The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna: A space-based Gravitational Wave Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorpe, James Ira; McNamara, Paul

2018-01-01

After decades of persistence, scientists have recently developed facilities which can measure the vibrations of spacetime caused by astrophysical cataclysms such as the mergers of black holes and neutron stars. The first few detections have presented some interesting astrophysical questions and it is clear that with an increase in the number and capability of ground-based facilities, gravitational waves will become an important tool for astronomy. A space-based observatory will complement these efforts by providing access to the milliHertz gravitational wave band, which is expected to be rich in both number and variety of sources. The European Space Agency (ESA) has recently selected the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) as a Large-Class mission in its Cosmic Visions Programme. The modern LISA retains the basic design features of previous incarnations and, like its predecessors is expected to be a collaboration between ESA, NASA, and a number of European States. In this poster, we present an overview of the current LISA design, its scientific capabilities, and the timeline to launch.

Cloud Surprises in Moving NASA EOSDIS Applications into Amazon Web Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mclaughlin, Brett

2017-01-01

NASA ESDIS has been moving a variety of data ingest, distribution, and science data processing applications into a cloud environment over the last 2 years. As expected, there have been a number of challenges in migrating primarily on-premises applications into a cloud-based environment, related to architecture and taking advantage of cloud-based services. What was not expected is a number of issues that were beyond purely technical application re-architectures. We ran into surprising network policy limitations, billing challenges in a government-based cost model, and difficulty in obtaining certificates in an NASA security-compliant manner. On the other hand, this approach has allowed us to move a number of applications from local hosting to the cloud in a matter of hours (yes, hours!!), and our CMR application now services 95% of granule searches and an astonishing 99% of all collection searches in under a second. And most surprising of all, well, you'll just have to wait and see the realization that caught our entire team off guard!

Epidemiology of measles in Southwest Nigeria: an analysis of measles case-based surveillance data from 2007 to 2012.

PubMed

Fatiregun, Akinola A; Adebowale, Ayodeji S; Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi F

2014-03-01

In Nigeria, a system of measles case-based surveillance with laboratory confirmation of suspected cases was introduced in 2005 as one of the strategies for the control of measles morbidity and mortality. In this report, we provide an epidemiological distribution of confirmed cases of measles reported from the southwest of the country between 2007 and 2012, and predict the expected number of cases for the ensuing years. A descriptive analysis of persons and place and time of confirmed measles cases (laboratory and epidemiological link) reported in the case-based surveillance data was carried out. Using an additive time series model, we predicted the expected number of cases to the year 2015, assuming that current interventional efforts were sustained. From the 10 187 suspected cases investigated during the time period, 1631 (16.0%) cases of measles were confirmed. The annual incidence rose from <1 case per million in 2007 to 23 cases per million in 2011. Cases were confirmed from all six states within the zone and most (97.4%) were in individuals aged less than 20 years. Seasonal variation existed with peaks of infection in the first and second quarters of the year. There was an increasing trend in the number of expected cases based on projections. Case-based surveillance provided an insight into understanding the epidemiology of measles infection in Southwest Nigeria. There is a need to work out alternate strategies for control of measles and to strengthen the surveillance system.

Assessing the impact of heart failure specialist services on patient populations.

PubMed

Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Cook, Gary A; McElduff, Patrick; Havely, Daniel; Edwards, Richard; Heller, Richard F

2004-05-24

The assessment of the impact of healthcare interventions may help commissioners of healthcare services to make optimal decisions. This can be particularly the case if the impact assessment relates to specific patient populations and uses timely local data. We examined the potential impact on readmissions and mortality of specialist heart failure services capable of delivering treatments such as b-blockers and Nurse-Led Educational Intervention (N-LEI). Statistical modelling of prevented or postponed events among previously hospitalised patients, using estimates of: treatment uptake and contraindications (based on local audit data); treatment effectiveness and intolerance (based on literature); and annual number of hospitalization per patient and annual risk of death (based on routine data). Optimal treatment uptake among eligible but untreated patients would over one year prevent or postpone 11% of all expected readmissions and 18% of all expected deaths for spironolactone, 13% of all expected readmisisons and 22% of all expected deaths for b-blockers (carvedilol) and 20% of all expected readmissions and an uncertain number of deaths for N-LEI. Optimal combined treatment uptake for all three interventions during one year among all eligible but untreated patients would prevent or postpone 37% of all expected readmissions and a minimum of 36% of all expected deaths. In a population of previously hospitalised patients with low previous uptake of b-blockers and no uptake of N-LEI, optimal combined uptake of interventions through specialist heart failure services can potentially help prevent or postpone approximately four times as many readmissions and a minimum of twice as many deaths compared with simply optimising uptake of spironolactone (not necessarily requiring specialist services). Examination of the impact of different heart failure interventions can inform rational planning of relevant healthcare services.

Balancing the popularity bias of object similarities for personalised recommendation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Lei; Pan, Xue; Liu, Kecheng

2018-03-01

Network-based similarity measures have found wide applications in recommendation algorithms and made significant contributions for uncovering users' potential interests. However, existing measures are generally biased in terms of popularity, that the popular objects tend to have more common neighbours with others and thus are considered more similar to others. Such popularity bias of similarity quantification will result in the biased recommendations, with either poor accuracy or poor diversity. Based on the bipartite network modelling of the user-object interactions, this paper firstly calculates the expected number of common neighbours of two objects with given popularities in random networks. A Balanced Common Neighbour similarity index is accordingly developed by removing the random-driven common neighbours, estimated as the expected number, from the total number. Recommendation experiments in three data sets show that balancing the popularity bias in a certain degree can significantly improve the recommendations' accuracy and diversity simultaneously.

Biobased lubricant additives

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fully biobased lubricants are those formulated using all biobased ingredients, i.e. biobased base oils and biobased additives. Such formulations provide the maximum environmental, safety, and economic benefits expected from a biobased product. Currently, there are a number of biobased base oils that...

Feasibility study on measuring axial and transverse stress/strain components in composite materials using Bragg sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luyckx, G.; Degrieck, J.; De Waele, W.; Van Paepegem, W.; Van Roosbroeck, J.; Chah, K.; Vlekken, J.; McKenzie, I.; Obst, A.

2017-11-01

A fibre optic sensor design is proposed for simultaneously measuring the 3D stress (or strain) components and temperature inside thermo hardened composite materials. The sensor is based on two fibre Bragg gratings written in polarisation maintaining fibre. Based on calculations of the condition number, it will be shown that reasonable accuracies are to be expected. First tests on the bare sensors and on the sensors embedded in composite material, which confirm the expected behaviour, will be presented.

Sustainable rangeland-based livestock production: A perspective on USA and global emerging trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A recent review of statistics published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization showed that global livestock numbers have increased steadily over the past 30 years. By 2030, livestock numbers in the developing world are expected to reach record highs that will surpass livestock popul...

Reader reaction: A note on the evaluation of group testing algorithms in the presence of misclassification.

PubMed

Malinovsky, Yaakov; Albert, Paul S; Roy, Anindya

2016-03-01

In the context of group testing screening, McMahan, Tebbs, and Bilder (2012, Biometrics 68, 287-296) proposed a two-stage procedure in a heterogenous population in the presence of misclassification. In earlier work published in Biometrics, Kim, Hudgens, Dreyfuss, Westreich, and Pilcher (2007, Biometrics 63, 1152-1162) also proposed group testing algorithms in a homogeneous population with misclassification. In both cases, the authors evaluated performance of the algorithms based on the expected number of tests per person, with the optimal design being defined by minimizing this quantity. The purpose of this article is to show that although the expected number of tests per person is an appropriate evaluation criteria for group testing when there is no misclassification, it may be problematic when there is misclassification. Specifically, a valid criterion needs to take into account the amount of correct classification and not just the number of tests. We propose, a more suitable objective function that accounts for not only the expected number of tests, but also the expected number of correct classifications. We then show how using this objective function that accounts for correct classification is important for design when considering group testing under misclassification. We also present novel analytical results which characterize the optimal Dorfman (1943) design under the misclassification. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Causes of mortality in laying hens in different housing systems in 2001 to 2004

PubMed Central

Fossum, Oddvar; Jansson, Désirée S; Etterlin, Pernille Engelsen; Vågsholm, Ivar

2009-01-01

Background The husbandry systems for laying hens were changed in Sweden during the years 2001 – 2004, and an increase in the number of submissions for necropsy from laying hen farms was noted. Hence, this study was initiated to compare causes of mortality in different housing systems for commercial laying hens during this change. Methods Based on results from routine necropsies of 914 laying hens performed at the National Veterinary Institute (SVA) in Uppsala, Sweden between 2001 and 2004, a retrospective study on the occurrence of diseases and cannibalism, i.e., pecking leading to mortality, in different housing systems was carried out. Using the number of disease outbreaks in caged flocks as the baseline, the expected number of flocks with a certain category of disease in the other housing systems was estimated having regard to the total number of birds in the population. Whether the actual number of flocks significantly exceeded the expected number was determined using a Poisson distribution for the variance of the baseline number, a continuity correction and the exact value for the Poisson distribution function in Excel 2000. Results Common causes of mortality in necropsied laying hens included colibacillosis, erysipelas, coccidiosis, red mite infestation, lymphoid leukosis and cannibalism. Less common diagnoses were Newcastle Disease, pasteurellosis and botulism. Considering the size of the populations in the different housing systems, a larger proportion of laying hens than expected was submitted for necropsy from litter-based systems and free range production compared to hens in cages (P < 0.001). The study showed a significantly higher occurrence of bacterial and parasitic diseases and cannibalism in laying hens kept in litter-based housing systems and free-range systems than in hens kept in cages (P < 0.001). The occurrence of viral diseases was significantly higher in indoor litter-based housing systems than in cages (P < 0.001). Conclusion The results of the present study indicated that during 2001–2004 laying hens housed in litter-based housing systems, with or without access to outdoor areas, were at higher risk of infectious diseases and cannibalistic behaviour compared to laying hens in cages. Future research should focus on finding suitable prophylactic measures, including efficient biosecurity routines, to reduce the risk of infectious diseases and cannibalism in litter-based housing systems for laying hens. PMID:19146656

Algebraic function operator expectation value based quantum eigenstate determination: A case of twisted or bent Hamiltonian, or, a spatially univariate quantum system on a curved space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baykara, N. A.

Recent studies on quantum evolutionary problems in Demiralp’s group have arrived at a stage where the construction of an expectation value formula for a given algebraic function operator depending on only position operator becomes possible. It has also been shown that this formula turns into an algebraic recursion amongst some finite number of consecutive elements in a set of expectation values of an appropriately chosen basis set over the natural number powers of the position operator as long as the function under consideration and the system Hamiltonian are both autonomous. This recursion corresponds to a denumerable infinite number of algebraicmore » equations whose solutions can or can not be obtained analytically. This idea is not completely original. There are many recursive relations amongst the expectation values of the natural number powers of position operator. However, those recursions may not be always efficient to get the system energy values and especially the eigenstate wavefunctions. The present approach is somehow improved and generalized form of those expansions. We focus on this issue for a specific system where the Hamiltonian is defined on the coordinate of a curved space instead of the Cartesian one.« less

Cloud Surprises Discovered in Moving NASA EOSDIS Applications into Amazon Web Services… and #6 Will Shock You!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, B. D.; Pawloski, A. W.

2017-12-01

NASA ESDIS has been moving a variety of data ingest, distribution, and science data processing applications into a cloud environment over the last 2 years. As expected, there have been a number of challenges in migrating primarily on-premises applications into a cloud-based environment, related to architecture and taking advantage of cloud-based services. What was not expected is a number of issues that were beyond purely technical application re-architectures. From surprising network policy limitations, billing challenges in a government-based cost model, and obtaining certificates in an NASA security-compliant manner to working with multiple applications in a shared and resource-constrained AWS account, these have been the relevant challenges in taking advantage of a cloud model. And most surprising of all… well, you'll just have to wait and see the "gotcha" that caught our entire team off guard!

Fixed-rate layered multicast congestion control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bing, Zhang; Bing, Yuan; Zengji, Liu

2006-10-01

A new fixed-rate layered multicast congestion control algorithm called FLMCC is proposed. The sender of a multicast session transmits data packets at a fixed rate on each layer, while receivers each obtain different throughput by cumulatively subscribing to deferent number of layers based on their expected rates. In order to provide TCP-friendliness and estimate the expected rate accurately, a window-based mechanism implemented at receivers is presented. To achieve this, each receiver maintains a congestion window, adjusts it based on the GAIMD algorithm, and from the congestion window an expected rate is calculated. To measure RTT, a new method is presented which combines an accurate measurement with a rough estimation. A feedback suppression based on a random timer mechanism is given to avoid feedback implosion in the accurate measurement. The protocol is simple in its implementation. Simulations indicate that FLMCC shows good TCP-friendliness, responsiveness as well as intra-protocol fairness, and provides high link utilization.

How gender-expectancy affects the processing of "them".

PubMed

Doherty, Alice; Conklin, Kathy

2017-04-01

How sensitive is pronoun processing to expectancies based on real-world knowledge and language usage? The current study links research on the integration of gender stereotypes and number-mismatch to explore this question. It focuses on the use of them to refer to antecedents of different levels of gender-expectancy (low-cyclist, high-mechanic, known-spokeswoman). In a rating task, them is considered increasingly unnatural with greater gender-expectancy. However, participants might not be able to differentiate high-expectancy and gender-known antecedents online because they initially search for plural antecedents (e.g., Sanford & Filik), and they make all-or-nothing gender inferences. An eye-tracking study reveals early differences in the processing of them with antecedents of high gender-expectancy compared with gender-known antecedents. This suggests that participants have rapid access to the expected gender of the antecedent and the level of that expectancy.

Modified Dempster-Shafer approach using an expected utility interval decision rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheaito, Ali; Lecours, Michael; Bosse, Eloi

1999-03-01

The combination operation of the conventional Dempster- Shafer algorithm has a tendency to increase exponentially the number of propositions involved in bodies of evidence by creating new ones. The aim of this paper is to explore a 'modified Dempster-Shafer' approach of fusing identity declarations emanating form different sources which include a number of radars, IFF and ESM systems in order to limit the explosion of the number of propositions. We use a non-ad hoc decision rule based on the expected utility interval to select the most probable object in a comprehensive Platform Data Base containing all the possible identity values that a potential target may take. We study the effect of the redistribution of the confidence levels of the eliminated propositions which otherwise overload the real-time data fusion system; these eliminated confidence levels can in particular be assigned to ignorance, or uniformly added to the remaining propositions and to ignorance. A scenario has been selected to demonstrate the performance of our modified Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning.

Decennial trends and inequalities in healthy life expectancy: The HUNT Study, Norway.

PubMed

Storeng, Siri H; Krokstad, Steinar; Westin, Steinar; Sund, Erik R

2018-02-01

Norway is experiencing a rising life expectancy combined with an increasing dependency ratio - the ratio of those outside over those within the working force. To provide data relevant for future health policy we wanted to study trends in total and healthy life expectancy in a Norwegian population over three decades (1980s, 1990s and 2000s), both overall and across gender and educational groups. Data were obtained from the HUNT Study, and the Norwegian Educational Database. We calculated total life expectancy and used the Sullivan method to calculate healthy life expectancies based on self-rated health and self-reported longstanding limiting illness. The change in health expectancies was decomposed into mortality and disability effects. During three consecutive decades we found an increase in life expectancy for 30-year-olds (~7 years) and expected lifetime in self-rated good health (~6 years), but time without longstanding limiting illness increased less (1.5 years). Women could expect to live longer than men, but the extra life years for females were spent in poor self-rated health and with longstanding limiting illness. Differences in total life expectancy between educational groups decreased, whereas differences in expected lifetime in self-rated good health and lifetime without longstanding limiting illness increased. The increase in total life expectancy was accompanied by an increasing number of years spent in good self-rated health but more years with longstanding limiting illness. This suggests increasing health care needs for people with chronic diseases, given an increasing number of elderly. Socioeconomic health inequalities remain a challenge for increasing pensioning age.

Applying crash data to injury claims - an investigation of determinant factors in severe motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Shannon, Darren; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Eggert, Julian

2018-04-01

An extensive number of research studies have attempted to capture the factors that influence the severity of vehicle impacts. The high number of risks facing all traffic participants has led to a gradual increase in sophisticated data collection schemes linking crash characteristics to subsequent severity measures. This study serves as a departure from previous research by relating injuries suffered in road traffic accidents to expected trauma compensation payouts and deriving a quantitative cost function. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) Crash Injury Research (CIREN) database for the years 2005-2014 is combined with the Book of Quantum, an Irish governmental document that offers guidelines on the appropriate compensation to be awarded for injuries sustained in accidents. A multiple linear regression is carried out to identify the crash factors that significantly influence expected compensation costs and compared to ordered and multinomial logit models. The model offers encouraging results given the inherent variation expected in vehicular incidents and the subjectivity influencing compensation payout judgments, attaining an adjusted-R 2 fit of 20.6% when uninfluential factors are removed. It is found that relative speed at time of impact and dark conditions increase the expected costs, while rear-end incidents, incident sustained in van-based trucks and incidents sustained while turning result in lower expected compensations. The number of airbags available in the vehicle is also a significant factor. The scalar-outcome approach used in this research offers an alternative methodology to the discrete-outcome models that dominate traffic safety analyses. The results also raise queries on the future development of claims reserving (capital allocations earmarked for future expected claims payments) as advanced driver assistant systems (ADASs) seek to eradicate the most frequent types of crash factors upon which insurance mathematics base their assumptions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-Based Clustering of Regression Time Series Data via APECM -- An AECM Algorithm Sung to an Even Faster Beat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Wei-Chen; Maitra, Ranjan

2011-01-01

We propose a model-based approach for clustering time series regression data in an unsupervised machine learning framework to identify groups under the assumption that each mixture component follows a Gaussian autoregressive regression model of order p. Given the number of groups, the traditional maximum likelihood approach of estimating the parameters using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be employed, although it is computationally demanding. The somewhat fast tune to the EM folk song provided by the Alternating Expectation Conditional Maximization (AECM) algorithm can alleviate the problem to some extent. In this article, we develop an alternative partial expectation conditional maximization algorithmmore » (APECM) that uses an additional data augmentation storage step to efficiently implement AECM for finite mixture models. Results on our simulation experiments show improved performance in both fewer numbers of iterations and computation time. The methodology is applied to the problem of clustering mutual funds data on the basis of their average annual per cent returns and in the presence of economic indicators.« less

An Empirical Study of Instructor Adoption of Web-Based Learning Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Wei-Tsong; Wang, Chun-Chieh

2009-01-01

For years, web-based learning systems have been widely employed in both educational and non-educational institutions. Although web-based learning systems are emerging as a useful tool for facilitating teaching and learning activities, the number of users is not increasing as fast as expected. This study develops an integrated model of instructor…

Estimation of physician supply by specialty and the distribution impact of increasing female physicians in Japan.

PubMed

Koike, Soichi; Matsumoto, Shinya; Kodama, Tomoko; Ide, Hiroo; Yasunaga, Hideo; Imamura, Tomoaki

2009-10-07

Japan has experienced two large changes which affect the supply and distribution of physicians. They are increases in medical school enrollment capacity and in the proportion of female physicians. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future supply of physicians by specialty and to predict the associated impact of increased female physicians, as well as to discuss the possible policy implications. Based on data from the 2004 and 2006 National Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists, we estimated the future supply of physicians by specialty, using multistate life tables. Based on possible scenarios of the future increase in female physicians, we also estimated the supply of physicians by specialty. Even if Japan's current medical school enrollment capacity is maintained in subsequent years, the number of physicians per 1000 population is expected to increase from 2.2 in 2006 to 3.2 in 2036, which is a 46% increase from the current level. The numbers of obstetrician/gynecologists (OB/GYNs) and surgeons are expected to temporarily decline from their current level, whereas the number of OB/GYNs per 1000 births will still increase because of the declining number of births. The number of surgeons per 1000 population, even with the decreasing population, will decline temporarily over the next few years. If the percentage of female physicians continues to increase, the overall number of physicians will not be significantly affected, but in specialties with current very low female physician participation rates, such as surgery, the total number of physicians is expected to decline significantly. At the current medical school enrollment capacity, the number of physicians per population is expected to continue to increase because of the skewed age distribution of physicians and the declining population in Japan. However, with changes in young physicians' choices of medical specialties and as the percentage of female physicians increases, patterns of physician supply will vary between specialties. Specialties less often chosen by young physicians and where males have dominated will face a decline in physician supply. These results highlight the necessity for developing a work environment that attracts female physicians to these types of specialties. This will also lead to improved gender equality in the workforce and more effective use of human resources.

Estimation of physician supply by specialty and the distribution impact of increasing female physicians in Japan

PubMed Central

Koike, Soichi; Matsumoto, Shinya; Kodama, Tomoko; Ide, Hiroo; Yasunaga, Hideo; Imamura, Tomoaki

2009-01-01

Background Japan has experienced two large changes which affect the supply and distribution of physicians. They are increases in medical school enrollment capacity and in the proportion of female physicians. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future supply of physicians by specialty and to predict the associated impact of increased female physicians, as well as to discuss the possible policy implications. Methods Based on data from the 2004 and 2006 National Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists, we estimated the future supply of physicians by specialty, using multistate life tables. Based on possible scenarios of the future increase in female physicians, we also estimated the supply of physicians by specialty. Results Even if Japan's current medical school enrollment capacity is maintained in subsequent years, the number of physicians per 1000 population is expected to increase from 2.2 in 2006 to 3.2 in 2036, which is a 46% increase from the current level. The numbers of obstetrician/gynecologists (OB/GYNs) and surgeons are expected to temporarily decline from their current level, whereas the number of OB/GYNs per 1000 births will still increase because of the declining number of births. The number of surgeons per 1000 population, even with the decreasing population, will decline temporarily over the next few years. If the percentage of female physicians continues to increase, the overall number of physicians will not be significantly affected, but in specialties with current very low female physician participation rates, such as surgery, the total number of physicians is expected to decline significantly. Conclusion At the current medical school enrollment capacity, the number of physicians per population is expected to continue to increase because of the skewed age distribution of physicians and the declining population in Japan. However, with changes in young physicians' choices of medical specialties and as the percentage of female physicians increases, patterns of physician supply will vary between specialties. Specialties less often chosen by young physicians and where males have dominated will face a decline in physician supply. These results highlight the necessity for developing a work environment that attracts female physicians to these types of specialties. This will also lead to improved gender equality in the workforce and more effective use of human resources. PMID:19811625

User Manual for Personnel Inventory Aging and Promotion Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

increased by 12. Now, an SQL 9 statement deletes records where [target] = NULL, and the model calculates the number of E8s that need to be promoted to...the run, the [Likelihood] and [Expected] tables are created. The first step in this process is to dy- namically build an SQL statement, based on the...This table has individual-level, longitudinal records. Next, a dy- namically built SQL statement based on the Number of Years, cre- ates a new data

Automated real time constant-specificity surveillance for disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Wieland, Shannon C; Brownstein, John S; Berger, Bonnie; Mandl, Kenneth D

2007-06-13

For real time surveillance, detection of abnormal disease patterns is based on a difference between patterns observed, and those predicted by models of historical data. The usefulness of outbreak detection strategies depends on their specificity; the false alarm rate affects the interpretation of alarms. We evaluate the specificity of five traditional models: autoregressive, Serfling, trimmed seasonal, wavelet-based, and generalized linear. We apply each to 12 years of emergency department visits for respiratory infection syndromes at a pediatric hospital, finding that the specificity of the five models was almost always a non-constant function of the day of the week, month, and year of the study (p < 0.05). We develop an outbreak detection method, called the expectation-variance model, based on generalized additive modeling to achieve a constant specificity by accounting for not only the expected number of visits, but also the variance of the number of visits. The expectation-variance model achieves constant specificity on all three time scales, as well as earlier detection and improved sensitivity compared to traditional methods in most circumstances. Modeling the variance of visit patterns enables real-time detection with known, constant specificity at all times. With constant specificity, public health practitioners can better interpret the alarms and better evaluate the cost-effectiveness of surveillance systems.

Optimal periodic proof test based on cost-effective and reliability criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, J.-N.

1976-01-01

An exploratory study for the optimization of periodic proof tests for fatigue-critical structures is presented. The optimal proof load level and the optimal number of periodic proof tests are determined by minimizing the total expected (statistical average) cost, while the constraint on the allowable level of structural reliability is satisfied. The total expected cost consists of the expected cost of proof tests, the expected cost of structures destroyed by proof tests, and the expected cost of structural failure in service. It is demonstrated by numerical examples that significant cost saving and reliability improvement for fatigue-critical structures can be achieved by the application of the optimal periodic proof test. The present study is relevant to the establishment of optimal maintenance procedures for fatigue-critical structures.

Estimating the numbers of pregnant women infected with Zika virus and infants with congenital microcephaly in Colombia, 2015-2017.

PubMed

Adamski, Alys; Bertolli, Jeanne; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos; Devine, Owen J; Johansson, Michael A; Duarte, Maritza Adegnis Gonzalez; Farr, Sherry L; Tinker, Sarah C; Reyes, Marcela Maria Mercado; Tong, Van T; Garcia, Oscar Eduardo Pacheco; Valencia, Diana; Ortiz, Diego Alberto Cuellar; Honein, Margaret A; Jamieson, Denise J; Martínez, Martha Lucía Ospina; Gilboa, Suzanne M

2018-06-01

Colombia experienced a Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in 2015-2016. To assist with planning for medical and supportive services for infants affected by prenatal ZIKV infection, we used a model to estimate the number of pregnant women infected with ZIKV and the number of infants with congenital microcephaly from August 2015 to August 2017. We used nationally reported cases of symptomatic ZIKV disease among pregnant women and information from the literature on the percent of asymptomatic infections to estimate the number of pregnant women with ZIKV infection occurring August 2015-December 2016. We then estimated the number of infants with congenital microcephaly expected to occur August 2015-August 2017. To compare to the observed counts of infants with congenital microcephaly due to all causes reported through the national birth defects surveillance system, the model was time limited to produce estimates for February-November 2016. We estimated 1140-2160 (interquartile range [IQR]) infants with congenital microcephaly in Colombia, during August 2015-August 2017, whereas 340-540 infants with congenital microcephaly would be expected in the absence of ZIKV. Based on the time limited version of the model, for February-November 2016, we estimated 650-1410 infants with congenital microcephaly in Colombia. The 95% uncertainty interval for the latter estimate encompasses the 476 infants with congenital microcephaly reported during that approximate time frame based on national birth defects surveillance. Based on modeled estimates, ZIKV infection during pregnancy in Colombia could lead to 3-4 times as many infants with congenital microcephaly in 2015-2017 as would have been expected in the absence of the ZIKV outbreak. This publication was made possible through support provided by the Bureau for Global Health, U.S. Agency for International Development under the terms of an Interagency Agreement with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Deploying initial attack resources for wildfire suppression: spatial coordination, budget constraints, and capacity constraints

Treesearch

Yohan Lee; Jeremy S. Fried; Heidi J. Albers; Robert G. Haight

2013-01-01

We combine a scenario-based, standard-response optimization model with stochastic simulation to improve the efficiency of resource deployment for initial attack on wildland fires in three planning units in California. The optimization model minimizes the expected number of fires that do not receive a standard response--defined as the number of resources by type that...

Risk of cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults with autistic disorder.

PubMed

Chiang, Huey-Ling; Liu, Chia-Jen; Hu, Yu-Wen; Chen, San-Chi; Hu, Li-Yu; Shen, Cheng-Che; Yeh, Chiu-Mei; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen

2015-02-01

To investigate whether individuals with autism have an increased risk for cancer relative to the general population. We enrolled patients with autistic disorder from the Taiwan National Health Insurance database in years 1997-2011. A total of 8438 patients diagnosed with autism were retrieved from the Registry for Catastrophic Illness Patients database. The diagnosis of cancers was also based on the certificate of catastrophic illness, which requires histological confirmation. The risk of cancer among the autism cohort was determined with a standardized incidence ratio (SIR). During the observation period, cancer occurred in 20 individuals with autism, which was significantly higher than a total number of expected cancers with a SIR estimate of 1.94 (95% CI 1.18-2.99). The number of cancer in males was greater than the expected number with a SIR of 1.95 (1.11-3.16), but no excess risk was found for females with a SIR of 1.91 (0.52-4.88). Cancer developed more than expected in individuals age 15-19 years with the SIR of 3.58 (1.44-7.38), but did not differ in other age range groups. The number of cancers of genitourinary system was significantly in excess of the expected number (SIR 4.15; 95% CI 1.13-10.65), and increased risk was found in ovarian cancer with SIR of 9.21 (1.12-33.29). Our study demonstrated that patients with autistic disorder have an increased risk of cancer. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Outcomes-based Pricing Program Puts Money in Beneficiaries' Pockets.

PubMed

Silverman, Ed

2017-08-01

Harvard Pilgrim's program gives rebates to beneficiaries if Repatha doesn't help them avoid a heart attack or stroke. It's just the latest in a growing number of outcomes-based pricing agreements in which an insurer can get a discount from a drugmaker if a drug doesn't help patients as much as expected.

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance.

PubMed

Lee, Lisa A; Franzel, Lauren; Atwell, Jessica; Datta, S Deblina; Friberg, Ingrid K; Goldie, Sue J; Reef, Susan E; Schwalbe, Nina; Simons, Emily; Strebel, Peter M; Sweet, Steven; Suraratdecha, Chutima; Tam, Yvonne; Vynnycky, Emilia; Walker, Neff; Walker, Damian G; Hansen, Peter M

2013-04-18

From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Compartmental Model for Computing Cell Numbers in CFSE-based Lymphocyte Proliferation Assays

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-31

of the “expected relative Kullback - Leibler distance” ( information loss) when a model is used to describe a data set [23...deconvolution of the data into cell numbers, it cannot be used to accurately assess the number of cells in a particular generation. This information could be...notation is meant to emphasize the dependence of the estimate on the particular data set used to fit the model. It should be noted that, rather

Dynamic pricing of network goods with boundedly rational consumers.

PubMed

Radner, Roy; Radunskaya, Ami; Sundararajan, Arun

2014-01-07

We present a model of dynamic monopoly pricing for a good that displays network effects. In contrast with the standard notion of a rational-expectations equilibrium, we model consumers as boundedly rational and unable either to pay immediate attention to each price change or to make accurate forecasts of the adoption of the network good. Our analysis shows that the seller's optimal price trajectory has the following structure: The price is low when the user base is below a target level, is high when the user base is above the target, and is set to keep the user base stationary once the target level has been attained. We show that this pricing policy is robust to a number of extensions, which include the product's user base evolving over time and consumers basing their choices on a mixture of a myopic and a "stubborn" expectation of adoption. Our results differ significantly from those that would be predicted by a model based on rational-expectations equilibrium and are more consistent with the pricing of network goods observed in practice.

Dynamic pricing of network goods with boundedly rational consumers

PubMed Central

Radner, Roy; Radunskaya, Ami; Sundararajan, Arun

2014-01-01

We present a model of dynamic monopoly pricing for a good that displays network effects. In contrast with the standard notion of a rational-expectations equilibrium, we model consumers as boundedly rational and unable either to pay immediate attention to each price change or to make accurate forecasts of the adoption of the network good. Our analysis shows that the seller’s optimal price trajectory has the following structure: The price is low when the user base is below a target level, is high when the user base is above the target, and is set to keep the user base stationary once the target level has been attained. We show that this pricing policy is robust to a number of extensions, which include the product’s user base evolving over time and consumers basing their choices on a mixture of a myopic and a “stubborn” expectation of adoption. Our results differ significantly from those that would be predicted by a model based on rational-expectations equilibrium and are more consistent with the pricing of network goods observed in practice. PMID:24367101

Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: Application to influenza vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breban, Romulus; Vardavas, Raffaele; Blower, Sally

2007-09-01

Recently we have introduced an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. Here, we analyze our model to describe the dynamics of the collective yearly vaccination uptake. We discuss the mean-field equations of our model and first order effects of fluctuations. We explain why our model predicts that severe epidemics are periodically expected even without the introduction of pandemic strains. We find that fluctuations in the collective yearly vaccination uptake induce severe epidemics with an expected periodicity that depends on the number of independent decision makers in the population. The mean-field dynamics also reveal that there are conditions for which the dynamics become robust to the fluctuations. However, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics occurs for biologically implausible parameters. We also analyze our model when incentive-based vaccination programs are offered. When a family-based incentive is offered, the expected periodicity of severe epidemics is increased. This results from the fact that the number of independent decision makers is reduced, increasing the effect of the fluctuations. However, incentives based on the number of years of prepayment of vaccination may yield fluctuation-robust dynamics where severe epidemics are prevented. In this case, depending on prepayment, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics may occur for biologically plausible parameters. Our analysis provides a practical method for identifying how many years of free vaccination should be provided in order to successfully ameliorate influenza epidemics.

Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: application to influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Breban, Romulus; Vardavas, Raffaele; Blower, Sally

2007-09-01

Recently we have introduced an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. Here, we analyze our model to describe the dynamics of the collective yearly vaccination uptake. We discuss the mean-field equations of our model and first order effects of fluctuations. We explain why our model predicts that severe epidemics are periodically expected even without the introduction of pandemic strains. We find that fluctuations in the collective yearly vaccination uptake induce severe epidemics with an expected periodicity that depends on the number of independent decision makers in the population. The mean-field dynamics also reveal that there are conditions for which the dynamics become robust to the fluctuations. However, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics occurs for biologically implausible parameters. We also analyze our model when incentive-based vaccination programs are offered. When a family-based incentive is offered, the expected periodicity of severe epidemics is increased. This results from the fact that the number of independent decision makers is reduced, increasing the effect of the fluctuations. However, incentives based on the number of years of prepayment of vaccination may yield fluctuation-robust dynamics where severe epidemics are prevented. In this case, depending on prepayment, the transition between fluctuation-sensitive and fluctuation-robust dynamics may occur for biologically plausible parameters. Our analysis provides a practical method for identifying how many years of free vaccination should be provided in order to successfully ameliorate influenza epidemics.

Gray matter volume correlates of global positive alcohol expectancy in non-dependent adult drinkers

PubMed Central

Ide, Jaime S.; Zhang, Sheng; Hu, Sien; Matuskey, David; Bednarski, Sarah R.; Erdman, Emily; Farr, Olivia M.; Li, Chiang-shan R.

2013-01-01

Alcohol use and misuse is known to involve structural brain changes. Numerous imaging studies have examined changes in gray matter (GM) volumes in dependent drinkers, but there is little information on whether non-dependent drinking is associated with structural changes and whether these changes are related to psychological factors – such as alcohol expectancy – that influence drinking behavior. We used voxel based morphometry (VBM) to examine whether the global positive scale of alcohol expectancy, as measured by the Alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire AEQ-3, is associated with specific structural markers and whether such markers are associated with drinking behavior in 113 adult non-dependent drinkers (66 women). Alcohol expectancy is positively correlated with GM volume of left precentrral gyrus (PCG) in men and women combined and bilateral superior frontal gyri (SFG) in women, and negatively correlated with GM volume of the right ventral putamen in men. Furthermore, mediation analyses showed that the GM volume of PCG mediate the correlation of alcohol expectancy and the average number of drinks consumed per occasion and monthly total number of drinks in the past year. When recent drinking was directly accounted for in multiple regressions, GM volume of bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortices (DLPFC) correlated positively with alcohol expectancy in the combined sample. To our knowledge, these results are the first to identify the structural brain correlates of alcohol expectancy and its mediation of drinking behaviors. These findings suggest that more studies are needed to investigate increased GM volume in the frontal cortices as a neural correlate of alcohol expectancy. PMID:23461484

Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

PubMed Central

Öttl, Anton; Behne, Dawn M.

2017-01-01

The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors), participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress. PMID:28936186

The differential effects of full-time and part-time work status on breastfeeding.

PubMed

Mandal, Bidisha; Roe, Brian Eric; Fein, Sara Beck

2010-09-01

Return to work is associated with diminished breastfeeding. Although more mothers breastfeed after returning to work compared to a decade ago, research has not documented the variations in breastfeeding initiation and duration based on full-time and part-time (less than 35h/week) work status. In this study, we clarify these differences. Longitudinal data from the Infant Feeding Practices Study II, collected between 2005 and 2007, for over 1400 mothers are used. In analyzing initiation, mother's work status was categorized by the expected number of hours she planned to work postpartum. In the duration model, work status was categorized based on the actual number of hours worked upon mother's return to employment after controlling for baby's age when she returned to work. Covariates in logistic and censored regressions included demographics, maternity leave, parity, past breastfeeding experience, hospital experience, and social support. Compared with expecting not to work, expecting to work <35h/week was not associated with breastfeeding initiation while expecting to work full-time decreased breastfeeding initiation. Compared with breastfeeding mothers who did not work, returning to work within 12 weeks regardless of work status and returning to work after 12 weeks while working more than 34h/week were associated with significantly shorter breastfeeding duration. Part-time work and increased amount of leave taken promote breastfeeding initiation and duration.

Estimation and application of a growth and yield model for uneven-aged mixed conifer stands in California.

Treesearch

Jingjing Liang; J. Buongiorno; R.A. Monserud

2005-01-01

A growth model for uneven-aged mixed-conifer stands in California was developed with data from 205 permanent plots. The model predicts the number of softwood and hardwood trees in nineteen diameter classes, based on equations for diameter growth rates, mortality arid recruitment. The model gave unbiased predictions of the expected number of trees by diameter class and...

The dimensional salience solution to the expectancy-value muddle: an extension.

PubMed

Newton, Joshua D; Newton, Fiona J; Ewing, Michael T

2014-01-01

The theory of reasoned action (TRA) specifies a set of expectancy-value, belief-based frameworks that underpin attitude (behavioural beliefs × outcome evaluations) and subjective norm (normative beliefs × motivation to comply). Unfortunately, the most common method for analysing these frameworks generates statistically uninterpretable findings, resulting in what has been termed the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Recently, however, a dimensional salience approach was found to resolve this muddle for the belief-based framework underpinning attitude. An online survey of 262 participants was therefore conducted to determine whether the dimensional salience approach could also be applied to the belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm. Results revealed that motivations to comply were greater for salient, as opposed to non-salient, social referents. The belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm was therefore represented by evaluating normative belief ratings for salient social referents. This modified framework was found to predict subjective norm, although predictions were greater when participants were forced to select five salient social referents rather than being free to select any number of social referents. These findings validate the use of the dimensional salience approach for examining the belief-based frameworks underpinning subjective norm. As such, this approach provides a complete solution to addressing the expectancy-value muddle in the TRA.

Assessment and Intervention for English Language Learners with Primary Language Impairment: Research-Based Best Practices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pieretti, Robert A.; Roseberry-McKibbin, Celeste

2016-01-01

Speech-language pathologists (SLPs) are experiencing the exciting challenge of serving increasing numbers of English Language Learners (ELLs) in U.S. schools. When ELLs struggle in school, they may be overreferred for speech-language services. SLPs are routinely expected to differentiate a language difference based on cultural, linguistic, and…

Optimising Inter-Disciplinary Problem-Based Learning in Postgraduate Environmental and Science Education: Recommendations from a Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redshaw, Clare H; Frampton, Ian

2014-01-01

As the value of multi-disciplinary working in the business and research worlds is becoming more recognised, the number of inter-disciplinary postgraduate environmental and health sciences courses is also increasing. Equally, the popularity of problem-based learning (PBL) is expected to grow and influence instructional approaches in many…

The BepiColombo Laser Altimeter (BELA): Scientific Performance at Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussmann, H.; Steinbrügge, G.; Stark, A.; Oberst, J.; Thomas, N.; Lara, L.-M.

2018-05-01

We discuss the expected scientific performance of BELA in Mercury orbit. Based on a performance model, we present the measurement accuracy of global and local topography, surface slopes and roughness, as well as the tidal Love number h2.

Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Altai-Sayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2017-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.

Comprehensive Reactive Receiver Modeling for Diffusive Molecular Communication Systems: Reversible Binding, Molecule Degradation, and Finite Number of Receptors.

PubMed

Ahmadzadeh, Arman; Arjmandi, Hamidreza; Burkovski, Andreas; Schober, Robert

2016-10-01

This paper studies the problem of receiver modeling in molecular communication systems. We consider the diffusive molecular communication channel between a transmitter nano-machine and a receiver nano-machine in a fluid environment. The information molecules released by the transmitter nano-machine into the environment can degrade in the channel via a first-order degradation reaction and those that reach the receiver nano-machine can participate in a reversible bimolecular reaction with receiver receptor proteins. Thereby, we distinguish between two scenarios. In the first scenario, we assume that the entire surface of the receiver is covered by receptor molecules. We derive a closed-form analytical expression for the expected received signal at the receiver, i.e., the expected number of activated receptors on the surface of the receiver. Then, in the second scenario, we consider the case where the number of receptor molecules is finite and the uniformly distributed receptor molecules cover the receiver surface only partially. We show that the expected received signal for this scenario can be accurately approximated by the expected received signal for the first scenario after appropriately modifying the forward reaction rate constant. The accuracy of the derived analytical results is verified by Brownian motion particle-based simulations of the considered environment, where we also show the impact of the effect of receptor occupancy on the derived analytical results.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

2018-05-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10 N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10 L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.

Unemployment levels after the global financial crisis linked to increase in suicides.

PubMed

2013-10-23

The 2008 global economic crisis appears to have triggered an increase in suicides, particularly among men in Europe and America. To investigate the impact of the economic crisis on international trends in suicide, researchers conducted an analysis comparing the number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would have been expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-2007). The analysis included data from 54 countries.

Prevalence and characteristics of prisoners requiring end-of-life care: A prospective national survey

PubMed Central

Pazart, Lionel; Godard-Marceau, Aurélie; Chassagne, Aline; Vivot-Pugin, Aurore; Cretin, Elodie; Amzallag, Edouard; Aubry, Regis

2017-01-01

Background: Ensuring adequate end-of-life care for prisoners is a critical issue. In France, data investigating the impact of laws allowing release of seriously ill prisoners are lacking. Aim: To assess the number and characteristics of prisoners requiring palliative care in French prisons. Design: A prospective, national survey collecting data over a 3-month period. Setting/participants: All healthcare units (n = 190) providing care for prisoners in France. The prison population was 66,698 during the study period. Data collection concerned prisoners requiring end-of-life care, that is, with serious, advanced, progressive, or terminal illness and life expectancy <1 year. Results: Estimated annual prevalence of ill prisoners requiring end-of-life care was 15.2 (confidence interval: 12.5–18.3) per 10,000 prisoners. The observed number of prisoners requiring palliative care (n = 50) was twice as high as the expected age- and sex-standardized number based on the general population and similar to the expected number among persons 10 years older in the free community. In all, 41 of 44 (93%) of identified ill prisoners were eligible for temporary or permanent compassionate release, according to their practitioner. Only 33 of 48 (68%) of ill prisoners requested suspension or reduction in their sentence on medical grounds; half (16/33) received a positive answer. Conclusion: The proportion of prisoners requiring palliative care is higher than expected in the general population. The general frailty and co-existing conditions of prisoners before incarceration and the acceleration of these phenomena in prison could explain this increase in end-of-life situations among prisoners. PMID:28786339

Cost-effectiveness of breech version by acupuncture-type interventions on BL 67, including moxibustion, for women with a breech foetus at 33 weeks gestation: a modelling approach.

PubMed

van den Berg, Ineke; Kaandorp, Guido C; Bosch, Johanna L; Duvekot, Johannes J; Arends, Lidia R; Hunink, M G Myriam

2010-04-01

To assess, using a modelling approach, the effectiveness and costs of breech version with acupuncture-type interventions on BL67 (BVA-T), including moxibustion, compared to expectant management for women with a foetal breech presentation at 33 weeks gestation. A decision tree was developed to predict the number of caesarean sections prevented by BVA-T compared to expectant management to rectify breech presentation. The model accounted for external cephalic versions (ECV), treatment compliance, and costs for 10,000 simulated breech presentations at 33 weeks gestational age. Event rates were taken from Dutch population data and the international literature, and the relative effectiveness of BVA-T was based on a specific meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the results. We calculated percentages of breech presentations at term, caesarean sections, and costs from the third-party payer perspective. Odds ratios (OR) and cost differences of BVA-T versus expectant management were calculated. (Probabilistic) sensitivity analysis and expected value of perfect information analysis were performed. The simulated outcomes demonstrated 32% breech presentations after BVA-T versus 53% with expectant management (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.43, 0.83). The percentage caesarean section was 37% after BVA-T versus 50% with expectant management (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59, 0.88). The mean cost-savings per woman was euro 451 (95% CI euro 109, euro 775; p=0.005) using moxibustion. Sensitivity analysis showed that if 16% or more of women offered moxibustion complied, it was more effective and less costly than expectant management. To prevent one caesarean section, 7 women had to use BVA-T. The expected value of perfect information from further research was euro0.32 per woman. The results suggest that offering BVA-T to women with a breech foetus at 33 weeks gestation reduces the number of breech presentations at term, thus reducing the number of caesarean sections, and is cost-effective compared to expectant management, including external cephalic version. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of Dengue for Tourists and Teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil

PubMed Central

van Panhuis, Willem G.; Hyun, Sangwon; Blaney, Kayleigh; Marques, Ernesto T. A.; Coelho, Giovanini E.; Siqueira, João Bosco; Tibshirani, Ryan; da Silva, Jarbas B.; Rosenfeld, Roni

2014-01-01

Abstract Background This year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country. Methodology/Principal Findings We used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001–2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10th–100th percentile: 5–334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30–77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively). Conclusion/Significance The risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events. PMID:25079960

Patient/parent expectations of orthodontic treatment.

PubMed

Obilade, Omolara Abiodun; da Costa, Oluranti Olatokunbo; Sanu, Oluwatosin Oluyemi

2017-03-01

Expectations of orthodontic treatment may differ between the patient and their parents, as the parents' expectations may not reflect those of the child. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine the expectations of patients and their parents. This was a clinic-based, comparative, cross-sectional study involving 110 patients aged between 10 and 19 years, as well as their accompanying parents or guardians. The expectations of both patients and parents were determined using a questionnaire developed by Sayers and Newton. Results showed that the expectations of the patients and parents differed significantly in a number of areas with the parents' expectations often exceeding those of the patients. Both patients and parents were found to be ignorant about some aspects of orthodontic treatment, with 47.3% of patients and 39.1% of parents unaware of the duration of orthodontic treatment and, as such, requiring information from their clinicians. The results highlight the importance of patient education and counseling as well as the need to focus on the individual patient and not assume that their expectations mirror those of the accompanying parent. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-09-17

To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Design Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Setting Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. Population People aged 15 or above. Main outcome measures Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. Results There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman’s rs=0.48). Conclusions After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss. PMID:24046155

Differences between genomic-based and pedigree-based relationships in a chicken population, as a function of quality control and pedigree links among individuals.

PubMed

Wang, H; Misztal, I; Legarra, A

2014-12-01

This work studied differences between expected (calculated from pedigree) and realized (genomic, from markers) relationships in a real population, the influence of quality control on these differences, and their fit to current theory. Data included 4940 pure line chickens across five generations genotyped for 57,636 SNP. Pedigrees (5762 animals) were available for the five generations, pedigree starting on the first one. Three levels of quality control were used. With no quality control, mean difference between realized and expected relationships for different type of relationships was ≤ 0.04 with standard deviation ≤ 0.10. With strong quality control (call rate ≥ 0.9, parent-progeny conflicts, minor allele frequency and use of only autosomal chromosomes), these numbers reduced to ≤ 0.02 and ≤ 0.04, respectively. While the maximum difference was 1.02 with the complete data, it was only 0.18 with the latest three generations of genotypes (but including all pedigrees). Variation of expected minus realized relationships agreed with theoretical developments and suggests an effective number of loci of 70 for this population. When the pedigree is complete and as deep as the genotypes, the standard deviation of difference between the expected and realized relationships is around 0.04, all categories confounded. Standard deviation of differences larger than 0.10 suggests bad quality control, mistakes in pedigree recording or genotype labelling, or insufficient depth of pedigree. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Calibration of the inertial consistency index to assess road safety on horizontal curves of two-lane rural roads.

PubMed

Llopis-Castelló, David; Camacho-Torregrosa, Francisco Javier; García, Alfredo

2018-05-26

One of every four road fatalities occurs on horizontal curves of two-lane rural roads. To this regard, many studies have been undertaken to analyze the crash risk on this road element. Most of them were based on the concept of geometric design consistency, which can be defined as how drivers' expectancies and road behavior relate. However, none of these studies included a variable which represents and estimates drivers' expectancies. This research presents a new local consistency model based on the Inertial Consistency Index (ICI). This consistency parameter is defined as the difference between the inertial operating speed, which represents drivers' expectations, and the operating speed, which represents road behavior. The inertial operating speed was defined as the weighted average operating speed of the preceding road section. In this way, different lengths, periods of time, and weighting distributions were studied to identify how the inertial operating speed should be calculated. As a result, drivers' expectancies should be estimated considering 15 s along the segment and a linear weighting distribution. This was consistent with drivers' expectancies acquirement process, which is closely related to Short-Term Memory. A Safety Performance Function was proposed to predict the number of crashes on a horizontal curve and consistency thresholds were defined based on the ICI. To this regard, the crash rate increased as the ICI increased. Finally, the proposed consistency model was compared with previous models. As a conclusion, the new Inertial Consistency Index allowed a more accurate estimation of the number of crashes and a better assessment of the consistency level on horizontal curves. Therefore, highway engineers have a new tool to identify where road crashes are more likely to occur during the design stage of both new two-lane rural roads and improvements of existing highways. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

48 CFR 22.1012-2 - Wage determinations based on collective bargaining agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... expected. (The telephone number is provided on the e98 website.) If the Department of Labor is unable to... bargaining agreement created by use of the WDOL website (see 22.1008-2(d)(2)). [71 FR 36935, June 28, 2006] ...

48 CFR 22.1012-2 - Wage determinations based on collective bargaining agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... expected. (The telephone number is provided on the e98 website.) If the Department of Labor is unable to... bargaining agreement created by use of the WDOL website (see 22.1008-2(d)(2)). [71 FR 36935, June 28, 2006] ...

48 CFR 22.1012-2 - Wage determinations based on collective bargaining agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... expected. (The telephone number is provided on the e98 website.) If the Department of Labor is unable to... bargaining agreement created by use of the WDOL website (see 22.1008-2(d)(2)). [71 FR 36935, June 28, 2006] ...

Visual attention distracter insertion for improved EEG rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) target stimuli detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosla, Deepak; Huber, David J.; Martin, Kevin

2017-05-01

This paper† describes a technique in which we improve upon the prior performance of the Rapid Serial Visual Presentation (RSVP) EEG paradigm for image classification though the insertion of visual attention distracters and overall sequence reordering based upon the expected ratio of rare to common "events" in the environment and operational context. Inserting distracter images maintains the ratio of common events to rare events at an ideal level, maximizing the rare event detection via P300 EEG response to the RSVP stimuli. The method has two steps: first, we compute the optimal number of distracters needed for an RSVP stimuli based on the desired sequence length and expected number of targets and insert the distracters into the RSVP sequence, and then we reorder the RSVP sequence to maximize P300 detection. We show that by reducing the ratio of target events to nontarget events using this method, we can allow RSVP sequences with more targets without sacrificing area under the ROC curve (azimuth).

Post—September 11, 2001, Incidence of Systemic Autoimmune Diseases in World Trade Center—Exposed Firefighters and Emergency Medical Service Workers

PubMed Central

Webber, Mayris P.; Moir, William; Crowson, Cynthia S.; Cohen, Hillel W.; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Hall, Charles B.; Berman, Jessica; Qayyum, Basit; Jaber, Nadia; Matteson, Eric L.; Liu, Yang; Kelly, Kerry; Prezant, David J.

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate the incidence of selected systemic autoimmune diseases (SAIDs) in approximately 14,000 male rescue/recovery workers enrolled in the Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY) World Trade Center (WTC) Health Program and to compare FDNY incidence to rates from demographically similar men in the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), a population-based database in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients and Methods We calculated incidence for specific SAIDs (rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and others) and combined SAIDs diagnosed from September 12, 2001, through September 11, 2014, and generated expected sex- and age-specific rates based on REP rates. Rates were stratified by level of WTC exposure (higher vs lower). Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), which are the ratios of the observed number of cases in the FDNY group to the expected number of cases based on REP rates, and 95% CIs were calculated. Results We identified 97 SAID cases. Overall, FDNY rates were not significantly different from expected rates (SIR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.77–1.21). However, the lower WTC exposure group had 9.9 fewer cases than expected, whereas the higher WTC exposure group had 7.7 excess cases. Conclusion Most studies indicate that the healthy worker effect reduces the association between exposure and outcome by about 20%, which we observed in the lower WTC exposure group. Overall rates masked differences in incidence by level of WTC exposure, especially because the higher WTC exposure group was relatively small. Continued surveillance for early detection of SAIDs in high WTC exposure populations is required to identify and treat exposure-related adverse effects. PMID:26682920

Post-September 11, 2001, Incidence of Systemic Autoimmune Diseases in World Trade Center-Exposed Firefighters and Emergency Medical Service Workers.

PubMed

Webber, Mayris P; Moir, William; Crowson, Cynthia S; Cohen, Hillel W; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Hall, Charles B; Berman, Jessica; Qayyum, Basit; Jaber, Nadia; Matteson, Eric L; Liu, Yang; Kelly, Kerry; Prezant, David J

2016-01-01

To estimate the incidence of selected systemic autoimmune diseases (SAIDs) in approximately 14,000 male rescue/recovery workers enrolled in the Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY) World Trade Center (WTC) Health Program and to compare FDNY incidence to rates from demographically similar men in the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), a population-based database in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We calculated incidence for specific SAIDs (rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and others) and combined SAIDs diagnosed from September 12, 2001, through September 11, 2014, and generated expected sex- and age-specific rates based on REP rates. Rates were stratified by level of WTC exposure (higher vs lower). Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), which are the ratios of the observed number of cases in the FDNY group to the expected number of cases based on REP rates, and 95% CIs were calculated. We identified 97 SAID cases. Overall, FDNY rates were not significantly different from expected rates (SIR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.77-1.21). However, the lower WTC exposure group had 9.9 fewer cases than expected, whereas the higher WTC exposure group had 7.7 excess cases. Most studies indicate that the healthy worker effect reduces the association between exposure and outcome by about 20%, which we observed in the lower WTC exposure group. Overall rates masked differences in incidence by level of WTC exposure, especially because the higher WTC exposure group was relatively small. Continued surveillance for early detection of SAIDs in high WTC exposure populations is required to identify and treat exposure-related adverse effects. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Linear canonical transformations of coherent and squeezed states in the Wigner phase space. II - Quantitative analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, D.; Kim, Y. S.; Noz, Marilyn E.

1989-01-01

It is possible to calculate expectation values and transition probabilities from the Wigner phase-space distribution function. Based on the canonical transformation properties of the Wigner function, an algorithm is developed for calculating these quantities in quantum optics for coherent and squeezed states. It is shown that the expectation value of a dynamical variable can be written in terms of its vacuum expectation value of the canonically transformed variable. Parallel-axis theorems are established for the photon number and its variant. It is also shown that the transition probability between two squeezed states can be reduced to that of the transition from one squeezed state to vacuum.

Determinants of use and non-use of a web-based communication system in cerebral palsy care: evaluating the association between professionals' system use and their a priori expectancies and background

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Previously we described parents' and professionals' experiences with a web-based communication system in a 6-month pilot in three Dutch cerebral palsy care settings. We found that half of the participating professionals had not used the system, and of those who had used the system one third had used it only once. The present study aimed to evaluate whether professionals' system use was associated with their a priori expectancies and background. Methods Professionals who had not used the system (n = 54) were compared with professionals who had used the system more than once (n = 46) on the basis of their questionnaire responses before the pilot, their affiliation and the number of patients which they represented in the study. The questionnaire items comprised professionals' expectancies regarding the system's performance and ease of use, as well as the expected time availability and integration into daily care practice. Results Overall, users had higher a priori expectancies than non-users. System use was associated with expected ease of use (p = .046) and time availability (p = .005): 50% of the users (vs. 31% of the non-users) expected that the system would be easy to use and 93% of the users (vs. 72% of the non-users) expected that they would be able to reserve a time slot each week for responding to submitted questions. With respect to professionals' affiliation, system use was associated with professionals' institution (p = .003) and discipline (p = .001), with more (para-) medical professionals among users (93% vs. 63% among non-users), and more education professionals among non-users (37% vs. 7% among users). In addition, users represented more patients (mean 2, range 1-8) than non-users (mean 1.1, range 1-2) (p = .000). Conclusions Professionals' system use was associated with expected ease of use and time availability, professionals' affiliation and the number of represented patients, while no association was found with expected performance of the system. To achieve higher adoption rates in the future, it is important to further develop the technology by optimizing the system's ease of use and interoperability and including advanced consultation options. In addition, better identified end users should be more extensively informed about the system's possibilities through tailored education. PMID:21682911

Operational Earthquake Forecasting of Aftershocks for New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebel, J.; Fadugba, O. I.

2015-12-01

Although the forecasting of mainshocks is not possible, recent research demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts of expected aftershock activity following moderate and strong earthquakes is possible. Previous work has shown that aftershock sequences in intraplate regions behave similarly to those in California, and thus the operational aftershocks forecasting methods that are currently employed in California can be adopted for use in areas of the eastern U.S. such as New England. In our application, immediately after a felt earthquake in New England, a forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be generated based on a generic aftershock activity model. Approximately 24 hours after the mainshock, the parameters of the aftershock model will be updated using the observed aftershock activity observed to that point in time, and a new forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be issued. The forecast will estimate the average number of weak, felt aftershocks and the average expected number of aftershocks based on the aftershock statistics of past New England earthquakes. The forecast also will estimate the probability that an earthquake that is stronger than the mainshock will take place during the next 7 days. The aftershock forecast will specify the expected aftershocks locations as well as the areas over which aftershocks of different magnitudes could be felt. The system will use web pages, email and text messages to distribute the aftershock forecasts. For protracted aftershock sequences, new forecasts will be issued on a regular basis, such as weekly. Initially, the distribution system of the aftershock forecasts will be limited, but later it will be expanded as experience with and confidence in the system grows.

Area variations in multiple morbidity using a life table methodology.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

Analysis of healthy life expectancy is typically based on a binary distinction between health and ill-health. By contrast, this paper considers spatial modelling of disease free life expectancy taking account of the number of chronic conditions. Thus the analysis is based on population sub-groups with no disease, those with one disease only, and those with two or more diseases (multiple morbidity). Data on health status is accordingly modelled using a multinomial likelihood. The analysis uses data for 258 small areas in north London, and shows wide differences in the disease burden related to multiple morbidity. Strong associations between area socioeconomic deprivation and multiple morbidity are demonstrated, as well as strong spatial clustering.

