On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life.

PubMed

Mayhew, Les; Smith, David

2015-01-01

Life expectancy is a measure of how long people are expected to live and is widely used as a measure of human development. Variations in the measure reflect not only the process of ageing but also the impacts of such events as epidemics, wars, and economic recessions. Since 1950, the influence of these events in the most developed countries has waned and life expectancy continues to lengthen unabated. As a result, it has become more difficult to forecast long-run trends accurately, or identify possible upper limits. We present new methods for comparing past improvements in life expectancy and also future prospects, using data from five developed, low-mortality countries. We consider life expectancy in 10-year age intervals rather than over the remaining lifetime, and show how natural limits to life expectancy can be used to extrapolate trends. We discuss the implications and compare our approach with other commonly used methods.

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Tilele; Madani, Kaveh

2016-11-01

Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi’s dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi’s soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi’s agriculture sector.

Futurescapes: evidence expectations in the USA for comparative effectiveness research for drugs in 2020.

PubMed

Messner, Donna A; Mohr, Penny; Towse, Adrian

2015-08-01

Explore key factors influencing future expectations for the production of evidence from comparative effectiveness research for drugs in the USA in 2020 and construct three plausible future scenarios. Semistructured key informant interviews and three rounds of modified Delphi with systematic scenario-building methods. Most influential key factors were: health delivery system integration; electronic health record development; exploitation of very large databases and mixed data sources; and proactive patient engagement in research. The scenario deemed most likely entailed uneven development of large integrated health systems with pockets of increased provider risk for patient care, enhanced data collection systems, changing incentives to do comparative effectiveness research and new opportunities for evidence generation partnerships.

Discrimination concerns and expectations as explanations for gendered socialization in African American families.

PubMed

Varner, Fatima; Mandara, Jelani

2013-01-01

Discrimination concerns and parental expectations were examined as mediators of the relations between gender and parenting practices among 796 African American mothers of 11- to 14-year-olds from the Maryland Adolescent Development in Context Study. Mothers of sons had more concerns about racial discrimination impacting their adolescents' future, whereas mothers of daughters had more gender discrimination concerns. Racial discrimination concerns, but not gender discrimination concerns, were related to lower maternal academic and behavioral expectations. Maternal expectations were related to mothers' responsiveness, rule enforcement, monitoring, and parent-adolescent conflict. The relations between gender and parenting practices were partially explained through mothers' racial discrimination concerns and expectations. These findings demonstrate the importance of contextual factors on African American family processes. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries.

PubMed

2017-05-20

The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9·21 trillion in 2014 to $24·24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20·47-29·72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5·3% (UI 4·1-6·8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4·2% (3·8-4·9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2·1% (UI 1·8-2·4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1·8% (1·0-2·8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and $195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Hope Matters: Developing and Validating a Measure of Future Expectations Among Young Women in a High HIV Prevalence Setting in Rural South Africa (HPTN 068).

PubMed

Abler, Laurie; Hill, Lauren; Maman, Suzanne; DeVellis, Robert; Twine, Rhian; Kahn, Kathleen; MacPhail, Catherine; Pettifor, Audrey

2017-07-01

Hope is a future expectancy characterized by an individual's perception that a desirable future outcome can be achieved. Though scales exist to measure hope, they may have limited relevance in low resource, high HIV prevalence settings. We developed and validated a hope scale among young women living in rural South Africa. We conducted formative interviews to identify the key elements of hope. Using items developed from these interviews, we administered the hope scale to 2533 young women enrolled in an HIV-prevention trial. Women endorsed scale items highly and the scale proved to be unidimensional in the sample. Hope scores were significantly correlated with hypothesized psycholosocial correlates with the exception of life stressors. Overall, our hope measure was found to have excellent reliability and to show encouraging preliminary indications of validity in this population. This study presents a promising measure to assess hope among young women in South Africa.

Hope Matters: Developing and Validating a Measure of Future Expectations Among Young Women in a High HIV Prevalence Setting in Rural South Africa (HPTN 068)

PubMed Central

Abler, Laurie; Maman, Suzanne; DeVellis, Robert; Twine, Rhian; Kahn, Kathleen; MacPhail, Catherine; Pettifor, Audrey

2017-01-01

Hope is a future expectancy characterized by an individual’s perception that a desirable future outcome can be achieved. Though scales exist to measure hope, they may have limited relevance in low resource, high HIV prevalence settings. We developed and validated a hope scale among young women living in rural South Africa. We conducted formative interviews to identify the key elements of hope. Using items developed from these interviews, we administered the hope scale to 2533 young women enrolled in an HIV-prevention trial. Women endorsed scale items highly and the scale proved to be unidimensional in the sample. Hope scores were significantly correlated with hypothesized psycholosocial correlates with the exception of life stressors. Overall, our hope measure was found to have excellent reliability and to show encouraging preliminary indications of validity in this population. This study presents a promising measure to assess hope among young women in South Africa. PMID:27544516

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

The Role of Dialogic Processes in Designing Career Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bangali, Marcelline; Guichard, Jean

2012-01-01

This article examines the role played by dialogic processes in the designing or redesigning of future expectations during a career guidance intervention. It discusses a specific method ("Giving instruction to a double") developed and used during career counseling sessions with two recent doctoral graduates. It intends both to help them outline or…

Parental Psychopathology and Expectations for the Futures of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Paul Andrew; King, Jake S.; Mendelson, Jenna L.; Nelson-Gray, Rosemery O.

2018-01-01

Background: The influence of parental psychopathology and parental expectations on child well-being is well documented among typically developing populations. However, to date little research has examined the relationship among these factors in families of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This study examines an observed relationship…

Discrimination Concerns and Expectations as Explanations for Gendered Socialization in African American Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varner, Fatima; Mandara, Jelani

2013-01-01

Discrimination concerns and parental expectations were examined as mediators of the relations between gender and parenting practices among 796 African American mothers of 11- to 14-year-olds from the Maryland Adolescent Development in Context Study. Mothers of sons had more concerns about racial discrimination impacting their adolescents' future,…

A Qualitative Exploration of the STEM Career-Related Outcome Expectations of Young Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shoffner, Marie F.; Newsome, Debbie; Barrio Minton, Casey A.; Wachter Morris, Carrie A.

2015-01-01

Perceptions developed and choices made during the preadolescent and early adolescent years may restrict or enrich youth's future career aspirations. These years are critical for acquiring and exploring academic and career-related interests. In addition, outcome expectations -- what youth believe will happen if they pursue certain interests, tasks,…

International Fertility Change: New Data and Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework

PubMed Central

Thornton, Arland; Binstock, Georgina; Yount, Kathryn M.; Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal; Ghimire, Dirgha; Xie, Yu

2012-01-01

Many scholars have offered structural and ideational explanations for the fertility changes occurring around the world. This paper focuses on the influence of developmental idealism—a schema or set of beliefs endorsing development, fertility change, and causal connections between development and fertility. Developmental idealism is argued to be an important force affecting both population policy and the fertility behavior of ordinary people. We present new survey data from ordinary people in six countries—Argentina, China, Egypt, Iran, Nepal, and the United States—about the extent to which developmental idealism is known and believed. We ask individuals if they believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development is a causal force in changing fertility levels, and that fertility declines enhance the standard of living and intergenerational relations. We also ask people about their expectations concerning future trends in fertility in their countries and whether they approve or disapprove of the trends they expect. The data show widespread linkage in the minds of ordinary people between fertility and development. Large fractions of people in these six settings believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development reduces fertility, and that fertility declines foster development. Many also expect and endorse future declines in fertility. PMID:22403035

Design 2000: Theory-Based Design Models of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richey, Rita C.

The influence of theory on instructional-design models of the future is explored on the basis of the theoretical developments of today. Anticipated model changes are expected to result from disparate theoretical thinking in areas such as chaos theory, constructivism, situated learning, cognitive-learning theory, and general systems theory.…

The Career Futures Inventory-Revised: Measuring Dimensions of Career Adaptability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rottinghaus, Patrick J.; Buelow, Kristine L.; Matyja, Anna; Schneider, Madalyn R.

2012-01-01

This study reports the development and initial validation of the "Career Futures Inventory-Revised" (CFI-R) in two large samples of university students. The 28-item CFI-R assesses aspects of career adaptability, including positive career planning attitudes, general outcome expectations, and components of Parsons' tripartite model and…

The Surprisingly Low Motivational Power of Future Rewards: Comparing Conventional Money-Based Measures of Discounting with Motivation-Based Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ebert, Jane E. J.

2010-01-01

Temporal discount rates are often poor predictors of behaviors that we expect will be motivated by the future. The current research suggests this may be because conventional discounting measures are poor measures of the motivational value of future rewards. In six studies, I develop motivation-based measures of the present value (PV) of future…

Future directions in technology development - Increased use of space as a facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambrus, Judith H.; Harris, Leonard A.; Levine, Jack; Tyson, Richard W.

1988-01-01

As human activities in space continue to grow in size and scope, the role of in-space technology experiments, as a necessary tool for essential technological development, will also grow. NASA has recognized the increasing importance of such experiments, and has instituted programs to plan, organize, and coordinate future in-space technology experiment activities within the overall space community. This paper discusses the history of in-space technology experiments, and expected future trends. It also describes NASA activities in this growing area of experimentation, and provides several examples of such experiments.

Computer Task Application Use by Professional Health Educators: Implications for Professional Preparation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanks, Walter A.; Barnes, Michael D.; Merrill, Ray M.; Neiger, Brad L.

2000-01-01

Investigated how health educators currently used computers and how they expected to use them in the future. Surveys of practicing health educators at many types of sites indicated that important current abilities included Internet, word processing, and electronic presentation skills. Important future tasks and skills included developing computer…

Possible Selves: Students Orientating Themselves towards the Future through Extracurricular Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevenson, Jacqueline; Clegg, Sue

2011-01-01

This paper explores the under-researched area of extracurricular activity undertaken by students through the lens of the possible selves literature, which has largely been developed in the North American context. In the UK the employability agenda assumes an orientation towards the future and employers are increasingly expecting students to…

Geothermal development plan: Cochise/Santa Cruz Counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D. H.; Goldstone, L. A.

1982-08-01

The regional market potential for utilizing geothermal energy was evaluated. Three potential geothermal resource areas with potential for resource temperatures less than 900C (1940F) were identified. Population growth rates are expected to average 3% per year over the next 30 years in Willcox; Bowie and San Simon are expected to grow much slower. Regional employment is based on agriculture and copper mining, though future growth in trade, services and international trade is expected. A regional energy use analysis is included. Urban use, copper mining and agriculture are the principal water users in the region and substantial reductions in water use are anticipated in the future. The development plan identifies potential geothermal energy users in the region. Geothermal energy utilization projections suggest that by the year 2000, geothermal energy might economically provide the energy equivalent of 3,250,000 barrels of oil per year to the industrial sector. In addition, geothermal energy utilization might help stimulate an agricultural and livestock processing industry.

Adolescents Occupational and Educational Goals: A Test of Reciprocal Relations

PubMed Central

Beal, Sarah J.; Crockett, Lisa J.

2013-01-01

During adolescence, young people’s future aspirations and expectations begin to crystallize, especially in the domains of education and occupation. Much of the research in this area has emphasized development within a particular domain (e.g., education) and relations between aspirations and expectations across domains remain largely unexplored, resulting in a lack of information on how goals develop in tandem and affect each other. It is also unclear whether these developmental processes differ by gender and socioeconomic status. We tested reciprocal effects between occupational and educational goals using a longitudinal sample of 636 adolescents (52% boys). Results from dynamic systems models indicated change in occupational and educational goals across high school. For all youth, occupational aspirations predicted change in occupational expectations. Educational expectations predicted change in occupational aspirations for youth in high but not low parent education groups, and occupational expectations predicted change in educational expectations for girls but not boys. PMID:23997383

The OPTICON technology roadmap for optical and infrared astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunningham, Colin; Melotte, David; Molster, Frank

2010-07-01

The Key Technology Network (KTN) within the OPTICON programme has been developing a roadmap for the technology needed to meet the challenges of optical and infrared astronomy over the next few years, with particular emphasis on the requirements of Extremely Large Telescopes. The process and methodology so far will be described, along with the most recent roadmap. The roadmap shows the expected progression of ground-based astronomy facilities and the technological developments which will be required to realise these new facilities. The roadmap highlights the key stages in the development of these technologies. In some areas, such as conventional optics, gradual developments in areas such as light-weighting of optics will slowly be adopted into future instruments. In other areas, such as large area IR detectors, more rapid progress can be expected as new processing techniques allow larger and faster arrays. Finally, other areas such as integrated photonics have the potential to revolutionise astronomical instrumentation. Future plans are outlined, in particular our intention to look at longer term development and disruptive technologies.

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

Use of clinical simulations for patient education: targeting an untapped audience.

PubMed

Siwe, Karin; Berterö, Carina; Pugh, Carla; Wijma, Barbro

2009-01-01

In most cases, the health professional has been the target for simulation based learning curricula. We have developed a simulation based curriculum for patient education. In our curriculum lay-women learn how to perform the clinical female pelvic examination using a manikin-based trainer. Learner assessments show that prior negative expectations turned into positive expectations regarding future pelvic examinations.

Life expectancy living with HIV: recent estimates and future implications.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Fumiyo; May, Margaret; Phillips, Andrew

2013-02-01

The life expectancy of people living with HIV has dramatically increased since effective antiretroviral therapy has been available, and still continues to improve. Here, we review the latest literature on estimates of life expectancy and consider the implications for future research. With timely diagnosis, access to a variety of current drugs and good lifelong adherence, people with recently acquired infections can expect to have a life expectancy which is nearly the same as that of HIV-negative individuals. Modelling studies suggest that life expectancy could improve further if there were increased uptake of HIV testing, better antiretroviral regimens and treatment strategies, and the adoption of healthier lifestyles by those living with HIV. In particular, earlier diagnosis is one of the most important factors associated with better life expectancy. A consequence of improved survival is the increasing number of people with HIV who are aged over 50 years old, and further research into the impact of ageing on HIV-positive people will therefore become crucial. The development of age-specific HIV treatment and management guidelines is now called for. Analyses on cohort studies and mathematical modelling studies have been used to estimate life expectancy of those with HIV, providing useful insights of importance to individuals and healthcare planning.

NASA's mobile satellite communications program; ground and space segment technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naderi, F.; Weber, W. J.; Knouse, G. H.

1984-01-01

This paper describes the Mobile Satellite Communications Program of the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The program's objectives are to facilitate the deployment of the first generation commercial mobile satellite by the private sector, and to technologically enable future generations by developing advanced and high risk ground and space segment technologies. These technologies are aimed at mitigating severe shortages of spectrum, orbital slot, and spacecraft EIRP which are expected to plague the high capacity mobile satellite systems of the future. After a brief introduction of the concept of mobile satellite systems and their expected evolution, this paper outlines the critical ground and space segment technologies. Next, the Mobile Satellite Experiment (MSAT-X) is described. MSAT-X is the framework through which NASA will develop advanced ground segment technologies. An approach is outlined for the development of conformal vehicle antennas, spectrum and power-efficient speech codecs, and modulation techniques for use in the non-linear faded channels and efficient multiple access schemes. Finally, the paper concludes with a description of the current and planned NASA activities aimed at developing complex large multibeam spacecraft antennas needed for future generation mobile satellite systems.

Content Area Literacy: Relationship between Lesson Design and Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owens-Kristenson, Jodi

2013-01-01

Despite Minnesota's investment in professional development in content area literacy, secondary students are not showing expected literacy gains. A lack of literacy proficiency limits future options for students. The purpose of this study was to examine content-area literacy strategy inclusion and its relationship to professional development in the…

Multiple System Atrophy

MedlinePlus

... which can be expected to aid in the design of future trials. Additionally, MSA is one of ... Outcomes Data Training & Career Development High School, Undergraduate, & Post-Baccalaureate Predoctoral Fellows Postdoctoral Fellows Clinician-Scientists Faculty ...

Future Directions for Urban Forestry Research in the United States

Treesearch

John F. Dwyer; David J. Nowak; Gary W. Watson

2002-01-01

Urban forestry research promises to continue to be an integral part of the growth and development of forestry in urban and urbanizing areas of the United States. The future is expected to bring increased emphasis on research in support of the care of trees and other plants, ecological restoration, and comprehensive and adaptive management across the landscape....

What's Next After You Say Hello: First Steps in Mentoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hogue, William F.; Pringle, Ernest M.

2005-01-01

In most cultures wisdom, knowledge, and experience are prized assets. Those who possess them are held in high regard and are expected to share them with the next generation. So it is in the world of information technology (IT). Veteran IT professionals are often charged with identifying and developing future IT leaders, while future leaders often…

Toward a theory of persuasive hope: effects of cognitive appraisals, hope appeals, and hope in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Chadwick, Amy E

2015-01-01

Hope has the potential to be a powerful motivator for influencing behavior. However, hope and messages that evoke hope (hope appeals) have rarely been the focus of theoretical development or empirical research. As a step toward the effective development and use of hope appeals in persuasive communication, this study conceptualized and operationalized hope appeals in the context of climate change prevention. Then, the study manipulated components of the hope evocation part of a hope appeal. Specifically, the components were designed to address appraisals of the importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility of climate protection, resulting in a 2 (strong/weak importance) × 2 (strong/weak goal congruence) × 2 (strong/weak future expectation) × 2 (strong/weak possibility) between-subjects pretest-posttest factorial design. Two hundred forty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to one of the 16 message conditions and completed the study online. The study tested whether the four appraisals predict feelings of hope. It determined whether message components that address importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility affect appraisals, feelings of hope, and persuasion outcomes. Finally, this study tested the effects of feelings of hope on persuasion outcomes. This study takes an important step toward enabling the effective use of hope appeals in persuasive communication.

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

The Implementation of Advanced Solar Array Technology in Future NASA Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piszczor, Michael F.; Kerslake, Thomas W.; Hoffman, David J.; White, Steve; Douglas, Mark; Spence, Brian; Jones, P. Alan

2003-01-01

Advanced solar array technology is expected to be critical in achieving the mission goals on many future NASA space flight programs. Current PV cell development programs offer significant potential and performance improvements. However, in order to achieve the performance improvements promised by these devices, new solar array structures must be designed and developed to accommodate these new PV cell technologies. This paper will address the use of advanced solar array technology in future NASA space missions and specifically look at how newer solar cell technologies impact solar array designs and overall power system performance.

Ego development, psychopathology, and parenting problems in substance-abusing mothers.

PubMed

Suchman, Nancy; McMahon, Thomas; Decoste, Cindy; Castiglioni, Nicole; Luthar, Suniya

2008-01-01

The authors examined maternal ego development in relation to psychopathology and parenting problems in a sample of substance abusing mothers. Given predilections at higher levels of ego development for introspection and guilt, the authors expected mothers at higher levels to report more psychopathology. Given predilections at lower levels of ego development for dichotomous perceptions and limited conceptions of causation, the authors expected mothers at low levels to report more problematic parenting behaviors. Intelligence was expected to correlate but not overlap with ego development. Subjects were 182 mothers who expressed interest in a randomized clinical trial for a new parenting intervention. Measures included the Washington University Sentence Completion Task--Short Form, the Parental Acceptance-Rejection Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Inventory and the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test. Results of correlation and multivariate analyses of variance confirmed predictions. Implications for future development of interventions for substance abusing mothers are discussed. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Ego Development, Psychopathology, and Parenting Problems in Substance-Abusing Mothers

PubMed Central

Suchman, Nancy; McMahon, Thomas; DeCoste, Cindy; Castiglioni, Nicole; Luthar, Suniya

2009-01-01

The authors examined maternal ego development in relation to psychopathology and parenting problems in a sample of substance abusing mothers. Given predilections at higher levels of ego development for introspection and guilt, the authors expected mothers at higher levels to report more psychopathology. Given predilections at lower levels of ego development for dichotomous perceptions and limited conceptions of causation, the authors expected mothers at low levels to report more problematic parenting behaviors. Intelligence was expected to correlate but not overlap with ego development. Subjects were 182 mothers who expressed interest in a randomized clinical trial for a new parenting intervention. Measures included the Washington University Sentence Completion Task—Short Form, the Parental Acceptance-Rejection Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Inventory and the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test. Results of correlation and multivariate analyses of variance confirmed predictions. Implications for future development of interventions for substance abusing mothers are discussed. PMID:18444723

The Role of Parenting Styles and Alcohol Expectancies in Teen Binge Drinking: A Preliminary Investigation among Italian Adolescents and Their Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laghi, Fiorenzo; Lonigro, Antonia; Baiocco, Roberto; Baumgartner, Emma

2013-01-01

As adolescents' alcohol abuse is more widespread almost everywhere, the aim of this study was to better understand the influence of both alcohol expectancies and parenting styles on this risky behaviour in order to allow the development of future prevention programmes, by evaluating the correlation between these variables. A total of 1500 subjects…

[Expectations, requirements and limitations of future task sharing between the nursing profession and the medical profession: results from the Care-N Study M-V].

PubMed

Dreier, Adina; Rogalski, Hagen; Homeyer, Sabine; Oppermann, Roman Frank; Hingst, Peter; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2015-10-01

The aging population causes a sustained increase in demand of medical and nursing care services. At the same time health care professionals are aging, too. This leads to a growing number of health care gaps. Therefore, the health care system needs to be reformed. This includes a reallocation of task between some of the health care professions. This article addresses developments, potentials and limitations in the context of the future allocation of tasks between the nursing and the medical profession. Aim is to specify the future task sharing between nurses and physicians regarding expectations, requirements and limitations. We conducted questionnaire based Delphi interviews with an interdisciplinary group of experts. (type aggregation of ideas). In the future, to expert’s point of view, nurses will take over routine tasks in the medical and nursing health care supply. Task sharing by substitution is regarded with skepticism by experts. It requires a long time perspective and an early involvement of all stakeholders. Germany is at the beginning of the process of the future task sharing between nurses and physicians. The realization requires a comprehensive political support and further development of concepts including scientific implementation and evaluation.

78 FR 22540 - Notice of Public Meeting/Webinar: EPA Method Development Update on Drinking Water Testing Methods...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-16

...: EPA Method Development Update on Drinking Water Testing Methods for Contaminant Candidate List... Division will describe methods currently in development for many CCL contaminants, with an expectation that several of these methods will support future cycles of the Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR...

Technological developments and future perspectives on graphene-based metamaterials: a primer for neurosurgeons.

PubMed

Mattei, Tobias A; Rehman, Azeem A

2014-05-01

Graphene, a monolayer atomic-scale honeycomb lattice of carbon atoms, has been considered the greatest revolution in metamaterials research in the past 5 years. Its developers were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2010, and massive funding has been directed to graphene-based experimental research in the last years. For instance, an international scientific collaboration has recently received a €1 billion grant from the European Flagship Initiative, the largest amount of financial resources ever granted for a single research project in the history of modern science. Because of graphene's unique optical, thermal, mechanical, electronic, and quantum properties, the incorporation of graphene-based metamaterials to biomedical applications is expected to lead to major technological breakthroughs in the next few decades. Current frontline research in graphene technology includes the development of high-performance, lightweight, and malleable electronic devices, new optical modulators, ultracapacitors, molecular biodevices, organic photovoltaic cells, lithium-ion microbatteries, frequency multipliers, quantum dots, and integrated circuits, just to mention a few. With such advances, graphene technology is expected to significantly impact several areas of neurosurgery, including neuro-oncology, neurointensive care, neuroregeneration research, peripheral nerve surgery, functional neurosurgery, and spine surgery. In this topic review, the authors provide a basic introduction to the main electrophysical properties of graphene. Additionally, future perspectives of ongoing frontline investigations on this new metamaterial are discussed, with special emphasis on those research fields that are expected to most substantially impact experimental and clinical neurosurgery in the near future.

Mentoring A­-Z

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Todaro, Julie

2015-01-01

Your library's future is as good as the talent you develop. Too many mentorship programs are cursory; without structure and expectations, they accomplish little beyond a procedural orientation. But a solid, sustainable mentorship program can be a game changer for libraries, with long-­term results that include career development,…

The anticipated transition to adulthood: effects of culture and individual experience on Polish and Finnish adolescents' future orientations.

PubMed

Trempala, J; Malmberg, L E

1998-05-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the effect of a set of individual resources and cultural factors on adolescents' probability estimations of the occurrence of positive future events in three life domains: education, occupation, and family. The hypothesis was that the effects of culture and individual resources are interwoven in the formation process of future orientation. The sample consisted of 352 17-year-old Polish and Finnish girls and boys from vocational and upper secondary schools. The 78-item questionnaire developed by the authors was used to measure different aspects of future orientation (probability, valence, and extension of future events in three life domains) and individual resources (self-esteem, control beliefs, and social knowledge about normatively and the generation gap). Data analysis showed that culture separately affected individual resources and adolescents' expectations. However, the results broadly confirmed the thesis that the culture has a limited effect on adolescents' expectations of the occurrence of future events. Moreover, these data suggested that the influence of sociocultural differences on adolescents' probability estimations is indirect. In the context of the presented data, the authors discuss their model of future orientation.

Assessing future expectations and the two-dimensional model of affect in an Italian population.

PubMed

Corno, Giulia; Molinari, Guadalupe; Baños, Rosa Maria

2017-03-01

Future-directed thinking has been described as part of two underlying systems that integrate dimensions of affect, motivational systems, orientation to the future, and future expectations, which are initiated at the cognitive, affective, biological, behavioral, and motivational levels. The main aim of the present study is to test the two underlying frameworks model and explore future expectations in a general Italian-speaking population (N=345). Therefore, the second aim of the present paper is to confirm the factorial structure of the Subjective Probability Task (SPT; MacLeod et al., 1996), a questionnaire designed to assess specific positive and negative orientations towards the future. Results showed that the SPT has good psychometric properties and it is a reliable instrument to assess future-directed thinking. Moreover, our findings confirmed the role of future expectancies as cognitive correlates of depression and anxiety. Differently from previous studies (Clark and Watson, 1991; MacLeod et al., 1996), our results did not confirm that depression was characterized by low positive affect. We believe this paper contributes to the understanding of future expectancies and their relation with anxiety and depression, and will help to expand the availability of an instrument to assess future directed thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Future of the Oceans Past: Towards a Global Marine Historical Research Initiative

PubMed Central

Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Holm, Poul; Blight, Louise; Coll, Marta; MacDiarmid, Alison; Ojaveer, Henn; Poulsen, Bo; Tull, Malcolm

2014-01-01

Historical research is playing an increasingly important role in marine sciences. Historical data are also used in policy making and marine resource management, and have helped to address the issue of shifting baselines for numerous species and ecosystems. Although many important research questions still remain unanswered, tremendous developments in conceptual and methodological approaches are expected to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the global history of human interactions with life in the seas. Based on our experiences and knowledge from the “History of Marine Animal Populations” project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine environmental historians and historical ecologists. PMID:24988080

The future of the oceans past: towards a global marine historical research initiative.

PubMed

Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Holm, Poul; Blight, Louise; Coll, Marta; MacDiarmid, Alison; Ojaveer, Henn; Poulsen, Bo; Tull, Malcolm

2014-01-01

Historical research is playing an increasingly important role in marine sciences. Historical data are also used in policy making and marine resource management, and have helped to address the issue of shifting baselines for numerous species and ecosystems. Although many important research questions still remain unanswered, tremendous developments in conceptual and methodological approaches are expected to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the global history of human interactions with life in the seas. Based on our experiences and knowledge from the "History of Marine Animal Populations" project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine environmental historians and historical ecologists.

Expectations, Fears, and Strategies: Juvenile Offender Thoughts on a Future outside of Incarceration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clinkinbeard, Samantha S.; Zohra, Tusty

2012-01-01

The current article explores the possible selves, or future expectations, of 543 incarcerated juvenile offenders in four Western states in the United States. We argue that juveniles who are able to articulate future expectations and fears and generate concrete strategies for achieving their goals have higher levels of motivational capital (i.e.,…

UROLOGIC ROBOTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

PubMed Central

Mozer, Pierre; Troccaz, Jocelyne; Stoianovici, Dan

2009-01-01

Purpose of review Robot-assisted laparoscopic surgery in urology has gained immense popularity with the Da Vinci system but a lot of research teams are working on new robots. The purpose of this paper is to review current urologic robots and present future developments directions. Recent findings Future systems are expected to advance in two directions: improvements of remote manipulation robots and developments of image-guided robots. Summary The final goal of robots is to allow safer and more homogeneous outcomes with less variability of surgeon performance, as well as new tools to perform tasks based on medical transcutaneous imaging, in a less invasive way, at lower costs. It is expected that improvements for remote system could be augmented reality, haptic feed back, size reduction and development of new tools for NOTES surgery. The paradigm of image-guided robots is close to a clinical availability and the most advanced robots are presented with end-user technical assessments. It is also notable that the potential of robots lies much further ahead than the accomplishments of the daVinci system. The integration of imaging with robotics holds a substantial promise, because this can accomplish tasks otherwise impossible. Image guided robots have the potential to offer a paradigm shift. PMID:19057227

Urologic robots and future directions.

PubMed

Mozer, Pierre; Troccaz, Jocelyne; Stoianovici, Dan

2009-01-01

Robot-assisted laparoscopic surgery in urology has gained immense popularity with the daVinci system, but a lot of research teams are working on new robots. The purpose of this study is to review current urologic robots and present future development directions. Future systems are expected to advance in two directions: improvements of remote manipulation robots and developments of image-guided robots. The final goal of robots is to allow safer and more homogeneous outcomes with less variability of surgeon performance, as well as new tools to perform tasks on the basis of medical transcutaneous imaging, in a less invasive way, at lower costs. It is expected that improvements for a remote system could be augmented in reality, with haptic feedback, size reduction, and development of new tools for natural orifice translumenal endoscopic surgery. The paradigm of image-guided robots is close to clinical availability and the most advanced robots are presented with end-user technical assessments. It is also notable that the potential of robots lies much further ahead than the accomplishments of the daVinci system. The integration of imaging with robotics holds a substantial promise, because this can accomplish tasks otherwise impossible. Image-guided robots have the potential to offer a paradigm shift.

Impact of Canadian economic development on northern Montana highways phase II, ports of Wild Horse and Morgan highway corridors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether highway infrastructure in Montana is adequate to support future expected growth in traffic : resulting from economic development in Canada, and a number of potential changes in border operations, indu...

Design and development of a solar array drive. [a direct drive solar array pointing mechanism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rees, T.; Standing, J. M.

1977-01-01

The design and development of a dry lubricated direct drive solar array pointing mechanism is discussed for use on the Orbital Test Satellite (OTS), MAROTS, European Communication Satellite (ECS), and others. Results of life testing the original prototype and the OTS mechanism are presented together with an appraisal of expected future development.

Something Old, Something New: The Wedding of Rural Education and Rural Development. SGPB Alert: Analysis of Emerging Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenfeld, Stuart

It is becoming increasingly apparent that rural communities will have to alter their economic patterns as the United States economy shifts and rural areas cannot compete successfully with cities for emerging industries and future jobs. Instead of catering to the large firms and high-tech companies that are expected to predominate in the future,…

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

PubMed Central

Baccini, Michela; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-01-01

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. PMID:28678192

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

PubMed

Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-07-05

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

Psychodynamic theory and counseling in predictive testing for Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Tassicker, Roslyn J

2005-04-01

This paper revisits psychodynamic theory, which can be applied in predictive testing counseling for Huntington's Disease (HD). Psychodynamic theory has developed from the work of Freud and places importance on early parent-child experiences. The nature of these relationships, or attachments are reflected in adult expectations and relationships. Two significant concepts, identification and fear of abandonment, have been developed and expounded by the psychodynamic theorist, Melanie Klein. The processes of identification and fear of abandonment can become evident in predictive testing counseling and are colored by the client's experience of growing up with a parent affected by Huntington's Disease. In reflecting on family-of-origin experiences, clients can also express implied expectations of the future, and future relationships. Case examples are given to illustrate the dynamic processes of identification and fear of abandonment which may present in the clinical setting. Counselor recognition of these processes can illuminate and inform counseling practice.

Marshall Space Flight Center CFD overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schutzenhofer, Luke A.

1989-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) activities at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have been focused on hardware specific and research applications with strong emphasis upon benchmark validation. The purpose here is to provide insight into the MSFC CFD related goals, objectives, current hardware related CFD activities, propulsion CFD research efforts and validation program, future near-term CFD hardware related programs, and CFD expectations. The current hardware programs where CFD has been successfully applied are the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), Alternate Turbopump Development (ATD), and Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE). For the future near-term CFD hardware related activities, plans are being developed that address the implementation of CFD into the early design stages of the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME), Space Transportation Booster Engine (STBE), and the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for the Space Station. Finally, CFD expectations in the design environment will be delineated.

Land cover changes associated with recent energy development in the Williston Basin; Northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preston, Todd M.; Kim, Kevin

2016-01-01

The Williston Basin in the Northern Great Plains has experienced rapid energy development since 2000. To evaluate the land cover changes resulting from recent (2000 – 2015) development, the area and previous land cover of all well pads (pads) constructed during this time was determined, the amount of disturbed and reclaimed land adjacent to pads was estimated, land cover changes were analyzed over time for three different well types, and the effects from future development were predicted. The previous land cover of the 12,990 ha converted to pads was predominately agricultural (49.5%) or prairie (47.4%) with lesser amounts of developed (2.3%), aquatic (0.5%), and forest (0.4%). Additionally, 12,121 ha have likely been disturbed and reclaimed. The area required per gas well remained constant through time while the land required per oil well increased initially and then decreased as development first shifted from conventional to unconventional drilling and then to multi-bore pads. For non-oil-and- gas wells (i.e. stratigraphic test wells, water wells, injection wells, etc.), the area per well increased through time likely due to increased produced water disposal requirements. Future land cover change is expected to be 2.7 times greater than recent development with much of the development occurring in five counties in the core Bakken development area. Direct land cover change and disturbance from recent and expected development are predicted to affect 0.4% of the landscape across the basin; however, in the core Bakken development area, 2.3% of the landscape will be affected including 2.1% of the remaining grassland. Although future development will result in significant land cover change, evolving industry practices and proactive siting decisions, such as development along energy corridors and placing pads in areas previously altered by human activity, have the potential to reduce the ecological effects of future energy development in the Williston Basin.

Growth and performance of loblolly pine genetic planting stock through eight years

Treesearch

Randall J. Rousseau; Scott D. Roberts; Billy L. Herrin

2016-01-01

Currently, the need in the pine market is to develop higher sawtimber quality trees. The pine biomass and pulpwood market supports the low end of the product chain. However, we must improve on the quality of the southern pine for construction lumber if the southern region is expected to capture the shortfall of the sawtimber market expected in the future. Various pine...

Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy

PubMed Central

Raftery, Adrian E.; Lalic, Nevena; Gerland, Patrick

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND The United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers for policy planning, for monitoring development goals, as inputs to economic and environmental models, and for social and health research. The UN is considering producing fully probabilistic population projections, for which joint probabilistic projections of future female and male life expectancy at birth are needed. OBJECTIVE We propose a methodology for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of female and male life expectancy at birth. METHODS We first project female life expectancy using a one-sex method for probabilistic projection of life expectancy. We then project the gap between female and male life expectancy. We propose an autoregressive model for the gap in a future time period for a particular country, which is a function of female life expectancy and a t-distributed random perturbation. This method takes into account mortality data limitations, is comparable across countries, and accounts for shocks. We estimate all parameters based on life expectancy estimates for 1950–2010. The methods are implemented in the bayesLife and bayesPop R packages. RESULTS We evaluated our model using out-of-sample projections for the period 1995–2010, and found that our method performed better than several possible alternatives. CONCLUSIONS We find that the average gap between female and male life expectancy has been increasing for female life expectancy below 75, and decreasing for female life expectancy above 75. Our projections of the gap are lower than the UN’s 2008 projections for most countries and so lead to higher projections of male life expectancy. PMID:25580082

The Occupational Expectations of Undergraduate Students in the Conservatory Piano Majors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çevik Kiliç, Deniz Beste; Baltacilar Bayoglu, Talia Özlem; Güner Canbey, Ebru

2018-01-01

An expectation is the belief that a certain action will lead to a given outcome. It is noteworthy to reveal individuals' expectations from their future occupations. The quality and success of education are undoubtedly related to meeting their occupational expectations in the future. In this regard, it is of critical importance to investigate the…

Ultra-wideband technology radio frequency interference effects to global positioning system receivers and interference encounter scenario development : second interim report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-03-27

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is significant because it is a key element in the development of the Free Flight" air traffic management structure of the future which is needed to enable the expected growth of air travel and alleviate the current...

The Use of Twitter for Professional Growth and Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerstein, Jackie

2011-01-01

Twitter, the micro blogging tool, has seen unprecedented growth in the past year and is expected to continue into the future. Twitter's power, engagement, and popularity lie in its endless networking opportunities. Its potential as a venue for professional growth and development needs to be explored, discussed, and ultimately used as such. A brief…

Heritage Language Development: Preserving a Mythic Past or Envisioning the Future of Canadian Identity?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guardado, Martin

2010-01-01

This article, part of a larger study, examines three middle-class, Hispanic Canadian families' conceptualizations of language, culture, and identity. Via an analysis of interview data, the findings indicate that the parents assigned diverse meanings to heritage language development (HLD) and held high expectations for their children's formation of…

Unmanned airship development and remote sensing applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boschma, James H.

2001-10-01

This paper discusses the development of unmanned airships for military use during the past decade, and the current status of the Small Airship Surveillance System, Low Intensity Target Exploitation (SASS LITE) platform. Topics covered will also include various missions planned and conducted, and technological advances expected to be implemented on unmanned airships in the near future.

AMSD Cryo Actuator Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mullette, Mark; Matthews, Gary; Russell, Kevin (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The actuator technology required for AMSD and subsequently NGST are critical in the successful development for future cryogenic systems. Kodak has undertaken an extensive test plan to determine the performance of the force actuators developed under the AMSD program. These actuators are currently in testing at MSFC and are expected to finish this test cycle in early June 2002.

Extending DART to meet the data acquisition needs of future experiments at Fermilab

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oleynik, G.; Pordes, R.; Barsotti, E.

1995-10-01

The DART project at Fermilab is a major collaboration to develop a data acquisition system for multiple experiments. The initial implementation of DART has concentrated on providing working data acquisition systems for the (now eight) collaborating experiments in the next Fixed Target Run. In this paper we discuss aspects of the architecture of DART and how these will allow it to be extended to meet the expected needs of future experiments at Fermilab. We also discuss some ongoing developments within the Fermilab Computing Division towards these new implementations.

Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, S.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable in the future due to climate change coupled with rapid urbanization. Thus, protecting future groundwater resources under the impact of urbanization and climate change is necessary towards more sustainable groundwater resource development. This study is intended to shed lights on how water managers may plan for the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater quality. A new approach is presented in which the groundwater vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is employed as a constraint to urban expansion. An original form of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) and a revised LTM simulation are applied to model the urbanization. The results indicated that there would be a notable and uneven urban growth between 2010 and 2050. Future groundwater vulnerability is expected to shift significantly under future climate change scenarios. The results of the revised LTM project more urban expansion in the central regions of China, while those of the original LTM project urban expansion in throughout China, although the two projections have the same areas of expansion. The urban expansion simulated by the original LTM follows the historical trend under the drivers of socioeconomic, political and geographic factors. However, the revised LTM drives the urban expansion to the regions with relatively lower groundwater vulnerability, in contrast to the historical trend. This study demonstrates that the integration of LTM and future groundwater vulnerability in the urban planning can better protect the groundwater resource and promote more sustainable socioeconomic development. The methodology developed in this study provides water managers and city planners a useful groundwater management tool for mitigating the risks associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.

A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortes, Antonio I.

The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer hypotheses for human testing using flight simulators.

Some current factors influencing the prescribing and use of psychiatric drugs.

PubMed Central

Poulsen, R L

1992-01-01

A reprise of selected known factors about the influences affecting the prescribing and use of drugs, and some new developments in the drug marketplace, are the basis for this summary and observations about future expectations regarding psychotherapeutic agents. This information can be used to assist in formulating or updating, or both, conceptualizations and hypotheses for future policy and research planning in this area. PMID:1738808

Creativity and connections: the future of nursing education and practice: the Massachusetts Initiative.

PubMed

Sroczynski, Maureen; Gravlin, Gayle; Route, Paulette Seymour; Hoffart, Nancy; Creelman, Patricia

2011-01-01

Education and practice partnerships are key to effective academic program design and implementation in a time of decreasing supply and increasing demands on the nursing profession. An integrated education/practice competency model can positively impact patient safety, improve patient care, increase retention, and ensure a sufficient and competent nursing workforce, which is paramount to survival of the health care system. Through the contributions of nursing leaders from the broad spectrum of nursing and industry organizations within the state, the Massachusetts Nurse of the Future project developed a competency-based framework for the future design of nursing educational programs to meet current and future practice needs. The Massachusetts Nurse of the Future Nursing Core Competencies(©) expand on the Institute of Medicine's core competencies for all health care professionals and the Quality and Safety Education for Nurses competencies for quality and safety to define the expectations for all professional nurses of the future. The Massachusetts Nurse of the Future Nursing Core Competencies define the knowledge, attitude, and skills required as the minimal expectations for initial nursing practice following completion of a prelicensure professional nursing education program. These competencies are now being integrated into new models for seamless, coordinated nursing curriculum and transition into practice within the state and beyond. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Growing Nurse Leaders: Their Perspectives on Nursing Leadership and Today’s Practice Environment

PubMed

Dyess, Susan M; Sherman, Rose O; Pratt, Beth A; Chiang-Hanisko, Lenny

2016-01-14

With the growing complexity of healthcare practice environments and pending nurse leader retirements, the development of future nurse leaders is increasingly important. This article reports on focus group research conducted with Generation Y nurses prior to their initiating coursework in a Master’s Degree program designed to support development of future nurse leaders. Forty-four emerging nurse leaders across three program cohorts participated in this qualitative study conducted to capture perspectives about nursing leaders and leadership. Conventional content analysis was used to analyze and code the data into categories. We discuss the three major categories identified, including: idealistic expectations of leaders, leading in a challenging practice environment, and cautious but optimistic outlook about their own leadership and future, and study limitations. The conclusion offers implications for future nurse leader development. The findings provide important insight into the viewpoints of nurses today about leaders and leadership.

WW Physics at Future e{sup +}e{sup -} Linear Colliders

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barklow, Timothy L

Measurements of triple gauge boson couplings and strong electroweak symmetry breaking effects at future e{sup +}e{sup -} linear colliders are reviewed. The results expected from a future e{sup +}e{sup -} linear collider are compared with LHC expectations.

Responding to Vaccine Safety Signals during Pandemic Influenza: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Maro, Judith C.; Fryback, Dennis G.; Lieu, Tracy A.; Lee, Grace M.; Martin, David B.

2014-01-01

Background Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system. Methods We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1) expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4) expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons. Results Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3∶1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior. Conclusions The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior. PMID:25536228

Solid waste management complex site development plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greager, T.M.

1994-09-30

The main purpose of this Solid Waste Management Complex Site Development Plan is to optimize the location of future solid waste treatment and storage facilities and the infrastructure required to support them. An overall site plan is recommended. Further, a series of layouts are included that depict site conditions as facilities are constructed at the SWMC site. In this respect the report serves not only as the siting basis for future projects, but provides siting guidance for Project W-112, as well. The plan is intended to function as a template for expected growth of the site over the next 30more » years so that future facilities and infrastructure will be properly integrated.« less

A forecasting study on Chinese television development (1986 to 2001).

PubMed

Sun, L

1988-01-01

Given its widespread availability and impact on social values, television is expected to play an important role in China's modernization drive. Necessary to this process is a detailed analysis of the framework in which the technical aspects of television's development are related to political, economic, telecommunications, and social factors. To facilitate this analysis, a Delphi survey was conducted in 1986 as was a cross-impact analysis assisted by computer modelling. Entitled "Future Development of Chinese Television, 1986-2001," the Delphi survey sought to provide decision makers with operationally meaningful assistance in the form of information and analysis. The responses from experts suggested that, if economic growth can be sustained over the next 5 years, telecommunications development will receive top priority in state planning. Cross-impact analysis helps to clarify and promote better understanding of the complex relationships among future events and trends. This analysis tended to confirm the hypothesis that a nongovernmental television station is unlikely to emerge before 1991. Crucial to the success of any television policy (such as cable television service or videotext systems) is legislative support. The appearance of a nongovernmental television station would have a considerable impact on the private sector in China and lead to competition in programming quality, attracting audiences, and further commercialization. While the future development of Chinese television is dependent on economic factors such as purchasing power and the quality of life, its development can thus also be expected to exert a strong influence on economic life.

Adolescents' future orientation and nonmedical use of prescription drugs.

