A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortes, Antonio I.

The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer hypotheses for human testing using flight simulators.

Single photon counting linear mode avalanche photodiode technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, George M.; Huntington, Andrew S.

2011-10-01

The false count rate of a single-photon-sensitive photoreceiver consisting of a high-gain, low-excess-noise linear-mode InGaAs avalanche photodiode (APD) and a high-bandwidth transimpedance amplifier (TIA) is fit to a statistical model. The peak height distribution of the APD's multiplied dark current is approximated by the weighted sum of McIntyre distributions, each characterizing dark current generated at a different location within the APD's junction. The peak height distribution approximated in this way is convolved with a Gaussian distribution representing the input-referred noise of the TIA to generate the statistical distribution of the uncorrelated sum. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) representing count probability as a function of detection threshold is computed, and the CDF model fit to empirical false count data. It is found that only k=0 McIntyre distributions fit the empirically measured CDF at high detection threshold, and that false count rate drops faster than photon count rate as detection threshold is raised. Once fit to empirical false count data, the model predicts the improvement of the false count rate to be expected from reductions in TIA noise and APD dark current. Improvement by at least three orders of magnitude is thought feasible with further manufacturing development and a capacitive-feedback TIA (CTIA).

Expectancy Effects on Self-Reported Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms in Simulated Neurofeedback: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Lee, Grace J; Suhr, Julie A

2018-03-31

Expectancy is a psychological factor that can impact treatment effectiveness. Research on neurofeedback for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) suggests expectancy may contribute to treatment outcomes, though evidence for expectancy as an explanatory factor is sparse. This pilot study investigated the effects of expectancies on self-reported ADHD symptoms in simulated neurofeedback. Forty-six adults who were concerned that they had ADHD expected to receive active neurofeedback, but were randomly assigned to receive a placebo with false feedback indicating attentive (positive false feedback) or inattentive (negative false feedback) states. Effects of the expectancy manipulation were measured on an ADHD self-report scale. Large expectancy effects were found, such that individuals who received positive false feedback reported significant decreases in ADHD symptoms, whereas individuals who received negative false feedback reported significant increases in ADHD symptoms. Findings suggest that expectancy should be considered as an explanatory mechanism for ADHD symptom change in response to neurofeedback.

A risk-adjusted O-E CUSUM with monitoring bands for monitoring medical outcomes.

PubMed

Sun, Rena Jie; Kalbfleisch, John D

2013-03-01

In order to monitor a medical center's survival outcomes using simple plots, we introduce a risk-adjusted Observed-Expected (O-E) Cumulative SUM (CUSUM) along with monitoring bands as decision criterion.The proposed monitoring bands can be used in place of a more traditional but complicated V-shaped mask or the simultaneous use of two one-sided CUSUMs. The resulting plot is designed to simultaneously monitor for failure time outcomes that are "worse than expected" or "better than expected." The slopes of the O-E CUSUM provide direct estimates of the relative risk (as compared to a standard or expected failure rate) for the data being monitored. Appropriate rejection regions are obtained by controlling the false alarm rate (type I error) over a period of given length. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. A case study is carried out for 58 liver transplant centers. The use of CUSUM methods for quality improvement is stressed. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kipping, David M.; Chen, Jingjing; Sandford, Emily

The analysis of Proxima Centauri’s radial velocities recently led Anglada-Escudé et al. to claim the presence of a low-mass planet orbiting the Sun’s nearest star once every 11.2 days. Although the a priori probability that Proxima b transits its parent star is just 1.5%, the potential impact of such a discovery would be considerable. Independent of recent radial velocity efforts, we observed Proxima Centauri for 12.5 days in 2014 and 31 days in 2015 with the Microwave and Oscillations of Stars space telescope. We report here that we cannot make a compelling case that Proxima b transits in our precisemore » photometric time series. Imposing an informative prior on the period and phase, we do detect a candidate signal with the expected depth. However, perturbing the phase prior across 100 evenly spaced intervals reveals one strong false positive and one weaker instance. We estimate a false-positive rate of at least a few percent and a much higher false-negative rate of 20%–40%, likely caused by the very high flare rate of Proxima Centauri. Comparing our candidate signal to HATSouth ground-based photometry reveals that the signal is somewhat, but not conclusively, disfavored (1 σ –2 σ ), leading us to argue that the signal is most likely spurious. We expect that infrared photometric follow-up could more conclusively test the existence of this candidate signal, owing to the suppression of flare activity and the impressive infrared brightness of the parent star.« less

No Conclusive Evidence for Transits of Proxima b in MOST Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kipping, David M.; Cameron, Chris; Hartman, Joel D.; Davenport, James R. A.; Matthews, Jaymie M.; Sasselov, Dimitar; Rowe, Jason; Siverd, Robert J.; Chen, Jingjing; Sandford, Emily; Bakos, Gáspár Á.; Jordán, Andrés; Bayliss, Daniel; Henning, Thomas; Mancini, Luigi; Penev, Kaloyan; Csubry, Zoltan; Bhatti, Waqas; Da Silva Bento, Joao; Guenther, David B.; Kuschnig, Rainer; Moffat, Anthony F. J.; Rucinski, Slavek M.; Weiss, Werner W.

2017-03-01

The analysis of Proxima Centauri’s radial velocities recently led Anglada-Escudé et al. to claim the presence of a low-mass planet orbiting the Sun’s nearest star once every 11.2 days. Although the a priori probability that Proxima b transits its parent star is just 1.5%, the potential impact of such a discovery would be considerable. Independent of recent radial velocity efforts, we observed Proxima Centauri for 12.5 days in 2014 and 31 days in 2015 with the Microwave and Oscillations of Stars space telescope. We report here that we cannot make a compelling case that Proxima b transits in our precise photometric time series. Imposing an informative prior on the period and phase, we do detect a candidate signal with the expected depth. However, perturbing the phase prior across 100 evenly spaced intervals reveals one strong false positive and one weaker instance. We estimate a false-positive rate of at least a few percent and a much higher false-negative rate of 20%-40%, likely caused by the very high flare rate of Proxima Centauri. Comparing our candidate signal to HATSouth ground-based photometry reveals that the signal is somewhat, but not conclusively, disfavored (1σ-2σ), leading us to argue that the signal is most likely spurious. We expect that infrared photometric follow-up could more conclusively test the existence of this candidate signal, owing to the suppression of flare activity and the impressive infrared brightness of the parent star.

Using the false memory paradigm to test two key elements of alcohol expectancy theory.

PubMed

Reich, Richard R; Goldman, Mark S; Noll, Jane A

2004-05-01

Two key aspects of alcohol expectancy theory--(a) that memories about alcohol effects are stored as relatively cohesive templates of information and (b) that these templates are automatically activated in alcohol-related contexts--were tested using the Deese-Roediger- McDermott false memory paradigm. Alcohol expectancy adjectives were studied, and false memory for expectancy target words was tested in neutral and alcohol contexts. Results indicated that in the alcohol context heavier drinkers showed more false memory for alcohol expectancy words than they did in a neutral context. Differences were not found for lighter drinkers. These results were consistent with alcohol expectancy theory, which was then compared with various forms of association theory in explaining these results and larger issues in the addiction field. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

Providing information about diagnostic features at retrieval reduces false recognition.

PubMed

Lane, Sean M; Roussel, Cristine C; Starns, Jeffrey J; Villa, Diane; Alonzo, Jill D

2008-11-01

In the following study, participants encoded blocked DRM word lists and we varied whether they received information before test about the utility of mnemonic features that potentially discriminate between veridical and false memories. The results of three experiments revealed that this manipulation successfully reduced false recognition of critical theme words. We also found that this manipulation was effective for younger but not older adults. Furthermore, calling attention to the features in test instructions alone was sufficient for reducing false recognition and its effectiveness was not enhanced by also asking participants to rate their phenomenal experience. We argue that providing diagnostic information before test allows participants to establish more accurate expectations about the task and thus improves the efficacy of retrieval and monitoring processes that are subsequently engaged.

Memory for temporally dynamic scenes.

PubMed

Ferguson, Ryan; Homa, Donald; Ellis, Derek

2017-07-01

Recognition memory was investigated for individual frames extracted from temporally continuous, visually rich film segments of 5-15 min. Participants viewed a short clip from a film in either a coherent or a jumbled order, followed by a recognition test of studied frames. Foils came either from an earlier or a later part of the film (Experiment 1) or from deleted segments selected from random cuts of varying duration (0.5 to 30 s) within the film itself (Experiment 2). When the foils came from an earlier or later part of the film (Experiment 1), recognition was excellent, with the hit rate far exceeding the false-alarm rate (.78 vs. 18). In Experiment 2, recognition was far worse, with the hit rate (.76) exceeding the false-alarm rate only for foils drawn from the longest cuts (15 and 30 s) and matching the false-alarm rate for the 5 s segments. When the foils were drawn from the briefest cuts (0.5 and 1.0 s), the false-alarm rate exceeded the hit rate. Unexpectedly, jumbling had no effect on recognition in either experiment. These results are consistent with the view that memory for complex visually temporal events is excellent, with the integrity unperturbed by disruption of the global structure of the visual stream. Disruption of memory was observed only when foils were drawn from embedded segments of duration less than 5 s, an outcome consistent with the view that memory at these shortest durations are consolidated with expectations drawn from the previous stream.

Auditory false perception in schizophrenia: Development and validation of auditory signal detection task.

PubMed

Chhabra, Harleen; Sowmya, Selvaraj; Sreeraj, Vanteemar S; Kalmady, Sunil V; Shivakumar, Venkataram; Amaresha, Anekal C; Narayanaswamy, Janardhanan C; Venkatasubramanian, Ganesan

2016-12-01

Auditory hallucinations constitute an important symptom component in 70-80% of schizophrenia patients. These hallucinations are proposed to occur due to an imbalance between perceptual expectation and external input, resulting in attachment of meaning to abstract noises; signal detection theory has been proposed to explain these phenomena. In this study, we describe the development of an auditory signal detection task using a carefully chosen set of English words that could be tested successfully in schizophrenia patients coming from varying linguistic, cultural and social backgrounds. Schizophrenia patients with significant auditory hallucinations (N=15) and healthy controls (N=15) performed the auditory signal detection task wherein they were instructed to differentiate between a 5-s burst of plain white noise and voiced-noise. The analysis showed that false alarms (p=0.02), discriminability index (p=0.001) and decision bias (p=0.004) were significantly different between the two groups. There was a significant negative correlation between false alarm rate and decision bias. These findings extend further support for impaired perceptual expectation system in schizophrenia patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal selection of markers for validation or replication from genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Greenwood, Celia M T; Rangrej, Jagadish; Sun, Lei

2007-07-01

With reductions in genotyping costs and the fast pace of improvements in genotyping technology, it is not uncommon for the individuals in a single study to undergo genotyping using several different platforms, where each platform may contain different numbers of markers selected via different criteria. For example, a set of cases and controls may be genotyped at markers in a small set of carefully selected candidate genes, and shortly thereafter, the same cases and controls may be used for a genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) association study. After such initial investigations, often, a subset of "interesting" markers is selected for validation or replication. Specifically, by validation, we refer to the investigation of associations between the selected subset of markers and the disease in independent data. However, it is not obvious how to choose the best set of markers for this validation. There may be a prior expectation that some sets of genotyping data are more likely to contain real associations. For example, it may be more likely for markers in plausible candidate genes to show disease associations than markers in a genome-wide scan. Hence, it would be desirable to select proportionally more markers from the candidate gene set. When a fixed number of markers are selected for validation, we propose an approach for identifying an optimal marker-selection configuration by basing the approach on minimizing the stratified false discovery rate. We illustrate this approach using a case-control study of colorectal cancer from Ontario, Canada, and we show that this approach leads to substantial reductions in the estimated false discovery rates in the Ontario dataset for the selected markers, as well as reductions in the expected false discovery rates for the proposed validation dataset. Copyright 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Discrete False-Discovery Rate Improves Identification of Differentially Abundant Microbes.

PubMed

Jiang, Lingjing; Amir, Amnon; Morton, James T; Heller, Ruth; Arias-Castro, Ery; Knight, Rob

2017-01-01

Differential abundance testing is a critical task in microbiome studies that is complicated by the sparsity of data matrices. Here we adapt for microbiome studies a solution from the field of gene expression analysis to produce a new method, discrete false-discovery rate (DS-FDR), that greatly improves the power to detect differential taxa by exploiting the discreteness of the data. Additionally, DS-FDR is relatively robust to the number of noninformative features, and thus removes the problem of filtering taxonomy tables by an arbitrary abundance threshold. We show by using a combination of simulations and reanalysis of nine real-world microbiome data sets that this new method outperforms existing methods at the differential abundance testing task, producing a false-discovery rate that is up to threefold more accurate, and halves the number of samples required to find a given difference (thus increasing the efficiency of microbiome experiments considerably). We therefore expect DS-FDR to be widely applied in microbiome studies. IMPORTANCE DS-FDR can achieve higher statistical power to detect significant findings in sparse and noisy microbiome data compared to the commonly used Benjamini-Hochberg procedure and other FDR-controlling procedures.

Impacting the effect of fMRI noise through hardware and acquisition choices - Implications for controlling false positive rates.

PubMed

Wald, Lawrence L; Polimeni, Jonathan R

2017-07-01

We review the components of time-series noise in fMRI experiments and the effect of image acquisition parameters on the noise. In addition to helping determine the total amount of signal and noise (and thus temporal SNR), the acquisition parameters have been shown to be critical in determining the ratio of thermal to physiological induced noise components in the time series. Although limited attention has been given to this latter metric, we show that it determines the degree of spatial correlations seen in the time-series noise. The spatially correlations of the physiological noise component are well known, but recent studies have shown that they can lead to a higher than expected false-positive rate in cluster-wise inference based on parametric statistical methods used by many researchers. Based on understanding the effect of acquisition parameters on the noise mixture, we propose several acquisition strategies that might be helpful reducing this elevated false-positive rate, such as moving to high spatial resolution or using highly-accelerated acquisitions where thermal sources dominate. We suggest that the spatial noise correlations at the root of the inflated false-positive rate problem can be limited with these strategies, and the well-behaved spatial auto-correlation functions (ACFs) assumed by the conventional statistical methods are retained if the high resolution data is smoothed to conventional resolutions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A utility/cost analysis of breast cancer risk prediction algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbey, Craig K.; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Wunderlich, Adam; Samuelson, Frank W.; Boone, John M.

2016-03-01

Breast cancer risk prediction algorithms are used to identify subpopulations that are at increased risk for developing breast cancer. They can be based on many different sources of data such as demographics, relatives with cancer, gene expression, and various phenotypic features such as breast density. Women who are identified as high risk may undergo a more extensive (and expensive) screening process that includes MRI or ultrasound imaging in addition to the standard full-field digital mammography (FFDM) exam. Given that there are many ways that risk prediction may be accomplished, it is of interest to evaluate them in terms of expected cost, which includes the costs of diagnostic outcomes. In this work we perform an expected-cost analysis of risk prediction algorithms that is based on a published model that includes the costs associated with diagnostic outcomes (true-positive, false-positive, etc.). We assume the existence of a standard screening method and an enhanced screening method with higher scan cost, higher sensitivity, and lower specificity. We then assess expected cost of using a risk prediction algorithm to determine who gets the enhanced screening method under the strong assumption that risk and diagnostic performance are independent. We find that if risk prediction leads to a high enough positive predictive value, it will be cost-effective regardless of the size of the subpopulation. Furthermore, in terms of the hit-rate and false-alarm rate of the of the risk prediction algorithm, iso-cost contours are lines with slope determined by properties of the available diagnostic systems for screening.

How many genetic markers to tag an individual? An empirical assessment of false matching rates among close relatives.

PubMed

Rew, Mary Beth; Robbins, Jooke; Mattila, David; Palsbøll, Per J; Bérube, Martine

2011-04-01

Genetic identification of individuals is now commonplace, enabling the application of tagging methods to elusive species or species that cannot be tagged by traditional methods. A key aspect is determining the number of loci required to ensure that different individuals have non-matching multi-locus genotypes. Closely related individuals are of particular concern because of elevated matching probabilities caused by their recent co-ancestry. This issue may be addressed by increasing the number of loci to a level where full siblings (the relatedness category with the highest matching probability) are expected to have non-matching multi-locus genotypes. However, increasing the number of loci to meet this "full-sib criterion" greatly increases the laboratory effort, which in turn may increase the genotyping error rate resulting in an upward-biased mark-recapture estimate of abundance as recaptures are missed due to genotyping errors. We assessed the contribution of false matches from close relatives among 425 maternally related humpback whales, each genotyped at 20 microsatellite loci. We observed a very low (0.5-4%) contribution to falsely matching samples from pairs of first-order relatives (i.e., parent and offspring or full siblings). The main contribution to falsely matching individuals from close relatives originated from second-order relatives (e.g., half siblings), which was estimated at 9%. In our study, the total number of observed matches agreed well with expectations based upon the matching probability estimated for unrelated individuals, suggesting that the full-sib criterion is overly conservative, and would have required a 280% relative increase in effort. We suggest that, under most circumstances, the overall contribution to falsely matching samples from close relatives is likely to be low, and hence applying the full-sib criterion is unnecessary. In those cases where close relatives may present a significant issue, such as unrepresentative sampling, we propose three different genotyping strategies requiring only a modest increase in effort, which will greatly reduce the number of false matches due to the presence of related individuals.

False-belief understanding i 2.5-year-olds: evidence for violation-of-expectation change-of-location and unexpected-contents tasks.

PubMed

He, Zijing; Bolz, Matthias; Baillargeon, Renée

2011-03-01

Until recently, it was generally assumed that the ability to attribute false beliefs did not emerge until about 4 years of age. However, recent reports using spontaneous- as opposed to elicited-response tasks have suggested that this ability may be present much earlier. To date, researchers have employed two kinds of spontaneous-response false-belief tasks: violation-of-expectation tasks have been used with infants in the second year of life, and anticipatory-looking tasks have been used with toddlers in the third year of life. In the present research, 2.5-year-old toddlers were tested in violation-of-expectation tasks involving a change-of-location situation (Experiment 1) and an unexpected-contents situation (Experiment 2). Results were positive in both situations, providing the first demonstrations of false-belief understanding in toddlers using violation-of-expectation tasks and, as such, pointing to a consistent and continuous picture of early false-belief understanding.

False-belief understanding in 2.5-year-olds: evidence from violation-of-expectation change-of-location and unexpected-contents tasks

PubMed Central

He, Zijing; Bolz, Matthias; Baillargeon, Renée

2012-01-01

Until recently, it was generally assumed that the ability to attribute false beliefs did not emerge until about 4 years of age. However, recent reports using spontaneous- as opposed to elicited-response tasks have suggested that this ability may be present much earlier. To date, researchers have employed two kinds of spontaneous-response false-belief tasks: violation-of-expectation tasks have been used with infants in the second year of life, and anticipatory-looking tasks have been used with toddlers in the third year of life. In the present research, 2.5-year-old toddlers were tested in violation-of-expectation tasks involving a change-of-location situation (Experiment 1) and an unexpected-contents situation (Experiment 2). Results were positive in both situations, providing the first demonstrations of false-belief understanding in toddlers using violation-of-expectation tasks and, as such, pointing to a consistent and continuous picture of early false-belief understanding. PMID:22213902

Analysis of space telescope data collection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.; Schoggen, W. O.

1982-01-01

An analysis of the expected performance for the Multiple Access (MA) system is provided. The analysis covers the expected bit error rate performance, the effects of synchronization loss, the problem of self-interference, and the problem of phase ambiguity. The problem of false acceptance of a command word due to data inversion is discussed. A mathematical determination of the probability of accepting an erroneous command word due to a data inversion is presented. The problem is examined for three cases: (1) a data inversion only, (2) a data inversion and a random error within the same command word, and a block (up to 256 48-bit words) containing both a data inversion and a random error.

The accuracy of HIV rapid testing in integrated bio-behavioral surveys of men who have sex with men across 5 Provinces in South Africa

PubMed Central

Kufa, Tendesayi; Lane, Tim; Manyuchi, Albert; Singh, Beverley; Isdahl, Zachary; Osmand, Thomas; Grasso, Mike; Struthers, Helen; McIntyre, James; Chipeta, Zawadi; Puren, Adrian

2017-01-01

Abstract We describe the accuracy of serial rapid HIV testing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa and discuss the implications for HIV testing and prevention. This was a cross-sectional survey conducted at five stand-alone facilities from five provinces. Demographic, behavioral, and clinical data were collected. Dried blood spots were obtained for HIV-related testing. Participants were offered rapid HIV testing using 2 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in series. In the laboratory, reference HIV testing was conducted using a third-generation enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and a fourth-generation EIA as confirmatory. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive, and false-negative rates were determined. Between August 2015 and July 2016, 2503 participants were enrolled. Of these, 2343 were tested by RDT on site with a further 2137 (91.2%) having definitive results on both RDT and EIA. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive rates, and false-negative rates were 92.6% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 89.6–94.8], 99.4% (95% CI 98.9–99.7), 97.4% (95% CI 95.2–98.6), 98.3% (95% CI 97.6–98.8), 0.6% (95% CI 0.3–1.1), and 7.4% (95% CI 5.2–10.4), respectively. False negatives were similar to true positives with respect to virological profiles. Overall accuracy of the RDT algorithm was high, but sensitivity was lower than expected. Post-HIV test counseling should include discussions of possible false-negative results and the need for retesting among HIV negatives. PMID:28700474

Underbody Blast Models of TBI Caused by Hyper-Acceleration and Secondary Head Impact

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

discovery rate (FDR), which controls for the expected proportion of false rejected hypotheses. ANOVA was performed to evaluate the significance in gene...acceleration/deceleration11,27 and blast4,13 have also been designed for the purpose of evaluating coup-contrecoup and blast wave energies potentially... evaluation of different angles/ locations of the projectile impact to the surface of the rat head. Finally, pilot studies were conducted to provide further

Estimation of a Constant False Alarm Rate Processing Loss for a High-Resolution Maritime Radar System

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

a sample with clutter of mean level y0 and noise of variance σ 2, with a threshold CACA zt β= . Using the results presented in [15, 16, 23], it can...level y0 and noise of variance σ 2, with a threshold CACA zt β= . Using (3.107) and (3.98), the expression for the expected Pd of a Swerling 2 target can

Imagery Ability and Task Performance.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-24

expected both the reaction times and the error rates to be higher for the more difficult trials on each dimension, and this was true in the curvature and... true and two false assertions about "* the spatial relationships between the shapes in that particular 13 configuration. An example of one...the shapes, the shapes were returned to the experimenter and the subject was given a booklet containing the ten descriptions, each on a separate page

Assessment of rates of recanting and hair testing as a biological measure of drug use in a general population sample of young people.

PubMed

Taylor, Michelle; Sullivan, John; Ring, Susan M; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew

2017-03-01

We investigate the extent of and factors associated with denial of previously reported cannabis and other illicit drug use, and assess the potential of hair testing for measuring substance use in general population samples. Birth cohort study. United Kingdom, 1991-present. A total of 3643 participants who provided hair and self-report measures of cannabis and other illicit drug use in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) at age 18 years. Denial of ever use of cannabis and other illicit drugs at age 18 following previously reported use. Positive hair drug tests for cannabis and other illicit drugs, and expected numbers of false positives and false negatives based on expected sensitivity and specificity. Cannabis and other illicit drug use was reported by 1223 and 393 individuals, respectively, before age 18 years. Of these 176 (14.4%) and 99 (25.2%), respectively, denied use at age 18. Denial of cannabis use decreased with the reporting of other substances and antisocial behaviour. Cannabis and other illicit drug use at age 18 was reported by 547 (22.5%) and 203 (8.4%) individuals, respectively. Of these, 111 (20.3%) and 13 (6.4%) were hair-positive for cannabis and other illicit drugs, respectively. Based on hair testing for cannabis use we expect 0 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0-169] false positives and 394 (95% CI = 323-449) false negatives compared to observed 362 potential false positives and 436 potential false negatives based on self-report. In hair-positive individuals, reporting the use of other substances and antisocial behaviour decreased the odds of a negative self-report. Hair analysis provides an unreliable marker of substance use in general population samples. People who report more frequent substance use before age 18 are less likely to later deny previous substance use at age 18 than people who report occasional use. © 2016 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

Assessment of rates of recanting and hair testing as a biological measure of drug use in a general population sample of young people

PubMed Central

Sullivan, John; Ring, Susan M.; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew

2016-01-01

Abstract Aims We investigate the extent of and factors associated with denial of previously reported cannabis and other illicit drug use, and assess the potential of hair testing for measuring substance use in general population samples. Design Birth cohort study. Setting United Kingdom, 1991–present. Participants A total of 3643 participants who provided hair and self‐report measures of cannabis and other illicit drug use in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) at age 18 years. Measurements Denial of ever use of cannabis and other illicit drugs at age 18 following previously reported use. Positive hair drug tests for cannabis and other illicit drugs, and expected numbers of false positives and false negatives based on expected sensitivity and specificity. Findings Cannabis and other illicit drug use was reported by 1223 and 393 individuals, respectively, before age 18 years. Of these 176 (14.4%) and 99 (25.2%), respectively, denied use at age 18. Denial of cannabis use decreased with the reporting of other substances and antisocial behaviour. Cannabis and other illicit drug use at age 18 was reported by 547 (22.5%) and 203 (8.4%) individuals, respectively. Of these, 111 (20.3%) and 13 (6.4%) were hair‐positive for cannabis and other illicit drugs, respectively. Based on hair testing for cannabis use we expect 0 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0–169] false positives and 394 (95% CI = 323–449) false negatives compared to observed 362 potential false positives and 436 potential false negatives based on self‐report. In hair‐positive individuals, reporting the use of other substances and antisocial behaviour decreased the odds of a negative self‐report. Conclusions Hair analysis provides an unreliable marker of substance use in general population samples. People who report more frequent substance use before age 18 are less likely to later deny previous substance use at age 18 than people who report occasional use. PMID:27743424

New Constraints on the False Positive Rate for Short-Period Kepler Planet Candidates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colón, Knicole D.; Morehead, Robert C.; Ford, Eric B.

2015-01-01

The Kepler space mission has discovered thousands of potential planets orbiting other stars, thereby setting the stage for in-depth studies of different populations of planets. We present new multi-wavelength transit photometry of small (Rp < 6 Earth radii), short-period (P < 6 days) Kepler planet candidates acquired with the Gran Telescopio Canarias. Multi-wavelength transit photometry allows us to search for wavelength-dependent transit depths and subsequently identify eclipsing binary false positives (which are especially prevalent at the shortest orbital periods). We combine these new observations of three candidates with previous results for five other candidates (Colón & Ford 2011 and Colón, Ford, & Morehead 2012) to provide new constraints on the false positive rate for small, close-in candidates. In our full sample, we identify four candidates as viable planets and four as eclipsing binary false positives. We therefore find a higher false positive rate for small, close-in candidates compared to the lower false positive rate of ~10% determined by other studies for the full sample of Kepler planet candidates (e.g. Fressin et al. 2013). We also discuss the dearth of known planets with periods less than ~2.5 days and radii between ~3 and 11 Earth radii (the so-called 'sub-Jovian desert'), since the majority of the candidates in our study are located in or around this 'desert.' The lack of planets with these orbital and physical properties is not expected to be due to observational bias, as short-period planets are generally easier to detect (especially if they are larger or more massive than Earth). We consider the implications of our results for the other ~20 Kepler planet candidates located in this desert. Characterizing these candidates will allow us to better understand the formation processes of this apparently rare class of planets.

The Occurrence Rate of Hot Jupiters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rampalli, Rayna; Catanzarite, Joseph; Batalha, Natalie M.

2017-01-01

As the first kind of exoplanet to be discovered, hot Jupiters have always been objects of interest. Despite being prevalent in radial velocity and ground-based surveys, they were found to be much rarer based on Kepler observations. These data show a pile-up at radii of 9-22 Rearth and orbital periods of 1-10 days. Computing accurate occurrence rates can lend insight into planet-formation and migration-theories. To get a more accurate look, the idea of reliability was introduced. Each hot Jupiter candidate was assigned a reliability based on its location in the galactic plane and likelihood of being a false positive. Numbers were updated if ground-based follow-up indicated a candidate was indeed a false positive. These reliabilities were introduced into an occurrence rate calculation and yielded about a 12% decrease in occurrence rate for each period bin examined and a 25% decrease across all the bins. To get a better idea of the cause behind the pileup, occurrence rates based on parent stellar metallicity were calculated. As expected from previous work, higher metallicity stars yield higher occurrence rates. Future work includes examining period distributions in both the high metallicity and low metallicity sample for a better understanding and confirmation of the pile-up effect.

Epidemiological Follow-up 15 Years after the Breast Cancer Scandal in Essen

PubMed Central

Hauth, E. A. M.; Berkemeyer, S.; Jaeger, H.; Forsting, M.; Hoffmann, B.; Jöckel, K.-H.

2012-01-01

Purpose: In the years 1993–1996 a number of presumably false-positive breast cancer diagnoses were made by a pathologist in Essen. A follow-up, undertaken 15 years later, investigated how many women had tumour recurrence and/or metastasis or had died from breast cancer. Material and Methods: A total of 151 (68 %) out of 222 women could be traced. One hundred and forty-seven (66.2 %) of the 222 women were alive. The observed survival rate, number of recurrences and/or metastases, and number of deaths from breast cancer were compared with data from the Munich Tumour Registry. The number of breast cancer cases among daughters of the affected women was ascertained. Results: The total observed survival rate at follow-up after 15 years was 93 %, a much higher figure than the survival rate of 45 % given by the Munich Tumour Registry. Recurrence and/or metastasis or death from breast cancer occurred in 9/222 cases (4.1 %). The incidence for these events calculated according to data from the Munich Tumour Registry is 13 %. Two daughters (2.2 %) out of a total of 90 were diagnosed with breast cancer whereas, according to the German Cancer Research Centre, the expected rate would have been between 5 and 10 %. Conclusions: The results of our follow-up after 15 years show that more women survived than expected and that the number of recurrences and/or metastases and deaths due to breast cancer was lower than expected. Fewer daughters of affected women were diagnosed with breast cancer than expected. These results support our suspicion that not all women diagnosed with breast cancer by a pathologist in Essen actually had breast cancer. PMID:25284840

Linear Mode HgCdTe Avalanche Photodiodes for Photon Counting Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, William, III; Beck, Jeffrey; Scritchfield, Richard; Skokan, Mark; Mitra, Pradip; Sun, Xiaoli; Abshire, James; Carpenter, Darren; Lane, Barry

2015-01-01

An overview of recent improvements in the understanding and maturity of linear mode photon counting with HgCdTe electron-initiated avalanche photodiodes is presented. The first HgCdTe LMPC 2x8 format array fabricated in 2011 with 64 micron pitch was a remarkable success in terms of demonstrating a high single photon signal to noise ratio of 13.7 with an excess noise factor of 1.3-1.4, a 7 ns minimum time between events, and a broad spectral response extending from 0.4 micron to 4.2 micron. The main limitations were a greater than 10x higher false event rate than expected of greater than 1 MHz, a 5-7x lower than expected APD gain, and a photon detection efficiency of only 50% when greater than 60% was expected. This paper discusses the reasons behind these limitations and the implementation of their mitigations with new results.

When the Single Matters more than the Group (II): Addressing the Problem of High False Positive Rates in Single Case Voxel Based Morphometry Using Non-parametric Statistics.

PubMed

Scarpazza, Cristina; Nichols, Thomas E; Seramondi, Donato; Maumet, Camille; Sartori, Giuseppe; Mechelli, Andrea

2016-01-01

In recent years, an increasing number of studies have used Voxel Based Morphometry (VBM) to compare a single patient with a psychiatric or neurological condition of interest against a group of healthy controls. However, the validity of this approach critically relies on the assumption that the single patient is drawn from a hypothetical population with a normal distribution and variance equal to that of the control group. In a previous investigation, we demonstrated that family-wise false positive error rate (i.e., the proportion of statistical comparisons yielding at least one false positive) in single case VBM are much higher than expected (Scarpazza et al., 2013). Here, we examine whether the use of non-parametric statistics, which does not rely on the assumptions of normal distribution and equal variance, would enable the investigation of single subjects with good control of false positive risk. We empirically estimated false positive rates (FPRs) in single case non-parametric VBM, by performing 400 statistical comparisons between a single disease-free individual and a group of 100 disease-free controls. The impact of smoothing (4, 8, and 12 mm) and type of pre-processing (Modulated, Unmodulated) was also examined, as these factors have been found to influence FPRs in previous investigations using parametric statistics. The 400 statistical comparisons were repeated using two independent, freely available data sets in order to maximize the generalizability of the results. We found that the family-wise error rate was 5% for increases and 3.6% for decreases in one data set; and 5.6% for increases and 6.3% for decreases in the other data set (5% nominal). Further, these results were not dependent on the level of smoothing and modulation. Therefore, the present study provides empirical evidence that single case VBM studies with non-parametric statistics are not susceptible to high false positive rates. The critical implication of this finding is that VBM can be used to characterize neuroanatomical alterations in individual subjects as long as non-parametric statistics are employed.

Highway deaths: false PR on the effects of PR.