Simple and Hierarchical Models for Stochastic Test Misgrading.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Jianjun

1993-01-01

Test misgrading is treated as a stochastic process. The expected number of misgradings, inter-occurrence time of misgradings, and waiting time for the "n"th misgrading are discussed based on a simple Poisson model and a hierarchical Beta-Poisson model. Examples of model construction are given. (SLD)

Family Size Preferences in Europe and USA: Ultimate Expected Number of Children. Comparative Studies Number 26: ECE Analyses of Surveys in Europe and USA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berent, Jerzy

This survey analysis compares fertility levels in the United States and European countries, discusses socioeconomic influences in ultimate expected family size, and examines birth rate trends. The average number of ultimately expected children varies from 2.13 children per woman in Bulgaria to 2.80 in Spain. Eighty to 90 percent of U.S. and…

Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Bleibler, Florian; Rapp, Kilian; Jaensch, Andrea; Becker, Clemens; König, Hans-Helmut

2014-06-30

Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany. A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to € 4,479 (€ 1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital € 1,743 (€ 751) and long-term care sectors € 1,210 (€ 620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€ 7,463 vs. € 2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture. The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures.

Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany. Methods A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to €4,479 (€1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital €1,743 (€751) and long-term care sectors €1,210 (€620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€7,463 vs. €2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture. Conclusion The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures. PMID:24981316

Repetition of educational AIDS advertising affects attitudes.

PubMed

Schindler, Simon; Reinhard, Marc-André; Stahlberg, Dagmar

2011-06-01

In educational AIDS campaigns, initiators often use advertisements to warn about the threat of AIDS. The present Internet study (N = 283) tested the assumption of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the number of educational AIDS advertisements in a magazine and the perceived threat of AIDS among different groups (i.e., homosexual men and heterosexual men and women). This expectation was primarily based on signaling theory, which assumes that recipients use repetition frequency as a cue for judgments about the message. Results provided support for the expected inverted U-curve.

Interim Radiological Scoping and Characterization Survey Report, 1963 Igloo 572 Accident (Former Medina Base), Lackland Training Annex, Lackland AFB, Texas

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

9045 4 8985 4 9001 5 8804 5 8893 Mean: 8788.8 Mean: 8925.4 Expected S.D.: 93.7 Expected S.D.: 94.5 Standard Dev.: 136.9 Standard Dev.: 107.4 Variance...subject to lit]) severe criminal penalties. Dissemination in 200204 5 042accordance with DoD Directive 5230.25" Air Force Institute for Environment...COVERED March 2002 INTERIM (2001 - 2002) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5 . FUNDING NUMBERS Interim Radiological Scoping and Characterization Survey Report, 1963

Clinical and economic benefit of enzymatic debridement of pressure ulcers compared to autolytic debridement with a hydrogel dressing.

PubMed

Waycaster, Curtis; Milne, Catherine T

2013-07-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of enzymatic debridement using collagenase relative to autolytic debridement with a hydrogel dressing for the treatment of pressure ulcers. A 3-stage Markov model was used to determine the expected costs and outcomes of wound care for collagenase and hydrogel dressings. Outcome data used in the analysis were taken from a randomized clinical trial that directly compared collagenase and hydrogel dressings. The primary outcome in the clinical trial was the proportion of patients achieving a closed epithelialized wound. Transition probabilities for the Markov states were estimated from the clinical trial. A 1-year time horizon was used to determine the expected number of closed wound days and the expected costs for the two alternative debridement therapies. Resource utilization was based on the wound care treatment regimen used in the clinical trial. Resource costs were derived from standard cost references and medical supply wholesalers. The economic perspective taken was that of the long-term care facility. No cost discounting was performed due to the short time horizon of the analysis. A deterministic sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze economic uncertainty. The number of expected wound days for the collagenase and hydrogel cohorts are estimated at 48 and 147, respectively. The expected direct cost per patient for pressure ulcer care was $2003 for collagenase and $5480 for hydrogel debridement. The number of closed wound days was 1.5-times higher for collagenase (317 vs 218 days) than with the hydrogel. The estimated cost/closed wound day was 4-times higher for the hydrogel ($25) vs collagenase ($6). In this Markov model based on a randomized trial of pressure ulcer care in a long-term care setting collagenase debridement was economically dominant over autolytic debridement, yielding better outcomes at a lower total cost. Since it was a single institution study with a small sample size, the results should be interpreted with caution. Specifically, the findings may not necessarily be generalized to other hydrogel dressings, healthcare settings, age groups, or to wounds of other etiologies.

A space-time scan statistic for detecting emerging outbreaks.

PubMed

Tango, Toshiro; Takahashi, Kunihiko; Kohriyama, Kazuaki

2011-03-01

As a major analytical method for outbreak detection, Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic (2001, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 164, 61-72) has been implemented in many syndromic surveillance systems. Since, however, it is based on circular windows in space, it has difficulty correctly detecting actual noncircular clusters. Takahashi et al. (2008, International Journal of Health Geographics 7, 14) proposed a flexible space-time scan statistic with the capability of detecting noncircular areas. It seems to us, however, that the detection of the most likely cluster defined in these space-time scan statistics is not the same as the detection of localized emerging disease outbreaks because the former compares the observed number of cases with the conditional expected number of cases. In this article, we propose a new space-time scan statistic which compares the observed number of cases with the unconditional expected number of cases, takes a time-to-time variation of Poisson mean into account, and implements an outbreak model to capture localized emerging disease outbreaks more timely and correctly. The proposed models are illustrated with data from weekly surveillance of the number of absentees in primary schools in Kitakyushu-shi, Japan, 2006. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

An Unexpected Expected Value.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartzman, Steven

1993-01-01

Discusses the surprising result that the expected number of marbles of one color drawn from a set of marbles of two colors after two draws without replacement is the same as the expected number of that color marble after two draws with replacement. Presents mathematical models to help explain this phenomenon. (MDH)

Syndromic surveillance system based on near real-time cattle mortality monitoring.

PubMed

Torres, G; Ciaravino, V; Ascaso, S; Flores, V; Romero, L; Simón, F

2015-05-01

Early detection of an infectious disease incursion will minimize the impact of outbreaks in livestock. Syndromic surveillance based on the analysis of readily available data can enhance traditional surveillance systems and allow veterinary authorities to react in a timely manner. This study was based on monitoring the number of cattle carcasses sent for rendering in the veterinary unit of Talavera de la Reina (Spain). The aim was to develop a system to detect deviations from expected values which would signal unexpected health events. Historical weekly collected dead cattle (WCDC) time series stabilized by the Box-Cox transformation and adjusted by the minimum least squares method were used to build the univariate cycling regression model based on a Fourier transformation. Three different models, according to type of production system, were built to estimate the baseline expected number of WCDC. Two types of risk signals were generated: point risk signals when the observed value was greater than the upper 95% confidence interval of the expected baseline, and cumulative risk signals, generated by a modified cumulative sum algorithm, when the cumulative sums of reported deaths were above the cumulative sum of expected deaths. Data from 2011 were used to prospectively validate the model generating seven risk signals. None of them were correlated to infectious disease events but some coincided, in time, with very high climatic temperatures recorded in the region. The harvest effect was also observed during the first week of the study year. Establishing appropriate risk signal thresholds is a limiting factor of predictive models; it needs to be adjusted based on experience gained during the use of the models. To increase the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions epidemiological interpretation of non-specific risk signals should be complemented by other sources of information. The methodology developed in this study can enhance other existing early detection surveillance systems. Syndromic surveillance based on mortality monitoring can reduce the detection time for certain disease outbreaks associated with mild mortality only detected at regional level. The methodology can be adapted to monitor other parameters routinely collected at farm level which can be influenced by communicable diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Medical Surveillance Monthly Report. Volume 20, Number 5

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-01

a diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Although only pulmonary TB is reportable in the U.S. military,14 extra- pulmonary cases were...I G U R E 1 . Numbers of cases and rates of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), active component, U.S. Armed Forces, and expected age-adjusted rates of... pulmonary tuberculosis in the general U.S. population, based on U.S. military population standard, 1998-2012a aData not available from the CDC in 2012

[Total knee arthroplasty in 2014 : Results, expectations, and complications].

PubMed

Matziolis, G; Röhner, E

2015-04-01

Aseptic loosening seems to have become a minor problem in total knee arthroplasty. In contrast to that, new challenges are defined by changing patients' expectations. Beside reduction of pain and improving mobility, modern implants should not be noticed as such and should not limit sports activities. In this paper, a summary of the development and the current situation of total knee arthroplasty (e.g., implantation numbers, hospitality, operation time, and infection rates) are provided. The data are compared in an international context. In addition, current trends and developments from recent years are shown and rated according to the literature. The paper is based on a literature search (PubMed) and analyses of published official statistical data and expert recommendations. Implantation numbers have been declining gradually in Germany since 2009. In 2013, 127,077 total knee arthroplasties were implanted. In contrast, the number of revision operations has increased gradually during the last decade. In addition, hospital stay and operation time have declined. The development of implants, instruments, and operation techniques results from changing patients' expectations. All innovations must be compared against the results of well-proven techniques. The arthroplasty register may be an instrument to evaluate the results of new techniques and implants in a broad clinical application in terms of survival.

On the Reproduction Number of a Gut Microbiota Model.

PubMed

Barril, Carles; Calsina, Àngel; Ripoll, Jordi

2017-11-01

A spatially structured linear model of the growth of intestinal bacteria is analysed from two generational viewpoints. Firstly, the basic reproduction number associated with the bacterial population, i.e. the expected number of daughter cells per bacterium, is given explicitly in terms of biological parameters. Secondly, an alternative quantity is introduced based on the number of bacteria produced within the intestine by one bacterium originally in the external media. The latter depends on the parameters in a simpler way and provides more biological insight than the standard reproduction number, allowing the design of experimental procedures. Both quantities coincide and are equal to one at the extinction threshold, below which the bacterial population becomes extinct. Optimal values of both reproduction numbers are derived assuming parameter trade-offs.

Author fees for online publication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Like the journals themselves, AGU publication fees have been restructured to accommodate the new online, publish-as-ready approach. The new fee structure is based on authors' providing electronic files of their text and art in acceptable formats (Word, WordPerfect, and LaTeX for text, and .eps or .tif for digital art). However, if you are unable to supply electronic files, you can opt for a higher-charge, full-service route in which AGU will create electronic files from hard copy. All authors for AGU journals are expected to support the journal archive through fees based on number as well as size of article files. The revenue from these fees is set aside for the "Perpetual Care Trust Fund," which will support the migration of the journal archive to new formats or media as technology changes. For several journals, excess length fees remain in place to encourage submission of concisely written articles. During this first transition year, most author fees are based on the number of print page equivalents (pdf) in an article; in the future, however, charges are expected to be associated with file size. The specific fees for each journal are posted on AGU's Web site under Publications-Tools for Authors.

Characterizing and reducing equifinality by constraining a distributed catchment model with regional signatures, local observations, and process understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, Christa; McGlynn, Brian; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-07-01

Distributed catchment models are widely used tools for predicting hydrologic behavior. While distributed models require many parameters to describe a system, they are expected to simulate behavior that is more consistent with observed processes. However, obtaining a single set of acceptable parameters can be problematic, as parameter equifinality often results in several behavioral sets that fit observations (typically streamflow). In this study, we investigate the extent to which equifinality impacts a typical distributed modeling application. We outline a hierarchical approach to reduce the number of behavioral sets based on regional, observation-driven, and expert-knowledge-based constraints. For our application, we explore how each of these constraint classes reduced the number of behavioral parameter sets and altered distributions of spatiotemporal simulations, simulating a well-studied headwater catchment, Stringer Creek, Montana, using the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM). As a demonstrative exercise, we investigated model performance across 10 000 parameter sets. Constraints on regional signatures, the hydrograph, and two internal measurements of snow water equivalent time series reduced the number of behavioral parameter sets but still left a small number with similar goodness of fit. This subset was ultimately further reduced by incorporating pattern expectations of groundwater table depth across the catchment. Our results suggest that utilizing a hierarchical approach based on regional datasets, observations, and expert knowledge to identify behavioral parameter sets can reduce equifinality and bolster more careful application and simulation of spatiotemporal processes via distributed modeling at the catchment scale.

A bimodal biometric identification system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laghari, Mohammad S.; Khuwaja, Gulzar A.

2013-03-01

Biometrics consists of methods for uniquely recognizing humans based upon one or more intrinsic physical or behavioral traits. Physicals are related to the shape of the body. Behavioral are related to the behavior of a person. However, biometric authentication systems suffer from imprecision and difficulty in person recognition due to a number of reasons and no single biometrics is expected to effectively satisfy the requirements of all verification and/or identification applications. Bimodal biometric systems are expected to be more reliable due to the presence of two pieces of evidence and also be able to meet the severe performance requirements imposed by various applications. This paper presents a neural network based bimodal biometric identification system by using human face and handwritten signature features.

First Mass Measurement of a 'Domestic' Microlens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Subo; Carey, Sean; Gould, Andrew; Zhu, Wei

2017-11-01

We propose to combine Spitzer, Gaia, and ground-based measurements to determine the mass, distance, and transverse velocity of the 'domestic' microlensing event J0507+2447. This is only the second 'domestic' event (microlensed source distance less than about 1 kpc) ever discovered, but this number is already 10 times higher than the number that are expected. Hence, determining the nature of these lenses would resolve a major puzzle. The low expected rate is what caused Einstein to delay publication of his microlensing idea by 24 years. By very good fortune, Spitzer's narrow 38 day window of observations overlaps magnified portions of the event. To determine the mass requires to measure both the 'microlens parallax' (courtesy of Spitzer) and the 'angular Einstein radius' (which can be derived from Gaia astrometry). Thus, this is a truly rare opportunity to probe the nature of 'domestic' microlenses.

Intrinsic whole number bias in humans.

PubMed

Alonso-Díaz, Santiago; Piantadosi, Steven T; Hayden, Benjamin Y; Cantlon, Jessica F

2018-06-25

Humans have great difficulty comparing quotients including fractions, proportions, and probabilities and often erroneously isolate the whole numbers of the numerators and denominators to compare them. Some have argued that the whole number bias is a compensatory strategy to deal with difficult comparisons. We examined adult humans' preferences for gambles that differed only in numerosity, and not in factors that influence their expected value (probabilities and stakes). Subjects consistently preferred gambles with more winning balls to ones with fewer, even though the probabilities were mathematically identical, replicating prior results. In a second experiment, we found that subjects accurately represented the relative probabilities of the choice options during rapid nonverbal probability judgments but nonetheless showed biases based on whole numbers. We mathematically formalized and quantitatively evaluated cognitive rules based on existing hypotheses that attempt to explain subjects' whole number biases during quotient comparisons. The results show that the whole number bias is intrinsic to the way humans solve quotient comparisons rather than a compensatory strategy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

A Semiautomated Journal Check-In and Binding System; or Variations on a Common Theme

PubMed Central

Livingston, Frances G.

1967-01-01

The journal check-in project described here, though based on a computerized system, uses only unit-record equipment and is designed for the medium-sized library. The frequency codes used are based on the date printed on the journal rather than on the expected date of receipt, which allows for more stability in the coding scheme. The journal's volume number and issue number, which in other systems are usually predetermined by a computer, are inserted at the time of check-in. Routine claiming of overdue issues and a systematic binding schedule have also been developed as by-products. PMID:6041836

Swedish women's expectations about antenatal care and change over time - a comparative study of two cohorts of women.

PubMed

Hildingsson, Ingegerd; Andersson, Ewa; Christensson, Kyllike

2014-06-01

A decade ago a national cohort of Swedish-speaking women were surveyed about their expectations on antenatal care. Today, antenatal care in Sweden still operates under similar circumstances while changes have occurred in society and the pregnant population. To compare expectations of antenatal care in pregnant women recruited 2009-2010 to those of pregnant women from a national cohort in 1999-2000. An additional aim was to compare antenatal expectations in women recruited to a clinical trial and subsequently received group based or standard antenatal care. A cross-sectional pre-study of 700 women recruited to a clinical trial and a historical cohort of 3061 women from a Swedish national survey. Data was collected by a questionnaire in early pregnancy for both cohorts and before the clinical trial started. In early pregnancy 79% of the women in the study sample reported a preference for the recommended number of visits, which is slightly higher than in the national cohort (70%). Continuity of the caregiver was still important with 95% vs 97% of the women rated it important to meet the same midwife at subsequent antenatal visits. The content of care rank order showed a change over time with lower expectations in health check-ups and emotional content and higher expectations in information needs, respect and partner involvement. Women approached in early pregnancy had lower expectations about medical and emotional check-ups and parent education but higher expectations regarding information, being met with respect and the involvement of the partner compared to women 10 years ago. Continuity of a midwife caregiver was still important and women seem more willing to follow the recommended number of antenatal visits. Asking women about their expectations regarding antenatal care could be a means to individualize the care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Theoretical foundations for a quantitative approach to paleogenetics. I, II.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holmquist, R.

1972-01-01

It is shown that by neglecting the phenomena of multiple hits, back mutation, and chance coincidence errors larger than 100% can be introduced in the calculated value of the average number of nucleotide base differences to be expected between two homologous polynucleotides. Mathematical formulas are derived to correct quantitatively for these effects. It is pointed out that the effects change materially the quantitative aspects of phylogenics, such as the length of the legs of the trees. A number of problems are solved without approximation.-

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oliver, J. B.

Planetary substrate rotation for optical-coating deposition is evaluated based on initial and final positions for a given layer with different numbers of revolutions and various deposition-source locations. The influence of partial revolutions of the rotation system is analyzed relative to the total number of planetary revolutions in that layer to determine the relative impact on film thickness and uniformity. Furthermore, guidance is provided on the necessary planetary revolutions that should take place in each layer versus the expected error level in the layer thickness for the modeled system.

A Division-Dependent Compartmental Model for Computing Cell Numbers in CFSE-based Lymphocyte Proliferation Assays

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-12

is the total number of data points, is an approximately unbiased estimate of the “expected relative Kullback - Leibler distance” ( information loss...possible models). Thus, after each model from Table 2 is fit to a data set, we can compute the Akaike weights for the set of candidate models and use ...computed from the OLS best- fit model solution (top), from a deconvolution of the data using normal curves (middle) and from a deconvolution of the data

Conflict and expectancies interact to predict sexual behavior under the influence among gay and bisexual men

PubMed Central

Wells, Brooke E; Starks, Tyrel J; Parsons, Jeffrey T; Golub, Sarit

2013-01-01

As the mechanisms of the associations between substance use and risky sex remain unclear, this study investigates the interactive roles of conflicts about casual sex and condom use and expectancies of the sexual effects of substances in those associations among gay men. Conflict interacted with expectancies to predict sexual behavior under the influence; low casual sex conflict coupled with high expectancies predicted the highest number of casual partners, and high condom use conflict and high expectancies predicted the highest number of unprotected sex acts. Results have implications for intervention efforts that aim to improve sexual decision-making and reduce sexual expectancies. PMID:23584507

How many new cancer patients in Europe will require radiotherapy by 2025? An ESTRO-HERO analysis.

PubMed

Borras, Josep M; Lievens, Yolande; Barton, Michael; Corral, Julieta; Ferlay, Jacques; Bray, Freddie; Grau, Cai

2016-04-01

The objective of this HERO study was to assess the number of new cancer patients that will require at least one course of radiotherapy by 2025. European cancer incidence data by tumor site and country for 2012 and 2025 was extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. The projection of the number of new cases took into account demographic factors (age and size of the population). Population based stages at diagnosis were taken from four European countries. Incidence and stage data were introduced in the Australian Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CCORE) model. Among the different tumor sites, the highest expected relative increase by 2025 in treatment courses was prostate cancer (24%) while lymphoma (13%), head and neck (12%) and breast cancer (10%) were below the average. Based on the projected cancer distributions in 2025, a 16% expected increase in the number of radiotherapy treatment courses was estimated. This increase varied across European countries from less than 5% to more than 30%. With the already existing disparity in radiotherapy resources in mind, the data provided here should act as a leverage point to raise awareness among European health policy makers of the need for investment in radiotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dimensionless Analysis Applied to Bacterial Chemotaxis towards NAPL Contaminants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; GAO, B.; Zhong, W.; Kihaule, K. S.; Ford, R.

2017-12-01

The use of chemotactic bacteria in bioremediation may improve the efficiency and decrease the cost of restoration, which means it has the potential to address environmental problems caused by oil spills. However, most previous studies were focused at the laboratory-scale and there lacks a formalism that can use these laboratory-scale results as input to evaluate the relative importance of chemotaxis at the field scale. In this study, a dimensionless equation is formulated to solve this problem. First, the main influential factors were extracted based on previous researches in environmental bioremediation and then five sets of dimensionless numbers were obtained according to Buckingham theory. After collecting basic parameter values and supplementary calculations to determine the concentration gradient of the chemoattractant, all dimensionless numbers were calculated and categorized into two types, those that were sensitive to chemotaxis or those to groundwater velocity. The bacteria ratio (BR), defined as the ratio of maximum bacteria concentration to its original value, was correlated with a combination of dimensionless numbers to yield, BR=cP1-0.085P20.329P30.1P4-0.098. For a bacterial ratio greater than one, the bioremediation strategy based on chemotaxis is expected to be effective, and chemotactic bacteria are expected to accumulate around NAPL contaminant sources efficiently.

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

PubMed

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.

A Conceptual Model of Military Recruitment

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Research and...Technology Organisation (NATO) BP 25, F-92201 Neuilly-sur-Seine Cedex, France 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY...Hiring Expectancies – Expectancy (VIE) Theory ( Vroom , 1996) states individuals choose among a set of employment alternatives on the basis of the

An approach to solve group-decision-making problems with ordinal interval numbers.

PubMed

Fan, Zhi-Ping; Liu, Yang

2010-10-01

The ordinal interval number is a form of uncertain preference information in group decision making (GDM), while it is seldom discussed in the existing research. This paper investigates how the ranking order of alternatives is determined based on preference information of ordinal interval numbers in GDM problems. When ranking a large quantity of ordinal interval numbers, the efficiency and accuracy of the ranking process are critical. A new approach is proposed to rank alternatives using ordinal interval numbers when every ranking ordinal in an ordinal interval number is thought to be uniformly and independently distributed in its interval. First, we give the definition of possibility degree on comparing two ordinal interval numbers and the related theory analysis. Then, to rank alternatives, by comparing multiple ordinal interval numbers, a collective expectation possibility degree matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives is built, and an optimization model based on this matrix is constructed. Furthermore, an algorithm is also presented to rank alternatives by solving the model. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the use of the proposed approach.

Hispanic Women's Expectations of Campus-Based Health Clinics Addressing Sexual Health Concerns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephens, Dionne P.; Thomas, Tami L.

2011-01-01

Although the number of Hispanic women attending postsecondary institutions has significantly increased in the past decade, knowledge about their use of campus health services to address sexuality-related issues remains low. Increased information about this population is crucial given that sexual health indicators have shown Hispanic women in…

Experiences of Intensive English Learners: Motivations, Imagined Communities, and Identities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Juyeon

2014-01-01

Based on a widely held belief that immersion provides the best language learning opportunities, a large number of Asian students go to English-speaking countries to improve their English language skills. These strongly motivated learners arrive in a new country with a bag of expectations, learner beliefs, and imaginations about the new community…

Forestry returns evaluated for uneven-aged management in two Appalachian woodlots

Treesearch

Orris D. McCauley; George R., Jr. Trimble; George R. Trimble

1972-01-01

The forestry profession holds many theoretical concepts about the economics of forest stand culture and development. However, the literature contains only a limited number of reports showing expected monetary outcomes over time that are based on actual measurements made of applied forest practices in natural hardwood stands. This is such a report.

Statistical Handbook on Aging Americans. 1994 Edition. Statistical Handbook Series Number 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schick, Frank L., Ed.; Schick, Renee, Ed.

This statistical handbook contains 378 tables and charts illustrating the changes in the United States' aging population based on data collected during the 1990 census and several other surveys. The tables and charts are organized by topic as follows: demographics (age and sex distribution, life expectancy, race and ethnicity, geographic…

School-Based Training and Information for Paraprofessionals: A Handbook for Practicing Paraprofessionals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santana, Jesse

2016-01-01

School enrollment is expected to increase over the next decade, and with this increase, schools in the United States have seen an increase in the number of paraprofessionals employed to provide services for special education students. Paraprofessionals are key to providing services and assistance to students with special needs toward their…

Guide to Selected Algorithms, Distributions, and Databases Used in Exposure Models Developed By the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In the evaluation of emissions standards, OAQPS frequently uses one or more computer-based models to estimate the number of people who will be exposed to the air pollution levels that are expected to occur under various air quality scenarios.

High School to Community College: New Efforts to Build Shared Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosin, Matthew; Wilson, Kathy

2008-01-01

Although K-12 schools and community colleges share responsibility for the futures of a vast number of young Californians, and both are under pressure to improve student academic achievement, the groups operate under separate governance systems, pursue distinct missions, gauge success based on different measures, and are seldom looked at together.…

77 FR 76001 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-26

... and Threatened Species; Take of Anadromous Fish AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... regulations governing listed fish and wildlife permits(50 CFR parts 222-226). NMFS issues permits based on... described below, researchers do not expect to kill any listed fish but a small number may die as an...

Aviation and climate change : aircraft emissions expected to grow, but technological and operational improvements and government policies can help control emissions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

A number of policy options to address aircraft emissions are available to governments and can be part of broader policies to address emissions from many sources including aircraft. Market-based measures can establish a price for emissions and provide...

The Urgent Need for Career Preview: Student Expectations and Graduate Realities in Music and Dance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bennett, Dawn; Bridgstock, Ruth

2015-01-01

Unlike the work available in many creative disciplines, musicians and dancers have the possibility of company-based employment; however, participants outweigh the number of positions. As a result, many graduates become "enforced entrepreneurs" as they shape their work to meet personal and professional needs. The similarities between…

Model-based predictions for dopamine.

PubMed

Langdon, Angela J; Sharpe, Melissa J; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey; Niv, Yael

2018-04-01

Phasic dopamine responses are thought to encode a prediction-error signal consistent with model-free reinforcement learning theories. However, a number of recent findings highlight the influence of model-based computations on dopamine responses, and suggest that dopamine prediction errors reflect more dimensions of an expected outcome than scalar reward value. Here, we review a selection of these recent results and discuss the implications and complications of model-based predictions for computational theories of dopamine and learning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Changing climate in Hungary and trends in the annual number of heat stress days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solymosi, Norbert; Torma, Csaba; Kern, Anikó; Maróti-Agóts, Ákos; Barcza, Zoltán; Könyves, László; Berke, Olaf; Reiczigel, Jenő

2010-07-01

Global climate change can have serious direct effects on animal health and production through heat stress. In Hungary, the number of heat stress days per year (YNHD), i.e., days when the temperature humidity index (THI) is above a specific comfort threshold, has increased in recent years based on observed meteorological data. Between 1973 and 2008, the countrywide average increase in YNHD was 4.1% per year. Climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCM) were used to predict possible changes in YNHD for the near future (2021-2050) relative to the reference period (1961-1990). This comparison shows that, in Hungary, the 30-year mean of YNHD is expected to increase by between 1 and 27 days, depending on the RCM used. Half of the scenarios investigated in this study predicted that, in large parts of Hungary, YNHD will increase by at least 1 week. However, the increase observed in the past, and that predicted for the near future, is spatially heterogeneous, and areas that currently have large cattle populations are expected to be affected more severely than other regions.

Expected hazards and hospital beds in host cities of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.

PubMed

Miranda, Elaine Silva; Shoaf, Kimberley; Silva, Raulino Sabino da; Freitas, Carolina Figueiredo; Osorio-de-Castro, Claudia Garcia Serpa

2017-06-12

Planning for mass gatherings involves health system preparedness based on an understanding of natural and technological hazards identified through prior risk assessment. We present the expected hazards reported by health administrators of the host cities for the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil and discuss the hazards considering minimal available public hospital beds in the 12 cities at the time of the event. Four different groups of respondents were interviewed: pharmaceutical service administrators and overall health administrators at both the municipal and hospital levels. The hospital bed occupancy rate was calculated, based on the Brazilian Health Informatics Department (DATASUS). The number of surplus beds was calculated using parameters from the literature regarding surge and mass casualty needs and number of unoccupied beds. In all groups, physical injuries ranked first, followed by emerging and endemic diseases. Baseline occupancy rates were high (95%CI: 0.93-2.19) in all 12 cities. Total shortage, considering all the cities, ranged from -47,670 (for surges) to -60,569 beds (for mass casualties). The study can contribute to discussions on mass-gathering preparedness.

Expectation maximization-based likelihood inference for flexible cure rate models with Weibull lifetimes.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy; Pal, Suvra

2016-08-01

Recently, a flexible cure rate survival model has been developed by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution. This model includes some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature as special cases. Data obtained from cancer clinical trials are often right censored and expectation maximization algorithm can be used in this case to efficiently estimate the model parameters based on right censored data. In this paper, we consider the competing cause scenario and assuming the time-to-event to follow the Weibull distribution, we derive the necessary steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for estimating the parameters of different cure rate survival models. The standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by inverting the observed information matrix. The method of inference developed here is examined by means of an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data on cancer recurrence. © The Author(s) 2013.

Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2015-12-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

Metaphorical motion in mathematical reasoning: further evidence for pre-motor implementation of structure mapping in abstract domains.

PubMed

Fields, Chris

2013-08-01

The theory of computation and category theory both employ arrow-based notations that suggest that the basic metaphor "state changes are like motions" plays a fundamental role in all mathematical reasoning involving formal manipulations. If this is correct, structure-mapping inferences implemented by the pre-motor action planning system can be expected to be involved in solving any mathematics problems not solvable by table lookups and number line manipulations alone. Available functional imaging studies of multi-digit arithmetic, algebra, geometry and calculus problem solving are consistent with this expectation.

Do You Really Expect Me to Get MST Care in a VA Where Everyone is Male? Innovative Delivery of Evidence-Based Psychotherapy to Women with Military Sexual Trauma

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

Based Psychotherapy to Women with Military Sexual Trauma PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Ronald Acierno, PhD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Medical University of...a VA Where Everyone is Male? Innovative Delivery of Evidence-Based Psychotherapy to Women with Military Sexual Trauma 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...Based Psychotherapy to Women with Military Sexual Trauma W81XWH-14-1-0264 / PT130434 PI: Ronald Acierno, PhD Org: Medical University of South

The Effectiveness of Web-Based Tailored Smoking Cessation Interventions on the Quitting Process (Project Quit): Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Bibhas; Maiti, Raju; Strecher, Victor J

2018-06-20

Project Quit was a randomized Web-based smoking cessation trial designed and conducted by researchers from the University of Michigan, where its primary outcome was the 7-day point prevalence. One drawback of such an outcome is that it only focuses on smoking behavior over a very short duration, rather than the quitting process over the entire study period. The aim of this study was to consider the number of quit attempts during the 6-month study period as an alternative outcome, which would better reflect the quitting process. We aimed to find out whether tailored interventions (high vs low) are better in reducing the number of quit attempts for specific subgroups of smokers. To identify interactions between intervention components of smoking cessation and individual smoker characteristics, we employed Poisson regression to analyze the number of quit attempts. This approach allowed us to construct data-driven, personalized interventions. A negative effect of the number of cigarettes smoked per day (P=.03) and a positive effect of education (P=.03) on the number of quit attempts were detected from the baseline covariates (n=792). Thus, for every 10 extra cigarettes smoked per day, there was a 5.84% decrease in the expected number of quit attempts. Highly educated participants had a 15.49% increase in their expected number of quit attempts compared with their low-educated counterparts. A negative interaction between intervention component story and smoker's education was also detected (P=.03), suggesting that a high-tailored story given to highly educated people results in 13.50% decrease in the number of quit attempts compared with a low-tailored story. A highly individually tailored story is significantly more effective for smokers with a low level of education. This is consistent with prior findings from Project Quit based on the 7-day point prevalence. ©Bibhas Chakraborty, Raju Maiti, Victor J Strecher. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 20.06.2018.

From free energy to expected energy: Improving energy-based value function approximation in reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Elfwing, Stefan; Uchibe, Eiji; Doya, Kenji

2016-12-01

Free-energy based reinforcement learning (FERL) was proposed for learning in high-dimensional state and action spaces. However, the FERL method does only really work well with binary, or close to binary, state input, where the number of active states is fewer than the number of non-active states. In the FERL method, the value function is approximated by the negative free energy of a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). In our earlier study, we demonstrated that the performance and the robustness of the FERL method can be improved by scaling the free energy by a constant that is related to the size of network. In this study, we propose that RBM function approximation can be further improved by approximating the value function by the negative expected energy (EERL), instead of the negative free energy, as well as being able to handle continuous state input. We validate our proposed method by demonstrating that EERL: (1) outperforms FERL, as well as standard neural network and linear function approximation, for three versions of a gridworld task with high-dimensional image state input; (2) achieves new state-of-the-art results in stochastic SZ-Tetris in both model-free and model-based learning settings; and (3) significantly outperforms FERL and standard neural network function approximation for a robot navigation task with raw and noisy RGB images as state input and a large number of actions. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Agreement Between Aging Parent’s Bequest Intention and Middle-Aged Child’s Inheritance Expectation

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyungmin

2013-01-01

Purpose: This study investigated discrepancies in expectations of aging parents and their middle-aged offspring regarding future inheritances. Methods: Data from 327 older parent–adult child dyads were analyzed. Using multilevel models, we examined factors (e.g., economic resources, family characteristics, current support exchanges, and beliefs about family obligation) associated with expectations of inheritance. We also explored patterns of correspondence in expectations over inheritance within dyads and what factors are associated with these patterns. Results: We found a significant generational difference in expectations of inheritance, with children less likely to expect inheritances than parents expected to give. Parent’s income, number of siblings, and support currently given to children were significantly associated with both parents’ and children’s positive expectations of inheritance. The effects of child’s income, support given to parent, and parent’s gender on inheritance expectations differed between parents and children. Compared with discordant dyads (parents intended to leave a bequest, but their child did not expect an inheritance), correspondent dyads (both parents and children expected a bequest) showed higher income of parents and children, more support given to the child, and lower levels of child’s filial obligation. Implications: Although bequest decisions are circumscribed by parent’s financial resources, our findings suggest that they are also a continuation of established patterns of exchanges. Parents and children form their intention or expectation about inheritance based on different factors, leaving open the possibility of misunderstandings between the generations. PMID:23197395

Range and trend of expected toxicity level (ETL) in standard A + B designs: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Chen, Zhengjia; Krailo, Mark D; Sun, Junfeng; Azen, Stanley P

2009-03-01

The traditional algorithm-based 3+3 designs are most widely used for their practical simplicity in phase I clinical trials. At early stage, a common belief was that the expected toxicity level (ETL) at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) should be 33% [Storer, B. Design and analysis of phase I clinical trials. Biometrics 1989;45;925-937, Gorden, N., Willson, J. Using toxicity grades in the design and analysis of cancer phase I clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 1992; 11: 2063-2075, Mick, R. Phase I Clinical Trial Design. In Schilsky, R., Milano, G., Ratain, M., eds. Principles of Antineoplastic Drug Development and Pharmacology New York, NY: Marcel Dekker, 1996; 29-36]. Recently, Kang and Ahn [Kang, S., Ahn, C. The expected toxicity rate at the maximum tolerated dose in the standard phase I cancer clinical trial design. Drug Information Journal 2001; 35:1189-1199, Kang, S., Ahn, C. An investigation of the traditional algorithm-based designs for phase I cancer clinical trials. Drug Information Journal 2002; 36:865-873] found that the ETL is between 17% and 21% and He et al [He, W., Liu, J., Binkowitz, B., Quan, H. A model-based approach in the estimation of the maximum tolerated dose in phase I cancer clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 2006; 25(12):2027-42] further reported that the ETL ranges from 19% to 24%. However they only investigated designs where the number of dose levels was at most 20. It has practical significance in designing and conducting phase I clinical trial to definitely assess the full range and trend of ETL by all possible number of tested dose levels in traditional algorithm-based A+B designs, especially 3+3 designs. In this simulation study, we originally find that the ETL decreases monotonically from about 30% to 0% as the number of dose levels increase from 3 to infinity, which will correct the inaccuracy in the common belief among phase I trial investigators. To help better design and conduct phase I trials, we create a table as a reference for the association between ETL and number of dose levels considered in a design when the exact shape of the dose-toxicity relationship is not well understood. We conclude that the number of specified dose levels is an important factor affecting substantially the ETL at MTD and recommend that fewer than 20 dose levels be designated.

Conflict and expectancies interact to predict sexual behavior under the influence among gay and bisexual men.

PubMed

Wells, Brooke E; Starks, Tyrel J; Parsons, Jeffrey T; Golub, Sarit

2014-07-01

As the mechanisms of the associations between substance use and risky sex remain unclear, this study investigates the interactive roles of conflicts about casual sex and condom use and expectancies of the sexual effects of substances in those associations among gay men. Conflict interacted with expectancies to predict sexual behavior under the influence; low casual sex conflict coupled with high expectancies predicted the highest number of casual partners, and high condom use conflict and high expectancies predicted the highest number of unprotected sex acts. Results have implications for intervention efforts that aim to improve sexual decision-making and reduce sexual expectancies. © The Author(s) 2013.

Expected performance of m-solution backtracking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, D. M.

1986-01-01

This paper derives upper bounds on the expected number of search tree nodes visited during an m-solution backtracking search, a search which terminates after some preselected number m problem solutions are found. The search behavior is assumed to have a general probabilistic structure. The results are stated in terms of node expansion and contraction. A visited search tree node is said to be expanding if the mean number of its children visited by the search exceeds 1 and is contracting otherwise. It is shown that if every node expands, or if every node contracts, then the number of search tree nodes visited by a search has an upper bound which is linear in the depth of the tree, in the mean number of children a node has, and in the number of solutions sought. Also derived are bounds linear in the depth of the tree in some situations where an upper portion of the tree contracts (expands), while the lower portion expands (contracts). While previous analyses of 1-solution backtracking have concluded that the expected performance is always linear in the tree depth, the model allows superlinear expected performance.

The effects of sweep numbers per average and protocol type on the accuracy of the p300-based concealed information test.

PubMed

Dietrich, Ariana B; Hu, Xiaoqing; Rosenfeld, J Peter

2014-03-01

In the first of two experiments, we compared the accuracy of the P300 concealed information test protocol as a function of numbers of trials experienced by subjects and ERP averages analyzed by investigators. Contrary to Farwell et al. (Cogn Neurodyn 6(2):115-154, 2012), we found no evidence that 100 trial based averages are more accurate than 66 or 33 trial based averages (all numbers led to accuracies of 84-94 %). There was actually a trend favoring the lowest trial numbers. The second study compared numbers of irrelevant stimuli recalled and recognized in the 3-stimulus protocol versus the complex trial protocol (Rosenfeld in Memory detection: theory and application of the concealed information test, Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 63-89, 2011). Again, in contrast to expectations from Farwell et al. (Cogn Neurodyn 6(2):115-154, 2012), there were no differences between protocols, although there were more irrelevant stimuli recognized than recalled, and irrelevant 4-digit number group stimuli were neither recalled nor recognized as well as irrelevant city name stimuli. We therefore conclude that stimulus processing in the P300-based complex trial protocol-with no more than 33 sweep averages-is adequate to allow accurate detection of concealed information.

Voltage equalization of an ultracapacitor module by cell grouping using number partitioning algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyarbide, E.; Bernal, C.; Molina, P.; Jiménez, L. A.; Gálvez, R.; Martínez, A.

2016-01-01

Ultracapacitors are low voltage devices and therefore, for practical applications, they need to be used in modules of series-connected cells. Because of the inherent manufacturing tolerance of the capacitance parameter of each cell, and as the maximum voltage value cannot be exceeded, the module requires inter-cell voltage equalization. If the intended application suffers repeated fast charging/discharging cycles, active equalization circuits must be rated to full power, and thus the module becomes expensive. Previous work shows that a series connection of several sets of paralleled ultracapacitors minimizes the dispersion of equivalent capacitance values, and also the voltage differences between capacitors. Thus the overall life expectancy is improved. This paper proposes a method to distribute ultracapacitors with a number partitioning-based strategy to reduce the dispersion between equivalent submodule capacitances. Thereafter, the total amount of stored energy and/or the life expectancy of the device can be considerably improved.

ALGORITHM BASED ON ARTIFICIAL BEE COLONY FOR UNFOLDING OF NEUTRON SPECTRA OBTAINED WITH BONNER SPHERES.

PubMed

Silva, Everton R; Freitas, Bruno M; Santos, Denison S; Maurício, Cláudia L P

2018-04-13

Occupational neutron fields usually have energies from the thermal range to some MeV and the characterization of the spectra is essential for estimation of the radioprotection quantities. Thus, the spectrum must be unfolded based on a limited number of measurements. This study implemented an algorithm based on the bee colonies behavior, named Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), where the intelligent behavior of the bees in search of food is reproduced to perform the unfolding of neutron spectra. The experimental measurements used Bonner spheres and 6LiI (Eu) detector, with irradiations using a thermal neutron flux and three reference fields: 241Am-Be, 252Cf and 252Cf (D2O). The ABC obtained good estimation of the expected spectrum even without previous information and its results were closer to expected spectra than those obtained by the SPUNIT algorithm.

Administrative review process for adjudicating initial disability claims. Final rule.

PubMed

2006-03-31

The Social Security Administration is committed to providing the high quality of service the American people expect and deserve. In light of the significant growth in the number of disability claims and the increased complexity of those claims, the need to make substantial changes in our disability determination process has become urgent. We are publishing a final rule that amends our administrative review process for applications for benefits that are based on whether you are disabled under title II of the Social Security Act (the Act), or applications for supplemental security income (SSI) payments that are based on whether you are disabled or blind under title XVI of the Act. We expect that this final rule will improve the accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of decision-making throughout the disability determination process.

Expected number of quantum channels in quantum networks.

PubMed

Chen, Xi; Wang, He-Ming; Ji, Dan-Tong; Mu, Liang-Zhu; Fan, Heng

2015-07-15

Quantum communication between nodes in quantum networks plays an important role in quantum information processing. Here, we proposed the use of the expected number of quantum channels as a measure of the efficiency of quantum communication for quantum networks. This measure quantified the amount of quantum information that can be teleported between nodes in a quantum network, which differs from classical case in that the quantum channels will be consumed if teleportation is performed. We further demonstrated that the expected number of quantum channels represents local correlations depicted by effective circles. Significantly, capacity of quantum communication of quantum networks quantified by ENQC is independent of distance for the communicating nodes, if the effective circles of communication nodes are not overlapped. The expected number of quantum channels can be enhanced through transformations of the lattice configurations of quantum networks via entanglement swapping. Our results can shed lights on the study of quantum communication in quantum networks.

Expected number of quantum channels in quantum networks

PubMed Central

Chen, Xi; Wang, He-Ming; Ji, Dan-Tong; Mu, Liang-Zhu; Fan, Heng

2015-01-01

Quantum communication between nodes in quantum networks plays an important role in quantum information processing. Here, we proposed the use of the expected number of quantum channels as a measure of the efficiency of quantum communication for quantum networks. This measure quantified the amount of quantum information that can be teleported between nodes in a quantum network, which differs from classical case in that the quantum channels will be consumed if teleportation is performed. We further demonstrated that the expected number of quantum channels represents local correlations depicted by effective circles. Significantly, capacity of quantum communication of quantum networks quantified by ENQC is independent of distance for the communicating nodes, if the effective circles of communication nodes are not overlapped. The expected number of quantum channels can be enhanced through transformations of the lattice configurations of quantum networks via entanglement swapping. Our results can shed lights on the study of quantum communication in quantum networks. PMID:26173556

Rapid increase in Japanese life expectancy after World War II.

PubMed

Sugiura, Yasuo; Ju, Young-Su; Yasuoka, Junko; Jimba, Masamine

2010-02-01

Japanese life expectancy increased by about 13.7 years during the first decade after World War II, despite the country's post-war poverty. Although it is known that medical progress explains part of this increase, roles of non-medical factors have not been systematically studied. This study hypothesizes that non-medical factors, in addition to medical factors, are associated with the rapid increase in life expectancy in Japan. We analyzed the time trends of potential explanatory factors and used regression analysis with historical data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' Historical Statistics of Japan during the period between 1946 and 1983. Time trends analysis revealed that the rapid increase in life expectancy preceded the dramatic growth of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 10 years. In education, the nearly universal enrollment in elementary schools and increased advancement to upper secondary schools for both sexes were associated with better health. Regarding legislation, 32 health laws were passed in the first decade after the war and these laws were associated with improved health. Using regression analysis, we found that the enrollment rate in elementary schools, the number of health laws, and expansion of community-based activity staff were significantly associated with the increased life expectancy during the first decade after World War II. To conclude, in addition to medical factors, non-medical factors applied across the country, particularly education, community-based activities and legislation were associated with the rapid increase in Japanese life expectancy after World War II.

Optimizing Experimental Designs Relative to Costs and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Headrick, Todd C.; Zumbo, Bruno D.

A general model is derived for the purpose of efficiently allocating integral numbers of units in multi-level designs given prespecified power levels. The derivation of the model is based on a constrained optimization problem that maximizes a general form of a ratio of expected mean squares subject to a budget constraint. This model provides more…

Successfully Transitioning from the AA-MAS to the General Assessment. NCEO Policy Directions. Number 22

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lazarus, Sheryl; Thurlow, Martha; Christensen, Laurene; Shyyan, Vitaliy

2014-01-01

Federal policy initiatives such as the flexibility waivers for accountability are requiring that states transition away from the use of an alternate assessment based on modified achievement standards (AA-MAS). It is expected that those students who had participated in that assessment will instead participate in the state's general assessment (or a…

Student Motivation in Graduate Music Programmes: An Examination of Personal and Environmental Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez-Moreno, Patricia Adelaida

2012-01-01

Despite the increasing number of students in music education graduate programmes, attrition rates suggest a lack of success in retaining and assisting them to the completion of their degree. Based on the expectancy-value theory, the aim of this study was to examine students' motivations (values and competence beliefs) and their complex interaction…

Hospitality Major Vocational High School Students' Expectations on University Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Ya-Ting; Yang, Cheng-Cheng

2013-01-01

Hospitality is not a new industry in Asia, but high quality hospitality industry has become more and more important in the trend of questing service-based economy and the increasing number of tourists in Asia. Thus there are more universities opened hospitality degree programs in Asia, Taiwan is no exception. In this context, why high school…

Optimized horse trail design for Illinois soil

Treesearch

C.J. Jones; Logan O. Park

2014-01-01

One of the fastest growing forms of outdoor recreation is equestrian trail riding. In a study examining long-term trends of use on Forest Service lands, equestrian-based recreation was identified as one of the top five activities experiencing growth. As the numbers of horse riders rise, the economic impact of equestrian recreation can be expected to increase across the...

Postpartum Depression Prevention for Reservation-Based American Indians: Results from a Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ginsburg, Golda S.; Barlow, Allison; Goklish, Novalene; Hastings, Ranelda; Baker, Elena Varipatis; Mullany, Britta; Tein, Jenn-Yun; Walkup, John

2012-01-01

Background: Postpartum depression is a devastating condition that affects a significant number of women and their offspring. Few preventive interventions have targeted high risk youth, such as American Indians (AIs). Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of a depression prevention program for AI adolescents and young adults. Methods: Expectant AI…

Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis.

PubMed

DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine; Leff, Bruce; Anderson, Gerard F

2014-08-01

The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. A retrospective cohort study using single-decrement period life tables. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, and Alzheimer disease), and number of comorbid conditions. Comorbidity was measured as a count of conditions collected by Chronic Conditions Warehouse and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. Life expectancy decreases with each additional chronic condition. A 67-year-old individual with no chronic conditions will live on average 22.6 additional years. A 67-year-old individual with 5 chronic conditions and ≥10 chronic conditions will live 7.7 fewer years and 17.6 fewer years, respectively. The average marginal decline in life expectancy is 1.8 years with each additional chronic condition-ranging from 0.4 fewer years with the first condition to 2.6 fewer years with the sixth condition. These results are consistent by sex and race. We observe differences in life expectancy by selected conditions at 67, but these differences diminish with age and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency.

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Waggoner, Bruce; Bryant, Larry

2014-01-01

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

[Modeling integrative oncology care program for Arab patients in north Israel: towards quality of life improvement during chemotherapy].

PubMed

Ben-Arye, Eran; Dagash, Jamal; Silbermann, Michael; Saad, Bashar; Steiner, Mariana; Popper-Giveon, Ariela; Lev, Efraim; Agbarya, Abed; Sela, Gil Bar; Karkabi, Khaled; Schiff, Elad

2015-01-01

In the last decade, a number of integrative oncology programs have been established within leading oncology departments in Israel aiming to provide consultations that address patients' concerns and improve their quality of life (QOL). To identify Arab cancer patients' attitudes, needs and expectations concerning integration of complementary and traditional medicine (CTM) in their supportive oncology care. This article presents studies based on both qualitative (including interviews with patients, oncologists and CTM practitioners) and quantitative studies which were designed to evaluate patients' attitudes, needs and expectations regarding CTM integration in supportive oncology care. Of the 313 Arab respondents, 109 reported on the use of herbal medicine for cancer-associated outcomes. Over 78% of respondents considered QOL improvement as their main expectation of integrated CM consultation. Similar expectations were expressed in studies exploring 155 cancer care practitioners in Israel and Arab countries, 27 CTM-trained Arab practitioners, and a sample of 15 Arab patients referred to integrative medicine consultation. Arab cancer patients support QOL-oriented integrated medicine programs provided in oncology settings. Integrative medicine consultation should provide patients with an evidence-based recommendation on efficacy and safety of herbs commonly used concomitant with chemotherapy. We recommend designing integrative oncology training courses for physicians who will provide evidence-based consultation attuned with Arab patients' needs, concerns and cultural-sensitive orientation.

Basal cell skin cancer and the risk of second primary cancers: a cancer registry-based study in Lithuania.

PubMed

Krilaviciute, Agne; Vincerzevskiene, Ieva; Smailyte, Giedre

2016-07-01

The aim of this population-based cohort study was to determine the risk of second primary cancer in basal cell carcinoma (BCC) patients in Lithuania. This analysis was based on patients diagnosed with BCC in Lithuania between 1998 and 2007 and followed until 2011. Standardized incidence ratios for subsequent cancers as a ratio of observed number of cancer cases in people with previous BCC diagnosis to the expected number of cancer cases in the underlying general population were calculated. After diagnosis of BCC, 1442 new cases of selected cancers were diagnosed. Compared with the general population, the incidence of all new primaries combined after BCC was very close to expected. Statistically meaningful increase in developing subsequent cancer was obtained for Hodgkin's lymphoma, prostate cancer, and leukemia in men, and for cancers of the lip, lung, and breast in women. Risk of melanoma and thyroid cancer was significantly elevated in both sexes. Relative risk of cancer of the eye was increased although not significant. In our study, we found increased cancer risk for cancers related to sun exposure. In addition, increased risks were identified for Hodgkin's lymphoma, thyroid cancer, leukemia, prostate, and breast cancer in BCC patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the combinatorics of sparsification.

PubMed

Huang, Fenix Wd; Reidys, Christian M

2012-10-22

We study the sparsification of dynamic programming based on folding algorithms of RNA structures. Sparsification is a method that improves significantly the computation of minimum free energy (mfe) RNA structures. We provide a quantitative analysis of the sparsification of a particular decomposition rule, Λ∗. This rule splits an interval of RNA secondary and pseudoknot structures of fixed topological genus. Key for quantifying sparsifications is the size of the so called candidate sets. Here we assume mfe-structures to be specifically distributed (see Assumption 1) within arbitrary and irreducible RNA secondary and pseudoknot structures of fixed topological genus. We then present a combinatorial framework which allows by means of probabilities of irreducible sub-structures to obtain the expectation of the Λ∗-candidate set w.r.t. a uniformly random input sequence. We compute these expectations for arc-based energy models via energy-filtered generating functions (GF) in case of RNA secondary structures as well as RNA pseudoknot structures. Furthermore, for RNA secondary structures we also analyze a simplified loop-based energy model. Our combinatorial analysis is then compared to the expected number of Λ∗-candidates obtained from the folding mfe-structures. In case of the mfe-folding of RNA secondary structures with a simplified loop-based energy model our results imply that sparsification provides a significant, constant improvement of 91% (theory) to be compared to an 96% (experimental, simplified arc-based model) reduction. However, we do not observe a linear factor improvement. Finally, in case of the "full" loop-energy model we can report a reduction of 98% (experiment). Sparsification was initially attributed a linear factor improvement. This conclusion was based on the so called polymer-zeta property, which stems from interpreting polymer chains as self-avoiding walks. Subsequent findings however reveal that the O(n) improvement is not correct. The combinatorial analysis presented here shows that, assuming a specific distribution (see Assumption 1), of mfe-structures within irreducible and arbitrary structures, the expected number of Λ∗-candidates is Θ(n2). However, the constant reduction is quite significant, being in the range of 96%. We furthermore show an analogous result for the sparsification of the Λ∗-decomposition rule for RNA pseudoknotted structures of genus one. Finally we observe that the effect of sparsification is sensitive to the employed energy model.

Scheduling elective surgeries: the tradeoff among bed capacity, waiting patients and operating room utilization using goal programming.

PubMed

Li, Xiangyong; Rafaliya, N; Baki, M Fazle; Chaouch, Ben A

2017-03-01

Scheduling of surgeries in the operating rooms under limited competing resources such as surgical and nursing staff, anesthesiologist, medical equipment, and recovery beds in surgical wards is a complicated process. A well-designed schedule should be concerned with the welfare of the entire system by allocating the available resources in an efficient and effective manner. In this paper, we develop an integer linear programming model in a manner useful for multiple goals for optimally scheduling elective surgeries based on the availability of surgeons and operating rooms over a time horizon. In particular, the model is concerned with the minimization of the following important goals: (1) the anticipated number of patients waiting for service; (2) the underutilization of operating room time; (3) the maximum expected number of patients in the recovery unit; and (4) the expected range (the difference between maximum and minimum expected number) of patients in the recovery unit. We develop two goal programming (GP) models: lexicographic GP model and weighted GP model. The lexicographic GP model schedules operating rooms when various preemptive priority levels are given to these four goals. A numerical study is conducted to illustrate the optimal master-surgery schedule obtained from the models. The numerical results demonstrate that when the available number of surgeons and operating rooms is known without error over the planning horizon, the proposed models can produce good schedules and priority levels and preference weights of four goals affect the resulting schedules. The results quantify the tradeoffs that must take place as the preemptive-weights of the four goals are changed.

Teachers from Instructors to Designers of Inquiry-Based Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Education: How Effective Inquiry-Based Science Education Implementation Can Result in Innovative Teachers and Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Filippi, Alyssa; Agarwal, Dipali

2017-01-01

There is a need for individuals in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) careers to drive the innovation and research potential of Europe. Yet, there is expected to be a decrease in the number of STEM professionals, as there is less student interest in STEM fields of the study. Studies show that STEM classes that focus on…

Impact of non-integer planetary revolutions on the distribution of evaporated optical coatings

DOE PAGES

Oliver, J. B.

2017-02-08

Planetary substrate rotation for optical-coating deposition is evaluated based on initial and final positions for a given layer with different numbers of revolutions and various deposition-source locations. The influence of partial revolutions of the rotation system is analyzed relative to the total number of planetary revolutions in that layer to determine the relative impact on film thickness and uniformity. Furthermore, guidance is provided on the necessary planetary revolutions that should take place in each layer versus the expected error level in the layer thickness for the modeled system.

Wind velocity-change (gust rise) criteria for wind turbine design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cliff, W.C.; Fichtl, G.H.

1978-07-01

A closed-form equation is derived for root mean square (rms) value of velocity change (gust rise) that occurs over the swept area of wind turbine rotor systems and an equation for rms value of velocity change that occurs at a single point in space. These formulas confirm the intuitive assumption that a large system will encounter a less severe environment than a small system when both are placed at the same location. Assuming a normal probability density function for the velocity differences, an equation is given for calculating the expected number of velocity differences that will occur in 1 hrmore » and will be larger than an arbitrary value. A formula is presented that gives the expected number of velocity differences larger than an arbitrary value that will be encountered during the design life of a wind turbine. In addition, a method for calculating the largest velocity difference expected during the life of a turbine and a formula for estimating the risk of exceeding a given velocity difference during the life of the structure are given. The equations presented are based upon general atmospheric boundary-layer conditions and do not include information regarding events such as tornados, hurricanes, etc.« less

How did national life expectation related to school years in developing countries - an approach using panel data mining.

PubMed

Jian, Wen-Shan; Huang, Chen-Ling; Iqbal, Usman; Nguyen, Phung-Anh; Hsiao, George; Li, Hsien-Chang

2014-03-01

The purpose of the study was to probe into the changes in life expectancy associated with schooling years found by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The study was based on the OECD database from the period 2000 to 2006. The data of thirty countries were constructed to allow comparisons over time and across these countries. Panel data analysis was used to estimate the relationship of national education, as defined as school years, with life expectancy. The control factors considered were numbers of practicing physicians, practicing nurses, hospital beds, and GDP. We used fixed effects of both country and time through linear regression, the coefficient of school years in relation to life expectancy was statistically significant but negative. This finding is not in accord with the hypothesis that investing in human capital through education stimulates better health outcomes. Within developing countries, educational attainment is no longer keeping the same pace with life expectancy as before. Therefore, we suggest that an effective education policy should cover diverse topics, for example, balancing economic growth and mental hygiene, to improve national life expectancy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

WE-DE-201-11: Sensitivity and Specificity of Verification Methods Based On Total Reference Air Kerma (TRAK) Or On User Provided Dose Points for Graphically Planned Skin HDR Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damato, A; Devlin, P; Bhagwat, M

Purpose: To investigate the sensitivity and specificity of a novel verification methodology for image-guided skin HDR brachytherapy plans using a TRAK-based reasonableness test, compared to a typical manual verification methodology. Methods: Two methodologies were used to flag treatment plans necessitating additional review due to a potential discrepancy of 3 mm between planned dose and clinical target in the skin. Manual verification was used to calculate the discrepancy between the average dose to points positioned at time of planning representative of the prescribed depth and the expected prescription dose. Automatic verification was used to calculate the discrepancy between TRAK of themore » clinical plan and its expected value, which was calculated using standard plans with varying curvatures, ranging from flat to cylindrically circumferential. A plan was flagged if a discrepancy >10% was observed. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using as a criteria for true positive that >10% of plan dwells had a distance to prescription dose >1 mm different than prescription depth (3 mm + size of applicator). All HDR image-based skin brachytherapy plans treated at our institution in 2013 were analyzed. Results: 108 surface applicator plans to treat skin of the face, scalp, limbs, feet, hands or abdomen were analyzed. Median number of catheters was 19 (range, 4 to 71) and median number of dwells was 257 (range, 20 to 1100). Sensitivity/specificity were 57%/78% for manual and 70%/89% for automatic verification. Conclusion: A check based on expected TRAK value is feasible for irregularly shaped, image-guided skin HDR brachytherapy. This test yielded higher sensitivity and specificity than a test based on the identification of representative points, and can be implemented with a dedicated calculation code or with pre-calculated lookup tables of ideally shaped, uniform surface applicators.« less

Leaving Sweden behind: Gains in life expectancy in Canada.

