electron microscopy. At 24 hours, there was necrosis of the epidermis and papillary dermis subjacent to the ablation site, with neutrophils surrounding and demarcating the affected area. The necrotic zone sloughedby48 hours. Thereepithelializationwas completeby7 days. The sequenceofrepairis similartoknife wound healing which we have previously studied, and is analogous to other wound healing processes. We have used an experimental model of ArF excimer laser ablation of stratum corneum to investigate laser-induced photoacoustic damage. The evidence for the injury being due to pressure transients is indirectbutcompelling. Whether these pressuretransients are acoustic transients orshockwaves has notbeendetermined, although itis ourprejudicethatshockwaves are the predominant force under these conditions. It is important to consider the possible effects of pressure transients in evaluating laser-tissue interactions, particularly when using short pulse, high peak power lasers.

Effects of sales promotion on smoking among U.S. ninth graders.

PubMed

Redmond, W H

1999-03-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the association between tobacco marketing efforts and daily cigarette smoking by adolescents. This was a longitudinal study of uptake of smoking on a daily basis with smoking data from the Monitoring the Future project. Diffusion modeling was used to generate expected rates of daily smoking initiation, which were compared with actual rates. Study data were from a national survey, administered annually from 1978 through 1995. Between 4,416 and 6,099 high school seniors participated per year, for a total of 94,652. The main outcome measure was a deviation score based on expected rates from diffusion modeling vs actual rates of initiation of daily use of cigarettes by ninth graders. Annual data on cigarette marketing expenditures were reported by the Federal Trade Commission. The deviation scores of expected vs actual rates of smoking initiation for ninth graders were correlated with annual changes in marketing expenditures. The correlation between sales promotion expenditures and the deviation score in daily smoking initiation was large (r = 0. 769) and statistically significant (P = 0.009) in the 1983-1992 period. Correlations between sales promotion and smoking initiation were not statistically significant in 1978-1982. Correlations between advertising expenditures and smoking initiation were not significant in either period. In years of high promotional expenditures, the rate of daily smoking initiation among ninth graders was higher than expected from diffusion model predictions. Large promotional pushes by cigarette marketers in the 1980s and 1990s appear to be linked with increased levels of daily smoking initiation among ninth graders. Copyright 1999 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

Meteoroids and Meteor Storms: A Threat to Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, B. Jeffrey

1999-01-01

Robust system design is the best protection against meteoroid damage. Impacts by small meteoroids are common on satellite surfaces, but impacts by meteoroids large enough to damage well designed systems are very rare. Estimating the threat from the normal meteoroid environment is difficult. Estimates for the occasional "storm" are even more uncertain. Common sense precautions are in order for the 1999 Leonids, but wide-spread catastrophic damage is highly unlikely. Strong Leonid showers are also expected in 2000 and 2001, but these pose much less threat than 1999.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-18

A construction trailer damaged by Hurricane Matthew is seen in front of the Mobile Launcher within the Launch Complex 39 area at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Assessments and repairs are in progress at various structures and facilities across the spaceport, part of the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-18

Siding damage caused by Hurricane Matthew is seen inside a support building in the Launch Complex 39 area at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Assessments and repairs are in progress at various structures and facilities across the spaceport, part of the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-18

Ceiling and furniture damage caused by Hurricane Matthew is seen inside a support building in the Launch Complex 39 area at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Assessments and repairs are in progress at various structures and facilities across the spaceport, part of the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gecow, Andrzej

On the way to simulating adaptive evolution of complex system describing a living object or human developed project, a fitness should be defined on node states or network external outputs. Feedbacks lead to circular attractors of these states or outputs which make it difficult to define a fitness. The main statistical effects of adaptive condition are the result of small change tendency and to appear, they only need a statistically correct size of damage initiated by evolutionary change of system. This observation allows to cut loops of feedbacks and in effect to obtain a particular statistically correct state instead ofmore » a long circular attractor which in the quenched model is expected for chaotic network with feedback. Defining fitness on such states is simple. We calculate only damaged nodes and only once. Such an algorithm is optimal for investigation of damage spreading i.e. statistical connections of structural parameters of initial change with the size of effected damage. It is a reversed-annealed method--function and states (signals) may be randomly substituted but connections are important and are preserved. The small damages important for adaptive evolution are correctly depicted in comparison to Derrida annealed approximation which expects equilibrium levels for large networks. The algorithm indicates these levels correctly. The relevant program in Pascal, which executes the algorithm for a wide range of parameters, can be obtained from the author.« less

Optimal Inspection of Imports to Prevent Invasive Pest Introduction.

PubMed

Chen, Cuicui; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S; Haight, Robert G

2018-03-01

The United States imports more than 1 billion live plants annually-an important and growing pathway for introduction of damaging nonnative invertebrates and pathogens. Inspection of imports is one safeguard for reducing pest introductions, but capacity constraints limit inspection effort. We develop an optimal sampling strategy to minimize the costs of pest introductions from trade by posing inspection as an acceptance sampling problem that incorporates key features of the decision context, including (i) simultaneous inspection of many heterogeneous lots, (ii) a lot-specific sampling effort, (iii) a budget constraint that limits total inspection effort, (iv) inspection error, and (v) an objective of minimizing cost from accepted defective units. We derive a formula for expected number of accepted infested units (expected slippage) given lot size, sample size, infestation rate, and detection rate, and we formulate and analyze the inspector's optimization problem of allocating a sampling budget among incoming lots to minimize the cost of slippage. We conduct an empirical analysis of live plant inspection, including estimation of plant infestation rates from historical data, and find that inspections optimally target the largest lots with the highest plant infestation rates, leaving some lots unsampled. We also consider that USDA-APHIS, which administers inspections, may want to continue inspecting all lots at a baseline level; we find that allocating any additional capacity, beyond a comprehensive baseline inspection, to the largest lots with the highest infestation rates allows inspectors to meet the dual goals of minimizing the costs of slippage and maintaining baseline sampling without substantial compromise. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Spacecraft Risk Posed by the 2016 Perseid Outburst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooke, W. J.; Moser, D. E.; Moorhead, A. V.

2016-01-01

The Perseids are one of the more prolific annual showers, known for high rates and for producing bright meteors. Outbursts of this shower have been noted in the 1860s, the early 1990s, 2004, and 2009, with the 1993 outburst being especially active (peak ZHR above 300). The 1993 Perseids also affected the space-faring nations, as the launch of the STS-51 mission was delayed by NASA until after the shower maximum due to an inability to predict the shower intensity, and the ESA telecommunications satellite Olympus suffered a mission-ending anomaly attributed to a static discharge caused by a Perseid impact [1]. Rates were again high (peak ZHR around 200) in 2009, when the NASA/USGS imaging satellite Landsat-5 experienced a gyro anomaly just before the shower peak; however in this case, the satellite was recovered and normal operations resumed one week later [2]. It is interesting to note that both spacecraft anomalies were not what is typically expected from meteoroid strikes, i.e., physical damage or an attitude displacement due to transfer of momentum. It would appear that the very fast Perseids (59 km s(sup -1) have a marked ability to produce plasma upon impact, which can then serve as a conductive path for discharge currents. The shower is expected to outburst again in 2016, and we present the results from the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model [4], which predicts enhanced activity on a level similar to that of 2009 as the Earth passes through several debris trails on the night of August 11-12 (UT). We then compare our results to those of other modelers.

An estimated cost of lost climate regulation services caused by thawing of the Arctic cryosphere.

PubMed

Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goodstein, Eban S; Huntington, Henry P

2013-12-01

Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.

Disentangling factors that control the vulnerability of forests to catastrophic wind damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dracup, E.; Taylor, A.; MacLean, D.; Boulanger, Y.

2017-12-01

Wind is an important driver of forest dynamics along North America's north-eastern coastal forests, but also damages many commercially managed forests which society relies as an important source of wood fiber. Although the influence of wind on north-eastern forests is well recognized, knowledge of factors predisposing trees to wind damage is less known, especially in the context of large, powerful wind storm events. This is of particular concern as climate change is expected to alter the frequency and severity of strong wind storms affecting this region. On 29 September 2003, Hurricane Juan made landfall over Nova Scotia, Canada as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 158 km/h, and gusts of up to 185 km/h. Hurricane Juan variously damaged a swath of over 600,000 ha of forest. The damaged forest area was surveyed using aerial photography and LandSAT imagery and categorized according to level of wind damage sustained (none, low, moderate, severe) at a resolution of 15 x 15 m square cells. We used Random Forest to analyze and compare level of wind damage in each cell with a myriad of abiotic (exposure, depth to water table, soil composition, etc.) and biotic (tree species composition, canopy closure, canopy height, etc.) factors known or expected to predispose trees to windthrow. From our analysis, we identified topographic exposure, precipitation, and maximum gust speed as the top predictors of windthrow during Hurricane Juan. To our surprise, forest stand factors, such as tree species composition and height, had minimal effects on level of windthrow. These results can be used to construct predictive risk maps which can help society to assess the vulnerability of forests to future wind storm events.

Variations in total ozone column and biologically effective solar UV exposure doses in Bologna, Italy during the period 2005-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petkov, Boyan; Vitale, Vito; Tomasi, Claudio; Mazzola, Mauro; Lanconelli, Christian; Lupi, Angelo; Busetto, Maurizio

2014-01-01

Variations in total ozone column and sun exposures able to cause erythema and damage the DNA molecules were observed by the narrow-band filter radiometer UV-RAD in Bologna, Italy from 2005 to 2010. The ozone columns determined from the UV-RAD measurements were found to be close to those provided by the satellite Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) showing an average discrepancy of 1 % with standard deviation of ± 6 %. Analysis of the data highlights a well-marked annual cycle of the ozone column variations while the oscillations with periods of 8, 18 and 34 months present much smaller amplitudes. The influence of the frequency of solar irradiance measurements on the accuracy of the evaluated daily exposure dose has been studied and it was found that time intervals no longer than 5-10 min between the measurements of erythema and DNA damage effective UV irradiances provide a satisfactory assessment of the corresponding daily exposures. The latter do not present significant year-to-year variations for the period under study, while their annual distributions show slight changes likely due to the specific cloud cover and ozone column variability for different years. The annual erythemal exposure dose for 2007-2010 varied between 603.7 and 638.1 kJ m-2, while the corresponding sun exposure affecting DNA changed from 6.38 to 7.91 kJ m-2.

Low-Dose Chest Computed Tomography for Lung Cancer Screening Among Hodgkin Lymphoma Survivors: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wattson, Daniel A., E-mail: dwattson@partners.org; Hunink, M.G. Myriam; DiPiro, Pamela J.

2014-10-01

Purpose: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors face an increased risk of treatment-related lung cancer. Screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) may allow detection of early stage, resectable cancers. We developed a Markov decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness model to estimate the merits of annual LDCT screening among HL survivors. Methods and Materials: Population databases and HL-specific literature informed key model parameters, including lung cancer rates and stage distribution, cause-specific survival estimates, and utilities. Relative risks accounted for radiation therapy (RT) technique, smoking status (>10 pack-years or current smokers vs not), age at HL diagnosis, time from HL treatment, and excess radiation from LDCTs.more » LDCT assumptions, including expected stage-shift, false-positive rates, and likely additional workup were derived from the National Lung Screening Trial and preliminary results from an internal phase 2 protocol that performed annual LDCTs in 53 HL survivors. We assumed a 3% discount rate and a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Results: Annual LDCT screening was cost effective for all smokers. A male smoker treated with mantle RT at age 25 achieved maximum QALYs by initiating screening 12 years post-HL, with a life expectancy benefit of 2.1 months and an incremental cost of $34,841/QALY. Among nonsmokers, annual screening produced a QALY benefit in some cases, but the incremental cost was not below the WTP threshold for any patient subsets. As age at HL diagnosis increased, earlier initiation of screening improved outcomes. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates and expected stage-shift from screening. Conclusions: HL survivors are an important high-risk population that may benefit from screening, especially those treated in the past with large radiation fields including mantle or involved-field RT. Screening may be cost effective for all smokers but possibly not for nonsmokers despite a small life expectancy benefit.« less

Annual Report on the State of the DOE National Laboratories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2017-01-01

This first Annual Report to Congress on the State of the DOE National Laboratories provides a comprehensive overview of the Lab system, covering S&T programs, management and strategic planning. The Department committed to prepare this report in response to recommendations from the Congressionally mandated Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories (CRENEL) that the Department should better communicate the value that the Laboratories provide to the Nation. We expect that future annual reports will be much more compact, building on the extensive description of the Laboratories and of the governance structures that are part of this firstmore » report.« less

An assessment of the risk arising from electrical effects associated with the release of carbon fibers from general aviation aircraft fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, D.; Fiksel, J.

1980-01-01

A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through 1993 due to potential electric effects of carbon fibers released from United States general aviation aircraft in the aftermath of a fire. Of the expected 354 annual general aviation aircraft accidents with fire projected for 1993, approximately 88 could involve carbon fibers. The average annual loss was estimated to be about $250 (1977 dollars) and the likelihood of exceeding $107,000 (1977 dollars) in annual loss in any one year was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand.

Plant-herbivore interactions along elevational gradient: Comparison of field and common garden data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rokaya, Maan Bahadur; Dostálek, Tomáš; Münzbergová, Zuzana

2016-11-01

In response to climate change, various organisms tend to migrate to higher elevations and latitudes. Unequal migration rates of plants and animals are expected to result in changes in the type and intensity of their interactions such as plant-herbivore interactions. In the present study, we studied the extent of herbivore damage in Salvia nubicola along an elevational gradient in Manang, central Nepal. A common garden experiment was also carried out by sowing seeds collected from different populations along the elevational gradient. As expected, the extent of herbivore damage in the field was significantly lower at higher elevations, and it increased with the population size and at sites without shrubs. In the common garden experiment, herbivore damage was higher in plants originating from lower elevations and from more open habitats. While higher herbivore pressure in the field at lower elevations may suggest that plants will be better protected against herbivores at lower elevations, the common garden study demonstrated the opposite. A possible explanation could be that plants from higher elevations have to adapt to extreme conditions, and lower palatability is a side effect of these adaptations. Thus, S. nubicola in the Himalayan region is likely to survive the expected higher herbivore pressure caused by an upward shift of herbivores under future climate change. Future studies should attempt to elucidate generality of such a conclusion by studying multiple species along similar gradients. Our results from comparison of the field and common garden study suggest that future experiments need to include comparisons in common environments to understand the expected response of plants to changes in herbivore pressure.

Target loads of atmospheric sulfur deposition for the protection and recovery of acid-sensitive streams in the Southern Blue Ridge Province

Treesearch

Timothy Sullivan; Bernard Cosby; William Jackson

2011-01-01

An important tool in the evaluation of acidification damage to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems is the critical load (CL), which represents the steady-state level of acidic deposition below which ecological damage would not be expected to occur, according to current scientific understanding. A deposition load intended to be protective of a specified resource...

Fast Prediction of Blast Damage from Airbursts: An Empirical Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Peter G.; Stokan, Ed

2016-10-01

The February 15, 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst was the first modern bolide whose associated shockwave caused blast damage at the ground (Popova et al., 2013). Near-Earth Object (NEO) impacts in the Chelyabinsk-size range (~20 m) are expected to occur every few decades (Boslough et al., 2015) and therefore we expect ground damage from meteoric airbursts to be the next planetary defense threat to be confronted. With pre-impact detections of small NEOs certain to become more common, decision makers will be faced with estimating blast damage from impactors with uncertain physical properties on short timescales.High fidelity numerical bolide entry models have been developed in recent years (eg. Boslough and Crawford, 2008; Shuvalov et al., 2013), but the wide range in a priori data about strength, fragmentation behavior, and other physical properties for a specific impactor make predictions of bolide behavior difficult. The long computational running times for hydrocode models make the exploration of a wide parameter space challenging in the days to hours before an actual impact.Our approach to this problem is to use an analytical bolide entry model, the triggered-progressive fragmentation model (TPFM) developed by ReVelle (2005) within a Monte Carlo formalism. In particular, we couple this model with empirical constraints on the statistical spread in strength for meter-scale impactors from Brown et al (2015) based on the observed height at maximum bolide brightness. We also use the correlation of peak bolide brightness with total energy as given by Brown (2016) as a proxy for fragmentation behaviour. Using these constraints, we are able to quickly generate a large set of realizations of probable bolide energy deposition curves and produce simple estimates of expected blast damage using existing analytical relations.We validate this code with the known parameters of the Chelyabinsk airburst and explore how changes to the entry conditions of the observed bolide may have modified the blast damage at the ground. We will also present how this approach could be used in an actual short-warning impact scenario.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The Central Campus construction site is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

A support building is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The roof of the Operations Support Building I is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The roof of the Operations Support Building II is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

Bob Cabana, director of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, begins an aerial survey of the center on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The NASA News Center is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The Beach House is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The Vehicle Assembly Building is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The Launch Complex 39 area is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

Launch Complex 39B is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

Launch Complex 39B is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The NASA TV Support Building at the NASA News Center is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

A display area in front of the Vehicle Assembly Building is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

A tree is seen across a road during a survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Survey

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

The Beach House is seen during an aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Damage Assessment

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-08

An aerial survey of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida was conducted after Hurricane Matthew hit the Space Coast area. The survey was performed to identify structures and facilities that may have sustained damage from Hurricane Matthew as the storm passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Rideout Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

GLANCE - calculatinG heaLth impActs of atmospheric pollutioN in a Changing climatE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Leif; Faria, Sérgio; Markandya, Anil

2016-04-01

Current annual global estimates of premature deaths from poor air quality are estimated in the range of 2.6-4.4 million, and 2050 projections are expected to double against 2010 levels. In Europe, annual economic burdens are estimated at around 750 bn €. Climate change will further exacerbate air pollution burdens; therefore, a better understanding of the economic impacts on human societies has become an area of intense investigation. European research efforts are being carried out within the MACC project series, which started in 2005. The outcome of this work has been integrated into a European capacity for Earth Observation, the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). In MACC/CAMS, key pollutant concentrations are computed at the European scale and globally by employing chemically-driven advanced transport models. The project GLANCE (calculatinG heaLth impActs of atmospheric pollutioN in a Changing climatE) aims at developing an integrated assessment model for calculating the health impacts and damage costs of air pollution at different physical scales. It combines MACC/CAMS (assimilated Earth Observations, an ensemble of chemical transport models and state of the art ECWMF weather forecasting) with downscaling based on in-situ network measurements. The strengthening of modelled projections through integration with empirical evidence reduces errors and uncertainties in the health impact projections and subsequent economic cost assessment. In addition, GLANCE will yield improved data accuracy at different time resolutions. This project is a multidisciplinary approach which brings together expertise from natural sciences and socio economic fields. Here, its general approach will be presented together with first results for the years 2007 - 2012 on the European scale. The results on health impacts and economic burdens are compared to existing assessments.