PubMed

Robertson, L S

1994-01-01

In June, 1988, the Department of Public Safety (DPS) in South Carolina launched a media campaign, called "Highways or Dieways?", in an attempt to reduce motor vehicle fatalities. Deaths per vehicle mile declined during the succeeding years and the DPS attributed all of the reduction to the campaign, gleaning some 62 awards in the process. This research indicates that the DPS took credit for a decline in fatalities that resulted from other factors. Fatality rates in South Carolina were actually higher during the campaign than would have been expected from the historic association of South Carolina's rates with the national rate or those of other states in the region. The campaign actually illustrates the principle that ad campaigns alone are often ineffective in changing public health.

Genetic correlation between amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and schizophrenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, Russell L.; Schijven, Dick; van Rheenen, Wouter; van Eijk, Kristel R.; O'Brien, Margaret; Kahn, René S.; Ophoff, Roel A.; Goris, An; Bradley, Daniel G.; Al-Chalabi, Ammar; van den Berg, Leonard H.; Luykx, Jurjen J.; Hardiman, Orla; Veldink, Jan H.; Shatunov, Aleksey; Dekker, Annelot M.; Diekstra, Frank P.; Pulit, Sara L.; van der Spek, Rick A. A.; van Doormaal, Perry T. C.; Sproviero, William; Jones, Ashley R.; Nicholson, Garth A.; Rowe, Dominic B.; Pamphlett, Roger; Kiernan, Matthew C.; Bauer, Denis; Kahlke, Tim; Williams, Kelly; Eftimov, Filip; Fogh, Isabella; Ticozzi, Nicola; Lin, Kuang; Millecamps, Stéphanie; Salachas, François; Meininger, Vincent; de Carvalho, Mamede; Pinto, Susana; Mora, Jesus S.; Rojas-García, Ricardo; Polak, Meraida; Chandran, Siddharthan; Colville, Shuna; Swingler, Robert; Morrison, Karen E.; Shaw, Pamela J.; Hardy, John; Orrell, Richard W.; Pittman, Alan; Sidle, Katie; Fratta, Pietro; Malaspina, Andrea; Petri, Susanne; Abdulla, Susanna; Drepper, Carsten; Sendtner, Michael; Meyer, Thomas; Wiedau-Pazos, Martina; Lomen-Hoerth, Catherine; van Deerlin, Vivianna M.; Trojanowski, John Q.; Elman, Lauren; McCluskey, Leo; Basak, Nazli; Meitinger, Thomas; Lichtner, Peter; Blagojevic-Radivojkov, Milena; Andres, Christian R.; Maurel, Cindy; Bensimon, Gilbert; Landwehrmeyer, Bernhard; Brice, Alexis; Payan, Christine A. M.; Saker-Delye, Safa; Dürr, Alexandra; Wood, Nicholas; Tittmann, Lukas; Lieb, Wolfgang; Franke, Andre; Rietschel, Marcella; Cichon, Sven; Nöuthen, Markus M.; Amouyel, Philippe; Tzourio, Christophe; Dartigues, Jean-François; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Estrada, Karol; Hofman, Albert; Curtis, Charles; van der Kooi, Anneke J.; de Visser, Marianne; Weber, Markus; Shaw, Christopher E.; Smith, Bradley N.; Pansarasa, Orietta; Cereda, Cristina; Del Bo, Roberto; Comi, Giacomo P.; D'Alfonso, Sandra; Bertolin, Cinzia; Sorarù, Gianni; Mazzini, Letizia; Pensato, Viviana; Gellera, Cinzia; Tiloca, Cinzia; Ratti, Antonia; Calvo, Andrea; Moglia, Cristina; Brunetti, Maura; Arcuti, Simon; Capozzo, Rosa; Zecca, Chiara; Lunetta, Christian; Penco, Silvana; Riva, Nilo; Padovani, Alessandro; Filosto, Massimiliano; Blair, Ian; Leigh, P. Nigel; Casale, Federico; Chio, Adriano; Beghi, Ettore; Pupillo, Elisabetta; Tortelli, Rosanna; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Powell, John; Ludolph, Albert C.; Weishaupt, Jochen H.; Robberecht, Wim; van Damme, Philip; Brown, Robert H.; Glass, Jonathan; Landers, John E.; Andersen, Peter M.; Corcia, Philippe; Vourc'h, Patrick; Silani, Vincenzo; van Es, Michael A.; Pasterkamp, R. Jeroen; Lewis, Cathryn M.; Breen, Gerome; Ripke, Stephan; Neale, Benjamin M.; Corvin, Aiden; Walters, James T. R.; Farh, Kai-How; Holmans, Peter A.; Lee, Phil; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Collier, David A.; Huang, Hailiang; Pers, Tune H.; Agartz, Ingrid; Agerbo, Esben; Albus, Margot; Alexander, Madeline; Amin, Farooq; Bacanu, Silviu A.; Begemann, Martin; Belliveau, Richard A.; Bene, Judit; Bergen, Sarah E.; Bevilacqua, Elizabeth; Bigdeli, Tim B.; Black, Donald W.; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buckner, Randy L.; Byerley, William; Cahn, Wiepke; Cai, Guiqing; Campion, Dominique; Cantor, Rita M.; Carr, Vaughan J.; Carrera, Noa; Catts, Stanley V.; Chambert, Kimberley D.; Chan, Raymond C. K.; Chan, Ronald Y. L.; Chen, Eric Y. H.; Cheng, Wei; Cheung, Eric F. C.; Chong, Siow Ann; Cloninger, C. Robert; Cohen, David; Cohen, Nadine; Cormican, Paul; Craddock, Nick; Crowley, James J.; Curtis, David; Davidson, Michael; Davis, Kenneth L.; Degenhardt, Franziska; Del Favero, Jurgen; Demontis, Ditte; Dikeos, Dimitris; Dinan, Timothy; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drapeau, Elodie; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Durmishi, Naser; Eichhammer, Peter; Eriksson, Johan; Escott-Price, Valentina; Essioux, Laurent; Fanous, Ayman H.; Farrell, Martilias S.; Frank, Josef; Franke, Lude; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Friedl, Marion; Friedman, Joseph I.; Fromer, Menachem; Genovese, Giulio; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Giegling, Ina; Giusti-Rodríguez, Paola; Godard, Stephanie; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Golimbet, Vera; Gopal, Srihari; Gratten, Jacob; de Haan, Lieuwe; Hammer, Christian; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Mark; Hansen, Thomas; Haroutunian, Vahram; Hartmann, Annette M.; Henskens, Frans A.; Herms, Stefan; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Hoffmann, Per; Hofman, Andrea; Hollegaard, Mads V.; Hougaard, David M.; Ikeda, Masashi; Joa, Inge; Julià, Antonio; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Karachanak-Yankova, Sena; Karjalainen, Juha; Kavanagh, David; Keller, Matthew C.; Kennedy, James L.; Khrunin, Andrey; Kim, Yunjung; Klovins, Janis; Knowles, James A.; Konte, Bettina; Kucinskas, Vaidutis; Kucinskiene, Zita Ausrele; Kuzelova-Ptackova, Hana; Kähler, Anna K.; Laurent, Claudine; Lee, Jimmy; Lee, S. Hong; Legge, Sophie E.; Lerer, Bernard; Li, Miaoxin; Li, Tao; Liang, Kung-Yee; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Limborska, Svetlana; Loughland, Carmel M.; Lubinski, Jan; Lönnqvist, Jouko; Macek, Milan; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Maher, Brion S.; Maier, Wolfgang; Mallet, Jacques; Marsal, Sara; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarley, Robert W.; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M.; Meier, Sandra; Meijer, Carin J.; Melegh, Bela; Melle, Ingrid; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I.; Metspalu, Andres; Michie, Patricia T.; Milani, Lili; Milanova, Vihra; Mokrab, Younes; Morris, Derek W.; Mors, Ole; Murphy, Kieran C.; Murray, Robin M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nelis, Mari; Nenadic, Igor; Nertney, Deborah A.; Nestadt, Gerald; Nicodemus, Kristin K.; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Nisenbaum, Laura; Nordin, Annelie; O'Callaghan, Eadbhard; O'Dushlaine, Colm; O'Neill, F. Anthony; Oh, Sang-Yun; Olincy, Ann; Olsen, Line; van Os, Jim; Pantelis, Christos; Papadimitriou, George N.; Papiol, Sergi; Parkhomenko, Elena; Pato, Michele T.; Paunio, Tiina; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Perkins, Diana O.; Pietiläinen, Olli; Pimm, Jonathan; Pocklington, Andrew J.; Price, Alkes; Pulver, Ann E.; Purcell, Shaun M.; Quested, Digby; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Reichenberg, Abraham; Reimers, Mark A.; Richards, Alexander L.; Roffman, Joshua L.; Roussos, Panos; Ruderfer, Douglas M.; Salomaa, Veikko; Sanders, Alan R.; Schall, Ulrich; Schubert, Christian R.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schwab, Sibylle G.; Scolnick, Edward M.; Scott, Rodney J.; Seidman, Larry J.; Shi, Jianxin; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sim, Kang; Slominsky, Petr; Smoller, Jordan W.; So, Hon-Cheong; Spencer, Chris C. A.; Stahl, Eli A.; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stogmann, Elisabeth; Straub, Richard E.; Strengman, Eric; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Subramaniam, Mythily; Suvisaari, Jaana; Svrakic, Dragan M.; Szatkiewicz, Jin P.; Söderman, Erik; Thirumalai, Srinivas; Toncheva, Draga; Tosato, Sarah; Veijola, Juha; Waddington, John; Walsh, Dermot; Wang, Dai; Wang, Qiang; Webb, Bradley T.; Weiser, Mark; Wildenauer, Dieter B.; Williams, Nigel M.; Williams, Stephanie; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wolen, Aaron R.; Wong, Emily H. M.; Wormley, Brandon K.; Xi, Hualin Simon; Zai, Clement C.; Zheng, Xuebin; Zimprich, Fritz; Wray, Naomi R.; Stefansson, Kari; Visscher, Peter M.; Adolfsson, Rolf; Andreassen, Ole A.; Blackwood, Douglas H. R.; Bramon, Elvira; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Børglum, Anders D.; Darvasi, Ariel; Domenici, Enrico; Ehrenreich, Hannelore; Esko, Tõnu; Gejman, Pablo V.; Gill, Michael; Gurling, Hugh; Hultman, Christina M.; Iwata, Nakao; Jablensky, Assen V.; Jönsson, Erik G.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kirov, George; Knight, Jo; Lencz, Todd; Levinson, Douglas F.; Li, Qingqin S.; Liu, Jianjun; Malhotra, Anil K.; McCarroll, Steven A.; McQuillin, Andrew; Moran, Jennifer L.; Mortensen, Preben B.; Mowry, Bryan J.; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Pato, Carlos N.; Petryshen, Tracey L.; Posthuma, Danielle; Riley, Brien P.; Rujescu, Dan; Sham, Pak C.; Sklar, Pamela; St Clair, David; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Wendland, Jens R.; Werge, Thomas; Daly, Mark J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; O'Donovan, Michael C.

2017-03-01

We have previously shown higher-than-expected rates of schizophrenia in relatives of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), suggesting an aetiological relationship between the diseases. Here, we investigate the genetic relationship between ALS and schizophrenia using genome-wide association study data from over 100,000 unique individuals. Using linkage disequilibrium score regression, we estimate the genetic correlation between ALS and schizophrenia to be 14.3% (7.05-21.6 P=1 × 10-4) with schizophrenia polygenic risk scores explaining up to 0.12% of the variance in ALS (P=8.4 × 10-7). A modest increase in comorbidity of ALS and schizophrenia is expected given these findings (odds ratio 1.08-1.26) but this would require very large studies to observe epidemiologically. We identify five potential novel ALS-associated loci using conditional false discovery rate analysis. It is likely that shared neurobiological mechanisms between these two disorders will engender novel hypotheses in future preclinical and clinical studies.

Genetic correlation between amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and schizophrenia.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Russell L; Schijven, Dick; van Rheenen, Wouter; van Eijk, Kristel R; O'Brien, Margaret; Kahn, René S; Ophoff, Roel A; Goris, An; Bradley, Daniel G; Al-Chalabi, Ammar; van den Berg, Leonard H; Luykx, Jurjen J; Hardiman, Orla; Veldink, Jan H

2017-03-21

We have previously shown higher-than-expected rates of schizophrenia in relatives of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), suggesting an aetiological relationship between the diseases. Here, we investigate the genetic relationship between ALS and schizophrenia using genome-wide association study data from over 100,000 unique individuals. Using linkage disequilibrium score regression, we estimate the genetic correlation between ALS and schizophrenia to be 14.3% (7.05-21.6; P=1 × 10 -4 ) with schizophrenia polygenic risk scores explaining up to 0.12% of the variance in ALS (P=8.4 × 10 -7 ). A modest increase in comorbidity of ALS and schizophrenia is expected given these findings (odds ratio 1.08-1.26) but this would require very large studies to observe epidemiologically. We identify five potential novel ALS-associated loci using conditional false discovery rate analysis. It is likely that shared neurobiological mechanisms between these two disorders will engender novel hypotheses in future preclinical and clinical studies.

Combining Gravitational Wave Events with their Electromagnetic Counterparts: A Realistic Joint False-Alarm Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackley, Kendall; Eikenberry, Stephen; Klimenko, Sergey; LIGO Team

2017-01-01

We present a false-alarm rate for a joint detection of gravitational wave (GW) events and associated electromagnetic (EM) counterparts for Advanced LIGO and Virgo (LV) observations during the first years of operation. Using simulated GW events and their recostructed probability skymaps, we tile over the error regions using sets of archival wide-field telescope survey images and recover the number of astrophysical transients to be expected during LV-EM followup. With the known GW event injection coordinates we inject artificial electromagnetic (EM) sources at that site based on theoretical and observational models on a one-to-one basis. We calculate the EM false-alarm probability using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm based on shapelet analysis which has shown to be a strong discriminator between astrophysical transients and image artifacts while reducing the set of transients to be manually vetted by five orders of magnitude. We also show the performance of our method in context with other machine-learned transient classification and reduction algorithms, showing comparability without the need for a large set of training data opening the possibility for next-generation telescopes to take advantage of this pipeline for LV-EM followup missions.

False-negative rate cannot be reduced by lowering the haemoglobin concentration cut-off in colorectal cancer screening using faecal immunochemical test.

PubMed

Ibañez-Sanz, Gemma; Garcia, Montse; Milà, Núria; Rodríguez-Moranta, Francisco; Binefa, Gemma; Gómez-Matas, Javier; Benito, Llúcia; Padrol, Isabel; Barenys, Mercè; Moreno, Victor

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to analyse false-negative (FN) results of the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) and its determinants in a colorectal cancer screening programme in Catalonia. We carried out a cross-sectional study among 218 screenees with a negative FIT result who agreed to undergo a colonoscopy. A false-negative result was defined as the detection, at colonoscopy, of intermediate/high-risk polyps or colorectal cancer in a patient with a previous negative FIT (<20 µgHb/g). Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to identify sociodemographic (sex, age) and screening variables (quantitative faecal haemoglobin, colonoscopy findings) related to FN results. Adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated. There were 15.6% FN FIT results. Faecal haemoglobin was undetected in 45.5% of these results and was below 4 µgHb/g in 94.0% of the individuals with a FN result. About 60% of the lesions were located in the proximal colon, whereas the expected percentage was 30%. Decreasing the positivity threshold of FIT does not increase the detection rate of advanced neoplasia, but may increase the costs and potential adverse effects.

A survey of computational methods and error rate estimation procedures for peptide and protein identification in shotgun proteomics

PubMed Central

Nesvizhskii, Alexey I.

2010-01-01

This manuscript provides a comprehensive review of the peptide and protein identification process using tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) data generated in shotgun proteomic experiments. The commonly used methods for assigning peptide sequences to MS/MS spectra are critically discussed and compared, from basic strategies to advanced multi-stage approaches. A particular attention is paid to the problem of false-positive identifications. Existing statistical approaches for assessing the significance of peptide to spectrum matches are surveyed, ranging from single-spectrum approaches such as expectation values to global error rate estimation procedures such as false discovery rates and posterior probabilities. The importance of using auxiliary discriminant information (mass accuracy, peptide separation coordinates, digestion properties, and etc.) is discussed, and advanced computational approaches for joint modeling of multiple sources of information are presented. This review also includes a detailed analysis of the issues affecting the interpretation of data at the protein level, including the amplification of error rates when going from peptide to protein level, and the ambiguities in inferring the identifies of sample proteins in the presence of shared peptides. Commonly used methods for computing protein-level confidence scores are discussed in detail. The review concludes with a discussion of several outstanding computational issues. PMID:20816881

Grouped fuzzy SVM with EM-based partition of sample space for clustered microcalcification detection.

PubMed

Wang, Huiya; Feng, Jun; Wang, Hongyu

2017-07-20

Detection of clustered microcalcification (MC) from mammograms plays essential roles in computer-aided diagnosis for early stage breast cancer. To tackle problems associated with the diversity of data structures of MC lesions and the variability of normal breast tissues, multi-pattern sample space learning is required. In this paper, a novel grouped fuzzy Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm with sample space partition based on Expectation-Maximization (EM) (called G-FSVM) is proposed for clustered MC detection. The diversified pattern of training data is partitioned into several groups based on EM algorithm. Then a series of fuzzy SVM are integrated for classification with each group of samples from the MC lesions and normal breast tissues. From DDSM database, a total of 1,064 suspicious regions are selected from 239 mammography, and the measurement of Accuracy, True Positive Rate (TPR), False Positive Rate (FPR) and EVL = TPR* 1-FPR are 0.82, 0.78, 0.14 and 0.72, respectively. The proposed method incorporates the merits of fuzzy SVM and multi-pattern sample space learning, decomposing the MC detection problem into serial simple two-class classification. Experimental results from synthetic data and DDSM database demonstrate that our integrated classification framework reduces the false positive rate significantly while maintaining the true positive rate.

Azithromycin treatment failure for Chlamydia trachomatis among heterosexual men with nongonococcal urethritis

PubMed Central

Kissinger, Patricia; White, Scott; Manhart, Lisa E.; Schwebke, Jane; Taylor, Stephanie N; Mena, Leandro; Khosropour, Christine M; Wilcox, Larissa; Schmidt, Norine; Martin, David H

2016-01-01

Background Three recent prospective studies have suggested that the 1 g dose of azithromycin for Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) was less effective than expected, reporting a wide range of treatment failure rates (5.8%–22.6%). Reasons for the disparate results could be attributed to geographic or methodological differences. The purpose of this study was to re-examine the studies and attempt to harmonize methodologies to reduce misclassification as a result of false positives from early test-of-cure (TOC) or reinfection as a result of sexual exposure rather than treatment failure. Methods Men who had sex with women, who received 1 g azithromycin under directly observed therapy (DOT) for presumptive treatment of nongonococcal urethritis (NGU) with confirmed Ct were included. Baseline screening was performed on urethral swabs or urine and TOC screening was performed on urine using nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT). Post-treatment vaginal sexual exposure was elicited at TOC. Data from the three studies was obtained and re-analyzed. Rates of Ct re-test positive were examined for all cases and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to either reclassify potential false positives/reinfections as negative or remove them from the analysis. Results The crude treatment failure rate was 12.8% (31/242). The rate when potential false positives/reinfections were reclassified as negative was 6.2% (15/242) or when these were excluded from analysis was 10.9% (15/138). Conclusion In these samples of men who have sex with women with Ct-related NGU, azithromycin treatment failure was between 6.2% and 12.8%. This range of failure is lower than previously published but higher than the desired World Health Organization’s target chlamydia treatment failure rate of < 5%. PMID:27631353

Azithromycin Treatment Failure for Chlamydia trachomatis Among Heterosexual Men With Nongonococcal Urethritis.

PubMed

Kissinger, Patricia J; White, Scott; Manhart, Lisa E; Schwebke, Jane; Taylor, Stephanie N; Mena, Leandro; Khosropour, Christine M; Wilcox, Larissa; Schmidt, Norine; Martin, David H

2016-10-01

Three recent prospective studies have suggested that the 1-g dose of azithromycin for Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) was less effective than expected, reporting a wide range of treatment failure rates (5.8%-22.6%). Reasons for the disparate results could be attributed to geographic or methodological differences. The purpose of this study was to reexamine the studies and attempt to harmonize methodologies to reduce misclassification as a result of false positives from early test-of-cure (TOC) or reinfection as a result of sexual exposure rather than treatment failure. Men who had sex with women, who received 1-g azithromycin under directly observed therapy for presumptive treatment of nongonococcal urethritis with confirmed Ct were included. Baseline screening was performed on urethral swabs or urine, and TOC screening was performed on urine using nucleic acid amplification tests. Posttreatment vaginal sexual exposure was elicited at TOC. Data from the 3 studies were obtained and reanalyzed. Rates of Ct retest positive were examined for all cases, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to either reclassify potential false positives/reinfections as negative or remove them from the analysis. The crude treatment failure rate was 12.8% (31/242). The rate when potential false positives/reinfections were reclassified as negative was 6.2% (15/242) or when these were excluded from analysis was 10.9% (15/138). In these samples of men who have sex with women with Ct-related nongonococcal urethritis, azithromycin treatment failure was between 6.2% and 12.8%. This range of failure is lower than previously published but higher than the desired World Health Organization's target chlamydia treatment failure rate of < 5%.

Using monolingual neuropsychological test norms with bilingual Hispanic americans: application of an individual comparison standard.

PubMed

Gasquoine, Philip Gerard; Gonzalez, Cassandra Dayanira

2012-05-01

Conventional neuropsychological norms developed for monolinguals likely overestimate normal performance in bilinguals on language but not visual-perceptual format tests. This was studied by comparing neuropsychological false-positive rates using the 50th percentile of conventional norms and individual comparison standards (Picture Vocabulary or Matrix Reasoning scores) as estimates of preexisting neuropsychological skill level against the number expected from the normal distribution for a consecutive sample of 56 neurologically intact, bilingual, Hispanic Americans. Participants were tested in separate sessions in Spanish and English in the counterbalanced order on La Bateria Neuropsicologica and the original English language tests on which this battery was based. For language format measures, repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance showed that individual estimates of preexisting skill level in English generated the mean number of false positives most approximate to that expected from the normal distribution, whereas the 50th percentile of conventional English language norms did the same for visual-perceptual format measures. When using conventional Spanish or English monolingual norms for language format neuropsychological measures with bilingual Hispanic Americans, individual estimates of preexisting skill level are recommended over the 50th percentile.

Low-dose chest computed tomography for lung cancer screening among Hodgkin lymphoma survivors: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Wattson, Daniel A; Hunink, M G Myriam; DiPiro, Pamela J; Das, Prajnan; Hodgson, David C; Mauch, Peter M; Ng, Andrea K

2014-10-01

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors face an increased risk of treatment-related lung cancer. Screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) may allow detection of early stage, resectable cancers. We developed a Markov decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness model to estimate the merits of annual LDCT screening among HL survivors. Population databases and HL-specific literature informed key model parameters, including lung cancer rates and stage distribution, cause-specific survival estimates, and utilities. Relative risks accounted for radiation therapy (RT) technique, smoking status (>10 pack-years or current smokers vs not), age at HL diagnosis, time from HL treatment, and excess radiation from LDCTs. LDCT assumptions, including expected stage-shift, false-positive rates, and likely additional workup were derived from the National Lung Screening Trial and preliminary results from an internal phase 2 protocol that performed annual LDCTs in 53 HL survivors. We assumed a 3% discount rate and a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Annual LDCT screening was cost effective for all smokers. A male smoker treated with mantle RT at age 25 achieved maximum QALYs by initiating screening 12 years post-HL, with a life expectancy benefit of 2.1 months and an incremental cost of $34,841/QALY. Among nonsmokers, annual screening produced a QALY benefit in some cases, but the incremental cost was not below the WTP threshold for any patient subsets. As age at HL diagnosis increased, earlier initiation of screening improved outcomes. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates and expected stage-shift from screening. HL survivors are an important high-risk population that may benefit from screening, especially those treated in the past with large radiation fields including mantle or involved-field RT. Screening may be cost effective for all smokers but possibly not for nonsmokers despite a small life expectancy benefit. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parametric vs. non-parametric statistics of low resolution electromagnetic tomography (LORETA).

PubMed

Thatcher, R W; North, D; Biver, C

2005-01-01

This study compared the relative statistical sensitivity of non-parametric and parametric statistics of 3-dimensional current sources as estimated by the EEG inverse solution Low Resolution Electromagnetic Tomography (LORETA). One would expect approximately 5% false positives (classification of a normal as abnormal) at the P < .025 level of probability (two tailed test) and approximately 1% false positives at the P < .005 level. EEG digital samples (2 second intervals sampled 128 Hz, 1 to 2 minutes eyes closed) from 43 normal adult subjects were imported into the Key Institute's LORETA program. We then used the Key Institute's cross-spectrum and the Key Institute's LORETA output files (*.lor) as the 2,394 gray matter pixel representation of 3-dimensional currents at different frequencies. The mean and standard deviation *.lor files were computed for each of the 2,394 gray matter pixels for each of the 43 subjects. Tests of Gaussianity and different transforms were computed in order to best approximate a normal distribution for each frequency and gray matter pixel. The relative sensitivity of parametric vs. non-parametric statistics were compared using a "leave-one-out" cross validation method in which individual normal subjects were withdrawn and then statistically classified as being either normal or abnormal based on the remaining subjects. Log10 transforms approximated Gaussian distribution in the range of 95% to 99% accuracy. Parametric Z score tests at P < .05 cross-validation demonstrated an average misclassification rate of approximately 4.25%, and range over the 2,394 gray matter pixels was 27.66% to 0.11%. At P < .01 parametric Z score cross-validation false positives were 0.26% and ranged from 6.65% to 0% false positives. The non-parametric Key Institute's t-max statistic at P < .05 had an average misclassification error rate of 7.64% and ranged from 43.37% to 0.04% false positives. The nonparametric t-max at P < .01 had an average misclassification rate of 6.67% and ranged from 41.34% to 0% false positives of the 2,394 gray matter pixels for any cross-validated normal subject. In conclusion, adequate approximation to Gaussian distribution and high cross-validation can be achieved by the Key Institute's LORETA programs by using a log10 transform and parametric statistics, and parametric normative comparisons had lower false positive rates than the non-parametric tests.

RATIR Follow-up of LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golkhou, V. Zach; Butler, Nathaniel R.; Strausbaugh, Robert; Troja, Eleonora; Kutyrev, Alexander; Lee, William H.; Román-Zúñiga, Carlos G.; Watson, Alan M.

2018-04-01

We have recently witnessed the first multi-messenger detection of colliding neutron stars through gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic (EM) waves (GW 170817) thanks to the joint efforts of LIGO/Virgo and Space/Ground-based telescopes. In this paper, we report on the RATIR follow-up observation strategies and show the results for the trigger G194575. This trigger is not of astrophysical interest; however, it is of great interest to the robust design of a follow-up engine to explore large sky-error regions. We discuss the development of an image-subtraction pipeline for the six-color, optical/NIR imaging camera RATIR. Considering a two-band (i and r) campaign in the fall of 2015, we find that the requirement of simultaneous detection in both bands leads to a factor ∼10 reduction in false alarm rate, which can be further reduced using additional bands. We also show that the performance of our proposed algorithm is robust to fluctuating observing conditions, maintaining a low false alarm rate with a modest decrease in system efficiency that can be overcome utilizing repeat visits. Expanding our pipeline to search for either optical or NIR detections (three or more bands), considering separately the optical riZ and NIR YJH bands, should result in a false alarm rate ≈1% and an efficiency ≈90%. RATIR’s simultaneous optical/NIR observations are expected to yield about one candidate transient in the vast 100 deg2 LIGO error region for prioritized follow-up with larger aperture telescopes.

Pharmacovigilance data mining with methods based on false discovery rates: a comparative simulation study.

PubMed

Ahmed, I; Thiessard, F; Miremont-Salamé, G; Bégaud, B; Tubert-Bitter, P

2010-10-01

The early detection of adverse reactions caused by drugs that are already on the market is the prime concern of pharmacovigilance efforts; the methods in use for postmarketing surveillance are aimed at detecting signals pointing to potential safety concerns, on the basis of reports from health-care providers and from information available in various databases. Signal detection methods based on the estimation of false discovery rate (FDR) have recently been proposed. They address the limitation of arbitrary detection thresholds of the automatic methods in current use, including those last updated by the US Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization's Uppsala Monitoring Centre. We used two simulation procedures to compare the false-positive performances for three current methods: the reporting odds ratio (ROR), the information component (IC), the gamma Poisson shrinkage (GPS), and also for two FDR-based methods derived from the GPS model and Fisher's test. Large differences in FDR rates were associated with the signal-detection methods currently in use. These differences ranged from 0.01 to 12% in an analysis that was restricted to signals with at least three reports. The numbers of signals generated were also highly variable. Among fixed-size lists of signals, the FDR was lowered when the FDR-based approaches were used. Overall, the outcomes in both simulation studies suggest that improvement in effectiveness can be expected from use of the FDR-based GPS method.

34 CFR 690.13 - Notification of expected family contribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 34 Education 4 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Notification of expected family contribution. 690.13 Section 690.13 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF... for Determining Expected Family Contribution § 690.13 Notification of expected family contribution...

Occupancy models for data with false positive and false negative errors and heterogeneity across sites and surveys

Treesearch

Paige F.B. Ferguson; Michael J. Conroy; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman; Nigel Yoccoz

2015-01-01

False positive detections, such as species misidentifications, occur in ecological data, although many models do not account for them. Consequently, these models are expected to generate biased inference.The main challenge in an analysis of data with false positives is to distinguish false positive and false negative...

Pretense of parentage by siblings in immigration: Polesky's paradox reconsidered.

PubMed

Wenk, Robert E; Shao, Alison

2014-02-01

Older and younger siblings occasionally attempt to impersonate parent and child to expedite immigration under US family-based visa policies. The rate with which full siblings escape detection by current relationship tests is unknown. Retrospective study of full-sibling immigrant pairs was undertaken to determine the proportion that show insufficient genetic evidence to exclude parentage. Sibship and parentage indices (SI and PI) were compared/case in unexcluded sibling cases and true parent-child cases. Alleles shared per short-tandem-repeat locus were compared in sibling and parent-child pairs. The proportion of successful parentage fraud by siblings was estimated from the parentage exclusion rate among immigrants and the proportion of sibships without genetic inconsistencies (GIs). When 11 to 25 independent loci were tested per two-sibling case to verify or refute parentage, tests failed to demonstrate any GI in 9% and PI was greater than SI in seven of 10 of these cases. Another 29% of full-sibling pairs demonstrated insufficient evidence (fewer than two GIs) to exclude parentage. Thus, 0.4% of sibling pairs could falsely claim a parent-child relationship and show no GIs. Another 1.4% could make that false claim and not present sufficient evidence to be excluded. At present, with no evidence of parentage exclusion in a full-sibling pair, the relative magnitudes of PI and SI are misleading relationship indicators because too few loci are examined and rates of sharing one and two alleles/locus vary greatly in parentage and sibling pairs. Only evidence of exclusion ascertains false parentage claims by siblings. Nevertheless, the expected rate of successful fraud is quite low. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

34 CFR 690.13 - Notification of expected family contribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Notification of expected family contribution. 690.13... Determining Expected Family Contribution § 690.13 Notification of expected family contribution. The Secretary.... (Approved by the Office of Management and Budget under control number 1840-0681) (Authority: 20 U.S.C. 1070a...

Human versus automation in responding to failures: an expected-value analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheridan, T. B.; Parasuraman, R.

2000-01-01

A simple analytical criterion is provided for deciding whether a human or automation is best for a failure detection task. The method is based on expected-value decision theory in much the same way as is signal detection. It requires specification of the probabilities of misses (false negatives) and false alarms (false positives) for both human and automation being considered, as well as factors independent of the choice--namely, costs and benefits of incorrect and correct decisions as well as the prior probability of failure. The method can also serve as a basis for comparing different modes of automation. Some limiting cases of application are discussed, as are some decision criteria other than expected value. Actual or potential applications include the design and evaluation of any system in which either humans or automation are being considered.

Software for Quantifying and Simulating Microsatellite Genotyping Error

PubMed Central

Johnson, Paul C.D.; Haydon, Daniel T.

2007-01-01

Microsatellite genetic marker data are exploited in a variety of fields, including forensics, gene mapping, kinship inference and population genetics. In all of these fields, inference can be thwarted by failure to quantify and account for data errors, and kinship inference in particular can benefit from separating errors into two distinct classes: allelic dropout and false alleles. Pedant is MS Windows software for estimating locus-specific maximum likelihood rates of these two classes of error. Estimation is based on comparison of duplicate error-prone genotypes: neither reference genotypes nor pedigree data are required. Other functions include: plotting of error rate estimates and confidence intervals; simulations for performing power analysis and for testing the robustness of error rate estimates to violation of the underlying assumptions; and estimation of expected heterozygosity, which is a required input. The program, documentation and source code are available from http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/~paulj/pedant.html. PMID:20066126

Are subjective memory problems related to suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance?

PubMed

Van Bergen, Saskia; Jelicic, Marko; Merckelbach, Harald

2009-01-01

The relationship between subjective memory beliefs and suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance was studied in a community sample of young and middle-aged people (N = 142). We hypothesized that people with subjective memory problems would exhibit higher suggestibility and compliance levels and would be more susceptible to false recollections than those who are optimistic about their memory. In addition, we expected a discrepancy between subjective memory judgments and objective memory performance. We found that subjective memory judgments correlated significantly with compliance, with more negative memory judgments accompanying higher levels of compliance. Contrary to our expectation, subjective memory problems did not correlate with suggestibility or false recollections. Furthermore, participants were accurate in estimating their objective memory performance.

