Faces of the Future: School Counselors as Cultural Mediators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Portman, Tarrell Awe Agahe

2009-01-01

Twenty years ago, futurists examined the changing role of the school counselor and forecasted what the 21st-century school counselor would need to know. This article forecasts the future of school counseling in the next 20 years by focusing on expected diversity of K-12 students. Speculation on student enrollment based on projected trends and…

Use Trends Indicated by Statistically Calibrated Recreational Sites in the National Forest System

Treesearch

Gary L. Tyre

1971-01-01

Trends in statistically sampled use of developed sites in the National Forest system indicate an average annual increase of 6.0 percent in the period 1966-69. The high variability of the measure precludes its use for projecting expected future use, but it can be important in gauging the credibility of annual use changes at both sampled and unsampled locations.

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Íris M.; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J.

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement. PMID:28484413

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations.

PubMed

Oliveira, Íris M; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement ( M ageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement.

Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, F.

2015-12-01

The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management in the basin. The various water users; agriculture, household, industries will be able to prepare adequately and adapt to changes when they have information of the trends of extreme events well ahead of time.

The constitutionality of mandatory seat belt use legislation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-12-01

A number of trends indicate that mandatory seat belt use legislation is to be expected within the near future. The constitutionality of such self-protective legislation has been the subject of recent speculation. Constitutional challenges may be expe...

Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

The American Dream: A Crossover of Community Imagery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Metelka, Charles J.

Even as conceptual models, distinctions between "rural" and "urban" have become blurred--by changes in transportation, telecommunications, computer technology, business expertise, formal education, health care, and citizenry expectations/knowledge. Two typologies describing future trends and incorporating changes in rural/urban…

Recent Trends in Robotics Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ejiri, Masakazu

My views on recent trends in the strategy and practice of Japan's robotics research are briefly introduced. To meet ever-increasing public expectations, robotics researchers and engineers have to be more seriously concerned about robots' intrinsic weaknesses. Examples of these are power-related and reliability issues. Resolving these issues will increase the feasibility of creating successful new industry, and the likelihood of robotics becoming a key technology for providing a safe and stress-free society in the future.

University-Private Sector Research Partnerships in the Innovation Ecosystem

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

private sector . There are several trends that PCAST considers to fall specifically within context of university- private sector research partnerships. The first is the growing imbalance between the academic research capacity and the Federal research budget. The second development is the reduction in basic research performed by the industrial sector. Private foundations are expanding their capacity to fund research, a trend expected to be important in the future. Lastly, the accelerating speed of technological development requires new methods of

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Global High-Tech Economy Futures in the Information Age.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joseph, Earl C.

It has become necessary to understand the expected trends and forces-of-change behind the global realities of technological advancement and the information age. The emergence of a new information age societal framework is rapidly altering the way in which social, business, economic, educational, and political exchanges are conducted. Motivating…

Determining Value in Higher Education: The Future of Instructional Technology in a Wal-Mart Economy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tremblay, Wilfred

1992-01-01

Discusses value and the economy and examines the changing definition of educational value regarding higher education. Trends in instructional technology resulting from changes in expected educational value are described, including resource sharing, specialization, market expansion, privatization, easier human-machine interfaces, feedback systems,…

The Future of Work: Does It Belong to Us or to the Robots?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levitan, Sar A.; Johnson, Clifford M.

1982-01-01

As the use of robots and microprocessors in industry grows, the authors see little need to worry about loss of employment through job obsolescence. Rather, they expect a trend towards higher standards of living and the emergence of new goods and services. (CT)

Green Careers and the Community College: Embrace the Possibility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diritsky, Irene L.

2014-01-01

This article identifies emerging green themes and describes the green career paths that exist for students who have completed community college level coursework. It also explores the green employment opportunities, future trends, job titles, and salary ranges expected in these positions. It questions the community college's higher education…

Future cardiovascular disease in China: Markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Coxson, Pamela; Wang, Y. Claire; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Liu, Jing; Cheng, Jun; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Shen, Yu-Ming; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2010-01-01

Background The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Methods and Results Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Conclusions Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China. PMID:20442213

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

Information technology in the future of health care.

PubMed

Hatcher, Myron; Heetebry, Irene

2004-12-01

Technology advances have changed the face of health care. This paradigm shift blurred the boundaries between public health, acute care, and prevention. Technology's role in the diagnosis, treatment assignment, follow-ups, and prevention will be reviewed and future impact projected. The understanding of shift in our expectation for each aspect of health care is critical so that levels of success are understood. Technology advances in health care delivery will be discussed. Specific applications are presented and explained and future trends discussed. Four applications are defined, and related to categories of technologies and their attributes.

Future directions in technology development - Increased use of space as a facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambrus, Judith H.; Harris, Leonard A.; Levine, Jack; Tyson, Richard W.

1988-01-01

As human activities in space continue to grow in size and scope, the role of in-space technology experiments, as a necessary tool for essential technological development, will also grow. NASA has recognized the increasing importance of such experiments, and has instituted programs to plan, organize, and coordinate future in-space technology experiment activities within the overall space community. This paper discusses the history of in-space technology experiments, and expected future trends. It also describes NASA activities in this growing area of experimentation, and provides several examples of such experiments.

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the knowledge and vision of a pool of space experts from many countries, representing the multidisciplinary and international nature of human spaceflight. A comprehensive look into the future can be achieved which surpasses our individual perceptions of future trends and which will complement existing and future space tourism market studies.

Trends in ischemic heart disease mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Hye Ah; Park, Hyesook

2012-09-01

Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

International Fertility Change: New Data and Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework

PubMed Central

Thornton, Arland; Binstock, Georgina; Yount, Kathryn M.; Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal; Ghimire, Dirgha; Xie, Yu

2012-01-01

Many scholars have offered structural and ideational explanations for the fertility changes occurring around the world. This paper focuses on the influence of developmental idealism—a schema or set of beliefs endorsing development, fertility change, and causal connections between development and fertility. Developmental idealism is argued to be an important force affecting both population policy and the fertility behavior of ordinary people. We present new survey data from ordinary people in six countries—Argentina, China, Egypt, Iran, Nepal, and the United States—about the extent to which developmental idealism is known and believed. We ask individuals if they believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development is a causal force in changing fertility levels, and that fertility declines enhance the standard of living and intergenerational relations. We also ask people about their expectations concerning future trends in fertility in their countries and whether they approve or disapprove of the trends they expect. The data show widespread linkage in the minds of ordinary people between fertility and development. Large fractions of people in these six settings believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development reduces fertility, and that fertility declines foster development. Many also expect and endorse future declines in fertility. PMID:22403035

The outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine use among pregnant and birthing women: current trends and future directions.

PubMed

Steel, Amie; Adams, Jon; Sibbritt, David; Broom, Alex

2015-06-01

Complementary and alternative medicine is used by a substantial number of pregnant women and maternity care providers are often faced with the task of ensuring women are using safe and effective treatments while respecting a woman's right to autonomous decision-making. In the era of evidence-based medicine maternity health professionals are expected to draw upon the best available evidence when making clinical decisions and providing health advice. This review will outline the current trends in research evidence associated with the outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine use amongst pregnant and birthing women as well as highlight some potential directions for future development in this important yet largely unknown topic in contemporary maternity care.

Using Functional Data Analysis Models to Estimate Future Time Trends in Age-Specific Breast Cancer Mortality for the United States and England–Wales

PubMed Central

Erbas, Bircan; Akram, Muhammed; Gertig, Dorota M; English, Dallas; Hopper, John L.; Kavanagh, Anne M; Hyndman, Rob

2010-01-01

Background Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England–Wales. Methods We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England–Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England–Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England–Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. Conclusions Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers). PMID:20139657

An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, M. A.; Adam, J. C.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Serreze, M. C.; Hinzman, L. D.; Holland, M.; Shiklomanov, A.

2007-12-01

It is expected that a warming climate will be attended by an intensification of the global hydrological cycle. While there are signs of positive trends in several hydrological quantities emerging at the global scale, the scope, character, and quantitative significance of these changes are not well established. In particular, long-term increases in river discharge across Arctic Eurasia are assumed to represent such an intensification and have received considerable attention. Yet, no change in long-term annual precipitation across the region can be related with the discharge trend. Given linkages and feedbacks between the arctic and global climate systems, a more complete understanding of observed changes across northern high latitudes is needed. We present a working definition of an accelerated or intensified hydrological cycle and a synthesis of long-term (nominally 50 years) trends in observed freshwater stocks and fluxes across the arctic land-atmosphere-ocean system. Trend and significance measures from observed data are described alongside expectations of intensification based on GCM simulations of contemporary and future climate. Our domain of interest includes the terrestrial arctic drainage (including all of Alaska and drainage to Hudson Bay), the Arctic Ocean, and the atmosphere over the land and ocean domains. For the terrestrial Arctic, time series of spatial averages which are derived from station data and atmospheric reanalysis are available. Reconstructed data sets are used for quantities such as Arctic Ocean ice and liquid freshwater transports. Study goals include a comprehensive survey of past changes in freshwater across the pan-arctic and a set of benchmarks for expected changes based on an ensemble of GCM simulations, and identification of potential mechanistic linkages which may be examined with contemporary remote sensing data sets.

SHRUB BATTLE: Understanding the Making of Landscape

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Depigny, Sylvain; Michelin, Yves

2007-01-01

Landscape changes in Europe's rural areas seem to generate a more visible impact. This trend raises new questions on rural management and brings about a conflict between farmers' land-use patterns and public expectations, which are often exclusively based on esthetics. The aim of the SHRUB BATTLE board game is to help tutors make future rural…

The Changed/Changing Educational Scene: The State of the Art.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bunke, Clinton R.; And Others

A special attempt was made to organize this document in terms of the requirements of its readership (members of the Commission on Children, White House Conference, 1980). To this end, the first section, entitled "Gaining Perspective," provides an overview of developments, expectations, issues, dynamics, culture shock, and future trends in…

A Profile of Public School Biology Teachers in the USA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindauer, Ivo E.; Queitzsch, Mary L.

1996-01-01

Uses data from the National Center for Educational Statistics' Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS) to present a profile of biology teachers. Discusses background of biology teachers, preparation in the physical and life sciences, who does the preparation, and expected future trends. Compares data with results reported for chemistry, earth science,…

Shedding Light on Students' Technology Preferences: Implications for Academic Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirriahi, Negin; Alonzo, Dennis

2015-01-01

This study built on previous research in 2010 to determine changes to students' current use of and expectations for future integration of technologies in their learning experience. The findings reveal a continued trend of conservative technology use amongst students but with a growing demand for more integration of technologies for assessment and…

On the Emergence of New Computer Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asaolu, Olumuyiwa Sunday

2006-01-01

This work presents a review of the development and application of computers. It traces the highlights of emergent computing technologies shaping our world. Recent trends in hardware and software deployment are chronicled as well as their impact on various segments of the society. The expectations for the future are also discussed along with…

Forces Influencing Rural Community Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rainey, Kenneth D.

The paper briefly focuses on two questions: Can the recent growth trend be expected to continue into the future? and What does this imply as far as public policy and programs are concerned? Statistics on growth in the seventies suggest three possibilities: a change in the functions of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas; the decline of the city…

The Athletics Department of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolverton, Brad

2007-01-01

In the hyper-competitive world of intercollegiate athletics, where programs vie to win national titles, attract talent, and build the best facilities, keeping a close eye on trends and emerging practices is a necessity. With that in mind, "The Chronicle of Higher Education" asked more than three dozen experts to describe the changes they expect to…

Birth Expectations of U.S. Women Aged 15-44.

PubMed

Daugherty, Jill; Martinez, Gladys

2016-10-01

Data from the National Survey of Family Growth •Among U.S. women aged 15-44 in 2013-2015, 50% expected to have a child in the future. •In 2013-2015, differences were seen by age in women's expectations to have a child in the future, regardless of the number of biological children they have had. •In 2013-2015, women on average expected to have 2.2 children in their lifetime. This estimate has decreased since 2002. •A smaller percentage of never married, not cohabiting women expected to have a child within 2 years from the time of interview (5%) compared with currently married (19%) and currently cohabiting (16%) women. •Eighty-two percent of women who already had two or more children did not expect to have more children in the future. Birth expectations have been shown to be related to sexual activity, contraceptive use, and fertility (1-3). While most U.S. women believe that having two children is ideal (4), this varies by sociodemographic characteristics. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), this report describes women's birth expectations, number of children expected, and when they expected their next child to be born. Data are shown by age, marital or cohabiting status, and number of children. Selected trends are also shown using NSFG data from 2002, 2006-2010, 2011-2013, and 2013-2015. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Nationwide cohort study of hip fractures: time trends in the incidence rates and projections up to 2035.

PubMed

Chen, I-J; Chiang, C-Y F; Li, Y-H; Chang, C-H; Hu, C-C; Chen, D W; Chang, Y; Yang, W-E; Shih, H-N; Ueng, S W-N; Hsieh, P-H

2015-02-01

A growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the burden of hip fractures on health care system will continue to increase. By 2035, there will be a 2.7-fold increase in the number of hip fractures in Taiwan. The study provides quantitative basis for the future distribution of medical resources. Hip fractures have long been recognized as a major public health concern. The study aimed to determine time trends in the incidence of hip fractures and to forecast the number of hip fractures expected in Taiwan up to 2035. A nationwide survey was conducted using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from 2004 to 2011. A total of 141,397 hip fractures were identified, with a mean of 17,675 fractures/year. Annual incidences of hip fractures were calculated and tested for trends. Projections of the incidence rates of hip fractures and bed days associated with hip fractures were calculated using Poisson regression on the historical incidence rates in combination with population projections from 2012 to 2035. The incidence rates of hip fracture during 2004-2011 were 317 and 211 per 100,000 person-years among women and men, respectively. Over this 8-year period, the age-standardized incidence of hip fracture decreased by 13.4% among women and 12.2% among men. Despite the decline in the age-standardized incidence, the absolute number of hip fractures increased owing to the aging population. The number of hip fractures is expected to increase from 18,338 in 2010 to 50,421 in 2035-a 2.7-fold increase. The number of bed days for 2010 and 2035 was estimated at 161,248 and 501,995, respectively, representing a 3.1-fold increase. The socioeconomic impact of hip fractures will be high in the near future. This study provides a quantitative basis for future policy decisions to serve this need.

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

PubMed Central

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis. PMID:25760037

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

PubMed

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.

International programs - A growing trend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bunner, A. N.

1990-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has collaborated successfully in space science missions with a multiplicity of partners, including the European Space Agency, Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Japan, and the Soviet Union, among others. These collaborations generally arise out of common scientific goals and in the interest of economizing to take advantage of skills and capabilities among the partners. A trend towards increased cooperation in space is expected to continue as the global scientific community works together to plan future space science missions and the missions become more sophisticated.

Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis

PubMed Central

Maniscalco, John M.; Springer, Alan M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Parker, Pamela

2015-01-01

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality. PMID:26488901

Tracking zebrafish larvae in group – Status and perspectives☆

PubMed Central

Martineau, Pierre R.; Mourrain, Philippe

2013-01-01

Video processing is increasingly becoming a standard procedure in zebrafish behavior investigations as it enables higher research throughput and new or better measures. This trend, fostered by the ever increasing performance-to-price ratio of the required recording and processing equipment, should be expected to continue in the foreseeable future, with video-processing based methods permeating more and more experiments and, as a result, expanding the very role of behavioral studies in zebrafish research. To assess whether the routine video tracking of zebrafish larvae directly in the Petri dish is a capability that can be expected in the near future, the key processing concepts are discussed and illustrated on published zebrafish studies when available or other animals when not. PMID:23707495

Foresight Infectious Diseases China Project--a novel approach to anticipating future trends in risk of infectious diseases in China: methodology and results from an initial application.

PubMed

Nicoll, A; Huang, J; Xie, Z

2009-07-09

The project devised a simple but novel methodology for identifying possible future trends in infectious diseases in animals and humans in China, of priority concern to the Chinese authorities. It used a model of disease drivers (social, economic, biological or environmental factors that affect disease outcomes, by changing the behaviour of diseases, sources or pathways) devised for the Foresight Programme in the United Kingdom. Nine families of drivers were adapted to Chinese circumstances and matrices were constructed to identify the likely relationship of single infectious diseases or families of diseases to the drivers. The likely future trends in those drivers in China were determined by interviews with 36 independent Chinese experts. These trends included not only potentially adverse animal and human movements but also opportunities for innovative surveillance methods, more use of hospitals, antimicrobials and vaccines. Some human behaviours and social trends were expected to increase the risk of infections (in particular sexually transmitted and healthcare-associated infections) while at the same time the experts thought the awareness of risk in the Chinese population would increase. The results suggested a number of areas where the Chinese authorities may experience difficulties in the future, such as rising numbers of healthcare-associated infections, zoonoses and other emerging diseases and sexually transmitted infections (including HIV). Not making firm predictions, this work identifies priority disease groups requiring surveillance and consideration of countermeasures as well as recommending strengthening basic surveillance and response mechanisms for unanticipatable zoonoses and other emerging disease threats.

Conclusion: The Era of Mass Early Career Academics and Aging Faculty--Africa's Paradox

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teferra, Damtew

2016-01-01

African higher education has witnessed phenomenal enrollment growth in the last decade--and this trend is expected to continue well into the future owing to the continent's youth bulge. In this "massifying" system, the academic profession faces a paradox: as the academic profession at the senior level is aging it is also concurrently…

An overview of computer vision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, W. B.

1982-01-01

An overview of computer vision is provided. Image understanding and scene analysis are emphasized, and pertinent aspects of pattern recognition are treated. The basic approach to computer vision systems, the techniques utilized, applications, the current existing systems and state-of-the-art issues and research requirements, who is doing it and who is funding it, and future trends and expectations are reviewed.

Projecting trends in agronomic, economic, and environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity in Canada as in many northern areas in the world. This will likely come along with changes in the environmental and economic performance of dairy farms, one of the most important agricultural sectors in Canada. The objective of this s...

Decennial trends and inequalities in healthy life expectancy: The HUNT Study, Norway.

PubMed

Storeng, Siri H; Krokstad, Steinar; Westin, Steinar; Sund, Erik R

2018-02-01

Norway is experiencing a rising life expectancy combined with an increasing dependency ratio - the ratio of those outside over those within the working force. To provide data relevant for future health policy we wanted to study trends in total and healthy life expectancy in a Norwegian population over three decades (1980s, 1990s and 2000s), both overall and across gender and educational groups. Data were obtained from the HUNT Study, and the Norwegian Educational Database. We calculated total life expectancy and used the Sullivan method to calculate healthy life expectancies based on self-rated health and self-reported longstanding limiting illness. The change in health expectancies was decomposed into mortality and disability effects. During three consecutive decades we found an increase in life expectancy for 30-year-olds (~7 years) and expected lifetime in self-rated good health (~6 years), but time without longstanding limiting illness increased less (1.5 years). Women could expect to live longer than men, but the extra life years for females were spent in poor self-rated health and with longstanding limiting illness. Differences in total life expectancy between educational groups decreased, whereas differences in expected lifetime in self-rated good health and lifetime without longstanding limiting illness increased. The increase in total life expectancy was accompanied by an increasing number of years spent in good self-rated health but more years with longstanding limiting illness. This suggests increasing health care needs for people with chronic diseases, given an increasing number of elderly. Socioeconomic health inequalities remain a challenge for increasing pensioning age.

Engineering in the 21st century. [aerospace technology prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.

1978-01-01

A description is presented of the nature of the aerospace technology system that might be expected by the 21st century from a reasonable evolution of the current resources and capabilities. An aerospace employment outlook is provided. The years 1977 and 1978 seem to be marking the beginning of a period of stability and moderate growth in the aerospace industry. Aerospace research and development employment increased to 70,000 in 1977 and is now occupying a near-constant 18% share of the total research and development work force. The changing job environment is considered along with the future of aerospace education. It is found that one trend is toward a more interdisciplinary education. Most trend setters in engineering education recognize that the really challenging engineering problems invariably require the judicious exercise of several disciplines for their solution. Some future trends in aerospace technology are discussed. By the year 2000 space technology will have achieved major advances in four areas, including management of information, transportation, space structures, and energy.

Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, S.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable in the future due to climate change coupled with rapid urbanization. Thus, protecting future groundwater resources under the impact of urbanization and climate change is necessary towards more sustainable groundwater resource development. This study is intended to shed lights on how water managers may plan for the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater quality. A new approach is presented in which the groundwater vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is employed as a constraint to urban expansion. An original form of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) and a revised LTM simulation are applied to model the urbanization. The results indicated that there would be a notable and uneven urban growth between 2010 and 2050. Future groundwater vulnerability is expected to shift significantly under future climate change scenarios. The results of the revised LTM project more urban expansion in the central regions of China, while those of the original LTM project urban expansion in throughout China, although the two projections have the same areas of expansion. The urban expansion simulated by the original LTM follows the historical trend under the drivers of socioeconomic, political and geographic factors. However, the revised LTM drives the urban expansion to the regions with relatively lower groundwater vulnerability, in contrast to the historical trend. This study demonstrates that the integration of LTM and future groundwater vulnerability in the urban planning can better protect the groundwater resource and promote more sustainable socioeconomic development. The methodology developed in this study provides water managers and city planners a useful groundwater management tool for mitigating the risks associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.

Climate variability, vulnerability, and coping mechanism in Alaknanda catchment, Central Himalaya, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Kireet; Joshi, Sneh; Joshi, Varun

2008-06-01

A study was carried out to discover trends in the rainfall and temperature pattern of the Alaknanda catchment in the Central Himalaya. Data on the annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall for the last decade, and average annual temperatures over the last few decades were analyzed. Nonparametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's method) were employed to identify trends. The Mann-Kendall test shows a decline in rainfall and rise in temperature, and these trends were found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level for both transects. Sen's method also confirms this trend. This aspect has to be considered seriously for the simple reason that if the same trend continues in the future, more chances of drought are expected. The impact of climate change has been well perceived by the people of the catchment, and a coping mechanism has been developed at the local level.

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Tilele; Madani, Kaveh

2016-11-01

Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi’s dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi’s soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi’s agriculture sector.

Informing management on the future structure of hospital care: an extrapolation of trends in demand and costs in lung diseases.

PubMed

Vogl, Matthias; Leidl, Reiner

2016-05-01

The planning of health care management benefits from understanding future trends in demand and costs. In the case of lung diseases in the national German hospital market, we therefore analyze the current structure of care, and forecast future trends in key process indicators. We use standardized, patient-level, activity-based costing from a national cost calculation data set of respiratory cases, representing 11.9-14.1 % of all cases in the major diagnostic category "respiratory system" from 2006 to 2012. To forecast hospital admissions, length of stay (LOS), and costs, the best adjusted models out of possible autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models are used. The number of cases is predicted to increase substantially, from 1.1 million in 2006 to 1.5 million in 2018 (+2.7 % each year). LOS is expected to decrease from 7.9 to 6.1 days, and overall costs to increase from 2.7 to 4.5 billion euros (+4.3 % each year). Except for lung cancer (-2.3 % each year), costs for all respiratory disease areas increase: surgical interventions +9.2 % each year, COPD +3.9 %, bronchitis and asthma +1.7 %, infections +2.0 %, respiratory failure +2.6 %, and other diagnoses +8.5 % each year. The share of costs of surgical interventions in all costs of respiratory cases increases from 17.8 % in 2006 to 30.8 % in 2018. Overall costs are expected to increase particularly because of an increasing share of expensive surgical interventions and rare diseases, and because of higher intensive care, operating room, and diagnostics and therapy costs.

Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

PubMed

Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

2017-07-26

Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities in life expectancy, reversing a previously increasing trend. Since the strategy ended, inequalities have started to increase again. The strategy may have reduced geographical health inequalities in life expectancy, and future approaches should learn from this experience. The concerns are that current policies are reversing the achievements of the strategy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Trends in NASA communication satellites.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivo, J. N.; Robbins, W. H.; Stretchberry, D. M.

1972-01-01

Discussion of the potential applications of satellite communications technology in meeting the national needs in education, health care, culture, and data transfer techniques. Experiments with the NASA ATS 1, 3 and 5 spacecraft, which are conducted in an attempt to satisfy such needs, are reviewed. The future needs are also considered, covering the requirements of multiple region coverage, communications between regions, large numbers of ground terminals, multichannel capability and high quality TV pictures. The ATS F and CTS spacecraft are expected to be available in the near future to expand experiments in this field.

Cancer incidence in English children, adolescents and young people: past trends and projections to 2030

PubMed Central

Pesola, Francesca; Ferlay, Jacques; Sasieni, Peter

2017-01-01

Background: Estimating the future incidence of cancer is important to establish sufficient service provision, however, work in this area is limited for cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults (aged 0–24). Methods: Age-period-cohort models were applied to cancer incidence rates for the period 1971–2013 in England. This allowed us to extrapolate past trends to 2030. We used the appropriate cancer classification developed for cancers in children and young adults, which are analysed as two separate groups to capture inherent differences. Results: The data set consisted of 119 485 records (55% among 15+ years group). Overall, cancer rates have increased over time and are expected to continue to rise into the future. Of particular interest is the increase in rates of germ cell tumours (in males) and carcinomas (in females) in young adults, since their rates are projected to further increase over time. Conclusions: The estimated future incidence rates provide a baseline for different cancer subtypes, which will allow policymakers to develop a contingency plan to deal with future demands. PMID:29096400

Changes in Central Asia’s Water Tower: Past, Present and Future

PubMed Central

Chen, Yaning; Li, Weihong; Deng, Haijun; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi

2016-01-01

The Tienshan Mountains, with its status as “water tower”, is the main water source and ecological barrier in Central Asia. The rapid warming affected precipitation amounts and fraction as well as the original glacier/snowmelt water processes, thereby affecting the runoff and water storage. The ratio of snowfall to precipitation (S/P) experienced a downward trend, along with a shift from snow to rain. Spatially, the snow cover area in Middle Tienshan Mountains decreased significantly, while that in West Tienshan Mountains increased slightly. Approximately 97.52% of glaciers in the Tienshan Mountains showed a retreating trend, which was especially obvious in the North and East Tienshan Mountains. River runoff responds in a complex way to changes in climate and cryosphere. It appears that catchments with a higher fraction of glacierized area showed mainly increasing runoff trends, while river basins with less or no glacierization exhibited large variations in the observed runoff changes. The total water storage in the Tienshan Mountains also experienced a significant decreasing trend in Middle and East Tienshan Mountains, but a slight decreasing trend in West Tienshan Mountains, totally at an average rate of −3.72 mm/a. In future, water storage levels are expected to show deficits for the next half-century. PMID:27762285

Usability and accessibility in consumer health informatics current trends and future challenges.

PubMed

Goldberg, Larry; Lide, Bettijoyce; Lowry, Svetlana; Massett, Holly A; O'Connell, Trisha; Preece, Jennifer; Quesenbery, Whitney; Shneiderman, Ben

2011-05-01

It is a truism that, for innovative eHealth systems to have true value and impact, they must first and foremost be usable and accessible by clinicians, consumers, and other stakeholders. In this paper, current trends and future challenges in the usability and accessibility of consumer health informatics will be described. Consumer expectations of their healthcare providers and healthcare records in this new era of consumer-directed care will be explored, and innovative visualizations, assistive technologies, and other ways that healthcare information is currently being provided and/or shared will be described. Challenges for ensuring the usability of current and future systems will also be discussed. An innovative model for conducting systematic, timely, user-centered research on consumer-facing websites at the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the ongoing efforts at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to promote health information technology (HIT) usability standards and evaluation criteria will also be presented. Copyright © 2011 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Are Global and Regional Improvements in Life Expectancy and in Child, Adult and Senior Survival Slowing?

PubMed Central

Hum, Ryan J.; Verguet, Stéphane; Cheng, Yu-Ling; McGahan, Anita M.; Jha, Prabhat

2015-01-01

Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year2; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year2; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year2. Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year2. Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health–primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest. PMID:25992949

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are small, but generally consistent with the detected trends of the 20th century. Based on the simulations, extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and more frequent in winter, while a general decrease of extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer.

Data Acquisition and Mass Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vande Vyvre, P.

2004-08-01

The experiments performed at supercolliders will constitute a new challenge in several disciplines of High Energy Physics and Information Technology. This will definitely be the case for data acquisition and mass storage. The microelectronics, communication, and computing industries are maintaining an exponential increase of the performance of their products. The market of commodity products remains the largest and the most competitive market of technology products. This constitutes a strong incentive to use these commodity products extensively as components to build the data acquisition and computing infrastructures of the future generation of experiments. The present generation of experiments in Europe and in the US already constitutes an important step in this direction. The experience acquired in the design and the construction of the present experiments has to be complemented by a large R&D effort executed with good awareness of industry developments. The future experiments will also be expected to follow major trends of our present world: deliver physics results faster and become more and more visible and accessible. The present evolution of the technologies and the burgeoning of GRID projects indicate that these trends will be made possible. This paper includes a brief overview of the technologies currently used for the different tasks of the experimental data chain: data acquisition, selection, storage, processing, and analysis. The major trends of the computing and networking technologies are then indicated with particular attention paid to their influence on the future experiments. Finally, the vision of future data acquisition and processing systems and their promise for future supercolliders is presented.

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-07-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1-2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non-self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends-much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems.

Historical trends and high-resolution future climate projections in northern Tuscany (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Oria, Marco; Ferraresi, Massimo; Tanda, Maria Giovanna

2017-12-01

This paper analyzes the historical precipitation and temperature trends and the future climate projections with reference to the northern part of Tuscany (Italy). The trends are identified and quantified at monthly and annual scale at gauging stations with data collected for long periods (60-90 years). An ensemble of 13 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), was then used to assess local scale future precipitation and temperature projections and to represent the uncertainty in the results. The historical data highlight a general decrease of the annual rainfall at a mean rate of 22 mm per decade but, in many cases, the tendencies are not statistically significant. Conversely, the annual mean temperature exhibits an upward trend, statistically significant in the majority of cases, with a warming rate of about 0.1 °C per decade. With reference to the model projections and the annual precipitation, the results are not concordant; the deviations between models in the same period are higher than the future changes at medium- (2031-2040) and long-term (2051-2060) and highlight that the model uncertainty and variability is high. According to the climate model projections, the warming of the study area is unequivocal; a mean positive increment of 0.8 °C at medium-term and 1.1 °C at long-term is expected with respect to the reference period (2003-2012) and the scenario RCP4.5; the increments grow to 0.9 °C and 1.9 °C for the RCP8.5. Finally, in order to check the observed climate change signals, the climate model projections were compared with the trends based on the historical data. A satisfactory agreement is obtained with reference to the precipitation; a systematic underestimation of the trend values with respect to the models, at medium- and long-term, is observed for the temperature data.

Mount St. Helens Future Expected Deposition Scenario (FEDS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-14

Gradation in HEC - RAS Sediment Transport Model of the Lower Cowlitz River ...Cowlitz 1-D/2-D modeling. Will also be used to test proposed measures where appropriate. Cowlitz River Toutle to Columbia 1-D HEC - RAS Aug 2004...Sep 2008 (6 years) Calibration Model Cowlitz River Toutle to Columbia 1-D HEC - RAS Oct 2007 – Sep 2035 (28 years) Forecast to predict trends in

Lumber and panel products consumption for packaging and shipping in the United States, perspective for the 1980`s

Treesearch

D. B. McKeever; H. E. Dickerhoof

Trends in demand for lumber and panel products in packaging and materials handling are examined both for the past and the future. Effects of recent technological developments and innovations such as molded particleboard pallets, medium-density fiberboard pallets, and plywood pallets, are analyzed. Increased use of pallets is seen as the main reason for the expected...

Marital age homogamy in China: A reversal of trend in the reform era?*

PubMed Central

Mu, Zheng; Xie, Yu

2014-01-01

This paper reports on a study of trends in marital age homogamy in China from 1960 to 2005 that uses data from the China 2005 1% Population Inter-census Survey. Instead of a consistent increase in age homogamy, as expected, results show an inverted U-shaped trend. One plausible explanation is that intensified economic pressure, rising consumerism, and a shrinking gender gap in education during the post-1990s reform era have acted to increase women's desire to marry men who are more economically established, and thus usually older, than less financially secure men. We argue that age hypergamy maintains status hypergamy, a deeply rooted norm for couples in China. An auxiliary analysis based on the human capital model for earnings supports this interpretation. A continued trend in age hypergamy implies a future “marriage squeeze” for men of low socioeconomic status. PMID:24468440

Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

PubMed

Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

2005-10-01

Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

Future of family support: Projected living arrangements and income sources of older people in Hong Kong up to 2030.

PubMed

Ng, Kok-Hoe

2016-06-01

The study aims to project future trends in living arrangements and access to children's cash contributions and market income sources among older people in Hong Kong. A cell-based model was constructed by combining available population projections, labour force projections, an extrapolation of the historical trend in living arrangements based on national survey datasets and a regression model on income sources. Under certain assumptions, the proportion of older people living with their children may decline from 59 to 48% during 2006-2030. Although access to market income sources may improve slightly, up to 20% of older people may have no access to either children's financial support or market income sources, and will not live with their children by 2030. Family support is expected to contract in the next two decades. Public pensions should be expanded to protect financially vulnerable older people. © 2015 AJA Inc.

An overview of recent end-to-end wireless medical video telemedicine systems using 3G.

PubMed

Panayides, A; Pattichis, M S; Pattichis, C S; Schizas, C N; Spanias, A; Kyriacou, E

2010-01-01

Advances in video compression, network technologies, and computer technologies have contributed to the rapid growth of mobile health (m-health) systems and services. Wide deployment of such systems and services is expected in the near future, and it's foreseen that they will soon be incorporated in daily clinical practice. This study focuses in describing the basic components of an end-to-end wireless medical video telemedicine system, providing a brief overview of the recent advances in the field, while it also highlights future trends in the design of telemedicine systems that are diagnostically driven.

ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN LIFE EXPECTANCIES AND PER CAPITA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AS WELL AS PHARMACEUTICAL AND NON-PHARMACEUTICAL HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURES.

PubMed

Hermanowski, Tomasz; Bystrov, Victor; Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna; Szafraniec-Buryło, Sylwia I; Rabczenko, Daniel; Kolasa, Katarzyna; Orlewska, Ewa

2015-01-01

Life expectancy is a common measure of population health. Macro-perspective based on aggregated data makes it possible to approximate the impact of different levels of pharmaceutical expenditure on general population health status and is often used in cross-country comparisons. The aim of the study was to determine whether there are long-run relations between life expectancy, total healthcare expenditures, and pharmaceutical expenditures in OECD countries. Common trends in per capita gross domestic products (GDPs) (excluding healthcare expenditures), per capita healthcare expenditures (excluding pharmaceutical expenditures), per capita pharmaceutical expenditures, and life expectancies of women and men aged 60 and 65 were analyzed across OECD countries. Short-term effect of pharmaceutical expenditure onto life expectancy was also estimated by regressing the deviations of life expectancies from their long-term trends onto the deviations of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical health expenditures, as well as GDP from their trends. The dataset was created on the basis of OECD Health Data for 34 countries and the years 1991-2010. Life expectancy variables were used as proxies for the health outcomes, whereas the pharmaceutical and healthcare expenditures represented drug and healthcare consumption, respectively. In general, both expenditures and life expectancies tended to increase in all of the analyzed countries; however, the growth rates differed across the countries. The analysis of common trends indicated the existence of common long-term trends in life expectancies and per capita GDP as well as pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical healthcare expenditures. However, there was no evidence that pharmaceutical expenditures provided additional information about the long-term trends in life expectancies beyond that contained in the GDP series. The analysis based on the deviations of variables from their long-term trends allowed concluding that pharmaceutical expenditures significantly influenced life expectancies in the short run. Non-pharmaceutical healthcare expenditures were found to be significant in one out of four models (for life expectancy of women aged 65), while GDPs were found to be insignificant in all four models. The results of the study indicate that there are common long-term trends in life expectancies and per capita GDP as well as pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical healthcare expenditures. The available data did not reveal any cause- effect relationship. Other factors, for which the systematic data were not available, may have determined the increase in life expectancy in OECD countries. Significant positive short-term relations between pharmaceutical expenditures and life expectancies in OECD countries were found. The significant short-term effect of pharmaceutical expenditures onto life expectancy means that an increase of pharmaceutical expenditures above long-term trends would lead to a temporary increase in life expectancy above its corresponding long-term trend. However, this effect would not persist as pharmaceutical expenditures and life expectancy would converge to levels determined by the long-term trends.

Secondary Education for the Future. Report of a Forum Meeting on New Trends and Processes of Secondary Education (Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, November 17-December 4, 1985).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Regional Office for Education in Asia and the Pacific.

A number of countries in Asia and the Pacific are moving from a predominantly agricultural economy to industrialization, thus creating different expectations of secondary schools. The forum described provided the opportunity to reach certain consensus on the directions of secondary education; develop alternative objectives of secondary education;…

Career Preparation and the Liberal Arts: CIC Project on the Future of Independent Higher Education. Innovations in Teaching and Learning. Research Brief 3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katz, Philip M.

2015-01-01

This brief explores a central question: How does the independent sector of higher education balance expectations for job preparation with the preparation of students for full lives as educated citizens? The debate about the role of liberal arts institutions in preparing students for careers is not new. But several trends have made the debate more…

National and Subnational Population-Based Incidence of Cancer in Thailand: Assessing Cancers with the Highest Burdens

PubMed Central

Bilheem, Surichai; Chansaard, Wasan; Khuanchana, Somsak; Leklob, Atit; Rozek, Laura S.; Siriarechakul, Surattaya; Tassanasunthornwong, Sukit

2017-01-01

In Thailand, five cancer types—breast, cervical, colorectal, liver and lung cancer—contribute to over half of the cancer burden. The magnitude of these cancers must be quantified over time to assess previous health policies and highlight future trajectories for targeted prevention efforts. We provide a comprehensive assessment of these five cancers nationally and subnationally, with trend analysis, projections, and number of cases expected for the year 2025 using cancer registry data. We found that breast (average annual percent change (AAPC): 3.1%) and colorectal cancer (female AAPC: 3.3%, male AAPC: 4.1%) are increasing while cervical cancer (AAPC: −4.4%) is decreasing nationwide. However, liver and lung cancers exhibit disproportionately higher burdens in the northeast and north regions, respectively. Lung cancer increased significantly in northeastern and southern women, despite low smoking rates. Liver cancers are expected to increase in the northern males and females. Liver cancer increased in the south, despite the absence of the liver fluke, a known factor, in this region. Our findings are presented in the context of health policy, population dynamics and serve to provide evidence for future prevention strategies. Our subnational estimates provide a basis for understanding variations in region-specific risk factor profiles that contribute to incidence trends over time. PMID:28817104

MEMS packaging: state of the art and future trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossche, Andre; Cotofana, Carmen V. B.; Mollinger, Jeff R.

1998-07-01

Now that the technology for Integrated sensor and MEMS devices has become sufficiently mature to allow mass production, it is expected that the prices of bare chips will drop dramatically. This means that the package prices will become a limiting factor in market penetration, unless low cost packaging solutions become available. This paper will discuss the developments in packaging technology. Both single-chip and multi-chip packaging solutions will be addressed. It first starts with a discussion on the different requirements that have to be met; both from a device point of view (open access paths to the environment, vacuum cavities, etc.) and from the application point of view (e.g. environmental hostility). Subsequently current technologies are judged on their applicability for MEMS and sensor packaging and a forecast is given for future trends. It is expected that the large majority of sensing devices will be applied in relative friendly environments for which plastic packages would suffice. Therefore, on the short term an important role is foreseen for recently developed plastic packaging techniques such as precision molding and precision dispensing. Just like in standard electronic packaging, complete wafer level packaging methods for sensing devices still have a long way to go before they can compete with the highly optimized and automated plastic packaging processes.

West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LY, M., Jr.

2014-12-01

It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.

Hip fracture incidence 2003-2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study.

PubMed

Concin, Hans; Brozek, Wolfgang; Benedetto, Karl-Peter; Häfele, Hartmut; Kopf, Joachim; Bärenzung, Thomas; Schnetzer, Richard; Schenk, Christian; Stimpfl, Elmar; Waheed-Hutter, Ursula; Ulmer, Hanno; Rapp, Kilian; Zwettler, Elisabeth; Nagel, Gabriele

2016-12-01

Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations. Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050. Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men. We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

PubMed

WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

2011-10-01

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901-2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century, changes in natural vegetation composition caused a decreasing trend for monoterpene emissions. Future global isoprene and monoterpene emissions depend strongly on the climate and land-use scenarios considered. Over the 21st century, global isoprene emissions are simulated to either remain stable (RCP 4.5), or decrease further (RCP 8.5), with important differences depending on the underlying land-use scenario. Future monoterpene emissions are expected to continue their present decreasing trend for all scenarios, possibly stabilizing from 2050 onwards (RCP 4.5). These results demonstrate the importance to take both natural vegetation dynamics and anthropogenic changes in land-use into account when estimating past and future BVOC emissions. They also indicate that a future global increase in BVOC emissions is improbable.

Future trends in image coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, Ali

1993-01-01

The objective of this article is to present a discussion on the future of image data compression in the next two decades. It is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of certainty the breakthroughs in theory and developments, the milestones in advancement of technology and the success of the upcoming commercial products in the market place which will be the main factors in establishing the future stage to image coding. What we propose to do, instead, is look back at the progress in image coding during the last two decades and assess the state of the art in image coding today. Then, by observing the trends in developments of theory, software, and hardware coupled with the future needs for use and dissemination of imagery data and the constraints on the bandwidth and capacity of various networks, predict the future state of image coding. What seems to be certain today is the growing need for bandwidth compression. The television is using a technology which is half a century old and is ready to be replaced by high definition television with an extremely high digital bandwidth. Smart telephones coupled with personal computers and TV monitors accommodating both printed and video data will be common in homes and businesses within the next decade. Efficient and compact digital processing modules using developing technologies will make bandwidth compressed imagery the cheap and preferred alternative in satellite and on-board applications. In view of the above needs, we expect increased activities in development of theory, software, special purpose chips and hardware for image bandwidth compression in the next two decades. The following sections summarize the future trends in these areas.

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama.

PubMed

Wang, Ruoyu; Kalin, Latif

2018-02-01

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid (TSS) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover (LULC) change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama, USA. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change (2016-2040). Three projected LULC maps (2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorous (TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease, mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Temperature of the Earth in 2020

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In spite of the confusion in the public discourse about global warming, there is no doubt that the Earth has been warming for the past century. The chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere is complex, and it is sometimes difficult to claim cause-and-effect with certainty. Nevertheless, the evidence seems clear that CO2 and non-CO2 forcings such as methane and air pollution are causally related to this warming trend. Our dependence on fossil fuels make it difficult to expect that massive reductions in CO2 will be feasible in the near-term, however. In this talk I will consider the evidence for global warming, the extent to which we can extrapolate current trends into the future if no changes in global policy are introduced, and those near-term policies that might be realistically introduced to significantly affect those trends.

A Comparison of Combustor-Noise Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hultgren, Lennart S.

2012-01-01

The present status of combustor-noise prediction in the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP)1 for current-generation (N) turbofan engines is summarized. Several semi-empirical models for turbofan combustor noise are discussed, including best methods for near-term updates to ANOPP. An alternate turbine-transmission factor2 will appear as a user selectable option in the combustor-noise module GECOR in the next release. The three-spectrum model proposed by Stone et al.3 for GE turbofan-engine combustor noise is discussed and compared with ANOPP predictions for several relevant cases. Based on the results presented herein and in their report,3 it is recommended that the application of this fully empirical combustor-noise prediction method be limited to situations involving only General-Electric turbofan engines. Long-term needs and challenges for the N+1 through N+3 time frame are discussed. Because the impact of other propulsion-noise sources continues to be reduced due to turbofan design trends, advances in noise-mitigation techniques, and expected aircraft configuration changes, the relative importance of core noise is expected to greatly increase in the future. The noise-source structure in the combustor, including the indirect one, and the effects of the propagation path through the engine and exhaust nozzle need to be better understood. In particular, the acoustic consequences of the expected trends toward smaller, highly efficient gas-generator cores and low-emission fuel-flexible combustors need to be fully investigated since future designs are quite likely to fall outside of the parameter space of existing (semi-empirical) prediction tools.

Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chapin, F. S.; Sturm, M.; Serreze, Mark C.; McFadden, J.P.; Key, J.R.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Rupp, T.S.; Lynch, A.H.; Schimel, Joshua P.; Beringer, J.; Chapman, W.L.; Epstein, H.E.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Hinzman, L.D.; Jia, G.; Ping, C.-L.; Tape, K.D.; Thompson, C.D.C.; Walker, D.A.; Welker, J.M.

2005-01-01

A major challenge in predicting Earth's future climate state is to understand feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing. Here we synthesize field data from arctic Alaska, showing that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends. Pronounced terrestrial summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free season that has increased atmospheric heating locally by about 3 watts per square meter per decade (similar in magnitude to the regional heating expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2). The continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating by two to seven times.

Emerging trends in the finance and delivery of long-term care: public and private opportunities and challenges.

PubMed

Cohen, M A

1998-02-01

A number of key trends are emerging in long-term care related to financing, new models of service delivery, and shifts in consumer expectations and preferences. Taken together, changes occurring in these areas point to a rapidly transforming long-term care landscape. Financing responsibility is shifting away from the federal government to states, individuals, and their families; providers are integrating and managing acute and long-term care services and adding new services to the continuum of care; and consumers are thinking more seriously about how to plan and pay for their future care needs, as well as how to independently navigate the long-term care system.

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

PubMed Central

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-01-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1–2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non–self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends—much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems. PMID:23842090

Impacts of Seed Dispersal on Future Vegetation Structure under Changing Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Prinn, R. G.

2011-12-01

As the impacts between land cover change, future climates and ecosystems are expected to be substantial, there are growing needs for improving the capability of simulating the global vegetation structure and landscape as realistically as possible. Current DGVMs assume ubiquitous availability of seeds and do not consider any seed dispersal mechanisms in plant migration process, which may influence the assessment of impacts to the ecosystem that rely on the vegetation structure changes (i.e., change in albedo, runoff, and terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity). This study incorporates time-varying wind-driven seed dispersal (i.e., the SEED configuration) as a dynamic constraint to the migration process of natural vegetation in the Community Land Model (CLM)-DGVM. The SEED configuration is validated using a satellite-derived tree cover dataset. Then the configuration is applied to project future vegetation structures and their implications for carbon fluxes, albedo, and hydrology under two climate mitigation scenarios (No-policy vs. 450ppm CO2 stabilization) for the 21st century. Our results show that regional changes of vegetation structure under changing climates are expected to be significant. For example, Alaska and Siberia are expected to experience substantial shifts of forestry structure, characterized by expansion of needle-leaf boreal forest and shrinkage of C3 grass Arctic. A suggested vulnerability assessment shows that vegetation structures in Alaska, Greenland, Central America, southern South America, East Africa and East Asia are susceptible to changing climates, regardless of the two climate mitigation scenarios. Regions such as Greenland, Tibet, South Asia and Northern Australia, however, may substantially alleviate their risks of rapid change in vegetation structure, given a robust greenhouse gas stabilization target. Proliferation of boreal forests in the high latitudes is expected to amplify the warming trend (i.e., a positive feedback to climate), if no mitigation policy is implemented. In contrast, under the 450ppm scenario, vegetation structure may buffer the warming trend, which is a negative feedback to climate. Moreover, runoff changes due to vegetation shifts may offset or complement runoff changes under anthropogenic climate warming.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

PubMed Central

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. PMID:29694355

Global warming not so harmful for all plants - response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change.

