Evaluating physical habitat and water chemistry data from statewide stream monitoring programs to establish least-impacted conditions in Washington State

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilmoth, Siri K.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Larson, Chad

2015-01-01

Various GIS-generated land-use predictor variables, physical habitat metrics, and water chemistry variables from 75 reference streams and 351 randomly sampled sites throughout Washington State were evaluated for effectiveness at discriminating reference from random sites within level III ecoregions. A combination of multivariate clustering and ordination techniques were used. We describe average observed conditions for a subset of predictor variables as well as proposing statistical criteria for establishing reference conditions for stream habitat in Washington. Using these criteria, we determined whether any of the random sites met expectations for reference condition and whether any of the established reference sites failed to meet expectations for reference condition. Establishing these criteria will set a benchmark from which future data will be compared.

The influence of age on perceptions of anticipated financial inadequacy by palliative radiation outpatients.

PubMed

Francoeur, Richard B

2007-12-01

A consistent body of knowledge suggests that with advancing age, adults tend to report lower financial strain from their current economic condition. But are more negative perceptions shifted onto their expectations about their future economic condition? This study of seriously ill outpatients investigates whether advancing age is related to more negative expectations of future health-related financial strain, in which illness progression would necessitate greater health care consumption. Ordinal probit multivariate regression was conducted on survey findings from 268 outpatients initiating palliative radiation for recurrent cancer. Half were retirees age>/=65. Age comparisons are reported when there was no recent work transition. As age advances (from 40 to 84), outpatients incurring low objective financial stress were more likely to reveal that their health insurance and finances would be less adequate to meet future health needs. Previously, these outpatients were reported to minimize perceptions of current financial strain as age advances. Therefore, older outpatients may cope with current circumstances by displacing perceptions of financial inadequacy onto plausible future situations of cancer progression demanding greater healthcare consumption. Financial strain may be hidden in older outpatients initiating palliative radiation. These outpatients appear at risk of foregoing appropriate healthcare. Targeted screening and advocacy are warranted.

Prospection and emotional memory: how expectation affects emotional memory formation following sleep and wake

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Tony J.; Chambers, Alexis M.; Payne, Jessica D.

2014-01-01

Successful prospective memory is necessarily driven by an expectation that encoded information will be relevant in the future, leading to its preferential placement in memory storage. Like expectation, emotional salience is another type of cue that benefits human memory formation. Although separate lines of research suggest that both emotional information and information explicitly expected to be important in the future benefit memory consolidation, it is unknown how expectation affects the processing of emotional information and whether sleep, which is known to maximize memory consolidation, plays a critical role. The purpose of this study was to investigate how expectation would impact the consolidation of emotionally salient content, and whether this impact would differ across delays of sleep and wake. Participants encoded scenes containing an emotionally charged negative or neutral foreground object placed on a plausible neutral background. After encoding, half of the participants were informed they would later be tested on the scenes (expected condition), while the other half received no information about the test (unexpected condition). At recognition, following a 12-h delay of sleep or wakefulness, the scene components (objects and backgrounds) were presented separately and one at a time, and participants were asked to determine if each component was old or new. Results revealed a greater disparity for memory of negative objects over their paired neutral backgrounds for both the sleep and wake groups when the memory test was expected compared to when it was unexpected, while neutral memory remained unchanged. Analyzing each group separately, the wake group showed a threefold increase in the magnitude of this object/background trade-off for emotional scenes when the memory test was expected compared to when it was unexpected, while those who slept performed similarly across conditions. These results suggest that emotional salience and expectation cues interact to benefit emotional memory consolidation during a delay of wakefulness. The sleeping brain, however, may automatically tag emotionally salient information as important, such that explicit instruction of an upcoming memory test does not further improve memory performance. PMID:25136328

Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

2016-07-01

There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

PubMed

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

PubMed Central

Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

Rigorous control conditions diminish treatment effects in weight loss randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Dawson, John A.; Kaiser, Kathryn A.; Affuso, Olivia; Cutter, Gary R.; Allison, David B.

2015-01-01

Background It has not been established whether control conditions with large weight losses (WLs) diminish expected treatment effects in WL or prevention of weight gain (PWG) randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Subjects/Methods We performed a meta-analysis of 239 WL/PWG RCTs that include a control group and at least one treatment group. A maximum likelihood meta-analysis framework is used in order to model and understand the relationship between treatment effects and control group outcomes. Results Under the informed model, an increase in control group WL of one kilogram corresponds with an expected shrinkage of the treatment effect by 0.309 kg [95% CI (−0.480, −0.138), p = 0.00081]; this result is robust against violations of the model assumptions. Conclusions We find that control conditions with large weight losses diminish expected treatment effects. Our investigation may be helpful to clinicians as they design future WL/PWG studies. PMID:26449419

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Basolateral Amygdala to Orbitofrontal Cortex Projections Enable Cue-Triggered Reward Expectations.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Nina T; Pennington, Zachary T; Holley, Sandra M; Greenfield, Venuz Y; Cepeda, Carlos; Levine, Michael S; Wassum, Kate M

2017-08-30

To make an appropriate decision, one must anticipate potential future rewarding events, even when they are not readily observable. These expectations are generated by using observable information (e.g., stimuli or available actions) to retrieve often quite detailed memories of available rewards. The basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) are two reciprocally connected key nodes in the circuitry supporting such outcome-guided behaviors. But there is much unknown about the contribution of this circuit to decision making, and almost nothing known about the whether any contribution is via direct, monosynaptic projections, or the direction of information transfer. Therefore, here we used designer receptor-mediated inactivation of OFC→BLA or BLA→OFC projections to evaluate their respective contributions to outcome-guided behaviors in rats. Inactivation of BLA terminals in the OFC, but not OFC terminals in the BLA, disrupted the selective motivating influence of cue-triggered reward representations over reward-seeking decisions as assayed by Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer. BLA→OFC projections were also required when a cued reward representation was used to modify Pavlovian conditional goal-approach responses according to the reward's current value. These projections were not necessary when actions were guided by reward expectations generated based on learned action-reward contingencies, or when rewards themselves, rather than stored memories, directed action. These data demonstrate that BLA→OFC projections enable the cue-triggered reward expectations that can motivate the execution of specific action plans and allow adaptive conditional responding. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Deficits anticipating potential future rewarding events are associated with many psychiatric diseases. Presently, we know little about the neural circuits supporting such reward expectation. Here we show that basolateral amygdala to orbitofrontal cortex projections are required for expectations of specific available rewards to influence reward seeking and decision making. The necessity of these projections was limited to situations in which expectations were elicited by reward-predictive cues. These projections therefore facilitate adaptive behavior by enabling the orbitofrontal cortex to use environmental stimuli to generate expectations of potential future rewarding events. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378374-11$15.00/0.

Basolateral Amygdala to Orbitofrontal Cortex Projections Enable Cue-Triggered Reward Expectations

PubMed Central

Lichtenberg, Nina T.; Pennington, Zachary T.; Holley, Sandra M.; Greenfield, Venuz Y.; Levine, Michael S.

2017-01-01

To make an appropriate decision, one must anticipate potential future rewarding events, even when they are not readily observable. These expectations are generated by using observable information (e.g., stimuli or available actions) to retrieve often quite detailed memories of available rewards. The basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) are two reciprocally connected key nodes in the circuitry supporting such outcome-guided behaviors. But there is much unknown about the contribution of this circuit to decision making, and almost nothing known about the whether any contribution is via direct, monosynaptic projections, or the direction of information transfer. Therefore, here we used designer receptor-mediated inactivation of OFC→BLA or BLA→OFC projections to evaluate their respective contributions to outcome-guided behaviors in rats. Inactivation of BLA terminals in the OFC, but not OFC terminals in the BLA, disrupted the selective motivating influence of cue-triggered reward representations over reward-seeking decisions as assayed by Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer. BLA→OFC projections were also required when a cued reward representation was used to modify Pavlovian conditional goal-approach responses according to the reward's current value. These projections were not necessary when actions were guided by reward expectations generated based on learned action-reward contingencies, or when rewards themselves, rather than stored memories, directed action. These data demonstrate that BLA→OFC projections enable the cue-triggered reward expectations that can motivate the execution of specific action plans and allow adaptive conditional responding. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Deficits anticipating potential future rewarding events are associated with many psychiatric diseases. Presently, we know little about the neural circuits supporting such reward expectation. Here we show that basolateral amygdala to orbitofrontal cortex projections are required for expectations of specific available rewards to influence reward seeking and decision making. The necessity of these projections was limited to situations in which expectations were elicited by reward-predictive cues. These projections therefore facilitate adaptive behavior by enabling the orbitofrontal cortex to use environmental stimuli to generate expectations of potential future rewarding events. PMID:28743727

Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

Treesearch

Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2012-01-01

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

Effect of temperature shock and inventory surprises on natural gas and heating oil futures returns.

PubMed

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Hu, Yi-Chung; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station.

Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

PubMed Central

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

Virtual reality games for movement rehabilitation in neurological conditions: how do we meet the needs and expectations of the users?

PubMed

Lewis, Gwyn N; Rosie, Juliet A

2012-01-01

To review quantitative and qualitative studies that have examined the users' response to virtual reality game-based interventions in people with movement disorders associated with chronic neurological conditions. We aimed to determine key themes that influenced users' enjoyment and engagement in the games and develop suggestions as to how future systems could best address their needs and expectations. There were a limited number of studies that evaluated user opinions. From those found, seven common themes emerged: technology limitations, user control and therapist assistance, the novel physical and cognitive challenge, feedback, social interaction, game purpose and expectations, and the virtual environments. Our key recommendations derived from the review were to avoid technology failure, maintain overt therapeutic principles within the games, encompass progression to promote continuing physical and cognitive challenge, and to provide feedback that is easily and readily associated with success. While there have been few studies that have evaluated the users' perspective of virtual rehabilitation games, our findings indicate that canvassing these experiences provides valuable information on the needs of the intended users. Incorporating our recommendations may enhance the efficacy of future systems to optimize the rehabilitation benefits of virtual reality games.

Detectors for Linear Colliders: Physics Requirements and Experimental Conditions (1/4)

ScienceCinema

Battaglia, Marco

2018-01-12

How is the anticipated physics program of a future e+e- collider shaping the R&D; for new detectors in collider particle physics ? This presentation will review the main physics requirements and experimental conditions comparing to LHC and LEP. In particular, I shall discuss how e+e- experimentation is expected to change moving from LEP-2 up to multi-TeV energies.

West Coast atmospheric river climatology in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a flurry of research on how atmospheric river events (ARs) will respond to anthropogenic global warming. This study uses 10 CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models to focus on changes in AR frequency, seasonality, and synoptic conditions along the west coast of the United States and is a follow-up to previous work by the same authors (Warner et al. 2015) which investigated expected changes in AR intensity in the same region. There are only very slight changes in annual AR climatology from the end of the last century to the end of this century when considering the most extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (99th percentile). However, when evaluating by the number of future days exceeding a historical threshold, there are significant increases in extreme IVT events in all months, especially during months when the majority of events take place. The peaks in historical and future frequency occur in similar months given the amount of model variability. Extreme IVT events appear to be occurring slightly earlier in the season, particularly along the northern US coast, and these results are similar to other studies. Spatially, 10-model mean historical composites of IVT reveal canonical AR conditions. At locations farther south, there is less model agreement on the spatial extent and intensity of AR events; whereas farther north, the various models are in agreement. Composites of future events indicate very little spatial change from historical events. The location and orientation of AR events in the historical and future time periods are similar, and the upper-level winds change little over that time period (Warner et al. 2015). This suggests little change in synoptic conditions for approaching ARs. The future-historical difference plots highlight the largest changes expected in the future, namely increases in IVT intensity which are primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future integrated water vapor increases due to a warming atmosphere.

Asymmetric cellular memory in bacteria exposed to antibiotics.

PubMed

Mathis, Roland; Ackermann, Martin

2017-03-09

The ability to form a cellular memory and use it for cellular decision-making could help bacteria to cope with recurrent stress conditions. We analyzed whether bacteria would form a cellular memory specifically if past events are predictive of future conditions. We worked with the asymmetrically dividing bacterium Caulobacter crescentus where past events are expected to only be informative for one of the two cells emerging from division, the sessile cell that remains in the same microenvironment and does not migrate. Time-resolved analysis of individual cells revealed that past exposure to low levels of antibiotics increases tolerance to future exposure for the sessile but not for the motile cell. Using computer simulations, we found that such an asymmetry in cellular memory could be an evolutionary response to situations where the two cells emerging from division will experience different future conditions. Our results raise the question whether bacteria can evolve the ability to form and use cellular memory conditionally in situations where it is beneficial.

SOURCES AND RADIATIVE PROPERTIES OF ORGANOSULFATES IN THE ATMOSPHERE

EPA Science Inventory

It is expected that these studies will provide mechanistic insight to how SOA forms under acidic conditions and how it impacts direct and indirect radiative forcing. Understanding the chemical and physical properties of SOA will lead to future advancements in the predictive...

Self-passivating bulk tungsten-based alloys manufactured by powder metallurgy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Ruiz, P.; Ordás, N.; Lindig, S.; Koch, F.; Iturriza, I.; García-Rosales, C.

2011-12-01

Self-passivating tungsten-based alloys are expected to provide a major safety advantage compared to pure tungsten, which is at present the main candidate material for the first wall armour of future fusion reactors. WC10Si10 alloys were manufactured by mechanical alloying (MA) in a Planetary mill and subsequent hot isostatic pressing (HIP), achieving densities above 95%. Different MA conditions were studied. After MA under optimized conditions, a core with heterogeneous microstructure was found in larger powder particles, resulting in the presence of some large W grains after HIP. Nevertheless, the obtained microstructure is significantly refined compared to previous work. First MA trials were also performed on the Si-free system WCr12Ti2.5. In this case a very homogeneous structure inside the powder particles was obtained, and a majority ternary metastable bcc phase was found, indicating that almost complete alloying occurred. Therefore, a very fine and homogeneous microstructure can be expected after HIP in future work.

Regulatory focus affects predictions of the future.

PubMed

Guo, Tieyuan; Spina, Roy

2015-02-01

This research investigated how regulatory focus might influence trend-reversal predictions. We hypothesized that compared with promotion focus, prevention focus hinders sense of control, which in turn predicts more trend-reversal developments. Studies 1 and 3 revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur when they focused on prevention than when they focused on promotion. Study 2 extended the findings by including a control condition, and revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur in the prevention condition than in the promotion and control conditions. Studies 4 and 5 revealed that participants' chronic prevention focus predicted a low sense of control (Study 4), and that promotion focus predicted a high sense of control (Studies 4 and 5). Furthermore, participants with a high sense of control expected trend-reversal developments to be less likely to occur. Thus, the results provided converging evidence for the hypothesis. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

CRISPR-mediated Ophthalmic Genome Surgery.

PubMed

Cho, Galaxy Y; Abdulla, Yazeed; Sengillo, Jesse D; Justus, Sally; Schaefer, Kellie A; Bassuk, Alexander G; Tsang, Stephen H; Mahajan, Vinit B

2017-09-01

Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) is a genome engineering system with great potential for clinical applications due to its versatility and programmability. This review highlights the development and use of CRISPR-mediated ophthalmic genome surgery in recent years. Diverse CRISPR techniques are in development to target a wide array of ophthalmic conditions, including inherited and acquired conditions. Preclinical disease modeling and recent successes in gene editing suggest potential efficacy of CRISPR as a therapeutic for inherited conditions. In particular, the treatment of Leber congenital amaurosis with CRISPR-mediated genome surgery is expected to reach clinical trials in the near future. Treatment options for inherited retinal dystrophies are currently limited. CRISPR-mediated genome surgery methods may be able to address this unmet need in the future.

Future Expectations, Attitude Toward Violence, and Bullying Perpetration During Early Adolescence: A Mediation Evaluation.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Varela, Jorge J; Zimmerman, Marc A

2015-01-01

Hopeful future expectations have been linked to positive developmental outcomes in adolescence; however, the association between future expectations and bullying perpetration has received less attention. We examined the relationship between future expectations and physical and relational bullying perpetration and tested a mediation model that linked future expectations with bullying through attitude toward violence. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the relationship between future expectations and bullying perpetration (relational and physical) and to test whether these relationships were mediated by attitude toward violence in a sample of U.S. seventh-grade students (Mage = 12.86 years, N = 196, 60% female, 46% African American). Attitude toward violence fully mediated the relationship between future expectations and physical bullying (indirect effects = -0.08, 95% CI [-0.15, -0.01], R = .17). The relationship between future expectations and relational bullying was partially mediated by attitudes toward violence (indirect effects = -0.07, 95% CI [-0.14, -0.002], R = .20). Our findings suggest that future expectations can play a role in reducing attitude toward violence and physical and relational bullying perpetration among youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in bullying prevention efforts.

Developmental changes in autonomic responses are associated with future reward/punishment expectations: A study of sympathetic skin responses in the Markov decision task.

PubMed

Hosaka, Hiromi; Aoyagi, Kakuro; Kaga, Yoshimi; Kanemura, Hideaki; Sugita, Kanji; Aihara, Masao

2017-08-01

Autonomic nervous system activity is recognized as a major component of emotional responses. Future reward/punishment expectations depend upon the process of decision making in the frontal lobe, which is considered to play an important role in executive function. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between autonomic responses and decision making during reinforcement tasks using sympathetic skin responses (SSR). Nine adult and 9 juvenile (mean age, 10.2years) volunteers were enrolled in this study. SSRs were measured during the Markov decision task (MDT), which is a reinforcement task. In this task, subjects must endure a small immediate loss to ultimately get a large reward. The subjects had to undergo three sets of tests and their scores in these tests were assessed and evaluated. All adults showed gradually increasing scores for the MDT from the first to third set. As the trial progressed from the first to second set in adults, SSR appearance ratios remarkably increased for both punishment and reward expectations. In comparison with adults, children showed decreasing scores from the first to second set. There were no significant inter-target differences in the SSR appearance ratio in the first and second set in children. In the third set, the SSR appearance ratio for reward expectations was higher than that in the neutral condition. In reinforcement tasks, such as MDT, autonomic responses play an important role in decision making. We assume that SSRs are elicited during efficient decision making tasks associated with future reward/punishment expectations, which demonstrates the importance of autonomic function. In contrast, in children around the age of 10years, the autonomic system does not react as an organized response specific to reward/punishment expectations. This suggests the immaturity of the future reward/punishment expectations process in children. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The climatic and hydrologic history of southern Nevada during the late Quaternary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forester, R.M.; Bradbury, J.P.; Carter, C.

Understanding climate change during the expected life span of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, requires estimates of future climate boundary conditions. These climate boundary conditions are governed by changes in the Earth's orbital properties (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) that determine insolation. Subcycles of the 400,000 year insolation-controlled climate cycles last approximately 100,000 years. This report describes the changes which have occurred in the climatic history of Southern Nevada during the past 400,000 years. These changes provide a basis for understanding the changes which may occur during the long-term future in this area.

Swedish medical students' expectations of their future life

PubMed Central

Andersson, Jenny; Johansson, Eva E.; Verdonk, Petra; Lagro-Janssen, Antoine; Hamberg, Katarina

2011-01-01

Objectives: To investigate future life expectations among male and female medical students in their first and final year. Methods The study was cross-sectional and conducted at a Swedish medical school. Out of 600 invited students, 507 (85%) answered an open-ended question about their future life, 298 (59%) first-year students and 209 (41%) last-year students. Women constituted 60% of the respondents. A mixed model design was applied; qualitative content analysis was utilized to create statistically comparable themes and categories. Results Students’ written answers were coded, categorized and clustered into four themes: “Work”, “Family”, “Leisure” and “Quality of personal life”. Almost all students included aspects of work in their answers. Female students were more detailed than male ones in their family concerns. Almost a third of all students reflected on a future work-life balance, but considerations regarding quality of personal life and leisure were more common among last-year students. Conclusions Today’s medical students expect more of life than work, especially those standing on the doorstep of working life. They intend to balance work not only with a family but also with leisure activities. Our results reflect work attitudes that challenge the health care system for more adaptive working conditions. We suggest that discussions about work-life balance should be included in medical curricula.

Analysis of potential future droughts limiting maize production, in the Luvuvhu River catchment area, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masupha, Teboho Elisa; Moeletsi, Mokhele Edmond

2018-06-01

Recurring droughts associated with global warming have raised major concern for the agricultural sector, particularly vulnerable small-scale farmers who rely on rain-fed farming such as in the Luvuvhu River catchment. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) were calculated to assess drought on a 120-day maturing maize crop based on outputs of the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 under RCP 4.5 emission scenario, for the period 1980/81-2089/90. Results by SPEI show that 40-54% of the agricultural seasons during the base period experienced mild drought conditions (SPEI 0 to -0.99), equivalent to a recurrence of once in two seasons. However, WRSI results clearly indicated that stations in the drier regions (annual rainfall <600 mm) of the catchment experienced mild drought (WRSI 70 - 79) corresponding to satisfactory crop performance every season. Results further showed overall mild to moderate droughts in the beginning of the near-future climate period (2020/21-2036/37) with SPEI values not decreasing below -1.5. These conditions are then expected to change during the far-future climate period (2055/56-2089/90), whereby results on the expected crop performance predicted significantly drier conditions (p < 0.05). This study provided information on how farmers in the area can prepare for future agricultural seasons, while there is sufficient time to implement strategies to reduce drought risk potential. Thus, integrated interventions could provide best options for improving livelihoods and building the capability of farmers to manage climate change-related stresses.

The Nature of Work in a Changing Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Best, Fred

1985-01-01

Influences on the future world of work are considered: values and world views, knowledge and skills, management and organizational norms, general economic conditions, investment and savings, availability of raw materials, economic competition, and technological developments. Also discusses the rate of change and where transitions are expected to…

A decision support tool for setting population objectives for priority landbirds in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Quachitas Bird Conservation Regions

Treesearch

D. Todd Jones-Farrand; John M. Tirpak; Frank R. Thompson; Daniel J. Twedt; Charles K. Baxter; Jane A. Fitzgerald; William B. Uihlein

2009-01-01

Setting and achieving population objectives for priority landbirds must be informed by, 1) the quantity, quality, and spatial confi guration of available habitat, 2) an explicit linkage between habitat condition and population response, and 3) expected future habitat conditions. Based on this philosophy, the Central Hardwoods and Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Ventures...

Promoting Positive Future Expectations During Adolescence: The Role of Assets.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Pierce, Jennifer

2015-12-01

Positive future expectations can facilitate optimal development and contribute to healthier outcomes for youth. Researchers suggest that internal resources and community-level factors may influence adolescent future expectations, yet little is known about the processes through which these benefits are conferred. The present study examined the relationship between contribution to community, neighborhood collective efficacy, purpose, hope and future expectations, and tested a mediation model that linked contribution to community and collective efficacy with future expectations through purpose and hope in a sample of 7th grade youth (N = 196; Mage = 12.39; 60 % female; 40 % African American; 71 % economically disadvantaged). Greater collective efficacy and contribution to community predicted higher levels of hope and purpose. Higher levels of hope and purpose predicted more positive future expectations. Contribution to community and neighborhood collective efficacy indirectly predicted future expectations via hope. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Promoting Positive Future Expectations during Adolescence: The Role of Assets

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Sarah A.; Pierce, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Positive future expectations can facilitate optimal development and contribute to healthier outcomes for youth. Researchers suggest that internal resources and community-level factors may influence adolescent future expectations, yet little is known about the processes through which these benefits are conferred. The present study examined the relationship between contribution to community, neighborhood collective efficacy, purpose, hope and future expectations, and tested a mediation model that linked contribution to community and collective efficacy with future expectations through purpose and hope in a sample of 7th grade youth (N = 196; Mage = 12.39; 60% female; 40% African American; 71% economically disadvantaged). Greater collective efficacy and contribution to community predicted higher levels of hope and purpose. Higher levels of hope and purpose predicted more positive future expectations. Contribution to community and neighborhood collective efficacy indirectly predicted future expectations via hope. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:26385095

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated. PMID:29252985

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

PubMed

Bombi, Pierluigi; D'Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

Optimizing performance through intrinsic motivation and attention for learning: The OPTIMAL theory of motor learning.

PubMed

Wulf, Gabriele; Lewthwaite, Rebecca

2016-10-01

Effective motor performance is important for surviving and thriving, and skilled movement is critical in many activities. Much theorizing over the past few decades has focused on how certain practice conditions affect the processing of task-related information to affect learning. Yet, existing theoretical perspectives do not accommodate significant recent lines of evidence demonstrating motivational and attentional effects on performance and learning. These include research on (a) conditions that enhance expectancies for future performance, (b) variables that influence learners' autonomy, and (c) an external focus of attention on the intended movement effect. We propose the OPTIMAL (Optimizing Performance through Intrinsic Motivation and Attention for Learning) theory of motor learning. We suggest that motivational and attentional factors contribute to performance and learning by strengthening the coupling of goals to actions. We provide explanations for the performance and learning advantages of these variables on psychological and neuroscientific grounds. We describe a plausible mechanism for expectancy effects rooted in responses of dopamine to the anticipation of positive experience and temporally associated with skill practice. Learner autonomy acts perhaps largely through an enhanced expectancy pathway. Furthermore, we consider the influence of an external focus for the establishment of efficient functional connections across brain networks that subserve skilled movement. We speculate that enhanced expectancies and an external focus propel performers' cognitive and motor systems in productive "forward" directions and prevent "backsliding" into self- and non-task focused states. Expected success presumably breeds further success and helps consolidate memories. We discuss practical implications and future research directions.

Altered brain responses in subjects with irritable bowel syndrome during cued and uncued pain expectation.

PubMed

Hong, J-Y; Naliboff, B; Labus, J S; Gupta, A; Kilpatrick, L A; Ashe-McNalley, C; Stains, J; Heendeniya, N; Smith, S R; Tillisch, K; Mayer, E A

2016-01-01

A majority of the subjects with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) show increased behavioral and brain responses to expected and delivered aversive visceral stimuli during controlled rectal balloon distension, and during palpation of the sigmoid colon. We aimed to determine if altered brain responses to cued and uncued pain expectation are also seen in the context of a noxious somatic pain stimulus applied to the same dermatome as the sigmoid colon. A task-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging technique was used to investigate the brain activity of 37 healthy controls (18 females) and 37 IBS subjects (21 females) during: (i) a cued expectation of an electric shock to the abdomen vs a cued safe condition; and (ii) an uncued cross-hair condition in which the threat is primarily based on context vs a cued safe condition. Regions within the salience, attention, default mode, and emotional arousal networks were more activated by the cued abdominal threat condition and the uncued condition than in the cued safe condition. During the uncued condition contrasted to the cued safe condition, IBS subjects (compared to healthy control subjects) showed greater brain activations in the affective (amygdala, anterior insula) and attentional (middle frontal gyrus) regions, and in the thalamus and precuneus. These disease-related differences were primarily seen in female subjects. The observed greater engagement of cognitive and emotional brain networks in IBS subjects during contextual threat may reflect the propensity of IBS subjects to overestimate the likelihood and severity of future abdominal pain. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PREVENTING FUTURE SHOCK: A Case for Addressing Future Threats to America’s National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-04-01

both home and abroad and negotiating a convention to protect endangered sea turtles, whales and other limits to trade that threaten endangered species ...Botswana, and Zimbabwe have been decimated. In a region that would have calculated life expectancies to reach 70 years of age by 2010, many will...conditions is lower that 2.7% of the 1995 Gross Domestic Product for Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe , Botswana, Zambia and Malawi.71 African

Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists

PubMed Central

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-01-01

We describe two collaborations in which psychologists and economists provided essential support on foundational projects in major research programs. One project involved eliciting adolescents’ expectations regarding significant future life events affecting their psychological and economic development. The second project involved eliciting consumers’ expectations regarding inflation, a potentially vital input to their investment, saving, and purchasing decisions. In each project, we sought questions with the precision needed for economic modeling and the simplicity needed for lay respondents. We identify four conditions that, we believe, promoted our ability to sustain these transdisciplinary collaborations and coproduce the research: (i) having a shared research goal, which neither discipline could achieve on its own; (ii) finding common ground in shared methodology, which met each discipline’s essential evidentiary conditions, but without insisting on its culturally acquired tastes; (iii) sharing the effort throughout, with common language and sense of ownership; and (iv) gaining mutual benefit from both the research process and its products. PMID:28270610

Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists.

PubMed

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Fischhoff, Baruch

2017-03-28

We describe two collaborations in which psychologists and economists provided essential support on foundational projects in major research programs. One project involved eliciting adolescents' expectations regarding significant future life events affecting their psychological and economic development. The second project involved eliciting consumers' expectations regarding inflation, a potentially vital input to their investment, saving, and purchasing decisions. In each project, we sought questions with the precision needed for economic modeling and the simplicity needed for lay respondents. We identify four conditions that, we believe, promoted our ability to sustain these transdisciplinary collaborations and coproduce the research: ( i ) having a shared research goal, which neither discipline could achieve on its own; ( ii ) finding common ground in shared methodology, which met each discipline's essential evidentiary conditions, but without insisting on its culturally acquired tastes; ( iii ) sharing the effort throughout, with common language and sense of ownership; and ( iv ) gaining mutual benefit from both the research process and its products.

Expression of cyanobacterial FBP/SBPase in soybean prevents yield depression under future climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predictions suggest that current crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet global food and energy demands. Based on theory and experimental studies, overexpression of the photosynthetic enzyme sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase (SBPase) is expected to enhance C3 crop photosynthesis and yields. H...

The glass is not yet half empty: agitation but not Varroa treatment causes cognitive bias in honey bees.

PubMed

Schlüns, Helge; Welling, Helena; Federici, Julian René; Lewejohann, Lars

2017-03-01

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are prone to judge an ambiguous stimulus negatively if they had been agitated through shaking which simulates a predator attack. Such a cognitive bias has been suggested to reflect an internal emotional state analogous to humans who judge more pessimistically when they do not feel well. In order to test cognitive bias experimentally, an animal is conditioned to respond to two different stimuli, where one is punished while the other is rewarded. Subsequently a third, ambiguous stimulus is presented and it is measured whether the subject responds as if it expects a reward or a punishment. Generally, it is assumed that negative experiences lower future expectations, rendering the animals more pessimistic. Here we tested whether a most likely negatively experienced formic acid treatment against the parasitic mite Varroa destructor also affects future expectations of honey bees. We applied an olfactory learning paradigm (i.e., conditioned proboscis extension response) using two odorants and blends of these odorants as the ambiguous stimuli. Unlike agitating honey bees, exposure to formic acid did not significantly change the response to the ambiguous stimuli in comparison with untreated bees. Overall evidence suggests that the commonest treatment against one of the most harmful bee pests has no detrimental effects on cognitive bias in honey bees.

Identifying climate analogues for precipitation extremes for Denmark based on RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES database.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Funder, S G; Madsen, H

2015-01-01

Climate analogues, also denoted Space-For-Time, may be used to identify regions where the present climatic conditions resemble conditions of a past or future state of another location or region based on robust climate variable statistics in combination with projections of how these statistics change over time. The study focuses on assessing climate analogues for Denmark based on current climate data set (E-OBS) observations as well as the ENSEMBLES database of future climates with the aim of projecting future precipitation extremes. The local present precipitation extremes are assessed by means of intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban drainage design for the relevant locations being France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Based on this approach projected increases of extreme precipitation by 2100 of 9 and 21% are expected for 2 and 10 year return periods, respectively. The results should be interpreted with caution as the best region to represent future conditions for Denmark is the coastal areas of Northern France, for which only little information is available with respect to present precipitation extremes.

Questioning the Relevance of Model-Based Probability Statements on Extreme Weather and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2007-12-01

We question the relevance of climate-model based Bayesian (or other) probability statements for decision support and impact assessment on spatial scales less than continental and temporal averages less than seasonal. Scientific assessment of higher resolution space and time scale information is urgently needed, given the commercial availability of "products" at high spatiotemporal resolution, their provision by nationally funded agencies for use both in industry decision making and governmental policy support, and their presentation to the public as matters of fact. Specifically we seek to establish necessary conditions for probability forecasts (projections conditioned on a model structure and a forcing scenario) to be taken seriously as reflecting the probability of future real-world events. We illustrate how risk management can profitably employ imperfect models of complicated chaotic systems, following NASA's study of near-Earth PHOs (Potentially Hazardous Objects). Our climate models will never be perfect, nevertheless the space and time scales on which they provide decision- support relevant information is expected to improve with the models themselves. Our aim is to establish a set of baselines of internal consistency; these are merely necessary conditions (not sufficient conditions) that physics based state-of-the-art models are expected to pass if their output is to be judged decision support relevant. Probabilistic Similarity is proposed as one goal which can be obtained even when our models are not empirically adequate. In short, probabilistic similarity requires that, given inputs similar to today's empirical observations and observational uncertainties, we expect future models to produce similar forecast distributions. Expert opinion on the space and time scales on which we might reasonably expect probabilistic similarity may prove of much greater utility than expert elicitation of uncertainty in parameter values in a model that is not empirically adequate; this may help to explain the reluctance of experts to provide information on "parameter uncertainty." Probability statements about the real world are always conditioned on some information set; they may well be conditioned on "False" making them of little value to a rational decision maker. In other instances, they may be conditioned on physical assumptions not held by any of the modellers whose model output is being cast as a probability distribution. Our models will improve a great deal in the next decades, and our insight into the likely climate fifty years hence will improve: maintaining the credibility of the science and the coherence of science based decision support, as our models improve, require a clear statement of our current limitations. What evidence do we have that today's state-of-the-art models provide decision-relevant probability forecasts? What space and time scales do we currently have quantitative, decision-relevant information on for 2050? 2080?

National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

2012-01-01

Rates of shoreline change presented herein may differ from other published rates, and differences do not necessarily indicate that the other rates are inaccurate. Some discrepancies are to be expected, considering the many possible ways of determining shoreline positions and rates of change, and the inherent uncertainty in calculating these rates. Rates of shoreline change presented in this report represent shoreline movement under past conditions and are not intended for use in predicting future shoreline positions or future rates of shoreline change.

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical method, unchanged. The advantages of the suggested Pi-Td method of projecting future precipitation events from historic events is that it is simple to use, is less expensive time, computational and resource wise compared to a numerical model. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis such as for flood risk assessments.

[Future psychotherapists? Vocational plans and motivation for choosing psychotherapy as a career in german psychology students].

PubMed

Glaesmer, Heide; Spangenberg, Lena; Sonntag, Astrid; Brähler, Elmar; Strauss, Bernhard

2010-12-01

in Germany psychology students can be seen as the major personal resource in psychotherapy. Nevertheless there are few studies on their vocational plans and their interest in psychotherapeutic training. 480 psychology students completed a self-developed questionnaire on their career expectations. 90% of respondents report interest in clinical work and psychotherapeutic training. Most frequently they mention improving therapeutic competencies and career options as pros and current training requirements as cons. Their theoretical orientation (38% behaviour therapy, 19% psychodynamic therapy) is associated with their psychotherapeutic knowledge, study conditions and respondent's characteristics. psychology students consider working and training conditions for psychologists and psychotherapists, when thinking about their future career.

Analysis and modelling of surface Urban Heat Island in 20 Canadian cities under climate and land-cover change.

PubMed

Gaur, Abhishek; Eichenbaum, Markus Kalev; Simonovic, Slobodan P

2018-01-15

Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) is an urban climate phenomenon that is expected to respond to future climate and land-use land-cover change. It is important to further our understanding of physical mechanisms that govern SUHI phenomenon to enhance our ability to model future SUHI characteristics under changing geophysical conditions. In this study, SUHI phenomenon is quantified and modelled at 20 cities distributed across Canada. By analyzing MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensed surface temperature at the cities over 2002-2012, it is found that 16 out of 20 selected cities have experienced a positive SUHI phenomenon while 4 cities located in the prairies region and high elevation locations have experienced a negative SUHI phenomenon in the past. A statistically significant relationship between observed SUHI magnitude and city elevation is also recorded over the observational period. A Physical Scaling downscaling model is then validated and used to downscale future surface temperature projections from 3 GCMs and 2 extreme Representative Concentration Pathways in the urban and rural areas of the cities. Future changes in SUHI magnitudes between historical (2006-2015) and future timelines: 2030s (2026-2035), 2050s (2046-2055), and 2090s (2091-2100) are estimated. Analysis of future projected changes indicate that 15 (13) out of 20 cities can be expected to experience increases in SUHI magnitudes in future under RCP 2.6 (RCP 8.5). A statistically significant relationship between projected future SUHI change and current size of the cities is also obtained. The study highlights the role of city properties (i.e. its size, elevation, and surrounding land-cover) towards shaping their current and future SUHI characteristics. The results from this analysis will help decision-makers to manage Canadian cities more efficiently under rapidly changing geophysical and demographical conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Positive futures? The impact of HIV infection on achieving health, wealth and future planning.

PubMed

Harding, Richard; Molloy, Tim

2008-05-01

Although HIV is now cast as a chronic condition with favourable clinical outcomes under new treatments, it is unclear how living with HIV affects expectations and planning for the future. This mixed-methods study aimed to investigate UK gay men's expectations of their own future when living with HIV, and to identify the heath and social interventions required to enhance roles, participation and personal fulfilment. A preliminary focus group identified relevant domains of enquiry for a subsequent online cross-sectional survey. A total of 347 gay men living in the UK with HIV participated in the survey, and 56.6% were currently on treatment. However, high 7-day prevalence of psychological and physical symptoms was identified (42.6% in pain, 80.2% worrying); 57.8% perceived reduced career options due to their infection and 71.8% reduced life expectancy. Being on treatment was not significantly associated with perceived life expectancy. Coded open-ended survey data identified eight principle themes related to goal planning and attainment. The integrated open and closed data items offer an understanding of barriers and challenges that focus on poor mental health due to clinical inattention, discrimination and stigma, poor career and job opportunities due to benefit and workplace inflexibility and lack of understanding, a lack of personal goals and associated skills deficit related to confidence and self esteem. Gay men living with HIV require an integrated holistic approach to wellbeing that incorporates clinical, social and individual intervention in order to lead productive lives with maximum benefit from treatment gains.

An Exploration of the Factors Considered When Forming Expectations for Returning to Work following Sickness Absence Due to a Musculoskeletal Condition.

PubMed

Young, Amanda E; Choi, YoonSun; Besen, Elyssa

2015-01-01

Workers' own expectations for returning to work following a period of sickness absence have been found to be one of the best predictors of future work status; however, there is a limited understanding of why people expect what they do. The current study was undertaken with the aim of determining what people take into consideration when forming their expectations for returning to work. Thirty-four people (8 women, 26 men), who were off work due to a musculoskeletal condition, participated in one of 14 focus groups. Participants were aged 25 to 65 (M = 45, SD = 12.6), and all had been out of work for 3 months or less. All participants reported expecting to return to work, with the most common timeframe being approximately 30 days (Range = 1 day-12 months). When explaining what they thought about when forming their expectations, participants referenced numerous considerations. Much of what was spoken about could be compartmentalized to reflect features of themselves, their condition, or their broader environmental contexts. Participant's subjective experience of these features influenced his or her expectations. Prominent themes included concerns about employability, a desire to get back to normal, no job to go back to, mixed emotions, re-injury concerns, the judgments of workplace stakeholders, being needed by their employer, waiting for input, until the money runs out, and working out what was in their best interest. Indications are that many of the reported considerations are amenable to intervention, suggesting opportunities to assist workers in the process of returning to work.

Decision making.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2011-01-01

A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

Vegetation and environmental controls on soil respiration in a pinon-juniper woodland

Treesearch

Sandra A. White

2008-01-01

Soil respiration (RS) responds to changes in plant and microbial activity and environmental conditions. In arid ecosystems of the southwestern USA, soil moisture exhibits large fluctuations because annual and seasonal precipitation inputs are highly variable, with increased variability expected in the future. Patterns of soil moisture, and periodic severe drought, are...

Functional requirements for Waste Area Grouping 6 Monitoring Station 3 upgrade

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fiuzat, A.A.

1991-06-01

The surface Waste Area Grouping (WAG)6 at ORNL may undergo many changes in the future as part of the closure activities. Changes in surface characteristics will cause changes in runoff characteristics of the MS 3 watershed. Appropriate assumptions are to be made in this project regarding the future surface conditions of the watershed. The extent to which the assumed surface conditions will affect the project objectives (defined in Section 1.0) is to be identified. The purpose of this FRD is to establish performance requirements for MS 3 consisting of the following: (1) The expected range of discharges passing through themore » station and the required accuracy levels for discharge measurements. (2) The equipment required to measure the expected discharges at the required accuracy levels. (3) The sampling requirements for monitoring water quality. (4) The hydraulic requirements for the discharge conveyance structure to be located under the IWMF access road. (5) The design loads to be used for the bridge over the IWMF access road. 12 refs., 5 figs.« less

Delaying investments in sensor technology: The rationality of dairy farmers' investment decisions illustrated within the framework of real options theory.

PubMed

Rutten, C J; Steeneveld, W; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Hogeveen, H

2018-05-02

The adoption rate of sensors on dairy farms varies widely. Whereas some sensors are hardly adopted, others are adopted by many farmers. A potential rational explanation for the difference in adoption may be the expected future technological progress in the sensor technology and expected future improved decision support possibilities. For some sensors not much progress can be expected because the technology has already made enormous progress in recent years, whereas for sensors that have only recently been introduced on the market, much progress can be expected. The adoption of sensors may thus be partly explained by uncertainty about the investment decision, in which uncertainty lays in the future performance of the sensors and uncertainty about whether improved informed decision support will become available. The overall aim was to offer a plausible example of why a sensor may not be adopted now. To explain this, the role of uncertainty about technological progress in the investment decision was illustrated for highly adopted sensors (automated estrus detection) and hardly adopted sensors (automated body condition score). This theoretical illustration uses the real options theory, which accounts for the role of uncertainty in the timing of investment decisions. A discrete event model, simulating a farm of 100 dairy cows, was developed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of investing now and investing in 5 yr in both sensor systems. The results show that investing now in automated estrus detection resulted in a higher NPV than investing 5 yr from now, whereas for the automated body condition score postponing the investment resulted in a higher NPV compared with investing now. These results are in line with the observation that farmers postpone investments in sensors. Also, the current high adoption of automated estrus detection sensors can be explained because the NPV of investing now is higher than the NPV of investing in 5 yr. The results confirm that uncertainty about future sensor performance and uncertainty about whether improved decision support will become available play a role in investment decisions. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The placebo effect and homeopathy.

PubMed

Teixeira, Marcus Z; Guedes, Cristina H F F; Barreto, Patrícia V; Martins, Mílton A

2010-04-01

Like other forms of medicine, including Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM), homeopathy elicits expectations in patients. The physician-patient relationship, personal and comprehensive treatment and lack of adverse effects are elements in creating positive expectations. Other elements may be associated with negative expectations. We conducted a systematic literature review on placebo and nocebo effects in acupuncture and homeopathy using Medline. Findings on the psychophysiological and neuromediating mechanisms of the placebo-nocebo phenomenon are reviewed. Studies of these effects reveal how expectations and unconscious conditioning can be measured by imaging and EEG methods. They result in significant, non-specific therapeutic effects, which may confuse the evaluation of the specific therapeutic effects treatment, hampering selection of the simillimum. Directions for future research on non-specific therapeutic effects of homeopathy to improve clinical practice and clinical research are discussed.

Expectancy and Achievement Gaps in Educational Attainment and Subsequent Adverse Health Effects Among Adolescents With and Without Chronic Medical Conditions.

PubMed

Wisk, Lauren E; Weitzman, Elissa R

2017-10-01

While education-based disparities in health are common, the extent to which chronic conditions contribute to education gaps and to consequent health disparities is not fully understood. As such, we sought to investigate educational aspirations, expectations, and attainment among youth with and without chronic conditions and to determine if these relationships mediated subsequent disparities in health and well-being. Longitudinal data on 3,518 youths are from the 1997-2013 Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a population-based survey. Multivariate regression was used to assess disparities in educational aspirations, expectations, and attainment by chronic conditions and the subsequent effects on health and well-being, adjusting for important potential confounders. Youth with chronic medical conditions (YCMCs) did not report significantly lower educational aspirations than their healthy peers; however, YCMC reported lower expectations for their educational attainment and fewer YCMC had earned their desired degree by the end of follow-up (e.g., ≥bachelor's degree: 19.9% for YCMC vs. 26.0% for peers, p < .05). YCMC reported significantly worse general health, lower life satisfaction, and lower psychological well-being in young adulthood than did their healthy peers. These disparities persisted after adjustment for confounders; the association between chronic disease and health was partially, but significantly, mediated by actual educational attainment. Findings suggest an important risk mechanism through which YCMC may acquire socioeconomic disadvantage as they develop and progress through educational settings. Disproportionate lags in education, from expectation to attainment, may in turn increase YCMC's susceptibility to poor health and well-being in the future. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teh, L.; Bond, N.; KC, K. B.; Fraser, E. D. G.; Seng, R.; Sumaila, R.

2016-12-01

The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of fish and water resources upon which inhabitants are currently heavily dependent upon.

Integrated Management of all Historical, Operational and Future Decomissioning Solid ILW at Dounreay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, D.

This paper describes major components of the Dounreay Site Restoration Plan, DSRP to deal with the site's solid intermediate level waste, ILW legacy. Historic solid ILW exists in the Shaft (disposals between 1959 and 1977), the Wet Silo (operated between 1973 and 1998), and in operating engineered drummed storage. Significant further arisings are expected from future operations, post-operations clean out and decommissioning through to the completion of site restoration, expected to be complete by about 2060. The raw waste is in many solid forms and also incorporates sludge, some fissile material and hazardous chemical components. The aim of the Solidmore » ILW Project is to treat and condition all this waste to make it passively safe and in a form which can be stored for a substantial period, and then transported to the planned U.K. national deep repository for ILW disposal. The Solid ILW Project involves the construction of head works for waste retrieval operations at the Shaft and Wet Silo, a Waste Treatment Plant and a Conditioned Waste Store to hold the conditioned waste until the disposal facilities become available. In addition, there are infrastructure activities to enable the new construction: contaminated ground remediation, existing building demolition, underground and overground services diversion, sea cliff stabilization, and groundwater isolation at the Shaft.« less

Acclimatization to extreme heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

Transcriptomic response of the Antarctic pteropod Limacina helicina antarctica to ocean acidification.

PubMed

Johnson, Kevin M; Hofmann, Gretchen E

2017-10-23

Ocean acidification (OA), a change in ocean chemistry due to the absorption of atmospheric CO 2 into surface oceans, challenges biogenic calcification in many marine organisms. Ocean acidification is expected to rapidly progress in polar seas, with regions of the Southern Ocean expected to experience severe OA within decades. Biologically, the consequences of OA challenge calcification processes and impose an energetic cost. In order to better characterize the response of a polar calcifier to conditions of OA, we assessed differential gene expression in the Antarctic pteropod, Limacina helicina antarctica. Experimental levels of pCO 2 were chosen to create both contemporary pH conditions, and to mimic future pH expected in OA scenarios. Significant changes in the transcriptome were observed when juvenile L. h. antarctica were acclimated for 21 days to low-pH (7.71), mid-pH (7.9) or high-pH (8.13) conditions. Differential gene expression analysis of individuals maintained in the low-pH treatment identified down-regulation of genes involved in cytoskeletal structure, lipid transport, and metabolism. High pH exposure led to increased expression and enrichment for genes involved in shell formation, calcium ion binding, and DNA binding. Significant differential gene expression was observed in four major cellular and physiological processes: shell formation, the cellular stress response, metabolism, and neural function. Across these functional groups, exposure to conditions that mimic ocean acidification led to rapid suppression of gene expression. Results of this study demonstrated that the transcriptome of the juvenile pteropod, L. h. antarctica, was dynamic and changed in response to different levels of pCO 2 . In a global change context, exposure of L. h. antarctica to the low pH, high pCO 2 OA conditions resulted in a suppression of transcripts for genes involved in key physiological processes: calcification, metabolism, and the cellular stress response. The transcriptomic response at both acute and longer-term acclimation time frames indicated that contemporary L. h. antarctica may not have the physiological plasticity necessary for adaptation to OA conditions expected in future decades. Lastly, the differential gene expression results further support the role of shelled pteropods such as L. h. antarctica as sentinel organisms for the impacts of ocean acidification.

Implications of mechanistic modeling of drought effects on growth and competition in forest landscape models

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Arjan M. G. De Bruijn; Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; J. Thompson

2016-01-01

The incidence of drought is expected to increase worldwide as a factor structuring forested landscapes. Ecophysiological mechanisms are being added to Forest Landscape Models (FLMs) to increase their robustness to the novel environmental conditions of the future (including drought), but their behavior has not been evaluated for mixed temperate forests. We evaluated...

Climate change effects in El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico, and the Caribbean region

Treesearch

Lisa Nicole Jennings; Jamison Douglas; Emrys Treasure; Grizelle González

2014-01-01

Understanding the current and expected future conditions of natural resources under a changing climate is essential to making informed management decisions. However, the ever increasing volume of useful scientific information about climate change makes it difficult for managers and planners to effectively sort through and apply the emerging science. This report...

Analysis of the timber situation in Florida, 1995- 2025

Treesearch

Roger C. Conner; Raymond M. Sheffield

2005-01-01

The demand for wood fiber nationwide is expected to increase in the foreseeable future. Harvesting restrictions on forest lands in the West have increased pressure on the South's forest resources to provide more wood. The ability of Florida and other Southern States to respond is uncertain. The authors describe the current extent, condition, and availability of...

Projecting carbon footprint of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions with the integrated farm system model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dairy farms are an important sector of Canadian agriculture, and there is an on-going effort to assess their environmental impact. In Canada, like many northern areas of the world, climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity. This will likely come along with changes in environme...

Projecting trends in agronomic, economic, and environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity in Canada as in many northern areas in the world. This will likely come along with changes in the environmental and economic performance of dairy farms, one of the most important agricultural sectors in Canada. The objective of this s...

Toward a theory of persuasive hope: effects of cognitive appraisals, hope appeals, and hope in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Chadwick, Amy E

2015-01-01

Hope has the potential to be a powerful motivator for influencing behavior. However, hope and messages that evoke hope (hope appeals) have rarely been the focus of theoretical development or empirical research. As a step toward the effective development and use of hope appeals in persuasive communication, this study conceptualized and operationalized hope appeals in the context of climate change prevention. Then, the study manipulated components of the hope evocation part of a hope appeal. Specifically, the components were designed to address appraisals of the importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility of climate protection, resulting in a 2 (strong/weak importance) × 2 (strong/weak goal congruence) × 2 (strong/weak future expectation) × 2 (strong/weak possibility) between-subjects pretest-posttest factorial design. Two hundred forty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to one of the 16 message conditions and completed the study online. The study tested whether the four appraisals predict feelings of hope. It determined whether message components that address importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility affect appraisals, feelings of hope, and persuasion outcomes. Finally, this study tested the effects of feelings of hope on persuasion outcomes. This study takes an important step toward enabling the effective use of hope appeals in persuasive communication.

Patients' expectations of medicines--a review and qualitative synthesis.

PubMed

Dohnhammar, Ulrica; Reeve, Joanne; Walley, Tom

2016-04-01

An increasing part of prescribing of medicines is done for the purpose of managing risk for disease and is motivated by clinical and economic benefit on a long-term, population level. This makes benefit from medicines less tangible for individuals. Sociology of pharmaceuticals includes personal and social perspectives in the study of how medicines are used. We use two characterizations of patients' expectations of medicines to start forming a description of how individuals conceptualize benefits from risk management medicines. We reviewed the literature on patients' expectations with a focus on the influences on expectations regarding medicines prescribed for long-term conditions. Searches in Medline and Scopus identified 20 studies for inclusion, describing qualitative aspects of beliefs, views, thoughts and expectations regarding medicines. A qualitative synthesis using a constant comparative thematic analysis identified four themes describing influences on expectations: a need to achieve a specific outcome; the development of experiences and evaluation over time; negative values such as dependency and social stigma; and personalized meaning of the necessity and usefulness of medicines. The findings in this synthesis resonate with previous research into expectations of medicines for prevention and treatment of different conditions. However, a gap in the knowledge regarding patients' conceptualization of future benefits with medicines is identified. The study highlights suggestions for further empirical work to develop a deeper understanding of the role of patients' expectations in prescribing for long-term risk management. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adolescents' thoughts about parents' jobs and their importance for adolescents' future orientation.