Impaired Context Processing is Attributable to Global Neuropsychological Impairment in Schizophrenia and Psychotic Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Hill, S. Kristian; Gold, James M.; Keefe, Richard S. E.; Clementz, Brett A.; Gershon, Elliot; Keshavan, Matcheri S.; Pearlson, Godfrey; Tamminga, Carol A.; Sweeney, John A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Context processing may reflect a specific cognitive impairment in schizophrenia. Whether impaired context processing is observed across psychotic disorders or among relatives of affected individuals, and whether it is a deficit that is independent from the generalized neuropsychological deficits seen in psychotic disorders, are less established. Methods: Schizophrenia, schizoaffective, and psychotic bipolar probands (n = 660), their first-degree relatives (n = 741), and healthy individuals (n = 308) studied by the Bipolar-Schizophrenia Network on Intermediate Phenotypes consortium performed an expectancy task requiring use of contextual information to overcome a pre-potent response. Sensitivity for target detection and false alarm rates on trials requiring inhibition or goal maintenance were measured. Results: Proband groups and relatives with psychosis spectrum personality traits demonstrated reduced target sensitivity and elevated false alarm rates. False alarm rate was higher under inhibition vs goal maintenance conditions although this difference was attenuated in schizophrenia and schizoaffective proband groups. After accounting for global neuropsychological impairment, as reflected by the composite score from the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia neuropsychological battery, deficits in schizophrenia and bipolar proband groups were no longer significant. Performance measures were moderately familial. Conclusion: Reduced target detection, but not a specific deficit in context processing, is observed across psychotic disorders. Impairments in both goal maintenance and response inhibition appear to contribute comparably to deficits in schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder, whereas greater difficulty with response inhibition underlies deficits in bipolar disorder. Yet, these deficits are not independent from the generalized neurocognitive impairment observed in schizophrenia and psychotic bipolar disorder. PMID:27306316

OPTIMAL TIME-SERIES SELECTION OF QUASARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Nathaniel R.; Bloom, Joshua S.

2011-03-15

We present a novel method for the optimal selection of quasars using time-series observations in a single photometric bandpass. Utilizing the damped random walk model of Kelly et al., we parameterize the ensemble quasar structure function in Sloan Stripe 82 as a function of observed brightness. The ensemble model fit can then be evaluated rigorously for and calibrated with individual light curves with no parameter fitting. This yields a classification in two statistics-one describing the fit confidence and the other describing the probability of a false alarm-which can be tuned, a priori, to achieve high quasar detection fractions (99% completenessmore » with default cuts), given an acceptable rate of false alarms. We establish the typical rate of false alarms due to known variable stars as {approx}<3% (high purity). Applying the classification, we increase the sample of potential quasars relative to those known in Stripe 82 by as much as 29%, and by nearly a factor of two in the redshift range 2.5 < z < 3, where selection by color is extremely inefficient. This represents 1875 new quasars in a 290 deg{sup 2} field. The observed rates of both quasars and stars agree well with the model predictions, with >99% of quasars exhibiting the expected variability profile. We discuss the utility of the method at high redshift and in the regime of noisy and sparse data. Our time-series selection complements well-independent selection based on quasar colors and has strong potential for identifying high-redshift quasars for Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and other cosmology studies in the LSST era.« less

Do juries meet our expectations?

PubMed

Arkes, Hal R; Mellers, Barbara A

2002-12-01

Surveys of public opinion indicate that people have high expectations for juries. When it comes to serious crimes, most people want errors of convicting the innocent (false positives) or acquitting the guilty (false negatives) to fall well below 10%. Using expected utility theory, Bayes' Theorem, signal detection theory, and empirical evidence from detection studies of medical decision making, eyewitness testimony, and weather forecasting, we argue that the frequency of mistakes probably far exceeds these "tolerable" levels. We are not arguing against the use of juries. Rather, we point out that a closer look at jury decisions reveals a serious gap between what we expect from juries and what probably occurs. When deciding issues of guilt and/or punishing convicted criminals, we as a society should recognize and acknowledge the abundance of error.

Low-Dose Chest Computed Tomography for Lung Cancer Screening Among Hodgkin Lymphoma Survivors: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wattson, Daniel A., E-mail: dwattson@partners.org; Hunink, M.G. Myriam; DiPiro, Pamela J.

2014-10-01

Purpose: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors face an increased risk of treatment-related lung cancer. Screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) may allow detection of early stage, resectable cancers. We developed a Markov decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness model to estimate the merits of annual LDCT screening among HL survivors. Methods and Materials: Population databases and HL-specific literature informed key model parameters, including lung cancer rates and stage distribution, cause-specific survival estimates, and utilities. Relative risks accounted for radiation therapy (RT) technique, smoking status (>10 pack-years or current smokers vs not), age at HL diagnosis, time from HL treatment, and excess radiation from LDCTs.more » LDCT assumptions, including expected stage-shift, false-positive rates, and likely additional workup were derived from the National Lung Screening Trial and preliminary results from an internal phase 2 protocol that performed annual LDCTs in 53 HL survivors. We assumed a 3% discount rate and a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Results: Annual LDCT screening was cost effective for all smokers. A male smoker treated with mantle RT at age 25 achieved maximum QALYs by initiating screening 12 years post-HL, with a life expectancy benefit of 2.1 months and an incremental cost of $34,841/QALY. Among nonsmokers, annual screening produced a QALY benefit in some cases, but the incremental cost was not below the WTP threshold for any patient subsets. As age at HL diagnosis increased, earlier initiation of screening improved outcomes. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates and expected stage-shift from screening. Conclusions: HL survivors are an important high-risk population that may benefit from screening, especially those treated in the past with large radiation fields including mantle or involved-field RT. Screening may be cost effective for all smokers but possibly not for nonsmokers despite a small life expectancy benefit.« less

Continuity from an Implicit to an Explicit Understanding of False Belief from Infancy to Preschool Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thoermer, Claudia; Sodian, Beate; Vuori, Maria; Perst, Hannah; Kristen, Susanne

2012-01-01

An implicit understanding of false belief indicated by anticipatory looking has been shown to be significantly correlated with performance on explicit false-belief tasks in 3- and 4-year-old children (Low, 2010). Recent evidence from infant research indicates, however, that implicit false-belief understanding guides infants' expectations about…

Are children conservative, liberal, or metacognitive? Preliminary evidence for the involvement of the distinctiveness heuristic in decision making.

PubMed

Geurten, Marie; Willems, Sylvie; Meulemans, Thierry

2015-04-01

The experiment tested whether young children are able to reduce their false recognition rate after distinctive encoding by implementing a strategic metacognitive rule. The participants, 72 children aged 4, 6, and 9 years, studied two lists of unrelated items. One of these lists was visually displayed (picture condition), whereas the other was presented auditorily (word condition). After each study phase, participants completed recognition tests. Finally, they answered questions about their explicit knowledge of the distinctive encoding effect. The results revealed that even the youngest children in our sample showed a smaller proportion of intrusions in the picture condition than in the word condition. Furthermore, the results of the signal detection analyses were consistent with the hypothesis that the lower rate of false recognitions after picture encoding results from the implementation of a conservative response criterion based on metacognitive expectations (distinctiveness heuristic). Moreover, the absence of correlation between children's explicit knowledge of the distinctiveness rule and their effective use of this metacognitive heuristic seems to indicate that its involvement in memory decisions could be mediated by implicit mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

LOW FALSE POSITIVE RATE OF KEPLER CANDIDATES ESTIMATED FROM A COMBINATION OF SPITZER AND FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Désert, Jean-Michel; Brown, Timothy M.; Charbonneau, David

NASA’s Kepler mission has provided several thousand transiting planet candidates during the 4 yr of its nominal mission, yet only a small subset of these candidates have been confirmed as true planets. Therefore, the most fundamental question about these candidates is the fraction of bona fide planets. Estimating the rate of false positives of the overall Kepler sample is necessary to derive the planet occurrence rate. We present the results from two large observational campaigns that were conducted with the Spitzer Space Telescope during the the Kepler mission. These observations are dedicated to estimating the false positive rate (FPR) amongmore » the Kepler candidates. We select a sub-sample of 51 candidates, spanning wide ranges in stellar, orbital, and planetary parameter space, and we observe their transits with Spitzer at 4.5 μm. We use these observations to measures the candidate’s transit depths and infrared magnitudes. An authentic planet produces an achromatic transit depth (neglecting the modest effect of limb darkening). Conversely a bandpass-dependent depth alerts us to the potential presence of a blending star that could be the source of the observed eclipse: a false positive scenario. For most of the candidates (85%), the transit depths measured with Kepler are consistent with the transit depths measured with Spitzer as expected for planetary objects, while we find that the most discrepant measurements are due to the presence of unresolved stars that dilute the photometry. The Spitzer constraints on their own yield FPRs between 5% and depending on the Kepler Objects of Interest. By considering the population of the Kepler field stars, and by combining follow-up observations (imaging) when available, we find that the overall FPR of our sample is low. The measured upper limit on the FPR of our sample is 8.8% at a confidence level of 3σ. This observational result, which uses the achromatic property of planetary transit signals that is not investigated by the Kepler observations, provides an independent indication that Kepler’s FPR is low.« less

Omitting details from post-event information: are true and false memory affected in the same way?

PubMed

Loehr, Janeen D; Marche, Tammy A

2006-01-01

Participants who witness an event and later receive post-event information that omits a critical scene are less likely to recall and to recognise that scene than are participants who receive no post-event information (Wright, Loftus, & Hall, 2001). The present study used the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm, in which participants study lists of semantic associates (e.g., hot, snow, warm, winter) that commonly elicit false memories of critical non-presented words (e.g., cold), to determine whether omitting information from a second presentation decreases memory for both presented and non-presented information. Participants were presented with a list of the semantic associates of six non-presented words. For half the participants, this list was presented a second time with the semantic associates of one of the non-presented words omitted. As expected, participants were less likely to recall and to recognise the presented words when they had been omitted from the second presentation. Omission also decreased the rate at which non-presented words were recalled, although false recognition of these words was not reduced. These results suggest that false recognition may be particularly difficult to attenuate and that post-event omission may be more detrimental to memory accuracy than previously thought.

Optimal False Discovery Rate Control for Dependent Data

PubMed Central

Xie, Jichun; Cai, T. Tony; Maris, John; Li, Hongzhe

2013-01-01

This paper considers the problem of optimal false discovery rate control when the test statistics are dependent. An optimal joint oracle procedure, which minimizes the false non-discovery rate subject to a constraint on the false discovery rate is developed. A data-driven marginal plug-in procedure is then proposed to approximate the optimal joint procedure for multivariate normal data. It is shown that the marginal procedure is asymptotically optimal for multivariate normal data with a short-range dependent covariance structure. Numerical results show that the marginal procedure controls false discovery rate and leads to a smaller false non-discovery rate than several commonly used p-value based false discovery rate controlling methods. The procedure is illustrated by an application to a genome-wide association study of neuroblastoma and it identifies a few more genetic variants that are potentially associated with neuroblastoma than several p-value-based false discovery rate controlling procedures. PMID:23378870

Experimental design and statistical methods for improved hit detection in high-throughput screening.

PubMed

Malo, Nathalie; Hanley, James A; Carlile, Graeme; Liu, Jing; Pelletier, Jerry; Thomas, David; Nadon, Robert

2010-09-01

Identification of active compounds in high-throughput screening (HTS) contexts can be substantially improved by applying classical experimental design and statistical inference principles to all phases of HTS studies. The authors present both experimental and simulated data to illustrate how true-positive rates can be maximized without increasing false-positive rates by the following analytical process. First, the use of robust data preprocessing methods reduces unwanted variation by removing row, column, and plate biases. Second, replicate measurements allow estimation of the magnitude of the remaining random error and the use of formal statistical models to benchmark putative hits relative to what is expected by chance. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses revealed superior power for data preprocessed by a trimmed-mean polish method combined with the RVM t-test, particularly for small- to moderate-sized biological hits.

Tables of square-law signal detection statistics for Hann spectra with 50 percent overlap

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deans, Stanley R.; Cullers, D. Kent

1991-01-01

The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, currently being planned by NASA, will require that an enormous amount of data be analyzed in real time by special purpose hardware. It is expected that overlapped Hann data windows will play an important role in this analysis. In order to understand the statistical implication of this approach, it has been necessary to compute detection statistics for overlapped Hann spectra. Tables of signal detection statistics are given for false alarm rates from 10(exp -14) to 10(exp -1) and signal detection probabilities from 0.50 to 0.99; the number of computed spectra ranges from 4 to 2000.

The Influence of Nicotine Dose and Nicotine Dose Expectancy on the Cognitive and Subjective Effects of Cigarette Smoking

PubMed Central

Juliano, Laura M.; Fucito, Lisa M.; Harrell, Paul T.

2013-01-01

This study investigated the independent and interactive effects of nicotine dose and nicotine dose expectancy on smoking outcomes using a 2 (given nicotine vs. placebo) × 2 (told nicotine vs. placebo) Balanced Placebo Design (BPD). Smokers (N = 148) completed the Rapid Visual Information Processing Task (RVIP) and measures of smoking urge, mood, and cigarette ratings (e.g., satisfying) after smoking a nicotine or placebo cigarette crossed with instructions that the cigarette contained either nicotine or no nicotine. Nicotine cigarettes (0.6 mg nicotine) produced better sustained attention performance than placebos as indicated by RVIP reaction time, hits, and sensitivity (A′). Nicotine cigarettes also produced better mood and greater rewarding subjective effects of the cigarettes on 11 of 11 dimensions compared to placebos. Nicotine instructions resulted in fewer RVIP false alarms, better mood, and greater rewarding subjective effects of the cigarettes on 9 of 11 dimensions compared to placebo instructions. Nicotine dose by nicotine dose expectancy interactions were also observed for urge and tension-anxiety, such that the dose expectancy manipulation produced differential effects only among those who smoked placebo cigarettes. In contrast a significant interaction for self-reported vigor-activity demonstrated that the dose expectancy manipulation produced effects only among those who smoked nicotine cigarettes. This study provides additional evidence that nicotine improves cognitive performance, and provides initial evidence that denicotinized cigarettes smoked under the guise that they contain nicotine influence cognitive performance, albeit with less robust effects than nicotine. These data may inform the development of expectancy-based interventions for tobacco dependence. PMID:21463067

The false-negative rate of sentinel node biopsy in patients with breast cancer: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Pesek, Sarah; Ashikaga, Taka; Krag, Lars Erik; Krag, David

2012-01-01

Background/Purpose In sentinel node surgery for breast cancer, procedural accuracy is assessed by calculating the false-negative rate. It is important to measure this since there are potential adverse outcomes from missing node metastases. We performed a meta-analysis of published data to assess which method has achieved the lowest false-negative rate. Methods We found 3588 articles concerning sentinel nodes and breast cancer published from 1993 through mid-2011; 183 articles met our inclusion criteria. The studies described in these 183 articles included a total of 9306 patients. We grouped the studies by injection material and injection location. The false-negative rates were analyzed according to these groupings and also by the year in which the articles were published. Results There was significant variation in the false-negative rate over time with a trend to higher rates over time. There was significant variation related to injection material. The use of blue dye alone was associated with the highest false-negative rate. Inclusion of a radioactive tracer along with blue dye resulted in a significantly lower false-negative rate. Although there were variations in the false-negative rate according to injection location, none were significant. This meta-analysis also indicates a significant change over time in the false-negative rate. Discussion/Conclusions The use of blue dye should be accompanied by a radioactive tracer to achieve a significantly lower false-negative rate. Location of injection did not have a significant impact on the false-negative rate. Given the limitations of acquiring appropriate data, the false-negative rate should not be used as a metric for training or quality control. PMID:22569745

Cerebellar tDCS does not affect performance in the N-back task.

PubMed

van Wessel, Brenda W V; Claire Verhage, M; Holland, Peter; Frens, Maarten A; van der Geest, Jos N

2016-01-01

The N-back task is widely used in cognitive research. Furthermore, the cerebellum's role in cognitive processes is becoming more widely recognized. Studies using transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) have demonstrated effects of cerebellar stimulation on several cognitive tasks. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of cerebellar tDCS on cognitive performance by using the N-back task. The cerebellum of 12 participants was stimulated during the task. Moreover, the cognitive load was manipulated in N = 2, N = 3, and N = 4. Every participant received three tDCS conditions (anodal, cathodal, and sham) divided over three separated days. It was expected that anodal stimulation would improve performance on the task. Each participant performed 6 repetitions of every load in which correct responses, false alarms, and reaction times were recorded. We found significant differences between the three levels of load in the rate of correct responses and false alarms, indicating that subjects followed the expected pattern of performance for the N-back task. However, no significant differences between the three tDCS conditions were found. Therefore, it was concluded that in this study cognitive performance on the N-back task was not readily influenced by cerebellar tDCS, and any true effects are likely to be small. We discuss several limitations in task design and suggest future experiments to address such issues.

43 CFR 2.12 - When can I expect the response?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false When can I expect the response? 2.12 Section 2.12 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior RECORDS AND TESTIMONY; FREEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT Requests for Records under the FOIA § 2.12 When can I expect the response? (a...

Using Relative Statistics and Approximate Disease Prevalence to Compare Screening Tests.

PubMed

Samuelson, Frank; Abbey, Craig

2016-11-01

Schatzkin et al. and other authors demonstrated that the ratios of some conditional statistics such as the true positive fraction are equal to the ratios of unconditional statistics, such as disease detection rates, and therefore we can calculate these ratios between two screening tests on the same population even if negative test patients are not followed with a reference procedure and the true and false negative rates are unknown. We demonstrate that this same property applies to an expected utility metric. We also demonstrate that while simple estimates of relative specificities and relative areas under ROC curves (AUC) do depend on the unknown negative rates, we can write these ratios in terms of disease prevalence, and the dependence of these ratios on a posited prevalence is often weak particularly if that prevalence is small or the performance of the two screening tests is similar. Therefore we can estimate relative specificity or AUC with little loss of accuracy, if we use an approximate value of disease prevalence.

Detecting and Discriminating Gravitational Microlensing in the SuperMACHO Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, Arti

2010-02-01

The SuperMACHO Project is a 5 year survey to determine the nature of the lens population responsible for the excess gravitational microlensing rate toward the Large Magellanic Cloud observed by the MACHO project. The MACHO results indicate a large population of compact lenses toward the clouds, and the observed lensing rate is consistent with a Milky Way halo comprised of up to ˜20% Massive Compact Halo Objects (MACHO's), dark matter that is most likely baryonic. This work describes the method by which gravitational microlensing is detected in the SuperMACHO survey. Based on the MACHO findings and the SuperMACHO observing strategy and selection criteria, we expect <10-6 of the sources monitored to be lensed at any time. Our detection criteria are designed to minimize false positives while preserving a statistically significant detection rate. We provide an overview of the detection criteria. We also discuss the selection criteria used to discriminate between microlensing and other astrophysical transients. )

A Search for Transits of Proxima b in MOST Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kipping, David M.

2017-01-01

The recent discovery of a potentially rocky planet in the habitable-zone of our nearest star presents exciting prospects for future detailed characterization of another world. If Proxima b transits its star, the road to characterization would be considerably eased. In 2014 and 2015, we monitored Proxima Centauri with the Canadian space telescope MOST for a total of 43 days. As expected, the star presents considerable photometric variability due to flares, which greatly complicate our analysis. Using Gaussian process regression and Bayesian model selection with informative priors for the time of transit of Proxima b, we do find evidence for a transit of the expected depth. However, relaxing the prior on the transit time to an uninformative one returns a distinct solution highlighting the high false-positive rate induced by flaring. Using ground-based photometry from HATSouth, we show that our candidate transit is unlikely to be genuine although a conclusive answer will likely require infrared photometry, such as that from Spitzer, where flaring should be suppressed.

False discovery rates in spectral identification.

PubMed

Jeong, Kyowon; Kim, Sangtae; Bandeira, Nuno

2012-01-01

Automated database search engines are one of the fundamental engines of high-throughput proteomics enabling daily identifications of hundreds of thousands of peptides and proteins from tandem mass (MS/MS) spectrometry data. Nevertheless, this automation also makes it humanly impossible to manually validate the vast lists of resulting identifications from such high-throughput searches. This challenge is usually addressed by using a Target-Decoy Approach (TDA) to impose an empirical False Discovery Rate (FDR) at a pre-determined threshold x% with the expectation that at most x% of the returned identifications would be false positives. But despite the fundamental importance of FDR estimates in ensuring the utility of large lists of identifications, there is surprisingly little consensus on exactly how TDA should be applied to minimize the chances of biased FDR estimates. In fact, since less rigorous TDA/FDR estimates tend to result in more identifications (at higher 'true' FDR), there is often little incentive to enforce strict TDA/FDR procedures in studies where the major metric of success is the size of the list of identifications and there are no follow up studies imposing hard cost constraints on the number of reported false positives. Here we address the problem of the accuracy of TDA estimates of empirical FDR. Using MS/MS spectra from samples where we were able to define a factual FDR estimator of 'true' FDR we evaluate several popular variants of the TDA procedure in a variety of database search contexts. We show that the fraction of false identifications can sometimes be over 10× higher than reported and may be unavoidably high for certain types of searches. In addition, we further report that the two-pass search strategy seems the most promising database search strategy. While unavoidably constrained by the particulars of any specific evaluation dataset, our observations support a series of recommendations towards maximizing the number of resulting identifications while controlling database searches with robust and reproducible TDA estimation of empirical FDR.

26 CFR 1.401(a)(9)-9 - Life expectancy and distribution period tables.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Life expectancy and distribution period tables... Plans, Etc. § 1.401(a)(9)-9 Life expectancy and distribution period tables. Q-1. What is the life...)(9)? A-1 The following table, referred to as the Single Life Table, is used for determining the life...

Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

PubMed

Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

2018-04-01

Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

Income gaps in self-rated poor health and its association with life expectancy in 245 districts of Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Ikhan; Bahk, Jinwook; Yun, Sung-Cheol; Khang, Young-Ho

2017-01-01

To examine the income gaps associated with self-rated poor health at the district level in Korea and to identify the geographical correlations between self-rated poor health, life expectancy, and the associated income gaps. We analyzed data for 1,578,189 participants from the Community Health Survey of Korea collected between 2008 and 2014. The age-standardized prevalence of self-rated poor health and the associated income gaps were calculated. Previously released data on life expectancy and the associated income gaps were also used. We performed correlation and regression analyses for self-rated poor health, life expectancy, and associated income gaps. Across 245 districts, the median prevalence of self-rated poor health was 15.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.6 to 16.8%), with interquartile range (IQR) of 3.1 percentage points (%p). The median interquintile gaps in the prevalence of self-rated poor health was 11.1%p (95% CI, 8.1 to 14.5%p), with IQR of 3.6%p. Pro-rich inequalities in self-rated health were observed across all 245 districts of Korea. The correlation coefficients for the association between self-rated poor health and the associated income gaps, self-rated poor health and life expectancy, and income gaps associated with self-rated poor health and life expectancy were 0.59, 0.78 and 0.55 respectively. Income gaps associated with self-rated poor health were evident across all districts in Korea. The magnitude of income gaps associated with self-rated poor health was larger in the districts with greater prevalence of self-rated poor health. A strong correlation between self-rated poor health and life expectancy was also observed.

Income gaps in self-rated poor health and its association with life expectancy in 245 districts of Korea

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES To examine the income gaps associated with self-rated poor health at the district level in Korea and to identify the geographical correlations between self-rated poor health, life expectancy, and the associated income gaps. METHODS We analyzed data for 1,578,189 participants from the Community Health Survey of Korea collected between 2008 and 2014. The age-standardized prevalence of self-rated poor health and the associated income gaps were calculated. Previously released data on life expectancy and the associated income gaps were also used. We performed correlation and regression analyses for self-rated poor health, life expectancy, and associated income gaps. RESULTS Across 245 districts, the median prevalence of self-rated poor health was 15.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.6 to 16.8%), with interquartile range (IQR) of 3.1 percentage points (%p). The median interquintile gaps in the prevalence of self-rated poor health was 11.1%p (95% CI, 8.1 to 14.5%p), with IQR of 3.6%p. Pro-rich inequalities in self-rated health were observed across all 245 districts of Korea. The correlation coefficients for the association between self-rated poor health and the associated income gaps, self-rated poor health and life expectancy, and income gaps associated with self-rated poor health and life expectancy were 0.59, 0.78 and 0.55 respectively. CONCLUSIONS Income gaps associated with self-rated poor health were evident across all districts in Korea. The magnitude of income gaps associated with self-rated poor health was larger in the districts with greater prevalence of self-rated poor health. A strong correlation between self-rated poor health and life expectancy was also observed. PMID:28330335

Altering gender role expectations: effects on pain tolerance, pain threshold, and pain ratings.

PubMed

Robinson, Michael E; Gagnon, Christine M; Riley, Joseph L; Price, Donald D

2003-06-01

The literature demonstrating sex differences in pain is sizable. Most explanations for these differences have focused on biologic mechanisms, and only a few studies have examined social learning. The purpose of this study was to examine the contribution of gender-role stereotypes to sex differences in pain. This study used experimental manipulation of gender-role expectations for men and women. One hundred twenty students participated in the cold pressor task. Before the pain task, participants were given 1 of 3 instructional sets: no expectation, 30-second performance expectation, or a 90-second performance expectation. Pain ratings, threshold, and tolerance were recorded. Significant sex differences in the "no expectation" condition for pain tolerance (t = 2.32, df = 38, P <.05) and post-cold pressor pain ratings (t = 2.6, df = 37, P <.05) were found. Women had briefer tolerance times and higher post-cold pressor ratings than men. When given gender-specific tolerance expectations, men and women did not differ in their pain tolerance, pain threshold, or pain ratings. This is the first empirical study to show that manipulation of expectations alters sex differences in laboratory pain.

An examination of the sensitivity and systematic error of the NASA GEMS Bragg Reflection Polarimeter using Monte-Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allured, Ryan; Okajima, Takashi; Soufli, Regina; Fernández-Perea, Mónica; Daly, Ryan O.; Marlowe, Hannah; Griffiths, Scott T.; Pivovaroff, Michael J.; Kaaret, Philip

2012-10-01

The Bragg Reflection Polarimeter (BRP) on the NASA Gravity and Extreme Magnetism Small Explorer Mission is designed to measure the linear polarization of astrophysical sources in a narrow band centered at about 500 eV. X-rays are focused by Wolter I mirrors through a 4.5 m focal length to a time projection chamber (TPC) polarimeter, sensitive between 2{10 keV. In this optical path lies the BRP multilayer reflector at a nominal 45 degree incidence angle. The reflector reflects soft X-rays to the BRP detector and transmits hard X-rays to the TPC. As the spacecraft rotates about the optical axis, the reflected count rate will vary depending on the polarization of the incident beam. However, false polarization signals may be produced due to misalignments and spacecraft pointing wobble. Monte-Carlo simulations have been carried out, showing that the false modulation is below the statistical uncertainties for the expected focal plane offsets of < 2 mm.

Relative importance of demographic, socioeconomic and health factors on life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

PubMed

Mondal, Md Nazrul Islam; Shitan, Mahendran

2014-01-01

We attempted to identify the pathways by which demographic changes, socioeconomic inequalities, and availability of health factors influence life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Data for 91 countries were obtained from United Nations agencies. The response variable was life expectancy, and the determinant factors were demographic events (total fertility rate and adolescent fertility rate), socioeconomic status (mean years of schooling and gross national income per capita), and health factors (physician density and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] prevalence rate). Path analysis was used to determine the direct, indirect, and total effects of these factors on life expectancy. All determinant factors were significantly correlated with life expectancy. Mean years of schooling, total fertility rate, and HIV prevalence rate had significant direct and indirect effects on life expectancy. The total effect of higher physician density was to increase life expectancy. We identified several direct and indirect pathways that predict life expectancy. The findings suggest that policies should concentrate on improving reproductive decisions, increasing education, and reducing HIV transmission. In addition, special attention should be paid to the emerging need to increase life expectancy by increasing physician density.

Relative Importance of Demographic, Socioeconomic and Health Factors on Life Expectancy in Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries

PubMed Central

Mondal, Md. Nazrul Islam; Shitan, Mahendran

2014-01-01

Background We attempted to identify the pathways by which demographic changes, socioeconomic inequalities, and availability of health factors influence life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Methods Data for 91 countries were obtained from United Nations agencies. The response variable was life expectancy, and the determinant factors were demographic events (total fertility rate and adolescent fertility rate), socioeconomic status (mean years of schooling and gross national income per capita), and health factors (physician density and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] prevalence rate). Path analysis was used to determine the direct, indirect, and total effects of these factors on life expectancy. Results All determinant factors were significantly correlated with life expectancy. Mean years of schooling, total fertility rate, and HIV prevalence rate had significant direct and indirect effects on life expectancy. The total effect of higher physician density was to increase life expectancy. Conclusions We identified several direct and indirect pathways that predict life expectancy. The findings suggest that policies should concentrate on improving reproductive decisions, increasing education, and reducing HIV transmission. In addition, special attention should be paid to the emerging need to increase life expectancy by increasing physician density. PMID:24390415

Microsatellite markers associated with resistance to Marek's disease in commercial layer chickens.

PubMed

McElroy, J P; Dekkers, J C M; Fulton, J E; O'Sullivan, N P; Soller, M; Lipkin, E; Zhang, W; Koehler, K J; Lamont, S J; Cheng, H H

2005-11-01

The objective of the current study was to identify QTL conferring resistance to Marek's disease (MD) in commercial layer chickens. To generate the resource population, 2 partially inbred lines that differed in MD-caused mortality were intermated to produce 5 backcross families. Vaccinated chicks were challenged with very virulent plus (vv+) MD virus strain 648A at 6 d and monitored for MD symptoms. A recent field isolate of the MD virus was used because the lines were resistant to commonly used older laboratory strains. Selective genotyping was employed using 81 microsatellites selected based on prior results with selective DNA pooling. Linear regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to detect associations between marker genotypes and survival. Significance thresholds were validated by simulation. Seven and 6 markers were significant based on proportion of false positive and false discovery rate thresholds less than 0.2, respectively. Seventeen markers were associated with MD survival considering a comparison-wise error rate of 0.10, which is about twice the number expected by chance, indicating that at least some of the associations represent true effects. Thus, the present study shows that loci affecting MD resistance can be mapped in commercial layer lines. More comprehensive studies are under way to confirm and extend these results.

Effects of feedback accountability and self-rating information on employee appraisals: a replication and extension.

PubMed

Shore, Ted H; Tashchian, Armen

2007-06-01

The influence of feedback accountability and self-rating information on employee performance appraisals was examined. Undergraduate business student participants assumed the role of "supervisor" and evaluated a fictitious "subordinate" whose performance on a clerical task was either moderately poor or very good. Participants were either given fictitious self-rating information, or no self-rating information, and were told they were expected to provide performance feedback to their ratee, or there was no feedback expectation. As expected, in Study 1 both self-rating information and expected feedback-sharing independently resulted in lenient ratings for poor performance, and the combined effects resulted in the highest ratings. By contrast, results for good performance (Study 2) were not significant. Implications of the findings for human resource management practice and research were discussed.

Is False Belief Skin-Deep? The Agent's Eye Status Influences Infants' Reasoning in Belief-Inducing Situations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poulin-Dubois, Diane; Polonia, Alexandra; Yott, Jessica

2013-01-01

Two experiments were conducted to determine if infants attribute false beliefs to others when tested with the violation-of-expectancy procedure. In Experiment 1, the false-belief task was administered to 14- and 18-month-old infants. The procedure was identical to the one used by Onishi and Baillargeon (2005), except that two transparent boxes…

What has contributed to the change in life expectancy in Italy between 1980 and 1992?

PubMed

Ngongo, K N; Nante, N; Chenet, L; McKee, M

1999-07-01

Life expectancy at birth in southern Europe is known to be greater than expected in comparison with levels of economic development. This has been attributed to the 'Mediterranean diet'. There are, however, concerns that this comparative advantage is being lost. This paper examines the factors underlying changing life expectancy in Italy since 1980. The subjects of this analysis are obtained from data on all deaths in Italy between 1980 and 1992. Change in age specific death rates is calculated from selected causes and, using the method developed by Pollard, the contribution of deaths from different causes and at different ages to changing life expectancy at birth is estimated. Between 1980 and 1992, life expectancy at birth increased by 2.70 years for men and 2.75 years for women. Death rates have fallen among children and those over 40. In contrast, death rates have increased among men aged between 20 and 39 and have increased very slightly among women aged 25-29. Falling death rates from ischaemic heart disease are continuing to contribute to increasing life expectancy. Death rates from lung and breast cancer are rising among women but are compensated for by falling death rates from other cancers. Among men, falling death rates from cancer at younger ages are being offset by increases at older ages. The rising death rate among younger men is almost entirely due to AIDS, with accidents also making a small contribution. Life expectancy in Italy has improved throughout the 1980s, largely driven by falling death rates from cardiovascular diseases. Here are, however, some worrying trends, most notably the rising death rate among young men, due almost entirely to AIDS. The changing pattern of mortality has some similarities with Spain, another Mediterranean country, but there are also important differences.