PubMed

Steiger, Rena M; Stoddard, Sarah A; Pierce, Jennifer

2017-02-01

How adolescents think about their future (i.e., future orientation) impacts their risk-taking behavior. The purpose of the present analysis was to explore whether future orientation (future planning, perceived risk to future goals, and positive future expectations) was associated with nonmedical use of stimulants and analgesics in a sample of high school students. Information on future orientation and nonmedical use of prescription drugs (NMUPD) were collected using a paper-and-pencil survey from a sample of 9th-12th grade students in a Midwestern school. Higher perceived risk to future goals and positive future expectations were associated with a lower likelihood of self-reported nonmedical use of stimulants (n=250; OR=0.46, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.83; OR=0.15, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.47, respectively). Only higher perceived risk to future goals was associated with a lower likelihood of self-reported nonmedical use of analgesics (n=250; OR=0.40, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.68). In a follow-up analysis limited to students who endorsed alcohol or marijuana use, perceived risk to future goals remained associated with a lower likelihood of nonmedical use of stimulants and analgesics. Results suggest that risk perception might be a salient protective factor against both nonmedical use of stimulants and analgesics. Overall, the differential impact of conceptualizations of future orientation might depend on the class of prescription drug used, demonstrating a need to consider prescription drugs individually in the development of future studies and interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intravitreal, Subretinal, and Suprachoroidal Injections: Evolution of Microneedles for Drug Delivery.

PubMed

Hartman, Rachel R; Kompella, Uday B

Even though the very thought of an injection into the eye may be frightening, an estimated 6 million intravitreal (IVT) injections were made in the USA during 2016. With the introduction of new therapeutic agents, this number is expected to increase. In addition, drug products that are injectable in ocular compartments other than the vitreous humor are expected to enter the back of the eye market in the not so distant future. Besides the IVT route, some of the most actively investigated routes of invasive administration to the eye include periocular, subretinal, and suprachoroidal (SC) routes. While clinical efficacy is the driving force behind new injectable drug product development for the eye, safety is also being improved with time. In the case of IVT injections, the procedural guidelines have evolved over the years to improve patient comfort and reduce injection-related injury and infection. Similar advances are anticipated for other routes of administration of injectable products to the eye. In addition to procedural improvements, the design of needles, particularly those with smaller diameters, length, and controlled bevel angles are expected to improve overall safety and acceptance of injected ophthalmic drug products. A key development in this area is the introduction of microneedles of a length less than a millimeter that can target the SC space. In the future, needles with smaller diameters and lengths, potentially approaching nanodimensions, are expected to revolutionize ophthalmic disease management.

An Investigation of Senior Vocational School Students' Perceptions of the Future through Their Drawings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yukay Yuksel, Muge; Aksak, Meryem; Arican, Tugce; Bakan, Muhsin

2016-01-01

Problem Statement: Expectations/perceptions of the future are important concepts at every stage of life. However, these concepts become more important in adolescence, during which critical decisions about the future are made. Adolescents' expectations/perceptions of the future are vital from the perspectives of the families they live with, their…

Life-Course Transitions Among Adolescents With and Without Disabilities

PubMed Central

Shandra, Carrie L.

2015-01-01

Research on adolescents suggests that young people are able to form reasonable expectations about future life-course transitions—and that these expectations are predictive of future outcomes. However, less is known about how these expectations might vary for adolescents with disabilities, who might face additional challenges when transitioning to adulthood. The present study addresses this gap in the literature by using nationally representative data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) to suggest that young people's expectations about pregnancy, parenthood, education, and employment do vary according to disability status. Furthermore, disability status conditions the relationship between these expectations and their future outcomes. In general, adolescents with disabilities are more proficient in the prediction of educational outcomes than employment or pregnancy outcomes. However, their expectations about education are significantly lower—and expectations about teenage parenthood much higher—than those of adolescents without disabilities. PMID:25926707

Possible Improvements to MCNP6 and its CEM/LAQGSM Event-Generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mashnik, Stepan Georgievich

2015-08-04

This report is intended to the MCNP6 developers and sponsors of MCNP6. It presents a set of suggested possible future improvements to MCNP6 and to its CEM03.03 and LAQGSM03.03 event-generators. A few suggested modifications of MCNP6 are quite simple, aimed at avoiding possible problems with running MCNP6 on various computers, i.e., these changes are not expected to change or improve any results, but should make the use of MCNP6 easier; such changes are expected to require limited man-power resources. On the other hand, several other suggested improvements require a serious further development of nuclear reaction models, are expected to improvemore » significantly the predictive power of MCNP6 for a number of nuclear reactions; but, such developments require several years of work by real experts on nuclear reactions.« less

Nano-technology contributions towards the development of high performance radioisotope generators: The future promise to meet the continuing clinical demand.

PubMed

Sakr, Tamer M; Nawar, Mohamed F; Fasih, T W; El-Bayoumy, S; Abd El-Rehim, H A

2017-11-01

Nanostructured materials attracted considerable attention because of its high surface area to volume ratio resulting from their nano-scale dimensions. This class of sorbents is expected to have a potential impact on enhancement the efficacy of radioisotope generators for diagnostic and therapeutic applications in nuclear medicine. This review provides a summary on the importance of nanostructured materials as effective sorbents for the development of clinical-scale radioisotope generators and outlining the assessment of recent developments, key challenges and promising access to the near future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Development of Educational Research Literacy: The Effect of Courses on Research Methods in Studies of Educational Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groß Ophoff, Jana; Schladitz, Sandra; Leuders, Juliane; Leuders, Timo; Wirtz, Markus A.

2015-01-01

The ability to purposefully access, reflect, and use evidence from educational research (Educational Research Literacy) is expected of future professionals in educational practice. Based on the presented conceptual framework, a test instrument was developed to assess the different competency aspects: Information Literacy, Statistical Literacy, and…

76 FR 59623 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition To List the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-27

... and organizations (Tremblay et al. 2005, pp. 481- 482), we expect that current and future urban... Tamaulipan agapema to live in an urban environment. Peigler and Kendall (1993, p. 4) noted that adults of..., (2) urban development, and (3) climate change. Agricultural Development The loss of Tamaulipan...

Fertilization, weed control, and pine litter influence loblolly pine stem productivity and root development

Treesearch

James D. Haywood; Allan E. Tiarks; Mark A. Sword

1997-01-01

Development of forest plantations may be delayed or yield expectations curtailed by interference from competing vegetation. Competing vegetation can be controlled with herbicides after crop trees are planted, but herbicide use in public and private loblolly pine plantations may face greater restrictions in the future. Fortunately, there are ways to manage competition...

The Leadership Journey

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-01

an orchestra fails to effectively communicate his expectations for the musical program, each individual musician is going to perform within their...for the informal leadership development of Air Force members. The Air Force formal training programs touch on leadership, but unfortunately they...that prides itself on developing the future leaders of our nation’s military provide such little guidance in regards to individual leadership

The Development of an Attribution-Based Theory of Motivation: A History of Ideas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiner, Bernard

2010-01-01

The history of ideas guiding the development of an attribution-based theory of motivation is presented. These influences include the search for a "grand" theory of motivation (from drive and expectancy/value theory), an attempt to represent how the past may influence the present and the future (as Thorndike accomplished), and the…

Who Is Not Sleeping with Whom? What's Not Being Talked about in HRD?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trehan, Kiran

2004-01-01

Human resource development (HRD) occupies some interesting educational territory. Given the rapid pace of development and innovation in education and in the practice of HRD, coupled with alternative approaches to learning, a re-evaluation of HRD might be expected to be a prominent feature within discussions of the future practice of HRD. However,…

Pushing the Boundaries of X-ray Grating Spectroscopy in a Suborbital Rocket

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McEntaffer, Randall L.; DeRoo, Casey; Schultz, Ted; Zhang, William W.; Murray, Neil J.; O'Dell, Stephen; Cash, Webster

2013-01-01

Developments in grating spectroscopy are paramount for meeting the soft X-ray science goals of future NASA X-ray Observatories. While developments in the laboratory setting have verified the technical feasibility of using off-plane reflection gratings to reach this goal, flight heritage is a key step in the development process toward large missions. To this end we have developed a design for a suborbital rocket payload employing an Off-Plane X-ray Grating Spectrometer. This spectrometer utilizes slumped glass Wolter-1 optics, an array of gratings, and a CCD camera. We discuss the unique capabilities of this design, the expected performance, the science return, and the perceived impact to future missions.

Thermal and Mechanical Microspacecraft Technologies for X-2000 Future Deliveries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birur, Gaj; Bruno, Robin

1999-01-01

Thermal and mechanical technologies are an important part of the X-2000 Future Delivery (X-2000 FD) microspacecraft. A wide range of future space missions are expected to utilize the technologies and the architecture developed by the X-2000 FD. These technologies, besides being small in physical size, make the tiny spacecraft robust and flexible. The X2000 FD architecture is designed to be highly reliable and suitable for a wide range of missions such as planetary landers/orbiters/flybys, earth orbiters, cometary flybys/landers/sample returns, etc. One of the key ideas used in the development of these technologies and architecture is that several functions be in included in each of the thermal and mechanical elements. One of the thermal architecture being explored for the X-2000 FD microspacecraft is integrated thermal energy management of the complete spacecraft using a fluid loop. The robustness and the simplicity of the loop and the flexibility with which it can be integrated in the spacecraft have made it attractive for applications to X-2000 FD. Some of the thermal technologies to be developed as a part of this architecture are passive and active cooling loops, electrically variable emittance surfaces, miniature thermal switches, and specific high density electronic cooling technologies. In the mechanical area, multifunction architecture for the structural elements will be developed. The multifunction aspect is expected to substantially reduce the mass and volume of the spacecraft. Some of the technologies that will be developed are composite material panels incorporating electronics, cabling, and thermal elements in them. The paper to be presented at the 1999 conference, will describe the progress made so far in the microspacecraft thermal and mechanical technologies and approaches for the X2000 Future Deliveries microspacecraft.

A top-down approach to projecting market impacts of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemoine, Derek; Kapnick, Sarah

2016-01-01

To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climate's variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.

Future Asian Education: The Challenge of Numbers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adiseshiah, Malcolm S.

1980-01-01

Probes educational problems and needs in the developing nations of Asia. The major problems are overpopulation, poor educational facilities in rural areas, insufficient financial resources, inappropriate educational models and objectives, and unrealistically high expectations. More recent educational models stress equalizing educational access and…

Think first job! Preferences and expectations of engineering students in a French `Grande Ecole'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerwel Proches, Cecile N.; Chelin, Nathalie; Rouvrais, Siegfried

2018-03-01

A career in engineering may be appealing owing to the prospect of a good salary and a dynamic work environment. There may, however, be challenges for students wishing to enter their first job. In engineering education, career preparation courses may be included so as to prepare students adequately for their first job, future careers, and to reinforce career decision-making skills. This study explored the first-job preferences and expectations of engineering students at a generalist French 'Grande Ecole' before their compulsory internship. The study ultimately provided insight into ways in which future engineers may best be equipped for their first jobs. A qualitative research study was employed, using four focus groups to collect data, which was analysed thematically. Key findings indicate the resolute importance that engineering students place on having a challenging job, teamwork, independence, opportunities for development, and a participative style of being managed. The research findings may be of value in order to renew an engineering curriculum with better alignment between students' expectations and industry needs.

Systems biology for molecular life sciences and its impact in biomedicine.

PubMed

Medina, Miguel Ángel

2013-03-01

Modern systems biology is already contributing to a radical transformation of molecular life sciences and biomedicine, and it is expected to have a real impact in the clinical setting in the next years. In this review, the emergence of systems biology is contextualized with a historic overview, and its present state is depicted. The present and expected future contribution of systems biology to the development of molecular medicine is underscored. Concerning the present situation, this review includes a reflection on the "inflation" of biological data and the urgent need for tools and procedures to make hidden information emerge. Descriptions of the impact of networks and models and the available resources and tools for applying them in systems biology approaches to molecular medicine are provided as well. The actual current impact of systems biology in molecular medicine is illustrated, reviewing two cases, namely, those of systems pharmacology and cancer systems biology. Finally, some of the expected contributions of systems biology to the immediate future of molecular medicine are commented.

Through the eyes of children: perceptions of environmental change in tropical forests.

PubMed

Pellier, Anne-Sophie; Wells, Jessie A; Abram, Nicola K; Gaveau, David; Meijaard, Erik

2014-01-01

This study seeks to understand children's perceptions of their present and future environments in the highly biodiverse and rapidly changing landscapes of Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. We analyzed drawings by children (target age 10-15 years) from 22 villages, which show how children perceive the present conditions of forests and wildlife surrounding their villages and how they expect conditions to change over the next 15 years. Analyses of picture elements and their relationships to current landscape variables indicate that children have a sophisticated understanding of their environment and how different environmental factors interact, either positively or negatively. Children appear to have landscape-dependent environmental perceptions, showing awareness of past environmental conditions and many aspects of recent trends, and translating these into predictions for future environmental conditions. The further removed their present landscape is from the originally forested one, the more environmental change they expect in the future, particularly declines in forest cover, rivers, animal diversity and increases in temperature and natural disasters. This suggests that loss of past perceptions and associated "shifting environmental baselines" do not feature strongly among children on Borneo, at least not for the perceptions we investigated here. Our findings that children have negative expectations of their future environmental conditions have important political implications. More than other generations, children have a stake in ensuring that future environmental conditions support their long-term well-being. Understanding what drives environmental views among children, and how they consider trade-offs between economic development and social and environmental change, should inform optimal policies on land use. Our study illuminates part of the complex interplay between perceptions of land cover and land use change. Capturing the views of children through artistic expressions provides a potentially powerful tool to influence public and political opinions, as well as a valuable approach for developing localized education and nature conservation programs.

Through the Eyes of Children: Perceptions of Environmental Change in Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Pellier, Anne-Sophie; Wells, Jessie A.; Abram, Nicola K.; Gaveau, David; Meijaard, Erik

2014-01-01

This study seeks to understand children's perceptions of their present and future environments in the highly biodiverse and rapidly changing landscapes of Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. We analyzed drawings by children (target age 10–15 years) from 22 villages, which show how children perceive the present conditions of forests and wildlife surrounding their villages and how they expect conditions to change over the next 15 years. Analyses of picture elements and their relationships to current landscape variables indicate that children have a sophisticated understanding of their environment and how different environmental factors interact, either positively or negatively. Children appear to have landscape-dependent environmental perceptions, showing awareness of past environmental conditions and many aspects of recent trends, and translating these into predictions for future environmental conditions. The further removed their present landscape is from the originally forested one, the more environmental change they expect in the future, particularly declines in forest cover, rivers, animal diversity and increases in temperature and natural disasters. This suggests that loss of past perceptions and associated “shifting environmental baselines” do not feature strongly among children on Borneo, at least not for the perceptions we investigated here. Our findings that children have negative expectations of their future environmental conditions have important political implications. More than other generations, children have a stake in ensuring that future environmental conditions support their long-term well-being. Understanding what drives environmental views among children, and how they consider trade-offs between economic development and social and environmental change, should inform optimal policies on land use. Our study illuminates part of the complex interplay between perceptions of land cover and land use change. Capturing the views of children through artistic expressions provides a potentially powerful tool to influence public and political opinions, as well as a valuable approach for developing localized education and nature conservation programs. PMID:25093658

The development of occupational aspirations and expectations among inner-city boys.

PubMed

Cook, T D; Church, M B; Ajanaku, S; Shadish, W R; Kim, J R; Cohen, R

1996-12-01

The occupational aspirations and expectations of two populations of boys in grades 2, 4, 6, and 8 were examined in order (1) to describe what is unique about the development of job preferences among urban ghetto children who live in settings where many adult males are not well attached to the labor force and (2) to examine 6 reasons for any age- and population-dependent patterns there might be in job aspirations and job expectations. Findings show that boys tend to be more realistic about occupational aspirations and expectations the older they are; that from second grade on the occupational expectations of inner-city boys mirror existing race and class differences in adult job holdings; that the gap between occupational aspirations and expectations is greater for the ghetto boys and remains roughly constant in size across the grades examined; and that the lower occupational expectations of the inner-city boys are strongly related to their lower educational expectations, with these educational expectations being associated with fewer poor boys having a biological father at home and with more of these boys seeing obstacles to success in the local social setting. But, the lower occupational expectations of the ghetto boys are not due to having fewer positive role models or believing that schooling will not pay off for them in the future as it does for others.

Top-down modulation in the infant brain: Learning-induced expectations rapidly affect the sensory cortex at 6 months.

PubMed

Emberson, Lauren L; Richards, John E; Aslin, Richard N

2015-08-04

Recent theoretical work emphasizes the role of expectation in neural processing, shifting the focus from feed-forward cortical hierarchies to models that include extensive feedback (e.g., predictive coding). Empirical support for expectation-related feedback is compelling but restricted to adult humans and nonhuman animals. Given the considerable differences in neural organization, connectivity, and efficiency between infant and adult brains, it is a crucial yet open question whether expectation-related feedback is an inherent property of the cortex (i.e., operational early in development) or whether expectation-related feedback develops with extensive experience and neural maturation. To determine whether infants' expectations about future sensory input modulate their sensory cortices without the confounds of stimulus novelty or repetition suppression, we used a cross-modal (audiovisual) omission paradigm and used functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) to record hemodynamic responses in the infant cortex. We show that the occipital cortex of 6-month-old infants exhibits the signature of expectation-based feedback. Crucially, we found that this region does not respond to auditory stimuli if they are not predictive of a visual event. Overall, these findings suggest that the young infant's brain is already capable of some rudimentary form of expectation-based feedback.

[Modes of action of agrochemicals against plant pathogenic organisms].

PubMed

Leroux, Pierre

2003-01-01

The chemical control of plant pathogens concerns mainly fungal diseases of crops. Most of the available fungicides act directly on essential fungal functions such as respiration, sterol biosynthesis or cell division. Consequently, these compounds can exhibit undesirable toxicological and environmental effects and sometimes select fungal resistant strains. Plant activators are expected to provide sustainable disease management in several crops because the development of resistance is not expected. Considering the future, the discovery of novel antifungal molecules will reap advantage from throughput screening methodologies and functional genomics.

Thermal and Mechanical Microspacecraft Technologies for Deep Space Systems Program X2000 Future Deliveries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birur, Gajanana C.; Bruno, Robin J.

1999-01-01

Thermal and mechanical technologies are an important part of the Deep Space Systems Technology (DSST) Program X2000 Future Deliveries (FD) microspacecraft. A wide range of future space missions are expected to utilize the technologies and the architecture developed by DSST FD. These technologies, besides being small in physical size, make the tiny spacecraft robust and flexible. The DSST FD architecture is designed to be highly reliable and suitable for a wide range of missions such as planetary landers/orbiters/flybys, earth orbiters, cometary flybys/landers/sample returns, etc. Two of the key ideas used in the development of thermal and mechanical technologies and architectures are: 1) to include several of the thermal and mechanical functions in any given single spacecraft element and 2) the architecture be modular so that it can easily be adapted to any of the future missions. One of the thermal architectures being explored for the DSST FD microspacecraft is the integrated thermal energy management of the complete spacecraft using a fluid loop. The robustness and the simplicity of the loop and the flexibility with which it can be integrated in the spacecraft have made it attractive for applications to DSST FD. Some of the thermal technologies to be developed as a part of this architecture are passive and active cooling loops, electrically variable emittance surfaces, miniature thermal switches, and specific high density electronic cooling technologies. In the mechanical area, multifunction architecture for the structural elements will be developed. The multifunction aspect is expected to substantially reduce the mass and volume of the spacecraft. Some of the technologies that will be developed are composite material panels incorporating electronics, cabling, and thermal elements in them. The paper describes the current state of the technologies and progress to be made in the thermal and mechanical technologies and approaches for the DSST Future Deliveries microspacecraft.

Predictors of Future Expectations of Inner-City Children: A 9-Month Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Arnett, Mitzi; Smith, Katherine; Ippolito, Maria F.

2001-01-01

Assessed contributions of internal resources, supportive family and peer relations, peer negative influences, and behavioral adjustment to positive expectations for the future for inner-city school children. Found that higher levels of positive expectation related to lower levels of problem behavior and to higher levels of school involvement,…

Regulatory focus affects predictions of the future.

PubMed

Guo, Tieyuan; Spina, Roy

2015-02-01

This research investigated how regulatory focus might influence trend-reversal predictions. We hypothesized that compared with promotion focus, prevention focus hinders sense of control, which in turn predicts more trend-reversal developments. Studies 1 and 3 revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur when they focused on prevention than when they focused on promotion. Study 2 extended the findings by including a control condition, and revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur in the prevention condition than in the promotion and control conditions. Studies 4 and 5 revealed that participants' chronic prevention focus predicted a low sense of control (Study 4), and that promotion focus predicted a high sense of control (Studies 4 and 5). Furthermore, participants with a high sense of control expected trend-reversal developments to be less likely to occur. Thus, the results provided converging evidence for the hypothesis. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to drive urban expansion based on numerous policies visions to mitigate future flood risk along the Meuse River. In particular, we assess the impacts on future flood risk of the prohibition of urban development in high and/or medium flood hazard zones. Acknowledgements The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

Intelligent Systems for Power Management and Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Button, Robert M.

2002-01-01

The motivation behind an advanced technology program to develop intelligent power management and distribution (PMAD) systems is described. The program concentrates on developing digital control and distributed processing algorithms for PMAD components and systems to improve their size, weight, efficiency, and reliability. Specific areas of research in developing intelligent DC-DC converters and distributed switchgear are described. Results from recent development efforts are presented along with expected future benefits to the overall PMAD system performance.

Commercial Uses of Broadband Communications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahn, Ephraim

The need for commercial communications is expected to grow substantially in the future. Whether telephone companies meet most of this demand seems to depend on three major factors: regulatory actions, the development of alternative technology, and the telephone companies themselves. The Federal Communications Commission is considering requiring…

2D Array of Far-infrared Thermal Detectors: Noise Measurements and Processing Issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakew, B.; Aslam, S.; Stevenson, T.

2008-01-01

A magnesium diboride (MgB2) detector 2D array for use in future space-based spectrometers is being developed at GSFC. Expected pixel sensitivities and comparison to current state-of-the-art infrared (IR) detectors will be discussed.

Succession Planning: A Necessary Strategy for Rural School Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallin, Dawn C.

2001-01-01

Succession planning focuses on anticipated future administrative positions, the expected skill requirements of those positions, and developing potential candidates to fill the positions. Although succession planning is basically a business oriented model, it seems appropriate for rural educational settings. Strategies for implementing succession…

Prospects for Accelerator Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, Alan

2011-02-01

Accelerator technology today is a greater than US$5 billion per annum business. Development of higher-performance technology with improved reliability that delivers reduced system size and life cycle cost is expected to significantly increase the total accelerator technology market and open up new application sales. Potential future directions are identified and pitfalls in new market penetration are considered. Both of the present big market segments, medical radiation therapy units and semiconductor ion implanters, are approaching the "maturity" phase of their product cycles, where incremental development rather than paradigm shifts is the norm, but they should continue to dominate commercial sales for some time. It is anticipated that large discovery-science accelerators will continue to provide a specialty market beset by the unpredictable cycles resulting from the scale of the projects themselves, coupled with external political and economic drivers. Although fraught with differing market entry difficulties, the security and environmental markets, together with new, as yet unrealized, industrial material processing applications, are expected to provide the bulk of future commercial accelerator technology growth.

Experiences and Future Expectations towards Online Courses--An Empirical Study of the B2C-and B2B-Segments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krämer, Andreas; Böhrs, Sandra

2016-01-01

This article explores the future potential for the development of online courses. The findings are based on an empirical study with 3 sample groups: (1) B2C segment in Germany, (2) B2C segment in the United States, and (3) B2B segment (international). In the first step the status quo of the use of e-learning in general and online courses in…

Motivated Implicit Theories of Personality: My Weaknesses Will Go Away, but My Strengths Are Here to Stay.

PubMed

Steimer, Andreas; Mata, André

2016-04-01

Across six studies, this research found consistent evidence for motivated implicit theories about personality malleability: People perceive their weaknesses as more malleable than their strengths. Moreover, motivation also influences how people see themselves in the future, such that they expect their present strengths to remain constant, but they expect their present weaknesses to improve in the future. Several additional findings suggest the motivational nature of these effects: The difference in perceived malleability for strengths versus weaknesses was only observed for the self, not for other people. When the desirability of possessing a certain trait was manipulated, that trait was perceived to be more malleable when it was depicted as undesirable. And these different beliefs that people have about how malleable their traits are, and how they will develop in the future, were associated with their desire for change, which is higher for weaknesses versus strengths. © 2016 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Facing the future: the effects of the impending financial drought on NHS finances and how UK radiology services can contribute to expected efficiency savings

PubMed Central

Grant, L; Appleby, J; Griffin, N; Adam, A; Gishen, P

2012-01-01

The recent turmoil within the banking sector has led to the development of the most significant recession since the “great depression” of the 1930s. Although the coalition government has promised to “guarantee that health spending increases in real terms in each year of Parliament”, this may still not be enough to meet future needs over the coming years due to increasing demand and cost pressures. The expected mismatch between actual National Health Service (NHS) funding post-2011 and that required to satisfy increasing demand has been estimated by the Department of Health to require efficiency savings representing up to one-fifth of the overall NHS budget. This paper explains the reasons behind the anticipated slowdown in the growth of real NHS funding, and how, as a discipline, radiology can increase the efficiency of the services it provides in anticipation of future financial austerity within the NHS. PMID:22167516

Future Perfect?: Teachers' Expectations and Explanations of Their Latino Immigrant Students' Postsecondary Futures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dabach, Dafney Blanca; Suárez-Orozco, Carola; Hernandez, Sera J.; Brooks, Maneka Deanna

2018-01-01

Teacher expectancy research has demonstrated the greatest effects for members of racialized groups. Most research has focused on students' near-term abilities; missing are understandings of how teachers perceive their students' future trajectories. Drawing on social mirroring and attribution theories, this study investigates how 14 elementary,…

Genetic maladaptation of coastal Douglas-fir seedlings to future climates

Treesearch

Brad St. Clair;  Glenn T. Howe

2007-01-01

Climates are expected to warm considerably over the next century, resulting in expectations that plant populations will not be adapted to future climates.We estimated the risk of maladaptation of current populations of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to future climates as the proportion of nonoverlap between two normal...

Mexican American Seventh Graders' Future Work and Family Plans: Associations with Cultural Experiences and Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cansler, Emily; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Simpkins, Sandra D.

2012-01-01

We describe Mexican American seventh graders' expectations for future work and family roles and investigate links between patterns of future expectations and adolescents' cultural experiences and adjustment. Adolescents participated in home interviews and a series of seven nightly phone calls. Five unique patterns of adolescents' future…

Future Expectations of Brasilian Street Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raffaelli, M.; Koller, S.H.

2005-01-01

Future expectations of youth surviving on the streets of Porto Alegre, Brasil, were examined. The sample consisted of 35 boys and 34 girls aged 10-18 (M age 14.4) who participated in a sentence completion task and semi-structured interviews. Responses to two incomplete sentences regarding the future revealed a mismatch between hoped-for and…

Difference between received and expected knowledge of patients undergoing knee or hip replacement in seven European countries.

PubMed

Klemetti, Seija; Leino-Kilpi, Helena; Cabrera, Esther; Copanitsanou, Panagiota; Ingadottir, Brynja; Istomina, Natalja; Katajisto, Jouko; Papastavrou, Evridiki; Unosson, Mitra; Valkeapää, Kirsi

2015-12-01

The purpose of the study was to examine received and expected knowledge of patients with knee/hip arthroplasty in seven European countries. The goal was to obtain information for developing empowering patient education. The data were collected (during 2009-2012) from patients (n = 943) with hip/knee arthroplasty prior to scheduled preoperative education and before discharge with the Received Knowledge of hospital patient scale (RKhp) and Expected Knowledge of hospital patient scale (EKhp). Patients' knowledge expectations were high but the level of received knowledge did not correspond to expectations. The difference between received and expected knowledge was higher in Greece and Sweden compared with Finland (p < .0001, p < .0001), Spain (p < .0001, p = .001), and Lithuania (p = .005, p = .003), respectively. Patients' knowledge expectations are important in tailoring patient education. To achieve high standards in the future, scientific research collaboration on empowering patient education is needed between European countries. © The Author(s) 2014.

Competency-based Radiology Residency: A Survey of Expectations from Singapore's Perspective.

PubMed

Yang, Hui; Tan, Colin J X; Lau, Doreen A H; Lim, Winston E H; Tay, Kiang Hiong; Kei, Pin Lin

2015-03-01

In response to the demands of an ageing nation, the postgraduate medical education in Singapore is currently in the early stage of transition into the American-styled residency programme. This study assessed the expectations of both radiology trainees and faculty on their ideal clinical learning environment (CLE) which facilitates the programme development. A modified 23-item questionnaire was administered to both trainees and faculty at a local training hospital. All items were scored according to their envisioned level of importance and categorised into 5 main CLE domains-supervision, formal training programme, work-based learning, social atmosphere and workload. 'Supervision' was identified as the most important domain of the CLE by both trainees and faculty, followed by 'formal training programmes', 'work-based learning' and 'social atmosphere'. 'Workload' was rated as the least important domain. For all domains, the reported expectation between both trainees and faculty respondents did not differ significantly. Intragroup comparison also showed no significant difference within each group of respondents. This study has provided valuable insights on both respondents' expectations on their ideal CLE that can best train competency in future radiologists. Various approaches to address these concerns were also discussed. The similarities in findings between ours and previous studies suggest that the 'supervision', 'formal training programmes' and 'work-based learning' domains are crucial for the success of a postgraduate medical training and should be emphasised in future curriculum. 'Workload' remains a challenge in postgraduate medical training, but attempts to address this will have an impact in future radiology training.

Reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale-2.

PubMed

Resnick, Barbara

2005-10-01

Development of a reliable and valid measure of outcome expectations for exercise for older adults will help establish the relationship between outcome expectations and exercise and facilitate the development of interventions to increase physical activity in older adults. The purpose of this study was to test the reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise-2 Scale (OEE-2), a 13-item measure with two subscales: positive OEE (POEE) and negative OEE (NOEE). The OEE-2 scale was given to 161 residents in a continuing-care retirement community. There was some evidence of validity based on confirmatory factor analysis, Rasch-analysis INFIT and OUTFIT statistics, and convergent validity and test criterion relationships. There was some evidence for reliability of the OEE-2 based on alpha coefficients, person- and item-separation reliability indexes, and R(2)values. Based on analyses, suggested revisions are provided for future use of the OEE-2. Although ongoing reliability and validity testing are needed, the OEE-2 scale can be used to identify older adults with low outcome expectations for exercise, and interventions can then be implemented to strengthen these expectations and improve exercise behavior.

Mexican American 7th Graders’ Future Work and Family Plans: Associations with Cultural Experiences and Adjustment

PubMed Central

Cansler, Emily; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Simpkins, Sandra D.

2011-01-01

We describe Mexican American 7th graders’ expectations for future work and family roles and investigate links between patterns of future expectations and adolescents’ cultural experiences and adjustment. Adolescents participated in home interviews and a series of seven nightly phone calls. Five unique patterns of adolescents’ future expectations were identified (N = 246): Career Oriented, Independent, Family Oriented, Early, and Inconsistent. Career Oriented adolescents had the highest socioeconomic status and contact with the U.S. (e.g., generation status) whereas Family Oriented adolescents had the lowest. Cultural orientations, values, and involvement also varied across groups. For example, Career Oriented adolescents reported significantly higher familism values compared to Inconsistent adolescents. Clusters also differed on adjustment: Career Oriented and Family Oriented adolescents reported higher parental warmth and less risky behavior compared to Independent and Inconsistent adolescents. Findings underscore the multi-faceted nature of adolescents’ future expectations and the diversity in cultural experiences among Mexican origin youth. PMID:23338812

EVA Human Health and Performance Benchmarking Study Overview and Development of a Microgravity Protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norcross, Jason; Jarvis, Sarah; Bekdash, Omar; Cupples, Scott; Abercromby, Andrew

2017-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to develop a protocol to reliably characterize human health and performance metrics for individuals working inside various EVA suits under realistic spaceflight conditions. Expected results and methodologies developed during this study will provide the baseline benchmarking data and protocols with which future EVA suits and suit configurations (e.g., varied pressure, mass, center of gravity [CG]) and different test subject populations (e.g., deconditioned crewmembers) may be reliably assessed and compared. Results may also be used, in conjunction with subsequent testing, to inform fitness-for-duty standards, as well as design requirements and operations concepts for future EVA suits and other exploration systems.

Federal Investment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Sheila; Tawil, Natalie

2013-01-01

The federal government pays for a wide range of goods and services that are expected to be useful some years in the future. Those purchases, called investment, fall into three categories: physical capital, research and development (R&D), and education and training. There are several economic rationales for federal investment. It can provide…

Development and Validity-Reliability Study of a Teacher-Child Communication Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erbay, Filiz; Omeroglu, Esra; Cagdas, Aysel

2012-01-01

One of the essential factors for preschool education to succeed and meet expectations is the presence of teachers who have effective communication skills. Effective communication between preschool educators and children influences children's school adjustment, developmental outcomes in different domains, and their future relationship with…

The Nature of Work in a Changing Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Best, Fred

1985-01-01

Influences on the future world of work are considered: values and world views, knowledge and skills, management and organizational norms, general economic conditions, investment and savings, availability of raw materials, economic competition, and technological developments. Also discusses the rate of change and where transitions are expected to…

Intra-Company Communication: A Key Element in Marketing Strategy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frost, Fred A.

Rapid technological development, rising standards of living, and greater pressures of consumerism and consumer expectations have caused shorter product life cycles. Future organizational success will depend on organizations' abilities to respond to the changing opportunities and threats in the marketplace. As companies and products move through…

Training Programs: A Methodological Note.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Romi, Shlomo; Teichman, Meir

2001-01-01

Discusses the importance of situational factors in training program development, particularly in programs intended for professionals in the fields of mental health and social welfare. Proposes a methodological manner for selecting situations relevant to future tasks that revolve around the role the professional is expected to fulfill. (Author/LRW)

ICT and the future of health care: aspects of health promotion.

PubMed

Haluza, Daniela; Jungwirth, David

2015-01-01

Increasingly, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) applications enter the daily lives of consumers. Availability of various multimedia interfaces offers the opportunity to develop and adjust ICT solutions to all aspects of society including health care. To address the challenges of the ongoing adaptive progress of ICT, decision makers profit from estimates of expectable merits and risks of future technological developments. The aim of the present study was to assess the prevailing opinions and expectations among Austrian stakeholders regarding ICT-assisted health promotion. In total, 73 experts (74% males) engaged in the Austrian health care sector participated in a biphasic online Delphi survey. Panellists were assigned to three groups representing medical professionals, patient advocates, and administrative personnel. In a scenario-based questionnaire, experts evaluated potential advantages and barriers as well as degree of innovation, desirability, and estimated date of implementation of six future ICT scenarios. Scenario-specific and consolidated overall opinions were ranked. Inter-group differences were assessed using ANOVA. Panellists expected the future ICT-supported health promotion strategies to especially improve the factors living standard (56%), quality of health care (53%), and patient's knowledge (44%). Nevertheless, monetary aspects (57%), acceptance by patient advocates (45%), and data security and privacy (27%) were considered as the three most substantial hampering factors for ICT applications. Although overall mean desirability of the scenarios was quite high (80%) amongst panellists, it was considerably lower in medical professionals compared to patient advocates and administrative personnel (p=0.006). This observation suggests a more precautious attitude of this specific interest group regarding technological innovations. The present Delphi survey identified issues relevant for successful implementation of ICT-based health care solutions, providing a compilation of several areas that might require further research. In the light of ageing societies facing the perceived threat of permanent online surveillance, different requirements and expectations of end users should be accounted for by various stakeholders. Thus, close collaboration could facilitate the harmonization process on hot health topics among interest groups. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hollingsworth - Aggressive vs Indolent 2012 — EDRN Public Portal

Cancer.gov

Study Overview. We will examine DNA extracted from FFPE sections from approximately 200 different surgically resected primary pancreatic tumors from the UNMC Department of Pathology and Microbiology. DNA will be purified from those sections and subjected to deep sequencing for the entire TP53 locus. Expected Outcomes We expect to find a difference in the p53 mutation status between tumor samples from patients that ultimately experienced tumor recurrence (more aggressive) compared to those that did not. Parallel studies to develop ICP will enable us to rapidly develop a low cost platform to extend these studies to larger patient populations for future validation studies. Future Studies The experiments proposed in this application represent a state-of-the-art approach to identify molecular markers that will help clinicians to ascertain the tumor recurrence risk for their pancreatic cancer patients who have undergone a Whipple procedure. If our initial studies support the hypothesis that p53 mutations are associated with early metastasis of pancreatic cancer, these studies would be extended to other cohorts of patient samples that are available at other major centers that see pancreatic cancer patients. Development of ICE COLD-PCR platforms to screen for these mutations will facilitate a reliable, rapid and low cost method for predicting tumor aggressiveness in these patients, which will be deployed in future studies should the hypothesis be supported.

Expectations for Future Relationship Satisfaction: Unique Sources and Critical Implications for Commitment

PubMed Central

Baker, Levi R.; McNulty, James K.; VanderDrift, Laura E.

2017-01-01

Contemporary perspectives on relationship commitment posit that intimates decide whether or not to maintain a relationship based on their commitment to that relationship, and that they base such commitment partially on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Nevertheless, given that ending a relationship requires knowing about both the current state of the relationship and the likely future state of the relationship, we propose that people base their commitment to a relationship more on their expected future satisfaction with the relationship than on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Six studies provided evidence for these ideas. Study 1 demonstrated that expected satisfaction is shaped by not only current satisfaction but also several unique indicators of the likelihood of future satisfaction, including anticipated life events, plans to improve the relationship, and individual differences. Then, using a combination of cross-sectional, experimental, and longitudinal methods, Studies 2–6 demonstrated that (a) expected satisfaction was a stronger predictor of relationship commitment, maintenance behaviors, and/or divorce than was current satisfaction and (b) expected satisfaction mediated the association between current satisfaction and these outcomes. These findings highlight not only the need to incorporate expected satisfaction into extent perspectives on commitment, but also the importance of expectations for decision-making processes more broadly. PMID:28368196

Hip Preservation Surgery Expectations Survey: A New Method to Measure Patients' Preoperative Expectations.

PubMed

Mancuso, Carol A; Wentzel, Catherine H; Ghomrawi, Hassan M K; Kelly, Bryan T

2017-05-01

To develop a patient-derived expectations survey for hip preservation surgery. Patients were eligible if they were undergoing primary hip surgery and were recruited in person or by telephone. The survey was developed in 3 phases. During phase 1, 64 patients were interviewed preoperatively and asked open-ended questions about their expectations of surgery; a draft survey was assembled by categorizing responses. During phase 2, the survey was administered twice to another group of 50 patients preoperatively to assess test-retest reliability and concordance was measured with weighted kappa values and intraclass correlations. All patients also completed valid standard hip surveys electronically. During phase 3, final items were selected, factor analysis was performed, and a scoring system was developed. In phase 1, 509 expectations were volunteered from which 21 distinct categories were discerned and became the items for the draft survey. In phase 2, the draft survey was completed twice, 4 days apart. In phase 3, all 21 items were retained for the final survey addressing pain, mobility, sports, resumption of active lifestyles, future function, and psychological well-being. An overall score is calculated from the number of items expected and the amount of improvement expected, and ranges from 0 to 100; higher is more expectations. For phase 2 patients, mean scores for both administrations were 82, Cronbach alpha coefficients were 0.88 and 0.91, and the intraclass correlation was 0.92. A higher score (i.e., greater expectations) was associated with worse hip condition measured by standard hip surveys (P ≤ .05). We developed a patient-derived survey that is valid, reliable, and addresses a spectrum of expectations. The survey generates an overall score that is easy to calculate and interpret and offers a practical and comprehensive way to record patients' preoperative expectations. Level II, prognostic study, prospective sample. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032.

PubMed

Yun, Jae-Won; Son, Mia

2016-08-01

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer's disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies.

The Dynamics of Crime and Punishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausken, Kjell; Moxnes, John F.

This article analyzes crime development which is one of the largest threats in today's world, frequently referred to as the war on crime. The criminal commits crimes in his free time (when not in jail) according to a non-stationary Poisson process which accounts for fluctuations. Expected values and variances for crime development are determined. The deterrent effect of imprisonment follows from the amount of time in imprisonment. Each criminal maximizes expected utility defined as expected benefit (from crime) minus expected cost (imprisonment). A first-order differential equation of the criminal's utility-maximizing response to the given punishment policy is then developed. The analysis shows that if imprisonment is absent, criminal activity grows substantially. All else being equal, any equilibrium is unstable (labile), implying growth of criminal activity, unless imprisonment increases sufficiently as a function of criminal activity. This dynamic approach or perspective is quite interesting and has to our knowledge not been presented earlier. The empirical data material for crime intensity and imprisonment for Norway, England and Wales, and the US supports the model. Future crime development is shown to depend strongly on the societally chosen imprisonment policy. The model is intended as a valuable tool for policy makers who can envision arbitrarily sophisticated imprisonment functions and foresee the impact they have on crime development.

APSA - A new generation of photovoltaic solar arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, P. M.; Kurland, R. M.

1989-01-01

This paper provides details on the Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) wing design, fabrication, and testing. The impact of array size change on performance and mechanical characteristics is discussed. Projections for future performance enhancements that may be expected through the use of advanced solar cells presently under development are examined.

SUSTAINABLE BUILDING DESIGN FOR A SCHOOL – COMMUNITY CENTER IN RURAL NIGERIA

EPA Science Inventory

We expect to find adequate information that will aid in designing a rainwater collection, protection, and irrigation system appropriate for the future school construction. The final design of the school building will develop in a manner that will allow villagers to maintain an...

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION INFORMATION SYSTEM. FINAL REPORT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

ZWICKEL, I.; AND OTHERS

STATE- AND FEDERAL-LEVEL DESIGN SPECIFICATIONS WERE DEVELOPED FOR A SYSTEM CAPABLE OF COLLECTING AND REDUCING NATIONWIDE STATISTICAL DATA ON VOCATIONAL EDUCATION. THESE SPECIFICATIONS WERE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADOPTION BY ALL STATES OF AN INFORMATION REPORTING SYSTEM THAT WOULD MEET BOTH PRESENT AND FUTURE FEDERAL REPORTING…

Current status and expected developments in the area of satellite communications in the Latin American and Caribbean region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayala, S.

1986-01-01

The present capabilities of various Latin American countries in the area of satellite communications are discussed. Their current needs in this area are covered and how these needs are now being met, as well as prospects for future advancements.

Foundations for the Future: The Socio-Emotional Development of Gifted, Adolescent Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Callahan, Carolyn M.; And Others

1994-01-01

This study of five gifted female adolescents examined their male-female relationships, independence, perceptions of ability and expectations for success, overreliance on social manipulation, motivation, ethic of caring, superwoman syndrome, and familial influences. The study found positive examples of the use of problem-solving strategies; it also…

Future development of animal welfare science and use of new technologies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The expected human population growth to 9 billion people by 2050 will impact all animals with which we share this planet. We will see more farm animals, greater companion animal ownership, increasing feral populations, increased use of laboratory animals and threatened wildlife species diversity, im...

Foreign Language Needs: Theory and Empirical Evidence in Czechoslovakia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prucha, Jan

Foreign language (FL) needs is a new interdisciplinary area of research developing between applied linguistics, sociolinguistics, and educational planning and evaluation. FL needs consist of the demands, wishes, and expectations of the whole society, its groups and individuals, reflecting the relationship of their contemporary and future existence…

24 CFR 4.38 - Administrative remedies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Section 4.38 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban.... In so doing, the Secretary shall consider the factors listed at § 4.36(d), as well as any history of prior violations in any HUD program, the benefits received or expected, deterrence of future violations...

24 CFR 4.38 - Administrative remedies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Section 4.38 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban.... In so doing, the Secretary shall consider the factors listed at § 4.36(d), as well as any history of prior violations in any HUD program, the benefits received or expected, deterrence of future violations...

24 CFR 4.38 - Administrative remedies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Section 4.38 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban.... In so doing, the Secretary shall consider the factors listed at § 4.36(d), as well as any history of prior violations in any HUD program, the benefits received or expected, deterrence of future violations...

24 CFR 4.38 - Administrative remedies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Section 4.38 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban.... In so doing, the Secretary shall consider the factors listed at § 4.36(d), as well as any history of prior violations in any HUD program, the benefits received or expected, deterrence of future violations...

24 CFR 4.38 - Administrative remedies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Section 4.38 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban.... In so doing, the Secretary shall consider the factors listed at § 4.36(d), as well as any history of prior violations in any HUD program, the benefits received or expected, deterrence of future violations...

Powder River outlook stays healthy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stremel, K.

1984-08-01

Well drilling activity in Wyoming's Powder River Basin is discussed. Operators are taking advantage of favorable economic advantages to tap the area's multiple pay potential and challenge its high success rate reputation. A significant amount of exploration and development can be expected in the future due to the recent discovery of high-flowing wells.