PubMed

Neblett, Nicole Gardner; Cortina, Kai Schnabel

2006-10-01

The current study examined the relation between adolescents' perceptions of their parents' jobs and their future orientation, and tested the role of parental support. Four hundred and fifteen ninth through twelfth graders were surveyed about their parents' job rewards, self-direction, and stressors, as well as their expectations for employment and education prospects. Results indicate that perceptions of parents' rewards, self-direction, and stress predict how positively or negatively adolescents perceive the future to be. Results also suggest that higher levels of parental support may weaken the association between perceptions and future orientation when adolescents perceive their parents experience unfavorable conditions at work. These results suggest that adolescents' perceptions of parents' jobs have implications for their preparation for adulthood.

Coordinated Parallel Runway Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koczo, Steve

1996-01-01

The current air traffic environment in airport terminal areas experiences substantial delays when weather conditions deteriorate to Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). Expected future increases in air traffic will put additional pressures on the National Airspace System (NAS) and will further compound the high costs associated with airport delays. To address this problem, NASA has embarked on a program to address Terminal Area Productivity (TAP). The goals of the TAP program are to provide increased efficiencies in air traffic during the approach, landing, and surface operations in low-visibility conditions. The ultimate goal is to achieve efficiencies of terminal area flight operations commensurate with Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) at current or improved levels of safety.

An Exploration of the Factors Considered When Forming Expectations for Returning to Work following Sickness Absence Due to a Musculoskeletal Condition

PubMed Central

Young, Amanda E.; Choi, YoonSun; Besen, Elyssa

2015-01-01

Introduction Workers’ own expectations for returning to work following a period of sickness absence have been found to be one of the best predictors of future work status; however, there is a limited understanding of why people expect what they do. The current study was undertaken with the aim of determining what people take into consideration when forming their expectations for returning to work. Methods Thirty-four people (8 women, 26 men), who were off work due to a musculoskeletal condition, participated in one of 14 focus groups. Participants were aged 25 to 65 (M = 45, SD = 12.6), and all had been out of work for 3 months or less. Results All participants reported expecting to return to work, with the most common timeframe being approximately 30 days (Range = 1 day-12 months). When explaining what they thought about when forming their expectations, participants referenced numerous considerations. Much of what was spoken about could be compartmentalized to reflect features of themselves, their condition, or their broader environmental contexts. Participant’s subjective experience of these features influenced his or her expectations. Prominent themes included concerns about employability, a desire to get back to normal, no job to go back to, mixed emotions, re-injury concerns, the judgments of workplace stakeholders, being needed by their employer, waiting for input, until the money runs out, and working out what was in their best interest. Conclusions Indications are that many of the reported considerations are amenable to intervention, suggesting opportunities to assist workers in the process of returning to work. PMID:26580559

Aging prisoners' treatment selection: does prospect theory enhance understanding of end-of-life medical decisions?

PubMed

Phillips, Laura L; Allen, Rebecca S; Harris, Grant M; Presnell, Andrew H; Decoster, Jamie; Cavanaugh, Ronald

2011-10-01

With the rapid growth in the older inmate population and the economic impact of end-of-life treatments within the cash-strapped prison system, consideration should be given to inmate treatment preferences. We examined end-of-life treatment preferences and days of desired life for several health scenarios among male inmates incarcerated primarily for murder. Inmates over the age of 45 who passed a cognitive screening completed face-to-face interviews (N = 94; mean age = 57.7; SD = 10.68). We found a 3-way interaction indicating that the effect of parole expectation on desire for life-sustaining treatment varied by race/ethnicity and treatment. Minority inmates desired cardiopulmonary resuscitation or feeding tubes only if they believed that they would be paroled. The model predicting desire for palliative care was not significant. Future days of desired life were related to prospective health condition, fear of death, negative affect, and trust in prison health care. Caucasian inmates expressed a desire for more days of life out of prison, whereas minority inmates did not differ in days of desired life either in or out of prison. Minorities wanted more days of life than Caucasians but only if they believed that they would be paroled. End-of-life care for the burgeoning inmate population is costly, and active life-sustaining treatments may not be desired under certain conditions. Specifically, expectation of parole but not current functional ability interacts with future illness condition in explaining inmates' desire for active treatment or days of desired life in the future.

Preverbal infants identify emotional reactions that are incongruent with goal outcomes

PubMed Central

Skerry, Amy E.; Spelke, Elizabeth S.

2014-01-01

Identifying the goal of another agent’s action allows an observer to make inferences not only about the outcomes the agent will pursue in the future and the means to be deployed in a given context, but also about the emotional consequences of goal-related outcomes. While numerous studies have characterized the former abilities in infancy, expectations about emotions have gone relatively unexplored. Using a violation of expectation paradigm, we present infants with an agent who attains or fails to attain a demonstrated goal, and reacts with positive or negative affect. Across several studies, we find that infants’ attention to a given emotional display differs depending on whether that reaction is congruent with the preceding goal outcome. Specifically, infants look longer at a negative emotional display when it follows a completed goal compared to when it follows a failed goal. The present results suggest that infants’ goal representations support expectations not only about future actions but also about emotional reactions, and that infants in the first year of life can relate different emotional reactions to conditions that elicit them. PMID:24321623

Emerging adults' expectations for pornography use in the context of future committed romantic relationships: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Olmstead, Spencer B; Negash, Sesen; Pasley, Kay; Fincham, Frank D

2013-05-01

Using qualitative content analysis from the written comments of 404 primarily heterosexual college students, we examined (1) their expectations for pornography use while married or in a committed long-term relationship and (2) variations by gender. Four prominent groups emerged. A majority of men (70.8 %) and almost half of women (45.5 %) reported circumstances (alone or with their partners) wherein pornography use was acceptable in a relationship and several conditions for, and consequences associated with, such use also emerged. Another group (22.3 % men; 26.2 % women) viewed pornography use as unacceptable because of being in a committed relationship whereas a third group (5.4 % men; 12.9 % women) reported that pornography use was unacceptable in any context or circumstance. A final group emerged of a few women (10.4 %) who stated that a partner's use of pornography was acceptable, but they did not expect to use it personally. Implications for relationship education among emerging adults and future research on pornography use within the context of romantic relationships are discussed.

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.

PubMed

Davis, Lucas W; Gertler, Paul J

2015-05-12

As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

PubMed Central

Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J.

2015-01-01

As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change. PMID:25918391

Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-01-01

Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

New insights into the placebo and nocebo responses.

PubMed

Enck, Paul; Benedetti, Fabrizio; Schedlowski, Manfred

2008-07-31

In modern medicine, the placebo response or placebo effect has often been regarded as a nuisance in basic research and particularly in clinical research. The latest scientific evidence has demonstrated, however, that the placebo effect and the nocebo effect, the negative effects of placebo, stem from highly active processes in the brain that are mediated by psychological mechanisms such as expectation and conditioning. These processes have been described in some detail for many diseases and treatments, and we now know that they can represent both strength and vulnerability in the course of a disease as well as in the response to a therapy. However, recent research and current knowledge raise several issues that we shall address in this review. We will discuss current neurobiological models like expectation-induced activation of the brain reward circuitry, Pavlovian conditioning, and anxiety mechanisms of the nocebo response. We will further explore the nature of the placebo responses in clinical trials and address major questions for future research such as the relationship between expectations and conditioning in placebo effects, the existence of a consistent brain network for all placebo effects, the role of gender in placebo effects, and the impact of getting drug-like effects without drugs.

Highly Stretchable and Transparent Electromagnetic Interference Shielding Film Based on Silver Nanowire Percolation Network for Wearable Electronics Applications.

PubMed

Jung, Jinwook; Lee, Habeom; Ha, Inho; Cho, Hyunmin; Kim, Kyun Kyu; Kwon, Jinhyeong; Won, Phillip; Hong, Sukjoon; Ko, Seung Hwan

2017-12-27

Future electronics are expected to develop into wearable forms, and an adequate stretchability is required for the forthcoming wearable electronics considering various motions occurring in human body. Along with stretchability, transparency can increase both the functionality and esthetic features in future wearable electronics. In this study, we demonstrate, for the first time, a highly stretchable and transparent electromagnetic interference shielding layer for wearable electronic applications with silver nanowire percolation network on elastic poly(dimethylsiloxane) substrate. The proposed stretchable and transparent electromagnetic interference shielding layer shows a high electromagnetic wave shielding effectiveness even under a high tensile strain condition. It is expected for the silver nanowire percolation network-based electromagnetic interference shielding layer to be beyond the conventional electromagnetic interference shielding materials and to broaden its application range to various fields that require optical transparency or nonplanar surface environment, such as biological system, human skin, and wearable electronics.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Solid waste management complex site development plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greager, T.M.

1994-09-30

The main purpose of this Solid Waste Management Complex Site Development Plan is to optimize the location of future solid waste treatment and storage facilities and the infrastructure required to support them. An overall site plan is recommended. Further, a series of layouts are included that depict site conditions as facilities are constructed at the SWMC site. In this respect the report serves not only as the siting basis for future projects, but provides siting guidance for Project W-112, as well. The plan is intended to function as a template for expected growth of the site over the next 30more » years so that future facilities and infrastructure will be properly integrated.« less

Effects of fuel treatments on carbon-disturbance relationships in forests of the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Elizabeth Reinhardt; Lisa Holsinger

2010-01-01

Fuel treatments alter conditions in forested stands at the time of the treatment and subsequently. Fuel treatments reduce on-site carbon and also change the fire potential and expected outcome of future wildfires, including their carbon emissions. We simulated effects of fuel treatments on 140 stands representing seven major habitat type groups of the northern Rocky...

Sites for retrospective studies: opportunities for research in western Washington and Oregon

Treesearch

Ted B. Thomas; John F. Lehmkuhl; Martin G. Raphael; Dean S. DeBell

1993-01-01

Sites were identified on publicly managed and privately owned lands in western Oregon and Washington where research or demonstration of new forestry practices could be conducted by using a retrospective approach. One hundred and seventy-six stands were selected for this catalog to represent examples of the future condition that could be expected from new forestry...

The Medial Temporal Lobes are Critical for Reward-Based Decision Making under Conditions that Promote Episodic Future Thinking

PubMed Central

Palombo, Daniela J.; Keane, Margaret M.; Verfaellie, Mieke

2014-01-01

In the present study, we investigated the effect of medial temporal lobe (MTL) damage on human decision making in the context of reward-based intertemporal choice. During intertemporal choice, humans typically devalue (or discount) a future reward to account for its delayed arrival (e.g., preferring $30 now over $42 in 2 months), but this effect is attenuated when participants engage in episodic future thinking, i.e., project themselves into the future to imagine a specific event. We hypothesized that this attenuation would be selectively impaired in amnesic patients, who have deficits in episodic future thinking. Replicating previous work, in a standard intertemporal choice task, amnesic patients showed temporal discounting indices similar to healthy controls. Consistent with our hypothesis, while healthy controls demonstrated attenuated temporal discounting in a condition that required participants first to engage in episodic future thinking (e.g., to imagine spending $42 at a theatre in 2 months), amnesic patients failed to demonstrate this effect. Moreover, as expected, amnesic patients’ narratives were less episodically rich than those of controls. These findings extend the range of tasks that are shown to be MTL dependent to include not only memory-based decision-making tasks but also future-oriented ones. PMID:25284804

Effects of mild wintering conditions on body mass and corticosterone levels in a temperate reptile, the aspic viper (Vipera aspis).

PubMed

Brischoux, François; Dupoué, Andréaz; Lourdais, Olivier; Angelier, Frédéric

2016-02-01

Temperate ectotherms are expected to benefit from climate change (e.g., increased activity time), but the impacts of climate warming during the winter have mostly been overlooked. Milder winters are expected to decrease body condition upon emergence, and thus to affect crucial life-history traits, such as survival and reproduction. Mild winter temperature could also trigger a state of chronic physiological stress due to inadequate thermal conditions that preclude both dormancy and activity. We tested these hypotheses on a typical temperate ectothermic vertebrate, the aspic viper (Vipera aspis). We simulated different wintering conditions for three groups of aspic vipers (cold: ~6 °C, mild: ~14 °C and no wintering: ~24 °C) during a one month long period. We found that mild wintering conditions induced a marked decrease in body condition, and provoked an alteration of some hormonal mechanisms involved in emergence. Such effects are likely to bear ultimate consequences on reproduction, and thus population persistence. We emphasize that future studies should incorporate the critical, albeit neglected, winter season when assessing the potential impacts of global changes on ectotherms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Not by strength alone : children's conflict expectations follow the logic of the asymmetric war of attrition.

PubMed

Pietraszewski, David; Shaw, Alex

2015-03-01

The Asymmetric War of Attrition (AWA) model of animal conflict in evolutionary biology (Maynard Smith and Parker in Nature, 246, 15-18, 1976) suggests that an organism's decision to withdraw from a conflict is the result of adaptations designed to integrate the expected value of winning, discounted by the expected costs that would be incurred by continuing to compete, via sensitivity to proximate cues of how quickly each side can impose costs on the other (Resource Holding Potential), and how much each side will gain by winning. The current studies examine whether human conflict expectations follow the formalized logic of this model. Children aged 6-8 years were presented with third-party conflict vignettes and were then asked to predict the likely winner. Cues of ownership, hunger, size, strength, and alliance strength were systematically varied across conditions. Results demonstrate that children's expectations followed the logic of the AWA model, even in complex situations featuring multiple, competing cues, such that the actual relative costs and benefits that would accrue during such a conflict were reflected in children's expectations. Control conditions show that these modifications to conflict expectations could not have resulted from more general experimental artifacts or demand characteristics. To test the selectivity of these effects to conflict, expectations of search effort were also assessed. As predicted, they yielded a different pattern of results. These studies represent one of the first experimental tests of the AWA model in humans and suggest that future research on the psychology of ownership, conflict, and value may be aided by formalized models from evolutionary biology.

Plant-herbivore interactions along elevational gradient: Comparison of field and common garden data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rokaya, Maan Bahadur; Dostálek, Tomáš; Münzbergová, Zuzana

2016-11-01

In response to climate change, various organisms tend to migrate to higher elevations and latitudes. Unequal migration rates of plants and animals are expected to result in changes in the type and intensity of their interactions such as plant-herbivore interactions. In the present study, we studied the extent of herbivore damage in Salvia nubicola along an elevational gradient in Manang, central Nepal. A common garden experiment was also carried out by sowing seeds collected from different populations along the elevational gradient. As expected, the extent of herbivore damage in the field was significantly lower at higher elevations, and it increased with the population size and at sites without shrubs. In the common garden experiment, herbivore damage was higher in plants originating from lower elevations and from more open habitats. While higher herbivore pressure in the field at lower elevations may suggest that plants will be better protected against herbivores at lower elevations, the common garden study demonstrated the opposite. A possible explanation could be that plants from higher elevations have to adapt to extreme conditions, and lower palatability is a side effect of these adaptations. Thus, S. nubicola in the Himalayan region is likely to survive the expected higher herbivore pressure caused by an upward shift of herbivores under future climate change. Future studies should attempt to elucidate generality of such a conclusion by studying multiple species along similar gradients. Our results from comparison of the field and common garden study suggest that future experiments need to include comparisons in common environments to understand the expected response of plants to changes in herbivore pressure.

Living aloft: Human requirements for extended spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connors, M. M.; Harrison, A. A.; Akins, F. R.

1985-01-01

Human psychological and social adjustment to space is investigated. Studies and experiences bearing on human performance capability, psychological well being, and social organization, as they relate to space, were identified and assessed, and suggestions offered as to where further research could ease the Earth/space transition. Special emphasis was given to the variables of crew size, crew diversity, and mission duration, all of which can be expected to increase in future spaceflight. By providing a conceptual framework in which issues and related information can be integrated, the hope is to aid in discovering those conditions under which future space travelers can flourish.

Molecular engineering of industrial enzymes: recent advances and future prospects.

PubMed

Yang, Haiquan; Li, Jianghua; Shin, Hyun-Dong; Du, Guocheng; Liu, Long; Chen, Jian

2014-01-01

Many enzymes are efficiently produced by microbes. However, the use of natural enzymes as biocatalysts has limitations such as low catalytic efficiency, low activity, and low stability, especially under industrial conditions. Many protein engineering technologies have been developed to modify natural enzymes and eliminate these limitations. Commonly used protein engineering strategies include directed evolution, site-directed mutagenesis, truncation, and terminal fusion. This review summarizes recent advances in the molecular engineering of industrial enzymes and discusses future prospects in this field. We expect this review to increase interest in and advance the molecular engineering of industrial enzymes.

Future thinking improves prospective memory performance and plan enactment in older adults.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Rendell, Peter G; Bernhard, Anka; Henry, Julie D; Bailey, Phoebe E; Phillips, Louise H; Kliegel, Matthias

2015-01-01

Efficient intention formation might improve prospective memory by reducing the need for resource-demanding strategic processes during the delayed performance interval. The present study set out to test this assumption and provides the first empirical assessment of whether imagining a future action improves prospective memory performance equivalently at different stages of the adult lifespan. Thus, younger (n = 40) and older (n = 40) adults were asked to complete the Dresden Breakfast Task, which required them to prepare breakfast in accordance with a set of rules and time restrictions. All participants began by generating a plan for later enactment; however, after making this plan, half of the participants were required to imagine themselves completing the task in the future (future thinking condition), while the other half received standard instructions (control condition). As expected, overall younger adults outperformed older adults. Moreover, both older and younger adults benefited equally from future thinking instructions, as reflected in a higher proportion of prospective memory responses and more accurate plan execution. Thus, for both younger and older adults, imagining the specific visual-spatial context in which an intention will later be executed may serve as an easy-to-implement strategy that enhances prospective memory function in everyday life.

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

Pilot evaluation of a media literacy program for tobacco prevention targeting early adolescents shows mixed results.

PubMed

Kaestle, Christine E; Chen, Yvonnes; Estabrooks, Paul A; Zoellner, Jamie; Bigby, Brandon

2013-01-01

The purpose of this pilot study was to assess the impact of media literacy for tobacco prevention for youth delivered through a community site. A randomized pretest-posttest evaluation design with matched-contact treatment and control conditions. The pilot study was delivered through the YMCA in a lower-income suburban and rural area of Southwest Virginia, a region long tied, both economically and culturally, to the tobacco industry. Children ages 8 to 14 (76% white, 58% female) participated in the study (n = 38). The intervention was an antismoking media literacy program (five 1-hour lessons) compared with a matched-contact creative writing control program. General media literacy, three domains of tobacco-specific media literacy ("authors and audiences," "messages and meanings," and "representation and reality"), tobacco attitudes, and future expectations were assessed. Multiple regression modeling assessed the impact of the intervention, controlling for pretest measures, age, and sex. General media literacy and tobacco-specific "authors and audiences" media literacy improved significantly for treatment compared with control (p < .05); results for other tobacco-specific media literacy measures and for tobacco attitudes were not significant. Future expectations of smoking increased significantly for treatment participants ages 10 and younger (p < .05). Mixed results indicated that improvements in media literacy are accompanied by an increase in future expectations to smoke for younger children.

Aging Prisoners’ Treatment Selection: Does Prospect Theory Enhance Understanding of End-of-Life Medical Decisions?

PubMed Central

Phillips, Laura L.; Allen, Rebecca S.; Harris, Grant M.; Presnell, Andrew H.; DeCoster, Jamie; Cavanaugh, Ronald

2011-01-01

Purpose: With the rapid growth in the older inmate population and the economic impact of end-of-life treatments within the cash-strapped prison system, consideration should be given to inmate treatment preferences. We examined end-of-life treatment preferences and days of desired life for several health scenarios among male inmates incarcerated primarily for murder. Design and Methods: Inmates over the age of 45 who passed a cognitive screening completed face-to-face interviews (N = 94; mean age = 57.7; SD = 10.68). Results: We found a 3-way interaction indicating that the effect of parole expectation on desire for life-sustaining treatment varied by race/ethnicity and treatment. Minority inmates desired cardiopulmonary resuscitation or feeding tubes only if they believed that they would be paroled. The model predicting desire for palliative care was not significant. Future days of desired life were related to prospective health condition, fear of death, negative affect, and trust in prison health care. Caucasian inmates expressed a desire for more days of life out of prison, whereas minority inmates did not differ in days of desired life either in or out of prison. Minorities wanted more days of life than Caucasians but only if they believed that they would be paroled. Implications: End-of-life care for the burgeoning inmate population is costly, and active life-sustaining treatments may not be desired under certain conditions. Specifically, expectation of parole but not current functional ability interacts with future illness condition in explaining inmates’ desire for active treatment or days of desired life in the future. PMID:21593007

Multiple Weather Factors Affect Apparent Survival of European Passerine Birds

PubMed Central

Salewski, Volker; Hochachka, Wesley M.; Fiedler, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for phenotypic and microevolutionary adaptations. PMID:23593131

Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Massey, Neil; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Droughts and related water scarcity can have large impacts on societies and consist of interactions between a number of natural and human factors. Meteorological conditions are usually the first natural trigger of droughts, and climate change is expected to impact these and thereby the frequency and intensity of the events. However, extreme events such as droughts are, by definition, rare, and accurately quantifying the risk related to such events is therefore difficult. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying the risks associated with droughts in the UK under present and future conditions. To do so, a large number of drought events, from climate model simulations downscaled at 25km over Europe, are being fed into hydrological models of various complexity and used for the estimation of drought risk associated with human and natural systems, including impacts on the economy, industry, agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and socio-cultural aspects. Here, we present the hydro-meteorological drought event set that has been produced by weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model (RCM). Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future horizons (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally consistent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. The drought event set for use in impact studies is constructed by extracting sequences of dry conditions from these model runs, leading to several thousand drought events. In addition to describing methodological and validation aspects of the synthetic drought event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK, its meteorological drivers, and how it can be expected to change in the future. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Carbon Pools in a Temperate Heathland Resist Changes in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambus, P.; Reinsch, S.; Nielsen, P. L.; Michelsen, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Mikkelsen, T. N.

2014-12-01

The fate of recently plant assimilated carbon was followed into ecosystem carbon pools and fluxes in a temperate heathland after a 13CO2 pulse in the early growing season in a 6-year long multi-factorial climate change experiment. Eight days after the pulse, recently assimilated carbon was significantly higher in storage organs (rhizomes) of the grass Deschampsia flexuosa under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Experimental drought induced a pronounced utilization of recently assimilated carbon belowground (roots, microbes, dissolved organic carbon) potentially counterbalancing limited nutrient availability. The fate of recently assimilated carbon was not affected by moderate warming. The full factorial combination of elevated CO2, warming and drought simulating future climatic conditions as expected for Denmark in 2075 did not change short-term carbon turnover significantly compared to ambient conditions. Overall, climate factors interacted in an unexpected way resulting in strong resilience of the heathland in terms of short-term carbon turnover in a future climate.

Assessing future expectations and the two-dimensional model of affect in an Italian population.

PubMed

Corno, Giulia; Molinari, Guadalupe; Baños, Rosa Maria

2017-03-01

Future-directed thinking has been described as part of two underlying systems that integrate dimensions of affect, motivational systems, orientation to the future, and future expectations, which are initiated at the cognitive, affective, biological, behavioral, and motivational levels. The main aim of the present study is to test the two underlying frameworks model and explore future expectations in a general Italian-speaking population (N=345). Therefore, the second aim of the present paper is to confirm the factorial structure of the Subjective Probability Task (SPT; MacLeod et al., 1996), a questionnaire designed to assess specific positive and negative orientations towards the future. Results showed that the SPT has good psychometric properties and it is a reliable instrument to assess future-directed thinking. Moreover, our findings confirmed the role of future expectancies as cognitive correlates of depression and anxiety. Differently from previous studies (Clark and Watson, 1991; MacLeod et al., 1996), our results did not confirm that depression was characterized by low positive affect. We believe this paper contributes to the understanding of future expectancies and their relation with anxiety and depression, and will help to expand the availability of an instrument to assess future directed thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural Hazards and the Normative Significance of Expectations in Protecting Alpine Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortner, Florian; Pölzler, Thomas; Meyer, Lukas H.; Sass, Oliver

2017-04-01

Protecting alpine communities from natural hazard events is costly. As climate change has led and will increasingly lead to a higher frequency and intensity of such events, at some point in the future states may consider planned relocations of some of these communities. In this study we investigate the theoretical option of relocations with regard to three alpine areas in Austria that have experienced natural hazard events in the past: the Sölk valleys, the Johnsbach valley, and the St. Lorenzen/Schwarzenbach valleys. More specifically, we focus on residents' expectations about being protected from such events: (1) What do these expectations look like? (2) Are these expectations relevant in determining whether and how the option of relocations ought to be implemented; and if yes, in which sense? First, we report approx. 300 questionnaire surveys and 17 qualitative interviews. These surveys and interviews suggest that residents of the Sölk valleys, the Johnsbach valley and the St. Lorenzen/Schwarzenbach valleys widely share the following expectation, henceforth referred to as "E": "In the foreseeable future the state of Austria will provide us with a level of protection from natural hazards that allows us to continue to live in these valleys". Second, we investigate E's normative significance, i.e., whether and if yes, in which sense it should count in making decisions about relocations. Based on Meyer and Sanklecha (2011, 2014) we propose several general conditions for the normative significance of expectations. Then we argue that E fulfills these conditions to a significant extent. E is highly epistemically legitimate because, among others, residents have so far received a high level of state protection from natural hazards, even in the face of increasing costs; had permission to build their houses in the areas in which they built them, and have not been properly informed about the state's possible inability to provide sufficient protection in the future. E is somewhat morally legitimate because, among others, it was mostly formed on the basis of impartial considerations, is mostly compatible with residents' views about distributive justice, and has to some extent been generated by the state. The findings that residents in the Sölk valleys, the Johnsbach valley, and the St. Lorenzen/Schwarzenbach valleys share E and that E is normatively significant mean that the option of relocation may be more difficult to justify than previously thought; and that if the implementation of this option frustrates residents' legitimate expectations, they should be owed more compensation. In addition, we draw lessons for potential planned relocations of other alpine communities and point to important legal and political implications. References: Meyer, Lukas; Sanklecha, Pranay (2011): Individual Expectations and Climate Change. Analyse & Kritik 32 (2): 449-471. Meyer, Lukas; Sanklecha, Pranay (2014): How Legitimate Expectations Matter in Climate Justice. Politics, Philosophy & Economics 13 (3): 369-393.

Cognitive bias in back pain patients attending osteopathy: testing the enmeshment model in reference to future thinking.

PubMed

Read, Jessica; Pincus, Tamar

2004-12-01

Depressive symptoms are common in chronic pain. Previous research has found differences in information-processing biases in depressed pain patients and depressed people without pain. The schema enmeshment model of pain (SEMP) has been proposed to explain chronic pain patients' information-processing biases. Negative future thinking is common in depression but has not been explored in relation to chronic pain and information-processing models. The study aimed to test the SEMP with reference to future thinking. An information-processing paradigm compared endorsement and recall bias between depressed and non-depressed chronic low back pain patients and control participants. Twenty-five depressed and 35 non-depressed chronic low back pain patients and 25 control participants (student osteopaths) were recruited from an osteopathy practice. Participants were asked to endorse positive and negative ill-health, depression-related, and neutral (control) adjectives, encoded in reference to either current or future time-frame. Incidental recall of the adjectives was then tested. While the expected hypothesis of a recall bias by depressed pain patients towards ill-health stimuli in the current condition was confirmed, the recall bias was not present in the future condition. Additionally, patterns of endorsement and recall bias differed. Results extend understanding of future thinking in chronic pain within the context of the SEMP.

Expectations, Fears, and Strategies: Juvenile Offender Thoughts on a Future outside of Incarceration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clinkinbeard, Samantha S.; Zohra, Tusty

2012-01-01

The current article explores the possible selves, or future expectations, of 543 incarcerated juvenile offenders in four Western states in the United States. We argue that juveniles who are able to articulate future expectations and fears and generate concrete strategies for achieving their goals have higher levels of motivational capital (i.e.,…

The General Penrose Inequality: Lessons from Numerical Evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karkowski, J.; Malec, E.

2005-01-01

Formulation of the Penrose inequality becomes ambiguous when the past and future apparent horizons do cross. We test numerically several natural possibilities of stating the inequality in punctured and boosted single- and double-black holes, in a Dain--Friedrich class of initial data and in conformally flat spheroidal data. The Penrose inequality holds true in vacuum configurations for the outermost element amongst the set of disjoint future and past apparent horizons (as expected) and (unexpectedly) for each of the outermost past and future apparent horizons, whenever these two bifurcate from an outermost minimal surface, regardless of whether they intersect or remain disjoint. In systems with matter the conjecture breaks down only if matter does not obey the dominant energy condition.

Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-07-01

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

Nurses' experiences, expectations, and preferences for mind-body practices to reduce stress.

PubMed

Kemper, Kathi; Bulla, Sally; Krueger, Deborah; Ott, Mary Jane; McCool, Jane A; Gardiner, Paula

2011-04-11

Most research on the impact of mind-body training does not ask about participants' baseline experience, expectations, or preferences for training. To better plan participant-centered mind-body intervention trials for nurses to reduce occupational stress, such descriptive information would be valuable. We conducted an anonymous email survey between April and June, 2010 of North American nurses interested in mind-body training to reduce stress. The e-survey included: demographic characteristics, health conditions and stress levels; experiences with mind-body practices; expected health benefits; training preferences; and willingness to participate in future randomized controlled trials. Of the 342 respondents, 96% were women and 92% were Caucasian. Most (73%) reported one or more health conditions, notably anxiety (49%); back pain (41%); GI problems such as irritable bowel syndrome (34%); or depression (33%). Their median occupational stress level was 4 (0 = none; 5 = extreme stress). Nearly all (99%) reported already using one or more mind-body practices to reduce stress: intercessory prayer (86%), breath-focused meditation (49%), healing or therapeutic touch (39%), yoga/tai chi/qi gong (34%), or mindfulness-based meditation (18%). The greatest expected benefits were for greater spiritual well-being (56%); serenity, calm, or inner peace (54%); better mood (51%); more compassion (50%); or better sleep (42%). Most (65%) wanted additional training; convenience (74% essential or very important), was more important than the program's reputation (49%) or scientific evidence about effectiveness (32%) in program selection. Most (65%) were willing to participate in a randomized trial of mind-body training; among these, most were willing to collect salivary cortisol (60%), or serum biomarkers (53%) to assess the impact of training. Most nurses interested in mind-body training already engage in such practices. They have greater expectations about spiritual and emotional than physical benefits, but are willing to participate in studies and to collect biomarker data. Recruitment may depend more on convenience than a program's scientific basis or reputation. Knowledge of participants' baseline experiences, expectations, and preferences helps inform future training and research on mind-body approaches to reduce stress.

Nurses' experiences, expectations, and preferences for mind-body practices to reduce stress

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Most research on the impact of mind-body training does not ask about participants' baseline experience, expectations, or preferences for training. To better plan participant-centered mind-body intervention trials for nurses to reduce occupational stress, such descriptive information would be valuable. Methods We conducted an anonymous email survey between April and June, 2010 of North American nurses interested in mind-body training to reduce stress. The e-survey included: demographic characteristics, health conditions and stress levels; experiences with mind-body practices; expected health benefits; training preferences; and willingness to participate in future randomized controlled trials. Results Of the 342 respondents, 96% were women and 92% were Caucasian. Most (73%) reported one or more health conditions, notably anxiety (49%); back pain (41%); GI problems such as irritable bowel syndrome (34%); or depression (33%). Their median occupational stress level was 4 (0 = none; 5 = extreme stress). Nearly all (99%) reported already using one or more mind-body practices to reduce stress: intercessory prayer (86%), breath-focused meditation (49%), healing or therapeutic touch (39%), yoga/tai chi/qi gong (34%), or mindfulness-based meditation (18%). The greatest expected benefits were for greater spiritual well-being (56%); serenity, calm, or inner peace (54%); better mood (51%); more compassion (50%); or better sleep (42%). Most (65%) wanted additional training; convenience (74% essential or very important), was more important than the program's reputation (49%) or scientific evidence about effectiveness (32%) in program selection. Most (65%) were willing to participate in a randomized trial of mind-body training; among these, most were willing to collect salivary cortisol (60%), or serum biomarkers (53%) to assess the impact of training. Conclusions Most nurses interested in mind-body training already engage in such practices. They have greater expectations about spiritual and emotional than physical benefits, but are willing to participate in studies and to collect biomarker data. Recruitment may depend more on convenience than a program's scientific basis or reputation. Knowledge of participants' baseline experiences, expectations, and preferences helps inform future training and research on mind-body approaches to reduce stress. PMID:21481259

Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

2017-10-01

The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

Adapting land management to emergence of novel site conditions on the continental lowlands of SE Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel.; Gálos, Borbala; Gribovszki, Zoltan; Lakatos, Ferenc; Borovics, Attila; Csóka, György; Führer, Ernő; Illés, Gábor; Rasztovits, Ervin; Somogyi, Zoltán; Bartholy, Judit

2017-04-01

The rapid progress of site potential change, caused by the shift of climate zones is a serious problem of lowland management in Southeast Europe. In forestry, the resilience potential of main, climate-dependent tree species (e.g. spruce, beech, sessile oak) and ecosystems is limited at their lower (xeric) limits of distribution. A conventional mitigation measure for adaptive forest management is the return to nature-close management. Severe drought- and biotic impacts in forests indicate however the urgency of fundamental changes in forest policy. To provide assistance in selecting climate-tolerant provenances, species and adaptive technologies for future site conditions is therefore critical. A simplified Decision Support System has been developed for Hungary, keeping conventional elements of site potential assessment. Projections are specified for discrete site types. Processing forest inventory, landcover and geodata, the System provides GIS-supported site information and projections for individual forest compartments, options for tree species better tolerating future climate scenarios as well as their expected yield and risks. Data respectively projections are available for recent and current conditions, and for future reference periods until 2100. Also non-forest site conditions in the novel grassland (steppe) climate zone appear in projections. Experiences for proper management on these sites are however scarce.

Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Emiliania huxleyi increases calcification but not expression of calcification-related genes in long-term exposure to elevated temperature and pCO2.

PubMed

Benner, Ina; Diner, Rachel E; Lefebvre, Stephane C; Li, Dian; Komada, Tomoko; Carpenter, Edward J; Stillman, Jonathon H

2013-01-01

Increased atmospheric pCO2 is expected to render future oceans warmer and more acidic than they are at present. Calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores that fix and export carbon into the deep sea provide feedbacks to increasing atmospheric pCO2. Acclimation experiments suggest negative effects of warming and acidification on coccolithophore calcification, but the ability of these organisms to adapt to future environmental conditions is not well understood. Here, we tested the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature on the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi over more than 700 generations. Cells increased inorganic carbon content and calcification rate under warm and acidified conditions compared with ambient conditions, whereas organic carbon content and primary production did not show any change. In contrast to findings from short-term experiments, our results suggest that long-term acclimation or adaptation could change, or even reverse, negative calcification responses in E. huxleyi and its feedback to the global carbon cycle. Genome-wide profiles of gene expression using RNA-seq revealed that genes thought to be essential for calcification are not those that are most strongly differentially expressed under long-term exposure to future ocean conditions. Rather, differentially expressed genes observed here represent new targets to study responses to ocean acidification and warming.

Characterizing Future El Niño Impacts to the Lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, N. I.; Miller, W. P.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.

2015-12-01

Past El Niño events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the 1982-1983 event, resulted in one of the basin's wettest years on record. Looking at past events and the current forecasts, which indicate Pacific Ocean conditions could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter, it is no wonder that many water management agencies and their customers are expecting a relief in the southwestern United States (US) drought intensity as the probability of a strong El Niño becomes more significant. Despite the conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a strong El Niño is not a guarantee for wet conditions in the Colorado River basin - as can be seen from the 2002 event in which basin conditions were one of the driest on record. There is a great need to understand the range of possible conditions that could be observed under an El Niño event to better inform southwestern US water management agencies so that they may make well-guided decisions regarding their most valuable resource - the Colorado River. This study builds upon past research based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climatology and hydrology projections and the analysis performed with singular variable decomposition (SVD) to identify climate models with high correlation between historical climate/hydrology in the CRB and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Past research methods were able to identify climate models which performed well using the SVD methodology. This current project seeks to analyze the well-performing climate models and identify future El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the resultant precipitation and temperature impacts in the lower CRB. This analysis will provide an objective, ensemble based outlook for potential climate change impacts under El Niño events.The results of the study can potentially assist lower CRB water management agencies in characterizing the range of future El Niño impacts, under climate change conditions. It is expected that this information could be beneficial in understanding the range of potential El Niño impacts and their effect on drought in the southwestern US.

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of elevated nutrients and CO2 emission scenarios on three coral reef macroalgae.

PubMed

Bender-Champ, Dorothea; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

2017-05-01

Coral reef macroalgae are expected to thrive in the future under conditions that are deleterious to the health of reef-building corals. Here we examined how macroalgae would be affected by exposure to future CO 2 emission scenarios (pCO 2 and temperature), enriched nutrients and combinations of both. The species tested, Laurencia intricata (Rhodophyta), Turbinaria ornata and Chnoospora implexa (both Phaeophyceae), have active carbon-concentrating mechanisms but responded differently to the treatments. L. intricata showed high mortality under nutrient enriched RCP4.5 ("reduced" CO 2 emission) and RCP8.5 ("business-as-usual" CO 2 emission) and grew best under pre-industrial (PI) conditions, where it could take up carbon using external carbonic anhydrase combined, potentially, with proton extrusion. T. ornata's growth rate showed a trend for reduction under RCP8.5 but was unaffected by nutrient enrichment. In C. implexa, highest growth was observed under PI conditions, but highest net photosynthesis occurred under RCP8.5, suggesting that under RCP8.5, carbon is stored and respired at greater rates while it is directed to growth under PI conditions. None of the species showed growth enhancement under future scenarios, nutrient enrichment or combinations of both. This leads to the conclusion that under such conditions these species are unlikely to pose an increasing threat to coral reefs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maternal expectations and postpartum emotional adjustment in first-time mothers: results of a questionnaire survey.

PubMed

Henshaw, Erin J; Fried, Rachel; Teeters, Jenni Beth; Siskind, Emily E

2014-09-01

Several predictors of postpartum mood have been identified in the literature, but the role of maternal expectations in postpartum mental health remains unclear. The aim of this study was to identify whether maternal expectations during the postpartum hospital stay predict adjustment and depressive symptoms at 6 weeks postpartum. The sample included 233 first-time mothers recruited from the postpartum unit of a Midwestern hospital. Participants completed measures of maternal expectations and depressive symptoms (EPDS) at Time 1 (2 d postpartum) and completed EPDS and an Emotional Adjustment Scale (BaM-13) at Time 2 (6 weeks postpartum). A conditional relationship between the expectation that an infant's behavior will reflect maternal skill and Time 2 outcomes (BaM-13 and EPDS) was found, such that endorsing this belief predicted increased depression and poorer adjustment in those with higher (but not lower) Time 1 EPDS scores. Time 2 BaM-13 scores were also negatively predicted by expectations of self-sacrifice and positively predicted by expectations that parenthood would be naturally fulfilling. The expectations that new mothers hold about parenting soon after delivery are predictive of emotional adjustment in the early postpartum period, suggesting a role for discussion of expectations in future preventive strategies.

Paradoxical effects of alcohol information on alcohol outcome expectancies.

PubMed

Krank, Marvin D; Ames, Susan L; Grenard, Jerry L; Schoenfeld, Tara; Stacy, Alan W

2010-07-01

Cognitive associations with alcohol predict both current and future use in youth and young adults. Much cognitive and social cognitive research suggests that exposure to information may have unconscious influences on thinking and behavior. The present study assessed the impact of information statements on the accessibility of alcohol outcome expectancies. The 2 studies reported here investigated the effects of exposure to alcohol statements typical of informational approaches to prevention on the accessibility of alcohol outcome expectancies. High school and university students were presented with information statements about the effects of alcohol and other commercial products. The alcohol statements were taken from expectancy questionnaires. Some of these statements were presented as facts and others as myths. The retention of detailed information about these statements was manipulated by (i) divided attention versus focused attention or (ii) immediate versus delayed testing. Accessibility of personal alcohol outcome expectancies was subsequently measured using an open-ended question about the expected effects of alcohol. Participants reported more alcohol outcomes seen during the information task as personal expectations about the effects of alcohol use than similar unseen items. Paradoxically, myth statements were also more likely to be reported as expectancies than unseen items in all conditions. Additionally, myth statements were generated less often than fact statements only under the condition of immediate testing with strong content processing instructions. These observations are consistent with findings from cognitive research where familiarity in the absence of explicit memory can have an unconscious influence on performance. In particular, the exposure to these items in an informational format increases accessibility of the seen items even when the participants were told that they were myths. The findings have implications for the development of effective prevention materials.

Paradoxical Effects of Alcohol Information on Alcohol Outcome Expectancies

PubMed Central

Krank, Marvin D.; Ames, Susan L.; Grenard, Jerry L.; Schoenfeld, Tara; Stacy, Alan W.

2014-01-01

Background Cognitive associations with alcohol predict both current and future use in youth and young adults. Much cognitive and social cognitive research suggests that exposure to information may have unconscious influences on thinking and behavior. The present study assessed the impact of information statements on the accessibility of alcohol outcome expectancies. Methods The 2 studies reported here investigated the effects of exposure to alcohol statements typical of informational approaches to prevention on the accessibility of alcohol outcome expectancies. High school and university students were presented with information statements about the effects of alcohol and other commercial products. The alcohol statements were taken from expectancy questionnaires. Some of these statements were presented as facts and others as myths. The retention of detailed information about these statements was manipulated by (i) divided attention versus focused attention or (ii) immediate versus delayed testing. Accessibility of personal alcohol outcome expectancies was subsequently measured using an open-ended question about the expected effects of alcohol. Results Participants reported more alcohol outcomes seen during the information task as personal expectations about the effects of alcohol use than similar unseen items. Paradoxically, myth statements were also more likely to be reported as expectancies than unseen items in all conditions. Additionally, myth statements were generated less often than fact statements only under the condition of immediate testing with strong content processing instructions. Conclusions These observations are consistent with findings from cognitive research where familiarity in the absence of explicit memory can have an unconscious influence on performance. In particular, the exposure to these items in an informational format increases accessibility of the seen items even when the participants were told that they were myths. The findings have implications for the development of effective prevention materials. PMID:20477773

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. PMID:21304515

Ionic Mechanisms of Carbon Formation in Flames.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-05-01

EFFECT OF MOLECULAR STRUCTURE ON INCIPIENT SOOT FORMATION, H.F. Calcote and D.M. Manos APPENDIX E: CORRELATION OF SOOT FORMATION IN TURBOJET ENGINES...future use by the Air Force of synfuels derived from coal, tar sands, and shale oil . These fuels are expected to have higher molecular weights, more...emissions and flame radiation from turbojet engines and larger scale combustors simulating practical engine conditions. b. Interpret and correlate the

Factors affecting the value of a wilderness visit: a contingent valuation study of Caribou-Speckled Mountain Wilderness users

Treesearch

Jeffery A. Michael; Stephen Reiling; Hsiang-Tai Cheng

1995-01-01

A dichotomous choice contingent valuation model is estimated using an on-site survey of Caribou-Speckled Mountain Wilderness visitors. The results indicate that pre-trip expectations of various trip attributes such as congestion have a greater impact on a trip?s value than the actual conditions of the visit. This research also shows that future economic studies of an...

Sacramento Metropolitan Area, California

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-02-01

restriction would apply to virtually all of West Sacramento. Future conditions in the bypass areas are expected to remain essentially the same. During...frequency, the stage-frequency curve in the study area essentially becomes flat because of the large storage volume behind upstream levee breaches. This curve...and 400-year flood plains are also essentially the same (15 to 16 feet) because of the following: 1) the flood volume for each event is sufficient to

Separating conditional and unconditional cooperation in a sequential Prisoner’s Dilemma game

PubMed Central

Mieth, Laura; Buchner, Axel

2017-01-01

Most theories of social exchange distinguish between two different types of cooperation, depending on whether or not cooperation occurs conditional upon the partner’s previous behaviors. Here, we used a multinomial processing tree model to distinguish between positive and negative reciprocity and cooperation bias in a sequential Prisoner’s Dilemma game. In Experiments 1 and 2, the facial expressions of the partners were varied to manipulate cooperation bias. In Experiment 3, an extinction instruction was used to manipulate reciprocity. The results confirm that people show a stronger cooperation bias when interacting with smiling compared to angry-looking partners, supporting the notion that a smiling facial expression in comparison to an angry facial expression helps to construe a situation as cooperative rather than competitive. Reciprocity was enhanced for appearance-incongruent behaviors, but only when participants were encouraged to form expectations about the partners’ future behaviors. Negative reciprocity was not stronger than positive reciprocity, regardless of whether expectations were manipulated or not. Experiment 3 suggests that people are able to ignore previous episodes of cheating as well as previous episodes of cooperation if these turn out to be irrelevant for predicting a partner’s future behavior. The results provide important insights into the mechanisms of social cooperation. PMID:29121671

Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions

PubMed Central

Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

2013-01-01

Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%–17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other tropical mountains. PMID:23667651

Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

2010-05-01

To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a useful Climate Twins regions search. The Climate Twins tool works actually comparing future climate conditions of a certain source area in the Greater Alpine Region with current climate conditions of entire Europe and the neighbouring southern as well south-eastern areas as target regions. A next version will integrate web crawling features for searching information about climate-related local adaptations observed today in the target region which may turn out as appropriate solution for the source region under future climate conditions. The contribution will present the current tool functionally and will discuss which indicator sets, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges work best to deliver scientifically sound climate comparisons and distinct mapping results.

Professional identity, career choices, and working conditions of future and young dentists in Germany - study design and methods of a nationwide comprehensive survey.

PubMed

Kettler, Nele; Frenzel Baudisch, Nicolas; Micheelis, Wolfgang; Klingenberger, David; Jordan, A Rainer

2017-10-18

Little is known regarding young and future dentists' career choices, professional identity, and working conditions in Germany. While the dental healthcare environment and demands in treatment are changing, it remains unclear what job perceptions young dentists have developed at the beginning of their work life and if and how these perceptions change during the subsequent years. The aim of this study was to survey future and young dentists regarding their professional identity, planned career paths, and working conditions and strains to understand career decisions and choices and enable policy makers to include future dentists' views and expectations in their decisions. This study is a longitudinal nationwide survey over a time span of 4 years of dental students and young dentists in Germany and is comprised of three waves. The first wave focuses on dental students in their final year before the state examination and is composed of a qualitative pre-study in the form of focus groups and a quantitative main survey in the form of a questionnaire. The end points were established to analyse (1) the professional identity of the young future dentists; (2) their career paths, preparation for a career, and basic career conditions; and (3) perceived conditions and strains. The aim of the overall survey was to depict the development of these three aspects during the first years of work life. All of the questions were evaluated with a descriptive univariate analysis. The analysed subgroups were grouped according to gender, target working condition (employed/self-employed), and primary socialisation (parents dentists/parents not dentists). To our knowledge, this is the only study which focuses on career choices, professional identity, and working conditions of future and young dentists in Germany. The longitudinal observation provides information that is essential for professional and purposive dental health care planning, and to meet the oral health demands and needs of the German population appropriately over the long term. German Health Services Research Data Bank VfD_Y-Dent_14_003759 .

AGING & HEALTH Expectations About Future Use Of Long-Term Services And Supports Vary By CurrentLiving Arrangement

PubMed Central

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Shippee, Tetyana

2014-01-01

Most Americans know little about options for long-term services and supports and underestimate their likely future needs for such assistance. Using data from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey, we examined expectations about future use of long-term services and supports among adults ages 40–65 and how these expectations varied by current living arrangement. We found differences by living arrangement in expectations about both future need for long-term services and supports and who would provide such care if needed. Respondents living with minor children were the least likely to expect to need long-term services and supports and to require paid care if the need arose. In contrast, respondents living alone were the most likely to expect that it was “very likely” that they would need long-term services and supports and to rely on paid care. Overall, we found a disconnect between expectations of use and likely future reality: 60 percent of respondents believed that they were unlikely to need long-term services and supports in the future, whereas the evidence suggests that nearly 70 percent of older adults will need them at some point. These findings both underscore the need for programs that encourage people to plan for long-term services and supports and indicate that information about living arrangements can be useful in developing and targeting such programs. PMID:25561642

[Global environment and health--with emphasis on world nutritional status].

PubMed

Suzuki, T

1993-12-01

Forthcoming global environmental changes threaten to endanger human survival through direct and indirect influences. In this paper, the contemporary world food supply situation and resultant nutritional status was first reviewed on by country and region. When compared with the nutritional energy requirement, countries with an inadequate food supply were concentrated in the developing world, in particular in some parts of Africa. The life expectancy at birth is clearly shorter in such countries, and peoples of African countries with an inadequate food supply have shorter life expectancies than other countries with a similar inadequacy. Global warning is likely to decrease food production in some parts of the world. According to the present estimation using various methods, a future crisis of food production may occur in African countries which are at present most vulnerable to food shortages, as well as in countries which are presently food exporters. Thus, a future crisis of human health conditions caused by the imbalance of food production and trade may be least avoidable in the region of present predicament.

The Occupational Expectations of Undergraduate Students in the Conservatory Piano Majors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çevik Kiliç, Deniz Beste; Baltacilar Bayoglu, Talia Özlem; Güner Canbey, Ebru

2018-01-01

An expectation is the belief that a certain action will lead to a given outcome. It is noteworthy to reveal individuals' expectations from their future occupations. The quality and success of education are undoubtedly related to meeting their occupational expectations in the future. In this regard, it is of critical importance to investigate the…

A blueprint for using climate change predictions in an eco-hydrological study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2009-12-01

There is a growing interest to extend climate change predictions to smaller, catchment-size scales and identify their implications on hydrological and ecological processes. Small scale processes are, in fact, expected to mediate climate changes, producing local effects and feedbacks that can interact with the principal consequences of the change. This is particularly applicable, when a complex interaction, such as the inter-relationship between the hydrological cycle and vegetation dynamics, is considered. This study presents a blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the catchment scale. Climate conditions, present or future, are imposed through input hydrometeorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models. These variables are simulated with an hourly weather generator as an outcome of a stochastic downscaling technique. The generator is parameterized to reproduce the climate of southwestern Arizona for present (1961-2000) and future (2081-2100) conditions. The methodology provides the capability to generate ensemble realizations for the future that take into account the heterogeneous nature of climate predictions from different models. The generated time series of meteorological variables for the two scenarios corresponding to the current and mean expected future serve as input to a coupled hydrological and vegetation dynamics model, “Tethys-Chloris”. The hydrological model reproduces essential components of the land-surface hydrological cycle, solving the mass and energy budget equations. The vegetation model parsimoniously parameterizes essential plant life-cycle processes, including photosynthesis, phenology, carbon allocation, and tissue turnover. The results for the two mean scenarios are compared and discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity The need to account for uncertainties in projections of future climate is discussed and a methodology for propagating these uncertainties into the probability density functions of changes in eco-hydrological variables is presented.

Targeting inflammation in the treatment of type 2 diabetes: time to start.

PubMed

Donath, Marc Y

2014-06-01

The role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes and associated complications is now well established. Several conditions that are driven by inflammatory processes are also associated with diabetes, including rheumatoid arthritis, gout, psoriasis and Crohn's disease, and various anti-inflammatory drugs have been approved or are in late stages of development for the treatment of these conditions. This review discusses the rationale for the use of some of these anti-inflammatory treatments in patients with diabetes and what we could expect from their use. Future immunomodulatory treatments may not target a specific disease, but could instead act on a dysfunctional pathway that causes several conditions associated with the metabolic syndrome.

