An information-theoretic approach to assess practical identifiability of parametric dynamical systems.

PubMed

Pant, Sanjay; Lombardi, Damiano

2015-10-01

A new approach for assessing parameter identifiability of dynamical systems in a Bayesian setting is presented. The concept of Shannon entropy is employed to measure the inherent uncertainty in the parameters. The expected reduction in this uncertainty is seen as the amount of information one expects to gain about the parameters due to the availability of noisy measurements of the dynamical system. Such expected information gain is interpreted in terms of the variance of a hypothetical measurement device that can measure the parameters directly, and is related to practical identifiability of the parameters. If the individual parameters are unidentifiable, correlation between parameter combinations is assessed through conditional mutual information to determine which sets of parameters can be identified together. The information theoretic quantities of entropy and information are evaluated numerically through a combination of Monte Carlo and k-nearest neighbour methods in a non-parametric fashion. Unlike many methods to evaluate identifiability proposed in the literature, the proposed approach takes the measurement-noise into account and is not restricted to any particular noise-structure. Whilst computationally intensive for large dynamical systems, it is easily parallelisable and is non-intrusive as it does not necessitate re-writing of the numerical solvers of the dynamical system. The application of such an approach is presented for a variety of dynamical systems--ranging from systems governed by ordinary differential equations to partial differential equations--and, where possible, validated against results previously published in the literature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Locating Sensors for Detecting Source-to-Target Patterns of Special Nuclear Material Smuggling: A Spatial Information Theoretic Approach

PubMed Central

Przybyla, Jay; Taylor, Jeffrey; Zhou, Xuesong

2010-01-01

In this paper, a spatial information-theoretic model is proposed to locate sensors for detecting source-to-target patterns of special nuclear material (SNM) smuggling. In order to ship the nuclear materials from a source location with SNM production to a target city, the smugglers must employ global and domestic logistics systems. This paper focuses on locating a limited set of fixed and mobile radiation sensors in a transportation network, with the intent to maximize the expected information gain and minimize the estimation error for the subsequent nuclear material detection stage. A Kalman filtering-based framework is adapted to assist the decision-maker in quantifying the network-wide information gain and SNM flow estimation accuracy. PMID:22163641

Locating sensors for detecting source-to-target patterns of special nuclear material smuggling: a spatial information theoretic approach.

PubMed

Przybyla, Jay; Taylor, Jeffrey; Zhou, Xuesong

2010-01-01

In this paper, a spatial information-theoretic model is proposed to locate sensors for detecting source-to-target patterns of special nuclear material (SNM) smuggling. In order to ship the nuclear materials from a source location with SNM production to a target city, the smugglers must employ global and domestic logistics systems. This paper focuses on locating a limited set of fixed and mobile radiation sensors in a transportation network, with the intent to maximize the expected information gain and minimize the estimation error for the subsequent nuclear material detection stage. A Kalman filtering-based framework is adapted to assist the decision-maker in quantifying the network-wide information gain and SNM flow estimation accuracy.

Association of gestational weight gain expectations with advice on actual weight gain

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To examine pregnant women's gestational weight gain expectations/advice from various sources (i.e., self, family/friends, physician) and the impact of these sources of expectations/advice on actual measured gestational weight gain. Pregnant women (n=230, 87.4% Caucasian, second pregnancy) in a cohor...

Promoting Parent Academic Expectations Predicts Improved School Outcomes for Low-income Children Entering Kindergarten

PubMed Central

Loughlin-Presnal, John E.; Bierman, Karen L.

2017-01-01

This study explored patterns of change in the REDI (Research-based Developmentally Informed) Parent program (REDI-P), designed to help parents support child learning at the transition into kindergarten. Participants were 200 prekindergarten children attending Head Start (55% European-American, 26% African American, 19% Latino, 56% male, Mage = 4.45 years, SD = .29) and their primary caregivers, who were randomized to a 16-session home-visiting intervention (REDI-P) or a control group. Extending beyond a prior study documenting intervention effects on parenting behaviors and child kindergarten outcomes, this study assessed the impact of REDI-P on parent academic expectations, and then explored the degree to which intervention gains in three areas of parenting (parent-child interactive reading, parent-child conversations, parent academic expectations) predicted child outcomes in kindergarten (controlling for baseline values and a set of child and family characteristics). Results showed that REDI-P promoted significant gains in parent academic expectations, which in turn mediated intervention gains in child emergent literacy skills and self-directed learning. Results suggest a need to attend to the beliefs parents hold about their child’s academic potential, as well as their behavioral support for child learning, when designing interventions to enhance the school success of children in low-income families. PMID:28646976

Did people "buy" what was "sold"? A qualitative evaluation of a contingent valuation survey information set for gains in life expectancy.

PubMed

Baker, R; Bartczak, A; Chilton, S; Metcalf, H

2014-01-15

A number of stated preferences studies have estimated a monetary value for the gains in life expectancy resulting from pollution control, using a Value of a Life Year (VOLY) approach. However, life expectancy gains are a complex concept and no attempt has been made, to date, to investigate peoples' understanding of what it is they are being asked to value. Past practice has been to focus on the outcome of a policy i.e. a gain to the average person of X months', providing no details on how the individual receives, or experiences this gain, a potentially important attribute to value. This paper sets up and reports the results from a structured debriefing exercise to qualitatively investigate an alternative approach which explicitly emphasises how this gain is delivered (on-going reductions in the risk of death). We find that, for the majority of respondents, the approach is effective in communicating the on-going nature of the gain and reduces or eliminates the use of the (incorrect) heuristic that it is an 'add-on' at the end of life, in poor health. Further refinements are required, however, to communicate the cumulative nature of these risk reductions and the lack of impact on quality of life. The lesson for stated preference studies in general is that structured debriefings can be very useful, highlighting such issues as the persistence of ill-defined attributes and the difficulties that respondents may encounter setting aside their preferences over attributes of the good that should not be included in the valuation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Customer service: developing a new mindset for today's instant gratification society.

PubMed

Stockburger, W T

1998-01-01

Today's society expects and demands immediate service, results and access to information. Can those of us in leadership positions say that the service we provide is equal to or exceeds what our customers expect? How can we redesign our services so they are better than those we currently provide? Some people look to advances in technology as one means to improve services and access to information, but this should not be the only means. If we are to develop a philosophy of exceptional service, we must develop a vision of those services. We must gain an understanding of our customers, plus a knowledge of products, the availability of resources and any industry constraints. In healthcare, we must look to leadership to achieve our goals. A goal of exceptional customer service must be communicated to all levels of service providers from management. Top-down action by management--leadership by example--is critical. Leadership must gain the trust of both customers and employees by actively listening to both verbal and nonverbal comments at all points of service. Without an understanding of our customers' needs, it won't be possible to deliver services at or above their expectations.

Estimating the cost of no-shows and evaluating the effects of mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Berg, Bjorn P; Murr, Michael; Chermak, David; Woodall, Jonathan; Pignone, Michael; Sandler, Robert S; Denton, Brian T

2013-11-01

To measure the cost of nonattendance ("no-shows") and benefit of overbooking and interventions to reduce no-shows for an outpatient endoscopy suite. We used a discrete-event simulation model to determine improved overbooking scheduling policies and examine the effect of no-shows on procedure utilization and expected net gain, defined as the difference in expected revenue based on Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services reimbursement rates and variable costs based on the sum of patient waiting time and provider and staff overtime. No-show rates were estimated from historical attendance (18% on average, with a sensitivity range of 12%-24%). We then evaluated the effectiveness of scheduling additional patients and the effect of no-show reduction interventions on the expected net gain. The base schedule booked 24 patients per day. The daily expected net gain with perfect attendance is $4433.32. The daily loss attributed to the base case no-show rate of 18% is $725.42 (16.4% of net gain), ranging from $472.14 to $1019.29 (10.7%-23.0% of net gain). Implementing no-show interventions reduced net loss by $166.61 to $463.09 (3.8%-10.5% of net gain). The overbooking policy of 9 additional patients per day resulted in no loss in expected net gain when compared with the reference scenario. No-shows can significantly decrease the expected net gain of outpatient procedure centers. Overbooking can help mitigate the impact of no-shows on a suite's expected net gain and has a lower expected cost of implementation to the provider than intervention strategies.

DSN 70-meter antenna microwave optics design and performance improvements. Part 2: Comparison with measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bathker, D. A.; Slobin, S. D.

1989-01-01

The measured Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-meter antenna performance at S- and X-bands is compared with the design expectations. A discussion of natural radio-source calibration standards is given. New estimates of DSN 64-meter antenna performance are given, based on improved values of calibration source flux and size correction. A comparison of the 64- and 70-meter performances shows that average S-band peak gain improvement is 1.94 dB, compared with a design expectation of 1.77 dB. At X-band, the average peak gain improvement is 2.12 dB, compared with the (coincidentally similar) design expectation of 1.77 dB. The average measured 70-meter S-band peak gain exceeds the nominal design-expected gain by 0.02 dB; the average measured 70-meter X-band peak gain is 0.14 dB below the nominal design-expected gain.

Long-Term Care Insurance: Does Experience Matter?*

PubMed Central

Coe, Norma B.; Skira, Meghan M.; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

2015-01-01

We examine whether long-term care (LTC) experience helps explain the low demand for long-term care insurance (LTCI). We test if expectations about future informal care receipt, expectations about inheritance receipt, and LTCI purchase decisions vary between individuals whose parents or in-laws have used LTC versus those who have not. We find parental use of a nursing home decreases expectations that one’s children will provide informal care, consistent with the demonstration effect. Nursing home use by in-laws does not have the same impact, suggesting that individuals are responding to information gained about their own aging trajectory. Nursing home use by either a parent or in-law increases LTCI purchase probability by 0.8 percentage points, with no significant difference in response between parents’ and in-laws’ use. The estimated increase in purchase probability from experience with LTC is about half the previously estimated increase from tax policy-induced price decreases. PMID:25647006

Partial Adaptation of Obtained and Observed Value Signals Preserves Information about Gains and Losses

PubMed Central

Baddeley, Michelle; Tobler, Philippe N.; Schultz, Wolfram

2016-01-01

Given that the range of rewarding and punishing outcomes of actions is large but neural coding capacity is limited, efficient processing of outcomes by the brain is necessary. One mechanism to increase efficiency is to rescale neural output to the range of outcomes expected in the current context, and process only experienced deviations from this expectation. However, this mechanism comes at the cost of not being able to discriminate between unexpectedly low losses when times are bad versus unexpectedly high gains when times are good. Thus, too much adaptation would result in disregarding information about the nature and absolute magnitude of outcomes, preventing learning about the longer-term value structure of the environment. Here we investigate the degree of adaptation in outcome coding brain regions in humans, for directly experienced outcomes and observed outcomes. We scanned participants while they performed a social learning task in gain and loss blocks. Multivariate pattern analysis showed two distinct networks of brain regions adapt to the most likely outcomes within a block. Frontostriatal areas adapted to directly experienced outcomes, whereas lateral frontal and temporoparietal regions adapted to observed social outcomes. Critically, in both cases, adaptation was incomplete and information about whether the outcomes arose in a gain block or a loss block was retained. Univariate analysis confirmed incomplete adaptive coding in these regions but also detected nonadapting outcome signals. Thus, although neural areas rescale their responses to outcomes for efficient coding, they adapt incompletely and keep track of the longer-term incentives available in the environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Optimal value-based choice requires that the brain precisely and efficiently represents positive and negative outcomes. One way to increase efficiency is to adapt responding to the most likely outcomes in a given context. However, too strong adaptation would result in loss of precise representation (e.g., when the avoidance of a loss in a loss-context is coded the same as receipt of a gain in a gain-context). We investigated an intermediate form of adaptation that is efficient while maintaining information about received gains and avoided losses. We found that frontostriatal areas adapted to directly experienced outcomes, whereas lateral frontal and temporoparietal regions adapted to observed social outcomes. Importantly, adaptation was intermediate, in line with influential models of reference dependence in behavioral economics. PMID:27683899

Resolution of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts with Application in Disease Management.

PubMed

Hughes, G; McRoberts, N; Burnett, F J

2017-02-01

Predictive systems in disease management often incorporate weather data among the disease risk factors, and sometimes this comes in the form of forecast weather data rather than observed weather data. In such cases, it is useful to have an evaluation of the operational weather forecast, in addition to the evaluation of the disease forecasts provided by the predictive system. Typically, weather forecasts and disease forecasts are evaluated using different methodologies. However, the information theoretic quantity expected mutual information provides a basis for evaluating both kinds of forecast. Expected mutual information is an appropriate metric for the average performance of a predictive system over a set of forecasts. Both relative entropy (a divergence, measuring information gain) and specific information (an entropy difference, measuring change in uncertainty) provide a basis for the assessment of individual forecasts.

Predicting gambling problems from gambling outcome expectancies in college student-athletes.

PubMed

St-Pierre, Renée A; Temcheff, Caroline E; Gupta, Rina; Derevensky, Jeffrey; Paskus, Thomas S

2014-03-01

While previous research has suggested the potential importance of gambling outcome expectancies in determining gambling behaviour among adolescents, the predictive ability of gambling outcome expectancies has not yet been clearly delineated for college-aged youth. The current study aims to explore the relationships between gender and outcome expectancies in the prediction of gambling severity among college student-athletes. Data from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) study assessing gambling behaviours and problems among U.S. college student-athletes were utilized. Complete data was available for 7,517 student-athletes. As expected, male college student-athletes reported more gambling participation as well as greater gambling problems than their female counterparts. Findings showed positive relationships between the outcome expectancies of financial gain, and negative emotional impacts and gambling problems. That is, those who endorsed more items on the outcome expectancy scales for financial gain and negative emotional impacts also tended to endorse more gambling-related problems. Findings also showed a negative relationship between outcome expectancies of fun and enjoyment, and gambling problems over and above the variance accounted for by gender. Those with gambling problems were less likely to have the expectation that gambling would be fun than those without gambling problems. Despite NCAA efforts to curb gambling activity, the results suggest that college student-athletes are at risk for over-involvement in gambling. Therefore, it is important to explore gambling outcome expectancies within this group since the motivations and reasons for gambling might be able to inform treatment initiatives.

Promoting parent academic expectations predicts improved school outcomes for low-income children entering kindergarten.

PubMed

Loughlin-Presnal, John E; Bierman, Karen L

2017-06-01

This study explored patterns of change in the REDI (Research-based Developmentally Informed) Parent program (REDI-P), designed to help parents support child learning at the transition into kindergarten. Participants were 200 prekindergarten children attending Head Start (55% European-American, 26% African American, 19% Latino, 56% male, M age =4.45years, SD=0.29) and their primary caregivers, who were randomized to a 16-session home-visiting intervention (REDI-P) or a control group. Extending beyond a prior study documenting intervention effects on parenting behaviors and child kindergarten outcomes, this study assessed the impact of REDI-P on parent academic expectations, and then explored the degree to which intervention gains in three areas of parenting (parent-child interactive reading, parent-child conversations, parent academic expectations) predicted child outcomes in kindergarten (controlling for baseline values and a set of child and family characteristics). Results showed that REDI-P promoted significant gains in parent academic expectations, which in turn mediated intervention gains in child emergent literacy skills and self-directed learning. Results suggest a need to attend to the beliefs parents hold about their child's academic potential, as well as their behavioral support for child learning, when designing interventions to enhance the school success of children in low-income families. Copyright © 2017 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting Genetic Interactions for Quantitative Traits Using m-Spacing Entropy Measure

PubMed Central

Yee, Jaeyong; Kwon, Min-Seok; Park, Taesung; Park, Mira

2015-01-01

A number of statistical methods for detecting gene-gene interactions have been developed in genetic association studies with binary traits. However, many phenotype measures are intrinsically quantitative and categorizing continuous traits may not always be straightforward and meaningful. Association of gene-gene interactions with an observed distribution of such phenotypes needs to be investigated directly without categorization. Information gain based on entropy measure has previously been successful in identifying genetic associations with binary traits. We extend the usefulness of this information gain by proposing a nonparametric evaluation method of conditional entropy of a quantitative phenotype associated with a given genotype. Hence, the information gain can be obtained for any phenotype distribution. Because any functional form, such as Gaussian, is not assumed for the entire distribution of a trait or a given genotype, this method is expected to be robust enough to be applied to any phenotypic association data. Here, we show its use to successfully identify the main effect, as well as the genetic interactions, associated with a quantitative trait. PMID:26339620

How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maxwell, Sean L.; Rhodes, Jonathan R.; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Ng, Chooi Fei; McDonald Madden, Eve

2015-01-01

Conservation decision-makers face a trade-off between spending limited funds on direct management action, or gaining new information in an attempt to improve management performance in the future. Value-of-information analysis can help to resolve this trade-off by evaluating how much management performance could improve if new information was gained. Value-of-information analysis has been used extensively in other disciplines, but there are only a few examples where it has informed conservation planning, none of which have used it to evaluate the financial value of gaining new information. We address this gap by applying value-of-information analysis to the management of a declining koala Phascolarctos cinereuspopulation. Decision-makers responsible for managing this population face uncertainty about survival and fecundity rates, and how habitat cover affects mortality threats. The value of gaining new information about these uncertainties was calculated using a deterministic matrix model of the koala population to find the expected population growth rate if koala mortality threats were optimally managed under alternative model hypotheses, which represented the uncertainties faced by koala managers. Gaining new information about survival and fecundity rates and the effect of habitat cover on mortality threats will do little to improve koala management. Across a range of management budgets, no more than 1·7% of the budget should be spent on resolving these uncertainties. The value of information was low because optimal management decisions were not sensitive to the uncertainties we considered. Decisions were instead driven by a substantial difference in the cost efficiency of management actions. The value of information was up to forty times higher when the cost efficiencies of different koala management actions were similar. Synthesis and applications. This study evaluates the ecological and financial benefits of gaining new information to inform a conservation problem. We also theoretically demonstrate that the value of reducing uncertainty is highest when it is not clear which management action is the most cost efficient. This study will help expand the use of value-of-information analyses in conservation by providing a cost efficiency metric by which to evaluate research or monitoring.

When choice matters: task-dependent memory effects in older adulthood.

PubMed

Depping, Miriam K; Freund, Alexandra M

2013-12-01

As goal orientation shifts across adulthood from a primary orientation toward gains to an increased importance of the prevention of losses, older adults' information processing may be particularly sensitive to potential losses if there is a possibility of avoiding them. In line with these motivational changes, we expected older adults to remember more loss-related information when choosing between 2 options than when not having to make a decision and when compared with younger adults. Using an incidental memory paradigm, we asked younger and older adults to recall as much information as possible of 2 previously presented hypothetical travel packages (Experiment 1) or 2 hospitals (Experiment 2) containing positive (gain-related), negative (loss-related), and neutral information in either a decision or a control condition (evaluating the readability of the texts). Experiment 1 showed that older adults remembered more negative information than younger adults and more negative than positive information in the choice but not in the control condition. Experiment 2 followed the same procedure using a choice between 2 hospitals for minor surgery. This choice was assumed to trigger a stronger orientation toward the prevention of losses than the choice between travel packages. As expected, in this situation, both age groups remembered more negative information relative to neutral and positive information regardless of the condition (choice vs. control). Importantly, older adults remembered more negative information in the choice condition compared with younger adults. Taken together, results suggest that the processing of decision-relevant information promotes a stronger focus on negative information in older adults. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Class Council between Democracy Learning and Character Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Budde, Jürgen; Weuster, Nora

2017-01-01

Purpose: Class council has become a popular approach for character education and democracy learning in German schools. However, it is not clear if the expectations are met in social practice. Approach: The data was gained with an ethnographical multiple method approach within three contrasting secondary schools. The study is informed by practice…

Globally optimal trial design for local decision making.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

2009-02-01

Value of information methods allows decision makers to identify efficient trial design following a principle of maximizing the expected value to decision makers of information from potential trial designs relative to their expected cost. However, in health technology assessment (HTA) the restrictive assumption has been made that, prospectively, there is only expected value of sample information from research commissioned within jurisdiction. This paper extends the framework for optimal trial design and decision making within jurisdiction to allow for optimal trial design across jurisdictions. This is illustrated in identifying an optimal trial design for decision making across the US, the UK and Australia for early versus late external cephalic version for pregnant women presenting in the breech position. The expected net gain from locally optimal trial designs of US$0.72M is shown to increase to US$1.14M with a globally optimal trial design. In general, the proposed method of globally optimal trial design improves on optimal trial design within jurisdictions by: (i) reflecting the global value of non-rival information; (ii) allowing optimal allocation of trial sample across jurisdictions; (iii) avoiding market failure associated with free-rider effects, sub-optimal spreading of fixed costs and heterogeneity of trial information with multiple trials. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An investigation of factors associated with fluid adherence among hemodialysis patients: a self-efficacy theory based approach.

PubMed

Brady, B A; Tucker, C M; Alfino, P A; Tarrant, D G; Finlayson, G C

1997-01-01

This research tested the hypothesis that fluid adherence (i.e. mean weekend interdialysis fluid weight gain) among adult chronic hemodialysis patients would have significant associations with fluid adherence efficacy expectation, fluid adherence outcome expectation, and fluid adherence motivation. The association of these variables with patients' medical characteristics was also examined. Results provide partial support for the hypothesis. Fluid adherence efficacy expectation was found to be a significant predictor of mean weekend interdialysis fluid weight gain (fluid adherence). Patients with higher fluid adherence efficacy expectations had lower mean weekend interdialysis fluid weight gains. However, fluid adherence outcome expectation and fluid adherence motivation were not found to be significant predictors of fluid adherence. Results also revealed that certain of the investigated medical characteristics were significantly associated with mean weekend interdialysis fluid weight gain and fluid adherence efficacy expectation. Implications for studying and modifying fluid adherence among hemodialysis patients are discussed.

Long-term care insurance: Does experience matter?

PubMed

Coe, Norma B; Skira, Meghan M; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

2015-03-01

We examine whether long-term care (LTC) experience helps explain the low demand for long-term care insurance (LTCI). We test if expectations about future informal care receipt, expectations about inheritance receipt, and LTCI purchase decisions vary between individuals whose parents or in-laws have used LTC versus those who have not. We find parental use of a nursing home decreases expectations that one's children will provide informal care, consistent with the demonstration effect. Nursing home use by in-laws does not have the same impact, suggesting that individuals are responding to information gained about their own aging trajectory. Nursing home use by either a parent or in-law increases LTCI purchase probability by 0.8 percentage points, with no significant difference in response between parents' and in-laws' use. The estimated increase in purchase probability from experience with LTC is about half the previously estimated increase from tax policy-induced price decreases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[A comparison of the causes of adult mortality and its effects on life-expectancy across the regions of Colombia].

PubMed

López, Elizabeth; Arce, Patricia

2008-09-01

When determining some populations state of health, an understanding of the causes of mortality is essential. Changes in mortality due to causes was established to determine their contribution to the life-expectancy by gender and region of the Colombian population aged 15 to 74, between 1985 and 1999, by gender and region. This was a descriptive, retrospective study; the sources of information were records of deaths from 1983 to 2001 and population projections according to Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística. The age selected as a sample population was 15 to 74. Changes in mortality were measured by using Eduardo Arriagas methodology, which is based on calculating temporary life-expectancy, absolute and relative change indices, and how changes in mortality due to cause of death contribute to life-expectancy. The main cause of reduced temporary life-expectancy in both genders was the increase in deaths by suicide, homicide and other violent causes (the reduction was greater for men than women in all regions studied). The greatest positive contribution to longevity was by the reduction in circulatory system diseases and accidents. A minimal gain in temporary life-expectancy was achieved as the positive affect of reduced mortality due to natural causes. This gain was annulled by the negative contributions of increased mortality due to suicide, homicide and other violent avoidable acts.

Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model

PubMed Central

Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

2016-01-01

A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system. PMID:27366146

Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model.

PubMed

Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

2016-01-01

A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system.

What constitutes responsiveness of physicians: A qualitative study in rural Bangladesh

PubMed Central

George, Asha; Ahmed, Syed Masud; Rashid, Sabina Faiz; Sarker, Malabika

2017-01-01

Responsiveness entails the social actions by health providers to meet the legitimate expectations of patients. It plays a critical role in ensuring continuity and effectiveness of care within people centered health systems. Given the lack of contextualized research on responsiveness, we qualitatively explored the perceptions of outpatient users and providers regarding what constitute responsiveness in rural Bangladesh. An exploratory study was undertaken in Chuadanga, a southwestern Bangladeshi District, involving in-depth interviews of physicians (n = 17) and users (n = 7), focus group discussions with users (n = 4), and observations of patient provider interactions (three weeks). Analysis was guided by a conceptual framework of responsiveness, which includes friendliness, respecting, informing and guiding, gaining trust and optimizing benefits. In terms of friendliness, patients expected physicians to greet them before starting consultations; even though physicians considered this unusual. Patients also expected physicians to hold social talks during consultations, which was uncommon. With regards to respect patients expected physicians to refrain from disrespecting them in various ways; but also by showing respect explicitly. Patients also had expectations related to informing and guiding: they desired explanation on at least the diagnosis, seriousness of illness, treatment and preventive steps. In gaining trust, patients expected that physicians would refrain from illegal or unethical activities related to patients, e.g., demanding money against free services, bringing patients in own private clinics by brokers (dalals), colluding with diagnostic centers, accepting gifts from pharmaceutical representatives. In terms of optimizing benefits: patients expected that physicians should be financially sensitive and consider individual need of patients. There were multiple dimensions of responsiveness- for some, stakeholders had a consensus; context was an important factor to understand them. This being an exploratory study, further research is recommended to validate the nuances of the findings. It can be a guideline for responsiveness practices, and a tipping point for future research. PMID:29253891

Gambling Outcome Expectancies and Gambling Behavior Among African-American Adolescents: Gender as a Moderating Variable.

PubMed

Simmons, Jessica L; Whelan, James P; Meyers, Andrew W; Wickwire, Emerson M

2016-03-01

Most high school adolescents have reported past year gambling, and males gamble more frequently and problematically than females. Ethnic minority adolescents appear to be gambling at a higher rate than Caucasian adolescents. There is evidence indicating that adolescent gambling outcome expectancies are correlated with gambling behavior, but limited evidence that this relation differs by gender. In the present study gender was evaluated as a moderator in the relation between gambling outcome expectancies and gambling behaviors in an African-American high school sample. Males gambled more frequently, gambled more problematically and held more positive gambling outcome expectancies than females. Gender was found to moderate the relations between gambling frequency and the expectations of material gain, affect, self-evaluation and parental approval. Gender also moderated the relations between gambling problems and expectations of affect and self-evaluation. These findings should inform future adolescent gambling prevention and intervention programs.

Student Gains in Self-Efficacy in an Advanced MSW Curriculum: A Customized Model for Outcomes Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rishel, Carrie W.; Majewski, Virginia

2009-01-01

The new Educational Policy and Accreditation Standards (EPAS) identify assessment as "an integral component of competency-based education." It is not new, however, that programs must demonstrate plans to assess attainment of competencies or expected program outcomes and show how data collection and analysis inform curriculum decisions. Previous…

The Case for Multiple Texts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cummins, Sunday

2017-01-01

Reading just one text on any topic, Cummins argues, isn't enough if we expect students to learn at deep levels about the topic, synthesize various sources of information, and gain the knowledge they need to write and speak seriously about the topic. Reading a second or third text expands a reader's knowledge on any topic or story--and the why…

Evolving Technology, Shifting Expectations: Cultivating Pedagogy for a Rapidly Changing GIS Landscape

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ricker, Britta; Thatcher, Jim

2017-01-01

As humans and natural processes continuously reshape the surface of the Earth, there is an unceasing need to document and analyze them through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The public is gaining more access to spatial technologies that were once only available to highly trained professionals. With technological evolution comes a…

Disruptive Effects of Net-Centricity on Command and Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

expectations too quickly are vulnerable to disruptive technologies . When the disruptive innovation gains market share, and old customers adopt new...it is important to remember that disruptive technologies are not merely those that have introduced steep performance improvements, but which, at the...technologies. Disruptive technologies are thereby distinguished from discontinuous sustaining innovations. Net-centric information environments are proving

Using Survival Analysis to Improve Estimates of Life Year Gains in Policy Evaluations.

PubMed

Meacock, Rachel; Sutton, Matt; Kristensen, Søren Rud; Harrison, Mark

2017-05-01

Policy evaluations taking a lifetime horizon have converted estimated changes in short-term mortality to expected life year gains using general population life expectancy. However, the life expectancy of the affected patients may differ from the general population. In trials, survival models are commonly used to extrapolate life year gains. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility and materiality of using parametric survival models to extrapolate future survival in health care policy evaluations. We used our previous cost-effectiveness analysis of a pay-for-performance program as a motivating example. We first used the cohort of patients admitted prior to the program to compare 3 methods for estimating remaining life expectancy. We then used a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the life year gains associated with the program using general population life expectancy and survival models. Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics was utilized for patients admitted to hospitals in England for pneumonia between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 and between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2010, and linked to death records for the period from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2011. In our cohort of patients, using parametric survival models rather than general population life expectancy figures reduced the estimated mean life years remaining by 30% (9.19 v. 13.15 years, respectively). However, the estimated mean life year gains associated with the program are larger using survival models (0.380 years) compared to using general population life expectancy (0.154 years). Using general population life expectancy to estimate the impact of health care policies can overestimate life expectancy but underestimate the impact of policies on life year gains. Using a longer follow-up period improved the accuracy of estimated survival and program impact considerably.

Umbilical Cord Blood: Information for Childbirth Educators

PubMed Central

Waller-Wise, Renece

2011-01-01

Umbilical cord blood was once thought of as a waste product. Now, years after the first successful umbilical cord blood transplant, more families seek information about whether or not to save their newborn’s cord blood. Childbirth educators may be one of the main sources that an expectant family depends on to gain more knowledge about cord blood banking in order to make an informed decision. Preserving umbilical cord blood in public banks is advisable for any family; however, it is recommended that expectant families only consider private cord blood banking when they have a relative with a known disorder that is treatable by stem cell transplants. The childbirth educator is encouraged to be well versed on the topic of cord blood banking, so that as questions from class participants arise, the topic can be explored and addressed appropriately. PMID:22211060

Website Quality, Expectation, Confirmation, and End User Satisfaction: The Knowledge-Intensive Website of the Korean National Cancer Information Center

PubMed Central

Koo, Chulmo; Wati, Yulia; Park, Keeho

2011-01-01

Background The fact that patient satisfaction with primary care clinical practices and physician-patient communications has decreased gradually has brought a new opportunity to the online channel as a supplementary service to provide additional information. Objective In this study, our objectives were to examine the process of cognitive knowledge expectation-confirmation from eHealth users and to recommend the attributes of a “knowledge-intensive website.”. Knowledge expectation can be defined as users’ existing attitudes or beliefs regarding expected levels of knowledge they may gain by accessing the website. Knowledge confirmation is the extent to which user’s knowledge expectation of information systems use is realized during actual use. In our hypothesized research model, perceived information quality, presentation and attractiveness as well as knowledge expectation influence knowledge confirmation, which in turn influences perceived usefulness and end user satisfaction, which feeds back to knowledge expectation. Methods An empirical study was conducted at the National Cancer Center (NCC), Republic of Korea (South Korea), by evaluating its official website. A user survey was administered containing items to measure subjectively perceived website quality and expectation-confirmation attributes. A study sample of 198 usable responses was used for further analysis. We used the structural equation model to test the proposed research model. Results Knowledge expectation exhibited a positive effect on knowledge confirmation (beta = .27, P < .001). The paths from information quality, information presentation, and website attractiveness to knowledge confirmation were also positive and significant (beta = .24, P < .001; beta = .29, P < .001; beta = .18, P < .001, respectively). Moreover, the effect of knowledge confirmation on perceived usefulness was also positively significant (beta = .64, P < .001). Knowledge expectation together with knowledge confirmation and perceived usefulness also significantly affected end user satisfaction (beta = .22 P < .001; beta = .39, P < .001; beta = .25, P < .001, respectively). Conclusions Theoretically, this study has (1) identified knowledge-intensive website attributes, (2) enhanced the theoretical foundation of eHealth from the information systems (IS) perspective by adopting the expectation-confirmation theory (ECT), and (3) examined the importance of information and knowledge attributes and explained their impact on user satisfaction. Practically, our empirical results suggest that perceived website quality (ie, information quality, information presentation, and website attractiveness) is a core requirement for knowledge building. In addition, our study has also shown that knowledge confirmation has a greater effect on satisfaction than both knowledge expectation and perceived usefulness. PMID:22047810

Estimating sign-dependent societal preferences for quality of life.

PubMed

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; l'Haridon, Olivier; Pinto, Jose Luis

2015-09-01

This paper is the first to apply prospect theory to societal health-related decision making. In particular, we allow for utility curvature, equity weighting, sign-dependence, and loss aversion in choices concerning quality of life of other people. We find substantial inequity aversion, both for gains and losses, which can be attributed to both diminishing marginal utility and differential weighting of better-off and worse-off. There are also clear framing effects, which violate expected utility. Moreover, we observe loss aversion, indicating that subjects give more weight to one group's loss than another group's gain of the same absolute magnitude. We also elicited some information on the effect of the age of the studied group. The amount of inequity aversion is to some extent influenced by the age of the considered patients. In particular, more inequity aversion is observed for gains of older people than gains of younger people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast Bayesian experimental design: Laplace-based importance sampling for the expected information gain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Joakim; Dia, Ben Mansour; Espath, Luis F. R.; Long, Quan; Tempone, Raúl

2018-06-01

In calculating expected information gain in optimal Bayesian experimental design, the computation of the inner loop in the classical double-loop Monte Carlo requires a large number of samples and suffers from underflow if the number of samples is small. These drawbacks can be avoided by using an importance sampling approach. We present a computationally efficient method for optimal Bayesian experimental design that introduces importance sampling based on the Laplace method to the inner loop. We derive the optimal values for the method parameters in which the average computational cost is minimized according to the desired error tolerance. We use three numerical examples to demonstrate the computational efficiency of our method compared with the classical double-loop Monte Carlo, and a more recent single-loop Monte Carlo method that uses the Laplace method as an approximation of the return value of the inner loop. The first example is a scalar problem that is linear in the uncertain parameter. The second example is a nonlinear scalar problem. The third example deals with the optimal sensor placement for an electrical impedance tomography experiment to recover the fiber orientation in laminate composites.

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior

PubMed Central

Brown, Jeffrey R.; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2017-01-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a “breakeven analysis” encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others. PMID:28579641

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior.

PubMed

Brown, Jeffrey R; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S

2016-03-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a "breakeven analysis" encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others.

Identifying effective actions to guide volunteer-based and nationwide conservation efforts for a ground-nesting farmland bird.

PubMed

Santangeli, Andrea; Arroyo, Beatriz; Millon, Alexandre; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2015-08-01

1. Modern farming practices threaten wildlife in different ways, and failure to identify the complexity of multiple threats acting in synergy may result in ineffective management. To protect ground-nesting birds in farmland, monitoring and mitigating impacts of mechanical harvesting is crucial. 2. Here, we use 6 years of data from a nationwide volunteer-based monitoring scheme of the Montagu's harrier, a ground-nesting raptor, in French farmlands. We assess the effectiveness of alternative nest protection measures and map their potential benefit to the species. 3. We show that unprotected nests in cultivated land are strongly negatively affected by harvesting and thus require active management. Further, we show that protection from harvesting alone (e.g. by leaving a small unharvested buffer around the nest) is impaired by post-harvest predation at nests that become highly conspicuous after harvest. Measures that simultaneously protect from harvesting and predation (by adding a fence around the nest) significantly enhance nest productivity. 4. The map of expected gain from nest protection in relation to available volunteers' workforce pinpoints large areas of high expected gain from nest protection that are not matched by equally high workforce availability. This mismatch suggests that the impact of nest protection can be further improved by increasing volunteer efforts in key areas where they are low relative to the expected gain they could have. 5. Synthesis and applications . This study shows that synergistic interplay of multiple factors (e.g. mechanical harvesting and predation) may completely undermine the success of well-intentioned conservation efforts. However, identifying areas where the greatest expected gains can be achieved relative to effort expended can minimize the risk of wasted volunteer actions. Overall, this study underscores the importance of citizen science for collecting large-scale data useful for producing science and ultimately informs large-scale evidence-based conservation actions within an adaptive management framework.

Learning about Expectation Violation from Prediction Error Paradigms – A Meta-Analysis on Brain Processes Following a Prediction Error

PubMed Central

D’Astolfo, Lisa; Rief, Winfried

2017-01-01

Modifying patients’ expectations by exposing them to expectation violation situations (thus maximizing the difference between the expected and the actual situational outcome) is proposed to be a crucial mechanism for therapeutic success for a variety of different mental disorders. However, clinical observations suggest that patients often maintain their expectations regardless of experiences contradicting their expectations. It remains unclear which information processing mechanisms lead to modification or persistence of patients’ expectations. Insight in the processing could be provided by Neuroimaging studies investigating prediction error (PE, i.e., neuronal reactions to non-expected stimuli). Two methods are often used to investigate the PE: (1) paradigms, in which participants passively observe PEs (”passive” paradigms) and (2) paradigms, which encourage a behavioral adaptation following a PE (“active” paradigms). These paradigms are similar to the methods used to induce expectation violations in clinical settings: (1) the confrontation with an expectation violation situation and (2) an enhanced confrontation in which the patient actively challenges his expectation. We used this similarity to gain insight in the different neuronal processing of the two PE paradigms. We performed a meta-analysis contrasting neuronal activity of PE paradigms encouraging a behavioral adaptation following a PE and paradigms enforcing passiveness following a PE. We found more neuronal activity in the striatum, the insula and the fusiform gyrus in studies encouraging behavioral adaptation following a PE. Due to the involvement of reward assessment and avoidance learning associated with the striatum and the insula we propose that the deliberate execution of action alternatives following a PE is associated with the integration of new information into previously existing expectations, therefore leading to an expectation change. While further research is needed to directly assess expectations of participants, this study provides new insights into the information processing mechanisms following an expectation violation. PMID:28804467

Learning about Expectation Violation from Prediction Error Paradigms - A Meta-Analysis on Brain Processes Following a Prediction Error.

PubMed

D'Astolfo, Lisa; Rief, Winfried

2017-01-01

Modifying patients' expectations by exposing them to expectation violation situations (thus maximizing the difference between the expected and the actual situational outcome) is proposed to be a crucial mechanism for therapeutic success for a variety of different mental disorders. However, clinical observations suggest that patients often maintain their expectations regardless of experiences contradicting their expectations. It remains unclear which information processing mechanisms lead to modification or persistence of patients' expectations. Insight in the processing could be provided by Neuroimaging studies investigating prediction error (PE, i.e., neuronal reactions to non-expected stimuli). Two methods are often used to investigate the PE: (1) paradigms, in which participants passively observe PEs ("passive" paradigms) and (2) paradigms, which encourage a behavioral adaptation following a PE ("active" paradigms). These paradigms are similar to the methods used to induce expectation violations in clinical settings: (1) the confrontation with an expectation violation situation and (2) an enhanced confrontation in which the patient actively challenges his expectation. We used this similarity to gain insight in the different neuronal processing of the two PE paradigms. We performed a meta-analysis contrasting neuronal activity of PE paradigms encouraging a behavioral adaptation following a PE and paradigms enforcing passiveness following a PE. We found more neuronal activity in the striatum, the insula and the fusiform gyrus in studies encouraging behavioral adaptation following a PE. Due to the involvement of reward assessment and avoidance learning associated with the striatum and the insula we propose that the deliberate execution of action alternatives following a PE is associated with the integration of new information into previously existing expectations, therefore leading to an expectation change. While further research is needed to directly assess expectations of participants, this study provides new insights into the information processing mechanisms following an expectation violation.

A Genomic Selection Index Applied to Simulated and Real Data

PubMed Central

Ceron-Rojas, J. Jesus; Crossa, José; Arief, Vivi N.; Basford, Kaye; Rutkoski, Jessica; Jarquín, Diego; Alvarado, Gregorio; Beyene, Yoseph; Semagn, Kassa; DeLacy, Ian

2015-01-01

A genomic selection index (GSI) is a linear combination of genomic estimated breeding values that uses genomic markers to predict the net genetic merit and select parents from a nonphenotyped testing population. Some authors have proposed a GSI; however, they have not used simulated or real data to validate the GSI theory and have not explained how to estimate the GSI selection response and the GSI expected genetic gain per selection cycle for the unobserved traits after the first selection cycle to obtain information about the genetic gains in each subsequent selection cycle. In this paper, we develop the theory of a GSI and apply it to two simulated and four real data sets with four traits. Also, we numerically compare its efficiency with that of the phenotypic selection index (PSI) by using the ratio of the GSI response over the PSI response, and the PSI and GSI expected genetic gain per selection cycle for observed and unobserved traits, respectively. In addition, we used the Technow inequality to compare GSI vs. PSI efficiency. Results from the simulated data were confirmed by the real data, indicating that GSI was more efficient than PSI per unit of time. PMID:26290571

Potential Gains in Life Expectancy from Reductions in Leading Causes of Death, Los Angeles County: a Quantitative Approach to Identify Candidate Diseases for Prevention and Burden Disparities Elimination.

PubMed

Ho, Alex; Hameed, Heena; Lee, Alice W; Shih, Margaret

2016-09-01

Despite overall gains in life expectancy at birth among Los Angeles County residents, significant disparities persist across population subgroups. The purpose of this study was to quantify the potential sex- and race/ethnicity-specific gains in life expectancy had we been able to fully or partially eliminate the leading causes of death in Los Angeles County. Complete annual life tables for local residents were generated by applying the same method used for the National Center of Health Statistics US life tables published in 1999. Based on 2010 Los Angeles County mortality records, sex- and race/ethnicity-specific potential gains in life expectancy were calculated using scenarios of 10, 20, 50, and 100 % elimination of 12 major causes of death. Coronary heart disease, the leading cause of death, was found to be most impactful on life expectancy. Its hypothetical full elimination would result in life expectancy gains ranging from 2.2 years among white females to 3.7 years among black males. Gains from complete elimination of lung cancer and stroke ranked second, with almost an additional year of life for each gender. However, marked disparities across racial/ethnic groups were noted from the elimination of several other causes of death, such as homicide, from which the gain among black males exceeded 13 times more than their white counterparts. By differentially targeting specific causes of death in disease prevention, not only can findings of this study aid in efficiently narrowing racial/ethnic disparities, they can also provide a quantitative means to identify and rank priorities in local health policymaking.

Injured workers' perception of loss and gain in the return to work process.

PubMed

Lai, Hon Sun; Szeto, Grace Py; Chan, Chetwyn Ch

2017-01-01

When a worker is injured at work, he has to face a tough decision-making process about when and how to return to work (RTW). This study tests how the prospect theory can be applied to influence the injured workers' perceptions about this important choice. One hundred forty-one injured workers were presented with wage- and pain-related information in four different message framing (negatively or positively) and precision (smaller or larger number) conditions. After exposure to the specific combination of this wage and pain information, the participants were asked to express intentions to RTW in terms of perceived chance, confidence, and anticipated sick leave duration. When asked to predict their RTW outcome, 101 participants (72.3%) responded favorably, whereas only 40 (27.7%) indicated an expectation for staying on sick leave. The present results did not show significant differences in the participants' responses to the positively and negatively framed information about wage and pain. However, it was noted that the control group that was presented with positive framing for both "wage" and "pain" information showed higher scores in expectation and confidence for RTW, whereas the Ambivalent Group that had both negative messages showed lower scores. Seventy-nine participants who had ≥60% perceived improvement in condition were selected for further analysis, and those who were presented with "wage loss" information rated significantly higher perceived chance of RTW than those in the "pain gain" group. More in-depth investigation is warranted on this topic, with a larger sample of injured workers to investigate the effects of message framing on the decision-making process about RTW.

Pilfering Eurasian jays use visual and acoustic information to locate caches.

PubMed

Shaw, Rachael C; Clayton, Nicola S

2014-11-01

Pilfering corvids use observational spatial memory to accurately locate caches that they have seen another individual make. Accordingly, many corvid cache-protection strategies limit the transfer of visual information to potential thieves. Eurasian jays (Garrulus glandarius) employ strategies that reduce the amount of visual and auditory information that is available to competitors. Here, we test whether or not the jays recall and use both visual and auditory information when pilfering other birds' caches. When jays had no visual or acoustic information about cache locations, the proportion of available caches that they found did not differ from the proportion expected if jays were searching at random. By contrast, after observing and listening to a conspecific caching in gravel or sand, jays located a greater proportion of caches, searched more frequently in the correct substrate type and searched in fewer empty locations to find the first cache than expected. After only listening to caching in gravel and sand, jays also found a larger proportion of caches and searched in the substrate type where they had heard caching take place more frequently than expected. These experiments demonstrate that Eurasian jays possess observational spatial memory and indicate that pilfering jays may gain information about cache location merely by listening to caching. This is the first evidence that a corvid may use recalled acoustic information to locate and pilfer caches.

Relations between information, time, and value of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijs, S. V.; Galindo, L. C.

2015-12-01

This research uses with stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as a tool to reveal economic information about managed water resources. An application to the operation of an example hydropower reservoir is presented. SDP explicitly balances the marginal value of water for immediate use and its expected opportunity cost of not having more water available for future use. The result of an SDP analysis is a steady state policy, which gives the optimal decision as a function of the state. A commonly applied form gives the optimal release as a function of the month, current reservoir level and current inflow to the reservoir. The steady state policy can be complemented with a real-time management strategy, that can depend on more real-time information. An information-theoretical perspective is given on how this information influences the value of water, and how to deal with that influence in hydropower reservoir optimization. This results in some conjectures about how the information gain from real-time operation could affect the optimal long term policy. Another issue is the sharing of increased benefits that result from this information gain in a multi-objective setting. It is argued that this should be accounted for in negotiations about an operation policy.

Motivation and expectations of German and British nurses embarking on a masters programme.

PubMed

Watkins, Dianne

2011-01-01

This paper reports on findings from a qualitative study which explores why British and German nurses embarked on a Masters in Nursing Studies programme and their expectations from such a course. Semi structured interviews were undertaken with ten German and nine British nurses in venues across Germany and the United Kingdom, and interview transcripts analysed using a 'template approach'. Findings indicate that nurses sought a personal and professional challenge, with more German nurses embarking on the course for professional reasons associated with career enhancement. UK nurses attended to upgrade their knowledge and skills above that of the pre-registration student, and nurses from both countries hoped that an MSc. would increase their credibility and result in personal achievement. German nurses were attracted to learning about 'nursing science', receiving an award from a UK university and being able to access the course in Germany. Both groups of nurses expected to gain insight into the evidence base for practice and how this could be utilised to improve their work. The information gained from this study can be utilised by nurse educationalists in aiding recruitment and developing Masters curricula. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of childbirth expectations in Spanish pregnant women.

PubMed

Peñacoba-Puente, Cecilia; Carmona-Monge, Francisco Javier; Marín-Morales, Dolores; Écija Gallardo, Carmen

2016-02-01

To analyze the change of childbirth expectations over the course of pregnancy as well as their relation to socio-demographic and clinical variables. The study of expectations in pregnant women is gaining more interest from a biopsychosocial approach because of its consequences on pregnant women's wellbeing. To our knowledge there are no previous studies analyzing the evolution of childbirth expectations over the course of pregnancy. Longitudinal study (first trimester and third trimester). Women were evaluated for childbirth expectations in their first trimester (n=285) and third trimester (n=122) of pregnancy. They also completed questionnaires collecting socio-demographic information. Childbirth expectations appear to remain more or less stable over the course of pregnancy, although they tend to become slightly negative at the end of gestation, specifically referring to personal control and delivery circumstances. Multiparity and planned pregnancy are associated with higher positive expectations. It seems essential to explore and to try to adjust childbirth expectations to more realistic ones, in order for them to be fulfilled. Midwives and other maternity healthcare providers play a key role in this regard. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ultimate open pit stochastic optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcotte, Denis; Caron, Josiane

2013-02-01

Classical open pit optimization (maximum closure problem) is made on block estimates, without directly considering the block grades uncertainty. We propose an alternative approach of stochastic optimization. The stochastic optimization is taken as the optimal pit computed on the block expected profits, rather than expected grades, computed from a series of conditional simulations. The stochastic optimization generates, by construction, larger ore and waste tonnages than the classical optimization. Contrary to the classical approach, the stochastic optimization is conditionally unbiased for the realized profit given the predicted profit. A series of simulated deposits with different variograms are used to compare the stochastic approach, the classical approach and the simulated approach that maximizes expected profit among simulated designs. Profits obtained with the stochastic optimization are generally larger than the classical or simulated pit. The main factor controlling the relative gain of stochastic optimization compared to classical approach and simulated pit is shown to be the information level as measured by the boreholes spacing/range ratio. The relative gains of the stochastic approach over the classical approach increase with the treatment costs but decrease with mining costs. The relative gains of the stochastic approach over the simulated pit approach increase both with the treatment and mining costs. At early stages of an open pit project, when uncertainty is large, the stochastic optimization approach appears preferable to the classical approach or the simulated pit approach for fair comparison of the values of alternative projects and for the initial design and planning of the open pit.

Impact of bariatric surgery on life expectancy in severely obese patients with diabetes: A Decision analysis

PubMed Central

Schauer, Daniel P.; Arterburn, David E.; Livingston, Edward H.; Coleman, Karen J.; Sidney, Steve; Fisher, David; O'Connor, Patrick; Fischer, David; Eckman, Mark H.

2014-01-01

Objective To create a decision analytic model to estimate the balance between treatment risks and benefits for severely obese patients with diabetes. Summary Background Data Bariatric surgery leads to many desirable metabolic changes, but long-term impact of bariatric surgery on life expectancy in patients with diabetes has not yet been quantified. Methods We developed a Markov state transition model with multiple Cox proportional hazards models and logistic regression models as inputs to compare bariatric surgery versus no surgical treatment for severely obese diabetic patients. The model is informed by data from three large cohorts: 1) 159,000 severely obese diabetic patients (4,185 had bariatric surgery) from 3 HMO Research Network sites, 2) 23,000 subjects from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), and 3) 18,000 subjects from the National Health Interview Survey linked to the National Death Index. Results In our main analyses, we found that a 45 year-old female with diabetes and a BMI of 45 kg/m2 gained an additional 6.7 years of life expectancy with bariatric surgery (38.4 years with surgery vs. 31.7 without). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the gain in life expectancy decreased with increasing BMI, until a BMI of 62 kg/m2 is reached, at which point nonsurgical treatment was associated with greater life expectancy. Similar results were seen for both men and women in all age groups. Conclusions For most severely obese patients with diabetes, bariatric surgery appears to improve life expectancy; however, surgery may reduce life expectancy for the super obese with BMIs over 62 kg/m2. PMID:25844968

The medical and economic consequences of automation in bacteriology: a case study in a French university hospital.

PubMed

Sailly, J C; Lebrun, T; Vincent, P; Eeckhoudt, L; Izard, D; Leclerc, H; Arbon, G; Hassoun, A

1985-01-01

In a bacteriology laboratory where automated and non-automated procedures co-existed during the study period (1 year), patients were randomly assigned to each type of procedure and we observed the physicians behaviour as well as patients well-being in a surgical service using the results from the laboratory. Contrary to our expectations, the reduction in the time delay necessary to obtain information did not alter either the prescribing behaviour of physicians nor the welfare of patients. Besides, the gain in time was significantly lower than expected. We also discuss in detail the meaning and relevance of the results.

Framing effects and risky decisions in starlings.

PubMed

Marsh, Barnaby; Kacelnik, Alex

2002-03-05

Animals are predominantly risk prone toward reward delays and risk averse toward reward amounts. Humans in turn tend to be risk-seeking for losses and risk averse for gains. To explain the human results, Prospect Theory postulates a convex utility for losses and concave utility for gains. In contrast, Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) explains the animal data by postulating that the cognitive representation of outcomes follows Weber's Law, namely that the spread of the distribution of expected outcomes is proportional to its mean. SUT also would explain human results if utility (even if it is linear on expected outcome) followed Weber's Law. We present an experiment that simulates losses and gains in a bird, the European Starling, to test the implication of SUT that risk proneness/aversion should extend to any aversive/desirable dimension other than time and amount of reward. Losses and gains were simulated by offering choices of fixed vs. variable outcomes with lower or higher outcomes than what the birds expected. The subjects were significantly more risk prone for losses than for gains but, against expectations, they were not significantly risk averse toward gains. The results are thus, in part, consistent with Prospect Theory and SUT and show that risk attitude in humans and birds may obey a common fundamental principle.

Early repositioning through compound set enrichment analysis: a knowledge-recycling strategy.

PubMed

Temesi, Gergely; Bolgár, Bence; Arany, Adám; Szalai, Csaba; Antal, Péter; Mátyus, Péter

2014-04-01

Despite famous serendipitous drug repositioning success stories, systematic projects have not yet delivered the expected results. However, repositioning technologies are gaining ground in different phases of routine drug development, together with new adaptive strategies. We demonstrate the power of the compound information pool, the ever-growing heterogeneous information repertoire of approved drugs and candidates as an invaluable catalyzer in this transition. Systematic, computational utilization of this information pool for candidates in early phases is an open research problem; we propose a novel application of the enrichment analysis statistical framework for fusion of this information pool, specifically for the prediction of indications. Pharmaceutical consequences are formulated for a systematic and continuous knowledge recycling strategy, utilizing this information pool throughout the drug-discovery pipeline.

Costs and expected gain in lifetime health from intensive care versus general ward care of 30,712 individual patients: a distribution-weighted cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Lindemark, Frode; Haaland, Øystein A; Kvåle, Reidar; Flaatten, Hans; Norheim, Ole F; Johansson, Kjell A

2017-08-21

Clinicians, hospital managers, policy makers, and researchers are concerned about high costs, increased demand, and variation in priorities in the intensive care unit (ICU). The objectives of this modelling study are to describe the extra costs and expected health gains associated with admission to the ICU versus the general ward for 30,712 patients and the variation in cost-effectiveness estimates among subgroups and individuals, and to perform a distribution-weighted economic evaluation incorporating extra weighting to patients with high severity of disease. We used a decision-analytic model that estimates the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (ICER) from ICU admission compared with general ward care using Norwegian registry data from 2008 to 2010. We assigned increasing weights to health gains for those with higher severity of disease, defined as less expected lifetime health if not admitted. The study has inherent uncertainty of findings because a randomized clinical trial comparing patients admitted or rejected to the ICU has never been performed. Uncertainty is explored in probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The mean cost-effectiveness of ICU admission versus ward care was €11,600/QALY, with 1.6 QALYs gained and an incremental cost of €18,700 per patient. The probability (p) of cost-effectiveness was 95% at a threshold of €22,000/QALY. The mean ICER for medical admissions was €10,700/QALY (p = 97%), €12,300/QALY (p = 93%) for admissions after acute surgery, and €14,700/QALY (p = 84%) after planned surgery. For individualized ICERs, there was a 50% probability that ICU admission was cost-effective for 85% of the patients at a threshold of €64,000/QALY, leaving 15% of the admissions not cost-effective. In the distributional evaluation, 8% of all patients had distribution-weighted ICERs (higher weights to gains for more severe conditions) above €64,000/QALY. High-severity admissions gained the most, and were more cost-effective. On average, ICU admission versus general ward care was cost-effective at a threshold of €22,000/QALY (p = 95%). According to the individualized cost-effectiveness information, one in six ICU admissions was not cost-effective at a threshold of €64,000/QALY. Almost half of these admissions that were not cost-effective can be regarded as acceptable when weighted by severity of disease in terms of expected lifetime health. Overall, existing ICU services represent reasonable resource use, but considerable uncertainty becomes evident when disaggregating into individualized results.

Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households

PubMed Central

Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

2013-01-01

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households’ stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses. PMID:23997423

Why Was General Richard O’Connor’s Command in Northwest Europe Less Effective Than Expected?

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources ...this source of oil the British war effort would quickly grind to a halt. The region gained further importance because of the advantage it offered...considered impassable to armored formations.88 After heavy fighting on ground that suited a dismounted infantry defense, the Australian Division

Impacts of Maximizing Tendencies on Experience-Based Decisions.

PubMed

Rim, Hye Bin

2017-06-01

Previous research on risky decisions has suggested that people tend to make different choices depending on whether they acquire the information from personally repeated experiences or from statistical summary descriptions. This phenomenon, called as a description-experience gap, was expected to be moderated by the individual difference in maximizing tendencies, a desire towards maximizing decisional outcome. Specifically, it was hypothesized that maximizers' willingness to engage in extensive information searching would lead maximizers to make experience-based decisions as payoff distributions were given explicitly. A total of 262 participants completed four decision problems. Results showed that maximizers, compared to non-maximizers, drew more samples before making a choice but reported lower confidence levels on both the accuracy of knowledge gained from experiences and the likelihood of satisfactory outcomes. Additionally, maximizers exhibited smaller description-experience gaps than non-maximizers as expected. The implications of the findings and unanswered questions for future research were discussed.

Framing effects in choices between multioutcome life-expectancy lotteries.

PubMed

Bernstein, L M; Chapman, G B; Elstein, A S

1999-01-01

To explore framing or editing effects and a method to debias framing in a clinical context. Clinical scenarios using multioutcome life-expectancy lotteries of equal value required choices between two supplementary drugs that either prolonged or shortened life from the 20-year beneficial effect of a baseline drug. The effects of these supplementary drugs were presented in two conditions, using a between-subjects design. In segregated editing (n = 116) the effects were presented separately from the effects of the baseline drug. In integrated editing (n = 100), effects of supplementary and baseline drugs were combined in the lottery presentation. Each subject responded to 30 problems. To explore one method of debiasing, another 100 subjects made choices after viewing both segregated and integrated editings of 20 problems (dual framing). Statistically significant preference reversals between segregated and integrated editing of pure lotteries occurred only when one framing placed outcomes in the gain domain, and the other framing placed them in the loss domain. When both editings resulted in gain-domain outcomes only, there was no framing effect. There was a related relationship of framing-effect shifts from losses to gains in mixed-lottery-choice problems. Responses to the dual framing condition did not consistently coincide with responses to either single framing. In some situations, dual framing eliminated or lessened framing effects. The results support two components of prospect theory, coding outcomes as gains or losses from a reference point, and an s-shaped utility function (concave in gain, convex in loss domains). Presenting both alternative editings of a complex situation prior to choice more fully informs the decision maker and may help to reduce framing effects. Given the extent to which preferences shift in response to alternative presentations, it is unclear which choice represents the subject's "true preferences."

Overview of the Telescience Testbed Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasmussen, Daryl N.; Mian, Arshad; Leiner, Barry M.

1991-01-01

The NASA's Telescience Testbed Program (TTP) conducted by the Ames Research Center is described with particular attention to the objectives, the approach used to achieve these objectives, and the expected benefits of the program. The goal of the TTP is to gain operational experience for the Space Station Freedom and the Earth Observing System programs, using ground testbeds, and to define the information and communication systems requirements for the development and operation of these programs. The results of TTP are expected to include the requirements for the remote coaching, command and control, monitoring and maintenance, payload design, and operations management. In addition, requirements for technologies such as workstations, software, video, automation, data management, and networking will be defined.

Longevity in Slovenia: Past and potential gains in life expectancy by age and causes of death.

PubMed

Lotrič Dolinar, Aleša; Došenović Bonča, Petra; Sambt, Jože

2017-06-01

In Slovenia, longevity is increasing rapidly. From 1997 to 2014, life expectancy at birth increased by 7 and 5 years for men and women, respectively. This paper explores how this gain in life expectancy at birth can be attributed to reduced mortality from five major groups of causes of death by 5-year age groups. It also estimates potential future gains in life expectancy at birth. The importance of the five major causes of death was analysed by cause-elimination life tables. The total elimination of individual causes of death and a partial hypothetical adjustment of mortality to Spanish levels were analysed, along with age and cause decomposition (Pollard). During the 1997-2014 period, the increase in life expectancy at birth was due to lower mortality from circulatory diseases (ages above 60, both genders), as well as from lower mortality from neoplasms (ages above 50 years) and external causes (between 20 and 50 years) for men. However, considering the potential future gains in life expectancy at birth, by far the strongest effect can be attributed to lower mortality due to circulatory diseases for both genders. If Spanish mortality rates were reached, life expectancy at birth would increase by more than 2 years, again mainly because of lower mortality from circulatory diseases in very old ages. Life expectancy analyses can improve evidence-based decision-making and allocation of resources among different prevention programmes and measures for more effective disease management that can also reduce the economic burden of chronic diseases.

Impact of Pregnancy-Related Deaths on Female Life Expectancy in Zambia: Application of Life Table Techniques to Census Data

PubMed Central

Banda, Richard; Sandøy, Ingvild Fossgard; Fylkesnes, Knut; Janssen, Fanny

2015-01-01

Introduction Since 2000, the world has been coalesced around efforts to reduce maternal mortality. However, few studies have estimated the significance of eliminating maternal deaths on female life expectancy. We estimated, based on census data, the potential gains in female life expectancy assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related mortality in Zambia. Methods We used data on all-cause and pregnancy-related deaths of females aged 15–49 reported in the Zambia 2010 census, and evaluated, adjusted and smoothed them using existing and verified techniques. We used associated single decrement life tables, assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths to estimate the potential gains in female life expectancy at birth, at age 15, and over the ages 15–49. We compared these gains with the gains from eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, violence and suicide. Results Complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths would extend life expectancy at birth among Zambian women by 1.35 years and life expectancy at age 15 by 1.65 years. In rural areas, this would be 1.69 years and 2.19 years, respectively, and in urban areas, 0.78 years and 0.85 years. An additional 0.72 years would be spent in the reproductive age group 15–49; 1.00 years in rural areas and 0.35 years in urban areas. Eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, suicide and violence among women aged 15–49 would cumulatively contribute 0.55 years to female life expectancy at birth. Conclusion Eliminating pregnancy-related mortality would extend female life expectancy in Zambia substantially, with more gains among adolescents and females in rural areas. The application of life table techniques to census data proved very valuable, although rigorous evaluation and adjustment of reported deaths and age was necessary to attain plausible estimates. The collection of detailed high quality cause-specific mortality data in future censuses is indispensable. PMID:26513160

The evolution of teaching.

PubMed

Fogarty, L; Strimling, P; Laland, K N

2011-10-01

Teaching, alongside imitation, is widely thought to underlie the success of humanity by allowing high-fidelity transmission of information, skills, and technology between individuals, facilitating both cumulative knowledge gain and normative culture. Yet, it remains a mystery why teaching should be widespread in human societies but extremely rare in other animals. We explore the evolution of teaching using simple genetic models in which a single tutor transmits adaptive information to a related pupil at a cost. Teaching is expected to evolve where its costs are outweighed by the inclusive fitness benefits that result from the tutor's relatives being more likely to acquire the valuable information. We find that teaching is not favored where the pupil can easily acquire the information on its own, or through copying others, or for difficult to learn traits, where teachers typically do not possess the information to pass on to relatives. This leads to a narrow range of traits for which teaching would be efficacious, which helps to explain the rarity of teaching in nature, its unusual distribution, and its highly specific nature. Further models that allow for cumulative cultural knowledge gain suggest that teaching evolved in humans because cumulative culture renders otherwise difficult-to-acquire valuable information available to teach. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Impact of Framing on Intentions to Vaccinate Daughters against HPV: A Cross-Cultural Perspective

PubMed Central

Lechuga, Julia; Weinhardt, Lance S.; Swain, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Cervical cancer incidence is marked by severe racial and ethnic disparities. Effective promotion of the recently licensed HPV vaccine across ethnic/racial groups may help curtail disparities. The purpose of this research was to investigate mothers’ intentions to vaccinate daughters against HPV as a function of message framing (gain versus loss) across three cultural groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic White, and non-Hispanic African-American. One hundred fifty mothers were recruited from WIC clinics in Wisconsin and asked to respond to information about the HPV vaccine for their daughters. In a repeated-measures experiment, two different frames (gain and loss) were used to present the information. Consistent with our expectations, results indicated that both frames are equally effective in promoting vaccination intentions in non-Hispanic White Mothers. Conversely, a loss frame message was more effective in non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic mothers. These results suggest that current information sharing campaigns, aimed at promoting the HPV vaccine among ethnic minority groups, should be modified to not focus exclusively on the benefits of vaccination. PMID:21533624

Expectancy of Therapeutic Gain: An Empirical and Conceptual Critique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilkins, Wallace

1973-01-01

The client's expectancy of improvement is regarded as an explanatory construct accounting, in part, for actual psychotherapeutic improvement. Issues involving the conditions under which expectancy effects have been demonstrated, the circular definition of expectancy, the attribution of causality to expectancy, expectancy versus prediction, and the…

The Value of Heterogeneity for Cost-Effectiveness Subgroup Analysis

PubMed Central

Manca, Andrea; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark J.