Undergraduate Economics Journals: Learning by Doing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leekley, Robert M.; Davis-Kahl, Stephanie; Seeborg, Michael C.

2013-01-01

Although there are currently only a few undergraduate journals in economics, we expect their numbers to increase substantially in the future because of several developments: (1) research and writing activity is increasing in economics programs, (2) online publication is now more feasible and cost efficient than ever, and (3) students are…

Computer Yearbook 72.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1972

Recent and expected developments in the computer industry are discussed in this 628-page yearbook, successor to "The Punched Card Annual." The first section of the report is an overview of current computer hardware and software and includes articles about future applications of mainframes, an analysis of the software industry, and a summary of the…

Recycling of Advanced Batteries for Electric Vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JUNGST,RUDOLPH G.

1999-10-06

The pace of development and fielding of electric vehicles is briefly described and the principal advanced battery chemistries expected to be used in the EV application are identified as Ni/MH in the near term and Li-ion/Li-polymer in the intermediate to long term. The status of recycling process development is reviewed for each of the two chemistries and future research needs are discussed.

The TWINS Science Data System after the launch of TWINS 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, J.; Valek, P.; Skoug, R.; Delapp, D.; Redfern, J.; Carruth, B.; McComas, D.

2007-05-01

The Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers (TWINS) 1 satellite is in orbit and science data are expected to commence in the near future. TWINS-1 comprises half of the TWINS stereoscopic neutral atom imaging system that will advance our knowledge of the Earth's ring current. To support the expected data return, we have developed a Science Data System (SDS) for the TWINS mission. The TWINS SDS is an IDL- and Java- driven data interface that operates primarily via a web browser, and has as its spine an SQL-queryable database. Through this interface, TWINS science data will be provided to the TWINS team, the space science community, and the public. In this paper we present the current and future capabilities of the TWINS SDS, as well as how the SDS fits into virtual observatory infrastructure.

The training and professional expectations of medical students in Angola, Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the professional expectations of medical students during the 2007-2008 academic year at the public medical schools of Angola, Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique, and to identify their social and geographical origins, their professional expectations and difficulties relating to their education and professional future. Methods Data were collected through a standardised questionnaire applied to all medical students registered during the 2007-2008 academic year. Results Students decide to study medicine at an early age. Relatives and friends seem to have an especially important influence in encouraging, reinforcing and promoting the desire to be a doctor. The degree of feminization of the student population differs among the different countries. Although most medical students are from outside the capital cities, expectations of getting into medical school are already associated with migration from the periphery to the capital city, even before entering medical education. Academic performance is poor. This seems to be related to difficulties in accessing materials, finances and insufficient high school preparation. Medical students recognize the public sector demand but their expectations are to combine public sector practice with private work, in order to improve their earnings. Salary expectations of students vary between the three countries. Approximately 75% want to train as hospital specialists and to follow a hospital-based career. A significant proportion is unsure about their future area of specialization, which for many students is equated with migration to study abroad. Conclusions Medical education is an important national investment, but the returns obtained are not as efficient as expected. Investments in high-school preparation, tutoring, and infrastructure are likely to have a significant impact on the success rate of medical schools. Special attention should be given to the socialization of students and the role model status of their teachers. In countries with scarce medical resources, the hospital orientation of students' expectations is understandable, although it should be associated with the development of skills to coordinate hospital work with the network of peripheral facilities. Developing a local postgraduate training capacity for doctors might be an important strategy to help retain medical doctors in the home country. PMID:21473778

Symbolic Processing Combined with Model-Based Reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark

2009-01-01

A computer program for the detection of present and prediction of future discrete states of a complex, real-time engineering system utilizes a combination of symbolic processing and numerical model-based reasoning. One of the biggest weaknesses of a purely symbolic approach is that it enables prediction of only future discrete states while missing all unmodeled states or leading to incorrect identification of an unmodeled state as a modeled one. A purely numerical approach is based on a combination of statistical methods and mathematical models of the applicable physics and necessitates development of a complete model to the level of fidelity required for prediction. In addition, a purely numerical approach does not afford the ability to qualify its results without some form of symbolic processing. The present software implements numerical algorithms to detect unmodeled events and symbolic algorithms to predict expected behavior, correlate the expected behavior with the unmodeled events, and interpret the results in order to predict future discrete states. The approach embodied in this software differs from that of the BEAM methodology (aspects of which have been discussed in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles), which provides for prediction of future measurements in the continuous-data domain.

Patients' Future Expectations for Diabetes and Hypertension Treatments: "Through the Diet… I Think This is Going to Go Away."

PubMed

Fairchild, Paige C; Nathan, Aviva G; Quinn, Michael; Huang, Elbert S; Laiteerapong, Neda

2017-01-01

Diabetes and hypertension are chronic conditions for which over 90 % of patients require medication regimens that must be intensified over time. However, delays in intensification are common, and may be partially due to unrealistic patient expectations. To explore whether patient expectations regarding their diabetes and hypertension are congruent with the natural history of these conditions. Qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews. Sixty adults from an urban academic primary care clinic taking oral medications for both diabetes (duration <10 years) and hypertension (any duration) MAIN MEASURES: (1) Expectations for their a) current diabetes and hypertension medications, b) need for additional medications, c) likelihood of cure (not requiring medications); (2) preferences for receiving information on expected duration of treatments KEY RESULTS: The average patient age was 60 years, and 65 % were women. Nearly half (48 %) of participants expected to discontinue current diabetes medications in 6 years or less, whereas only one-fifth (22 %) expected to take medications for life. For blood pressure medications, one-third (37 %) expected to stop medicines in 6 years or less, and one-third expected to take medicines for life. The vast majority did not expect that they would need additional medications in the future (oral diabetes medications: 85 %; insulin: 87 %; hypertension medications: 93 %). A majority expected that their diabetes (65 %) and hypertension (58 %) would be cured. Most participants believed that intensifying lifestyle changes would allow them to discontinue medications, avoid additional medications, or cure their diabetes and hypertension. Nearly all participants (97 %) wanted to hear information on the expected duration of their diabetes and hypertension treatments from their healthcare provider. Providers should educate patients on the natural history of diabetes and hypertension in order to manage patient expectations for current and future medications. Future research should assess whether education can increase the adoption of and adherence to medications, without diminishing enthusiasm for lifestyle changes.

Why do we find ourselves around a yellow star instead of a red star?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haqq-Misra, Jacob; Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar; Wolf, Eric T.

2018-01-01

M-dwarf stars are more abundant than G-dwarf stars, so our position as observers on a planet orbiting a G-dwarf raises questions about the suitability of other stellar types for supporting life. If we consider ourselves as typical, in the anthropic sense that our environment is probably a typical one for conscious observers, then we are led to the conclusion that planets orbiting in the habitable zone of G-dwarf stars should be the best place for conscious life to develop. But such a conclusion neglects the possibility that K-dwarfs or M-dwarfs could provide more numerous sites for life to develop, both now and in the future. In this paper we analyse this problem through Bayesian inference to demonstrate that our occurrence around a G-dwarf might be a slight statistical anomaly, but only the sort of chance event that we expect to occur regularly. Even if M-dwarfs provide more numerous habitable planets today and in the future, we still expect mid G- to early K-dwarfs stars to be the most likely place for observers like ourselves. This suggests that observers with similar cognitive capabilities as us are most likely to be found at the present time and place, rather than in the future or around much smaller stars.

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy and multiple daily insulin injections in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a comparative overview and future horizons.

PubMed

Thabit, Hood; Hovorka, Roman

2016-01-01

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy is currently accepted as a treatment strategy for type 1 diabetes. Transition from multiple daily injection therapy (MDI; including basal-bolus regimens) to CSII is based on expectations of better metabolic control and fewer hypoglycaemic events. Evidence to date has not been always conclusive. Evidence for CSII and MDI in terms of glycaemic control, hypoglycaemia and psychosocial outcomes is reviewed in the adult and paediatric population with type 1 diabetes. Findings from studies on threshold-based insulin pump suspension and predictive low glucose management (PLGM) are outlined. Limitations of current CSII application and future technological developments are discussed. Glycaemic control and quality of life (QOL) may be improved by CSII compared to MDI depending on baseline HbA1c and hypoglycaemia rates. Future studies are expected to provide evidence on clinical and cost effectiveness in those who will benefit the most. Training, structured education and support are important to benefit from CSII. Novel technological approaches linking continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and CSII may help mitigate against frequent hypoglycaemia in those at risk. Development of glucose-responsive automated closed-loop insulin delivery systems may reduce the burden of disease management and improve outcomes in type 1 diabetes.

Potential benefits from a successful solar thermal program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terasawa, K. L.; Gates, W. R.

1982-01-01

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs.

Expectations from different perspectives on future work outcome of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities.

PubMed

Holwerda, Anja; Brouwer, Sandra; de Boer, Michiel R; Groothoff, Johan W; van der Klink, Jac J L

2015-03-01

Expectations strongly influence future employment outcomes and social networks seem to mediate employment success of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities. The aim of this study is to examine the expectations of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities from special needs education, their parents and their school teachers regarding future work and the extent to which these expectations predict work outcome. Data on 341 young adults with intellectual or developmental disabilities, coming from special needs education, aged 17-20 years, and with an ability to work according to the Social Security Institute were examined. The school teacher's expectation was the only perspective that significantly predicted entering competitive employment, with a complementary effect of the expectation of parents and a small additional effect of the expectation of the young adult. Expectations of school teachers and parents are valuable in predicting work outcome. Therefore, it is important for professionals working with the young adult in the transition from school to work to incorporate the knowledge of school teachers and parents regarding the abilities of the young adult to enter competitive employment as a valuable source of information.

Anxiety-Linked Expectancy Bias across the Adult Lifespan

PubMed Central

Steinman, Shari A.; Smyth, Frederick L.; Bucks, Romola S.; MacLeod, Colin; Teachman, Bethany A.

2012-01-01

Anxiety is characterized by a negative expectancy bias, such that anxious individuals report negatively distorted expectations about the future. Contrary to anxiety, aging is characterized by a positivity effect, such that aging is associated with a tendency to attend to and remember positive information, relative to negative information. The current study integrates these literatures to examine anxiety- and age-linked biases when thinking about the future. Participants (N=1109) completed a procedure that involved reading valenced scenarios (positive, negative, or ambiguous) and then rating the likelihood of future valenced events occurring. Results suggest that aging and anxiety have independent and opposing effects. Heightened anxiety was associated with a reduced expectancy for positive events, regardless of the scenarios’ current emotional valence, whereas increased age was associated with an inflated expectancy for positive events, which was strongest when individuals were processing socially-relevant or negative scenarios. PMID:22861128

Positron emission tomography imaging as a key enabling technology in drug development.

PubMed

McCarthy, T J

2007-01-01

The use of positron emission tomography (PET) in drug development has become more common in the pharmaceutical industry in recent years. One of the biggest challenges to gaining acceptance of this technology is for project teams to understand when to use PET. This chapter reviews the usage of PET in drug development in the context of target, mechanism and efficacy biomarkers. Examples are drawn from a number of therapeutic areas, but we also show that the relative penetration of this technology beyond CNS and oncology applications has been relatively small. However, with the increasing availability of PET and development of novel radiotracers it is expected that the utilization will be much broader in future years, with the additional expectation that the use of PET as an efficacy biomarker will also become more evident.

Direct Operational Field Test Evaluation, Simulation And Modeling

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-08-01

THE PURPOSE OF THE SIMULATION EVALUATION IS TO ASSESS THE EXPECTED FUTURE IMPACTS OF THE DIRECT TECHNOLOGIES UNDER SCENARIOS OF FULL DEPLOYMENT. THIS PROVIDED SOME INDICATION OF THE LEVEL OF BENEFITS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DIRECT IN THE FUTURE. BE...

Mental health treatment outcome expectancies in Burundi.

PubMed

Irankunda, Pacifique; Heatherington, Laurie

2017-02-01

Best practices in global mental health stress the importance of understanding local values and beliefs. Research demonstrates that expectancies about the effectiveness of a given treatment significantly predicts outcome, beyond the treatment effect itself. To help inform the development of mental health interventions in Burundi, we studied expectancies about the effectiveness of four treatments: spiritual healing, traditional healing, medication, and selected evidence-based psychosocial treatments widely used in the US. Treatment expectancies were assessed for each of three key syndromes identified by previous research: akabonge (a set of depression-like symptoms), guhahamuka (a set of trauma-related symptoms), and ibisigo (a set of psychosis-like symptoms) . In individual interviews or written surveys in French or Kirundi with patients ( N = 198) awaiting treatment at the clinic, we described each disorder and the treatments in everyday language, asking standard efficacy expectations questions about each ("Would it work?" "Why or why not?"). Findings indicated uniformly high expectancies about the efficacy of spiritual treatment, relatively high expectancies for western evidence-based treatments (especially cognitive behavior therapy [CBT] for depression-like symptoms), lower expectancies for medicine, and especially low expectancies for traditional healing (except for traditional healing for psychosis-like symptoms). There were significant effects of gender but not of education level. Qualitative analyses of explanations provide insight into the basis of people's beliefs, their explanations about why a given treatment would or would not work varied by type of disorder, and reflected beliefs about underlying causes. Implications for program development and future research are discussed.

Higher Resolution for Water Resources Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumenil-Gates, L.

2009-12-01

The Earth system science community is providing an increasing range of science results for the benefit of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. In addressing questions such as reducing poverty and hunger, achieving sustainable global development, or by defining adaptation strategies for climate change, one of the key issues will be the quantitative description and understanding of the global water cycle, which will allow useful projections of available future water resources for several decades ahead. The quantities of global water cycle elements that we observe today - and deal with in hydrologic and atmospheric modeling - are already very different from the natural flows as human influence on the water cycle by storage, consumption and edifice has been going on for millennia, and climate change is expected to add more uncertainty. In this case Tony Blair’s comment that perhaps the most worrying problem is climate change does not cover the full story. We shall also have to quantify how the human demand for water resources and alterations of the various elements of the water cycle may proceed in the future: will there be enough of the precious water resource to sustain current and future demands by the various sectors involved? The topics that stakeholders and decision makers concerned with managing water resources are interested in cover a variety of human uses such as agriculture, energy production, ecological flow requirements to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services, or human cultural aspects, recreation and human well-being - all typically most relevant at the regional or local scales, this being quite different from the relatively large-scale that the IPCC assessment addresses. Halfway through the Millennium process, the knowledge base of the global water cycle is still limited. The sustainability of regional water resources is best assessed through a research program that combines high-resolution climate and hydrologic models for expected future scenarios (as in the IPCC ensembles) with appropriate observational data under current conditions in order to benchmark the models’ accuracy. Expected future changes in water availability could then be characterized and appropriate adaptation action designed in co-operation with the water use community. In situ observations of water cycle variables can also be used and developed together with remote sensing data from space to provide initial data for global seasonal or decadal forecasting and monitoring of global change in less well observed regions of the world.

The impact of molecular targets in cancer drug development: major hurdles and future strategies.

PubMed

Hebar, Alexandra; Valent, Peter; Selzer, Edgar

2013-01-01

The last decades were characterized by enormous technological advances resulting in a better understanding of disease pathologies and improvement of treatment strategies. The development of targeted drugs, whose beginning can be traced back to Paul Ehrlich's theory of the 'magic bullet' approximately 100 years ago, is today widely appraised as a promising strategy to combat benign, as well as malignant, diseases. Over 40 years after US President Nixon declared the 'war on cancer', treatment outcome, especially of solid tumors in the advanced stages of disease, still lies far behind expectations. In this perspective article, the authors discuss the recent development of targeted cancer drugs and identify major hurdles. The authors further highlight future strategies that might improve and accelerate the drug-development process.

The relationship between migration and development in the ESCAP region.

PubMed

Skeldon, R

1991-01-01

The relationship between migration and development in the ESCAP region including southeast and south Asian countries and the Pacific island of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Kiribati, Samoa, and the Solomon Islands is discussed in terms of mobility transition and origin and destination factors. The changing patterns of mobility in Asia are further delineated in the discussion of internal movements and international movement. Emigration in the smaller countries of the Pacific are treated separately. Future predictions are that the Asia Pacific region will experience continued fertility decline and stabilization of low rates over the next 20 years. The declines will result in slow labor force growth, and increased demand for labor in traditional core and neocore countries as defined and presented in table form by Friedman will be heightened. International movements are likely to increase in large urban areas within destination countries. Tokyo and Singapore are the principal cities in Asia. Tokyo by restrictive government policy has limited immigration, but future labor shortages of unskilled labor from southeast Asia and China are expected. Singapore is already dependent on foreign labor by 10%. Current labor shortages have led to the creation of a growth triangle between Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Other cities expected to emerge as primary cities in international regional complexes with spillover into the hinterlands include the Hong Kong, Guangzhou, and Macau triangle in the Pearl River delta, Taipei and Seoul, and possibly Kuala Lumpur. Internal migration is expected to increase in the capital cities of Bangkok, Manila,j and centers such as Shanghai, Beijing, and other large cities of southeast Asia. These cities will be linked through the flows of skilled international migrants, which began in the 1960s and is expected to become a future major flow. Recreational and resource niches will be left in much of the Pacific, the Himalayan Kingdoms, and mountainous regions of northern southeast Asia and western China. Flows will be regulated by national government policy. Difficult decisions will be made on the extent to which multinational corporations and banks are sanctioned or regulated, i.e., currently Hong Kong development is company directed within the law governing power, transport, housing, and land, while in Singapore development is government planned and directed.

Experimental evidence for adaptive personalities in a wild passerine bird

PubMed Central

Nicolaus, Marion; Tinbergen, Joost M.; Bouwman, Karen M.; Michler, Stephanie P. M.; Ubels, Richard; Both, Christiaan; Kempenaers, Bart; Dingemanse, Niels J.

2012-01-01

Individuals of the same species differ consistently in risky actions. Such ‘animal personality’ variation is intriguing because behavioural flexibility is often assumed to be the norm. Recent theory predicts that between-individual differences in propensity to take risks should evolve if individuals differ in future fitness expectations: individuals with high long-term fitness expectations (i.e. that have much to lose) should behave consistently more cautious than individuals with lower expectations. Consequently, any manipulation of future fitness expectations should result in within-individual changes in risky behaviour in the direction predicted by this adaptive theory. We tested this prediction and confirmed experimentally that individuals indeed adjust their ‘exploration behaviour’, a proxy for risk-taking behaviour, to their future fitness expectations. We show for wild great tits (Parus major) that individuals with experimentally decreased survival probability become faster explorers (i.e. increase risk-taking behaviour) compared to individuals with increased survival probability. We also show, using quantitative genetics approaches, that non-genetic effects (i.e. permanent environment effects) underpin adaptive personality variation in this species. This study thereby confirms a key prediction of adaptive personality theory based on life-history trade-offs, and implies that selection may indeed favour the evolution of personalities in situations where individuals differ in future fitness expectations. PMID:23097506

The Development of Self-Regulated Learning during the Pre-Clinical Stage of Medical School: A Comparison between a Lecture-Based and a Problem-Based Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucieer, Susanna M.; van der Geest, Jos N.; Elói-Santos, Silvana M.; de Faria, Rosa M. Dellbone; Jonker, Laura; Visscher, Chris; Rikers, Remy M. J. P.; Themmen, Axel P. N.

2016-01-01

Society expects physicians to always improve their competencies and to be up to date with developments in their field. Therefore, an important aim of medical schools is to educate future medical doctors to become self-regulated, lifelong learners. However, it is unclear if medical students become better self-regulated learners during the…

Aerial Flyover of New Research Facilities

ScienceCinema

None

2018-02-14

The Idaho National Laboratory is focused on continued development of its primary campus areas, including our Idaho Falls campus, to enable the INL to meet DOE expectations as the nations lead nuclear energy laboratory. This video identifies some of the existing Idaho Falls campus facilities and highlights planned and potential future development to support campus growth. You can learn more about INL's energy research projects at http://www.facebook.com/idahonationallaboratory.

Financial expectations of first-year veterinary students.

PubMed

Lim, Christine C; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Root Kustritz, Margaret V; Molgaard, Laura K; Lee, David

2015-07-15

To assess student awareness of the financial costs of pursuing a veterinary education, to determine student expectations for financial returns of a veterinary career, and to identify associations between student debt and factors such as future career plans or personality type. Survey. First-year veterinary students at the University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine. In 2013, prior to the first day of class, all incoming first-year students received an email invitation to complete an online survey. The survey contained questions about demographics, current financial situation, current debt, expected debt at graduation, expected annual income following graduation, intent to pursue specialty training, and Myers-Briggs personality type. 72 of 102 (71%) students completed the survey; 65 respondents answered all relevant questions and provided usable data. Student responses for expected debt at graduation were comparable to national averages for veterinary college graduates; responses for expected annual income following graduation were lower than averages for University of Minnesota veterinary college graduates and national averages. However, students predicted even lower annual income if they did not attend veterinary college. Expected debt and expected annual income were not correlated with factors such as personality type or future career plans. Results indicated that first-year veterinary students were aware of the financial costs of their veterinary education and had realistic expectations for future salaries. For typical veterinary students, attending veterinary college appeared to be financially worthwhile, given lower expected earnings otherwise.

Self-regulation of goal setting: turning free fantasies about the future into binding goals.

PubMed

Oettingen, G; Pak, H; Schnetter, K

2001-05-01

Fantasy realization theory states that when people contrast their fantasies about a desired future with reflections on present reality, a necessity to act is induced that leads to the activation and use of relevant expectations. Strong goal commitment arises in light of favorable expectations, and weak goal commitment arises in light of unfavorable expectations. To the contrary, when people only fantasize about a desired future or only reflect on present reality, expectancy-independent moderate goal commitment emerges. Four experiments pertaining to various life domains supported these hypotheses. Strength of goal commitment was assessed in cognitive (e.g., making plans), affective (e.g., felt attachment), and behavioral terms (e.g., effort expenditure, quality of performance). Implications for theories on goal setting and goal striving are discussed.

Evaluating the Environmental Impacts of a Nano-Enhanced Field Emission Display Using Life Cycle Assessment: A Screening-Level Study

EPA Science Inventory

Carbon nanotube (CNT) field emission displays (FEDs) are currently in the product development stage and are expected to be commercialized in the near future because they offer image quality and viewing angles comparable to a cathode ray tube (CRT) while using a thinner structure,...

The Changed/Changing Educational Scene: The State of the Art.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bunke, Clinton R.; And Others

A special attempt was made to organize this document in terms of the requirements of its readership (members of the Commission on Children, White House Conference, 1980). To this end, the first section, entitled "Gaining Perspective," provides an overview of developments, expectations, issues, dynamics, culture shock, and future trends in…

Asian Pentecostalism: A Religion Whose Only Limit Is the Sky

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ma, Wonsuk

2004-01-01

The study surveys the current growth of Pentecostal Christianity, as defined broadly, in Asia, particularly in comparison with Latin America and Africa, predicting that the future growth is expected to be exponential. In a brief historical survey, the continent is divided into four categories depending on the beginning and development of…

Individual Training, Performance Improvement, and the Future for Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaufman, Roger

2015-01-01

Human competence is a vital element for any organization that expects to survive and then thrive. Developing individual performance ability is necessary but not sufficient because trained people alone will not make an organization successful. We must determine what people should deliver and why it should be delivered in order to add measurable…

Shedding Light on Students' Technology Preferences: Implications for Academic Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirriahi, Negin; Alonzo, Dennis

2015-01-01

This study built on previous research in 2010 to determine changes to students' current use of and expectations for future integration of technologies in their learning experience. The findings reveal a continued trend of conservative technology use amongst students but with a growing demand for more integration of technologies for assessment and…

Visionary Expectations and Novice Designers--Prototyping in Design Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaeffer, Jennie Andersson; Palmgren, Marianne

2017-01-01

In information design education, we strive to find methods that provide students with opportunities to explore different ways of learning and designing. We seek to support development of contextual competences that will be helpful in navigating an unknown future of design in society. A challenge in today's design education is to formulate and use…

DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-TIERED INSECT RESISTANCE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM FOR GENETICALLY MODIFIED CORN HYBRIDS EXPRESSING THE PLANT INCORPORATED PROTECTANT, BACILLUS THURINGIENSIS

EPA Science Inventory

A significant increase in genetically modified corn planting driven by biofuel demand is expected for the 2007 growing season with future planted acreages approaching 80% of total corn plantings anticipated by 2009. As demand increases, incidence of farmer non-compliance with ma...

Gender Differences in How Retirees Perceive Factors Influencing Unretirement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Armstrong-Stassen, Marjorie; Staats, Sara

2012-01-01

Returning to paid employment after retirement is occurring in many developed countries and can be expected to increase in the future. This study compared how women (n = 202) and men (n = 347) who had retired from a managerial or professional career occupation perceived factors associated with unretirement. Retired professional women perceived…

Sexual Orientation and Music Education: Continuing a Tradition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergonzi, Louis

2009-01-01

Society expects those in the music education profession to contribute to societal development by affirming and educating future generations. Historically, music educators have been fairly willing to examine and transform what they do in order to meet the changing needs of the students who walk into their classrooms. Commercial interests as well as…

On the Emergence of New Computer Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asaolu, Olumuyiwa Sunday

2006-01-01

This work presents a review of the development and application of computers. It traces the highlights of emergent computing technologies shaping our world. Recent trends in hardware and software deployment are chronicled as well as their impact on various segments of the society. The expectations for the future are also discussed along with…

E-Learning versus Blended Learning in Accounting Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Megeid, Nevine Sobhy Abdel

2014-01-01

E-learning provides opportunities for developing countries like Egypt that expect a promising future in its educational process from the use of modern information and communication technologies. The aim of this research is to investigate and identify factors that influence the use of e-learning in accounting education and to assess students'…

Enrollment Projections for Queensborough Community College: 1986-1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Edward G.

Enrollment projections for Queensborough Community College (QCC) were developed using the cohort survival method to assist the college in more effectively planning for future academic and budgetary needs. In the face of a falling national population of young people in the 16 to 25 age bracket, demographic factors at work in Queens are expected to…

Intellectual property issues of immune checkpoint inhibitors

PubMed Central

Storz, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Immune checkpoint inhibitors are drugs that interfere with tumor escape responses. Some members of this class are already approved, and expected to be blockbusters in the future. Many companies have developed patent activities in this field. This article focuses on the patent landscape, and discusses key players and cases related to immune checkpoint inhibitors. PMID:26466763

Life in the Universe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowman, Paul D., Jr.

2003-01-01

The belief that life exists in the universe is an optimism shared by many. With several manned missions expected to be carried out in the future, the possibility of discovering life in outer space will revolutionize the field of astrobiology. In this article, the author presents a summary of recent developments and discoveries made in the search…

Use of participatory modeling workshops in a water-stressed basin of northern Mexico to assess sustainable water resources management and conduct community outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivoni, E. R.; Mayer, A. S.; Halvorsen, K. E.; Robles-Morua, A.; Kossak, D.

2016-12-01

A series of iterative participatory modeling workshops were held in Sonora, México with the goal of developing water resources management strategies in a water-stressed basin subject to hydro-climatic variability and change. A model of the water resources system, consisting of watershed hydrology, water resources infrastructure, and groundwater models, was developed deliberatively in the workshops, along with scenarios of future climate and development. Participants used the final version of the water resources systems model to select from supply-side and demand-side water resources management strategies. The performance of the strategies was based on the reliability of meeting current and future demands at a daily time scale over a year's period. Pre- and post-workshop surveys were developed and administered. The survey questions focused on evaluation of participants' modeling capacity and the utility and accuracy of the models. The selected water resources strategies and the associated, expected reliability varied widely among participants. Most participants could be clustered into three groups with roughly equal numbers of participants that varied in terms of reliance on expanding infrastructure vs. demand modification; expectations of reliability; and perceptions of social, environmental, and economic impacts. The wide range of strategies chosen and associated reliabilities indicate that there is a substantial degree of uncertainty in how future water resources decisions could be made in the region. The pre- and post-survey results indicate that participants believed their modeling abilities increased and beliefs in the utility of models increased as a result of the workshops

The future of Astrometry in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallenari, Antonella

2018-04-01

This contribution focuses on the importance of astrometry and on its future developments. Over the centuries astrometry has greatly contributed to the advance of the knowledge of the Universe. Nowadays a major breakthrough is on the way due to astrometric sky surveys from space. ESA space missions Hipparcos first and then Gaia point out the outstanding contribution that space astrometry can provide to our knowledge in many fields of astrophysics, going from the Milky Way formation and evolution, to stellar astrophysics, extra-galactic astrophysics, and fundamental physics. We briefly outline the properties of Gaia first and second data release, and the accuracies expected end-of-mission. The next big advance in space astrometry would be either to improve the astrometric accuracy of one order of magnitude, or to move to a different wavelength domain. While both options have the potential to bring us in a new era of discovery, they have to face enormous issues. We summarize the future directions in space astrometry that are proposed or under investigation by the scientific community, their main challenges and the expected outcome.

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

The influence of children's pain memories on subsequent pain experience.

PubMed

Noel, Melanie; Chambers, Christine T; McGrath, Patrick J; Klein, Raymond M; Stewart, Sherry H

2012-08-01

Healthy children are often required to repeatedly undergo painful medical procedures (eg, immunizations). Although memory is often implicated in children's reactions to future pain, there is a dearth of research directly examining the relationship between the 2. The current study investigated the influence of children's memories for a novel pain stimulus on their subsequent pain experience. One hundred ten healthy children (60 boys) between the ages of 8 and 12 years completed a laboratory pain task and provided pain ratings. Two weeks later, children provided pain ratings based on their memories as well as their expectancies about future pain. One month following the initial laboratory visit, children again completed the pain task and provided pain ratings. Results showed that children's memory of pain intensity was a better predictor of subsequent pain reporting than their actual initial reporting of pain intensity, and mediated the relationship between initial and subsequent pain reporting. Children who had negatively estimated pain memories developed expectations of greater pain prior to a subsequent pain experience and showed greater increases in pain ratings over time than children who had accurate or positively estimated pain memories. These findings highlight the influence of pain memories on healthy children's expectations of future pain and subsequent pain experiences and extend predictive models of subsequent pain reporting. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Survey report; health needs of the 21st century.

PubMed

Raymond, S U

1989-01-01

Sustainability of development assistance programs depends greatly on the perceptions of priorities by recipient countries. A written survey was sent by the Catholic University of America's Institute for International Health and Development to 66 ministers of health in low-income and middle-income countries to assess their views of priority problems in health sector development. Response rate was 33%, coming from countries with highly diverse gross national products (GNPs), growth rates, mortality rates and life expectancies. Nevertheless, there was widespread agreement about priorities: 1) meeting costs of health care; 2) improving health care management and administration; and 3) extending communicable disease control. Communicable disease control and child health programs were more important to low-income countries than to middle-income countries. Costs, management and administration and the control of noncommunicable diseases were predicted to increase in importance. In demographics, urbanization, overall population growth and shift of workers from agriculture to industry and services were seen as the major problems of the past, and urbanization and the aging of populations accompanied by increasing life expectancies the major challenges of the future. Highest predicted training needs were for system managers and paramedical personnel. Government budgets, user fees and donor agencies were seen as the most important sources of past funding, with social security systems and fee-based payments increasing in importance in the future. The role of donor agencies would increase as would the need for more responsiveness. Future uncertainties include national economic growth, environmental problems, issues in ethics and changes in disease and technology.

Application of quantum master equation for long-term prognosis of asset-prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrennikova, Polina

2016-05-01

This study combines the disciplines of behavioral finance and an extension of econophysics, namely the concepts and mathematical structure of quantum physics. We apply the formalism of quantum theory to model the dynamics of some correlated financial assets, where the proposed model can be potentially applied for developing a long-term prognosis of asset price formation. At the informational level, the asset price states interact with each other by the means of a ;financial bath;. The latter is composed of agents' expectations about the future developments of asset prices on the finance market, as well as financially important information from mass-media, society, and politicians. One of the essential behavioral factors leading to the quantum-like dynamics of asset prices is the irrationality of agents' expectations operating on the finance market. These expectations lead to a deeper type of uncertainty concerning the future price dynamics of the assets, than given by a classical probability theory, e.g., in the framework of the classical financial mathematics, which is based on the theory of stochastic processes. The quantum dimension of the uncertainty in price dynamics is expressed in the form of the price-states superposition and entanglement between the prices of the different financial assets. In our model, the resolution of this deep quantum uncertainty is mathematically captured with the aid of the quantum master equation (its quantum Markov approximation). We illustrate our model of preparation of a future asset price prognosis by a numerical simulation, involving two correlated assets. Their returns interact more intensively, than understood by a classical statistical correlation. The model predictions can be extended to more complex models to obtain price configuration for multiple assets and portfolios.

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency.

PubMed

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-06-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-06-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat ( Triticum aestivum L .) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer’s disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies. PMID:27478326

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-02-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

PubMed

Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

2005-10-01

Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

Highly Stretchable and Transparent Electromagnetic Interference Shielding Film Based on Silver Nanowire Percolation Network for Wearable Electronics Applications.

PubMed

Jung, Jinwook; Lee, Habeom; Ha, Inho; Cho, Hyunmin; Kim, Kyun Kyu; Kwon, Jinhyeong; Won, Phillip; Hong, Sukjoon; Ko, Seung Hwan

2017-12-27

Future electronics are expected to develop into wearable forms, and an adequate stretchability is required for the forthcoming wearable electronics considering various motions occurring in human body. Along with stretchability, transparency can increase both the functionality and esthetic features in future wearable electronics. In this study, we demonstrate, for the first time, a highly stretchable and transparent electromagnetic interference shielding layer for wearable electronic applications with silver nanowire percolation network on elastic poly(dimethylsiloxane) substrate. The proposed stretchable and transparent electromagnetic interference shielding layer shows a high electromagnetic wave shielding effectiveness even under a high tensile strain condition. It is expected for the silver nanowire percolation network-based electromagnetic interference shielding layer to be beyond the conventional electromagnetic interference shielding materials and to broaden its application range to various fields that require optical transparency or nonplanar surface environment, such as biological system, human skin, and wearable electronics.

Analyzing whether countries are equally efficient at improving longevity for men and women.

PubMed

Barthold, Douglas; Nandi, Arijit; Mendoza Rodríguez, José M; Heymann, Jody

2014-11-01

We examined the efficiency of country-specific health care spending in improving life expectancies for men and women. We estimated efficiencies of health care spending for 27 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries during the period 1991 to 2007 using multivariable regression models, including country fixed-effects and controlling for time-varying levels of national social expenditures, economic development, and health behaviors. Findings indicated robust differences in health-spending efficiency. A 1% annual increase in health expenditures was associated with percent changes in life expectancy ranging from 0.020 in the United States (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.008, 0.032) to 0.121 in Germany (95% CI = 0.099, 0.143). Health-spending increases were associated with greater life expectancy improvements for men than for women in nearly every OECD country. This is the first study to our knowledge to estimate the effect of country-specific health expenditures on life expectancies of men and women. Future work understanding the determinants of these differences has the potential to improve the overall efficiency and equity of national health systems.

Development and Preliminary Validation of the Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire (DESV-Q): A Purpose-Specific Instrument for Rape-Perception Research.

PubMed

Starfelt, Louise Charlotte; Young, Ross McD; White, Katherine M; Palk, Gavan

2016-01-01

Alcohol expectancies likely play a role in people's perceptions of alcohol-involved sexual violence. However, no appropriate measure exists to examine this link comprehensively. The aim of this research was to develop an alcohol expectancy measure which captures young adults' beliefs about alcohol's role in sexual aggression and victimization. Two cross-sectional samples of young Australian adults (18-25 years) were recruited for scale development (Phase 1) and scale validation (Phase 2). In Phase 1, participants (N = 201; 38.3% males) completed an online survey with an initial pool of alcohol expectancy items stated in terms of three targets (self, men, women) to identify the scale's factor structure and most effective items. A revised alcohol expectancy scale was then administered online to 322 young adults (39.6% males) in Phase 2. To assess the predictive, convergent, and discriminant validity of the scale, participants also completed established measures of personality, social desirability, alcohol use, general and context-specific alcohol expectancies, and impulsiveness. Principal axis factoring (Phase 1) and confirmatory factor analysis (Phase 2) resulted in a target-equivalent five-factor structure for the final 66-item Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire (DESV-Q). The factors were labeled (1) Sexual Coercion, (2) Sexual Vulnerability, (3) Confidence, (4) Self-Centeredness, and (5) Negative Cognitive and Behavioral Changes. The measure demonstrated effective items, high internal consistency, and satisfactory predictive, convergent, and discriminant validity. The DESV-Q is a purpose-specific instrument that could be used in future research to elucidate people's attributions for alcohol-involved sexual aggression and victimization.

Technical Development Path for Gas Foil Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dellacorte, Christopher

2016-01-01

Foil gas bearings are in widespread commercial use in air cycle machines, turbocompressors and microturbine generators and are emerging in more challenging applications such as turbochargers, auxiliary power units and propulsion gas turbines. Though not well known, foil bearing technology is well over fifty years old. Recent technological developments indicate that their full potential has yet to be realized. This paper investigates the key technological developments that have characterized foil bearing advances. It is expected that a better understanding of foil gas bearing development path will aid in future development and progress towards more advanced applications.

Filarial parasites develop faster and reproduce earlier in response to host immune effectors that determine filarial life expectancy.

PubMed

Babayan, Simon A; Read, Andrew F; Lawrence, Rachel A; Bain, Odile; Allen, Judith E

2010-10-19

Humans and other mammals mount vigorous immune assaults against helminth parasites, yet there are intriguing reports that the immune response can enhance rather than impair parasite development. It has been hypothesized that helminths, like many free-living organisms, should optimize their development and reproduction in response to cues predicting future life expectancy. However, immune-dependent development by helminth parasites has so far eluded such evolutionary explanation. By manipulating various arms of the immune response of experimental hosts, we show that filarial nematodes, the parasites responsible for debilitating diseases in humans like river blindness and elephantiasis, accelerate their development in response to the IL-5 driven eosinophilia they encounter when infecting a host. Consequently they produce microfilariae, their transmission stages, earlier and in greater numbers. Eosinophilia is a primary host determinant of filarial life expectancy, operating both at larval and at late adult stages in anatomically and temporally separate locations, and is implicated in vaccine-mediated protection. Filarial nematodes are therefore able to adjust their reproductive schedules in response to an environmental predictor of their probability of survival, as proposed by evolutionary theory, thereby mitigating the effects of the immune attack to which helminths are most susceptible. Enhancing protective immunity against filarial nematodes, for example through vaccination, may be less effective at reducing transmission than would be expected and may, at worst, lead to increased transmission and, hence, pathology.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Expectancy bias in anxious samples

PubMed Central

Cabeleira, Cindy M.; Steinman, Shari A.; Burgess, Melissa M.; Bucks, Romola S.; MacLeod, Colin; Melo, Wilson; Teachman, Bethany A.

2014-01-01

While it is well documented that anxious individuals have negative expectations about the future, it is unclear what cognitive processes give rise to this expectancy bias. Two studies are reported that use the Expectancy Task, which is designed to assess expectancy bias and illuminate its basis. This task presents individuals with valenced scenarios (Positive Valence, Negative Valence, or Conflicting Valence), and then evaluates their tendency to expect subsequent future positive relative to negative events. The Expectancy Task was used with low and high trait anxious (Study 1: N = 32) and anxiety sensitive (Study 2: N = 138) individuals. Results suggest that in the context of physical concerns, both high anxious samples display a less positive expectancy bias. In the context of social concerns, high trait anxious individuals display a negative expectancy bias only when negatively valenced information was previously presented. Overall, this suggests that anxious individuals display a less positive expectancy bias, and that the processes that give rise to this bias may vary by type of situation (e.g., social or physical) or anxiety difficulty. PMID:24798678

Differences by Sexual Orientation in Expectations About Future Long-Term Care Needs Among Adults 40 to 65 Years Old.

PubMed

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Gonzales, Gilbert; Shippee, Tetyana P

2015-11-01

We examined whether and how lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults between 40 and 65 years of age differ from heterosexual adults in long-term care (LTC) expectations. Our data were derived from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. We used ordered logistic regression to compare the odds of expected future use of LTC among LGB (n = 297) and heterosexual (n = 13 120) adults. We also used logistic regression models to assess the odds of expecting to use specific sources of care. All models controlled for key socioeconomic characteristics. Although LGB adults had greater expectations of needing LTC in the future than their heterosexual counterparts, that association was largely explained by sociodemographic and health differences. After control for these differentials, LGB adults were less likely to expect care from family and more likely to expect to use institutional care in old age. LGB adults may rely more heavily than heterosexual adults on formal systems of care. As the older population continues to diversify, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should work to ensure safety and culturally sensitive best practices for older LGB groups.

Differences by Sexual Orientation in Expectations About Future Long-Term Care Needs Among Adults 40 to 65 Years Old

PubMed Central

Gonzales, Gilbert; Shippee, Tetyana P.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether and how lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults between 40 and 65 years of age differ from heterosexual adults in long-term care (LTC) expectations. Methods. Our data were derived from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. We used ordered logistic regression to compare the odds of expected future use of LTC among LGB (n = 297) and heterosexual (n = 13 120) adults. We also used logistic regression models to assess the odds of expecting to use specific sources of care. All models controlled for key socioeconomic characteristics. Results. Although LGB adults had greater expectations of needing LTC in the future than their heterosexual counterparts, that association was largely explained by sociodemographic and health differences. After control for these differentials, LGB adults were less likely to expect care from family and more likely to expect to use institutional care in old age. Conclusions. LGB adults may rely more heavily than heterosexual adults on formal systems of care. As the older population continues to diversify, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should work to ensure safety and culturally sensitive best practices for older LGB groups. PMID:26378822

Overview of nanotechnology and its applicability to the Department of Defense

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Allison; Stevens, Rick; Thorson, Kevin; Whaley, Gregory J.

2005-08-01

Advances in a wide variety of nanotechnologies are expected to substantially benefit future military weapon systems. The technology development cycle for military platforms requires a given technology to reach a defined state of maturity before its use in a deployable system. Nanotechnologies such as quantum dots and carbon nanotubes, while showing great promise of performance benefits, are still considered too immature for immediate use. Defense contractors are in active research of applications of nanoscale engineered materials and devices and are beginning to engage nanotechnology suppliers for future military platforms.

Patients' expectations of medicines--a review and qualitative synthesis.

PubMed

Dohnhammar, Ulrica; Reeve, Joanne; Walley, Tom

2016-04-01

An increasing part of prescribing of medicines is done for the purpose of managing risk for disease and is motivated by clinical and economic benefit on a long-term, population level. This makes benefit from medicines less tangible for individuals. Sociology of pharmaceuticals includes personal and social perspectives in the study of how medicines are used. We use two characterizations of patients' expectations of medicines to start forming a description of how individuals conceptualize benefits from risk management medicines. We reviewed the literature on patients' expectations with a focus on the influences on expectations regarding medicines prescribed for long-term conditions. Searches in Medline and Scopus identified 20 studies for inclusion, describing qualitative aspects of beliefs, views, thoughts and expectations regarding medicines. A qualitative synthesis using a constant comparative thematic analysis identified four themes describing influences on expectations: a need to achieve a specific outcome; the development of experiences and evaluation over time; negative values such as dependency and social stigma; and personalized meaning of the necessity and usefulness of medicines. The findings in this synthesis resonate with previous research into expectations of medicines for prevention and treatment of different conditions. However, a gap in the knowledge regarding patients' conceptualization of future benefits with medicines is identified. The study highlights suggestions for further empirical work to develop a deeper understanding of the role of patients' expectations in prescribing for long-term risk management. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

CF-related diabetes: Containing the metabolic miscreant of cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Moheet, Amir; Moran, Antoinette

2017-11-01

Cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD) is associated with both an increase in morbidity and mortality in people with cystic fibrosis (CF). With increased screening and improved life expectancy of people with CF, the prevalence of CFRD is expected to rise further. The underlying pathophysiological mechanisms causing glucose intolerance and diabetes in patients with CF are not well understood but both functional and structural abnormalities in islet cells are likely to have key roles. Insulin therapy improves health outcomes in patients with CF. Future research is needed to better understand the mechanisms underlying the development of CFRD and to develop new screening and treatment strategies to minimize the detrimental impact of CFRD on health outcomes in people with CF. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Review article: Medical decision models of Helicobacter pylori therapy to prevent gastric cancer.