Brain Mechanisms Supporting Violated Expectations of Pain

PubMed Central

Zeidan, Fadel; Lobanov, Oleg V.; Kraft, Robert A.; Coghill, Robert C.

2015-01-01

The subjective experience of pain is influenced by interactions between prior experiences, future predictions and incoming afferent information. Expectations of high pain can exacerbate pain while expectations of low pain during a consistently noxious stimulus can produce significant reductions in pain. However, the brain mechanisms associated with processing mismatches between expected and experienced pain are poorly understood, but are important for imparting salience to a sensory event in order to override erroneous top-down expectancy-mediated information. The present investigation examined pain-related brain activation when expectations of pain were abruptly violated. After conditioning participants to cues predicting low or high pain, ten incorrectly cued stimuli were administered across 56 stimulus trials to determine if expectations would be less influential on pain when there is a high discordance between pre-stimulus cues and corresponding thermal stimulation. Incorrectly cued stimuli produced pain ratings and pain-related brain activation consistent with placebo analgesia, nocebo hyperalgesia, and violated expectations. Violated expectations of pain were associated with activation in distinct regions of the inferior parietal lobe, including the supramarginal and angular gyrus, and intraparietal sulcus, the superior parietal lobe, cerebellum and occipital lobe. Thus, violated expectations of pain engage mechanisms supporting salience-driven sensory discrimination, working memory, and associative learning processes. By overriding the influence of expectations on pain, these brain mechanisms are likely engaged in clinical situations where patients’ unrealistic expectations for pain relief diminish the efficacy of pain treatments. Accordingly, these findings underscore the importance of maintaining realistic expectations to augment the effectiveness of pain management. PMID:26083664

WW Physics at Future e{sup +}e{sup -} Linear Colliders

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barklow, Timothy L

Measurements of triple gauge boson couplings and strong electroweak symmetry breaking effects at future e{sup +}e{sup -} linear colliders are reviewed. The results expected from a future e{sup +}e{sup -} linear collider are compared with LHC expectations.

Teacher literacy expectations for kindergarten children with cerebral palsy in special education.

PubMed

Peeters, Marieke; Verhoeven, Ludo; de Moor, Jan

2009-09-01

Teacher expectations are important for the literacy development of children. The goal of this study was to investigate to what extent teacher expectations for future literacy success at the end of elementary school differed for children with cerebral palsy (CP) as compared with peers without disabilities in kindergarten. In addition, we investigated to what extent teacher literacy expectations of children with CP were related to additional impairments such as speech, intellectual and physical impairments, and to the current level of emergent literacy skills. Forty-nine teachers of children with CP and 71 teachers of non-disabled children responded to the questionnaire. The results showed that teacher expectations for future reading and writing success of children with CP were lower (all P values are <0.001) but also of a different nature, as eight teachers had no idea what to expect for the future reading development, and 12 teachers did not know what to expect for the future writing development of the child with CP. Multiple regression analysis showed that teacher reading expectations could best be predicted by both intelligence and emergent literacy skills (P<0.001), whereas teacher writing skills could best be predicted by intelligence (P<0.001).

Determining medical staffing requirements for humanitarian assistance missions.

PubMed

Negus, Tracy L; Brown, Carrie J; Konoske, Paula

2010-01-01

The primary mission of hospital ships is to provide acute medical and surgical services to U.S. forces during military operations. Hospital ships also provide a hospital asset in support of disaster relief and humanitarian assistance (HA) operations. HA missions afford medical care to populations with vastly different sets of medical conditions from combat casualty care, which affects staffing requirements. Information from a variety of sources was reviewed to better understand hospital ship HA missions. Factors such as time on-site and location shape the mission and underlying goals. Patient encounter data from previous HA missions were used to determine expected patient conditions encountered in various HA operations. These data points were used to project the medical staffing required for future missions. Further data collection, along with goal setting, must be performed to accomplish successful future HA missions. Refining staffing requirements allows deployments to accomplish needed HA and effectively reach underserved areas.

Is there a relationship between curvature and inductance in the Josephson junction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrowolski, T.; Jarmoliński, A.

2018-03-01

A Josephson junction is a device made of two superconducting electrodes separated by a very thin layer of isolator or normal metal. This relatively simple device has found a variety of technical applications in the form of Superconducting Quantum Interference Devices (SQUIDs) and Single Electron Transistors (SETs). One can expect that in the near future the Josephson junction will find applications in digital electronics technology RSFQ (Rapid Single Flux Quantum) and in the more distant future in construction of quantum computers. Here we concentrate on the relation of the curvature of the Josephson junction with its inductance. We apply a simple Capacitively Shunted Junction (CSJ) model in order to find condition which guarantees consistency of this model with prediction based on the Maxwell and London equations with Landau-Ginzburg current of Cooper pairs. This condition can find direct experimental verification.

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood.

What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; Pearce, Tristan

2010-01-01

This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

An Investigation of Senior Vocational School Students' Perceptions of the Future through Their Drawings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yukay Yuksel, Muge; Aksak, Meryem; Arican, Tugce; Bakan, Muhsin

2016-01-01

Problem Statement: Expectations/perceptions of the future are important concepts at every stage of life. However, these concepts become more important in adolescence, during which critical decisions about the future are made. Adolescents' expectations/perceptions of the future are vital from the perspectives of the families they live with, their…

Future Time Perspective in Occupational Teams: Do Older Workers Prefer More Familiar Teams?

PubMed Central

Gärtner, Laura U. A.; Hertel, Guido

2017-01-01

Working in teams is quite popular across different industries and cultures. While some of these teams exist for longer time periods, other teams collaborate only for short periods and members switch into new teams after goals are accomplished. However, workers’ preferences for joining a new team might vary in different ways. Based on Carstensen’s socioemotional selectivity theory, we predict that emotionally meaningful teams are prioritized when occupational future time perspective (OFTP) is perceived as limited. Building and expanding on studies outside of the work context, we expected that older as compared to younger workers prefer more familiar teams, and that this effect is mediated by workers’ OFTP. Moreover, we assumed that experimentally manipulated OFTP can change such team preferences. The hypotheses were tested in an online scenario study using three experimental conditions (within-person design). Four hundred and fifty-four workers (57% female, age M = 45.98, SD = 11.46) were asked to choose between a familiar and a new team in three consecutive trials: under an unspecified OFTP (baseline), under an expanded OFTP (amendment of retirement age), and under a restricted OFTP (insolvency of the current company). Whereas the baseline condition was always first, the order of the second and third conditions was randomized among participants. In the baseline condition, results showed the expected mediation effect of workers’ OFTP on the relation between workers’ age and preference for a familiar over a new team. Higher age was associated with more limited OFTP, which in turn was associated with higher preference for a familiar over a new team. Moreover, experimentally restricting OFTP increased preference for a familiar team over a new team regardless of workers’ age, providing further evidence for the assumed causal processes and showing interesting avenues for practical interventions in occupational teams. PMID:29018376

Future Time Perspective in Occupational Teams: Do Older Workers Prefer More Familiar Teams?

PubMed

Gärtner, Laura U A; Hertel, Guido

2017-01-01

Working in teams is quite popular across different industries and cultures. While some of these teams exist for longer time periods, other teams collaborate only for short periods and members switch into new teams after goals are accomplished. However, workers' preferences for joining a new team might vary in different ways. Based on Carstensen's socioemotional selectivity theory, we predict that emotionally meaningful teams are prioritized when occupational future time perspective (OFTP) is perceived as limited. Building and expanding on studies outside of the work context, we expected that older as compared to younger workers prefer more familiar teams, and that this effect is mediated by workers' OFTP. Moreover, we assumed that experimentally manipulated OFTP can change such team preferences. The hypotheses were tested in an online scenario study using three experimental conditions (within-person design). Four hundred and fifty-four workers (57% female, age M = 45.98, SD = 11.46) were asked to choose between a familiar and a new team in three consecutive trials: under an unspecified OFTP (baseline), under an expanded OFTP (amendment of retirement age), and under a restricted OFTP (insolvency of the current company). Whereas the baseline condition was always first, the order of the second and third conditions was randomized among participants. In the baseline condition, results showed the expected mediation effect of workers' OFTP on the relation between workers' age and preference for a familiar over a new team. Higher age was associated with more limited OFTP, which in turn was associated with higher preference for a familiar over a new team. Moreover, experimentally restricting OFTP increased preference for a familiar team over a new team regardless of workers' age, providing further evidence for the assumed causal processes and showing interesting avenues for practical interventions in occupational teams.

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Ault, Toby R.; Smerdon, Jason E.

2015-01-01

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for benchmarking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium. PMID:26601131

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively. PMID:29664961

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains.

PubMed

Cook, Benjamin I; Ault, Toby R; Smerdon, Jason E

2015-02-01

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for benchmarking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100-1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.

PubMed

Thapa, Sunil; Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Emiliania huxleyi increases calcification but not expression of calcification-related genes in long-term exposure to elevated temperature and pCO2

PubMed Central

Benner, Ina; Diner, Rachel E.; Lefebvre, Stephane C.; Li, Dian; Komada, Tomoko; Carpenter, Edward J.; Stillman, Jonathon H.

2013-01-01

Increased atmospheric pCO2 is expected to render future oceans warmer and more acidic than they are at present. Calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores that fix and export carbon into the deep sea provide feedbacks to increasing atmospheric pCO2. Acclimation experiments suggest negative effects of warming and acidification on coccolithophore calcification, but the ability of these organisms to adapt to future environmental conditions is not well understood. Here, we tested the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature on the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi over more than 700 generations. Cells increased inorganic carbon content and calcification rate under warm and acidified conditions compared with ambient conditions, whereas organic carbon content and primary production did not show any change. In contrast to findings from short-term experiments, our results suggest that long-term acclimation or adaptation could change, or even reverse, negative calcification responses in E. huxleyi and its feedback to the global carbon cycle. Genome-wide profiles of gene expression using RNA-seq revealed that genes thought to be essential for calcification are not those that are most strongly differentially expressed under long-term exposure to future ocean conditions. Rather, differentially expressed genes observed here represent new targets to study responses to ocean acidification and warming. PMID:23980248

Effects of a brief media intervention on expectations, attitudes, and intentions of mental health help seeking.

PubMed

Demyan, Amy L; Anderson, Timothy

2012-04-01

This study examined the effects of a mass-media video intervention on expectations, attitudes, and intentions to seek help from professional mental health care services. A public service announcement-style, mass-media video intervention was developed, with prior empirical research on help-seeking behaviors organized according to the theory of reasoned action/planned behavior. In total, 228 participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 conditions: (a) the media-exposed intervention group, who watched programming in which the media intervention was inserted, and (b) the control group, who watched the same programming without the media intervention. The media intervention was not influential on expectation and belief-based barrier variables. However, the media intervention was effective at increasing positive attitudes toward help seeking. Findings regarding the intervention's ability to increase help-seeking intentions for interpersonal problems were complex. Implications of these findings for future research are discussed.

Carbonate chemistry of an in-situ free-ocean CO2 enrichment experiment (antFOCE) in comparison to short term variation in Antarctic coastal waters.

PubMed

Stark, J S; Roden, N P; Johnstone, G J; Milnes, M; Black, J G; Whiteside, S; Kirkwood, W; Newbery, K; Stark, S; van Ooijen, E; Tilbrook, B; Peltzer, E T; Berry, K; Roberts, D

2018-02-12

Free-ocean CO 2 enrichment (FOCE) experiments have been deployed in marine ecosystems to manipulate carbonate system conditions to those predicted in future oceans. We investigated whether the pH/carbonate chemistry of extremely cold polar waters can be manipulated in an ecologically relevant way, to represent conditions under future atmospheric CO 2 levels, in an in-situ FOCE experiment in Antarctica. We examined spatial and temporal variation in local ambient carbonate chemistry at hourly intervals at two sites between December and February and compared these with experimental conditions. We successfully maintained a mean pH offset in acidified benthic chambers of -0.38 (±0.07) from ambient for approximately 8 weeks. Local diel and seasonal fluctuations in ambient pH were duplicated in the FOCE system. Large temporal variability in acidified chambers resulted from system stoppages. The mean pH, Ω arag and fCO 2 values in the acidified chambers were 7.688 ± 0.079, 0.62 ± 0.13 and 912 ± 150 µatm, respectively. Variation in ambient pH appeared to be mainly driven by salinity and biological production and ranged from 8.019 to 8.192 with significant spatio-temporal variation. This experiment demonstrates the utility of FOCE systems to create conditions expected in future oceans that represent ecologically relevant variation, even under polar conditions.

Pliocene climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.

2010-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

Medical registrars in 2010: experience and expectations of the future consultant physicians of the UK.

PubMed

Goddard, Andrew F; Evans, Timothy; Phillips, Christopher

2011-12-01

In 2010, 2,176 medical registrars in England (43%) responded to a survey of attitudes to current and future working conditions. Regarding current working, 88% were currently happy with their job with respect to their specialty but only 49% were happy with respect to acute medicine. Even if pay was increased, 59% would only want to work a 48-hour week or less. Regarding future jobs, 59% were worried about future job prospects with 91% exploring ways of extending their training. Only 36% would consider working away from their current location as a consultant, only 42% of those trained in acute medicine wish to take part in the acute take, 15% would consider a 'sub-consultant' post and only 60% were looking forward to becoming a consultant. The findings of this survey show that medical registrars are very concerned about their future. From their perspective, clinical medicine in England is in poor health.

Wearable Sensors for Remote Health Monitoring.

PubMed

Majumder, Sumit; Mondal, Tapas; Deen, M Jamal

2017-01-12

Life expectancy in most countries has been increasing continually over the several few decades thanks to significant improvements in medicine, public health, as well as personal and environmental hygiene. However, increased life expectancy combined with falling birth rates are expected to engender a large aging demographic in the near future that would impose significant  burdens on the socio-economic structure of these countries. Therefore, it is essential to develop cost-effective, easy-to-use systems for the sake of elderly healthcare and well-being. Remote health monitoring, based on non-invasive and wearable sensors, actuators and modern communication and information technologies offers an efficient and cost-effective solution that allows the elderly to continue to live in their comfortable home environment instead of expensive healthcare facilities. These systems will also allow healthcare personnel to monitor important physiological signs of their patients in real time, assess health conditions and provide feedback from distant facilities. In this paper, we have presented and compared several low-cost and non-invasive health and activity monitoring systems that were reported in recent years. A survey on textile-based sensors that can potentially be used in wearable systems is also presented. Finally, compatibility of several communication technologies as well as future perspectives and research challenges in remote monitoring systems will be discussed.

Wearable Sensors for Remote Health Monitoring

PubMed Central

Majumder, Sumit; Mondal, Tapas; Deen, M. Jamal

2017-01-01

Life expectancy in most countries has been increasing continually over the several few decades thanks to significant improvements in medicine, public health, as well as personal and environmental hygiene. However, increased life expectancy combined with falling birth rates are expected to engender a large aging demographic in the near future that would impose significant  burdens on the socio-economic structure of these countries. Therefore, it is essential to develop cost-effective, easy-to-use systems for the sake of elderly healthcare and well-being. Remote health monitoring, based on non-invasive and wearable sensors, actuators and modern communication and information technologies offers an efficient and cost-effective solution that allows the elderly to continue to live in their comfortable home environment instead of expensive healthcare facilities. These systems will also allow healthcare personnel to monitor important physiological signs of their patients in real time, assess health conditions and provide feedback from distant facilities. In this paper, we have presented and compared several low-cost and non-invasive health and activity monitoring systems that were reported in recent years. A survey on textile-based sensors that can potentially be used in wearable systems is also presented. Finally, compatibility of several communication technologies as well as future perspectives and research challenges in remote monitoring systems will be discussed. PMID:28085085

Effects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Brisco, Brian; Mrnaghan, Kevin; Rover, Jennifer R.; Long, Jordan

2014-01-01

A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and GSN relationship and represent performance departures from expected performance conditions. These performance data were used to monitor successional events following fire. Results suggested that maximum EPA occurs 30–40 years following fire, and deciduous stands generally have higher EPA than coniferous stands. Mean undisturbed EEP is projected to increase 5.6% by 2040 and 8.7% by 2070, suggesting an increased deciduous component in boreal forests. Our results contribute to the understanding of boreal forest successional dynamics and its response to climate change. This information enables informed decisions to prepare for, and adapt to, climate change in the Yukon River Basin forest.

Distribution, genetic diversity and potential spatiotemporal scale of alien gene flow in crop wild relatives of rice (Oryza spp.) in Colombia.

PubMed

Thomas, Evert; Tovar, Eduardo; Villafañe, Carolina; Bocanegra, José Leonardo; Moreno, Rodrigo

2017-12-01

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) of rice hold important traits that can contribute to enhancing the ability of cultivated rice (Oryza sativa and O. glaberrima) to produce higher yields, cope with the effects of climate change, and resist attacks of pests and diseases, among others. However, the genetic resources of these species remain dramatically understudied, putting at risk their future availability from in situ and ex situ sources. Here we assess the distribution of genetic diversity of the four rice CWRs known to occur in Colombia (O. glumaepatula, O. alta, O. grandiglumis, and O. latifolia). Furthermore, we estimated the degree of overlap between areas with suitable habitat for cultivated and wild rice, both under current and predicted future climate conditions to assess the potential spatiotemporal scale of potential gene flow from GM rice to its CWRs. Our findings suggest that part of the observed genetic diversity and structure, at least of the most exhaustively sampled species, may be explained by their glacial and post-glacial range dynamics. Furthermore, in assessing the expected impact of climate change and the potential spatiotemporal scale of gene flow between populations of CWRs and GM rice we find significant overlap between present and future suitable areas for cultivated rice and its four CWRs. Climate change is expected to have relatively limited negative effects on the rice CWRs, with three species showing opportunities to expand their distribution ranges in the future. Given (i) the sparse presence of CWR populations in protected areas (ii) the strong suitability overlap between cultivated rice and its four CWRs; and (iii) the complexity of managing and regulating areas to prevent alien gene flow, the first priority should be to establish representative ex situ collections for all CWR species, which currently do not exist. In the absence of studies under field conditions on the scale and extent of gene flow between cultivated rice and its Colombian CWRs, effective in situ conservation might best be achieved through tailor-made management plans and exclusion of GM rice cultivation in areas holding the most genetically diverse CWR populations. This may be combined with assisted migration of populations to suitable areas where rice is unlikely to be cultivated under current and future climate conditions.

Quantisation of the holographic Ricci dark energy model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albarran, Imanol; Bouhmadi-López, Mariam, E-mail: imanol@ubi.pt, E-mail: mbl@ubi.pt

2015-08-01

While general relativity is an extremely robust theory to describe the gravitational interaction in our Universe, it is expected to fail close to singularities like the cosmological ones. On the other hand, it is well known that some dark energy models might induce future singularities; this can be the case for example within the setup of the Holographic Ricci Dark Energy model (HRDE). On this work, we perform a cosmological quantisation of the HRDE model and obtain under which conditions a cosmic doomsday can be avoided within the quantum realm. We show as well that this quantum model not onlymore » avoid future singularities but also the past Big Bang.« less

EVA Human Health and Performance Benchmarking Study Overview and Development of a Microgravity Protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norcross, Jason; Jarvis, Sarah; Bekdash, Omar; Cupples, Scott; Abercromby, Andrew

2017-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to develop a protocol to reliably characterize human health and performance metrics for individuals working inside various EVA suits under realistic spaceflight conditions. Expected results and methodologies developed during this study will provide the baseline benchmarking data and protocols with which future EVA suits and suit configurations (e.g., varied pressure, mass, center of gravity [CG]) and different test subject populations (e.g., deconditioned crewmembers) may be reliably assessed and compared. Results may also be used, in conjunction with subsequent testing, to inform fitness-for-duty standards, as well as design requirements and operations concepts for future EVA suits and other exploration systems.

Multi-agent simulation of generation expansion in electricity markets.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Botterud, A; Mahalik, M. R.; Veselka, T. D.

2007-06-01

We present a new multi-agent model of generation expansion in electricity markets. The model simulates generation investment decisions of decentralized generating companies (GenCos) interacting in a complex, multidimensional environment. A probabilistic dispatch algorithm calculates prices and profits for new candidate units in different future states of the system. Uncertainties in future load, hydropower conditions, and competitors actions are represented in a scenario tree, and decision analysis is used to identify the optimal expansion decision for each individual GenCo. We test the model using real data for the Korea power system under different assumptions about market design, market concentration, and GenCo'smore » assumed expectations about their competitors investment decisions.« less

Viticultural zoning in Portugal: current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraga, H.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.

2012-04-01

Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.

Predictors of Future Expectations of Inner-City Children: A 9-Month Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Arnett, Mitzi; Smith, Katherine; Ippolito, Maria F.

2001-01-01

Assessed contributions of internal resources, supportive family and peer relations, peer negative influences, and behavioral adjustment to positive expectations for the future for inner-city school children. Found that higher levels of positive expectation related to lower levels of problem behavior and to higher levels of school involvement,…

The role of expectations, hype and ethics in neuroimaging and neuromodulation futures

PubMed Central

Rusconi, Elena; Mitchener-Nissen, Timothy

2014-01-01

The production of expectations or future-goals for the development of techniques which “read” and modulate brain function, represent an important practical tool for neuroscientists. These visions-of-the-future assist scientists by providing focus for both individual and cross-disciplinary research programs; they encourage the development of new industrial sectors, are used to justify the allocation of government resources and funding, and via the media can help capture the imagination and support of the public. However, such expectations need to be tempered by reality. Over-hyping brain imaging and modulation will lead to disappointment; disappointment that in turn can undermine its potential. Similarly, if neuroscientists focus their attention narrowly on the science without concomitant consideration of its future ethical, legal and social implications, then their expectations may remain unrealized. To develop these arguments herein we introduce the theoretical concept of expectations and the practical consequences of expectations. We contextualize these reflections by referring to brain imaging and modulation studies on deception, which encompass the measurement-suppression-augmentation range. PMID:25400557

Eyes on the prize or nose to the grindstone? The effects of level of goal evaluation on mood and motivation.

PubMed

Houser-Marko, Linda; Sheldon, Kennon M

2008-11-01

These studies tested the hypothesis that evaluating goal feedback in terms of a primary, longer term goal can be risky for future motivation. Study 1 was a 2 x 2 experiment in which framing level (primary goal/subgoal) and feedback valence (success/failure) were manipulated for participants during a verbal skills task. In the primary goal failure condition, there was increased negative mood and decreased positive mood and expectancy for subsequent trials, even while controlling for goal difficulty and importance. Study 2 was an 8-week study throughout which participants were asked to evaluate their progress regarding a primary goal (class grade goal) or subgoal (weekly study hours goal), and success or failure varied naturally. When progress was lacking, participants in the primary goal condition experienced the largest decreases in mood and expectancy. These results suggest that it is optimal to evaluate goal progress at the lower, subgoal level, particularly after failure feedback.

Nursing Student Perceptions of Structural Empowerment.

PubMed

Moore, Shelley C; Ward, Karen S

To meet role expectations for nurses, nurses must feel empowered. Faculty contributions to the learning environment for nursing students are critical. A descriptive analysis of student perceptions of empowerment within the learning environment was conducted using a form of Kanter's Conditions of Work Effectiveness Questionnaire; 203 participants from schools in 17 different states completed surveys. Subjects demonstrated moderate degrees of structural empowerment in their learning environment. This positive finding can be further investigated and used to fully prepare future nurses.

Boldness in a deep sea hermit crab to simulated tactile predator attacks is unaffected by ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Tae Won; Barry, James P.

2016-09-01

Despite rapidly growing interest in the effects of ocean acidification on marine animals, the ability of deep-sea animals to acclimate or adapt to reduced pH conditions has received little attention. Deep-sea species are generally thought to be less tolerant of environmental variation than shallow-living species because they inhabit relatively stable conditions for nearly all environmental parameters. To explore whether deep-sea hermit crabs ( Pagurus tanneri) can acclimate to ocean acidification over several weeks, we compared behavioral "boldness," measured as time taken to re-emerge from shells after a simulated predatory attack by a toy octopus, under ambient (pH ˜7.6) and expected future (pH ˜7.1) conditions. The boldness measure for crab behavioral responses did not differ between different pH treatments, suggesting that future deep-sea acidification would not influence anti-predatory behavior. However, we did not examine the effects of olfactory cues released by predators that may affect hermit crab behavior and could be influenced by changes in the ocean carbonate system driven by increasing CO2 levels.

Effects of Climate and Fuels Management on Wildfire Occurrence, Size, Severity and Emissions in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Fites, J. A.; Keyser, A.

2015-12-01

Annual wildfire burned area in federally managed Sierra Nevada forests has increased by more than 10,000 ha per decade since the early 1970s. At the same time, recent years have seen some extremely large fires compared to the historical record, with significant areas of moderate to high severity fire (e.g., McNally 2002, Rim 2013, King 2014 fires). Changes to fuels and fire regimes due to fire suppression and land use, as well as warming temperatures and the occurrence of drought, are thought to be significant factors contributing to increased risks of large, severe fires in Sierra Nevada forests. Over 70% of the vegetated area in federally managed forests in the Sierra Nevada is classified as having altered fuels and fire regimes, while average annual temperature in the Sierra Nevada has been above the long term mean for all but four years in the past two decades. As climate is expected to continue warming for decades to come, we explored fuels management scenarios as the primary tools available to modify risks of large, severe wildfires. We developed experimental statistical models of fire occurrence, fire size, and high severity burned area, to explore the interaction between climate and altered fuels conditions. These models were applied to historical climate conditions, a sample of future climate projections, and to both current fuels conditions and a range of scenarios for fuels treatments. Emissions from wildfires were estimated using the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Our models project that average annual burned area in the Sierra Nevada will more than double by mid-century. Similarly, particulate and other pollution emissions from Sierra Nevada wildfires are projected to more than double, even if future fire severity does not change. Fuels treatment scenarios significantly reduced simulated future burned area and emissions below untreated projections. High severity burned area responded to both climate and fuels treatments. A sensitivity analysis indicated that in areas where the fraction of highly altered fuels is high, successfully restoring fuels to prehistoric conditions could more than compensate for expected climate change effects on fire severity by mid-century.

Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verfaillie, Deborah; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Déqué, Michel; Eckert, Nicolas; Lejeune, Yves; Morin, Samuel

2018-04-01

This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5-EURO-CORDEX GCM-RCM pairs spanning historical (1950-2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006-2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20 % typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 °C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 % reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986-2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 °C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards.

Expectations among the elderly about nursing home entry.

PubMed

Lindrooth, R C; Hoerger, T J; Norton, E C

2000-12-01

To assess whether the covariates that explain expectations of nursing home entry are consistent with the characteristics of those who enter nursing homes. Waves 1 and 2 of the Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) survey. We model expectations about nursing home entry as a function of expectations about leaving a bequest, living at least ten years, health condition, and other observed characteristics. We use an instrumental variables and generalized least squares (IV-GLS) method based on Hausman and Taylor (1981) to obtain more efficient estimates than fixed effects, without the restrictive assumptions of random effects. Expectations about nursing home entry are reasonably close to the actual probability of nursing home entry. Most of the variables that affect actual entry also have significant effects on expectations about entry. Medicaid subsidies for nursing home care may have little effect on expectations about nursing home entry; individuals in the lowest asset quartile, who are most likely to receive these subsidies, report probabilities not significantly different from those in other quartiles. Application of the IV-GLS approach is supported by a series of specification tests. We find that expectations about future nursing home entry are consistent with the characteristics of actual entrants. Underestimation of risk of nursing home entry as a reason for low levels of long-term care insurance is not supported by this analysis.

Expectations among the elderly about nursing home entry.

PubMed Central

Lindrooth, R C; Hoerger, T J; Norton, E C

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the covariates that explain expectations of nursing home entry are consistent with the characteristics of those who enter nursing homes. DATA SOURCES: Waves 1 and 2 of the Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) survey. STUDY DESIGN: We model expectations about nursing home entry as a function of expectations about leaving a bequest, living at least ten years, health condition, and other observed characteristics. We use an instrumental variables and generalized least squares (IV-GLS) method based on Hausman and Taylor (1981) to obtain more efficient estimates than fixed effects, without the restrictive assumptions of random effects. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Expectations about nursing home entry are reasonably close to the actual probability of nursing home entry. Most of the variables that affect actual entry also have significant effects on expectations about entry. Medicaid subsidies for nursing home care may have little effect on expectations about nursing home entry; individuals in the lowest asset quartile, who are most likely to receive these subsidies, report probabilities not significantly different from those in other quartiles. Application of the IV-GLS approach is supported by a series of specification tests. CONCLUSIONS: We find that expectations about future nursing home entry are consistent with the characteristics of actual entrants. Underestimation of risk of nursing home entry as a reason for low levels of long-term care insurance is not supported by this analysis. PMID:11130816

Robust Bayesian Experimental Design for Conceptual Model Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, H. V.; Tsai, F. T. C.

2015-12-01

A robust Bayesian optimal experimental design under uncertainty is presented to provide firm information for model discrimination, given the least number of pumping wells and observation wells. Firm information is the maximum information of a system can be guaranteed from an experimental design. The design is based on the Box-Hill expected entropy decrease (EED) before and after the experiment design and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. A max-min programming is introduced to choose the robust design that maximizes the minimal Box-Hill EED subject to that the highest expected posterior model probability satisfies a desired probability threshold. The EED is calculated by the Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The BMA method is used to predict future observations and to quantify future observation uncertainty arising from conceptual and parametric uncertainties in calculating EED. Monte Carlo approach is adopted to quantify the uncertainty in the posterior model probabilities. The optimal experimental design is tested by a synthetic 5-layer anisotropic confined aquifer. Nine conceptual groundwater models are constructed due to uncertain geological architecture and boundary condition. High-performance computing is used to enumerate all possible design solutions in order to identify the most plausible groundwater model. Results highlight the impacts of scedasticity in future observation data as well as uncertainty sources on potential pumping and observation locations.

Experience of disused source management in Latin America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pimenta Mourao, R.

2008-07-01

The Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (Center for the Development of Nuclear Technology) - CDTN - has been actively engaged in cooperation programs for disused source management throughout the Latin American and the Caribbean region since 1996. The CDTN source conditioning team participated in the preparation of the technical procedures established for the different tasks involved in the radium sources conditioning operations, like preparation of the packaging for conditioning; sources conditioning; capsule welding; leak test in radium-containing capsule; and radiation protection planning for the conditioning of disused radium sources. The team also carried out twelve radium sources conditioning operationmore » in the region, besides in-house operations, which resulted in a total conditioned activity of approximately 525 GBq, or 14,200 mg of radium. Additionally, one operation was carried out in Nicaragua to safely condition three Cobalt teletherapy heads stored under very precarious conditions in the premises of an old hospital. More recently, the team started its participation in an IAEA- and US State Department-sponsored program for the repatriation of disused or excess transuranic sources presently stored at users' premises or under regulatory control in different countries in the region. In September 2007 the team attended a theoretical and practical training in transuranic sources management, including the participation in the conditioning of different neutron sources in certified packages. It is expected that the trained team will carry out similar operations in other Latin American countries. Finally, the team is expected be involved in the near future in the repatriation of US-origin teletherapy heads and industrial gauges. (authors)« less

Future Perfect?: Teachers' Expectations and Explanations of Their Latino Immigrant Students' Postsecondary Futures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dabach, Dafney Blanca; Suárez-Orozco, Carola; Hernandez, Sera J.; Brooks, Maneka Deanna

2018-01-01

Teacher expectancy research has demonstrated the greatest effects for members of racialized groups. Most research has focused on students' near-term abilities; missing are understandings of how teachers perceive their students' future trajectories. Drawing on social mirroring and attribution theories, this study investigates how 14 elementary,…

Genetic maladaptation of coastal Douglas-fir seedlings to future climates

Treesearch

Brad St. Clair;  Glenn T. Howe

2007-01-01

Climates are expected to warm considerably over the next century, resulting in expectations that plant populations will not be adapted to future climates.We estimated the risk of maladaptation of current populations of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to future climates as the proportion of nonoverlap between two normal...

Mexican American Seventh Graders' Future Work and Family Plans: Associations with Cultural Experiences and Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cansler, Emily; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Simpkins, Sandra D.

2012-01-01

We describe Mexican American seventh graders' expectations for future work and family roles and investigate links between patterns of future expectations and adolescents' cultural experiences and adjustment. Adolescents participated in home interviews and a series of seven nightly phone calls. Five unique patterns of adolescents' future…

Future Expectations of Brasilian Street Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raffaelli, M.; Koller, S.H.

2005-01-01

Future expectations of youth surviving on the streets of Porto Alegre, Brasil, were examined. The sample consisted of 35 boys and 34 girls aged 10-18 (M age 14.4) who participated in a sentence completion task and semi-structured interviews. Responses to two incomplete sentences regarding the future revealed a mismatch between hoped-for and…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Warner, Ethan; Sun, Yongling

The Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technologies Program (ARFVTP) supports a wide range of alternative, low-carbon fuel and vehicle projects in California. This report focuses on two types of ARFVTP benefits. Expected benefits reflect successful deployment of vehicles and fuels supported through program projects. Market transformation benefits represent benefits resulting from project influences on future market conditions to accelerated technology adoption rates. Data collected directly from ARFVTP projects funded from 2009 to first quarter 2014 are used as inputs to the benefits analysis, where possible. Expected benefit estimation methods rely primarily upon project-level data and result in year single-pointmore » estimates within the 2011 to 2025 analysis period. Results suggest that the 178 projects evaluated for expected benefits, representing an investment of $351.3 million in ARFVTP funds, could result in a reduction in petroleum fuel use by 236 million gallons per year and greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 1.7 million metric tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) per year by 2025. Market transformation benefits are described as accruing in addition to expected benefits. They are inherently more uncertain and theoretical than expected benefits, and are therefore reported as high and low ranges, with results suggesting reductions of 1.1 MMTCO2e to 2.5 MMTCO2e per year in GHG reductions and 102 million to 330 million gallons per year in petroleum fuel reductions by 2025. Taking both benefit types into account, results suggest that ARFVTP projects have the potential to make substantial progress toward meeting California's long-term GHG and petroleum fuel use reduction goals. As additional project data become available and market success with alternative and renewable fuels and vehicles grows, the analytic framework relied upon to develop these estimates will become more rigorous and will have a greater capacity to inform future ARFVTP activities.« less

Satisfaction with nursing education, job satisfaction, and work intentions of new graduate nurses.

PubMed

Kenny, Patricia; Reeve, Rebecca; Hall, Jane

2016-01-01

In the context of predictions of future shortages of nurses, retaining new graduate nurses in the nursing workforce is essential to ensure sufficient nurses in the future. This paper investigates the links between satisfaction with nursing education and job satisfaction, and job dissatisfaction and intentions to leave a nursing job. It uses survey data from a cohort study of nursing students recruited through two Australian universities and followed after graduation and workforce entry. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to simultaneously estimate the impact of educational satisfaction (work preparation component) on job satisfaction and the impact of job satisfaction on the expectation of leaving the current job. Two job satisfaction sub-scales were identified: 1) work environment satisfaction and 2) work hours and wages satisfaction. Work preparation satisfaction was significantly and positively associated with both job satisfaction scales but only work environment satisfaction was significantly associated with the expectation to stay in the job; a one standard deviation increase in work environment satisfaction was associated with a 13.5 percentage point reduction in the probability of expecting to leave. The estimated effect of satisfaction with education on expecting to leave, occurring indirectly through job satisfaction, was small (reducing the probability by less than 3 percentage points for a 1 point increase in work preparation satisfaction). Participating in a graduate transition program had the largest effect, reducing the probability of expecting to leave by 26 percentage points, on average. The study results suggest policies which focus on improving satisfaction with the work environment would be more effective at retaining nurses early in their career than improvements to conditions such as work hours and wages. Investment in new graduate transition programs would potentially have the largest impact on retention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Streamflow alteration and habitat ramifications for a threatened fish species in the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.; Eng, Kenny; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.

2017-01-01

In the Central United States, the Arkansas darter (Etheostoma cragini) is listed as a threatened fish species by the State of Kansas. Survival of the darter is threatened by loss of habitat caused by changing streamflow conditions, in particular flow depletion. Future management of darter populations and habitats requires an understanding of streamflow conditions and how those conditions may have changed over time in response to natural and anthropogenic factors. In Kansas, streamflow alteration was assessed at 9 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in 6 priority basins with no pronounced long-term trends in precipitation. The assessment was based on a comparison of observed (O) and predicted expected (E) reference conditions for 29 flow metrics. The O/E results indicated a likely or possible diminished flow condition in 2 basins; the primary cause of which is groundwater-level declines resulting from groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture. In these 2 basins, habitat characteristics adversely affected by flow depletion may include stream connectivity, pools, and water temperature. The other 4 basins were minimally affected, or unaffected, by flow depletion and therefore may provide the best opportunity for preservation of darter habitat. Through the O/E analysis, anthropogenic streamflow alteration was quantified and the results will enable better-informed decisions pertaining to the future management of darters in Kansas.

Evaluation of future base-flow water-quality conditions in the Hillsborough River, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fernandez, Mario; Goetz, C.L.; Miller, J.E.

1984-01-01

A one-dimensional, steady-state, water-quality model was developed for a 30.0 mile reach of the Hillsborough River to evaluate water-quality conditions to be expected from future development. The model was calibrated and verified using data collected under critical base-flow conditions in April and December 1978. Dissolved organic nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, and total and fecal coliforms were modeled for most of the study reach. Model results were used to evaluate the impacts of two typical housing developments on water-quality conditions in Tampa Reservoir. One development is located in the Cypress Creek basin and the other near the upper end of the study reach. Model results show development in the Hillsborough River basin may cause increased total and fecal coliform conditions. Simulated total coliforms at the Tampa water treatment plant for 1-, 3-, and 5-square-mile developments located in the Cypress Creek basin were 3,000, 5,400, and 8,300 colonies per 100 milliliters. Similar developments, however, located near the upper end of the study reach were 2,000, 3,600, and 5,100 colonies per 100 milliliters. Simulated fecal coliforms were 360, 700, and 100 and 180, 350, and 510 colonies per 100 milliliters, respectively. Other constituents modeled showed only minor increases in concentrations. (USGS)

Future coral reef habitat marginality: Temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guinotte, J.M.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Kleypas, J.A.

2003-01-01

Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Freeman, Lauren A

2015-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chand, Savin S.; Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, Hua; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-02-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (~20-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events--and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events--around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.

Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; Hutjes, Ronald; Holtslag, Albert

2016-10-01

The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3-5 and 2-5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7-8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2-6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

Mexican American 7th Graders’ Future Work and Family Plans: Associations with Cultural Experiences and Adjustment

PubMed Central

Cansler, Emily; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Simpkins, Sandra D.

2011-01-01

We describe Mexican American 7th graders’ expectations for future work and family roles and investigate links between patterns of future expectations and adolescents’ cultural experiences and adjustment. Adolescents participated in home interviews and a series of seven nightly phone calls. Five unique patterns of adolescents’ future expectations were identified (N = 246): Career Oriented, Independent, Family Oriented, Early, and Inconsistent. Career Oriented adolescents had the highest socioeconomic status and contact with the U.S. (e.g., generation status) whereas Family Oriented adolescents had the lowest. Cultural orientations, values, and involvement also varied across groups. For example, Career Oriented adolescents reported significantly higher familism values compared to Inconsistent adolescents. Clusters also differed on adjustment: Career Oriented and Family Oriented adolescents reported higher parental warmth and less risky behavior compared to Independent and Inconsistent adolescents. Findings underscore the multi-faceted nature of adolescents’ future expectations and the diversity in cultural experiences among Mexican origin youth. PMID:23338812

Future Flight Decks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arbuckle, P. Douglas; Abbott, Kathy H.; Abbott, Terence S.; Schutte, Paul C.

1998-01-01

The evolution of commercial transport flight deck configurations over the past 20-30 years and expected future developments are described. Key factors in the aviation environment are identified that the authors expect will significantly affect flight deck designers. One of these is the requirement for commercial aviation accident rate reduction, which is probably required if global commercial aviation is to grow as projected. Other factors include the growing incrementalism in flight deck implementation, definition of future airspace operations, and expectations of a future pilot corps that will have grown up with computers. Future flight deck developments are extrapolated from observable factors in the aviation environment, recent research results in the area of pilot-centered flight deck systems, and by considering expected advances in technology that are being driven by other than aviation requirements. The authors hypothesize that revolutionary flight deck configuration changes will be possible with development of human-centered flight deck design methodologies that take full advantage of commercial and/or entertainment-driven technologies.

Role of nondestructive evaluation in civil aviation: historical development, current status, future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Hans J.

1995-07-01

Nondestructive evaluation has been used in civil aviation for 50 years. Until the arrival of the jet era it was mostly applied to component inspection. Since the damage-tolerant design philosophy was introduced by mandate for large transport aircraft, it has become an integral part of their design and maintenance. In the near future its role in the maintenance of aging small transport aircraft is expected to grow significantly. The most important factor contributing to the growing importance of NDE is the fact that the industry has been operating its aircraft much longer than originally envisioned, making it necessary to carefully monitor their structural condition to assure their airworthiness. NDE is helping making it economically feasible to operate aircraft for extended life times. Another major factor is the increased use of advanced materials, such as composites. Again, monitoring has to assure integrity. More recently, in an industry which has become highly competitive, NDE is becoming an important tool in the quest for reducing maintenance costs. The importance of NDE is expected to grow further.

A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: Easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Bell, David M.

2017-01-01

Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of basal area reduction, has been quantified in dryland forests such as those of the drought-prone Southwest US. We used thousands of repeatedly measured forest plots to show that unusually warm and dry conditions are related to high tree mortality rates and that mortality is positively related to basal area. Those relationships suggest that while increasing high temperature extremes forecasted by climate models may lead to elevated tree mortality during the 21st century, future tree mortality might be partly ameliorated by reducing stand basal area. This adaptive forest management strategy may provide a window of opportunity for forest managers and policy makers to guide forest transitions to species and/or genotypes more suited to future climates.

The Pharma Summit 2010: competing in the future healthcare system.

PubMed

Kibble, Alexandra

2010-04-01

The Pharma Summit 2010, held in London, included topics covering the future changes and developments that are expected in the pharmaceutical industry. This conference report highlights selected presentations on various visions for the future of the pharma industry, the expected revolution in healthcare, changes with patients driving healthcare innovation, the future of healthcare technology, and the outlook for the global economy and emerging markets in the pharma industry.

Hindcasting and forecasting of climatology for Gilbert Bay, Labrador: A marine protected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Sara J.

Gilbert Bay is a marine protected area (MPA) on the southeastern coast of Labrador, Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. Future climate change in the region is expected to have an impact on the coastal marine environment and local communities in the future. This thesis presents results from a hindcast and forecasts study of physical oceanographic conditions for Gilbert Bay. The first section of this thesis examines the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. The seasonal and interannual variability of the near surface atmospheric parameters are described. Seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a physical ocean model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). The results of the hindcast model suggest that the atmospheric interannual variability of the Gilbert Bay region is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A warming trend observed in the subpolar North Atlantic was influenced by the local climate of coastal Labrador during the recent decade of 1995-2005. The second section of this thesis presents a model forecast of the impact of climate change on the physical conditions within Gilbert Bay over the next century. Climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment and the US Climate Change Science Program Project (US CCSP), specifically the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), were used. Atmospheric parameters and related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter for three SRES are simulated with the GOTM, and are then compared to the hindcast study results. The results suggest that the water column during future winters will become warmer in the second half of the 21st century. In the summer the atmosphere will be warmer and more humid. Cloudiness and precipitation are expected to increase. This will have an impact on the vertical stratification of the water column. The surface mixed layer is expected to become warmer, fresher and much shallower than seen in the past. The stratification below the seasonal thermocline will weaken and vertical mixing will intensify. A significant change in surface sea-ice coverage is also suggested by the forecast. Continuing reduction in sea-ice formation during the winter months as highlighted by the hindcast study is expected to affect living conditions of the neighbouring coastal communities around the bay, specifically by increasing the danger of travelling across the bay. A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem may be favourable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of travelling across the bay by snowmobile.

Positive future orientation as a mediator between traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China.

PubMed

Zhang, Jintao; Zhao, Guoxiang; Li, Xiaoming; Hong, Yan; Fang, Xiaoyi; Barnett, Douglas; Lin, Xiuyun; Zhao, Junfeng; Zhang, Liying

2009-12-01

The current study was designed to explore the effect of future orientation in mediating the relationship between traumatic events and mental health in children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China. Cross-sectional data were collected from 1221 children affected by HIV/AIDS (755 AIDS orphans and 466 vulnerable children). Future orientation among children was measured using three indicators (future expectation, hopefulness toward the future, and perceived control over the future). Measures of mental health consisted of depression, loneliness, and self-esteem. Children's experience of any traumatic events was measured using a modified version of the Life Incidence of Traumatic Events-Student Form. Mediation analysis was conducted using structural equation modeling (SEM) methods. Among the children surveyed, most of the traumatic indicators were negatively associated with future expectation, hopefulness, perceived control, and self-esteem, and positively associated with depression and loneliness. The SEM of mediation analysis demonstrated an adequate fit. Future orientation fully mediated the relationship between traumatic events and mental health and accounted for 67.9% of the total effect of traumatic events on mental health. Results of this study support the positive effect of future expectation in mediating the relationship between traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in China. Future mental health promotion and intervention efforts targeting children affected by HIV/AIDS should include components that can mitigate the negative impact of traumatic events on their lives. These components may aim to develop children's positive future expectations, increase their hopefulness toward the future, and improve their perceived control over the future.

Transposition of Francis turbine cavitation compliance at partial load to different operating conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, J.; Favrel, A.; Landry, C.; Nicolet, C.; Avellan, F.

2017-04-01

Francis turbines operating in part load conditions experience a swirling flow at the runner outlet leading to the development of a precessing cavitation vortex rope in the draft tube. This cavitation vortex rope changes drastically the velocity of pressure waves traveling in the draft tube and may lead to resonance conditions in the hydraulic circuit. The wave speed being strongly related to the cavitation compliance, this research work presents a simple model to explain how it is affected by variations of operating conditions and proposes a method to transpose its values. Even though the focus of this paper is on transpositions within the same turbine scale, the methodology is also expected to be tested for the model to prototype transposition in the future. Comparisons between measurements and calculations are in good agreement.

Imaging resolution and properties analysis of super resolution microscopy with parallel detection under different noise, detector and image restoration conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhongzhi; Liu, Shaocong; Sun, Shiyi; Kuang, Cuifang; Liu, Xu

2018-06-01

Parallel detection, which can use the additional information of a pinhole plane image taken at every excitation scan position, could be an efficient method to enhance the resolution of a confocal laser scanning microscope. In this paper, we discuss images obtained under different conditions and using different image restoration methods with parallel detection to quantitatively compare the imaging quality. The conditions include different noise levels and different detector array settings. The image restoration methods include linear deconvolution and pixel reassignment with Richard-Lucy deconvolution and with maximum-likelihood estimation deconvolution. The results show that the linear deconvolution share properties such as high-efficiency and the best performance under all different conditions, and is therefore expected to be of use for future biomedical routine research.

Impacts of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

2017-05-01

A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The "business-as-usual" climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979-2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979-2008), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights ( H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.

Active inference and epistemic value.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2015-01-01

We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms.

FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Covert, S. Alex; Estes, Nick J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Krueger, Damon; Wieferich, Daniel J.; Slattery, Michael T.; Lyons, John D.; McKenna, James E.; Infante, Dana M.; Bruce, Jennifer L.

2016-10-13

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km).Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4 of 5 cool-water species under present-day conditions will decline as much as 86 percent and as little as 33 percent, and habitats suitable for all 4 warm-water species will increase as much as 33 percent and as little as 7 percent. This report documents the approach and data used to predict and project fish species occurrence under present-day and future climate conditions for 13 lotic fish species in the United States Great Lakes Basin. A Web-based decision support mapping application termed “FishVis” was developed to provide a means to integrate, visualize, query, and download the results of these projected climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.

Expectations for Future Relationship Satisfaction: Unique Sources and Critical Implications for Commitment

PubMed Central

Baker, Levi R.; McNulty, James K.; VanderDrift, Laura E.

2017-01-01

Contemporary perspectives on relationship commitment posit that intimates decide whether or not to maintain a relationship based on their commitment to that relationship, and that they base such commitment partially on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Nevertheless, given that ending a relationship requires knowing about both the current state of the relationship and the likely future state of the relationship, we propose that people base their commitment to a relationship more on their expected future satisfaction with the relationship than on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Six studies provided evidence for these ideas. Study 1 demonstrated that expected satisfaction is shaped by not only current satisfaction but also several unique indicators of the likelihood of future satisfaction, including anticipated life events, plans to improve the relationship, and individual differences. Then, using a combination of cross-sectional, experimental, and longitudinal methods, Studies 2–6 demonstrated that (a) expected satisfaction was a stronger predictor of relationship commitment, maintenance behaviors, and/or divorce than was current satisfaction and (b) expected satisfaction mediated the association between current satisfaction and these outcomes. These findings highlight not only the need to incorporate expected satisfaction into extent perspectives on commitment, but also the importance of expectations for decision-making processes more broadly. PMID:28368196

Using Emotion as Information in Future-Oriented Cognition: Individual Differences in the Context of State Negative Affect

PubMed Central

Marroquín, Brett; Boyle, Chloe C.; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan; Stanton, Annette L.

2016-01-01

Predictions about the future are susceptible to mood-congruent influences of emotional state. However, recent work suggests individuals also differ in the degree to which they incorporate emotion into cognition. This study examined the role of such individual differences in the context of state negative emotion. We examined whether trait tendencies to use negative or positive emotion as information affect individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how events will feel (affective forecasting), and whether trait influences depend on emotional state. Participants (N=119) reported on tendencies to use emotion as information (“following feelings”), underwent an emotion induction (negative versus neutral), and made likelihood estimates and affective forecasts for future events. Views of the future were predicted by both emotional state and individual differences in following feelings. Whereas following negative feelings affected most future-oriented cognition across emotional states, following positive feelings specifically buffered individuals' views of the future in the negative emotion condition, and specifically for positive future events, a category of future-event prediction especially important in psychological health. Individual differences may confer predisposition toward optimistic or pessimistic expectations of the future in the context of acute negative emotion, with implications for adaptive and maladaptive functioning. PMID:27041783

Factors affecting return to work after injury or illness: best evidence synthesis of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Cancelliere, Carol; Donovan, James; Stochkendahl, Mette Jensen; Biscardi, Melissa; Ammendolia, Carlo; Myburgh, Corrie; Cassidy, J David

2016-01-01

Work disability is a major personal, financial and public health burden. Predicting future work success is a major focus of research. To identify common prognostic factors for return-to-work across different health and injury conditions and to describe their association with return-to-work outcomes. Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, Cinahl, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and the grey literature were searched from January 1, 2004 to September 1, 2013. Systematic reviews addressing return-to-work in various conditions and injuries were selected. Eligible studies were critically appraised using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network criteria to identify low risk of bias reviews. Of the 36,193 titles screened and the 94 eligible studies reviewed, 56 systematic reviews were accepted as low risk of bias. Over half of these focused on musculoskeletal disorders, which were primarily spine related (e.g., neck and low back pain). The other half of studies assessed workers with mental health or cardiovascular conditions, stroke, cancer, multiple sclerosis or other non-specified health conditions. Many factors have been assessed, but few consistently across conditions. Common factors associated with positive return-to-work outcomes were higher education and socioeconomic status, higher self-efficacy and optimistic expectations for recovery and return-to-work, lower severity of the injury/illness, return-to-work coordination, and multidisciplinary interventions that include the workplace and stakeholders. Common factors associated with negative return-to-work outcomes were older age, being female, higher pain or disability, depression, higher physical work demands, previous sick leave and unemployment, and activity limitations. Expectations of recovery and return-to-work, pain and disability levels, depression, workplace factors, and access to multidisciplinary resources are important modifiable factors in progressing return-to-work across health and injury conditions. Employers, healthcare providers and other stakeholders can use this information to facilitate return-to-work for injured/ill workers regardless of the specific injury or illness. Future studies should investigate novel interventions, and other factors that may be common across health conditions.