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope as a Near-Earth Object discovery machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, R. Lynne; Slater, Colin T.; Moeyens, Joachim; Allen, Lori; Axelrod, Tim; Cook, Kem; Ivezić, Željko; Jurić, Mario; Myers, Jonathan; Petry, Catherine E.

2018-03-01

Using the most recent prototypes, design, and as-built system information, we test and quantify the capability of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) to discover Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) and Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). We empirically estimate an expected upper limit to the false detection rate in LSST image differencing, using measurements on DECam data and prototype LSST software and find it to be about 450 deg-2. We show that this rate is already tractable with current prototype of the LSST Moving Object Processing System (MOPS) by processing a 30-day simulation consistent with measured false detection rates. We proceed to evaluate the performance of the LSST baseline survey strategy for PHAs and NEOs using a high-fidelity simulated survey pointing history. We find that LSST alone, using its baseline survey strategy, will detect 66% of the PHA and 61% of the NEO population objects brighter than H = 22 , with the uncertainty in the estimate of ± 5 percentage points. By generating and examining variations on the baseline survey strategy, we show it is possible to further improve the discovery yields. In particular, we find that extending the LSST survey by two additional years and doubling the MOPS search window increases the completeness for PHAs to 86% (including those discovered by contemporaneous surveys) without jeopardizing other LSST science goals (77% for NEOs). This equates to reducing the undiscovered population of PHAs by additional 26% (15% for NEOs), relative to the baseline survey.

40 CFR 197.14 - What is a reasonable expectation?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false What is a reasonable expectation? 197.14 Section 197.14 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) RADIATION PROTECTION PROGRAMS PUBLIC HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION PROTECTION STANDARDS FOR YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA...

40 CFR 197.14 - What is a reasonable expectation?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false What is a reasonable expectation? 197.14 Section 197.14 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) RADIATION PROTECTION PROGRAMS PUBLIC HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION PROTECTION STANDARDS FOR YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA...

40 CFR 197.14 - What is a reasonable expectation?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What is a reasonable expectation? 197.14 Section 197.14 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) RADIATION PROTECTION PROGRAMS PUBLIC HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION PROTECTION STANDARDS FOR YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA...

Quantitative trait Loci analysis using the false discovery rate.

PubMed

Benjamini, Yoav; Yekutieli, Daniel

2005-10-01

False discovery rate control has become an essential tool in any study that has a very large multiplicity problem. False discovery rate-controlling procedures have also been found to be very effective in QTL analysis, ensuring reproducible results with few falsely discovered linkages and offering increased power to discover QTL, although their acceptance has been slower than in microarray analysis, for example. The reason is partly because the methodological aspects of applying the false discovery rate to QTL mapping are not well developed. Our aim in this work is to lay a solid foundation for the use of the false discovery rate in QTL mapping. We review the false discovery rate criterion, the appropriate interpretation of the FDR, and alternative formulations of the FDR that appeared in the statistical and genetics literature. We discuss important features of the FDR approach, some stemming from new developments in FDR theory and methodology, which deem it especially useful in linkage analysis. We review false discovery rate-controlling procedures--the BH, the resampling procedure, and the adaptive two-stage procedure-and discuss the validity of these procedures in single- and multiple-trait QTL mapping. Finally we argue that the control of the false discovery rate has an important role in suggesting, indicating the significance of, and confirming QTL and present guidelines for its use.

[Molecular beacon based PNA-FISH method combined with fluorescence scanning for rapid detection of Listeria monocytogenes].

PubMed

Wu, Shan; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Shuai, Jiangbing; Li, Ke; Yu, Huizhen; Jin, Chenchen

2016-07-04

To simplify the PNA-FISH (Peptide nucleic acid-fluorescence in situ hybridization) test, molecular beacon based PNA probe combined with fluorescence scanning detection technology was applied to replace the original microscope observation to detect Listeria monocytogenes The 5′ end and 3′ end of the L. monocytogenes specific PNA probes were labeled with the fluorescent group and the quenching group respectively, to form a molecular beacon based PNA probe. When PNA probe used for fluorescence scanning and N1 treatment as the control, the false positive rate was 11.4%, and the false negative rate was 0; when N2 treatment as the control, the false positive rate decreased to 4.3%, but the false negative rate rose to 18.6%. When beacon based PNA probe used for fluorescence scanning, taken N1 treatment as blank control, the false positive rate was 8.6%, and the false negative rate was 1.4%; taken N2 treatment as blank control, the false positive rate was 5.7%, and the false negative rate was 1.4%. Compared with PNA probe, molecular beacon based PNA probe can effectively reduce false positives and false negatives. The success rates of hybridization of the two PNA probes were 83.3% and 95.2% respectively; and the rates of the two beacon based PNA probes were 91.7% and 90.5% respectively, which indicated that labeling the both ends of the PNA probe dose not decrease the hybridization rate with the target bacteria. The combination of liquid phase PNA-FISH and fluorescence scanning method, can significantly improve the detection efficiency.

Can an agent’s false belief be corrected by an appropriate communication? Psychological reasoning in 18-month-old infants

PubMed Central

Song, Hyun-joo; Onishi, Kristine H.; Baillargeon, Renée; Fisher, Cynthia

2008-01-01

Do 18-month-olds understand that an agent’s false belief can be corrected by an appropriate, though not an inappropriate, communication? In Experiment 1, infants watched a series of events involving two agents, a ball, and two containers: a box and a cup. To start, agent1 played with the ball and then hid it in the box, while agent2 looked on. Next, in agent1’s absence, agent2 moved the ball from the box to the cup. When agent1 returned, agent2 told her “The ball is in the cup!” (informative-intervention condition) or “I like the cup!” (uninformative-intervention condition). During test, agent1 reached for either the box (box event) or the cup (cup event). In the informative-intervention condition, infants who saw the box event looked reliably longer than those who saw the cup event; in the uninformative-intervention condition, the reverse pattern was found. These results suggest that infants expected agent1’s false belief about the ball’s location to be corrected when she was told “The ball is in the cup!”, but not “I like the cup!”. In Experiment 2, agent2 simply pointed to the ball’s new location, and infants again expected agent1’s false belief to be corrected. These and control results provide additional evidence that infants in the second year of life can attribute false beliefs to agents. In addition, the results suggest that by 18 months of age infants expect agents’ false beliefs to be corrected by relevant communications involving words or gestures. PMID:18976745

Threat expectancy bias and treatment outcome in patients with panic disorder and agoraphobia.

PubMed

Duits, Puck; Klein Hofmeijer-Sevink, Mieke; Engelhard, Iris M; Baas, Johanna M P; Ehrismann, Wieske A M; Cath, Danielle C

2016-09-01

Previous studies suggest that patients with panic disorder and agoraphobia (PD/A) tend to overestimate the associations between fear-relevant stimuli and threat. This so-called threat expectancy bias is thought to play a role in the development and treatment of anxiety disorders. The current study tested 1) whether patients with PD/A (N = 71) show increased threat expectancy ratings to fear-relevant and fear-irrelevant stimuli relative to a comparison group without an axis I disorder (N=65), and 2) whether threat expectancy bias before treatment predicts treatment outcome in a subset of these patients (n = 51). In a computerized task, participants saw a series of panic-related and neutral words and rated for each word the likelihood that it would be followed by a loud, aversive sound. Results showed higher threat expectancy ratings to both panic-related and neutral words in patients with PD/A compared to the comparison group. Threat expectancy ratings did not predict treatment outcome. This study only used expectancy ratings and did not include physiological measures. Furthermore, no post-treatment expectancy bias task was added to shed further light on the possibility that expectancy bias might be attenuated by treatment. Patients show higher expectancies of aversive outcome following both fear-relevant and fear-irrelevant stimuli relative to the comparison group, but this does not predict treatment outcome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Question order sensitivity of subjective well-being measures: focus on life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy in survey instruments.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; McClain, Colleen; Webster, Noah; Han, Saram

2016-10-01

This study examines the effect of question context created by order in questionnaires on three subjective well-being measures: life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy. We conducted two Web survey experiments. The first experiment (n = 648) altered the order of life satisfaction and self-rated health: (1) life satisfaction asked immediately after self-rated health; (2) self-rated health immediately after life satisfaction; and (3) two items placed apart. We examined their correlation coefficient by experimental condition and further examined its interaction with objective health. The second experiment (n = 479) asked life expectancy before and after parental mortality questions. Responses to life expectancy were compared by order using ANOVA, and we examined interaction with parental mortality status using ANCOVA. Additionally, response time and probes were examined. Correlation coefficients between self-rated health and life satisfaction differed significantly by order: 0.313 (life satisfaction first), 0.508 (apart), and 0.643 (self-rated health first). Differences were larger among respondents with chronic conditions. Response times were the shortest when self-rated health was asked first. When life expectancy asked after parental mortality questions, respondents reported considering parents more for answering life expectancy; and respondents with deceased parents reported significantly lower expectancy, but not those whose parents were alive. Question context effects exist. Findings suggest placing life satisfaction and self-rated health apart to avoid artificial attenuation or inflation in their association. Asking about parental mortality prior to life expectancy appears advantageous as this leads respondents to consider parental longevity more, an important factor for true longevity.

Decennial trends and inequalities in healthy life expectancy: The HUNT Study, Norway.

PubMed

Storeng, Siri H; Krokstad, Steinar; Westin, Steinar; Sund, Erik R

2018-02-01

Norway is experiencing a rising life expectancy combined with an increasing dependency ratio - the ratio of those outside over those within the working force. To provide data relevant for future health policy we wanted to study trends in total and healthy life expectancy in a Norwegian population over three decades (1980s, 1990s and 2000s), both overall and across gender and educational groups. Data were obtained from the HUNT Study, and the Norwegian Educational Database. We calculated total life expectancy and used the Sullivan method to calculate healthy life expectancies based on self-rated health and self-reported longstanding limiting illness. The change in health expectancies was decomposed into mortality and disability effects. During three consecutive decades we found an increase in life expectancy for 30-year-olds (~7 years) and expected lifetime in self-rated good health (~6 years), but time without longstanding limiting illness increased less (1.5 years). Women could expect to live longer than men, but the extra life years for females were spent in poor self-rated health and with longstanding limiting illness. Differences in total life expectancy between educational groups decreased, whereas differences in expected lifetime in self-rated good health and lifetime without longstanding limiting illness increased. The increase in total life expectancy was accompanied by an increasing number of years spent in good self-rated health but more years with longstanding limiting illness. This suggests increasing health care needs for people with chronic diseases, given an increasing number of elderly. Socioeconomic health inequalities remain a challenge for increasing pensioning age.

Automated real time constant-specificity surveillance for disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Wieland, Shannon C; Brownstein, John S; Berger, Bonnie; Mandl, Kenneth D

2007-06-13

For real time surveillance, detection of abnormal disease patterns is based on a difference between patterns observed, and those predicted by models of historical data. The usefulness of outbreak detection strategies depends on their specificity; the false alarm rate affects the interpretation of alarms. We evaluate the specificity of five traditional models: autoregressive, Serfling, trimmed seasonal, wavelet-based, and generalized linear. We apply each to 12 years of emergency department visits for respiratory infection syndromes at a pediatric hospital, finding that the specificity of the five models was almost always a non-constant function of the day of the week, month, and year of the study (p < 0.05). We develop an outbreak detection method, called the expectation-variance model, based on generalized additive modeling to achieve a constant specificity by accounting for not only the expected number of visits, but also the variance of the number of visits. The expectation-variance model achieves constant specificity on all three time scales, as well as earlier detection and improved sensitivity compared to traditional methods in most circumstances. Modeling the variance of visit patterns enables real-time detection with known, constant specificity at all times. With constant specificity, public health practitioners can better interpret the alarms and better evaluate the cost-effectiveness of surveillance systems.

Anomaly Detection in Gamma-Ray Vehicle Spectra with Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis Distances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tardiff, Mark F.; Runkle, Robert C.; Anderson, K. K.

2006-01-23

The goal of primary radiation monitoring in support of routine screening and emergency response is to detect characteristics in vehicle radiation signatures that indicate the presence of potential threats. Two conceptual approaches to analyzing gamma-ray spectra for threat detection are isotope identification and anomaly detection. While isotope identification is the time-honored method, an emerging technique is anomaly detection that uses benign vehicle gamma ray signatures to define an expectation of the radiation signature for vehicles that do not pose a threat. Newly acquired spectra are then compared to this expectation using statistical criteria that reflect acceptable false alarm rates andmore » probabilities of detection. The gamma-ray spectra analyzed here were collected at a U.S. land Port of Entry (POE) using a NaI-based radiation portal monitor (RPM). The raw data were analyzed to develop a benign vehicle expectation by decimating the original pulse-height channels to 35 energy bins, extracting composite variables via principal components analysis (PCA), and estimating statistically weighted distances from the mean vehicle spectrum with the mahalanobis distance (MD) metric. This paper reviews the methods used to establish the anomaly identification criteria and presents a systematic analysis of the response of the combined PCA and MD algorithm to modeled mono-energetic gamma-ray sources.« less

Evaluation of an automated safety surveillance system using risk adjusted sequential probability ratio testing.

PubMed

Matheny, Michael E; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Gross, Thomas P; Marinac-Dabic, Danica; Loyo-Berrios, Nilsa; Vidi, Venkatesan D; Donnelly, Sharon; Resnic, Frederic S

2011-12-14

Automated adverse outcome surveillance tools and methods have potential utility in quality improvement and medical product surveillance activities. Their use for assessing hospital performance on the basis of patient outcomes has received little attention. We compared risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio testing (RA-SPRT) implemented in an automated tool to Massachusetts public reports of 30-day mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery. A total of 23,020 isolated adult coronary artery bypass surgery admissions performed in Massachusetts hospitals between January 1, 2002 and September 30, 2007 were retrospectively re-evaluated. The RA-SPRT method was implemented within an automated surveillance tool to identify hospital outliers in yearly increments. We used an overall type I error rate of 0.05, an overall type II error rate of 0.10, and a threshold that signaled if the odds of dying 30-days after surgery was at least twice than expected. Annual hospital outlier status, based on the state-reported classification, was considered the gold standard. An event was defined as at least one occurrence of a higher-than-expected hospital mortality rate during a given year. We examined a total of 83 hospital-year observations. The RA-SPRT method alerted 6 events among three hospitals for 30-day mortality compared with 5 events among two hospitals using the state public reports, yielding a sensitivity of 100% (5/5) and specificity of 98.8% (79/80). The automated RA-SPRT method performed well, detecting all of the true institutional outliers with a small false positive alerting rate. Such a system could provide confidential automated notification to local institutions in advance of public reporting providing opportunities for earlier quality improvement interventions.

Inequalities in US Life Expectancy by Area Unemployment Level, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Singh, Gopal K.; Siahpush, Mohammad

2016-01-01

This study examined the association between unemployment and life expectancy in the United States during 1990–2010. Census-based unemployment rates were linked to US county-level mortality data. Life expectancies were calculated by age, sex, race, and unemployment level during 1990–2010. Differences in life expectancy were decomposed by age and cause of death. Life expectancy was consistently lower in areas with higher unemployment rates. In 2006–2010, those in areas with high unemployment rates (≥9%) had a life expectancy of 76.9 years, compared with 80.7 years for those in areas with low unemployment rates (<3%). The association between unemployment and life expectancy was stronger for men than for women. Life expectancy ranged from 69.9 years among black men in high unemployment areas to 90.0 years among Asian/Pacific Islander women in low unemployment areas. Disparities persisted over time. In 1990–1992, life expectancy was 4.7 years shorter in high unemployment than in low unemployment areas. In 2006–2010, the life expectancy difference between the lowest and highest unemployment areas decreased to 3.8 years. Heart disease, cancer, homicide, unintentional injuries, diabetes, HIV/AIDS, and liver cirrhosis contributed most to the lower life expectancy in high unemployment areas. High unemployment areas recorded larger gains in life expectancy than low unemployment areas, contributing to the narrowing gap during 1990–2010. PMID:27073716

Adaptive false memory: Imagining future scenarios increases false memories in the DRM paradigm.

PubMed

Dewhurst, Stephen A; Anderson, Rachel J; Grace, Lydia; van Esch, Lotte

2016-10-01

Previous research has shown that rating words for their relevance to a future scenario enhances memory for those words. The current study investigated the effect of future thinking on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) procedure. In Experiment 1, participants rated words from 6 DRM lists for relevance to a past or future event (with or without planning) or in terms of pleasantness. In a surprise recall test, levels of correct recall did not vary between the rating tasks, but the future rating conditions led to significantly higher levels of false recall than the past and pleasantness conditions did. Experiment 2 found that future rating led to higher levels of false recognition than did past and pleasantness ratings but did not affect correct recognition. The effect in false recognition was, however, eliminated when DRM items were presented in random order. Participants in Experiment 3 were presented with both DRM lists and lists of unrelated words. Future rating increased levels of false recognition for DRM lures but did not affect correct recognition for DRM or unrelated lists. The findings are discussed in terms of the view that false memories can be associated with adaptive memory functions.

Education for All: High Expectations or False Hopes?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hallak, Jacques

Although the World Conference on Education for All, held in March 1990 in Jomtien, Thailand, fostered international consensus on educational goals and raised expectations, obstacles to successful achievement of education for all (EFA) must be identified. This paper describes the five most important obstacles--political factors, economic/financial…

'It will get even better': preliminary findings from a trauma-focused psychotherapy effectiveness study reveal false positive patients' long-term outcome expectations after the treatment.

PubMed

Kazlauskas, Evaldas; Jovarauskaite, Lina; Mazulyte, Egle; Skruibis, Paulius; Dovydaitiene, Migle; Eimontas, Jonas; Zelviene, Paulina

2017-05-01

There is considerable evidence that outcome expectations may predict psychotherapy outcomes. However, little is known about the long-term outcome expectations following the end of the treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate patients' long-term outcome expectations after trauma-focused post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) psychotherapy in a single group effectiveness study. Twenty participants with various traumatic experiences who completed the Brief Eclectic Psychotherapy for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (BEPP) and all the assessments were included into the study. Self-report measures were used to evaluate the therapeutic outcomes: Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation-Outcome Measure (CORE-OM) at pre-treatment, post-treatment, and 6-month follow-up. Subjective Units of Distress Scale was used to measure long-term outcome expectations at post-treatment, asking participants to measure the expected distress in 6 months following the treatment. Assessments at 6-month follow-up were used to estimate the accuracy of patients' expectations of their distress at previous post-treatment assessment. Significant decline of PTSD symptoms at post-treatment with large effect sizes was observed. At post-treatment assessment participants expected significant improvement of their condition in 6 months after the treatment. However, therapeutic effects remained stable at the 6-month follow-up. It is concluded that the PTSD patients, even after successful trauma-focused treatment, tend to expect further significant positive changes. However, therapeutic effects were stable half a year after the psychotherapy, and patients tend to have false expectations about further improvement of their condition.

Expectancy, False Galvanic Skin Response Feedback, and Systematic Desensitization in the Modification of Phobic Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lick, John

1975-01-01

This study compared systematic desensitization and two pseudotherapy manipulations with and without false galvanic skin response feedback after every session suggesting improvement in the modification of intense snake and spider fear. The results indicated no consistent differences between the three treatment groups. (Author)

HIV misdiagnosis in sub-Saharan Africa: performance of diagnostic algorithms at six testing sites

PubMed Central

Kosack, Cara S.; Shanks, Leslie; Beelaert, Greet; Benson, Tumwesigye; Savane, Aboubacar; Ng’ang’a, Anne; Andre, Bita; Zahinda, Jean-Paul BN; Fransen, Katrien; Page, Anne-Laure

2017-01-01

Abstract Introduction: We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of HIV testing algorithms at six programmes in five sub-Saharan African countries. Methods: In this prospective multisite diagnostic evaluation study (Conakry, Guinea; Kitgum, Uganda; Arua, Uganda; Homa Bay, Kenya; Doula, Cameroun and Baraka, Democratic Republic of Congo), samples from clients (greater than equal to five years of age) testing for HIV were collected and compared to a state-of-the-art algorithm from the AIDS reference laboratory at the Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium. The reference algorithm consisted of an enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assay, a line-immunoassay, a single antigen-enzyme immunoassay and a DNA polymerase chain reaction test. Results: Between August 2011 and January 2015, over 14,000 clients were tested for HIV at 6 HIV counselling and testing sites. Of those, 2786 (median age: 30; 38.1% males) were included in the study. Sensitivity of the testing algorithms ranged from 89.5% in Arua to 100% in Douala and Conakry, while specificity ranged from 98.3% in Doula to 100% in Conakry. Overall, 24 (0.9%) clients, and as many as 8 per site (1.7%), were misdiagnosed, with 16 false-positive and 8 false-negative results. Six false-negative specimens were retested with the on-site algorithm on the same sample and were found to be positive. Conversely, 13 false-positive specimens were retested: 8 remained false-positive with the on-site algorithm. Conclusions: The performance of algorithms at several sites failed to meet expectations and thresholds set by the World Health Organization, with unacceptably high rates of false results. Alongside the careful selection of rapid diagnostic tests and the validation of algorithms, strictly observing correct procedures can reduce the risk of false results. In the meantime, to identify false-positive diagnoses at initial testing, patients should be retested upon initiating antiretroviral therapy. PMID:28691437

HIV misdiagnosis in sub-Saharan Africa: performance of diagnostic algorithms at six testing sites.

PubMed

Kosack, Cara S; Shanks, Leslie; Beelaert, Greet; Benson, Tumwesigye; Savane, Aboubacar; Ng'ang'a, Anne; Andre, Bita; Zahinda, Jean-Paul Bn; Fransen, Katrien; Page, Anne-Laure

2017-07-03

We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of HIV testing algorithms at six programmes in five sub-Saharan African countries. In this prospective multisite diagnostic evaluation study (Conakry, Guinea; Kitgum, Uganda; Arua, Uganda; Homa Bay, Kenya; Doula, Cameroun and Baraka, Democratic Republic of Congo), samples from clients (greater than equal to five years of age) testing for HIV were collected and compared to a state-of-the-art algorithm from the AIDS reference laboratory at the Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium. The reference algorithm consisted of an enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assay, a line-immunoassay, a single antigen-enzyme immunoassay and a DNA polymerase chain reaction test. Between August 2011 and January 2015, over 14,000 clients were tested for HIV at 6 HIV counselling and testing sites. Of those, 2786 (median age: 30; 38.1% males) were included in the study. Sensitivity of the testing algorithms ranged from 89.5% in Arua to 100% in Douala and Conakry, while specificity ranged from 98.3% in Doula to 100% in Conakry. Overall, 24 (0.9%) clients, and as many as 8 per site (1.7%), were misdiagnosed, with 16 false-positive and 8 false-negative results. Six false-negative specimens were retested with the on-site algorithm on the same sample and were found to be positive. Conversely, 13 false-positive specimens were retested: 8 remained false-positive with the on-site algorithm. The performance of algorithms at several sites failed to meet expectations and thresholds set by the World Health Organization, with unacceptably high rates of false results. Alongside the careful selection of rapid diagnostic tests and the validation of algorithms, strictly observing correct procedures can reduce the risk of false results. In the meantime, to identify false-positive diagnoses at initial testing, patients should be retested upon initiating antiretroviral therapy.

Assessing Police Classifications of Sexual Assault Reports: A Meta-Analysis of False Reporting Rates.

PubMed

Ferguson, Claire E; Malouff, John M

2016-07-01

The objective of the study was to determine, through meta-analysis, the rate of confirmed false reports of sexual assault to police. The meta-analysis initially involved a search for relevant articles. The search identified seven studies where researchers or their trained helpers evaluated reported sexual assault cases to determine the rate of confirmed false reports. The meta-analysis calculated an overall rate and tested for possible moderators of effect size. The meta-analytic rate of false reports of sexual assault was .052 (95 % CI .030, .089). The rates for the individual studies were heterogeneous, suggesting the possibility of moderators of rate. However, the four possible moderators examined-year of publication, whether the data set used had information in addition to police reports, whether the study was completed in the U.S. or elsewhere, and whether inter-rater reliabilities were reported-were all not significant. The meta-analysis of seven relevant studies shows that confirmed false allegations of sexual assault made to police occur at a significant rate. The total false reporting rate, including both confirmed and equivocal cases, would be greater than the 5 % rate found here.

Accent, intelligibility, and comprehensibility in the perception of foreign-accented Lombard speech

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chi-Nin

2003-10-01

Speech produced in noise (Lombard speech) has been reported to be more intelligible than speech produced in quiet (normal speech). This study examined the perception of non-native Lombard speech in terms of intelligibility, comprehensibility, and degree of foreign accent. Twelve Cantonese speakers and a comparison group of English speakers read simple true and false English statements in quiet and in 70 dB of masking noise. Lombard and normal utterances were mixed with noise at a constant signal-to-noise ratio, and presented along with noise-free stimuli to eight new English listeners who provided transcription scores, comprehensibility ratings, and accent ratings. Analyses showed that, as expected, utterances presented in noise were less well perceived than were noise-free sentences, and that the Cantonese speakers' productions were more accented, but less intelligible and less comprehensible than those of the English speakers. For both groups of speakers, the Lombard sentences were correctly transcribed more often than their normal utterances in noisy conditions. However, the Cantonese-accented Lombard sentences were not rated as easier to understand than was the normal speech in all conditions. The assigned accent ratings were similar throughout all listening conditions. Implications of these findings will be discussed.

Comparing diagnostic tests on benefit-risk.

PubMed

Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Evans, Scott

2016-01-01

Comparing diagnostic tests on accuracy alone can be inconclusive. For example, a test may have better sensitivity than another test yet worse specificity. Comparing tests on benefit risk may be more conclusive because clinical consequences of diagnostic error are considered. For benefit-risk evaluation, we propose diagnostic yield, the expected distribution of subjects with true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative test results in a hypothetical population. We construct a table of diagnostic yield that includes the number of false positive subjects experiencing adverse consequences from unnecessary work-up. We then develop a decision theory for evaluating tests. The theory provides additional interpretation to quantities in the diagnostic yield table. It also indicates that the expected utility of a test relative to a perfect test is a weighted accuracy measure, the average of sensitivity and specificity weighted for prevalence and relative importance of false positive and false negative testing errors, also interpretable as the cost-benefit ratio of treating non-diseased and diseased subjects. We propose plots of diagnostic yield, weighted accuracy, and relative net benefit of tests as functions of prevalence or cost-benefit ratio. Concepts are illustrated with hypothetical screening tests for colorectal cancer with test positive subjects being referred to colonoscopy.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of preimplantation genetic screening and in vitro fertilization versus expectant management in patients with unexplained recurrent pregnancy loss.

PubMed

Murugappan, Gayathree; Ohno, Mika S; Lathi, Ruth B

2015-05-01

To determine whether in vitro fertilization with preimplantation genetic screening (IVF/PGS) is cost effective compared with expectant management in achieving live birth for patients with unexplained recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL). Decision analytic model comparing costs and clinical outcomes. Academic recurrent pregnancy loss programs. Women with unexplained RPL. IVF/PGS with 24-chromosome screening and expectant management. Cost per live birth. The IVF/PGS strategy had a live-birth rate of 53% and a clinical miscarriage rate of 7%. Expectant management had a live-birth rate of 67% and clinical miscarriage rate of 24%. The IVF/PGS strategy was 100-fold more expensive, costing $45,300 per live birth compared with $418 per live birth with expectant management. In this model, IVF/PGS was not a cost-effective strategy for increasing live birth. Furthermore, the live-birth rate with IVF/PGS needs to be 91% to be cost effective compared with expectant management. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The design and implementation of photoacoustic based laser warning receiver for harsh environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Sherif, Ashraf F.; Ayoub, H. S.; El-Sharkawy, Yasser H.; Gomaa, Walid; Hassan, H. H.

2018-01-01

This paper discusses the implementation of new type of laser warning receiver (LWR) system, based on the detection of photoacoustic signals, induced by high power infrared laser designators pulses on target's surfaces. This system appends conventional optoelectronic based LWR to decrease the false alarm rate (FAR) in harsh environments, where ambient conditions are expected to obstruct optical LWR. To improve the sensitivity of the photoacoustic based LWR system, some metallic and polymeric target shielding materials were studied, in order to cover a friendly civil structure, vehicle or a maritime entity with a low cost large area acoustic detector array shield. A thermographic investigation of target surface material- laser reaction, signal processing and system configuration and functional analysis are also presented.

25 CFR 26.27 - What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... resume preparation, interview techniques, job retention, and related living skills. ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect? 26.27 Section 26.27 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR HUMAN SERVICES JOB...

Opportunity for information search and the effect of false heart rate feedback.

PubMed

Barefoot, John C; Straub, Ronald B

2005-01-01

The role of information search in the attribution of physiological states was investigated by manipulating the subject's opportunity for information search following the presentation of false information about his heart-rate reactions to photographs of female nudes. Consistent with the self-persuasion hypothesis proposed by Valins, the rated attractiveness of the slides was not affected by the false heart-rate feedback for those subjects who were prevented from visually searching the slides. Those subjects who had ample opportunity to view the slides rated those slides accompanied by false information of a heart-rate change as more attractive than those slides which were not paired with a change in heart rate.

Coincidence and coherent data analysis methods for gravitational wave bursts in a network of interferometric detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, Nicolas; Barsuglia, Matteo; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Kreckelbergh, Stephane; Porter, Edward K.

2003-11-01

Network data analysis methods are the only way to properly separate real gravitational wave (GW) transient events from detector noise. They can be divided into two generic classes: the coincidence method and the coherent analysis. The former uses lists of selected events provided by each interferometer belonging to the network and tries to correlate them in time to identify a physical signal. Instead of this binary treatment of detector outputs (signal present or absent), the latter method involves first the merging of the interferometer data and looks for a common pattern, consistent with an assumed GW waveform and a given source location in the sky. The thresholds are only applied later, to validate or not the hypothesis made. As coherent algorithms use more complete information than coincidence methods, they are expected to provide better detection performances, but at a higher computational cost. An efficient filter must yield a good compromise between a low false alarm rate (hence triggering on data at a manageable rate) and a high detection efficiency. Therefore, the comparison of the two approaches is achieved using so-called receiving operating characteristics (ROC), giving the relationship between the false alarm rate and the detection efficiency for a given method. This paper investigates this question via Monte Carlo simulations, using the network model developed in a previous article. Its main conclusions are the following. First, a three-interferometer network such as Virgo-LIGO is found to be too small to reach good detection efficiencies at low false alarm rates: larger configurations are suitable to reach a confidence level high enough to validate as true GW a detected event. In addition, an efficient network must contain interferometers with comparable sensitivities: studying the three-interferometer LIGO network shows that the 2-km interferometer with half sensitivity leads to a strong reduction of performances as compared to a network of three interferometers with full sensitivity. Finally, it is shown that coherent analyses are feasible for burst searches and are clearly more efficient than coincidence strategies. Therefore, developing such methods should be an important goal of a worldwide collaborative data analysis.

Where Have All the Interactions Gone? Estimating the Coverage of Two-Hybrid Protein Interaction Maps

PubMed Central

Huang, Hailiang; Jedynak, Bruno M; Bader, Joel S

2007-01-01

Yeast two-hybrid screens are an important method for mapping pairwise physical interactions between proteins. The fraction of interactions detected in independent screens can be very small, and an outstanding challenge is to determine the reason for the low overlap. Low overlap can arise from either a high false-discovery rate (interaction sets have low overlap because each set is contaminated by a large number of stochastic false-positive interactions) or a high false-negative rate (interaction sets have low overlap because each misses many true interactions). We extend capture–recapture theory to provide the first unified model for false-positive and false-negative rates for two-hybrid screens. Analysis of yeast, worm, and fly data indicates that 25% to 45% of the reported interactions are likely false positives. Membrane proteins have higher false-discovery rates on average, and signal transduction proteins have lower rates. The overall false-negative rate ranges from 75% for worm to 90% for fly, which arises from a roughly 50% false-negative rate due to statistical undersampling and a 55% to 85% false-negative rate due to proteins that appear to be systematically lost from the assays. Finally, statistical model selection conclusively rejects the Erdös-Rényi network model in favor of the power law model for yeast and the truncated power law for worm and fly degree distributions. Much as genome sequencing coverage estimates were essential for planning the human genome sequencing project, the coverage estimates developed here will be valuable for guiding future proteomic screens. All software and datasets are available in Datasets S1 and S2, Figures S1–S5, and Tables S1−S6, and are also available from our Web site, http://www.baderzone.org. PMID:18039026

Validation of a hospital-laboratory workstation for immunohematologic methods.

PubMed

Schoenfeld, Helge; Pretzel, Karin J; von Heymann, Christian; Neuner, Bruno; Kalus, Ulrich; Kiesewetter, Holger; Pruss, Axel

2010-01-01

The FREELYS Nano system (Diagast) is a manual workstation for ABO/D grouping, Rh phenotyping, K typing, and antibody screening (ABS) for immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies only and works with the erythrocyte-magnetized technology (EMT). The principle of EMT is based on magnetization of red blood cells and avoids centrifugation and washing steps. A total of 304 samples were tested with our routine blood bank methods, 100 samples for ABO/D grouping, 196 samples (100 at first evaluation, 96 at second evaluation) for Rh phenotyping and K typing (PK7200, Olympus), and 108 samples for ABS (DiaMed). All samples were tested in parallel with the FREELYS Nano. We found a 100% concordance between the observed (FREELYS Nano) and the expected (Olympus PK7200) results for ABO/D grouping in all 100 samples. For Rh phenotyping and K tests, in 24 of 100 samples false-positive reactions were observed in the first evaluation by the FREELYS Nano. After changing the test kit batch for Rh phenotyping by the manufacturer, a complete concordance in Rh phenotyping and K tests was observed in a second evaluation. For ABS, the FREELYS Nano showed in 4 of 108 samples (3.7%) false-negative reactions for IgG antibodies (two anti-K, one anti-E, one anti-C(w)), and one (0.9%) false-positive reaction. The FREELYS Nano is reliably suited to ABO/D grouping, Rh phenotyping, and K testing. The rate of false-negative reactions for IgG antibodies should be reduced.