PubMed

Kolanowska, Marta; Kras, Marta; Lipińska, Monika; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Szlachetko, Dariusz L; Naczk, Aleksandra M

2017-10-05

Current and expected changes in global climate are major threat for biological diversity affecting individuals, communities and ecosystems. However, there is no general trend in the plants response to the climate change. The aim of present study was to evaluate impact of the future climate changes on the distribution of holomycotrophic orchid species using ecological niche modeling approach. Three different scenarios of future climate changes were tested to obtain the most comprehensive insight in the possible habitat loss of 16 holomycotrophic orchids. The extinction of Cephalanthera austiniae was predicted in all analyses. The coverage of suitable niches of Pogoniopsis schenckii will decrease to 1-30% of its current extent. The reduction of at least 50% of climatic niche of Erythrorchis cassythoides and Limodorum abortivum will be observed. In turn, the coverage of suitable niches of Hexalectris spicata, Uleiorchis ulaei and Wullschlaegelia calcarata may be even 16-74 times larger than in the present time. The conducted niche modeling and analysis of the similarity of their climatic tolerance showed instead that the future modification of the coverage of their suitable niches will not be unified and the future climate changes may be not so harmful for holomycotrophic orchids as expected.

Defusing the baby boomer time bomb: projections of after-tax income in the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Baker, D

2001-01-01

There has been a major national policy debate over the prospective tax burden facing future generations of workers as a result of the impending retirement of the baby boom generation. However, the real determinant of well-being is after-tax income, not the tax rate on before-tax income. This study constructs a series of projections of after-tax income, for workers and families at different points in the income distribution, to examine the effects of several different trends. The author first calculates the extent to which after-tax income can be expected to decline as the result of the aging of the baby boomers, then calculates the impact on after-tax income for families at different points in the income distribution of a continuation of recent trends in wage inequality. He also constructs a category of "after-tax, after-health-care spending" income, which examines the impact of the continued rapid growth in health care costs. The findings suggest that the continuation of recent trends in inequality and health care cost growth will have a much larger effect on future living standards than will the aging of the baby boomers.

The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

2017-11-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

Trends in life expectancy by education in Norway 1961-2009.

PubMed

Steingrímsdóttir, Olöf Anna; Næss, Øyvind; Moe, Joakim Oliu; Grøholt, Else-Karin; Thelle, Dag Steinar; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Bævre, Kåre

2012-03-01

Educational attainment and longevity are strongly related. Large population studies covering long periods to provide evidence of trends in educational inequalities regarding life expectancy are scarce though, especially prior to the 1980s. Our objective was to document changes in life expectancy by education in Norway in the period 1961-2009, and to determine whether the patterns differ between sexes. This is a register-based population study of all Norwegian residents over 34 years, with data from the National Central Population Registry and the National Education Database. For each calendar year during 1961-2009, death rates by 1 year age groups were calculated separately for each sex and three educational categories (primary, secondary and tertiary). Annual life tables were used to calculate life expectancy at age 35 (e ( 35 )) and survival probability for the three age-intervals 35-44, 45-64, and 65-90. All education groups increased their e ( 35 ) over time, but inequalities in e ( 35 ) between tertiary and primary educational categories widened 5.3 years for men and 3.2 years for women during the study period. The probability for women with primary education to survive to age 64 did not improve from 1961 to 2009. The gain in life expectancy lagged about 10 years in lower compared to higher education groups which might suggest that improvements in life sustaining factors reach different segments of the population at different times. The widening of the gap seems to have partly tapered off over the last two decades, and the changes in life expectancy should be followed carefully in the future to document the development.

Opportunities in solar energy research over the next decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennett, E.

1989-06-01

A sustainable energy path that relies on renewable energy sources can provide policymakers with the flexibility to cope with an uncertain national and global future. Improving market pricing signals, opening up the energy supply and energy savings business, educating society to see the true present value of future savings, and reinvigorating research and development programs will be difficult. However, those nations that accept the challenge will be rewarded with increased energy security, more stable economies, and a healthier global environment. The following report is an overview of eight trends in our society that are expected to shape the nature of architecture at the turn of the century. These trends will have pronounced effects on the use of renewable energy in our building stock. In turn, solar energy research can provide the answers to certain questions which will arise during these changes. Changes, if understood, can also serve to accelerate the inclusion of certain technologies, as in this particular case, solar energy.

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032.

PubMed

Yun, Jae-Won; Son, Mia

2016-08-01

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer's disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies.

An overview of artificial intelligence and robotics. Volume 1: Artificial intelligence. Part B: Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, W. B.

1983-01-01

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an emerging technology that has recently attracted considerable attention. Many applications are now under development. This report, Part B of a three part report on AI, presents overviews of the key application areas: Expert Systems, Computer Vision, Natural Language Processing, Speech Interfaces, and Problem Solving and Planning. The basic approaches to such systems, the state-of-the-art, existing systems and future trends and expectations are covered.

Artificial cognitive memory—changing from density driven to functionality driven

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, L. P.; Yi, K. J.; Ramanathan, K.; Zhao, R.; Ning, N.; Ding, D.; Chong, T. C.

2011-03-01

Increasing density based on bit size reduction is currently a main driving force for the development of data storage technologies. However, it is expected that all of the current available storage technologies might approach their physical limits in around 15 to 20 years due to miniaturization. To further advance the storage technologies, it is required to explore a new development trend that is different from density driven. One possible direction is to derive insights from biological counterparts. Unlike physical memories that have a single function of data storage, human memory is versatile. It contributes to functions of data storage, information processing, and most importantly, cognitive functions such as adaptation, learning, perception, knowledge generation, etc. In this paper, a brief review of current data storage technologies are presented, followed by discussions of future storage technology development trend. We expect that the driving force will evolve from density to functionality, and new memory modules associated with additional functions other than only data storage will appear. As an initial step toward building a future generation memory technology, we propose Artificial Cognitive Memory (ACM), a memory based intelligent system. We also present the characteristics of ACM, new technologies that can be used to develop ACM components such as bioinspired element cells (silicon, memristor, phase change, etc.), and possible methodologies to construct a biologically inspired hierarchical system.

Euthanasia in Belgium: trends in reported cases between 2003 and 2013.

PubMed

Dierickx, Sigrid; Deliens, Luc; Cohen, Joachim; Chambaere, Kenneth

2016-11-01

In 2002, the Belgian Act on Euthanasia came into effect, regulating the intentional ending of life by a physician at the patient's explicit request. We undertook this study to describe trends in officially reported euthanasia cases in Belgium with regard to patients' sociodemographic and clinical profiles, as well as decision-making and performance characteristics. We used the database of all euthanasia cases reported to the Federal Control and Evaluation Committee on Euthanasia in Belgium between Jan. 1, 2003, and Dec. 31, 2013 (n = 8752). The committee collected these data with a standardized registration form. We analyzed trends in patient, decision-making and performance characteristics using a χ 2 technique. We also compared and analyzed trends for cases reported in Dutch and in French. The number of reported euthanasia cases increased every year, from 235 (0.2% of all deaths) in 2003 to 1807 (1.7% of all deaths) in 2013. The rate of euthanasia increased significantly among those aged 80 years or older, those who died in a nursing home, those with a disease other than cancer and those not expected to die in the near future (p < 0.001 for all increases). Reported cases in 2013 most often concerned those with cancer (68.7%) and those under 80 years (65.0%). Palliative care teams were increasingly often consulted about euthanasia requests, beyond the legal requirements to do so (p < 0.001). Among cases reported in Dutch, the proportion in which the person was expected to die in the foreseeable future decreased from 93.9% in 2003 to 84.1% in 2013, and palliative care teams were increasingly consulted about the euthanasia request (from 34.0% in 2003 to 42.6% in 2013). These trends were not significant for cases reported in French. Since legalization of euthanasia in Belgium, the number of reported cases has increased each year. Most of those receiving euthanasia were younger than 80 years and were dying of cancer. Given the increases observed among non-terminally ill and older patients, this analysis shows the importance of detailed monitoring of developments in euthanasia practice. © 2016 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

Euthanasia in Belgium: trends in reported cases between 2003 and 2013

PubMed Central

Dierickx, Sigrid; Deliens, Luc; Cohen, Joachim; Chambaere, Kenneth

2016-01-01

Background: In 2002, the Belgian Act on Euthanasia came into effect, regulating the intentional ending of life by a physician at the patient’s explicit request. We undertook this study to describe trends in officially reported euthanasia cases in Belgium with regard to patients’ sociodemographic and clinical profiles, as well as decision-making and performance characteristics. Methods: We used the database of all euthanasia cases reported to the Federal Control and Evaluation Committee on Euthanasia in Belgium between Jan. 1, 2003, and Dec. 31, 2013 (n = 8752). The committee collected these data with a standardized registration form. We analyzed trends in patient, decision-making and performance characteristics using a χ2 technique. We also compared and analyzed trends for cases reported in Dutch and in French. Results: The number of reported euthanasia cases increased every year, from 235 (0.2% of all deaths) in 2003 to 1807 (1.7% of all deaths) in 2013. The rate of euthanasia increased significantly among those aged 80 years or older, those who died in a nursing home, those with a disease other than cancer and those not expected to die in the near future (p < 0.001 for all increases). Reported cases in 2013 most often concerned those with cancer (68.7%) and those under 80 years (65.0%). Palliative care teams were increasingly often consulted about euthanasia requests, beyond the legal requirements to do so (p < 0.001). Among cases reported in Dutch, the proportion in which the person was expected to die in the foreseeable future decreased from 93.9% in 2003 to 84.1% in 2013, and palliative care teams were increasingly consulted about the euthanasia request (from 34.0% in 2003 to 42.6% in 2013). These trends were not significant for cases reported in French. Interpretation: Since legalization of euthanasia in Belgium, the number of reported cases has increased each year. Most of those receiving euthanasia were younger than 80 years and were dying of cancer. Given the increases observed among non–terminally ill and older patients, this analysis shows the importance of detailed monitoring of developments in euthanasia practice. PMID:27620630

Trends in Education-Specific Life Expectancy, Data Quality, and Shifting Education Distributions: A Note on Recent Research.

PubMed

Hendi, Arun S

2017-06-01

Several recent articles have reported conflicting conclusions about educational differences in life expectancy, and this is partly due to the use of unreliable data subject to a numerator-denominator bias previously reported as ranging from 20 % to 40 %. This article presents estimates of life expectancy and lifespan variation by education in the United States using more reliable data from the National Health Interview Survey. Contrary to prior conclusions in the literature, I find that life expectancy increased or stagnated since 1990 among all education-race-sex groups except for non-Hispanic white women with less than a high school education; there has been a robust increase in life expectancy among white high school graduates and a smaller increase among black female high school graduates; lifespan variation did not increase appreciably among high school graduates; and lifespan variation plays a very limited role in explaining educational gradients in mortality. I also discuss the key role that educational expansion may play in driving future changes in mortality gradients. Because of shifting education distributions, within an education-specific synthetic cohort, older age groups are less negatively selected than younger age groups. We could thus expect a greater concentration of mortality at younger ages among people with a high school education or less, which would be reflected in increasing lifespan variability for this group. Future studies of educational gradients in mortality should use more reliable data and should be mindful of the effects of shifting education distributions.

Trends and Variability in Temperature Sensitivity of Lilac Flowering Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huanjiong; Dai, Junhu; Rutishauser, This; Gonsamo, Alemu; Wu, Chaoyang; Ge, Quansheng

2018-03-01

The responses of plant phenology to temperature variability have many consequences for ecological processes, agriculture, forestry, and human health. Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology could measure how and to what degree plant could phenologically track climate change. The long-term trends and spatial patterns in ST have been well studied for vegetative phenology such as leaf unfolding, but trends to be expected for reproductive phenology in the future remain unknown. Here we investigate trends and factors driving the temporal variation of ST of first bloom date (FBD). Using the long-term FBD records during 1963-2013 for common lilac (Syringa vulgaris) from 613 stations in Europe, we compared changes in ST from the beginning to the end of the study period. The Spearman partial correlations were used to assess the importance of four influencing factors. The results showed that the temporal changes in ST of FBD varied considerably among time scales. Mean ST decreased significantly by 0.92 days °C-1 from 1963-1972 to 2004-2013 (P < 0.01), but remained stable from 1963-1987 to 1989-2013. The strength of FBD and temperature relationship, the spring temperature variance, and winter chill all impact ST in an expected way at most stations. No consistent responses of ST on photoperiod were found. Our results imply that the trends and variability in ST of flowering phenology are driving by multiple factors and impacted by time scales. Continued efforts are still needed to further examine the flowering-temperature relationship for other plant species in other climates and environments using similar methods to our study.

Learning Curve for Seawater Reverse Osmosis Desalination Plants: Capital Cost Trend of the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldera, Upeksha; Breyer, Christian

2017-12-01

Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination is expected to play a pivotal role in helping to secure future global water supply. While the global reliance on SWRO plants for water security increases, there is no consensus on how the capital costs of SWRO plants will vary in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyze the past trends of the SWRO capital expenditures (capex) as the historic global cumulative online SWRO capacity increases, based on the learning curve concept. The SWRO capex learning curve is found based on 4,237 plants that came online from 1977 to 2015. A learning rate of 15% is determined, implying that the SWRO capex reduced by 15% when the cumulative capacity was doubled. Based on SWRO capacity annual growth rates of 10% and 20%, by 2030, the global average capex of SWRO plants is found to fall to 1,580 USD/(m3/d) and 1,340 USD/(m3/d), respectively. A learning curve for SWRO capital costs has not been presented previously. This research highlights the potential for decrease in SWRO capex with the increase in installation of SWRO plants and the value of the learning curve approach to estimate future SWRO capex.

Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

2009-09-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. The results of the applied statistical downscaling technique indicate that observed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in NW Spain are expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. The common tendency is that hot days increase while cold nights diminish all over the year. As expected, these tendencies change between different scenarios: they are more marked for A2 and A1B scenarios than for the for the B1 scenario. Moreover, the three models behave different under the same scenario, leaving a great uncertainty for the future. Nevertheless, we conclude that more frequent hot days, as well as an increasing probability of summertime heat waves are to be expected in the next decades. Cold days tend to diminish, decreasing the probability of wintertime cold waves and leaving a greater part of the area under study without frost days throughout the year.

A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Mukherjee, Sayanti

2017-01-01

Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months.

A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand

PubMed Central

Nateghi, Roshanak

2017-01-01

Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months. PMID:29155862

Climate driven variability and detectability of temporal trends in low flow indicators for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Julia; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun

2013-04-01

Observational data from hydrological monitoring programs plays an important role in informing decision makers of changes in key hydrological variables. To analyse how changes in climate influence stream flow, undisturbed river basins with near-natural conditions limited from human influences are needed. This study analyses low flow indicators derived from observations from the Irish Reference Network. Within the trend analysis approach the influence of individual years or sub-periods on the detected trend are analysed using sequential trend tests on all possible periods (of at least 10 years in length) by varying the start and end dates of records for various indicators. Results from this study highlight that the current standard approach using fixed periods to determine long term trends is not appropriate as statistical significance and direction of trends from short term records do not persist continuously over entire record and can be heavily influenced by extremes within the record. The importance of longer records in contextualising short term trends derived from fixed-periods influenced by natural annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal variability is highlighted. Due to the low signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio, the apparent trends derived from the low flow indicators cannot be used as confident guides to inform future water resources planning and decision making on climate change. Infact, some derived trends contradict expected climate change impacts and even small changes in study design can change the outcomes to a high degree. Therefore it is important not only to evaluate the magnitude of trends derived from monitoring data but also when a trend of a certain magnitude in a given indicator will be detectable to inform decision making or what changes might be required to detect trends for a certain significance level. In this study, the influence of observed variance in the monitoring records on the expected detection times for trends with a fixed magnitude are presented. Depending on the indicator selected, the sample variance and trend magnitude very different detection time estimates are obtained and in most cases not within the time required for anticipatory adaptation in the water resources sector. Additionally, the minimum changes in low flow indicators required to be detectable are large and changes are unlikely to be statistically detectable for many years. This means that water management and planning for anticipated future climatic changes will be required to take place without these changes being formally statistically detectable.Waiting for these trends to become formally detectable with the traditional statistical methods might not be an option for water resources management. Within the monitoring network, a considerable difference is apparent between stations in terms of detection times and changes required for detection. The existence of flow monitoring stations showing short detection times for specific indicators confirms the potential for identifying stations that may be first responders to climate induced changes. Identifying sentinel stations can increase the ability to more effectively optimise the deployment of resources for monitoring the influences of climatic change in a hydrometric reference network.

Presidential address, 1995. Surgery 2000: a look back to the future

PubMed Central

Heughan, Christopher

1996-01-01

The present demoralized state of Canadian surgery is due to a number of short-term influences. They include financial restraints, the desire of government agencies to off-load blame for unpopular decisions onto doctors and altered public expectations. The major long-term challenge will be a shortage of physicians and a severe shortage of general surgeons because of the superimposition of longer-term trends in medical demographics on short-term political reactions to a perceived oversupply of doctors. General surgeons need to identify the significant, long-term threats and challenges. If they can do this and plan their responses knowledgably, with some measure of altruism, the future in general surgery will be a bright one for present and future residents and medical students. PMID:8640616

Microporous polyethylene separators — today and tomorrow. Separator development trends for modern automotive batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böhnstedt, Werner

During the past decade, the design of modern automotive batteries has undergone a fundamental change. The introduction of microporous polyethylene pocket separators has resulted in an approximately 8% better volume utilization. Besides increasing the energy density, the polyethylene envelope has enalbed an improvement in cold-cranking performance and has raised the production efficiency. A first failure-mode analysis of pocket-separated automotive batteries in Europe with respect to leaf separation is presented. For comparable service life, a shift in failure mode has been found. Although corrosion of the positive electrode still dominates, a significant increase in positive active-material shedding is noted. This is certainly a consequence of the general trend towards lower antimony contents. Shorting through the separator is only found in cases of severe battery mistreatment. This positive, intermediary result is supplemented by an outlook on emerging development trends. Future automotive batteries will experience elevated operating temperatures, higher cycling loads, and maintenance freedom. Battery tests at temperatures up to 75 °C with various alloy combinations show that the hybrid design is best suited to meet the expected requirements. Microporous polyethylene pocket separation is not expected to be a limiting factor; the trend to lower antimony alloy content and increased cycling load will demonstrate the advantage of this separation even more clearly than in the past. Optimization of the already achieved, balanced separator characteristics profile with the reference parameters of electrical performance, water loss, durability and machinability will stimulate further development work.

Emerging trends in the outsourcing of medical and surgical care.

PubMed

Boyd, Jennifer B; McGrath, Mary H; Maa, John

2011-01-01

As total health care expenditures are expected to constitute an increasing portion of the US gross domestic product during the coming years, the US health care system is anticipating a historic spike in the need for care. Outsourcing medical and surgical care to other nations has expanded rapidly, and several ethical, legal, and financial considerations require careful evaluation. Ultimately, the balance between cost savings, quality, and patient satisfaction will be the key determinant in the future of medical outsourcing.

Application of a new hybrid model with seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) in forecasting incidence cases of HFMD in Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Yu, Lijing; Zhou, Lingling; Tan, Li; Jiang, Hongbo; Wang, Ying; Wei, Sheng; Nie, Shaofa

2014-01-01

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported for many times in Asia during the last decades. This emerging disease has drawn worldwide attention and vigilance. Nowadays, the prevention and control of HFMD has become an imperative issue in China. Early detection and response will be helpful before it happening, using modern information technology during the epidemic. In this paper, a hybrid model combining seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) is proposed to predict the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, using the retrospective observations obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2008 to November 2012. The best-fitted hybrid model was combined with seasonal ARIMA [Formula: see text] and NARNN with 15 hidden units and 5 delays. The hybrid model makes the good forecasting performance and estimates the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, which are respectively -965.03, -1879.58, 4138.26, 1858.17, 4061.86 and 6163.16 with an obviously increasing trend. The model proposed in this paper can predict the incidence trend of HFMD effectively, which could be helpful to policy makers. The usefulness of expected cases of HFMD perform not only in detecting outbreaks or providing probability statements, but also in providing decision makers with a probable trend of the variability of future observations that contains both historical and recent information.

A circumpolar monitoring framework for polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vongraven, Dag; Aars, Jon; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atkinson, Stephen N.; Belikov, Stanislav; Born, Erik W.; DeBruyn, T.D.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Durner, George M.; Gill, Michael J.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Omelak, Jack; Ovsyanikov, Nikita; Peacock, Elizabeth; Richardson, E.E.; Sahanatien, Vicki; Stirling, Ian; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) occupy remote regions that are characterized by harsh weather and limited access. Polar bear populations can only persist where temporal and spatial availability of sea ice provides adequate access to their marine mammal prey. Observed declines in sea ice availability will continue as long as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. At the same time, human intrusion and pollution levels in the Arctic are expected to increase. A circumpolar understanding of the cumulative impacts of current and future stressors is lacking, long-term trends are known from only a few subpopulations, and there is no globally coordinated effort to monitor effects of stressors. Here, we describe a framework for an integrated circumpolar monitoring plan to detect ongoing patterns, predict future trends, and identify the most vulnerable polar bear subpopulations. We recommend strategies for monitoring subpopulation abundance and trends, reproduction, survival, ecosystem change, human-caused mortality, human–bear conflict, prey availability, health, stature, distribution, behavioral change, and the effects that monitoring itself may have on polar bears. We assign monitoring intensity for each subpopulation through adaptive assessment of the quality of existing baseline data and research accessibility. A global perspective is achieved by recommending high intensity monitoring for at least one subpopulation in each of four major polar bear ecoregions. Collection of data on harvest, where it occurs, and remote sensing of habitat, should occur with the same intensity for all subpopulations. We outline how local traditional knowledge may most effectively be combined with the best scientific methods to provide comparable and complementary lines of evidence. We also outline how previously collected intensive monitoring data may be sub-sampled to guide future sampling frequencies and develop indirect estimates or indices of subpopulation status. Adoption of this framework will inform management and policy responses to changing worldwide polar bear status and trends.

Heterogeneity of exposure and attribution of mesothelioma: Trends and strategies in two American counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Case, B. W.; Abraham, J. L.

2009-02-01

As mesothelioma risk has begun to decline in the United States, two trends are gaining relative importance. "Legacy" exposures causing this disease are most important in locales having past asbestos industry, shipyards, and/or local distribution of asbestos amphibole-containing material as a result. "Future" exposures are of particular concern in relation to so-called "naturally occurring asbestos" (NOA) areas which include unequivocally asbestiform amphibole. In this paper, Jefferson Parish, Louisiana is used as an example of the first trend, and El Dorado County, California as an example of the second. Available tumor registry, epidemiology, historical and mineralogical data, and lung-retained fibre content are used as indicators of disease and exposure. Jefferson Parish, LA was chosen as the prototype of "legacy" exposures on the basis of historical evidence of asbestos plants with known mesotheliomas in the workforce, known shipyards in the same area, EPA records of distribution of crocidolite-containing scrap to and remediation of over 1400 properties, NIOSH published data on mesothelioma by county, and exposure data including lung-retained fibre analyses in victims, where available. El Dorado, CA was chosen as the prototype of NOA amphibole exposures on the basis of tumor registry data, activity-based EPA sampling data in one area, and lung-retained fibre analyses in area pets, and future risk assessment based on tremolite-specific modelling in Libby, Montana and elsewhere. As expected, the legacy exposure area was high in mesothelioma incidence and mortality. Lung-retained fibre content confirms crocidolite exposures in exposed plant-workers and those exposed to crocidolite-containing scrap, and amosite in shipyard workers. In contrast, to date, cancer registry data in the NOA-amphibole ("future") county does not show a clear increase in incidence or mortality, but grouped county data from the area show a shift in higher incidence rates to the NOA areas and away from California "legacy" (e.g., shipyard) areas from 1988-2005. EPA active sampling has confirmed excess tremolite/ actinolite fibre(s) in air, although there is debate about its nature and the appropriateness of the area sampled. Lung-retained fibre in local pets shows unequivocally elevated asbestiform tremolite/ actinolite in areas thought to be most affected, but numbers are small. Future risk is expected to rise due to a vastly increased population base coupled with exposures potentially created by related construction activities. Although legacy exposures are producing smaller numbers of cases with time, they continue to occur at high rates, and new sources of legacy exposure are being discovered in highly localized "hotspots". Differential exposure sources remain a problem in attribution, but continued remediation seems the best strategy for prevention. In the "future" risk county and surrounding areas, incidence trends are less clear, but again highly localized exposures as opposed to broad areas seem important. Activity-based air sampling; targeted soil samples, and lung-retained fibre analyses may be useful in defining areas of highest future risk and potential prevention.

Perceptual basis of evolving Western musical styles

PubMed Central

Rodriguez Zivic, Pablo H.; Shifres, Favio; Cecchi, Guillermo A.

2013-01-01

The brain processes temporal statistics to predict future events and to categorize perceptual objects. These statistics, called expectancies, are found in music perception, and they span a variety of different features and time scales. Specifically, there is evidence that music perception involves strong expectancies regarding the distribution of a melodic interval, namely, the distance between two consecutive notes within the context of another. The recent availability of a large Western music dataset, consisting of the historical record condensed as melodic interval counts, has opened new possibilities for data-driven analysis of musical perception. In this context, we present an analytical approach that, based on cognitive theories of music expectation and machine learning techniques, recovers a set of factors that accurately identifies historical trends and stylistic transitions between the Baroque, Classical, Romantic, and Post-Romantic periods. We also offer a plausible musicological and cognitive interpretation of these factors, allowing us to propose them as data-driven principles of melodic expectation. PMID:23716669

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses the direction of future missions and it's significance to the Deep Space Network. The topics include: 1) The Deep Space Network (DSN); 2) Past Missions Driving DSN Evolution; 3) The Changing Mission Paradigm; 4) Assessing Future Mission Needs; 5) Link Support Trends; 6) Downlink Rate Trends; 7) Uplink Rate Trends; 8) End-to-End Link Difficulty Trends; 9) Summary: Future Mission Trend Drivers; and 10) Conclusion: Implications for the DSN.

Risk identification and prediction of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in Kailuan Colliery Group in China: a historical cohort study.

PubMed

Shen, Fuhai; Yuan, Juxiang; Sun, Zhiqian; Hua, Zhengbing; Qin, Tianbang; Yao, Sanqiao; Fan, Xueyun; Chen, Weihong; Liu, Hongbo; Chen, Jie

2013-01-01

Prior to 1970, coal mining technology and prevention measures in China were poor. Mechanized coal mining equipment and advanced protection measures were continuously installed in the mines after 1970. All these improvements may have resulted in a change in the incidence of coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP). Therefore, it is important to identify the characteristics of CWP today and trends for the incidence of CWP in the future. A total of 17,023 coal workers from the Kailuan Colliery Group were studied. A life-table method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rate of CWP and predict the number of new CWP patients in the future. The probability of developing CWP was estimated by a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network for each coal worker without CWP. The results showed that the cumulative incidence rates of CWP for tunneling, mining, combining, and helping workers were 31.8%, 27.5%, 24.2%, and 2.6%, respectively, during the same observation period of 40 years. It was estimated that there would be 844 new CWP cases among 16,185 coal workers without CWP within their life expectancy. There would be 273.1, 273.1, 227.6, and 69.9 new CWP patients in the next <10, 10-, 20-, and 30- years respectively in the study cohort within their life expectancy. It was identified that coal workers whose risk probabilities were over 0.2 were at high risk for CWP, and whose risk probabilities were under 0.1 were at low risk. The present and future incidence trends of CWP remain high among coal workers. We suggest that coal workers at high risk of CWP undergo a physical examination for pneumoconiosis every year, and the coal workers at low risk of CWP be examined every 5 years.

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology.

PubMed

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-06-30

Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

Recent intensification of winter haze in China linked to foreign emissions and meteorology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yang; Wang, Hailong; Smith, Steven J.

Wintertime aerosol pollution in Northern China has increased over the past several decades as anthropogenic emissions in China have increased, and has increased dramatically since the beginning of the 21st century, but the causes and their quantitative contributions remain uncertain. Here we use an aerosol source tagging capability implemented in a global aerosol-climate model to assess long-term trends of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) in Northern China. Our analysis suggests that increasing PM2.5 concentrations due to local emission increases within China were obscured (~13%) by foreign emission reductions between 1980–2000. As foreign emissions stabilized during 2000-2014,more » their counteracting effect almost disappeared, uncovering China’s pollution potential from domestic emission increases. The meteorology dominated PM2.5 trend during 1990–1996 and also uncovered the pollution potential due to decadal variations in winds. The stabilized foreign emissions together with changing meteorology explain a quarter of the larger increasing trend of PM2.5 since the beginning of the 21st century. Future foreign emissions are not expected to help hiding China’s pollution, reductions in local emissions are the efficient way to improve future air quality in Northern China.« less

Recent intensification of winter haze in China linked to foreign emissions and meteorology

DOE PAGES

Yang, Yang; Wang, Hailong; Smith, Steven J.; ...

2018-02-01

Wintertime aerosol pollution in Northern China has increased over the past several decades as anthropogenic emissions in China have increased, and has increased dramatically since the beginning of the 21st century, but the causes and their quantitative contributions remain uncertain. Here we use an aerosol source tagging capability implemented in a global aerosol-climate model to assess long-term trends of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) in Northern China. Our analysis suggests that increasing PM2.5 concentrations due to local emission increases within China were obscured (~13%) by foreign emission reductions between 1980–2000. As foreign emissions stabilized during 2000-2014,more » their counteracting effect almost disappeared, uncovering China’s pollution potential from domestic emission increases. The meteorology dominated PM2.5 trend during 1990–1996 and also uncovered the pollution potential due to decadal variations in winds. The stabilized foreign emissions together with changing meteorology explain a quarter of the larger increasing trend of PM2.5 since the beginning of the 21st century. Future foreign emissions are not expected to help hiding China’s pollution, reductions in local emissions are the efficient way to improve future air quality in Northern China.« less

Associations between extreme precipitation and acute gastro-intestinal illness due to cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in an urban Canadian drinking water system (1997-2009).

PubMed

Chhetri, Bimal K; Takaro, Tim K; Balshaw, Robert; Otterstatter, Michael; Mak, Sunny; Lem, Marcus; Zubel, Marc; Lysyshyn, Mark; Clarkson, Len; Edwards, Joanne; Fleury, Manon D; Henderson, Sarah B; Galanis, Eleni

2017-10-01

Drinking water related infections are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Understanding the current links between these infections and environmental factors is vital to understand and reduce the future burden of illness. We investigated the relationship between weekly reported cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis (n = 7,422), extreme precipitation (>90th percentile), drinking water turbidity, and preceding dry periods in a drinking water system located in greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1997-2009) using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality, secular trend, and the effect of holidays on reporting. We found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis 4-6 weeks after extreme precipitation. The effect was greater following a dry period. Similarly, extreme precipitation led to significantly increased turbidity only after prolonged dry periods. Our results suggest that the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis increases with extreme precipitation, and that the effects are more pronounced after a prolonged dry period. Given that extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with climate change, it is important to further understand the risks from these events, develop planning tools, and build resilience to these future risks.

Language and hope in schizophrenia-spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Bonfils, Kelsey A; Luther, Lauren; Firmin, Ruth L; Lysaker, Paul H; Minor, Kyle S; Salyers, Michelle P

2016-11-30

Hope is integral to recovery for those with schizophrenia. Considering recent advancements in the examination of clients' lexical qualities, we were interested in how clients' words reflect hope. Using computerized lexical analysis, we examined social, emotion, and future words' relations to hope and its pathways and agency components. Forty-five clients provided detailed narratives about their life and mental illness. Transcripts were analyzed using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count program (LIWC), which assigns words to categories (e.g., "anxiety") based on a pre-existing dictionary. Correlations and linear multiple regression were used to examine relationships between lexical qualities and hope. Hope and its subcomponents had significant or trending bivariate correlations in expected directions with several emotion-related word categories (anger and sadness) but were not associated with expected categories such as social words, positive emotions, optimism, achievement, and future words. In linear multiple regressions, no LIWC variable significantly predicted hope agency, but anger words significantly predicted both total hope and hope pathways. Our findings indicate lexical analysis tools can be used to investigate recovery-oriented concepts such as hope, and results may inform clinical practice. Future research should aim to replicate our findings in larger samples. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Waldron, Hilary

2007-01-01

This article presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security-covered workers aged 60 or older. Because average relative earnings are measured at the peak of the earnings distribution (ages 45-55), it is assumed that they act as a rough proxy for socioeconomic status. The historical literature reviewed in this analysis generally indicates that mortality differentials by socioeconomic status have not been constant over time. For this study, time trends are examined by observing how mortality differentials by average relative earnings have been changing over 29 years of successive birth cohorts that encompass roughly the first third of the 20th century. Deaths for these birth cohorts are observed at ages 60-89 from 1972 through 2001, encompassing roughly the last third of the 20th century. The large size and long span of death observations allow for disaggregation by age and year-of-birth groups in the estimation of mortality differentials by socioeconomic status. This study finds a difference in both the level and the rate of change in mortality improvement over time by socioeconomic status for male Social Security-covered workers. Average relative earnings (measured as the relative average positive earnings of an individual between ages 45 and 55) are used as a proxy for adult socioeconomic status. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912-1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972-2001 at ages 60-89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security-covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half. In contrast, among male Social Security-covered workers born in 1912 who survived to age 60, those in the top half of the earnings distribution would be expected to live only 1.2 years more than those in the bottom half. The life expectancy estimates in this article represent one possible outcome under one set of assumptions. These projections should not be regarded as an accurate depiction of the future. Specifically, this study adopts a simple projection method in which differentials are assumed to follow the pattern observed over the last 30 years of the 20th century for the first 30 years of the 21st century. This assumption lacks theoretical underpinnings because the causes of the widening differentials observed over the past 30 years have not been determined. On the one hand, if the trend of widening mortality differentials by year of birth observed over the past 30 years does not continue, the projection method used in this analysis could lead to an overestimation of future differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups. On the other hand, if mortality differentials do not narrow by age as observed in the past, the projection method used could lead to an underestimation of the differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups aged 60 or older.

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer’s disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies. PMID:27478326

Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden

PubMed Central

Rolfson, Ola; W-Dahl, Annette; Garellick, Göran; Sundberg, Martin; Kärrholm, Johan; Robertsson, Otto

2015-01-01

Background and purpose The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. Patients and methods We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975–2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. Results We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 105 Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 105 Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281–374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308–441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030. Interpretation Today’s levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed. PMID:25806653

Current trends in dental implants

PubMed Central

Gaviria, Laura; Salcido, John Paul; Guda, Teja

2014-01-01

Tooth loss is very a very common problem; therefore, the use of dental implants is also a common practice. Although research on dental implant designs, materials and techniques has increased in the past few years and is expected to expand in the future, there is still a lot of work involved in the use of better biomaterials, implant design, surface modification and functionalization of surfaces to improve the long-term outcomes of the treatment. This paper provides a brief history and evolution of dental implants. It also describes the types of implants that have been developed, and the parameters that are presently used in the design of dental implants. Finally, it describes the trends that are employed to improve dental implant surfaces, and current technologies used for the analysis and design of the implants. PMID:24868501

Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

Trends in complicated newborn hospital stays & costs, 2002-2009: implications for the future.

PubMed

Trudnak Fowler, Tara; Fairbrother, Gerry; Owens, Pamela; Garro, Nicole; Pellegrini, Cynthia; Simpson, Lisa

2014-01-01

With the steady growth in Medicaid enrollment since the recent recession, concerns have been raised about care for newborns with complications. This paper uses all-payer administrative data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), to examine trends from 2002 through 2009 in complicated newborn hospital stays, and explores the relationship between expected sources of payment and reasons for hospitalizations. Trends in complicated newborn stays, expected sources of payment, costs, and length of stay were examined. A logistic regression was conducted to explore likely payer source for the most prevalent diagnoses in 2009. Complicated births and hospital discharges within 30 days of birth remained relatively constant between 2002 and 2009, but average costs per discharge increased substantially (p<.001 for trend). Most strikingly, over time, the proportion of complicated births billed to Medicaid increased, while the proportion paid by private payers decreased. Among complicated births, the most prevalent diagnoses were preterm birth/low birth weight (23%), respiratory distress (18%), and jaundice (10%). The top two diagnoses (41% of newborns) accounted for 61% of the aggregate cost. For infants with complications, those with Medicaid were more likely to be complicated due to preterm birth/low birth weight and respiratory distress, while those with private insurance were more likely to be complicated due to jaundice. State Medicaid programs are paying for an increasing proportion of births and costly complicated births. Policies to prevent common birth complications have the potential to reduce costs for public programs and improve birth outcomes.

Gender gaps in life expectancy: generalized trends and negative associations with development indices in OECD countries.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Arai, Asuna; Kanda, Koji; Lee, Romeo B; Glasser, Jay; Tamashiro, Hiko

2013-08-01

Life expectancy (LE) is a major marker of individual survival. It also serves as a guide to highlight both the progress and the gaps in total social and societal health. Comparative LE in concert with measures of gender-specific experience, indices of empowerment and societal happiness and development offer a comparative tool to examine trends and similarities of societal progress as seen through the lens of cross-national experience. To determine the gender gaps in LE (GGLE) trends, we performed a longitudinal analysis, covering a period of 49 years (1960-2008). To examine the association of GGLE with development indices, we used the 2007 GGLE data, the newest happiness data mostly drawn from 2006; the 2006 Human Development Index (HDI) data and the 2006 Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) data. It revealed that most of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries had a GGLE trend that occurred in an inverted U-curve fashion. We divided them into three subgroups based on the peak years of respective GGLE. The earlier the peak year, the happier the countries, the higher the HDI and the smaller the current GGLE are. Association analysis indicates that Happiness, HDI and GEM are all negatively associated with GGLE. This pattern suggests that GGLE undergoes three phases of growth, peak and stability and decline. Japan will soon be seeing its GGLE gradually shrinking in the foreseeable future. The continuing increases in Happiness, HDI and GEM are associated with a decrease in GGLE, which should be carefully taken into consideration.

Industry trends point toward bright future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kliewer, G.

Examination of the trends for the past 5 yr shows increasing soundness in the international petroleum industry. U.S. figures alone have a mixed complexion, with imports, exports, crude prices, and demand rising steadily. U.S. crude oil production, however, increased through 1970, but leveled off last year. Decreases occurred during 1971 in the number of rigs working, gas producers, and wildcats drilled. Trends in Free World drilling and production (outside the U.S. and Canada) have been upward and are expected to continue expanding generally through the year 2000. World petroleum demand, the key to this activity, has risen steadily, and allmore » forecasts predict increases of around 3.5% a yr for the next 15 yr. Included in this outlook is a booming natural gas use, which comes as a result of worldwide emphasis on clean-burning, nonpolluting fuels. Competition among energy sources may not materialize. Instead, a mix of all available energy sources will be needed to meet the demand. Tabular data provide complete details.« less

Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yajuan; Wang, Lei; Lei, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xidong

2015-11-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index (GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble (MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.

Trends in hormone use and ovarian cancer incidence in US white and Australian women: implications for the future.

PubMed

Webb, Penelope M; Green, Adèle C; Jordan, Susan J

2017-05-01

To compare trends in ovarian cancer incidence in the USA and Australia in relation to changes in oral contraceptive pill (OCP) and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use. US cancer incidence data (1973-2013) were accessed via SEER*Stat; Australian data (1982-2012) were accessed from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Cancer Incidence and Mortality books. Age-period-cohort models were constructed to assess trends in ovarian cancer incidence by birth cohort and year of diagnosis. Ovarian cancer rates were increasing until the cohorts born around 1918 in the USA and 1923 in Australia who were the first to use the OCP. They then declined dramatically across subsequent cohorts such that rates for the 1968 cohort were about half those of women born 45 years earlier; however, there are early suggestions that this decline may not continue in more recent cohorts. In contrast, despite the large reduction in MHT use, there was no convincing evidence that ovarian cancer incidence rates in either country were lower after 2002 than would have been expected based on the declining trend from 1985. The major driver of ovarian cancer incidence rates appears to be the OCP. This means that when those women born since the late 1960s (who have used the OCP at high rates from an early age) reach their 60s and 70s, incidence rates are likely to stop falling and may even increase with changes in the prevalence of other factors such as tubal ligation and obesity. Forward predictions based on past trends may thus underestimate future rates and numbers of women likely to be affected.

The obesity epidemic in children and adults: current evidence and research issues.

PubMed

Flegal, K M

1999-11-01

The term "epidemic" of obesity implies that obesity is a characteristic of populations, not only of individuals. The purpose of this paper is to review evidence on obesity in populations and to identify future research issues. To examine recent increases in the population prevalence of overweight or obesity, a literature search was undertaken. Trends in overweight or obesity among adults showed considerable variability internationally. Some countries, including Canada, Finland (men), New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Western Samoa showed large increases in prevalence (>5 percentage points), whereas several other countries showed smaller or no increases. Overweight is also increasing among children and adolescents, at least in some countries. It is not clear what the expected prevalence of overweight or obesity might be in the current environment, and these findings may be most usefully viewed as shifts in the distribution of a population characteristic. The reasons for these shifts are not clear. The health implications of these shifts are also not clear, in part because trends in cardiovascular risk factors do not always parallel trends in obesity. Of the classic epidemiologic triad of host, agent, and environment, the environment has often received the least attention. The economic, social, and cultural factors that influence the distribution of body mass index in a population are not well understood. Future research needs include continued monitoring of trends in obesity and in related health conditions and observational studies to examine the causes of these trends. Public health research should aim at defining realistic goals and strategies to improve health in an environment conducive to high levels of overweight and obesity.

Predictive data modeling of human type II diabetes related statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Kristina L.; Jaenisch, Holger M.; Handley, James W.; Albritton, Nathaniel G.

2009-04-01

During the course of routine Type II treatment of one of the authors, it was decided to derive predictive analytical Data Models of the daily sampled vital statistics: namely weight, blood pressure, and blood sugar, to determine if the covariance among the observed variables could yield a descriptive equation based model, or better still, a predictive analytical model that could forecast the expected future trend of the variables and possibly eliminate the number of finger stickings required to montior blood sugar levels. The personal history and analysis with resulting models are presented.

2001 contract management survey.

PubMed

2001-10-01

For the second year running, hospitals are spending more on clinical outsourcing than on business services. The Eleventh Annual Contract Services Survey shows that, in clinical areas, executives use outsourcing to acquire specialized expertise with cost savings secondary. Reducing costs and FTEs are the primary reasons for outsourcing business operations. Business service contracts are more likely to meet expectations for cost savings. Overall, satisfaction levels are up, but in some areas there's still a lot of room for improvement. This report examines current trends in outsourcing, strategies for the future, satisfaction levels, the decisionmaking process, contract features, and costs.

Political economies and environmental futures for the sharing economy.

PubMed

Frenken, Koen

2017-06-13

The sudden rise of the sharing economy has sparked an intense public debate about its definition, its effects and its future regulation. Here, I attempt to provide analytical guidance by defining the sharing economy as the practice that consumers grant each other temporary access to their under-utilized physical assets. Using this definition, the rise of the sharing economy can be understood as occurring at the intersection of three salient economic trends: peer-to-peer exchange, access over ownership and circular business models. I shortly discuss some of the environmental impacts of online sharing platforms and then articulate three possible futures of the sharing economy: a capitalist future cumulating in monopolistic super-platforms allowing for seamless services, a state-led future that shifts taxation from labour to capital and redistributes the gains of sharing from winners to losers, and a citizen-led future based on cooperatively owned platforms under democratic control. The nature and size of the social and environmental impacts are expected to differ greatly in each of the three scenarios.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Authors.

Political economies and environmental futures for the sharing economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frenken, Koen

2017-05-01

The sudden rise of the sharing economy has sparked an intense public debate about its definition, its effects and its future regulation. Here, I attempt to provide analytical guidance by defining the sharing economy as the practice that consumers grant each other temporary access to their under-utilized physical assets. Using this definition, the rise of the sharing economy can be understood as occurring at the intersection of three salient economic trends: peer-to-peer exchange, access over ownership and circular business models. I shortly discuss some of the environmental impacts of online sharing platforms and then articulate three possible futures of the sharing economy: a capitalist future cumulating in monopolistic super-platforms allowing for seamless services, a state-led future that shifts taxation from labour to capital and redistributes the gains of sharing from winners to losers, and a citizen-led future based on cooperatively owned platforms under democratic control. The nature and size of the social and environmental impacts are expected to differ greatly in each of the three scenarios. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Political economies and environmental futures for the sharing economy

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The sudden rise of the sharing economy has sparked an intense public debate about its definition, its effects and its future regulation. Here, I attempt to provide analytical guidance by defining the sharing economy as the practice that consumers grant each other temporary access to their under-utilized physical assets. Using this definition, the rise of the sharing economy can be understood as occurring at the intersection of three salient economic trends: peer-to-peer exchange, access over ownership and circular business models. I shortly discuss some of the environmental impacts of online sharing platforms and then articulate three possible futures of the sharing economy: a capitalist future cumulating in monopolistic super-platforms allowing for seamless services, a state-led future that shifts taxation from labour to capital and redistributes the gains of sharing from winners to losers, and a citizen-led future based on cooperatively owned platforms under democratic control. The nature and size of the social and environmental impacts are expected to differ greatly in each of the three scenarios. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Material demand reduction’. PMID:28461431

French Health Technology Assessment of Antineoplastic Drugs Indicated in the Treatment of Solid Tumours: Perspective for Future Trends.

PubMed

Chouaid, Christos; Borget, Isabelle; Braun, Eric; Bazil, Marie-Laure; Schaetz, Dominique; Rémuzat, Cécile; Toumi, Mondher

2016-08-01

France is one of the European countries that spend the most on oncology drugs. To keep pharmaceutical expenditure under control, Health Authorities highly scrutinize market access of costly medicines. To assess current and future trends in French health technology assessment (HTA) of antineoplastic drugs indicated in the treatment of solid tumours. A review of the SMR and ASMR drivers of the Transparency Committee (CT) opinions issued for antineoplastic drugs indicated in the treatment of solid tumours and approved between 2009 and 2014 was performed to assess current trends in French health technology assessment (HTA), complemented by an expert board consultation to capture the critical issues on the future of antineoplastic drugs HTA. Thirty-one drugs indicated for the treatment of solid tumours were identified (77 % targeted therapies). Initial CT assessments were available for 26 drugs. Four key items in the CT assessment were identified: 1) Clinical trial methodology; 2) Acceptance of progression-free survival (PFS) as a valuable endpoint; 3) Transferability of clinical trials in clinical practice; 4) Unpredictability of CT decisions. Experts raised the important development of personalised medicines in oncology and key challenges for oncology products to generate information expected from HTA perspective. The French system remains committed to its values and philosophy (access of all innovations for everybody) which are threatened by the increasing launch of innovative therapies and budget constraint. Both HTA decision framework evolution and revision of the current pricing process should be considered in France to cope with these new challenges.