Lessons Learned from Applications of a Climate Change Decision Tree toWater System Projects in Kenya and Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C.

2015-12-01

The Decision Tree Framework developed for the World Bank's Water Partnership Program provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process, the project planner is empowered to confidently communicate the method by which the vulnerabilities of the project have been assessed, and how the adjustments that were made (if any were necessary) improved the project's feasibility and profitability. The framework adopts a "bottom-up" approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understanding of a project's vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties (e.g., economic, environmental, demographic, political). It helps identify projects that perform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutions that are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected. Lessons learned through application of the Decision Tree to case studies in Kenya and Nepal will be presented, and aspects of the framework requiring further refinement will be described.

Mitral valve prolapse and Marfan syndrome.

PubMed

Thacoor, Amitabh

2017-07-01

Marfan syndrome is a multisystemic genetic condition affecting connective tissue. It carries a reduced life expectancy, largely dependent on cardiovascular complications. More common cardiac manifestations such as aortic dissection and aortic valve incompetence have been widely documented in the literature. Mitral valve prolapse (MVP), however, has remained poorly documented. This article aims at exploring the existing literature on the pathophysiology and diagnosis of MVP in patients with Marfan syndrome, defining its current management and outlining the future developments surrounding it. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Spacecraft formation flying for Earth-crossing object deflections using a power limited laser ablating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Sung-Moon; Song, Young-Joo; Park, Sang-Young; Choi, Kyu-Hong

2009-06-01

A formation flying strategy with an Earth-crossing object (ECO) is proposed to avoid the Earth collision. Assuming that a future conceptual spacecraft equipped with a powerful laser ablation tool already rendezvoused with a fictitious Earth collision object, the optimal required laser operating duration and direction histories are accurately derived to miss the Earth. Based on these results, the concept of formation flying between the object and the spacecraft is applied and analyzed as to establish the spacecraft's orbital motion design strategy. A fictitious "Apophis"-like object is established to impact with the Earth and two major deflection scenarios are designed and analyzed. These scenarios include the cases for the both short and long laser operating duration to avoid the Earth impact. Also, requirement of onboard laser tool's for both cases are discussed. As a result, the optimal initial conditions for the spacecraft to maintain its relative trajectory to the object are discovered. Additionally, the discovered optimal initial conditions also satisfied the optimal required laser operating conditions with no additional spacecraft's own fuel expenditure to achieve the spacecraft formation flying with the ECO. The initial conditions founded in the current research can be used as a spacecraft's initial rendezvous points with the ECO when designing the future deflection missions with laser ablation tools. The results with proposed strategy are expected to make more advances in the fields of the conceptual studies, especially for the future deflection missions using powerful laser ablation tools.

Vegetation dynamics associated with changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate in hardwood forests of Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, USA.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Belyazid, S; Sullivan, T J; Bell, M; Clark, C; Blett, T; Evans, T; Cass, W; Hyduke, A; Sverdrup, H

2018-06-01

Ecological effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition on two hardwood forest sites in the eastern United States were simulated in the context of a changing climate using the dynamic coupled biogeochemical/ecological model chain ForSAFE-Veg. The sites are a mixed oak forest in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (Piney River) and a mixed oak-sugar maple forest in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee (Cosby Creek). The sites have received relatively high levels of both S and N deposition and the climate has warmed over the past half century or longer. The model was used to evaluate the composition of the understory plant communities, the alignment between plant species niche preferences and ambient conditions, and estimate changes in relative species abundances as reflected by plant cover under various scenarios of future atmospheric N and S deposition and climate change. The main driver of ecological effects was soil solution N concentration. Results of this research suggested that future climate change might compromise the capacity for the forests to sustain habitat suitability. However, vegetation results should be considered preliminary until further model validation can be performed. With expected future climate change, preliminary estimates suggest that sustained future N deposition above 7.4 and 5.0 kg N/ha/yr is expected to decrease contemporary habitat suitability for indicator plant species located at Piney River and Cosby Creek, respectively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Heidi Lada

This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected population density to estimate how many people will be affected by rising temperatures. Our results show that over 4 billion people annually will experience prolonged periods of Danger heat index conditions, under which heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely. In addition, a majority of people subjected to prolonged high heat stress conditions are located in tropical developing nations, such as those in south and Southeast Asia, where population density is high and large numbers of people work outdoors. Many countries in these regions lack the resources to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the large numbers of people likely to experience heat-related illness and death.

The sooner, the better: exercise outcome proximity and intrinsic motivation.

PubMed

Evans, M Blair; Cooke, Lisa M; Murray, Robyn A; Wilson, Anne E

2014-11-01

Despite evidence that outcomes are highly valued when they are expected sooner rather than further into the future (Ainslie, 1975), limited research effort has been devoted to understanding the role of exercise outcome proximity. The purpose of this study was to examine how temporal proximity to positive outcomes influences exercisers' intrinsic motivation. We expected that focusing people on temporally proximal exercise outcomes would increase intrinsic motivation, especially among low-frequency exercisers. This online experimental study was completed by 135 community exercisers (Mage  = 31.11, SD = 10.29; 62% female) who reported an average of 4.86 exercise bouts per week (SD = 2.12). Participants were randomly assigned to a condition that primed temporally proximal positive exercise outcomes (i.e. experienced during or directly following an exercise bout) or temporally distal outcomes (i.e. experienced after days, months, or years of regular exercise). Participants then reported perceptions of behavioral regulation in exercise. As expected, the proximal exercise outcome condition elicited increased intrinsic regulation among those participants who exercised less frequently (i.e. 1 SD below the mean). This study reveals the importance of considering proximity as an important dimension of exercise outcomes-particularly when promoting intrinsic motivation among relatively infrequent exercisers. © 2014 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Scott L.; Millar, Constance I.; Collins, Brandon M.

2010-04-01

Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.

Building an Experimental Setup to Characterize an H4RG-15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, Mickie; Hodapp, K.; Hall, Donald N. B.; Goebel, Sean B.; Jacobson, Shane M.

2018-01-01

The Teledyne Imaging Sensors H4RG-15 infrared detector is designed for the next era of extremely large telescopes. Characterization of individual H4RG-15 detectors are critical for future astronomical use. ULBcam, a former UH88 IR camera and remnant test dewar for H2RG characterization, was previously modified for H4RG-15 characterization. During the summer, this system was further upgraded with a baffle tube to a blackbody illumination source to allow controlled field illumination. This baffle tube, designed in OpenSCAD, was constructed in the IfA machine shop. Specific placements of the 50-micron aperture and scatter restrictive baffling was designed in Zemax. Four separate data sets were acquired to look into detector persistence, dark current, read noise, and charge gain. With the illumination source set at 450 K, ten ramps of 90/90 read frames were taken to pass saturation values. These tests were repeated at 500K to show results at over saturated conditions. Five ramps of 136/136 read frames were taken with a blank shutter applied. The persistence results showed expected results with signals settling from the third ramp. Dark current results showed higher than Teledyne stated values at 0.06 electrons/second, a factor of 6 higher than expected, which exposes systematic ULBcam dark testing capabilities. The read noise resulted with an expected value of 0.014 electrons. The charge gain showed 0.02 electrons/ADU where the expected value is 2 electrons/ADU. Data analysis using reference frame subtraction will be done for future work.

Applying crash data to injury claims - an investigation of determinant factors in severe motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Shannon, Darren; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Eggert, Julian

2018-04-01

An extensive number of research studies have attempted to capture the factors that influence the severity of vehicle impacts. The high number of risks facing all traffic participants has led to a gradual increase in sophisticated data collection schemes linking crash characteristics to subsequent severity measures. This study serves as a departure from previous research by relating injuries suffered in road traffic accidents to expected trauma compensation payouts and deriving a quantitative cost function. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) Crash Injury Research (CIREN) database for the years 2005-2014 is combined with the Book of Quantum, an Irish governmental document that offers guidelines on the appropriate compensation to be awarded for injuries sustained in accidents. A multiple linear regression is carried out to identify the crash factors that significantly influence expected compensation costs and compared to ordered and multinomial logit models. The model offers encouraging results given the inherent variation expected in vehicular incidents and the subjectivity influencing compensation payout judgments, attaining an adjusted-R 2 fit of 20.6% when uninfluential factors are removed. It is found that relative speed at time of impact and dark conditions increase the expected costs, while rear-end incidents, incident sustained in van-based trucks and incidents sustained while turning result in lower expected compensations. The number of airbags available in the vehicle is also a significant factor. The scalar-outcome approach used in this research offers an alternative methodology to the discrete-outcome models that dominate traffic safety analyses. The results also raise queries on the future development of claims reserving (capital allocations earmarked for future expected claims payments) as advanced driver assistant systems (ADASs) seek to eradicate the most frequent types of crash factors upon which insurance mathematics base their assumptions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of 15 parameters influencing the long-term survival of bacteria in aquatic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obenhuber, D. C.

1993-01-01

NASA is presently engaged in the design and development of a water reclamation system for the future space station. A major concern in processing water is the control of microbial contamination. As a means of developing an optimal microbial control strategy, studies were undertaken to determine the type and amount of contamination which could be expected in these systems under a variety of changing environmental conditions. A laboratory-based Taguchi optimization experiment was conducted to determine the ideal settings for 15 parameters which influence the survival of six bacterial species in aquatic systems. The experiment demonstrated that the bacterial survival period could be decreased significantly by optimizing environmental conditions.

Morphology evolution of hierarchical ZnO nanostructures modulated by supersaturation and growth temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Youguo; Zhou, Lixia; Yu, Lianqing; Zhang, Ye

2008-07-01

Three kinds of ZnO hierarchical structures, nanocombs with tube- and needle-shaped teeth and hierarchical nanorod arrays, were successfully synthesized through the chemical vapor deposition method. Combining the experimental parameters, the microcosmic growing conditions (growth temperature and supersaturation) along the flux was discussed at length, and, based on the conclusions, three reasonable growth processes were proposed. The results and discussions were beneficial to further realize the relation between the growing behavior of the nanomaterial and microcosmic conditions, and the hierarchical nanostructures obtained were also expected to have potential applications as functional blocks in future nanodevices. Furthermore, the study of photoluminescence further indicated that the physical properties were strongly dependent on the crystal structure.

Expectations from different perspectives on future work outcome of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities.

PubMed

Holwerda, Anja; Brouwer, Sandra; de Boer, Michiel R; Groothoff, Johan W; van der Klink, Jac J L

2015-03-01

Expectations strongly influence future employment outcomes and social networks seem to mediate employment success of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities. The aim of this study is to examine the expectations of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities from special needs education, their parents and their school teachers regarding future work and the extent to which these expectations predict work outcome. Data on 341 young adults with intellectual or developmental disabilities, coming from special needs education, aged 17-20 years, and with an ability to work according to the Social Security Institute were examined. The school teacher's expectation was the only perspective that significantly predicted entering competitive employment, with a complementary effect of the expectation of parents and a small additional effect of the expectation of the young adult. Expectations of school teachers and parents are valuable in predicting work outcome. Therefore, it is important for professionals working with the young adult in the transition from school to work to incorporate the knowledge of school teachers and parents regarding the abilities of the young adult to enter competitive employment as a valuable source of information.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

Anxiety-Linked Expectancy Bias across the Adult Lifespan

PubMed Central

Steinman, Shari A.; Smyth, Frederick L.; Bucks, Romola S.; MacLeod, Colin; Teachman, Bethany A.

2012-01-01

Anxiety is characterized by a negative expectancy bias, such that anxious individuals report negatively distorted expectations about the future. Contrary to anxiety, aging is characterized by a positivity effect, such that aging is associated with a tendency to attend to and remember positive information, relative to negative information. The current study integrates these literatures to examine anxiety- and age-linked biases when thinking about the future. Participants (N=1109) completed a procedure that involved reading valenced scenarios (positive, negative, or ambiguous) and then rating the likelihood of future valenced events occurring. Results suggest that aging and anxiety have independent and opposing effects. Heightened anxiety was associated with a reduced expectancy for positive events, regardless of the scenarios’ current emotional valence, whereas increased age was associated with an inflated expectancy for positive events, which was strongest when individuals were processing socially-relevant or negative scenarios. PMID:22861128

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

PubMed

Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2017-04-01

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Direct Operational Field Test Evaluation, Simulation And Modeling

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-08-01

THE PURPOSE OF THE SIMULATION EVALUATION IS TO ASSESS THE EXPECTED FUTURE IMPACTS OF THE DIRECT TECHNOLOGIES UNDER SCENARIOS OF FULL DEPLOYMENT. THIS PROVIDED SOME INDICATION OF THE LEVEL OF BENEFITS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DIRECT IN THE FUTURE. BE...

Nonverbal behavior in soccer: the influence of dominant and submissive body language on the impression formation and expectancy of success of soccer players.

PubMed

Furley, Philip; Dicks, Matt; Memmert, Daniel

2012-02-01

In the present article, we investigate the effects of specific nonverbal behaviors signaling dominance and submissiveness on impression formation and outcome expectation in the soccer penalty kick situation. In Experiment 1, results indicated that penalty takers with dominant body language are perceived more positively by soccer goalkeepers and players and are expected to perform better than players with a submissive body language. This effect was similar for both video and point-light displays. Moreover, in contrast to previous studies, we found no effect of clothing (red vs. white) in the video condition. In Experiment 2, we used the implicit association test to demonstrate that dominant body language is implicitly associated with a positive soccer player schema whereas submissive body language is implicitly associated with a negative soccer player schema. The implications of our findings are discussed with reference to future implications for theory and research in the study of person perception in sport.

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

PubMed

Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

2014-03-01

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Experimental evidence for adaptive personalities in a wild passerine bird

PubMed Central

Nicolaus, Marion; Tinbergen, Joost M.; Bouwman, Karen M.; Michler, Stephanie P. M.; Ubels, Richard; Both, Christiaan; Kempenaers, Bart; Dingemanse, Niels J.

2012-01-01

Individuals of the same species differ consistently in risky actions. Such ‘animal personality’ variation is intriguing because behavioural flexibility is often assumed to be the norm. Recent theory predicts that between-individual differences in propensity to take risks should evolve if individuals differ in future fitness expectations: individuals with high long-term fitness expectations (i.e. that have much to lose) should behave consistently more cautious than individuals with lower expectations. Consequently, any manipulation of future fitness expectations should result in within-individual changes in risky behaviour in the direction predicted by this adaptive theory. We tested this prediction and confirmed experimentally that individuals indeed adjust their ‘exploration behaviour’, a proxy for risk-taking behaviour, to their future fitness expectations. We show for wild great tits (Parus major) that individuals with experimentally decreased survival probability become faster explorers (i.e. increase risk-taking behaviour) compared to individuals with increased survival probability. We also show, using quantitative genetics approaches, that non-genetic effects (i.e. permanent environment effects) underpin adaptive personality variation in this species. This study thereby confirms a key prediction of adaptive personality theory based on life-history trade-offs, and implies that selection may indeed favour the evolution of personalities in situations where individuals differ in future fitness expectations. PMID:23097506

Sensitivity to ocean acidification parallels natural pCO2 gradients experienced by Arctic copepods under winter sea ice

PubMed Central

Lewis, Ceri N.; Brown, Kristina A.; Edwards, Laura A.; Cooper, Glenn; Findlay, Helen S.

2013-01-01

The Arctic Ocean already experiences areas of low pH and high CO2, and it is expected to be most rapidly affected by future ocean acidification (OA). Copepods comprise the dominant Arctic zooplankton; hence, their responses to OA have important implications for Arctic ecosystems, yet there is little data on their current under-ice winter ecology on which to base future monitoring or make predictions about climate-induced change. Here, we report results from Arctic under-ice investigations of copepod natural distributions associated with late-winter carbonate chemistry environmental data and their response to manipulated pCO2 conditions (OA exposures). Our data reveal that species and life stage sensitivities to manipulated OA conditions were correlated with their vertical migration behavior and with their natural exposures to different pCO2 ranges. Vertically migrating adult Calanus spp. crossed a pCO2 range of >140 μatm daily and showed only minor responses to manipulated high CO2. Oithona similis, which remained in the surface waters and experienced a pCO2 range of <75 μatm, showed significantly reduced adult and nauplii survival in high CO2 experiments. These results support the relatively untested hypothesis that the natural range of pCO2 experienced by an organism determines its sensitivity to future OA and highlight that the globally important copepod species, Oithona spp., may be more sensitive to future high pCO2 conditions compared with the more widely studied larger copepods. PMID:24297880

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Financial expectations of first-year veterinary students.

PubMed

Lim, Christine C; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Root Kustritz, Margaret V; Molgaard, Laura K; Lee, David

2015-07-15

To assess student awareness of the financial costs of pursuing a veterinary education, to determine student expectations for financial returns of a veterinary career, and to identify associations between student debt and factors such as future career plans or personality type. Survey. First-year veterinary students at the University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine. In 2013, prior to the first day of class, all incoming first-year students received an email invitation to complete an online survey. The survey contained questions about demographics, current financial situation, current debt, expected debt at graduation, expected annual income following graduation, intent to pursue specialty training, and Myers-Briggs personality type. 72 of 102 (71%) students completed the survey; 65 respondents answered all relevant questions and provided usable data. Student responses for expected debt at graduation were comparable to national averages for veterinary college graduates; responses for expected annual income following graduation were lower than averages for University of Minnesota veterinary college graduates and national averages. However, students predicted even lower annual income if they did not attend veterinary college. Expected debt and expected annual income were not correlated with factors such as personality type or future career plans. Results indicated that first-year veterinary students were aware of the financial costs of their veterinary education and had realistic expectations for future salaries. For typical veterinary students, attending veterinary college appeared to be financially worthwhile, given lower expected earnings otherwise.

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

2015-12-01

Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-01-01

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Self-regulation of goal setting: turning free fantasies about the future into binding goals.

PubMed

Oettingen, G; Pak, H; Schnetter, K

2001-05-01

Fantasy realization theory states that when people contrast their fantasies about a desired future with reflections on present reality, a necessity to act is induced that leads to the activation and use of relevant expectations. Strong goal commitment arises in light of favorable expectations, and weak goal commitment arises in light of unfavorable expectations. To the contrary, when people only fantasize about a desired future or only reflect on present reality, expectancy-independent moderate goal commitment emerges. Four experiments pertaining to various life domains supported these hypotheses. Strength of goal commitment was assessed in cognitive (e.g., making plans), affective (e.g., felt attachment), and behavioral terms (e.g., effort expenditure, quality of performance). Implications for theories on goal setting and goal striving are discussed.

The influence of an extended Atlantic hurricane season on inland flooding potential in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Monica H.; Cohen, Sagy

2017-03-01

Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20 % more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the southeastern United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. An analysis of the timing of tropical cyclones that impact these river basins found that most occur during the low-discharge season and thus rarely produce riverine flooding conditions. However, an extension of the current hurricane season of June-November could encroach upon the high-discharge seasons in these basins, increasing the susceptibility for riverine hurricane-induced flooding. Our results indicate that 28-180 % more days would be at risk of flooding from an average tropical cyclone with an extension of the hurricane season to May-December (just 2 months longer). Future research should aim to extend this analysis to all river basins in the United States that are impacted by tropical cyclones in order to provide a bigger picture of which areas are likely to experience the worst increases in flooding risk due to a probable extension of the hurricane season with expected global climate change in the near future.

A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

2017-12-01

Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

Filling the glass: Effects of a positive psychology intervention on executive task performance in chronic pain patients.

PubMed

Boselie, J J L M; Vancleef, L M G; Peters, M L

2018-03-24

Chronic pain is associated with emotional problems as well as difficulties in cognitive functioning. Prior experimental studies have shown that optimism, the tendency to expect that good things happen in the future, and positive emotions can counteract pain-induced task performance deficits in healthy participants. More specifically, induced optimism was found to buffer against the negative effects of experimental pain on executive functioning. This clinical experiment examined whether this beneficial effect can be extended to a chronic pain population. Patients (N = 122) were randomized to a positive psychology Internet-based intervention (PPI; n = 74) or a waiting list control condition (WLC; n = 48). The PPI consisted of positive psychology exercises that particularly target optimism, positive emotions and self-compassion. Results demonstrated that patients in the PPI condition scored higher on happiness, optimism, positive future expectancies, positive affect, self-compassion and ability to live a desired life despite pain, and scored lower on pain catastrophizing, depression and anxiety compared to patients in the WLC condition. However, executive task performance did not improve following completion of the PPI, compared to the WLC condition. Despite the lack of evidence that positive emotions and optimism can improve executive task performance in chronic pain patients, this study did convincingly demonstrate that it is possible to increase positive emotions and optimism in chronic pain patients with an online positive psychology intervention. It is imperative to further explore amendable psychological factors that may reduce the negative impact of pain on executive functioning. We demonstrated that an Internet-based positive psychology intervention strengthens optimism and positive emotions in chronic pain patients. These emotional improvements are not associated with improved executive task performance. As pain itself often cannot be relieved, it is imperative to have techniques to reduce the burden of living with chronic pain. © 2018 The Authors. European Journal of Pain published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Pain Federation -EFIC®.

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

Theory Can Help Structure Regression Models for Projecting Stream Conditions Under Alternative Land Use Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sickle, J.; Baker, J.; Herlihy, A.

2005-05-01

We built multiple regression models for Emphemeroptera/ Plecoptera/ Tricoptera (EPT) taxon richness and other indicators of biological condition in streams of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. The models were used to project the changes in condition that would be expected in all 2-4th order streams of the 30000 sq km basin under alternative scenarios of future land use. In formulating the models, we invoked the theory of limiting factors to express the interactive effects of stream power and watershed land use on EPT richness. The resulting models were parsimonious, and they fit the data in our wedge-shaped scatterplots slightly better than did a naive additive-effects model. Just as theory helped formulate our regression models, the models in turn helped us identify a new research need for the Basin's streams. Our future scenarios project that conversions of agricultural to urban uses may dominate landscape dynamics in the basin over the next 50 years. But our models could not detect any difference between the effects of agricultural and urban development in watersheds on stream biota. This result points to an increased need for understanding how agricultural and urban land uses in the Basin differentially influence stream ecosystems.

When should we expect microbial phenotypic traits to predict microbial abundances?

PubMed

Fox, Jeremy W

2012-01-01

Species' phenotypic traits may predict their relative abundances. Intuitively, this is because locally abundant species have traits making them well-adapted to local abiotic and biotic conditions, while locally rare species are not as well-adapted. But this intuition may not be valid. If competing species vary in how well-adapted they are to local conditions, why doesn't the best-adapted species simply exclude the others entirely? But conversely, if species exhibit niche differences that allow them to coexist, then by definition there is no single best adapted species. Rather, demographic rates depend on species' relative abundances, so that phenotypic traits conferring high adaptedness do not necessarily confer high abundance. I illustrate these points using a simple theoretical model incorporating adjustable levels of "adaptedness" and "niche differences." Even very small niche differences can weaken or even reverse the expected correlation between adaptive traits and abundance. Conversely, adaptive traits confer high abundance when niche differences are very strong. Future work should be directed toward understanding the link between phenotypic traits and frequency-dependence of demographic rates.

Broadening of divertor heat flux profile with increasing number of ELM filaments in NSTX

DOE PAGES

Ahn, J. -W.; Maingi, R.; Canik, J. M.; ...

2014-11-13

Edge localized modes (ELMs) represent a challenge to future fusion devices, owing to cyclical high peak heat fluxes on divertor plasma facing surfaces. One ameliorating factor has been that the heat flux characteristic profile width has been observed to broaden with the size of the ELM, as compared with the inter-ELM heat flux profile. In contrast, the heat flux profile has been observed to narrow during ELMs under certain conditions in NSTX. Here we show that the ELM heat flux profile width increases with the number of filamentary striations observed, i.e., profile narrowing is observed with zero or very fewmore » striations. Because NSTX often lies on the long wavelength current-driven mode side of ideal MHD instabilities, few filamentary structures can be expected under many conditions. Lastly, ITER is also projected to lie on the current driven low-n stability boundary, and therefore detailed projections of the unstable modes expected in ITER and the heat flux driven in ensuing filamentary structures is needed.« less

Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, P.

2015-12-01

There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.

PubMed

Descombes, Patrice; Wisz, Mary S; Leprieur, Fabien; Parravicini, Valerianio; Heine, Christian; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David; Pellissier, Loïc

2015-01-21

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Expectancy bias in anxious samples

PubMed Central

Cabeleira, Cindy M.; Steinman, Shari A.; Burgess, Melissa M.; Bucks, Romola S.; MacLeod, Colin; Melo, Wilson; Teachman, Bethany A.

2014-01-01

While it is well documented that anxious individuals have negative expectations about the future, it is unclear what cognitive processes give rise to this expectancy bias. Two studies are reported that use the Expectancy Task, which is designed to assess expectancy bias and illuminate its basis. This task presents individuals with valenced scenarios (Positive Valence, Negative Valence, or Conflicting Valence), and then evaluates their tendency to expect subsequent future positive relative to negative events. The Expectancy Task was used with low and high trait anxious (Study 1: N = 32) and anxiety sensitive (Study 2: N = 138) individuals. Results suggest that in the context of physical concerns, both high anxious samples display a less positive expectancy bias. In the context of social concerns, high trait anxious individuals display a negative expectancy bias only when negatively valenced information was previously presented. Overall, this suggests that anxious individuals display a less positive expectancy bias, and that the processes that give rise to this bias may vary by type of situation (e.g., social or physical) or anxiety difficulty. PMID:24798678

Differences by Sexual Orientation in Expectations About Future Long-Term Care Needs Among Adults 40 to 65 Years Old.

PubMed

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Gonzales, Gilbert; Shippee, Tetyana P

2015-11-01

We examined whether and how lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults between 40 and 65 years of age differ from heterosexual adults in long-term care (LTC) expectations. Our data were derived from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. We used ordered logistic regression to compare the odds of expected future use of LTC among LGB (n = 297) and heterosexual (n = 13 120) adults. We also used logistic regression models to assess the odds of expecting to use specific sources of care. All models controlled for key socioeconomic characteristics. Although LGB adults had greater expectations of needing LTC in the future than their heterosexual counterparts, that association was largely explained by sociodemographic and health differences. After control for these differentials, LGB adults were less likely to expect care from family and more likely to expect to use institutional care in old age. LGB adults may rely more heavily than heterosexual adults on formal systems of care. As the older population continues to diversify, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should work to ensure safety and culturally sensitive best practices for older LGB groups.

Differences by Sexual Orientation in Expectations About Future Long-Term Care Needs Among Adults 40 to 65 Years Old

PubMed Central

Gonzales, Gilbert; Shippee, Tetyana P.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether and how lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults between 40 and 65 years of age differ from heterosexual adults in long-term care (LTC) expectations. Methods. Our data were derived from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. We used ordered logistic regression to compare the odds of expected future use of LTC among LGB (n = 297) and heterosexual (n = 13 120) adults. We also used logistic regression models to assess the odds of expecting to use specific sources of care. All models controlled for key socioeconomic characteristics. Results. Although LGB adults had greater expectations of needing LTC in the future than their heterosexual counterparts, that association was largely explained by sociodemographic and health differences. After control for these differentials, LGB adults were less likely to expect care from family and more likely to expect to use institutional care in old age. Conclusions. LGB adults may rely more heavily than heterosexual adults on formal systems of care. As the older population continues to diversify, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should work to ensure safety and culturally sensitive best practices for older LGB groups. PMID:26378822

Boundary conditions and unitarity in AdS/CFT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrade, Tomas

This thesis investigates various issues regarding unitarity in the context of Anti-de Sitter/Conformal Field theory (AdS/CFT) dualities. When the boundary duals are conformal, unitarity implies that there are lower bounds on the dimension of primary operators. Now, the AdS/CFT dictionary relates insertions of boundary operators to different choices of boundary conditions on the gravity side. Therefore, we expect the possible choices of boundary conditions in AdS to be restricted accordingly. Our first main goal will be to identify what are the pathologies that occur in the gravitational side of the duality when the boundary operators violate the pertinent unitarity bounds. In all the studied cases, we find that such bulk theories are ill-defined as expected, although unitarity is not nec- essarily violated. As our first example we consider a Klein-Gordon field in AdS, and extend the analysis to bosonic fields of spin 1 and 2 later on, with analogous results. Interestingly, it turns our that the bulk settings are pathological even in the absence of strict conformal invariance. Secondly, we argue that introducing a geometrical cut-off in spacetime along with the appropriate modifications of the boundary conditions yields the resulting (IR) theories well-defined. By study- ing in detail a Klein-Gordon field with boundary conditions that correspond to double-trace deformations, we are able to explicitly verify this claim. Finally, we discuss future research directions which include generalizations of AdS/CFT-like dualities and potential applications for condensed matter theory.

"Set in Stone" or "Ray of Hope": Parents' Beliefs About Cause and Prognosis After Genomic Testing of Children Diagnosed with ASD.

PubMed

Reiff, Marian; Bugos, Eva; Giarelli, Ellen; Bernhardt, Barbara A; Spinner, Nancy B; Sankar, Pamela L; Mulchandani, Surabhi

2017-05-01

Despite increasing utilization of chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) for autism spectrum disorders (ASD), limited information exists about how results influence parents' beliefs about etiology and prognosis. We conducted in-depth interviews and surveys with 57 parents of children with ASD who received CMA results categorized as pathogenic, negative or variant of uncertain significance. Parents tended to incorporate their child's CMA results within their existing beliefs about the etiology of ASD, regardless of CMA result. However, parents' expectations for the future tended to differ depending on results; those who received genetic confirmation for their children's ASD expressed a sense of concreteness, acceptance and permanence of the condition. Some parents expressed hope for future biomedical treatments as a result of genetic research.

Recent development in modeling and analysis of functionally graded materials and structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Ankit; Talha, Mohammad

2015-11-01

In this article, an extensive review related to the structural response of the functionally graded materials (FGMs) and structures have been presented. These are high technology materials developed by a group scientist in the late 1980's in Japan. The emphasis has been made here, to present the structural characteristics of FGMs plates/shells under thermo-electro-mechanical loadings under various boundary and environmental conditions. This paper also provides an overview of different fabrication procedures and the future research directions which is required to implement these materials in the design and analysis appropriately. The expected outcome of present review can be treated as milestone for future studies in the area of high technology materials and structures, and would be definitely advantageous for the researchers, scientists, and designers working in this field.

Medical Grade Water Generation for Intravenous Fluid Production on Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niederhaus, Charles E.; Barlow, Karen L.; Griffin, DeVon W.; Miller, Fletcher J.

2008-01-01

This document describes the intravenous (IV) fluids requirements for medical care during NASA s future Exploration class missions. It further discusses potential methods for generating such fluids and the challenges associated with different fluid generation technologies. The current Exploration baseline mission profiles are introduced, potential medical conditions described and evaluated for fluidic needs, and operational issues assessed. Conclusions on the fluid volume requirements are presented, and the feasibility of various fluid generation options are discussed. A separate report will document a more complete trade study on the options to provide the required fluids.At the time this document was developed, NASA had not yet determined requirements for medical care during Exploration missions. As a result, this study was based on the current requirements for care onboard the International Space Station (ISS). While we expect that medical requirements will be different for Exploration missions, this document will provide a useful baseline for not only developing hardware to generate medical water for injection (WFI), but as a foundation for meeting future requirements. As a final note, we expect WFI requirements for Exploration will be higher than for ISS care, and system capacity may well need to be higher than currently specified.

Economic feasibility of the sugar beet-to-ethylene value chain.

PubMed

Althoff, Jeroen; Biesheuvel, Kees; De Kok, Ad; Pelt, Henk; Ruitenbeek, Matthijs; Spork, Ger; Tange, Jan; Wevers, Ronald

2013-09-01

As part of a long-term strategy toward renewable feedstock, a feasibility study into options for the production of bioethylene by integrating the sugar beet-to-ethanol-to-ethylene value chain. Seven business cases were studied and tested for actual economic feasibility of alternative sugar-to-ethanol-to-ethylene routes in comparison to fossil-fuel alternatives. An elaborate model was developed to assess the relevant operational and financial aspects of each business case. The calculations indicate that bioethylene from sugar beet is not commercially viable under current market conditions. In light of expected global energy and feedstock prices it is also reasonable to expect that this will not change in the near future. To consider biorenewable sources as starting material, they need to be low in cost (compared to sugar beets) and also require less capital and energy-intensive methods for the conversion to chemicals. In general, European sugar prices will be too high for many chemical applications. Future efforts for in sugar-to-chemicals routes should, therefore, focus on integrated process routes and process intensification and/or on products that contain a significant part of the original carbohydrate backbone. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Stem cell roadmap - The industrial point of view.

PubMed

Elzaabi, Mazen; Thevenin, Agnès; Lirsac, Pierre-Noël

2017-01-01

CELLforCURE is a French Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) dedicated to industrialization and process development for routine manufacturing, GMP manufacturing for clinical and commercial batches and regulatory services and associated logistics. CELLforCURE is a subsidiary of LFB Group.Stem cells fields of application gather cell and gene therapy as well as tissue engineering. According to VisionGain survey, cell therapy medicinal products will remain predominant in the future.Clinical trials are sponsored either by universities or private companies. Most of clinical trials are performed in oncology (53%). More than 100 clinical trials are currently performed in France, involving 36 products in clinical phases II or II/III.Tomorrow's regenerative medicine will be organ reconstruction using scaffolds and bioprinting technologies. The expected applications in the near future could be skin, cornea, blood vessels, retina, urethra and trachea. There are still important issues to overcome: create the vasculature and neuron connection.Solutions are expected regarding I) fundamental biology, in particular better understanding of IPS behavior and metabolism, precursor differentiation conditions, sustainability of induced genetic changes, II) technical approaches which involves injectable preservation medium, high density cells and centrifugation system.

Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge underscores the Schlaepfer et al. Future regeneration potential of big sagebrush potential futility of efforts to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggest a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.

Comonotonic bounds on the survival probabilities in the Lee-Carter model for mortality projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denuit, Michel; Dhaene, Jan

2007-06-01

In the Lee-Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, value-at-risk or conditional tail expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in the increasing convex (or stop-loss) sense on these random survival probabilities. These bounds are obtained with the help of comonotonic upper and lower bounds on sums of correlated random variables.

Testing of Sapphire Optical Fiber and Sensors in Intense Radiation Fields When Subjected to Very High Temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blue, Thomas; Windl, Wolfgang

The primary objective of this project was to determine the optical attenuation and signal degradation of sapphire optical fibers & sensors (temperature & strain), in-situ, operating at temperatures up to 1500°C during reactor irradiation through experiments and modeling. The results will determine the feasibility of extending sapphire optical fiber-based instrumentation to extremely high temperature radiation environments. This research will pave the way for future testing of sapphire optical fibers and fiber-based sensors under conditions expected in advanced high temperature reactors.

Shame and guilt and their relationship to positive expectations and anger expressiveness.

PubMed

Lutwak, N; Panish, J B; Ferrari, J R; Razzino, B E

2001-01-01

College students (174 females, 91 males) completed measures of shame, guilt, expectations for future success, and styles of anger expression. Significant gender differences were found in proneness for both shame and guilt, with young women exhibiting a greater propensity for shame and guilt than young men. For both females and males, however, shame-proneness was positively related to expressions of inward anger. Among males and females, guilt-proness was negatively related to outward anger, but positively related to anger control. For females, guilt-proness was also negatively related to expectations for future success. Multiple regression analyses indicated that for male and female late adolescents, the best positive predictor of shame-proneness was inward anger. Gender differences emerged in predicting guilt-proneness; greater anger control, lower outward anger, and lower expectations for future success significantly predicted this variable among females.

Test Expectation Enhances Memory Consolidation across Both Sleep and Wake

PubMed Central

Wamsley, Erin J.; Hamilton, Kelly; Graveline, Yvette; Manceor, Stephanie; Parr, Elaine

2016-01-01

Memory consolidation benefits from post-training sleep. However, recent studies suggest that sleep does not uniformly benefit all memory, but instead prioritizes information that is important to the individual. Here, we examined the effect of test expectation on memory consolidation across sleep and wakefulness. Following reports that information with strong “future relevance” is preferentially consolidated during sleep, we hypothesized that test expectation would enhance memory consolidation across a period of sleep, but not across wakefulness. To the contrary, we found that expectation of a future test enhanced memory for both spatial and motor learning, but that this effect was equivalent across both wake and sleep retention intervals. These observations differ from those of least two prior studies, and fail to support the hypothesis that the “future relevance” of learned material moderates its consolidation selectively during sleep. PMID:27760193

CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine

2015-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.

Water surface elevation from the upcoming SWOT mission under different flows conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domeneghetti, Alessio; Schumann, Guy J. P.; Wei, Rui; Frasson, Renato P. M.; Durand, Michael; Pavelsky, Tamlin; Castellarin, Attilio; Brath, Armando

2017-04-01

The upcoming SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite mission will provide unprecedented bi-dimensional observations of terrestrial water surface heights along rivers wider than 100m. Despite the literature reports several activities showing possible uses of SWOT products, potential and limitations of satellite observations still remain poorly understood and investigated. We present one of the first analyses regarding the spatial observation of water surface elevation expected from SWOT for a 140 km reach of the middle-lower portion of the Po River, in Northern Italy. The river stretch is characterized by a main channel varying from 100-500 m in width and a floodplain delimited by a system of major embankments that can be as wide as 5 km. The reconstruction of the hydraulic behavior of the Po River is performed by means of a quasi-2D model built with detailed topographic and bathymetric information (LiDAR, 2m resolution), while the simulation of remotely sensed hydrometric data is performed with a SWOT simulator that mimics the satellite sensor characteristics. Referring to water surface elevations associated with different flow conditions (maximum, minimum and average flow) this work characterizes the spatial observations provided by SWOT and highlights the strengths and limitations of the expected products. The analysis provides a robust reference for spatial water observations that will be available from SWOT and assesses possible effects of river embankments, river width and river topography under different hydraulic conditions. Results of the study characterize the expected accuracy of the upcoming SWOT mission and provide additional insights towards the appropriate exploitation of future hydrological observations.

Shell Condition and Survival of Puget Sound Pteropods Are Impaired by Ocean Acidification Conditions

PubMed Central

Busch, D. Shallin; Maher, Michael; Thibodeau, Patricia; McElhany, Paul

2014-01-01

We tested whether the thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina from Puget Sound, an urbanized estuary in the northwest continental US, experiences shell dissolution and altered mortality rates when exposed to the high CO2, low aragonite saturation state (Ωa) conditions that occur in Puget Sound and the northeast Pacific Ocean. Five, week-long experiments were conducted in which we incubated pteropods collected from Puget Sound in four carbon chemistry conditions: current summer surface (∼460–500 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.59), current deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼760 and ∼1600–1700 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.17 and 0.56), and future deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼2800–3400 µatm CO2, Ωa≈0.28). We measured shell condition using a scoring regime of five shell characteristics that capture different aspects of shell dissolution. We characterized carbon chemistry conditions in statistical analyses with Ωa, and conducted analyses considering Ωa both as a continuous dataset and as discrete treatments. Shell dissolution increased linearly as aragonite saturation state decreased. Discrete treatment comparisons indicate that shell dissolution was greater in undersaturated treatments compared to oversaturated treatments. Survival increased linearly with aragonite saturation state, though discrete treatment comparisons indicated that survival was similar in all but the lowest saturation state treatment. These results indicate that, under starvation conditions, pteropod survival may not be greatly affected by current and expected near-future aragonite saturation state in the NE Pacific, but shell dissolution may. Given that subsurface waters in Puget Sound’s main basin are undersaturated with respect to aragonite in the winter and can be undersaturated in the summer, the condition and persistence of the species in this estuary warrants further study. PMID:25162395

Shell condition and survival of Puget Sound pteropods are impaired by ocean acidification conditions.

PubMed

Busch, D Shallin; Maher, Michael; Thibodeau, Patricia; McElhany, Paul

2014-01-01

We tested whether the thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina from Puget Sound, an urbanized estuary in the northwest continental US, experiences shell dissolution and altered mortality rates when exposed to the high CO2, low aragonite saturation state (Ωa) conditions that occur in Puget Sound and the northeast Pacific Ocean. Five, week-long experiments were conducted in which we incubated pteropods collected from Puget Sound in four carbon chemistry conditions: current summer surface (∼460-500 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.59), current deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼760 and ∼1600-1700 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.17 and 0.56), and future deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼2800-3400 µatm CO2, Ωa≈0.28). We measured shell condition using a scoring regime of five shell characteristics that capture different aspects of shell dissolution. We characterized carbon chemistry conditions in statistical analyses with Ωa, and conducted analyses considering Ωa both as a continuous dataset and as discrete treatments. Shell dissolution increased linearly as aragonite saturation state decreased. Discrete treatment comparisons indicate that shell dissolution was greater in undersaturated treatments compared to oversaturated treatments. Survival increased linearly with aragonite saturation state, though discrete treatment comparisons indicated that survival was similar in all but the lowest saturation state treatment. These results indicate that, under starvation conditions, pteropod survival may not be greatly affected by current and expected near-future aragonite saturation state in the NE Pacific, but shell dissolution may. Given that subsurface waters in Puget Sound's main basin are undersaturated with respect to aragonite in the winter and can be undersaturated in the summer, the condition and persistence of the species in this estuary warrants further study.

Childhood inflammatory bowel disease: parental concerns and expectations.

PubMed

Day, A-S; Whitten, K-E; Bohane, T-D

2005-02-21

To document the concerns and expectations of parents of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) within the context of a multidisciplinary IBD clinic, and to highlight the importance of a holistic approach to the care of these children. The parents of 60 children with IBD were surveyed by mailed questionnaire. Parents were asked to provide details of their concerns regarding their child's condition and to express their expectations of medical care. In addition, enquiry was made in respect to the respondents' learning about IBD. Forty-six questionnaires (77%) returned. Fifty-two percent of the patients were male. Patients were aged a mean of 10.9 (+/-4.1) years and diagnosed at an average age of 2.1 (+/-1.8) years previously. The most common concerns expressed by the parents related to the side- effects of medications and the future prospects for their child. Overall, parents were satisfied with aspects of care within the IBD clinic but many suggested additional personnel such as counselors or educators should be available. Parents also reported the need for continuing education and easy access to up-to-date information. Parents of children and adolescents with IBD have many common concerns regarding their child's condition. On-going attention to holistic care, including psychosocial and educational elements for patients and families, is appropriate in the context of the chronic and unpredictable nature of IBD.

Childhood inflammatory bowel disease: Parental concerns and expectations

PubMed Central

Day, AS; Whitten, KE; Bohane, TD

2005-01-01

AIM: To document the concerns and expectations of parents of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) within the context of a multidisciplinary IBD clinic, and to highlight the importance of a holistic approach to the care of these children. METHODS: The parents of 60 children with IBD were surveyed by mailed questionnaire. Parents were asked to provide details of their concerns regarding their child’s condition and to express their expectations of medical care. In addition, enquiry was made in respect to the respondents’ learning about IBD. RESULTS: Forty-six questionnaires (77%) returned. Fifty-two percent of the patients were male. Patients were aged a mean of 10.9 (±4.1) years and diagnosed at an average age of 2.1 (±1.8) years previously. The most common concerns expressed by the parents related to the side- effects of medications and the future prospects for their child. Overall, parents were satisfied with aspects of care within the IBD clinic but many suggested additional personnel such as counselors or educators should be available. Parents also reported the need for continuing education and easy access to up-to-date information. CONCLUSION: Parents of children and adolescents with IBD have many common concerns regarding their child’s condition. On-going attention to holistic care, including psychosocial and educational elements for patients and families, is appropriate in the context of the chronic and unpredictable nature of IBD. PMID:15742408

Overactive bladder in the vulnerable elderly

PubMed Central

Wolff, Gillian F; Kuchel, George A; Smith, Phillip P

2014-01-01

Overactive bladder (OAB) is a common problem that may occur in individuals of all ages. It has a considerable impact on patient quality of life, and although moderately effective management strategies do exist, this condition often remains undiagnosed and untreated. OAB needs to be viewed as a symptom complex. Its presentation and management are complicated in the vulnerable elderly by the presence of baseline frailty and multiple coexisting chronic conditions. Furthermore, and beyond a simple understanding of symptomatology, providers must address patient goals and motivations as well as the expectations of caretakers. These multiple levels of perception, function, expectations, and treatment efficacy/risks must be tailored to the individual patient. While the vulnerable elderly patient may often have evidence of urinary tract dysfunction, OAB and urge urinary incontinence in this population must be understood as a multifactorial geriatric syndrome and viewed in the context of medical and functional baseline and precipitating risk factors. Expectations and goals must be tailored to the resources of vulnerable elderly patients and their caregivers, and care must be coordinated with other medical care providers. The management of OAB in the vulnerable elderly often poses significant management challenges. Nonetheless, with a thoughtful approach and an aim towards future research specifically for this population, significant reductions in morbidity and mortality long with enhancement in health-related quality of life are possible. PMID:25328867

Expectations of medical specialists about image-based teleconsultation - A qualitative study on acute burns in South Africa.

PubMed

Blom, Lisa; Laflamme, Lucie; Mölsted Alvesson, Helle

2018-01-01

Image-based teleconsultation between medical experts and healthcare staff at remote emergency centres can improve the diagnosis of conditions which are challenging to assess. One such condition is burns. Knowledge is scarce regarding how medical experts perceive the influence of such teleconsultation on their roles and relations to colleagues at point of care. In this qualitative study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 medical experts to explore their expectations of a newly developed App for burns diagnostics and care prior to its implementation. Purposive sampling included male and female physicians at different stages of their career, employed at different referral hospitals and all potential future tele-experts in remote teleconsultation using the App. Positioning theory was used to analyse the data. The experts are already facing changes in their diagnostic practices due to the informal use of open access applications like WhatsApp. Additional changes are expected when the new App is launched. Four positions of medical experts were identified in situations of diagnostic advice, two related to patient flow-clinical specialist and gatekeeper-and two to point of care staff-educator and mentor. The experts move flexibly between the positions during diagnostic practices with remote colleagues. A new position in relation to previous research on medical roles-the mentor-came to light in this setting. The App is expected to have an important educational impact, streamline the diagnostic process, improve both triage and referrals and be a more secure option for remote diagnosis compared to current practices. Verbal communication is however expected to remain important for certain situations, in particular those related to the mentor position. The quality and security of referrals are expected to be improved through the App but the medical experts see less potential for conveying moral support via the App during remote consultations. Experts' reflections on remote consultations highlight the embedded social and cultural dimensions of implementing new technology.

Expectations of medical specialists about image-based teleconsultation – A qualitative study on acute burns in South Africa

PubMed Central

Laflamme, Lucie; Mölsted Alvesson, Helle

2018-01-01

Background Image-based teleconsultation between medical experts and healthcare staff at remote emergency centres can improve the diagnosis of conditions which are challenging to assess. One such condition is burns. Knowledge is scarce regarding how medical experts perceive the influence of such teleconsultation on their roles and relations to colleagues at point of care. Methods In this qualitative study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 medical experts to explore their expectations of a newly developed App for burns diagnostics and care prior to its implementation. Purposive sampling included male and female physicians at different stages of their career, employed at different referral hospitals and all potential future tele-experts in remote teleconsultation using the App. Positioning theory was used to analyse the data. Results The experts are already facing changes in their diagnostic practices due to the informal use of open access applications like WhatsApp. Additional changes are expected when the new App is launched. Four positions of medical experts were identified in situations of diagnostic advice, two related to patient flow–clinical specialist and gatekeeper–and two to point of care staff–educator and mentor. The experts move flexibly between the positions during diagnostic practices with remote colleagues. A new position in relation to previous research on medical roles–the mentor–came to light in this setting. The App is expected to have an important educational impact, streamline the diagnostic process, improve both triage and referrals and be a more secure option for remote diagnosis compared to current practices. Verbal communication is however expected to remain important for certain situations, in particular those related to the mentor position. Conclusion The quality and security of referrals are expected to be improved through the App but the medical experts see less potential for conveying moral support via the App during remote consultations. Experts’ reflections on remote consultations highlight the embedded social and cultural dimensions of implementing new technology. PMID:29543847

Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis.

PubMed

DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine; Leff, Bruce; Anderson, Gerard F

2014-08-01

The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. A retrospective cohort study using single-decrement period life tables. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, and Alzheimer disease), and number of comorbid conditions. Comorbidity was measured as a count of conditions collected by Chronic Conditions Warehouse and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. Life expectancy decreases with each additional chronic condition. A 67-year-old individual with no chronic conditions will live on average 22.6 additional years. A 67-year-old individual with 5 chronic conditions and ≥10 chronic conditions will live 7.7 fewer years and 17.6 fewer years, respectively. The average marginal decline in life expectancy is 1.8 years with each additional chronic condition-ranging from 0.4 fewer years with the first condition to 2.6 fewer years with the sixth condition. These results are consistent by sex and race. We observe differences in life expectancy by selected conditions at 67, but these differences diminish with age and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency.

Is There a Downside to Anticipating the Upside? Children's and Adults' Reasoning About How Prior Expectations Shape Future Emotions.

PubMed

Lara, Karen Hjortsvang; Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen; Kramer, Hannah J

2017-11-24

Four- to 10-year-olds and adults (N = 205) responded to vignettes involving three individuals with different expectations (high, low, and no) for a future event. Participants judged characters' pre-outcome emotions, as well as predicted and explained their feelings following three events (positive, attenuated, and negative). Although adults rated high-expectation characters more negatively than low-expectation characters after all outcomes, children shared this intuition starting at 6-7 years for negative outcomes, 8-10 years for attenuated, and never for positive. Comparison to baseline (no expectation) indicated that understanding the costs of high expectations emerges first and remains more robust across age than recognition that low expectations carry benefits. Explanation analyses further clarified this developing awareness about the relation between thoughts and emotions over time. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Defining the Scope of Prognosis: Primary Care Clinicians' Perspectives on Predicting the Future Health of Older Adults.

PubMed

Thomas, John M; Fried, Terri R

2018-05-01

Studies examining the attitudes of clinicians toward prognostication for older adults have focused on life expectancy prediction. Little is known about whether clinicians approach prognostication in other ways. To describe how clinicians approach prognostication for older adults, defined broadly as making projections about patients' future health. In five focus groups, 30 primary care clinicians from community-based, academic-affiliated, and Veterans Affairs primary care practices were given open-ended questions about how they make projections about their patients' future health and how this informs the approach to care. Content analysis was used to organize responses into themes. Clinicians spoke about future health in terms of a variety of health outcomes in addition to life expectancy, including independence in activities and decision making, quality of life, avoiding hospitalization, and symptom burden. They described approaches in predicting these health outcomes, including making observations about the overall trajectory of patients to predict health outcomes and recognizing increased risk for adverse health outcomes. Clinicians expressed reservations about using estimates of mortality risk and life expectancy to think about and communicate patients' future health. They discussed ways in which future research might help them in thinking about and discussing patients' future health to guide care decisions, including identifying when and whether interventions might impact future health. The perspectives of primary care clinicians in this study confirm that prognostic considerations can go beyond precise estimates of mortality risk and life expectancy to include a number of outcomes and approaches to predicting those outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Water resource sensitivity from a Mediterranean perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Klein, J.; Archibald, J. A.; Walter, T.