Controlling the Rate of GWAS False Discoveries

PubMed Central

Brzyski, Damian; Peterson, Christine B.; Sobczyk, Piotr; Candès, Emmanuel J.; Bogdan, Malgorzata; Sabatti, Chiara

2017-01-01

With the rise of both the number and the complexity of traits of interest, control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in genetic association studies has become an increasingly appealing and accepted target for multiple comparison adjustment. While a number of robust FDR-controlling strategies exist, the nature of this error rate is intimately tied to the precise way in which discoveries are counted, and the performance of FDR-controlling procedures is satisfactory only if there is a one-to-one correspondence between what scientists describe as unique discoveries and the number of rejected hypotheses. The presence of linkage disequilibrium between markers in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) often leads researchers to consider the signal associated to multiple neighboring SNPs as indicating the existence of a single genomic locus with possible influence on the phenotype. This a posteriori aggregation of rejected hypotheses results in inflation of the relevant FDR. We propose a novel approach to FDR control that is based on prescreening to identify the level of resolution of distinct hypotheses. We show how FDR-controlling strategies can be adapted to account for this initial selection both with theoretical results and simulations that mimic the dependence structure to be expected in GWAS. We demonstrate that our approach is versatile and useful when the data are analyzed using both tests based on single markers and multiple regression. We provide an R package that allows practitioners to apply our procedure on standard GWAS format data, and illustrate its performance on lipid traits in the North Finland Birth Cohort 66 cohort study. PMID:27784720

Controlling the Rate of GWAS False Discoveries.

PubMed

Brzyski, Damian; Peterson, Christine B; Sobczyk, Piotr; Candès, Emmanuel J; Bogdan, Malgorzata; Sabatti, Chiara

2017-01-01

With the rise of both the number and the complexity of traits of interest, control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in genetic association studies has become an increasingly appealing and accepted target for multiple comparison adjustment. While a number of robust FDR-controlling strategies exist, the nature of this error rate is intimately tied to the precise way in which discoveries are counted, and the performance of FDR-controlling procedures is satisfactory only if there is a one-to-one correspondence between what scientists describe as unique discoveries and the number of rejected hypotheses. The presence of linkage disequilibrium between markers in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) often leads researchers to consider the signal associated to multiple neighboring SNPs as indicating the existence of a single genomic locus with possible influence on the phenotype. This a posteriori aggregation of rejected hypotheses results in inflation of the relevant FDR. We propose a novel approach to FDR control that is based on prescreening to identify the level of resolution of distinct hypotheses. We show how FDR-controlling strategies can be adapted to account for this initial selection both with theoretical results and simulations that mimic the dependence structure to be expected in GWAS. We demonstrate that our approach is versatile and useful when the data are analyzed using both tests based on single markers and multiple regression. We provide an R package that allows practitioners to apply our procedure on standard GWAS format data, and illustrate its performance on lipid traits in the North Finland Birth Cohort 66 cohort study. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Misdiagnosis of HIV infection during a South African community-based survey: implications for rapid HIV testing

PubMed Central

Kufa, Tendesayi; Kharsany, Ayesha BM; Cawood, Cherie; Khanyile, David; Lewis, Lara; Grobler, Anneke; Chipeta, Zawadi; Bere, Alfred; Glenshaw, Mary; Puren, Adrian

2017-01-01

Abstract Introduction: We describe the overall accuracy and performance of a serial rapid HIV testing algorithm used in community-based HIV testing in the context of a population-based household survey conducted in two sub-districts of uMgungundlovu district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, against reference fourth-generation HIV-1/2 antibody and p24 antigen combination immunoassays. We discuss implications of the findings on rapid HIV testing programmes. Methods: Cross-sectional design: Following enrolment into the survey, questionnaires were administered to eligible and consenting participants in order to obtain demographic and HIV-related data. Peripheral blood samples were collected for HIV-related testing. Participants were offered community-based HIV testing in the home by trained field workers using a serial algorithm with two rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in series. In the laboratory, reference HIV testing was conducted using two fourth-generation immunoassays with all positives in the confirmatory test considered true positives. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and false-positive and false-negative rates were determined. Results: Of 10,236 individuals enrolled in the survey, 3740 were tested in the home (median age 24 years (interquartile range 19–31 years), 42.1% males and HIV positivity on RDT algorithm 8.0%). From those tested, 3729 (99.7%) had a definitive RDT result as well as a laboratory immunoassay result. The overall accuracy of the RDT when compared to the fourth-generation immunoassays was 98.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 98.5–99.2). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 91.1% (95% CI 87.5–93.7), 99.9% (95% CI 99.8–100), 99.3% (95% CI 97.4–99.8) and 99.1% (95% CI 98.8–99.4) respectively. The false-positive and false-negative rates were 0.06% (95% CI 0.01–0.24) and 8.9% (95% CI 6.3–12.53). Compared to true positives, false negatives were more likely to be recently infected on limited antigen avidity assay and to report antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. Conclusions: The overall accuracy of the RDT algorithm was high. However, there were few false positives, and the sensitivity was lower than expected with high false negatives, despite implementation of quality assurance measures. False negatives were associated with recent (early) infection and ART exposure. The RDT algorithm was able to correctly identify the majority of HIV infections in community-based HIV testing. Messaging on the potential for false positives and false negatives should be included in these programmes. PMID:28872274

Eternal inflation, bubble collisions, and the disintegration of the persistence of memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freivogel, Ben; Kleban, Matthew; Nicolis, Alberto; Sigurdson, Kris

2009-08-01

We compute the probability distribution for bubble collisions in an inflating false vacuum which decays by bubble nucleation. Our analysis generalizes previous work of Guth, Garriga, and Vilenkin to the case of general cosmological evolution inside the bubble, and takes into account the dynamics of the domain walls that form between the colliding bubbles. We find that incorporating these effects changes the results dramatically: the total expected number of bubble collisions in the past lightcone of a typical observer is N ~ γ Vf/Vi , where γ is the fastest decay rate of the false vacuum, Vf is its vacuum energy, and Vi is the vacuum energy during inflation inside the bubble. This number can be large in realistic models without tuning. In addition, we calculate the angular position and size distribution of the collisions on the cosmic microwave background sky, and demonstrate that the number of bubbles of observable angular size is NLS ~ (Ωk)1/2N, where Ωk is the curvature contribution to the total density at the time of observation. The distribution is almost exactly isotropic.

An empirical investigation into the role of subjective prior probability in searching for potentially missing items

PubMed Central

Fanshawe, T. R.

2015-01-01

There are many examples from the scientific literature of visual search tasks in which the length, scope and success rate of the search have been shown to vary according to the searcher's expectations of whether the search target is likely to be present. This phenomenon has major practical implications, for instance in cancer screening, when the prevalence of the condition is low and the consequences of a missed disease diagnosis are severe. We consider this problem from an empirical Bayesian perspective to explain how the effect of a low prior probability, subjectively assessed by the searcher, might impact on the extent of the search. We show how the searcher's posterior probability that the target is present depends on the prior probability and the proportion of possible target locations already searched, and also consider the implications of imperfect search, when the probability of false-positive and false-negative decisions is non-zero. The theoretical results are applied to two studies of radiologists' visual assessment of pulmonary lesions on chest radiographs. Further application areas in diagnostic medicine and airport security are also discussed. PMID:26587267

Exploratory spatial data analysis of global MODIS active fire data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oom, D.; Pereira, J. M. C.

2013-04-01

We performed an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) of autocorrelation patterns in the NASA MODIS MCD14ML Collection 5 active fire dataset, for the period 2001-2009, at the global scale. The dataset was screened, resulting in an annual rate of false alarms and non-vegetation fires ranging from a minimum of 3.1% in 2003 to a maximum of 4.4% in 2001. Hot bare soils and gas flares were the major sources of false alarms and non-vegetation fires. The data were aggregated at 0.5° resolution for the global and local spatial autocorrelation Fire counts were found to be positively correlated up to distances of around 200 km, and negatively for larger distances. A value of 0.80 (p = 0.001, α = 0.05) for Moran's I indicates strong spatial autocorrelation between fires at global scale, with 60% of all cells displaying significant positive or negative spatial correlation. Different types of spatial autocorrelation were mapped and regression diagnostics allowed for the identification of spatial outlier cells, with fire counts much higher or lower than expected, considering their spatial context.

Clinically relevant hypoglycemia prediction metrics for event mitigation.

PubMed

Harvey, Rebecca A; Dassau, Eyal; Zisser, Howard C; Bevier, Wendy; Seborg, Dale E; Jovanovič, Lois; Doyle, Francis J

2012-08-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a method to compare hypoglycemia prediction algorithms and choose parameter settings for different applications, such as triggering insulin pump suspension or alerting for rescue carbohydrate treatment. Hypoglycemia prediction algorithms with different parameter settings were implemented on an ambulatory dataset containing 490 days from 30 subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus using the Dexcom™ (San Diego, CA) SEVEN™ continuous glucose monitoring system. The performance was evaluated using a proposed set of metrics representing the true-positive ratio, false-positive rate, and distribution of warning times. A prospective, in silico study was performed to show the effect of using different parameter settings to prevent or rescue from hypoglycemia. The retrospective study results suggest the parameter settings for different methods of hypoglycemia mitigation. When rescue carbohydrates are used, a high true-positive ratio, a minimal false-positive rate, and alarms with short warning time are desired. These objectives were met with a 30-min prediction horizon and two successive flags required to alarm: 78% of events were detected with 3.0 false alarms/day and 66% probability of alarms occurring within 30 min of the event. This parameter setting selection was confirmed in silico: treating with rescue carbohydrates reduced the duration of hypoglycemia from 14.9% to 0.5%. However, for a different method, such as pump suspension, this parameter setting only reduced hypoglycemia to 8.7%, as can be expected by the low probability of alarming more than 30 min ahead. The proposed metrics allow direct comparison of hypoglycemia prediction algorithms and selection of parameter settings for different types of hypoglycemia mitigation, as shown in the prospective in silico study in which hypoglycemia was alerted or treated with rescue carbohydrates.

Statistical interpretation of machine learning-based feature importance scores for biomarker discovery.

PubMed

Huynh-Thu, Vân Anh; Saeys, Yvan; Wehenkel, Louis; Geurts, Pierre

2012-07-01

Univariate statistical tests are widely used for biomarker discovery in bioinformatics. These procedures are simple, fast and their output is easily interpretable by biologists but they can only identify variables that provide a significant amount of information in isolation from the other variables. As biological processes are expected to involve complex interactions between variables, univariate methods thus potentially miss some informative biomarkers. Variable relevance scores provided by machine learning techniques, however, are potentially able to highlight multivariate interacting effects, but unlike the p-values returned by univariate tests, these relevance scores are usually not statistically interpretable. This lack of interpretability hampers the determination of a relevance threshold for extracting a feature subset from the rankings and also prevents the wide adoption of these methods by practicians. We evaluated several, existing and novel, procedures that extract relevant features from rankings derived from machine learning approaches. These procedures replace the relevance scores with measures that can be interpreted in a statistical way, such as p-values, false discovery rates, or family wise error rates, for which it is easier to determine a significance level. Experiments were performed on several artificial problems as well as on real microarray datasets. Although the methods differ in terms of computing times and the tradeoff, they achieve in terms of false positives and false negatives, some of them greatly help in the extraction of truly relevant biomarkers and should thus be of great practical interest for biologists and physicians. As a side conclusion, our experiments also clearly highlight that using model performance as a criterion for feature selection is often counter-productive. Python source codes of all tested methods, as well as the MATLAB scripts used for data simulation, can be found in the Supplementary Material.

Evaluation of immunohematologic routine methods using the new erythrocyte-magnetized technology on the QWALYS 2 system.

PubMed

Schoenfeld, Helge; Bulling, Katia; von Heymann, Christian; Neuner, Bruno; Kalus, Ulrich; Kiesewetter, Holger; Pruss, Axel

2009-07-01

QWALYS 2 is a fully automated system for ABO/D grouping, Rh phenotyping, K typing, and antibody screening (ABS). Its new erythrocyte-magnetized technology (EMT) is based on the use of magnetic nanoparticles and avoids centrifugation and washing steps. Overall 499 blood samples were tested with our routine blood bank methods for ABO/D grouping, 313 samples for Rh phenotyping and K typing (microtiter plates; Olympus PK 7200), and 478 samples for ABS (gel centrifugation technique, DiaMed). All samples were tested in parallel with the EMT. In 496 of 499 samples (99.4%), a complete concordance between the observed (QWALYS 2) and the expected results for ABO/D grouping was found. One sample with a weak A in an AB blood group and 2 samples with a weak D were not detected by the QWALYS system. Rh phenotyping and K tests revealed a 100% concordance. In the two ABS techniques, 427 samples were negative in both and 15 samples showed the same antibody specificity in both. Three immunoglobulin M antibodies were as expected negative in EMT and positive by DiaMed. In 32 cases (6.7%), false-positive reactions were observed by EMT due to 22 unspecific reactions (4.6%) and 10 lipemic or fibrinic plasmas (2.1%). One autoantibody was found by EMT only. The EMT is reliably suited to ABO/D grouping, Rh phenotyping, and K testing and is suitable to detect immunoglobulin G red blood cell alloantibodies as well. The rate of false-positive reactions in ABS due to lipemic and fibrinic samples needs to be reduced.

29 CFR Appendix D to Part 4044 - Tables Used To Determine Expected Retirement Age

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Tables Used To Determine Expected Retirement Age D Appendix D to Part 4044 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) PENSION BENEFIT GUARANTY CORPORATION PLAN TERMINATIONS ALLOCATION OF ASSETS IN SINGLE-EMPLOYER PLANS Pt. 4044, App. D Appendix D to Part...

Evaluation of trauma care using TRISS method: the role of adjusted misclassification rate and adjusted w-statistic.

PubMed

Llullaku, Sadik S; Hyseni, Nexhmi Sh; Bytyçi, Cen I; Rexhepi, Sylejman K

2009-01-15

Major trauma is a leading cause of death worldwide. Evaluation of trauma care using Trauma Injury and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) method is focused in trauma outcome (deaths and survivors). For testing TRISS method TRISS misclassification rate is used. Calculating w-statistic, as a difference between observed and TRISS expected survivors, we compare our trauma care results with the TRISS standard. The aim of this study is to analyze interaction between misclassification rate and w-statistic and to adjust these parameters to be closer to the truth. Analysis of components of TRISS misclassification rate and w-statistic and actual trauma outcome. The component of false negative (FN) (by TRISS method unexpected deaths) has two parts: preventable (Pd) and non-preventable (nonPd) trauma deaths. Pd represents inappropriate trauma care of an institution; otherwise nonpreventable trauma deaths represents errors in TRISS method. Removing patients with preventable trauma deaths we get an Adjusted misclassification rate: (FP + FN - Pd)/N or (b+c-Pd)/N. Substracting nonPd from FN value in w-statistic formula we get an Adjusted w-statistic: [FP-(FN - nonPd)]/N, respectively (FP-Pd)/N, or (b-Pd)/N). Because adjusted formulas clean method from inappropriate trauma care, and clean trauma care from the methods error, TRISS adjusted misclassification rate and adjusted w-statistic gives more realistic results and may be used in researches of trauma outcome.

Leading Causes of Death Contributing to Decrease in Life Expectancy Gap Between Black and White Populations: United States, 1999-2013.

PubMed

Kochanek, Kenneth D; Anderson, Robert N; Arias, Elizabeth

2015-11-01

Life expectancy at birth has increased steadily since 1900 to a record 78.8 years in 2013. But differences in life expectancy between the white and black populations still exist, despite a decrease in the life expectancy gap from 5.9 years in 1999 to 3.6 years in 2013. Differences in the change over time in the leading causes of death for the black and white populations have contributed to this decrease in the gap in life expectancy. Between 1999 and 2013, the decrease in the life expectancy gap between the black and white populations was mostly due to greater decreases in mortality from heart disease, cancer, HIV disease, unintentional injuries, and perinatal conditions among the black population. Similarly, the decrease in the gap between black and white male life expectancy was due to greater decreases in death rates for HIV disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, heart disease, and perinatal conditions in black males. For black females, greater decreases in diabetes death rates, combined with decreased rates for heart disease and HIV disease, were the major causes contributing to the decrease in the life expectancy gap with white females. The decrease in the gap in life expectancy between the white and black populations would have been larger than 3.6 years if not for increases in death rates for the black population for aortic aneurysm, Alzheimer’s disease, and maternal conditions. For black males, the causes that showed increases in death rates over white males were hypertension, aortic aneurysm, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and kidney disease, while the causes that showed increases in death rates for black females were Alzheimer’s disease, maternal conditions, and atherosclerosis. This NCHS Data Brief is the second in a series of data briefs that explore the causes of death contributing to differences in life expectancy between detailed ethnic and racial populations in the United States. The first data brief focused on the racial differences in life expectancy for a single year, 2010 (3). All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Infants' Reasoning about Others' False Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Hyun-joo; Baillargeon, Renee

2008-01-01

Prior research suggests that children younger than age 3 or 4 do not understand that an agent may be deceived by an object's misleading appearance. The authors asked whether 14.5-month-olds would give evidence in a violation-of-expectation task that they understand that agents may form false perceptions. Infants first watched events in which an…

True and false memories, parietal cortex, and confidence judgments

PubMed Central

Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.

2015-01-01

Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory). Accordingly, it has often been difficult to know whether a finding is related to memory confidence or memory accuracy. In the current study, participants made recognition memory judgments with confidence ratings in response to previously studied scenes and novel scenes. The left hippocampus and 16 other brain regions distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were different for the two conditions. Only three regions (all in the parietal cortex) distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were equated. These findings illustrate the utility of taking confidence ratings into account when identifying brain regions associated with true and false memories. Neural correlates of true and false memories are most easily interpreted when confidence ratings are similar for the two kinds of memories. PMID:26472645

Comparison study of the rates of manual peripheral blood smear review from 3 automated hematology analyzers, Unicel DxH 800, ADVIA 2120i, and XE 2100, using international consensus group guidelines.

PubMed

Kim, Sue Jung; Kim, Yoonjung; Shin, Saeam; Song, Jaewoo; Choi, Jong Rak

2012-11-01

In the clinical laboratory, it is important both to reduce the number of peripheral blood slide reviews to save time and money and to avoid reporting false results. To determine differences in the slide review rates of 3 widely used automated hematologic analyzers, the Unicel DxH 800 (Beckman Coulter Inc, Fullerton, California), ADVIA 2120i (Siemens Diagnostics, Tarrytown, New York), and XE 2100 (Sysmex, Kobe, Japan), using International Consensus Group for Hematology Review guidelines. A total of 1485 samples were tested, and 300 were manually reviewed. Slide review rates, sensitivity, specificity, and false-positive and false-negative rates were estimated using consensus group rules and compared using χ(2) tests, Fisher exact tests, or generalized estimating equations. Unicel DxH 800, ADVIA 2120i, and XE 2100 showed 22.8%, 20.2%, and 28.6% slide review rates; 14.3%, 14.3%, and 9.7% false-negative rates; and 13.7, 11.3%, and 17.3% false-positive rates, respectively. All analyzers showed significantly higher false-negative rates than that of the consensus group (2.9%). False-negative rates were higher than the recommended levels. Among 3 automated hematologic analyzers, XE 2100 showed the highest rate of slide review. Because the present study clearly shows that the slide review rates have distinct characteristics among the studied analyzers, each individual laboratory should consider selecting the most appropriate analyzer according to clinical characteristics. Analyzers with high sensitivity may be advantageous in outpatient settings for screening patients, whereas analyzers with high specificity may be beneficial in inpatient settings for efficient patient care.

The value of confirmatory testing in early infant HIV diagnosis programmes in South Africa: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Dunning, Lorna; Francke, Jordan A; Mallampati, Divya; MacLean, Rachel L; Penazzato, Martina; Hou, Taige; Myer, Landon; Abrams, Elaine J; Walensky, Rochelle P; Leroy, Valériane; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Ciaranello, Andrea

2017-11-01

The specificity of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) used for early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV infection is <100%, leading some HIV-uninfected infants to be incorrectly identified as HIV-infected. The World Health Organization recommends that infants undergo a second NAAT to confirm any positive test result, but implementation is limited. Our objective was to determine the impact and cost-effectiveness of confirmatory HIV testing for EID programmes in South Africa. Using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Pediatric model, we simulated EID testing at age 6 weeks for HIV-exposed infants without and with confirmatory testing. We assumed a NAAT cost of US$25, NAAT specificity of 99.6%, NAAT sensitivity of 100% for infants infected in pregnancy or at least 4 weeks prior to testing, and a mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rate at 12 months of 4.9%; we simulated guideline-concordant rates of testing uptake, result return, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (100%). After diagnosis, infants were linked to and retained in care for 10 years (false-positive) or lifelong (true-positive). All parameters were varied widely in sensitivity analyses. Outcomes included number of infants with false-positive diagnoses linked to ART per 1,000 ART initiations, life expectancy (LE, in years) and per-person lifetime HIV-related healthcare costs. Both without and with confirmatory testing, LE was 26.2 years for HIV-infected infants and 61.4 years for all HIV-exposed infants; clinical outcomes for truly infected infants did not differ by strategy. Without confirmatory testing, 128/1,000 ART initiations were false-positive diagnoses; with confirmatory testing, 1/1,000 ART initiations were false-positive diagnoses. Because confirmatory testing averted costly HIV care and ART in truly HIV-uninfected infants, it was cost-saving: total cost US$1,790/infant tested, compared to US$1,830/infant tested without confirmatory testing. Confirmatory testing remained cost-saving unless NAAT cost exceeded US$400 or the HIV-uninfected status of infants incorrectly identified as infected was ascertained and ART stopped within 3 months of starting. Limitations include uncertainty in the data used in the model, which we examined with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We also excluded clinical harms to HIV-uninfected infants incorrectly treated with ART after false-positive diagnosis (e.g., medication toxicities); including these outcomes would further increase the value of confirmatory testing. Without confirmatory testing, in settings with MTCT rates similar to that of South Africa, more than 10% of infants who initiate ART may reflect false-positive diagnoses. Confirmatory testing prevents inappropriate HIV diagnosis, is cost-saving, and should be adopted in all EID programmes.

25 CFR 26.27 - What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect? 26.27 Section 26.27 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR HUMAN SERVICES JOB PLACEMENT AND TRAINING PROGRAM Job Placement Services § 26.27 What kind of Job Placement support services...

25 CFR 26.27 - What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect? 26.27 Section 26.27 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR HUMAN SERVICES JOB PLACEMENT AND TRAINING PROGRAM Job Placement Services § 26.27 What kind of Job Placement support services...

25 CFR 26.27 - What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect? 26.27 Section 26.27 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR HUMAN SERVICES JOB PLACEMENT AND TRAINING PROGRAM Job Placement Services § 26.27 What kind of Job Placement support services...

A careful look at ECG sampling frequency and R-peak interpolation on short-term measures of heart rate variability.

PubMed

Ellis, Robert J; Zhu, Bilei; Koenig, Julian; Thayer, Julian F; Wang, Ye

2015-09-01

As the literature on heart rate variability (HRV) continues to burgeon, so too do the challenges faced with comparing results across studies conducted under different recording conditions and analysis options. Two important methodological considerations are (1) what sampling frequency (SF) to use when digitizing the electrocardiogram (ECG), and (2) whether to interpolate an ECG to enhance the accuracy of R-peak detection. Although specific recommendations have been offered on both points, the evidence used to support them can be seen to possess a number of methodological limitations. The present study takes a new and careful look at how SF influences 24 widely used time- and frequency-domain measures of HRV through the use of a Monte Carlo-based analysis of false positive rates (FPRs) associated with two-sample tests on independent sets of healthy subjects. HRV values from the first sample were calculated at 1000 Hz, and HRV values from the second sample were calculated at progressively lower SFs (and either with or without R-peak interpolation). When R-peak interpolation was applied prior to HRV calculation, FPRs for all HRV measures remained very close to 0.05 (i.e. the theoretically expected value), even when the second sample had an SF well below 100 Hz. Without R-peak interpolation, all HRV measures held their expected FPR down to 125 Hz (and far lower, in the case of some measures). These results provide concrete insights into the statistical validity of comparing datasets obtained at (potentially) very different SFs; comparisons which are particularly relevant for the domains of meta-analysis and mobile health.

Blind detection of isolated astrophysical pulses in the spatial Fourier transform domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmid, Natalia A.; Prestage, Richard M.

2018-07-01

We present a novel approach for the detection of isolated transients in pulsar surveys and fast radio transient observations. Rather than the conventional approach of performing a computationally expensive blind dispersion measure search, we take the spatial Fourier transform (SFT) of short (˜ few seconds) sections of data. A transient will have a characteristic signature in the SFT domain, and we present a blind statistic which may be used to detect this signature at an empirical zero false alarm rate. The method has been evaluated using simulations, and also applied to two fast radio burst observations. In addition to its use for current observations, we expect this method will be extremely beneficial for future multibeam observations made by telescopes equipped with phased array feeds.

Blind detection of isolated astrophysical pulses in the spatial Fourier transform domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmid, Natalia A.; Prestage, Richard M.

2018-04-01

We present a novel approach for the detection of isolated transients in pulsar surveys and fast radio transient observations. Rather than the conventional approach of performing a computationally expensive blind DM search, we take the spatial Fourier transform (SFT) of short (˜ few seconds) sections of data. A transient will have a characteristic signature in the SFT domain, and we present a blind statistic which may be used to detect this signature at an empirical zero False Alarm Rate (FAR). The method has been evaluated using simulations, and also applied to two fast radio burst observations. In addition to its use for current observations, we expect this method will be extremely beneficial for future multi-beam observations made by telescopes equipped with phased array feeds.

The False Memory and the Mirror Effects: The Role of Familiarity and Backward Association in Creating False Recollections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anaki, D.; Faran, Y.; Ben-Shalom, D.; Henik, A.

2005-01-01

The mirror effect refers to a phenomenon where the hit rate is higher for low frequency words while the false alarm rate is higher for high frequency distractors. Using a false memory paradigm (Roediger & McDermott, 1995), we examined whether false memory for non-presented lures would be influenced by the lure's familiarity. The results revealed…

Expectations and final evaluation of complete dentures by patients, dentist and dental technician.

PubMed

Marachlioglou, C R M Z; Dos Santos, J F F; Cunha, V P P; Marchini, Leonardo

2010-07-01

There is a poor association between the dentist's evaluation of denture quality and patients' satisfaction with their dentures. Possible differences between dental professionals and patients' expectations might help explain differences in outcome evaluations. This study compared scores given by a dentist, a dental technician and patients for their expectations before and their final evaluation after complete dentures treatment. Twenty completely edentulous patients, a prosthodontist and a dental technician provided scores for the expected aesthetic and functional results of their dentures based on a visual analogue scale at baseline. Post-treatment completion ratings were given after adjustments, by dentist and patients. The dental technician provided post-treatment completion ratings after completing the dentures. The patients had higher expectations than the dental technician and the dentist perceived for both aesthetic and function (P < 0.001). The patients also presented higher post-treatment completion ratings than the dental professionals perceived for final aesthetics (P = 0.016, Kendall's W = 0.207) and function (P = 0.002, Kendall's W = 0.303). Only the dentist presented a statistically significant difference between expectations (lower) and final (higher) outcomes for aesthetics (P = 0.017) and function (P = 0.003). There was no correlation between expectations and post-treatment completion ratings according to the patients' age. There was also no correlation between the patients' gender and expectation scores. Patients presented higher expectations regarding their dentures than dental professionals. The dentist believed that dentures would bring fewer benefits than patients did, but his perception of denture benefits post-treatment was significantly higher than his expectations.

Evaluating methods of correcting for multiple comparisons implemented in SPM12 in social neuroscience fMRI studies: an example from moral psychology.

PubMed

Han, Hyemin; Glenn, Andrea L

2018-06-01

In fMRI research, the goal of correcting for multiple comparisons is to identify areas of activity that reflect true effects, and thus would be expected to replicate in future studies. Finding an appropriate balance between trying to minimize false positives (Type I error) while not being too stringent and omitting true effects (Type II error) can be challenging. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of these types of errors may differ for different areas of study. In many areas of social neuroscience that involve complex processes and considerable individual differences, such as the study of moral judgment, effects are typically smaller and statistical power weaker, leading to the suggestion that less stringent corrections that allow for more sensitivity may be beneficial and also result in more false positives. Using moral judgment fMRI data, we evaluated four commonly used methods for multiple comparison correction implemented in Statistical Parametric Mapping 12 by examining which method produced the most precise overlap with results from a meta-analysis of relevant studies and with results from nonparametric permutation analyses. We found that voxelwise thresholding with familywise error correction based on Random Field Theory provides a more precise overlap (i.e., without omitting too few regions or encompassing too many additional regions) than either clusterwise thresholding, Bonferroni correction, or false discovery rate correction methods.

Do Student Evaluations of Teaching Depend on the Distribution of Expected Grade?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matos-Diaz, Horacio; Ragan, James F., Jr.

2010-01-01

Prior research suggests that student evaluations of teaching may depend on the average grade expected in a class. We hypothesize that, because of risk aversion, student ratings also depend on the distribution of expected grades. As predicted, student ratings at the University of Puerto Rico at Bayamon are significantly and negatively related to…

A novel ECG detector performance metric and its relationship with missing and false heart rate limit alarms.

PubMed

Daluwatte, Chathuri; Vicente, Jose; Galeotti, Loriano; Johannesen, Lars; Strauss, David G; Scully, Christopher G

Performance of ECG beat detectors is traditionally assessed on long intervals (e.g.: 30min), but only incorrect detections within a short interval (e.g.: 10s) may cause incorrect (i.e., missed+false) heart rate limit alarms (tachycardia and bradycardia). We propose a novel performance metric based on distribution of incorrect beat detection over a short interval and assess its relationship with incorrect heart rate limit alarm rates. Six ECG beat detectors were assessed using performance metrics over long interval (sensitivity and positive predictive value over 30min) and short interval (Area Under empirical cumulative distribution function (AUecdf) for short interval (i.e., 10s) sensitivity and positive predictive value) on two ECG databases. False heart rate limit and asystole alarm rates calculated using a third ECG database were then correlated (Spearman's rank correlation) with each calculated performance metric. False alarm rates correlated with sensitivity calculated on long interval (i.e., 30min) (ρ=-0.8 and p<0.05) and AUecdf for sensitivity (ρ=0.9 and p<0.05) in all assessed ECG databases. Sensitivity over 30min grouped the two detectors with lowest false alarm rates while AUecdf for sensitivity provided further information to identify the two beat detectors with highest false alarm rates as well, which was inseparable with sensitivity over 30min. Short interval performance metrics can provide insights on the potential of a beat detector to generate incorrect heart rate limit alarms. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Revisiting the rise and fall of false recall: presentation rate effects depend on retention interval.

PubMed

Smith, Troy A; Kimball, Daniel R

2012-01-01

Leading theories of false memory predict that veridical and false recall of lists of semantically associated words can be dissociated by varying the presentation speed during study. Specifically, as presentation rate increases from milliseconds to seconds, veridical recall is predicted to increase monotonically while false recall is predicted to show a rapid rise and then a slow decrease--a pattern shown by McDermott and Watson (2001) in a study using immediate recall tests. In three experiments we tested the generality of the effects of rapid presentation rates on veridical and false memory. In Experiments 1 and 2 participants exhibited high levels of false recall on a delayed recall test, even for very fast stimulus onset asynchronies (SOA)--contrary to predictions from leading theories of false memory. When we switched to an immediate recall test in Experiment 3 we replicated the pattern predicted by the theories and observed by McDermott and Watson. Follow-up analyses further showed that the relative output position of false recalls is not affected by presentation rate, contrary to predictions from fuzzy trace theory. Implications for theories of false memory, including activation monitoring theory and fuzzy trace theory, are discussed.

