Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

2016-12-01

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

EPA Science Inventory

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, S.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable in the future due to climate change coupled with rapid urbanization. Thus, protecting future groundwater resources under the impact of urbanization and climate change is necessary towards more sustainable groundwater resource development. This study is intended to shed lights on how water managers may plan for the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater quality. A new approach is presented in which the groundwater vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is employed as a constraint to urban expansion. An original form of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) and a revised LTM simulation are applied to model the urbanization. The results indicated that there would be a notable and uneven urban growth between 2010 and 2050. Future groundwater vulnerability is expected to shift significantly under future climate change scenarios. The results of the revised LTM project more urban expansion in the central regions of China, while those of the original LTM project urban expansion in throughout China, although the two projections have the same areas of expansion. The urban expansion simulated by the original LTM follows the historical trend under the drivers of socioeconomic, political and geographic factors. However, the revised LTM drives the urban expansion to the regions with relatively lower groundwater vulnerability, in contrast to the historical trend. This study demonstrates that the integration of LTM and future groundwater vulnerability in the urban planning can better protect the groundwater resource and promote more sustainable socioeconomic development. The methodology developed in this study provides water managers and city planners a useful groundwater management tool for mitigating the risks associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.

The climatic and hydrologic history of southern Nevada during the late Quaternary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forester, R.M.; Bradbury, J.P.; Carter, C.

Understanding climate change during the expected life span of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, requires estimates of future climate boundary conditions. These climate boundary conditions are governed by changes in the Earth's orbital properties (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) that determine insolation. Subcycles of the 400,000 year insolation-controlled climate cycles last approximately 100,000 years. This report describes the changes which have occurred in the climatic history of Southern Nevada during the past 400,000 years. These changes provide a basis for understanding the changes which may occur during the long-term future in this area.

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency.

PubMed

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-06-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-06-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat ( Triticum aestivum L .) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-02-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watersheds using SWAT model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrat...

Impacts of Seed Dispersal on Future Vegetation Structure under Changing Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Prinn, R. G.

2011-12-01

As the impacts between land cover change, future climates and ecosystems are expected to be substantial, there are growing needs for improving the capability of simulating the global vegetation structure and landscape as realistically as possible. Current DGVMs assume ubiquitous availability of seeds and do not consider any seed dispersal mechanisms in plant migration process, which may influence the assessment of impacts to the ecosystem that rely on the vegetation structure changes (i.e., change in albedo, runoff, and terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity). This study incorporates time-varying wind-driven seed dispersal (i.e., the SEED configuration) as a dynamic constraint to the migration process of natural vegetation in the Community Land Model (CLM)-DGVM. The SEED configuration is validated using a satellite-derived tree cover dataset. Then the configuration is applied to project future vegetation structures and their implications for carbon fluxes, albedo, and hydrology under two climate mitigation scenarios (No-policy vs. 450ppm CO2 stabilization) for the 21st century. Our results show that regional changes of vegetation structure under changing climates are expected to be significant. For example, Alaska and Siberia are expected to experience substantial shifts of forestry structure, characterized by expansion of needle-leaf boreal forest and shrinkage of C3 grass Arctic. A suggested vulnerability assessment shows that vegetation structures in Alaska, Greenland, Central America, southern South America, East Africa and East Asia are susceptible to changing climates, regardless of the two climate mitigation scenarios. Regions such as Greenland, Tibet, South Asia and Northern Australia, however, may substantially alleviate their risks of rapid change in vegetation structure, given a robust greenhouse gas stabilization target. Proliferation of boreal forests in the high latitudes is expected to amplify the warming trend (i.e., a positive feedback to climate), if no mitigation policy is implemented. In contrast, under the 450ppm scenario, vegetation structure may buffer the warming trend, which is a negative feedback to climate. Moreover, runoff changes due to vegetation shifts may offset or complement runoff changes under anthropogenic climate warming.

Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

PubMed Central

Hof, Anouschka R.; Jansson, Roland; Nilsson, Christer

2012-01-01

Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. PMID:23285098

The futures of climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, Sean

2017-01-01

This piece examines the need to interrogate the role of the conceptions of the future, as embedded in academic papers, policy documents, climate models, and other artifacts that serve as currencies of the science-society interface, in shaping scientific and policy agendas in climate engineering. Growing bodies of work on framings, metaphors, and models in the past decade serve as valuable starting points, but can benefit from integration with science and technology studies work on the sociology of expectations, imaginaries, and visions. Potentially valuable branches of work to come might be the anticipatory use of the future: the design of experimental spaces for exploring the future of an engineered climate in service of responsible research and innovation, and the integration of this work within the unfolding context of the Paris Agreement.

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

2011-01-01

The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

Emissions versus climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is likely to offset some of the improvements in air quality expected from reductions in pollutant emissions. A comprehensive analysis of future air quality over North America suggests that, on balance, the air will still be cleaner in coming decades.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Hydro-climatic simulation of Spring Creek Basin under dynamic C02 atmospheric concentration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate factors monitoring have indicated that global atmospheric C02 concentration rose in the past, and further rise should be expected in the future as indicated by projections. SWAT is a hydro-climatic distributed model used to assess the efficiency of agricultural and land use best management p...

Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: A case of Jordan.

PubMed

Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto; Al Khatib, Amal N; Allouzi, Siham F

2018-01-01

Different aspects of climate change, such as increased temperature, changed rainfall and higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration, all have different effects on crop yields. Process-based crop models are the most widely used tools for estimating future crop yield responses to climate change. We applied APSIM crop simulation model in a dry Mediterranean climate with Jordan as sentinel site to assess impact of climate change on wheat production at decadal level considering two climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact of climatic variables alone was negative on grain yield but this adverse effect was negated when elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were also considered in the simulations. Crop cycle of wheat was reduced by a fortnight for RCP4.5 scenario and by a month for RCP8.5 scenario at the approach of end of the century. On an average, a grain yield increase of 5 to 11% in near future i.e., 2010s-2030s decades, 12 to 16% in mid future i.e., 2040s-2060s decades and 9 to 16% in end of century period can be expected for moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and 6 to 15% in near future, 13 to 19% in mid future and 7 to 20% increase in end of century period for a drastic climate change scenario (RCP8.5) based on different soils. Positive impact of elevated CO 2 is more pronounced in soils with lower water holding capacity with moderate increase in temperatures. Elevated CO 2 had greater positive effect on transpiration use efficiency (TUE) than negative effect of elevated mean temperatures. The change in TUE was in near perfect direct relationship with elevated CO 2 levels (R 2 >0.99) and every 100-ppm atmospheric CO 2 increase resulted in TUE increase by 2kgha -1 mm -1 . Thereby, in this environment yield gains are expected in future and farmers can benefit from growing wheat. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vegetation dynamics associated with changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate in hardwood forests of Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, USA.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Belyazid, S; Sullivan, T J; Bell, M; Clark, C; Blett, T; Evans, T; Cass, W; Hyduke, A; Sverdrup, H

2018-06-01

Ecological effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition on two hardwood forest sites in the eastern United States were simulated in the context of a changing climate using the dynamic coupled biogeochemical/ecological model chain ForSAFE-Veg. The sites are a mixed oak forest in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (Piney River) and a mixed oak-sugar maple forest in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee (Cosby Creek). The sites have received relatively high levels of both S and N deposition and the climate has warmed over the past half century or longer. The model was used to evaluate the composition of the understory plant communities, the alignment between plant species niche preferences and ambient conditions, and estimate changes in relative species abundances as reflected by plant cover under various scenarios of future atmospheric N and S deposition and climate change. The main driver of ecological effects was soil solution N concentration. Results of this research suggested that future climate change might compromise the capacity for the forests to sustain habitat suitability. However, vegetation results should be considered preliminary until further model validation can be performed. With expected future climate change, preliminary estimates suggest that sustained future N deposition above 7.4 and 5.0 kg N/ha/yr is expected to decrease contemporary habitat suitability for indicator plant species located at Piney River and Cosby Creek, respectively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources, however the potential economic implications of these needs have not been ...

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; Pearce, Tristan

2010-01-01

This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

A blueprint for using climate change predictions in an eco-hydrological study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2009-12-01

There is a growing interest to extend climate change predictions to smaller, catchment-size scales and identify their implications on hydrological and ecological processes. Small scale processes are, in fact, expected to mediate climate changes, producing local effects and feedbacks that can interact with the principal consequences of the change. This is particularly applicable, when a complex interaction, such as the inter-relationship between the hydrological cycle and vegetation dynamics, is considered. This study presents a blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the catchment scale. Climate conditions, present or future, are imposed through input hydrometeorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models. These variables are simulated with an hourly weather generator as an outcome of a stochastic downscaling technique. The generator is parameterized to reproduce the climate of southwestern Arizona for present (1961-2000) and future (2081-2100) conditions. The methodology provides the capability to generate ensemble realizations for the future that take into account the heterogeneous nature of climate predictions from different models. The generated time series of meteorological variables for the two scenarios corresponding to the current and mean expected future serve as input to a coupled hydrological and vegetation dynamics model, “Tethys-Chloris”. The hydrological model reproduces essential components of the land-surface hydrological cycle, solving the mass and energy budget equations. The vegetation model parsimoniously parameterizes essential plant life-cycle processes, including photosynthesis, phenology, carbon allocation, and tissue turnover. The results for the two mean scenarios are compared and discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity The need to account for uncertainties in projections of future climate is discussed and a methodology for propagating these uncertainties into the probability density functions of changes in eco-hydrological variables is presented.

Effects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Brisco, Brian; Mrnaghan, Kevin; Rover, Jennifer R.; Long, Jordan

2014-01-01

A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and GSN relationship and represent performance departures from expected performance conditions. These performance data were used to monitor successional events following fire. Results suggested that maximum EPA occurs 30–40 years following fire, and deciduous stands generally have higher EPA than coniferous stands. Mean undisturbed EEP is projected to increase 5.6% by 2040 and 8.7% by 2070, suggesting an increased deciduous component in boreal forests. Our results contribute to the understanding of boreal forest successional dynamics and its response to climate change. This information enables informed decisions to prepare for, and adapt to, climate change in the Yukon River Basin forest.

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of current building practices holding up under future climate change, we recommend using our methods and results to make modifications and adaptations to existing buildings and to aid in the design of future buildings.

Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate.

PubMed

Blankespoor, Brian; Dasgupta, Susmita; Lange, Glenn-Marie

2017-05-01

Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10  % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and GDP worth roughly US $400 million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233  %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar.

Climate, wildfire, and erosion ensemble foretells more sediment in western USA watersheds

Treesearch

Joel B. Sankey; Jason Kreitler; Todd J. Hawbaker; Jason L. McVay; Mary Ellen Miller; Erich R. Mueller; Nicole M. Vaillant; Scott E. Lowe; Temuulen T. Sankey

2017-01-01

The area burned annually by wildfires is expected to increase worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, which can increase sedimentation in downstream rivers and reservoirs. However, which watersheds will be impacted by future wildfires is largely unknown. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show...

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

Treesearch

E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; F.S. III Chapin; S. Yi; C.C. Thompson

2009-01-01

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in...

Climate change effects in El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico, and the Caribbean region

Treesearch

Lisa Nicole Jennings; Jamison Douglas; Emrys Treasure; Grizelle González

2014-01-01

Understanding the current and expected future conditions of natural resources under a changing climate is essential to making informed management decisions. However, the ever increasing volume of useful scientific information about climate change makes it difficult for managers and planners to effectively sort through and apply the emerging science. This report...

A method for modeling the effects of climate and land use changes on erosion and sustainability of soil in a Mediterranean watershed (Languedoc, France).

PubMed

Paroissien, Jean-Baptiste; Darboux, Frédéric; Couturier, Alain; Devillers, Benoît; Mouillot, Florent; Raclot, Damien; Le Bissonnais, Yves

2015-03-01

Global climate and land use changes could strongly affect soil erosion and the capability of soils to sustain agriculture and in turn impact regional or global food security. The objective of our study was to develop a method to assess soil sustainability to erosion under changes in land use and climate. The method was applied in a typical mixed Mediterranean landscape in a wine-growing watershed (75 km(2)) within the Languedoc region (La Peyne, France) for two periods: a first period with the current climate and land use and a second period with the climate and land use scenarios at the end of the twenty-first century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B future rainfall scenarios from the Météo France General circulation model was coupled with four contrasting land use change scenarios that were designed using a spatially-explicit land use change model. Mean annual erosion rate was estimated with an expert-based soil erosion model. Soil life expectancy was assessed using soil depth. Soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy were combined into a sustainability index. The median simulated soil erosion rate for the current period was 3.5 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 273 years, showing a low sustainability of soils. For the future period with the same land use distribution, the median simulated soil erosion rate was 4.2 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 249 years. The results show that soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy are more sensitive to changes in land use than to changes in precipitation. Among the scenarios tested, institution of a mandatory grass cover in vineyards seems to be an efficient means of significantly improving soil sustainability, both in terms of decreased soil erosion rates and increased soil life expectancies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abrupt Climate Change: the View from the Past, the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. W. C.

2014-12-01

Climate is changing as humans put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. With CO2 levels today around 400ppm, we are clearly committed to far more climate change, both in the near term, and well beyond our children's future. A key question is how that change will occur. Abrupt climate changes are those that exceed our expectations, preparedness, and ability to adapt. Such changes challenge us economically, physically, and socially. This talk will draw upon results from ice core research over the past twenty years, as well as a new NRC report on abrupt climate change in order to address abrupt change, as seen in the past in ice cores, as seen today in key environmental systems upon which humans depend, and what is may be coming in the future.

Estimation of climate change impact on dead fuel moisture at local scale by using weather generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Bortolu, Sara; Dubrovsky, Martin; Arca, Bachisio; Ventura, Andrea; Duce, Pierpaolo

2015-04-01

The moisture content of dead fuel is an important variable in fire ignition and fire propagation. Moisture exchange in dead materials is controlled by physical processes, and is clearly dependent on atmospheric changes. According to projections of future climate in Southern Europe, changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme events are expected. More prolonged drought seasons could influence fuel moisture content and, consequently, the number of days characterized by high ignition danger in Mediterranean ecosystems. The low resolution of the climate data provided by the general circulation models (GCMs) represents a limitation for evaluating climate change impacts at local scale. For this reason, the climate research community has called to develop appropriate downscaling techniques. One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking a stochastic weather generator with the climate model outputs. Weather generators linked to climate change scenarios can therefore be used to create synthetic weather series (air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation) representing present and future climates at local scale. The main aims of this work are to identify useful tools to determine potential impacts of expected climate change on dead fuel status in Mediterranean shrubland and, in particular, to estimate the effect of climate changes on the number of days characterized by critical values of dead fuel moisture. Measurements of dead fuel moisture content (FMC) in Mediterranean shrubland were performed by using humidity sensors in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for six years. Meteorological variables were also recorded. Data were used to determine the accuracy of the Canadian Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFM code) in modelling moisture dynamics of dead fuel in Mediterranean vegetation. Critical threshold values of FFM code for Mediterranean climate were identified by percentile analysis, and new fuel moisture code classes were also defined. A stochastic weather generator (M&Rfi), linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs), was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Western Sardinia, Italy. The number of days with critical FFM code values for present and future climate were calculated and the potential impact of future climate change was analysed.

Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

Interaction between Soil Moisture and Air Temperature in the Mississippi River Basin

EPA Science Inventory

Increasing air temperatures are expected to continue in the future. The relation between soil moisture and near surface air temperature is significant for climate change and climate extremes. Evaluation of the relations between soil moisture and temperature was performed by devel...

Future tendencies of climate indicators important for adaptation and mitigation strategies in forestry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galos, Borbala; Hänsler, Andreas; Gulyas, Krisztina; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel

2014-05-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts in the forestry sector, especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where forests are vulnerable and sensitive to the increasing probability and severity of climatic extremes, especially to droughts. For providing information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options for the Carpathian basin, a GIS-supported Decision Support System is under development. This study focuses on the future tendencies of climate indicators that determine the distribution, growth, health status and production of forests as well as the potential pests and diseases. For the analyses the climate database of the Decision Support System has been applied, which contains daily time series for precipitation and temperature means and extremes as well as derived climate indices for 1961-2100. For the future time period, simulation results of 12 regional climate models are included (www.ensembles-eu.org) based on the A1B emission scenario. The main results can be summarized as follows: · The projected change of the climate indices (e.g. total number of hot days, frost days, dry days, consecutive dry periods) and forestry indices (e.g. Ellenberg climate quotient, Forestry aridity index; Tolerance index for beech) indicates the warming and drying of the growing season towards the end of the 21st century. These can have severe consequences on the ecosystem services of forests. · The climatic suitable area of the native tree species is projected to move northwards and upwards in the mountains, respectively. For beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) this shift would mean the drastic shrink of the distribution area in the analyzed region. · The characteristic climate conditions that are expected in the Carpathian basin in the second half of the century, are now located southeastern from the case study region. In this way, the potential future provenance regions can be determined. Results provide input for the climate impact analyses and build an important basis of the future adaptation strategies in forestry, agriculture and water management. Funding: The research is supported by the TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0013 and TÁMOP-4.1.1.C-12/1/KONV-2012-0012 (ZENFE) joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate indices, climate change impacts, forestry, regional climate modelling

Integrating climate change into the state wildlife action plans: Biological responses to climate impacts with a focus on Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morelli, Toni Lyn; DeLuca, William; Ellison, Colton; Jane, Stephen F.; Matthews, Stephen

2015-01-01

This chapter reviews the responses to climate change on the 367 Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) identified by the Northeast Fish and Wildlife Diversity Technical Committee (NEFWDTC), technical experts from states’ natural resource agencies (Appendix 3.1). These species were chosen based on their conservation status, listing in SWAPs, and the percentage of their range that occurs in the Northeast. The objectives of this chapter are to: summarize how regional biodiversity has already responded and is expected to respond to climate change; summarize information on specific RSGCN species responses to climate change to date and anticipated under future scenarios; characterize the greatest uncertainties about how biodiversity and RSGCN species will respond to climate change in the future; and highlight where other factors are expected to exacerbate the effects of climate change. This information was obtained through a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature, primarily using the ISI Web of Knowledge to search for papers on each species related to “climate”, “temperature”, or “precipitation”. Although we undoubtedly missed some sources, the following allows us to review some of the ways climate change will affect regional species of conservation concern

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

2018-01-01

The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

[Confronting the Health-Related Challenges of Climate Change: Nursing Education for the Future].

PubMed

Wu, Pei-Chih; Lee, Chi-Chen

2016-08-01

Climate change is the greatest threat to public health in the 21st century. The increasing health impact of heat waves, the increasing magnitudes and spatial expansions of vector and water-borne diseases epidemics, and the increasing medical burdens of biological allergic illnesses, worsening local air pollution, and other related issues are expected to continue to increase in severity in the near future. All of these issues are global problems that must be faced. Adaptation strategies and action plans related to climate change are needed and emerging. Moreover, integrating the basic concepts, scientific evidences, and new technology into public and professional education systems is already recognized as a priority in the national adaptation program. Nurses stand on the frontlines of medical care and health communication. The integration of climate change and adaptation to climate change into nursing education and training is become increasingly important. This article reviews both the expected health impacts of climate change and the mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been proposed / adopted by medical care facilities around the world. Further, we outline the current, priority needs for action in medical care facilities in Taiwan in order to mitigate and adapt to climate-change-related healthcare issues. Additionally, we present an integrated strategic plan for educating healthcare professionals, including nurse, in the future. We hope that the ideas that are presented in this paper encourage multidisciplinary cooperation and help bridge the gap between technology development and practical application in Taiwan's medical care system.

Towards a regional climate model coupled to a comprehensive hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, S. H.; Drews, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Butts, M. B.; Jensen, K. H.; Refsgaard, J.; Hydrological ModellingAssessing Climate Change Impacts At Different Scales (Hyacints)

2010-12-01

When planing new ground water abstractions wells, building areas, roads or other land use activities information about expected future groundwater table location for the lifetime of the construction may be critical. The life time of an abstraction well can be expected to be more than 50 years, while if for buildings may be up to 100 years or more. The construction of an abstraction well is expensive and it is important to know if clean groundwater is available for its expected life time. The future groundwater table is depending on the future climate. With climate change the hydrology is expected to change as well. Traditionally, this assessment has been done by driving hydrological models with output from a climate model. In this way feedback between the groundwater hydrology and the climate is neglected. Neglecting this feedback can lead to imprecise or wrong results. The goal of this work is to couple the regional climate model HIRHAM (Christensen et al. 2006) to the hydrological model MIKE SHE (Graham and Butts, 2006). The coupling exploits the new OpenMI technology that provides a standardized interface to define, describe and transfer data on a time step basis between software components that run simultaneously (Gregersen et al., 2007). HIRHAM runs on a UNIX platform whereas MIKE SHE and OpenMI are under WINDOWS. Therefore the first critical task has been to develop an effective communication link between the platforms. The first step towards assessing the coupled models performance are addressed by looking at simulated land-surface atmosphere feedback through variables such as evapotranspiration, sensible heat flux and soil moisture content. Christensen, O.B., Drews, M., Christensen, J.H., Dethloff, K., Ketelsen, K., Hebestadt, I. and Rinke, A. (2006) The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model. Version 5; DMI Scientific Report 0617. Danish Meteorological Institute. Graham, D.N. and Butts, M.B. (2005) Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE, In Watershed Models, (Eds. V.P. Singh & D.K. Frevert) CRC Press. Pages 245-272, ISBN: 0849336090. Gregersen, J.B., Gijsbers, P.J.A. and Westen, S.J.P. (2007) OpenMI: Open modelling interface. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 09.3, 175191. doi: 10.2166/hydro.2007.023.

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.

PubMed

Kissling, W D; Field, R; Korntheuer, H; Heyder, U; Böhning-Gaese, K

2010-07-12

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Rainwater harvesting possibility under climate change: A basin-scale case study over western province of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Balkhair, Khaled S.; Şen, Zekâi; Masood, Amjad

2017-06-01

Groundwater reservoirs are important water resources all over the world. Especially, they are of utmost significance for arid and semi-arid regions, and therefore, a sustainable exploitation of these reservoirs needs to be ensured. The natural and most exclusive water supplier to groundwater reservoirs in Saudi Arabia is rainfall, which is characterized by sporadic and random temporal and spatial distributions, particularly under the impacts of climate change; giving rise to uncertainty in groundwater recharge quantification. Although in Saudi Arabia, intense and frequent rainfall events are rare, but they generate significant flash floods with huge amounts of surface water. Under such circumstances, any simple but effective water storage augmentation facility such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) structures gain vital importance for sustainability of water supply and survivals in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study is to explore the possibility of RWH over a basin in the western province of Saudi Arabia called Wadi Al-Lith under climate change. Climatic data is obtained from the IPCC AR5 GCMs, which is further downscaled using a regional climate model RegCM4 for the Arabian Peninsula domain. The RegCM4 is driven to simulate climatic parameters including rainfall at 25 km grid resolution for the present climate (1971-2000), and future climate (2006-2099) with representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicate that more durable and longer wet durations are expected with increasing surplus rainfall amounts in the far future because of climate change impacts. Consequently, future climate scenarios are expected to enhance floods and flash floods occurrences, which call for progressive measures to harness the RWH opportunity.

Groundwater recharge in desert playas: current rates and future effects of climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Our results from playas, which are topographic low areas situated in closed-catchments in drylands, indicated that projected climate change in Southwestern USA would have a net positive impact over runon and groundwater recharge beneath playas. Expected increased precipitation variability can cause ...

Toward a theory of persuasive hope: effects of cognitive appraisals, hope appeals, and hope in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Chadwick, Amy E

2015-01-01

Hope has the potential to be a powerful motivator for influencing behavior. However, hope and messages that evoke hope (hope appeals) have rarely been the focus of theoretical development or empirical research. As a step toward the effective development and use of hope appeals in persuasive communication, this study conceptualized and operationalized hope appeals in the context of climate change prevention. Then, the study manipulated components of the hope evocation part of a hope appeal. Specifically, the components were designed to address appraisals of the importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility of climate protection, resulting in a 2 (strong/weak importance) × 2 (strong/weak goal congruence) × 2 (strong/weak future expectation) × 2 (strong/weak possibility) between-subjects pretest-posttest factorial design. Two hundred forty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to one of the 16 message conditions and completed the study online. The study tested whether the four appraisals predict feelings of hope. It determined whether message components that address importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility affect appraisals, feelings of hope, and persuasion outcomes. Finally, this study tested the effects of feelings of hope on persuasion outcomes. This study takes an important step toward enabling the effective use of hope appeals in persuasive communication.

Mid-21st century projections of hydroclimate in Western Himalayas and Satluj River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-02-01

The Himalayan climate system is sensitive to global warming and climate change. Regional hydrology and the downstream water flow in the rivers of Himalayan origin may change due to variations in snow and glacier melt in the region. This study examines the mid-21st century climate projections over western Himalayas from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the global climate models used in the present analysis indicate that the study region would be warmer by mid-century. The temperature trends from all the models studied here are statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Multi-model ensemble spreads show that there are large differences among the models in their projections of future climate with spread in temperature ranging from about 1.5 °C to 5 °C over various areas of western Himalayas in all the seasons. Spread in precipitation projections lies between 0.3 and 1 mm/day in all the seasons. Major shift in the timing of evaporation maxima and minima is noticed. The GFDL_ESM2G model products have been downscaled to Satluj River basin using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model and impact of climate change on streamflow has been studied. The reduction of precipitation during JJAS is expected to be > 3-6 mm/day in RCP8.5 as compared to present climate. It is expected that precipitation amount shall increase over Satluj basin in future (mid-21st century) The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model has been used to simulate the Satluj streamflow for the present and future climate using GFDL_ESM2G precipitation and temperature data as well as the WRF model downscaled data. The computations using the global model data show that total annual discharge from Satluj will be less in future than that in present climate, especially in peak discharge season (JJAS). The SWAT model with downscaled output indicates that during winter and spring, more discharge shall occur in future (RCP8.5) in Satluj River.

A Bayesian model for quantifying the change in mortality associated with future ozone exposures under climate change.

PubMed

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Pfister, Gabriele G; Nychka, Doug

2016-03-01

Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the environment, including changes in ozone concentrations at the surface level. A key public health concern is the potential increase in ozone-related summertime mortality if surface ozone concentrations rise in response to climate change. Although ozone formation depends partly on summertime weather, which exhibits considerable inter-annual variability, previous health impact studies have not incorporated the variability of ozone into their prediction models. A major source of uncertainty in the health impacts is the variability of the modeled ozone concentrations. We propose a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo estimation method for quantifying health effects of future ozone. An advantage of this approach is that we include the uncertainty in both the health effect association and the modeled ozone concentrations. Using our proposed approach, we quantify the expected change in ozone-related summertime mortality in the contiguous United States between 2000 and 2050 under a changing climate. The mortality estimates show regional patterns in the expected degree of impact. We also illustrate the results when using a common technique in previous work that averages ozone to reduce the size of the data, and contrast these findings with our own. Our analysis yields more realistic inferences, providing clearer interpretation for decision making regarding the impacts of climate change. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Spatial modeling to project Southern Appalachian Trout distribution in warmer climate

Treesearch

Patrica A. Flebbe; Laura D. Roghair; Jennifer L. Bruggink

2006-01-01

In the southern Appalachian Mountains, the distributions of native brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and brown trout Salmo trutta are presently limited by temperature and are expected to be limited further by a warmer climate. To estimate trout habitat in a future...

Conservation practices to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted into the atmosphere by human activities have increased radiative forcing and caused an increase in the global mean temperature of approximately 0.74°C over the past century. In terms of soil conservation, expected consequences of future climate change include changes ...

Future socio-economic impacts and vulnerabilities

Treesearch

Balgis Osman-Elasha; Neil Adger; Maria Brockhaus; Carol J. Pierce Colfer; Brent Sohngen; Tallaat Dafalla; Linda A. Joyce; Nkem Johnson; Carmenza Robledo

2009-01-01

The projected impacts of climate change are significant, and despite the uncertainties associated with current climate and ecosystem model projections, the associated changes in the provision of forest ecosystem services are expected to be substantial in many parts of the world. These impacts will present significant social and economic challenges for affected...

Using Streamflow and Stream Temperature to Assess the Potential Responses of Freshwater Fish to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanCompernolle, M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.

2017-12-01

Streamflow and stream temperature are key variables influencing growth, reproduction, and mortality of freshwater fish. Climate-induced changes in these variables are expected to alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Using Maxent, a species distribution model (SDM) based on the principal of maximum entropy, we predicted potential distributional responses of 100 fish species in the Mobile River Basin (MRB) to changes in climate based on contemporary and future streamflow and stream temperature estimates. Geologic, topographic, and landcover data were also included in each SDM to determine the contribution of these physical variables in defining areas of suitable habitat for each species. Using an ensemble of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections under a high emissions scenario, predicted distributions for each species across the MRB were produced for both a historical time period, 1975-1994, and a future time period, 2060-2079, and changes in total area and the percent change in historical suitable habitat for each species were calculated. Results indicate that flow (28%), temperature (29%), and geology (29%), on average, contribute evenly to determining areas of suitable habitat for fish species in the MRB, with landcover and slope playing more limited roles. Temperature contributed slightly more predictive ability to SDMs (31%) for the 77 species experiencing overall declines in areas of suitable habitat, but only 21% for the 23 species gaining habitat across all GCMs. Species are expected to lose between 15-24% of their historical suitable habitat, with threatened and endangered species losing 22-30% and those endemic to the MRB losing 19-28%. Sculpins (Cottidae) are expected to lose the largest amount of historical habitat (up to 84%), while pygmy sunfish (Elassomatidae) are expected to lose less than 1% of historical habitat. Understanding which species may be at risk of habitat loss under future projections of climate change can help fisheries managers better prepare for potential alterations in species composition not only within the MRB, but other watersheds throughout the world.

Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

2015-12-01

Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Updated Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves Under Different Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of the existing and future infrastructures. Here we employ historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on climatic model projections. This presentation summarizes the projected changes in statistics of extremes. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, extreme precipitation events in some urban areas can be 20% more severe in the future, even when projected annual mean precipitation is expected to remain similar to the ground-based climatology.

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

PubMed

Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B

2017-12-01

Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

The effect of education on climate change risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; KC, S.; Jiang, L.; Fuchs, R.; Pachauri, S.; Ren, X.; Zhang, T.; Laidlaw, E.

2017-12-01

Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore climate change. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for the climate issue. Changes in the educational composition of the population may reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change impacts, reducing risks. However they may also have effects on energy use and land use, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and increase risks. The direction of the effect of education on emissions is itself ambiguous. On the one hand, improvements in education can be expected to lead to faster fertility decline and slower population growth which, all else equal, would be expected to reduce emissions. On the other hand, education can also be expected to lead to faster economic growth, which would tend to increase emissions, and also to changes in consumption patterns. We employ iPETS, an integrated assessment model that includes a multi-region model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on energy use and emissions on four world regions (China, India, Latin America, and Rest of Asia + Middle East) and therefore on climate. We also calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) for each region resulting from these scenarios, as an indicator of vulnerability to climate impacts. We find that the net effect of improved education is to increase emissions in the medium term driven primarily by increased labor productivity, but decrease emissions in the long term primarily as a result of slower population growth. At the same time, improved education positively affects all aspects of the HDI at all time horizons. Important caveats include the uncertainty in the effect of education on economic growth.

eSACP - a new Nordic initiative towards developing statistical climate services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Thejll, Peter; Drews, Martin; Guttorp, Peter; Venälainen, Ari; Uotila, Petteri; Benestad, Rasmus; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Madsen, Henrik; Fox Maule, Cathrine

2015-04-01

The Nordic research council NordForsk has recently announced its support for a new 3-year research initiative on "statistical analysis of climate projections" (eSACP). eSACP will focus on developing e-science tools and services based on statistical analysis of climate projections for the purpose of helping decision-makers and planners in the face of expected future challenges in regional climate change. The motivation behind the project is the growing recognition in our society that forecasts of future climate change is associated with various sources of uncertainty, and that any long-term planning and decision-making dependent on a changing climate must account for this. At the same time there is an obvious gap between scientists from different fields and between practitioners in terms of understanding how climate information relates to different parts of the "uncertainty cascade". In eSACP we will develop generic e-science tools and statistical climate services to facilitate the use of climate projections by decision-makers and scientists from all fields for climate impact analyses and for the development of robust adaptation strategies, which properly (in a statistical sense) account for the inherent uncertainty. The new tool will be publically available and include functionality to utilize the extensive and dynamically growing repositories of data and use state-of-the-art statistical techniques to quantify the uncertainty and innovative approaches to visualize the results. Such a tool will not only be valuable for future assessments and underpin the development of dedicated climate services, but will also assist the scientific community in making more clearly its case on the consequences of our changing climate to policy makers and the general public. The eSACP project is led by Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center, and also includes the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, the Technical University of Denmark and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway. This poster will present details of focus areas in the project and show some examples of the expected analysis tools.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherson, Michelle Yvonne; García-García, Almudena; José Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Beltrami, Hugo; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Hume Ogden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical and forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis. As in previous studies, R0 of I. scapularis increased with a warming climate under future projected climate. Increases in the multi-model mean R0 values showed significant changes over time under all RCP scenarios, however; only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences. Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. On-going planning is needed to inform and guide adaptation in light of the projected range of possible futures.

Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

PubMed

Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

2014-07-01

The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Changes in groundwater recharge under projected climate in the upper Colorado River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2016-01-01

Understanding groundwater-budget components, particularly groundwater recharge, is important to sustainably manage both groundwater and surface water supplies in the Colorado River basin now and in the future. This study quantifies projected changes in upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) groundwater recharge from recent historical (1950–2015) through future (2016–2099) time periods, using a distributed-parameter groundwater recharge model with downscaled climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections. Simulated future groundwater recharge in the UCRB is generally expected to be greater than the historical average in most decades. Increases in groundwater recharge in the UCRB are a consequence of projected increases in precipitation, offsetting reductions in recharge that would result from projected increased temperatures.

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama.

PubMed

Wang, Ruoyu; Kalin, Latif

2018-02-01

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid (TSS) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover (LULC) change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama, USA. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change (2016-2040). Three projected LULC maps (2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorous (TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease, mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

PubMed Central

Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Kutt, Alex S

2012-01-01

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this “realistic” dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species’ range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species. PMID:22837819

Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsani, Nima; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

2017-12-01

Observed changes in precipitation patterns, rising surface temperature, increases in frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, widespread melting of ice, and reduced snow cover are some of the documented hydrologic changes associated with global climate change. Climate change is therefore expected to affect the water supply-demand balance in the Northeast United States and challenge existing water management strategies. The hydrological implications of future climate will affect the design capacity and operating characteristics of dams. The vulnerability of water resources systems to floods and droughts will increase, and the trade-offs between reservoir releases to maintain flood control storage, drought resilience, ecological flow, human water demand, and energy production should be reconsidered. We used a Neural Networks based General Reservoir Operation Scheme to estimate the implications of climate change for dams on a regional scale. This dynamic daily reservoir module automatically adapts to changes in climate and re-adjusts the operation of dams based on water storage level, timing, and magnitude of incoming flows. Our findings suggest that the importance of dams in providing water security in the region will increase. We create an indicator of the Effective Degree of Regulation (EDR) by dams on water resources and show that it is expected to increase, particularly during drier months of year, simply as a consequence of projected climate change. The results also indicate that increasing the size and number of dams, in addition to modifying their operations, may become necessary to offset the vulnerabilities of water resources systems to future climate uncertainties. This is the case even without considering the likely increase in future water demand, especially in the most densely populated regions of the Northeast.

Climate change induces demographic resistance to disease in novel coral assemblages

PubMed Central

Yakob, Laith; Mumby, Peter J.

2011-01-01

Climate change is reshaping biological communities and has already generated novel ecosystems. The functioning of novel ecosystems could depart markedly from that of existing systems and therefore obscure the impacts of climate change. We illustrate this possibility for coral reefs, which are at the forefront of climatic stress. Disease has been a principal cause of reef degradation and is expected to worsen with increased future thermal stress. However, using a field-tested epizoological model, we show that high population turnover within novel ecosystems enhances coral resistance to epizootics. Thus, disease could become a less important driver of change in the future. We emphasize the need to move away from projections based on historic trends toward predictions that account for novel behavior of ecosystems under climate change. PMID:21245326

Changing climate in Hungary and trends in the annual number of heat stress days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solymosi, Norbert; Torma, Csaba; Kern, Anikó; Maróti-Agóts, Ákos; Barcza, Zoltán; Könyves, László; Berke, Olaf; Reiczigel, Jenő

2010-07-01

Global climate change can have serious direct effects on animal health and production through heat stress. In Hungary, the number of heat stress days per year (YNHD), i.e., days when the temperature humidity index (THI) is above a specific comfort threshold, has increased in recent years based on observed meteorological data. Between 1973 and 2008, the countrywide average increase in YNHD was 4.1% per year. Climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCM) were used to predict possible changes in YNHD for the near future (2021-2050) relative to the reference period (1961-1990). This comparison shows that, in Hungary, the 30-year mean of YNHD is expected to increase by between 1 and 27 days, depending on the RCM used. Half of the scenarios investigated in this study predicted that, in large parts of Hungary, YNHD will increase by at least 1 week. However, the increase observed in the past, and that predicted for the near future, is spatially heterogeneous, and areas that currently have large cattle populations are expected to be affected more severely than other regions.

A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: Easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Bell, David M.

2017-01-01

Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of basal area reduction, has been quantified in dryland forests such as those of the drought-prone Southwest US. We used thousands of repeatedly measured forest plots to show that unusually warm and dry conditions are related to high tree mortality rates and that mortality is positively related to basal area. Those relationships suggest that while increasing high temperature extremes forecasted by climate models may lead to elevated tree mortality during the 21st century, future tree mortality might be partly ameliorated by reducing stand basal area. This adaptive forest management strategy may provide a window of opportunity for forest managers and policy makers to guide forest transitions to species and/or genotypes more suited to future climates.

Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

2012-01-01

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at Fort Huachuca, Arizona

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch

2013-01-01

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex...

Comparing Climate Change and Species Invasions as Drivers of Coldwater Fish Population Extirpations

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Vander Zanden, M. Jake; Magnuson, John J.; Lyons, John

2011-01-01

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25–70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change. PMID:21860661

Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.

PubMed

Sharma, Sapna; Vander Zanden, M Jake; Magnuson, John J; Lyons, John

2011-01-01

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.

Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

PubMed

Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

2015-08-01

• Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Tilele; Madani, Kaveh

2016-11-01

Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi’s dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi’s soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi’s agriculture sector.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions

PubMed Central

Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

2013-01-01

Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%–17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other tropical mountains. PMID:23667651

21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.

PubMed

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Stoffel, Markus

2014-09-15

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future road salt use in Switzerland: an example of an effective climate service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubler, Elias M.; Fischer, Andreas M.; Schlegel, Thomas H.; Liniger, Mark A.

2015-04-01

The application of salt is the predominant measure taken to enhance road safety in Switzerland by clearing the roads from snow or preventing frozen surfaces during winter. The need for road salt exhibits a strong interannual variability, according to Schweizer Salinen AG - the Swiss monopolist for production and distribution of road salt. These fluctuations are to a large extent a direct consequence of the year-to-year variability in winter climate. In the course of the 21st century, Swiss climate is projected to depart significantly from present and past conditions. By the end of the century, winter temperatures over Switzerland are expected to rise by about 2-4°C relative to the mean over the period 1980-2009, while winter precipitation may either increase or decrease based on ENSEMBLES regional climate model projections under the SRES-scenario A1B. Faced with these changes, Schweizer Salinen AG asked for an estimate of the expected future road salt use for designing their long-term business strategy. The study is based on climate change projections from the CH2011 initiative and later extensions thereof as well as monthly sales data of road salt from Schweizer Salinen AG. For the period 1997-2013, a linear relationship was derived between the average number of days with snowfall and the road salt amount sold over "saltation years" defined from October 1st to September 30th in the 26 cantons (provinces) of Switzerland. The ad-hoc linear relationship was applied to the climate change projections to obtain future salt use information in three future periods for the greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B, A2 and RCP3PD. We find that the expected future salt use is likely to be reduced by about 50% in 2045-2074 under the scenario A1B. Currently, the countrywide mean annual road salt use corresponds to about 220'000 tons. In a particularly snow-rich year, the company sells up to 400'000 tons. At the end of the century, following a pessimistic scenario such as A1B or A2, the long-term mean salt use may even drop below today's annual minimum of 70'000 tons.

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

PubMed Central

Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

PubMed

Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

2018-03-01

Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, David S.; Davis, Michael G.

2010-09-01

Questions about global warming concern climate scientists and the general public alike. Specifically, what are the reliable surface temperature reconstructions over the past few centuries? And what are the best predictions of global temperature change the Earth might expect for the next century? Recent publications [National Research Council (NRC), 2006; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007] permit these questions to be answered in a single informative illustration by assembling temperature reconstructions of the past thousand years with predictions for the next century. The result, shown in Figure 1, illustrates present and future warming in the context of natural variations in the past [see also Oldfield and Alverson, 2003]. To quote a Chinese proverb, “A picture's meaning can express ten thousand words.” Because it succinctly captures past inferences and future projections of climate, the illustration should be of interest to scientists, educators, policy makers, and the public.

Using AQUACROP to model the impacts of future climates on crop production and possible adaptation strategies in Sardinia and Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Neil; Benabdallah, Sihem; Gouda, Nadine; Hummel, Franz; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Meyer, Swen; Soddu, Antonino; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

2014-05-01

A work package in the FP-7 funded CLIMB Project - Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling System had the goal of assessing socioeconomic vulnerability in two super-sites in future climates (2040-2070). The work package had deliverables to describe of agricultural adaptation measures appropriate to each site under future water availability scenarios and assess the risk of income losses due to water shortages in agriculture. The FAO model AQUACROP was used to estimate losses of agricultural productivity and indicate possible adaptation strategies. The presentation will focus on two interesting crops which show extreme vulnerability to expected changes in climate; irrigated lettuce in Sardinia and irrigated tomatoes in Tunisia. Modelling methodology, results and possible adaptation strategies will be presented.

Projected Changes to Streamflow Characteristics in Quebec Basins as Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Lehner, B.; Laprise, R.; Roy, R.

2011-12-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and increase in precipitation for some regions around the world, including the northern mid- to high-latitudes, is expected in future climate. This will have an impact on mean and extreme flow characteristics, which need to be assessed for better development of adaptation strategies. Analysis of the mean and extreme streamflow characteristics for Quebec (North-eastern Canada) basins in current climate and their projected changes in future climate are assessed using a 10 member ensemble of current (1970 - 1999) and future (2041 - 2070) Canadian RCM (CRCM4) simulations. Validation of streamflow characteristics, performed by comparing modeled values with those observed, available from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) shows that the model captures reasonably well the high flows. Results suggest increase in mean and 10 year return levels of 1 day high flows, which appear significant for most of the northern basins.

Carbon Pools in a Temperate Heathland Resist Changes in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambus, P.; Reinsch, S.; Nielsen, P. L.; Michelsen, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Mikkelsen, T. N.

2014-12-01

The fate of recently plant assimilated carbon was followed into ecosystem carbon pools and fluxes in a temperate heathland after a 13CO2 pulse in the early growing season in a 6-year long multi-factorial climate change experiment. Eight days after the pulse, recently assimilated carbon was significantly higher in storage organs (rhizomes) of the grass Deschampsia flexuosa under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Experimental drought induced a pronounced utilization of recently assimilated carbon belowground (roots, microbes, dissolved organic carbon) potentially counterbalancing limited nutrient availability. The fate of recently assimilated carbon was not affected by moderate warming. The full factorial combination of elevated CO2, warming and drought simulating future climatic conditions as expected for Denmark in 2075 did not change short-term carbon turnover significantly compared to ambient conditions. Overall, climate factors interacted in an unexpected way resulting in strong resilience of the heathland in terms of short-term carbon turnover in a future climate.

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margrethe Basse, Ellen; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Besenbacher, Flemming; Læssøe, Jeppe; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Lange, Lene

2009-03-01

More than 1000 prominent representatives from science, industry, politics and NGOs were gathered in Aarhus on 5-7 March 2009 for the international climate conference 'Beyond Kyoto: Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change'. Thematically, Beyond Kyoto was divided into seven areas of particular interest for understanding the effects of the projected future climate change and how the foreseen negative impacts can be counteracted by mitigation and adaptation measures. The themes were: Climate policy: the role of law and economics; Biodiversity and ecosystems; Agriculture and climate change; Nanotechnology solutions for a sustainable future; Citizens and society, and The Arctic. The main responsible scientists for the seven conference themes and representatives from the think-tank CONCITO delivered 'The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change' as part of the closing session of the conference. The statements were also communicated to the Danish Government as well as to the press. This article is the product of the collective subsequent work of the seven theme responsibles and is a presentation of each theme statement in detail, emphasizing the current state of knowledge and how it may be used to minimize the expected negative impacts of future climate change.

Conifer radial growth response to recent seasonal warming and drought from the southwestern USA

Treesearch

Charles Truettner; William R. L. Anderegg; Franco Biondi; George W. Koch; Kiona Ogle; Christopher Schwalm; Marcy E. Litvak; John D. Shaw; Emanuele Ziaco

2018-01-01

Future droughts are expected to become more severe and frequent under future climate change scenarios, likely causing widespread tree mortality in the western USA. Coping with an uncertain future requires an understanding of long-term ecosystem responses in areas where prolonged drought is projected to increase. Tree-ring records are ideally suited for this task. We...

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avolio, Elenio; Orlandi, Fabio; Bellecci, Carlo; Fornaciari, Marco; Federico, Stefano

2012-02-01

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree ( Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.

21st Century Climate Change in the European Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Stoffel, Markus; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Beniston, Martin

2014-05-01

The Alps are particularly sensitive to global warming and warmed twice as much as the global average in the recent past. In addition, the Alps and its surroundings are a densly populated areas where society is affected by climate change in many ways, which calls for reliable estimates of future climate change. However, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in future climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. It will be demonstrated that considerable and accelerating changes are not only to be expected with regard to temperature, but also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be effected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will most probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity. More intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential are particularly expected in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500 - 2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic variables and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. Acknowledgements: This study has been initiated and is partly funded by the EU FP6 project ACQWA (www.acqwa.ch). Additional funding has been provided by the project ARNICA (http://www.lgp.cnrs-bellevue.fr/arnica/), funded under the EU CIRCLE-2 mountain call, by the Swiss National Science Foundation through the Sinergia project TEMPS, and the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP) through the projects reclip:century and DEUCALION. We acknowledge the RCM data sets from the EU- FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com). In particular, we thank Sebastian R. Scher (University of Graz) for the preparation of several figures in this study.This study has been supported by the EU project ACQWA (FP7 no. 212250) and the ACRP project reclip:century 2 (No. A963768).

Impacts of climate change on Oregon's coasts and estuaries: Chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruggiero,; Brown, Cheryl A.; Komar, Paul D.; Allan, Jonathan C.; Reusser, Deborah A.; Lee,

2010-01-01

In the following sections we attempt to summarize the most recent literature documenting historical changes as well as what may be expected to occur in response to climate change. Where little information is available we draw preliminary conclusions about the potential for specific impacts. When possible we highlight what research is needed to bridge knowledge gaps to improve our ability to identify climate change impacts more precisely, ultimately allowing for future projections.

Implications of climate change for bird conservation in the southwestern U.S

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax...

Phase I: Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Erin L. Landguth; Curtis Flather

2010-01-01

This project is addressing some of the most important emerging conservation issues in the American Great Plains region by studying the interaction of climate change and human development on habitat for native wildlife species. We are integrating the most current understandings of expected future change in vegetation and land use patterns across the Great Plains, and...

Long-term vegetation changes in a temperate forest impacted by climate change

Treesearch

Lauren E. Oakes; Paul E. Hennon; Kevin L. O' Hara; Rodolfo Dirzo

2014-01-01

Pervasive forest mortality is expected to increase in future decades as a result of increasing temperatures. Climate-induced forest dieback can have consequences on ecosystem services, potentially mediated by changes in forest structure and understory community composition that emerge in response to tree death. Although many dieback events around the world have been...

Projecting carbon footprint of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions with the integrated farm system model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dairy farms are an important sector of Canadian agriculture, and there is an on-going effort to assess their environmental impact. In Canada, like many northern areas of the world, climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity. This will likely come along with changes in environme...

Projecting trends in agronomic, economic, and environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity in Canada as in many northern areas in the world. This will likely come along with changes in the environmental and economic performance of dairy farms, one of the most important agricultural sectors in Canada. The objective of this s...

Impacts of past and future climate change on wind energy resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaa, J. R.; Wood, A.; Eichelberger, S.; Westrick, K.

2009-12-01

The links between climate change and trends in wind energy resources have important potential implications for the wind energy industry, and have received significant attention in recent studies. We have conducted two studies that provide insights into the potential for climate change to affect future wind power production. In one experiment, we projected changes in power capacity for a hypothetical wind farm located near Kennewick, Washington, due to greenhouse gas-induced climate change, estimated using a set of regional climate model simulations. Our results show that the annual wind farm power capacity is projected to decrease 1.3% by 2050. In a wider study focusing on wind speed instead of power, we analyzed projected changes in wind speed from 14 different climate simulations that were performed in support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). Our results show that the predicted ensemble mean changes in annual mean wind speeds are expected to be modest. However, seasonal changes and changes predicted by individual models are large enough to affect the profitability of existing and future wind projects. The majority of the model simulations reveal that near-surface wind speed values are expected to shift poleward in response to the IPCC A2 emission scenario, particularly during the winter season. In the United States, most models agree that the mean annual wind speed values will increase in a region extending from the Great Lakes southward across the Midwest and into Texas. Decreased values, though, are predicted across most of the western United States. However, these predicted changes have a strong seasonal dependence, with wind speed increases over most of the United States during the winter and decreases over the northern United States during the summer.

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Freeman, Lauren A

2015-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

PubMed

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-11-07

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

PubMed Central

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sue Wing, I.; Stern, A.

2014-12-01

As contributors to the US EPA's Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment (CIRA) project, we present empirically-based projections of climate change impacts on the yields of five major US crops. Our analysis uses a 15-member ensemble of climate simulations using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) linked to the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), forced by 3 emissions scenarios (a "business as usual" reference scenario and two stabilization scenarios at 4.5W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100), quantify the agricultural impacts avoided due to greenhouse gas emission reductions. Our innovation is the coupling of climate model outputs with empirical estimates of the long-run relationship between crop yields and temperature, precipitation and soil moisture derived from the co-variation between yields and weather across US counties over the last 50 years. Our identifying assumption is that since farmers' planting, management and harvesting decisions are based on land quality and expectations of weather, yields and meteorological variables share a long-run equilibrium relationship. In any given year, weather shocks cause yields to diverge from their expected long-run values, prompting farmers to revise their long-run expectations. We specify a dynamic panel error correction model (ECM) that statistically distinguishes these two processes. The ECM is estimated for maize, wheat, soybeans, sorghum and cotton using longitudinal data on production and harvested area for ~1,100 counties from 1948-2010, in conjunction with spatial fields of 3-hourly temperature, precipitation and soil moisture from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) forcing and output files, binned into annual counts of exposure over the growing season and mapped to county centroids. For scenarios of future warming the identical method was used to calculate counties' current (1986-2010) and future (2036-65 and 2086-2110) distributions of simulated 3-hourly growing season temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. Finally, we combine these variables with the fitted long-run response to obtain county-level yields under current average climate and projected future climate under our three warming scenarios. We close our presentation with a discussion of the implications for mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Assessing vulnerable and expanding vegetation stands and species in the San Francisco Bay Area for conservation management under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morueta-Holme, N.; Heller, N. E.; McLaughlin, B.; Weiss, S. B.; Ackerly, D.

2015-12-01

The distribution of suitable climatic areas for species and vegetation types is expected to shift due to ongoing climate change. While the pace at which current distributions will shift is hard to quantify, predictions of where climatically suitable areas will be in the future can allow us to map 1) areas currently occupied by a species or vegetation type unlikely to persist through the end of this century (vulnerable stands), 2) areas likely to do better in the future and serve as nuclei for population expansion (expanding stands), and 3) areas likely to act as climate refugia (persisting stands). We quantified the vulnerability of 27 individual plant species and 27 vegetation types in the San Francisco Bay Area as well as the conservation importance, vulnerability, and resilience of selected management sites for climate change resilient conservation. To this end, we developed California-wide models of species and vegetation distributions using climate data from the 2014 California Basin Characterization Model at a 270 m resolution, projected to 18 different end-of century climate change scenarios. Combining these distribution models with high resolution maps of current vegetation, we were able to map projected vulnerable, expanding, and persisting stands within the Bay Area. We show that vegetation and species are expected to shift considerably within the study region over the next decades; although we also identify refugia potentially able to offset some of the negative impacts of climate change. We discuss the implications for managers that wish to incorporate climate change in conservation decisions, in particular related to choosing species for restoration, identifying areas to collect seeds for restoration, and preparing for expected major vegetation changes. Our evaluation of individual management sites highlights the need for stronger coordination of efforts across sites to prioritize monitoring and protection of species whose ranges are contracting elsewhere. Finally, we present and discuss novel ways in visualizing and communicating condensed predictions and their uncertainty to land managers and challenges inherent. This work is part of the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative, committed to developing a scientific basis for climate adaptation conservation strategies.

Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.

PubMed

Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2015-11-01

We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Accounting for Global Climate Model Projection Uncertainty in Modern Statistical Downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johannesson, G

2010-03-17

Future climate change has emerged as a national and a global security threat. To carry out the needed adaptation and mitigation steps, a quantification of the expected level of climate change is needed, both at the global and the regional scale; in the end, the impact of climate change is felt at the local/regional level. An important part of such climate change assessment is uncertainty quantification. Decision and policy makers are not only interested in 'best guesses' of expected climate change, but rather probabilistic quantification (e.g., Rougier, 2007). For example, consider the following question: What is the probability that themore » average summer temperature will increase by at least 4 C in region R if global CO{sub 2} emission increases by P% from current levels by time T? It is a simple question, but one that remains very difficult to answer. It is answering these kind of questions that is the focus of this effort. The uncertainty associated with future climate change can be attributed to three major factors: (1) Uncertainty about future emission of green house gasses (GHG). (2) Given a future GHG emission scenario, what is its impact on the global climate? (3) Given a particular evolution of the global climate, what does it mean for a particular location/region? In what follows, we assume a particular GHG emission scenario has been selected. Given the GHG emission scenario, the current batch of the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is used to simulate future climate under this scenario, yielding an ensemble of future climate projections (which reflect, to some degree our uncertainty of being able to simulate future climate give a particular GHG scenario). Due to the coarse-resolution nature of the GCM projections, they need to be spatially downscaled for regional impact assessments. To downscale a given GCM projection, two methods have emerged: dynamical downscaling and statistical (empirical) downscaling (SDS). Dynamic downscaling involves configuring and running a regional climate model (RCM) nested within a given GCM projection (i.e., the GCM provides bounder conditions for the RCM). On the other hand, statistical downscaling aims at establishing a statistical relationship between observed local/regional climate variables of interest and synoptic (GCM-scale) climate predictors. The resulting empirical relationship is then applied to future GCM projections. A comparison of the pros and cons of dynamical versus statistical downscaling is outside the scope of this effort, but has been extensively studied and the reader is referred to Wilby et al. (1998); Murphy (1999); Wood et al. (2004); Benestad et al. (2007); Fowler et al. (2007), and references within those. The scope of this effort is to study methodology, a statistical framework, to propagate and account for GCM uncertainty in regional statistical downscaling assessment. In particular, we will explore how to leverage an ensemble of GCM projections to quantify the impact of the GCM uncertainty in such an assessment. There are three main component to this effort: (1) gather the necessary climate-related data for a regional SDS study, including multiple GCM projections, (2) carry out SDS, and (3) assess the uncertainty. The first step is carried out using tools written in the Python programming language, while analysis tools were developed in the statistical programming language R; see Figure 1.« less

Scenario Planning of California Water Resources with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, H.; Chung, F. I.; Anderson, J.

2008-12-01

Several advances have been made in using climate change projection information in water resources planning in California. Since there is uncertainty about future climate, 12 climate change projections were used to assess impacts on SWP and CVP operations. Average results for the 12 projections are presented in this summary. Current SWP and CVP infrastructure, regulations and operating rules were assumed. These studies indicate that climate change is expected to reduce the reliability of the SWP and CVP water supply systems. Annual Delta exports are expected to be reduced by 8% by mid-century and 15% by the end of the century. This would lead to reduced water deliveries south of the Delta. Decreases in reservoir carryover storage of 16% by mid-century and 28% by the end of the century would reduce the system's flexibility during water shortages. Groundwater pumping in the Sacramento Valley is expected to increase by 8% by mid-century and by 13% at the end of the century to augment surface water supplies. Power supply from the combined SWP and CVP is expected to decrease by 5% at mid-century and 8% by the end of the century. It is anticipated that the SWP and CVP will become vulnerable to operational interruption in about 10% of the years by mid-century and 15% of the years at the end of the century. To meet current regulatory requirements and to maintain minimum system operations during the vulnerable years, an additional 420 TAF/year of water by mid-century and an additional 610 TAF/year of water by the end of the century would be needed. This water could be obtained through additional water supplies, reductions in water demands, or a combination of the two. These results indicate a need to explore adaptation measures to improve the reliability of future water supplies in California. Because uncertainties associated with impacts analyses increase as the projection moves further into the future, and because a practical engineering planning horizon for most facilities is less than 50 years, DWR believes that the mid-century analyses are more relevant to water resources planning and management. However, the end of the century analyses will serve as a useful reference guide since many water facilities are expected to have useful lives into the next century.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

Effects of climate change on residential infiltration and air pollution exposure.

PubMed

Ilacqua, Vito; Dawson, John; Breen, Michael; Singer, Sarany; Berg, Ashley

2017-01-01

Air exchange through infiltration is driven partly by indoor/outdoor temperature differences, and as climate change increases ambient temperatures, such differences could vary considerably even with small ambient temperature increments, altering patterns of exposures to both indoor and outdoor pollutants. We calculated changes in air fluxes through infiltration for prototypical detached homes in nine metropolitan areas in the United States (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, and Seattle) from 1970-2000 to 2040-2070. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory model of infiltration was used in combination with climate data from eight regionally downscaled climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Averaged over all study locations, seasons, and climate models, air exchange through infiltration would decrease by ~5%. Localized increased infiltration is expected during the summer months, up to 20-30%. Seasonal and daily variability in infiltration are also expected to increase, particularly during the summer months. Diminished infiltration in future climate scenarios may be expected to increase exposure to indoor sources of air pollution, unless these ventilation reductions are otherwise compensated. Exposure to ambient air pollution, conversely, could be mitigated by lower infiltration, although peak exposure increases during summer months should be considered, as well as other mechanisms.

Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui

2016-04-01

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Oak pollen season length for moderate (RCP4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) are estimated through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE), driven by epidemiologically-derived concentration-response relationships. Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle.

PubMed

Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Ciais, Philippe; Frank, Dorothea; Mahecha, Miguel D; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Zscheischler, Jakob; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Frank, David C; Papale, Dario; Rammig, Anja; Smith, Pete; Thonicke, Kirsten; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin

2013-08-15

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Ogren, John A.; Rodhe, Henning

2010-01-01

The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East.

PubMed

Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

2018-03-13

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a "highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring" pattern which switches to the "increase in autumn, decrease in spring" pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.

Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011-60

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Uma Shankar; Aijun Xiu; K. Talgo; D. Yang; Ernest Dixon; Donald McKenzie; Karen L. Abt

2016-01-01

Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades.We estimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (...

Wildfire and fuel treatment effects on forest carbon dynamics in the western United States

Treesearch

Joseph C. Restiano; David L. Peterson

2013-01-01

Sequestration of carbon (C) in forests has the potential to mitigate the effects of climate change by offsetting future emissions of greenhouse gases. However, in dry temperate forests, wildfire is a natural disturbance agent with the potential to release large fluxes of C into the atmosphere. Climate-driven increases in wildfire extent and severity arc expected to...

Eco-hydrological Modeling in the Framework of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, Simone; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Caporali, Enrica

2010-05-01

A blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the plot and small catchment scale is presented. Input hydro-meteorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models for present and future climates are reproduced using a stochastic downscaling technique and a weather generator, "AWE-GEN". The generated time series of meteorological variables for the present climate and an ensemble of possible future climates serve as input to a newly developed physically-based eco-hydrological model "Tethys-Chloris". An application of the proposed methodology is realized reproducing the current (1961-2000) and multiple future (2081-2100) climates for the location of Tucson (Arizona). A general reduction of precipitation and a significant increase of air temperature are inferred. The eco-hydrological model is successively applied to detect changes in water recharge and vegetation dynamics for a desert shrub ecosystem, typical of the semi-arid climate of south Arizona. Results for the future climate account for uncertainties in the downscaling and are produced in terms of probability density functions. A comparison of control and future scenarios is discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity. An appreciable effect of climate change can be observed in metrics of vegetation performance. The negative impact on vegetation due to amplification of water stress in a warmer and dryer climate is offset by a positive effect of carbon dioxide augment. This implies a positive shift in plant capabilities to exploit water. Consequently, the plant water use efficiency and rain use efficiency are expected to increase. Interesting differences in the long-term vegetation productivity are also observed for the ensemble of future climates. The reduction of precipitation and the substantial maintenance of vegetation cover ultimately leads to the depletion of soil moisture and recharge to deeper layers. Such an outcome can affect the long-tem water availability in semi-arid systems and expose plants to more severe and frequent periods of stress.

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE PAGES

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; ...

2014-09-24

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Effects of Climate Change and Deforestation on the Amazon's Hydrological Cycle Will Require Interventions to Hydropower Planning in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arias, M. E.; Farinosi, F.; Lee, E.; Livino, A.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2016-12-01

Brazil is the 2nd largest hydropower producer in the world, and this energy source will continue to be a priority in the country for the foreseeable decades. Yet, climate change is expected to alter the country's hydrological regime, in particular in the Amazon where most new hydropower development is occurring. In order to better assess the potential of hydropower projects in decades to come, it is important to evaluate how future hydrological regimes will affect their performance and suitability. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and land use conversion on hydropower generation, and identifies mechanisms that could help energy planners to account for future changes. Using the largest network of dams in Brazil's national portfolio within a single watershed, the Tapaj's River, this study connects global and regional future environmental projections to daily river flows and operations of 37 dams with an overall potential capacity of 29.4 GW. We found that climate change could decrease hydropower potential by 477-665 MW (-6 to -8% from historical conditions) during the dry season, a critical loss since dams are expected to operate at only one third of capacity during this perioddue to the limited reservoir volume of most projects in the Amazon lowlands. Furthermore, deforestation is expected to increase the inter-annual variability in hydropower potential from 2,798 for baseline conditions to 3,764-3,899 (+967-1102) MW under future scenarios for the 2040s. Consideration of future hydrological conditions on individual dams showed that the magnitude and uncertainty of losses could be greater than 30 MW -equivalent to the total potential of some dams in the inventory- in 11 of the projects studied. Future hydrological conditions could also delay the period when maximum daily generation occurs by 22-29 days, which could have important implications to energy planning in Brazil because these run-of-river dams would no longer be able to meet the country's seasonal peak demand. This information on future changes to individual dams' performance could feed directly into the project selection process in order to adapt designs and operations to ensure the greatest benefits and least impacts from hydropower in the long term.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-01-01

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

2010-05-01

To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a useful Climate Twins regions search. The Climate Twins tool works actually comparing future climate conditions of a certain source area in the Greater Alpine Region with current climate conditions of entire Europe and the neighbouring southern as well south-eastern areas as target regions. A next version will integrate web crawling features for searching information about climate-related local adaptations observed today in the target region which may turn out as appropriate solution for the source region under future climate conditions. The contribution will present the current tool functionally and will discuss which indicator sets, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges work best to deliver scientifically sound climate comparisons and distinct mapping results.

Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

While there is a large consensus that plant-plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation-climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant-plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change.

Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change

PubMed Central

Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A.; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

While there is a large consensus that plant–plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation–climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant–plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change. PMID:25161660

Impact of climatic and environmental changes on flood-duration-frequencies in the Fengle Rriver (YangTze Basin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salles, Christian; Chu, Yin; Tournoud, Marie-George; Ou, Mengli; Perrin, Jean-Louis; Cres, François-Noël; Ma, Youhua

2016-04-01

Future water management challenges such as flood risk are highly relevant to climate and land use changes. Climate change is expected to lead to an ongoing intensification of effects on changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration which could exacerbate flooding issues. Land use changes, modifications of agricultural practices and urbanization alter the apportionment of the different hydrological processes at the basin scale and could significantly affect the seasonality of streamflow. At the local scale, the consequences of climate and land use changes on flood occurrence and magnitude are a major issue for the economic development and management policy of basin area. This study apply a methodology for investigating the potential consequences of land use ,as well as precipitation and temperature changes on flood occurrence, duration and magnitude, accounting for uncertainties in scenario data and hydrological model parameters. The discharge time series predicted for the future were simulated from a calibrated and validated distributed hydrological model. The model was run from inputs which are -predicted rainfall time series based on scenarios of changes identified from a literature review, -future evapotranspiration rates assessed from temperature changes identified from a literature review -and scenarios of land-use changes The study area, the Fengle River basin (1500 km2), is located in the northeast part of Yangtze basin. The river is one of the main tributaries of the Chao Lake, the fifth largest natural lake of China. The lake catchment is 9130 km2 in area, including the city of Hefei and a large extent of agricultural and rural areas. Many changes are expected in land use and agricultural practices in the future, due to the touristic appeal of the Chao Lake shore and the growth of the city of Hefei. Climate changes are also expected in this region, with a high impact on rainfall regime. In the current period heavy storms and floods occur predominantly during summer. Using the above methodology the future dynamics of the Fengle River is characterized on discharge-duration-frequency curves. Results will be discussed with regards to the sensitivity of predicted flood occurrence, duration and magnitude by quantifying the impact of rainfall, temperature and land-use changes.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada Inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

PubMed Central

McPherson, Michelle; García-García, Almudena; Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Ogden, Nicholas Hume

2017-01-01

Background: A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. Objectives: We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. Methods: We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical (1971–2000), and to forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Results: Increases in the multimodel mean R0 values estimated for both future periods, relative to 1971–2000, were statistically significant under all RCP scenarios for all of Nova Scotia, areas of New Brunswick and Quebec, Ontario south of 47°N, and Manitoba south of 52°N. When comparing RCP scenarios, only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences for any future time period. Conclusion: Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP57 PMID:28599266

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.