Planning outstanding reserves in general insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeva, E.; Pavlov, V.

2017-10-01

Each insurance company have to ensure its solvency through presentation of accounts for its own reserves in the start of the year. Usually the task of the actuary is to estimate the state of the company on an annual basis and the expectation of the status of the company for a future period. One of the major problem when calculating the liabilities of the incurred claims, is related to the delay of payments. Object of consideration in the present note are the outstanding claim reserves, which are set aside to cover claims, occurred before the date of the annual account, but still not paid, and related with them expenses. There may be different reasons for the delay of claims settlement. For example, continuation the process of the liquidation of the damage waiting for necessary documents or the presence of controversial cases whose permission takes time, etc. Thus the claims, which determine the outstanding reserves could be divided in the following types: claims, which are reported, but not settled (RBNS); claims, which are incurred but not reported (IBNR); claims, whose case is finished, but it is possible to be reopened. When calculating the reserves for IBNR claims, most widely used is the Chain-ladder method and its modification presented by the Bornhuetter - Ferguson method. For modeling the outstanding claims, the available data should be presented in so called run-off triangle, which underlies in the basis of such methods. The present work provides a review of the algorithm for calculating insurance outstanding claim reserves according to the Chain-ladder method. Using available data for claims related to liability of drivers, registered in Bulgaria an example is constructed to illustrate the methodology of the Chain-Ladder method. Back-testing approach is used for validating the results.

Have the annual trends of total hip arthroplasty in rheumatoid arthritis patients decreased?

PubMed Central

Onuoha, Kemjika O.; Solow, Max; Newman, Jared M.; Sodhi, Nipun; Pivec, Robert; Khlopas, Anton; Sultan, Assem A.; Chughtai, Morad; Shah, Neil V.; George, Jaiben

2017-01-01

Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is characterized by chronic systemic and synovial inflammation, resulting in damage to both cartilage and bone. Medical treatment, which has increasingly relied upon disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), may fail to slow disease progression and limit joint damage, ultimately warranting surgical intervention. Up to 25% of RA patients will require lower extremity total joint arthroplasty. Though total hip arthroplasty (THA) is known to improve quality of life and functional measures, clarification is still required with respect to the impact of increased DMARD use on annual rates of THA. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate: (I) the annual trends of THAs due to RA in the United States population; (II) the annual trends in the proportion of THAs due to RA in the United States. Methods This study utilized the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) to identify all patients who underwent THA between 2002 and 2013 (n=3,135,904). Then, THA patients who had a diagnosis of RA, which was defined by the International Classification of Disease 9th revision diagnosis code 714.0, were identified. The incidence of THAs with a diagnosis of RA in the United States was calculated using the United States population as the denominator. Regression models were used to analyze the annual trends of RA in patients who underwent THA. Results Review of the database identified 90,487 patients who had a diagnosis of RA and underwent THA from 2002 to 2013. The annual prevalence of RA in those who underwent THA slightly decreased over the specified time period, with 28.7 per 1,000 THAs in 2002 and 28.6 per 1,000 THAs in 2013; however, this change was not statistically significant (R2=0.158, P=0.200). Conclusions The annual rates of THA among RA patients did not show any significant change between 2002 and 2013. DMARD use has decreased both disease progression and joint destruction, and DMARDs are now often utilized as primary treatment. The increase in population of the country during the study period may have overestimated THA trends. Moreover, patients may be more likely to opt for surgical management, given the advances in operative techniques as well as peri- and post-operative course. PMID:29299482

The damage equivalence of electrons, protons, and gamma rays in MOS devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brucker, G. J.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Van Gunten, O.; August, L. S.; Jordan, T. M.

1982-01-01

The results of laboratory tests to determine the radiation damage effects induced on MOS devices from Co-60, electron, and proton radiation are reported. The tests are performed to establish the relationship between the Co-60 gamma rays and the level of damage to the MOS devices in regards to different damages which can be expected with the electron and particle bombardments experienced in space applications. CMOS devices were exposed to the Co-60 gamma rays, 1 MeV electrons, and 1 MeV protons while operating at 3, 10, and 15 V. The test data indicated that the Co-60 source was reliable for an initial evaluation of the electron damages up to 2 MeV charge. A correction factor was devised for transferring the Co-60 measurements to proton damages, independent of bias and transistor types, for any orbit or environment.

Assessment of anosognosia in persons with frontal lobe damage: clinical utility of the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI).

PubMed

Murrey, G J; Hale, F M; Williams, J D

2005-08-10

To determine if the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI) demonstrates clinical utility in differentiating between persons with severe TBI and frontal lobe damage/anosognosia and persons with mild TBI and no frontal lobe damage. Forty-three persons with TBI and documented frontal lobe damage (mean age = 34; mean time since injury = 5.2 years) and 69 persons with mild TBI and no frontal lobe damage (mean age = 34.3; mean time since injury = 4.8 4.8 years). MPAI. Total inventory and select sub-category difference scores were significantly greater in the frontal lobe group than in the non-frontal lobe group. However, as expected, there was no significant difference between the two groups on the mobility sub-category difference scores. The MPAI appears to be potentially clinically useful in assessing for frontal lobe damage and associated anosognosia in patients with TBI.

Assessing potential radiological harm to fukushima recovery workers.

PubMed

Scott, Bobby R

2011-01-01

A radiological emergency exists at the Fukushima Daiichi (Fukushima I) nuclear power plant in Japan as a result of the March 11, 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake and the massive tsunami that arrived later. News media misinformation related to the emergency triggered enormous social fear worldwide of the radioactivity that is being released from damaged fuel rods. The heroic recovery workers are a major concern because they are being exposed to mostly gamma radiation during their work shifts and life-threatening damage to the radiosensitive bone marrow could occur over time. This paper presents a way in which the bone marrow equivalent dose (in millisieverts), as estimated per work shift, could be used along with the hazard function model previously developed for radiological risk assessment to repeatedly check for potential life-threatening harm (hematopoietic system damage) to workers. Three categories of radiation hazard indication are proposed: 1, life-threatening damage unlikely; 2, life-threatening damage possible; 3, life-threatening damage likely. Categories 2 and 3 would be avoided if the whole body effective dose did not exceed the annual effective dose limit of 250 mSv. For down-wind populations, hormetic effects (activated natural protective processes) are much more likely than are deleterious effects.

Probabilistic and deterministic evaluation of uncertainty in a local scale multi-risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lari, S.; Frattini, P.; Crosta, G. B.

2009-04-01

We performed a probabilistic multi-risk analysis (QPRA) at the local scale for a 420 km2 area surrounding the town of Brescia (Northern Italy). We calculated the expected annual loss in terms of economical damage and life loss, for a set of risk scenarios of flood, earthquake and industrial accident with different occurrence probabilities and different intensities. The territorial unit used for the study was the census parcel, of variable area, for which a large amount of data was available. Due to the lack of information related to the evaluation of the hazards, to the value of the exposed elements (e.g., residential and industrial area, population, lifelines, sensitive elements as schools, hospitals) and to the process-specific vulnerability, and to a lack of knowledge of the processes (floods, industrial accidents, earthquakes), we assigned an uncertainty to the input variables of the analysis. For some variables an homogeneous uncertainty was assigned on the whole study area, as for instance for the number of buildings of various typologies, and for the event occurrence probability. In other cases, as for phenomena intensity (e.g.,depth of water during flood) and probability of impact, the uncertainty was defined in relation to the census parcel area. In fact assuming some variables homogeneously diffused or averaged on the census parcels, we introduce a larger error for larger parcels. We propagated the uncertainty in the analysis using three different models, describing the reliability of the output (risk) as a function of the uncertainty of the inputs (scenarios and vulnerability functions). We developed a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulation, and two deterministic models, namely First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Point Estimate (PE). In general, similar values of expected losses are obtained with the three models. The uncertainty of the final risk value is in the three cases around the 30% of the expected value. Each of the models, nevertheless, requires different assumptions and computational efforts, and provides results with different level of detail.

The Generation of a Stochastic Flood Event Catalogue for Continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in the acquisition of spatiotemporal environmental data and improvements in computational capabilities has enabled the generation of large scale, even global, flood hazard layers which serve as a critical decision-making tool for a range of end users. However, these datasets are designed to indicate only the probability and depth of inundation at a given location and are unable to describe the likelihood of concurrent flooding across multiple sites.Recent research has highlighted that although the estimation of large, widespread flood events is of great value to flood mitigation and insurance industries, to date it has been difficult to deal with this spatial dependence structure in flood risk over relatively large scales. Many existing approaches have been restricted to empirical estimates of risk based on historic events, limiting their capability of assessing risk over the full range of plausible scenarios. Therefore, this research utilises a recently developed model-based approach to describe the multisite joint distribution of extreme river flows across continental USA river gauges. Given an extreme event at a site, the model characterises the likelihood neighbouring sites are also impacted. This information is used to simulate an ensemble of plausible synthetic extreme event footprints from which flood depths are extracted from an existing global flood hazard catalogue. Expected economic losses are then estimated by overlaying flood depths with national datasets defining asset locations, characteristics and depth damage functions. The ability of this approach to quantify probabilistic economic risk and rare threshold exceeding events is expected to be of value to those interested in the flood mitigation and insurance sectors.This work describes the methodological steps taken to create the flood loss catalogue over a national scale; highlights the uncertainty in the expected annual economic vulnerability within the USA from extreme river flows; and presents future developments to the modelling approach.

Ultraviolet radiation in the Atacama Desert.

PubMed

Cordero, R R; Damiani, A; Jorquera, J; Sepúlveda, E; Caballero, M; Fernandez, S; Feron, S; Llanillo, P J; Carrasco, J; Laroze, D; Labbe, F

2018-03-31

The world's highest levels of surface ultraviolet (UV) irradiance have been measured in the Atacama Desert. This area is characterized by its high altitude, prevalent cloudless conditions, and a relatively low total ozone column. In this paper, we provide estimates of the surface UV (monthly UV index at noon and annual doses of UV-B and UV-A) for all sky conditions in the Atacama Desert. We found that the UV index at noon during the austral summer is expected to be greater than 11 in the whole desert. The annual UV-B (UV-A) doses were found to range from about 3.5 kWh/m 2 (130 kWh/m 2 ) in coastal areas to 5 kWh/m 2 (160 kWh/m 2 ) on the Andean plateau. Our results confirm significant interhemispherical differences. Typical annual UV-B doses in the Atacama Desert are about 40% greater than typical annual UV-B doses in northern Africa. Mostly due to seasonal changes in the ozone, the differences between the Atacama Desert and northern Africa are expected to be about 60% in the case of peak UV-B levels (i.e. the UV-B irradiances at noon close to the summer solstice in each hemisphere). Interhemispherical differences in the UV-A are significantly lower since the effect of the ozone in this part of the spectrum is minor.

Assessing the impact of heart failure specialist services on patient populations.

PubMed

Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Cook, Gary A; McElduff, Patrick; Havely, Daniel; Edwards, Richard; Heller, Richard F

2004-05-24

The assessment of the impact of healthcare interventions may help commissioners of healthcare services to make optimal decisions. This can be particularly the case if the impact assessment relates to specific patient populations and uses timely local data. We examined the potential impact on readmissions and mortality of specialist heart failure services capable of delivering treatments such as b-blockers and Nurse-Led Educational Intervention (N-LEI). Statistical modelling of prevented or postponed events among previously hospitalised patients, using estimates of: treatment uptake and contraindications (based on local audit data); treatment effectiveness and intolerance (based on literature); and annual number of hospitalization per patient and annual risk of death (based on routine data). Optimal treatment uptake among eligible but untreated patients would over one year prevent or postpone 11% of all expected readmissions and 18% of all expected deaths for spironolactone, 13% of all expected readmisisons and 22% of all expected deaths for b-blockers (carvedilol) and 20% of all expected readmissions and an uncertain number of deaths for N-LEI. Optimal combined treatment uptake for all three interventions during one year among all eligible but untreated patients would prevent or postpone 37% of all expected readmissions and a minimum of 36% of all expected deaths. In a population of previously hospitalised patients with low previous uptake of b-blockers and no uptake of N-LEI, optimal combined uptake of interventions through specialist heart failure services can potentially help prevent or postpone approximately four times as many readmissions and a minimum of twice as many deaths compared with simply optimising uptake of spironolactone (not necessarily requiring specialist services). Examination of the impact of different heart failure interventions can inform rational planning of relevant healthcare services.

Modeling Individual Patient Preferences for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Their Tolerance for Complications Risk.

PubMed

Taksler, Glen B; Perzynski, Adam T; Kattan, Michael W

2017-04-01

Recommendations for colorectal cancer screening encourage patients to choose among various screening methods based on individual preferences for benefits, risks, screening frequency, and discomfort. We devised a model to illustrate how individuals with varying tolerance for screening complications risk might decide on their preferred screening strategy. We developed a discrete-time Markov mathematical model that allowed hypothetical individuals to maximize expected lifetime utility by selecting screening method, start age, stop age, and frequency. Individuals could choose from stool-based testing every 1 to 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 1 to 20 years with annual stool-based testing, colonoscopy every 1 to 20 years, or no screening. We compared the life expectancy gained from the chosen strategy with the life expectancy available from a benchmark strategy of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual at average risk of colorectal cancer who was risk neutral with respect to screening complications (and therefore was willing to undergo screening if it would actuarially increase life expectancy), the model predicted that he or she would choose colonoscopy every 10 years, from age 53 to 73 years, consistent with national guidelines. For a similar individual who was moderately averse to screening complications risk (and therefore required a greater increase in life expectancy to accept potential risks of colonoscopy), the model predicted that he or she would prefer flexible sigmoidoscopy every 12 years with annual stool-based testing, with 93% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual with higher risk aversion, the model predicted that he or she would prefer 2 lifetime flexible sigmoidoscopies, 20 years apart, with 70% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. Mathematical models may formalize how individuals with different risk attitudes choose between various guideline-recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies.

Air Emissions Damages from Municipal Drinking Water Treatment Under Current and Proposed Regulatory Standards.

PubMed

Gingerich, Daniel B; Mauter, Meagan S

2017-09-19

Water treatment processes present intersectoral and cross-media risk trade-offs that are not presently considered in Safe Drinking Water Act regulatory analyses. This paper develops a method for assessing the air emission implications of common municipal water treatment processes used to comply with recently promulgated and proposed regulatory standards, including concentration limits for, lead and copper, disinfection byproducts, chromium(VI), strontium, and PFOA/PFOS. Life-cycle models of electricity and chemical consumption for individual drinking water unit processes are used to estimate embedded NO x , SO 2 , PM 2.5 , and CO 2 emissions on a cubic meter basis. We estimate air emission damages from currently installed treatment processes at U.S. drinking water facilities to be on the order of $500 million USD annually. Fully complying with six promulgated and proposed rules would increase baseline air emission damages by approximately 50%, with three-quarters of these damages originating from chemical manufacturing. Despite the magnitude of these air emission damages, the net benefit of currently implemented rules remains positive. For some proposed rules, however, the promise of net benefits remains contingent on technology choice.

Follow-up of schoolchildren in the vicinity of a coal-fired power plant in Israel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goren, A.I.; Hellmann, S.; Brenner, S.

1991-08-01

This study was carried out in the framework of a health monitoring system set up in the vicinity of a 1400 megawatt coal-fired power plant in Israel. Second- and fifth-grade schoolchildren were followed up every 3 years; they performed pulmonary function tests (PFT), and their parents filled out American Thoracic Society-National Heart and Lung Institute health questionnaires. Among the cohort of second graders (in 1983) living in the area expected to be most polluted, a significant increase in the prevalence of part of the respiratory symptoms was evident in 1986. The prevalence of asthma among fifth graders in this areamore » doubled compared with prevalence when they were second graders. Among the children from the older cohort (fifth graders in 1983) living in this community, a similar although milder trend could be observed, especially in regard to an increased prevalence of asthma in 1986 compared with 1983. Annual increases in PFT in the four groups of children (boys and girls from both cohorts) were found to be higher in the community expected to be polluted (especially in the younger cohort) compared with the two other communities. The discrepancy between the increased prevalence of respiratory symptoms and diseases and the higher annual increase in PET among children from the expected more polluted community may be partly attributable to differential annual increase in height and to different distribution of background variables in the three communities.« less

Boulder damage symposium annual thin film laser damage competition

DOE PAGES

Stolz, Christopher J.

2012-11-28

Optical instruments and laser systems are often fluence-limited by multilayer thin films deposited on the optical surfaces. When comparing publications within the laser damage literature, there can be confusing and conflicting laser damage results. This is due to differences in testing protocols between research groups studying very different applications. In this series of competitions, samples from multiple vendors are compared under identical testing parameters and a single testing service. Unlike a typical study where a hypothesis is tested within a well-controlled experiment with isolated variables, this competition isolates the laser damage testing variables so that trends can be observed betweenmore » different deposition processes, coating materials, cleaning techniques, and multiple coating suppliers. The resulting series of damage competitions has also been designed to observe general trends of damage morphologies and mechanisms over a wide range of coating types (high reflector and antireflector), wavelengths (193 to 1064 nm), and pulse lengths (180 fs to 13 ns). A double blind test assured sample and submitter anonymity were used in each of the competitions so only a summary of the deposition process, coating materials, layer count and spectral results are presented. Laser resistance was strongly affected by substrate cleaning, coating deposition method, and coating material selection whereas layer count and spectral properties had minimal impact.« less

Optical damage observed in the LHMEL II output coupler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eric, John J.; Bagford, John O.; Devlin, Christie L. H.; Hull, Robert J.; Seibert, Daniel B.