Future healthy life expectancy among older adults in the US: a forecast based on cohort smoking and obesity history.

PubMed

Cao, Bochen

2016-01-01

In the past three decades, the elderly population in the United States experienced increase in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (LE(ND)), but decrease in life expectancy with disability (LE(D)). Smoking and obesity are two major risk factors that had negative impacts on these trends. While smoking prevalence continues to decline in recent decades, obesity prevalence has been growing and is currently at a high level. This study aims to forecast the healthy life expectancy for older adults aged 55 to 85 in the US from 2011 to 2040, in relation to their smoking and obesity history. First, population-level mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and individual-level disability data from the US National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to estimate the transition rates between different health states from 1982 to 2010, using a multi-state life table (MSLT) model. Second, the estimated transition rates were fitted and projected up to 2040, using a modified Lee-Carter model that incorporates cohort smoking and obesity history from NHIS. Mortality and morbidity for both sexes will continue to decline in the next decades. Relative to 2010, men are expected to have 3.2 years gain in LE(ND) and 0.8 years loss in LE(D). For women, there will be 1.8 years gain in LE(ND) and 0.8 years loss in LE(D). By 2040, men and women are expected to spend respectively 80 % and 75 % of their remaining life expectancy between 55 and 85 disability-free. Smoking and obesity have independent negative impacts on both the survival and disability of the US older population in the coming decades, and are responsible for the present and future gender disparity in mortality and morbidity. Overall, the US older population is expected to enjoy sustained health improvements and compression of disability, largely due to decline in smoking.

Changing climate in Hungary and trends in the annual number of heat stress days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solymosi, Norbert; Torma, Csaba; Kern, Anikó; Maróti-Agóts, Ákos; Barcza, Zoltán; Könyves, László; Berke, Olaf; Reiczigel, Jenő

2010-07-01

Global climate change can have serious direct effects on animal health and production through heat stress. In Hungary, the number of heat stress days per year (YNHD), i.e., days when the temperature humidity index (THI) is above a specific comfort threshold, has increased in recent years based on observed meteorological data. Between 1973 and 2008, the countrywide average increase in YNHD was 4.1% per year. Climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCM) were used to predict possible changes in YNHD for the near future (2021-2050) relative to the reference period (1961-1990). This comparison shows that, in Hungary, the 30-year mean of YNHD is expected to increase by between 1 and 27 days, depending on the RCM used. Half of the scenarios investigated in this study predicted that, in large parts of Hungary, YNHD will increase by at least 1 week. However, the increase observed in the past, and that predicted for the near future, is spatially heterogeneous, and areas that currently have large cattle populations are expected to be affected more severely than other regions.

Working Life and Retirement Expectancies at Age 50 by Social Class: Period and Cohort Trends and Projections for Finland.

PubMed

Leinonen, Taina; Martikainen, Pekka; Myrskylä, Mikko

2018-01-11

The balance between the amount of time spent in work and in retirement underlies the long-term sustainability of the social security system. We examined socioeconomic differences in how increasing longevity is distributed between labor market statuses in Finland. We used register data and the Sullivan method to analyze life expectancy at age 50 spent in different labor market statuses over the period 1989-2012 and across cohorts born in 1938-1953. We projected the future mortality and labor market participation rates of partially observed cohorts. Both working life expectancy at age 50 and the share of remaining life spent in work have increased across periods following the recession of the early 1990s, and across successive cohorts. The trends were similar across the social classes, but there were large differences in the numbers of years spent in various states: for the most recent period and the youngest cohort, we find that compared with upper non-manual employees, male and female manual workers were expected to spend 3.6-3.7 fewer years in work, 1.7-4.7 fewer years in statutory retirement, and 3.2-3.9 more years in other forms of nonemployment. Our finding that the share of remaining life at age 50 spent in work is increasing implies that pressure on the welfare system is not as severe as is commonly thought. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Emerging trends in alternative aviation fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, Cody

The days of petroleum-based aviation fuels are numbered. New regulations to be set in place in the coming years will force current fuels to be phased out in favor of cleaner fuels with less toxic emissions. The alternative fuel industry has already taken its foothold in other modes of transportation, and aviation will soon follow suit. Many companies have cropped up over the last decade, and a few have been around longer, that work hard to develop the alternative aviation fuels of the future. It is important, however, for the aviation community to know what to expect and when to expect it concerning alternative fuels. This study investigates where various companies in the alternative aviation fuel industry currently stand in their development and production processes, and how their products will affect aircraft owners and operators. By interviewing representatives from these companies and analyzing their responses to identify trends, an educated prediction can be made about where the industry is headed and when the aviation community can expect these fuel to be available. The findings of this study indicate that many companies are still in their developmental stages, with a few notable outliers, and that most of these companies expect to see production of their product by 2017. Also, the fuel manufacturers are dealing with all the legal hurdles regarding alternative fuels, so little to no effort will be required on the part of the consumer. These findings, along with their analysis, will enable the aviation community to make educated decisions concerning fuel and their aircraft, as well and do their part to help these beneficial fuels get to market.

How will the future warming climate impact the river discharge in the alpine mountain region of upper Heihe River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Yang, H.; Yang, D.; Gao, B.; Qin, Y.

2017-12-01

The Tibetan Plateau is more sensitive to the global climate change than other areas due to its special geography. Previous studies have shown that, besides the changes of temperature and precipitation, the changes in the cryosphere such as glacier and frozen ground also have important and far-reaching effects on the ecological and hydrological processes in the basin. In order to reliably predict the future runoff changing trend in the future, it's important to estimate the responses of cryosphere to the future climate change, as well as its impacts on the hydrological processes. Based on typical future climate scenarios (under emission scenario RCP4.5) from five general circulation models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM), as well as a distributed eco-hydrological model (GBEHM), this study analyzes the possible future climate change (from 2011 to 2060) and its impacts on cryospheric and hydrological processes in upper Heihe River Basin, a typical cold mountain region located in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results suggest that air temperature is expected to rise in the future by approximately 0.32 °C/10a, and precipitation is expected to rise slightly by about 3 mm/10a. Under the rising air temperature, the maximum frozen depth of seasonally frozen ground will decrease by about 4.1 cm/10a and the active layer depth of the frozen ground will increase by about 6.2 cm/10a. The runoff is expected to reduce by approximately 6 mm/10a and the evapotranspiration is expected to increase by approximately 9 mm/10a. These changes in hydrological processes are mainly caused by the air temperature rise. The impacts of air temperature change on the hydrological processes are mainly due to the changes of frozen ground. The thickening of active layer of the frozen ground increases the soil storage capacity, leading to the decrease of runoff and increase of evapotranspiration. Results show that, when the active layer depth increase by 1 cm, the runoff will decrease by about 1 2 mm and the evapotranspiration will increase by about 0.7 2 mm. Additionally, the changes from permafrost to seasonal frozen ground increase the groundwater infiltration, which also leads to the decrease of surface runoff.

Protein-protected luminescent noble metal quantum clusters: an emerging trend in atomic cluster nanoscience

PubMed Central

Xavier, Paulrajpillai Lourdu; Chaudhari, Kamalesh; Baksi, Ananya; Pradeep, Thalappil

2012-01-01

Noble metal quantum clusters (NMQCs) are the missing link between isolated noble metal atoms and nanoparticles. NMQCs are sub-nanometer core sized clusters composed of a group of atoms, most often luminescent in the visible region, and possess intriguing photo-physical and chemical properties. A trend is observed in the use of ligands, ranging from phosphines to functional proteins, for the synthesis of NMQCs in the liquid phase. In this review, we briefly overview recent advancements in the synthesis of protein protected NMQCs with special emphasis on their structural and photo-physical properties. In view of the protein protection, coupled with direct synthesis and easy functionalization, this hybrid QC-protein system is expected to have numerous optical and bioimaging applications in the future, pointers in this direction are visible in the literature. PMID:22312454

Population, mortality and place of death in Germany (1950-2050) - implications for end-of-life care in the future.

PubMed

Simon, S T; Gomes, B; Koeskeroglu, P; Higginson, I J; Bausewein, C

2012-11-01

European populations are ageing, but data on the associated end-of-life care needs are scarce. This study aimed to analyse population, mortality and place of death (PoD) trends in Germany since 1950, and to project mortality by PoD until 2050. Secondary analysis of national statistics on population, mortality and PoD by age and gender. Future numbers and proportions of deaths by PoD - hospital deaths (HDs) and non-hospital deaths (NHDs) - were based on recent trends (2005-2009). Linear models accounted for the effect of age and gender. The German population increased by 19.0% between 1950 and 2002, and has remained relatively stable ever since. However, it is expected that it will decrease (15.4%) from 2009 to 2050 (from 81.8 to 69.4 million). The annual number of deaths has shown an increasing trend, except for a decrease in 1975-2004. A 26.0% increase is expected from 2009 to 2050 (854,544 to 1,077,000 deaths). Older people (age ≥ 75 years) will account for 87.8% of all deaths in 2050 (64.4% in 2009). The proportion of HDs was stable, with an annual mean of 47.0% (range 44.9-47.8%). The models estimated that most people will continue to die outside of hospital in 2050 (48.6 or 54.1%), and absolute numbers of both HDs and NHDs will increase from 2009 to 2050 [HD: by 20.1 million (30.6%); NHD: by 35.5 million (17.0%)]. Unlike in other industrialized countries, most people in Germany die outside of hospital. The need to plan for growing end-of-life care needs and ageing is urgent in Germany but also applies to the rest of Europe. A joint European policy must inform national strategies. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Point-of-care diagnostics: market trends and growth drivers.

PubMed

Rajan, Aruna; Glorikian, Harry

2009-01-01

There is a significant demand for in vitro diagnostic (IVD) testing to move closer to the patient point-of-care diagnostics [POC]), whether in the hospital, physician's office, rapid clinic or the home, effectively cutting time to results and helping patients make better informed decisions about their health. To analyze the point-of-care market and its trends and growth drivers. In 2007, POC made up 30% of the IVD market and is expected to grow at 9% a year. Although the overall POC market is expected to grow steadily, infectious POC is now the most attractive segment. Availability of rapid random access molecular diagnostic system for critical care infectious diseases such as MRSA and sepsis in the near future is likely to be a significant driver of infectious POC post 2012. Owing to the extraordinary increase in the cost of care, healthcare delivery is moving to increasingly decentralized settings such as rapid clinics and the home, driven by point-of-care diagnostics that provide accurate and directional results. We are evolving from the analog testing world to the digital testing world, where diagnosis is exact and therapy can be administered and be predictably effective.

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

The option value of innovative treatments for non-small cell lung cancer and renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Thornton Snider, Julia; Batt, Katharine; Wu, Yanyu; Tebeka, Mahlet Gizaw; Seabury, Seth

2017-10-01

To develop a model of the option value a therapy provides by enabling patients to live to see subsequent innovations and to apply the model to the case of nivolumab in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A model of the option value of nivolumab in RCC and NSCLC was developed and estimated. Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry and published clinical trial results were used to estimate survival curves for metastatic cancer patients with RCC, squamous NSCLC, or nonsquamous NSCLC. To estimate the conventional value of nivolumab, survival with the pre-nivolumab standard of care was compared with survival with nivolumab assuming no future innovation. To estimate the option value of nivolumab, long-term survival trends in RCC and squamous and nonsquamous NSCLC were measured in SEER to forecast mortality improvements that nivolumab patients may live to see. Compared with the previous standard of care, nivolumab extended life expectancy by 6.3 months in RCC, 7.5 months in squamous NSCLC, and 4.5 months in nonsquamous NSCLC, according to conventional methods. Accounting for expected future mortality trends, nivolumab patients are likely to gain an additional 1.2 months in RCC, 0.4 months in squamous NSCLC, and 0.5 months in nonsquamous NSCLC. These option values correspond to 18%, 5%, and 10% of the conventional value of nivolumab, respectively. Option value is important when valuing therapies like nivolumab that extend life in a rapidly evolving area of care.

The present and the future of breast cancer burden in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Ezzeldin M; Zeeneldin, Ahmed A; Sadiq, Bakr Bin; Ezzat, Adnan A

2008-01-01

Despite the low cancer incidence in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the country must be ready to face the challenge of foreseeable increase in cancer burden attributed to growth and aging of population. This work was designed to study female breast cancer as a model to assess future cancer burden and the impact on healthcare resources. Cancer statistics for the KSA were compared with that for the USA. The Joinpoint regression program was used to identify changes in secular trends, while the GLOBOCAN 2002 software projected future incidence and mortality. In the KSA, the age-standardized cancer rate (ASR) is 61 per 100,000 population, while the median age at diagnosis is 54 and 49 years for men and women, respectively. Fitting the ASR for breast cancer did not show any significant trend over a 10-year calendar period (16.2-18.2 per 100,000), a pattern that was similar to that for the USA in the prescreening mammography era. Considering the growth and aging of population and using conservative estimates for the annual percent change in incidence (increase) and mortality (decrease) by 2025, incidence and mortality cases are expected to increase by about 350% and 160%, respectively. In developing countries, future cancer rates could demonstrate a considerable increase and enormous demands on healthcare resources. The present work may provide an impetus to study other prevalent cancer types particularly in developing countries.

Research and Development Trend of Shape Control for Cold Rolling Strip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong-Cheng; Liu, Hong-Min; Liu, Jun

2017-09-01

Shape is an important quality index of cold rolling strip. Up to now, many problems in the shape control domain have not been solved satisfactorily, and a review on the research progress in the shape control domain can help to seek new breakthrough directions. In the past 10 years, researches and applications of shape control models, shape control means, shape detection technology, and shape control system have achieved significant progress. In the aspect of shape control models, the researches in the past improve the accuracy, speed and robustness of the models. The intelligentization of shape control models should be strengthened in the future. In the aspect of the shape control means, the researches in the past focus on the roll optimization, mill type selection, process optimization, local strip shape control, edge drop control, and so on. In the future, more attention should be paid to the coordination control of both strip shape and other quality indexes, and the refinement of control objective should be strengthened. In the aspects of shape detection technology and shape control system, some new types of shape detection meters and shape control systems are developed and have successfully industrial applications. In the future, the standardization of shape detection technology and shape control system should be promoted to solve the problem of compatibility. In general, the four expected development trends of shape control for cold rolling strip in the future are intelligentization, coordination, refinement, and standardization. The proposed research provides new breakthrough directions for improving shape quality.

Expected changes in future agro-climatological conditions in Northeast Thailand and their differences between general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo; Goto, Shinkichi; Sawano, Shinji; Hasegawa, Toshihiro

2011-12-01

We have studied future changes in the atmospheric and hydrological environments in Northeast Thailand from the viewpoint of risk assessment of future cultural environments in crop fields. To obtain robust and reliable estimation for future climate, ten general circulation models under three warming scenarios, B1, A1B, and A2, were used in this study. The obtained change trends show that daily maximum air temperature and precipitation will increase by 2.6°C and 4.0%, respectively, whereas soil moisture will decrease by c.a. 1% point in volumetric water content at the end of this century under the A1B scenario. Seasonal contrasts in precipitation will intensify: precipitation increases in the rainy season and precipitation decreases in the dry season. Soil moisture will slightly decrease almost throughout the year. Despite a homogeneous increase in the air temperature over Northeast Thailand, a future decrease in soil water content will show a geographically inhomogeneous distribution: Soil will experience a relative larger decrease in wetness at a shallow depth on the Khorat plateau than in the surrounding mountainous area, reflecting vegetation cover and soil texture. The predicted increase in air temperature is relatively consistent between general circulation models. In contrast, relatively large intermodel differences in precipitation, especially in long-term trends, produce unwanted bias errors in the estimation of other hydrological elements, such as soil moisture and evaporation, and cause uncertainties in projection of the agro-climatological environment. Offline hydrological simulation with a wide precipitation range is one strategy to compensate for such uncertainties and to obtain reliable risk assessment of future cultural conditions in rainfed paddy fields in Northeast Thailand.

Climate change induces demographic resistance to disease in novel coral assemblages

PubMed Central

Yakob, Laith; Mumby, Peter J.

2011-01-01

Climate change is reshaping biological communities and has already generated novel ecosystems. The functioning of novel ecosystems could depart markedly from that of existing systems and therefore obscure the impacts of climate change. We illustrate this possibility for coral reefs, which are at the forefront of climatic stress. Disease has been a principal cause of reef degradation and is expected to worsen with increased future thermal stress. However, using a field-tested epizoological model, we show that high population turnover within novel ecosystems enhances coral resistance to epizootics. Thus, disease could become a less important driver of change in the future. We emphasize the need to move away from projections based on historic trends toward predictions that account for novel behavior of ecosystems under climate change. PMID:21245326

Through the eyes of children: perceptions of environmental change in tropical forests.

PubMed

Pellier, Anne-Sophie; Wells, Jessie A; Abram, Nicola K; Gaveau, David; Meijaard, Erik

2014-01-01

This study seeks to understand children's perceptions of their present and future environments in the highly biodiverse and rapidly changing landscapes of Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. We analyzed drawings by children (target age 10-15 years) from 22 villages, which show how children perceive the present conditions of forests and wildlife surrounding their villages and how they expect conditions to change over the next 15 years. Analyses of picture elements and their relationships to current landscape variables indicate that children have a sophisticated understanding of their environment and how different environmental factors interact, either positively or negatively. Children appear to have landscape-dependent environmental perceptions, showing awareness of past environmental conditions and many aspects of recent trends, and translating these into predictions for future environmental conditions. The further removed their present landscape is from the originally forested one, the more environmental change they expect in the future, particularly declines in forest cover, rivers, animal diversity and increases in temperature and natural disasters. This suggests that loss of past perceptions and associated "shifting environmental baselines" do not feature strongly among children on Borneo, at least not for the perceptions we investigated here. Our findings that children have negative expectations of their future environmental conditions have important political implications. More than other generations, children have a stake in ensuring that future environmental conditions support their long-term well-being. Understanding what drives environmental views among children, and how they consider trade-offs between economic development and social and environmental change, should inform optimal policies on land use. Our study illuminates part of the complex interplay between perceptions of land cover and land use change. Capturing the views of children through artistic expressions provides a potentially powerful tool to influence public and political opinions, as well as a valuable approach for developing localized education and nature conservation programs.

Through the Eyes of Children: Perceptions of Environmental Change in Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Pellier, Anne-Sophie; Wells, Jessie A.; Abram, Nicola K.; Gaveau, David; Meijaard, Erik

2014-01-01

This study seeks to understand children's perceptions of their present and future environments in the highly biodiverse and rapidly changing landscapes of Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. We analyzed drawings by children (target age 10–15 years) from 22 villages, which show how children perceive the present conditions of forests and wildlife surrounding their villages and how they expect conditions to change over the next 15 years. Analyses of picture elements and their relationships to current landscape variables indicate that children have a sophisticated understanding of their environment and how different environmental factors interact, either positively or negatively. Children appear to have landscape-dependent environmental perceptions, showing awareness of past environmental conditions and many aspects of recent trends, and translating these into predictions for future environmental conditions. The further removed their present landscape is from the originally forested one, the more environmental change they expect in the future, particularly declines in forest cover, rivers, animal diversity and increases in temperature and natural disasters. This suggests that loss of past perceptions and associated “shifting environmental baselines” do not feature strongly among children on Borneo, at least not for the perceptions we investigated here. Our findings that children have negative expectations of their future environmental conditions have important political implications. More than other generations, children have a stake in ensuring that future environmental conditions support their long-term well-being. Understanding what drives environmental views among children, and how they consider trade-offs between economic development and social and environmental change, should inform optimal policies on land use. Our study illuminates part of the complex interplay between perceptions of land cover and land use change. Capturing the views of children through artistic expressions provides a potentially powerful tool to influence public and political opinions, as well as a valuable approach for developing localized education and nature conservation programs. PMID:25093658

Risk Identification and Prediction of Coal Workers’ Pneumoconiosis in Kailuan Colliery Group in China: A Historical Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Shen, Fuhai; Yuan, Juxiang; Sun, Zhiqian; Hua, Zhengbing; Qin, Tianbang; Yao, Sanqiao; Fan, Xueyun; Chen, Weihong; Liu, Hongbo; Chen, Jie

2013-01-01

Background Prior to 1970, coal mining technology and prevention measures in China were poor. Mechanized coal mining equipment and advanced protection measures were continuously installed in the mines after 1970. All these improvements may have resulted in a change in the incidence of coal workers’ pneumoconiosis (CWP). Therefore, it is important to identify the characteristics of CWP today and trends for the incidence of CWP in the future. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 17,023 coal workers from the Kailuan Colliery Group were studied. A life-table method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rate of CWP and predict the number of new CWP patients in the future. The probability of developing CWP was estimated by a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network for each coal worker without CWP. The results showed that the cumulative incidence rates of CWP for tunneling, mining, combining, and helping workers were 31.8%, 27.5%, 24.2%, and 2.6%, respectively, during the same observation period of 40 years. It was estimated that there would be 844 new CWP cases among 16,185 coal workers without CWP within their life expectancy. There would be 273.1, 273.1, 227.6, and 69.9 new CWP patients in the next <10, 10-, 20-, and 30- years respectively in the study cohort within their life expectancy. It was identified that coal workers whose risk probabilities were over 0.2 were at high risk for CWP, and whose risk probabilities were under 0.1 were at low risk. Conclusion/Significance The present and future incidence trends of CWP remain high among coal workers. We suggest that coal workers at high risk of CWP undergo a physical examination for pneumoconiosis every year, and the coal workers at low risk of CWP be examined every 5 years. PMID:24376519

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology

PubMed Central

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-01-01

Background Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. Methods A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Conclusion Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence. PMID:19566928

Role of research aircraft in technology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szalai, K. J.

1984-01-01

The United States's aeronautical research program has been rich in the use of research aircraft to explore new flight regimes, develop individual aeronautical concepts, and investigate new vehicle classes and configurations. This paper reviews the NASA supercritical wing, digital fly-by-wire, HiMAT, and AD-1 oblique-wing flight research programs, and draws from these examples general conclusions regarding the role and impact of research aircraft in technology development. The impact of a flight program on spinoff technology is also addressed. The secondary, serendipitous results are often highly significant. Finally, future research aircraft programs are examined for technology trends and expected results.

Recent progress of high performance polymer OLED and OPV materials for organic printed electronics.

PubMed

Sekine, Chizu; Tsubata, Yoshiaki; Yamada, Takeshi; Kitano, Makoto; Doi, Shuji

2014-06-01

The development of organic printed electronics has been expanding to a variety of applications and is expected to bring innovations to our future life. Along with this trend, high performance organic materials with cost-efficient fabrication processes and specific features such as thin, light weight, bendable, and low power consumption are required. A variety of organic materials have been investigated in the development of this field. The basic guidelines for material design and the recent progress of polymer-based organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) and organic photovoltaic cells (OPVs) are reported.

Recent progress of high performance polymer OLED and OPV materials for organic printed electronics

PubMed Central

Sekine, Chizu; Tsubata, Yoshiaki; Yamada, Takeshi; Kitano, Makoto; Doi, Shuji

2014-01-01

The development of organic printed electronics has been expanding to a variety of applications and is expected to bring innovations to our future life. Along with this trend, high performance organic materials with cost-efficient fabrication processes and specific features such as thin, light weight, bendable, and low power consumption are required. A variety of organic materials have been investigated in the development of this field. The basic guidelines for material design and the recent progress of polymer-based organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) and organic photovoltaic cells (OPVs) are reported. PMID:27877671

The demography of aging in the industrializing portion of the Pacific rim: a case for gender justice.

PubMed

Cowart, M E; Serow, W J

1995-05-01

The authors examine the impact of probable future trends in demographic aging on women's roles in the newly industrializing countries of the Pacific Rim (in Southeastern and east Asia). They also suggest that women will in all probability be expected to cope with additional household and family responsibilities due to demographic aging at a time when they are trying to change gender status and improve gender equity, and that these growing responsibilities could severely handicap women's efforts to play a larger role in the economy and in policy making.

A 2015 Medical Informatics Perspective on Health and Clinical Management: Will Cloud and Prioritization Solutions Be the Future of Health Data Management?

PubMed

Bricon-Souf, N; Conchon, E

2015-08-13

Summarize current excellent research and trends in the field of Health and Clinical management. Synopsis of the articles selected for the IMIA Yearbook 2015 RESULTS: Three papers from international peer-reviewed journals have been selected for the Health and Clinical Management section. Telemedicine is still very active in Health and clinical management, but the new tendencies on which we focus this year were firstly the introduction of cloud for health data management, with some specific security problems, and secondly an emerging expectation of prioritization tools in health care Management.

[Modern nursing work management trends: the case of cooperative companies].

PubMed

Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Muzi, Camila Drumond; Mauro, Maria Yvone Chaves

2004-01-01

This article introduces the issue of nursing work management from a theoretical and conceptual perspective by raising some implications for the management of organizations, as well as its impact on work relationships and, consequently, on the worker's health. The main results about ways and modalities of cooperative companies bring about the consideration that proposals of positive changes in the category run contrary to progress. Indecent work conditions, poor quality assistance and low compensation make up the main negative factors in this work process. Therefore, it is urgent to resume the discussion of what one expects from nursing for the future.

Shifting responsibility to workers: the future of retirement adequacy in the United States.

PubMed

Steinberg, Allen; Lucas, Lori

2004-01-01

While many 401(k) participants at large companies can expect replacement of nearly 100% of preretirement income, not all workers participate in their 401(k) plan. Moreover, the authors show that even among participants, the extent of retirement preparedness depends on defined benefit (DB) plan coverage and retiree medical benefit generosity. Given recent trends in the elimination of DB plans and retiree medical subsidies and the voluntary nature of 401(k) participation, retirement income responsibility is increasingly shifting to workers. The authors discuss how employers might help workers meet their retirement income needs in this changing environment.

Recent progress of high performance polymer OLED and OPV materials for organic printed electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekine, Chizu; Tsubata, Yoshiaki; Yamada, Takeshi; Kitano, Makoto; Doi, Shuji

2014-06-01

The development of organic printed electronics has been expanding to a variety of applications and is expected to bring innovations to our future life. Along with this trend, high performance organic materials with cost-efficient fabrication processes and specific features such as thin, light weight, bendable, and low power consumption are required. A variety of organic materials have been investigated in the development of this field. The basic guidelines for material design and the recent progress of polymer-based organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) and organic photovoltaic cells (OPVs) are reported.

Proceedings of the Ship Control Systems Symposium (9th) Held in Bethesda, Maryland on 10-14 September 1990. Theme: Automation in Surface Ship Control Systems, Today’s Applications and Future Trends. Volume 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-14

expectations tend to follow a set pattern as he sets out an the learning curve for the aplication of distributed processor systems, 3.149 those "new" systems...do the job more efficiently. Another example is the use of aplication software to replace the perfectly adequate Wilt-in logic involved with...combat system survivability. The probability of kill, Pk, of the combat system is shown decreasing from current firepower kill levels to that of mobility

The future of 3D and video coding in mobile and the internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bivolarski, Lazar

2013-09-01

The current Internet success has already changed our social and economic world and is still continuing to revolutionize the information exchange. The exponential increase of amount and types of data that is currently exchanged on the Internet represents significant challenge for the design of future architectures and solutions. This paper reviews the current status and trends in the design of solutions and research activities in the future Internet from point of view of managing the growth of bandwidth requirements and complexity of the multimedia that is being created and shared. Outlines the challenges that are present before the video coding and approaches to the design of standardized media formats and protocols while considering the expected convergence of multimedia formats and exchange interfaces. The rapid growth of connected mobile devices adds to the current and the future challenges in combination with the expected, in near future, arrival of multitude of connected devices. The new Internet technologies connecting the Internet of Things with wireless visual sensor networks and 3D virtual worlds requires conceptually new approaches of media content handling from acquisition to presentation in the 3D Media Internet. Accounting for the entire transmission system properties and enabling adaptation in real-time to context and content throughout the media proceeding path will be paramount in enabling the new media architectures as well as the new applications and services. The common video coding formats will need to be conceptually redesigned to allow for the implementation of the necessary 3D Media Internet features.

ET nursing education in Australia.

PubMed

Thompson, J M; English, E

1996-05-01

Australia is comparable in size to the United States, but its population is far smaller, approximately 17 million. Australia is technologically advanced and has a high standard of health care, in which ET nursing has always been considered a specialist nursing role. Although Australia is historically linked with England, formation of closer ties with geographic neighbors, such as Southeast Asia, New Zealand, and the Pacific nations, is ongoing. This article describes some relevant aspects of the Australian context and considers the past, present, and expected future trends for ET nurse education in Australia, from the first program in 1971 to current World Council of Enterostomal Therapy-recognized programs teaching students from as far away as Japan, Israel, Singapore, Malaysia, New Zealand, China, Russia, and New Guinea. The content of the programs has progressively broadened in recognition of the expanded scope of practice, and this trend will undoubtedly continue. ET nursing should remain, however, a distinct nursing specialty practice in Australia.

Recent trends in the development and evaluation of assistive robotic manipulation devices.

PubMed

Allin, Sonya; Eckel, Emily; Markham, Heather; Brewer, Bambi R

2010-02-01

This review explores recent trends in the development and evaluation of assistive robotic arms, both prosthetic and externally mounted. Evaluations have been organized according to the CATOR taxonomy of assistive device outcomes, which takes into consideration device effectiveness, social significance, and impact on subjective well-being. Questions that have informed the review include: (1) Are robotic arms being comprehensively evaluated along axes of the CATOR taxonomy? (2) Are definitions of effectiveness in accordance with the priorities of users? (3) What gaps in robotic arm evaluation exist, and how might these best be addressed? (4) What further advances can be expected in the next 15 years? Results highlight the need for increased standardization of evaluation methods, increased emphasis on the social significance (i.e., social cost) of devices, and increased emphasis on device impact on quality of life. Several open areas for future research, in terms of both device evaluation and device development, are also discussed.

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

The Estimation of Future Pump Capacity for the Urban Drainage System under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Narae; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Yonsoo; Lee, Jongso; Kim, Hungsoo

2013-04-01

In the recent years, flash flood and local heavy rainfall have been frequently occurred in Korea and this may be due to the climate change. Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and IPCC AR5 reported new greenhouse gas scenario called RCPs(Representative concentration pathways) which are becoming an interesting subject in the field of water resources. These days, the urban areas in the Korean Peninsula have been suffered from the floods, almost every year, by the localized heavy rainfall and this abnormal rainfall may be due to the climate change. Also, the runoff in the urban area has increased due to the rapid urbanization and so the current design rainfall could not be proper any more for accommodating the abnormal runoff capacity. When we determine the frequency of drainage facilities, the maximum flood discharge from the recorded rainfall intensity is used as the design capacity of the facilities. However, there is a need to examine the future rainfall tendency for the re-establishment of the design criteria of the facilities under the climate change, since the recorded rainfall intensity does not reflect the trend of the abnormal rainfall which can be occurred. This study tries to analyze the variability and trend of future rainfall using RCP scenarios and estimate the future capacity at existing pumping station for the urban drainage system. The future projection periods are set to the next 90 years(2011-2100) and are divided into three cases; Target I : 2011~2040 yrs, Target II : 2041~2070 yrs, and Target III : 2071~2100 yrs. The study area is Incheon-city, Korea which has 9 pumping stations. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario which is the worst scenario of RCPs, the Target I design rainfall is increased by 20%, Target II increased by 33%, and Target III increased by 74% compared with the reference period(1970-2010). When considering the impact of climate change, 3 of 9 pumping stations are expected to have no difficulty in the future rainfall. But, the capacities of 6 pumping stations will not be sufficient for the future rainfall and runoff. Therefore, it is expected to construct more pumping stations allowable 6 times of existing pump capacity especially for Target III(2071-2100). ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research was supported by a grant 'The development of disaster risk assessment technique for flood prevention facilities considering the multi risk factors' [NEMA-NH-2010-33] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland.

PubMed

Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2014-12-01

The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability. Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (p<0.01). For men, life expectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (p<0.001). The increase for women by 1.4 years was non-significant (p=0.29). Expected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women. The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Sixteen Trends...Their Profound Impact on Our Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marx, Gary

2011-01-01

Seismic Shifts. Future Forces. Call them whatever you'd like. The Sixteen Trends revealed in this benchmark book will have a profound impact on our future. Noted futurist, educator, communicator, executive and leadership counsel, author, and international speaker Gary Marx makes the case for those trends and speculates on their implications for…

Nitrogen Dioxide long term trends at mid and high latitudes by means of ground based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bortoli, D.; Petritoli, A.; Giovanelli, G.; Kostadinov, I.; Ravegnani, F.

2003-04-01

The interactions between mid- and high latitudes atmospheric changes are going to be one of the main issue for the future of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry research. A more detailed study of the ozone trends as well as a wider comprehension of the interactions with lower and higher latitudes are maybe the main arguments to which scientist should address their works in order to build-up a more detailed picture of what scenarios we have to face in the near future. GASCODs type spectrometers (Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences) are installed at the "Ottavio Vittori" research station (44.11N, 10.42E, 2165 m asl) since June 1993, at the Italian Antarctic Station (74.69S, 164.12E) since December 1995 and at the STIL-BAS station (42.42N, 25.63E) since 1999. The instruments measure zenith scattered solar radiation between 407 and 464 nm. Nitrogen dioxide total column is retrieved with DOAS methodology. The seasonal trend of NO2 vc values is reported and it shows the expected behaviour: maximum values during the summer period while the minimum occur in the winter season in both the hemispheres. A typical behaviour of the AMPM ratio at high latitudes is highlight. A Fourier analysis is proposed as a tool to investigate the long-term components of nitrogen dioxide stratospheric amount. Results are presented and the NO2 trend is evidenced and commented. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The author Daniele Bortoli was financially supported by the Subprograma Ciência e Tecnologia do 3° Quadro Comunitário de Apoio. The National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA) and the Quantification and Interpretation of Long-Term UV-Vis Observations of the Stratosphere (QUILT) project supported this research.

Comparison of methods for non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis: Case study using annual maximum daily precipitation in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Po-Chun; Wang, Yuan-Heng; You, Gene Jiing-Yun; Wei, Chih-Chiang

2017-02-01

Future climatic conditions likely will not satisfy stationarity assumption. To address this concern, this study applied three methods to analyze non-stationarity in hydrologic conditions. Based on the principle of identifying distribution and trends (IDT) with time-varying moments, we employed the parametric weighted least squares (WLS) estimation in conjunction with the non-parametric discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Our aim was to evaluate the applicability of non-parameter approaches, compared with traditional parameter-based methods. In contrast to most previous studies, which analyzed the non-stationarity of first moments, we incorporated second-moment analysis. Through the estimation of long-term risk, we were able to examine the behavior of return periods under two different definitions: the reciprocal of the exceedance probability of occurrence and the expected recurrence time. The proposed framework represents an improvement over stationary frequency analysis for the design of hydraulic systems. A case study was performed using precipitation data from major climate stations in Taiwan to evaluate the non-stationarity of annual maximum daily precipitation. The results demonstrate the applicability of these three methods in the identification of non-stationarity. For most cases, no significant differences were observed with regard to the trends identified using WLS, DWT, and EEMD. According to the results, a linear model should be able to capture time-variance in either the first or second moment while parabolic trends should be used with caution due to their characteristic rapid increases. It is also observed that local variations in precipitation tend to be overemphasized by DWT and EEMD. The two definitions provided for the concept of return period allows for ambiguous interpretation. With the consideration of non-stationarity, the return period is relatively small under the definition of expected recurrence time comparing to the estimation using the reciprocal of the exceedance probability of occurrence. However, the calculation of expected recurrence time is based on the assumption of perfect knowledge of long-term risk, which involves high uncertainty. When the risk is decreasing with time, the expected recurrence time will lead to the divergence of return period and make this definition inapplicable for engineering purposes.

Obesity and severe obesity forecasts through 2030.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Khavjou, Olga A; Thompson, Hope; Trogdon, Justin G; Pan, Liping; Sherry, Bettylou; Dietz, William

2012-06-01

Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off. This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts. The study was conducted in 2009-2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥ 18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence. Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion. The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aquaculture: global status and trends

PubMed Central

Bostock, John; McAndrew, Brendan; Richards, Randolph; Jauncey, Kim; Telfer, Trevor; Lorenzen, Kai; Little, David; Ross, Lindsay; Handisyde, Neil; Gatward, Iain; Corner, Richard

2010-01-01

Aquaculture contributed 43 per cent of aquatic animal food for human consumption in 2007 (e.g. fish, crustaceans and molluscs, but excluding mammals, reptiles and aquatic plants) and is expected to grow further to meet the future demand. It is very diverse and, contrary to many perceptions, dominated by shellfish and herbivorous and omnivorous pond fish either entirely or partly utilizing natural productivity. The rapid growth in the production of carnivorous species such as salmon, shrimp and catfish has been driven by globalizing trade and favourable economics of larger scale intensive farming. Most aquaculture systems rely on low/uncosted environmental goods and services, so a critical issue for the future is whether these are brought into company accounts and the consequent effects this would have on production economics. Failing that, increased competition for natural resources will force governments to allocate strategically or leave the market to determine their use depending on activities that can extract the highest value. Further uncertainties include the impact of climate change, future fisheries supplies (for competition and feed supply), practical limits in terms of scale and in the economics of integration and the development and acceptability of new bio-engineering technologies. In the medium term, increased output is likely to require expansion in new environments, further intensification and efficiency gains for more sustainable and cost-effective production. The trend towards enhanced intensive systems with key monocultures remains strong and, at least for the foreseeable future, will be a significant contributor to future supplies. Dependence on external feeds (including fish), water and energy are key issues. Some new species will enter production and policies that support the reduction of resource footprints and improve integration could lead to new developments as well as reversing decline in some more traditional systems. PMID:20713392

Future Expectations, Attitude Toward Violence, and Bullying Perpetration During Early Adolescence: A Mediation Evaluation.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Varela, Jorge J; Zimmerman, Marc A

2015-01-01

Hopeful future expectations have been linked to positive developmental outcomes in adolescence; however, the association between future expectations and bullying perpetration has received less attention. We examined the relationship between future expectations and physical and relational bullying perpetration and tested a mediation model that linked future expectations with bullying through attitude toward violence. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the relationship between future expectations and bullying perpetration (relational and physical) and to test whether these relationships were mediated by attitude toward violence in a sample of U.S. seventh-grade students (Mage = 12.86 years, N = 196, 60% female, 46% African American). Attitude toward violence fully mediated the relationship between future expectations and physical bullying (indirect effects = -0.08, 95% CI [-0.15, -0.01], R = .17). The relationship between future expectations and relational bullying was partially mediated by attitudes toward violence (indirect effects = -0.07, 95% CI [-0.14, -0.002], R = .20). Our findings suggest that future expectations can play a role in reducing attitude toward violence and physical and relational bullying perpetration among youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in bullying prevention efforts.

An overview of computer-based natural language processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, W. B.

1983-01-01

Computer based Natural Language Processing (NLP) is the key to enabling humans and their computer based creations to interact with machines in natural language (like English, Japanese, German, etc., in contrast to formal computer languages). The doors that such an achievement can open have made this a major research area in Artificial Intelligence and Computational Linguistics. Commercial natural language interfaces to computers have recently entered the market and future looks bright for other applications as well. This report reviews the basic approaches to such systems, the techniques utilized, applications, the state of the art of the technology, issues and research requirements, the major participants and finally, future trends and expectations. It is anticipated that this report will prove useful to engineering and research managers, potential users, and others who will be affected by this field as it unfolds.

What goes up must . . . Keep going up? Cultural differences in cognitive styles influence evaluations of dynamic performance.

PubMed

Ferris, D Lance; Reb, Jochen; Lian, Huiwen; Sim, Samantha; Ang, Dionysius

2018-03-01

Past research on dynamic workplace performance evaluation has taken as axiomatic that temporal performance trends produce naïve extrapolation effects on performance ratings. That is, we naïvely assume that an individual whose performance has trended upward over time will continue to improve, and rate that individual more positively than an individual whose performance has trended downward over time-even if, on average, the 2 individuals have performed at an equivalent level. However, we argue that such naïve extrapolation effects are more pronounced in Western countries than Eastern countries, owing to Eastern countries having a more holistic cognitive style. To test our hypotheses, we examined the effect of performance trend on expectations of future performance and ratings of past performance across 2 studies: Study 1 compares the magnitude of naïve extrapolation effects among Singaporeans primed with either a more or less holistic cognitive style, and Study 2 examines holistic cognitive style as a mediating mechanism accounting for differences in the magnitude of naïve extrapolation effects between American and Chinese raters. Across both studies, we found support for our predictions that dynamic performance trends have less impact on the ratings of more holistic thinkers. Implications for the dynamic performance and naïve extrapolation literatures are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

High School and Youth Trends

MedlinePlus

... High School and Youth Trends Monitoring the Future Survey: High School and Youth Trends Email Facebook Twitter ... December 2017 This year's Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey of drug use and attitudes among 8th, 10th, ...

A mixed methods analysis of experiences and expectations among early-career medical oncologists in Australia.

PubMed

Wong, W K Tim; Kirby, Emma; Broom, Alex; Sibbritt, David; Francis, Kay; Karapetis, Christos S; Karikios, Deme; Harrup, Rosemary; Lwin, Zarnie

2018-01-26

A viable and sustainable medical oncology profession is integral for meeting the increasing demand for quality cancer care. The aim of this study was to explore the workforce-related experiences, perceptions and career expectations of early-career medical oncologists in Australia. A mixed-methods design, including a survey (n  =  170) and nested qualitative semistructured interviews (n  =  14) with early-career medical oncologists. Recruitment was through the Medical Oncology Group of Australia. Qualitative data were thematically analyzed and for the survey results, logistic regression modeling was conducted. Early-career medical oncologists experienced uncertainty regarding their future employment opportunities. The competitive job market has made them cautious about securing a preferred job leading to a perceived need to improve their qualifications through higher degree training and research activities. The following themes and trends were identified from the qualitative and quantitative analyses: age, career stage and associated early-career uncertainty; locale, professional competition and training preferences; participation in research and evolving professional expectations; and workload and career development opportunities as linked to career uncertainty. Perceived diminished employment opportunities in the medical oncology profession, and shifting expectations to be "more qualified," have increased uncertainty among junior medical oncologists in terms of their future career prospects. Structural factors relating to adequate funding of medical oncology positions may facilitate or inhibit progressive change in the workforce and its sustainability. Workforce planning and strategies informed by findings from this study will be necessary in ensuring that both the needs of cancer patients and of medical oncologists are met. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review.

PubMed

Hellberg, Rosalee S; Chu, Eric

2016-08-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.

Prevalence of disability in Australian elderly: Impact of trends in obesity and diabetes.

PubMed

Wong, Evelyn; Woodward, Mark; Stevenson, Christopher; Backholer, Kathryn; Sarink, Danja; Peeters, Anna

2016-01-01

We aimed to estimate the impact of past and future changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence in mid-life on disability prevalence for adult Australians. We analysed data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) including participants aged 45-64years, disability-free at baseline (1999/2000) with disability information at follow-up (2011/12) (n=2107). We used coefficients from multinomial logistic regression to predict 10-year probabilities of disability and death from baseline predictors (age, sex, obesity, smoking, diabetes and hypertension). We estimated the prevalence of disability attributable to past (1980) and expected future (2025) changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence using the life table approach. We estimated that the prevalence of disability for those aged between 55 and 74years would have been 1697 cases per 100,000 persons less in 2010 (10.3% less) if the rates of obesity and diabetes observed in 2000 had been as low as the levels observed in 1980. However, if instead the prevalence of obesity and diabetes had been as high as the levels expected in 2025, then the prevalence of disability would have been an additional 2173 per 100,000 persons (an additional 13.2%). We demonstrate, for the first time, a substantial potential impact of obesity and diabetes trends on disability amongst those aged 55-74years. In Australian adults by 2025 we estimate that around 26% of disability cases would have been avoidable if there had been no change in obesity and diabetes prevalence since 1980. A similar impact is likely around the world in developed countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased Educational Attainment among U.S. Mothers and their Children's Academic Expectations.

PubMed

Augustine, Jennifer

2017-12-01

Existing research provides strong evidence that children with more educated parents have higher academic expectations for themselves, but has yet to consider how an increase in the education of lower educated mothers might alter the expectations of their children. In light of the historic increase in U.S. mothers' pursuit of additional education, this study investigates this timely question using data from a nationally representative, intergenerational sample of U.S. children and mothers participating in the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth ( n mothers = 3,265; n children = 8,027). Combining random and fixed effects procedures, the findings revealed that that an increase in mothers' educational attainment is linked to an increase in their children's expectations to earn a Bachelor's degree. Increased maternal education did not, however, buffer against the risk that children will downgrade these expectations upon approaching the end of high school. These results have theoretical importance to traditional models of status attainment, which typically view parental education as a stable feature of family background; extend a small but burgeoning literature that explores whether and why increased maternal education improves the mobility prospects of their children; and speak to current two-generation policy approaches that aim to leverage trends in mothers education to reduce inequality for future generations.

A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

2017-12-01

Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

Changing Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustine, David D.; Adams, Layne G.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, yet the rate of change has been varied across the North Slope, leading scientists to question the future response and resilience of wildlife populations, such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus), that rely on tundra habitats for forage. Future changes in temperature and precipitation to coastal wet sedge and upland low shrub tundra are expected, with unknown consequences for caribou that rely on these plant communities for food. Understanding how future environmental change may affect caribou migration, nutrition, and reproduction is a focal question being addressed by the USGS CAE research. Results will inform management agencies in Alaska and people that rely on caribou for food.

Ingestion of marine debris by the White-chinned Petrel (Procellaria aequinoctialis): Is it increasing over time off southern Brazil?

PubMed

Petry, Maria V; Benemann, Victória R F

2017-04-15

Seabirds are amongst the most affected organisms by plastic pollution worldwide. Ingestion of marine debris has been reported in at least 122 species, and owing to the increasing global production and persistence of these anthropogenic materials within the marine environment, it is expected to be a growing problem to the marine fauna. Here we report evidence of an increasing frequency in marine debris ingestion and a decrease in the amount of plastic pellets ingested by White-chinned Petrels attending south Brazilian waters during the last three decades. Future studies comprising large temporal scales and large sample sizes are needed to better understand the trends of marine debris ingestion by seabirds. We expect our findings to highlight the need for prevention policies and mitigation measures to reduce the amount of solid litter in the oceans. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrospective Observational Study of Atypical Winter Respiratory Illness Season Using Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance, England, 2014–15

PubMed Central

Morbey, Roger; Pebody, Richard G.; Hughes, Thomas C.; de Lusignan, Simon; Yeates, F. Alex; Thomas, Helen; O’Brien, Sarah J.; Smith, Gillian E.; Elliot, Alex J.