2012-12-01

The water cycle in semiarid environments is intimately connected to plant-water interactions making these regions sensitive to both future climatic changes and landuse alterations. This study explores the sensitivity of water resource availability from a Mediterranean perspective using the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO) in Costa Navarino, Greece as a large-scale laboratory for developing and testing the potential resource impacts of various landuse/climatic trajectories. Direct measurements of evapotranspiration were combined with Penman-Monteith estimates to compare water vapor flux variability across the gradient of current management conditions found within the NEO landscape. These range from native, non-managed vegetation to historic, traditionally managed agriculture to modern, actively managed recreational lands. These management conditions greatly impact the vertical flux of water vapor in this semiarid landscape. Our evapotranspiration estimates were placed into a process-based modeling framework to characterize the current state of regional water resource availability and simulate future trajectories (and the associated uncertainties) in response to landuse/climatic changes. This region is quite sensitive with regards to water cycle modifications due to the anthropogenic redistribution of water within and across the landscape. Such sensitivity typifies that expected for much of the Mediterranean region, highlighting the NEO as a potential key location for future observation and investigation.

Efficiency in energy production and consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellogg, Ryan Mayer

This dissertation deals with economic efficiency in the energy industry and consists of three parts. The first examines how joint experience between pairs of firms working together in oil and gas drilling improves productivity. Part two asks whether oil producers time their drilling optimally by taking real options effects into consideration. Finally, I investigate the efficiency with which energy is consumed, asking whether extending Daylight Saving Time (DST) reduces electricity use. The chapter "Learning by Drilling: Inter-Firm Learning and Relationship Persistence in the Texas Oilpatch" examines how oil production companies and the drilling rigs they hire improve drilling productivity by learning through joint experience. I find that the joint productivity of a lead firm and its drilling contractor is enhanced significantly as they accumulate experience working together. Moreover, this result is robust to other relationship specificities and standard firm-specific learning-by-doing effects. The second chapter, "Drill Now or Drill Later: The Effect of Expected Volatility on Investment," investigates the extent to which firms' drilling behavior accords with a key prescription of real options theory: irreversible investments such as drilling should be deferred when the expected volatility of the investments' payoffs increases. I combine detailed data on oil drilling with expectations of future oil price volatility that I derive from the NYMEX futures options market. Conditioning on expected price levels, I find that oil production companies significantly reduce the number of wells they drill when expected price volatility is high. I conclude with "Daylight Time and Energy: Evidence from an Australian Experiment," co-authored with Hendrik Wolff. This chapter assesses DST's impact on electricity demand using a quasi-experiment in which parts of Australia extended DST in 2000 to facilitate the Sydney Olympics. We show that the extension did not reduce overall electricity consumption, but did cause a substantial intra-day shift in demand consistent with activity patterns that are tied to the clock rather than sunrise and sunset.

Program Benefits Guidance: Analysis of Benefits Associated with Projects and Technologies Supported by the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Warner, Ethan; Sun, Yongling

The Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technologies Program (ARFVTP) supports a wide range of alternative, low-carbon fuel and vehicle projects in California. This report focuses on two types of ARFVTP benefits. Expected benefits reflect successful deployment of vehicles and fuels supported through program projects. Market transformation benefits represent benefits resulting from project influences on future market conditions to accelerated technology adoption rates. Data collected directly from ARFVTP projects funded from 2009 to first quarter 2014 are used as inputs to the benefits analysis, where possible. Expected benefit estimation methods rely primarily upon project-level data and result in year single-pointmore » estimates within the 2011 to 2025 analysis period. Results suggest that the 178 projects evaluated for expected benefits, representing an investment of $351.3 million in ARFVTP funds, could result in a reduction in petroleum fuel use by 236 million gallons per year and greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 1.7 million metric tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) per year by 2025. Market transformation benefits are described as accruing in addition to expected benefits. They are inherently more uncertain and theoretical than expected benefits, and are therefore reported as high and low ranges, with results suggesting reductions of 1.1 MMTCO2e to 2.5 MMTCO2e per year in GHG reductions and 102 million to 330 million gallons per year in petroleum fuel reductions by 2025. Taking both benefit types into account, results suggest that ARFVTP projects have the potential to make substantial progress toward meeting California's long-term GHG and petroleum fuel use reduction goals. As additional project data become available and market success with alternative and renewable fuels and vehicles grows, the analytic framework relied upon to develop these estimates will become more rigorous and will have a greater capacity to inform future ARFVTP activities.« less

Embracing the Future: What Can Accounting Graduates Expect?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corkern, Sheree M.; Parks, Sandra B.; Morgan, Mark I.

2013-01-01

This article informs accounting educators and graduates about key issues in the accounting profession of today, which has entered a new age, and accounting educators and advisors, old and new, must be informed about future prospects for students and make students aware of what they can expect as accounting graduates. Passing this knowledge to…

Oxidative Stress and Digestive Enzyme Activity of Flatfish Larvae in a Changing Ocean

PubMed Central

Pimentel, Marta S.; Faleiro, Filipa; Diniz, Mário; Machado, Jorge; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Peck, Myron A.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Rosa, Rui

2015-01-01

Until now, it is not known how the antioxidant and digestive enzymatic machinery of fish early life stages will change with the combined effects of future ocean acidification and warming. Here we show that high pCO2 (~1600 μatm) significantly decreased metabolic rates (up to 27.4 %) of flatfish larvae, Solea senegalensis, at both present (18 °C) and warmer temperatures (+4 °C). Moreover, both warming and hypercapnia increased the heat shock response and the activity of antioxidant enzymes, namely catalase (CAT) and glutathione S-transferase (GST), mainly in post-metamorphic larvae (30 dph). The lack of changes in the activity of CAT and GST of pre-metamorphic larvae (10 dph) seems to indicate that earlier stages lack a fully-developed antioxidant defense system. Nevertheless, the heat shock and antioxidant responses of post-metamorphic larvae were not enough to avoid the peroxidative damage, which was greatly increased under future environmental conditions. Digestive enzymatic activity of S. senegalensis larvae was also affected by future predictions. Hypercapnic conditions led to a decrease in the activity of digestive enzymes, both pancreatic (up to 26.1 % for trypsin and 74.5 % for amylase) and intestinal enzymes (up to 36.1 % for alkaline phosphatase) in post-metamorphic larvae. Moreover, the impact of ocean acidification and warming on some of these physiological and biochemical variables (namely, lower OCR and higher HSP and MDA levels) were translated into larvae performance, being significantly correlated with decreased larval growth and survival or increased incidence of skeletal deformities. The increased vulnerability of flatfish early life stages under future ocean conditions is expected to potentially determine recruitment and population dynamics in marine ecosystems. PMID:26221723

Oxidative Stress and Digestive Enzyme Activity of Flatfish Larvae in a Changing Ocean.

PubMed

Pimentel, Marta S; Faleiro, Filipa; Diniz, Mário; Machado, Jorge; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Peck, Myron A; Pörtner, Hans O; Rosa, Rui

2015-01-01

Until now, it is not known how the antioxidant and digestive enzymatic machinery of fish early life stages will change with the combined effects of future ocean acidification and warming. Here we show that high pCO2 (~1600 μatm) significantly decreased metabolic rates (up to 27.4 %) of flatfish larvae, Solea senegalensis, at both present (18 °C) and warmer temperatures (+4 °C). Moreover, both warming and hypercapnia increased the heat shock response and the activity of antioxidant enzymes, namely catalase (CAT) and glutathione S-transferase (GST), mainly in post-metamorphic larvae (30 dph). The lack of changes in the activity of CAT and GST of pre-metamorphic larvae (10 dph) seems to indicate that earlier stages lack a fully-developed antioxidant defense system. Nevertheless, the heat shock and antioxidant responses of post-metamorphic larvae were not enough to avoid the peroxidative damage, which was greatly increased under future environmental conditions. Digestive enzymatic activity of S. senegalensis larvae was also affected by future predictions. Hypercapnic conditions led to a decrease in the activity of digestive enzymes, both pancreatic (up to 26.1 % for trypsin and 74.5 % for amylase) and intestinal enzymes (up to 36.1 % for alkaline phosphatase) in post-metamorphic larvae. Moreover, the impact of ocean acidification and warming on some of these physiological and biochemical variables (namely, lower OCR and higher HSP and MDA levels) were translated into larvae performance, being significantly correlated with decreased larval growth and survival or increased incidence of skeletal deformities. The increased vulnerability of flatfish early life stages under future ocean conditions is expected to potentially determine recruitment and population dynamics in marine ecosystems.

NIH disease funding levels and burden of disease.

PubMed

Gillum, Leslie A; Gouveia, Christopher; Dorsey, E Ray; Pletcher, Mark; Mathers, Colin D; McCulloch, Charles E; Johnston, S Claiborne

2011-02-24

An analysis of NIH funding in 1996 found that the strongest predictor of funding, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), explained only 39% of the variance in funding. In 1998, Congress requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) evaluate priority-setting criteria for NIH funding; the IOM recommended greater consideration of disease burden. We examined whether the association between current burden and funding has changed since that time. We analyzed public data on 2006 NIH funding for 29 common conditions. Measures of US disease burden in 2004 were obtained from the World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease study and national databases. We assessed the relationship between disease burden and NIH funding dollars in univariate and multivariable log-linear models that evaluated all measures of disease burden. Sensitivity analyses examined associations with future US burden, current and future measures of world disease burden, and a newly standardized NIH accounting method. In univariate and multivariable analyses, disease-specific NIH funding levels increased with burden of disease measured in DALYs (p = 0.001), which accounted for 33% of funding level variation. No other factor predicted funding in multivariable models. Conditions receiving the most funding greater than expected based on disease burden were AIDS ($2474 M), diabetes mellitus ($390 M), and perinatal conditions ($297 M). Depression ($719 M), injuries ($691 M), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ($613 M) were the most underfunded. Results were similar using estimates of future US burden, current and future world disease burden, and alternate NIH accounting methods. Current levels of NIH disease-specific research funding correlate modestly with US disease burden, and correlation has not improved in the last decade.

Theory of choice in bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks.

PubMed

Averbeck, Bruno B

2015-03-01

Decision making has been studied with a wide array of tasks. Here we examine the theoretical structure of bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks. These tasks move beyond tasks where the choice in the current trial does not affect future expected rewards. We have modeled these tasks using Markov decision processes (MDPs). MDPs provide a general framework for modeling tasks in which decisions affect the information on which future choices will be made. Under the assumption that agents are maximizing expected rewards, MDPs provide normative solutions. We find that all three classes of tasks pose choices among actions which trade-off immediate and future expected rewards. The tasks drive these trade-offs in unique ways, however. For bandit and information sampling tasks, increasing uncertainty or the time horizon shifts value to actions that pay-off in the future. Correspondingly, decreasing uncertainty increases the relative value of actions that pay-off immediately. For foraging tasks the time-horizon plays the dominant role, as choices do not affect future uncertainty in these tasks.

Professionalized Music Teacher Education: Swiss and French Students' Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Güsewell, Angelika; Joliat, François; Terrien, Pascal

2017-01-01

The aim of this research was to investigate preservice music teachers' expectations of their curriculum, namely: (a) What content do they expect in view of their future professional activity? (b) Are their expectations in line with the principles of professionalized teacher education? (c) Are there any differences between the expectations of Swiss…

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Expected changes in future agro-climatological conditions in Northeast Thailand and their differences between general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo; Goto, Shinkichi; Sawano, Shinji; Hasegawa, Toshihiro

2011-12-01

We have studied future changes in the atmospheric and hydrological environments in Northeast Thailand from the viewpoint of risk assessment of future cultural environments in crop fields. To obtain robust and reliable estimation for future climate, ten general circulation models under three warming scenarios, B1, A1B, and A2, were used in this study. The obtained change trends show that daily maximum air temperature and precipitation will increase by 2.6°C and 4.0%, respectively, whereas soil moisture will decrease by c.a. 1% point in volumetric water content at the end of this century under the A1B scenario. Seasonal contrasts in precipitation will intensify: precipitation increases in the rainy season and precipitation decreases in the dry season. Soil moisture will slightly decrease almost throughout the year. Despite a homogeneous increase in the air temperature over Northeast Thailand, a future decrease in soil water content will show a geographically inhomogeneous distribution: Soil will experience a relative larger decrease in wetness at a shallow depth on the Khorat plateau than in the surrounding mountainous area, reflecting vegetation cover and soil texture. The predicted increase in air temperature is relatively consistent between general circulation models. In contrast, relatively large intermodel differences in precipitation, especially in long-term trends, produce unwanted bias errors in the estimation of other hydrological elements, such as soil moisture and evaporation, and cause uncertainties in projection of the agro-climatological environment. Offline hydrological simulation with a wide precipitation range is one strategy to compensate for such uncertainties and to obtain reliable risk assessment of future cultural conditions in rainfed paddy fields in Northeast Thailand.

Health and vulnerability to poverty in Ghana: evidence from the Ghana Living Standards Survey Round 5

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background An understanding of the complex relationship between health status and welfare is crucial for critical policy interventions. However, the focus of most policies in developing regions has been on current welfare to the neglect of forward-looking welfare analysis. The absence of adequate research in the area of future poverty or vulnerability to poverty has also contributed to the focus on current welfare. The objectives of this study were to estimate vulnerability to poverty among households in Ghana and examine the relationship between health status and vulnerability to poverty. Method The study used cross section data from the Fifth Round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS 5) with a nationally representative sample of 8,687 households from all administrative regions in Ghana. A three-step Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimation procedure was employed to estimate vulnerability to poverty and to model the effect of health status on expected future consumption and variations in future consumption. Vulnerability to poverty estimates were also examined against various household characteristics. Results Using an upper poverty line, the estimates of vulnerability show that about 56% of households in Ghana are vulnerable to poverty in the future and this is higher than the currently observed poverty level of about 29%. Households with ill members were vulnerable to poverty. Moreover, households with poor hygiene conditions were also vulnerable to future poverty. The vulnerability to poverty estimates were, however, sensitive to the poverty line used and varied with household characteristics. Conclusion The results imply that policies directed towards poverty reduction need to take into account the vulnerability of households to future poverty. Also, hygienic conditions and health status of households need not be overlooked in poverty reduction strategies. PMID:22827954

Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad; Hall, Jim W.; Guillod, Benoit P.

2018-03-01

Risk-based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk reduction equals the marginal cost of achieving that benefit. However, this cost-benefit approach may not guarantee robustness under uncertain future conditions, for instance under climatic changes. In this paper, we expand risk-based decision analysis to explore possible ways of enhancing robustness in engineered water resources systems under different risk attitudes. Risk is measured as the expected annual cost of water use restrictions, while robustness is interpreted in the decision-theoretic sense as the ability of a water resource system to maintain performance—expressed as a tolerable risk of water use restrictions—under a wide range of possible future conditions. Linking risk attitudes with robustness allows stakeholders to explicitly trade-off incremental increases in robustness with investment costs for a given level of risk. We illustrate the framework through a case study of London's water supply system using state-of-the -art regional climate simulations to inform the estimation of risk and robustness.

Children's motivation in elementary physical education: an expectancy-value model of achievement choice.

PubMed

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin; Solmon, Melinda

2003-03-01

This study examined children's motivation in elementary physical education within an expectancy-value model developed by Eccles and her colleagues. Four hundred fourteen students in second and fourth grades completed questionnaires assessing their expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and intention for future participation in physical education. Results indicated that expectancy-related beliefs and subjective task values were clearly distinguishable from one another across physical education and throwing. The two constructs were related to each other positively. Children's intention for future participation in physical education was positively associated with their subjective task values and/or expectancy-related beliefs. Younger children had higher motivation for learning in physical education than older children. Gender differences emerged and the findings provided empirical evidence supporting the validity of the expectancy-value model in elementary physical education.

Exploring local adaptation and the ocean acidification seascape - studies in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, G. E.; Evans, T. G.; Kelly, M. W.; Padilla-Gamiño, J. L.; Blanchette, C. A.; Washburn, L.; Chan, F.; McManus, M. A.; Menge, B. A.; Gaylord, B.; Hill, T. M.; Sanford, E.; LaVigne, M.; Rose, J. M.; Kapsenberg, L.; Dutton, J. M.

2013-07-01

The California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), a temperate marine region dominated by episodic upwelling, is predicted to experience rapid environmental change in the future due to ocean acidification. Aragonite saturation state within the California Current System is predicted to decrease in the future, with near-permanent undersaturation conditions expected by the year 2050. Thus, the CCLME is a critical region to study due to the rapid rate of environmental change that resident organisms will experience and because of the economic and societal value of this coastal region. Recent efforts by a research consortium - the Ocean Margin Ecosystems Group for Acidification Studies (OMEGAS) - has begun to characterize a portion of the CCLME; both describing the mosaic of pH in coastal waters and examining the responses of key calcification-dependent benthic marine organisms to natural variation in pH and to changes in carbonate chemistry that are expected in the coming decades. In this review, we present the OMEGAS strategy of co-locating sensors and oceanographic observations with biological studies on benthic marine invertebrates, specifically measurements of functional traits such as calcification-related processes and genetic variation in populations that are locally adapted to conditions in a particular region of the coast. Highlighted in this contribution are (1) the OMEGAS sensor network that spans the west coast of the US from central Oregon to southern California, (2) initial findings of the carbonate chemistry amongst the OMEGAS study sites, (3) an overview of the biological data that describes the acclimatization and the adaptation capacity of key benthic marine invertebrates within the CCLME.

Relationships between expected, online and remembered enjoyment for food products.

PubMed

Robinson, Eric

2014-03-01

How enjoyable a food product is remembered to be is likely to shape future choice. The present study tested the influence that expectations and specific moments during consumption experiences have on remembered enjoyment for food products. Sixty-four participants consumed three snack foods (savoury, sweet and savoury-sweet) and rated expected and online enjoyment for each product. Twenty-four hours later participants rated remembered enjoyment and future expected enjoyment for each product. Remembered enjoyment differed to online enjoyment for two of the three products, resulting in the foods being remembered as less enjoyable than they actually were. Both expected enjoyment and specific moments during the consumption experience (e.g. the least enjoyable mouthful) influenced remembered enjoyment. However, the factors that shaped remembered enjoyment were not consistent across the different food products. Remembered enjoyment was also shown to be a better predictor of future expected enjoyment than online enjoyment. Remembered enjoyment is likely to influence choice behaviour and can be discrepant to actual enjoyment. Specific moments during a consumption experience can have disproportionately large influence on remembered enjoyment (whilst others are neglected), but the factors that determine which moments influence remembered enjoyment are unclear. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avolio, Elenio; Orlandi, Fabio; Bellecci, Carlo; Fornaciari, Marco; Federico, Stefano

2012-02-01

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree ( Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.

Birth Expectations of U.S. Women Aged 15-44.

PubMed

Daugherty, Jill; Martinez, Gladys

2016-10-01

Data from the National Survey of Family Growth •Among U.S. women aged 15-44 in 2013-2015, 50% expected to have a child in the future. •In 2013-2015, differences were seen by age in women's expectations to have a child in the future, regardless of the number of biological children they have had. •In 2013-2015, women on average expected to have 2.2 children in their lifetime. This estimate has decreased since 2002. •A smaller percentage of never married, not cohabiting women expected to have a child within 2 years from the time of interview (5%) compared with currently married (19%) and currently cohabiting (16%) women. •Eighty-two percent of women who already had two or more children did not expect to have more children in the future. Birth expectations have been shown to be related to sexual activity, contraceptive use, and fertility (1-3). While most U.S. women believe that having two children is ideal (4), this varies by sociodemographic characteristics. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), this report describes women's birth expectations, number of children expected, and when they expected their next child to be born. Data are shown by age, marital or cohabiting status, and number of children. Selected trends are also shown using NSFG data from 2002, 2006-2010, 2011-2013, and 2013-2015. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

A solid phase enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the antigenic detection of Legionella pneumophila (serogroup 1): A compliment for the space station diagnostic capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejtmancik, Kelly E.

1987-01-01

It is necessary that an adequate microbiology capability be provided as part of the Health Maintenance Facility (HMF) to support expected microbial disease events and environmental monitoring during long periods of space flight. The application of morphological and biochemical studies to confirm the presence of certain bacterial and fungal disease agents are currently available and under consideration. This confirmation would be facilitated through employment of serological methods to aid in the identification of bacterial, fungal, and viral agents. A number of serological approaches are currently being considered, including the use of Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) technology, which could be utilized during microgravity conditions. A solid phase, membrane supported ELISA for the detection of Legionella pneumophila, an expected disease agent, was developed to show a potential model system that would meet the HMF requirements and specifications for the future space station. These studies demonstrate the capability of membrane supported ELISA systems for identification of expected microbial disease agents as part of the HMF.

Well-being, life satisfaction and capabilities of flood disaster victims

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ootegem, Luc, E-mail: Luc.VanOotegem@UGent.be; SHERPPA–Ghent University; Verhofstadt, Elsy

The individual well-being of flood disaster victims is examined making use of two concepts: life satisfaction and perceived capabilities in life. These concepts are compared in two samples: a representative sample of Flemish respondents and a specific sample of people that have been the victim of a pluvial flood. Well-being as life satisfaction is found not to be related to past or expected future flooding, whereas well-being as capabilities in life is negatively related to both past and expected future flooding. - Highlights: • Well-being as life satisfaction is not related to past or expected future flooding. • Well-being asmore » capabilities in life is negatively related to flooding. • A disaster can scare people for the future because of the scars that it provokes. • Assess the impact of a disaster not only by monetary damage and life satisfaction.« less

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, D.H.

1988-10-01

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalentmore » (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%.« less

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, D.H.

1988-01-01

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Self-Presentation Strategies, Fear of Success and Anticipation of Future Success among University and High School Students.

PubMed

Kosakowska-Berezecka, Natasza; Jurek, Paweł; Besta, Tomasz; Badowska, Sylwia

2017-01-01

The backlash avoidance model (BAM) suggests women insufficiently self-promote because they fear backlash for behavior which is incongruent with traditional gender roles. Avoiding self-promoting behavior is also potentially related to associating success with negative consequences. In two studies we tested whether self-promotion and fear of success will be predictors of lower salaries and anticipation of lower chances of success in an exam. In study 1, prior to the exam they were about to take, we asked 234 students about their predictions concerning exam results and their future earnings. They also filled scales measuring their associations with success (fear of success) and tendency for self-promotion. The tested model proved that in comparison to men, women expect lower salaries in the future, anticipate lower test performance and associate success with more negative consequences. Both tendency for self-promotion and fear of success are related to anticipation of success in test performance and expectations concerning future earnings. In study 2 we repeated the procedure on a sample of younger female and male high school pupils ( N = 100) to verify whether associating success with negative consequences and differences in self-promotion strategies are observable in a younger demographic. Our results show that girls and boys in high school do not differ with regard to fear of success, self-promotion or agency levels. Girls and boys anticipated to obtain similar results in math exam results, but girls expected to have higher results in language exams. Nevertheless, school pupils also differed regarding their future earnings but only in the short term. Fear of success and agency self-ratings were significant predictors of expectations concerning future earnings, but only among high school boys and with regard to earnings expected just after graduation.

Self-Presentation Strategies, Fear of Success and Anticipation of Future Success among University and High School Students

PubMed Central

Kosakowska-Berezecka, Natasza; Jurek, Paweł; Besta, Tomasz; Badowska, Sylwia

2017-01-01

The backlash avoidance model (BAM) suggests women insufficiently self-promote because they fear backlash for behavior which is incongruent with traditional gender roles. Avoiding self-promoting behavior is also potentially related to associating success with negative consequences. In two studies we tested whether self-promotion and fear of success will be predictors of lower salaries and anticipation of lower chances of success in an exam. In study 1, prior to the exam they were about to take, we asked 234 students about their predictions concerning exam results and their future earnings. They also filled scales measuring their associations with success (fear of success) and tendency for self-promotion. The tested model proved that in comparison to men, women expect lower salaries in the future, anticipate lower test performance and associate success with more negative consequences. Both tendency for self-promotion and fear of success are related to anticipation of success in test performance and expectations concerning future earnings. In study 2 we repeated the procedure on a sample of younger female and male high school pupils (N = 100) to verify whether associating success with negative consequences and differences in self-promotion strategies are observable in a younger demographic. Our results show that girls and boys in high school do not differ with regard to fear of success, self-promotion or agency levels. Girls and boys anticipated to obtain similar results in math exam results, but girls expected to have higher results in language exams. Nevertheless, school pupils also differed regarding their future earnings but only in the short term. Fear of success and agency self-ratings were significant predictors of expectations concerning future earnings, but only among high school boys and with regard to earnings expected just after graduation. PMID:29163271

Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

2015-12-01

Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological impacts.

Cognitive correlates of anxious and depressive symptomatology: an examination of the Helplessness/Hopelessness model.

PubMed

Waikar, S V; Craske, M G

1997-01-01

Expectancies about future life events were assessed in anxious and depressed patients to test predictions of the Helplessness/Hopelessness model of anxiety and depression (Alloy, Kelly, Mineka, & Clements, 1990). In addition to expectancies for future events, patients from affective and anxiety treatment clinics completed anxiety and depression symptom ratings and positive and negative affects scales. Findings revealed partial support for the model. Negative outcome and helplessness expectancies were related specifically to depression. Cognitions regarding future positive events were interrelated and associated with symptom measures more strongly than were cognitions regarding negative events. Additionally, positive affects was more strongly related to depression than to anxiety symptom ratings. Implications and limitations of these findings are discussed.

The shadow of the future.

PubMed

Caldwell, J C

1984-01-01

This article focuses on the need for care in evaluating current demographic conditions in Australia and planning for the future. After noting that Australia is basically a nation of immigrants, the author reviews the country's demographic history. Comparisons with other countries and explanations for major changes are included. It is suggested that long-term fertility has probably stabilized just below replacement level. The changing composition of the immigrant population is also analyzed. The author accepts official 1983 population projections in which declines in the rate of population growth are predicted through the year 2021, although the actual population is expected to increase. In the last section, effects of this population growth on the environment are considered. It is concluded that there are no economic or environmental factors precluding continued immigration at the rate of 75,000-100,000 people per year.

Future prospects of health management systems using cellular phones.

PubMed

Kim, Hun-Sung; Hwang, Yunji; Lee, Jae-Ho; Oh, Hye Young; Kim, Yi-Jun; Kwon, Hyeon Yoon; Kang, Hyoseung; Kim, Hyunah; Park, Rae Woong; Kim, Ju Han

2014-06-01

Cellular phones enable communication between healthcare providers and patients for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases. However, few studies have examined the user-friendliness or effectiveness of cellular phone-based medical informatics (CPBMI) for healthcare. This study investigated the use of CPBMI to identify its current status within the medical field, advantages and disadvantages, practicability, clinical effectiveness, costs, and cost-saving potential. CPBMI was validated in terms of practicality and provision of medical benefits. It is critical to use CPBMI in accordance with the different features of each disease and condition. Use of CPBMI is expected to be especially useful for patients with chronic disease. We discussed the current status of the clinical use, benefits, and risks of CPBMI. CPBMI and information technology-based health management tools are anticipated to become useful and effective components of healthcare management in the future.

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Morino, Kiyomi; McAfee, Stephanie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.

2016-01-01

This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.

Anomaly-Induced Dynamical Refringence in Strong-Field QED

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N.; Hebenstreit, F.; Berges, J.

2016-08-01

We investigate the impact of the Adler-Bell-Jackiw anomaly on the nonequilibrium evolution of strong-field quantum electrodynamics (QED) using real-time lattice gauge theory techniques. For field strengths exceeding the Schwinger limit for pair production, we encounter a highly absorptive medium with anomaly induced dynamical refractive properties. In contrast to earlier expectations based on equilibrium properties, where net anomalous effects vanish because of the trivial vacuum structure, we find that out-of-equilibrium conditions can have dramatic consequences for the presence of quantum currents with distinctive macroscopic signatures. We observe an intriguing tracking behavior, where the system spends longest times near collinear field configurations with maximum anomalous current. Apart from the potential relevance of our findings for future laser experiments, similar phenomena related to the chiral magnetic effect are expected to play an important role for strong QED fields during initial stages of heavy-ion collision experiments.

User acceptance of mobile commerce: an empirical study in Macau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Ivan K. W.; Lai, Donny C. F.

2014-06-01

This study aims to examine the positive and negative factors that can significantly explain user acceptance of mobile commerce (m-commerce) in Macau. A technology acceptance model for m-commerce with five factors is constructed. The proposed model is tested using data collected from 219 respondents. Confirmatory factor analysis is performed to examine the reliability and validity of the model, and structural equation modelling is performed to access the relationship between behaviour intention and each factor. The acceptance of m-commerce is influenced by factors including performance expectancy, social influence, facilitating conditions and privacy concern; while effort expectancy is insignificant in this case. The results of the study are useful for m-commerce service providers to adjust their strategies for promoting m-commerce services. This study contributes to the practice by providing a user technology acceptance model for m-commerce that can be used as a foundation for future research.

Boon and Bane of Being Sure: The Effect of Performance Certainty and Expectancy on Task Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schindler, Simon; Reinhard, Marc-André; Dickhäuser, Oliver

2016-01-01

Previous research has suggested certainty to be an important factor when investigating effects of level of expectancies on future behavior. With the present study, we addressed the interplay of expectancy certainty and level of expectancies regarding task performance. We assumed that certain performance expectancies provide a better basis for the…

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover’s direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate–fire–fuels systems. PMID:28609467

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

Introducing the National Library for Health Skin Conditions Specialist Library.

PubMed

Grindlay, Douglas; Boulos, Maged N Kamel; Williams, Hywel C

2005-04-26

This paper introduces the new National Library for Health Skin Conditions Specialist Library http://www.library.nhs.uk/skin. The aims, scope and audience of the new NLH Skin Conditions Specialist Library, and the composition and functions of its core Project Team, Editorial Team and Stakeholders Group are described. The Library's collection building strategy, resource and information types, editorial policies, quality checklist, taxonomy for content indexing, organisation and navigation, and user interface are all presented in detail. The paper also explores the expected impact and utility of the new Library, as well as some possible future directions for further development. The Skin Conditions Specialist Library is not just another new Web site that dermatologists might want to add to their Internet favourites then forget about it. It is intended to be a practical, "one-stop shop" dermatology information service for everyday practical use, offering high quality, up-to-date resources, and adopting robust evidence-based and knowledge management approaches.

Multiple Comorbid Conditions among Middle-Aged and Elderly Hemophilia Patients: Prevalence Estimates and Implications for Future Care

PubMed Central

Khleif, Aroub A.; Rodriguez, Nidra; Brown, Deborah; Escobar, Miguel A.

2011-01-01

Introduction. Advances in hemophilia care and treatment have led to increases in the life expectancy among hemophiliacs. As a result, persons with hemophilia are reaching an older age and experiencing various age-related health conditions never seen before in this population. Aim. To determine the prevalence of comorbidities among middle-aged and elderly hemophilia A and hemophilia B patients. Methods. Retrospective chart review among all hemophilia patients, who attended the Gulf States Hemophilia and Thrombophilia Center. Results. All patients had at least one comorbid condition other than hemophilia, and the majority had between 3 and 6 comorbidities. The most common conditions identified were chronic hepatitis C, hypertension, HIV, chronic arthropathy, and overweight/obesity. Conclusions. Since persons with comorbidities are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require greater care in managing their health needs, caring for aging hemophiliacs is likely to pose various social and economic challenges for both patients and providers. PMID:21912745

Commercial Absorption Heat Pump Water Heater: Beta Prototype Evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geoghegan, Patrick; Ally, Moonis; Sharma, Vishaldeep

2016-10-14

The Beta version of the Commercial Absorption Heat Pump (CAHP) water heater was evaluated in the environmental chambers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Ambient air conditions ranged from 17 to 75 oF and inlet water temperatures ranged from 100 to 120oF in order to capture trends in performance. The unit was operated under full fire (100%) and partial fire (55%). The unit was found to perform at 90% of the project goal at the design conditions of 47oF ambient and 100oF water temperatures. The trends across the full range of environmental conditions were as expected for ambient air temperatures abovemore » 32oF. Below this temperature and for the full fire condition, frost accumulated on the evaporator coil. In future work a defrost strategy will be enabled, the unit will be thoroughly cleaned of an oil contamination and the rectifier will be reconfigured in order to meet the design goals and have a field test unit ready in early 2017.« less

Introducing the National Library for Health Skin Conditions Specialist Library

PubMed Central

Grindlay, Douglas; Boulos, Maged N Kamel; Williams, Hywel C

2005-01-01

Background This paper introduces the new National Library for Health Skin Conditions Specialist Library . Description The aims, scope and audience of the new NLH Skin Conditions Specialist Library, and the composition and functions of its core Project Team, Editorial Team and Stakeholders Group are described. The Library's collection building strategy, resource and information types, editorial policies, quality checklist, taxonomy for content indexing, organisation and navigation, and user interface are all presented in detail. The paper also explores the expected impact and utility of the new Library, as well as some possible future directions for further development. Conclusion The Skin Conditions Specialist Library is not just another new Web site that dermatologists might want to add to their Internet favourites then forget about it. It is intended to be a practical, "one-stop shop" dermatology information service for everyday practical use, offering high quality, up-to-date resources, and adopting robust evidence-based and knowledge management approaches. PMID:15854224

Paranormal belief and errors of probabilistic reasoning: The role of constituent conditional relatedness in believers' susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy.

PubMed

Rogers, Paul; Fisk, John E; Lowrie, Emma

2017-11-01

The present study examines the extent to which stronger belief in either extrasensory perception, psychokinesis or life-after-death is associated with a proneness to making conjunction errors (CEs). One hundred and sixty members of the UK public read eight hypothetical scenarios and for each estimated the likelihood that two constituent events alone plus their conjunction would occur. The impact of paranormal belief plus constituents' conditional relatedness type, estimates of the subjectively less likely and more likely constituents plus relevant interaction terms tested via three Generalized Linear Mixed Models. General qualification levels were controlled for. As expected, stronger PK beliefs and depiction of a positively conditionally related (verses conditionally unrelated) constituent pairs predicted higher CE generation. ESP and LAD beliefs had no impact with, surprisingly, higher estimates of the less likely constituent predicting fewer - not more - CEs. Theoretical implications, methodological issues and ideas for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling Forest Management Strategies for Hydrological Climate Change Adaptation in the upper Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Z.; Sun, N.; Wigmosta, M. S.; Hessburg, P. F., Sr.; Coleman, A. M.; Salter, B.

2017-12-01

Management of forest lands in the Upper Columbia River basin is necessary to ensure the sustainability of natural ecosystems and enhance protection and recovery of fish and wildlife populations. By 2030, summertime surface water demand is expected to significantly exceed supply in most years in many Upper Columbia tributaries; in some years, a portion of these tributaries will exceed supply even outside the summer months. Forest restoration (i.e., timber harvest, prescribed burning, thinning) reduces canopy cover and, subsequently, has been shown in many cases to increase snow accumulation and total runoff volume. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to predict hydrologic properties and changes associated with realistic forest restoration scenarios prescribed in high spatial detail (90 m) within snow-dominated watersheds of the upper Columbia under current and future climate conditions. We consider changes in hydrological processes related to snowpack, stream discharge, and water temperature. Model results suggest forest restoration will impact annual water yield under both current and future climate conditions and the impact of forest restoration on the timing of snowmelt and streamflow varies from year to year and is highly dependent on local meteorological conditions and particular forest restoration scenarios. Corresponding changes in water temperature will also be discussed.

Music cognition as mental time travel.

PubMed

Bailes, Freya; Dean, Roger T; Pearce, Marcus T

2013-01-01

As we experience a temporal flux of events our expectations of future events change. Such expectations seem to be central to our perception of affect in music, but we have little understanding of how expectations change as recent information is integrated. When music establishes a pitch centre (tonality), we rapidly learn to anticipate its continuation. What happens when anticipations are challenged by new events? Here we show that providing a melodic challenge to an established tonality leads to progressive changes in the impact of the features of the stimulus on listeners' expectations. The results demonstrate that retrospective analysis of recent events can establish new patterns of expectation that converge towards probabilistic interpretations of the temporal stream. These studies point to wider applications of understanding the impact of information flow on future prediction and its behavioural utility.

To Not Settle for Small Losses: Evidence for an Ecological Aspiration Level of Zero in Dynamic Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Pang, Bo; Blanco, Nathaniel J.; Maddox, W. Todd; Worthy, Darrell A.

2016-01-01

This work aimed to investigate how one’s aspiration level is set in decision-making involving losses and how people respond when all alternatives appear to be below the aspiration level. We hypothesized that the zero point would serve as an ecological aspiration level where losses cause participants to focus on improvements in payoffs. In two experiments, we investigated these issues by combining behavioral studies and computational modeling. Participants chose from two alternatives on each trial. A decreasing option consistently gave a larger immediate payoff, although it caused future payoffs for both options to decrease. Selecting an increasing option caused payoffs for both options to increase on future trials. We manipulated the incentive structure such that in the losses condition the smallest payoff for the decreasing option was a loss, whereas in the gains condition the smallest payoff for the decreasing option was a gain, while the differences in outcomes for the two options were kept equivalent across conditions. Participants selected the increasing option more often in the losses condition than in the gains condition, regardless of whether the increasing option was objectively optimal (Experiment 1) or suboptimal (Experiment 2). Further, computational modeling results revealed that participants in the losses condition exhibited heightened weight to the frequency of positive versus negative prediction errors, suggesting that they were more attentive to improvements and reductions in outcomes than to expected values. This supports our assertion that losses induce aspiration for larger payoffs. We discuss our results in the context of recent theories of how losses shape behavior. PMID:27246089

To not settle for small losses: evidence for an ecological aspiration level of zero in dynamic decision-making.

PubMed

Pang, Bo; Blanco, Nathaniel J; Maddox, W Todd; Worthy, Darrell A

2017-04-01

This work aimed to investigate how one's aspiration level is set in decision-making involving losses and how people respond when all alternatives appear to be below the aspiration level. We hypothesized that the zero point would serve as an ecological aspiration level where losses cause participants to focus on improvements in payoffs. In two experiments, we investigated these issues by combining behavioral studies and computational modeling. Participants chose from two alternatives on each trial. A decreasing option consistently gave a larger immediate payoff, although it caused future payoffs for both options to decrease. Selecting an increasing option caused payoffs for both options to increase on future trials. We manipulated the incentive structure such that in the losses condition the smallest payoff for the decreasing option was a loss, whereas in the gains condition the smallest payoff for the decreasing option was a gain, while the differences in outcomes for the two options were kept equivalent across conditions. Participants selected the increasing option more often in the losses condition than in the gains condition, regardless of whether the increasing option was objectively optimal (Experiment 1) or suboptimal (Experiment 2). Further, computational modeling results revealed that participants in the losses condition exhibited heightened weight to the frequency of positive versus negative prediction errors, suggesting that they were more attentive to improvements and reductions in outcomes than to expected values. This supports our assertion that losses induce aspiration for larger payoffs. We discuss our results in the context of recent theories of how losses shape behavior.

Higher Resolution for Water Resources Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumenil-Gates, L.

2009-12-01

The Earth system science community is providing an increasing range of science results for the benefit of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. In addressing questions such as reducing poverty and hunger, achieving sustainable global development, or by defining adaptation strategies for climate change, one of the key issues will be the quantitative description and understanding of the global water cycle, which will allow useful projections of available future water resources for several decades ahead. The quantities of global water cycle elements that we observe today - and deal with in hydrologic and atmospheric modeling - are already very different from the natural flows as human influence on the water cycle by storage, consumption and edifice has been going on for millennia, and climate change is expected to add more uncertainty. In this case Tony Blair’s comment that perhaps the most worrying problem is climate change does not cover the full story. We shall also have to quantify how the human demand for water resources and alterations of the various elements of the water cycle may proceed in the future: will there be enough of the precious water resource to sustain current and future demands by the various sectors involved? The topics that stakeholders and decision makers concerned with managing water resources are interested in cover a variety of human uses such as agriculture, energy production, ecological flow requirements to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services, or human cultural aspects, recreation and human well-being - all typically most relevant at the regional or local scales, this being quite different from the relatively large-scale that the IPCC assessment addresses. Halfway through the Millennium process, the knowledge base of the global water cycle is still limited. The sustainability of regional water resources is best assessed through a research program that combines high-resolution climate and hydrologic models for expected future scenarios (as in the IPCC ensembles) with appropriate observational data under current conditions in order to benchmark the models’ accuracy. Expected future changes in water availability could then be characterized and appropriate adaptation action designed in co-operation with the water use community. In situ observations of water cycle variables can also be used and developed together with remote sensing data from space to provide initial data for global seasonal or decadal forecasting and monitoring of global change in less well observed regions of the world.

Future road salt use in Switzerland: an example of an effective climate service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubler, Elias M.; Fischer, Andreas M.; Schlegel, Thomas H.; Liniger, Mark A.

2015-04-01

The application of salt is the predominant measure taken to enhance road safety in Switzerland by clearing the roads from snow or preventing frozen surfaces during winter. The need for road salt exhibits a strong interannual variability, according to Schweizer Salinen AG - the Swiss monopolist for production and distribution of road salt. These fluctuations are to a large extent a direct consequence of the year-to-year variability in winter climate. In the course of the 21st century, Swiss climate is projected to depart significantly from present and past conditions. By the end of the century, winter temperatures over Switzerland are expected to rise by about 2-4°C relative to the mean over the period 1980-2009, while winter precipitation may either increase or decrease based on ENSEMBLES regional climate model projections under the SRES-scenario A1B. Faced with these changes, Schweizer Salinen AG asked for an estimate of the expected future road salt use for designing their long-term business strategy. The study is based on climate change projections from the CH2011 initiative and later extensions thereof as well as monthly sales data of road salt from Schweizer Salinen AG. For the period 1997-2013, a linear relationship was derived between the average number of days with snowfall and the road salt amount sold over "saltation years" defined from October 1st to September 30th in the 26 cantons (provinces) of Switzerland. The ad-hoc linear relationship was applied to the climate change projections to obtain future salt use information in three future periods for the greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B, A2 and RCP3PD. We find that the expected future salt use is likely to be reduced by about 50% in 2045-2074 under the scenario A1B. Currently, the countrywide mean annual road salt use corresponds to about 220'000 tons. In a particularly snow-rich year, the company sells up to 400'000 tons. At the end of the century, following a pessimistic scenario such as A1B or A2, the long-term mean salt use may even drop below today's annual minimum of 70'000 tons.

Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

2016-04-01

It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on spatiotemporal variability of specific discharge in a boreal region, Abstract #H52B-07 presented at 2014 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 15-19 Dec. [Available at http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H52B..07K, last accessed 11 Jan 2016]. Teutschbein, C., T. Grabs, R.H. Karlsen, H. Laudon and K. Bishop (2015). Hydrological Response to Changing Climate Conditions: Spatial Streamflow Variability in the Boreal Region, Water Resour Res, doi: 10.1002/2015WR017337. [Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017337/abstract, last accessed 11 Jan 2016].

Fomenting Sickness: Nocebo Priming of Residents about Expected Wind Turbine Health Harms

PubMed Central

Chapman, Simon; Joshi, Ketan; Fry, Luke

2014-01-01

A nocebo effect hypothesis has been proposed to explain variations in where small minorities of exposed residents complain about noise and health effects said to be caused by wind farm turbines. The hypothesis requires that those complaining have been exposed to negative, potentially frightening information about the impact of proposed wind farms on nearby residents, and that this information conditions both expectations about future health impacts or the etiology of current health problems where wind farms are already operational. This hypothesis has been confirmed experimentally under laboratory conditions, but case studies of how this process can operate in local communities are lacking. In this paper, we present a case study of the apparent impact of an anti-wind farm public meeting on the generation of negative news media and the subsequent expression of concerns about anticipated health and noise impacts to a planning authority approval hearing in Victoria, Australia. We present a content analysis of the negative claims disseminated about health and noise in the news media and available on the internet prior to the hearing, and another content analysis of all submissions made to the planning authority by those opposing the development application. PMID:25566521

Armour Materials for the ITER Plasma Facing Components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barabash, V.; Federici, G.; Matera, R.; Raffray, A. R.; ITER Home Teams,

The selection of the armour materials for the Plasma Facing Components (PFCs) of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is a trade-off between multiple requirements derived from the unique features of a burning fusion plasma environment. The factors that affect the selection come primarily from the requirements of plasma performance (e.g., minimise impurity contamination in the confined plasma), engineering integrity, component lifetime (e.g., withstand thermal stresses, acceptable erosion, etc.) and safety (minimise tritium and radioactive dust inventories). The current selection in ITER is to use beryllium on the first-wall, upper baffle and on the port limiter surfaces, carbon fibre composites near the strike points of the divertor vertical target and tungsten elsewhere in the divertor and lower baffle modules. This paper provides the background for this selection vis-à-vis the operating parameters expected during normal and off-normal conditions. The reasons for the selection of the specific grades of armour materials are also described. The effects of the neutron irradiation on the properties of Be, W and carbon fibre composites at the expected ITER conditions are briefly reviewed. Critical issues are discussed together with the necessary future R&D.

Fomenting Sickness: Nocebo Priming of Residents about Expected Wind Turbine Health Harms.

PubMed

Chapman, Simon; Joshi, Ketan; Fry, Luke

2014-01-01

A nocebo effect hypothesis has been proposed to explain variations in where small minorities of exposed residents complain about noise and health effects said to be caused by wind farm turbines. The hypothesis requires that those complaining have been exposed to negative, potentially frightening information about the impact of proposed wind farms on nearby residents, and that this information conditions both expectations about future health impacts or the etiology of current health problems where wind farms are already operational. This hypothesis has been confirmed experimentally under laboratory conditions, but case studies of how this process can operate in local communities are lacking. In this paper, we present a case study of the apparent impact of an anti-wind farm public meeting on the generation of negative news media and the subsequent expression of concerns about anticipated health and noise impacts to a planning authority approval hearing in Victoria, Australia. We present a content analysis of the negative claims disseminated about health and noise in the news media and available on the internet prior to the hearing, and another content analysis of all submissions made to the planning authority by those opposing the development application.

Probabilistic Methodology for Estimation of Number and Economic Loss (Cost) of Future Landslides in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, Robert A.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

2008-01-01

The Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) presented in this report estimates the number and economic loss (cost) of landslides during a specified future time in individual areas, and then calculates the sum of those estimates. The analytic probabilistic methodology is based upon conditional probability theory and laws of expectation and variance. The probabilistic methodology is expressed in the form of a Microsoft Excel computer spreadsheet program. Using historical records, the PLACES spreadsheet is used to estimate the number of future damaging landslides and total damage, as economic loss, from future landslides caused by rainstorms in 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay region in California. Estimates are made for any future 5-year period of time. The estimated total number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region during any future 5-year period of time is about 330. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated number of damaging landslides (about 90), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated number of damaging landslides (5?6 each). Estimated direct costs from future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region for any future 5-year period are about US $76 million (year 2000 dollars). San Mateo County has the highest estimated costs ($16.62 million), and Solano County has the lowest estimated costs (about $0.90 million). Estimated direct costs are also subdivided into public and private costs.

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread.

Optical Measurement and Visualization in High-Pressure, High-Temperature, Aviation Gas Turbine Combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hicks, Yolanda R.; Anderson, Robert C.; Locke, Randy J.

2000-01-01

Planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF), planar Mie scattering (PMie), and linear (1-D) spontaneous Raman scattering are applied to flame tube and sector combustors that burn Jet-A fuel at a range of inlet temperatures and pressures that simulate conditions expected in future high-performance civilian gas turbine engines. Chemiluminescence arising from C2 in the flame was also imaged. Flame spectral emissions measurements were obtained using a scanning spectrometer. Several different advanced concept fuel injectors were examined. First-ever PLIF and chemiluminescence data are presented from the 60-atm Gas turbine combustor facility.

[Modern nursing work management trends: the case of cooperative companies].

PubMed

Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Muzi, Camila Drumond; Mauro, Maria Yvone Chaves

2004-01-01

This article introduces the issue of nursing work management from a theoretical and conceptual perspective by raising some implications for the management of organizations, as well as its impact on work relationships and, consequently, on the worker's health. The main results about ways and modalities of cooperative companies bring about the consideration that proposals of positive changes in the category run contrary to progress. Indecent work conditions, poor quality assistance and low compensation make up the main negative factors in this work process. Therefore, it is urgent to resume the discussion of what one expects from nursing for the future.

Application of Model Animals in the Study of Drug Toxicology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yagang; Miao, Mingsan

2018-01-01

Drug safety is a key factor in drug research and development, Drug toxicology test is the main method to evaluate the safety of drugs, The body condition of an animal has important implications for the results of the study, Previous toxicological studies of drugs were carried out in normal animals in the past, There is a great deviation from the clinical practice.The purpose of this study is to investigate the necessity of model animals as a substitute for normal animals for toxicological studies, It is expected to provide exact guidance for future drug safety evaluation.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

For better and for worse: the relationship between future expectations and functioning in the second half of life.

PubMed

Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Spalter, Tal; Kavé, Gitit; Shmotkin, Dov

2011-03-01

To examine age group differences in the relationship between future expectations about standards of living and physical, mental, and cognitive functioning in the second half of life. Data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (N=27,687, mean age=64.44). First, with increasing age, the expectation to improve (ETI) and the expectation to worsen (ETW) in standards of living became more independent of each other. Second, with increasing age, ETI was less strongly correlated with functioning whereas ETW was more strongly correlated with it. Third, with increasing age, the relationship between ETI and functioning was more strongly moderated by ETW, so that adaptive functioning was associated with expectations that no major change is to occur and with expectations for both growth and decline. Late-life positive and negative expectancies are less interdependent than they are in younger age, probably due to their stronger interaction when associating with functioning. Expectancies interact either to reflect an attempt to preserve the functional status quo (low expectancy to improve and to decline) or may signal a highly complex mental organization (high expectancy to improve and to decline).

For Better and for Worse: The Relationship between Future Expectations and Functioning in the Second Half of Life

PubMed Central

Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Spalter, Tal; Kavé, Gitit; Shmotkin, Dov

2011-01-01

Objectives. To examine age group differences in the relationship between future expectations about standards of living and physical, mental, and cognitive functioning in the second half of life. Method. Data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (N = 27,687, mean age = 64.44). Results. First, with increasing age, the expectation to improve (ETI) and the expectation to worsen (ETW) in standards of living became more independent of each other. Second, with increasing age, ETI was less strongly correlated with functioning whereas ETW was more strongly correlated with it. Third, with increasing age, the relationship between ETI and functioning was more strongly moderated by ETW, so that adaptive functioning was associated with expectations that no major change is to occur and with expectations for both growth and decline. Discussion. Late-life positive and negative expectancies are less interdependent than they are in younger age, probably due to their stronger interaction when associating with functioning. Expectancies interact either to reflect an attempt to preserve the functional status quo (low expectancy to improve and to decline) or may signal a highly complex mental organization (high expectancy to improve and to decline). PMID:21296870

Future Sex Educator Perceptions of Rural versus Urban Instruction: A Case for Community-Centered Sexual Health Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Christina L.; Jensen, Robin E.; Selzer King, Abigail

2014-01-01

Instructors of sexual health courses in rural areas face unique challenges as they are often forced to use school-based prevention curricula field-tested in urban areas. Research has yet to consider what future sex educators' regional expectations are for their profession and how those expectations might have an impact on the classroom. Drawing…

The Relations of Stressful Events and Nonacademic Future Expectations in African American Adolescents: Gender Differences in Parental Monitoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Michael; Mars, Dustin E.; Burns, Lateela J.

2012-01-01

Urban African American high school students (N = 206) completed a study to examine gender differences in parental monitoring and the effect on the relationship between exposure to stressful life events and nonacademic future expectations. Participant's ages range from 13 to 18 (M = 15.78, SD = 1.19). Participants reported high exposure to…

Adolescent Future Expectations of Work, Education, Family, and Community: Development of a New Measure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McWhirter, Ellen Hawley; McWhirter, Benedict T.

2008-01-01

The development and validation of a measure of adolescent future expectations associated with work, education, family, health, and church/community participation is presented. The 25-item measure was administered to a sample of 389 7th- to 12th-grade urban poor and working-class Chilean students. Results of an exploratory principal axis factor…

"Doesn't Everyone Want That? It's Just a Given": Swedish Emerging Adults' Expectations on Future Parenthood and Work/Family Priorities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frisén, Ann; Carlsson, Johanna; Wängqvist, Maria

2014-01-01

This study investigated Swedish emerging adults' expectations on future parenthood through interviews with 124 Swedish emerging adults who were not yet parents. Thematic analysis showed that most participants were sure they wanted to become parents, but not right now. First, they wanted a stable financial situation, a romantic relationship, and…

Hip Preservation Surgery Expectations Survey: A New Method to Measure Patients' Preoperative Expectations.