2008-01-01

During the annual NIST calibration testing done at the LHMEL facility in FY06 on its high energy Carbon-Dioxide lasers, the LHMEL II device suffered severe damage to the internal surface of its ZnSe output coupler optics. The damage occurred during a high power, short duration run and it was believed to have been the result of a significant amount of surface contaminants interacting with the LHMEL cavity beam. Initial theories as to the source of the contamination led to the inspection of the vacuum grease that seals the piping that supplies the source gases to the laser cavity. Other contamination sources were considered, and analysis was conducted in an effort to identify the material found at the damage sites on the optic, but the tests were mainly inconclusive. Some procedure changes were initiated to identify possible contamination before high energy laser operation in an attempt to mitigate and possibly prevent the continued occurrence of damage to the output coupler window. This paper is to illustrate the type and extent of the damage encountered, highlight some of the theories as to the contamination source, and serve as a notice as to the severity and consequences of damage that is possible even due to small amounts of foreign material in a high energy laser environment.

First report of the Soybean Cyst Nematode, Heterodera glycines, in New York

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The soybean cyst nematode (SCN), Heterodera glycines Ichinohe, is the most damaging pathogen of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.), causing more than $1 billion in yield losses annually in the United States (Koenning and Wrather 2010). The SCN distribution map updated in 2014 showed that SCN were dete...

Traffic safety facts 1996 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2005 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2006 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Biological control as a tool to mitigate economic impacts of facilitative ecological interactions between the giant reed and cattle fever ticks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Annual domestic impacts associated with introduced weeds are conservatively estimated at $27 billion, incorporating costs of weed management, crop losses and displacement of productive rangeland, and displacement of some environmental services. Estimating the total economic damage of invasive weed...

Special Engineering Services to Establish Inspection Criteria for Bearings to Improve Life Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-01

ll i . -- II 53 I V. REFERENCES 1. Barton, J. R., "Early Fatigue Damage Detection in 4140 Steel Tubes", Proc. Fifth Annual Symposium on NDE of...34Advanced Non- destructive Testing Methods for Bearing Inspection", SAE Paper No. 720172, Automotive Engineering Congress, Detroit, Michigan, January

49 CFR 579.23 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more motorcycles annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., 10 power train, 11 electrical, 12 exterior lighting, 16 structure,18 vehicle speed control, 19 tires... complaints, warranty claims, and field reports. Separate reports on the numbers of those property damage claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports which involve the systems and components...

49 CFR 579.23 - Reporting requirements for manufacturers of 5,000 or more motorcycles annually.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... the report with a limit of five codes to be included. (c) Numbers of property damage claims, consumer... claims, consumer complaints, warranty claims, and field reports which involve the systems and components..., consumer complaints, warranty claims, or field reports, respectively, that involves the systems or...

Traffic safety facts 2000 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2001 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 1998 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-10-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2002 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 2003 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Traffic safety facts 1999 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

Novel Strategies for the Treatment of Estrogen Receptor-Negative Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-01

quercetin on benzo[a]pyrene induced DNA damage in HepG2 cells as measured by the comet assay” at the Annual Intermountain Meeting of the American Society...Anti-genotoxic effects of Garlic extract and Quercetin as Measured by the Comet Assay, The Journal of the Intermountain Branch of the American

Annual Report on Electronics Research at the University of Texas at Austin.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-05-15

changes. The goal of this program is to determine non-destructively where a particular sample is on its life curve or where its damage threshold is at a...EleLtOsios Iaboratory Deoty Director taford Uiversity sesearch and Teohnology Division Stanford. CA 94305 Offirs o Aeronutic. and Spare Tech. NASA

Traffic safety facts 1994 : a compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the fatality analysis reporting system and the general estimates system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

This annual report presents descriptive statistics about traffic crashes of all severities, from those that result in property damage to those that result in the loss of human life. Information from two of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administ...

The role of photosynthesis in improving maize tolerance to ozone pollution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ground-level ozone pollution has more than doubled since pre-industrial times, and is currently estimated to cause up to 10% reductions in U.S. maize yields annually. Maize productivity is reduced by exposure to ozone as it diffuses through stomatal pores and reacts to form damaging reactive oxygen ...

Geographic health inequalities in Norway: a Gini analysis of cross-county differences in mortality from 1980 to 2014.

PubMed

Skaftun, Eirin K; Verguet, Stéphane; Norheim, Ole F; Johansson, Kjell A

2018-05-24

This study aims at quantifying the level and changes over time of inequality in age-specific mortality and life expectancy between the 19 Norwegian counties from 1980 to 2014. Data on population and mortality by county was obtained from Statistics Norway for 1980-2014. Life expectancy and age-specific mortality rates (0-4, 5-49 and 50-69 age groups) were estimated by year and county. Geographic inequality was described by the absolute Gini index annually. Life expectancy in Norway has increased from 75.6 to 82.0 years, and the risk of death before the age of 70 has decreased from 26 to 14% from 1980 to 2014. The absolute Gini index decreased over the period 1980 to 2014 from 0.43 to 0.32 for life expectancy, from 0.012 to 0.0057 for the age group 50-69 years, from 0.0038 to 0.0022 for the age group 5-49 years, and from 0.0009 to 0.0006 for the age group 0-4 years. It will take between 2 and 32 years (national average 7 years) until the counties catch up with the life expectancy in the best performing county if their annual rates of increase remain unchanged. Using the absolute Gini index as a metric for monitoring changes in geographic inequality over time may be a valuable tool for informing public health policies. The absolute inequality in mortality and life expectancy between Norwegian counties has decreased from 1980 to 2014.

Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Impact of Atmospheric Aerosols on Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Wagner, F.; Peng, W.; Yang, J.

2016-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance (TCIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.

2009-04-01

Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing earthquake-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for earthquake damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 earthquakes) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration rate is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of earthquake loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of earthquake zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The earthquake engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average rate of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar earthquake exposure. From an earthquake engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, earthquake intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, models can be developed where its expected earthquake performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned earthquake hazard) and basic structural attributes (earthquake vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of earthquake vulnerability.

Future Oil Spills and Possibilities for Intervention: A Model for the Coupled Human-Environmental Resource Extraction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shughrue, C. M.; Werner, B.; Nugnug, P. T.

2010-12-01

The catastrophic Deepwater Horizon oil spill highlights the risks for widespread environmental damage resulting from petroleum resource extraction. Possibilities for amelioration of these risks depend critically on understanding the dynamics and nonlinear interactions between various components of the coupled human-environmental resource extraction system. We use a complexity analysis to identify the levels of description and time scales at which these interactions are strongest, and then use the analysis as the basis for an agent-based numerical model with which decadal trends can be analyzed. Oil industry economic and technological activity and associated oil spills are components of a complex system that is coupled to natural environment, legislation, regulation, media, and resistance systems over annual to decadal time scales. In the model, oil spills are produced stochastically with a range of magnitudes depending on a reliability-engineering-based assessment of failure for the technology employed, human factors including compliance with operating procedures, and risks associated with the drilling environment. Oil industry agents determine drilling location and technological investment using a cost-benefit analysis relating projected revenue from added production to technology cost and government regulation. Media outlet agents reporting on the oil industry and environmental damage from oil spills assess the impacts of aggressively covering a story on circulation increases, advertiser concerns and potential loss of information sources. Environmental advocacy group agents increase public awareness of environmental damage (through media and public contact), solicit memberships and donations, and apply direct pressure on legislators for policy change. Heterogeneous general public agents adjust their desire for change in the level of regulation, contact their representatives or participate in resistance via protest by considering media sources, personal experiences with oil spills and individual predispositions toward the industry. Legislator agents pass legislation and influence regulator agents based on interaction with oil industry, media and general public agents. Regulator agents generate and enforce regulations by responding to pressure from legislator and oil industry agents. Oil spill impacts on the natural environment are related to number and magnitude of spills, drilling locations, and spill response methodology, determined collaboratively by government and oil company agents. Agents at the corporate and government levels use heterogeneous prediction models combined with a constant absolute risk aversion utility for wealth. This model simulates a nonlinear adaptive system with mechanisms to self-regulate oil industry activity, environmental damage and public response. A comparison of model output with historical oil industry development and environmental damage; the sensitivity of oil spill damage to economic, political and social factors; the potential for the emergence of new and possibly unstable behaviors; and opportunities for intervening in system dynamics to alter expected outcomes will be discussed. Supported by NSF: Geomorphology and Land Use Dynamics Program

Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

2016-10-01

This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012-2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.

A tool for the calculation of rockfall fragility curves for masonry buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavrouli, Olga

2017-04-01

Masonries are common structures in mountainous and coastal areas and they exhibit substantial vulnerability to rockfalls. For big rockfall events or precarious structures the damage is very high and the repair is not cost-effective. Nonetheless, for small or moderate rockfalls, the damage may vary in function of the characteristics of the impacting rock blocks and of the buildings. The evaluation of the expected damage for masonry buildings, and for different small and moderate rockfall scenarios, is useful for assessing the expected direct loss at constructed areas, and its implications for life safety. A tool for the calculation of fragility curves for masonry buildings which are impacted by rock blocks is presented. The fragility curves provide the probability of exceeding a given damage state (low, moderate and high) for increasing impact energies of the rock blocks on the walls. The damage states are defined according to a damage index equal to the percentage of the damaged area of a wall, as being proportional to the repair cost. Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are incorporated with respect to the (i) rock block velocity, (ii) rock block size, (iii) masonry width, and (iv) masonry resistance. The calculation of the fragility curves is applied using a Monte Carlo simulation. Given user-defined data for the average value of these four parameters and their variability, random scenarios are developed, the respective damage index is assessed for each scenario, and the probability of exceedance of each damage state is calculated. For the assessment of the damage index, a database developed by the results of 576 analytical simulations is used. The variables range is: wall width 0.4 - 1.0 m, wall tensile strength 0.1 - 0.6 MPa, rock velocity 1-20 m/s, rock size 1-20 m3. Nonetheless this tool permits the use of alternative databases, on the condition that they contain data that correlate the damage with the four aforementioned variables. The fragility curves can be calculated using this tool either for single or for groups of buildings, as long as their characteristics are properly reflected in the variability of the input parameters. Selected examples of fragility curves sets are presented demonstrating the effect of the input parameters on the calculated probability of exceeding a given damage state, for different masonry typologies (stone and brick).

Ecosystem services impacts associated with environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nitrogen release to the environment from human activities can have important and costly impacts on human health, recreation, transportation, fisheries, and ecosystem health. Recent efforts to quantify these damage costs have identified annual damages associated with reactive nitrogen release to the EU and US in the hundreds of billions of US dollars (USD). The general approach used to estimate these damages associated with reactive nitrogen are derived from a variety of methods to estimate economic damages, for example, impacts to human respiratory health in terms of hospital visits and mortality, willingness to pay to improve a water body and costs to replace or treat drinking water systems affected by nitrate or cyanotoxin contamination. These values are then extrapolated to other areas to develop the damage cost estimates that are probably best seen as potential damage costs, particularly for aquatic ecosystems. We seek to provide an additional verification of these potential damages using data assembled by the US EPA for case studies of measured costs of nutrient impacts across the US from 2000-2012. We compare the spatial distribution and the magnitude of these costs with the spatial distribution and magnitude of costs from HUC8 watershed units across the US by Sobota et al. (2015). We anticipate that this analysis will provide a ground truthing of existing damage cost estimates, and continue to support the incorporation of cost and benefit informatio

Cigarette smoking and cutaneous damage in systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Turchin, Irina; Bernatsky, Sasha; Clarke, Ann E; St-Pierre, Yvan; Pineau, Christian A

2009-12-01

To evaluate the association between cigarette smoking and cutaneous damage in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Our study was performed in SLE clinic registry cohort patients, all of whom fulfilled revised American College of Rheumatology criteria for SLE; patients are followed prospectively with annual assessments that include collection of demographic variables, smoking history, disease activity (SLE Disease Activity Index version 2000, SLEDAI-2K), medications, and damage scores (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/ACR Damage Index). Cumulative cutaneous damage scores were used for the primary analyses. Logistic and logit regression models were performed to examine potential associations between current smoking and cutaneous damage, controlling for age, sex, race, lupus disease duration, antimalarial or immunosuppressant use, and anti-DNA and anti-SSA antibody status. Of our sample (N = 276), 92% were women and 73.7% were Caucasian; the mean age was 45.1 years, mean disease duration 13.5 years, and 17.5% were current smokers. In the regression analyses, current cigarette smoking was associated with total cutaneous damage (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.10, 6.81) and with scarring (OR 4.70, 95 CI 1.04, 21.2). In additional analyses, current smoking was also associated with active lupus rash (OR 6.18, 95% CI 1.63, 23.3). Current cigarette smoking may be associated with cutaneous damage and active lupus rash in SLE, suggesting another reason to emphasize smoking cessation in patients with SLE.

Assessment of the effectiveness of participatory developed adaptation strategies for HCMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasage, R.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; de Moel, H.; Van, T. C.; Phi, H. L.; Vellinga, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2014-01-01

Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, especially Asian cities are subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reducing measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry- and wet flood proofing of buildings). A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage-damage curves for residential buildings. the model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in Expected Annual Damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea level scenarios and land use scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit-cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5%. The results of this modeling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is 0.31 million USD yr-1, increasing up to 0.78 million USD yr-1 in 2100. The net present value and benefit-cost ratios using a discount rate of 5% range from USD -107 to -1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit cost ratio. The adaptation strategies wet proofing and dry proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. The information on different strategies will be used by the government of Ho Chi Minh City for selecting a new flood protection strategy. Future research should focus on gathering empirical data right after a flood on the occurring damage, as this appears to be the most uncertain factor in the risk assessment.

Assessment of the effectiveness of flood adaptation strategies for HCMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasage, R.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; de Moel, H.; Van, T. C.; Phi, H. L.; Vellinga, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2014-06-01

Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, Asian cities in particular are subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reduction measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea-level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood-prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry- and wet proofing of buildings and elevating roads and buildings). A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage-damage curves for residential buildings. The model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in expected annual damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea-level scenarios and land-use scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit-cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5%. The results of this modelling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is USD 0.31 million per year, increasing up to USD 0.78 million per year in 2100. The net present value and benefit-cost ratios using a discount rate of 5 % range from USD -107 to -1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit-cost ratio. The adaptation strategies wet-proofing and dry-proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. The information on different strategies will be used by the government of Ho Chi Minh City to determine a new flood protection strategy. Future research should focus on gathering empirical data right after a flood on the occurring damage, as this appears to be the most uncertain factor in the risk assessment.

Analysis and modeling of a hail event consequences on a building portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolet, Pierrick; Voumard, Jérémie; Choffet, Marc; Demierre, Jonathan; Imhof, Markus; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2014-05-01

North-West Switzerland has been affected by a severe Hail Storm in July 2011, which was especially intense in the Canton of Aargau. The damage cost of this event is around EUR 105 Million only for the Canton of Aargau, which corresponds to half of the mean annual consolidated damage cost of the last 20 years for the 19 Cantons (over 26) with a public insurance. The aim of this project is to benefit from the collected insurance data to better understand and estimate the risk of such event. In a first step, a simple hail event simulator, which has been developed for a previous hail episode, is modified. The geometric properties of the storm is derived from the maximum intensity radar image by means of a set of 2D Gaussians instead of using 1D Gaussians on profiles, as it was the case in the previous version. The tool is then tested on this new event in order to establish its ability to give a fast damage estimation based on the radar image and buildings value and location. The geometrical properties are used in a further step to generate random outcomes with similar characteristics, which are combined with a vulnerability curve and an event frequency to estimate the risk. The vulnerability curve comes from a 2009 event and is improved with data from this event, whereas the frequency for the Canton is estimated from insurance records. In addition to this regional risk analysis, this contribution aims at studying the relation of the buildings orientation with the damage rate. Indeed, it is expected that the orientation of the roof influences the aging of the material by controlling the frequency and amplitude of thaw-freeze cycles, changing then the vulnerability over time. This part is established by calculating the hours of sunshine, which are used to derive the material temperatures. This information is then compared with insurance claims. A last part proposes a model to study the hail impact on a building, by modeling the different equipment on each facade of the building, such as the number of windows or the material type. The goal for this part, which is more prospective, is to have a model which would allow to quickly estimate the risk of a given building according to its physical characteristics and to the local wind conditions during a hail event.

The Effect of Localized Damage on the Electrical Conductivity of Bare Carbon Fiber Tow and its Use as a Non-Destructive Evaluation Tool for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wentzel, Daniel

2015-01-01

Composite materials are beneficial because of their high specific strength and low weight. Safety, Destructive testing and destructive testing, Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) and Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE). Problem: Neither NDT nor NDE can provide sufficient data to determine life expectancy or quantify the damage state of a composite material.

Damage sources for the NIF Grating Debris Shield (GDS) and methods for their mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, C. W.; Bude, J.; Miller, P. E.; Parham, T.; Whitman, P.; Monticelli, M.; Raman, R.; Cross, D.; Welday, B.; Ravizza, F.; Suratwala, T.; Davis, J.; Fischer, M.; Hawley, R.; Lee, H.; Matthews, M.; Norton, M.; Nostrand, M.; Vanblarcom, D.; Sommer, S.