2017-01-01

During winter 2014–15, England experienced severe strains on acute health services. We investigated whether syndromic surveillance could contribute to understanding of the unusually high level of healthcare needs. We compared trends for several respiratory syndromic indicators from that winter to historical baselines. Cumulative and mean incidence rates were compared by winter and age group. All-age influenza-like illness was at expected levels; however, severe asthma and pneumonia levels were above those expected. Across several respiratory indicators, cumulative incidence rates during 2014–15 were similar to those of previous years, but higher for older persons; we saw increased rates of acute respiratory disease, including influenza like illness, severe asthma, and pneumonia, in the 65–74- and >75-year age groups. Age group–specific statistical algorithms may provide insights into the burden on health services and improve early warning in future winters. PMID:29048277

Communication satellite payload technologies - State of the art and trends in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mica, G.; Coirault, R.

1982-09-01

Communication satellite payload technologies are examined, in terms of past, present, and future ESA guidelines. Various existing payload systems are presented, such as Marecs, ECS, and L-Sat (which will carry four payloads). Future services within the market include 2 Mb/sec high speed data, 2-8 Mb/sec video conference, and 64 Mb/sec television distribution, and growth in these areas is dependent on traffic requirements. Pre-operational satellites are outlined, for example Telecom 1 has an estimated system capacity of 150 Mb/sec, Italsat has an expected 1180 Mb/sec, and DFS demonstrates a possible 1540 Mb/sec capacity. It is found that the 20/30 GHz band should be applied for use in wideband and high capacity trunks among heavy traffic centers. To accommodate for the noise in this waveband, the parametric amplifier developed for L-Sat must be used. Finally, development objectives for future programs include improving spectrum and geostationary orbit utilization, cost-efficiency, and standardization of systems.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Racial and ethnic differences in the retirement prospects of divorced women in the Baby Boom and Generation X cohorts.

PubMed

Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E

2012-01-01

Blacks, Hispanics, and divorced women have historically experienced double-digit poverty rates in retirement, and divorce and other demographic trends will increase their representation in future retiree populations. For these reasons, we might expect an increase in the proportion of economically vulnerable divorced women in the future. This article uses the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term (version 6) to describe the likely characteristics, work experience, Social Security benefit status, and economic well-being of future divorced women at age 70 by race and ethnicity. Factors associated with higher retirement incomes include having a college degree; having a strong history of labor force attachment; receiving Social Security benefits; and having pensions, retirement accounts, or assets, regardless of race and ethnicity. However, because divorced black and Hispanic women are less likely than divorced white women to have these attributes, income sources, or assets, their projected average retirement incomes are lower than those of divorced white women.

Promoting Positive Future Expectations During Adolescence: The Role of Assets.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Pierce, Jennifer

2015-12-01

Positive future expectations can facilitate optimal development and contribute to healthier outcomes for youth. Researchers suggest that internal resources and community-level factors may influence adolescent future expectations, yet little is known about the processes through which these benefits are conferred. The present study examined the relationship between contribution to community, neighborhood collective efficacy, purpose, hope and future expectations, and tested a mediation model that linked contribution to community and collective efficacy with future expectations through purpose and hope in a sample of 7th grade youth (N = 196; Mage = 12.39; 60 % female; 40 % African American; 71 % economically disadvantaged). Greater collective efficacy and contribution to community predicted higher levels of hope and purpose. Higher levels of hope and purpose predicted more positive future expectations. Contribution to community and neighborhood collective efficacy indirectly predicted future expectations via hope. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Promoting Positive Future Expectations during Adolescence: The Role of Assets

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Sarah A.; Pierce, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Positive future expectations can facilitate optimal development and contribute to healthier outcomes for youth. Researchers suggest that internal resources and community-level factors may influence adolescent future expectations, yet little is known about the processes through which these benefits are conferred. The present study examined the relationship between contribution to community, neighborhood collective efficacy, purpose, hope and future expectations, and tested a mediation model that linked contribution to community and collective efficacy with future expectations through purpose and hope in a sample of 7th grade youth (N = 196; Mage = 12.39; 60% female; 40% African American; 71% economically disadvantaged). Greater collective efficacy and contribution to community predicted higher levels of hope and purpose. Higher levels of hope and purpose predicted more positive future expectations. Contribution to community and neighborhood collective efficacy indirectly predicted future expectations via hope. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:26385095

Perspectives On The Global Budget of Methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, M. K.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Shearer, M. J.

2008-12-01

Early budgets of methane focused on the emissions from individual sources but the estimates had large uncertainties. These uncertainties have been reduced considerably in recent years, but we need an understanding of the trends in the sources as well as their spatial distributions if we are to use methane to control global warming. A nearly 30 year long time series of global atmospheric methane concentrations has accumulated that can provide some of the answers. One of the most dramatic findings is that the increase of methane has nearly stopped in the last decade. But the record also shows that the trend was falling ever since systematic measurements were taken, and perhaps even before that. This finding has led to some puzzles. There is a belief that the anthropogenic sources of methane are increasing but to explain the falling trend we need decreasing sources (or increasing sinks). In fact, the atmospheric measurements show only that the most probable explanation for the decreasing trend and the present near constancy of concentrations is that the global source of methane has been more or less constant over the last 30 years with many short-term ups and downs. Moreover, there is good evidence that some of the major man-made sources of methane, such as cattle, biomass burning and possibly others, have stopped increasing some time back and other sources such as rice agriculture may have decreased over the last 30 years. This allows some smaller energy based sources to have increased, consistent with expectations, and balance out the decreasing sources to keep the total more or less constant. A credible quantitative case can be made for a stable global source based on available information on the trends of the various sources and sinks of methane, but uncertainties remain. We will argue that the stability of sources and sinks is the most likely explanation of the methane concentration trends. We will use this result to re-evaluate the future of man- made methane and its role in global warming. The current IPCC scenarios project a wide range of possible anthropogenic emissions by the year 2100 from 240 Tg/y, which is 25% less than present emissions to 1070 Tg/y which is more than 3 times present emissions. The stabilization or reduction in major man-made sources at this time greatly limits the possibility of major increases in these sources in the future. We will discuss the expected trends of sources to reduce the uncertainty in projected concentrations. These results will in turn contribute to a more realistic use of methane in controlling global warming under current and pending policies or treaties to control greenhouse gas emissions. This research was supported by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. DOE grant # DE-FG02-08ER64515 and DE-FG02-04ER63913.

Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

PubMed

Hashmi, S S

1990-01-01

Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment. Past trends in the labor force, employment and unemployment, and employment by major industry are reported. The labor force participation rate of 29.6% in 1985 is among the lowest in the world. The age structure of the population, inadequate human resource development, and underreporting of females in the labor force account for the low rates. Population grew by 96.5% between 1961 and 81, but labor force increased 77.3% and employment 74.4%. The greatest growth was in the nonagricultural sector. Prospective trends show agricultural labor force growing from 15.1 million in 1981 to 20.2 million in 2006, which is expected to put pressure on agricultural land. Female nonagricultural sector labor force is expected to grow due to increased literacy and fertility declines.

Behavioral medicine: a voyage to the future.

PubMed

Keefe, Francis J

2011-04-01

This paper discusses trends and future directions in behavioral medicine. It is divided into three sections. The first briefly reviews key developments in the history of behavioral medicine. The second section highlights trends and future directions in pain research and practice as a way of illustrating future directions for behavioral medicine. Consistent with the biopsychosocial model of pain, this section focuses on trends and future directions in three key areas: biological, psychological, and social. The third section describes recent Society of Behavioral Medicine initiatives designed to address some of the key challenges facing our field as we prepare for the future.

Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Martin, Philip; McGuire, A. David

2018-01-01

Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.

Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions.

PubMed

Lara, Mark J; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Martin, Philip; McGuire, A David

2018-02-05

Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999-2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2014.

PubMed

Schumock, Glen T; Li, Edward C; Suda, Katie J; Matusiak, Linda M; Hunkler, Robert J; Vermeulen, Lee C; Hoffman, James M

2014-03-15

An analysis of trends in U.S. pharmaceutical spending is presented, including projections for drug expenditures in nonfederal hospital and clinic settings in 2014. Trends in pharmaceutical expenditures and developments likely to influence future spending, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were analyzed using data from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database. Projections were based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and expert opinion. Total prescription sales for the 12 months ending September 2013 were approximately $326 billion, 0.7% lower than sales during the previous 12 months; pharmaceutical spending by clinics and nonfederal hospitals grew by 4.5% and 1.8%, respectively. Vaccines were among the products driving large sales increases in clinic settings, with alteplase and pegfilgrastim topping the list of fast-growing drugs by hospital expenditures. Few new drug approvals anticipated in 2014 are expected to result in major expenditures by hospitals and clinics. Expansion of access to health care and other changes related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, as well as continued improvement in the U.S. economy, may drive growth in pharmaceutical spending over the next 12-24 months. Growth in U.S. prescription drug expenditures is expected to rebound in 2014, with a projected 3-5% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings this year, including a 5-7% increase in clinic spending and a 1-3% increase in hospital spending. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug-utilization patterns to determine their respective organization's anticipated spending in 2014.

Using Future Trends to Inform Planning/Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nichols, John V.

1995-01-01

Explores the reasons for incorporating trend analysis of librarianship into library planning and marketing. Key financial and technological issues are reviewed, and the techniques of environmental scanning and alternative scenario-building to incorporate future trends are discussed. (AEF)

Taking Charge of Your Career Path: A Future Trend of the Workforce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiMattina, Cara; Ferris, Lisa-Anne

2013-01-01

Workplace trends portray relevant information regarding the present and future of the workforce and its members. These trends signify changes within the workplace regarding performance, retention, satisfaction and many other areas that affect the individual employee, as well as the organization and industry as a whole. Trends can be seen in…

The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2014-12-01

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.

Employment and income trends and projections for forest-based sectors in the U.S

Treesearch

Karen L. Abt

2013-01-01

Key FindingsThe southern logging sector is expected to experience small increases in both industry output (3 percent) and jobs (2 percent) from 2008 to 2018. Increased demand from bioenergy is expected to counteract increasing trends toward mechanization and reduced demand from some traditional wood-using industries.Southern...

Have artificial neural networks met expectations in drug discovery as implemented in QSAR framework?

PubMed

Dobchev, Dimitar; Karelson, Mati

2016-07-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are highly adaptive nonlinear optimization algorithms that have been applied in many diverse scientific endeavors, ranging from economics, engineering, physics, and chemistry to medical science. Notably, in the past two decades, ANNs have been used widely in the process of drug discovery. In this review, the authors discuss advantages and disadvantages of ANNs in drug discovery as incorporated into the quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) framework. Furthermore, the authors examine the recent studies, which span over a broad area with various diseases in drug discovery. In addition, the authors attempt to answer the question about the expectations of the ANNs in drug discovery and discuss the trends in this field. The old pitfalls of overtraining and interpretability are still present with ANNs. However, despite these pitfalls, the authors believe that ANNs have likely met many of the expectations of researchers and are still considered as excellent tools for nonlinear data modeling in QSAR. It is likely that ANNs will continue to be used in drug development in the future.

Modelling changes in small area disability free life expectancy: trends in London wards between 2001 and 2011.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2014-12-20

Existing analyses of trends in disability free life expectancy (DFLE) are mainly at aggregate level (national or broad regional). However, major differences in DFLE, and trends in these expectancies, exist between different neighbourhoods within regions, so supporting a small area perspective. However, this raises issues regarding the stability of conventional life table estimation methods at small area scales. This paper advocates a Bayesian borrowing strength technique to model trends in mortality and disability differences across 625 small areas in London, using illness data from the 2001 and 2011 population Censuses, and deaths data for two periods centred on the Census years. From this analysis, estimates of total life expectancy and DFLE are obtained. The spatio-temporal modelling perspective allows assessment of whether significant compression or expansion of morbidity has occurred in each small area. Appropriate models involve random effects that recognise correlation and interaction effects over relevant dimensions of the observed deaths and illness data (areas, ages), as well as major spatial trends (e.g. gradients in health and mortality according to area deprivation category). Whilst borrowing strength is a primary consideration (and demonstrated by raised precision for estimated life expectancies), so also is model parsimony. Therefore, pure borrowing strength models are compared with models allowing selection of random age-area interaction effects using a spike-slab prior, and in fact borrowing strength combined with random effects selection provides better fit. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pediatric Orthopaedic Workforce in 2014: Current Workforce and Projections for the Future.

PubMed

Sawyer, Jeffrey R; Jones, Kerwyn C; Copley, Lawson A; Chambers, Stephanie

2017-01-01

The changing nature of the United States (US) health care system has prompted debate concerning the physician supply. The basic questions are: do we have an adequate number of surgeons to meet current demands and are we training the correct number of surgeons to meet future demands? The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce in terms of supply and demand, both present and future. Databases were searched (POSNA, SF Match, KID, MGMA) to determine the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce and workforce distribution, as well as pediatric orthopaedic demand. The number of active Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America (POSNA) members increased over the past 20 years, from 410 in 1993 to 653 in 2014 (155% increase); however, the density of POSNA members is not equally distributed, but correlates to population density. The number of estimated pediatric discharges, orthopaedic and nonorthopaedic, has remained relatively stable from 6,348,537 in 1997 to 5,850,184 in 2012. Between 2003 and 2013, the number of pediatric orthopaedic fellows graduating from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and non-Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education programs increased from 39 to 50 (29%), with a peak of 67 fellows (71%) in 2009. Although predicting the exact need for pediatric orthopaedic surgeons (POS) is impossible because of the complex interplay among macroeconomic, governmental, insurance, and local factors, some trends were identified: the supply of POS has increased, which may offset the expected numbers of experienced surgeons who will be leaving the workforce in the next 10 to 15 years; macroeconomic factors influencing demand for physician services, driven by gross domestic product and population growth, are expected to be stable in the near future; expansion of the scope of practice for POS is expected to continue; and further similar assessments are warranted. Level II-economic and decision analysis.

The environmental history and probable future of fluorocarbon-11

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, M. A. K.; Rasmussen, R. A.

1993-12-01

The atmospheric concentration of fluorocarbon 11 (F-11) has increased steadily since it was first put into commercial use in the late 1930s and early 1940s. The observed trends, however, have two periods of dramatic declines. The first occurred around 1974, when trends started falling from their all time high of 13.8 pptv/yr down to around 7.8 pptv/yr (1 pptv = 10-12 parts by volume) in 1982. This decline occurred at first, probably, because of market conditions and later because of the ban in the United States on inessential uses of F-11, particularly in aerosol spray cans. In the meantime, other uses of F-11, such as blowing foams, increased, causing an increasing trend once again until around 1987, when the atmospheric trends reached 11 pptv/yr (measured 1986-1988, inclusive). After this time, however, the trends have fallen dramatically and are now only 4.6 pptv/yr (measured 1990-1992) and even lower in the middle northern latitudes (about 2 pptv/yr). The recent decline of trend is attributed to the effect of the Montreal Protocol and subsequent agreements that are designed to ban worldwide production before the turn of this century. The atmospheric trends reflect estimated emissions, which reached highest values in 1974 (340-355 Gg/yr; 1 Gg = 109g) and again in 1988 (314-380 Gg/yr). The observed concentrations and trends agree extremely well with those calculated from independent estimates of emissions from the various sources. Atmospheric concentrations of F-11 are calculated from a mass balance theory involving seven reservoirs and their interactions. Three of the reservoirs are at the Earth's surface arising from the uses of F-11 (quick-release applications such as open cell foams and aerosols, nonhermetically sealed refrigeration, and rigid polyurethane foams). We estimate that of the 9150 Gg of F-11 that have been produced throughout its history, at present about 1040 Gg are tied up in rigid foams (90 Gg and 24 Gg are tied up in refrigeration and quick-release applications, respectively). There are four environmental reservoirs (deep oceans, the ocean mixed layer, the troposphere, and the stratosphere). F-11 is dynamically exchanged between these reservoirs and is destroyed principally by photolysis in the stratosphere and by soils at the Earth's surface. At present there are about 5360 Gg in the troposphere, 740 Gg in the stratosphere, and small amounts in the oceans (27 Gg and 6 Gg in the mixed layer and deep oceans, respectively). About 81% of the 9 Tg of F-11 produced is still in the surface or environmental reservoirs (1 Tg = 1012g). The future concentrations of F-11 depend on leakage rates from the surface reservoirs and the atmospheric lifetime. It seems that concentrations are not likely to reach the peaks expected earlier and are likely to decline faster than previously thought. The peak concentration is expected to be about 275 pptv and may occur within the next 2 to 3 years. This abstract, the figures, and their captions form a self-contained condensed description of our results.

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries.

PubMed

2017-05-20

The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9·21 trillion in 2014 to $24·24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20·47-29·72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5·3% (UI 4·1-6·8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4·2% (3·8-4·9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2·1% (UI 1·8-2·4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1·8% (1·0-2·8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and $195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Recent hip fracture trends in Sweden and Denmark with age-period-cohort effects.

PubMed

Rosengren, B E; Björk, J; Cooper, C; Abrahamsen, B

2017-01-01

This study used nationwide hip fracture data from Denmark and Sweden during 1987-2010 to examine effects of (birth) cohort and period. We found that time trends, cohort, and period effects were different in the two countries. Results also indicated that hip fracture rates may increase in the not so far future. The reasons for the downturn in hip fracture rates remain largely unclear but circumstances earlier in life seem important. We ascertained hip fractures in the populations ≥50 years in Denmark and Sweden in national discharge registers. Country- and sex-specific age-period-cohort (APC) effects during 1987-2010 were evaluated by log-likelihood estimates in Poisson regression models presented as incidence rate ratios (IRR). There were 399,596 hip fractures in SE and 248,773 in DK. Age-standardized hip fracture rate was stable in SE men but decreased in SE women and in DK. Combined period + cohort effects were generally stronger in SE than DK and in women than men. IRR per period ranged from 1.05 to 1.30 in SE and 0.95 to 1.21 in DK. IRR per birth cohort ranged from 1.07 to 3.13 in SE and 0.77 to 1.67 in DK. Relative period effects decreased with successive period in SE and described a convex curve in DK. Relative cohort effects increased with successive birth cohort in both countries but with lower risks for DK women and men and SE women born around the 1930s (age 75-86 years today and responsible for most hip fractures) partly explaining the recent downturn. Men and women born thereafter however seem to have a higher hip fracture risk, and we expect a reversal of the present decline in rates, with increasing hip fracture rates in both Denmark and Sweden during the upcoming decade. Time trends, cohort, and period effects were different in SE and DK. This may reflect differences in general health as evident in known differences in life expectancy, healthcare organization, and prevention such as use of anti-osteoporosis drugs. Analyses indicate that hip fracture rates may increase in the not so far future.

Stretching the managed care dollar in the new millennium: the practice of detailing primary care physicians.

PubMed

Hill, Cynthia D; Bunn, Douglas N; Hawkins, Jenny Rae

2002-01-01

Pharmaceutical expenditures in this country are on the rise and the increase is expected to continue at double-digit rates in the foreseeable future. This study focuses on the ways in which the managed care industry can impact pharmaceutical costs through peer-to-peer data sharing or academic detailing. Making use of analysis in conjunction with a major Midwestern Health Maintenance Organization, we evaluate the immediate impacts of academic detailing efforts, and find it to have a substantial mitigating impact on pharmaceutical trends. Moreover, we find academic detailing to be cost-effective means of altering physician-prescribing behavior.

Equatorial oceanography. [review of research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Sarachik, E. S.

1983-01-01

United States progress in equatorial oceanography is reviewed, focusing on the low frequency response of upper equatorial oceans to forcing by the wind. Variations of thermocline depth, midocean currents, and boundary currents are discussed. The factors which determine sea surface temperature (SST) variability in equatorial oceans are reviewed, and the status of understanding of the most spectacular manifestation of SST variability, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is discussed. The problem of observing surface winds, regarded as a fundamental factor limiting understanding of the equatorial oceans, is addressed. Finally, an attempt is made to identify those current trends which are expected to bear fruit in the near and distant future.

Modeling and dynamic monitoring of ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, L.; Ji, Lei; Tieszen, Larry L.; Bliss, N.B.

2008-01-01

Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented by the growing season integral of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is a measure of greenness that can be interpreted in terms of plant growth or photosynthetic activity (gross primary productivity). The approach illustrates the status and trends of ecosystem changes and separates the influences of climate and local site conditions from the influences of disturbances and land management.We emphasize the ability to quantify ecosystem processes, not simply changes in land cover, across the entire period of the remote sensing archive (Wylie and others, 2008). The method builds upon remotely sensed measures of vegetation greenness for each growing season. By itself, however, a time series of greenness often reflects annual climate variations in temperature and precipitation. Our method seeks to remove the influence of climate so that changes in underlying ecological conditions are identified and quantified. We define an "expected ecosystem performance" to represent the greenness response expected in a particular year given the climate of that year. We distinguish "performance anomalies" as cases where the ecosystem response is significantly different from the expected ecosystem performance. Maps of the performance anomalies (fig. 1) and trends in the anomalies give valuable information on the ecosystems for land managers and policy makers at a resolution of 1 km to 250 m.

African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control 1995–2015: Model-Estimated Health Impact and Cost

PubMed Central

Coffeng, Luc E.; Stolk, Wilma A.; Zouré, Honorat G. M.; Veerman, J. Lennert; Agblewonu, Koffi B.; Murdoch, Michele E.; Noma, Mounkaila; Fobi, Grace; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Bundy, Donald A. P.; Habbema, Dik; de Vlas, Sake J.; Amazigo, Uche V.

2013-01-01

Background Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. Methods and Findings With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Conclusions Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future. PMID:23383355

African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost.

PubMed

Coffeng, Luc E; Stolk, Wilma A; Zouré, Honorat G M; Veerman, J Lennert; Agblewonu, Koffi B; Murdoch, Michele E; Noma, Mounkaila; Fobi, Grace; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Bundy, Donald A P; Habbema, Dik; de Vlas, Sake J; Amazigo, Uche V

2013-01-01

Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

Past and Future Trends in Automobile Sales

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-07-01

The report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I) and its associates data bases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the automobile market. Part A analyzes the historical trends, generally covering the 1958-1976 period, ...

First-Year Evaluation of Mexico’s Tax on Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods: An Observational Study

PubMed Central

Rivera, Juan A.; Popkin, Barry M.; Taillie, Lindsey Smith

2016-01-01

Background In an effort to prevent continued increases in obesity and diabetes, in January 2014, the Mexican government implemented an 8% tax on nonessential foods with energy density ≥275 kcal/100 g and a peso-per-liter tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Limited rigorous evaluations of food taxes exist worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine changes in volume of taxed and untaxed packaged food purchases in response to these taxes in the entire sample and stratified by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods and Findings This study uses data on household packaged food purchases representative of the Mexican urban population from The Nielsen Company’s Mexico Consumer Panel Services (CPS). We included 6,248 households that participated in the Nielsen CPS in at least 2 mo during 2012–2014; average household follow-up was 32.7 mo. We analyzed the volume of purchases of taxed and untaxed foods from January 2012 to December 2014, using a longitudinal, fixed-effects model that adjusted for preexisting trends to test whether the observed post-tax trend was significantly different from the one expected based on the pre-tax trend. We controlled for household characteristics and contextual factors like minimum salary and unemployment rate. The mean volume of purchases of taxed foods in 2014 changed by -25 g (95% confidence interval = -46, -11) per capita per month, or a 5.1% change beyond what would have been expected based on pre-tax (2012–2013) trends, with no corresponding change in purchases of untaxed foods. Low SES households purchased on average 10.2% less taxed foods than expected (-44 [–72, –16] g per capita per month); medium SES households purchased 5.8% less taxed foods than expected (-28 [–46, –11] g per capita per month), whereas high SES households’ purchases did not change. The main limitations of our findings are the inability to infer causality because the taxes were implemented at the national level (lack of control group), our sample is only representative of urban areas, we only have 2 y of data prior to the tax, and, as with any consumer panel survey, we did not capture all foods purchased by the household. Conclusions Household purchases of nonessential energy-dense foods declined in the first year after the implementation of Mexico’s SSB and nonessential foods taxes. Future studies should evaluate the impact of the taxes on overall energy intake, dietary quality, and food purchase patterns (see S1 Abstract in Spanish). PMID:27379797

First-Year Evaluation of Mexico's Tax on Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Batis, Carolina; Rivera, Juan A; Popkin, Barry M; Taillie, Lindsey Smith

2016-07-01

In an effort to prevent continued increases in obesity and diabetes, in January 2014, the Mexican government implemented an 8% tax on nonessential foods with energy density ≥275 kcal/100 g and a peso-per-liter tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Limited rigorous evaluations of food taxes exist worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine changes in volume of taxed and untaxed packaged food purchases in response to these taxes in the entire sample and stratified by socioeconomic status (SES). This study uses data on household packaged food purchases representative of the Mexican urban population from The Nielsen Company's Mexico Consumer Panel Services (CPS). We included 6,248 households that participated in the Nielsen CPS in at least 2 mo during 2012-2014; average household follow-up was 32.7 mo. We analyzed the volume of purchases of taxed and untaxed foods from January 2012 to December 2014, using a longitudinal, fixed-effects model that adjusted for preexisting trends to test whether the observed post-tax trend was significantly different from the one expected based on the pre-tax trend. We controlled for household characteristics and contextual factors like minimum salary and unemployment rate. The mean volume of purchases of taxed foods in 2014 changed by -25 g (95% confidence interval = -46, -11) per capita per month, or a 5.1% change beyond what would have been expected based on pre-tax (2012-2013) trends, with no corresponding change in purchases of untaxed foods. Low SES households purchased on average 10.2% less taxed foods than expected (-44 [-72, -16] g per capita per month); medium SES households purchased 5.8% less taxed foods than expected (-28 [-46, -11] g per capita per month), whereas high SES households' purchases did not change. The main limitations of our findings are the inability to infer causality because the taxes were implemented at the national level (lack of control group), our sample is only representative of urban areas, we only have 2 y of data prior to the tax, and, as with any consumer panel survey, we did not capture all foods purchased by the household. Household purchases of nonessential energy-dense foods declined in the first year after the implementation of Mexico's SSB and nonessential foods taxes. Future studies should evaluate the impact of the taxes on overall energy intake, dietary quality, and food purchase patterns (see S1 Abstract in Spanish).

The Effect of Recent Trends on Dental Hygiene.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglass, Chester W.

1991-01-01

Six trends affecting dental hygiene practice are discussed: demographic changes; disease pattern changes; higher societal expectations; financing and delivery system changes; technological advancement; and regulatory and legislative trends. It is argued that, though the trends reflect positively on dental hygiene, practitioners need to increase…

Changes in mortality in Pakistan 1960-88.

PubMed

Sathar, Z A

1991-01-01

General trends in Pakistan infant/child mortality, adult mortality, differentials in mortality, and prospects for future declines in mortality are presented. Future mortality declines are desired and recognized by government policy. Paucity of data and quality control issues cloud an accurate presentation of trends. The crude death rate (CDR) has nonetheless declined in 4 decades form 40-50/1000 in 1900 to 10-12/1000 in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The 1984-88 Pakistan Demographic Survey (PDS) reports a CDR of 10.8/1000. Life expectancy is expected to improve. The majority of deaths are infant/child related. Government policy aims to have 1 trained traditional birth attendant/village in order to improve maternal and child care. Although official statistics are in dispute, there is general agreement that infant mortality has declined particularly in neonatal mortality, i.e., infant mortality is now at 56-62/1000 and neonatal mortality 48/1000 in 1988. Data are derived from the Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS), and Population Labor Force and Migration Survey (PLM) in the 1960-70s, the 1976-79 Population Growth Surveys (PGS), and the 1984-88 PDS. Lower death rates have also occurred among adults. Sex differentials in mortality have reversed, although the sex ratio still favors males; the improvement may be due to better reporting of female mortality. Life expectancy has improved for women, and there are gains over males. The disadvantage at 15-40 years has been eliminated. Differential mortality is expressed geographically, where urban mortality is much lower than in rural areas. There is a relationship between mothers who have some education and lower infant mortality. Labor force participation effects on mortality are dependent on the reasons for work: economic necessity or in pursuance of a career and supplemental income. Findings on the relationship between income or social class and mortality are equivocal. Improvements are dependent on further fertility declines through birth spacing, educational attainment increases, contraceptive use increases, and the declining trend in length of breast feeding. The Population Program needs to achieve its targets of reducing family size norms and greater spacing between children. Improvements in combating communicable disease, including infective and parasitic diseases, are integral to decline in death rates. Better sanitation, particularly in slums, and availability of potable water are government objectives and will contribute to mortality decline. Access and availability of health care are crucial to improvements, particularly in rural areas.

Estimation of Future Return Levels for Heavy Rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula: Comparison of Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parey, S.

2014-12-01

F. J. Acero1, S. Parey2, T.T.H. Hoang2, D. Dacunha-Castelle31Dpto. Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas s/n, 06006, Badajoz 2EDF/R&D, 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France 3Laboratoire de Mathématiques, Université Paris 11, Orsay, France Trends can already be detected in daily rainfall amount in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), and this will have an impact on the extreme levels. In this study, we compare different ways to estimate future return levels for heavy rainfall, based on the statistical extreme value theory. Both Peaks over Threshold (POT) and block maxima with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution will be used and their results compared when linear trends are assumed in the parameters: threshold and scale parameter for POT and location and scale parameter for GEV. But rainfall over the IP is a special variable in that a large number of the values are 0. Thus, the impact of taking this into account is discussed too. Another approach is then tested, based on the evolutions of the mean and variance obtained from the time series of rainy days only, and of the number of rainy days. A statistical test, similar to that designed for temperature in Parey et al. 2013, is used to assess if the trends in extremes can be considered as mostly due to these evolutions when considering only rainy days. The results show that it is mainly the case: the extremes of the residuals, after removing the trends in mean and standard deviation, cannot be differentiated from those of a stationary process. Thus, the future return levels can be estimated from the stationary return level of these residuals and an estimation of the future mean and standard deviation. Moreover, an estimation of the future number of rainy days is used to retrieve the return levels for all days. All of these comparisons are made for an ensemble of high quality rainfall time series observed in the Iberian Peninsula over the period 1961-2010, from which we want to estimate a 20-year return level expected in 2020. The evolutions and the impact of the different approaches will be discussed for 3 seasons: fall, spring and winter. Parey S., Hoang T.T.H., Dacunha-Castelle D.: The importance of mean and variance in predicting changes in temperature extremes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, 1-12, 2013.

Recent intensification of winter haze in China linked to foreign emissions and meteorology.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Wang, Hailong; Smith, Steven J; Zhang, Rudong; Lou, Sijia; Qian, Yun; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J

2018-02-01

Wintertime aerosol pollution in the North China Plain has increased over the past several decades as anthropogenic emissions in China have increased, and has dramatically escalated since the beginning of the 21 st century, but the causes and their quantitative attributions remain unclear. Here we use an aerosol source tagging capability implemented in a global aerosol-climate model to assess long-term trends of PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) in the North China Plain. Our analysis suggests that the impact of China's increasing domestic emissions on PM 2.5 concentrations over the last two decades of 20 th century was partially offset (13%) by decreasing foreign emission over this period. As foreign emissions stabilized after 2000, their counteracting effect almost disappeared, uncovering the impact of China's increasing domestic emissions that had been partially offset in previous years by reductions in foreign emissions. A slowdown in the impact from foreign emission reductions together with weakening winds explain 25% of the increased PM 2.5 trend over 2000-2014 as compared to 1980-2000. Further reductions in foreign emissions are not expected to relieve China's pollution in the future. Reducing local emissions is the most certain way to improve future air quality in the North China Plain.

Stability of Major Geogenic Cations in Drinking Water-An Issue of Public Health Importance: A Danish Study, 1980⁻2017.

PubMed

Wodschow, Kirstine; Hansen, Birgitte; Schullehner, Jörg; Ersbøll, Annette Kjær

2018-06-08

Concentrations and spatial variations of the four cations Na, K, Mg and Ca are known to some extent for groundwater and to a lesser extent for drinking water. Using Denmark as case, the purpose of this study was to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in the major cations in drinking water. The results will contribute to a better exposure estimation in future studies of the association between cations and diseases. Spatial and temporal variations and the association with aquifer types, were analyzed with spatial scan statistics, linear regression and a multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model. About 65,000 water samples of each cation (1980⁻2017) were included in the study. Results of mean concentrations were 31.4 mg/L, 3.5 mg/L, 12.1 mg/L and 84.5 mg/L for 1980⁻2017 for Na, K, Mg and Ca, respectively. An expected west-east trend in concentrations were confirmed, mainly explained by variations in aquifer types. The trend in concentration was stable for about 31⁻45% of the public water supply areas. It is therefore recommended that the exposure estimate in future health related studies not only be based on a single mean value, but that temporal and spatial variations should also be included.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

GCOS reference upper air network (GRUAN): Steps towards assuring future climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, P. W.; Vömel, H.; Bodeker, G.; Sommer, M.; Apituley, A.; Berger, F.; Bojinski, S.; Braathen, G.; Calpini, B.; Demoz, B.; Diamond, H. J.; Dykema, J.; Fassò, A.; Fujiwara, M.; Gardiner, T.; Hurst, D.; Leblanc, T.; Madonna, F.; Merlone, A.; Mikalsen, A.; Miller, C. D.; Reale, T.; Rannat, K.; Richter, C.; Seidel, D. J.; Shiotani, M.; Sisterson, D.; Tan, D. G. H.; Vose, R. S.; Voyles, J.; Wang, J.; Whiteman, D. N.; Williams, S.

2013-09-01

The observational climate record is a cornerstone of our scientific understanding of climate changes and their potential causes. Existing observing networks have been designed largely in support of operational weather forecasting and continue to be run in this mode. Coverage and timeliness are often higher priorities than absolute traceability and accuracy. Changes in instrumentation used in the observing system, as well as in operating procedures, are frequent, rarely adequately documented and their impacts poorly quantified. For monitoring changes in upper-air climate, which is achieved through in-situ soundings and more recently satellites and ground-based remote sensing, the net result has been trend uncertainties as large as, or larger than, the expected emergent signals of climate change. This is more than simply academic with the tropospheric temperature trends issue having been the subject of intense debate, two international assessment reports and several US congressional hearings. For more than a decade the international climate science community has been calling for the instigation of a network of reference quality measurements to reduce uncertainty in our climate monitoring capabilities. This paper provides a brief history of GRUAN developments to date and outlines future plans. Such reference networks can only be achieved and maintained with strong continuing input from the global metrological community.

Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

2018-04-01

Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Garcia, Serge M.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.

2010-01-01

World population is expected to grow from the present 6.8 billion people to about 9 billion by 2050. The growing need for nutritious and healthy food will increase the demand for fisheries products from marine sources, whose productivity is already highly stressed by excessive fishing pressure, growing organic pollution, toxic contamination, coastal degradation and climate change. Looking towards 2050, the question is how fisheries governance, and the national and international policy and legal frameworks within which it is nested, will ensure a sustainable harvest, maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and adapt to climate change. This paper looks at global fisheries production, the state of resources, contribution to food security and governance. It describes the main changes affecting the sector, including geographical expansion, fishing capacity-building, natural variability, environmental degradation and climate change. It identifies drivers and future challenges, while suggesting how new science, policies and interventions could best address those challenges. PMID:20713390

Bioinformatics: perspectives for the future.

PubMed

Costa, Luciano da Fontoura

2004-12-30

I give here a very personal perspective of Bioinformatics and its future, starting by discussing the origin of the term (and area) of bioinformatics and proceeding by trying to foresee the development of related issues, including pattern recognition/data mining, the need to reintegrate biology, the potential of complex networks as a powerful and flexible framework for bioinformatics and the interplay between bio- and neuroinformatics. Human resource formation and market perspective are also addressed. Given the complexity and vastness of these issues and concepts, as well as the limited size of a scientific article and finite patience of the reader, these perspectives are surely incomplete and biased. However, it is expected that some of the questions and trends that are identified will motivate discussions during the IcoBiCoBi round table (with the same name as this article) and perhaps provide a more ample perspective among the participants of that conference and the readers of this text.

Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

PubMed

Day, L H

1995-09-01

The conclusion of this analysis of fertility trends in industrialized countries is that future trends will be evident from accurate data and the inclusion of causal factors such as religion, ethnicity, migration status, marital status, employment status, neighborhood residence, or housing type. Period fertility measures are considered to be unreliable but useful as indicators of potential future changes in fertility. The expectation is that developed countries with low birth rates will have greater fluctuations than trends. Current patterns of fertility in developed countries are thought to have occurred due to substantial control over both the number and the timing of fertility. Patterns in the recent past have reflected further decline, an end to decline and a continued increase, or fluctuation. The most widespread pattern is continued increase following a period of low fertility. This pattern is in evidence in almost every country of northern and western Europe, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand. Countries with continued declines include Japan and eastern and southern European countries, which were the last to experience declines to replacement levels. Countries with fluctuating patterns include Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland. Countries with greater fluctuations include Belgium, Iceland, the former West Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. The argument is made to not count these patterns as fluctuations due to 1) the similarity in magnitude, timing, and direction; 2) the small changes after the low was reached; and 3) their appearance everywhere at the same time. Stability of rates in the future appears to be a reasonable prospect due to the greater openness about human sexuality and the wider roles for women. Changes have occurred in attitudes about family size in the direction of smaller families, and the range in family size has narrowed considerably. Potential increases may occur due to a new emphasis on family and parenthood, the diminished impact of divorce on childbearing, and greater emotional value placed on children, potential dissatisfaction among women in the work force, and loss of interest in acquisition of consumer items and satiety of human wants.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle: Swinging between globalization and regionalization of medical education in Japan.

PubMed

Saiki, Takuya; Imafuku, Rintaro; Suzuki, Yasuyuki; Ban, Nobutaro

2017-10-01

Japan is well known as a super-aging society, with a low birth rate, and has been ranked as one of the countries having the highest quality of healthcare system. Japan's society is currently approaching a major turning point with regard to societal and healthcare reforms, which are influenced by international trends and regional needs. Development of Japanese healthcare human resources, including medical students, is now expected to ride the wave of globalization, while resolving regional problems in the training and delivery of healthcare. Terms and global trends in medical education, such as outcome-based education, community-based education, reflective learning, international accreditation of medical education, and professionalization of educators are well translated into the Japanese language and embraced positively among the Japanese medical educators. However, these trends occasionally sit uncomfortably with cultural variations that are often a common approach in Japan; notably, "hansei" (introspection) and "kaizen" (change for the better). In the world facing a new era where people are unsettled between globalism and regionalism, Japan's future mission is to steer a balanced route that recognizes both global and regional influences and produce global health professionals educators.

Some historical trends in the research and development of aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spearman, M. L.

1983-01-01

A survey of some trends in aircraft design was made in an effort to determine the relation between research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT and E) and aircraft mission capability, requirements, and objectives. Driving forces in the history of aircraft include the quest for speed which involved design concepts incorporating jet propulsion systems and low drag features. The study of high speed design concepts promoted new experimental and analytical research techniques. These research techniques, in turn, have lead to concepts offering new performance potential. Design trends were directed toward increased speed, efficiency, productivity, and safety. Generally speaking, the research and development effort has been evolutionary in nature and, with the exception of the transition to supersonic flight, little has occurred since the origin of flight that has drastically changed the basic design fundamentals of aircraft. However, this does not preclude the possibility of dramatic changes in the future since the products of research are frequently unpredictable. Advances should be expected and sought in improved aerodynamics (reduced drag, enhanced lift, flow field exploitation); propulsion (improved engine cycles, multimode engines, alternate fuels, alternate power sources); structures (new materials, manufacturing techniques); all with a view toward increased efficiency and utility.

Analysis of growth trend changes for 51 temperate tree species using Korea national forest inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, M.; Moon, M.; Park, J.; Cho, S.; Kim, H. S.

2016-12-01

Individual tree growth rates can be affected by various factors such as species, soil fertility, stand development stage, disturbance, and climate etc. To estimate the effect of changes in tree growth rate on the structure and functionality of forest ecosystem in the future, we analyzed the change of species-specific growth trends using the fifth Korea national forest inventory data, which was collected from 2006 to 2010. The ring samples of average tree were collected from nationwide inventory plots and the total number of individual tree ring series was 69,128 covering 185 tree species. Among those, fifty one species with more than 100 tree ring series were used for our analysis. For growth-trend analysis, standardized regional curves of individual species growth were generated from three forest zone in South Korea; subarctic, cool temperate, warm temperate forest zone. Then individual tree ring series was indexed by dividing the growth of the tree by expected growth from standardized regional curves. Then the ratio of all tree ring series were aligned by year and the Spearman's correlation coefficient of each species was calculated. The results show that most of species had increasing growth rates as forests developed after Korean war. For the last thirty years, 67.3% of species including Quercus spp. and Zelkova serrata had positive growth trends, on the other hand, 11.5% of species including Pinus spp. showed negative growth trends probably due to the changes in successional stages in Korean forests and climate change. These trends also vary with climate zone and species. For examples, Pinus densiflora, which showed negative growth trend overall, had steep negative growth trends in boreal and temperate zone, whereas it showed no specific trend in sub-tropical climate zone. Our trend analysis on 51 temperate tree species growth will be essential to predict the temperate forests species change for the this century.

Low validity of Google Trends for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates.

PubMed

Tran, Ulrich S; Andel, Rita; Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Till, Benedikt; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Voracek, Martin

2017-01-01

Recent research suggests that search volumes of the most popular search engine worldwide, Google, provided via Google Trends, could be associated with national suicide rates in the USA, UK, and some Asian countries. However, search volumes have mostly been studied in an ad hoc fashion, without controls for spurious associations. This study evaluated the validity and utility of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of suicide rates in the USA, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Suicide-related search terms were systematically collected and respective Google Trends search volumes evaluated for availability. Time spans covered 2004 to 2010 (USA, Switzerland) and 2004 to 2012 (Germany, Austria). Temporal associations of search volumes and suicide rates were investigated with time-series analyses that rigorously controlled for spurious associations. The number and reliability of analyzable search volume data increased with country size. Search volumes showed various temporal associations with suicide rates. However, associations differed both across and within countries and mostly followed no discernable patterns. The total number of significant associations roughly matched the number of expected Type I errors. These results suggest that the validity of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates is low. The utility and validity of search volumes for the forecasting of suicide rates depend on two key assumptions ("the population that conducts searches consists mostly of individuals with suicidal ideation", "suicide-related search behavior is strongly linked with suicidal behavior"). We discuss strands of evidence that these two assumptions are likely not met. Implications for future research with Google Trends in the context of suicide research are also discussed.

Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to decrease future risks. Preliminary results show that the urban extent in Indonesia is projected to increase within 211 to 351% over the period 2000-2030 (5 and 95 percentile). Mainly driven by this rapid urbanization, potential flood losses in Indonesia increase rapidly and are primarily concentrated on the island of Java. The results reveal the large risk-reducing potential of adaptation measures. Since much of the urban development between 2000 and 2030 takes place in flood-prone areas, strategic urban planning (i.e. building in safe areas) may significantly reduce the urban population and infrastructure exposed to flooding. We conclude that a probabilistic risk approach in future flood risk assessment is vital; the drivers behind risk trends (exposure, hazard, vulnerability) should be understood to develop robust and efficient adaptation pathways.

No evidence for consistent long-term growth stimulation of 13 tropical tree species: results from tree-ring analysis.

PubMed

Groenendijk, Peter; van der Sleen, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Bongers, Frans; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-10-01

The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate-vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO2 -fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest-stand level, but insights into species-specific growth changes - that ultimately determine community-level responses - are lacking. Here, we analyse species-specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree-ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size-class isolation) growth-trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8-10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large-scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Widening Health Inequalities Among U.S. Military Retirees Since 1974

PubMed Central

Edwards, Dr Ryan

2008-01-01

I explore trends in mortality among U.S. military retirees using a new dataset of payroll records that include pay grade. Trends in mortality by pay grade reveal that health inequalities steadily widened between 1974 and 2004. Additive differentials in mortality rates remained stable, but since mortality declined exponentially, by a factor of about one third, proportional differentials in mortality and thus additive differentials in life expectancy have widened. The advantage in life expectancy enjoyed by retired officers grew roughly from 3 to 4 years. The sources of these trends remain unclear and are beyond the ability of the data to inform, but the results bear implications for trends in inequality and for policy. PMID:18708275

Sustainable sheep production and consumer preference trends: compatibilities, contradictions, and unresolved dilemmas.

PubMed

Montossi, F; Font-i-Furnols, M; del Campo, M; San Julián, R; Brito, G; Sañudo, C

2013-12-01

There are increasing concerns of society towards the consumption of animal products which have been produced and transformed in a sustainable manner. This trend influences consumer purchasing decision making, particularly in developed countries. On the other hand, in the next years, the pressure to increase the volume and efficiency of meat production will be much higher to cope with the expected unsatisfied demand. At least in part, current and future technologies could contribute to solve this challenge. However, the use of some of these innovations could have a negative effect on consumer preferences. There is no consensus in our society about this dilemma. The objective of this paper is to review the scientific evidence related to these topics and to analyze and discuss the effect of some of the extrinsic and intrinsic factors linked with the sheep industry which could affect the acceptability of lamb meat by consumers. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Commercial Absorption Heat Pump Water Heater: Beta Prototype Evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geoghegan, Patrick; Ally, Moonis; Sharma, Vishaldeep

2016-10-14

The Beta version of the Commercial Absorption Heat Pump (CAHP) water heater was evaluated in the environmental chambers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Ambient air conditions ranged from 17 to 75 oF and inlet water temperatures ranged from 100 to 120oF in order to capture trends in performance. The unit was operated under full fire (100%) and partial fire (55%). The unit was found to perform at 90% of the project goal at the design conditions of 47oF ambient and 100oF water temperatures. The trends across the full range of environmental conditions were as expected for ambient air temperatures abovemore » 32oF. Below this temperature and for the full fire condition, frost accumulated on the evaporator coil. In future work a defrost strategy will be enabled, the unit will be thoroughly cleaned of an oil contamination and the rectifier will be reconfigured in order to meet the design goals and have a field test unit ready in early 2017.« less

Biosensors in the small scale: methods and technology trends.