Uncertainty in biological monitoring: a framework for data collection and analysis to account for multiple sources of sampling bias

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Hooten, Melvin B.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

Biological monitoring programmes are increasingly relying upon large volumes of citizen-science data to improve the scope and spatial coverage of information, challenging the scientific community to develop design and model-based approaches to improve inference.Recent statistical models in ecology have been developed to accommodate false-negative errors, although current work points to false-positive errors as equally important sources of bias. This is of particular concern for the success of any monitoring programme given that rates as small as 3% could lead to the overestimation of the occurrence of rare events by as much as 50%, and even small false-positive rates can severely bias estimates of occurrence dynamics.We present an integrated, computationally efficient Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for false-positive and false-negative errors in detection/non-detection data. Our model combines independent, auxiliary data sources with field observations to improve the estimation of false-positive rates, when a subset of field observations cannot be validated a posteriori or assumed as perfect. We evaluated the performance of the model across a range of occurrence rates, false-positive and false-negative errors, and quantity of auxiliary data.The model performed well under all simulated scenarios, and we were able to identify critical auxiliary data characteristics which resulted in improved inference. We applied our false-positive model to a large-scale, citizen-science monitoring programme for anurans in the north-eastern United States, using auxiliary data from an experiment designed to estimate false-positive error rates. Not correcting for false-positive rates resulted in biased estimates of occupancy in 4 of the 10 anuran species we analysed, leading to an overestimation of the average number of occupied survey routes by as much as 70%.The framework we present for data collection and analysis is able to efficiently provide reliable inference for occurrence patterns using data from a citizen-science monitoring programme. However, our approach is applicable to data generated by any type of research and monitoring programme, independent of skill level or scale, when effort is placed on obtaining auxiliary information on false-positive rates.

Eyewitness confidence in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a criterion shift account for sequential mistaken identification overconfidence.

PubMed

Dobolyi, David G; Dodson, Chad S

2013-12-01

Confidence judgments for eyewitness identifications play an integral role in determining guilt during legal proceedings. Past research has shown that confidence in positive identifications is strongly associated with accuracy. Using a standard lineup recognition paradigm, we investigated accuracy using signal detection and ROC analyses, along with the tendency to choose a face with both simultaneous and sequential lineups. We replicated past findings of reduced rates of choosing with sequential as compared to simultaneous lineups, but notably found an accuracy advantage in favor of simultaneous lineups. Moreover, our analysis of the confidence-accuracy relationship revealed two key findings. First, we observed a sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect: despite an overall reduction in false alarms, confidence for false alarms that did occur was higher with sequential lineups than with simultaneous lineups, with no differences in confidence for correct identifications. This sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect is an expected byproduct of the use of a more conservative identification criterion with sequential than with simultaneous lineups. Second, we found a steady drop in confidence for mistaken identifications (i.e., foil identifications and false alarms) from the first to the last face in sequential lineups, whereas confidence in and accuracy of correct identifications remained relatively stable. Overall, we observed that sequential lineups are both less accurate and produce higher confidence false identifications than do simultaneous lineups. Given the increasing prominence of sequential lineups in our legal system, our data argue for increased scrutiny and possibly a wholesale reevaluation of this lineup format. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Consumer concerns and expectations about novel food processing technologies: effects on product liking.

PubMed

Cardello, Armand V

2003-06-01

Eighty-eight consumers participated in a blind pre-test in which they rated their baseline preference for chocolate pudding, their liking of three tasted brands of chocolate pudding, and their level of concern for 20 different food processing and preservation technologies. All returned one month later and tasted the same puddings, but this time they were informed that they had been processed by one of several different novel or traditional food processing techniques. Different sub-groups were informed of the name of the process, the name plus a factual description of the process, or the name, the factual description, plus a benefit statement. Ratings of expected liking were obtained before and after viewing the samples, but before tasting them. Finally, subjects tasted and rated the products for actual liking and a sub-group rated their concern levels for the same 20 technologies rated in the pre-test. Pre-test results showed females to have significantly higher concern levels for all technologies. Individuals who had demonstrated a willingness to consume foods processed by one novel technology (irradiation) had lower concern ratings for all technologies. Ratings of concern were negatively correlated with expected liking for products believed to be processed by the technologies. Expected liking ratings were positively influenced by visual exposure to the product and by a safety and benefit statement. Linear regression of the change in product liking as a function of whether products were better or worse than expected supported an assimilation model of the effect of disconfirmed expectations on liking/disliking. Lastly, post-test concern levels for many of the technologies were reduced by participation in the study.

False memory in aging resulting from self-referential processing.

PubMed

Rosa, Nicole M; Gutchess, Angela H

2013-11-01

Referencing the self is known to enhance accurate memory, but less is known about how the strategy affects false memory, particularly for highly self-relevant information. Because older adults are more prone to false memories, we tested whether self-referencing increased false memories with age. In 2 studies, older and younger adults rated adjectives for self-descriptiveness and later completed a surprise recognition test comprised of words rated previously for self-descriptiveness and novel lure words. Lure words were subsequently rated for self-descriptiveness in order to assess the impact of self-relevance on false memory. Study 2 introduced commonness judgments as a control condition, such that participants completed a recognition test on adjectives rated for commonness in addition to adjectives in the self-descriptiveness condition. Across both studies, findings indicate an increased response bias to self-referencing that increased hit rates for both older and younger adults but also increased false alarms as information became more self-descriptive, particularly for older adults. Although the present study supports previous literature showing a boost in memory for self-referenced information, the increase in false alarms, especially in older adults, highlights the potential for memory errors, particularly for information that is strongly related to the self.

Are children's memory illusions created differently from those of adults? Evidence from levels-of-processing and divided attention paradigms.

PubMed

Wimmer, Marina C; Howe, Mark L

2010-09-01

In two experiments, we investigated the robustness and automaticity of adults' and children's generation of false memories by using a levels-of-processing paradigm (Experiment 1) and a divided attention paradigm (Experiment 2). The first experiment revealed that when information was encoded at a shallow level, true recognition rates decreased for all ages. For false recognition, when information was encoded on a shallow level, we found a different pattern for young children compared with that for older children and adults. False recognition rates were related to the overall amount of correctly remembered information for 7-year-olds, whereas no such association was found for the other age groups. In the second experiment, divided attention decreased true recognition for all ages. In contrast, children's (7- and 11-year-olds) false recognition rates were again dependent on the overall amount of correctly remembered information, whereas adults' false recognition was left unaffected. Overall, children's false recognition rates changed when levels of processing or divided attention was manipulated in comparison with adults. Together, these results suggest that there may be both quantitative and qualitative changes in false memory rates with age. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AzTEC millimetre survey of the COSMOS field - I. Data reduction and source catalogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, K. S.; Austermann, J. E.; Perera, T. A.; Wilson, G. W.; Aretxaga, I.; Bock, J. J.; Hughes, D. H.; Kang, Y.; Kim, S.; Mauskopf, P. D.; Sanders, D. B.; Scoville, N.; Yun, M. S.

2008-04-01

We present a 1.1 mm wavelength imaging survey covering 0.3 deg2 in the COSMOS field. These data, obtained with the AzTEC continuum camera on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope, were centred on a prominent large-scale structure overdensity which includes a rich X-ray cluster at z ~ 0.73. A total of 50 mm-galaxy candidates, with a significance ranging from 3.5 to 8.5σ, are extracted from the central 0.15 deg2 area which has a uniform sensitivity of ~1.3 mJybeam-1. 16 sources are detected with S/N >= 4.5, where the expected false-detection rate is zero, of which a surprisingly large number (9) have intrinsic (deboosted) fluxes >=5 mJy at 1.1 mm. Assuming the emission is dominated by radiation from dust, heated by a massive population of young, optically obscured stars, then these bright AzTEC sources have far-infrared luminosities >6 × 1012Lsolar and star formation rates >1100Msolaryr-1. Two of these nine bright AzTEC sources are found towards the extreme peripheral region of the X-ray cluster, whilst the remainder are distributed across the larger scale overdensity. We describe the AzTEC data reduction pipeline, the source-extraction algorithm, and the characterization of the source catalogue, including the completeness, flux deboosting correction, false-detection rate and the source positional uncertainty, through an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations. We conclude with a preliminary comparison, via a stacked analysis, of the overlapping MIPS 24-μm data and radio data with this AzTEC map of the COSMOS field.

Statistical controversies in clinical research: building the bridge to phase II-efficacy estimation in dose-expansion cohorts.

PubMed

Boonstra, P S; Braun, T M; Taylor, J M G; Kidwell, K M; Bellile, E L; Daignault, S; Zhao, L; Griffith, K A; Lawrence, T S; Kalemkerian, G P; Schipper, M J

2017-07-01

Regulatory agencies and others have expressed concern about the uncritical use of dose expansion cohorts (DECs) in phase I oncology trials. Nonetheless, by several metrics-prevalence, size, and number-their popularity is increasing. Although early efficacy estimation in defined populations is a common primary endpoint of DECs, the types of designs best equipped to identify efficacy signals have not been established. We conducted a simulation study of six phase I design templates with multiple DECs: three dose-assignment/adjustment mechanisms multiplied by two analytic approaches for estimating efficacy after the trial is complete. We also investigated the effect of sample size and interim futility analysis on trial performance. Identifying populations in which the treatment is efficacious (true positives) and weeding out inefficacious treatment/populations (true negatives) are competing goals in these trials. Thus, we estimated true and false positive rates for each design. Adaptively updating the MTD during the DEC improved true positive rates by 8-43% compared with fixing the dose during the DEC phase while maintaining false positive rates. Inclusion of an interim futility analysis decreased the number of patients treated under inefficacious DECs without hurting performance. A substantial gain in efficiency is obtainable using a design template that statistically models toxicity and efficacy against dose level during expansion. Design choices for dose expansion should be motivated by and based upon expected performance. Similar to the common practice in single-arm phase II trials, cohort sample sizes should be justified with respect to their primary aim and include interim analyses to allow for early stopping. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Coordinate based random effect size meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies.

PubMed

Tench, C R; Tanasescu, Radu; Constantinescu, C S; Auer, D P; Cottam, W J

2017-06-01

Low power in neuroimaging studies can make them difficult to interpret, and Coordinate based meta-analysis (CBMA) may go some way to mitigating this issue. CBMA has been used in many analyses to detect where published functional MRI or voxel-based morphometry studies testing similar hypotheses report significant summary results (coordinates) consistently. Only the reported coordinates and possibly t statistics are analysed, and statistical significance of clusters is determined by coordinate density. Here a method of performing coordinate based random effect size meta-analysis and meta-regression is introduced. The algorithm (ClusterZ) analyses both coordinates and reported t statistic or Z score, standardised by the number of subjects. Statistical significance is determined not by coordinate density, but by a random effects meta-analyses of reported effects performed cluster-wise using standard statistical methods and taking account of censoring inherent in the published summary results. Type 1 error control is achieved using the false cluster discovery rate (FCDR), which is based on the false discovery rate. This controls both the family wise error rate under the null hypothesis that coordinates are randomly drawn from a standard stereotaxic space, and the proportion of significant clusters that are expected under the null. Such control is necessary to avoid propagating and even amplifying the very issues motivating the meta-analysis in the first place. ClusterZ is demonstrated on both numerically simulated data and on real data from reports of grey matter loss in multiple sclerosis (MS) and syndromes suggestive of MS, and of painful stimulus in healthy controls. The software implementation is available to download and use freely. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.W.; Weir, Linda A.; McClintock, Brett T.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Bailey, Larissa L.; Simons, Theodore R.

2012-01-01

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, that recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI: -46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%; -3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently, but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.

Cognitive Dissonance or Revenge? Student Grades and Course Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maurer, Trent W.

2006-01-01

I tested 2 competing theories to explain the connection between students' expected grades and ratings of instructors: cognitive dissonance and revenge. Cognitive dissonance theory holds that students who expect poor grades rate instructors poorly to minimize ego threat whereas the revenge theory holds that students rate instructors poorly in an…

Forensic discrimination of copper wire using trace element concentrations.

PubMed

Dettman, Joshua R; Cassabaum, Alyssa A; Saunders, Christopher P; Snyder, Deanna L; Buscaglia, JoAnn

2014-08-19

Copper may be recovered as evidence in high-profile cases such as thefts and improvised explosive device incidents; comparison of copper samples from the crime scene and those associated with the subject of an investigation can provide probative associative evidence and investigative support. A solution-based inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry method for measuring trace element concentrations in high-purity copper was developed using standard reference materials. The method was evaluated for its ability to use trace element profiles to statistically discriminate between copper samples considering the precision of the measurement and manufacturing processes. The discriminating power was estimated by comparing samples chosen on the basis of the copper refining and production process to represent the within-source (samples expected to be similar) and between-source (samples expected to be different) variability using multivariate parametric- and empirical-based data simulation models with bootstrap resampling. If the false exclusion rate is set to 5%, >90% of the copper samples can be correctly determined to originate from different sources using a parametric-based model and >87% with an empirical-based approach. These results demonstrate the potential utility of the developed method for the comparison of copper samples encountered as forensic evidence.

Avian Conservation Areas as a Proxy for Contaminated Soil Remediation

PubMed Central

Lin, Wei-Chih; Lin, Yu-Pin; Anthony, Johnathen; Ding, Tsun-Su

2015-01-01

Remediation prioritization frequently falls short of systematically evaluating the underlying ecological value of different sites. This study presents a novel approach to delineating sites that are both contaminated by any of eight heavy metals and have high habitat value to high-priority species. The conservation priority of each planning site herein was based on the projected distributions of eight protected bird species, simulated using 900 outputs of species distribution models (SDMs) and the subsequent application of a systematic conservation tool. The distributions of heavy metal concentrations were generated using a geostatistical joint-simulation approach. The uncertainties in the heavy metal distributions were quantified in terms of variability among 1000 realization sets. Finally, a novel remediation decision-making approach was presented for delineating contaminated sites in need of remediation based on the spatial uncertainties of multiple realizations and the priorities of conservation areas. The results thus obtained demonstrate that up to 42% of areas of high conservation priority are also contaminated by one or more of the heavy metal contaminants of interest. Moreover, as the proportion of the land for proposed remediated increased, the projected area of the pollution-free habitat also increased. Overall uncertainty, in terms of the false positive contamination rate, also increased. These results indicate that the proposed decision-making approach successfully accounted for the intrinsic trade-offs among a high number of pollution-free habitats, low false positive rates and robustness of expected decision outcomes. PMID:26193297

Perceived Health Status: Is Obesity Perceived as a Risk Factor and Disease?

PubMed Central

Visscher, Tommy L.S.; Lakerveld, Jeroen; Olsen, Nanna; Küpers, Leanne; Ramalho, Sofia; Keaver, Laura; Brei, Christina; Bjune, Jan-Inge; Ezquerro, Silvia; Yumuk, Volkan

2017-01-01

One might expect that a perception of obesity being a risk factor and disease, contributes to effective obesity prevention and management strategies. However, obesity rates continue to increase worldwide. The question arises whether obesity is truly perceived as a risk factor and a disease. This paper aims at describing perception of obesity as risk factor and disease among individuals seeking care, individuals not seeking care, the society, and different professionals having a role in the field of obesity. The paper is a reflection of the lecture on the topic that was given at the EASO's New Investigators United's Summer School 2016 in Portugal and the discussion with the new investigators and other senior speakers. Individual obese patients seeking help are very much aware of obesity being a risk factor and disease, but perceptions regarding obesity seem to be flawed among those who do not seek help for obesity. Also, misperceptions regarding obesity play a role at different levels, including society, different political levels, the fields of health care and social work, prevention organizations, and the food and marketing industry. The food and marketing industry has an enormous role in changing perceptions by the society and policy makers. Obesity rates will continue to increase as long as individuals, the society, and professionals at different levels have false interpretations of the severity of obesity. Severe action is needed against those who are playing a role in maintaining false perceptions of obesity as a risk factor and disease. PMID:28278496

50 CFR 84.49 - What if the project costs more or less than originally expected?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false What if the project costs more or less... § 84.49 What if the project costs more or less than originally expected? All requests for additional... grants. Any monies left over after the project is complete, or if the project is not completed, should be...

50 CFR 84.49 - What if the project costs more or less than originally expected?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false What if the project costs more or less... § 84.49 What if the project costs more or less than originally expected? All requests for additional... grants. Any monies left over after the project is complete, or if the project is not completed, should be...

50 CFR 84.49 - What if the project costs more or less than originally expected?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false What if the project costs more or less... § 84.49 What if the project costs more or less than originally expected? All requests for additional... grants. Any monies left over after the project is complete, or if the project is not completed, should be...

Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover.

PubMed

Ellis, Randall P; Albert Ma, Ching-To

2011-01-01

Because less healthy employees value health insurance more than the healthy ones, when health insurance is newly offered job turnover rates for healthier employees decline less than turnover rates for the less healthy. We call this adverse job turnover, and it implies that a firm's expected health costs will increase when health insurance is first offered. Health insurance premiums may fail to adjust sufficiently fast because state regulations restrict annual premium changes, or insurers are reluctant to change premiums rapidly. Even with premiums set at the long run expected costs, some firms may be charged premiums higher than their current expected costs and choose not to offer insurance. High administrative costs at small firms exacerbate this dynamic selection problem. Using 1998-1999 MEDSTAT MarketScan and 1997 Employer Health Insurance Survey data, we find that expected employee health expenditures at firms that offer insurance have lower within-firm and higher between-firm variance than at firms that do not. Turnover rates are systematically higher in industries in which firms are less likely to offer insurance. Simulations of the offer decision capturing between-firm health-cost heterogeneity and expected turnover rates match the observed pattern across firm sizes well. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention.

PubMed

Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

2013-10-19

Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue-stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s(-1)) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations.

Variation in false-positive rates of mammography reading among 1067 radiologists: a population-based assessment.

PubMed

Tan, Alai; Freeman, Daniel H; Goodwin, James S; Freeman, Jean L

2006-12-01

The accuracy of mammography reading varies among radiologists. We conducted a population-based assessment on radiologist variation in false- positive rates of screening mammography and its associated radiologist characteristics. About 27,394 screening mammograms interpreted by 1067 radiologists were identified from a 5% non-cancer sample of Medicare claims during 1998-1999. The data were linked to the American Medical Association Masterfile to obtain radiologist characteristics. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to examine the radiologist variation in false-positive rates of screening mammography and the associated radiologist characteristics. Radiologists varied substantially in the false-positive rates of screening mammography (ranging from 1.5 to 24.1%, adjusting for patient characteristics). A longer time period since graduation is associated with lower false-positive rates (odds ratio [OR] for every 10 years increase: 0.87, 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.81-0.94) and female radiologists had higher false-positive rates than male radiologists (OR = 1.25, 95% CI, 1.05-1.49), adjusting for patient and other radiologist characteristics. The unmeasured factors contributed to about 90% of the between-radiologist variance. Radiologists varied greatly in accuracy of mammography reading. Female and more recently trained radiologists had higher false-positive rates. The variation among radiologists was largely due to unmeasured factors, especially unmeasured radiologist factors. If our results are confirmed in further studies, they suggest that system-level interventions would be required to reduce variation in mammography interpretation.

Functioning in the Real World: Using Storytelling to Improve Validity in the Assessment of Executive Functions.

PubMed

Annotti, Lee A; Teglasi, Hedwig

2017-01-01

Real-world contexts differ in the clarity of expectations for desired responses, as do assessment procedures, ranging along a continuum from maximal conditions that provide well-defined expectations to typical conditions that provide ill-defined expectations. Executive functions guide effective social interactions, but relations between them have not been studied with measures that are matched in the clarity of response expectations. In predicting teacher-rated social competence (SC) from kindergarteners' performance on tasks of executive functions (EFs), we found better model-data fit indexes when both measures were similar in the clarity of response expectations for the child. The maximal EF measure, the Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment, presents well-defined response expectations, and the typical EF measure, 5 scales from the Thematic Apperception Test (TAT), presents ill-defined response expectations (i.e., Abstraction, Perceptual Integration, Cognitive-Experiential Integration, and Associative Thinking). To assess SC under maximal and typical conditions, we used 2 teacher-rated questionnaires, with items, respectively, that emphasize well-defined and ill-defined expectations: the Behavior Rating Inventory: Behavioral Regulation Index and the Social Skills Improvement System: Social Competence Scale. Findings suggest that matching clarity of expectations improves generalization across measures and highlight the usefulness of the TAT to measure EF.

A new pooling strategy for high-throughput screening: the Shifted Transversal Design

PubMed Central

Thierry-Mieg, Nicolas

2006-01-01

Background In binary high-throughput screening projects where the goal is the identification of low-frequency events, beyond the obvious issue of efficiency, false positives and false negatives are a major concern. Pooling constitutes a natural solution: it reduces the number of tests, while providing critical duplication of the individual experiments, thereby correcting for experimental noise. The main difficulty consists in designing the pools in a manner that is both efficient and robust: few pools should be necessary to correct the errors and identify the positives, yet the experiment should not be too vulnerable to biological shakiness. For example, some information should still be obtained even if there are slightly more positives or errors than expected. This is known as the group testing problem, or pooling problem. Results In this paper, we present a new non-adaptive combinatorial pooling design: the "shifted transversal design" (STD). It relies on arithmetics, and rests on two intuitive ideas: minimizing the co-occurrence of objects, and constructing pools of constant-sized intersections. We prove that it allows unambiguous decoding of noisy experimental observations. This design is highly flexible, and can be tailored to function robustly in a wide range of experimental settings (i.e., numbers of objects, fractions of positives, and expected error-rates). Furthermore, we show that our design compares favorably, in terms of efficiency, to the previously described non-adaptive combinatorial pooling designs. Conclusion This method is currently being validated by field-testing in the context of yeast-two-hybrid interactome mapping, in collaboration with Marc Vidal's lab at the Dana Farber Cancer Institute. Many similar projects could benefit from using the Shifted Transversal Design. PMID:16423300

Using a Regression Method for Estimating Performance in a Rapid Serial Visual Presentation Target-Detection Task

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

values designating each stimulus as a target ( true ) or nontarget (false). Both stim_time and stim_label should have length equal to the number of...position unless so designated by other authorized documents. Citation of manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an official endorsement or...depend strongly on the true values of hit rate and false-alarm rate. Based on its better estimation of hit rate and false-alarm rate, the regression

Long and happy living: Trends and patterns of happy life expectancy in the U.S., 1970–2000

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang

2013-01-01

This study assesses the trends and differentials in length of quality life in the U.S. population as measured by happy life expectancy in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000. The analysis combines age-specific prevalence rates of subjective well-being from a large nationally representative survey and life table estimates of mortality in decennial Census years. Employing the period prevalence-rate life table method—Sullivan method, the analysis finds evidence for improvement in quality of life in the U.S. Happy life expectancy largely increased in both absolute terms (number of years) and relative terms (proportion of life) over time at all adult ages examined. And increases in total life expectancy were mainly contributed by increases in expectancy in happy years rather than unhappy years. Happy life expectancy is longer than active life expectancy. And there has been greater compression of unhappiness than compression of morbidity. There are substantial differentials in happy life expectancy by sex and race because of differential prevalence rates of happiness. Women and whites had longer years of total and happy life expectancies at most ages and dates, while men and blacks had greater proportions of happy life expectancies across the three decades. Although race differentials generally decreased at older ages and with time, relative disadvantages of blacks persisted. PMID:19227700

Spot on for liars! How public scrutiny influences ethical behavior

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

We examine whether people are more honest in public than in private. In a laboratory experiment, we have subjects roll dice and report outcomes either in public or in private. Higher reports yield more money and lies cannot be detected. We also elicit subjects’ ethical mindsets and their expectations about others’ reports. We find that outcome-minded subjects lie less in public to conform with their expectations about others’ reports. Ironically, these expectations are false. Rule-minded subjects, in turn, do not respond to public scrutiny. These findings challenge the common faith in public scrutiny to promote ethical behavior. While public scrutiny eventually increases honesty, this effect is contingent on people’s mindsets and expectations. PMID:28715476

Spot on for liars! How public scrutiny influences ethical behavior.

PubMed

Ostermaier, Andreas; Uhl, Matthias

2017-01-01

We examine whether people are more honest in public than in private. In a laboratory experiment, we have subjects roll dice and report outcomes either in public or in private. Higher reports yield more money and lies cannot be detected. We also elicit subjects' ethical mindsets and their expectations about others' reports. We find that outcome-minded subjects lie less in public to conform with their expectations about others' reports. Ironically, these expectations are false. Rule-minded subjects, in turn, do not respond to public scrutiny. These findings challenge the common faith in public scrutiny to promote ethical behavior. While public scrutiny eventually increases honesty, this effect is contingent on people's mindsets and expectations.

False-Belief Understanding in 2.5-Year-Olds: Evidence From Violation-of-Expectation Change-of-Location and Unexpected-Contents tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

He, Zijing; Bolz, Matthias; Baillargeon, Renee

2011-01-01

Until recently, it was generally assumed that the ability to attribute false beliefs did not emerge until about 4 years of age. However, recent reports using spontaneous- as opposed to elicited-response tasks have suggested that this ability may be present much earlier. To date, researchers have employed two kinds of spontaneous-response…

Application of hidden Markov models to biological data mining: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Michael M.; Wang, Jason T.

2000-04-01

In this paper we present an example of biological data mining: the detection of splicing junction acceptors in eukaryotic genes. Identification or prediction of transcribed sequences from within genomic DNA has been a major rate-limiting step in the pursuit of genes. Programs currently available are far from being powerful enough to elucidate the gene structure completely. Here we develop a hidden Markov model (HMM) to represent the degeneracy features of splicing junction acceptor sites in eukaryotic genes. The HMM system is fully trained using an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and the system performance is evaluated using the 10-way cross- validation method. Experimental results show that our HMM system can correctly classify more than 94% of the candidate sequences (including true and false acceptor sites) into right categories. About 90% of the true acceptor sites and 96% of the false acceptor sites in the test data are classified correctly. These results are very promising considering that only the local information in DNA is used. The proposed model will be a very important component of an effective and accurate gene structure detection system currently being developed in our lab.

[Ethical aspects of disclosing information on prenatal screening for Down's syndrome].

PubMed

Tóth, Adél; Szabó, János

2005-02-06

Giving detailed information on prenatal screening for Down's syndrome is considered as paramount since this medical procedure intends to enhance the patient's self-governance in reproductive issues. Not only the respect for autonomy, but also the increased maternal anxiety and the reproductive decisions following the positive test result demand from the genetic professional to offer the test through genetic counselling. The counsellor's awareness about the expectations of pregnant women and the clarification of her own attitude concerning the screening can contribute to the effectiveness of counselling. The content of information embraces the technical aspects of screening and its consequences, like the description of Down's syndrome, the method of screening, the way of risk assessment, the detection rate, the false positive and false negative test results, the diagnostic procedures, and the termination of pregnancy. Written information leaflets should be completed by personal communication as the combination of these two forms has proved to be the most useful. The process of consultation is influenced by the communication skill of the genetic professional and the information seeking activity of the patient, so doctors should be trained to communicate better and patients should be encouraged to get more information about the screening.

A statistical investigation into the stability of iris recognition in diverse population sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, John J.; Etter, Delores M.

2014-05-01

Iris recognition is increasingly being deployed on population wide scales for important applications such as border security, social service administration, criminal identification and general population management. The error rates for this incredibly accurate form of biometric identification are established using well known, laboratory quality datasets. However, it is has long been acknowledged in biometric theory that not all individuals have the same likelihood of being correctly serviced by a biometric system. Typically, techniques for identifying clients that are likely to experience a false non-match or a false match error are carried out on a per-subject basis. This research makes the novel hypothesis that certain ethnical denominations are more or less likely to experience a biometric error. Through established statistical techniques, we demonstrate this hypothesis to be true and document the notable effect that the ethnicity of the client has on iris similarity scores. Understanding the expected impact of ethnical diversity on iris recognition accuracy is crucial to the future success of this technology as it is deployed in areas where the target population consists of clientele from a range of geographic backgrounds, such as border crossings and immigration check points.

Out of place, out of mind: Schema-driven false memory effects for object-location bindings.

PubMed

Lew, Adina R; Howe, Mark L

2017-03-01

Events consist of diverse elements, each processed in specialized neocortical networks, with temporal lobe memory systems binding these elements to form coherent event memories. We provide a novel theoretical analysis of an unexplored consequence of the independence of memory systems for elements and their bindings, 1 that raises the paradoxical prediction that schema-driven false memories can act solely on the binding of event elements despite the superior retrieval of individual elements. This is because if 2, or more, schema-relevant elements are bound together in unexpected conjunctions, the unexpected conjunction will increase attention during encoding to both the elements and their bindings, but only the bindings will receive competition with evoked schema-expected bindings. We test our model by examining memory for object-location bindings in recognition (Study 1) and recall (Studies 2 and 3) tasks. After studying schema-relevant objects in unexpected locations (e.g., pan on a stool in a kitchen scene), participants who then viewed these objects in expected locations (e.g., pan on stove) at test were more likely to falsely remember this object-location pairing as correct, compared with participants that viewed a different unexpected object-location pairing (e.g., pan on floor). In recall, participants were more likely to correctly remember individual schema-relevant objects originally viewed in unexpected, as opposed to expected locations, but were then more likely to misplace these items in the original room scene to expected places, relative to control schema-irrelevant objects. Our theoretical analysis and novel paradigm provide a tool for investigating memory distortions acting on binding processes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

PubMed

Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

2004-01-01

In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

The Role of Treatment Expectancy in Youth Receiving Exposure-based CBT for Obsessive Compulsive Disorder

PubMed Central

Lewin, Adam B.; Peris, Tara S.; Bergman, R. Lindsey; McCracken, James T.; Piacentini, John

2011-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to examine correlates of parent, child, and therapist treatment expectations and their role in the exposure-based treatment of childhood obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). Treatment expectations were assessed among 49 youth with primary OCD, their parents, and therapists as part of the baseline evaluation and post-treatment clinical outcomes were determined by blind evaluators. Baseline depressive symptoms, child/parent-rated functional impairment, externalizing behavior problems, number of comorbid psychiatric disorders, and a lower perception of control were associated with lower pre-treatment expectations. Parent expectation was associated with parental OCD symptoms, child depressive symptoms and child-reported impairment. Therapist expectations inversely correlated with child depressive symptoms, externalizing problems, and child-rated impairment. Pre-treatment OCD severity and prior treatment history were not linked to expectancy. Finally, higher treatment expectations were linked to better treatment response, lower attrition, better homework compliance, and reduced impairment. PMID:21723534

A statistical model of false negative and false positive detection of phase singularities.

PubMed

Jacquemet, Vincent

2017-10-01

The complexity of cardiac fibrillation dynamics can be assessed by analyzing the distribution of phase singularities (PSs) observed using mapping systems. Interelectrode distance, however, limits the accuracy of PS detection. To investigate in a theoretical framework the PS false negative and false positive rates in relation to the characteristics of the mapping system and fibrillation dynamics, we propose a statistical model of phase maps with controllable number and locations of PSs. In this model, phase maps are generated from randomly distributed PSs with physiologically-plausible directions of rotation. Noise and distortion of the phase are added. PSs are detected using topological charge contour integrals on regular grids of varying resolutions. Over 100 × 10 6 realizations of the random field process are used to estimate average false negative and false positive rates using a Monte-Carlo approach. The false detection rates are shown to depend on the average distance between neighboring PSs expressed in units of interelectrode distance, following approximately a power law with exponents in the range of 1.14 to 2 for false negatives and around 2.8 for false positives. In the presence of noise or distortion of phase, false detection rates at high resolution tend to a non-zero noise-dependent lower bound. This model provides an easy-to-implement tool for benchmarking PS detection algorithms over a broad range of configurations with multiple PSs.

False Memory in Aging Resulting From Self-Referential Processing

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objectives. Referencing the self is known to enhance accurate memory, but less is known about how the strategy affects false memory, particularly for highly self-relevant information. Because older adults are more prone to false memories, we tested whether self-referencing increased false memories with age. Method. In 2 studies, older and younger adults rated adjectives for self-descriptiveness and later completed a surprise recognition test comprised of words rated previously for self-descriptiveness and novel lure words. Lure words were subsequently rated for self-descriptiveness in order to assess the impact of self-relevance on false memory. Study 2 introduced commonness judgments as a control condition, such that participants completed a recognition test on adjectives rated for commonness in addition to adjectives in the self-descriptiveness condition. Results. Across both studies, findings indicate an increased response bias to self-referencing that increased hit rates for both older and younger adults but also increased false alarms as information became more self-descriptive, particularly for older adults. Discussion. Although the present study supports previous literature showing a boost in memory for self-referenced information, the increase in false alarms, especially in older adults, highlights the potential for memory errors, particularly for information that is strongly related to the self. PMID:23576449

[The effect of suggestibility on eyewitness identifications: A comparison between showups and lineups].

PubMed

Miura, Hiroshi; Itoh, Yuji

2016-04-01

There are two types of eyewitness-identification procedures: showups and lineups. Although the false-identification rate of showups was considered to be higher than that of lineups, experimental research has not always supported the superiority of lineups. Further, suggestibility of showups is believed to produce higher false-identification rates, but no experimental study has manipulated suggestibility. In this study, we manipulated suggestibility; 258 participants performed photo identification in a showup or lineup. The results revealed that the correct-identification rate was higher in the showups than the lineups, and the rate of dangerous false identification for the innocent suspect did not differ between showups and lineups. In lineups alone, the false-identification rate of the high-suggestibility.condition was marginally higher than that of the low-suggestibility condition. The results indicate that suggestibility, which results from the preconception that the perpetrator must exist in the photos, increases false identifications in relative judgments, such as in lineups.

Shear-wave elastography in the diagnosis of solid breast masses: what leads to false-negative or false-positive results?