2017-11-01

The primary sources of damage on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) Grating Debris Shield (GDS) are attributed to two independent types of laser-induced particulates. The first comes from the eruptions of bulk damage in a disposable debris shield downstream of the GDS. The second particle source comes from stray light focusing on absorbing glass armor at higher than expected fluences. We show that the composition of the particles is secondary to the energetics of their delivery, such that particles from either source are essentially benign if they arrive at the GDS with low temperatures and velocities.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-18

A damaged construction trailer and several pieces of associated debris, aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, are seen in front of the Mobile Launcher in the Launch Complex 39 area at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Assessments and repairs are in progress at various structures and facilities across the spaceport, part of the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-18

A damaged construction trailer and several pieces of associated debris, aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, are seen near the Mobile Launcher in the Launch Complex 39 area at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Assessments and repairs are in progress at various structures and facilities across the spaceport, part of the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-18

Damaged construction trailers and several pieces of associated debris, aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, are seen in front of the Mobile Launcher in the Launch Complex 39 area at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Assessments and repairs are in progress at various structures and facilities across the spaceport, part of the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

Theoretical constraints on dynamic pulverization of fault zone rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shiqing; Ben-Zion, Yehuda

2017-04-01

We discuss dynamic rupture results aiming to elucidate the generation mechanism of pulverized fault zone rocks (PFZR) observed in 100-200 m wide belts distributed asymmetrically across major strike-slip faults separating different crustal blocks. Properties of subshear and supershear ruptures are considered using analytical results of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics and numerical simulations of Mode-II ruptures along faults between similar or dissimilar solids. The dynamic fields of bimaterial subshear ruptures are expected to produce off-fault damage primarily on the stiff side of the fault, with tensile cracks having no preferred orientation, in agreement with field observations. Subshear ruptures in a homogeneous solid are expected to produce off-fault damage with high-angle tensile cracks on the extensional side of the fault, while supershear ruptures between similar or dissimilar solids are likely to produce off-fault damage on both sides of the fault with preferred tensile crack orientations. One or more of these features are not consistent with properties of natural samples of PFZR. At a distance of about 100 m from the fault, subshear and supershear ruptures without stress singularities produce strain rates up to 1 s-1. This is less than required for rock pulverization in laboratory experiments with centimetre-scale intact rock samples, but may be sufficient for pulverizing larger samples with pre-existing damage.

An overview of road damages due to flooding: Case study in Kedah state, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Muhd Shahril Nizam; Ghani, Abdul Naser Abdul

2017-10-01

Flooding occurs frequently in many countries including Malaysia. Floods in Malaysia are usually due to heavy and prolonged rainfall, uncontrolled development, and drainage systems that are not being monitored. Road damage due to flooding event can cause huge expenditures for the post-flooding rehabilitation and maintenance. The required maintenance and rehabilitation could upset the original life cycle cost estimations. Data on road statistics were obtained from the Highway Planning Division, Ministry of Works Malaysia and data on flooding was collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia for events between 2012 and 2015. The pilot sites were selected based on its historical cases of floods that caused road damages in Kedah. The pilot site indicated that the impact of flooding on road infrastructures systems can be used to plan better road design and maintenances. It also revealed that it costs more than RM 1 million to reinstate roads damaged by flooding in a typical district annually.

In Brief: Hidden environment and health costs of energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2009-10-01

The hidden costs of energy production and use in the United States amounted to an estimated $120 billion in 2005, according to a 19 October report by the U.S. National Research Council. The report, “Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use,” examines hidden costs, including the cost of air pollution damage to human health, which are not reflected in market prices of energy sources, electricity, or gasoline. The report found that in 2005, the total annual external damages from sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter created by coal-burning power plants that produced 95% of the nation's coal-generated electricity were about $62 billion, with nonclimate damages averaging about 3.2 cents for every kilowatt-hour of energy produced. It is estimated that by 2030, nonclimate damages will fall to 1.7 cents per kilowatt-hour. The 2030 figure assumes that new policies already slated for implementation are put in place.

42 CFR 60.12 - Deferment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... described in § 60.11(a)(2); (v) Pays no stipend or one which is not more than the annual stipend level... and evidence that verifies deferment eligibility of the activity (with the full expectation that the...

Eversource Energy  2015 Annual Report

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2018-03-21

... expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “project,” “believe,” “forecast,” “should,” “could ... the subsidiary companies could retain their free cash flow to fund ...

Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Storm Loss in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Based on German insurance loss data for residential property we derive storm damage functions that relate daily loss with maximum gust wind speed. Over a wide range of loss, steep power law relationships are found with spatially varying exponents ranging between approximately 8 and 12. Global correlations between parameters and socio-demographic data are employed to reduce the number of local parameters to 3. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to calculate German loss estimates including confidence bounds in daily and annual resolution. Our model reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitude.

Radiation damage of gallium arsenide production cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mardesich, N.; Garlick, G. F. J.

1987-01-01

High-efficiency gallium arsenide cells, made by the liquid epitaxy method (LPE), have been irradiated with 1-MeV electrons up to fluences of 10 to the 16th e/sq cm. Measurements have been made of cell spectral response and dark and light-excited current-voltage characteristics and analyzed using computer-based models to determine underlying parameters such as damage coefficients. It is possible to use spectral response to sort out damage effects in the different cell component layers. Damage coefficients are similar to other reported in the literature for the emitter and buffer (base). However, there is also a damage effect in the window layer and possibly at the window emitter interface similar to that found for proton-irradiated liquid-phase epitaxy-grown cells. Depletion layer recombination is found to be less than theoretically expected at high fluence.

Stochastic variation in avian survival rates: Life-history predictions, population consequences, and the potential responses to human perturbations and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Stochastic variation in survival rates is expected to decrease long-term population growth rates. This expectation influences both life-history theory and the conservation of species. From this expectation, Pfister (1998) developed the important life-history prediction that natural selection will have minimized variability in those elements of the annual life cycle (such as adult survival rate) with high sensitivity. This prediction has not been rigorously evaluated for bird populations, in part due to statistical difficulties related to variance estimation. I here overcome these difficulties, and in an analysis of 62 populations, I confirm her prediction by showing a negative relationship between the proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of adult survival and the proportional variance (CV) of adult survival. However, several species deviated significantly from this expectation, with more process variance in survival than predicted. For instance, projecting the magnitude of process variance in annual survival for American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) for 25 years resulted in a 44% decline in abundance without assuming any change in mean survival rate. For most of these species with high process variance, recent changes in harvest, habitats, or changes in climate patterns are the likely sources of environmental variability causing this variability in survival. Because of climate change, environmental variability is increasing on regional and global scales, which is expected to increase stochasticity in vital rates of species. Increased stochasticity in survival will depress population growth rates, and this result will magnify the conservation challenges we face.

THE LIQUEFACTION RISK ANALYSIS OF CEMENT-TREATED SANDY GROUND CONSIDERING THE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL STRENGTH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Norio; Kasama, Kiyonobu; Zen, Kouki; Chen, Guangqi

This paper presents a probabilistic method for assessi ng the liquefaction risk of cement-treated ground, which is an anti-liquefaction ground improved by cemen t-mixing. In this study, the liquefaction potential of cement-treated ground is analyzed statistically using Monte Carlo Simulation based on the nonlinear earthquake response analysis consid ering the spatial variability of so il properties. The seismic bearing capacity of partially liquefied ground is analyzed in order to estimat e damage costs induced by partial liquefaction. Finally, the annual li quefaction risk is calcu lated by multiplying the liquefaction potential with the damage costs. The results indicated that the proposed new method enables to evaluate the probability of liquefaction, to estimate the damage costs using the hazard curv e, fragility curve induced by liquefaction, and liq uefaction risk curve.

Flooding in the middle Koyukuk River basin, Alaska, August 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, David F.

1995-01-01

During August 1994, a flood on the Koyukuk River, Alaska, inundated the villages of Allakaket and Alatna and parts of Hughes. Topographic maps of the inundated areas, showing peak water-surface elevations and depths of water, indicate that flooding ranged from 2 to more than 10 feet deep in Allakaket, from 8 to more than 10 feet deep in Alatna, and from 0 to more than 10 feet deep in Hughes. Severe damage to buildings occurred in Allakaket and Alatna; minor damage occurred in Hughes, although some homes were irreparably damaged by inundation. Between the mouth of the Kanuti River, about 10 miles downstream from Allakaket, to Hughes, the peak discharge was about 330,000 cubic feet per second. A flow of that magnitude at Hughes has an annual probability of occurrence of 1 percent.

Hurricane Frederic tidal floods of September 12-13, 1979, along the Gulf Coast, Daphne-Point Clear quadrangles, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, John C.; Bohman, Larry R.

1980-01-01

Shown on a topographic map are floodmark elevations and approximate areas flooded by Hurricane Frederic tides of September 12-13, 1979, along the eastern shore of Mobile Bay generally from Daphne, Alabama, southward through Fairhope and Point Clear to Mullet Point, Alabama. Buildings and sewalls were damaged by flooding and tidal waves in the vicinity of Fairhope, Alabama. Most fishing piers along the shore were either destroyed or severely damaged. From Fairhope southward, many homes and other buildings, including the Grand Hotel complex at Great Point Clear, were severely damaged. Storm-tide frequency and records of annual maximum tides at Mobile, Alabama, since 1772, are presented. Offshore winds reached about 160 miles per hour. A wind-velocity of about 145 miles per hour was recorded near Dauphin Island, Alabama. (USGS)

Patient-Reported Outcomes Following Living Kidney Donation: A Single Center Experience

PubMed Central

Rodrigue, James R.; Vishnevsky, Tanya; Fleishman, Aaron; Brann, Tracy; Evenson, Amy R.; Pavlakis, Martha; Mandelbrot, Didier A.

2015-01-01

This article describes the development and implementation of an initiative at one transplant center to annually assess psychosocial outcomes of living kidney donors. The current analysis focuses on a cohort of adults (n=208) who donated a kidney at BIDMC between September 2005 and August 2012, in which two post-donation annual assessments could be examined. One and two year post-donation surveys were returned by 59% (n=123) and 47% (n=98) of LKDs, respectively. Those who did not complete any survey were more likely to be younger (p=0.001), minority race/ethnicity (p<0.001), and uninsured at the time of donation (p=0.01) compared to those who returned at least one of the two annual surveys. The majority of donors reported no adverse physical or psychosocial consequences of donation, high satisfaction with the donation experience, and no donation decision regret. However, a sizable minority of donors felt more pain intensity than expected and recovery time was much slower than expected, and experienced a clinically significant decline in vitality. We describe how these outcomes are used to inform clinical practice at our transplant center as well as highlight challenges in donor surveillance over time. PMID:26123551

Studies on evaluating and removing subsurface damage on the ground surface of CLEARCERAM-Z HS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akitaya, Hiroshi; Yamashita, Takuya; Ohshima, Norio; Iye, Masanori; Maihara, Toshinori; Tokoro, Hitoshi; Takahashi, Keisuke

2010-07-01

We evaluated depth of subsurface damage on a ground surface of the ultra low expansion glass-ceramics CLEARCERAMR®-Z HS (CC-Z HS) by Ohara Inc., which is one of the candidates for material for segmented mirrors of the Thirty Meter Telescope. We made polishing spots of Magnetorheological Finishing on the ground surface of CC-Z HS and measured exposed subsurface damage features on the spot surface. We also studied on hydrofluoric acid etching of the CC-Z HS ground surface, which is expected to be an effective method to remove a subsurface damage layer compared with time-consuming polishing. We etched small ground surfaces of CC-Z HS and evaluated its uniformity.

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Advances in damage control resuscitation and surgery: implications on the organization of future military field forces

PubMed Central

Tien, Col Homer; Beckett, Maj Andrew; Garraway, LCol Naisan; Talbot, LCol Max; Pannell, Capt Dylan; Alabbasi, Thamer

2015-01-01

Medical support to deployed field forces is increasingly becoming a shared responsibility among allied nations. National military medical planners face several key challenges, including fiscal restraints, raised expectations of standards of care in the field and a shortage of appropriately trained specialists. Even so, medical services are now in high demand, and the availability of medical support may become the limiting factor that determines how and where combat units can deploy. The influence of medical factors on operational decisions is therefore leading to an increasing requirement for multinational medical solutions. Nations must agree on the common standards that govern the care of the wounded. These standards will always need to take into account increased public expectations regarding the quality of care. The purpose of this article is to both review North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) policies that govern multinational medical missions and to discuss how recent scientific advances in prehospital battlefield care, damage control resuscitation and damage control surgery may inform how countries within NATO choose to organize and deploy their field forces in the future. PMID:26100784

Dynamics and detection of laser induced microbubbles in the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Andreas; Ptaszynski, Lars; Stoehr, Hardo; Brinkmann, Ralf

2007-07-01

Selective Retina Treatment (SRT) is a new method to treat eye diseases associated with disorders of the RPE. Selective RPE cell damage is achieved by applying a train of 1.7 μs laser pulses at 527 nm. The treatment of retinal diseases as e.g. diabetic maculopathy (DMP), is currently investigated within clinical studies, however 200 ns pulse durations are under investigation. Transient micro bubbles in the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) are expected to be the origin of cell damage due to irradiation with laser pulses shorter than 50 μs. The bubbles emerge at the strongly absorbing RPE melanosomes. Cell membrane disruption caused by the transient associated volume increase is expected to be the origin of the angiographically observed RPE leakage. We investigate micro bubble formation and dynamics in porcine RPE using pulse durations of 150 ns. A laser interferometry system at 830 nm with the aim of an online dosimetry control for SRT was developed. Bubble formation was detected interferometrically and by fast flash photography. A correlation to cell damage observed with a vitality stain is found. A bubble detection algorithm is presented.

Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

2015-12-01

The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

Feeding damage to plants increases with plant size across 21 Brassicaceae species.

PubMed

Schlinkert, Hella; Westphal, Catrin; Clough, Yann; Ludwig, Martin; Kabouw, Patrick; Tscharntke, Teja

2015-10-01

Plant size is a major predictor of ecological functioning. We tested the hypothesis that feeding damage to plants increases with plant size, as the conspicuousness of large plants makes resource finding and colonisation easier. Further, large plants can be attractive to herbivores, as they offer greater amounts and ranges of resources and niches, but direct evidence from experiments testing size effects on feeding damage and consequently on plant fitness is so far missing. We established a common garden experiment with a plant size gradient (10-130 cm height) using 21 annual Brassicaceae species, and quantified plant size, biomass and number of all aboveground components (flowers, fruits, leaves, stems) and their proportional feeding damage. Plant reproductive fitness was measured using seed number, 1000 seed weight and total seed weight. Feeding damage to the different plant components increased with plant size or component biomass, with mean damage levels being approximately 30 % for flowers, 5 % for fruits and 1 % for leaves and stems. Feeding damage affected plant reproductive fitness depending on feeding damage type, with flower damage having the strongest effect, shown by greatly reduced seed number, 1000 seed weight and total seed weight. Finally, we found an overall negative effect of plant size on 1000 seed weight, but not on seed number and total seed weight. In conclusion, being conspicuous and attractive to herbivores causes greater flower damage leading to higher fitness costs for large plants, which might be partly counterbalanced by benefits such as enhanced competitive/compensatory abilities or more mutualistic pollinator visits.

Broadening GHG accounting with LCA: application to a waste management business unit.

PubMed

Fallaha, Sophie; Martineau, Geneviève; Bécaert, Valérie; Margni, Manuele; Deschênes, Louise; Samson, Réjean; Aoustin, Emmanuelle

2009-11-01

In an effort to obtain the most accurate climate change impact assessment, greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting is evolving to include life-cycle thinking. This study (1) identifies similarities and key differences between GHG accounting and life-cycle assessment (LCA), (2) compares them on a consistent basis through a case study on a waste management business unit. First, GHG accounting is performed. According to the GHG Protocol, annual emissions are categorized into three scopes: direct GHG emissions (scope 1), indirect emissions related to electricity, heat and steam production (scope 2) and other indirect emissions (scope 3). The LCA is then structured into a comparable framework: each LCA process is disaggregated into these three scopes, the annual operating activities are assessed, and the environmental impacts are determined using the IMPACT2002+ method. By comparing these two approaches it is concluded that both LCA and GHG accounting provide similar climate change impact results as the same major GHG contributors are determined for scope 1 emissions. The emissions from scope 2 appear negligible whereas emissions from scope 3 cannot be neglected since they contribute to around 10% of the climate change impact of the waste management business unit. This statement is strengthened by the fact that scope 3 generates 75% of the resource use damage and 30% of the ecosystem quality damage categories. The study also shows that LCA can help in setting up the framework for a annual GHG accounting by determining the major climate change contributors.

Guide to analyzing investment options using TWIGS.

Treesearch

Charles R Blinn; Dietmar W. Rose; Monique L. Belli

1988-01-01

Describes methods for analyzing economic return of simulated stand management alternatives in TWIGS. Defines and discusses net present value, equivalent annual income, soil expectation value, and real vs. nominal analyses. Discusses risk and sensitivity analysis when comparing alternatives.

Hybrid vehicle assessment. Phase 1: Petroleum savings analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levin, R.; Liddle, S.; Deshpande, G.; Trummel, M.; Vivian, H. C.

1984-01-01

The results of a comprehensive analysis of near term electric hybrid vehicles are presented, with emphasis on their potential to save significant amounts of petroleum on a national scale in the 1990s. Performance requirements and expected annual usage patterns of these vehicles are first modeled. The projected U.S. fleet composition is estimated, and conceptual hybrid vehicle designs are conceived and analyzed for petroleum use when driven in the expected annual patterns. These petroleum consumption estimates are then compared to similar estimates for projected 1990 conventional vehicles having the same performance and driven in the same patterns. Results are presented in the form of three utility functions and comparisons of sevral conceptual designs are made. The Hybrid Vehicle (HV) design and assessment techniques are discussed and a general method is explained for selecting the optimum energy management strategy for any vehicle mission battery combination. Conclusions and recommendations are presented, and development recommendations are identified.

Patterns of systemic lupus erythematosus expression in Europe.