PubMed

Senveli, Sukru U; Tigli, Onur

2013-03-01

This study presents a review on biosensors with an emphasis on recent developments in the field. A brief history accompanied by a detailed description of the biosensor concepts is followed by rising trends observed in contemporary micro- and nanoscale biosensors. Performance metrics to quantify and compare different detection mechanisms are presented. A comprehensive analysis on various types and subtypes of biosensors are given. The fields of interest within the scope of this review are label-free electrical, mechanical and optical biosensors as well as other emerging and popular technologies. Especially, the latter half of the last decade is reviewed for the types, methods and results of the most prominently researched detection mechanisms. Tables are provided for comparison of various competing technologies in the literature. The conclusion part summarises the noteworthy advantages and disadvantages of all biosensors reviewed in this study. Furthermore, future directions that the micro- and nanoscale biosensing technologies are expected to take are provided along with the immediate outlook.

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shehabi, Arman; Smith, Sarah; Sartor, Dale

This report estimates historical data center electricity consumption back to 2000, relying on previous studies and historical shipment data, and forecasts consumption out to 2020 based on new trends and the most recent data available. Figure ES-1 provides an estimate of total U.S. data center electricity use (servers, storage, network equipment, and infrastructure) from 2000-2020. In 2014, data centers in the U.S. consumed an estimated 70 billion kWh, representing about 1.8% of total U.S. electricity consumption. Current study results show data center electricity consumption increased by about 4% from 2010-2014, a large shift from the 24% percent increase estimated frommore » 2005-2010 and the nearly 90% increase estimated from 2000-2005. Energy use is expected to continue slightly increasing in the near future, increasing 4% from 2014-2020, the same rate as the past five years. Based on current trend estimates, U.S. data centers are projected to consume approximately 73 billion kWh in 2020.« less

Financial aspects and the future of the pharmaceutical industry in the United States of america.

PubMed

Karamehic, Jasenko; Ridic, Ognjen; Ridic, Goran; Jukic, Tomislav; Coric, Jozo; Subasic, Djemo; Panjeta, Mirsad; Saban, Aida; Zunic, Lejla; Masic, Izet

2013-12-01

The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as "companies engaged in researching, developing, manufacturing and marketing of medicines and biological for human or veterinary use". Besides its main role in improving human health, the US pharmaceutical industry represents one of the most critical, key decision makers' lobbying prone and competitive sectors in the economy. The cost in the environment of very limited government price regulation remains one of the major problems fuelling aggregate health care cost inflation. Pharmaceuticals have created huge benefits for public health and economic productivity by the means of saving lives, increasing life expectancy, reducing illness related suffering, preventing surgeries and decreasing hospital stays. The goal of this review paper is to show the present conditions and future trends of the pharmaceutical industry in the U.S. THIS PAPER REPRESENTS A THOROUGH LITERATURE REVIEW OF THE MULTIFACETED SOURCES INCLUDING: studies, books, peer reviewed journals, U.S. government sources (i.e. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, etc.). In the thirty years pharmaceutical companies have consistently developed and launched new medicines, bringing hope to sick or - at risk patients. They also usually provide above the average financial returns for its shareholders. U.S. pharmaceutical companies had as their goal to discover blockbuster drugs. Blockbuster drugs are generally defined as drugs that solve medical problems common to hundreds of millions of people and, at the same time generate large sales increases and profits for the pharmaceutical companies. The main approach of these companies includes huge investments in research and development (R&D), innovation, marketing and sales. The trend analysis shows that for the most part the era of blockbuster drugs is nearing an end. Numerous blockbuster drugs will be coming off patent in the next few years, opening the way to generics and eliminating a major source of the industry's profits. Still, there is plenty of room for improvement in the medications people take while there is no shortage of human suffering to alleviate. It is doubtful whether big pharmaceutical firms will be able to pursue these goals within the old model of developing exclusive new drugs that can be sold further in the future. In the past, medicines for the ailments that were never before addressed, like anti-cholesterol or anti-depression drugs were developed. Currently, and in the future, it is expected that only blockbuster modifications will be developed. This phenomenon is expected to create market saturation, which will significantly reduce profits. The business model that drove the major drug makers' success is not working anymore. Pharmaceutical companies must create new ways and to bring new ideas. The survivors will be those that market strategies supported by innovative approaches and winning capabilities.

Increase in Total Joint Arthroplasty Projected from 2014 to 2046 in Australia: A Conservative Local Model With International Implications.

PubMed

Inacio, Maria C S; Graves, Stephen E; Pratt, Nicole L; Roughead, Elizabeth E; Nemes, Szilard

2017-08-01

The incidence of joint arthroplasty is increasing worldwide. International estimates of future demand for joint arthroplasty have used models that propose either an exponential future increase, despite obvious system constraints, or static increases, which do not account for past trends. Country-specific projection estimates that address limitations of past projections are necessary. In Australia, a high-income country with the 7th highest incidence of TKA and 15th highest incidence of THA of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, the volume of TKAs and THAs increased 198% between 1994 and 2014. To determine the projected incidence and volume of primary TKAs and THAs from 2014 to 2046 in the Australian population older than 40 years. Australian State and Territory Health Department data were used to identify TKAs and THAs performed between 1994 and 1995 and 2013 and 2014. The Australian Bureau of Statistics was the source of the population estimates for the same periods and population-projected estimates until 2046. The incidence rate (IR), 95% CI, and prediction interval (PI) of TKAs and THAs per 100,000 Australian citizens older than 40 years were calculated. Future IRs were estimated using a logistic model, and volume was calculated from projected IR and population. The logistic growth model assumes the existence of an upper limit of the TKA and THA incidences and a growth rate directly related to this incidence. At the beginning, when the observed incidence is much lower than the asymptote, the increase is exponential, but it decreases as it approaches the upper limit. A 66% increase in the IR of primary THAs between 2013 and 2046 is projected for Australia (2013: IR = 307 per 100,000, [95% CI, 262-329 per 100,000] compared with 2046: IR= 510 per 100,000, [95% PI, 98-567 per 100,000]), which translates to a 219% increase in the volume during this period. For TKAs the IR is expected to increase by 26% by 2046 (IR = 575 per 100,000; 95% PI, 402-717 per 100,000) compared with 2013 (IR = 437 per 100,000; 95% CI, 397-479 per 100,000) and the volume to increase by 142%. A large increase in the volume of arthroplasties is expected using a conservative projection model that accounts for past surgical trends and future population changes in Australia. These findings have international implications, as they show that using country- specific, conservative projection approaches, a substantial increase in the number of these procedures is expected. This increase in joint arthroplasty volume will require appropriate workforce planning, resource allocation, and budget planning so that demand can be met. Level II, economic and decision analysis.

A forecasting study on Chinese television development (1986 to 2001).

PubMed

Sun, L

1988-01-01

Given its widespread availability and impact on social values, television is expected to play an important role in China's modernization drive. Necessary to this process is a detailed analysis of the framework in which the technical aspects of television's development are related to political, economic, telecommunications, and social factors. To facilitate this analysis, a Delphi survey was conducted in 1986 as was a cross-impact analysis assisted by computer modelling. Entitled "Future Development of Chinese Television, 1986-2001," the Delphi survey sought to provide decision makers with operationally meaningful assistance in the form of information and analysis. The responses from experts suggested that, if economic growth can be sustained over the next 5 years, telecommunications development will receive top priority in state planning. Cross-impact analysis helps to clarify and promote better understanding of the complex relationships among future events and trends. This analysis tended to confirm the hypothesis that a nongovernmental television station is unlikely to emerge before 1991. Crucial to the success of any television policy (such as cable television service or videotext systems) is legislative support. The appearance of a nongovernmental television station would have a considerable impact on the private sector in China and lead to competition in programming quality, attracting audiences, and further commercialization. While the future development of Chinese television is dependent on economic factors such as purchasing power and the quality of life, its development can thus also be expected to exert a strong influence on economic life.

Study of nonpoint source nutrient loading in the Patuxent River basin, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preston, S.D.

1997-01-01

Study of nonpoint-source (NPS) nutrient loading in Maryland has focused on the Patuxent watershed because of its importance and representativeness of conditions in the State. Evaluation of NPS nutrient loading has been comprehensive and has included long-term monitoring, detailed watershed modeling, and synoptic sampling studies. A large amount of information has been compiled for the watershed and that information is being used to identify primary controls and efficient management strategies for NPS nutrient loading. Results of the Patuxent NPS study have identified spatial trends in water quality that appear to be related to basin charcteristics such as land use, physiography, andgeology. Evaluation of the data compiled by the study components is continuing and is expected to provide more detailed assessments of the reasons for spatial trends. In particular, ongoing evaluation of the watershed model output is expected to provide detailed information on the relative importance of nutrient sources and transport pathways across the entire watershed. Planned future directions of NPS evaluation in the State of Maryland include continued study of water quality in the Patuxent watershed and a shift in emphasis to a statewide approach. Eventually, the statewide approach will become the primary approach usedby the State to evaluate NPS loading. The information gained in the Patuxent study and the tools developed will represent valuable assets indeveloping the statewide NPS assessment program.

Lung cancer epidemiology: contemporary and future challenges worldwide.

PubMed

Didkowska, Joanna; Wojciechowska, Urszula; Mańczuk, Marta; Łobaszewski, Jakub

2016-04-01

Over the last century, lung cancer from the rarest of diseases became the biggest cancer killer of men worldwide and in some parts of the world also of women (North America, East Asia, Northern Europe, Australia and New Zealand). In 2012 over 1.6 million of people died due to lung cancer. The cause-effect relationship between tobacco smoking and lung cancer occurrence has been proven in many studies, both ecological and clinical. In global perspective one can see the increasing tobacco consumption trend followed by ascending trends of lung cancer mortality, especially in developing countries. In some more developed countries, where the tobacco epidemics was on the rise since the beginning of the 20th century and peaked in its mid, in male population lung cancer incidence trend reversed or leveled off. Despite predicted further decline of incidence rates, the absolute number of deaths will continue to grow in these countries. In the remaining parts of the world the tobacco epidemics is still evolving what brings rapid increase of the number of new lung cancer cases and deaths. Number of lung cancer deaths worldwide is expected to grow up to 3 million until 2035. The figures will double both in men (from 1.1 million in 2012 to 2.1 million in 2035) and women (from 0.5 million in 2012 to 0.9 million in 2035) and the two-fold difference between sexes will persist. The most rapid increase is expected in Africa region (AFRO) and East Mediterranean region (EMRO). The increase of the absolute number of lung cancer deaths in more developed countries is caused mostly by population aging and in less developed countries predominantly by the evolving tobacco epidemic.

Future evolution of a tidal inlet due to changes in wave climate, Sea level and lagoon morphology (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruneau, Nicolas; Fortunato, André B.; Dodet, Guillaume; Freire, Paula; Oliveira, Anabela; Bertin, Xavier

2011-11-01

Tidal inlets are extremely dynamic, as a result of an often delicate balance between the effects of tides, waves and other forcings. Since the morphology of these inlets can affect navigation, water quality and ecosystem dynamics, there is a clear need to anticipate their evolution in order to promote adequate management decisions. Over decadal time scales, the position and size of tidal inlets are expected to evolve with the conditions that affect them, for instance as a result of climate change. A process-based morphodynamic modeling system is validated and used to analyze the effects of sea level rise, an expected shift in the wave direction and the reduction of the upper lagoon surface area by sedimentation on a small tidal inlet (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal). A new approach to define yearly wave regimes is first developed, which includes a seasonal behavior, random inter-annual variability and the possibility to extrapolate trends. Once validated, this approach is used to produce yearly time series of wave spectra for the present and for the end of the 21st century, considering the local rotation trends computed using hindcast results for the past 57 years. Predictions of the mean sea level for 2100 are based on previous studies, while the bathymetry of the upper lagoon for the same year is obtained by extrapolation of past trends. Results show, and data confirm, that the Óbidos lagoon inlet has three stable configurations, largely determined by the inter-annual variations in the wave characteristics. Both sea level rise and the reduction of the lagoon surface area will promote the accretion of the inlet. In contrast, the predicted rotation of the wave regime, within foreseeable limits, will have a negligible impact on the inlet morphology.

Energy harvesting for the implantable biomedical devices: issues and challenges.

PubMed

Hannan, Mahammad A; Mutashar, Saad; Samad, Salina A; Hussain, Aini

2014-06-20

The development of implanted devices is essential because of their direct effect on the lives and safety of humanity. This paper presents the current issues and challenges related to all methods used to harvest energy for implantable biomedical devices. The advantages, disadvantages, and future trends of each method are discussed. The concept of harvesting energy from environmental sources and human body motion for implantable devices has gained a new relevance. In this review, the harvesting kinetic, electromagnetic, thermal and infrared radiant energies are discussed. Current issues and challenges related to the typical applications of these methods for energy harvesting are illustrated. Suggestions and discussion of the progress of research on implantable devices are also provided. This review is expected to increase research efforts to develop the battery-less implantable devices with reduced over hole size, low power, high efficiency, high data rate, and improved reliability and feasibility. Based on current literature, we believe that the inductive coupling link is the suitable method to be used to power the battery-less devices. Therefore, in this study, the power efficiency of the inductive coupling method is validated by MATLAB based on suggested values. By further researching and improvements, in the future the implantable and portable medical devices are expected to be free of batteries.

Adolescent adaptation before, during, and in the aftermath of the Great Recession in the United States

PubMed Central

Johnson, Monica Kirkpatrick; Staff, Jeremy; Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.

2017-01-01

This study examines the impact of the “Great Recession” as well as previous recessions in 1991 and 2001 on 8th and 10th graders in the U.S, using annual nationally representative data from the Monitoring the Future study. Historical changes in youth adjustment (self-esteem, depressed mood, risk taking, aggression, and property crime), school achievement (grade point average, time spent on homework, and educational expectations), and structured and unstructured activities (volunteering, employment, sports, and evenings out for fun) were examined between 1991 and 2014. Overall, there were only slight changes in mean levels of adjustment, achievement, and most youth activities. However, the percentage of youth working during the school year did decline during the Great Recession. Several longer term trends were also evident, though not directly tied to recessions. These include an increase in GPA, a decrease in time spent on homework, rising educational expectations, and more time spent volunteering. Future work should assess how the shift to unpaid work activities (e.g., volunteering and internships) among youth is impacting the transition from school to work in the contemporary economy, and whether the Great Recession had deleterious impacts for younger children or among youth whose parents lost work or had their homes foreclosed. PMID:27709614

At, with and beyond risk: expectations of living with the possibility of future dementia.

PubMed

Milne, Richard; Diaz, Ana; Badger, Shirlene; Bunnik, Eline; Fauria, Karine; Wells, Katie

2018-04-16

Biomedical research aimed at the development of therapies for chronic and late-onset conditions increasingly concentrates on the early treatment of symptom-less disease. This broad trend is evidenced in prominent shifts in contemporary dementia research. Revised diagnostic criteria and new approaches to clinical trials propose a focus on earlier stages of disease and prompt concerns about the implications of communicating test results associated with the risk of developing dementia when no effective treatments are available. This article examines expectations of the implications of learning test results related to dementia risk, based on focus group research conducted in the UK and Spain. It points to the extended social and temporal aspects of the dementia risk experience. Three key dimensions of this risk experience are elaborated: living 'at risk', represented in efforts to reduce risk and plan for the future; 'with risk', through vigilance towards cognitive health and earlier or prolonged contact with healthcare services; and finally, 'beyond risk' through a cessation of the self in its current social, legal and financial form. A virtual abstract of this paper can be viewed at: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_979cmCmR9rLrKuD7z0ycA. © 2018 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

Phytoremediation: State-of-the-art and a key role for the plant microbiome in future trends and research prospects.

PubMed

Thijs, Sofie; Sillen, Wouter; Weyens, Nele; Vangronsveld, Jaco

2017-01-02

Phytoremediation is increasingly adopted as a more sustainable approach for soil remediation. However, significant advances in efficiency are still necessary to attain higher levels of environmental and economic sustainability. Current interventions do not always give the expected outcomes in field settings due to an incomplete understanding of the multicomponent biological interactions. New advances in -omics are gradually implemented for studying microbial communities of polluted land in situ. This opens new perspectives for the discovery of biodegradative strains and provides us new ways of interfering with microbial communities to enhance bioremediation rates. This review presents retrospectives and future perspectives for plant microbiome studies relevant to phytoremediation, as well as some knowledge gaps in this promising research field. The implementation of phytoremediation in soil clean-up management systems is discussed, and an overview of the promoting factors that determine the growth of the phytoremediation market is given. Continuous growth is expected since elimination of contaminants from the environment is demanded. The evolution of scientific thought from a reductionist view to a more holistic approach will boost phytoremediation as an efficient and reliable phytotechnology. It is anticipated that phytoremediation will prove the most promising for organic contaminant degradation and bioenergy crop production on marginal land.

Adolescent adaptation before, during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession in the USA.

PubMed

Johnson, Monica Kirkpatrick; Staff, Jeremy; Patrick, Megan E; Schulenberg, John E

2017-02-01

This study examines the impact of the "Great Recession" (from December 2007 to June 2009) on 8th and 10th graders in the USA, using annual nationally representative data from the Monitoring the Future study. Historical changes in youth adjustment (self-esteem, depressed mood, risk taking, aggression and property crime), school achievement (grade point average [GPA], time spent on homework and educational expectations) and structured and unstructured activities (volunteering, employment, sports and evenings out for fun) were examined between 1991 and 2014. Overall, there were only slight changes in mean levels of adjustment, achievement and most youth activities. However, the percentage of youth working during the school year did decline during the Great Recession. Several longer-term trends were also evident, though not directly tied to the Great Recession. These include an increase in GPA, a decrease in time spent on homework, rising educational expectations and more time spent volunteering. Future work should assess how the shift to unpaid work activities (e.g. volunteering and internships) among youth is impacting the transition from school to work in the contemporary economy, and whether the Great Recession had deleterious impacts for younger children or among youth whose parents lost work or had their homes foreclosed. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

Energy harvesting for the implantable biomedical devices: issues and challenges

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The development of implanted devices is essential because of their direct effect on the lives and safety of humanity. This paper presents the current issues and challenges related to all methods used to harvest energy for implantable biomedical devices. The advantages, disadvantages, and future trends of each method are discussed. The concept of harvesting energy from environmental sources and human body motion for implantable devices has gained a new relevance. In this review, the harvesting kinetic, electromagnetic, thermal and infrared radiant energies are discussed. Current issues and challenges related to the typical applications of these methods for energy harvesting are illustrated. Suggestions and discussion of the progress of research on implantable devices are also provided. This review is expected to increase research efforts to develop the battery-less implantable devices with reduced over hole size, low power, high efficiency, high data rate, and improved reliability and feasibility. Based on current literature, we believe that the inductive coupling link is the suitable method to be used to power the battery-less devices. Therefore, in this study, the power efficiency of the inductive coupling method is validated by MATLAB based on suggested values. By further researching and improvements, in the future the implantable and portable medical devices are expected to be free of batteries. PMID:24950601

2014 Wind Technologies Market Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Barbose, Galen

Wind power capacity additions in the United States rebounded in 2014, and continued growth through 2016 is anticipated. Recent and projected near-term growth is supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—which is available for projects that began construction by the end of 2014. Wind additions are also being driven by recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies, which have resulted in the lowest power sales prices ever seen in the U.S. wind sector. Growing corporate demand for wind energy and state-level policies play important roles as well. Expectations for continued technological advancementsmore » and cost reductions may further boost future growth. At the same time, the prospects for growth beyond 2016 are uncertain. The PTC has expired, and its renewal remains in question. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on growth expectations. These trends, in combination with increasingly global supply chains, have limited the growth of domestic manufacturing of wind equipment. What they mean for wind power additions through the end of the decade and beyond will be dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions.« less

The future of copper in China--A perspective based on analysis of copper flows and stocks.

PubMed

Zhang, Ling; Cai, Zhijian; Yang, Jiameng; Yuan, Zengwei; Chen, Yan

2015-12-01

This study attempts to speculate on the future of copper metabolism in China based on dynamic substance flow analysis. Based on tremendous growth of copper consumption over the past 63 years, China will depict a substantially increasing trend of copper in-use stocks for the next 30 years. The highest peak will be possibly achieved in 2050, with the maximum ranging between 163 Mt and 171 Mt. After that, total stocks are expected to slowly decline 147-154 Mt by the year 2080. Owing to the increasing demand of in-use stocks, China will continue to have a profound impact on global copper consumption with its high import dependence until around 2020, and the peak demand for imported copper are expected to approach 5.5 Mt/year. Thereafter, old scrap generated by domestic society will occupy an increasingly important role in copper supply. In around 2060, approximately 80% of copper resources could come from domestic recycling of old scrap, implying a major shift from primary production to secondary production. With regard to the effect of lifetime distribution uncertainties in different end-use sectors of copper stocks on the predict results, uncertainty evaluation was performed and found the model was relatively robust to these changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Core Noise - Increasing Importance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hultgren, Lennart S.

2011-01-01

This presentation is a technical summary of and outlook for NASA-internal and NASA-sponsored external research on core (combustor and turbine) noise funded by the Fundamental Aeronautics Program Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) Project. Sections of the presentation cover: the SFW system-level noise metrics for the 2015, 2020, and 2025 timeframes; turbofan design trends and their aeroacoustic implications; the emerging importance of core noise and its relevance to the SFW Reduced-Perceived-Noise Technical Challenge; and the current research activities in the core-noise area, with additional details given about the development of a high-fidelity combustor-noise prediction capability as well as activities supporting the development of improved reduced-order, physics-based models for combustor-noise prediction. The need for benchmark data for validation of high-fidelity and modeling work and the value of a potential future diagnostic facility for testing of core-noise-reduction concepts are indicated. The NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program has the principal objective of overcoming today's national challenges in air transportation. The SFW Reduced-Perceived-Noise Technical Challenge aims to develop concepts and technologies to dramatically reduce the perceived aircraft noise outside of airport boundaries. This reduction of aircraft noise is critical to enabling the anticipated large increase in future air traffic. Noise generated in the jet engine core, by sources such as the compressor, combustor, and turbine, can be a significant contribution to the overall noise signature at low-power conditions, typical of approach flight. At high engine power during takeoff, jet and fan noise have traditionally dominated over core noise. However, current design trends and expected technological advances in engine-cycle design as well as noise-reduction methods are likely to reduce non-core noise even at engine-power points higher than approach. In addition, future low-emission combustor designs could increase the combustion-noise component. The trend towards high-power-density cores also means that the noise generated in the low-pressure turbine will likely increase. Consequently, the combined result from these emerging changes will be to elevate the overall importance of turbomachinery core noise, which will need to be addressed in order to meet future noise goals.

Losing ground--Swedish life expectancy in a comparative perspective.

PubMed

Drefahl, Sven; Ahlbom, Anders; Modig, Karin

2014-01-01

In the beginning of the 1970s, Sweden was the country where both women and men enjoyed the world's longest life expectancy. While life expectancy continues to be high and increasing, Sweden has been losing ground in relation to other leading countries. We look at life expectancy over the years 1970-2008 for men and women. To assess the relative contributions of age, causes of death, and smoking we decompose differences in life expectancy between Sweden and two leading countries, Japan and France. This study is the first to use this decomposition method to observe how smoking related deaths contribute to life expectancy differences between countries. Sweden has maintained very low mortality at young and working ages for both men and women compared to France and Japan. However, mortality at ages above 65 has become considerably higher in Sweden than in the other leading countries because the decrease has been faster in those countries. Different trends for circulatory diseases were the largest contributor to this development in both sexes but for women also cancer played a role. Mortality from neoplasms has been considerably low for Swedish men. Smoking attributable mortality plays a modest role for women, whereas it is substantially lower in Swedish men than in French and Japanese men. Sweden is losing ground in relation to other leading countries with respect to life expectancy because mortality at high ages improves more slowly than in the leading countries, especially due to trends in cardiovascular disease mortality. Trends in smoking rates may provide a partial explanation for the trends in women; however, it is not possible to isolate one single explanatory factor for why Sweden is losing ground.

Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge

2015-06-01

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight changes.

National spending on health by source for 184 countries between 2013 and 2040.

PubMed

Dieleman, Joseph L; Templin, Tara; Sadat, Nafis; Reidy, Patrick; Chapin, Abigail; Foreman, Kyle; Haakenstad, Annie; Evans, Tim; Murray, Christopher J L; Kurowski, Christoph

2016-06-18

A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at similar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected. We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks. Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42-22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9-3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4-4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3-3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6-3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending. Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Seven Future Trends in the Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satterlee, Brian; Craig, Will

In the future, seven trends--already firmly established--will become dominant in the world of work. Those trends are as follows: (1) middle management positions will continue to be cut; (2) project teams will be assembled for a single purpose; (3) more women will have executive leadership roles; (4) organizations will continue to increase their…

Toward a More Equitable Future: The Trends and Challenges Facing America's Latino Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foxen, Patricia; Mather, Mark

2016-01-01

Rapid demographic change is transforming the landscape of America in exciting and challenging ways. This report, an update of the 2010 publication "America's Future: Latino Child Well-Being in Numbers and Trends," provides a comprehensive overview of national and state-level trends in the characteristics and well-being of Hispanic…

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

PubMed Central

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-01-01

Summary This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060. PMID:20737016

Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

2017-12-01

Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

2016-11-15

The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States--Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Knowles, N.; Cayan, D. R.

2015-12-01

Knowles et al. (J. Climate, 2006) documented long-term (1949-2004) trends in precipitation form, with a smaller fraction of precipitation falling, in recent decades, on days with reported snow compared to days when no snow was reported (and when precipitation was presumably rain). This precipitation-amount-corrected trend was found at three-quarters of 261 cooperative weather stations across the region. The trends correlated with corresponding trends towards warmer winter air temperatures at the weather stations involved. An update of those analyses through the more recent period indicates that the overall swing towards less precipitation fraction occurring on snowy days has continued through the intervening years, with 21st Century rain/snow fractions remaining significantly higher than historical norms at most stations. The same data have also been used to develop site-specific statistical relations between precipitation form (snowy-day precipitation vs purely rainy day) and air temperatures by logistical regressions at over 200 stations across the West, to determine whether the general temperature trends mentioned above have, in fact, been large enough to explain the trending precipitation forms. That is, were the warming trends detected across the West large enough to actually raise temperatures above the local snow-rain thresholds at most stations? The regression relations show that the temperature at which half of the wet days have been snowy historically varies, from station to station, across a range from -2ºC to +4ºC. Thus at some stations winter storm temperatures would have to rise above about -2ºC to markedly impact precipitation forms, while at other stations, temperature had to rise above +4ºC. Nonetheless, observed temperature trends since 1950 have been sufficient to explain the observed regional precipitation-form trends. The fitted precipitation form-temperature relations also provide a basis for estimating precipitation forms in hydrological models and in climate-change projections across the region, allowing—for example—more geographically informed projections of precipitation-form changes under future climates. On the whole, though, the expected relations between warming trends and precipitation-form trends found by Knowles et al. (2006) continue to hold.

About the Federal Energy Management Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richard Kidd

2009-04-23

Richard Kidd, Program Manager for the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), presents a discussion on FEMP direction and its future role, federal funding trends, future financing trends, and Earth Day observations.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2005-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socially disparate trends in lifespan variation: a trend study on income and mortality based on nationwide Danish register data.

PubMed

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2017-05-17

Social inequality trends in life expectancy are not informative as to changes in social disparity in the age-at-death distribution. The purpose of the study was to investigate social differentials in trends and patterns of adult mortality in Denmark. Register data on income and mortality from 1986 to 2014 were used to investigate trends in life expectancy, life disparity and the threshold age that separates 'premature' and 'late' deaths. Mortality compression was quantified and compared between income quartiles. Since 1986, male life expectancy increased by 4.2 years for the lowest income quartile and by 8.4 years for the highest income quartile. The clear compression of mortality apparent in the highest income quartile did not occur for the lowest income quartile. Premature and late deaths accounted both by 2.1 years of the increase in life expectancy in the lowest income quartile and by 6.0 and 2.4 years, respectively, in the highest income quartile. Life expectancy increased by 5.2 years among women in the lowest income quartile, 2.4 years due to premature deaths and 2.8 years due to late deaths. The gain in life expectancy among women in the highest income quartile of 5.6 years was distributed by 5.0 and 0.6 years due to premature and late deaths, respectively. The study demonstrates that the increasing social gap in mortality appears differently in the change of the age-at-death distribution. Thus, no compression of mortality was seen in the lowest income quartile. The results do not provide support for a uniformly extension of pension age for all. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Human resources in the 1980s.

PubMed

Mills, D Q

1979-01-01

As the decade of the 1970s closes, new trends in human resources will test the ingenuity of corporate planners to produce policies for the 1980s that will match changing corporate demands with changing employee expectations. The 1970s have produced much-publicized problems--for example, the introduction to the work force of larger numbers of minorities and women--that are not yet fully resolved and that can be expected to continue. But the 1980s will bring their own special challenges. Shifting populations (such as legal and illegal immigrants), the women's movement's demand for equal pay for work of comparable worth, and the push for civil liberties at the workplace are all factors that will dramatically change the business climate. With these factors in mind, the author examines the 1980s' business environment, takes a backward look at planning policies in the 1970s, and shows how the priorities of those policies will have to be reevaluated to meet the challenges of the future.

Pediatric robotic rehabilitation: Current knowledge and future trends in treating children with sensorimotor impairments.

PubMed

Michmizos, Konstantinos P; Krebs, Hermano Igo

2017-01-01

Robot-aided sensorimotor therapy imposes highly repetitive tasks that can translate to substantial improvement when patients remain cognitively engaged into the clinical procedure, a goal that most children find hard to pursue. Knowing that the child's brain is much more plastic than an adult's, it is reasonable to expect that the clinical gains observed in the adult population during the last two decades would be followed up by even greater gains in children. Nonetheless, and despite the multitude of adult studies, in children we are just getting started: There is scarcity of pediatric robotic rehabilitation devices that are currently available and the number of clinical studies that employ them is also very limited. We have recently developed the MIT's pedi-Anklebot, an adaptive habilitation robotic device that continuously motivates physically impaired children to do their best by tracking the child's performance and modifying their therapy accordingly. The robot's design is based on a multitude of studies we conducted focusing on the ankle sensorimotor control. In this paper, we briefly describe the device and the adaptive environment we built around the impaired children, present the initial clinical results and discuss how they could steer future trends in pediatric robotic therapy. The results support the potential for future interventions to account for the differences in the sensorimotor control of the targeted limbs and their functional use (rhythmic vs. discrete movements and mechanical impedance training) and explore how the new technological advancements such as the augmented reality would employ new knowledge from neuroscience.

Challenges for the New Century: Trends That Will Influence Kentucky's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith-Mello, Michal; Childress, Michael T.; Watts, Amy; Watkins, John F.

Trends that will influence Kentucky's future were examined along with policy options for responding to those trends. According to the analysis, the effects of the new economy on Kentucky has been mixed. Although many Kentuckians have benefited from the new economy, the state's least educated and poorest residents are falling further behind the…

Is Perruchet's dissociation between eyeblink conditioned responding and outcome expectancy evidence for two learning systems?

PubMed

Weidemann, Gabrielle; Tangen, Jason M; Lovibond, Peter F; Mitchell, Christopher J

2009-04-01

P. Perruchet (1985b) showed a double dissociation of conditioned responses (CRs) and expectancy for an airpuff unconditioned stimulus (US) in a 50% partial reinforcement schedule in human eyeblink conditioning. In the Perruchet effect, participants show an increase in CRs and a concurrent decrease in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of reinforced trials; conversely, participants show a decrease in CRs and a concurrent increase in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of nonreinforced trials. Three eyeblink conditioning experiments investigated whether the linear trend in eyeblink CRs in the Perruchet effect is a result of changes in associative strength of the conditioned stimulus (CS), US sensitization, or learning the precise timing of the US. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is not the result of US sensitization. Experiment 3 showed that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is present with both a fixed and a variable CS-US interval and so is not the result of learning the precise timing of the US. The results are difficult to reconcile with a single learning process model of associative learning in which expectancy mediates CRs. Copyright (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Low validity of Google Trends for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates

PubMed Central

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Till, Benedikt; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Voracek, Martin

2017-01-01

Recent research suggests that search volumes of the most popular search engine worldwide, Google, provided via Google Trends, could be associated with national suicide rates in the USA, UK, and some Asian countries. However, search volumes have mostly been studied in an ad hoc fashion, without controls for spurious associations. This study evaluated the validity and utility of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of suicide rates in the USA, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Suicide-related search terms were systematically collected and respective Google Trends search volumes evaluated for availability. Time spans covered 2004 to 2010 (USA, Switzerland) and 2004 to 2012 (Germany, Austria). Temporal associations of search volumes and suicide rates were investigated with time-series analyses that rigorously controlled for spurious associations. The number and reliability of analyzable search volume data increased with country size. Search volumes showed various temporal associations with suicide rates. However, associations differed both across and within countries and mostly followed no discernable patterns. The total number of significant associations roughly matched the number of expected Type I errors. These results suggest that the validity of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates is low. The utility and validity of search volumes for the forecasting of suicide rates depend on two key assumptions (“the population that conducts searches consists mostly of individuals with suicidal ideation”, “suicide-related search behavior is strongly linked with suicidal behavior”). We discuss strands of evidence that these two assumptions are likely not met. Implications for future research with Google Trends in the context of suicide research are also discussed. PMID:28813490

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by individual medical centers to provide advanced warning of future influenza cases.

Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

2015-03-01

The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Trends in record-breaking temperatures for the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, Clinton M.; Derry, Logan E.

2012-08-01

In an unchanging climate, record-breaking temperatures are expected to decrease in frequency over time, as established records become increasingly more difficult to surpass. This inherent trend in the number of record-breaking events confounds the interpretation of actual trends in the presence of any underlying climate change. Here, a simple technique to remove the inherent trend is introduced so that any remaining trend can be examined separately for evidence of a climate change. As this technique does not use the standard definition of a broken record, our records* are differentiated by an asterisk. Results for the period 1961-2010 indicate that the number of record* low daily minimum temperatures has been significantly and steadily decreasing nearly everywhere across the United States while the number of record* high daily minimum temperatures has been predominantly increasing. Trends in record* low and record* high daily maximum temperatures are generally weaker and more spatially mixed in sign. These results are consistent with other studies examining changes expected in a warming climate.

Health Inequalities: Trends, Progress, and Policy

PubMed Central

Bleich, Sara N.; Jarlenski, Marian P.; Bell, Caryn N.; LaVeist, Thomas A.

2013-01-01

Health inequalities, which have been well documented for decades, have more recently become policy targets in developed countries. This review describes time trends in health inequalities (by sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status), commitments to reduce health inequalities, and progress made to eliminate health inequalities in the United States, United Kingdom, and other OECD countries. Time-trend data in the United States indicate a narrowing of the gap between the best- and worst-off groups in some health indicators, such as life expectancy, but a widening of the gap in others, such as diabetes prevalence. Similarly, time-trend data in the United Kingdom indicate a narrowing of the gap between the best- and worst-off groups in some indicators, such as hypertension prevalence, whereas the gap between social classes has increased for life expectancy. More research and better methods are needed to measure precisely the relationships between stated policy goals and observed trends in health inequalities. PMID:22224876

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

Planning for the upgrade and/or replacement of Deep Space Network (DSN) assets that typically operate for forty or more years necessitates understanding potential customer needs as far into the future as possible. This paper describes the methodology Deep Space Network (DSN) planners use to develop this understanding, some key future mission trends that have emerged from application of this methodology, and the implications of the trends for the DSN's future evolution. For NASA's current plans out to 2030, these trends suggest the need to accommodate: three times as many communication links, downlink rates two orders of magnitude greater than today's, uplink rates some four orders of magnitude greater, and end-to-end link difficulties two-to-three orders of magnitude greater. To meet these challenges, both DSN capacity and capability will need to increase.

Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions.

PubMed

Beer, W Nicholas; Anderson, James J

2013-08-01

We projected effects of mid-21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature-dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid-21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm-region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid-21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year-to-year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Alternative Scenarios of the American Future: 1980-2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glover, Robert

This report is a summary of the findings of the societal trends survey completed at the National Forum on Learning and The American Future, which focused on factors influencing the future of adult learning. The survey questionnaire and results consist of 120 societal trend statements organized into sixteen different content areas: demography;…

Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation.

PubMed

Eccel, Emanuele; Rea, Roberto; Caffarra, Amelia; Crisci, Alfonso

2009-05-01

In the context of global warming, the general trend towards earlier flowering dates of many temperate tree species is likely to result in an increased risk of damage from exposure to frost. To test this hypothesis, a phenological model of apple flowering was applied to a temperature series from two locations in an important area for apple production in Europe (Trentino, Italy). Two simulated 50-year climatic projections (A2 and B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--Special Report on Emission Scenarios) from the HadCM3 general circulation model were statistically downscaled to the two sites. Hourly temperature records over a 40-year period were used as the reference for past climate. In the phenological model, the heat requirement (degree hours) for flowering was parameterized using two approaches; static (constant over time) and dynamic (climate dependent). Parameterisation took into account the trees' adaptation to changing temperatures based on either past instrumental records or the downscaled outputs from the climatic simulations. Flowering dates for the past 40 years and simulated flowering dates for the next 50 years were used in the model. A significant trend towards earlier flowering was clearly detected in the past. This negative trend was also apparent in the simulated data. However, the significance was less apparent when the "dynamic" setting for the degree hours requirement was used in the model. The number of frost episodes and flowering dates, on an annual basis, were graphed to assess the risk of spring frost. Risk analysis confirmed a lower risk of exposure to frost at present than in the past, and probably either constant or a slightly lower risk in future, especially given that physiological processes are expected to acclimate to higher temperatures.

Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Contract Training: Progress and Policy Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deegan, William L.; Drisko, Ronald

1985-01-01

Provides results of a national survey of community college contract training programs, including data on the extent of the colleges' involvement, centralization/decentralization of contract training, problems and benefits, and future trends. Discusses future policy trends. (HB)

Positron Computed Tomography: Current State, Clinical Results and Future Trends

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Schelbert, H. R.; Phelps, M. E.; Kuhl, D. E.

1980-09-01

An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

2011-12-01

Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little open space remains to accommodate the expected population growth. Redevelopment conserved more naturally vegetated open space. The redevelopment scenario also permits the lowest increase in energy demand because buildings taken out in the process are reconfigured to higher levels of energy efficiency. However, redevelopment requires substantial increases in residential densities to confine the spatial footprint of the expected future urban growth. These three urban growth scenario footprints differ in their impact to natural vegetation and open space. To incorporate the influence of climate change on remaining natural ecosystems in this urbanizing landscape, we projected the stability of existing, mapped, vegetation types in the region under future climates by examining where projected ranges of the dominant plant species comprising each California Wildlife Habitat Relationship type will all remain together, and where they will begin to dis-associate due to biogeographic response to changing climate. This permits identification of stable and unstable zones of vegetation. The combination of climate stable, high conservation priority and likelihood of urban development provides a way to prioritize conservation land acquisitions.

Future trends in the health care economy.

PubMed

Kajander, J; Samuels, M

1996-01-01

Most articles on the future of health care are by professionals involved in the delivery of health care services. This article is unique in that trends are examined from the perspective of the public and purchasers of care. The authors focus on 12 trends that are or will be affecting the industry, and on the sometimes unintended consequences and new conflicts that may develop.

Connecting Snowmelt Runoff Timing Changes to Watershed Characteristics in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, I. T.; Peterson, D. H.

2008-12-01

Shifts in the timing of snowmelt runoff are an expected consequence of climatic changes and have been observed throughout western North America for the past several decades. While the snowmelt runoff has in general come earlier, the magnitude, and sometimes direction, of streamflow timing trends has varied throughout the region in a manner that is not explained by the differences in location or gauge elevation alone. The gauge-to-gauge differences in the observed streamflow timing trends, which have not been systematically explored, are investigated in this study by linking the hydrologic response of a stream to the physical characteristics of the watershed above the gauge. To this end, the very recent trends in streamflow timing measures (such as the timing of the start of the spring snowmelt pulse, the timing of the center of mass for flow, the annual flow, and the timing of the day when maximum flow occurs) for approximately 60 snowmelt-dominated gauges in California were analyzed in conjunction with a GIS-based data base of the watershed characteristics (such as elevation distribution, slope, aspect, and vegetation) through the 2008 runoff season. The improved knowledge of how a watershed has reacted to recent climatic changes can aid in the development of future adaptive strategies in managing water resources in California.

Management Choices in an Uncertain Future: Navigating Snow, Precipitation, and Temperature Projections in the Pacific Northwest U.S. to Assess Water Management Alternatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, C.

2014-12-01

Climate and hydrology models are regularly applied to assess potential changes in water resources and to inform adaptation decisions. An increasingly common question is, "What if we are wrong?" While climate models show substantial agreement on metrics such as pressure, temperature, and wind, they are notoriously uncertain in projecting precipitation change. The response to that uncertainty varies depending on the water management context and the nature of the uncertainty. In the southwestern U.S., large storage reservoirs (relative to annual supply) and general expectations of decreasing precipitation have guided extensive discussion on water management towards uncertainties in annual-scale water balances, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. In contrast, smaller reservoirs and little expectation for change in annual precipitation have focused discussions of Pacific Northwest water management toward shifts in runoff seasonality. The relative certainty of temperature impacts on snowpacks compared to the substantial uncertainty in precipitation has yielded a consistent narrative on earlier snowmelt. This narrative has been reinforced by a perception of essentially the same behavior in the historical record. This perception has led to calls in the political arena for more reservoir storage to replace snowpack storage for water supplies. Recent findings on differences in trends in precipitation at high versus low elevations, however, has recalled the uncertainty in precipitation futures and generated questions about alternative water management strategies. An important question with respect to snowpacks is whether the precipitation changes matter in the context of such substantial projections for temperature change. Here we apply an empirical snowpack model to analyze spatial differences in the uncertainty of snowpack responses to temperature and precipitation forcing across the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis reveals a strong geographic gradient in uncertainty of snowpack response to future climate, from the coastal regions, where precipitation uncertainty is relatively inconsequential for snowpack changes, to interior mountains where minor uncertainties in precipitation are on par with expected changes relative to temperature.

The stagnation of the Mexican male life expectancy in the first decade of the 21st century: the impact of homicides and diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; García-Guerrero, Víctor Manuel; Echarri-Cánovas, Carlos Javier

2015-01-01

In the first decade of the 21st century, the Mexican life expectancy changed from a long trend of increase to stagnation. These changes concur with an increase in deaths by homicides that the country experienced in that decade, and an obesity epidemic that had developed over the last decades of the 20th century. We quantify the impact of causes of death on life expectancy from 2000 to 2010. Two approaches to analyse causes of death are used: the number of life years lost due to each of the causes of death in a given year, and cause-decomposition techniques for comparisons of life expectancy from 2000 to 2010. The apparent stagnation in life expectancy is the result of an increase in deaths by homicides and diabetes mellitus on the one hand, and the positive improvements observed in other causes of death on the other. The negative impact of homicides is particularly observed for ages 15 and 50, and for that of diabetes mellitus at ages above 45 years. There is little basis for optimism regarding the future scenarios of the health of the Mexican population based on the first decade of the 21st century. Male life expectancy would have increased by 2 years if deaths by homicides and diabetes mellitus had been avoided. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; Pearce, Tristan

2010-01-01

This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

World Trends and Alternative Futures. Open Grants Papers No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McHale, John; Cordell, Magda

We are now at a stage in human global development in which the continuous review and assessment of the long-range future implications of our past and present actions becomes crucially important for the survival of human society. This report includes a synoptic view of world trends and alternative futures. The first and major portion of the…

Future trends in society and technology: implications for wilderness research and management

Treesearch

George H. Stankey

2000-01-01

Judging the impact of social and technological trends on the future of wilderness is complex. Declining public trust, growing demands for scrutiny, a need to recognize the link between biophysical and socioeconomic systems, and the need for criteria to select among alternative futures challenge us. A burgeoning global population will increase resource impacts, but more...

What happened to life expectancy in Spain in the 1980s?

PubMed Central

Chenet, L; McKee, M; Otero, A; Ausin, I

1997-01-01

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy at birth in Spain improved between 1972 and 1982, by 2.5 years for males and 3.2 years for females. This slowed considerably in the following decade, with increases of only 0.5 and 1.7 years respectively. OBJECTIVE: To determine the causes of death that have been responsible for the failure by Spain to maintain in the 1980s and 1990s the rate of improvement in life expectancy seen during the 1970s. DESIGN: Data from WHO mortality tapes grouped in a series of clinically meaningful categories were used to calculate the contribution of each category, in five year age groups, to the changing life expectancy at birth in the two periods. SETTING: Spain. RESULTS: The trend in life expectancy at birth in Spain over this 20 year period can be considered to have two components, both with important consequences for public health policy. Underlying trends include a steady negative contribution from respiratory cancer in men and a reduction in cardiovascular disease. More recent trends include a considerable deterioration in deaths among young adults, most notably from accidents and, possibly, AIDS. CONCLUSION: The failure to maintain the rate of earlier gains in life expectancy in Spain can be attributed largely to a few conditions, although these may indicate less obvious underlying problems. These findings have important consequences for prioritising public health policies. PMID:9425460

The effect of lengthening life expectancy on future pension and long-term care expenditure in England, 2007 to 2032.

PubMed

Malley, Juliette; Hancock, Ruth; Murphy, Mike; Adams, John; Wittenberg, Raphael; Comas-Herrera, Adelina; Curry, Chris; King, Derek; James, Sean; Morciano, Marcello; Pickard, Linda

2011-01-01

The aim of this analysis is to examine the effect of different assumptions about future trends in life expectancy (LE) on the sustainability of the pensions and long-term care (LTC) systems. The context is the continuing debate in England about the reform of state pensions and the reform of the system for financing care and support. Macro and micro simulation models are used to make projections of future public expenditure on LTC services for older people and on state pensions and related benefits, making alternative assumptions on increases in future LE. The projections cover the period 2007 to 2032 and relate to England. Results are presented for a base case and for specified variants to the base case. The base case assumes that the number of older people by age and gender rises in line with the Office for National Statistics' principal 2006-based population projection for England. It also assumes no change in disability rates, no changes in patterns of care, no changes in policy and rises in unit care costs and real average earnings by 2 per cent per year. Under these assumptions public expenditure on pensions and related benefits is projected to rise from 4.7 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2007 to 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2032 and public expenditure on LTC from 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2032. Under a very high LE variant to the GAD principal projection, however, public expenditure on pensions and related benefits is projected to reach 6.8 per cent of GDP in 2032 and public expenditure on LTC 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2032. Policymakers developing reform proposals need to recognise that, since future LE is inevitably uncertain and since variant assumptions about future LE significantly affect expenditure projections, there is a degree of uncertainty about the likely impact of demographic pressures on future public expenditure on pensions and LTC.

Materials processing in space: Future technology trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barter, N. J.

1980-01-01

NASA's materials processing in space- (MPS) program involves both ground and space-based research and looks to frequent and cost effective access to the space environment for necessary progress. The first generation payloads for research are under active design and development. They will be hosted by the Space Shuttle/Spacelab on Earth orbital flights in the early 1980's. hese missions will focus on the acquisition of materials behavior research data, the potential enhancement of Earth based technology, and the implementation of space based processing for specialized, high value materials. Some materials to be studied in these payloads may provide future breakthroughs for stronger alloys, ultrapure glasses, superior electronic components, and new or better chemicals. An operational 25 kW power system is expected to be operational to support sustained, systematic space processing activity beyond shuttle capability for second generation payload systems for SPACELAB and free flyer missions to study solidification and crystal growth and to process metal/alloys, glasses/ceramics, and chemicals and biologicals.