PubMed

Auger, Nathalie; Le Serbon, Emilie; Rostila, Mikael

2015-06-01

Sweden and Canada are known for quality of living and exceedingly high life expectancy, but recent data on how these countries compare are lacking. We measured life expectancy in Canada and Sweden during the past decade, and identified factors responsible for changes over time. We calculated life expectancy at birth for Canada and Sweden annually from 2000 to 2010, and determined the ages and causes of death responsible for the gap between the two countries using Arriaga's method. We determined how population growth, ageing, and mortality influenced the number of deaths over time. During 2000-2010, life expectancy in Canada caught up with Sweden for men, and surpassed Sweden by 0.4 years for women. Sweden lost ground owing to a slower reduction in circulatory and tumour mortality after age 65 years compared with Canada. Nonetheless, population ageing increased the number of deaths in Canada, especially for mental and nervous system disorders. In Sweden, the number of deaths decreased. In only one decade, life expectancy in Canada caught up and surpassed Sweden due to rapid improvements in circulatory and tumour mortality. Population ageing increased the number of deaths in Canada, potentially stressing the health care system more than in Sweden. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

The method of expected number of deaths, 1786-1886-1986.

PubMed

Keiding, N

1987-04-01

"The method of expected number of deaths is an integral part of standardization of vital rates, which is one of the oldest statistical techniques. The expected number of deaths was calculated in 18th century actuarial mathematics...but the method seems to have been forgotten, and was reinvented in connection with 19th century studies of geographical and occupational variations of mortality.... It is noted that standardization of rates is intimately connected to the study of relative mortality, and a short description of very recent developments in the methodology of that area is included." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt

Impact of presentation of research results on likelihood of prescribing medications to patients with left ventricular dysfunction.

PubMed

Lacy, C R; Barone, J A; Suh, D C; Malini, P L; Bueno, M; Moylan, D M; Kostis, J B

2001-01-15

This study was conducted to evaluate willingness to prescribe medication based on identical data presented in different outcome terms to health professionals of varied discipline, geographic location, and level of training. Cross-sectional survey using a self-administered questionnaire was performed in 400 health professionals (physicians, pharmacists, physicians-in-training, and pharmacy students) in the United States and Europe. Data reflecting a clinical trial were presented in 6 outcome terms: 3 terms describing identical mortality (relative risk reduction, absolute risk reduction, and number of patients needed to be treated to prevent 1 death); and 3 distractors (increased life expectancy, decreased hospitalization rate, and decreased cost). Willingness to prescribe and rank order of medication preference assuming willingness to prescribe were measured. The results of the study showed that willingness to prescribe and first choice preference were significantly greater when study results were presented as relative risk reduction than when identical mortality data were presented as absolute risk reduction or number of patients needed to be treated to avoid 1 death (p <0.001). Increase in life expectancy was the most influential distractor. In conclusion, this study, performed in the era of "evidence-based medicine," demonstrates that the method of reporting research trial results has significant influence on health professionals' willingness to prescribe. The high numerical value of relative risk reduction and the concrete and tangible quality of increased life expectancy exert greater influence on health professionals than other standard outcome terms.

A comparison of three approaches to compute the effective Reynolds number of the implicit large-eddy simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ye; Thornber, Ben

2016-04-12

Here, the implicit large-eddy simulation (ILES) has been utilized as an effective approach for calculating many complex flows at high Reynolds number flows. Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) induced flow can be viewed as a homogeneous decaying turbulence (HDT) after the passage of the shock. In this article, a critical evaluation of three methods for estimating the effective Reynolds number and the effective kinematic viscosity is undertaken utilizing high-resolution ILES data. Effective Reynolds numbers based on the vorticity and dissipation rate, or the integral and inner-viscous length scales, are found to be the most self-consistent when compared to the expected phenomenology andmore » wind tunnel experiments.« less

Computing the Partition Function for Kinetically Trapped RNA Secondary Structures

PubMed Central

Lorenz, William A.; Clote, Peter

2011-01-01

An RNA secondary structure is locally optimal if there is no lower energy structure that can be obtained by the addition or removal of a single base pair, where energy is defined according to the widely accepted Turner nearest neighbor model. Locally optimal structures form kinetic traps, since any evolution away from a locally optimal structure must involve energetically unfavorable folding steps. Here, we present a novel, efficient algorithm to compute the partition function over all locally optimal secondary structures of a given RNA sequence. Our software, RNAlocopt runs in time and space. Additionally, RNAlocopt samples a user-specified number of structures from the Boltzmann subensemble of all locally optimal structures. We apply RNAlocopt to show that (1) the number of locally optimal structures is far fewer than the total number of structures – indeed, the number of locally optimal structures approximately equal to the square root of the number of all structures, (2) the structural diversity of this subensemble may be either similar to or quite different from the structural diversity of the entire Boltzmann ensemble, a situation that depends on the type of input RNA, (3) the (modified) maximum expected accuracy structure, computed by taking into account base pairing frequencies of locally optimal structures, is a more accurate prediction of the native structure than other current thermodynamics-based methods. The software RNAlocopt constitutes a technical breakthrough in our study of the folding landscape for RNA secondary structures. For the first time, locally optimal structures (kinetic traps in the Turner energy model) can be rapidly generated for long RNA sequences, previously impossible with methods that involved exhaustive enumeration. Use of locally optimal structure leads to state-of-the-art secondary structure prediction, as benchmarked against methods involving the computation of minimum free energy and of maximum expected accuracy. Web server and source code available at http://bioinformatics.bc.edu/clotelab/RNAlocopt/. PMID:21297972

Significance of structural changes in proteins: expected errors in refined protein structures.

PubMed Central

Stroud, R. M.; Fauman, E. B.

1995-01-01

A quantitative expression key to evaluating significant structural differences or induced shifts between any two protein structures is derived. Because crystallography leads to reports of a single (or sometimes dual) position for each atom, the significance of any structural change based on comparison of two structures depends critically on knowing the expected precision of each median atomic position reported, and on extracting it for each atom, from the information provided in the Protein Data Bank and in the publication. The differences between structures of protein molecules that should be identical, and that are normally distributed, indicating that they are not affected by crystal contacts, were analyzed with respect to many potential indicators of structure precision, so as to extract, essentially by "machine learning" principles, a generally applicable expression involving the highest correlates. Eighteen refined crystal structures from the Protein Data Bank, in which there are multiple molecules in the crystallographic asymmetric unit, were selected and compared. The thermal B factor, the connectivity of the atom, and the ratio of the number of reflections to the number of atoms used in refinement correlate best with the magnitude of the positional differences between regions of the structures that otherwise would be expected to be the same. These results are embodied in a six-parameter equation that can be applied to any crystallographically refined structure to estimate the expected uncertainty in position of each atom. Structure change in a macromolecule can thus be referenced to the expected uncertainty in atomic position as reflected in the variance between otherwise identical structures with the observed values of correlated parameters. PMID:8563637

Distinct and Overlapping Brain Areas Engaged during Value-Based, Mathematical, and Emotional Decision Processing

PubMed Central

Hsu, Chun-Wei; Goh, Joshua O. S.

2016-01-01

When comparing between the values of different choices, human beings can rely on either more cognitive processes, such as using mathematical computation, or more affective processes, such as using emotion. However, the neural correlates of how these two types of processes operate during value-based decision-making remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the extent to which neural regions engaged during value-based decision-making overlap with those engaged during mathematical and emotional processing in a within-subject manner. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment, participants viewed stimuli that always consisted of numbers and emotional faces that depicted two choices. Across tasks, participants decided between the two choices based on the expected value of the numbers, a mathematical result of the numbers, or the emotional face stimuli. We found that all three tasks commonly involved various cortical areas including frontal, parietal, motor, somatosensory, and visual regions. Critically, the mathematical task shared common areas with the value but not emotion task in bilateral striatum. Although the emotion task overlapped with the value task in parietal, motor, and sensory areas, the mathematical task also evoked responses in other areas within these same cortical structures. Minimal areas were uniquely engaged for the value task apart from the other two tasks. The emotion task elicited a more expansive area of neural activity whereas value and mathematical task responses were in more focal regions. Whole-brain spatial correlation analysis showed that valuative processing engaged functional brain responses more similarly to mathematical processing than emotional processing. While decisions on expected value entail both mathematical and emotional processing regions, mathematical processes have a more prominent contribution particularly in subcortical processes. PMID:27375466

Distinct and Overlapping Brain Areas Engaged during Value-Based, Mathematical, and Emotional Decision Processing.

PubMed

Hsu, Chun-Wei; Goh, Joshua O S

2016-01-01

When comparing between the values of different choices, human beings can rely on either more cognitive processes, such as using mathematical computation, or more affective processes, such as using emotion. However, the neural correlates of how these two types of processes operate during value-based decision-making remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the extent to which neural regions engaged during value-based decision-making overlap with those engaged during mathematical and emotional processing in a within-subject manner. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment, participants viewed stimuli that always consisted of numbers and emotional faces that depicted two choices. Across tasks, participants decided between the two choices based on the expected value of the numbers, a mathematical result of the numbers, or the emotional face stimuli. We found that all three tasks commonly involved various cortical areas including frontal, parietal, motor, somatosensory, and visual regions. Critically, the mathematical task shared common areas with the value but not emotion task in bilateral striatum. Although the emotion task overlapped with the value task in parietal, motor, and sensory areas, the mathematical task also evoked responses in other areas within these same cortical structures. Minimal areas were uniquely engaged for the value task apart from the other two tasks. The emotion task elicited a more expansive area of neural activity whereas value and mathematical task responses were in more focal regions. Whole-brain spatial correlation analysis showed that valuative processing engaged functional brain responses more similarly to mathematical processing than emotional processing. While decisions on expected value entail both mathematical and emotional processing regions, mathematical processes have a more prominent contribution particularly in subcortical processes.

Expected Number of Passes in a Binary Search Scheme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenenbein, Aaron

1974-01-01

The binary search scheme is a method of finding a particular file from a set of ordered files stored in a computer. In this article an exact expression for the expected number of passes required to find a file is derived. (Author)

Potential defoliation of trees by outbreak populations of gypsy moth in the Chicago area

Treesearch

David W. Onstad; David J. Nowak; Michael R. Jeffords

1997-01-01

The gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, will soon become established in much of the Midwest. If an outbreak with extremely high population levels of this serious defoliator is allowed to occur in the Chicago area, what kind of damage can be expected? A model for defoliation, refoliation and mortality was developed based on the number of trees and...

Innovation and Persistence: The Evaluation of the C.U.P.L.E. Studio Physics Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Marie A.; O'Donnell, Angela M.

The last decade has seen the development of a number of computer-based interactive physics programs at the university level. Set in a cognitive apprenticeship framework, such programs view the instructor as a mentor, and the essential learning constructed in a collaborative process. It is expected that such programs, grounded as they are in…

Educating and Training the Workforce to Work with People with Dementia: Two Projects from the United Kingdom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mustafa, Nageen; Tsaroucha, Anna; Le Mesurier, Nick; Benbow, Susan Mary; Kingston, Paul

2013-01-01

Educating and training the dementia workforce is a global challenge, given the expected increasing number of people living with dementia across the world as the population ages. Two projects from the UK (one regionally and one locality based) investigated courses available to the workforce and mapped the content of identified courses against a…

Disability in U. S. Medical Education: Disparities, Programmes and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santoro, Jonathan D.; Yedla, Manisha; Lazzareschi, Daniel V.; Whitgob, Emily E.

2017-01-01

As of 2010, 19% of the US population lives with a disability, and with the average lifespan of persons with disability increasing, this number is expected to rise. This has prompted the identification of a need for disability-based education by the US Institute of Medicine, the Surgeon General of the United States, the Association of American…

48 CFR 22.1012-2 - Wage determinations based on collective bargaining agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Division by telephone to determine when the wage determination can be expected. (The telephone number is provided on the e98 website.) If the Department of Labor is unable to provide the wage determination by the... the WDOL website (see 22.1008-2(d)(2)). [71 FR 36935, June 28, 2006, as amended at 79 FR 24207, Apr...

Females' sampling strategy to comparatively evaluate prospective mates in the peacock blenny Salaria pavo.

PubMed

Locatello, Lisa; Rasotto, Maria B

2017-08-01

Emerging evidence suggests the occurrence of comparative decision-making processes in mate choice, questioning the traditional idea of female choice based on rules of absolute preference. In such a scenario, females are expected to use a typical best-of-n sampling strategy, being able to recall previous sampled males based on memory of their quality and location. Accordingly, the quality of preferred mate is expected to be unrelated to both the number and the sequence of female visits. We found support for these predictions in the peacock blenny, Salaria pavo, a fish where females have the opportunity to evaluate the attractiveness of many males in a short time period and in a restricted spatial range. Indeed, even considering the variability in preference among females, most of them returned to previous sampled males for further evaluations; thus, the preferred male did not represent the last one in the sequence of visited males. Moreover, there was no relationship between the attractiveness of the preferred male and the number of further visits assigned to the other males. Our results suggest the occurrence of a best-of-n mate sampling strategy in the peacock blenny.

Fast Bayesian experimental design: Laplace-based importance sampling for the expected information gain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Joakim; Dia, Ben Mansour; Espath, Luis F. R.; Long, Quan; Tempone, Raúl

2018-06-01

In calculating expected information gain in optimal Bayesian experimental design, the computation of the inner loop in the classical double-loop Monte Carlo requires a large number of samples and suffers from underflow if the number of samples is small. These drawbacks can be avoided by using an importance sampling approach. We present a computationally efficient method for optimal Bayesian experimental design that introduces importance sampling based on the Laplace method to the inner loop. We derive the optimal values for the method parameters in which the average computational cost is minimized according to the desired error tolerance. We use three numerical examples to demonstrate the computational efficiency of our method compared with the classical double-loop Monte Carlo, and a more recent single-loop Monte Carlo method that uses the Laplace method as an approximation of the return value of the inner loop. The first example is a scalar problem that is linear in the uncertain parameter. The second example is a nonlinear scalar problem. The third example deals with the optimal sensor placement for an electrical impedance tomography experiment to recover the fiber orientation in laminate composites.

Females' sampling strategy to comparatively evaluate prospective mates in the peacock blenny Salaria pavo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Locatello, Lisa; Rasotto, Maria B.

2017-08-01

Emerging evidence suggests the occurrence of comparative decision-making processes in mate choice, questioning the traditional idea of female choice based on rules of absolute preference. In such a scenario, females are expected to use a typical best-of- n sampling strategy, being able to recall previous sampled males based on memory of their quality and location. Accordingly, the quality of preferred mate is expected to be unrelated to both the number and the sequence of female visits. We found support for these predictions in the peacock blenny, Salaria pavo, a fish where females have the opportunity to evaluate the attractiveness of many males in a short time period and in a restricted spatial range. Indeed, even considering the variability in preference among females, most of them returned to previous sampled males for further evaluations; thus, the preferred male did not represent the last one in the sequence of visited males. Moreover, there was no relationship between the attractiveness of the preferred male and the number of further visits assigned to the other males. Our results suggest the occurrence of a best-of- n mate sampling strategy in the peacock blenny.

So many migraines, so few subspecialists: analysis of the geographic location of United Council for Neurologic Subspecialties (UCNS) certified headache subspecialists compared to United States headache demographics.

PubMed

Mauser, Emily D; Rosen, Noah L

2014-09-01

To evaluate the geographic location of the United Council for Neurologic Subspecialties (UCNS)-certified headache subspecialists as compared with ratios of expected migraine and chronic migraine populations in the United States. The UCNS is a professional medical organization that accredits fellowship programs and certifies physicians who demonstrate competence in various neurologic subspecialties, including headache medicine. There are a limited number of UCNS-certified headache subspecialists currently practicing in the United States. All of the UCNS-certified headache subspecialists were geographically located and compared with demographic data about state populations obtained from the U.S. Census. The expected migraine and chronic migraine populations were calculated for each state based on recently published epidemiologic data. Ratios of UCNS-certified headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations were compared for each state. These data were then organized by U.S. Census region and division. As of the 2012 examination cycle, 416 UCNS-certified headache subspecialists are currently practicing in the United States. The states with the highest number of headache subspecialists include New York, California, Ohio, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Six states have zero headache subspecialists, eight states have one headache subspecialist, and five states have two headache subspecialists. As per the U.S. Census, the total U.S. population for ages 12 years and older is 259,908,563. The total expected migraine population (11.79% of the general population) for ages 12 years and older is 30,594,362. The total expected chronic migraine population (0.91% of the general population) for ages 12 years and older is 2,361,397. The states with the best ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations include the District of Columbia, New Hampshire, New York, and Nebraska. Besides states with zero headache subspecialists, the states with the worst ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations include Oregon, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Kansas. When organized by U.S. Census regions, the Northeast has the best ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations, while the West has the worst ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations. In terms of U.S. Census divisions, the Middle Atlantic has the best ratios of headache subspecialists to expected migraine and chronic migraine populations, while the East South Central has the worst ratios of expected migraine and chronic migraine populations. There is a disproportionately small number of UCNS-certified headache subspecialists compared with the extensive expected migraine and chronic migraine populations in the United States. More UCNS-accredited fellowship programs and more UCNS-certified headache subspecialists are needed in order to ameliorate this disparity. © 2014 American Headache Society.

The State-of-the-Art in Natural Language Understanding.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-28

driven text analysis. If we know a story is about a restaurant, we expect that we may encounter a waitress, menu, table, a bill, food , and other... Pront aids for Data Bases During the 70’s a number of natural language data base front ends apreared: LUNPLR Woods et al 19721 has already been briefly...like to loo.< it inr. ui4 : 3D ’-- "-: handling of novel language, especially netaphor; az-I i,?i nn rti inriq, -mlerstanding systems: the handling of

The roles of federal legislation and evolving health care systems in promoting medical-dental collaboration.

PubMed

Edelstein, Burton L

2014-01-01

Recent federal health care legislation contains explicit and implicit drivers for medical-dental collaboration. These laws implicitly promote health care evolution through value-based financing, "big data" and health information technology, increased number of care providers and a more holistic approach. Additional changes--practice aggregation, consumerism and population health perspectives--may also influence dental care. While dentistry will likely lag behind medicine toward value-based and accountable care organizations, dentists will be affected by changing consumer expectations.

Why They Fly: An Expectancy-Based Analysis of the Factors that Motivate Commissioned Army Aviators to Gain Flying Experience

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-15

Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be... Moroze and Snow (1999) controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) accidents, where the crew unintentionally flies the aircraft into the earth or a man...number of CFIT accidents for the pilots with more flight hours was based on the behavior patterns that result from experience ( Moroze & Snow, 1999

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities.

PubMed

Anderson, G Brooke; Oleson, Keith W; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D

2018-02-01

Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario- going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.

Near real-time vaccine safety surveillance with partially accrued data.

PubMed

Greene, Sharon K; Kulldorff, Martin; Yin, Ruihua; Yih, W Katherine; Lieu, Tracy A; Weintraub, Eric S; Lee, Grace M

2011-06-01

The Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) Project conducts near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using sequential analytic methods. Timely surveillance is critical in identifying potential safety problems and preventing additional exposure before most vaccines are administered. For vaccines that are administered during a short period, such as influenza vaccines, timeliness can be improved by undertaking analyses while risk windows following vaccination are ongoing and by accommodating predictable and unpredictable data accrual delays. We describe practical solutions to these challenges, which were adopted by the VSD Project during pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccine safety surveillance in 2009/2010. Adjustments were made to two sequential analytic approaches. The Poisson-based approach compared the number of pre-defined adverse events observed following vaccination with the number expected using historical data. The expected number was adjusted for the proportion of the risk window elapsed and the proportion of inpatient data estimated to have accrued. The binomial-based approach used a self-controlled design, comparing the observed numbers of events in risk versus comparison windows. Events were included in analysis only if they occurred during a week that had already passed for both windows. Analyzing data before risk windows fully elapsed improved the timeliness of safety surveillance. Adjustments for data accrual lags were tailored to each data source and avoided biasing analyses away from detecting a potential safety problem, particularly early during surveillance. The timeliness of vaccine and drug safety surveillance can be improved by properly accounting for partially elapsed windows and data accrual delays. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Heart failure in numbers: Estimates for the 21st century in Portugal.

PubMed

Fonseca, Cândida; Brás, Daniel; Araújo, Inês; Ceia, Fátima

2018-02-01

Heart failure is a major public health problem that affects a large number of individuals and is associated with high mortality and morbidity. This study aims to estimate the probable scenario for HF prevalence and its consequences in the short-, medium- and long-term in Portugal. This assessment is based on the EPICA (Epidemiology of Heart Failure and Learning) project, which was designed to estimate the prevalence of chronic heart failure in mainland Portugal in 1998. Estimates of heart failure prevalence were performed for individuals aged over 25 years, distributed by age group and gender, based on data from the 2011 Census by Statistics Portugal. The expected demographic changes, particularly the marked aging of the population, mean that a large number of Portuguese will likely be affected by this syndrome. Assuming that current clinical practices are maintained, the prevalence of heart failure in mainland Portugal will increase by 30% by 2035 and by 33% by 2060, compared to 2011, resulting in 479 921 and 494 191 affected individuals, respectively. In addition to the large number of heart failure patients expected, it is estimated that the hospitalizations and mortality associated with this syndrome will significantly increase its economic impact. Therefore, it is extremely important to raise awareness of this syndrome, as this will favor diagnosis and early referral of patients, facilitating better management of heart failure and helping to decrease the burden it imposes on Portugal. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Clients' Expected Number of Counseling Sessions, Treatment Effectiveness, and Termination Status: Using Empirical Evidence to Inform Session Limit Policies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Jesse; Smith, Amanda; Rodolfa, Emil

2009-01-01

Many counseling centers have session limits to accommodate the increasing number of clients who seek treatment. The current study explored clients' expectations for the number of sessions over the course of one year at a large university counseling center. In contrast to previous research that has suggested clients want ten or fewer sessions, our…

An Image-Based Algorithm for Precise and Accurate High Throughput Assessment of Drug Activity against the Human Parasite Trypanosoma cruzi

PubMed Central

Moraes, Carolina Borsoi; Yang, Gyongseon; Kang, Myungjoo; Freitas-Junior, Lucio H.; Hansen, Michael A. E.

2014-01-01

We present a customized high content (image-based) and high throughput screening algorithm for the quantification of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in host cells. Based solely on DNA staining and single-channel images, the algorithm precisely segments and identifies the nuclei and cytoplasm of mammalian host cells as well as the intracellular parasites infecting the cells. The algorithm outputs statistical parameters including the total number of cells, number of infected cells and the total number of parasites per image, the average number of parasites per infected cell, and the infection ratio (defined as the number of infected cells divided by the total number of cells). Accurate and precise estimation of these parameters allow for both quantification of compound activity against parasites, as well as the compound cytotoxicity, thus eliminating the need for an additional toxicity-assay, hereby reducing screening costs significantly. We validate the performance of the algorithm using two known drugs against T.cruzi: Benznidazole and Nifurtimox. Also, we have checked the performance of the cell detection with manual inspection of the images. Finally, from the titration of the two compounds, we confirm that the algorithm provides the expected half maximal effective concentration (EC50) of the anti-T. cruzi activity. PMID:24503652

Effects induced by gamma-irradiation and thermal treatment on the infrared spectra of ferrocene in its disordered state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaffar, M. A.; Abd-Elrahman, M. I.

2004-10-01

Lattice, rotation and intramolecular vibrations of ferrocene, Fe(C5H5)(2), crystallites of the C-2h(5) factor group in the disordered phase are calculated using the correlation theorem based on group theory. The correlation between the species of the C-1 site symmetry occupied by cyclopentadienyl molecules and those of the factor group C-2h, of the crystal are calculated. The number of lattice vibrations of the cyclopentadienyl molecules is found to be 12. with active modes in Raman and infrared (IR) spectra. The same number of rotations for the cyclopentadienyl molecules is expected to be allowed in both spectra. The active number of intramolecular vibrations for the cyclopentadienyl molecules having D-5 molecular symmetry is expected to be 80 vibrations in both the Raman and the IR spectra. The effect of gamma-irradiation with different doses and heat treatment at different temperatures on the IR spectra of ferrocene in the energy range 4000-200 cm(-1) is discussed. A number of bands continuously shifted their position, and a decrease in intensity with increasing gamma-dose is observed. New bands appeared in this spectral region for different annealing temperatures and different gamma-doses. These changes are discussed in terms of intermolecular interactions between molecules within the unit cell.

Expected Number of Fixed Points in Boolean Networks with Arbitrary Topology.

PubMed

Mori, Fumito; Mochizuki, Atsushi

2017-07-14

Boolean network models describe genetic, neural, and social dynamics in complex networks, where the dynamics depend generally on network topology. Fixed points in a genetic regulatory network are typically considered to correspond to cell types in an organism. We prove that the expected number of fixed points in a Boolean network, with Boolean functions drawn from probability distributions that are not required to be uniform or identical, is one, and is independent of network topology if only a feedback arc set satisfies a stochastic neutrality condition. We also demonstrate that the expected number is increased by the predominance of positive feedback in a cycle.

1996-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries.

PubMed

Shaw, C

1998-01-01

The 1996-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 58.8 million in 1996 to over 62 million by 2021. The population will become gradually older with the mean age expected to rise from 38.4 years in 1996 to nearly 42 years by 2021. The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall by 1.0 million (9 per cent) by 2021, while the number aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 2.7 million (29 per cent). Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2031 and then gradually start to fall.

A Framework for the Development of Automatic DFA Method to Minimize the Number of Components and Assembly Reorientations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfadhlani; Samadhi, T. M. A. Ari; Ma’ruf, Anas; Setiasyah Toha, Isa

2018-03-01

Assembly is a part of manufacturing processes that must be considered at the product design stage. Design for Assembly (DFA) is a method to evaluate product design in order to make it simpler, easier and quicker to assemble, so that assembly cost is reduced. This article discusses a framework for developing a computer-based DFA method. The method is expected to aid product designer to extract data, evaluate assembly process, and provide recommendation for the product design improvement. These three things are desirable to be performed without interactive process or user intervention, so product design evaluation process could be done automatically. Input for the proposed framework is a 3D solid engineering drawing. Product design evaluation is performed by: minimizing the number of components; generating assembly sequence alternatives; selecting the best assembly sequence based on the minimum number of assembly reorientations; and providing suggestion for design improvement.

What do Afghans Want from the Police? Views from Helmand Province

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

AUTHOR(S) Norman, Catherine 5d PROJECT NUMBER R0148 5e. TASK NUMBER W053 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS...ES) Center for Naval Analyses 4825 Mark Center Drive Alexandria, VA 22311-1850 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER D0026181.A2 9... organizations are expected to trump local values. For instance, when a person joins a city police force, he or she is expected to sub- ordinate the

Distribution of 45S rDNA in Modern Rose Cultivars (Rosa hybrida), Rosa rugosa, and Their Interspecific Hybrids Revealed by Fluorescence in situ Hybridization.

PubMed

Ding, Xiao-Liu; Xu, Ting-Liang; Wang, Jing; Luo, Le; Yu, Chao; Dong, Gui-Min; Pan, Hui-Tang; Zhang, Qi-Xiang

2016-01-01

To elucidate the evolutionary dynamics of the location and number of rDNA loci in the process of polyploidization in the genus Rosa, we examined 45S rDNA sites in the chromosomes of 6 modern rose cultivars (R. hybrida), 5 R. rugosa cultivars, and 20 hybrid progenies by fluorescence in situ hybridization. Variation in the number of rDNA sites in parents and their interspecific hybrids was detected. As expected, 4 rDNA sites were observed in the genomes of 4 modern rose cultivars, while 3 hybridization sites were observed in the 2 others. Two expected rDNA sites were found in 2 R. rugosa cultivars, while in the other 3 R. rugosa cultivars 4 sites were present. Among the 20 R. hybrida × R. rugosa offspring, 13 carried the expected number of rDNA sites, and 1 had 6 hybridization sites, which exceeded the expected number by far. The other 6 offspring had either 2 or 3 hybridization sites, which was less than expected. Differences in the number of rDNA loci were observed in interspecific offspring, indicating that rDNA loci exhibit instability after distant hybridization events. Abnormal chromosome pairing may be the main factor explaining the variation in rDNA sites during polyploidization. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A numerical study of transient heat and mass transfer in crystal growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Samuel Bang-Moo

1987-01-01

A numerical analysis of transient heat and solute transport across a rectangular cavity is performed. Five nonlinear partial differential equations which govern the conservation of mass, momentum, energy and solute concentration related to crystal growth in solution, are simultaneously integrated by a numerical method based on the SIMPLE algorithm. Numerical results showed that the flow, temperature and solute fields are dependent on thermal and solutal Grashoff number, Prandtl number, Schmidt number and aspect ratio. The average Nusselt and Sherwood numbers evaluated at the center of the cavity decrease markedly when the solutal buoyancy force acts in the opposite direction to the thermal buoyancy force. When the solutal and thermal buoyancy forces act in the same direction, however, Sherwood number increases significantly and yet Nusselt number decreases. Overall effects of convection on the crystal growth are seen to be an enhancement of growth rate as expected but with highly nonuniform spatial growth variations.

Five-month-old infants have expectations for the accumulation of nonsolid substances.

PubMed

Anderson, Erin M; Hespos, Susan J; Rips, Lance J

2018-06-01

Infants fail to represent quantities of non-cohesive substances in paradigms where they succeed with solid objects. Some investigators have interpreted these results as evidence that infants do not yet have representations for substances. More recent research, however, shows that 5-month-old infants expect objects and substances to behave and interact in different ways. In the present experiments, we test whether infants have expectations for substances when the outcomes are not simply the opposite of those for objects. In Experiment 1, we find that 5-month-old infants expect that when a cup of sand pours behind a screen, it will accumulate in just one pile rather than two. Similarly, infants expect that when two cups of sand pour in separate streams, two distinct piles will accumulate rather than one. Infants look significantly longer at outcomes with an inconsistent number of piles, providing evidence that infants have expectations for how sand accumulates. To test whether the number of cups or the number of pours guided expectations about accumulation, Experiment 2 placed these cues in conflict. This resulted in chance performance, suggesting that, for infants to build expectations about these outcomes, they need both cues (cup and pour) to converge. These findings offer insight into the nature of infants' representations for non-cohesive substances like sand. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individualized Statin Benefit for Determining Statin Eligibility in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Thanassoulis, George; Williams, Ken; Altobelli, Kathleen Kimler; Pencina, Michael J; Cannon, Christopher P; Sniderman, Allan D

2016-04-19

Current guidelines recommend statins in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease on the basis of predicted cardiovascular risk without directly considering the expected benefits of statin therapy based on the available randomized, controlled trial evidence. We included 2134 participants representing 71.8 million American residents potentially eligible for statins in primary prevention from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for the years 2005 to 2010. We compared statin eligibilities using 2 separate approaches: a 10-year risk-based approach (≥7.5% 10-year risk) and an individualized benefit approach (ie, based on predicted absolute risk reduction over 10 years [ARR10] ≥2.3% from randomized, controlled trial data). A risk-based approach led to the eligibility of 15.0 million (95% confidence interval, 12.7-17.3 million) Americans, whereas a benefit-based approach identified 24.6 million (95% confidence interval, 21.0-28.1 million). The corresponding numbers needed to treat over 10 years were 21 (range, 9-44) and 25 (range, 9-44). The benefit-based approach identified 9.5 million lower-risk (<7.5% 10-year risk) Americans not currently eligible for statin treatment who had the same or greater expected benefit from statins (≥2.3% ARR10) compared with higher-risk individuals. This lower-risk/acceptable-benefit group includes younger individuals (mean age, 55.2 versus 62.5 years; P<0.001 for benefit based versus risk based) with higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (140 versus133 mg/dL; P=0.01). Statin treatment in this group would be expected to prevent an additional 266 508 cardiovascular events over 10 years. An individualized statin benefit approach can identify lower-risk individuals who have equal or greater expected benefit from statins in primary prevention compared with higher-risk individuals. This approach may help develop guideline recommendations that better identify individuals who meaningfully benefit from statin therapy. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Birth Expectations of U.S. Women Aged 15-44.

PubMed

Daugherty, Jill; Martinez, Gladys

2016-10-01

Data from the National Survey of Family Growth •Among U.S. women aged 15-44 in 2013-2015, 50% expected to have a child in the future. •In 2013-2015, differences were seen by age in women's expectations to have a child in the future, regardless of the number of biological children they have had. •In 2013-2015, women on average expected to have 2.2 children in their lifetime. This estimate has decreased since 2002. •A smaller percentage of never married, not cohabiting women expected to have a child within 2 years from the time of interview (5%) compared with currently married (19%) and currently cohabiting (16%) women. •Eighty-two percent of women who already had two or more children did not expect to have more children in the future. Birth expectations have been shown to be related to sexual activity, contraceptive use, and fertility (1-3). While most U.S. women believe that having two children is ideal (4), this varies by sociodemographic characteristics. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), this report describes women's birth expectations, number of children expected, and when they expected their next child to be born. Data are shown by age, marital or cohabiting status, and number of children. Selected trends are also shown using NSFG data from 2002, 2006-2010, 2011-2013, and 2013-2015. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

PubMed

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian connectivity-based approach to constructing probabilistic gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaobo; Wang, Xiaodong; Pal, Ranadip; Ivanov, Ivan; Bittner, Michael; Dougherty, Edward R

2004-11-22

We have hypothesized that the construction of transcriptional regulatory networks using a method that optimizes connectivity would lead to regulation consistent with biological expectations. A key expectation is that the hypothetical networks should produce a few, very strong attractors, highly similar to the original observations, mimicking biological state stability and determinism. Another central expectation is that, since it is expected that the biological control is distributed and mutually reinforcing, interpretation of the observations should lead to a very small number of connection schemes. We propose a fully Bayesian approach to constructing probabilistic gene regulatory networks (PGRNs) that emphasizes network topology. The method computes the possible parent sets of each gene, the corresponding predictors and the associated probabilities based on a nonlinear perceptron model, using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, and an MCMC method is employed to search the network configurations to find those with the highest Bayesian scores to construct the PGRN. The Bayesian method has been used to construct a PGRN based on the observed behavior of a set of genes whose expression patterns vary across a set of melanoma samples exhibiting two very different phenotypes with respect to cell motility and invasiveness. Key biological features have been faithfully reflected in the model. Its steady-state distribution contains attractors that are either identical or very similar to the states observed in the data, and many of the attractors are singletons, which mimics the biological propensity to stably occupy a given state. Most interestingly, the connectivity rules for the most optimal generated networks constituting the PGRN are remarkably similar, as would be expected for a network operating on a distributed basis, with strong interactions between the components.

Predictive models for fish assemblages in eastern USA streams: implications for assessing biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meador, Michael R.; Carlisle, Daren M.

2009-01-01

Management and conservation of aquatic systems require the ability to assess biological conditions and identify changes in biodiversity. Predictive models for fish assemblages were constructed to assess biological condition and changes in biodiversity for streams sampled in the eastern United States as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Separate predictive models were developed for northern and southern regions. Reference sites were designated using land cover and local professional judgment. Taxonomic completeness was quantified based on the ratio of the number of observed native fish species expected to occur to the number of expected native fish species. Models for both regions accurately predicted fish species composition at reference sites with relatively high precision and low bias. In general, species that occurred less frequently than expected (decreasers) tended to prefer riffle areas and larger substrates, such as gravel and cobble, whereas increaser species (occurring more frequently than expected) tended to prefer pools, backwater areas, and vegetated and sand substrates. In the north, the percentage of species identified as increasers and the percentage identified as decreasers were equal, whereas in the south nearly two-thirds of the species examined were identified as decreasers. Predictive models of fish species can provide a standardized indicator for consistent assessments of biological condition at varying spatial scales and critical information for an improved understanding of fish species that are potentially at risk of loss with changing water quality conditions.

[Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists in chronic kidney disease - pros and cons].

PubMed

Jędras, Mirosław; Filipowicz, Ewa

2017-01-01

Aldosterone takes part in the regulation of body fluid volume, blood pressure and kalemia. In a number of pathological conditions, including chronic kidney disease (CKD), secondary hyperaldosteronism occurs, leading to development of edema, hypervolemia and hypertension. Aldosterone has also a proinflammatory action, leading to heart and blood vessels damage, and is an independent risk factor of death. Some of the research conducted to confirm the expected benefits of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) therapy in CKD patients did not yield positive results, probably due to "aldosterone escape". Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) are being introduced also in the treatment of CKD patients, although the risk of developing hyperkalemia exists. A number of papers suggest a positive influence of MRA on slowing down the progression of renal failure, reduction of cardiovascular risk, and decreasing mortality, with relative safety of treatment, however the data are based on small and heterogenous groups of patients, therefore conclusive information is expected from large trials which are currently being conducted (BARACK D, ALCHEMIST).

Wavelength routing beyond the standard graph coloring approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blankenhorn, Thomas

2004-04-01

When lightpaths are routed in the planning stage of transparent optical networks, the textbook approach is to use algorithms that try to minimize the overall number of wavelengths used in the . We demonstrate that this method cannot be expected to minimize actual costs when the marginal cost of instlling more wavelengths is a declining function of the number of wavelengths already installed, as is frequently the case. We further demonstrate how cost optimization can theoretically be improved with algorithms based on Prim"s algorithm. Finally, we test this theory with simulaion on a series of actual network topologies, which confirm the theoretical analysis.

A Survey of Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Testability Software Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-04-01

designs in terms of their contributions toward forced mission termination and vehicle or function loss . Includes the ability to treat failure modes of...ABSTRACT: Inputs: MTBFs, MTTRs, support equipment costs, equipment weights and costs, available targets, military occupational specialty skill level and...US Army CECOM NAME: SPARECOST ABSTRACT: Calculates expected number of failures and performs spares holding optimization based on cost, weight , or

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Event Rates of Gravitational Waves from merging Intermediate mass Black Holes: based on a Runaway Path to a SMBH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinkai, Hisaaki

2018-01-01

Based on a dynamical formation model of a supermassive black hole (SMBH), we estimate the expected observational profile of gravitational wave at ground-based detectors, such as KAGRA or advanced LIGO/VIRGO. Noting that the second generation of detectors have enough sensitivity from 10 Hz and up, we are able to detect the ring-down gravitational wave of a BH with the mass M < 2 × 103M⊙. This enables us to check the sequence of BH mergers to SMBHs via intermediate-mass BHs. We estimate the number density of galaxies from the halo formation model and estimate the number of BH mergers from the giant molecular cloud model assuming hierarchical growth of merged cores. At the designed KAGRA (and/or advanced LIGO/VIRGO), we find that the BH merger of its total mass M ˜ 60M⊙ is at the peak of the expected mass distribution. With its signal-to-noise ratio ρ = 10(30), we estimate the event rate R ˜ 200(20) per year in the most optimistic case, and we also find that BH mergers in the range M < 150M⊙ are R > 1 per year for ρ = 10. Thus, if we observe a BH with more than 100M⊙ in future gravitational-wave observations, our model naturally explains its source.

Do lions Panthera leo actively select prey or do prey preferences simply reflect chance responses via evolutionary adaptations to optimal foraging?

PubMed

Hayward, Matt W; Hayward, Gina J; Tambling, Craig J; Kerley, Graham I H

2011-01-01

Research on coursing predators has revealed that actions throughout the predatory behavioral sequence (using encounter rate, hunting rate, and kill rate as proxy measures of decisions) drive observed prey preferences. We tested whether similar actions drive the observed prey preferences of a stalking predator, the African lion Panthera leo. We conducted two 96 hour, continuous follows of lions in Addo Elephant National Park seasonally from December 2003 until November 2005 (16 follows), and compared prey encounter rate with prey abundance, hunt rate with prey encounter rate, and kill rate with prey hunt rate for the major prey species in Addo using Jacobs' electivity index. We found that lions encountered preferred prey species far more frequently than expected based on their abundance, and they hunted these species more frequently than expected based on this higher encounter rate. Lions responded variably to non-preferred and avoided prey species throughout the predatory sequence, although they hunted avoided prey far less frequently than expected based on the number of encounters of them. We conclude that actions of lions throughout the predatory behavioural sequence, but particularly early on, drive the prey preferences that have been documented for this species. Once a hunt is initiated, evolutionary adaptations to the predator-prey interactions drive hunting success.

Gryphon: A Hybrid Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Platform for Infectious Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Bin; Wang, Jijun; McGowan, Michael; Vaidyanathan, Ganesh; Younger, Kristofer

In this paper we present Gryphon, a hybrid agent-based stochastic modeling and simulation platform developed for characterizing the geographic spread of infectious diseases and the effects of interventions. We study both local and non-local transmission dynamics of stochastic simulations based on the published parameters and data for SARS. The results suggest that the expected numbers of infections and the timeline of control strategies predicted by our stochastic model are in reasonably good agreement with previous studies. These preliminary results indicate that Gryphon is able to characterize other future infectious diseases and identify endangered regions in advance.

Indigenous Health and Human Rights: A Reflection on Law and Culture.

PubMed

Mazel, Odette

2018-04-18

In Australia, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples bear a greater burden of disease and have lower life expectancy than their non-Indigenous counterparts. These combined indicators are evidence of an entrenched health crisis in the Indigenous population that is linked to systemic disadvantage over many decades. In an effort to improve life expectancy and lessen the burden of disease, a number of strategies and national frameworks now embed a human rights-based approach to achieving health equality. This paper explores the application of human rights to Indigenous health and examines the inherent tensions that exist in engaging a system of law based on universal assumptions of the Enlightenment to advance Indigenous rights. What becomes apparent through this exploration is that the strategic approach of Indigenous peoples’ use of human rights, despite its genesis in a system of law that justified colonisation, has opened up opportunities to reframe fixed ideas of law and culture.

Indigenous Health and Human Rights: A Reflection on Law and Culture

PubMed Central

Mazel, Odette

2018-01-01

In Australia, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples bear a greater burden of disease and have lower life expectancy than their non-Indigenous counterparts. These combined indicators are evidence of an entrenched health crisis in the Indigenous population that is linked to systemic disadvantage over many decades. In an effort to improve life expectancy and lessen the burden of disease, a number of strategies and national frameworks now embed a human rights-based approach to achieving health equality. This paper explores the application of human rights to Indigenous health and examines the inherent tensions that exist in engaging a system of law based on universal assumptions of the Enlightenment to advance Indigenous rights. What becomes apparent through this exploration is that the strategic approach of Indigenous peoples’ use of human rights, despite its genesis in a system of law that justified colonisation, has opened up opportunities to reframe fixed ideas of law and culture. PMID:29670026

Rationing of medical care: Rules of rescue, cost-effectiveness, and the Oregon plan.

PubMed

Lamb, Emmet J

2004-06-01

Doctors who deal with individual patients fail to avoid interventions with minimal expected benefits. This is one reason that the United States spends more on health care services than any of 28 other industrialized nations. Yet, our money has not bought us health; our infant mortality rate ranks 23rd, and our overall life expectancy rate ranks 20th among the 29 nations. Ours is the only nation without a national health system. Our job-based health insurance system has allowed the number of uninsured persons to reach 44 million, which is 18% of the nonelderly population. This article examines the role of such ethical concepts as beneficence, utilitarianism, and justice in the allocation of health care resources. It also examines the innovative Oregon Health Plan and its use of cost-effectiveness analysis for health care allocation that is based on league tables.

Maternal expectations about normal child development in 4 cultural groups.

PubMed

Pachter, L M; Dworkin, P H

1997-11-01

To determine whether expectations about normal infant and child development are different among mothers from 4 ethnocultural groups. Two hundred fifty-five mothers (90 Puerto Rican, 59 African American, 69 European American, 37 West Indian-Caribbean) whose children received health care at hospital-based pediatric clinics and private pediatricians' and family practitioners' offices. Verbally administered questionnaire that included 25 questions in which mothers were asked to give their opinions about the age at which a normal child should begin to accomplish standard developmental milestones. Responses (mean ages at which mothers expected children to attain the milestones) from each group were compared after controlling for age of mother, number of children, level of education, and socioeconomic status. Significant differences among ethnic groups' responses were seen for 9 of 25 developmental milestones. Differences were mainly seen among personal and social milestones, and Puerto Rican mothers tended to expect children to attain these milestones at a later age than did other mothers. No differences in responses were seen between Spanish- and English-speaking Puerto Rican mothers. European-American mothers expected children to take first steps and become toilet trained at a later age. Developmental expectations differ among mothers from different ethnocultural groups. Many of these differences can be explained by underlying cultural beliefs and values and specific child-rearing practices. Clinicians should ask about maternal expectations during child health visits to interpret mothers' concerns and opinions about their children's development.

Unseen Progenitors of Luminous High-z Quasars in the R h = ct Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatuzzo, Marco; Melia, Fulvio

2017-09-01

Quasars at high redshift provide direct information on the mass growth of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and, in turn, yield important clues about how the universe evolved since the first (Pop III) stars started forming. Yet even basic questions regarding the seeds of these objects and their growth mechanism remain unanswered. The anticipated launch of eROSITA and ATHENA is expected to facilitate observations of high-redshift quasars needed to resolve these issues. In this paper, we compare accretion-based SMBH growth in the concordance ΛCDM model with that in the alternative Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology known as the R h = ct universe. Previous work has shown that the timeline predicted by the latter can account for the origin and growth of the ≳109 M ⊙ highest redshift quasars better than that of the standard model. Here, we significantly advance this comparison by determining the soft X-ray flux that would be observed for Eddington-limited accretion growth as a function of redshift in both cosmologies. Our results indicate that a clear difference emerges between the two in terms of the number of detectable quasars at redshift z ≳ 7, raising the expectation that the next decade will provide the observational data needed to discriminate between these two models based on the number of detected high-redshift quasar progenitors. For example, while the upcoming ATHENA mission is expected to detect ˜0.16 (I.e., essentially zero) quasars at z ˜ 7 in R h = ct, it should detect ˜160 in ΛCDM—a quantitatively compelling difference.

China's emergence as the world's leading iron-ore-consuming country

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirk, W.S.

2004-01-01

China has become the leading iron ore consuming nation, and, based on recent steel production capacity increases and plans for more, its consumption will almost certainly to continue to grow. China's iron ore industry, however, faces a number of problems. China's iron ore is low-grade, expensive to process, and its mines are being depleted. For many Chinese steelmakers, particularly in the coastal regions, the delivered cost of domestic iron ore, is more than the delivered cost of foreign ore. Thus China's iron ore imports are expected to increase. As China's growth continues, it will almost certainly surpass Japan to become the leading iron ore importing country as well. Without China's increasing appetite for iron ore, the world iron ore market would be flat or declining. China's recent imports largely offset the slump in demand in North America and Europe. China is regarded by the iron ore industry as the growth sector for the next decade. Although Chinese imports are expected to continue their rapid increase and imports in other Asian countries are expected to continue growing, there appears to be enough greenfield and expansion projects to meet future demand for iron ore worldwide. Present suppliers of iron ore, Australia, Brazil, India, and South Africa, will probably be the chief beneficiaries of China's increasing consumption of iron ore. How long China can continue its extraordinary growth is the primary issue for the future of the iron ore industry. Based on the number and size of planned blast furnaces it appears that China's growth could continue for several more years. ?? 2004 Taylor and Francis.

Intracranial Procedures and Expected Frequency of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease.

PubMed

Abrams, Joseph Y; Maddox, Ryan A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Belay, Ermias D

2016-01-01

To assess the frequency and characteristics of intracranial procedures (ICPs) performed and the number of U.S. residents living with a history of ICP. These data are used to calculate the expected annual number of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) cases among U.S. residents with a history of ICP. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample provided data on the frequency and types of ICPs, and data from the National Center for Health Statistics was used to produce age-adjusted mortality rates. A model was constructed, which estimated long-term survival and sporadic CJD rates among ICP patients based on procedure type and age. There were an estimated 2,070,488 ICPs in the United States from 1998 to 2007, an average of over 200,000 per year. There were an estimated 2,023,726 U.S. residents in 2013 with a history of ICP in the previous 30 years. In 2013, there was expected to be 4.1 sporadic CJD cases (95% CI 1-8) among people with a history of ICP in the past 30 years. The considerable proportion of U.S. residents living with a history of ICP is important information for retrospective assessments of CJD or any other suspected long-term outcome of ICPs. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Mediating Mechanisms of Theory-Based Psychosocial Determinants on Behavioral Changes in a Middle School Obesity Risk Reduction Curriculum Intervention, Choice, Control, and Change.

PubMed

Gray, Heewon Lee; Contento, Isobel R; Koch, Pamela A; Noia, Jennifer Di

2016-10-01

A limited number of school-based intervention studies have explored mediating mechanisms of theory-based psychosocial variables on obesity risk behavior changes. The current study investigated how theory-based psychosocial determinants mediated changes in energy balance-related behaviors (EBRBs) among urban youth. A secondary analysis study was conducted using data from a cluster randomized controlled trial. Data from students at 10 middle schools in New York City (n = 1136) were used. The intervention, Choice, Control, and Change curriculum, was based on social cognitive and self-determination theories. Theory-based psychosocial determinants (goal intention, cognitive outcome expectations, affective outcome expectations, self-efficacy, perceived barriers, and autonomous motivation) and EBRBs were measured with self-report questionnaires. Mediation mechanisms were examined using structural equation modeling, Results: Mediating mechanisms for daily sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption and purposeful stair climbing were identified. Models with best fit indices (root mean square error of approximation = 0.039/0.045, normed fit index = 0.916/0.882; comparative fit index = 0.945/0.932; Tucker-Lewis index = 0.896/0.882, respectively) suggested that goal intention and reduced perceived barriers were significant proximal mediators for reducing SSB consumption among both boys and girls or increasing physical activity by stair climbing among boys. Cognitive outcome expectations, affective outcome expectations, self-efficacy, and autonomous motivation indirectly mediated behavioral changes through goal intention or perceived barriers (p < 0.05 to p < 0.001). The final models explained 25%-27% of behavioral outcome variances. Theory-based psychosocial determinants targeted in Choice, Control, and Change in fact mediated behavior changes in middle school students. Strategies targeting these mediators might benefit future success of behavioral interventions. Further studies are needed to determine other potential mediators of EBRBs in youth.

Dynamic relationships between body size, species richness, abundance, and energy use in a shallow marine epibenthic faunal community

PubMed Central

Labra, Fabio A; Hernández-Miranda, Eduardo; Quiñones, Renato A

2015-01-01

We study the temporal variation in the empirical relationships among body size (S), species richness (R), and abundance (A) in a shallow marine epibenthic faunal community in Coliumo Bay, Chile. We also extend previous analyses by calculating individual energy use (E) and test whether its bivariate and trivariate relationships with S and R are in agreement with expectations derived from the energetic equivalence rule. Carnivorous and scavenger species representing over 95% of sample abundance and biomass were studied. For each individual, body size (g) was measured and E was estimated following published allometric relationships. Data for each sample were tabulated into exponential body size bins, comparing species-averaged values with individual-based estimates which allow species to potentially occupy multiple size classes. For individual-based data, both the number of individuals and species across body size classes are fit by a Weibull function rather than by a power law scaling. Species richness is also a power law of the number of individuals. Energy use shows a piecewise scaling relationship with body size, with energetic equivalence holding true only for size classes above the modal abundance class. Species-based data showed either weak linear or no significant patterns, likely due to the decrease in the number of data points across body size classes. Hence, for individual-based size spectra, the SRA relationship seems to be general despite seasonal forcing and strong disturbances in Coliumo Bay. The unimodal abundance distribution results in a piecewise energy scaling relationship, with small individuals showing a positive scaling and large individuals showing energetic equivalence. Hence, strict energetic equivalence should not be expected for unimodal abundance distributions. On the other hand, while species-based data do not show unimodal SRA relationships, energy use across body size classes did not show significant trends, supporting energetic equivalence. PMID:25691966

PuLSE: Quality control and quantification of peptide sequences explored by phage display libraries.

PubMed

Shave, Steven; Mann, Stefan; Koszela, Joanna; Kerr, Alastair; Auer, Manfred

2018-01-01

The design of highly diverse phage display libraries is based on assumption that DNA bases are incorporated at similar rates within the randomized sequence. As library complexity increases and expected copy numbers of unique sequences decrease, the exploration of library space becomes sparser and the presence of truly random sequences becomes critical. We present the program PuLSE (Phage Library Sequence Evaluation) as a tool for assessing randomness and therefore diversity of phage display libraries. PuLSE runs on a collection of sequence reads in the fastq file format and generates tables profiling the library in terms of unique DNA sequence counts and positions, translated peptide sequences, and normalized 'expected' occurrences from base to residue codon frequencies. The output allows at-a-glance quantitative quality control of a phage library in terms of sequence coverage both at the DNA base and translated protein residue level, which has been missing from toolsets and literature. The open source program PuLSE is available in two formats, a C++ source code package for compilation and integration into existing bioinformatics pipelines and precompiled binaries for ease of use.

Weighted log-linear models for service delivery points in Ethiopia: a case of modern contraceptive users at health facilities.

PubMed

Workie, Demeke Lakew; Zike, Dereje Tesfaye; Fenta, Haile Mekonnen; Mekonnen, Mulusew Admasu

2018-05-10

Ethiopia is among countries with low contraceptive usage prevalence rate and resulted in high total fertility rate and unwanted pregnancy which intern affects the maternal and child health status. This study aimed to investigate the major factors that affect the number of modern contraceptive users at service delivery point in Ethiopia. The Performance Monitoring and Accountability2020/Ethiopia data collected between March and April 2016 at round-4 from 461 eligible service delivery points were in this study. The weighted log-linear negative binomial model applied to analyze the service delivery point's data. Fifty percent of service delivery points in Ethiopia given service for 61 modern contraceptive users with the interquartile range of 0.62. The expected log number of modern contraceptive users at rural was 1.05 (95% Wald CI: - 1.42 to - 0.68) lower than the expected log number of modern contraceptive users at urban. In addition, the expected log count of modern contraceptive users at others facility type was 0.58 lower than the expected log count of modern contraceptive users at the health center. The numbers of nurses/midwives were affecting the number of modern contraceptive users. Since, the incidence rate of modern contraceptive users increased by one due to an additional nurse in the delivery point. Among different factors considered in this study, residence, region, facility type, the number of days per week family planning offered, the number of nurses/midwives and number of medical assistants were to be associated with the number of modern contraceptive users. Thus, the Government of Ethiopia would take immediate steps to address causes of the number of modern contraceptive users in Ethiopia.

Educational differences in life expectancy over five decades among the oldest old in Norway.

PubMed

Kinge, Jonas Minet; Steingrímsdóttir, Ólöf Anna; Moe, Joakim Oliu; Skirbekk, Vegard; Næss, Øyvind; Strand, Bjørn Heine

2015-11-01

Socioeconomic inequalities in life expectancy have been shown among the middle aged and the youngest of the old individuals, but the situation in the oldest old is less clear. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in life expectancy at ages 85, 90 and 95 years by education in Norway in the period 1961-2009. This was a register-based population study including all residents in Norway aged 85 and over. Individual-level data were provided by the Central Population Register and the National Education Database. For each decade during 1961-2009, death rates by 1-year age groups were calculated separately for each sex and three educational categories. Annual life tables were used to calculate life expectancy at ages 85 (e85), 90 (e90) and 95 (e95). Educational differentials in life expectancy at each age were non-significant in the early decades, but became significant over time. For example, for the decade 2000-9, a man aged 90 years with primary education had a life expectancy of 3.4 years, while a man with tertiary education could expect to live for 3.8 years. Similar numbers in women were 4.1 and 4.5 years, respectively. Even among 95-year-old men, statistically significant differences in life expectancy were found by education in the two last decades. Education matters regarding remaining life expectancy also for the oldest old in Norway. Life expectancy at these ages is low, so a growth of 0.5 years in the life expectancy differential is sizeable. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Danish Cardiovascular Screening Trial (DANCAVAS): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Diederichsen, Axel Cosmus Pyndt; Rasmussen, Lars Melholt; Søgaard, Rikke; Lambrechtsen, Jess; Steffensen, Flemming Hald; Frost, Lars; Egstrup, Kenneth; Urbonaviciene, Grazina; Busk, Martin; Olsen, Michael Hecht; Mickley, Hans; Hallas, Jesper; Lindholt, Jes Sanddal

2015-12-05

The significant increase in the average life expectancy has increased the societal challenge of managing serious age-related diseases, especially cancer and cardiovascular diseases. A routine check by a general practitioner is not sufficient to detect incipient cardiovascular disease. Population-based randomized clinically controlled screening trial. 45,000 Danish men aged 65-74 years living on the Island of Funen, or in the surrounding communities of Vejle and Silkeborg. No exclusion criteria are used. One-third will be invited to cardiovascular seven-faceted screening examinations at one of four locations. The screening will include: (1) low-dose non-contrast CT scan to detect coronary artery calcification and aortic/iliac aneurysms, (2) brachial and ankle blood pressure index to detect peripheral arterial disease and hypertension, (3) a telemetric assessment of the heart rhythm, and (4) a measurement of the cholesterol and plasma glucose levels. Up-to-date cardiovascular preventive treatment is recommended in case of positive findings. To investigate whether advanced cardiovascular screening will prevent death and cardiovascular events, and whether the possible health benefits are cost effective. Registry-based follow-up on all cause death (primary outcome), and costs after 3, 5 and 10 years (secondary outcome). Each of the 45,000 individuals is, by EPIDATA, given a random number from 1-100. Those numbered 67+ will be offered screening; the others will act as a control group. Only those randomized to the screening will be invited to the examination;the remaining participants will not. Numbers randomized: A total of 45,000 men will be randomized 1:2. Recruitment: Enrollment started October 2014. A 5% reduction in overall mortality (HR=0.95), with the risk for a type 1 error=5% and the risk for a type II error=80%, is expected. We expect a 2-year enrollment, a 10-year follow-up, and a median survival of 15 years among the controls. The attendance to screening is assumed to be 70%. The primary aim of this so far stand-alone population-based, randomized trial will be to evaluate the health benefits and costeffectiveness of using non-contrast full truncus computer tomography (CT) scans (to measure coronary artery calcification (CAC) and identify aortic/iliac aneurysms) and measurements of the ankle brachial blood pressure index (ABI) as part of a multifocal screening and intervention program for CVD in men aged 65-74. Attendance rate and compliance to initiated preventive actions must be expected to become of major importance. Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN12157806 (21 March 2015).