PubMed

Cervera, R; Doria, A; Amoura, Z; Khamashta, M; Schneider, M; Guillemin, F; Maurel, F; Garofano, A; Roset, M; Perna, A; Murray, M; Schmitt, C; Boucot, I

2014-06-01

To analyse the differences in disease expression of European SLE patients based on gender, age at diagnosis, and ethnicity. A two-year, retrospective, multicentre, observational study was carried out in five countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK). Patients' clinical manifestations including disease activity, organ involvement, organ damage and flares were analysed. Thirty-one centres enrolled 412 consecutive eligible patients (90.5% of women), with active disease, stratified by disease severity (half severe and half non-severe). Baseline characteristics included; mean (SD) age: 43.3 (13.6) years, SLE duration: 10.7 (8.0) years and age at disease diagnosis: 32.6 (13.0) years old. The mean (SD) SELENA-SLEDAI and SLICC/ACR scores were: 8.1 (6.7) and 0.82 (1.36), respectively. Over half of patients experienced flares (54.9%). The average number of annual flares was 1.01 (0.71) flares/year. In males compared to females, the renal system was more frequently active (53.8% vs 30.0%, p=0.002), the mean SLICC/ACR score was higher (1.15 vs 0.79, p=0.039) and the pulmonary system was more likely to be damaged (12.8% vs 3.8%, p=0.010). Furthermore, patients diagnosed at younger age displayed more renal system activity (young: 56.3% vs adult: 33.4% vs elder: 8.9%, p<0.001) and renal damage (25.0% vs 6.9% vs 2.2%, p=0.018) compared to the others. The annual number of flares (1.13 vs 1.05 vs 0.81 flares/year, p<0.0001), including the occurrence of severe flares (0.58 vs 0.51 vs 0.20, p<0.0001), was also higher in these patients. Conversely, greater organ damage was observed in patients diagnosed at an older age compared to the others. The mean SLICC/ACR score was higher (1.31 vs young: 0.88 and adult: 0.78, p<0.001) in patients diagnosed in the older age groups. The pulmonary (13.3% vs younger: 0% vs adult: 3.7%, p=0.030) and cardiovascular (17.8% vs younger: 0% vs adult: 2.9%, p<0.001) systems were more frequently damaged in these patients. Black African descents showed greater disease activity compared to Caucasian patients. They flared more often (77.1% vs 48.6%, p=0.001) and experienced a greater number of annual flares (1.57 vs 0.89 flares/year, p<0.0001), mainly more severe flares (0.89 vs 0.38/year, p<0.0001). They also were more likely to experience renal system damage. The study showed clearly two patient subsets. The disease was the most active in Black African descents, and this phenomenon has never been described before in continental Europe. The disease was also more active in patients diagnosed at a younger or adult. Greater disease damage was observed in males and in patients diagnosed at an older age. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term impact of a leaf miner outbreak on the performance of quaking aspen

Treesearch

D. Wagner; P. Doak

2013-01-01

The aspen leaf miner, Phyllocnistis populiella Cham., has caused widespread and severe damage to aspen in the boreal forests of western North America for over a decade. We suppressed P. populiella on individual small aspen ramets using insecticide at two sites near Fairbanks, Alaska, annually for 7 years and compared plant...

Host resistance screening for balsam woolly adelgid: early results from 12 fir species

Treesearch

Leslie Newton; Fred Hain; John. Frampton

2011-01-01

Nearly all Fraser fir (Abies fraseri) Christmas trees produced in North Carolina need to be treated one or more times during their 5- to 10-year rotation to prevent or lessen damage caused by the exotic balsam woolly adelgid (BWA) (Adelges piceae Ratz.). These pesticide applications result in an annual cost to the industry...

Ultrasonic Inspection of Wooden Pallet Parts Using Time of Flight

Treesearch

Daniel L. Schmoldt; Robert M. Nelson; Robert J. Ross; Kent A. McDonald

1997-01-01

Wooden pallets are the largest single use of sawn hardwood logs in the USA. Unfortunately, millions of wooden pallets are discarded annually due to damage or because their low cost makes them readily disposable. In general, pallets are constructed from stringers and deckboards of random quality. Higher quality wooden pallets, however, can be built from higher quality...

Development of reference transcriptomes for the major insect pests of cowpea: a toolbox for insect pest management approaches in West Africa

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cowpea crops are widely cultivated and a major nutritional source of protein for indigenous human populations in West Africa. Annual yields and longevity of grain storage is greatly reduced by feeding damage caused by a complex of insect pests that include Anoplocnemis curvipes, Aphis craccivora, Cl...

Fumigant toxicity of essential oils to Reticulitermes flavipes

Treesearch

Carol A. Clausen; Vina W. Yang

2008-01-01

Subterranean termite infestations occur in every state in the contiguous United States and are responsible for damage to wooden structures in excess of two billion dollars (U.S.) annually. Essential oils have historically been used to repel insects. They have relatively low toxicity and some of them are exempt from regulation by the Federal Insecticide Fungicide and...

Cytological changes of Easter lily (Lilium longiflorum) upon root lesion nematode (Pratylenchus penetrans) infection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Lilium longiflorum cv. Nellie White, commonly known as Easter lily, is an important floral crop with an annual wholesale value of over $26 million in the U.S. The root lesion nematode (RLN), Pratylenchus penetrans, is a major pest of lily due to the significant root damage it causes. In this study w...

Brown-Spot Needle Blight of Pines

Treesearch

W.R. Phelps; A.G. Kais; T.H. Nicholls

1978-01-01

Brown-spot needle blight, caused by Scirrhia acicola (Dearn.) Siggers, delays growth and causes mortality of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.). Brown spot reduces total annual growth of southern pines by more than 16 million cubic feet (0.453 million cubic meters) of timber. Damage is most severe on longleaf seedlings in the grass stage; i.e., those that have not...

Ceramic transactions: Fractography of glasses and ceramics III. Volume 64

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Varner, J.R.; Frechette, V.D.; Quinn, G.D.

1996-12-31

Reports are presented from the Third Annual Conference on the Fractography of Glasses and Ceramics. Topics include ceramics fracture mode, damage analysis, defect origin, deformation, crack evolution, and the use of laser raman spectroscopy for analysis of residual surface strains. Individual projects have been processed separately for the United States Department of Energy databases.

Smoking Behavior, Attitudes of Second-Hand Smoke, and No-Smoking Policies on a University Campus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Polacek, Georgia N. L. Johnston; Atkins, Janet L.

2008-01-01

Smoking, when condoned as socially acceptable, overtly establishes such behavior as normal and risk-free. Scientific evidence verifies that cigarette smoking pervasively damages the body, causes early death, costs billions of dollars annually in medical care for smokers, and poses serious health risks to nonsmokers exposed to secondhand smoke. Yet…

Feasibility of Using a Caribbean Strain of the New World Screwworm for SIT Campaigns in Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The New World Screwworm (NWS) is one of the most damaging parasites of livestock in South America with annual losses of millions of dollars. Recently, Mercado Común del Sur countries demonstrated interest for the control of this pest by the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT). A pilot-project was conduct...

An annotated checklist of the Stomoxyini (Diptera: Muscidae) of the Levant with new records from Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Sinai Egypt

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Stomoxyini are obligate blood feeders and several members of the tribe, especially Stomoxys and Haematobia, are major pests of domestic livestock causing billions of U.S. dollars in damages annually. Therefore, USDA-CMAVE scientists and Israeli scientists worked cooperatively to survey the spec...

Biological control of coffee berry borer: the role of DNA-based gut-content analysis in assessment of predation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, is the most important pest of coffee worldwide, causing an estimated $500 million in damage annually. Infestation rates from 50-90% have been reported, significantly impacting coffee yields. Adult female H. hampei bore into the berry and lay eggs whose la...

Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.

Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimatemore » expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.« less

Meteor Shower Forecast Improvements from a Survey of All-Sky Network Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moorhead, Althea V.; Sugar, Glenn; Brown, Peter G.; Cooke, William J.

2015-01-01

Meteoroid impacts are capable of damaging spacecraft and potentially ending missions. In order to help spacecraft programs mitigate these risks, NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) monitors and predicts meteoroid activity. Temporal variations in near-Earth space are described by the MEO's annual meteor shower forecast, which is based on both past shower activity and model predictions. The MEO and the University of Western Ontario operate sister networks of all-sky meteor cameras. These networks have been in operation for more than 7 years and have computed more than 20,000 meteor orbits. Using these data, we conduct a survey of meteor shower activity in the "fireball" size regime using DBSCAN. For each shower detected in our survey, we compute the date of peak activity and characterize the growth and decay of the shower's activity before and after the peak. These parameters are then incorporated into the annual forecast for an improved treatment of annual activity.

Convective weather hazards in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.

This dissertation investigates the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, and their associated hazards, in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota. Using public severe weather reports databases and high spatial density rain gauge data, annual frequencies and return-periods are calculated for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flood-inducing rainfall. The hypothesis that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are less likely in the central TCMA than in surrounding areas also is examined, and techniques for estimating 100-year rainfall amounts are developed and discussed. This research finds that: (i) storms capable of significant damage somewhere within the TCMA recur annually (sometimes multiple times per year), while storms virtually certain to cause such damage recur every 2-3 years; (ii) though severe weather reports data are not amenable to classical comparative statistical testing, careful treatment of them suggests all types and intensity categories of severe convective weather have been and should continue to be approximately as common in the central TCMA as in surrounding areas; and (iii) applications of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics and areal analyses of rainfall data lead to significantly larger (25-50%) estimates of 100-year rainfall amounts in the TCMA and parts of Minnesota than those currently published and used for precipitation design. The growth of the TCMA, the popular sentiment that downtown areas somehow deter severe storms and tornadoes, and the prior underestimation of extreme rainfall thresholds for precipitation design, all act to enhance local susceptibility to hazards from severe convective storms.

Weather-Related Flood and Landslide Damage: A Risk Index for Italian Regions

PubMed Central

Messeri, Alessandro; Morabito, Marco; Messeri, Gianni; Brandani, Giada; Petralli, Martina; Natali, Francesca; Grifoni, Daniele; Crisci, Alfonso; Gensini, Gianfranco; Orlandini, Simone

2015-01-01

The frequency of natural hazards has been increasing in the last decades in Europe and specifically in Mediterranean regions due to climate change. For example heavy precipitation events can lead to disasters through the interaction with exposed and vulnerable people and natural systems. It is therefore necessary a prevention planning to preserve human health and to reduce economic losses. Prevention should mainly be carried out with more adequate land management, also supported by the development of an appropriate risk prediction tool based on weather forecasts. The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between weather types (WTs) and the frequency of floods and landslides that have caused damage to properties, personal injuries, or deaths in the Italian regions over recent decades. In particular, a specific risk index (WT-FLARI) for each WT was developed at national and regional scale. This study has identified a specific risk index associated with each weather type, calibrated for each Italian region and applicable to both annual and seasonal levels. The risk index represents the seasonal and annual vulnerability of each Italian region and indicates that additional preventive actions are necessary for some regions. The results of this study represent a good starting point towards the development of a tool to support policy-makers, local authorities and health agencies in planning actions, mainly in the medium to long term, aimed at the weather damage reduction that represents an important issue of the World Meteorological Organization mission. PMID:26714309

Weather-Related Flood and Landslide Damage: A Risk Index for Italian Regions.

PubMed

Messeri, Alessandro; Morabito, Marco; Messeri, Gianni; Brandani, Giada; Petralli, Martina; Natali, Francesca; Grifoni, Daniele; Crisci, Alfonso; Gensini, Gianfranco; Orlandini, Simone

2015-01-01

The frequency of natural hazards has been increasing in the last decades in Europe and specifically in Mediterranean regions due to climate change. For example heavy precipitation events can lead to disasters through the interaction with exposed and vulnerable people and natural systems. It is therefore necessary a prevention planning to preserve human health and to reduce economic losses. Prevention should mainly be carried out with more adequate land management, also supported by the development of an appropriate risk prediction tool based on weather forecasts. The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between weather types (WTs) and the frequency of floods and landslides that have caused damage to properties, personal injuries, or deaths in the Italian regions over recent decades. In particular, a specific risk index (WT-FLARI) for each WT was developed at national and regional scale. This study has identified a specific risk index associated with each weather type, calibrated for each Italian region and applicable to both annual and seasonal levels. The risk index represents the seasonal and annual vulnerability of each Italian region and indicates that additional preventive actions are necessary for some regions. The results of this study represent a good starting point towards the development of a tool to support policy-makers, local authorities and health agencies in planning actions, mainly in the medium to long term, aimed at the weather damage reduction that represents an important issue of the World Meteorological Organization mission.

Laser induced damage in optical materials: twelfth ASTM symposium.

PubMed

Bennett, H E; Glass, A J; Guenther, A H; Newnam, B

1981-09-01

The twelfth annual Symposium on Optical Materials for High Power Lasers (Boulder Damage Symposium) was held at the National Bureau of Standards in Boulder, Colorado, 30 Sept.-l Oct., 1980. The symposium was held under the auspices of ASTM Committee F-l, Subcommittee on Laser Standards, with the joint sponsorship of NBS, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Department of Energy, the Office of Naval Research, and the Air Force Office of Scientific research. Over 150 scientists attended the symposium, including representatives of the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and West Germany. The symposium was divided into sessions concerning materials and measurements, mirrors and surfaces, thin films, and finally fundamental mechanisms. As in previous years, the emphasis of the papers presented at the symposium was directed toward new frontiers and new developments. Particular emphasis was given to materials for high power systems. The wavelength range of prime interest was from 10.6 microm to the UV region. Highlights included surface characterization, thin film-substrate boundaries, and advances in fundamental laser-matter threshold interactions and mechanisms. The scaling of damage thresholds with pulse duration, focal area, and wavelength was discussed in detail. Harold E. Bennett of the Naval Weapons Center, Alexander J. Glass of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Arthur H. Guenther of the Air Force Weapons Laboratory, and Brian E. Newnam of the Los Alamos National Laboratory were cochairmen of the symposium. The thirteenth annual symposium is scheduled for 17-18 Nov. 1981 at the National Bureau of Standards, Boulder, Colorado.

Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change

DOE PAGES

Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah; ...

2015-08-09

Using a unique dataset for Indiana counties during the period 1995-2012, we estimate the effects of flood hazard, asset exposure, and social vulnerability on property damage. This relationship then is combined with the expected level of future flood risks to project property damage from flooding in 2030 under various scenarios. We compare these scenario projections to identify which risk management strategy offers the greatest potential to mitigate flooding loss. Results show that by 2030, county level flooding hazard measured by extreme flow volume and frequency will increase by an average of 16.2% and 7.4%, respectively. The total increase in propertymore » damages projected under different model specifications range from 13.3% to 20.8%. Across models future damages consistently exhibit the highest sensitivity to future increases in asset exposure, reinforcing the importance of non-structural measures in managing floodplain development.« less

Human activity and damaging landslides and floods on Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baioni, D.

2011-11-01

Over the last few decades, the island of Madeira has become an important offshore tourism and business center, with rapid economic and demographic development that has caused changes to the landscape due to human activity. In Madeira's recent history, there has been an increase over time in the frequency of occurrence of damaging landslide and flood events. As a result, the costs of restoration work due to damage caused by landslide and flood events have become a larger and larger component of Madeira's annual budget. Landslides and floods in Madeira deserve particular attention because they represent the most serious hazard to human life, to property, and to the natural environment and its important heritage value. The work reported on in this paper involved the analysis of historical data regarding damaging landslide and flood events on Madeira (in particular from 1941 to 1991) together with data on geological characteristics, topographic features, and climate, and from field observations. This analysis showed that the main factor triggering the occurrence of damaging landslide and flood events is rainfall, but that the increase in the number of damaging events recorded on Madeira Island, especially in recent times, seems to be related mostly to human activity, specifically to economic development and population growth, rather than to natural factors.

[Wildlife damage mitigation in agricultural crops in a Bolivian montane forest].

PubMed

Perez, Eddy; Pacheco, Luis F

2014-12-01

Wildlife is often blamed for causing damage to human activities, including agricultural practices and the result may be a conflict between human interests and species conservation. A formal assessment of the magnitude of damage is necessary to adequately conduct management practices and an assessment of the efficiency of different management practices is necessary to enable managers to mitigate the conflict with rural people. This study was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of agricultural management practices and controlled hunting in reducing damage to subsistence annual crops at the Cotapata National Park and Natural Area of Integrated Management. The design included seven fields with modified agricultural practices, four fields subjected to control hunting, and five fields held as controls. We registered cultivar type, density, frequency of visiting species to the field, crops lost to wildlife, species responsible for damage, and crop biomass. Most frequent species in the fields were Dasyprocta punctata and Dasypus novemcinctus. Hunted plots were visited 1.6 times more frequently than agriculturally managed plots. Crop lost to wildlife averaged 7.28% at agriculturally managed plots, 4.59% in plots subjected to hunting, and 27.61% in control plots. Species mainly responsible for damage were Pecari tajacu, D. punctata, and Sapajus apella. We concluded that both management strategies were effective to reduce damage by >50% as compared to unmanaged crop plots.

Compressive Microfracture and Indentation Damage in Al2O3.

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-08-30

lateral cracks produced during indentation loading is characterized in terms of microplasticity , and the particle velocity range over which the mechanism is expected to be operative is computed. (Author)

Statistical lamb wave localization based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harley, Joel B.

2018-04-01

Guided wave localization methods based on delay-and-sum imaging, matched field processing, and other techniques have been designed and researched to create images that locate and describe structural damage. The maximum value of these images typically represent an estimated damage location. Yet, it is often unclear if this maximum value, or any other value in the image, is a statistically significant indicator of damage. Furthermore, there are currently few, if any, approaches to assess the statistical significance of guided wave localization images. As a result, we present statistical delay-and-sum and statistical matched field processing localization methods to create statistically significant images of damage. Our framework uses constant rate of false alarm statistics and extreme value theory to detect damage with little prior information. We demonstrate our methods with in situ guided wave data from an aluminum plate to detect two 0.75 cm diameter holes. Our results show an expected improvement in statistical significance as the number of sensors increase. With seventeen sensors, both methods successfully detect damage with statistical significance.