2014-01-01

This article develops a general framework to guide the use of subgroup cost-effectiveness analysis for decision making in a collectively funded health system. In doing so, it addresses 2 key policy questions, namely, the identification and selection of subgroups, while distinguishing 2 sources of potential value associated with heterogeneity. These are 1) the value of revealing the factors associated with heterogeneity in costs and outcomes using existing evidence (static value) and 2) the value of acquiring further subgroup-related evidence to resolve the uncertainty given the current understanding of heterogeneity (dynamic value). Consideration of these 2 sources of value can guide subgroup-specific treatment decisions and inform whether further research should be conducted to resolve uncertainty to explain variability in costs and outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to a cost-effectiveness analysis for the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome. This study presents the expected net benefits under current and perfect information when subgroups are defined based on the use and combination of 6 binary covariates. The results of the case study confirm the theoretical expectations. As more subgroups are considered, the marginal net benefit gains obtained under the current information show diminishing marginal returns, and the expected value of perfect information shows a decreasing trend. We present a suggested algorithm that synthesizes the results to guide policy. PMID:24944196

The value of heterogeneity for cost-effectiveness subgroup analysis: conceptual framework and application.

PubMed

Espinoza, Manuel A; Manca, Andrea; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark J

2014-11-01

This article develops a general framework to guide the use of subgroup cost-effectiveness analysis for decision making in a collectively funded health system. In doing so, it addresses 2 key policy questions, namely, the identification and selection of subgroups, while distinguishing 2 sources of potential value associated with heterogeneity. These are 1) the value of revealing the factors associated with heterogeneity in costs and outcomes using existing evidence (static value) and 2) the value of acquiring further subgroup-related evidence to resolve the uncertainty given the current understanding of heterogeneity (dynamic value). Consideration of these 2 sources of value can guide subgroup-specific treatment decisions and inform whether further research should be conducted to resolve uncertainty to explain variability in costs and outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to a cost-effectiveness analysis for the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome. This study presents the expected net benefits under current and perfect information when subgroups are defined based on the use and combination of 6 binary covariates. The results of the case study confirm the theoretical expectations. As more subgroups are considered, the marginal net benefit gains obtained under the current information show diminishing marginal returns, and the expected value of perfect information shows a decreasing trend. We present a suggested algorithm that synthesizes the results to guide policy. © The Author(s) 2014.

Probing reward function in posttraumatic stress disorder: expectancy and satisfaction with monetary gains and losses.

PubMed

Hopper, James W; Pitman, Roger K; Su, Zhaohui; Heyman, Gene M; Lasko, Natasha B; Macklin, Michael L; Orr, Scott P; Lukas, Scott E; Elman, Igor

2008-08-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may be associated with dysfunctional reward processing. The present study assessed for such dysfunction in both the expectancy and outcome phases of reward processing. Male Vietnam veterans with (n=15) and without (n=11) combat-related PTSD were administered a wheel of fortune-type gambling task. Self-reported ratings of expectancy and satisfaction were collected respectively before and after each experience of monetary gain or loss. PTSD participants reported both lower expectancy of reward and lower satisfaction with reward when it was received. The latter result was manifest in a failure of PTSD participants to show the greater satisfaction that normally accompanies rewards received under conditions of low expectancy. These results suggest reward function impairment in PTSD related to expectancy, satisfaction, and the expectancy-satisfaction relationship.

Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment

PubMed Central

Bor, Jacob; Herbst, Abraham J; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

2013-01-01

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years – an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors. PMID:23430655

Does directly administered antiretroviral therapy represent good value for money in sub-Saharan Africa? A cost-utility and value of information analysis.

PubMed

Uthman, Rashidah T; Sutton, Andrew J; Jackson, Louise J; Uthman, Olalekan A

2018-01-01

Successful antiretroviral therapy (ART) relies on the optimal level of ART adherence to achieve reliable viral suppression, avert HIV drug resistance, and prevent avoidable deaths. It has been shown that there are various groups of people living with HIV at high-risk of non-adherence to ART in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to examine the cost effectiveness and value-of-information of directly administered antiretroviral therapy (DAART) versus self-administered ART among people living with HIV, at high risk of non-adherence to ART in sub-Saharan Africa. A Markov model was developed that describes the transition between HIV stages based on the CD4 count, along with direct costs, quality of life and the mortality rate associated with DAART in comparison with self-administered ART. Data used in the model were derived from the published literature. A health system perspective was employed using a life-time time horizon. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the impact of parameter uncertainty. Value of information analysis was also conducted. The expected cost of self-administered ART and DAART were $5,200 and $15,500 and the expected QALYs gained were 8.52 and 9.75 respectively, giving an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of $8,400 per QALY gained. The analysis demonstrated that the annual cost DAART needs to be priced below $200 per patient to be cost-effective. The probability that DAART was cost-effective was 1% for a willingness to pay threshold of $5,096 for sub-Saharan Africa. The value of information associated with the cost of DAART and its effectiveness was substantial. From the perspective of the health care payer in sub-Saharan Africa, DAART cannot be regarded as cost-effective based on current information. The value of information analysis showed that further research will be worthwhile and potentially cost-effective in resolving the uncertainty about whether or not to adopt DAART.

How many years of life did the fall of the Berlin Wall add? A projection of East German life expectancy.

PubMed

Vogt, Tobias C

2013-01-01

In the two decades since reunification, East Germans have experienced a large increase in life expectancy and a convergence with the West German mortality level. This gain in life expectancy appears even more impressive if we assume a different scenario in which the Berlin Wall did not fall, and the old East Germany still existed. This analysis takes into account that East German mortality would not have remained static without reunification. Thus, it shows how many years of life expectancy were actually added by the fall of the Berlin Wall. The analysis shows the improvements for single age groups by projecting life expectancy based on mortality levels during the 1970s and 1980s using the Lee-Carter method. I use national-level data for both sexes for East Germany before reunification. I find that, without reunification, current life expectancy at birth among East Germans would be 4.0 years lower for females and 5.7 years lower for males. I also show that older East Germans were the main demographic beneficiaries of reunification. Female and male mortality improvements in the age groups above 60 contributed up to 80% to the actual gains in life expectancy. Had the Berlin Wall not fallen, East German mortality would not have remained static but improved at a far slower rate. Thus, this counterfactual approach shows for the first time how many years of life were actually gained by reunification and how much of these gains were attributable to mortality improvements among the elderly. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Leisure Time Physical Activity of Moderate to Vigorous Intensity and Mortality: A Large Pooled Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Moore, Steven C.; Patel, Alpa V.; Matthews, Charles E.; Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Park, Yikyung; Katki, Hormuzd A.; Linet, Martha S.; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Visvanathan, Kala; Helzlsouer, Kathy J.; Thun, Michael; Gapstur, Susan M.; Hartge, Patricia; Lee, I-Min

2012-01-01

Background Leisure time physical activity reduces the risk of premature mortality, but the years of life expectancy gained at different levels remains unclear. Our objective was to determine the years of life gained after age 40 associated with various levels of physical activity, both overall and according to body mass index (BMI) groups, in a large pooled analysis. Methods and Findings We examined the association of leisure time physical activity with mortality during follow-up in pooled data from six prospective cohort studies in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium, comprising 654,827 individuals, 21–90 y of age. Physical activity was categorized by metabolic equivalent hours per week (MET-h/wk). Life expectancies and years of life gained/lost were calculated using direct adjusted survival curves (for participants 40+ years of age), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) derived by bootstrap. The study includes a median 10 y of follow-up and 82,465 deaths. A physical activity level of 0.1–3.74 MET-h/wk, equivalent to brisk walking for up to 75 min/wk, was associated with a gain of 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6–2.0) y in life expectancy relative to no leisure time activity (0 MET-h/wk). Higher levels of physical activity were associated with greater gains in life expectancy, with a gain of 4.5 (95% CI: 4.3–4.7) y at the highest level (22.5+ MET-h/wk, equivalent to brisk walking for 450+ min/wk). Substantial gains were also observed in each BMI group. In joint analyses, being active (7.5+ MET-h/wk) and normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9) was associated with a gain of 7.2 (95% CI: 6.5–7.9) y of life compared to being inactive (0 MET-h/wk) and obese (BMI 35.0+). A limitation was that physical activity and BMI were ascertained by self report. Conclusions More leisure time physical activity was associated with longer life expectancy across a range of activity levels and BMI groups. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23139642

The business end of health information technology. Can a fully integrated electronic health record increase provider productivity in a large community practice?

PubMed

De Leon, Samantha; Connelly-Flores, Alison; Mostashari, Farzad; Shih, Sarah C

2010-01-01

Electronic health records (EHRs) are expected to transform and improve the way medicine is practiced. However, providers perceive many barriers toward implementing new health information technology. Specifically, they are most concerned about the potentially negative impact on their practice finances and productivity. This study compares the productivity of 75 providers at a large urban primary care practice from January 2005 to February 2009, before and after implementing an EHR system, using longitudinal mixed model analyses. While decreases in productivity were observed at the time the EHR system was implemented, most providers quickly recovered, showing increases in productivity per month shortly after EHR implementation. Overall, providers had significant productivity increases of 1.7% per month per provider from pre- to post-EHR adoption. The majority of the productivity gains occurred after the practice instituted a pay-for-performance program, enabled by the data capture of the EHRs. Coupled with pay-for-performance, EHRs can spur rapid gains in provider productivity.

Rigorous control conditions diminish treatment effects in weight loss randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Dawson, John A.; Kaiser, Kathryn A.; Affuso, Olivia; Cutter, Gary R.; Allison, David B.

2015-01-01

Background It has not been established whether control conditions with large weight losses (WLs) diminish expected treatment effects in WL or prevention of weight gain (PWG) randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Subjects/Methods We performed a meta-analysis of 239 WL/PWG RCTs that include a control group and at least one treatment group. A maximum likelihood meta-analysis framework is used in order to model and understand the relationship between treatment effects and control group outcomes. Results Under the informed model, an increase in control group WL of one kilogram corresponds with an expected shrinkage of the treatment effect by 0.309 kg [95% CI (−0.480, −0.138), p = 0.00081]; this result is robust against violations of the model assumptions. Conclusions We find that control conditions with large weight losses diminish expected treatment effects. Our investigation may be helpful to clinicians as they design future WL/PWG studies. PMID:26449419

How Do Perceptions About Cessation Outcomes Moderate the Effectiveness of a Gain-Framed Smoking Cessation Telephone Counseling Intervention?

PubMed Central

Latimer-Cheung, Amy E.; Fucito, Lisa M.; Carlin-Menter, Shannon; Rodriguez, Jocelyn; Raymond, Lindsey; Salovey, Peter; Makuch, Robert; Cummings, K. Michael; Toll, Benjamin A.

2013-01-01

The distinction between prevention and detection behaviors provides a useful guideline for appropriately framing health messages in terms of gains or losses. However, this guideline assumes that everyone perceives the outcomes associated with a behavior in a consistent manner, as prevention or detection. Individuals’ perceptions of a behavior vary, and so the effects of framed messages may be optimized by considering individuals’ perceptions rather than the prevention or detection function of the behavior. The authors tested this message-framing paradigm in a secondary analysis of data from a trial evaluating gain-framed smoking cessation counseling delivered through a state quitline (Toll et al., 2010). Smokers (N = 2,032) who called a state quitline received either gain-framed or standard care messages. Smokers’ beliefs about the positive consequences of stopping smoking (outcome expectancies) were evaluated at baseline. Smoking status and self-efficacy were assessed at 3 months. Outcome expectancies moderated the framing effects among men but not among women. Men in the gain-framed counseling condition who had positive outcome expectancies were more likely to quit and had more confidence in their ability to quit or to remain abstinent than men who were uncertain of the positive outcome of smoking cessation. Among men, self-efficacy mediated the moderated framing effects of the intervention on quit status. These findings suggest that it may be useful to consider sex and individual differences in outcome expectancies when delivering gain-framed smoking cessation messages in the context of a state quitline. PMID:22765277

The Impact of Power on Information Processing Depends on Cultural Orientation

PubMed Central

Torelli, Carlos J.; Shavitt, Sharon

2011-01-01

Two studies show that different culturally based concepts of interpersonal power have distinct implications for information processing. People with a vertical individualist (VI) cultural orientation view power in personalized terms (power is for gaining status over and recognition by others), whereas people with a horizontal collectivist (HC) cultural orientation view power in socialized terms (power is for benefitting and helping others). The distinct goals associated with these power concepts are served by different mindsets, such as stereotyping others versus learning the individuating needs of others. Therefore, for high-VI individuals, making personalized power salient increases stereotyping in processing product information. That is, they recognize better information that is congruent with their prior product expectations, relative to their recognition of incongruent information. In contrast, for high-HC people, making socialized power salient increases individuating processes, characterized by better memory for incongruent information. PMID:21779130

Likely gains in life expectancy of patients with coronary artery disease treated with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, as predicted by a decision analysis model.

PubMed

Kellett, J

1997-07-01

To estimate the likely gains in life expectancy of patients with coronary artery disease treated with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors based on published reports and the results of the 4S and the West of Scotland Study. Decision analysis. Four likely scenarios of the effect of treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors on the life expectancy of medically and surgically managed coronary artery disease were modelled. Regardless of the scenario, treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors was estimated to provide a gain in life expectancy for medically managed patients of all ages with coronary artery disease, ranging from 4.6 to 10.1 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for a 40 year old with three vessel disease (depending on the scenario assumed), to 0.2 QALYs for a 80 year old with two vessel disease. These gains were always greater than those predicted after bypass alone. If the use of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors produces the same reduction in cardiac mortality after bypass as it does in medically managed patients it will increase the benefits of operation except for patients with two vessel disease over 70 years of age. Conversely, if HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors do not influence the course of coronary artery disease after bypass, the benefits of operation over medical treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors are either reduced or lost completely, ranging from a loss of -5.6 QALYs for a 40 year old with two vessel disease to a gain of 1.5 QALYs for 55 to 60 year old patients with left main stem disease. Although their effect on the progression of coronary artery disease after bypass must be defined, it is probable that HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors will produce considerable gains in life expectancy for patients with coronary artery disease.

End-user support for primary care electronic medical records: a qualitative case study of users’ needs, expectations and realities

PubMed Central

Shachak, Aviv; Montgomery, Catherine; Dow, Rustam; Barnsley, Jan; Tu, Karen; Jadad, Alejandro R.; Lemieux-Charles, Louise

2015-01-01

Support is considered an important factor for realizing the benefits of health information technology (HIT) but there is a dearth of research on the topic of support, especially in primary care. We conducted a qualitative multiple case study of 4 family health teams (FHTs) and one family health organization (FHO) in Ontario, Canada in an attempt to gain insight into users’ expectations and needs, and the realities of end-user support for primary care electronic medical records (EMRs). Data were collected by semi-structured interviews, documents review, and observation of training sessions. The analysis highlights the important role of on-site information technology (IT) staff and super-users in liaising with various stakeholders to solve technical problems and providing hardware and functional (‘how to’) support; the local development of data support practices to ensure consistent documentation; and the gaps that exist in users’ and support personnel’s understanding of each other’s work processes. PMID:26225209

Changes of heart: the switch-value method for assessing value uncertainty.

PubMed

John, Leslie K; Fischhoff, Baruch

2010-01-01

Medical choices often evoke great value uncertainty, as patients face difficult, unfamiliar tradeoffs. Those seeking to aid such choices must be able to assess patients' ability to reduce that uncertainty, to reach stable, informed choices. The authors demonstrate a new method for evaluating how well people have articulated their preferences for difficult health decisions. The method uses 2 evaluative criteria. One is internal consistency, across formally equivalent ways of posing a choice. The 2nd is compliance with principles of prospect theory, indicating sufficient task mastery to respond in predictable ways. Subjects considered a hypothetical choice between noncurative surgery and palliative care, posed by a brain tumor. The choice options were characterized on 6 outcomes (e.g., pain, life expectancy, treatment risk), using a drug facts box display. After making an initial choice, subjects indicated their willingness to switch, given plausible changes in the outcomes. These changes involved either gains (improvements) in the unchosen option or losses (worsening) in the chosen one. A 2 x 2 mixed design manipulated focal change (gains v. losses) within subjects and change order between subjects. In this demonstration, subjects' preferences were generally consistent 1) with one another: with similar percentages willing to switch for gains and losses, and 2) with prospect theory, requiring larger gains than losses, to make those switches. Informed consent requires understanding decisions well enough to articulate coherent references. The authors' method allows assessing individuals' success in doing so.

Years of life gained due to leisure-time physical activity in the U.S.

PubMed

Janssen, Ian; Carson, Valerie; Lee, I-Min; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Blair, Steven N

2013-01-01

Physical inactivity is an important modifiable risk factor for noncommunicable disease. The degree to which physical activity affects the life expectancy of Americans is unknown. This study estimated the potential years of life gained due to leisure-time physical activity in the U.S. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-2010); National Health Interview Study mortality linkage (1990-2006); and U.S. Life Tables (2006) were used to estimate and compare life expectancy at each age of adult life for inactive (no moderate to vigorous physical activity); somewhat-active (some moderate to vigorous activity but <500 MET minutes/week); and active (≥ 500 MET minutes/week of moderate to vigorous activity) adults. Analyses were conducted in 2012. Somewhat-active and active non-Hispanic white men had a life expectancy at age 20 years that was ~2.4 years longer than that for the inactive men; this life expectancy advantage was 1.2 years at age 80 years. Similar observations were made in non-Hispanic white women, with a higher life expectancy within the active category of 3.0 years at age 20 years and 1.6 years at age 80 years. In non-Hispanic black women, as many as 5.5 potential years of life were gained due to physical activity. Significant increases in longevity were also observed within somewhat-active and active non-Hispanic black men; however, among Hispanics the years-of-life-gained estimates were not significantly different from 0 years gained. Leisure-time physical activity is associated with increases in longevity. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Years of Life Gained Due to Leisure-Time Physical Activity in the United States

PubMed Central

Janssen, Ian; Carson, Valerie; Lee, I-Min; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Blair, Steven N.

2013-01-01

Background Physical inactivity is an important modifiable risk factor for non-communicable disease. The degree to which physical activity affects the life expectancy of Americans is unknown. This study estimated the potential years of life gained due to leisure-time physical activity across the adult lifespan in the United States. Methods Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007–2010), National Health Interview Study mortality linkage (1990–2006), and US Life Tables (2006) were used to estimate and compare life expectancy at each age of adult life for inactive (no moderate-to-vigorous physical activity), somewhat active (some moderate-to-vigorous activity but <500 metabolic equivalent min/week) and active (≥500 metabolic equivalent min/week of moderate-to-vigorous activity) adults. Analyses were conducted in 2012. Results Somewhat active and active non-Hispanic white men had a life expectancy at age 20 that was around 2.4 years longer than the inactive men; this life expectancy advantage was 1.2 years at age 80. Similar observations were made in non-Hispanic white women, with a higher life expectancy within the active category of 3.0 years at age 20 and 1.6 years at age 80. In non-Hispanic black women, as many as 5.5 potential years of life were gained due to physical activity. Significant increases in longevity were also observed within somewhat active and active non-Hispanic black men; however, among Hispanics the years of life gained estimates were more variable and not significantly different from 0 years gained. Conclusions Leisure-time physical activity is associated with increases in longevity in the United States. PMID:23253646

Do they see it coming? Using expectancy violation to gauge the success of pedagogical reforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaffney, Jon D. H.; Gaffney, Amy L. Housley; Beichner, Robert J.

2010-06-01

We present a measure, which we have named the Pedagogical Expectancy Violation Assessment (PEVA), for instructors to gauge one aspect of the success of their implementation of pedagogical reform by assessing the expectations and experiences of the students in the classroom. We implemented the PEVA in four physics classes at three institutions that used the Student Centered Active Learning Environment for Undergraduate Programs (SCALE-UP) pedagogy in order to gain an understanding of students’ initial expectations, how those expectations are shifted during early classes, and what students report experiencing at the end of the semester. The results indicate appropriate shifts in student expectations during orientation, but some gaps between student expectations and experiences persisted. Students rated the communication aspects of SCALE-UP as desirable and indicated an overall positive affect toward the pedagogy, indicating that violations of their initial expectations were largely positive. By studying the patterns of the shifts in students’ expectations and gaps between those expectations and their experiences, we gain insight for improving both the orientation of the students and the implementation of the course.

Older kidney transplantation candidates' expectations of improvement in life and health following kidney transplantation: semistructured interviews with enlisted dialysis patients aged 65 years and older.

PubMed

Lønning, Kjersti; Midtvedt, Karsten; Heldal, Kristian; Andersen, Marit Helen

2018-06-22

The aim was to study the expectations of improvement in life and health following kidney transplantation (KTx) in a population of wait-listed patients ≥65 years with end-stage kidney disease. Qualitative research with individual in-depth interviews. Patients on dialysis enlisted for a KTx from a deceased donor were included from an ongoing study of older patients' perspectives on KTx. Qualitative face-to-face interviews were conducted in a safe and familiar setting, and were analysed thematically using the theoretical framework of lifespan. Fifteen patients (median age 70 years, range 65-82) from all parts of Norway were interviewed. Informants were included consecutively until no new information was gained. Two main themes were evident: receiving a kidney is getting life back and grasp the chance. In addition, the themes 'hard to loose capacity and strength', 'reduced freedom' and 'life on hold' described the actual situation and thereby illuminated the informants' expectations. The informants tried to balance positive expectations and realism towards KTx, and they were hoping to become free from dialysis and to live a normal life. This study shows that older KTx candidates comprise a heterogeneous group of patients who take individual approaches that allow them to maintain autonomy and control while waiting for a transplant. This study provides new knowledge about the older KTx candidates relevant for clinicians, patients and researchers. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Time and expected value of sample information wait for no patient.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

2008-01-01

The expected value of sample information (EVSI) from prospective trials has previously been modeled as the product of EVSI per patient, and the number of patients across the relevant time horizon less those "used up" in trials. However, this implicitly assumes the eligible patient population to which information from a trial can be applied across a time horizon are independent of time for trial accrual, follow-up and analysis. This article demonstrates that in calculating the EVSI of a trial, the number of patients who benefit from trial information should be reduced by those treated outside as well as within the trial over the time until trial evidence is updated, including time for accrual, follow-up and analysis. Accounting for time is shown to reduce the eligible patient population: 1) independent of the size of trial in allowing for time of follow-up and analysis, and 2) dependent on the size of trial for time of accrual, where the patient accrual rate is less than incidence. Consequently, the EVSI and expected net gain (ENG) at any given trial size are shown to be lower when accounting for time, with lower ENG reinforced in the case of trials undertaken while delaying decisions by additional opportunity costs of time. Appropriately accounting for time reduces the EVSI of trial design and increase opportunity costs of trials undertaken with delay, leading to lower likelihood of trialing being optimal and smaller trial designs where optimal.

What We Observe Is Biased by What Other People Tell Us: Beliefs about the Reliability of Gaze Behavior Modulate Attentional Orienting to Gaze Cues

PubMed Central

Wiese, Eva; Wykowska, Agnieszka; Müller, Hermann J.

2014-01-01

For effective social interactions with other people, information about the physical environment must be integrated with information about the interaction partner. In order to achieve this, processing of social information is guided by two components: a bottom-up mechanism reflexively triggered by stimulus-related information in the social scene and a top-down mechanism activated by task-related context information. In the present study, we investigated whether these components interact during attentional orienting to gaze direction. In particular, we examined whether the spatial specificity of gaze cueing is modulated by expectations about the reliability of gaze behavior. Expectations were either induced by instruction or could be derived from experience with displayed gaze behavior. Spatially specific cueing effects were observed with highly predictive gaze cues, but also when participants merely believed that actually non-predictive cues were highly predictive. Conversely, cueing effects for the whole gazed-at hemifield were observed with non-predictive gaze cues, and spatially specific cueing effects were attenuated when actually predictive gaze cues were believed to be non-predictive. This pattern indicates that (i) information about cue predictivity gained from sampling gaze behavior across social episodes can be incorporated in the attentional orienting to social cues, and that (ii) beliefs about gaze behavior modulate attentional orienting to gaze direction even when they contradict information available from social episodes. PMID:24722348

Altered reward expectancy in individuals with recent methamphetamine dependence.

PubMed

Bischoff-Grethe, Amanda; Connolly, Colm G; Jordan, Stephan J; Brown, Gregory G; Paulus, Martin P; Tapert, Susan F; Heaton, Robert K; Woods, Steven P; Grant, Igor

2017-01-01

Chronic methamphetamine use may lead to changes in reward-related function of the ventral striatum and caudate nucleus. Whether methamphetamine-dependent individuals show heightened reactivity to positively valenced stimuli (i.e. positive reinforcement mechanisms), or an exaggerated response to negatively valenced stimuli (i.e. driven by negative reinforcement mechanisms) remains unclear. This study investigated neural functioning of expectancy and receipt for gains and losses in adults with (METH+) and without (METH-) histories of methamphetamine dependence. Participants (17 METH+; 23 METH-) performed a probabilistic feedback expectancy task during blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were given visual cues probabilistically associated with monetary gain, loss, or neutral outcomes. General linear models examined the BOLD response to: (1) anticipation of gains and losses, and (2) gain and loss monetary outcomes. METH+ had less BOLD response to loss anticipation than METH- in the ventral striatum and posterior caudate. METH+ also showed more BOLD response to loss outcomes than to gain outcomes in the anterior and posterior caudate, whereas METH- did not show differential responses to the valence of outcomes. METH+ individuals showed attenuated neural response to anticipated gains and losses, but their response to loss outcomes was greater than to gain outcomes. A decreased response to loss anticipation, along with a greater response to loss outcomes, suggests an altered ability to evaluate future risks and benefits based upon prior experience, which may underlie suboptimal decision-making in METH+ individuals that increases the likelihood of risky behavior.

Altered reward expectancy in individuals with recent methamphetamine dependence

PubMed Central

Bischoff-Grethe, Amanda; Connolly, Colm G; Jordan, Stephan J; Brown, Gregory G; Paulus, Martin P; Tapert, Susan F; Heaton, Robert K; Woods, Steven P; Grant, Igor

2016-01-01

Background Chronic methamphetamine use may lead to changes in reward-related function of the ventral striatum and caudate nucleus. Whether methamphetamine dependent individuals show heightened reactivity to positively valenced stimuli (i.e., positive reinforcement mechanisms), or an exaggerated response to negatively valenced stimuli (i.e., driven by negative reinforcement mechanisms) remains unclear. This study investigated neural functioning of expectancy and receipt for gains and losses in adults with (METH+) and without (METH−) histories of methamphetamine dependence. Methods Participants (17 METH+; 23 METH−) performed a probabilistic feedback expectancy task during blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were given visual cues probabilistically associated with monetary gain, loss, or neutral outcomes. General linear models examined the BOLD response to: (1) anticipation of gains and losses, and (2) gain and loss monetary outcomes. Results METH+ had less BOLD response to loss anticipation than METH− in the ventral striatum and posterior caudate. METH+ also showed more BOLD response to loss outcomes than to gain outcomes in the anterior and posterior caudate, whereas METH− did not show differential responses to the valence of outcomes. Discussion METH+ individuals showed attenuated neural response to anticipated gains and losses, but their response to loss outcomes was greater than to gain outcomes. A decreased response to loss anticipation, along with a greater response to loss outcomes, suggests an altered ability to evaluate future risks and benefits based upon prior experience, which may underlie suboptimal decision-making in METH+ individuals that increases the likelihood of risky behavior. PMID:27649775

Who Are You More Likely to Help? The Effects of Expected Outcomes and Regulatory Focus on Prosocial Performance.

PubMed

Xiao, Fengqiu; Zheng, Zhiwei; Zhang, Heyi; Xin, Ziqiang; Chen, Yinghe; Li, Yiwei

2016-01-01

Prosocial behavior refers to a broad category of actions that benefit other people or the society. Compared with other factors that affect prosocial performance, prosocial outcomes, consisting of prosocial gains and prosocial non-losses have received less attention up to now. In the current research, we explored the influences of different types of expected outcomes and regulatory focus on prosocial performance. Studies 1a and 1b examined the differences in prosocial performance elicited by prosocial gain (e.g., enhancing others' access to clean water) and prosocial non-loss outcomes (e.g., protecting others from suffering dirty water). We found that the expected prosocial non-loss outcomes induced greater prosocial performance compared with the expected prosocial gain outcomes. Studies 2a and 2b examined the effects of dispositional and situational regulatory focus on prosocial loss aversion. We found that differences in prosocial performance between two expected prosocial outcomes were reduced when promotion focus was primed; whereas a primed prevention focus did not significantly increase this difference. Additionally, participants displayed a greater prosocial loss aversion in the prevention focus condition than in the promotion focus condition. The reason for the non-significant interaction between regulatory focus and expected prosocial outcome was discussed.

Who Are You More Likely to Help? The Effects of Expected Outcomes and Regulatory Focus on Prosocial Performance

PubMed Central

Xiao, Fengqiu; Zheng, Zhiwei; Zhang, Heyi; Xin, Ziqiang; Chen, Yinghe; Li, Yiwei

2016-01-01

Prosocial behavior refers to a broad category of actions that benefit other people or the society. Compared with other factors that affect prosocial performance, prosocial outcomes, consisting of prosocial gains and prosocial non-losses have received less attention up to now. In the current research, we explored the influences of different types of expected outcomes and regulatory focus on prosocial performance. Studies 1a and 1b examined the differences in prosocial performance elicited by prosocial gain (e.g., enhancing others’ access to clean water) and prosocial non-loss outcomes (e.g., protecting others from suffering dirty water). We found that the expected prosocial non-loss outcomes induced greater prosocial performance compared with the expected prosocial gain outcomes. Studies 2a and 2b examined the effects of dispositional and situational regulatory focus on prosocial loss aversion. We found that differences in prosocial performance between two expected prosocial outcomes were reduced when promotion focus was primed; whereas a primed prevention focus did not significantly increase this difference. Additionally, participants displayed a greater prosocial loss aversion in the prevention focus condition than in the promotion focus condition. The reason for the non-significant interaction between regulatory focus and expected prosocial outcome was discussed. PMID:27824909

Health-adjusted life expectancy in Canada.

PubMed

Bushnik, Tracey; Tjepkema, Michael; Martel, Laurent

2018-04-18

Over the past century, life expectancy at birth in Canada has risen substantially. However, these gains in the quantity of life say little about gains in the quality of life. Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), an indicator of quality of life, was estimated for the household and institutional populations combined every four years from 1994/1995 to 2015. Health status was measured by the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 instrument in two national population health surveys, and was used to adjust life expectancy. The percentage of the population living in health-related institutions was estimated based on the Census of Population. Attribute-deleted HALE was calculated to determine how various aspects of health status contributed to the differences between life expectancy and HALE. HALE has increased in Canada. Greater gains among males have narrowed the gap between males and females. The ratio of HALE to life expectancy changed little for males, and a marginal improvement was observed for females aged 65 or older. Mobility problems and pain, the latter mainly among females, accounted for an increased share of the burden of ill health over time. Exclusion of the institutional population significantly increased the estimates of HALE and yielded higher ratios of HALE to life expectancy. Although people are living longer, the share of years spent in good functional health has remained fairly constant. Data for both the household and institutional populations are necessary for a complete picture of health expectancy in Canada.

Choice of saccade endpoint under risk

PubMed Central

Ackermann, John F.; Landy, Michael S.

2013-01-01

Eye movements function to bring detailed information onto the high-resolution region of the retina. Previous research has shown that human observers select fixation points that maximize information acquisition and minimize target location uncertainty. In this study, we ask whether human observers choose the saccade endpoint that maximizes gain when there are explicit rewards associated with correctly detecting the target. Observers performed an 8-alternative forced-choice detection task for a contrast-defined target in noise. After a single saccade, observers indicated the target location. Each potential target location had an associated reward that was known to the observer. In some conditions, the reward at one location was higher than at the other locations. We compared human saccade endpoints to those of an ideal observer that maximizes expected gain given the respective human observer's visibility map, i.e., d′ for target detection as a function of retinal location. Varying the location of the highest reward had a significant effect on human observers' distribution of saccade endpoints. Both human and ideal observers show a high density of saccades made toward the highest rewarded and actual target locations. But humans' overall spatial distributions of saccade endpoints differed significantly from the ideal observer as they made a greater number of saccade to locations far from the highest rewarded and actual target locations. Suboptimal choice of saccade endpoint, possibly in combination with suboptimal integration of information across saccades, had a significant effect on human observers' ability to correctly detect the target and maximize gain. PMID:24023277

Are Global and Regional Improvements in Life Expectancy and in Child, Adult and Senior Survival Slowing?

PubMed Central

Hum, Ryan J.; Verguet, Stéphane; Cheng, Yu-Ling; McGahan, Anita M.; Jha, Prabhat

2015-01-01

Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year2; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year2; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year2. Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year2. Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health–primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest. PMID:25992949

Medical Data GRIDs as approach towards secure cross enterprise document sharing (based on IHE XDS).

PubMed

Wozak, Florian; Ammenwerth, Elske; Breu, Micheal; Penz, Robert; Schabetsberger, Thomas; Vogl, Raimund; Wurz, Manfred

2006-01-01

Quality and efficiency of health care services is expected to be improved by the electronic processing and trans-institutional availability of medical data. A prototype architecture based on the IHE-XDS profile is currently being developed. Due to legal and organizational requirements specific adaptations to the IHE-XDS profile have been made. In this work the services of the health@net reference architecture are described in details, which have been developed with focus on compliance to both, the IHE-XDS profile and the legal situation in Austria. We expect to gain knowledge about the development of a shared electronic health record using Medical Data Grids as an Open Source reference implementation and how proprietary Hospital Information systems can be integrated in this environment.

Picking battles wisely: plant behaviour under competition.

PubMed

Novoplansky, Ariel

2009-06-01

Plants are limited in their ability to choose their neighbours, but they are able to orchestrate a wide spectrum of rational competitive behaviours that increase their prospects to prevail under various ecological settings. Through the perception of neighbours, plants are able to anticipate probable competitive interactions and modify their competitive behaviours to maximize their long-term gains. Specifically, plants can minimize competitive encounters by avoiding their neighbours; maximize their competitive effects by aggressively confronting their neighbours; or tolerate the competitive effects of their neighbours. However, the adaptive values of these non-mutually exclusive options are expected to depend strongly on the plants' evolutionary background and to change dynamically according to their past development, and relative sizes and vigour. Additionally, the magnitude of competitive responsiveness is expected to be positively correlated with the reliability of the environmental information regarding the expected competitive interactions and the expected time left for further plastic modifications. Concurrent competition over external and internal resources and morphogenetic signals may enable some plants to increase their efficiency and external competitive performance by discriminately allocating limited resources to their more promising organs at the expense of failing or less successful organs.

Data-driven approach for assessing utility of medical tests using electronic medical records.

PubMed

Skrøvseth, Stein Olav; Augestad, Knut Magne; Ebadollahi, Shahram

2015-02-01

To precisely define the utility of tests in a clinical pathway through data-driven analysis of the electronic medical record (EMR). The information content was defined in terms of the entropy of the expected value of the test related to a given outcome. A kernel density classifier was used to estimate the necessary distributions. To validate the method, we used data from the EMR of the gastrointestinal department at a university hospital. Blood tests from patients undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal surgery were analyzed with respect to second surgery within 30 days of the index surgery. The information content is clearly reflected in the patient pathway for certain combinations of tests and outcomes. C-reactive protein tests coupled to anastomosis leakage, a severe complication show a clear pattern of information gain through the patient trajectory, where the greatest gain from the test is 3-4 days post index surgery. We have defined the information content in a data-driven and information theoretic way such that the utility of a test can be precisely defined. The results reflect clinical knowledge. In the case we used the tests carry little negative impact. The general approach can be expanded to cases that carry a substantial negative impact, such as in certain radiological techniques. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Positive Gain Spirals at Work: From Job Resources to Work Engagement, Personal Initiative and Work-Unit Innovativeness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hakanen, Jari J.; Perhoniemi, Riku; Toppinen-Tanner, Salla

2008-01-01

The present cross-lagged panel study aimed to investigate the energizing power of job resources and related gain spirals. Drawing on Hobfoll's Conservation of Resources (COR) theory's rarely tested assumptions of cumulative resource gains and gain spirals a reciprocal process was expected: (1) job resources lead to work engagement and work…

Measuring Financial Gains from Genetically Superior Trees

Treesearch

George Dutrow; Clark Row

1976-01-01

Planting genetically superior loblolly pines will probably yield high profits.Forest economists have made computer simulations that predict financial gains expected from a tree improvement program under actual field conditions.

The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play.

PubMed

Kempton, Thomas; Kennedy, Nicholas; Coutts, Aaron J

2016-01-01

This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010-2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition's goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team's own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.

How efficient are New Zealand's District Health Boards at producing life expectancy gains for Māori and Europeans?

PubMed

Sandiford, Peter; Consuelo, David Juan José Vivas; Rouse, Paul

2017-04-01

Use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the efficiency of New Zealand's District Health Boards (DHBs) at achieving gains in Māori and European life expectancy (LE). Using life tables for 2006 and 2013, a two-output DEA model established the production possibility frontier for Māori and European LE gain. Confidence limits were generated from a 10,000 replicate Monte Carlo simulation. Results support the use of LE change as an indicator of DHB efficiency. DHB mean income and education were related to initial LE but not to its rate of change. LE gains were unrelated to either the initial level of life expectancy or to the proportion of Māori in the population. DHB efficiency ranged from 79% to 100%. Efficiency was significantly correlated with DHB financial performance. Changes in LE did not depend on the social characteristics of the DHB. The statistically significant association between efficiency and financial performance supports its use as an indicator of managerial effectiveness. Implications for public health: Efficient health systems achieve better population health outcomes. DEA can be used to measure the relative efficiency of sub-national health authorities at achieving health gain and equity outcomes. © 2016 The Authors.

Integer cosine transform compression for Galileo at Jupiter: A preliminary look

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ekroot, L.; Dolinar, S.; Cheung, K.-M.

1993-01-01

The Galileo low-gain antenna mission has a severely rate-constrained channel over which we wish to send large amounts of information. Because of this link pressure, compression techniques for image and other data are being selected. The compression technique that will be used for images is the integer cosine transform (ICT). This article investigates the compression performance of Galileo's ICT algorithm as applied to Galileo images taken during the early portion of the mission and to images that simulate those expected from the encounter at Jupiter.

Patient-accessible tool for shared decision making in cardiovascular primary prevention: balancing longevity benefits against medication disutility.

PubMed

Fontana, Marianna; Asaria, Perviz; Moraldo, Michela; Finegold, Judith; Hassanally, Khalil; Manisty, Charlotte H; Francis, Darrel P

2014-06-17

Primary prevention guidelines focus on risk, often assuming negligible aversion to medication, yet most patients discontinue primary prevention statins within 3 years. We quantify real-world distribution of medication disutility and separately calculate the average utilities for a range of risk strata. We randomly sampled 360 members of the general public in London. Medication aversion was quantified as the gain in lifespan required by each individual to offset the inconvenience (disutility) of taking an idealized daily preventative tablet. In parallel, we constructed tables of expected gain in lifespan (utility) from initiating statin therapy for each age group, sex, and cardiovascular risk profile in the population. This allowed comparison of the widths of the distributions of medication disutility and of group-average expectation of longevity gain. Observed medication disutility ranged from 1 day to >10 years of life being required by subjects (median, 6 months; interquartile range, 1-36 months) to make daily preventative therapy worthwhile. Average expected longevity benefit from statins at ages ≥50 years ranges from 3.6 months (low-risk women) to 24.3 months (high-risk men). We can no longer assume that medication disutility is almost zero. Over one-quarter of subjects had disutility exceeding the group-average longevity gain from statins expected even for the highest-risk (ie, highest-gain) group. Future primary prevention studies might explore medication disutility in larger populations. Patients may differ more in disutility than in prospectively definable utility (which provides only group-average estimates). Consultations could be enriched by assessing disutility and exploring its reasons. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Efficient Research Design: Using Value-of-Information Analysis to Estimate the Optimal Mix of Top-down and Bottom-up Costing Approaches in an Economic Evaluation alongside a Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Wilson, Edward C F; Mugford, Miranda; Barton, Garry; Shepstone, Lee

2016-04-01

In designing economic evaluations alongside clinical trials, analysts are frequently faced with alternative methods of collecting the same data, the extremes being top-down ("gross costing") and bottom-up ("micro-costing") approaches. A priori, bottom-up approaches may be considered superior to top-down approaches but are also more expensive to collect and analyze. In this article, we use value-of-information analysis to estimate the efficient mix of observations on each method in a proposed clinical trial. By assigning a prior bivariate distribution to the 2 data collection processes, the predicted posterior (i.e., preposterior) mean and variance of the superior process can be calculated from proposed samples using either process. This is then used to calculate the preposterior mean and variance of incremental net benefit and hence the expected net gain of sampling. We apply this method to a previously collected data set to estimate the value of conducting a further trial and identifying the optimal mix of observations on drug costs at 2 levels: by individual item (process A) and by drug class (process B). We find that substituting a number of observations on process A for process B leads to a modest £ 35,000 increase in expected net gain of sampling. Drivers of the results are the correlation between the 2 processes and their relative cost. This method has potential use following a pilot study to inform efficient data collection approaches for a subsequent full-scale trial. It provides a formal quantitative approach to inform trialists whether it is efficient to collect resource use data on all patients in a trial or on a subset of patients only or to collect limited data on most and detailed data on a subset. © The Author(s) 2016.

Communicating airport noise emission data to the general public.

PubMed

Gasco, Luis; Asensio, Cesar; de Arcas, Guillermo

2017-05-15

Despite the efforts that the aviation industry has undertaken during the last few decades, noise annoyance remains high, partly because of the continuous transport demands of modern societies and partly because of changes in citizen expectations and their growing environmental concerns. Although modern aircraft are considerably quieter than their predecessors, the number of complaints has not decreased as much as expected. Therefore, the aeronautical sector has tried more sociological and/or psychological strategies to gain acceptance through awareness and community engagement. In this regard, noise communication to the public is crucial for managers and policy makers. Noise information is a difficult technical topic for non-experts, which is an issue that must first be addressed to take advantage of the new possibilities that have recently been opened by the internet and information and communication technologies. In this review paper, we have compiled the literature that shows the increasing importance of communicating noise information from aircraft and the variety of indicators used to communicate with the public. We also examined the methods of representing noise data, using visualization strategies, and new tools airports are currently using to address this communication problem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences.

PubMed

Constantinou, Anthony Costa; Yet, Barbaros; Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Marsh, William

2016-01-01

Inspired by real-world examples from the forensic medical sciences domain, we seek to determine whether a decision about an interventional action could be subject to amendments on the basis of some incomplete information within the model, and whether it would be worthwhile for the decision maker to seek further information prior to suggesting a decision. The method is based on the underlying principle of Value of Information to enhance decision analysis in interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks. The method is applied to two real-world Bayesian network models (previously developed for decision support in forensic medical sciences) to examine the average gain in terms of both Value of Information (average relative gain ranging from 11.45% and 59.91%) and decision making (potential amendments in decision making ranging from 0% to 86.8%). We have shown how the method becomes useful for decision makers, not only when decision making is subject to amendments on the basis of some unknown risk factors, but also when it is not. Knowing that a decision outcome is independent of one or more unknown risk factors saves us from the trouble of seeking information about the particular set of risk factors. Further, we have also extended the assessment of this implication to the counterfactual case and demonstrated how answers about interventional actions are expected to change when some unknown factors become known, and how useful this becomes in forensic medical science. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mental models of adherence: parallels in perceptions, values, and expectations in adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and other personal regimens.

PubMed

Rizzo, Jon; Bell, Alexandra

2018-05-09

A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which strongly influences behaviors. This study explored orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and how they related to mental models of adherence to other types of personal regimens. The study followed an interpretive description qualitative design. Data were collected via two semi-structured interviews. Interview One focused on participants prior experiences adhering to personal regimens. Interview Two focused on experiences adhering to their current prescribed home exercise program. Data analysis followed a constant comparative method. Findings revealed similarity in perceptions, values, and expectations that informed individuals mental models of adherence to personal regimens and prescribed home exercise programs. Perceived realized results, expected results, perceived social supports, and value of convenience characterized mental models of adherence. Parallels between mental models of adherence for prescribed home exercise and other personal regimens suggest that patients adherence behavior to prescribed routines may be influenced by adherence experiences in other aspects of their lives. By gaining insight into patients adherence experiences, values, and expectations across life domains, clinicians may tailor supports that enhance home exercise adherence. Implications for Rehabilitation A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which is based on prior experiences and strongly influences behaviors. This study demonstrated similarity in orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and adherence to personal regimens in other aspects of their lives. Physical therapists should inquire about patients non-medical adherence experiences, as strategies patients customarily use to adhere to other activities may inform strategies to promote prescribed home exercise adherence.

The contribution of general practice to medical education: expectations and fulfillment.

PubMed

Lloyd, M H; Rosenthal, J J

1992-11-01

The aim of this study was to discover what students expected to learn during their fourth-year general practice attachment, to compare this with their GP tutors' expectations and to determine the extent to which the students' expectations were fulfilled. Questionnaires were used to gather this information; students completed them on the first and last days of the 4-week attachment and tutors shortly after the attachment. Students and their tutors had the highest expectations of the course in helping to raise awareness of the psychological and social aspects of ill health and develop clinical decision-making and management skills. At the end of the course students thought that they had gained most in these areas. Both students and tutors had lower expectations of the course helping to develop physical examination and practical skills and to improve knowledge in certain clinical areas. These were also rated lowest in terms of fulfillment. This study was carried out at a time when it is being suggested that more undergraduate teaching should take place in general practice and that this could include the teaching of practical skills and clinical subjects traditionally associated with hospital-based teaching. The results suggest that the expectations of students and GP tutors would need to be modified, as well as extra resources provided, if there is to be a shift in teaching towards the community.

Economic evaluation of genomic selection in small ruminants: a sheep meat breeding program.

PubMed

Shumbusho, F; Raoul, J; Astruc, J M; Palhiere, I; Lemarié, S; Fugeray-Scarbel, A; Elsen, J M

2016-06-01

Recent genomic evaluation studies using real data and predicting genetic gain by modeling breeding programs have reported moderate expected benefits from the replacement of classic selection schemes by genomic selection (GS) in small ruminants. The objectives of this study were to compare the cost, monetary genetic gain and economic efficiency of classic selection and GS schemes in the meat sheep industry. Deterministic methods were used to model selection based on multi-trait indices from a sheep meat breeding program. Decisional variables related to male selection candidates and progeny testing were optimized to maximize the annual monetary genetic gain (AMGG), that is, a weighted sum of meat and maternal traits annual genetic gains. For GS, a reference population of 2000 individuals was assumed and genomic information was available for evaluation of male candidates only. In the classic selection scheme, males breeding values were estimated from own and offspring phenotypes. In GS, different scenarios were considered, differing by the information used to select males (genomic only, genomic+own performance, genomic+offspring phenotypes). The results showed that all GS scenarios were associated with higher total variable costs than classic selection (if the cost of genotyping was 123 euros/animal). In terms of AMGG and economic returns, GS scenarios were found to be superior to classic selection only if genomic information was combined with their own meat phenotypes (GS-Pheno) or with their progeny test information. The predicted economic efficiency, defined as returns (proportional to number of expressions of AMGG in the nucleus and commercial flocks) minus total variable costs, showed that the best GS scenario (GS-Pheno) was up to 15% more efficient than classic selection. For all selection scenarios, optimization increased the overall AMGG, returns and economic efficiency. As a conclusion, our study shows that some forms of GS strategies are more advantageous than classic selection, provided that GS is already initiated (i.e. the initial reference population is available). Optimizing decisional variables of the classic selection scheme could be of greater benefit than including genomic information in optimized designs.

Evaluating Pretest Effects in Pre-Post Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Eun Sook; Willson, Victor L.

2010-01-01

This article presents a method to evaluate pretest effects on posttest scores in the absence of an un-pretested control group using published results of pretesting effects due to Willson and Putnam. Confidence intervals around the expected theoretical gain due to pretesting are computed, and observed gains or differential gains are compared with…

Information processing in the vertebrate habenula.

PubMed

Fore, Stephanie; Palumbo, Fabrizio; Pelgrims, Robbrecht; Yaksi, Emre

2018-06-01

The habenula is a brain region that has gained increasing popularity over the recent years due to its role in processing value-related and experience-dependent information with a strong link to depression, addiction, sleep and social interactions. This small diencephalic nucleus is proposed to act as a multimodal hub or a switchboard, where inputs from different brain regions converge. These diverse inputs to the habenula carry information about the sensory world and the animal's internal state, such as reward expectation or mood. However, it is not clear how these diverse habenular inputs interact with each other and how such interactions contribute to the function of habenular circuits in regulating behavioral responses in various tasks and contexts. In this review, we aim to discuss how information processing in habenular circuits, can contribute to specific behavioral programs that are attributed to the habenula. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Homicides In Mexico Reversed Life Expectancy Gains For Men And Slowed Them For Women, 2000–10

PubMed Central

Aburto, José Manuel; Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; García-Guerrero, Victor Manuel; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

2017-01-01

Life expectancy in Mexico increased for more than six decades but then stagnated in the period 2000–10. This decade was characterized by the enactment of a major health care reform—the implementation of the Seguro Popular de Salud (Popular Health Insurance), which was intended to provide coverage to the entire Mexican population—and by an unexpected increase in homicide mortality. We assessed the impact on life expectancy of conditions amenable to medical service—those sensitive to public health policies and changes in behaviors, homicide, and diabetes—by analyzing mortality trends at the state level. We found that life expectancy among males deteriorated from 2005 to 2010, compared to increases from 2000 to 2005. Females in most states experienced small gains in life expectancy between 2000 and 2010. The unprecedented rise in homicides after 2005 led to a reversal in life expectancy increases among males and a slowdown among females in most states in the first decade of the twenty-first century. PMID:26733705

Social Networkers’ Attitudes Toward Direct-to-Consumer Personal Genome Testing

PubMed Central

McGuire, Amy L.; Diaz, Christina M.; Wang, Tao; Hilsenbeck, Susan G.

2009-01-01

Purpose This study explores social networkers’ interest in and attitudes toward personal genome testing (PGT), focusing on expectations related to the clinical integration of PGT results. Methods An online survey of 1,087 social networking users was conducted to assess 1) use and interest in PGT; 2) attitudes toward PGT companies and test results; and 3) expectations for the clinical integration of PGT. Descriptive statistics were calculated to summarize respondents’ characteristics and responses. Results Six percent of respondents have used PGT, 64% would consider using PGT, and 30% would not use PGT. Of those who would consider using PGT, 74% would use it to gain knowledge about disease in their family. Of all respondents, 34% consider the information obtained from PGT to be a medical diagnosis. Of all respondents, 78% of those who would consider PGT would ask their physician for help interpreting test results, and 61% of all respondents believe that physicians have a professional obligation to help individuals interpret PGT results. Conclusion Respondents express interest in using PGT services, primarily for purposes related to their medical care and expect physicians to help interpret PGT results. Physicians should therefore be prepared for patient demands for information and counsel on the basis of PGT results. PMID:19998099

Differentiating innovation priorities among stakeholder in hospital care.

PubMed

Lambooij, Mattijs S; Hummel, Marjan J

2013-08-16

Decisions to adopt a particular innovation may vary between stakeholders because individual stakeholders may disagree on the costs and benefits involved. This may translate to disagreement between stakeholders on priorities in the implementation process, possibly explaining the slow diffusion of innovations in health care. In this study, we explore the differences in stakeholder preferences for innovations, and quantify the difference in stakeholder priorities regarding costs and benefits. The decision support technique called the analytic hierarchy process was used to quantify the preferences of stakeholders for nine information technology (IT) innovations in hospital care. The selection of the innovations was based on a literature review and expert judgments. Decision criteria related to the costs and benefits of the innovations were defined. These criteria were improvement in efficiency, health gains, satisfaction with care process, and investments required. Stakeholders judged the importance of the decision criteria and subsequently prioritized the selected IT innovations according to their expectations of how well the innovations would perform for these decision criteria. The stakeholder groups (patients, nurses, physicians, managers, health care insurers, and policy makers) had different preference structures for the innovations selected. For instance, self-tests were one of the innovations most preferred by health care insurers and managers, owing to their expected positive impacts on efficiency and health gains. However, physicians, nurses and patients strongly doubted the health gains of self-tests, and accordingly ranked self-tests as the least-preferred innovation. The various stakeholder groups had different expectations of the value of the nine IT innovations. The differences are likely due to perceived stakeholder benefits of each innovation, and less to the costs to individual stakeholder groups. This study provides a first exploratory quantitative insight into stakeholder positions concerning innovation in health care, and presents a novel way to study differences in stakeholder preferences. The results may be taken into account by decision makers involved in the implementation of innovations.

Differentiating innovation priorities among stakeholder in hospital care

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Decisions to adopt a particular innovation may vary between stakeholders because individual stakeholders may disagree on the costs and benefits involved. This may translate to disagreement between stakeholders on priorities in the implementation process, possibly explaining the slow diffusion of innovations in health care. In this study, we explore the differences in stakeholder preferences for innovations, and quantify the difference in stakeholder priorities regarding costs and benefits. Methods The decision support technique called the analytic hierarchy process was used to quantify the preferences of stakeholders for nine information technology (IT) innovations in hospital care. The selection of the innovations was based on a literature review and expert judgments. Decision criteria related to the costs and benefits of the innovations were defined. These criteria were improvement in efficiency, health gains, satisfaction with care process, and investments required. Stakeholders judged the importance of the decision criteria and subsequently prioritized the selected IT innovations according to their expectations of how well the innovations would perform for these decision criteria. Results The stakeholder groups (patients, nurses, physicians, managers, health care insurers, and policy makers) had different preference structures for the innovations selected. For instance, self-tests were one of the innovations most preferred by health care insurers and managers, owing to their expected positive impacts on efficiency and health gains. However, physicians, nurses and patients strongly doubted the health gains of self-tests, and accordingly ranked self-tests as the least-preferred innovation. Conclusions The various stakeholder groups had different expectations of the value of the nine IT innovations. The differences are likely due to perceived stakeholder benefits of each innovation, and less to the costs to individual stakeholder groups. This study provides a first exploratory quantitative insight into stakeholder positions concerning innovation in health care, and presents a novel way to study differences in stakeholder preferences. The results may be taken into account by decision makers involved in the implementation of innovations. PMID:23947398

"Watching time tick by…": Decision making for Duchenne muscular dystrophy trials.

PubMed

Peay, Holly L; Scharff, Hadar; Tibben, Aad; Wilfond, Benjamin; Bowie, Janice; Johnson, Joanna; Nagaraju, Kanneboyina; Escolar, Diana; Piacentino, Jonathan; Biesecker, Barbara B

2016-01-01

This interview study explored clinicians' perspectives and parents' decision making about children's participation in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) clinical trials. Data from semi-structured interviews conducted with clinicians and parents in U.S. or Canada were assessed using thematic analysis. Eleven clinicians involved in ten trials and fifteen parents involved in six trials were interviewed. Parents described benefit-risk assessments using information from advocacy, peers, professionals, and sponsors. Strong influence was attributed to the progressive nature of DMD. Most expected direct benefit. Few considered the possibility of trial failure. Most made decisions to participate before the informed consent (IC) process, but none-the-less perceived informed choice with little to lose for potential gain. Clinicians described more influence on parental decisions than attributed by parents. Clinicians felt responsible to facilitate IC while maintaining hope. Both clinicians and parents reported criticisms about the IC process and regulatory barriers. The majority of parents described undertaking benefit-risk assessments that led to informed choices that offered psychological and potential disease benefits. Parents' high expectations influenced their decisions while also reflecting optimism. Clinicians felt challenged in balancing parents' expectations and likely outcomes. Prognosis-related pressures coupled with decision making prior to IC suggest an obligation to ensure educational materials are understandable and accurate, and to consider an expanded notion of IC timeframes. Anticipatory guidance about potential trial failure might facilitate parents' deliberations while aiding clinicians in moderating overly-optimistic motivations. Regulators and industry should appreciate special challenges in progressive disorders, where doing nothing was equated with doing harm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health Gains and Financial Protection Provided by the Ethiopian Mental Health Strategy: an Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Strand, Kirsten Bjerkreim; Fekadu, Abebaw; Chisholm, Dan

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Mental and neurological (MN) health care has long been neglected in low-income settings. This paper estimates health and non-health impacts of fully publicly financed care for selected key interventions in the National Mental Health Strategy in Ethiopia for depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and epilepsy. Methods: A methodology of extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) is applied to MN health care in Ethiopia. The impact of providing a package of selected MN interventions free of charge in Ethiopia is estimated for: epilepsy (75% coverage, phenobarbital), depression (30% coverage, fluoxetine, cognitive therapy and proactive case management), bipolar affective disorder (50% coverage, valproate and psychosocial therapy) and schizophrenia (75% coverage, haloperidol plus psychosocial treatment). Multiple outcomes are estimated and disaggregated across wealth quintiles: (1) healthy-life-years (HALYs) gained; (2) household out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures averted; (3) expected financial risk protection (FRP); and (4) productivity impact. Results: The MN package is expected to cost US$177 million and gain 155,000 HALYs (epilepsy US$37m and 64,500 HALYs; depression US$65m and 61,300 HALYs; bipolar disorder US$44m and 20,300 HALYs; and schizophrenia US$31m and 8,900 HALYs) annually. The health benefits would be concentrated among the poorest groups for all interventions. Universal public finance averts little household OOP expenditures and provides minimal FRP because of the low current utilization of these MN services in Ethiopia. In addition, economic benefits of US$ 51 million annually are expected from depression treatment in Ethiopia as a result of productivity gains, equivalent to 78% of the investment cost. Conclusions: The total MN package in Ethiopia is estimated to cost equivalent to US$1.8 per capita and yields large progressive health benefits. The expected productivity gain is substantially higher than the expected FRP. The ECEA approach seems to fit well with the current policy challenges and captures important equity concerns of scaling up MN programmes. PMID:27935798

NASA/Cousteau ocean bathymetry experiment. Remote bathymetry using high gain LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polcyn, F. C.

1976-01-01

Satellite remote bathymetry was varified to 22 m depths where water clarity was defined by alpha = .058 1/m and bottom reflection, r(b), was 26%. High gain band 4 and band 5 CCT data from LANDSAT 1 was used for a test site in the Bahama Islands and near Florida. Near Florida where alpha = .11 1/m and r(b) = 20%, depths to 10 m were verified. Depth accuracies within 10% rms were achieved. Position accuracies within one LANDSAT pixel were obtained by reference to the Transit navigation satellites. The Calypso and the Beayondan, two ships, were at anchor on each of the seven days during LANDSAT 1 and 2 overpasses: LORAN C position information was used when the ships were underway making depth transects. Results are expected to be useful for updating charts showing shoals hazardous to navigation or in monitoring changes in nearshore topography.

The Use of Facebook in National Election Campaigns: Politics as Usual?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Kim Normann; Medaglia, Rony

The uptake of online media in election campaigning is leading to speculations about the transformation of politics and cyber-democracy. Politicians running for seats in Parliament are increasingly using online media to disseminate information to potential voters and building dynamic, online communities. Drawing on an online survey of the Facebook networks of the two top candidates running for seats in the 2007 Danish Parliament election, this study suggests that the online sphere is primarily populated by users who already know the candidates through the traditional channels of party organizations, and that they do not expect to influence the policy of their candidates. Instead, users view Facebook mainly as an information channel and as a means to gain social prestige.

Do humans make good decisions?

PubMed Central

Summerfield, Christopher; Tsetsos, Konstantinos

2014-01-01

Human performance on perceptual classification tasks approaches that of an ideal observer, but economic decisions are often inconsistent and intransitive, with preferences reversing according to the local context. We discuss the view that suboptimal choices may result from the efficient coding of decision-relevant information, a strategy that allows expected inputs to be processed with higher gain than unexpected inputs. Efficient coding leads to ‘robust’ decisions that depart from optimality but maximise the information transmitted by a limited-capacity system in a rapidly-changing world. We review recent work showing that when perceptual environments are variable or volatile, perceptual decisions exhibit the same suboptimal context-dependence as economic choices, and propose a general computational framework that accounts for findings across the two domains. PMID:25488076

African-American caregivers' expectations of physicians: gaining insights into the key issues of caregivers' concerns.

PubMed

Lampley-Dallas, Vicki T; Mold, James W; Flori, Denise E

2005-07-01

This qualitative study was done to determine what expectations, if any, African-American caregivers' have of physicians; what were the various causes of caregivers' distress, and what were the participants' perceived level of satisfaction or lack of satisfaction with the physician-patient-caregiver relationship The participants in this current study were either providing or had provided assistance in the activities of daily living of elders diagnosed with Alzheimer's or dementia. Focus group methodology was used and participants were recruited from Oklahoma County, Oklahoma. A total of 13 participants, whose mean age was 53.8 years of age and whose education was at least that of high school graduate, participated in the study. The majority of the caregivers were children who were caring for parents. The participants were asked three basic questions relating to their experiences or frustrations and the questions were followed by a 45-minute discussion to allow for further elaboration. The Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), and the Zarit Burden Interview, combined with a demographic information form, was used to define the characteristics of the caregivers (Sheik, et al., 1986; Zarit, Reever & Bach-Peterson, 1980; Vitaliano, Russo, Yung, Becker, & Maiuro, 1991; National Center for Cost Containment, 1993). Findings from this study suggest that of the 13 participants only 2 could be classified as depressed. However, the caregivers expected information, referral for services and assistance in recognizing disease progression. These elements were sometimes lacking as well as not always having effctive caregiver-physician interaction. Greater attention by physicians to the needs, stressors, and expectations of African-American caregivers may improve the caregiver-physician interaction and may reduce caregiver stress. Further studies in this area can add to the sparsely available information.

Strategies for Efficient Computation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information

PubMed Central

Madan, Jason; Ades, Anthony E.; Price, Malcolm; Maitland, Kathryn; Jemutai, Julie; Revill, Paul; Welton, Nicky J.

2014-01-01

Expected value of information methods evaluate the potential health benefits that can be obtained from conducting new research to reduce uncertainty in the parameters of a cost-effectiveness analysis model, hence reducing decision uncertainty. Expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) provides an upper limit to the health gains that can be obtained from conducting a new study on a subset of parameters in the cost-effectiveness analysis and can therefore be used as a sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that most contribute to decision uncertainty and to help guide decisions around which types of study are of most value to prioritize for funding. A common general approach is to use nested Monte Carlo simulation to obtain an estimate of EVPPI. This approach is computationally intensive, can lead to significant sampling bias if an inadequate number of inner samples are obtained, and incorrect results can be obtained if correlations between parameters are not dealt with appropriately. In this article, we set out a range of methods for estimating EVPPI that avoid the need for nested simulation: reparameterization of the net benefit function, Taylor series approximations, and restricted cubic spline estimation of conditional expectations. For each method, we set out the generalized functional form that net benefit must take for the method to be valid. By specifying this functional form, our methods are able to focus on components of the model in which approximation is required, avoiding the complexities involved in developing statistical approximations for the model as a whole. Our methods also allow for any correlations that might exist between model parameters. We illustrate the methods using an example of fluid resuscitation in African children with severe malaria. PMID:24449434

Covariance of engineering management characteristics with engineering employee performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesketh, Andrew Arthur

1998-12-01

As business in the 1990's grapples with the impact of continuous improvement and quality to meet market demands, there is an increased need to improve the leadership capabilities of our managers. Engineers have indicated desire for certain managerial characteristics in their leadership but there have been no studies completed that approached the problem of determining what managerial characteristics were best at improving employee performance. This study addressed the idea of identifying certain managerial characteristics that enhance employee performance. In the early 1990's, McDonnell Douglas Aerospace in St. Louis used a forced distribution system and allocated 35% of its employees into a "exceeds expectations" category and 60% into a "meets expectations" category. A twenty-question 5 point Likert scale survey on managerial capabilities was administered to a sample engineering population that also obtained their "expectations" category. A single factor ANOVA on the survey results determined a statistical difference between the "exceeds" and "meets" employees with four of the managerial capability questions. The "exceeds expectations" employee indicated that supervision did a better job of supporting subordinate development, clearly communicating performance expectations, and providing timely performance feedback when compared to the "meets expectations" employee. The "meets expectations" employee felt that their opinions, when different from their supervisor's, were more often ignored when compared to the "exceeds expectations" employee. These four questions relate to two specific managerial characteristics, "gaining (informal) authority and support" or "control" characteristic and "providing assistance and guidance" or "command" characteristic, that can be emphasized in managerial training programs.