PubMed

Sonnenberg, A; Inadomi, J M

1998-02-01

The aim of the present article is to study the utility of Helicobacter pylori eradication programmes in decreasing the incidence of gastric cancer. Three types of decision models are employed to pursue this aim, i.e. decision tree, present value, and declining exponential approximation of life expectancy (DEALE). 1) A decision tree allows one to model the interaction of multiple variables in great detail and to calculate the marginal cost, as well as the marginal cost-benefit ratio, of a preventive strategy. The cost of gastric cancer, the efficacy of H. pylori therapy in preventing cancer, and the cumulative probability of developing gastric cancer exert the largest influence on the marginal cost of cancer prevention. The high cost of future gastric cancer and a high efficacy of therapy make screening for H. pylori and its eradication the preferred strategy. 2) The present value is an economic method to adjust future costs or benefits to their current value using a discount rate and the length of time between now and a given time point in the future. It accounts for the depreciation of money and all material values over time. During childhood, the present value of future gastric cancer is very low. Vaccination of children to prevent gastric cancer would need to be very inexpensive to be practicable. Cancer prevention becomes a feasible option, only if the time period between the preventive measures and the occurrence of gastric cancer can be made relatively short. 3) The DEALE provides a means to calculate the increase in life expectancy that would occur, if death from a particular disease became preventable. Life expectancy of the general population is hardly affected by gastric cancer. For life expectancy to increase appreciably by vaccination or antibiotic therapy directed against H. pylori infection, these interventions would need to be focused towards a sub-population with an a priori high risk for gastric cancer.

Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations toward BCIs and implications for future technology development

PubMed Central

Schicktanz, Silke; Amelung, Till; Rieger, Jochem W.

2015-01-01

Brain–computer–interfaces (BCIs) are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes toward the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes toward this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes toward motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. Our analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way. PMID:25964745

Development of 23 novel polymorphic EST-SSR markers for the endangered relict conifer Metasequoia glyptostroboides.

PubMed

Jin, Yuqing; Bi, Quanxin; Guan, Wenbin; Mao, Jian-Feng

2015-09-01

Metasequoia glyptostroboides is an endangered relict conifer species endemic to China. In this study, expressed sequence tag-simple sequence repeat (EST-SSR) markers were developed using transcriptome mining for future genetic and functional studies. We collected 97,565 unigene sequences generated by 454 pyrosequencing. A bioinformatics analysis identified 2087 unique and putative microsatellites, from which 96 novel microsatellite markers were developed. Fifty-three of the 96 primer sets successfully amplified clear fragments of the expected sizes; 23 of those loci were polymorphic. The number of alleles per locus ranged from two to eight, with an average of three, and the observed and expected heterozygosity values ranged from 0 to 1.0 and 0.117 to 0.813, respectively. These microsatellite loci will enrich the genetic resources to develop functional studies and conservation strategies for this endangered relict species.

Development of 23 novel polymorphic EST-SSR markers for the endangered relict conifer Metasequoia glyptostroboides1

PubMed Central

Jin, Yuqing; Bi, Quanxin; Guan, Wenbin; Mao, Jian-Feng

2015-01-01

Premise of the study: Metasequoia glyptostroboides is an endangered relict conifer species endemic to China. In this study, expressed sequence tag–simple sequence repeat (EST-SSR) markers were developed using transcriptome mining for future genetic and functional studies. Methods and Results: We collected 97,565 unigene sequences generated by 454 pyrosequencing. A bioinformatics analysis identified 2087 unique and putative microsatellites, from which 96 novel microsatellite markers were developed. Fifty-three of the 96 primer sets successfully amplified clear fragments of the expected sizes; 23 of those loci were polymorphic. The number of alleles per locus ranged from two to eight, with an average of three, and the observed and expected heterozygosity values ranged from 0 to 1.0 and 0.117 to 0.813, respectively. Conclusions: These microsatellite loci will enrich the genetic resources to develop functional studies and conservation strategies for this endangered relict species. PMID:26421250

A view toward future launch vehicles - A civil perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Darwin, Charles R.; Austin, Gene; Varnado, Lee; Eudy, Glenn

1989-01-01

Prospective NASA launch vehicle development efforts, which in addition to follow-on developments of the Space Shuttle encompass the Shuttle-C cargo version, various possible Advanced Launch System (ALS) configurations, and various Heavy Lift Launch System (HLLS) design options. Fully and partially reusable manned vehicle alternatives are also under consideration. In addition to improving on the current Space Shuttle's reliability and flexibility, ALS and HLLV development efforts are expected to concentrate on the reduction of operating costs for the given payload-launch capability.

The decisive future of inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David

2018-05-01

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements. This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging. We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity. We also modify the form of the expected utility, as previously introduced in the literature in different contexts, in order to partition each possible future into either the rejection of models at the level of the maximum likelihood or the decision between models using Bayesian model comparison. We then quantify the ability of future experiments to constrain the reheating temperature and the scalar running. Our approach allows us to discuss possible strategies for maximising information from future cosmological surveys. In particular, our conclusions suggest that, in the context of inflationary model selection, a decrease in the measurement uncertainty of the scalar spectral index would be more decisive than a decrease in the uncertainty in the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We have incorporated our approach into a publicly available python class, foxi,1 that can be readily applied to any survey optimisation problem.

Social cognitive mediators of parent-child sexual communication.

PubMed

Evans, W Douglas; Blitstein, Jonathan L; Davis, Kevin C

2011-07-01

To test a social cognitive behavior change model and identify mediators of the effects of the Parents Speak Up National Campaign (PSUNC) on parent-child sexual communication. Investigators used 5 waves of data from an online randomized controlled trial. Latent variables were developed based on item response theory and confirmatory factor analysis. Structural equation modeling was used to test mediation. Outcome expectations mediated effects of social norms and self-efficacy on sexual communication. Other hypothesized mediators were not confirmed. Interventions to promote parent-child sexual communication should target outcome expectations. Future research should investigate parents' health information seeking.

Shame and guilt and their relationship to positive expectations and anger expressiveness.

PubMed

Lutwak, N; Panish, J B; Ferrari, J R; Razzino, B E

2001-01-01

College students (174 females, 91 males) completed measures of shame, guilt, expectations for future success, and styles of anger expression. Significant gender differences were found in proneness for both shame and guilt, with young women exhibiting a greater propensity for shame and guilt than young men. For both females and males, however, shame-proneness was positively related to expressions of inward anger. Among males and females, guilt-proness was negatively related to outward anger, but positively related to anger control. For females, guilt-proness was also negatively related to expectations for future success. Multiple regression analyses indicated that for male and female late adolescents, the best positive predictor of shame-proneness was inward anger. Gender differences emerged in predicting guilt-proneness; greater anger control, lower outward anger, and lower expectations for future success significantly predicted this variable among females.

Test Expectation Enhances Memory Consolidation across Both Sleep and Wake

PubMed Central

Wamsley, Erin J.; Hamilton, Kelly; Graveline, Yvette; Manceor, Stephanie; Parr, Elaine

2016-01-01

Memory consolidation benefits from post-training sleep. However, recent studies suggest that sleep does not uniformly benefit all memory, but instead prioritizes information that is important to the individual. Here, we examined the effect of test expectation on memory consolidation across sleep and wakefulness. Following reports that information with strong “future relevance” is preferentially consolidated during sleep, we hypothesized that test expectation would enhance memory consolidation across a period of sleep, but not across wakefulness. To the contrary, we found that expectation of a future test enhanced memory for both spatial and motor learning, but that this effect was equivalent across both wake and sleep retention intervals. These observations differ from those of least two prior studies, and fail to support the hypothesis that the “future relevance” of learned material moderates its consolidation selectively during sleep. PMID:27760193

A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

PubMed

Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

2014-10-13

Health workforce planning is especially important in a setting of political, social, and economic uncertainty. Portuguese community pharmacists are experiencing such conditions as well as increasing patient empowerment, shortage of primary care physicians, and primary health care reforms. This study aims to design three future scenarios for Portuguese community pharmacists, recognizing the changing environment as an opportunity to develop the role that community pharmacists may play in the Portuguese health system. The community pharmacist scenario design followed a three-stage approach. The first stage comprised thinking of relevant questions to be addressed and definition of the scenarios horizon. The second stage comprised two face-to-face, scenario-building workshops, for which 10 experts from practice and academic settings were invited. Academic and professional experience was the main selection criteria. The first workshop was meant for context analysis and design of draft scenarios, while the second was aimed at scenario analysis and validation. The final scenarios were built merging workshops' information with data collected from scientific literature followed by team consensus. The final stage involved scenario development carried by the authors alone, developing the narratives behind each scenario. Analysis allowed the identification of critical factors expected to have particular influence in 2020 for Portuguese community pharmacists, leading to two critical uncertainties: the "Legislative environment" and "Ability to innovate and develop services". Three final scenarios were built, namely "Pharmacy-Mall", "e-Pharmacist", and "Reorganize or Die". These scenarios provide possible trends for market needs, pharmacist workforce numbers, and expected qualifications to be developed by future professionals. In all scenarios it is clear that the future advance of Portuguese community pharmacists will depend on pharmaceutical services provision beyond medicine dispensing. This innovative professional role will require the acquisition or development of competencies in the fields of management, leadership, marketing, information technologies, teamwork abilities, and behavioural and communication skills. To accomplish a sustainable evolution, legislative changes and adequate financial incentives will be beneficial. The scenario development proves to be valuable as a strategic planning tool, not only for understanding future community pharmacist needs in a complex and uncertain environment, but also for other health care professionals.

Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-07-01

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

Towards a Sustainable Approach to Nanotechnology by Integrating Life Cycle Assessment into the Undergraduate Engineering Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kopelevich, Dmitry I.; Ziegler, Kirk J.; Lindner, Angela S.; Bonzongo, Jean-Claude J.

2012-01-01

Because rapid growth of nanotechnology is expected to lead to intentional and non-intentional releases, future engineers will need to minimize negative environmental and health impacts of nanomaterials. We developed two upper-level undergraduate courses centered on life-cycle assessment of nanomaterials. The first part of the course sequence…

Elite Female Business Students in China and Norway: Job-Related Values and Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nordhaug, Odd; Gooderham, Paul; Zhang, Xian; Liu, Yali; Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth

2010-01-01

The focus of this paper is on the work-related values, preferences, and future expectations among female students at two elite business schools in China and Norway. The paper argues that while gender theory predicts no significant differences between these two groups, both cultural and economic development theory imply fundamental differences. The…

Thinning Guidelines For Loblolly Pine Plantations in Eastern Texas Based on Alternative Management Criteria

Treesearch

Charles T. Stiff; William F. Stansfield

2004-01-01

Separate thinning guidelines were developed for maximizing land expectation value (LEV), present net worth (PNW), and total sawlog yield (TSY) of existing and future loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantations in eastern Texas. The guidelines were created using data from simulated stands which were thinned one time during their rotation using a...

Great Expectations: The Relationship between Future Time Perspective, Learning from Others, and Employability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froehlich, Dominik E.; Beausaert, Simon A. J.; Segers, Mien S. R.

2015-01-01

Employees in countries with advanced industrial economies need to continuously develop their competences to sustain their employability--that is, to have a set of competences that enables them to maintain or find an adequate job. But how should efforts to enhance employability progress in the context of the demographic shift? Previous research…

What Changes Can We Expect? Future Trends Impacting Early Childhood Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neugebauer, Roger; Donohue, Chip; Schweinhart, Larry; Milic, Sasa; Martin, Jody

2011-01-01

The author invited some of his friends to give their views regarding key trends that will impact the early childhood world in the coming years. Chip Donohue, Director of Distance Learning, Erikson Institute, Chicago, Illinois, observed that the rapid pace of technology development and deployment has already changed, and will continue to change,…

In the Eye of the Beholder: Charter Schools and Innovation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lake, Robin J.

2008-01-01

Many expect that charter schools will produce innovations, but it is unclear what kinds and how much innovation is desirable. This paper summarizes the research evidence on charter school innovation to date and suggests ways to more productively pursue future research and development in the charter sector. The paper addresses three main questions:…

A Season of Change: How Science Librarians Can Remain Relevant with Open Access and Scholarly Communications Initiatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Elizabeth

2009-01-01

The current rate of change suggests scholarly communications issues such as new publication models and technology to connect library and research tools is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. As models evolve, standards develop, and scientists evolve in their communication patterns, librarians will need to embrace transitional…

Phase I: Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Erin L. Landguth; Curtis Flather

2010-01-01

This project is addressing some of the most important emerging conservation issues in the American Great Plains region by studying the interaction of climate change and human development on habitat for native wildlife species. We are integrating the most current understandings of expected future change in vegetation and land use patterns across the Great Plains, and...

Can We Expect to Recruit Future Engineers among Students Who Have Never Repaired a Toy?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Virtic, Mateja Ploj; Šorgo, Andrej

2016-01-01

Education has traditionally focused primarily on content and cognitive goals. While content knowledge is important, to enter to the labour market today, graduates must also develop manual skills and technical literacy. The paper deals with engineering and technology education in Slovenia. It portrays the problem of the decline in interest in…

Intelligent Technologies in Library and Information Service Applications. ASIST Monograph Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lancaster, F. W.; Warner, Amy

The objective of this study was to gain enough familiarity with developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies to be able to advise the information service community on what can be applied today and what one might reasonably expect to be applicable to library and information services in the near future. The emphasis is on…

Shake, Rattle, & Roll: Teaching Guide & Poster. Expect the Unexpected with Math[R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Actuarial Foundation, 2013

2013-01-01

"Shake, Rattle, & Roll" is a new program developed by The Actuarial Foundation with Scholastic, provides dynamic real-world math content designed to build student skills while showing students the relevance of math to understanding their world and planning for their future. Math skills are increasingly important for students. According to the U.S.…

Human Factors beyond the Workplace: A Social Context for Robotics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warnat, Winifred I.

This discussion of the influence of robotics on the individual and society addresses three major topics: (1) the current employment picture and future expectations; (2) developments in the robotics industry and their impact on the changing character of work; and (3) the implications of these changes for both society and the individual worker. The…

HSV-2 Vaccine: Current Status and Insight into Factors for Developing an Efficient Vaccine

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xiao-Peng; Muhammad, Zaka S.; Wang, Jian-Guang; Lin, Wu; Guo, Shi-Kun; Zhang, Wei

2014-01-01

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), a globally sexually transmitted virus, and also one of the main causes of genital ulcer diseases, increases susceptibility to HIV-1. Effective vaccines to prevent HSV-2 infection are not yet available, but are currently being developed. To facilitate this process, the latest progress in development of these vaccines is reviewed in this paper. A summary of the most promising HSV-2 vaccines tested in animals in the last five years is presented, including the main factors, and new ideas for developing an effective vaccine from animal experiments and human clinical trials. Experimental results indicate that future HSV-2 vaccines may depend on a strategy that targets mucosal immunity. Furthermore, estradiol, which increases the effectiveness of vaccines, may be considered as an adjuvant. Therefore, this review is expected to provide possible strategies for development of future HSV-2 vaccines. PMID:24469503

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

PubMed

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

PubMed Central

Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Development for Electric Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Carolyn R.; Kerslake, Thomas W.; Scheidegger, Robert J.; Woodworth, Andrew A.; Lauenstein, Jean-Marie

2015-01-01

NASA is developing technologies to prepare for human exploration missions to Mars. Solar electric propulsion (SEP) systems are expected to enable a new cost effective means to deliver cargo to the Mars surface. Nearer term missions to Mars moons or near-Earth asteroids can be used to both develop and demonstrate the needed technology for these future Mars missions while demonstrating new capabilities in their own right. This presentation discusses recent technology development accomplishments for high power, high voltage solar arrays and power management that enable a new class of SEP missions.

Satellite broadcasting and communications in the Asia-Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonzon, S.

1985-12-01

Against the general context of worldwide developments in satellite communications and broadcasting, and the recent ORB'85 Conference, this paper assesses the future for satellite communication and broadcasting in the Asia-Pacific region. While most attention focusses on satellite developments for the industrialized world, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to play an increasingly significant role, and the needs of its population will be satisfied by development of satellite communications and broadcasting systems. Particular emphasis is placed in this paper on the broadcasting aspects, and their relationship to cultural and economic development.

Energy use in the marine transportation industry: Task III. Efficiency improvements; Task IV. Industry future. Final report, Volume IV. [Projections for year 2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1977-12-01

Tasks III and IV measure the characteristics of potential research and development programs that could be applied to the maritime industry. It was necessary to identify potential operating scenarios for the maritime industry in the year 2000 and determine the energy consumption that would result given those scenarios. After the introductory chapter the operational, regulatory, and vessel-size scenarios for the year 2000 are developed in Chapter II. In Chapter III, future cargo flows and expected levels of energy use for the baseline 2000 projection are determined. In Chapter IV, the research and development programs are introduced into the future USmore » flag fleet and the energy-savings potential associated with each is determined. The first four appendices (A through D) describe each of the generic technologies. The fifth appendix (E) contains the baseline operating and cost parameters against which 15 program areas were evaluated. (MCW)« less

Recent Development Activities and Future Mission Applications of NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Michael J.; Pencil, Eric J.

2014-01-01

NASAs Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) project is developing next generation ion propulsion technologies to enhance the performance and lower the costs of future NASA space science missions. This is being accomplished by producing Engineering Model (EM) and Prototype Model (PM) components, validating these via qualification-level and integrated system testing, and preparing the transition of NEXT technologies to flight system development. This presentation is a follow-up to the NEXT project overviews presented in 2009-2010. It reviews the status of the NEXT project, presents the current system performance characteristics, and describes planned activities in continuing the transition of NEXT technology to a first flight. In 2013 a voluntary decision was made to terminate the long duration test of the NEXT thruster, given the thruster design has exceeded all expectations by accumulating over 50,000 hours of operation to demonstrate around 900 kg of xenon throughput. Besides its promise for upcoming NASA science missions, NEXT has excellent potential for future commercial and international spacecraft applications.

The ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program for psychiatrists: past history, current status, and future directions.

PubMed

Faulkner, Larry R; Tivnan, Patricia W; Winstead, Daniel K; Reus, Victor I; Andrade, Naleen N; Brooks, Beth Ann; Colenda, Christopher C; Mrazek, David A; Reifler, Burton V; Schneidman, Barbara

2008-01-01

To describe the American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology (ABPN) Maintenance of Certification Program, its underlying rationale, how it will be implemented now, and what it might look like in the future. The authors describe the philosophical foundation, specific components, and the implementation timeline of the ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program; the development of specific products that might be used by ABPN diplomates to meet its requirements; and several unanswered questions about its current status and future development. The ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program consists of specific requirements pertaining to professional standing, self-assessment and lifelong learning, performance in practice, and cognitive expertise that will be implemented incrementally over the next decade. The ABPN Maintenance of Certification Program has been implemented in a manner that is as consistent as possible with its underlying philosophical beliefs as well as the current and expected public and political concerns, diplomate needs, and the requirements of organizations responsible for licensure, credentialing, privileging, accreditation, professional development, and physician reimbursement.

Defining the Scope of Prognosis: Primary Care Clinicians' Perspectives on Predicting the Future Health of Older Adults.

PubMed

Thomas, John M; Fried, Terri R

2018-05-01

Studies examining the attitudes of clinicians toward prognostication for older adults have focused on life expectancy prediction. Little is known about whether clinicians approach prognostication in other ways. To describe how clinicians approach prognostication for older adults, defined broadly as making projections about patients' future health. In five focus groups, 30 primary care clinicians from community-based, academic-affiliated, and Veterans Affairs primary care practices were given open-ended questions about how they make projections about their patients' future health and how this informs the approach to care. Content analysis was used to organize responses into themes. Clinicians spoke about future health in terms of a variety of health outcomes in addition to life expectancy, including independence in activities and decision making, quality of life, avoiding hospitalization, and symptom burden. They described approaches in predicting these health outcomes, including making observations about the overall trajectory of patients to predict health outcomes and recognizing increased risk for adverse health outcomes. Clinicians expressed reservations about using estimates of mortality risk and life expectancy to think about and communicate patients' future health. They discussed ways in which future research might help them in thinking about and discussing patients' future health to guide care decisions, including identifying when and whether interventions might impact future health. The perspectives of primary care clinicians in this study confirm that prognostic considerations can go beyond precise estimates of mortality risk and life expectancy to include a number of outcomes and approaches to predicting those outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Renewed Promise of Medical Informatics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Summary The promise of the field of Medical Informatics has been great and its impact has been significant. In 1999, the Yearbook editors of the International Medical Informatics Association (IMIA) - also the authors of the present paper - sought to assess this impact by selecting a number of seminal papers in the field, and asking experts to comment on these articles. In particular, it was requested whether and how the expectations, represented by these papers, had been fulfilled since their publication several decades earlier. Each expert was also invited to comment on what might be expected in the future. In the present paper, these areas are briefly reviewed again. Where did these early papers have an impact and where were they not as successful as originally expected? It should be noted that the extraordinary developments in computer technology observed in the last two decades could not have been foreseen by these early researchers. In closing, some of the possibilities and limitations of research in medical informatics are outlined in the context of a framework that considers six levels of computer applications in medicine and health care. For each level, some predictions are made for the future, concluded with thoughts on fruitful areas for ongoing research in the field. PMID:27199195

Solar thermal technologies - Potential benefits to U.S. utilities and industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terasawa, K. L.; Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs. Previously announced in STAR as N83-10547

The Renewed Promise of Medical Informatics.

PubMed

van Bemmel, J H; McCray, A T

2016-05-20

The promise of the field of Medical Informatics has been great and its impact has been significant. In 1999, the Yearbook editors of the International Medical Informatics Association (IMIA) - also the authors of the present paper - sought to assess this impact by selecting a number of seminal papers in the field, and asking experts to comment on these articles. In particular, it was requested whether and how the expectations, represented by these papers, had been fulfilled since their publication several decades earlier. Each expert was also invited to comment on what might be expected in the future. In the present paper, these areas are briefly reviewed again. Where did these early papers have an impact and where were they not as successful as originally expected? It should be noted that the extraordinary developments in computer technology observed in the last two decades could not have been foreseen by these early researchers. In closing, some of the possibilities and limitations of research in medical informatics are outlined in the context of a framework that considers six levels of computer applications in medicine and health care. For each level, some predictions are made for the future, concluded with thoughts on fruitful areas for ongoing research in the field.

Virtual reality games for movement rehabilitation in neurological conditions: how do we meet the needs and expectations of the users?

PubMed

Lewis, Gwyn N; Rosie, Juliet A

2012-01-01

To review quantitative and qualitative studies that have examined the users' response to virtual reality game-based interventions in people with movement disorders associated with chronic neurological conditions. We aimed to determine key themes that influenced users' enjoyment and engagement in the games and develop suggestions as to how future systems could best address their needs and expectations. There were a limited number of studies that evaluated user opinions. From those found, seven common themes emerged: technology limitations, user control and therapist assistance, the novel physical and cognitive challenge, feedback, social interaction, game purpose and expectations, and the virtual environments. Our key recommendations derived from the review were to avoid technology failure, maintain overt therapeutic principles within the games, encompass progression to promote continuing physical and cognitive challenge, and to provide feedback that is easily and readily associated with success. While there have been few studies that have evaluated the users' perspective of virtual rehabilitation games, our findings indicate that canvassing these experiences provides valuable information on the needs of the intended users. Incorporating our recommendations may enhance the efficacy of future systems to optimize the rehabilitation benefits of virtual reality games.

Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

PubMed

Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

2012-11-06

Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

Embracing the Future: What Can Accounting Graduates Expect?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corkern, Sheree M.; Parks, Sandra B.; Morgan, Mark I.

2013-01-01

This article informs accounting educators and graduates about key issues in the accounting profession of today, which has entered a new age, and accounting educators and advisors, old and new, must be informed about future prospects for students and make students aware of what they can expect as accounting graduates. Passing this knowledge to…

Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

PubMed

Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (ORION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

2017-01-01

NASA uses two HRA assessment methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is still expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a PRA model that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more problematic. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

Worklife expectancies of fixed-term Finnish employees in 1997-2006.

PubMed

Nurminen, Markku

2008-04-01

Fixed-term employment is prevalent in the Finnish labor force. This form of employment contract is marked by fragmentary work periods, demands for flexibility in workhours, and concern for multiple insecurities. A nonpermanent employee may also incur adverse health consequences. Yet there exist no exact statistics on the duration of fixed-term employment. This paper estimated the future duration of the time that a Finn is expected to be engaged in irregular work. Multistate regression modeling and stochastic analysis were applied to aggregated data from surveys conducted among the labor force by Statistics Finland in 1997-2006. In 2006, a Finnish male was expected to work a total of 3.8 years in fixed-term employment, combined over consecutive or separate time spans; this time amounts to 8% of his remaining work career from entry into the work force until final retirement. For a woman the expectancy was greater, 6.5 years or 13%. For the age interval 20-29 years, the total was 16% for men and 23% for women. The type and duration of employment is influenced by security factors and economic cycles, both of which affect men and women differently. Over the past decade, fixed-term employment increased consistently in the female labor contingent, and it was more pronounced during economic slowdowns. This labor market development calls for standards for flexibility and guarantees for security in the fragmented future worklives of fixed-term employees.

Cerebrovascular accident patients: an interdisciplinary/multidisciplinary audit.

PubMed

Penman, G M; Wojnar-Horton, S A; Bebee, R

1991-01-01

To develop appropriate standards to assess the intervention with cerebrovascular accident (CVA) patients by allied health professionals; to establish baseline data with which subsequent information collected could be compared. Retrospective criteria auditing of hospital files was undertaken to evaluate whether the allied health professionals were meeting the expected clinical standards for patients admitted with a diagnosis of CVA. Written documentation in hospital files did not meet expected standards in all criteria and varied between professions. The data obtained provided a baseline against which future results could be measured. It was expected that subsequent evaluations would provide improved results. All departments agreed that meeting clinical standards was important and it was agreed to repeat the audit in one year and to include some outcome standards using patients' perceptions of service provision.

Theory of choice in bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks.

PubMed

Averbeck, Bruno B

2015-03-01

Decision making has been studied with a wide array of tasks. Here we examine the theoretical structure of bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks. These tasks move beyond tasks where the choice in the current trial does not affect future expected rewards. We have modeled these tasks using Markov decision processes (MDPs). MDPs provide a general framework for modeling tasks in which decisions affect the information on which future choices will be made. Under the assumption that agents are maximizing expected rewards, MDPs provide normative solutions. We find that all three classes of tasks pose choices among actions which trade-off immediate and future expected rewards. The tasks drive these trade-offs in unique ways, however. For bandit and information sampling tasks, increasing uncertainty or the time horizon shifts value to actions that pay-off in the future. Correspondingly, decreasing uncertainty increases the relative value of actions that pay-off immediately. For foraging tasks the time-horizon plays the dominant role, as choices do not affect future uncertainty in these tasks.

Personalized Nanomedicine: A Revolution at the Nanoscale.

PubMed

Fornaguera, Cristina; García-Celma, Maria José

2017-10-12

Nanomedicine is an interdisciplinary research field that results from the application of nanotechnology to medicine and has the potential to significantly improve some current treatments. Specifically, in the field of personalized medicine, it is expected to have a great impact in the near future due to its multiple advantages, namely its versatility to adapt a drug to a cohort of patients. In the present review, the properties and requirements of pharmaceutical dosage forms at the nanoscale, so-called nanomedicines, are been highlighted. An overview of the main current nanomedicines in pre-clinical and clinical development is presented, detailing the challenges to the personalization of these therapies. Next, the process of development of novel nanomedicines is described, from their design in research labs to their arrival on the market, including considerations for the design of nanomedicines adapted to the requirements of the market to achieve safe, effective, and quality products. Finally, attention is given to the point of view of the pharmaceutical industry, including regulation issues applied to the specific case of personalized medicine. The authors expect this review to be a useful overview of the current state of the art of nanomedicine research and industrial production, and the future opportunities of personalized medicine in the upcoming years. The authors encourage the development and marketing of novel personalized nanomedicines.

Professionalized Music Teacher Education: Swiss and French Students' Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Güsewell, Angelika; Joliat, François; Terrien, Pascal

2017-01-01

The aim of this research was to investigate preservice music teachers' expectations of their curriculum, namely: (a) What content do they expect in view of their future professional activity? (b) Are their expectations in line with the principles of professionalized teacher education? (c) Are there any differences between the expectations of Swiss…

The potential effect of population development, smoking and antioxidant supplementation on the future epidemiology of age-related macular degeneration in Switzerland.

PubMed

Bauer, P; Barthelmes, D; Kurz, M; Fleischhauer, J C; Sutter, F K

2008-05-01

Due to the predicted age shift of the population an increase in the number of patients with late AMD is expected. At present smoking represents the only modifiable risk factor. Supplementation of antioxidants in patients at risk is the sole effective pharmacological prevention. The aim of this study is to estimate the future epidemiological development of late AMD in Switzerland and to quantify the potential effects of smoking and antioxidants supplementation. The modelling of the future development of late AMD cases in Switzerland was based on a meta-analysis of the published data on AMD-prevalence and on published Swiss population development scenarios until 2050. Three different scenarios were compared: low, mean and high. The late AMD cases caused by smoking were calculated using the "population attributable fraction" formula and data on the current smoking habits of the Swiss population. The number of potentially preventable cases was estimated using the data of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). According to the mean population development scenario, late AMD cases in Switzerland will rise from 37 200 cases in 2005 to 52 500 cases in 2020 and to 93 200 cases in 2050. Using the "low" and the "high" scenarios the late AMD cases may range from 49 500 to 56 000 in 2020 and from 73 700 to 118 400 in 2050, respectively. Smoking is responsible for approximately 7 % of all late AMD cases, i. e., 2600 cases in 2005, 3800 cases in 2020, 6600 cases in 2050 ("mean scenario"). With future antioxidant supplementation to all patients at risk another 3100 cases would be preventable until 2020 and possibly 23 500 cases until 2050. Due to age shift in the population a 2.5-fold increase in late AMD cases until 2050 is expected, representing a socioeconomic challenge. Cessation of smoking and supplementation of antioxidants to all patients at risk has the potential to reduce this number. Unfortunately, public awareness is low. These data may support health-care providers and public opinion leaders when developing public education and prevention strategies.

Expectations, anxiety, depression, and physical health status as predictors of recovery in open-heart surgery patients.

PubMed

Chunta, Kristy S

2009-01-01

Recovery after open-heart surgery is a complex process that presents psychosocial and physical challenges that continue well after discharge. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship among expectations, anxiety, depression, and physical health status (PHS) and to determine predictors of postoperative PHS in open-heart surgery patients. A convenience sample (N = 54) was recruited from 2 hospitals in rural regions from 2 different mid-Atlantic states. The sample included participants who underwent coronary artery bypass graft or valve replacement surgery for the first time. The study used a longitudinal design, and data were collected preoperatively in the hospital or surgeons' offices and 4 weeks postoperatively by telephone interviews. Participants were interviewed using the following questionnaires: the Future Expectations Regarding Life with Heart Disease scale, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale, and the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey. Repeated-measures analysis of variance, Pearson product-moment correlations, and multiple regression were used for data analyses. Statistical analysis revealed that anxiety (P = .002) and depression (P = .026) scores decreased postoperatively. Significant relationships were found among the preoperative and postoperative variables: expectations, anxiety, depression, and PHS. Analyses also found that preoperative expectations, anxiety, depression, and PHS contributed 38% of the variance of postoperative PHS (P < .001). However, the postoperative variables were not significant predictors of postoperative PHS (P = .075). The findings support the need for interventions to assist patients in developing realistic expectations and for clinicians to screen patients for anxiety and depression before and after surgery. Future research needs to measure PHS at various times postoperatively to identify continued limitations after surgery.

Relationships between expected, online and remembered enjoyment for food products.

PubMed

Robinson, Eric

2014-03-01

How enjoyable a food product is remembered to be is likely to shape future choice. The present study tested the influence that expectations and specific moments during consumption experiences have on remembered enjoyment for food products. Sixty-four participants consumed three snack foods (savoury, sweet and savoury-sweet) and rated expected and online enjoyment for each product. Twenty-four hours later participants rated remembered enjoyment and future expected enjoyment for each product. Remembered enjoyment differed to online enjoyment for two of the three products, resulting in the foods being remembered as less enjoyable than they actually were. Both expected enjoyment and specific moments during the consumption experience (e.g. the least enjoyable mouthful) influenced remembered enjoyment. However, the factors that shaped remembered enjoyment were not consistent across the different food products. Remembered enjoyment was also shown to be a better predictor of future expected enjoyment than online enjoyment. Remembered enjoyment is likely to influence choice behaviour and can be discrepant to actual enjoyment. Specific moments during a consumption experience can have disproportionately large influence on remembered enjoyment (whilst others are neglected), but the factors that determine which moments influence remembered enjoyment are unclear. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maladaptive cognitive appraisals in children with high-functioning autism: associations with fear, anxiety and theory of mind.

PubMed

Sharma, Shilpi; Woolfson, Lisa M; Hunter, Simon C

2014-04-01

Despite the well-documented success of cognitive restructuring techniques in the treatment of anxiety disorders, there is still little clarity on which cognitions underpin fear and anxiety in children with high-functioning autism spectrum disorder. This study examined whether certain cognitive appraisals, known to be associated with fear and anxiety in typically developing groups, may help explain these emotions in children with high-functioning autism spectrum disorder. It also investigated relations between these cognitive appraisals and theory of mind. Appraisals, fear and anxiety were assessed using a vignette approach in 22 children with high-functioning autism spectrum disorders and 22 typically developing children. The two groups differed significantly on all four appraisal types. Anxiety was negatively correlated with future expectancy and positively with problem-focused coping potential in the high-functioning autism spectrum disorder group but was not correlated with appraisals in the typically developing group. The two appraisals associated with fear were emotion-focused coping potential (in the high-functioning autism spectrum disorder group only) and self-accountability (in the typically developing group only). Linear regression analysis found that appraisals of emotion-focused coping potential, problem-focused coping potential and future expectancy were significant predictors of theory-of-mind ability in the high-functioning autism spectrum disorders group. These findings indicate that specific, problematic patterns of appraisal may characterise children with high-functioning autism spectrum disorders.

Artificial cognitive memory—changing from density driven to functionality driven

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, L. P.; Yi, K. J.; Ramanathan, K.; Zhao, R.; Ning, N.; Ding, D.; Chong, T. C.

2011-03-01

Increasing density based on bit size reduction is currently a main driving force for the development of data storage technologies. However, it is expected that all of the current available storage technologies might approach their physical limits in around 15 to 20 years due to miniaturization. To further advance the storage technologies, it is required to explore a new development trend that is different from density driven. One possible direction is to derive insights from biological counterparts. Unlike physical memories that have a single function of data storage, human memory is versatile. It contributes to functions of data storage, information processing, and most importantly, cognitive functions such as adaptation, learning, perception, knowledge generation, etc. In this paper, a brief review of current data storage technologies are presented, followed by discussions of future storage technology development trend. We expect that the driving force will evolve from density to functionality, and new memory modules associated with additional functions other than only data storage will appear. As an initial step toward building a future generation memory technology, we propose Artificial Cognitive Memory (ACM), a memory based intelligent system. We also present the characteristics of ACM, new technologies that can be used to develop ACM components such as bioinspired element cells (silicon, memristor, phase change, etc.), and possible methodologies to construct a biologically inspired hierarchical system.

Birth Expectations of U.S. Women Aged 15-44.

PubMed

Daugherty, Jill; Martinez, Gladys

2016-10-01

Data from the National Survey of Family Growth •Among U.S. women aged 15-44 in 2013-2015, 50% expected to have a child in the future. •In 2013-2015, differences were seen by age in women's expectations to have a child in the future, regardless of the number of biological children they have had. •In 2013-2015, women on average expected to have 2.2 children in their lifetime. This estimate has decreased since 2002. •A smaller percentage of never married, not cohabiting women expected to have a child within 2 years from the time of interview (5%) compared with currently married (19%) and currently cohabiting (16%) women. •Eighty-two percent of women who already had two or more children did not expect to have more children in the future. Birth expectations have been shown to be related to sexual activity, contraceptive use, and fertility (1-3). While most U.S. women believe that having two children is ideal (4), this varies by sociodemographic characteristics. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), this report describes women's birth expectations, number of children expected, and when they expected their next child to be born. Data are shown by age, marital or cohabiting status, and number of children. Selected trends are also shown using NSFG data from 2002, 2006-2010, 2011-2013, and 2013-2015. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management.

PubMed

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Thompson, Kimberly M

2016-12-01

To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response. INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management. Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations. New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.

Unified Performance and Power Modeling of Scientific Workloads

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Shuaiwen; Barker, Kevin J.; Kerbyson, Darren J.

2013-11-17

It is expected that scientific applications executing on future large-scale HPC must be optimized not only in terms of performance, but also in terms of power consumption. As power and energy become increasingly constrained resources, researchers and developers must have access to tools that will allow for accurate prediction of both performance and power consumption. Reasoning about performance and power consumption in concert will be critical for achieving maximum utilization of limited resources on future HPC systems. To this end, we present a unified performance and power model for the Nek-Bone mini-application developed as part of the DOE's CESAR Exascalemore » Co-Design Center. Our models consider the impact of computation, point-to-point communication, and collective communication« less

Architectural Implementation of NASA Space Telecommunications Radio System Specification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, Kenneth J.; Lux, James P.; Lang, Minh; Duncan, Courtney B.

2012-01-01

This software demonstrates a working implementation of the NASA STRS (Space Telecommunications Radio System) architecture specification. This is a developing specification of software architecture and required interfaces to provide commonality among future NASA and commercial software-defined radios for space, and allow for easier mixing of software and hardware from different vendors. It provides required functions, and supports interaction with STRS-compliant simple test plug-ins ("waveforms"). All of it is programmed in "plain C," except where necessary to interact with C++ plug-ins. It offers a small footprint, suitable for use in JPL radio hardware. Future NASA work is expected to develop into fully capable software-defined radios for use on the space station, other space vehicles, and interplanetary probes.

CRISPR-mediated Ophthalmic Genome Surgery.

PubMed

Cho, Galaxy Y; Abdulla, Yazeed; Sengillo, Jesse D; Justus, Sally; Schaefer, Kellie A; Bassuk, Alexander G; Tsang, Stephen H; Mahajan, Vinit B

2017-09-01

Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) is a genome engineering system with great potential for clinical applications due to its versatility and programmability. This review highlights the development and use of CRISPR-mediated ophthalmic genome surgery in recent years. Diverse CRISPR techniques are in development to target a wide array of ophthalmic conditions, including inherited and acquired conditions. Preclinical disease modeling and recent successes in gene editing suggest potential efficacy of CRISPR as a therapeutic for inherited conditions. In particular, the treatment of Leber congenital amaurosis with CRISPR-mediated genome surgery is expected to reach clinical trials in the near future. Treatment options for inherited retinal dystrophies are currently limited. CRISPR-mediated genome surgery methods may be able to address this unmet need in the future.

HSR Model Deformation Measurements from Subsonic to Supersonic Speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burner, A. W.; Erickson, G. E.; Goodman, W. L.; Fleming, G. A.

1999-01-01

This paper describes the video model deformation technique (VMD) used at five NASA facilities and the projection moire interferometry (PMI) technique used at two NASA facilities. Comparisons between the two techniques for model deformation measurements are provided. Facilities at NASA-Ames and NASA-Langley where deformation measurements have been made are presented. Examples of HSR model deformation measurements from the Langley Unitary Wind Tunnel, Langley 16-foot Transonic Wind Tunnel, and the Ames 12-foot Pressure Tunnel are presented. A study to improve and develop new targeting schemes at the National Transonic Facility is also described. The consideration of milled targets for future HSR models is recommended when deformation measurements are expected to be required. Finally, future development work for VMD and PMI is addressed.

Well-being, life satisfaction and capabilities of flood disaster victims

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ootegem, Luc, E-mail: Luc.VanOotegem@UGent.be; SHERPPA–Ghent University; Verhofstadt, Elsy

The individual well-being of flood disaster victims is examined making use of two concepts: life satisfaction and perceived capabilities in life. These concepts are compared in two samples: a representative sample of Flemish respondents and a specific sample of people that have been the victim of a pluvial flood. Well-being as life satisfaction is found not to be related to past or expected future flooding, whereas well-being as capabilities in life is negatively related to both past and expected future flooding. - Highlights: • Well-being as life satisfaction is not related to past or expected future flooding. • Well-being asmore » capabilities in life is negatively related to flooding. • A disaster can scare people for the future because of the scars that it provokes. • Assess the impact of a disaster not only by monetary damage and life satisfaction.« less

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, D.H.

1988-10-01

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalentmore » (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%.« less

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, D.H.

1988-01-01

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Self-Presentation Strategies, Fear of Success and Anticipation of Future Success among University and High School Students.

PubMed

Kosakowska-Berezecka, Natasza; Jurek, Paweł; Besta, Tomasz; Badowska, Sylwia

2017-01-01

The backlash avoidance model (BAM) suggests women insufficiently self-promote because they fear backlash for behavior which is incongruent with traditional gender roles. Avoiding self-promoting behavior is also potentially related to associating success with negative consequences. In two studies we tested whether self-promotion and fear of success will be predictors of lower salaries and anticipation of lower chances of success in an exam. In study 1, prior to the exam they were about to take, we asked 234 students about their predictions concerning exam results and their future earnings. They also filled scales measuring their associations with success (fear of success) and tendency for self-promotion. The tested model proved that in comparison to men, women expect lower salaries in the future, anticipate lower test performance and associate success with more negative consequences. Both tendency for self-promotion and fear of success are related to anticipation of success in test performance and expectations concerning future earnings. In study 2 we repeated the procedure on a sample of younger female and male high school pupils ( N = 100) to verify whether associating success with negative consequences and differences in self-promotion strategies are observable in a younger demographic. Our results show that girls and boys in high school do not differ with regard to fear of success, self-promotion or agency levels. Girls and boys anticipated to obtain similar results in math exam results, but girls expected to have higher results in language exams. Nevertheless, school pupils also differed regarding their future earnings but only in the short term. Fear of success and agency self-ratings were significant predictors of expectations concerning future earnings, but only among high school boys and with regard to earnings expected just after graduation.

Self-Presentation Strategies, Fear of Success and Anticipation of Future Success among University and High School Students

PubMed Central

Kosakowska-Berezecka, Natasza; Jurek, Paweł; Besta, Tomasz; Badowska, Sylwia

2017-01-01

The backlash avoidance model (BAM) suggests women insufficiently self-promote because they fear backlash for behavior which is incongruent with traditional gender roles. Avoiding self-promoting behavior is also potentially related to associating success with negative consequences. In two studies we tested whether self-promotion and fear of success will be predictors of lower salaries and anticipation of lower chances of success in an exam. In study 1, prior to the exam they were about to take, we asked 234 students about their predictions concerning exam results and their future earnings. They also filled scales measuring their associations with success (fear of success) and tendency for self-promotion. The tested model proved that in comparison to men, women expect lower salaries in the future, anticipate lower test performance and associate success with more negative consequences. Both tendency for self-promotion and fear of success are related to anticipation of success in test performance and expectations concerning future earnings. In study 2 we repeated the procedure on a sample of younger female and male high school pupils (N = 100) to verify whether associating success with negative consequences and differences in self-promotion strategies are observable in a younger demographic. Our results show that girls and boys in high school do not differ with regard to fear of success, self-promotion or agency levels. Girls and boys anticipated to obtain similar results in math exam results, but girls expected to have higher results in language exams. Nevertheless, school pupils also differed regarding their future earnings but only in the short term. Fear of success and agency self-ratings were significant predictors of expectations concerning future earnings, but only among high school boys and with regard to earnings expected just after graduation. PMID:29163271

Focusing on situation-specific expectations in major depression as basis for behavioural experiments - Development of the Depressive Expectations Scale.

PubMed

Kube, Tobias; D'Astolfo, Lisa; Glombiewski, Julia A; Doering, Bettina K; Rief, Winfried

2017-09-01

Dysfunctional expectations are considered to be core features of various mental disorders. The aim of the study was to develop the Depressive Expectations Scale (DES) as a depression-specific measure for the assessment of dysfunctional expectations. Whereas previous research primarily focused on general cognitions and attitudes, the DES assesses 25 future-directed expectations (originally 75 items) which are situation-specific and falsifiable. To evaluate the psychometric properties of the DES, the scale was completed by 175 participants with and without severe depressive symptoms in an online survey. Participants additionally completed the Patient Health Questionnaire modules for depression (PHQ-9) and anxiety (GAD-7). People experiencing depressive symptoms were informed about the study with the help of self-help organizations. Reliability analyses indicated excellent internal consistency of the scale. An exploratory factor analyses revealed four factors: social rejection, social support, mood regulation, and ability to perform. The DES sum score strongly correlated with the severity of depressive symptoms. The DES sum score also significantly correlated with symptoms of generalized anxiety. The DES was shown to have excellent reliability; validity analyses were promising. As the DES items are situation-specific and falsifiable, they can be tested by the individual using behavioural experiments and may therefore facilitate cognitive restructuring. Thus, a structured assessment of patients' expectation with help of the DES can provide a basis for interventions within cognitive-behavioural treatment of depression. Assessing situation-specific expectations in patients experiencing depressive symptoms can provide a basis for the conduction of behavioural experiments to test patients' expectations. For the use of behavioural experiments, therapists should choose those dysfunctional expectations which a patient strongly agrees on. To modify patients' expectations, they should be exposed to situations where the discrepancy between patients' expectations and actual situational outcomes can be maximized. The Depressive Expectations Scale can be completed repeatedly to monitor a patient's progress within cognitive-behavioural treatment. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devis, Annemarie; Van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Demuzere, Matthias

2018-06-01

Accurate wind resource assessments are crucial in the development of wind farm projects. However, it is common practice to estimate the wind yield over the next 20 years from short-term measurements and reanalysis data of the past 20 years, even though wind climatology is expected to change under the future climate. The present work examines future changes in wind power output over Europe using an ensemble of ESMs. The power output is calculated using the entire wind speed PDF and a non-constant power conversion coefficient. Based on this method, the ESM ensemble projects changes in near-future power outputs with a spatially varying magnitude between ‑12% and 8%. The most extreme changes occur over the Mediterranean region. For the first time, the sensitivity of these future change in power output to the type of wind turbine is also investigated. The analysis reveals that the projected wind power changes may vary in up to half of their magnitude, depending on the type of turbine and region of interest. As such, we recommend that wind industries fully account for projected near-future changes in wind power output by taking them into account as a well-defined loss/gain and uncertainty when estimating the yield of a future wind farm.