[The future of radiology: What can we expect within the next 10 years?].

PubMed

Nensa, F; Forsting, M; Wetter, A

2016-03-01

More than other medical discipline, radiology is marked by technical innovation and continuous development, as well as the optimization of the underlying physical principles. In this respect, several trends that will crucially change and develop radiology over the next decade can be observed. Through the use of ever faster computer tomography, which also shows an ever-decreasing radiation exposure, the "workhorse" of radiology will have an even greater place and displace conventional X‑ray techniques further. In addition, hybrid imaging, which is based on a combination of nuclear medicine and radiological techniques (keywords: PET/CT, PET/MRI) will become much more established and, in particular, will improve oncological imaging further, allowing increasingly individualized imaging for specific tracers and techniques of functional magnetic resonance imaging for a particular tumour. Future radiology will be strongly characterized by innovations in the software and Internet industry, which will enable new image viewing and processing methods and open up new possibilities in the context of the organization of radiological work.

The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2006-01-01

Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

Changes in Hydrological Extremes and its Relation to Climate Variability in Mountainous Watershed: A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, N. S.; Dahal, P.

2016-12-01

Changes in the hydrological extreme are expected due to climate variability and are needed to assess at local and regional scales since these changes are not uniform over the globe. This study analyses the changes in intensity, frequency and persistence hydrological extreme in Gandaki River Basin (GRB) Nepal over past and future and its relation to climate variability. Hydrological data of 12 different hydrological stations covering all the sub basins of Gandaki River Basin were analyzed. At least 1 hydrological station in each sub basin to the maximum of 3 was taken into consideration for this study. Results show that hydrological extreme have increased in intensity, frequency and persistence over recent year and are predicted to increase in future (2030-2060). The time-series analysis revealed an increase in the magnitude, frequency and duration of flood and drought. The instantaneous maximum flow, flood events and duration of flood events are found to have increasing trend. The minimum discharge was observed to be decreasing which entails that the water availability in the driest time is decreasing. Trend analysis of seasonal flow revealed an increase in monsoon flows and decreasing in post monsoon. Changes in climate variability over the same period shows higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation in recent decades (1990s and 2000s) compared to the baseline period (1970-2000). Model suggests an increasing trend in annual flows with the increase more pronounced in 2060s. Significant increase in extreme flows and subsequent decrease in dependable flows suggest increase in frequency of isolated extreme flows followed by prolonged dry spells. Data also showed that the mean temperature will be increasing from 1.9 0C to 3.1 0C and precipitation will be changing by -8% to +12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period. For long-term planning and management of water resources, current trend and future change in the pattern of water availability should be analysed well in advance. Climate change with intensifying extreme events will likely have serious consequences on the hydrological changes. Therefore, this study would be useful in understanding how the hydrological regime has been changing with climate change in mountainous watershed.

Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

Longevity expectations in the pension fund, insurance, and employee benefits industries.

PubMed

Zhavoronkov, Alex

2015-01-01

Considerable progress has been made in many areas of biomedical science since the 1960s, suggesting likely increases in life expectancy and decreases in morbidity and mortality in the adult population. These changes may pose substantial risks to the pensions and benefits industries. While there is no significant statistical evidence demonstrating rapid decreases in mortality rates, there are conflicting opinions among demographers and biogerontologists on the biological limits of the human lifespan and trends in life expectancy. We administered a survey of the International Employee Benefits Association (IEBA), a large, international industry group. Industry professionals employed by consulting (35%), insurance (24%), pension (14%), and other (27%) companies responded to 32 questions. Respondents showed reasonably conservative views on the future of longevity and retirement, including that for women. The respondents formed their personal longevity expectations based on their family history and, to a lesser degree, on the actuarial life tables. Most of the sample expressed no desire to life past age 100 years, even if the enabling technologies required to maintain a healthy youthful state were available, and only a few respondents in the sample expressed a desire to live for the maximum period (at least) offered by the survey question. The majority of the respondents would not undergo any invasive procedures, and only 56% of the respondents would opt for noninvasive therapies to extend their healthy lifespans to 150 years of age if these were available.

How will the semi-natural vegetation of the UK have changed by 2030 given likely changes in nitrogen deposition?

PubMed

Stevens, Carly J; Payne, Richard J; Kimberley, Adam; Smart, Simon M

2016-01-01

Nitrogen deposition is known to have major impacts on contemporary ecosystems but few studies have addressed how these impacts will develop over coming decades. We consider likely changes to British semi-natural vegetation up to the year 2030 both qualitatively, based on knowledge of species responses from experimental and gradient studies, and quantitatively, based on modelling of species relationships in national monitoring data. We used historical N deposition trends and national predictions of changing deposition to calculate cumulative deposition from 1900 to 2030. Data from the Countryside Survey (1978, 1990 and 1998) was used to parameterise models relating cumulative N deposition to Ellenberg N which were then applied to expected future deposition trends. Changes to habitat suitability for key species of grassland, heathland and bog, and broadleaved woodland to 2030 were predicted using the MultiMOVE model. In UK woodlands by 2030 there is likely to be reduced occurrence of lichens, increased grass cover and a shift towards more nitrophilic vascular plant species. In grasslands we expect changing species composition with reduced occurrence of terricolous lichens and, at least in acid grasslands, reduced species richness. In heaths and bogs we project overall reductions in species richness with decreased occurrence of terricolous lichens and some bryophytes, reduced cover of dwarf shrubs and small increases in grasses. Our study clearly suggests that changes in vegetation due to nitrogen deposition are likely to continue through coming decades. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advancements in medium and high resolution Earth observation for land-surface imaging: Evolutions, future trends and contributions to sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouma, Yashon O.

2016-01-01

Technologies for imaging the surface of the Earth, through satellite based Earth observations (EO) have enormously evolved over the past 50 years. The trends are likely to evolve further as the user community increases and their awareness and demands for EO data also increases. In this review paper, a development trend on EO imaging systems is presented with the objective of deriving the evolving patterns for the EO user community. From the review and analysis of medium-to-high resolution EO-based land-surface sensor missions, it is observed that there is a predictive pattern in the EO evolution trends such that every 10-15 years, more sophisticated EO imaging systems with application specific capabilities are seen to emerge. Such new systems, as determined in this review, are likely to comprise of agile and small payload-mass EO land surface imaging satellites with the ability for high velocity data transmission and huge volumes of spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution data. This availability of data will magnify the phenomenon of ;Big Data; in Earth observation. Because of the ;Big Data; issue, new computing and processing platforms such as telegeoprocessing and grid-computing are expected to be incorporated in EO data processing and distribution networks. In general, it is observed that the demand for EO is growing exponentially as the application and cost-benefits are being recognized in support of resource management.

The Northern Forest Futures Project: examining past, present, and future trends affecting forests in and around the central hardwood forest region

Treesearch

Stephen Shifley

2013-01-01

Th e Northern Forest Futures Project is intended to be a window on tomorrow's forests, revealing how today's trends and choices can change the future landscape of the Northeast and Midwest. Th e research is focused on the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri and Minnesota—the most heavily forested and most densely populated quadrant of the...

Financial Aspects and the Future of the Pharmaceutical Industry in the United States of America

PubMed Central

Karamehic, Jasenko; Ridic, Ognjen; Ridic, Goran; Jukic, Tomislav; Coric, Jozo; Subasic, Djemo; Panjeta, Mirsad; Saban, Aida; Zunic, Lejla; Masic, Izet

2013-01-01

Introduction: The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as “companies engaged in researching, developing, manufacturing and marketing of medicines and biological for human or veterinary use”. Besides its main role in improving human health, the US pharmaceutical industry represents one of the most critical, key decision makers’ lobbying prone and competitive sectors in the economy. The cost in the environment of very limited government price regulation remains one of the major problems fuelling aggregate health care cost inflation. Pharmaceuticals have created huge benefits for public health and economic productivity by the means of saving lives, increasing life expectancy, reducing illness related suffering, preventing surgeries and decreasing hospital stays. Purpose: The goal of this review paper is to show the present conditions and future trends of the pharmaceutical industry in the U.S. Methodology: This paper represents a thorough literature review of the multifaceted sources including: studies, books, peer reviewed journals, U.S. government sources (i.e. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, etc.). Discussion: In the thirty years pharmaceutical companies have consistently developed and launched new medicines, bringing hope to sick or – at risk patients. They also usually provide above the average financial returns for its shareholders. U.S. pharmaceutical companies had as their goal to discover blockbuster drugs. Blockbuster drugs are generally defined as drugs that solve medical problems common to hundreds of millions of people and, at the same time generate large sales increases and profits for the pharmaceutical companies. The main approach of these companies includes huge investments in research and development (R&D), innovation, marketing and sales. The trend analysis shows that for the most part the era of blockbuster drugs is nearing an end. Conclusion: Numerous blockbuster drugs will be coming off patent in the next few years, opening the way to generics and eliminating a major source of the industry’s profits. Still, there is plenty of room for improvement in the medications people take while there is no shortage of human suffering to alleviate. It is doubtful whether big pharmaceutical firms will be able to pursue these goals within the old model of developing exclusive new drugs that can be sold further in the future. In the past, medicines for the ailments that were never before addressed, like anti-cholesterol or anti-depression drugs were developed. Currently, and in the future, it is expected that only blockbuster modifications will be developed. This phenomenon is expected to create market saturation, which will significantly reduce profits. The business model that drove the major drug makers’ success is not working anymore. Pharmaceutical companies must create new ways and to bring new ideas. The survivors will be those that market strategies supported by innovative approaches and winning capabilities. PMID:24511277

In Forests Globally, Large Trees Suffer Most during Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, A. C.; McDowell, N. G.; Allen, C. D.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.

2014-12-01

Globally, drought events are increasing in both frequency and intensity. Spatial and temporal variation in water availability is expected to alter the ecophysiology and structure of forests, with consequent feedbacks to climate change. Extensive tree mortality induced by heat and aridity has been documented across a range of latitudes, and several global vegetation models have simulated widespread forest die-off in the future. The impact of drought on forest structure and function will depend on the differential responses of trees of different sizes. Understanding the size-dependence of drought-induced mortality is necessary to predict local and global impacts. Here we show that in forests worldwide, drought has a greater impact on the growth and mortality of large trees compared to smaller trees. This trend holds true for forests ranging from semiarid woodlands to tropical rainforests. This finding contrasts with what would be expected if deep root access to water were the primary determinant of tree drought response. Rather, the greater drought response of larger trees could be driven by greater inherent vulnerability of large trees to hydraulic stress or by canopy position becoming more of a liability under drought, as exposed crowns face higher evaporative demand. These findings imply that future droughts will have a disproportionate effect on large trees, resulting in a larger feedback to climate change than would occur if all tree size classes were equally affected by drought.

Decreased Proportion of Dementia-Free Life Expectancy in Hong Kong SAR.

PubMed

Cheung, Siu-Lan Karen; Yip, Siu-Fai Paul; Branch, Laurence G; Robine, Jean-Marie

2015-01-01

Estimations of life expectancies (LE) in health and ill health are important for planning future health care support. This study aimed at quantifying whether an increased LE is accompanied by an increase in the duration of life with dementia (DemLE) in Hong Kong SAR. Two parameters from a logistic model were used to fit the overall trend of the weighted prevalence of dementia. Abridged age- and sex-specific life tables and Sullivan's method were used to calculate dementia-free LE (DemFLE) for 1998 and 2013. In 2013, among elderly individuals in Hong Kong aged 65 years, men had lived with dementia for 1.8 years and women for 3.6 years. These values are similar to those for subjects aged ≥85 years, while the proportion of DemLE was much greater at advanced ages. Elderly female individuals tend to experience a greater number of years with dementia than males. Our results indicate although LE has increased for all older age groups over time, the increase in DemFLE has not been greater than the gain in LE, suggesting an absolute expansion of the burden of dementia to the community between 1998 and 2013. The results suggest that more caregiving resources and manpower will be needed in the future as the population ages. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A mathematical model of the impact of present and future malaria vaccines.

PubMed

Wenger, Edward A; Eckhoff, Philip A

2013-04-15

With the encouraging advent of new malaria vaccine candidates, mathematical modelling of expected impacts of present and future vaccines as part of multi-intervention strategies is especially relevant. The impact of potential malaria vaccines is presented utilizing the EMOD model, a comprehensive model of the vector life cycle coupled to a detailed mechanistic representation of intra-host parasite and immune dynamics. Values of baseline transmission and vector feeding behaviour parameters are identified, for which local elimination is enabled by layering pre-erythrocytic vaccines of various efficacies on top of high and sustained insecticide-treated net coverage. The expected reduction in clinical cases is further explored in a scenario that targets children by adding a pre-erythrocytic vaccine to the EPI programme for newborns. At high transmission, there is a minimal reduction in clinical disease cases, as the time to infection is only slightly delayed. At lower transmission, there is an accelerating community-level protection that has subtle dependences on heterogeneities in vector behaviour, ecology, and intervention coverage. At very low transmission, the trend reverses as many children are vaccinated to prevent few cases. The maximum-impact setting is one in which the impact of increasing bed net coverage has saturated, vector feeding is primarily outdoors, and transmission is just above the threshold where small perturbations from a vaccine intervention result in large community benefits.

Managing CO{sub 2} emissions in Nigeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Obioh, I.B.; Oluwole, A.F.; Akeredolu, F.A.

The energy resources in Nigeria are nearly equally divided between fossil fuels and biofuels. The increasing pressure on them, following expected increased population growth, may lead to substantial emissions of carbon into the atmosphere. Additionally agricultural and forestry management practices in vogue are those related to savannah burning and rotational bush fallow systems, which have been clearly implicated as important sources of CO{sub 2} and trace gases. An integrated model for the prediction of future CO{sub 2} emissions based on fossil fuels and biomass fuels requirements, rates of deforestation and other land-use indices is presented. This is further based onmore » trends in population and economic growth up to the year 2025, with a base year in 1988. A coupled carbon cycle-climate model based on the contribution of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases is established from the proportions of integrated global warming effects for a 20-year averaging time using the product of global warming potential (GWP) and total emissions. An energy-technology inventory approach to optimal resources management is used as a tool for establishing the future scope of reducing the CO{sub 2} emissions through improved fossil fuel energy efficiencies. Scenarios for reduction based on gradual to swift shifts from biomass to fossil and renewable fuels are presented together with expected policy options required to effect them.« less

Ectopic pregnancy.

PubMed

Carr, R J; Evans, P

2000-03-01

Ectopic pregnancy occurs in approximately 2% of all pregnancies in the United States, and is the nation's leading cause of first trimester maternal death. Its incidence has increased sixfold in the past 25 years, despite significant improvements in techniques for early diagnosis and management. This article reviews the epidemiology, risk factors, and common clinical presentations of ectopic pregnancy. Both traditional and newly developed strategies for diagnosis and management are described. The primary care physician is in an excellent position to screen for and diagnose ectopic pregnancy, and to counsel patients regarding treatment options and future risks. With the increasing trend toward outpatient nonsurgical management of ectopics, it is expected that the roll of the primary care physician in managing patients with ectopic pregnancy will continue to increase.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Du, Pengwei; Etingov, Pavel V.

This planning reference book is a document reflecting a Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) effort to put together multiple sources of information and provide a clear, systemic, comprehensive outline of the problems, both existing and anticipated; their impacts on the system; currently used and proposed solutions by the industry and research community; planning practices; new technologies, equipment, and standards; and expected future trends. This living (periodically updated) document could help WECC and other practicing engineers, especially the younger generation of engineers joining the workforce, to get familiar with a large variety of information related to the integration of variable resourcesmore » into the WECC system, bypassing in part the need for time-consuming information gathering and learning processes from more experienced engineers or from the literature.« less

Study on communications costs for Columbus utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, Svend Moller; Sorensen, Nicolaj

1988-09-01

On the basis of a hypothetical communications scenario established for cost calculations, the expected communications costs for Columbus utilization in the year 1995 and onwards to the year 2025, are estimated to provide initial considerations for a charging policy in relation to potential Columbus users. A hypothetical sample of five European countries is established, and current telecommunications tariffs for the data, voice, and video communications required for the Columbus utilization in and between these five countries and the USA are identified. Technological, political, and commercial development trends are analyzed as to their likely influences on future telecommunications tariff development. Communications costs for the study period are estimated, assuming telecommunications administrations to be providers of service and considering estimated equipment and operations costs. Alternative communications solutions are indicated.

Effect of tax laws on mineral exploration in Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeYoung, J.H.

1977-01-01

Changes since 1972 in Canadian federal and provincial tax laws have eliminated many of the prior tax incentives offered to the mining industry. These changes provide an opportunity to study the effect of tax laws on a country's mineral resource development by comparing trends in mineral exploration in various provinces with adjoining regions, and by comparing these results with firm behaviour that would be expected from microeconomic analysis. Mineral producers have sought higher, more stable returns, resulting in shifts of exploration into political regions with more favourable and less changeable tax policies. Future supplies of mineral raw materials from a political region are dependent on current exploration effort, which is in turn influenced by the region's tax laws. ?? 1977.

Application of Virtual, Augmented, and Mixed Reality to Urology.

PubMed

Hamacher, Alaric; Kim, Su Jin; Cho, Sung Tae; Pardeshi, Sunil; Lee, Seung Hyun; Eun, Sung-Jong; Whangbo, Taeg Keun

2016-09-01

Recent developments in virtual, augmented, and mixed reality have introduced a considerable number of new devices into the consumer market. This momentum is also affecting the medical and health care sector. Although many of the theoretical and practical foundations of virtual reality (VR) were already researched and experienced in the 1980s, the vastly improved features of displays, sensors, interactivity, and computing power currently available in devices offer a new field of applications to the medical sector and also to urology in particular. The purpose of this review article is to review the extent to which VR technology has already influenced certain aspects of medicine, the applications that are currently in use in urology, and the future development trends that could be expected.

Application of Virtual, Augmented, and Mixed Reality to Urology

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Recent developments in virtual, augmented, and mixed reality have introduced a considerable number of new devices into the consumer market. This momentum is also affecting the medical and health care sector. Although many of the theoretical and practical foundations of virtual reality (VR) were already researched and experienced in the 1980s, the vastly improved features of displays, sensors, interactivity, and computing power currently available in devices offer a new field of applications to the medical sector and also to urology in particular. The purpose of this review article is to review the extent to which VR technology has already influenced certain aspects of medicine, the applications that are currently in use in urology, and the future development trends that could be expected. PMID:27706017

The floating-gate non-volatile semiconductor memory--from invention to the digital age.

PubMed

Sze, S M

2012-10-01

In the past 45 years (from 1967 to 2012), the non-volatile semiconductor memory (NVSM) has emerged from a floating-gate concept to the prime technology driver of the largest industry in the world-the electronics industry. In this paper, we briefly review the historical development of NVSM and project its future trends to the year 2020. In addition, we consider NVSM's wide-range of applications from the digital cellular phone to tablet computer to digital television. As the device dimension is scaled down to the deca-nanometer regime, we expect that many innovations will be made to meet the scaling challenges, and NVSM-inspired technology will continue to enrich and improve our lives for decades to come.

Socioeconomic development and secular trend in height in China.

PubMed

Zong, Xin-Nan; Li, Hui; Wu, Hua-Hong; Zhang, Ya-Qin

2015-12-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effect of socioeconomic development on secular trend in height among children and adolescents in China. Body height and spermarcheal/menarcheal ages were obtained from two periodic large-scale national representative surveys in China between 1975 and 2010. Chinese socioeconomic development indicators were obtained from the United Nations world population prospects. The effects of plausible determinants were assessed by partial least-squares regression. The average height of children and adolescents improved in tandem with socioeconomic development, without any tendency to plateau. The increment of height trend presented larger around puberty than earlier or later ages. The partial least-squares regressions with gross national income, life expectancy and spermarcheal/menarcheal age accounted for increment of height trend from 88.3% to 98.3% for males and from 82.9% to 97.3% for females in adolescence. Further, through the analysis of the variable importance for projection, the contributions of gross national income and life expectancy on height increment were confirmed to be significant in childhood and adolescence, and the contribution of spermarcheal/menarcheal age was superior to both of them in adolescence. We concluded that positive secular trend in height in China was significantly associated with socioeconomic status (GNI as indicator) and medical and health conditions (life expectancy as indicator). Earlier onset of spermarche and menarche proved to be an important role in larger increment of the trend over time of height at puberty for a population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying Changes in the Probability of High Temperature, High Humidity Heat Wave Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, T.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding how heat waves will respond to climate change is critical for adequate planning and adaptation. While temperature is the primary determinant of heat wave severity, humidity has been shown to play a key role in heat wave intensity with direct links to human health and safety. Here we investigate the individual contributions of temperature and specific humidity to extreme heat wave conditions in recent decades. Using global NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II daily data, we identify regional variability in the joint probability distribution of humidity and temperature. We also identify a statistically significant positive trend in humidity over the eastern U.S. during heat wave events, leading to an increased probability of high humidity, high temperature events. The extent to which we can expect this trend to continue under climate change is complicated due to variability between CMIP5 models, in particular among projections of humidity. However, our results support the notion that heat wave dynamics are characterized by more than high temperatures alone, and understanding and quantifying the various components of the heat wave system is crucial for forecasting future impacts.

Dynamical Cognitive Models of Social Issues in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitina, Olga; Abraham, Fred; Petrenko, Victor

We examine and model dynamics in three areas of social cognition: (1) political transformations within Russia, (2) evaluation of political trends in other countries by Russians, and (3) evaluation of Russian stereotypes concerning women. We try to represent consciousness as vectorfields and trajectories in a cognitive state space. We use psychosemantic techniques that allow definition of the state space and the systematic construction of these vectorfields and trajectories and their portrait from research data. Then we construct models to fit them, using multiple regression methods to obtain linear differential equations. These dynamical models of social cognition fit the data quite well. (1) The political transformations were modeled by a spiral repellor in a two-dimensional space of a democratic-totalitarian factor and social depression-optimism factor. (2) The evaluation of alien political trends included a flow away from a saddle toward more stable and moderate political regimes in a 2D space, of democratic-totalitarian and unstable-stable cognitive dimensions. (3) The gender study showed expectations (attractors) for more liberated, emancipated roles for women in the future.

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Higgins, Hélène; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Marsh, Terry; Looser, Ulrich

2012-01-01

Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change—the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future—and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.

Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service.

2012-01-01

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting on Academic Libraries: A Mixed Methodology Using Journal Content Analysis, Focus Groups, and Trend Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gwyer, Roisin

2015-01-01

This article compares three sources of information about academic libraries to consider what the future could hold and the skills needed to deliver effective services within that future. The starting point is the contents of "New Review of Academic Librarianship" (formerly "British Journal of Academic Librarianship") from 1986,…

Another 25 Years of AIED? Challenges and Opportunities for Intelligent Educational Technologies of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinkwart, Niels

2016-01-01

This paper attempts an analysis of some current trends and future developments in computer science, education, and educational technology. Based on these trends, two possible future predictions of AIED are presented in the form of a utopian vision and a dystopian vision. A comparison of these two visions leads to seven challenges that AIED might…

The Future of the Campus: Architecture and Master Planning Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulson, Jonathan; Roberts, Paul; Taylor, Isabelle

2015-01-01

The article discusses current and likely future trends within the architecture and master planning of university campuses. It argues that higher education administrators must maximise the value of the campus to create physical environments that enhance the student experience.

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.

PubMed

Kissling, W D; Field, R; Korntheuer, H; Heyder, U; Böhning-Gaese, K

2010-07-12

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.

Lake Energy Budget and Temperature Profiles Under Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofgren, B. M.; Xiao, C.

2017-12-01

Future climates under higher concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to feature higher air and water temperatures, and shifts in surface heat fluxes. We investigate in greater detail the evolution of this in terms of the annual cycle of lake temperature profiles, stratification, and ice formation. Other work has found that, although shallower water promotes more rapid changes in surface water temperature within a season, change in surface water temperature across decades is more prominent in locations with greater water depth. Our simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its lake module, WRF-Lake, show a trend toward longer periods of summer stratification, both through earlier onset in the spring and later decay of stratification in the fall. They also show a general increase in temperature throughout the water column, but most pronounced near the surface during the summer. Likewise, ice duration is much shorter and more restricted to shallow embayments. High latent and sensible heat flux during the fall and winter are less intense but longer lasting under the future scenario. Sources of uncertainty are cumulative—actual future greenhouse gas concentrations, global sensitivity of climate change, cloud feedbacks, the combined formulation of the regional climate model (WRF) and its global driving model, and more.

High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitations over China through PRECIS under RCPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui; Wu, Yinghui

2018-06-01

The impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitations over China is investigated by using the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) model. The PRECIS model was driven by the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 with Earth System components and coupling (HadGEM2-ES). The results of both models are analyzed in terms of mean precipitation and indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R99p, SDII, WDF, and CWD) over China at the resolution of 25 km under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the baseline period (1976-2005) and two future periods (2036-2065 and 2070-2099). With improved resolution, the PRECIS model is able to better represent the fine-scale physical process than HadGEM2-ES. It can provide reliable spatial patterns of precipitation and its related extremes with high correlations to observations. Moreover, there is a notable improvement in temporal patterns simulation through the PRECIS model. The PRECIS model better reproduces the regional annual cycle and frequencies of daily precipitation intensity than its driving GCM. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both the HadGEM2-ES and the precis project increasing annual precipitation over the entire country for two future periods. Precipitation increase in winter is greater than the increase in summer. The results suggest that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 would further intensify the magnitude of projected precipitation changes by both PRECIS and HadGEM2-ES. For example, some parts of south China with decreased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect even less precipitation under RCP8.5; regions (northwest, northcentral and northeast China) with increased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect more precipitation under RCP8.5. Apart from the projected increase in annual total precipitation, the results also suggest that there will be an increase in the days with precipitation higher than 15 mm and a decrease in the days with precipitation less than 5 mm. Under both RCPs, there would be an increasing trend in the magnitude of changes in precipitation extremes indices (R95p, R99p, and SDII) over China, while an opposite trend is projected for CWD and no apparent trend is projected for WDF from 2036-2065 to 2070-2099. Increased extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with decreased frequencies of extreme precipitation suggest that the future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to become large in northeast China and south China.

Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdul Aziz, Omar I.; Burn, Donald H.

2006-03-01

Trends and variability in the hydrological regime were analyzed for the Mackenzie River Basin in northern Canada. The procedure utilized the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to detect trends, the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach for correcting time-series data for autocorrelation and a bootstrap resampling method to account for the cross-correlation structure of the data. A total of 19 hydrological and six meteorological variables were selected for the study. Analysis was conducted on hydrological data from a network of 54 hydrometric stations and meteorological data from a network of 10 stations. The results indicated that several hydrological variables exhibit a greater number of significant trends than are expected to occur by chance. Noteworthy were strong increasing trends over the winter month flows of December to April as well as in the annual minimum flow and weak decreasing trends in the early summer and late fall flows as well as in the annual mean flow. An earlier onset of the spring freshet is noted over the basin. The results are expected to assist water resources managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the Mackenzie River Basin.

Land use in Maine: determinants of past trends and projections of future changes.

Treesearch

Andrew J. Plantinga; Thomas Mauldlin; Ralph J. Alig

1999-01-01

About 90 percent of the land in Maine is in forests. We analyzed past land use trends in Maine and developed projections of future land use. Since the 1950s, the area of forest in Maine has increased by almost 400,000 acres; however, the trends differ among ownerships, as the area of nonindustrial private timberland declined by 800,000 acres since 1950, while private...

High Resolution Land Surface Modeling over the NEF Basin in the Chilean Patagonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.

2017-12-01

Stakeholders and policy makers perceive that water and climate change adaptation are among the most vulnerable issues that need to be addressed. Therefore, there is a need not only from the scientific community but also from the society to use integrated methodologies that link advances in climatology with hydrology to provide data that helps us to provide adaptation strategies. The Andes and the Chilean-Argentinean Patagonia have been steadily warming up to 0.5 Celsius degrees per decades at the same time that precipitation is decreasing by 10 to 12 % per decade. In the future is expected that these trends will continue which will have impacts in the annual water budget. The Chilean Patagonia has brought a lot of attention during last decade because two hydroelectric project seek to build dams in one of the most pristine environments in the world. Also, in the Baker River basin a series of Glacier Lakes Outburst Flood have occurred which is perceived as an undeniable consequence of the effects of climate change in the glacier system. Major attention is mainly situated in the impact of climate change in glaciers contribution to sea level rise, GLOF studies given the numerous supra glacier lakes that are forming, and the study of stream flow point observation. The objectives of this research are: 1) Study the historical trends of precipitation, temperature, land cover changes and streamflow available in the Baker Basin; 2) Use a couple glacier model with a land surface model to predict the evolution of glaciers and their effects in the water availability. To address these objectives, I will analyze trends in hydro meteorology observations and correlation with trends in Land Cover Changes. Use the WRF-hydro framework to generate data in a small watershed that will allow to calibrate a high resolution hydro glaciology model to understand the partition between glaciered and non-glaciered runoff. The parameters estimated in the small domain could have the potential to be transfer to a regional setting and pseudo climate data will be used to study the impacts of climate change in the Baker River Basin system hydrology. The expected results are: 1) Land cover change maps and trends, and their relationship to changes in streamflow, and climate observations. 2) a calibrated hydro glaciology model for a catchment in the NEF river Basin

Linking the Mediterranean regional and the global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, Piero; Scarascia, Luca

2017-04-01

This contribution analyzes 22 CMIP5 global climate projections to show how is the regional climate change in the Mediterranean related to the global climate change. The aim is to use these recent results to revisit evidences suggesting that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hot spot. Results show that future increase of temperature in the Mediterranean region has a strong seasonal connotation, with summer warming at a pace 40% larger than the global mean. This future trend is consistent with the global reduction of the meridional temperature gradient that is produced by climate change. However spatial distribution of changes shows a strong a sub-regional modulation depending of the land-sea contrast, the role of soil moisture feedback and changes of large scale atmospheric circulation leading to increased subsidence conditions. Projections show that precipitation decrease will affect most of the region, but with a strong difference between southern and northern areas, where CMIP5 projections suggest a 7% and 3% decrease of annual precipitation for each degree of global warming, respectively. For both Mediterranean temperature and precipitation, the dependence is substantially linear in the range up to 40C of global warming. Interannual variability and intermodel differences are a substantial source of uncertainty for precipitation (while there is a robust consensus for temperature changes). Therefore, future precipitation changes are still a controversial issue, in terms of intensity and precise location of the transition belt that separates the decrease of precipitation over the MR from areas in central and northern Europe, where precipitation is expected to increase. On this respect, though the overall drying trend appears consolidated in the scientific literature, its precise evaluation remains to some extent controversial.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Assessing future expectations and the two-dimensional model of affect in an Italian population.

PubMed

Corno, Giulia; Molinari, Guadalupe; Baños, Rosa Maria

2017-03-01

Future-directed thinking has been described as part of two underlying systems that integrate dimensions of affect, motivational systems, orientation to the future, and future expectations, which are initiated at the cognitive, affective, biological, behavioral, and motivational levels. The main aim of the present study is to test the two underlying frameworks model and explore future expectations in a general Italian-speaking population (N=345). Therefore, the second aim of the present paper is to confirm the factorial structure of the Subjective Probability Task (SPT; MacLeod et al., 1996), a questionnaire designed to assess specific positive and negative orientations towards the future. Results showed that the SPT has good psychometric properties and it is a reliable instrument to assess future-directed thinking. Moreover, our findings confirmed the role of future expectancies as cognitive correlates of depression and anxiety. Differently from previous studies (Clark and Watson, 1991; MacLeod et al., 1996), our results did not confirm that depression was characterized by low positive affect. We believe this paper contributes to the understanding of future expectancies and their relation with anxiety and depression, and will help to expand the availability of an instrument to assess future directed thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Watch: Our Schools in the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Judith K.; Herer, Gilbert R.

1994-01-01

This article reviews major social, technological, economic, and political trends in the United States and relates this larger perspective to the practices of speech language pathologists and audiologists in the schools. Implications of these trends for alternative futures are drawn. (Author/DB)

Virtual Universities: Current Models and Future Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guri-Rosenblit, Sarah

2001-01-01

Describes current models of distance education (single-mode distance teaching universities, dual- and mixed-mode universities, extension services, consortia-type ventures, and new technology-based universities), including their merits and problems. Discusses future trends in potential student constituencies, faculty roles, forms of knowledge…

Past and Future Trends in Light Truck Sales.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-08-01

This report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark II) and its associated databases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the Light Duty Truck market. The dynamic historical growth in this market and its implications for ene...

Expectations, Fears, and Strategies: Juvenile Offender Thoughts on a Future outside of Incarceration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clinkinbeard, Samantha S.; Zohra, Tusty

2012-01-01

The current article explores the possible selves, or future expectations, of 543 incarcerated juvenile offenders in four Western states in the United States. We argue that juveniles who are able to articulate future expectations and fears and generate concrete strategies for achieving their goals have higher levels of motivational capital (i.e.,…

Making predictions skill level analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katarína, Krišková; Marián, Kireš

2017-01-01

The current trend in the education is focused on skills that are cross-subject and have a great importance for the pupil future life. Pupils should acquire different types of skills during their education to be prepared for future careers and life in the 21st century. Physics as a subject offers many opportunities for pupils' skills development. One of the skills that are expected to be developed in physics and also in other sciences is making predictions. The prediction, in the meaning of the argument about what may happen in the future, is an integral part of the empirical cognition, in which students confront existing knowledge and experience with new, hitherto unknown and surprising phenomena. The extent of the skill is the formulation of hypotheses, which is required in the upper secondary physics education. In the contribution, the prediction skill is specified and its eventual levels are classified. Authors focus on the tools for skill level determination based on the analysis of pupils` worksheets. Worksheets are the part of the educational activities conducted within the Inquiry Science Laboratory Steelpark. Based on the formulation of pupils' prediction the pupils thinking can be seen and their understanding of the topic, as well as preconceptions and misconceptions.

Of possible cheminformatics futures.

PubMed

Oprea, Tudor I; Taboureau, Olivier; Bologa, Cristian G

2012-01-01

For over a decade, cheminformatics has contributed to a wide array of scientific tasks from analytical chemistry and biochemistry to pharmacology and drug discovery; and although its contributions to decision making are recognized, the challenge is how it would contribute to faster development of novel, better products. Here we address the future of cheminformatics with primary focus on innovation. Cheminformatics developers often need to choose between "mainstream" (i.e., accepted, expected) and novel, leading-edge tools, with an increasing trend for open science. Possible futures for cheminformatics include the worst case scenario (lack of funding, no creative usage), as well as the best case scenario (complete integration, from systems biology to virtual physiology). As "-omics" technologies advance, and computer hardware improves, compounds will no longer be profiled at the molecular level, but also in terms of genetic and clinical effects. Among potentially novel tools, we anticipate machine learning models based on free text processing, an increased performance in environmental cheminformatics, significant decision-making support, as well as the emergence of robot scientists conducting automated drug discovery research. Furthermore, cheminformatics is anticipated to expand the frontiers of knowledge and evolve in an open-ended, extensible manner, allowing us to explore multiple research scenarios in order to avoid epistemological "local information minimum trap".

Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment: United States, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Sasson, Isaac

2016-04-01

The educational gradient in life expectancy is well documented in the United States and in other low-mortality countries. Highly educated Americans, on average, live longer than their low-educated counterparts, who have recently seen declines in adult life expectancy. However, limiting the discussion on lifespan inequality to mean differences alone overlooks other dimensions of inequality and particularly disparities in lifespan variation. The latter represents a unique form of inequality, with higher variation translating into greater uncertainty in the time of death from an individual standpoint, and higher group heterogeneity from a population perspective. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System from 1990 to 2010, this is the first study to document trends in both life expectancy and S25--the standard deviation of age at death above 25--by educational attainment. Among low-educated whites, adult life expectancy declined by 3.1 years for women and by 0.6 years for men. At the same time, S25 increased by about 1.5 years among high school-educated whites of both genders, becoming an increasingly important component of total lifespan inequality. By contrast, college-educated whites benefited from rising life expectancy and record low variation in age at death, consistent with the shifting mortality scenario. Among blacks, adult life expectancy increased, and S25 plateaued or declined in nearly all educational attainment groups, although blacks generally lagged behind whites of the same gender on both measures. Documenting trends in lifespan variation can therefore improve our understanding of lifespan inequality and point to diverging trajectories in adult mortality across socioeconomic strata.

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

Assessment of projected climate change in the Carpathian Region using the Holdridge life zone system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Kis, Anna; Pongrácz, Rita; Sümegi, Pál

2018-01-01

In this paper, expected changes in the spatial and altitudinal distribution patterns of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) types are analysed to assess the possible ecological impacts of future climate change for the Carpathian Region, by using 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation. The distribution patterns of HLZ types are characterized by the relative extent, the mean centre and the altitudinal range. According to the applied projections, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) the altitudinal ranges are likely to expand in the future, (b) the lower and upper altitudinal limits as well as the altitudinal midpoints may move to higher altitudes, (c) a northward shift is expected for most HLZ types and (d) the magnitudes of these shifts can even be multiples of those observed in the last century. Related to the northward shifts, the HLZ types warm temperate thorn steppe and subtropical dry forest can also appear in the southern segment of the target area. However, a large uncertainty in the estimated changes of precipitation patterns was indicated by the following: (a) the expected change in the coverage of the HLZ type cool temperate steppe is extremely uncertain because there is no consensus among the projections even in terms of the sign of the change (high inter-model variability) and (b) a significant trend in the westward/eastward shift is simulated just for some HLZ types (high temporal variability). Finally, it is important to emphasize that the uncertainty of our results is further enhanced by the fact that some important aspects (e.g. seasonality of climate variables, direct CO2 effect, etc.) cannot be considered in the estimating process.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

Mai Population

PubMed

Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

2017-05-01

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. Creative Commons Attribution License

U.S. Coastal Flood Damage Reduction Projects: Federal Authorization and Investment Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, N. T.

2015-12-01

The 2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action estimated the potential cumulative future economic impacts of storm surge and sea-level rise on U.S. coasts during this century at 5 trillion (2014 dollars) if no adaptation measures are implemented. These impacts drop to 0.8 trillion if investments are made in cost-effective adaptations and protections. Awareness of flood risk and its long-term fiscal impact historically has proven insufficient to motivate pre-disaster land use changes and investments in mitigation and protection. While many adaptations and protections fall largely under state and local authority, some stakeholders are interested in federal coastal flood protection projects, including projects by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Since the 1950s, Congress has authorized the Corps to construct specific coastal projects. The broad vision, strategy, and priorities for the federal role in coastal flood damage reduction projects nonetheless remain ill-defined. This research analyzes (1) the authorization and appropriations trends for Corps coastal storm damage reduction projects, and (2) how Corps feasibility studies account for and address coastal flood hazards. Identified trends include: emergency appropriations for storm-damaged areas outstrip annual investments in coastal flood projects; the rate at which projects are congressionally approved for construction outpaces the rate at which construction is funded; and how coastal protection projects are evaluated in Corps feasibility studies shows variation and change in agency practices. These trends have consequences; they affect public and local expectations when projects begin providing protection benefits, and may influence investments in other adaptation measures. These trends also raise questions for policymakers at all levels and for scientists and practitioners interested in coastal flood resilience.

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

COMPUTER SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ESTIMATING CHEMICAL TOXICITY: PRESENT CAPABILITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

EPA Science Inventory

Computer Support Systems for Estimating Chemical Toxicity: Present Capabilities and Future Trends

A wide variety of computer-based artificial intelligence (AI) and decision support systems exist currently to aid in the assessment of toxicity for environmental chemicals. T...

Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

Mountain Climates on the Move: Implications for Past and Future Vegetation Shifts in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wason, J. W., III; Dovciak, M.; Bevilacqua, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change in the northeastern United States is expected to shift climatic (temperature) envelopes for spruce-fir forests upslope and northward decreasing their area in the region by 2100. Coarse scale landscape models however, may not incorporate heterogeneity in climatic conditions in mountains that can create climatic refugia for species in high-elevation spruce-fir forests. To determine spatial and temporal trends in climate of mountain spruce-fir forests we measured microclimate at 98 forest plots in 2012 and 2013 on 12 mountains in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. By linking regional climate trends with our spatial climate data we calculated elevational shifts in temperature envelopes during the last 50 years. Additionally we linked our spatial dataset to a range of future climate conditions for 2100 based on Representative Concentration Pathways (1 to 5°C warming). We hypothesized that climates have already changed to an extent that spruce-fir forests should begin to respond and that future climate conditions may shift suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests beyond their current range. We found that regional climate change over the last 50 years has resulted in warming of 0.66 and 1.62°C for average annual daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures in the region. When linked to our spatial microclimate model, this warming results in a 100 (Tmax) and 312m (Tmin) upslope shift in temperature envelopes. Future climate projections suggest that by 2100 Tmax may shift upslope between 152 and 758m for the 1 and 5°C scenarios respectively, while Tmin may shift upslope between 192 and 962m. Spruce-fir forests typically occupy an elevation range of ~500m suggesting that the climate experienced in these forests 50 years ago may not be found within their elevation range by 2100. These results are discussed in the context of responses of tree populations and growth rates observed along the elevation gradients of northeastern United States.

An outlook for cargo aircraft of the future. [assessment of the future of air cargo by analyzing statistics and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicks, O. W.; Whitehead, A. H., Jr.; Alford, W. J., Jr.

1975-01-01

An assessment is provided of the future of air cargo by analyzing air cargo statistics and trends, by noting air cargo system problems and inefficiencies, by analyzing characteristics of air-eligible commodities, and by showing the promise of new technology for future cargo aircraft with significant improvements in costs and efficiency. NASA's proposed program is reviewed which would sponsor the research needed to provide for development of advanced designs by 1985.

Pharmacy users’ expectations of pharmacy encounters: a Q‐methodological study

PubMed Central

Renberg, Tobias; Wichman Törnqvist, Kristina; Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia; Kettis Lindblad, Åsa; Tully, Mary P.

2010-01-01

Abstract Background  Pharmacy practice is evolving according to general health‐care trends such as increased patient involvement and public health initiatives. In addition, pharmacists strive to find new professional roles. Clients’ expectations of service encounters at pharmacies is an under‐explored topic but crucial to understanding how pharmacy practice can evolve efficiently. Objective  To identify and describe different normative expectations of the pharmacy encounter among pharmacy clients. Methods  Q methodology, an approach to systematically explore subjectivity that retains complete patterns of responses and organizes these into factors of operant subjectivity. Setting and participants  Eighty‐five regular prescription medication users recruited at Swedish community pharmacies and by snowballing. Results  Seven factors of operant subjectivity were identified, and organized into two groups. Factors that emphasized the physical drug product as the central object of the pharmacy encounter were labelled as independent drug shopping; logistics of drug distribution; and supply of individual’s own drugs. Factors that emphasized personal support as desirable were labelled competence as individual support; individualist professional relations, just take care of me; and practical health‐care and lifestyle support. Discussion and conclusions  The systematic Q‐methodological approach yielded valuable insights into how pharmacy clients construct their expectations for service encounters. They hold differentiating normative expectations for pharmacy services. Understanding these varying viewpoints may be important for developing and prioritizing among efficient pharmacy services. Clients’ expectations do not correspond with trends that guide current pharmacy practice development. This might be a challenge for promoting or implementing services based on such trends. PMID:21199199

Pharmacy users' expectations of pharmacy encounters: a Q-methodological study.

PubMed

Renberg, Tobias; Wichman Törnqvist, Kristina; Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia; Kettis Lindblad, Asa; Tully, Mary P

2011-12-01

Pharmacy practice is evolving according to general health-care trends such as increased patient involvement and public health initiatives. In addition, pharmacists strive to find new professional roles. Clients' expectations of service encounters at pharmacies is an under-explored topic but crucial to understanding how pharmacy practice can evolve efficiently. To identify and describe different normative expectations of the pharmacy encounter among pharmacy clients. Q methodology, an approach to systematically explore subjectivity that retains complete patterns of responses and organizes these into factors of operant subjectivity. Eighty-five regular prescription medication users recruited at Swedish community pharmacies and by snowballing. Seven factors of operant subjectivity were identified, and organized into two groups. Factors that emphasized the physical drug product as the central object of the pharmacy encounter were labelled as independent drug shopping; logistics of drug distribution; and supply of individual's own drugs. Factors that emphasized personal support as desirable were labelled competence as individual support; individualist professional relations, just take care of me; and practical health-care and lifestyle support. The systematic Q-methodological approach yielded valuable insights into how pharmacy clients construct their expectations for service encounters. They hold differentiating normative expectations for pharmacy services. Understanding these varying viewpoints may be important for developing and prioritizing among efficient pharmacy services. Clients' expectations do not correspond with trends that guide current pharmacy practice development. This might be a challenge for promoting or implementing services based on such trends. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Range-wide patterns of greater sage-grouse persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Nielsen, Scott E.; Beyer, Hawthorne L.; Boyce, Mark S.; Connelly, John W.; Knick, Steven T.; Schroeder, Michael A.

2008-01-01

Aim: Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a shrub-steppe obligate species of western North America, currently occupies only half its historical range. Here we examine how broad-scale, long-term trends in landscape condition have affected range contraction. Location: Sagebrush biome of the western USA. Methods: Logistic regression was used to assess persistence and extirpation of greater sage-grouse range based on landscape conditions measured by human population (density and population change), vegetation (percentage of sagebrush habitat), roads (density of and distance to roads), agriculture (cropland, farmland and cattle density), climate (number of severe and extreme droughts) and range periphery. Model predictions were used to identify areas where future extirpations can be expected, while also explaining possible causes of past extirpations. Results: Greater sage-grouse persistence and extirpation were significantly related to sagebrush habitat, cultivated cropland, human population density in 1950, prevalence of severe droughts and historical range periphery. Extirpation of sage-grouse was most likely in areas having at least four persons per square kilometre in 1950, 25% cultivated cropland in 2002 or the presence of three or more severe droughts per decade. In contrast, persistence of sage-grouse was expected when at least 30 km from historical range edge and in habitats containing at least 25% sagebrush cover within 30 km. Extirpation was most often explained (35%) by the combined effects of peripherality (within 30 km of range edge) and lack of sagebrush cover (less than 25% within 30 km). Based on patterns of prior extirpation and model predictions, we predict that 29% of remaining range may be at risk. Main Conclusions: Spatial patterns in greater sage-grouse range contraction can be explained by widely available landscape variables that describe patterns of remaining sagebrush habitat and loss due to cultivation, climatic trends, human population growth and peripherality of populations. However, future range loss may relate less to historical mechanisms and more to recent changes in land use and habitat condition, including energy developments and invasions by non-native species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and West Nile virus. In conjunction with local measures of population performance, landscape-scale predictions of future range loss may be useful for prioritizing management and protection. Our results suggest that initial conservation efforts should focus on maintaining large expanses of sagebrush habitat, enhancing quality of existing habitats, and increasing habitat connectivity.