Screening of healthcare workers for tuberculosis: development and validation of a new health economic model to inform practice

PubMed Central

Eralp, Merve Nazli; Scholtes, Stefan; Martell, Geraldine; Winter, Robert

2012-01-01

Background Methods for determining cost-effectiveness of different treatments are well established, unlike appraisal of non-drug interventions, including novel diagnostics and biomarkers. Objective The authors develop and validate a new health economic model by comparing cost-effectiveness of tuberculin skin test (TST); blood test, interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) and TST followed by IGRA in conditional sequence, in screening healthcare workers for latent or active tuberculosis (TB). Design The authors focus on healthy life years gained as the benefit metric, rather than quality-adjusted life years given limited data to estimate quality adjustments of life years with TB and complications of treatment, like hepatitis. Healthy life years gained refer to the number of TB or hepatitis cases avoided and the increase in life expectancy. The authors incorporate disease and test parameters informed by systematic meta-analyses and clinical practice. Health and economic outcomes of each strategy are modelled as a decision tree in Markov chains, representing different health states informed by epidemiology. Cost and effectiveness values are generated as the individual is cycled through 20 years of the model. Key parameters undergo one-way and Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Setting Screening healthcare workers in secondary and tertiary care. Results IGRA is the most effective strategy, with incremental costs per healthy life year gained of £10 614–£20 929, base case, £8021–£18 348, market costs TST £45, IGRA £90, IGRA specificities of 99%–97%; mean (5%, 95%), £12 060 (£4137–£38 418) by Monte Carlo analysis. Conclusions Incremental costs per healthy life year gained, a conservative estimate of benefit, are comparable to the £20 000–£30 000 NICE band for IGRA alone, across wide differences in disease and test parameters. Health gains justify IGRA costs, even if IGRA tests cost three times TST. This health economic model offers a powerful tool for appraising non-drug interventions in the market and under development. PMID:22382118

Can role-play with interactive simulations enhance climate change knowledge, affect and intent to act?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Fracassi, E. P.; Franck, T.; Kapmeier, F.; Kurker, V.; Jones, A.; Rath, K.

2017-12-01

The strong scientific consensus about the reality and risks of anthropogenic climate change stands in stark contrast to widespread confusion and complacency among the public. Many efforts to close that gap, grounded in the information deficit model of risk communication, provide scientific information on climate change through reports and presentations. However, research shows that showing people research does not work: the gap between scientific and public understanding of climate change remains wide. Tools that are rigorously grounded in the science and motivate action on climate change are urgently needed. Here we assess the impact of one such tool, an interactive, role-play simulation, World Climate. Participants take the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement limiting warming to no more than 2°C. The C-ROADS climate simulation model then provides participants with immediate feedback about the expected impacts of their decisions. Participants use C-ROADS to explore the climate system and use the results to refine their negotiating positions, learning about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations and decision-making. Pre- and post-survey results from 21 sessions in eight nations showed significant gains in participants' climate change knowledge, affective engagement, intent to take action, and desire to learn. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in participants' desire to learn more and intention to act were associated with gains in affective engagement, particularly feelings of urgency and hope, but not climate knowledge. Gains were just as strong among participants who oppose government regulation, suggesting the simulation's potential to reach across political divides. Results indicate that simulations like World Climate offer a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed by science.

Reward modulates attention independently of action value in posterior parietal cortex

PubMed Central

Peck, Christopher J.; Jangraw, David C.; Suzuki, Mototaka; Efem, Richard; Gottlieb, Jacqueline

2009-01-01

While numerous studies explored the mechanisms of reward-based decisions (the choice of action based on expected gain), few asked how reward influences attention (the selection of information relevant for a decision). Here we show that a powerful determinant of attentional priority is the association between a stimulus and an appetitive reward. A peripheral cue heralded the delivery of reward (RC+) or no reward (RC−); to experience the predicted outcome monkeys made a saccade to a target that appeared unpredictably at the same or opposite location relative to the cue. Although the RC had no operant associations (did not specify the required saccade) they automatically biased attention, such that the RC+ attracted attention and RC− repelled attention from their location. Neurons in the lateral intraparietal area (LIP) encoded these attentional biases, maintaining sustained excitation at the location of an RC+ and inhibition at the location of an RC−. Contrary to the hypothesis that LIP encodes action value, neurons did not encode the expected reward of the saccade. Moreover, the cue-evoked biases were maladaptive, interfering with the required saccade, and they biases increased rather than abating with training, strikingly at odds with an adaptive decision process. After prolonged training valence selectivity appeared at shorter latencies and automatically transferred to a novel task context, suggesting that training produced visual plasticity. The results suggest that reward predictors gain automatic attentional priority regardless of their operant associations, and this valence-specific priority is encoded in LIP independently of the expected reward of an action. PMID:19741125

Walking back the cat: Unsupervised classification as an aid in "remote" fossil prospecting.

PubMed

Conroy, Glenn C

2014-01-01

Counterintelligence analysts use a technique called "walking back the cat'' to reveal "moles" or others passing on disinformation in which they compare what they now know as fact against what their agents or informers had told them to expect about certain persons or events. Thus, "walking back the cat" is a perfect metaphor for working backwards; that is, retracing the complex development of an event and examining the "run up" to it in order to gain useful insights about how that event unfolded. Perhaps paleoanthropology can profit from such an approach. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Arabidopsis Information Resource (TAIR): a comprehensive database and web-based information retrieval, analysis, and visualization system for a model plant

PubMed Central

Huala, Eva; Dickerman, Allan W.; Garcia-Hernandez, Margarita; Weems, Danforth; Reiser, Leonore; LaFond, Frank; Hanley, David; Kiphart, Donald; Zhuang, Mingzhe; Huang, Wen; Mueller, Lukas A.; Bhattacharyya, Debika; Bhaya, Devaki; Sobral, Bruno W.; Beavis, William; Meinke, David W.; Town, Christopher D.; Somerville, Chris; Rhee, Seung Yon

2001-01-01

Arabidopsis thaliana, a small annual plant belonging to the mustard family, is the subject of study by an estimated 7000 researchers around the world. In addition to the large body of genetic, physiological and biochemical data gathered for this plant, it will be the first higher plant genome to be completely sequenced, with completion expected at the end of the year 2000. The sequencing effort has been coordinated by an international collaboration, the Arabidopsis Genome Initiative (AGI). The rationale for intensive investigation of Arabidopsis is that it is an excellent model for higher plants. In order to maximize use of the knowledge gained about this plant, there is a need for a comprehensive database and information retrieval and analysis system that will provide user-friendly access to Arabidopsis information. This paper describes the initial steps we have taken toward realizing these goals in a project called The Arabidopsis Information Resource (TAIR) (www.arabidopsis.org). PMID:11125061

Whites but Not Blacks Gain Life Expectancy from Social Contacts.

PubMed

Assari, Shervin

2017-10-16

Background . Recent research suggests that the health gain from economic resources and psychological assets may be systematically larger for Whites than Blacks. Aim . This study aimed to assess whether the life expectancy gain associated with social contacts over a long follow up differs for Blacks and Whites. Methods . Data came from the Americans' Changing Lives (ACL) Study, 1986-2011. The sample was a nationally representative sample of American adults 25 and older, who were followed for up to 25 years ( n = 3361). Outcome was all-cause mortality. The main predictor was social contacts defined as number of regular visits with friends, relatives, and neighbors. Baseline demographics (age and gender), socioeconomic status (education, income, and employment), health behaviors (smoking and drinking), and health (chronic medical conditions, obesity, and depressive symptoms) were controlled. Race was the focal moderator. Cox proportional hazard models were used in the pooled sample and based on race. Results . More social contacts predicted higher life expectancy in the pooled sample. A significant interaction was found between race and social contacts, suggesting that the protective effect of more social contacts is smaller for Blacks than Whites. In stratified models, more social contacts predicted an increased life expectancy for Whites but not Blacks. Conclusion . Social contacts increase life expectancy for White but not Black Americans. This study introduces social contacts as another social resource that differentially affects health of Whites and Blacks.

Increased Life Expectancy in New York City, 2001-2010: An Exploration by Cause of Death and Demographic Characteristics.

PubMed

Li, Wenhui; Maduro, Gil A; Begier, Elizabeth M

2016-01-01

New York City's (NYC's) life expectancy gains have been greater than those seen nationally. We examined life-expectancy changes over the past decade in selected NYC subpopulations and explored which age groups and causes of death contributed most to the increases. We calculated life expectancy with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 2001-2010 by sex and race/ethnicity. Life expectancy was decomposed by age group and cause of death. Logistic regressions were conducted to reinforce the results from decomposition by controlling confounders. Overall, NYC residents' life expectancy at birth increased from 77.9 years (95% CI, 77.8-78.0) in 2001 to 80.9 years (95% CI, 80.8-81.0) in 2010. Decreases in deaths from heart disease, cancer, and HIV disease accounted for 50%, 16%, and 11%, respectively, of the gains. Decreased mortality in older age groups (≥65 years) accounted for 45.6% of the overall change. Life expectancy increased for both sexes, across all racial/ethnic groups, and for both the US-born and the foreign-born. Disparities in life expectancy decreased as overall life expectancy increased. Decreased mortality among older adults and from heart disease, cancer, and HIV infection accounted for most of the increases.

The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

2016-04-01

Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even with perfect information.

Prospect theory reflects selective allocation of attention.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Schulte-Mecklenbeck, Michael; Murphy, Ryan O; Hertwig, Ralph

2018-02-01

There is a disconnect in the literature between analyses of risky choice based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) and work on predecisional information processing. One likely reason is that for expectation models (e.g., CPT), it is often assumed that people behaved only as if they conducted the computations leading to the predicted choice and that the models are thus mute regarding information processing. We suggest that key psychological constructs in CPT, such as loss aversion and outcome and probability sensitivity, can be interpreted in terms of attention allocation. In two experiments, we tested hypotheses about specific links between CPT parameters and attentional regularities. Experiment 1 used process tracing to monitor participants' predecisional attention allocation to outcome and probability information. As hypothesized, individual differences in CPT's loss-aversion, outcome-sensitivity, and probability-sensitivity parameters (estimated from participants' choices) were systematically associated with individual differences in attention allocation to outcome and probability information. For instance, loss aversion was associated with the relative attention allocated to loss and gain outcomes, and a more strongly curved weighting function was associated with less attention allocated to probabilities. Experiment 2 manipulated participants' attention to losses or gains, causing systematic differences in CPT's loss-aversion parameter. This result indicates that attention allocation can to some extent cause choice regularities that are captured by CPT. Our findings demonstrate an as-if model's capacity to reflect characteristics of information processing. We suggest that the observed CPT-attention links can be harnessed to inform the development of process models of risky choice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Perceptions and Expectations of Online Graduate Students Regarding Synchronous Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailie, Jeffrey L.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to gain an increased understanding of the perceptions and expectations of a group of experienced online student participants regarding synchronous events in the higher learning setting. Areas of inquiry posed to online student panelists included whether they expected live events to be included in their classes, and…

Homicides In Mexico Reversed Life Expectancy Gains For Men And Slowed Them For Women, 2000-10.

PubMed

Aburto, José Manuel; Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; García-Guerrero, Victor Manuel; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

2016-01-01

Life expectancy in Mexico increased for more than six decades but then stagnated in the period 2000-10. This decade was characterized by the enactment of a major health care reform-the implementation of the Seguro Popular de Salud (Popular Health Insurance), which was intended to provide coverage to the entire Mexican population-and by an unexpected increase in homicide mortality. We assessed the impact on life expectancy of conditions amenable to medical service-those sensitive to public health policies and changes in behaviors, homicide, and diabetes-by analyzing mortality trends at the state level. We found that life expectancy among males deteriorated from 2005 to 2010, compared to increases from 2000 to 2005. Females in most states experienced small gains in life expectancy between 2000 and 2010. The unprecedented rise in homicides after 2005 led to a reversal in life expectancy increases among males and a slowdown among females in most states in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Scientific Rationale and Requirements for a Global Seismic Network on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, Sean C.; Anderson, Don L.; Banerdt, W. Bruce; Butler, Rhett G.; Davis, Paul M.; Duennebier, Frederick K.; Nakamura, Yosio; Okal, Emile A.; Phillips, Roger J.

1991-01-01

Following a brief overview of the mission concepts for a Mars Global Network Mission as of the time of the workshop, we present the principal scientific objectives to be achieved by a Mars seismic network. We review the lessons for extraterrestrial seismology gained from experience to date on the Moon and on Mars. An important unknown on Mars is the expected rate of seismicity, but theoretical expectations and extrapolation from lunar experience both support the view that seismicity rates, wave propagation characteristics, and signal-to-noise ratios are favorable to the collection of a scientifically rich dataset during the multiyear operation of a global seismic experiment. We discuss how particular types of seismic waves will provide the most useful information to address each of the scientific objectives, and this discussion provides the basis for a strategy for station siting. Finally, we define the necessary technical requirements for the seismic stations.

Stakeholder e-Participation in Local Planning: The Camargue Park Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desquinabo, Nicolas; Ferrand, Nils; Marlier, Julie

The goal of this study is to evaluate several features and outcomes of the e-consultation organized by the Camargue Natural Park on its management plan. To estimate the benefits of the selected Internet devices, we have compared our assessment of this e-consultation with other face-to-face participative events organized on the same management plan. Following "computer-mediated communication" and deliberative theories, we expected that the tested e-tools would increase the deliberative features of the stakeholder participation. Several economic and organisational benefits were also expected. Our first results confirm the organisational benefits of this e-consultation (information gain, cost of the process, etc.). Several "deliberative" benefits have also been observed (more opinion and thematic diversity without an increase of "flames"). Nevertheless, speech is apparently more concentrated than in face-to-face events, even if many "non-posters" visited the consultation site but did not post because they had "all their comments already included".

Pollinator-mediated natural selection in Penstemon digitalis.

PubMed

Parachnowitsch, Amy; Kessler, André

2010-12-01

Measuring the agents of natural selection is important because it allows us to understand not only which traits are expected to evolve but also why they will evolve. Natural selection by pollinators on floral traits is often assumed because in outcrossing animal-pollinated plants flowers are generally thought to function as advertisements of rewards directed at pollinators. We tested the role of bee pollinators in selection on Penstemon digitalis and found that pollinators were driving selection for larger and more flowers. However, what makes our publication unique is the additional information we gained from reviewing the few other studies that also directly tested whether pollinators were agents of selection on floral traits. As we would expect if pollinators are important agents of selection, selection on floral traits was significantly stronger when pollinators were present than when they were experimentally removed. Taken together, these results suggest that pollinators can be important drivers of selection in contemporary populations.

Family members' perceptions of augmentative and alternative communication device use.

PubMed

Bailey, Rita L; Parette, Howard P; Stoner, Julia B; Angell, Maureen E; Carroll, Kathleen

2006-01-01

Although advancements in technology have expanded the use of augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) devices for children with disabilities, the use of AAC devices in school and home settings is often inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to examine family members' perceptions regarding the use of AAC devices. Factors that were perceived to affect student's use of AAC devices, family expectations, and benefits of AAC device use were explored. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 6 family members (primary caregivers) of 7 youth who primarily use AAC devices to communicate in the school environment. The interviews were analyzed using cross-case analysis. A variety of common perspectives emerged from the data, including four thematic categories: expectations, facilitators, barriers, and benefits of AAC device use. Information gained in this investigation may be used to improve professional-family and teaming relationships and serve to benefit AAC users in school and home settings.

Tackling of unhealthy diets, physical inactivity, and obesity: health effects and cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Cecchini, Michele; Sassi, Franco; Lauer, Jeremy A; Lee, Yong Y; Guajardo-Barron, Veronica; Chisholm, Daniel

2010-11-20

The obesity epidemic is spreading to low-income and middle-income countries as a result of new dietary habits and sedentary ways of life, fuelling chronic diseases and premature mortality. In this report we present an assessment of public health strategies designed to tackle behavioural risk factors for chronic diseases that are closely linked with obesity, including aspects of diet and physical inactivity, in Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. England was included for comparative purposes. Several population-based prevention policies can be expected to generate substantial health gains while entirely or largely paying for themselves through future reductions of health-care expenditures. These strategies include health information and communication strategies that improve population awareness about the benefits of healthy eating and physical activity; fiscal measures that increase the price of unhealthy food content or reduce the cost of healthy foods rich in fibre; and regulatory measures that improve nutritional information or restrict the marketing of unhealthy foods to children. A package of measures for the prevention of chronic diseases would deliver substantial health gains, with a very favourable cost-effectiveness profile. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing adoption and research design decisions simultaneously: the role of value of sample information analysis.

PubMed

McKenna, Claire; Claxton, Karl

2011-01-01

to estimate the cost-effectiveness of technologies are well developed with increasing experience of their application to inform adoption decisions in a timely way. However, the experience of using similarly explicit methods to inform the associated research decisions is less well developed despite appropriate methods being available with an increasing number of applications in health. The authors demonstrate that evaluation of both adoption and research decisions is feasible within typical time and resource constraints relevant to policy decisions, even in situations in which data are sparse and formal elicitation is required. In addition to demonstrating the application of expected value of sample information (EVSI) in these circumstances, the authors examine and carefully distinguish the impact that the research decision is expected to have on patients while enrolled in the trial, those not enrolled, and once the trial reports. In doing so, the authors are able to account for the range of opportunity cost associated with research and evaluate a number of s including length of follow-up and sample size. The authors also explore the implications for research design of conducting research while the technology is approved for widespread use and whether approval should be withheld until research reports. In doing so, the authors highlight the impact of irrecoverable opportunity costs when the initial costs of a technology are compensated only by later gains in health outcome.

Study of nonpoint source nutrient loading in the Patuxent River basin, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preston, S.D.

1997-01-01

Study of nonpoint-source (NPS) nutrient loading in Maryland has focused on the Patuxent watershed because of its importance and representativeness of conditions in the State. Evaluation of NPS nutrient loading has been comprehensive and has included long-term monitoring, detailed watershed modeling, and synoptic sampling studies. A large amount of information has been compiled for the watershed and that information is being used to identify primary controls and efficient management strategies for NPS nutrient loading. Results of the Patuxent NPS study have identified spatial trends in water quality that appear to be related to basin charcteristics such as land use, physiography, andgeology. Evaluation of the data compiled by the study components is continuing and is expected to provide more detailed assessments of the reasons for spatial trends. In particular, ongoing evaluation of the watershed model output is expected to provide detailed information on the relative importance of nutrient sources and transport pathways across the entire watershed. Planned future directions of NPS evaluation in the State of Maryland include continued study of water quality in the Patuxent watershed and a shift in emphasis to a statewide approach. Eventually, the statewide approach will become the primary approach usedby the State to evaluate NPS loading. The information gained in the Patuxent study and the tools developed will represent valuable assets indeveloping the statewide NPS assessment program.

The enduring effects of smoking in Latin America.

PubMed

Palloni, Alberto; Novak, Beatriz; Pinto-Aguirre, Guido

2015-06-01

We estimated smoking-attributable mortality, assessed the impact of past smoking on recent mortality, and computed expected future losses in life expectancy caused by past and current smoking behavior in Latin America and the Caribbean. We used a regression-based procedure to estimate smoking-attributable mortality and information for 6 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay) for the years 1980 through 2009 contained in the Latin American Mortality Database (LAMBdA). These countries jointly comprise more than two thirds of the adult population in Latin America and the Caribbean and have the region's highest rates of smoking prevalence. During the last 10 years, the impact of smoking was equivalent to losses in male (aged ≥ 50 years) life expectancy of about 2 to 6 years. These effects are likely to increase, particularly for females, both in the study countries and in those that joined the epidemic at later dates. Unless innovations in the detection and treatment of chronic diseases are introduced soon, continued gains in adult survival in Latin America and the Caribbean region may slow down considerably.

Thermodynamical interpretation of an adaptive walk on a Mt. Fuji-type fitness landscape: Einstein relation-like formula holds in a stochastic evolution.

PubMed

Aita, Takuyo; Husimi, Yuzuru

2003-11-21

We have theoretically studied the statistical properties of adaptive walks (or hill-climbing) on a Mt. Fuji-type fitness landscape in the multi-dimensional sequence space through mathematical analysis and computer simulation. The adaptive walk is characterized by the "mutation distance" d as the step-width of the walker and the "population size" N as the number of randomly generated d-fold point mutants to be screened. In addition to the fitness W, we introduced the following quantities analogous to thermodynamical concepts: "free fitness" G(W) is identical with W+T x S(W), where T is the "evolutionary temperature" T infinity square root of d/lnN and S(W) is the entropy as a function of W, and the "evolutionary force" X is identical with d(G(W)/T)/dW, that is caused by the mutation and selection pressure. It is known that a single adaptive walker rapidly climbs on the fitness landscape up to the stationary state where a "mutation-selection-random drift balance" is kept. In our interpretation, the walker tends to the maximal free fitness state, driven by the evolutionary force X. Our major findings are as follows: First, near the stationary point W*, the "climbing rate" J as the expected fitness change per generation is described by J approximately L x X with L approximately V/2, where V is the variance of fitness distribution on a local landscape. This simple relationship is analogous to the well-known Einstein relation in Brownian motion. Second, the "biological information gain" (DeltaG/T) through adaptive walk can be described by combining the Shannon's information gain (DeltaS) and the "fitness information gain" (DeltaW/T).

Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C in the Aged - Does It Impact Life Expectancy? A Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Maor, Yaakov; Malnick, Stephen D H; Melzer, Ehud; Leshno, Moshe

2016-01-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that the efficacy of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in patients over 70 is similar to that of younger age groups. Evidence continues to mount that life expectancy (LE) increases with successful treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) patients with advanced fibrosis. The evidence in older people is more limited. Our aim was to estimate the life year (LY) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by treatment of naïve patients with HCV as a function of patient's age and fibrosis stage. We constructed a Markov model of HCV progression toward advanced liver disease. The primary outcome was LY and QALY saved. The model and the sustained virological response of HCV infected subjects treated with a fixed-dose combination of the NS5B polymerase inhibitor Sofosbuvir and the NS5A replication complex inhibitor Ledipasvir were based on the published literature and expert opinion. Generally, both the number of LY gained and QALY gained gradually decreased with advancing age but the rate of decline was slower with more advanced fibrosis stage. For patients with fibrosis stage F1, F2 and F3, LY gained dropped below six months if treated by the age of 55, 65 or 70 years, respectively, while for a patient with fibrosis stage F4, the gain was one LY if treated by the age of 75. The QALY gained for treated over untreated elderly were reasonably high even for those treated at early fibrosis stage. There is a significant life expectancy benefit to HCV treatment in patients up to age 75 with advanced-stage fibrosis.

Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C in the Aged – Does It Impact Life Expectancy? A Decision Analysis

PubMed Central

Maor, Yaakov; Malnick, Stephen D. H.; Melzer, Ehud; Leshno, Moshe

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Recent studies have demonstrated that the efficacy of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in patients over 70 is similar to that of younger age groups. Evidence continues to mount that life expectancy (LE) increases with successful treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) patients with advanced fibrosis. The evidence in older people is more limited. Our aim was to estimate the life year (LY) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by treatment of naïve patients with HCV as a function of patient's age and fibrosis stage. Methods We constructed a Markov model of HCV progression toward advanced liver disease. The primary outcome was LY and QALY saved. The model and the sustained virological response of HCV infected subjects treated with a fixed-dose combination of the NS5B polymerase inhibitor Sofosbuvir and the NS5A replication complex inhibitor Ledipasvir were based on the published literature and expert opinion. Results Generally, both the number of LY gained and QALY gained gradually decreased with advancing age but the rate of decline was slower with more advanced fibrosis stage. For patients with fibrosis stage F1, F2 and F3, LY gained dropped below six months if treated by the age of 55, 65 or 70 years, respectively, while for a patient with fibrosis stage F4, the gain was one LY if treated by the age of 75. The QALY gained for treated over untreated elderly were reasonably high even for those treated at early fibrosis stage. Conclusions There is a significant life expectancy benefit to HCV treatment in patients up to age 75 with advanced-stage fibrosis. PMID:27410963

Health Gains and Financial Protection Provided by the Ethiopian Mental Health Strategy: an Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Kjell Arne; Strand, Kirsten Bjerkreim; Fekadu, Abebaw; Chisholm, Dan

2017-04-01

Mental and neurological (MN) health care has long been neglected in low-income settings. This paper estimates health and non-health impacts of fully publicly financed care for selected key interventions in the National Mental Health Strategy in Ethiopia for depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and epilepsy. A methodology of extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) is applied to MN health care in Ethiopia. The impact of providing a package of selected MN interventions free of charge in Ethiopia is estimated for: epilepsy (75% coverage, phenobarbital), depression (30% coverage, fluoxetine, cognitive therapy and proactive case management), bipolar affective disorder (50% coverage, valproate and psychosocial therapy) and schizophrenia (75% coverage, haloperidol plus psychosocial treatment). Multiple outcomes are estimated and disaggregated across wealth quintiles: (1) healthy-life-years (HALYs) gained; (2) household out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures averted; (3) expected financial risk protection (FRP); and (4) productivity impact. The MN package is expected to cost US$177 million and gain 155,000 HALYs (epilepsy US$37m and 64,500 HALYs; depression US$65m and 61,300 HALYs; bipolar disorder US$44m and 20,300 HALYs; and schizophrenia US$31m and 8,900 HALYs) annually. The health benefits would be concentrated among the poorest groups for all interventions. Universal public finance averts little household OOP expenditures and provides minimal FRP because of the low current utilization of these MN services in Ethiopia. In addition, economic benefits of US$ 51 million annually are expected from depression treatment in Ethiopia as a result of productivity gains, equivalent to 78% of the investment cost. The total MN package in Ethiopia is estimated to cost equivalent to US$1.8 per capita and yields large progressive health benefits. The expected productivity gain is substantially higher than the expected FRP. The ECEA approach seems to fit well with the current policy challenges and captures important equity concerns of scaling up MN programmes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Cost-effectiveness of the 21-gene breast cancer assay in Mexico.

PubMed

Bargalló-Rocha, Juan Enrique; Lara-Medina, Fernando; Pérez-Sánchez, Victor; Vázquez-Romo, Rafael; Villarreal-Garza, Cynthia; Martínez-Said, Hector; Shaw-Dulin, Robin J; Mohar-Betancourt, Alejandro; Hunt, Barnaby; Plun-Favreau, Juliette; Valentine, William J

2015-03-01

The 21-gene breast cancer assay (Oncotype DX(®); Genomic Health, Inc.) is a validated diagnostic test that predicts the likelihood of adjuvant chemotherapy benefit and 10-year risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone-receptor-positive, human epidermal growth receptor 2-negative, early-stage breast cancer. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using the assay to inform adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in Mexico. A Markov model was developed to make long-term projections of distant recurrence, survival, and direct costs in scenarios using conventional diagnostic procedures or the 21-gene assay to inform adjuvant chemotherapy recommendations. Transition probabilities and risk adjustment were taken from published landmark trials. Costs [2011 Mexican Pesos (MXN)] were estimated from an Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social perspective. Costs and clinical benefits were discounted at 5% annually. Following assay testing, approximately 66% of patients previously receiving chemotherapy were recommended to receive hormone therapy only after consideration of assay results. Furthermore, approximately 10% of those previously allocated hormone therapy alone had their recommendation changed to add chemotherapy. This optimized therapy allocation led to improved mean life expectancy by 0.068 years per patient and increased direct costs by MXN 1707 [2011 United States Dollars (USD) 129] per patient versus usual care. This is equated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of MXN 25,244 (USD 1914) per life-year gained. In early-stage breast cancer patients in Mexico, guiding decision making on adjuvant therapy using the 21-gene assay was projected to improve life expectancy in comparison with the current standard of care, with an ICER of MXN 25,244 (USD 1914) per life-year gained, which is within the range generally considered cost-effective.

The timber-supply potential of intensive management in upland oak forests of Ohio

Treesearch

David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick; Owen W. Herrick

1973-01-01

Two alternative programs of intensive timber management were defined for Ohio's oak-hickory forests. Their potentials were evaluated by comparing the expected yields and yield values of each program with those expected from a continuation of current management practices. Neither program would produce large increases in timber yield. But the expected gains in yield...

Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization.

PubMed

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Sim, Sam K Y; Chee, Michael W L; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

2015-01-01

We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble) and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices) within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning. We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61-80 years old) were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic decision-making for losses through changes in both individual preferences and the strategies individuals employ.

Isolation and Characterization of Novel Polymorphic Microsatellite Markers for Cimex hemipterus F. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

PubMed

Seri Masran, Siti Nor Ain; Ab Majid, Abdul Hafiz

2018-05-04

Due to the growing public health and tourism awareness, Cimex hemipterus Fabricius (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) has gained a great interest in increasing reported infestation cases in tropical regions of the world, including Malaysia. Since the information on the molecular ecology and population biology of this species are tremendously lacking, the isolation and development of molecular markers can be used to determine its genetic structure. In this study, novel microsatellite primers isolated from enriched genomic libraries of C. hemipterus were developed using 454 Roche shotgun sequencing. Seven validated polymorphic microsatellite primers were consistently amplified and characterized from 70 tropical bed bugs collected from seven locations throughout Malaysia. The number of alleles per locus identified ranged from 6 to 14. Comparison of loci for overall and between population were done with mean observed and expected heterozygosity were determined at 0.320 and 0.814, 0.320 and 0.727, respectively. Polymorphic information criteria (PIC) valued the markers as highly informative as PIC >0.5. Overall population, they are possibly in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium with loci Ch_09ttn, Ch_01dn, and Ch_13dn showing signs of a null allele. There were no scoring errors caused by stutter peaks, no large allele dropout was detected for all loci and showed no evidence of linkage disequilibrium. In conclusion, all seven molecular microsatellite markers identified can be beneficially used to gain more information on the population genetic structure and breeding patterns of C. hemipterus as well as the relationship of dispersal and infestation.

Qualitative study investigating the commissioning process for older people's services provided by third sector organisations: SOPRANO study protocol.

PubMed

Sands, Gina; Chadborn, Neil; Craig, Chris; Gladman, John

2016-05-18

The commissioning of third sector services for older people may influence the quality, availability and coordination of services for older people. The SOPRANO study aims to understand the relationships between and processes of commissioning bodies and third sector organisations providing health and social care services for older people. This qualitative study will be based in the East Midlands region of England. An initial scoping survey of commissioners will give an overview of services to maintain the health and well-being of older people in the community that are commissioned. Following this, semistructured interviews will be conducted with 4 sample groups: health and social care commissioners, service provider managers, service provider case workers and older service users. A sample size of 10-15 participants in each of the 4 groups is expected to be sufficient to reach data saturation, resulting in a final expected sample size of 40-60 participants. Informed consent will be gained from all participants, and those unable to provide informed consent will be excluded. The interview data will be analysed by 2 researchers using framework content analysis. Approval for the study has been gained from the University of Nottingham School of Medicine ethical review board, and the relevant approvals have been gained from the National Health Service (NHS) research and development departments for interviewing NHS staff. Early engagement with a wide range of stakeholders will ensure that the research findings are extensively disseminated to relevant stakeholders (including commissioners and third sector providers) in an accessible format using the extensive communication networks available to the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care CLAHRCs (applied health research organisations covering all of England). The study will also be disseminated through academic routes such as conference presentations and journal papers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Variation in minimum desired cardiovascular disease-free longevity benefit from statin and antihypertensive medications: a cross-sectional study of patient and primary care physician perspectives.

PubMed

Jaspers, Nicole E M; Visseren, Frank L J; Numans, Mattijs E; Smulders, Yvo M; van Loenen Martinet, Fere A; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Dorresteijn, Jannick A N

2018-05-26

Expressing therapy benefit from a lifetime perspective, instead of only a 10-year perspective, is both more intuitive and of growing importance in doctor-patient communication. In cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, lifetime estimates are increasingly accessible via online decision tools. However, it is unclear what gain in life expectancy is considered meaningful by those who would use the estimates in clinical practice. We therefore quantified lifetime and 10-year benefit thresholds at which physicians and patients perceive statin and antihypertensive therapy as meaningful, and compared the thresholds with clinically attainable benefit. Cross-sectional study. (1) continuing medical education conference in December 2016 for primary care physicians;(2) information session in April 2017 for patients. 400 primary care physicians and 523 patients in the Netherlands. Months gain of CVD-free life expectancy at which lifelong statin therapy is perceived as meaningful, and months gain at which 10 years of statin and antihypertensive therapy is perceived as meaningful. Physicians were framed as users for lifelong and prescribers for 10-year therapy. Meaningful benefit was reported as median (IQR). Meaningful lifetime statin benefit was 24 months (IQR 23-36) in physicians (as users) and 42 months (IQR 12-42) in patients willing to consider therapy. Meaningful 10-year statin benefit was 12 months (IQR 10-12) for prescribing (physicians) and 14 months (IQR 10-14) for using (patients). Meaningful 10-year antihypertensive benefit was 12 months (IQR 8-12) for prescribing (physicians) and 14 months (IQR 10-14) for using (patients). Women desired greater benefit than men. Age, CVD status and co-medication had minimal effects on outcomes. Both physicians and patients report a large variation in meaningful longevity benefit. Desired benefit differs between physicians and patients and exceeds what is clinically attainable. Clinicians should recognise these discrepancies when prescribing therapy and implement individualised medicine and shared decision-making. Decision tools could provide information on realistic therapy benefit. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Motivation, Classroom Environment, and Learning in Introductory Geology: A Hierarchical Linear Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, L. A.; Hilpert, J. C.; Van Der Hoeven Kraft, K.; Budd, D.; Jones, M. H.; Matheney, R.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Perkins, D.; Stempien, J. A.; Wirth, K. R.

2013-12-01

Prior research has indicated that highly motivated students perform better and that learning increases in innovative, reformed classrooms, but untangling the student effects from the instructor effects is essential to understanding how to best support student learning. Using a hierarchical linear model, we examine these effects separately and jointly. We use data from nearly 2,000 undergraduate students surveyed by the NSF-funded GARNET (Geoscience Affective Research NETwork) project in 65 different introductory geology classes at research universities, public masters-granting universities, liberal arts colleges and community colleges across the US. Student level effects were measured as increases in expectancy and self-regulation using the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ; Pintrich et al., 1991). Instructor level effects were measured using the Reformed Teaching Observation Protocol, (RTOP; Sawada et al., 2000), with higher RTOP scores indicating a more reformed, student-centered classroom environment. Learning was measured by learning gains on a Geology Concept Inventory (GCI; Libarkin and Anderson, 2005) and normalized final course grade. The hierarchical linear model yielded significant results at several levels. At the student level, increases in expectancy and self-regulation are significantly and positively related to higher grades regardless of instructor; the higher the increase, the higher the grade. At the instructor level, RTOP scores are positively related to normalized average GCI learning gains. The higher the RTOP score, the higher the average class GCI learning gains. Across both levels, average class GCI learning gains are significantly and positively related to student grades; the higher the GCI learning gain, the higher the grade. Further, the RTOP scores are significantly and negatively related to the relationship between expectancy and course grade. The lower the RTOP score, the higher the correlation between change in expectancy and grade. As such, students with low motivation show higher grades and greater learning gains in high RTOP (student-centered) classrooms than in low RTOP ones. These results support the recommendation of student-centered practices in the classroom and consideration of student motivation in our approach to the future of geoscience education.

How do women feel about being weighed during pregnancy? A qualitative exploration of the opinions and experiences of postnatal women.

PubMed

Allen-Walker, Virginia; Mullaney, Laura; Turner, Michael J; Woodside, Jayne V; Holmes, Valerie A; McCartney, Daniel Ma; McKinley, Michelle C

2017-06-01

to explore routine weighing in antenatal care and weight management in pregnancy with women who have been weighed during pregnancy. a qualitative study utilising semi-structured telephone interviews, and thematic analysis. participants resided in Dublin, Ireland and had been weighed during pregnancy. individual telephone interviews conducted with ten postpartum women (nine months postpartum). experiences of routine weighing were positive, and participants believed it should be part of standard antenatal care. Several benefits to routine weighing were cited, including providing reassurance and minimising postpartum weight retention. It was felt that there was a lack of information provided on gestational weight gain and healthy lifestyle in pregnancy, and that healthcare professionals are ideally placed to provide this advice. Increased information provision was seen as a method to improve healthy lifestyle behaviours in pregnancy. these findings contribute to the current debate about the re-introduction of routine weighing throughout pregnancy (Allen-Walker et al., 2016). Women stated that they expected to be weighed during pregnancy and, contrary to previous claims, there was no evidence that routine weighing during antenatal care caused anxiety. From discussions it was clear that women desired more information on gestational weight gain and a healthy lifestyle, and felt that health professionals should provide this. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Using value of information analysis in decision making about applied research. The case of genetic screening for hemochromatosis in Germany].

PubMed

Rogowski, W H; Grosse, S D; Meyer, E; John, J; Palmer, S

2012-05-01

Public decision makers face demands to invest in applied research in order to accelerate the adoption of new genetic tests. However, such an investment is profitable only if the results gained from further investigations have a significant impact on health care practice. An upper limit for the value of additional information aimed at improving the basis for reimbursement decisions is given by the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). This study illustrates the significance of the concept of EVPI on the basis of a probabilistic cost-effectiveness model of screening for hereditary hemochromatosis among German men. In the present example, population-based screening can barely be recommended at threshold values of 50,000 or 100,000 Euro per life year gained and also the value of additional research which might cause this decision to be overturned is small: At the mentioned threshold values, the EVPI in the German public health care system was ca. 500,000 and 2,200,000 Euro, respectively. An analysis of EVPI by individual parameters or groups of parameters shows that additional research about adherence to preventive phlebotomy could potentially provide the highest benefit. The potential value of further research also depends on methodological assumptions regarding the decision maker's time horizon as well as on scenarios with an impact on the number of affected patients and the cost-effectiveness of screening.

Biodiversity gains from efficient use of private sponsorship for flagship species conservation.

PubMed

Bennett, Joseph R; Maloney, Richard; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-22

To address the global extinction crisis, both efficient use of existing conservation funding and new sources of funding are vital. Private sponsorship of charismatic 'flagship' species conservation represents an important source of new funding, but has been criticized as being inefficient. However, the ancillary benefits of privately sponsored flagship species conservation via actions benefiting other species have not been quantified, nor have the benefits of incorporating such sponsorship into objective prioritization protocols. Here, we use a comprehensive dataset of conservation actions for the 700 most threatened species in New Zealand to examine the potential biodiversity gains from national private flagship species sponsorship programmes. We find that private funding for flagship species can clearly result in additional species and phylogenetic diversity conserved, via conservation actions shared with other species. When private flagship species funding is incorporated into a prioritization protocol to preferentially sponsor shared actions, expected gains can be more than doubled. However, these gains are consistently smaller than expected gains in a hypothetical scenario where private funding could be optimally allocated among all threatened species. We recommend integrating private sponsorship of flagship species into objective prioritization protocols to sponsor efficient actions that maximize biodiversity gains, or wherever possible, encouraging private donations for broader biodiversity goals. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity gains from efficient use of private sponsorship for flagship species conservation

PubMed Central

Bennett, Joseph R.; Maloney, Richard; Possingham, Hugh P.

2015-01-01

To address the global extinction crisis, both efficient use of existing conservation funding and new sources of funding are vital. Private sponsorship of charismatic ‘flagship’ species conservation represents an important source of new funding, but has been criticized as being inefficient. However, the ancillary benefits of privately sponsored flagship species conservation via actions benefiting other species have not been quantified, nor have the benefits of incorporating such sponsorship into objective prioritization protocols. Here, we use a comprehensive dataset of conservation actions for the 700 most threatened species in New Zealand to examine the potential biodiversity gains from national private flagship species sponsorship programmes. We find that private funding for flagship species can clearly result in additional species and phylogenetic diversity conserved, via conservation actions shared with other species. When private flagship species funding is incorporated into a prioritization protocol to preferentially sponsor shared actions, expected gains can be more than doubled. However, these gains are consistently smaller than expected gains in a hypothetical scenario where private funding could be optimally allocated among all threatened species. We recommend integrating private sponsorship of flagship species into objective prioritization protocols to sponsor efficient actions that maximize biodiversity gains, or wherever possible, encouraging private donations for broader biodiversity goals. PMID:25808885

The Fusion Gain Analysis of the Inductively Driven Liner Compression Based Fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimazu, Akihisa; Slough, John

2016-10-01

An analytical analysis of the fusion gain expected in the inductively driven liner compression (IDLC) based fusion is conducted to identify the fusion gain scaling at various operating conditions. The fusion based on the IDLC is a magneto-inertial fusion concept, where a Field-Reversed Configuration (FRC) plasmoid is compressed via the inductively-driven metal liner to drive the FRC to fusion conditions. In the past, an approximate scaling law for the expected fusion gain for the IDLC based fusion was obtained under the key assumptions of (1) D-T fuel at 5-40 keV, (2) adiabatic scaling laws for the FRC dynamics, (3) FRC energy dominated by the pressure balance with the edge magnetic field at the peak compression, and (4) the liner dwell time being liner final diameter divided by the peak liner velocity. In this study, various assumptions made in the previous derivation is relaxed to study the change in the fusion gain scaling from the previous result of G ml1 / 2 El11 / 8 , where ml is the liner mass and El is the peak liner kinetic energy. The implication from the modified fusion gain scaling on the performance of the IDLC fusion reactor system is also explored.

The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices Without Trade-Offs

PubMed Central

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2010-01-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, we generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (i) Allais' paradox, (ii) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (iii) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (lottery tickets), (iv) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (buying insurance), (v) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (vi) certainty effect, (vii) possibility effect, and (viii) intransitivities. We test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared to previously proposed heuristics and three modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. PMID:16637767

Diverging Life Expectancies and Voting Patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election.

PubMed

Bor, Jacob

2017-10-01

To assess whether voting patterns in the 2016 US presidential election were correlated with long-run trends in county life expectancy. I examined county-level voting data from the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections and assessed Donald Trump's share of the 2016 vote, change in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016, and changes in absolute numbers of Democratic and Republican votes. County-level estimates of life expectancy at birth were obtained for 1980 and 2014 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Changes in county life expectancy from 1980 to 2014 were strongly negatively associated with Trump's vote share, with less support for Trump in counties experiencing greater survival gains. Counties in which life expectancy stagnated or declined saw a 10-percentage-point increase in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016. Residents of counties left out from broader life expectancy gains abandoned the Democratic Party in the 2016 presidential election. Since coming to power, the Trump administration has proposed cuts to health insurance for the poor, social programs, health research, and environmental and worker protections, which are key determinants of population health. Health gaps likely will continue to widen without significant public investment in population health.

Quantifying the risks and benefits of efavirenz use in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the United States

PubMed Central

Hsu, HE; Rydzak, CE; Cotich, KL; Wang, B; Sax, PE; Losina, E; Freedberg, KA; Goldie, SJ; Lu, Z; Walensky, RP

2010-01-01

Objectives We quantified the benefits (life expectancy gains) and harms (efavirenz-related teratogenicity) associated with using efavirenz in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the United States. Methods We used data from the Women’s Interagency HIV Study in an HIV disease simulation model to estimate life expectancy in women who receive an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral regimen compared with those who delay efavirenz use and receive a boosted protease inhibitor-based initial regimen. To estimate excess risk of teratogenic events with and without efavirenz exposure per 100,000 women, we incorporated literature-based rates of pregnancy, live births, and teratogenic events into a decision analytic model. We assumed a teratogenicity risk of 2.90 events/100 live births in women exposed to efavirenz during pregnancy and 2.68/100 live births in unexposed women. Results Survival for HIV-infected women who received an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy regimen was 0.89 years greater than for women receiving non-efavirenz-based initial therapy (28.91 vs. 28.02 years). The rate of teratogenic events was 77.26/100,000 exposed women, compared with 72.46/100,000 unexposed women. Survival estimates were sensitive to variations in treatment efficacy and AIDS-related mortality. Estimates of excess teratogenic events were most sensitive to pregnancy rates and number of teratogenic events/100 live births in efavirenz-exposed women. Conclusions Use of non-efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected women of childbearing age may reduce life expectancy gains from antiretroviral treatment, but may also prevent teratogenic events. Decision-making regarding efavirenz use presents a tradeoff between these two risks; this study can inform discussions between patients and health care providers. PMID:20561082

Quantifying the risks and benefits of efavirenz use in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the USA.

PubMed

Hsu, H E; Rydzak, C E; Cotich, K L; Wang, B; Sax, P E; Losina, E; Freedberg, K A; Goldie, S J; Lu, Z; Walensky, R P

2011-02-01

The aim of the study was to quantify the benefits (life expectancy gains) and risks (efavirenz-related teratogenicity) associated with using efavirenz in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the USA. We used data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study in an HIV disease simulation model to estimate life expectancy in women who receive an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral regimen compared with those who delay efavirenz use and receive a boosted protease inhibitor-based initial regimen. To estimate excess risk of teratogenic events with and without efavirenz exposure per 100,000 women, we incorporated literature-based rates of pregnancy, live births, and teratogenic events into a decision analytic model. We assumed a teratogenicity risk of 2.90 events/100 live births in women exposed to efavirenz during pregnancy and 2.68/100 live births in unexposed women. Survival for HIV-infected women who received an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen was 0.89 years greater than for women receiving non-efavirenz-based initial therapy (28.91 vs. 28.02 years). The rate of teratogenic events was 77.26/100,000 exposed women, compared with 72.46/100,000 unexposed women. Survival estimates were sensitive to variations in treatment efficacy and AIDS-related mortality. Estimates of excess teratogenic events were most sensitive to pregnancy rates and number of teratogenic events/100 live births in efavirenz-exposed women. Use of non-efavirenz-based initial ART in HIV-infected women of childbearing age may reduce life expectancy gains from antiretroviral treatment, but may also prevent teratogenic events. Decision-making regarding efavirenz use presents a trade-off between these two risks; this study can inform discussions between patients and health care providers.

Materials inspired by mathematics.

PubMed

Kotani, Motoko; Ikeda, Susumu

2016-01-01

Our world is transforming into an interacting system of the physical world and the digital world. What will be the materials science in the new era? With the rising expectations of the rapid development of computers, information science and mathematical science including statistics and probability theory, 'data-driven materials design' has become a common term. There is knowledge and experience gained in the physical world in the form of know-how and recipes for the creation of material. An important key is how we establish vocabulary and grammar to translate them into the language of the digital world. In this article, we outline how materials science develops when it encounters mathematics, showing some emerging directions.

Consumer-directed health care and the courts: let the buyer (and seller) beware.

PubMed

Jacobson, Peter D; Tunick, Michael R

2007-01-01

In consumer-directed health care, patients will be expected to exert greater control over their spending decisions than before. As consumer-directed care gains market acceptance, courts will inevitably be involved in resolving challenges to the new arrangements. We anticipate that courts will be generally favorable toward consumer-directed care, but the new legal doctrine will not uniformly favor medical professionals and insurers. The information demands inherent in consumer-directed care will present particular legal challenges to physicians and insurers. Even as courts provide flexibility to reflect the new market realities, they will closely monitor how consumer-directed care is implemented.

Counterfactual attack on counterfactual quantum key distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sheng; Wnang, Jian; Tang, Chao Jing

2012-05-01

It is interesting that counterfactual quantum cryptography protocols allow two remotely separated parties to share a secret key without transmitting any signal particles. Generally, these protocols, expected to provide security advantages, base their security on a translated no-cloning theorem. Therefore, they potentially exhibit unconditional security in theory. In this letter, we propose a new Trojan horse attack, by which an eavesdropper Eve can gain full information about the key without being noticed, to real implementations of a counterfactual quantum cryptography system. Most importantly, the presented attack is available even if the system has negligible imperfections. Therefore, it shows that the present realization of counterfactual quantum key distribution is vulnerable.

Socially Strategic Ecological Restoration: A Game-Theoretic Analysis Shortened: Socially Strategic Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buckley, Mark; Haddad, Brent M.

2006-07-01

Major transitions in a multiple-use or mosaic landscape often lead to frictions among new and existing users. In this article, we consider the problem of ecological restoration within a mosaic landscape in which restoration activities elicit feedbacks from individuals and groups that are harmed by restoration outcomes. Using game theory, we identify three potential outcomes ranked by the extent of restoration of ecosystem services and processes: nonstrategic, noncooperative strategic equilibrium, and cooperative bargaining solution. We identify conditions under which additional restoration can decrease the overall flow of ecosystem services and processes. A “strategic restorationist” will cease new restoration activities when the net effect of defensive response moves by farmers offsets gains. Imperfect information regarding expected payoffs to farmers can lead to inefficient overshooting or undershooting the optimal scale, geographical positioning, and form of restoration. Gains to all parties from cooperation might exist. As a case study and to aid model design, we consider restoration activities on California’s upper Sacramento River.

Planning multiple movements within a fixed time limit: The cost of constrained time allocation in a visuo-motor task

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hang; Wu, Shih-Wei; Maloney, Laurence T.

2010-01-01

S.-W. Wu, M. F. Dal Martello, and L. T. Maloney (2009) evaluated subjects' performance in a visuo-motor task where subjects were asked to hit two targets in sequence within a fixed time limit. Hitting targets earned rewards and Wu et al. varied rewards associated with targets. They found that subjects failed to maximize expected gain; they failed to invest more time in the movement to the more valuable target. What could explain this lack of response to reward? We first considered the possibility that subjects require training in allocating time between two movements. In Experiment 1, we found that, after extensive training, subjects still failed: They did not vary time allocation with changes in payoff. However, their actual gains equaled or exceeded the expected gain of an ideal time allocator, indicating that constraining time itself has a cost for motor accuracy. In a second experiment, we found that movements made under externally imposed time limits were less accurate than movements made with the same timing freely selected by the mover. Constrained time allocation cost about 17% in expected gain. These results suggest that there is no single speed–accuracy tradeoff for movement in our task and that subjects pursued different motor strategies with distinct speed–accuracy tradeoffs in different conditions. PMID:20884550

Associations of Linear Growth and Relative Weight Gain in Early Life with Human Capital at 30 Years of Age.

PubMed

Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Victora, Cesar G; de Mola, Christian Loret; Quevedo, Luciana; Pinheiro, Ricardo Tavares; Gigante, Denise P; Motta, Janaina Vieira Dos Santos; Barros, Fernando C

2017-03-01

To assess the associations of birthweight, nutritional status and growth in childhood with IQ, years of schooling, and monthly income at 30 years of age. In 1982, the 5 maternity hospitals in Pelotas, Brazil, were visited daily and 5914 live births were identified. At 30 years of age, 3701 subjects were interviewed. IQ, years of schooling, and income were measured. On average, their IQ was 98 points, they had 11.4 years of schooling, and the mean income was 1593 reais. After controlling for several confounders, birthweight and attained weight and length/height for age at 2 and 4 years of age were associated positively with IQ, years of years of schooling, and income, except for the association between length at 2 years of age and income. Conditional growth analyses were used to disentangle linear growth from relative weight gain. Conditional length at 2 years of age ≥1 SD score above the expected value, compared with ≥1 SD below the expected, was associated with an increase in IQ (4.28 points; 95% CI, 2.66-5.90), years of schooling (1.58 years; 95% CI, 1.08-2.08), and monthly income (303 Brazilian reais; 95% CI, 44-563). Relative weight gain, above what would be expected from linear growth, was not associated with the outcomes. In a middle-income setting, promotion of linear growth in the first 1000 days of life is likely to increase adult IQ, years of schooling, and income. Weight gain in excess of what is expected from linear growth does not seem to improve human capital. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating QALY gains in applied studies: a review of cost-utility analyses published in 2010.

PubMed

Wisløff, Torbjørn; Hagen, Gunhild; Hamidi, Vida; Movik, Espen; Klemp, Marianne; Olsen, Jan Abel

2014-04-01

Reimbursement agencies in several countries now require health outcomes to be measured in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), leading to an immense increase in publications reporting QALY gains. However, there is a growing concern that the various 'multi-attribute utility' (MAU) instruments designed to measure the Q in the QALY yield disparate values, implying that results from different instruments are incommensurable. By reviewing cost-utility analyses published in 2010, we aim to contribute to improved knowledge on how QALYs are currently calculated in applied analyses; how transparently QALY measurement is presented; and how large the expected incremental QALY gains are. We searched Embase, MEDLINE and NHS EED for all cost-utility analyses published in 2010. All analyses that had estimated QALYs gained from health interventions were included. Of the 370 studies included in this review, 48% were pharmacoeconomic evaluations. Active comparators were used in 71% of studies. The median incremental QALY gain was 0.06, which translates to 3 weeks in best imaginable health. The EQ-5D-3L is the dominant instrument used. However, reporting of how QALY gains are estimated is generally inadequate. In 55% of the studies there was no reference to which MAU instrument or direct valuation method QALY data came from. The methods used for estimating expected QALY gains are not transparently reported in published papers. Given the wide variation in utility scores that different methodologies may assign to an identical health state, it is important for journal editors to require a more transparent way of reporting the estimation of incremental QALY gains.

The Smoking Abstinence Questionnaire: Measurement of smokers’ abstinence-related expectancies

PubMed Central

Hendricks, Peter S.; Wood, Sabrina B.; Baker, Majel R.; Delucchi, Kevin L.; Hall, Sharon M.

2011-01-01

AIM To develop and validate a measure of smokers’ expectancies for the abstinence process upon quitting smoking: the Smoking Abstinence Questionnaire (SAQ). DESIGN Principal component analysis and other psychometric analyses of self-report data. SETTING San Francisco, California. PARTICIPANTS 507 adult smokers of at least 10 cigarettes per day diverse in gender, sexual orientation, and ethnoracial status. MEASUREMENTS The primary measure was a draft version of the SAQ. Additional measures assessed a variety of other smoking-related constructs. FINDINGS Principal component analyses revealed 10 factors of the SAQ: Withdrawal, Social Improvement/Nonsmoker Identity, Adverse Outcomes, Treatment Effectiveness, Common Reasons, Barriers to Treatment, Social Support, Optimistic Outcomes, Coffee Use, and Weight Gain. The SAQ factors demonstrated internal consistencies ranging from .62 to .85 and were associated with tobacco dependence, motivation to quit, abstinence self-efficacy, withdrawal symptoms, dietary restraint, shape and weight concern, and tobacco use expectancies. The SAQ predicted smoking-related constructs above and beyond tobacco use expectancies, suggesting that abstinence-related expectancies and tobacco use expectancies are distinct from one another. CONCLUSIONS A newly developed questionnaire, the SAQ, appears to reliably capture smokers’ expectancies for abstinence (Withdrawal, Social Improvement/Nonsmoker Identity, Adverse Outcomes, Common Reasons, Optimistic Outcomes, Coffee Use, and Weight Gain) and expectancies related to the success of a quit attempt (Treatment Effectiveness, Barriers to Treatment, and Social Support). It remains to be seen how far any of these expectancies predict attempts to quit, withdrawal, treatment utilization and response, and quitting success above and beyond existing measures. PMID:21205053

Weight-gain misperceptions and the third-person effect in Black and White college-bound females: potential implications for healthy weight management.

PubMed

Webb, Jennifer B; Butler-Ajibade, Phoebe; Robinson, Seronda A; Lee, Shanique J

2013-08-01

Elements of social norm theory and communication theory on the third-person effect may prove useful in efforts to prevent excessive weight gain among emerging adults entering college. The present study explored the associations of race/ethnicity and BMI status with these socio-cognitive factors that may affect first-year weight regulation in a sample of Black (N = 247) and White (N = 94) college-bound females. Participants completed an online survey assessing first-year weight-gain perceived norms along with weight-change expectations and concerns. Results provided evidence of the persistence of the myth of the "Freshman 15", belief in the typicality of gaining weight during the first year of college, and significant concern about first-year weight gain. Initial findings further revealed a robust third-person effect whereby despite nearly 90% of the sample endorsing that first-year weight gain was common, only 12% expected they would experience weight gain. Main effects of race/ethnicity, BMI status, and their interaction further uncovered distinct patterns of findings. Preliminary results highlight the need for college health officials at both predominantly White as well as minority-serving institutions to adequately address the significant concern over first-year weight gain in conjunction with the desire to lose weight expressed by an appreciable number of incoming college females. Findings also advocate the utility of evaluating social norm theory and the third-person perceptual bias in the context of first-year weight gain to potentially enhance the design and effectiveness of healthy weight management initiatives among ethnically-diverse young women entering college. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Do Education Students Learn Physics?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mistades, Voltaire Mallari

2011-01-01

Research in physics education has identified students' attitudes and beliefs that contribute to higher gains in learning. The study investigated the extent of change in education majors' attitudes, beliefs and cognitive expectations after going through an introductory physics course. Using the MPEX (Maryland Physics Expectations) Survey and the…

Finding Useful Questions: On Bayesian Diagnosticity, Probability, Impact, and Information Gain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Jonathan D.

2005-01-01

Several norms for how people should assess a question's usefulness have been proposed, notably Bayesian diagnosticity, information gain (mutual information), Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact (absolute change). Several probabilistic models of previous experiments on categorization, covariation assessment,…

In A Survey, Marked Inconsistency In How Oncologists Judged Value Of High-Cost Cancer Drugs In Relation To Gains In Survival

PubMed Central

Ubel, Peter A.; Berry, Scott R.; Nadler, Eric; Bell, Chaim M.; Kozminski, Michael A.; Palmer, Jennifer A.; Evans, William K.; Strevel, Elizabeth L.; Neumann, Peter J.

2013-01-01

Amid calls for physicians to become better stewards of the nation’s health care resources, it is important to gain insight into how physicians think about the cost-effectiveness of new treatments. Expensive new cancer treatments that can extend life raise questions about whether physicians are prepared to make “value for money” tradeoffs when treating patients. We asked oncologists in the United States and Canada how much benefit, in additional months of life expectancy, a new drug would need to provide to justify its cost and warrant its use in an individual patient. The majority of oncologists agreed that a new cancer treatment that might add a year to a patient’s life would be worthwhile if the cost was less than $100,000. But when given a hypothetical case of an individual patient to review, the oncologists also endorsed a hypothetical drug whose cost might be as high as $250,000 per life-year gained. The results show that oncologists are not consistent in deciding how many months an expensive new therapy should extend a person’s life before the cost of therapy is justified. Moreover, the benefit that oncologists demand from new treatments in terms of length of survival does not necessarily increase according to the price of the treatment. The findings suggest that policy makers should find ways to improve how physicians are educated on the use of cost-effectiveness information and to influence physician decision making through clinical guidelines that incorporate cost-effectiveness information. PMID:22492887

No pain, no gain: pain behaviour in the armed forces.

PubMed

Harper, Phil

Pain is a unique phenomenon that is difficult to express and is influenced by many different factors, including cultural expectations. A dichotomy exists within the British Armed Forces between pain being seen as necessary--the "no pain, no gain" view--and the opposite image of stoical service personnel who suppress their emotions--the "roughie-toughie" image. This dichotomy was explored through an ethnographic study of pain behaviour experienced during a training course. Pain behaviour was found to be consistent with cultural expectations and this supported the "no pain, no gain" perspective. Physical and psychological pain were expressed differently, reinforcing the western, scientific mind-body dichotomy. In addition, personnel frequently tried to suppress their pain and this supported the "roughie-toughie" philosophy. Thus, pain expression varies according to the context in which it occurs. Nurses need to be aware of this to ensure they interpret and manage their patients' pain appropriately.

The Gains from Vertical Scaling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briggs, Derek C.; Domingue, Ben

2013-01-01

It is often assumed that a vertical scale is necessary when value-added models depend upon the gain scores of students across two or more points in time. This article examines the conditions under which the scale transformations associated with the vertical scaling process would be expected to have a significant impact on normative interpretations…

Analysis of underlying and multiple-cause mortality data: the life table methods.

PubMed

Moussa, M A

1987-02-01

The stochastic compartment model concepts are employed to analyse and construct complete and abbreviated total mortality life tables, multiple-decrement life tables for a disease, under the underlying and pattern-of-failure definitions of mortality risk, cause-elimination life tables, cause-elimination effects on saved population through the gain in life expectancy as a consequence of eliminating the mortality risk, cause-delay life tables designed to translate the clinically observed increase in survival time as the population gain in life expectancy that would occur if a treatment protocol was made available to the general population and life tables for disease dependency in multiple-cause data.

Evaluation of an advanced physical diagnosis course using consumer preferences methods: the nominal group technique.

PubMed

Coker, Joshua; Castiglioni, Analia; Kraemer, Ryan R; Massie, F Stanford; Morris, Jason L; Rodriguez, Martin; Russell, Stephen W; Shaneyfelt, Terrance; Willett, Lisa L; Estrada, Carlos A

2014-03-01

Current evaluation tools of medical school courses are limited by the scope of questions asked and may not fully engage the student to think on areas to improve. The authors sought to explore whether a technique to study consumer preferences would elicit specific and prioritized information for course evaluation from medical students. Using the nominal group technique (4 sessions), 12 senior medical students prioritized and weighed expectations and topics learned in a 100-hour advanced physical diagnosis course (4-week course; February 2012). Students weighted their top 3 responses (top = 3, middle = 2 and bottom = 1). Before the course, 12 students identified 23 topics they expected to learn; the top 3 were review sensitivity/specificity and high-yield techniques (percentage of total weight, 18.5%), improving diagnosis (13.8%) and reinforce usual and less well-known techniques (13.8%). After the course, students generated 22 topics learned; the top 3 were practice and reinforce advanced maneuvers (25.4%), gaining confidence (22.5%) and learn the evidence (16.9%). The authors observed no differences in the priority of responses before and after the course (P = 0.07). In a physical diagnosis course, medical students elicited specific and prioritized information using the nominal group technique. The course met student expectations regarding education of the evidence-based physical examination, building skills and confidence on the proper techniques and maneuvers and experiential learning. The novel use for curriculum evaluation may be used to evaluate other courses-especially comprehensive and multicomponent courses.

The gains in life expectancy by ambient PM2.5 pollution reductions in localities in Nigeria.

PubMed

Etchie, Tunde O; Etchie, Ayotunde T; Adewuyi, Gregory O; Pillarisetti, Ajay; Sivanesan, Saravanadevi; Krishnamurthi, Kannan; Arora, Narendra K

2018-05-01

Global burden of disease estimates reveal that people in Nigeria are living shorter lifespan than the regional or global average life expectancy. Ambient air pollution is a top risk factor responsible for the reduced longevity. But, the magnitude of the loss or the gains in longevity accruing from the pollution reductions, which are capable of driving mitigation interventions in Nigeria, remain unknown. Thus, we estimate the loss, and the gains in longevity resulting from ambient PM 2.5 pollution reductions at the local sub-national level using life table approach. Surface average PM 2.5 concentration datasets covering Nigeria with spatial resolution of ∼1 km were obtained from the global gridded concentration fields, and combined with ∼1 km gridded population of the world (GPWv4), and global administrative unit layers (GAUL) for territorial boundaries classification. We estimate the loss or gains in longevity using population-weighted average pollution level and baseline mortality data for cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer in adults ≥25 years and for respiratory infection in children under 5. As at 2015, there are six "highly polluted", thirty "polluted" and one "moderately polluted" States in Nigeria. People residing in these States lose ∼3.8-4.0, 3.0-3.6 and 2.7 years of life expectancy, respectively, due to the pollution exposure. But, assuming interventions achieve global air quality guideline of 10 μg/m 3 , longevity would increase by 2.6-2.9, 1.9-2.5 and 1.6 years for people in the State-categories, respectively. The longevity gains are indeed high, but to achieve them, mitigation interventions should target emission sources having the highest population exposures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

US Trends in Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy From 1987 to 2008: Combining National Surveys to More Broadly Track the Health of the Nation

PubMed Central

Cutler, David M.; Rosen, Allison B.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We used data from multiple national health surveys to systematically track the health of the US adult population. Methods. We estimated trends in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) from 1987 to 2008 by using national mortality data combined with data on symptoms and impairments from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (1987), National Health Interview Survey (1987, 1994–1995, 1996), Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (1992, 1996, 2000–2008), National Nursing Home Survey (1985, 1995, and 1999), and Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (1992, 1994–2008). We decomposed QALE into changes in life expectancy, impairments, symptoms, and smoking and body mass index. Results. Years of QALE increased overall and for all demographic groups—men, women, Whites, and Blacks—despite being slowed by increases in obesity and a rising prevalence of some symptoms and impairments. Overall QALE gains were large: 2.4 years at age 25 years and 1.7 years at age 65 years. Conclusions. Understanding and consistently tracking the drivers of QALE change is central to informed policymaking. Harmonizing data from multiple national surveys is an important step in building this infrastructure. PMID:24028235

Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

2008-01-01

This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

6 Essential Questions for Problem Solving

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kress, Nancy Emerson

2017-01-01

One of the primary expectations that the author has for her students is for them to develop greater independence when solving complex and unique mathematical problems. The story of how the author supports her students as they gain confidence and independence with complex and unique problem-solving tasks, while honoring their expectations with…

Diverging Life Expectancies and Voting Patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Objectives. To assess whether voting patterns in the 2016 US presidential election were correlated with long-run trends in county life expectancy. Methods. I examined county-level voting data from the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections and assessed Donald Trump’s share of the 2016 vote, change in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016, and changes in absolute numbers of Democratic and Republican votes. County-level estimates of life expectancy at birth were obtained for 1980 and 2014 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Results. Changes in county life expectancy from 1980 to 2014 were strongly negatively associated with Trump’s vote share, with less support for Trump in counties experiencing greater survival gains. Counties in which life expectancy stagnated or declined saw a 10-percentage-point increase in the Republican vote share between 2008 and 2016. Conclusions. Residents of counties left out from broader life expectancy gains abandoned the Democratic Party in the 2016 presidential election. Since coming to power, the Trump administration has proposed cuts to health insurance for the poor, social programs, health research, and environmental and worker protections, which are key determinants of population health. Health gaps likely will continue to widen without significant public investment in population health. PMID:28817322

Diverter Decision Aiding for In-Flight Diversions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudolph, Frederick M.; Homoki, David A.; Sexton, George A.