Gap analysis: a method to assess core competency development in the curriculum.

PubMed

Fater, Kerry H

2013-01-01

To determine the extent to which safety and quality improvement core competency development occurs in an undergraduate nursing program. Rapid change and increased complexity of health care environments demands that health care professionals are adequately prepared to provide high quality, safe care. A gap analysis compared the present state of competency development to a desirable (ideal) state. The core competencies, Nurse of the Future Nursing Core Competencies, reflect the ideal state and represent minimal expectations for entry into practice from pre-licensure programs. Findings from the gap analysis suggest significant strengths in numerous competency domains, deficiencies in two competency domains, and areas of redundancy in the curriculum. Gap analysis provides valuable data to direct curriculum revision. Opportunities for competency development were identified, and strategies were created jointly with the practice partner, thereby enhancing relevant knowledge, attitudes, and skills nurses need for clinical practice currently and in the future.

Power-Efficient, High-Current-Density, Long-Life Thermionic Cathode Developed for Microwave Amplifier Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wintucky, Edwin G.

2002-01-01

A power-efficient, miniature, easily manufactured, reservoir-type barium-dispenser thermionic cathode has been developed that offers the significant advantages of simultaneous high electron-emission current density (>2 A/sq cm) and very long life (>100,000 hr of continuous operation) when compared with the commonly used impregnated-type barium-dispenser cathodes. Important applications of this cathode are a wide variety of microwave and millimeter-wave vacuum electronic devices, where high output power and reliability (long life) are essential. We also expect it to enable the practical development of higher purveyance electron guns for lower voltage and more reliable device operation. The low cathode heater power and reduced size and mass are expected to be particularly beneficial in traveling-wave-tube amplifiers (TWTA's) for space communications, where future NASA mission requirements include smaller onboard spacecraft systems, higher data transmission rates (high frequency and output power) and greater electrical efficiency.

Future perspectives for Antarctic infrared astronomy at Dome C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari-Toniolo, M.

A brief presentation is done about the objectives, the justifications and the purposes of the PNRA Project entitled: ``A preliminary study of a large Antarctic IR Telescope for Dome C'', with a mention to the up-to-now history and the planned development for the next years. This research does not pretend to be either in competition or in opposition to any of the proposals in progress for IR Astronomical Observations from Antarctica, but wishes to be a contribution toward a full future utilization of the unique site characteristics expected from the High Plateau for IR Astronomy.

Molecular engineering of industrial enzymes: recent advances and future prospects.

PubMed

Yang, Haiquan; Li, Jianghua; Shin, Hyun-Dong; Du, Guocheng; Liu, Long; Chen, Jian

2014-01-01

Many enzymes are efficiently produced by microbes. However, the use of natural enzymes as biocatalysts has limitations such as low catalytic efficiency, low activity, and low stability, especially under industrial conditions. Many protein engineering technologies have been developed to modify natural enzymes and eliminate these limitations. Commonly used protein engineering strategies include directed evolution, site-directed mutagenesis, truncation, and terminal fusion. This review summarizes recent advances in the molecular engineering of industrial enzymes and discusses future prospects in this field. We expect this review to increase interest in and advance the molecular engineering of industrial enzymes.

Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

2016-11-15

The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finite land, infinite futures? Sustainable options on a fixed land base.

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

2001-01-01

The United States is expected to add around 120 million, an additional 40 percent, to its population in the next 50 years and personal incomes are generally projected to rise. This will inevitably intensify land use pressures. Between 1992 and 1997, USDA's National Resource Inventory estimated that 2.2 million acres of rural land were developed each year, with...

A Playground for All Children. Book 1: User Groups and Site Selection. Book 2: Design Competition Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York City Dept. of City Planning, NY.

These booklets, parts I and II of a three-part series, describe in detail issues related to the future development of an innovative outdoor public playground especially designed for integrated play between handicapped and able-bodied children. The first booklet describes potential user groups--the types of children who are expected to use the…

Estimating the impact of cannabis production on rural land prices in Humboldt County, CA

Treesearch

Benjamin Schwab; Van Butsic

2017-01-01

Amenity values, development potential, commodity prices and productive capacity largely determine rural land prices. For rural lands used in timber and agricultural production, capacity and expected future commodity prices play primary roles. For rural lands that are used as second homes or recreational properties, amenities— such as being near lakes or having scenic...

Neutron Activation Analysis of Water - A Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchanan, John D.

1971-01-01

Recent developments in this field are emphasized. After a brief review of basic principles, topics discussed include sources of neutrons, pre-irradiation physical and chemical treatment of samples, neutron capture and gamma-ray analysis, and selected applications. Applications of neutron activation analysis of water have increased rapidly within the last few years and may be expected to increase in the future.

Theory and Techniques for Assessing the Demand and Supply of Outdoor Recreation in the United States

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; John C. Bergstrom

1989-01-01

As the central analysis for the 1989 Renewable Resources planning Act Assessment, a household market model covering 37 recreational activities was computed for the United States. Equilibrium consumption and costs were estimated, as were likely future changes in consumption and costs in response to expected demand growth and alternative development and access policies...

Highly Branched Polyethylenes as Lubricant Viscosity and Friction Modifiers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, Joshua W.; Zhou, Yan; Qu, Jun

2016-10-08

A series of highly branched polyethylenes (BPE) were prepared and used in a Group I base oil as potential viscosity and friction modifiers. The lubricating performance of these BPEs supports the expected dual functionality. Changes in polarity, topology, and molecular weight of the BPEs showed significant effects on the lubricants’ performance, which provide scientific insights for polymer design in future lubricant development.

Exploring Students' Learning Needs: Expectation and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poedjiastutie, Dwi; Oliver, Rhonda

2017-01-01

Needs analysis is not new in education or academic circles. Many scholars and educators in different parts of the world see this approach as a valuable tool for program development and review as it is a mechanism that can be used to link the students' present academic learning with their future needs. This is also true with respect to language…

It's Not Just the Leader's Vision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kouzes, James M.; Posner, Barry Z.

2008-01-01

At some point during all this talk over the years about the importance of being future-oriented, leaders got the sense that they were the ones that had to be the visionaries. Often with the encouragement of a lot of leadership developers, leaders came to assume that if others expected them to be forward-looking, then they had to go off all alone…

Operational Agility (La Maniabilite Operationnelle)

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-01

the use of attitude projection 171. The procedure described above is schematically shown in figure 2.10. i Maneuvers...with the performance margins expected of future projects . (9,15) The agility factor concept was developed from that described in Reference 12 and...and in support of , a land battle between enemy forces. The nature of the combined arms battlefield and the terrain and environmental

A Real-Time Spoken-Language System for Interactive Problem Solving

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-05-01

a person number value N, which is the same as Russo , 1980), essentially meaning that all edges the person number value on the wh-bearing noun phrase...Thus, we expect to develop and evaluate our system in the future with the ATIS task 1/~hts- fio what-is-tw, A awe.m.the, show-me-all. show-me, which

Cognitive correlates of anxious and depressive symptomatology: an examination of the Helplessness/Hopelessness model.

PubMed

Waikar, S V; Craske, M G

1997-01-01

Expectancies about future life events were assessed in anxious and depressed patients to test predictions of the Helplessness/Hopelessness model of anxiety and depression (Alloy, Kelly, Mineka, & Clements, 1990). In addition to expectancies for future events, patients from affective and anxiety treatment clinics completed anxiety and depression symptom ratings and positive and negative affects scales. Findings revealed partial support for the model. Negative outcome and helplessness expectancies were related specifically to depression. Cognitions regarding future positive events were interrelated and associated with symptom measures more strongly than were cognitions regarding negative events. Additionally, positive affects was more strongly related to depression than to anxiety symptom ratings. Implications and limitations of these findings are discussed.

Medical Grade Water Generation for Intravenous Fluid Production on Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niederhaus, Charles E.; Barlow, Karen L.; Griffin, DeVon W.; Miller, Fletcher J.

2008-01-01

This document describes the intravenous (IV) fluids requirements for medical care during NASA s future Exploration class missions. It further discusses potential methods for generating such fluids and the challenges associated with different fluid generation technologies. The current Exploration baseline mission profiles are introduced, potential medical conditions described and evaluated for fluidic needs, and operational issues assessed. Conclusions on the fluid volume requirements are presented, and the feasibility of various fluid generation options are discussed. A separate report will document a more complete trade study on the options to provide the required fluids.At the time this document was developed, NASA had not yet determined requirements for medical care during Exploration missions. As a result, this study was based on the current requirements for care onboard the International Space Station (ISS). While we expect that medical requirements will be different for Exploration missions, this document will provide a useful baseline for not only developing hardware to generate medical water for injection (WFI), but as a foundation for meeting future requirements. As a final note, we expect WFI requirements for Exploration will be higher than for ISS care, and system capacity may well need to be higher than currently specified.

Economic and societal dimensions of nanotechnology-enabled drug delivery.

PubMed

te Kulve, Haico; Rip, Arie

2013-05-01

There is an increasing interest in nanotechnology-enabled drug delivery systems which are expected to have significant impacts for health care. The economic and societal aspects are uncertain, even ambiguous, at this stage of development, and often not addressed, or only as part of the promises about present options. In our review we will report on assessments of actors regarding economic and societal aspects and, occasionally, of expected impacts. Topics discussed include: present and future markets of nano-enabled drug delivery, industry dynamics, regulation, cost-effectiveness, and broader ethical issues. We also include a brief discussion of anticipatory activities of actors who are concerned about these aspects. Performance of nano-enabled drug delivery, a necessary step to have future impacts at all, needs to be improved further, and in interaction with demands of users along the product value chain and with further stakeholder such as regulatory agencies and health insurers. When supported by analysis of societal embedding of new products and scenarios, this allows relevant societal and economic aspects to be taken into account at an early stage. A key issue in realizing impacts will be liability, and roles and responsibilities of technology developers and stakeholders more generally.

Stem cell roadmap - The industrial point of view.

PubMed

Elzaabi, Mazen; Thevenin, Agnès; Lirsac, Pierre-Noël

2017-01-01

CELLforCURE is a French Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) dedicated to industrialization and process development for routine manufacturing, GMP manufacturing for clinical and commercial batches and regulatory services and associated logistics. CELLforCURE is a subsidiary of LFB Group.Stem cells fields of application gather cell and gene therapy as well as tissue engineering. According to VisionGain survey, cell therapy medicinal products will remain predominant in the future.Clinical trials are sponsored either by universities or private companies. Most of clinical trials are performed in oncology (53%). More than 100 clinical trials are currently performed in France, involving 36 products in clinical phases II or II/III.Tomorrow's regenerative medicine will be organ reconstruction using scaffolds and bioprinting technologies. The expected applications in the near future could be skin, cornea, blood vessels, retina, urethra and trachea. There are still important issues to overcome: create the vasculature and neuron connection.Solutions are expected regarding I) fundamental biology, in particular better understanding of IPS behavior and metabolism, precursor differentiation conditions, sustainability of induced genetic changes, II) technical approaches which involves injectable preservation medium, high density cells and centrifugation system.

Cancer and heart attack survivors' expectations of employment status: results from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

PubMed

Duijts, Saskia F A; van der Beek, Allard J; Bleiker, Eveline M A; Smith, Lee; Wardle, Jane

2017-08-07

Sociodemographic, health- and work-related factors have been found to influence return to work in cancer survivors. It is feasible though that behavioural factors, such as expectation of being at work, could also affect work-related outcomes. Therefore, the effect of earlier identified factors and expectation of being at work on future employment status in cancer survivors was explored. To assess the degree to which these factors specifically concern cancer survivors, a comparison with heart attack survivors was made. Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were used. Cancer and heart attack survivors of working age in the UK were included and followed up for 2 years. Baseline characteristics of both cancer and heart attack survivors were compared regarding employment status. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed in survivors at work, and the interaction between independent variables and diagnose group was assessed. In cancer survivors at work (N = 159), alcohol consumption, participating in moderate or vigorous sport activities, general health and participation were univariate associated with employment status at two-year follow-up. Only fair general health (compared to very good general health) remained statistically significant in the multivariate model (OR 0.31; 95% CI 0.13-0.76; p = 0.010). In heart attack survivors at work (N = 78), gender, general health and expectation of being at work were univariate associated with employment status at follow-up. Female gender (OR 0.03; 95% CI 0.00-0.57; p = 0.018) and high expectation of being at work (OR 10.68; 95% CI 1.23-93.92; p = 0.033) remained significant in the multivariate model. The influence of gender (p = 0.066) and general health (p = 0.020) regarding employment status was found to differ significantly between cancer and heart attack survivors. When predicting future employment status in cancer survivors in the UK, general health is the most relevant factor to consider. While expectation of being at work did not show any significant influence in cancer survivors, in heart attack survivors, it should not be disregarded though, when developing interventions to affect their employment status. Future research should focus on more specific measures for expectation, and additional behavioural factors, such as self-efficacy, and their effect on employment status.

Associations between extreme precipitation and acute gastro-intestinal illness due to cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in an urban Canadian drinking water system (1997-2009).

PubMed

Chhetri, Bimal K; Takaro, Tim K; Balshaw, Robert; Otterstatter, Michael; Mak, Sunny; Lem, Marcus; Zubel, Marc; Lysyshyn, Mark; Clarkson, Len; Edwards, Joanne; Fleury, Manon D; Henderson, Sarah B; Galanis, Eleni

2017-10-01

Drinking water related infections are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Understanding the current links between these infections and environmental factors is vital to understand and reduce the future burden of illness. We investigated the relationship between weekly reported cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis (n = 7,422), extreme precipitation (>90th percentile), drinking water turbidity, and preceding dry periods in a drinking water system located in greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1997-2009) using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality, secular trend, and the effect of holidays on reporting. We found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis 4-6 weeks after extreme precipitation. The effect was greater following a dry period. Similarly, extreme precipitation led to significantly increased turbidity only after prolonged dry periods. Our results suggest that the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis increases with extreme precipitation, and that the effects are more pronounced after a prolonged dry period. Given that extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with climate change, it is important to further understand the risks from these events, develop planning tools, and build resilience to these future risks.

Boon and Bane of Being Sure: The Effect of Performance Certainty and Expectancy on Task Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schindler, Simon; Reinhard, Marc-André; Dickhäuser, Oliver

2016-01-01

Previous research has suggested certainty to be an important factor when investigating effects of level of expectancies on future behavior. With the present study, we addressed the interplay of expectancy certainty and level of expectancies regarding task performance. We assumed that certain performance expectancies provide a better basis for the…

When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analyzing Whether Countries Are Equally Efficient at Improving Longevity for Men and Women

PubMed Central

Nandi, Arijit; Mendoza Rodríguez, José M.; Heymann, Jody

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined the efficiency of country-specific health care spending in improving life expectancies for men and women. Methods. We estimated efficiencies of health care spending for 27 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries during the period 1991 to 2007 using multivariable regression models, including country fixed-effects and controlling for time-varying levels of national social expenditures, economic development, and health behaviors. Results. Findings indicated robust differences in health-spending efficiency. A 1% annual increase in health expenditures was associated with percent changes in life expectancy ranging from 0.020 in the United States (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.008, 0.032) to 0.121 in Germany (95% CI = 0.099, 0.143). Health-spending increases were associated with greater life expectancy improvements for men than for women in nearly every OECD country. Conclusions. This is the first study to our knowledge to estimate the effect of country-specific health expenditures on life expectancies of men and women. Future work understanding the determinants of these differences has the potential to improve the overall efficiency and equity of national health systems. PMID:24328639

Introduction of home electronics for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimoto, Hideyuki; Shirai, Iwao

Development of electronics has accelerated the automation and labor saving at factories and offices. Home electronics is also expected to be needed more and more in Japan towards the 21st century, as the advanced information society and the elderly society will be accelerated, and women's participation in social affairs will be increased. Resources Council, which is the advisory organ of the Minister of State for Science and Technology, forecast to what extent home electronics will be popularized by the year of 2010. The Council expected to promote home electronics, because resource and energy saving should be accelerated and people should enjoy much more their individual lives at home.

Determining a one-tailed upper limit for future sample relative reproducibility standard deviations.

PubMed

McClure, Foster D; Lee, Jung K

2006-01-01

A formula was developed to determine a one-tailed 100p% upper limit for future sample percent relative reproducibility standard deviations (RSD(R),%= 100s(R)/y), where S(R) is the sample reproducibility standard deviation, which is the square root of a linear combination of the sample repeatability variance (s(r)2) plus the sample laboratory-to-laboratory variance (s(L)2), i.e., S(R) = s(L)2, and y is the sample mean. The future RSD(R),% is expected to arise from a population of potential RSD(R),% values whose true mean is zeta(R),% = 100sigmaR, where sigmaR and mu are the population reproducibility standard deviation and mean, respectively.

Platelet receptors as therapeutic targets: Past, present and future.

PubMed

Jamasbi, Janina; Ayabe, Keng; Goto, Shinya; Nieswandt, Bernhard; Peter, Karlheinz; Siess, Wolfgang

2017-06-28

Anti-platelet drugs reduce arterial thrombosis after plaque rupture and erosion, prevent stent thrombosis and are used to prevent and treat myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke. Some of them may also be helpful in treating less frequent diseases such as thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura. The present concise review aims to cover current and future developments of anti-platelet drugs interfering with the interaction of von Willebrand factor (VWF) with glycoprotein (GP) Ibα, and directed against GPVI, GPIIb/IIIa (integrin α IIb β 3 ), the thrombin receptor PAR-1, and the ADP receptor P2Y 12 . The high expectations of having novel antiplatelet drugs which selectively inhibit arterial thrombosis without interfering with normal haemostasis could possibly be met in the near future.

Future exploration of Venus (post-Pioneer Venus 1978)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colin, L.; Evans, L. C.; Greeley, R.; Quaide, W. L.; Schaupp, R. W.; Seiff, A.; Young, R. E.

1976-01-01

A comprehensive study was performed to determine the major scientific unknowns about the planet Venus to be expected in the post-Pioneer Venus 1978 time frame. Based on those results the desirability of future orbiters, atmospheric entry probes, balloons, and landers as vehicles to address the remaining scientific questions were studied. The recommended mission scenario includes a high resolution surface mapping radar orbiter mission for the 1981 launch opportunity, a multiple-lander mission for 1985 and either an atmospheric entry probe or balloon mission in 1988. All the proposed missions can be performed using proposed space shuttle upper stage boosters. Significant amounts of long-lead time supporting research and technology developments are required to be initiated in the near future to permit the recommended launch dates.

Development and Validation of the Controller Acceptance Rating Scale (CARS): Results of Empirical Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Katharine K.; Kerns, Karol; Bone, Randall

2001-01-01

The measurement of operational acceptability is important for the development, implementation, and evolution of air traffic management decision support tools. The Controller Acceptance Rating Scale was developed at NASA Ames Research Center for the development and evaluation of the Passive Final Approach Spacing Tool. CARS was modeled after a well-known pilot evaluation rating instrument, the Cooper-Harper Scale, and has since been used in the evaluation of the User Request Evaluation Tool, developed by MITRE's Center for Advanced Aviation System Development. In this paper, we provide a discussion of the development of CARS and an analysis of the empirical data collected with CARS to examine construct validity. Results of intraclass correlations indicated statistically significant reliability for the CARS. From the subjective workload data that were collected in conjunction with the CARS, it appears that the expected set of workload attributes was correlated with the CARS. As expected, the analysis also showed that CARS was a sensitive indicator of the impact of decision support tools on controller operations. Suggestions for future CARS development and its improvement are also provided.

High resolution observations using adaptive optics: Achievements and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankarasubramanian, K.; Rimmele, T.

2008-06-01

Over the last few years, several interesting observations were obtained with the help of solar Adaptive Optics (AO). In this paper, few observations made using the solar AO are enlightened and briefly discussed. A list of disadvantages with the current AO system are presented. With telescopes larger than 1.5 m expected during the next decade, there is a need to develop the existing AO technologies for large aperture telescopes. Some aspects of this development are highlighted. Finally, the recent AO developments in India are also presented.

Music cognition as mental time travel.

PubMed

Bailes, Freya; Dean, Roger T; Pearce, Marcus T

2013-01-01

As we experience a temporal flux of events our expectations of future events change. Such expectations seem to be central to our perception of affect in music, but we have little understanding of how expectations change as recent information is integrated. When music establishes a pitch centre (tonality), we rapidly learn to anticipate its continuation. What happens when anticipations are challenged by new events? Here we show that providing a melodic challenge to an established tonality leads to progressive changes in the impact of the features of the stimulus on listeners' expectations. The results demonstrate that retrospective analysis of recent events can establish new patterns of expectation that converge towards probabilistic interpretations of the temporal stream. These studies point to wider applications of understanding the impact of information flow on future prediction and its behavioural utility.

The Observed Longitudinal Relationship between Future Orientation and Substance Use Among a Cohort of Youth with Serious Criminal Offenses.

PubMed

Brooks, Merrian; Miller, Elizabeth; Abebe, Kaleab; Mulvey, Edward

2018-03-06

Future orientation (FO), an essential construct in youth development, encompassing goals, expectations for life, and ability to plan for the future. This study uses a multidimensional measure of future orientation to assess the relationship between change in future orientation and change in substance use over time. Data were from the Pathways to Desistence study. Justice involved youth (n = 1,354), ages 14 to 18 at time of recruitment, completed interviews every six months for three years. Multiple measures were chosen a priori as elements of future orientation. After evaluating the psychometrics of a new measure for future orientation, we ran mixed effects cross-lagged panel models to assess the relationship between changes in future orientation and substance use (tobacco, marijuana, hard drugs, and alcohol). There was a significant bidirectional relationship between future orientation and all substance use outcomes. Adjusted models accounted for different sites, sex, age, ethnicity, parental education, and proportion of time spent in a facility. In adjusted models, higher levels of future orientation resulted in smaller increases in substance use at future time points. Future orientation and substance use influence each other in this sample of adolescent offenders. Treating substance use disorders is also likely to increase future orientation, promoting positive youth development more generally. This study expands our understanding of the longitudinal relationship between changes in future orientation and changes in levels of substance use in a sample of justice involved youth with high levels of substance use, a group of considerable clinical and policy interest.

Financial aspects and the future of the pharmaceutical industry in the United States of america.

PubMed

Karamehic, Jasenko; Ridic, Ognjen; Ridic, Goran; Jukic, Tomislav; Coric, Jozo; Subasic, Djemo; Panjeta, Mirsad; Saban, Aida; Zunic, Lejla; Masic, Izet

2013-12-01

The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as "companies engaged in researching, developing, manufacturing and marketing of medicines and biological for human or veterinary use". Besides its main role in improving human health, the US pharmaceutical industry represents one of the most critical, key decision makers' lobbying prone and competitive sectors in the economy. The cost in the environment of very limited government price regulation remains one of the major problems fuelling aggregate health care cost inflation. Pharmaceuticals have created huge benefits for public health and economic productivity by the means of saving lives, increasing life expectancy, reducing illness related suffering, preventing surgeries and decreasing hospital stays. The goal of this review paper is to show the present conditions and future trends of the pharmaceutical industry in the U.S. THIS PAPER REPRESENTS A THOROUGH LITERATURE REVIEW OF THE MULTIFACETED SOURCES INCLUDING: studies, books, peer reviewed journals, U.S. government sources (i.e. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, etc.). In the thirty years pharmaceutical companies have consistently developed and launched new medicines, bringing hope to sick or - at risk patients. They also usually provide above the average financial returns for its shareholders. U.S. pharmaceutical companies had as their goal to discover blockbuster drugs. Blockbuster drugs are generally defined as drugs that solve medical problems common to hundreds of millions of people and, at the same time generate large sales increases and profits for the pharmaceutical companies. The main approach of these companies includes huge investments in research and development (R&D), innovation, marketing and sales. The trend analysis shows that for the most part the era of blockbuster drugs is nearing an end. Numerous blockbuster drugs will be coming off patent in the next few years, opening the way to generics and eliminating a major source of the industry's profits. Still, there is plenty of room for improvement in the medications people take while there is no shortage of human suffering to alleviate. It is doubtful whether big pharmaceutical firms will be able to pursue these goals within the old model of developing exclusive new drugs that can be sold further in the future. In the past, medicines for the ailments that were never before addressed, like anti-cholesterol or anti-depression drugs were developed. Currently, and in the future, it is expected that only blockbuster modifications will be developed. This phenomenon is expected to create market saturation, which will significantly reduce profits. The business model that drove the major drug makers' success is not working anymore. Pharmaceutical companies must create new ways and to bring new ideas. The survivors will be those that market strategies supported by innovative approaches and winning capabilities.

Expecting the unexpected: applying the Develop-Distort Dilemma to maximize positive market impacts in health.

PubMed

Peters, David H; Paina, Ligia; Bennett, Sara

2012-10-01

Although health interventions start with good intentions to develop services for disadvantaged populations, they often distort the health market, making the delivery or financing of services difficult once the intervention is over: a condition called the 'Develop-Distort Dilemma' (DDD). In this paper, we describe how to examine whether a proposed intervention may develop or distort the health market. Our goal is to produce a tool that facilitates meaningful and systematic dialogue for practitioners and researchers to ensure that well-intentioned health interventions lead to productive health systems while reducing the undesirable distortions of such efforts. We apply the DDD tool to plan for development rather than distortions in health markets, using intervention research being conducted under the Future Health Systems consortium in Bangladesh, China and Uganda. Through a review of research proposals and interviews with principal investigators, we use the DDD tool to systematically understand how a project fits within the broader health market system, and to identify gaps in planning for sustainability. We found that while current stakeholders and funding sources for activities were easily identified, future ones were not. The implication is that the projects could raise community expectations that future services will be available and paid for, despite this actually being uncertain. Each project addressed the 'rules' of the health market system differently. The China research assesses changes in the formal financing rules, whereas Bangladesh and Uganda's projects involve influencing community level providers, where informal rules are more important. In each case, we recognize the importance of building trust between providers, communities and government officials. Each project could both develop and distort local health markets. Anyone intervening in the health market must recognize the main market perturbations, whether positive or negative, and manage them so as to maximize the benefits to the health system and population health.

Depression and prospection.

PubMed

Roepke, Ann Marie; Seligman, Martin E P

2016-03-01

Prospection, the mental representation of possible futures, is usually adaptive. When it goes awry, however, it disrupts emotion and motivation. A negative view of the future is typically seen as one symptom of depression, but we suggest that such negative prospection is the core causal element of depression. Here, we describe the empirical evidence supporting this framework, and we explore the implications for clinical interventions. We integrate several literatures: Using the database PsycInfo, we retrieved empirical studies with the keywords prospection, prediction, expectation, pessimism, mental simulation, future-thinking, future-directed thinking, foresight, and/or mental time travel, in conjunction with depression, depressed, or depressive. Three kinds of faulty prospection, taken together, could drive depression: Poor generation of possible futures, poor evaluation of possible futures, and negative beliefs about the future. Depressed mood and poor functioning, in turn, may maintain faulty prospection and feed a vicious cycle. Future-oriented treatment strategies drawn from cognitive-behavioural therapy help to fix poor prospection, and they deserve to be developed further. Prospection-based techniques may lead to transdiagnostic treatment strategies for depression and other disorders. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Expected Improvements in VLBI Measurements of the Earth's Orientation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Chopo

2003-01-01

Measurements of the Earth s orientation since the 1970s using space geodetic techniques have provided a continually expanding and improving data set for studies of the Earth s structure and the distribution of mass and angular momentum. The accuracy of current one-day measurements is better than 100 microarcsec for the motion of the pole with respect to the celestial and terrestrial reference frames and better than 3 microsec for the rotation around the pole. VLBI uniquely provides the three Earth orientation parameters (nutation and UTI) that relate the Earth to the extragalactic celestial reference frame. The accuracy and resolution of the VLBI Earth orientation time series can be expected to improve substantially in the near future because of refinements in the realization of the celestial reference frame, improved modeling of the troposphere and non-linear station motions, larger observing networks, optimized scheduling, deployment of disk-based Mark V recorders, full use of Mark IV capabilities, and e-VLBI. More radical future technical developments will be discussed.

[Global environment and health--with emphasis on world nutritional status].

PubMed

Suzuki, T

1993-12-01

Forthcoming global environmental changes threaten to endanger human survival through direct and indirect influences. In this paper, the contemporary world food supply situation and resultant nutritional status was first reviewed on by country and region. When compared with the nutritional energy requirement, countries with an inadequate food supply were concentrated in the developing world, in particular in some parts of Africa. The life expectancy at birth is clearly shorter in such countries, and peoples of African countries with an inadequate food supply have shorter life expectancies than other countries with a similar inadequacy. Global warning is likely to decrease food production in some parts of the world. According to the present estimation using various methods, a future crisis of food production may occur in African countries which are at present most vulnerable to food shortages, as well as in countries which are presently food exporters. Thus, a future crisis of human health conditions caused by the imbalance of food production and trade may be least avoidable in the region of present predicament.

The moral obligation to create children with the best chance of the best life.

PubMed

Savulescu, Julian; Kahane, Guy

2009-06-01

According to what we call the Principle of Procreative Beneficence (PB),couples who decide to have a child have a significant moral reason to select the child who, given his or her genetic endowment, can be expected to enjoy the most well-being. In the first part of this paper, we introduce PB,explain its content, grounds, and implications, and defend it against various objections. In the second part, we argue that PB is superior to competing principles of procreative selection such as that of procreative autonomy.In the third part of the paper, we consider the relation between PB and disability. We develop a revisionary account of disability, in which disability is a species of instrumental badness that is context- and person-relative.Although PB instructs us to aim to reduce disability in future children whenever possible, it does not privilege the normal. What matters is not whether future children meet certain biological or statistical norms, but what level of well-being they can be expected to have.

Human Factors in the Design of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Mihriban; Byrne, Vicky; Holden, Kritina

2007-01-01

NASA s Space Exploration vision for humans to venture to the moon and beyond provides interesting human factors opportunities and challenges. The Human Engineering group at NASA has been involved in the initial phases of development of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), Orion. Getting involved at the ground level, Human Factors engineers are beginning to influence design; this involvement is expected to continue throughout the development lifecycle. The information presented here describes what has been done to date, what is currently going on, and what is expected in the future. During Phase 1, prior to the contract award to Lockheed Martin, the Human Engineering group was involved in generating requirements, conducting preliminary task analyses based on interviews with subject matter experts in all vehicle systems areas, and developing preliminary concepts of operations based on the task analysis results. In addition, some early evaluations to look at CEV net habitable volume were also conducted. The program is currently in Phase 2, which is broken down into design cycles, including System Readiness Review, Preliminary Design Review, and Critical Design Review. Currently, there are ongoing Human Engineering Technical Interchange Meetings being held with both NASA and Lockheed Martin in order to establish processes, desired products, and schedules. Multiple design trades and quick-look evaluations (e.g. display device layout and external window size) are also in progress. Future Human Engineering activities include requirement verification assessments and crew/stakeholder evaluations of increasing fidelity. During actual flights of the CEV, the Human Engineering group is expected to be involved in in-situ testing and lessons learned reporting, in order to benefit human space flight beyond the initial CEV program.

What Can the U.S. Learn from National Health Accounting Elsewhere?

PubMed Central

Berman, Peter

1999-01-01

The United States is typically seen as an outlier in health spending when compared with other advanced nations. Recent improvements in health accounting in lower- and middle-income countries suggest some common features with the high and pluralistic spending in the United States. The author discusses recent developments and findings in health accounting outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and their relevance for the United States. He argues that we should expect more fruitful exchanges in the future. PMID:11481785

University-Private Sector Research Partnerships in the Innovation Ecosystem

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

private sector . There are several trends that PCAST considers to fall specifically within context of university- private sector research partnerships. The first is the growing imbalance between the academic research capacity and the Federal research budget. The second development is the reduction in basic research performed by the industrial sector. Private foundations are expanding their capacity to fund research, a trend expected to be important in the future. Lastly, the accelerating speed of technological development requires new methods of

Laundering in space - A summary of recent developments.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houck, O. K.; Symons, J. J.

1973-01-01

Clothing must be washed and reused on future long duration space missions to maintain personal hygiene without severe weight penalties of stored clothing. Laundering equipment that may operate in the absence of gravity is being developed. Weight savings expected from this equipment are illustrated in this paper that describes a six-man combined clothes washer/dryer engineering prototype. Also included in the paper is the rationale used in selecting the final prototype design as well as a discussion of major factors affecting design and performance.

Harrier Information Management System (HIMS): The system and the approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, D. J.

1990-01-01

The Harrier GR5 is to be fleet-fitted with an engine monitoring system. The ground station known as HIMS was developed to enable engineers to analyze parameter exceedance and component life count data collected from it. The HIMS and its development program are reviewed. Counts can vary from aircraft to aircraft for a given number of flying hours and lifting on this basis is expected to yield considerable savings. Aspects relevant to future aircraft health monitoring programs are considered.

For better and for worse: the relationship between future expectations and functioning in the second half of life.

PubMed

Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Spalter, Tal; Kavé, Gitit; Shmotkin, Dov

2011-03-01

To examine age group differences in the relationship between future expectations about standards of living and physical, mental, and cognitive functioning in the second half of life. Data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (N=27,687, mean age=64.44). First, with increasing age, the expectation to improve (ETI) and the expectation to worsen (ETW) in standards of living became more independent of each other. Second, with increasing age, ETI was less strongly correlated with functioning whereas ETW was more strongly correlated with it. Third, with increasing age, the relationship between ETI and functioning was more strongly moderated by ETW, so that adaptive functioning was associated with expectations that no major change is to occur and with expectations for both growth and decline. Late-life positive and negative expectancies are less interdependent than they are in younger age, probably due to their stronger interaction when associating with functioning. Expectancies interact either to reflect an attempt to preserve the functional status quo (low expectancy to improve and to decline) or may signal a highly complex mental organization (high expectancy to improve and to decline).

For Better and for Worse: The Relationship between Future Expectations and Functioning in the Second Half of Life

PubMed Central

Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Spalter, Tal; Kavé, Gitit; Shmotkin, Dov

2011-01-01

Objectives. To examine age group differences in the relationship between future expectations about standards of living and physical, mental, and cognitive functioning in the second half of life. Method. Data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (N = 27,687, mean age = 64.44). Results. First, with increasing age, the expectation to improve (ETI) and the expectation to worsen (ETW) in standards of living became more independent of each other. Second, with increasing age, ETI was less strongly correlated with functioning whereas ETW was more strongly correlated with it. Third, with increasing age, the relationship between ETI and functioning was more strongly moderated by ETW, so that adaptive functioning was associated with expectations that no major change is to occur and with expectations for both growth and decline. Discussion. Late-life positive and negative expectancies are less interdependent than they are in younger age, probably due to their stronger interaction when associating with functioning. Expectancies interact either to reflect an attempt to preserve the functional status quo (low expectancy to improve and to decline) or may signal a highly complex mental organization (high expectancy to improve and to decline). PMID:21296870

Future Sex Educator Perceptions of Rural versus Urban Instruction: A Case for Community-Centered Sexual Health Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Christina L.; Jensen, Robin E.; Selzer King, Abigail

2014-01-01

Instructors of sexual health courses in rural areas face unique challenges as they are often forced to use school-based prevention curricula field-tested in urban areas. Research has yet to consider what future sex educators' regional expectations are for their profession and how those expectations might have an impact on the classroom. Drawing…

The Relations of Stressful Events and Nonacademic Future Expectations in African American Adolescents: Gender Differences in Parental Monitoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Michael; Mars, Dustin E.; Burns, Lateela J.

2012-01-01

Urban African American high school students (N = 206) completed a study to examine gender differences in parental monitoring and the effect on the relationship between exposure to stressful life events and nonacademic future expectations. Participant's ages range from 13 to 18 (M = 15.78, SD = 1.19). Participants reported high exposure to…

"Doesn't Everyone Want That? It's Just a Given": Swedish Emerging Adults' Expectations on Future Parenthood and Work/Family Priorities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frisén, Ann; Carlsson, Johanna; Wängqvist, Maria

2014-01-01

This study investigated Swedish emerging adults' expectations on future parenthood through interviews with 124 Swedish emerging adults who were not yet parents. Thematic analysis showed that most participants were sure they wanted to become parents, but not right now. First, they wanted a stable financial situation, a romantic relationship, and…

University education in the Geosciences reflections on the past, the present, and the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, J. T.

2003-04-01

The geosciences are a broad area of sciences with a long and rich history. The founders of the geosciences were the "natural philosophers" of the late Renaissance. These pioneering scientists -- Ben Franklin being a good example -- took a holistic view of the Earth and did not distinguish formal disciplinary boundaries. The disciplines that we know today - geology, meteorology, and oceanography, each with myriad specialty areas - developed through the course of the 19th and early 20th centuries. This separation of disciplines was probably to be expected, given the need for concentrated focus on aspects of the Earth and its processes to develop basic knowledge, useful tools, and information for industrial applications. Each discipline developed its own characteristics and tradition that colored and shaped its further growth - geology, for example, has long been associated with the extractive industries, while meteorology has a strong emphasis on prediction of hazardous weather. However, in the closing decades of the 20th century, this situation began to change. Motivated in part by development of capabilities to observe Earth and other planets from space vehicles and in part by a growing interest in problems (such as Earth's climate) that did not fit in any one of the traditional areas, it became apparent that the geoscience disciplines needed to become more closely linked, both among themselves and with the life sciences. This has given rise to new efforts such as "Earth System Science" and "biogeosciences" that are working to integrate and extend knowledge from the traditional disciplines to improve humankind's understanding of Planet Earth. This talk will explore how the history sketched above is reflected in our educational structures and processes, and in our expectations of what students are expected to come to know, understand, and be able to do through a course of university study. I will argue that all the geosciences disciplines are in the midst of a major transition, evolving from a largely descriptive, qualitative past into a quantitative future that is as yet very unclear. Constraints on the amount of time a student can spend in the university (nominally four years for a first degree in the U.S.), the explosion in knowledge about the Earth, and the rise of a broad range of companion technologies - computers of all forms, GIS, GPS, telecommunications, "smart" analytical instruments -- are significant challenges in themselves to today's academic programs. However, expectations of government, students and their parents, and prospective employers (including academia itself) are also proving to be major challenges to those attempting to develop programs for students. I will close by speculating a bit on what the future may hold for students, academicians, and universities.

Green micro-resistojet research at Delft University of Technology: new options for Cubesat propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cervone, A.; Zandbergen, B.; Guerrieri, D. C.; De Athayde Costa e Silva, M.; Krusharev, I.; van Zeijl, H.

2017-03-01

The aerospace industry is recently expressing a growing interest in green, safe and non-toxic propellants for the propulsion systems of the new generation of space vehicles, which is especially true in the case of Cubesat micro-propulsion systems. Demanding requirements are associated to the future missions and challenges offered by this class of spacecraft, where the availability of a propulsion system might open new possibilities for a wide range of applications including orbital maintenance and transfer, formation flying and attitude control. To accomplish these requirements, Delft University of Technology is currently developing two different concepts of water-propelled micro-thrusters based on MEMS technologies: a free molecular micro-resistojet operating with sublimating solid water (ice) at low plenum gas pressure of less than 600 Pa, and a more conventional micro-resistojet operating with liquid water heated and vaporized by means of a custom designed silicon heating chamber. In this status review paper, the current design and future expected developments of the two micro-propulsion concepts is presented and discussed, together with an initial analysis of the expected performance and potential operational issues. Results of numerical simulations conducted to optimize the design of the heating and expansion slots, as well as a detailed description of the manufacturing steps for the conventional micro-resistojet concept, are presented. Some intended steps for future research activities, including options for thrust intensity and direction control, are briefly introduced.

Cancer incidence in English children, adolescents and young people: past trends and projections to 2030

PubMed Central

Pesola, Francesca; Ferlay, Jacques; Sasieni, Peter

2017-01-01

Background: Estimating the future incidence of cancer is important to establish sufficient service provision, however, work in this area is limited for cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults (aged 0–24). Methods: Age-period-cohort models were applied to cancer incidence rates for the period 1971–2013 in England. This allowed us to extrapolate past trends to 2030. We used the appropriate cancer classification developed for cancers in children and young adults, which are analysed as two separate groups to capture inherent differences. Results: The data set consisted of 119 485 records (55% among 15+ years group). Overall, cancer rates have increased over time and are expected to continue to rise into the future. Of particular interest is the increase in rates of germ cell tumours (in males) and carcinomas (in females) in young adults, since their rates are projected to further increase over time. Conclusions: The estimated future incidence rates provide a baseline for different cancer subtypes, which will allow policymakers to develop a contingency plan to deal with future demands. PMID:29096400

Sad mood promotes self-initiated mental contrasting of future and reality.

PubMed

Kappes, Heather Barry; Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Maglio, Sam

2011-10-01

Self-regulation by mentally contrasting a positive future with negative reality leads people to differentiate in their goal commitments: They commit to goals when expectations of success are high and let go when expectations of success are low. On the contrary, when indulging in the positive future or dwelling on negative reality, people fail to consider expectations of success and do not form selective goal commitments (Oettingen, Pak, & Schnetter, 2001). Whereas prior research has examined the effects of experimentally induced mental contrasting, we address sad mood as a contextual influence promoting self-initiated mental contrasting. Across various mood inductions, sad moods--which are associated with problem solving strategies--facilitated self-initiated mental contrasting more than neutral moods (Studies 1, 5) or happy moods (Studies 2, 3, 4, 6). Importantly, mood did not affect the relation between mental contrasting and selective formation of goal commitment (Studies 5, 6). The results suggest that sad moods aid in self-regulation by making people self-initiate goal commitments that are sensitive to their expectations of success.

Delaying investments in sensor technology: The rationality of dairy farmers' investment decisions illustrated within the framework of real options theory.

PubMed

Rutten, C J; Steeneveld, W; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Hogeveen, H

2018-05-02

The adoption rate of sensors on dairy farms varies widely. Whereas some sensors are hardly adopted, others are adopted by many farmers. A potential rational explanation for the difference in adoption may be the expected future technological progress in the sensor technology and expected future improved decision support possibilities. For some sensors not much progress can be expected because the technology has already made enormous progress in recent years, whereas for sensors that have only recently been introduced on the market, much progress can be expected. The adoption of sensors may thus be partly explained by uncertainty about the investment decision, in which uncertainty lays in the future performance of the sensors and uncertainty about whether improved informed decision support will become available. The overall aim was to offer a plausible example of why a sensor may not be adopted now. To explain this, the role of uncertainty about technological progress in the investment decision was illustrated for highly adopted sensors (automated estrus detection) and hardly adopted sensors (automated body condition score). This theoretical illustration uses the real options theory, which accounts for the role of uncertainty in the timing of investment decisions. A discrete event model, simulating a farm of 100 dairy cows, was developed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of investing now and investing in 5 yr in both sensor systems. The results show that investing now in automated estrus detection resulted in a higher NPV than investing 5 yr from now, whereas for the automated body condition score postponing the investment resulted in a higher NPV compared with investing now. These results are in line with the observation that farmers postpone investments in sensors. Also, the current high adoption of automated estrus detection sensors can be explained because the NPV of investing now is higher than the NPV of investing in 5 yr. The results confirm that uncertainty about future sensor performance and uncertainty about whether improved decision support will become available play a role in investment decisions. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lumber and panel products consumption for packaging and shipping in the United States, perspective for the 1980`s

Treesearch

D. B. McKeever; H. E. Dickerhoof

Trends in demand for lumber and panel products in packaging and materials handling are examined both for the past and the future. Effects of recent technological developments and innovations such as molded particleboard pallets, medium-density fiberboard pallets, and plywood pallets, are analyzed. Increased use of pallets is seen as the main reason for the expected...

The Space Factor--fundamental and applied research benefiting Europe's citizens and economy.

PubMed

Heppener, M

2002-08-01

Although "made in space" products are not expected to appear in the near-future, space is gaining interest as an area for industrial or applied R&D. ESA is supporting a growing number of projects involving non-space industries and other third parties. This article gives an overview of the potential of research in space to develop valuable applications on Earth.