Recruiting Trends 1981-82: A Study of 428 Businesses, Industries, Government Agencies, and Educational Institutions Employing New College Graduates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shingleton, John D.; Scheetz, L. Patrick

Results of the 1981-82 recruiting trends survey conducted by Placement Services at Michigan State University are summarized. A cross-section of 428 businesses, industries, government agencies, and educational institutions were surveyed to determine trends in hiring new college graduates, expected starting salaries, campus recruiting activities,…

Excitation mechanisms for Jovian seismic modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markham, Steve; Stevenson, Dave

2018-05-01

Recent (2011) results from the Nice Observatory indicate the existence of global seismic modes on Jupiter in the frequency range between 0.7 and 1.5 mHz with amplitudes of tens of cm/s. Currently, the driving force behind these modes is a mystery; the measured amplitudes are many orders of magnitude larger than anticipated based on theory analogous to helioseismology (that is, turbulent convection as a source of stochastic excitation). One of the most promising hypotheses is that these modes are driven by Jovian storms. This work constructs a framework to analytically model the expected equilibrium normal mode amplitudes arising from convective columns in storms. We also place rough constraints on Jupiter's seismic modal quality factor. Using this model, neither meteor strikes, turbulent convection, nor water storms can feasibly excite the order of magnitude of observed amplitudes. Next we speculate about the potential role of rock storms deeper in Jupiter's atmosphere, because the rock storms' expected energy scales make them promising candidates to be the chief source of excitation for Jovian seismic modes, based on simple scaling arguments. We also suggest some general trends in the expected partition of energy between different frequency modes. Finally we supply some commentary on potential applications to gravity, Juno, Cassini and Saturn, and future missions to Uranus and Neptune.

Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.

2013-12-01

A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

A study of factors affecting the adoption of server virtualization technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Hsin-Ke; Lin, Peng-Chun; Chiang, Chang-Heng; Cho, Chien-An

2018-04-01

It has become a trend that worldwide enterprises and organizations apply new technologies to improve their operations; besides, it has higher cost and less flexibility to construct and manage traditional servers, therefore the current mainstream is to use server virtualization technology. However, from these new technology organizations will not necessarily get the expected benefits because each one has its own level of organizational complexity and abilities to accept changes. The researcher investigated key factors affecting the adoption of virtualization technology through two phases. In phase I, the researcher reviewed literature and then applied the dimensions of "Information Systems Success Model" (ISSM) to generalize the factors affecting the adoption of virtualization technology to be the preliminary theoretical framework and develop a questionnaire; in phase II, a three-round Delphi Method was used to integrate the opinions of experts from related fields which were then gradually converged in order to obtain a stable and objective questionnaire of key factors so that these results were expected to provide references for organizations' adoption of server virtualization technology and future studies.

Changes in the carbon footprint of Japanese households in an aging society.

PubMed

Shigetomi, Yosuke; Nansai, Keisuke; Kagawa, Shigemi; Tohno, Susumu

2014-06-03

As the aging and low birthrate trends continue in Japan, and as changes in the working population and consumption patterns occur, new factors are expected to have an impact on consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We present the impacts of changes in the composition of Japanese households on GHG emission structures using current (2005) consumption-based accounting on the commodity sectors that are expected to require priority efforts for reducing emissions in 2035. This is done using the Global Link Input-Output model (GLIO) and domestic household consumption data and assuming that recent detailed consumption expenditures based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) will continue into the future. The results show that consumption-based GHG emissions derived from Japanese household consumption in 2035 are estimated to be 1061 Mt-CO2eq (4.2% lower than in 2005). This study can be used to reveal more information and as a resource in developing policies to more meticulously and efficiently reduce emissions based on emission and import rates for each domestic and overseas commodity supply chain.

Projecting the Demand for Dental Care in 2040.

PubMed

Manski, Richard J; Meyerhoefer, Chad D

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a forward-thinking assessment of the underlying factors likely to impact trends in dental care demand and the need for dental providers in 2020, 2025, and beyond. Dental workforce trends and their likely impact on the need for dentists are a function of predicted dental care demand, which will in turn be determined by the size and characteristics of our population size, economic outlook, the state of public and private dental care insurance, trends in dental care delivery, professionally determined dental care need, and population health beliefs. Projecting rates of dental care utilization far into the future is difficult because projections must be made using historical data, and established trends may not persist if there is structural change in the future. Nonetheless, when structural change occurs, it does not typically affect all aspects of the economy, so there is value in describing the likely future impact of current trends. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

Effect of Pediatric Behavioral Health Screening and Colocated Services on Ambulatory and Inpatient Utilization.

PubMed

Hacker, Karen A; Penfold, Robert B; Arsenault, Lisa N; Zhang, Fang; Soumerai, Stephen B; Wissow, Lawrence S

2015-11-01

The study sought to determine the impact of a pediatric behavioral health screening and colocation model on utilization of behavioral health care. In 2003, Cambridge Health Alliance, a Massachusetts public health system, introduced behavioral health screening and colocation of social workers sequentially within its pediatric practices. An interrupted time-series study was conducted to determine the impact on behavioral health care utilization in the 30 months after model implementation compared with the 18 months prior. Specifically, the change in trends of ambulatory, emergency, and inpatient behavioral health utilization was examined. Utilization data for 11,223 children ages ≥4 years 9 months to <18 years 3 months seen from 2003 to 2008 contributed to the study. In the 30 months after implementation of pediatric behavioral health screening and colocation, there was a 20.4% cumulative increase in specialty behavioral health visit rates (trend of .013% per month, p=.049) and a 67.7% cumulative increase in behavioral health primary care visit rates (trend of .019% per month, p<.001) compared with the expected rates predicted by the 18-month preintervention trend. In addition, behavioral health emergency department visit rates increased 245% compared with the expected rate (trend .01% per month, p=.002). After the implementation of a behavioral health screening and colocation model, more children received behavioral health treatment. Contrary to expectations, behavioral health emergency department visits also increased. Further study is needed to determine whether this is an effect of how care was organized for children newly engaged in behavioral health care or a reflection of secular trends in behavioral health utilization or both.

Changing mortality patterns in East and West Germany and Poland. II: Short-term trends during transition and in the 1990s

PubMed Central

Nolte, E.; Shkolnikov, V.; McKee, M.

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES—To examine trends in life expectancy at birth and age and cause specific patterns of mortality in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Poland during political transition and throughout the 1990s in both parts of Germany and in Poland.
METHODS—Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death. Changes in life expectancy during transition by cause of death were examined using data for 1988/89 and 1990/91 for the former GDR and Poland; examination of life expectancy changes after transition were based on 1992-97 data for Germany and 1991-96 data for Poland.
RESULTS—In both the former GDR and Poland male life expectancy at birth declined by almost one year during transition, mainly attributable to rising death rates from external causes and circulatory diseases. Female life expectancy in Poland deteriorated by 0.3 years, largely attributable to increasing circulatory mortality among the old, while in East German female rising death rates in children and young adults were nearly outbalanced by declining circulatory mortality among those over 70. Between 1991/92 and 1996/97, male life expectancy at birth increased by 2.4 years in the former GDR, 1.2 years in old Federal Republic, and 2.0 years in Poland (women: 2.3, 0.9, and 1.2 years). In East Germany and Poland, the overall improvement was largely attributable to falling mortality among men aged 40-64, while those over 65 contributed the largest proportion to life expectancy gains in women. The change in deaths among men aged 15-39 accounted for 0.4 of a year to life expectancy at birth in East Germany and Poland, attributable largely to greater decreases from external causes. Among those over 40, absolute contributions to changing life expectancy were greater in the former GDR than in the other two entities in both sexes, largely attributable to circulatory diseases. A persisting East-west life expectancy gap in Germany of 2.1 years in men in 1997 was largely attributable to external causes, diseases of the digestive system and circulatory diseases. Higher death rates from circulatory diseases among the elderly largely explain the female life expectancy gap of approximately one year.
CONCLUSIONS—This study provides further insights into the health effects of political transition. Post-transition improvements in life expectancy and mortality have been much steeper in East Germany compared with Poland. Changes in dietary pattern and, in Germany, medical care may have been important factors in shaping post-transition mortality trends. 


Keywords: mortality trends; Germany; Poland; transition PMID:11076985

Current Perception of Telemedicine in an EU Country

PubMed Central

POENARU, Calin; POENARU, Elena; VINEREANU, Dragos

2014-01-01

Objectives: To assess the perception and expectation of beneficiaries and providers of telemedicine services in Romania. Methods: Interview (on-line and face-to-face) of 109 representatives of medical community, from two categories: physicians, involved directly in the patient care, and medical and information technology directors of state and private owned clinics and hospitals. A third group, formed by executives from main technology service provider companies, was added in order to expand the results with their vision as potential suppliers of telemedicine projects. Outcomes: We evaluated 4 important aspects of telemedicine: actual status of the services, development efforts and allocated budget, expected future services, and stoppers and enablers. On the actual status we identified in 48% of the cases the existence of core services good enough to start advanced telemedicine services. We developed a metric (SOR = Supporter/Opponents Ratio) to evaluate the suitability of telemedicine services to evolve and to deliver on expectations. The analysis shows that physicians see potential for development for EHR and PACS (both with SOR >25), but the executives start looking forward to more advanced services like remote patient monitoring. Main impact is expected in collaboration and patient quality life areas and, by far, the main stoppers are reduced budgets and organizational problems to adapt to the new data models. Conclusions: We identified a strong support from the physicians related with the introduction of new type of healthcare services accompanied with high expectations. On the executive level, the expectations are different, ranging from low optimism on the technology side, to serious support on the medical side. However, there is a clear trend, able to create the first telemedicine services during the next years. PMID:25705307

Is the risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia declining?

PubMed

Langa, Kenneth M

2015-01-01

The number of older adults with dementia will increase around the world in the decades ahead as populations age. Current estimates suggest that about 4.2 million adults in the US have dementia and that the attributable economic cost of their care is about $200 billion per year. The worldwide dementia prevalence is estimated at 44.3 million people and the total cost at $604 billion per year. It is expected that the worldwide prevalence will triple to 135.5 million by 2050. However, a number of recent population-based studies from countries around the world suggest that the age-specific risk of dementia may be declining, which could help moderate the expected increase in dementia cases that will accompany the growing number of older adults. At least nine recent population-based studies of dementia incidence or prevalence have shown a declining age-specific risk in the US, England, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. A number of factors, especially rising levels of education and more aggressive treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, may be leading to improving 'brain health' and declining age-specific risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia in countries around the world. Multiple epidemiological studies from around the world suggest an optimistic trend of declining population dementia risk in high-income countries over the past 25 years. Rising levels of education and more widespread and successful treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors may be the driving factors accounting for this decline in dementia risk. Whether this optimistic trend will continue in the face of rising worldwide levels of obesity and diabetes and whether this trend is also occurring in low- and middle-income countries are key unanswered questions which will have enormous implications for the extent of the future worldwide impact of Alzheimer's disease and dementia on patients, families, and societies in the decades ahead.

Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

2017-03-01

Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future fires highly challenging.

The Past as a Window to the Future - What Does Long Term Research in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica Tell Us About the Trajectory of Polar Ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooseff, M. N.; Adams, B.; Barrett, J. E.; Doran, P. T.; Fountain, A. G.; Lyons, W. B.; McKnight, D. M.; Takacs-Vesbach, C. D.; Priscu, J. C.; Sokol, E.; Virginia, R. A.; Wall, D. H.

2015-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica represent the largest ice-free area of the continent. The landscape is dominated by glaciers, exposed soils, streams, and ice-covered lakes, and hosts an incredible ecosystem that is largely driven by microbes and some invertebrates. Given the low air temperatures (-18C annual mean), little precipitation (<10 cm water equivalent/yr), and lack of vegetation cover, the Dry Valleys ecosystem is strongly influenced by physical processes. In the past two decades, summer conditions have been observed to fluctuate significantly. From 1986-2001, the area experienced a cooling trend and the ecosystem responded with decreasing soil invertebrate populations, decreased streamflow, decreased primary productivity in lakes, and decreased algal biomass in streams. Since 2001, 3 very high glacial melt years have occurred producing record stream flows and extensive wetted soils. During this most recent decade, the levels of closed-basin lakes have risen substantially, with increasing heat contents, and we have observed increased permafrost degradation along streambanks. Here we assess the ecosystem responses of the cooling 'press' that occurred from 1986-2001 and the more most recent decade that has had several strong pulses of energy driving the system to develop expectations for the future state and function of this polar desert ecosystem. We propose that the future trajectory of climate and energy input to the region will likely be more inconsistent than the cooling period was. Hence, the ecosystem will be consistently responding to pulses of change over varying time periods. We also expect that recovery of the ozone layer over Antarctica may play an important role in modifying both regional climate and the Dry Valleys ecosystem.

Impacts of past and future climate change on wind energy resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaa, J. R.; Wood, A.; Eichelberger, S.; Westrick, K.

2009-12-01

The links between climate change and trends in wind energy resources have important potential implications for the wind energy industry, and have received significant attention in recent studies. We have conducted two studies that provide insights into the potential for climate change to affect future wind power production. In one experiment, we projected changes in power capacity for a hypothetical wind farm located near Kennewick, Washington, due to greenhouse gas-induced climate change, estimated using a set of regional climate model simulations. Our results show that the annual wind farm power capacity is projected to decrease 1.3% by 2050. In a wider study focusing on wind speed instead of power, we analyzed projected changes in wind speed from 14 different climate simulations that were performed in support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). Our results show that the predicted ensemble mean changes in annual mean wind speeds are expected to be modest. However, seasonal changes and changes predicted by individual models are large enough to affect the profitability of existing and future wind projects. The majority of the model simulations reveal that near-surface wind speed values are expected to shift poleward in response to the IPCC A2 emission scenario, particularly during the winter season. In the United States, most models agree that the mean annual wind speed values will increase in a region extending from the Great Lakes southward across the Midwest and into Texas. Decreased values, though, are predicted across most of the western United States. However, these predicted changes have a strong seasonal dependence, with wind speed increases over most of the United States during the winter and decreases over the northern United States during the summer.

Topics in Chemical Instrumentation: An Introduction to Supercritical Fluid Chromatography--Part 2. Applications and Future Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmieri, Margo D.

1989-01-01

Discussed are selected application and future trends in supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC). The greatest application for SFC involves those analytes that are difficult to separate using GC or LC methods. Optimum conditions for SFC are examined. Provided are several example chromatograms. (MVL)

Health Policy and the Economy: Guessing about the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helms, Robert B.

1989-01-01

This paper looks at demographic and financial trends that can have an effect on the health care sector, the government reliance on projections of budget expenditures and the current budget deficit, and trends in health care expenditures and effects on the future of Social Security and Medicare. (MLW)

Financial Management of Libraries: Past Trends and Future Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Stephen A.

2003-01-01

The financial environment within library and information services is reviewed and a structure for financial management is presented based on funding source and level of commercial activity. Objectives for financial management of library and information services is developed and reviewed in light of future trends and stakeholder perspectives.…

Libraries and the Chief Information Officer: Implications and Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodsworth, Anne

1988-01-01

Describes the roles and responsibilities of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) in research universities and presents five models of the position. Future trends and needs for management of converging information technologies are then discussed with attention to implications for libraries. Qualifications of the CIO and the future outlook of the…

Future Trends in the Kinesiology Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knudson, Duane

2016-01-01

Kinesiology emerged from its preventative medicine and education roots to establish itself as a recognized field of inquiry with numerous sub-disciplines. This article presents four trends in modern science that will likely influence the future of kinesiology sciences. Will recent increases in greater scientific specialization be overcome by the…

Trends in lung cancer incidence in Sweden with special reference to period and birth cohorts.

PubMed

Myrdal, G; Lambe, M; Bergström, R; Ekbom, A; Wagenius, G; Ståhle, E

2001-08-01

Sweden has one of the largest population-based cancer registers in the world that provides an opportunity to examine the trend of lung cancer incidence during a 35-year period. The primary aim of the present study was to estimate the effects of birth cohort, year of diagnosis (period), and age on the time trends of lung cancer incidence rates, and to analyze the gender-specific incidence of different histopathological types of lung cancer. Among men the age-standardized incidence rate increased steadily up to 1982, when a peak of 49 cases per 100,000 person-years was reached. Among women the incidence rate was lower and showed a monotonic increase throughout the observation period. The fastest rate of increase was noted among the youngest women. In women, but not in men, there was a steady increase in risk with each successive birth cohort. For both sexes there were large changes in the histopathological distributions of cases. The most notable was a major increase in adenocarcinomas. The overall age-adjusted incidence rate of lung cancer in Sweden has stabilized in men during the past two decades while rates are still increasing in women. In view of the continued high prevalence of smoking among young women, a future definite increase in the overall number of lung cancer cases in women can be expected.

Identifying potential effects of climate change on the development of water resources in Pinios River Basin, Central Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arampatzis, G.; Panagopoulos, A.; Pisinaras, V.; Tziritis, E.; Wendland, F.

2018-05-01

The aim of the present study is to assess the future spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature, and relate the corresponding change to water resources' quantitative status in Pinios River Basin (PRB), Thessaly, Greece. For this purpose, data from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the periods 2021-2100 driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs) were collected and bias-correction was performed based on linear scaling method. The bias-correction was made based on monthly precipitation and temperature data collected for the period 1981-2000 from 57 meteorological stations in total. The results indicate a general trend according to which precipitation is decreasing whilst temperature is increasing to an extent that varies depending on each particular RCM-GCM output. On the average, annual precipitation change for the period 2021-2100 was about - 80 mm, ranging between - 149 and + 35 mm, while the corresponding change for temperature was 2.81 °C, ranging between 1.48 and 3.72 °C. The investigation of potential impacts to the water resources demonstrates that water availability is expected to be significantly decreased in the already water-stressed PRB. The water stresses identified are related to the potential decreasing trend in groundwater recharge and the increasing trend in irrigation demand, which constitutes the major water consumer in PRB.

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.

2013-01-01

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Variability of differences between two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage, including effects of time trends, Lower Arkansas River Basin, southeastern Colorado, 1998-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.; Edelmann, Patrick; Dash, Russell G.

2005-01-01

In the mid-1990s, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted rules governing measurement of tributary ground-water pumpage for the Arkansas River Basin. The rules allowed ground-water pumpage to be determined using one of two approaches?power conversion coefficient (PCC) or totalizing flowmeters (TFM). In addition, the rules allowed a PCC to be applied to the electrical power usage up to 4 years in the future to estimate ground-water pumpage. As a result of concerns about potential errors in applying the PCC approach forward in time, a study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with CDWR and Colorado Water Conservation Board, to evaluate the variability in differences in pumpage between the two approaches, including the effects of time trends. This report compared measured ground-water pumpage using TFMs to computed ground-water pumpage using PCCs by developing statistical models of relations between explanatory variables, such as site, time, and pumping water level, and dependent variables, which are based on discharge, PCC, and pumpage. When differences in pumpage (diffP) were computed using PCC measurements and power consumption for the same year (1998-2002), the median diffP, depending on the year, ranged from +0.1 to -2.9 percent; the median diffP for the entire period was -1.5 percent. However, when diffP was computed using PCC measurements applied to the next year's power consumption, the median diffP was -0.3 percent; and when PCC measurements were applied 2, 3, or 4 years into the future, median diffPs were +1.8 percent for a 2-year forward lag and +5.3 percent for a 4-year forward lag, indicating that pumpage computed with the PCC approach, as generally applied under the ground-water pumpage measurement rules by CDWR, tended to overestimate pumpage as compared to pumpage using TFMs when PCC measurement was applied to future years of measured power consumption. Analyses were done to better understand the causes of the time trend; an estimate of the overall trend with time (uncorrected for pumping water-level changes) yielded a trend of about 2.2 percent per lag year for diffP. A separate analysis that incorporated a surface-water diversion term in the statistical model rendered the time-trend term insignificant, indicating that the time trend in the models served as a surrogate for other variables, some of which reflect underlying hydrologic conditions. A more precise explanation of the potential causes of the time trend was not obtained with the available data. However, the model results with the surface-water diversion term indicate that much of the trend of 2.2 percent per lag year in diffP resulted from applying a PCC to estimate pumpage under hydrologic conditions different from those under which the PCC was measured. Although there is no evidence to conclude that the upward time trend determined in the data for this 5-year period would hold in the future, historical static ground-water levels in the study area generally have exhibited small variations over multidecadal time scales. Therefore, the approximately 2 percent per lag year trend determined in these data is expected to be a reasonable guideline for estimating potential errors in the PCC approach resulting from temporally varying hydrologic conditions between time of PCC measurement and pumpage estimation. Comparisons also were made between total, or aggregated, pumpage for a network of wells as computed by the PCC approach and the TFM approach. For 100 wells and a lag of 4 years between PCC measurement and pumpage estimation, there was a 95-percent probability that the difference between total network pumpage measured by the PCC approach and that measured using a TFM would be between 5.2 and 14.4 percent. These estimates were based on a bias of 2.2 percent per lag year estimated for the period 1998-2002 during which hydrologic conditions were known to have changed. Using the same assumptions, the estimated d

Trends Important to the California Community Colleges. A Technical Paper for the 2005 Task Force of the Chancellor's Consultation Council.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntyre, Chuck

Demographic, economic, and social trends were examined in order to assist the 2005 Task Force of the Chancellor's Consultation Council develop strategies to address expected changes California will undergo between 1997 and 2005. Arranged by five categories, the trends most important to community colleges appeared to be: (1) demographic: emerging…

AGING & HEALTH Expectations About Future Use Of Long-Term Services And Supports Vary By CurrentLiving Arrangement

PubMed Central

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Shippee, Tetyana

2014-01-01

Most Americans know little about options for long-term services and supports and underestimate their likely future needs for such assistance. Using data from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey, we examined expectations about future use of long-term services and supports among adults ages 40–65 and how these expectations varied by current living arrangement. We found differences by living arrangement in expectations about both future need for long-term services and supports and who would provide such care if needed. Respondents living with minor children were the least likely to expect to need long-term services and supports and to require paid care if the need arose. In contrast, respondents living alone were the most likely to expect that it was “very likely” that they would need long-term services and supports and to rely on paid care. Overall, we found a disconnect between expectations of use and likely future reality: 60 percent of respondents believed that they were unlikely to need long-term services and supports in the future, whereas the evidence suggests that nearly 70 percent of older adults will need them at some point. These findings both underscore the need for programs that encourage people to plan for long-term services and supports and indicate that information about living arrangements can be useful in developing and targeting such programs. PMID:25561642

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

The Occupational Expectations of Undergraduate Students in the Conservatory Piano Majors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çevik Kiliç, Deniz Beste; Baltacilar Bayoglu, Talia Özlem; Güner Canbey, Ebru

2018-01-01

An expectation is the belief that a certain action will lead to a given outcome. It is noteworthy to reveal individuals' expectations from their future occupations. The quality and success of education are undoubtedly related to meeting their occupational expectations in the future. In this regard, it is of critical importance to investigate the…

Emerging trends in Chinese healthcare: the impact of a rising middle class.

PubMed

Chang, Joyce; Wood, David; Xiaofeng, Jia; Gifford, Blair

2008-01-01

In this report, the authors examine a major phenomenon in the Chinese healthcare marketplace: the explosion of a vigorous and demanding middle class and its impact on the future directions the industry should pursue. Little is known about the expectations of the middle class regarding their healthcare needs other than through anecdotal or informal sources. The views of the middle class are shaped by a variety of influences which include exposure through direct personal contact with international healthcare facilities when traveling abroad or indirectly through increased exposure to the entertainment industry with its abundance of hospital and medical dramas. In addition to a general increased international awareness arising from more advanced education, the perspective of the middle class consumer is also shaped by the reality of what is currently available in China and what is realistic to expect. This report addresses this lack of factual data through an extensive survey of middle class consumers in three major cities in China: Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu. The survey took a practical and pragmatic approach to exploring this issue. No attempt was made in this study to explain why the consumer feels the way they do about their healthcare expectations. The purpose was simply to outline what expectations the middle class have for the healthcare marketplace in China. In some respects the results are not surprising. They are the expectations that people have in any country, any where. They expect greater privacy and dignity in the care-giving process. They want to be more involved in the decisions that are made regarding their care. They would prefer a personal, private physician as opposed to a revolving door of faces they will never see a second time. They rely strongly on family and friends to advise them on their choice of provider. They expect clean, well-maintained facilities, efficient systems and courteous personnel. In other respects, the conclusions are not necessarily expected. They feel strongly that their hospital or provider of care should be located in a residential area. They are willing in some circumstances to pay more for their care in order to meet their expectations but not significantly more. Despite acknowledging that many of the facets of care they seek such as greater respect for privacy and a generally perceived more positive attitude in the care-giving process are found in foreign physicians, middle class consumers do not express a strong preference for foreign physicians but opt instead for Chinese physicians. In conclusion, the results provide an insight into the expectations held by middle class Chinese of their healthcare providers and outlines a direction for future healthcare development.

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities.

PubMed

Anderson, G Brooke; Oleson, Keith W; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D

2018-02-01

Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario- going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.

Core-Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hultgren, Lennart S.

2010-01-01

This presentation is a technical progress report and near-term outlook for NASA-internal and NASA-sponsored external work on core (combustor and turbine) noise funded by the Fundamental Aeronautics Program Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) Project. Sections of the presentation cover: the SFW system level noise metrics for the 2015, 2020, and 2025 timeframes; the emerging importance of core noise and its relevance to the SFW Reduced-Noise-Aircraft Technical Challenge; the current research activities in the core-noise area, with some additional details given about the development of a high-fidelity combustion-noise prediction capability; the need for a core-noise diagnostic capability to generate benchmark data for validation of both high-fidelity work and improved models, as well as testing of future noise-reduction technologies; relevant existing core-noise tests using real engines and auxiliary power units; and examples of possible scenarios for a future diagnostic facility. The NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program has the principal objective of overcoming today's national challenges in air transportation. The SFW Reduced-Noise-Aircraft Technical Challenge aims to enable concepts and technologies to dramatically reduce the perceived aircraft noise outside of airport boundaries. This reduction of aircraft noise is critical for enabling the anticipated large increase in future air traffic. Noise generated in the jet engine core, by sources such as the compressor, combustor, and turbine, can be a significant contribution to the overall noise signature at low-power conditions, typical of approach flight. At high engine power during takeoff, jet and fan noise have traditionally dominated over core noise. However, current design trends and expected technological advances in engine-cycle design as well as noise-reduction methods are likely to reduce non-core noise even at engine-power points higher than approach. In addition, future low-emission combustor designs could increase the combustion-noise component. The trend towards high-power-density cores also means that the noise generated in the low-pressure turbine will likely increase. Consequently, the combined result from these emerging changes will be to elevate the overall importance of turbomachinery core noise, which will need to be addressed in order to meet future noise goals.

COMPANION ANIMALS SYMPOSIUM: Future aspects and perceptions of companion animal nutrition and sustainability.

PubMed

Deng, P; Swanson, K S

2015-03-01

Companion animals play an important role in our lives and are now considered to be and treated as family members in a majority of households in the United States. Because of the high number of pets that now exist, an increasingly stronger pet-human bond, and the importance placed on health and longevity, the pet food industry has realized steady growth over the last few decades. Despite past successes and opportunities that exist in the future, there are also challenges that must be considered. This review will present a brief overview of the current pet food industry and address some of the key issues moving forward. In regards to companion animal research, recent advances and future needs in the areas of canine and feline metabolism, aging, clinical disease, and the gut microbiome using molecular and high-throughput assays; chemical, in vitro, and in vivo testing of feed ingredients; and innovative pet food processing methods is discussed. Training the future workforce for the pet food industry is also of great importance. Recent trends on student demographics and their species and careers of interest, changing animal science department curricula, and technology's impact on instruction are provided. Finally, the sustainability of the pet food industry is discussed. Focus was primarily placed on the disconnect that exists between opinions and trends of consumers and the nutrient recommendations for dogs and cats, the desire for increasing use of animal-based and human-grade products, the overfeeding of pets and the pet obesity crisis, and the issues that involve the evaluation of primary vs. secondary products in terms of sustainability. Moving forward, the pet food industry will need to anticipate and address challenges that arise, especially those pertaining to consumer expectations, the regulatory environment, and sustainability. Given the already strong and increasingly dynamic market for pet foods and supplies, an academic environment primed to supply a skilled workforce, and continued industry support for basic and applied research initiatives, the future of the pet food industry looks very bright.

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology - a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-03-01

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971-2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021-2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes - that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists' demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Service robotics: an emergent technology field at the interface between industry and services.

PubMed

Ott, Ingrid

2012-12-01

The paper at hand analyzes the economic implications of service robots as expected important future technology. The considerations are embedded into global trends, focusing on the interdependencies between services and industry not only in the context of the provision of services but already starting at the level of the innovation process. It is argued that due to the various interdependencies combined with heterogenous application fields, the resulting implications need to be contextualized. Concerning the net labor market effects, it is reasonable to assume that the field of service robotics will generate overall job creation that goes along with increasing skill requirements demanded from involved employees. It is analyzed which challenges arise in evaluating and further developing the new technology field and some policy recommendations are given.

Single-Cell Microgels: Technology, Challenges, and Applications.

PubMed

Kamperman, Tom; Karperien, Marcel; Le Gac, Séverine; Leijten, Jeroen

2018-04-12

Single-cell-laden microgels effectively act as the engineered counterpart of the smallest living building block of life: a cell within its pericellular matrix. Recent breakthroughs have enabled the encapsulation of single cells in sub-100-μm microgels to provide physiologically relevant microniches with minimal mass transport limitations and favorable pharmacokinetic properties. Single-cell-laden microgels offer additional unprecedented advantages, including facile manipulation, culture, and analysis of individual cell within 3D microenvironments. Therefore, single-cell microgel technology is expected to be instrumental in many life science applications, including pharmacological screenings, regenerative medicine, and fundamental biological research. In this review, we discuss the latest trends, technical challenges, and breakthroughs, and present our vision of the future of single-cell microgel technology and its applications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consolidation & Factors Influencing Sintering Process in Polymer Powder Based Additive Manufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagar, M. B.; Elangovan, K.

2017-08-01

Additive Manufacturing (AM) is two decade old technology; where parts are build layer manufacturing method directly from a CAD template. Over the years, AM techniques changes the future way of part fabrication with enhanced intricacy and custom-made features are aimed. Commercially polymers, metals, ceramic and metal-polymer composites are in practice where polymers enhanced the expectations in AM and are considered as a kind of next industrial revolution. Growing trend in polymer application motivated to study their feasibility and properties. Laser sintering, Heat sintering and Inhibition sintering are the most successful AM techniques for polymers but having least application. The presentation gives up selective sintering of powder polymers and listed commercially available polymer materials. Important significant factors for effective processing and analytical approaches to access them are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodel, D.P.

Energy Secretary Donald P. Hodel told participants at the 4th International Oil conference in London that no one really knows the future demand for oil or whether oil prices will be $29 or $80 per barrel. DOE and consumption-based forecasts do little more than indicate trends, such as the effort by industrial countries to reduce their dependence on oil and achieve a more balanced energy supply. The current OPEC prices indicate that market forces do seek equilibrium, but there is no guarantee that producing nations will not overproduce or seek new markets through price competition. Hodel projects that oil usemore » will go down in industrial countries and increase in developing countries. He anticipates few new supplies of low-cost oil, but expects new developments in renewable energy sources by the year 2000.« less

Havens: Explicit Reliable Memory Regions for HPC Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hukerikar, Saurabh; Engelmann, Christian

2016-01-01

Supporting error resilience in future exascale-class supercomputing systems is a critical challenge. Due to transistor scaling trends and increasing memory density, scientific simulations are expected to experience more interruptions caused by transient errors in the system memory. Existing hardware-based detection and recovery techniques will be inadequate to manage the presence of high memory fault rates. In this paper we propose a partial memory protection scheme based on region-based memory management. We define the concept of regions called havens that provide fault protection for program objects. We provide reliability for the regions through a software-based parity protection mechanism. Our approach enablesmore » critical program objects to be placed in these havens. The fault coverage provided by our approach is application agnostic, unlike algorithm-based fault tolerance techniques.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkerson, Andrea M.; Donohue, Amy; Davis, Robert G.

The article discusses trends in classroom design and then transitions to a discussion of the future of the classroom and how the lighting industry needs to be preparing to meet the needs of the future classroom. The OSU Classroom building as an example throughout, first discussing how trends in classroom design were incorporated into the Classroom Building and then discussing how future lighting systems could enhance the Classroom Building, which is a clear departure from the actual lighting design and current technology.

Long and happy living: Trends and patterns of happy life expectancy in the U.S., 1970–2000

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang

2013-01-01

This study assesses the trends and differentials in length of quality life in the U.S. population as measured by happy life expectancy in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000. The analysis combines age-specific prevalence rates of subjective well-being from a large nationally representative survey and life table estimates of mortality in decennial Census years. Employing the period prevalence-rate life table method—Sullivan method, the analysis finds evidence for improvement in quality of life in the U.S. Happy life expectancy largely increased in both absolute terms (number of years) and relative terms (proportion of life) over time at all adult ages examined. And increases in total life expectancy were mainly contributed by increases in expectancy in happy years rather than unhappy years. Happy life expectancy is longer than active life expectancy. And there has been greater compression of unhappiness than compression of morbidity. There are substantial differentials in happy life expectancy by sex and race because of differential prevalence rates of happiness. Women and whites had longer years of total and happy life expectancies at most ages and dates, while men and blacks had greater proportions of happy life expectancies across the three decades. Although race differentials generally decreased at older ages and with time, relative disadvantages of blacks persisted. PMID:19227700

Future trends in the prevalence of severe activity limitations among older adults in Europe: a cross-national population study using EU-SILC

PubMed Central

Scherbov, Sergei; Weber, Daniela

2017-01-01

Objective To project the proportion of population 65+ years with severe long-term activity limitations from 2017 to 2047. Design Large population study. Setting Population living in private households of the European Union (EU) and neighbouring countries. Participants Participants from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions aged 55 years and older and living in one of 26 EU and neighbouring countries, who answered the health section of the questionnaire. Outcome measures Prevalence of severe long-term activity limitations of particular subpopulations (ie, 55+, 65+, 75+ and 85+ years) by sex and country. Results We find a huge variation in the prevalence of self-reported severe long-term limitations across Europe for both sexes. However, in 2017, about 20% of the female population aged 65 years and above and about 16% of their male counterparts are expected to report severe long-term activity limitations after accounting for differences in reporting. Accounting for cultural differences in reporting, we expect that European countries will have about 21% (decile 1: 19.5%; decile 9: 22.9%) of female and about 16.8% (decile 1: 15.4%; decile 9: 18.1%) of male 65+ years population with severe long-term activity limitations by 2047. Conclusions Overall, despite the expected increase of life expectancy in European countries, our results suggest almost constant shares of older adults with severe long-term activity limitations within the next 30 years. PMID:29061570

Longevity expectations in the pension fund, insurance, and employee benefits industries

PubMed Central

Zhavoronkov, Alex

2015-01-01

Considerable progress has been made in many areas of biomedical science since the 1960s, suggesting likely increases in life expectancy and decreases in morbidity and mortality in the adult population. These changes may pose substantial risks to the pensions and benefits industries. While there is no significant statistical evidence demonstrating rapid decreases in mortality rates, there are conflicting opinions among demographers and biogerontologists on the biological limits of the human lifespan and trends in life expectancy. We administered a survey of the International Employee Benefits Association (IEBA), a large, international industry group. Industry professionals employed by consulting (35%), insurance (24%), pension (14%), and other (27%) companies responded to 32 questions. Respondents showed reasonably conservative views on the future of longevity and retirement, including that for women. The respondents formed their personal longevity expectations based on their family history and, to a lesser degree, on the actuarial life tables. Most of the sample expressed no desire to life past age 100 years, even if the enabling technologies required to maintain a healthy youthful state were available, and only a few respondents in the sample expressed a desire to live for the maximum period (at least) offered by the survey question. The majority of the respondents would not undergo any invasive procedures, and only 56% of the respondents would opt for noninvasive therapies to extend their healthy lifespans to 150 years of age if these were available. PMID:25653568

Trends in obesity and diabetes prevalence in a Chilean urban population: 1993-2001.

PubMed

Cuevas, Ada; Molina, Alfredo; Rigotti, Attilio; Miquel, Juan Francisco; Marshall, Guillermo; Reyes, Soledad; Nervi, Flavio

2008-09-01

In recent years, the Chilean population has suffered significant lifestyle changes associated with the rapid socioeconomic development of the country. These changes can induce a significant increase in the prevalence of some chronic diseases, such as obesity, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus. We aimed to assess diabetes mellitus, obesity, and hypercholesterolemia trends in a Chilean urban population followed between 1993 and 2001. A total of 1584 adults, living in Santiago, the capital of Chile, were randomly enrolled in a cross-sectional epidemiologic study in 1993. The same population was re-evaluated in 2001, recruiting 964 individuals from the original sample. Prevalences of diabetes mellitus, obesity, and hypercholesterolemia were determined according to standard criteria. We tested the significance of the differences between the observed prevalence of diabetes mellitus, obesity, and hypercholesterolemia in the 964 subjects evaluated in 2001 compared with the expected prevalence according to population aging based in data from 1993. In 1993, 3.8% of the sample population had diabetes mellitus, 21.8% had obesity, and 37.3 % exhibited hypercholesterolemia. In 2001, the observed prevalence of diabetes mellitus, obesity, and hypercholesterolemia was 10.1%, 32%, and 58%, respectively. The latter percentages were significantly higher than the expected prevalence according to the aging of the population (6.5% for diabetes mellitus, 27.7% for obesity, and 47.7 for hypercholesteromia). Our findings indicate that Chilean population has suffered an accelerated increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus, obesity, and hypercholesterolemia, due to the ongoing epidemiological transition that will lead to an enormous public health burden in the near future.

Improving Pediatric Preparedness in Critical Access Hospital Emergency Departments: Impact of a Longitudinal In Situ Simulation Program.

PubMed

Katznelson, Jessica H; Wang, Jiangxia; Stevens, Martha W; Mills, William A

2018-01-01

Critical access hospitals (CAH) see few pediatric patients. Many of these hospitals do not have access to physicians with pediatric training. We sought to evaluate the impact of an in situ pediatric simulation program in the CAH emergency department setting on care team performance during resuscitation scenarios. Five CAHs conducted 6 high-fidelity pediatric simulations over a 12-month period. Team performance was evaluated using a validated 35-item checklist representing commonly expected resuscitation team interventions. Checklists were scored by assigning zero point for "yes" and 1 point for "no". A lower final score meant more items on the list had been completed. The Kruskal-Wallis rank test was used to assess for differences in average scores among institutions. A linear mixed effects model with a random institution intercept was used to examine trends in average scores over time. P < 0.05 was considered significant. The Kruskal-Wallis rank test showed no difference in average scores among institutions. (P = 0.90). Checklist scores showed a significant downward trend over time, with a scenario-to-scenario decrease of 0.022 (P < 0.01). One hundred percent of providers surveyed in the last month stated they would benefit from ongoing scenarios. Regularly scheduled pediatric simulations in the CAH emergency department setting improved team performance over time on expected resuscitation tasks. The program was accepted by providers. Implementation of simulation-based training programs can help address concerns regarding pediatric preparedness in the CAH setting. A future project will look at the impact of the program on patient care and safety.

Trends in Female Breast Cancer by Age Group in the Chiang Mai Population

PubMed Central

Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

2017-01-01

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. PMID:28612595

Breast Cancer Trend in Iran from 2000 to 2009 and Prediction till 2020 using a Trend Analysis Method.

PubMed

Zahmatkesh, Bibihajar; Keramat, Afsaneh; Alavi, Nasrinossadat; Khosravi, Ahmad; Kousha, Ahmad; Motlagh, Ali Ghanbari; Darman, Mahboobeh; Partovipour, Elham; Chaman, Reza

2016-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide with a rising incidence rate in most countries. Considering the increase in life expectancy and change in lifestyle of Iranian women, this study investigated the age-adjusted trend of breast cancer incidence during 2000-2009 and predicted its incidence to 2020. The 1997 and 2006 census results were used for the projection of female population by age through the cohort-component method over the studied years. Data from the Iranian cancer registration system were used to calculate the annual incidence rate of breast cancer. The age-adjusted incidence rate was then calculated using the WHO standard population distribution. The five-year-age-specific incidence rates were also obtained for each year and future incidence was determined using the trend analysis method. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated through the joinpoint regression method. The bias adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer increased from 16.7 per 100,000 women in 2000 to 33.6 per 100,000 women in 2009. The incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend in almost all age groups above 30 years over the studied years. In this period, the age groups of 45-65 years had the highest incidence. Investigation into the joinpoint curve showed that the curve had a steep slope with an APC of 23.4% before the first joinpoint, but became milder after this. From 2005 to 2009, the APC was calculated as 2.7%, through which the incidence of breast cancer in 2020 was predicted as 63.0 per 100,000 women. The age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer continues to increas in Iranian women. It is predicted that this trend will continue until 2020. Therefore, it seems necessary to prioritize the prevention, control and care for breast cancer in Iran.

Opposite trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes in Spain (1991-2020).

PubMed

Fu, Marcela; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M; Clèries, Ramon; Villalbí, Joan R; Daynard, Richard A; Connolly, Gregory N; Fernández, Esteve

2014-12-10

The aim of this study is to describe trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes between 1991 and 2012 in Spain, and to project these trends up to 2020. We estimated daily consumption per capita during 1991-2012 using data on sales of manufactured cigarettes (20-packs) and rolling tobacco (kg) from the Tobacco Market Commission, and using data of the Spanish adult population from the National Statistics Institute. We considered different weights (0.5, 0.8 and 1 g) to compute the number of rolled cigarettes per capita. We computed the annual per cent of change and assessed possible changes in trends using joinpoint regression, and projected the consumption up to 2020 using Bayesian methods. Daily consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes decreased on average by 3.0% per year in 1991-2012, from 7.6 to 3.8 units, with three trend changes. However, daily consumption per capita of roll-your-own cigarettes increased on average by 14.1% per year, from 0.07 to 0.92 units of 0.5 g, with unchanged trends. Together, daily consumption per capita decreased between 2.9% and 2.5%, depending on the weight of the roll-your-own cigarettes. Projections up to 2020 indicate a decrease of manufactured cigarettes (1.75 units per capita) but an increase of roll-your-own cigarettes (1.25 units per capita). While the consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes has decreased in the past years in Spain, the consumption of roll-your-own cigarettes has increased at an annual rate around 14% over the past years. Whereas a net decrease in cigarette consumption is expected in the future, use of roll-your-own cigarettes will continue to increase. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Trends in initial management of prostate cancer in New Hampshire.

PubMed

Ingimarsson, Johann P; Celaya, Maria O; Laviolette, Michael; Rees, Judy R; Hyams, Elias S

2015-06-01

Prostate cancer management strategies are evolving with increased understanding of the disease. Specifically, there is emerging evidence that "low-risk" cancer is best treated with observation, while localized "high-risk" cancer requires aggressive curative therapy. In this study, we evaluated trends in management of prostate cancer in New Hampshire to determine adherence to evidence-based practice. From the New Hampshire State Cancer Registry, cases of clinically localized prostate cancer diagnosed in 2004-2011 were identified and classified according to D'Amico criteria. Initial treatment modality was recorded as surgery, radiation therapy, expectant management, or hormone therapy. Temporal trends were assessed by Chi-square for trend. Of 6,203 clinically localized prostate cancers meeting inclusion criteria, 34, 30, and 28% were low-, intermediate-, and high-risk disease, respectively. For low-risk disease, use of expectant management (17-42%, p < 0.001) and surgery (29-39%, p < 0.001) increased, while use of radiation therapy decreased (49-19 %, p < 0.001). For intermediate-risk disease, use of surgery increased (24-50%, p < 0.001), while radiation decreased (58-34%, p < 0.001). Hormonal therapy alone was rarely used for low- and intermediate-risk disease. For high-risk patients, surgery increased (38-47%, p = 0.003) and radiation decreased (41-38%, p = 0.026), while hormonal therapy and expectant management remained stable. There are encouraging trends in the management of clinically localized prostate cancer in New Hampshire, including less aggressive treatment of low-risk cancer and increasing surgical treatment of high-risk disease.

The Kuznets process in Malaysia.

PubMed

Randolph, S

1990-10-01

This study looks at how the Kuznets process, the structural determinants of the aggregate inequality trend during the course of economic development, is transpiring in Malaysia. A time-series test of Kuznets's hypothesis concerning the trend in participation income in the course of economic growth and its underlying structural components is conducted using data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey. The study covers the period 1968-76 during which the equalizing phase of growth was expected to take hold. Analysis determined that while many of the underlying processes which Kuznets speculated combined to generate the aggregate trend in participation income are at work in Malaysia, others are either absent or their phasing has been altered. The equalizing phase in the course of development has been delayed in arriving. Inequality in the nonagricultural sector exceeded that in the agricultural sector, and the wage gap which opened during the early phase of development declined with further development. These findings conform with Kuznets's expectations. Available time-series evidence from other currently developing countries suggests that inequality is typically higher in the nonagricultural sector during the early phase of development and that an increasing and subsequently decreasing between-sector wage gap is a broadly shared experience. This study's findings also support Kuznets's expectation that inequality within the agricultural sector can worsen in the face of dualistic agricultural development. Finally, Malaysia's trend in inequality within the nonagricultural sector exerted the greatest influence upon the aggregate trend in inequality per Kuznets's hypothesis.

Some Future Software Engineering Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehm, Barry

This paper provides an update and extension of a 2006 paper, “Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes,” Systems Engineering, Spring 2006. Some of its challenges and opportunities are similar, such as the need to simultaneously achieve high levels of both agility and assurance. Others have emerged as increasingly important, such as the challenges of dealing with ultralarge volumes of data, with multicore chips, and with software as a service. The paper is organized around eight relatively surprise-free trends and two “wild cards” whose trends and implications are harder to foresee. The eight surprise-free trends are:

WW Physics at Future e{sup +}e{sup -} Linear Colliders

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barklow, Timothy L

Measurements of triple gauge boson couplings and strong electroweak symmetry breaking effects at future e{sup +}e{sup -} linear colliders are reviewed. The results expected from a future e{sup +}e{sup -} linear collider are compared with LHC expectations.

Future Trends in Education Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newitt, Jane, Ed.

These essays deal explicitly with the future of the public schools and implicitly with the problem of making responsible predictions. Following an introduction by Herman Kahn, the first two essays deal with the social and social policy context of the schools. B. Bruce-Briggs contrasts alternative long-term and current cultural trends. Jane Newitt,…

Two Views of Criminology and Criminal Justice: Definitions, Trends, and the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conrad, John P.; Myren, Richard A.