PubMed

Mancuso, Carol A; Wentzel, Catherine H; Ghomrawi, Hassan M K; Kelly, Bryan T

2017-05-01

To develop a patient-derived expectations survey for hip preservation surgery. Patients were eligible if they were undergoing primary hip surgery and were recruited in person or by telephone. The survey was developed in 3 phases. During phase 1, 64 patients were interviewed preoperatively and asked open-ended questions about their expectations of surgery; a draft survey was assembled by categorizing responses. During phase 2, the survey was administered twice to another group of 50 patients preoperatively to assess test-retest reliability and concordance was measured with weighted kappa values and intraclass correlations. All patients also completed valid standard hip surveys electronically. During phase 3, final items were selected, factor analysis was performed, and a scoring system was developed. In phase 1, 509 expectations were volunteered from which 21 distinct categories were discerned and became the items for the draft survey. In phase 2, the draft survey was completed twice, 4 days apart. In phase 3, all 21 items were retained for the final survey addressing pain, mobility, sports, resumption of active lifestyles, future function, and psychological well-being. An overall score is calculated from the number of items expected and the amount of improvement expected, and ranges from 0 to 100; higher is more expectations. For phase 2 patients, mean scores for both administrations were 82, Cronbach alpha coefficients were 0.88 and 0.91, and the intraclass correlation was 0.92. A higher score (i.e., greater expectations) was associated with worse hip condition measured by standard hip surveys (P ≤ .05). We developed a patient-derived survey that is valid, reliable, and addresses a spectrum of expectations. The survey generates an overall score that is easy to calculate and interpret and offers a practical and comprehensive way to record patients' preoperative expectations. Level II, prognostic study, prospective sample. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water and Land Limitations to Future Agricultural Production in the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, J. A. M.; Wimmer, F.; Schaldach, R.

2015-12-01

Countries in the Middle East use a large fraction of their scarce water resources to produce cash crops, such as fruit and vegetables, for international markets. At the same time, these countries import large amounts of staple crops, such as cereals, required to meet the nutritional demand of their populations. This makes food security in the Middle East heavily dependent on world market prices for staple crops. Under these preconditions, increasing food demand due to population growth, urban expansion on fertile farmlands, and detrimental effects of a changing climate on the production of agricultural commodities present major challenges to countries in the Middle East that try to improve food security by increasing their self-sufficiency rate of staple crops.We applied the spatio-temporal land-use change model LandSHIFT.JR to simulate how an expansion of urban areas may affect the production of agricultural commodities in Jordan. We furthermore evaluated how climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions may influence crop production. The focus of our analysis was on potential future irrigated and rainfed production (crop yield and area demand) of fruit, vegetables, and cereals. Our simulation results show that the expansion of urban areas and the resulting displacement of agricultural areas does result in a slight decrease in crop yields. This leads to almost no additional irrigation water requirements due to the relocation of agricultural areas, i.e. there is the same amount of "crop per drop". However, taking into account projected changes in socio-economic conditions and climate conditions, a large volume of water would be required for cereal production in order to safeguard current self-sufficiency rates for staple crops. Irrigation water requirements are expected to double until 2025 and to triple until 2050. Irrigated crop yields are projected to decrease by about 25%, whereas there is no decrease in rainfed crop yields to be expected.

Stochastic extreme downscaling model for an assessment of changes in rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves over South Korea using multiple regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lima, Carlos H. R.

2017-10-01

A conditional copula function based downscaling model in a fully Bayesian framework is developed in this study to evaluate future changes in intensity-duration frequency (IDF) curves in South Korea. The model incorporates a quantile mapping approach for bias correction while integrated Bayesian inference allows accounting for parameter uncertainties. The proposed approach is used to temporally downscale expected changes in daily rainfall, inferred from multiple CORDEX-RCMs based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, into sub-daily temporal scales. Among the CORDEX-RCMs, a noticeable increase in rainfall intensity is observed in the HadGem3-RA (9%), RegCM (28%), and SNU_WRF (13%) on average, whereas no noticeable changes are observed in the GRIMs (-2%) for the period 2020-2050. More specifically, a 5-30% increase in rainfall intensity is expected in all of the CORDEX-RCMs for 50-year return values under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Uncertainty in simulated rainfall intensity gradually decreases toward the longer durations, which is largely associated with the enhanced strength of the relationship with the 24-h annual maximum rainfalls (AMRs). A primary advantage of the proposed model is that projected changes in future rainfall intensities are well preserved.

At, with and beyond risk: expectations of living with the possibility of future dementia.

PubMed

Milne, Richard; Diaz, Ana; Badger, Shirlene; Bunnik, Eline; Fauria, Karine; Wells, Katie

2018-04-16

Biomedical research aimed at the development of therapies for chronic and late-onset conditions increasingly concentrates on the early treatment of symptom-less disease. This broad trend is evidenced in prominent shifts in contemporary dementia research. Revised diagnostic criteria and new approaches to clinical trials propose a focus on earlier stages of disease and prompt concerns about the implications of communicating test results associated with the risk of developing dementia when no effective treatments are available. This article examines expectations of the implications of learning test results related to dementia risk, based on focus group research conducted in the UK and Spain. It points to the extended social and temporal aspects of the dementia risk experience. Three key dimensions of this risk experience are elaborated: living 'at risk', represented in efforts to reduce risk and plan for the future; 'with risk', through vigilance towards cognitive health and earlier or prolonged contact with healthcare services; and finally, 'beyond risk' through a cessation of the self in its current social, legal and financial form. A virtual abstract of this paper can be viewed at: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_979cmCmR9rLrKuD7z0ycA. © 2018 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

Comparing Climate Change and Species Invasions as Drivers of Coldwater Fish Population Extirpations

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Vander Zanden, M. Jake; Magnuson, John J.; Lyons, John

2011-01-01

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25–70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change. PMID:21860661

From humble beginnings … the evolution of the FRACS (Urology).

PubMed

Pirpiris, Athina; Chung, Amanda S J; Rashid, Prem

2017-07-01

Surgery has a rich and colourful history dating as far back as, at least, the Neolithic period. There have been many advances in knowledge and technology, as well as changes to working conditions and public perception and expectations. The urology training programme is jointly managed by the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons and the Urological Society of Australia and New Zealand. Urological training in Australia and New Zealand has undergone a number of changes over the years. A PubMed search was performed to find articles related to surgical training and, more specifically, urological training in Australia and New Zealand. The search terms that were used included 'urology training', 'surgical training', 'Australian urology history' and 'New Zealand urology history'. This narrative review outlines the origin and history of this training programme and describes the changes that have led to the current model of urology training. It also relates some of the current and future challenges faced as the training programme continues to evolve in order to improve its ability to train future urologists to meet the needs of the community and to ensure public safety. The urological training programme has evolved a number of times in order to tackle the challenges presented by evolving technology, community expectation and the needs of the trainee. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.

PubMed

Sharma, Sapna; Vander Zanden, M Jake; Magnuson, John J; Lyons, John

2011-01-01

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.

Operation of hydropower generation systems in the Alps under future climate and socio-economic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2015-04-01

Alpine hydropower systems are an important source of renewable energy for many countries in Europe. In Switzerland, for instance, they represent the most important domestic source of renewable energy (around 55%). However, future hydropower production may be threatened by unprecedented challenges, such as a decreasing water availability, due to climate change (CC) and associated glacier retreat, and uncertain operating conditions, such as future power needs and highly fluctuating demand on the energy market. This second aspect has gained increasingly relevance since the massive introduction of solar and wind generating systems in the portfolios of many European countries. Because hydropower systems have the potential to provide backup storage of energy to compensate for fluctuations that are typical, for instance, of solar and wind generation systems, it is important to investigate how the increased demand for flexible operation, together with climate change challenge and fluctuating markets, can impact their operating policies. The Swiss Competence Center on Supply of Electricity (www.sccer-soe.ch) has been recently established to explore new potential paths for the development of future power generation systems. In this context, we develop modelling and optimization tools to design and assess new operation strategies for hydropower systems to increase their reliability, flexibility, and robustness to future operation conditions. In particular, we develop an advanced modelling framework for the integrated simulation of the operation of hydropower plants, which accounts for CC-altered streamflow regimes, new demand and market conditions, as well as new boundary conditions for operation (e.g., aquatic ecosystem conservation). The model construction consists of two primary components: a physically based and spatially distributed hydrological model, which describes the relevant hydrological processes at the basin scale, and an agent based decision model, which describes the behavior of hydropower operators. This integrated model allows to quantitatively explore possible trajectories of future evolution of the hydropower systems under the combined effect of climate and socio-economic drivers. In a multi-objective perspective, the model can test how different hydropower operation strategies perform in terms of power production, reliability and flexibility of supply, profitability of operation, and ecosystem conservation. This contribution presents the methodological framework designed to formulate the integrated model, its expected outcomes, and some preliminary results on a pilot study.

Sad mood promotes self-initiated mental contrasting of future and reality.

PubMed

Kappes, Heather Barry; Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Maglio, Sam

2011-10-01

Self-regulation by mentally contrasting a positive future with negative reality leads people to differentiate in their goal commitments: They commit to goals when expectations of success are high and let go when expectations of success are low. On the contrary, when indulging in the positive future or dwelling on negative reality, people fail to consider expectations of success and do not form selective goal commitments (Oettingen, Pak, & Schnetter, 2001). Whereas prior research has examined the effects of experimentally induced mental contrasting, we address sad mood as a contextual influence promoting self-initiated mental contrasting. Across various mood inductions, sad moods--which are associated with problem solving strategies--facilitated self-initiated mental contrasting more than neutral moods (Studies 1, 5) or happy moods (Studies 2, 3, 4, 6). Importantly, mood did not affect the relation between mental contrasting and selective formation of goal commitment (Studies 5, 6). The results suggest that sad moods aid in self-regulation by making people self-initiate goal commitments that are sensitive to their expectations of success.

Grape yield and quality responses to simulated year 2100 expected climatic conditions under different soil textures.

PubMed

Leibar, Urtzi; Pascual, Inmaculada; Morales, Fermín; Aizpurua, Ana; Unamunzaga, Olatz

2017-06-01

The influence of global warming on grape quality is a great concern among grapegrowers and enologists. The effects of simulated year 2100 expected CO 2 , temperature and relative humidity (RH) conditions (FCC; 700 µmol CO 2 mol -1 air, 28/18 °C day/night and 33/53% RH, day/night) versus the current situation (Curr; 390 µmol CO 2 mol -1 air, 24/14 °C and 45/65% RH); well-irrigated versus expected future water deficit and three soils with different clay contents (41, 19 and 8%) on yield and berry quality of grapevine cv. Tempranillo were evaluated. FCC shortened the time between fruit set and veraison and between fruit set and maturity by up to 7 and 10 days, respectively. This faster maturity led to higher must pH and tonality and reduced malic and tartaric acid concentrations, total anthocyanin concentration and colour intensity. Water deficit delayed ripeness for up to 9 days and reduced vegetative growth and malic acid concentration of grapes. However, this malic acid reduction did not occur with the clayey soils. These soils induced the lowest root fresh weight and berries with lower total anthocyanin concentration. Among the adaptation techniques to cope with the described effects on fruit composition, soil selection should be considered with attention in addition to irrigation practices. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

PubMed

Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

2015-08-01

• Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xin

Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no consensus has been reached on OPEC strategic behavior. In the third chapter, we are interested in the effects of supply-side market power on oil price dynamics in face of different demand shocks, and model the oil market as composed of a strategic dominant firm and several competitive fringe producers. In each period, the dominant firm makes decision while taking fringe's response into consideration. We consider two alternative pricing strategies for the dominant firm. Our results show that this dynamic strategic model improves the potential of dominant firm-competitive fringe model in fitting and explaining real world data. A regime switch after a permanent demand increase generates a time path for price that looks like the price movements in the recent years.

The Effects of Race, Ethnicity, and Mood/Anxiety Disorders on the Chronic Physical Health Conditions of Men From a National Sample

PubMed Central

Johnson-Lawrence, Vicki; Griffith, Derek M.; Watkins, Daphne C.

2013-01-01

Racial/ethnic differences in health are evident among men. Previous work suggests associations between mental and physical health but few studies have examined how mood/anxiety disorders and chronic physical health conditions covary by age, race, and ethnicity among men. Using data from 1,277 African American, 629 Caribbean Black, and 371 non-Hispanic White men from the National Survey of American Life, we examined associations between race/ethnicity and experiencing one or more chronic physical health conditions in logistic regression models stratified by age and 12-month mood/anxiety disorder status. Among men <45 years without mood/anxiety disorders, Caribbean Blacks had lower odds of chronic physical health conditions than Whites. Among men aged 45+ years with mood/anxiety disorders, African Americans had greater odds of chronic physical health conditions than Whites. Future studies should explore the underlying causes of such variation and how studying mental and chronic physical health problems together may help identify mechanisms that underlie racial disparities in life expectancy among men. PMID:23609347

Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

2016-04-01

Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions, but in other basins it is higher under historical conditions. Global changes may be an incentive to use valuation in operating rules in some basins. In other basins, the benefits of reservoirs management based on economic criteria are less pronounced; in this case, trade-offs could arise between implementing economic based operation policies or not. Given its generic nature and low data requirements, the framework developed could be implemented in other regions concerned with water scarcity and its cost, or extended to a global coverage. Water policies at the country or regional level could be assessed.

Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

PubMed

Alvioli, Massimiliano; Melillo, Massimo; Guzzetti, Fausto; Rossi, Mauro; Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia

2018-07-15

The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

2015-12-01

The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

Disaggregating from daily to sub-daily rainfall under a future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-04-01

We describe an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous fine-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric predictors representative of the future climate. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future conditions. When looking at the scaling from daily to sub-daily rainfall over the historical record, it was found that the relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rain falling over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature this effect was almost entirely eliminated, providing a basis for suggesting the approach may be valid when extrapolating sub-daily sequences to a future climate. The method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, and showed that when holding the total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of a short duration (6 minute) rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum one hour burst, and between 1.5% and 3.5% for the fraction of the day with no rainfall. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of precipitation in the future is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

Ocean Warming Enhances Malformations, Premature Hatching, Metabolic Suppression and Oxidative Stress in the Early Life Stages of a Keystone Squid

PubMed Central

Rosa, Rui; Pimentel, Marta S.; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Teixeira, Tatiana; Trübenbach, Katja; Diniz, Mário

2012-01-01

Background The knowledge about the capacity of organisms’ early life stages to adapt to elevated temperatures is very limited but crucial to understand how marine biota will respond to global warming. Here we provide a comprehensive and integrated view of biological responses to future warming during the early ontogeny of a keystone invertebrate, the squid Loligo vulgaris. Methodology/Principal Findings Recently-spawned egg masses were collected and reared until hatching at present day and projected near future (+2°C) temperatures, to investigate the ability of early stages to undergo thermal acclimation, namely phenotypic altering of morphological, behavioural, biochemical and physiological features. Our findings showed that under the projected near-future warming, the abiotic conditions inside the eggs promoted metabolic suppression, which was followed by premature hatching. Concomitantly, the less developed newborns showed greater incidence of malformations. After hatching, the metabolic burst associated with the transition from an encapsulated embryo to a planktonic stage increased linearly with temperature. However, the greater exposure to environmental stress by the hatchlings seemed to be compensated by physiological mechanisms that reduce the negative effects on fitness. Heat shock proteins (HSP70/HSC70) and antioxidant enzymes activities constituted an integrated stress response to ocean warming in hatchlings (but not in embryos). Conclusions/Significance The stressful abiotic conditions inside eggs are expected to be aggravated under the projected near-future ocean warming, with deleterious effects on embryo survival and growth. Greater feeding challenges and the lower thermal tolerance limits of the hatchlings are strictly connected to high metabolic demands associated with the planktonic life strategy. Yet, we found some evidence that, in the future, the early stages might support higher energy demands by adjusting some cellular functional properties to increase their thermal tolerance windows. PMID:22701620

Identifying outdoor thermal risk areas and evaluation of future thermal comfort concerning shading orientation in a traditional settlement.

PubMed

Huang, Kuo-Tsang; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas; Lin, Tzu-Ping

2018-06-01

The outdoor thermal environment is expected to be deteriorated under climate change. An approach of risk identification including assessment from aspects of thermal stress effect, people's exposure, and local's vulnerability were adopted to study a hot-and-humid traditional rural community located at Tainan, Taiwan. Layers of each aspect were either constructed by in-situ measurements or simulations. To evaluate the future thermal comfort changes by simulations, the prerequisite hourly climate data of three future time slices were produced. Prognostic simulation model, ENVI-met, in combination with diagnostic model, RayMan, were respectively used for identifying current spatial distribution of thermal stress and for assessing the future thermal comfort changes. High thermal risk area was identified by superimposing layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It revealed that because of the tourists' vulnerability to adapt local climate and the inflexibleness of choosing visiting time, it exhibited a high thermal stress at the Main Courtyard where its thermal comfort conditions will be deteriorated due to climate change. Furthermore, the thermal comfort conditions in various shading orientation were analyzed based on the changing climate in three future time slices, i.e. 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results show the area with shading in the East and West side is more comfort than in the North side. In hot season, shading in the West side contributes less PET increasing, especially in the afternoon period. The severest overheat problem (the physiological equivalent temperature, PET>40°C) at the Main Courtyard will increase from current 10% to 28% in 2071-2100 in terms of overheating occurrence frequency. The results of this study can be used as the guidelines for environment analysis before planning or redesign community. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J. P.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-12-01

An algorithm is developed for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous high temporal-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is to re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of temperature-based atmospheric predictors. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric temperature profile more representative of expected future atmospheric conditions. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically exhibiting higher rainfall intensity occurring over shorter periods within a day, compared with cooler seasons and locations. Importantly, by regressing against temperature-based atmospheric covariates, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach also may be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. An adjusted method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that when holding total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by a median of about 5% per degree for the maximum 6 minute burst, and 3.5% for the maximum one hour burst, whereas the fraction of the day with no rainfall increased by a median of 1.5%. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Endogenous modulation of low frequency oscillations by temporal expectations

PubMed Central

Cravo, Andre M.; Rohenkohl, Gustavo; Wyart, Valentin

2011-01-01

Recent studies have associated increasing temporal expectations with synchronization of higher frequency oscillations and suppression of lower frequencies. In this experiment, we explore a proposal that low-frequency oscillations provide a mechanism for regulating temporal expectations. We used a speeded Go/No-go task and manipulated temporal expectations by changing the probability of target presentation after certain intervals. Across two conditions, the temporal conditional probability of target events differed substantially at the first of three possible intervals. We found that reactions times differed significantly at this first interval across conditions, decreasing with higher temporal expectations. Interestingly, the power of theta activity (4–8 Hz), distributed over central midline sites, also differed significantly across conditions at this first interval. Furthermore, we found a transient coupling between theta phase and beta power after the first interval in the condition with high temporal expectation for targets at this time point. Our results suggest that the adjustments in theta power and the phase-power coupling between theta and beta contribute to a central mechanism for controlling neural excitability according to temporal expectations. PMID:21900508

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge, relative changes in runoff using predicted future climate conditions were estimated over different biophysical areas for the CONterminous U.S. (CONUS). Runoff was estimated using the Curve Number (CN) developed by the USDA Soil Conservation Service (USDA, 1986). A seamless gridded dataset representing a CN for existing land use/land cover (LULC) across the CONUS was used along with two different storm event grids created specifically for this effort. The two storm event grids represent a 2- and a 100-year, 24-hour storm event under current climate conditions. The storm event grids were generated using a compilation of county-scale Texas USGS Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data (provided by William Asquith, USGS, Lubbock, Texas), and NOAA Atlas-2 and NOAA Atlas-14 gridded data sets. Future CN runoff was predicted using extreme storm events grids created using a method based on Kao and Ganguly (2011) where precipitation extremes reflect changes in saturated water vapor pressure of the atmosphere in response to temperature changes. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship establishes that the total water vapor mass of fully saturated air increases with increasing temperature, leading to

Modeling College Major Choices using Elicited Measures of Expectations and Counterfactuals. NBER Working Paper No. 15729

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arcidiacono, Peter; Hotz, V. Joseph; Kang, Songman

2010-01-01

The choice of a college major plays a critical role in determining the future earnings of college graduates. Students make their college major decisions in part due to the future earnings streams associated with the different majors. We survey students about what their expected earnings would be both in the major they have chosen and in…

Career Info Quest: Using AASL Standards to Prepare Teens for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vent, Laura

2010-01-01

Any student will tell people that one question they've been asked repeatedly is "What do you want to be when you grow up?" From a young age, adults expect children to think about their future and to work toward a career goal. If teachers expect their students to be goal driven, career-oriented individuals, they need to provide them with ample…

Thinking Ahead: Improving Support for People with Learning Disabilities and Their Families to Plan for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Towers, Christine

2013-01-01

The increasing life expectancy of people with learning disabilities makes it imperative that families plan for the future. The number of people with learning disabilities over the age of 65 is predicted to double over the next two decades. The greatest increase in life expectancy will be amongst people with mild learning disabilities who will have…

Interpersonal Assessment of Future School Psychologists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dixon, Robert J.

The roles and expectations of school psychologists are expanding. Practitioners are increasingly being asked to move beyond the testing expectations to provide effective counseling and consultation interventions. Training programs are expected to create balanced, functioning practitioners who will make positive impacts on children's lives. This…

Exploring local adaptation and the ocean acidification seascape - studies in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, G. E.; Evans, T. G.; Kelly, M. W.; Padilla-Gamiño, J. L.; Blanchette, C. A.; Washburn, L.; Chan, F.; McManus, M. A.; Menge, B. A.; Gaylord, B.; Hill, T. M.; Sanford, E.; LaVigne, M.; Rose, J. M.; Kapsenberg, L.; Dutton, J. M.

2014-02-01

The California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), a temperate marine region dominated by episodic upwelling, is predicted to experience rapid environmental change in the future due to ocean acidification. The aragonite saturation state within the California Current System is predicted to decrease in the future with near-permanent undersaturation conditions expected by the year 2050. Thus, the CCLME is a critical region to study due to the rapid rate of environmental change that resident organisms will experience and because of the economic and societal value of this coastal region. Recent efforts by a research consortium - the Ocean Margin Ecosystems Group for Acidification Studies (OMEGAS) - has begun to characterize a portion of the CCLME; both describing the spatial mosaic of pH in coastal waters and examining the responses of key calcification-dependent benthic marine organisms to natural variation in pH and to changes in carbonate chemistry that are expected in the coming decades. In this review, we present the OMEGAS strategy of co-locating sensors and oceanographic observations with biological studies on benthic marine invertebrates, specifically measurements of functional traits such as calcification-related processes and genetic variation in populations that are locally adapted to conditions in a particular region of the coast. Highlighted in this contribution are (1) the OMEGAS sensor network that spans the west coast of the US from central Oregon to southern California, (2) initial findings of the carbonate chemistry amongst the OMEGAS study sites, and (3) an overview of the biological data that describes the acclimatization and the adaptation capacity of key benthic marine invertebrates within the CCLME.

Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Walker, John F.; Kenow, Kevin P.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Garrison, Paul J.; Hanson, Paul C.; Hunt, Randall J.

2013-01-01

F statewide, and an increase in precipitation of 1”–2”. However, summer precipitation in the northern part of the state is expected to be less and winter precipitation will be greater. By the end of the 21st century, the magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to intensify. Such climatic changes have altered, and would further alter hydrological, chemical, and physical properties of inland lakes. Lake-dependent wildlife sensitive to changes in water quality, are particularly susceptible to lake quality-associated habitat changes and are likely to suffer restrictions to current breeding distributions under some climate change scenarios. We have selected the common loon (Gavia immer) to serve as a sentinel lake-dependent piscivorous species to be used in the development of a template for linking primary lake-dependent biota endpoints (e.g., decline in productivity and/or breeding range contraction) to important lake quality indicators. In the current project, we evaluate how changes in freshwater habitat quality (specifically lake clarity) may impact common loon lake occupancy in Wisconsin under detailed climate-change scenarios. In addition, we employ simple land-use/land cover and habitat scenarios to illustrate the potential interaction of climate and land-use/land cover effects. The methods employed here provide a template for studies where integration of physical and biotic models is used to project future conditions under various climate and land use change scenarios. Findings presented here project the future conditions of lakes and loons within an important watershed in northern Wisconsin – of importance to water resource managers and state citizens alike.

Reproductive investment when mate quality varies: differential allocation versus reproductive compensation.

PubMed

Harris, W Edwin; Uller, Tobias

2009-04-27

Reproductive investment decisions form an integral part of life-history biology. Selection frequently favours plasticity in investment that can generate maternal effects on offspring development. For example, if females differentially allocate resources based on mate attractiveness or quality, this can create a non-genetic link between mate attractiveness and offspring fitness with potential consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. It is therefore important to understand under what conditions differential investment into offspring in relation to male quality is expected to occur and the direction of the effect. Two opposite predictions, increased investment into offspring produced with high-quality mates (differential allocation (DA)) and increased investment with low-quality males (reproductive compensation (RC)) have been suggested but no formal theoretical treatment justifying the assumptions underlying these two hypotheses has been conducted to date. Here, we used a state-based approach to investigate the circumstances under which the variation in mate quality results in differential female investment into offspring and how this interacts with female energetic resource levels. We found that a pattern of increased investment when mating with high-quality mates (i.e. DA) was the most common optimal investment strategy for females in our model. By contrast, increased investment when mating with low-quality mates (i.e. RC) was predicted only when the relative impact of parental investment on offspring quality was low. Finally, we found that the specific pattern of investment in relation to male quality depends on female energetic state, the likelihood for future mating opportunities and the expected future distribution of mate quality. Thus, the female's age and body condition should be important factors mediating DA and RC, which may help to explain the equivocal results of empirical studies.

Fetal stem cell transplantation: Past, present, and future

PubMed Central

Ishii, Tetsuya; Eto, Koji

2014-01-01

Since 1928, human fetal tissues and stem cells have been used worldwide to treat various conditions. Although the transplantation of the fetal midbrain substantia nigra and dopaminergic neurons in patients suffering from Parkinson’s disease is particularly noteworthy, the history of other types of grafts, such as those of the fetal liver, thymus, and pancreas, should be addressed as there are many lessons to be learnt for future stem cell transplantation. This report describes previous practices and complications that led to current clinical trials of isolated fetal stem cells and embryonic stem (ES) cells. Moreover, strategies for transplantation are considered, with a particular focus on donor cells, cell processing, and the therapeutic cell niche, in addition to ethical issues associated with fetal origin. With the advent of autologous induced pluripotent stem cells and ES cells, clinical dependence on fetal transplantation is expected to gradually decline due to lasting ethical controversies, despite landmark achievements. PMID:25258662

Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

2018-04-01

Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

Future Prospects of Health Management Systems Using Cellular Phones

PubMed Central

Kim, Hun-Sung; Hwang, Yunji; Lee, Jae-Ho; Oh, Hye Young; Kim, Yi-Jun; Kwon, Hyeon Yoon; Kang, Hyoseung; Kim, Hyunah; Park, Rae Woong

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Cellular phones enable communication between healthcare providers and patients for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases. However, few studies have examined the user-friendliness or effectiveness of cellular phone-based medical informatics (CPBMI) for healthcare. Materials and Methods: This study investigated the use of CPBMI to identify its current status within the medical field, advantages and disadvantages, practicability, clinical effectiveness, costs, and cost-saving potential. Results: CPBMI was validated in terms of practicality and provision of medical benefits. It is critical to use CPBMI in accordance with the different features of each disease and condition. Use of CPBMI is expected to be especially useful for patients with chronic disease. Conclusions: We discussed the current status of the clinical use, benefits, and risks of CPBMI. CPBMI and information technology–based health management tools are anticipated to become useful and effective components of healthcare management in the future. PMID:24693986

Perceived Life Expectancy Is Associated with Colorectal Cancer Screening in England.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Lindsay C; von Wagner, Christian; Wardle, Jane

2017-06-01

Cancer screening is a behavior that represents investment in future health. Such investment may depend on how much 'future' a person expects. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prospective association between perceived personal life expectancy and participation in fecal occult blood test screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) in a national program. Data were from interviews with 3975 men and women in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) within the eligible age range for the national screening program (60 to 74 years). Perceived life expectancy was indexed as the individual's estimate of their chance of living another 10-15 years (exact time varied by age), assessed in 2008/2009. Participation in CRC screening from 2010 to 2012/2013 was assessed in 2012/2013. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between perceived life expectancy and screening participation, adjusted for numeracy and known mortality risk factors. Overall, 71% of respondents (2817/3975) reported completing at least one fecal occult blood test (FOBt) during the follow-up. Screening uptake was 76% (1272/1683) among those who estimated their 10-15-year life expectancy as 75-100%, compared with 52% (126/243) among those who estimated theirs as 0-25% (adjusted OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.29-2.34). A longer perceived life expectancy is associated with greater likelihood of participating in CRC screening in England. However, half of people with a low perceived life expectancy still participated in screening. Given that CRC screening is recommended for adults with a remaining life expectancy of ≥10 years, future research should investigate how to communicate the aims of screening more effectively.

Range-wide patterns of greater sage-grouse persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Nielsen, Scott E.; Beyer, Hawthorne L.; Boyce, Mark S.; Connelly, John W.; Knick, Steven T.; Schroeder, Michael A.

2008-01-01

Aim: Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a shrub-steppe obligate species of western North America, currently occupies only half its historical range. Here we examine how broad-scale, long-term trends in landscape condition have affected range contraction. Location: Sagebrush biome of the western USA. Methods: Logistic regression was used to assess persistence and extirpation of greater sage-grouse range based on landscape conditions measured by human population (density and population change), vegetation (percentage of sagebrush habitat), roads (density of and distance to roads), agriculture (cropland, farmland and cattle density), climate (number of severe and extreme droughts) and range periphery. Model predictions were used to identify areas where future extirpations can be expected, while also explaining possible causes of past extirpations. Results: Greater sage-grouse persistence and extirpation were significantly related to sagebrush habitat, cultivated cropland, human population density in 1950, prevalence of severe droughts and historical range periphery. Extirpation of sage-grouse was most likely in areas having at least four persons per square kilometre in 1950, 25% cultivated cropland in 2002 or the presence of three or more severe droughts per decade. In contrast, persistence of sage-grouse was expected when at least 30 km from historical range edge and in habitats containing at least 25% sagebrush cover within 30 km. Extirpation was most often explained (35%) by the combined effects of peripherality (within 30 km of range edge) and lack of sagebrush cover (less than 25% within 30 km). Based on patterns of prior extirpation and model predictions, we predict that 29% of remaining range may be at risk. Main Conclusions: Spatial patterns in greater sage-grouse range contraction can be explained by widely available landscape variables that describe patterns of remaining sagebrush habitat and loss due to cultivation, climatic trends, human population growth and peripherality of populations. However, future range loss may relate less to historical mechanisms and more to recent changes in land use and habitat condition, including energy developments and invasions by non-native species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and West Nile virus. In conjunction with local measures of population performance, landscape-scale predictions of future range loss may be useful for prioritizing management and protection. Our results suggest that initial conservation efforts should focus on maintaining large expanses of sagebrush habitat, enhancing quality of existing habitats, and increasing habitat connectivity.

Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: a case study in the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

2014-01-01

Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modeling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we detail results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions for the mid- and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided with regards to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model of avalanche activity-snow conditions-meteorological conditions relationships, so as to produce the first prognoses at annual/seasonal time scales of future natural avalanche activity eventually based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of changes anticipation. At all considered spatio-temporal scales, whereas precipitations are expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will control snow-related variables, for instance the rate of decrease of total and dry snow depths, and the successive increase/decrease of the wet snow pack. Overall, with regards to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid-century. Changes in winter are somewhat less important than in spring, but wet snow conditions will appear at high elevations earlier in the season. For a given altitude, the Southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the Northern French Alps, so that the snowpack characteristics will be preserved more lately in the southern massifs of higher mean altitude. Regarding avalanche activity, a general -20-30% decrease and interannual variability is forecasted, relatively strong compared to snow and meteorological parameters changes. This decrease is amplified in spring and at low altitude. In contrast, an increase of avalanche activity is expected in winter at high altitude because of earlier wet snow avalanches triggers, at least as long as a minimal snow cover will be present. Comparison with the outputs of the deterministic avalanche hazard model MEPRA shows generally consistent results but suggests that, even if the frequency of winters with high avalanche activity will clearly decrease, the decreasing trend may be less strong and smooth than suggested by the changes in snowpack characteristics. This important point for risk assessment pleads for further work focusing on shorter time scales. Finally, small differences between different climate change scenarios show the robustness of the predicted avalanche activity changes.

The future of predictive microbiology: strategic research, innovative applications and great expectations.

PubMed

McMeekin, Tom; Bowman, John; McQuestin, Olivia; Mellefont, Lyndal; Ross, Tom; Tamplin, Mark

2008-11-30

This paper considers the future of predictive microbiology by exploring the balance that exists between science, applications and expectations. Attention is drawn to the development of predictive microbiology as a sub-discipline of food microbiology and of technologies that are required for its applications, including a recently developed biological indicator. As we move into the era of systems biology, in which physiological and molecular information will be increasingly available for incorporation into models, predictive microbiologists will be faced with new experimental and data handling challenges. Overcoming these hurdles may be assisted by interacting with microbiologists and mathematicians developing models to describe the microbial role in ecosystems other than food. Coupled with a commitment to maintain strategic research, as well as to develop innovative technologies, the future of predictive microbiology looks set to fulfil "great expectations".

Future-oriented emotions in the prediction of binge-drinking intention and expectation: the role of anticipated and anticipatory emotions.

PubMed

Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores

2012-06-01

The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) offers a parsimonious explanation of purposive behavior, but in the study of healthy and risk behaviors its sufficiency may be questioned. Working with binge-drinking, a very common risk behavior in Spanish undergraduate students, we used two strategies for improving predictions from TPB: using behavioral intention (BI) and behavioral expectation (BE) as proximal antecedents of behaviors and adding as new predictors two future-oriented emotions (anticipated and anticipatory). Hierarchical regression analyses show that while anticipated emotions improved TPB explanations of BI, anticipatory emotions improved the explanations of BE. The present results show the influence of future emotions in the prediction of behavioral intention and behavioral expectation. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2012 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Riparian plant composition along hydrologic gradients in a dryland river basin and implications for a warming climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2017-01-01

Droughts in dryland regions on all continents are expected to increase in severity and duration under future climate projections. In dryland regions, it is likely that minimum streamflow will decrease with some perennial streams shifting to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in precipitation and runoff and increases in temperature. Decreasing base flow and shifting flow regimes from perennial to intermittent could have significant implications for stream-dependent biota, including riparian vegetation. In this study, we asked, how do riparian plant communities vary along wet-to-dry hydrologic gradients on small (first–third order) streams? We collected data on geomorphic, hydrologic, and plant community characteristics on 54 stream sites ranging in hydrology from intermittent to perennial flow across the Upper Colorado River Basin (284,898 km2). We found that plant communities varied along hydrologic gradients from high to low elevation between streams, and perennial to intermittent flow. We identified indicator species associated with different hydrologic conditions and suggest how plant communities may shift under warmer, drier conditions. Our results indicate that species richness and cover of total, perennial, wetland, and native plant groups will decrease while annual plants will increase under drying conditions. Understanding how plant communities respond to regional drivers such as hydroclimate requires broad-scale approaches such as sampling across whole river basins. With increasingly arid conditions in many regions of the globe, understanding plant community shifts is key to understanding the future of riparian ecosystems.

Transcriptomic response of sea urchin larvae Strongylocentrotus purpuratus to CO2-driven seawater acidification.

PubMed

Todgham, Anne E; Hofmann, Gretchen E

2009-08-01

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic CO(2) is expected to have deleterious consequences for many calcifying marine animals. Forecasting the vulnerability of these marine organisms to climate change is linked to an understanding of whether species possess the physiological capacity to compensate for the potentially adverse effects of ocean acidification. We carried out a microarray-based transcriptomic analysis of the physiological response of larvae of a calcifying marine invertebrate, the purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, to CO(2)-driven seawater acidification. In lab-based cultures, larvae were raised under conditions approximating current ocean pH conditions (pH 8.01) and at projected, more acidic pH conditions (pH 7.96 and 7.88) in seawater aerated with CO(2) gas. Targeting expression of approximately 1000 genes involved in several biological processes, this study captured changes in gene expression patterns that characterize the transcriptomic response to CO(2)-driven seawater acidification of developing sea urchin larvae. In response to both elevated CO(2) scenarios, larvae underwent broad scale decreases in gene expression in four major cellular processes: biomineralization, cellular stress response, metabolism and apoptosis. This study underscores that physiological processes beyond calcification are impacted greatly, suggesting that overall physiological capacity and not just a singular focus on biomineralization processes is essential for forecasting the impact of future CO(2) conditions on marine organisms. Conducted on targeted and vulnerable species, genomics-based studies, such as the one highlighted here, have the potential to identify potential ;weak links' in physiological function that may ultimately determine an organism's capacity to tolerate future ocean conditions.

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in the Western U.S.?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niraula, R.; Meixner, T.; Dominguez, F.; Bhattarai, N.; Rodell, M.; Ajami, H.; Gochis, D.; Castro, C.

2017-10-01

Although groundwater is a major water resource in the western U.S., little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future across the western U.S. Variable Infiltration Capacity model was run with RCP 6.0 forcing from 11 global climate models and "subsurface runoff" output was considered as recharge. Recharge is expected to decrease in the West (-5.8 ± 14.3%) and Southwest (-4.0 ± 6.7%) regions in the near future and in the South region (-9.5 ± 24.3%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge in the near (+5.3 ± 9.2%) and far (+11.8 ± 12.3%) future. Overall, southern portions of the western U.S. are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. Climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future. Effects on recharge due to change in vegetation response from projected changes in climate and CO2 concentration, though important, are not considered in this study.

Analysis and comparison of wall cooling schemes for advanced gas turbine applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colladay, R. S.

1972-01-01

The relative performance of (1) counterflow film cooling, (2) parallel-flow film cooling, (3) convection cooling, (4) adiabatic film cooling, (5) transpiration cooling, and (6) full-coverage film cooling was investigated for heat loading conditions expected in future gas turbine engines. Assumed in the analysis were hot-gas conditions of 2200 K (3500 F) recovery temperature, 5 to 40 atmospheres total pressure, and 0.6 gas Mach number and a cooling air supply temperature of 811 K (1000 F). The first three cooling methods involve film cooling from slots. Counterflow and parallel flow describe the direction of convection cooling air along the inside surface of the wall relative to the main gas flow direction. The importance of utilizing the heat sink available in the coolant for convection cooling prior to film injection is illustrated.

An Oil-Free Thrust Foil Bearing Facility Design, Calibration, and Operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, Steve

2005-01-01

New testing capabilities are needed in order to foster thrust foil air bearing technology development and aid its transition into future Oil-Free gas turbines. This paper describes a new test apparatus capable of testing thrust foil air bearings up to 100 mm in diameter at speeds to 80,000 rpm and temperatures to 650 C (1200 F). Measured parameters include bearing torque, load capacity, and bearing temperatures. This data will be used for design performance evaluations and for validation of foil bearing models. Preliminary test results demonstrate that the rig is capable of testing thrust foil air bearings under a wide range of conditions which are anticipated in future Oil-Free gas turbines. Torque as a function of speed and temperature corroborates results expected from rudimentary performance models. A number of bearings were intentionally failed with no resultant damage whatsoever to the test rig. Several test conditions (specific speeds and loads) revealed undesirable axial shaft vibrations which have been attributed to the magnetic bearing control system and are under study. Based upon these preliminary results, this test rig will be a valuable tool for thrust foil bearing research, parametric studies and technology development.

Theory-Based Formative Research on an Anti-Cyberbullying Victimization Intervention Message.

PubMed

Savage, Matthew W; Deiss, Douglas M; Roberto, Anthony J; Aboujaoude, Elias

2017-02-01

Cyberbullying is a common byproduct of the digital revolution with serious consequences to victims. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of empirically based methods to confront it. This study used social cognitive theory to design and test an intervention message aimed at persuading college students to abstain from retaliation, seek social support, save evidence, and notify authorities-important victim responses identified and recommended in previous research. Using a posttest-only control group design, this study tested the effectiveness of an intervention message in changing college students' perceived susceptibility to and perceived severity of cyberbullying as well as their self-efficacy, response efficacy, attitudes, and behavioral intentions toward each recommended response in future episodes of cyberbullying. Results indicated that the intervention message caused participants in the experimental condition to report significantly higher susceptibility, but not perceived severity, to cyberbullying than those in the control condition. The intervention message also caused expected changes in all outcomes except self-efficacy for not retaliating and in all outcomes for seeking social support, saving evidence, and notifying an authority. Implications for message design and future research supporting evidence-based anti-cyberbullying health communication campaigns are discussed.

Climate change and Mediterranean storm tracks: present and future climate simulations of a high-resolution Mediterranean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Simmonds, I.; Keay, K.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Brikolas, V.; Kouroutzoglou, J.

2010-09-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. General features include a reduction in the number of cyclones but with an increase in the number of more intense cyclones; as well as a poleward shift in the tracks. Moreover, these features are expected to be projected in the future under global warming conditions. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes temporal and spatial variations of frequency, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA high resolution model is employed, based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the EH5OM_20C3M present climate simulation, where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4, and b) the EH5OM_A1B scenario simulation, where the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5-MPIOM SRESA1B global simulation (run3) has been used for the period 2001-2050. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Are Pilots Graduating SUPT Today Meeting AMC’s Current and Future Needs

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-05

expect. The future operating environment is expected to be characterized by uncertainty , complexity, rapid change and persistent conflict. As...Procedures  Navigation: Visual, VFR, and IFR  Situational Awareness  Task Management  Three-Dimensional Maneuvering Two methods are used...operations under Instrument or VFR to include day / night IFR operations in the terminal and enroute environment. c. The conduct of mission in a

Considerations on Caring for Caregivers in an Aging Society.

PubMed

Sinha, Dr Samir K

2015-01-01

While it is anticipated that healthcare systems around the world will continue to rely heavily on family members and friends to provide unpaid care especially to meet the needs of our aging population, current assumptions and issues around caregivers need to be challenged and addressed if we are to expect their future support. This paper builds on Williams et al's assertion that many current assumptions and issues around caregivers need to be challenged and addressed if we are to expect their future support. Indeed, with the pool of available caregivers expected to actually shrink in the future, this paper therefore examines four key policy issues in greater depth that we can address to enable individuals to age in place and others to maintain and take on caregiving roles. Through the establishment of policies that support robust and longterm capacity planning; make clear what care recipients and caregivers can expect to receive in the form of government supports; appreciate the increasing diversity that is occurring among those taking on caregiving roles and those requiring care; and recognize the need to invest in strategies that combat social isolation, we may not only improve our future health and well-being but ensure we are also enabled to care for ourselves as we age.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Expectations of filial obligation and their impact on preferences for future living arrangements of middle-aged and older Asian Indian immigrants.

PubMed

Diwan, Sadhna; Lee, Sang E; Sen, Soma

2011-03-01

Filial obligation, described as culturally-defined rights and duties that prescribe how family members are expected to care for and provide support to each other, is an important variable that influences older immigrants' preferences for living and care arrangements. This exploratory study examined variables associated with expectations of filial obligation among middle-aged and older, Asian Indian, first generation immigrants and explored the relationship between variations in expectations of filial obligation and expressed preferences for future living arrangements. Data were collected through telephone surveys of 226 English-speaking immigrants in Atlanta, GA. Although no significant relationships were observed between filial obligation expectations and length of residence in the U.S., respondents indicated a variety of preferred future living arrangements. Contrary to current living arrangement patterns found among older immigrants, very few respondents preferred to move in with their children. The most popular preference was to "move closer to children," followed by "moving to a retirement community" with the majority preferring a retirement community geared to Asian Indians. Other preferences included "not moving" and "returning to India." Variations in expectations of filial obligation, length of residence in the U.S., and self-rated health were significantly associated with these preferences. Implications are discussed for building capacity within ethnic communities to address living arrangement preferences and their repercussions for caregiving in ethnic families and in communities.

Unrealistic optimism in advice taking: A computational account.

PubMed

Leong, Yuan Chang; Zaki, Jamil

2018-02-01

Expert advisors often make surprisingly inaccurate predictions about the future, yet people heed their suggestions nonetheless. Here we provide a novel, computational account of this unrealistic optimism in advice taking. Across 3 studies, participants observed as advisors predicted the performance of a stock. Advisors varied in their accuracy, performing reliably above, at, or below chance. Despite repeated feedback, participants exhibited inflated perceptions of advisors' accuracy, and reliably "bet" on advisors' predictions more than their performance warranted. Participants' decisions tightly tracked a computational model that makes 2 assumptions: (a) people hold optimistic initial expectations about advisors, and (b) people preferentially incorporate information that adheres to their expectations when learning about advisors. Consistent with model predictions, explicitly manipulating participants' initial expectations altered their optimism bias and subsequent advice-taking. With well-calibrated initial expectations, participants no longer exhibited an optimism bias. We then explored crowdsourced ratings as a strategy to curb unrealistic optimism in advisors. Star ratings for each advisor were collected from an initial group of participants, which were then shown to a second group of participants. Instead of calibrating expectations, these ratings propagated and exaggerated the unrealistic optimism. Our results provide a computational account of the cognitive processes underlying inflated perceptions of expertise, and explore the boundary conditions under which they occur. We discuss the adaptive value of this optimism bias, and how our account can be extended to explain unrealistic optimism in other domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Burden of major musculoskeletal conditions.

PubMed Central

Woolf, Anthony D.; Pfleger, Bruce

2003-01-01

Musculoskeletal conditions are a major burden on individuals, health systems, and social care systems, with indirect costs being predominant. This burden has been recognized by the United Nations and WHO, by endorsing the Bone and Joint Decade 2000-2010. This paper describes the burden of four major musculoskeletal conditions: osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and low back pain. Osteoarthritis, which is characterized by loss of joint cartilage that leads to pain and loss of function primarily in the knees and hips, affects 9.6% of men and 18% of women aged > 60 years. Increases in life expectancy and ageing populations are expected to make osteoarthritis the fourth leading cause of disability by the year 2020. Joint replacement surgery, where available, provides effective relief. Rheumatoid arthritis is an inflammatory condition that usually affects multiple joints. It affects 0.3-1.0% of the general population and is more prevalent among women and in developed countries. Persistent inflammation leads to joint destruction, but the disease can be controlled with drugs. The incidence may be on the decline, but the increase in the number of older people in some regions makes it difficult to estimate future prevalence. Osteoporosis, which is characterized by low bone mass and microarchitectural deterioration, is a major risk factor for fractures of the hip, vertebrae, and distal forearm. Hip fracture is the most detrimental fracture, being associated with 20% mortality and 50% permanent loss in function. Low back pain is the most prevalent of musculoskeletal conditions; it affects nearly everyone at some point in time and about 4-33% of the population at any given point. Cultural factors greatly influence the prevalence and prognosis of low back pain. PMID:14710506

Seed bank and big sagebrush plant community composition in a range margin for big sagebrush

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martyn, Trace E.; Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Burke, Ingrid C.; Laurenroth, William K.

2016-01-01

The potential influence of seed bank composition on range shifts of species due to climate change is unclear. Seed banks can provide a means of both species persistence in an area and local range expansion in the case of increasing habitat suitability, as may occur under future climate change. However, a mismatch between the seed bank and the established plant community may represent an obstacle to persistence and expansion. In big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) plant communities in Montana, USA, we compared the seed bank to the established plant community. There was less than a 20% similarity in the relative abundance of species between the established plant community and the seed bank. This difference was primarily driven by an overrepresentation of native annual forbs and an underrepresentation of big sagebrush in the seed bank compared to the established plant community. Even though we expect an increase in habitat suitability for big sagebrush under future climate conditions at our sites, the current mismatch between the plant community and the seed bank could impede big sagebrush range expansion into increasingly suitable habitat in the future.

Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States: a policy statement from the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Heidenreich, Paul A; Trogdon, Justin G; Khavjou, Olga A; Butler, Javed; Dracup, Kathleen; Ezekowitz, Michael D; Finkelstein, Eric Andrew; Hong, Yuling; Johnston, S Claiborne; Khera, Amit; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Nelson, Sue A; Nichol, Graham; Orenstein, Diane; Wilson, Peter W F; Woo, Y Joseph

2011-03-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%. These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.

Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

2017-12-01

A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on agriculture,human health, management of urban infrastructure and water resources.

Well-Loved Music Robustly Relieves Pain: A Randomized, Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Christine; Kong, Jian; Kirsch, Irving; Edwards, Robert R.; Jensen, Karin B.; Kaptchuk, Ted J.; Gollub, Randy L.

2014-01-01

Music has pain-relieving effects, but its mechanisms remain unclear. We sought to verify previously studied analgesic components and further elucidate the underpinnings of music analgesia. Using a well-characterized conditioning-enhanced placebo model, we examined whether boosting expectations would enhance or interfere with analgesia from strongly preferred music. A two-session experiment was performed with 48 healthy, pain experiment-naïve participants. In a first cohort, 36 were randomized into 3 treatment groups, including music enhanced with positive expectancy, non-musical sound enhanced with positive expectancy, and no expectancy enhancement. A separate replication cohort of 12 participants received only expectancy-enhanced music following the main experiment to verify the results of expectancy-manipulation on music. Primary outcome measures included the change in subjective pain ratings to calibrated experimental noxious heat stimuli, as well as changes in treatment expectations. Without conditioning, expectations were strongly in favor of music compared to non-musical sound. While measured expectations were enhanced by conditioning, this failed to affect either music or sound analgesia significantly. Strongly preferred music on its own was as pain relieving as conditioning-enhanced strongly preferred music, and more analgesic than enhanced sound. Our results demonstrate the pain-relieving power of personal music even over enhanced expectations. Trial Information Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01835275. PMID:25211164

Being a Teacher: Altruistic and Narcissistic Expectations of Pre-Service Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Isaac A.

2016-01-01

The article focuses on investigating pre-service teachers' expectations of their future teaching career, in particular concerning teacher-student interrelations. In an attempt to comprehend why people choose teaching as a professional career, a conceptual model titled "Teachers" altruistic-narcissistic classroom expectations' was…

Educational Resilience in African American Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Michael; Swanson, Dena Phillips

2010-01-01

The purpose of this article was to examine factors within the school context that facilitates educational resilience among African American high school students. The authors expected academic self-esteem to be positively associated with future expectations (academic and general). They expected perceptions of school-based social support to have…

Modeling Pathways of Character Development across the First Three Decades of Life: An Application of Integrative Data Analysis Techniques to Understanding the Development of Hopeful Future Expectations.

PubMed

Callina, Kristina Schmid; Johnson, Sara K; Tirrell, Jonathan M; Batanova, Milena; Weiner, Michelle B; Lerner, Richard M

2017-06-01

There were two purposes of the present research: first, to add to scholarship about a key character virtue, hopeful future expectations; and second, to demonstrate a recent innovation in longitudinal methodology that may be especially useful in enhancing the understanding of the developmental course of hopeful future expectations and other character virtues that have been the focus of recent scholarship in youth development. Burgeoning interest in character development has led to a proliferation of short-term, longitudinal studies on character. These data sets are sometimes limited in their ability to model character development trajectories due to low power or relatively brief time spans assessed. However, the integrative data analysis approach allows researchers to pool raw data across studies in order to fit one model to an aggregated data set. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the promises and challenges of this new tool for modeling character development. We used data from four studies evaluating youth character strengths in different settings to fit latent growth curve models of hopeful future expectations from participants aged 7 through 26 years. We describe the analytic strategy for pooling the data and modeling the growth curves. Implications for future research are discussed in regard to the advantages of integrative data analysis. Finally, we discuss issues researchers should consider when applying these techniques in their own work.