2016 Summer Series - Kenneth Cheung: Building Blocks for Aerospace Structures

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-06-16

Strong, ultra-lightweight materials are expected to play a key role in the design of future aircraft and space vehicles. Lower structural mass leads to improved performance, maneuverability, efficiency, range and payload capacity. Dr. Kenneth Cheung is developing cellular composite building blocks, or digital materials, to create transformable aerostructures. In his presentation, Dr. Cheung will discuss the implications of the digital materials and morphing structures.

The Future of a Mistake: Will Discrepancy Measurement Continue to Make the Learning Disabilities Field a Pseudoscience?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanovich, Keith E.

2005-01-01

Imagine a current HMO that covered only the procedures and diseases recognized by the medical profession in 1950. The thought is ridiculous because in such a rapidly developing field as medicine, no one would expect practice to be frozen at the level of scientific knowledge attained 50 years ago. The author believes this is what has happened in…

Use Trends Indicated by Statistically Calibrated Recreational Sites in the National Forest System

Treesearch

Gary L. Tyre

1971-01-01

Trends in statistically sampled use of developed sites in the National Forest system indicate an average annual increase of 6.0 percent in the period 1966-69. The high variability of the measure precludes its use for projecting expected future use, but it can be important in gauging the credibility of annual use changes at both sampled and unsampled locations.

Current Perception of Telemedicine in an EU Country

PubMed Central

POENARU, Calin; POENARU, Elena; VINEREANU, Dragos

2014-01-01

Objectives: To assess the perception and expectation of beneficiaries and providers of telemedicine services in Romania. Methods: Interview (on-line and face-to-face) of 109 representatives of medical community, from two categories: physicians, involved directly in the patient care, and medical and information technology directors of state and private owned clinics and hospitals. A third group, formed by executives from main technology service provider companies, was added in order to expand the results with their vision as potential suppliers of telemedicine projects. Outcomes: We evaluated 4 important aspects of telemedicine: actual status of the services, development efforts and allocated budget, expected future services, and stoppers and enablers. On the actual status we identified in 48% of the cases the existence of core services good enough to start advanced telemedicine services. We developed a metric (SOR = Supporter/Opponents Ratio) to evaluate the suitability of telemedicine services to evolve and to deliver on expectations. The analysis shows that physicians see potential for development for EHR and PACS (both with SOR >25), but the executives start looking forward to more advanced services like remote patient monitoring. Main impact is expected in collaboration and patient quality life areas and, by far, the main stoppers are reduced budgets and organizational problems to adapt to the new data models. Conclusions: We identified a strong support from the physicians related with the introduction of new type of healthcare services accompanied with high expectations. On the executive level, the expectations are different, ranging from low optimism on the technology side, to serious support on the medical side. However, there is a clear trend, able to create the first telemedicine services during the next years. PMID:25705307

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Fuel cell status -- 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hirschenhofer, J.H.

1995-12-31

Fuel cells are finally coming into their own. A world that 10 years ago was unaware of the concept can now witness approximately 200 of the units in operation in 15 countries. As a result, an increasing number of utility planners and decision makers are asking how do fuel cells fit into their future. While the fuel cell concept is simple, determining which type of fuel cell to use for stationary power generation may prove taxing. Admittedly, the complexity of fuel cell development coupled with the amount of subject material and claims-versus-reality may seem overwhelming. This paper is intended tomore » provide a road map of major fuel cell development in the United States, focusing on what has been done recently and what is expected in the near future.« less

Recent development in modeling and analysis of functionally graded materials and structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Ankit; Talha, Mohammad

2015-11-01

In this article, an extensive review related to the structural response of the functionally graded materials (FGMs) and structures have been presented. These are high technology materials developed by a group scientist in the late 1980's in Japan. The emphasis has been made here, to present the structural characteristics of FGMs plates/shells under thermo-electro-mechanical loadings under various boundary and environmental conditions. This paper also provides an overview of different fabrication procedures and the future research directions which is required to implement these materials in the design and analysis appropriately. The expected outcome of present review can be treated as milestone for future studies in the area of high technology materials and structures, and would be definitely advantageous for the researchers, scientists, and designers working in this field.

Wearable Sensors for Remote Health Monitoring.

PubMed

Majumder, Sumit; Mondal, Tapas; Deen, M Jamal

2017-01-12

Life expectancy in most countries has been increasing continually over the several few decades thanks to significant improvements in medicine, public health, as well as personal and environmental hygiene. However, increased life expectancy combined with falling birth rates are expected to engender a large aging demographic in the near future that would impose significant  burdens on the socio-economic structure of these countries. Therefore, it is essential to develop cost-effective, easy-to-use systems for the sake of elderly healthcare and well-being. Remote health monitoring, based on non-invasive and wearable sensors, actuators and modern communication and information technologies offers an efficient and cost-effective solution that allows the elderly to continue to live in their comfortable home environment instead of expensive healthcare facilities. These systems will also allow healthcare personnel to monitor important physiological signs of their patients in real time, assess health conditions and provide feedback from distant facilities. In this paper, we have presented and compared several low-cost and non-invasive health and activity monitoring systems that were reported in recent years. A survey on textile-based sensors that can potentially be used in wearable systems is also presented. Finally, compatibility of several communication technologies as well as future perspectives and research challenges in remote monitoring systems will be discussed.

Wearable Sensors for Remote Health Monitoring

PubMed Central

Majumder, Sumit; Mondal, Tapas; Deen, M. Jamal

2017-01-01

Life expectancy in most countries has been increasing continually over the several few decades thanks to significant improvements in medicine, public health, as well as personal and environmental hygiene. However, increased life expectancy combined with falling birth rates are expected to engender a large aging demographic in the near future that would impose significant  burdens on the socio-economic structure of these countries. Therefore, it is essential to develop cost-effective, easy-to-use systems for the sake of elderly healthcare and well-being. Remote health monitoring, based on non-invasive and wearable sensors, actuators and modern communication and information technologies offers an efficient and cost-effective solution that allows the elderly to continue to live in their comfortable home environment instead of expensive healthcare facilities. These systems will also allow healthcare personnel to monitor important physiological signs of their patients in real time, assess health conditions and provide feedback from distant facilities. In this paper, we have presented and compared several low-cost and non-invasive health and activity monitoring systems that were reported in recent years. A survey on textile-based sensors that can potentially be used in wearable systems is also presented. Finally, compatibility of several communication technologies as well as future perspectives and research challenges in remote monitoring systems will be discussed. PMID:28085085

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

2017-09-01

Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

The development of intelligent healthcare in China.

PubMed

Zheng, Xiaochen; Rodríguez-Monroy, Carlos

2015-05-01

Intelligent healthcare (IH) is proposed with the fast application of Internet of Things technology in the healthcare area in recent years. It is considered as an expansion of e-health and telemedicine. As the largest developing country, China is investing large amounts of resources to push forward the development of IH. It is one of the centerpieces of the country's New Healthcare Reform, and great expectation is placed on it to help solve the conflict between limited healthcare resources and the large patient population. Essential policies, milestones, standards, and specifications from the Chinese government since the 1990s were reviewed to show the brief development history of IH in China. Some typical cases and products have been analyzed to present the current situation. The main problems and future development directions have been summarized. The IH industry in China has great potential and is growing very fast, but a lot of challenges also exist. In the future both government support and the active participation of nongovernmental capital are needed to push forward the whole industry.

Modeling College Major Choices using Elicited Measures of Expectations and Counterfactuals. NBER Working Paper No. 15729

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arcidiacono, Peter; Hotz, V. Joseph; Kang, Songman

2010-01-01

The choice of a college major plays a critical role in determining the future earnings of college graduates. Students make their college major decisions in part due to the future earnings streams associated with the different majors. We survey students about what their expected earnings would be both in the major they have chosen and in…

Career Info Quest: Using AASL Standards to Prepare Teens for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vent, Laura

2010-01-01

Any student will tell people that one question they've been asked repeatedly is "What do you want to be when you grow up?" From a young age, adults expect children to think about their future and to work toward a career goal. If teachers expect their students to be goal driven, career-oriented individuals, they need to provide them with ample…

Thinking Ahead: Improving Support for People with Learning Disabilities and Their Families to Plan for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Towers, Christine

2013-01-01

The increasing life expectancy of people with learning disabilities makes it imperative that families plan for the future. The number of people with learning disabilities over the age of 65 is predicted to double over the next two decades. The greatest increase in life expectancy will be amongst people with mild learning disabilities who will have…

eSACP - a new Nordic initiative towards developing statistical climate services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Thejll, Peter; Drews, Martin; Guttorp, Peter; Venälainen, Ari; Uotila, Petteri; Benestad, Rasmus; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Madsen, Henrik; Fox Maule, Cathrine

2015-04-01

The Nordic research council NordForsk has recently announced its support for a new 3-year research initiative on "statistical analysis of climate projections" (eSACP). eSACP will focus on developing e-science tools and services based on statistical analysis of climate projections for the purpose of helping decision-makers and planners in the face of expected future challenges in regional climate change. The motivation behind the project is the growing recognition in our society that forecasts of future climate change is associated with various sources of uncertainty, and that any long-term planning and decision-making dependent on a changing climate must account for this. At the same time there is an obvious gap between scientists from different fields and between practitioners in terms of understanding how climate information relates to different parts of the "uncertainty cascade". In eSACP we will develop generic e-science tools and statistical climate services to facilitate the use of climate projections by decision-makers and scientists from all fields for climate impact analyses and for the development of robust adaptation strategies, which properly (in a statistical sense) account for the inherent uncertainty. The new tool will be publically available and include functionality to utilize the extensive and dynamically growing repositories of data and use state-of-the-art statistical techniques to quantify the uncertainty and innovative approaches to visualize the results. Such a tool will not only be valuable for future assessments and underpin the development of dedicated climate services, but will also assist the scientific community in making more clearly its case on the consequences of our changing climate to policy makers and the general public. The eSACP project is led by Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center, and also includes the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, the Technical University of Denmark and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway. This poster will present details of focus areas in the project and show some examples of the expected analysis tools.

Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change

DOE PAGES

Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah; ...

2015-08-09

Using a unique dataset for Indiana counties during the period 1995-2012, we estimate the effects of flood hazard, asset exposure, and social vulnerability on property damage. This relationship then is combined with the expected level of future flood risks to project property damage from flooding in 2030 under various scenarios. We compare these scenario projections to identify which risk management strategy offers the greatest potential to mitigate flooding loss. Results show that by 2030, county level flooding hazard measured by extreme flow volume and frequency will increase by an average of 16.2% and 7.4%, respectively. The total increase in propertymore » damages projected under different model specifications range from 13.3% to 20.8%. Across models future damages consistently exhibit the highest sensitivity to future increases in asset exposure, reinforcing the importance of non-structural measures in managing floodplain development.« less

At the precipice: a prospective exploration of medical students' expectations of the pre-clerkship to clerkship transition.

PubMed

Soo, Jason; Brett-MacLean, Pamela; Cave, Marie-Therese; Oswald, Anna

2016-03-01

Medical learners face many challenging transitions. We prospectively explored students' perceptions of their upcoming transition to clerkship and their future professional selves. In 2013, 160/165 end-of-second-year medical students wrote narrative reflections and 79/165 completed a questionnaire on their perceptions of their upcoming transition to clerkship. Narratives were separately analyzed by four authors and then discussed to identify a final thematic framework using parsimonious category construction. We identified two overarching themes: (1) "Looking back": experiences which had helped students feel prepared for clerkship with subthemes focused on of patient care, shadowing, classroom teaching and the pre-clerkship years as foundational knowledge, (2) "Looking forward": anticipating the clerkship experience and the journey of becoming a physician with subthemes focused on death and dying, hierarchy, work-life balance, interactions with patients, concerns about competency and career choice. Questionnaire data revealed incongruities around expectations of minimal exposure to death and dying, little need for independent study and limited direct patient responsibility. We confirmed that internal transformations are happening in contemplative time even before clerkship. By prospectively exploring pre-clerkship students' perceptions of the transition to clerkship training we identified expectations and misconceptions that could be addressed with future curricular interventions. While students are aware of and anticipating their learning needs it is not as clear that they realise how much their future learning will depend on their own inner resources. We suggest that more attention be paid to professional identity formation and the development of the physician as a person during these critical transitions.

A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Relationship among Adolescents' Perceived Social Support, Psychological State and Future Expectations among Turkish Students.

PubMed

Topaktaş, Berkhan; Dündar, Cihad; Pekşen, Yıldız

2017-01-01

Due to social and emotional changes alongside the cognitive and logical changes in adolescence, alterations occur in the adolescent's communication with family and friends in this period, and social support assumes greater importance. From each of the two middle and high schools in the Ilkadim district of Samsun, a total 688 students were employed by a two-stage sampling method in this cross-sectional study. The data were collected from sociodemographic information, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI) and Future Expectations Scale for Adolescents (FESA) questionnaires distributed under the supervision of guidance counselors in these schools between December 2014 and February 2015. The Mann- Whitney U test and Spearman's Rank Correlation were used for statistical analysis. The significance level was accepted as p<0.05 for all tests. In the study group, MSPSS Family subscale had a stronger correlational relationship with all the BSI subscales including global indices and also with total score of FESA and subscales with the exception of the Marriage and Family subscale than the other two MSPSS subscales. There were moderate negative correlation between scores of MSPSS and BSI, and a low-moderate positive correlation was observed between total MSPSS and FESA scores of adolescents. The results demonstrated that adolescents who exercise regularly and avoid smoking and alcohol have higher perceptions of social support. Perceived social support from family may be more effective than perceived social support from friends or a significant other in the development of psychological well-being and positive future expectations of Turkish adolescents.

Interpersonal Assessment of Future School Psychologists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dixon, Robert J.

The roles and expectations of school psychologists are expanding. Practitioners are increasingly being asked to move beyond the testing expectations to provide effective counseling and consultation interventions. Training programs are expected to create balanced, functioning practitioners who will make positive impacts on children's lives. This…

Ten years of the international review meetings on Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence /CETI/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesek, R.; Billingham, J.

1981-01-01

The development of ideas on CETI within the international community over the past five years is reviewed, and the outlook for future CETI activities is discussed. The growth of review sessions on CETI held annually by the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) is considered, with particular attention given to the issue of radio frequency allocation for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. CETI activities outside the IAA are then examined, including the Viking search for life on Mars, Project Orion for the detection of extrasolar planetary systems, SETI programs undertaken in the U.S. and Soviet Union, and the development of multispectral spectrum analyzers and signal processors. The expected future development of CETI strategies, techniques and instrumentation as well as popular and scientific interest in SETI are discussed, and it is noted that the IAA sessions remain the only regular international forum for the exchange of data on all aspects of CETI.

Perceived Life Expectancy Is Associated with Colorectal Cancer Screening in England.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Lindsay C; von Wagner, Christian; Wardle, Jane

2017-06-01

Cancer screening is a behavior that represents investment in future health. Such investment may depend on how much 'future' a person expects. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prospective association between perceived personal life expectancy and participation in fecal occult blood test screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) in a national program. Data were from interviews with 3975 men and women in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) within the eligible age range for the national screening program (60 to 74 years). Perceived life expectancy was indexed as the individual's estimate of their chance of living another 10-15 years (exact time varied by age), assessed in 2008/2009. Participation in CRC screening from 2010 to 2012/2013 was assessed in 2012/2013. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between perceived life expectancy and screening participation, adjusted for numeracy and known mortality risk factors. Overall, 71% of respondents (2817/3975) reported completing at least one fecal occult blood test (FOBt) during the follow-up. Screening uptake was 76% (1272/1683) among those who estimated their 10-15-year life expectancy as 75-100%, compared with 52% (126/243) among those who estimated theirs as 0-25% (adjusted OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.29-2.34). A longer perceived life expectancy is associated with greater likelihood of participating in CRC screening in England. However, half of people with a low perceived life expectancy still participated in screening. Given that CRC screening is recommended for adults with a remaining life expectancy of ≥10 years, future research should investigate how to communicate the aims of screening more effectively.

Does implied volatility of currency futures option imply volatility of exchange rates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Alan T.

2007-02-01

By investigating currency futures options, this paper provides an alternative economic implication for the result reported by Stein [Overreactions in the options market, Journal of Finance 44 (1989) 1011-1023] that long-maturity options tend to overreact to changes in the implied volatility of short-maturity options. When a GARCH process is assumed for exchange rates, a continuous-time relationship is developed. We provide evidence that implied volatilities may not be the simple average of future expected volatilities. By comparing the term-structure relationship of implied volatilities with the process of the underlying exchange rates, we find that long-maturity options are more consistent with the exchange rates process. In sum, short-maturity options overreact to the dynamics of underlying assets rather than long-maturity options overreacting to short-maturity options.

MS&T'13 Symposium Preview: Metal and Polymer Matrix Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Nikhil; Paramsothy, Muralidharan

2013-08-01

The Metal and Polymer Matrix Composites symposium at Materials Science & Technology 2013 (MS&T'13) conference is planned to provide a platform to researchers working on various aspects of composite materials and capture the state of the art in this area. The dialogue among leading researchers is expected to provide insight into the future of this field and identify the future directions in terms of research, development, and applications of composite materials. In the 2 day program, the symposium includes 34 presentations, including 10 invited presentations. The contributions have come from 16 different countries including USA, Mexico, Switzerland, India, Egypt, and Singapore.

Iron overload cardiomyopathy: from diagnosis to management.

PubMed

Díez-López, Carles; Comín-Colet, Josep; González-Costello, José

2018-05-01

Iron overload cardiomyopathy (IOC) is an important predictor of prognosis in a significant number of patients with hereditary hemochromatosis and hematologic diseases. Its prevalence is increasing because of improved treatment strategies, which significantly improve life expectancy. We will review diagnosis, treatment, and recent findings in the field. The development of preclinical translational disease models during the last years have helped our understanding of specific disease pathophysiological pathways that might eventually change the outcomes of these patients. IOC is an overlooked disease because of the progressive silent disease pattern and the lack of physicians' expertise. It mainly affects patients with hemochromatosis and hematologic diseases and its prevalence is expected to increase with the improvement in life expectancy of hematologic disorders. Early diagnosis of IOC in patients at risk by means of biochemical parameters and cardiac imaging can lead to early treatment and improved prognosis. The mainstay of treatment of IOC is conventional heart failure treatment, combined with phlebotomies or iron chelation in the context of anemia. The development of preclinical models has provided a comprehensive look into specific pathophysiological pathways with potential treatment strategies that must be sustained by future randomized trials.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Warner, Ethan; Sun, Yongling

The Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technologies Program (ARFVTP) supports a wide range of alternative, low-carbon fuel and vehicle projects in California. This report focuses on two types of ARFVTP benefits. Expected benefits reflect successful deployment of vehicles and fuels supported through program projects. Market transformation benefits represent benefits resulting from project influences on future market conditions to accelerated technology adoption rates. Data collected directly from ARFVTP projects funded from 2009 to first quarter 2014 are used as inputs to the benefits analysis, where possible. Expected benefit estimation methods rely primarily upon project-level data and result in year single-pointmore » estimates within the 2011 to 2025 analysis period. Results suggest that the 178 projects evaluated for expected benefits, representing an investment of $351.3 million in ARFVTP funds, could result in a reduction in petroleum fuel use by 236 million gallons per year and greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 1.7 million metric tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) per year by 2025. Market transformation benefits are described as accruing in addition to expected benefits. They are inherently more uncertain and theoretical than expected benefits, and are therefore reported as high and low ranges, with results suggesting reductions of 1.1 MMTCO2e to 2.5 MMTCO2e per year in GHG reductions and 102 million to 330 million gallons per year in petroleum fuel reductions by 2025. Taking both benefit types into account, results suggest that ARFVTP projects have the potential to make substantial progress toward meeting California's long-term GHG and petroleum fuel use reduction goals. As additional project data become available and market success with alternative and renewable fuels and vehicles grows, the analytic framework relied upon to develop these estimates will become more rigorous and will have a greater capacity to inform future ARFVTP activities.« less

Patients' expectations of private osteopathic care in the UK: a national survey of patients.

PubMed

Leach, C M Janine; Mandy, Anne; Hankins, Matthew; Bottomley, Laura M; Cross, Vinette; Fawkes, Carol A; Fiske, Adam; Moore, Ann P

2013-05-31

Patients' expectations of osteopathic care have been little researched. The aim of this study was to quantify the most important expectations of patients in private UK osteopathic practices, and the extent to which those expectations were met or unmet. The study involved development and application of a questionnaire about patients' expectations of osteopathic care. The questionnaire drew on an extensive review of the literature and the findings of a prior qualitative study involving focus groups exploring the expectations of osteopathic patients. A questionnaire survey of osteopathic patients in the UK was then conducted. Patients were recruited from a random sample of 800 registered osteopaths in private practice across the UK. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire which asked about 51 aspects of expectation, and post it to the researchers for analysis.The main outcome measures were the patients-perceived level of expectation as assessed by the percentage of positive responses for each aspect of expectation, and unmet expectation as computed from the proportion responding that their expectation "did not happen". 1649 sets of patient data were included in the analysis. Thirty five (69%) of the 51 aspects of expectation were prevalent, with listening, respect and information-giving ranking highest. Only 11 expectations were unmet, the most often unmet were to be made aware that there was a complaints procedure, to find it difficult to pay for osteopathic treatment, and perceiving a lack of communication between the osteopath and their GP. The findings reflected the complexity of providing osteopathic care and meeting patients' expectations. The results provided a generally positive message about private osteopathic practice. The study identified certain gaps between expectations and delivery of care, which can be used to improve the quality of care. The questionnaire is a resource for future research.

Communication satellite payload technologies - State of the art and trends in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mica, G.; Coirault, R.

1982-09-01

Communication satellite payload technologies are examined, in terms of past, present, and future ESA guidelines. Various existing payload systems are presented, such as Marecs, ECS, and L-Sat (which will carry four payloads). Future services within the market include 2 Mb/sec high speed data, 2-8 Mb/sec video conference, and 64 Mb/sec television distribution, and growth in these areas is dependent on traffic requirements. Pre-operational satellites are outlined, for example Telecom 1 has an estimated system capacity of 150 Mb/sec, Italsat has an expected 1180 Mb/sec, and DFS demonstrates a possible 1540 Mb/sec capacity. It is found that the 20/30 GHz band should be applied for use in wideband and high capacity trunks among heavy traffic centers. To accommodate for the noise in this waveband, the parametric amplifier developed for L-Sat must be used. Finally, development objectives for future programs include improving spectrum and geostationary orbit utilization, cost-efficiency, and standardization of systems.

Effects of Climate Change and Deforestation on the Amazon's Hydrological Cycle Will Require Interventions to Hydropower Planning in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arias, M. E.; Farinosi, F.; Lee, E.; Livino, A.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2016-12-01

Brazil is the 2nd largest hydropower producer in the world, and this energy source will continue to be a priority in the country for the foreseeable decades. Yet, climate change is expected to alter the country's hydrological regime, in particular in the Amazon where most new hydropower development is occurring. In order to better assess the potential of hydropower projects in decades to come, it is important to evaluate how future hydrological regimes will affect their performance and suitability. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and land use conversion on hydropower generation, and identifies mechanisms that could help energy planners to account for future changes. Using the largest network of dams in Brazil's national portfolio within a single watershed, the Tapaj's River, this study connects global and regional future environmental projections to daily river flows and operations of 37 dams with an overall potential capacity of 29.4 GW. We found that climate change could decrease hydropower potential by 477-665 MW (-6 to -8% from historical conditions) during the dry season, a critical loss since dams are expected to operate at only one third of capacity during this perioddue to the limited reservoir volume of most projects in the Amazon lowlands. Furthermore, deforestation is expected to increase the inter-annual variability in hydropower potential from 2,798 for baseline conditions to 3,764-3,899 (+967-1102) MW under future scenarios for the 2040s. Consideration of future hydrological conditions on individual dams showed that the magnitude and uncertainty of losses could be greater than 30 MW -equivalent to the total potential of some dams in the inventory- in 11 of the projects studied. Future hydrological conditions could also delay the period when maximum daily generation occurs by 22-29 days, which could have important implications to energy planning in Brazil because these run-of-river dams would no longer be able to meet the country's seasonal peak demand. This information on future changes to individual dams' performance could feed directly into the project selection process in order to adapt designs and operations to ensure the greatest benefits and least impacts from hydropower in the long term.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, G.G.; Mayor, T.H.

This paper develops a technique for extracting the expectations embedded in the current prices of energy-using durable goods and applies it to be used-car markets during the two energy crises of the 1970s. The resulting estimates indicate that consumers took the energy crises seriously and formed expectations about future gasoline prices that appear rational when compared with the historical gasoline price series, with the forecasts of specialists and experts, or with the actual postsample behavior of gasoline prices. The evidence therefore supports the view that consumers are able to make rather complex choices with a great deal of rationality andmore » casts doubt on the wisdom of policies based on assumptions to the contrary. 17 references, 2 figures.« less

History of Circuit Breakers and Expectations of Japanese Original Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshioka, Yoshio; Yoshinaga, Kiyoshi; Yanabu, Satoru

This paper studies the history of high voltage circuit breaker engineering. Methods of analysis are (1) to collect facts in regard to its development, (2) to review the history in order to find essential factors and (3) to identify its pros and cons from engineering point of view. The amount of electric power consumption has increased and gradually the circuit breaker concept was developed. At first the oil circuit breakers were developed in Europe and the air circuit breaker and vacuum circuit breaker were developed. Finally the SF6gas circuit breakers are developed together with the gas insulated switchgear and what is next? The future research and development policy is also discussed.

Future-oriented emotions in the prediction of binge-drinking intention and expectation: the role of anticipated and anticipatory emotions.

PubMed

Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores

2012-06-01

The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) offers a parsimonious explanation of purposive behavior, but in the study of healthy and risk behaviors its sufficiency may be questioned. Working with binge-drinking, a very common risk behavior in Spanish undergraduate students, we used two strategies for improving predictions from TPB: using behavioral intention (BI) and behavioral expectation (BE) as proximal antecedents of behaviors and adding as new predictors two future-oriented emotions (anticipated and anticipatory). Hierarchical regression analyses show that while anticipated emotions improved TPB explanations of BI, anticipatory emotions improved the explanations of BE. The present results show the influence of future emotions in the prediction of behavioral intention and behavioral expectation. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2012 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

2017-04-01

Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

Role of research aircraft in technology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szalai, K. J.

1984-01-01

The United States's aeronautical research program has been rich in the use of research aircraft to explore new flight regimes, develop individual aeronautical concepts, and investigate new vehicle classes and configurations. This paper reviews the NASA supercritical wing, digital fly-by-wire, HiMAT, and AD-1 oblique-wing flight research programs, and draws from these examples general conclusions regarding the role and impact of research aircraft in technology development. The impact of a flight program on spinoff technology is also addressed. The secondary, serendipitous results are often highly significant. Finally, future research aircraft programs are examined for technology trends and expected results.

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in the Western U.S.?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niraula, R.; Meixner, T.; Dominguez, F.; Bhattarai, N.; Rodell, M.; Ajami, H.; Gochis, D.; Castro, C.

2017-10-01

Although groundwater is a major water resource in the western U.S., little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future across the western U.S. Variable Infiltration Capacity model was run with RCP 6.0 forcing from 11 global climate models and "subsurface runoff" output was considered as recharge. Recharge is expected to decrease in the West (-5.8 ± 14.3%) and Southwest (-4.0 ± 6.7%) regions in the near future and in the South region (-9.5 ± 24.3%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge in the near (+5.3 ± 9.2%) and far (+11.8 ± 12.3%) future. Overall, southern portions of the western U.S. are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. Climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future. Effects on recharge due to change in vegetation response from projected changes in climate and CO2 concentration, though important, are not considered in this study.

Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists

PubMed Central

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-01-01

We describe two collaborations in which psychologists and economists provided essential support on foundational projects in major research programs. One project involved eliciting adolescents’ expectations regarding significant future life events affecting their psychological and economic development. The second project involved eliciting consumers’ expectations regarding inflation, a potentially vital input to their investment, saving, and purchasing decisions. In each project, we sought questions with the precision needed for economic modeling and the simplicity needed for lay respondents. We identify four conditions that, we believe, promoted our ability to sustain these transdisciplinary collaborations and coproduce the research: (i) having a shared research goal, which neither discipline could achieve on its own; (ii) finding common ground in shared methodology, which met each discipline’s essential evidentiary conditions, but without insisting on its culturally acquired tastes; (iii) sharing the effort throughout, with common language and sense of ownership; and (iv) gaining mutual benefit from both the research process and its products. PMID:28270610

Expected net present value of sample information: from burden to investment.

PubMed

Hall, Peter S; Edlin, Richard; Kharroubi, Samer; Gregory, Walter; McCabe, Christopher

2012-01-01

The Expected Value of Information Framework has been proposed as a method for identifying when health care technologies should be immediately reimbursed and when any reimbursement should be withheld while awaiting more evidence. This framework assesses the value of obtaining additional evidence to inform a current reimbursement decision. This represents the burden of not having the additional evidence at the time of the decision. However, when deciding whether to reimburse now or await more evidence, decision makers need to know the value of investing in more research to inform a future decision. Assessing this value requires consideration of research costs, research time, and what happens to patients while the research is undertaken and after completion. The investigators describe a development of the calculation of the expected value of sample information that assesses the value of investing in further research, including an only-in-research strategy and an only-with-research strategy.

Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists.

PubMed

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Fischhoff, Baruch

2017-03-28

We describe two collaborations in which psychologists and economists provided essential support on foundational projects in major research programs. One project involved eliciting adolescents' expectations regarding significant future life events affecting their psychological and economic development. The second project involved eliciting consumers' expectations regarding inflation, a potentially vital input to their investment, saving, and purchasing decisions. In each project, we sought questions with the precision needed for economic modeling and the simplicity needed for lay respondents. We identify four conditions that, we believe, promoted our ability to sustain these transdisciplinary collaborations and coproduce the research: ( i ) having a shared research goal, which neither discipline could achieve on its own; ( ii ) finding common ground in shared methodology, which met each discipline's essential evidentiary conditions, but without insisting on its culturally acquired tastes; ( iii ) sharing the effort throughout, with common language and sense of ownership; and ( iv ) gaining mutual benefit from both the research process and its products.

Effects of a brief media intervention on expectations, attitudes, and intentions of mental health help seeking.

PubMed

Demyan, Amy L; Anderson, Timothy

2012-04-01

This study examined the effects of a mass-media video intervention on expectations, attitudes, and intentions to seek help from professional mental health care services. A public service announcement-style, mass-media video intervention was developed, with prior empirical research on help-seeking behaviors organized according to the theory of reasoned action/planned behavior. In total, 228 participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 conditions: (a) the media-exposed intervention group, who watched programming in which the media intervention was inserted, and (b) the control group, who watched the same programming without the media intervention. The media intervention was not influential on expectation and belief-based barrier variables. However, the media intervention was effective at increasing positive attitudes toward help seeking. Findings regarding the intervention's ability to increase help-seeking intentions for interpersonal problems were complex. Implications of these findings for future research are discussed.

Are Pilots Graduating SUPT Today Meeting AMC’s Current and Future Needs

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-05

expect. The future operating environment is expected to be characterized by uncertainty , complexity, rapid change and persistent conflict. As...Procedures  Navigation: Visual, VFR, and IFR  Situational Awareness  Task Management  Three-Dimensional Maneuvering Two methods are used...operations under Instrument or VFR to include day / night IFR operations in the terminal and enroute environment. c. The conduct of mission in a

Considerations on Caring for Caregivers in an Aging Society.

PubMed

Sinha, Dr Samir K

2015-01-01

While it is anticipated that healthcare systems around the world will continue to rely heavily on family members and friends to provide unpaid care especially to meet the needs of our aging population, current assumptions and issues around caregivers need to be challenged and addressed if we are to expect their future support. This paper builds on Williams et al's assertion that many current assumptions and issues around caregivers need to be challenged and addressed if we are to expect their future support. Indeed, with the pool of available caregivers expected to actually shrink in the future, this paper therefore examines four key policy issues in greater depth that we can address to enable individuals to age in place and others to maintain and take on caregiving roles. Through the establishment of policies that support robust and longterm capacity planning; make clear what care recipients and caregivers can expect to receive in the form of government supports; appreciate the increasing diversity that is occurring among those taking on caregiving roles and those requiring care; and recognize the need to invest in strategies that combat social isolation, we may not only improve our future health and well-being but ensure we are also enabled to care for ourselves as we age.

Living with an inborn error of metabolism detected by newborn screening-parents' perspectives on child development and impact on family life.

PubMed

Gramer, Gwendolyn; Haege, Gisela; Glahn, Esther M; Hoffmann, Georg F; Lindner, Martin; Burgard, Peter

2014-03-01

Newborn screening for inborn errors of metabolism is regarded as highly successful by health professionals. Little is known about parents' perspectives on child development and social impact on families. Parents of 187 patients with metabolic disorders detected by newborn screening rated child development, perceived burdens on child and family, and future expectations on a questionnaire with standardized answers. Parental ratings were compared with standardized psychometric test results. Regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with extent of perceived burden. In 26.2% of patients, parents perceived delays in global development and/or specific developmental domains (physical, social, intellectual, language). Parents expected normal future development in 95.7%, and an independent adult life for their child in 94.6%. Comparison with psychometric test results showed that parents of children with cognitive impairments tended to overrate their child's abilities. Mild/medium burden posed on the family (child) by the metabolic disorder was stated by 56.1% (48.9%) of parents, severe/very severe burden by 19.3% (8.6%). One third of families reported financial burden due to the metabolic disorder. Dietary treatment and diagnoses with risk for metabolic decompensation despite treatment were associated with higher perceived burden for the family. Disorders rated as potentially very burdensome by experts were not rated accordingly by parents, demonstrating different perspectives of professionals and parents. Although newborn screening leads to favourable physical and cognitive outcome, living with a metabolic disorder may cause considerable stress on patients and families, emphasizing the need for comprehensive multidisciplinary care including psychological and social support.

Expectations of filial obligation and their impact on preferences for future living arrangements of middle-aged and older Asian Indian immigrants.

PubMed

Diwan, Sadhna; Lee, Sang E; Sen, Soma

2011-03-01

Filial obligation, described as culturally-defined rights and duties that prescribe how family members are expected to care for and provide support to each other, is an important variable that influences older immigrants' preferences for living and care arrangements. This exploratory study examined variables associated with expectations of filial obligation among middle-aged and older, Asian Indian, first generation immigrants and explored the relationship between variations in expectations of filial obligation and expressed preferences for future living arrangements. Data were collected through telephone surveys of 226 English-speaking immigrants in Atlanta, GA. Although no significant relationships were observed between filial obligation expectations and length of residence in the U.S., respondents indicated a variety of preferred future living arrangements. Contrary to current living arrangement patterns found among older immigrants, very few respondents preferred to move in with their children. The most popular preference was to "move closer to children," followed by "moving to a retirement community" with the majority preferring a retirement community geared to Asian Indians. Other preferences included "not moving" and "returning to India." Variations in expectations of filial obligation, length of residence in the U.S., and self-rated health were significantly associated with these preferences. Implications are discussed for building capacity within ethnic communities to address living arrangement preferences and their repercussions for caregiving in ethnic families and in communities.

CONTEMPORARY SITUATIONS AND PROBLEMS OF ROAD/BRIDGE MAINTENANCE TECHNICAL COOPERATION PROJECTS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimiya, Noriaki; Sanui, Kazumasa; Mizota, Yuzo

It is widely acknowledged that roads are the most important transport infrastructure in developing countries. Unlike railroads requiring organizations and systems to operate, individuals can drive on roads. Almost all donors have assisted developing countr ies for new road constructions and rehabilitations. Report of insufficient maintenance in the developing countries, however, has been notable. As a result of the maintenance problems, deterioration of roads is pr ogressing with speed more than expected. It causes the traffic safety problems and an obstacle of economic development. JICA and other donors recognize that this situation can not be overlooked and reci pient countries are increasing their expectation of obtaining assistance on road/bridge maintenance. JICA has implemented over 10 technical cooper ation projects for road/b ridge maintenance in developing countries. JICA conducted a study to review those projects comprehensively. That study aims at obtaining problems, lessons learned and discussion material for policy making and method improvement for future similar pr ojects. This report introduces the outline of the study including additional analysis and recommendations by the authors.

The global cancer burden and human development: A review.

PubMed

Fidler, Miranda M; Bray, Freddie; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

2018-02-01

This review examines the links between human development and cancer overall and for specific types of cancer, as well as cancer-related risk-factors and outcomes, such as disability and life expectancy. To assess human development, the Human Development Index was utilized continuously and according to four levels (low, medium, high, very high), where the low and very high categories include the least and most developed countries, respectively. All studies that assessed aspects of the global cancer burden using this measure were reviewed. Although the present cancer incidence burden is greater in higher Human Development Index countries, a greater proportion of the global mortality burden is observed in less developed countries, with a higher mean fatality rate in the latter countries. Further, the future cancer burden is expected to disproportionally affect less developed regions; in particular, it has been estimated that low and medium Human Development Index countries will experience a 100% and 81% increase in cancer incidence from 2008 to 2030, respectively. Disparities were also observed in risk factors and average health outcomes, such as a greater number of years of life lost prematurely and fewer cancer-related gains in life expectancy observed in lower versus higher Human Development Index settings. From a global perspective, there remain clear disparities in the cancer burden according to national Human Development Index scores. International efforts are needed to aid countries in social and economic transition in order to efficiently plan, implement and evaluate cancer control initiatives as a means to reduce the widening gap in cancer occurrence and survival worldwide.

The current status of 3D imaging in dental practice.

PubMed

McNamara, Clare; House, Kate; Davies, Rebecca; Barker, Chris S; Chawla, Ourvinder; Sandy, Jonathan R; Ireland, Anthony J

2011-12-01

This article aims to describe the current status of 3-dimensional (3D) imaging in dental practice. Advances in this field have made 3D imaging far more accessible in all dental fields. This paper describes methods of imaging dental hard and soft tissues and their clinical uses. In addition, the potential advantages and disadvantages of various systems are discussed, as well as expected future developments.

Piezoelectric PVF2 Polymer Films and Devices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-11-01

techniques and methods have been increasingly applied in the field of nondestructive testing and evaluation ( NDE ) of mate- rials and structures, and...numerous types of acoustic testing devices have been developed. The importance of acoustics in NDE efforts is expected to increase in the future. Thus...already found commercial applications outside the field of ultra- sonic transducers and NDE . Among the strong piezoelectrics, it has a unique set of

The VESUVIO Spectrometer Now and When?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seel, A. G.; Krzystyniak, M.; Fernandez-Alonso, F.

2014-12-01

The current layout and mechanics of the VESUVIO spectrometer are presented in light of spectroscopic measurements using electron-volt neutrons. A brief background to the theoretical framework of deep inelastic neutron scattering is presented, with focus on data collection and instrumental design. The current capabilities and research themes for VESUVIO are discussed, and possible future instrumental developments highlighted which will enhance the instrument's ability to meet scientific inquiry and expectation.

Changes in the Economy, the Labor Market, and Expectations for the Future: What Might Europe and the United States Look Like in Twenty-Five Years?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buchholz, Sandra; Blossfeld, Hans-Peter

2012-01-01

There is no doubt that the labor markets and economies of modern societies have been confronted by a marked intensification of cross-border exchange between modern states that has attained a new and previously unattained quality over the past thirty years. In the economic and sociological literature, this development is usually labeled…

Secondary Education for the Future. Report of a Forum Meeting on New Trends and Processes of Secondary Education (Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, November 17-December 4, 1985).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Regional Office for Education in Asia and the Pacific.

A number of countries in Asia and the Pacific are moving from a predominantly agricultural economy to industrialization, thus creating different expectations of secondary schools. The forum described provided the opportunity to reach certain consensus on the directions of secondary education; develop alternative objectives of secondary education;…

Creating Communications, Computing, and Networking Technology Development Road Maps for Future NASA Human and Robotic Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhasin, Kul; Hayden, Jeffrey L.

2005-01-01

For human and robotic exploration missions in the Vision for Exploration, roadmaps are needed for capability development and investments based on advanced technology developments. A roadmap development process was undertaken for the needed communications, and networking capabilities and technologies for the future human and robotics missions. The underlying processes are derived from work carried out during development of the future space communications architecture, an d NASA's Space Architect Office (SAO) defined formats and structures for accumulating data. Interrelationships were established among emerging requirements, the capability analysis and technology status, and performance data. After developing an architectural communications and networking framework structured around the assumed needs for human and robotic exploration, in the vicinity of Earth, Moon, along the path to Mars, and in the vicinity of Mars, information was gathered from expert participants. This information was used to identify the capabilities expected from the new infrastructure and the technological gaps in the way of obtaining them. We define realistic, long-term space communication architectures based on emerging needs and translate the needs into interfaces, functions, and computer processing that will be required. In developing our roadmapping process, we defined requirements for achieving end-to-end activities that will be carried out by future NASA human and robotic missions. This paper describes: 10 the architectural framework developed for analysis; 2) our approach to gathering and analyzing data from NASA, industry, and academia; 3) an outline of the technology research to be done, including milestones for technology research and demonstrations with timelines; and 4) the technology roadmaps themselves.

Energy harvesting for the implantable biomedical devices: issues and challenges.

PubMed

Hannan, Mahammad A; Mutashar, Saad; Samad, Salina A; Hussain, Aini

2014-06-20

The development of implanted devices is essential because of their direct effect on the lives and safety of humanity. This paper presents the current issues and challenges related to all methods used to harvest energy for implantable biomedical devices. The advantages, disadvantages, and future trends of each method are discussed. The concept of harvesting energy from environmental sources and human body motion for implantable devices has gained a new relevance. In this review, the harvesting kinetic, electromagnetic, thermal and infrared radiant energies are discussed. Current issues and challenges related to the typical applications of these methods for energy harvesting are illustrated. Suggestions and discussion of the progress of research on implantable devices are also provided. This review is expected to increase research efforts to develop the battery-less implantable devices with reduced over hole size, low power, high efficiency, high data rate, and improved reliability and feasibility. Based on current literature, we believe that the inductive coupling link is the suitable method to be used to power the battery-less devices. Therefore, in this study, the power efficiency of the inductive coupling method is validated by MATLAB based on suggested values. By further researching and improvements, in the future the implantable and portable medical devices are expected to be free of batteries.

At, with and beyond risk: expectations of living with the possibility of future dementia.

PubMed

Milne, Richard; Diaz, Ana; Badger, Shirlene; Bunnik, Eline; Fauria, Karine; Wells, Katie

2018-04-16

Biomedical research aimed at the development of therapies for chronic and late-onset conditions increasingly concentrates on the early treatment of symptom-less disease. This broad trend is evidenced in prominent shifts in contemporary dementia research. Revised diagnostic criteria and new approaches to clinical trials propose a focus on earlier stages of disease and prompt concerns about the implications of communicating test results associated with the risk of developing dementia when no effective treatments are available. This article examines expectations of the implications of learning test results related to dementia risk, based on focus group research conducted in the UK and Spain. It points to the extended social and temporal aspects of the dementia risk experience. Three key dimensions of this risk experience are elaborated: living 'at risk', represented in efforts to reduce risk and plan for the future; 'with risk', through vigilance towards cognitive health and earlier or prolonged contact with healthcare services; and finally, 'beyond risk' through a cessation of the self in its current social, legal and financial form. A virtual abstract of this paper can be viewed at: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_979cmCmR9rLrKuD7z0ycA. © 2018 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

Energy harvesting for the implantable biomedical devices: issues and challenges

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The development of implanted devices is essential because of their direct effect on the lives and safety of humanity. This paper presents the current issues and challenges related to all methods used to harvest energy for implantable biomedical devices. The advantages, disadvantages, and future trends of each method are discussed. The concept of harvesting energy from environmental sources and human body motion for implantable devices has gained a new relevance. In this review, the harvesting kinetic, electromagnetic, thermal and infrared radiant energies are discussed. Current issues and challenges related to the typical applications of these methods for energy harvesting are illustrated. Suggestions and discussion of the progress of research on implantable devices are also provided. This review is expected to increase research efforts to develop the battery-less implantable devices with reduced over hole size, low power, high efficiency, high data rate, and improved reliability and feasibility. Based on current literature, we believe that the inductive coupling link is the suitable method to be used to power the battery-less devices. Therefore, in this study, the power efficiency of the inductive coupling method is validated by MATLAB based on suggested values. By further researching and improvements, in the future the implantable and portable medical devices are expected to be free of batteries. PMID:24950601

MEMS packaging: state of the art and future trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossche, Andre; Cotofana, Carmen V. B.; Mollinger, Jeff R.