The total lifetime costs of smoking.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Susanne R; Prescott, Eva; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Søgaard, Jes

2004-03-01

Net costs of smoking in a lifetime perspective and, hence, the economic interests in antismoking policies have been questioned. It has been proposed that the health-related costs of smoking are balanced by smaller expenditure due to shorter life expectancy. A dynamic (life cycle) method taking differences in life expectancy into account. Main outcome measures were direct and indirect lifetime health costs for ever-smokers and never-smokers, and cost ratios (ever-smokers to never-smokers). The estimations were based on annual disease rates of use of the healthcare services, smoking relative risks, smoking prevalences, and costs. Annual direct and indirect costs of ever-smokers were higher than for never-smokers in all age groups of both genders. The direct and indirect cost ratios were highest at age 45 for women, and at age 35 and 40 for men, respectively. Taking life expectancy differences into account, direct and indirect lifetime health costs for men aged 35, discounted by 5% per year were 66% and 83% higher in ever-smokers than in never-smokers. Corresponding results for women were 74% and 79%, respectively. The results are insensitive to a broad range of relative risk-estimates and discount rates including no discounting. Excess costs of ever-smokers disappear if the inclusion of smoking-related diseases is narrowed to that of previous studies. Smoking imposes costs to society even when taking life expectancy into consideration--both in direct and indirect costs.

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

PubMed

Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

2018-02-01

There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

Estimating unknown parameters in haemophilia using expert judgement elicitation.

PubMed

Fischer, K; Lewandowski, D; Janssen, M P

2013-09-01

The increasing attention to healthcare costs and treatment efficiency has led to an increasing demand for quantitative data concerning patient and treatment characteristics in haemophilia. However, most of these data are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to use expert judgement elicitation (EJE) to estimate currently unavailable key parameters for treatment models in severe haemophilia A. Using a formal expert elicitation procedure, 19 international experts provided information on (i) natural bleeding frequency according to age and onset of bleeding, (ii) treatment of bleeds, (iii) time needed to control bleeding after starting secondary prophylaxis, (iv) dose requirements for secondary prophylaxis according to onset of bleeding, and (v) life-expectancy. For each parameter experts provided their quantitative estimates (median, P10, P90), which were combined using a graphical method. In addition, information was obtained concerning key decision parameters of haemophilia treatment. There was most agreement between experts regarding bleeding frequencies for patients treated on demand with an average onset of joint bleeding (1.7 years): median 12 joint bleeds per year (95% confidence interval 0.9-36) for patients ≤ 18, and 11 (0.8-61) for adult patients. Less agreement was observed concerning estimated effective dose for secondary prophylaxis in adults: median 2000 IU every other day The majority (63%) of experts expected that a single minor joint bleed could cause irreversible damage, and would accept up to three minor joint bleeds or one trauma related joint bleed annually on prophylaxis. Expert judgement elicitation allowed structured capturing of quantitative expert estimates. It generated novel data to be used in computer modelling, clinical care, and trial design. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

MIT Lincoln Laboratory Annual Report 2011

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

under the Optical Processing Architecture at Lincoln ( OPAL ) program, for mission planning and data processing. SBSS will provide significant...exploitation, and dissemination. The ISR program is expected to continue to develop automated exploitation techniques and data- mining software tools for

Use of fiber reinforced concrete in bridge approach slabs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

Bridge approach slabs are deteriorating at a much faster rate than expected resulting in a massive need for repairs and premature replacement : costing millions of dollars annually. Both environmental and traffic loading causes the concrete to worsen...

VTLS Proceedings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheid, Barbara; And Others

1996-01-01

Includes five papers presented at the 1995 VTLS Inc. Fifth Annual Director's Conference in Roanoke (Virginia), entitled "Back to Basics: Rethinking Libraries." Topics include libraries' use of high technology, collection management and electronic publishing, public services and telecommuting clientele, what to expect of library school…

Glomerular and tubular damage markers in individuals with progressive albuminuria.

PubMed

Nauta, Ferdau L; Scheven, Lieneke; Meijer, Esther; van Oeveren, Wim; de Jong, Paul E; Bakker, Stephan J L; Gansevoort, Ron T

2013-07-01

Albuminuria is associated with risk for renal and cardiovascular disease. It is difficult to predict which persons will progress in albuminuria. This study investigated whether assessment of urinary markers associated with damage to different parts of the nephron may help identify individuals that will progress in albuminuria. Individuals were selected from a prospective community-based cohort study with serial follow-up and defined as "progressors" if they belonged to the quintile of participants with the most rapid annual increase in albuminuria, and reached an albuminuria ≥150 mg/d during follow-up. Patients with known renal disease or macroalbuminuria at baseline were excluded. Each progressor was matched to two control participants, based on baseline albuminuria, age, and sex. Furthermore, damage markers were measured in a separate set of healthy individuals. After a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 183 of 8394 participants met the criteria for progressive albuminuria. Baseline clinical characteristics were comparable between progressors and matched controls (n=366). Both had higher baseline albuminuria than the overall population. Urinary excretion of the glomerular damage marker IgG was significantly higher in progressors, whereas urinary excretion of proximal tubular damage markers and inflammatory markers was lower in these individuals compared with controls. Healthy individuals (n=109) had the lowest values for all urinary damage markers measured. These data suggest that albuminuria associated with markers of glomerular damage is more likely to progress, whereas albuminuria associated with markers of tubulointerstitial damage is more likely to remain stable.

Risk prediction of Critical Infrastructures against extreme natural hazards: local and regional scale analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosato, Vittorio; Hounjet, Micheline; Burzel, Andreas; Di Pietro, Antonio; Tofani, Alberto; Pollino, Maurizio; Giovinazzi, Sonia

2016-04-01

Natural hazard events can induce severe impacts on the built environment; they can hit wide and densely populated areas, where there is a large number of (inter)dependent technological systems whose damages could cause the failure or malfunctioning of further different services, spreading the impacts on wider geographical areas. The EU project CIPRNet (Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience Research Network) is realizing an unprecedented Decision Support System (DSS) which enables to operationally perform risk prediction on Critical Infrastructures (CI) by predicting the occurrence of natural events (from long term weather to short nowcast predictions, correlating intrinsic vulnerabilities of CI elements with the different events' manifestation strengths, and analysing the resulting Damage Scenario. The Damage Scenario is then transformed into an Impact Scenario, where punctual CI element damages are transformed into micro (local area) or meso (regional) scale Services Outages. At the smaller scale, the DSS simulates detailed city models (where CI dependencies are explicitly accounted for) that are of important input for crisis management organizations whereas, at the regional scale by using approximate System-of-Systems model describing systemic interactions, the focus is on raising awareness. The DSS has allowed to develop a novel simulation framework for predicting earthquakes shake maps originating from a given seismic event, considering the shock wave propagation in inhomogeneous media and the subsequent produced damages by estimating building vulnerabilities on the basis of a phenomenological model [1, 2]. Moreover, in presence of areas containing river basins, when abundant precipitations are expected, the DSS solves the hydrodynamic 1D/2D models of the river basins for predicting the flux runoff and the corresponding flood dynamics. This calculation allows the estimation of the Damage Scenario and triggers the evaluation of the Impact Scenario. The regional output of cascading effects can be used as an input model for more detailed analyses within urban areas for instance. The DSS weights the overall expected Crisis Scenario by also considering, through an appropriate Consequences Analysis, the number of citizens affected by the Service(s) outages, the expected economic losses of the major industrial activities hit by the unavailability of relevant Services (electricity, water, telecommunications etc.) and the influence of outages of the availability of Public Services (hospitals, schools, public offices etc.) [1] S.Giovinazzi, S. Lagomarsino: A macroseismic method for the vulnerability assessment of buildings. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, Canada (2004) [2] S. Lagomarsino, S.Giovinazzi: Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings. Bull Earthquake Eng., 4:415-443 (2006)

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably from 2 840 000 to 9 350 000 €, depending on the selected temporal scenario and the expected closing time of the potentially affected structures. The multi-disciplinary approach discussed in this study may assist local decision makers in determining the nature and magnitude of the expected losses due to a dangerous event, which can be anticipated in a given study area, during a specified time period. Besides, a preventive knowledge of the prospective physical effects and economic consequences may help local decision makers to choose the best prevention and mitigation options and to decide how to allocate resources properly, so that potential benefits are maximised at an acceptable cost.

Probabilistic Projections of Future Sea-Level Change and Their Implications for Flood Risk Management: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Horton, R. M.; Houser, T.; Little, C. M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Oppenheimer, M.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Strauss, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2014-12-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) rise projections are insufficient for adaptation planning; local decisions require local projections that characterize risk over a range of timeframes and tolerances. We present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We present complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling [1]. We illustrate the application of this framework by estimating the joint distribution of future sea-level change and coastal flooding, and associated economic costs [1,2]. In much of the world in the current century, differences in median LSL projections are due primarily to varying levels of non-climatic uplift or subsidence. In the 22nd century and in the high-end tails, larger ice sheet contributions, particularly from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS), contribute significantly to site-to-site differences. Uncertainty in GMSL and most LSL projections is dominated by the uncertain AIS component. Sea-level rise dramatically reshapes flood risk. For example, at the New York City (Battery) tide gauge, our projections indicate a likely (67% probability) 21st century LSL rise under RCP 8.5 of 65--129 cm (1-in-20 chance of exceeding 154 cm). Convolving the distribution of projected sea-level rise with the extreme value distribution of flood return periods indicates that this rise will cause the current 1.80 m `1-in-100 year' flood event to occur an expected nine times over the 21st century -- equivalent to the expected number of `1-in-11 year' floods in the absence of sea-level change. Projected sea-level rise for 2100 under RCP 8.5 would likely place 80-160 billion of current property in New York below the high tide line, with a 1-in-20 chance of losses >190 billion. Even without accounting for potential changes in storms themselves, it would likely increase average annual storm damage by 2.6-5.2 billion (1-in-20 chance of >7 billion). Projected increases in tropical cyclone intensity would further increase damages [2]. References: [1] R. E. Kopp et al. (2014), Earth's Future, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239. [2] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Managing Radiation Degradation of CCDs on the Chandra X-Ray Observatory--III

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Dell, Stephen L.; Aldcroft, Thomas L.; Blackwell, William C.; Bucher, Sabina L.; Chappell, Jon H.; DePasquale, Joseph M.; Grant, Catherine E.; Juda, Michael; Martin, Eric R.; Minow, Joseph I.;

An annual quasidifference approach to water price elasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, David R.; Griffin, Ronald C.

2008-08-01

The preferred price specification for retail water demand estimation has not been fully settled by prior literature. Empirical consistency of price indices is necessary to enable testing of competing specifications. Available methods of unbiasing the price index are summarized here. Using original rate information from several hundred Texas utilities, new indices of marginal and average price change are constructed. Marginal water price change is shown to explain consumption variation better than average water price change, based on standard information criteria. Annual change in quantity consumed per month is estimated with differences in climate variables and the new quasidifference marginal price index. As expected, the annual price elasticity of demand is found to vary with daily high and low temperatures and the frequency of precipitation.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-13

Members of the Disaster Assessment and Recovery Team (DART) work on flooring repairs to the Beach House at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The effort is part of the spaceport’s ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

Vulnerability and seismic damage scenarios for Barcelona (Spain) by using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lantada, N.; Pujades, L. G.; Barbat, A.

2003-04-01

An integrated GIS-based analysis (using ArcView GIS) is performed in order to estimate damage scenarios for VI, VII and VIII EMS-98 seismic intensities in Barcelona (Spain). The analysis of vulnerability and damage of individual buildings is performed according to a simplified method developed by Giovanazzi and Lagomarsino at the University of Genoa (Italy). An index of average vulnerability is associated to each building typology, which may be refined on the basis of behaviour modifiers. The index allows identification of an analytical relationship between seismic input (intensity) and damage, described by a binomial distribution. This methodology, which is based on the EMS-98 building typologies and preserves the compatibility with preceding methods, is applied to the two main residential building typologies of Barcelona, that is, unreinforced masonry and reinforced concrete buildings. Then, the specific residential buildings of Barcelona are classified in different groups characterized by a similar seismic behaviour. Therefore, all buildings belonging to each typology are cast in the most probable class according to vulnerability. In this way, the average vulnerability index is associated to each building typology of Barcelona and it is refined later on the basis of behaviour modifiers, linked to the number of stories, the year of construction and their state of maintenance. The ability of GIS tools to store, manage, analyse, and display the large amount of spatial and tabular data involved in this study allows to map average vulnerability indexes, and damage for the entire city. That is, vulnerability and damage scenarios. The obtained results show a high vulnerability and high expected seismic damage. For a VI degree of intensity, the maximum expected damage is in the range 15-30 % in the oldest zones of the city, the downtown, while for intensity VII it is in the range 45-60%. The developed GIS tool involves a friendly interface that allows new models and database information to be included in the same framework. As a new step to the seismic risk assessment, and in addition to the building characteristics, the destination of the building, as well as the essential buildings, and the density of population for census zones, have been included in the GIS database. Combining this information with the previous damage maps we will be able to obtain more complete damage scenarios including, deaths, injuries, and homeless.

Implementing Recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board: Development of On-Orbit IR Thermography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ottens, Brian P.; Parker, Bradford; Stephan, Ryan

2005-01-01

One of NASA's Space Shuttle Return-to-Flight (RTF) efforts has been to develop thermography for the on-orbit inspection of the Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) portion of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge (WLE). This paper addresses the capability of thermography to detect cracks in RCC by using in-plane thermal gradients that naturally occur on-orbit. Crack damage, which can result from launch debris impact, is a detection challenge for other on-orbit sensors under consideration for RTF, such as the Intensified Television Camera and Laser Dynamic Range Imager. We studied various cracks in RCC, both natural and simulated, along with material characteristics, such as emissivity uniformity, in steady-state thermography. Severity of crack, such as those likely and unlikely to cause burn through were tested, both in-air and in-vacuum, and the goal of this procedure was to assure crew and vehicle safety during reentry by identification and quantification of a damage condition while on-orbit. Expected thermal conditions are presented in typical shuttle orbits, and the expected damage signatures for each scenario are presented. Finally, through statistical signal detection, our results show that even at very low in-plane thermal gradients, we are able to detect damage at or below the threshold for fatality in the most critical sections of the WLE, with a confidence exceeding 1 in 10,000 probability of false negative.

Implementing Recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board - Development of on-Orbit RCC Thermography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ottens, Brian; Parker, Brad; Stephen, Ryan

2005-01-01

One of NASA s Space Shuttle Return-to-Flight (RTF) efforts has been to develop thermography for the on-orbit inspection of the Reinforced Carbon Carbon (RCC) portion of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge (WLE). This paper addresses the capability of thermography to detect cracks in RCC by using in-plane thermal gradients that naturally occur on-orbit. Crack damage, which can result from launch debris impact, is a detection challenge for other on-orbit sensors under consideration for RTF, such as the Intensified Television Camera and Laser Dynamic Range Imager. We studied various cracks in RCC, both natural and simulated, along with material characteristics, such as emissivity uniformity, in steady-state thermography. Severity of crack, such as those likely and unlikely to cause burn through were tested, both in-air and in-vacuum, and the goal of this procedure was to assure crew and vehicle safety during re-entry by identification and quantification of a damage condition while on-orbit. Expected thermal conditions are presented in typical shuttle orbits, and the expected damage signatures for each scenario are presented. Finally, through statistical signal detection, our results show that even at very low in-plane thermal gradients, we are able to detect damage at or below the threshold for fatality in the most critical sections of the WLE, with a confidence exceeding 1 in 10,000 probability of false negative.

Systemic insecticide and gibberellin reduced cone damage and increased flowering in a spruce seed orchard.

PubMed

Rosenberg, O; Almqvist, C; Weslien, J

2012-06-01

Insects feeding in conifer cones are difficult to control with nonsystemic insecticides. Newly developed systemic insecticides that can be injected into tree trunks may be a possible way of reducing both insect damage and negative side-effects to the surrounding environment, compared with conventional spraying. Several insecticides that could be injected into tree stems were tested on Picea abies (L.) Karst. In one experiment, insecticides (bifenthrin, deltamethrin, abamectin, and imidacloprid) were injected during flowering; in a second experiment two of these insecticides (abamectin and imidacloprid) were injected 1 yr before the expected flowering. In the second experiment insecticide treatment was also combined with treatments with the flower stimulating hormone, gibberellin (GA(4/7)). The only insecticide that reduced damage was abamectin, both after injection during flowering and after injection 1 yr before the expected flowering. Injections with GA(4/7) increased flowering and were as efficient as the conventional application method of drilling but abamectin was not effective in combination with the drilling method. There was no negative effect of the insecticide injections on seed quality. The injections were ineffective against the seed chalcid Megastigmus strobilobius (Ratzeburg), which was found to have an unexpected, negative effect on seed quality. Our results suggest that it may be possible to reduce damage from certain insect species, and to increase flowering by injecting abamectin and GA(4/7) in the year before a cone crop.

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

PubMed

Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

2018-06-01

Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2012-01-01

An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

Hydro-environmental changes and their influence on the subsurface environment in the context of urban development.

PubMed

Yoshikoshi, Akihisa; Adachi, Itsu; Taniguchi, Tomomasa; Kagawa, Yuichi; Kato, Masahiro; Yamashita, Akio; Todokoro, Taiko; Taniguchi, Makoto

2009-04-15

The relationship between urban development and hydro-environmental change, particularly with regard to the subsurface environment is examined for three coastal cities affected by Asian monsoons (Tokyo and Osaka in Japan, and Bangkok in Thailand). Major differences in subsurface changes among these cities are closely related to city size, urban structure, and the timing, stage and extent of urbanization as well as the natural environment. The work shows that the urban development has not affected the Bangkok subsurface hydro-environment in the same way it has in Tokyo and Osaka. Three reasons for the difference account for this, (1) Bangkok's abundant annual rainfall, (2) Bangkok has the smallest ratio of impervious pavement surface area, meaning that surface water can more easily infiltrate underground., (3) the degree and extent of urbanization. Bangkok's subsurface hydro-environment has not been heavily affected because underground development has not yet reached deep subterranean areas. By researching yet more cities, at different stages of urbanization to that of Tokyo, Osaka and Bangkok, we plan to quantitatively examine urbanization and its influence on subsurface hydro-environments. This research will help limit damage to developing cities that are not yet experiencing subsurface failures but which are expected to confront these problems in the future.