1990-01-01

It was determined that artificial intelligence technology can provide pilots with the help they need in making the complex decisions concerning en route changes in a flight plan. A diverter system should have the capability to take all of the available information and produce a recommendation to the pilot. Phase three illustrated that using Joshua to develop rules for an expert system and a Statice database provided additional flexibility by permitting the development of dynamic weighting of diversion relevant parameters. This increases the fidelity of the AI functions cited as useful in aiding the pilot to perform situational assessment, navigation rerouting, flight planning/replanning, and maneuver execution. Additionally, a prototype pilot-vehicle interface (PVI) was designed providing for the integration of both text and graphical based information. Advanced technologies were applied to PVI design, resulting in a hierarchical menu based architecture to increase the efficiency of information transfer while reducing expected workload. Additional efficiency was gained by integrating spatial and text displays into an integrated user interface.

An Information System Development Method Connecting Business Process Modeling and its Experimental Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okawa, Tsutomu; Kaminishi, Tsukasa; Kojima, Yoshiyuki; Hirabayashi, Syuichi; Koizumi, Hisao

Business process modeling (BPM) is gaining attention as a measure of analysis and improvement of the business process. BPM analyses the current business process as an AS-IS model and solves problems to improve the current business and moreover it aims to create a business process, which produces values, as a TO-BE model. However, researches of techniques that connect the business process improvement acquired by BPM to the implementation of the information system seamlessly are rarely reported. If the business model obtained by BPM is converted into UML, and the implementation can be carried out by the technique of UML, we can expect the improvement in efficiency of information system implementation. In this paper, we describe a method of the system development, which converts the process model obtained by BPM into UML and the method is evaluated by modeling a prototype of a parts procurement system. In the evaluation, comparison with the case where the system is implemented by the conventional UML technique without going via BPM is performed.

Role of formats in the life cycle of data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sawyer, Don

1993-01-01

This paper's perspective is based on the author's experience generating, analyzing, archiving, and distributing data obtained from satellites, and on the experience gained in data modeling and the development of standards for data understanding under the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS). Data formats are used to represent all information in digital form, and thus play a major role in all interchanges and access to this information. The need to more efficiently manage and process rapidly growing quantities of data, and to preserve the information contained therein, continue to drive a great interest in data formats. The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of formats as they support the use of data within a space agency. The life-cycle identified is only one of many variations that would be recognized by those familiar with the 'space business', however it is expected that most of the issues raised will be pertinent to other 'space business' life cycles and to other 'non-space' disciplines as well.

The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2006-04-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (a) the Allais paradox, (b) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (c) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (e.g., lottery tickets), (d) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (e.g., buying insurance), (e) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (f) the certainty effect, (g) the possibility effect, and (h) intransitivities. The authors test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared with previously proposed heuristics and 3 modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Integrated learning in dentistry: baseline data and first evaluation at the Dental School of Basel.

PubMed

Neuhaus, K W; Schegg, R; Krastl, G; Amato, M; Weiger, R; Walter, C

2008-08-01

Integrated learning modules were introduced and baseline information was collected, in order to identify the expectations regarding e-learning. Furthermore, first formative evaluation of fourth-year dental students was conducted and the experience gained with summative online assessment was reported. Questionnaires designed by Infratest dimap (Berlin, Germany) were distributed to undergraduate students (n = 72) of the School of Dentistry. The fourth-year dental students went through a preliminary evaluation process. An online test was evaluated and compared with a traditional examination. Sixty-three questionnaires were returned. Sixty-five per cent of the students were already familiar with e-learning. All but one student owned at least one personal computer or laptop. Ninety-one per cent of the students expected positive effects from the integration of online modules. Enhanced flexibility regarding time and location as well as comfortable access to learning materials were mentioned most frequently. Ninety per cent of the students expected to achieve better results by finding it easier to understand learning materials produced with multimedia tools. Sixty per cent of the students feared technical complications when using an online platform. The online test was successfully performed. A formative evaluation process demonstrated agreement between expectations and first experiences with e-learning. Most students expect the quality of their studies to improve by implementation of e-learning. Students appreciating regularly updated learning materials particularly emphasise the importance of its visualisation. Online tests might be an option for student's self-performance rating.

Value for money: protecting endangered species on Danish heathland.

PubMed

Strange, Niels; Jacobsen, Jette B; Thorsen, Bo J; Tarp, Peter

2007-11-01

Biodiversity policies in the European Union (EU) are mainly implemented through the Birds and Habitats Directives as well as the establishment of Natura 2000, a network of protected areas throughout the EU. Considerable resources must be allocated for fulfilling the Directives and the question of optimal allocation is as important as it is difficult. In general, economic evaluations of conservation targets at most consider the costs and seldom the welfare economic benefits. In the present study, we use welfare economic benefit estimates concerning the willingness-to-pay for preserving endangered species and for the aggregate area of heathland preserved in Denmark. Similarly, we obtain estimates of the welfare economic cost of habitat restoration and maintenance. Combining these welfare economic measures with expected species coverage, we are able to estimate the potential welfare economic contribution of a conservation network. We compare three simple nonprobabilistic strategies likely to be used in day-to-day policy implementation: i) a maximum selected area strategy, ii) a hotspot selection strategy, and iii) a minimizing cost strategy, and two more advanced and informed probabilistic strategies: i) a maximum expected coverage strategy and ii) a strategy for maximum expected welfare economic gain. We show that the welfare economic performance of the strategies differ considerably. The comparison between the expected coverage and expected welfare shows that for the case considered, one may identify an optimal protection level above which additional coverage only comes at increasing welfare economic loss.

After massive weight loss: patients' expectations of body contouring surgery.

PubMed

Kitzinger, Hugo B; Abayev, Sara; Pittermann, Anna; Karle, Birgit; Bohdjalian, Arthur; Langer, Felix B; Prager, Gerhard; Frey, Manfred

2012-04-01

Massive weight loss following bariatric surgery leads to excess skin with functional and aesthetic impairments. Surplus skin can then contribute to problems with additional weight loss or gain. The aims of the current study were to evaluate the frequency of massive soft tissue development in gastric bypass patients, to determine whether males and females experience similar post-bypass body changes, and to learn about the expectations and impairments related to body contouring surgery. A questionnaire addressing information on the satisfaction of body image, quality of life, and expectation of body contouring surgery following massive weight loss was mailed to 425 patients who had undergone gastric bypass surgery between 2003 and 2009. Of these 425 individuals, 252 (59%) patients completed the survey. Ninety percent of women and 88% of men surveyed rated their appearance following massive weight loss as satisfactory, good, or very good. However, 96% of all patients developed surplus skin, which caused intertriginous dermatitis and itching. In addition, patients reported problems with physical activity (playing sports) and finding clothing that fit appropriately. Moreover, 75% of female and 68% of male patients reported desiring body contouring surgery. The most important expectation of body contouring surgery was improved appearance, followed by improved self-confidence and quality of life. Surplus skin resulting from gastric bypass surgery is a common issue that causes functional and aesthetic impairments in patients. Consequently, this increases the desire for body contouring surgery with high expectations for the aesthetic outcome as well as improved life satisfaction.

Disparities of Potential Gains in Life Expectancy Development between the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic.

PubMed

Vagašová, Tatiana; Gavurová, Beáta

2017-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine how many years a person could be expected to live if a specific cause of death was eliminated, and to compare potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) between Slovakia (SVK) and the Czech Republic (CZE). PGLEs were computed from mortality reports (1996-2013) for deaths from the main groups of chronic diseases, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular diseases (CVD), cancer (CA), diabetes mellitus (DM), and chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) for the Slovak and Czech populations in five-year age groups. Country comparative analysis was conducted by constructing rate ratios of PGLEs. In 2013, life expectancy at birth for the Slovak and Czech populations was 76.5 and 78.3 years. Overall trends of standardised mortality rates of chronic diseases roughly paralleled the PGLEs trend. During 1996-2013, SVK reported the highest PGLEs of IHD at an average of 4.54 years, compared to PGLEs of CA reaching a value of 3.61 years in CZE. The PGLEs of IHD showed the largest gap between SVK and CZE, with an average of 1.65 higher values in SVK. With the elimination of CVD as the third most influential disease in both countries, PGLEs decreased from 1.65 to 0.93 years in CZE; a negligible drop from 1.13 to 1.05 was recorded in SVK. The lowest impacts on life expectancy were recorded in DM and CRD. However, since 2005 these trends have deteriorated in CZE. In 2013, IHD had a similar impact on life expectancy in all age groups in SVK and a decreasing impact among 50-54 year olds in CZE. Similarly to SVK, people in CZE aged 45-49 could gain 0.94 years in LE after CVD elimination, which is nearly the same as at birth. The higher the life expectancy after elimination of the cause of death is, the higher the impact of the disease on life expectancy. Health prevention programs should be mainly aimed at CA mortality in CZE, while the highest burden of IHD is seen in SVK. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017.

What Is "Social Capital" and How Can Vocational Education and Training Help Develop It? Conference Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Priest, Suellen

2009-01-01

Recent research in the vocational education and training (VET) sector shows that students are gaining a range of benefits from their studies, beyond expected course outcomes. Students are developing new networks, and gaining confidence and self esteem through the respect received from their teachers and classmates. For some students, these…

Information sensitivity functions to assess parameter information gain and identifiability of dynamical systems.

PubMed

Pant, Sanjay

2018-05-01

A new class of functions, called the 'information sensitivity functions' (ISFs), which quantify the information gain about the parameters through the measurements/observables of a dynamical system are presented. These functions can be easily computed through classical sensitivity functions alone and are based on Bayesian and information-theoretic approaches. While marginal information gain is quantified by decrease in differential entropy, correlations between arbitrary sets of parameters are assessed through mutual information. For individual parameters, these information gains are also presented as marginal posterior variances, and, to assess the effect of correlations, as conditional variances when other parameters are given. The easy to interpret ISFs can be used to (a) identify time intervals or regions in dynamical system behaviour where information about the parameters is concentrated; (b) assess the effect of measurement noise on the information gain for the parameters; (c) assess whether sufficient information in an experimental protocol (input, measurements and their frequency) is available to identify the parameters; (d) assess correlation in the posterior distribution of the parameters to identify the sets of parameters that are likely to be indistinguishable; and (e) assess identifiability problems for particular sets of parameters. © 2018 The Authors.

Materials inspired by mathematics

PubMed Central

Kotani, Motoko; Ikeda, Susumu

2016-01-01

Abstract Our world is transforming into an interacting system of the physical world and the digital world. What will be the materials science in the new era? With the rising expectations of the rapid development of computers, information science and mathematical science including statistics and probability theory, ‘data-driven materials design’ has become a common term. There is knowledge and experience gained in the physical world in the form of know-how and recipes for the creation of material. An important key is how we establish vocabulary and grammar to translate them into the language of the digital world. In this article, we outline how materials science develops when it encounters mathematics, showing some emerging directions. PMID:27877877

Challenges of Moving IPG into Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schulbach, Cathy

2004-01-01

Over the past 5-6 years, NASA has been developing the Information Power Grid and has a persistent testbed currently based on GT2.4.2. This presentation will begin with an overview of IPG status and services, discuss key milestones in IPG development, and present early as well as expected applications. The presentation will discuss some of the issues encountered in developing a grid including the tension between providing centralized and distributed computing. These issues also affect how the grid is moved into full production. Finally, the presentation will provide current plans for moving IPG into full production, including gaining broad user input, developing acceptance criteria from the production operations group, planning upgrades, and training users.

A Palliative Approach to Dialysis Care: A Patient-Centered Transition to the End of Life

PubMed Central

Moss, Alvin H.; Cohen, Lewis M.; Fischer, Michael J.; Germain, Michael J.; Jassal, S. Vanita; Perl, Jeffrey; Weiner, Daniel E.; Mehrotra, Rajnish

2014-01-01

As the importance of providing patient-centered palliative care for patients with advanced illnesses gains attention, standard dialysis delivery may be inconsistent with the goals of care for many patients with ESRD. Many dialysis patients with life expectancy of <1 year may desire a palliative approach to dialysis care, which focuses on aligning patient treatment with patients’ informed preferences. This commentary elucidates what comprises a palliative approach to dialysis care and describes its potential and appropriate use. It also reviews the barriers to integrating such an approach into the current clinical paradigm of care and existing infrastructure and outlines system-level changes needed to accommodate such an approach. PMID:25104274

["Mirror, mirror on the wall", the issue of digital technology in adolescent mental healthcare].

PubMed

Pommereau, Xavier

The digital revolution is turning lifestyles and mentalities upside down. The intuitiveness, immediacy and connectivity which characterise new information and communication technologies appeal to teenagers who find in them ways to gain recognition from their peers and to exchange with each other, without having to yield to adults. However, they expect mental health professionals to talk to them, to be engaged in their discussions and to agree to use connected tools as platforms for exchange. A wide variety of such methods can form part of the therapeutic relationship, from smartphones to chat rooms, from teleconsultations to 'cybertherapies', and from video games to serious games. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Inhibitions and implications associated with celebrity participation in health-related social marketing: an exploratory research focused on HIV prevention in Portugal.

PubMed

Casais, Beatriz; Proença, João F

2012-01-01

This article discusses motivations and inhibitions among celebrities to participate in health-related social marketing. The research identifies the implications that this involvement may have upon their lives. Results from in-depth interviews with 27 Portuguese celebrities show that they expect a fee for endorsements of commercial and government social marketing, despite the positive image they may gain from endorsing public health. The results demonstrate an absence of celebrity prejudice against HIV because of its serious nature and the social stigma attached to AIDS. This research suggests there is a positive bias and presents helpful information for negotiations between institutions and celebrities.

Discriminative segmentation of microscopic cellular images.

PubMed

Cheng, Li; Ye, Ning; Yu, Weimiao; Cheah, Andre

2011-01-01

Microscopic cellular images segmentation has become an important routine procedure in modern biological research, due to the rapid advancement of fluorescence probes and robotic microscopes in recent years. In this paper we advocate a discriminative learning approach for cellular image segmentation. In particular, three new features are proposed to capture the appearance, shape and context information, respectively. Experiments are conducted on three different cellular image datasets. Despite the significant disparity among these datasets, the proposed approach is demonstrated to perform reasonably well. As expected, for a particular dataset, some features turn out to be more suitable than others. Interestingly, we observe that a further gain can often be obtained on top of using the "good" features, by also retaining those features that perform poorly. This might be due to the complementary nature of these features, as well as the capacity of our approach to better integrate and exploit different sources of information.

Physically Based Virtual Surgery Planning and Simulation Tools for Personal Health Care Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogan, Firat; Atilgan, Yasemin

The virtual surgery planning and simulation tools have gained a great deal of importance in the last decade in a consequence of increasing capacities at the information technology level. The modern hardware architectures, large scale database systems, grid based computer networks, agile development processes, better 3D visualization and all the other strong aspects of the information technology brings necessary instruments into almost every desk. The last decade’s special software and sophisticated super computer environments are now serving to individual needs inside “tiny smart boxes” for reasonable prices. However, resistance to learning new computerized environments, insufficient training and all the other old habits prevents effective utilization of IT resources by the specialists of the health sector. In this paper, all the aspects of the former and current developments in surgery planning and simulation related tools are presented, future directions and expectations are investigated for better electronic health care systems.

Understanding the impact of socioeconomic differences in breast cancer survival in England and Wales: avoidable deaths and potential gain in expectation of life.

PubMed

Rutherford, M J; Andersson, T M-L; Møller, H; Lambert, P C

2015-02-01

Socioeconomic differences in cancer patient survival are known to exist for women diagnosed with breast cancer. Standard metrics tend not to place great emphasis on evaluating the actual impact of these differences. We used two alternative, but related, methods of reporting the impact of socioeconomic differences for breast cancer patients in England and Wales. We calculated the average gain in life years for each patient should socioeconomic differences in relative survival be removed and show how this is related to the number of all-cause deaths that could be postponed by removing socioeconomic differences in cancer patient survival. Our results indicate that deprivation differences for women with breast cancer exist and result in women from more deprived areas losing a larger proportion of their life due to a diagnosis of cancer. We also estimate that on average 1.1 years could be gained for a 60 year old breast cancer patient in the most deprived group by improving their relative survival to match the least deprived group. However, our results also show that deprivation differences in general survival have a large impact on life expectancy; showing that over two-thirds of the gap in differential life expectancy is explained by differences in other-cause survival. Socioeconomic differences in relative survival have an impact on life expectancy for patients and result in higher early mortality for more deprived patients. However, differences in general survival across socioeconomic groups explain a larger proportion of the deprivation gap in life expectancy for breast cancer patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Advanced Technologies to Provide Decentralised and Secure Access to Medical Records: Case Studies in Oncology

PubMed Central

Quantin, Catherine; Coatrieux, Gouenou; Allaert, François André; Fassa, Maniane; Bourquard, Karima; Boire, Jean-Yves; de Vlieger, Paul; Maigne, Lydia; Breton, Vincent

2009-01-01

The main problem for health professionals and patients in accessing information is that this information is very often distributed over many medical records and locations. This problem is particularly acute in cancerology because patients may be treated for many years and undergo a variety of examinations. Recent advances in technology make it feasible to gain access to medical records anywhere and anytime, allowing the physician or the patient to gather information from an “ephemeral electronic patient record”. However, this easy access to data is accompanied by the requirement for improved security (confidentiality, traceability, integrity, ...) and this issue needs to be addressed. In this paper we propose and discuss a decentralised approach based on recent advances in information sharing and protection: Grid technologies and watermarking methodologies. The potential impact of these technologies for oncology is illustrated by the examples of two experimental cases: a cancer surveillance network and a radiotherapy treatment plan. It is expected that the proposed approach will constitute the basis of a future secure “google-like” access to medical records. PMID:19718446

The Effect of Health Beliefs, Media Perceptions, and Communicative Behaviors on Health Behavioral Intention: An Integrated Health Campaign Model on Social Media.

PubMed

Yoo, Sun-Wook; Kim, Jarim; Lee, Yeunjae

2018-01-01

Social media have recently gained attention as a potential health campaign tool. This study examines this line of expectation concerning the role social media may play in health campaigns by testing an integrated health campaign model that combines insights from research on social media-specific perceptions and communicative behaviors in order to predict health behaviors. Specifically, this study aims to (a) develop a more holistic social media campaign model for predicting health behaviors in the social media context, (b) investigate how social media channel-related perceptions affect preventive health behaviors, and (c) investigate how communicative behaviors mediate perceptions and behavioral intention. The study conducted an online survey of 498 females who followed the Purple Ribbon Twitter campaign (@pprb), a cervical cancer prevention campaign. The results indicated that information acquisition mediated perceived risk's effect on intention. Information acquisition also mediated the relationships between intention and information selection and information transmission. On the other hand, social media-related perceptions indirectly impacted behavioral intention through communicative behaviors. The findings' theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Analysis of influencing factors on public perception in contaminated site management: Simulation by structural equation modeling at four sites in China.

PubMed

Li, Xiaonuo; Chen, Weiping; Cundy, Andrew B; Chang, Andrew C; Jiao, Wentao

2018-03-15

Public perception towards contaminated site management, a not readily quantifiable latent parameter, was linked through structural equation modeling in this paper to 22 measurable/observable manifest variables associated with the extent of information dissemination and public knowledge of soil pollution, attitude towards remediation policies, and participation in risk mitigation processes. Data obtained through a survey of 412 community residents at four remediation sites in China were employed in the model validation. The outcomes showed that public perception towards contaminated site management might be explained through selected measurable parameters in five categories, namely information disclosure, knowledge of soil pollution, expectations of remediation and redevelopment outcomes, public participation, and site policy, along with their interactions. Among these, information dissemination and attitude towards management policies exhibited significant influence in promoting positive public perception. Based on these examples, responsible agencies therefore should focus on public accessibility to reliable information, and encourage public inputs into policies for contaminated site management, in order to gain public confidence during remediation and regeneration projects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Guide to the Table

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Occupational Outlook Quarterly, 2010

2010-01-01

This article presents a table that provides a snapshot of how employment is expected to change in 289 occupations. For each occupation, it shows estimated employment in 2008, the projected numeric change in employment (that is, how many jobs are expected to be gained or lost) over the 2008-18 decade, and the projected percent change in employment…

Occupational Expectations--Nature, Correlates, and Utilization in Occupational Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofstrand, Richard K.; Phipps, Lloyd J.

To gain greatest meaning and satisfaction from their work activities, persons should be able to more accurately identify and define their feelings, attitudes, and values related to the world of work. An expanded and enhanced understanding of occupational expectations on the part of career counselors would help in working with youth and adults who…

Achieving and Sustaining New Knowledge Development in High-Expectation Start-Ups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matricano, Diego

2010-01-01

In markets characterized by strong competition, new knowledge and new knowledge development are generally recognized as the key means for an enterprise to gain competitive advantage. This knowledge-based competitive advantage is critical for all commercial ventures, but is especially so for high-expectation start-ups (technology-based ventures…

United States housing, third quarter 2013

Treesearch

Delton Alderman

2017-01-01

The U.S. housing construction market’s third quarter was subdued, as all sectors moderated or declined. Once again, consensus expectations were for aggregate housing market gains, and these expectations were not realized. Overall starts, housing under construction, and completion data indicated quarterly improvement. Viewed from a recent his¬torical context, all...

'She can choose, as long as I'm happy with it': a qualitative study of expectant fathers' views of birth place.

PubMed

Bedwell, Carol; Houghton, Gillian; Richens, Yana; Lavender, Tina

2011-04-01

A programme of research was undertaken to explore which factors contributed to decisions regarding birth place. As part of this programme, the views of male partners of pregnant women were examined to gain understanding of their contribution to the decision making process, with regard to different birth settings. A qualitative interpretive approach was utilised to explore, in-depth, the views of 19 expectant fathers, in the North West of England. Semi-structured interviews were conducted, audio recorded and transcribed, following consent. Data were analysed using a thematic approach. Four main themes were identified; Silent decisions, Powers of persuasion, Trust in a medical environment and Personal vulnerability. Choice regarding place of birth is multi-dimensional. Expectant fathers are likely to contribute to their partner's decision making; their motivation can relate to their own beliefs and personal vulnerability as well the need to protect the women. The overwhelming trust in the medical environment dominates partner's views regarding birth place. The lack of discussion regarding birth place, between partners and with health professionals, reinforces the notion that hospital birth is safest, thus strengthening the normalization of birth in this environment. Midwives need to engage with expectant fathers to ensure that their contributions to decisions around birth place are fully informed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cluster-based analysis improves predictive validity of spike-triggered receptive field estimates

PubMed Central

Malone, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Spectrotemporal receptive field (STRF) characterization is a central goal of auditory physiology. STRFs are often approximated by the spike-triggered average (STA), which reflects the average stimulus preceding a spike. In many cases, the raw STA is subjected to a threshold defined by gain values expected by chance. However, such correction methods have not been universally adopted, and the consequences of specific gain-thresholding approaches have not been investigated systematically. Here, we evaluate two classes of statistical correction techniques, using the resulting STRF estimates to predict responses to a novel validation stimulus. The first, more traditional technique eliminated STRF pixels (time-frequency bins) with gain values expected by chance. This correction method yielded significant increases in prediction accuracy, including when the threshold setting was optimized for each unit. The second technique was a two-step thresholding procedure wherein clusters of contiguous pixels surviving an initial gain threshold were then subjected to a cluster mass threshold based on summed pixel values. This approach significantly improved upon even the best gain-thresholding techniques. Additional analyses suggested that allowing threshold settings to vary independently for excitatory and inhibitory subfields of the STRF resulted in only marginal additional gains, at best. In summary, augmenting reverse correlation techniques with principled statistical correction choices increased prediction accuracy by over 80% for multi-unit STRFs and by over 40% for single-unit STRFs, furthering the interpretational relevance of the recovered spectrotemporal filters for auditory systems analysis. PMID:28877194

Characterization of x-ray framing cameras for the National Ignition Facility using single photon pulse height analysis.

PubMed

Holder, J P; Benedetti, L R; Bradley, D K

2016-11-01

Single hit pulse height analysis is applied to National Ignition Facility x-ray framing cameras to quantify gain and gain variation in a single micro-channel plate-based instrument. This method allows the separation of gain from detectability in these photon-detecting devices. While pulse heights measured by standard-DC calibration methods follow the expected exponential distribution at the limit of a compound-Poisson process, gain-gated pulse heights follow a more complex distribution that may be approximated as a weighted sum of a few exponentials. We can reproduce this behavior with a simple statistical-sampling model.

[Deaths and life expectancy losses attributable to diet high in sodium in China].

PubMed

Liu, S W; Cai, Y; Zeng, X Y; Yin, P; Qi, J L; Liu, Y N; Liu, J M; Zhao, Z P; Zhang, M; Wang, L M; Wang, L J; Xue, M; Zhou, M G

2017-08-10

Objective: To quantitatively estimate the deaths and life expectancy losses attributable to diet high in sodium in China, and examine the gains and shifts under different control scenarios of sodium consumption. Methods: Based on data from the cause-of-death through the National Mortality Surveillance System, and 24 hours urinary sodium values from Global Burden of Disease study on Chinese's estimates, population attributable fractions with the framework of comparative risk assessment were used to analyze the deaths and life expectancy losses due to diet high in sodium. The same methods were followed to examine the gains and shifts under different control scenarios of sodium consumption. Results: In 2013, 1 430 (940 for men and 490 for women) thousand deaths were attributable to diet high in sodium, accounting for 15.6% (17.4% for men and 13.0% for women) of all-cause deaths in China, which causing 2.17 (2.49 for men and 1.71 for women) years of life expectancy loss. Diet with high sodium in 2013 caused 1 200, 50 and 180 thousand deaths from cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer respectively, accounting for 31.5%, 30.8% and 64.8% of those specific causes. Comparing to the baseline in 2013, if the targets of 10% decrease of sodium consumption by 2020 and 15% by 2030 for Chinese chronic disease prevention and treatment planning, and 30% decrease by 2030 for WHO non-communicable disease monitoring framework are achieved, 220, 340 and 730 thousand deaths will be averted, which may gain 0.30, 0.45 and 0.95 years of life expectancy, respectively. Conclusions: As one of the leading risk factors, diet high in sodium had caused heavy burden of disease from cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer on Chinese residents. Intervention programs on sodium-reduction are urgently needed in China and related cost-effectiveness is highly expected.

Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization

PubMed Central

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Sim, Sam K. Y.; Chee, Michael W. L.; Mullette-Gillman, O’Dhaniel A.

2015-01-01

We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble) and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices) within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning. We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61–80 years old) were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic decision-making for losses through changes in both individual preferences and the strategies individuals employ. PMID:26029092

48 CFR 9904.412-60.1 - Illustrations-CAS Pension Harmonization Rule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... by segment or aggregation of segments. The actuarial gain and loss recognition of changes between... recognition of the asset gain or loss, which is the difference between the expected income, based on the...,100,000 $14,225,000 1 Normal Cost 910,700 89,100 821,600 1 Expense Load on Normal Cost 1, 2 Note 1...

48 CFR 9904.412-60.1 - Illustrations-CAS Pension Harmonization Rule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... by segment or aggregation of segments. The actuarial gain and loss recognition of changes between... recognition of the asset gain or loss, which is the difference between the expected income, based on the...,100,000 $14,225,000 1 Normal Cost 910,700 89,100 821,600 1 Expense Load on Normal Cost 1, 2 Note 1...

48 CFR 9904.412-60.1 - Illustrations-CAS Pension Harmonization Rule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... by segment or aggregation of segments. The actuarial gain and loss recognition of changes between... recognition of the asset gain or loss, which is the difference between the expected income, based on the...,100,000 $14,225,000 1 Normal Cost 910,700 89,100 821,600 1 Expense Load on Normal Cost 1, 2 Note 1...

Sleep-Dependent Consolidation of Procedural Motor Memories in Children and Adults: The Pre-Sleep Level of Performance Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilhelm, Ines; Metzkow-Meszaros, Maila; Knapp, Susanne; Born, Jan

2012-01-01

In striking contrast to adults, in children sleep following training a motor task did not induce the expected (offline) gain in motor skill performance in previous studies. Children normally perform at distinctly lower levels than adults. Moreover, evidence in adults suggests that sleep dependent offline gains in skill essentially depend on the…

The economic value of innovative treatments over the product life cycle: the case of targeted trastuzumab therapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Garrison, Louis P; Veenstra, David L

2009-01-01

Pharmacoeconomic analyses typically project the expected cost-effectiveness of a new product for a specific indication. This analysis develops a dynamic life-cycle model to conduct a multi-indication evaluation using the case of trastuzumab licensed in the United States for both early-stage and metastatic (or late-stage) human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer therapy (early breast cancer [EBC]; metastatic breast cancer [MBC]), approved in 2006 and 1998, respectively. This dynamic model combined information on expected incremental cost-utility ratios for specific indications with an epidemiologically based projection of utilization by indication over the product life cycle-from 1998 to 2016. Net economic value was estimated as the cumulative quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained over the life cycle multiplied by a societal valuation of health gains ($/QALY) minus cumulative net direct treatment costs. Sensitivity analyses were performed under a range of assumptions. We projected that the annual number of EBC patients receiving trastuzumab will be more than three times that of MBC by 2016, in part because adjuvant treatment reduces the future incidence of MBC. Over this life cycle, the estimated overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $35,590/QALY with a total of 432,547 discounted QALYs gained. Under sensitivity analyses, the overall ICER varied from $21,000 to $53,000/QALY, and the projected net economic value resulting from trastuzumab treatment ranged from $6.2 billion to $49.5 billion. Average ICERs for multi-indication compounds can increase or decrease over the product life cycle. In this example, the projected overall life-cycle ICER for trastuzumab was less than one half of that in the initial indication. This dynamic perspective-versus the usual static one-highlights the interdependence of drug development decisions and investment incentives, raising important reimbursement policy issues.

Injured workers’ perception of loss and gain in the return to work process

PubMed Central

Lai, Hon Sun; Szeto, Grace PY; Chan, Chetwyn CH

2017-01-01

When a worker is injured at work, he has to face a tough decision-making process about when and how to return to work (RTW). This study tests how the prospect theory can be applied to influence the injured workers’ perceptions about this important choice. One hundred forty-one injured workers were presented with wage- and pain-related information in four different message framing (negatively or positively) and precision (smaller or larger number) conditions. After exposure to the specific combination of this wage and pain information, the participants were asked to express intentions to RTW in terms of perceived chance, confidence, and anticipated sick leave duration. When asked to predict their RTW outcome, 101 participants (72.3%) responded favorably, whereas only 40 (27.7%) indicated an expectation for staying on sick leave. The present results did not show significant differences in the participants’ responses to the positively and negatively framed information about wage and pain. However, it was noted that the control group that was presented with positive framing for both “wage” and “pain” information showed higher scores in expectation and confidence for RTW, whereas the Ambivalent Group that had both negative messages showed lower scores. Seventy-nine participants who had ≥60% perceived improvement in condition were selected for further analysis, and those who were presented with “wage loss” information rated significantly higher perceived chance of RTW than those in the “pain gain” group. More in-depth investigation is warranted on this topic, with a larger sample of injured workers to investigate the effects of message framing on the decision-making process about RTW. PMID:28223852

The future of death in America

PubMed Central

King, Gary; Soneji, Samir

2013-01-01

Population mortality forecasts are widely used for allocating public health expenditures, setting research priorities, and evaluating the viability of public and private pensions, and health care financing systems. In part because existing methods forecast less accurately when based on more information, most forecasts are still based on simple linear extrapolations that ignore known biological risk factors and other prior information. We adapt a Bayesian hierarchical forecasting model capable of including more known health and demographic information than has previously been possible. This leads to the first age- and sex-specific forecasts of American mortality that simultaneously incorporate, in a formal statistical model, the effects of the recent rapid increase in obesity, the steady decline in tobacco consumption, and the well known patterns of smooth mortality age profiles and time trends. Formally including new information in forecasts can matter a great deal. For example, we estimate an increase in male life expectancy at birth from 76.2 years in 2010 to 79.9 years in 2030, which is 1.8 years greater than the U.S. Social Security Administration projection and 1.5 years more than U.S. Census projection. For females, we estimate more modest gains in life expectancy at birth over the next twenty years from 80.5 years to 81.9 years, which is virtually identical to the Social Security Administration projection and 2.0 years less than U.S. Census projections. We show that these patterns are also likely to greatly affect the aging American population structure. We offer an easy-to-use approach so that researchers can include other sources of information and potentially improve on our forecasts too. PMID:24696636

Trabectedin in the treatment of metastatic soft tissue sarcoma: cost-effectiveness, cost-utility and value of information

PubMed Central

Soini, E. J. O.; García San Andrés, B.; Joensuu, T.

2011-01-01

Background: To assess the cost-effectiveness of trabectedin compared with end-stage treatment (EST) after failure with anthracycline and/or ifosfamide in metastatic soft tissue sarcoma (mSTS). Design: Analysis was carried out using a probabilistic Markov model with trabectedin → EST and EST arms, three health states (stable disease, progressive disease and death) and a lifetime perspective (3% annual discount rate). Finnish resources (drugs, mSTS, adverse events and travelling) and costs (year 2008) were used. Efficacy was based on an indirect comparison of the STS-201 and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials. QLQ-C30 scale scores were mapped to 15D, Short Form 6D and EuroQol 5D utilities. The outcome measures were the cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, incremental cost per life year gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). Results: Trabectedin → EST was associated with 14.0 (95% confidence interval 9.1–19.2) months longer survival, €36 778 higher costs (€32 816 using hospital price for trabectedin) and €31 590 (€28 192) incremental cost per LYG with an EVPI of €3008 (€3188) compared with EST. With a threshold of €50 000 per LYG, trabectedin → EST had 98.5% (98.2%) probability of being cost-effective. The incremental cost per QALY gained with trabectedin → EST was €42 633–47 735 (€37 992–42 819) compared with EST. The results were relatively insensitive to changes. Conclusion: Trabectedin is a potentially cost-effective treatment of mSTS patients. PMID:20627875

Computational design of thermostabilizing point mutations for G protein-coupled receptors

PubMed Central

Popov, Petr; Peng, Yao; Shen, Ling; Stevens, Raymond C; Cherezov, Vadim; Liu, Zhi-Jie

2018-01-01

Engineering of GPCR constructs with improved thermostability is a key for successful structural and biochemical studies of this transmembrane protein family, targeted by 40% of all therapeutic drugs. Here we introduce a comprehensive computational approach to effective prediction of stabilizing mutations in GPCRs, named CompoMug, which employs sequence-based analysis, structural information, and a derived machine learning predictor. Tested experimentally on the serotonin 5-HT2C receptor target, CompoMug predictions resulted in 10 new stabilizing mutations, with an apparent thermostability gain ~8.8°C for the best single mutation and ~13°C for a triple mutant. Binding of antagonists confers further stabilization for the triple mutant receptor, with total gains of ~21°C as compared to wild type apo 5-HT2C. The predicted mutations enabled crystallization and structure determination for the 5-HT2C receptor complexes in inactive and active-like states. While CompoMug already shows high 25% hit rate and utility in GPCR structural studies, further improvements are expected with accumulation of structural and mutation data. PMID:29927385

Space coding for sensorimotor transformations can emerge through unsupervised learning.

PubMed

De Filippo De Grazia, Michele; Cutini, Simone; Lisi, Matteo; Zorzi, Marco

2012-08-01

The posterior parietal cortex (PPC) is fundamental for sensorimotor transformations because it combines multiple sensory inputs and posture signals into different spatial reference frames that drive motor programming. Here, we present a computational model mimicking the sensorimotor transformations occurring in the PPC. A recurrent neural network with one layer of hidden neurons (restricted Boltzmann machine) learned a stochastic generative model of the sensory data without supervision. After the unsupervised learning phase, the activity of the hidden neurons was used to compute a motor program (a population code on a bidimensional map) through a simple linear projection and delta rule learning. The average motor error, calculated as the difference between the expected and the computed output, was less than 3°. Importantly, analyses of the hidden neurons revealed gain-modulated visual receptive fields, thereby showing that space coding for sensorimotor transformations similar to that observed in the PPC can emerge through unsupervised learning. These results suggest that gain modulation is an efficient coding strategy to integrate visual and postural information toward the generation of motor commands.

Cost-effectiveness of lenalidomide plus dexamethasone vs. bortezomib plus melphalan and prednisone in transplant-ineligible U.S. patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Usmani, S Z; Cavenagh, J D; Belch, A R; Hulin, C; Basu, S; White, D; Nooka, A; Ervin-Haynes, A; Yiu, W; Nagarwala, Y; Berger, A; Pelligra, C G; Guo, S; Binder, G; Gibson, C J; Facon, T

2016-01-01

To conduct a cost-effectiveness assessment of lenalidomide plus dexamethasone (Rd) vs bortezomib plus melphalan and prednisone (VMP) as initial treatment for transplant-ineligible patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM), from a U.S. payer perspective. A partitioned survival model was developed to estimate expected life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), direct costs and incremental costs per QALY and LY gained associated with use of Rd vs VMP over a patient's lifetime. Information on the efficacy and safety of Rd and VMP was based on data from multinational phase III clinical trials and a network meta-analysis. Pre-progression direct costs included the costs of Rd and VMP, treatment of adverse events (including prophylaxis) and routine care and monitoring associated with MM. Post-progression direct costs included costs of subsequent treatment(s) and routine care and monitoring for progressive disease, all obtained from published literature and estimated from a U.S. payer perspective. Utilities were obtained from the aforementioned trials. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% annually. Relative to VMP, use of Rd was expected to result in an additional 2.22 LYs and 1.47 QALYs (discounted). Patients initiated with Rd were expected to incur an additional $78,977 in mean lifetime direct costs (discounted) vs those initiated with VMP. The incremental costs per QALY and per LY gained with Rd vs VMP were $53,826 and $35,552, respectively. In sensitivity analyses, results were found to be most sensitive to differences in survival associated with Rd vs VMP, the cost of lenalidomide and the discount rate applied to effectiveness outcomes. Rd was expected to result in greater LYs and QALYs compared with VMP, with similar overall costs per LY for each regimen. Results of this analysis indicated that Rd may be a cost-effective alternative to VMP as initial treatment for transplant-ineligible patients with MM, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio well within the levels for recent advancements in oncology.

Potential gains in life expectancy from reducing heart disease, cancer, Alzheimer's disease, kidney disease or HIV/AIDS as major causes of death in the USA.

PubMed

Wang, G D; Lai, D J; Burau, K D; Du, X L

2013-04-01

Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) that give proper consideration to competing risks are an effective indicator for measuring the impact of multiple causes of death on a defined population. This study aimed to assess PGLE by hypothetically reducing the major causes of death in the USA from 2001 to 2008. PGLEs due to the reduction and elimination of heart disease, cancer, Alzheimer's disease, kidney disease or human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) were calculated by age, gender and race. Age-specific mortality rates for the above diseases from the National Center for Health Statistics were used, and multiple decremental life tables were constructed to compute the corresponding PGLEs. PGLEs due to the elimination of heart disease, cancer or HIV/AIDS decreased from 2001 to 2008, but PGLEs due to the elimination of Alzheimer's disease or kidney disease increased over time. For heart disease, PGLE in 2001-2008 for all races was 2.78-2.15 for females vs 2.41-2.06 for males. For cancer, PGLE in 2001-2008 for all races was 2.97-2.81 for females vs 3.02-2.85 for males. HIV/AIDS has a greater impact on people of working age, whereas Alzheimer's disease has a greater impact on the elderly population. To compare the impacts of these diseases on life expectancy, partial multiple decremental life tables were constructed, and PGLEs were computed by a partial reduction or complete elimination of various causes of death for the entire life span as well as for certain working ages. This study outlined a picture of how each category of diseases could affect life expectancy in the US population by age, race or sex. The findings may assist in evaluating current public health improvements, and also provide useful information for directing future research and disease control programmes. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gain degradation and efficiencies of spiral electron multipliers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Judge, R. J. R.; Palmer, D. A.

1973-01-01

The characteristics of spiral electron multipliers as functions of accumulated counts were investigated. The mean gain of the multipliers showed a steady decline from about 100 million when new, to about one million after 100 billion events when biased in a saturation mode. For prolonged use in a space environment, improved life expectancy might be obtained with a varying bias voltage adjusted to maintain the gain comfortably above a given discrimination level. Pulse-height distributions at various stages of the lifetime and variations of efficiency with energy of detected electrons are presented.

Downgrading and Discounting the Qualifications of Migrant Professionals in England: The Case of Overseas-Trained Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Paul Washington

2008-01-01

Highly trained teachers from across the world come to England expecting to practice their profession. These expectations are dashed however, if their qualifications and work experience, gained in their home countries, are not recognised as legitimate by potential employers and accreditation bodies. This type of social situation is the focus of…

Using Expectancy-Value Theory to Explore Aspects of Motivation and Engagement in Inquiry-Based Learning in Primary Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

2017-01-01

Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and…

Adult Age Differences in Frequency Estimations of Happy and Angry Faces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nikitin, Jana; Freund, Alexandra M.

2015-01-01

With increasing age, the ratio of gains to losses becomes more negative, which is reflected in expectations that positive events occur with a high likelihood in young adulthood, whereas negative events occur with a high likelihood in old age. Little is known about expectations of social events. Given that younger adults are motivated to establish…

Improving Students Soft Skills Using Thinking Process Profile Based on Personality Types

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sunarto, M. J. Dewiyani

2015-01-01

The challenge in education field these days rises as the cause of society's expectation for higher education. This increasingly complex expectation demands that higher education prepares the students to gain integrity. Higher education provides not only hard skills for the student, but also soft skills. By observing the hard skills side, in the…

Motivating Cord Blood Donation with Information and Behavioral Nudges.

PubMed

Grieco, Daniela; Lacetera, Nicola; Macis, Mario; Di Martino, Daniela

2018-01-10

Umbilical cord blood is a source of hematopoietic stem cells essential to treat life-threatening diseases, such as leukemia and lymphoma. However, only a very small percentage of parents donate upon delivery. The decision to donate the cord blood occurs at a very specific time and when parents likely experience emotional, informational, and decisional overloads; these features of cord blood donation make it different from other pro-social activities. In collaboration with an OB-GYN clinic in Milan, Italy, we conducted the first randomized controlled trial that applies tools from behavioral science to foster cord blood donation, and quantified the gains that informational and behavioral "nudges" can achieve. We found that information and "soft" commitments increased donations; approaching expecting parents closer to the delivery date and providing them with multiple reminders, moreover, had the strongest impact. However, a significant portion of women who expressed consent to donate could not do so because of organizational constraints. We conclude that simple, non-invasive behavioral interventions that address information gaps and procrastination, and that increase the salience of the activity can substantially enhance altruistic donations of cord blood, especially when coupled with organizational support.

Improvement of non-key traits in radiata pine breeding programme when long-term economic importance is uncertain.

PubMed

Li, Yongjun; Dungey, Heidi; Yanchuk, Alvin; Apiolaza, Luis A

2017-01-01

Diameter at breast height (DBH), wood density (DEN) and predicted modulus of elasticity (PME) are considered as 'key traits' (KT) in the improvement in radiata pine breeding programmes in New Zealand. Any other traits which are also of interest to radiata pine breeders and forest growers are called 'non-key traits' (NKTs). External resin bleeding (ERB), internal checking (IC), number of heartwood rings (NHR) are three such non-key traits which affect wood quality of radiata pine timber. Economic importance of the KTs and NKTs is hard to define in radiata pine breeding programmes due to long rotation period. Desired-gain index (DGIs) and robust selection were proposed to incorporate NKTs into radiata pine breeding programme in order to deal with the uncertainty of economic importance. Four desired-gain indices A-D were proposed in this study. The desired-gain index A (DGI-A) emphasized growth and led to small decrease in ERB and small increase in IC and NHR. The expected genetic gains of all traits in the desired-gain index B (DGI-B) were in the favourable directions (positive genetic gains in the key traits and negative genetic gains in the non-key traits). The desired-gain index C (DGI-C) placed emphasis on wood density, leading to favourable genetic gain in the NKTs but reduced genetic gains for DBH and PME. The desired-gain index D (DGI-D) exerted a bit more emphasis on the non-key traits, leading large favourable reduction in the non-key traits and lower increase in the key traits compared with the other DGIs. When selecting both the key traits and the non-key traits, the average EBVs of six traits were all in the same directions as the expected genetic gains except for DBH in the DGI-D. When the key traits were measured and selected, internal checking always had a negative (favourable) genetic gain but ERB and NHR had unfavourable genetic gain in the most of time. After removing some individuals with high sensitivity to the change of economic weights, robust desired-gain selection made genetic gains of all the key and non-key traits to move a little bit toward unfavourable directions in the four indices. It is concluded that desired-gain index combined with robust selection concept is an efficient way for selecting the key and non-key traits in radiata pine breeding programmes.

Simulation of quitting smoking in the military shows higher lifetime medical spending more than offset by productivity gains.

PubMed

Yang, Wenya; Dall, Timothy M; Zhang, Yiduo; Zhang, Shiping; Arday, David R; Dorn, Patricia W; Jain, Anjali

2012-12-01

Despite the documented benefits of quitting smoking, studies have found that smokers who quit may have higher lifetime medical costs, in part because of increased risk for medical conditions, such as type 2 diabetes, brought on by associated weight gain. Using a simulation model and data on 612,332 adult smokers in the US Department of Defense's TRICARE Prime health plan in 2008, we estimated that cessation accompanied by weight gain would increase average life expectancy by 3.7 years, and that the average lifetime reduction in medical expenditures from improved health ($5,600) would be offset by additional expenditures resulting from prolonged life ($7,300). Results varied by age and sex: For females ages 18-44 at time of cessation, there would be net savings of $1,200 despite additional medical expenditures from prolonged life. Avoidance of weight gain after quitting smoking would increase average life expectancy by four additional months and reduce mean extra spending resulting from prolonged life by $700. Overall, the average net lifetime health care cost increase of $1,700 or less per ex-smoker would be modest and, for employed people, more than offset by even one year's worth of productivity gains. These results boost the case for smoking cessation programs in the military in particular, along with not selling cigarettes in commissaries or at reduced prices.

Representation of potential information gain to measure the price of anarchy on ISR activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Peña, Hector J.; Hirsch, Michael; Karwan, Mark; Nagi, Rakesh; Sudit, Moises

2013-05-01

One of the main technical challenges facing intelligence analysts today is effectively determining information gaps from huge amounts of collected data. Moreover, getting the right information to/from the right person (e.g., analyst, warfighter on the edge) at the right time in a distributed environment has been elusive to our military forces. Synchronization of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) activities to maximize the efficient utilization of limited resources (both in quantity and capabilities) has become critically important to increase the accuracy and timeliness of overall information gain. Given this reality, we are interested in quantifying the degradation of solution quality (i.e., information gain) as a centralized system synchronizing ISR activities (from information gap identification to information collection and dissemination) moves to a more decentralized framework. This evaluation extends the concept of price of anarchy, a measure of the inefficiency of a system when agents maximize decisions without coordination, by considering different levels of decentralization. Our initial research representing the potential information gain in geospatial and time discretized spaces is presented. This potential information gain map can represent a consolidation of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield products as input to automated ISR synchronization tools. Using the coordination of unmanned vehicles (UxVs) as an example, we developed a mathematical programming model for multi-perspective optimization in which each UxV develops its own fight plan to support mission objectives based only on its perspective of the environment (i.e., potential information gain map). Information is only exchanged when UxVs are part of the same communication network.

Use and acceptance of Wiki systems for students of veterinary medicine

PubMed Central

Kolski, Darius; Arlt, Sebastian; Birk, Stephan; Heuwieser, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Objective: Wiki systems are gaining importance concerning the use in education, especially among young users. The aim of our study was to examine, how students of veterinary medicine commonly use wiki systems, whether they consider a veterinary wiki system useful and if they would participate in writing content. Methodology: For data collection a questionnaire was provided to students (n=210) of the faculty of Veterinary Medicine at the Freie Universität Berlin, Germany. It contained questions regarding the use of Wikipedia in general and concerning educational issues. Results: Most respondents, especially students in the first years, had comprehensive experience in the use of Wikipedia and veterinary wiki systems. In contrast, the experience in writing or editing of information was low (8.6% Wikipedia, 15.3% veterinary wiki systems). Male students had significantly more writing experience than females (p=0,008). In addition, students of the higher years were more experienced in writing and editing than students of the first year (7.4% in the 4th year). The familiarity with wiki systems offered by universities was low. The majority of students (96.2%) are willing to use veterinary wiki systems as an information tool in the future. Nevertheless, only a low percentage is willing to write or edit content. Many students, however, expect a better learning success when writing own texts. In general, students consider the quality of information in a wiki system as correct. Conclusion: In conclusion, wiki systems are considered a useful tool to gain information. This will lead to a successful implementation of wiki systems in veterinary education. A main challenge will be to develop concepts to activate students to participate not only in reading but in the writing and editing process. PMID:23467415

Assessment of maternal risk factors associated with low birth weight neonates at a tertiary hospital, Nanded, Maharashtra.

PubMed

Domple, Vijay Kishanrao; Doibale, Mohan K; Nair, Abhilasha; Rajput, Pinkesh S

2016-01-01

To assess the maternal risk factors associated with low birth weight (LBW) neonates at a tertiary hospital, Nanded, Maharashtra. This study was carried out in a tertiary care hospital in Nanded city of Maharashtra between January 2014 and July 2014 among 160 cases (LBW-birth weight ≤2499 g) and 160 controls (normal birth weight-birth weight >2499. Data collection was done by using predesigned questionnaire and also related health documents were checked and collected the expected information during the interview after obtaining informed consent from mothers. The data were analyzed by Epi Info 7 Version. The present study found the significant association among gestational age, sex of baby, type of delivery, maternal age, religion, education of mother and husband, occupation of mother and husband, type of family, maternal height, weight gain, hemoglobin level, planned/unplanned delivery, bad obstetric history, interval between pregnancies, previous history of LBW, underlying disease, tobacco chewing, timing of first antenatal care (ANC) visit, total number of ANC visit, and iron and folic acid (IFA) tablets consumption with LBW. No significant association was found among maternal age, residence, caste, consanguinity of marriage, socioeconomic status, gravida, birth order, multiple pregnancy, and smoking with LBW in our study. It was concluded that hemoglobin level, weight gain during pregnancy, gestational age, planned/unplanned delivery, bad obstetric history, and IFA tablets consumption during pregnancy were independent risk factors for LBW.

Cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis of nutritional support for preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk patients: implement now, research later.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Roberts, Shelley; Chaboyer, Wendy; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

2015-04-01

Pressure ulcers are a major cause of mortality, morbidity, and increased healthcare cost. Nutritional support may reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers in hospitalised patients who are at risk of pressure ulcer and malnutrition. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional support in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients, and to assess the value of further research to inform the decision to implement this intervention using value of information analysis (VOI). The analysis was from the perspective of Queensland Health, Australia using a decision model with evidence derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Resources were valued using 2014 prices and the time horizon of the analysis was one year. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate net monetary benefits (NB) and to calculate VOI measures. Compared with standard hospital diet, nutritional support was cost saving at AU$425 per patient, and more effective with an average 0.005 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. At a willingness-to-pay of AU$50,000 per QALY, the incremental NB was AU$675 per patient, with a probability of 87 % that nutritional support is cost-effective. The expected value of perfect information was AU$5 million and the expected value of perfect parameter information was highest for the relative risk of developing a pressure ulcer at AU$2.5 million. For a future trial investigating the relative effectiveness of the interventions, the expected net benefit of research would be maximised at AU$100,000 with 1,200 patients in each arm if nutritional support was perfectly implemented. The opportunity cost of withholding the decision to implement the intervention until the results of the future study are available would be AU$14 million. Nutritional support is cost-effective in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients compared with standard diet. Future research to reduce decision uncertainty is worthwhile; however, given the opportunity losses associated with delaying the implementation, "implement and research" is the approach recommended for this intervention.

The utility of hand transplantation in hand amputee patients.

PubMed

Alolabi, Noor; Chuback, Jennifer; Grad, Sharon; Thoma, Achilles

2015-01-01

To measure the desirable health outcome, termed utility, and the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with hand composite tissue allotransplantation (CTA) using hand amputee patients and the general public. Using the standard gamble (SG) and time trade-off (TTO) techniques, utilities were obtained from 30 general public participants and 12 amputee patients. The health utility and net QALYs gained or lost with transplantation were computed. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to account for the effects of lifelong immunosuppression on the life expectancy of transplant recipients. Higher scores represent greater utility. Hand amputation mean health utility as measured by the SG and TTO methods, respectively, was 0.72 and 0.80 for the general public and 0.69 and 0.70 for hand amputees. In comparison, hand CTA mean health utility was 0.74 and 0.82 for the general public and 0.83 and 0.86 for amputees. Hand CTA imparted an expected gain of 0.9 QALYs (SG and TTO) in the general public and 7.0 (TTO) and 7.8 (SG) QALYs in hand amputees. A loss of at least 1.7 QALYs was demonstrated when decreasing the life expectancy in the sensitivity analysis in the hand amputee group. Hand amputee patients did not show a preference toward hand CTA with its inherent risks. With this procedure being increasingly adopted worldwide, the benefits must be carefully weighed against the risks of lifelong immunosuppressive therapy. This study does not show clear benefit to advocate hand CTA. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An elicitation of utility for quality of life under prospect theory.

PubMed

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; l'Haridon, Olivier; Pinto, Jose Luis

2016-07-01

This paper performs several tests of decision analysis applied to the health domain. First, we conduct a test of the normative expected utility theory. Second, we investigate the possibility to elicit the more general prospect theory. We observe risk aversion for gains and losses and violations of expected utility. These results imply that mechanisms governing decisions in the health domain are similar to those in the monetary domain. However, we also report one important deviation: utility is universally concave for the health outcomes used in this study, in contrast to the commonly found S-shaped utility for monetary outcomes, with concave utility for gains and convex utility for losses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Participatory Action Research Experiences for Undergraduates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sample McMeeking, L. B.; Weinberg, A. E.

2013-12-01

Research experiences for undergraduates (REU) have been shown to be effective in improving undergraduate students' personal/professional development, ability to synthesize knowledge, improvement in research skills, professional advancement, and career choice. Adding to the literature on REU programs, a new conceptual model situating REU within a context of participatory action research (PAR) is presented and compared with data from a PAR-based coastal climate research experience that took place in Summer 2012. The purpose of the interdisciplinary Participatory Action Research Experiences for Undergraduates (PAREU) model is to act as an additional year to traditional, lab-based REU where undergraduate science students, social science experts, and community members collaborate to develop research with the goal of enacting change. The benefits to traditional REU's are well established and include increased content knowledge, better research skills, changes in attitudes, and greater career awareness gained by students. Additional positive outcomes are expected from undergraduate researchers (UR) who participate in PAREU, including the ability to better communicate with non-scientists. With highly politicized aspects of science, such as climate change, this becomes especially important for future scientists. Further, they will be able to articulate the relevance of science research to society, which is an important skill, especially given the funding climate where agencies require broader impacts statements. Making science relevant may also benefit URs who wish to apply their science research. Finally, URs will gain social science research skills by apprenticing in a research project that includes science and social science research components, which enables them to participate in future education and outreach. The model also positively impacts community members by elevating their voices within and outside the community, particularly in areas severely underserved socially and politically. The PAREU model empowers the community to take action from the research they, themselves, conducted, and enables them to carry out future research. Finally, many of these communities (and the general public) lack the understanding of the nature of science, which leads to ignorance on the part of citizens in areas of science such as climate change. By participating in science/social science research, community members gain a better understanding of the nature of science, making them more informed citizens. The PAREU model is theoretically grounded in decades of research in social science and documented impacts of student research experiences. In addition to providing practical benefits for communities with needs solvable by scientific research, the model builds on and expands student skills gained from traditional REU programs Deep and sustained engagement among scientists, social scientists, and community leaders is expected to create better informed citizens and improve their ability to solve problems.

Expecting and Achieving Gains in Student Performance: EVAAS Value-Added Report 2002-2004 for the Archdiocese of Indianapolis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costello, Ronald W.; Shuey, Barbara

2005-01-01

The Archdiocese of Indianapolis has been using the Sander's value-added model to determine if they have had gains in student achievement in language arts, mathematics and reading. The article summarizes the method to make this determination and the results from three years of testing using the CTB McGraw-Hill Terre Nova test. The archdiocese has…

West Virginia Department of Education GEAR UP Project: Year 1 Baseline Survey (2000-2001). Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for Undergraduate Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howley, Caitlin; Cowley, Kimberly S.

GEAR UP (Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for Undergraduate Programs) is a federally funded program aimed at encouraging disadvantaged middle and high school students to have high expectations, stay in school, and take college preparatory courses. The West Virginia Department of Education received funding to conduct the program in eight rural…

Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking: a quantitative health impact assessment.

PubMed

Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Mackenbach, Johan P

2016-08-05

Influencing the life-style risk-factors alcohol, body mass index (BMI), and smoking is an European Union (EU) wide objective of public health policy. The population-level health effects of these risk-factors depend on population specific characteristics and are difficult to quantify without dynamic population health models. For eleven countries-approx. 80 % of the EU-27 population-we used evidence from the publicly available DYNAMO-HIA data-set. For each country the age- and sex-specific risk-factor prevalence and the incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of nine chronic diseases are utilized; including the corresponding relative risks linking risk-factor exposure causally to disease incidence and all-cause mortality. Applying the DYNAMO-HIA tool, we dynamically project the country-wise potential health gains and losses using feasible, i.e. observed elsewhere, risk-factor prevalence rates as benchmarks. The effects of the "worst practice", "best practice", and the currently observed risk-factor prevalence on population health are quantified and expected changes in life expectancy, morbidity-free life years, disease cases, and cumulative mortality are reported. Applying the best practice smoking prevalence yields the largest gains in life expectancy with 0.4 years for males and 0.3 year for females (approx. 332,950 and 274,200 deaths postponed, respectively) while the worst practice smoking prevalence also leads to the largest losses with 0.7 years for males and 0.9 year for females (approx. 609,400 and 710,550 lives lost, respectively). Comparing morbidity-free life years, the best practice smoking prevalence shows the highest gains for males with 0.4 years (342,800 less disease cases), whereas for females the best practice BMI prevalence yields the largest gains with 0.7 years (1,075,200 less disease cases). Smoking is still the risk-factor with the largest potential health gains. BMI, however, has comparatively large effects on morbidity. Future research should aim to improve knowledge of how policies can influence and shape individual and aggregated life-style-related risk-factor behavior.

Outcome expectations and use of smokeless tobacco (snus): a cross-sectional study among young Norwegian snus users.

PubMed

Wiium, Nora; Aarø, Leif E

2011-02-01

In this study, measures of outcome expectancies related to use of snus (wet snuff) were used to predict reported frequency of snus use. Data stem from a nation-wide survey in Norway among 16- to 20-year-olds. Only users of snus were included in the statistical analyses (n = 589). The main outcome measure, frequency of snus use, was measured as a categorical variable - occasional, weekly and daily use. Four dimensions of outcome expectancies (mood regulation, smoking control, weight control and negative health outcomes) were measured and confirmed in a confirmatory factor analysis. Informants tended to believe that snus use is harmful to health, but still they supported the idea of snus as a way to control own cigarette smoking. In a SEM model, two of the four dimensions of outcome expectancies turned out to be particularly significant predictors of frequency of snus use - mood regulation and smoking control. No significant interactions with gender were found. Males scored higher than females on "mood regulation", and "smoking control", while females scored higher than males on "negative health outcomes". If more smokers were convinced that snus use is a less harmful alternative, more of them might start using snus, not only because there is some association between health outcome expectancies and snus use, but also because snus use by many is perceived as a remedy to stop smoking and as a way to gain some of the mood regulation benefits which are usually associated with smoking. © 2010 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2010 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Trade-off between cancer and aging: What role do other diseases play? Evidence from experimental and human population studies

PubMed Central

Yashin, Anatoli I.; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.; Akushevich, Igor V.; Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Kulminski, Alexander; Akushevich, Lucy

2009-01-01

The potential gain in life expectancy which could result from the complete elimination of mortality from cancer in the U.S. would not exceed 3 years if one were to consider cancer independently of other causes of death. In this paper, we review evidence of trade-offs between cancer and aging as well as between cancer and other diseases, which, if taken into account, may substantially increase estimates of gain in life expectancy resulting from cancer eradication. We also used the Multiple Causes of Death (MCD) data to evaluate correlations among mortalities from cancer and other major disorders including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s diseases, and asthma. Our analyses revealed significant negative correlations between cancer and other diseases suggesting stronger population effects of cancer eradication. Possible mechanisms of the observed dependencies and emerging perspectives of using dependent competing risks models for evaluating the effects of reduction of mortality from cancer on life expectancy are discussed. PMID:18452970

A Multigene Test Could Cost-Effectively Help Extend Life Expectancy for Women at Risk of Hereditary Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Li, Yonghong; Arellano, Andre R; Bare, Lance A; Bender, Richard A; Strom, Charles M; Devlin, James J

2017-04-01

The National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends that women who carry gene variants that confer substantial risk for breast cancer consider risk-reduction strategies, that is, enhanced surveillance (breast magnetic resonance imaging and mammography) or prophylactic surgery. Pathogenic variants can be detected in women with a family history of breast or ovarian cancer syndromes by multigene panel testing. To investigate whether using a seven-gene test to identify women who should consider risk-reduction strategies could cost-effectively increase life expectancy. We estimated effectiveness and lifetime costs from a payer perspective for two strategies in two hypothetical cohorts of women (40-year-old and 50-year-old cohorts) who meet the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-defined family history criteria for multigene testing. The two strategies were the usual test strategy for variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 and the seven-gene test strategy for variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53, PTEN, CDH1, STK11, and PALB2. Women found to have a pathogenic variant were assumed to undergo either prophylactic surgery or enhanced surveillance. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the seven-gene test strategy compared with the BRCA1/2 test strategy was $42,067 per life-year gained or $69,920 per quality-adjusted life-year gained for the 50-year-old cohort and $23,734 per life-year gained or $48,328 per quality-adjusted life-year gained for the 40-year-old cohort. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the seven-gene test strategy cost less than $100,000 per life-year gained in 95.7% of the trials for the 50-year-old cohort. Testing seven breast cancer-associated genes, followed by risk-reduction management, could cost-effectively improve life expectancy for women at risk of hereditary breast cancer. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evaluation of a mass media campaign aimed at weight gain prevention among young Dutch adults.