Analytical probabilistic modeling of RBE-weighted dose for ion therapy.

PubMed

Wieser, H P; Hennig, P; Wahl, N; Bangert, M

2017-11-10

Particle therapy is especially prone to uncertainties. This issue is usually addressed with uncertainty quantification and minimization techniques based on scenario sampling. For proton therapy, however, it was recently shown that it is also possible to use closed-form computations based on analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) for this purpose. APM yields unique features compared to sampling-based approaches, motivating further research in this context. This paper demonstrates the application of APM for intensity-modulated carbon ion therapy to quantify the influence of setup and range uncertainties on the RBE-weighted dose. In particular, we derive analytical forms for the nonlinear computations of the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose by propagating linearly correlated Gaussian input uncertainties through a pencil beam dose calculation algorithm. Both exact and approximation formulas are presented for the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose and are subsequently studied in-depth for a one-dimensional carbon ion spread-out Bragg peak. With V and B being the number of voxels and pencil beams, respectively, the proposed approximations induce only a marginal loss of accuracy while lowering the computational complexity from order [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] for the expectation value and from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] for the variance of the RBE-weighted dose. Moreover, we evaluated the approximated calculation of the expectation value and standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose in combination with a probabilistic effect-based optimization on three patient cases considering carbon ions as radiation modality against sampled references. The resulting global γ-pass rates (2 mm,2%) are [Formula: see text]99.15% for the expectation value and [Formula: see text]94.95% for the standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose, respectively. We applied the derived analytical model to carbon ion treatment planning, although the concept is in general applicable to other ion species considering a variable RBE.

Analytical probabilistic modeling of RBE-weighted dose for ion therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieser, H. P.; Hennig, P.; Wahl, N.; Bangert, M.

2017-12-01

Particle therapy is especially prone to uncertainties. This issue is usually addressed with uncertainty quantification and minimization techniques based on scenario sampling. For proton therapy, however, it was recently shown that it is also possible to use closed-form computations based on analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) for this purpose. APM yields unique features compared to sampling-based approaches, motivating further research in this context. This paper demonstrates the application of APM for intensity-modulated carbon ion therapy to quantify the influence of setup and range uncertainties on the RBE-weighted dose. In particular, we derive analytical forms for the nonlinear computations of the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose by propagating linearly correlated Gaussian input uncertainties through a pencil beam dose calculation algorithm. Both exact and approximation formulas are presented for the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose and are subsequently studied in-depth for a one-dimensional carbon ion spread-out Bragg peak. With V and B being the number of voxels and pencil beams, respectively, the proposed approximations induce only a marginal loss of accuracy while lowering the computational complexity from order O(V × B^2) to O(V × B) for the expectation value and from O(V × B^4) to O(V × B^2) for the variance of the RBE-weighted dose. Moreover, we evaluated the approximated calculation of the expectation value and standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose in combination with a probabilistic effect-based optimization on three patient cases considering carbon ions as radiation modality against sampled references. The resulting global γ-pass rates (2 mm,2%) are > 99.15% for the expectation value and > 94.95% for the standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose, respectively. We applied the derived analytical model to carbon ion treatment planning, although the concept is in general applicable to other ion species considering a variable RBE.

34 CFR 690.13 - Notification of expected family contribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Notification of expected family contribution. 690.13... Determining Expected Family Contribution § 690.13 Notification of expected family contribution. The Secretary.... (Approved by the Office of Management and Budget under control number 1840-0681) (Authority: 20 U.S.C. 1070a...

Specific expectancies are associated with symptomatic outcomes and side effect burden in a trial of chamomile extract for generalized anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Keefe, John R; Amsterdam, Jay; Li, Qing S; Soeller, Irene; DeRubeis, Robert; Mao, Jun J

2017-01-01

Patient expectancies are hypothesized to contribute to the efficacy and side effects of psychiatric treatments, but little research has investigated this hypothesis in the context of psychopharmacological therapies for anxiety. We prospectively investigated whether expectancies predicted efficacy and adverse events in oral therapy for Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD), controlling for confounding patient characteristics correlating with outcomes. Expectancies regarding treatment efficacy and side effects were assessed at baseline of an eight week open-label phase of a trial of chamomile for Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD). The primary outcome was patient-reported GAD-7 scores, with clinical response and treatment-emergent side-effects as secondary outcomes. Expectancies were used to predict symptomatic and side-effect outcomes. Very few baseline patient characteristics predicted either type of expectancy. Controlling for a patient's predicted recovery based on their baseline characteristics, higher efficacy expectancies at baseline predicted greater change on the GAD-7 (adjusted β = -0.19, p = 0.011). Efficacy expectancies also predicted a higher likelihood of attaining clinical response (adjusted odds ratio = 1.69, p = 0.002). Patients with higher side effect expectancies reported more side effects (adjusted log expected count = 0.26, p = 0.038). Efficacy expectancies were unrelated to side effect reports (log expected count = -0.05, p = 0.680), and side effect expectancies were unrelated to treatment efficacy (β = 0.08, p = 0.306). Patients entering chamomile treatment for GAD with more favorable self-generated expectancies for the treatment experience greater improvement and fewer adverse events. Aligning patient expectancies with treatment selections may optimize outcomes. Trial Number NCT01072344 at ClinicalTrials.gov. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-organized Segregation on the Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omidvar, Hamed; Franceschetti, Massimo

2018-02-01

We consider an agent-based model with exponentially distributed waiting times in which two types of agents interact locally over a graph, and based on this interaction and on the value of a common intolerance threshold τ , decide whether to change their types. This is equivalent to a zero-temperature ising model with Glauber dynamics, an asynchronous cellular automaton with extended Moore neighborhoods, or a Schelling model of self-organized segregation in an open system, and has applications in the analysis of social and biological networks, and spin glasses systems. Some rigorous results were recently obtained in the theoretical computer science literature, and this work provides several extensions. We enlarge the intolerance interval leading to the expected formation of large segregated regions of agents of a single type from the known size ɛ >0 to size ≈ 0.134. Namely, we show that for 0.433< τ < 1/2 (and by symmetry 1/2<τ <0.567), the expected size of the largest segregated region containing an arbitrary agent is exponential in the size of the neighborhood. We further extend the interval leading to expected large segregated regions to size ≈ 0.312 considering "almost segregated" regions, namely regions where the ratio of the number of agents of one type and the number of agents of the other type vanishes quickly as the size of the neighborhood grows. In this case, we show that for 0.344 < τ ≤ 0.433 (and by symmetry for 0.567 ≤ τ <0.656) the expected size of the largest almost segregated region containing an arbitrary agent is exponential in the size of the neighborhood. This behavior is reminiscent of supercritical percolation, where small clusters of empty sites can be observed within any sufficiently large region of the occupied percolation cluster. The exponential bounds that we provide also imply that complete segregation, where agents of a single type cover the whole grid, does not occur with high probability for p=1/2 and the range of intolerance considered.

Magnetic dynamo action in two-dimensional turbulent magneto-hydrodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fyfe, D.; Joyce, G.; Montgomery, D.

1976-01-01

Two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence is explored by means of numerical simulation. Previous analytical theory, based on non-dissipative constants of the motion in a truncated Fourier representation, is verified by following the evolution of highly non-equilibrium initial conditions numerically. Dynamo action (conversion of a significant fraction of turbulent kinetic energy into long-wavelength magnetic field energy) is observed. It is conjectured that in the presence of dissipation and external forcing, a dual cascade will be observed for zero-helicity situations. Energy will cascade to higher wave numbers simultaneously with a cascade of mean square vector potential to lower wave numbers, leading to an omni-directional magnetic energy spectrum which varies as 1/k 3 at lower wave numbers, simultaneously with a buildup of magnetic excitation at the lowest wave number of the system. Equipartition of kinetic and magnetic energies is expected at the highest wave numbers in the system.

Statistical analysis of target acquisition sensor modeling experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deaver, Dawne M.; Moyer, Steve

2015-05-01

The U.S. Army RDECOM CERDEC NVESD Modeling and Simulation Division is charged with the development and advancement of military target acquisition models to estimate expected soldier performance when using all types of imaging sensors. Two elements of sensor modeling are (1) laboratory-based psychophysical experiments used to measure task performance and calibrate the various models and (2) field-based experiments used to verify the model estimates for specific sensors. In both types of experiments, it is common practice to control or measure environmental, sensor, and target physical parameters in order to minimize uncertainty of the physics based modeling. Predicting the minimum number of test subjects required to calibrate or validate the model should be, but is not always, done during test planning. The objective of this analysis is to develop guidelines for test planners which recommend the number and types of test samples required to yield a statistically significant result.

Space station software reliability analysis based on failures observed during testing at the multisystem integration facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tamayo, Tak Chai

1987-01-01

Quality of software not only is vital to the successful operation of the space station, it is also an important factor in establishing testing requirements, time needed for software verification and integration as well as launching schedules for the space station. Defense of management decisions can be greatly strengthened by combining engineering judgments with statistical analysis. Unlike hardware, software has the characteristics of no wearout and costly redundancies, thus making traditional statistical analysis not suitable in evaluating reliability of software. A statistical model was developed to provide a representation of the number as well as types of failures occur during software testing and verification. From this model, quantitative measure of software reliability based on failure history during testing are derived. Criteria to terminate testing based on reliability objectives and methods to estimate the expected number of fixings required are also presented.

Pricing of NASA Space Shuttle transportation system cargo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hale, C. W.

1979-01-01

A two-part pricing policy is investigated as the most feasible method of pricing the transportation services to be provided by NASA's SSTS. Engineering cost estimates and a deterministic operating cost model generate a data base and develop a procedure for pricing the services of the SSTS. It is expected that the SSTS will have a monopoly on space material processing in areas of crystal growth, glass processing, metallurgical space applications, and biomedical processes using electrophoresis which will require efficient pricing. Pricing problems, the SSTS operating costs based on orbit elevation, number of launch sites, and number of flights, capital costs of the SSTS, research and development costs, allocation of joint transportation costs of the SSTS to a particular space processing activity, and rates for the SSTS are discussed. It is concluded that joint costs for commercial cargoes carried in the SSTS can be most usefully handled by making cost allocations based on proportionate capacity utilization.

Impact of paraquat regulation on suicide in South Korea.

PubMed

Cha, Eun Shil; Chang, Shu-Sen; Gunnell, David; Eddleston, Michael; Khang, Young-Ho; Lee, Won Jin

2016-04-01

Ingestion of pesticides (mainly paraquat) accounted for one-fifth of suicides in South Korea in 2006-10. We investigated the effect on suicide mortality of regulatory action, culminating in a ban on paraquat in South Korea in 2011-12. We calculated age-standardized method-specific suicide mortality rates among people aged ≥15 in South Korea (1983-2013) using registered death data. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate changes in the rate and number of pesticide suicides in 2013, compared with those expected based on previous trends (2003-11). Pesticide suicide mortality halved from 5.26 to 2.67 per 100 000 population between 2011 and 2013. Compared with the number expected based on previous trends, the regulations were followed by an estimated 847 [95% confidence interval (CI) -1180 to -533] fewer pesticide suicides, a 37% reduction in rates (rate ratio = 0.63, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.73) in 2013. The decline in pesticide suicides after the regulations was seen in all age/sex/geographical groups. The absolute reduction in the number of suicides was greatest among men, the elderly and in rural areas. The reduction in pesticide suicides contributed to 56% of the decline in overall suicides that occurred between 2011 and 2013. There was no impact of the regulations on crop yield. The regulation of paraquat in South Korea in 2011-12 was associated with a reduction in pesticide suicide. Further legislative interventions to prevent the easy availability of highly lethal suicide methods are recommended for reducing the number of suicides worldwide. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Evaluation of Wall Boundary Conditions for Impedance Eduction Using a Dual-Source Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, W. R.; Jones, M. G.

2012-01-01

The accuracy of the Ingard-Myers boundary condition and a recently proposed modified Ingard-Myers boundary condition is evaluated for use in impedance eduction under the assumption of uniform mean flow. The evaluation is performed at three centerline Mach numbers, using data acquired in a grazing flow impedance tube, using both upstream and downstream propagating sound sources, and on a database of test liners for which the expected behavior of the impedance spectra is known. The test liners are a hard-wall insert consisting of 12.6 mm thick aluminum, a linear liner without a facesheet consisting of a number of small diameter but long cylindrical channels embedded in a ceramic material, and two conventional nonlinear liners consisting of a perforated facesheet bonded to a honeycomb core. The study is restricted to a frequency range for which only plane waves are cut on in the hard-wall sections of the flow impedance tube. The metrics used to evaluate each boundary condition are 1) how well it educes the same impedance for upstream and downstream propagating sources, and 2) how well it predicts the expected behavior of the impedance spectra over the Mach number range. The primary conclusions of the study are that the same impedance is educed for upstream and downstream propagating sources except at the highest Mach number, that an effective impedance based on both the upstream and downstream measurements is more accurate than an impedance based on the upstream or downstream data alone, and that the Ingard-Myers boundary condition with an effective impedance produces results similar to that achieved with the modified Ingard-Myers boundary condition.

Big Numbers about Small Children: Estimating the Economic Benefits of Addressing Undernutrition.

PubMed

Alderman, Harold; Behrman, Jere R; Puett, Chloe

2017-02-01

Different approaches have been used to estimate the economic benefits of reducing undernutrition and to estimate the costs of investing in such programs on a global scale. While many of these studies are ultimately based on evidence from well-designed efficacy trials, all require a number of assumptions to project the impact of such trials to larger populations and to translate the value of the expected improvement in nutritional status into economic terms. This paper provides a short critique of some approaches to estimating the benefits of investments in child nutrition and then presents an alternative set of estimates based on different core data. These new estimates reinforce the basic conclusions of the existing literature: the economic value from reducing undernutrition in undernourished populations is likely to be substantial.

Fuzzy bi-objective linear programming for portfolio selection problem with magnitude ranking function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusumawati, Rosita; Subekti, Retno

2017-04-01

Fuzzy bi-objective linear programming (FBOLP) model is bi-objective linear programming model in fuzzy number set where the coefficients of the equations are fuzzy number. This model is proposed to solve portfolio selection problem which generate an asset portfolio with the lowest risk and the highest expected return. FBOLP model with normal fuzzy numbers for risk and expected return of stocks is transformed into linear programming (LP) model using magnitude ranking function.

Using a standardized donor ratio to assess the performance of organ procurement organizations.

PubMed

Stogis, Sheryl; Hirth, Richard A; Strawderman, Robert L; Banaszak-Holl, Jane; Smith, Dean G

2002-10-01

To develop a Standardized Donor Ratio (SDR) as an outcome measure for evaluating the effectiveness of organ procurement organizations (OPOs). All deaths by cause in the United States during 1993-1994 as reported in the Vital Mortality Statistics, Multiple Cause of Death files. The OPO-specific data were provided by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). Each OPO's expected number of donors was calculated by applying national donation rates to deaths with potential for donation in 24 age, sex, and race cells. The SDR was calculated by dividing the observed number of donors by the expected number. The chi2 tests of the hypothesis that the OPO's performance differed from the national norm of 1.0 were performed. The SDR was compared to the existing performance standard based on the unadjusted number of donors per million live population in the OPO's service area. An ordinary least squares (OLS) regression assessed predictors of the SDR. The SDRs ranged from 0.41 to 1.99. Twenty-nine of 64 OPOs had SDRs significantly different than 1.0. The SDRs were positively associated with the percent of white living population and the number of organ types transplanted per transplant center served by the OPO. The SDRs can be used by Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), UNOS, and OPOs to target quality improvement initiatives, present more accurate comparisons of OPO performance, and develop public policy on the evaluation of the effectiveness of organ procurement efforts.

Estimating Parameters in the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model: Sensitivity to the Prior Distribution Assumption and the Number of Quadrature Points Used.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, James S.; Donoghue, John R.; Laughlin, James E.

The generalized graded unfolding model (J. Roberts, J. Donoghue, and J. Laughlin, 1998, 1999) is an item response theory model designed to unfold polytomous responses. The model is based on a proximity relation that postulates higher levels of expected agreement with a given statement to the extent that a respondent is located close to the…

Special relativity and interferometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, D.; Kim, Y. S.

1988-01-01

A new generation of gravitational wave detectors is expected to be based on interferometers. Yurke et al. (1986) introduced a class of interferometers characterized by SU(1,1) which can in principle achieve a phase sensitivity approaching 1/N, where N is thte total number of photons entering the interferometer. It is shown here that the SU(1,1) interferometer can serve as an analog computer for Wigner's little group of the Poincare\\'| group.

40 CFR 1066.705 - Symbols, abbreviations, acronyms, and units of measure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... series n total number of pulses in a series R dynamometer roll revolutions revolutions per minute rpm 2·π... torque (moment of force) newton meter N·m m2·kg·s−2 t time second s s Δt time interval, period, 1... atmospheric b base c coastdown e effective error error exp expected quantity i an individual of a series final...

Incorporating Ninth-Grade PSAT/NMSQT® Scores into AP Potential™ Predictions for AP® European History and AP World History. Statistical Report 2014-1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Xiuyuan; Patel, Priyank; Ewing, Maureen

2015-01-01

Historically, AP Potential™ correlations and expectancy tables have been based on 10th-and 11th-grade PSAT/NMSQT® examinees and 11th-and 12th-grade AP® examinees for all subjects (Zhang, Patel, & Ewing,2014; Ewing, Camara, & Millsap, 2006; Camara & Millsap, 1998). However, a large number of students take AP European History and AP…

Agent-Based Framework for Discrete Entity Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

Postgres database server for environment queries of neighbors and continuum data. As expected for raw database queries (no database optimizations in...form. Eventually the code was ported to GNU C++ on the same single Intel Pentium 4 CPU running RedHat Linux 9.0 and Postgres database server...Again Postgres was used for environmental queries, and the tool remained relatively slow because of the immense number of queries necessary to assess

Death after legally induced abortion. A comprehensive approach for determination of abortion-related deaths based on record linkage.

PubMed Central

Shelton, J D; Schoenbucher, A K

1978-01-01

The sources for determination of abortion-related deaths in Georgia are the cause of death listed on the death certificate and reports from informal reporting channels. Although Georgia residents 10-44 years of age obtained 19,877 induced abortions in 1975, no deaths related to abortion were found through these two usual sources. To determine the sensitivity of this system, all abortion certificates for 1975 were compared with all death certificates of Georgia females aged 10-44 who died in 1975 and the first 2 months of 1976. Based on the age and racial distribution of the women who received abortions, approximately 13 deaths (from all causes) would be expected to have subsequently occurred during the period of time studied. The authors found only 10. From national death-to-case rates for legal abortion, the expected number actually atrributable to abortion was 0.78 death. Of the 10 deaths, 2 were potentially related to the previous abortion, but a causal relationship to the preceding abortion was not clearly evident for any of the 10 deaths. The data, therefore, tend to support the assertion that no large numbers of deaths related to abortion are undiscovered and that current measurements of abortion mortality are accurate. Images p376-a PMID:684149

Cost-volume-profit analysis and expected benefit of health services: a study of cardiac catheterization services.

PubMed

Younis, Mustafa Z; Jabr, Samer; Smith, Pamela C; Al-Hajeri, Maha; Hartmann, Michael

2011-01-01

Academic research investigating health care costs in the Palestinian region is limited. Therefore, this study examines the costs of the cardiac catheterization unit of one of the largest hospitals in Palestine. We focus on costs of a cardiac catheterization unit and the increasing number of deaths over the past decade in the region due to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We employ cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis to determine the unit's break-even point (BEP), and investigate expected benefits (EBs) of Palestinian government subsidies to the unit. Findings indicate variable costs represent 56 percent of the hospital's total costs. Based on the three functions of the cardiac catheterization unit, results also indicate that the number of patients receiving services exceed the break-even point in each function, despite the unit receiving a government subsidy. Our findings, although based on one hospital, will permit hospital management to realize the importance of unit costs in order to make informed financial decisions. The use of break-even analysis will allow area managers to plan minimum production capacity for the organization. The economic benefits for patients and the government from the unit may encourage government officials to focus efforts on increasing future subsidies to the hospital.

Family climate and expressed emotion in the course of alcoholism.

PubMed

Fichter, M M; Glynn, S M; Weyerer, S; Liberman, R P; Frick, U

1997-06-01

Family-based predictors of relapse were examined in 100 alcoholics who participated in a 12-week treatment program with 6-month and 18-month followups. "Expressed Emotion" (EE), or attitudes of relatives toward the alcoholic as measured by the Camberwell Family Interview, scales measuring rejection of the alcoholic by relatives, and self-reports of partner interaction were evaluated as possible predictors of abstinence. During therapy, partnership interactions showed a transient deterioration with increased temporary friction. Based on conservative criteria, the abstinence rate was 40% at 6-month followup and 30% at 18-month followup. An association with the relapse at followup could be obtained for the Patient Rejection Scale (PRS) and, using empirically derived classification rules, for the main three variables of the Camberwell Family Interview (CFI) conducted on admission: "Critical Comments," "Emotional Overinvolvement," and "Warmth." A low number of Critical Comments and a high score in Warmth were associated with a lower risk of relapse; however, contrary to expectations, Emotional Overinvolvement of the significant other was associated with more abstinence. In addition, the number of Critical Comments made by relatives about the alcoholic, a major component of high EE as measured by the CFI, had a statistically significant impact on the "survival function" of abstinence, and thus contributed to the prediction of the course of alcoholism in the expected direction.

A strategy to identify opportunities for innovation in Romanian healthcare services.

PubMed

Coculescu, B I; Purcărea, V L; Coculescu, E C

2015-01-01

In principle, the development of medicine (including the Romanian health system) is primarily dependent on the level of funding and the efficiency with which this funding is used, the structure of the population and socio-economic development of the geographical area concerned, and not least, the attitudes and expectations of patients, which in turn translate into care taking policies system. Unlike the other services, health services are accessed by a large number of people, which results into high health. As an economic principle, the fewer resources are used to achieve the expected results, the more effective the supplier. However, the introduction of new medical technologies, many of them more reliable yet more expensive, required a reassessment of the way resources are used at the suppliers' level to produce the expected results, an evaluation based on cost-effectiveness per analysis (or per patient) criteria. Finally, medical services are the tools of the marketing strategy of any medical organizations without which the needs and motivations of the beneficiaries (patients) could not be satisfied. In essence, the entire marketing philosophy is based on the needs and wishes of the people and on concrete solutions to solve them.

A strategy to identify opportunities for innovation in Romanian healthcare services

PubMed Central

Coculescu, BI; Purcărea, VL; Coculescu, EC

2015-01-01

In principle, the development of medicine (including the Romanian health system) is primarily dependent on the level of funding and the efficiency with which this funding is used, the structure of the population and socio-economic development of the geographical area concerned, and not least, the attitudes and expectations of patients, which in turn translate into care taking policies system. Unlike the other services, health services are accessed by a large number of people, which results into high health. As an economic principle, the fewer resources are used to achieve the expected results, the more effective the supplier. However, the introduction of new medical technologies, many of them more reliable yet more expensive, required a reassessment of the way resources are used at the suppliers’ level to produce the expected results, an evaluation based on cost-effectiveness per analysis (or per patient) criteria. Finally, medical services are the tools of the marketing strategy of any medical organizations without which the needs and motivations of the beneficiaries (patients) could not be satisfied. In essence, the entire marketing philosophy is based on the needs and wishes of the people and on concrete solutions to solve them. PMID:26351536

Optical data transmission technology for fixed and drag-on STS payloads umbilicals. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St.denis, R. W.

1981-01-01

The feasibility of using optical data handling methods to transmit payload checkout and telemetry is discussed. Optical communications are superior to conventional communication systems for the following reasons: high data capacity optical channels; small and light weight optical cables; and optical signal immunity to electromagnetic interference. Task number one analyzed the ground checkout data requirements that may be expected from the payload community. Task number two selected the optical approach based on the interface requirements, the location of the interface, the amount of time required to reconfigure hardware, and the method of transporting the optical signal. Task number three surveyed and selected optical components for the two payload data link. Task number four makes a qualitative comparison of the conventional electrical communication system and the proposed optical communication system.

A test of ν stability using a 200 GeV narrow-band neutrino beam at BEBC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deden, H.; Grässler, H.; Kirch, D.; Schultze, K.; Böckmann, K.; Glimpf, W.; Kokott, T. P.; Nellen, B.; Saarikko, H.; Wünsch, B.; Bosetti, P. C.; Cundy, D. C.; Grant, A. L.; Hulth, P. O.; Pape, L.; Peyrou, Ch.; Skjeggestad, O.; Wachsmuth, H.; Mermikides, M.; Vayaki, A.; Barnham, K. W. J.; Butterworth, I.; Chima, J. S.; Clayton, E. F.; Miller, D. B.; Mobayyen, M.; Petrides, A.; Powell, K. J.; Albajar, C.; Lloyd, J. L.; Myatt, G.; Perkins, D. H.; Poppe, M.; Radojicic, D.; Renton, P.; Saitta, B.; Wells, J.; Bloch, M.; Bolognese, T.; Tallini, B.; Velasco, J.; Vignaud, D.; Aachen-Bonn-CERN-Demokritos Athens-I. C. London-Oxford-Saclay Collaboration

1981-01-01

νe induced events obtained in a 200 GeV narrow-band beam have been studied and compared to the number expected from K e3+ decay. Agreement is found between the expected and observed numbers allowing limits to be set on νe → νx mixing.

Effects of berry supplementation on mobility and cognition among older adults

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Americans are now living longer than ever before; as a result, the number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double by 2050. During this same period, the number of people living with dementia is expected to almost triple. Even in the absence of specific neuropathology such as Alzheimer’s or...

Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Jeff Eidenshink; Stephen Howard; Robert E. Burgan

2015-01-01

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence information from the...

OPTN/SRTR 2012 Annual Data Report: deceased organ donation.

PubMed

Israni, A K; Zaun, D; Rosendale, J D; Snyder, J J; Kasiske, B L

2014-01-01

The status of deceased organ donation is assessed using several metrics, including donation/conversion rate (how often at least one organ is recovered for transplant from an eligible death), organ yield (ratio of observed/expected numbers of organs transplanted), and rate of organs discarded (number of organs discarded divided by the number of organs recovered for transplant). The 2012 donation/conversion rate was 72.5. eligible donors per 100 eligible deaths, slightly lower than the 2011 rate but higher than in previous years. The 2011-2012 yield ratio varied by donation service area from 0.91 (fewer organs transplanted per donor than expected) to 1.09 (more than expected), and also varied for specific organs. The mean number of organs transplanted per donor in 2012 was 3.02, lower than in 2011 and 2010; this number varied by donation service area from 2.04 to 3.76. The number of organs discarded is calculated by subtracting the number of organs transplanted from the number recovered for transplant; this number is used to calculate the discard rate. The discard rate in 2012 for all organs combined was 0.14 per recovered organ, slightly higher than in 2011 and 2011; it varied by donation service area and organ type. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Forecasting Japan's Physician Shortage in 2035 as the First Full-Fledged Aged Society

PubMed Central

Yamaguchi, Rui; Matsumura, Tomoko; Murashige, Naoko; Kodama, Yuko; Minayo, Satoru; Imai, Kohzoh; Kami, Masahiro

2012-01-01

Introduction Japan is rapidly becoming a full-fledged aged society, and physician shortage is a significant concern. The Japanese government has increased the number of medical school enrollments since 2008, but some researchers warn that this increase could lead to physician surplus in the future. It is unknown how many physicians will be required to accommodate future healthcare needs. Materials and Methods We simulated changes in age/sex composition of the population, fatalities (the number of fatalities for the consecutive five years), and number of physicians from 2010 to 2035. Two indicators were defined: fatalities per physician and fatalities by physician working hour, based on the data of the working hours of physicians for each tuple of sex and age groups. We estimated the necessary number of physicians in 2035 and the number of new physicians to maintain the indicator levels in 2010. Results The number of physicians per 1,000 population is predicted to rise from 2·00 in 2010 to 3·14 in 2035. The number of physicians aged 60 years or older is expected to increase from 55,375 (20% of physicians) to 141,711 (36%). In 2010 and 2035, fatalities per physician were 23·1 and 24·0 for the total population, and 13·9 and 19·2 for 75 years or older, respectively. Fatalities per physician working hour are predicted to rise from 0·128 to 0·138. If working hours are limited to 48 hours per week in 2035, the number of fatalities per physician working hour is expected to be 0·196, and the number of new physicians must be increased by 53% over the current pace. Discussion The number of physicians per population continues to rise, but the estimated supply will not fulfill the demand for healthcare in the aging society. Strategies to increase the number of physicians and improve working conditions are urgently needed. PMID:23233868

Hypergraph-based anomaly detection of high-dimensional co-occurrences.

PubMed

Silva, Jorge; Willett, Rebecca

2009-03-01

This paper addresses the problem of detecting anomalous multivariate co-occurrences using a limited number of unlabeled training observations. A novel method based on using a hypergraph representation of the data is proposed to deal with this very high-dimensional problem. Hypergraphs constitute an important extension of graphs which allow edges to connect more than two vertices simultaneously. A variational Expectation-Maximization algorithm for detecting anomalies directly on the hypergraph domain without any feature selection or dimensionality reduction is presented. The resulting estimate can be used to calculate a measure of anomalousness based on the False Discovery Rate. The algorithm has O(np) computational complexity, where n is the number of training observations and p is the number of potential participants in each co-occurrence event. This efficiency makes the method ideally suited for very high-dimensional settings, and requires no tuning, bandwidth or regularization parameters. The proposed approach is validated on both high-dimensional synthetic data and the Enron email database, where p > 75,000, and it is shown that it can outperform other state-of-the-art methods.

First-Time Mothers' Expectations of Parenthood: What Happens When Optimistic Expectations Are Not Matched by Later Experiences?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harwood, Kate; McLean, Neil; Durkin, Kevin

2007-01-01

Becoming a parent is a major developmental transition of adulthood. Individuals often have optimistic expectations about parenthood, yet this transition also presents a number of challenges. The authors investigated whether new parents have overly optimistic expectations about parenthood and, if they do, how this influences their adjustment to…

How Many Batches Are Needed for Process Validation under the New FDA Guidance?

PubMed

Yang, Harry

2013-01-01

The newly updated FDA Guidance for Industry on Process Validation: General Principles and Practices ushers in a life cycle approach to process validation. While the guidance no longer considers the use of traditional three-batch validation appropriate, it does not prescribe the number of validation batches for a prospective validation protocol, nor does it provide specific methods to determine it. This potentially could leave manufacturers in a quandary. In this paper, I develop a Bayesian method to address the issue. By combining process knowledge gained from Stage 1 Process Design (PD) with expected outcomes of Stage 2 Process Performance Qualification (PPQ), the number of validation batches for PPQ is determined to provide a high level of assurance that the process will consistently produce future batches meeting quality standards. Several examples based on simulated data are presented to illustrate the use of the Bayesian method in helping manufacturers make risk-based decisions for Stage 2 PPQ, and they highlight the advantages of the method over traditional Frequentist approaches. The discussions in the paper lend support for a life cycle and risk-based approach to process validation recommended in the new FDA guidance. The newly updated FDA Guidance for Industry on Process Validation: General Principles and Practices ushers in a life cycle approach to process validation. While the guidance no longer considers the use of traditional three-batch validation appropriate, it does not prescribe the number of validation batches for a prospective validation protocol, nor does it provide specific methods to determine it. This potentially could leave manufacturers in a quandary. In this paper, I develop a Bayesian method to address the issue. By combining process knowledge gained from Stage 1 Process Design (PD) with expected outcomes of Stage 2 Process Performance Qualification (PPQ), the number of validation batches for PPQ is determined to provide a high level of assurance that the process will consistently produce future batches meeting quality standards. Several examples based on simulated data are presented to illustrate the use of the Bayesian method in helping manufacturers make risk-based decisions for Stage 2 PPQ, and THEY highlight the advantages of the method over traditional Frequentist approaches. The discussions in the paper lend support for a life cycle and risk-based approach to process validation recommended in the new FDA guidance.

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R

2007-01-01

The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

Global bending quantum number and the absence of monodromy in the HCN{r_reversible}CNH molecule

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efstathiou, K.; Sadovskii, D.A.; Joyeux, M.

We introduce and analyze a model system based on a deformation of a spherical pendulum that can be used to reproduce large amplitude bending vibrations of flexible triatomic molecules with two stable linear equilibria. On the basis of our model and the recent vibrational potential [ J. Chem. Phys. 115, 3706 (2001) ], we analyze the HCN/CNH isomerizing molecule. We find that HCN/CNH has no monodromy and introduce the second global bending quantum number for this system at all energies where the potential is expected to work. We also show that LiNC/LiCN is a qualitatively different system with monodromy.

Aquatic animal nutrition for the exotic animal practitioner.

PubMed

Corcoran, Mike; Roberts-Sweeney, Helen

2014-09-01

Fish are the most popular pets in the United States based on numbers and high-quality medical care is coming to be expected by owners. Increasing numbers of veterinarians are responding to this need and providing veterinary care for aquatic animals. Part of good medical care for exotic animals is advice on husbandry, including nutrition. However, there are numerous missing areas of research for the nutritional needs of many ornamental fish species. What is known for food species can be combined with what is known for ornamental species to give nutritional advice to owners to maximize health in these animals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

2000-01-01

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Aggregation operators of neutrosophic linguistic numbers for multiple attribute group decision making.

PubMed

Ye, Jun

2016-01-01

Based on the concept of neutrosophic linguistic numbers (NLNs) in symbolic neutrosophic theory presented by Smarandache in 2015, the paper firstly proposes basic operational laws of NLNs and the expected value of a NLN to rank NLNs. Then, we propose the NLN weighted arithmetic average (NLNWAA) and NLN weighted geometric average (NLNWGA) operators and discuss their properties. Further, we establish a multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) method by using the NLNWAA and NLNWGA operators under NLN environment. Finally, an illustrative example on a decision-making problem of manufacturing alternatives in the flexible manufacturing system is given to show the application of the proposed MAGDM method.

Extending data worth methods to select multiple observations targeting specific hydrological predictions of interest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilhelmsen, Troels N.; Ferré, Ty P. A.

2016-04-01

Hydrological models are often developed to forecasting future behavior in response due to natural or human induced changes in stresses affecting hydrologic systems. Commonly, these models are conceptualized and calibrated based on existing data/information about the hydrological conditions. However, most hydrologic systems lack sufficient data to constrain models with adequate certainty to support robust decision making. Therefore, a key element of a hydrologic study is the selection of additional data to improve model performance. Given the nature of hydrologic investigations, it is not practical to select data sequentially, i.e. to choose the next observation, collect it, refine the model, and then repeat the process. Rather, for timing and financial reasons, measurement campaigns include multiple wells or sampling points. There is a growing body of literature aimed at defining the expected data worth based on existing models. However, these are almost all limited to identifying single additional observations. In this study, we present a methodology for simultaneously selecting multiple potential new observations based on their expected ability to reduce the uncertainty of the forecasts of interest. This methodology is based on linear estimates of the predictive uncertainty, and it can be used to determine the optimal combinations of measurements (location and number) established to reduce the uncertainty of multiple predictions. The outcome of the analysis is an estimate of the optimal sampling locations; the optimal number of samples; as well as a probability map showing the locations within the investigated area that are most likely to provide useful information about the forecasting of interest.

Family history and risk of breast cancer: an analysis accounting for family structure.

PubMed

Brewer, Hannah R; Jones, Michael E; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Ashworth, Alan; Swerdlow, Anthony J

2017-08-01

Family history is an important risk factor for breast cancer incidence, but the parameters conventionally used to categorize it are based solely on numbers and/or ages of breast cancer cases in the family and take no account of the size and age-structure of the woman's family. Using data from the Generations Study, a cohort of over 113,000 women from the general UK population, we analyzed breast cancer risk in relation to first-degree family history using a family history score (FHS) that takes account of the expected number of family cases based on the family's age-structure and national cancer incidence rates. Breast cancer risk increased significantly (P trend  < 0.0001) with greater FHS. There was a 3.5-fold (95% CI 2.56-4.79) range of risk between the lowest and highest FHS groups, whereas women who had two or more relatives with breast cancer, the strongest conventional familial risk factor, had a 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.83-3.47) increase in risk. Using likelihood ratio tests, the best model for determining breast cancer risk due to family history was that combining FHS and age of relative at diagnosis. A family history score based on expected as well as observed breast cancers in a family can give greater risk discrimination on breast cancer incidence than conventional parameters based solely on cases in affected relatives. Our modeling suggests that a yet stronger predictor of risk might be a combination of this score and age at diagnosis in relatives.

Carrying capacity & visitor experience: Cape Hatteras National Seashore

Treesearch

Jason A. Strother; Hans Vogelsong

2003-01-01

The number of people living the United States is expected to increase by 63 million by the year 2025, bringing the total population to over 300 million. As population size increases, recreation and park managers can expect to experience an increase in the number of visitors/users. In 2000, the National Park Service recorded nearly 300 million visitors throughout the...

Reconsidering community-based health promotion: promise, performance, and potential.

PubMed

Merzel, Cheryl; D'Afflitti, Joanna

2003-04-01

Contemporary public health emphasizes a community-based approach to health promotion and disease prevention. The evidence from the past 20 years indicates, however, that many community-based programs have had only modest impact, with the notable exception of a number of HIV prevention programs. To better understand the reasons for these outcomes, we conducted a systematic literature review of 32 community-based prevention programs. Reasons for poor performance include methodological challenges to study design and evaluation, concurrent secular trends, smaller-than-expected effect sizes, limitations of the interventions, and limitations of theories used. The effectiveness of HIV programs appears to be related in part to extensive formative research and an emphasis on changing social norms.

ARM Evaluation Product : Droplet Number Concentration Value-Added Product

DOE Data Explorer

Riihimaki, Laura

2014-05-15

Cloud droplet number concentration is an important factor in understanding aerosol-cloud interactions. As aerosol concentration increases, it is expected that droplet number concentration, Nd, will increase and droplet size decrease, for a given liquid water path (Twomey 1977), which will greatly affect cloud albedo as smaller droplets reflect more shortwave radiation. However, the magnitude and variability of these processes under different environmental conditions is still uncertain. McComiskey et al. (2009) have implemented a method, based on Boers and Mitchell (1994), for calculating Nd from ground-based remote sensing measurements of optical depth and liquid water path. They show that the magnitude of the aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) varies with a range of factors, including the relative value of the cloud liquid water path (LWP), the aerosol size distribution, and the cloud updraft velocity. Estimates of Nd under a range of cloud types and conditions and at a variety of sites are needed to further quantify the impacts of aerosol cloud interactions.

Methods for simulating nutritional requirement and response studies with all organisms to increase research efficiency.

PubMed

Vedenov, Dmitry; Alhotan, Rashed A; Wang, Runlian; Pesti, Gene M

2017-02-01

Nutritional requirements and responses of all organisms are estimated using various models representing the response to different dietary levels of the nutrient in question. To help nutritionists design experiments for estimating responses and requirements, we developed a simulation workbook using Microsoft Excel. The objective of the present study was to demonstrate the influence of different numbers of nutrient levels, ranges of nutrient levels and replications per nutrient level on the estimates of requirements based on common nutritional response models. The user provides estimates of the shape of the response curve, requirements and other parameters and observation to observation variation. The Excel workbook then produces 1-1000 randomly simulated responses based on the given response curve and estimates the standard errors of the requirement (and other parameters) from different models as an indication of the expected power of the experiment. Interpretations are based on the assumption that the smaller the standard error of the requirement, the more powerful the experiment. The user can see the potential effects of using one or more subjects, different nutrient levels, etc., on the expected outcome of future experiments. From a theoretical perspective, each organism should have some enzyme-catalysed reaction whose rate is limited by the availability of some limiting nutrient. The response to the limiting nutrient should therefore be similar to enzyme kinetics. In conclusion, the workbook eliminates some of the guesswork involved in designing experiments and determining the minimum number of subjects needed to achieve desired outcomes.

Unseen Progenitors of Luminous High- z Quasars in the R {sub h} = ct Universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fatuzzo, Marco; Melia, Fulvio, E-mail: fatuzzo@xavier.edu, E-mail: fmelia@email.arizona.edu

Quasars at high redshift provide direct information on the mass growth of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and, in turn, yield important clues about how the universe evolved since the first (Pop III) stars started forming. Yet even basic questions regarding the seeds of these objects and their growth mechanism remain unanswered. The anticipated launch of eROSITA and ATHENA is expected to facilitate observations of high-redshift quasars needed to resolve these issues. In this paper, we compare accretion-based SMBH growth in the concordance ΛCDM model with that in the alternative Friedmann–Robertson–Walker cosmology known as the R {sub h} = ct universe.more » Previous work has shown that the timeline predicted by the latter can account for the origin and growth of the ≳10{sup 9} M {sub ⊙} highest redshift quasars better than that of the standard model. Here, we significantly advance this comparison by determining the soft X-ray flux that would be observed for Eddington-limited accretion growth as a function of redshift in both cosmologies. Our results indicate that a clear difference emerges between the two in terms of the number of detectable quasars at redshift z ≳ 7, raising the expectation that the next decade will provide the observational data needed to discriminate between these two models based on the number of detected high-redshift quasar progenitors. For example, while the upcoming ATHENA mission is expected to detect ∼0.16 (i.e., essentially zero) quasars at z ∼ 7 in R {sub h} = ct , it should detect ∼160 in ΛCDM—a quantitatively compelling difference.« less

Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2016-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

Methodology for the evaluation of vascular surgery manpower in France.

PubMed

Berger, L; Mace, J M; Ricco, J B; Saporta, G

2013-01-01

The French population is growing and ageing. It is expected to increase by 2.7% by 2020, and the number of individuals over 65 years of age is expected to increase by 3.3 million, a 33% increase, between 2005 and 2020. As the number of vascular surgery procedures is closely associated with the age of a population, it is anticipated that there will be a significant increase in the workload of vascular surgeons. A model is presented to predict changes in vascular surgery activity according to population ageing, including other parameters that could affect workload evolution. Three types of arterial procedures were studied: infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery, peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) procedures and carotid artery (CEA) procedures. Data were selected and extracted from the national PMSI (Medical Information System Program) database. Data obtained from 2000 were used to predict data based on an ageing population for 2008. From this model, a weighted index was defined for each group by comparing expected and observed workloads. According to the model, over this 8-year period, there was an overall increase in vascular procedures of 52.2%, with an increase of 89% in PAOD procedures. Between 2000 and 2009, the total increase was 58.0%, with 3.9% for AAA procedures, 101.7% for PAOD procedures and 13.2% for CEA procedures. The weighted model based on an ageing population and corrected by a weighted factor predicted this increase. This weighted model is able to predict the workload of vascular surgeons over the coming years. An ageing population and other factors could result in a significant increase in demand for vascular surgical services. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do Lions Panthera leo Actively Select Prey or Do Prey Preferences Simply Reflect Chance Responses via Evolutionary Adaptations to Optimal Foraging?

PubMed Central

Hayward, Matt W.; Hayward, Gina J.; Tambling, Craig J.; Kerley, Graham I. H.

2011-01-01

Research on coursing predators has revealed that actions throughout the predatory behavioral sequence (using encounter rate, hunting rate, and kill rate as proxy measures of decisions) drive observed prey preferences. We tested whether similar actions drive the observed prey preferences of a stalking predator, the African lion Panthera leo. We conducted two 96 hour, continuous follows of lions in Addo Elephant National Park seasonally from December 2003 until November 2005 (16 follows), and compared prey encounter rate with prey abundance, hunt rate with prey encounter rate, and kill rate with prey hunt rate for the major prey species in Addo using Jacobs' electivity index. We found that lions encountered preferred prey species far more frequently than expected based on their abundance, and they hunted these species more frequently than expected based on this higher encounter rate. Lions responded variably to non-preferred and avoided prey species throughout the predatory sequence, although they hunted avoided prey far less frequently than expected based on the number of encounters of them. We conclude that actions of lions throughout the predatory behavioural sequence, but particularly early on, drive the prey preferences that have been documented for this species. Once a hunt is initiated, evolutionary adaptations to the predator-prey interactions drive hunting success. PMID:21915261

An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience.

PubMed

Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

2016-02-01

On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A web-based multidomain lifestyle intervention with connected devices for older adults: research protocol of the eMIND pilot randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Pothier, Kristell; Soriano, G; Lussier, M; Naudin, A; Costa, N; Guyonnet, S; Piau, A; Ousset, P J; Nourhashemi, F; Vellas, B; de Souto Barreto, P

2018-01-24

Multidomain interventions composed of nutritional counseling, exercise and cognitive trainings have shown encouraging results as effective preventive strategies delaying age-related declines. However, these interventions are time- and resource-consuming. The use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) might facilitate the translation from research into real-world practice and reach a massive number of people. This article describes the protocol of the eMIND study, a randomized controlled trial (RCT) using a web-based multidomain intervention for older adults. One hundred and twenty older adults (≥ 65 years), with a spontaneous memory complaint, will be randomly assigned to a six-month web-based multidomain (nutritional counseling, physical and cognitive trainings) intervention group with a connected accelerometer (number of steps, energy expenditure), or to a control group with access to general information on healthy aging plus the accelerometer, but no access to the multidomain intervention. The main outcome is the feasibility/acceptability of the web-based intervention. Secondary clinical outcomes include: cognitive functions, physical performance, nutritional status and cost-effectiveness. We expect a high amount of adherers (ie, > 75% compliance to the protocol) to reflect the feasibility. Acceptability, assessed through interviews, should allow us to understand motivators and barriers to this ICT intervention. We also expect to provide data on its effects on various clinical outcomes and efficiency. The eMIND study will provide crucial information to help developing a future and larger web-based multidomain lifestyle RCT, which should facilitate the translation of this ICT intervention from the research world into real-life clinical practice for the healthcare of older adults.

Acceleration of image-based resolution modelling reconstruction using an expectation maximization nested algorithm.

PubMed

Angelis, G I; Reader, A J; Markiewicz, P J; Kotasidis, F A; Lionheart, W R; Matthews, J C

2013-08-07

Recent studies have demonstrated the benefits of a resolution model within iterative reconstruction algorithms in an attempt to account for effects that degrade the spatial resolution of the reconstructed images. However, these algorithms suffer from slower convergence rates, compared to algorithms where no resolution model is used, due to the additional need to solve an image deconvolution problem. In this paper, a recently proposed algorithm, which decouples the tomographic and image deconvolution problems within an image-based expectation maximization (EM) framework, was evaluated. This separation is convenient, because more computational effort can be placed on the image deconvolution problem and therefore accelerate convergence. Since the computational cost of solving the image deconvolution problem is relatively small, multiple image-based EM iterations do not significantly increase the overall reconstruction time. The proposed algorithm was evaluated using 2D simulations, as well as measured 3D data acquired on the high-resolution research tomograph. Results showed that bias reduction can be accelerated by interleaving multiple iterations of the image-based EM algorithm solving the resolution model problem, with a single EM iteration solving the tomographic problem. Significant improvements were observed particularly for voxels that were located on the boundaries between regions of high contrast within the object being imaged and for small regions of interest, where resolution recovery is usually more challenging. Minor differences were observed using the proposed nested algorithm, compared to the single iteration normally performed, when an optimal number of iterations are performed for each algorithm. However, using the proposed nested approach convergence is significantly accelerated enabling reconstruction using far fewer tomographic iterations (up to 70% fewer iterations for small regions). Nevertheless, the optimal number of nested image-based EM iterations is hard to be defined and it should be selected according to the given application.

Trust Measurement using Multimodal Behavioral Analysis and Uncertainty Aware Trust Calibration

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-05

to estimate their performance based on their estimation on all prior trials. In the meanwhile via comparing the decisions of participants with the...it is easier compared with situations when more trials have been done. It should be noted that if a participant is good at memorizing the previous...them. The proposed study, being quantitative and explorative, are expected to reveal a number of findings that benefit interaction system design and

INDICES OF TAXON-BY-TAXON DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OBSERVED AND EXPECTED ASSEMBLAGES

EPA Science Inventory

RIVPACS-type models infer impairment from the level of disagreement between observed and expected assemblages. The popular O/E index measures the disagreement between the observed and expected number of taxa. Thus, O/E ignores the additional information offered by a taxon-by-taxo...

Heat accumulation between scans during multi-pass cutting of carbon fiber reinforced plastics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kononenko, T. V.; Freitag, C.; Komlenok, M. S.; Weber, R.; Graf, T.; Konov, V. I.

2018-02-01

Matrix evaporation caused by heat accumulation between scans (HAS) was studied in the case of multi-pass scanning of a laser beam over the surface of carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP). The experiments were performed in two regimes, namely, in the process of CFRP cutting and in the regime of low-fluence irradiation avoiding ablation of carbon fibers. The feature of the ablation-free regime is that all absorbed energy remains in the material as heat, while in the cutting regime the fraction of residual heat is unknown. An analytical model based on two-dimensional (2D) heat flow was applied to predict the critical number of scans, after which the HAS effect causes a distinct growth of the matrix evaporation zone (MEZ). According to the model, the critical number of scans decreases exponentially with increasing laser power, while no dependence on the feed rate is expected. It was found that the model fits well to the experimental data obtained in the ablation-free regime where the heat input is well defined and known. In the cutting regime the measured significant reduction of the critical number of scans observed in deep grooves may be attributed to transformation of the heat flow geometry and to an expected increase of the residual heat fraction.

Potential implementation of light steel housing system for affordable housing project in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikah, M.; Kasim, N.; Zainal, R.; Sarpin, N.; Rahim, M. H. I. A.

2017-11-01

An unparalleled number between housing demand and housing supply in Malaysia has increased the housing prices, which gives consequences to the homeownership issue. One way to reduce the housing price is by faster increase the number of affordable housing, but the construction sector faces difficulties in delivering as expected number by using conventional and current industrialised building system (IBS) due to the issue related high project cost, time and labour. Therefore, light steel housing (LSH) system as one of another type of IBS method can be utilised in housing construction project. This method can replace the conventional method that was currently used in the construction of affordable housing project. The objectives of this study are to identify the potential of LSH and influencing factors of system implementation. This is an initial stage to review the previous study related to LSH implementation in developed and developing countries. The previous study will be analysed regarding advantages and disadvantages of LSH and factors that influence the implementation of the system. Based on the literature review it is expected to define the potential and influencing factors of the LSH system. The findings are meaningful in framing and enhance construction housing method of an affordable housing project in Malaysia.

Biomedical engineering education--status and perspectives.

PubMed

Magjarevic, Ratko; Zequera Diaz, Martha L

2014-01-01

Biomedical Engineering programs are present at a large number of universities all over the world with an increasing trend. New generations of biomedical engineers have to face the challenges of health care systems round the world which need a large number of professionals not only to support the present technology in the health care system but to develop new devices and services. Health care stakeholders would like to have innovative solutions directed towards solving problems of the world growing incidence of chronic disease and ageing population. These new solutions have to meet the requirements for continuous monitoring, support or care outside clinical settlements. Presence of these needs can be tracked through data from the Labor Organization in the U.S. showing that biomedical engineering jobs have the largest growth at the engineering labor market with expected 72% growth rate in the period from 2008-2018. In European Union the number of patents (i.e. innovation) is the highest in the category of biomedical technology. Biomedical engineering curricula have to adopt to the new needs and for expectations of the future. In this paper we want to give an overview of engineering professions in related to engineering in medicine and biology and the current status of BME education in some regions, as a base for further discussions.

On the Statistical Errors of RADAR Location Sensor Networks with Built-In Wi-Fi Gaussian Linear Fingerprints

PubMed Central

Zhou, Mu; Xu, Yu Bin; Ma, Lin; Tian, Shuo

2012-01-01

The expected errors of RADAR sensor networks with linear probabilistic location fingerprints inside buildings with varying Wi-Fi Gaussian strength are discussed. As far as we know, the statistical errors of equal and unequal-weighted RADAR networks have been suggested as a better way to evaluate the behavior of different system parameters and the deployment of reference points (RPs). However, up to now, there is still not enough related work on the relations between the statistical errors, system parameters, number and interval of the RPs, let alone calculating the correlated analytical expressions of concern. Therefore, in response to this compelling problem, under a simple linear distribution model, much attention will be paid to the mathematical relations of the linear expected errors, number of neighbors, number and interval of RPs, parameters in logarithmic attenuation model and variations of radio signal strength (RSS) at the test point (TP) with the purpose of constructing more practical and reliable RADAR location sensor networks (RLSNs) and also guaranteeing the accuracy requirements for the location based services in future ubiquitous context-awareness environments. Moreover, the numerical results and some real experimental evaluations of the error theories addressed in this paper will also be presented for our future extended analysis. PMID:22737027

On the statistical errors of RADAR location sensor networks with built-in Wi-Fi Gaussian linear fingerprints.

PubMed

Zhou, Mu; Xu, Yu Bin; Ma, Lin; Tian, Shuo

2012-01-01

The expected errors of RADAR sensor networks with linear probabilistic location fingerprints inside buildings with varying Wi-Fi Gaussian strength are discussed. As far as we know, the statistical errors of equal and unequal-weighted RADAR networks have been suggested as a better way to evaluate the behavior of different system parameters and the deployment of reference points (RPs). However, up to now, there is still not enough related work on the relations between the statistical errors, system parameters, number and interval of the RPs, let alone calculating the correlated analytical expressions of concern. Therefore, in response to this compelling problem, under a simple linear distribution model, much attention will be paid to the mathematical relations of the linear expected errors, number of neighbors, number and interval of RPs, parameters in logarithmic attenuation model and variations of radio signal strength (RSS) at the test point (TP) with the purpose of constructing more practical and reliable RADAR location sensor networks (RLSNs) and also guaranteeing the accuracy requirements for the location based services in future ubiquitous context-awareness environments. Moreover, the numerical results and some real experimental evaluations of the error theories addressed in this paper will also be presented for our future extended analysis.

Noise generator for tinnitus treatment based on look-up tables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uriz, Alejandro J.; Agüero, Pablo; Tulli, Juan C.; Castiñeira Moreira, Jorge; González, Esteban; Hidalgo, Roberto; Casadei, Manuel

2016-04-01

Treatment of tinnitus by means of masking sounds allows to obtain a significant improve of the quality of life of the individual that suffer that condition. In view of that, it is possible to develop noise synthesizers based on random number generators in digital signal processors (DSP), which are used in almost any digital hearing aid devices. DSP architecture have limitations to implement a pseudo random number generator, due to it, the noise statistics can be not as good as expectations. In this paper, a technique to generate additive white gaussian noise (AWGN) or other types of filtered noise using coefficients stored in program memory of the DSP is proposed. Also, an implementation of the technique is carried out on a dsPIC from Microchip®. Objective experiments and experimental measurements are performed to analyze the proposed technique.

Entrepreneurial model based technology creative industries sector software through the use of free open source software for Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, B.; Hasbullah; Purnama, W.; Hery, A.

2016-04-01

Creative industry development areas of software by using Free Open Source Software (FOSS) is expected to be one of the solutions to foster new entrepreneurs of the students who can open job opportunities and contribute to economic development in Indonesia. This study aims to create entrepreneurial coaching model based on the creative industries by utilizing FOSS software field as well as provide understanding and fostering entrepreneurial creative industries based field software for students of Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia. This activity phase begins with identifying entrepreneurs or business software technology that will be developed, training and mentoring, apprenticeship process at industrial partners, creation of business plans and monitoring and evaluation. This activity involves 30 UPI student which has the motivation to self-employment and have competence in the field of information technology. The results and outcomes expected from these activities is the birth of a number of new entrepreneurs from the students engaged in the software industry both software in the world of commerce (e-commerce) and education/learning (e-learning/LMS) and games.

Correlates and predictors of parenting stress among internationally adopting mothers: A longitudinal investigation.

PubMed

Viana, Andres G; Welsh, Janet A

2010-07-01

This study examined correlates and predictors of parenting stress among internationally adopting (IA) mothers with the goal of expanding the knowledge base on the experiences of adoptive parents. One hundred and forty-three IA mothers completed pre-adoption (Time 0) and six months post-adoption (Time 1) surveys with questions regarding child-, parent-, and family-related characteristics. Mother reports of higher depression symptoms, higher expectations of child developmental and behavioral/emotional problems, and a greater number of children in the family at pre-adoption were significantly related to higher parenting stress six months post-adoption. In contrast, mother reports of higher expectations for child acceptance and higher perceived social support at pre-adoption were significantly related to lower parenting stress six months post-adoption. Higher maternal depression symptoms, higher expectations of child behavior/emotional problems, and a greater number of children in the family at pre-adoption together accounted for 22% of the variance in parenting stress six months post-adoption. Concurrent higher maternal depression symptoms and higher reports of child behavioral/emotional problems predicted higher parenting stress six months post-adoption over and above pre-adoption predictors, and accounted for an additional 33% of the variance. Results and directions for future research are discussed from a transactional perspective, with particular emphasis on the importance of pre-adoptive information for adoption research and practice.

Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. Methods A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Results Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Conclusions Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react. PMID:20353568

Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Kok, Gerjo; Jonkers, Ruud; Gelissen, Roger; Meertens, Ree; Schaalma, Herman; de Zwart, Onno

2010-03-30

Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

Barriers to home-based exercise program adherence with chronic low back pain: Patient expectations regarding new technologies.

PubMed

Palazzo, Clémence; Klinger, Evelyne; Dorner, Véronique; Kadri, Abdelmajid; Thierry, Olivier; Boumenir, Yasmine; Martin, William; Poiraudeau, Serge; Ville, Isabelle

2016-04-01

To assess views of patients with chronic low back pain (cLBP) concerning barriers to home-based exercise program adherence and to record expectations regarding new technologies. Qualitative study based on semi-structured interviews. A heterogeneous sample of 29 patients who performed a home-based exercise program for cLBP learned during supervised physiotherapy sessions in a tertiary care hospital. Patients were interviewed at home by the same trained interviewer. Interviews combined a funnel-shaped structure and an itinerary method. Barriers to adherence related to the exercise program (number, effectiveness, complexity and burden of exercises), the healthcare journey (breakdown between supervised sessions and home exercise, lack of follow-up and difficulties in contacting care providers), patient representations (illness and exercise perception, despondency, depression and lack of motivation), and the environment (attitudes of others, difficulties in planning exercise practice). Adherence could be enhanced by increasing the attractiveness of exercise programs, improving patient performance (following a model or providing feedback), and the feeling of being supported by care providers and other patients. Regarding new technologies, relatively younger patients favored visual and dynamic support that provided an enjoyable and challenging environment and feedback on their performance. Relatively older patients favored the possibility of being guided when doing exercises. Whatever the tool proposed, patients expected its use to be learned during a supervised session and performance regularly checked by care providers; they expected adherence to be discussed with care providers. For patients with cLBP, adherence to home-based exercise programs could be facilitated by increasing the attractiveness of the programs, improving patient performance and favoring a feeling of being supported. New technologies meet these challenges and seem attractive to patients but are not a substitute for the human relationship between patients and care providers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Wind direction change criteria for wind turbine design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cliff, W.C.