The question of whether criminology and criminal justice are distinct fields is addressed in two papers. Differences between criminology and criminal justice are delineated by emphasizing formal definitions of the field(s), occupational roles, contemporary educational trends, and future development. According to John P. Conrad, criminology is the…

Teacher literacy expectations for kindergarten children with cerebral palsy in special education.

PubMed

Peeters, Marieke; Verhoeven, Ludo; de Moor, Jan

2009-09-01

Teacher expectations are important for the literacy development of children. The goal of this study was to investigate to what extent teacher expectations for future literacy success at the end of elementary school differed for children with cerebral palsy (CP) as compared with peers without disabilities in kindergarten. In addition, we investigated to what extent teacher literacy expectations of children with CP were related to additional impairments such as speech, intellectual and physical impairments, and to the current level of emergent literacy skills. Forty-nine teachers of children with CP and 71 teachers of non-disabled children responded to the questionnaire. The results showed that teacher expectations for future reading and writing success of children with CP were lower (all P values are <0.001) but also of a different nature, as eight teachers had no idea what to expect for the future reading development, and 12 teachers did not know what to expect for the future writing development of the child with CP. Multiple regression analysis showed that teacher reading expectations could best be predicted by both intelligence and emergent literacy skills (P<0.001), whereas teacher writing skills could best be predicted by intelligence (P<0.001).

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Charmian M.; Dear, Keith B. G.; McMichael, Anthony J.

2014-07-01

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.

Nanotechnology Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

expected as new nanomaterial capabilities as well as new nanoscale-centric circuit architectures are developed. However, the emerging trend in IT-focused...was eventually achieved. Proceeding from LRS to HRS afterwards shows a similar trend : several pulses are needed to completely switch the device from...resulted in unstable switching behavior. Similar trends were observed by Vallee, et al. for HfOx-based devices in which the switching behavior for Pt TEs

Removing the tree-ring width biological trend using expected basal area increment

Treesearch

Franco Biondi; Fares Qeadan

2008-01-01

One of the main elements of dendrochronological standardization is the removal of the biological trend, i.e., the progressive decline of ring width along a cross-sectional radius that is mostly caused by the corresponding increase in stem diameter over time. A very common option for removing this biological trend is to fit a modified negative exponential curve to the...

Recruiting Trends 1987-88. A Study of 1,019 Businesses, Industries, Governmental Agencies, and Educational Institutions Employing New College Graduates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shingleton, John D.; Scheetz, L. Patrick

Information on job market trends for 1987-1988 college graduates is presented in narrative summaries and statistical tables. Attention is directed to trends in hiring, expected starting salaries, campus recruiting activities, and other related topics, based on a survey of a cross-section of 1,019 employers from business, industry, government, and…

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-09-17

To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Design Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Setting Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. Population People aged 15 or above. Main outcome measures Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. Results There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman’s rs=0.48). Conclusions After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss. PMID:24046155

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claggett, Peter; Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, S.J.; Bisland, C.

2004-01-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

PubMed

Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

2004-06-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

Adapting to climate variability and change: experiences from cereal-based farming in the central rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

2013-11-01

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions-the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers' perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers' perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.

Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences from Cereal-Based Farming in the Central Rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

2013-11-01

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions—the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers’ perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers’ perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.

Stargazing: Future Trends in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shields, Jeff

2001-01-01

Describes the trends in higher education predicted and discussed at a staff retreat of the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO). Trends include an evolving role for business officers, increasing enrollment, competition, and e-learning. (EV)

An Investigation of Senior Vocational School Students' Perceptions of the Future through Their Drawings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yukay Yuksel, Muge; Aksak, Meryem; Arican, Tugce; Bakan, Muhsin

2016-01-01

Problem Statement: Expectations/perceptions of the future are important concepts at every stage of life. However, these concepts become more important in adolescence, during which critical decisions about the future are made. Adolescents' expectations/perceptions of the future are vital from the perspectives of the families they live with, their…

Computational modeling of cardiac hemodynamics: Current status and future outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittal, Rajat; Seo, Jung Hee; Vedula, Vijay; Choi, Young J.; Liu, Hang; Huang, H. Howie; Jain, Saurabh; Younes, Laurent; Abraham, Theodore; George, Richard T.

2016-01-01

The proliferation of four-dimensional imaging technologies, increasing computational speeds, improved simulation algorithms, and the widespread availability of powerful computing platforms is enabling simulations of cardiac hemodynamics with unprecedented speed and fidelity. Since cardiovascular disease is intimately linked to cardiovascular hemodynamics, accurate assessment of the patient's hemodynamic state is critical for the diagnosis and treatment of heart disease. Unfortunately, while a variety of invasive and non-invasive approaches for measuring cardiac hemodynamics are in widespread use, they still only provide an incomplete picture of the hemodynamic state of a patient. In this context, computational modeling of cardiac hemodynamics presents as a powerful non-invasive modality that can fill this information gap, and significantly impact the diagnosis as well as the treatment of cardiac disease. This article reviews the current status of this field as well as the emerging trends and challenges in cardiovascular health, computing, modeling and simulation and that are expected to play a key role in its future development. Some recent advances in modeling and simulations of cardiac flow are described by using examples from our own work as well as the research of other groups.

Beyond the depleting model of parenting: narratives of childrearing and change.

PubMed

Silva, Jennifer M; Pugh, Allison J

2010-01-01

A great deal of scholarship investigates the effects of parenting on adults who parent. While existing literature has identified the ways in which parenting affects parents adversely, we argue that more attention needs to be paid to how having children may enhance parents’ lives. Thus, we draw upon twenty-four in-depth interviews with young parents in order to investigate this process. First, we identify five ways in which parents say caregiving has changed their worldviews, relationships, and expectations, leading them to 1) erect barriers, 2) aspire for more, 3) view parenthood as a second chance, 4) hew a new path, and 5) make connections. Second, we uncover two central metaphors that parents rely on to explain the effect that having responsibility for children has had on their lives: the child as witness and the child as tether. We also point to future areas of investigation, arguing that only with an adequate understanding of what parenting does to parents can we understand what changing trends in families and inequality hold for ourselves and our futures.

A bird's eye view on the use of electrospun nanofibrous scaffolds for bone tissue engineering: Current state-of-the-art, emerging directions and future trends.

PubMed

Rezvani, Zahra; Venugopal, Jayarama R; Urbanska, Aleksandra M; Mills, David K; Ramakrishna, Seeram; Mozafari, Masoud

2016-10-01

Tissue engineering aims to develop therapeutic products that utilize a combination of scaffolds with viable cell systems or responsive biomolecules derived from such cells, for the repair, restoration/regeneration of tissues. Here, the main goal is to enable the body to heal itself by the introduction of electrospun scaffolds, such that the body recognizes them as its own and in turn uses them to regenerate "neo-native" functional tissues. During the last decade, innovative nanofibrous scaffolds have attracted substantial interest in bone tissue engineering. The electrospinning process makes it possible to fabricate appropriate scaffolds for bone tissue engineering from different categories of nanobiomaterials having the ability of controlled delivery of drugs in the defective tissues. It is expected that with the progress in science and technology, better bone constructs will be proposed in the future. This review discusses the innovative approaches into electrospinning techniques for the fabrication of nanofibrous scaffolds for bone tissue engineering. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life-Course Transitions Among Adolescents With and Without Disabilities

PubMed Central

Shandra, Carrie L.

2015-01-01

Research on adolescents suggests that young people are able to form reasonable expectations about future life-course transitions—and that these expectations are predictive of future outcomes. However, less is known about how these expectations might vary for adolescents with disabilities, who might face additional challenges when transitioning to adulthood. The present study addresses this gap in the literature by using nationally representative data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) to suggest that young people's expectations about pregnancy, parenthood, education, and employment do vary according to disability status. Furthermore, disability status conditions the relationship between these expectations and their future outcomes. In general, adolescents with disabilities are more proficient in the prediction of educational outcomes than employment or pregnancy outcomes. However, their expectations about education are significantly lower—and expectations about teenage parenthood much higher—than those of adolescents without disabilities. PMID:25926707

Trend Damping: Under-Adjustment, Experimental Artifact, or Adaptation to Features of the Natural Environment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Nigel; Reimers, Stian

2013-01-01

People's forecasts from time series underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones. This trend damping may occur because (a) people anchor on the last data point and make insufficient adjustment to take the trend into account, (b) they adjust toward the average of the trends they have encountered within the…

Statistical analysis of temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorentzen, Torbjørn

2014-02-01

The paper analyzes sea temperature data sampled at Station-M in the Norwegian Sea. The data cover the period 1948-2010. The following questions are addressed: What type of stochastic process characterizes the temperature series? Are there any changes or patterns which indicate climate change? Are there any characteristics in the data which can be linked to the shrinking sea-ice in the Arctic area? Can the series be modeled consistently and applied in forecasting of the future sea temperature? The paper applies the following methods: Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for testing of unit-root and stationarity, ARIMA-models in univariate modeling, cointegration and error-correcting models are applied in estimating short- and long-term dynamics of non-stationary series, Granger-causality tests in analyzing the interaction pattern between the deep and upper layer temperatures, and simultaneous equation systems are applied in forecasting future temperature. The paper shows that temperature at 2000 m Granger-causes temperature at 150 m, and that the 2000 m series can represent an important information carrier of the long-term development of the sea temperature in the geographical area. Descriptive statistics shows that the temperature level has been on a positive trend since the beginning of the 1980s which is also measured in most of the oceans in the North Atlantic. The analysis shows that the temperature series are cointegrated which means they share the same long-term stochastic trend and they do not diverge too far from each other. The measured long-term temperature increase is one of the factors that can explain the shrinking summer sea-ice in the Arctic region. The analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the shrinking sea ice and the sea temperature at Station-M. The paper shows that the temperature forecasts are conditioned on the properties of the stochastic processes, causality pattern between the variables and specification of model, respectively. The estimated models forecast that temperature at 150 m is expected to increase by 0.018 °C per year, while deep water temperature at 2000 m is expected to increase between 0.0022 and 0.0024 °C per year.

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

PubMed Central

Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems. PMID:27362499

A New Tool for Exploring Climate Change Induced Range Shifts of Conifer Species in China

PubMed Central

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management. PMID:25268604

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

PubMed

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

2016-01-01

Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.

The effect of education on climate change risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; KC, S.; Jiang, L.; Fuchs, R.; Pachauri, S.; Ren, X.; Zhang, T.; Laidlaw, E.

2017-12-01

Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore climate change. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for the climate issue. Changes in the educational composition of the population may reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change impacts, reducing risks. However they may also have effects on energy use and land use, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and increase risks. The direction of the effect of education on emissions is itself ambiguous. On the one hand, improvements in education can be expected to lead to faster fertility decline and slower population growth which, all else equal, would be expected to reduce emissions. On the other hand, education can also be expected to lead to faster economic growth, which would tend to increase emissions, and also to changes in consumption patterns. We employ iPETS, an integrated assessment model that includes a multi-region model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on energy use and emissions on four world regions (China, India, Latin America, and Rest of Asia + Middle East) and therefore on climate. We also calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) for each region resulting from these scenarios, as an indicator of vulnerability to climate impacts. We find that the net effect of improved education is to increase emissions in the medium term driven primarily by increased labor productivity, but decrease emissions in the long term primarily as a result of slower population growth. At the same time, improved education positively affects all aspects of the HDI at all time horizons. Important caveats include the uncertainty in the effect of education on economic growth.

Manufacturing recombinant proteins in kg-ton quantities using animal cells in bioreactors.

PubMed

De Jesus, Maria; Wurm, Florian M

2011-06-01

Mammalian cells in bioreactors as production host are the focus of this review. We wish to briefly describe today's technical status and to highlight emerging trends in the manufacture of recombinant therapeutic proteins, focusing on Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells. CHO cells are the manufacturing host system of choice for more than 70% of protein pharmaceuticals on the market [21]. The current global capacity to grow mammalian cells in bioreactors stands at about 0.5 million liters, whereby the largest vessels can have a working volume of about 20,000l. We are focusing in this article on the upstream part of protein manufacturing. Over the past 25 years, volumetric yields for recombinant cell lines have increased about 20-fold mainly as the result of improvements in media and bioprocess design. Future yield increases are expected to come from improved gene delivery methods, from improved, possibly genetically modified host systems, and from further improved bioprocesses in bioreactors. Other emerging trends in protein manufacturing that are discussed include the use of disposal bioreactors and transient gene expression. We specifically highlight here current research in our own laboratories. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Widespread local chronic stressors in Caribbean coastal habitats

PubMed Central

Collin, Rachel; Bastidas, Carolina; Cróquer, Aldo; Gayle, Peter M. H.; Jordán-Dahlgren, Eric; Koltes, Karen; Oxenford, Hazel; Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Weil, Ernesto; Alemu, Jahson; Bone, David; Buchan, Kenneth C.; Creary Ford, Marcia; Escalante-Mancera, Edgar; Garzón-Ferreira, Jaime; Guzmán, Hector M.; Kjerfve, Björn; Klein, Eduardo; McCoy, Croy; Potts, Arthur C.; Ruíz-Rentería, Francisco; Smith, Struan R.; Tschirky, John; Cortés, Jorge

2017-01-01

Coastal ecosystems and the livelihoods they support are threatened by stressors acting at global and local scales. Here we used the data produced by the Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity program (CARICOMP), the longest, largest monitoring program in the wider Caribbean, to evidence local-scale (decreases in water quality) and global-scale (increases in temperature) stressors across the basin. Trend analyses showed that visibility decreased at 42% of the stations, indicating that local-scale chronic stressors are widespread. On the other hand, only 18% of the stations showed increases in water temperature that would be expected from global warming, partially reflecting the limits in detecting trends due to inherent natural variability of temperature data. Decreases in visibility were associated with increased human density. However, this link can be decoupled by environmental factors, with conditions that increase the flush of water, dampening the effects of human influence. Besides documenting environmental stressors throughout the basin, our results can be used to inform future monitoring programs, if the desire is to identify stations that provide early warning signals of anthropogenic impacts. All CARICOMP environmental data are now available, providing an invaluable baseline that can be used to strengthen research, conservation, and management of coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean basin. PMID:29261694

NEW TRAINING PARADIGM IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LeRoy Spayd Chief, Training Division NOAA/National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spayd, L. E.

2012-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) implemented a new Learning Management System (LMS) in June 2007 as part of a Department of Commerce (DOC)-wide Learning Center (CLC). One of the key goals of this LMS was to provide accessible, low-cost training to develop and sustain a world-class NOAA workforce. Five years of training records have been analyzed for trends and accomplishments have been summarized. The NWS leads the entire DOC in usage of this LMS. NWS workforce of 4500 employees complete over 50,000 courses per year and account for over 40% of DOC completions even though the NWS represents only 12% of the users. This paper will highlight the lessons learned in implementing training in a diverse and widespread organization. The paper will also highlight the critical role of management engagement in setting expectations for training and education which resulted in service improvements to the public. This paper also address future training trends as the NWS moves forward in implementing NOAA's Strategic Plan to make this country a WeatherReady Nation. A mix of how synchronous/asynchronous and classroom/on-line/hybrid learning options is explained.;

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

PubMed

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Population ageing in Lebanon: current status, future prospects and implications for policy.

PubMed Central

Sibai, Abla Mehio; Sen, Kasturi; Baydoun, May; Saxena, Prem

2004-01-01

During the past three decades, fast declines in fertility and mortality in Lebanon have created a compressed demographic transition, a growing trend towards survival into later life, and a larger proportion of elderly people in the population. Projections show that people aged 65 years and over are expected to constitute 10.2% of the population by 2025. Nevertheless, changes to the structure and composition of the population remain unmatched by any corresponding increase in support measures either through formal channels such as pension plans or through health or socioeconomic security measures such as the provision of subsidies for health care, home help or any form of nursing care. This means that an older person is forced to be dependent upon family support if it exists. We examine demographic trends of population ageing in Lebanon between 1970 and 1995 and provide projections until 2025. Variations in population ageing within the country are also considered. We also assess health care and social policy implications of demographic changes in the context of health and economic sector reforms initiated recently by the state, and explore their impact upon the expanding population of elderly people. PMID:15112011

U. S. Energy and Economic Growth, 1975--2010

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Allen, E. L.; Cooper, C. L.; Edmonds, F. C.; Edmonds, J. A.; Reister, D. B.; Weinberg, A. M.; Whittle, C. E.; Zelby, L. W.

1976-09-01

This study projects economic growth (GNP) and energy demand for the U.S. to the year 2010. The main finding is that both GNP and total energy demand are likely to grow significantly more slowly than has been assumed in most analyses of energy policy. Projections of energy, GNP, and electricity (total and per capita) are summarized, with electricity demand expected to grow more rapidly than total energy demand. Two scenarios designated ''high'' and ''low'' were developed in this study. However, even the ''high'' scenario, 126 quads (q; 1 q equals 10/sup 15/ Btu) in 2000, is much lower than most previous estimates. It is felt that this raises serious questions about fundamental energy and energy R and D policies which, generally, have been based on perceptions of more lavish energy futures. Although the aggregate demands and GNP are projected to increase rather modestly, the energy demands per capita and GNP per capita increase at rates comparable to or even higher than historic rates. The authors believe that the projections developed in this study represent a logical culmination of many trends toward lower growth. These trends have not yet been factored into the older energy projections upon which so much energy policy is based.

Ecological Growth Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bluszcz, Anna

2017-03-01

The trends of the society for the continuous growth, combined with the demographic changes, today have led to the important ecological problems on a global scale, which include, among others: the increased use of non-renewable natural resources, an increase of the greenhouse gas emissions, contamination of soil, water, air and the progressive degradation of ecosystems. In the face of such serious threats the global initiatives of all countries are important to limit the results of the excessive consumption. The aim of the article is to present the methods of measurement of the consumption level of natural resources by the societies and the examination of relationships between the level of development of the societies and the use of resources. The popular measure - the ecological footprint - was used as a measurement method for the consumption of the today's generations in relation to the regenerative possibilities of the natural environment. On the other hand, as the assessment method for the level of development of societies - the Human Development Index (HDI), including three basic areas: the life expectancy, GDP level per capita and education was used. The results of the research indicate that the current trend of the unlimited consumption of the highly developed countries takes place at the expense of the future generations.

A Delphi Investigation into Future Trends in E-Learning in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aharony, Noa; Bronstein, Jenny

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the views and opinions of e-learning experts regarding future trends in the e-learning arena. The Delphi technique was chosen as a method of study. This technique is an efficient and effective group communication process designed to systematically elicit judgments from experts in their selected area of…

The Present State and Future Trends of Blended Learning in Workplace Learning Settings across Five Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyong-Jee; Bonk, Curtis; Teng, Ya-Ting

2009-01-01

This article reports survey findings related to the current status and future trends of blended learning in workplace learning settings from diverse cultures. This particular survey was conducted of 674 training and human resource development professionals from five different countries, mostly from the Asia-Pacific region (i.e., China, South…

Future Directions of Management Science and Operations Management in Business School Curricula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Jack A.; Denton, James W.

2006-01-01

The fields of Management Science (MS) and Operations Management (OM) have co-existed in business school curricula for over a half century. This paper examines five trends that point toward a bright future for Operations Management in the business curriculum. These trends include an increasing emphasis on global competition, the growth of the…

A Look at the Future from the College Union and Activities Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benedict, Joseph H., Jr.

1984-01-01

Future societal trends and implications for the college union and student activities profession are considered. Ten major trends identified by John Naisbitt in his recent book "Megatrends" are used as focal points. Attention is directed to shifts from: an industrial society to an information society; forced technology to high tech/high touch; a…

Counseling in Malaysia: History, Current Status, and Future Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

See, Ching Mey; Ng, Kok-Mun

2010-01-01

This article presents an overview of the history of counseling in Malaysia, provides an update of its current status, and discusses some anticipated future trends for the profession in light of recent developments in the country. Counseling in Malaysia began with school guidance in the 1960s and has now achieved recognition as a profession in…

Digital Skills Acquisition: Future Trends among Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilliam, Brian K.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify future trends and barriers that will either facilitate or impede the narrowing of the digital skills divide among older adults during the next 10 years. Methodology: To address the research questions, this study used a modified version of the Delphi process using a panel of experts who…

Anticipating cascading change in forests: Seeking a deeper understanding of the future

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Mike Dockry; Stephen R. Shifley

2017-01-01

This study used a participatory group brainstorming process called the Futures Wheel to identify and evaluate the direct and higher-order implications of this trend: Central Hardwood forests lack age-class diversity and will uniformly grow old. Five 1st-order consequences of this trend were identified: continued significant decrease in early-successional forest,...

Echoes of the Past, Glimpses of the Future - Ongoing Trends in Assurance of EEE Parts for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sampson, Michael J.

2017-01-01

This presentation will review some past NASA presentations that had identified challenges and future trends in the assurance of Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts for spaceflight applications. It will contrast the concerns expressed in those presentations with the challenges of today and identify trends that give insight into the future. Common themes include the use of commercial parts, limited technical and physical resources, the pace of technology change and the difficulties in handling and testing individual parts as they become smaller and more complex. Some options for dealing with these challenges will be suggested to accommodate increasing numbers of smallsats, cubesats, constellations and other disruptive concepts, as space becomes more and more commercialized.

Mid-21st century projections of hydroclimate in Western Himalayas and Satluj River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-02-01

The Himalayan climate system is sensitive to global warming and climate change. Regional hydrology and the downstream water flow in the rivers of Himalayan origin may change due to variations in snow and glacier melt in the region. This study examines the mid-21st century climate projections over western Himalayas from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the global climate models used in the present analysis indicate that the study region would be warmer by mid-century. The temperature trends from all the models studied here are statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Multi-model ensemble spreads show that there are large differences among the models in their projections of future climate with spread in temperature ranging from about 1.5 °C to 5 °C over various areas of western Himalayas in all the seasons. Spread in precipitation projections lies between 0.3 and 1 mm/day in all the seasons. Major shift in the timing of evaporation maxima and minima is noticed. The GFDL_ESM2G model products have been downscaled to Satluj River basin using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model and impact of climate change on streamflow has been studied. The reduction of precipitation during JJAS is expected to be > 3-6 mm/day in RCP8.5 as compared to present climate. It is expected that precipitation amount shall increase over Satluj basin in future (mid-21st century) The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model has been used to simulate the Satluj streamflow for the present and future climate using GFDL_ESM2G precipitation and temperature data as well as the WRF model downscaled data. The computations using the global model data show that total annual discharge from Satluj will be less in future than that in present climate, especially in peak discharge season (JJAS). The SWAT model with downscaled output indicates that during winter and spring, more discharge shall occur in future (RCP8.5) in Satluj River.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 2: Identification of issues affecting intercity transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Papers on major issues and trends that affect the future of intercity transportation are presented. Specific areas covered include: political, social, technological, institutional, and economic mechanisms, the workings of which determine how future intercity transporation technologies will evolve and be put into service; the major issues of intercity transportation from the point of view of reform, including candidate transporation technologies; and technical analysis of trends affecting the evolution of intercity transportation technologies.

The Mobile Browsing Behaviors and Expectations of College-Bound High School Students. An E-Expectations Trend Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noel-Levitz, Inc, 2012

2012-01-01

The last decade marked a dramatic change in the college search experience as students flocked to the Internet as their primary tool for researching colleges. Institutions had to transform their recruitment efforts to keep up with the online demands and expectations of prospective students. The proliferation of smartphones is transforming the…

What Tomorrow May Bring: Trends in Technology and Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molebash, Philip E.

This paper analyzes trends in technology and how they relate to education and then extrapolates these trends in order to predict the future of technology and education. The paper examines how the trends of Moore's Law, the graphical user interface, telecommunications/networks and Metcalfe's Law, the Internet and the World Wide Web, technology…

Forecasting Social Trends as a Basis for Formulating Educational Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Arthur J.

The paper describes how information regarding future trends is collected and made available to educational policy makers. Focusing on educational implications of social and population trends, the paper is based on data derived from use of trend forecasting by educational policy makers in Florida and other southeastern states. The document is…

Reflections on the current and future roles of clinician-scientists.

PubMed

Baumal, Reuben; Benbassat, Jochanan; Van, Julie A D

2014-08-01

"Clinician-scientists" is an all-inclusive term for board-certified specialists who engage in patient care and laboratory-based (biomedical) research, patient-based (clinical) research, or population-based (epidemiological) research. In recent years, the number of medical graduates who choose to combine patient care and research has declined, generating concerns about the future of medical research. This paper reviews: a) the various current categories of clinician-scientists, b) the reasons proposed for the declining number of medical graduates who opt for a career as clinician-scientists, c) the various interventions aimed at reversing this trend, and d) the projections for the future role of clinician-scientists. Efforts to encourage students to combine patient care and research include providing financial and institutional support, and reducing the duration of the training of clinician-scientists. However, recent advances in clinical and biomedical knowledge have increased the difficulties in maintaining the dual role of care-providers and scientists. It was therefore suggested that rather than expecting clinician-scientists to compete with full-time clinicians in providing patient care, and with full-time investigators in performing research, clinician-scientists will increasingly assume the role of leading/coordinating interdisciplinary teams. Such teams would focus either on patient-based research or on the clinical, biomedical and epidemiological aspects of specific clinical disorders, such as hypertension and diabetes.

NASA's Vision for Potential Energy Reduction from Future Generations of Propulsion Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haller, Bill

2015-01-01

Through a robust partnership with the aviation industry, over the past 50 years NASA programs have helped foster advances in propulsion technology that enabled substantial reductions in fuel consumption for commercial transports. Emerging global trends and continuing environmental concerns are creating challenges that will very likely transform the face of aviation over the next 20-40 years. In recognition of this development, NASA Aeronautics has established a set of Research Thrusts that will help define the future direction of the agency's research technology efforts. Two of these thrusts, Ultra-Efficient Commercial Vehicles and Transition to Low-Carbon Propulsion, serve as cornerstones for the Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) project. The AATT project is exploring and developing high-payoff technologies and concepts that are key to continued improvement in energy efficiency and environmental compatibility for future generations of fixed-wing, subsonic transports. The AATT project is primarily focused on the N+3 timeframe, or 3 generations from current technology levels. As should be expected, many of the propulsion system architectures technologies envisioned for N+3 vary significantly from todays engines. The use of batteries in a hybrid-electric configuration or deploying multiple fans distributed across the airframe to enable higher bypass ratios are just two examples of potential advances that could enable substantial energy reductions over current propulsion systems.

Spatial and temporal trends of drought effects in a heterogeneous semi-arid forest ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

2016-01-01

Drought has long been recognized as a driving mechanism in the forests of western North America and drought-induced mortality has been documented across genera in recent years. Given the frequency of these events are expected to increase in the future, understanding patterns of mortality and plant response to severe drought is important to resource managers. Drought can affect the functional, physiological, structural, and demographic properties of forest ecosystems. Remote sensing studies have documented changes in forest properties due to direct and indirect effects of drought; however, few studies have addressed this at local scales needed to characterize highly heterogeneous ecosystems in the forest-shrubland ecotone. We analyzed a 22-year Landsat time series (1985–2012) to determine changes in forest in an area that experienced a relatively dry decade punctuated by two years of extreme drought. We assessed the relationship between several vegetation indices and field measured characteristics (e.g. plant area index and canopy gap fraction) and applied these indices to trend analysis to uncover the location, direction and timing of change. Finally, we assessed the interaction of climate and topography by forest functional type. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), a measure of canopy water content, had the strongest correlation with short-term field measures of plant area index (R2 = 0.64) and canopy gap fraction (R2 = 0.65). Over the entire time period, 25% of the forested area experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) negative trend in NDMI, compared to less than 10% in a positive trend. Coniferous forests were more likely to be associated with a negative NDMI trend than deciduous forest. Forests on southern aspects were least likely to exhibit a negative trend while north aspects were most prevalent. Field plots with a negative trend had a lower live density, and higher amounts of standing dead and down trees compared to plots with no trend. Our analysis identifies spatially explicit patterns of long-term trends anchored with ground based evidence to highlight areas of forest that are resistant, persistent or vulnerable to severe drought. The results provide a long-term perspective for the resource management of this area and can be applied to similar ecosystems throughout western North America.

Negative affect in at-risk youth: Outcome expectancies mediate relations with both regular and electronic cigarette use.

PubMed

Miller, Stephen; Pike, James; Stacy, Alan W; Xie, Bin; Ames, Susan L

2017-06-01

Despite the general trend of declining use of traditional cigarettes among young adults in the United States, alternative high school students continue to smoke cigarettes and electronic cigarettes at rates much higher than do students attending regular high schools. Challenging life circumstances leading to elevated levels of negative affect may account for increased smoking behavior in this population. Further, a belief in the negative affect-reducing qualities of nicotine may mediate this effect. The current study tested the hypothesis that negative reinforcing outcome expectancies mediate the relationship between negative affect on smoking susceptibility in nonusers, smoking frequency in users, and smoking experimentation in the overall sample. Results support the hypothesis that negative affect in alternative high school students is correlated with smoking experimentation, smoking willingness, and smoking frequency and that the relationship between negative affect and smoking behavior outcomes is mediated by negative reinforcing outcome expectancies (i.e., beliefs in the negative affect-reducing effects of smoking). This finding was supported for both cigarettes and electronic cigarettes and coincides with a rapid increase in the number of high school students nationally who have experimented with electronic cigarettes. Future antismoking initiatives directed at at-risk youth should consider integrating healthier negative affect reduction techniques to counter the use of nicotine products. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The Future of School Library Media Centers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craver, Kathleen W.

1984-01-01

Examines impact of technology on school library media program development and role of school librarian. Technological trends (computerized record keeping, computer-assisted instruction, networking, home computers, videodiscs), employment and economic trends, education of school librarians, social and behavioral trends, and organizational and…

Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.

PubMed

Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2015-11-01

We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrated Science and Logistical Planning to Support Big Questions in Antarctic Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Stockings, T. M.

2015-12-01

Each year, British Antarctic Survey (BAS) supports an extensive programme of science at five Antarctic and sub-Antarctic stations, ranging from the tiny Bird Island Research Station at 54°S in the South Atlantic, to the massive, and fully re-locatable, Halley Research Station on Brunt Ice Shelf at 75°S. The BAS logistics hub, Rothera Research Station on the Antarctic Peninsula supports deployment of deep-field and airborne field campaigns through much of the Antarctic continent, and an innovative new UK polar research vessel is under design, and planned to enter service in the Southern Ocean in 2019. BAS's core science programme covering all aspects of physical, biological and geological science is delivered by our own science teams, but every year many other UK scientists and overseas collaborators also access BAS's Antarctic logistics to support their own programmes. As an integrated science and logistics provider, BAS is continuously reviewing its capabilities and operational procedures to ensure that the future long-term requirements of science are optimally supported. Current trends are towards providing the capacity for heavier remote operations and larger-scale field camps, increasing use of autonomous ocean and airborne platforms, and increasing opportunities to provide turnkey solutions for low-cost experimental deployments. This talk will review of expected trends in Antarctic science and the opportunities to conduct science in Antarctica. It will outline the anticipated logistic developments required to support future stakeholder-led and strategically-directed science programmes, and the long-term ambitions of our science communities indentified in several recent horizon-scanning activities.

The effect of economic downturn on the volume of surgical procedures: A systematic review.

PubMed

Fujihara, Nasa; Lark, Meghan E; Fujihara, Yuki; Chung, Kevin C

2017-08-01

Economic downturn can have a wide range of effects on medicine at both individual and national levels. We aim to describe these effects in relation to surgical volume to guide future planning for physician specialization, patient expectations in the face of economic crises, or estimating healthcare expenditure. We hypothesized that because of high out-of-pocket costs, cosmetic procedure volumes would be most affected by economic decline. A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, and ABI/INFORMS. The main search terms were "economic recession" and "surgical procedures, operative". Studies were included if surgical volumes were measured and economic indicators were used as predictors of economic conditions. Twelve studies were included, and the most common subject was cosmetic (n = 5), followed by orthopedic (n = 2) and cardiac surgeries (n = 2). The majority of studies found that in periods of economic downturn, surgical volume decreased. Among the eight studies using Pearson's correlation analysis, there were no significant differences between cosmetic procedures and other elective procedures, indicating that cosmetic procedures may display trends similar to those of non-cosmetic elective procedures in periods of economic downturn. Surgical volume generally decreased when economic indicators declined, observed for both elective and non-elective surgery fields. However, a few specific procedure volumes such as vasectomy and caesarean section for male babies increased during the economic downturn. Knowledge of these trends can be useful for future surgical planning and distribution of healthcare resources. Copyright © 2017 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Catfish science: Status and trends in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kwak, Thomas J.; Porath, Mark T.; Michaletz, Paul H.; Travnichek, Vincent H.

2011-01-01

Catfish science, the study of the fish order Siluriformes, is a diverse and expanding field in terms of advances and breadth of topics. We compiled literature from primary fisheries journals as an index of interest and advances in catfish science to examine temporal trends in the field. The number of catfish scientific publications varied over the past century with strong peaks during 1975–1979 and 2005–2010, which may be the result of interactive scientific and societal influences. Catfish biology was the predominant publication topic until the late 1990s, when ecology, techniques, and management publications became more prevalent. Articles on catfish ecology were most numerous in both the first and second international catfish symposia, but publications on techniques and conservation were more numerous in the second catfish symposium than the first. We summarize the state of knowledge, recent advances, and areas for future attention among topics in catfish science, including sampling and aging techniques, population dynamics, ecology, fisheries management, species diversity, nonnative catfish, and human dimensions, with an emphasis on the gains in this second symposium. Areas that we expect to be pursued in the future are development of new techniques and validation of existing methods; expansion of research to less-studied catfish species; broadening temporal, spatial, and organizational scales; interdisciplinary approaches; and research on societal views and constituent demands. Meeting these challenges will require scientists to span beyond their professional comfort zones to effectively reach higher standards. We look forward to the coming decade and the many advances in the conservation, ecology, and management of catfish that will be shared.

Recent very high heat stress summers will be the norm within 20 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Zhang, X.; Zwiers, F. W.

2017-12-01

The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) accounts for the effect of environmental temperature and humidity on thermal comfort, and is considered as a heat stress index most relevant to human health. In this study, we compare observation-based and modeled 1973-2012 summer WBGT over north hemispheric land between 10° N and 60° N covered by sufficient observations. We show that summer WBGT has trended upward since 1973, and that these upward trends are more likely to be anthropogenic than natural in origin. Of the observed 1.08 °C warming in summer WBGT during 1973-2012, greenhouse gas increases alone could have contributed 1.55 °C (90% confidence interval 1.04 2.25°C), which is partly offset by 0.51°C (0.01 1.20°C) cooling due to other anthropogenic forcings such as anthropogenic aerosols, ozone and land use change. At regional scales, the record summer mean WBGT experienced during 1973-2012 is now expected to be at least 70 times as likely to occur compared to if there were no anthropogenic influence. Future projections under the representative concentration pathway emissions scenario RCP8.5 that are constrained by observations indicate that within 20 years at least 50% of the future summers will have seasonal mean WBGT higher the highest in the historical record in all the analyzed regions, and that this percentage will increase dramatically to 95% by mid-century. The projected high WBGT temperatures can pose potentially dangerous impacts on human and natural systems, calling for urgent need for the development of adaptation measures.

TRENDS IN MORTALITY FROM OCCUPATIONAL HAZARDS AMONG MEN IN ENGLAND AND WALES DURING 1979-2010

PubMed Central

Harris, E Clare; Palmer, Keith T; Cox, Vanessa; Darnton, Andrew; Osman, John; Coggon, David

2016-01-01

Objectives To monitor the impact of health and safety provisions and inform future preventive strategies, we investigated trends in mortality from established occupational hazards in England and Wales. Methods We analysed data from death certificates on underlying cause of death and last full-time occupation for 3,688,916 deaths among men aged 20-74 years in England and Wales during 1979-2010 (excluding 1981 when records were incomplete). Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs), standardised for age and social class, were calculated for occupations at risk of specified hazards. Observed and expected numbers of deaths for each hazard were summed across occupations, and the differences summarised as average annual excesses. Results Excess mortality declined substantially for most hazards. For example, the annual excess of deaths from chronic bronchitis and emphysema fell from 170.7 during 1979-90 to 36.0 in 2001-10, and that for deaths from injury and poisoning from 237.0 to 87.5. In many cases the improvements were associated with falling PMRs (suggesting safer working practices), but they also reflected reductions in the numbers of men employed in more hazardous jobs, and declining mortality from some diseases across the whole population. Notable exceptions to the general improvement were diseases caused by asbestos, especially in some construction trades and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. Conclusions The highest priority for future prevention of work-related fatalities is the minority of occupational disorders for which excess mortality remains static or is increasing, in particular asbestos-related disease among certain occupations in the construction industry and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. PMID:26976946

Current Applications of OMI Tropospheric NO2 Data for Air Quality and a Look to the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pickering, Kenneth E.; Bucsela, E.; Allen, D.; Prados, A.; Gleason, J.; Kondragunta, S.

2010-01-01

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Tropospheric NO2 products are being used to enhance the ability to monitor changes in NO2 air quality, update emission inventories, and evaluate regional air quality models. Trends in tropospheric column NO2 have been examined over the eastern United States in relation to emissions changes mandated by regulatory actions. Decreases of 20 to 40 percent over the period 2005 to 2008 were noted, largely in response to major emission reductions at power plants. The OMI data have been used to identify regions in which the opposite trend has been found. We have also used OMI NO2 in efforts to improve emission inventories for NOx emissions from soil. Lightning NOx emissions have been added to CMAQ, the US Environmental Protection Agency's regional air quality model. Evaluation of the resulting NO2 columns in the model is being conducted using the OMI NO2 observations. Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) together with the OMI NO2 data comprise a valuable tool for monitoring and predicting air quality. Looking to the future, we expect that the combination of Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) (morning) and OMI (afternoon) data sets obtained through use of the same retrieval algorithms will substantially increase the possibility of successful integration of satellite information into regional air quality forecast models. Farther down the road, we anticipate the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) platform to supply data possibly on an hourly basis, allowing much more comprehensive analysis of air quality from space.

Predictors of Future Expectations of Inner-City Children: A 9-Month Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Arnett, Mitzi; Smith, Katherine; Ippolito, Maria F.

2001-01-01

Assessed contributions of internal resources, supportive family and peer relations, peer negative influences, and behavioral adjustment to positive expectations for the future for inner-city school children. Found that higher levels of positive expectation related to lower levels of problem behavior and to higher levels of school involvement,…

The role of expectations, hype and ethics in neuroimaging and neuromodulation futures

PubMed Central

Rusconi, Elena; Mitchener-Nissen, Timothy

2014-01-01

The production of expectations or future-goals for the development of techniques which “read” and modulate brain function, represent an important practical tool for neuroscientists. These visions-of-the-future assist scientists by providing focus for both individual and cross-disciplinary research programs; they encourage the development of new industrial sectors, are used to justify the allocation of government resources and funding, and via the media can help capture the imagination and support of the public. However, such expectations need to be tempered by reality. Over-hyping brain imaging and modulation will lead to disappointment; disappointment that in turn can undermine its potential. Similarly, if neuroscientists focus their attention narrowly on the science without concomitant consideration of its future ethical, legal and social implications, then their expectations may remain unrealized. To develop these arguments herein we introduce the theoretical concept of expectations and the practical consequences of expectations. We contextualize these reflections by referring to brain imaging and modulation studies on deception, which encompass the measurement-suppression-augmentation range. PMID:25400557

The Skills and Training Needed by Farm Management Researchers in the Future: Discussion. Economics Staff Paper 93-4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franklin, Douglas R.

In view of continuing trends in farming and the trend toward increasing farm diversification and specialization, the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges and individual researchers have proposed their own lists of the skills that will be needed by farm management researchers in the future. Because farm management…

Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This booklet presents an overview of the findings pertaining to eighth, tenth, and twelfth grade students from the 1999 Monitoring the Future Study. This overview focuses on recent trends in the use of various licit and illicit drugs. It also examines trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug, which…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2006. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 67

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2007-01-01

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2006: Volume I: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender, college…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2007. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 69

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2008-01-01

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2007: Volume I: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender, college…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2000. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 53.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2000: Volume 1: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender,…

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

Student Housing: Trends, Preferences and Needs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

La Roche, Claire Reeves; Flanigan, Mary A.; Copeland, P. Kenneth, Jr.

2010-01-01

To attract and retain students, universities are confronted with increased demand to provide housing options that meet the new expectations of the millennial generation. Recent trends and housing preferences are examined. The results of surveys detailing some of these new demands and how universities are attempting to address these demands are…

Recruiting Trends, 2005-2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collegiate Employment Research Institute (NJ3), 2006

2006-01-01

Almost 900 employers responded to this year's "Recruiting Trends" survey, the largest response in the history of this project. Hiring of college graduates is expected to increase by single digits minimally, or double digits if certain geographic sectors are excluded (between 6% and 14%). This growth follows a robust 20% increase in…

Entrepreneurship Success Stories: Implications for Teaching and Learning. Practice Application Brief No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Bettina Lankard

Societal trends and personal characteristics are facilitating movement from corporate to self-employment. The entrepreneurship movement is characterized by several trends that are influencing the way people work: such as younger workers expecting shorter-term commitments to work, expanding career options, opening of worldwide operations, and…

School Dropout Indicators, Trends, and Interventions for School Counselors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dockery, Donna J.

2012-01-01

School counselors are expected to develop programs that promote academic success for all students, including those at risk for dropping out of school. Knowledge of key indicators of potential dropouts and current trends in dropout prevention research may assist school counselors in better understanding this complex issue. Implementing recommended…

Economic Yearbook from Georgia Trend Magazine, 1996.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamilton, John

Based on information from "Georgia Trend" magazine examining economic conditions across Georgia, Gainesville College (GC) is expected to experience an expanding base of students over the next 5 years. With respect to Hall County and the nine contiguous counties that make up GC's service area, data indicate a population growth in the…

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Overexploitation of karst spring as a measure against water scarcity.

PubMed

Dimkić, Dejan; Dimkić, Milan; Soro, Andjelko; Pavlović, Dusan; Jevtić, Goran; Lukić, Vladimir; Svrkota, Dragan

2017-09-01

Water scarcity, especially in the hydrologically critical part of the year, is a problem often present in many cities and regions, particularly in arid and sub-arid areas. Climate change and human water demand compound the problem. This paper discusses a climate change adaptation measure-the possibility of karst spring overexploitation, where there is a siphon-shaped cavity inside the mountain. The pilot area is near the city of Niš, where a decreasing precipitation trend has already been observed and is expected to continue in the future. The paper also presents some basic information related to the pilot area and undertaken investigations. The project, successfully implemented in 2004, has provided the city of Niš with an additional amount of 200 l/s of spring water during the most critical part of the year.

Future trends in electrical energy generation economics in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitt, R. W.; Fox, G. R.; Shah, R. P.; Stewart, P. J.; Vermilyea, D. A.

1977-01-01

Developments related to the economics of coal-fired systems in the U.S. are mainly considered. The historical background of the U.S. electric generation industry is examined and the U.S. electrical generation characteristics in the year 1975 are considered. It is pointed out that coal-fired power plants are presently the largest source of electrical energy generation in the U.S. Questions concerning the availability and quality of coal are investigated. Currently there are plans for converting some 50 large oil and gas-fired generating plants to coal, and it is expected that coal will be the fuel used in almost all fossil-fired base load additions to generating capacity. Aspects of advanced energy conversion from coal are discussed, taking into account the performance and economic potential of the energy conversion systems.

Nursing values in China: the expectations of registered nurses.

PubMed

Pang, Dong; Senaratana, Wilawan; Kunaviktikul, Wipada; Klunklin, Areewan; McElmurry, Beverly J

2009-09-01

Abstract The purpose of this study was to identify the essential professional values of Chinese nurses and their manifestations in the current health-care environment. Data were collected from 29 nurse experts by semi-structured individual interviews or focus groups in Beijing and Shanghai, China. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. Seven themes were identified: altruism, caring, trustworthiness, dignity, responsibility for the development of the profession, autonomy, and justice. On the whole, these values were in accordance with the codes of the International Council of Nurses and the Chinese Nursing Association. Additionally, culture and socioeconomic trends were found to have an influence on nurses' understanding and explanation of professional values. The findings of this study provided insight into Chinese nurses' professional values and might contribute to the future development of a culturally sensitive scale to measure nursing values in China.

Five-Factor Personality Traits and Age Trajectories of Self-Rated Health: The Role of Question Framing

PubMed Central

Löckenhoff, Corinna E.; Terracciano, Antonio; Ferrucci, Luigi; Costa, Paul T.

2011-01-01

We examined the influence of personality traits on mean levels and age trends in four single-item measures of self-rated health: General rating, comparison to age peers, comparison to past health, and expectations for future health. Community-dwelling participants (N = 1,683) completed 7,474 self-rated health assessments over a period of up to 19-years. In hierarchical linear modeling analyses, age-associated declines differed across the four health items. Across age groups, high neuroticism and low conscientiousness, low extraversion, and low openness were associated with worse health ratings, with notable differences across the four health items. Furthermore, high neuroticism predicted steeper declines in health ratings involving temporal comparisons. We consider theoretical implications regarding the mechanisms behind associations among personality traits and self-rated health. PMID:21299558

New phenotypes for new breeding goals in pigs.

PubMed

Merks, J W M; Mathur, P K; Knol, E F

2012-04-01

Pig breeders in the past have adopted their breeding goals according to the needs of the producers, processors and consumers and have made remarkable genetic improvements in the traits of interest. However, it is becoming more and more challenging to meet the market needs and expectations of consumers and in general of the citizens. In view of the current and future trends, the breeding goals have to include several additional traits and new phenotypes. These phenotypes include (a) vitality from birth to slaughter, (b) uniformity at different levels of production, (c) robustness, (d) welfare and health and (e) phenotypes to reduce carbon footprint. Advancements in management, genomics, statistical models and other technologies provide opportunities for recording these phenotypes. These new developments also provide opportunities for making effective use of the new phenotypes for faster genetic improvement to meet the newly adapted breeding goals.

Molecularly imprinted polymers for the recognition of proteins: the state of the art.

PubMed

Bossi, A; Bonini, F; Turner, A P F; Piletsky, S A

2007-01-15

Molecular imprinting has proved to be an effective technique for the creation of recognition sites on a polymer scaffold. Protein imprinting has been a focus for many chemists working in the area of molecular recognition, since the creation of synthetic polymers that can specifically recognise proteins is a very challenging but potentially extremely rewarding objective. It is expected that molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) with specificity for proteins will find application in medicine, diagnostics, proteomics, environmental analysis, sensors and drug delivery. In this review, the authors provide an overview of the progress achieved in the decade between 1994 and 2005, with respect to the challenging area of MIPs for protein recognition. The discussion furnishes a comparative analysis of different approaches developed, underlining their relative advantages and disadvantages and highlighting trends and possible future directions.