Risk to the public from carbon fibers released in civil aircraft accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

Because carbon fibers are strong, stiff, and lightweight, they are attractive for use in composite structures. Because they also have high electrical conductivity, free carbon fibers settling on electrical conductors can cause malfunctions. If released from the composite by burning, the fibers may become a hazard to exposed electrical and electronic equipment. As part of a Federal study of the potential hazard associated with the use of carbon fibers, NASA assessed the public risk associated with crash fire accidents of civil aircraft. The NASA study projected a dramatic increase in the use of carbon composites in civil aircraft and developed technical data to support the risk assessment. Personal injury was found to be extremely unlikely. In 1993, the year chosen as a focus for the study, the expected annual cost of damage caused by released carbon fibers is only $1000. Even the worst-case carbon fiber incident simulated (costing $178,000 once in 34,000 years) was relatively low-cost compared with the usual air transport accident cost. On the basis of these observations, the NASA study concluded that exploitation of composites should continue, that additional protection of avionics is unnecessary, and that development of alternate materials specifically to overcome this problem is not justified.

Earthquake Loss Assessment for the Evaluation of the Sovereign Risk and Financial Sustainability of Countries and Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardona, O. D.

2013-05-01

Recently earthquakes have struck cities both from developing as well as developed countries, revealing significant knowledge gaps and the need to improve the quality of input data and of the assumptions of the risk models. The quake and tsunami in Japan (2011) and the disasters due to earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Chile (2010), New Zealand (2011) and Spain (2011), only to mention some unexpected impacts in different regions, have left several concerns regarding hazard assessment as well as regarding the associated uncertainties to the estimation of the future losses. Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with sovereign risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. Therefore the use of robust risk models is a need to assess the future economic impacts, the country's fiscal responsibilities and the contingent liabilities for governments and to formulate, justify and implement risk reduction measures and optimal financial strategies of risk retention and transfer. Special attention should be paid to the understanding of risk metrics such as the Loss Exceedance Curve (empiric and analytical) and the Expected Annual Loss in the context of conjoint and cascading hazards.

Methodological Aspects of the Potential Use of Dendrochronological Techniques When Analyzing the Long-Term Impact of Tourism on Protected Areas.

PubMed

Ciapała, Szymon; Adamski, Paweł

2015-01-01

Intensification of pedestrian tourism causes damage to trees near tourist tracks, and likewise changes the soil structure. As a result, one may expect that annual amount of trees growing near tracks is significantly lower than deeper in the forest. However, during the study of the long-term impact of tourism on the environment (determined from tree increment dynamics), some methodological problems may occur. It is particularly important in protected areas where law and administrative regulations related to nature conservation force research to be conducted using small samples. In this paper we have analyzed the data collected in the Polish part of the Tatra National Park in the two study plots divided into two zones each: the area directly under the influence of the tourist's trampling and the control group. The aim of such analyses was to present the potential effects of the factors which may affect the results of dendrochronological analysis: (i) small size of samples that affects their representativeness, (ii) spatial differences in the rates of the process, as a result of spatial variability of environmental factors and (iii) temporal differences in the rates of the process. This study confirms that the factors mentioned above could significantly influence the results and should be taken into consideration during the analysis.

Desert wildfire and severe drought diminish survivorship of the long-lived Joshua Tree (Yucca brevifolia; Agavaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeFalco, L.A.; Esque, T.C.; Scoles-Sciulla, S. J.; Rodgers, J.

2010-01-01

Extreme climate events are transforming plant communities in the desert Southwest of the United States. Abundant precipitation in 1998 associated with El Ni??o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stimulated exceptional alien annual plant production in the Mojave Desert that fueled wildfires in 1999. Exacerbated by protracted drought, 80% of the burned Yucca brevifolia, a long-lived arborescent monocot, and 26% of unburned plants died at Joshua Tree National Park by 2004. Many burned plants < 1 m tall died immediately, and survival of all but the tallest, oldest plants declined to the same low level by 2004. Postfire sprouting prolonged survival, but only at the wetter, high-elevation sites. During succeeding dry years, herbaceous plants were scarce, and individuals of Thomomys bottae (pocket gopher) gnawed the periderm and hollowed stems of Y. brevifolia causing many of them to topple. Thomomys bottae damage reduced plant survivorship at low-elevation, unburned sites and diminished survival of burned plants in all but the driest site, which already had low survival. Accentuated ENSO episodes and more frequent wildfires are expected for the desert Southwest and will likely shift Y. brevifolia population structure toward tall, old adults with fewer opportunities for plant recruitment, thus imperiling the persistence of this unique plant community.

Effects of exogenous hormones on spermatogenesis in the male prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus).

PubMed

Foreman, D

1998-01-01

Male prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) breed anually and have complete testicular regression. Changes in the seminiferous tubules during the annual cycle have been described recently (Foreman, 1997). This is the first description of spermatogenesis in such a species. The definition of tubular stages during the cycle allows for evaluation of the effects of exogenous hormones, hemicastration, and hemicryptorchidism on spermatogenesis during the annual cycle. Hemicastration was performed during stages of the annual cycle to determine effects of exogenous hormones on remaining testes. Hemicryptorchidism was also done during stages of the annual cycle. FSH, LH, and testosterone were given in high and low doses for short- or long-term treatment periods during stages of the annual cycle. Testicular weights and counts of cell types in tubules of control and treated testes were made on testis tissues. Hemicastration during the out-of-season period does not cause compensatory hypertrophy of the remaining testis, but during recrudescence, hypertrophy of the remaining testis occurs. Hemicastration does not prevent loss of weight by the remaining testis during regression. The seminiferous epithelium of hemicryptorchid prairie dog testes shows damage during spermatogenic activity but not during testicular inactivity. Similarly, hemicryptorchid 15-day-old rat testes do not show damage from hemicryptorchidism. Long-term treatment with FSH preparations during testicular inactivity increased testis weights, spermatogonial proliferation, and spermatocyte differentiation in conjunction with Sertoli cell differentiation. Short-term treatments with low doses increased spermatogonial proliferation and abnormal meiotic activity. Both long- and short-term treatments with LH caused increased sloughing of germ cells and stimulated Leydig and Sertoli cells. Testosterone propionate injections stimulated Sertoli secretions but not Leydig cell activity. Hemicastration during inactivity does not stimulate gonadotropin secretion. Hemicryptorchidism does not affect tubular morphology during inactivity in either rats or prairie dogs. Prompt responses to FSH depend on scrotal location of the testis. FSH has its major effects on germ cell proliferation and differentiation, both directly and through activation of Sertoli cells, whereas LH affects Sertoli and Leydig cell activation but has no effect on germ cell activity. Testosterone activates Sertoli cells.

Alcohol Outcome Expectancies as Socially Shared and Socialized Beliefs

PubMed Central

Donovan, John E.; Molina, Brooke S. G.; Kelly, Thomas M.

2008-01-01

Alcohol expectancies are important predictors of alcohol involvement in both adolescents and adults, yet little research has examined the social origins and transmission of these beliefs. This paper examined alcohol outcome expectancies collected in a cohort-sequential longitudinal study of 452 families with children followed over seven waves. Children completed interviews every six months, and parents completed interviews annually. Eighteen of 27 alcohol expectancies were highly consensual, being endorsed by significantly more than 67% of the mothers and fathers. These consensual expectancies were also highly stable over a 3-year period. Over the same period, children increased their adoption of both the positive and negative consensual alcohol expectancies. Unconditional latent growth modeling showed that piece-wise growth models with a transition at age 12 fit the data best. Both the positive and negative consensual expectancies were adopted at a faster rate between ages 8.5 and 11.5 than between ages 12 and 13.5. For negative expectancies, there was no further growth between ages 12 and 13.5. Taken together, these findings support the conceptualization of alcohol outcome expectancies as socially-shared and transmitted beliefs. PMID:19586141

14 CFR 170.13 - Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) establishment criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... the present value of the ATCT life cycle benefits (BPV) to the present value of ATCT life cycle costs... traffic during the expected life of the tower facility. (An FAA annual count is a fiscal year or a...

14 CFR 170.13 - Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) establishment criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... the present value of the ATCT life cycle benefits (BPV) to the present value of ATCT life cycle costs... traffic during the expected life of the tower facility. (An FAA annual count is a fiscal year or a...

14 CFR 170.13 - Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) establishment criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... the present value of the ATCT life cycle benefits (BPV) to the present value of ATCT life cycle costs... traffic during the expected life of the tower facility. (An FAA annual count is a fiscal year or a...

14 CFR 170.13 - Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) establishment criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... the present value of the ATCT life cycle benefits (BPV) to the present value of ATCT life cycle costs... traffic during the expected life of the tower facility. (An FAA annual count is a fiscal year or a...

The benefits auditor and the detective.

PubMed

Gerver, Howard

2003-09-01

As health care grows more complex, the ability to discover overpayments has grown equally challenging. Given the high cost of health care and the expected annual trend of approximately 15% for the next several years, stopping profit losses is critical in any organization.

State of the Lab Address

ScienceCinema

King, Alex

2018-05-07

In his third-annual State of the Lab address, Ames Laboratory Director Alex King called the past year one of "quiet but strong progress" and called for Ames Laboratory to continue to build on its strengths while responding to changing expectations for energy research.

Presentation of Institutional Results Reports, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Illinois State Board of Higher Education, Springfield.

"The Illinois Commitment: Partnerships, Opportunities, and Excellence" requires an annual submission of a Results Report from higher education institutions and agencies to provide evidence of progress toward the six statewide goals: economic growth, teaching and learning, affordability, access and diversity, high expectations and…

State of the Lab Address

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, Alex

2010-01-01

In his third-annual State of the Lab address, Ames Laboratory Director Alex King called the past year one of "quiet but strong progress" and called for Ames Laboratory to continue to build on its strengths while responding to changing expectations for energy research.

Towards the Development of a Defensive Cyber Damage and Mission Impact Methodology

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

212 Strategic Accountability Reporting......................................................... 212 Periodic Asset Valuation...cannot account the value of the organization’s most important asset—its information. The assumption that technology is an equitable substitute for...can be severe; accounting for more than 80 percent of annual losses in some organizations as shown in Figure 2 below. In a military environment where

Statement of Facts for 1977 City-Wide Mock Trial Competitions. Walker Thomas v. Sam Nomad.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Inst. for Citizen Education in the Law, Washington, DC.

Prepared by the District of Columbia Street Law Project for its annual city-wide mock trial competition, this instructional handout provides material for a civil case over an automobile accident. Walker Thomas is suing Sam Nomad for damages that resulted from a collision, for which both parties blame the other. The handout clarifies the laws and…

Pesticides Used in Forestry and Their Impacts on Water Quality

Treesearch

J.L. Michael

2001-01-01

Approximately 2.1 billion kg active ingredient (a.i.) of pesticides are used in the US annually. Of the 890 a.i.s registered, 20 account for more than 95% of the pesticide used in forest vegetation management. Forest vegetation management, in the broader context, includes such activities as plant protection from animal, insect, bacterial, and fimgal damage. It also...

A droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) assay to detect Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in bulk trap samples

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Moths in the genus Helicoverpa are some of the most important agricultural pests in the world. Two species, H. armigera (Hübner) and H. zea (Boddie), cause the majority of damage to crops and millions of dollars are spent annually on control of these pests. The recent introduction of H. armigera int...

Evaluating alternative prescribed burning policies to reduce net economic damages from wildfire

Treesearch

D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; John M. Pye

2007-01-01

We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity-weighted risk and use it in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate welfare changes from alternative prescribed burning policies. Using Volusia County, Florida as a case study, an annual prescribed burning rate of 13% of all forest lands maximizes net welfare; ignoring the effects on...

Precision Strike Annual Programs Review

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-11

Deceleration and Stabilization Subsystem Squib Fire Unit Thermal Battery Electronic Safe and Arm Device Air Data Sensor Main ChargeControl Actuator Power ...platforms, and ground teams. • Powered , maneuverable, small, lightweight, accurate and lethal, with reduced risk of collateral damage. Raytheon Missile...requirements evolve, so will capability • Builds on powerful infrastructure • “Color of Money” timing is very different Traditional Approach Traditional IOC

Large-Scale Assessment of Invasiveness and Potential for Ecological Impact by Nonnative Tree Species.

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William D. Smith

2012-01-01

Biological invasions represent one of the most significant environmental threats to the maintenance of natural forest ecosystems in North America and elsewhere (Liebhold and others 1995), and have been estimated to cause more than $100 billion annually in damage and control costs (Pimentel and others 2000). However, these costs do not take into account the economic...

Implications of research on lodgepole pine introduction in interior Alaska.

Treesearch

John N. Alden

1988-01-01

Growth, winter injury, and mortality were evaluated for 12-year-old trees of 11 subarctic lodgepole pine provenances and a jack pine provenance at Fairbanks, Alaska. Provenances from northeast British Columbia grew more than 0.003 cubic meter of wood per tree annually from 9 to 12 years after outplanting. The species sustained snow damage and winter injury, however,...

Fire effects on tree overstories in the oak savannas of the Southwestern Borderlands Region

Treesearch

Peter F. Ffolliott; Gerald J. Gottfried; Cody L. Stropki; Hui Chen; Daniel G. Neary

2011-01-01

Effects of cool-season and warm-season prescribed burning treatments and a wildfire on tree overstories in oak savannas on the Cascabel Watersheds of the Southwestern Borderlands Region are reported in this paper. Information on the initial survival, levels of crown damage, species compositions and densities, annual growth rates, and basal sprouting following these...

Frequency of comandra blister rust infection episodes on lodgepole pine

Treesearch

William R. Jacobi; Brian W. Geils; Jane E. Taylor

2002-01-01

Comandra blister rust is a damaging canker disease of lodgepole pine in the Central Rocky Mountains. Our knowledge of previous blister rust outbreaks and the effects of weather and climate on rust epidemiology has not been sufficient to explain the frequency and severity of disease outbreaks. Thus, we sought to describe the seasonal and annual frequency and duration of...

Comparing production function models for wildfire risk analysis in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2005-01-01

Wildfires create damages in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that total hundreds of millions of dollars annually in the United States. Understanding how fires are produced in built-up areas near and within fire prone landscapes requires evaluating and quantifling the roles that humans play in fire regimes. We outline a typology of wildfire production functions (WPFs...

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

PubMed Central

Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S.

2017-01-01

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5. PMID:28028223

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation.

PubMed

Melvin, April M; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J; Marchenko, Sergey S

2017-01-10

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.

Disasters as a necessary part of benefit-cost analyses.

PubMed

Mark, R K; Stuart-Alexander, D E

1977-09-16

Benefit-cost analyses for water projects generally have not included the expected costs (residual risk) of low-probability disasters such as dam failures, impoundment-induced earthquakes, and landslides. Analysis of the history of these types of events demonstrates that dam failures are not uncommon and that the probability of a reservoir-triggered earth-quake increases with increasing reservoir depth. Because the expected costs from such events can be significant and risk is project-specific, estimates should be made for each project. The cost of expected damage from a "high-risk" project in an urban area could be comparable to project benefits.

Seismic vulnerability: theory and application to Algerian buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mebarki, Ahmed; Boukri, Mehdi; Laribi, Abderrahmane; Farsi, Mohammed; Belazougui, Mohamed; Kharchi, Fattoum

2014-04-01

When dealing with structural damages, under the effect of natural hazards such as earthquakes, it is still a scientific challenge to predict the potential damages, before occurrence of a given hazard, as well as to evaluate the damages once the earthquake has occurred. In the present study, two distinct methods addressing these topics are developed. Thousands (˜54,000) of existing buildings damaged during the Boumerdes earthquake that occurred in Algeria (Mw = 6.8, May 21, 2003) are considered in order to study their accuracy and sensitivity. Once an earthquake has occurred, quick evaluations of the damages are required in order to distinguish which structures should be demolished or evacuated immediately from those which can be kept in service without evacuation of its inhabitants. For this purpose, visual inspections are performed by trained and qualified engineers. For the case of Algeria, an evaluation form has been developed and is still in use since the early 80s: Five categories of damages are considered (no damage or very slight, slight, moderate, major, and very severe/collapse). This paper develops a theoretical methodology that processes the observed damages caused to the structural and nonstructural components (foundations, roofs, slabs, walls, beams, columns, fillings, partition walls, stairways, balconies, etc.), in order to help the evaluator to derive the global damage evaluation. This theoretical methodology transforms the damage category into a corresponding "residual" risk of failure ranging from zero (no damage) to one (complete damage). The global failure risk, in fact its corresponding damage category, is then derived according to given combinations of probabilistic events in order to express the influence of any component on the global damage and behavior. The method is calibrated on a set of ˜54,000 buildings inspected after Boumerdes earthquake. Almost 80 % of accordance (same damage category) is obtained, when comparing the theoretical results to the observed damages. For pre-earthquake analysis, the methodology widely used around the world relies on the prior calibration of the seismic response of the structures under given expected scenarios. As the structural response is governed by the constitutive materials and structural typology as well as the seismic input and soil conditions, the damage prediction depends intimately on the accuracy of the so-called fragility curve and response spectrum established for each type of structure (RC framed structures, confined or unconfined masonry, etc.) and soil (hard rock, soft soil, etc.). In the present study, the adaptation to Algerian buildings concerns the specific soil conditions as well as the structural dynamic response. The theoretical prediction of the expected damages is helpful for the calibration of the methodology. Thousands (˜3,700) of real structures and the damages caused by the earthquake (Algeria, Boumerdes: Mw = 6.8, May 21, 2003) are considered for the a posteriori calibration and validation process. The theoretical predictions show the importance of the elastic response spectrum, the local soil conditions, and the structural typology. Although the observed and predicted categories of damage are close, it appears that the existing form used for the visual damage inspection would still require further improvements, in order to allow easy evaluation and identification of the damage level. These methods coupled to databases, and GIS tools could be helpful for the local and technical authorities during the post-earthquake evaluation process: real time information on the damage extent at urban or regional scales as well as the extent of losses and the required resources for reconstruction, evacuation, strengthening, etc.