1998-07-01

Now that the technology for Integrated sensor and MEMS devices has become sufficiently mature to allow mass production, it is expected that the prices of bare chips will drop dramatically. This means that the package prices will become a limiting factor in market penetration, unless low cost packaging solutions become available. This paper will discuss the developments in packaging technology. Both single-chip and multi-chip packaging solutions will be addressed. It first starts with a discussion on the different requirements that have to be met; both from a device point of view (open access paths to the environment, vacuum cavities, etc.) and from the application point of view (e.g. environmental hostility). Subsequently current technologies are judged on their applicability for MEMS and sensor packaging and a forecast is given for future trends. It is expected that the large majority of sensing devices will be applied in relative friendly environments for which plastic packages would suffice. Therefore, on the short term an important role is foreseen for recently developed plastic packaging techniques such as precision molding and precision dispensing. Just like in standard electronic packaging, complete wafer level packaging methods for sensing devices still have a long way to go before they can compete with the highly optimized and automated plastic packaging processes.

Immersion lithography: its history, current status and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owa, Soichi; Nagasaka, Hiroyuki

2008-11-01

Since the 1980's, immersion exposure has been proposed several times. At the end of 1990's, however, these concepts were almost forgotten because other technologies, such as electron beam projection, EUVL, and 157 nm were believed to be more promising than immersion exposures. The current work in immersion lithography started in 2001 with the report of Switkes and Rothschild. Although their first proposal was at 157 nm wavelength, their report in the following year on 193 nm immersion with purified water turned out to be the turning point for the introduction of water-based 193 nm immersion lithography. In February, 2003, positive feasibility study results of 193 nm immersion were presented at the SPIE microlithography conference. Since then, the development of 193 nm immersion exposure tools accelerated. Currently (year 2008), multiple hyper NA (NA>1.0) scanners are generating mass production 45 nm half pitch devices in semiconductor manufacturing factories. As a future extension, high index immersion was studied over the past few years, but material development lagged more than expected, which resulted in the cancellation of high index immersion plans at scanner makers. Instead, double patterning, double dipole exposure, and customized illuminations techniques are expected as techniques to extend immersion for the 32 nm node and beyond.

Being a Teacher: Altruistic and Narcissistic Expectations of Pre-Service Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Isaac A.

2016-01-01

The article focuses on investigating pre-service teachers' expectations of their future teaching career, in particular concerning teacher-student interrelations. In an attempt to comprehend why people choose teaching as a professional career, a conceptual model titled "Teachers" altruistic-narcissistic classroom expectations' was…

Educational Resilience in African American Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Michael; Swanson, Dena Phillips

2010-01-01

The purpose of this article was to examine factors within the school context that facilitates educational resilience among African American high school students. The authors expected academic self-esteem to be positively associated with future expectations (academic and general). They expected perceptions of school-based social support to have…

Men Want Equality, but Women Don't Expect It: Young Adults' Expectations for Participation in Household and Child Care Chores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Askari, Sabrina F.; Liss, Miriam; Erchull, Mindy J.; Staebell, Samantha E.; Axelson, Sarah J.

2010-01-01

This study explored whether there was a discrepancy between young adults' ideal and expected participation in household and child care chores as well as what variables predicted expectations for future chore division. Three-hundred fifty-eight unmarried, heterosexual participants with no children completed an online questionnaire assessing the…

Future thinking instructions improve prospective memory performance in adolescents.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Kretschmer, Anett; Schnitzspahn, Katharina Marlene

2017-07-01

Studies on prospective memory (PM) development in adolescents point to age-related increases through to adulthood. The goal of the present study was to examine whether instructing adolescents to engage in an episodic prospection of themselves executing future actions (i.e., future thinking) when forming an intention would improve their PM performance and reduce age-related differences. Further, we set out to explore whether future thinking instructions result in stronger memory traces and/or stronger cue-context associations by evaluating retrospective memory for the PM cues after task completion and monitoring costs during PM task processing. Adolescents and young adults were allocated to either the future thinking, repeated-encoding or standard condition. As expected, adolescents had fewer correct PM responses than young adults. Across age groups, PM performance in the standard condition was lower than in the other encoding conditions. Importantly, the results indicate a significant interaction of age by encoding condition. While adolescents benefited most from future thinking instructions, young adults performed best in the repeated-encoding condition. The results also indicate that the beneficial effects of future thinking may result from deeper intention-encoding through the simulation of future task performance.

Developmental changes in autonomic responses are associated with future reward/punishment expectations: A study of sympathetic skin responses in the Markov decision task.

PubMed

Hosaka, Hiromi; Aoyagi, Kakuro; Kaga, Yoshimi; Kanemura, Hideaki; Sugita, Kanji; Aihara, Masao

2017-08-01

Autonomic nervous system activity is recognized as a major component of emotional responses. Future reward/punishment expectations depend upon the process of decision making in the frontal lobe, which is considered to play an important role in executive function. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between autonomic responses and decision making during reinforcement tasks using sympathetic skin responses (SSR). Nine adult and 9 juvenile (mean age, 10.2years) volunteers were enrolled in this study. SSRs were measured during the Markov decision task (MDT), which is a reinforcement task. In this task, subjects must endure a small immediate loss to ultimately get a large reward. The subjects had to undergo three sets of tests and their scores in these tests were assessed and evaluated. All adults showed gradually increasing scores for the MDT from the first to third set. As the trial progressed from the first to second set in adults, SSR appearance ratios remarkably increased for both punishment and reward expectations. In comparison with adults, children showed decreasing scores from the first to second set. There were no significant inter-target differences in the SSR appearance ratio in the first and second set in children. In the third set, the SSR appearance ratio for reward expectations was higher than that in the neutral condition. In reinforcement tasks, such as MDT, autonomic responses play an important role in decision making. We assume that SSRs are elicited during efficient decision making tasks associated with future reward/punishment expectations, which demonstrates the importance of autonomic function. In contrast, in children around the age of 10years, the autonomic system does not react as an organized response specific to reward/punishment expectations. This suggests the immaturity of the future reward/punishment expectations process in children. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing to harvest? Perspectives on the potential of aquaculture

PubMed Central

Muir, James

2005-01-01

Aquaculture has been one of the most rapid and technically innovative of food production sectors globally, with significant investment, scientific and technical development and production growth in many parts of the world over the past two decades. While this has had a significant effect on the global supply of aquatic food products and had an important impact in rural and urban food supply and employment in many developing economies, growth and increasing internationalization has not been without concern for natural resource use, environmental impact and social disruption. The expectations for production and diversification are now significant and while the scientific and technical means are already available to meet much of the intended targets, practical constraints of investment, profitability, resource access and system efficiency are likely to become far more important constraints for the future. This review offers a contemporary perspective on the ways in which the sector might develop, its interactions with constraints and the strategies that may be required to ensure that future development is both positive and sustainable. PMID:15713597

A method for modeling the effects of climate and land use changes on erosion and sustainability of soil in a Mediterranean watershed (Languedoc, France).

PubMed

Paroissien, Jean-Baptiste; Darboux, Frédéric; Couturier, Alain; Devillers, Benoît; Mouillot, Florent; Raclot, Damien; Le Bissonnais, Yves

2015-03-01

Global climate and land use changes could strongly affect soil erosion and the capability of soils to sustain agriculture and in turn impact regional or global food security. The objective of our study was to develop a method to assess soil sustainability to erosion under changes in land use and climate. The method was applied in a typical mixed Mediterranean landscape in a wine-growing watershed (75 km(2)) within the Languedoc region (La Peyne, France) for two periods: a first period with the current climate and land use and a second period with the climate and land use scenarios at the end of the twenty-first century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B future rainfall scenarios from the Météo France General circulation model was coupled with four contrasting land use change scenarios that were designed using a spatially-explicit land use change model. Mean annual erosion rate was estimated with an expert-based soil erosion model. Soil life expectancy was assessed using soil depth. Soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy were combined into a sustainability index. The median simulated soil erosion rate for the current period was 3.5 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 273 years, showing a low sustainability of soils. For the future period with the same land use distribution, the median simulated soil erosion rate was 4.2 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 249 years. The results show that soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy are more sensitive to changes in land use than to changes in precipitation. Among the scenarios tested, institution of a mandatory grass cover in vineyards seems to be an efficient means of significantly improving soil sustainability, both in terms of decreased soil erosion rates and increased soil life expectancies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying crash data to injury claims - an investigation of determinant factors in severe motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Shannon, Darren; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Eggert, Julian

2018-04-01

An extensive number of research studies have attempted to capture the factors that influence the severity of vehicle impacts. The high number of risks facing all traffic participants has led to a gradual increase in sophisticated data collection schemes linking crash characteristics to subsequent severity measures. This study serves as a departure from previous research by relating injuries suffered in road traffic accidents to expected trauma compensation payouts and deriving a quantitative cost function. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) Crash Injury Research (CIREN) database for the years 2005-2014 is combined with the Book of Quantum, an Irish governmental document that offers guidelines on the appropriate compensation to be awarded for injuries sustained in accidents. A multiple linear regression is carried out to identify the crash factors that significantly influence expected compensation costs and compared to ordered and multinomial logit models. The model offers encouraging results given the inherent variation expected in vehicular incidents and the subjectivity influencing compensation payout judgments, attaining an adjusted-R 2 fit of 20.6% when uninfluential factors are removed. It is found that relative speed at time of impact and dark conditions increase the expected costs, while rear-end incidents, incident sustained in van-based trucks and incidents sustained while turning result in lower expected compensations. The number of airbags available in the vehicle is also a significant factor. The scalar-outcome approach used in this research offers an alternative methodology to the discrete-outcome models that dominate traffic safety analyses. The results also raise queries on the future development of claims reserving (capital allocations earmarked for future expected claims payments) as advanced driver assistant systems (ADASs) seek to eradicate the most frequent types of crash factors upon which insurance mathematics base their assumptions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

One vendor's experience: preliminary development of a reminder system based on the Arden Syntax.

PubMed

Spates, R P; Aller, K C

1994-09-01

This article reviews the efforts of HBO & Company in the production of a first phase clinical alerting system based on the Arden Syntax. The alerting system was integrated with a clinical data repository and clinical workstation to process returning laboratory results. Investigations with expert systems resulted in a C language alerting system. GUI prototyping of an authoring environment led to a Smalltalk language authoring system. Future development is expected to broaden the system scope and address the evolution of the Arden Syntax.

Development of structural ceramic components for automobile applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kawamoto, H.

1995-12-01

Development efforts have been made in automobile technologies on heat engines to improve the power performance, the fuel economy, and so on. It is well recognized that ceramic applications are keys to succeed in such advanced heat engines, because of their good mechanical and thermal properties. This paper discusses present automobile applications of structural ceramic components and the expectations in automobile uses. The strength and reliability of mass-produced components for the engines are described with the manufacturing processes. The future R&D directions are recommended for structural ceramics.

Stratospheric observatory for infrared astronomy (SOFIA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becklin, E. E.; Moon, L. J.

The joint U.S. and German SOFIA project to develop and operate a 2.5-meter infrared airborne telescope in a Boeing 747-SP is now well into development. First science flights will begin in 2004 with 20% of the observing time assigned to German investigators. The observatory is expected to operate for over 20 years. The sensitivity, characteristics and science instrument complement are discussed. SOFIA will have instrumentation that will allow astronomical surveys that were not possible on the KAO. A future SOFIA survey project related to astrochemistry is discussed.

Emotional Intelligence and Simulation.

PubMed

McKinley, Sophia K; Phitayakorn, Roy

2015-08-01

Emotional intelligence (EI) is an established concept in the business literature with evidence that it is an important factor in determining career achievement. There is increasing interest in the role that EI has in medical training, but it is still a nascent field. This article reviews the EI literature most relevant to surgical training and proposes that simulation offers many benefits to the development of EI. Although there are many unanswered questions, it is expected that future research will demonstrate the effectiveness of using simulation to develop EI within surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stretched Lens Array (SLA) Photovoltaic Concentrator Hardware Development and Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piszczor, Michael; O'Neill, Mark J.; Eskenazi, Michael

2003-01-01

Over the past two years, the Stretched Lens Array (SLA) photovoltaic concentrator has evolved, under a NASA contract, from a concept with small component demonstrators to operational array hardware that is ready for space validation testing. A fully-functional four panel SLA solar array has been designed, built and tested. This paper will summarize the focus of the hardware development effort, discuss the results of recent testing conducted under this program and present the expected performance of a full size 7kW array designed to meet the requirements of future space missions.

[Demography of aging in Spain].

PubMed

Rubio Herrera, R

1994-01-01

In this article, the demography of the elderly in Spain is scrutinized. The older population from 1960 to 1991 and their presumed development for the period from 2001-2020 is analyzed. According to these data, we attempt to determine the influence on life situation of older people according to several factors, such as changes of family structures and intergenerational relations as well as changes in social stereotypes, expected political and economical developments, and new concepts in medical care. In closing, we raise questions about the necessary future living structures in Spain.

Financial Aspects and the Future of the Pharmaceutical Industry in the United States of America

PubMed Central

Karamehic, Jasenko; Ridic, Ognjen; Ridic, Goran; Jukic, Tomislav; Coric, Jozo; Subasic, Djemo; Panjeta, Mirsad; Saban, Aida; Zunic, Lejla; Masic, Izet

2013-01-01

Introduction: The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as “companies engaged in researching, developing, manufacturing and marketing of medicines and biological for human or veterinary use”. Besides its main role in improving human health, the US pharmaceutical industry represents one of the most critical, key decision makers’ lobbying prone and competitive sectors in the economy. The cost in the environment of very limited government price regulation remains one of the major problems fuelling aggregate health care cost inflation. Pharmaceuticals have created huge benefits for public health and economic productivity by the means of saving lives, increasing life expectancy, reducing illness related suffering, preventing surgeries and decreasing hospital stays. Purpose: The goal of this review paper is to show the present conditions and future trends of the pharmaceutical industry in the U.S. Methodology: This paper represents a thorough literature review of the multifaceted sources including: studies, books, peer reviewed journals, U.S. government sources (i.e. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, etc.). Discussion: In the thirty years pharmaceutical companies have consistently developed and launched new medicines, bringing hope to sick or – at risk patients. They also usually provide above the average financial returns for its shareholders. U.S. pharmaceutical companies had as their goal to discover blockbuster drugs. Blockbuster drugs are generally defined as drugs that solve medical problems common to hundreds of millions of people and, at the same time generate large sales increases and profits for the pharmaceutical companies. The main approach of these companies includes huge investments in research and development (R&D), innovation, marketing and sales. The trend analysis shows that for the most part the era of blockbuster drugs is nearing an end. Conclusion: Numerous blockbuster drugs will be coming off patent in the next few years, opening the way to generics and eliminating a major source of the industry’s profits. Still, there is plenty of room for improvement in the medications people take while there is no shortage of human suffering to alleviate. It is doubtful whether big pharmaceutical firms will be able to pursue these goals within the old model of developing exclusive new drugs that can be sold further in the future. In the past, medicines for the ailments that were never before addressed, like anti-cholesterol or anti-depression drugs were developed. Currently, and in the future, it is expected that only blockbuster modifications will be developed. This phenomenon is expected to create market saturation, which will significantly reduce profits. The business model that drove the major drug makers’ success is not working anymore. Pharmaceutical companies must create new ways and to bring new ideas. The survivors will be those that market strategies supported by innovative approaches and winning capabilities. PMID:24511277

The Social Environment and Childbearing Expectations: Implications for Strength-Based Sexual Health Interventions for Latino Youth.

PubMed

vanDommelen-Gonzalez, Evan; Deardorff, Julianna; Herd, Denise; Minnis, Alexandra M

2016-06-01

In the United States, adolescent childbearing is disproportionately higher among Latino youth, a growing population facing substantial social exclusion. Exploring the relationship between the social environment and sexual health outcomes among Latino youth may offer insights into the development of novel interventions. In this study, Latino youth in partnerships were recruited from neighborhood venues in San Francisco and completed in-depth interviews. Youth reported a desire to complete higher education goals prior to starting a family to improve future opportunities and further personal development. Youth stated that social network members, family and partners, were supportive of their individual childbearing expectations. Social environment barriers tied to poverty, immigration status, and gang violence hindered educational attainment. Some differences were noted by gender and immigrant generation. Building on protective social ties and creating avenues in poor, urban neighborhoods for Latino youth to fully access educational opportunities may counter early childbearing and improve sexual health.

Fission Surface Power Technology Development Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palac, Donald T.; Mason, Lee S.; Harlow, Scott

2009-01-01

With the potential future deployment of a lunar outpost there is expected to be a clear need for a high-power, lunar surface power source to support lunar surface operations independent of the day-night cycle, and Fission Surface Power (FSP) is a very effective solution for power levels above a couple 10 s of kWe. FSP is similarly enabling for the poorly illuminated surface of Mars. The power levels/requirements for a lunar outpost option are currently being studied, but it is known that cost is clearly a predominant concern to decision makers. This paper describes the plans of NASA and the DOE to execute an affordable fission surface power system technology development project to demonstrate sufficient technology readiness of an affordable FSP system so viable and cost-effective FSP system options will be available when high power lunar surface system choices are expected to be made in the early 2010s.

Indian mental concepts on children and adolescents.

PubMed

Sitholey, Prabhat; Agarwal, Vivek; Vrat, Satya

2013-01-01

Ancient Indian mental concepts of children and adolescents are very similar to the contemporary modern concepts. The ancient concepts were based on a very positive regard for the children's development, education and future independence, adult role and contribution to society. Children were wanted and considered precious. The children were categorized in to 4 different varnas based on their intelligence, abilities, merit and aptitude and educated accordingly, away from their home, at Gurukuls. They had universal right to education. Girls received attention equal to boys. The boys were expected to earn their livelihood, while the girls were expected to be homemakers. Graduation of the young person at the end of education and return to home marked the emancipation from adolescence. Children's physical and mental health and its disorders were given due attention. Aetiology and treatment of physical and mental disorders was in accordance with the overall scientific development of those times.

The future of medical diagnostics: large digitized databases.

PubMed

Kerr, Wesley T; Lau, Edward P; Owens, Gwen E; Trefler, Aaron

2012-09-01

The electronic health record mandate within the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 will have a far-reaching affect on medicine. In this article, we provide an in-depth analysis of how this mandate is expected to stimulate the production of large-scale, digitized databases of patient information. There is evidence to suggest that millions of patients and the National Institutes of Health will fully support the mining of such databases to better understand the process of diagnosing patients. This data mining likely will reaffirm and quantify known risk factors for many diagnoses. This quantification may be leveraged to further develop computer-aided diagnostic tools that weigh risk factors and provide decision support for health care providers. We expect that creation of these databases will stimulate the development of computer-aided diagnostic support tools that will become an integral part of modern medicine.

Challenges faced in long term ventricular assist device support.

PubMed

Ikegami, Hirohisa; Kurlansky, Paul; Takeda, Koji; Naka, Yoshifumi

2016-08-01

The development of ventricular assist device (VAD) has been one of the revolutionary advancements in end-stage heart failure management. Although the device has developed and improved significantly over the last few decades, we still face multiple challenges. This review will discuss quality of life, survival, and clinically encountered complications in patients with VAD support. The literature was extensively reviewed for studies describing the above topic area. We describe the impact of major challenges faced in VAD support and discuss their future and expectations. Expert commentary: The technological advancement of VADs has contributed to major improvement of overall survival, enhancement of quality of life and decrease of incidence of complications. It is expected that technologies will continue to evolve. At the same time, the indications for and timing of device implantation, and selection of device type are continuously important in clinical practice setting.

Satellite solar power - Will it pay off

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.

1977-01-01

A cost analysis is presented for front-end investments required for the development of a satellite solar power system. The methodology used makes use of risk analysis techniques to quantify the present state of knowledge relevant to the construction and operation of a satellite solar power station 20 years in the future. Results are used to evaluate the 'expected value' of a three-year research program providing additional information which will be used as a basis for a decision to either continue development of the concept at an increasing funding level or to terminate or drastically alter the program. The program is costed phase by phase, and a decision tree is constructed. The estimated probability of success for the research and studies phase is .540. The expected value of a program leading to the construction of 120 systems at a rate of four per year is 12.433 billion dollars.

Medical Training Experience and Expectations Regarding Future Medical Practice of Medical Students at the University of Cape Verde.

PubMed

Delgado, Antonio Pedro; Soares Martins, Antonieta; Ferrinho, Paulo

2017-10-31

Cape Verde is a small insular developing state. Its first experience of undergraduate medical education began in October 2015. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the professional expectations and profile of the first class of medical students at the University of Cape Verde. A piloted, standardized questionnaire, with closed and open-ended questions, was distributed to registered medical students attending classes on the day of the survey. All data were analyzed using SPSS. Students decided to study medicine in their mid-teens with relatives and friends having had significant influence over their decisions. Other major reasons for choosing medical training include "to take care of other people", "fascination for the subject matters of medicine" and "I have always wanted to". The degree of feminization of the student population is extremely high (20/25; 80.0%). Medical students are in general satisfied with the training program, and have expectations that the training received will allow them to be good professionals. Nevertheless, they consider the course too theoretical. Medical students know that this represents an opportunity for them to contribute to public welfare. Nonetheless, their expectations are to combine public sector practice with private work. Medical students come mostly from Santiago Island where the Capital of the Country is located. They still do not know about their future area of specialization. But all of those who want to specialize want to do so abroad. They mostly expect to follow hospital careers rather than health administration or family and community medicine. This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge about medical students' difficulties and expectations regarding medical schools or curriculums in lusophone countries. The decision to invest in the training of local physicians is justified by the need to be less dependent on foreigners. Local postgraduate medical training programs are already considered a priority for the immediate future. Cape Verde is pursuing a bold strategy to deal with a shortage of medical doctors. The problems experienced by medical students provide an important insight to help the new medical school to provide a better learning environment for students. The fact that students are not sure about their future area of specialization is an opportunity to guide them towards the areas of the health system with pressing needs. The current feminization of the medical workforce will be sustained with the profile of the present intake, hence the need to take this into account in workforce planning.

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

2017-01-01

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules, and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Bigler, Mark

2016-01-01

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

Children of Misfortune: Early Adversity and Cumulative Inequality in Perceived Life Trajectories1

PubMed Central

Schafer, Markus H.; Ferraro, Kenneth F.; Mustillo, Sarah A.

2011-01-01

Adversity early in life may alter pathways of aging, but what interpretive processes can soften the blow of early insults? Drawing from cumulative inequality theory, the authors analyze trajectories of life evaluations and then consider whether early adversity offsets favorable expectations for the future. Results reveal that early adversity contributes to more negative views of the past but rising expectations for the future. Early adversity also has enduring effects on life evaluations, offsetting the influence of buoyant expectations. The findings draw attention to the limits of human agency under the constraints of early adversity—a process described as biographical structuration. PMID:21648247

Parents' Role in Adolescents' Educational Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rimkute, Laura; Hirvonen, Riikka; Tolvanen, Asko; Aunola, Kaisa; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

2012-01-01

The present study examined the extent to which mothers' and fathers' expectations for their offspring's future education, their level of education, and adolescents' academic achievement predict adolescents' educational expectations. To investigate this, 230 adolescents were examined twice while they were in comprehensive school (in the 7th and 9th…

Outcome Expectations: Looking to the Past and Potential Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fouad, Nadya A.; Guillen, Amy

2006-01-01

This article focuses on the construct of outcome expectations. It is argued that the construct has received relatively little attention in the vocational literature. The authors define outcome expectations, trace the precursors to the construct, provide a critique of the operationalization of the construct, and propose recommendations for future…

Students' Aspirations, Expectations and School Achievement: What Really Matters?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khattab, Nabil

2015-01-01

Using the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE), this study examines how different combinations of aspirations, expectations and school achievement can influence students' future educational behaviour (applying to university at the age of 17-18). The study shows that students with either high aspirations or high expectations have…

Melanoma immunotherapy: historical precedents, recent successes and future prospects.

PubMed

Raaijmakers, Marieke I G; Rozati, Sima; Goldinger, Simone M; Widmer, Daniel S; Dummer, Reinhard; Levesque, Mitchell P

2013-02-01

The idea of cancer immunotherapy has been around for more than a century; however, the first immunotherapeutic ipilimumab, an anti-CTLA-4 antibody, has only recently been approved by the US FDA for melanoma. With an increasing understanding of the immune response, it is expected that more therapies will follow. This review aims to provide a general overview of immunotherapy in melanoma. We first explain the development of cancer immunotherapy more than a century ago and the general opinions about it over time. This is followed by a general overview of the immune reaction in order to give insight into the possible targets for therapy. Finally, we will discuss the current therapies for melanoma, their shortcomings and why it is important to develop patient stratification criteria. We conclude with an overview of recent discoveries and possible future therapies.

Developing technology-enhanced active learning for medical education: challenges, solutions, and future directions.

PubMed

McCoy, Lise; Pettit, Robin K; Lewis, Joy H; Bennett, Thomas; Carrasco, Noel; Brysacz, Stanley; Makin, Inder Raj S; Hutman, Ryan; Schwartz, Frederic N

2015-04-01

Growing up in an era of video games and Web-based applications has primed current medical students to expect rapid, interactive feedback. To address this need, the A.T. Still University-School of Osteopathic Medicine in Arizona (Mesa) has developed and integrated a variety of approaches using technology-enhanced active learning for medical education (TEAL-MEd) into its curriculum. Over the course of 3 years (2010-2013), the authors facilitated more than 80 implementations of games and virtual patient simulations into the education of 550 osteopathic medical students. The authors report on 4 key aspects of the TEAL-MEd initiative, including purpose, portfolio of tools, progress to date regarding challenges and solutions, and future directions. Lessons learned may be of benefit to medical educators at academic and clinical training sites who wish to implement TEAL-MEd activities.

Development of terahertz laser diagnostics for electron density measurements.

PubMed

Kawahata, K; Akiyama, T; Tanaka, K; Nakayama, K; Okajima, S

2008-10-01

A two color laser interferometer using terahertz laser sources is under development for high performance operation on the large helical device and for future burning plasma experiments such as ITER. Through investigation of terahertz laser sources, we have achieved high power simultaneous oscillations at 57.2 and 47.6 microm of a CH(3)OD laser pumped by a cw 9R(8) CO(2) laser line. The laser wavelength around 50 microm is the optimum value for future fusion devices from the consideration of the beam refraction effect and signal-to-noise ratio for an expected phase shift due to plasma. In this article, recent progress of the terahertz laser diagnostics, especially in mechanical vibration compensation by using a two color laser operation and terahertz laser beam transmission through a dielectric waveguide, will be presented.

Antibiotic and Anti-Inflammatory Therapies for Cystic Fibrosis

PubMed Central

Chmiel, James F.; Konstan, Michael W.; Elborn, J. Stuart

2013-01-01

Cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease is characterized by chronic bacterial infection and an unremitting inflammatory response, which are responsible for most of CF morbidity and mortality. The median expected survival has increased from <6 mo in 1940 to >38 yr now. This dramatic improvement, although not great enough, is due to the development of therapies directed at secondary disease pathologies, especially antibiotics. The importance of developing treatments directed against the vigorous inflammatory response was realized in the 1990s. New therapies directed toward the basic defect are now visible on the horizon. However, the impact of these drugs on downstream pathological consequences is unknown. It is likely that antibiotics and anti-inflammatory drugs will remain an important part of the maintenance regimen for CF in the foreseeable future. Current and future antibiotic and anti-inflammatory therapies for CF are reviewed. PMID:23880054

Enviromnental Control and Life Support Systems for Mars Missions - Issues and Concerns for Planetary Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barta, Daniel J.; Anderson, Molly S.; Lange, Kevin

2015-01-01

Planetary protection represents an additional set of requirements that generally have not been considered by developers of technologies for Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS). Planetary protection guidelines will affect the kind of operations, processes, and functions that can take place during future human planetary exploration missions. Ultimately, there will be an effect on mission costs, including the mission trade space when planetary protection requirements begin to drive vehicle deisgn in a concrete way. Planetary protection requirements need to be considered early in technology development and mission programs in order to estimate these impacts and push back on requirements or find efficient ways to perform necessary functions. It is expected that planetary protection will be a significant factor during technology selection and system architecture design for future missions.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

2018-01-01

The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

The Underestimated Significance of Conditioning in Placebo Hypoalgesia and Nocebo Hyperalgesia

PubMed Central

Witthöft, Michael

2018-01-01

Placebo and nocebo effects are intriguing phenomena in pain perception with important implications for clinical research and practice because they can alleviate or increase pain. According to current theoretical accounts, these effects can be shaped by verbal suggestions, social observational learning, and classical conditioning and are necessarily mediated by explicit expectation. In this review, we focus on the contribution of conditioning in the induction of placebo hypoalgesia and nocebo hyperalgesia and present accumulating evidence that conditioning independent from explicit expectation can cause these effects. Especially studies using subliminal stimulus presentation and implicit conditioning (i.e., without contingency awareness) that bypass the development of explicit expectation suggest that conditioning without explicit expectation can lead to placebo and nocebo effects in pain perception. Because only few studies have investigated clinical samples, the picture seems less clear when it comes to patient populations with chronic pain. However, conditioning appears to be a promising means to optimize treatment. In order to get a better insight into the mechanisms of placebo and nocebo effects in pain and the possible benefits of conditioning compared to explicit expectation, future studies should carefully distinguish both methods of induction. PMID:29670678

Forecasting Impacts of Climate Change on Indicators of British Columbia's Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Keith Richard

Understanding the relationships between biodiversity and climate is essential for predicting the impact of climate change on broad-scale landscape processes. Utilizing indirect indicators of biodiversity derived from remotely sensed imagery, we present an approach to forecast shifts in the spatial distribution of biodiversity. Indirect indicators, such as remotely sensed plant productivity metrics, representing landscape seasonality, minimum growth, and total greenness have been linked to species richness over broad spatial scales, providing unique capacity for biodiversity modeling. Our goal is to map future spatial distributions of plant productivity metrics based on expected climate change and to quantify anticipated change to park habitat in British Columbia. Using an archival dataset sourced from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite from the years 1987 to 2007 at 1km spatial resolution, corresponding historical climate data, and regression tree modeling, we developed regional models of the relationships between climate and annual productivity growth. Historical interconnections between climate and annual productivity were coupled with three climate change scenarios modeled by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) to predict and map productivity components to the year 2065. Results indicate we can expect a warmer and wetter environment, which may lead to increased productivity in the north and higher elevations. Overall, seasonality is expected to decrease and greenness productivity metrics are expected to increase. The Coastal Mountains and high elevation edge habitats across British Columbia are forecasted to experience the greatest amount of change. In the future, protected areas may have potential higher greenness and lower seasonality as represented by indirect biodiversity indicators. The predictive model highlights potential gaps in protection along the central interior and Rocky Mountains. Protected areas are expected to experience the greatest change with indirect indicators located along mountainous elevations of British Columbia. Our indirect indicator approach to predict change in biodiversity provides resource managers with information to mitigate and adapt to future habitat dynamics. Spatially specific recommendations from our dataset provide information necessary for management. For instance, knowing there is a projected depletion of habitat representation in the East Rocky Mountains, sensitive species in the threatened Mountain Hemlock ecozone, or preservation of rare habitats in the decreasing greenness of the southern interior region is essential information for managers tasked with long term biodiversity conservation. Forecasting productivity levels, linked to the distribution of species richness, presents a novel approach for understanding the future implications of climate change on broad scale biodiversity.

A mixed methods analysis of experiences and expectations among early-career medical oncologists in Australia.

PubMed

Wong, W K Tim; Kirby, Emma; Broom, Alex; Sibbritt, David; Francis, Kay; Karapetis, Christos S; Karikios, Deme; Harrup, Rosemary; Lwin, Zarnie

2018-01-26

A viable and sustainable medical oncology profession is integral for meeting the increasing demand for quality cancer care. The aim of this study was to explore the workforce-related experiences, perceptions and career expectations of early-career medical oncologists in Australia. A mixed-methods design, including a survey (n  =  170) and nested qualitative semistructured interviews (n  =  14) with early-career medical oncologists. Recruitment was through the Medical Oncology Group of Australia. Qualitative data were thematically analyzed and for the survey results, logistic regression modeling was conducted. Early-career medical oncologists experienced uncertainty regarding their future employment opportunities. The competitive job market has made them cautious about securing a preferred job leading to a perceived need to improve their qualifications through higher degree training and research activities. The following themes and trends were identified from the qualitative and quantitative analyses: age, career stage and associated early-career uncertainty; locale, professional competition and training preferences; participation in research and evolving professional expectations; and workload and career development opportunities as linked to career uncertainty. Perceived diminished employment opportunities in the medical oncology profession, and shifting expectations to be "more qualified," have increased uncertainty among junior medical oncologists in terms of their future career prospects. Structural factors relating to adequate funding of medical oncology positions may facilitate or inhibit progressive change in the workforce and its sustainability. Workforce planning and strategies informed by findings from this study will be necessary in ensuring that both the needs of cancer patients and of medical oncologists are met. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Future Career Plans and Practice Patterns of Canadian Obstetrics and Gynaecology Residents in 2011.

PubMed

Burrows, Jason; Coolen, Jillian

2016-01-01

The practice patterns of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists continue to evolve with each new generation of physicians. Diversifying subspecialties, changes in resident duty hours, job market saturation, and desire for work-life balance are playing stronger roles. Professional practice direction and needs assessment may be aided by awareness of future Obstetrics and Gynaecology physician career plans and expectations. The objective of this study was to determine the expected career plans and practice patterns of Canadian Obstetrics and Gynaecology residents following residency. The SOGC Junior Member Committee administered its third career planning survey to Canadian Obstetrics and Gynaecology residents electronically in December 2011. The data collected was statistically analyzed and compared to previous surveys. There were 183 responses giving a response rate of 43%. More than one half of all residents were considering postgraduate training (58%). Projected practice patterns included: 84% maintaining obstetrical practice, 60% locuming, and 50% job-sharing. The majority of residents expected to work in a 6 to 10 person call group (48%), work 3 to 5 call shifts per month (72%), work 41 to 60 hours weekly (69%), and practise in a city with a population greater than 500 000 (45%). Only 18% of residents surveyed were in favour of streaming residency programs in Obstetrics and Gynaecology. Canadian resident career plan and expected practice pattern assessment remains an important tool for aiding in resource allocation and strategic development of care and training in Obstetrics and Gynaecology in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of BRICS' investment in vaccine development on the global vaccine market.

PubMed

Kaddar, Miloud; Milstien, Julie; Schmitt, Sarah

2014-06-01

Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa--the countries known as BRICS--have made considerable progress in vaccine production, regulation and development over the past 20 years. In 1993, all five countries were producing vaccines but the processes used were outdated and non-standardized, there was little relevant research and there was negligible international recognition of the products. By 2014, all five countries had strong initiatives for the development of vaccine technology and had greatly improved their national regulatory capacity. South Africa was then the only BRICS country that was not completely producing vaccines. South Africa is now in the process of re-establishing its own vaccine production and passing beyond the stage of simply importing, formulating and filling vaccine bulks. Changes in the public sector's price per dose of selected vaccines, the global market share represented by products from specific manufacturers, and the attractiveness, for multinational companies, of partnership and investment opportunities in BRICS companies have all been analysed. The results indicate that the BRICS countries have had a major impact on vaccine price and availability, with much of that impact attributable to the output of Indian vaccine manufacturers. China is expected to have a greater impact soon, given the anticipated development of Chinese vaccine manufacturers in the near future. BRICS' accomplishments in the field of vaccine development are expected to reshape the global vaccine market and accelerate access to vaccines in the developing world. The challenge is to turn these expectations into strategic actions and practical outcomes.

Getting What You Expect: Negative Social Expectations in Early Adolescence Predict Hostile Romantic Partnerships and Friendships into Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loeb, Emily L.; Tan, Joseph S.; Hessel, Elenda T.; Allen, Joseph P.

2018-01-01

Adolescents' negative expectations of their peers were examined as predictors of their future selection of hostile partners, in a community sample of 184 adolescents followed from ages 13 to 24. Utilizing observational data, close friend- and self-reports, adolescents with more negative expectations at age 13 were found to be more likely to form…

Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

2017-12-01

Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

Parental Problem Drinking, Marital Aggression, and Child Emotional Insecurity: A Longitudinal Investigation*

PubMed Central

Keller, Peggy S.; Gilbert, Lauren R.; Koss, Kalsea J.; Cummings, E. Mark; Davies, Patrick T.

2011-01-01

Objective: Marital aggression plays an important role in relations between parental problem drinking and child maladjustment. The purpose of the current study was to apply emotional security theory as a framework for understanding the role of marital aggression. Method: A community sample of 235 children in kindergarten participated once a year for 3 years. Parents completed measures of parental problem drinking and marital aggression, and children were interviewed about their emotional security reactions to marital conflict vignettes. Results: Greater parental problem drinking was directly associated with children's more negative emotional reactions to conflict. Maternal problem drinking predicted increased sad reactions and negative expectations for the future. Paternal problem drinking predicted increases in child anger reactions and negative expectations for the future. Parental problem drinking was also indirectly associated with child reactions via marital aggression. Conclusions: Results confirmed hypotheses that parental problem drinking would be related to child emotional insecurity and that associations would be indirect via greater marital conflict. Findings are interpreted in terms of emotional security theory as a framework for understanding the effects of parental problem drinking on marital aggression and child development. PMID:21906498

Parental problem drinking, marital aggression, and child emotional insecurity: a longitudinal investigation.

PubMed

Keller, Peggy S; Gilbert, Lauren R; Koss, Kalsea J; Cummings, E Mark; Davies, Patrick T

2011-09-01

Marital aggression plays an important role in relations between parental problem drinking and child maladjustment. The purpose of the current study was to apply emotional security theory as a framework for understanding the role of marital aggression. A community sample of 235 children in kindergarten participated once a year for 3 years. Parents completed measures of parental problem drinking and marital aggression, and children were interviewed about their emotional security reactions to marital conflict vignettes. Greater parental problem drinking was directly associated with children's more negative emotional reactions to conflict. Maternal problem drinking predicted increased sad reactions and negative expectations for the future. Paternal problem drinking predicted increases in child anger reactions and negative expectations for the future. Parental problem drinking was also indirectly associated with child reactions via marital aggression. Results confirmed hypotheses that parental problem drinking would be related to child emotional insecurity and that associations would be indirect via greater marital conflict. Findings are interpreted in terms of emotional security theory as a framework for understanding the effects of parental problem drinking on marital aggression and child development.

Role of nondestructive evaluation in civil aviation: historical development, current status, future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Hans J.

1995-07-01

Nondestructive evaluation has been used in civil aviation for 50 years. Until the arrival of the jet era it was mostly applied to component inspection. Since the damage-tolerant design philosophy was introduced by mandate for large transport aircraft, it has become an integral part of their design and maintenance. In the near future its role in the maintenance of aging small transport aircraft is expected to grow significantly. The most important factor contributing to the growing importance of NDE is the fact that the industry has been operating its aircraft much longer than originally envisioned, making it necessary to carefully monitor their structural condition to assure their airworthiness. NDE is helping making it economically feasible to operate aircraft for extended life times. Another major factor is the increased use of advanced materials, such as composites. Again, monitoring has to assure integrity. More recently, in an industry which has become highly competitive, NDE is becoming an important tool in the quest for reducing maintenance costs. The importance of NDE is expected to grow further.

Impact of innovations on future energy supply - chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR).

PubMed

Bittner, Christian

2013-01-01

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase of global energy demand by one-third during next 20 years together with a change in the global energy mix. A key-influencing factor is a strong expected increase in oil and gas production in the United States driven by 'new' technologies such as hydraulic fracturing. Chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR) is another strong growing technology with the potential of a step change innovation, which will help to secure future oil supply by turning resources into reserves. While conventional production methods give access to on average only one-third of original oil in place, the use of surfactants and polymers allows for recovery of up to another third of this oil. In the case of polymer flooding with poly acrylamide, the number of full field implementations has increased in recent years. In the meantime new polymers have been developed to cover previously unmet needs - such polymers can be applied in fields of high salinity and high temperature. Use of surfactants is in an earlier stage, but pilot tests show promising results.

Future trends in image coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, Ali

1993-01-01

The objective of this article is to present a discussion on the future of image data compression in the next two decades. It is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of certainty the breakthroughs in theory and developments, the milestones in advancement of technology and the success of the upcoming commercial products in the market place which will be the main factors in establishing the future stage to image coding. What we propose to do, instead, is look back at the progress in image coding during the last two decades and assess the state of the art in image coding today. Then, by observing the trends in developments of theory, software, and hardware coupled with the future needs for use and dissemination of imagery data and the constraints on the bandwidth and capacity of various networks, predict the future state of image coding. What seems to be certain today is the growing need for bandwidth compression. The television is using a technology which is half a century old and is ready to be replaced by high definition television with an extremely high digital bandwidth. Smart telephones coupled with personal computers and TV monitors accommodating both printed and video data will be common in homes and businesses within the next decade. Efficient and compact digital processing modules using developing technologies will make bandwidth compressed imagery the cheap and preferred alternative in satellite and on-board applications. In view of the above needs, we expect increased activities in development of theory, software, special purpose chips and hardware for image bandwidth compression in the next two decades. The following sections summarize the future trends in these areas.

Prospects for future experiments to search for nucleon decay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ayres, D.S.; Heller, K.; LoSecco, J.

1982-01-01

We review the status of theoretical expectations and experimental searches for nucleon decay, and predict the sensitivities which could be reached by future experiments. For the immediate future, we concur with the conclusions of the 1982 Summer Workshop on Proton Decay Experiments: all detectors now in operation or construction will be relatively insensitive to some potentially important decay modes. Next-generation experiments must therefore be designed to search for these modes, and should be undertaken whether or not present experiments detect nucleon decay in other modes. These future experiments should be designed to push the lifetime limits on all decay modesmore » to the levels at which irreducible cosmic-ray neutrino-induced backgrounds become important. Since the technology for these next-generation experiments is available now, the timetable for starting work on them will be determined by funding constraints and not by the need for extensive development of detectors. Efforts to develop advanced detector techniques should also be pursued, in order to mount more sensitive searches than can be envisioned using current technology, or to provide the most precise measurements possible of the properties of the nucleon decay interaction if it should occur at a detectable rate.« less

Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epple, D.; Hansen, L.P.

1981-12-01

An econometric model of US oil and natural gas discoveries is developed in this study. The econometric model is explicitly derived as the solution to the problem of maximizing the expected discounted after tax present value of revenues net of exploration, development, and production costs. The model contains equations representing producers' formation of price expectations and separate equations giving producers' optimal exploration decisions contingent on expected prices. A procedure is developed for imposing resource base constraints (e.g., ultimate recovery estimates based on geological analysis) when estimating the econometric model. The model is estimated using aggregate post-war data for the Unitedmore » States. Production from a given addition to proved reserves is assumed to follow a negative exponential path, and additions of proved reserves from a given discovery are assumed to follow a negative exponential path. Annual discoveries of oil and natural gas are estimated as latent variables. These latent variables are the endogenous variables in the econometric model of oil and natural gas discoveries. The model is estimated without resource base constraints. The model is also estimated imposing the mean oil and natural gas ultimate recovery estimates of the US Geological Survey. Simulations through the year 2020 are reported for various future price regimes.« less

Development of alcohol expectancies and early alcohol use in children and adolescents: A systematic review.

PubMed

Smit, Koen; Voogt, Carmen; Hiemstra, Marieke; Kleinjan, Marloes; Otten, Roy; Kuntsche, Emmanuel

2018-03-01

Developmental changes in alcohol expectancies (AE) have been proposed to lead to alcohol use initiation and later alcohol use in adolescence. This systematic review aims to provide longitudinal evidence of the development of AE and the relation of AE to alcohol outcomes from childhood to late adolescence (4-18 years old). A computer-assisted search of relevant articles identified 1602 studies, of which 43 studies (conducted between 1996 and 2016) were selected. First, negative AE decline and positive AE increase in early adolescence. Moreover, alcohol use (initiation) seems to strongly influence changes in AE. Second, AE predict alcohol use initiation and drinking patterns over time. Third, longitudinal predictors of AE could be divided into individual predictors (i.e., alcohol-related cognitions, psychopathology, and genetics) and environmental predictors (i.e., family, peer, and media influences). Lastly, the results indicated that AE function as mediators of the relations between the various individual and environmental predictors and adolescent's alcohol use. Alcohol expectancies form an important framework through which drinking behavior can be explained over time. Due to the diverse findings on the predictors of AE, future longitudinal studies should further clarify the factors that are essential in the development of AE and adolescent's later alcohol use. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Anyone Know the Answer to that Question? Individual Differences in Judging Answerability

PubMed Central

Karlsson, Bodil S. A.; Allwood, Carl Martin; Buratti, Sandra

2016-01-01

Occasionally people may attempt to judge whether a question can be answered today, or if not, if it can be answered in the future. For example, a person may consider whether enough is known about the dangers of living close to a nuclear plant, or to a major electricity cable, for them to be willing to do so, and state-authorities may consider whether questions about the dangers of new technologies have been answered, or in a reasonable future can be, for them to be willing to invest money in research aiming develop such technologies. A total of 476 participants, for each of 22 knowledge questions, either judged whether it was answerable today (current answerability), or judged when it could be answered (future answerability). The knowledge questions varied with respect to the expected consensus concerning their answerability: consensus questions (high expected consensus), non-consensus questions (lower expected consensus), and illusion questions (formulated to appear answerable, but with crucial information absent). The questions’ judged answerability level on the two scales was highly correlated. For both scales, consensus questions were rated more answerable than the non-consensus questions, with illusion questions falling in-between. The result for the illusion questions indicates that a feeling of answerability can be created even when it is unlikely that somebody can come up with an answer. The results also showed that individual difference variables influenced the answerability judgments. Higher levels of belief in certainty of knowledge, mankind’s knowledge, and mankind’s efficacy were related to judging the non-consensus questions as more answerable. Participants rating the illusion questions as answerable rated the other answerability questions as more, or equally, answerable compared to the other participants and showed tendencies to prefer a combination of more epistemic default processing and less intellectual processing. PMID:26793164

Expectations and outcome skills of a generalist health care administrator.