1979-01-01

A method is presented for estimating the root mean square (rms) value of the wind direction change, ..delta..theta(tau) = theta(tau + tau) - theta(tau), that occurs over the swept area of wind turbine rotor systems. An equation is also given for the rms value of the wind direction change that occurs at a single point in space, i.e., a direcion change that a wind vane would measure. Assuming a normal probability density function for the lateral wind velocity change and relating this to angular changes, equations are given for calculating the expected number of wind direction changes, larger than anmore » arbitrary value, that will occur in 1 hr as well as the expected number that will occur during the design life of a wind turbine. The equations presented are developed using a small angle approximation and are, therefore, considered appropriate for wind direction changes of less than 30/sup 0/. The equations presented are based upon neutral atmospheric boundary-layer conditions and do not include information regarding events such as tornados, hurricanes, etc.« less

Model-based clustering for RNA-seq data.

PubMed

Si, Yaqing; Liu, Peng; Li, Pinghua; Brutnell, Thomas P

2014-01-15

RNA-seq technology has been widely adopted as an attractive alternative to microarray-based methods to study global gene expression. However, robust statistical tools to analyze these complex datasets are still lacking. By grouping genes with similar expression profiles across treatments, cluster analysis provides insight into gene functions and networks, and hence is an important technique for RNA-seq data analysis. In this manuscript, we derive clustering algorithms based on appropriate probability models for RNA-seq data. An expectation-maximization algorithm and another two stochastic versions of expectation-maximization algorithms are described. In addition, a strategy for initialization based on likelihood is proposed to improve the clustering algorithms. Moreover, we present a model-based hybrid-hierarchical clustering method to generate a tree structure that allows visualization of relationships among clusters as well as flexibility of choosing the number of clusters. Results from both simulation studies and analysis of a maize RNA-seq dataset show that our proposed methods provide better clustering results than alternative methods such as the K-means algorithm and hierarchical clustering methods that are not based on probability models. An R package, MBCluster.Seq, has been developed to implement our proposed algorithms. This R package provides fast computation and is publicly available at http://www.r-project.org

75 FR 13710 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Designation of Areas for Air Quality Planning...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-23

...-10 standard is determined by calculating the expected number of days in a year with PM-10... PM-10. See 40 CFR part 50, appendix K. A complete year of air quality data, as referred to in 40 CFR... certified. As noted above, the 24-hour PM-10 standard is attained when the expected number of days per year...

Variance Difference between Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method and Expected A Posteriori Estimation Method Viewed from Number of Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahmud, Jumailiyah; Sutikno, Muzayanah; Naga, Dali S.

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine variance difference between maximum likelihood and expected A posteriori estimation methods viewed from number of test items of aptitude test. The variance presents an accuracy generated by both maximum likelihood and Bayes estimation methods. The test consists of three subtests, each with 40 multiple-choice…

Genetic variation maintained in multilocus models of additive quantitative traits under stabilizing selection.

PubMed Central

Bürger, R; Gimelfarb, A

1999-01-01

Stabilizing selection for an intermediate optimum is generally considered to deplete genetic variation in quantitative traits. However, conflicting results from various types of models have been obtained. While classical analyses assuming a large number of independent additive loci with individually small effects indicated that no genetic variation is preserved under stabilizing selection, several analyses of two-locus models showed the contrary. We perform a complete analysis of a generalization of Wright's two-locus quadratic-optimum model and investigate numerically the ability of quadratic stabilizing selection to maintain genetic variation in additive quantitative traits controlled by up to five loci. A statistical approach is employed by choosing randomly 4000 parameter sets (allelic effects, recombination rates, and strength of selection) for a given number of loci. For each parameter set we iterate the recursion equations that describe the dynamics of gamete frequencies starting from 20 randomly chosen initial conditions until an equilibrium is reached, record the quantities of interest, and calculate their corresponding mean values. As the number of loci increases from two to five, the fraction of the genome expected to be polymorphic declines surprisingly rapidly, and the loci that are polymorphic increasingly are those with small effects on the trait. As a result, the genetic variance expected to be maintained under stabilizing selection decreases very rapidly with increased number of loci. The equilibrium structure expected under stabilizing selection on an additive trait differs markedly from that expected under selection with no constraints on genotypic fitness values. The expected genetic variance, the expected polymorphic fraction of the genome, as well as other quantities of interest, are only weakly dependent on the selection intensity and the level of recombination. PMID:10353920

Using a Standardized Donor Ratio to Assess Organ Procurement Organizations

PubMed Central

Stogis, Sheryl; Hirth, Richard A; Strawderman, Robert L; Banaszak-Holl, Jane; Smith, Dean G

2002-01-01

Objective To develop a Standardized Donor Ratio (SDR) as an outcome measure for evaluating the effectiveness of organ procurement organizations (OPOs). Data Sources/Study Setting All deaths by cause in the United States during 1993–1994 as reported in the Vital Mortality Statistics, Multiple Cause of Death files. The OPO-specific data were provided by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). Study Design Each OPO's expected number of donors was calculated by applying national donation rates to deaths with potential for donation in 24 age, sex, and race cells. The SDR was calculated by dividing the observed number of donors by the expected number. The X2 tests of the hypothesis that the OPO's performance differed from the national norm of 1.0 were performed. The SDR was compared to the existing performance standard based on the unadjusted number of donors per million live population in the OPO's service area. An ordinary least squares (OLS) regression assessed predictors of the SDR. Principal Findings The SDRs ranged from 0.41 to 1.99. Twenty-nine of 64 OPOs had SDRs significantly different than 1.0. The SDRs were positively associated with the percent of white living population and the number of organ types transplanted per transplant center served by the OPO. Conclusions The SDRs can be used by Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), UNOS, and OPOs to target quality improvement initiatives, present more accurate comparisons of OPO performance, and develop public policy on the evaluation of the effectiveness of organ procurement efforts. PMID:12479499

Burden of Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Its Economic Implications in Singapore in the Year 2030.

PubMed

Saxena, Nakul; George, Pradeep Paul; Hoon, Heng Bee; Han, Lim Tock; Onn, Yong Shao

2016-08-01

To estimate the prevalence of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Singapore in the year 2030. This projection will help in planning appropriate care provision and build health services capacity to cater to the increasing healthcare demand in 2030. The number of AMD patients aged 40-79 years from all Singaporeans was estimated using prevalence rates from a local study and using the United Nations population projections for Singapore to 2030. Age-specific mortality was accounted for. Additionally, two main scenarios were presented: (1) Projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were not taking preventive antioxidant vitamins; (2) projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were taking preventive antioxidant vitamins. Based on these scenarios, the economic burden was calculated. The number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained as a result of improvement in visual acuity (VA) due to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment was also calculated. An estimated growth of 42% in the number of wet AMD cases is expected by 2030. The estimated economic burden of wet AMD in 2030 for scenarios 1 and 2 is Singapore $203.1 million and $162.9 million, respectively. The QALYs gained as a result of improved VA from wet AMD treatment ranged from 10,114.4 to 14,058.8 over a 5-year period for the 2030 cohort. The burden of wet AMD is set to increase over the next 15 years. Appropriate measures to build healthcare capacity and plan for this expected surge in patients should be a priority in Singapore.

Radiation damage in the diamond based beam condition monitors of the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guthoff, Moritz; Afanaciev, Konstantin; Dabrowski, Anne; de Boer, Wim; Lange, Wolfgang; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Stickland, David

2013-12-01

The Beam Condition Monitor (BCM) of the CMS detector at the LHC is a protection device similar to the LHC Beam Loss Monitor system. While the electronics used is the same, poly-crystalline Chemical Vapor Deposition (pCVD) diamonds are used instead of ionization chambers as the BCM sensor material. The main purpose of the system is the protection of the silicon Pixel and Strip tracking detectors by inducing a beam dump, if the beam losses are too high in the CMS detector. By comparing the detector current with the instantaneous luminosity, the BCM detector efficiency can be monitored. The number of radiation-induced defects in the diamond, reduces the charge collection distance, and hence lowers the signal. The number of these induced defects can be simulated using the FLUKA Monte Carlo simulation. The cross-section for creating defects increases with decreasing energies of the impinging particles. This explains, why diamond sensors mounted close to heavy calorimeters experience more radiation damage, because of the high number of low energy neutrons in these regions. The signal decrease was stronger than expected from the number of simulated defects. Here polarization from trapped charge carriers in the defects is a likely candidate for explaining the difference, as suggested by Transient Current Technique (TCT) measurements. A single-crystalline (sCVD) diamond sensor shows a faster relative signal decrease than a pCVD sensor mounted at the same location. This is expected, since the relative increase in the number of defects is larger in sCVD than in pCVD sensors.

Apparent discrimination in the provision of biologic therapy to patients with Crohn's disease according to ethnicity.

PubMed

Farrukh, A; Mayberry, J F

2015-05-01

The objective of the study was to investigate whether patients from a South Asian ethnic background who had Crohn's disease received equivalent access to therapy with biologics compared to patients with an English background. The study was retrospective and covered the period 2008 to 2012. It was based on a register of all patients with Crohn's disease in Leicestershire who are treated with biologics. The prevalence of Crohn's disease in Leicestershire amongst South Asian and English patients was known from earlier studies and from these data it was possible to make corrections to allow for the difference in frequency of the condition between the two communities. All adult patients who received biologics for treatment of Crohn's disease in Leicestershire between 2008 and 2012 were reviewed and their gender and ethnicity noted as well as whether they had received infliximab or adalumimab. The expected numbers of patients who should have received these therapies were calculated in two ways: One hundred and twenty six patients with Crohn's disease who received treatment with biologics were European and 13 South Asian. The patients' gender was also noted and 67 European patients (53%) were female as were six Asians (46%). Based on prevalence data, the expected distribution of the treatment would have been for 97 of the patients to have been European and 42 to have been South Asian. If 126 European patients warranted treatment, on this basis the expected number of South Asian patients in need of biologic therapy would have been 55. Based on the smaller predicted number of South Asian patients (42) the difference is significant at P < 0.0001 [Proportion difference=0.69 (95% confidence interval=0.539278-0.809576]. For the difference to be extinguished the number of English patients who should have received biologic therapy would have been as low as between 30 and 39 cases (based on the calculated proportion of 97 and the actual figure of 126 European patients respectively). Based on a population composition, rather than prevalence data, in which 24% of the Leicester community should have been of South Asian origin, 33 patients would have received biologics compared with 92 patients of English origin (66%). This is significantly different to the 13 patients who did receive treatment (z=-3.2, P < 0.001). Suggested reasons for these differences have included concerns about the animal origins of infliximab as well as difficulties associated with accessing the service, such as the provision of information in an appropriate language through appropriate media. For those who come from groups with significant social deprivation there is often a readiness to accept more limited clinical services. However, such differences themselves, are examples of discrimination in clinical practice. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SparseBeads data: benchmarking sparsity-regularized computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, Jakob S.; Coban, Sophia B.; Lionheart, William R. B.; McDonald, Samuel A.; Withers, Philip J.

2017-12-01

Sparsity regularization (SR) such as total variation (TV) minimization allows accurate image reconstruction in x-ray computed tomography (CT) from fewer projections than analytical methods. Exactly how few projections suffice and how this number may depend on the image remain poorly understood. Compressive sensing connects the critical number of projections to the image sparsity, but does not cover CT, however empirical results suggest a similar connection. The present work establishes for real CT data a connection between gradient sparsity and the sufficient number of projections for accurate TV-regularized reconstruction. A collection of 48 x-ray CT datasets called SparseBeads was designed for benchmarking SR reconstruction algorithms. Beadpacks comprising glass beads of five different sizes as well as mixtures were scanned in a micro-CT scanner to provide structured datasets with variable image sparsity levels, number of projections and noise levels to allow the systematic assessment of parameters affecting performance of SR reconstruction algorithms6. Using the SparseBeads data, TV-regularized reconstruction quality was assessed as a function of numbers of projections and gradient sparsity. The critical number of projections for satisfactory TV-regularized reconstruction increased almost linearly with the gradient sparsity. This establishes a quantitative guideline from which one may predict how few projections to acquire based on expected sample sparsity level as an aid in planning of dose- or time-critical experiments. The results are expected to hold for samples of similar characteristics, i.e. consisting of few, distinct phases with relatively simple structure. Such cases are plentiful in porous media, composite materials, foams, as well as non-destructive testing and metrology. For samples of other characteristics the proposed methodology may be used to investigate similar relations.

Quantifying the risks and benefits of efavirenz use in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the United States

PubMed Central

Hsu, HE; Rydzak, CE; Cotich, KL; Wang, B; Sax, PE; Losina, E; Freedberg, KA; Goldie, SJ; Lu, Z; Walensky, RP

2010-01-01

Objectives We quantified the benefits (life expectancy gains) and harms (efavirenz-related teratogenicity) associated with using efavirenz in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the United States. Methods We used data from the Women’s Interagency HIV Study in an HIV disease simulation model to estimate life expectancy in women who receive an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral regimen compared with those who delay efavirenz use and receive a boosted protease inhibitor-based initial regimen. To estimate excess risk of teratogenic events with and without efavirenz exposure per 100,000 women, we incorporated literature-based rates of pregnancy, live births, and teratogenic events into a decision analytic model. We assumed a teratogenicity risk of 2.90 events/100 live births in women exposed to efavirenz during pregnancy and 2.68/100 live births in unexposed women. Results Survival for HIV-infected women who received an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy regimen was 0.89 years greater than for women receiving non-efavirenz-based initial therapy (28.91 vs. 28.02 years). The rate of teratogenic events was 77.26/100,000 exposed women, compared with 72.46/100,000 unexposed women. Survival estimates were sensitive to variations in treatment efficacy and AIDS-related mortality. Estimates of excess teratogenic events were most sensitive to pregnancy rates and number of teratogenic events/100 live births in efavirenz-exposed women. Conclusions Use of non-efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected women of childbearing age may reduce life expectancy gains from antiretroviral treatment, but may also prevent teratogenic events. Decision-making regarding efavirenz use presents a tradeoff between these two risks; this study can inform discussions between patients and health care providers. PMID:20561082

Quantifying the risks and benefits of efavirenz use in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the USA.

PubMed

Hsu, H E; Rydzak, C E; Cotich, K L; Wang, B; Sax, P E; Losina, E; Freedberg, K A; Goldie, S J; Lu, Z; Walensky, R P

2011-02-01

The aim of the study was to quantify the benefits (life expectancy gains) and risks (efavirenz-related teratogenicity) associated with using efavirenz in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the USA. We used data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study in an HIV disease simulation model to estimate life expectancy in women who receive an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral regimen compared with those who delay efavirenz use and receive a boosted protease inhibitor-based initial regimen. To estimate excess risk of teratogenic events with and without efavirenz exposure per 100,000 women, we incorporated literature-based rates of pregnancy, live births, and teratogenic events into a decision analytic model. We assumed a teratogenicity risk of 2.90 events/100 live births in women exposed to efavirenz during pregnancy and 2.68/100 live births in unexposed women. Survival for HIV-infected women who received an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen was 0.89 years greater than for women receiving non-efavirenz-based initial therapy (28.91 vs. 28.02 years). The rate of teratogenic events was 77.26/100,000 exposed women, compared with 72.46/100,000 unexposed women. Survival estimates were sensitive to variations in treatment efficacy and AIDS-related mortality. Estimates of excess teratogenic events were most sensitive to pregnancy rates and number of teratogenic events/100 live births in efavirenz-exposed women. Use of non-efavirenz-based initial ART in HIV-infected women of childbearing age may reduce life expectancy gains from antiretroviral treatment, but may also prevent teratogenic events. Decision-making regarding efavirenz use presents a trade-off between these two risks; this study can inform discussions between patients and health care providers.

Replica and extreme-value analysis of the Jarzynski free-energy estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palassini, Matteo; Ritort, Felix

2008-03-01

We analyze the Jarzynski estimator of free-energy differences from nonequilibrium work measurements. By a simple mapping onto Derrida's Random Energy Model, we obtain a scaling limit for the expectation of the bias of the estimator. We then derive analytical approximations in three different regimes of the scaling parameter x = log(N)/W, where N is the number of measurements and W the mean dissipated work. Our approach is valid for a generic distribution of the dissipated work, and is based on a replica symmetry breaking scheme for x >> 1, the asymptotic theory of extreme value statistics for x << 1, and a direct approach for x near one. The combination of the three analytic approximations describes well Monte Carlo data for the expectation value of the estimator, for a wide range of values of N, from N=1 to large N, and for different work distributions. Based on these results, we introduce improved free-energy estimators and discuss the application to the analysis of experimental data.

Thermal performance of Al2O3 in water - ethylene glycol nanofluid mixture as cooling medium in mini channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Irnie Azlin; Mohamed, Wan Ahmad Najmi Wan; Mamat, Aman Mohd Ihsan; Sainan, Khairul Imran; Talib, Siti Fatimah Abu

2015-08-01

Continuous need for an optimum conversion efficiency of a Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) operation has triggered varieties of advancements namely on the thermal management engineering scope. Nanofluids as an innovative heat transfer fluid solution are expected to be a promising candidate for alternative coolant in mini channel cooling plate of PEMFC. In this work, heat transfer performance of low concentration of 0.1, 0.3 and 0.5 % Al2O3 in water: Ethylene glycol (EG) mixtures of 100:0 and 50:50 nanofluids have been studied and compared against its base fluids at Re number ranging from 10 to 100. A steady, laminar and incompressible flow with constant heat flux is assumed in the channel of 140mm × 200mm. It was found that nanofluids have performed better than the base fluid but the demerit is on the pumping power due to the higher pressure drop across mini channel geometry as expected.

Rational allocation of Australia's research dollars: does the distribution of NHMRC funding by National Health Priority Area reflect actual disease burden?

PubMed

Mitchell, Rebecca J; McClure, Rod J; Olivier, Jake; Watson, Wendy L

To explore National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) funding for each National Health Priority Area (NHPA) over time and by grant type, and to quantify the relationship between grants awarded and a range of measures of societal burden of disease (BoD). We conducted a retrospective analysis of NHMRC funding for each NHPA from 2000 to 2008 to assess the strength of correlation between level of NHMRC funding and contribution of each health condition to BoD. Information on mortality, incidence, prevalence, "healthy" years of life lost due to disability (YLD), years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was obtained from the 2003 Australian BoD study. Information on health system expenditure for each NHPA was obtained from an Australian Institute of Health and Welfare report. Observed versus expected number of grants; amount of funding allocated to each NHPA; relative contribution of each NHPA health condition to BoD. 6099 new and continuing NHMRC grants were linked to NHPAs. Total NHMRC funding by NHPA was strongly correlated with YLL and DALYs, but there was no clear association between the amount of funding per NHPA and YLD or health system expenditure. Based on the proportional contribution of each NHPA health condition to total NHPA-related DALYs, a higher than expected number of grants was allocated to diabetes and cancer research, and a lower than expected number to injury and mental health research. Some of Australia's NHPAs are better funded than others. The NHMRC could begin to redress this imbalance by allocating research and workforce development funding to less well developed research areas to ensure appropriate resourcing that is commensurate with their contribution to BoD.

Pygmalion in Media-Based Learning: Effects of Quality Expectancies on Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fries, Stefan; Horz, Holger; Haimerl, Charlotte

2006-01-01

Two studies investigated how quality expectations affect students' outcomes of media-based learning. Experiment 1 (N=62) demonstrated that students expecting a high-end computer-based training programme learned most, whereas students expecting a programme of ambiguous quality learned least and students having no expectations performed in between.…

Improving receiver performance of diffusive molecular communication with enzymes.

PubMed

Noel, Adam; Cheung, Karen C; Schober, Robert

2014-03-01

This paper studies the mitigation of intersymbol interference in a diffusive molecular communication system using enzymes that freely diffuse in the propagation environment. The enzymes form reaction intermediates with information molecules and then degrade them so that they cannot interfere with future transmissions. A lower bound expression on the expected number of molecules measured at the receiver is derived. A simple binary receiver detection scheme is proposed where the number of observed molecules is sampled at the time when the maximum number of molecules is expected. Insight is also provided into the selection of an appropriate bit interval. The expected bit error probability is derived as a function of the current and all previously transmitted bits. Simulation results show the accuracy of the bit error probability expression and the improvement in communication performance by having active enzymes present.

Burden of suicide in Poland in 2012: how could it be measured and how big is it?

PubMed

Orlewska, Katarzyna; Orlewska, Ewa

2018-04-01

The aim of our study was to estimate the health-related and economic burden of suicide in Poland in 2012 and to demonstrate the effects of using different assumptions on the disease burden estimation. Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated by multiplying the number of deaths by the remaining life expectancy. Local expected YLL (LEYLL) and standard expected YLL (SEYLL) were computed using Polish life expectancy tables and WHO standards, respectively. In the base case analysis LEYLL and SEYLL were computed with 3.5 and 0% discount rates, respectively, and no age-weighting. Premature mortality costs were calculated using a human capital approach, with discounting at 5%, and are reported in Polish zloty (PLN) (1 euro = 4.3 PLN). The impact of applying different assumptions on base-case estimates was tested in sensitivity analyses. The total LEYLLs and SEYLLs due to suicide were 109,338 and 279,425, respectively, with 88% attributable to male deaths. The cost of male premature mortality (2,808,854,532 PLN) was substantially higher than for females (177,852,804 PLN). Discounting and age-weighting have a large effect on the base case estimates of LEYLLs. The greatest impact on the estimates of suicide-related premature mortality costs was due to the value of the discount rate. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the burden of suicide. In our opinion each of the demonstrated methods brings something valuable to the evaluation of the impact of suicide on a given population, but LEYLLs and premature mortality costs estimated according to national guidelines have the potential to be useful for local public health policymakers.

Multiple-predators-based capture process on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramiz Sharafat, Rajput; Pu, Cunlai; Li, Jie; Chen, Rongbin; Xu, Zhongqi

2017-03-01

The predator/prey (capture) problem is a prototype of many network-related applications. We study the capture process on complex networks by considering multiple predators from multiple sources. In our model, some lions start from multiple sources simultaneously to capture the lamb by biased random walks, which are controlled with a free parameter $\\alpha$. We derive the distribution of the lamb's lifetime and the expected lifetime $\\left\\langle T\\right\\rangle $. Through simulation, we find that the expected lifetime drops substantially with the increasing number of lions. We also study how the underlying topological structure affects the capture process, and obtain that locating on small-degree nodes is better than large-degree nodes to prolong the lifetime of the lamb. Moreover, dense or homogeneous network structures are against the survival of the lamb.

Estimating the Number of Organ Donors in Australian Hospitals—Implications for Monitoring Organ Donation Practices

PubMed Central

Pilcher, David; Gladkis, Laura; Arcia, Byron; Bailey, Michael; Cook, David; Cass, Yael; Opdam, Helen

2015-01-01

Background The Australian DonateLife Audit captures information on all deaths which occur in emergency departments, intensive care units and in those recently discharged from intensive care unit. This information provides the opportunity to estimate the number of donors expected, given present consent rates and contemporary donation practices. This may then allow benchmarking of performance between hospitals and jurisdictions. Our aim was to develop a method to estimate the number of donors using data from the DonateLife Audit on the basis of baseline patient characteristics alone. Methods All intubated patient deaths at contributing hospitals were analyzed. Univariate comparisons of donors to nondonors were performed. A logistic regression model was developed to estimate expected donor numbers from data collected between July 2012 and December 2013. This was validated using data from January to April 2014. Results Between July 2012 and April 2014, 6861 intubated patient deaths at 68 hospitals were listed on the DonateLife Audit of whom 553 (8.1%) were organ donors. Factors independently associated with organ donation included age, brain death, neurological diagnoses, chest x-ray findings, PaO2/FiO2, creatinine, alanine transaminase, cancer, cardiac arrest, chronic heart disease, and peripheral vascular disease. A highly discriminatory (area under the receiver operatory characteristic, 0.940 [95% confidence interval, 0.924-0.957]) and well-calibrated prediction model was developed which accurately estimated donor numbers. Three hospitals appeared to have higher numbers of actual donors than expected. Conclusions It is possible to estimate the expected number of organ donors. This may assist benchmarking of donation outcomes and interpretation of changes in donation rates over time. PMID:25919766

Combining counts and incidence data: an efficient approach for estimating the log-normal species abundance distribution and diversity indices.

PubMed

Bellier, Edwige; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Schartau, Ann Kristin; Diserud, Ola H; Finstad, Anders G

2012-10-01

Obtaining accurate estimates of diversity indices is difficult because the number of species encountered in a sample increases with sampling intensity. We introduce a novel method that requires that the presence of species in a sample to be assessed while the counts of the number of individuals per species are only required for just a small part of the sample. To account for species included as incidence data in the species abundance distribution, we modify the likelihood function of the classical Poisson log-normal distribution. Using simulated community assemblages, we contrast diversity estimates based on a community sample, a subsample randomly extracted from the community sample, and a mixture sample where incidence data are added to a subsample. We show that the mixture sampling approach provides more accurate estimates than the subsample and at little extra cost. Diversity indices estimated from a freshwater zooplankton community sampled using the mixture approach show the same pattern of results as the simulation study. Our method efficiently increases the accuracy of diversity estimates and comprehension of the left tail of the species abundance distribution. We show how to choose the scale of sample size needed for a compromise between information gained, accuracy of the estimates and cost expended when assessing biological diversity. The sample size estimates are obtained from key community characteristics, such as the expected number of species in the community, the expected number of individuals in a sample and the evenness of the community.

Does everything happen when you are young? Introducing the youth bias.

PubMed

Koppel, Jonathan; Berntsen, Dorthe

2014-01-01

The reminiscence bump refers to the disproportionate number of individuals' autobiographical memories that date from young adulthood. A similar bump is found in cultural life scripts: When people are asked to nominate and date major transitional events in a typical life course in their culture, a disproportionate number of the events cited are likewise expected to occur in young adulthood. Across two online studies, we tested whether these effects reflect a broader tendency to ascribe most important events to young adulthood. Specifically, we probed, in adult USA samples, for when individuals expect the most important public event of a typical person's life to take place. Although the occurrence of such public events should be randomly distributed across the lifespan, we found a bump in young adulthood. We found this bump in both subjective (Study 1; probing cultural expectations for the expected timing of the public event that a typical person considers to be the most important of their lifetime) and objective (Study 2; probing cultural expectations for the expected timing of the objectively most important public event of a typical person's lifetime) conditions. We term this set of cultural expectations the youth bias and discuss its implications for human cognition.

Review on fatigue behavior of high-strength concrete after high temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dongfu; Jia, Penghe; Gao, Haijing

2017-06-01

The fatigue of high-strength concrete after high temperature has begun to attract attention. But so far the researches work about the fatigue of high-strength concrete after high temperature have not been reported. This article based on a large number of literature. The research work about the fatigue of high-strength concrete after high temperature are reviewed, analysed and expected, which can provide some reference for the experimental study of fatigue damage analysis.

Search for sterile neutrino mixing in the νμ → ντ appearance channel with the OPERA detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauri, N.

2016-11-01

The OPERA experiment has observed muon neutrino to tau neutrino oscillations in the atmospheric sector in appearance mode. Five ντ candidate events have been detected, a number consistent with the expectation from the "standard" 3ν framework. Based on this result new limits on the mixing parameters of a massive sterile neutrino have been set. The analysis is performed in the 3+1 neutrino model.

Are Alcohol Expectancies Associations? Comment on Moss and Albery (2009)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiers, Reinout W.; Stacy, Alan W.

2010-01-01

Moss and Albery (2009) presented a dual-process model of the alcohol-behavior link, integrating alcohol expectancy and alcohol myopia theory. Their integrative theory rests on a number of assumptions including, first, that alcohol expectancies are associations that can be activated automatically by an alcohol-relevant context, and second, that…

Methodological Options and Their Implications: An Example Using Secondary Data to Analyze Latino Educational Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Ryan S.; Lynch, Cassie M.; Seifert, Tricia A.

2011-01-01

A number of studies over decades have examined determinants of educational expectations. However, even among the subset of quantitative studies, there is considerable variation in the methods used to operationally define and analyze expectations. Using a systematic literature review and several regression methods to analyze Latino students'…

Historic cohort study in Montreal's fur industry.

PubMed

Guay, D; Siemiatycki, J

1987-01-01

A historic cohort mortality study was carried out among two groups of male workers in the Montreal fur industry: 263 dressers and dyers and 599 fur garment manufacturers. The first group is exposed to a very wide variety of chemicals used in tanning, cleaning, and dyeing fur, including substances considered to be carcinogenic and/or mutagenic. The second group is exposed to residue from the dressing and dyeing stage and to respirable fur dust. The cohorts consisted of all active members of two unions as of January 1, 1966. The mean age of the workers was 43.2 and the mean number of years since first employment 14.1. The follow-up period was from January 1, 1966, to December 31, 1981; 95% of the workers were successfully traced. Observed deaths were compared with those expected based on mortality rates of the population of metropolitan Montreal. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for the manufacturers were significantly low, probably because of the ethnic composition of the cohort and a healthy worker effect. SMRs for the dressers and dyers were also low, but not as low as for the manufacturers. When attention was restricted to the French Canadians in the cohort, the observed deaths were close to the expected; there was a noteworthy excess of colorectal cancer (four observed, 0.8 expected) for dressers and dyers. Apart from this weak suggestive evidence, the results did not indicate any excess mortality risks in the fur industry. However, because of the relatively small number of expected and observed deaths in the cohort and especially among the heavily exposed dressers and dyers, the confidence intervals around SMR estimates were wide and excess risks cannot be ruled out.

Employment in French young adult survivors of childhood leukemia: an LEA study (for Leucemies de l'Enfant et de l'Adolescent-childhood and adolescent leukemia).

PubMed

Berbis, Julie; Reggio, Céline; Michel, Gérard; Chastagner, Pascal; Bertrand, Yves; Kanold, Justyna; Sirvent, Nicolas; Plantaz, Dominique; Baruchel, André; Tabone, Marie-Dominique; Garnier, Floriane; Lehucher-Michel, Marie-Pascale; Auquier, Pascal

2016-12-01

Our principal aim was to assess the occupational outcomes of French survivors of childhood leukemia, compared to national population. The secondary objective was to identify determinants linked with employment stability after childhood leukemia. All survivors aged 15 and over enrolled in the French LEA Cohort (Childhood and Adolescent Leukemia) were included. Occupational data were self-reported. The occupational distributions expected in the cohort for each age range were established based on the distribution in France as reference, and comparisons between observed and expected distributions were performed. Logistic regression model was used to explore determinants of stability of survivors' employment. The questionnaire was completed by 845 eligible survivors (response rate 87.8 %), with a mean age of 22.3 ± 5.4 years and a mean follow-up duration of 14.3 ± 6.3 years. Among the 361 survivors currently in the labor market, 36 (10.0 %) were seeking a job, which is significantly lower than expected (19.3 %) compared to French population. Conversely, among those currently employed, the number of survivors in unstable employment (43.9 %) was significantly higher than expected (33.5 %). Younger age and higher number of late effects were risk factors for unstable employment. While the employment rate of the young French adult population of childhood leukemia survivors seems rather positive, access to a steady job appears to be compromised for some survivors. A strategy to better identify particular subgroups of survivors at greatest risk for difficulties in their professional achievement will help ensure the development of specific intervention strategies and support procedures.

Anomalous I-V curve for mono-atomic carbon chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Bo; Sanvito, Stefano; Fang, Haiping

2010-10-01

The electronic transport properties of mono-atomic carbon chains were studied theoretically using a combination of density functional theory and the non-equilibrium Green's functions method. The I-V curves for the chains composed of an even number of atoms and attached to gold electrodes through sulfur exhibit two plateaus where the current becomes bias independent. In contrast, when the number of carbon atoms in the chain is odd, the electric current simply increases monotonically with bias. This peculiar behavior is attributed to dimerization of the chains, directly resulting from their one-dimensional nature. The finding is expected to be helpful in designing molecular devices, such as carbon-chain-based transistors and sensors, for nanoscale and biological applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voyles, Jimmy

Individual datastreams from instrumentation at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility fixed and mobile research observatories (sites) are collected and routed to the ARM Data Center (ADC). The Data Management Facility (DMF), a component of the ADC, executes datastream processing in near-real time. Processed data are then delivered approximately daily to the ARM Data Archive, also a component of the ADC, where they are made freely available to the research community. For each instrument, ARM calculates the ratio of the actual number of processed data records received daily at the ARM Data Archivemore » to the expected number of data records. DOE requires national user facilities to report time-based operating data.« less

Comprehension priming as rational expectation for repetition: Evidence from syntactic processing.

PubMed

Myslín, Mark; Levy, Roger

2016-02-01

Why do comprehenders process repeated stimuli more rapidly than novel stimuli? We consider an adaptive explanation for why such facilitation may be beneficial: priming is a consequence of expectation for repetition due to rational adaptation to the environment. If occurrences of a stimulus cluster in time, given one occurrence it is rational to expect a second occurrence closely following. Leveraging such knowledge may be particularly useful in online processing of language, where pervasive clustering may help comprehenders negotiate the considerable challenge of continual expectation update at multiple levels of linguistic structure and environmental variability. We test this account in the domain of structural priming in syntax, making use of the sentential complement-direct object (SC-DO) ambiguity. We first show that sentences containing SC continuations cluster in natural language, motivating an expectation for repetition of this structure. Second, we show that comprehenders are indeed sensitive to the syntactic clustering properties of their current environment. In a series of between-groups self-paced reading studies, we find that participants who are exposed to clusters of SC sentences subsequently process repetitions of SC structure more rapidly than participants who are exposed to the same number of SCs spaced in time, and attribute the difference to the learned degree of expectation for repetition. We model this behavior through Bayesian belief update, showing that (the optimal degree of) sensitivity to clustering properties of syntactic structures is indeed learnable through experience. Comprehension priming effects are thus consistent with rational expectation for repetition based on adaptation to the linguistic environment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comprehension priming as rational expectation for repetition: Evidence from syntactic processing

PubMed Central

Levy, Roger

2015-01-01

Why do comprehenders process repeated stimuli more rapidly than novel stimuli? We consider an adaptive explanation for why such facilitation may be beneficial: priming is a consequence of expectation for repetition due to rational adaptation to the environment. If occurrences of a stimulus cluster in time, given one occurrence it is rational to expect a second occurrence closely following. Leveraging such knowledge may be particularly useful in online processing of language, where pervasive clustering may help comprehenders negotiate the considerable challenge of continual expectation update at multiple levels of linguistic structure and environmental variability. We test this account in the domain of structural priming in syntax, making use of the sentential complement-direct object (SC-DO) ambiguity. We first show that sentences containing SC continuations cluster in natural language, motivating an expectation for repetition of this structure. Second, we show that comprehenders are indeed sensitive to the syntactic clustering properties of their current environment. In a series of between-groups self-paced reading studies, we find that participants who are exposed to clusters of SC sentences subsequently process repetitions of SC structure more rapidly than participants who are exposed to the same number of SCs spaced in time, and attribute the difference to the learned degree of expectation for repetition. We model this behavior through Bayesian belief update, showing that (the optimal degree of) sensitivity to clustering properties of syntactic structures is indeed learnable through experience. Comprehension priming effects are thus consistent with rational expectation for repetition based on adaptation to the linguistic environment. PMID:26605963

A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece.

PubMed

Iliadis, Lazaros S; Papastavrou, Anastasios K; Lefakis, Panagiotis D

2002-07-01

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85.25% for 1995 and 80.89% for 1994. This makes the Expert System a very important tool for forest fire prevention planning.

Displacement Based Multilevel Structural Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobieszezanski-Sobieski, J.; Striz, A. G.

1996-01-01

In the complex environment of true multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO), efficiency is one of the most desirable attributes of any approach. In the present research, a new and highly efficient methodology for the MDO subset of structural optimization is proposed and detailed, i.e., for the weight minimization of a given structure under size, strength, and displacement constraints. Specifically, finite element based multilevel optimization of structures is performed. In the system level optimization, the design variables are the coefficients of assumed polynomially based global displacement functions, and the load unbalance resulting from the solution of the global stiffness equations is minimized. In the subsystems level optimizations, the weight of each element is minimized under the action of stress constraints, with the cross sectional dimensions as design variables. The approach is expected to prove very efficient since the design task is broken down into a large number of small and efficient subtasks, each with a small number of variables, which are amenable to parallel computing.

Comparative in vitro study of cholinium-based ionic liquids and deep eutectic solvents toward fish cell line.

PubMed

Radošević, Kristina; Železnjak, Jelena; Cvjetko Bubalo, Marina; Radojčić Redovniković, Ivana; Slivac, Igor; Gaurina Srček, Višnja

2016-09-01

With the advent of ionic liquids, much was expected concerning their applicability as an alternative to organic solvents in the chemical technology and biotechnology fields. However, the most studied and commonly used ionic liquids based on imidazolium and pyridinium were found not to be as environmentally friendly as it was first expected. Therefore, a new generation of alternative solvents named natural ionic liquids and deep eutectic solvents, composed of natural and/or renewable compounds, have come into focus in recent years. Since the number of newly synthesized chemicals increases yearly, simple and reliable methods for their ecotoxicological assessment are necessary. Permanent fish cell lines can serve as a test system for the evaluation of a chemical's cytotoxicity. This paper presents research results on the cytotoxic effects on Channel Catfish Ovary (CCO) cell line induced by fifteen cholinium-based ionic liquids and deep eutectic solvents. Based on the decrease in cell viability, the most obvious toxic effect on CCO cells was caused by ionic liquid choline oxalate, while other solvents tested exhibited low cytotoxicity. Therefore, we can conclude that cholinium-based ionic liquids and deep eutectic solvents are comparatively less toxic to CCO cells than conventional ionic liquids. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Power-Efficient Clustering Protocol for Coal Mine Face Monitoring with Wireless Sensor Networks Under Channel Fading Conditions

PubMed Central

Ren, Peng; Qian, Jiansheng

2016-01-01

This study proposes a novel power-efficient and anti-fading clustering based on a cross-layer that is specific to the time-varying fading characteristics of channels in the monitoring of coal mine faces with wireless sensor networks. The number of active sensor nodes and a sliding window are set up such that the optimal number of cluster heads (CHs) is selected in each round. Based on a stable expected number of CHs, we explore the channel efficiency between nodes and the base station by using a probe frame and the joint surplus energy in assessing the CH selection. Moreover, the sending power of a node in different periods is regulated by the signal fade margin method. The simulation results demonstrate that compared with several common algorithms, the power-efficient and fading-aware clustering with a cross-layer (PEAFC-CL) protocol features a stable network topology and adaptability under signal time-varying fading, which effectively prolongs the lifetime of the network and reduces network packet loss, thus making it more applicable to the complex and variable environment characteristic of a coal mine face. PMID:27338380

Implementation of four layer automatic elevator controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, B. K. V.; Kumar, P. Satish; Charles, B. S.; Srilakshmi, G.

2017-07-01

In this modern era, elevators have become an integral part of any commercial or public complex. It facilitates the faster movement of people and luggage between floors. The lift control system is one among the keenest aspects in electronics controlling module that are used in auto motive filed. Usually elevators are designed for a specific building taking into account the main factors like the measure of the building, the count of persons travelling to each floor and the expected periods of large usage. The lift system was designed with different control strategies. This implementation is based on FPGA, which could be used for any building with any number of floors, with the necessary inputs and outputs. This controller can be implemented based on the required number of floors by merely changing a control variable from the HDL code. This approach is based on an algorithm which reduces the number of computation necessary, on concentrating only on the relevant principles that improves the score and ability of the club of elevator structure. The elevator controller is developed using Verilog HDL and is perfectly executed on a Xilinx ISE 12.4 and Spartan -3E FPGA.

The State of US Health, 1990-2010: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Importance Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. Objectives To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Design We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. Results US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th. Conclusions and Relevance From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations. PMID:23842577

The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

PubMed

Murray, Christopher J L; Atkinson, Charles; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Burstein, Roy; Chou, David; Dellavalle, Robert; Danaei, Goodarz; Ezzati, Majid; Fahimi, A; Flaxman, D; Foreman; Gabriel, Sherine; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lopez; MacIntyre, Michael F; Mokdad, A H; Moran, A; Moran, Andrew E; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Moshen; Pope, C; Roberts, Thomas; Salomon, Joshua; Schwebel, David C; Shahraz, Saeid; Sleet, David A; Murray; Abraham, Jerry; Ali, Mohammed K; Atkinson, Charles; Bartels, David H; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Burstein, Roy; Chen, Honglei; Criqui, Michael H; Dahodwala; Jarlais; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Ebel, Beth E; Ezzati, Majid; Fahami; Flaxman, S; Flaxman, A D; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Grant, Bridget; Hagan, Holly; Hoffman, Howard; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Leasher, Janet L; Lin, John; Lipshultz, Steven E; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mallinger, Leslie; McDermott, Mary M; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R; Mokdad, A A; Mokdad, A H; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Naghavi, Mohsen; Narayan, K M Venkat; Omer, Saad B; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Phillips, David; Ranganathan, Dharani; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Schwebel, David C; Sharaz, Saeid; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, David; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Wilkinson, James D; Zabetian, Azadeh; Murray; Abraham, Jerry; Ali, Mohammad K; Alvardo, Miriam; Atkinson, Charles; Baddour, Larry M; Benjamin, Emelia J; Bhalla, Kavi; Birbeck, Gretchen; Bolliger, Ian; Burstein, Roy; Carnahan, Emily; Chou, David; Chugh, Sumeet S; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cooper, Leslie T; Couser, William; Criqui, Michael H; Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C; Dellavalle, Robert P; Jarlais; Dicker, Daniel; Dorsey, E Ray; Duber, Herbert; Ebel, Beth E; Engell, Rebecca E; Ezzati, Majid; Felson, David T; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Flaxman, A D; Fleming, Thomas; Foreman; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gillum, Richard F; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Gosselin, Richard; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hagan, Holly; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hoffman, Howard; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; James, Spencer L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jayarman, Sudha; Johns, Nicole; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lan, Qing; Leasher, Janet L; Lim, Stephen; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lopez; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mallinger, Leslie; Meltzer, Michele; Mensah, George A; Michaud, Catherine; Miller, Ted R; Mock, Charles; Moffitt, Terrie E; Mokdad, A A; Mokdad, A H; Moran, A; Naghavi, Mohsen; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nelson, Robert G; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Ortblad, Katrina; Ostro, Bart; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Phillips, David; Raju, Murugesan; Razavi, Homie; Ritz, Beate; Roberts, Thomas; Sacco, Ralph L; Salomon, Joshua; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Schwebel, David C; Shahraz, Saeid; Shibuya, Kenji; Silberberg, Donald; Singh, Jasvinder A; Steenland, Kyle; Taylor, Jennifer A; Thurston, George D; Vavilala, Monica S; Vos, Theo; Wagner, Gregory R; Weinstock, Martin A; Weisskopf, Marc G; Wulf, Sarah; Murray

2013-08-14

Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th. From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

Comparison of two hardware-based hit filtering methods for trackers in high-pileup environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gradin, J.; Mårtensson, M.; Brenner, R.

2018-04-01

As experiments in high energy physics aim to measure increasingly rare processes, the experiments continually strive to increase the expected signal yields. In the case of the High Luminosity upgrade of the LHC, the luminosity is raised by increasing the number of simultaneous proton-proton interactions, so-called pile-up. This increases the expected yields of signal and background processes alike. The signal is embedded in a large background of processes that mimic that of signal events. It is therefore imperative for the experiments to develop new triggering methods to effectively distinguish the interesting events from the background. We present a comparison of two methods for filtering detector hits to be used for triggering on particle tracks: one based on a pattern matching technique using Associative Memory (AM) chips and the other based on the Hough transform. Their efficiency and hit rejection are evaluated for proton-proton collisions with varying amounts of pile-up using a simulation of a generic silicon tracking detector. It is found that, while both methods are feasible options for a track trigger with single muon efficiencies around 98–99%, the AM based pattern matching produces a lower number of hit combinations with respect to the Hough transform whilst keeping more of the true signal hits. We also present the effect on the two methods of increasing the amount of support material in the detector and of introducing inefficiencies by deactivating detector modules. The increased support material has negligable effects on the efficiency for both methods, while dropping 5% (10%) of the available modules decreases the efficiency to about 95% (87%) for both methods, irrespective of the amount of pile-up.

The development of a lay health worker delivered collaborative community based intervention for people with schizophrenia in India

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Care for schizophrenia in low and middle income countries is predominantly facility based and led by specialists, with limited use of non-pharmacological treatments. Although community based psychosocial interventions are emphasised, there is little evidence about their acceptability and feasibility. Furthermore, the shortage of skilled manpower is a major barrier to improving access to these interventions. Our study aimed to develop a lay health worker delivered community based intervention in three sites in India. This paper describes how the intervention was developed systematically, following the MRC framework for the development of complex interventions. Methods We reviewed the lierature on the burden of schizophrenia and the treatment gap in low and middle income countries and the evidence for community based treatments, and identified intervention components. We then evaluated the acceptability and feasibility of this package of care through formative case studies with individuals with schizophrenia and their primary caregivers and piloted its delivery with 30 families. Results Based on the reviews, our intervention comprised five components (psycho-education; adherence management; rehabilitation; referral to community agencies; and health promotion) to be delivered by trained lay health workers supervised by specialists. The intervention underwent a number of changes as a result of formative and pilot work. While all the components were acceptable and most were feasible, experiences of stigma and discrimination were inadequately addressed; some participants feared that delivery of care at home would lead to illness disclosure; some participants and providers did not understand how the intervention related to usual care; some families were unwilling to participate; and there were delivery problems, for example, in meeting the targeted number of sessions. Participants found delivery by health workers acceptable, and expected them to have knowledge about the subject matter. Some had expectations regarding their demographic and personal characteristics, for example, preferring only females or those who are understanding/friendly. New components to address stigma were then added to the intervention, the collaborative nature of service provision was strengthened, a multi-level supervision system was developed, and delivery of components was made more flexible. Criteria were evolved for the selection and training of the health workers based on participants' expectations. Conclusions A multi-component community based intervention, targeting multiple outcomes, and delivered by trained lay health workers, supervised by mental health specialists, is an acceptable and feasible intervention for treating schizophrenia in India. PMID:22340662

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Driver's mental workload prediction model based on physiological indices.

PubMed

Yan, Shengyuan; Tran, Cong Chi; Wei, Yingying; Habiyaremye, Jean Luc

2017-09-15

Developing an early warning model to predict the driver's mental workload (MWL) is critical and helpful, especially for new or less experienced drivers. The present study aims to investigate the correlation between new drivers' MWL and their work performance, regarding the number of errors. Additionally, the group method of data handling is used to establish the driver's MWL predictive model based on subjective rating (NASA task load index [NASA-TLX]) and six physiological indices. The results indicate that the NASA-TLX and the number of errors are positively correlated, and the predictive model shows the validity of the proposed model with an R 2 value of 0.745. The proposed model is expected to provide a reference value for the new drivers of their MWL by providing the physiological indices, and the driving lesson plans can be proposed to sustain an appropriate MWL as well as improve the driver's work performance.

Assessment of questionnaire-based PCB exposure focused on food frequency in birth cohorts in Japan.

PubMed

Eguchi, Akifumi; Otake, Masae; Hanazato, Masamichi; Suzuki, Norimichi; Matsuno, Yoshiharu; Nakaoka, Hiroko; Todaka, Emiko; Mori, Chisato

2017-02-01

We investigated the relationship between food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) responses and serum polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) levels of mothers and fathers recruited from the Chiba Regional Center, which is one of the 15 regional centers of the Japan Environment and Children's Study (mothers: n = 1477, fathers: n = 219). The expected PCB values were estimated from the participants' FFQ answers and medical records (age, body mass index and number of deliveries). Based on the stepwise forward selection results of Bayesian regression models, age and fish and egg consumption were positively associated with PCB concentrations and a number of deliveries were negatively associated with PCB concentrations in mothers, whereas only age was positively associated with PCB concentrations in fathers.These findings indicated that the estimation of daily dietary intake may be useful for the prediction of PCB concentration for mothers.

The role of hard turbulent thermal convection in the Earth's early thermal evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, Ulli; Yuen, David A.; Zhao, Wuling; Malevsky, Andrei V.

1992-01-01

In the last several years great progress was made in the study of a new transition in thermal convection, called hard turbulence. Initial experiments were conducted with helium gas, then with water. It was shown that for base-heated Newtonian convection a transition occurred at Rayleigh numbers between 10(exp 7) and 10(exp 8). This transition is characterized by the appearance of disconnected plume structures in contrast to continuous plumes with mushroom-shaped tops found for lower Rayleigh numbers. This new hydrodynamic transition is expected to play an important role in reshaping our concepts of mantle convection in the early stages of planetary evolution. We have conducted two-dimensional calculations for large and small aspect-ratio configuration to see whether such a transition would take place for infinite Prandtl number fluids.

Diffusion of an Evidence-Based Smoking Cessation Intervention Through Facebook: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Cobb, Nathan K; Jacobs, Megan A; Wileyto, Paul; Valente, Thomas; Graham, Amanda L

2016-06-01

To examine the diffusion of an evidence-based smoking cessation application ("app") through Facebook social networks and identify specific intervention components that accelerate diffusion. Between December 2012 and October 2013, we recruited adult US smokers ("seeds") via Facebook advertising and randomized them to 1 of 12 app variants using a factorial design. App variants targeted components of diffusion: duration of use (t), "contagiousness" (β), and number of contacts (Z). The primary outcome was the reproductive ratio (R), defined as the number of individuals installing the app ("descendants") divided by the number of a seed participant's Facebook friends. We randomized 9042 smokers. App utilization metrics demonstrated between-variant differences in expected directions. The highest level of diffusion (R = 0.087) occurred when we combined active contagion strategies with strategies to increase duration of use (incidence rate ratio = 9.99; 95% confidence interval = 5.58, 17.91; P < .001). Involving nonsmokers did not affect diffusion. The maximal R value (0.087) is sufficient to increase the numbers of individuals receiving treatment if applied on a large scale. Online interventions can be designed a priori to spread through social networks.

Oral processing characteristics of solid savoury meal components, and relationship with food composition, sensory attributes and expected satiation.

PubMed

Forde, C G; van Kuijk, N; Thaler, T; de Graaf, C; Martin, N

2013-01-01

The modern food supply is often dominated by a large variety of energy dense, softly textured foods that can be eaten quickly. Previous studies suggest that particular oral processing characteristics such as large bite size and lack of chewing activity contribute to the low satiating efficiency of these foods. To better design meals that promote greater feelings of satiation, we need an accurate picture of the oral processing characteristics of a range of solid food items that could be used to replace softer textures during a normal hot meal. The primary aim of this study was to establish an accurate picture of the oral processing characteristics of a set of solid savoury meal components. The secondary aim was to determine the associations between oral processing characteristics, food composition, sensory properties, and expected satiation. In a within subjects design, 15 subjects consumed 50 g of 35 different savoury food items over 5 sessions. The 35 foods represented various staples, vegetables and protein rich foods such a meat and fish. Subjects were video-recorded during consumption and measures included observed number of bites, number of chews, number of swallows and derived measures such as chewing rate, eating rate, bite size, and oral exposure time. Subjects rated expected satiation for a standard 200 g portion of each food using a 100mm and the sensory differences between foods were quantified using descriptive analysis with a trained sensory panel. Statistical analysis focussed on the oral processing characteristics and associations between nutritional, sensory and expected satiation parameters of each food. Average number of chews for 50 g of food varied from 27 for mashed potatoes to 488 for tortilla chips. Oral exposure time was highly correlated with the total number of chews, and varied from 27 s for canned tomatoes to 350 s for tortilla chips. Chewing rate was relatively constant with an overall average chewing rate of approximately 1 chew/s. Differences in oral processing were not correlated with any macronutrients specifically. Expected satiation was positively related to protein and the sensory attributes chewiness and saltiness. Foods that consumed in smaller bites, were chewed more and for longer and expected to impart a higher satiation. This study shows a large and reliable variation in oral exposure time, number of required chews before swallowing and expected satiation across a wide variety of foods. We conclude that bite size and oral-sensory exposure time could contribute to higher satiation within a meal for equal calories. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Different realizations of Cooper-Frye sampling with conservation laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, C.; Oliinychenko, D.; Pang, L.-G.; Ryu, S.; Petersen, H.

2018-01-01

Approaches based on viscous hydrodynamics for the hot and dense stage and hadronic transport for the final dilute rescattering stage are successfully applied to the dynamic description of heavy ion reactions at high beam energies. One crucial step in such hybrid approaches is the so-called particlization, which is the transition between the hydrodynamic description and the microscopic degrees of freedom. For this purpose, individual particles are sampled on the Cooper-Frye hypersurface. In this work, four different realizations of the sampling algorithms are compared, with three of them incorporating the global conservation laws of quantum numbers in each event. The algorithms are compared within two types of scenarios: a simple ‘box’ hypersurface consisting of only one static cell and a typical particlization hypersurface for Au+Au collisions at \\sqrt{{s}{NN}}=200 {GeV}. For all algorithms the mean multiplicities (or particle spectra) remain unaffected by global conservation laws in the case of large volumes. In contrast, the fluctuations of the particle numbers are affected considerably. The fluctuations of the newly developed SPREW algorithm based on the exponential weight, and the recently suggested SER algorithm based on ensemble rejection, are smaller than those without conservation laws and agree with the expectation from the canonical ensemble. The previously applied mode sampling algorithm produces dramatically larger fluctuations than expected in the corresponding microcanonical ensemble, and therefore should be avoided in fluctuation studies. This study might be of interest for the investigation of particle fluctuations and correlations, e.g. the suggested signatures for a phase transition or a critical endpoint, in hybrid approaches that are affected by global conservation laws.

A nationwide survey on the expectation of public healthcare providers on family medicine specialists in Malaysia—a qualitative analysis of 623 written comments

PubMed Central

Chew, Boon-How; Cheong, Ai-Theng; Ismail, Mastura; Hamzah, Zuhra; A-Rashid, Mohd-Radzniwan; Md-Yasin, Mazapuspavina; Ali, Norsiah

2014-01-01

Objective To examine the expectation of public healthcare providers/professionals (PHCPs) who are working closely with family medicine specialists (FMSs) at public health clinics. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting This study is part of a larger national study on the perception of the Malaysian public healthcare professionals on FMSs. Participants PHCPs from three categories of health facilities, namely hospitals, health clinics and health offices. Main outcome measures Qualitative analysis of written comments of respondents’ expectation of FMSs. Results The participants’ response rate was 58% (780/1345) with an almost equal proportion from each public healthcare facility. We identified 21 subthemes for the 623 expectation comments. The six emerging themes are (1) need for more FMSs, (2) clinical roles and functions of FMSs, (3) administrative roles of FMSs, (4) contribution to community and public health, (5) attributes improvement and (6) research and audits. FMSs were expected to give attention to clinical duty. Delivering this responsibility with competence included having the latest medical knowledge in their own and others’ medical disciplines, practising evidence-based medicine in prehospital and posthospital care, better supervision of staff and doctors under their care, fostering effective teamwork, communicating more often with hospital specialists and making appropriate referral. Expectations ranged from definite and strong for more FMSs at the health clinics to low expectation for FMSs’ involvement in research; to mal-expectation on FMSs’ involvement in community and public health programmes. Conclusions There were some remarkable differences in expectations on FMSs from the three different PHCPs. These ranged from being clinically competent and administratively available for patients and staff at the health clinics, to mal-expectations on FMSs to engage in public health affairs. Relevant parties, including FMSs themselves, could take appropriate self-improvement initiatives to enhance public practice of family medicine and patient care. Trial registration number NMRR ID: 08-12-1167. PMID:24919639

Whites but Not Blacks Gain Life Expectancy from Social Contacts.

PubMed

Assari, Shervin

2017-10-16

Background . Recent research suggests that the health gain from economic resources and psychological assets may be systematically larger for Whites than Blacks. Aim . This study aimed to assess whether the life expectancy gain associated with social contacts over a long follow up differs for Blacks and Whites. Methods . Data came from the Americans' Changing Lives (ACL) Study, 1986-2011. The sample was a nationally representative sample of American adults 25 and older, who were followed for up to 25 years ( n = 3361). Outcome was all-cause mortality. The main predictor was social contacts defined as number of regular visits with friends, relatives, and neighbors. Baseline demographics (age and gender), socioeconomic status (education, income, and employment), health behaviors (smoking and drinking), and health (chronic medical conditions, obesity, and depressive symptoms) were controlled. Race was the focal moderator. Cox proportional hazard models were used in the pooled sample and based on race. Results . More social contacts predicted higher life expectancy in the pooled sample. A significant interaction was found between race and social contacts, suggesting that the protective effect of more social contacts is smaller for Blacks than Whites. In stratified models, more social contacts predicted an increased life expectancy for Whites but not Blacks. Conclusion . Social contacts increase life expectancy for White but not Black Americans. This study introduces social contacts as another social resource that differentially affects health of Whites and Blacks.

High Expectations for Higher Education? Perceptions of College and Experiences of Stress Prior to and through the College Career

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krieg, Dana Balsink

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of students are experiencing difficulty adjusting to college. Violated expectations of college may increase the stress experienced across the college career. Therefore, 36 college students were assessed prior to matriculation, during the first year and during the senior year. Expectations and experiences of academics, social…

40 CFR 80.1449 - What are the Production Outlook Report requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... (September 1 for the report due in 2010): (1) The type, or types, of renewable fuel expected to be produced... type of renewable fuel expected to be produced or imported at each facility. (3) The number of RINs expected to be generated by the renewable fuel producer or importer for each type of renewable fuel. (4...