24 CFR 35.115 - Exemptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... apply if a child less than age 6 resides or is expected to reside in the dwelling unit (see definitions... life, health or safety, or to protect property from further structural damage (such as when a property...

24 CFR 35.115 - Exemptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... apply if a child less than age 6 resides or is expected to reside in the dwelling unit (see definitions... life, health or safety, or to protect property from further structural damage (such as when a property...

Dirty air costs growers $500 million in crop losses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tintori, K.A.

Air pollution damage to ornamental plants and crops, already costing the nation more than $500 million in losses yearly, is steadily increasing. California is one of the hardest hit areas with an annual loss of about $125 million. In metropolitan areas of Southern California, photochemical smog has made it impossible to raise orchids and growers have had to relocate in remote rural areas. Smog damage is now reported in 27 states, the District of Columbia, Canada and Mexico. The pollutants most easy to identify are five toxic gases: sulfur dioxide, ozone, peroxyacetyl nitrate, ethylene, and fluorides. The symptoms of eachmore » type of pollutant injury are described. 2 figures, 1 table.« less

Measuring radiation damage dynamics by pulsed ion beam irradiation: 2016 project annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kucheyev, Sergei O.

2017-01-04

The major goal of this project is to develop and demonstrate a novel experimental approach to access the dynamic regime of radiation damage formation in nuclear materials. In particular, the project exploits a pulsed-ion-beam method in order to gain insight into defect interaction dynamics by measuring effective defect interaction time constants and defect diffusion lengths. For Year 3, this project had the following two major milestones: (i) the demonstration of the measurement of thermally activated defect-interaction processes by pulsed ion beam techniques and (ii) the demonstration of alternative characterization techniques to study defect dynamics. As we describe below, both ofmore » these milestones have been met.« less

1994 Accident sequence precursor program results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belles, R.J.; Cletcher, J.W.; Copinger, D.A.

1996-01-01

The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program involves the systematic review and evaluation of operational events that have occurred at light-water reactors to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core damage accident sequences. The results of the ASP Program are published in an annual report. The most recent report, which contains the analyses of the precursors for 1994, is NUREG/CR-4674, Vols. 21 and 22, Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1994, A Status Report, published in December 1995. This article provides an overview of the ASP review and evaluation process and a summary of the results for 1994. 12more » refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Loss Control and Collimation for the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkhardt, H.

2005-06-01

The total energy stored in the LHC is expected to reach 360 Mega Joule, which is about two orders of magnitude higher than in HERA or the Tevatron. Damage and quench protection in the LHC require a highly efficient and at the same time very robust collimation system. The currently planned system, the status of the project and the expected performance of the collimation system from injection up to operation with colliding beams will be presented.

Fast response of Scots pine to improved water availability reflected in tree-ring width and delta 13C.

PubMed

Eilmann, Britta; Buchmann, Nina; Siegwolf, Rolf; Saurer, Matthias; Cherubini, Paolo; Rigling, Andreas

2010-08-01

Drought-induced forest decline, like the Scots pine mortality in inner-Alpine valleys, will gain in importance as the frequency and severity of drought events are expected to increase. To understand how chronic drought affects tree growth and tree-ring delta(13)C values, we studied mature Scots pine in an irrigation experiment in an inner-Alpine valley. Tree growth and isotope analyses were carried out at the annual and seasonal scale. At the seasonal scale, maximum delta(13)C values were measured after the hottest and driest period of the year, and were associated with decreasing growth rates. Inter-annual delta(13)C values in early- and latewood showed a strong correlation with annual climatic conditions and an immediate decrease as a response to irrigation. This indicates a tight coupling between wood formation and the freshly produced assimilates for trees exposed to chronic drought. This rapid appearance of the isotopic signal is a strong indication for an immediate and direct transfer of newly synthesized assimilates for biomass production. The fast appearance and the distinct isotopic signal suggest a low availability of old stored carbohydrates. If this was a sign for C-storage depletion, an increasing mortality could be expected when stressors increase the need for carbohydrate for defence, repair or regeneration.

Optimization under variability and uncertainty: a case study for NOx emissions control for a gasification system.

PubMed

Chen, Jianjun; Frey, H Christopher

2004-12-15

Methods for optimization of process technologies considering the distinction between variability and uncertainty are developed and applied to case studies of NOx control for Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle systems. Existing methods of stochastic optimization (SO) and stochastic programming (SP) are demonstrated. A comparison of SO and SP results provides the value of collecting additional information to reduce uncertainty. For example, an expected annual benefit of 240,000 dollars is estimated if uncertainty can be reduced before a final design is chosen. SO and SP are typically applied to uncertainty. However, when applied to variability, the benefit of dynamic process control is obtained. For example, an annual savings of 1 million dollars could be achieved if the system is adjusted to changes in process conditions. When variability and uncertainty are treated distinctively, a coupled stochastic optimization and programming method and a two-dimensional stochastic programming method are demonstrated via a case study. For the case study, the mean annual benefit of dynamic process control is estimated to be 700,000 dollars, with a 95% confidence range of 500,000 dollars to 940,000 dollars. These methods are expected to be of greatest utility for problems involving a large commitment of resources, for which small differences in designs can produce large cost savings.

EPA Solicits Proposals for the Field Implementation Meeting Support Cooperative Agreement

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s Office of Pesticide Programs is soliciting applications for cooperative agreements to manage a Field Implementation Meetings Support program. EPA expects to provide up to $500,000 annually, depending on the Agency’s budget, for a total of

KSC-08pd1888

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-07-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Crews remove bricks from the damaged walls of the flame trench on Launch Pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. Damage to the trench occurred during the launch of Discovery on the STS-124 mission. A 75- by 20-foot section of the east wall was destroyed and debris scattered as far as the pad perimeter fence. Repairs are expected to be completed before the targeted Oct. 8 launch of Atlantis on the STS-125 mission. Photo credit: NASA/Jack Pfaller

KSC-08pd1889

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-07-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Crews remove bricks from the damaged walls of the flame trench on Launch Pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. Damage to the trench occurred during the launch of Discovery on the STS-124 mission. A 75- by 20-foot section of the east wall was destroyed and debris scattered as far as the pad perimeter fence. Repairs are expected to be completed before the targeted Oct. 8 launch of Atlantis on the STS-125 mission. Photo credit: NASA/Jack Pfaller

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-13

Members of the Disaster Assessment and Recovery Team (DART) repair a section of roof atop the Operations Support Building II at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The effort is part of the spaceport’s ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-13

Tubing provides ventilation through boarded-up windows on the Operations Support Building II at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Members of the Disaster Assessment and Recovery Team (DART) are working on repairs to the facility following Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-13

Members of the Disaster Assessment and Recovery Team (DART) work on repairs to the Operations Support Building II at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The effort is part of the spaceport’s ongoing recovery from Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-13

Roofing materials, blown loose by Hurricane Matthew, are visible on the ground below the deck of the Beach House at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Members of the Disaster Assessment and Recovery Team (DART) are working on repairs to the facility following Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

DART Support for Hurricane Matthew

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-13

Roofing materials, blown loose by Hurricane Matthew, lie on the ground behind the Beach House at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Members of the Disaster Assessment and Recovery Team (DART) are working on repairs to the facility following Hurricane Matthew, which passed to the east of Kennedy on Oct. 6 and 7, 2016. The center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected.

Analysis of Navy radome failure problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tatnall, G. J.; Foulke, K.

1974-01-01

A survey of radome failure problems in military aircraft under actual operating conditions was conducted. The aircraft were operating from aircraft carriers in the Pacific Ocean. Critical problem areas were identified and a plan was developed for failure prevention. The development and application of repair kits for correcting the erosion damage are reported. It is stated that the rain erosion damage survey established a strong justification for qualification testing of all materials and designs which may have questionable life expectancy on the aircraft.

Damage control and intramedullary nailing for long bone fractures in polytrauma patients.

PubMed

Patka, Peter

2017-06-01

The early fracture treatment in patients with multiple injuries should be focused on damage control. The fracture type and its location, local soft tissue condition as well as the patient's physiological condition shall determine the time and type of fracture treatment. Prevention of local and systemic complications must be immediately considered and included in the treatment planning. The use of external fixator (ExFix), which will be replaced by IM-implants in most cases at a later stage, provides adequate temporary fracture stabilization with less collateral damage. Good clinical results can be expected in patients with long bone fractures if the principles of damage control surgery are applied and local complications are prevented through proper reduction, firm fixation, early soft tissue reconstruction, and early rehabilitation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study on MFL based wire rope damage detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Kim, J.-W.; Kim, J.; Park, S.

2017-04-01

Non-destructive testing on wire rope is in great demand to prevent safety accidents at sites where many heavy equipment using ropes are installed. In this paper, a research on quantification of magnetic flux leakage (MFL) signals were carried out to detect damages on wire rope. First, a simulation study was performed with a steel rod model using a finite element analysis (FEA) program. The leakage signals from the simulation study were obtained and it was compared for parameter: depth of defect. Then, an experiment on same conditions was conducted to verify the results of the simulation. Throughout the results, the MFL signal was quantified and a wire rope damage detection was then confirmed to be feasible. In further study, it is expected that the damage characterization of an entire specimen will be visualized as well.

Analysis of cavitation damage on the Space Shuttle main engine high pressure oxidizer turbopump

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stinebring, D. R.

1985-01-01

The performance of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME) has met or exceeded specifications. However, the durability for selected components has not met the desired lifetime criteria. Thus, the High-Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (HPOTP) has experienced cavitation erosion problems in a number of locations in the pump. An investigation was conducted, taking into account an analysis of the cavitation damage, the development of a flow model for the pump, and the recommendation of design changes which would increase the life expectancy of the unit. The present paper is concerned with the cavitation damage analysis. A model is presented which relates the heavy damage on the housing and over the inducer blades to unsteady blade surface cavitation. This cavitation occurs on the inducer blades in the wakes downstream of the pump inlet housing vanes.

Hurricane Matthew Recovery Briefing with Center Director Bob Cabana

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

In the Press Site auditorium of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, NASA officials speak to media about efforts to recover from Hurricane Matthew. From the left are Mike Curie of NASA Communications, Center Director Bob Cabana and Bob Holl, chief of the Kennedy Damage Assessment and Recovery Team. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Ride-out Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

OBJECT KINETIC MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS OF RADIATION DAMAGE IN BULK TUNGSTEN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nandipati, Giridhar; Setyawan, Wahyu; Heinisch, Howard L.

2015-09-22

We used our recently developed lattice based OKMC code; KSOME [1] to carryout simulations of radiation damage in bulk W. We study the effect of dimensionality of self interstitial atom (SIA) diffusion i.e. 1D versus 3D on the defect accumulation during irradiation with a primary knock-on atom (PKA) energy of 100 keV at 300 K for the dose rates of 10-5 and 10-6 dpa/s. As expected 3D SIA diffusion significantly reduces damage accumulation due to increased probability of recombination events. In addition, dose rate, over the limited range examined here, appears to have no effect in both cases of SIAmore » diffusion.« less

Hurricane Matthew Recovery Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

In the Press Site auditorium of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, NASA officials speak to media about efforts to recover from Hurricane Matthew. From the left are Mike Curie of NASA Communications, Center Director Bob Cabana and Bob Holl, chief of the Kennedy Damage Assessment and Recovery Team. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Ride-out Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Hurricane Matthew Recovery Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

In the Press Site auditorium of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, NASA officials speak to media about efforts to recover from Hurricane Matthew. From the left are Bob Holl, chief of the Kennedy Damage Assessment and Recovery Team, Center Director Bob Cabana and Mike Curie of NASA Communications. Officials determined that the center received some isolated roof damage, damaged support buildings, a few downed power lines, and limited water intrusion. Beach erosion also occurred, although the storm surge was less than expected. NASA closed the center ahead of the storm’s onset and only a small team of specialists known as the Ride-out Team was on the center as the storm approached and passed.

Chemical Stimulation of Lightwood in Southern Pines.

Treesearch

Jack Stubbs; Donald R. Roberts; Kenneth W. Outcalt

1984-01-01

A summary of research findings on the use of paraquat to produce resin soaking or bole xylem tissue in southern pines.Concentrations of paraquat, methods of application, expected yields, and likelihood of insect damage after treatment are recommended.

Fatigue reliability of steel highway bridge details.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

The expected life of a steel highway bridge subjected to random, variable-amplitude traffic cycles is highly dependent on damage accumulation caused by various fatigue mechanisms. This study addressed some of the issues associated with developing pro...

49 CFR 806.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... designated. One of the following classifications will be shown: (1) Top secret means information, the... expected to cause serious damage to national security. (3) Confidential means information, the unauthorized... an event which would eliminate the need for continued classification. ...

49 CFR 806.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... designated. One of the following classifications will be shown: (1) Top secret means information, the... expected to cause serious damage to national security. (3) Confidential means information, the unauthorized... an event which would eliminate the need for continued classification. ...

49 CFR 806.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... designated. One of the following classifications will be shown: (1) Top secret means information, the... expected to cause serious damage to national security. (3) Confidential means information, the unauthorized... an event which would eliminate the need for continued classification. ...

49 CFR 806.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... designated. One of the following classifications will be shown: (1) Top secret means information, the... expected to cause serious damage to national security. (3) Confidential means information, the unauthorized... an event which would eliminate the need for continued classification. ...

Rockfall vulnerability assessment for masonry buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavrouli, Olga

2015-04-01

The methodologies for the quantitative risk assessment vary in function of the application scale and the available data. For fragmental rockfalls, risk calculation requires data for the expected damage of the exposed elements due to potential rock block impacts with a range of trajectories, magnitudes and intensities. Although the procedures for the quantification of the rock block characteristics in terms of magnitude-frequency relationships are well established, there are few methodologies for the calculation of the vulnerability, and these are usually empirical or judgmental. The response of buildings to rock block impacts using analytical methods has been mainly realised so far for reinforced concrete buildings, and some fragility curves have been calculated with the results, indicating the potential damage for a range of rock block characteristics. Masonry buildings, as a common structural typology in mountainous areas, are in many cases impacted by rock blocks during rockfalls. Their response presents some peculiarities in comparison with reinforced-concrete structures given the non-homogeneity and variability of the compound materials (blocks and mortar), their orthotropy, low strength in tension, the statically indeterminate load-bearing system and the non-monolithic connections. To this purpose, analytical procedures which are specifically adapted to masonry structures should be used for the evaluation of the expected damage due to rock impacts. In this contribution we discuss the application of the analytical approach for the assessment of the expected damage in rockfall prone areas and the simulation assumptions that can be made concerning the materials, geometry, loading and the relevant simplifications. The amount of uncertainties introduced during their analytical simulation is high due to the dispersion of the data for material mechanical properties and the construction techniques and quality and thus a probabilistic assessment is suggested. The random nature of the rockfall as far as it concerns the magnitude and the intensity of the rock blocks can also be introduced using parametric analyses.

Optimal Hedging Rule for Reservoir Refill Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, W.; Zhao, J.; Lund, J. R.; Zhao, T.; Lei, X.; Wang, H.

2015-12-01

This paper develops an optimal reservoir Refill Hedging Rule (RHR) for combined water supply and flood operation using mathematical analysis. A two-stage model is developed to formulate the trade-off between operations for conservation benefit and flood damage in the reservoir refill season. Based on the probability distribution of the maximum refill water availability at the end of the second stage, three zones are characterized according to the relationship among storage capacity, expected storage buffer (ESB), and maximum safety excess discharge (MSED). The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the model show that the optimality of the refill operation involves making the expected marginal loss of conservation benefit from unfilling (i.e., ending storage of refill period less than storage capacity) as nearly equal to the expected marginal flood damage from levee overtopping downstream as possible while maintaining all constraints. This principle follows and combines the hedging rules for water supply and flood management. A RHR curve is drawn analogously to water supply hedging and flood hedging rules, showing the trade-off between the two objectives. The release decision result has a linear relationship with the current water availability, implying the linearity of RHR for a wide range of water conservation functions (linear, concave, or convex). A demonstration case shows the impacts of factors. Larger downstream flood conveyance capacity and empty reservoir capacity allow a smaller current release and more water can be conserved. Economic indicators of conservation benefit and flood damage compete with each other on release, the greater economic importance of flood damage is, the more water should be released in the current stage, and vice versa. Below a critical value, improving forecasts yields less water release, but an opposing effect occurs beyond this critical value. Finally, the Danjiangkou Reservoir case study shows that the RHR together with a rolling horizon decision approach can lead to a gradual dynamic refilling, indicating its potential for practical use.

Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davison, Matt; Kim, Daero; Keller, Harald

2011-11-01

In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia.

PubMed

Aragão, Luiz Eduardo O C; Malhi, Yadvinder; Barbier, Nicolas; Lima, Andre; Shimabukuro, Yosio; Anderson, Liana; Saatchi, Sassan

2008-05-27

Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19000km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.

Woody plant establishment in grassed reclamation areas of the Athabasca oil sands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedkenheuer, A.W.

1980-12-01

The primary end land use for areas disturbed by the Syncrude Canada Ltd. oil sands surface mining venture is forest cover. Short term erosion control is of concern, however, and this results in the early establishment of a grass and legume cover. Problems have subsequently been encountered in attempts to establish woody plants in the grass and legume cover. Vegetation competition for soil moisture and nutrients and rodent damage to woody seedlings have been the major problem areas. A study was initiated in 1978 to evaluate methods of manipulating the grass and legume cover sufficiently to improve success rates inmore » establishing a variety of shrubs and trees. Five replicated treatments using the chemical herbicide glyphosate, soil scarification and fire alone plus soil scarification were established on an area seeded to grass and legumes in spring 1976. Woody plant survival and rodent damage, populations and distribution are being assessed annually in spring and fall. Rodent damage to woody seedlings was heavy in fall 1978 with 80 percent of the deciduous seedlings on non-scarified plots being damaged. In June 1979, 98 percent of the deciduous plants on the control and herbicide treatment areas were damaged. Damage to conifers was approximately 30 percent less during this time. Prescribed burning and mechanical scarification substantially reduced rodent damage. Seedling survival was variable with Amelanchier alnifolia, Pinus contorta and Populus tremuloides consistently exhibiting the highest survival rates.« less