PubMed

Jones, V B; Taylor, L C

1990-01-01

The question of the degree of technical versus managerial competence to be found in future graduates from health administration programs is not easily resolved. In the HIMSS 1988 survey of CIOs the attributes needed for success are listed in descending rank order as follows: leadership ability, vision/imagination, knowledge of hospital systems, business acumen, decisiveness, and technical competence. CIOs ranked technical competence as less important than other attributes associated with general management success. The expectations for attitudes, knowledge, and skills presented in this article support the greater importance of management abilities relative to pure technical competence. However, it is vital that an appropriate level of technical knowledge and skill be maintained to enable future alumni of health administration programs to function effectively as administrators. Depending on their role in a health care organization, greater or lesser technical knowledge may be needed. Those pursuing a career path toward CIO must, of necessity, have greater technical knowledge and skill. We have discussed necessary and expected attitudes, knowledge, and skills that will be needed by the generalist health administration graduate in the future. It will be important to develop and maintain an attitude that MIS is a strategic tool, that health care technology is a corporate asset, and that information is power. Graduates must recognize the necessity of maintaining and enhancing their knowledge and skills through continuing education. The knowledge base of MIS education should focus on determining information needs to support strategic goals, understanding of general systems theory, principles of systems analysis, design, implementation and maintenance, awareness and exposure to standard application software, and an awareness of external sources of data.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Threat Diversity Will Erode Mammalian Phylogenetic Diversity in the Near Future

PubMed Central

Jono, Clémentine M. A.; Pavoine, Sandrine

2012-01-01

To reduce the accelerating rate of phylogenetic diversity loss, many studies have searched for mechanisms that could explain why certain species are at risk, whereas others are not. In particular, it has been demonstrated that species might be affected by both extrinsic threat factors as well as intrinsic biological traits that could render a species more sensitive to extinction; here, we focus on extrinsic factors. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature developed a new classification of threat types, including climate change, urbanization, pollution, agriculture and aquaculture, and harvesting/hunting. We have used this new classification to analyze two main factors that could explain the expected future loss of mammalian phylogenetic diversity: 1. differences in the type of threats that affect mammals and 2. differences in the number of major threats that accumulate for a single species. Our results showed that Cetartiodactyla, Diprotodontia, Monotremata, Perissodactyla, Primates, and Proboscidea could lose a high proportion of their current phylogenetic diversity in the coming decades. In contrast, Chiroptera, Didelphimorphia, and Rodentia could lose less phylogenetic diversity than expected if extinctions were random. Some mammalian clades, including Marsupiala, Chiroptera, and a subclade of Primates, are affected by particular threat types, most likely due solely to their geographic locations and associations with particular habitats. However, regardless of the geography, habitat, and taxon considered, it is not the threat type, but the threat diversity that determines the extinction risk for species and clades. Thus, some mammals might be randomly located in areas subjected to a large diversity of threats; they might also accumulate detrimental traits that render them sensitive to different threats, which is a characteristic that could be associated with large body size. Any action reducing threat diversity is expected to have a significant impact on future mammalian phylogeny. PMID:23029443

Future Time Orientation and Student Expectations: An Empirical Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amyx, Douglas; Bristow, Dennis

2004-01-01

Navajo and Anglo college students' time orientation scores from the Future Time Orientation (FTO) Scale (Bristol & Amyx, 1996) were analyzed and compared. Anglo students were found to be significantly more future time oriented in two of the three dimensions: temporal distance and involvement with time. Future time orientation was used to explain…

Can Technological Improvements Reduce the Cost of Proton Radiation Therapy?

PubMed

Schippers, Jacobus Maarten; Lomax, Anthony; Garonna, Adriano; Parodi, Katia

2018-04-01

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the more extensive application of proton therapy in a clinical and preferably hospital-based environment. However, broader adoption of proton therapy has been hindered by the costs of treatment, which are still much higher than those in advanced photon therapy. This article presents an overview of on-going technical developments, which have a reduction of the capital investment or operational costs either as a major goal or as a potential outcome. Developments in instrumentation for proton therapy, such as gantries and accelerators, as well as facility layout and efficiency in treatment logistics will be discussed in this context. Some of these developments are indeed expected to reduce the costs. The examples will show, however, that a dramatic cost reduction of proton therapy is not expected in the near future. Although current developments will certainly contribute to a gradual decrease of the treatment costs in the coming years, many steps will still have to be made to achieve a much lower cost per treatment. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Teaching primary prevention of Alzheimer's disease: does it make a difference?

PubMed

Clevenger, Carolyn K; Cantey, Shileah; Quinn, Mary Ellen

2010-07-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is one of the most feared illnesses among older adults. Although no cure exists, an emerging body of literature has outlined potentially risk-reducing behaviors. As evidence has become available on risk reduction, community organizations and advocacy groups have developed health education courses on the topic. This study examines the impact of one educational program on the audience's efficacy expectations and outcome expectations for behavior change. Participants included 53 older adults residing in a continuing care retirement community. The study used a pretest-posttest design with an experimental group (n = 33) and a control group (n = 20). Topics on weekly classes included the relationship between cardiovascular factors and AD, dietary factors implicated in AD, and mental stimulation to reduce AD risk. Class sessions consisted of lecture, discussion, and demonstration. Between-group differences were found for both efficacy (P = .016) and outcome expectations (P = .000). Within-group differences were only significant for increased outcome expectations related to literature-derived behaviors (P = .000). Future work should focus on action and prevention and on replication of the educational program's evaluation in a more diverse population.

Addressing psychosocial issues in cancer survivorship: past, present and future.

PubMed

Walsh, Katherine

2016-12-01

With a burgeoning population of cancer survivors, organizations in the USA and around the world are considering how to address the many long-term and late psychosocial effects of cancer and cancer treatment. This article reviews the changing landscape of survivorship care over the past 50 years, from the time when there were relatively few survivors to the future, when the number of cancer survivors in the USA alone is expected to reach close to 20 million. Institute of Medicine Reports, intra-organizational summits and accrediting standards that have influenced the development of survivorship care plans and programs and the roles of the Internet and smartphone applications along with oncology specialist and primary care providers are discussed.

High-Intensity Focused Ultrasound Therapy: an Overview for Radiologists

PubMed Central

Kim, Young-sun; Choi, Min Joo; Lim, Hyo Keun; Choi, Dongil

2008-01-01

High-intensity focused ultrasound therapy is a novel, emerging, therapeutic modality that uses ultrasound waves, propagated through tissue media, as carriers of energy. This completely non-invasive technology has great potential for tumor ablation as well as hemostasis, thrombolysis and targeted drug/gene delivery. However, the application of this technology still has many drawbacks. It is expected that current obstacles to implementation will be resolved in the near future. In this review, we provide an overview of high-intensity focused ultrasound therapy from the basic physics to recent clinical studies with an interventional radiologist's perspective for the purpose of improving the general understanding of this cutting-edge technology as well as speculating on future developments. PMID:18682666

Past, present, and future design of urban drainage systems with focus on Danish experiences.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2011-01-01

Climate change will influence the water cycle substantially, and extreme precipitation will become more frequent in many regions in the years to come. How should this fact be incorporated into design of urban drainage systems, if at all? And how important is climate change compared to other changes over time? Based on an analysis of the underlying key drivers of changes that are expected to affect urban drainage systems the current problems and their predicted development over time are presented. One key issue is management of risk and uncertainties and therefore a framework for design and analysis of urban structures in light of present and future uncertainties is presented.

Functional membranes. Present and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kunitake, T.

1982-01-01

The present situation and the future development of the functional membrane are discussed. It is expected that functional membranes will play increasingly greater roles in the chemical industry of the coming decade. These membranes are formed from polymer films, liquid membranes or bilayer membranes. The two most important technologies based on the polymeric membrane are reverse osmosis and ion exchange. The liquid membrane is used for separation of ionic species; an extension of the solvent extraction process. By using appropriate ligands and ionophores, highly selective separations are realized. The active transport is made possible if the physical and chemical potentials are applied to the transport process. More advanced functional membranes may be designed on the basis of the synthetic bilayer membrane.

[Future psychotherapists? Vocational plans and motivation for choosing psychotherapy as a career in german psychology students].

PubMed

Glaesmer, Heide; Spangenberg, Lena; Sonntag, Astrid; Brähler, Elmar; Strauss, Bernhard

2010-12-01

in Germany psychology students can be seen as the major personal resource in psychotherapy. Nevertheless there are few studies on their vocational plans and their interest in psychotherapeutic training. 480 psychology students completed a self-developed questionnaire on their career expectations. 90% of respondents report interest in clinical work and psychotherapeutic training. Most frequently they mention improving therapeutic competencies and career options as pros and current training requirements as cons. Their theoretical orientation (38% behaviour therapy, 19% psychodynamic therapy) is associated with their psychotherapeutic knowledge, study conditions and respondent's characteristics. psychology students consider working and training conditions for psychologists and psychotherapists, when thinking about their future career.

Unanswered questions in ecology.

PubMed Central

May, R

1999-01-01

This is very much a personal view of what I think are some of the most important unanswered questions in ecology. That is, these are the questions that I expect will be high on the research agenda over the coming century. The list is organized hierarchically, beginning with questions at the level of individual populations, and progressing through interacting populations to entire communities or ecosystems. I will try to guess both at possible advances in basic knowledge and at potential applications. The only thing that is certain about this view of the future is that much of it will surely turn out to be wrong, and many of the most interesting future developments will be quite unforeseen. PMID:10670015

Initial Report of the Deans Cyber Warfare Ad Hoc Committee

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-22

in a cyber warfare environment. Among the more notable recent developments have been the establishment of a new Cyber Warfare Command (USCYBERCOM) at...information-warfare-centric organization. Clearly, future Naval Academy graduates will be expected to know more about cyber warfare than those we have...graduated in the past. The Academic Dean and Provost tasked an ad hoc committeethe Cyber Warfare ad hoc Committeeto examine how USNA can best ensure that

Biotechnology for the extractive metals industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brierley, James A.

1990-01-01

Biotechnology is an alternative process for the extraction of metals, the beneficiation of ores, and the recovery of metals from aqueous systems. Currently, microbial-based processes are used for leaching copper and uranium, enhancing the recovery of gold from refractory ores, and treating industrial wastewater to recover metal values. Future developments, emanating from fundamental and applied research and advances through genetic engineering, are expected to increase the use and efficiency of these biotechnological processes.

Coping with data from Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Marjory J.

1991-01-01

The volume of data from future NASA space missions will be phenomenal. Here, we examine the expected data flow from the Space Station Freedom and describe techniques that are being developed to transport and process that data. Networking in space, the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), recommendations of the Consultative Committee for Space Data systems (CCSDS), NASA institutional ground support, communications system architecture, and principal data types and formats are discussed.

Aircraft energy efficiency. Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Six advanced technology development projects that could cut fuel consumption of future civil air transports by as much as 50 percent are highlighted. These include improved engine components; better engine design; thin short blades for turboprop aircaft; using composite primary structures for weight reduction; the use of supercritical wings, higher aspect ratio, and winglets for improved aerodynamics; active controls; and laminar flow control. The time span of each of the six efforts and NASA's expected expenditures are also discussed.

Highly branched polyethylenes as lubricant viscosity and friction modifiers

DOE PAGES

Robinson, Joshua W.; Zhou, Yan; Qu, Jun; ...

2016-10-08

A series of highly branched polyethylene (BPE) were prepared and evaluated in a Group I base oil as potential viscosity and friction modifiers. The performance of these BPEs supports the expected dual functionality. Changes in polarity, topology, and molecular weight of the BPEs showed significant effects on the lubricants' performance with respect to viscosity index and friction reduction. In conclusion, this study provides scientific insights into polymer design for future lubricant development activities.

Advanced Transmission Components Investigation Program. Bearing and Seal Development.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-08-01

STATEMENT The purpose of the program was to evaluate a modified tapered roller bearing component incorporating a VASCO-X2 integral inner race and ribbed...cup for use on the spiral bevel input shaft of an advanced helicopter main transmission. The test results indicated that this bearing concept, with its...in future transmissions. The limited oil-off survivability testing conducted did not produce expected results; however, it shovged that this type of

Concepts for on-board satellite image registration. Volume 3: Impact of VLSI/VHSIC on satellite on-board signal processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aanstoos, J. V.; Snyder, W. E.

1981-01-01

Anticipated major advances in integrated circuit technology in the near future are described as well as their impact on satellite onboard signal processing systems. Dramatic improvements in chip density, speed, power consumption, and system reliability are expected from very large scale integration. Improvements are expected from very large scale integration enable more intelligence to be placed on remote sensing platforms in space, meeting the goals of NASA's information adaptive system concept, a major component of the NASA End-to-End Data System program. A forecast of VLSI technological advances is presented, including a description of the Defense Department's very high speed integrated circuit program, a seven-year research and development effort.

The Malleability of Possible Selves and Expectations regarding Aging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bardach, Shoshana H.; Gayer, Christopher C.; Clinkinbeard, Tiffanie; Zanjani, Faika; Watkins, John F.

2010-01-01

Many people are apprehensive about old age and their future years. This pilot study sought to improve participants' sense of possibility in, and expectations for, old age. Students and middle-aged volunteers completed a survey including the Expectations Regarding Aging 38-item questionnaire (ERA-38) and a possible-selves questionnaire before and…

Self-Concepts, Locus of Control and Performance Expectations of Learning Disabled Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, H.; Saklofski, D. H.

1985-01-01

Compared to 45 normally achieving students, 45 learning disabled six- to 12-year-olds had lower self-concepts, more external locus of control orientations, and lower performance expectations. Children new to the resource room had higher expectations for future success than Ss with experience in the resource room. (CL)

Future Perspective of Single-Molecule FRET Biosensors and Intravital FRET Microscopy.

PubMed

Hirata, Eishu; Kiyokawa, Etsuko

2016-09-20

Förster (or fluorescence) resonance energy transfer (FRET) is a nonradiative energy transfer process between two fluorophores located in close proximity to each other. To date, a variety of biosensors based on the principle of FRET have been developed to monitor the activity of kinases, proteases, GTPases or lipid concentration in living cells. In addition, generation of biosensors that can monitor physical stresses such as mechanical power, heat, or electric/magnetic fields is also expected based on recent discoveries on the effects of these stressors on cell behavior. These biosensors can now be stably expressed in cells and mice by transposon technologies. In addition, two-photon excitation microscopy can be used to detect the activities or concentrations of bioactive molecules in vivo. In the future, more sophisticated techniques for image acquisition and quantitative analysis will be needed to obtain more precise FRET signals in spatiotemporal dimensions. Improvement of tissue/organ position fixation methods for mouse imaging is the first step toward effective image acquisition. Progress in the development of fluorescent proteins that can be excited with longer wavelength should be applied to FRET biosensors to obtain deeper structures. The development of computational programs that can separately quantify signals from single cells embedded in complicated three-dimensional environments is also expected. Along with the progress in these methodologies, two-photon excitation intravital FRET microscopy will be a powerful and valuable tool for the comprehensive understanding of biomedical phenomena. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aspirations, Expectations and Delinquency: The Moderating Effect of Impulse Control.

PubMed

Mahler, Alissa; Simmons, Cortney; Frick, Paul J; Steinberg, Laurence; Cauffman, Elizabeth

2017-07-01

Although prior research finds a robust link between delinquent behavior and expectations, or an adolescent's perceived likelihood of obtaining one's future goals, fewer studies have evaluated aspirations, or the perceived importance of achieving one's goals. In addition, few studies consider how individual traits such as impulsivity affect the degree to which expectations and aspirations motivate or deter delinquent behavior. We contribute to this body of research by evaluating the independent effects of expectations and aspirations, and the aspiration-expectation gap (i.e., strain) on delinquent behavior during the year following an adolescent's first arrest using a large (N = 1117), racially/ethnically diverse sample of male adolescents (46.55% Latino, 35.81% Black, 14.95% White, and 2.69% Other race). In addition, we considered how impulse control interacts with expectations, aspirations, and strain to motivate behavior. Our results indicated that both aspirations, expectations and strain uniquely influence criminal behavior. Importantly, aspirations interacted with impulse control, such that aspirations affected delinquency only among youth with higher impulse control. Our findings suggest that aspirations may only influence behavior if youth also have the psychosocial capabilities to consider their future aspirations when behaving in the present.

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R

2007-01-01

The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

Opportunity for America: Mexico`s coal future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, V.W.

1993-09-01

This study examines the history, current status and future prospects for increased coal use in Mexico. Environmental implications of the power-generation capacity expansion plans are examined in general terms. Mexican environmental law and regulations are briefly reviewed along with the new sense of urgency in the cleanup of existing environmental problems and avoidance of new problems as clearly mandated in recent Mexican government policy initiatives. It is expected that new capital facilities will need to incorporate the latest in process and technology to comply with existing environmental regulation. Technology developments which address these issues are identified. What opportunities have newmore » initiatives caused by the recent diversification of Mexico`s energy economy offered US firms? This report looks at the potential future use of coal in the Mexican energy economy, examining this issue with an eye toward identifying markets that might be available to US coal producers and the best way to approach them. Market opportunities are identified by examining new developments in the Mexican economy generally and the energy economy particularly. These developments are examined in light of the current situation and the history which brought Mexico to its present status.« less

Product-line administration: a framework for redefining medical record department services.

PubMed

Postal, S N

1990-06-01

Product-line administration is a viable approach for managing medical records services in an environment that demands high quantity and quality service levels. Product-line administration directs medical record department team members to look outside of the department and seek input from the customers it is intended to serve. The feedback received may be alarming at first, as the current state of products usually reveals a true lack of customer input. As the planning, defining, managing, and marketing phases are implemented, the road will not be easy and rewards will be slow to come. Product-line administration does not provide quick fixes, but it does provide long-term problem resolution as products are refined and new products developed to meet customer needs and expectations. In addition to better meeting the needs of the department's external customers, the department's internal customers' needs and expectations will be addressed. The participative management approach will help nurture each team member's creativity. The team members will have the opportunity to reach their full potential while reaping the rewards and benefits of providing products and services that meet the needs and expectations of all department customers. The future of the health care industry promises more changes as the country moves toward some form of prospective payment in the ambulatory setting. Reactive management and the constant struggle to catch up can no longer be accepted as a management approach. It is imperative that the medical record department be viewed as a business with product lines composed of quality products. The planning, defining, managing, and marketing components of product-line administration afford responsiveness to the current situation and the development of quality products that will ensure that medical record departments are prepared for the future.

Development of Adygine glacier complex (glacier and proglacial lakes) and its link to outburst hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falatkova, Kristyna; Schöner, Wolfgang; Häusler, Hermann; Reisenhofer, Stefan; Neureiter, Anton; Sobr, Miroslav; Jansky, Bohumir

2017-04-01

Mountain glacier retreat has a well-known impact on life of local population - besides anxiety over water supply for agriculture, industry, or households, it has proved to have a direct influence on glacier hazard occurrence. The paper focuses on lake outburst hazard specifically, and aims to describe the previous and future development of Adygine glacier complex and identify its relationship to the hazard. The observed glacier is situated in the Northern Tien Shan, with an area of 4 km2 in northern exposition at an elevation range of 3,500-4,200 m a.s.l. The study glacier ranks in the group of small-sized glaciers, therefore we expect it to respond faster to changes of the climate compared to larger ones. Below the glacier there is a three-level cascade of proglacial lakes at different stages of development. The site has been observed sporadically since 1960s, however, closer study has been carried out since 2007. Past development of the glacier-lake complex is analyzed by combination of satellite imagery interpretations and on-site measurements (geodetic and bathymetric survey). A glacier mass balance model is used to simulate future development of the glacier resulting from climate scenarios. We used the simulated future glacier extent and the glacier base topography provided by GPR survey to assess potential for future lake formation. This enables us to assess the outburst hazard for the three selected lakes with an outlook for possible/probable hazard changes linked to further complex succession/progression (originating from climate change scenarios). Considering the proximity of the capital Bishkek, spreading settlements, and increased demand for tourism-related infrastructure within the main valley, it is of high importance to identify the present and possible future hazards that have a potential to affect this region.

Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

PubMed Central

Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

2015-01-01

Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

[Centennial retrospective on the evolution and development of nursing research in Taiwan].

PubMed

Tzeng, Wen-Chii; Lu, Meei-Shiow

2014-08-01

Nursing is a distinct branch of science. Nursing research is not only key to developing professional knowledge and but also to promoting nursing as an independent discipline. This paper describes the development and outcomes of nursing research over the past 100 years and then explores the factors that have influenced the focus of nursing research in the past. Findings may be applied to future efforts to promote nursing research. The authors hope that nurses integrate the best research evidence, the best clinical judgment, and the expectations of patients in order to provide the best quality of nursing care through reflection and praxis in nursing research.

The Development and Validation of a Transformational Leadership Survey for Substance Use Treatment Programs

PubMed Central

Edwards, Jennifer R.; Knight, Danica K.; Broome, Kirk M.; Flynn, Patrick M.

2014-01-01

Directors in substance use treatment programs are increasingly required to respond to external economic and socio-political pressures. Leadership practices that promote innovation can help offset these challenges. Using focus groups, factor analysis, and validation instruments, the current study developed and established psychometrics for the Survey of Transformational Leadership. In 2008, clinical directors were evaluated on leadership practices by 214 counselors within 57 programs in four U.S. regions. Nine themes emerged: integrity, sensible risk, demonstrates innovation, encourages innovation, inspirational motivation, supports others, develops others, delegates tasks, and expects excellence. Study implications, limitations and suggested future directions are discussed. Funding from NIDA. PMID:20509734

The Development and Demonstration of a 360m/10 kA HTS DC Power Cable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Liye

With the quick development of renewable energy, it is expected that the electric power from renewable energy would be the dominant one for the future power grid. Due to the specialty of the renewable energy, the HVDC power transmission would be very useful for the transmission of electric power from renewable energy. DC power cable made of High Tc Superconductor (HTS) would be a possible alternative for the construction of HVDC power transmission system. In this chapter, we report the development and demonstration of a 360 m/10 kA HTS DC power cable and the test results.

Shaping NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Workforce Development Initiative to Address Industry Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosage, David; Meeson, Blanche W. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

It has been well recognized that the commercial remote sensing industry will expand in new directions, resulting in new applications, thus requiring a larger, more skilled workforce to fill the new positions. In preparation for this change, NASA has initiated a Remote Sensing Professional Development Program to address the workforce needs of this emerging industry by partnering with the private sector, academia, relevant professional societies, and other R&D organizations. Workforce needs will in part include understanding current industry concerns, personnel competencies, current and future skills, growth rates, geographical distributions, certifications, and sources of pre-service and in-service personnel. Dave Rosage of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and a panel of MAPPS members will lead a discussion to help NASA specifically address private firms' near and long-term personnel needs to be included in NASA's Remote Sensing Professional Development Program. In addition, Dave Rosage will present perspectives on how remote sensing technologies are evolving, new NASA instruments being developed, and what future workforce skills are expected to support these new developments.

Gender and Orientations toward the Future: Links to Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greene, Barbara A.; DeBacker, Teresa K.

2004-01-01

Literature on future orientation and motivation was examined for gender differences. Research revealed gender differences from five theoretical orientations: achievement motivation, future time orientation, possible selves, expectancy-value, and social-cognitive. Some of those differences seemed best explained in terms of generational differences…

The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In a bigger framework of nexus - water, energy, food, ecosystem - CWATM will be coupled to the existing IIASA models including the Integrated Assessment Model MESSAGE and the global land and ecosystem model GLOBIOM in order to realize an improved assessments of water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus and associated feedback. Our vision for the short to medium term work is to introduce water quality (e.g., salinization in deltas and eutrophication associated with mega cities) into CWATM and to consider qualitative and quantitative measures of transboundary river and groundwater governance into an integrated modelling framework.

The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting

PubMed Central

Bennett, James E; Li, Guangquan; Foreman, Kyle; Best, Nicky; Kontis, Vasilis; Pearson, Clare; Hambly, Peter; Ezzati, Majid

2015-01-01

Summary Background To plan for pensions and health and social services, future mortality and life expectancy need to be forecast. Consistent forecasts for all subnational units within a country are very rare. Our aim was to forecast mortality and life expectancy for England and Wales' districts. Methods We developed Bayesian spatiotemporal models for forecasting of age-specific mortality and life expectancy at a local, small-area level. The models included components that accounted for mortality in relation to age, birth cohort, time, and space. We used geocoded mortality and population data between 1981 and 2012 from the Office for National Statistics together with the model with the smallest error to forecast age-specific death rates and life expectancy to 2030 for 375 of England and Wales' 376 districts. We measured model performance by withholding recent data and comparing forecasts with this withheld data. Findings Life expectancy at birth in England and Wales was 79·5 years (95% credible interval 79·5–79·6) for men and 83·3 years (83·3–83·4) for women in 2012. District life expectancies ranged between 75·2 years (74·9–75·6) and 83·4 years (82·1–84·8) for men and between 80·2 years (79·8–80·5) and 87·3 years (86·0–88·8) for women. Between 1981 and 2012, life expectancy increased by 8·2 years for men and 6·0 years for women, closing the female–male gap from 6·0 to 3·8 years. National life expectancy in 2030 is expected to reach 85·7 (84·2–87·4) years for men and 87·6 (86·7–88·9) years for women, further reducing the female advantage to 1·9 years. Life expectancy will reach or surpass 81·4 years for men and reach or surpass 84·5 years for women in every district by 2030. Longevity inequality across districts, measured as the difference between the 1st and 99th percentiles of district life expectancies, has risen since 1981, and is forecast to rise steadily to 8·3 years (6·8–9·7) for men and 8·3 years (7·1–9·4) for women by 2030. Interpretation Present forecasts underestimate the expected rise in life expectancy, especially for men, and hence the need to provide improved health and social services and pensions for elderly people in England and Wales. Health and social policies are needed to curb widening life expectancy inequalities, help deprived districts catch up in longevity gains, and avoid a so-called grand divergence in health and longevity. Funding UK Medical Research Council and Public Health England. PMID:25935825

Planetary Protection Considerations for Life Support and Habitation Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barta, Daniel J.; Hogan, John A.

2010-01-01

Life support systems for future human missions beyond low Earth orbit may include a combination of existing hardware components and advanced technologies. Discipline areas for technology development include atmosphere revitalization, water recovery, solid waste management, crew accommodations, food production, thermal systems, environmental monitoring, fire protection and radiation protection. Life support systems will be influenced by in situ resource utilization (ISRU), crew mobility and the degree of extravehicular activity. Planetary protection represents an additional set of requirements that technology developers have generally not considered. Planetary protection guidelines will affect the kind of operations, processes, and functions that can take place during future exploration missions, including venting and discharge of liquids and solids, ejection of wastes, use of ISRU, requirements for cabin atmospheric trace contaminant concentrations, cabin leakage and restrictions on what materials, organisms, and technologies that may be brought on missions. Compliance with planetary protection requirements may drive development of new capabilities or processes (e.g. in situ sterilization, waste containment, contaminant measurement) and limit or prohibit certain kinds of operations or processes (e.g. unfiltered venting). Ultimately, there will be an effect on mission costs, including the mission trade space. Planetary protection requirements need to be considered early in technology development programs. It is expected that planetary protection will have a major impact on technology selection for future missions.

An inventory of four-dimensional data sets for the earth sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Terri

1989-01-01

The wide variety of data available to the diligent researcher and the myriad paths to obtaining it are emphasized. This inventory is an attempt to make accessible much of the four-dimensional data available in the world. In this quick-look catalog are listed separate data sets (Data Sets sections), sources of data including centers and large data bases (Sources section), and some data expected to be available in the future (Future Data section). In the Data Sets section, individual data sets are arranged alphabetically by institution, with those archived in the U.S.A. listed first, followed by those found elsewhere. The Sources section includes large data bases, centers, and directories. Sources are arranged alphabetically by country. This section is followed by a Future Data section which is a collection of data sets, experiments, and other future developments of which we are cognizant. A collection of further information and order blanks provided by some of the archiving institutions are presented in the appendix.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California's rainfall.

PubMed

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D; Chiang, John C H; Zimmerman, Susan

2017-12-05

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

The consequences of tourism for sustainable water use on a tropical island: Zanzibar, Tanzania.

PubMed

Gössling, S

2001-02-01

Many developing countries in the tropics have focused on tourism to generate additional income sources and to diversity the economy. Coastlines in particular have been on the forefront of tourist infrastructure development. Here, the presence of a large number of tourists has often had negative consequences for the sustainable use of the available resources, which in turn has had an effect on the integrity of the ecosystems. In this paper, the situation is described for the use of freshwater resources on the east coast of Zanzibar, Tanzania. This region is water poor, relying on freshwater derived from seasonal rains and stored in less efficient aquifers, which consist of freshwater lenses floating on the underlying seawater. Tourism in the area has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to further increase in the future. This development is expected to put additional pressure on the freshwater resources of the east coast, which show already signs of over-use. The consequences of overexploitation can include the lowering of the groundwater table, land subsidence, deteriorating groundwater quality, and saltwater intrusion. These, in turn, determine the living conditions in coastal areas and the effects will be felt both by the local populations and the tourist industry. An investigation is made into the causes and consequences of water abstraction by the tourist industry. The results show that present levels of withdrawal are not sustainable, and parts of the local populations are already experiencing water deficits on a daily basis. In the future, if the expected increase in tourist numbers occurs, the pressure on the aquifers will correspondingly increase. The results could be that the tourism in the area becomes unsustainable, which could have an adverse effect on the national economy and also on the local population and environment. Therefore, a precautionary water-management approach is suggested.

Regional resource depletion and industry activity: The case of oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.

1986-01-01

Stable and declining oil and gas prices have changed the industry's price expectations and, along with depletion of promising exploration prospects, has resulted in reduced exploration. Even with intensive additional exploration, production in most U.S. areas is expected to decline. What does this imply for the drilling and petroleum industry suppliers in particular regions? How should planners in government and the private sector project and incorporate the consequences of these changes in their strategies? This paper answers these questions for the industry operating in the offshore Gulf of Mexico. Future oil and gas production, as well as demand for offshore drilling and production facilities, are shown to depend on the size distribution of undiscovered fields, their associated production costs, and oil and gas prices. Declining well productivity is a consequence of development of progressively smaller fields so that long-run drilling demand should not decline in proportion to the expected production decline. Calculations show a substantial payoff to the drilling industry, in terms of potential demand increases, if it can develop and implement cost reducing technologies. Implications of these results for other offshore producing areas such as the North Sea are also discussed. ?? 1986.

Usability evaluation of low-cost virtual reality hand and arm rehabilitation games.

PubMed

Seo, Na Jin; Arun Kumar, Jayashree; Hur, Pilwon; Crocher, Vincent; Motawar, Binal; Lakshminarayanan, Kishor

2016-01-01

The emergence of lower-cost motion tracking devices enables home-based virtual reality rehabilitation activities and increased accessibility to patients. Currently, little documentation on patients' expectations for virtual reality rehabilitation is available. This study surveyed 10 people with stroke for their expectations of virtual reality rehabilitation games. This study also evaluated the usability of three lower-cost virtual reality rehabilitation games using a survey and House of Quality analysis. The games (kitchen, archery, and puzzle) were developed in the laboratory to encourage coordinated finger and arm movements. Lower-cost motion tracking devices, the P5 Glove and Microsoft Kinect, were used to record the movements. People with stroke were found to desire motivating and easy-to-use games with clinical insights and encouragement from therapists. The House of Quality analysis revealed that the games should be improved by obtaining evidence for clinical effectiveness, including clinical feedback regarding improving functional abilities, adapting the games to the user's changing functional ability, and improving usability of the motion-tracking devices. This study reports the expectations of people with stroke for rehabilitation games and usability analysis that can help guide development of future games.

[Interdisciplinary longitudinal curriculum "Medical Psychology, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics." Experiences from the preclinical segment].

PubMed

Schüppel, R; Bayer, A; Hrabal, V; Hölzer, M; Allert, G; Tiedemann, G; Hochkirchen, B; Stephanos, S; Kächele, H; Zenz, H

1998-05-01

The departments of Medical Psychology, Psychosomatics and Psychotherapy developed an interdisciplinary longitudinal curriculum in order to coach medical students for the whole length of their medical education. Experiences from the first four undergraduate semesters are reported. 46 students (33 females, 13 males), mean age 22.3 +/- 2.6 years, attended 60 hours of interdisciplinary group sessions. Frequent motives to join the course were interest in psychosocial disciplines and relevant previous experience. The students expected to benefit from this project in their study, their future practice as a physician, and in their personal development. Important educational goals that could be attained were the adoption of a patient-centred view in medicine as well as strengthening of the students' critical capacities and sensitivity. The students especially appreciated the possibility of group discussions and the opportunity to participate actively in the course. Based on a critical review of the evaluation, the possibility of a transfer of our model is considered and perspectives for the future are developed.

Diabetes and technology in 2030: a utopian or dystopian future?

PubMed

Kerr, D; Axelrod, C; Hoppe, C; Klonoff, D C

2018-04-01

The ability of an individual living with diabetes to have human-to-human contact with their healthcare provider is not keeping pace with the number of people developing diabetes. From a futurist perspective, however, this dichotomy of diabetes care represents an opportunity for digital healthcare. The focus of technological innovation is unlikely to be the replacement of the multidisciplinary diabetes team but rather the provision of meaningful individual and family support between clinic visits and, on a larger scale, the facilitation of population health management for diabetes. We can also expect to see new therapies, including implantable drug delivery systems, automated closed-loop systems and miniaturized non-invasive glucose monitoring systems. New digital health technologies will create a 'digital diabetes ecosystem' to enhance rather than devolve care from humans. Concerns related to data privacy and ownership will inevitably rise, thus a future for diabetes care relying heavily on technology is not inevitably utopian. Nevertheless, revolutions in the development of novel sensors, accumulation of 'big data', and use of artificial intelligence will provide exciting opportunities for preventing, monitoring and treating diabetes in the near future. © 2018 Diabetes UK.

Ceramics engineering today and tomorrow: Impact on energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korwin, M.L.

1997-12-01

Ceramic engineering has had a profound impact on the development and use of energy. Perhaps nothing has influenced the growth of human society as much as the presence of energy technology. Today, ceramics are incorporated at all levels of the energy discipline, including dams, electric insulators, capacitors, refractories and fiberglass for home insulation. Tomorrow, leaders are going to expect new ways of harnessing, using and conserving clean and abundant energy. Superconductors and nuclear containment vessels are two developing areas of new ceramic applications. With new environmental regulations, the time of passing-on accepted methods of fabrication will come to an end.more » Ceramic engineers of the future will need to better understand the mechanisms of how materials behave. Through continuous research and joint efforts between different ceramic fields, the future of energy and power, and the technology that it will bring, looks most promising.« less

Thermal management for high power space platform systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gualdoni, R. A.

1980-01-01

With future spacecraft power requirements expected to be in the order of 100 to 250 kilowatts and orbital lifetimes in the order of five to ten years, new approaches and concepts will be required that can efficiently and cost effectively provide the required heat rejection and temperature control capabilities. A plan was established to develop the commensurate technologies necessary for the thermal management of a high power space platform representative of future requirements and to achieve technology readiness by 1987. The approach taken in developing the program was to view the thermal requirements of the spacecraft as a spacecraft system rather than each as an isolated thermal problem. The program plan proposes 45 technology tasks required to achieve technology readiness. Of this total, 24 tasks were subsequently identified as being pacing technology tasks and were recommended for initiation in FY 1980 and FY 1981.

The future of intelligent assistive technologies for cognition: devices under development to support independent living and aging-with-choice.

PubMed

Boger, Jennifer; Mihailidis, Alex

2011-01-01

A person's ability to be independent is dependent on his or her overall health, mobility, and ability to complete activities of daily living. Intelligent assistive technologies (IATs) are devices that incorporate context into their decision-making process, which enables them to provide customised and dynamic assistance in an appropriate manner. IATs have tremendous potential to support people with cognitive impairments as they can be used to support many facets of well-being; from augmenting memory and decision making tasks to providing autonomous and early detection of possible changes in health. This paper presents IATs that are currently in development in the research community to support tasks that can be impacted by compromised cognition. While they are not yet ready for the general public, these devices showcase the capabilities of technologies one can expect to see in the consumer marketplace in the near future.

A Comparative Study of the Determinants of Future Plans and Expectations of Business Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Black, Gregory S.; Schofield, April L.

2018-01-01

Current university juniors and seniors have plans and expectations for after they graduate. In an effort to better understand these plans and expectations, the authors assessed a sample of 334 university students enrolled in business classes. The study examined the impact of three categories of independent variables--family influences, demographic…

Self-Efficacy and Outcome Expectancy in Beginning Weight Training Class: Their Relations to Students' Behavioral Intention and Actual Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping; Lee, Amelia M.; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

2008-01-01

This study was an initial attempt to investigate the relationships among self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, behavioral intention, and actual behavior over time in a beginning weight training class. A total of 109 participants completed questionnaires assessing their self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, and intentions for future weight training.…

Patients’ expectations of private osteopathic care in the UK: a national survey of patients

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Patients’ expectations of osteopathic care have been little researched. The aim of this study was to quantify the most important expectations of patients in private UK osteopathic practices, and the extent to which those expectations were met or unmet. Methods The study involved development and application of a questionnaire about patients’ expectations of osteopathic care. The questionnaire drew on an extensive review of the literature and the findings of a prior qualitative study involving focus groups exploring the expectations of osteopathic patients. A questionnaire survey of osteopathic patients in the UK was then conducted. Patients were recruited from a random sample of 800 registered osteopaths in private practice across the UK. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire which asked about 51 aspects of expectation, and post it to the researchers for analysis. The main outcome measures were the patients-perceived level of expectation as assessed by the percentage of positive responses for each aspect of expectation, and unmet expectation as computed from the proportion responding that their expectation “did not happen”. Results 1649 sets of patient data were included in the analysis. Thirty five (69%) of the 51 aspects of expectation were prevalent, with listening, respect and information-giving ranking highest. Only 11 expectations were unmet, the most often unmet were to be made aware that there was a complaints procedure, to find it difficult to pay for osteopathic treatment, and perceiving a lack of communication between the osteopath and their GP. Conclusions The findings reflected the complexity of providing osteopathic care and meeting patients’ expectations. The results provided a generally positive message about private osteopathic practice. The study identified certain gaps between expectations and delivery of care, which can be used to improve the quality of care. The questionnaire is a resource for future research. PMID:23721054

CASH 2021: commercial access and space habitation.

PubMed

Aldrin, Andrew; Amara, Adam; Aris, Lodewijk; Baierl, Nida; Beatty, Patrick; Beaulieu, Catherine; Behnke, Torsten; Castegini, Roberta; Chauhan, Amitabh; Cojanis, Philip; Dayawansa, Pelawa; Diop, Marie; Eito, Kinya; Engle, Steve; Feretti, Stefano; Gassama, Hamet; Genova, Bojana; Goulding, Colin; Janjua, Jameel; Jansaeng, Thidarat; Jousset, Frederic; Kopik, Anatoly; Laurin, Catherine; Leggatt, Jason; Li, Hengnian; Mezzadri, Monica; Miura, Amane; Nolet, Simon; Ogami, Satoshi; Patry, Johanne; Patten, Laryssa; Payerne, Cyril; Peer, Guy; Prampolini, Marco; Rheaume, Caroline; Saary, Joan; Spehar, Daniela; Sufi, Atiya; Sun, Baosheng; Thompson, J Barry; Thomson, Ward; Trautner, Roland; Tursunmuratov, Murat; Venet, Vrata; Wilems, Elizabeth; Wilson, Helen; Wittwer, Karl; Wokke, Frank; Wu, Yansheng; Zhou, Shaobin; Zilioli, Ilaria

2002-01-01

Issues about commercialization of space have been a growing concern in the past decade for the space community. This paper focuses on the work from a team of 51 students attending the Summer Session Program of the International Space University in Bremen, Germany. CASH 2021 (Commercial Access and Space Habitation) documents a plan that identifies commercial opportunities for space utilization that will extend human presence in space, and will chart the way forward for the next 20 years. The group selected four commercial sectors that show the most promise for the future: tourism, entertainment, space system service, assembly and debris removal, and research and development/production. The content of this document presents the results of their research. Historical activities in each of the commercial sectors are reviewed along with the current market situation. To provide a coherent background for future commercialization possibilities a scenario has been developed. This scenario includes a postulated upon ideal future and includes social, political and economic factors that may affect the space industry over the timeline of the study. The study also presents a roadmap, within the limited optimistic scenario developed, for the successful commercialization of space leading to future human presence in space. A broad range of commercially viable opportunities, not only within the current limits of the International Space Station, but also among the many new developments that are expected by 2021 are discussed. c2002 International Astronautical Federation. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Policy making for vaccine use as a driver of vaccine innovation and development in the developed world.

PubMed

Seib, Katherine; Pollard, Andrew J; de Wals, Philippe; Andrews, Ross M; Zhou, Fangjun; Hatchett, Richard J; Pickering, Larry K; Orenstein, Walter A

2017-03-07

In the past 200years, vaccines have had unmistakable impacts on public health including declines in morbidity and mortality, most markedly in economically-developed countries. Highly engineered vaccines including vaccines for conditions other than infectious diseases are expected to dominate future vaccine development. We examine immunization vaccine policy as a driver of vaccine innovation and development. The pathways to recommendation for use of licensed vaccines in the US, UK, Canada and Australia have been similar, including: expert review of disease epidemiology, disease burden and severity; vaccine immunogenicity, efficacy and safety; programmatic feasibility; public demand; and increasingly cost-effectiveness. Other attributes particularly important in development of future vaccines are likely to include: duration of immunity for improved vaccines such as pertussis; a greater emphasis on optimizing community protection rather than direct protection only; programmatic implementation, feasibility, improvements (as in the case of development of a universal influenza vaccine); public concerns/confidence/fears related to outbreak pathogens like Ebola and Zika virus; and major societal burden for combating hard to treat diseases like HIV and antimicrobial resistant pathogens. Driving innovation and production of future vaccines faces enormous economic hurdles as available approaches, technologies and regulatory pathways become more complex. As such, cost-mitigating strategies and focused, aligned efforts (by governments, private organizations, and private-public partnerships) will likely be needed to continue to spur major advances in vaccine technologies and development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

eXascale PRogramming Environment and System Software (XPRESS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapman, Barbara; Gabriel, Edgar

Exascale systems, with a thousand times the compute capacity of today’s leading edge petascale computers, are expected to emerge during the next decade. Their software systems will need to facilitate the exploitation of exceptional amounts of concurrency in applications, and ensure that jobs continue to run despite the occurrence of system failures and other kinds of hard and soft errors. Adapting computations at runtime to cope with changes in the execution environment, as well as to improve power and performance characteristics, is likely to become the norm. As a result, considerable innovation is required to develop system support to meetmore » the needs of future computing platforms. The XPRESS project aims to develop and prototype a revolutionary software system for extreme-­scale computing for both exascale and strong­scaled problems. The XPRESS collaborative research project will advance the state-­of-­the-­art in high performance computing and enable exascale computing for current and future DOE mission-­critical applications and supporting systems. The goals of the XPRESS research project are to: A. enable exascale performance capability for DOE applications, both current and future, B. develop and deliver a practical computing system software X-­stack, OpenX, for future practical DOE exascale computing systems, and C. provide programming methods and environments for effective means of expressing application and system software for portable exascale system execution.« less

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency

PubMed Central

Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Trabucco, Antonio; Higgins, Steven I.

2016-01-01

The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using different modelling approaches to estimate future distributions. Furthermore, biogeographic variation within savannahs in plant function and structure is expected to lead to divergent responses to global change. Hence the use of a single model with a single savannah tree type will likely lead to biased projections. Here we compare and contrast projections of South American, African and Australian savannah distributions from the physiologically based Thornley transport resistance statistical distribution model (TTR-SDM)—and three versions of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) designed and parametrized separately for specific continents. We show that attempting to extrapolate any continent-specific model globally biases projections. By 2070, all DVMs generally project a decrease in the extent of savannahs at their boundary with forests, whereas the TTR-SDM projects a decrease in savannahs at their boundary with aridlands and grasslands. This difference is driven by forest and woodland expansion in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in DVMs, unaccounted for by the TTR-SDM. We suggest that the most suitable models of the savannah biome for future development are individual-based dynamic vegetation models designed for specific biogeographic regions. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502376