Estimating Planetary Boundary Layer Heights from NOAA Profiler Network Wind Profiler Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molod, Andrea M.; Salmun, H.; Dempsey, M

2015-01-01

An algorithm was developed to estimate planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights from hourly archived wind profiler data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) sites located throughout the central United States. Unlike previous studies, the present algorithm has been applied to a long record of publicly available wind profiler signal backscatter data. Under clear conditions, summertime averaged hourly time series of PBL heights compare well with Richardson-number based estimates at the few NPN stations with hourly temperature measurements. Comparisons with clear sky reanalysis based estimates show that the wind profiler PBL heights are lower by approximately 250-500 m. The geographical distribution of daily maximum PBL heights corresponds well with the expected distribution based on patterns of surface temperature and soil moisture. Wind profiler PBL heights were also estimated under mostly cloudy conditions, and are generally higher than both the Richardson number based and reanalysis PBL heights, resulting in a smaller clear-cloudy condition difference. The algorithm presented here was shown to provide a reliable summertime climatology of daytime hourly PBL heights throughout the central United States.

Monochromatic-beam-based dynamic X-ray microtomography based on OSEM-TV algorithm.

PubMed

Xu, Liang; Chen, Rongchang; Yang, Yiming; Deng, Biao; Du, Guohao; Xie, Honglan; Xiao, Tiqiao

2017-01-01

Monochromatic-beam-based dynamic X-ray computed microtomography (CT) was developed to observe evolution of microstructure inside samples. However, the low flux density results in low efficiency in data collection. To increase efficiency, reducing the number of projections should be a practical solution. However, it has disadvantages of low image reconstruction quality using the traditional filtered back projection (FBP) algorithm. In this study, an iterative reconstruction method using an ordered subset expectation maximization-total variation (OSEM-TV) algorithm was employed to address and solve this problem. The simulated results demonstrated that normalized mean square error of the image slices reconstructed by the OSEM-TV algorithm was about 1/4 of that by FBP. Experimental results also demonstrated that the density resolution of OSEM-TV was high enough to resolve different materials with the number of projections less than 100. As a result, with the introduction of OSEM-TV, the monochromatic-beam-based dynamic X-ray microtomography is potentially practicable for the quantitative and non-destructive analysis to the evolution of microstructure with acceptable efficiency in data collection and reconstructed image quality.

Effects of network node consolidation in optical access and aggregation networks on costs and power consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Christoph; Hülsermann, Ralf; Kosiankowski, Dirk; Geilhardt, Frank; Gladisch, Andreas

2010-01-01

The increasing demand for higher bit rates in access networks requires fiber deployment closer to the subscriber resulting in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) access networks. Besides higher access bit rates optical access network infrastructure and related technologies enable the network operator to establish larger service areas resulting in a simplified network structure with a lower number of network nodes. By changing the network structure network operators want to benefit from a changed network cost structure by decreasing in short and mid term the upfront investments for network equipment due to concentration effects as well as by reducing the energy costs due to a higher energy efficiency of large network sites housing a high amount of network equipment. In long term also savings in operational expenditures (OpEx) due to the closing of central office (CO) sites are expected. In this paper different architectures for optical access networks basing on state-of-the-art technology are analyzed with respect to network installation costs and power consumption in the context of access node consolidation. Network planning and dimensioning results are calculated for a realistic network scenario of Germany. All node consolidation scenarios are compared against a gigabit capable passive optical network (GPON) based FTTH access network operated from the conventional CO sites. The results show that a moderate reduction of the number of access nodes may be beneficial since in that case the capital expenditures (CapEx) do not rise extraordinarily and savings in OpEx related to the access nodes are expected. The total power consumption does not change significantly with decreasing number of access nodes but clustering effects enable a more energyefficient network operation and optimized power purchase order quantities leading to benefits in energy costs.

An Analysis of Mass Screening Strategies Using a Mathematical Model: Comparison of Breast Cancer Screening in Japan and the United States

PubMed Central

Tsunematsu, Miwako; Kakehashi, Masayuki

2015-01-01

Background Although the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) downgraded their recommendation for breast cancer screening for women aged 40–49 years in 2009, Japanese women in their 40s have been encouraged to attend breast cancer screenings since 2004. The aim of this study is to examine whether these different mass-screening strategies are justifiable by the different situations of these countries and to provide evidence for suitable judgment. Methods Performance of screening strategies (annual/biennial intervals; initiating/terminating ages) was evaluated using a mathematical model based on the natural history of breast cancer and the transition between its stages. Benefits (reduced number of deaths and extended average life expectancy) and harm (false-positives) associated with these strategies were calculated. Results Additional average life expectancy by including women in their 40s as participants were 13 days (26%) and 25 days (22%) in Japan and the United States, respectively, under the biennial screening condition; however, the respective increases in numbers of false-positive cases were 65% and 53% in Japan and the United States. Moreover, the number of screenings needed to detect one diagnosis or to avert one death was smaller when participants were limited to women of age 50 or over than when women in their 40s were included. The validity of including women in their 40s in Japan could not be determined without specifying the weight of harms compared to benefits. Conclusions Whether screening of women in their 40s in Japan is justifiable must be carefully determined based the quantitative balance of benefits and harms. PMID:25483105

Background rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes for assessing the safety of maternal vaccine trials in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Orenstein, Lauren A V; Orenstein, Evan W; Teguete, Ibrahima; Kodio, Mamoudou; Tapia, Milagritos; Sow, Samba O; Levine, Myron M

2012-01-01

Maternal immunization has gained traction as a strategy to diminish maternal and young infant mortality attributable to infectious diseases. Background rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes are crucial to interpret results of clinical trials in Sub-Saharan Africa. We developed a mathematical model that calculates a clinical trial's expected number of neonatal and maternal deaths at an interim safety assessment based on the person-time observed during different risk windows. This model was compared to crude multiplication of the maternal mortality ratio and neonatal mortality rate by the number of live births. Systematic reviews of severe acute maternal morbidity (SAMM), low birth weight (LBW), prematurity, and major congenital malformations (MCM) in Sub-Saharan African countries were also performed. Accounting for the person-time observed during different risk periods yields lower, more conservative estimates of expected maternal and neonatal deaths, particularly at an interim safety evaluation soon after a large number of deliveries. Median incidence of SAMM in 16 reports was 40.7 (IQR: 10.6-73.3) per 1,000 total births, and the most common causes were hemorrhage (34%), dystocia (22%), and severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (22%). Proportions of liveborn infants who were LBW (median 13.3%, IQR: 9.9-16.4) or premature (median 15.4%, IQR: 10.6-19.1) were similar across geographic region, study design, and institutional setting. The median incidence of MCM per 1,000 live births was 14.4 (IQR: 5.5-17.6), with the musculoskeletal system comprising 30%. Some clinical trials assessing whether maternal immunization can improve pregnancy and young infant outcomes in the developing world have made ethics-based decisions not to use a pure placebo control. Consequently, reliable background rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes are necessary to distinguish between vaccine benefits and safety concerns. Local studies that quantify population-based background rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes will improve safety assessment of interventions during pregnancy.

Is the risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia declining?

PubMed

Langa, Kenneth M

2015-01-01

The number of older adults with dementia will increase around the world in the decades ahead as populations age. Current estimates suggest that about 4.2 million adults in the US have dementia and that the attributable economic cost of their care is about $200 billion per year. The worldwide dementia prevalence is estimated at 44.3 million people and the total cost at $604 billion per year. It is expected that the worldwide prevalence will triple to 135.5 million by 2050. However, a number of recent population-based studies from countries around the world suggest that the age-specific risk of dementia may be declining, which could help moderate the expected increase in dementia cases that will accompany the growing number of older adults. At least nine recent population-based studies of dementia incidence or prevalence have shown a declining age-specific risk in the US, England, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. A number of factors, especially rising levels of education and more aggressive treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, may be leading to improving 'brain health' and declining age-specific risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia in countries around the world. Multiple epidemiological studies from around the world suggest an optimistic trend of declining population dementia risk in high-income countries over the past 25 years. Rising levels of education and more widespread and successful treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors may be the driving factors accounting for this decline in dementia risk. Whether this optimistic trend will continue in the face of rising worldwide levels of obesity and diabetes and whether this trend is also occurring in low- and middle-income countries are key unanswered questions which will have enormous implications for the extent of the future worldwide impact of Alzheimer's disease and dementia on patients, families, and societies in the decades ahead.

Alpine glacial relict species losing out to climate change: The case of the fragmented mountain hare population (Lepus timidus) in the Alps.

PubMed

Rehnus, Maik; Bollmann, Kurt; Schmatz, Dirk R; Hackländer, Klaus; Braunisch, Veronika

2018-03-13

Alpine and Arctic species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which is expected to cause habitat loss, fragmentation and-ultimately-extinction of cold-adapted species. However, the impact of climate change on glacial relict populations is not well understood, and specific recommendations for adaptive conservation management are lacking. We focused on the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) as a model species and modelled species distribution in combination with patch and landscape-based connectivity metrics. They were derived from graph-theory models to quantify changes in species distribution and to estimate the current and future importance of habitat patches for overall population connectivity. Models were calibrated based on 1,046 locations of species presence distributed across three biogeographic regions in the Swiss Alps and extrapolated according to two IPCC scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 & 8.5), each represented by three downscaled global climate models. The models predicted an average habitat loss of 35% (22%-55%) by 2100, mainly due to an increase in temperature during the reproductive season. An increase in habitat fragmentation was reflected in a 43% decrease in patch size, a 17% increase in the number of habitat patches and a 34% increase in inter-patch distance. However, the predicted changes in habitat availability and connectivity varied considerably between biogeographic regions: Whereas the greatest habitat losses with an increase in inter-patch distance were predicted at the southern and northern edges of the species' Alpine distribution, the greatest increase in patch number and decrease in patch size is expected in the central Swiss Alps. Finally, both the number of isolated habitat patches and the number of patches crucial for maintaining the habitat network increased under the different variants of climate change. Focusing conservation action on the central Swiss Alps may help mitigate the predicted effects of climate change on population connectivity. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Joint search and sensor management for geosynchronous satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatezalo, A.; El-Fallah, A.; Mahler, R.; Mehra, R. K.; Pham, K.

2008-04-01

Joint search and sensor management for space situational awareness presents daunting scientific and practical challenges as it requires a simultaneous search for new, and the catalog update of the current space objects. We demonstrate a new approach to joint search and sensor management by utilizing the Posterior Expected Number of Targets (PENT) as the objective function, an observation model for a space-based EO/IR sensor, and a Probability Hypothesis Density Particle Filter (PHD-PF) tracker. Simulation and results using actual Geosynchronous Satellites are presented.

MORS Workshop on Capabilities-Based Planning II: Identifying, Classifying and Measuring Risk in a Post 9-11 World, held in McLean, Virginia on 4-6 April 2006

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-22

change resulting from a QDR is not a prima facie case for or against success. It is understandable that Congress expected major change given the...Allen, FS and Jim Bexfield, FS Corrina Ross -Witkowski, Editor/Publisher 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS...11 World Workshop. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFCATION: UNCLASSIFIED 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Corrina Ross

Final Environmental Assessment and Finding of No Significant Impact (EA/FONSI) for 2012-14 Capital Improvements Program (CIP) at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Tucson, Arizona

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

3553 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) US Air Force, Davis-Monthan AFB 355 CES/CEAO...would be insignificant. Operational impacts, including the use of groundwater for water supply, would be similar to current conditions. Biological...expected in the vicinity of the hush house. Land Use and Visual Resources. Construction and demolition activities would create temporary land use

Do Executives' Backgrounds Matter to IPO Investors? Evidence from the Life Science Industry

PubMed Central

Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

2013-01-01

In this study, we focus on the impact of senior executives' industry backgrounds on the amount of capital raised in the stock market. The primary contribution of the study entails applying the upper echelon theory to the initial public offering (IPO) phenomenon. Specifically, we hypothesize that the industry backgrounds of corporate executives affect the amount of capital that the firm raised in the primary stock market. We argue that the firm's future investment strategies are unobserved by the investors ex-ante and investors expect firms' investment strategies to be based on the executives' industry backgrounds. As a result, the executives' industry backgrounds influence the investors' expectations about what investment strategies the firm is likely to deploy. Furthermore, the above logic also suggests that executives of different industry backgrounds should prefer different investment strategies corresponding with demand for different amount of capital. As a result, we expect the industry backgrounds to covary with the capital raised from both the supply and demand perspectives. To test the hypotheses, we ran a reduced econometric model wherein the executives' background predicts the amount of capital raised. Regression analyses suggest that the capital raised is negatively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in the healthcare and genomic sectors but positively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in regulatory affairs. The results provide tentative support for the notion that investors infer corporate strategies from senior executives' industry backgrounds. PMID:23690920

Do executives' backgrounds matter to IPO investors? Evidence from the life science industry.

PubMed

Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

2013-01-01

In this study, we focus on the impact of senior executives' industry backgrounds on the amount of capital raised in the stock market. The primary contribution of the study entails applying the upper echelon theory to the initial public offering (IPO) phenomenon. Specifically, we hypothesize that the industry backgrounds of corporate executives affect the amount of capital that the firm raised in the primary stock market. We argue that the firm's future investment strategies are unobserved by the investors ex-ante and investors expect firms' investment strategies to be based on the executives' industry backgrounds. As a result, the executives' industry backgrounds influence the investors' expectations about what investment strategies the firm is likely to deploy. Furthermore, the above logic also suggests that executives of different industry backgrounds should prefer different investment strategies corresponding with demand for different amount of capital. As a result, we expect the industry backgrounds to covary with the capital raised from both the supply and demand perspectives. To test the hypotheses, we ran a reduced econometric model wherein the executives' background predicts the amount of capital raised. Regression analyses suggest that the capital raised is negatively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in the healthcare and genomic sectors but positively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in regulatory affairs. The results provide tentative support for the notion that investors infer corporate strategies from senior executives' industry backgrounds.

A quadratic regression modelling on paddy production in the area of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goh, Aizat Hanis Annas; Ali, Zalila; Nor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

2017-08-01

Polynomial regression models are useful in situations in which the relationship between a response variable and predictor variables is curvilinear. Polynomial regression fits the nonlinear relationship into a least squares linear regression model by decomposing the predictor variables into a kth order polynomial. The polynomial order determines the number of inflexions on the curvilinear fitted line. A second order polynomial forms a quadratic expression (parabolic curve) with either a single maximum or minimum, a third order polynomial forms a cubic expression with both a relative maximum and a minimum. This study used paddy data in the area of Perlis to model paddy production based on paddy cultivation characteristics and environmental characteristics. The results indicated that a quadratic regression model best fits the data and paddy production is affected by urea fertilizer application and the interaction between amount of average rainfall and percentage of area defected by pest and disease. Urea fertilizer application has a quadratic effect in the model which indicated that if the number of days of urea fertilizer application increased, paddy production is expected to decrease until it achieved a minimum value and paddy production is expected to increase at higher number of days of urea application. The decrease in paddy production with an increased in rainfall is greater, the higher the percentage of area defected by pest and disease.

Expected Improvements in the Quantitative Remote Sensing of Optically Complex Waters with the Use of an Optically Fast Hyperspectral Spectrometer—A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Moses, Wesley J.; Bowles, Jeffrey H.; Corson, Michael R.

2015-01-01

Using simulated data, we investigated the effect of noise in a spaceborne hyperspectral sensor on the accuracy of the atmospheric correction of at-sensor radiances and the consequent uncertainties in retrieved water quality parameters. Specifically, we investigated the improvement expected as the F-number of the sensor is changed from 3.5, which is the smallest among existing operational spaceborne hyperspectral sensors, to 1.0, which is foreseeable in the near future. With the change in F-number, the uncertainties in the atmospherically corrected reflectance decreased by more than 90% across the visible-near-infrared spectrum, the number of pixels with negative reflectance (caused by over-correction) decreased to almost one-third, and the uncertainties in the retrieved water quality parameters decreased by more than 50% and up to 92%. The analysis was based on the sensor model of the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) but using a 30-m spatial resolution instead of HICO’s 96 m. Atmospheric correction was performed using Tafkaa. Water quality parameters were retrieved using a numerical method and a semi-analytical algorithm. The results emphasize the effect of sensor noise on water quality parameter retrieval and the need for sensors with high Signal-to-Noise Ratio for quantitative remote sensing of optically complex waters. PMID:25781507

Let them fall where they may: congruence analysis in massive phylogenetically messy data sets.

PubMed

Leigh, Jessica W; Schliep, Klaus; Lopez, Philippe; Bapteste, Eric

2011-10-01

Interest in congruence in phylogenetic data has largely focused on issues affecting multicellular organisms, and animals in particular, in which the level of incongruence is expected to be relatively low. In addition, assessment methods developed in the past have been designed for reasonably small numbers of loci and scale poorly for larger data sets. However, there are currently over a thousand complete genome sequences available and of interest to evolutionary biologists, and these sequences are predominantly from microbial organisms, whose molecular evolution is much less frequently tree-like than that of multicellular life forms. As such, the level of incongruence in these data is expected to be high. We present a congruence method that accommodates both very large numbers of genes and high degrees of incongruence. Our method uses clustering algorithms to identify subsets of genes based on similarity of phylogenetic signal. It involves only a single phylogenetic analysis per gene, and therefore, computation time scales nearly linearly with the number of genes in the data set. We show that our method performs very well with sets of sequence alignments simulated under a wide variety of conditions. In addition, we present an analysis of core genes of prokaryotes, often assumed to have been largely vertically inherited, in which we identify two highly incongruent classes of genes. This result is consistent with the complexity hypothesis.

Inference from clustering with application to gene-expression microarrays.

PubMed

Dougherty, Edward R; Barrera, Junior; Brun, Marcel; Kim, Seungchan; Cesar, Roberto M; Chen, Yidong; Bittner, Michael; Trent, Jeffrey M

2002-01-01

There are many algorithms to cluster sample data points based on nearness or a similarity measure. Often the implication is that points in different clusters come from different underlying classes, whereas those in the same cluster come from the same class. Stochastically, the underlying classes represent different random processes. The inference is that clusters represent a partition of the sample points according to which process they belong. This paper discusses a model-based clustering toolbox that evaluates cluster accuracy. Each random process is modeled as its mean plus independent noise, sample points are generated, the points are clustered, and the clustering error is the number of points clustered incorrectly according to the generating random processes. Various clustering algorithms are evaluated based on process variance and the key issue of the rate at which algorithmic performance improves with increasing numbers of experimental replications. The model means can be selected by hand to test the separability of expected types of biological expression patterns. Alternatively, the model can be seeded by real data to test the expected precision of that output or the extent of improvement in precision that replication could provide. In the latter case, a clustering algorithm is used to form clusters, and the model is seeded with the means and variances of these clusters. Other algorithms are then tested relative to the seeding algorithm. Results are averaged over various seeds. Output includes error tables and graphs, confusion matrices, principal-component plots, and validation measures. Five algorithms are studied in detail: K-means, fuzzy C-means, self-organizing maps, hierarchical Euclidean-distance-based and correlation-based clustering. The toolbox is applied to gene-expression clustering based on cDNA microarrays using real data. Expression profile graphics are generated and error analysis is displayed within the context of these profile graphics. A large amount of generated output is available over the web.

Design and preliminary test results at Mach 5 of an axisymmetric slotted sound shield. [for supersonic wind tunnels (noise reduction in wind tunnel nozzles)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beckwith, I. E.; Spokowski, A. J.; Harvey, W. D.; Stainback, P. C.

1975-01-01

The basic theory and sound attenuation mechanisms, the design procedures, and preliminary experimental results are presented for a small axisymmetric sound shield for supersonic wind tunnels. The shield consists of an array of small diameter rods aligned nearly parallel to the entrance flow with small gaps between the rods for boundary layer suction. Results show that at the lowest test Reynolds number (based on rod diameter) of 52,000 the noise shield reduced the test section noise by about 60 percent ( or 8 db attenuation) but no attenuation was measured for the higher range of test reynolds numbers from 73,000 to 190,000. These results are below expectations based on data reported elsewhere on a flat sound shield model. The smaller attenuation from the present tests is attributed to insufficient suction at the gaps to prevent feedback of vacuum manifold noise into the shielded test flow and to insufficient suction to prevent transition of the rod boundary layers to turbulent flow at the higher Reynolds numbers. Schlieren photographs of the flow are shown.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chitra Sivaraman, PNNL

Cloud droplet number concentration is an important factor in understanding aerosol-cloud interactions. As aerosol concentration increases, it is expected that droplet number concentration (Nd) will increase and droplet size will decrease, for a given liquid water path. This will greatly affect cloud albedo as smaller droplets reflect more shortwave radiation; however, the magnitude and variability of these processes under different environmental conditions is still uncertain.McComiskey et al. (2009) have implemented a method, based onBoers and Mitchell (1994), for calculating Nd from ground-based remote sensing measurements of optical depth and liquid water path. They show that the magnitude of the aerosol-cloudmore » interactions (ACI) varies with a range of factors, including the relative value of the cloud liquid water path (LWP), the aerosol size distribution, and the cloud updraft velocity. Estimates of Nd under a range of cloud types and conditions and at a variety of sites are needed to further quantify the impacts of aerosol cloud interactions. In order to provide data sets for studying aerosol-cloud interactions, the McComiskey et al. (2009) method was implemented as the Droplet Number Concentration (NDROP) value-added product (VAP).« less

[Expectations and patient satisfaction in hospitals: construction and application of an expectation-based experience typology and its use in the management of quality and expectations].

PubMed

Gehrlach, Christoph; Güntert, Bernhard

2015-01-01

Patient satisfaction (PS) surveys are frequently used evaluation methods to show performance from the customer's view. This approach has some fundamental deficits, especially with respect to theory, methodology and usage. Because of the significant theoretical value of the expectation confirmation/disconfirmation concept in the development of PS, an expectation-based experience typology has been developed and tested to check whether this approach could be a theoretical and practical alternative to the survey of PS. Due to the mainly cognitive-rational process of comparison between expectations and expectation fulfilment, it is easier to make changes in this stage of the process than in the subsequent stage of the development of PS that is mainly based on emotional-affective processes. The paper contains a literature review of the common concept of PS and its causal and influencing factors. Based on the theoretical part of this study, an expectation-based experience typology was developed. In the next step, the typology was subjected to exploratory testing, based on two patient surveys. In some parts of the tested typology explorative differences could be found between hospitals. Despite this rather more complex and unusual approach to expectation-based experience typology, this concept offers the chance to change conditions not only retrospectively (based on data), but also in a prospective way in terms of a "management of expectations". Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Space-based sensor management and geostationary satellites tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Fallah, A.; Zatezalo, A.; Mahler, R.; Mehra, R. K.; Donatelli, D.

2007-04-01

Sensor management for space situational awareness presents a daunting theoretical and practical challenge as it requires the use of multiple types of sensors on a variety of platforms to ensure that the space environment is continuously monitored. We demonstrate a new approach utilizing the Posterior Expected Number of Targets (PENT) as the sensor management objective function, an observation model for a space-based EO/IR sensor platform, and a Probability Hypothesis Density Particle Filter (PHD-PF) tracker. Simulation and results using actual Geostationary Satellites are presented. We also demonstrate enhanced performance by applying the ProgressiveWeighting Correction (PWC) method for regularization in the implementation of the PHD-PF tracker.

Analysis of factors affecting satisfaction level on problem based learning approach using structural equation modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Nur Farahin Mee; Zahid, Zalina

2014-12-01

Nowadays, in the job market demand, graduates are expected not only to have higher performance in academic but they must also be excellent in soft skill. Problem-Based Learning (PBL) has a number of distinct advantages as a learning method as it can deliver graduates that will be highly prized by industry. This study attempts to determine the satisfaction level of engineering students on the PBL Approach and to evaluate their determinant factors. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to investigate how the factors of Good Teaching Scale, Clear Goals, Student Assessment and Levels of Workload affected the student satisfaction towards PBL approach.

Characterization of microsatellite markers for the Restinga Antwren, Formicivora littoralis (Thamnophilidae), an endangered bird endemic to Brazil.

PubMed

Chaves, F G; Vecchi, M B; Webster, M S; Alves, M A S

2015-07-17

Molecular markers are important tools in determining parentage, gene flow, and the genetic structure of species. In the case of rare, endemic, and/or threatened species, these markers can be used to understand key ecological questions and support conservation actions. We developed seven microsatellite markers for the only bird endemic to the Restinga ecosystem. Microsatellite loci were isolated from a library that was based on 10 individuals (six males and four females). Primers were tested in 107 individuals of the same population. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 4 to 19, and the observed and expected heterozygosity varied from 0.15 to 0.84 and from 0.60 to 0.89, respectively. We expect that the polymorphic microsatellite loci we describe will be useful for other studies, particularly in the Tropics.

Has Thailand's fertility decline stalled?

PubMed

Knodel, J; Chayovan, N; Frisen, C

1988-09-01

Thailand is 1 of the third world countries in which a very substantial fertility decline has occurred during the last 2 decades. However, there has been some recent concern, based on fertility rates derived from 3 national contraceptive prevalence surveys conducted in 1978/1979, 1981, and 1984, that the fertility decline may have lost momentum at a level well above replacement fertility. New evidence now available from a more recent national survey which permits calculation of retrospective fertility trends, in combination with those from registration data, clearly contradicts the suggestion of a fall in the fertility decline. Moreover, because expected family size remains low among women currently starting their reproductive careers and evidence shows that the preferred number of children has fallen more or less steadily, low fertility may be expected to be a feature of the Thai population for some time to come.

Methodology for Developing and Evaluating the PROMIS® Smoking Item Banks

PubMed Central

Cai, Li; Stucky, Brian D.; Tucker, Joan S.; Shadel, William G.; Edelen, Maria Orlando

2014-01-01

Introduction: This article describes the procedures used in the PROMIS® Smoking Initiative for the development and evaluation of item banks, short forms (SFs), and computerized adaptive tests (CATs) for the assessment of 6 constructs related to cigarette smoking: nicotine dependence, coping expectancies, emotional and sensory expectancies, health expectancies, psychosocial expectancies, and social motivations for smoking. Methods: Analyses were conducted using response data from a large national sample of smokers. Items related to each construct were subjected to extensive item factor analyses and evaluation of differential item functioning (DIF). Final item banks were calibrated, and SF assessments were developed for each construct. The performance of the SFs and the potential use of the item banks for CAT administration were examined through simulation study. Results: Item selection based on dimensionality assessment and DIF analyses produced item banks that were essentially unidimensional in structure and free of bias. Simulation studies demonstrated that the constructs could be accurately measured with a relatively small number of carefully selected items, either through fixed SFs or CAT-based assessment. Illustrative results are presented, and subsequent articles provide detailed discussion of each item bank in turn. Conclusions: The development of the PROMIS smoking item banks provides researchers with new tools for measuring smoking-related constructs. The use of the calibrated item banks and suggested SF assessments will enhance the quality of score estimates, thus advancing smoking research. Moreover, the methods used in the current study, including innovative approaches to item selection and SF construction, may have general relevance to item bank development and evaluation. PMID:23943843

Climate Change in Nicaragua: a dynamical downscaling of precipitation and temperature.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porras, Ignasi; Domingo-Dalmau, Anna; Sole, Josep Maria; Arasa, Raul; Picanyol, Miquel; Ángeles Gonzalez-Serrano, M.°; Masdeu, Marta

2016-04-01

Climate Change affects weather patterns and modifies meteorological extreme events like tropical cyclones, heavy rainfalls, dry events, extreme temperatures, etc. The aim of this study is to show the Climate Change projections over Nicaragua for the period 2010-2040 focused on precipitation and temperature. In order to obtain the climate change signal, the results obtained by modelling a past period (1980-2009) were compared with the ones obtained by modelling a future period (2010-2040). The modelling method was based on a dynamical downscaling, coupling global and regional models. The MPI-ESM-MR global climate model was selected due to the better performance over Nicaragua. Moreover, a detailed sensitivity analysis for different parameterizations and schemes of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model was made to minimize the model uncertainty. To evaluate and validate the methodology, a comparison between model outputs and satellite measurements data was realized. The results show an expected increment of the temperature and an increment of the number of days per year with temperatures higher than 35°C. Monthly precipitation patterns will change although annual total precipitation will be similar. In addition, number of dry days are expected to increase.

Genetic analysis of Mexican Criollo cattle populations.

PubMed

Ulloa-Arvizu, R; Gayosso-Vázquez, A; Ramos-Kuri, M; Estrada, F J; Montaño, M; Alonso, R A

2008-10-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the genetic structure of Mexican Criollo cattle populations using microsatellite genetic markers. DNA samples were collected from 168 animals from four Mexican Criollo cattle populations, geographically isolated in remote areas of Sierra Madre Occidental (West Highlands). Also were included samples from two breeds with Iberian origin: the fighting bull (n = 24) and the milking central American Criollo (n = 24) and one Asiatic breed: Guzerat (n = 32). Genetic analysis consisted of the estimation of the genetic diversity in each population by the allele number and the average expected heterozygosity found in nine microsatellite loci. Furthermore, genetic relationships among the populations were defined by their genetic distances. Our data shows that Mexican cattle populations have a relatively high level of genetic diversity based either on the mean number of alleles (10.2-13.6) and on the expected heterozygosity (0.71-0.85). The degree of observed homozygosity within the Criollo populations was remarkable and probably caused by inbreeding (reduced effective population size) possibly due to reproductive structure within populations. Our data shows that considerable genetic differentiation has been occurred among the Criollo cattle populations in different regions of Mexico.

Using ant-behavior-based simulation model AntWeb to improve website organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weigang; Pinheiro Dib, Marcos V.; Teles, Wesley M.; Morais de Andrade, Vlaudemir; Alves de Melo, Alba C. M.; Cariolano, Judas T.

2002-03-01

Some web usage mining algorithms showed the potential application to find the difference among the organizations expected by visitors to the website. However, there are still no efficient method and criterion for a web administrator to measure the performance of the modification. In this paper, we developed an AntWeb, a model inspired by ants' behavior to simulate the sequence of visiting the website, in order to measure the efficient of the web structure. We implemented a web usage mining algorithm using backtrack to the intranet website of the Politec Informatic Ltd., Brazil. We defined throughput (the number of visitors to reach their target pages per time unit relates to the total number of visitors) as an index to measure the website's performance. We also used the link in a web page to represent the effect of visitors' pheromone trails. For every modification in the website organization, for example, putting a link from the expected location to the target object, the simulation reported the value of throughput as a quick answer about this modification. The experiment showed the stability of our simulation model, and a positive modification to the intranet website of the Politec.

Using monolingual neuropsychological test norms with bilingual Hispanic americans: application of an individual comparison standard.

PubMed

Gasquoine, Philip Gerard; Gonzalez, Cassandra Dayanira

2012-05-01

Conventional neuropsychological norms developed for monolinguals likely overestimate normal performance in bilinguals on language but not visual-perceptual format tests. This was studied by comparing neuropsychological false-positive rates using the 50th percentile of conventional norms and individual comparison standards (Picture Vocabulary or Matrix Reasoning scores) as estimates of preexisting neuropsychological skill level against the number expected from the normal distribution for a consecutive sample of 56 neurologically intact, bilingual, Hispanic Americans. Participants were tested in separate sessions in Spanish and English in the counterbalanced order on La Bateria Neuropsicologica and the original English language tests on which this battery was based. For language format measures, repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance showed that individual estimates of preexisting skill level in English generated the mean number of false positives most approximate to that expected from the normal distribution, whereas the 50th percentile of conventional English language norms did the same for visual-perceptual format measures. When using conventional Spanish or English monolingual norms for language format neuropsychological measures with bilingual Hispanic Americans, individual estimates of preexisting skill level are recommended over the 50th percentile.

Improving catalase-based propelled motor endurance by enzyme encapsulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmchen, Juliane; Baeza, Alejandro; Ruiz-Molina, Daniel; Vallet-Regí, Maria

2014-07-01

Biocatalytic propulsion is expected to play an important role in the future of micromotors as it might drastically increase the number of available fuelling reactions. However, most of the enzyme-propelled micromotors so far reported still rely on the degradation of peroxide by catalase, in spite of being vulnerable to relatively high peroxide concentrations. To overcome this limitation, herein we present a strategy to encapsulate the catalase and to graft the resulting enzyme capsules on motor particles. Significant improvement of the stability in the presence of peroxide and other aggressive agents has been observed.Biocatalytic propulsion is expected to play an important role in the future of micromotors as it might drastically increase the number of available fuelling reactions. However, most of the enzyme-propelled micromotors so far reported still rely on the degradation of peroxide by catalase, in spite of being vulnerable to relatively high peroxide concentrations. To overcome this limitation, herein we present a strategy to encapsulate the catalase and to graft the resulting enzyme capsules on motor particles. Significant improvement of the stability in the presence of peroxide and other aggressive agents has been observed. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c4nr02459a

Knee point search using cascading top-k sorting with minimized time complexity.

PubMed

Wang, Zheng; Tseng, Shian-Shyong

2013-01-01

Anomaly detection systems and many other applications are frequently confronted with the problem of finding the largest knee point in the sorted curve for a set of unsorted points. This paper proposes an efficient knee point search algorithm with minimized time complexity using the cascading top-k sorting when a priori probability distribution of the knee point is known. First, a top-k sort algorithm is proposed based on a quicksort variation. We divide the knee point search problem into multiple steps. And in each step an optimization problem of the selection number k is solved, where the objective function is defined as the expected time cost. Because the expected time cost in one step is dependent on that of the afterwards steps, we simplify the optimization problem by minimizing the maximum expected time cost. The posterior probability of the largest knee point distribution and the other parameters are updated before solving the optimization problem in each step. An example of source detection of DNS DoS flooding attacks is provided to illustrate the applications of the proposed algorithm.

Registry based trauma outcome: perspective of a developing country.

PubMed

Zafar, H; Rehmani, R; Raja, A J; Ali, A; Ahmed, M

2002-09-01

To report trauma outcome from a developing country based on the Trauma and Injury Severity Scoring (TRISS) method and compare the outcome with the registry data from Major Trauma Outcome Study (MTOS). Registry based audit of all trauma patients over two years. Emergency room of a teaching university hospital. 279 injured patients meeting trauma team activation criteria including all deaths in the emergency room. TRISS methodology to compare expected and observed outcome. W, M, and Z statistics and comparison with MTOS data. 279 patients meeting the trauma triage criteria presented to the emergency room, 235 (84.2%) were men and 44 (15.8%) women. Blunt injury accounted for 204 (73.1%) and penetrating for 75 (26.9%) patients. Seventy two patients had injury severity score of more than 15. Only 18 (6.4%) patients were transported in an ambulance. A total of 142 (50.9%) patients were transferred from other hospitals with a mean prehospital delay of 7.1 hours. M statistic of our study subset was 0.97, indicating a good match between our patients and MTOS cohort. There were 18 deaths with only one unexpected survivor. The expected number of deaths based on MTOS dataset should have been 12. Present injury severity instruments using MTOS coefficients do not accurately correlate with observed survival rates in a developing country.

A gender analysis of secondary school physics textbooks and laboratory manuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostas, Nancy Ann

Secondary school physics textbooks and laboratory manuals were evaluated for gender balance. The textbooks and manuals evaluated were all current editions available at the time of the study with copyrights of 1988 to 1992. Illustrations, drawings and photographs were judged gender balanced based on the number of men and women, boys and girls shown in both active and passive roles. Illustrations, drawings and photographs were also evaluated by the number of male and female scientists identified by name. The curricular content of the textbooks was analyzed for gender balance by three criteria: the number of named male and female scientists whose accomplishments were described in the text; the number of careers assigned to men and women; and the number of verbal analogies assigned to girls interests, boys interests or neutral interests. The laboratory activities in the manuals were categorized as demonstrations, experiments and observations. Three of each of these types of activities from each manual were analyzed for skills and motivating factors important to girls as identified by Potter and Rosser (1992). Data were analyzed by use of descriptive statistics of frequencies, means and chi-square goodness of fit. The.05 level of significance was applied to all analyses based upon an expected frequency of 50 - 50 percentage of men and women and a 4.5 percent for women scientists to 95.5 percent for men scientists. The findings were as follows. None of the textbooks had a balance of men/women, boys/girls in the illustrations, drawings and photographs. The Hewitt (Scott-Foresman, 1989) textbook was the only textbook with no significant difference. Using the expected frequency for male and female scientists, two textbooks were gender balanced for illustrations, drawings and photographs while all textbooks were gender balanced for described accomplishments of scientists. The Hewitt (Scott Foresman, 1989) textbook had the only gender balanced representation of careers. Verbal analogies were gender fair in all textbooks where the second half of the content dealing with light, electricity and magnetism was analyzed. Only the Hewitt (Addison-Wesley, 1992) was gender balanced for the first half text verbal analogies. All laboratory manuals had skills and motivating factors important to girls.

Adolescents with Cancer in Italy: Improving Access to National Cooperative Pediatric Oncology Group (AIEOP) Centers.

PubMed

Ferrari, Andrea; Rondelli, Roberto; Pession, Andrea; Mascarin, Maurizio; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Mosso, Maria Luisa; Maule, Milena; Barisone, Elena; Bertolotti, Marina; Clerici, Carlo Alfredo; Jankovic, Momcilo; Fagioli, Franca; Biondi, Andrea

2016-06-01

This analysis compared the numbers of patients treated at Italian pediatric oncology group (Associazione Italiana Ematologia Oncologia Pediatrica [AIEOP]) centers with the numbers of cases predicted according to the population-based registry. It considered 32,431 patients registered in the AIEOP database (1989-2012). The ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) cases was 0.79 for children (0-14 years old) and 0.15 for adolescents (15-19 years old). The proportion of adolescents increased significantly over the years, however, from 0.05 in the earliest period to 0.10, 0.18, and then 0.28 in the latest period of observation, suggesting a greater efficacy of local/national programs dedicated to adolescents. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Diagrammatic representation of scalar QCD and sign problem at nonzero chemical potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruckmann, Falk; Wellnhofer, Jacob

2018-01-01

We consider QCD at strong coupling with scalar quarks coupled to a chemical potential. Performing the link integrals we present a diagrammatic representation of the path integral weight. It is based on mesonic and baryonic building blocks, in close analogy to fermionic QCD. Likewise, the baryon loops are subject to a manifest conservation of the baryon number. The sign problem is expected to disappear in this representation and we do confirm this for three flavors, where a scalar baryon can be built and, thus, a dependence on the chemical potential occurs. For higher flavor number, we analyze examples for a potential sign problem in the baryon sector and conjecture that all weights are positive upon exploring the current conservation of each flavor.

Efficiency of porcine somatic cell nuclear transfer – a retrospective study of factors related to embryo recipient and embryos transferred

PubMed Central

Huang, Yongye; Ouyang, Hongsheng; Yu, Hao; Lai, Liangxue; Pang, Daxin; Li, Zhanjun

2013-01-01

Summary The successful generation of pigs via somatic cell nuclear transfer depends on reducing risk factors in several aspects. To provide an overview of some influencing factors related to embryo transfer, the follow-up data related to cloned pig production collected in our laboratory was examined. (i) Spring showed a higher full-term pregnancy rate compared with winter (33.6% vs 18.6%, P = 0.006). Furthermore, a regression equation can be drawn between full-term pregnancy numbers and pregnancy numbers in different months (y = 0.692x−3.326). (ii) There were no significant differences detected in the number of transferred embryos between surrogate sows exhibiting full-term development compared to those that did not. (iii) Non-ovulating surrogate sows presented a higher percentage of full-term pregnancies compared with ovulating sows (32.0% vs 17.5%, P = 0.004; respectively). (iv) Abortion was most likely to take place between Day 27 to Day 34. (v) Based on Life Table Survival Analysis, delivery in normally fertilized and surrogate sows is expected to be completed before Day 117 or Day 125, respectively. Additionally, the length of pregnancy in surrogate sows was negatively correlated with the average litter size, which was not found for normally fertilized sows. In conclusion, performing embryo transfer in appropriate seasons, improving the quality of embryos transferred, optimizing the timing of embryo transfer, limiting the occurrence of abortion, combined with ameliorating the management of delivery, is expected to result in the harvest of a great number of surviving cloned piglets. PMID:24244859

Transition into and out of daylight saving time and spontaneous delivery: a population-based study

PubMed Central

László, Krisztina D; Cnattingius, Sven; Janszky, Imre

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate whether the circadian rhythm disruption following the transition into and out of daylight saving time (DST) is associated with an increased risk of spontaneous delivery. Design We compared the number of spontaneous deliveries in the Swedish Medical Birth Register during the week after the change to and the week after the change from DST (exposure periods) with the average number of spontaneous deliveries in the control period, defined as the week before and the week after each exposure period. Setting Sweden, 1993–2006. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcomes were the weekly and the daily number of spontaneous deliveries in the exposure and the control periods. In secondary analyses we also compared the mean length of pregnancy of the women with spontaneous deliveries in the exposure and control periods. Results The number of deliveries during the week after the transition into or out of DST was similar to that in the comparison period (18 519 observed vs 18 434 expected in case of the spring shift and 19 073 observed vs 19 122 expected in case of the autumn shift); the corresponding incidence ratio and 95% CIs were 1.005 (0.990 to 1.019) and 0.997 (0.983 to 1.012), respectively. There were no differences in the length of gestation of the deliveries in the exposure and the control periods. Conclusions Our results do not support the hypothesis that a minor circadian rhythm disruption is associated with an increased short-term risk of spontaneous delivery. PMID:27630067

All-cause and cause-specific mortality among Black and White North Carolina state prisoners, 1995-2005

PubMed Central

Wohl, David A.; Schoenbach, Victor J.

2011-01-01

Purpose We compared mortality rates among state prisoners and other state residents to identify prisoners’ healthcare needs Methods We linked North Carolina prison records with state death records for 1995-2005 to estimate all-cause and cause-specific death rates among Black and White male prisoners aged 20-79 years, and used standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare these observed deaths with the expected number based on death rates among state residents Results The all-cause SMR of Black prisoners was 0.52 (95%CI: 0.48 0.57), with fewer deaths than expected from accidents, homicides, cardiovascular disease and cancer. The all-cause SMR of White prisoners was 1.12 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.25) with fewer deaths than expected for accidents, but more deaths than expected from viral hepatitis, liver disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory disease, and HIV. Conclusions Mortality of Black prisoners was lower than that of Black state residents for both traumatic and chronic causes of death. Mortality of White prisoners was lower than that of White state residents for accidents, but higher for several chronic causes of death. Future studies should investigate the effect of prisoners’ pre-incarceration and in-prison morbidity, the prison environment, and prison healthcare on prisoners’ patterns of mortality. PMID:21737304

Dynamic sensor management of dispersed and disparate sensors for tracking resident space objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Fallah, A.; Zatezalo, A.; Mahler, R.; Mehra, R. K.; Donatelli, D.

2008-04-01

Dynamic sensor management of dispersed and disparate sensors for space situational awareness presents daunting scientific and practical challenges as it requires optimal and accurate maintenance of all Resident Space Objects (RSOs) of interest. We demonstrate an approach to the space-based sensor management problem by extending a previously developed and tested sensor management objective function, the Posterior Expected Number of Targets (PENT), to disparate and dispersed sensors. This PENT extension together with observation models for various sensor platforms, and a Probability Hypothesis Density Particle Filter (PHD-PF) tracker provide a powerful tool for tackling this challenging problem. We demonstrate the approach using simulations for tracking RSOs by a Space Based Visible (SBV) sensor and ground based radars.

Prestige versus citation volume as journal indices in cognitive neuroscience.

PubMed

Ward, Jamie

2014-01-01

In recent years, alternative measures of a journal's influence have been developed to those based on citation metrics (such as Impact Factor). This includes the Scimago Journal Rank (SJR) which is adapted from algorithms used to prioritize webpages in search engines. It is considered a measure of "prestige" insofar as it takes into account the importance of links/citations and not just their total number. Taking a sample of 38 journals from within the field of cognitive neuroscience, it is shown that SJR and Impact Factor correlate highly (r = .83) but with a few large discrepancies in rankings. This journal, Cognitive Neuroscience, fares better on the prestige-based measure than might otherwise be expected from its citation-based rank.

The Role of Expectations in Game-Based Training.

PubMed

Kreutzer, Christine; Bowers, Clint

2015-01-01

The present work seeks to examine the importance of expectancies in computer-mediated treatment and training programs. Two studies examining the role of patient and trainee expectations are presented. Study 1 investigated how expectations of a training game for military surgical teams influence training performance outcomes. The findings have implications for the administration of game-based treatment and training systems. Study 2 explored how pre-treatment expectancies influence post-treatment reactions to a game-based intervention for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Results indicate that self-efficacy plays a mediating role in the relationship between expectancies and reactions. Together, these studies offer implications regarding the critical role of attitudes towards game-based training and treatment mechanisms.

Application of a hurdle negative binomial count data model to demand for bass fishing in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Florkowski, Wojciech J

2007-06-01

This paper identifies factors that influence the demand for a bass fishing trip taken in the southeastern United States using a hurdle negative binomial count data model. The probability of fishing for a bass is estimated in the first stage and the fishing trip frequency is estimated in the second stage for individuals reporting bass fishing trips in the Southeast. The applied approach allows the decomposition of the effects of factors responsible for the decision to take a trip and the trip number. Calculated partial and total elasticities indicate a highly inelastic demand for the number of fishing trips as trip costs increase. However, the demand can be expected to increase if anglers experience a success measured by the number of caught fish or their size. Benefit estimates based on alternative estimation methods differ substantially, suggesting the need for testing each modeling approach applied in empirical studies.

Revealing of photon-number splitting attack on quantum key distribution system by photon-number resolving devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaidash, A. A.; Egorov, V. I.; Gleim, A. V.

2016-08-01

Quantum cryptography allows distributing secure keys between two users so that any performed eavesdropping attempt would be immediately discovered. However, in practice an eavesdropper can obtain key information from multi-photon states when attenuated laser radiation is used as a source of quantum states. In order to prevent actions of an eavesdropper, it is generally suggested to implement special cryptographic protocols, like decoy states or SARG04. In this paper, we describe an alternative method based on monitoring photon number statistics after detection. We provide a useful rule of thumb to estimate approximate order of difference of expected distribution and distribution in case of attack. Formula for calculating a minimum value of total pulses or time-gaps to resolve attack is shown. Also formulas for actual fraction of raw key known to Eve were derived. This method can therefore be used with any system and even combining with mentioned special protocols.

Effect of the Lorentz force on on-off dynamo intermittency.

PubMed

Alexakis, Alexandros; Ponty, Yannick

2008-05-01

An investigation of the dynamo instability close to the threshold produced by an ABC forced flow is presented. We focus on the on-off intermittency behavior of the dynamo and the countereffect of the Lorentz force in the nonlinear stage of the dynamo. The Lorentz force drastically alters the statistics of the turbulent fluctuations of the flow and reduces their amplitude. As a result, much longer bursts (on phases) are observed than is expected based on the amplitude of the fluctuations in the kinematic regime of the dynamo. For large Reynolds numbers, the duration time of the on phase follows a power law distribution, while for smaller Reynolds numbers the Lorentz force completely kills the noise and the system transits from a chaotic state into a laminar time periodic flow. The behavior of the on-off intermittency as the Reynolds number is increased is also examined. The connections with dynamo experiments and theoretical modeling are discussed.

The stagnation of the Mexican male life expectancy in the first decade of the 21st century: the impact of homicides and diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; García-Guerrero, Víctor Manuel; Echarri-Cánovas, Carlos Javier

2015-01-01

In the first decade of the 21st century, the Mexican life expectancy changed from a long trend of increase to stagnation. These changes concur with an increase in deaths by homicides that the country experienced in that decade, and an obesity epidemic that had developed over the last decades of the 20th century. We quantify the impact of causes of death on life expectancy from 2000 to 2010. Two approaches to analyse causes of death are used: the number of life years lost due to each of the causes of death in a given year, and cause-decomposition techniques for comparisons of life expectancy from 2000 to 2010. The apparent stagnation in life expectancy is the result of an increase in deaths by homicides and diabetes mellitus on the one hand, and the positive improvements observed in other causes of death on the other. The negative impact of homicides is particularly observed for ages 15 and 50, and for that of diabetes mellitus at ages above 45 years. There is little basis for optimism regarding the future scenarios of the health of the Mexican population based on the first decade of the 21st century. Male life expectancy would have increased by 2 years if deaths by homicides and diabetes mellitus had been avoided. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Cluster Size Optimization in Sensor Networks with Decentralized Cluster-Based Protocols

PubMed Central

Amini, Navid; Vahdatpour, Alireza; Xu, Wenyao; Gerla, Mario; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

2011-01-01

Network lifetime and energy-efficiency are viewed as the dominating considerations in designing cluster-based communication protocols for wireless sensor networks. This paper analytically provides the optimal cluster size that minimizes the total energy expenditure in such networks, where all sensors communicate data through their elected cluster heads to the base station in a decentralized fashion. LEACH, LEACH-Coverage, and DBS comprise three cluster-based protocols investigated in this paper that do not require any centralized support from a certain node. The analytical outcomes are given in the form of closed-form expressions for various widely-used network configurations. Extensive simulations on different networks are used to confirm the expectations based on the analytical results. To obtain a thorough understanding of the results, cluster number variability problem is identified and inspected from the energy consumption point of view. PMID:22267882

Italian cancer figures, report 2013: Multiple tumours.

PubMed

2013-01-01

This collaborative study, based on data collected by the network of Italian association of cancer registries (AIRTUM), provides updated estimates on the incidence risk of multiple primary cancer (MP). The objective is to highlight and quantify the bidirectional associations between different oncological diseases. The quantification of the excess or decreased risk of further cancers in cancer patients, in comparison with the general population, may contribute to understand the aetiology of cancer and to address clinical follow-up. Data herein presented were provided by AIRTUM population-based cancer registries, which cover nowadays 48% of the Italian population. This monograph utilizes the AIRTUM database (December 2012), considering all malignant cancer cases diagnosed between 1976 and 2010. All cases are coded according to ICD-O-3. Non-melanoma skin cancer cases, cases based on death certificate only, cases based on autopsy only, and cases with follow-up time equal to zero were excluded. To define multiple primaries, IARC-IACR rules were adopted (http://www.iacr.com.fr/MPrules_july2004.pdf). Data were subjected to standard quality control procedures (described in the AIRTUM data management protocol) and specific quality control checks defined for the present study. A cohort of cancer patients was followed over time from first cancer diagnosis until the date of second cancer diagnosis, death, or the end of follow-up, to evaluate whether the number of observed second cancer cases was greater than expected. Person years at risk (PY) were computed by first cancer site, geographic area (North, Centre, South and Islands), attained age, and attained calendar-year group. All second cancers diagnosed in the cohort's patients were included in the observed numbers of cases. The expected number of cancer cases was computed multiplying the accumulated PY by the expected rates, calculated from the AIRTUM database stratified by cancer site, geographic area, age, and calendar-year group. The Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) was calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancer cases. The Excess Absolute Risk (EAR) beyond the expected amount were calculated subtracting the expected number of subsequent cancers from the observed number of cancer cases; the difference was then divided by the PY and the number of cancer cases in excess (or deficit) was expressed per 1,000 PY. Confidence intervals were stated at 95%. The two months (60 days) after first cancer diagnosis were defined as "synchronicity period", and in the main analysis observed and expected cases during this period were excluded. It was estimated the excess risk in the period after first diagnosis (≥ 0 months), excluding the synchronicity period (≥ 2 months), and during the following periods: 2-11, 12-59, 60-119 and 120 months after diagnosis. First-cancer-site-and-gender-specific sheets are presented, reporting both SIRs and EARs. For 5,979,338 person-years a cohort of 1,635,060 cancer patients (880,361 males and 754,699 females) diagnosed between 1976 and 2010 was followed. The mean follow-up length was 14 years. Overall, 85,399 metachronous (latency ≥2 months) cancers were observed, while 77,813 were expected during the study period: SIR: 1.10 (95%CI 1.09-1.10), EAR: 1.32 x 1,000 person-years (95%CI 1.19 - 1.46). The SIR was 1.08 (95%CI 1.08-1.09) for men (54,518 observed and 50,260 expected) and 1.12 (95%CI 1.11-1.13) for women (30,881/27,553), and the EAR 1.61 (95%CI 1.37-1.84) and 1.08 x 1,000 person-years (95%CI 0.93-1.24), respectively.Moreover, during the first two months after first cancer diagnosis (synchronous period) 14,807 cancers were observed while 3,536 were expected (SIR: 4.16; 95%CI 4.09-4.22); the SIR was 4.08 (95%CI 4.00-4.16) for men and 4.32 (95%CI 4.20-4.45) for women.The mean age of patients at first cancer diagnosis was 67.0 years among males and 65.8 among females.The risk of MP was related to age being higher for younger patients and lower for older ones. In relation to the time of first cancer diagnosis, the SIR was very high at the beginning and then decreased, although remaining constantly over 1, and then rose over time. No strong differences were evident across the different incidence periods, which all showed an increased MP risk.Women had higher SIRs than expected for 18 cancer sites, men for 12. The statistically significantly SIRs lower than 1 were 2 and 8, respectively. Increased overall MP risk was observed for patients of both sexes with a first primary in the oral cavity (SIR men: 1.93; SIR women: 1.48), pharynx (SIR men: 2.13; SIR women: 1.99), larynx (SIR men: 1.57; SIR women: 1.79), oesophagus (SIR men: 1.45; SIR women: 1.41), lung (SIR men: 1.09; SIR women: 1.13), kidney (SIR men: 1.14; SIR women: 1.15), urinary bladder (SIR men: 1.29; SIR women: 1.22), thyroid (SIR: 1.22 in both sexes), Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR men: 1.59; SIR women: 1.94), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR men: 1.13; SIR women: 1.12), and for the heterogeneous group "other sites" (SIR men: 1.09; SIR women: 1.07). Moreover, men had a higher MP risk if the first cancer was in the testis (SIR: 1.24), while the same was true for women with gallbladder (SIR: 1.21), skin melanoma (SIR: 1.17), bone (SIR: 1.41), breast (SIR: 1.12), cervix uteri (SIR: 1.23) and corpus uteri (SIR: 1.23), and ovarian cancer (SIR: 1.18). On the contrary, a first liver or pancreas cancer were associated with a decreased MP risk in both sexes (liver SIR: 0.86 and 0.81 for men and women, respectively; pancreas SIR: 0.70 and 0.78 for men and women, respectively), as were those of colon (SIR: 0.93), rectum (SIR: 0.83), gallbladder (SIR: 0.80), prostate (SIR: 0.93), mesothelioma (SIR: 0.65), and central nervous system (SIR: 0.82) among men. Among the cancers for which the EAR is statistically significant, those with higher Excess Absolute Risk of MP were those of the oral cavity (EAR: 16.0 x 1,000 person-years in men and 5.4 in women), pharynx (17.6 and 9.1), larynx (11.4 and 8.8), and oesophagus (8.5 and 4.8). This descriptive study provides quantitative information on the risk of developing a second cancer in an Italian population-based cohort of approximately 1.65 million cancer patients, compared to the risk of the general population. During the follow-up time (on average 14 years) cancer patients had an MP risk that was 10% higher in comparison to the general population and an Excess Absolute Risk of 1.32 x 1,000 person-years. Study of MPs and their risk measures are dependent on methods used in the calculation. The definition of MP is not univocal and using different rules can greatly change the number of cancers in a patient with MPs. However, the AIRTUM cancer registries adopt the same recommendations for MP definition. This monograph was therefore made possible by the shared rules and standards used by AIRTUM registries. The cancer site-specific sheets, which represent the core of the monograph, can be useful to highlight and quantify the bidirectional associations among different diseases and therefore provide indications for clinical follow-up. Lifestyle changes in more healthful directions can have a positive effect in the cancer patient population and should always be recommended.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Folga, Steve; Portante, Edgar; Shamsuddin, Shabbir

2016-10-01

This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured acrossmore » all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.« less

Managing an academic career in science: What gender differences exist and why?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Gayle Patrice

The present study examines the career trajectories of academic scientists during the period from 1993 to 2001 to explore gender differences in mobility. Data from the National Science Foundation's Survey of Doctorate Recipients are used to examine and compare gender differences in the odds of promotion. The effects of age, marital and family status, duration of time to complete doctorate, academic discipline, cumulative number of publications and time in the survey are considered as explanatory variables. Event history analyses are conducted for all scientists, for scientists in four major academic disciplines and for scientists in various academic ranks. While no overall gender differences were observed in the odds of promotion, several important similarities and differences were evident. Expectedly, publications had a significant and positive relationship with advancement for both women and men. The role of parent influenced promotions quite differently for women and men. Contrary to expectations based on prior research, academic women scientists who were mothers advanced at similar rates as women without children. Consistent with expectations based on traditional roles, married men and men with children generally advanced more quickly than single or childless men, respectively. Two surprising patterns emerged among subgroups of women. Marriage was associated with greater odds of advancement for women engineers and motherhood was associated with greater odds of advancement for among assistant professors. Possible explanations for these findings are presented.

The Structure and Determinants of Expected and Actual Starting Salaries of Higher Education Students in Germany: Identical or Different?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frick, Bernd; Maihaus, Michael

2016-01-01

Using two representative samples of some 74,000 students and 11,000 graduates, respectively, we analyse the accuracy of students' wage expectations given their individual characteristics. We find that students are aware of the effects of most of their own characteristics, as a large number of determinants of expected and realised salaries do not…

Thermal performance of Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} in water - ethylene glycol nanofluid mixture as cooling medium in mini channel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zakaria, Irnie Azlin; Mohamed, Wan Ahmad Najmi Wan; Mamat, Aman Mohd Ihsan

Continuous need for an optimum conversion efficiency of a Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) operation has triggered varieties of advancements namely on the thermal management engineering scope. Nanofluids as an innovative heat transfer fluid solution are expected to be a promising candidate for alternative coolant in mini channel cooling plate of PEMFC. In this work, heat transfer performance of low concentration of 0.1, 0.3 and 0.5 % Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} in water: Ethylene glycol (EG) mixtures of 100:0 and 50:50 nanofluids have been studied and compared against its base fluids at Re number ranging from 10 to 100. Amore » steady, laminar and incompressible flow with constant heat flux is assumed in the channel of 140mm × 200mm. It was found that nanofluids have performed better than the base fluid but the demerit is on the pumping power due to the higher pressure drop across mini channel geometry as expected.« less

Optimization of Self-Directed Target Coverage in Wireless Multimedia Sensor Network

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang; Wang, Yufei; Pi, Dechang; Wang, Ruchuan

2014-01-01

Video and image sensors in wireless multimedia sensor networks (WMSNs) have directed view and limited sensing angle. So the methods to solve target coverage problem for traditional sensor networks, which use circle sensing model, are not suitable for WMSNs. Based on the FoV (field of view) sensing model and FoV disk model proposed, how expected multimedia sensor covers the target is defined by the deflection angle between target and the sensor's current orientation and the distance between target and the sensor. Then target coverage optimization algorithms based on expected coverage value are presented for single-sensor single-target, multisensor single-target, and single-sensor multitargets problems distinguishingly. Selecting the orientation that sensor rotated to cover every target falling in the FoV disk of that sensor for candidate orientations and using genetic algorithm to multisensor multitargets problem, which has NP-complete complexity, then result in the approximated minimum subset of sensors which covers all the targets in networks. Simulation results show the algorithm's performance and the effect of number of targets on the resulting subset. PMID:25136667

Increased incidence of malignant melanoma of the skin in workers in a telecommunications industry.