PubMed

Wammes, Birgitte; Oenema, Anke; Brug, Johannes

2007-11-01

The objective was to evaluate a 3-year nationwide mass media campaign aimed at preventing weight gain. The campaign was aimed primarily at raising awareness of the importance of weight-gain prevention and bringing these issues to the attention of the Dutch public. Eleven serial, independent, cross-sectional, population-based telephone surveys were used to assess campaign awareness and impact (N ranged between 483 and 493 for each of the 11 surveys). The surveys were conducted before and after six campaign waves. Multiple linear and logistic regression analyses were used to test for trends over time and for differences among the surveys for campaign awareness, message recall, perceived body weight status, overweight-related risk perceptions, attitudes, perceived social support, self-efficacy expectations, and motivations for preventing weight gain. Campaign awareness ranged from 61% after the 1st campaign wave to 88.4% after the final wave. The campaign's television broadcasting activities were an important source of campaign awareness, from both the campaign's television commercials and television-based free publicity. Message recall ranged from 41.9% to 68.1%. Small positive differences were found in attitudes, perceived social support, and intentions for preventing weight gain. Additionally, the results suggest mixed effects on self-efficacy expectations and a negative effect on risk perception. The campaign resulted in high campaign awareness, especially as a result of television commercials and free publicity on television. The results suggest that the campaign was able to create more positive attitudes and motivation but lower risk perceptions and efficacy for preventing weight gain.

Therapy was not what I expected: a preliminary qualitative analysis of concordance between client expectations and experience of cognitive-behavioural therapy.

PubMed

Westra, Henny Alice; Aviram, Adi; Barnes, Marissa; Angus, Lynne

2010-07-01

Expectancy violations have generally been neglected in psychotherapy research but may have important implications for therapy process and outcome. A qualitative approach was used to examine discrepancies between actual experience and expectations in client posttreatment accounts of cognitive-behavioural therapy. Nine good- and nine poor-outcome cases were included. Good-outcome clients frequently reported disconfirmation of process expectations, including surprise that therapy was collaborative, that they had the freedom to direct therapy, and that they were comfortable and could trust the process. Poor-outcome clients generally failed to report such experiences. Good-outcome clients also reported gaining more from treatment than expected, whereas poor-outcome clients reported being disappointed. These findings suggest an important role for expectancy disconfirmation in therapy.

Weight Management

MedlinePlus

... Expectations & Goals Healthier Lifestyle Healthier Lifestyle Physical Fitness Food & Nutrition Sleep, Stress & Relaxation Emotions & Relationships HealthyYouTXT Tools Home » Weight Management Weight Management Fear of weight gain keeps a ...

A palliative approach to dialysis care: a patient-centered transition to the end of life.

PubMed

Grubbs, Vanessa; Moss, Alvin H; Cohen, Lewis M; Fischer, Michael J; Germain, Michael J; Jassal, S Vanita; Perl, Jeffrey; Weiner, Daniel E; Mehrotra, Rajnish

2014-12-05

As the importance of providing patient-centered palliative care for patients with advanced illnesses gains attention, standard dialysis delivery may be inconsistent with the goals of care for many patients with ESRD. Many dialysis patients with life expectancy of <1 year may desire a palliative approach to dialysis care, which focuses on aligning patient treatment with patients' informed preferences. This commentary elucidates what comprises a palliative approach to dialysis care and describes its potential and appropriate use. It also reviews the barriers to integrating such an approach into the current clinical paradigm of care and existing infrastructure and outlines system-level changes needed to accommodate such an approach. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Summer 2014 Marketing Intern Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pereda-Ramos, Marlee

2014-01-01

As a summer 2014 Marketing Intern for NASA Kennedy Space Centers (KSCs) Center Planning and Development directorate, I have gained much experience and knowledge of what is expected of me in any work environment. Throughout my time at KSC, I have had a number of responsibilities and duties, many of which involved collaborating with other directorates in order to acquire guidance and information from other NASA experts, attending and participating in meetings, and also editing and providing input to a collective project. My goal in this paper is to summarize my experience at KSC by explaining my responsibilities in detail and the skills I am able to take away as a result that will further aid me in my career path for the future.

Living healthier for longer: Comparative effects of three heart-healthy behaviors on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Non-smoking, having a normal weight and increased levels of physical activity are perhaps the three key factors for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the relative effects of these factors on healthy longevity have not been well described. We aimed to calculate and compare the effects of non-smoking, normal weight and physical activity in middle-aged populations on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease. Methods Using multi-state life tables and data from the Framingham Heart Study (n = 4634) we calculated the effects of three heart healthy behaviours among populations aged 50 years and over on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease. For the life table calculations, we used hazard ratios for 3 transitions (No CVD to CVD, no CVD to death, and CVD to death) by health behaviour category, and adjusted for age, sex, and potential confounders. Results High levels of physical activity, never smoking (men), and normal weight were each associated with 20-40% lower risks of developing CVD as compared to low physical activity, current smoking and obesity, respectively. Never smoking and high levels of physical activity reduced the risks of dying in those with and without a history of CVD, but normal weight did not. Never-smoking was associated with the largest gains in total life expectancy (4.3 years, men, 4.1 years, women) and CVD-free life expectancy (3.8 and 3.4 years, respectively). High levels of physical activity and normal weight were associated with lesser gains in total life expectancy (3.5 years, men and 3.4 years, women, and 1.3 years, men and 1.0 year women, respectively), and slightly lesser gains in CVD-free life expectancy (3.0 years, men and 3.1 years, women, and 3.1 years men and 2.9 years women, respectively). Normal weight was the only behaviour associated with a reduction in the number of years lived with CVD (1.8 years, men and 1.9 years, women). Conclusions Achieving high levels of physical activity, normal weight, and never smoking, are effective ways to prevent cardiovascular disease and to extend total life expectancy and the number of years lived free of CVD. Increasing the prevalence of normal weight could further reduce the time spent with CVD in the population. PMID:20034381

Investigating message-framing effects in the context of a tailored intervention promoting physical activity.

PubMed

van 't Riet, Jonathan; Ruiter, Robert A C; Werrij, Marieke Q; de Vries, Hein

2010-04-01

Health-promoting messages can be framed in terms of the gains associated with healthy behaviour or the losses associated with unhealthy behaviour. It has been argued that gain-framed messages promoting physical activity (PA) are more effective than loss-framed messages, but empirical findings are inconsistent. Also, no previous studies investigated the effects of gain- and loss-framed messages in the context of a computer-tailored PA intervention. In this study, we provided participants with computer-generated tailored feedback concerning their PA levels. In total, 787 participants entered in the study, of whom 299 completed all measures at a 3-month follow-up. We investigated whether gain- and loss-framed messages promoting PA affected information acceptance, attitude, intention and behaviour differently. The results showed that gain-framed messages resulted in stronger intentions to be physically active than loss-framed messages. This did not result in a significant increase in actual PA, however, as measured by a 3-month follow-up assessment. For information acceptance and attitude, a non-significant advantage of gain-framed messages was found. All effects had small effect sizes. Thus, whereas gain-framed information might be more persuasive than loss-framed information when it comes to promoting PA, the differences between gain- and loss-framed messages are likely to be small.

78 FR 74125 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Measuring Educational Gain in the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-10

...; Comment Request; Measuring Educational Gain in the National Reporting System for Adult Education AGENCY... respondents, including through the use of information technology. Please note that written comments received... Educational Gain in the National Reporting System for Adult Education. OMB Control Number: 1830-0567. Type of...

77 FR 60025 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request for Information Collection Tools

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-01

... an existing final regulation, INTL-485-89 (TD 8400), Taxation of Gain or Loss from Certain... information collection tools, reporting, and record-keeping requirements: (1) Title: Taxation of Gain or Loss... to make elections concerning the taxation of exchange gain or loss on certain foreign currency...

A systematic review of patient perspectives on surveillance after colorectal cancer treatment.

PubMed

Berian, Julia R; Cuddy, Amanda; Francescatti, Amanda B; O'Dwyer, Linda; Nancy You, Y; Volk, Robert J; Chang, George J

2017-10-01

Surveillance after colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment is routine, but intensive follow-up may offer little-to-no overall survival benefit. Given the growing population of CRC survivors, we aimed to systematically evaluate the literature for the patient perspective on two questions: (1) How do CRC patients perceive routine surveillance following curative treatment and what do they expect to gain from their surveillance testing or visits? (2) Which providers (specialists, nursing, primary care) are preferred by CRC survivors to guide post-treatment surveillance? Systematic searches of PubMed MEDLINE, Embase, the CENTRAL Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were conducted. Studies were screened for inclusion by two reviewers, with discrepancies adjudicated by a third reviewer. Data were abstracted and evaluated utilizing validated reporting tools (CONSORT, STROBE, CASP) appropriate to study design. Citations (3691) were screened, 91 full-text articles reviewed, and 23 studies included in the final review: 15 quantitative and 8 qualitative. Overall, 12 studies indicated CRC patients perceive routine surveillance positively, expecting to gain reassurance of continued disease suppression. Negative perceptions described in six studies included anxiety and dissatisfaction related to quality of life or psychosocial issues during follow-up. Although 5 studies supported specialist-led care, 9 studies indicated patient willingness to have follow-up with non-specialist providers (primary care or nursing). Patients' perceptions of follow-up after CRC are predominantly positive, although unmet needs included psychosocial support and quality of life. Survivors perceived follow-up as reassuring, however, surveillance care should be more informative and focused on survivor-specific needs.

Universality of optimal measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarrach, Rolf; Vidal, Guifré

1999-11-01

We present optimal and minimal measurements on identical copies of an unknown state of a quantum bit when the quality of measuring strategies is quantified with the gain of information (Kullback-or mutual information-of probability distributions). We also show that the maximal gain of information occurs, among isotropic priors, when the state is known to be pure. Universality of optimal measurements follows from our results: using the fidelity or the gain of information, two different figures of merits, leads to exactly the same conclusions for isotropic distributions. We finally investigate the optimal capacity of N copies of an unknown state as a quantum channel of information.

Dual conception of risk in the Iowa Gambling Task: effects of sleep deprivation and test-retest gap.

PubMed

Singh, Varsha

2013-01-01

Risk in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is often understood in terms of intertemporal choices, i.e., preference for immediate outcomes in favor of delayed outcomes is considered risky decision making. According to behavioral economics, healthy decision makers are expected to refrain from choosing the short-sighted immediate gain because, over time (10 trials of the IGT), the immediate gains result in a long term loss (net loss). Instead decision makers are expected to maximize their gains by choosing options that, over time (10 trials), result in delayed or long term gains (net gain). However, task choices are sometimes made on the basis of the frequency of reward and punishment such that frequent rewards/infrequent punishments are favored over infrequent rewards/frequent punishments. The presence of these two attributes (intertemporality and frequency of reward) in IGT decision making may correspond to the emotion-cognition dichotomy and reflect a dual conception of risk. Decision making on the basis of the two attributes was tested under two conditions: delay in retest and sleep deprivation. An interaction between sleep deprivation and time delay was expected to attenuate the difference between the two attributes. Participants were 40 male university students. Analysis of the effects of IGT attribute type (intertemporal vs. frequency of reinforcement), sleep deprivation (sleep deprivation vs. no sleep deprivation), and test-retest gap (short vs. long delay) showed a significant within-subjects effect of IGT attribute type thus confirming the difference between the two attributes. Sleep deprivation had no effect on the attributes, but test-retest gap and the three-way interaction between attribute type, test-retest gap, and sleep deprivation were significantly different. Post-hoc tests revealed that sleep deprivation and short test-retest gap attenuated the difference between the two attributes. Furthermore, the results showed an expected trend of increase in intertemporal decision making at retest suggesting that intertemporal decision making benefited from repeated task exposure. The present findings add to understanding of the emotion-cognition dichotomy. Further, they show an important time-dependent effect of a universally experienced constraint (sleep deprivation) on decision making. It is concluded that risky decision making in the IGT is contingent on the attribute under consideration and is affected by factors such as time elapsed and constraint experienced before the retest.

Simulations on false gain in recombination-pumped soft-X-ray lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, T.; Kuroda, H.

1997-10-01

Numerical investigations are performed on false gain due to axial plasma expansion, which is expected to be important in initial proof-of-principle studies of recombination-pumped soft-X-ray lasers with extended capabilities. Modelling calculations of experiments with slab boron nitride targets reveal large false gain coefficients approaching 20 cm-1 in the case of plasmas with short active medium lengths. The false gain in the case of fiber targets is found to be of equal magnitude to that for slabs in the case of plasmas with less than 0.1 cm active medium lengths. Calculations for slab targets predict that adopting a tolerance of ǃ cm-1 for gain will severely restrict the time and the active medium length of the plasma that can be used for error-free observations, while those for fiber targets are found to be considerably relaxed. The effects of false gain in the 54.2 + Na Balmer ! laser is also investigated, again revealing the importance of this phenomena under optimum gain conditions.

Perceived Income Adequacy Among Older Adults in 12 Countries: Findings From the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe

PubMed Central

Litwin, Howard; Sapir, Eliyahu V.

2009-01-01

Purpose: To validate a survey research measure of subjective income, as measured by perceived income adequacy, in an international context. Design and Methods: The study population comprised persons aged 50 years and older in 12 countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (n = 28,939). Perceived difficulty in making ends meet was regressed on sociodemographic variables, economic indicators, health status measures, and expectations regarding one's financial future. Country differences were also controlled. Results: The findings confirm a multidimensional explanation of perceived income adequacy but also point to the primacy of objective economic indicators in predicting household financial distress. Respondents aged 80 years and older report less financial difficulty. Poor health status and pessimistic financial expectations also predict greater household financial distress but to a lesser degree. Implications: Self-rated economic status is a robust indicator of financial capacity in older age and can be used by practitioners to gain meaningful information. However, practitioners should keep in mind that the oldest-old may underestimate financial difficulties. PMID:19386829

To kill a kangaroo: understanding the decision to pursue high-risk/high-gain resources.

PubMed

Jones, James Holland; Bird, Rebecca Bliege; Bird, Douglas W

2013-09-22

In this paper, we attempt to understand hunter-gatherer foraging decisions about prey that vary in both the mean and variance of energy return using an expected utility framework. We show that for skewed distributions of energetic returns, the standard linear variance discounting (LVD) model for risk-sensitive foraging can produce quite misleading results. In addition to creating difficulties for the LVD model, the skewed distributions characteristic of hunting returns create challenges for estimating probability distribution functions required for expected utility. We present a solution using a two-component finite mixture model for foraging returns. We then use detailed foraging returns data based on focal follows of individual hunters in Western Australia hunting for high-risk/high-gain (hill kangaroo) and relatively low-risk/low-gain (sand monitor) prey. Using probability densities for the two resources estimated from the mixture models, combined with theoretically sensible utility curves characterized by diminishing marginal utility for the highest returns, we find that the expected utility of the sand monitors greatly exceeds that of kangaroos despite the fact that the mean energy return for kangaroos is nearly twice as large as that for sand monitors. We conclude that the decision to hunt hill kangaroos does not arise simply as part of an energetic utility-maximization strategy and that additional social, political or symbolic benefits must accrue to hunters of this highly variable prey.

Exploring traditional end-of-life beliefs, values, expectations, and practices among Chinese women living in England: Informing culturally safe care.

PubMed

Fang, Mei Lan; Malcoe, Lorraine Halinka; Sixsmith, Judith; Wong, Louise Yuen Ming; Callender, Matthew

2015-10-01

This study explores the end-of-life (EoL) beliefs, values, practices, and expectations of a select group of harder-to-reach Chinese women living in England. A cultural safety approach was undertaken to interpret 11 in-depth, semistructured interviews. Interviews were conducted in Mandarin and Cantonese. Transcripts were translated and back-translated by two researchers. Findings were analyzed using the technical analytical principles of grounded theory. The key themes generated from our analysis include: acculturation; differential beliefs and norms in providing care: family versus health services; language and communication; Eastern versus Western spiritual practices and beliefs; and dying, death, and the hereafter. End-of-life discussions can be part of an arduous, painful, and uncomfortable process, particularly for migrants living on the margins of society in a new cultural setting. For some Chinese people living in the United Kingdom, end-of-life care requires attention to acculturation, particularly Western versus Eastern beliefs on religion, spirituality, burial practices, and provision of care, and the availability of culturally specific care, all of which encompass issues related to gender. Stories of a purposive sample of Chinese women were viewed through a cultural safety lens to gain a deeper understanding of how social and cultural norms and expectations, in addition to the pressures of acculturation, impact gendered roles and responsibilities. The analysis revealed variations between/within Eastern and Western culture that resulted in pronounced, and oftentimes gendered, differences in EoL care expectations.

Information-Driven Autonomous Exploration for a Vision-Based Mav

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzolo, E.; Stachniss, C.

2017-08-01

Most micro aerial vehicles (MAV) are flown manually by a pilot. When it comes to autonomous exploration for MAVs equipped with cameras, we need a good exploration strategy for covering an unknown 3D environment in order to build an accurate map of the scene. In particular, the robot must select appropriate viewpoints to acquire informative measurements. In this paper, we present an approach that computes in real-time a smooth flight path with the exploration of a 3D environment using a vision-based MAV. We assume to know a bounding box of the object or building to explore and our approach iteratively computes the next best viewpoints using a utility function that considers the expected information gain of new measurements, the distance between viewpoints, and the smoothness of the flight trajectories. In addition, the algorithm takes into account the elapsed time of the exploration run to safely land the MAV at its starting point after a user specified time. We implemented our algorithm and our experiments suggest that it allows for a precise reconstruction of the 3D environment while guiding the robot smoothly through the scene.

Compound-Specific Isotopic Analysis of Meteoritic Amino Acids as a Tool for Evaluating Potential Formation Pathways

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elsila, Jamie E.; Burton, Aaron S.; Callahan, Michael C.; Charnley, Steven B.; Glavin, Daniel P.; Dworkin, Jason P.

2012-01-01

Measurements of stable hydrogen, carbon, and nitrogen isotopic ratios (delta D, delta C-13, delta N-15) of organic compounds can reveal information about their origin and formation pathways. Several formation mechanisms and environments have been postulated for the amino acids detected in carbonaceous chondrites. As each proposed mechanism utilizes different precursor molecules, the isotopic signatures of the resulting amino acids may point towards the most likely of these proposed pathways. The technique of gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry and isotope ratio mass spectrometry provides compound-specific structural and isotopic information from a single splitless injection, enhancing the amount of information gained from small amounts of precious samples such as carbonaceous chondrites. We have applied this technique to measure the compound-specific C, N, and H isotopic ratios of amino acids from seven CM and CR carbonaceous chondrites. We are using these measurements to evaluate predictions of expected isotopic enrichments from potential formation pathways and environments, leading to a better understanding of the origin of these compounds.

In-flight calibration of the high-gain antenna pointing for the Mariner Venus-Mercury 1973 spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardman, J. M.; Havens, W. F.; Ohtakay, H.

1975-01-01

The methods used to in-flight calibrate the pointing direction of the Mariner Venus-Mercury 1973 spacecraft high gain antenna and the achieved antenna pointing accuracy are described. The overall pointing calibration was accomplished by performing calibration sequences at a number of points along the spacecraft trajectory. Each of these consisted of articulating the antenna about the expected spacecraft-earth vector to determine systematic pointing errors. The high gain antenna pointing system, the error model used in the calibration, and the calibration and pointing strategy and results are discussed.

How invasive is TMJ double-contrast arthrography in combination with cinematography? Patient discomfort versus known diagnostic gain.

PubMed

Engelke, W; Mommaerts, M

1990-04-01

There is no doubt that double-contrast TMJ fluoroscopic tomography enables a differential diagnosis and treatment in internal derangement pathosis. Its indication is, apart from the expected diagnostic gain, also determined by the degree of its invasiveness, and other alternative diagnostics being available (nuclear magnetic resonance). Data on patient discomfort and complications were gathered in 63 arthrotomographies; pain sensations and mandibular mobility, during and after the procedure in particular, were studied. We consider, along with Westesson, the procedure to be less invasive than commonly considered, once the surgeon-radiologist has gained enough experience.

An analysis of the relationship between teachers' acquisition of physics content knowledge and their level of science teaching efficacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marion, Virginia Frances

1998-12-01

The goal of Project Inquiry, a two-year long multiphase study, was to transform the delivery of science instruction from a traditional, textbook driven delivery approach to a hands-on, minds-on, constructivist approach. Teachers from a midwestern urban school district were trained in constructivism while learning physics concepts and content through guided inquiry instruction in collaborative groups. The objectives aimed to increase teachers' content expertise and science teaching efficacy, as well as to have teachers become better facilitators of learning. Phase two of the three phases of Project Inquiry was the focus of this study. Fifty-seven teachers participated in Phase two, which began with an intense two week summer institute in 1995. A longitudinal time-series (OxOO), quasi-experimental research design was used to investigate the relationship between science teaching efficacy scores and gains in physics content knowledge. The data consisted of: (a) six sets of pre and post physics content knowledge test scores (electricity, magnetism, matter and balance); (b) three sets of STEBI-A (inservice), Science Teaching Efficacy Belief Instrument scores, a pre to post, pre to follow-up, and post to follow-up; and (c) demographic variables that were used as covariates, grade taught, years of experience, and postbaccalaureate training. Using the general linear model with an Alpha level of.05, and testing the hypothesized relationships, results indicated that although there were significant positive gains in content knowledge (p =.000) and science teaching efficacy (p =.000), the overall average gains in physics content knowledge were not predictive of gains in either Personal Science Teaching Efficacy or Science Outcome Expectancy. Post hoc analysis used individual content gain scores, in regression models that included the three covariates: grade taught, years of experience, and post baccalaureate training, to test the relationship between knowledge gains and efficacy gains. A series of interactions between significant content areas and the covariates was also run. Science Teaching Outcome Expectancy and Personal Science Teaching Efficacy showed different relationships with the predictor variables. Though gains in specific content areas were related to gains in Science Teaching Outcome Expectancy and Personal Science Teaching Efficacy, gains in Personal Science Teaching Efficacy were further modified by the covariates. These results may reflect not only a more complex relationship between content knowledge gain and Personal Science Teaching Efficacy but also the complex nature of the construct. Evaluation of the physics content knowledge tests revealed that the tests were not valid for evaluating 35 of the 37 identified learning objectives. Although the data did not render valid results, it does give insights into possible relationships that may exist given a more stringent investigation with a valid instrument to measure content knowledge gains. In addition, this study demonstrated the importance of considering the likelihood of interactions among a given set of variables and the covariates. The findings also suggest the possible value of considering the psychological factors associated with the change process when planning professional development programs.

Optimal dynamic remapping of parallel computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.; Reynolds, Paul F., Jr.

1987-01-01

A large class of computations are characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. The decision problem was considered regarding the remapping of workload to processors in a parallel computation when the utility of remapping and the future behavior of the workload is uncertain, and phases exhibit stable execution requirements during a given phase, but requirements may change radically between phases. For these problems a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. This problem is treated formally for a probabilistic model of computation with at most two phases. The fundamental problem of balancing the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost was addressed. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to show that the remapping decision policy minimizing the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure. Because the gain may not be predictable, the performance of a heuristic policy that does not require estimnation of the gain is examined. The heuristic method's feasibility is demonstrated by its use on an adaptive fluid dynamics code on a multiprocessor. The results suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change. The results also suggest that this heuristic is applicable to computations with more than two phases.

Gain-Framed Messages Do Not Motivate Sun Protection: A Meta-Analytic Review of Randomized Trials Comparing Gain-Framed and Loss-Framed Appeals for Promoting Skin Cancer Prevention

PubMed Central

O’Keefe, Daniel J.; Wu, Daisy

2012-01-01

Persuading people to undertake actions to prevent skin cancer is an important public health challenge. A number of studies have compared the effectiveness of gain-framed and loss-framed appeals in this domain, often expecting gain-framed appeals to be more persuasive. A meta-analytic review (k = 33, N = 4,168), however, finds no significant difference in the persuasiveness of gain- and loss-framed appeals for encouraging skin cancer prevention. This conclusion is unaffected by differences in the specific protective action advocated or by differences in the kind of outcomes invoked. But the results offer an intimation that men might be more susceptible to framing variations in this domain—with loss-framed appeals potentially having a persuasive advantage. PMID:22829794

Gain-framed messages do not motivate sun protection: a meta-analytic review of randomized trials comparing gain-framed and loss-framed appeals for promoting skin cancer prevention.

PubMed

O'Keefe, Daniel J; Wu, Daisy

2012-06-01

Persuading people to undertake actions to prevent skin cancer is an important public health challenge. A number of studies have compared the effectiveness of gain-framed and loss-framed appeals in this domain, often expecting gain-framed appeals to be more persuasive. A meta-analytic review (k = 33, N = 4,168), however, finds no significant difference in the persuasiveness of gain- and loss-framed appeals for encouraging skin cancer prevention. This conclusion is unaffected by differences in the specific protective action advocated or by differences in the kind of outcomes invoked. But the results offer an intimation that men might be more susceptible to framing variations in this domain--with loss-framed appeals potentially having a persuasive advantage.

The relative persuasiveness of gain- and loss-framed messages for promoting vaccination: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

O'Keefe, Daniel J; Nan, Xiaoli

2012-01-01

Vaccination against disease is a powerful public health tool, and persuading people to be vaccinated is a correspondingly important challenge. A number of studies have compared the effectiveness of gain-framed and loss-framed appeals in this domain, often expecting gain-framed appeals to be more persuasive. A meta-analytic review (k = 32, N = 11,814), however, finds no significant difference in the persuasiveness of gain- and loss-framed appeals for encouraging vaccination. This conclusion is unaffected by differences in the phrasing of the outcomes invoked or by differences in the specific vaccination advocated. But the results contain a hint that parents might be more persuaded to vaccinate their children by loss-framed than by gain-framed appeals. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.

On valuing information in adaptive-management models.

PubMed

Moore, Alana L; McCarthy, Michael A

2010-08-01

Active adaptive management looks at the benefit of using strategies that may be suboptimal in the near term but may provide additional information that will facilitate better management in the future. In many adaptive-management problems that have been studied, the optimal active and passive policies (accounting for learning when designing policies and designing policy on the basis of current best information, respectively) are very similar. This seems paradoxical; when faced with uncertainty about the best course of action, managers should spend very little effort on actively designing programs to learn about the system they are managing. We considered two possible reasons why active and passive adaptive solutions are often similar. First, the benefits of learning are often confined to the particular case study in the modeled scenario, whereas in reality information gained from local studies is often applied more broadly. Second, management objectives that incorporate the variance of an estimate may place greater emphasis on learning than more commonly used objectives that aim to maximize an expected value. We explored these issues in a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, in which the aim was to choose between two options for revegetation. We explicitly incorporated monitoring costs in the model. The value of the terminal rewards and the choice of objective both influenced the difference between active and passive adaptive solutions. Explicitly considering the cost of monitoring provided a different perspective on how the terminal reward and management objective affected learning. The states for which it was optimal to monitor did not always coincide with the states in which active and passive adaptive management differed. Our results emphasize that spending resources on monitoring is only optimal when the expected benefits of the options being considered are similar and when the pay-off for learning about their benefits is large.

Initial evaluation of rectal bleeding in young persons: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Lewis, James D; Brown, Alphonso; Localio, A Russell; Schwartz, J Sanford

2002-01-15

Evaluation of rectal bleeding in young patients is a frequent diagnostic challenge. To determine the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative diagnostic strategies for young patients with rectal bleeding. Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. Probability estimates were based on published medical literature. Cost estimates were based on Medicare reimbursement rates and published medical literature. Persons 25 to 45 years of age with otherwise asymptomatic rectal bleeding. The patient's lifetime. Modified societal perspective. Diagnostic strategies included no evaluation, colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy, barium enema, anoscopy, or any feasible combination of these procedures. Life expectancy and costs. For 35-year-old patients, the no-evaluation strategy yielded the least life expectancy. The incremental cost-effectiveness of flexible sigmoidoscopy compared with no evaluation or with any strategy incorporating anoscopy (followed by further evaluation if no anal disease was found on anoscopy) was less than $5300 per year of life gained. A strategy of flexible sigmoidoscopy plus barium enema yielded the greatest life expectancy, with an incremental cost of $23 918 per additional life-year gained compared with flexible sigmoidoscopy alone. As patient age at presentation of rectal bleeding increased, evaluation of the entire colon became more cost-effective. The incremental cost-effectiveness of flexible sigmoidoscopy plus barium enema compared with colonoscopy was sensitive to estimates of the sensitivity of the tests. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis comparing flexible sigmoidoscopy with anoscopy followed by flexible sigmoidoscopy if needed, the middle 95th percentile of the distribution of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from flexible sigmoidoscopy yielding an increased life expectancy at reduced cost to $52 158 per year of life gained (mean, $11 461 per year of life saved). Evaluation of the colon of persons 25 to 45 years of age with otherwise asymptomatic rectal bleeding increases the life expectancy at a cost comparable to that of colon cancer screening.

Alternative outcomes create biased expectations regarding the received outcome: Evidence from event-related potentials.

PubMed

Marciano, Déborah; Bentin, Shlomo; Deouell, Leon Y

2018-05-01

After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). The FRN and P3 were also sensitive to the value of the alternative outcome, but contrary to our predictions, they were more positive when the alternative outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). As the FRN and P3 are sensitive to expectations, we hypothesized that our findings might result from subjects' biased expectations: subjects might have wrongly believed that a good (bad) alternative outcome signaled a bad (good) received outcome. This hypothesis, coined as the Alternative Omen Effect, was confirmed in parallel in a series of behavioral experiments: people see an illusory negative correlation between the uncorrelated outcomes of choice options (reported in Marciano-Romm et al. (2016)). A challenge for future research will be to disentangle the effects of expectation from those of outcome comparison. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Diffusion of Information on Twitter and the Financial Markets

PubMed Central

Tafti, Ali; Zotti, Ryan; Jank, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Do spikes in Twitter chatter about a firm precede unusual stock market trading activity for that firm? If so, Twitter activity may provide useful information about impending financial market activity in real-time. We study the real-time relationship between chatter on Twitter and the stock trading volume of 96 firms listed on the Nasdaq 100, during 193 days of trading in the period from May 21, 2012 to September 18, 2013. We identify observations featuring firm-specific spikes in Twitter activity, and randomly assign each observation to a ten-minute increment matching on the firm and a number of repeating time indicators. We examine the extent that unusual levels of chatter on Twitter about a firm portend an oncoming surge of trading of its stock within the hour, over and above what would normally be expected for the stock for that time of day and day of week. We also compare the findings from our explanatory model to the predictive power of Tweets. Although we find a compelling and potentially informative real-time relationship between Twitter activity and trading volume, our forecasting exercise highlights how difficult it can be to make use of this information for monetary gain. PMID:27504639

Real-Time Diffusion of Information on Twitter and the Financial Markets.

PubMed

Tafti, Ali; Zotti, Ryan; Jank, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Do spikes in Twitter chatter about a firm precede unusual stock market trading activity for that firm? If so, Twitter activity may provide useful information about impending financial market activity in real-time. We study the real-time relationship between chatter on Twitter and the stock trading volume of 96 firms listed on the Nasdaq 100, during 193 days of trading in the period from May 21, 2012 to September 18, 2013. We identify observations featuring firm-specific spikes in Twitter activity, and randomly assign each observation to a ten-minute increment matching on the firm and a number of repeating time indicators. We examine the extent that unusual levels of chatter on Twitter about a firm portend an oncoming surge of trading of its stock within the hour, over and above what would normally be expected for the stock for that time of day and day of week. We also compare the findings from our explanatory model to the predictive power of Tweets. Although we find a compelling and potentially informative real-time relationship between Twitter activity and trading volume, our forecasting exercise highlights how difficult it can be to make use of this information for monetary gain.

Surgical fellowship training in Canada: What is its current status and is improvement required?

PubMed Central

Nousiainen, Markku T.; Latter, David A.; Backstein, David; Webster, Fiona; Harris, Kenneth A.

2012-01-01

This paper examines current issues concerning surgical fellowship training in Canada. Other than information from a few studies of fellowship training in North America, there are scant data on this subject in the literature. Little is known about the demographic characteristics of those who pursue fellowship training in Canada, what the experiences and expectations are of fellows and their supervisors with respect to the strengths and weaknesses of this level of training, or how this level of education fits in with Canadian undergraduate and postgraduate medical training. We summarize current knowledge about fellowship training in Canada as it pertains to demographic characteristics, finances, work hours, residency training, preparation for clinical and research work and satisfaction with training. Most information on surgical fellowship training comes from the United States. As such, we used information from American studies to supplement the Canadian data. Because a surgical fellowship experience in Canada may be different from that in the United States, we propose that Canadian surgical fellows and their supervisors should be surveyed to gain an understanding of such information. This knowledge could be used to improve surgical fellowship training in Canada. PMID:22269304

Neuroscientific and behavioral genetic information in criminal cases in the Netherlands.

PubMed

de Kogel, C H; Westgeest, E J M C

2015-11-01

In this contribution an empirical approach is used to gain more insight into the relationship between neuroscience and criminal law. The focus is on case law in the Netherlands. Neuroscientific information and techniques have found their way into the courts of the Netherlands. Furthermore, following an Italian case in which a mentally ill offender received a penalty reduction in part because of a 'genetic vulnerability for impulsive aggression', the expectation was expressed that such 'genetic defenses' would appear in the Netherlands too. To assess how neuroscientific and behavioral genetic information are used in criminal justice practice in the Netherlands, we systematically collect Dutch criminal cases in which neuroscientific or behavioral genetic information is introduced. Data and case law examples are presented and discussed. Although cases are diverse, several themes appear, such as prefrontal brain damage in relation to criminal responsibility and recidivism risk, and divergent views of the implications of neurobiological knowledge about addiction for judging criminal responsibility. Whereas in the international 'neurolaw literature' the emphasis is often on imaging techniques, the Dutch findings also illustrate the role of neuropsychological methods in criminal cases. Finally, there appears to be a clear need of practice oriented instruments and guidelines.

Neuroscientific and behavioral genetic information in criminal cases in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

de Kogel, C.H.; Westgeest, E.J.M.C.

2015-01-01

In this contribution an empirical approach is used to gain more insight into the relationship between neuroscience and criminal law. The focus is on case law in the Netherlands. Neuroscientific information and techniques have found their way into the courts of the Netherlands. Furthermore, following an Italian case in which a mentally ill offender received a penalty reduction in part because of a ‘genetic vulnerability for impulsive aggression’, the expectation was expressed that such ‘genetic defenses’ would appear in the Netherlands too. To assess how neuroscientific and behavioral genetic information are used in criminal justice practice in the Netherlands, we systematically collect Dutch criminal cases in which neuroscientific or behavioral genetic information is introduced. Data and case law examples are presented and discussed. Although cases are diverse, several themes appear, such as prefrontal brain damage in relation to criminal responsibility and recidivism risk, and divergent views of the implications of neurobiological knowledge about addiction for judging criminal responsibility. Whereas in the international ‘neurolaw literature’ the emphasis is often on imaging techniques, the Dutch findings also illustrate the role of neuropsychological methods in criminal cases. Finally, there appears to be a clear need of practice oriented instruments and guidelines. PMID:27774213

Responsibility, guilt, and decision under risk.

PubMed

Mancini, Francesco; Gangemi, Amelia

2003-12-01

We hypothesize that individuals' choices (risk-seeking/risk-aversion) depend on moral values and, in particular, on how subjects evaluate themselves as guilty or as victims of a wrong rather than on the descriptions of the outcomes as given in the options and evaluated accordingly as gains or losses (framing effect). People who evaluate themselves as victims are expected to show a risk-seeking preference (context of innocence). People who evaluate themselves as guilty are expected to show a risk-averse preference (context of guilt). Responses of 232 participants to a decision problem were compared in four different conditions involving two-story formats (innocence/guilt) and two-question-options formats (gain/loss). Regardless of the format of the question options, the story format appears to be an important determinant of individuals' preferences.

Need for uniqueness as a mediator of the relationship between face consciousness and status consumption in China.

PubMed

Sun, Gong; Chen, Jun; Li, Jie

2017-10-01

Strong economic development in China has led to a surge in status consumption as a means of gaining face. In Eastern culture, people interpret uniqueness as status distinction rather than separateness or deviance. This type of uniqueness can be used to meet others' expectations and gain social approval. Thus its relationship with face consciousness and status consumption is to be expected. This study investigates 2 hypotheses: (a) Face consciousness has a positive effect on status consumption and (b) Consumer need for uniqueness mediates the relationship between face consciousness and status consumption. Two-hundred and forty-six working respondents in eastern China completed a survey. Regression analysis of the results supported both hypotheses. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

Approximate reversibility in the context of entropy gain, information gain, and complete positivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buscemi, Francesco; Das, Siddhartha; Wilde, Mark M.

2016-06-01

There are several inequalities in physics which limit how well we can process physical systems to achieve some intended goal, including the second law of thermodynamics, entropy bounds in quantum information theory, and the uncertainty principle of quantum mechanics. Recent results provide physically meaningful enhancements of these limiting statements, determining how well one can attempt to reverse an irreversible process. In this paper, we apply and extend these results to give strong enhancements to several entropy inequalities, having to do with entropy gain, information gain, entropic disturbance, and complete positivity of open quantum systems dynamics. Our first result is a remainder term for the entropy gain of a quantum channel. This result implies that a small increase in entropy under the action of a subunital channel is a witness to the fact that the channel's adjoint can be used as a recovery map to undo the action of the original channel. We apply this result to pure-loss, quantum-limited amplifier, and phase-insensitive quantum Gaussian channels, showing how a quantum-limited amplifier can serve as a recovery from a pure-loss channel and vice versa. Our second result regards the information gain of a quantum measurement, both without and with quantum side information. We find here that a small information gain implies that it is possible to undo the action of the original measurement if it is efficient. The result also has operational ramifications for the information-theoretic tasks known as measurement compression without and with quantum side information. Our third result shows that the loss of Holevo information caused by the action of a noisy channel on an input ensemble of quantum states is small if and only if the noise can be approximately corrected on average. We finally establish that the reduced dynamics of a system-environment interaction are approximately completely positive and trace preserving if and only if the data processing inequality holds approximately.

Monetary losses do not loom large in later life: age differences in the framing effect.

PubMed

Mikels, Joseph A; Reed, Andrew E

2009-06-01

Studies of the framing effect indicate that individuals are risk averse for decisions framed as gains but risk seeking for decisions framed as losses. However, findings regarding age-related changes in susceptibility to framing are mixed. Recent work demonstrating age-related decreases in reactivity to anticipated monetary losses, but not gains, suggests that older and younger adults might show equivalent risk aversion for gains but discrepant risk seeking for losses. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a monetary gambling task in which they chose between sure options and risky gambles (the expected outcomes of which were equated). Although both groups demonstrated risk aversion in the gain frame, only younger adults showed risk seeking in the loss frame.

Fault Network Reconstruction using Agglomerative Clustering: Applications to South Californian Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamer, Yavor; Ouillon, Guy; Sornette, Didier; Wössner, Jochen

2014-05-01

We present applications of a new clustering method for fault network reconstruction based on the spatial distribution of seismicity. Unlike common approaches that start from the simplest large scale and gradually increase the complexity trying to explain the small scales, our method uses a bottom-up approach, by an initial sampling of the small scales and then reducing the complexity. The new approach also exploits the location uncertainty associated with each event in order to obtain a more accurate representation of the spatial probability distribution of the seismicity. For a given dataset, we first construct an agglomerative hierarchical cluster (AHC) tree based on Ward's minimum variance linkage. Such a tree starts out with one cluster and progressively branches out into an increasing number of clusters. To atomize the structure into its constitutive protoclusters, we initialize a Gaussian Mixture Modeling (GMM) at a given level of the hierarchical clustering tree. We then let the GMM converge using an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The kernels that become ill defined (less than 4 points) at the end of the EM are discarded. By incrementing the number of initialization clusters (by atomizing at increasingly populated levels of the AHC tree) and repeating the procedure above, we are able to determine the maximum number of Gaussian kernels the structure can hold. The kernels in this configuration constitute our protoclusters. In this setting, merging of any pair will lessen the likelihood (calculated over the pdf of the kernels) but in turn will reduce the model's complexity. The information loss/gain of any possible merging can thus be quantified based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. Similar to an inter-distance matrix, where the matrix element di,j gives the distance between points i and j, we can construct a MDL gain/loss matrix where mi,j gives the information gain/loss resulting from the merging of kernels i and j. Based on this matrix, merging events resulting in MDL gain are performed in descending order until no gainful merging is possible anymore. We envision that the results of this study could lead to a better understanding of the complex interactions within the Californian fault system and hopefully use the acquired insights for earthquake forecasting.

Education and Library Services for Community Information Utilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farquhar, John A.

The concept of "computer utility"--the provision of computing and information service by a utility in the form of a national network to which any person desiring information could gain access--has been gaining interest among the public and among the technical community. This report on planning community information utilities discusses the…

DSN 70-meter antenna microwave optics design and performance improvements. Part 1: Design optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bathker, D. A.; Slobin, S. D.

1989-01-01

The design optimizations associated with the microwave and structural upgrade of the DSN 64-m antennas are discussed. Expected area efficiency/gain performances at S- and X-band are given for both the original 64-m systems and the upgraded 70-m systems, and error estimates are developed. The DSN 70-m Upgrade Project specifications, based on predesign estimates, were 1.4-dB gain at S-band and 1.9-dB at X-band, with no degradation to critical receiving system noise temperatures. The measurements show an S-band gain increase of 1.9 dB and an average increase of 2.1 dB at X-band. The Project also delivered small receiving system noise decreases at both frequency bands. The three DSN 70-m antennas, in the initial state of mechanical adjustment as of the end of calendar year 1988, are performing with very high peak microwave area efficiencies at very nearly the engineering design expectations of 76 percent at S-band and 71 percent at X-band.

26 CFR 1.6041-1 - Return of information as to payments of $600 or more.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... other gains, profits, and income aggregating $600 or more. (ii) Information returns required under other... engaged for gain or profit, but also organizations the activities of which are not for the purpose of gain... circumstances, that person— (i) Performs management or oversight functions in connection with the payment (this...

Autonomous entropy-based intelligent experimental design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malakar, Nabin Kumar

2011-07-01

The aim of this thesis is to explore the application of probability and information theory in experimental design, and to do so in a way that combines what we know about inference and inquiry in a comprehensive and consistent manner. Present day scientific frontiers involve data collection at an ever-increasing rate. This requires that we find a way to collect the most relevant data in an automated fashion. By following the logic of the scientific method, we couple an inference engine with an inquiry engine to automate the iterative process of scientific learning. The inference engine involves Bayesian machine learning techniques to estimate model parameters based upon both prior information and previously collected data, while the inquiry engine implements data-driven exploration. By choosing an experiment whose distribution of expected results has the maximum entropy, the inquiry engine selects the experiment that maximizes the expected information gain. The coupled inference and inquiry engines constitute an autonomous learning method for scientific exploration. We apply it to a robotic arm to demonstrate the efficacy of the method. Optimizing inquiry involves searching for an experiment that promises, on average, to be maximally informative. If the set of potential experiments is described by many parameters, the search involves a high-dimensional entropy space. In such cases, a brute force search method will be slow and computationally expensive. We develop an entropy-based search algorithm, called nested entropy sampling, to select the most informative experiment. This helps to reduce the number of computations necessary to find the optimal experiment. We also extended the method of maximizing entropy, and developed a method of maximizing joint entropy so that it could be used as a principle of collaboration between two robots. This is a major achievement of this thesis, as it allows the information-based collaboration between two robotic units towards a same goal in an automated fashion.

A Highly Sensitive Multi-Element HgCdTe E-APD Detector for IPDA Lidar Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beck, Jeff; Welch, Terry; Mitra, Pradip; Reiff, Kirk; Sun, Xiaoli; Abshire, James

2014-01-01

An HgCdTe electron avalanche photodiode (e-APD) detector has been developed for lidar receivers, one application of which is integrated path differential absorption lidar measurements of such atmospheric trace gases as CO2 and CH4. The HgCdTe APD has a wide, visible to mid-wave-infrared, spectral response, high dynamic range, substantially improved sensitivity, and an expected improvement in operational lifetime. A demonstration sensor-chip assembly consisting of a 4.3 lm cutoff HgCdTe 4 9 4 APD detector array with 80 micrometer pitch pixels and a custom complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor readout integrated circuit was developed. For one typical array the APD gain was 654 at 12 V with corresponding gain normalized dark currents ranging from 1.2 fA to 3.2 fA. The 4 9 4 detector system was characterized at 77 K with a 1.55 micrometer wavelength, 1 microsecond wide, laser pulse. The measured unit gain detector photon conversion efficiency was 91.1%. At 11 V bias the mean measured APD gain at 77 K was 307.8 with sigma/mean uniformity of 1.23%. The average, noise-bandwidth normalized, system noise-equivalent power (NEP) was 1.04 fW/Hz(exp 1/2) with a sigma/mean of 3.8%. The measured, electronics-limited, bandwidth of 6.8 MHz was more than adequate for 1 microsecond pulse detection. The system had an NEP (3 MHz) of 0.4 fW/Hz(exp 1/2) at 12 V APD bias and a linear dynamic range close to 1000. A gain-independent quantum-limited SNR of 80% of full theoretical was indicative of a gain-independent excess noise factor very close to 1.0 and the expected APD mode quantum efficiency.

Upweighting rare favourable alleles increases long-term genetic gain in genomic selection programs.

PubMed

Liu, Huiming; Meuwissen, Theo H E; Sørensen, Anders C; Berg, Peer

2015-03-21

The short-term impact of using different genomic prediction (GP) models in genomic selection has been intensively studied, but their long-term impact is poorly understood. Furthermore, long-term genetic gain of genomic selection is expected to improve by using Jannink's weighting (JW) method, in which rare favourable marker alleles are upweighted in the selection criterion. In this paper, we extend the JW method by including an additional parameter to decrease the emphasis on rare favourable alleles over the time horizon, with the purpose of further improving the long-term genetic gain. We call this new method dynamic weighting (DW). The paper explores the long-term impact of different GP models with or without weighting methods. Different selection criteria were tested by simulating a population of 500 animals with truncation selection of five males and 50 females. Selection criteria included unweighted and weighted genomic estimated breeding values using the JW or DW methods, for which ridge regression (RR) and Bayesian lasso (BL) were used to estimate marker effects. The impacts of these selection criteria were compared under three genetic architectures, i.e. varying numbers of QTL for the trait and for two time horizons of 15 (TH15) or 40 (TH40) generations. For unweighted GP, BL resulted in up to 21.4% higher long-term genetic gain and 23.5% lower rate of inbreeding under TH40 than RR. For weighted GP, DW resulted in 1.3 to 5.5% higher long-term gain compared to unweighted GP. JW, however, showed a 6.8% lower long-term genetic gain relative to unweighted GP when BL was used to estimate the marker effects. Under TH40, both DW and JW obtained significantly higher genetic gain than unweighted GP. With DW, the long-term genetic gain was increased by up to 30.8% relative to unweighted GP, and also increased by 8% relative to JW, although at the expense of a lower short-term gain. Irrespective of the number of QTL simulated, BL is superior to RR in maintaining genetic variance and therefore results in higher long-term genetic gain. Moreover, DW is a promising method with which high long-term genetic gain can be expected within a fixed time frame.

‘I did try and point out about his dignity’: a qualitative narrative study of patients and carers’ experiences and expectations of junior doctors

PubMed Central

Kostov, Camille E; Rees, Charlotte E; Gormley, Gerard J

2018-01-01

Objectives For many years, the voice of patients has been understood as a critical element for the improvement of care quality in healthcare settings. How well medical graduates are prepared for clinical practice is an important question, but one that has rarely been considered from patient and public perspectives. We aimed to fill this gap by exploring patients and carers’ experiences and expectations of junior doctors. Design This comprises part of a wider study on UK medical graduates’ preparedness for practice. A qualitative narrative methodology was used, comprising four individual and six group interviews. Participants 25 patients and carers from three UK countries. Analysis Data were transcribed, anonymised and analysed using framework analysis. Main results We identified three themes pertinent to answering our research question: (1) sources of knowledge (sources of information contributing to patients and carers’ perceptions of junior doctors’ impacting on expectations); (2) desires for student/trainee learning (experiences and expectations of medical training); and (3) future doctors (experiences and expectations of junior doctors). We also highlight metaphorical talk and humour, where relevant, in the quotes presented to give deeper insights into participants’ perspectives of the issues. Participants focused on personal and interpersonal aspects of being a doctor, such as respect and communication. There was a strong assertion that medical graduates needed to gain direct experience with a diverse range of patients to encourage individualised care. Participants narrated their experiences of having symptoms ignored and attributed to an existing diagnosis (‘diagnostic overshadowing’) and problems relating to confidentiality. Conclusions Our findings support the view that patients and carers have clear expectations about junior doctors, and that patient views are important for preparing junior doctors for practice. There is a necessity for greater dialogue between patients, doctors and educators to clarify expectations and confidentiality issues around patient care. PMID:29358422

Foundational concepts and underlying theories for majors in "biochemistry and molecular biology".

PubMed

Tansey, John T; Baird, Teaster; Cox, Michael M; Fox, Kristin M; Knight, Jennifer; Sears, Duane; Bell, Ellis

2013-01-01

Over the past two years, through an NSF RCN UBE grant, the ASBMB has held regional workshops for faculty members and science educators from around the country that focused on identifying: 1) core principles of biochemistry and molecular biology, 2) essential concepts and underlying theories from physics, chemistry, and mathematics, and 3) foundational skills that undergraduate majors in biochemistry and molecular biology must understand to complete their major coursework. Using information gained from these workshops, as well as from the ASBMB accreditation working group and the NSF Vision and Change report, the Core Concepts working group has developed a consensus list of learning outcomes and objectives based on five foundational concepts (evolution, matter and energy transformation, homeostasis, information flow, and macromolecular structure and function) that represent the expected conceptual knowledge base for undergraduate degrees in biochemistry and molecular biology. This consensus will aid biochemistry and molecular biology educators in the development of assessment tools for the new ASBMB recommended curriculum. © 2013 by The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

[National Database of Genotypes--ethical and legal issues].

PubMed

Franková, Vera; Tesínová, Jolana; Brdicka, Radim

2011-01-01

National Database of Genotypes--ethical and legal issues The aim of the project National Database of Genotypes is to outline structure and rules for the database operation collecting information about genotypes of individual persons. The database should be used entirely for health care. Its purpose is to enable physicians to gain quick and easy access to the information about persons requiring specialized care due to their genetic constitution. In the future, another introduction of new genetic tests into the clinical practice can be expected thus the database of genotypes facilitates substantial financial savings by exclusion of duplicates of the expensive genetic testing. Ethical questions connected with the creating and functioning of such database concern mainly privacy protection, confidentiality of personal sensitive data, protection of database from misuse, consent with participation and public interests. Due to necessity of correct interpretation by qualified professional (= clinical geneticist), particular categorization of genetic data within the database is discussed. The function of proposed database has to be governed in concordance with the Czech legislation together with solving ethical problems.

Anticipating and Training the Physician of the Future: The Importance of Caring in an Age of Artificial Intelligence.

PubMed

Johnston, S Claiborne

2018-02-13

Artificial intelligence and other forms of information technology are only just beginning to change the practice of medicine. The pace of change is expected to accelerate as tools improve and as demands for analyzing a rapidly growing body of knowledge and array of data increase. The medical students of today will practice in a world where information technology is sophisticated and omnipresent. In this world, the tasks of memorization and analysis will be less important to them as practicing physicians. On the other hand, the non-analytical, humanistic aspects of medicine-most importantly, the art of caring-will remain a critical function of the physician, and facility with improving systems of care will be required. Communication, empathy, shared decision making, leadership, team building, and creativity are all skills that will continue to gain importance for physicians. These skills should be further prioritized in medical school curricula to produce an even more effective physician for the future.

Strategies to intervene on causal systems are adaptively selected.

PubMed

Coenen, Anna; Rehder, Bob; Gureckis, Todd M

2015-06-01

How do people choose interventions to learn about causal systems? Here, we considered two possibilities. First, we test an information sampling model, information gain, which values interventions that can discriminate between a learner's hypotheses (i.e. possible causal structures). We compare this discriminatory model to a positive testing strategy that instead aims to confirm individual hypotheses. Experiment 1 shows that individual behavior is described best by a mixture of these two alternatives. In Experiment 2 we find that people are able to adaptively alter their behavior and adopt the discriminatory model more often after experiencing that the confirmatory strategy leads to a subjective performance decrement. In Experiment 3, time pressure leads to the opposite effect of inducing a change towards the simpler positive testing strategy. These findings suggest that there is no single strategy that describes how intervention decisions are made. Instead, people select strategies in an adaptive fashion that trades off their expected performance and cognitive effort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pharmacoeconomics of ruxolitinib therapy in patients with myelofibrosis.

PubMed

Vandewalle, Björn; Andreozzi, Valeska; Almeida, João; Félix, Jorge

2016-01-01

Overall survival (OS) and other important clinical trial end-points seem increasingly more elusive in supporting rapid and efficient incorporation of innovative cancer drugs in clinical practice. This study proposes a clinical trial based pharmacoeconomic framework to assess the therapeutic and economic value of ruxolitinib in patients with intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. Individual patient level 144 week follow-up data from the COMFORT-II trial was used to account for the crossover effect on overall survival. Lifetime treatment benefits and costs were estimated considering detailed patterns of both ruxolitinib dose adjustments and blood transfusion needs. The authors estimate a 3.3 years increment in life expectancy (HR = 0.30; 95% CI = 0.17-0.55; p-value <0.001) and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €40,000 per life year gained with the use of ruxolitinib. This study also demonstrates how valuable information from clinical trials can be used to support informed decisions about the early incorporation of innovative drugs.

Distinguishing between direct and indirect directional couplings in large oscillator networks: Partial or non-partial phase analyses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rings, Thorsten; Lehnertz, Klaus

2016-09-01

We investigate the relative merit of phase-based methods for inferring directional couplings in complex networks of weakly interacting dynamical systems from multivariate time-series data. We compare the evolution map approach and its partialized extension to each other with respect to their ability to correctly infer the network topology in the presence of indirect directional couplings for various simulated experimental situations using coupled model systems. In addition, we investigate whether the partialized approach allows for additional or complementary indications of directional interactions in evolving epileptic brain networks using intracranial electroencephalographic recordings from an epilepsy patient. For such networks, both direct and indirect directional couplings can be expected, given the brain's connection structure and effects that may arise from limitations inherent to the recording technique. Our findings indicate that particularly in larger networks (number of nodes ≫10 ), the partialized approach does not provide information about directional couplings extending the information gained with the evolution map approach.

Hydrologic applications of weather radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Dong-Jun; Habib, Emad; Andrieu, Hervé; Morin, Efrat

2015-12-01

By providing high-resolution quantitative precipitation information (QPI), weather radars have revolutionized hydrology in the last two decades. With the aid of GIS technology, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) have enabled routine high-resolution hydrologic modeling in many parts of the world. Given the ever-increasing need for higher-resolution hydrologic and water resources information for a wide range of applications, one may expect that the use of weather radar will only grow. Despite the tremendous progress, a number of significant scientific, technological and engineering challenges remain to realize its potential. New challenges are also emerging as new areas of applications are discovered, explored and pursued. The purpose of this special issue is to provide the readership with some of the latest advances, lessons learned, experiences gained, and science issues and challenges related to hydrologic applications of weather radar. The special issue features 20 contributions on various topics which reflect the increasing diversity as well as the areas of focus in radar hydrology today. The contributions may be grouped as follows:

Physical security and IT convergence: Managing the cyber-related risks.

PubMed

McCreight, Tim; Leece, Doug

The convergence of physical security devices into the corporate network is increasing, due to the perceived economic benefits and efficiencies gained from using one enterprise network. Bringing these two networks together is not without risk. Physical devices like closed circuit television cameras (CCTV), card access readers, and heating, ventilation and air conditioning controllers (HVAC) are typically not secured to the standards we expect for corporate computer networks. These devices can pose significant risks to the corporate network by creating new avenues to exploit vulnerabilities in less-than-secure implementations of physical systems. The ASIS Information Technology Security Council (ITSC) developed a white paper describing steps organisations can take to reduce the risks this convergence can pose, and presented these concepts at the 2015 ASIS/ISC2 Congress in Anaheim, California. 1 This paper expands upon the six characteristics described by ITSC, and provides business continuity planners with information on how to apply these recommendations to physical security devices that use the corporate network.

Motor planning under temporal uncertainty is suboptimal when the gain function is asymmetric

PubMed Central

Ota, Keiji; Shinya, Masahiro; Kudo, Kazutoshi

2015-01-01

For optimal action planning, the gain/loss associated with actions and the variability in motor output should both be considered. A number of studies make conflicting claims about the optimality of human action planning but cannot be reconciled due to their use of different movements and gain/loss functions. The disagreement is possibly because of differences in the experimental design and differences in the energetic cost of participant motor effort. We used a coincident timing task, which requires decision making with constant energetic cost, to test the optimality of participant's timing strategies under four configurations of the gain function. We compared participant strategies to an optimal timing strategy calculated from a Bayesian model that maximizes the expected gain. We found suboptimal timing strategies under two configurations of the gain function characterized by asymmetry, in which higher gain is associated with higher risk of zero gain. Participants showed a risk-seeking strategy by responding closer than optimal to the time of onset/offset of zero gain. Meanwhile, there was good agreement of the model with actual performance under two configurations of the gain function characterized by symmetry. Our findings show that human ability to make decisions that must reflect uncertainty in one's own motor output has limits that depend on the configuration of the gain function. PMID:26236227

Remote Control of Intact Mammalian Brain Circuits Using Pulsed Ultrasound

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-31

our work is that we have begun to gain an understanding of what properties of ultrasound waveforms make them effective for neuromodulation . The next...our work is that we have begun to gain an understanding of what properties of ultrasound waveforms make them effective for neuromodulation . The next...ultrasound for neuromodulation based in part upon our advancements made. We expect an additional one or two manuscripts will be published in the

Preparing for Multiple Births

MedlinePlus

... problem. What Should I Eat if I'm Pregnant With Multiples? If you're pregnant with multiples, ... Much Weight Should I Gain if I'm Pregnant With Multiples? Mothers carrying multiples are expected to ...

Measuring utilities of severe facial disfigurement and composite tissue allotransplantation of the face in patients with severe face and neck burns from the perspectives of the general public, medical experts and patients.

PubMed

Chuback, Jennifer; Yarascavitch, Blake; Yarascavitch, Alec; Kaur, Manraj Nirmal; Martin, Stuart; Thoma, Achilleas

2015-11-01

In an otherwise healthy patient with severe facial disfigurement secondary to burns, composite tissue allotransplantation (CTA) results in life-long immunosuppressive therapy and its associated risk. In this study, we assess the net gain of CTA of face (in terms of utilities) from the perspectives of patient, general public and medical expert, in comparison to the risks. Using the standard gamble (SG) and time-trade off (TTO) techniques, utilities were obtained from members of general public, patients with facial burns, and medical experts (n=25 for each group). The gain (or loss) in utility and quality adjusted life years (QALY) were estimated using face-to-face interviews. A sensitivity analysis using variable life expectancy was conducted. From the patient perspective, severe facial burn was associated with a health utility value of 0.53, and 27.1 QALYs as calculated by SG, and a health utility value of 0.57, and 28.9 QALYs as calculated by TTO. In comparison, CTA of the face was associated with a health utility value of 0.64, and 32.3 QALYs (or 18.2 QALYs years per sensitivity analysis) as calculated by SG, and a health utility value of 0.67, and 34.1 QALYs (or 19.2QALYs per sensitivity analysis) as calculated by TTO. However, a loss of 8.9 QALYs (by SG method) to 9.5 QALYs (by TTO method) was observed when the life expectancy was decreased in the sensitivity analysis. Similar results were obtained from the general population and medical experts perspectives. We found that severe facial disfigurement is associated with a significant reduction in the health-related quality of life, and CTA has the potential to improve this. Further, we found that a trade-off exists between the life expectancy and gain in the QALYs, i.e. if life expectancy following CTA of face is reduced, the gain in QALY is also diminished. This trade-off needs to be validated in future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Development and Preliminary Validation of a Comprehensive Questionnaire to Assess Women’s Knowledge and Perception of the Current Weight Gain Guidelines during Pregnancy

PubMed Central

Ockenden, Holly; Gunnell, Katie; Giles, Audrey; Nerenberg, Kara; Goldfield, Gary; Manyanga, Taru; Adamo, Kristi

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate an electronic questionnaire, the Electronic Maternal Health Survey (EMat Health Survey), related to women’s knowledge and perceptions of the current gestational weight gain guidelines (GWG), as well as pregnancy-related health behaviours. Constructs addressed within the questionnaire include self-efficacy, locus of control, perceived barriers, and facilitators of physical activity and diet, outcome expectations, social environment and health practices. Content validity was examined using an expert panel (n = 7) and pilot testing items in a small sample (n = 5) of pregnant women and recent mothers (target population). Test re-test reliability was assessed among a sample (n = 71) of the target population. Reliability scores were calculated for all constructs (r and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC)), those with a score of >0.5 were considered acceptable. The content validity of the questionnaire reflects the degree to which all relevant components of excessive GWG risk in women are included. Strong test-retest reliability was found in the current study, indicating that responses to the questionnaire were reliable in this population. The EMat Health Survey adds to the growing body of literature on maternal health and gestational weight gain by providing the first comprehensive questionnaire that can be self-administered and remotely accessed. The questionnaire can be completed in 15–25 min and collects useful data on various social determinants of health and GWG as well as associated health behaviours. This online tool may assist researchers by providing them with a platform to collect useful information in developing and tailoring interventions to better support women in achieving recommended weight gain targets in pregnancy. PMID:27916921

Dissociable effects of basolateral amygdala lesions on decision making biases in rats when loss or gain is emphasized.

PubMed

Tremblay, Melanie; Cocker, Paul J; Hosking, Jay G; Zeeb, Fiona D; Rogers, Robert D; Winstanley, Catharine A

2014-12-01

Individuals switch from risk seeking to risk aversion when mathematically identical options are described in terms of loss versus gains, as exemplified in the reflection and framing effects. Determining the neurobiology underlying such cognitive biases could inform our understanding of decision making in health and disease. Although reports vary, data using human subjects have implicated the amygdala in such biases. Animal models enable more detailed investigation of neurobiological mechanisms. We therefore tested whether basolateral amygdala (BLA) lesions would affect risk preference for gains or losses in rats. Choices in both paradigms were always between options of equal expected value-a guaranteed outcome, or the 50:50 chance of double or nothing. In the loss-chasing task, most rats exhibited strong risk seeking preferences, gambling at the risk of incurring double the penalty, regardless of the size of the guaranteed loss. In the betting task, the majority of animals were equivocal in their choice, irrespective of bet size; however, a wager-sensitive subgroup progressively shifted away from the uncertain option as the bet size increased, which is reminiscent of risk aversion. BLA lesions increased preference for the smaller guaranteed loss in the loss-chasing task, without affecting choice on the betting task, which is indicative of reduced risk seeking for losses, but intact risk aversion for gains. These data support the hypothesis that the amygdala plays a more prominent role in choice biases related to losses. Given the importance of the amygdala in representing negative affect, the aversive emotional reaction to loss, rather than aberrant estimations of probability or loss magnitude, may underlie risk seeking for losses.

A cost effectiveness analysis of maintenance cognitive stimulation therapy (MCST) for people with dementia: examining the influence of cognitive ability and living arrangements.

PubMed

Brown, Heather; D'Amico, Francesco; Knapp, Martin; Orrell, Martin; Rehill, Amritpal; Vale, Luke; Robinson, Louise

2018-03-12

Identify if cost-effectiveness of Maintenance Cognitive Simulation Therapy (MCST) differs by type of living arrangement and cognitive ability of the person with dementia. Next, a value of information analysis is performed to inform decisions about future research. Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis applying seemingly unrelated regressions using data from a multicentre RCT of MCST versus treatment as usual in a population which had already received 7 weeks of CST for dementia (ISRCTN: 26286067). The findings from the cost-effectiveness analysis are used to inform a value of information analysis. The results are dependent upon how quality adjusted life years (QALYs) are measured. MCST might be cost-effective compared to standard treatment for those who live alone and those with higher levels of cognitive functioning. If a further RCT was to be conducted for this sub-group of the population, value of information analysis suggests a total sample of 48 complete cases for both sub-groups would be required for a two-arm trial. The expected net gain of conducting this future research is £920 million. Preliminary results suggest that MCST may be most cost-efficient for people with dementia who live alone and/or who have higher cognition. Future research in this area is needed.

Earlier saccades to task-relevant targets irrespective of relative gain between peripheral and foveal information.