PubMed

Descombes, Patrice; Wisz, Mary S; Leprieur, Fabien; Parravicini, Valerianio; Heine, Christian; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David; Pellissier, Loïc

2015-01-21

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

2016-07-01

There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

2017-12-01

Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

2015-03-01

Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.

PubMed

Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L; Ando, Amy W; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

2017-04-01

Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Application of statistical downscaling technique for the production of wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaitán Fernández, E.; García Moreno, R.; Pino Otín, M. R.; Ribalaygua Batalla, J.

2012-04-01

Climate and soil are two of the most important limiting factors for agricultural production. Nowadays climate change has been documented in many geographical locations affecting different cropping systems. The General Circulation Models (GCM) has become important tools to simulate the more relevant aspects of the climate expected for the XXI century in the frame of climatic change. These models are able to reproduce the general features of the atmospheric dynamic but their low resolution (about 200 Km) avoids a proper simulation of lower scale meteorological effects. Downscaling techniques allow overcoming this problem by adapting the model outcomes to local scale. In this context, FIC (Fundación para la Investigación del Clima) has developed a statistical downscaling technique based on a two step analogue methods. This methodology has been broadly tested on national and international environments leading to excellent results on future climate models. In a collaboration project, this statistical downscaling technique was applied to predict future scenarios for the grape growing systems in Spain. The application of such model is very important to predict expected climate for the different growing crops, mainly for grape, where the success of different varieties are highly related to climate and soil. The model allowed the implementation of agricultural conservation practices in the crop production, detecting highly sensible areas to negative impacts produced by any modification of climate in the different regions, mainly those protected with protected designation of origin, and the definition of new production areas with optimal edaphoclimatic conditions for the different varieties.

Effects of Projected Future Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge and Storage for Two Coastal Aquifers in Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolb, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to pose a significant threat to water resources in the future. Guanacaste Province, located in northwestern Costa Rica, has a unique climate that is influenced by the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as the Central Cordillera mountain range. Although the region experiences a marked rainy season between May and November, the hot, dry summers often stress water resources. Climate change projections suggest increased temperatures and reduced precipitation for the region, which will further stress water supplies. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on groundwater resources for two coastal aquifers, Potrero and Brasilito. The UZF model package coupled with the finite difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW were used to evaluate the effect of climate change on groundwater recharge and storage. A potential evapotranspiration model was used to estimate groundwater infiltration rates used in the MODFLOW model. Climate change projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to develop climate scenarios, which were compared to historical data. Preliminary results indicate that climate change could reduce future recharge, especially during the dry season. Additionally, the coastal aquifers are at increased risk of reduced storage and increased salinization due to the reductions in groundwater recharge and sea level rise. Climate change could also affect groundwater quality in the region, disrupting the ecosystem and impairing a primary source of drinking water.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin.

PubMed

Tra, Tran Van; Thinh, Nguyen Xuan; Greiving, Stefan

2018-07-15

Vu Gia- Thu Bon (VGTB) River Basin, located in the Central Coastal zone of Viet Nam currently faces water shortage. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenge. Therefore, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the river basin. The study adopts a combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment to address the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the VGTB River Basin. A MIKE BASIN water balance model for the river basin was established to simulate the response of the hydrological system. Simulations were performed through parametrically varying temperature and precipitation to determine the vulnerability space of water shortage. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were then utilized to provide climate projections for the river basin. The output from GCMs was then mapped onto the vulnerability space determined earlier. In total, 9 out of 55 water demand nodes in the simulation are expected to face problematic conditions as future climate changes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

PubMed

Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

PubMed Central

Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Uncertainties in discharge projections in consequence of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebert, J.; Düthmann, D.; Berg, P.; Feldmann, H.; Ihringer, J.; Kunstmann, H.; Merz, B.; Ott, I.; Schädler, G.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC summarizes possible effects of the global climate change. For Europe an increasing variability of temperature and precipitation is expected. While the increasing temperature is projected almost uniformly for Europe, for precipitation the models indicate partly heterogeneous tendencies. In order to maintain current safety-standards in the infrastructure of our various water management systems, the possible future floods discharges are very often a central question. In the planning and operation of water infrastructure systems uncertainties considerations have an important function. In times of climate change the analyses of measured historical gauge data (normally 30 - 80 years) are not sufficient enough, because even significant trends are only valid in the analyzed time period and extrapolations are exceedingly difficult. Therefore combined climate and hydrological modeling for scenario based projections become more and more popular. Regarding that adaptation measures in water infrastructure are in general very time-consuming and cost intensive qualified questions to the variability and uncertainty of model based results are important as well. The CEDIM-Project "Flood hazards in a changing climate" is focusing on both: future changes in flood discharge and assess the uncertainties that are involved in such model based future predictions. In detail the study bases on an ensemble of hydrological model (HM) simulations in 3 representative small to medium sized German river catchments (Ammer, Mulde and Ruhr). The meteorological Input bases on 2 high resolution (7 km) regional climate models (RCM) driven by 2 global climate models (GCM) for the near future (2021 - 2050) following the A1B emission scenario (SRES). Two of the catchments (Ruhr and Mulde) have sub-mountainous and one (Ammer) has alpine character. Besides analyzing the future changes in discharge in the catchments, the describing and potential quantification of the variability of the results, based on the different driving data, regionalization methods, spatial resolutions and model types, is one main goal of the study and should stay in the focus of the poster. The general result is a large variability in the discharge projection. The identified variabilities are in the annual regime mainly attributable to different causes in the used model chain (GCM-RCM-HM). In winter the global climate models (GCM) bring the main uncertainties in the future projection. In summer the main variability refers to the meteorological downscaling to the regional scale (RCM) in combination with the hydrological modeling (HM). But with an appropriate ensemble statistic are despite the large variabilities mean future tendencies detectable. The Ruhr catchment shows tendencies to future higher flood discharges and in the Ammer and Mulde catchments are no significant changes expected.

The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus.

PubMed

Brand, Samuel P C; Keeling, Matt J

2017-03-01

It is a long recognized fact that climatic variations, especially temperature, affect the life history of biting insects. This is particularly important when considering vector-borne diseases, especially in temperate regions where climatic fluctuations are large. In general, it has been found that most biological processes occur at a faster rate at higher temperatures, although not all processes change in the same manner. This differential response to temperature, often considered as a trade-off between onward transmission and vector life expectancy, leads to the total transmission potential of an infected vector being maximized at intermediate temperatures. Here we go beyond the concept of a static optimal temperature, and mathematically model how realistic temperature variation impacts transmission dynamics. We use bluetongue virus (BTV), under UK temperatures and transmitted by Culicoides midges, as a well-studied example where temperature fluctuations play a major role. We first consider an optimal temperature profile that maximizes transmission, and show that this is characterized by a warm day to maximize biting followed by cooler weather to maximize vector life expectancy. This understanding can then be related to recorded representative temperature patterns for England, the UK region which has experienced BTV cases, allowing us to infer historical transmissibility of BTV, as well as using forecasts of climate change to predict future transmissibility. Our results show that when BTV first invaded northern Europe in 2006 the cumulative transmission intensity was higher than any point in the last 50 years, although with climate change such high risks are the expected norm by 2050. Such predictions would indicate that regular BTV epizootics should be expected in the UK in the future. © 2017 The Author(s).

A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: Elucidating the role of temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Demirel, Mehmet C.

2017-10-01

The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970-1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010-2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; Rooijen, Arnold; Cheriton, Olivia; Dongeren, Ap

2015-08-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; van Rooijen, Arnold; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia

2015-01-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

TECA: Petascale pattern recognition for climate science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prabhat, .; Byna, Surendra; Vishwanath, Venkatram

Climate Change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. Climate simulations provide us with a unique opportunity to examine effects of anthropogenic emissions. Highresolution climate simulations produce “Big Data”: contemporary climate archives are ≈ 5PB in size and we expect future archives to measure on the order of Exa-Bytes. In this work, we present the successful application of TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) framework, for extracting extreme weather patterns such as Tropical Cyclones, Atmospheric Rivers and Extra-Tropical Cyclones from TB-sized simulation datasets. TECA has been run at full-scale on Cray XE6 and IBMmore » BG/Q systems, and has reduced the runtime for pattern detection tasks from years to hours. TECA has been utilized to evaluate the performance of various computational models in reproducing the statistics of extreme weather events, and for characterizing the change in frequency of storm systems in the future.« less

Improving Predictions and Management of Hydrological Extremes through Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Hurk, Bart; Wijngaard, Janet; Pappenberger, Florian; Bouwer, Laurens; Weerts, Albrecht; Buontempo, Carlo; Doescher, Ralf; Manez, Maria; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Hananel, Cedric; Ercin, Ertug; Hunink, Johannes; Klein, Bastian; Pouget, Laurent; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

The EU Roadmap on Climate Services can be seen as a result of convergence between the society's call for "actionable research", and the climate research community providing tailored data, information and knowledge. However, although weather and climate have clearly distinct definitions, a strong link between weather and climate services exists that is not explored extensively. Stakeholders being interviewed in the context of the Roadmap consider climate as a far distant long term feature that is difficult to consider in present-day decision taking, which is dominated by daily experience with handling extreme events. It is argued that this experience is a rich source of inspiration to increase society's resilience to an unknown future. A newly started European research project, IMPREX, is built on the notion that "experience in managing current day weather extremes is the best learning school to anticipate consequences of future climate". This paper illustrates possible ways to increase the link between information and services addressing weather and climate time scales by discussing the underlying concepts of IMPREX and its expected outcome.

Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Xu, Min; Pandit, Shreejana

2018-01-01

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal. PMID:29360797

A bottom-up robust optimization framework for identifying river basin development pathways under deep climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

Hydroclimatic nonstationarity due to climate change poses challenges for long-term water infrastructure planning in river basin systems. While designing strategies that are flexible or adaptive hold intuitive appeal, development of well-performing strategies requires rigorous quantitative analysis that address uncertainties directly while making the best use of scientific information on the expected evolution of future climate. Multi-stage robust optimization (RO) offers a potentially effective and efficient technique for addressing the problem of staged basin-level planning under climate change, however the necessity of assigning probabilities to future climate states or scenarios is an obstacle to implementation, given that methods to reliably assign probabilities to future climate states are not well developed. We present a method that overcomes this challenge by creating a bottom-up RO-based framework that decreases the dependency on probability distributions of future climate and rather employs them after optimization to aid selection amongst competing alternatives. The iterative process yields a vector of `optimal' decision pathways each under the associated set of probabilistic assumptions. In the final phase, the vector of optimal decision pathways is evaluated to identify the solutions that are least sensitive to the scenario probabilities and are most-likely conditional on the climate information. The framework is illustrated for the planning of new dam and hydro-agricultural expansions projects in the Niger River Basin over a 45-year planning period from 2015 to 2060.

Utility of AIRS Retrievals for Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Guyla I.; Susskind, Joel

2007-01-01

Satellites provide an ideal platform to study the Earth-atmosphere system on practically all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, one may expect that their rapidly growing datasets could provide crucial insights not only for short-term weather processes/predictions but into ongoing and future climate change processes as well. Though Earth-observing satellites have been around for decades, extracting climatically reliable information from their widely varying datasets faces rather formidable challenges. AIRS/AMSU is a state of the art infrared/microwave sounding system that was launched on the EOS Aqua platform on May 4, 2002, and has been providing operational quality measurements since September 2002. In addition to temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles, outgoing longwave radiation and basic cloud parameters are also derived from the AIRS/AMSU observations. However, so far the AIRS products have not been rigorously evaluated and/or validated on a large scale. Here we present preliminary assessments of monthly and 8-day mean AIRS "Version 4.0" retrieved products (available to the public through the DAAC at NASA/GSFC) to assess their utility for climate studies. First we present "consistency checks" by evaluating the time series of means, and "anomalies" (relative to the first 4 full years' worth of AIRS "climate statistics") of several climatically important retrieved parameters. Finally, we also present preliminary results regarding interrelationships of some of these geophysical variables, to assess to what extent they are consistent with the known physics of climate variability/change. In particular, we find at least one observed relationship which contradicts current general circulation climate (GCM) model results: the global water vapor climate feedback which is expected to be strongly positive is deduced to be slightly negative (shades of the "Lindzen effect"?). Though the current AIRS climatology covers only -4.5 years, it will hopefully extend much further into the future.

Tree-ring growth of Scots pine, Common beech and Pedunculate oak under future climate in northeastern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurasinski, Gerald; Scharnweber, Tobias; Schröder, Christian; Lennartz, Bernd; Bauwe, Andreas

2017-04-01

Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus syl- vestris L.) at three pure stands, and for Common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested with a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R2s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates depending on the position along the climatic gradient. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that in Northeastern Germany Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas Common beech and Pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak in the region.

Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P.; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G. W.

2017-01-01

Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered. PMID:28898262

Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G W

2017-01-01

Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.

Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

2017-12-01

A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on agriculture,human health, management of urban infrastructure and water resources.

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2016-01-01

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

PubMed Central

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks. PMID:25752680

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

PubMed

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-08-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

2016-08-01

Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the Catchment Simulator modelling frameworks based on the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO) model, which was expanded to estimate discharge by incorporating the effects of forest-type transition across the whole of Japan. The results indicated that, by the 2090s, annual runoff will increase above present-day values. Increases in annual variation in runoff by the 2090s was predicted to be around 14.1% when using the MRI-GCM data and 44.4% when using the HadGEM data. Analysis by long-term projection showed the largest increases in runoff in the 2090s were related to the type of forest, such as evergreen. Increased runoff can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including increased flooding events, worsened water quality, habitat destruction and changes to the forest moisture-retaining function. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on water generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Gabriel; Wessels, Martin; Wüest, Alfred

2016-09-01

Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal - and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.

PubMed

Langham, Gary M; Schuetz, Justin G; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Langham, Gary M.; Schuetz, Justin G.; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U.; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation. PMID:26333202

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, M.R; Singels, A.; Ruane, A. C.

2015-01-01

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate?

PubMed Central

Cunze, Sarah; Heydel, Felix; Tackenberg, Oliver

2013-01-01

Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species. PMID:23894290

Future changes in biogenic isoprene emissions: how might they affect regional and global atmospheric chemistry?

Treesearch

Christine Wiedinmyer; Xuexi Tie; Alex Guenther; Ron Neilson; Claire Granier

2006-01-01

Isoprene is emitted from vegetation to the atmosphere in significant quantities, and it plays an important role in the reactions that control tropospheric oxidant concentrations. As future climatic and land-cover changes occur, the spatial and temporal variations, as well as the magnitude of these biogenic isoprene emissions, are expected to change. This paper presents...

Estimating the effects of extreme weather on transportation infrastructure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

Climate change, already taking place, is expected to become more pronounced in the future. Current damage assessment models for extreme weather events, such as FEMAs Hazus, do not take the full impact to transportation systems into consideration. ...

Climate Change and Hydrology of a Snow-fed Watershed in Western Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, V. P.; Bharati, L.; Dhaubanjar, S.

2017-12-01

Many river basins across the globe are experiencing varying degrees of impacts from climate change. Snow-fed watersheds are expected to be affected even more. Chamelia, a tributary of Mahakali river basin, is a snow-fed river in the western Nepal with catchment area of 1,603 km2above the confluence with Mahakali River. Forest cover (40%) and rainfed agriculture (28%) covers more than two-third of the watershed. Topography varies from 505 to 7,090 m. According to the data from Department of Electricity Development (DoED) this watershed contains 14 licensed hydropower projects of varying capacities. Climate change may affect various aspects of the hydropower project, all of which are hinged around hydrology. This study simulated hydrological response of Chamelia watershed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as an input for a hydro-economic model to analyze the water-energy-food nexus. The model was calibrated for the period of 2001-2007 and validated for 2008-2013 and then used to examine the streamflow response to climate change. Future climates for near-future (2020-2045), mid-future (2046-2070) and far-future (2071-2095) were considered based on CSIRO-CCAM Regional Circulation Model (RCM), derived from ACCESS1, downloaded from South Asia Cordex for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and then bias corrected using linear scaling method. Results, based on climate date at Station-103 showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 1.2°C (1.4°C), 1.5°C (2.8°C), and 2.3°C (2.6°C), respectively, from the baseline. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods, in the same order, are projected to increase by 1.1°C (1.5°C), 2.1°C (3.6°C), and 2.5°C (4.7°C), respectively, from the baseline. Precipitation in the other hand under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10.2% (10.4%), 7.6% (13.6%), and 3.1% (12.2%), respectively, from the baseline. As a result of the projected changes, streamflow is expected to alter at varying rates for the three future periods of time and two scenarios. The ultimate results of this nexus study are useful for water infrastructure planning to ensure long-term sustainability in the changing context.

Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chand, Savin S.; Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, Hua; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-02-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (~20-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events--and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events--around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.

Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; Hutjes, Ronald; Holtslag, Albert

2016-10-01

The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3-5 and 2-5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7-8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2-6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011-60

Treesearch

Jeff Prestemon; Uma Shankar; Aijun Xiu; K. Talgo; D. Yang; Ernest Dixon IV; Donald McKenzie; Karen L. Abt

2016-01-01

Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades.Weestimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (...

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance. Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte

2014-10-01

The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure)more » revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.« less

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

How to manage future groundwater resource of China under climate change and urbanization: An optimal stage investment design from modern portfolio theory.

PubMed

Hua, Shanshan; Liang, Jie; Zeng, Guangming; Xu, Min; Zhang, Chang; Yuan, Yujie; Li, Xiaodong; Li, Ping; Liu, Jiayu; Huang, Lu

2015-11-15

Groundwater management in China has been facing challenges from both climate change and urbanization and is considered as a national priority nowadays. However, unprecedented uncertainty exists in future scenarios making it difficult to formulate management planning paradigms. In this paper, we apply modern portfolio theory (MPT) to formulate an optimal stage investment of groundwater contamination remediation in China. This approach generates optimal weights of investment to each stage of the groundwater management and helps maximize expected return while minimizing overall risk in the future. We find that the efficient frontier of investment displays an upward-sloping shape in risk-return space. The expected value of groundwater vulnerability index increases from 0.6118 to 0.6230 following with the risk of uncertainty increased from 0.0118 to 0.0297. If management investment is constrained not to exceed certain total cost until 2050 year, the efficient frontier could help decision makers make the most appropriate choice on the trade-off between risk and return. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges.

PubMed

Alley, Richard B

2003-09-15

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

Analysis and modelling of surface Urban Heat Island in 20 Canadian cities under climate and land-cover change.

PubMed

Gaur, Abhishek; Eichenbaum, Markus Kalev; Simonovic, Slobodan P

2018-01-15

Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) is an urban climate phenomenon that is expected to respond to future climate and land-use land-cover change. It is important to further our understanding of physical mechanisms that govern SUHI phenomenon to enhance our ability to model future SUHI characteristics under changing geophysical conditions. In this study, SUHI phenomenon is quantified and modelled at 20 cities distributed across Canada. By analyzing MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensed surface temperature at the cities over 2002-2012, it is found that 16 out of 20 selected cities have experienced a positive SUHI phenomenon while 4 cities located in the prairies region and high elevation locations have experienced a negative SUHI phenomenon in the past. A statistically significant relationship between observed SUHI magnitude and city elevation is also recorded over the observational period. A Physical Scaling downscaling model is then validated and used to downscale future surface temperature projections from 3 GCMs and 2 extreme Representative Concentration Pathways in the urban and rural areas of the cities. Future changes in SUHI magnitudes between historical (2006-2015) and future timelines: 2030s (2026-2035), 2050s (2046-2055), and 2090s (2091-2100) are estimated. Analysis of future projected changes indicate that 15 (13) out of 20 cities can be expected to experience increases in SUHI magnitudes in future under RCP 2.6 (RCP 8.5). A statistically significant relationship between projected future SUHI change and current size of the cities is also obtained. The study highlights the role of city properties (i.e. its size, elevation, and surrounding land-cover) towards shaping their current and future SUHI characteristics. The results from this analysis will help decision-makers to manage Canadian cities more efficiently under rapidly changing geophysical and demographical conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on future concentrated solar power (CSP) production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian

2017-02-01

Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar power plants, the amount of solar radiation incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be invariable over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering several decades indeed confirm long-term changes in this quantity. In a previous study (Wild et al. 2015, Solar Energy)1 we examined how the latest generation of climate models (CMIP5) projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, future power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. In the present complementary study, we use the CMIP5 model projections to estimate possible future changes in power output from Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems due to changing climate and air pollution levels up to the mid-21th century. The results indicate a potential for future increases in CSP production in many parts of the globe, with few exceptions such as the North of India and the irrelevant polar areas. Compared to the changes in PV production, the estimated future production changes by CSP are larger by a factor of 4.

Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde; Raga, Graciela B.

2017-12-01

In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980-2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980-2005, are projected by 2040-2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075-2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20-60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.

Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate Storm Events

EPA Science Inventory

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge...

Projected impacts of climate change on environmental suitability for malaria transmission in West Africa.

PubMed

Yamana, Teresa K; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2013-10-01

Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of environmental suitability for malaria transmission by altering temperature and rainfall patterns; however, the local and global impacts of climate change on malaria transmission are uncertain. We assessed the effect of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa. We coupled a detailed mechanistic hydrology and entomology model with climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in vectorial capacity, an indication of the risk of human malaria infections, resulting from changes in the availability of mosquito breeding sites and temperature-dependent development rates. Because there is strong disagreement in climate predictions from different GCMs, we focused on the GCM projections that produced the best and worst conditions for malaria transmission in each zone of the study area. Simulation-based estimates suggest that in the desert fringes of the Sahara, vectorial capacity would increase under the worst-case scenario, but not enough to sustain transmission. In the transitional zone of the Sahel, climate change is predicted to decrease vectorial capacity. In the wetter regions to the south, our estimates suggest an increase in vectorial capacity under all scenarios. However, because malaria is already highly endemic among human populations in these regions, we expect that changes in malaria incidence would be small. Our findings highlight the importance of rainfall in shaping the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in future climates. Even under the GCM predictions most conducive to malaria transmission, we do not expect to see a significant increase in malaria prevalence in this region.

Incremental dynamical downscaling for probabilistic analysis based on multiple GCM projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakazuki, Y.

2015-12-01

A dynamical downscaling method for probabilistic regional scale climate change projections was developed to cover an uncertainty of multiple general circulation model (GCM) climate simulations. The climatological increments (future minus present climate states) estimated by GCM simulation results were statistically analyzed using the singular vector decomposition. Both positive and negative perturbations from the ensemble mean with the magnitudes of their standard deviations were extracted and were added to the ensemble mean of the climatological increments. The analyzed multiple modal increments were utilized to create multiple modal lateral boundary conditions for the future climate regional climate model (RCM) simulations by adding to an objective analysis data. This data handling is regarded to be an advanced method of the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method previously developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007). The incremental handling for GCM simulations realized approximated probabilistic climate change projections with the smaller number of RCM simulations. Three values of a climatological variable simulated by RCMs for a mode were used to estimate the response to the perturbation of the mode. For the probabilistic analysis, climatological variables of RCMs were assumed to show linear response to the multiple modal perturbations, although the non-linearity was seen for local scale rainfall. Probability of temperature was able to be estimated within two modes perturbation simulations, where the number of RCM simulations for the future climate is five. On the other hand, local scale rainfalls needed four modes simulations, where the number of the RCM simulations is nine. The probabilistic method is expected to be used for regional scale climate change impact assessment in the future.

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

2015-12-01

In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Scott L.; Millar, Constance I.; Collins, Brandon M.

2010-04-01

Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

2011-01-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, S.; Kenney, M.; Chen, R. S.; Baptista, S. R.; Quattrochi, D. A.

2011-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation's activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: -How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? -Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? -Are we adapting successfully? -What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? -Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Mountain Climates on the Move: Implications for Past and Future Vegetation Shifts in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wason, J. W., III; Dovciak, M.; Bevilacqua, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change in the northeastern United States is expected to shift climatic (temperature) envelopes for spruce-fir forests upslope and northward decreasing their area in the region by 2100. Coarse scale landscape models however, may not incorporate heterogeneity in climatic conditions in mountains that can create climatic refugia for species in high-elevation spruce-fir forests. To determine spatial and temporal trends in climate of mountain spruce-fir forests we measured microclimate at 98 forest plots in 2012 and 2013 on 12 mountains in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. By linking regional climate trends with our spatial climate data we calculated elevational shifts in temperature envelopes during the last 50 years. Additionally we linked our spatial dataset to a range of future climate conditions for 2100 based on Representative Concentration Pathways (1 to 5°C warming). We hypothesized that climates have already changed to an extent that spruce-fir forests should begin to respond and that future climate conditions may shift suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests beyond their current range. We found that regional climate change over the last 50 years has resulted in warming of 0.66 and 1.62°C for average annual daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures in the region. When linked to our spatial microclimate model, this warming results in a 100 (Tmax) and 312m (Tmin) upslope shift in temperature envelopes. Future climate projections suggest that by 2100 Tmax may shift upslope between 152 and 758m for the 1 and 5°C scenarios respectively, while Tmin may shift upslope between 192 and 962m. Spruce-fir forests typically occupy an elevation range of ~500m suggesting that the climate experienced in these forests 50 years ago may not be found within their elevation range by 2100. These results are discussed in the context of responses of tree populations and growth rates observed along the elevation gradients of northeastern United States.

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively. PMID:29664961

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.

PubMed

Thapa, Sunil; Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.

Securing the Future of Water, Energy and Food: Can solutions for the currently stressed countries provide the direction for ensuring global water sustainability and food security in the 21st century?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2014-12-01

Where will the food for the 9 billion people we expect on Earth by 2050 come from? The answer to this question depends on where the water and the energy for agriculture will come from. This assumes of course, that our primary food source will continue to be based on production on land, and that irrigation and the use of fertilizers to improve production are needed to address climate shocks and deteriorating soil health. Given this, establishing an economically, environmentally and physically feasible pathway to achieve water, energy and food security in the face of a changing climate is crucial to planetary well-being. A central hypothesis of the proposed paper is that innovation towards agricultural sustainability in countries such as India and China, that have large populations relative to their water, energy and arable land endowment, and yet have opportunity for improvement in productivity metrics such as crop yield per unit water or energy use, can show us the way to achieve global water-food-energy sustainability. These countries experience a monsoonal climate, which has a high frequency of climate extremes (more floods and droughts, and a short rainy season) relative to the developed countries in temperate climates. Global climate change projections indicate that the frequency and severity of extremes may pose a challenge in the future. Thus, strategies that are resilient to such extremes in monsoonal climates may be of global value in a warmer, more variable world. Much of the future population growth is expected to occur in Africa, S. America and S. Asia. Targeting these regions for higher productivity and resilience is consequently important from a national security perspective as well. Through this paper, we propose to (a) layout in detail, the challenges faced by the water, energy and food sectors in emerging countries, with specific focus on India and China and (b) provide the scientific background for an integrated systems analytic approach to formulate solutions at varying scales that can be employed globally. Such coordinated analyses is important for an examination of the future water sustainability in the face of changing climate, agricultural trends, environmental impacts and new energy choices.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

Treesearch

Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2012-01-01

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brink, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Loh, Rhonda; Price, Jonathan; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-06-05

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate.The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future.We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the “current” (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected “end-of-century” (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

2016-11-21

We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

Uncertainties associated with quantifying climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea.

PubMed

Kolstad, Erik W; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-03-01

Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8-11% (with SDs of 3-5%) by 2010-2039 and 22-29% (SDs of 9-12%) by 2070-2099. Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate-health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health.

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, J.J.; Shafer, S.L.; White, D.; Kareiva, P.; Maurer, E.P.; Blaustein, A.R.; Bartlein, P.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Quantifying Future PM2.5 and Associated Health Effects Due to Changes in US Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, J. R.; Val Martin, M.; Ford, B.; Zelasky, S.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Fischer, E. V.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from landscape fires has been shown to adversely affect visibility, air quality and and health across the US. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and human activities. Predictions based on climate scenarios and future land cover projections that consider socioeconomic development suggest that fire activity will rise dramatically over the next decades. As PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality and morbidity rates, increases in emissions from landscape fires may alter the health burden on the US population. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences for PM2.5 and health over the US from 2000 to 2100. We employ the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the IPCC RCP projections. Within CESM, we use a process-based global fire parameterization to project future climate-driven and human-caused fire emissions. From these simulations, we determine the current and future impact on PM2.5 concentrations and visibility for different regions of the US, and we also calculate the mortality attributable to PM2.5 and wildfire-specific PM2.5 using existing concentration-response functions. Results show that although total PM2.5 concentrations in the US are projected to be similar in 2100 as in 2000, the dominant source of PM2.5 will change. Under the RCP8.5 climate projection and SSP3 population projection, non-fire emissions (mostly anthropogenic) are projected to decrease, but PM2.5 from CONUS and non-US wildfires is projected to increase from approximately 20% of all PM2.5 in 2000 to 80% of all PM2.5 in 2100. Furthermore, although the US population is expected to decline between 2000 and 2100, the mortality attributable to wildfire smoke is expected to increase from 25,000 deaths per year in 2000 to 75,000 deaths per year in 2100.

The influence of an extended Atlantic hurricane season on inland flooding potential in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Monica H.; Cohen, Sagy

2017-03-01

Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20 % more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the southeastern United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. An analysis of the timing of tropical cyclones that impact these river basins found that most occur during the low-discharge season and thus rarely produce riverine flooding conditions. However, an extension of the current hurricane season of June-November could encroach upon the high-discharge seasons in these basins, increasing the susceptibility for riverine hurricane-induced flooding. Our results indicate that 28-180 % more days would be at risk of flooding from an average tropical cyclone with an extension of the hurricane season to May-December (just 2 months longer). Future research should aim to extend this analysis to all river basins in the United States that are impacted by tropical cyclones in order to provide a bigger picture of which areas are likely to experience the worst increases in flooding risk due to a probable extension of the hurricane season with expected global climate change in the near future.

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

PubMed

Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

2018-03-01

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

Modelling the impacts of global change on concentrations of Escherichia coli in an urban river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalliffier-Verne, Isabelle; Leconte, Robert; Huaringa-Alvarez, Uriel; Heniche, Mourad; Madoux-Humery, Anne-Sophie; Autixier, Laurène; Galarneau, Martine; Servais, Pierre; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

2017-10-01

Discharges of combined sewer system overflows (CSOs) affect water quality in drinking water sources despite increasing regulation and discharge restrictions. A hydrodynamic model was applied to simulate the transport and dispersion of fecal contaminants from CSO discharges and to quantify the impacts of climate and population changes on the water quality of the river used as a drinking water source in Québec, Canada. The dispersion model was used to quantify Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations at drinking water intakes. Extreme flows during high and low water events were based on a frequency analysis in current and future climate scenarios. The increase of the number of discharges was quantified in current and future climate scenarios with regards to the frequency of overflows observed between 2009 and 2012. For future climate scenarios, effects of an increase of population were estimated according to current population growth statistics, independently of local changes in precipitation that are more difficult to predict than changes to regional scale hydrology. Under ;business-as-usual; scenarios restricting increases in CSO discharge frequency, mean E. coli concentrations at downstream drinking water intakes are expected to increase by up to 87% depending on the future climate scenario and could lead to changes in drinking water treatment requirements for the worst case scenarios. The greatest uncertainties are related to future local discharge loads. Climate change adaptation with regards to drinking water quality must focus on characterizing the impacts of global change at a local scale. Source water protection planning must consider the impacts of climate and population change to avoid further degradation of water quality.

Higher Resolution for Water Resources Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumenil-Gates, L.

2009-12-01

The Earth system science community is providing an increasing range of science results for the benefit of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. In addressing questions such as reducing poverty and hunger, achieving sustainable global development, or by defining adaptation strategies for climate change, one of the key issues will be the quantitative description and understanding of the global water cycle, which will allow useful projections of available future water resources for several decades ahead. The quantities of global water cycle elements that we observe today - and deal with in hydrologic and atmospheric modeling - are already very different from the natural flows as human influence on the water cycle by storage, consumption and edifice has been going on for millennia, and climate change is expected to add more uncertainty. In this case Tony Blair’s comment that perhaps the most worrying problem is climate change does not cover the full story. We shall also have to quantify how the human demand for water resources and alterations of the various elements of the water cycle may proceed in the future: will there be enough of the precious water resource to sustain current and future demands by the various sectors involved? The topics that stakeholders and decision makers concerned with managing water resources are interested in cover a variety of human uses such as agriculture, energy production, ecological flow requirements to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services, or human cultural aspects, recreation and human well-being - all typically most relevant at the regional or local scales, this being quite different from the relatively large-scale that the IPCC assessment addresses. Halfway through the Millennium process, the knowledge base of the global water cycle is still limited. The sustainability of regional water resources is best assessed through a research program that combines high-resolution climate and hydrologic models for expected future scenarios (as in the IPCC ensembles) with appropriate observational data under current conditions in order to benchmark the models’ accuracy. Expected future changes in water availability could then be characterized and appropriate adaptation action designed in co-operation with the water use community. In situ observations of water cycle variables can also be used and developed together with remote sensing data from space to provide initial data for global seasonal or decadal forecasting and monitoring of global change in less well observed regions of the world.

Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerreiro, Selma B.; Dawson, Richard J.; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elizabeth; Ford, Alistair

2018-03-01

Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate risks due to their agglomeration of people, buildings and infrastructure. Differences in methodology, hazards considered, and climate models used limit the utility and comparability of climate studies on individual cities. Here we assess, for the first time, future changes in flood, heat-waves (HW), and drought impacts for all 571 European cities in the Urban Audit database using a consistent approach. To capture the full range of uncertainties in natural variability and climate models, we use all climate model runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario to calculate Low, Medium and High Impact scenarios, which correspond to the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of each hazard for each city. We find that HW days increase across all cities, but especially in southern Europe, whilst the greatest HW temperature increases are expected in central European cities. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions intensify in southern European cities while river flooding worsens in northern European cities. However, the high impact scenario projects that most European cities will see increases in both drought and river flood risks. Over 100 cities are particularly vulnerable to two or more climate impacts. Moreover, the magnitude of impacts exceeds those previously reported highlighting the substantial challenge cities face to manage future climate risks.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

2017-08-01

Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Madsen, H.; Drews, M.

2015-06-01

The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984-2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071-2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Heidi Lada

This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected population density to estimate how many people will be affected by rising temperatures. Our results show that over 4 billion people annually will experience prolonged periods of Danger heat index conditions, under which heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely. In addition, a majority of people subjected to prolonged high heat stress conditions are located in tropical developing nations, such as those in south and Southeast Asia, where population density is high and large numbers of people work outdoors. Many countries in these regions lack the resources to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the large numbers of people likely to experience heat-related illness and death.

Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

2014-10-09

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

The Effectiveness of Taiwan Building Energy Regulation under the influence of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Yu-Teng; Huang, Kuo-Tsang

2017-04-01

Building energy consumption comprises circa 40% of the national annual energy usage in Taiwan, and the majority proportion is attributed to the cooling apparatus usage. As cooling energy is closely related to the outdoor climate, it is expected that the future global climate change would amplify its demand. Considering the building energy regulation criteria are the minimum requirements that the building has to be complied with, this study tried to investigate whether the current building energy regulation in Taiwan, initiated in 2013, would still be capable of maintaining the energy use in the future as today's level. The research adopted EnergyPlus to simulate the annual cooling energy use of several virtual office building cases with the constructed hourly future weather data under future climate change scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 defined by IPCC. The virtual building cases are generated by a structured orthogonal array with each case is constituted by 10 building design parameters. The results revealed that the building energy consumption based on the current regulation criteria failed to maintain at the same level in the future as oppose to nowadays. By comparing to the current cooling energy usage, it would rise by 13% and 22% in RCP45 and RCP85, respectively, at the end of this century. This research further parametrically studied the potential cooling energy mitigation strategies and proposed effective building envelope design schemes in order to neutralize the future building energy increase.

Smart climate ensemble exploring approaches: the example of climate impacts on air pollution in Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaire, Vincent; Colette, Augustin; Menut, Laurent

2016-04-01

Because of its sensitivity to weather patterns, climate change will have an impact on air pollution so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projections. However, at present, such impact assessment lack multi-model ensemble approaches to address uncertainties because of the substantial computing cost. Therefore, as a preliminary step towards exploring large climate ensembles with air quality models, we developed an ensemble exploration technique in order to point out the climate models that should be investigated in priority. By using a training dataset from a deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for 8 regions in Europe and developed statistical models that could be used to estimate future air pollutant concentrations. Applying this statistical model to the whole EuroCordex ensemble of climate projection, we find a climate penalty for six subregions out of eight (Eastern Europe, France, Iberian Peninsula, Mid Europe and Northern Italy). On the contrary, a climate benefit for PM2.5 was identified for three regions (Eastern Europe, Mid Europe and Northern Italy). The uncertainty of this statistical model challenges limits however the confidence we can attribute to associated quantitative projections. This technique allows however selecting a subset of relevant regional climate model members that should be used in priority for future deterministic projections to propose an adequate coverage of uncertainties. We are thereby proposing a smart ensemble exploration strategy that can also be used for other impacts studies beyond air quality.

The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies

PubMed Central

Hurlstone, Mark J.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R.; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a “foregone-gain”—incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts—rather than as a “loss”—incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts. PMID:25501009

The effect of framing and normative messages in building support for climate policies.

PubMed

Hurlstone, Mark J; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a "foregone-gain"--incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts--rather than as a "loss"--incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review.

PubMed

Hellberg, Rosalee S; Chu, Eric

2016-08-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.

Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Alder, J.R.; Allan, A.M.

2011-01-01

We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model grids in an attempt to capture more of the climatic detail associated with processes such as topographic forcing than can be captured by general circulation models (GCMs). The simulations were run using output from four GCMs. All simulations span the present (for example, 1968-1999), common periods of the future (2040-2069), and two simulations continuously cover 2010-2099. The trace gas concentrations in our simulations were the same as those of the GCMs: the IPCC 20th century time series for 1968-1999 and the A2 time series for simulations of the future. We demonstrate that RegCM3 is capable of producing present day annual and seasonal climatologies of air temperature and precipitation that are in good agreement with observations. Important features of the high-resolution climatology of temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture are consistently reproduced in all model runs over WNA and ENA. The simulations provide a potential range of future climate change for selected decades and display common patterns of the direction and magnitude of changes. As expected, there are some model to model differences that limit interpretability and give rise to uncertainties. Here, we provide background information about the GCMs and the RegCM3, a basic evaluation of the model output and examples of simulated future climate. We also provide information needed to access the web applications for visualizing and downloading the data, and give complete metadata that describe the variables in the datasets.

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Waichler, Scott R.

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience formore » the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.« less

A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Mukherjee, Sayanti

2017-01-01

Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months.

A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand

PubMed Central

Nateghi, Roshanak

2017-01-01

Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months. PMID:29155862

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, John L.; Shinneman, Douglas

2017-01-01

IntroductionClimate change is expected to impose significant tension on the geographic distribution of tree species. Yet, tree species range shifts may be delayed by their long life spans, capacity to withstand long periods of physiological stress, and dispersal limitations. Wildfire could theoretically break this biological inertia by killing forest canopies and facilitating species redistribution under changing climate. We investigated the capacity of wildfire to modulate climate-induced tree redistribution across a montane landscape in the central Rocky Mountains under three climate scenarios (contemporary and two warmer future climates) and three wildfire scenarios (representing historical, suppressed, and future fire regimes).MethodsDistributions of four common tree species were projected over 90 years by pairing a climate niche model with a forest landscape simulation model that simulates species dispersal, establishment, and mortality under alternative disturbance regimes and climate scenarios.ResultsThree species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir) declined in abundance over time, due to climate-driven contraction in area suitable for establishment, while one species (ponderosa pine) was unable to exploit climate-driven expansion of area suitable for establishment. Increased fire frequency accelerated declines in area occupied by Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, and it maintained local abundance but not range expansion of ponderosa pine.ConclusionsWildfire may play a larger role in eliminating these conifer species along trailing edges of their distributions than facilitating establishment along leading edges, in part due to dispersal limitations and interspecific competition, and future populations may increasingly depend on persistence in locations unfavorable for their establishment.

Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No-Analog Future for California Birds?

PubMed Central

Stralberg, Diana; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Howell, Christine A.; Snyder, Mark A.; Alexander, John D.; Wiens, John A.; Root, Terry L.

2009-01-01

By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages. PMID:19724641

Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-07-01

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Kyun; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Deo, Ravinesh; Lee, Bo-Ra

2015-07-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilises the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6.6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

Drought Prediction till 2100 Under RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, H. R.; Park, C. K.; Deo, R. C.

2014-12-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilizes the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

Analysis of potential future droughts limiting maize production, in the Luvuvhu River catchment area, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masupha, Teboho Elisa; Moeletsi, Mokhele Edmond

2018-06-01

Recurring droughts associated with global warming have raised major concern for the agricultural sector, particularly vulnerable small-scale farmers who rely on rain-fed farming such as in the Luvuvhu River catchment. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) were calculated to assess drought on a 120-day maturing maize crop based on outputs of the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 under RCP 4.5 emission scenario, for the period 1980/81-2089/90. Results by SPEI show that 40-54% of the agricultural seasons during the base period experienced mild drought conditions (SPEI 0 to -0.99), equivalent to a recurrence of once in two seasons. However, WRSI results clearly indicated that stations in the drier regions (annual rainfall <600 mm) of the catchment experienced mild drought (WRSI 70 - 79) corresponding to satisfactory crop performance every season. Results further showed overall mild to moderate droughts in the beginning of the near-future climate period (2020/21-2036/37) with SPEI values not decreasing below -1.5. These conditions are then expected to change during the far-future climate period (2055/56-2089/90), whereby results on the expected crop performance predicted significantly drier conditions (p < 0.05). This study provided information on how farmers in the area can prepare for future agricultural seasons, while there is sufficient time to implement strategies to reduce drought risk potential. Thus, integrated interventions could provide best options for improving livelihoods and building the capability of farmers to manage climate change-related stresses.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are small, but generally consistent with the detected trends of the 20th century. Based on the simulations, extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and more frequent in winter, while a general decrease of extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

Climate change, urbanization and disease: summer in the city….

PubMed

Reiner, Robert C; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W

2015-03-01

Climate change and urbanization can alter the burden of human diseases. The tropics, a region that includes the poorest populations and highest disease burdens, are expected to get slightly hotter and substantially more urban. Studies have projected changing burdens under different climate or urbanization scenarios, but it remains unclear what will happen if both happen at once. Interactions could amplify disease burdens, improve health overall, or shift burdens around. Social planners need better data on contemporary seasonal disease incidence patterns across the spectrum of climate, urbanicity and socio-economic status. How climate change, urbanization and health interact must be understood to adequately plan for the future. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Plant-herbivore interactions along elevational gradient: Comparison of field and common garden data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rokaya, Maan Bahadur; Dostálek, Tomáš; Münzbergová, Zuzana

2016-11-01

In response to climate change, various organisms tend to migrate to higher elevations and latitudes. Unequal migration rates of plants and animals are expected to result in changes in the type and intensity of their interactions such as plant-herbivore interactions. In the present study, we studied the extent of herbivore damage in Salvia nubicola along an elevational gradient in Manang, central Nepal. A common garden experiment was also carried out by sowing seeds collected from different populations along the elevational gradient. As expected, the extent of herbivore damage in the field was significantly lower at higher elevations, and it increased with the population size and at sites without shrubs. In the common garden experiment, herbivore damage was higher in plants originating from lower elevations and from more open habitats. While higher herbivore pressure in the field at lower elevations may suggest that plants will be better protected against herbivores at lower elevations, the common garden study demonstrated the opposite. A possible explanation could be that plants from higher elevations have to adapt to extreme conditions, and lower palatability is a side effect of these adaptations. Thus, S. nubicola in the Himalayan region is likely to survive the expected higher herbivore pressure caused by an upward shift of herbivores under future climate change. Future studies should attempt to elucidate generality of such a conclusion by studying multiple species along similar gradients. Our results from comparison of the field and common garden study suggest that future experiments need to include comparisons in common environments to understand the expected response of plants to changes in herbivore pressure.

Assessment of projected climate change in the Carpathian Region using the Holdridge life zone system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Kis, Anna; Pongrácz, Rita; Sümegi, Pál

2018-01-01

In this paper, expected changes in the spatial and altitudinal distribution patterns of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) types are analysed to assess the possible ecological impacts of future climate change for the Carpathian Region, by using 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation. The distribution patterns of HLZ types are characterized by the relative extent, the mean centre and the altitudinal range. According to the applied projections, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) the altitudinal ranges are likely to expand in the future, (b) the lower and upper altitudinal limits as well as the altitudinal midpoints may move to higher altitudes, (c) a northward shift is expected for most HLZ types and (d) the magnitudes of these shifts can even be multiples of those observed in the last century. Related to the northward shifts, the HLZ types warm temperate thorn steppe and subtropical dry forest can also appear in the southern segment of the target area. However, a large uncertainty in the estimated changes of precipitation patterns was indicated by the following: (a) the expected change in the coverage of the HLZ type cool temperate steppe is extremely uncertain because there is no consensus among the projections even in terms of the sign of the change (high inter-model variability) and (b) a significant trend in the westward/eastward shift is simulated just for some HLZ types (high temporal variability). Finally, it is important to emphasize that the uncertainty of our results is further enhanced by the fact that some important aspects (e.g. seasonality of climate variables, direct CO2 effect, etc.) cannot be considered in the estimating process.

Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Jin, L; Futter, M N; Caesar, J; Barbour, E; Butterfield, D; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Hutton, C; Leckie, H D

2015-06-01

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.

Future Projections of Heating and Cooling Degree Days in a Changing Climate of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

The use of the degree days method is the most practical way to forsee the future changes in energy demand due to climate change-induced heating and cooling. Since the temperatures in Turkey vary considerably on a regional basis, the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065 have been respectively examined with reference to the period of 1981-2000, taking the mean temperature values into consideration in order to make the most accurate estimation. The future projections were applied based on the RCP8.5 (BAU-business as usual case) emission scenario using regional climate model called RegCM. According to the result of the study, it is projected that the numbers of heating degree days (HDDs) will decrease in the whole country, whereas the frequency of cooling degree days(CDDs) will increase in general. This decrease in HDDs and the increase in CDDs will be higher in the period of 2046-2065 than in the period of 2016-2035. These findings are also consistent with the expectation of temperature increases over these regions for the future period, obtained from the studies of climate modeling for the Mediterranean Basin and Turkey as well. Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Bogazici University Research Fund Grant Number 12220.

Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review.

PubMed

Lotfy, Wael M

2014-11-01

Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt.

Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review

PubMed Central

Lotfy, Wael M.

2013-01-01

Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people’s health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt. PMID:25685530

Past, present, and future design of urban drainage systems with focus on Danish experiences.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2011-01-01

Climate change will influence the water cycle substantially, and extreme precipitation will become more frequent in many regions in the years to come. How should this fact be incorporated into design of urban drainage systems, if at all? And how important is climate change compared to other changes over time? Based on an analysis of the underlying key drivers of changes that are expected to affect urban drainage systems the current problems and their predicted development over time are presented. One key issue is management of risk and uncertainties and therefore a framework for design and analysis of urban structures in light of present and future uncertainties is presented.

TOWARDS AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF SIMULATED AND OBSERVED CHANGES IN EXTREME PRECIPITATION

EPA Science Inventory

The evaluation of climate model precipitation is expected to reveal biases in simulated mean and extreme precipitation which may be a result of coarse model resolution or inefficiencies in the precipitation generating mechanisms in models. The analysis of future extreme precip...

Associations between extreme precipitation and acute gastro-intestinal illness due to cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in an urban Canadian drinking water system (1997-2009).

PubMed

Chhetri, Bimal K; Takaro, Tim K; Balshaw, Robert; Otterstatter, Michael; Mak, Sunny; Lem, Marcus; Zubel, Marc; Lysyshyn, Mark; Clarkson, Len; Edwards, Joanne; Fleury, Manon D; Henderson, Sarah B; Galanis, Eleni

2017-10-01

Drinking water related infections are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Understanding the current links between these infections and environmental factors is vital to understand and reduce the future burden of illness. We investigated the relationship between weekly reported cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis (n = 7,422), extreme precipitation (>90th percentile), drinking water turbidity, and preceding dry periods in a drinking water system located in greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1997-2009) using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality, secular trend, and the effect of holidays on reporting. We found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis 4-6 weeks after extreme precipitation. The effect was greater following a dry period. Similarly, extreme precipitation led to significantly increased turbidity only after prolonged dry periods. Our results suggest that the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis increases with extreme precipitation, and that the effects are more pronounced after a prolonged dry period. Given that extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with climate change, it is important to further understand the risks from these events, develop planning tools, and build resilience to these future risks.

Effect assessment of Future Climate Change on Water Resource and Snow Quality in cold snowy regions in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Y.; Nakatsugawa, M.; Kudo, K.

2017-12-01

It is predicted that the effects of global warming on everyday life will be clearly seen in cold, snowy regions such as Hokkaido. In relation to climate change, there is the concern that the warmer climate will affect not only water resources, but also local economies, in snowy areas, when air temperature increases and snowfall decreases become more marked in the future. Communities whose economies are greatly dependent on snow as a tourism resource, such as for winter sports and snow events, will lose large numbers of visitors because of the shortened winter season. This study was done as a basic study to provide basic ideas for planning adaptation strategies against climate change based on the local characteristics of a cold, snowy region. By taking dam catchment basins in Hokkaido as the subject areas and by using the climate change prediction data that correspond to IPCCAR5, the local-level influence of future climate change on snowfall and snow quality in relation to water resources and winter sports was quantitatively assessed. The water budget was examined for a dam catchment basin in Hokkaido under the present climate (September 1984 to August 2004) and under the future climate (September 2080 to August 2100) by using rainfall, snowfall and evapotranspiration estimated by the LoHAS heat and water balance analysis model.The examination found that, under the future climate, the net annual precipitation will decrease by up to 200 mm because of decreases in precipitation and in runoff height that will result from increased evapotranspiration. The predicted decrease in annual hydro potential of snowfall was considered to greatly affect the dam reservoir operation during the snowmelt season. The snow quality analysis by SNOWPACK revealed that the future snow would become granular earlier than it does at present. Most skiers' snow preferences, from best to worst, are light dry snow (i.e., fresh snow), lightly compacted snow, compacted snow and, finally, granular snow. If the late-season snow on the slope becomes granular earlier than it has in previous years, then the ski resort's snow conditions will deteriorate. Businesses that receive economic benefits from snow have developed in cold, snowy areas. This study demonstrates that the economic benefits of snow are expected to be greatly reduced by future climate change.

Future PMPs Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario: Focus on Dew Point Temperature Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okjeong, Lee; Sangdan, Kim

2016-04-01

According to future climate change scenarios, future temperature is expected to increase gradually. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the effects of these climate changes to predict Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMPs). In this presentation, PMPs will be estimated with future dew point temperature change. After selecting 174 major storm events from 1981 to 2005, new PMPs will be proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2,025, 4,900, 10,000 and 19,600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. Also, orographic transposition factor will be applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous Korean PMPs estimation reports. After estimating dew point temperature using future temperature and representative humidity information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under dew point temperature change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Designing Flood Management Systems for Joint Economic and Ecological Robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Grantham, T.; Brown, C. M.; Poff, N. L.

2015-12-01

Freshwater ecosystems across the United States are threatened by hydrologic change caused by water management operations and non-stationary climate trends. Nonstationary hydrology also threatens flood management systems' performance. Ecosystem managers and flood risk managers need tools to design systems that achieve flood risk reduction objectives while sustaining ecosystem functions and services in an uncertain hydrologic future. Robust optimization is used in water resources engineering to guide system design under climate change uncertainty. Using principles introduced by Eco-Engineering Decision Scaling (EEDS), we extend robust optimization techniques to design flood management systems that meet both economic and ecological goals simultaneously across a broad range of future climate conditions. We use three alternative robustness indices to identify flood risk management solutions that preserve critical ecosystem functions in a case study from the Iowa River, where recent severe flooding has tested the limits of the existing flood management system. We seek design modifications to the system that both reduce expected cost of flood damage while increasing ecologically beneficial inundation of riparian floodplains across a wide range of plausible climate futures. The first robustness index measures robustness as the fraction of potential climate scenarios in which both engineering and ecological performance goals are met, implicitly weighting each climate scenario equally. The second index builds on the first by using climate projections to weight each climate scenario, prioritizing acceptable performance in climate scenarios most consistent with climate projections. The last index measures robustness as mean performance across all climate scenarios, but penalizes scenarios with worse performance than average, rewarding consistency. Results stemming from alternate robustness indices reflect implicit assumptions about attitudes toward risk and reveal the tradeoffs between using structural and non-structural flood management strategies to ensure economic and ecological robustness.

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts.

PubMed

Rutherford, William A; Painter, Thomas H; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C

2017-03-10

Drylands represent the planet's largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness-changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-03-01

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody B.; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

Adapting land management to emergence of novel site conditions on the continental lowlands of SE Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel.; Gálos, Borbala; Gribovszki, Zoltan; Lakatos, Ferenc; Borovics, Attila; Csóka, György; Führer, Ernő; Illés, Gábor; Rasztovits, Ervin; Somogyi, Zoltán; Bartholy, Judit

2017-04-01

The rapid progress of site potential change, caused by the shift of climate zones is a serious problem of lowland management in Southeast Europe. In forestry, the resilience potential of main, climate-dependent tree species (e.g. spruce, beech, sessile oak) and ecosystems is limited at their lower (xeric) limits of distribution. A conventional mitigation measure for adaptive forest management is the return to nature-close management. Severe drought- and biotic impacts in forests indicate however the urgency of fundamental changes in forest policy. To provide assistance in selecting climate-tolerant provenances, species and adaptive technologies for future site conditions is therefore critical. A simplified Decision Support System has been developed for Hungary, keeping conventional elements of site potential assessment. Projections are specified for discrete site types. Processing forest inventory, landcover and geodata, the System provides GIS-supported site information and projections for individual forest compartments, options for tree species better tolerating future climate scenarios as well as their expected yield and risks. Data respectively projections are available for recent and current conditions, and for future reference periods until 2100. Also non-forest site conditions in the novel grassland (steppe) climate zone appear in projections. Experiences for proper management on these sites are however scarce.

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

Introduction. Pliocene climate, processes and problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Valdes, P.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Francis, J.E.; Sellwood, B.W.

2009-01-01

Climate predictions produced by numerical climate models, often referred to as general circulation models (GCMs), suggest that by the end of the twenty-first century global mean annual surface air temperatures will increase by 1.1-6.4??C. Trace gas records from ice cores indicate that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are already higher than at any time during the last 650000 years. In the next 50 years, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to reach a level not encountered since an epoch of time known as the Pliocene. Uniformitarianism is a key principle of geological science, but can the past also be a guide to the future? To what extent does an examination of the Pliocene geological record enable us to successfully understand and interpret this guide? How reliable are the 'retrodictions' of Pliocene climates produced by GCMs and what does this tell us about the accuracy of model predictions for the future? These questions provide the scientific rationale for this Theme Issue. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. PMID:21304515

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Technical Note: Linking climate change and downed woody debris decomposition across forests of the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Matthew B.; Woodall, Christopher W.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Fraver, Shawn; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Forest carbon (C) is stored through photosynthesis and released via decomposition and combustion. Relative to C fixation in biomass, much less is known about C depletion through decomposition of woody debris, particularly under a changing climate. It is assumed that the increased temperatures and longer growing seasons associated with projected climate change will increase the decomposition rates (i.e., more rapid C cycling) of downed woody debris (DWD); however, the magnitude of this increase has not been previously addressed. Using DWD measurements collected from a national forest inventory of the eastern United States, we show that the residence time of DWD may decrease (i.e., more rapid decomposition) by as much as 13% over the next 200 years, depending on various future climate change scenarios and forest types. Although existing dynamic global vegetation models account for the decomposition process, they typically do not include the effect of a changing climate on DWD decomposition rates. We expect that an increased understanding of decomposition rates, as presented in this current work, will be needed to adequately quantify the fate of woody detritus in future forests. Furthermore, we hope these results will lead to improved models that incorporate climate change scenarios for depicting future dead wood dynamics in addition to a traditional emphasis on live-tree demographics.

Effects of Climate and Fuels Management on Wildfire Occurrence, Size, Severity and Emissions in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Fites, J. A.; Keyser, A.

2015-12-01

Annual wildfire burned area in federally managed Sierra Nevada forests has increased by more than 10,000 ha per decade since the early 1970s. At the same time, recent years have seen some extremely large fires compared to the historical record, with significant areas of moderate to high severity fire (e.g., McNally 2002, Rim 2013, King 2014 fires). Changes to fuels and fire regimes due to fire suppression and land use, as well as warming temperatures and the occurrence of drought, are thought to be significant factors contributing to increased risks of large, severe fires in Sierra Nevada forests. Over 70% of the vegetated area in federally managed forests in the Sierra Nevada is classified as having altered fuels and fire regimes, while average annual temperature in the Sierra Nevada has been above the long term mean for all but four years in the past two decades. As climate is expected to continue warming for decades to come, we explored fuels management scenarios as the primary tools available to modify risks of large, severe wildfires. We developed experimental statistical models of fire occurrence, fire size, and high severity burned area, to explore the interaction between climate and altered fuels conditions. These models were applied to historical climate conditions, a sample of future climate projections, and to both current fuels conditions and a range of scenarios for fuels treatments. Emissions from wildfires were estimated using the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Our models project that average annual burned area in the Sierra Nevada will more than double by mid-century. Similarly, particulate and other pollution emissions from Sierra Nevada wildfires are projected to more than double, even if future fire severity does not change. Fuels treatment scenarios significantly reduced simulated future burned area and emissions below untreated projections. High severity burned area responded to both climate and fuels treatments. A sensitivity analysis indicated that in areas where the fraction of highly altered fuels is high, successfully restoring fuels to prehistoric conditions could more than compensate for expected climate change effects on fire severity by mid-century.

Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, M. Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Akanda, Ali Shafqat

2017-11-01

In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071-2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias-corrected and uncorrected extremes, can be considered in future policy making.

Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

2015-12-01

The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

The climate of Kazakhstan: an examination of current conditions and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Andrew; Ali, Maged; Althonayan, Abraham; Akhmetov, Kanat; Gazdiyeva, Bella; Ghalaieny, Mohamed; Kurmanbayeva, Aygul; McCann, Meg; Mukanov, Yelzhas; Tucker, Allan; Zhumabayeva, Sara

2017-04-01

Environmental Health is an essential aspect of any successful society; indeed, it was recognised as a cornerstone of the UN's Agenda 21 action plan for sustainable development. Clean air and water, safe food, minimal exposure to toxic materials, disaster preparedness, planning for climate change and effective waste management are all fundamental to a healthy population and socio-economic progress. In recent years, particularly since 2000, Kazakhstan's economic development has been exceptional. However, health indicators such as life expectancy are lagging behind nations with similar economies. It is likely that this "health lag" is, to a large extent, caused or aggravated by the poor state of Kazakhstan's natural environment. In this paper, we focus on the role of recent and future climate change in Kazakhstan. We examine ECMWF re-analysis data, data derived directly from observations and CMIP5 climate projections for the region to understand how climate may impact environmental health in the country. This analysis is part of a larger project that aims to take a more holistic approach to the analysis of environmental health in a developing nation.

Hindcasting and forecasting of climatology for Gilbert Bay, Labrador: A marine protected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Sara J.

Gilbert Bay is a marine protected area (MPA) on the southeastern coast of Labrador, Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. Future climate change in the region is expected to have an impact on the coastal marine environment and local communities in the future. This thesis presents results from a hindcast and forecasts study of physical oceanographic conditions for Gilbert Bay. The first section of this thesis examines the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. The seasonal and interannual variability of the near surface atmospheric parameters are described. Seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a physical ocean model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). The results of the hindcast model suggest that the atmospheric interannual variability of the Gilbert Bay region is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A warming trend observed in the subpolar North Atlantic was influenced by the local climate of coastal Labrador during the recent decade of 1995-2005. The second section of this thesis presents a model forecast of the impact of climate change on the physical conditions within Gilbert Bay over the next century. Climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment and the US Climate Change Science Program Project (US CCSP), specifically the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), were used. Atmospheric parameters and related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter for three SRES are simulated with the GOTM, and are then compared to the hindcast study results. The results suggest that the water column during future winters will become warmer in the second half of the 21st century. In the summer the atmosphere will be warmer and more humid. Cloudiness and precipitation are expected to increase. This will have an impact on the vertical stratification of the water column. The surface mixed layer is expected to become warmer, fresher and much shallower than seen in the past. The stratification below the seasonal thermocline will weaken and vertical mixing will intensify. A significant change in surface sea-ice coverage is also suggested by the forecast. Continuing reduction in sea-ice formation during the winter months as highlighted by the hindcast study is expected to affect living conditions of the neighbouring coastal communities around the bay, specifically by increasing the danger of travelling across the bay. A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem may be favourable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of travelling across the bay by snowmobile.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-01

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-12

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Effect of climate change on stormwater runoff characteristics and treatment efficiencies of stormwater retention ponds: a case study from Denmark using TSS and Cu as indicator pollutants.

PubMed

Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Vezzaro, Luca; Birch, Heidi; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2016-01-01

This study investigated the potential effect of climate changes on stormwater pollution runoff characteristics and the treatment efficiency of a stormwater retention pond in a 95 ha catchment in Denmark. An integrated dynamic stormwater runoff quality and treatment model was used to simulate two scenarios: one representing the current climate and another representing a future climate scenario with increased intensity of extreme rainfall events and longer dry weather periods. 100-year long high-resolution rainfall time series downscaled from regional climate model projections were used as input. The collected data showed that total suspended solids (TSS) and total copper (Cu) concentrations in stormwater runoff were related to flow, rainfall intensity and antecedent dry period. Extreme peak intensities resulted in high particulate concentrations and high loads but did not affect dissolved Cu concentrations. The future climate simulations showed an increased frequency of higher flows and increased total concentrations discharged from the catchment. The effect on the outlet from the pond was an increase in the total concentrations (TSS and Cu), whereas no major effect was observed on dissolved Cu concentrations. Similar results are expected for other particle bound pollutants including metals and slowly biodegradable organic substances such as PAH. Acute toxicity impacts to downstream surface waters seem to be only slightly affected. A minor increase in yearly loads of sediments and particle-bound pollutants is expected, mainly caused by large events disrupting the settling process. This may be important to consider for the many stormwater retention ponds existing in Denmark and across the world.

Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Walker, John F.; Kenow, Kevin P.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Garrison, Paul J.; Hanson, Paul C.; Hunt, Randall J.

2013-01-01

F statewide, and an increase in precipitation of 1”–2”. However, summer precipitation in the northern part of the state is expected to be less and winter precipitation will be greater. By the end of the 21st century, the magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to intensify. Such climatic changes have altered, and would further alter hydrological, chemical, and physical properties of inland lakes. Lake-dependent wildlife sensitive to changes in water quality, are particularly susceptible to lake quality-associated habitat changes and are likely to suffer restrictions to current breeding distributions under some climate change scenarios. We have selected the common loon (Gavia immer) to serve as a sentinel lake-dependent piscivorous species to be used in the development of a template for linking primary lake-dependent biota endpoints (e.g., decline in productivity and/or breeding range contraction) to important lake quality indicators. In the current project, we evaluate how changes in freshwater habitat quality (specifically lake clarity) may impact common loon lake occupancy in Wisconsin under detailed climate-change scenarios. In addition, we employ simple land-use/land cover and habitat scenarios to illustrate the potential interaction of climate and land-use/land cover effects. The methods employed here provide a template for studies where integration of physical and biotic models is used to project future conditions under various climate and land use change scenarios. Findings presented here project the future conditions of lakes and loons within an important watershed in northern Wisconsin – of importance to water resource managers and state citizens alike.

Impacts of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

2017-05-01

A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The "business-as-usual" climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979-2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979-2008), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights ( H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

PubMed Central

Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales. PMID:26700871

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

PubMed

Friggens, Megan M; Finch, Deborah M

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.

Climate Forecasts and Water Resource Management: Applications for a Developing Country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Rogers, P.

2002-05-01

While the quantity of water on the planet earth is relatively constant, the demand for water is continuously increasing. Population growth leads to linear increases in water demand, and economic growth leads to further demand growth. Strzepek et al. calculate that with a United Nations mean population estimate of 8.5 billion people by 2025 and globally balanced economic growth, water use could increase by 70% over that time (Strzepek et al., 1995). For developing nations especially, supplying water for this growing demand requires the construction of new water supply infrastructure. The prospect of designing and constructing long life-span infrastructure is clouded by the uncertainty of future climate. The availability of future water resources is highly dependent on future climate. With realization of the nonstationarity of climate, responsible design emphasizes resiliency and robustness of water resource systems (IPCC, 1995; Gleick et al., 1999). Resilient systems feature multiple sources and complex transport and distribution systems, and so come at a high economic and environmental price. A less capital-intense alternative to creating resilient and robust water resource systems is the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Such forecasts provide adequate lead time and accuracy to allow water managers and water-based sectors such as agriculture or hydropower to optimize decisions for the expected water supply. This study will assess the use of seasonal climate forecasts from regional climate models as a method to improve water resource management in systems with limited water supply infrastructure

Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

2017-12-01

We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

Assessment of climate change impacts on runoff in China using climate elasticity and multiple CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C.; Hu, B. X.; Wang, P.; Xu, K.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal and is expected to alter the temporal-spatial patterns of regional water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2012) water budget data and climate projections from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results indicate a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.2 to 3.3) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.3 to -0.2) across China. The P elasticity is larger in northeast and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. Climate projections suggest that there is large uncertainty involved among the GCM simulations, but most project a consistent change in P (or PET) over China at the mean annual scale. During the future period of 2071-2100, the mean annual P will likely increase in most parts of China particularly the western regions, while the mean annual PET will likely increase in the whole China especially the southern regions due to future increases in temperature. Moreover, larger increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Compared with the baseline 1971-2000, the arid regions and humid regions of China will likely become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively.