PubMed

Yoon, Jung Hyun; Jung, Hae Kyoung; Lee, Jong Tae; Ko, Kyung Hee

2013-09-01

To investigate the factors that have an effect on false-positive or false-negative shear-wave elastography (SWE) results in solid breast masses. From June to December 2012, 222 breast lesions of 199 consecutive women (mean age: 45.3 ± 10.1 years; range, 21 to 88 years) who had been scheduled for biopsy or surgical excision were included. Greyscale ultrasound and SWE were performed in all women before biopsy. Final ultrasound assessments and SWE parameters (pattern classification and maximum elasticity) were recorded and compared with histopathology results. Patient and lesion factors in the 'true' and 'false' groups were compared. Of the 222 masses, 175 (78.8 %) were benign, and 47 (21.2 %) were malignant. False-positive rates of benign masses were significantly higher than false-negative rates of malignancy in SWE patterns, 36.6 % to 6.4 % (P < 0.001). Among both benign and malignant masses, factors showing significance among false SWE features were lesion size, breast thickness and lesion depth (all P < 0.05). All 47 malignant breast masses had SWE images of good quality. False SWE features were more significantly seen in benign masses. Lesion size, breast thickness and lesion depth have significance in producing false results, and this needs consideration in SWE image acquisition. • Shear-wave elastography (SWE) is widely used during breast imaging • At SWE, false-positive rates were significantly higher than false-negative rates • Larger size, breast thickness, depth and fair quality influences false-positive SWE features • Smaller size, larger breast thickness and depth influences false-negative SWE features.

Identification of differentially expressed genes and false discovery rate in microarray studies.

PubMed

Gusnanto, Arief; Calza, Stefano; Pawitan, Yudi

2007-04-01

To highlight the development in microarray data analysis for the identification of differentially expressed genes, particularly via control of false discovery rate. The emergence of high-throughput technology such as microarrays raises two fundamental statistical issues: multiplicity and sensitivity. We focus on the biological problem of identifying differentially expressed genes. First, multiplicity arises due to testing tens of thousands of hypotheses, rendering the standard P value meaningless. Second, known optimal single-test procedures such as the t-test perform poorly in the context of highly multiple tests. The standard approach of dealing with multiplicity is too conservative in the microarray context. The false discovery rate concept is fast becoming the key statistical assessment tool replacing the P value. We review the false discovery rate approach and argue that it is more sensible for microarray data. We also discuss some methods to take into account additional information from the microarrays to improve the false discovery rate. There is growing consensus on how to analyse microarray data using the false discovery rate framework in place of the classical P value. Further research is needed on the preprocessing of the raw data, such as the normalization step and filtering, and on finding the most sensitive test procedure.

The local lymph node assay: current position in the regulatory classification of skin sensitizing chemicals.

PubMed

Basketter, David A; Gerberick, G Frank; Kimber, Ian

2007-01-01

The local lymph node assay (LLNA) is being used increasingly in the identification of skin sensitizing chemicals for regulatory purposes. In the context of new chemicals legislation (REACH) in Europe, it is the preferred assay. The rationale for this is that the LLNA quantitative and objective approach to skin sensitization testing allied with the important animal welfare benefits that the method offers. However, as with certain guinea pig sensitization tests before it, this increasing use also brings experience with an increasingly wide range of industrial and other chemicals where the outcome of the assay does not always necessarily meet with the expectations of those conducting it. Sometimes, the result appears to be a false negative, but rather more commonly, the complaint is that the chemical represents a false positive. Against this background we have here reviewed a number of instances where false positive and false negative results have been described and have sought to reconcile science with expectation. Based on these analyses, it is our conclusion that false positives and false negatives do occur in the LLNA, as they do with any other skin sensitization assay (and indeed with all tests used for hazard identification), and that this occurs for a number of reasons. We further conclude, however, that false positive results in the LLNA, as with the guinea pig maximization test, arise most commonly via failure to distinguish what is scientifically correct from that which is unpalatable. The consequences of this confusion are discussed in the article, particularly in relation to the need to integrate both potency measurement and risk assessments into classification and labelling schemes that aim to manage potential risks to human health.

Stochastic variation in avian survival rates: Life-history predictions, population consequences, and the potential responses to human perturbations and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Stochastic variation in survival rates is expected to decrease long-term population growth rates. This expectation influences both life-history theory and the conservation of species. From this expectation, Pfister (1998) developed the important life-history prediction that natural selection will have minimized variability in those elements of the annual life cycle (such as adult survival rate) with high sensitivity. This prediction has not been rigorously evaluated for bird populations, in part due to statistical difficulties related to variance estimation. I here overcome these difficulties, and in an analysis of 62 populations, I confirm her prediction by showing a negative relationship between the proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of adult survival and the proportional variance (CV) of adult survival. However, several species deviated significantly from this expectation, with more process variance in survival than predicted. For instance, projecting the magnitude of process variance in annual survival for American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) for 25 years resulted in a 44% decline in abundance without assuming any change in mean survival rate. For most of these species with high process variance, recent changes in harvest, habitats, or changes in climate patterns are the likely sources of environmental variability causing this variability in survival. Because of climate change, environmental variability is increasing on regional and global scales, which is expected to increase stochasticity in vital rates of species. Increased stochasticity in survival will depress population growth rates, and this result will magnify the conservation challenges we face.

Neurological prognostication of outcome in patients in coma after cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Rossetti, Andrea O; Rabinstein, Alejandro A; Oddo, Mauro

2016-05-01

Management of coma after cardiac arrest has improved during the past decade, allowing an increasing proportion of patients to survive, thus prognostication has become an integral part of post-resuscitation care. Neurologists are increasingly confronted with raised expectations of next of kin and the necessity to provide early predictions of long-term prognosis. During the past decade, as technology and clinical evidence have evolved, post-cardiac arrest prognostication has moved towards a multimodal paradigm combining clinical examination with additional methods, consisting of electrophysiology, blood biomarkers, and brain imaging, to optimise prognostic accuracy. Prognostication should never be based on a single indicator; although some variables have very low false positive rates for poor outcome, multimodal assessment provides resassurance about the reliability of a prognostic estimate by offering concordant evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Worth of Geophysical Data in Natural-Disaster-Insurance Rate Setting.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attanasi, E. D.; Karlinger, M. R.

1982-04-01

Insurance firms that offer natural-disaster insurance base their rates on available information. The benefits from collecting additional data and incorporating this information to improve parameter estimates of probability distributions that are used to characterize natural-disaster events can be determined by computing changes in premiums as a function of additional data. Specifically, the worth of data can be measured by changes in consumer's surplus (the widely applied measure of benefits to consumers used in benefit-cost analysis) brought about when the premiums are adjusted. In this paper, a formal model of the process for setting insurance rates is hypothesized in which the insurance firm sets rates so as to trade off penalties of overestimation and underestimation of expected damages estimated from currently available hydrologic data. A Bayesian preposterior analysis is performed which permits the determination of the expected benefits of collecting additional geophysical data by examining the changes in expected premium rates as a function of the longer record before the data are actually collected. An estimate of the expected benefits associated with collecting more data for the representative consumer is computed using an assumed demand function for insurance. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of expected benefits to changes in insurance demand and firm rate-setting procedures is carried out. From these results, conclusions are drawn regarding aggregate benefits to all flood insurance purchasers.

Cerebral palsy litigation: change course or abandon ship.

PubMed

Sartwelle, Thomas P; Johnston, James C

2015-06-01

The cardinal driver of cerebral palsy litigation is electronic fetal monitoring, which has continued unabated for 40 years. Electronic fetal monitoring, however, is based on 19th-century childbirth myths, a virtually nonexistent scientific foundation, and has a false positive rate exceeding 99%. It has not affected the incidence of cerebral palsy. Electronic fetal monitoring has, however, increased the cesarian section rate, with the expected increase in mortality and morbidity risks to mothers and babies alike. This article explains why electronic fetal monitoring remains endorsed as efficacious in the worlds' labor rooms and courtrooms despite being such a feeble medical modality. It also reviews the reasons professional organizations have failed to condemn the use of electronic fetal monitoring in courtrooms. The failures of tort reform, special cerebral palsy courts, and damage limits to stem the escalating litigation are discussed. Finally, the authors propose using a currently available evidence rule-the Daubert doctrine that excludes "junk science" from the courtroom-as the beginning of the end to cerebral palsy litigation and electronic fetal monitoring's 40-year masquerade as science. © The Author(s) 2014.

Cerebral Palsy Litigation

PubMed Central

Sartwelle, Thomas P.

2015-01-01

The cardinal driver of cerebral palsy litigation is electronic fetal monitoring, which has continued unabated for 40 years. Electronic fetal monitoring, however, is based on 19th-century childbirth myths, a virtually nonexistent scientific foundation, and has a false positive rate exceeding 99%. It has not affected the incidence of cerebral palsy. Electronic fetal monitoring has, however, increased the cesarian section rate, with the expected increase in mortality and morbidity risks to mothers and babies alike. This article explains why electronic fetal monitoring remains endorsed as efficacious in the worlds’ labor rooms and courtrooms despite being such a feeble medical modality. It also reviews the reasons professional organizations have failed to condemn the use of electronic fetal monitoring in courtrooms. The failures of tort reform, special cerebral palsy courts, and damage limits to stem the escalating litigation are discussed. Finally, the authors propose using a currently available evidence rule—the Daubert doctrine that excludes “junk science” from the courtroom—as the beginning of the end to cerebral palsy litigation and electronic fetal monitoring’s 40-year masquerade as science. PMID:25183322

Quantized expected returns in terms of dividend yield at the money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Lamine

2011-03-01

We use the Bachelier (additive model) and the Black-Scholes (multiplicative model) as our models for the stock price movement for an investor who has entered into an America call option contract. We assume the investor to pay certain dividend yield on the expected rate of returns from buying stocks. In this work, we also assume the stock price to be initially in the out of the money state and eventually will move up through at the money state to the deep in the money state where the expected future payoffs and returns are positive for the stock holder. We call a singularity point at the money because the expected payoff vanishes at this point. Then, using martingale, supermartingale and Markov theories we obtain the Bachelier-type of the Black-Scholes and the Black-Scholes equations which we hedge in the limit where the change of the expected payoff of the call option is extremely small. Hence, by comparison we obtain the time-independent Schroedinger equation in Quantum Mechanics. We solve completely the time independent Schroedinger equation for both models to obtain the expected rate of returns and the expected payoffs for the stock holder at the money. We find the expected rate of returns to be quantized in terms of the dividend yield.

Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention

PubMed Central

Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

2013-01-01

Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue–stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s−1) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations. PMID:24018716

False-negative rate of gram-stain microscopy for diagnosis of septic arthritis: suggestions for improvement.

PubMed

Stirling, Paul; Faroug, Radwane; Amanat, Suheil; Ahmed, Abdulkhaled; Armstrong, Malcolm; Sharma, Pankaj; Qamruddin, Ahmed

2014-01-01

We quantify the false-negative diagnostic rate of septic arthritis using Gram-stain microscopy of synovial fluid and compare this to values reported in the peer-reviewed literature. We propose a method of improving the diagnostic value of Gram-stain microscopy using Lithium Heparin containers that prevent synovial fluid coagulation. Retrospective study of the Manchester Royal Infirmary microbiology database of patients undergoing synovial fluid Gram-stain and culture between December 2003 and March 2012 was undertaken. The initial cohort of 1896 synovial fluid analyses for suspected septic arthritis was reduced to 143 after exclusion criteria were applied. Analysis of our Gram-stain microscopy yielded 111 false-negative results from a cohort size of 143 positive synovial fluid cultures, giving a false-negative rate of 78%. We report a false-negative rate of Gram-stain microscopy for septic arthritis of 78%. Clinicians should therefore avoid the investigation until a statistically significant data set confirms its efficacy. The investigation's value could be improved by using Lithium Heparin containers to collect homogenous synovial fluid samples. Ongoing research aims to establish how much this could reduce the false-negative rate.

Interest contagion in violation-of-expectation-based false-belief tasks.

PubMed

Falck, Andreas; Brinck, Ingar; Lindgren, Magnus

2014-01-01

In the debate about how to interpret Violation-of-Expectation (VoE) based false-belief experiments, it has been suggested that infants are predicting the actions of the agent based on more or less sophisticated cognitive means. We present an alternative, more parsimonious interpretation, exploring the possibility that the infants' reactions are not governed by rational expectation but rather of memory strength due to differences in the allocation of cognitive resources earlier in the experiment. Specifically, it is argued that (1) infants' have a tendency to find more interest in events that observed agents are attending to as opposed to unattended events ("interest contagion"), (2) the object-location configurations that result from such interesting events are remembered more strongly by the infants, and (3) the VoE contrast arises as a consequence of the difference in memory strength between more and less interesting object-location configurations. We discuss two published experiments, one which we argue that our model can explain (Kovács etal., 2010), and one which we argue cannot be readily explained by our model (Onishi and Baillargeon, 2005).

Multi-level scanning method for defect inspection

DOEpatents

Bokor, Jeffrey; Jeong, Seongtae

2002-01-01

A method for performing scanned defect inspection of a collection of contiguous areas using a specified false-alarm-rate and capture-rate within an inspection system that has characteristic seek times between inspection locations. The multi-stage method involves setting an increased false-alarm-rate for a first stage of scanning, wherein subsequent stages of scanning inspect only the detected areas of probable defects at lowered values for the false-alarm-rate. For scanning inspection operations wherein the seek time and area uncertainty is favorable, the method can substantially increase inspection throughput.

Effectiveness of a Marijuana Expectancy Manipulation: Piloting the Balanced-Placebo Design for Marijuana

PubMed Central

Metrik, Jane; Rohsenow, Damaris J.; Monti, Peter M.; McGeary, John; Cook, Travis A. R.; de Wit, Harriet; Haney, Margaret; Kahler, Christopher W.

2009-01-01

Although alcohol and nicotine administration studies have demonstrated that manipulating subjects’ expectancies regarding drug content affects drug response, research with marijuana has not adequately studied drug expectancy effects. The present pilot study was the first to evaluate the credibility and effect of expectancy manipulation on subjective measures and smoking patterns using a marijuana administration balanced-placebo design (BPD). In a 2 × 2 instructional set (told delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol [THC] vs. told no THC) by drug (smoked marijuana with 2.8% THC vs. placebo) between-subjects design, the authors examined the effect of marijuana expectancy manipulation and the pharmacologic effect on affective and physiologic measures, cigarette ratings, and smoking behavior with 20 marijuana smokers (mean age = 20 years; 25% female). Large main effects of expectancy were found on ratings of cigarette potency, strength, taste, smell, and satisfaction, and observed smoking behavior. Pharmacologic effects were particularly evident for self-reported physical reactions to marijuana and cigarette potency and satisfaction ratings. This study demonstrated the feasibility of the BPD research with marijuana and yielded promising results for future studies examining the independent and combined effects of marijuana pharmacology and expectancies. PMID:19653787

Intrapartum intervention rates and perinatal outcomes following induction of labour compared to expectant management at term from an Australian perinatal centre.

PubMed

Zhao, Yi; Flatley, Christopher; Kumar, Sailesh

2017-02-01

Induction of labor (IOL) is a common obstetric intervention, yet its impact on intervention rates and perinatal outcomes is conflicting. To evaluate the impact of IOL on intrapartum intervention rates and perinatal outcomes in women with singleton pregnancies at term. This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study of term singleton deliveries at the Mater Mother's Hospital in Brisbane, Australia in 2007-2013. The IOL cohort was compared to an expectantly managed group. Of the final cohort (44 698 women), 64.4% had expectant management and 35.6% had IOL. Multivariate analyses showed that IOL was associated with lower odds of spontaneous vaginal delivery from ≥37 weeks gestation. The risk of emergency caesarean for non-reassuring fetal status was also higher in the IOL cohort at 40 and 41 weeks gestation. For women who were managed expectantly, the highest rate of spontaneous vaginal delivery and the lowest rate of emergency caesareans occurred at 39 weeks gestation. For women who underwent IOL, the nadir emergency caesarean rate and the highest spontaneous vaginal delivery rate was also at 39 weeks. Rates of neonatal intensive car unit admission were higher in the IOL group at 37 weeks (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.11, 95% CI: 2.62-3.68) and 38 weeks (aOR 1.78, 95% CI: 1.55-2.04) and lower at >42 weeks (OR 0.35, 95% CI: 0.14-0.81) respectively. IOL compared to expectant management is associated with lower spontaneous vaginal delivery rates and increased risk of emergency caesarean for intrapartum fetal compromise with broadly comparable perinatal outcomes. © 2017 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

The semantics of emotion in false memory.

PubMed

Brainerd, C J; Bookbinder, S H

2018-03-26

The emotional valence of target information has been a centerpiece of recent false memory research, but in most experiments, it has been confounded with emotional arousal. We sought to clarify the results of such research by identifying a shared mathematical relation between valence and arousal ratings in commonly administered normed materials. That relation was then used to (a) decide whether arousal as well as valence influences false memory when they are confounded and to (b) determine whether semantic properties that are known to affect false memory covary with valence and arousal ratings. In Study 1, we identified a quadratic relation between valence and arousal ratings of words and pictures that has 2 key properties: Arousal increases more rapidly as function of negative valence than positive valence, and hence, a given level of negative valence is more arousing than the same level of positive valence. This quadratic function predicts that if arousal as well as valence affects false memory when they are confounded, false memory data must have certain fine-grained properties. In Study 2, those properties were absent from norming data for the Cornell-Cortland Emotional Word Lists, indicating that valence but not arousal affects false memory in those norms. In Study 3, we tested fuzzy-trace theory's explanation of that pattern: that valence ratings are positively related to semantic properties that are known to increase false memory, but arousal ratings are not. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Intersubject Differences in False Nonmatch Rates for a Fingerprint-Based Authentication System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breebaart, Jeroen; Akkermans, Ton; Kelkboom, Emile

2009-12-01

The intersubject dependencies of false nonmatch rates were investigated for a minutiae-based biometric authentication process using single enrollment and verification measurements. A large number of genuine comparison scores were subjected to statistical inference tests that indicated that the number of false nonmatches depends on the subject and finger under test. This result was also observed if subjects associated with failures to enroll were excluded from the test set. The majority of the population (about 90%) showed a false nonmatch rate that was considerably smaller than the average false nonmatch rate of the complete population. The remaining 10% could be characterized as "goats due to their relatively high probability for a false nonmatch. The image quality reported by the template extraction module only weakly correlated with the genuine comparison scores. When multiple verification attempts were investigated, only a limited benefit was observed for "goats, since the conditional probability for a false nonmatch given earlier nonsuccessful attempts increased with the number of attempts. These observations suggest that (1) there is a need for improved identification of "goats during enrollment (e.g., using dedicated signal-driven analysis and classification methods and/or the use of multiple enrollment images) and (2) there should be alternative means for identity verification in the biometric system under test in case of two subsequent false nonmatches.

Assertiveness expectancies: how hard people push depends on the consequences they predict.

PubMed

Ames, Daniel R

2008-12-01

The present article seeks to explain varying levels of assertiveness in interpersonal conflict and negotiations with assertiveness expectancies, idiosyncratic predictions people make about the social and instrumental consequences of assertive behavior. This account complements motivation-based models of assertiveness and competitiveness, suggesting that individuals may possess the same social values (e.g., concern for relationships) but show dramatically different assertiveness due to different assumptions about behavioral consequences. Results clarify the form of assertiveness expectancies, namely that most people assume increasing assertiveness can yield positive social and instrumental benefits up to a point, beyond which benefits decline. However, people vary in how assertive this perceived optimal point is. These individual differences in expectancies are linked in 4 studies to assertiveness, including self-reported assertiveness, rated behavioral preferences in assorted interpersonal conflict scenarios, partner ratings of participants' behavior in a face-to-face dyadic negotiation, and work colleague ratings of participants' assertiveness in the workplace. In each case, the link between expectancies and behavior remained after controlling for values. The results suggest a place for expectancies alongside values in psychological models of interpersonal assertiveness.

Optimizing the compatibility between rating scales and measures of productive second language competence.

PubMed

Weaver, Christopher

2011-01-01

This study presents a systematic investigation concerning the performance of different rating scales used in the English section of a university entrance examination to assess 1,287 Japanese test takers' ability to write a third-person introduction speech. Although the rating scales did not conform to all of the expectations of the Rasch model, they successfully defined a meaningful continuum of English communicative competence. In some cases, the expectations of the Rasch model needed to be weighed against the specific assessment needs of the university entrance examination. This investigation also found that the degree of compatibility between the number of points allotted to the different rating scales and the various requirements of an introduction speech played a considerable role in determining the extent to which the different rating scales conformed to the expectations of the Rasch model. Compatibility thus becomes an important factor to consider for optimal rating scale performance.

Fixed-rate layered multicast congestion control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bing, Zhang; Bing, Yuan; Zengji, Liu

2006-10-01

A new fixed-rate layered multicast congestion control algorithm called FLMCC is proposed. The sender of a multicast session transmits data packets at a fixed rate on each layer, while receivers each obtain different throughput by cumulatively subscribing to deferent number of layers based on their expected rates. In order to provide TCP-friendliness and estimate the expected rate accurately, a window-based mechanism implemented at receivers is presented. To achieve this, each receiver maintains a congestion window, adjusts it based on the GAIMD algorithm, and from the congestion window an expected rate is calculated. To measure RTT, a new method is presented which combines an accurate measurement with a rough estimation. A feedback suppression based on a random timer mechanism is given to avoid feedback implosion in the accurate measurement. The protocol is simple in its implementation. Simulations indicate that FLMCC shows good TCP-friendliness, responsiveness as well as intra-protocol fairness, and provides high link utilization.

Impact of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tombolotutu, A. D.; Djirimu, M. A.; Lutfi, M.; Anggadini, F.

2018-05-01

Research was conducted in several districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province in order to determine the effect of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate, and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty at the districts/city in the province. The analysis used is Panel Data Regression. The results show that first, life expectancy and gross domestic regional income have a negative and significant impact on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province. Second, the opened unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the province. Third, literacy rates show a positive effect and insignificant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province of Central Sulawesi. Fourth, these four variables simultaneously affect the poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi

Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

PubMed

Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

2016-01-01

The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

Expectancy influences on attention to threat are only weak and transient: Behavioral and physiological evidence.

PubMed

Aue, Tatjana; Chauvigné, Léa A S; Bristle, Mirko; Okon-Singer, Hadas; Guex, Raphaël

2016-12-01

Can prior expectancies shape attention to threat? To answer this question, we manipulated the expectancies of spider phobics and nonfearful controls regarding the appearance of spider and bird targets in a visual search task. We observed robust evidence for expectancy influences on attention to birds, reflected in error rates, reaction times, pupil diameter, and heart rate (HR). We found no solid effect, however, of the same expectancies on attention to spiders; only HR revealed a weak and transient impact of prior expectancies on the orientation of attention to threat. Moreover, these asymmetric effects for spiders versus birds were observed in both phobics and controls. Our results are thus consistent with the notion of a threat detection mechanism that is only partially permeable to current expectancies, thereby increasing chances of survival in situations that are mistakenly perceived as safe. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduced nicotine content cigarette advertising: How false beliefs and subjective ratings affect smoking behavior

PubMed Central

Mercincavage, Melissa; Saddleson, Megan L.; Gup, Emily; Halstead, Angela; Mays, Darren; Strasser, Andrew A.

2017-01-01

Introduction Tobacco advertising can create false beliefs about health harms that are reinforced by product design features. Reduced nicotine content (RNC) cigarettes may reduce harm, but research has not addressed advertising influences. This study examined RNC cigarette advertising effects on false harm beliefs, and how these beliefs – along with initial subjective ratings of RNC cigarettes – affect subsequent smoking behaviors. We further explored whether subjective ratings moderate associations between false beliefs and behavior. Methods Seventy-seven daily, non-treatment-seeking smokers (66.2% male) participated in the first 15 days of a randomized, controlled, open-label RNC cigarette trial. Participants viewed an RNC cigarette advertisement at baseline before completing a 5-day period of preferred brand cigarette use, followed by a 10-day period of RNC cigarette use (0.6 mg nicotine yield). Participants provided pre- and post-advertisement beliefs, and subjective ratings and smoking behaviors for cigarettes smoked during laboratory visits. Results Viewing the advertisement increased beliefs that RNC cigarettes contain less nicotine and are healthier than regular cigarettes (p’s < 0.001 and 0.011), and decreased the belief that they are less likely to cause cancer (p = 0.046). Neither false beliefs nor subjective ratings directly affected smoking behaviors. Significant interactions of strength and taste ratings with beliefs (p’s < 0.001), however, indicated that among smokers with less negative initial subjective ratings, greater false beliefs were associated with greater RNC cigarette consumption. Conclusions Smokers may misconstrue RNC cigarettes as less harmful than regular cigarettes. These beliefs, in conjunction with favorable subjective ratings, may increase product use. PMID:28214392

Reduced nicotine content cigarette advertising: How false beliefs and subjective ratings affect smoking behavior.

PubMed

Mercincavage, Melissa; Saddleson, Megan L; Gup, Emily; Halstead, Angela; Mays, Darren; Strasser, Andrew A

2017-04-01

Tobacco advertising can create false beliefs about health harms that are reinforced by product design features. Reduced nicotine content (RNC) cigarettes may reduce harm, but research has not addressed advertising influences. This study examined RNC cigarette advertising effects on false harm beliefs, and how these beliefs - along with initial subjective ratings of RNC cigarettes - affect subsequent smoking behaviors. We further explored whether subjective ratings moderate associations between false beliefs and behavior. Seventy-seven daily, non-treatment-seeking smokers (66.2% male) participated in the first 15days of a randomized, controlled, open-label RNC cigarette trial. Participants viewed an RNC cigarette advertisement at baseline before completing a 5-day period of preferred brand cigarette use, followed by a 10-day period of RNC cigarette use (0.6mg nicotine yield). Participants provided pre- and post-advertisement beliefs, and subjective ratings and smoking behaviors for cigarettes smoked during laboratory visits. Viewing the advertisement increased beliefs that RNC cigarettes contain less nicotine and are healthier than regular cigarettes (p's<0.001 and 0.011), and decreased the belief that they are less likely to cause cancer (p=0.046). Neither false beliefs nor subjective ratings directly affected smoking behaviors. Significant interactions of strength and taste ratings with beliefs (p's<0.001), however, indicated that among smokers with less negative initial subjective ratings, greater false beliefs were associated with greater RNC cigarette consumption. Smokers may misconstrue RNC cigarettes as less harmful than regular cigarettes. These beliefs, in conjunction with favorable subjective ratings, may increase product use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of sexual harassment by evidence quality, perceiver gender, feminism, and right wing authoritarianism: Debunking popular myths.

PubMed

Bhattacharya, Gargi; Stockdale, Margaret S

2016-10-01

This study examined the critique in public discourse that sexual harassment (SH) victim advocates, particularly women and feminists, ignore the quality of evidence in a SH claim and are reluctant to find evidence of a false accusation. To balance the inquiry, the study also examined whether right wing authoritarians (RWAs) also ignore evidence quality and presume such claims are false accusations. Participants were 961 U.S. adults (51% female) who completed an online experiment in which they read either a gender harassment (GH) or unwanted sexual attention (USA) scenario of hostile work environment SH and rated the scenario on severity, perceived guilt of the accused, belief that the accused should receive negative job consequences, and likelihood that the claimant was making a false accusation. Scenarios varied by the strength of the evidence in support of the SH claim. Participants completed measures of identification with and support for feminism, RWA, and demographic variables. Results found that contrary to expectations, evidence had a stronger effect on women's, feminists', and feminism supporters' perceptions and to a lesser extent RWAs' perceptions of the scenarios. When evidence was weak, women and feminists, compared to others, were less supportive of the prosecution, but when evidence was strong they were more supportive of the prosecution than were others. These findings address criticisms that advocates for gender equity and victim's rights, particularly women and feminists, are unable to reach fair judgments of SH complaints. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Detecting Earthquakes over a Seismic Network using Single-Station Similarity Measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergen, Karianne J.; Beroza, Gregory C.

2018-03-01

New blind waveform-similarity-based detection methods, such as Fingerprint and Similarity Thresholding (FAST), have shown promise for detecting weak signals in long-duration, continuous waveform data. While blind detectors are capable of identifying similar or repeating waveforms without templates, they can also be susceptible to false detections due to local correlated noise. In this work, we present a set of three new methods that allow us to extend single-station similarity-based detection over a seismic network; event-pair extraction, pairwise pseudo-association, and event resolution complete a post-processing pipeline that combines single-station similarity measures (e.g. FAST sparse similarity matrix) from each station in a network into a list of candidate events. The core technique, pairwise pseudo-association, leverages the pairwise structure of event detections in its network detection model, which allows it to identify events observed at multiple stations in the network without modeling the expected move-out. Though our approach is general, we apply it to extend FAST over a sparse seismic network. We demonstrate that our network-based extension of FAST is both sensitive and maintains a low false detection rate. As a test case, we apply our approach to two weeks of continuous waveform data from five stations during the foreshock sequence prior to the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake. Our method identifies nearly five times as many events as the local seismicity catalog (including 95% of the catalog events), and less than 1% of these candidate events are false detections.

[Breast cancer screening in Austria: Key figures, age limits, screening intervals and evidence].

PubMed

Jeitler, Klaus; Semlitsch, Thomas; Posch, Nicole; Siebenhofer, Andrea; Horvath, Karl

2015-01-01

In January 2014, the first nationwide quality-assured breast cancer screening program addressing women aged ≥ 40 years was introduced in Austria. As part of the process of developing a patient information leaflet, the Evidence Based Medicine (EBM) Review Center of the Medical University of Graz was charged with the task of assessing the potential benefits and harms of breast cancer screening from the available evidence. Based on these results, key figures were derived for mortality, false-positive and false-negative mammography results, and overdiagnosis, considering Austria-specific incidence rates for breast cancer and breast cancer mortality. Furthermore, the current evidence regarding age limits and screening interval, which were the subjects of controversial public discussions, was analyzed. A systematic search for primary and secondary literature was performed and additional evidence was screened, e. g., evaluation reports of European breast cancer screening programs. On the basis of the available evidence and of the Austrian breast cancer mortality and incidence rates, it can be assumed that - depending on the age group - 1 to 4 breast cancer deaths can be avoided per 1,000 women screened in a structured breast cancer screening program, while the overall mortality remains unchanged. On the other hand, 150 to 200 of these 1,000 women will be affected by false-positive results and 1 to 9 women by overdiagnosis due to the structured breast cancer screening. Therefore, the overall benefit-harm balance is uncertain. If women from 40 to 44 or above 70 years of age are considered, who can also participate in the Austrian screening program, even a negative benefit-harm balance seems possible. However, with the implementation of quality standards in breast cancer screening and the dissemination of a patient information leaflet, an improvement in the medical treatment situation, specifically in terms of informed decision-making, can be expected. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Masking as an effective quality control method for next-generation sequencing data analysis.

PubMed

Yun, Sajung; Yun, Sijung

2014-12-13

Next generation sequencing produces base calls with low quality scores that can affect the accuracy of identifying simple nucleotide variation calls, including single nucleotide polymorphisms and small insertions and deletions. Here we compare the effectiveness of two data preprocessing methods, masking and trimming, and the accuracy of simple nucleotide variation calls on whole-genome sequence data from Caenorhabditis elegans. Masking substitutes low quality base calls with 'N's (undetermined bases), whereas trimming removes low quality bases that results in a shorter read lengths. We demonstrate that masking is more effective than trimming in reducing the false-positive rate in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) calling. However, both of the preprocessing methods did not affect the false-negative rate in SNP calling with statistical significance compared to the data analysis without preprocessing. False-positive rate and false-negative rate for small insertions and deletions did not show differences between masking and trimming. We recommend masking over trimming as a more effective preprocessing method for next generation sequencing data analysis since masking reduces the false-positive rate in SNP calling without sacrificing the false-negative rate although trimming is more commonly used currently in the field. The perl script for masking is available at http://code.google.com/p/subn/. The sequencing data used in the study were deposited in the Sequence Read Archive (SRX450968 and SRX451773).

Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

PubMed

Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

2005-10-01

Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

77 FR 48045 - Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Disqualified Recipient Reporting and Computer Matching...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-13

... false positive match rate of 10 percent. Making the match mandatory for the States who did not perform... number of prisoners from 1995 to 2013 and assumed a 10 percent false positive match rate. Finally, we... matches are false positives. We estimate that mandatory matches at certification will identify an...

Serum Free Light Chain Assay and κ/λ Ratio: Performance in Patients With Monoclonal Gammopathy-High False Negative Rate for κ/λ Ratio

PubMed Central

Singh, Gurmukh

2017-01-01

Background Serum free light chain assay (SFLCA) and κ/λ ratio, and protein electrophoretic methods are used in the diagnosis and monitoring of monoclonal gammopathies. Methods Results for serum free light chains, serum and urine protein electrophoreses and immunofixation electrophoreses in 468 patients with a diagnosis of monoclonal gammopathy were compared. The results of the two methods were graded as concordant, non-concordant or discordant with the established diagnoses to assess the relative performance of the methods. Results of κ/λ ratio in samples with monoclonal protein detectable by electrophoretic methods were also analyzed. Results Protein electrophoreses results were concordant with the established diagnoses significantly more often than κ/λ ratio. The false negative rate for κ/λ ratio was higher than that for electrophoretic methods. κ/λ ratio was falsely negative in about 27% of the 1,860 samples with detectable monoclonal immunoglobulin. The false negative rate was higher in lesions with lambda chains (32%) than those with kappa chains (24%). The false negative rate for κ/λ ratio was over 55% in samples with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance. Even at first encounter, the false negative rates for κ/λ ratios for monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, smoldering myeloma and multiple myeloma were 66.98%, 23.08%, and 30.15%, respectively, with false negative rate for lambda chain lesions being higher. Conclusions Electrophoretic studies of serum and urine are superior to SFLCA and κ/λ ratio. Abnormal κ/λ ratio, per se, is not diagnostic of monoclonal gammopathy. A normal κ/λ ratio does not exclude monoclonal gammopathy. False negative rates for lesions with lambda chain are higher than those for lesions with kappa chains. Electrophoretic studies of urine are underutilized. Clinical usefulness and medical necessity of SFLCA and κ/λ ratio is of questionable value in routine clinical testing. PMID:27924175

Serum Free Light Chain Assay and κ/λ Ratio: Performance in Patients With Monoclonal Gammopathy-High False Negative Rate for κ/λ Ratio.