PubMed

Wolf, Christian; Schütz, Alexander C

2017-06-01

Saccades bring objects of interest onto the fovea for high-acuity processing. Saccades to rewarded targets show shorter latencies that correlate negatively with expected motivational value. Shorter latencies are also observed when the saccade target is relevant for a perceptual discrimination task. Here we tested whether saccade preparation is equally influenced by informational value as it is by motivational value. We defined informational value as the probability that information is task-relevant times the ratio between postsaccadic foveal and presaccadic peripheral discriminability. Using a gaze-contingent display, we independently manipulated peripheral and foveal discriminability of the saccade target. Latencies of saccades with perceptual task were reduced by 36 ms in general, but they were not modulated by the information saccades provide (Experiments 1 and 2). However, latencies showed a clear negative linear correlation with the probability that the target is task-relevant (Experiment 3). We replicated that the facilitation by a perceptual task is spatially specific and not due to generally heightened arousal (Experiment 4). Finally, the facilitation only emerged when the perceptual task is in the visual but not in the auditory modality (Experiment 5). Taken together, these results suggest that saccade latencies are not equally modulated by informational value as by motivational value. The facilitation by a perceptual task only arises when task-relevant visual information is foveated, irrespective of whether the foveation is useful or not.

Postpartum weight loss and infant feeding.

PubMed

Haiek, L N; Kramer, M S; Ciampi, A; Tirado, R

2001-01-01

Women are often advised that lactation accelerates loss of the excess weight gained during pregnancy, but the evidence underlying this advice is sparse and conflicting. To help fill this gap, we assessed differences in the rate of postpartum weight loss in the first 9 months postpartum according to method of infant feeding. Two hundred thirty-six women attending two public health clinics in Montreal were weighed in one to four routine infant immunization visits up to the 9th postpartum month. After each weighing, we administered a telephone questionnaire assessing the method of infant feeding (predominantly breast-feeding, mixed-feeding, or predominantly bottle-feeding) and potential confounders. Data were analyzed using unbalanced multivariate repeated measures linear regression. Infant feeding was not associated with statistically significant differences in the rate of weight loss. Gestational weight gain, postpartum smoking, and maternal birthplace were important predictors of postpartum weight change. Although our results cannot exclude an effect of more exclusive or more prolonged breast-feeding, breast-feeding as commonly practiced does not appear to influence the rate of postpartum weight loss. This information should be useful in counseling new or prospective mothers and in avoiding unrealistic expectations.

Retail food environments in Canada: Maximizing the impact of research, policy and practice.

PubMed

Minaker, Leia M

2016-06-09

Retail food environments are gaining national and international attention as important determinants of population dietary intake. Communities across Canada are beginning to discuss and implement programs and policies to create supportive retail food environments. Three considerations should drive the selection of food environment assessment methods: relevance (What is the problem, and how is it related to dietary outcomes?); resources (What human, time and financial resources are required to undertake an assessment?); and response (How will policy-makers find meaning out of and act on the information gained through the food environment assessment?). Ultimately, food environment assessments should be conducted in the context of stakeholder buy-in and multi-sectoral partnerships, since food environment solutions require multi-sectoral action. Partnerships between public health actors and the food and beverage industry can be challenging, especially when mandates are not aligned. Clarifying the motivations, expectations and roles of all stakeholders takes time but is important if the impact of food environment research, policy and practice is to be maximized. The articles contained in this special supplementary issue describe ongoing food environments research across Canada and fill some of the important gaps in the current body of Canadian food environments literature.

Altered behavioral and neural responsiveness to counterfactual gains in the elderly.

PubMed

Tobia, Michael J; Guo, Rong; Gläscher, Jan; Schwarze, Ulrike; Brassen, Stefanie; Büchel, Christian; Obermayer, Klaus; Sommer, Tobias

2016-06-01

Counterfactual information processing refers to the consideration of events that did not occur in comparison to those actually experienced, in order to determine optimal actions, and can be formulated as computational learning signals, referred to as fictive prediction errors. Decision making and the neural circuitry for counterfactual processing are altered in healthy elderly adults. This experiment investigated age differences in neural systems for decision making with knowledge of counterfactual outcomes. Two groups of healthy adult participants, young (N = 30; ages 19-30 years) and elderly (N = 19; ages 65-80 years), were scanned with fMRI during 240 trials of a strategic sequential investment task in which a particular strategy of differentially weighting counterfactual gains and losses during valuation is associated with more optimal performance. Elderly participants earned significantly less than young adults, differently weighted counterfactual consequences and exploited task knowledge, and exhibited altered activity in a fronto-striatal circuit while making choices, compared to young adults. The degree to which task knowledge was exploited was positively correlated with modulation of neural activity by expected value in the vmPFC for young adults, but not in the elderly. These findings demonstrate that elderly participants' poor task performance may be related to different counterfactual processing.

Introducing e-learning/teaching in a physiology course for medical students: acceptance by students and subjective effect on learning.

PubMed

Felder, E; Fauler, M; Geiler, S

2013-12-01

Retrieval of information has substantially changed within the last two decades. Naturally, this has also affected learning/teaching techniques, and methods that are commonly referred to as "e-learning" have become an important part in modern education. Institutions have to decide if (and how) to implement this new form of teaching but face the problem that little subject-specific research has been published for different teaching modes and methods. The present study compares a course module of the physiology laboratory course for medical students in the preclinical phase before and after the introduction of computer-aided course instructions (CACI). Students were provided with an online questionnaire containing Likert items evaluating workspace redesign, acceptance of course instructions, incentive to actively participate in the course, and subjective gain of knowledge. CACI was clearly preferred over the previously used paper workbook. However, the questionnaire also revealed that the gain in knowledge, as subjectively perceived by the students, had not improved, which is in agreement with several studies that neglected a beneficial effect of e-learning on learning success. We conclude that the CACI meet today's student's expectations and that introducing this system seems justified from this perspective.

Future healthy life expectancy among older adults in the US: a forecast based on cohort smoking and obesity history.

PubMed

Cao, Bochen

2016-01-01

In the past three decades, the elderly population in the United States experienced increase in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (LE(ND)), but decrease in life expectancy with disability (LE(D)). Smoking and obesity are two major risk factors that had negative impacts on these trends. While smoking prevalence continues to decline in recent decades, obesity prevalence has been growing and is currently at a high level. This study aims to forecast the healthy life expectancy for older adults aged 55 to 85 in the US from 2011 to 2040, in relation to their smoking and obesity history. First, population-level mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and individual-level disability data from the US National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to estimate the transition rates between different health states from 1982 to 2010, using a multi-state life table (MSLT) model. Second, the estimated transition rates were fitted and projected up to 2040, using a modified Lee-Carter model that incorporates cohort smoking and obesity history from NHIS. Mortality and morbidity for both sexes will continue to decline in the next decades. Relative to 2010, men are expected to have 3.2 years gain in LE(ND) and 0.8 years loss in LE(D). For women, there will be 1.8 years gain in LE(ND) and 0.8 years loss in LE(D). By 2040, men and women are expected to spend respectively 80 % and 75 % of their remaining life expectancy between 55 and 85 disability-free. Smoking and obesity have independent negative impacts on both the survival and disability of the US older population in the coming decades, and are responsible for the present and future gender disparity in mortality and morbidity. Overall, the US older population is expected to enjoy sustained health improvements and compression of disability, largely due to decline in smoking.

CONDITIONS FOR CSR MICROBUNCHING GAIN SUPPRESSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsai, Cheng Ying; Douglas, David R.; Li, Rui

The coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) of a high brightness electron beam traversing a series of dipoles, such as transport arcs, may result in phase space degradation. On one hand, the CSR can perturb electron transverse motion in dispersive regions along the beamline, causing emittance growth. On the other hand, the CSR effect on the longitudinal beam dynamics could result in microbunching gain enhancement. For transport arcs, several schemes have been proposed* to suppress the CSR-induced emittance growth. Similarly, several scenarios have been introduced** to suppress CSR-induced microbunching gain, which however mostly aim for linac-based machines. In this paper we trymore » to provide sufficient conditions for suppression of CSR-induced microbunching gain along a transport arc, analogous to*. Several example lattices are presented, with the relevant microbunching analyses carried out by our semi-analytical Vlasov solver***. The simulation results show that lattices satisfying the proposed conditions indeed have microbunching gain suppressed. We expect this analysis can shed light on lattice design approach that could suppress the CSR-induced microbunching gain.« less

Assessing predation risk: optimal behaviour and rules of thumb.

PubMed

Welton, Nicky J; McNamara, John M; Houston, Alasdair I

2003-12-01

We look at a simple model in which an animal makes behavioural decisions over time in an environment in which all parameters are known to the animal except predation risk. In the model there is a trade-off between gaining information about predation risk and anti-predator behaviour. All predator attacks lead to death for the prey, so that the prey learns about predation risk by virtue of the fact that it is still alive. We show that it is not usually optimal to behave as if the current unbiased estimate of the predation risk is its true value. We consider two different ways to model reproduction; in the first scenario the animal reproduces throughout its life until it dies, and in the second scenario expected reproductive success depends on the level of energy reserves the animal has gained by some point in time. For both of these scenarios we find results on the form of the optimal strategy and give numerical examples which compare optimal behaviour with behaviour under simple rules of thumb. The numerical examples suggest that the value of the optimal strategy over the rules of thumb is greatest when there is little current information about predation risk, learning is not too costly in terms of predation, and it is energetically advantageous to learn about predation. We find that for the model and parameters investigated, a very simple rule of thumb such as 'use the best constant control' performs well.

Hospital consolidation outlook: surviving in a tough economy.

PubMed

Myers, Chris; Lineen, Jason

2009-11-01

The rapid hospital consolidation activity of the late 1990s has tapered off, but it's expected to pick up again. The reasons for hospital consolidation have shifted from gaining leverage with payers to achieving cost savings and operating efficiencies to survive in the market. The hospital industry can expect to undergo more profound structural and organizational changes in the decade ahead than it did in the past decade.

Expectancy of Success, Subjective Task-Value, and Message Frame in the Appraisal of Value-Promoting Messages Made Prior to a High-Stakes Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Putwain, David W.; Symes, Wendy

2016-01-01

Previous research has examined how subjective task-value and expectancy of success influence the appraisal of value-promoting messages used by teachers prior to high-stakes examinations. The aim of this study was to examine whether message-frame (gain or loss-framed messages) also influences the appraisal of value-promoting messages. Two hundred…

Student effort expectations and their learning in first-year introductory physics: A case study in Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wutchana, U.; Emarat, N.

2011-06-01

The Maryland Physics Expectations (MPEX) survey was designed to probe students’ expectations about their understanding of the process of learning physics and the structure of physics knowledge—cognitive expectations. This survey was administered to first-year university students in Thailand in the first semester of an introductory calculus-based physics course during academic years 2007 and 2008, to assess their expectations at the beginning of the course. The precourse MPEX results were compared and correlated with two separate measures of student learning: (1) individual students’ normalized gains from pre and post Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE) results, which measure students’ conceptual understanding, and (2) student’s scores on the final exam, which measure their more general problem-solving ability. The results showed a significant positive correlation between their overall MPEX score and five of the six MPEX cluster scores, with their normalized learning gains on the FMCE for both academic years. The results also showed significant positive correlations between student MPEX scores and their final exam scores for the overall MPEX score and all MPEX cluster scores except for the effort cluster. We interviewed two groups of five students each, one group with small favorable scores on the precourse MPEX effort cluster and one with high favorable scores on the precourse MPEX effort cluster, to see how the students’ learning efforts compared with their MPEX results. We concluded from the interviews that what the students think or expect about the MPEX effort involved in learning physics does not match what they actually do.

The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

2017-07-01

Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making styles and promote deliberative thinking processes to mitigate the long-term negative consequences of IGD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Reflecting the real value of health care resources in modelling and cost-effectiveness studies-The example of viral load informed differentiated care.

PubMed

Revill, Paul; Walker, Simon; Cambiano, Valentina; Phillips, Andrew; Sculpher, Mark J

2018-01-01

The WHO HIV Treatment Guidelines suggest routine viral-load monitoring can be used to differentiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery and reduce the frequency of clinic visits for patients stable on ART. This recommendation was informed by economic analysis that showed the approach is very likely to be cost-effective, even in the most resource constrained of settings. The health benefits were shown to be modest but the costs of introducing and scaling up viral load monitoring can be offset by anticipated reductions in the costs of clinic visits, due to these being less frequent for many patients. The cost-effectiveness of introducing viral-load informed differentiated care depends upon whether cost reductions are possible if the number of clinic visits is reduced and/or how freed clinic capacity is used for alternative priorities. Where freed resources, either physical or financial, generate large health gains (e.g. if committed to patients failing ART or to other high value health care interventions), the benefits of differentiated care are expected to be high; if however these freed physical resources are already under-utilized or financial resources are used less efficiently and would not be put to as beneficial an alternative use, the policy may not be cost-effective. The implication is that the use of conventional unit costs to value resources may not well reflect the latter's value in contributing to health improvement. Analyses intended to inform resource allocated decisions in a number of settings may therefore have to be interpreted with due consideration to local context. In this paper we present methods of how economic analyses can reflect the real value of health care resources rather than simply applying their unit costs. The analyses informing the WHO Guidelines are re-estimated by implementing scenarios using this framework, informing how differentiated care can be prioritized to generate greatest gains in population health. The findings have important implications for how economic analyses should be undertaken and reported in HIV and other disease areas. Results provide guidance on conditions under which viral load informed differentiated care will more likely prove to be cost effective when implemented.

Implications of Measurement Assay Type in Design of HIV Experiments.

PubMed

Cannon, LaMont; Jagarapu, Aditya; Vargas-Garcia, Cesar A; Piovoso, Michael J; Zurakowski, Ryan

2017-12-01

Time series measurements of circular viral episome (2-LTR) concentrations enable indirect quantification of persistent low-level Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) replication in patients on Integrase-Inhibitor intensified Combined Antiretroviral Therapy (cART). In order to determine the magnitude of these low level infection events, blood has to be drawn from a patients at a frequency and volume that is strictly regulated by the Institutional Review Board (IRB). Once the blood is drawn, the 2-LTR concentration is determined by quantifying the amount of HIV DNA present in the sample via a PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) assay. Real time quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR) is a widely used method of performing PCR; however, a newer droplet digital Polymerase Chain Reaction (ddPCR) method has been shown to provide more accurate quantification of DNA. Using a validated model of HIV viral replication, this paper demonstrates the importance of considering DNA quantification assay type when optimizing experiment design conditions. Experiments are optimized using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to locate a family of suboptimal sample schedules which yield the highest fitness. Fitness is defined as the expected information gained in the experiment, measured by the Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) between the prior and posterior distributions of the model parameters. We compare the information content of the optimized schedules to uniform schedules as well as two clinical schedules implemented by researchers at UCSF and the University of Melbourne. This work shows that there is a significantly greater gain information in experiments using a ddPCR assay vs. a qPCR assay and that certain experiment design considerations should be taken when using either assay.

Efficient Bayesian experimental design for contaminant source identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.

2013-12-01

In this study, an efficient full Bayesian approach is developed for the optimal sampling well location design and source parameter identification of groundwater contaminants. An information measure, i.e., the relative entropy, is employed to quantify the information gain from indirect concentration measurements in identifying unknown source parameters such as the release time, strength and location. In this approach, the sampling location that gives the maximum relative entropy is selected as the optimal one. Once the sampling location is determined, a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate unknown source parameters. In both the design and estimation, the contaminant transport equation is required to be solved many times to evaluate the likelihood. To reduce the computational burden, an interpolation method based on the adaptive sparse grid is utilized to construct a surrogate for the contaminant transport. The approximated likelihood can be evaluated directly from the surrogate, which greatly accelerates the design and estimation process. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated through numerical case studies. Compared with the traditional optimal design, which is based on the Gaussian linear assumption, the method developed in this study can cope with arbitrary nonlinearity. It can be used to assist in groundwater monitor network design and identification of unknown contaminant sources. Contours of the expected information gain. The optimal observing location corresponds to the maximum value. Posterior marginal probability densities of unknown parameters, the thick solid black lines are for the designed location. For comparison, other 7 lines are for randomly chosen locations. The true values are denoted by vertical lines. It is obvious that the unknown parameters are estimated better with the desinged location.

Next of kin's experiences of information and responsibility during their older relatives' care transitions from hospital to municipal health care.

PubMed

Rustad, Else Cathrine; Seiger Cronfalk, Berit; Furnes, Bodil; Dysvik, Elin

2017-04-01

To gain an understanding of how next of kin experience the transition of their older relatives from hospital to municipal health care. During the care transition of their older relatives, next of kin experience a period of ill-defined roles and expectations. Successful transition lays the ground for postdischarge treatment and care, in which next of kin have important roles. A descriptive, exploratory design was used to gain a greater understanding of the experiences of next of kin during their older relatives' care transitions. We conducted qualitative interviews of 13 next of kin of patients aged ≥80 years who had been discharged from the hospital to municipal care. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyse interviews. The main theme, 'Next of kin balance multiple tasks during older relatives' care transitions', emerged from two subthemes: 'Next of kin strive to fulfil informational needs during care transition' and 'Next of kin take responsibility for the older relative during care transition'. Next of kin have the challenging role of letting their older relative manage self-care during transition, when able, while being prepared to act on behalf of their relative as needed. Insufficient information and significant responsibilities contribute to unnecessary concerns and worries among next of kin. Nurses in both hospitals and municipal health care will benefit from knowing more about the experiences of next of kin; this may ensure continuity of care during transitions and diminish unnecessary worries and concerns. Clinical nurses should be sensitive to the next of kin's need for support so the next of kin can better manage their older relatives' care after homecoming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Family size and expectations about housing in the later nineteenth century: three Yorkshire towns.

PubMed

Atkinson, Paul

2011-01-01

This article illustrates how cultural history can deepen the understanding of demographic change, presenting evidence about ways in which rising working-class expectations about appropriate living standards may have created additional pressures on the perceived costs of child-rearing. Among the key areas of family consumption, housing costs are selected for examination. It is shown that higher expectations about appropriate housing quality put pressure on family budgets, augmented by the rising cost of like-for-like housing. The discussion considers expectations about the size of the dwelling and attitudes to furnishing the home, and suggests that these rising expectations helped encourage family limitation. Existing accounts of the fertility decline which stress the role of rising expectations are often too generalised: this article illustrates what can be gained by adding detail and geographical variation.

Monetary Losses Do Not Loom Large in Later Life: Age Differences in the Framing Effect

PubMed Central

Reed, Andrew E.

2009-01-01

Studies of the framing effect indicate that individuals are risk averse for decisions framed as gains but risk seeking for decisions framed as losses. However, findings regarding age-related changes in susceptibility to framing are mixed. Recent work demonstrating age-related decreases in reactivity to anticipated monetary losses, but not gains, suggests that older and younger adults might show equivalent risk aversion for gains but discrepant risk seeking for losses. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a monetary gambling task in which they chose between sure options and risky gambles (the expected outcomes of which were equated). Although both groups demonstrated risk aversion in the gain frame, only younger adults showed risk seeking in the loss frame. PMID:19497929

Sensation Seeking as a Moderator of Gain- and Loss-Framed HIV-Test Promotion Message Effects.

PubMed

Hull, Shawnika J; Hong, Yangsun

2016-01-01

This study used an experiment (N = 504) to test whether the fit between sensation-seeking disposition and frame enhances the persuasiveness of gain- and loss-framed HIV test promotion messages. Gain- and loss-framed messages may be consistent with low and high sensation seekers' disposition with respect to risk behavior. We hypothesized that a loss-framed message would be more persuasive for high sensation seekers and that a gain-framed message should be more effective for low sensation seekers. We also expected elaboration to mediate the interaction. Results demonstrated the hypothesized interaction. When the message frame fit with the viewer's way of thinking, the persuasive power of the message was enhanced. The mediation hypothesis was not supported. Practical implications for targeting and message design are discussed.

Expected Fitness Gains of Randomized Search Heuristics for the Traveling Salesperson Problem.

PubMed

Nallaperuma, Samadhi; Neumann, Frank; Sudholt, Dirk

2017-01-01

Randomized search heuristics are frequently applied to NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems. The runtime analysis of randomized search heuristics has contributed tremendously to our theoretical understanding. Recently, randomized search heuristics have been examined regarding their achievable progress within a fixed-time budget. We follow this approach and present a fixed-budget analysis for an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. We consider the well-known Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP) and analyze the fitness increase that randomized search heuristics are able to achieve within a given fixed-time budget. In particular, we analyze Manhattan and Euclidean TSP instances and Randomized Local Search (RLS), (1+1) EA and (1+[Formula: see text]) EA algorithms for the TSP in a smoothed complexity setting, and derive the lower bounds of the expected fitness gain for a specified number of generations.

Speeded Reaching Movements around Invisible Obstacles

PubMed Central

Hudson, Todd E.; Wolfe, Uta; Maloney, Laurence T.

2012-01-01

We analyze the problem of obstacle avoidance from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective using an experimental task in which reaches around a virtual obstacle were made toward targets on an upright monitor. Subjects received monetary rewards for touching the target and incurred losses for accidentally touching the intervening obstacle. The locations of target-obstacle pairs within the workspace were varied from trial to trial. We compared human performance to that of a Bayesian ideal movement planner (who chooses motor strategies maximizing expected gain) using the Dominance Test employed in Hudson et al. (2007). The ideal movement planner suffers from the same sources of noise as the human, but selects movement plans that maximize expected gain in the presence of that noise. We find good agreement between the predictions of the model and actual performance in most but not all experimental conditions. PMID:23028276

Optimal trajectory planning for a UAV glider using atmospheric thermals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagabo, Wilson B.

An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Glider (UAV glider) uses atmospheric energy in its different forms to remain aloft for extended flight durations. This UAV glider's aim is to extract atmospheric thermal energy and use it to supplement its battery energy usage and increase the mission period. Given an infrared camera identified atmospheric thermal of known strength and location; current wind speed and direction; current battery level; altitude and location of the UAV glider; and estimating the expected altitude gain from the thermal, is it possible to make an energy-efficient based motivation to fly to an atmospheric thermal so as to achieve UAV glider extended flight time? For this work, an infrared thermal camera aboard the UAV glider takes continuous forward-looking ground images of "hot spots". Through image processing a candidate atmospheric thermal strength and location is estimated. An Intelligent Decision Model incorporates this information with the current UAV glider status and weather conditions to provide an energy-based recommendation to modify the flight path of the UAV glider. Research, development, and simulation of the Intelligent Decision Model is the primary focus of this work. Three models are developed: (1) Battery Usage Model, (2) Intelligent Decision Model, and (3) Altitude Gain Model. The Battery Usage Model comes from the candidate flight trajectory, wind speed & direction and aircraft dynamic model. Intelligent Decision Model uses a fuzzy logic based approach. The Altitude Gain Model requires the strength and size of the thermal and is found a priori.

Risk attitudes in a changing environment: An evolutionary model of the fourfold pattern of risk preferences.

PubMed

Mallpress, Dave E W; Fawcett, Tim W; Houston, Alasdair I; McNamara, John M

2015-04-01

A striking feature of human decision making is the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, involving risk-averse behavior in situations of unlikely losses and likely gains, but risk-seeking behavior in response to likely losses and unlikely gains. Current theories to explain this pattern assume particular psychological processes to reproduce empirical observations, but do not address whether it is adaptive for the decision maker to respond to risk in this way. Here, drawing on insights from behavioral ecology, we build an evolutionary model of risk-sensitive behavior, to investigate whether particular types of environmental conditions could favor a fourfold pattern of risk attitudes. We consider an individual foraging in a changing environment, where energy is needed to prevent starvation and build up reserves for reproduction. The outcome, in terms of reproductive value (a rigorous measure of evolutionary success), of a one-off choice between a risky and a safe gain, or between a risky and a safe loss, determines the risk-sensitive behavior we should expect to see in this environment. Our results show that the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes may be adaptive in an environment in which conditions vary stochastically but are autocorrelated in time. In such an environment the current options provide information about the likely environmental conditions in the future, which affect the optimal pattern of risk sensitivity. Our model predicts that risk preferences should be both path dependent and affected by the decision maker's current state. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

[Development of an evidence-based self-management programme for patients in the first year after renal transplantation with a focus on prevention of weight gain, physical exercise and drug adherence].

PubMed

Schmid-Mohler, Gabriela; Fehr, Thomas; Witschi, Patrick; Albiez, Thomas; Biotti, Beatrice; Spirig, Rebecca

2013-06-01

In the first year after kidney transplantation patients are challenged with incorporating new behaviour patterns into their daily lives. Due to the higher risk of cardiovascular disease amongst kidney transplant recipients, behaviours such as preventing undesired weight gain, exercising, avoiding smoking, and managing medications take on crucial importance. The aim of the project was to develop a programme based on prevailing evidence to promote self-management skills in this patient population. To this end a participatory action research approach was chosen. The programme was developed with inter-professional collaboration under the direction of an advanced practice nurse. As theoretical framework for the development of the intervention models of behaviour change and self-management were chosen. The content is based on current literature and includes the viewpoints of both patients and nursing experts. The programme consists of three elements: 1) Educational brochures developed through inter-professional collaboration and evaluated in a pilot survey. These brochures provide a framework for appointments with nursing professionals. 2) The appointments are a forum in which the patient can gain access to relevant information and can be supported in putting sustainable health-related behaviours into practice in daily life. 3) A peer programme that uses treatment plans to encourage patients deviating from preferred health-related behaviours to make changes in their behaviour. The programme evaluation started in May of 2012. Results of the pilot study are expected in 2014.

Piloting an outcome-based programme evaluation tool in undergraduate medical education.

PubMed

Raupach, Tobias; Schiekirka, Sarah; Münscher, Christian; Beißbarth, Tim; Himmel, Wolfgang; Burckhardt, Gerhard; Pukrop, Tobias

2012-01-01

Different approaches to performance-oriented allocation of resources according to teaching quality are currently being discussed within German medical schools. The implementation of these programmes is impeded by a lack of valid criteria to measure teaching quality. An assessment of teaching quality should include structural and procedural aspects but focus on learning outcome itself. The aim of this study was to implement a novel, outcome-based evaluation tool within the clinical phase of a medical curriculum and address differences between the novel tool and traditional evaluation methods. Student self-assessments before and after completion of a teaching module were used to compute performance gains for specific learning objectives. Mean performance gains in each module were compared to student expectations before the module and data derived from a traditional evaluation tool using overall course ratings at the end of the module. A ranking of the 21 modules according to computed performance gains yielded entirely different results than module rankings based on overall course ratings. There was no significant correlation between performance gain and overall ratings. However, the latter were significantly correlated to student expectations before entering the module as well as structural and procedural parameters (Pearson's r 0.7-0.9). Performance gain computed from comparative self-assessments adds an important new dimension to course evaluation in medical education. In contrast to overall course ratings, the novel tool is less heavily confounded by construct-irrelevant factors. Thus, it appears to be more appropriate than overall course ratings in determining teaching quality and developing algorithms to guide performance-oriented resource allocation in medical education.

Dynamic remapping decisions in multi-phase parallel computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, D. M.; Reynolds, P. F., Jr.

1986-01-01

The effectiveness of any given mapping of workload to processors in a parallel system is dependent on the stochastic behavior of the workload. Program behavior is often characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. During a phase, the behavior is fairly stable, but may become quite different during the next phase. Thus a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. We consider the problem of deciding whether to remap a paralled computation in the face of uncertainty in remapping's utility. Fundamentally, it is necessary to balance the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost of remapping. This paper treats this problem formally by constructing a probabilistic model of a computation with at most two phases. We use stochastic dynamic programming to show that the remapping decision policy which minimizes the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure: the optimal decision at any step is followed by comparing the probability of remapping gain against a threshold. This theoretical result stresses the importance of detecting a phase change, and assessing the possibility of gain from remapping. We also empirically study the sensitivity of optimal performance to imprecise decision threshold. Under a wide range of model parameter values, we find nearly optimal performance if remapping is chosen simply when the gain probability is high. These results strongly suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change; precise quantification of the decision model parameters is not necessary.

Educational attainment and gestational weight gain among US mothers

PubMed Central

Cohen, Alison K.; Kazi, Chandni; Headen, Irene; Rehkopf, David H.; Hendrick, C. Emily; Patil, Divya; Abrams, Barbara

2016-01-01

Background Education is an important social determinant of many health outcomes, but the relationship between educational attainment and the amount of weight gained over the course of a woman's pregnancy (gestational weight gain (GWG)) has not been clearly established. Methods We used data from 1979-2010 for women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort (n= 6344 pregnancies from 2769 women). We used generalized estimating equations to estimate the association between educational attainment and GWG adequacy (as defined by 2009 Institute of Medicine guidelines), controlling for diverse social factors from across the life course (e.g., income, wealth, educational aspirations and expectations) and considering effect measure modification by race/ethnicity and pre-pregnancy overweight status. Results In most cases, women with more education had increased odds of gaining a recommended amount of gestational weight, independent of educational aspirations and educational expectations and relatively robust to sensitivity analyses. This trend manifested itself in a few different ways. Those with less education had higher odds of inadequate GWG than those with more education. Among those who were not overweight pre-pregnancy, those with less education had higher odds of excessive GWG than college graduates. Among women who were white, those with less than a high school degree had higher odds of excessive GWG than those with more education. Conclusion The relationship between educational attainment and GWG is nuanced and nonlinear. PMID:27372419

Orbital Evasive Target Tracking and Sensor Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-30

maximize the total information gain in the observer-to-target assignment. We compare the information based approach to the game theoretic criterion where...tracking with multiple space borne observers. The results indicate that the game theoretic approach is more effective than the information based approach in...sensor management is to maximize the total information gain in the observer-to-target assignment. We compare the information based approach to the game

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a patient-centered care model for management of psoriasis.

PubMed

Parsi, Kory; Chambers, Cindy J; Armstrong, April W

2012-04-01

Cost-effectiveness analyses help policymakers make informed decisions regarding funding allocation of health care resources. Cost-effectiveness analysis of technology-enabled models of health care delivery is necessary to assess sustainability of novel online, patient-centered health care models. We sought to compare cost-effectiveness of conventional in-office care with a patient-centered, online model for follow-up treatment of patients with psoriasis. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a societal perspective on a randomized controlled trial comparing a patient-centered online model with in-office visits for treatment of patients with psoriasis during a 24-week period. Quality-adjusted life expectancy was calculated using the life table method. Costs were generated from the original study parameters and national averages for salaries and services. No significant difference existed in the mean change in Dermatology Life Quality Index scores between the two groups (online: 3.51 ± 4.48 and in-office: 3.88 ± 6.65, P value = .79). Mean improvement in quality-adjusted life expectancy was not significantly different between the groups (P value = .93), with a gain of 0.447 ± 0.48 quality-adjusted life years for the online group and a gain of 0.463 ± 0.815 quality-adjusted life years for the in-office group. The cost of follow-up psoriasis care with online visits was 1.7 times less than the cost of in-person visits ($315 vs $576). Variations in travel time existed among patients depending on their distance from the dermatologist's office. From a societal perspective, the patient-centered online care model appears to be cost saving, while maintaining similar effectiveness to standard in-office care. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Whole-Body Single-Bed Time-of-Flight RPC-PET: Simulation of Axial and Planar Sensitivities With NEMA and Anthropomorphic Phantoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crespo, Paulo; Reis, João; Couceiro, Miguel; Blanco, Alberto; Ferreira, Nuno C.; Marques, Rui Ferreira; Martins, Paulo; Fonte, Paulo

2012-06-01

A single-bed, whole-body positron emission tomograph based on resistive plate chambers has been proposed (RPC-PET). An RPC-PET system with an axial field-of-view (AFOV) of 2.4 m has been shown in simulation to have higher system sensitivity using the NEMA NU2-1994 protocol than commercial PET scanners. However, that protocol does not correlate directly with lesion detectability. The latter is better correlated with the planar (slice) sensitivity, obtained with a NEMA NU2-2001 line-source phantom. After validation with published data for the GE Advance, Siemens TruePoint and TrueV, we study by simulation their axial sensitivity profiles, comparing results with RPC-PET. Planar sensitivities indicate that RPC-PET is expected to outperform 16-cm (22-cm) AFOV scanners by a factor 5.8 (3.0) for 70-cm-long scans. For 1.5-m scans (head to mid-legs), the sensitivity gain increases to 11.7 (6.7). Yet, PET systems with large AFOV provide larger coverage but also larger attenuation in the object. We studied these competing effects with both spherical- and line-sources immersed in a 27-cm-diameter water cylinder. For 1.5-m-long scans, the planar sensitivity drops one order of magnitude in all scanners, with RPC-PET outperforming 16-cm (22-cm) AFOV scanners by a factor 9.2 (5.3) without considering the TOF benefit. A gain in the effective sensitivity is expected with TOF iterative reconstruction. Finally, object scatter in an anthropomorphic phantom is similar for RPC-PET and modern, scintillator-based scanners, although RPC-PET benefits further if its TOF information is utilized to exclude scatter events occurring outside the anthropomorphic phantom.

Transient imaging for real-time tracking around a corner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Jonathan; Laurenzis, Martin; Hullin, Matthias

2016-10-01

Non-line-of-sight imaging is a fascinating emerging area of research and expected to have an impact in numerous application fields including civilian and military sensing. Performance of human perception and situational awareness can be extended by the sensing of shapes and movement around a corner in future scenarios. Rather than seeing through obstacles directly, non-line-of-sight imaging relies on analyzing indirect reflections of light that traveled around the obstacle. In previous work, transient imaging was established as the key mechanic to enable the extraction of useful information from such reflections. So far, a number of different approaches based on transient imaging have been proposed, with back projection being the most prominent one. Different hardware setups were used for the acquisition of the required data, however all of them have severe drawbacks such as limited image quality, long capture time or very high prices. In this paper we propose the analysis of synthetic transient renderings to gain more insights into the transient light transport. With this simulated data, we are no longer bound to the imperfect data of real systems and gain more flexibility and control over the analysis. In a second part, we use the insights of our analysis to formulate a novel reconstruction algorithm. It uses an adapted light simulation to formulate an inverse problem which is solved in an analysis-by-synthesis fashion. Through rigorous optimization of the reconstruction, it then becomes possible to track known objects outside the line of side in real time. Due to the forward formulation of the light transport, the algorithm is easily expandable to more general scenarios or different hardware setups. We therefore expect it to become a viable alternative to the classic back projection approach in the future.

Relationship Between Optimal Gain and Coherence Zone in Flight Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gracio, Bruno Jorge Correia; Pais, Ana Rita Valente; vanPaassen, M. M.; Mulder, Max; Kely, Lon C.; Houck, Jacob A.

2011-01-01

In motion simulation the inertial information generated by the motion platform is most of the times different from the visual information in the simulator displays. This occurs due to the physical limits of the motion platform. However, for small motions that are within the physical limits of the motion platform, one-to-one motion, i.e. visual information equal to inertial information, is possible. It has been shown in previous studies that one-to-one motion is often judged as too strong, causing researchers to lower the inertial amplitude. When trying to measure the optimal inertial gain for a visual amplitude, we found a zone of optimal gains instead of a single value. Such result seems related with the coherence zones that have been measured in flight simulation studies. However, the optimal gain results were never directly related with the coherence zones. In this study we investigated whether the optimal gain measurements are the same as the coherence zone measurements. We also try to infer if the results obtained from the two measurements can be used to differentiate between simulators with different configurations. An experiment was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center which used both the Cockpit Motion Facility and the Visual Motion Simulator. The results show that the inertial gains obtained with the optimal gain are different than the ones obtained with the coherence zone measurements. The optimal gain is within the coherence zone.The point of mean optimal gain was lower and further away from the one-to-one line than the point of mean coherence. The zone width obtained for the coherence zone measurements was dependent on the visual amplitude and frequency. For the optimal gain, the zone width remained constant when the visual amplitude and frequency were varied. We found no effect of the simulator configuration in both the coherence zone and optimal gain measurements.

Predicting losing and gaining river reaches in lowland New Zealand based on a statistical methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jing; Zammit, Christian; Dudley, Bruce

2017-04-01

The phenomenon of losing and gaining in rivers normally takes place in lowland where often there are various, sometimes conflicting uses for water resources, e.g., agriculture, industry, recreation, and maintenance of ecosystem function. To better support water allocation decisions, it is crucial to understand the location and seasonal dynamics of these losses and gains. We present a statistical methodology to predict losing and gaining river reaches in New Zealand based on 1) information surveys with surface water and groundwater experts from regional government, 2) A collection of river/watershed characteristics, including climate, soil and hydrogeologic information, and 3) the random forests technique. The surveys on losing and gaining reaches were conducted face-to-face at 16 New Zealand regional government authorities, and climate, soil, river geometry, and hydrogeologic data from various sources were collected and compiled to represent river/watershed characteristics. The random forests technique was used to build up the statistical relationship between river reach status (gain and loss) and river/watershed characteristics, and then to predict for river reaches at Strahler order one without prior losing and gaining information. Results show that the model has a classification error of around 10% for "gain" and "loss". The results will assist further research, and water allocation decisions in lowland New Zealand.

Unexpected and just missed: the separate influence of the appraisals of expectancy and proximity on negative emotions.

PubMed

Bossuyt, Evelien; Moors, Agnes; De Houwer, Jan

2014-04-01

Previous research has suggested that a goal-incongruent outcome leads to more intense negative emotions when it is unexpected and close to a goal-congruent outcome. Until now, however, no studies have disentangled the influence of the appraisals of expectancy and proximity on emotions. We experimentally manipulated each of these variables in 3 slot machine experiments and measured emotions via differences in motivation (i.e., the tendency to repair the goal incongruence) and feelings (i.e., disappointment, frustration, and anger). The experiments consisted of a series of trials that each started with the sequential presentation of 3 symbols. In case of a win trial, all symbols were equal (e.g., AAA) and the participant gained 10 cents; in case of a loss trial, one or more of the symbols differed and the participant gained 0 cents. Three different loss trials were compared: unexpected proximal ones (e.g., AAB), expected proximal ones (e.g., ABA), and expected distal ones (e.g., ABC). The tendency to repair was measured online via behavior as well as retrospectively via self-reports; feelings were measured retrospectively (Experiments 1 and 2) or online (Experiment 3). Unexpected losses seemed to increase the tendency to repair as well as feelings of disappointment (in all experiments) and feelings of frustration and anger (in Experiments 1 and 3). Proximal losses increased only the tendency to repair (in all experiments). This suggests that the appraisals of expectancy and proximity have a distinct influence on emotions.

Genetic co-variance functions for live weight, feed intake, and efficiency measures in growing pigs.

PubMed

Coyne, J M; Berry, D P; Matilainen, K; Sevon-Aimonen, M-L; Mantysaari, E A; Juga, J; Serenius, T; McHugh, N

2017-09-01

The objective of the present study was to estimate genetic co-variance parameters pertaining to live weight, feed intake, and 2 efficiency traits (i.e., residual feed intake and residual daily gain) in a population of pigs over a defined growing phase using Legendre polynomial equations. The data set used consisted of 51,893 live weight records and 903,436 feed intake, residual feed intake (defined as the difference between an animal's actual feed intake and its expected feed intake), and residual daily gain (defined as the difference between an animal's actual growth rate and its expected growth rate) records from 10,201 growing pigs. Genetic co-variance parameters for all traits were estimated using random regression Legendre polynomials. Daily heritability estimates for live weight ranged from 0.25 ± 0.04 (d 73) to 0.50 ± 0.03 (d 122). Low to moderate heritability estimates were evident for feed intake, ranging from 0.07 ± 0.03 (d 66) to 0.25 ± 0.02 (d 170). The estimated heritability for residual feed intake was generally lower than those of both live weight and feed intake and ranged from 0.04 ± 0.01 (d 96) to 0.17 ± 0.02 (d 159). The heritability for feed intake and residual feed intake increased in the early stages of the test period and subsequently sharply declined, coinciding with older ages. Heritability estimates for residual daily gain ranged from 0.26 ± 0.03 (d 188) to 0.42 ± 0.03 (d 101). Genetic correlations within trait were strongest between adjacent ages but weakened as the interval between ages increased; however, the genetic correlations within all traits tended to strengthen between the extremes of the trajectory. Moderate to strong genetic correlations were evident among live weight, feed intake, and the efficiency traits, particularly in the early stage of the trial period (d 66 to 86), but weakened with age. Results from this study could be implemented into the national genetic evaluation for pigs, providing comprehensive information on the profile of growth and efficiency throughout the growing period of the animal's life, thus helping producers identify genetically superior animals.

Information Gain Based Dimensionality Selection for Classifying Text Documents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dumidu Wijayasekara; Milos Manic; Miles McQueen

2013-06-01

Selecting the optimal dimensions for various knowledge extraction applications is an essential component of data mining. Dimensionality selection techniques are utilized in classification applications to increase the classification accuracy and reduce the computational complexity. In text classification, where the dimensionality of the dataset is extremely high, dimensionality selection is even more important. This paper presents a novel, genetic algorithm based methodology, for dimensionality selection in text mining applications that utilizes information gain. The presented methodology uses information gain of each dimension to change the mutation probability of chromosomes dynamically. Since the information gain is calculated a priori, the computational complexitymore » is not affected. The presented method was tested on a specific text classification problem and compared with conventional genetic algorithm based dimensionality selection. The results show an improvement of 3% in the true positives and 1.6% in the true negatives over conventional dimensionality selection methods.« less

Why Nations Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving

PubMed Central

Kinugasa, Tomoko; Mason, Andrew

2007-01-01

We analyze steady state and out-of-steady-state effects of the transition in adult longevity on the national saving rate using historical data and international panel data. The rise in adult life expectancy has a large and statistically significant effect on aggregate saving. The effects have been especially pronounced in East Asia because its mortality transition was very rapid. Gains in life expectancy are much more important than declines in child dependency. Population aging may not lead to lower saving rates in the future if life expectancy and the duration of retirement continue to increase. PMID:18167514

On Selecting Commercial Information Systems

PubMed Central

Möhr, J.R.; Sawinski, R.; Kluge, A.; Alle, W.

1984-01-01

As more commercial information systems become available, the methodology for their selection gains importance. An instances where the method employed for the selection of laboratory information systems was multilevel assessment. The method is described and the experience gained in the project is summarized and discussed. Evidence is provided that the employed method is comprehensive, reproducible, valid and economic.

Constructing network scheme of connecting with Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ganghua

2001-06-01

Nowadays people are more and more imminent for information's gain; time of gaining information is stressed; demand for information quantity is larger and larger. These make us have to scan again our communication pattern. Purpose of this article is comparing a few ways to connect with Internet to find a way that is proper to us.

Understanding of research: a Sri Lankan perspective.

PubMed

Sumathipala, Athula; Siribaddana, Sisira; Hewage, Suwin; Lekamwattage, Manura; Athukorale, Manjula; Siriwardhana, Chesmal; Munasinghe, Kumudu; Sumathipala, Kethakie; Murray, Joanna; Prince, Martin

2010-04-27

Lack of proper understanding on the part of researchers about public understanding of research and informed consent will increase the potential for malpractice. As a part of a larger study on ethics and informed consent in Sri Lanka, this study aimed to ascertain the level of understanding of 'research' by exploring the views of the public and professionals. Convenience sampling and snow ball technique were used for recruitment with an emphasis on balanced age and gender representation, diverse educational, socio-cultural and professional backgrounds, and previous research experience, either as researchers or participants. Content analysis of the data was carried out. 66 persons (37 males, 29 females) participated. Although fundamentally a qualitative study, themes were also quantitatively analysed for informative results. Most participants thought that the word 'research' meant searching, looking, inquiring while some others thought it meant gathering information, gaining knowledge and learning.A third of participants did not offer an alternative word for research. Others suggested the words survey, exploration, search, experiment, discovery, invention and study as being synonymous. Doctors, health professionals, health institutions, scientists, professionals, businessmen, pharmaceutical companies, students, teachers were identified as people who conduct research.Participants indicated that crucial information on deciding to participate in research included objectives of the research, project importance and relevance, potential benefits to individuals and society, credibility & legitimacy of researchers, what is expected of participant, reason for selection, expected outcome, confidentiality and ability to withdraw at any time. A majority (89%) expressed their willingness to participate in future research. The results show that with or without prior experience in research, participants in this study had a reasonable understanding of research. The findings show that a decision about taking part in research is dependent on knowledge, education and also on social networks.The results demonstrate that the majority were supportive of health research and believe that research is beneficial to the welfare of society.

Expectations and Fulfillment of Course Engagement, Gained Skills, and Non-Academic Usage of College Students Utilizing Tablets in an Undergraduate Skills Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bluestein, Stephanie A.; Kim, Taehyun

2017-01-01

The purpose of this mixed-methods study was to compare the expectations and fulfillment of undergraduate students enrolled in a skills class that utilized iPads in the classroom. Pre- and post-surveys were administered to students at the beginning and end of the semester. A series of t-tests (n = 78) showed the tablet did not meet their…

[Willingness and preferences of actual service suppliers regarding cancer screening programs: a multi-center survey in urban China].

PubMed

Shi, J F; Mao, A Y; Sun, Z X; Lei, H K; Qiu, W Q; Huang, H Y; Dong, P; Huang, J W; Zhu, J; Li, J; Liu, G X; Wang, D B; Bai, Y N; Sun, X J; Liao, X Z; Ren, J S; Guo, L W; Lan, L; Zhou, Q; Yang, L; Song, B B; Du, L B; Zhu, L; Wang, J L; Liu, Y Q; Ren, Y; Mai, L; Qin, M F; Zhang, Y Z; Zhou, J Y; Sun, X H; Wu, S L; Qi, X; Lou, P A; Cai, B; Li, N; Zhang, K; He, J; Dai, M

2018-02-10

Objective: From the perspective of actual service suppliers regarding cancer screening, this study aimed to assess the long-term sustainability of cancer screening programs in China. Methods: Based on a Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC), our survey focused on all the hospitals, centers for disease control and prevention (CDC) and community service centers across 16 provinces in China which participated in the programs between 2013 and 2015. All the managers (institutional/department level) and professional staff involved in the program were interviewed using either paper-based questionnaire or online approach. Results: A total of 4 626 participants completed the interview. It showed that the main gains from providing screening service emphasized promotion in social value (63.6%), local reputation (35.9%), and professional skills (30.6%), whereas difficulties encountered included inadequate compensation (30.9%) and discordance among information systems (28.3%). When the service remuneration amounts to about 50 Chinese Yuan per screening item, those professional staff self-reported that they would like to work overtime. More than half (63.7%) of the staff expressed willingness to provide routine screening service, the main expectations were to promote their reputation to the local residents (48.7%) and to promote professional skills (43.1%). Those who were not willing to provide screening services were worried about the potential heavy workload (59.8%) or being interfered with their routine work (49.8%). Further detailed results regarding the different organization types and program roles were presented in the following detailed report. Conclusions: Findings of gains and difficulties showed that if cancer screening is expected to become a long-term running, incentive mechanism from the program, external promotion and advocacy as well as capacity building should be strengthened; furthermore, rewards to staff's screening services should be raised according to the local situations. Results regarding the "willingness to provide service" showed that management of the program should also be strengthened, including information system building and inter-agency and inter-department coordination at the government levels.

Capuchin monkeys' use of human and conspecific cues to solve a hidden object-choice task.

PubMed

Essler, Jennifer L; Schwartz, Lindsay P; Rossettie, Mattea S; Judge, Peter G

2017-09-01

Learning by watching others can provide valuable information with adaptive consequences, such as identifying the presence of a predator or locating a food source. The extent to which nonhuman animals can gain information by reading the cues of others is often tested by evaluating responses to human gestures, such as a point, and less often evaluated by examining responses to conspecific cues. We tested whether ten brown capuchin monkeys (Cebus [Sapajus] apella) were able to use cues from monkeys and a pointing cue from a human to obtain hidden rewards. A monkey could gain access to a reward hidden in one of two locations by reading a cue from a conspecific (e.g., reaching) or a human pointing. We then tested whether they could transfer this skill from monkeys to humans, from humans to monkeys, and from one conspecific to another conspecific. One group of monkeys was trained and tested using a conspecific as the cue-giver and was then tested with a human cue-giver. The second group of monkeys was trained and tested with a human cue-giver and was then tested with a monkey cue-giver. Monkeys that were successful with a conspecific cue-giver were also tested with a novel conspecific cue-giver. Monkeys learned to use a human point and conspecific cues to obtain rewards. Monkeys that had learned to use the cues of a conspecific to obtain rewards performed significantly better than expected by chance when they were transferred to the cues of a novel conspecific. Monkeys that learned to use a human point to obtain rewards performed significantly better than expected by chance when tested while observing conspecific cues. Some evidence suggested that transferring between conspecific cue-givers occurred with more facility than transferring across species. Results may be explained by simple rules of association learning and stimulus generalization; however, spontaneous flexible use of gestures across conspecifics and between different species may indicate capuchins can generalize learned social cues within and partially across species.

Optimization of Swine Breeding Programs Using Genomic Selection with ZPLAN+

PubMed Central

Lopez, B. M.; Kang, H. S.; Kim, T. H.; Viterbo, V. S.; Kim, H. S.; Na, C. S.; Seo, K. S.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the present conventional selection program of a swine nucleus farm and compare it with a new selection strategy employing genomic enhanced breeding value (GEBV) as the selection criteria. The ZPLAN+ software was employed to calculate and compare the genetic gain, total cost, return and profit of each selection strategy. The first strategy reflected the current conventional breeding program, which was a progeny test system (CS). The second strategy was a selection scheme based strictly on genomic information (GS1). The third scenario was the same as GS1, but the selection by GEBV was further supplemented by the performance test (GS2). The last scenario was a mixture of genomic information and progeny tests (GS3). The results showed that the accuracy of the selection index of young boars of GS1 was 26% higher than that of CS. On the other hand, both GS2 and GS3 gave 31% higher accuracy than CS for young boars. The annual monetary genetic gain of GS1, GS2 and GS3 was 10%, 12%, and 11% higher, respectively, than that of CS. As expected, the discounted costs of genomic selection strategies were higher than those of CS. The costs of GS1, GS2 and GS3 were 35%, 73%, and 89% higher than those of CS, respectively, assuming a genotyping cost of $120. As a result, the discounted profit per animal of GS1 and GS2 was 8% and 2% higher, respectively, than that of CS while GS3 was 6% lower. Comparison among genomic breeding scenarios revealed that GS1 was more profitable than GS2 and GS3. The genomic selection schemes, especially GS1 and GS2, were clearly superior to the conventional scheme in terms of monetary genetic gain and profit. PMID:26954222

Quantifying Information Gain from Dynamic Downscaling Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2015-12-01

Dynamic climate downscaling experiments are designed to produce information at higher spatial and temporal resolutions. Such additional information is generated from the low-resolution initial and boundary conditions via the predictive power of the physical laws. However, errors and uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions can be propagated and even amplified to the downscaled simulations. Additionally, the limit of predictability in nonlinear dynamical systems will also damper the information gain, even if the initial and boundary conditions were error-free. Thus it is critical to quantitatively define and measure the amount of information increase from dynamic downscaling experiments, to better understand and appreciate their potentials and limitations. We present a scheme to objectively measure the information gain from such experiments. The scheme is based on information theory, and we argue that if a downscaling experiment is to exhibit value, it has to produce more information than what can be simply inferred from information sources already available. These information sources include the initial and boundary conditions, the coarse resolution model in which the higher-resolution models are embedded, and the same set of physical laws. These existing information sources define an "information threshold" as a function of the spatial and temporal resolution, and this threshold serves as a benchmark to quantify the information gain from the downscaling experiments, or any other approaches. For a downscaling experiment to shown any value, the information has to be above this threshold. A recent NASA-supported downscaling experiment is used as an example to illustrate the application of this scheme.

Quantifying the mechanisms of domain gain in animal proteins.

PubMed

Buljan, Marija; Frankish, Adam; Bateman, Alex

2010-01-01

Protein domains are protein regions that are shared among different proteins and are frequently functionally and structurally independent from the rest of the protein. Novel domain combinations have a major role in evolutionary innovation. However, the relative contributions of the different molecular mechanisms that underlie domain gains in animals are still unknown. By using animal gene phylogenies we were able to identify a set of high confidence domain gain events and by looking at their coding DNA investigate the causative mechanisms. Here we show that the major mechanism for gains of new domains in metazoan proteins is likely to be gene fusion through joining of exons from adjacent genes, possibly mediated by non-allelic homologous recombination. Retroposition and insertion of exons into ancestral introns through intronic recombination are, in contrast to previous expectations, only minor contributors to domain gains and have accounted for less than 1% and 10% of high confidence domain gain events, respectively. Additionally, exonization of previously non-coding regions appears to be an important mechanism for addition of disordered segments to proteins. We observe that gene duplication has preceded domain gain in at least 80% of the gain events. The interplay of gene duplication and domain gain demonstrates an important mechanism for fast neofunctionalization of genes.

Socially disparate trends in lifespan variation: a trend study on income and mortality based on nationwide Danish register data.

PubMed

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2017-05-17

Social inequality trends in life expectancy are not informative as to changes in social disparity in the age-at-death distribution. The purpose of the study was to investigate social differentials in trends and patterns of adult mortality in Denmark. Register data on income and mortality from 1986 to 2014 were used to investigate trends in life expectancy, life disparity and the threshold age that separates 'premature' and 'late' deaths. Mortality compression was quantified and compared between income quartiles. Since 1986, male life expectancy increased by 4.2 years for the lowest income quartile and by 8.4 years for the highest income quartile. The clear compression of mortality apparent in the highest income quartile did not occur for the lowest income quartile. Premature and late deaths accounted both by 2.1 years of the increase in life expectancy in the lowest income quartile and by 6.0 and 2.4 years, respectively, in the highest income quartile. Life expectancy increased by 5.2 years among women in the lowest income quartile, 2.4 years due to premature deaths and 2.8 years due to late deaths. The gain in life expectancy among women in the highest income quartile of 5.6 years was distributed by 5.0 and 0.6 years due to premature and late deaths, respectively. The study demonstrates that the increasing social gap in mortality appears differently in the change of the age-at-death distribution. Thus, no compression of mortality was seen in the lowest income quartile. The results do not provide support for a uniformly extension of pension age for all. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Reward Expectancy Strengthens CA1 Theta and Beta Band Synchronization and Hippocampal-Ventral Striatal Coupling.

PubMed

Lansink, Carien S; Meijer, Guido T; Lankelma, Jan V; Vinck, Martin A; Jackson, Jadin C; Pennartz, Cyriel M A

2016-10-12

The use of information from the hippocampal memory system in motivated behavior depends on its communication with the ventral striatum. When an animal encounters cues that signal subsequent reward, its reward expectancy is raised. It is unknown, however, how this process affects hippocampal dynamics and their influence on target structures, such as ventral striatum. We show that, in rats, reward-predictive cues result in enhanced hippocampal theta and beta band rhythmic activity during subsequent action, compared with uncued goal-directed navigation. The beta band component, also labeled theta's harmonic, involves selective hippocampal CA1 cell groups showing frequency doubling of firing periodicity relative to theta rhythmicity and it partitions the theta cycle into segments showing clear versus poor spike timing organization. We found that theta phase precession occurred over a wider range than previously reported. This was apparent from spikes emitted near the peak of the theta cycle exhibiting large "phase precessing jumps" relative to spikes in foregoing cycles. Neither this phenomenon nor the regular manifestation of theta phase precession was affected by reward expectancy. Ventral striatal neuronal firing phase-locked not only to hippocampal theta, but also to beta band activity. Both hippocampus and ventral striatum showed increased synchronization between neuronal firing and local field potential activity during cued compared with uncued goal approaches. These results suggest that cue-triggered reward expectancy intensifies hippocampal output to target structures, such as the ventral striatum, by which the hippocampus may gain prioritized access to systems modulating motivated behaviors. Here we show that temporally discrete cues raising reward expectancy enhance both theta and beta band activity in the hippocampus once goal-directed navigation has been initiated. These rhythmic activities are associated with increased synchronization of neuronal firing patterns in the hippocampus and the connected ventral striatum. When transmitted to downstream target structures, this expectancy-related state of intensified processing in the hippocampus may modulate goal-directed action. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3610598-13$15.00/0.

Decentralized adaptive control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oh, B. J.; Jamshidi, M.; Seraji, H.

1988-01-01

A decentralized adaptive control is proposed to stabilize and track the nonlinear, interconnected subsystems with unknown parameters. The adaptation of the controller gain is derived by using model reference adaptive control theory based on Lyapunov's direct method. The adaptive gains consist of sigma, proportional, and integral combination of the measured and reference values of the corresponding subsystem. The proposed control is applied to the joint control of a two-link robot manipulator, and the performance in computer simulation corresponds with what is expected in theoretical development.

Quantifying risk: the role of absolute and relative measures in interpreting risk of adverse reactions from product labels of antipsychotic medications.

PubMed

Citrome, Leslie

2009-09-01

Pharmaceutical product labeling as approved by regulatory agencies include statements of adverse event risk. Product labels include descriptive statements such as whether events are uncommon or rare, as well as percentage occurrence for more common events. In addition tables are provided with the frequencies of the latter events for both product and placebo as observed in clinical trials. Competing products are not mentioned in a specific drug's product labeling but indirect comparisons can be made using the corresponding label information for the alternate product. Two types of tools are easily used for this purpose: absolute measures such as number needed to harm (NNH), and relative measures such as relative risk increase (RRI). The calculations for both of these types of quantitative measures are presented using as examples the oral first-line second-generation antipsychotic medications. Among three sample outcomes selected a priori, akathisia, weight gain, and discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction, there appears to be differences among the different antipsychotics versus placebo. Aripiprazole was associated with the highest risk for akathisia, particularly when used as adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder (NNH 5, 95% CI 4-7; RRI 525%, 95% CI 267%-964%). Although insufficient information was available in product labeling to calculate the CI, olanzapine was associated with the highest risk for weight gain of at least 7% from baseline (NNH 6, RRI 640% for adults; NNH 4, RRI 314% for adolescents), and quetiapine for the indication of bipolar depression was associated with the highest risk of discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction (NNH 8, RRI 265% for 600 mg/d; NNH 15, RRI 137% for 300 mg/d). In conclusion, with certain limitations, it is possible for the clinician to extract information from medication product labeling regarding the frequency with which certain adverse reactions can be expected. This supplements, but does not replace, information reported directly in clinical trial reports.

[Acupuncture Intervention Reduced Weight Gain Induced by Hypoglycemic Agents through Food Intake-related Targets in Central Nervous System].

PubMed

Jing, Xin-yue; Ou, Chen; Lu, Sheng-feng; Zhu, Bing-mei

2015-12-01

Clinical practice shows that thiazolidinediones (TZDs) induce weight gain in patients with type-II diabetes mellitus during treatment, which restrains its application and generalization clinically. It has been demonstrated that acupuncture therapy is useful in easing obesity in clinical trials. In the present paper, we summarize the underlying mechanism of weight gain induced by TZDs through food intake-related targets in the central nervous system and analyze the possible effects of acupuncture therapy. Acupuncture therapy is expected to reduce weight gain side effect of TZDs through 1) lowering permeability of blood brain barrier to reduce TZDs concentration in the brain, 2) upregulating the expression of hypothalamic leptin and inhibiting hypothalamic neuropiptide Y expression, and 3) down-regulating activities of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor to reduce energy intake and fat syntheses.

Affective-motivational influences on feedback-related ERPs in a gambling task.

PubMed

Masaki, Hiroaki; Takeuchi, Shigeki; Gehring, William J; Takasawa, Noriyoshi; Yamazaki, Katuo

2006-08-11

Theories have proposed that both the stimulus-preceding negativity (SPN) and the medial frontal negativity (MFN) reflect affective/motivational processing. We examined the effect of the motivational impact of feedback stimuli on these ERPs using a simple gambling task, focusing on the influence of prior losses and gains on ERPs and choice behavior. Choices were riskier following large losses than following small losses or large gains. The MFN, however, was larger following larger gains. The SPN preceding the outcome was also larger after a greater gain. Thus, we confirmed that both the MFN and the SPN respond to the motivational properties of the feedback. A dissociation between risk-taking behavior and these ERPs suggests that there could be two monitoring systems: one that leads to riskier responses following losses and a second that leads to heightened expectancy.

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Shea, Katriona; Tildesley, Michael J.; Runge, Michael C.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2014-01-01

Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach to design and evaluate intervention strategies in epidemiology, using real-time surveillance to resolve model uncertainty as management proceeds, with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) culling and measles vaccination as case studies. We use simulations of alternative intervention strategies under competing models to quantify the effect of model uncertainty on decision making, in terms of the value of information, and quantify the benefit of adaptive versus static intervention strategies. Culling decisions during the 2001 UK FMD outbreak were contentious due to uncertainty about the spatial scale of transmission. The expected benefit of resolving this uncertainty prior to a new outbreak on a UK-like landscape would be £45–£60 million relative to the strategy that minimizes livestock losses averaged over alternate transmission models. AM during the outbreak would be expected to recover up to £20.1 million of this expected benefit. AM would also recommend a more conservative initial approach (culling of infected premises and dangerous contact farms) than would a fixed strategy (which would additionally require culling of contiguous premises). For optimal targeting of measles vaccination, based on an outbreak in Malawi in 2010, AM allows better distribution of resources across the affected region; its utility depends on uncertainty about both the at-risk population and logistical capacity. When daily vaccination rates are highly constrained, the optimal initial strategy is to conduct a small, quick campaign; a reduction in expected burden of approximately 10,000 cases could result if campaign targets can be updated on the basis of the true susceptible population. Formal incorporation of a policy to update future management actions in response to information gained in the course of an outbreak can change the optimal initial response and result in significant cost savings. AM provides a framework for using multiple models to facilitate public-health decision making and an objective basis for updating management actions in response to improved scientific understanding. PMID:25333371

Adaptive management and the value of information: learning via intervention in epidemiology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shea, Katriona; Tildesley, Michael J.; Runge, Michael C.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2014-01-01

Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach to design and evaluate intervention strategies in epidemiology, using real-time surveillance to resolve model uncertainty as management proceeds, with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) culling and measles vaccination as case studies. We use simulations of alternative intervention strategies under competing models to quantify the effect of model uncertainty on decision making, in terms of the value of information, and quantify the benefit of adaptive versus static intervention strategies. Culling decisions during the 2001 UK FMD outbreak were contentious due to uncertainty about the spatial scale of transmission. The expected benefit of resolving this uncertainty prior to a new outbreak on a UK-like landscape would be £45–£60 million relative to the strategy that minimizes livestock losses averaged over alternate transmission models. AM during the outbreak would be expected to recover up to £20.1 million of this expected benefit. AM would also recommend a more conservative initial approach (culling of infected premises and dangerous contact farms) than would a fixed strategy (which would additionally require culling of contiguous premises). For optimal targeting of measles vaccination, based on an outbreak in Malawi in 2010, AM allows better distribution of resources across the affected region; its utility depends on uncertainty about both the at-risk population and logistical capacity. When daily vaccination rates are highly constrained, the optimal initial strategy is to conduct a small, quick campaign; a reduction in expected burden of approximately 10,000 cases could result if campaign targets can be updated on the basis of the true susceptible population. Formal incorporation of a policy to update future management actions in response to information gained in the course of an outbreak can change the optimal initial response and result in significant cost savings. AM provides a framework for using multiple models to facilitate public-health decision making and an objective basis for updating management actions in response to improved scientific understanding.

Finding a roadmap to achieve large neuromorphic hardware systems

PubMed Central

Hasler, Jennifer; Marr, Bo

2013-01-01

Neuromorphic systems are gaining increasing importance in an era where CMOS digital computing techniques are reaching physical limits. These silicon systems mimic extremely energy efficient neural computing structures, potentially both for solving engineering applications as well as understanding neural computation. Toward this end, the authors provide a glimpse at what the technology evolution roadmap looks like for these systems so that Neuromorphic engineers may gain the same benefit of anticipation and foresight that IC designers gained from Moore's law many years ago. Scaling of energy efficiency, performance, and size will be discussed as well as how the implementation and application space of Neuromorphic systems are expected to evolve over time. PMID:24058330

Georgia Interactive Network--GaIN--for Medical Information. Final Grant Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rankin, Jocelyn A.

This report describes the development of the Georgia Interactive Network for Medical Information (GaIN), a project initially funded by a three-year (1983-1986) National Library of Medicine resource project grant. Designed to serve as a model network to transmit information via computer directly to health professionals, GaIN now operates through a…

Cost-Effectiveness of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement With a Self-Expanding Prosthesis Versus Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Matthew R.; Lei, Yang; Wang, Kaijun; Chinnakondepalli, Khaja; Vilain, Katherine A.; Magnuson, Elizabeth A.; Galper, Benjamin Z.; Meduri, Christopher U.; Arnold, Suzanne V.; Baron, Suzanne J.; Reardon, Michael J.; Adams, David H.; Popma, Jeffrey J.; Cohen, David J.