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Open access to Water Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation: proof-of-concept for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lottle, Lorna; Arheimer, Berit; Gyllensvärd, Frida; Dejong, Fokke; Ludwig, Fulco; Hutjes, Ronald; Martinez, Bernat

2017-04-01

Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is still in the development phase and will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate and climate dependent sectors in Europe and worldwide. C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers and selected sectorial impacts. The aim of these indicators will be to support adaptation and mitigation. This presentation will show one service already operational as a proof-of-concept of this future climate service. The project "Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation" (SWICCA) has developed a sectorial information service for water management. It offers readily available climate-impact data, for open access from the web-site http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/. The development is user-driven with the overall goal to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation of water management across Europe. The service is co-designed by consultant engineers and agencies in 15 case-studies spread out over the continent. SWICCA has an interactive user-interface, which shows maps and graphs, and facilitates data download in user-friendly formats. In total, more than 900 open dataset are given for various hydrometeorological (and a few socioeconomical) variables, model ensembles, resolutions, time-periods and RCPs. The service offers more than 40 precomputed climate impact indicators (CIIs) and transient time-series of 4 essential climate variables ECVs) with high spatial and temporal resolution. To facilitate both near future and far future assessments, SWICCA provides the indicators for different time ranges; normally, absolute values are given for a reference period (e.g. 1971-2000) and the expected future changes for different 30-year periods, such as early century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). An ensemble of model results is always given to indicate confidence in the estimates. The SWICCA demonstrator also includes user guidance, information sheets, tutorials, and links to other relevant websites. The aim of this service is to provide research data and guidance for climate impact assessments in the water sector. The main target group is consulting engineers (so called Purveyors) working with climate change adaptation in the water sector. By using indicators, climate impact assessments can be done without having to run a full production chain from raw climate model results - instead the indicators can be included in the local workflow with local methods applied, to facilitate decision-making and strategies to meet the future. Working with real users will ensure that useful data is inserted into the C3S Climate Data Store (CDS).

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2010-01-01

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

Impacts of Considering Climate Variability on Investment Decisions in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K.; Block, P.; Rosegrant, M.; Diao, X.

2005-12-01

In Ethiopia, climate extremes, inducing droughts or floods, are not unusual. Monitoring the effects of these extremes, and climate variability in general, is critical for economic prediction and assessment of the country's future welfare. The focus of this study involves adding climate variability to a deterministic, mean climate-driven agro-economic model, in an attempt to understand its effects and degree of influence on general economic prediction indicators for Ethiopia. Four simulations are examined, including a baseline simulation and three investment strategies: simulations of irrigation investment, roads investment, and a combination investment of both irrigation and roads. The deterministic model is transformed into a stochastic model by dynamically adding year-to-year climate variability through climate-yield factors. Nine sets of actual, historic, variable climate data are individually assembled and implemented into the 12-year stochastic model simulation, producing an ensemble of economic prediction indicators. This ensemble allows for a probabilistic approach to planning and policy making, allowing decision makers to consider risk. The economic indicators from the deterministic and stochastic approaches, including rates of return to investments, are significantly different. The predictions of the deterministic model appreciably overestimate the future welfare of Ethiopia; the predictions of the stochastic model, utilizing actual climate data, tend to give a better semblance of what may be expected. Inclusion of climate variability is vital for proper analysis of the predictor values from this agro-economic model.

Viticultural zoning in Portugal: current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraga, H.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.

2012-04-01

Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.

Effects of elevated [CO2] on maize defense against mycotoxigenic Fusarium verticillioides

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Maize is by quantity the most important C4 cereal crop; however, future climate changes are expected to increase maize susceptibility to mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens and reduce productivity. While rising atmospheric [CO2] is a driving force behind the warmer temperatures and drought, which aggrava...

Expression of cyanobacterial FBP/SBPase in soybean prevents yield depression under future climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predictions suggest that current crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet global food and energy demands. Based on theory and experimental studies, overexpression of the photosynthetic enzyme sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase (SBPase) is expected to enhance C3 crop photosynthesis and yields. H...

Modeling Historical and Projected Future Atmospheric Nitrogen Loading to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

Land use and climate change are expected to alter key processes in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and can potentially exacerbate the impact of excess nitrogen. Atmospheric sources are one of the largest loadings of nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay watershed. In this study, we explore...

Soil modulates the effect of precipitation seasonality on bioenergy crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Questions/Methods Future climate change scenarios remain uncertain with respect to precipitation amounts and variability. In the U.S. Great Plains, spring precipitation is expected to decrease in the lower Great Plains but increase 20%–40% in the upper Mississippi Valley, suggesting pot...

Comparison of Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Characteristics in WRF-Simulated Precipitation to Gauge and Radar Observations

EPA Science Inventory

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological data are used for USEPA multimedia air and water quality modeling applications, within the CMAQ modeling system to estimate wet deposition and to evaluate future climate and land-use scenarios. While it is not expected that hi...

Long-term thinning alters ponderosa pine reproduction in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Kelsey N. Flathers; Thomas E. Kolb; John B. Bradford; Kristen M. Waring; W. Keith Moser

2016-01-01

The future of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) forests in the southwestern United States is uncertain because climate-change-induced stresses are expected to increase tree mortality and place greater constraints on regeneration. Silvicultural treatments, which include thinning, are increasingly being used to address forest health concerns by...

An estimated cost of lost climate regulation services caused by thawing of the Arctic cryosphere.

PubMed

Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goodstein, Eban S; Huntington, Henry P

2013-12-01

Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

PubMed

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

2017-12-31

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Cohen, Erika C.; Sun, Shanlei; Aldridge, Heather D.; Zhou, Decheng; Zhang, Liangxia; Zhang, Yang

2017-11-01

This study examines the relative roles of climatic variables in altering annual runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century, using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress Index model, WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. The results suggest that precipitation has been the primary control of runoff variation during the latest decades, but the role of temperature will outweigh that of precipitation in most regions if future climate change follows the projections of climate models instead of the historical tendencies. Besides these two key factors, increasing air humidity is projected to partially offset the additional evaporative demand caused by warming and consequently enhance runoff. Overall, the projections from 20 climate models suggest a high degree of consistency on the increasing trends in temperature, precipitation, and humidity, which will be the major climatic driving factors accounting for 43-50, 20-24, and 16-23 % of the runoff change, respectively. Spatially, while temperature rise is recognized as the largest contributor that suppresses runoff in most areas, precipitation is expected to be the dominant factor driving runoff to increase across the Pacific coast and the southwest. The combined effects of increasing humidity and precipitation may also surpass the detrimental effects of warming and result in a hydrologically wetter future in the east. However, severe runoff depletion is more likely to occur in the central CONUS as temperature effect prevails.

Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

2015-12-01

With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta’s biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as ‘extremely invasive’, with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is ‘extremely invasive’ with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is ‘highly invasive’ with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change. PMID:27768758

Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases.

PubMed

Booth, Mark

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems.

PubMed

Ladwig, Laura M; Ratajczak, Zak R; Ocheltree, Troy W; Hafich, Katya A; Churchill, Amber C; Frey, Sarah J K; Fuss, Colin B; Kazanski, Clare E; Muñoz, Juan D; Petrie, Matthew D; Reinmann, Andrew B; Smith, Jane G

2016-02-01

Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems.

The impacts of climate changes in the renewable energy resources in the Caribbean region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J

2010-02-01

Assessment of renewable energy resources such as surface solar radiation and wind current has great relevance in the development of local and regional energy policies. This paper examines the variability and availability of these resources as a function of possible climate changes for the Caribbean region. Global climate changes have been reported in the last decades, causing changes in the atmospheric dynamics, which affects the net solar radiation balance at the surface and the wind strength and direction. For this investigation, the future climate changes for the Caribbean are predicted using the parallel climate model (PCM) and it is coupledmore » with the numerical model regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) to simulate the solar and wind energy spatial patterns changes for the specific case of the island of Puerto Rico. Numerical results from PCM indicate that the Caribbean basin from 2041 to 2055 will experience a slight decrease in the net surface solar radiation (with respect to the years 1996-2010), which is more pronounced in the western Caribbean sea. Results also indicate that the easterly winds have a tendency to increase in its magnitude, especially from the years 2070 to 2098. The regional model showed that important areas to collect solar energy are located in the eastern side of Puerto Rico, while the more intense wind speed is placed around the coast. A future climate change is expected in the Caribbean that will result in higher energy demands, but both renewable energy sources will have enough intensity to be used in the future as alternative energy resources to mitigate future climate changes.« less

Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada.

PubMed

Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Du, Xinzhong; Wang, Junye

2017-12-01

Proper management of blue and green water resources is important for the sustainability of ecosystems and for the socio-economic development of river basins such as the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada. For this reason, quantifying climate change impacts on these water resources at a finer temporal and spatial scale is often necessary. In this study, we used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess climate change impacts on fresh water resources, focusing explicitly on the impacts to both blue and green water. We used future climate data generated by the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) with a spatial resolution of 0.22°×0.22° (~25km) for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results projected the climate of the ARB to be wetter by 21-34% and warmer by 2-5.4°C on an annual time scale. Consequently, the annual average blue and green water flow was projected to increase by 16-54% and 11-34%, respectively, depending on the region, future period, and emission scenario. Furthermore, the annual average green water storage at the boreal region was expected to increase by 30%, while the storage was projected to remain fairly stable or decrease in other regions, especially during the summer season. On average, the fresh water resources in the ARB are likely to increase in the future. However, evidence of temporal and spatial heterogeneity could pose many future challenges to water resource planners and managers. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Garcia, Serge M.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.

2010-01-01

World population is expected to grow from the present 6.8 billion people to about 9 billion by 2050. The growing need for nutritious and healthy food will increase the demand for fisheries products from marine sources, whose productivity is already highly stressed by excessive fishing pressure, growing organic pollution, toxic contamination, coastal degradation and climate change. Looking towards 2050, the question is how fisheries governance, and the national and international policy and legal frameworks within which it is nested, will ensure a sustainable harvest, maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and adapt to climate change. This paper looks at global fisheries production, the state of resources, contribution to food security and governance. It describes the main changes affecting the sector, including geographical expansion, fishing capacity-building, natural variability, environmental degradation and climate change. It identifies drivers and future challenges, while suggesting how new science, policies and interventions could best address those challenges. PMID:20713390

The Estimation of Future Pump Capacity for the Urban Drainage System under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Narae; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Yonsoo; Lee, Jongso; Kim, Hungsoo

2013-04-01

In the recent years, flash flood and local heavy rainfall have been frequently occurred in Korea and this may be due to the climate change. Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and IPCC AR5 reported new greenhouse gas scenario called RCPs(Representative concentration pathways) which are becoming an interesting subject in the field of water resources. These days, the urban areas in the Korean Peninsula have been suffered from the floods, almost every year, by the localized heavy rainfall and this abnormal rainfall may be due to the climate change. Also, the runoff in the urban area has increased due to the rapid urbanization and so the current design rainfall could not be proper any more for accommodating the abnormal runoff capacity. When we determine the frequency of drainage facilities, the maximum flood discharge from the recorded rainfall intensity is used as the design capacity of the facilities. However, there is a need to examine the future rainfall tendency for the re-establishment of the design criteria of the facilities under the climate change, since the recorded rainfall intensity does not reflect the trend of the abnormal rainfall which can be occurred. This study tries to analyze the variability and trend of future rainfall using RCP scenarios and estimate the future capacity at existing pumping station for the urban drainage system. The future projection periods are set to the next 90 years(2011-2100) and are divided into three cases; Target I : 2011~2040 yrs, Target II : 2041~2070 yrs, and Target III : 2071~2100 yrs. The study area is Incheon-city, Korea which has 9 pumping stations. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario which is the worst scenario of RCPs, the Target I design rainfall is increased by 20%, Target II increased by 33%, and Target III increased by 74% compared with the reference period(1970-2010). When considering the impact of climate change, 3 of 9 pumping stations are expected to have no difficulty in the future rainfall. But, the capacities of 6 pumping stations will not be sufficient for the future rainfall and runoff. Therefore, it is expected to construct more pumping stations allowable 6 times of existing pump capacity especially for Target III(2071-2100). ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research was supported by a grant 'The development of disaster risk assessment technique for flood prevention facilities considering the multi risk factors' [NEMA-NH-2010-33] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

2016-01-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Examining the Performance of Statistical Downscaling Methods: Toward Matching Applications to Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, K. W.; Lanzante, J. R.; Adams-Smith, D.

2017-12-01

Several challenges exist when seeking to use future climate model projections in a climate impacts study. A not uncommon approach is to utilize climate projection data sets derived from more than one future emissions scenario and from multiple global climate models (GCMs). The range of future climate responses represented in the set is sometimes taken to be indicative of levels of uncertainty in the projections. Yet, GCM outputs are deemed to be unsuitable for direct use in many climate impacts applications. GCM grids typically are viewed as being too coarse. Additionally, regional or local-scale biases in a GCM's simulation of the contemporary climate that may not be problematic from a global climate modeling perspective may be unacceptably large for a climate impacts application. Statistical downscaling (SD) of climate projections - a type of post-processing that uses observations to inform the refinement of GCM projections - is often used in an attempt to account for GCM biases and to provide additional spatial detail. "What downscaled climate projection is the best one to use" is a frequently asked question, but one that is not always easy to answer, as it can be dependent on stakeholder needs and expectations. Here we present results from a perfect model experimental design illustrating how SD method performance can vary not only by SD method, but how performance can also vary by location, season, climate variable of interest, amount of projected climate change, SD configuration choices, and whether one is interested in central tendencies or the tails of the distribution. Awareness of these factors can be helpful when seeking to determine the suitability of downscaled climate projections for specific climate impacts applications. It also points to the potential value of considering more than one SD data product in a study, so as to acknowledge uncertainties associated with the strengths and weaknesses of different downscaling methods.

Climate-growth relationships of Abies spectabilis in a central Himalayan treeline ecotone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Niels; Kaczka, Ryszard J.; Schickhoff, Udo

2017-04-01

Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The large spectrum of responses is not fully understood. In the framework of investigating the sensitivity and response of a near-natural treeline ecotone in Rolwaling Himal, Nepal, to climate warming we present results from dendroclimatological analyses of Abies spectabilis (Himalayan Fir) increment cores. Tree ring width was measured and cross-dated. After standardization, the chronology was correlated with temperature and precipitation variables. Preliminary results point to positive correlations with autumn temperature and precipitation. We will present improved climate-growth relationships. The resulting climate - tree growth relationships may be used as an indication of future growth patterns and treeline dynamics under climate change conditions.

Water quality under increased biofuel production and future climate change and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Yan, E.

2015-12-01

Over the past decade, biofuel has emerged as an important renewable energy source to supplement gasoline and reduce the associated greenhouse gas emission. Many countries, for instant, have adopted biofuel production goals to blend 10% or more of gasoline with biofuels within 10 to 20 years. However, meeting these goals requires sustainable production of biofuel feedstock which can be challenging under future change in climate and extreme weather conditions, as well as the likely impacts of biofuel feedstock production on water quality and availability. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have performed watershed hydrology and water quality analyses for the Ohio River Basin. The basin is one of the major biofuel feedstock producing region in the United States, which also currently contributes about half of the flow and one third of phosphorus and nitrogen loadings to the Mississippi River that eventually flows to the Gulf of Mexico. The analyses integrate future scenarios and climate change and biofuel development through various mixes of landuse and agricultural management changes and examine their potential impacts on regional and local hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The results of the study are expected to provide much needed insight about the sustainability of large-scale biofuel feedstock production under the future climate change and uncertainty, and helps to further optimize the feedstock production taking into consideration the water-use efficiency.

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE PAGES

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.; ...

2015-11-17

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Framework for a hydrologic climate-response network in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lent, Robert M.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2015-01-01

Many climate-related hydrologic variables in New England have changed in the past century, and many are expected to change during the next century. It is important to understand and monitor these changes because they can affect human water supply, hydroelectric power generation, transportation infrastructure, and stream and riparian ecology. This report describes a framework for hydrologic monitoring in New England by means of a climate-response network. The framework identifies specific inland hydrologic variables that are sensitive to climate variation; identifies geographic regions with similar hydrologic responses; proposes a fixed-station monitoring network composed of existing streamflow, groundwater, lake ice, snowpack, and meteorological data-collection stations for evaluation of hydrologic response to climate variation; and identifies streamflow basins for intensive, process-based studies and for estimates of future hydrologic conditions.

Implications of climate change predictions for UK cropping and prospects for possible mitigation: a review of challenges and potential responses.

PubMed

Rial-Lovera, Karen; Davies, W Paul; Cannon, Nicola D

2017-01-01

The UK, like the rest of the world, is confronting the impacts of climate change. Further changes are expected and they will have a profound effect on agriculture. Future crop production will take place against increasing CO 2 levels and temperatures, decreasing water availability, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This review contributes to research on agricultural practices for climate change, but with a more regional perspective. The present study explores climate change impacts on UK agriculture, particularly food crop production, and how to mitigate and build resilience to climate change by adopting and/or changing soil management practices, including fertilisation and tillage systems, new crop adoption and variety choice. Some mitigation can be adopted in the shorter term, such as changes in crop type and reduction in fertiliser use, but in other cases the options will need greater investment and longer adaptation period. This is the case for new crop variety development and deployment, and possible changes to soil cultivations. Uncertainty of future weather conditions, particularly extreme weather, also affect decision-making for adoption of practices by farmers to ensure more stable and sustainable production. Even when there is real potential for climate change mitigation, it can sometimes be more difficult to accomplish with certainty on-farm. Better future climate projections and long-term investments will be required to create more resilient agricultural systems in the UK in the face of climate change challenges. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Uncertainties Associated with Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Human Health: A Case Study for Diarrhea

PubMed Central

Kolstad, Erik W.; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. Objectives The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. Methods We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. Results The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8–11% (with SDs of 3–5%) by 2010–2039 and 22–29% (SDs of 9–12%) by 2070–2099. Conclusions Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate–health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. PMID:20929684

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahlstein, Irina; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan

2013-08-01

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.

Response of Debris-Covered and Clean-Ice Glaciers to Climate Change from Observations and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupper, S.; Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Roe, G.; Huybers, K. M.

2017-12-01

Debris-covered glaciers form a significant percentage of the glacier area and volume in many mountainous regions of the world, and respond differently to climatic forcings as compared to clean-ice glaciers. In particular, debris-covered glaciers tend to downwaste with very little retreat, while clean-ice glaciers simultaneously thin and retreat. This difference has posed a significant challenge to quantifying glacier sensitivity to climate change, modeling glacier response to future climate change, and assessing the impacts of recent and future glacier changes on mountain environments and downstream populations. In this study, we evaluate observations of the geodetic mass balance and thinning profiles of 1000 glaciers across the Himalayas from 1975 to 2016. We use this large sampling of glacier changes over multiple decades to provide a robust statistical comparison of mass loss for clean-ice versus debris-covered glaciers over a period relevant to glacier dynamics. In addition, we force a glacier model with a series of climate change scenarios, and compare the modeled results to the observations. We essentially ask the question, "Are our theoretical expectations consistent with the observations?" Our observations show both clean-ice and debris-covered glaciers, regionally averaged, thinned in a similar pattern for the first 25-year observation period. For the more recent 15-year period, clean ice glaciers show significantly steepened thinning gradients across the surface, while debris-covered glaciers have continued to thin more uniformaly across the surface. Our preliminary model results generally agree with these observations, and suggest that both glacier types are expected to have a thinning phase followed by a retreat phase, but that the timing of the retreat phase is much later for debris-covered glaciers. Thus, these early results suggest these two glacier types are dynamically very similar, but are currently in different phases of response to recent climate change. This difference in phase of response will be carefully evaluated by integrating the modeling and observational components of this work. In addition, we will use this integrated framework to assess the expected impacts of differing glacier response on glacier-related resources in the Himalayas over the coming century.

Climate Change in Nicaragua: a dynamical downscaling of precipitation and temperature.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porras, Ignasi; Domingo-Dalmau, Anna; Sole, Josep Maria; Arasa, Raul; Picanyol, Miquel; Ángeles Gonzalez-Serrano, M.°; Masdeu, Marta

2016-04-01

Climate Change affects weather patterns and modifies meteorological extreme events like tropical cyclones, heavy rainfalls, dry events, extreme temperatures, etc. The aim of this study is to show the Climate Change projections over Nicaragua for the period 2010-2040 focused on precipitation and temperature. In order to obtain the climate change signal, the results obtained by modelling a past period (1980-2009) were compared with the ones obtained by modelling a future period (2010-2040). The modelling method was based on a dynamical downscaling, coupling global and regional models. The MPI-ESM-MR global climate model was selected due to the better performance over Nicaragua. Moreover, a detailed sensitivity analysis for different parameterizations and schemes of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model was made to minimize the model uncertainty. To evaluate and validate the methodology, a comparison between model outputs and satellite measurements data was realized. The results show an expected increment of the temperature and an increment of the number of days per year with temperatures higher than 35°C. Monthly precipitation patterns will change although annual total precipitation will be similar. In addition, number of dry days are expected to increase.

Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E

2017-02-01

How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness-related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta-analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Flooding in the future--predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas.

PubMed

Ashley, R M; Balmforth, D J; Saul, A J; Blanskby, J D

2005-01-01

Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhan, Asli; Ünal, Yurdanur S.

2017-04-01

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios A. ILHAN ve Y. S. UNAL Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology In the study, 50 km resolution downscaled results of two different Earth System Models (ESM) HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM with regional climate model of RegCM are used to estimate present and future climate conditions over Mediterranean Basin. The purpose of this study is to compare the projections of two ESMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) over the region of interest seasonally and annually with 50 km resolution. Temperature and precipitation parameters for reference period (1971-2000) and future (2015-2100) are analyzed. The average temperature and total precipitation distributions of each downscaled ESM simulations were compared with observation data (Climate Research Unit-CRU data) to explore the capability of each model for the representation of the current climate. According to reference period values of CRU, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, it is seen that both models are warmer and wetter than observations and have positive temperature biases only around Caspian Sea and positive precipitation biases over Eastern and Central Europe. The future projections (from 2015 to 2100) of HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are compared with reference period (from 1971 to 2000) and analyzed for temperature and precipitation parameters. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES forced by RCP8.5 scenario produces higher temperatures than the MPI-ESM-MR. The reasons of this warming can be sensitivity of HadGEM2-ES to greenhouse gases and high radiative forcing (+8.5 W/m2). On the other hand, MPI-ESM produce more precipitation than HadGEM2-ES. In order to analyze regional responses of the climate model chains, five main regions are selected which are Turkey, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North Africa. The average biases of the HadGEM2-ES+RegCM and MPI-ESM-MR+RegCM model chains are also calculated for temperature and precipitation variables, and future expectations in each region are discussed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. According to the regional analysis, North Africa is the warmest region for HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR, and Central Europe warms up similar to North Africa in MPI-ESM-MR coupled simulations under both RCPs. In addition, Eastern Europe is expected to be the wettest region in both models and in both emission scenarios. On the other hand, the driest conditions are expected over Western Europe for MPI-ESM-MR and over Turkey for HadGEM2-ES under RCPs.

Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-05-01

Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-07-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which is expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of Global Climate Model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the Integrated Catchment Model of Phosphorus Dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivity) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by soil type (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy-loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-12-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which are expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as it is to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of global climate model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by quaternary geology (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Distribution, genetic diversity and potential spatiotemporal scale of alien gene flow in crop wild relatives of rice (Oryza spp.) in Colombia.

PubMed

Thomas, Evert; Tovar, Eduardo; Villafañe, Carolina; Bocanegra, José Leonardo; Moreno, Rodrigo

2017-12-01

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) of rice hold important traits that can contribute to enhancing the ability of cultivated rice (Oryza sativa and O. glaberrima) to produce higher yields, cope with the effects of climate change, and resist attacks of pests and diseases, among others. However, the genetic resources of these species remain dramatically understudied, putting at risk their future availability from in situ and ex situ sources. Here we assess the distribution of genetic diversity of the four rice CWRs known to occur in Colombia (O. glumaepatula, O. alta, O. grandiglumis, and O. latifolia). Furthermore, we estimated the degree of overlap between areas with suitable habitat for cultivated and wild rice, both under current and predicted future climate conditions to assess the potential spatiotemporal scale of potential gene flow from GM rice to its CWRs. Our findings suggest that part of the observed genetic diversity and structure, at least of the most exhaustively sampled species, may be explained by their glacial and post-glacial range dynamics. Furthermore, in assessing the expected impact of climate change and the potential spatiotemporal scale of gene flow between populations of CWRs and GM rice we find significant overlap between present and future suitable areas for cultivated rice and its four CWRs. Climate change is expected to have relatively limited negative effects on the rice CWRs, with three species showing opportunities to expand their distribution ranges in the future. Given (i) the sparse presence of CWR populations in protected areas (ii) the strong suitability overlap between cultivated rice and its four CWRs; and (iii) the complexity of managing and regulating areas to prevent alien gene flow, the first priority should be to establish representative ex situ collections for all CWR species, which currently do not exist. In the absence of studies under field conditions on the scale and extent of gene flow between cultivated rice and its Colombian CWRs, effective in situ conservation might best be achieved through tailor-made management plans and exclusion of GM rice cultivation in areas holding the most genetically diverse CWR populations. This may be combined with assisted migration of populations to suitable areas where rice is unlikely to be cultivated under current and future climate conditions.

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Charmian M.; Dear, Keith B. G.; McMichael, Anthony J.

2014-07-01

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

GCOS reference upper air network (GRUAN): Steps towards assuring future climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, P. W.; Vömel, H.; Bodeker, G.; Sommer, M.; Apituley, A.; Berger, F.; Bojinski, S.; Braathen, G.; Calpini, B.; Demoz, B.; Diamond, H. J.; Dykema, J.; Fassò, A.; Fujiwara, M.; Gardiner, T.; Hurst, D.; Leblanc, T.; Madonna, F.; Merlone, A.; Mikalsen, A.; Miller, C. D.; Reale, T.; Rannat, K.; Richter, C.; Seidel, D. J.; Shiotani, M.; Sisterson, D.; Tan, D. G. H.; Vose, R. S.; Voyles, J.; Wang, J.; Whiteman, D. N.; Williams, S.

2013-09-01

The observational climate record is a cornerstone of our scientific understanding of climate changes and their potential causes. Existing observing networks have been designed largely in support of operational weather forecasting and continue to be run in this mode. Coverage and timeliness are often higher priorities than absolute traceability and accuracy. Changes in instrumentation used in the observing system, as well as in operating procedures, are frequent, rarely adequately documented and their impacts poorly quantified. For monitoring changes in upper-air climate, which is achieved through in-situ soundings and more recently satellites and ground-based remote sensing, the net result has been trend uncertainties as large as, or larger than, the expected emergent signals of climate change. This is more than simply academic with the tropospheric temperature trends issue having been the subject of intense debate, two international assessment reports and several US congressional hearings. For more than a decade the international climate science community has been calling for the instigation of a network of reference quality measurements to reduce uncertainty in our climate monitoring capabilities. This paper provides a brief history of GRUAN developments to date and outlines future plans. Such reference networks can only be achieved and maintained with strong continuing input from the global metrological community.

Relationship between extreme Precipitation and Temperature over Japan: An analysis from Multi-GCMs and Multi-RCMs products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nayak, S.; Dairaku, K.; Takayabu, I.

2014-12-01

According to the IPCC reports, the concentration of CO­2 has been increasing and projected to be increased significantly in future (IPCC, 2012). This can have significant impacts on climate. For instance, Dairaku and Emori (2006) examined over south Asia by doubling CO2 and documented an increase in precipitation intensities during Indian summer monsoon. This would increase natural disasters such as floods, landslide, coastal disaster, erosion etc. Recent studies investigated whether the rate of increase of extreme precipitation is related with the rate expected by Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship (approximately 7% per degree temperature rise). In our study, we examine whether this rate can increase or decrease in the future regional climate scenarios over Japan. We have analysed the ensemble experiments by three RCMs(NHRCM, NRAMS, WRF) forced by JRA25 as well as three GCMs (CCSM4, MIROC5, MRI-GCM3) for the current climate (1981-2000) and future scenario (2081-2100, RCP4.5) over Japan. We have stratified the extreme (99th, 95th, 90th, 75th percentile) precipitation of daily sum and daily maximum of hourly precipitation intensities of wet events based on daily mean temperature in bins of 1°C width for annual as well as for each season (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON). The results indicate that precipitation intensity increases when temperature increases roughly up to 22 °C and further increase of temperature decreases the precipitation intensities. The obtained results are consistent and match with the observation (APHRODITE dataset) over Japan. The decrease of precipitation at higher temperature mainly can be found in JJA. It is also noticed that the rate of specific humidity is estimated higher during JJA than other seasons. The rate of increase of extreme precipitation is similar to the rate expected by CC relation except DJF (nearly twice of CC relation) in current climate. This rate becomes to be significantly larger in future scenario for higher temperatures than in current climate.Acknowledgement: This study is conducted as part of a research at NIED, Japan (PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Carpenter, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Walker, Brian

2013-07-01

Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucak, T.; Trolle, D.; Andersen, H. E.; Thodsen, H.; Erdoğan, Ş.; Levi, E. E.; Filiz, N.; Jeppesen, E.; Beklioğlu, M.

2016-12-01

Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyşehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (ɛ-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ɛ-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water sources are vitally important to sustain lake ecosystems and their ecosystem services.

Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

PubMed

Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

2015-08-01

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Allocation of a global carbon budget consistent with the future emergence of regional climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, L. J.; Frame, D. J.

2016-12-01

Understanding how the signal of anthropogenic climate warming emerges from the noise of internal variability is of crucial societal importance. An emerging body of evidence suggests there are substantive disparities between those countries which are expected to experience the most rapid emergence of climate change, and those countries which are responsible for the majority of cumulative CO2 emissions to date. Here, we demonstrate how a global carbon budget for keeping global warming below a specified threshold could be distributed at a national level, if those countries which experience the emergence of regional climate signals most rapidly were able to emit proportionally greater amounts of CO2 per capita. The potential implications and limitations of this approach are also discussed.

Water and nitrogen management effects on semiarid sorghum production and soil trace gas flux under future climate.

PubMed

Duval, Benjamin D; Ghimire, Rajan; Hartman, Melannie D; Marsalis, Mark A

2018-01-01

External inputs to agricultural systems can overcome latent soil and climate constraints on production, while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions from fertilizer and water management inefficiencies. Proper crop selection for a given region can lessen the need for irrigation and timing of N fertilizer application with crop N demand can potentially reduce N2O emissions and increase N use efficiency while reducing residual soil N and N leaching. However, increased variability in precipitation is an expectation of climate change and makes predicting biomass and gas flux responses to management more challenging. We used the DayCent model to test hypotheses about input intensity controls on sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) productivity and greenhouse gas emissions in the southwestern United States under future climate. Sorghum had been previously parameterized for DayCent, but an inverse-modeling via parameter estimation method significantly improved model validation to field data. Aboveground production and N2O flux were more responsive to N additions than irrigation, but simulations with future climate produced lower values for sorghum than current climate. We found positive interactions between irrigation at increased N application for N2O and CO2 fluxes. Extremes in sorghum production under future climate were a function of biomass accumulation trajectories related to daily soil water and mineral N. Root C inputs correlated with soil organic C pools, but overall soil C declined at the decadal scale under current weather while modest gains were simulated under future weather. Scaling biomass and N2O fluxes by unit N and water input revealed that sorghum can be productive without irrigation, and the effect of irrigating crops is difficult to forecast when precipitation is variable within the growing season. These simulation results demonstrate the importance of understanding sorghum production and greenhouse gas emissions at daily scales when assessing annual and decadal-scale management decisions' effects on aspects of arid and semiarid agroecosystem biogeochemistry.

The evolution of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation from 1960-2100 in simulations with the Chemistry Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberländer, Sophie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kubin, Anne; Abalichin, Janna; Meul, Stefanie; Jöckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

First results of research performed within the new DFG Research Unit Stratospheric Change and its Role for Climate Prediction (SHARP) will be presented. SHARP investigates past and future changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition to improve the understanding of global climate change and the accuracy of climate change predictions. SHARP combines the efforts of eight German research institutes and expertise in state-of-the-art climate modelling and observations. Within the scope of the scientific sub-project SHARP-BDC (Brewer-Dobson-Circulation) the past and future evolution of the BDC in an atmosphere with changing composition will be analysed. Radiosonde data show an annual mean cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere over the past few decades (Thompson and Solomon, 2005). Several independent model simulations indicate an acceleration of the BDC due to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations with direct impact on the exchange of air masses between the troposphere and stratosphere (e.g., Butchart et al, 2006). In contrast, from balloon-born measurements no significant acceleration in the BDC could be identified (Engel et al, 2008). This disagreement between observations and model analyses motivates further studies. For the future, expected changes in planetary wave generation and propagation in an atmosphere with increasing GHG concentrations are a major source of uncertainty for predicting future levels of stratospheric composition. To analyse and interpret the past and future evolution of the BDC, results from a transient multi-decadal simulation with the Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC will be presented. The model has been integrated from 1960 to 2100 following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of GHGs, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice. The role of increasing GHG concentrations for the BDC will be assessed by comparing the SCN2d-results with a ‘non-climate change' (NCC) simulation, in which greenhouse gases have been kept fixed at their 1960 concentrations.