PubMed Central

De Guire, L; Theriault, G; Iturra, H; Provencher, S; Cyr, D; Case, B W

1988-01-01

In 1982 physicians at a hospital melanoma clinic in Montreal noticed that among their patients there had been seven men working in a single telecommunications company. This raised suspicions that working in that industry might be associated with development of malignant melanoma of the skin (MMS). A preliminary gross comparison with general population rates indicated that there was an increased risk in this working group. To estimate the risk of MMS more accurately, a standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was calculated based on the rates of MMS in the local population of the Greater Metropolitan Montreal Area for the years 1976-83. During that period, among workers in all plants for the company, 10 male cases of MMS were observed for an expected number of 3.7 (SIR = 2.7; 95% CI = 1.31-5.02). No cases were observed among female workers (expected = 1.3). The excess was significant among cases with a short latency (less than 20 years since beginning of employment). There was no apparent pattern of exposure based on job titles or departments. PMID:3265335

Malignant pleural mesothelioma in US automotive mechanics: reported vs expected number of cases from 1975 to 2007.

PubMed

Finley, Brent L; Pierce, Jennifer S; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Scott, Laura L F; Lievense, Laura; Scott, Paul K; Galbraith, David A

2012-10-01

Until the 1980s, chrysotile asbestos was a component of automotive brakes manufactured in the US. The current OSHA Bulletin (2006) for brake repair cites a single study (Lemen, 2004) which concluded that the number of mesothelioma cases reported in the literature in "end-product users of friction materials" indicated an asbestos-related risk for auto mechanics. However, Lemen (2004) did not compare the reported number of cases to an "expected" value, even though pleural mesothelioma occurs in the general population in the absence of asbestos exposure. We compare the number of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) cases reported in the US literature among auto mechanics between 1975-2007 to an expected value derived from estimated numbers of current and former auto mechanics. A total of 106 cases categorized as mesothelioma or malignant neoplasm of the pleura were found in the literature. Using background incidence rates for MPM of two and three cases per million individuals per year, we estimated that a range of 278-515 cases of non-asbestos-related MPM, respectively, would have occurred in current or former auto mechanics from 1975-2007. Our findings are consistent with the numerous epidemiology studies that have found no increased risk of MPM in auto mechanics. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expected Shannon Entropy and Shannon Differentiation between Subpopulations for Neutral Genes under the Finite Island Model.

PubMed

Chao, Anne; Jost, Lou; Hsieh, T C; Ma, K H; Sherwin, William B; Rollins, Lee Ann

2015-01-01

Shannon entropy H and related measures are increasingly used in molecular ecology and population genetics because (1) unlike measures based on heterozygosity or allele number, these measures weigh alleles in proportion to their population fraction, thus capturing a previously-ignored aspect of allele frequency distributions that may be important in many applications; (2) these measures connect directly to the rich predictive mathematics of information theory; (3) Shannon entropy is completely additive and has an explicitly hierarchical nature; and (4) Shannon entropy-based differentiation measures obey strong monotonicity properties that heterozygosity-based measures lack. We derive simple new expressions for the expected values of the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distribution at a neutral locus in a single isolated population under two models of mutation: the infinite allele model and the stepwise mutation model. Surprisingly, this complex stochastic system for each model has an entropy expressable as a simple combination of well-known mathematical functions. Moreover, entropy- and heterozygosity-based measures for each model are linked by simple relationships that are shown by simulations to be approximately valid even far from equilibrium. We also identify a bridge between the two models of mutation. We apply our approach to subdivided populations which follow the finite island model, obtaining the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distributions of the subpopulations and of the total population. We also derive the expected mutual information and normalized mutual information ("Shannon differentiation") between subpopulations at equilibrium, and identify the model parameters that determine them. We apply our measures to data from the common starling (Sturnus vulgaris) in Australia. Our measures provide a test for neutrality that is robust to violations of equilibrium assumptions, as verified on real world data from starlings.

Variations in male-female infant ratios among births to Canadian- and Indian-born mothers, 1990-2011: a population-based register study.

PubMed

Urquia, Marcelo L; Ray, Joel G; Wanigaratne, Susitha; Moineddin, Rahim; O'Campo, Patricia J

2016-01-01

We assessed variations in the male-female infant ratios among births to Canadian-born and Indian-born mothers according to year of birth, province and country of birth of each parent. In this population-based register study, we analyzed birth certificates of 5 853 970 singleton live births to Canadian-born and 177 990 singleton live births to Indian-born mothers giving birth in Canada from 1990 to 2011. Male-female ratios were stratified by live birth order and plotted by year of birth. Logistic regression was used to assess whether ratios varied between Canadian provinces and according to the birthplace of each parent. The deficit in the number of girls was estimated using bootstrap methods. Among Canadian-born mothers, male-female ratios were about 1.05, with negligible fluctuations by birth order, year and province. Among Indian-born mothers, the overall male-female ratio at the third birth was 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-1.41) and was 1.66 (95% CI 1.56-1.76) at the fourth or higher-order births. There was little variability in the ratios between provinces. Couples involving at least 1 Indian-born parent had higher than expected male-female ratios at the second and higher-order births, particularly when the father was Indian-born. The deficit in the expected number of girls among Indian immigrants to Canada in the study period was estimated to be 4472 (95% CI 3211-5921). Fewer than expected girls at the third and higher-order births have been born to Indian immigrants across Canada since 1990. This trend was also seen among couples of mixed nativity, including those involving a Canadian-born mother and an Indian-born father. Fathers should be considered when investigating sex ratios at birth.

Variations in male-female infant ratios among births to Canadian- and Indian-born mothers, 1990-2011: a population-based register study

PubMed Central

Urquia, Marcelo L.; Ray, Joel G.; Wanigaratne, Susitha; Moineddin, Rahim; O'Campo, Patricia J.

2016-01-01

Background: We assessed variations in the male-female infant ratios among births to Canadian-born and Indian-born mothers according to year of birth, province and country of birth of each parent. Methods: In this population-based register study, we analyzed birth certificates of 5 853 970 singleton live births to Canadian-born and 177 990 singleton live births to Indian-born mothers giving birth in Canada from 1990 to 2011. Male-female ratios were stratified by live birth order and plotted by year of birth. Logistic regression was used to assess whether ratios varied between Canadian provinces and according to the birthplace of each parent. The deficit in the number of girls was estimated using bootstrap methods. Results: Among Canadian-born mothers, male-female ratios were about 1.05, with negligible fluctuations by birth order, year and province. Among Indian-born mothers, the overall male-female ratio at the third birth was 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-1.41) and was 1.66 (95% CI 1.56-1.76) at the fourth or higher-order births. There was little variability in the ratios between provinces. Couples involving at least 1 Indian-born parent had higher than expected male-female ratios at the second and higher-order births, particularly when the father was Indian-born. The deficit in the expected number of girls among Indian immigrants to Canada in the study period was estimated to be 4472 (95% CI 3211-5921). Interpretation: Fewer than expected girls at the third and higher-order births have been born to Indian immigrants across Canada since 1990. This trend was also seen among couples of mixed nativity, including those involving a Canadian-born mother and an Indian-born father. Fathers should be considered when investigating sex ratios at birth. PMID:27398354

Form-To-Expectation Matching Effects on First-Pass Eye Movement Measures During Reading

PubMed Central

Farmer, Thomas A.; Yan, Shaorong; Bicknell, Klinton; Tanenhaus, Michael K.

2015-01-01

Recent EEG/MEG studies suggest that when contextual information is highly predictive of some property of a linguistic signal, expectations generated from context can be translated into surprisingly low-level estimates of the physical form-based properties likely to occur in subsequent portions of the unfolding signal. Whether form-based expectations are generated and assessed during natural reading, however, remains unclear. We monitored eye movements while participants read phonologically typical and atypical nouns in noun-predictive contexts (Experiment 1), demonstrating that when a noun is strongly expected, fixation durations on first-pass eye movement measures, including first fixation duration, gaze duration, and go-past times, are shorter for nouns with category typical form-based features. In Experiments 2 and 3, typical and atypical nouns were placed in sentential contexts normed to create expectations of variable strength for a noun. Context and typicality interacted significantly at gaze duration. These results suggest that during reading, form-based expectations that are translated from higher-level category-based expectancies can facilitate the processing of a word in context, and that their effect on lexical processing is graded based on the strength of category expectancy. PMID:25915072

Comprehensive model-based prediction of micropollutants from diffuse sources in the Swiss river network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strahm, Ivo; Munz, Nicole; Braun, Christian; Gälli, René; Leu, Christian; Stamm, Christian

2014-05-01

Water quality in the Swiss river network is affected by many micropollutants from a variety of diffuse sources. This study compares, for the first time, in a comprehensive manner the diffuse sources and the substance groups that contribute the most to water contamination in Swiss streams and highlights the major regions for water pollution. For this a simple but comprehensive model was developed to estimate emission from diffuse sources for the entire Swiss river network of 65 000 km. Based on emission factors the model calculates catchment specific losses to streams for more than 15 diffuse sources (such as crop lands, grassland, vineyards, fruit orchards, roads, railways, facades, roofs, green space in urban areas, landfills, etc.) and more than 130 different substances from 5 different substance groups (pesticides, biocides, heavy metals, human drugs, animal drugs). For more than 180 000 stream sections estimates of mean annual pollutant loads and mean annual concentration levels were modeled. This data was validated with a set of monitoring data and evaluated based on annual average environmental quality standards (AA-EQS). Model validation showed that the estimated mean annual concentration levels are within the range of measured data. Therefore simulations were considered as adequately robust for identifying the major sources of diffuse pollution. The analysis depicted that in Switzerland widespread pollution of streams can be expected. Along more than 18 000 km of the river network one or more simulated substances has a concentration exceeding the AA-EQS. In single stream sections it could be more than 50 different substances. Moreover, the simulations showed that in two-thirds of small streams (Strahler order 1 and 2) at least one AA-EQS is always exceeded. The highest number of substances exceeding the AA-EQS are in areas with large fractions of arable cropping, vineyards and fruit orchards. Urban areas are also of concern even without considering wastewater treatment plants. Only a small number of problematic substances are expected from grassland. Landfills and roadways are insignificant within the entire Swiss river network, but may locally lead to considerable water pollution. Considering all substance groups, pesticides and some heavy metals are the main polluters. Many pesticides are expected to exceed AA-EQS and in a substantial percentage of the river network. Modeling a large number of substances from many sources and a huge quantity of stream sections is only possible with a simple model. Nevertheless conclusions are robust and may indicate where and for what kind of substance groups additional efforts for water quality improvements should be undertaken.

Overview of Boundary Layer Transition Research in Support of Orbiter Return To Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berry, Scott A.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Greene, Francis A.; Kinder, Gerald R.; Wang, K. C.

2006-01-01

A predictive tool for estimating the onset of boundary layer transition resulting from damage to and/or repair of the thermal protection system was developed in support of Shuttle Return to Flight. The boundary layer transition tool is part of a suite of tools that analyze the aerothermodynamic environment to the local thermal protection system to allow informed disposition of damage for making recommendations to fly as is or to repair. Using mission specific trajectory information and details of each damage site or repair, the expected time (and thus Mach number) at transition onset is predicted to help define the aerothermodynamic environment to use in the subsequent thermal and stress analysis of the local thermal protection system and structure. The boundary layer transition criteria utilized for the tool was developed from ground-based measurements to account for the effect of both protuberances and cavities and has been calibrated against select flight data. Computed local boundary layer edge conditions were used to correlate the results, specifically the momentum thickness Reynolds number over the edge Mach number and the boundary layer thickness. For the initial Return to Flight mission, STS-114, empirical curve coefficients of 27, 100, and 900 were selected to predict transition onset for protuberances based on height, and cavities based on depth and length, respectively.

Analysis of Gap in Service Quality in Drug Addiction Treatment Centers of Kerman, Iran, Using SERVQUAL Model.

PubMed

Naqavi, Mohammad Reza; Refaiee, Raheleh; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Nakhaee, Nouzar

2014-01-01

Treatment of drug addicts is one of the main strategies of drug control in Iran. Client satisfaction strongly influences the success of any treatment program. This study aimed to explore the difference between customer expectations and perceptions in drug addiction treatment centers of Kerman, Iran, using SERVQUAL model. Using a cross-sectional design 260 clients referring to drug addiction treatment centers of Kerman, were enrolled in 2012. From among 84 clinics, 20 centers were selected randomly. Based on the number of clients registered in each center, a random sample proportional to the size was selected and 290 subjects were invited for interviews. A well validated 22-item questionnaire, which measured the 5 dimensions of service quality (reliability, assurance, tangibility, empathy, and responsiveness), was completed by participants. Each item measured 2 aspects of service quality; expectations and perceptions. Mean ± SD (Standard deviation) age of the subjects was 37.7 ± 9.4. Most of them were male (87.7%). Less than half of them had an educational level lower than diploma. The total score of clients` expectations was higher than their perceptions (P < 0.001). Considering the 5 dimensions of the SERVQUAL model, only 1 dimension (i.e., assurance) showed no difference between perceptions and expectations of the participants (P = 0.134). There was a gap between the clients' expectations and what they actually perceived in the clinics. Thus, more attention should be devoted to the clients' views regarding service quality in addiction treatment clinics.

Aging in America in the Twenty-first Century: Demographic Forecasts from the MacArthur Foundation Research Network on an Aging Society

PubMed Central

Olshansky, S Jay; Goldman, Dana P; Zheng, Yuhui; Rowe, John W

2009-01-01

Context: The aging of the baby boom generation, the extension of life, and progressive increases in disability-free life expectancy have generated a dramatic demographic transition in the United States. Official government forecasts may, however, have inadvertently underestimated life expectancy, which would have major policy implications, since small differences in forecasts of life expectancy produce very large differences in the number of people surviving to an older age. This article presents a new set of population and life expectancy forecasts for the United States, focusing on transitions that will take place by midcentury. Methods: Forecasts were made with a cohort-components methodology, based on the premise that the risk of death will be influenced in the coming decades by accelerated advances in biomedical technology that either delay the onset and age progression of major fatal diseases or that slow the aging process itself. Findings: Results indicate that the current forecasts of the U.S. Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau may underestimate the rise in life expectancy at birth for men and women combined, by 2050, from 3.1 to 7.9 years. Conclusions: The cumulative outlays for Medicare and Social Security could be higher by $3.2 to $8.3 trillion relative to current government forecasts. This article discusses the implications of these results regarding the benefits and costs of an aging society and the prospect that health disparities could attenuate some of these changes. PMID:20021588

Multi-ray-based system matrix generation for 3D PET reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moehrs, Sascha; Defrise, Michel; Belcari, Nicola; DelGuerra, Alberto; Bartoli, Antonietta; Fabbri, Serena; Zanetti, Gianluigi

2008-12-01

Iterative image reconstruction algorithms for positron emission tomography (PET) require a sophisticated system matrix (model) of the scanner. Our aim is to set up such a model offline for the YAP-(S)PET II small animal imaging tomograph in order to use it subsequently with standard ML-EM (maximum-likelihood expectation maximization) and OSEM (ordered subset expectation maximization) for fully three-dimensional image reconstruction. In general, the system model can be obtained analytically, via measurements or via Monte Carlo simulations. In this paper, we present the multi-ray method, which can be considered as a hybrid method to set up the system model offline. It incorporates accurate analytical (geometric) considerations as well as crystal depth and crystal scatter effects. At the same time, it has the potential to model seamlessly other physical aspects such as the positron range. The proposed method is based on multiple rays which are traced from/to the detector crystals through the image volume. Such a ray-tracing approach itself is not new; however, we derive a novel mathematical formulation of the approach and investigate the positioning of the integration (ray-end) points. First, we study single system matrix entries and show that the positioning and weighting of the ray-end points according to Gaussian integration give better results compared to equally spaced integration points (trapezoidal integration), especially if only a small number of integration points (rays) are used. Additionally, we show that, for a given variance of the single matrix entries, the number of rays (events) required to calculate the whole matrix is a factor of 20 larger when using a pure Monte-Carlo-based method. Finally, we analyse the quality of the model by reconstructing phantom data from the YAP-(S)PET II scanner.

Sampling ARG of multiple populations under complex configurations of subdivision and admixture.

PubMed

Carrieri, Anna Paola; Utro, Filippo; Parida, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Simulating complex evolution scenarios of multiple populations is an important task for answering many basic questions relating to population genomics. Apart from the population samples, the underlying Ancestral Recombinations Graph (ARG) is an additional important means in hypothesis checking and reconstruction studies. Furthermore, complex simulations require a plethora of interdependent parameters making even the scenario-specification highly non-trivial. We present an algorithm SimRA that simulates generic multiple population evolution model with admixture. It is based on random graphs that improve dramatically in time and space requirements of the classical algorithm of single populations.Using the underlying random graphs model, we also derive closed forms of expected values of the ARG characteristics i.e., height of the graph, number of recombinations, number of mutations and population diversity in terms of its defining parameters. This is crucial in aiding the user to specify meaningful parameters for the complex scenario simulations, not through trial-and-error based on raw compute power but intelligent parameter estimation. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time closed form expressions have been computed for the ARG properties. We show that the expected values closely match the empirical values through simulations.Finally, we demonstrate that SimRA produces the ARG in compact forms without compromising any accuracy. We demonstrate the compactness and accuracy through extensive experiments. SimRA (Simulation based on Random graph Algorithms) source, executable, user manual and sample input-output sets are available for downloading at: https://github.com/ComputationalGenomics/SimRA CONTACT: : parida@us.ibm.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Geometric Accuracy Analysis of Worlddem in Relation to AW3D30, Srtm and Aster GDEM2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayburt, S.; Kurtak, A. B.; Büyüksalih, G.; Jacobsen, K.

2017-05-01

In a project area close to Istanbul the quality of WorldDEM, AW3D30, SRTM DSM and ASTER GDEM2 have been analyzed in relation to a reference aerial LiDAR DEM and to each other. The random and the systematic height errors have been separated. The absolute offset for all height models in X, Y and Z is within the expectation. The shifts have been respected in advance for a satisfying estimation of the random error component. All height models are influenced by some tilts, different in size. In addition systematic deformations can be seen not influencing the standard deviation too much. The delivery of WorldDEM includes information about the height error map which is based on the interferometric phase errors, and the number and location of coverage's from different orbits. A dependency of the height accuracy from the height error map information and the number of coverage's can be seen, but it is smaller as expected. WorldDEM is more accurate as the other investigated height models and with 10 m point spacing it includes more morphologic details, visible at contour lines. The morphologic details are close to the details based on the LiDAR digital surface model (DSM). As usual a dependency of the accuracy from the terrain slope can be seen. In forest areas the canopy definition of InSAR X- and C-band height models as well as for the height models based on optical satellite images is not the same as the height definition by LiDAR. In addition the interferometric phase uncertainty over forest areas is larger. Both effects lead to lower height accuracy in forest areas, also visible in the height error map.

Predicting Drug-Target Interactions Based on Small Positive Samples.

PubMed

Hu, Pengwei; Chan, Keith C C; Hu, Yanxing

2018-01-01

A basic task in drug discovery is to find new medication in the form of candidate compounds that act on a target protein. In other words, a drug has to interact with a target and such drug-target interaction (DTI) is not expected to be random. Significant and interesting patterns are expected to be hidden in them. If these patterns can be discovered, new drugs are expected to be more easily discoverable. Currently, a number of computational methods have been proposed to predict DTIs based on their similarity. However, such as approach does not allow biochemical features to be directly considered. As a result, some methods have been proposed to try to discover patterns in physicochemical interactions. Since the number of potential negative DTIs are very high both in absolute terms and in comparison to that of the known ones, these methods are rather computationally expensive and they can only rely on subsets, rather than the full set, of negative DTIs for training and validation. As there is always a relatively high chance for negative DTIs to be falsely identified and as only partial subset of such DTIs is considered, existing approaches can be further improved to better predict DTIs. In this paper, we present a novel approach, called ODT (one class drug target interaction prediction), for such purpose. One main task of ODT is to discover association patterns between interacting drugs and proteins from the chemical structure of the former and the protein sequence network of the latter. ODT does so in two phases. First, the DTI-network is transformed to a representation by structural properties. Second, it applies a oneclass classification algorithm to build a prediction model based only on known positive interactions. We compared the best AUROC scores of the ODT with several state-of-art approaches on Gold standard data. The prediction accuracy of the ODT is superior in comparison with all the other methods at GPCRs dataset and Ion channels dataset. Performance evaluation of ODT shows that it can be potentially useful. It confirms that predicting potential or missing DTIs based on the known interactions is a promising direction to solve problems related to the use of uncertain and unreliable negative samples and those related to the great demand in computational resources. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

454 Pyrosequencing to Describe Microbial Eukaryotic Community Composition, Diversity and Relative Abundance: A Test for Marine Haptophytes

PubMed Central

Egge, Elianne; Bittner, Lucie; Andersen, Tom; Audic, Stéphane; de Vargas, Colomban; Edvardsen, Bente

2013-01-01

Next generation sequencing of ribosomal DNA is increasingly used to assess the diversity and structure of microbial communities. Here we test the ability of 454 pyrosequencing to detect the number of species present, and assess the relative abundance in terms of cell numbers and biomass of protists in the phylum Haptophyta. We used a mock community consisting of equal number of cells of 11 haptophyte species and compared targeting DNA and RNA/cDNA, and two different V4 SSU rDNA haptophyte-biased primer pairs. Further, we tested four different bioinformatic filtering methods to reduce errors in the resulting sequence dataset. With sequencing depth of 11000–20000 reads and targeting cDNA with Haptophyta specific primers Hap454 we detected all 11 species. A rarefaction analysis of expected number of species recovered as a function of sampling depth suggested that minimum 1400 reads were required here to recover all species in the mock community. Relative read abundance did not correlate to relative cell numbers. Although the species represented with the largest biomass was also proportionally most abundant among the reads, there was generally a weak correlation between proportional read abundance and proportional biomass of the different species, both with DNA and cDNA as template. The 454 sequencing generated considerable spurious diversity, and more with cDNA than DNA as template. With initial filtering based only on match with barcode and primer we observed 100-fold more operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at 99% similarity than the number of species present in the mock community. Filtering based on quality scores, or denoising with PyroNoise resulted in ten times more OTU99% than the number of species. Denoising with AmpliconNoise reduced the number of OTU99% to match the number of species present in the mock community. Based on our analyses, we propose a strategy to more accurately depict haptophyte diversity using 454 pyrosequencing. PMID:24069303

The influence of habitat, prey abundance, sex, and breeding success on the ranging behavior of Prairie Falcons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marzluff, J.M.; Kimsey, Bryan A.; Schueck, Linda S.; McFadzen, Mary E.; Vekasy, M.S.; Bednarz, James C.

1997-01-01

We studied the ranging behavior and habitat selection of radio-tagged Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) during the breeding season in southwestern Idaho. The distribution and numbers of Townsend's ground squirrels (Spermophilus townsendii), the primary prey of Prairie Falcons in our study area, varied in response to drought during the study period. Prairie Falcons ranged over large areas (ca. 300 km2) and increased their foraging ranges in response to declining ground squirrels. Reptiles and birds were preyed upon most frequently when squirrels were rare. Males and females differed little in their use of space. Successful pairs ranged over smaller areas than non-nesters and unsuccessful pairs. Falcons nesting near habitat most suitable for ground squirrels ranged over smaller areas than those nesting farther from such habitat. Home ranges contained significantly more winterfat (Ceratoides lanata) and native perennial grasses (especially Poa secunda), and significantly less salt desert shrubs and exotic annual grasses than expected based on availability. Salt desert shrubs were found less than expected, based on availability in core areas within home ranges. Selection for winterfat and bluegrass in core areas was contingent upon selection at the larger scale of the home range; falcons with home ranges containing more winterfat and bluegrass than expected based on availability were less selective in their placement of core areas with respect to these habitats. We believe salient features of Prairie Falcon home ranges result largely from patchy distribution of landscape features associated with different densities and availabilities of Townsend's ground squirrels.

Difference between observed and expected number of involved lymph nodes reflects the metastatic potential of breast cancer independent to intrinsic subtype.

PubMed

Yu, Ke-Da; Jiang, Yi-Zhou; Shao, Zhi-Ming

2015-06-30

Poor prognosis associated with metastasis in breast cancer patients highlights the critical need to develop an effective evaluation model for metastatic potential (MP). We hypothesized that MP could be also indicated by primary tumor size and involved lymph nodes (LNs). The expected number of involved LNs is defined as tumor size (cm) divided by 1.5. The effect of the surrogate for MP (defined as difference between the number of observed and expected involved LNs) on breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) was investigated in the first cohort from SEER (n = 108,814). Validation was performed in another SEER cohort (n = 50,414) and a third cohort (n = 3,755). MP is an independent predictor for BCSS in the overall population [hazard ratio (HR) for high MP: 2.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.80-3.03] and in subgroups. The effect of surrogate for MP on survival was independent to intrinsic subtype, with adjusted HRs of 3.46 (95%CI, 2.02-5.93), 2.30 (95%CI, 1.64-3.24), 4.05 (95%CI, 2.85-5.76), and 1.45 (95%CI, 1.04-2.03) in luminal-A, luminal-B, triple-negative, and HER2-positive subtypes, respectively. Difference between the observed and expected number of involved LNs serves as an indicator for MP, which is independent to intrinsic subtype and could predict survival. Our findings need further validation.

A direct approach to estimating the number of potential fatalities from an eruption: Application to the Central Volcanic Complex of Tenerife Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, J. M.; García, A.; Llinares, A.; Rodriguez-Losada, J. A.; Ortiz, R.

2012-03-01

One of the critical issues in managing volcanic crises is making the decision to evacuate a densely-populated region. In order to take a decision of such importance it is essential to estimate the cost in lives for each of the expected eruptive scenarios. One of the tools that assist in estimating the number of potential fatalities for such decision-making is the calculation of the FN-curves. In this case the FN-curve is a graphical representation that relates the frequency of the different hazards to be expected for a particular volcano or volcanic area, and the number of potential fatalities expected for each event if the zone of impact is not evacuated. In this study we propose a method for assessing the impact that a possible eruption from the Tenerife Central Volcanic Complex (CVC) would have on the population at risk. Factors taken into account include the spatial probability of the eruptive scenarios (susceptibility) and the temporal probability of the magnitudes of the eruptive scenarios. For each point or cell of the susceptibility map with greater probability, a series of probability-scaled hazard maps is constructed for the whole range of magnitudes expected. The number of potential fatalities is obtained from the intersection of the hazard maps with the spatial map of population distribution. The results show that the Emergency Plan for Tenerife must provide for the evacuation of more than 100,000 persons.

The Relationship between the Shape of the Mental Number Line and Familiarity with Numbers in 5- to 9-Year Old Children: Evidence for a Segmented Linear Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ebersbach, Mirjam; Luwel, Koen; Frick, Andrea; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven

2008-01-01

This experiment aimed to expand previous findings on the development of mental number representation. We tested the hypothesis that children's familiarity with numbers is directly reflected by the shape of their mental number line. This mental number line was expected to be linear as long as numbers lay within the range of numbers children were…

Displacement based multilevel structural optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Striz, Alfred G.

1995-01-01

Multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) is expected to play a major role in the competitive transportation industries of tomorrow, i.e., in the design of aircraft and spacecraft, of high speed trains, boats, and automobiles. All of these vehicles require maximum performance at minimum weight to keep fuel consumption low and conserve resources. Here, MDO can deliver mathematically based design tools to create systems with optimum performance subject to the constraints of disciplines such as structures, aerodynamics, controls, etc. Although some applications of MDO are beginning to surface, the key to a widespread use of this technology lies in the improvement of its efficiency. This aspect is investigated here for the MDO subset of structural optimization, i.e., for the weight minimization of a given structure under size, strength, and displacement constraints. Specifically, finite element based multilevel optimization of structures (here, statically indeterminate trusses and beams for proof of concept) is performed. In the system level optimization, the design variables are the coefficients of assumed displacement functions, and the load unbalance resulting from the solution of the stiffness equations is minimized. Constraints are placed on the deflection amplitudes and the weight of the structure. In the subsystems level optimizations, the weight of each element is minimized under the action of stress constraints, with the cross sectional dimensions as design variables. This approach is expected to prove very efficient, especially for complex structures, since the design task is broken down into a large number of small and efficiently handled subtasks, each with only a small number of variables. This partitioning will also allow for the use of parallel computing, first, by sending the system and subsystems level computations to two different processors, ultimately, by performing all subsystems level optimizations in a massively parallel manner on separate processors. It is expected that the subsystems level optimizations can be further improved through the use of controlled growth, a method which reduces an optimization to a more efficient analysis with only a slight degradation in accuracy. The efficiency of all proposed techniques is being evaluated relative to the performance of the standard single level optimization approach where the complete structure is weight minimized under the action of all given constraints by one processor and to the performance of simultaneous analysis and design which combines analysis and optimization into a single step. It is expected that the present approach can be expanded to include additional structural constraints (buckling, free and forced vibration, etc.) or other disciplines (passive and active controls, aerodynamics, etc.) for true MDO.

Diffusion of an Evidence-Based Smoking Cessation Intervention Through Facebook: A Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Cobb, Nathan K.; Jacobs, Megan A.; Wileyto, Paul; Valente, Thomas

2016-01-01

Objectives. To examine the diffusion of an evidence-based smoking cessation application (“app”) through Facebook social networks and identify specific intervention components that accelerate diffusion. Methods. Between December 2012 and October 2013, we recruited adult US smokers (“seeds”) via Facebook advertising and randomized them to 1 of 12 app variants using a factorial design. App variants targeted components of diffusion: duration of use (t), “contagiousness” (β), and number of contacts (Z). The primary outcome was the reproductive ratio (R), defined as the number of individuals installing the app (“descendants”) divided by the number of a seed participant’s Facebook friends. Results. We randomized 9042 smokers. App utilization metrics demonstrated between-variant differences in expected directions. The highest level of diffusion (R = 0.087) occurred when we combined active contagion strategies with strategies to increase duration of use (incidence rate ratio = 9.99; 95% confidence interval = 5.58, 17.91; P < .001). Involving nonsmokers did not affect diffusion. Conclusions. The maximal R value (0.087) is sufficient to increase the numbers of individuals receiving treatment if applied on a large scale. Online interventions can be designed a priori to spread through social networks. PMID:27077358

Characterizing Protease Specificity: How Many Substrates Do We Need?

PubMed Central

Schauperl, Michael; Fuchs, Julian E.; Waldner, Birgit J.; Huber, Roland G.; Kramer, Christian; Liedl, Klaus R.

2015-01-01

Calculation of cleavage entropies allows to quantify, map and compare protease substrate specificity by an information entropy based approach. The metric intrinsically depends on the number of experimentally determined substrates (data points). Thus a statistical analysis of its numerical stability is crucial to estimate the systematic error made by estimating specificity based on a limited number of substrates. In this contribution, we show the mathematical basis for estimating the uncertainty in cleavage entropies. Sets of cleavage entropies are calculated using experimental cleavage data and modeled extreme cases. By analyzing the underlying mathematics and applying statistical tools, a linear dependence of the metric in respect to 1/n was found. This allows us to extrapolate the values to an infinite number of samples and to estimate the errors. Analyzing the errors, a minimum number of 30 substrates was found to be necessary to characterize substrate specificity, in terms of amino acid variability, for a protease (S4-S4’) with an uncertainty of 5 percent. Therefore, we encourage experimental researchers in the protease field to record specificity profiles of novel proteases aiming to identify at least 30 peptide substrates of maximum sequence diversity. We expect a full characterization of protease specificity helpful to rationalize biological functions of proteases and to assist rational drug design. PMID:26559682

Entropy-based financial asset pricing.

PubMed

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.

Entropy-Based Financial Asset Pricing

PubMed Central

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return – entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy. PMID:25545668

[Strength and weaknesses of the German digital health economy].

PubMed

Leppert, Florian; Gerlach, Jan; Ostwald, Dennis A; Greiner, Wolfgang

2017-07-26

There are high expectations from digitalization of health care, ehealth and telemedicine. Nevertheless, the diffusion of these services falls short of expectations. This study analyses the strength and weaknesses of the German digital health economy. Thereby, we specially focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). The study is based on a literature review, interviews of experts and a workshop. The digital health economy is influenced by a heterogeneous environment with both promotive and obstructive factors. One of the largest weaknesses results from a lack of business models. There is a lack of possibilities of reimbursement by the Statutory Health Insurance (SHI). In addition, private users only have a small willingness to pay for digital services. The large number of regulations makes the implementation even harder, especially for SMEs. Thus, the current environment hampers fast diffusion of digital services in the German health care market. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Nilpotent Quantum Mechanics: Analogues and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcer, Peter; Rowlands, Peter

2017-07-01

The most significant characteristic of nilpotent quantum mechanics is that the quantum system (fermion state) and its environment (vacuum) are, in mathematical terms, mirror images of each other. So a change in one automatically leads to corresponding changes in the other. We have used this characteristic as a model for self-organization, which has applications well beyond quantum physics. The nilpotent structure has also been identified as being constructed from two commutative vector spaces. This construction has a number of identifiable characteristics which we can expect to find in systems where self-organization is dominant, and a case presented after the publication of a paper by us on ‘The ‘Logic’ of Self-Organizing Systems’,1 in the organization of the neurons in the visual cortex. We expect to find many more complex systems where our general principles, based, by analogy, on nilpotent quantum mechanics, will apply.

[Application of network biology on study of traditional Chinese medicine].

PubMed

Tian, Sai-Sai; Yang, Jian; Zhao, Jing; Zhang, Wei-Dong

2018-01-01

With the completion of the human genome project, people have gradually recognized that the functions of the biological system are fulfilled through network-type interaction between genes, proteins and small molecules, while complex diseases are caused by the imbalance of biological processes due to a number of gene expression disorders. These have contributed to the rise of the concept of the "multi-target" drug discovery. Treatment and diagnosis of traditional Chinese medicine are based on holism and syndrome differentiation. At the molecular level, traditional Chinese medicine is characterized by multi-component and multi-target prescriptions, which is expected to provide a reference for the development of multi-target drugs. This paper reviews the application of network biology in traditional Chinese medicine in six aspects, in expectation to provide a reference to the modernized study of traditional Chinese medicine. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Property Differencing for Incremental Checking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Guowei; Khurshid, Sarfraz; Person, Suzette; Rungta, Neha

2014-01-01

This paper introduces iProperty, a novel approach that facilitates incremental checking of programs based on a property di erencing technique. Speci cally, iProperty aims to reduce the cost of checking properties as they are initially developed and as they co-evolve with the program. The key novelty of iProperty is to compute the di erences between the new and old versions of expected properties to reduce the number and size of the properties that need to be checked during the initial development of the properties. Furthermore, property di erencing is used in synergy with program behavior di erencing techniques to optimize common regression scenarios, such as detecting regression errors or checking feature additions for conformance to new expected properties. Experimental results in the context of symbolic execution of Java programs annotated with properties written as assertions show the e ectiveness of iProperty in utilizing change information to enable more ecient checking.

Search For Dark Matter Satellites Using Fermi-Lat

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.

2012-02-23

Numerical simulations based on the ΛCDM model of cosmology predict a large number of as yet unobserved Galactic dark matter satellites. We report the results of a Large Area Telescope (LAT) search for these satellites via the γ-ray emission expected from the annihilation of weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. Some dark matter satellites are expected to have hard γ-ray spectra, finite angular extents, and a lack of counterparts at other wavelengths. We sought to identify LAT sources with these characteristics, focusing on γ-ray spectra consistent with WIMP annihilation through themore » $$b \\bar{b}$$ channel. We found no viable dark matter satellite candidates using one year of data, and we present a framework for interpreting this result in the context of numerical simulations to constrain the velocity-averaged annihilation cross section for a conventional 100 GeV WIMP annihilating through the $$b \\bar{b}$$ channel.« less

Search for Dark Matter Satellites Using the Fermi-Lat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackermann, M.; Albert, A.; Baldini, L.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bechtol, K.; Bellazzini, R.; Blandford, R. D.; Bloom, E. D.;

WFIRST: Exoplanet Target Selection and Scheduling with Greedy Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keithly, Dean; Garrett, Daniel; Delacroix, Christian; Savransky, Dmitry

2018-01-01

We present target selection and scheduling algorithms for missions with direct imaging of exoplanets, and the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) in particular, which will be equipped with a coronagraphic instrument (CGI). Optimal scheduling of CGI targets can maximize the expected value of directly imaged exoplanets (completeness). Using target completeness as a reward metric and integration time plus overhead time as a cost metric, we can maximize the sum completeness for a mission with a fixed duration. We optimize over these metrics to create a list of target stars using a greedy optimization algorithm based off altruistic yield optimization (AYO) under ideal conditions. We simulate full missions using EXOSIMS by observing targets in this list for their predetermined integration times. In this poster, we report the theoretical maximum sum completeness, mean number of detected exoplanets from Monte Carlo simulations, and the ideal expected value of the simulated missions.

Isolation and Characterization of Polymorphic Microsatellite Loci from Metapenaeopsis barbata Using PCR-Based Isolation of Microsatellite Arrays (PIMA)

PubMed Central

Chiang, Tzen-Yuh; Tzeng, Tzong-Der; Lin, Hung-Du; Cho, Ching-Ju; Lin, Feng-Jiau

2012-01-01

The red-spot prawn, Metapenaeopsis barbata, is a commercially important, widely distributed demersal species in the Indo-West Pacific Ocean. Overfishing has made its populations decline in the past decade. To study conservation genetics, eight polymorphic microsatellite loci were isolated. Genetic characteristics of the SSR (simple sequence repeat) fingerprints were estimated in 61 individuals from adjacent seas of Taiwan and China. The number of alleles, ranging from 2 to 4, as well as observed and expected heterozygosities in populations, ranging from 0.048 to 0.538, and 0.048 and 0.654, respectively, were detected. No deviation from Hardy–Weinberg expectations was detected at either locus. No significant linkage disequilibrium was detected in locus pairs. The polymorphic microsatellite loci will be useful for investigations of the genetic variation, population structure, and conservation genetics of this species. PMID:22489123

Treatment Options in IBD

MedlinePlus

... have generated a number of exciting opportunities for therapeutic intervention. Before 1990, only a few types of ... we can expect an even greater number of therapeutic choices in the years ahead. The Aims of ...

Epidemiological Follow-up 15 Years after the Breast Cancer Scandal in Essen

PubMed Central

Hauth, E. A. M.; Berkemeyer, S.; Jaeger, H.; Forsting, M.; Hoffmann, B.; Jöckel, K.-H.

2012-01-01

Purpose: In the years 1993–1996 a number of presumably false-positive breast cancer diagnoses were made by a pathologist in Essen. A follow-up, undertaken 15 years later, investigated how many women had tumour recurrence and/or metastasis or had died from breast cancer. Material and Methods: A total of 151 (68 %) out of 222 women could be traced. One hundred and forty-seven (66.2 %) of the 222 women were alive. The observed survival rate, number of recurrences and/or metastases, and number of deaths from breast cancer were compared with data from the Munich Tumour Registry. The number of breast cancer cases among daughters of the affected women was ascertained. Results: The total observed survival rate at follow-up after 15 years was 93 %, a much higher figure than the survival rate of 45 % given by the Munich Tumour Registry. Recurrence and/or metastasis or death from breast cancer occurred in 9/222 cases (4.1 %). The incidence for these events calculated according to data from the Munich Tumour Registry is 13 %. Two daughters (2.2 %) out of a total of 90 were diagnosed with breast cancer whereas, according to the German Cancer Research Centre, the expected rate would have been between 5 and 10 %. Conclusions: The results of our follow-up after 15 years show that more women survived than expected and that the number of recurrences and/or metastases and deaths due to breast cancer was lower than expected. Fewer daughters of affected women were diagnosed with breast cancer than expected. These results support our suspicion that not all women diagnosed with breast cancer by a pathologist in Essen actually had breast cancer. PMID:25284840

Air Force Civil Engineer, Volume 15, Number 3, 2007

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

Korea during the winter. The runway is made of pierced steel plank . (U.S. Air Force photo) Transforming Air Force Firefighting...expect the fire chief and fire marshal to inform installation leadership when the mission is potentially impacted and to advocate risk mitigation...measures, and we expect leadership to listen. The use of “manage” in the phrase indicates that FES flights are expected to manage the event to the

Constraints on the Energy Density Content of the Universe Using Only Clusters of Galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Sandor M.; Haiman, Zoltan; Birkinshaw, Mark

2003-01-01

We demonstrate that it is possible to constrain the energy content of the Universe with high accuracy using observations of clusters of galaxies only. The degeneracies in the cosmological parameters are lifted by combining constraints from different observables of galaxy clusters. We show that constraints on cosmological parameters from galaxy cluster number counts as a function of redshift and accurate angular diameter distance measurements to clusters are complementary to each other and their combination can constrain the energy density content of the Universe well. The number counts can be obtained from X-ray and/or SZ (Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect) surveys, the angular diameter distances can be determined from deep observations of the intra-cluster gas using their thermal bremsstrahlung X-ray emission and the SZ effect (X-SZ method). In this letter we combine constraints from simulated cluster number counts expected from a 12 deg2 SZ cluster survey and constraints from simulated angular diameter distance measurements based on using the X-SZ method assuming an expected accuracy of 7% in the angular diameter distance determination of 70 clusters with redshifts less than 1.5. We find that R, can be determined within about 25%, A within 20%, and w within 16%. Any cluster survey can be used to select clusters for high accuracy distance measurements, but we assumed accurate angular diameter distance measurements for only 70 clusters since long observations are necessary to achieve high accuracy in distance measurements. Thus the question naturally arises: How to select clusters of galaxies for accurate diameter distance determinations? In this letter, as an example, we demonstrate that it is possible to optimize this selection changing the number of clusters observed, and the upper cut off of their redshift range. We show that constraints on cosmological parameters from combining cluster number counts and angular diameter distance measurements, as opposed to general expectations, will not improve substantially selecting clusters with redshifts higher than one. This important conclusion allow us to restrict our cluster sample to clusters closer than one, in a range where the observational time for accurate distance measurements are more manageable. Subject headings: cosmological parameters - cosmology: theory - galaxies: clusters: general - X-rays: galaxies: clusters

International space Launch Services Today, ILS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rymarcsuk, James A.; Haase, Ethan E.

2002-01-01

In the last five years the international space launch industry has undergone substantial change. New entrants and existing players in this market have introduced new and upgraded vehicles with greater lift capability than was available five years ago. In addition, some of these vehicles offer reduced risk from their predecessors thanks to design improvements and reductions in the number of failure points. The entry of these vehicles have generated greater supply, increased choice, and improved capabilities to the benefit of satellite operators and manufacturers. Some launch service providers have also enhanced the products and services they offer due to the increased competitiveness in the market. Although the number of commercial satellites launched per year has remained within a fairly narrow range in the last five years, expectations for the future that were once very optimistic have fallen dramatically. The significant number of commercial NGSO satellites launched in the late 1990s helped raise these expectations, but today, the predicted continued growth in launches due to NGSO and broadband systems has not materialized. Despite the decline in expectations from the late 1990s, however, the satellite market that the launch industry supports remains robust. Satellite operators maintain generally favorable financial positions, but the number of satellites required to provide services worldwide is growing slowly, with the number of new and replacement satellites launched per year remaining essentially flat. Satellite operators are undergoing consolidation that is rendering them stronger than ever, and putting them in a position to demand better service from their launch service providers. The increase in supply in the marketplace and the corresponding lack of growth in demand has led to a highly competitive marketplace for launch services internationally. ILS is well positioned with products and services to meet customer needs. Key customer buying factors include reliability and schedule assurance, in addition to price. The Atlas and Proton launch vehicles offered by ILS are based on long heritages, stretching across four decades of research, development, and operational experience. Compared to competing vehicles, Atlas and Proton present lower technical risk. ILS has also developed an innovative system for providing schedule assurance by using one vehicle to back up the other. This "mutual backup" service works because of the inherent similarities of the vehicles, and is unmatched by any other arrangement in the industry.

The dynamic nature of risk perceptions after a fatal transit accident.

PubMed

Wernstedt, Kris; Murray-Tuite, Pamela

2015-03-01

In 2009, two trains of Washington, DC's Metrorail system collided, resulting in nine deaths and 50 serious injuries. Based on a multiwave survey of Metrorail users in the months after the crash, this article reports how the accident appears to have (1) changed over time the tradeoffs among safety, speed, frequency of service, cost, and reliability that the transit users stated they were willing to make in the postaccident period and (2) altered transit users' concerns about safety as a function of time and distance from the accident site. We employ conditional logit models to examine tradeoffs among stated preferences for system performance measures after the accident, as well as the influence that respondent characteristics of transit use, location, income, age, and gender have on these preference tradeoffs. As expected, respondents appear averse to longer headways between trains, longer travel durations, higher travel costs, a higher number of late trains, and a higher number of fatalities. The models also show evidence of higher aversion to fatalities from transit system operation among females compared to males. In addition, respondents less experienced with Metrorail travel and those with lower household incomes show higher aversion to fatalities, and this aversion increases as a subject's psychological distance from the accident site decreases. Contrary to expectations shaped by previous studies, aversion to fatalities appears to have increased between the early months after the accident and the end of the survey period, and the expected relationship between age and aversion to fatalities is not statistically significant. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Contribution of health workforce to health outcomes: empirical evidence from Vietnam.

PubMed

Nguyen, Mai Phuong; Mirzoev, Tolib; Le, Thi Minh

2016-11-16

In Vietnam, a lower-middle income country, while the overall skill- and knowledge-based quality of health workforce is improving, health workers are disproportionately distributed across different economic regions. A similar trend appears to be in relation to health outcomes between those regions. It is unclear, however, whether there is any relationship between the distribution of health workers and the achievement of health outcomes in the context of Vietnam. This study examines the statistical relationship between the availability of health workers and health outcomes across the different economic regions in Vietnam. We constructed a panel data of six economic regions covering 8 years (2006-2013) and used principal components analysis regressions to estimate the impact of health workforce on health outcomes. The dependent variables representing the outcomes included life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, and under-five mortality rates. Besides the health workforce as our target explanatory variable, we also controlled for key demographic factors including regional income per capita, poverty rate, illiteracy rate, and population density. The numbers of doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists have been rising in the country over the last decade. However, there are notable differences across the different categories. For example, while the numbers of nurses increased considerably between 2006 and 2013, the number of pharmacists slightly decreased between 2011 and 2013. We found statistically significant evidence of the impact of density of doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists on improvement to life expectancy and reduction of infant and under-five mortality rates. Availability of different categories of health workforce can positively contribute to improvements in health outcomes and ultimately extend the life expectancy of populations. Therefore, increasing investment into more equitable distribution of four main categories of health workforce (doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists) can be an important strategy for improving health outcomes in Vietnam and other similar contexts. Future interventions will also need to consider an integrated approach, building on the link between the health and the development.

Patterns of Lynx Predation at the Interface between Protected Areas and Multi-Use Landscapes in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Belotti, Elisa; Weder, Nicole; Bufka, Luděk; Kaldhusdal, Arne; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Seibold, Heidi; Woelfing, Benno; Heurich, Marco

2015-01-01

In Central Europe, protected areas are too small to ensure survival of populations of large carnivores. In the surrounding areas, these species are often persecuted due to competition with game hunters. Therefore, understanding how predation intensity varies spatio-temporally across areas with different levels of protection is fundamental. We investigated the predation patterns of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) in both protected areas and multi-use landscapes of the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem. Based on 359 roe and red deer killed by 10 GPS-collared lynx, we calculated the species-specific annual kill rates and tested for effects of season and lynx age, sex and reproductive status. Because roe and red deer in the study area concentrate in unprotected lowlands during winter, we modeled spatial distribution of kills separately for summer and winter and calculated-the probability of a deer killed by lynx and-the expected number of kills for areas with different levels of protection. Significantly more roe deer (46.05–74.71/year/individual lynx) were killed than red deer (1.57–9.63/year/individual lynx), more deer were killed in winter than in summer, and lynx family groups had higher annual kill rates than adult male, single adult female and subadult female lynx. In winter the probability of a deer killed and the expected number of kills were higher outside the most protected part of the study area than inside; in summer, this probability did not differ between areas, and the expected number of kills was slightly larger inside than outside the most protected part of the study area. This indicates that the intensity of lynx predation in the unprotected part of the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem increases in winter, thus mitigation of conflicts in these areas should be included as a priority in the lynx conservation strategy. PMID:26379142

Titan's interior from its rotation axis orientation and its Love number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baland, Rose-Marie; Gabriel, Tobie; Axel, Lefèvre

2013-04-01

The tidal Love number k2 of Titan has been recently estimated from Cassini flybys radio-tracking and is consistent with the presence of a global ocean in Titan's interior, located between two ice layers (Iess et al. 2012), in accordance with prediction from interior and evolutionary models for Titan. Previously, the orientation of the rotation axis of Titan has been measured on the basis of radar images from Cassini (Stiles et al. 2008). Titan's obliquity, is about 0.3. The measured orientation is more consistent with the presence of a global internal liquid ocean than with an entirely solid Titan (Baland et al. 2011). The global topography data of Titan seem to indicate some departure from the hydrostatic shape expected for a synchronous satellite under the influence of its rotation and the static tides raised by the central planet (Zebker et al. 2009). This may be explained by a differential tidal heating in the ice shell which flattens the poles (Nimmo and Bills 2010). A surface more flattened than expected implies compensation in depth to explain the measured gravity coefficients C20 and C22 of Iess et al. (2012). Here, all layers are assumed to have a tri-axial ellipsoid shape, but with polar and equatorial flattenings that differ from the hydrostatic expected ones. We assess the influence of this non-hydrostatic shape on the conclusions of Baland et al. (2011), which developped a Cassini state model for the orientation of the rotation axis of a synchronous satellite having an internal liquid layer. We assess the possibility to constrain Titan's interior (and particularly the structure of the water/ice layer) from both the rotation axis orientation and the Love number. We consider a range of internal structure models consistent with the mean density and the mean radius of Titan, and made of a shell, an ocean, a mantle, and a core, from the surface to the center, with various possible compositions (e.g. ammonia mixed with water for the ocean). The internal structure models consistent with the measured orientation of the rotation axis and Love number still have to be examined with respect to other constrains, such as the shell thickness estimation derived from electric-field measurement of the Huyges probe (Béghin et al. 2012) and the expected temperature profile of the water/ice layer. For instance, a thin shell would imply a rather thick ocean, based on water (or water/ammonia) phase diagram.

Automated Analysis of siRNA Screens of Virus Infected Cells Based on Immunofluorescence Microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matula, Petr; Kumar, Anil; Wörz, Ilka; Harder, Nathalie; Erfle, Holger; Bartenschlager, Ralf; Eils, Roland; Rohr, Karl

We present an image analysis approach as part of a high-throughput microscopy screening system based on cell arrays for the identification of genes involved in Hepatitis C and Dengue virus replication. Our approach comprises: cell nucleus segmentation, quantification of virus replication level in cells, localization of regions with transfected cells, cell classification by infection status, and quality assessment of an experiment. The approach is fully automatic and has been successfully applied to a large number of cell array images from screening experiments. The experimental results show a good agreement with the expected behavior of positive as well as negative controls and encourage the application to screens from further high-throughput experiments.

Implementing the Mother-Baby Model of Nursing Care Using Models and Quality Improvement Tools.

PubMed

Brockman, Vicki

As family-centered care has become the expected standard, many facilities follow the mother-baby model, in which care is provided to both a woman and her newborn in the same room by the same nurse. My facility employed a traditional model of nursing care, which was not evidence-based or financially sustainable. After implementing the mother-baby model, we experienced an increase in exclusive breastfeeding rates at hospital discharge, increased patient satisfaction, improved staff productivity and decreased salary costs, all while the number of births increased. Our change was successful because it was guided by the use of quality improvement tools, change theory and evidence-based practice models. © 2015 AWHONN.

The relationship between happiness and health: evidence from Italy.

PubMed

Sabatini, Fabio

2014-08-01

We test the relationship between happiness and self-rated health in Italy. The analysis relies on a unique dataset collected through the administration of a questionnaire to a representative sample (n = 817) of the population of the Italian Province of Trento in March 2011. Based on probit regressions and instrumental variables estimates, we find that happiness is strongly correlated with perceived good health, after controlling for a number of relevant socio-economic phenomena. Health inequalities based on income, work status and education are relatively contained with respect to the rest of Italy. As expected, this scales down the role of social relationships. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 3.

PubMed

Sibley, A; Han, K H; Abourached, A; Lesmana, L A; Makara, M; Jafri, W; Salupere, R; Assiri, A M; Goldis, A; Abaalkhail, F; Abbas, Z; Abdou, A; Al Braiki, F; Al Hosani, F; Al Jaberi, K; Al Khatry, M; Al Mulla, M A; Al Quraishi, H; Al Rifai, A; Al Serkal, Y; Alam, A; Alavian, S M; Alashgar, H I; Alawadhi, S; Al-Dabal, L; Aldins, P; Alfaleh, F Z; Alghamdi, A S; Al-Hakeem, R; Aljumah, A A; Almessabi, A; Alqutub, A N; Alswat, K A; Altraif, I; Alzaabi, M; Andrea, N; Babatin, M A; Baqir, A; Barakat, M T; Bergmann, O M; Bizri, A R; Blach, S; Chaudhry, A; Choi, M S; Diab, T; Djauzi, S; El Hassan, E S; El Khoury, S; Estes, C; Fakhry, S; Farooqi, J I; Fridjonsdottir, H; Gani, R A; Ghafoor Khan, A; Gheorghe, L; Gottfredsson, M; Gregorcic, S; Gunter, J; Hajarizadeh, B; Hamid, S; Hasan, I; Hashim, A; Horvath, G; Hunyady, B; Husni, R; Jeruma, A; Jonasson, J G; Karlsdottir, B; Kim, D Y; Kim, Y S; Koutoubi, Z; Liakina, V; Lim, Y S; Löve, A; Maimets, M; Malekzadeh, R; Matičič, M; Memon, M S; Merat, S; Mokhbat, J E; Mourad, F H; Muljono, D H; Nawaz, A; Nugrahini, N; Olafsson, S; Priohutomo, S; Qureshi, H; Rassam, P; Razavi, H; Razavi-Shearer, D; Razavi-Shearer, K; Rozentale, B; Sadik, M; Saeed, K; Salamat, A; Sanai, F M; Sanityoso Sulaiman, A; Sayegh, R A; Sharara, A I; Siddiq, M; Siddiqui, A M; Sigmundsdottir, G; Sigurdardottir, B; Speiciene, D; Sulaiman, A; Sultan, M A; Taha, M; Tanaka, J; Tarifi, H; Tayyab, G; Tolmane, I; Ud Din, M; Umar, M; Valantinas, J; Videčnik-Zorman, J; Yaghi, C; Yunihastuti, E; Yusuf, M A; Zuberi, B F; Schmelzer, J D

2015-12-01

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of Virginia's College and Career Ready Mathematics Performance Expectations with the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Virginia Department of Education, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of Virginia's mathematics performance expectations with the common core state standards for mathematics. The comparison focuses on number and quantity, algebra, functions, geometry, and statistics and probability. (Contains 1 footnote.)

Predictive data modeling of human type II diabetes related statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Kristina L.; Jaenisch, Holger M.; Handley, James W.; Albritton, Nathaniel G.

2009-04-01

During the course of routine Type II treatment of one of the authors, it was decided to derive predictive analytical Data Models of the daily sampled vital statistics: namely weight, blood pressure, and blood sugar, to determine if the covariance among the observed variables could yield a descriptive equation based model, or better still, a predictive analytical model that could forecast the expected future trend of the variables and possibly eliminate the number of finger stickings required to montior blood sugar levels. The personal history and analysis with resulting models are presented.

A binomial stochastic kinetic approach to the Michaelis-Menten mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lente, Gábor

2013-05-01

This Letter presents a new method that gives an analytical approximation of the exact solution of the stochastic Michaelis-Menten mechanism without computationally demanding matrix operations. The method is based on solving the deterministic rate equations and then using the results as guiding variables of calculating probability values using binomial distributions. This principle can be generalized to a number of different kinetic schemes and is expected to be very useful in the evaluation of measurements focusing on the catalytic activity of one or a few individual enzyme molecules.

Cross-border healthcare in Spain and the implementation of the Directive 2011/24/EU on the Application of Patient's Rights in Cross-border Healthcare.

PubMed

Requejo, M Teresa

2014-03-01

This work describes and assesses the implementation of the Cross-border Healthcare Directive in Spain. Although implementation has not yet taken place, the Government has already adopted a draft implementing regulation, on which this article is based. In addition, this article deals with a number of other rules that have been adopted in Spain, which are not strictly aimed at the implementation of the Directive but which are expected to facilitate its implementation and to help cement its effectiveness.

Preliminary Note on a Correlation of a Boundary-Layer Transition Results on Highly Cooled Blunt Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wisniewski, Richard J.

1957-01-01

Transition data on highly cooled blunt bodies are correlated in terms of the ratio of wall to local-stream enthalpy, Reynolds number based on displacement thickness, and location of transition. The proposed correlation, although not sensitive enough to predict the exact location of transition does predict the enthalpy ratio below which very early transition on blunt bodies is expected. The correlation is not altered by moderate amounts of surface roughness; however, the location of transition may well be affected by roughness.

Sub-arcsecond observations of the solar X-ray corona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, L.; Nystrom, G.; Herant, M.; Kalata, K.; Lovas, I.

1990-01-01

Results from a high-resolution multi-layer-coated X-ray imaging telescope, part of the Normal Incidence X-ray Telescope sounding rocket payload are presented. Images of the peak of a two-ribbon flare showed detailed structure within each ribbon, as well as the expected bright arches of emission connecting the ribbons. The number of X-ray bright points is small, consistent with predictions based on the previous solar cycle. Topology of the magnetic structure is complex and highly tangled, implying that the magnetic complexity of the photosphere is paralleled in the corona.

CT in your clinical practice.