2016-01-01

Background Prior studies of the cost-effectiveness of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) have been based primarily on a single balloon-expandable system. Objectives The goal of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TAVR with a self-expanding prosthesis compared with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for patients with severe aortic stenosis and high surgical risk. Methods We performed a formal economic analysis on the basis of individual, patient-level data from the CoreValve U.S. High Risk pivotal trial. Empirical data regarding survival and quality of life (QOL) over 2 years, and medical resource use and hospital costs through 12 months were used to project life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and lifetime medical costs in order to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of TAVR versus SAVR from a U.S. perspective. Results Relative to SAVR, TAVR reduced initial length of stay an average of 4.4 days, decreased the need for rehabilitation services at discharge, and resulted in superior 1-month QOL. Index admission and projected lifetime costs were higher with TAVR than with SAVR (differences $11,260 and $17,849 per patient, respectively), whereas TAVR was projected to provide a lifetime gain of 0.32 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 0.41 life-years [LYs]) with 3% discounting. Lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were $55,090 per QALY gained and $43,114 per LY gained. Sensitivity analyses indicated that a reduction in the initial cost of TAVR by ~$1,650 would lead to an ICER <$50,000/QALY gained. Conclusions In a high-risk clinical trial population, TAVR with a self-expanding prosthesis provided meaningful clinical benefits compared with SAVR, with incremental costs considered acceptable by current U.S. standards. With expected modest reductions in the cost of index TAVR admissions, the value of TAVR compared with SAVR in this patient population would become high. PMID:26764063

[Perceptions and attitudes regarding noise in urban areas: the example of the Ile-de-France region].

PubMed

Grange, Dorothée; Chatignoux, Edouard; Grémy, Isabelle

2010-01-01

Noise is the subject of increasing attention for the French, especially in highly urbanized areas where its sources are multiple. In this context, this article aims to gain a better understanding of the how the specificities of the Ile-de-France region influence perceptions, attitudes and expectations of its inhabitants with respect to noise. The article is based on the regional use of results extracted from the national Environmental Health Barometer 2007 study by the INPES, the French National Institute for Prevention and Health Education. First and foremost, noise is perceived as a source of discomfort and inconvenience, in particular in Ile-de-France, while the related consequences of noise exposure for health were of secondary importance and not necessarily influenced by the degree of urbanization. The preoccupation with noise was much more important in the Ile-de-France region than in the rest of the country. Furthermore, a significant proportion of young people, particularly the Paris region, are exposed to high noise levels during their leisure time. These results are useful to better understand the expectations and needs of Parisians in terms of policies needed for information and education, prevention and reduction of noise.

Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour to weight control in an overweight cohort. Results from a pan-European dietary intervention trial (DiOGenes).

PubMed

McConnon, Aine; Raats, Monique; Astrup, Arne; Bajzová, Magda; Handjieva-Darlenska, Teodora; Lindroos, Anna Karin; Martinez, J Alfredo; Larson, Thomas Meinert; Papadaki, Angeliki; Pfeiffer, Andreas; van Baak, Marleen A; Shepherd, Richard

2012-02-01

Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), this study investigates weight control in overweight and obese participants (27 kg/m(2)≤BMI<45 kg/m(2)) taking part in a dietary intervention trial targeted at weight loss maintenance (n=932). Respondents completed TPB measures investigating "weight gain prevention" at three time points. Correlation and regression analyses were used to investigate the relationship between TPB variables and weight regain. The TPB explained up to 27% variance in expectation, 14% in intention and 20% in desire scores. No relationship was established between intention, expectation or desire and behaviour at Time 1 or Time 2. Perceived need and subjective norm were found to be significantly related to weight regain, however, the model explained a maximum of 11% of the variation in weight regain. Better understanding of overweight individuals' trajectories of weight control is needed to help inform studies investigating people's weight regain behaviours. Future research using the TPB model to explain weight control should consider the likely behaviours being sought by individuals. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gain-Loss Framing and Choice: Separating Outcome Formulations from Descriptor Formulations.

PubMed

Mandel, David R.

2001-05-01

This article reexamines the assumptions underlying the disease problem used by Tversky and Kahneman (1981) to illustrate gain-loss formulation effects. It is argued that their reported effect may have been due to asymmetries in the ambiguity of the sure and risky prospects and to the entanglement of two distinct types of formulation manipulations: one having to do with the expected outcomes that are made explicit (positive vs negative) and the other having to do with the descriptors used to convey the relevant expected outcomes (lives saved/not saved vs lives lost/not lost). Two experiments using a formally equivalent problem in which these confounds were eliminated revealed no significant predictive effect of either descriptor or outcomes frames on choice, although a marginally significant framing effect was obtained in Experiment 1 when the signs of the two framing manipulations were congruent. Implications for prospect theory are discussed. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

Timing the state of light with anomalous dispersion and a gradient echo memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Jeremy B.

We study the effects of anomalous dispersion on the continuous-variable entanglement of EPR states (generated using four-wave mixing in 85 Rb) by sending one part of the state through a fast-light medium and measuring the state's quantum mutual information. We observe an advance in the maximum of the quantum mutual information between modes. In contrast, due to uncorrelated noise added by a small phase-insensitive gain, we do not observe any statistically significant advance in the leading edge of the mutual information. We also study the storage and retrieval of multiplexed optical signals in a Gradient Echo Memory (GEM) at relevant four-wave mixing frequencies in 85Rb. Temporal multiplexing capabilities are demonstrated by storing multiple classical images in the memory simultaneously and observing the expected first-in last-out order of recall without obvious cross-talk. We also develop a technique wherein selected portions of an image written into the memory can be spatially targeted for readout and erasure on demand. The effect of diffusion on the quality of the recalled images is characterized. Our results indicate that Raman-based atomic memories may serve as a flexible platform for the storage and retrieval of multiplexed optical signals.

Cross-National User Priorities for Housing Provision and Accessibility — Findings from the European innovAge Project

PubMed Central

Haak, Maria; Slaug, Björn; Oswald, Frank; Schmidt, Steven M.; Rimland, Joseph M.; Tomsone, Signe; Ladö, Thomas; Svensson, Torbjörn; Iwarsson, Susanne

2015-01-01

To develop an innovative information and communication technology (ICT) tool intended to help older people in their search for optimal housing solutions, a first step in the development process is to gain knowledge from the intended users. Thus the aim of this study was to deepen the knowledge about needs and expectations about housing options as expressed and prioritized by older people, people ageing with disabilities and professionals. A participatory design focus was adopted; 26 people with a range of functional limitations representing the user perspective and 15 professionals with a variety of backgrounds, participated in research circles that were conducted in four European countries. An additional 20 experts were invited as guests to the different research circle meetings. Three themes illustrating cross-national user priorities for housing provision and accessibility were identified: “Information barrier: accessible housing”, “Information barrier: housing adaptation benefits”, and “Cost barrier: housing adaptations”. In conclusion, early user involvement and identification of cross-national differences in priorities and housing options will strengthen the development of a user-friendly ICT tool that can empower older people and people with disabilities to be more active consumers regarding housing provision. PMID:25739003

Evaluating the Value of Information in the Presence of High Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

in this hierarchy is subsumed in the Knowledge and Information layers. If information with high expected value is identified, it then passes up...be, the higher is its value. Based on the idea of expected utility of asking a question [36], Nelson [31] discusses different approaches for...18] formalizes the expected value of a sample of information using the concept of pre-posterior analysis as the expected increase in utility by

The information trail of the 'Freshman 15'--a systematic review of a health myth within the research and popular literature.

PubMed

Brown, Cecelia

2008-03-01

How does health misinformation become part of the American and Canadian vernacular? Twenty-three databases were searched for articles discussing university freshmen weight gain. Research articles were examined for methodology, number and gender of the participants and weight gain. Popular press articles were reviewed for the types of information published: expert/anecdotal, weight gain, nutrition, exercise, health and alcohol. A timeline of article publication dates was generated. Twenty peer-reviewed, 19 magazine, 146 newspaper, and 141 university newspaper articles were discovered. Appearance of media articles about the 'Freshman 15' mirrored the peer-reviewed articles, yet the information did not reliably depict the research. Research indicated a weight gain of less than five pounds (2.268 kg), while half of the popular press publications claimed a 15-pound (6.804 kg) weight gain. The misinformation was frequently accompanied by information about achieving weight control through diet, exercise, stress reduction and alcohol avoidance. Understanding of how the concept of the 'Freshman 15' developed indicates that remediation efforts are needed. Collaborative efforts between health science and academic librarians, faculty and journalists to construct new paradigms for the translation of scientific evidence into information that individuals can use for decisions about health and well-being is suggested.

A Bayesian account of ‘hysteria’

PubMed Central

Adams, Rick A.; Brown, Harriet; Pareés, Isabel; Friston, Karl J.

2012-01-01

This article provides a neurobiological account of symptoms that have been called ‘hysterical’, ‘psychogenic’ or ‘medically unexplained’, which we will call functional motor and sensory symptoms. We use a neurobiologically informed model of hierarchical Bayesian inference in the brain to explain functional motor and sensory symptoms in terms of perception and action arising from inference based on prior beliefs and sensory information. This explanation exploits the key balance between prior beliefs and sensory evidence that is mediated by (body focused) attention, symptom expectations, physical and emotional experiences and beliefs about illness. Crucially, this furnishes an explanation at three different levels: (i) underlying neuromodulatory (synaptic) mechanisms; (ii) cognitive and experiential processes (attention and attribution of agency); and (iii) formal computations that underlie perceptual inference (representation of uncertainty or precision). Our explanation involves primary and secondary failures of inference; the primary failure is the (autonomous) emergence of a percept or belief that is held with undue certainty (precision) following top-down attentional modulation of synaptic gain. This belief can constitute a sensory percept (or its absence) or induce movement (or its absence). The secondary failure of inference is when the ensuing percept (and any somatosensory consequences) is falsely inferred to be a symptom to explain why its content was not predicted by the source of attentional modulation. This account accommodates several fundamental observations about functional motor and sensory symptoms, including: (i) their induction and maintenance by attention; (ii) their modification by expectation, prior experience and cultural beliefs and (iii) their involuntary and symptomatic nature. PMID:22641838

Incorporation of omics analyses into artificial gravity research for space exploration countermeasure development.

PubMed

Schmidt, Michael A; Goodwin, Thomas J; Pelligra, Ralph

The next major steps in human spaceflight include flyby, orbital, and landing missions to the Moon, Mars, and near earth asteroids. The first crewed deep space mission is expected to launch in 2022, which affords less than 7 years to address the complex question of whether and how to apply artificial gravity to counter the effects of prolonged weightlessness. Various phenotypic changes are demonstrated during artificial gravity experiments. However, the molecular dynamics (genotype and molecular phenotypes) that underlie these morphological, physiological, and behavioral phenotypes are far more complex than previously understood. Thus, targeted molecular assessment of subjects under various G conditions can be expected to miss important patterns of molecular variance that inform the more general phenotypes typically being measured. Use of omics methods can help detect changes across broad molecular networks, as various G-loading paradigms are applied. This will be useful in detecting off-target, or unanticipated effects of the different gravity paradigms applied to humans or animals. Insights gained from these approaches may eventually be used to inform countermeasure development or refine the deployment of existing countermeasures. This convergence of the omics and artificial gravity research communities may be critical if we are to develop the proper artificial gravity solutions under the severely compressed timelines currently established. Thus, the omics community may offer a unique ability to accelerate discovery, provide new insights, and benefit deep space missions in ways that have not been previously considered.

The changing face of informed surgical consent.

PubMed

Oosthuizen, J C; Burns, P; Timon, C

2012-03-01

To determine whether procedure-specific brochures improve patients' pre-operative knowledge, to determine the amount of information expected by patients during the consenting process, and to determine whether the recently proposed 'Request for Treatment' consenting process is viable on a large scale. A prospective, questionnaire-based study of 100 patients admitted for selected, elective surgical procedures. In total, 99 per cent of patients were satisfied with the information received in the out-patient department, regarding the proposed procedure. However, 38 per cent were unable to correctly state the nature of the surgery or specific procedure they were scheduled to undergo. Although the vast majority of patients were able to state the intended benefits to be gained from the procedure, only 54 per cent were able to list at least one potential complication, and 80 per cent indicated that they wished to be informed about all potential complications, even if these occurred in less than 1 per cent of cases. The introduction of procedure-specific brochures improved patients' pre-operative knowledge. Although the failings of current consenting practice are clear, the Request for Treatment consenting process would not appear to be a viable alternative because of the large number of patients unable to accurately recall the nature of the proposed surgery or potential complications, following consent counselling.

Immediate detailed feedback to test-enhanced learning: an effective online educational tool.

PubMed

Wojcikowski, Ken; Kirk, Leslie

2013-11-01

Test-enhanced learning has gained popularity because it is an effective way to increase retention of knowledge; provided the student receives the correct answer soon after the test is taken. To determine whether detailed feedback provided to test-enhanced learning questions is an effective online educational tool for improving performance on complex biomedical information exams. A series of online multiple choice tests were developed to test knowledge of biomedical information that students were expected to know after each patient-case. Following submission of the student answers, one cohort (n = 52) received answers only while the following year, a second cohort (n = 51) received the answers with detailed feedback explaining why each answer was correct or incorrect. Students in both groups progressed through the series of online tests with little assessor intervention. Students receiving the answers along with the explanations within their feedback performed significantly better in the final biomedical information exam than those students receiving correct answers only. This pilot study found that the detailed feedback to test-enhanced learning questions is an important online learning tool. The increase in student performance in the complex biomedical information exam in this study suggests that detailed feedback should be investigated not only for increasing knowledge, but also be investigated for its effect on retention and application of knowledge.

Sauti Za Wananchi "voice of the people": patient satisfaction on the medical wards at a Kenyan Referral Hospital.

PubMed

Stone, Geren Starr; Jerotich, Tecla Sum; Cheriro, Betsy Rono; Kiptoo, Robert Sitienei; Crowe, Susie Joanne; Koros, Elijah Kipkorir; Muthoni, Doreen Mutegi; Onalo, Paul Theodore

2014-01-01

Patient satisfaction is one indicator of healthcare quality. Few studies have examined the inpatient experiences in resource-scarce environments in sub-Saharan Africa. To examine patient satisfaction on the public medical wards at a Kenyan referral hospital, we performed a cross-sectional survey focused on patients' satisfaction with medical information and their relationship with staffing and hospital routine. Ratings of communication with providers, efforts to protect privacy, information about costs, food, and hospital environment were also elicited. Overall, the average patient satisfaction rating was 64.7, nearly midway between "average" and "good" Higher rated satisfaction was associated with higher self-rated general health scores and self-rated health gains during the hospitalization (p=0.023 and p=0.001). Women who shared a hospital bed found privacy to be "below average" to "poor" Most men (72.7%) felt information about costs was insufficient. Patients rated food and environmental quality favorably while also frequently suggesting these areas could be improved. Overall, patients expressed satisfaction with the care provided. These ratings may reflect modest patients' expectations as well as acceptable circumstances and performance. Women expressed concern about privacy while men expressed a desire for more information on costs. Inconsistencies were noted between patient ratings and free response answers.

Training needs for toxicity testing in the 21st century: a survey-informed analysis.

PubMed

Lapenna, Silvia; Gabbert, Silke; Worth, Andrew

2012-12-01

Current training needs on the use of alternative methods in predictive toxicology, including new approaches based on mode-of-action (MoA) and adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concepts, are expected to evolve rapidly. In order to gain insight into stakeholder preferences for training, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) conducted a single-question survey with twelve experts in regulatory agencies, industry, national research organisations, NGOs and consultancies. Stakeholder responses were evaluated by means of theory-based qualitative data analysis. Overall, a set of training topics were identified that relate both to general background information and to guidance for applying alternative testing methods. In particular, for the use of in silico methods, stakeholders emphasised the need for training on data integration and evaluation, in order to increase confidence in applying these methods for regulatory purposes. Although the survey does not claim to offer an exhaustive overview of the training requirements, its findings support the conclusion that the development of well-targeted and tailor-made training opportunities that inform about the usefulness of alternative methods, in particular those that offer practical experience in the application of in silico methods, deserves more attention. This should be complemented by transparent information and guidance on the interpretation of the results generated by these methods and software tools. 2012 FRAME.

The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life

PubMed Central

Eggleston, Karen N.; Fuchs, Victor R.

2013-01-01

The share of increases in life expectancy realized after age 65 was only about 20 percent at the beginning of the 20th century for the US and 16 other countries at comparable stages of development; but that share was close to 80 percent by the dawn of the 21st century, and is almost certainly approaching 100 percent asymptotically. This new demographic transition portends a diminished survival effect on working life. For high-income countries at the forefront of the longevity transition, expected lifetime labor force participation as a percent of life expectancy is declining. Innovative policies are needed if societies wish to preserve a positive relationship running from increasing longevity to greater prosperity. PMID:25076810

Novel health economic evaluation of a vaccination strategy to prevent HPV-related diseases: the BEST study.

PubMed

Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Costa, Silvano; Garganese, Giorgia; Picardo, Mauro; Drummond, Mike; Jonsson, Bengt; Scambia, Giovanni; Zweifel, Peter; Mennini, Francesco S

2012-12-01

The development of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related diseases is not understood perfectly and uncertainties associated with commonly utilized probabilistic models must be considered. The study assessed the cost-effectiveness of a quadrivalent-based multicohort HPV vaccination strategy within a Bayesian framework. A full Bayesian multicohort Markov model was used, in which all unknown quantities were associated with suitable probability distributions reflecting the state of currently available knowledge. These distributions were informed by observed data or expert opinion. The model cycle lasted 1 year, whereas the follow-up time horizon was 90 years. Precancerous cervical lesions, cervical cancers, and anogenital warts were considered as outcomes. The base case scenario (2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15 y) and other multicohort vaccination strategies (additional cohorts aged 18 and 25 y) were cost-effective, with a discounted cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained that corresponded to €12,013, €13,232, and €15,890 for vaccination programs based on 2, 3, and 4 cohorts, respectively. With multicohort vaccination strategies, the reduction in the number of HPV-related events occurred earlier (range, 3.8-6.4 y) when compared with a single cohort. The analysis of the expected value of information showed that the results of the model were subject to limited uncertainty (cost per patient = €12.6). This methodological approach is designed to incorporate the uncertainty associated with HPV vaccination. Modeling the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort vaccination program with Bayesian statistics confirmed the value for money of quadrivalent-based HPV vaccination. The expected value of information gave the most appropriate and feasible representation of the true value of this program.

A virtual microscope for academic medical education: the pate project.

PubMed

Brochhausen, Christoph; Winther, Hinrich B; Hundt, Christian; Schmitt, Volker H; Schömer, Elmar; Kirkpatrick, C James

2015-05-11

Whole-slide imaging (WSI) has become more prominent and continues to gain in importance in student teaching. Applications with different scope have been developed. Many of these applications have either technical or design shortcomings. To design a survey to determine student expectations of WSI applications for teaching histological and pathological diagnosis. To develop a new WSI application based on the findings of the survey. A total of 216 students were questioned about their experiences and expectations of WSI applications, as well as favorable and undesired features. The survey included 14 multiple choice and two essay questions. Based on the survey, we developed a new WSI application called Pate utilizing open source technologies. The survey sample included 216 students-62.0% (134) women and 36.1% (78) men. Out of 216 students, 4 (1.9%) did not disclose their gender. The best-known preexisting WSI applications included Mainzer Histo Maps (199/216, 92.1%), Histoweb Tübingen (16/216, 7.4%), and Histonet Ulm (8/216, 3.7%). Desired features for the students were latitude in the slides (190/216, 88.0%), histological (191/216, 88.4%) and pathological (186/216, 86.1%) annotations, points of interest (181/216, 83.8%), background information (146/216, 67.6%), and auxiliary informational texts (113/216, 52.3%). By contrast, a discussion forum was far less important (9/216, 4.2%) for the students. The survey revealed that the students appreciate a rich feature set, including WSI functionality, points of interest, auxiliary informational texts, and annotations. The development of Pate was significantly influenced by the findings of the survey. Although Pate currently has some issues with the Zoomify file format, it could be shown that Web technologies are capable of providing a high-performance WSI experience, as well as a rich feature set.

Let the consumer decide? The regulation of commercial genetic testing

PubMed Central

Levitt, D. M.

2001-01-01

Objectives—The development of predictive genetic tests provides a new area where consumers can gain knowledge of their health status and commercial opportunities. "Over-the-counter" or mail order genetic tests are most likely to provide information on carrier status or the risk of developing a multifactorial disease. The paper considers the social and ethical implications of individuals purchasing genetic tests and whether genetic information is different from other types of health information which individuals can obtain for themselves. Design—The discussion is illustrated by findings from a questionnaire survey of university students as potential consumers. Topics covered included what health tests they had already used, expectations of genetic tests, willingness to pay, who should have access to the results and whether there need to be restrictions on such tests. Sample—Six hundred and fifteen first-year students in the universities of Leuven, Cardiff, Central Lancashire, Vienna and Nijmegen studying either medicine or a non-science subject. Results—Students were enthusiastic about genetic tests and had high expectations of their accuracy and usefulness but most thought they should be available through the health service and a minority thought that some tests, for example for sex selection, should not be available at all. There were few differences in responses by sex or subject of study but some by country. The paper also considers ethical and social issues outside the scope of a questionnaire survey of this type. Conclusion—To address some of these issues the sale of genetic tests to individuals can be made subject to ethical guidelines or codes of practice, for example to protect vulnerable groups, but there are fundamental social and ethical questions which such guidelines cannot address. Key Words: Genetic tests • European • commercialisation PMID:11731604

Let the consumer decide? The regulation of commercial genetic testing.

PubMed

Levitt, D M

2001-12-01

The development of predictive genetic tests provides a new area where consumers can gain knowledge of their health status and commercial opportunities. "Over-the-counter" or mail order genetic tests are most likely to provide information on carrier status or the risk of developing a multifactorial disease. The paper considers the social and ethical implications of individuals purchasing genetic tests and whether genetic information is different from other types of health information which individuals can obtain for themselves. The discussion is illustrated by findings from a questionnaire survey of university students as potential consumers. Topics covered included what health tests they had already used, expectations of genetic tests, willingness to pay, who should have access to the results and whether there need to be restrictions on such tests. SAMPLE-Six hundred and fifteen first-year students in the universities of Leuven, Cardiff, Central Lancashire, Vienna and Nijmegen studying either medicine or a non-science subject. Students were enthusiastic about genetic tests and had high expectations of their accuracy and usefulness but most thought they should be available through the health service and a minority thought that some tests, for example for sex selection, should not be available at all. There were few differences in responses by sex or subject of study but some by country. The paper also considers ethical and social issues outside the scope of a questionnaire survey of this type. To address some of these issues the sale of genetic tests to individuals can be made subject to ethical guidelines or codes of practice, for example to protect vulnerable groups, but there are fundamental social and ethical questions which such guidelines cannot address.

Glucagon-like peptide-1 analogs against antipsychotic-induced weight gain: potential physiological benefits

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Antipsychotic-induced weight gain constitutes a major unresolved clinical problem which may ultimately be associated with reducing life expectancy by 25 years. Overweight is associated with brain deterioration, cognitive decline and poor quality of life, factors which are already compromised in normal weight patients with schizophrenia. Here we outline the current strategies against antipsychotic-induced weight gain, and we describe peripheral and cerebral effects of the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). Moreover, we account for similarities in brain changes between schizophrenia and overweight patients. Discussion Current interventions against antipsychotic-induced weight gain do not facilitate a substantial and lasting weight loss. GLP-1 analogs used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes are associated with significant and sustained weight loss in overweight patients. Potential effects of treating schizophrenia patients with antipsychotic-induced weight gain with GLP-1 analogs are discussed. Conclusions We propose that adjunctive treatment with GLP-1 analogs may constitute a new avenue to treat and prevent metabolic and cerebral deficiencies in schizophrenia patients with antipsychotic-induced weight gain. Clinical research to support this idea is highly warranted. PMID:22891821

Guidelines to indirectly measure and enhance detection efficiency of stationary PIT tag interrogation systems in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connolly, Patrick J.; Wolf, Keith; O'Neal, Jennifer S.

2010-01-01

With increasing use of passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and reliance on stationary PIT tag interrogation systems to monitor fish populations, guidelines are offered to inform users how best to use limited funding and human resources to create functional systems that maximize a desired level of detection and precision. The estimators of detection efficiency and their variability as described by Connolly et al. (2008) are explored over a span of likely performance metrics. These estimators were developed to estimate detection efficiency without relying on a known number of fish passing the system. I present graphical displays of the results derived from these estimators to show the potential efficiency and precision to be gained by adding an array or by increasing the number of PIT-tagged fish expected to move past an interrogation system.

Guidelines for calculating and enhancing detection efficiency of PIT tag interrogation systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connolly, Patrick J.

2010-01-01

With increasing use of passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and reliance on stationary PIT tag interrogation systems to monitor fish populations, guidelines are offered to inform users how best to use limited funding and human resources to create functional systems that maximize a desired level of detection and precision. The estimators of detection efficiency and their variability as described by Connolly et al. (2008) are explored over a span of likely performance metrics. These estimators were developed to estimate detection efficiency without relying on a known number of fish passing the system. I present graphical displays of the results derived from these estimators to show the potential efficiency and precision to be gained by adding an array or by increasing the number of PIT-tagged fish expected to move past an interrogation system.

Number-unconstrained quantum sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Morgan W.

2017-12-01

Quantum sensing is commonly described as a constrained optimization problem: maximize the information gained about an unknown quantity using a limited number of particles. Important sensors including gravitational wave interferometers and some atomic sensors do not appear to fit this description, because there is no external constraint on particle number. Here, we develop the theory of particle-number-unconstrained quantum sensing, and describe how optimal particle numbers emerge from the competition of particle-environment and particle-particle interactions. We apply the theory to optical probing of an atomic medium modeled as a resonant, saturable absorber, and observe the emergence of well-defined finite optima without external constraints. The results contradict some expectations from number-constrained quantum sensing and show that probing with squeezed beams can give a large sensitivity advantage over classical strategies when each is optimized for particle number.

Persuasion, Influence, and Value: Perspectives from Communication and Social Neuroscience.

PubMed

Falk, Emily; Scholz, Christin

2018-01-04

Opportunities to persuade and be persuaded are ubiquitous. What determines whether influence spreads and takes hold? This review provides an overview of evidence for the central role of subjective valuation in persuasion and social influence for both propagators and receivers of influence. We first review evidence that decisions to communicate information are determined by the subjective value a communicator expects to gain from sharing. We next review evidence that the effects of social influence and persuasion on receivers, in turn, arise from changes in the receiver's subjective valuation of objects, ideas, and behaviors. We then review evidence that self-related and social considerations are two key inputs to the value calculation in both communicators and receivers. Finally, we highlight biological coupling between communicators and receivers as a mechanism through which perceptions of value can be transmitted.

What motivates health professionals? Opportunities to gain greater insight from theory.

PubMed

Buetow, Stephen

2007-07-01

Health care policy-makers and researchers need to pay more attention to understanding the influence of motivation on professional behaviour. Goal setting theory, including two hypotheses - the business case and the pride case - dominates current attempts to motivate professionals. However, the predominance of goal setting theory stifles other approaches to conceptualizing professional motivation. These approaches include other cognitive theories of motivation, such as self-determination theory (concerned with how to use extrinsic rewards that enhance intrinsic motivation), as well as content, psychoanalytic and environmental theories. A valuable opportunity exists to develop and test such theories in addition to possible hybrids, for example, by elaborating goal setting theory in health care. The results can be expected to inform health policy and motivate individual professionals, groups, organizations and workforces to improve and deliver high quality care.

Emerging markets for satellite data communications in the public service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, J. G.

1978-01-01

The paper discusses some of the current and potential markets for satellite data communications as projected by the Public Service Satellite Consortium (PSSC). Organizations in the public service sector are divided into three categories, depending on their expected benefits and organizational changes due to increased satellite telecommunications use: A - modest institutional adjustments are necessary and significant productivity gains are likely; B - institutional requirements picture is promising, but more information is needed to assess benefits and risk; and C - major institutional adjustments are needed, risks are high but possible benefits are high. These criteria are applied to the U.S. health care system, continuing education, equipment maintenance, libraries, environmental monitoring, and other potential markets. The potential revenues are seen to be significant, but what is needed is a cooperative effort by common carriers and major public service institutions to aggregate the market.

Quality evaluation of motion-compensated edge artifacts in compressed video.

PubMed

Leontaris, Athanasios; Cosman, Pamela C; Reibman, Amy R

2007-04-01

Little attention has been paid to an impairment common in motion-compensated video compression: the addition of high-frequency (HF) energy as motion compensation displaces blocking artifacts off block boundaries. In this paper, we employ an energy-based approach to measure this motion-compensated edge artifact, using both compressed bitstream information and decoded pixels. We evaluate the performance of our proposed metric, along with several blocking and blurring metrics, on compressed video in two ways. First, ordinal scales are evaluated through a series of expectations that a good quality metric should satisfy: the objective evaluation. Then, the best performing metrics are subjectively evaluated. The same subjective data set is finally used to obtain interval scales to gain more insight. Experimental results show that we accurately estimate the percentage of the added HF energy in compressed video.

Can and should value-based pricing be applied to molecular diagnostics?

PubMed

Garau, Martina; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis; Housman, Laura; Ossa, Diego

2013-01-01

Current pricing and reimbursement systems for diagnostics are not efficient. Prices for diagnostics are often driven by administrative practices and expected production cost. The purpose of the paper is to discuss how a value-based pricing framework being used to ensure efficient use and price of medicines could also be applied to diagnostics. Diagnostics not only facilitates health gain and cost savings, but also information to guide patients' decisions on interventions and their future 'behaviors'. For value assessment processes we recommend a two-part approach. Companion diagnostics introduced at the launch of the drug should be assessed through new drug assessment processes considering a broad range of value elements and a balanced analysis of diagnostic impacts. A separate diagnostic-dedicated committee using value-based pricing principles should review other diagnostics lying outside the companion diagnostics-and-drug 'at-launch' situation.

Stopping trials early for commercial reasons: the risk–benefit relationship as a moral compass

PubMed Central

Iltis, A

2005-01-01

Decisions by industry sponsors to end clinical trials early for commercial reasons have been the subject of controversy. I argue that the principal consideration in assessing these decisions ought to be the way in which the termination would affect the trial's risk–benefit relationship. If there is not yet sufficient benefit to be gained from the study to offset the risks to which participants were exposed and it is expected that important scientific information would be obtained if the trial were continued, early termination constitutes an unethical alteration of the risk–benefit relationship. This violates the grounds on which permission is given to conduct human research, patients consent to participate, and investigators agree to conduct studies. These knowable and avoidable changes in risk–benefit relationship should generally be seen as impermissible. PMID:15994362

Societal preferences for distributive justice in the allocation of health care resources: a latent class discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Skedgel, Chris; Wailoo, Allan; Akehurst, Ron

2015-01-01

Economic theory suggests that resources should be allocated in a way that produces the greatest outputs, on the grounds that maximizing output allows for a redistribution that could benefit everyone. In health care, this is known as QALY (quality-adjusted life-year) maximization. This justification for QALY maximization may not hold, though, as it is difficult to reallocate health. Therefore, the allocation of health care should be seen as a matter of distributive justice as well as efficiency. A discrete choice experiment was undertaken to test consistency with the principles of QALY maximization and to quantify the willingness to trade life-year gains for distributive justice. An empirical ethics process was used to identify attributes that appeared relevant and ethically justified: patient age, severity (decomposed into initial quality and life expectancy), final health state, duration of benefit, and distributional concerns. Only 3% of respondents maximized QALYs with every choice, but scenarios with larger aggregate QALY gains were chosen more often and a majority of respondents maximized QALYs in a majority of their choices. However, respondents also appeared willing to prioritize smaller gains to preferred groups over larger gains to less preferred groups. Marginal analyses found a statistically significant preference for younger patients and a wider distribution of gains, as well as an aversion to patients with the shortest life expectancy or a poor final health state. These results support the existence of an equity-efficiency tradeoff and suggest that well-being could be enhanced by giving priority to programs that best satisfy societal preferences. Societal preferences could be incorporated through the use of explicit equity weights, although more research is required before such weights can be used in priority setting. © The Author(s) 2014.

Winning and losing: differences in reward and punishment sensitivity between smokers and nonsmokers.

PubMed

Martin, Laura E; Cox, Lisa S; Brooks, William M; Savage, Cary R

2014-01-01

Smokers show increased brain activation in reward processing regions in response to smoking-related cues, yet few studies have examined secondary rewards not associated with smoking (i.e., money). Inconsistencies exist in the studies that do examine secondary rewards with some studies showing increased brain activation in reward processing brain regions, while others show decreased activation or no difference in activation between smokers and nonsmokers. The goal of the current study is to see if smokers process the evaluation and delivery of equally salient real world rewards similarly or differently than nonsmokers. The current study employed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine brain responses in smokers and nonsmokers during the evaluation and delivery of monetary gains and losses. In comparison to nonsmokers, smokers showed increased activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex to the evaluation of anticipated monetary losses and the brain response. Moreover, smokers compared to nonsmokers showed decreased activation in the inferior frontal gyrus to the delivery of expected monetary gains. Brain activations to both the evaluation of anticipated monetary losses and the delivery of expected monetary gains correlated with increased self-reported smoking craving to relieve negative withdrawal symptoms and craving related to positive aspects of smoking, respectively. Together these results indicate that smokers are hyperresponsive to the evaluation of anticipated punishment and hyporesponsive to the delivery of expected rewards. Although further research is needed, this hypersensitivity to punishments coupled with increased craving may negatively impact quit attempts as smokers anticipate the negative withdrawal symptoms associated with quitting.

Can LENR Energy Gains Exceed 1000?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, David J.

2011-03-01

Energy gain is defined as the energy realized from reactions divided by the energy required to produce those reactions. Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR) have already been measured to significantly exceed the energy gain of 10 projected from ITER,possibly 15 years from now. Electrochemical experiments using the Pd-D system have shown energy gains exceeding 10. Gas phase experiments with the Ni-H system were reported to yield energy gains of over 100. Neither of these reports has been adequately verified or reproduced. However, the question in the title still deserves consideration. If, as thought by many, it is possible to trigger nuclear reactions that yield MeV energies with chemical energies of the order of eV, then the most optimistic expectation is that LENR gains could approach one million. Hence, the very tentative answer to the question above is yes. However, if LENR could be initiated with some energy cost, and then continue to ``burn,'' very high energy gains might be realized. Consider a match and a pile of dry logs. The phenomenon termed ``heat after death'' will be examined to see if it might be the initial evidence for nuclear ``burning.''

Influence of wave-packet dynamics on the medium gain of an atomic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delagnes, J. C.; Bouchene, M. A.

2007-10-01

A sequence of two femtosecond pulses—a strong driving π -polarized pulse and a weak propagating σ -polarized pulse—excites resonantly the S1/2→P1/2 transition of an atomic system. Strong interference effects take place in the system between absorption and emission paths leading to a substantial amplification of the σ pulse. We study the influence of the fine structure on the medium gain when the contribution of the off-resonant P3/2 level is taken into account. A drastic reduction of the medium gain is obtained. This effect is explained within the bright-state dark-state formalism where the strong driving pulse creates a wave packet that can be trapped in a state—the bright state—leading to a significant reduction of the gain for the σ pulse. Finally, we also show that periodical gain dependence with the driving pulse energy exhibits a significant change in its period value (compared with expected Rabi oscillations).

Graphene Distributed Amplifiers: Generating Desirable Gain for Graphene Field-Effect Transistors

PubMed Central

Lyu, Hongming; Lu, Qi; Huang, Yilin; Ma, Teng; Zhang, Jinyu; Wu, Xiaoming; Yu, Zhiping; Ren, Wencai; Cheng, Hui-Ming; Wu, Huaqiang; Qian, He

2015-01-01

Ever since its discovery, graphene bears great expectations in high frequency electronics due to its irreplaceably high carrier mobility. However, it has long been blamed for the weakness in generating gains, which seriously limits its pace of development. Distributed amplification, on the other hand, has successfully been used in conventional semiconductors to increase the amplifiers’ gain-bandwidth product. In this paper, distributed amplification is first applied to graphene. Transmission lines phase-synchronize paralleled graphene field-effect transistors (GFETs), combining the gain of each stage in an additive manner. Simulations were based on fabricated GFETs whose fT ranged from 8.5 GHz to 10.5 GHz and fmax from 12 GHz to 14 GHz. A simulated four-stage graphene distributed amplifier achieved up to 4 dB gain and 3.5 GHz bandwidth, which could be realized with future IC processes. A PCB level graphene distributed amplifier was fabricated as a proof of circuit concept. PMID:26634442

Gaining informed consent for blood transfusion.

PubMed

Whitmore, Emma; Gerrard, Rebecca; Coffey, Kairen

Transfusion of blood and blood products is a common procedure that has significant benefits but is also associated with serious risks. Patients needing blood transfusion require full information on these benefits and risks in order to make informed consent. This article, the first in a five-part series, discusses the process of gaining consent and resources available to support patients and health professionals in this.

Effectiveness of a normative nutrition intervention (diet, physical activity and breastfeeding) on maternal nutrition and offspring growth: the Chilean maternal and infant nutrition cohort study (CHiMINCs).

PubMed

Garmendia, Maria Luisa; Corvalan, Camila; Araya, Marcela; Casanello, Paola; Kusanovic, Juan Pedro; Uauy, Ricardo

2015-08-18

Maternal obesity before and during pregnancy predicts maternal and infant risks of obesity and its associated metabolic conditions. Dietary and physical activity recommendations during pregnancy as well as weight monitoring are currently available in the Chilean primary health care system. However some of these recommendations are not updated and most of them are poorly implemented. We seek to assess the effectiveness of an intervention that enhances the implementation of updated nutrition health care standards (diet, physical activity, and breastfeeding promotion) during pregnancy on maternal weight gain and infant growth. Cluster randomized controlled trial. The cluster units will be 12 primary health care centers from two counties (La Florida and Puente Alto) from the South-East Area of Santiago randomly allocated to: 1) enhanced nutrition health care standards (intervention group) or 2) routine care (control group). Women seeking prenatal care before 15 weeks of gestation, residing within a catchment area of selected health centers, and who express that they are not planning to change residence will be invited to participate in the study. Pregnant women classified as high risk according to the Chilean norms (i.e age <16 or >40 years, multiple gestation, pre-gestational medical conditions, previous pregnancy-related issues) and/or underweight will be excluded. Pregnant women who attend intervened health care centers starting at their first prenatal visit will receive advice regarding optimal weight gain during pregnancy and diet and physical activity counseling-support. Pregnant women who attend control health clinics will receive routine antenatal care according to national guidelines. We plan to recruit 200 women in each health center. Assuming a 20% loss to follow up, we expect to include 960 women per arm. 1) Achievement of adequate weight gain based on IOM 2009 recommendations and adequate glycaemic control at 24-28 weeks of pregnancy according to ADA 2011, and 2) healthy infant growth during the first year of age based on WHO standards. We expect that the intervention will benefit the participants in achieving adequate weight gain & metabolic control during pregnancy as well as adequate infant growth as a result of an increased impact of standard nutrition and health care practices. Gathered information should contribute to a better understanding of how to develop effective interventions to halt the maternal obesity epidemic and its associated co-morbidities in the Chilean population. Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01916603.

The significance of GW-SW interactions for biogeochemical processes in sandy streambeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnon, Shai; De Falco, Natalie; Fox, Aryeh; Laube, Gerrit; Schmidt, Christian; Fleckenstein, Jan; Boano, Fulvio

2015-04-01

Stream-groundwater interactions have a major impact on hyporheic exchange fluxes in sandy streambeds. However, the physical complexity of natural streams has limited our ability to study these types of interactions systematically, and to evaluate their importance to biogeochemical processes and nutrient cycling. In this work we were able to quantify the effect of losing and gaining fluxes on hyporheic exchange and nutrient cycling in homogeneous and heterogeneous streambeds by combining experiments in laboratory flumes and modeling. Tracer experiments for measuring hyporheic exchange were done using dyes and NaCl under various combinations of overlying water velocity and losing or gaining fluxes. Nutrient cycling experiments were conducted after growing a benthic biofilm by spiking with Sodium Benzoate (as a source of labile dissolved organic carbon, DOC) and measuring DOC and oxygen dynamics. The combination of experimental observations and modeling revealed that interfacial transport increases with the streambed hydraulic conductivity and proportional to the square of the overlying water velocity. Hyporheic exchange fluxes under losing and gaining flow conditions were similar, and became smaller when the losing or gaining flux increases. Increasing in streambed hydraulic conductivity led to higher hyporheic fluxes and reduction in the effects of losing and gaining flow conditions to constrain exchange. Despite the evident effect of flow conditions on hyporheic exchange, labile DOC uptake was positively linked to increasing overlying water velocity but was not affected by losing and gaining fluxes. This is because microbial aerobic activity was taking place at the upper few millimeters of the streambed as shown by local oxygen consumption rates, which was measured using microelectrodes. Based on modeling work, it is expected that GW-SW interaction will be more significant for less labile DOC and anaerobic processes. Our results enable us to study systematically the coupling between flow conditions and biogeochemical processes under highly controlled physical and chemical conditions and are expected to improve our understanding of nutrient cycling in streams.

Educational Attainment and Gestational Weight Gain among U.S. Mothers.

PubMed

Cohen, Alison K; Kazi, Chandni; Headen, Irene; Rehkopf, David H; Hendrick, C Emily; Patil, Divya; Abrams, Barbara

2016-01-01

Education is an important social determinant of many health outcomes, but the relationship between educational attainment and the amount of weight gained over the course of a woman's pregnancy (gestational weight gain [GWG]) has not been established clearly. We used data from 1979 through 2010 for women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979) cohort (n = 6,344 pregnancies from 2,769 women). We used generalized estimating equations to estimate the association between educational attainment and GWG adequacy (as defined by 2009 Institute of Medicine guidelines), controlling for diverse social factors from across the life course (e.g., income, wealth, educational aspirations and expectations) and considering effect measure modification by race/ethnicity and prepregnancy overweight status. In most cases, women with more education had increased odds of gaining a recommended amount of gestational weight, independent of educational aspirations and educational expectations and relatively robust to sensitivity analyses. This trend manifested itself in a few different ways. Those with less education had higher odds of inadequate GWG than those with more education. Among those who were not overweight before pregnancy, those with less education had higher odds of excessive GWG than college graduates. Among women who were White, those with less than a high school degree had higher odds of excessive GWG than those with more education. The relationship between educational attainment and GWG is nuanced and nonlinear. Copyright © 2016 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women between 1998 and 2008

PubMed Central

Nepomuceno, Marília Regina; Turra, Cássio Maldonado

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze conditional and unconditional healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women. METHODS This cross-sectional study used the intercensal technique to estimate, in the absence of longitudinal data, healthy life expectancy that is conditional and unconditional on the individual’s current health status. The data used were obtained from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (National Household Sample Survey) of 1998, 2003, and 2008. This sample comprised 11,171; 13,694; and 16,259 women aged 65 years or more, respectively. Complete mortality tables from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics for the years 2001 and 2006 were also used. The definition of health status was based on the difficulty in performing activities of daily living. RESULTS The remaining lifetime was strongly dependent on the current health status of the older women. Between 1998 and 2003, the amount of time lived with disability for healthy women at age 65 was 9.8%. This percentage increased to 66.2% when the women already presented some disability at age 65. Temporal analysis showed that the active life expectancy of the women at age 65 increased between 1998-2003 (19.3 years) and 2003-2008 (19.4 years). However, life years gained have been mainly focused on the unhealthy state. CONCLUSIONS Analysis of conditional and unconditional life expectancy indicated that live years gained are a result of the decline of mortality in unhealthy states. This pattern suggests that there has been no reduction in morbidity among older women in Brazil between 1998 and 2008. PMID:25741653

D-Optimal Experimental Design for Contaminant Source Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sai Baba, A. K.; Alexanderian, A.

2016-12-01

Contaminant source identification seeks to estimate the release history of a conservative solute given point concentration measurements at some time after the release. This can be mathematically expressed as an inverse problem, with a linear observation operator or a parameter-to-observation map, which we tackle using a Bayesian approach. Acquisition of experimental data can be laborious and expensive. The goal is to control the experimental parameters - in our case, the sparsity of the sensors, to maximize the information gain subject to some physical or budget constraints. This is known as optimal experimental design (OED). D-optimal experimental design seeks to maximize the expected information gain, and has long been considered the gold standard in the statistics community. Our goal is to develop scalable methods for D-optimal experimental designs involving large-scale PDE constrained problems with high-dimensional parameter fields. A major challenge for the OED, is that a nonlinear optimization algorithm for the D-optimality criterion requires repeated evaluation of objective function and gradient involving the determinant of large and dense matrices - this cost can be prohibitively expensive for applications of interest. We propose novel randomized matrix techniques that bring down the computational costs of the objective function and gradient evaluations by several orders of magnitude compared to the naive approach. The effect of randomized estimators on the accuracy and the convergence of the optimization solver will be discussed. The features and benefits of our new approach will be demonstrated on a challenging model problem from contaminant source identification involving the inference of the initial condition from spatio-temporal observations in a time-dependent advection-diffusion problem.

Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

PubMed Central

Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

2016-01-01

Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1–10 points with the goal being to maximize their score on a later memory test. Half of the participants were told to expect a recognition test after each list, while the other half were told to expect a recall test. After several lists of receiving tests congruent with expectations, participants studying for a recognition test instead received an unexpected recall test. In Experiment 1, participants who had studied for a recognition test recalled less of the valuable information than participants anticipating the recall format. These participants continued to attend less to item value on future (expected) recall tests than participants who had only ever experienced recall testing. When the recognition tests were made more demanding in Experiment 2, value-based recall improved relative to Experiment 1: though memory for the valuable information remained superior when participants studied with the expectation of having to recall the information, there were no longer significant differences after accounting for recall testing experience. Thus, recall-based testing encouraged strategic, value-based encoding and enhanced retrieval of important information, while recognition testing in some cases limited value-based study and memory. These results extend prior work concerning the impact of testing expectations on memory, offering further insight into how people study important information. PMID:28095010

Framing and personalizing informed consent to prevent negative expectations: An experimental pilot study.

PubMed

Heisig, Sarah R; Shedden-Mora, Meike C; Hidalgo, Pablo; Nestoriuc, Yvonne

2015-10-01

Informing patients about medical treatments and their possible side effects is ethically and legally obligatory but may trigger negative expectations and nocebo-related side effects. This pilot study aims to investigate the effect of different informed consent procedures on treatment expectations for adjuvant breast cancer treatments (Study 1: endocrine therapy; Study 2: chemotherapy). Using an experimental 2-factorial design, healthy women were informed about endocrine therapy (n = 60) or chemotherapy (n = 64) within a hypothetical scenario. Information was framed with or without treatment benefit information and delivered in a personalized or standardized interaction. Primary outcomes were necessity-concern beliefs about the treatment and side-effect expectations, secondary outcomes were decisional conflicts. In Study 1, side-effect expectations (η²p= .08) and decisional conflicts (η²p = .07) were lower when framed treatment information was given. Providing personalized information resulted in more functional necessity-concern beliefs (η²p = .06) and lower decisional conflicts (η²p = .07). Personalizing and framing of information resulted in more functional necessity-concern beliefs (η²p = .10) and lower decisional conflicts. In Study 2, necessity-concern beliefs were more functional with framing (η²p = .06). Participants in the personalized groups reported lower decisional conflicts (η²p = .06). No differences in side-effect expectations were revealed. This is the first study to provide evidence for optimized treatment expectations through altered informed consent strategies. The results emphasize that framing and personalizing informed consent can positively influence treatment expectations and reduce decisional conflicts. However, generalizations are impaired by the study's pilot character. The potential to prevent nocebo responses in clinical practice should be analyzed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Do you want the good news or the bad news? Gain- versus loss-framed messages following health risk information: The effects on leisure time physical activity beliefs and cognitions.

PubMed

Bassett-Gunter, Rebecca L; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A; Latimer-Cheung, Amy E

2013-12-01

The primary purpose was to examine the relative effectiveness of chronic disease and psychological health risk information combined with gain- versus loss-framed leisure time physical activity (LTPA) messages for changing perceived personal risk, LTPA response efficacy (i.e., the belief that LTPA can effectively reduce risk), and LTPA intentions. A secondary purpose was to explore the relationship between message framing and cognitive processing. Baseline assessments of perceived risk for inactivity-related disease and psychological health problems, LTPA response efficacy, and intentions were measured among 96 individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). Participants read population-specific information about the risk for inactivity-related disease and psychological health problems following SCI, and perceived risk was reassessed. Participants were then randomized to read LTPA response efficacy messages emphasizing the benefits of LTPA (gain framed) or the risks of inactivity (loss framed). Immediately following message exposure, cognitive processing (i.e., thought listing and message recall), LTPA response efficacy, and LTPA intentions were assessed. Changes in perceived risk were observed following exposure to health risk information. Changes in LTPA response efficacy and intentions were greater following loss-framed messages targeting psychological health compared with gain-framed messages. Greater cognitive processing was observed following loss-framed messages compared with gain-framed messages. Following exposure to psychological health risk information, loss-framed messages may be more effective than gain-framed messages for eliciting cognitive processing and changing LTPA beliefs and intentions.

Almost All Antipsychotics Result in Weight Gain: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Bak, Maarten; Fransen, Annemarie; Janssen, Jouke; van Os, Jim; Drukker, Marjan

2014-01-01

Introduction Antipsychotics (AP) induce weight gain. However, reviews and meta-analyses generally are restricted to second generation antipsychotics (SGA) and do not stratify for duration of AP use. It is hypothesised that patients gain more weight if duration of AP use is longer. Method A meta-analysis was conducted of clinical trials of AP that reported weight change. Outcome measures were body weight change, change in BMI and clinically relevant weight change (7% weight gain or loss). Duration of AP-use was stratified as follows: ≤6 weeks, 6–16 weeks, 16–38 weeks and >38 weeks. Forest plots stratified by AP as well as by duration of use were generated and results were summarised in figures. Results 307 articles met inclusion criteria. The majority were AP switch studies. Almost all AP showed a degree of weight gain after prolonged use, except for amisulpride, aripiprazole and ziprasidone, for which prolonged exposure resulted in negligible weight change. The level of weight gain per AP varied from discrete to severe. Contrary to expectations, switch of AP did not result in weight loss for amisulpride, aripiprazole or ziprasidone. In AP-naive patients, weight gain was much more pronounced for all AP. Conclusion Given prolonged exposure, virtually all AP are associated with weight gain. The rational of switching AP to achieve weight reduction may be overrated. In AP-naive patients, weight gain is more pronounced. PMID:24763306

Almost all antipsychotics result in weight gain: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bak, Maarten; Fransen, Annemarie; Janssen, Jouke; van Os, Jim; Drukker, Marjan

2014-01-01

Antipsychotics (AP) induce weight gain. However, reviews and meta-analyses generally are restricted to second generation antipsychotics (SGA) and do not stratify for duration of AP use. It is hypothesised that patients gain more weight if duration of AP use is longer. A meta-analysis was conducted of clinical trials of AP that reported weight change. Outcome measures were body weight change, change in BMI and clinically relevant weight change (7% weight gain or loss). Duration of AP-use was stratified as follows: ≤6 weeks, 6-16 weeks, 16-38 weeks and >38 weeks. Forest plots stratified by AP as well as by duration of use were generated and results were summarised in figures. 307 articles met inclusion criteria. The majority were AP switch studies. Almost all AP showed a degree of weight gain after prolonged use, except for amisulpride, aripiprazole and ziprasidone, for which prolonged exposure resulted in negligible weight change. The level of weight gain per AP varied from discrete to severe. Contrary to expectations, switch of AP did not result in weight loss for amisulpride, aripiprazole or ziprasidone. In AP-naive patients, weight gain was much more pronounced for all AP. Given prolonged exposure, virtually all AP are associated with weight gain. The rational of switching AP to achieve weight reduction may be overrated. In AP-naive patients, weight gain is more pronounced.

Cost-effectiveness of using a gene expression profiling test to aid in identifying the primary tumour in patients with cancer of unknown primary.

PubMed

Hannouf, M B; Winquist, E; Mahmud, S M; Brackstone, M; Sarma, S; Rodrigues, G; Rogan, P; Hoch, J S; Zaric, G S

2017-06-01

We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a 2000-gene-expression profiling (GEP) test to help identify the primary tumor site when clinicopathological diagnostic evaluation was inconclusive in patients with cancer of unknown primary (CUP). We built a decision-analytic-model to project the lifetime clinical and economic consequences of different clinical management strategies for CUP. The model was parameterized using follow-up data from the Manitoba Cancer Registry, cost data from Manitoba Health administrative databases and secondary sources. The 2000-GEP-based strategy compared to current clinical practice resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $44,151 per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. The total annual-budget impact was $36.2 million per year. A value-of-information analysis revealed that the expected value of perfect information about the test's clinical impact was $4.2 million per year. The 2000-GEP test should be considered for adoption in CUP. Field evaluations of the test are associated with a large societal benefit.

Efficient Bayesian experimental design for contaminant source identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Zeng, Lingzao; Chen, Cheng; Chen, Dingjiang; Wu, Laosheng

2015-01-01

In this study, an efficient full Bayesian approach is developed for the optimal sampling well location design and source parameters identification of groundwater contaminants. An information measure, i.e., the relative entropy, is employed to quantify the information gain from concentration measurements in identifying unknown parameters. In this approach, the sampling locations that give the maximum expected relative entropy are selected as the optimal design. After the sampling locations are determined, a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate unknown parameters. In both the design and estimation, the contaminant transport equation is required to be solved many times to evaluate the likelihood. To reduce the computational burden, an interpolation method based on the adaptive sparse grid is utilized to construct a surrogate for the contaminant transport equation. The approximated likelihood can be evaluated directly from the surrogate, which greatly accelerates the design and estimation process. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated through numerical case studies. It is shown that the methods can be used to assist in both single sampling location and monitoring network design for contaminant source identifications in groundwater.

Operational experience of the OC-OTEC experiments at NELH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Link, H

1989-02-01

The Solar Energy Research Institute, under funding and program direction from the US Department of Energy, has been operating a small-scale test apparatus to investigate key components of open- cycle ocean thermal energy conversion (OC-OTEC). The apparatus started operations in October 1987 and continues to provide valuable information on heat-and mass-transfer processes in evaporators and condensers, gas sorption processes as seawater is depressurized and repressurized, and control and instrumentation characteristics of open-cycle systems. Although other test facilities have been used to study some of these interactions, this is the largest apparatus of its kind to use seawater since Georges Claude`smore » efforts in 1926. The information obtained from experiments conducted in this apparatus is being used to design a larger scale experiment in which a positive net power production is expected to be demonstrated for the first time with OC-OTEC. This paper describes the apparatus, the major tests conducted during its first 18 months of operation, and the experience gained in OC-OTEC system operation. 13 refs., 8 figs.« less

Youth's Engagement as Scientists and Engineers in an Afterschool Making and Tinkering Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Amber; Burris, Alexandra; Maltese, Adam

2017-11-01

Making and tinkering is currently gaining traction as an interdisciplinary approach to education. However, little is known about how these activities and explorations in formal and informal learning spaces address the content and skills common to professionals across science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. As such, the purpose of this qualitative study was to examine how youth were engaged in the eight science and engineering practices outlined within the US Next Generation Science Standards within an informal learning environment utilizing principles of tinkering within the daily activities. Findings highlight how youth and facilitators engaged and enacted in practices common to scientists and engineers. Yet, in this study, enactment of these practices "looked" differently than might be expected in a formal learning environment such as a laboratory setting. For example, in this setting, students were observed carrying out trials on their design as opposed to carrying out a formal scientific investigation. Results also highlight instances of doing science and engineering not explicitly stated within parameters of formal education documents in the USA, such as experiences with failure.

Effects of deception in social networks

PubMed Central

Iñiguez, Gerardo; Govezensky, Tzipe; Dunbar, Robin; Kaski, Kimmo; Barrio, Rafael A.

2014-01-01

Honesty plays a crucial role in any situation where organisms exchange information or resources. Dishonesty can thus be expected to have damaging effects on social coherence if agents cannot trust the information or goods they receive. However, a distinction is often drawn between prosocial lies (‘white’ lies) and antisocial lying (i.e. deception for personal gain), with the former being considered much less destructive than the latter. We use an agent-based model to show that antisocial lying causes social networks to become increasingly fragmented. Antisocial dishonesty thus places strong constraints on the size and cohesion of social communities, providing a major hurdle that organisms have to overcome (e.g. by evolving counter-deception strategies) in order to evolve large, socially cohesive communities. In contrast, white lies can prove to be beneficial in smoothing the flow of interactions and facilitating a larger, more integrated network. Our results demonstrate that these group-level effects can arise as emergent properties of interactions at the dyadic level. The balance between prosocial and antisocial lies may set constraints on the structure of social networks, and hence the shape of society as a whole. PMID:25056625

Allelic Expression of Deleterious Protein-Coding Variants across Human Tissues

PubMed Central

Kukurba, Kimberly R.; Zhang, Rui; Li, Xin; Smith, Kevin S.; Knowles, David A.; How Tan, Meng; Piskol, Robert; Lek, Monkol; Snyder, Michael; MacArthur, Daniel G.; Li, Jin Billy; Montgomery, Stephen B.

2014-01-01

Personal exome and genome sequencing provides access to loss-of-function and rare deleterious alleles whose interpretation is expected to provide insight into individual disease burden. However, for each allele, accurate interpretation of its effect will depend on both its penetrance and the trait's expressivity. In this regard, an important factor that can modify the effect of a pathogenic coding allele is its level of expression; a factor which itself characteristically changes across tissues. To better inform the degree to which pathogenic alleles can be modified by expression level across multiple tissues, we have conducted exome, RNA and deep, targeted allele-specific expression (ASE) sequencing in ten tissues obtained from a single individual. By combining such data, we report the impact of rare and common loss-of-function variants on allelic expression exposing stronger allelic bias for rare stop-gain variants and informing the extent to which rare deleterious coding alleles are consistently expressed across tissues. This study demonstrates the potential importance of transcriptome data to the interpretation of pathogenic protein-coding variants. PMID:24786518

Long-term irradiance observation and short-term flare prediction with LYRA on PROBA2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dammasch, Ingolf; Dominique, Marie; West, Matthew; Katsiyannis, Thanassis; Ryan, Daniel; Wauters, Laurence

The solar radiometer LYRA on board the ESA micro-satellite PROBA2 has observed the Sun continuously since January 2010 in various spectral band passes, and has gained a considerable data base. Two of the LYRA channels cover the irradiance between soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet. The variation of the sunspot number appears to show a strong similarity with the variation of these channels, when their long-range development is taken into account. The same holds for SXR levels observed by the GOES satellites. Due to LYRA's bandwidth and coverage of various active-region temperatures, its relatively smooth development may yield some information on the structure of the current solar cycle. On its websites, LYRA presents not only EUV and SXR time series in near real-time, but also information on flare parameters and long-term irradiance and sunspot levels. It will be demonstrated whether it is possible to aid space weather forecast with these statistical data, especially for the prediction of expected flare strength on a daily basis.

A rational decision rule with extreme events.

PubMed

Basili, Marcello

2006-12-01

Risks induced by extreme events are characterized by small or ambiguous probabilities, catastrophic losses, or windfall gains. Through a new functional, that mimics the restricted Bayes-Hurwicz criterion within the Choquet expected utility approach, it is possible to represent the decisionmaker behavior facing both risky (large and reliable probability) and extreme (small or ambiguous probability) events. A new formalization of the precautionary principle (PP) is shown and a new functional, which encompasses both extreme outcomes and expectation of all the possible results for every act, is claimed.

1L Mark-IV Target Design Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koehler, Paul E.

This presentation includes General Design Considerations; Current (Mark-III) Lower Tier; Mark-III Upper Tier; Performance Metrics; General Improvements for Material Science; General Improvements for Nuclear Science; Improving FOM for Nuclear Science; General Design Considerations Summary; Design Optimization Studies; Expected Mark-IV Performance: Material Science; Expected Mark-IV Performance: Nuclear Science (Disk); Mark IV Enables Much Wider Range of Nuclear-Science FOM Gains than Mark III; Mark-IV Performance Summary; Rod or Disk? Center or Real FOV?; and Project Cost and Schedule.

Durability of Poly(Methyl Methacrylate) Lenses Used in Concentrating Photovoltaic Technology (Revised) (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, D. C.; Carloni, J. D.; Pankow, J. W.

2012-01-01

Concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) technology recently gained interest based on its expected low levelized cost of electricity, high efficiency, and scalability. Many CPV systems employ Fresnel lenses composed of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) to obtain a high optical flux density on the cell. The optical and mechanical durability of these lenses, however, is not well established relative to the desired surface life of 30 years. Our research aims to quantify the expected lifetime of PMMA in key market locations (FL, AZ, and CO).

Rational Design of Molecular Ferroelectric Materials and Nanostructures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ducharme, Stephen

2012-09-25

The purpose of this project was to gain insight into the properties of molecular ferroelectrics through the detailed study of oligomer analogs of polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF). By focusing on interactions at both the molecular level and the nanoscale level, we expect to gain improved understanding about the fundamental mechanism of ferroelectricity and its key properties. The research consisted of three complementary components: 1) Rational synthesis of VDF oligomers by Prof. Takacs' group; 2) Detailed structural and electrical studies of thin by Prof. Ducharme's Group; and 3) First-principles computational studies by DOE Lab Partner Dr. Serge Nakhman-son at Argonne National Laboratory.more » The main results of the work was a detailed understanding of the relationships between the molecular interactions and macroscopic phenomenology of fer-roelectricity VDF oligomers. This is valuable information supporting the development of im-proved electromechanical materials for, e.g., sonar, ultrasonic imaging, artificial muscles, and compliant actuators. Other potential applications include nonvolatile ferroelectric memories, heat-sensing imaging arrays, photovoltaic devices, and functional biomimetic materials. The pro-ject contributed to the training and professional development of undergraduate students and graduate students, post-doctoral assistants, and a high-school teacher. Project personnel took part in several outreach and education activities each year.« less

Genomic Tools in Groundnut Breeding Program: Status and Perspectives

PubMed Central

Janila, P.; Variath, Murali T.; Pandey, Manish K.; Desmae, Haile; Motagi, Babu N.; Okori, Patrick; Manohar, Surendra S.; Rathnakumar, A. L.; Radhakrishnan, T.; Liao, Boshou; Varshney, Rajeev K.

2016-01-01

Groundnut, a nutrient-rich food legume, is cultivated world over. It is valued for its good quality cooking oil, energy and protein rich food, and nutrient-rich fodder. Globally, groundnut improvement programs have developed varieties to meet the preferences of farmers, traders, processors, and consumers. Enhanced yield, tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses and quality parameters have been the target traits. Spurt in genetic information of groundnut was facilitated by development of molecular markers, genetic, and physical maps, generation of expressed sequence tags (EST), discovery of genes, and identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) for some important biotic and abiotic stresses and quality traits. The first groundnut variety developed using marker assisted breeding (MAB) was registered in 2003. Since then, USA, China, Japan, and India have begun to use genomic tools in routine groundnut improvement programs. Introgression lines that combine foliar fungal disease resistance and early maturity were developed using MAB. Establishment of marker-trait associations (MTA) paved way to integrate genomic tools in groundnut breeding for accelerated genetic gain. Genomic Selection (GS) tools are employed to improve drought tolerance and pod yield, governed by several minor effect QTLs. Draft genome sequence and low cost genotyping tools such as genotyping by sequencing (GBS) are expected to accelerate use of genomic tools to enhance genetic gains for target traits in groundnut. PMID:27014312

Tunable thin film filters for intelligent WDM networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Michael; Bartolini, Glenn; Lourie, Mark; Domash, Lawrence

2006-08-01

Optical transmission systems have evolved rapidly in recent years with the emergence of new technologies for gain management, wavelength multiplexing, tunability, and switching. WDM networks are increasingly expected to be agile, flexible, and reconfigurable which in turn has led to a need for monitoring to be more widely distributed within the network. Automation of many actions performed on these networks, such as channel provisioning and power balancing, can only be realized by the addition of optical channel monitors (OCMs). These devices provide information about the optical transmission system including the number of optical channels, channel identification, wavelength, power, and in some cases optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR). Until recently OCMs were costly and bulky and thus the number of OCMs used in optical networks was often kept to a minimum. We describe a family of tunable thin film filters which have greatly reduced the cost and physical footprint of channel monitors, making possible 'monitoring everywhere' for intelligent optical networks which can serve long haul, metro and access requirements from a single technology platform. As examples of specific applications we discuss network issues such as auto provisioning, wavelength collision avoidance, power balancing, OSNR balancing, gain equalization, alien wavelength recognition, interoperability, and other requirements assigned to the emerging concept of an Optical Control Plane.