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

When and What Meteorological Stresses Will Maize Crops Meet in the future in France?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify overall climatic conditions and therefore, suitability for cropping. Assessment of when and what meteorological stresses will crops meet in the future is highly useful for planners and land managers who can apply adaptation strategies to improve agricultural potentialities. We propose to evaluate the impacts of climate change on suitability for maize cropping in terms of ecophysiology (e.g., heat stress during grain filling), yield quality (e.g., thermal conditions on protein content) and cultural practices performance (e.g., days available for harvest according to risk of waterlogged soil compaction) in two French areas. The Midi-Pyrénées (southern) and Ile-de-France (northern) regions were chosen as representing the two distinct climates when dividing France into southern and northern parts. The Midi-Pyrénées region is a major irrigated maize producer but could become penalizing in the future because of heat and water stress. By contrast, northern France could become a more suitable area thanks to the expected increasing temperature. To confirm our assumptions, we used the method assessment for crop-climate suitability developed in Caubel et al. (2015) and based on the sub-annual analysis of agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate ARPEGE at the meso-scale SAFRAN (8 km resolution) for the two areas and forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario (similar to RCP 6.0). The evaluation was done for two distinct varieties in terms of precocity. Agroclimatic indicators characterizing water deficit and water excess impacts on crop were calculated for three soils with contrasting soil water reserves and depths. Finally, the evaluation was performed with a unique sowing date (the current one), and with an optimized sowing date according to water and thermal requirements for emergence. Consequences on phenology and therefore meteorological stresses enabled to decide where and when adapting the sowing date will be useful for improving maize potentiality. This work is carried out under the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France).

Modeling and dynamic monitoring of ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, L.; Ji, Lei; Tieszen, Larry L.; Bliss, N.B.

2008-01-01

Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented by the growing season integral of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is a measure of greenness that can be interpreted in terms of plant growth or photosynthetic activity (gross primary productivity). The approach illustrates the status and trends of ecosystem changes and separates the influences of climate and local site conditions from the influences of disturbances and land management.We emphasize the ability to quantify ecosystem processes, not simply changes in land cover, across the entire period of the remote sensing archive (Wylie and others, 2008). The method builds upon remotely sensed measures of vegetation greenness for each growing season. By itself, however, a time series of greenness often reflects annual climate variations in temperature and precipitation. Our method seeks to remove the influence of climate so that changes in underlying ecological conditions are identified and quantified. We define an "expected ecosystem performance" to represent the greenness response expected in a particular year given the climate of that year. We distinguish "performance anomalies" as cases where the ecosystem response is significantly different from the expected ecosystem performance. Maps of the performance anomalies (fig. 1) and trends in the anomalies give valuable information on the ecosystems for land managers and policy makers at a resolution of 1 km to 250 m.

Using proxies to explore ensemble uncertainty in climate impact studies: the example of air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaire, V. E. P.; Colette, A.; Menut, L.

2015-10-01

Because of its sensitivity to unfavorable weather patterns, air pollution is sensitive to climate change so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projection. However, the computing cost of such method requires optimizing ensemble exploration techniques. By using a training dataset of deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for 8 regions in Europe and developed simple statistical models that could be used to predict air pollutant concentrations. The evolution of the key climate variables driving either particulate or gaseous pollution allows concluding on the robustness of the climate impact on air quality. The climate benefit for PM2.5 was confirmed -0.96 (±0.18), -1.00 (±0.37), -1.16 ± (0.23) μg m-3, for resp. Eastern Europe, Mid Europe and Northern Italy and for the Eastern Europe, France, Iberian Peninsula, Mid Europe and Northern Italy regions a climate penalty on ozone was identified 10.11 (±3.22), 8.23 (±2.06), 9.23 (±1.13), 6.41 (±2.14), 7.43 (±2.02) μg m-3. This technique also allows selecting a subset of relevant regional climate model members that should be used in priority for future deterministic projections.

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

2017-09-01

Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

Seed bank and big sagebrush plant community composition in a range margin for big sagebrush

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martyn, Trace E.; Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Burke, Ingrid C.; Laurenroth, William K.

2016-01-01

The potential influence of seed bank composition on range shifts of species due to climate change is unclear. Seed banks can provide a means of both species persistence in an area and local range expansion in the case of increasing habitat suitability, as may occur under future climate change. However, a mismatch between the seed bank and the established plant community may represent an obstacle to persistence and expansion. In big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) plant communities in Montana, USA, we compared the seed bank to the established plant community. There was less than a 20% similarity in the relative abundance of species between the established plant community and the seed bank. This difference was primarily driven by an overrepresentation of native annual forbs and an underrepresentation of big sagebrush in the seed bank compared to the established plant community. Even though we expect an increase in habitat suitability for big sagebrush under future climate conditions at our sites, the current mismatch between the plant community and the seed bank could impede big sagebrush range expansion into increasingly suitable habitat in the future.

Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

2015-12-01

Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes; and the introduction of suitable agricultural crops that may be potentially adapted to a warmer climate in the expected steppe and forest-steppe.

Using an Integrated Approach to Supporting Climate Change Literacy for Pre-Service Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, H. R.; Mattox, S.; Llerandi-Román, P. A.; Dobson, C.

2014-12-01

Educating future Americans has long been a debate; with the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) now being adopted, climate literacy has become a more dominant discussion in both the classroom and in our society where climate education has often been non-existent or dismal at best. With these new education standards climate literacy is now fundamental to science education, this means understanding climate needs to begin with those headed into the classroom with these future Americans. These educators are expected to be skilled and confident in all subject areas, including science, where they might receive less training. To address this challenge, we have focused on an interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy, which is facilitated through cross-cutting concepts in both Earth and life sciences and parallels NGSS standards. We used the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication to gauge our student's strengths and weaknesses and compare them to the general public's understanding of climate change and complex Earth processes, such as beliefs about climate change, understanding the greenhouse effect, weather versus climate, climate change past and present, impacts and solutions. After a semester of this interdisciplinary course our students felt 95% confident that they are informed about global climate change as compared to 62% of Americans that were surveyed. Our students could define and describe greenhouse effect and 82% of them could classify greenhouse gases as compared to 66% and 45% of Americans respectively. While these non-science, education students were generally more knowledgeable about climate change, the areas where they did not significantly outperform the general public allowed us to refocus our course to aid them in understanding this complex issue where our hopes are that they will be prepared to teach science in their future classroom which will allow their students to be competitive in today's rapidly evolving global economy.

Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

2015-01-01

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

The Response of Environmental Capacity for Malaria Transmission in West Africa to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2011-12-01

The climate of West Africa is characterized by north-south gradients in temperature and rainfall. Environmental capacity for malaria transmission (e.g. as measured by vectorial capacity) is strongly tied to these two variables; temperature affects the development rate of the malaria parasite, as well as the lifespan of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease, and rainfall is tied to mosquito abundance, as the vector lays its eggs in rain-fed water pools. A change in climate is therefore expected to lead to changes in the distribution of malaria transmission. Current general circulation models agree that the temperature in West Africa is expected to increase by several degrees in the next century. However they predict a wide range of possible rainfall scenarios in the future, from intense drying to significant increases in rainfall (Christensen et al., 2007). The effects these changes will have on environmental capacity for malaria transmission depend on the magnitude and direction of the changes, and on current conditions. For example, malaria transmission will be more sensitive to positive changes in rainfall in dry areas where mosquito populations are currently limited by water availability than in relatively wet areas. Here, we analyze combinations of changes in rainfall and temperature within the ranges predicted by GCMs, and assess the impact these combinations will have on the environmental capacity for malaria transmission. In particular, we identify climate change scenarios that are likely to have the greatest impact on environmental capacity for malaria transmission, as well as geographic "hot spots" where the greatest changes are to be expected. Christensen, J. H., Busuioc, A., & et al. (2007). Regional climate projections. In S. Solomon (Ed.), Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

PubMed

Fortini, Lucas B; Vorsino, Adam E; Amidon, Fred A; Paxton, Eben H; Jacobi, James D

2015-01-01

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need 21st Century Conservation Options

PubMed Central

Fortini, Lucas B.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

2015-01-01

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations. PMID:26509270

Climate change adaptation via targeted ecosystem service provision: a sustainable land management strategy for the Segura catchment (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagaria, Cecilia; de Vente, Joris; Perez-Cutillas, Pedro

2014-05-01

Topical research investigating climate, land-use and management scenarios in the Segura catchment (SE Spain), depicts a landscape at high-risk of, quite literally, deserting agriculture. Land degradation in the semi-arid region of SE Spain is characterized by water shortage, high erosion rates and salinization, increasingly exacerbated by climatic changes, scarce vegetation cover and detrimental farming practices. Future climate scenarios predict increases in aridity, variability and intensity of rainfall events, leading to increasing pressure on scarce soil and water resources. This study conceptualized the impending crisis of agro-ecological systems of the Segura basin (18800 km2) as a crisis of ecosystem service deterioration. In light of existing land degradation drivers and future climate scenarios, the potential of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies was evaluated to target three priority ecosystem services (water provision, sediment retention and carbon sequestration) as a means to achieve climate change adaptation and mitigation. A preceding thorough process of stakeholder engagement (as part of the EU funded DESIRE project) indicated five SLM technologies for potential implementation, all with a focus upon reducing soil erosion, increasing soil water holding capacity and soil organic matter content. These technologies have been tested for over four years in local experimental field plots, and have provided results on the local effects upon individual environmental parameters. Despite the growing emphasis witnessed in literature upon the context-specificity which characterizes adaptation solutions, the frequent analysis at the field scale is limited in both scope and utility. There is a need to investigate the effects of adaptive SLM solutions at wider, regional scales. Thus, this study modeled the cumulative effect of each of the five selected SLM technologies with InVEST, a spatial analyst tool designed for ecosystem service quantification and valuation. Scenario impacts upon the three prioritized ecosystem services were evaluated under present and expected future climate conditions (IPCC A1B scenario storyline for 2050) using ensemble regional climate model predictions. Results are given for both the entire Segura catchment as well as for delineated sub-catchments. This study's value lies in providing relevant stakeholders with quantitative information upon which SLM strategies result in greatest ecosystem service provision and tradeoffs, and thus greatest resilience to expected climate change impacts. Furthermore, this research hopes to contribute towards the mainstreaming of the ecosystem services concept in land management policy and research, and thus to familiarize relevant stakeholders with the concept, facilitating scaling-up processes by communicating the necessity and a means to successfully achieve climate adaptation.

Prediction and Perception of Psychosocial Environment by Entering College Freshmen.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perl, Harold I.

Many adjustment problems may stem from the difference between initial expectations and later, experienced perceptions. To test this theory in relation to the social climate of university living units, and to assess initial perceptions and predictions of the future in relation to level of social exploration as a coping style, 92 entering freshmen…

Perceptions and Practices of Data Sharing in Engineering Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johri, Aditya; Yang, Seungwon; Vorvoreanu, Mihaela; Madhavan, Krishna

2016-01-01

As part of our NSF funded collaborative project on Data Sharing within Engineering Education Community, we conducted an empirical study to better understand the current climate of data sharing and participants' future expectations of the field. We present findings of this mixed method study and discuss implications. Overall, we found strong…

FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Covert, S. Alex; Estes, Nick J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Krueger, Damon; Wieferich, Daniel J.; Slattery, Michael T.; Lyons, John D.; McKenna, James E.; Infante, Dana M.; Bruce, Jennifer L.

2016-10-13

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km).Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4 of 5 cool-water species under present-day conditions will decline as much as 86 percent and as little as 33 percent, and habitats suitable for all 4 warm-water species will increase as much as 33 percent and as little as 7 percent. This report documents the approach and data used to predict and project fish species occurrence under present-day and future climate conditions for 13 lotic fish species in the United States Great Lakes Basin. A Web-based decision support mapping application termed “FishVis” was developed to provide a means to integrate, visualize, query, and download the results of these projected climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

PubMed

WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

2011-10-01

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

Tropical specialist vs. climate generalist: Diversification and demographic history of sister species of Carlia skinks from northwestern Australia.

PubMed

Afonso Silva, Ana C; Bragg, Jason G; Potter, Sally; Fernandes, Carlos; Coelho, Maria Manuela; Moritz, Craig

2017-08-01

Species endemic to the tropical regions are expected to be vulnerable to future climate change due in part to their relatively narrow climatic niches. In addition, these species are more likely to have responded strongly to past climatic change, and this can be explored through phylogeographic analyses. To test the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to climate change than climate generalists, we generated and analyse sequence data from mtDNA and ~2500 exons to compare scales of historical persistence and population fluctuation in two sister species of Australian rainbow skinks: the tropical specialist Carlia johnstonei and the climate generalist C. triacantha. We expect the tropical specialist species to have deeper and finer-scale phylogeographic structure and stronger demographic fluctuations relative to the closely related climate generalist species, which should have had more stable populations through periods of harsh climate in the late Quaternary. Within C. johnstonei, we find that some populations from the northern Kimberley islands are highly divergent from mainland populations. In C. triacantha, one major clade occurs across the deserts and into the mesic Top End, and another occurs primarily in the Kimberley with scattered records eastwards. Where their ranges overlap in the Kimberley, both mitochondrial DNA and nuclear DNA suggest stronger phylogeographic structure and range expansion within the tropical specialist, whereas the climate generalist has minimal structuring and no evidence of recent past range expansion. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to past climatic change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.

2018-02-01

Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

Technical Note: Linking climate change and downed woody debris decomposition across forests of the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, M. B.; Woodall, C. W.; D'Amato, A. W.; Fraver, S.; Bradford, J. B.

2014-06-01

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term forest carbon (C) storage is determined by the balance between C fixation into biomass through photosynthesis and C release via decomposition and combustion. Relative to C fixation in biomass, much less is known about C depletion through decomposition of woody debris, particularly under a changing climate. It is assumed that the increased temperatures and longer growing seasons associated with projected climate change will increase the decomposition rates (i.e., more rapid C cycling) of downed woody debris (DWD); however, the magnitude of this increase has not been previously addressed. Using DWD measurements collected from a national forest inventory of the eastern United States, we show that the residence time of DWD may decrease (i.e., more rapid decomposition) by as much as 13% over the next 200 years depending on various future climate change scenarios and forest types. Although existing dynamic global vegetation models account for the decomposition process, they typically do not include the effect of a changing climate on DWD decomposition rates. We expect that an increased understanding of decomposition rates, as presented in this current work, will be needed to adequately quantify the fate of woody detritus in future forests. Furthermore, we hope these results will lead to improved models that incorporate climate change scenarios for depicting future dead wood dynamics, in addition to a traditional emphasis on live tree demographics.

Climatic effects on ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltaos, S.; Prowse, T.; Bonsal, B.; Mackay, R.; Romolo, L.; Pietroniro, A.; Toth, B.

2006-12-01

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) in northern Alberta is one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas, home to large populations of waterfowl, muskrat, beaver, and free-ranging wood bison. In recent decades, a paucity of ice-jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the PAD region. Building on previous work that has identified the salient hydro-climatic factors, the frequency of ice-jam floods is considered under present (1961-1990) and future (2070-2099) climatic conditions. The latter are determined using temperature and precipitation output from the Canadian Climate Centre's second-generation Global Climate Model (CGCM2) for two different greenhouse-gas/sulphate emission scenarios. The analysis indicates that the ice season is likely to be reduced by 2-4 weeks, while future ice covers would be slightly thinner than they are at present. More importantly, a large part of the Peace River basin is expected to experience frequent and sustained mid-winter thaws, leading to significant melt and depleted snowpacks in the spring. Using an empirical relationship between ice-jam flood occurrence and size of the spring snowpack, a severe reduction in the frequency of ice-jam flooding is predicted under both future-climate scenarios that were considered. In turn, this trend is likely to accelerate the loss of aquatic habitat in the PAD region. Implications for potential mitigation and adaptation strategies are discussed. Copyright

Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.

PubMed

Peng, Shouzhang; Li, Zhi

2018-05-22

To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pliocene climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.

2010-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California's rainfall.

PubMed

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D; Chiang, John C H; Zimmerman, Susan

2017-12-05

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras.

PubMed

Eiserhardt, Wolf L; Borchsenius, Finn; Plum, Christoffer M; Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-03-01

When taxa go extinct, unique evolutionary history is lost. If extinction is selective, and the intrinsic vulnerabilities of taxa show phylogenetic signal, more evolutionary history may be lost than expected under random extinction. Under what conditions this occurs is insufficiently known. We show that late Cenozoic climate change induced phylogenetically selective regional extinction of northern temperate trees because of phylogenetic signal in cold tolerance, leading to significantly and substantially larger than random losses of phylogenetic diversity (PD). The surviving floras in regions that experienced stronger extinction are phylogenetically more clustered, indicating that non-random losses of PD are of increasing concern with increasing extinction severity. Using simulations, we show that a simple threshold model of survival given a physiological trait with phylogenetic signal reproduces our findings. Our results send a strong warning that we may expect future assemblages to be phylogenetically and possibly functionally depauperate if anthropogenic climate change affects taxa similarly. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The role of the Gulf Stream in European climate.

PubMed

Palter, Jaime B

2015-01-01

The Gulf Stream carries the warm, poleward return flow of the wind-driven North Atlantic subtropical gyre and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This northward flow drives a significant meridional heat transport. Various lines of evidence suggest that Gulf Stream heat transport profoundly influences the climate of the entire Northern Hemisphere and, thus, Europe's climate on timescales of decades and longer. The Gulf Stream's influence is mediated through feedback processes between the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere. This review synthesizes paleoclimate archives, model simulations, and the instrumental record, which collectively suggest that decadal and longer-scale variability of the Gulf Stream's heat transport manifests in changes in European temperature, precipitation, and storminess. Given that anthropogenic climate change is projected to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, associated changes in European climate are expected. However, large uncertainty in the magnitude of the anticipated weakening undermines the predictability of the future climate in Europe.

Developmental Climate: A Cross-level Analysis of Voluntary Turnover and Job Performance

PubMed Central

Spell, Hannah B.; Eby, Lillian T.; Vandenberg, Robert J.

2014-01-01

This research investigates the influence of shared perceptions of developmental climate on individual-level perceptions of organizational commitment, engagement, and perceived competence, and whether these attitudes mediate the relationship between developmental climate and both individual voluntary turnover and supervisor-rated job performance. Survey data were collected from 361 intact employee-supervisory mentoring dyads and matched with employee turnover data collected one year later to test the proposed framework using multilevel modeling techniques. As expected, shared perceptions of developmental climate were significantly and positively related to all three individual work attitudes. In addition, both organizational commitment and perceived competence were significant mediators of the positive relationship between shared perceptions of developmental climate and voluntary turnover, as well as shared perceptions of developmental climate and supervisor-rated job performance. By contrast, no significant mediating effects were found for engagement. Theoretical implications, limitations, and future research are discussed. PMID:24748681

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change

PubMed Central

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-01-01

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change. PMID:27621443

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change.

PubMed

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-09-27

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two methodologies are statistically compared and evaluated. The comparison between the historic event generated by the model and the observed event will give information on the realism of the model for this event. The comparison between the delta transformation method and the future simulation will provide information on how the dynamics would affect the precipitation field, as compared to the statistical method.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Ireland, Kathryn B; Hansen, Andrew J; Keane, Robert E; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L

2018-06-01

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, Kathryn B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Keane, Robert E.; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L.

2018-06-01

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Identifying outdoor thermal risk areas and evaluation of future thermal comfort concerning shading orientation in a traditional settlement.

PubMed

Huang, Kuo-Tsang; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas; Lin, Tzu-Ping

2018-06-01

The outdoor thermal environment is expected to be deteriorated under climate change. An approach of risk identification including assessment from aspects of thermal stress effect, people's exposure, and local's vulnerability were adopted to study a hot-and-humid traditional rural community located at Tainan, Taiwan. Layers of each aspect were either constructed by in-situ measurements or simulations. To evaluate the future thermal comfort changes by simulations, the prerequisite hourly climate data of three future time slices were produced. Prognostic simulation model, ENVI-met, in combination with diagnostic model, RayMan, were respectively used for identifying current spatial distribution of thermal stress and for assessing the future thermal comfort changes. High thermal risk area was identified by superimposing layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It revealed that because of the tourists' vulnerability to adapt local climate and the inflexibleness of choosing visiting time, it exhibited a high thermal stress at the Main Courtyard where its thermal comfort conditions will be deteriorated due to climate change. Furthermore, the thermal comfort conditions in various shading orientation were analyzed based on the changing climate in three future time slices, i.e. 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results show the area with shading in the East and West side is more comfort than in the North side. In hot season, shading in the West side contributes less PET increasing, especially in the afternoon period. The severest overheat problem (the physiological equivalent temperature, PET>40°C) at the Main Courtyard will increase from current 10% to 28% in 2071-2100 in terms of overheating occurrence frequency. The results of this study can be used as the guidelines for environment analysis before planning or redesign community. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

2017-04-01

The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

PubMed

Alvioli, Massimiliano; Melillo, Massimo; Guzzetti, Fausto; Rossi, Mauro; Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia

2018-07-15

The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Management Choices in an Uncertain Future: Navigating Snow, Precipitation, and Temperature Projections in the Pacific Northwest U.S. to Assess Water Management Alternatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, C.

2014-12-01

Climate and hydrology models are regularly applied to assess potential changes in water resources and to inform adaptation decisions. An increasingly common question is, "What if we are wrong?" While climate models show substantial agreement on metrics such as pressure, temperature, and wind, they are notoriously uncertain in projecting precipitation change. The response to that uncertainty varies depending on the water management context and the nature of the uncertainty. In the southwestern U.S., large storage reservoirs (relative to annual supply) and general expectations of decreasing precipitation have guided extensive discussion on water management towards uncertainties in annual-scale water balances, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. In contrast, smaller reservoirs and little expectation for change in annual precipitation have focused discussions of Pacific Northwest water management toward shifts in runoff seasonality. The relative certainty of temperature impacts on snowpacks compared to the substantial uncertainty in precipitation has yielded a consistent narrative on earlier snowmelt. This narrative has been reinforced by a perception of essentially the same behavior in the historical record. This perception has led to calls in the political arena for more reservoir storage to replace snowpack storage for water supplies. Recent findings on differences in trends in precipitation at high versus low elevations, however, has recalled the uncertainty in precipitation futures and generated questions about alternative water management strategies. An important question with respect to snowpacks is whether the precipitation changes matter in the context of such substantial projections for temperature change. Here we apply an empirical snowpack model to analyze spatial differences in the uncertainty of snowpack responses to temperature and precipitation forcing across the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis reveals a strong geographic gradient in uncertainty of snowpack response to future climate, from the coastal regions, where precipitation uncertainty is relatively inconsequential for snowpack changes, to interior mountains where minor uncertainties in precipitation are on par with expected changes relative to temperature.

Organizational Climate for Successful Aging.

PubMed

Zacher, Hannes; Yang, Jie

2016-01-01

Research on successful aging at work has neglected contextual resources such as organizational climate, which refers to employees' shared perceptions of their work environment. We introduce the construct of organizational climate for successful aging (OCSA) and examine it as a buffer of the negative relationship between employee age and focus on opportunities (i.e., beliefs about future goals and possibilities at work). Moreover, we expected that focus on opportunities, in turn, positively predicts job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and motivation to continue working after official retirement age. Data came from 649 employees working in 120 companies (M age = 44 years, SD = 13). We controlled for organizational tenure, psychological climate for successful aging (i.e., individuals' perceptions), and psychological and organizational age discrimination climate. Results of multilevel analyses supported our hypotheses. Overall, our findings suggest that OCSA is an important contextual resource for successful aging at work.

Organizational Climate for Successful Aging

PubMed Central

Zacher, Hannes; Yang, Jie

2016-01-01

Research on successful aging at work has neglected contextual resources such as organizational climate, which refers to employees’ shared perceptions of their work environment. We introduce the construct of organizational climate for successful aging (OCSA) and examine it as a buffer of the negative relationship between employee age and focus on opportunities (i.e., beliefs about future goals and possibilities at work). Moreover, we expected that focus on opportunities, in turn, positively predicts job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and motivation to continue working after official retirement age. Data came from 649 employees working in 120 companies (Mage = 44 years, SD = 13). We controlled for organizational tenure, psychological climate for successful aging (i.e., individuals’ perceptions), and psychological and organizational age discrimination climate. Results of multilevel analyses supported our hypotheses. Overall, our findings suggest that OCSA is an important contextual resource for successful aging at work. PMID:27458405

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

New insights for the hydrology of the Rhine based on the new generation climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Beersma, Jules; Buiteveld, Hendrik

2014-05-01

Decision makers base their choices of adaptation strategies on climate change projections and their associated hydrological consequences. New insights of climate change gained under the new generation of climate models belonging to the IPCC 5th assessment report may influence (the planning of) adaption measures and/or future expectations. In this study, hydrological impacts of climate change as projected under the new generation of climate models for the Rhine were assessed. Hereto we downscaled 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs), which were developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), using an advanced Delta Change Method for the Rhine basin. Changes in mean monthly, maximum and minimum flows at Lobith were derived with the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV of the Rhine. The projected changes were compared to changes that were previously obtained in the trans-boundary project Rheinblick using eight CMIP3 GCMs and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for emission scenario A1B. All eight selected CMIP3 models (scenario A1B) predicted for 2071-2100 a decrease in mean monthly flows between June and October. Similar decreases were found for some of the 31 CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. However, under each RCP, there were also models that projected an increase in mean flows between June and October and on average the decrease was smaller than for the eight CMIP3 models. For 2071-2100, also the mean annual minimum 7-days discharge decreased less in the CMIP5 model simulations than was projected in CMIP3. When assessing the response of mean monthly flows of the CMIP5 simulation with the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and HadGEM2-ES models with respect to initial conditions and RCPs, it was found that natural variability plays a dominant role in the near future (2021-2050), while changes in mean monthly flows are dominated by the radiative forcing in the far future (2071-2100). According to RCP 8.5 model simulations, the change in mean monthly flow from May to November may be half the change in mean monthly flow projected by RCP 4.5. From January to March, RCP 8.5 simulations projected higher changes in mean monthly flows than RCP 4.5 simulations. These new insights based on the CMIP5 simulations imply that for the Rhine, the mean and low flow extremes might not decrease as much in summer as was expected under CMIP3. Stresses on water availability during summer are therefore also less than expected from CMIP3.

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irby, Isaac D.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Da, Fei; Hinson, Kyle E.

2018-05-01

The Chesapeake Bay region is projected to experience changes in temperature, sea level, and precipitation as a result of climate change. This research uses an estuarine-watershed hydrodynamic-biogeochemical modeling system along with projected mid-21st-century changes in temperature, freshwater flow, and sea level rise to explore the impact climate change may have on future Chesapeake Bay dissolved-oxygen (DO) concentrations and the potential success of nutrient reductions in attaining mandated estuarine water quality improvements. Results indicate that warming bay waters will decrease oxygen solubility year-round, while also increasing oxygen utilization via respiration and remineralization, primarily impacting bottom oxygen in the spring. Rising sea level will increase estuarine circulation, reducing residence time in bottom waters and increasing stratification. As a result, oxygen concentrations in bottom waters are projected to increase, while oxygen concentrations at mid-depths (3 < DO < 5 mg L-1) will typically decrease. Changes in precipitation are projected to deliver higher winter and spring freshwater flow and nutrient loads, fueling increased primary production. Together, these multiple climate impacts will lower DO throughout the Chesapeake Bay and negatively impact progress towards meeting water quality standards associated with the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load. However, this research also shows that the potential impacts of climate change will be significantly smaller than improvements in DO expected in response to the required nutrient reductions, especially at the anoxic and hypoxic levels. Overall, increased temperature exhibits the strongest control on the change in future DO concentrations, primarily due to decreased solubility, while sea level rise is expected to exert a small positive impact and increased winter river flow is anticipated to exert a small negative impact.

Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

PubMed Central

Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; López-Romero, Jose María; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

2015-01-01

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (−14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector. PMID:26658608

Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

2014-12-01

Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

What Climate Information Do Water Managers Need to Make Robust, Long-Term Plans?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duran, R.; Lempert, R.; Groves, D.

2008-12-01

What climate information do water managers need to respond to threat of climate change? Southern California's Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) completed a long-range water resource management plan in 2005 that addressed expected economic and population growth in their service region, but did not consider the potential impacts of climate change. Using a robust decision making (RDM) approach for policy under deep uncertainty, we recently worked with IEUA to conduct a climate-change vulnerability and response options analysis of the agency's long-range plans. This analysis suggests that IEUA is vulnerable to future climate change, but can significantly reduce this vulnerability by increasing their near-term conservation programs and careful monitoring and updating to adjust their plan in the years ahead. In addition to helping IEUA, this analysis provides important guidance on the types of climate and other information that can be most useful for water managers as they attempt to take robust, near-term actions to increaase their resilience to climate change.

Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage

PubMed Central

Magrach, Ainhoa; Ghazoul, Jaboury

2015-01-01

Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes. PMID:26177201

The potential impact of global warming on the efficacy of field margins sown for the conservation of bumble-bees.

PubMed

Memmott, Jane; Carvell, Claire; Pywell, Richard F; Craze, Paul G

2010-07-12

Climate change is expected to drive species extinct by reducing their survival, reproduction and habitat. Less well appreciated is the possibility that climate change could cause extinction by changing the ecological interactions between species. If ecologists, land managers and policy makers are to manage farmland biodiversity sustainably under global climate change, they need to understand the ways in which species interact with each other as this will affect the way they respond to climate change. Here, we consider the ability of nectar flower mixtures used in field margins to provide sufficient forage for bumble-bees under future climate change. We simulated the effect of global warming on the network of plant-pollinator interactions in two types of field margin: a four-species pollen and nectar mix and a six-species wildflower mix. While periods without flowering resources and periods with no food were rare, curtailment of the field season was very common for the bumble-bees in both mixtures. The effect of this, however, could be ameliorated by adding extra species at the start and end of the flowering season. The plant species that could be used to future-proof margins against global warming are discussed.

Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.

PubMed

Ando, Amy W; Mallory, Mindy L

2012-04-24

Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit-cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change-induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area.

Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region

PubMed Central

Ando, Amy W.; Mallory, Mindy L.

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit–cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change–induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area. PMID:22451914

A broad assessment of factors determining Culicoides imicola abundance: modelling the present and forecasting its future in climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Acevedo, Pelayo; Ruiz-Fons, Francisco; Estrada, Rosa; Márquez, Ana Luz; Miranda, Miguel Angel; Gortázar, Christian; Lucientes, Javier

2010-12-06

Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011-2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses.

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States

PubMed Central

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981–2010) and future (2080–2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making. PMID:26238673

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.

PubMed

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-08-04

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

2006-01-01

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Shallow aquifer response to climate change scenarios in a small catchment in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone.

PubMed

Melo, Davi C D; Wendland, Edson

2017-05-01

Water availability restrictions are already a reality in several countries. This issue is likely to worsen due to climate change, predicted for the upcoming decades. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate change on groundwater system in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models (GCM) outputs were used as inputs to a water balance model, which produced recharge estimates for the groundwater model. Recharge was estimated across different land use types considering a control period from 2004 to 2014, and a future period from 2081 to 2099. Major changes in monthly rainfall means are expected to take place in dry seasons. Most of the analysed scenarios predict increase of more than 2 ºC in monthly mean temperatures. Comparing the control and future runs, our results showed a mean recharge change among scenarios that ranged from ~-80 to ~+60%, depending on the land use type. As a result of such decrease in recharge rates, the response given by the groundwater model indicates a lowering of the water table under most scenarios.

The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

DOE PAGES

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; ...

2016-11-16

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Liu, De L; O'Leary, Garry J; Asseng, Senthold; Macadam, Ian; Lines-Kelly, Rebecca; Yang, Xihua; Clark, Anthony; Crean, Jason; Sides, Timothy; Xing, Hongtao; Mi, Chunrong; Yu, Qiang

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041-2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO 2 emission scenario by 2081-2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Asymmetries in Climate Change Feedbacks: Why the Future may be Hotter Than you Think

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.; Harte, J.

2006-12-01

Feedbacks in the climate system are major sources of uncertainty, and climate predictions do not yet include one key set of feedbacks, namely biospheric greenhouse gas (GhG) feedbacks. Historical evidence shows that atmospheric GhG concentrations increase during periods of warming, implying a positive feedback to future climate change. We quantify this feedback for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) by combining the mathematics of feedback with both empirical ice-core information and general circulation model climate sensitivity. We find that a warming of 1.7-5.8°C predicted for the year 2100 is amplified to a warming commitment of 1.9-7.7°C, with the range deriving from different GCM simulations and paleo temperature records. Thus, anthropogenic emissions result in higher final GhG concentrations, and therefore more warming, than would be predicted in the absence of this feedback. Uncertainty in climate change predictions have been used as a rationale for inaction against the threat of global warming, based on a prevailing view that the uncertainties are symmetric, giving equal support to climate "optimists" (who think it will be a small problem) and "pessimists," (it will be a big problem). Our results show that even a symmetrical uncertainty in any component of feedback, whether positive or negative, produces an asymmetrical distribution of expected temperatures skewed towards higher temperature. For both reasons, the omission of key positive feedbacks and asymmetrical uncertainty from feedbacks, it is likely that the future will be hotter than we think, which implies more severe climate change impacts. Thus, these results suggest that a conservative policy approach would employ lower emission targets and tighter stabilization time horizons than would otherwise be required.

Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; Bader, Juergen; Bordoni, Simona; Codron, Francis; Dixon, Ross D.; Jonas, Jeffrey; Kang, Sarah M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.;

High resolution projections for the western Iberian coastal low level jet in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Semedo, Alvaro

2017-09-01

The Iberian coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is one of the less studied boundary layer wind jet features in the Eastern Boundary Currents Systems (EBCS). These regions are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems, where the atmosphere-land-ocean feedbacks, which include marine boundary layer clouds, coastal jets, upwelling and inland soil temperature and moisture, play an important role in defining the regional climate along the sub-tropical mid-latitude western coastal areas. Recently, the present climate western Iberian CLLJ properties were extensively described using a high resolution regional climate hindcast simulation. A summer maximum frequency of occurrence above 30 % was found, with mean maximum wind speeds around 15 ms-1, between 300 and 400 m heights (at the jet core). Since the 1990s the climate change impact on the EBCS is being studied, nevertheless some lack of consensus still persists regarding the evolution of upwelling and other components of the climate system in these areas. However, recently some authors have shown that changes are to be expected concerning the timing, intensity and spatial homogeneity of coastal upwelling, in response to future warming, especially at higher latitudes, namely in Iberia and Canaries. In this study, the first climate change assessment study regarding the Western Iberian CLLJ, using a high resolution (9 km) regional climate simulation, is presented. The properties of this CLLJ are studied and compared using two 30 years simulations: one historical simulation for the 1971-2000 period, and another simulation for future climate, in agreement with the RCP8.5 scenario, for the 2071-2100 period. Robust and consistent changes are found: (1) the hourly frequency of occurrence of the CLLJ is expected to increase in summer along the western Iberian coast, from mean maximum values of around 35 % to approximately 50 %; (2) the relative increase of the CLLJ frequency of occurrence is higher in the north off western Iberia; (3) the occurrence of the CLLJ covers larger areas both latitudinal and longitudinal; (4) the CLLJ season is lengthened extending to May and September; and, (5) there are shifts for higher occurrences of higher wind speeds and for the jet core to occur at higher heights.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future.

PubMed

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Cole, Julia E.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Pederson, Gregory T.; St. George, Scott; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Deser, Clara

2013-01-01

The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here we estimate power spectra and power laws (ß) from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). We test the significance of our estimates of spectral densities and ß against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (non-climate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly timescale. Although tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of ß calculated from long-moisture sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions), and other types of hydroclimate proxies, exceed null expectations. We therefore argue that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal to multidecadal timescales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.

Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate.

PubMed

Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter V; Cohen, Erika C; McNulty, Steven G; Aldridge, Heather D; Zhang, Yang

2016-04-21

The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr(-1) (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr(-1)). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua

2016-11-18

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua

2016-01-01

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states. PMID:27857204

Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results indicated that when the effect of extreme events was not considered, climate change had a low or no impact on crop yield distribution in 2020 and 2040. This resulted into an expected payout close to what observed in the present period. Conversely, the simulation of the effect of extreme events highly affected the PDFs by reducing the expected yield. This highlights that insured yield in future projections may be overestimated when not considering the impact of extremes, leading to distortions in the risk management of crop insurance companies. References Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2011) Climate ch'ange impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Clim Change 104:679-701 Sherrick BJ, Zanini FC, Schnitkey GD, Irwin SH (2004) Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86:406-419. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK. 160 pp

Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gremer, Jennifer; Bradford, John B.; Munson, Seth M.; Duniway, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20 to 56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40 to 60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Gremer, Jennifer R; Bradford, John B; Munson, Seth M; Duniway, Michael C

2015-11-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20-56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40-60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.

PubMed

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; O'Connor, Fiona M

2017-12-05

This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O 3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O 3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O 3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH 4 ) abundances lead to increases in background O 3 that offset the O 3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O 3 - termed the O 3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O 3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O 3 distribution, such as daily maximum O 3 . Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O 3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O 3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O 3 -related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM 2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O 3 -respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH 4 leads to global and European excess O 3 -respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O 3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.

Projection of Summer Climate on Tokyo Metropolitan Area using Pseudo Global Warming Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, S. A.; Kimura, F.; Kusaka, H.; Hara, M.

2010-12-01

Recent surface air temperature observations in most of urban areas show the remarkable increasing trend affected by the global warming and the heat island effects. There are many populous areas in Japan. In such areas, the effects of land-use change and urbanization on the local climate are not negligible (Fujibe, 2010). The heat stress for citizen there is concerned to swell moreover in the future. Therefore, spatially detailed climate projection is required for making adaptation and mitigation plans. This study focuses on the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) in summer and aims to estimate the local climate change over the TMA in 2070s using a regional climate model. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was used for downscaling. A single layer urban canopy model (Kusaka et al., 2001) is built into RAMS as a parameterization expressing the features of urban surface. We performed two experiments for estimating present and future climate. In the present climate simulation, the initial and boundary conditions for RAMS are provided from the JRA-25/JCDAS. On the other hand, the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method (Sato et al., 2007) is applied to estimate the future climate, instead of the conventional dynamical downscaling method. The PGW method is expected to reduce the model biases in the future projection estimated by Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). The boundary conditions used in the PGW method is given by the PGW data, which are obtained by adding the climate monthly difference between 1990s and 2070s estimated by AOGCMs to the 6-hourly reanalysis data. In addition, the uncertainty in the regional climate projection depending on the AOGCM projections is estimated from additional downscaling experiments using the different PGW data obtained from five AOGCMs. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. References: 1. Fujibe, F., Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.2142 (2010). 2. Kusaka, H., H. Kondo, Y. Kikegawa, and F. Kimura, Bound.-Layer Meteor., 101, 329-358 (2001). 3. Sato, T., F. Kimura, and A. Kitoh, J. Hydrology, 144-154 (2007).

Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity.

PubMed

Duveneck, Matthew J; Scheller, Robert M

2015-09-01

Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000-2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-as-usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-04-01

More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

Downstream Warming and Headwater Acidity May Diminish Coldwater Habitat in Southern Appalachian Mountain Streams

Treesearch

T. C. McDonnell; M. R. Sloat; T. J. Sullivan; C. A. Dolloff; P. F. Hessburg; N. A. Povak; W. A Jackson; C. Sams

2015-01-01

Stream-dwelling species in the U.S. southern Appalachian Mountains region are particularly vulnerable to climate change and acidification. The objectives of this study were to quantify the spatial extent of contemporary suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive aquatic species and to forecast future habitat loss resulting from expected temperature increases on...

Legacies in switchgrass resistance to and recovery from drought suggest that good years can sustain plants through bad years

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The warm-season perennial switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is a candidate bioenergy crop. To be successful, switchgrass production must be maintained on low-quality landscapes with minimal inputs while facing future climates that are expected to be more extreme and more variable. We propose that ant...

76 FR 59623 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition To List the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-27

... and organizations (Tremblay et al. 2005, pp. 481- 482), we expect that current and future urban... Tamaulipan agapema to live in an urban environment. Peigler and Kendall (1993, p. 4) noted that adults of..., (2) urban development, and (3) climate change. Agricultural Development The loss of Tamaulipan...

Earthshots: Satellite images of environmental change – Lake Powell, Utah and Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adamson, Thomas

2015-01-01

Droughts combined with a rising population means water sustainability will only become more of a challenge. In addition, hydropower capacity at Glen Canyon Dam could be reduced. Severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in this region; however, droughts are expected to become more severe in the future.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

2010-05-01

Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that is currently being implemented within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Modeling the Evolution of Riparian Woodlands Facing Climate Change in Three European Rivers with Contrasting Flow Regimes

PubMed Central

Rivaes, Rui P.; Rodríguez-González, Patricia M.; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Pinheiro, António N.; Politti, Emilio; Egger, Gregory; García-Arias, Alicia; Francés, Felix

2014-01-01

Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change. PMID:25330151

Living up to safety values in health care: the effect of leader behavioral integrity on occupational safety.

PubMed

Halbesleben, Jonathon R B; Leroy, Hannes; Dierynck, Bart; Simons, Tony; Savage, Grant T; McCaughey, Deirdre; Leon, Matthew R

2013-10-01

While previous research has identified that leaders' safety expectations and safety actions are important in fostering occupational safety, research has yet to demonstrate the importance of leader alignment between safety expectations and actions for improving occupational safety. We build on safety climate literature and theory on behavioral integrity to better understand the relationship between the leader's behavioral integrity regarding safety and work-related injuries. In a time-lagged study of 658 nurses, we find that behavioral integrity for high safety values is positively associated with greater reporting of fewer and less severe occupational injuries. The effects of behavioral integrity regarding safety can be better understood through the mediating mechanisms of safety compliance and psychological safety toward one's supervisor. We discuss the implications of our findings for future research on safety climate.

Climate Change and Waterborne Diarrhoea in Northern India: Impact and Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

2013-04-01

Although some studies showed the vulnerability of human health to climate change (e.g. 22.000 to 45.000 excess mortality cases during the heat waves in Europe, or the association of malaria outbreaks with El Niño) a clear quantification of the increased risks attributable to climate change is often lacking. Even more complicated are the assessments of the adaptation measures for this sector. Adaptation measures are in most cases very site specific. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of waterborne disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of Northern India. India is by far the leading country when it comes to child mortality under five years caused by diarrhoea and accounted for 386.600 deaths in 2007. Estimates on the increased risk of diarrhoea as a result of increased temperature in the 2030ies range between 8-11%. Uncertainties around these estimates mainly relate to the few studies that have characterized the exposure-response relationship and inter-model discrepancy of climate models. The influence of other climate parameters than temperature on diarrhoea in the future has not been assessed. As empirical studies and surveillance data for India are lacking we developed a conceptual framework for climate exposure-response relationships based on a literature review and applied it to future climate projections for the Ganges basin. Four climate variables are analysed: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. In an analysis of reports on diarrhoea outbreaks we show the spatial and temporal distribution over the subcontinent. Most cases of diarrhoea occur during the hot summer (23%) and the wet and humid monsoon (57%) months. These reports often suggest sewage and pipe leakage as the leading cause of the local outbreaks. We demonstrate the applicability of the conceptual framework for the two districts in West Bengal, North and South 24 Parganas. All climate factors correlated positively with diarrhoea incidences. However, for relative humidity a positive correlation was not in line with the framework. Combining the impact of all four parameters gives an indication of the overall impact of climate change on diarrhoea in northern India. For the projected changes between current and future (2040ies), the expected impact ranges from no change to an increase of 21% in incidences, with 12% increase on average for the whole of northern India. The mid and mid-eastern region are expected to experience a high increase in incidences above average, influenced by the combined impacts of higher temperatures and decreases in humidity and precipitation. Actions to improve the health situation are often driven by daily realities and pressures of the current development context. However, improvements which are robust on the long term should incorporate future projections of population, economic growth, physical urban expansion, health sector development? and climate change. This can pose a challenge at first, but can also generate new incentives and innovations to tackle pressing problems. We discuss three types of measures: reactive actions, preventive actions and policy options and make recommendations on their applicability.

Natural Hazards and the Normative Significance of Expectations in Protecting Alpine Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortner, Florian; Pölzler, Thomas; Meyer, Lukas H.; Sass, Oliver

2017-04-01

Protecting alpine communities from natural hazard events is costly. As climate change has led and will increasingly lead to a higher frequency and intensity of such events, at some point in the future states may consider planned relocations of some of these communities. In this study we investigate the theoretical option of relocations with regard to three alpine areas in Austria that have experienced natural hazard events in the past: the Sölk valleys, the Johnsbach valley, and the St. Lorenzen/Schwarzenbach valleys. More specifically, we focus on residents' expectations about being protected from such events: (1) What do these expectations look like? (2) Are these expectations relevant in determining whether and how the option of relocations ought to be implemented; and if yes, in which sense? First, we report approx. 300 questionnaire surveys and 17 qualitative interviews. These surveys and interviews suggest that residents of the Sölk valleys, the Johnsbach valley and the St. Lorenzen/Schwarzenbach valleys widely share the following expectation, henceforth referred to as "E": "In the foreseeable future the state of Austria will provide us with a level of protection from natural hazards that allows us to continue to live in these valleys". Second, we investigate E's normative significance, i.e., whether and if yes, in which sense it should count in making decisions about relocations. Based on Meyer and Sanklecha (2011, 2014) we propose several general conditions for the normative significance of expectations. Then we argue that E fulfills these conditions to a significant extent. E is highly epistemically legitimate because, among others, residents have so far received a high level of state protection from natural hazards, even in the face of increasing costs; had permission to build their houses in the areas in which they built them, and have not been properly informed about the state's possible inability to provide sufficient protection in the future. E is somewhat morally legitimate because, among others, it was mostly formed on the basis of impartial considerations, is mostly compatible with residents' views about distributive justice, and has to some extent been generated by the state. The findings that residents in the Sölk valleys, the Johnsbach valley, and the St. Lorenzen/Schwarzenbach valleys share E and that E is normatively significant mean that the option of relocation may be more difficult to justify than previously thought; and that if the implementation of this option frustrates residents' legitimate expectations, they should be owed more compensation. In addition, we draw lessons for potential planned relocations of other alpine communities and point to important legal and political implications. References: Meyer, Lukas; Sanklecha, Pranay (2011): Individual Expectations and Climate Change. Analyse & Kritik 32 (2): 449-471. Meyer, Lukas; Sanklecha, Pranay (2014): How Legitimate Expectations Matter in Climate Justice. Politics, Philosophy & Economics 13 (3): 369-393.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

2016-09-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Lake Energy Budget and Temperature Profiles Under Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofgren, B. M.; Xiao, C.

2017-12-01

Future climates under higher concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to feature higher air and water temperatures, and shifts in surface heat fluxes. We investigate in greater detail the evolution of this in terms of the annual cycle of lake temperature profiles, stratification, and ice formation. Other work has found that, although shallower water promotes more rapid changes in surface water temperature within a season, change in surface water temperature across decades is more prominent in locations with greater water depth. Our simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its lake module, WRF-Lake, show a trend toward longer periods of summer stratification, both through earlier onset in the spring and later decay of stratification in the fall. They also show a general increase in temperature throughout the water column, but most pronounced near the surface during the summer. Likewise, ice duration is much shorter and more restricted to shallow embayments. High latent and sensible heat flux during the fall and winter are less intense but longer lasting under the future scenario. Sources of uncertainty are cumulative—actual future greenhouse gas concentrations, global sensitivity of climate change, cloud feedbacks, the combined formulation of the regional climate model (WRF) and its global driving model, and more.

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the inner city and by 6°C during a period of hot days. The scenarios of future temperature are ongoing and will show how heat stress will change in Brisbane when both urban growth and climate change are considered.

Utilizing forest tree genetic diversity for an adaptation of forest to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schueler, Silvio; Lackner, Magdalena; Chakraborty, Debojyoti

2017-04-01

Since climate conditions are considered to be major determinants of tree species' distribution ranges and drivers of local adaptation, anthropogenic climate change (CC) is expected to modify the distribution of tree species, tree species diversity and the forest ecosystems connected to these species. The expected speed of environmental change is significantly larger than the natural migration and adaptation capacity of trees and makes spontaneous adjustment of forest ecosystems improbable. Planting alternative tree species and utilizing the tree species' intrinsic adaptive capacity are considered to be the most promising adaptation strategy. Each year about 900 million seedlings of the major tree species are being planted in Central Europe. At present, the utilization of forest reproductive material is mainly restricted to nationally defined ecoregions (seed/provenance zones), but when seedlings planted today become adult, they might be maladapted, as the climate conditions within ecoregions changed significantly. In the cooperation project SUSTREE, we develop transnational delineation models for forest seed transfer and genetic conservation based on species distribution models and available intra-specific climate-response function. These models are being connected to national registers of forest reproductive material in order support nursery and forest managers by selecting the appropriate seedling material for future plantations. In the long-term, European and national policies as well as regional recommendations for provenances use need to adapted to consider the challenges of climate change.

Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: Climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Hall, Courtney T.; Brumfield, Marisa D; Dugas, Jason; Jones, William R.

2017-01-01

Within the context of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the ecological implications of changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Along subtropical coasts, less frequent and warmer freeze events are expected to permit freeze-sensitive mangrove forests to expand poleward and displace freeze-tolerant salt marshes. Here, our aim was to better understand the drivers of poleward mangrove migration by quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in mangrove range expansion and contraction across land-ocean temperature gradients. Our work was conducted in a freeze-sensitive mangrove-marsh transition zone that spans a land-ocean temperature gradient in one of the world's most wetland-rich regions (Mississippi River Deltaic Plain; Louisiana, USA). We used historical air temperature data (1893-2014), alternative future climate scenarios, and coastal wetland coverage data (1978-2011) to investigate spatiotemporal fluctuations and climate-wetland linkages. Our analyses indicate that changes in mangrove coverage have been controlled primarily by extreme freeze events (i.e., air temperatures below a threshold zone of -6.3 to -7.6 °C). We expect that in the past 121 years, mangrove range expansion and contraction has occurred across land-ocean temperature gradients. Mangrove resistance, resilience, and dominance were all highest in areas closer to the ocean where temperature extremes were buffered by large expanses of water and saturated soil. Under climate change, these areas will likely serve as local hotspots for mangrove dispersal, growth, range expansion, and displacement of salt marsh. Collectively, our results show that the frequency and intensity of freeze events across land-ocean temperature gradients greatly influences spatiotemporal patterns of range expansion and contraction of freeze-sensitive mangroves. We expect that, along subtropical coasts, similar processes govern the distribution and abundance of other freeze-sensitive organisms. In broad terms, our findings can be used to better understand and anticipate the ecological effects of changing winter climate extremes, especially within the transition zone between tropical and temperate climates.

Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takakura, Jun'ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Honda, Yasushi; Masui, Toshihiko

2017-06-01

The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change mitigation targets.

Lessons Learned from Applications of a Climate Change Decision Tree toWater System Projects in Kenya and Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C.

2015-12-01

The Decision Tree Framework developed for the World Bank's Water Partnership Program provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process, the project planner is empowered to confidently communicate the method by which the vulnerabilities of the project have been assessed, and how the adjustments that were made (if any were necessary) improved the project's feasibility and profitability. The framework adopts a "bottom-up" approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understanding of a project's vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties (e.g., economic, environmental, demographic, political). It helps identify projects that perform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutions that are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected. Lessons learned through application of the Decision Tree to case studies in Kenya and Nepal will be presented, and aspects of the framework requiring further refinement will be described.

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

Future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments: the impact of dynamic glacier modelling and changing thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Van Loon, Anne; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc; Teuling, Ryan; Stahl, Kerstin

2017-04-01

In glacierized catchments, snowpack and glaciers function as an important storage of water and hydrographs of highly glacierized catchments in mid- and high latitudes thus show a clear seasonality with low flows in winter and high flows in summer. Due to the ongoing climate change we expect this type of storage capacity to decrease with resultant consequences for the discharge regime. In this study we focus on streamflow droughts, here defined as below average water availability specifically in the high flow season, and which methods are most suitable to characterize future streamflow droughts as regimes change. Two glacierized catchments, Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Wolverine (Alaska), are used as case study and streamflow droughts are compared between two periods, 1975-2004 and 2071-2100. Streamflow is simulated with the HBV light model, calibrated on observed discharge and seasonal glacier mass balances, for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). In studies on future streamflow drought often the same variable threshold of the past has been applied to the future, but in regions where a regime shift is expected this method gives severe "droughts" in the historic high-flow period. We applied the new alternative transient variable threshold, a threshold that adapts to the changing hydrological regime and is thus better able to cope with this issue, but has never been thoroughly tested in glacierized catchments. As the glacier area representation in the hydrological modelling can also influence the modelled discharge and the derived streamflow droughts, we evaluated in this study both the difference between the historical variable threshold (HVT) and transient variable threshold (TVT) and two different glacier area conceptualisations (constant area (C) and dynamical area (D)), resulting in four scenarios: HVT-C, HVT-D, TVT-C and TVT-D. Results show a drastic decrease in the number of droughts in the HVT-C scenario due to increased glacier melt. The deficit volume is expected to be up to almost eight times larger in the future compared to the historical period (Wolverine, +674%) in the HVT-D scenario, caused by the regime shift. Using the TVT the drought characteristics between the C and D scenarios and between future and historic droughts are more similar. However, when using the TVT, causing factors of future droughts, anomalies in temperature and/or precipitation, can be analysed. This study highlights the different conclusions that may be drawn on future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments depending on methodological choices. They could be used to answer different questions: the TVT for analysing drought processes in the future, the HVT to assess changes between historical and future periods, the constant area conceptualisation to analyse the effect of short term climate variability and the dynamical glacier area to model realistic future discharges in glacierized catchments.

Future Climate Change Impacts on Surface Hydrology over Texas River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

2014-12-01

Future freshwater availability is a pressing issue in Texas due to frequent drought events and fast population growth. Even though the science community has well investigated future temperature trends, it is still unclear whether precipitation will increase or decrease in this region. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding on how the changing climate will affect water resources across different spatial-temporal scales. This study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology at the basin scale under different future emission scenarios. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, forced by an ensemble of statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, is employed to predict the future hydrology. The VIC model parameters are adopted from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). The analysis is carried out in three steps. First, the observed streamflows are used to evaluate the performance of VIC simulations forced by CMIP5 models during historical period. Second, VIC outputs under multiple CMIP5 model scenarios from 1950 to 2099 are analyzed to identify how soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, and routed streamflows change in time and space. Third, the spatial patterns of seasonal temperature, seasonal precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)—over four 20-year periods (1980-1999, 2010-2029, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099)—are used to pinpoint the regions that will be most affected by climate change (among the 13 Texan river basins). Furthermore, the role of groundwater in meeting the increasing needs for water supply is discussed. The results are expected to contribute to various future water resources management decisions in Texas.

Clustering of Global Climate Models outputs as a tool for scenario-based risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R Pereira, V.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Avila, A. M. H. D.

2016-12-01

The choice of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) future projections outputs for the scenario based risk assessment studies is a challenge for the non-climate models scientists. This study presents a method to select a range of the GCMs scenarios for regional/continental agriculture studies. The technique proposed here is based on grouping the surface air temperature (tas) anomalies in a continental /regional scale - in Brazil-South America - projected by the AR5-CMIP5-GCMs. We run the k-means cluster algorithm and the silhouette method to identify the optimal number and to group the GCMs tas outputs under the rcp 8.5. We applied the delta method to calculate the near future climate change. This method is based on the difference between the future and the baseline in a 30 year running mean periods basis. The future considered here is the 2021-2050 [2030s] and the baseline is the period of 1976-2005 (1980s). As expected, all the models projections showed increases in tas in the near future, ranging from ≅ 3.6 to 0.2 oC. The k-means clustering clearly indicates 5 groups of GCMs tas deltas. The majority of GCMs indicated an intermediate future temperature changes. There is a group of 12 GCMs that is indicating an average change of ≅ 2 oC and another group of 16 indicating ≅ 1 oC. The other two groups with 3 GCMs each indicated a most extreme tas scenario - 0.2 and 3.6 oC respectively. The results were in agreement with previous studies with the AR4 GCMs in which the Miroc5 and HADGEM ES predecessors were classified in different groups of models. The results also allowed us to gradually access the optimist - pessimist groups of 34 GCMs that is a good reference to guide the public policy demands for agriculture under climate change conditions.

Future land-use change emissions: CO2, BVOC and wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneth, A.; Knorr, W.; Hantson, S.; Anthoni, P.; Szogs, S.

2015-12-01

Historical land-use (LUC) change is known to have been a large source of CO2 emissions, mostly from deforestation: the equivalent of around 1/3 of today's CO2 in the atmosphere arises from LUC. And LUC will continue into the future, although the expected area change, the type of LUC (deforestation vs. afforestation/reforestation) and regions where the LUC will take place will differ greatly, depending on the future scenario. But LUC is not only of importance for projecting emissions of CO2. It also affects greatly emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon, and from wildfires - all of which are important for the quantification of precursor substances relevant to air quality, and interactions with climate change. We show here that accounting for future socio-economic developments and LUC scenarios has the potential to override climate change and effects of CO2 fertilisation on fire and BVOC emission, regionally and in some cases also globally. Simulation experiments with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS will be performed, covering the 20th and 21st century, and assessing a rage of future population growth, LUC and climate change scenarios. For wildfire emissions, we find that burned area and emissions depend greatly on the type of population growth scenario, and on the distribution of urban vs rural population. BVOC emissions depend greatly on the amount and location of deforestation vs the region and magnitude of forest expansion in response to warming, such as through expansion of vegetation in the northern hemisphere, and via reforestation/afforestation. LUC so far has not been given sufficient attention for simulations of future air quality-climate interactions. In terms of terrestrial precursor emissions of atmospherically reactive substances our simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of including LUC in combination with vegetation that responds dynamically to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 levels.

Narratives of dynamic lands: science education, indigenous knowledge and possible futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGinty, Megan; Bang, Megan

2016-06-01

We aim to share some of our work currently focused on understanding and unearthing the multiplicities of ways the denial of culture in relation to science and knowledge construction is embedded in issues of climate change and climate change education. The issues become more troubling when we consider how effects of climate change are manifesting locally in ways that force shifts in Indigenous ways of living while simultaneously nation-states seem to think that continued or increased control of Indigenous practice is warranted. For us, taking the implications of such approaches seriously requires significant consideration of how climate education impacts Indigenous learners and whether learning western climate science is indeed part of making real change important. In our work we have focused on the ways in which settler-colonialism and the resultant racialized hierarchies permeate science education and contribute to an expectation of human entitlement to land and a notion of land permanence.

Western water and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2015-01-01

In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

2015-12-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving future management decisions and promoting sustainable practices at SRS.

Vulnerability-based evaluation of water supply design under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umit Taner, Mehmet; Ray, Patrick; Brown, Casey

2015-04-01

Long-lived water supply infrastructures are strategic investments in the developing world, serving the purpose of balancing water deficits compounded by both population growth and socio-economic development. Robust infrastructure design under climate change is compelling, and often addressed by focusing on the outcomes of climate model projections ('scenario-led' planning), or by identifying design options that are less vulnerable to a wide range of plausible futures ('vulnerability-based' planning). Decision-Scaling framework combines these two approaches by first applying a climate stress test on the system to explore vulnerabilities across many traces of the future, and then employing climate projections to inform the decision-making process. In this work, we develop decision scaling's nascent risk management concepts further, directing actions on vulnerabilities identified during the climate stress test. In the process, we present a new way to inform climate vulnerability space using climate projections, and demonstrate the use of multiple decision criteria to guide to a final design recommendation. The concepts are demonstrated for a water supply project in the Mombasa Province of Kenya, planned to provide domestic and irrigation supply. Six storage design capacities (from 40 to 140 million cubic meters) are explored through a stress test, under a large number climate traces representing both natural climate variability and plausible climate changes. Design outcomes are simulated over a 40-year planning period with a coupled hydrologic-water resources systems model and using standard reservoir operation rules. Resulting performance is expressed in terms of water supply reliability and economic efficiency. Ensemble climate projections are used for assigning conditional likelihoods to the climate traces using a statistical distance measure. The final design recommendations are presented and discussed for the decision criteria of expected regret, satisficing, and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).

Updated analysis of flatfish recruitment response to climate variability and ocean conditions in the Eastern Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilderbuer, Thomas; Stockhausen, William; Bond, Nicholas

2013-10-01

This study provides a retrospective analysis of the relationship between physical oceanography, biology and recruitment of three Eastern Bering Sea flatfish stocks: flathead sole (Hippoglossoides elassodon), northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra), and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) during the period 1978-2005. Stock assessment model estimates of recruitment and spawning stock size indicate that temporal patterns in productivity are consistent with decadal scale (or shorter) patterns in climate variability, which may influence marine survival during the early life history phases. Density-dependence (through spawning stock size) was statistically significant in a Ricker stock-recruit model of flatfish recruitment that included environmental terms. Wind-driven advection of northern rock sole and flathead sole larvae to favorable nursery grounds was found to coincide with years of above-average recruitment. Ocean forcing of Bristol Bay surface waters during springtime was mostly on-shelf (eastward) during the 1980s and again in the early 2000s, but was off-shelf (westerly) during the 1990s, corresponding with periods of good and poor recruitment, respectively. Finally, the Arctic Oscillation was found to be an important indicator of arrowtooth flounder productivity. Model results were applied to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future springtime wind scenarios to predict the future impact of climate on northern rock sole productivity and indicated that a moderate future increase in recruitment might be expected because the climate trends favor on-shelf transport but that density-dependence will dampen this effect such that northern rock sole abundance will not be substantially affected by climate change.

Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

PubMed

Martinez, Pablo Ariel; Andrade, Mayane Alves; Bidau, Claudio Juan

2018-06-01

The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil erosion predictions from a landscape evolution model - An assessment of a post-mining landform using spatial climate change analogues.

PubMed

Hancock, G R; Verdon-Kidd, D; Lowry, J B C

2017-12-01

Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Causes of Mid-Holocene Drought in the Rocky Mountains Using Hydrologic Forward Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meador, E.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

We present a quantitative model-data comparison for mid-Holocene (6 ka) lake levels in the Rocky Mountains, with the goals of assessing the skill coupled climate models and hydrologic forward models in simulating climate change and improving our understanding of the factors causing past changes in water resources. The mid-Holocene climate in this area may in some ways be similar to expected future climate, thus improved understanding of the factors causing past changes in water resources have the potential to aid in the process of water allocation for large areas that share a relatively small water source. This project focuses on Little Windy Hill Pond in the Medicine Bow Forest in the Rocky Mountains in southern Wyoming. We first calibrated the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) catchment hydrologic model and the one-dimensional Hostetler Bartlein lake energy-balance model to modern observations, using U.S. Geological Survey stream discharge data and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) data to ensure appropriate selection of model parameters. Once the models were calibrated to modern conditions, we forced them with output from eight mid-Holocene coupled climate model simulations completed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5. Forcing from nearly all of the CMIP5 models generates intense, short-lived droughts for the mid-Holocene that are more severe than any we modeled for the past six decades. The severity of the mid-Holocene droughts could be sufficient, depending on sediment processes in the lake, to account for low lake levels recorded by loss-on-ignition in sediment cores. Our preliminary analysis of model output indicates that the combined effects of decreased snowmelt runoff and increased summer lake evaporation cause low mid-Holocene lake levels. These factors are also expected to be important in the future under anthropogenic climate change.

Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air Quality at 2030 Simulated Using RCP 6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors, and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next few decades. To ensure that planned air quality regulations are robust under a range of possible future climates and to consider possible policy actions to mitigate climate change, it is important to characterize and understand the effects of climate change on air quality. Recent work by several research groups using global and regional models has demonstrated that there is a "climate penalty," in which climate change leads to increases in surface ozone levels in polluted continental regions. One approach to simulating future air quality at the regional scale is via dynamical downscaling, in which fields from a global climate model are used as input for a regional climate model, and these regional climate data are subsequently used for chemical transport modeling. However, recent studies using this approach have encountered problems with the downscaled regional climate fields, including unrealistic surface temperatures and misrepresentation of synoptic pressure patterns such as the Bermuda High. We developed a downscaling methodology and showed that it now reasonably simulates regional climate by evaluating it against historical data. In this work, regional climate simulations created by downscaling the NASA/GISS Model E2 global climate model are used as input for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ simulations over the continental United States are conducted for two 11-year time slices, one representing current climate (1995-2005) and one following Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from 2025-2035. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone and PM precursors are held constant at year 2006 levels for both the current and future periods. In our presentation, we will examine the changes in ozone and PM concentrations, with particular focus on exceedances of the current U.S. air quality standards, and attempt to relate the changes in air quality to the projected changes in regional climate.

Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Teh, Lydia C. L.; Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal; Khalfallah, Myriam; Pauly, Daniel; Palomares, Maria L. Deng; Zeller, Dirk; Cheung, William W. L.

2018-01-01

Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region. PMID:29718919

A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

2009-04-01

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf.

PubMed

Wabnitz, Colette C C; Lam, Vicky W Y; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Teh, Lydia C L; Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal; Khalfallah, Myriam; Pauly, Daniel; Palomares, Maria L Deng; Zeller, Dirk; Cheung, William W L

2018-01-01

Climate change-reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions-is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, F.

2015-12-01

The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management in the basin. The various water users; agriculture, household, industries will be able to prepare adequately and adapt to changes when they have information of the trends of extreme events well ahead of time.

Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Massey, Neil; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Droughts and related water scarcity can have large impacts on societies and consist of interactions between a number of natural and human factors. Meteorological conditions are usually the first natural trigger of droughts, and climate change is expected to impact these and thereby the frequency and intensity of the events. However, extreme events such as droughts are, by definition, rare, and accurately quantifying the risk related to such events is therefore difficult. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying the risks associated with droughts in the UK under present and future conditions. To do so, a large number of drought events, from climate model simulations downscaled at 25km over Europe, are being fed into hydrological models of various complexity and used for the estimation of drought risk associated with human and natural systems, including impacts on the economy, industry, agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and socio-cultural aspects. Here, we present the hydro-meteorological drought event set that has been produced by weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model (RCM). Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future horizons (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally consistent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. The drought event set for use in impact studies is constructed by extracting sequences of dry conditions from these model runs, leading to several thousand drought events. In addition to describing methodological and validation aspects of the synthetic drought event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK, its meteorological drivers, and how it can be expected to change in the future. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Statistical modeling of daily and subdaily stream temperatures: Application to the Methow River Basin, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Bountry, J.; Lai, Y.; Elsner, M. M.

2013-07-01

Management of water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin (Washington) is critical because water projects have substantially altered the habitat of Endangered Species Act listed species, such as salmon, throughout the basin. This is most important in tributaries to the Columbia, such as the Methow River, where the spawning and rearing life stages of these cold water fishes occurs. Climate change projections generally predict increasing air temperatures across the western United States, with less confidence regarding shifts in precipitation. As air temperatures rise, we anticipate a corresponding increase in water temperatures, which may alter the timing and availability of habitat for fish reproduction and growth. To assess the impact of future climate change in the Methow River, we couple historical climate and future climate projections with a statistical modeling framework to predict daily mean stream temperatures. A K-nearest neighbor algorithm is also employed to: (i) adjust the climate projections for biases compared to the observed record and (ii) provide a reference for performing spatiotemporal disaggregation in future hydraulic modeling of stream habitat. The statistical models indicate the primary drivers of stream temperature are maximum and minimum air temperature and stream flow and show reasonable skill in predictability. When compared to the historical reference time period of 1916-2006, we conclude that increases in stream temperature are expected to occur at each subsequent time horizon representative of the year 2020, 2040, and 2080, with an increase of 0.8 ± 1.9°C by the year 2080.

Potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yield variability under a changing climate in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

2017-12-01

Texas has the largest farm area in the U.S, and its revenue from crop production ranks third overall. With the changing climate, hydrological extremes such as droughts are becoming more frequent and intensified, causing significant yield reduction in rainfed agricultural systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yields (corn, sorghum, and wheat) under a changing climate in Texas. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over 10 major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed in this study.The model is forced by a set of statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that represent different greenhouse gas concentration (4.5 and 8.5 w/m2 are selected in this study). To carry out the analysis, VIC simulations from 1950 to 2099 are first analyzed to investigate how the frequency and severity of agricultural droughts will be altered in Texas (under a changing climate). Second, future crop yields are projected using a statistical crop model. Third, the effects of agricultural drought on crop yields are quantitatively analyzed. The results are expected to contribute to future water resources planning, with a goal of mitigating the negative impacts of future droughts on agricultural production in Texas.

A comparison of methods to estimate future sub-daily design rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J.; Sharma, A.

2017-12-01

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase extreme short-duration rainfall due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere. While attention has been paid to the impacts of climate change on future design rainfalls at daily or longer time scales, the potential changes in short duration design rainfalls have been often overlooked due to the limited availability of sub-daily projections and observations. This study uses a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) to predict the changes in sub-daily design rainfalls for the Greater Sydney region in Australia. Sixteen methods for predicting changes to sub-daily future extremes are assessed based on different options for bias correction, disaggregation and frequency analysis. A Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure is employed to evaluate the skill of each method in estimating the design rainfall for the current climate. It is found that bias correction significantly improves the accuracy of the design rainfall estimated for the current climate. For 1 h events, bias correcting the hourly annual maximum rainfall simulated by the RCM produces design rainfall closest to observations, whereas for multi-hour events, disaggregating the daily rainfall total is recommended. This suggests that the RCM fails to simulate the observed multi-duration rainfall persistence, which is a common issue for most climate models. Despite the significant differences in the estimated design rainfalls between different methods, all methods lead to an increase in design rainfalls across the majority of the study region.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): A European Answer to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thepaut, Jean-Noel

2016-04-01

Copernicus is the European Commission's flagship Earth observation programme that delivers freely accessible operational data and information services. ECMWF has been entrusted to operate two key parts of the Copernicus programme, which will bring a consistent standard to the measurement, forecasting and prediction of atmospheric conditions and climate change: • The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, CAMS, provides daily forecasts detailing the makeup composition of the atmosphere from the ground up to the stratosphere. • The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (in development) will routinely monitor and analyse more than 20 essential climate variables to build a global picture of our climate, from the past to the future, as well as developing customisable climate indicators for relevant economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health…. C3S has now taken off and a number of proof-of-concept sectoral climate services have been initiated. This paper will focus on the description and expected outcome of these proof-of-concept activities as well as the definition of a roadmap towards a fully operational European Climate Change Service.

Sustainability of irrigated crops under future climate: the interplay of irrigation strategies and cultivar responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, F.; Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, S.; Patanè, C.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Monaco, E.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

Climate evolution will cause significant changes in the quality and availability of water resources, affecting many sectors including food production, where available water resources for irrigation play a crucial role. Strategies focused on managing and conserving water are one way to deal with the impact; moreover concurring adaptation measurements will be needed to cope with the foreseen decline of water resource. This work deals with i) the impacts of climate change on water requirements of an horticultural crop, determined in an irrigated district in Southern Italy, ii) the possible irrigation scheduling options and their sustainability in the future, iii) the adaptation measurements that can be undertaken to protect production, relying on intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops. Two climate scenarios were considered: present climate (1961-90) and future climate (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data set consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and rainfall on a grid with spatial resolution of 35 km. The analysis of climate scenarios showed that significant increases in summer maximum daily temperature could be expected in 2021-2050 period. Soil water regime was determined by means of a mechanistic model (SWAP) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Twenty? soil units were identified in the district (in Sele Plain, Campania Region) and simulations were performed accounting for hydro-pedological properties of different soil units. Parameters of a generic tomato crop, in a rotation typical of the area, were used in simulations. Soil water balance was simulated in the present and future climate, both with optimal water availability and under constrains that irrigation schemes will pose. Indicators of soil water availability were calculated, in terms of soil water or evapotranspiration deficit. For several tomato cultivars, quantitative yield response functions to water availability were determined through the re-analysis of experimental data, derived from scientific literature. Variety-specific threshold values of yield reduction in dependence of soil water and evapotranspiration deficit were determined. The spatial pattern of soil water availability indicators was calculated., for present and future climate scenarios and for different irrigation scheduling options. Cultivars' threshold values were matched with indicators' values in all soil units. The future adaptability of the crop in the area is thus evaluated, and adaptation options that exploit the intra-specific biodiversity of the crop are indicated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, tomato, deficit irrigation, biodiversity

Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

PubMed

Lagerholm, Vendela K; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Vaniscotte, Amélie; Potapova, Olga R; Tomek, Teresa; Bochenski, Zbigniew M; Shepherd, Paul; Barton, Nick; Van Dyck, Marie-Claire; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, Jacob; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Dalén, Love; Stewart, John R

2017-04-01

Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Coupled Economic and Physical Model of Coastal Adaptation and Abandonment: Are human occupied coastlines a bubble waiting to burst?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D.; Keeler, A.

2011-12-01

Policy discussions of adaptation by coastal residents to increasing rates of sea level rise and changing frequency of damaging storms have focused on community land use planning processes. This view neglects the role that market dynamics and climate change expectations play in the way coastal communities choose among risk mitigation options and manage land use decisions in an environment of escalating risks. We use a model coupling physical coastal processes with an agent-based model of behavior in real estate and mitigation markets to examine the interplay of climate-driven coastal hazards, collective mitigation decisions, and individual beliefs. The physical component model simulates barrier island processes that respond to both storms and slow scale dynamics associated with sea level rise. The economic component model is an agent-based model of economic behavior where agents are rational economic actors working off different assessments of future climate-driven events. Agents differentially update their beliefs based on a) how much emphasis they give to observed coastal changes and b) how much weight they give to scientific predictions. In essence, agents differ along a spectrum of how much they believe that the past is the best guide to the future and how quickly they react to new information. We use the coupled model to explore three questions of interest to coastal policy. First, how do the interplay of costal processes, beliefs, and mitigation choices affect the level and stability of real estate prices? Second, how does this interplay affect the incentives for community investments in shoreline protection? Third, how do expectations and reactions to observed events, as well as mitigation investments, affect the built environment in circumstances when climate risks reach very high levels? This last question relates to a key aspect of climate change adaptation on the coast - when does mitigation give way to abandonment as an optimal adaptation strategy? Results suggest that subjective expectations about climate risk and about the effectiveness of mitigation in high-risk environments are critical in determining when the market starts to reflect the possibility that property might no longer be inhabitable. Results will be presented that contrast the dynamics of abandonment over a range of sea level rise and storminess scenarios.

Projected changes of the southwest Australian wave climate under two atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hemer, Mark A.

2017-09-01

Incident wave energy flux is responsible for sediment transport and coastal erosion in wave-dominated regions such as the southwestern Australian (SWA) coastal zone. To evaluate future wave climates under increased greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, past studies have forced global wave simulations with wind data sourced from global climate model (GCM) simulations. However, due to the generally coarse spatial resolution of global climate and wave simulations, the effects of changing offshore wave conditions and sea level rise on the nearshore wave climate are still relatively unknown. To address this gap of knowledge, we investigated the projected SWA offshore, shelf, and nearshore wave climate under two potential future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This was achieved by downscaling an ensemble of global wave simulations, forced with winds from GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), into two regional domains, using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The wave climate is modeled for a historical 20-year time slice (1986-2005) and a projected future 20-year time-slice (2081-2100) for both scenarios. Furthermore, we compare these scenarios to the effects of considering sea-level rise (SLR) alone (stationary wave climate), and to the effects of combined SLR and projected wind-wave change. Results indicated that the SWA shelf and nearshore wave climate is more sensitive to changes in offshore mean wave direction than offshore wave heights. Nearshore, wave energy flux was projected to increase by ∼10% in exposed areas and decrease by ∼10% in sheltered areas under both climate scenarios due to a change in wave directions, compared to an overall increase of 2-4% in offshore wave heights. With SLR, the annual mean wave energy flux was projected to increase by up to 20% in shallow water (< 30 m) as a result of decreased wave dissipation. In winter months, the longshore wave energy flux, which is responsible for littoral drift, is expected to increase by up to 39% (62%) under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration pathway with SLR. The study highlights the importance of using high-resolution wave simulations to evaluate future regional wave climates, since the coastal wave climate is more responsive to changes in wave direction and sea level than offshore wave heights.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in the Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M. B.; Zhang, F.; Franklin, M.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2008-12-01

The impact of climate change on energy demand and use is a significant issue for developing future GHG emission scenarios and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. A number of studies have evaluated the increase in GHG emissions as a result of changes in energy production from fossil fuels, but the consequences of climate change on energy consumption have not been the focus of many studies. Here we focus on the impacts of climate change on energy use at a regional scale using the Midwestern USA as a test. The paper presents results of analyzing energy use in response to ambient temperature changes in a 17-year period from 1989 to 2006 and projection of energy use under future climate scenarios (2010-2061). This study consisted of a two-step procedure. In the first step, sensitivity of historic energy demand, specifically electricity and natural gas in residential and commercial sectors (42% of end-use energy), with respect to many climatic and non-climatic variables was examined. State-specific regression models were developed to quantify the relationship between energy use and climatic variables using degree days. We found that model parameters and base temperatures for estimating heating and cooling days varied by state and energy sector, mainly depending on climate conditions, infrastructure, economic factors, and seasonal change in energy use. In the second step, we applied these models to predict future energy demand using output data generated by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) for the SRES A1B scenario used in the IPCC AR-4. The annual demands of electricity and natural gas were predicted for each state from 2010 to 2061. The model results indicate that the average annual electricity demand will increase 3%-5% for the southern states and 1%-3% for the northern states in the region by 2061 and that the demand for natural gas is expected to be reduced in all states. A seasonal analysis of energy distribution in response to climate variables identifies a significant peak in demand in July-August (11%-16% in southern states and 6%-10% in the northern states). These findings suggest that the energy sector is vulnerable to climate change even in the northern Midwest region of the US. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a state-level assessment can help to better identify adaptation strategies for future regional energy sector changes.

Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Vu, Phuong Nam; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

2016-03-01

In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Bridging the Gap Between End User Needs and Science Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A.; Austin, E. K.

2012-12-01

Successful adaptation outcomes depend on decision making based on the best available climate science information. However, a fundamental barrier exists, namely the 'gap' between information that climate science can currently provide and the information that is practically useful for end users and decision makers. This study identifies the major contributing factors to the 'gap' from an Australian perspective and provides recommendations as to ways in which the 'gap' may be narrowed. This was achieved via a literature review, online survey (targeted to providers of climate information and end users of that information), workshop (where both climate scientists and end users came together to discuss key issues) and focus group. The study confirmed that uncertainty in climate science is a key barrier to adaptation. The issue of uncertainty was found to be multi-faceted, with issues identified in terms of communication of uncertainty, misunderstanding of uncertainty and the lack of tools/methods to deal with uncertainty. There were also key differences in terms of expectations for the future - most end users were of the belief that uncertainty associated with future climate projections would reduce within the next five to 10 years, however producers of climate science information were well aware that this would most likely not be the case. This is a concerning finding as end users may delay taking action on adaptation and risk planning until the uncertainties are reduced - a situation which may never eventuate or may occur after the optimal time for action. Improved communication and packaging of climate information was another key theme that was highlighted in this study. Importantly, it was made clear that improved communication is not just about more glossy brochures and presentations by climate scientists, rather there is a role for a program or group to fill this role (coined a 'knowledge broker' during the workshop and focus group). The role of the 'knowledge broker' would be to package, translate (both from end user to scientist and scientist to end user) and transform climate information. Importantly communication of uncertainty needs to be improved so that end users are aware of all the caveats and what can realistically be expected from climate science now and in the near future. Overall this study confirmed that there is indeed a 'gap' between end user's needs and science capability, particularly with respect to uncertainty, communication and packaging of climate information. This 'gap' has been a barrier to successful climate change adaptation in the past. While it is unrealistic to think we could ever close the 'gap' completely, based on the recommendations provided in this paper, it may be possible to bridge the 'gap' (or at least improve people's awareness of the 'gap'). Furthermore, the insights gained and recommendations provided from this study, while based on an Australian context, are likely to be applicable to many other regions of the world, grappling with similar issues.

Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

2016-12-01

It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) project following the Paris Agreement, 2015, to aim to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

Testing for synchrony in recruitment among four Lake Michigan fish species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, David B.; Höök, Tomas O.; Troy, Cary D.; Liu, Wentao; Madenjian, Charles P.; Adams, Jean V.

2017-01-01

In the Great Lakes region, multiple fish species display intra-specific spatial synchrony in 28 recruitment success, with inter-annual climate variation hypothesized as the most likely driver. 29 In Lake Michigan, we evaluated whether climatic or other physical variables could also induce 30 spatial synchrony across multiple species, including bloater (Coregonus hoyi), rainbow smelt 31 (Osmerus mordax), yellow perch (Perca flavescens), and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). The 32 residuals from stock-recruitment relationships revealed yellow perch recruitment to be correlated 33 with recruitment of both rainbow smelt (r = 0.37) and alewife (r = 0.36). Across all four species, 34 higher than expected recruitment occurred in 5 years between 1978 and 1987 and then switched 35 to lower than expected recruitment in 5 years between 1996 and 2004. Generalized additive 36 models revealed warmer spring and summer water temperatures and lower wind speeds 37 corresponded to higher than expected recruitment for the nearshore-spawning species, and 38 overall variance explained ranged from 14% (yellow perch) to 61% (alewife). For all species 39 but rainbow smelt, higher recruitment also occurred in extremely high or low years of the North 40 Atlantic Oscillation index. Future development of indices that describe the physical Great Lakes 41 environment could improve understanding of how climate can synchronize fish populations 42 within and across species.

Modelling Climate Change Impacts on the Seasonality of Water Resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia

PubMed Central

Giang, Pham Quy; Sakata, Masahiro; Vinh, Tran Quoc

2014-01-01

The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4°C in the 2090s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ±25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season. PMID:25243206

Projection of invertebrate populations in the headwater streams of a temperate catchment under a changing climate.

PubMed

Nukazawa, Kei; Arai, Ryosuke; Kazama, So; Takemon, Yasuhiro

2018-06-14

Climate change places considerable stress on riverine ecosystems by altering flow regimes and increasing water temperature. This study evaluated how water temperature increases under climate change scenarios will affect stream invertebrates in pristine headwater streams. The studied headwater-stream sites were distributed within a temperate catchment of Japan and had similar hydraulic-geographical conditions, but were subject to varying temperature conditions due to altitudinal differences (100 to 850 m). We adopted eight general circulation models (GCMs) to project air temperature under conservative (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.5), and extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5) during the near (2031-2050) and far (2081-2100) future. Using the water temperature of headwater streams computed by a distributed hydrological-thermal model as a predictor variable, we projected the population density of stream invertebrates in the future scenarios based on generalized linear models. The mean decrease in the temporally averaged population density of Plecoptera was 61.3% among the GCMs, even under RCP2.6 in the near future, whereas density deteriorated even further (90.7%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. Trichoptera density was also projected to greatly deteriorate under RCP8.5 in the far future. We defined taxa that exhibited temperature-sensitive declines under climate change as cold stenotherms and found that most Plecoptera taxa were cold stenotherms in comparison to other orders. Specifically, the taxonomic families that only distribute in Palearctic realm (e.g., Megarcys ochracea and Scopura longa) were selectively assigned, suggesting that Plecoptera family with its restricted distribution in the Palearctic might be a sensitive indicator of climate change. Plecoptera and Trichoptera populations in the headwaters are expected/anticipated to decrease over the considerable geographical range of the catchment, even under the RCP2.6 in the near future. Given headwater invertebrates play important roles in streams, such as contributing to watershed productivity, our results provide useful information for managing streams at the catchment-level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding the drivers of the future water gap in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Immerzeel, W. W.; Wijngaard, R. R.; Biemans, H.; Lutz, A. F.

2017-12-01

The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river systems provide water resources for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors sustaining the lives of about 700 million people. The region is globally a hotspot for climate change as the headwaters of these rivers are fed by melt water from snow and glaciers, both strongly influenced by temperature change. In addition, the hydrology in the region is determined by the monsoon and its future dynamics as a results of climate change remains very uncertain. Simultaneously, the population is projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, which in combination with strong economic developments, will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. In this study we attempt to quantify the future water gap in the IGB and attribute this water gap to climate change and socio-economic growth. For the upstream mountainous parts of the basins we use the SPHY model, which is calibrated based on historical streamflow and glacier mass balance data and forced by the latest CMIP5 future climate model data for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Output of this model feeds into the downstream LPJmL model, which allows assessment of downstream climate change impacts and projected changes in water demand as a result of socio-economic developments. The LPJmL model is run for different combinations of RCPs and Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show that for the IGB as a whole climate change will increase water availability in the coming decades, due to an overall, albeit uncertain, increase in monsoon precipitation in combination with a sustained melt water supply from the upstream parts of the basins. However, irrespective of the SSP and RCP, the water demand as a result of socio-economic growth is expected to increase extremely fast in the near future and this is likely to be the main adaptation challenge for the IGB as far as water shortages are concerned. Our results also show that regional and temporal variation in the water gap is large and that basin specific adaptation measures are required that take into account both socio-economic developments as well as climate change.

Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2016-12-01

There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation to specific regional or hemispheric outcomes that inform terrestrial water and energy (wind as well as hydropower) futures. The focus will be on how one can frame the mathematical problem of robustly estimating relevant conditional distributions and their uncertainty, to inform risk management applications in these sectors.

Linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feher, Laura C.; Osland, Michael J.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Grace, James B.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Stagg, Camille L.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Krauss, Ken W.; Gabler, Christopher A.; Day, Richard H.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Climate greatly influences the structure and functioning of tidal saline wetland ecosystems. However, there is a need to better quantify the effects of climatic drivers on ecosystem properties, particularly near climate-sensitive ecological transition zones. Here, we used climate- and literature-derived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands to test hypotheses regarding the influence of climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and precipitation regimes) on the following six ecosystem properties: canopy height, biomass, productivity, decomposition, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation. Our analyses quantify and elucidate linear and nonlinear effects of climatic drivers. We quantified positive linear relationships between temperature and above-ground productivity and strong positive nonlinear (sigmoidal) relationships between (1) temperature and above-ground biomass and canopy height and (2) precipitation and canopy height. Near temperature-controlled mangrove range limits, small changes in temperature are expected to trigger comparatively large changes in biomass and canopy height, as mangrove forests grow, expand, and, in some cases, replace salt marshes. However, within these same transition zones, temperature-induced changes in productivity are expected to be comparatively small. Interestingly, despite the significant above-ground height, biomass, and productivity relationships across the tropical–temperate mangrove–marsh transition zone, the relationships between temperature and soil carbon density or soil carbon accumulation were not significant. Our literature review identifies several ecosystem properties and many regions of the world for which there are insufficient data to fully evaluate the influence of climatic drivers, and the identified data gaps can be used by scientists to guide future research. Our analyses indicate that near precipitation-controlled transition zones, small changes in precipitation are expected to trigger comparatively large changes in canopy height. However, there are scant data to evaluate the influence of precipitation on other ecosystem properties. There is a need for more decomposition data across climatic gradients, and to advance understanding of the influence of changes in precipitation and freshwater availability, additional ecological data are needed from tidal saline wetlands in arid climates. Collectively, our results can help scientists and managers better anticipate the linear and nonlinear ecological consequences of climate change for coastal wetlands.

Olive cultivars adaptability in Southern Italy in present and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccardi, M.; Alfieri, S.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Menenti, M.; De Lorenzi, F.

2012-04-01

The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops is very significant and likely to provide the single major opportunity to cope with the effects of the changing climate on agricultural ecosystems. Assessment of adaptive capacity must rely on quantitative descriptions of plant responses to environmental factors (e.g. soil water availability, temperature). Moreover climate scenario needs to be downscaled to the spatial scale relevant to crop and farm management. Distributed models of crop response to environmental forcing might be used for this purpose, but severely constrained by the very scarce knowledge on variety-specific values of model parameters, thus limiting the potential exploitation of intra-specific biodiversity towards adaptation. We have developed an approach towards this objective that relies on two complementary elements: a)a distributed model of the soil plant atmosphere system to downscale climate scenarios to landscape units, where generic model parameters for each species are used; b)a data base on climatic requirements of as many varieties as feasible for each species relevant to the agricultural production system of a given region. By means of this approach, the adaptability of some olive cultivars was evaluated in a composite (hills and plains) area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, Campania Region, about 20.000 ha). The yearly average temperature is 22.5 °C and rainfall ranges between 600 and 900 mm. Two different climate scenarios were considered: current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios at low spatial resolution were generated with general circulation models (AOGCM) and down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The climate was represented by daily observations of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km; 50 realizations were used for future climate. The soil water regime of 45 soil units was described for the two climate scenarios by using an hydrological distributed model (SWAP). For 11 olive cultivars, the yield response function to soil water regime was determined through the re-analysis of experimental data (unpublished or derived from scientific literature). According to these responses, cultivar-specific threshold values of soil water (or evapotranspiration) deficit were defined. The soil water regime calculated by the distributed model was compared with the threshold values to identify cultivars compatible with present and expected climates. The operation is repeated for a set of realizations of each climate scenario. This analysis is performed in a distributed manner, i.e. using the time series for each model grid to assess possible variations in the extent and spatial distribution of cultivated area of olive cultivars. In the study area future climate scenarios predict an increase of monthly minimum and maximum air temperature of about 2°C during the summer (June, July and August) and a reduction of rainfall in autumn. Spatial pattern of cultivars distribution, according their threshold values and soil water regime, was determined in the present and future climate scenarios, thus assessing variations in cultivars adaptability to future climate with respect to the present. Key words: climate change, biodiversity, water availability, yield response. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008).

The Impacts of a 2-Degree Rise in Global Temperatures upon Gas-Phase Air Pollutants in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Laura; Josse, Béatrice; Marecal, Virginie; Lacressonnière, Gwendoline; Vautard, Robert; Gauss, Michael; Engardt, Magnuz; Nyiri, Agnes; Siour, Guillaume

2014-05-01

The 15th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) in 2009 ratified the Copenhagen Accord, which "recognises the scientific view that" global temperature rise should be held below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit the impacts of climate change. Due to the fact that a 2-degree limit has been frequently referred to by policy makers in the context of the Copenhagen Accord and many other high-level policy statements, it is important that the impacts of this 2-degree increase in temperature are adequately analysed. To this end, the European Union sponsored the project IMPACT2C, which uses a multi-disciplinary international team to assess a wide variety of impacts of a 2-degree rise in global temperatures. For example, this future increase in temperature is expected to have a significant influence upon meteorological conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and wind direction and intensity; which will in turn affect the production, deposition, and distribution of air pollutants. For the first part of the air quality analysis within the IMPACT2C project, the impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants over Europe was studied using four offline atmospheric chemistry transport models. Two sets of meteorological forcings were used for each model: reanalysis of past observation data and global climate model output. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors for the year 2005 were used for all simulations in order to isolate the impact of meteorology and assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The differences between the simulations that use reanalysis of past observation data and the simulations that use global climate model output show how global climate models modify climate hindcasts by boundary conditions inputs: information that is necessary in order to interpret simulations of future climate. The baseline results were assessed by comparison with AirBase (Version 7) measurement data, and were then used as a reference for an analysis of future climate scenarios upon European air quality. The future scenarios included two types of emission data for the year 2050: one set of emission data corresponding to a current legislation scenario and another corresponding to a scenario with a maximum feasible reduction in emissions. The future scenarios were run for the time period that corresponds to a 2-degree increase in global temperatures; a time period that varies depending on which global climate model is used. In order to calculate the effect of climate change on emission reduction scenarios, the "climate penalty", the future simulations were compared to a simulation using the same future emissions but with current (2005) climate. Results show that climate change will have consequential impacts with regards to the production and geographical distribution of ozone and nitrogen oxides.

Future Water Management in the South Platte River Basin: Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing, Population, Agriculture, and Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Anderson, A. M.; Read, L.

2015-12-01

In semi-arid basins across the world, the gap between water supply and demand is growing due to climate change, population growth, and shifts in agriculture and unconventional energy development. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques and innovative regulatory frameworks for water management strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these strategies are often difficult to quantify and not included in modeling water allocations. Decision support systems (DSS) are purposeful for supporting water managers in making informed decisions when competing demands create the need to optimize water allocation between sectors. One region of particular interest is the semi-arid region of the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado, where anthropogenic and climatic effects are expected to increase the gap between water supply and demand in the near future. Specifically, water use in the South Platte is impacted by several high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, i.e. hydraulic fracturing, and large withdrawals for agriculture; these demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050. The current work describes the development of a DSS for the South Platte River basin, using the Water Evaluation and Planning system software (WEAP) to explore scenarios of how variation in future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal sectors will impact water allocation decisions. Detailed data collected on oil and gas water use in the Niobrara shale play will be utilized to predict future sector use. We also employ downscaled climate projections for the region to quantify the potential range of water availability in the basin under each scenario, and observe whether or not, and to what extent, climate may impact management decisions at the basin level.

The future of our National Forests: Enhancing adaptive capacity

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce

2012-01-01

Ecosystems are changing in response to observed changes in climate, extreme events, and disturbances such as fire and insects. We read not only that these changes are occurring but that we should expect them to continue - changes in temperature; more extreme events; and more disturbances such as fire and insects that are not like the past. Key point: these changes in...

Why understanding the impacts of the changing environment on river basin hydrology matters in Texas?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, H.; Zhao, G.; Lee, K.; Zhang, S.; Shen, X.; Shao, M.; Nickelson, C.

2017-12-01

The State of Texas is prone to floods and droughts—both of which are expected to become more frequent, and more intensified, under a changing climate. This has a direct negative effect on agricultural productivity, which is a major revenue source for the state. Meanwhile, with the rapid population growth and economic development, the burden to Texas water resources is exacerbated by the ever increasing demands from users. From a hydrological processes perspective, the direct consequence of the increased impervious area due to urbanization is greater surface runoff and higher flood peaks. Although many reservoirs have been built during the past several decades to regulate river flows and increase water supply, the role of these reservoirs in the context of different future climate change and urbanization scenarios needs to be explored. Furthermore, phytoplankton productivity—an important indicator of coastal ecosystem health— is significantly affected by river discharge. The objective of this presentation is to reveal the importance of understanding the impacts of climate change, urbanization, and flow regulation on Texas river flows, water resources, and coastal water quality. Using state-of-the-art modeling and remote sensing techniques, we will showcase our results over representative Texas river basins and bay areas. A few examples include modeling peak flows in the San Antonio River Basin, evaluating water supply resilience under future drought and urbanization over the Dallas metropolitan area, projecting future crop yields from Texas agricultural lands, and monitoring and forecasting Chlorophyll-a concentrations over Galveston Bay. Results from these studies are expected to provide information relevant to decision making, both with regard to water resources management and to ecosystem protection.

Stochastic ice stream dynamics

PubMed Central

Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution. PMID:27457960

A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

2017-12-01

Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

PubMed

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The greening of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamsal, Pramod; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; Atreya, Kishor

2017-12-01

The possible disruption of climate change (CC) on the ecological, economic and social segments of human interest has made this phenomenon a major issue over the last couple of decades. Mountains are fragile ecosystems, projected to endure a higher impact from the increased warming. This study presents modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability for the growth of nine near-treeline plant species of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau through niche modelling technique using CLIMEX and estimates their potential future distribution and the extent of greening in the region. Two global climate models, CSIRO-MK 3.0 (CS) and MIROCH-H (MR) were used under IPCC A1B and A2 emission scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that climatic suitability of the nine species expands towards higher elevations into areas that are currently unsuitable while currently suitable areas in many regions become climatically unsuitable in the future. The total climatically suitable area for the nine species at current time is around 1.09 million km2, with an additional 0.68 and 0.35 million km2 becoming suitable by 2050 and 2100 respectively. High elevation belts, especially those lying above 3500 m, will see more climatically suitable areas for the nine species in the future. Cold stress is the main factor limiting current distribution and its decrease will affect the overall expansion of climatic suitability in the region. Impacts on nature conservation and water and food security could be expected from such shift of climatic suitability in the region. The species includes (i) Abies spectabilis, (ii) Acer campbellii, (iii) Betula utilis, (iv) Juniperus indica, (v) Quercus semecarpifolia, (vi) Tsuga dumosa, (vii) Rhododendron campanulatum, (viii) Ephedra gerardiana, and (ix) Cassiope fastigiata. The species list from top to bottom are (i) Abies spectabilis, (ii) Acer campbellii, (iii) Betula utilis, (iv) Juniperus indica, (v) Quercus semecarpifolia, (vi) Tsuga dumosa, (vii) Rhododendron campanulatum, (viii) Ephedra gerardiana, and (ix) Cassiope fastigiata.

Environmental and socio-economic vulnerability of agricultural sector in Armenia.

PubMed

Melkonyan, Ani

2014-08-01

Being a mountainous country, Armenia has undergone different kinds of natural disasters, such as droughts, floods, and storms, which have a direct influence on economy and are expected to occur more frequently in terms of climate change, raising the need to estimate economic vulnerability especially in agricultural sector. Agriculture plays a great role in national economy of Armenia, with 21% share in Gross Domestic Production (GDP). For this reason, the estimation of agricultural resources of the country, their vulnerability towards current and future climate, and assessment of economical loss of the agricultural crop production due to climate change are the main goals of the given study. Crop productivity in dependence on climatic elements - temperature, radiation, precipitation, wind field, etc. has been estimated, further on interpolating these relations for future climate conditions using climate projections in the region for the time period of 2011-2040. Data on air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and direction for the period of 1966-2011 have been taken from 30 stations from the measuring network of Armenian State Hydrometeorological Service. Other climatic parameters like potential and actual evapotranspiration, soil temperature and humidity, field capacity, and wilting point have been calculated with the help of an AMBAV/AMBETTI (agroclimatic) model (German Weather Service). The results showed that temperature increase accompanied with evapotranspiration increase and water availability decrease especially in low and mid-low altitudes (where the main national crop production is centralized) caused a significant shift in the phenological phases of crops, which is very important information for effective farming dates, giving an opportunity to raise efficiency of agricultural production through minimizing the yield loss due to unfavorable climatic conditions. With the help of macroeconomical analysis of the crop market, it was estimated that the economical loss of the wheat production due to even drier conditions in the future climate (2011-2040) will be more than doubled, causing essential problems in irrigation systems with sparse water resources. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Tropical amphibians in shifting thermal landscapes under land-use and climate change.

PubMed

Nowakowski, A Justin; Watling, James I; Whitfield, Steven M; Todd, Brian D; Kurz, David J; Donnelly, Maureen A

2017-02-01

Land-cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land-cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CT max ). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land-cover types and CT max of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat-specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CT max exceeded their habitat-specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land-cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land-cover and climate-change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business-as-usual land-cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7- to 4.5-fold greater losses in TSH area than land-cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest-restricted species had lower mean CT max than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land-cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.