The behavioral economics of will in recovery from addiction.

PubMed

Monterosso, John; Ainslie, George

2007-09-01

Behavioral economic studies demonstrate that rewards are discounted proportionally with their delay (hyperbolic discounting). Hyperbolic discounting implies temporary preference for smaller rewards when they are imminent, and this concept has been widely considered by researchers interested in the causes of addictive behavior. Far less consideration has been given to the fact that systematic preference reversal also predicts various self-control phenomena, which may also be analyzed from a behavioral economic perspective. Here we summarize self-control phenomena predicted by hyperbolic discounting, particularly with application to the field of addiction. Of greatest interest is the phenomenon of choice bundling, an increase in motivation to wait for delayed rewards that can be expected to result from making choices in whole categories. Specifically, when a person's expectations about her own future behavior are conditional upon her current behavior, the value of these expectations is added to the contingencies for the current behavior, resulting in reduced impulsivity. Hyperbolic discounting provides a bottom-up basis for the intuitive learning of choice bundling, the properties of which match common descriptions of willpower. We suggest that the bundling effect can also be discerned in the advice of 12-step programs.

The behavioral economics of will in recovery from addiction

PubMed Central

Monterosso, John; Ainslie, George

2007-01-01

Behavioral economic studies demonstrate that rewards are discounted proportionally with their delay (hyperbolic discounting). Hyperbolic discounting implies temporary preference for smaller rewards when they are imminent, and this concept has been widely considered by researchers interested in the causes of addictive behavior. Far less consideration has been given to the fact that systematic preference reversal also predicts various self-control phenomena, which may also be analyzed from a behavioral economic perspective. Here we summarize self-control phenomena predicted by hyperbolic discounting, particularly with application to the field of addiction. Of greatest interest is the phenomenon of choice bundling, an increase in motivation to wait for delayed rewards that can be expected to result from making choices in whole categories. Specifically, when a person’s expectations about her own future behavior are conditional upon her current behavior, the value of these expectations is added to the contingencies for the current behavior, resulting in reduced impulsivity. Hyperbolic discounting provides a bottom-up basis for the intuitive learning of choice bundling, the properties of which match common descriptions of willpower. We suggest that the bundling effect can also be discerned in the advice of 12-step programs. PMID:17034958

Men Want Equality, but Women Don't Expect It: Young Adults' Expectations for Participation in Household and Child Care Chores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Askari, Sabrina F.; Liss, Miriam; Erchull, Mindy J.; Staebell, Samantha E.; Axelson, Sarah J.

2010-01-01

This study explored whether there was a discrepancy between young adults' ideal and expected participation in household and child care chores as well as what variables predicted expectations for future chore division. Three-hundred fifty-eight unmarried, heterosexual participants with no children completed an online questionnaire assessing the…

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts.

PubMed

Amankwah, Nana; Marrie, Ruth Ann; Bancej, Christina; Garner, Rochelle; Manuel, Douglas G; Wall, Ron; Finès, Philippe; Bernier, Julie; Tu, Karen; Reimer, Kim

2017-02-01

The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011-2031). Using Statistics Canada's Population Health Microsimulation Model (POHEM) framework, specifically the population-based longitudinal, microsimulation model named POHEM-Neurological, we identified people with MS from health administrative data sources and derived incidence and mortality rate parameters from a British Columbia population-based cohort for future MS incidence and mortality projections. We also included a utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) reflecting states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of the neurological conditions. The number of incident MS cases is expected to rise slightly from 4051 cases in 2011 to 4794 cases per 100 000 population in 2031, and the number of Canadians affected by MS will increase from 98 385 in 2011 to 133 635 in 2031. The total per capita health care cost (excluding out-of-pocket expenses) for adults aged 20 and older in 2011 was about $16 800 for individuals with MS, and approximately $2500 for individuals without a neurological condition. Thus, after accounting for additional expenditures due to MS (excluding out-of-pocket expenses), total annual health sector costs for MS are expected to reach $2.0 billion by 2031. As well, the average out-of-pocket expenditure for people with MS was around $1300 annually throughout the projection period. MS is associated with a significant economic burden on society, since it usually affects young adults during prime career- and family-building years. Canada has a particularly high prevalence of MS, so research such as the present study is essential to provide a better understanding of the current and future negative impacts of MS on the Canadian population, so that health care system policymakers can best plan how to meet the needs of patients who are affected by MS. These findings also suggest that identifying strategies to prevent MS and more effectively treat the disease are needed to mitigate these future impacts.

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts

PubMed Central

Nana, Amankwah; Ruth, Ann Marrie; Christina, Bancej; Rochelle, Garner; Douglas, G. Manuel; Ron, Wall; Philippe, Finès; Julie, Bernier; Karen, Tu; Kim, Reimer

2017-01-01

Introduction: The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011–2031). Methods: Using Statistics Canada’s Population Health Microsimulation Model (POHEM) framework, specifically the population-based longitudinal, microsimulation model named POHEM-Neurological, we identified people with MS from health administrative data sources and derived incidence and mortality rate parameters from a British Columbia population-based cohort for future MS incidence and mortality projections. We also included a utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) reflecting states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of the neurological conditions. Results: The number of incident MS cases is expected to rise slightly from 4051 cases in 2011 to 4794 cases per 100 000 population in 2031, and the number of Canadians affected by MS will increase from 98 385 in 2011 to 133 635 in 2031. The total per capita health care cost (excluding out-of-pocket expenses) for adults aged 20 and older in 2011 was about $16 800 for individuals with MS, and approximately $2500 for individuals without a neurological condition. Thus, after accounting for additional expenditures due to MS (excluding out-of-pocket expenses), total annual health sector costs for MS are expected to reach $2.0 billion by 2031. As well, the average out-of-pocket expenditure for people with MS was around $1300 annually throughout the projection period. Conclusion: MS is associated with a significant economic burden on society, since it usually affects young adults during prime career- and family-building years. Canada has a particularly high prevalence of MS, so research such as the present study is essential to provide a better understanding of the current and future negative impacts of MS on the Canadian population, so that health care system policymakers can best plan how to meet the needs of patients who are affected by MS. These findings also suggest that identifying strategies to prevent MS and more effectively treat the disease are needed to mitigate these future impacts. PMID:28273039

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brink, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Loh, Rhonda; Price, Jonathan; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-06-05

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate.The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future.We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the “current” (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected “end-of-century” (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

New control strategies with inertial monolithic sensors: advantages and limitations in the control of benches and platforms for seismic isolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barone, F.; Giordano, G.; Acernese, F.; Romano, R.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present some innovative and general strategies for the control of benches and platforms, that the introduction of the new class of monolithic UNISA Folded Pendulum is now making it possible, also in terms of environmental conditions, like ultra-high-vacuum (UHV), cryogenics and harsh environments. In particular, we present and discuss a parametric analysis of the control models in connection with the sensors limitations in terms of sensitivity and band. Finally, we present and discuss some experimental laboratory tests on a laboratory platform, underlining the present advantages and the expected future improvements.

The space shuttle program from challenge to achievement: Space exploration rolling on tires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Felder, G. L.

1985-01-01

The Space Shuttle Transportation System is the first space program to employ the pneumatic tire as a part of space exploration. For aircraft tires, this program establishes new expectations as to what constitutes acceptable performance within a set of tough environmental and operational conditions. Tire design, stresses the usual low weight, high load, high speed, and excellent air retention features but at extremes well outside industry standards. Tires will continue to be an integral part of the Shuttle's landing phase in the immediate future since they afford a unique combination of directional control, braking traction, flotation and shock absorption not available by other systems.

Contradictory results in interferon research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonnenfeld, G.

1984-01-01

Several reports on immunologically related interferon research, both in the areas of basic science and clinical research, are briefly reviewed, and it is noted that in many cases the results obtained are contradictory. It is argued, however, that the contradictory results are not surprising since interferon is a biological response modifier and has been known to produce opposite results even when the same interferon prepartion is used. It is emphasized that dosage, timing, route, and other experimental conditions are essential factors in planning immunological studies with interferon. Careful planning of future experiments with interferon should be required to prevent the possible generation of effects that are opposite to those expected.

The Conference Facilitator Model: Improving the Value of Conference Attendance for Attendees and the Organization.

PubMed

Nebrig, Dawn; Munafo, Jennifer; Goddard, Julie; Tierney, Carol

2015-09-01

Healthcare leaders face a multitude of priorities demanding their attention and resources, from patient, employee safety and hospital-acquired conditions to predicting future revenue in the context of healthcare reform. Assessing value requires balancing outcomes and experience with cost. How does allocating funds for professional nursing conferences measure up? What is a valid return on investment when we send staff nurses to professional conferences, specifically the annual Magnet® conference? The following article describes how Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center answered these questions and redefined the expectations for conference attendees while enhancing the experience and the reportable outcomes for practice and the organization.

Children of Misfortune: Early Adversity and Cumulative Inequality in Perceived Life Trajectories1

PubMed Central

Schafer, Markus H.; Ferraro, Kenneth F.; Mustillo, Sarah A.

2011-01-01

Adversity early in life may alter pathways of aging, but what interpretive processes can soften the blow of early insults? Drawing from cumulative inequality theory, the authors analyze trajectories of life evaluations and then consider whether early adversity offsets favorable expectations for the future. Results reveal that early adversity contributes to more negative views of the past but rising expectations for the future. Early adversity also has enduring effects on life evaluations, offsetting the influence of buoyant expectations. The findings draw attention to the limits of human agency under the constraints of early adversity—a process described as biographical structuration. PMID:21648247

Modelling and Control of Robotic Leg as Assistive Device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jingye, Yee; Zain, Badrul Aisham bin Md

2017-10-01

The ageing population (people older than 60 years old) is expected to constitute 21.8% of global population by year 2050. When human ages, bodily function including locomotors will deteriorate. Besides, there are hundreds of thousands of victims who suffer from multiple health conditions worldwide that leads to gait impairment. A promising solution will be the lower limb powered-exoskeleton. This study is to be a start-up platform to design a lower limb powered-exoskeleton for a normal Malaysian male, by designing and simulating the dynamic model of a 2-link robotic leg to observe its behaviour under different input conditions with and without a PID controller. Simulink in MATLAB software is used as the dynamic modelling and simulation software for this study. It is observed that the 2-links robotic leg behaved differently under different input conditions, and perform the best when it is constrained and controlled by PID controller. Simulink model is formed as a foundation for the upcoming researches and can be modified and utilised by the future researchers.

Parents' Role in Adolescents' Educational Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rimkute, Laura; Hirvonen, Riikka; Tolvanen, Asko; Aunola, Kaisa; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

2012-01-01

The present study examined the extent to which mothers' and fathers' expectations for their offspring's future education, their level of education, and adolescents' academic achievement predict adolescents' educational expectations. To investigate this, 230 adolescents were examined twice while they were in comprehensive school (in the 7th and 9th…

Outcome Expectations: Looking to the Past and Potential Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fouad, Nadya A.; Guillen, Amy

2006-01-01

This article focuses on the construct of outcome expectations. It is argued that the construct has received relatively little attention in the vocational literature. The authors define outcome expectations, trace the precursors to the construct, provide a critique of the operationalization of the construct, and propose recommendations for future…

Students' Aspirations, Expectations and School Achievement: What Really Matters?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khattab, Nabil

2015-01-01

Using the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE), this study examines how different combinations of aspirations, expectations and school achievement can influence students' future educational behaviour (applying to university at the age of 17-18). The study shows that students with either high aspirations or high expectations have…

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

PubMed Central

Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales. PMID:26700871

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

PubMed

Friggens, Megan M; Finch, Deborah M

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.

Dynamic integration of land use changes in a hydrologic assessment of a rapidly developing Indian catchment.

PubMed

Wagner, Paul D; Bhallamudi, S Murty; Narasimhan, Balaji; Kantakumar, Lakshmi N; Sudheer, K P; Kumar, Shamita; Schneider, Karl; Fiener, Peter

2016-01-01

Rapid land use and land-cover changes strongly affect water resources. Particularly in regions that experience seasonal water scarcity, land use scenario assessments provide a valuable basis for the evaluation of possible future water shortages. The objective of this study is to dynamically integrate land use model projections with a hydrologic model to analyze potential future impacts of land use change on the water resources of a rapidly developing catchment upstream of Pune, India. For the first time projections from the urban growth and land use change model SLEUTH are employed as a dynamic input to the hydrologic model SWAT. By this means, impacts of land use changes on the water balance components are assessed for the near future (2009-2028) employing four different climate conditions (baseline, IPCC A1B, dry, wet). The land use change modeling results in an increase of urban area by +23.1% at the fringes of Pune and by +12.2% in the upper catchment, whereas agricultural land (-14.0% and -0.3%, respectively) and semi-natural area (-9.1% and -11.9%, respectively) decrease between 2009 and 2028. Under baseline climate conditions, these land use changes induce seasonal changes in the water balance components. Water yield particularly increases at the onset of monsoon (up to +11.0mm per month) due to increased impervious area, whereas evapotranspiration decreases in the dry season (up to -15.1mm per month) as a result of the loss of irrigated agricultural area. As the projections are made for the near future (2009-2028) land use change impacts are similar under IPCC A1B climate conditions. Only if more extreme dry years occur, an exacerbation of the land use change impacts can be expected. Particularly in rapidly changing environments an implementation of both dynamic land use change and climate change seems favorable to assess seasonal and gradual changes in the water balance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mountain Climates on the Move: Implications for Past and Future Vegetation Shifts in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wason, J. W., III; Dovciak, M.; Bevilacqua, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change in the northeastern United States is expected to shift climatic (temperature) envelopes for spruce-fir forests upslope and northward decreasing their area in the region by 2100. Coarse scale landscape models however, may not incorporate heterogeneity in climatic conditions in mountains that can create climatic refugia for species in high-elevation spruce-fir forests. To determine spatial and temporal trends in climate of mountain spruce-fir forests we measured microclimate at 98 forest plots in 2012 and 2013 on 12 mountains in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. By linking regional climate trends with our spatial climate data we calculated elevational shifts in temperature envelopes during the last 50 years. Additionally we linked our spatial dataset to a range of future climate conditions for 2100 based on Representative Concentration Pathways (1 to 5°C warming). We hypothesized that climates have already changed to an extent that spruce-fir forests should begin to respond and that future climate conditions may shift suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests beyond their current range. We found that regional climate change over the last 50 years has resulted in warming of 0.66 and 1.62°C for average annual daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures in the region. When linked to our spatial microclimate model, this warming results in a 100 (Tmax) and 312m (Tmin) upslope shift in temperature envelopes. Future climate projections suggest that by 2100 Tmax may shift upslope between 152 and 758m for the 1 and 5°C scenarios respectively, while Tmin may shift upslope between 192 and 962m. Spruce-fir forests typically occupy an elevation range of ~500m suggesting that the climate experienced in these forests 50 years ago may not be found within their elevation range by 2100. These results are discussed in the context of responses of tree populations and growth rates observed along the elevation gradients of northeastern United States.

Numerical and experimental investigations of human swimming motions

PubMed Central

Takagi, Hideki; Nakashima, Motomu; Sato, Yohei; Matsuuchi, Kazuo; Sanders, Ross H.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT This paper reviews unsteady flow conditions in human swimming and identifies the limitations and future potential of the current methods of analysing unsteady flow. The capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been extended from approaches assuming steady-state conditions to consideration of unsteady/transient conditions associated with the body motion of a swimmer. However, to predict hydrodynamic forces and the swimmer’s potential speeds accurately, more robust and efficient numerical methods are necessary, coupled with validation procedures, requiring detailed experimental data reflecting local flow. Experimental data obtained by particle image velocimetry (PIV) in this area are limited, because at present observations are restricted to a two-dimensional 1.0 m2 area, though this could be improved if the output range of the associated laser sheet increased. Simulations of human swimming are expected to improve competitive swimming, and our review has identified two important advances relating to understanding the flow conditions affecting performance in front crawl swimming: one is a mechanism for generating unsteady fluid forces, and the other is a theory relating to increased speed and efficiency. PMID:26699925

Numerical and experimental investigations of human swimming motions.

PubMed

Takagi, Hideki; Nakashima, Motomu; Sato, Yohei; Matsuuchi, Kazuo; Sanders, Ross H

2016-08-01

This paper reviews unsteady flow conditions in human swimming and identifies the limitations and future potential of the current methods of analysing unsteady flow. The capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been extended from approaches assuming steady-state conditions to consideration of unsteady/transient conditions associated with the body motion of a swimmer. However, to predict hydrodynamic forces and the swimmer's potential speeds accurately, more robust and efficient numerical methods are necessary, coupled with validation procedures, requiring detailed experimental data reflecting local flow. Experimental data obtained by particle image velocimetry (PIV) in this area are limited, because at present observations are restricted to a two-dimensional 1.0 m(2) area, though this could be improved if the output range of the associated laser sheet increased. Simulations of human swimming are expected to improve competitive swimming, and our review has identified two important advances relating to understanding the flow conditions affecting performance in front crawl swimming: one is a mechanism for generating unsteady fluid forces, and the other is a theory relating to increased speed and efficiency.

Health Status and Experience of the Migrant Workers Returned from Spain to Colombia: A Qualitative Approach.

PubMed

Zapata-Villa, Carolina; Agudelo-Suárez, Andrés A; Cardona-Arango, Doris; Ronda-Pérez, Elena

2017-12-14

This study aims to understand the migratory experience and the employment, work and health conditions of the returned migrants from Spain to Colombia. A qualitative study was conducted by means of 23 semi-structured interviews with Colombian returned migrant workers. Qualitative narrative content analysis was performed using Atlas.Ti software. Main findings are represented by nine categories emerged from the participants' discourses: (1) impact of the economic crisis on work and employment conditions in Spain, (2) economic crisis and return, (3) characteristics of returnees, (4) perception of the returnees about Colombia, (5) the role of social support networks, (6) employment and working conditions in Colombia, (7) health and wellbeing, (8) future plans and expectations, (9) the experience of being immigrant. Adjustment difficulties in participants are evidenced by the return migration process and the conditions of the social, political and economic system in Colombia. Return migration represents the reconfiguration of personal and working lives of this population. This situation requires the development of global policies and strategies in public health to facilitate the adaptation of these people.

Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: a Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Woster, Andrew P; Goldstein, Rebecca S; Carlton, Elizabeth J

2016-05-17

Global climate change is expected to affect waterborne enteric diseases, yet to date there has been no comprehensive, systematic review of the epidemiological literature examining the relationship between meteorological conditions and diarrheal diseases. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Collection for studies describing the relationship between diarrheal diseases and four meteorological conditions that are expected to increase with climate change: ambient temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding. We synthesized key areas of agreement and evaluated the biological plausibility of these findings, drawing from a diverse, multidisciplinary evidence base. We identified 141 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Key areas of agreement include a positive association between ambient temperature and diarrheal diseases, with the exception of viral diarrhea and an increase in diarrheal disease following heavy rainfall and flooding events. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the effects of drought on diarrhea. There is evidence to support the biological plausibility of these associations, but publication bias is an ongoing concern. Future research evaluating whether interventions, such as improved water and sanitation access, modify risk would further our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on diarrheal diseases and aid in the prioritization of adaptation measures.

Design and Test Plans for a Non-Nuclear Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Lee; Palac, Donald; Gibson, Marc; Houts, Michael; Warren, John; Werner, James; Poston, David; Qualls, Arthur Lou; Radel, Ross; Harlow, Scott

2012-01-01

A joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Department of Energy (DOE) team is developing concepts and technologies for affordable nuclear Fission Power Systems (FPSs) to support future exploration missions. A key deliverable is the Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU). The TDU will assemble the major elements of a notional FPS with a non-nuclear reactor simulator (Rx Sim) and demonstrate system-level performance in thermal vacuum. The Rx Sim includes an electrical resistance heat source and a liquid metal heat transport loop that simulates the reactor thermal interface and expected dynamic response. A power conversion unit (PCU) generates electric power utilizing the liquid metal heat source and rejects waste heat to a heat rejection system (HRS). The HRS includes a pumped water heat removal loop coupled to radiator panels suspended in the thermal-vacuum facility. The basic test plan is to subject the system to realistic operating conditions and gather data to evaluate performance sensitivity, control stability, and response characteristics. Upon completion of the testing, the technology is expected to satisfy the requirements for Technology Readiness Level 6 (System Demonstration in an Operational and Relevant Environment) based on the use of high-fidelity hardware and prototypic software tested under realistic conditions and correlated with analytical predictions.

Design and Test Plans for a Non-Nuclear Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mason, L.; Palac, D.; Gibson, M.; Houts, M.; Warren, J.; Werner, J.; Poston, D.; Qualls, L.; Radel, R.; Harlow, S.

A joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Department of Energy (DOE) team is developing concepts and technologies for affordable nuclear Fission Power Systems (FPSs) to support future exploration missions. A key deliverable is the Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU). The TDU will assemble the major elements of a notional FPS with a non-nuclear reactor simulator (Rx Sim) and demonstrate system-level performance in thermal vacuum. The Rx Sim includes an electrical resistance heat source and a liquid metal heat transport loop that simulates the reactor thermal interface and expected dynamic response. A power conversion unit (PCU) generates electric power utilizing the liquid metal heat source and rejects waste heat to a heat rejection system (HRS). The HRS includes a pumped water heat removal loop coupled to radiator panels suspended in the thermal-vacuum facility. The basic test plan is to subject the system to realistic operating conditions and gather data to evaluate performance sensitivity, control stability, and response characteristics. Upon completion of the testing, the technology is expected to satisfy the requirements for Technology Readiness Level 6 (System Demonstration in an Operational and Relevant Environment) based on the use of high-fidelity hardware and prototypic software tested under realistic conditions and correlated with analytical predictions.

Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

2016-12-01

It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) project following the Paris Agreement, 2015, to aim to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Sensitivity of power system operations to projected changes in water availability due to climate change: the Western U.S. case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Macknick, J.; Fu, T.; O'Connell, M.; Zhou, T.; Brinkman, G.

2017-12-01

Water resources provide multiple critical services to the electrical grid through hydropower technologies, from generation to regulation of the electric grid (frequency, capacity reserve). Water resources can also represent vulnerabilities to the electric grid, as hydropower and thermo-electric facilities require water for operations. In the Western U.S., hydropower and thermo-electric plants that rely on fresh surface water represent 67% of the generating capacity. Prior studies have looked at the impact of change in water availability under future climate conditions on expected generating capacity in the Western U.S., but have not evaluated operational risks or changes resulting from climate. In this study, we systematically assess the impact of change in water availability and air temperatures on power operations, i.e. we take into account the different grid services that water resources can provide to the electric grid (generation, regulation) in the system-level context of inter-regional coordination through the electric transmission network. We leverage the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) hydrology simulations under historical and future climate conditions, and force the large scale river routing- water management model MOSART-WM along with 2010-level sectoral water demands. Changes in monthly hydropower potential generation (including generation and reserves), as well as monthly generation capacity of thermo-electric plants are derived for each power plant in the Western U.S. electric grid. We then utilize the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions for the 2010 infrastructure under 100 years of historical and future (2050 horizon) hydroclimate conditions. We use economic metrics as well as operational metrics such as generation portfolio, emissions, and reserve margins to assess the changes in power system operations between historical and future normal and extreme water availability conditions. We provide insight on how this information can be used to support resource adequacy and grid expansion studies over the Western U.S. in the context of inter-annual variability and climate change.

Differential impacts of ocean acidification and warming on winter and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).

PubMed

Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago

2014-02-15

Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, P<0.05). The embryonic period was shortened by increasing temperature in both pH treatments (P<0.05). Embryo growth rates increased significantly with temperature under present-day scenarios, but there was a significant trend reversal under future summer warming conditions (P<0.05). Besides pronounced premature hatching, a higher percentage of abnormalities was found in summer embryos exposed to future warming and lower pH (P<0.05). Under the hypercapnic scenario, oxygen consumption rates decreased significantly in late embryos and newly hatched paralarvae, especially in the summer period (P<0.05). Concomitantly, there was a significant enhancement of the heat shock response (HSP70/HSC70) with warming in both pH treatments and developmental stages. Upper thermal tolerance limits were positively influenced by acclimation temperature, and such thresholds were significantly higher in late embryos than in hatchlings under present-day conditions (P<0.05). In contrast, the upper thermal tolerance limits under hypercapnia were higher in hatchlings than in embryos. Thus, we show that the stressful abiotic conditions inside the embryo's capsules will be exacerbated under near-future ocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such conditions is expected to negatively affect the survival success of squid early life stages during the summer spawning period, but not winter spawning.

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.

PubMed

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Stoffel, Markus

2014-09-15

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Gabriel; Wessels, Martin; Wüest, Alfred

2016-09-01

Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal - and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

Getting What You Expect: Negative Social Expectations in Early Adolescence Predict Hostile Romantic Partnerships and Friendships into Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loeb, Emily L.; Tan, Joseph S.; Hessel, Elenda T.; Allen, Joseph P.

2018-01-01

Adolescents' negative expectations of their peers were examined as predictors of their future selection of hostile partners, in a community sample of 184 adolescents followed from ages 13 to 24. Utilizing observational data, close friend- and self-reports, adolescents with more negative expectations at age 13 were found to be more likely to form…

Extreme weather conditions reduce the CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obermeier, Wolfgang; Lehnert, Lukas; Kammann, Claudia; Müller, Christoph; Grünhage, Ludger; Luterbacher, Jürg; Erbs, Martin; Yuan, Naiming; Bendix, Jörg

2016-04-01

The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of global climate change. The rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations may stimulate plant photosynthesis and, thus, cause a net sink effect in the global carbon cycle. As a consequence of an enhanced photosynthesis, an increase in the net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants (termed CO2 fertilization) is widely assumed. This process is associated with a reduced stomatal conductance of leaves as the carbon demand of photosynthesis is met earlier. This causes a higher water-use efficiency and, hence, may reduce water stress in plants exposed to elevated CO2 concentrations ([eCO2]). However, the magnitude and persistence of the CO2 fertilization effect under a future climate including more frequent weather extremes are controversial. To test the CO2 fertilization effect for Central European grasslands, a data set comprising 16 years of biomass samples and environmental variables such as local weather and soil conditions was analysed by means of a novel approach. The data set was recorded on a "Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment" (FACE) experimental site which allows to quantify the CO2 fertilization effect under naturally occurring climate variations. The results indicate that the CO2 fertilization effect on the aboveground biomass is strongest under local average environmental conditions. Such intermediate regimes were defined by the mean +/- 1 standard deviation of the long-term average in the respective variable three months before harvest. The observed CO2 fertilization effect was reduced or vanished under drier, wetter and hotter conditions when the respective variable exceeded the bounds of the intermediate regimes. Comparable conditions, characterized by a higher frequency of more extreme weather conditions, are predicted for the future by climate projections. Consequently, biogeochemical models may overestimate the future NPP sink capacity of temperate C3 grasslands. Because temperate grasslands represent an important part of the Earth's terrestrial surface and therefore the global carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2] might increase faster than currently expected.

Evaluation of Mid-Size Male Hybrid III Models for use in Spaceflight Occupant Protection Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, J.; Somers, J.; Wells, J.; Newby, N.; Currie-Gregg, N.; Lawrence, C.

2016-01-01

Introduction: In an effort to improve occupant safety during dynamic phases of spaceflight, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked to develop occupant protection standards for future crewed spacecraft. One key aspect of these standards is the identification of injury mechanisms through anthropometric test devices (ATDs). Within this analysis, both physical and computational ATD evaluations are required to reasonably encompass the vast range of loading conditions any spaceflight crew may encounter. In this study the accuracy of publically available mid-size male HIII ATD finite element (FE) models are evaluated within applicable loading conditions against extensive sled testing performed on their physical counterparts. Methods: A series of sled tests were performed at the Wright Patterson Air force Base (WPAFB) employing variations of magnitude, duration, and impact direction to encompass the dynamic loading range for expected spaceflight. FE simulations were developed to the specifications of the test setup and driven using measured acceleration profiles. Both fast and detailed FE models of the mid-size male HIII were ran to quantify differences in their accuracy and thus assess the applicability of each within this field. Results: Preliminary results identify the dependence of model accuracy on loading direction, magnitude, and rate. Additionally the accuracy of individual response metrics are shown to vary across each model within evaluated test conditions. Causes for model inaccuracy are identified based on the observed relationships. Discussion: Computational modeling provides an essential component to ATD injury metric evaluation used to ensure the safety of future spaceflight occupants. The assessment of current ATD models lays the groundwork for how these models can be used appropriately in the future. Identification of limitations and possible paths for improvement aid in the development of these effective analysis tools.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2012-08-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate. The framework estimates hazard at high resolution (~1 km2) using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood routing model, and importantly, a flood extent downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case-study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard and damage estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database and damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

Initial report of the osteogenesis imperfecta adult natural history initiative.

PubMed

Tosi, Laura L; Oetgen, Matthew E; Floor, Marianne K; Huber, Mary Beth; Kennelly, Ann M; McCarter, Robert J; Rak, Melanie F; Simmonds, Barbara J; Simpson, Melissa D; Tucker, Carole A; McKiernan, Fergus E

2015-11-14

A better understanding of the natural history of osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) in adulthood should improve health care for patients with this rare condition. The Osteogenesis Imperfecta Foundation established the Adult Natural History Initiative (ANHI) in 2010 to give voice to the health concerns of the adult OI community and to begin to address existing knowledge gaps for this condition. Using a web-based platform, 959 adults with self-reported OI, representing a wide range of self-reported disease severity, reported symptoms and health conditions, estimated the impact of these concerns on present and future health-related quality of life (QoL) and completed a Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS®) survey of health issues. Adults with OI report lower general physical health status (p < .0001), exhibit a higher prevalence of auditory (58% of sample versus 2-16% of normalized population) and musculoskeletal (64% of sample versus 1-3% of normalized population) concerns than the general population, but report generally similar mental health status. Musculoskeletal, auditory, pulmonary, endocrine, and gastrointestinal issues are particular future health-related QoL concerns for these adults. Numerous other statistically significant differences exist among adults with OI as well as between adults with OI and the referent PROMIS® population, but the clinical significance of these differences is uncertain. Adults with OI report lower general health status but are otherwise more similar to the general population than might have been expected. While reassuring, further analysis of the extensive OI-ANHI databank should help identify areas of unique clinical concern and for future research. The OI-ANHI survey experience supports an internet-based strategy for successful patient-centered outcomes research in rare disease populations.

Evaluation of Mid-Size Male Hybrid III Models for use in Spaceflight Occupant Protection Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, Jacob B.; Sommers, Jeffrey T.; Wells, Jessica A.; Newby, Nathaniel J.; Currie-Gregg, Nancy J.; Lawrence, Chuck

2016-01-01

In an effort to improve occupant safety during dynamic phases of spaceflight, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has worked to develop occupant protection standards for future crewed spacecraft. One key aspect of these standards is the identification of injury mechanisms through anthropometric test devices (ATDs). Within this analysis, both physical and computational ATD evaluations are required to reasonably encompass the vast range of loading conditions any spaceflight crew may encounter. In this study the accuracy of publically available mid-size male HIII ATD finite element (FE) models are evaluated within applicable loading conditions against extensive sled testing performed on their physical counterparts. Methods: A series of sled tests were performed at the Wright Patterson Air force Base (WPAFB) employing variations of magnitude, duration, and impact direction to encompass the dynamic loading range for expected spaceflight. FE simulations were developed to the specifications of the test setup and driven using measured acceleration profiles. Both fast and detailed FE models of the mid-size male HIII were ran to quantify differences in their accuracy and thus assess the applicability of each within this field. Results: Preliminary results identify the dependence of model accuracy on loading direction, magnitude, and rate. Additionally the accuracy of individual response metrics are shown to vary across each model within evaluated test conditions. Causes for model inaccuracy are identified based on the observed relationships. Discussion: Computational modeling provides an essential component to ATD injury metric evaluation used to ensure the safety of future spaceflight occupants. The assessment of current ATD models lays the groundwork for how these models can be used appropriately in the future. Identification of limitations and possible paths for improvement aid in the development of these effective analysis tools.

'Futureless persons': shifting life expectancies and the vicissitudes of progressive illness.

PubMed

Gibson, Barbara E; Zitzelsberger, Hilde; McKeever, Patricia

2009-05-01

Medical technological advances can have profound effects on people's lives by extending the life course and creating uncertain futures. This is the case for a number of persons with 'diseases of childhood' who can now survive well into adulthood with technological support. This paper draws on a Canadian qualitative study of young men with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD)which examined the effects of a shifting life expectancy on personal identities. Engaging with Pierre Bourdieu's central concept of habitus, we discuss the temporal dimensions of social exclusion and marginalised identities. Participants' narrative accounts revealed how their dispositions were orientated to a shortened lifespan that exerted damaging effects regardless of actual lifespan. Compounding their material, social and symbolic isolation was a temporal isolation whereby the men had lived every day anticipating that it could be their last for as much as a decade. The findings suggest a need to re-orient medical and social discourses to serve and include adults with DMD and other conditions previously limited to childhood in their communities.

Can We "Future-Proof" Marine Conservation Planning?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, M. L.; Rogers, L. A.

2016-02-01

Marine conservation and marine spatial planning strategies worldwide are designed around biogeographic patterns, often under the assumption that these patterns are relatively stable. With climate change, however, distributions are shifting rapidly as species seek more suitable conditions. Here, we use distribution projections from 2006-2100 for 360 marine species in North America to evaluate the effectiveness of the current marine protected area (MPA) network and to test climate-ready planning approaches. We consider both expected community changes and the uncertainty in those projections. We find that existing MPAs are likely to lose more species over the coming century than other locations on the continental shelf. We also find substantial shifts in the location of high- and low-value regions, which can complicate conservation planning. However, planning portfolios can be developed that perform much better in the face of changes expected over the coming century. The theory and practice of marine spatial planning and marine conservation can be substantially more responsive to our dynamic ocean.

Precision Timing with Silicon Sensors for Use in Calorimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bornheim, A.; Ronzhin, A.; Kim, H.; Bolla, G.; Pena, C.; Xie, S.; Apresyan, A.; Los, S.; Spiropulu, M.; Ramberg, E.

2017-11-01

The high luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) at CERN is expected to provide instantaneous luminosities of 5 × 1034 cm -2 s -1. The high luminosities expected at the HL-LHC will be accompanied by a factor of 5 to 10 more pileup compared with LHC conditions in 2015, causing general confusion for particle identification and event reconstruction. Precision timing allows to extend calorimetric measurements into such a high density environment by subtracting the energy deposits from pileup interactions. Calorimeters employing silicon as the active component have recently become a popular choice for the HL- LHC and future collider experiments which face very high radiation environments. We present studies of basic calorimetric and precision timing measurements using a prototype composed of tungsten absorber and silicon sensor as the active medium. We show that for the bulk of electromagnetic showers induced by electrons in the range of 20 GeV to 30 GeV, we can achieve time resolutions better than 25 ps per single pad sensor.

Genetic correlation between amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and schizophrenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, Russell L.; Schijven, Dick; van Rheenen, Wouter; van Eijk, Kristel R.; O'Brien, Margaret; Kahn, René S.; Ophoff, Roel A.; Goris, An; Bradley, Daniel G.; Al-Chalabi, Ammar; van den Berg, Leonard H.; Luykx, Jurjen J.; Hardiman, Orla; Veldink, Jan H.; Shatunov, Aleksey; Dekker, Annelot M.; Diekstra, Frank P.; Pulit, Sara L.; van der Spek, Rick A. A.; van Doormaal, Perry T. C.; Sproviero, William; Jones, Ashley R.; Nicholson, Garth A.; Rowe, Dominic B.; Pamphlett, Roger; Kiernan, Matthew C.; Bauer, Denis; Kahlke, Tim; Williams, Kelly; Eftimov, Filip; Fogh, Isabella; Ticozzi, Nicola; Lin, Kuang; Millecamps, Stéphanie; Salachas, François; Meininger, Vincent; de Carvalho, Mamede; Pinto, Susana; Mora, Jesus S.; Rojas-García, Ricardo; Polak, Meraida; Chandran, Siddharthan; Colville, Shuna; Swingler, Robert; Morrison, Karen E.; Shaw, Pamela J.; Hardy, John; Orrell, Richard W.; Pittman, Alan; Sidle, Katie; Fratta, Pietro; Malaspina, Andrea; Petri, Susanne; Abdulla, Susanna; Drepper, Carsten; Sendtner, Michael; Meyer, Thomas; Wiedau-Pazos, Martina; Lomen-Hoerth, Catherine; van Deerlin, Vivianna M.; Trojanowski, John Q.; Elman, Lauren; McCluskey, Leo; Basak, Nazli; Meitinger, Thomas; Lichtner, Peter; Blagojevic-Radivojkov, Milena; Andres, Christian R.; Maurel, Cindy; Bensimon, Gilbert; Landwehrmeyer, Bernhard; Brice, Alexis; Payan, Christine A. M.; Saker-Delye, Safa; Dürr, Alexandra; Wood, Nicholas; Tittmann, Lukas; Lieb, Wolfgang; Franke, Andre; Rietschel, Marcella; Cichon, Sven; Nöuthen, Markus M.; Amouyel, Philippe; Tzourio, Christophe; Dartigues, Jean-François; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Estrada, Karol; Hofman, Albert; Curtis, Charles; van der Kooi, Anneke J.; de Visser, Marianne; Weber, Markus; Shaw, Christopher E.; Smith, Bradley N.; Pansarasa, Orietta; Cereda, Cristina; Del Bo, Roberto; Comi, Giacomo P.; D'Alfonso, Sandra; Bertolin, Cinzia; Sorarù, Gianni; Mazzini, Letizia; Pensato, Viviana; Gellera, Cinzia; Tiloca, Cinzia; Ratti, Antonia; Calvo, Andrea; Moglia, Cristina; Brunetti, Maura; Arcuti, Simon; Capozzo, Rosa; Zecca, Chiara; Lunetta, Christian; Penco, Silvana; Riva, Nilo; Padovani, Alessandro; Filosto, Massimiliano; Blair, Ian; Leigh, P. Nigel; Casale, Federico; Chio, Adriano; Beghi, Ettore; Pupillo, Elisabetta; Tortelli, Rosanna; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Powell, John; Ludolph, Albert C.; Weishaupt, Jochen H.; Robberecht, Wim; van Damme, Philip; Brown, Robert H.; Glass, Jonathan; Landers, John E.; Andersen, Peter M.; Corcia, Philippe; Vourc'h, Patrick; Silani, Vincenzo; van Es, Michael A.; Pasterkamp, R. Jeroen; Lewis, Cathryn M.; Breen, Gerome; Ripke, Stephan; Neale, Benjamin M.; Corvin, Aiden; Walters, James T. R.; Farh, Kai-How; Holmans, Peter A.; Lee, Phil; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Collier, David A.; Huang, Hailiang; Pers, Tune H.; Agartz, Ingrid; Agerbo, Esben; Albus, Margot; Alexander, Madeline; Amin, Farooq; Bacanu, Silviu A.; Begemann, Martin; Belliveau, Richard A.; Bene, Judit; Bergen, Sarah E.; Bevilacqua, Elizabeth; Bigdeli, Tim B.; Black, Donald W.; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buckner, Randy L.; Byerley, William; Cahn, Wiepke; Cai, Guiqing; Campion, Dominique; Cantor, Rita M.; Carr, Vaughan J.; Carrera, Noa; Catts, Stanley V.; Chambert, Kimberley D.; Chan, Raymond C. K.; Chan, Ronald Y. L.; Chen, Eric Y. H.; Cheng, Wei; Cheung, Eric F. C.; Chong, Siow Ann; Cloninger, C. Robert; Cohen, David; Cohen, Nadine; Cormican, Paul; Craddock, Nick; Crowley, James J.; Curtis, David; Davidson, Michael; Davis, Kenneth L.; Degenhardt, Franziska; Del Favero, Jurgen; Demontis, Ditte; Dikeos, Dimitris; Dinan, Timothy; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drapeau, Elodie; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Durmishi, Naser; Eichhammer, Peter; Eriksson, Johan; Escott-Price, Valentina; Essioux, Laurent; Fanous, Ayman H.; Farrell, Martilias S.; Frank, Josef; Franke, Lude; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Friedl, Marion; Friedman, Joseph I.; Fromer, Menachem; Genovese, Giulio; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Giegling, Ina; Giusti-Rodríguez, Paola; Godard, Stephanie; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Golimbet, Vera; Gopal, Srihari; Gratten, Jacob; de Haan, Lieuwe; Hammer, Christian; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Mark; Hansen, Thomas; Haroutunian, Vahram; Hartmann, Annette M.; Henskens, Frans A.; Herms, Stefan; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Hoffmann, Per; Hofman, Andrea; Hollegaard, Mads V.; Hougaard, David M.; Ikeda, Masashi; Joa, Inge; Julià, Antonio; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Karachanak-Yankova, Sena; Karjalainen, Juha; Kavanagh, David; Keller, Matthew C.; Kennedy, James L.; Khrunin, Andrey; Kim, Yunjung; Klovins, Janis; Knowles, James A.; Konte, Bettina; Kucinskas, Vaidutis; Kucinskiene, Zita Ausrele; Kuzelova-Ptackova, Hana; Kähler, Anna K.; Laurent, Claudine; Lee, Jimmy; Lee, S. Hong; Legge, Sophie E.; Lerer, Bernard; Li, Miaoxin; Li, Tao; Liang, Kung-Yee; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Limborska, Svetlana; Loughland, Carmel M.; Lubinski, Jan; Lönnqvist, Jouko; Macek, Milan; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Maher, Brion S.; Maier, Wolfgang; Mallet, Jacques; Marsal, Sara; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarley, Robert W.; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M.; Meier, Sandra; Meijer, Carin J.; Melegh, Bela; Melle, Ingrid; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I.; Metspalu, Andres; Michie, Patricia T.; Milani, Lili; Milanova, Vihra; Mokrab, Younes; Morris, Derek W.; Mors, Ole; Murphy, Kieran C.; Murray, Robin M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nelis, Mari; Nenadic, Igor; Nertney, Deborah A.; Nestadt, Gerald; Nicodemus, Kristin K.; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Nisenbaum, Laura; Nordin, Annelie; O'Callaghan, Eadbhard; O'Dushlaine, Colm; O'Neill, F. Anthony; Oh, Sang-Yun; Olincy, Ann; Olsen, Line; van Os, Jim; Pantelis, Christos; Papadimitriou, George N.; Papiol, Sergi; Parkhomenko, Elena; Pato, Michele T.; Paunio, Tiina; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Perkins, Diana O.; Pietiläinen, Olli; Pimm, Jonathan; Pocklington, Andrew J.; Price, Alkes; Pulver, Ann E.; Purcell, Shaun M.; Quested, Digby; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Reichenberg, Abraham; Reimers, Mark A.; Richards, Alexander L.; Roffman, Joshua L.; Roussos, Panos; Ruderfer, Douglas M.; Salomaa, Veikko; Sanders, Alan R.; Schall, Ulrich; Schubert, Christian R.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schwab, Sibylle G.; Scolnick, Edward M.; Scott, Rodney J.; Seidman, Larry J.; Shi, Jianxin; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sim, Kang; Slominsky, Petr; Smoller, Jordan W.; So, Hon-Cheong; Spencer, Chris C. A.; Stahl, Eli A.; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stogmann, Elisabeth; Straub, Richard E.; Strengman, Eric; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Subramaniam, Mythily; Suvisaari, Jaana; Svrakic, Dragan M.; Szatkiewicz, Jin P.; Söderman, Erik; Thirumalai, Srinivas; Toncheva, Draga; Tosato, Sarah; Veijola, Juha; Waddington, John; Walsh, Dermot; Wang, Dai; Wang, Qiang; Webb, Bradley T.; Weiser, Mark; Wildenauer, Dieter B.; Williams, Nigel M.; Williams, Stephanie; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wolen, Aaron R.; Wong, Emily H. M.; Wormley, Brandon K.; Xi, Hualin Simon; Zai, Clement C.; Zheng, Xuebin; Zimprich, Fritz; Wray, Naomi R.; Stefansson, Kari; Visscher, Peter M.; Adolfsson, Rolf; Andreassen, Ole A.; Blackwood, Douglas H. R.; Bramon, Elvira; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Børglum, Anders D.; Darvasi, Ariel; Domenici, Enrico; Ehrenreich, Hannelore; Esko, Tõnu; Gejman, Pablo V.; Gill, Michael; Gurling, Hugh; Hultman, Christina M.; Iwata, Nakao; Jablensky, Assen V.; Jönsson, Erik G.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kirov, George; Knight, Jo; Lencz, Todd; Levinson, Douglas F.; Li, Qingqin S.; Liu, Jianjun; Malhotra, Anil K.; McCarroll, Steven A.; McQuillin, Andrew; Moran, Jennifer L.; Mortensen, Preben B.; Mowry, Bryan J.; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Pato, Carlos N.; Petryshen, Tracey L.; Posthuma, Danielle; Riley, Brien P.; Rujescu, Dan; Sham, Pak C.; Sklar, Pamela; St Clair, David; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Wendland, Jens R.; Werge, Thomas; Daly, Mark J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; O'Donovan, Michael C.

2017-03-01

We have previously shown higher-than-expected rates of schizophrenia in relatives of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), suggesting an aetiological relationship between the diseases. Here, we investigate the genetic relationship between ALS and schizophrenia using genome-wide association study data from over 100,000 unique individuals. Using linkage disequilibrium score regression, we estimate the genetic correlation between ALS and schizophrenia to be 14.3% (7.05-21.6 P=1 × 10-4) with schizophrenia polygenic risk scores explaining up to 0.12% of the variance in ALS (P=8.4 × 10-7). A modest increase in comorbidity of ALS and schizophrenia is expected given these findings (odds ratio 1.08-1.26) but this would require very large studies to observe epidemiologically. We identify five potential novel ALS-associated loci using conditional false discovery rate analysis. It is likely that shared neurobiological mechanisms between these two disorders will engender novel hypotheses in future preclinical and clinical studies.

Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Mumby, P J; Hooten, A J; Steneck, R S; Greenfield, P; Gomez, E; Harvell, C D; Sale, P F; Edwards, A J; Caldeira, K; Knowlton, N; Eakin, C M; Iglesias-Prieto, R; Muthiga, N; Bradbury, R H; Dubi, A; Hatziolos, M E

2007-12-14

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2 degrees C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

Expansion of space station diagnostic capability to include serological identification of viral and bacterial infections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejtmancik, Kelly E.

1987-01-01

It is necessary that an adequate microbiology capability be provided as part of the Health Maintenance Facility (HMF) to support expected microbial disease events during long periods of space flight. The applications of morphological and biochemical studies to confirm the presence of certain bacterial and fungal disease agents are currently available and under consideration. This confirmation would be greatly facilitated through employment of serological methods to aid in the identification for not only bacterial and fungal agents, but viruses as well. A number of serological approached were considered, particularly the use of Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISAs), which could be utilized during space flight conditions. A solid phase, membrane supported ELISA for the detection of Bordetella pertussis was developed to show a potential model system that would meet the HMF requirements and specifications for the future space station. A second model system for the detection of Legionella pneumophilia, an expected bacterial disease agent, is currently under investigation.

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East.

PubMed

Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

2018-03-13

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a "highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring" pattern which switches to the "increase in autumn, decrease in spring" pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.

Motivational Mechanisms and Outcome Expectancies Underlying the Approach Bias toward Addictive Substances.

PubMed

Watson, P; de Wit, S; Hommel, Bernhard; Wiers, R W

2012-01-01

Human behavior can be paradoxical, in that actions can be initiated that are seemingly incongruent with an individual's explicit desires. This is most commonly observed in drug addiction, where maladaptive behavior (i.e., drug seeking) appears to be compulsive, continuing at great personal cost. Approach biases toward addictive substances have been correlated with actual drug-use in a number of studies, suggesting that this measure can, in some cases, index everyday maladaptive tendencies. At present it is unclear whether this bias to drug cues is a Pavlovian conditioned approach response, a habitual response, the result of a Pavlovian-instrumental transfer process, or a goal-directed action in the sense that expectancy of the rewarding effects of drugs controls approach. We consider this question by combining the theoretical framework of associative learning with the available evidence from approach bias research. Although research investigating the relative contributions of these mechanisms to the approach bias is to date relatively limited, we review existing studies and also outline avenues for future research.

Genetic correlation between amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and schizophrenia.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Russell L; Schijven, Dick; van Rheenen, Wouter; van Eijk, Kristel R; O'Brien, Margaret; Kahn, René S; Ophoff, Roel A; Goris, An; Bradley, Daniel G; Al-Chalabi, Ammar; van den Berg, Leonard H; Luykx, Jurjen J; Hardiman, Orla; Veldink, Jan H

2017-03-21

We have previously shown higher-than-expected rates of schizophrenia in relatives of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), suggesting an aetiological relationship between the diseases. Here, we investigate the genetic relationship between ALS and schizophrenia using genome-wide association study data from over 100,000 unique individuals. Using linkage disequilibrium score regression, we estimate the genetic correlation between ALS and schizophrenia to be 14.3% (7.05-21.6; P=1 × 10 -4 ) with schizophrenia polygenic risk scores explaining up to 0.12% of the variance in ALS (P=8.4 × 10 -7 ). A modest increase in comorbidity of ALS and schizophrenia is expected given these findings (odds ratio 1.08-1.26) but this would require very large studies to observe epidemiologically. We identify five potential novel ALS-associated loci using conditional false discovery rate analysis. It is likely that shared neurobiological mechanisms between these two disorders will engender novel hypotheses in future preclinical and clinical studies.

Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras.

PubMed

Eiserhardt, Wolf L; Borchsenius, Finn; Plum, Christoffer M; Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-03-01

When taxa go extinct, unique evolutionary history is lost. If extinction is selective, and the intrinsic vulnerabilities of taxa show phylogenetic signal, more evolutionary history may be lost than expected under random extinction. Under what conditions this occurs is insufficiently known. We show that late Cenozoic climate change induced phylogenetically selective regional extinction of northern temperate trees because of phylogenetic signal in cold tolerance, leading to significantly and substantially larger than random losses of phylogenetic diversity (PD). The surviving floras in regions that experienced stronger extinction are phylogenetically more clustered, indicating that non-random losses of PD are of increasing concern with increasing extinction severity. Using simulations, we show that a simple threshold model of survival given a physiological trait with phylogenetic signal reproduces our findings. Our results send a strong warning that we may expect future assemblages to be phylogenetically and possibly functionally depauperate if anthropogenic climate change affects taxa similarly. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Experimental investigation of bubbling in particle beds with high solid holdup

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Songbai; Hirahara, Daisuke; Tanaka, Youhei

2011-02-15

A series of experiments on bubbling behavior in particle beds was performed to clarify three-phase flow dynamics in debris beds formed after core-disruptive accident (CDA) in sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors (FBRs). Although in the past, several experiments have been performed in packed beds to investigate flow patterns, most of these were under comparatively higher gas flow rate, which may be not expected during an early sodium boiling period in debris beds. The current experiments were conducted under two dimensional (2D) and three dimensional (3D) conditions separately, in which water was used as liquid phase, and bubbles were generated by injectingmore » nitrogen gas from the bottom of the viewing tank. Various particle-bed parameters were varied, including particle-bed height (from 30 mm to 200 mm), particle diameter (from 0.4 mm to 6 mm) and particle type (beads made of acrylic, glass, alumina and zirconia). Under these experimental conditions, three kinds of bubbling behavior were observed for the first time using digital image analysis methods that were further verified by quantitative detailed analysis of bubbling properties including surface bubbling frequency and surface bubble size under both 2D and 3D conditions. This investigation, which hopefully provides fundamental data for a better understanding and an improved estimation of CDAs in FBRs, is expected to benefit future analysis and verification of computer models developed in advanced fast reactor safety analysis codes. (author)« less

Modeling and dynamic monitoring of ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, L.; Ji, Lei; Tieszen, Larry L.; Bliss, N.B.