Experimental Study of the Angle of Repose of Surrogate Martian Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moeller, L. E.; Tuller, M.; Baker, L.; Marshall, J.; Castiglione, P.; Kuhlman, K.

2003-01-01

Accumulation of wind-blown dust particles on solar cells and instruments will be a great challenge in the exploration of Mars, significantly reducing their lifetime, durability, and power output. For future Mars Lander missions it is crucial to gain information about the ideal angle at which solar panels can be positioned to minimize dust deposition and thus, maximize the power output and lifetime of the solar cells. The major determinant for the optimal panel angle is the angle of repose of the dust particles that is dependent on a variety of physical and chemical properties of the particles, the panel surface, and the environmental conditions on the Mars surface. To gain a basic understanding of the physical and chemical processes that govern dust deposition and to get feedback for the design of an experiment suitable for one of the future Mars Lander missions we simulate atmospheric conditions expected on the Mars surface in a controlled chamber, and observe the angle of repose of Mars dust surrogates. Dust deposition and angle of repose were observed on different sized spheres. To cover a range of potential materials we will use spheres made of 7075 aluminum (10 mm, and 15 mm), alumina oxide ceramic (10 mm), and Teflon(trademark) (10 mm) and wafers of gallium arsenide, silicon.

Can expectations produce symptoms from infrasound associated with wind turbines?

PubMed

Crichton, Fiona; Dodd, George; Schmid, Gian; Gamble, Greg; Petrie, Keith J

2014-04-01

The development of new wind farms in many parts of the world has been thwarted by public concern that subaudible sound (infrasound) generated by wind turbines causes adverse health effects. Although the scientific evidence does not support a direct pathophysiological link between infrasound and health complaints, there is a body of lay information suggesting a link between infrasound exposure and health effects. This study tested the potential for such information to create symptom expectations, thereby providing a possible pathway for symptom reporting. A sham-controlled double-blind provocation study, in which participants were exposed to 10 min of infrasound and 10 min of sham infrasound, was conducted. Fifty-four participants were randomized to high- or low-expectancy groups and presented audiovisual information, integrating material from the Internet, designed to invoke either high or low expectations that exposure to infrasound causes specified symptoms. High-expectancy participants reported significant increases, from preexposure assessment, in the number and intensity of symptoms experienced during exposure to both infrasound and sham infrasound. There were no symptomatic changes in the low-expectancy group. Healthy volunteers, when given information about the expected physiological effect of infrasound, reported symptoms that aligned with that information, during exposure to both infrasound and sham infrasound. Symptom expectations were created by viewing information readily available on the Internet, indicating the potential for symptom expectations to be created outside of the laboratory, in real world settings. Results suggest psychological expectations could explain the link between wind turbine exposure and health complaints.

Ketamine use among regular tobacco and alcohol users as revealed by respondent driven sampling in Taipei: prevalence, expectancy, and users’ risky decision making

PubMed Central

Chen, Wei J.; Ting, Te-Tien; Chang, Chao-Ming; Liu, Ying-Chun; Chen, Chuan-Yu

2014-01-01

The popularity of ketamine for recreational use among young people began to increase, particularly in Asia, in 2000. To gain more knowledge about the use of ketamine among high risk individuals, a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) was implemented among regular alcohol and tobacco users in the Taipei metropolitan area from 2007 to 2010. The sampling was initiated in three different settings (i.e., two in the community and one in a clinic) to recruit seed individuals. Each participant was asked to refer one to five friends known to be regular tobacco smokers and alcohol drinkers to participate in the present study. Incentives were offered differentially upon the completion of an interview and successful referral. Information pertaining to drug use experience was collected by an audio computer-assisted self-interview instrument. Software built for RDS analyses was used for data analyses. Of the 1,115 subjects recruited, about 11.7% of the RDS respondents reported ever having used ketamine. Positive expectancy of ketamine use was positively associated with ketamine use; in contrast, negative expectancy inversely associated with ketamine use. Decision-making characteristics as measured on the Iowa Gambling Task using reinforcement learning models revealed that ketamine users learned less from the most recent event than both tobacco- and drug-naïve controls and regular tobacco and alcohol users. These findings about ketamine use among young people have implications for its prevention and intervention. PMID:25264412

Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloem, Michael; Hattaway, David; Bambos, Nicholas

2012-01-01

Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

Knowledge, expectations, and inductive reasoning within conceptual hierarchies.

PubMed

Coley, John D; Hayes, Brett; Lawson, Christopher; Moloney, Michelle

2004-01-01

Previous research (e.g. Cognition 64 (1997) 73) suggests that the privileged level for inductive inference in a folk biological conceptual hierarchy does not correspond to the "basic" level (i.e. the level at which concepts are both informative and distinct). To further explore inductive inference within conceptual hierarchies, we examine relations between knowledge of concepts at different hierarchical levels, expectations about conceptual coherence, and inductive inference. In Experiments 1 and 2, 5- and 8-year-olds and adults listed features of living kind (Experiments 1 and 2) and artifact (Experiment 2) concepts at different hierarchical levels (e.g. plant, tree, oak, desert oak), and also rated the strength of generalizations to the same concepts. For living kinds, the level that showed a relative advantage on these two tasks differed; the greatest increase in features listed tended to occur at the life-form level (e.g. tree), whereas the greatest increase in inductive strength tended to occur at the folk-generic level (e.g. oak). Knowledge and induction also showed different developmental trajectories. For artifact concepts, the levels at which the greatest gains in knowledge and induction occurred were more varied, and corresponded more closely across tasks. In Experiment 3, adults reported beliefs about within-category similarity for concepts at different levels of animal, plant and artifact hierarchies, and rated inductive strength as before. For living kind concepts, expectations about category coherence predicted patterns of inductions; knowledge did not. For artifact concepts, both knowledge and expectations predicted patterns of induction. Results suggest that beliefs about conceptual coherence play an important role in guiding inductive inference, that this role may be largely independent of specific knowledge of concepts, and that such beliefs are especially important in reasoning about living kinds.

Smoking abstinence-related expectancies among American Indians, African Americans, and women: potential mechanisms of tobacco-related disparities.

PubMed

Hendricks, Peter S; Westmaas, J Lee; Ta Park, Van M; Thorne, Christopher B; Wood, Sabrina B; Baker, Majel R; Lawler, R Marsh; Webb Hooper, Monica; Delucchi, Kevin L; Hall, Sharon M

2014-03-01

Research has documented tobacco-related health disparities by race and gender. Prior research, however, has not examined expectancies about the smoking cessation process (i.e., abstinence-related expectancies) as potential contributors to tobacco-related disparities in special populations. This cross-sectional study compared abstinence-related expectancies between American Indian (n = 87), African American (n = 151), and White (n = 185) smokers, and between women (n = 231) and men (n = 270) smokers. Abstinence-related expectancies also were examined as mediators of race and gender relationships with motivation to quit and abstinence self efficacy. Results indicated that American Indians and African Americans were less likely than Whites to expect withdrawal effects, and more likely to expect that quitting would be unproblematic. African Americans also were less likely than Whites to expect smoking cessation interventions to be effective. Compared with men, women were more likely to expect withdrawal effects and weight gain. These expectancy differences mediated race and gender relationships with motivation to quit and abstinence self-efficacy. Findings emphasize potential mechanisms underlying tobacco-related health disparities among American Indians, African Americans, and women and suggest a number of specific approaches for targeting tobacco dependence interventions to these populations.

Smoking Abstinence-related Expectancies among American Indians, African Americans, and Women: Potential Mechanisms of Tobacco-related Disparities

PubMed Central

Hendricks, Peter S.; Westmaas, J. Lee; Park, Van M. Ta; Thorne, Christopher B.; Wood, Sabrina B.; Baker, Majel R.; Lawler, R. Marsh; Hooper, Monica Webb; Delucchi, Kevin L.; Hall, Sharon M.

2014-01-01

Research has documented tobacco-related health disparities by race and gender. Prior research, however, has not examined expectancies about the smoking cessation process (i.e., abstinence-related expectancies) as potential contributors to tobacco-related disparities in special populations. This cross-sectional study compared abstinence-related expectancies between American Indian (n = 87), African American (n = 151), and White (n = 185) smokers, and between women (n = 231) and men (n = 270) smokers. Abstinence-related expectancies also were examined as mediators of race and gender relationships with motivation to quit and abstinence self-efficacy. Results indicated that American Indians and African Americans were less likely than Whites to expect withdrawal effects, and more likely to expect that quitting would be unproblematic. African Americans also were less likely than Whites to expect smoking cessation interventions to be effective. Compared to men, women were more likely to expect withdrawal effects and weight gain.These expectancy differences mediated race and gender relationships with motivation to quit and abstinence self-efficacy. Findings emphasize potential mechanisms underlying tobacco-related health disparities among American Indians, African Americans, and women, and suggest a number of specific approaches for targeting tobacco dependence interventions to these populations. PMID:23528192

Effect of Parent Training on Adaptive Behavior in Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder and Disruptive Behavior: Results of a Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Scahill, Lawrence; Bearss, Karen; Lecavalier, Luc; Smith, Tristram; Swiezy, Naomi; Aman, Michael G; Sukhodolsky, Denis G; McCracken, Courtney; Minshawi, Noha; Turner, Kylan; Levato, Lynne; Saulnier, Celine; Dziura, James; Johnson, Cynthia

2016-07-01

This study examined the impact of parent training on adaptive behavior in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and disruptive behavior. This was a 24-week, 6-site, randomized trial of parent training versus parent education in 180 children with ASD (aged 3-7 years; 158 boys and 22 girls) and moderate or greater behavioral problems. Parent training included specific strategies to manage disruptive behavior over 11 to 13 sessions, 2 telephone boosters, and 2 home visits. Parent education provided useful information about autism but no behavior management strategies over 12 core sessions and 1 home visit. In a previous report, we showed that parent training was superior to parent education in reducing disruptive behavior in young children with ASD. Here, we test whether parent training is superior to parent education in improving daily living skills as measured by the parent-rated Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales II. The long-term impact of parent training on adaptive functioning is also presented. At week 24, the parent training group showed a 5.7-point improvement from baseline on the Daily Living domain compared to no change in parent education (p = .004; effect size = 0.36). On the Socialization domain, there was a 5.9-point improvement in parent training versus a 3.1-point improvement in parent education (p = .11; effect size = 0.29). Gains in the Communication domain were similar across treatment groups. The gain in Daily Living was greater in children with IQ of >70. However, the interaction of treatment-by-IQ was not significant. Gains in Daily Living at week 24 were maintained upon re-evaluation at 24 weeks posttreatment. These results support the model that reduction in disruptive behavior can lead to improvement in activities of daily living. By contrast, the expected trajectory for adaptive behavior in children with ASD is often flat and predictably declines in children with intellectual disability. In the parent training group, higher-functioning children achieved significant gains in daily living skills. Children with intellectual disability kept pace with time. Clinical trial registration information-Randomized Trial of Parent Training for Young Children With Autism (RUBI); http://clinicaltrials.gov/; NCT01233414. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative effectiveness of adding weight control simultaneously or sequentially to smoking cessation quitlines: study protocol of a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Bush, Terry; Lovejoy, Jennifer; Javitz, Harold; Magnusson, Brooke; Torres, Alula Jimenez; Mahuna, Stacey; Benedict, Cody; Wassum, Ken; Spring, Bonnie

2016-07-22

Prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors is growing, and obesity and smoking are costly. Weight gain associated with quitting smoking is common and can interfere with quit success. Efficacy of adding weight management to tobacco cessation treatment has been tested with women in group sessions over an extended period of time, but has never been tested in real-world settings with men and women seeking help to quit. This paper describes the Best Quit study which tests the effectiveness of delivering tobacco and weight control interventions via existing quitline infrastructures. Eligible and consenting smokers (n = 2550) who call a telephone quitline will be randomized to one of three groups; the standard quitline or standard quitline plus a weight management program added either simultaneously or sequentially to the tobacco program. The study aims to test: 1) the effectiveness of the combined intervention on smoking cessation and weight, 2) the cost-effectiveness of the combined intervention on cessation and weight and 3) theoretically pre-specified mediators of treatment effects on cessation: reduced weight concerns, increased outcome expectancies about quitting and improved self-efficacy about quitting without weight gain. Baseline, 6 month and 12 month data will be analyzed using multivariate statistical analyses and groups will be compared on treatment adherence, quit rates and change in weight among abstinent participants. To determine if the association between group assignment and primary outcomes (30-day abstinence and change in weight at 6 months) is moderated by pre-determined baseline and process measures, interaction terms will be included in the regression models and their significance assessed. This study will generate information to inform whether adding weight management to a tobacco cessation intervention delivered by phone, mail and web for smokers seeking help to quit will help or harm quit rates and whether a simultaneous or sequential approach is better at increasing abstinence and reducing weight gain post quit. If proven effective, the combined intervention could be disseminated across the U.S. through quitlines and could encourage additional smokers who have not sought cessation treatment for fear of gaining weight to make quit attempts. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01867983 . Registered: May 30, 2013.

Six key topics informal carers of patients with breathlessness in advanced disease want to learn about and why: MRC phase I study to inform an educational intervention.

PubMed

Farquhar, Morag; Penfold, Clarissa; Benson, John; Lovick, Roberta; Mahadeva, Ravi; Howson, Sophie; Burkin, Julie; Booth, Sara; Gilligan, David; Todd, Christopher; Ewing, Gail

2017-01-01

Breathlessness is a common symptom of advanced disease placing a huge burden on patients, health systems and informal carers (families and friends providing daily help and support). It causes distress and isolation. Carers provide complex personal, practical and emotional support yet often feel ill-prepared to care. They lack knowledge and confidence in their caring role. The need to educate carers and families about breathlessness is established, yet we lack robustly developed carer-targeted educational interventions to meet their needs. We conducted a qualitative interview study with twenty five purposively-sampled patient-carer dyads living with breathlessness in advanced disease (half living with advanced cancer and half with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We sought to identify carers' educational needs (including what they wanted to learn about) and explore differences by diagnostic group in order to inform an educational intervention for carers of patients with breathlessness in advanced disease. There was a strong desire among carers for an educational intervention on breathlessness. Six key topics emerged as salient for them: 1) understanding breathlessness, 2) managing anxiety, panic and breathlessness, 3) managing infections, 4) keeping active, 5) living positively and 6) knowing what to expect in the future. A cross-cutting theme was relationship management: there were tensions within dyads resulting from mismatched expectations related to most topics. Carers felt that knowledge-gains would not only help them to support the patient better, but also help them to manage their own frustrations, anxieties, and quality of life. Different drivers for education need were identified by diagnostic group, possibly related to differences in caring role duration and resulting impacts. Meeting the educational needs of carers requires robustly developed and evaluated interventions. This study provides the evidence-base for the content of an educational intervention for carers of patients with breathlessness in advanced disease.

Value of information in natural resource management: technical developments and application to pink-footed geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2015-01-01

The “value of information” (VOI) is a generic term for the increase in value resulting from better information to guide management, or alternatively, the value foregone under uncertainty about the impacts of management (Yokota and Thompson, Medical Decision Making 2004;24: 287). The value of information can be characterized in terms of several metrics, including the expected value of perfect information and the expected value of partial information. We extend the technical framework for the value of information by further developing the relationship between value metrics for partial and perfect information and describing patterns of their performance. We use two different expressions for the expected value of partial information to highlight its relationship to the expected value of perfect information. We also develop the expected value of partial information for hierarchical uncertainties. We highlight patterns in the value of information for the Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus), a population that is subject to uncertainty in both reproduction and survival functions. The framework for valuing information is seen as having widespread potential in resource decision making, and serves as a motivation for resource monitoring, assessment, and collaboration.

Deleterious effects of increased body weight associated with intensive insulin therapy for type 1 diabetes: increased blood pressure and worsened lipid profile partially negate improvements in life expectancy.

PubMed

Palmer, Andrew J; Roze, Stéphane; Valentine, William J; Minshall, Michael E; Lammert, Morten; Nicklasson, Lars; Spinas, Giatgen A

2004-08-01

Weight gain is an unwanted side effect of improved glycaemic control in type 1 diabetes, associated with increased blood pressure (BP) and worsening lipid profiles. While improved glycaemic control per se should improve long-term patient outcomes, increases in BP and worsening lipid profiles may counteract these benefits. The aim of this modelling study was to assess whether the increased body weight and associated worsening of lipid profile and blood pressure would negate the improvements in glycaemic control seen with intensive therapy in patients with type 1 diabetes. A validated diabetes model projected life expectancy (LE), quality-adjusted LE (QALE) and total lifetime costs of complications in type 1 diabetes cohorts with the characteristics of patients from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT). The following four cohorts (A-D) were created based on increased body weight under either conventional or intensive therapy: A) conventional glycaemic control in the subgroup with lowest weight-gain quartile after 6.5 years (HbA1c increased by 11% from baseline); B) conventional control in the highest weight-gain quartile (no change in HbA1c from baseline); C) intensive control in the lowest quartile of weight gain (with 16.1% decrease in HbA1c, but no increase in weight or associated BP, and improved lipid profile); D) intensive control in the highest quartile of weight gain (with 21% decrease in HbA1c, increased systolic BP of 6 mmHg, and worsened lipid profile). Data were derived from DCCT and other published sources. Intensive control, even with weight gain, led to major improvements in LE and QALE, and reduction in costs of complications versus conventional therapy. Intensive therapy with no weight increase led to a higher LE (increased by 0.57 years) and higher QALE (increased by 0.28 years) and lower costs of complications (reduced by 523 dollars/patient), compared to intensive therapy with the highest quartile of weight gain. Concerns about weight gain should not deter intensive insulin therapy. However, the value of improving glycaemic control without increasing body weight (and associated increased BP and worsening of lipid profile) has been confirmed.

A High-Granularity Timing Detector for the Phase-II upgrade of the ATLAS calorimeter system: detector concept description and first beam test results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacour, D.

2018-02-01

The expected increase of the particle flux at the high luminosity phase of the LHC (HL-LHC) with instantaneous luminosities up to 7.5ṡ1034 cm-2s-1 will have a severe impact on the ATLAS detector performance. The pile-up is expected to increase on average to 200 interactions per bunch crossing. The reconstruction performance for electrons, photons as well as jets and transverse missing energy will be severely degraded in the end-cap and forward region. A High Granularity Timing Detector (HGTD) is proposed in front of the liquid Argon end-cap and forward calorimeters for pile-up mitigation. This device should cover the pseudo-rapidity range of 2.4 to about 4.0. Low Gain Avalanche Detectors (LGAD) technology has been chosen as it provides an internal gain good enough to reach large signal over noise ratio needed for excellent time resolution. The requirements and overall specifications of the High Granular Timing Detector at the HL-LHC will be presented as well as the conceptual design of its mechanics and electronics. Beam test results and measurements of irradiated LGAD silicon sensors, such as gain and timing resolution, will be shown.

Gain- and Loss-Related Brain Activation Are Associated with Information Search Differences in Risky Gambles: An fMRI and Eye-Tracking Study.

PubMed

Häusler, Alexander Niklas; Oroz Artigas, Sergio; Trautner, Peter; Weber, Bernd

2016-01-01

People differ in the way they approach and handle choices with unsure outcomes. In this study, we demonstrate that individual differences in the neural processing of gains and losses relates to attentional differences in the way individuals search for information in gambles. Fifty subjects participated in two independent experiments. Participants first completed an fMRI experiment involving financial gains and losses. Subsequently, they performed an eye-tracking experiment on binary choices between risky gambles, each displaying monetary outcomes and their respective probabilities. We find that individual differences in gain and loss processing relate to attention distribution. Individuals with a stronger reaction to gains in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex paid more attention to monetary amounts, while a stronger reaction in the ventral striatum to losses was correlated with an increased attention to probabilities. Reaction in the posterior cingulate cortex to losses was also found to correlate with an increased attention to probabilities. Our data show that individual differences in brain activity and differences in information search processes are closely linked.

Gain- and Loss-Related Brain Activation Are Associated with Information Search Differences in Risky Gambles: An fMRI and Eye-Tracking Study

PubMed Central

Trautner, Peter

2016-01-01

Abstract People differ in the way they approach and handle choices with unsure outcomes. In this study, we demonstrate that individual differences in the neural processing of gains and losses relates to attentional differences in the way individuals search for information in gambles. Fifty subjects participated in two independent experiments. Participants first completed an fMRI experiment involving financial gains and losses. Subsequently, they performed an eye-tracking experiment on binary choices between risky gambles, each displaying monetary outcomes and their respective probabilities. We find that individual differences in gain and loss processing relate to attention distribution. Individuals with a stronger reaction to gains in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex paid more attention to monetary amounts, while a stronger reaction in the ventral striatum to losses was correlated with an increased attention to probabilities. Reaction in the posterior cingulate cortex to losses was also found to correlate with an increased attention to probabilities. Our data show that individual differences in brain activity and differences in information search processes are closely linked. PMID:27679814

Regional elevator survey : grain transportation & industry trends for Great Plains elevators

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

One potential means for gaining insight into the current state of the elevator industry, : and into expectations for future trends, is through a survey. The objective of this study is to profile the transportation and industry characteristics of the ...

Watermelon, cantaloupe, and honeydew

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tropical and sub-tropical fruits have gained significant importance in global commerce. During the period 2000–2004, global production of tropical and subtropical fruits increased by 19.2%, this trend is expected to continue as per FAO projections. Some of the major challenges confronting tropical a...

Information gains from cosmic microwave background experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seehars, Sebastian; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre; Paranjape, Aseem; Akeret, Joël

2014-07-01

To shed light on the fundamental problems posed by dark energy and dark matter, a large number of experiments have been performed and combined to constrain cosmological models. We propose a novel way of quantifying the information gained by updates on the parameter constraints from a series of experiments which can either complement earlier measurements or replace them. For this purpose, we use the Kullback-Leibler divergence or relative entropy from information theory to measure differences in the posterior distributions in model parameter space from a pair of experiments. We apply this formalism to a historical series of cosmic microwave background experiments ranging from Boomerang to WMAP, SPT, and Planck. Considering different combinations of these experiments, we thus estimate the information gain in units of bits and distinguish contributions from the reduction of statistical errors and the "surprise" corresponding to a significant shift of the parameters' central values. For this experiment series, we find individual relative entropy gains ranging from about 1 to 30 bits. In some cases, e.g. when comparing WMAP and Planck results, we find that the gains are dominated by the surprise rather than by improvements in statistical precision. We discuss how this technique provides a useful tool for both quantifying the constraining power of data from cosmological probes and detecting the tensions between experiments.

Reflecting the real value of health care resources in modelling and cost-effectiveness studies—The example of viral load informed differentiated care

PubMed Central

Walker, Simon; Cambiano, Valentina; Phillips, Andrew; Sculpher, Mark J.

2018-01-01

Background The WHO HIV Treatment Guidelines suggest routine viral-load monitoring can be used to differentiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery and reduce the frequency of clinic visits for patients stable on ART. This recommendation was informed by economic analysis that showed the approach is very likely to be cost-effective, even in the most resource constrained of settings. The health benefits were shown to be modest but the costs of introducing and scaling up viral load monitoring can be offset by anticipated reductions in the costs of clinic visits, due to these being less frequent for many patients. Key issues for economic evaluation The cost-effectiveness of introducing viral-load informed differentiated care depends upon whether cost reductions are possible if the number of clinic visits is reduced and/or how freed clinic capacity is used for alternative priorities. Where freed resources, either physical or financial, generate large health gains (e.g. if committed to patients failing ART or to other high value health care interventions), the benefits of differentiated care are expected to be high; if however these freed physical resources are already under-utilized or financial resources are used less efficiently and would not be put to as beneficial an alternative use, the policy may not be cost-effective. The implication is that the use of conventional unit costs to value resources may not well reflect the latter’s value in contributing to health improvement. Analyses intended to inform resource allocated decisions in a number of settings may therefore have to be interpreted with due consideration to local context. In this paper we present methods of how economic analyses can reflect the real value of health care resources rather than simply applying their unit costs. The analyses informing the WHO Guidelines are re-estimated by implementing scenarios using this framework, informing how differentiated care can be prioritized to generate greatest gains in population health. Implications The findings have important implications for how economic analyses should be undertaken and reported in HIV and other disease areas. Results provide guidance on conditions under which viral load informed differentiated care will more likely prove to be cost effective when implemented. PMID:29293611

Dark Flow, Depression and Multiline Slot Machine Play.

PubMed

Dixon, Mike J; Stange, Madison; Larche, Chanel J; Graydon, Candice; Fugelsang, Jonathan A; Harrigan, Kevin A

2018-03-01

Multiline slot machines allow for a unique outcome type referred to as a loss disguised as a win (LDW). An LDW occurs when a player gains credits on a spin, but fewer credits than their original wager (e.g. 15-cent gain on a 20-cent wager). These outcomes alter the gambler's play experience by providing frequent, albeit smaller, credit gains throughout a playing session that are in fact net losses. Despite this negative overall value, research has shown that players physiologically respond to LDWs as if they are wins, not losses. These outcomes also create a "smoother" experience for the player that seems to promote a highly absorbing, flow-like state that we have called "dark flow". Past research has indicated that there may be a relationship between problem gambling status and dark flow, as well as between dark flow, depression, and gambling expectancies. In this study, we sought to further understand these relationships, while examining the influence of LDWs on game preference in the context of single versus multiline slots play. We used a realistic slot machine simulator equipped with a force transducer to measure how hard players pressed the spin button following different outcomes. This measure of arousal showed that LDWs were treated similarly to small wins. Participants overwhelmingly preferred the multiline game and experienced more positive affect while playing it, compared to the single-line game. Problem gambling severity index scores were related to dark flow in both games, but this relationship was stronger for the multiline game. Additionally, depression symptomatology and dark flow were strongly correlated in the multiline game, with significant relationships between depression and gambling expectancy, and gambling expectancy and dark flow ratings also emerging.

Evaluation of balloon trajectory forecast routines for GAINS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collander, R.; Girz, C.

The Global Air-ocean IN-situ System (GAINS) is a global observing system designed to augment current environmental observing and monitoring networks. GAINS is a network of long-duration, stratospheric platforms that carry onboard sensors and hundreds of dropsondes to acquire meteorological, air chemistry, and climate data over oceans and in remote land regions of the globe. Although GAINS platforms will include balloons and Remotely Operated Aircraft (ROA), the scope of this paper is limited to balloon-based platforms. A primary goal of GAINS balloon test flights is post-flight recovery of the balloon shell and payload, which requires information on the expected flight path and landing site prior to launch. Software has been developed for the prediction of the balloon trajectory and landing site, with separate versions written to generate predictions based upon rawinsonde data and model output. Balloon positions are calculated in 1-min increments based on wind data from the closest rawinsonde site or model grid point, given a known launch point, ascent and descent rate and flight duration. For short flights (< 6h), rawinsonde winds interpolated to 10-mb levels are used for trajectory calculations. Predictions for flight durations of 6 to 48h are based upon the initialization and 3 h forecast wind fields from NOAA's global aviation- (AVN) and Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. Given a limited number of actual balloon launches, trajectories computed from a chronological series of hourly RUC initializations are used as the baseline for comparison purposes. These baseline trajectories are compared to trajectory predictions from the rawinsonde and model-based versions on a monthly and seasonal basis over a 1-year period (January 1 - December 31, 2001) for flight durations of 3h, 6h and 48h. Predicted trajectories diverge from the baseline path, with the divergence increasing with increasing time. We examine the zonal, meridional and net magnitudes of these deviations, and attempt to determine directional biases in the predictions. This paper gives an overview of the software, including methods employed, physical considerations and limitations, and discusses results of this evaluation.

The persuasive effects of framing messages on fruit and vegetable consumption according to regulatory focus theory.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Arie; Rothman, Alexander; Pietersma, Suzanne

2011-08-01

According to Regulatory Focus theory (RFT), outcomes in persuasive messages can be framed in four different ways, as gains, non-gains, losses or non-losses. In study 1, the persuasiveness of all four frames was compared and the presence/absence effect that was expected on the basis of the feature-positive effect was verified: Statements about present outcomes (gain, loss) were more persuasive than those about absent outcomes (non-gain, non-loss). However, this study failed to support the prediction that a gain-framed message would be more persuasive than a loss-framed message when promoting a prevention behaviour. Study 2 was designed to examine the latter finding. It was hypothesised that the threat posed by the loss-framed message in study 1 was too low to elicit a defensive reaction. Therefore, in study 2, the personal relevance of the gain and the loss framed message was manipulated. Consistent with predictions, the gain-framed message was more persuasive than the loss-framed message, but only when the message was personalised to increase self-relevance. Moreover, the effect was due to a significant drop in persuasion in the loss condition, probably caused by a defensive reaction. These data shed a new light on the findings of past framing studies.

Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

2017-01-01

Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1 to 10 points with the goal…

20 CFR 220.142 - General information about work activity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... business, this tends to show that the claimant has the ability to work at the substantial gainful activity... claimant has the necessary skills and ability to work at the substantial gainful activity level. (d) If the... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false General information about work activity. 220...

20 CFR 416.973 - General information about work activity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... operation of a business, this tends to show that you have the ability to work at the substantial gainful... ability to work at the substantial gainful activity level. Examples of the special conditions that may... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false General information about work activity. 416...

20 CFR 220.142 - General information about work activity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... business, this tends to show that the claimant has the ability to work at the substantial gainful activity... claimant has the necessary skills and ability to work at the substantial gainful activity level. (d) If the... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true General information about work activity. 220...

20 CFR 220.142 - General information about work activity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... business, this tends to show that the claimant has the ability to work at the substantial gainful activity... claimant has the necessary skills and ability to work at the substantial gainful activity level. (d) If the... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2014-04-01 2012-04-01 true General information about work activity. 220...

20 CFR 416.973 - General information about work activity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... operation of a business, this tends to show that you have the ability to work at the substantial gainful... ability to work at the substantial gainful activity level. Examples of the special conditions that may... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false General information about work activity. 416...

20 CFR 416.973 - General information about work activity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... operation of a business, this tends to show that you have the ability to work at the substantial gainful... ability to work at the substantial gainful activity level. Examples of the special conditions that may... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false General information about work activity. 416...

Informant Agreement in Treatment Gains for Child Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benjamin, Courtney L.; Puleo, Connor M.; Kendall, Philip C.

2011-01-01

The present study examined multiple informant agreement in reports of treatment gains in a sample of children (M age = 10.27) treated for social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, and separation anxiety disorder. Mothers and fathers agreed on their child's improvement, and parents and children also generally agreed on the child's improvement.…

Cost effectiveness analysis of HLA-B*58:01 genotyping prior to initiation of allopurinol for gout.

PubMed

Plumpton, Catrin O; Alfirevic, Ana; Pirmohamed, Munir; Hughes, Dyfrig A

2017-10-01

To determine whether prospective testing for HLA-B*58:01, as a strategy to prevent serious adverse reactions to allopurinol in patients with gout, is cost-effective from the perspective of the National Health Service in the UK. A systematic review and meta-analysis for the association of HLA-B*58:01 with cutaneous and hypersensitivity adverse drug reactions informed a decision analytic and Markov model to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes associated with testing vs standard care (with febuxostat prescribed for patients who test positive). Scenario analyses assessed alternative treatment assumptions and patient populations. The number of patients needed to test to prevent one case of adverse drug reaction was 11 286 (95% central range (CR): 2573, 53 594). Cost and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gains were small, £103 (95% CR: £98, £106) and 0.0023 (95% CR: -0.0006, 0.0055), respectively, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £44 954 per QALY gained. The probability of testing being cost-effective at a threshold of £30 000 per QALY was 0.25. Reduced costs of testing or febuxostat resulted in an ICER below £30 000 per QALY gained. The ICER for patients with chronic renal insufficiency was £38 478 per QALY gained. Routine testing for HLA-B*58:01 in order to reduce the incidence of adverse drug reactions in patients being prescribed allopurinol for gout is unlikely to be cost-effective in the UK; however testing is expected to become cost-effective with reductions in the cost of genotyping, and with the future availability of cheaper, generic febuxostat. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation and diversity improvement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, R. K.

1982-01-01

A new model was developed to predict attenuation statistics for a single Earth-satellite or terrestrial propagation path. The model was extended to provide predictions of the joint occurrences of specified or higher attenuation values on two closely spaced Earth-satellite paths. The joint statistics provide the information required to obtain diversity gain or diversity advantage estimates. The new model is meteorologically based. It was tested against available Earth-satellite beacon observations and terrestrial path measurements. The model employs the rain climate region descriptions of the Global rain model. The rms deviation between the predicted and observed attenuation values for the terrestrial path data was 35 percent, a result consistent with the expectations of the Global model when the rain rate distribution for the path is not used in the calculation. Within the United States the rms deviation between measurement and prediction was 36 percent but worldwide it was 79 percent.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkerson, Andrea M.; McCullough, Jeffrey J.

The Yuma Sector Border Patrol Area is a high flux lighting application in a high temperature environment, presenting a formidable challenge for light-emitting diodes (LEDs). This retrofit is an Energy Savings Performance Contract ENABLE project under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program. If high flux LED technology performs well in a region with high ambient temperature and solar radiation, it can perform well in most outdoor environments. The design process for the Yuma retrofit has already provided valuable knowledge to CBP and DOE. The LED lighting system selected for the retrofit is expected to reduce energymore » consumption 69% compared to the incumbent quartz metal halide (QMH) lighting system. If the LED lighting system is installed, GATEWAY will continue to document and disseminate information regarding the installation and long-term performance so that others may also gain valuable knowledge from the Yuma Sector Border Patrol Area lighting retrofit.« less

Effects of light wavelength and coherence in structured light sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Kevin; Ramamurthy, Rajesh; Zhai, Zirong; Han, Jie; Yang, Dongmin

2016-05-01

Structured light methods are used by many commercial products on the market today. Many such systems using white light projectors while many line gages use standard red laser diodes. However, in recent years there has been much claimed about using blue light, polarized light and partially coherent systems to obtain better performance. Unlike interferometers, moving from red to blue light for a system using only geometric shape information does not gain an automatic advantage from the shorter wavelength. The sensitivity metric does not have a wavelength component to it. But there are other factors that can improve gage performance. The ability to measure some feature is also a function of other parameters such as signal to noise ratio, reflectivity variations, and depth-of-field over which a clear pattern can be seen. This paper will explore the theoretical and experimental data relating to what works and what can be expected from variations on the old methods.

Qatar.

PubMed

1992-04-01

Qatar is a country of 11,437 sq. km with 400,000 inhabitants, of whom 65% are literate. Independence was gained on September 3, 1971. The terrain consists of flat, barren desert, with a hot and dry climate. Arabic and English are spoken by Arab, South Asian, and Iranian ethnic groups who are largely of the Islamic faith. Life expectancy is 58 years. The gross domestic product is $5.2 billion, growing at a rate of 4%. Per capita income is $13,000. The country's natural resources include petroleum, natural gas, and fish. Oil production, refining, natural gas development, fishing, cement, power/desalinization plants, petrochemicals, steel, and fertilizers are areas of economic production. Industrial and consumer goods are imported and oil is exported. In-depth information is also given on the people and history, government and principal officials, political conditions, the economy, defense, foreign relations, relations with the US, and names of principal US officials in the country.

An exploration of China's mortality decline under Mao: A provincial analysis, 1950–80

PubMed Central

Babiarz, Kimberly Singer; Eggleston, Karen; Miller, Grant; Zhang, Qiong

2014-01-01

China's growth in life expectancy between 1950 and 1980 ranks as among the most rapid sustained increases in documented global history. However, no study of which we are aware has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of various explanations proposed for these gains. We create and analyse a new province-level panel data set spanning 1950-80 using historical information from Chinese public health archives, official provincial yearbooks, and infant and child mortality records contained in the 1988 National Survey of Fertility and Contraception. Although exploratory, our results suggest that increases in educational attainment and public health campaigns jointly explain 50-70 per cent of the dramatic reductions in infant and under-five mortality during our study period. These results are consistent with the importance of non-medical determinants of population health improvement – and under some circumstances, how general education may amplify the effectiveness of public health interventions. PMID:25495509

Why UFI nudges will get stuck in the policy process.

PubMed

Lawson, Joshua; Howard, Brendan

2012-01-01

User financial incentives (UFI), in the context of behavioural public policy, have the potential to shape Canadian health policy by replacing or augmenting traditional information-based mechanisms and by imparting a viewpoint that has traditionally been foreign to the public sphere. Whether or not UFI and more traditional "nudges" should be used, they will likely be limited by traditional moral, efficacy and cost/ benefit challenges, as well as the political and bureaucratic impediments that emerge throughout the policy implementation process. These challenges will likely preclude UFI and nudges from having a transformative effect on public policy, but this new school of thought will likely gain prominence through more amorphous means as more individuals learn and adopt its central theory. We should be excited about the potential of UFI and the use of behavioural public policy, but should temper our excitement with realistic expectations about how extensively such an approach should and will be used.

Modeling and analyzing non-seizure EEG data for patients with epilepsy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawkins, W.F.; Clapp, N.E. Jr.; Daw, C.S.

1996-05-01

We present nonlinear analysis of non-seizure electroencephalogram (EEG) time series data from four epileptic patients. A non-seizure state is a period that is free of any part of an epileptic seizure, including the transition to a fully developed episode. EEG measurements are typically contaminated with a large amount of non- neurophysiological source information, generally called artifact, which arises, for example, from eye movement, muscle tension, and physical motion. The first objective of this study is to gain some insight into how much variability in analysis results to be expected from patients having similar clinical characteristics. The second objective is tomore » investigate the impact of eye movement on the analysis results. A special feature presented here is the introduction and testing of a filter for eye movement artifact. The third objective is to determine if neurophysiological activity as viewed from two adjacent channels appears dynamically to be the same.« less

A new collection of real world applications of fractional calculus in science and engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, HongGuang; Zhang, Yong; Baleanu, Dumitru; Chen, Wen; Chen, YangQuan

2018-11-01

Fractional calculus is at this stage an arena where many models are still to be introduced, discussed and applied to real world applications in many branches of science and engineering where nonlocality plays a crucial role. Although researchers have already reported many excellent results in several seminal monographs and review articles, there are still a large number of non-local phenomena unexplored and waiting to be discovered. Therefore, year by year, we can discover new aspects of the fractional modeling and applications. This review article aims to present some short summaries written by distinguished researchers in the field of fractional calculus. We believe this incomplete, but important, information will guide young researchers and help newcomers to see some of the main real-world applications and gain an understanding of this powerful mathematical tool. We expect this collection will also benefit our community.

Growth of Mashona cattle on range in Zimbabwe. II. Estimates of genetic parameters and predicted response to selection.

PubMed

Tawonezvi, H P

1989-08-01

For 1,456 Mashona calves sired by 88 bulls heritability estimates from paternal half-sibs were 0.44 +/- 0.11 for birth weight, 0.38 +/- 0.10 for 205-day weaning weight, 0.39 +/- 0.10 for 18-month weight, 0.37 +/- 0.10 for pre-weaning daily liveweight gain and 0.41 +/- 0.11 for daily gain from weaning to 18 months of age. Genetic correlations were relatively low for birth weight with weaning weight (0.42 +/- 0.18), 18-month weight (0.56 +/- 0.16), pre-weaning gain (0.33 +/- 0.19) and post-weaning gain (0.36 +/- 0.19). Higher genetic correlations were observed for pre-weaning gain with weaning weight (0.98 +/- 0.01) and 18-month weight (0.59 +/- 0.14) and for 18-month weight with weaning weight (0.67 +/- 0.12) and post-weaning gain (0.73 +/- 0.10). Post-weaning daily gain was not significantly correlated genetically with both pre-weaning gain (-0.11 +/- 0.22) and weaning weight (-0.03 +/- 0.22). With 10% retention of males and 60% of females expected genetic improvements per generation from direct selection for weaning weight or 18-month weight were 8.11 kg and 12.12 kg respectively. These improvements would be reduced by 18% and 35% if selection indices were used to produce no correlated change in birth weight.

Subtractive, divisive and non-monotonic gain control in feedforward nets linearized by noise and delays.

PubMed

Mejias, Jorge F; Payeur, Alexandre; Selin, Erik; Maler, Leonard; Longtin, André

2014-01-01

The control of input-to-output mappings, or gain control, is one of the main strategies used by neural networks for the processing and gating of information. Using a spiking neural network model, we studied the gain control induced by a form of inhibitory feedforward circuitry-also known as "open-loop feedback"-, which has been experimentally observed in a cerebellum-like structure in weakly electric fish. We found, both analytically and numerically, that this network displays three different regimes of gain control: subtractive, divisive, and non-monotonic. Subtractive gain control was obtained when noise is very low in the network. Also, it was possible to change from divisive to non-monotonic gain control by simply modulating the strength of the feedforward inhibition, which may be achieved via long-term synaptic plasticity. The particular case of divisive gain control has been previously observed in vivo in weakly electric fish. These gain control regimes were robust to the presence of temporal delays in the inhibitory feedforward pathway, which were found to linearize the input-to-output mappings (or f-I curves) via a novel variability-increasing mechanism. Our findings highlight the feedforward-induced gain control analyzed here as a highly versatile mechanism of information gating in the brain.

Subtractive, divisive and non-monotonic gain control in feedforward nets linearized by noise and delays

PubMed Central

Mejias, Jorge F.; Payeur, Alexandre; Selin, Erik; Maler, Leonard; Longtin, André

2014-01-01

The control of input-to-output mappings, or gain control, is one of the main strategies used by neural networks for the processing and gating of information. Using a spiking neural network model, we studied the gain control induced by a form of inhibitory feedforward circuitry—also known as “open-loop feedback”—, which has been experimentally observed in a cerebellum-like structure in weakly electric fish. We found, both analytically and numerically, that this network displays three different regimes of gain control: subtractive, divisive, and non-monotonic. Subtractive gain control was obtained when noise is very low in the network. Also, it was possible to change from divisive to non-monotonic gain control by simply modulating the strength of the feedforward inhibition, which may be achieved via long-term synaptic plasticity. The particular case of divisive gain control has been previously observed in vivo in weakly electric fish. These gain control regimes were robust to the presence of temporal delays in the inhibitory feedforward pathway, which were found to linearize the input-to-output mappings (or f-I curves) via a novel variability-increasing mechanism. Our findings highlight the feedforward-induced gain control analyzed here as a highly versatile mechanism of information gating in the brain. PMID:24616694

Adaptive Locomotor Behavior in Larval Zebrafish

PubMed Central

Portugues, Ruben; Engert, Florian

2011-01-01

In this study we report that larval zebrafish display adaptive locomotor output that can be driven by unexpected visual feedback. We develop a new assay that addresses visuomotor integration in restrained larval zebrafish. The assay involves a closed-loop environment in which the visual feedback a larva receives depends on its own motor output in a way that resembles freely swimming conditions. The experimenter can control the gain of this closed feedback loop, so that following a given motor output the larva experiences more or less visual feedback depending on whether the gain is high or low. We show that increases and decreases in this gain setting result in adaptive changes in behavior that lead to a generalized decrease or increase of motor output, respectively. Our behavioral analysis shows that both the duration and tail beat frequency of individual swim bouts can be modified, as well as the frequency with which bouts are elicited. These changes can be implemented rapidly, following an exposure to a new gain of just 175 ms. In addition, modifications in some behavioral parameters accumulate over tens of seconds and effects last for at least 30 s from trial to trial. These results suggest that larvae establish an internal representation of the visual feedback expected from a given motor output and that the behavioral modifications are driven by an error signal that arises from the discrepancy between this expectation and the actual visual feedback. The assay we develop presents a unique possibility for studying visuomotor integration using imaging techniques available in the larval zebrafish. PMID:21909325

Adaptive locomotor behavior in larval zebrafish.

PubMed

Portugues, Ruben; Engert, Florian

2011-01-01

In this study we report that larval zebrafish display adaptive locomotor output that can be driven by unexpected visual feedback. We develop a new assay that addresses visuomotor integration in restrained larval zebrafish. The assay involves a closed-loop environment in which the visual feedback a larva receives depends on its own motor output in a way that resembles freely swimming conditions. The experimenter can control the gain of this closed feedback loop, so that following a given motor output the larva experiences more or less visual feedback depending on whether the gain is high or low. We show that increases and decreases in this gain setting result in adaptive changes in behavior that lead to a generalized decrease or increase of motor output, respectively. Our behavioral analysis shows that both the duration and tail beat frequency of individual swim bouts can be modified, as well as the frequency with which bouts are elicited. These changes can be implemented rapidly, following an exposure to a new gain of just 175 ms. In addition, modifications in some behavioral parameters accumulate over tens of seconds and effects last for at least 30 s from trial to trial. These results suggest that larvae establish an internal representation of the visual feedback expected from a given motor output and that the behavioral modifications are driven by an error signal that arises from the discrepancy between this expectation and the actual visual feedback. The assay we develop presents a unique possibility for studying visuomotor integration using imaging techniques available in the larval zebrafish.

Neural signatures of economic parameters during decision-making: a functional MRI (FMRI), electroencephalography (EEG) and autonomic monitoring study.

PubMed

Minati, Ludovico; Grisoli, Marina; Franceschetti, Silvana; Epifani, Francesca; Granvillano, Alice; Medford, Nick; Harrison, Neil A; Piacentini, Sylvie; Critchley, Hugo D

2012-01-01

Adaptive behaviour requires an ability to obtain rewards by choosing between different risky options. Financial gambles can be used to study effective decision-making experimentally, and to distinguish processes involved in choice option evaluation from outcome feedback and other contextual factors. Here, we used a paradigm where participants evaluated 'mixed' gambles, each presenting a potential gain and a potential loss and an associated variable outcome probability. We recorded neural responses using autonomic monitoring, electroencephalography (EEG) and functional neuroimaging (fMRI), and used a univariate, parametric design to test for correlations with the eleven economic parameters that varied across gambles, including expected value (EV) and amount magnitude. Consistent with behavioural economic theory, participants were risk-averse. Gamble evaluation generated detectable autonomic responses, but only weak correlations with outcome uncertainty were found, suggesting that peripheral autonomic feedback does not play a major role in this task. Long-latency stimulus-evoked EEG potentials were sensitive to expected gain and expected value, while alpha-band power reflected expected loss and amount magnitude, suggesting parallel representations of distinct economic qualities in cortical activation and central arousal. Neural correlates of expected value representation were localized using fMRI to ventromedial prefrontal cortex, while the processing of other economic parameters was associated with distinct patterns across lateral prefrontal, cingulate, insula and occipital cortices including default-mode network and early visual areas. These multimodal data provide complementary evidence for distributed substrates of choice evaluation across multiple, predominantly cortical, brain systems wherein distinct regions are preferentially attuned to specific economic features. Our findings extend biologically-plausible models of risky decision-making while providing potential biomarkers of economic representations that can be applied to the study of deficits in motivational behaviour in neurological and psychiatric patients.

Teaching Prospect Theory with the "Deal or No Deal" Game Show

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Ardith; Bittner, Teresa; Makrigeorgis, Christos; Johnson, Gloria; Haefner, Joseph

2010-01-01

Recent evidence indicates that decision makers are more sensitive to potential losses than gains. Loss aversion psychology has led behavioural economists to look beyond expected utility by developing "prospect theory." We demonstrate this theory using the "Deal or No Deal" game show.

The Foreign TA: A Guide to Teaching Effectiveness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gburek, Janice L., Ed.; Dunnett, Stephen C., Ed.

Articles on teaching effectiveness for foreign teaching assistants (TAs) are presented. Topics include: adapting to the U.S. academic environment, understanding the role of the TA and gaining confidence, anticipating undergraduates' expectations, improving communication skills, and teaching laboratory classes and recitation classes. Titles and…

Tolerance of Cottonwood to Damage by Cottonwood Leaf Beetle

Treesearch

F. L. Oliveria; D. T. Cooper

1977-01-01

Wide variation in tolerance to the cottonwood leaf beetle was found in fourteen hundred eastern cottonwood clones, originating from 36 young natural stands along the Mississippi River from Memphis, Tennessee, to Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Expected genetic gains were large enough to justify further research.

Standardization of health data – ICAR guidelines including health key

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Systematic improvement of animal health requires knowledge about the status quo and reliable measures to characterize it. In dairy herds, health monitoring has gained importance to ensure sustainable and cost-efficient milk production in accordance with public expectations. In this context, standard...

Conversion Intentions of Interns: What Are the Motivating Factors?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurst, Jessica L.; Good, Linda K.; Gardner, Phil

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate interns' supervisory support expectations, psychological contract obligations, job satisfaction, perception of advancement opportunities and affective organisational commitment in an attempt to gain a better understanding of how these variables influence interns' conversion intentions.…

The Drag Penalty of Lateral Asymmetries in Formation Flight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weihs, Daniel; Gabbay, Karen

2006-11-01

It has long been known that formation flight of birds and aircraft results in a significant energy saving due to reduction in induced drag. However measured gains have consistently been lower, usually explained by viscous effects neglected by the potential flow model for lift and induced drag. We show that the inherent asymmetry of the flow-field in the general case results in rolling and yawing moments, which need to be corrected by control surface reflection. This deflection results in an increase in drag, which partially cancels the gains mentioned above. Using classical lifting line theory and elliptical lift distributions on two or more wings flying in formation we show that the penalty incurred by these corrections can reduce the expected gains by up to 25%. We also show that the gains for an individual in formation flight grow with the number of members of the formation, up to about 7 members, the added gains becoming negligible beyond that number. The present results are relevant for large aspect-ratio, fixed wing aircraft, and gliding bird flocks.

Flood-tolerant rice reduces yield variability and raises expected yield, differentially benefitting socially disadvantaged groups

PubMed Central

Dar, Manzoor H.; de Janvry, Alain; Emerick, Kyle; Raitzer, David; Sadoulet, Elisabeth

2013-01-01

Approximately 30% of the cultivated rice area in India is prone to crop damage from prolonged flooding. We use a randomized field experiment in 128 villages of Orissa India to show that Swarna-Sub1, a recently released submergence-tolerant rice variety, has significant positive impacts on rice yield when fields are submerged for 7 to 14 days with no yield penalty without flooding. We estimate that Swarna-Sub1 offers an approximate 45% increase in yields over the current popular variety when fields are submerged for 10 days. We show additionally that low-lying areas prone to flooding tend to be more heavily occupied by people belonging to lower caste social groups. Thus, a policy relevant implication of our findings is that flood-tolerant rice can deliver both efficiency gains, through reduced yield variability and higher expected yield, and equity gains in disproportionately benefiting the most marginal group of farmers. PMID:24263095

GEOS-C altimeter attitude bias error correction. [gate-tracking radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marini, J. W.

1974-01-01

A pulse-limited split-gate-tracking radar altimeter was flown on Skylab and will be used aboard GEOS-C. If such an altimeter were to employ a hypothetical isotropic antenna, the altimeter output would be independent of spacecraft orientation. To reduce power requirements the gain of the altimeter antenna proposed is increased to the point where its beamwidth is only a few degrees. The gain of the antenna consequently varies somewhat over the pulse-limited illuminated region of the ocean below the altimeter, and the altimeter output varies with antenna orientation. The error introduced into the altimeter data is modeled empirically, but close agreements with the expected errors was not realized. The attitude error effects expected with the GEOS-C altimeter are modelled using a form suggested by an analytical derivation. The treatment is restricted to the case of a relatively smooth sea, where the height of the ocean waves are small relative to the spatial length (pulse duration times speed of light) of the transmitted pulse.

Development and Pilot Testing of the Eating4two Mobile Phone App to Monitor Gestational Weight Gain.

PubMed

Knight-Agarwal, Catherine; Davis, Deborah Lee; Williams, Lauren; Davey, Rachel; Cox, Robert; Clarke, Adam

2015-06-05

The number of pregnant women with a body mass index (BMI) of 30kg/m(2) or more is increasing, which has important implications for antenatal care. Various resource-intensive interventions have attempted to assist women in managing their weight gain during pregnancy with limited success. A mobile phone app has been proposed as a convenient and cost-effective alternative to face-to-face interventions. This paper describes the process of developing and pilot testing the Eating4Two app, which aims to provide women with a simple gestational weight gain (GWG) calculator, general dietary information, and the motivation to achieve a healthy weight gain during pregnancy. The project involved the development of app components, including a graphing function that allows the user to record their weight throughout the pregnancy and to receive real-time feedback on weight gain progress and general information on antenatal nutrition. Stakeholder consultation was used to inform development. The app was pilot tested with 10 pregnant women using a mixed method approach via an online survey, 2 focus groups, and 1 individual interview. The Eating4Two app took 7 months to develop and evaluate. It involved several disciplines--including nutrition and dietetics, midwifery, public health, and information technology--at the University of Canberra. Participants found the Eating4Two app to be a motivational tool but would have liked scales or other markers on the graph that demonstrated exact weight gain. They also liked the nutrition information; however, many felt it should be formatted in a more user friendly way. The Eating4Two app was viewed by participants in our study as an innovative support system to help motivate healthy behaviors during pregnancy and as a credible resource for accessing nutrition-focused information. The feedback provided by participants will assist with refining the current prototype for use in a clinical intervention trial.

Development and Pilot Testing of the Eating4two Mobile Phone App to Monitor Gestational Weight Gain

PubMed Central

Davis, Deborah Lee; Williams, Lauren; Davey, Rachel; Cox, Robert; Clarke, Adam

2015-01-01

Background The number of pregnant women with a body mass index (BMI) of 30kg/m2 or more is increasing, which has important implications for antenatal care. Various resource-intensive interventions have attempted to assist women in managing their weight gain during pregnancy with limited success. A mobile phone app has been proposed as a convenient and cost-effective alternative to face-to-face interventions. Objective This paper describes the process of developing and pilot testing the Eating4Two app, which aims to provide women with a simple gestational weight gain (GWG) calculator, general dietary information, and the motivation to achieve a healthy weight gain during pregnancy. Methods The project involved the development of app components, including a graphing function that allows the user to record their weight throughout the pregnancy and to receive real-time feedback on weight gain progress and general information on antenatal nutrition. Stakeholder consultation was used to inform development. The app was pilot tested with 10 pregnant women using a mixed method approach via an online survey, 2 focus groups, and 1 individual interview. Results The Eating4Two app took 7 months to develop and evaluate. It involved several disciplines--including nutrition and dietetics, midwifery, public health, and information technology--at the University of Canberra. Participants found the Eating4Two app to be a motivational tool but would have liked scales or other markers on the graph that demonstrated exact weight gain. They also liked the nutrition information; however, many felt it should be formatted in a more user friendly way. Conclusions The Eating4Two app was viewed by participants in our study as an innovative support system to help motivate healthy behaviors during pregnancy and as a credible resource for accessing nutrition-focused information. The feedback provided by participants will assist with refining the current prototype for use in a clinical intervention trial. PMID:26048313

Analysis of repeated signals during shell fights in the hermit crab Pagurus bernhardus

PubMed Central

Briffa, M.; Elwood, R. W.; Dick, J. T. A.

1998-01-01

Shell exchanges between hermit crabs may occur after a period of shell rapping, when the initiating or attacking crab brings its shell rapidly and repeatedly into contact with the shell of the non-initiator or defender, in a series of bouts. There are two opposing models of hermit crab shell exchange and the function of shell rapping. The negotiation model views shell exchange as a mutualistic activity, in which the initiator supplies information about the quality of its shell via the fundamental frequency of the rapping sound. The aggression model views shell rapping as either detrimental to the defending crab, or as providing it with information about the initiator's ability or motivation to continue, or both. The negotiation model makes no predictions about the temporal pattern of rapping, but under the aggression model it would be expected that crabs that rapped more vigorously would be more likely to effect an exchange. Repeating the signal could be expected under either model. Crabs that achieve an exchange rap more vigorously, rapping is more persistent when a clear gain in shell quality may be achieved, and the vigour is greater when the relative resource-holding potential (or 'fighting ability') is high. These findings support the aggression model rather than the negotiation model. Contrary to the predictions of game theory, crabs that do not effect an exchange appear to signal that they are about to give up. The data suggest that rapping is performed repeatedly because the accumulation of all of the performances acts as a signal of stamina.

Communicating asset risk: how name recognition and the format of historic volatility information affect risk perception and investment decisions.

PubMed

Weber, Elke U; Siebenmorgen, Niklas; Weber, Martin

2005-06-01

An experiment examined how the type and presentation format of information about investment options affected investors' expectations about asset risk, returns, and volatility and how these expectations related to asset choice. Respondents were provided with the names of 16 domestic and foreign investment options, with 10-year historical return information for these options, or with both. Historical returns were presented either as a bar graph of returns per year or as a continuous density distribution. Provision of asset names allowed for the investigation of the mechanisms underlying the home bias in investment choice and other asset familiarity effects. Respondents provided their expectations of future returns, volatility, and expected risk, and indicated the options they would choose to invest in. Expected returns closely resembled historical expected values. Risk and volatility perceptions both varied significantly as a function of the type and format of information, but in different ways. Expected returns and perceived risk, not predicted volatility, predicted portfolio decisions.

Discounting and decision making in the economic evaluation of health-care technologies.

PubMed

Claxton, Karl; Paulden, Mike; Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Culyer, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Discounting costs and health benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis has been the subject of recent debate - some authors suggesting a common rate for both and others suggesting a lower rate for health. We show how these views turn on key judgments of fact and value: on whether the social objective is to maximise discounted health outcomes or the present consumption value of health; on whether the budget for health care is fixed; on the expected growth in the cost-effectiveness threshold; and on the expected growth in the consumption value of health. We demonstrate that if the budget for health care is fixed and decisions are based on incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounting costs and health gains at the same rate is correct only if the threshold remains constant. Expecting growth in the consumption value of health does not itself justify differential rates but implies a lower rate for both. However, whether one believes that the objective should be the maximisation of the present value of health or the present consumption value of health, adopting the social time preference rate for consumption as the discount rate for costs and health gains is valid only under strong and implausible assumptions about values and facts. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamics of short-pulse generation via spectral filtering from intensely excited gain-switched 1.55-μm distributed-feedback laser diodes.

PubMed

Chen, Shaoqiang; Yoshita, Masahiro; Sato, Aya; Ito, Takashi; Akiyama, Hidefumi; Yokoyama, Hiroyuki

2013-05-06

Picosecond-pulse-generation dynamics and pulse-width limiting factors via spectral filtering from intensely pulse-excited gain-switched 1.55-μm distributed-feedback laser diodes were studied. The spectral and temporal characteristics of the spectrally filtered pulses indicated that the short-wavelength component stems from the initial part of the gain-switched main pulse and has a nearly linear down-chirp of 5.2 ps/nm, whereas long-wavelength components include chirped pulse-lasing components and steady-state-lasing components. Rate-equation calculations with a model of linear change in refractive index with carrier density explained the major features of the experimental results. The analysis of the expected pulse widths with optimum spectral widths was also consistent with the experimental data.

Collaborative research in tunneling and field emission pumped surface wave local oscillators and amplifiers for infrared and submillimeter wavelengths under director's discretionary fund

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gustafson, T. K.

1982-01-01

Progress is reported in work towards the development of surface wave sources for the infrared and sub-millimeter portion of the spectrum to be based upon electron pumping by tunneling electrons in metal-barrier-metal or metal-barrier-semiconductor devices. Tunneling phenomena and the coupling of radiation to tunnel junctions were studied. The propagation characteristics of surface electro-magnetic modes in metal-insulator-p(++) semiconductor structures as a function of frequency were calculated. A model for the gain process based upon Tucker's formalism was developed and used to estimate what low frequency gain might be expected from such structures. The question of gain was addressed from a more fundamental viewpoint using the method of Lasher and Stern.

Genetic-economic evaluation of traits in a goose meat enterprise.

PubMed

Shalev, B A; Pasternak, H

1999-05-01

1. Goose can be considered as an additional and inexpensive meat source, provided that the marketing age does not exceed 8 weeks. Using the ability of geese to eat grass may reduce the intake of concentrated food up to 30%. 2. According to an equation developed, growth rate accounts for about 58% of the annual breeding gains, egg number 28%, feather yield 10%, fertility and mortality about 2%. These values are about the same for a wide range of food prices. 3. Employing realistic values for expected annual genetic gains reveals that the customary practice of keeping breeders for 5 to 6 years should be replaced by a much shorter cycle of 3 years because the economic gain from the shorter generation interval of selection exceeds the replacement costs.

Service user satisfaction with cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis: Associations with therapy outcomes and perceptions of the therapist.

PubMed

Lawlor, Caroline; Sharma, Bina; Khondoker, Mizanur; Peters, Emmanuelle; Kuipers, Elizabeth; Johns, Louise

2017-03-01

Few studies have investigated service user satisfaction with cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis (CBTp). This study explored its associations with clinical presentation and outcomes, retrospective expectations of progress, perceptions of the therapist, and demographic variables. One hundred and sixty-five service users completed self-report questionnaires pre- and post-CBTp in relation to the constructs of interest. Regression analyses explored associations with (1) overall satisfaction with therapy and (2) perceived progress, skills, and knowledge gained. Ninety-six per cent of service users reported satisfaction with therapy. Higher levels of overall satisfaction with, and perceived benefit from, therapy were associated with positive therapy expectations, positive ratings of therapist's personal qualities, competence and trustworthiness, lower pre-therapy depression, and improvements in quality of life. Symptom improvements were not related to overall satisfaction with therapy; however, with the exception of voices, better clinical outcomes were associated with subjective ratings of having made more progress and gained more CBT skills and knowledge. Demographic factors were not associated with satisfaction or perceived progress. In multiple regression analyses, expectations of progress showed the strongest associations with both satisfaction and perceived benefits. Other remaining significant associations consisted of perceptions of the therapist for satisfaction, and both pre-therapy levels of, and changes in, depression for perceived benefits. Qualitative feedback emphasized the importance of the therapeutic relationship and developing new coping strategies. The findings provide preliminary evidence that high levels of satisfaction with therapy are not contingent on good clinical outcomes and are instead associated with positive therapy expectations and perceptions of the therapist. Therapy expectations represent a neglected area of research and may have implications for levels of satisfaction with therapy and perceived benefit. The findings reinforce the importance of cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis (CBTp) therapists demonstrating that they are supportive, competent, and trustworthy. The findings suggest that positive experiences of therapy do not require changes in psychosis symptoms and are instead related to changes in quality of life. Depressive symptoms at the start of therapy may adversely influence the extent to which CBT skills and knowledge are gained and levels of perceived progress at the end of therapy. The present sample was restricted to service users who completed therapy. Satisfaction levels were high. Further research is needed to explore factors associated with dissatisfaction with therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

A Note on the Equivalence between Observed and Expected Information Functions with Polytomous IRT Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magis, David

2015-01-01

The purpose of this note is to study the equivalence of observed and expected (Fisher) information functions with polytomous item response theory (IRT) models. It is established that observed and expected information functions are equivalent for the class of divide-by-total models (including partial credit, generalized partial credit, rating…

Economic evaluation of interventions designed to reduce Clostridium difficile infection.

PubMed

Brain, David; Yakob, Laith; Barnett, Adrian; Riley, Thomas; Clements, Archie; Halton, Kate; Graves, Nicholas

2018-01-01

Healthcare decision-makers are increasingly expected to balance increasing demand for health services with a finite budget. The role of economic evaluation in healthcare is increasing and this research provides decision-makers with new information about the management of Clostridium difficile infection, from an economic perspective. A model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify the most cost-effective healthcare intervention relating to the reduction of Clostridium difficile transmission. Efficacy evidence was synthesised from the literature and was used to inform the effectiveness of both bundled approaches and stand-alone interventions, where appropriate intervention combinations were coupled together. Changes in health outcomes were estimated by combining information about intervention effectiveness and its subsequent impact on quality of life. A bundled approach of improving hand hygiene and environmental cleaning produces the best combination of increased health benefits and cost-savings. It has the highest mean net monetary benefit when compared to all other interventions. This intervention remains the optimal decision under different clinical circumstances, such as when mortality rate and patient length of stay are increased. Bundled interventions offered the best opportunity for health improvements. These findings provide healthcare decision-makers with novel information about the allocation of scarce resources relating to Clostridium difficile. If investments are not made in interventions that clearly yield gains in health outcomes, the allocation and use of scarce healthcare resources is inappropriate and improvements in health outcomes will be forgone.