PubMed

Kohs, Gregory J; Legunn, Joel

2004-09-01

This report presents the results of a survey of 500 U.S.-based radiologists on critical issues associated with the use of CT. The survey represents a collaboration between the American Roentgen Ray Society (ARRS) and Philips Medical Systems. An outside firm, ICR/International Communications Research, conducted the survey. Survey questions were designed to elicit opinions about the past, present and future of CT, especially MDCT imaging, in various practice environments. Most radiologists (69%) indicated that CT has had a major influence on their specialty, more than any other medical advance, and that they expected this influence to increase. The idea that MDCT radically improves diagnostic quality was not universal, and opinions were mixed about the expansion of CT into new applications such as cardiac imaging. A number of concerns were attributed to the advent of MDCT and expansion in the number of slices-a phenomenon commonly referred to as a "slice war." These concerns revolved around managing the data explosion, excessive patient irradiation, bottlenecks in patient throughput, the ability of CT staffs to keep up with the rapidly evolving technology and the costs of keeping up with these changes. Nevertheless, most radiologists (78%) who were surveyed indicated that they used MDCT and that MDCT has had a positive effect on their practices in the past five years (90%); most (77%) expected that the number of slices would increase by two to 10 times the current level. Fifty-six percent said that they would be adding one to two scanners to their practices in the next five years.

Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Italy from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model.

PubMed

Piscitelli, P; Brandi, M; Cawston, H; Gauthier, A; Kanis, J A; Compston, J; Borgström, F; Cooper, C; McCloskey, E

2014-11-01

The article describes the adaptation of a model to estimate the burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in women aged 50 years and over in Italy between 2010 and 2020. For this purpose, a validated postmenopausal osteoporosis disease model developed for Sweden was adapted to Italy. For each year of the study, the 'incident cohort' (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using 1-year cycles until 2020. Health states were based on the number of fractures and deaths. Fracture by site (hip, clinical vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) was tracked for each health state. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risk of death and subsequent fractures. Model inputs specific to Italy included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020, incidence of hip fracture and BMD by age in the general population (mean and standard deviation). The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women would increase from 3.3 million to 3.7 million between 2010 and 2020 (+14.3%). Assuming unchanged incidence rates by age group over time, the model predicted the overall number of osteoporotic fractures to increase from 285.0 to 335.8 thousand fractures between 2010 and 2020 (+17.8%). The estimated expected increases in hip, vertebral and non-hip non-vertebral fractures were 22.3, 17.2 and 16.3%, respectively. Due to demographic changes, the burden of fractures is expected to increase markedly by 2020.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

PubMed

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

Virtual manufacturing in reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papstel, Jyri; Saks, Alo

2000-10-01

SMEs play an important role in manufacturing industry. But from time to time there is a shortage in resources to complete the particular order in time. Number of systems is introduced to produce digital information in order to support product and process development activities. Main problem is lack of opportunity for direct data transition within design system modules when needed temporary extension of design capacity (virtuality) or to implement integrated concurrent product development principles. The planning experience in the field is weakly used as well. The concept of virtual manufacturing is a supporting idea to solve this problem. At the same time a number of practical problems should be solved like information conformity, data transfer, unified technological concepts acceptation etc. In the present paper the proposed ways to solve the practical problems of virtual manufacturing are described. General objective is to introduce the knowledge-based CAPP system as missing module for Virtual Manufacturing in the selected product domain. Surface-centered planning concept based on STEP- based modeling principles, and knowledge-based process planning methodology will be used to gain the objectives. As a result the planning module supplied by design data with direct access, and supporting advising environment is expected. Mould producing SME would be as test basis.

Methodology for developing and evaluating the PROMIS smoking item banks.

PubMed

Hansen, Mark; Cai, Li; Stucky, Brian D; Tucker, Joan S; Shadel, William G; Edelen, Maria Orlando

2014-09-01

This article describes the procedures used in the PROMIS Smoking Initiative for the development and evaluation of item banks, short forms (SFs), and computerized adaptive tests (CATs) for the assessment of 6 constructs related to cigarette smoking: nicotine dependence, coping expectancies, emotional and sensory expectancies, health expectancies, psychosocial expectancies, and social motivations for smoking. Analyses were conducted using response data from a large national sample of smokers. Items related to each construct were subjected to extensive item factor analyses and evaluation of differential item functioning (DIF). Final item banks were calibrated, and SF assessments were developed for each construct. The performance of the SFs and the potential use of the item banks for CAT administration were examined through simulation study. Item selection based on dimensionality assessment and DIF analyses produced item banks that were essentially unidimensional in structure and free of bias. Simulation studies demonstrated that the constructs could be accurately measured with a relatively small number of carefully selected items, either through fixed SFs or CAT-based assessment. Illustrative results are presented, and subsequent articles provide detailed discussion of each item bank in turn. The development of the PROMIS smoking item banks provides researchers with new tools for measuring smoking-related constructs. The use of the calibrated item banks and suggested SF assessments will enhance the quality of score estimates, thus advancing smoking research. Moreover, the methods used in the current study, including innovative approaches to item selection and SF construction, may have general relevance to item bank development and evaluation. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A database management capability for Ada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, Arvola; Danberg, SY; Fox, Stephen; Landers, Terry; Nori, Anil; Smith, John M.

1986-01-01

The data requirements of mission critical defense systems have been increasing dramatically. Command and control, intelligence, logistics, and even weapons systems are being required to integrate, process, and share ever increasing volumes of information. To meet this need, systems are now being specified that incorporate data base management subsystems for handling storage and retrieval of information. It is expected that a large number of the next generation of mission critical systems will contain embedded data base management systems. Since the use of Ada has been mandated for most of these systems, it is important to address the issues of providing data base management capabilities that can be closely coupled with Ada. A comprehensive distributed data base management project has been investigated. The key deliverables of this project are three closely related prototype systems implemented in Ada. These three systems are discussed.

Financial Symmetry and Moods in the Market

PubMed Central

Savona, Roberto; Soumare, Maxence; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

2015-01-01

This paper studies how certain speculative transitions in financial markets can be ascribed to a symmetry break that happens in the collective decision making. Investors are assumed to be bounded rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends. Investment strategies are dynamically changed based on realized returns within a game theoretical scheme with Nash equilibria. In such a setting, markets behave as complex systems whose payoff reflect an intrinsic financial symmetry that guarantees equilibrium in price dynamics (fundamentalist state) until the symmetry is broken leading to bubble or anti-bubble scenarios (speculative state). We model such two-phase transition in a micro-to-macro scheme through a Ginzburg-Landau-based power expansion leading to a market temperature parameter which modulates the state transitions in the market. Via simulations we prove that transitions in the market price dynamics can be phenomenologically explained by the number of traders, the number of strategies and amount of information used by agents, all included in our market temperature parameter. PMID:25856392

Bayesian Revision of Residual Detection Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2013-01-01

This paper addresses some issues with quality assessment and quality assurance in response surface modeling experiments executed in wind tunnels. The role of data volume on quality assurance for response surface models is reviewed. Specific wind tunnel response surface modeling experiments are considered for which apparent discrepancies exist between fit quality expectations based on implemented quality assurance tactics, and the actual fit quality achieved in those experiments. These discrepancies are resolved by using Bayesian inference to account for certain imperfections in the assessment methodology. Estimates of the fraction of out-of-tolerance model predictions based on traditional frequentist methods are revised to account for uncertainty in the residual assessment process. The number of sites in the design space for which residuals are out of tolerance is seen to exceed the number of sites where the model actually fails to fit the data. A method is presented to estimate how much of the design space in inadequately modeled by low-order polynomial approximations to the true but unknown underlying response function.

Financial symmetry and moods in the market.

PubMed

Savona, Roberto; Soumare, Maxence; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

2015-01-01

This paper studies how certain speculative transitions in financial markets can be ascribed to a symmetry break that happens in the collective decision making. Investors are assumed to be bounded rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends. Investment strategies are dynamically changed based on realized returns within a game theoretical scheme with Nash equilibria. In such a setting, markets behave as complex systems whose payoff reflect an intrinsic financial symmetry that guarantees equilibrium in price dynamics (fundamentalist state) until the symmetry is broken leading to bubble or anti-bubble scenarios (speculative state). We model such two-phase transition in a micro-to-macro scheme through a Ginzburg-Landau-based power expansion leading to a market temperature parameter which modulates the state transitions in the market. Via simulations we prove that transitions in the market price dynamics can be phenomenologically explained by the number of traders, the number of strategies and amount of information used by agents, all included in our market temperature parameter.

Satellite Catalog Renumbering: What Does That Mean and Should I Be Worried?

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-02

Line Element Set ". Because of growth of the number of objects in the satellite catalog, it is expected that the fixed format will be insufficient to...the "Two Line Element Set ". Because of growth of the number of objects in the satellite catalog, it is expected that the fixed format will be...on what is called a "Two Line Element Set " (TLE). Using this data in the proper formulas allows us to predict when the satellite will be overhead and

Veterinary teaching hospitals: current challenges and pathways for the future.

PubMed

Hubbell, John A E

2008-01-01

University-based veterinary teaching hospitals must change to maintain their viability. A number of factors both internal and external to universities and the veterinary profession have contributed to the need for change. A task force formed by the Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges and the American Association of Veterinary Clinicians was convened to identify the issues and propose individual and collective strategies for the future. Primary issues include a shortage of faculty and staff, the nature of the case load, the need for fiscal management strategies, and the need to manage stakeholder expectations. The majority of the proposed strategies for the future will be managed individually by the colleges. Proposed collective strategies center on increasing the number of specialists and improving recruitment and retention of faculty and staff.

Counting the ions surrounding nucleic acids

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Nucleic acids are strongly negatively charged, and thus electrostatic interactions—screened by ions in solution—play an important role in governing their ability to fold and participate in biomolecular interactions. The negative charge creates a region, known as the ion atmosphere, in which cation and anion concentrations are perturbed from their bulk values. Ion counting experiments quantify the ion atmosphere by measuring the preferential ion interaction coefficient: the net total number of excess ions above, or below, the number expected due to the bulk concentration. The results of such studies provide important constraints on theories, which typically predict the full three-dimensional distribution of the screening cloud. This article reviews the state of nucleic acid ion counting measurements and critically analyzes their ability to test both analytical and simulation-based models. PMID:28034959

Gas diffusion in and out of super-hydrophobic surface in transitional and turbulent boundary layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, Hangjian; Fu, Matthew; Hultmark, Marcus; Katz, Joseph

2017-11-01

The rate of gas diffusion in and out of a super-hydrophobic surface (SHS) located in boundary layers is investigated at varying Reynolds numbers and ambient pressures. The hierarchical SHS consists of nano-textured, 100 μm wide spanwise grooves. The boundary layers over the SHS under the Cassie-Baxter and Wenzel states as well as a smooth wall at same conditions are characterized by particle image velocimetry. The Reynolds number based on momentum thickness of the smooth wall, ReΘ0, ranges from 518 to 2088, covering transitional and turbulent boundary layer regimes. The mass diffusion rate is estimated by using microscopy to measure the time-evolution of plastron shape and volume. The data is used for calculating the Sherwood number based on smooth wall momentum thickness, ShΘ0. As expected, the diffusion rate increases linearly with the under- or super-saturation level, i.e., ShΘ0 is independent of ambient pressure. For the turbulent boundary layers, the data collapses onto ShΘ0 = 0.47ReΘ00.77 . For the transitional boundary layer, ShΘ0 is lower than the turbulent power law. When ShΘ0 is plotted against the friction Reynolds number (Reτ0) , both the transitional and turbulent boundary layer data collapse onto a single power law, ShΘ0 = 0.34Reτ00.913 . Results scaled based on Wenzel state momentum thickness show very similar trends. Sponsored by ONR.

Reserve growth of oil and gas fields—Investigations and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, Troy A.

2013-01-01

The reserve growth of fields has been a topic for ongoing discussion for over half a century and will continue to be studied well into the future. This is due to the expected size of the volumetric contribution of reserve growth to the future supply of oil and natural gas. Understanding past methods of estimating future volumes based on the data assembly methods that have been used can lead to a better understanding of their applicability. The statistical nature of past methods and the (1) possible high level of dependency on a limited number of fields, (2) assumption of an age-based correlation with effective reserve growth, and (3) assumption of long-lived and more common than not reserve growth, may be improved by employing a more geologically based approach.

Fatigue loading history reconstruction based on the rain-flow technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khosrovaneh, A. K.; Dowling, N. E.

1989-01-01

Methods are considered for reducing a non-random fatigue loading history to a concise description and then for reconstructing a time history similar to the original. In particular, three methods of reconstruction based on a rain-flow cycle counting matrix are presented. A rain-flow matrix consists of the numbers of cycles at various peak and valley combinations. Two methods are based on a two dimensional rain-flow matrix, and the third on a three dimensional rain-flow matrix. Histories reconstructed by any of these methods produce a rain-flow matrix identical to that of the original history, and as a result the resulting time history is expected to produce a fatigue life similar to that for the original. The procedures described allow lengthy loading histories to be stored in compact form.

Following basal stem rot in young oil palm plantings.

PubMed

Panchal, G; Bridge, P D

2005-01-01

The PCR primer GanET has previously been shown to be suitable for the specific amplification of DNA from Ganoderma boninense. A DNA extraction and PCR method has been developed that allows for the amplification of the G. boninense DNA from environmental samples of oil palm tissue. The GanET primer reaction was used in conjunction with a palm-sampling programme to investigate the possible infection of young palms through cut frond base surfaces. Ganoderma DNA was detected in frond base material at a greater frequency than would be expected by comparison with current infection levels. Comparisons are made between the height of the frond base infected, the number of frond bases infected, and subsequent development of basal stem rot. The preliminary results suggest that the development of basal stem rot may be more likely to occur when young lower frond bases are infected.

The Relationships of Expectancies With E-cigarette Use Among Hospitalized Smokers: A Prospective Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Hendricks, Peter S; Thorne, Christopher B; Lappan, Sara N; Sweat, Noah W; Cheong, JeeWon; Ramachandran, Rekha; Kohler, Connie L; Bailey, William C; Harrington, Kathleen F

2018-01-05

Expectancies demonstrate cross-sectional associations with e-cigarette use, but the prospective relationships between expectancies and e-cigarette use are unknown. This study examined the longitudinal associations of expectancies with e-cigarette use among hospitalized tobacco cigarette smokers. E-cigarette expectancies (e-cigarette-specific Brief Smoking Consequences Questionnaire-Adult [BSCQ-A]), tobacco cigarette expectancies (tobacco-specific BSCQ-A), and number of days used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days were assessed at baseline hospitalization, 6-months post-hospitalization, and 12-months post-hospitalization among 978 hospitalized tobacco cigarette smokers. Expectancy difference scores (e-cigarette-specific expectancies minus tobacco-specific expectancies) were computed for each of the 10 BSCQ-A scales. Cross-lagged panel models tested the relationships between expectancy difference scores and number of days used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days for each of the 10 BSCQ-A scales. Though some models revealed partial associations between expectancies and e-cigarette use, only one yielded results consistent with hypotheses. Greater e-cigarette use at baseline predicted greater expectancies that e-cigarettes taste pleasant as compared to tobacco cigarettes at 6 months, which then predicted greater e-cigarette use at 12 months. To a lesser degree greater expectancies that e-cigarettes taste pleasant as compared to tobacco cigarettes at baseline predicted greater e-cigarette use at 6 months, which then predicted greater expectancies that e-cigarettes taste pleasant as compared to tobacco cigarettes at 12 months. Expectancies that e-cigarettes provide similar or more pleasant taste sensations as compared to tobacco cigarettes may be both a cause and consequence of e-cigarette use. Focusing on the taste experience may prove most effective in modifying e-cigarette use behavior. The current study offers the first longitudinal examination of expectancies and e-cigarette use. Results suggest expectancies that e-cigarettes provide similar or more pleasant taste sensations relative to tobacco cigarettes are both a cause and consequence of e-cigarette use. Efforts that focus on the e-cigarette taste experience may prove most effective in modifying e-cigarette use behavior. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Biology Textbook Graphics and Their Impact on Expectations of Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiley, Jennifer; Sarmento, David; Griffin, Thomas D.; Hinze, Scott R.

2017-01-01

Graphics presented alongside expository science texts can have a number of positive effects for instruction, including facilitating engagement, arousing interest, and improving understanding. However, because students harbor expectations about which contexts are likely to support better understanding, the mere presence of graphics also has the…

OLDER ADULTS: AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSCEPTIBLE POPULATION

EPA Science Inventory

The baby boom generation is quickly becoming the geriatric generation. The over-65 age bracket hit 13% of Americans in 1997, and is expected to reach 20% by 2030 accounting for 73 million Americans. World-wide the total number of older people (>60years) is expected to double from...

Spending our soil resources

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A third of the world's population suffers from food insecurity. With an expected 2 billion population increase in the next few decades, that number is expected to rise significantly, leading to more people that are insecure and starving unless our soils can produce more food. Added to the problem ar...

Far-from-equilibrium bidirectional transport system with constrained entrances competing for pool of limited resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Atul Kumar; Sharma, Natasha; Gupta, Arvind Kumar

2018-02-01

Motivated by the wide occurrence of limited resources in many real-life systems, we investigate two-lane totally asymmetric simple exclusion process with constrained entrances under finite supply of particles. We analyze the system within the framework of mean-field theory and examine various complex phenomena, including phase separation, phase transition, and symmetry breaking. Based on the theoretical analysis, we analytically derive the phase boundaries for various symmetric as well as asymmetric phases. It has been observed that the symmetry-breaking phenomenon initiates even for very small number of particles in the system. The phases with broken symmetry originates as shock-low density phase under limited resources, which is in contrast to the scenario with infinite number of particles. As expected, the symmetry breaking continues to persist even for higher values of system particles. Seven stationary phases are observed, with three of them exhibiting symmetry-breaking phenomena. The critical values of a total number of system particles, beyond which various symmetrical and asymmetrical phases appear and disappear are identified. Theoretical outcomes are supported by extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the size-scaling effect and symmetry-breaking phenomenon on the simulation results have also been examined based on particle density histograms.

School of pharmacy-based medication therapy management program: development and initial experience.

PubMed

Lam, Annie; Odegard, Peggy Soule; Gardner, Jacqueline

2012-01-01

To describe a school of pharmacy-community pharmacy collaborative model for medication therapy management (MTM) service and training. University of Washington (UW) School of Pharmacy (Seattle), from July to December 2008. MTM services and training. A campus-based MTM pharmacy was established for teaching, practice, and collaboration with community pharmacies to provide comprehensive medication reviews (CMRs) and MTM training. Number of collaborating pharmacies, number of patients contacted, number of CMRs conducted, and estimated cost avoidance (ECA). UW Pharmacy Cares was licensed as a Class A pharmacy (nondispensing) and signed "business associate" agreements with six community pharmacies. During July to December 2008, 10 faculty pharmacists completed training and 5 provided CMR services to 17 patients (5 telephonic and 12 face-to-face interviews). A total of 67 claims (17 CMRs and 50 CMR-generated claims) were submitted for reimbursement of $1,642 ($96.58/CMR case). Total ECA was $54,250, averaging $3,191.19 per patient. Seven student pharmacists gained CMR interview training. Interest in collaboration by community pharmacies was lower than expected; however, the campus-community practice model addressed unmet patient care needs, reduced outstanding MTM CMR case loads, increased ECA, and facilitated faculty development and training of student pharmacists.

Formulation and Optimization of Robust Sensor Placement Problems for Drinking Water Contamination Warning Systems

DOE PAGES

Watson, Jean-Paul; Murray, Regan; Hart, William E.

2009-11-13

We report that the sensor placement problem in contamination warning system design for municipal water distribution networks involves maximizing the protection level afforded by limited numbers of sensors, typically quantified as the expected impact of a contamination event; the issue of how to mitigate against high-consequence events is either handled implicitly or ignored entirely. Consequently, expected-case sensor placements run the risk of failing to protect against high-consequence 9/11-style attacks. In contrast, robust sensor placements address this concern by focusing strictly on high-consequence events and placing sensors to minimize the impact of these events. We introduce several robust variations of themore » sensor placement problem, distinguished by how they quantify the potential damage due to high-consequence events. We explore the nature of robust versus expected-case sensor placements on three real-world large-scale distribution networks. We find that robust sensor placements can yield large reductions in the number and magnitude of high-consequence events, with only modest increases in expected impact. Finally, the ability to trade-off between robust and expected-case impacts is a key unexplored dimension in contamination warning system design.« less

Effects of meal variety on expected satiation: Evidence for a ‘perceived volume’ heuristic☆

PubMed Central

Keenan, Gregory S.; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M.; Ferriday, Danielle

2015-01-01

Meal variety has been shown to increase energy intake in humans by an average of 29%. Historically, research exploring the mechanism underlying this effect has focused on physiological and psychological processes that terminate a meal (e.g., sensory-specific satiety). We sought to explore whether meal variety stimulates intake by influencing pre-meal planning. We know that individuals use prior experience with a food to estimate the extent to which it will deliver fullness. These ‘expected satiation’ judgments may be straightforward when only one meal component needs to be considered, but it remains unclear how prospective satiation is estimated when a meal comprises multiple items. We hypothesised that people simplify the task by using a heuristic, or ‘cognitive shortcut.’ Specifically, as within-meal variety increases, expected satiation tends to be based on the perceived volume of food(s) rather than on prior experience. In each trial, participants (N = 68) were shown a plate of food with six buffet food items. Across trials the number of different foods varied in the range one to six. In separate tasks, the participants provided an estimate of their combined expected satiation and volume. When meal variety was high, judgments of perceived volume and expected satiation ‘converged.’ This is consistent with a common underlying response strategy. By contrast, the low variety meals produced dissociable responses, suggesting that judgments of expected satiation were not governed solely by perceived volume. This evidence for a ‘volume heuristic’ was especially clear in people who were less familiar with the meal items. Together, these results are important because they expose a novel process by which meal variety might increase food intake in humans. PMID:25599925

Age of Migration Differentials in Life Expectancy with Cognitive Impairment: 20-Year Findings From the Hispanic-EPESE.

PubMed

Garcia, Marc A; Saenz, Joseph L; Downer, Brian; Chiu, Chi-Tsun; Rote, Sunshine; Wong, Rebeca

2017-05-09

To examine differences in life expectancy with cognitive impairment among older Mexican adults according to nativity (U.S.-born/foreign-born) and among immigrants, age of migration to the United States. This study employs 20 years of data from the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly to estimate the proportion of life spent cognitively healthy and cognitively impaired prior to death among older Mexican adults residing in the southwestern United States. We combine age-specific mortality rates with age-specific prevalence of cognitive impairment, defined as a Mini-Mental Status Exam score of less than 21 points to calculate Sullivan-based life table models with and without cognitive impairment in later life. Foreign-born Mexican immigrants have longer total life expectancy and comparable cognitive healthy life expectancy regardless of gender compared to U.S.-born Mexican-Americans. However, the foreign-born spend a greater number of years after age 65 with cognitive impairment relative to their U.S.-born counterparts. Furthermore, we document an advantage in life expectancy with cognitive impairment and proportion of years after age 65 cognitively healthy among mid-life immigrant men and women relative to early- and late-life migrants. The relationship between nativity, age of migration, and life expectancy with cognitive impairment means that the foreign-born are in more need of support and time-intensive care in late life. This issue merits special attention to develop appropriate and targeted screening efforts that reduce cognitive decline for diverse subgroups of older Mexican-origin adults as they age. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Transition into and out of daylight saving time and spontaneous delivery: a population-based study.

PubMed

László, Krisztina D; Cnattingius, Sven; Janszky, Imre

2016-09-14

To investigate whether the circadian rhythm disruption following the transition into and out of daylight saving time (DST) is associated with an increased risk of spontaneous delivery. We compared the number of spontaneous deliveries in the Swedish Medical Birth Register during the week after the change to and the week after the change from DST (exposure periods) with the average number of spontaneous deliveries in the control period, defined as the week before and the week after each exposure period. Sweden, 1993-2006. The primary outcomes were the weekly and the daily number of spontaneous deliveries in the exposure and the control periods. In secondary analyses we also compared the mean length of pregnancy of the women with spontaneous deliveries in the exposure and control periods. The number of deliveries during the week after the transition into or out of DST was similar to that in the comparison period (18 519 observed vs 18 434 expected in case of the spring shift and 19 073 observed vs 19 122 expected in case of the autumn shift); the corresponding incidence ratio and 95% CIs were 1.005 (0.990 to 1.019) and 0.997 (0.983 to 1.012), respectively. There were no differences in the length of gestation of the deliveries in the exposure and the control periods. Our results do not support the hypothesis that a minor circadian rhythm disruption is associated with an increased short-term risk of spontaneous delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

CLASH: A census of magnified star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 6-8

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradley, L. D.; Coe, D.; Postman, M.

2014-09-01

We utilize 16 band Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations of 18 lensing clusters obtained as part of the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH) Multi-Cycle Treasury program to search for z ∼ 6-8 galaxies. We report the discovery of 204, 45, and 13 Lyman-break galaxy candidates at z ∼ 6, z ∼ 7, and z ∼ 8, respectively, identified from purely photometric redshift selections. This large sample, representing nearly an order of magnitude increase in the number of magnified star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 6-8 presented to date, is unique in that we have observations in four WFC3/UVISmore » UV, seven ACS/WFC optical, and all five WFC3/IR broadband filters, which enable very accurate photometric redshift selections. We construct detailed lensing models for 17 of the 18 clusters to estimate object magnifications and to identify two new multiply lensed z ≳ 6 candidates. The median magnifications over the 17 clusters are 4, 4, and 5 for the z ∼ 6, z ∼ 7, and z ∼ 8 samples, respectively, over an average area of 4.5 arcmin{sup 2} per cluster. We compare our observed number counts with expectations based on convolving 'blank' field UV luminosity functions through our cluster lens models and find rough agreement down to ∼27 mag, where we begin to suffer significant incompleteness. In all three redshift bins, we find a higher number density at brighter observed magnitudes than the field predictions, empirically demonstrating for the first time the enhanced efficiency of lensing clusters over field surveys. Our number counts also are in general agreement with the lensed expectations from the cluster models, especially at z ∼ 6, where we have the best statistics.« less

Tidal Love numbers of neutron and self-bound quark stars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Postnikov, Sergey; Prakash, Madappa; Lattimer, James M.

Gravitational waves from the final stages of inspiraling binary neutron stars are expected to be one of the most important sources for ground-based gravitational wave detectors. The masses of the components are determinable from the orbital and chirp frequencies during the early part of the evolution, and large finite-size (tidal) effects are measurable toward the end of inspiral, but the gravitational wave signal is expected to be very complex at this time. Tidal effects during the early part of the evolution will form a very small correction, but during this phase the signal is relatively clean. The accumulated phase shiftmore » due to tidal corrections is characterized by a single quantity related to a star's tidal Love number. The Love number is sensitive, in particular, to the compactness parameter M/R and the star's internal structure, and its determination could provide an important constraint to the neutron star radius. We show that Love numbers of self-bound strange quark matter stars are qualitatively different from those of normal neutron stars. Observations of the tidal signature from coalescing compact binaries could therefore provide an important, and possibly unique, way to distinguish self-bound strange quark stars from normal neutron stars. Tidal signatures from self-bound strange quark stars with masses smaller than 1M{sub {center_dot}}are substantially smaller than those of normal stars owing to their smaller radii. Thus tidal signatures of stars less massive than 1M{sub {center_dot}}are probably not detectable with Advanced LIGO. For stars with masses in the range 1-2M{sub {center_dot},} the anticipated efficiency of the proposed Einstein telescope would be required for the detection of tidal signatures.« less

Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

PubMed

Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

2016-04-01

To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Occurrence of invertebrates at 38 stream sites in the Mississippi Embayment study unit, 1996-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caskey, Brian J.; Justus, B.G.; Zappia, Humbert

2002-01-01

A total of 88 invertebrate species and 178 genera representing 59 families, 8 orders, 6 classes, and 3 phyla was identified at 38 stream sites in the Mississippi Embayment Study Unit from 1996 through 1999 as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Sites were selected based on land use within the drainage basins and the availability of long-term streamflow data. Invertebrates were sampled as part of an overall sampling design to provide information related to the status and trends in water quality in the Mississippi Embayment Study Unit, which includes parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. Invertebrate sampling and processing was conducted using nationally standardized techniques developed for the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These techniques included both a semi-quantitative method, which targeted habitats where invertebrate diversity is expected to be highest, and a qualitative multihabitat method, which samples all available habitat types possible within a sampling reach. All invertebrate samples were shipped to the USGS National Water-Quality Laboratory (NWQL) where they were processed. Of the 365 taxa identified, 156 were identified with the semi-quantitative method that involved sampling a known quantity of what was expected to be the richest habitat, woody debris. The qualitative method, which involved sampling all available habitats, identified 345 taxa The number of organisms identified in the semi-quantitative samples ranged from 74 to 3,295, whereas the number of taxa identified ranged from 9 to 54. The number of organisms identified in the qualitative samples ranged from 42 to 29,634, whereas the number of taxa ranged from 18 to 81. From all the organisms identified, chironomid taxa were the most frequently identified, and plecopteran taxa were among the least frequently identified.

Students' Expectations of the Learning Process in Virtual Reality and Simulation-Based Learning Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keskitalo, Tuulikki

2012-01-01

Expectations for simulations in healthcare education are high; however, little is known about healthcare students' expectations of the learning process in virtual reality (VR) and simulation-based learning environments (SBLEs). This research aims to describe first-year healthcare students' (N=97) expectations regarding teaching, studying, and…

A concordance-based study to assess doctors’ and nurses’ mental models in Internal Medicine

PubMed Central

Chan, K. C. Gary; Muller-Juge, Virginie; Cullati, Stéphane; Hudelson, Patricia; Maître, Fabienne; Vu, Nu V.; Savoldelli, Georges L.; Nendaz, Mathieu R.

2017-01-01

Interprofessional collaboration between doctors and nurses is based on team mental models, in particular for each professional’s roles. Our objective was to identify factors influencing concordance on the expectations of doctors’ and nurses’ roles and responsibilities in an Internal Medicine ward. Using a dataset of 196 doctor-nurse pairs (14x14 = 196), we analyzed choices and prioritized management actions of 14 doctors and 14 nurses in six clinical nurse role scenarios, and in five doctor role scenarios (6 options per scenario). In logistic regression models with a non-nested correlation structure, we evaluated concordance among doctors and nurses, and adjusted for potential confounders (including prior experience in Internal Medicine, acuteness of case and gender). Concordance was associated with number of female professionals (adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.73), for acute situations (adjusted OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.13 to 3.62), and in doctor role scenarios (adjusted OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.32 to 3.65). Prior experience and country of training were not significant predictors of concordance. In conclusion, our concordance-based approach helped us identify areas of lower concordance in expected doctor-nurse roles and responsibilities, particularly in non-acute situations, which can be targeted by future interprofessional, educational interventions. PMID:28792524

Addictive use of social networking sites can be explained by the interaction of Internet use expectancies, Internet literacy, and psychopathological symptoms.

PubMed

Wegmann, Elisa; Stodt, Benjamin; Brand, Matthias

2015-09-01

Most people use the Internet in a functional way to achieve certain goals and needs. However, there is an increasing number of people who experience negative consequences like loss of control and distress based on an excessive use of the Internet and its specific online applications. Some approaches postulate similarities with behavioral addictions as well as substance dependencies. They differentiate between a generalized and a specific Internet addiction, such as the pathological use of social networking sites (SIA-SNS). Prior studies particularly identified the use of applications, personal characteristics, and psychopathological symptoms as significant predictors for the development and maintenance of this phenomenon. So far, it remains unclear how psychopathological symptoms like depression and social anxiety interact with individual expectancies of Internet use and capabilities of handling the Internet, summarized as Internet literacy. The current study (N = 334) investigated the interaction of these components in a structural equation model. The results indicate that the effects of depression and social anxiety on SIA-SNS were mediated by Internet use expectancies and self-regulation. Thus, Internet use expectancies seem to be crucial for SIA-SNS, which is in line with prior models. SNS use may be reinforced by experienced gratification and relief from negative feelings. Individual competences in handling the Internet may be preventive for the development of SIA-SNS.

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

PubMed

Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

2018-02-01

There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

Relative Risks for Lethal Prostate Cancer Based on Complete Family History of Prostate Cancer Death.

PubMed

Albright, Frederick S; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A

2017-01-01

There are few published familial relative risks (RR) for lethal prostate cancer. This study estimates RRs for lethal prostate cancer based on comprehensive family history data, with the goal of improving identification of those men at highest risk of dying from prostate cancer. We used a population-based genealogical resource linked to a statewide electronic SEER cancer registry and death certificates to estimate relative risks (RR) for death from prostate cancer based upon family history. Over 600,000 male probands were analyzed, representing a variety of family history constellations of lethal prostate cancer. RR estimates were based on the ratio of the observed to the expected number of lethal prostate cancer cases using internal rates. RRs for lethal prostate cancer based on the number of affected first-degree relatives (FDR) ranged from 2.49 (95% CI: 2.27, 2.73) for exactly 1 FDR to 5.30 (2.13, 10.93) for ≥3 affected FDRs. In an absence of affected FDRs, increased risk was also significant for increasing numbers of affected second-degree or third degree relatives. Equivalent risks were observed for similar maternal and paternal family history. This study provides population-based estimates of lethal prostate cancer risk based on lethal prostate cancer family history. Many family history constellations associated with two to greater than five times increased risk for lethal prostate cancer were identified. These lethal prostate cancer risk estimates hold potential for use in identification, screening, early diagnosis, and treatment of men at high risk for death from prostate cancer. Prostate77:41-48, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Computational-Model-Based Analysis of Context Effects on Harmonic Expectancy.

PubMed

Morimoto, Satoshi; Remijn, Gerard B; Nakajima, Yoshitaka

2016-01-01

Expectancy for an upcoming musical chord, harmonic expectancy, is supposedly based on automatic activation of tonal knowledge. Since previous studies implicitly relied on interpretations based on Western music theory, the underlying computational processes involved in harmonic expectancy and how it relates to tonality need further clarification. In particular, short chord sequences which cannot lead to unique keys are difficult to interpret in music theory. In this study, we examined effects of preceding chords on harmonic expectancy from a computational perspective, using stochastic modeling. We conducted a behavioral experiment, in which participants listened to short chord sequences and evaluated the subjective relatedness of the last chord to the preceding ones. Based on these judgments, we built stochastic models of the computational process underlying harmonic expectancy. Following this, we compared the explanatory power of the models. Our results imply that, even when listening to short chord sequences, internally constructed and updated tonal assumptions determine the expectancy of the upcoming chord.

Computational-Model-Based Analysis of Context Effects on Harmonic Expectancy

PubMed Central

Morimoto, Satoshi; Remijn, Gerard B.; Nakajima, Yoshitaka

2016-01-01

Expectancy for an upcoming musical chord, harmonic expectancy, is supposedly based on automatic activation of tonal knowledge. Since previous studies implicitly relied on interpretations based on Western music theory, the underlying computational processes involved in harmonic expectancy and how it relates to tonality need further clarification. In particular, short chord sequences which cannot lead to unique keys are difficult to interpret in music theory. In this study, we examined effects of preceding chords on harmonic expectancy from a computational perspective, using stochastic modeling. We conducted a behavioral experiment, in which participants listened to short chord sequences and evaluated the subjective relatedness of the last chord to the preceding ones. Based on these judgments, we built stochastic models of the computational process underlying harmonic expectancy. Following this, we compared the explanatory power of the models. Our results imply that, even when listening to short chord sequences, internally constructed and updated tonal assumptions determine the expectancy of the upcoming chord. PMID:27003807

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

PubMed Central

Massad, Eduardo; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Ximenes, Raphael; Amaku, Marcos; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Coelho, Giovanini Evelim; da Silva, Jarbas Barbosa; Struchiner, Claudio José; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento

2014-01-01

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas. PMID:24863976

DSMC simulations of vapor transport toward development of the lithium vapor box divertor concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagoe, Christopher; Schwartz, Jacob; Goldston, Robert

2016-10-01

The lithium vapor divertor box concept attempts to achieve volumetric dissipation of the high heat efflux from a fusion power system. The vapor extracts the heat of the incoming plasma by ionization and radiation, while remaining localized in the vapor box due to differential pumping based on rapid condensation. Preliminary calculations with lithium vapor at densities appropriate for an NSTX-U-scale machine give Knudsen numbers between 0.01 and 1, outside both the range of continuum fluid dynamics and of collisionless Monte Carlo. The direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, however, can simulate rarefied gas flows in this regime. Using the solver contained in the OpenFOAM package, pressure-driven flows of water vapor will be analyzed. The use of water vapor in the relevant range of Knudsen number allows for a flexible similarity experiment to verify the reliability of the code before moving to tests with lithium. The simulation geometry consists of chains of boxes on a temperature gradient, connected by slots with widths that are a representative fraction of the dimensions of the box. We expect choked flow, sonic shocks, and order-of-magnitude pressure and density drops from box to box, but this expectation will be tested in the simulation and then experiment. This work is supported by the Princeton Environmental Institute.

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.

PubMed

Massad, Eduardo; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Ximenes, Raphael; Amaku, Marcos; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Coelho, Giovanini Evelim; Silva, Jarbas Barbosa da; Struchiner, Claudio José; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento

2014-06-01

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

OPENMED: A facility for biomedical experiments based on the CERN Low Energy Ion Ring (LEIR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carli, Christian

At present protons and carbon ions are in clinical use for hadron therapy at a growing number of treatment centers all over the world. Nevertheless, only limited direct clinical evidence of their superiority over other forms of radiotherapy is available [1]. Furthermore fundamental studies on biological effects of hadron beams have been carried out at different times (some a long time ago) in different laboratories and under different conditions. Despite an increased availability of ion beams for hadron therapy, beam time for preclinical studies is expected to remain insufficient as the priority for therapy centers is to treat the maximum number of patients. Most of the remaining beam time is expected to be required for setting up and measurements to guarantee appropriate good quality beams for treatments. The proposed facility for biomedical research [2] in support of hadron therapy centers would provide ion beams for interested research groups and allow them to carry out basic studies under well defined conditions. Typical studies would include radiobiological phenomena like relative biological effectiveness with different energies, ion species, and intensities. Furthermore possible studies include the development of advanced dosimetry in heterogeneous materials that resemble the human body, imaging techniques and, at a later stage, when the maximum energy with the LEIR magnets can be reached, fragmentation.

Dynamical role of Ekman pumping in rapidly rotating convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stellmach, Stephan; Julien, Keith; Cheng, Jonathan; Aurnou, Jonathan

2015-04-01

The exact nature of the mechanical boundary conditions (i.e. no-slip versus stress-free) is usually considered to be of secondary importance in the rapidly rotating parameter regime characterizing planetary cores. While they have considerable influence for the Ekman numbers achievable in today's global simulations, for planetary values both the viscous Ekman layers and the associated secondary flows are generally expected to become negligibly small. In fact, usually the main purpose of using stress-free boundary conditions in numerical dynamo simulations is to suppress unrealistically large friction and pumping effects. In this study, we investigate the influence of the mechanical boundary conditions on core convection systematically. By restricting ourselves to the idealized case of rapidly rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection, we are able to combine results from direct numerical simulations (DNS), laboratory experiments and asymptotic theory into a coherent picture. Contrary to the general expectation, we show that the dynamical effects of Ekman pumping increase with decreasing Ekman number over the investigated parameter range. While stress-free DNS results converge to the asymptotic predictions, both no-slip simulations and laboratory experiments consistently reveal increasingly large deviations from the existing asymptotic theory based on dynamically passive Ekman layers. The implications of these results for core dynamics are discussed briefly.

The Relationship Between Technical Errors and Decision Making Skills in the Junior Resident

PubMed Central

Nathwani, J. N.; Fiers, R.M.; Ray, R.D.; Witt, A.K.; Law, K. E.; DiMarco, S.M.; Pugh, C.M.

2017-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to co-evaluate resident technical errors and decision-making capabilities during placement of a subclavian central venous catheter (CVC). We hypothesize that there will be significant correlations between scenario based decision making skills, and technical proficiency in central line insertion. We also predict residents will have problems in anticipating common difficulties and generating solutions associated with line placement. Design Participants were asked to insert a subclavian central line on a simulator. After completion, residents were presented with a real life patient photograph depicting CVC placement and asked to anticipate difficulties and generate solutions. Error rates were analyzed using chi-square tests and a 5% expected error rate. Correlations were sought by comparing technical errors and scenario based decision making. Setting This study was carried out at seven tertiary care centers. Participants Study participants (N=46) consisted of largely first year research residents that could be followed longitudinally. Second year research and clinical residents were not excluded. Results Six checklist errors were committed more often than anticipated. Residents performed an average of 1.9 errors, significantly more than the 1 error, at most, per person expected (t(44)=3.82, p<.001). The most common error was performance of the procedure steps in the wrong order (28.5%, P<.001). Some of the residents (24%) had no errors, 30% committed one error, and 46 % committed more than one error. The number of technical errors committed negatively correlated with the total number of commonly identified difficulties and generated solutions (r(33)= −.429, p=.021, r(33)= −.383, p=.044 respectively). Conclusions Almost half of the surgical residents committed multiple errors while performing subclavian CVC placement. The correlation between technical errors and decision making skills suggests a critical need to train residents in both technique and error management. ACGME Competencies Medical Knowledge, Practice Based Learning and Improvement, Systems Based Practice PMID:27671618

Psychological and behavioral mechanisms influencing the use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) in cancer patients.

PubMed

Hirai, K; Komura, K; Tokoro, A; Kuromaru, T; Ohshima, A; Ito, T; Sumiyoshi, Y; Hyodo, I

2008-01-01

This study explored the psychological and behavioral mechanisms of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) use in Japanese cancer patients using two applied behavioral models, the transtheoretical model (TTM), and theory of planned behavior (TPB). Questionnaires were distributed to 1100 patients at three cancer treatment facilities in Japan and data on 521 cancer patients were used in the final analysis. The questionnaire included items based on TTM and TPB variables, as well as three psychological batteries. According to the TTM, 88 patients (17%) were in precontemplation, 226 (43%) in contemplation, 33 (6%) in preparation, 71 (14%) in action, and 103 (20%) in maintenance. The model derived from structural equation modeling revealed that the stage of CAM use was significantly affected by the pros, cons, expectation from family, norms of medical staff, use of chemotherapy, period from diagnosis, and place of treatment. The primary factor for the stage of CAM use was the expectation from family. The findings revealed the existence of a number of psychologically induced potential CAM users, and psychological variables including positive attitude for CAM use and perceived family expectation greatly influence CAM use in cancer patients.

Runway Scheduling Using Generalized Dynamic Programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montoya, Justin; Wood, Zachary; Rathinam, Sivakumar

2011-01-01

A generalized dynamic programming method for finding a set of pareto optimal solutions for a runway scheduling problem is introduced. The algorithm generates a set of runway fight sequences that are optimal for both runway throughput and delay. Realistic time-based operational constraints are considered, including miles-in-trail separation, runway crossings, and wake vortex separation. The authors also model divergent runway takeoff operations to allow for reduced wake vortex separation. A modeled Dallas/Fort Worth International airport and three baseline heuristics are used to illustrate preliminary benefits of using the generalized dynamic programming method. Simulated traffic levels ranged from 10 aircraft to 30 aircraft with each test case spanning 15 minutes. The optimal solution shows a 40-70 percent decrease in the expected delay per aircraft over the baseline schedulers. Computational results suggest that the algorithm is promising for real-time application with an average computation time of 4.5 seconds. For even faster computation times, two heuristics are developed. As compared to the optimal, the heuristics are within 5% of the expected delay per aircraft and 1% of the expected number of runway operations per hour ad can be 100x faster.

Total knee arthroplasty in motivated patients with knee osteoarthritis and athletic activity approach type goals: a conceptual decision-making model.

PubMed

Nyland, John; Kanouse, Zachary; Krupp, Ryan; Caborn, David; Jakob, Rolie

2011-01-01

Knee osteoarthritis is one of the most common disabling medical conditions. With longer life expectancy the number of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures being performed worldwide is projected to increase dramatically. Patient education, physical activity, bodyweight levels, expectations and goals regarding the ability to continue athletic activity participation are also increasing. For the subset of motivated patients with knee osteoarthritis who have athletic activity approach type goals, early TKA may not be the best knee osteoarthritis treatment option to improve satisfaction, quality of life and outcomes. The purpose of this clinical commentary is to present a conceptual decision-making model designed to improve the knee osteoarthritis treatment intervention outcome for motivated patients with athletic activity approach type goals. The model focuses on improving knee surgeon, patient and rehabilitation clinician dialogue by rank ordering routine activities of daily living and quality of life evoking athletic activities based on knee symptom exacerbation or re-injury risk. This process should help establish realistic patient expectations and goals for a given knee osteoarthritis treatment intervention that will more likely improve self-efficacy, functional independence, satisfaction and outcomes while decreasing the failure risk associated with early TKA.

Virtual reality games for movement rehabilitation in neurological conditions: how do we meet the needs and expectations of the users?

PubMed

Lewis, Gwyn N; Rosie, Juliet A

2012-01-01

To review quantitative and qualitative studies that have examined the users' response to virtual reality game-based interventions in people with movement disorders associated with chronic neurological conditions. We aimed to determine key themes that influenced users' enjoyment and engagement in the games and develop suggestions as to how future systems could best address their needs and expectations. There were a limited number of studies that evaluated user opinions. From those found, seven common themes emerged: technology limitations, user control and therapist assistance, the novel physical and cognitive challenge, feedback, social interaction, game purpose and expectations, and the virtual environments. Our key recommendations derived from the review were to avoid technology failure, maintain overt therapeutic principles within the games, encompass progression to promote continuing physical and cognitive challenge, and to provide feedback that is easily and readily associated with success. While there have been few studies that have evaluated the users' perspective of virtual rehabilitation games, our findings indicate that canvassing these experiences provides valuable information on the needs of the intended users. Incorporating our recommendations may enhance the efficacy of future systems to optimize the rehabilitation benefits of virtual reality games.

Standard Period Life Table Used to Compute the Life Expectancy of Diseased Subpopulations: More Confusing Than Helpful.

PubMed

Perron, Linda; Simard, Marc; Brisson, Jacques; Hamel, Denis; Lo, Ernest

2017-10-01

Life expectancy (LE) based on a period life table (PLT) traditionally serves as a general population summary metric. It is, however, becoming more frequently reported for chronically afflicted subpopulations. In general populations, there is always an obvious real cohort sharing the hypothetical PLT cohort characteristics, and the LE estimate is intuitively understood as that real cohort mean survival time, assuming constancy of death risks. In diseased subpopulations, the correspondence between the hypothetical cohort and a real cohort is not straightforward. Furthermore, the excess mortality of chronic diseases usually changes according to age at onset and time since onset. The standard PLT method does not allow for proper control of these issues, so the LE estimate can only be deemed valid under specific assumptions. Without clear statements about the real cohort to whom the estimate is intended and the assumptions allowing disregard of the effect of age at onset and time since onset, LEs of afflicted subpopulations computed with the PLT are only abstract numbers summarizing mortality rates. If called "life expectancy," they can be seriously misleading. The same applies to health-adjusted LE.

Application of Distribution Transformer Thermal Life Models to Electrified Vehicle Charging Loads Using Monte-Carlo Method: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuss, M.; Markel, T.; Kramer, W.

Concentrated purchasing patterns of plug-in vehicles may result in localized distribution transformer overload scenarios. Prolonged periods of transformer overloading causes service life decrements, and in worst-case scenarios, results in tripped thermal relays and residential service outages. This analysis will review distribution transformer load models developed in the IEC 60076 standard, and apply the model to a neighborhood with plug-in hybrids. Residential distribution transformers are sized such that night-time cooling provides thermal recovery from heavy load conditions during the daytime utility peak. It is expected that PHEVs will primarily be charged at night in a residential setting. If not managed properly,more » some distribution transformers could become overloaded, leading to a reduction in transformer life expectancy, thus increasing costs to utilities and consumers. A Monte-Carlo scheme simulated each day of the year, evaluating 100 load scenarios as it swept through the following variables: number of vehicle per transformer, transformer size, and charging rate. A general method for determining expected transformer aging rate will be developed, based on the energy needs of plug-in vehicles loading a residential transformer.« less

Working together versus working autonomously: a new power-dependence perspective on the individual-level of analysis.

PubMed

de Jong, Simon B

2014-01-01

Recent studies have indicated that it is important to investigate the interaction between task interdependence and task autonomy because this interaction can affect team effectiveness. However, only a limited number of studies have been conducted and those studies focused solely on the team level of analysis. Moreover, there has also been a dearth of theoretical development. Therefore, this study develops and tests an alternative theoretical perspective in an attempt to understand if, and if so why, this interaction is important at the individual level of analysis. Based on interdependence theory and power-dependence theory, we expected that highly task-interdependent individuals who reported high task autonomy would be more powerful and better performers. In contrast, we expected that similarly high task-interdependent individuals who reported less task autonomy would be less powerful and would be weaker performers. These expectations were supported by multi-level and bootstrapping analyses performed on a multi-source dataset (self-, peer-, manager-ratings) comprised of 182 employees drawn from 37 teams. More specifically, the interaction between task interdependence and task autonomy was γ =.128, p <.05 for power and γ =.166, p <.05 for individual performance. The 95% bootstrap interval ranged from .0038 to .0686.

Update in geriatrics: What geriatric oncology can learn from general geriatric research.

PubMed

Hamaker, Marije E; Prins, Meike; van Huis, Lieke H

2018-01-29

Life expectancy has been steadily increasing for decades and this trend is likely to continue in coming years. In fact, there is more than a 50% probability that by 2030 female life expectancy could break the 90 year barrier, with more than half of the expected gains due to enhanced longevity above the age of 65 years. The resultant aging of societies means that health care will be faced with a rising number of increasingly older patients, who are also likely to have higher levels of multimorbidity. Most issues regarding assessment, prognostication and, management of older patients are not unique to geriatric oncology and thus there is opportunity to learn from progress in other fields. The purpose of this paper is to provide an update on research, reviews, and debate in general geriatrics that may be relevant to clinicians and researchers active in geriatric oncology. The selection of topics was based on a general search of the table of contents of widely read geriatrics and internal medicine journals, and includes geriatric co-management, improving research for older patients, caregiver issues, eliciting patient preferences, and shared-decision making. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

49 CFR 1244.4 - Sampling of waybills.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Sampling of waybills. 1244.4 Section 1244.4... PROPERTY-RAILROADS § 1244.4 Sampling of waybills. (a) Subject railroads shall file waybill sample... expected sampling rates for the manual system are as follows: Numbers of carloads on waybill Expected...

49 CFR 1244.4 - Sampling of waybills.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Sampling of waybills. 1244.4 Section 1244.4... PROPERTY-RAILROADS § 1244.4 Sampling of waybills. (a) Subject railroads shall file waybill sample... expected sampling rates for the manual system are as follows: Numbers of carloads on waybill Expected...

NCAA Penalizes Fewer Teams than Expected

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sander, Libby

2008-01-01

This article reports that the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has penalized fewer teams than it expected this year over athletes' poor academic performance. For years, officials with the NCAA have predicted that strikingly high numbers of college sports teams could be at risk of losing scholarships this year because of their…

The Expected Adjustment and Academic Outcomes of Honors College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Washington, Christina R.

2012-01-01

The transition to an institution of higher education can present challenges and difficulties, but it is a student's expectations that can ultimately predict adjustment (Jackson, Pancer, Pratt, & Hunsberger, 2000). A larger number of students who experience difficulties in their adjustment end up withdrawing from the institution (Baker…

Spending our water and soils for food security

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A third of the world’s population suffers from food insecurity. With an expected 2 billion population increase in the next few decades that number is expected to rise significantly, leading to more people that are insecure and starving unless our soils can produce more food. Added to the problem are...

Promoting a Dialogue between Neuroscience and Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, David A.

2011-01-01

There have been a number of calls for a 'dialogue' between neuroscience and education. However, 'dialogue' implies an equal conversation between partners. The outcome of collaboration between neuroscientists and educators not normally expected to be so balanced. Educationists are expected to learn from neuroscience how to conduct research with…

Expected Trials under the Matching Rounds Problem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farmer, Jim

2014-01-01

This article reviews the famous "matching problem," with a particular focus on the expected number of objects that are correctly placed. The author discusses the following topics: three versions suitable for teaching the matching problem in the classroom; the solution to the matching problem; the use of the strong form of mathematical…

Multimedia education increases elder knowledge of emergency department care.

PubMed

Terndrup, Thomas E; Ali, Sameer; Hulse, Steve; Shaffer, Michele; Lloyd, Tom

2013-03-01

Elders who utilize the emergency department (ED) may have little prospective knowledge of appropriate expectations during an ED encounter. Improving elder orientation to ED expectations is important for satisfaction and health education. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a multi-media education intervention as a method for informing independently living elders about ED care. The program delivered messages categorically as, the number of tests, providers, decisions and disposition decision making. Interventional trial of representative elders over 59 years of age comparing pre and post multimedia program exposure. A brief (0.3 hour) video that chronicled the key events after a hypothetical 911 call for chest pain was shown. The video used a clinical narrator, 15 ED health care providers, and 2 professional actors for the patient and spouse. Pre- and post-video tests results were obtained with audience response technology (ART) assessed learning using a 4 point Likert scale. Valid data from 142 participants were analyzed pre to post rankings (Wilcoxon signed-rank tests). The following four learning objectives showed significant improvements: number of tests expected [median differences on a 4-point Likert scale with 95% confidence intervals: 0.50 (0.00, 1.00)]; number of providers expected 1.0 (1.00, 1.50); communications 1.0 (1.00, 1.50); and pre-hospital medical treatment 0.50 (0.00, 1.00). Elders (96%) judged the intervention as improving their ability to cope with an ED encounter. A short video with graphic side-bar information is an effective educational strategy to improve elder understanding of expectations during a hypothetical ED encounter following calling 911.

Susceptibility of contrail ice crystal numbers to aircraft soot particle emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kärcher, B.; Voigt, C.

2017-08-01

We develop an idealized, physically based model describing combined effects of ice nucleation and sublimation on ice crystal number during persistent contrail formation. Our study represents the first effort to predict ice numbers at the point where contrails transition into contrail cirrus—several minutes past formation—by connecting them to aircraft soot particle emissions and atmospheric supersaturation with respect to ice. Results averaged over an observed exponential distribution of ice supersaturation (mean value 15%) indicate that large reductions in soot particle numbers are needed to lower contrail ice crystal numbers significantly for soot emission indices around 1015 (kg fuel)-1, because reductions in nucleated ice number are partially compensated by sublimation losses. Variations in soot particle (-50%) and water vapor (+10%) emission indices at threefold lower soot emissions resulting from biofuel blending cause ice crystal numbers to change by -35% and <5%, respectively. The efficiency of reduction depends on ice supersaturation and the size distribution of nucleated ice crystals in jet exhaust plumes and on atmospheric ice supersaturation, making the latter another key factor in contrail mitigation. We expect our study to have important repercussions for planning airborne measurements targeting contrail formation, designing parameterization schemes for use in large-scale models, reducing uncertainties in predicting contrail cirrus, and mitigating the climate impact of aviation.

Estimation of the tourism climate in the Hunter Region, Australia, in the early twenty-first century.

PubMed

Shiue, Ivy; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-07-01

Existing tourism-related climate information and evaluation are typically based on mean monthly conditions of air temperature and precipitation and do not include thermal perception and other climate parameters relevant for tourists. Here, we quantify climate based on the climate facets relevant to tourism (thermal, physical, aesthetical), and apply the results to the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). This paper presents bioclimatic and tourism climatological conditions in the Hunter Region-one of Australia's most popular tourist destinations. In the Hunter Region, generally, temperatures below 15°C occur from April through October, temperatures less than 25°C are expected throughout the whole year, while humidity sits around 50%. As expected, large differences between air temperature and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) were clearly identified. The widest differences were seen in summer time rather than in the winter period. In addition, cold stress was observed less than 10% of the time in winter while around 40-60% of heat stress was observed in summer time. This correlates with the highest numbers of international visitors, who usually seek a warmer weather, at the beginning of summer time (November and December) and also to the number of domestic visitors, who tend to seek cooler places for recreation and leisure, in late summer (January-March). It was concluded that thermal bioclimate assessment such as PET and CTIS can be applied in the Hunter region, and that local governments and the tourism industry should take an integrated approach to providing more relevant weather and climate information for both domestic and international tourists in the near future.

Effect of horizontal curves on urban arterial crashes.

PubMed

Banihashemi, Mohamadreza

2016-10-01

The crash prediction models of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM), 2010 estimate the expected number of crashes for different facility types. Models in Part C Chapter 12 of the first edition of the HSM include crash prediction models for divided and undivided urban arterials. Each of the HSM crash prediction models for highway segments is comprised of a "Safety Performance Function," a function of AADT and segment length, plus, a series of "Crash Modification Factors" (CMFs). The SPF estimates the expected number of crashes for the site if the site features are of base condition. The effects of the other features of the site, if their values are different from base condition, are carried out through use of CMFs. The existing models for urban arterials do not have any CMF for horizontal curvature. The goal of this research is to investigate if the horizontal alignment has any significant effect on crashes on any of these types of facilities and if so, to develop a CMF for this feature. Washington State cross sectional data from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS), 2014 was used in this research. Data from 2007 to 2009 was used to conduct the investigation. The 2010 data was used to validate the results. As the results showed, the horizontal curvature has significant safety effect on two-lane undivided urban arterials with speed limits of 35 mph and higher and using a CMF for horizontal curvature in the crash prediction model of this type of facility improves the prediction of crashes significantly, for both tangent and curve segments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probing the Cosmic Gamma-Ray Burst Rate with Trigger Simulations of the Swift Burst Alert Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lien, Amy; Sakamoto, Takanori; Gehrels, Neil; Palmer, David M.; Barthelmy, Scott D.; Graziani, Carlo; Cannizzo, John K.

2013-01-01

The gamma-ray burst (GRB) rate is essential for revealing the connection between GRBs, supernovae and stellar evolution. Additionally, the GRB rate at high redshift provides a strong probe of star formation history in the early universe. While hundreds of GRBs are observed by Swift, it remains difficult to determine the intrinsic GRB rate due to the complex trigger algorithm of Swift. Current studies of the GRB rate usually approximate the Swift trigger algorithm by a single detection threshold. However, unlike the previously own GRB instruments, Swift has over 500 trigger criteria based on photon count rate and additional image threshold for localization. To investigate possible systematic biases and explore the intrinsic GRB properties, we develop a program that is capable of simulating all the rate trigger criteria and mimicking the image threshold. Our simulations show that adopting the complex trigger algorithm of Swift increases the detection rate of dim bursts. As a result, our simulations suggest bursts need to be dimmer than previously expected to avoid over-producing the number of detections and to match with Swift observations. Moreover, our results indicate that these dim bursts are more likely to be high redshift events than low-luminosity GRBs. This would imply an even higher cosmic GRB rate at large redshifts than previous expectations based on star-formation rate measurements, unless other factors, such as the luminosity evolution, are taken into account. The GRB rate from our best result gives a total number of 4568 +825 -1429 GRBs per year that are beamed toward us in the whole universe.