2008-01-01

Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented by the growing season integral of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is a measure of greenness that can be interpreted in terms of plant growth or photosynthetic activity (gross primary productivity). The approach illustrates the status and trends of ecosystem changes and separates the influences of climate and local site conditions from the influences of disturbances and land management.We emphasize the ability to quantify ecosystem processes, not simply changes in land cover, across the entire period of the remote sensing archive (Wylie and others, 2008). The method builds upon remotely sensed measures of vegetation greenness for each growing season. By itself, however, a time series of greenness often reflects annual climate variations in temperature and precipitation. Our method seeks to remove the influence of climate so that changes in underlying ecological conditions are identified and quantified. We define an "expected ecosystem performance" to represent the greenness response expected in a particular year given the climate of that year. We distinguish "performance anomalies" as cases where the ecosystem response is significantly different from the expected ecosystem performance. Maps of the performance anomalies (fig. 1) and trends in the anomalies give valuable information on the ecosystems for land managers and policy makers at a resolution of 1 km to 250 m.

Women in engineering: A case study in preparation, persistence, and response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelman, Colin Kim

This qualitative case study examined women students' perceptions of major influences on their successful completion of a Bachelor of Science degree in nine different disciplines of engineering. In-depth interviews were conducted with 13 female engineering students at an Institute of Technology over the period of a school year. The conceptual framework of analysis linked theoretical principles to categories of analysis that were correlated to three outcomes: preparation, persistence, and response. Emergent properties generated from in-depth interviews were then linked to the categories of preparation, interest-congruence, gender identity, social acceptance, campus culture, learning styles, classroom and faculty relations, sense of accomplishment, tokenism, career expectations, and family planning. Data collection was triangulated through individual interviews and a focus group with the 13 respondents and comparisons to quantitative research outcomes concerning self-confidence, persistence, satisfaction, and career expectations. The findings generally support the theories and propositions outlined in the conceptual framework constructed for this study. The most important of these findings include the impact of social conditioning on gender and academic preparation, the correlation of peer group relations to persistence, and the future expectations female students derive from their experiences over their 4 years of study. The data strongly suggest that traditional gender roles are a social conditioning process that can be overcome, permitting women to succeed in nontraditional academic career fields. Further research could build on these findings to explore social changes in attitudes about women engineers in the workplace, comparisons between men and women's persistence styles, and the importance of science and mathematics intervention programs for girls.

Gratitude, protective buffering, and cognitive dissonance: How families respond to pediatric whole exome sequencing in the absence of actionable results.

PubMed

Werner-Lin, Allison; Zaspel, Lori; Carlson, Mae; Mueller, Rebecca; Walser, Sarah A; Desai, Ria; Bernhardt, Barbara A

2018-03-01

Clinical genome and exome sequencing (CGES) may identify variants leading to targeted management of existing conditions. Yet, CGES often fails to identify pathogenic diagnostic variants and introduces uncertainties by detecting variants of uncertain significance (VUS) and secondary findings. This study investigated how families understand findings and adjust their perspectives on CGES. As part of NIH's Clinical Sequencing Exploratory Research Consortium, children were recruited from clinics at the Children's Hospital of Pennsylvania (CHOP) and offered exome sequencing. Primary pathogenic and possibly pathogenic, and some secondary findings were returned. Investigators digitally recorded results disclosure sessions and conducted 3-month follow up interviews with 10 adolescents and a parent. An interdisciplinary team coded all transcripts. Participants were initially disappointed with findings, yet reactions evolved within disclosure sessions and at 3-month interviews toward acceptance and satisfaction. Families erroneously expected, and prepared extensively, to learn about risk for common conditions. During disclosure sessions, parents and adolescents varied in how they monitored and responded to each others reactions. Several misinterpreted, or overestimated, the utility of findings to attribute meaning and achieve closure for the CGES experience. Participants perceived testing as an opportunity to improve disease management despite results that did not introduce new treatments or diagnoses. Future research may examine whether families experience cognitive dissonance regarding discrepancies between expectations and findings, and how protective buffering minimizes the burden of disappointment on loved ones. As CGES is increasingly integrated into clinical care providers must contend with tempering family expectations and interpretations of findings while managing complex medical care. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Macroinvertebrate-based assessment of biological condition at selected sites in the Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 2000-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zuellig, Robert E.; Bruce, James F.; Healy, Brian D.; Williams, Cory A.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado River Water Conservation District, Eagle County, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority, Colorado Department of Transportation, City of Aurora, Town of Eagle, Town of Gypsum, Town of Minturn, Town of Vail, Vail Resorts, Colorado Springs Utilities, Denver Water, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS), compiled macroinvertebrate (73 sites, 124 samples) data previously collected in the Eagle River watershed from selected USGS and FS studies, 2000-07. These data were analyzed to assess the biological condition (that is, biologically ?degraded? or ?good?) at selected sites in the Eagle River watershed and determine if site class (for example, urban or undeveloped) described biological condition. An independently developed predictive model was applied to calculate a site-specific measure of taxonomic completeness for macroinvertebrate communities, where taxonomic completeness was expressed as the ratio of observed (O) taxa to those expected (E) to occur at each site. Macroinvertebrate communities were considered degraded at sites were O/E values were less than 0.80, indicating that at least 20 percent of expected taxa were not observed. Sites were classified into one of four classes (undeveloped, adjacent road or highway or both, mixed, urban) using a combination of riparian land-cover characteristics, examination of topographic maps and aerial imagery, screening for exceedances in water-quality standards, and best professional judgment. Analysis of variance was used to determine if site class accounted for variability in mean macroinvertebrate O/E values. Finally, macroinvertebrate taxa observed more or less frequently than expected at urban sites were indentified. This study represents the first standardized assessment of biological condition of selected sites distributed across the Eagle River watershed. Of the 73 sites evaluated, just over half (55 percent) were considered in good biological condition (O/E greater than 0.80). The remaining sites were either consistently biologically degraded (30 percent; O/E less than 0.80) or varied annually between good and degraded condition (15 percent; O/E is less than or greater than 0.80). Sites primarily affected by urbanization were among the most severely degraded (lowest O/E values) when compared to other site classes. Although most urban sites were among the most severely degraded (lowest O/E values), a few sites had nearly intact macroinvertebrate communities (O/E near 1.0). Similar observations were noted among sites classified as mixed. Thirteen macroinvertebrate taxa were indentified that occurred more or less frequently than expected at urban sites. Additionally, six other taxa were impartial (tolerant) to the same conditions. Combined, these 19 taxa provide an opportunity to enhance the interpretation of future studies in the Eagle River watershed, but will require better insight into the responses of these taxa to specific stressors. Understanding the sources of variability affecting biological condition along with why some sites expected to be degraded, but showed otherwise, will have clear implications for mitigation efforts. Integrating results of this study with field and laboratory investigations will greatly enhance the ability to identify causal factors affecting biological condition at degraded sites, the logical next step. Information generated from such integrative studies will be imperative for well targeted mitigation efforts in the Eagle River watershed.

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables using all valid combinations of the values of input variables to simulate all possible outcomes. In our case the output is the expected risk (Euro/year) for each object (e.g. water intake) considered and the entire hydropower generation system. The output is again a distribution that is interpreted by the decision makers as the final strategy depends on the needs and requirements of the end-user, which may be driven by personal preferences. In this presentation, we will show a way on how we used the uncertain information on avalanche activity in future to subsequently use it in a commercial risk software and therefore bringing the knowledge of natural hazard experts to decision makers.

Survival and settling of larval Macoma balthica in a large-scale mesocosm experiment at different fCO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansson, Anna; Lischka, Silke; Boxhammer, Tim; Schulz, Kai G.; Norkko, Joanna

2016-06-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are causing severe changes in the global inorganic carbon balance of the oceans. Associated ocean acidification is expected to pose a major threat to marine ecosystems worldwide, and it is also expected to be amplified in the Baltic Sea where the system is already exposed to relatively large natural seasonal and diel pH fluctuations. We studied the responses of larvae of the benthic key species Macoma balthica to a range of future CO2 scenarios using six ˜ 55 m3 mesocosms encompassing the entire pelagic community. The mesocosms were deployed in the northern Baltic Sea in June 2012. We focused on the survival, growth and subsequent settlement process of Macoma balthica when exposed to different levels of future CO2. The size and time to settlement of M. balthica increased along the CO2 gradient, suggesting a developmental delay. With ongoing climate change, both the frequency and extent of regularly occurring high CO2 conditions are likely to increase, and a permanent pH decrease will likely occur. The strong impact of increasing CO2 levels on early-stage bivalves is alarming as these stages are crucial for sustaining viable populations, and a failure in their recruitment would ultimately lead to negative effects on the population.

Chronic Pain Status, Nicotine Withdrawal, and Expectancies for Smoking Cessation among Lighter Smokers

PubMed Central

Ditre, Joseph W.; Kosiba, Jesse D.; Zale, Emily L.; Zvolensky, Michael J.; Maisto, Stephen A.

2016-01-01

Background Chronic pain and tobacco smoking are both highly prevalent and comorbid conditions, and chronic pain may pose a barrier to smoking cessation. Purpose The objective of this study was to test associations between chronic pain status and several smoking-related factors that have previously been shown to predict cessation outcomes. Method Daily smokers (N = 205) were recruited from the general population to complete an online survey of pain and tobacco smoking. Results Results indicated that smokers with chronic pain (vs. no chronic pain) consumed more cigarettes per day, scored higher on an established measure of tobacco dependence, reported having less confidence in their ability to quit, and endorsed expectations for experiencing greater difficulty and more severe nicotine withdrawal during future cessation attempts. Mediation analyses further indicated that the inverse association between chronic pain and abstinence self-efficacy was indirectly influenced by past cessation failures. Conclusions These findings suggest that individuals with chronic pain may constitute an important subgroup of tobacco smokers who tend to experience lower confidence and greater difficulty when attempting to quit. Future research would benefit from replicating these findings among older and more diverse samples of heavier tobacco smokers, and extending this work to the study of prospective relations between chronic pain status and cessation-relevant processes/outcomes over the course of a quit attempt. PMID:26813264

Future Time Orientation and Student Expectations: An Empirical Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amyx, Douglas; Bristow, Dennis

2004-01-01

Navajo and Anglo college students' time orientation scores from the Future Time Orientation (FTO) Scale (Bristol & Amyx, 1996) were analyzed and compared. Anglo students were found to be significantly more future time oriented in two of the three dimensions: temporal distance and involvement with time. Future time orientation was used to explain…

Students' expectations of the future: hopelessness as a barrier to self-determination.

PubMed

Palmer, S B; Wehmeyer, M L

1998-04-01

The development of self-determination depends on the emergence of positive beliefs about oneself and one's future. Research has suggested that these positive perceptions are the outcome of a process of learning and using problem-solving skills and the achievement of perceived or actual control, referred to as learned hopefulness. Expectations for the future (e.g., hopefulness/hopelessness) of students with mental retardation, learning disabilities, or students without disabilities were examined. Students with mental retardation were significantly less hopeful than were their peers with learning disabilities or without disabilities. Implications from these findings for the development of self-determination were discussed.

Low-flow characteristics of streams under natural and diversion conditions, Waipiʻo Valley, Island of Hawaiʻi, Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Richard A.

2012-01-01

Over the past 100 years, natural streamflow in Waipiʻo Valley has been reduced by the transfer of water out of the valley by Upper and Lower Hāmākua Ditches. The physical condition and diversion practices along the two ditch systems have varied widely over the years, and as a result, so have their effects on natural streamflow in Waipiʻo Valley. Recent renovation and improvements to Lower Hāmākua Ditch system, along with proposals for its future operation and water-diversion strategies, have unknown implications. The purpose of this report is to quantify the availability of streamflow and to determine the effects of current and proposed diversion strategies on the low-flow hydrology in Waipiʻo Valley. In this report, the low-flow hydrology of Waipiʻo Valley is described in terms of flow-duration statistics. Flow-duration statistics were computed for three locations in the Waipiʻo Valley study area where long-term surface-water gaging stations have been operated. Using a variety of streamflow record-extension techniques, flow-duration statistics were estimated at an additional 13 locations where only few historical data are available or where discharge measurements were made as part of this study. Flow-duration statistics were computed to reflect natural conditions, current (2000-2005) diversion conditions, and proposed future diversion conditions at the 16 locations. At the downstream limit of the study area, on Wailoa Stream at an altitude of 190 feet, a baseline for evaluating the availability of streamflow is provided by computed flow-duration statistics that are representative of natural, no-diversion conditions. At the Wailoa gaging station, 95- and 50-percentile discharges under natural conditions were determined to be 86 and 112 cubic feet per second, respectively. Under 1965-1969 diversion conditions, natural 95- and 50-percentile discharges were reduced by 52 and 53 percent, to 41 and 53 cubic feet per second, respectively. Under current (2000-2005) diversion conditions, natural 95- and 50-percentile discharges were reduced by 21 and 24 percent, to 68 and 85 cubic feet per second, respectively. Under proposed future diversion conditions, natural 95- and 50-percentile discharges would be reduced by 33 and 24 percent, to 58 and 85 cubic feet per second, respectively. Compared to discharges that reflect current (2000-2005) diversion conditions, proposed future diversion conditions would reduce 95-percentile discharges, which are representative of moderate drought levels in the stream, by 15 percent. No change would be expected in 50-percentile discharges, which are representative of normal conditions. The effects of current (2000-2005) and proposed future diversion conditions on the natural flow of streams in the Waipiʻo Valley study area differ, depending on the location. Under current (2000-2005) diversion conditions, reductions in natural 95- or 50-percentile discharges of greater than 30 percent were found in Kawainui Stream downstream from Upper Hamakua Ditch to an altitude of about 1,435 feet and in the reach of Waimā Stream between Upper and Lower Hāmākua Ditches. Under proposed future diversion conditions, reductions in natural 95- or 50-percentile discharges of greater than 30 percent were found in Kawainui Stream downstream from Upper Hamakua Ditch to an altitude of about 1,435 feet, in the reach of Waimā Stream between Upper and Lower Hāmākua Ditches, and along most stream reaches downstream from Lower Hāmākua Ditch, except for Waimā Stream.

Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

2010-05-01

Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that is currently being implemented within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

Gender and the nocebo response following conditioning and expectancy.

PubMed

Klosterhalfen, Sibylle; Kellermann, Sandra; Braun, Silke; Kowalski, Axel; Schrauth, Markus; Zipfel, Stephan; Enck, Paul

2009-04-01

To investigate the role of Pavlovian conditioning and expectancy and of gender on the nocebo effects. Conditioning experiment: Forty-eight healthy male and female volunteers were investigated for 3 days using a standard rotation procedure. Subjects in the experimental group received a salient oral stimulus prior to rotation; subjects in the control group received the stimulus 12 h after rotations on Days 1 and 2; on Day 3, all subjects received the stimulus prior to rotation. Expectancy experiment: Another 48 healthy subjects were rotated 5 x 1 min once only. All subjects received the same oral stimulus immediately prior to rotation; subjects in the experimental group were told that the symptoms might worsen with the stimulus; controls did not receive additional information. In both experiments, symptom rating (SR) and rotation tolerance (RT) were determined. Conditioning significantly reduced RT (P=.015) and increased SR (P=.024). For both RT and SR, a significant "day x group x gender" effect was found (P=.044; SR: P=.011) indicating that conditioning was more effective in women. Expectancies lowered RT (P=.085) without affecting SR. There was a significant "rotation x gender" interaction on RT (P=.005) indicating that the expectancy was more effective in men. Women responded stronger to conditioning while men responded to expectancies, but to a lesser degree. It needs to be determined whether this is restricted to nausea-specific conditions or can be generalized across clinical and experimental conditions.

The Malleability of Possible Selves and Expectations regarding Aging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bardach, Shoshana H.; Gayer, Christopher C.; Clinkinbeard, Tiffanie; Zanjani, Faika; Watkins, John F.

2010-01-01

Many people are apprehensive about old age and their future years. This pilot study sought to improve participants' sense of possibility in, and expectations for, old age. Students and middle-aged volunteers completed a survey including the Expectations Regarding Aging 38-item questionnaire (ERA-38) and a possible-selves questionnaire before and…

Self-Concepts, Locus of Control and Performance Expectations of Learning Disabled Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, H.; Saklofski, D. H.

1985-01-01

Compared to 45 normally achieving students, 45 learning disabled six- to 12-year-olds had lower self-concepts, more external locus of control orientations, and lower performance expectations. Children new to the resource room had higher expectations for future success than Ss with experience in the resource room. (CL)

Aspirations, Expectations and Delinquency: The Moderating Effect of Impulse Control.

PubMed

Mahler, Alissa; Simmons, Cortney; Frick, Paul J; Steinberg, Laurence; Cauffman, Elizabeth

2017-07-01

Although prior research finds a robust link between delinquent behavior and expectations, or an adolescent's perceived likelihood of obtaining one's future goals, fewer studies have evaluated aspirations, or the perceived importance of achieving one's goals. In addition, few studies consider how individual traits such as impulsivity affect the degree to which expectations and aspirations motivate or deter delinquent behavior. We contribute to this body of research by evaluating the independent effects of expectations and aspirations, and the aspiration-expectation gap (i.e., strain) on delinquent behavior during the year following an adolescent's first arrest using a large (N = 1117), racially/ethnically diverse sample of male adolescents (46.55% Latino, 35.81% Black, 14.95% White, and 2.69% Other race). In addition, we considered how impulse control interacts with expectations, aspirations, and strain to motivate behavior. Our results indicated that both aspirations, expectations and strain uniquely influence criminal behavior. Importantly, aspirations interacted with impulse control, such that aspirations affected delinquency only among youth with higher impulse control. Our findings suggest that aspirations may only influence behavior if youth also have the psychosocial capabilities to consider their future aspirations when behaving in the present.

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R

2007-01-01

The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.

PubMed

Anderegg, William R L; Wolf, Adam; Arango-Velez, Adriana; Choat, Brendan; Chmura, Daniel J; Jansen, Steven; Kolb, Thomas; Li, Shan; Meinzer, Frederick; Pita, Pilar; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sperry, John S; Wolfe, Brett T; Pacala, Stephen

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.

Pilot clinic study of Project EX for smoking cessation with Spanish adolescents.

PubMed

Espada, José P; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia; Guillén-Riquelme, Alejandro; Soto, Daniel; Sussman, Steve

2015-06-01

Despite efforts to prevent smoking, the prevalence of smoking in Spanish adolescents remains high. So far, there are no evidence-based smoking cessation programs for adolescents in Spain. This study describes the evaluation of Project EX, an eight-session school-based clinic smoking cessation program, with Spanish cigarette smokers 13-19 years of age, from 9 schools (four program condition schools and five control condition schools). A group-randomized controlled trial was used. There were 211 smokers at baseline (112 program group, and 99 control group). Evaluation involved an immediate pretest and posttest survey (administered five-weeks later) and six-month follow-up (after the immediate posttest). At immediate posttest, Project EX significantly reduced future nicotine dependence scores (mFTQ; p<.001), and increased intention to quit smoking (p<.001), and led to a higher previous day (prior to assessment) quit rate (p<.03). At the six-month follow-up, the percentage of quitters in the program group was 14.28%, whereas no smokers quit smoking in the control group (p<.04), and Project EX had a significant influence on future smoking expectation (p=.006) and overall level of 30-day smoking. Results for the Project EX school-based clinic are promising for adolescent smokers in Spain, although difficulties in recruitment and high attrition are of concern. Findings and limitations are discussed and suggestions for future research are suggested. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate?

PubMed Central

Cunze, Sarah; Heydel, Felix; Tackenberg, Oliver

2013-01-01

Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species. PMID:23894290

Successful amplification of DNA aboard the International Space Station.

PubMed

Boguraev, Anna-Sophia; Christensen, Holly C; Bonneau, Ashley R; Pezza, John A; Nichols, Nicole M; Giraldez, Antonio J; Gray, Michelle M; Wagner, Brandon M; Aken, Jordan T; Foley, Kevin D; Copeland, D Scott; Kraves, Sebastian; Alvarez Saavedra, Ezequiel

2017-01-01

As the range and duration of human ventures into space increase, it becomes imperative that we understand the effects of the cosmic environment on astronaut health. Molecular technologies now widely used in research and medicine will need to become available in space to ensure appropriate care of astronauts. The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is the gold standard for DNA analysis, yet its potential for use on-orbit remains under-explored. We describe DNA amplification aboard the International Space Station (ISS) through the use of a miniaturized miniPCR system. Target sequences in plasmid, zebrafish genomic DNA, and bisulfite-treated DNA were successfully amplified under a variety of conditions. Methylation-specific primers differentially amplified bisulfite-treated samples as would be expected under standard laboratory conditions. Our findings establish proof of concept for targeted detection of DNA sequences during spaceflight and lay a foundation for future uses ranging from environmental monitoring to on-orbit diagnostics.

The global economic burden of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Ehteshami-Afshar, S; FitzGerald, J M; Doyle-Waters, M M; Sadatsafavi, M

2016-01-01

Non-communicable diseases are now the number one cause of disabilities and loss of life expectancy. Among them, chronic respiratory conditions constitute a major class. The burden of chronic respiratory diseases is generally increasing across the globe, and asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are among the main causes of mortality and morbidity. However, the direct and indirect costs of these conditions vary across jurisdictions. This article reports on recent estimates of the costs of asthma and COPD, with a focus on comparing disease burden across different regions. Overall, there is tremendous variation in per capita annual costs of asthma and COPD. However, the methodology of the cost-of-illness studies is also vastly different, making it difficult to associate differences in reported costs to differences in the true burden of asthma and COPD. Suggestions are provided towards improving the validity and comparability of future studies.

Life expectancy living with HIV: recent estimates and future implications.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Fumiyo; May, Margaret; Phillips, Andrew

2013-02-01

The life expectancy of people living with HIV has dramatically increased since effective antiretroviral therapy has been available, and still continues to improve. Here, we review the latest literature on estimates of life expectancy and consider the implications for future research. With timely diagnosis, access to a variety of current drugs and good lifelong adherence, people with recently acquired infections can expect to have a life expectancy which is nearly the same as that of HIV-negative individuals. Modelling studies suggest that life expectancy could improve further if there were increased uptake of HIV testing, better antiretroviral regimens and treatment strategies, and the adoption of healthier lifestyles by those living with HIV. In particular, earlier diagnosis is one of the most important factors associated with better life expectancy. A consequence of improved survival is the increasing number of people with HIV who are aged over 50 years old, and further research into the impact of ageing on HIV-positive people will therefore become crucial. The development of age-specific HIV treatment and management guidelines is now called for. Analyses on cohort studies and mathematical modelling studies have been used to estimate life expectancy of those with HIV, providing useful insights of importance to individuals and healthcare planning.

Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

PubMed Central

Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

2015-01-01

Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

Gender and Orientations toward the Future: Links to Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greene, Barbara A.; DeBacker, Teresa K.

2004-01-01

Literature on future orientation and motivation was examined for gender differences. Research revealed gender differences from five theoretical orientations: achievement motivation, future time orientation, possible selves, expectancy-value, and social-cognitive. Some of those differences seemed best explained in terms of generational differences…

An Experimental Evaluation of Competing Age-Predictions of Future Time Perspective between Workplace and Retirement Domains.

PubMed

Kerry, Matthew J; Embretson, Susan E

2017-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) is defined as "perceptions of the future as being limited or open-ended" (Lang and Carstensen, 2002; p. 125). The construct figures prominently in both workplace and retirement domains, but the age-predictions are competing: Workplace research predicts decreasing FTP age-change, in contrast, retirement scholars predict increasing FTP age-change. For the first time, these competing predictions are pitted in an experimental manipulation of subjective life expectancy (SLE). A sample of N = 207 older adults (age 45-60) working full-time (>30-h/week) were randomly assigned to SLE questions framed as either 'Live-to' or 'Die-by' to evaluate competing predictions for FTP. Results indicate general support for decreasing age-change in FTP, indicated by independent-sample t -tests showing lower FTP in the 'Die-by' framing condition. Further general-linear model analyses were conducted to test for interaction effects of retirement planning with experimental framings on FTP and intended retirement; While retirement planning buffered FTP's decrease, simple-effects also revealed that retirement planning increased intentions for sooner retirement, but lack of planning increased intentions for later retirement. Discussion centers on practical implications of our findings and consequences validity evidence in future empirical research of FTP in both workplace and retirement domains.

Predicting the Future Impact of Droughts on Ungulate Populations in Arid and Semi-Arid Environments

PubMed Central

Duncan, Clare; Chauvenet, Aliénor L. M.; McRae, Louise M.; Pettorelli, Nathalie

2012-01-01

Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change. PMID:23284700

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhan, Asli; Ünal, Yurdanur S.

2017-04-01

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios A. ILHAN ve Y. S. UNAL Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology In the study, 50 km resolution downscaled results of two different Earth System Models (ESM) HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM with regional climate model of RegCM are used to estimate present and future climate conditions over Mediterranean Basin. The purpose of this study is to compare the projections of two ESMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) over the region of interest seasonally and annually with 50 km resolution. Temperature and precipitation parameters for reference period (1971-2000) and future (2015-2100) are analyzed. The average temperature and total precipitation distributions of each downscaled ESM simulations were compared with observation data (Climate Research Unit-CRU data) to explore the capability of each model for the representation of the current climate. According to reference period values of CRU, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, it is seen that both models are warmer and wetter than observations and have positive temperature biases only around Caspian Sea and positive precipitation biases over Eastern and Central Europe. The future projections (from 2015 to 2100) of HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are compared with reference period (from 1971 to 2000) and analyzed for temperature and precipitation parameters. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES forced by RCP8.5 scenario produces higher temperatures than the MPI-ESM-MR. The reasons of this warming can be sensitivity of HadGEM2-ES to greenhouse gases and high radiative forcing (+8.5 W/m2). On the other hand, MPI-ESM produce more precipitation than HadGEM2-ES. In order to analyze regional responses of the climate model chains, five main regions are selected which are Turkey, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North Africa. The average biases of the HadGEM2-ES+RegCM and MPI-ESM-MR+RegCM model chains are also calculated for temperature and precipitation variables, and future expectations in each region are discussed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. According to the regional analysis, North Africa is the warmest region for HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR, and Central Europe warms up similar to North Africa in MPI-ESM-MR coupled simulations under both RCPs. In addition, Eastern Europe is expected to be the wettest region in both models and in both emission scenarios. On the other hand, the driest conditions are expected over Western Europe for MPI-ESM-MR and over Turkey for HadGEM2-ES under RCPs.

The Past as a Window to the Future - What Does Long Term Research in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica Tell Us About the Trajectory of Polar Ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooseff, M. N.; Adams, B.; Barrett, J. E.; Doran, P. T.; Fountain, A. G.; Lyons, W. B.; McKnight, D. M.; Takacs-Vesbach, C. D.; Priscu, J. C.; Sokol, E.; Virginia, R. A.; Wall, D. H.

2015-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica represent the largest ice-free area of the continent. The landscape is dominated by glaciers, exposed soils, streams, and ice-covered lakes, and hosts an incredible ecosystem that is largely driven by microbes and some invertebrates. Given the low air temperatures (-18C annual mean), little precipitation (<10 cm water equivalent/yr), and lack of vegetation cover, the Dry Valleys ecosystem is strongly influenced by physical processes. In the past two decades, summer conditions have been observed to fluctuate significantly. From 1986-2001, the area experienced a cooling trend and the ecosystem responded with decreasing soil invertebrate populations, decreased streamflow, decreased primary productivity in lakes, and decreased algal biomass in streams. Since 2001, 3 very high glacial melt years have occurred producing record stream flows and extensive wetted soils. During this most recent decade, the levels of closed-basin lakes have risen substantially, with increasing heat contents, and we have observed increased permafrost degradation along streambanks. Here we assess the ecosystem responses of the cooling 'press' that occurred from 1986-2001 and the more most recent decade that has had several strong pulses of energy driving the system to develop expectations for the future state and function of this polar desert ecosystem. We propose that the future trajectory of climate and energy input to the region will likely be more inconsistent than the cooling period was. Hence, the ecosystem will be consistently responding to pulses of change over varying time periods. We also expect that recovery of the ozone layer over Antarctica may play an important role in modifying both regional climate and the Dry Valleys ecosystem.

Larval development and settling of Macoma balthica in a large-scale mesocosm experiment at different fCO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansson, A.; Lischka, S.; Boxhammer, T.; Schulz, K. G.; Norkko, J.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are causing severe changes in the global inorganic carbon balance of the oceans. Associated ocean acidification is expected to impose a major threat to marine ecosystems worldwide, and it is also expected to be amplified in the Baltic Sea where the system is already at present exposed to relatively large natural seasonal and diel pH fluctuations. The response of organisms to future ocean acidification has primarily been studied in single-species experiments, whereas the knowledge of community-wide responses is still limited. To study responses of the Baltic Sea pelagic community to a range of future CO2-scenarios, six ∼ 55 m3 pelagic mesocosms were deployed in the northern Baltic Sea in June 2012. In this specific study we focused on the tolerance, development and subsequent settlement process of the larvae of the benthic key-species Macoma balthica when exposed to different levels of future CO2. We found that the settling of M. balthica was delayed along the increasing CO2 gradient of the mesocosms. Also, when exposed to increasing CO2 levels larvae settled at a larger size, indicating a developmental delay. With on-going climate change, both the frequency and extent of regularly occurring high CO2 conditions is likely to increase, and a permanent pH decrease will likely occur. The strong impact of increasing CO2 levels on early-stage bivalves is alarming as these stages are crucial for sustaining viable populations, and a failure in their recruitment would ultimately lead to negative effects on the population.

Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

While there is a large consensus that plant-plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation-climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant-plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change.

Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change

PubMed Central

Anthelme, Fabien; Cavieres, Lohengrin A.; Dangles, Olivier

2014-01-01

While there is a large consensus that plant–plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation–climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant–plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change. PMID:25161660

Assessing the impacts of extended drought conditions and global warming on groundwater resources in Iowa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acar, O.; Franz, K.; Simpkins, W. W.

2013-12-01

Extended drought conditions that affected much of the U.S. throughout 2012 and continued into 2013 are bringing climate change to the forefront of public attention. Long-term effects of an extended dry spell on groundwater is especially concerning as these resources are essential for meeting drinking water demands, supporting agricultural and industrial activities, and maintaining water levels in rivers and lakes. Thus, the impact of extended drought conditions on the entire hydrologic cycle needs to be well understood to guide future resource and land management decisions. This study aims to explore the impact of extended drought conditions on groundwater resources in a representative Iowa watershed using Regional Climate Model scenarios implemented through HydroGeoSphere, a physically-based, surface water-groundwater model. Estimating the impacts of climate changes on groundwater resources requires representation of the full hydrological system, i.e. the connection between the atmospheric and surface-subsurface processes, in a realistic way. In the HydroGeoSphere model, surface and subsurface flow equations are solved simultaneously, and the interdependence of processes like actual evapotranspiration and recharge is handled explicitly. Using such state-of-the-art modeling tools, we seek to address the consequences of changing climate extremes (that have already been experienced and expected to continue over long periods in the future) on the hydrologic cycle of our pilot study area, the South Fork watershed in north-central Iowa. The results will provide a baseline for investigating mitigation strategies in agricultural practices and water use due to changes in the wet and dry cycles of the regional hydrologic cycle.

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Past and Future Drought Regimes in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Burak; Topcu, Sevilay; Turkes, Murat; Sen, Baha

2010-05-01

Climate variability in the 20th century was characterized by apparent precipitation variability at both temporal and spatial scales. In addition to the well-known characteristic seasonal and year-to-year variability, some marked and long-term changes in precipitation occurred in Turkey, particularly after the early 1970s. Drought, originating from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended time period (which is usually a season or more) has become a recurring phenomenon in Turkey in the past few decades. Spatially coherent with the significant drought events since early 1970s, water stress and shortages for all water user sectors have also reached their critical points in Turkey. Analyzing the historical occurrence of drought provides an understanding of the range of climate possibilities for a country, resulting in more informed management decision-making. However, future projections about spatial and temporal changes in drought characteristics such as frequency, intensity and duration can be challenging for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Hence, the objectives of this study are (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, (2) to predict potential intensity, frequency and duration of droughts in Turkey for the future (2070-2100). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Percent to Normal Index (PNI) have been used to assess the drought characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 52 stations (representative of all kinds of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). The future rainfall series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM3) for IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario conditions. For verification of RegCM3 simulations, the model was performed for the reference period and simulated rainfall data were used for computing two drought indices (SPI and PNI) for the 1960-1990 period. Then, to proof the capturing capacity of the RegCM3, these results for the reference period were compared with SPI and PNI values calculated using observed climatic data. The validated climate model was used for performing climatic data for the future 30-year period, and using the projected climate data, the SPI and PNI values were computed for the future conditions, which indicates the drought events within future 30- year period. Furthermore, to determine the likely changes between reference and future periods, the projected future rainfall series was compared with the average rainfall amount derived from the reference period in SPI and PNI calculations. Finally, the maps were drawn to determine the spatial changes of droughts. RegCM3 model could capture the climatic data and also the drought indices well. The study results showed that drought conditions are diverse in the country, and also increasing trends for intensity, frequency and duration were detected. At regional scale, the Eastern part of Marmara, Black Sea Region and northern and eastern parts of the East Anatolia Regions are characterized by wetter conditions. Particularly severe drought conditions are expected in the Western Mediterranean and Aegean Regions, although other regions of the country will also confront with more frequent, intense and long lasting droughts. Both indices SPI and PNI yielded similar results for the reference as well as future period. Most of the rain-fed and irrigated areas as well as the major share of the surface water resources are located in the drought-vulnerable regions of the country. Other water user sectors including urban, industry and touristic places will also be affected from the worsened conditions. Thus, increasing frequency, severity and prolonged duration of drought events may have significant consequences for food production and socio-economic conditions in Turkey.

Expectations and limitations due to brachial plexus injury: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Mancuso, Carol A; Lee, Steve K; Dy, Christopher J; Landers, Zoe A; Model, Zina; Wolfe, Scott W

2015-12-01

This study described physical and psychosocial limitations associated with adult brachial plexus injuries (BPI) and patients' expectations of BPI surgery. During in-person interviews, preoperative patients were asked about expectations of surgery and preoperative and postoperative patients were asked about limitations due to BPI. Postoperative patients also rated improvement in condition after surgery. Data were analyzed with qualitative and quantitative techniques. Ten preoperative and 13 postoperative patients were interviewed; mean age was 37 years, 19 were men, all were employed/students, and most injuries were due to trauma. Preoperative patients cited several main expectations, including pain-related issues, and improvement in arm movement, self-care, family interactions, and global life function. Work-related expectations were tailored to employment type. Preoperative and postoperative patients reported that pain, altered sensation, difficulty managing self-care, becoming physically and financially dependent, and disability in work/school were major issues. All patients reported making major compensations, particularly using the uninjured arm. Most reported multiple mental health effects, were distressed with long recovery times, were self-conscious about appearance, and avoided public situations. Additional stresses were finding and paying for BPI surgery. Some reported BPI impacted overall physical health, life priorities, and decision-making processes. Four postoperative patients reported hardly any improvement, four reported some/a good deal, and five reported a great deal of improvement. BPI is a life-altering event affecting physical function, mental well-being, financial situation, relationships, self-image, and plans for the future. This study contributes to clinical practice by highlighting topics to address to provide comprehensive BPI patient-centered care.

Father Involvement and Young, Rural African American Men's Engagement in Substance Misuse and Multiple Sexual Partnerships.

PubMed

Barton, Allen W; Kogan, Steven M; Cho, Junhan; Brown, Geoffrey L

2015-12-01

This study was designed to examine the associations of biological father and social father involvement during childhood with African American young men's development and engagement in risk behaviors. With a sample of 505 young men living in the rural South of the United States, a dual mediation model was tested in which retrospective reports of involvement from biological fathers and social fathers were linked to young men's substance misuse and multiple sexual partnerships through men's relational schemas and future expectations. Results from structural equation modeling indicated that levels of involvement from biological fathers and social fathers predicted young men's relational schemas; only biological fathers' involvement predicted future expectations. In turn, future expectations predicted levels of substance misuse, and negative relational schemas predicted multiple sexual partnerships. Biological fathers' involvement evinced significant indirect associations with young men's substance misuse and multiple sexual partnerships through both schemas and expectations; social fathers' involvement exhibited an indirect association with multiple sexual partnerships through relational schemas. Findings highlight the unique influences of biological fathers and social fathers on multiple domains of African American young men's psychosocial development that subsequently render young men more or less likely to engage in risk behaviors.

The cost-effectiveness of hospital-based telephone coaching for people with type 2 diabetes: a 10 year modelling analysis.

PubMed

Varney, J E; Liew, D; Weiland, T J; Inder, W J; Jelinek, G A

2016-09-27

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is a burdensome condition for individuals to live with and an increasingly costly condition for health services to treat. Cost-effective treatment strategies are required to delay the onset and slow the progression of diabetes related complications. The Diabetes Telephone Coaching Study (DTCS) demonstrated that telephone coaching is an intervention that may improve the risk factor status and diabetes management practices of people with T2DM. Measuring the cost effectiveness of this intervention is important to inform funding decisions that may facilitate the translation of this research into clinical practice. The purpose of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of telephone coaching, compared to usual diabetes care, in participants with poorly controlled T2DM. A cost utility analysis was undertaken using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model to extrapolate outcomes collected at 6 months in the DTCS over a 10 year time horizon. The intervention's impact on life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and costs was estimated. Costs were reported from a health system perspective. A 5 % discount rate was applied to all future costs and effects. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to reflect uncertainty surrounding key input parameters. The intervention dominated the control condition in the base-case analysis, contributing to cost savings of $3327 per participant, along with non-significant improvements in QALE (0.2 QALE) and life expectancy (0.3 years). The cost of delivering the telephone coaching intervention continuously, for 10 years, was fully recovered through cost savings and a trend towards net health benefits. Findings of cost savings and net health benefits are rare and should prove attractive to decision makers who will determine whether this intervention is implemented into clinical practice. ACTRN12609000075280.

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient

PubMed Central

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species’ physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread. PMID:28948096

Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takakura, Jun'ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Honda, Yasushi; Masui, Toshihiko

2017-06-01

The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change mitigation targets.

A Comparative Study of the Determinants of Future Plans and Expectations of Business Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Black, Gregory S.; Schofield, April L.

2018-01-01

Current university juniors and seniors have plans and expectations for after they graduate. In an effort to better understand these plans and expectations, the authors assessed a sample of 334 university students enrolled in business classes. The study examined the impact of three categories of independent variables--family influences, demographic…

Self-Efficacy and Outcome Expectancy in Beginning Weight Training Class: Their Relations to Students' Behavioral Intention and Actual Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping; Lee, Amelia M.; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

2008-01-01

This study was an initial attempt to investigate the relationships among self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, behavioral intention, and actual behavior over time in a beginning weight training class. A total of 109 participants completed questionnaires assessing their self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, and intentions for future weight training.…

Exposure to food cues moderates the indirect effect of reward sensitivity and external eating via implicit eating expectancies.

PubMed

Maxwell, Aimee L; Loxton, Natalie J; Hennegan, Julie M

2017-04-01

Previous research has suggested that the expectancy "eating is rewarding" is one pathway driving the relationship between trait reward sensitivity and externally-driven eating. The aim of the current study was to extend previous research by examining the conditions under which the indirect effect of reward sensitivity and external eating via this eating expectancy occurs. Using a conditional indirect effects approach we tested the moderating effect of exposure to food cues (e.g., images) relative to non-food cues on the association between reward sensitivity and external eating, via eating expectancies. Participants (N = 119, M = 18.67 years of age, SD = 2.40) were university women who completed a computerised food expectancies task (E-TASK) in which they were randomly assigned to either an appetitive food cue condition or non-food cue condition and then responded to a series of eating expectancy statements or self-description personality statements. Participants also completed self-report trait measures of reward sensitivity in addition to measures of eating expectancies (i.e., endorsement of the belief that eating is a rewarding experience). Results revealed higher reward sensitivity was associated with faster reaction times to the eating expectancies statement. This was moderated by cue-condition such that the association between reward sensitivity and faster reaction time was only found in the food cue condition. Faster endorsement of this belief (i.e., reaction time) was also associated with greater external eating. These results provide additional support for the proposal that individuals high in reward sensitivity form implicit associations with positive beliefs about eating when exposed to food cues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of Pediatric Chronic Disease Treatment Decisions: A Qualitative, Longitudinal View of Parents' Decision-Making Process.

PubMed

Lipstein, Ellen A; Britto, Maria T

2015-08-01

In the context of pediatric chronic conditions, patients and families are called upon repeatedly to make treatment decisions. However, little is known about how their decision making evolves over time. The objective was to understand parents' processes for treatment decision making in pediatric chronic conditions. We conducted a qualitative, prospective longitudinal study using recorded clinic visits and individual interviews. After consent was obtained from health care providers, parents, and patients, clinic visits during which treatment decisions were expected to be discussed were video-recorded. Parents then participated in sequential telephone interviews about their decision-making experience. Data were coded by 2 people and analyzed using framework analysis with sequential, time-ordered matrices. 21 families, including 29 parents, participated in video-recording and interviews. We found 3 dominant patterns of decision evolution. Each consisted of a series of decision events, including conversations, disease flares, and researching of treatment options. Within all 3 patterns there were both constant and evolving elements of decision making, such as role perceptions and treatment expectations, respectively. After parents made a treatment decision, they immediately turned to the next decision related to the chronic condition, creating an iterative cycle. In this study, decision making was an iterative process occurring in 3 distinct patterns. Understanding these patterns and the varying elements of parents' decision processes is an essential step toward developing interventions that are appropriate to the setting and that capitalize on the skills families may develop as they gain experience with a chronic condition. Future research should also consider the role of children and adolescents in this decision process. © The Author(s) 2015.

STEM and our future transportation leaders.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-02-10

Between 2012 to 2022, 40 to 50 percent of the transportation workforce is expected to : retire taking valuable knowledge with them. State Departments of Transportation (DOT) : are expected to play a significant role in replenishing the workforce pipe...

Who Provides Care? A Prospective Study of Caregiving Among Adult Siblings

PubMed Central

Pillemer, Karl; Suitor, J. Jill

2014-01-01

Purpose: We use data from a longitudinal, within-family study to identify factors that predict which adult siblings assumed caregiving responsibilities to older mothers over a 7-year period. Design and Methods: Data for the study were collected from 139 older mothers at 2 points 7 years apart regarding their expectations and experiences of care from 537 adult children. Results: Children whom mothers identified at T1 as their expected future caregivers were much more likely to provide care when a serious illness occurred. Caregiving offspring were also more likely at T1 to have shared their mothers’ values, lived in proximity, and to be daughters. Implications: The findings indicate the degree to which a mother’s expectations for care predict actual caregiving by that child. Practitioners working with older adults should explore parents’ expectations for future care that involves their adult children. PMID:23840019

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of current building practices holding up under future climate change, we recommend using our methods and results to make modifications and adaptations to existing buildings and to aid in the design of future buildings.

Value of information analysis optimizing future trial design from a pilot study on catheter securement devices.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Reynolds, Heather; Gordon, Louisa G; Rickard, Claire M; Scuffham, Paul A

2014-12-01

Value of information analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the standard hypothesis testing approach, which is based on type I and type II errors, in determining sample sizes for randomized clinical trials. However, in addition to sample size calculation, value of information analysis can optimize other aspects of research design such as possible comparator arms and alternative follow-up times, by considering trial designs that maximize the expected net benefit of research, which is the difference between the expected cost of the trial and the expected value of additional information. To apply value of information methods to the results of a pilot study on catheter securement devices to determine the optimal design of a future larger clinical trial. An economic evaluation was performed using data from a multi-arm randomized controlled pilot study comparing the efficacy of four types of catheter securement devices: standard polyurethane, tissue adhesive, bordered polyurethane and sutureless securement device. Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation was used to characterize uncertainty surrounding the study results and to calculate the expected value of additional information. To guide the optimal future trial design, the expected costs and benefits of the alternative trial designs were estimated and compared. Analysis of the value of further information indicated that a randomized controlled trial on catheter securement devices is potentially worthwhile. Among the possible designs for the future trial, a four-arm study with 220 patients/arm would provide the highest expected net benefit corresponding to 130% return-on-investment. The initially considered design of 388 patients/arm, based on hypothesis testing calculations, would provide lower net benefit with return-on-investment of 79%. Cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses were based on the data from a single pilot trial which might affect the accuracy of our uncertainty estimation. Another limitation was that different follow-up durations for the larger trial were not evaluated. The value of information approach allows efficient trial design by maximizing the expected net benefit of additional research. This approach should be considered early in the design of randomized clinical trials. © The Author(s) 2014.

A novel model-based control strategy for aerobic filamentous fungal fed-batch fermentation processes.

PubMed

Mears, Lisa; Stocks, Stuart M; Albaek, Mads O; Cassells, Benny; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V

2017-07-01

A novel model-based control strategy has been developed for filamentous fungal fed-batch fermentation processes. The system of interest is a pilot scale (550 L) filamentous fungus process operating at Novozymes A/S. In such processes, it is desirable to maximize the total product achieved in a batch in a defined process time. In order to achieve this goal, it is important to maximize both the product concentration, and also the total final mass in the fed-batch system. To this end, we describe the development of a control strategy which aims to achieve maximum tank fill, while avoiding oxygen limited conditions. This requires a two stage approach: (i) calculation of the tank start fill; and (ii) on-line control in order to maximize fill subject to oxygen transfer limitations. First, a mechanistic model was applied off-line in order to determine the appropriate start fill for processes with four different sets of process operating conditions for the stirrer speed, headspace pressure, and aeration rate. The start fills were tested with eight pilot scale experiments using a reference process operation. An on-line control strategy was then developed, utilizing the mechanistic model which is recursively updated using on-line measurements. The model was applied in order to predict the current system states, including the biomass concentration, and to simulate the expected future trajectory of the system until a specified end time. In this way, the desired feed rate is updated along the progress of the batch taking into account the oxygen mass transfer conditions and the expected future trajectory of the mass. The final results show that the target fill was achieved to within 5% under the maximum fill when tested using eight pilot scale batches, and over filling was avoided. The results were reproducible, unlike the reference experiments which show over 10% variation in the final tank fill, and this also includes over filling. The variance of the final tank fill is reduced by over 74%, meaning that it is possible to target the final maximum fill reproducibly. The product concentration achieved at a given set of process conditions was unaffected by the control strategy. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 1459-1468. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

2014-09-01

Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20-30%) and interannual variability is projected. These changes are relatively strong compared to changes in snow and meteorological variables. The decrease is amplified in spring and at low altitude. In contrast, an increase in avalanche activity is expected in winter at high altitude because of conditions favourable to wet-snow avalanches earlier in the season. Comparison with the outputs of the deterministic avalanche hazard model MEPRA (Modèle Expert d'aide à la Prévision du Risque d'Avalanche) shows generally consistent results but suggests that, even if the frequency of winters with high avalanche activity is clearly projected to decrease, the decreasing trend may be less strong and smooth than suggested by the statistical analysis based on changes in snowpack characteristics and their links to avalanches observations in the past. This important point for risk assessment pleads for further work focusing on shorter timescales. Finally, the small differences between different climate change scenarios show the robustness of the predicted avalanche activity changes.

Imaging macrophages with nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissleder, Ralph; Nahrendorf, Matthias; Pittet, Mikael J.

2014-02-01

Nanomaterials have much to offer, not only in deciphering innate immune cell biology and tracking cells, but also in advancing personalized clinical care by providing diagnostic and prognostic information, quantifying treatment efficacy and designing better therapeutics. This Review presents different types of nanomaterial, their biological properties and their applications for imaging macrophages in human diseases, including cancer, atherosclerosis, myocardial infarction, aortic aneurysm, diabetes and other conditions. We anticipate that future needs will include the development of nanomaterials that are specific for immune cell subsets and can be used as imaging surrogates for nanotherapeutics. New in vivo imaging clinical tools for noninvasive macrophage quantification are thus ultimately expected to become relevant to predicting patients' clinical outcome, defining treatment options and monitoring responses to therapy.

Assessment of Subsurface Drainage Management Practices to Reduce Nitrogen Loadings Using AnnAGNPS

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of the Future Midwest Landscape project is to quantify current and future landscape services across the region and examine changes expected to occur as a result of two alternative drivers of future change: the growing demand for biofuels; and hypothetical increases in in...

Teacher Education Futures: Today's Trends, Tomorrow's Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aubusson, Peter; Schuck, Sandy

2013-01-01

Education is facing significant political and contextual challenges that will impact its future. This study employs a Delphi methodology to investigate teacher educators' views of current trends and their consequences for teacher education futures. Interviews were conducted with a sample of expert teacher educators drawn from eight countries. This…

Futures Planning--Adult Sibling Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davys, Deborah; Mitchell, Duncan; Haigh, Carol

2015-01-01

A total of 15 adult siblings of people who have a learning disability were interviewed in relation to their future wishes and expectations of care giving. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) was used to analyse transcripts from the interviews where it was demonstrated that futures planning remains an area of difficulty for families of…

Moisture-driven xylogenesis in Pinus ponderosa from a Mojave Desert mountain reveals high phenological plasticity.

PubMed

Ziaco, Emanuele; Truettner, Charles; Biondi, Franco; Bullock, Sarah

2018-04-01

Future seasonal dynamics of wood formation in hyperarid environments are still unclear. Although temperature-driven extension of the growing season and increased forest productivity are expected for boreal and temperate biomes under global warming, a similar trend remains questionable in water-limited regions. We monitored cambial activity in a montane stand of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) from the Mojave Desert for 2 consecutive years (2015-2016) showing opposite-sign anomalies between warm- and cold-season precipitation. After the wet winter/spring of 2016, xylogenesis started 2 months earlier compared to 2015, characterized by abundant monsoonal (July-August) rainfall and hyperarid spring. Tree size did not influence the onset and ending of wood formation, highlighting a predominant climatic control over xylem phenological processes. Moisture conditions in the previous month, in particular soil water content and dew point, were the main drivers of cambial phenology. Latewood formation started roughly at the same time in both years; however, monsoonal precipitation triggered the formation of more false rings and density fluctuations in 2015. Because of uncertainties in future precipitation patterns simulated by global change models for the Southwestern United States, the dependency of P. ponderosa on seasonal moisture implies a greater conservation challenge than for species that respond mostly to temperature conditions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Future of Risk Analysis: Operationalizing Living Vulnerability Assessments from the Cloud to the Street (and Back)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.

2016-12-01

21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua

2016-11-18

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states.

Experimental Study of the Angle of Repose of Surrogate Martian Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moeller, L. E.; Tuller, M.; Baker, L.; Marshall, J.; Castiglione, P.; Kuhlman, K.

2003-01-01

Accumulation of wind-blown dust particles on solar cells and instruments will be a great challenge in the exploration of Mars, significantly reducing their lifetime, durability, and power output. For future Mars Lander missions it is crucial to gain information about the ideal angle at which solar panels can be positioned to minimize dust deposition and thus, maximize the power output and lifetime of the solar cells. The major determinant for the optimal panel angle is the angle of repose of the dust particles that is dependent on a variety of physical and chemical properties of the particles, the panel surface, and the environmental conditions on the Mars surface. To gain a basic understanding of the physical and chemical processes that govern dust deposition and to get feedback for the design of an experiment suitable for one of the future Mars Lander missions we simulate atmospheric conditions expected on the Mars surface in a controlled chamber, and observe the angle of repose of Mars dust surrogates. Dust deposition and angle of repose were observed on different sized spheres. To cover a range of potential materials we will use spheres made of 7075 aluminum (10 mm, and 15 mm), alumina oxide ceramic (10 mm), and Teflon(trademark) (10 mm) and wafers of gallium arsenide, silicon.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua

2016-01-01

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states. PMID:27857204