PubMed

Singh, Gurmukh

2017-01-01

Serum free light chain assay (SFLCA) and κ/λ ratio, and protein electrophoretic methods are used in the diagnosis and monitoring of monoclonal gammopathies. Results for serum free light chains, serum and urine protein electrophoreses and immunofixation electrophoreses in 468 patients with a diagnosis of monoclonal gammopathy were compared. The results of the two methods were graded as concordant, non-concordant or discordant with the established diagnoses to assess the relative performance of the methods. Results of κ/λ ratio in samples with monoclonal protein detectable by electrophoretic methods were also analyzed. Protein electrophoreses results were concordant with the established diagnoses significantly more often than κ/λ ratio. The false negative rate for κ/λ ratio was higher than that for electrophoretic methods. κ/λ ratio was falsely negative in about 27% of the 1,860 samples with detectable monoclonal immunoglobulin. The false negative rate was higher in lesions with lambda chains (32%) than those with kappa chains (24%). The false negative rate for κ/λ ratio was over 55% in samples with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance. Even at first encounter, the false negative rates for κ/λ ratios for monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, smoldering myeloma and multiple myeloma were 66.98%, 23.08%, and 30.15%, respectively, with false negative rate for lambda chain lesions being higher. Electrophoretic studies of serum and urine are superior to SFLCA and κ/λ ratio. Abnormal κ/λ ratio, per se , is not diagnostic of monoclonal gammopathy. A normal κ/λ ratio does not exclude monoclonal gammopathy. False negative rates for lesions with lambda chain are higher than those for lesions with kappa chains. Electrophoretic studies of urine are underutilized. Clinical usefulness and medical necessity of SFLCA and κ/λ ratio is of questionable value in routine clinical testing.

Position Matters: Network Centrality Considerably Impacts Rates of Protein Evolution in the Human Protein–Protein Interaction Network

PubMed Central

Feyertag, Felix; Chakraborty, Sandip

2017-01-01

Abstract The proteins of any organism evolve at disparate rates. A long list of factors affecting rates of protein evolution have been identified. However, the relative importance of each factor in determining rates of protein evolution remains unresolved. The prevailing view is that evolutionary rates are dominantly determined by gene expression, and that other factors such as network centrality have only a marginal effect, if any. However, this view is largely based on analyses in yeasts, and accurately measuring the importance of the determinants of rates of protein evolution is complicated by the fact that the different factors are often correlated with each other, and by the relatively poor quality of available functional genomics data sets. Here, we use correlation, partial correlation and principal component regression analyses to measure the contributions of several factors to the variability of the rates of evolution of human proteins. For this purpose, we analyzed the entire human protein–protein interaction data set and the human signal transduction network—a network data set of exceptionally high quality, obtained by manual curation, which is expected to be virtually free from false positives. In contrast with the prevailing view, we observe that network centrality (measured as the number of physical and nonphysical interactions, betweenness, and closeness) has a considerable impact on rates of protein evolution. Surprisingly, the impact of centrality on rates of protein evolution seems to be comparable, or even superior according to some analyses, to that of gene expression. Our observations seem to be independent of potentially confounding factors and from the limitations (biases and errors) of interactomic data sets. PMID:28854629

Position Matters: Network Centrality Considerably Impacts Rates of Protein Evolution in the Human Protein-Protein Interaction Network.

PubMed

Alvarez-Ponce, David; Feyertag, Felix; Chakraborty, Sandip

2017-06-01

The proteins of any organism evolve at disparate rates. A long list of factors affecting rates of protein evolution have been identified. However, the relative importance of each factor in determining rates of protein evolution remains unresolved. The prevailing view is that evolutionary rates are dominantly determined by gene expression, and that other factors such as network centrality have only a marginal effect, if any. However, this view is largely based on analyses in yeasts, and accurately measuring the importance of the determinants of rates of protein evolution is complicated by the fact that the different factors are often correlated with each other, and by the relatively poor quality of available functional genomics data sets. Here, we use correlation, partial correlation and principal component regression analyses to measure the contributions of several factors to the variability of the rates of evolution of human proteins. For this purpose, we analyzed the entire human protein-protein interaction data set and the human signal transduction network-a network data set of exceptionally high quality, obtained by manual curation, which is expected to be virtually free from false positives. In contrast with the prevailing view, we observe that network centrality (measured as the number of physical and nonphysical interactions, betweenness, and closeness) has a considerable impact on rates of protein evolution. Surprisingly, the impact of centrality on rates of protein evolution seems to be comparable, or even superior according to some analyses, to that of gene expression. Our observations seem to be independent of potentially confounding factors and from the limitations (biases and errors) of interactomic data sets. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

30 CFR 250.515 - Blowout prevention equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... foreseeable conditions and circumstances, including subfreezing conditions. The working pressure rating of the BOP system and BOP system components shall exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the annular preventer, the...

Student Expectations of Course Content Affect Faculty Evaluations in an Abnormal Psychology Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bock, Frances A.

1979-01-01

Describes a study measuring how student expectations of an abnormal psychology course affect their rating of professors. Findings showed a significant impact, especially in relation to popularized topics. Recommends evaluative instruments separating course-related factors from instructor ratings. (CK)

Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

PubMed

Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Theta Oscillations in Visual Cortex Emerge with Experience to Convey Expected Reward Time and Experienced Reward Rate

PubMed Central

Zold, Camila L.

2015-01-01

The primary visual cortex (V1) is widely regarded as faithfully conveying the physical properties of visual stimuli. Thus, experience-induced changes in V1 are often interpreted as improving visual perception (i.e., perceptual learning). Here we describe how, with experience, cue-evoked oscillations emerge in V1 to convey expected reward time as well as to relate experienced reward rate. We show, in chronic multisite local field potential recordings from rat V1, that repeated presentation of visual cues induces the emergence of visually evoked oscillatory activity. Early in training, the visually evoked oscillations relate to the physical parameters of the stimuli. However, with training, the oscillations evolve to relate the time in which those stimuli foretell expected reward. Moreover, the oscillation prevalence reflects the reward rate recently experienced by the animal. Thus, training induces experience-dependent changes in V1 activity that relate to what those stimuli have come to signify behaviorally: when to expect future reward and at what rate. PMID:26134643

Pain Expectancies, Pain, and Functional Self-Efficacy Expectancies as Determinants of Disability in Patients with Chronic Low Back Disorders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lackner, Jeffrey M.; And Others

1996-01-01

Tested the predictive power of self-efficacy expectations of physical capabilities, expectations of pain, and expectations of reinjury on physical function in chronic back pain patients. Before assessment of function, patients rated their abilities to perform essential job tasks--functional self-efficacy (FSE)--and the likelihood working would…

Perceived Health Status: Is Obesity Perceived as a Risk Factor and Disease?

PubMed

Visscher, Tommy L S; Lakerveld, Jeroen; Olsen, Nanna; Küpers, Leanne; Ramalho, Sofia; Keaver, Laura; Brei, Christina; Bjune, Jan-Inge; Ezquerro, Silvia; Yumuk, Volkan

2017-01-01

One might expect that a perception of obesity being a risk factor and disease, contributes to effective obesity prevention and management strategies. However, obesity rates continue to increase worldwide. The question arises whether obesity is truly perceived as a risk factor and a disease. This paper aims at describing perception of obesity as risk factor and disease among individuals seeking care, individuals not seeking care, the society, and different professionals having a role in the field of obesity. The paper is a reflection of the lecture on the topic that was given at the EASO's New Investigators United's Summer School 2016 in Portugal and the discussion with the new investigators and other senior speakers. Individual obese patients seeking help are very much aware of obesity being a risk factor and disease, but perceptions regarding obesity seem to be flawed among those who do not seek help for obesity. Also, misperceptions regarding obesity play a role at different levels, including society, different political levels, the fields of health care and social work, prevention organizations, and the food and marketing industry. The food and marketing industry has an enormous role in changing perceptions by the society and policy makers. Obesity rates will continue to increase as long as individuals, the society, and professionals at different levels have false interpretations of the severity of obesity. Severe action is needed against those who are playing a role in maintaining false perceptions of obesity as a risk factor and disease. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Expectancy Effects on Conditioned Pain Modulation Are Not Influenced by Naloxone or Morphine.

PubMed

France, Christopher R; Burns, John W; Gupta, Rajnish K; Buvanendran, Asokumar; Chont, Melissa; Schuster, Erik; Orlowska, Daria; Bruehl, Stephen

2016-08-01

Recent studies suggest that participant expectations influence pain ratings during conditioned pain modulation testing. The present study extends this work by examining expectancy effects among individuals with and without chronic back pain after administration of placebo, naloxone, or morphine. This study aims to identify the influence of individual differences in expectancy on changes in heat pain ratings obtained before, during, and after a forearm ischemic pain stimulus. Participants with chronic low back pain (n = 88) and healthy controls (n = 100) rated heat pain experience (i.e., "test stimulus") before, during, and after exposure to ischemic pain (i.e., "conditioning stimulus"). Prior to testing, participants indicated whether they anticipated that their heat pain would increase, decrease, or remain unchanged during ischemic pain. Analysis of the effects of expectancy (pain increase, decrease, or no change), drug (placebo, naloxone, or morphine), and group (back pain, healthy) on changes in heat pain revealed a significant main effect of expectancy (p = 0.001), but no other significant main effects or interactions. Follow-up analyses revealed that individuals who expected lower pain during ischemia reported significantly larger decreases in heat pain as compared with those who expected either no change (p = 0.004) or increased pain (p = 0.001). The present findings confirm that expectancy is an important contributor to conditioned pain modulation effects, and therefore significant caution is needed when interpreting findings that do not account for this individual difference. Opioid mechanisms do not appear to be involved in these expectancy effects.

Life expectancy in a birth cohort of Boxers followed up from weaning to 10 years of age.

PubMed

van Hagen, Marjan A E; Ducro, Bart J; van den Broek, Jan; Knol, Bart W

2005-09-01

To determine mortality rate over time, risk factors for death, and heritability of life expectancy in Boxers. 1,733 purebred Boxers born in The Netherlands between January 1994 and March 1995. Dogs were followed up from weaning (ie, 49 days of age) to 10 years of age through use of a written questionnaire sent to owners every 6 months. Mortality rate over time, risk factors potentially associated with death, and heritability of life expectancy were examined by use of a proportional hazards model based on the Weibull distribution. stimated mortality rate during the 10-year study period for this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The probability of surviving to 5 years of age was 88%; the probability of surviving to 10 years of age was 55%. Estimated effective heritability of life expectancy was 0.076, meaning that in this population, an estimated 76% of the observed variation in life expectancy could be attributed to genetic differences among dogs that were passed from parents to their offspring. Results suggest that cumulative incidence of death from weaning to 10 years of age among this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The estimated heritability of life expectancy suggested that life expectancy can be improved by use of selective breeding.

Educational inequalities in health expectancy during the financial crisis in Denmark.

PubMed

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Eriksen, Mette Lindholm; Andersen-Ranberg, Karen; Jeune, Bernard

2015-12-01

To investigate educational differentials in health expectancy among 50-year-old Danes before and during the financial crisis. Nationwide register data on mortality were combined with data from SHARE surveys in 2006/2007 and 2010/2011 to estimate disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and expected lifetime in self-rated good health by educational level. The difference in life expectancy between 50-year-old men and women with high and low educational levels increased by 0.3 and 0.8 years, respectively. The overall educational differentials in DFLE did not change much for women, whereas for men the tendency was that DFLE increased for those with high educational level and decreased for those with less education ascending the difference by almost 2 years (from 5.9 to 7.8 years), although the difference was not statistically significant. The educational disparity in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 1.3 years for men and 1.2 years for women. The social inequality in DFLE for men and expected lifetime in self-rated good health for both genders increased slightly during the short period. The financial crisis did not seem to indicate a change in the persistent trend of the widening social gap.

Impact of Formal Mentoring on Freshmen Expectations, Graduation Rates, and GPAs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Nancy C.; Heilmann, Sharon G.; Johnson, Adrianne; Taylor, Ryan

2016-01-01

This quantitative study examines the expectations, graduation rates, and GPAs of participants (n = 113) in a formal mentorship program, "Freshmen Focus," at a small, rural Midwestern high school through the framework of organizational socialization theory (Van Maanen & Schein, 1977). Findings indicate freshmen students formed…

False-belief understanding in 2.5-year-olds: Evidence from two novel verbal spontaneous-response tasks

PubMed Central

Scott, Rose M.; He, Zijing; Baillargeon, Renée; Cummins, Denise

2011-01-01

Recent research indicates that toddlers and infants succeed at various non-verbal spontaneous-response false-belief tasks; here we asked whether toddlers would also succeed at verbal spontaneous-response false-belief tasks that imposed significant linguistic demands. 2.5-year-olds were tested using two novel tasks: a preferential-looking task in which children listened to a false-belief story while looking at a picture book (with matching and non-matching pictures), and a violation-of-expectation task in which children watched an adult “Subject” answer (correctly or incorrectly) a standard false-belief question. Positive results were obtained with both tasks, despite their linguistic demands. These results (1) support the distinction between spontaneous-and elicited-response tasks by showing that toddlers succeed at verbal false-belief tasks that do not require them to answer direct questions about agents’ false beliefs, (2) reinforce claims of robust continuity in early false-belief understanding as assessed by spontaneous-response tasks, and (3) provide researchers with new experimental tasks for exploring early false-belief understanding in neurotypical and autistic populations. PMID:22356174

False-belief understanding in 2.5-year-olds: evidence from two novel verbal spontaneous-response tasks.

PubMed

Scott, Rose M; He, Zijing; Baillargeon, Renée; Cummins, Denise

2012-03-01

Recent research indicates that toddlers and infants succeed at various non-verbal spontaneous-response false-belief tasks; here we asked whether toddlers would also succeed at verbal spontaneous-response false-belief tasks that imposed significant linguistic demands. We tested 2.5-year-olds using two novel tasks: a preferential-looking task in which children listened to a false-belief story while looking at a picture book (with matching and non-matching pictures), and a violation-of-expectation task in which children watched an adult 'Subject' answer (correctly or incorrectly) a standard false-belief question. Positive results were obtained with both tasks, despite their linguistic demands. These results (1) support the distinction between spontaneous- and elicited-response tasks by showing that toddlers succeed at verbal false-belief tasks that do not require them to answer direct questions about agents' false beliefs, (2) reinforce claims of robust continuity in early false-belief understanding as assessed by spontaneous-response tasks, and (3) provide researchers with new experimental tasks for exploring early false-belief understanding in neurotypical and autistic populations. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

[Neuropsychological study of false memory in patients with amnesia mild cognitive impairment].

PubMed

Xie, Dan-dan; Cheng, Huai-dong; Yin, Chang-lin; Lü, Xin-yi; Wang, Kai

2011-01-18

To explore the profile of false memory in aMCI (amnesia mild cognitive impairment) and to elucidate the neuropsychological mechanism of false memory. False memory provoked by pictures and feeling-of-knowing (FOK) test in episodic memory (EM) were conducted in 25 aMCI patients at our hospital from October 2009 to May 2010. And 25 age and education level-matched healthy patients were recruited into the healthy control (HC) group. As compared with HC group, the rate of false memory was higher in the aMCI group. The rate of false memory in recall stage was 26% ± 7% and that of questionnaire stage 28% ± 12%. And the difference between two group was significant (t = 14.437, 7.597, P < 0.05). The FOK-EM of correct judgment and false recognition in the aMCI group (41% ± 10%) was higher than the HC group. And the difference was significant (t = 4.207, P < 0.05). The rates of false memory in recall and questionnaire stages were positively correlated with FOK-EM in aMCI group (r = 0.563, 0.705, P < 0.01). The aMCI patients tend to have more false memory provoked by pictures. The deficit of memory monitoring in aMCI may be the foundation of false memory.

The impact of non-concordant self-report of substance use in clinical trials research.

PubMed

Clark, C Brendan; Zyambo, Cosmas M; Li, Ye; Cropsey, Karen L

2016-07-01

Studies comparing self-report substance use data to biochemical verification generally demonstrate high rates of concordance. We argue that these rates are due to the relatively high true negative rate in the general population, and high degree of honestly in treatment seeking individuals. We hypothesized that high risk individuals not seeking treatment would demonstrate low concordance and a high false negative rate of self-reported substance use. A sample of 500 individuals from a smoking cessation clinical trial was assessed over 1 year. Assessments included semi-structured interviews, questionnaires (e.g. Addiction Severity Index, etc.), and urine drug screen assays (UDS). Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to predict false negative reports for various substances across the study and determine the influence of substance use on the primary study outcome of smoking cessation. Participants demonstrated high false negative rates in reporting substances use, and the false negative rates increased as the study progressed. Established predictors of false negatives generalized to the current sample. High concordance and low false negative rates were found in self-report of nicotine use. A small but significant relationship was found in for effect of biochemically verified substance use on smoking cessation. Biochemical verification of substance use is needed in high risk populations involved in studies not directly related to the treatment of substance use, especially in populations with high threat of stigmatization. Testing should continue through the time period of the study for maximal identification of substance use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Repeat HIV Testing on Risky Sexual Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Malawi

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline; Wagner, Zachary; Sood, Neeraj

2016-01-01

A significant proportion of HIV-positive adults in sub-Saharan Africa are in serodiscordant relationships. Identification of such serodiscordant couples through couple HIV testing and counseling (HTC) is thought to promote safe sexual behavior and reduce the probability of within couple seroconversion. However, it is possible HTC benefits are not sustained over time and therefore repeated HTC may be more effective at preventing seroconversion than one time HTC. We tested this theory in Zomba, Malawi by randomly assigning 170 serodiscordant couples to receive repeated HTC and 167 serodiscordant couples to receive one time HTC upon study enrollment (control group). We used linear probability models and probit model with couple fixed effects to assess the impact of the intervention on risky sexual behavior. At one-year follow-up, we found that couples that received repeated HTC reported significantly more condom use. However, we found no difference in rate of seroconversion between groups, nor did we find differences in subjective expectations about seroconversion or false beliefs about HIV, two expected pathways of behavior change. We conclude that repeated HTC may promote safe sexual behavior, but this result should be interpreted with caution, as it is inconsistent with the result from biological and subjective outcomes. PMID:27158553

The Impact of Repeat HIV Testing on Risky Sexual Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Malawi.

PubMed

Delavande, Adeline; Wagner, Zachary; Sood, Neeraj

2016-03-01

A significant proportion of HIV-positive adults in sub-Saharan Africa are in serodiscordant relationships. Identification of such serodiscordant couples through couple HIV testing and counseling (HTC) is thought to promote safe sexual behavior and reduce the probability of within couple seroconversion. However, it is possible HTC benefits are not sustained over time and therefore repeated HTC may be more effective at preventing seroconversion than one time HTC. We tested this theory in Zomba, Malawi by randomly assigning 170 serodiscordant couples to receive repeated HTC and 167 serodiscordant couples to receive one time HTC upon study enrollment (control group). We used linear probability models and probit model with couple fixed effects to assess the impact of the intervention on risky sexual behavior. At one-year follow-up, we found that couples that received repeated HTC reported significantly more condom use. However, we found no difference in rate of seroconversion between groups, nor did we find differences in subjective expectations about seroconversion or false beliefs about HIV, two expected pathways of behavior change. We conclude that repeated HTC may promote safe sexual behavior, but this result should be interpreted with caution, as it is inconsistent with the result from biological and subjective outcomes.

Presymptomatic atrophy in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease: A serial magnetic resonance imaging study.

PubMed

Kinnunen, Kirsi M; Cash, David M; Poole, Teresa; Frost, Chris; Benzinger, Tammie L S; Ahsan, R Laila; Leung, Kelvin K; Cardoso, M Jorge; Modat, Marc; Malone, Ian B; Morris, John C; Bateman, Randall J; Marcus, Daniel S; Goate, Alison; Salloway, Stephen P; Correia, Stephen; Sperling, Reisa A; Chhatwal, Jasmeer P; Mayeux, Richard P; Brickman, Adam M; Martins, Ralph N; Farlow, Martin R; Ghetti, Bernardino; Saykin, Andrew J; Jack, Clifford R; Schofield, Peter R; McDade, Eric; Weiner, Michael W; Ringman, John M; Thompson, Paul M; Masters, Colin L; Rowe, Christopher C; Rossor, Martin N; Ourselin, Sebastien; Fox, Nick C

2018-01-01

Identifying at what point atrophy rates first change in Alzheimer's disease is important for informing design of presymptomatic trials. Serial T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans of 94 participants (28 noncarriers, 66 carriers) from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network were used to measure brain, ventricular, and hippocampal atrophy rates. For each structure, nonlinear mixed-effects models estimated the change-points when atrophy rates deviate from normal and the rates of change before and after this point. Atrophy increased after the change-point, which occurred 1-1.5 years (assuming a single step change in atrophy rate) or 3-8 years (assuming gradual acceleration of atrophy) before expected symptom onset. At expected symptom onset, estimated atrophy rates were at least 3.6 times than those before the change-point. Atrophy rates are pathologically increased up to seven years before "expected onset". During this period, atrophy rates may be useful for inclusion and tracking of disease progression. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reduced effects of pictorial distinctiveness on false memory following dynamic visual noise.

PubMed

Parker, Andrew; Kember, Timothy; Dagnall, Neil

2017-07-01

High levels of false recognition for non-presented items typically occur following exposure to lists of associated words. These false recognition effects can be reduced by making the studied items more distinctive by the presentation of pictures during encoding. One explanation of this is that during recognition, participants expect or attempt to retrieve distinctive pictorial information in order to evaluate the study status of the test item. If this involves the retrieval and use of visual imagery, then interfering with imagery processing should reduce the effectiveness of pictorial information in false memory reduction. In the current experiment, visual-imagery processing was disrupted at retrieval by the use of dynamic visual noise (DVN). It was found that effects of DVN dissociated true from false memory. Memory for studied words was not influenced by the presence of an interfering noise field. However, false memory was increased and the effects of picture-induced distinctiveness was eliminated. DVN also increased false recollection and remember responses to unstudied items.

Characterization of Dementia and Alzheimer’s Disease in an Older Population: Updated Incidence and Life Expectancy With and Without Dementia

PubMed Central

Tom, Sarah E.; Hubbard, Rebecca A.; Crane, Paul K.; Haneuse, Sebastien J.; Bowen, James; McCormick, Wayne C.; McCurry, Susan; Larson, Eric B.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We estimated dementia incidence rates, life expectancies with and without dementia, and percentage of total life expectancy without dementia. Methods. We studied 3605 members of Group Health (Seattle, WA) aged 65 years or older who did not have dementia at enrollment to the Adult Changes in Thought study between 1994 and 2008. We estimated incidence rates of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia, as well as life expectancies with and without dementia, defined as the average number of years one is expected to live with and without dementia, and percentage of total life expectancy without dementia. Results. Dementia incidence increased through ages 85 to 89 years (74.2 cases per 1000 person-years) and 90 years or older (105 cases per 1000 person-years). Life expectancy without dementia and percentage of total life expectancy without dementia decreased with age. Life expectancy with dementia was longer in women and people with at least a college degree. Percentage of total life expectancy without dementia was greater in younger age groups, men, and those with more education. Conclusions. Efforts to delay onset of dementia, if successful, would likely benefit older adults of all ages. PMID:25033130

Influence of depressed patients' expectations prior to electroconvulsive therapy on its effectiveness and tolerability (Exp-ECT): a prospective study.

PubMed

Krech, Lisa; Belz, Michael; Besse, Matthias; Methfessel, Isabel; Wedekind, Dirk; Zilles, David

2017-09-22

Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is the most effective therapy for severe depressive disorders. Though there are known clinical predictors of response (e.g., higher age, presence of psychotic symptoms), there is a lack of knowledge concerning the impact of patients' expectations on treatment outcome and tolerability in terms of possible placebo/nocebo effects. In 31 patients with unipolar or bipolar depressive disorder, we used a questionnaire to investigate the patients' expectations of ECT effectiveness and tolerability prior to and in the course of the treatment. Additionally, the questionnaire was used after the ECT course for a final assessment. Depressive symptoms and putative side-effects were measured at each time point. General linear models were used to analyze the course of depressive symptoms and patients' expectation of ECT effectiveness and tolerability. ECT significantly reduced depressive symptoms with large effect sizes. Patients' rating of ECT effectiveness decreased in parallel: While responders' rating of ECT effectiveness remained stable on a high level, non-responders' rating decreased significantly. Group difference was significant after, but not prior to and during the treatment. Regarding tolerability, there was a (temporary) significant increase in the severity of self-rated symptoms such as headache and memory impairment. In contrast, patients' expectation and assessment of ECT tolerability remained unchanged, and their expectations prior to ECT had no impact on the occurrence of side-effects. These findings contradict the presence of relevant placebo/nocebo effects in the context of ECT when investigating a population of mostly chronic or treatment resistant patients with moderate to severe depressive disorder.

Meeting the Institute of Medicine’s 2030 US Life Expectancy Target

PubMed Central

Kindig, David; Nobles, Jenna; Zidan, Moheb

2018-01-01

Objectives To quantify the improvement in US life expectancy required to reach parity with high-resource nations by 2030, to document historical precedent of this rate, and to discuss the plausibility of achieving this rate in the United States. Methods We performed a demographic analysis of secondary data in 5-year periods from 1985 to 2015. Results To achieve the United Nations projected mortality estimates for Western Europe in 2030, the US life expectancy must grow at 0.32% a year between 2016 and 2030. This rate has precedent, even in low-mortality populations. Over 204 country-periods examined, nearly half exhibited life-expectancy growth greater than 0.32%. Of the 51 US states observed, 8.2% of state-periods demonstrated life-expectancy growth that exceeded the 0.32% target. Conclusions Achieving necessary growth in life expectancy over the next 15 years despite historical precedent will be challenging. Much all-cause mortality is structured decades earlier and, at present, older-age mortality reductions in the United States are decelerating. Addressing mortality decline at all ages will require enhanced political will and a strong commitment to equity improvement in the US population. PMID:29161064

Drinking Patterns, Drinking Expectancies, and Coping after Spinal Cord Injury.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heinemann, Allen W.; And Others

1994-01-01

Drinking patterns, alcohol expectancies, and coping strategies were assessed for 121 persons with recent spinal cord injuries during hospitalization, 3 months after surgery, and 12 months after surgery. Although the rate of heavy drinking decreased, preinjury problem drinkers still had the lowest rate of positive reappraisal, problem solving, and…

30 CFR 250.516 - Blowout prevention equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pressure rating of the BOP system and BOP system components shall exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the...-control procedure that indicates how the annular preventer will be utilized, and the pressure limitations...

30 CFR 250.516 - Blowout prevention equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pressure rating of the BOP system and BOP system components shall exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the...-control procedure that indicates how the annular preventer will be utilized, and the pressure limitations...

30 CFR 250.616 - Blowout prevention equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pressure rating of the BOP system and system components shall exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the... pressure limitations that will be applied during each mode of pressure control. (b) The minimum BOP system...

30 CFR 250.616 - Blowout prevention equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pressure rating of the BOP system and system components shall exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the... pressure limitations that will be applied during each mode of pressure control. (b) The minimum BOP system...

30 CFR 250.615 - Blowout prevention equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pressure rating of the BOP system and system components shall exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the... pressure limitations that will be applied during each mode of pressure control. (b) The minimum BOP system...

30 CFR 250.515 - Blowout prevention equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pressure rating of the BOP system and BOP system components shall exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the...-control procedure that indicates how the annular preventer will be utilized, and the pressure limitations...

False-positive rate determination of protein target discovery using a covalent modification- and mass spectrometry-based proteomics platform.

PubMed

Strickland, Erin C; Geer, M Ariel; Hong, Jiyong; Fitzgerald, Michael C

2014-01-01

Detection and quantitation of protein-ligand binding interactions is important in many areas of biological research. Stability of proteins from rates of oxidation (SPROX) is an energetics-based technique for identifying the proteins targets of ligands in complex biological mixtures. Knowing the false-positive rate of protein target discovery in proteome-wide SPROX experiments is important for the correct interpretation of results. Reported here are the results of a control SPROX experiment in which chemical denaturation data is obtained on the proteins in two samples that originated from the same yeast lysate, as would be done in a typical SPROX experiment except that one sample would be spiked with the test ligand. False-positive rates of 1.2-2.2% and <0.8% are calculated for SPROX experiments using Q-TOF and Orbitrap mass spectrometer systems, respectively. Our results indicate that the false-positive rate is largely determined by random errors associated with the mass spectral analysis of the isobaric mass tag (e.g., iTRAQ®) reporter ions used for peptide quantitation. Our results also suggest that technical replicates can be used to effectively eliminate such false positives that result from this random error, as is demonstrated in a SPROX experiment to identify yeast protein targets of the drug, manassantin A. The impact of ion purity in the tandem mass spectral analyses and of background oxidation on the false-positive rate of protein target discovery using SPROX is also discussed.

[Evaluation of performance of five bioinformatics software for the prediction of missense mutations].

PubMed

Chen, Qianting; Dai, Congling; Zhang, Qianjun; Du, Juan; Li, Wen

2016-10-01

To study the prediction performance evaluation with five kinds of bioinformatics software (SIFT, PolyPhen2, MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor). From own database for genetic mutations collected over the past five years, Chinese literature database, Human Gene Mutation Database, and dbSNP, 121 missense mutations confirmed by functional studies, and 121 missense mutations suspected to be pathogenic by pedigree analysis were used as positive gold standard, while 242 missense mutations with minor allele frequency (MAF)>5% in dominant hereditary diseases were used as negative gold standard. The selected mutations were predicted with the five software. Based on the results, the performance of the five software was evaluated for their sensitivity, specificity, positive predict value, false positive rate, negative predict value, false negative rate, false discovery rate, accuracy, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). In terms of sensitivity, negative predictive value and false negative rate, the rank was MutationTaster, PolyPhen2, Provean, SIFT, and MutationAssessor. For specificity and false positive rate, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor, SIFT, and PolyPhen2. For positive predict value and false discovery rate, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor, PolyPhen2, and SIFT. For area under the ROC curve (AUC) and accuracy, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, PolyPhen2, MutationAssessor, and SIFT. The prediction performance of software may be different when using different parameters. Among the five software, MutationTaster has the best prediction performance.

Parity Nonconservation in Proton-Proton and Proton-Water Scattering at 1.5 GeV/c

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Mischke, R. E.; Bowman, J. D.; Carlini, R.; MacArthur, D.; Nagle, D. E.; Frauenfelder, H.; Harper, R. W.; Yuan, V.; McDonald, A. B.; Talaga, R. L.

1984-07-01

Experiments searching for parity nonconservation in the scattering of 1.5 GeV/c (800 MeV) polarized protons from an unpolarized water target and a liquid hydrogen target are described. The intensity of the incident proton beam was measured upstream and downstream of the target by a pair of ionization detectors. The beam helicity was reversed at a 30-Hz rate. Auxiliary detectors monitored beam properties that could give rise to false effects. The result for the longitudinal asymmetry from the water is A{sub L} = (1.7 +- 3.3 +- 1.4) x 10{sup -7}, where the first error is statistical and the second is an estimate of systematic effects. The hydrogen data yield a preliminary result of A{sub L} = (1.0 +- 1.6) x 10{sup -7}. The systematic errors for p-p are expected to be < 1 x 10{sup -7}.

'Silent' and 'noisy' areas: acute flaccid paralysis surveillance at subnational level, Australia, 2001-2015.

PubMed

Butler, Michelle; Paterson, Beverley J; Martin, Nicolee; Hobday, Linda; Thorley, Bruce; Durrheim, David N

2017-05-01

Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance rates are used as an indicator of surveillance sensitivity to detect poliomyelitis with an expected rate of ≥1 case per 100 000 population in children under 15 years of age. The Australian AFP detection rates at sub-national (statistical local area) level were analysed using χ2 goodness of fit tests and exact Poisson probabilities for the combined years 2001-2015 to detect 'silent areas', which may require improved AFP detection efforts, and areas with greater than expected rates, which may indicate unexplained clusters such as those due to enterovirus infection. Eight (n=8/87, 9%) local areas had AFP surveillance detection rates that were less than expected, and eighteen local areas (n=18/87, 21%) had rates that were greater than expected. However, based on available evidence, it is unlikely that these indicated previously unidentified, enterovirus clusters. While Australia has regularly met the national AFP surveillance performance indicators, at the subnational level nine per cent of local areas demonstrated statistically significant lower AFP detection rates. All countries, even those with relatively small populations, should actively identify silent AFP areas to prompt surveillance improvements. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

What do expectant fathers expect of antenatal care in Sweden? A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Andersson, Ewa; Norman, Åse; Kanlinder, Camilla; Plantin, Lars

2016-10-01

In Sweden expectant fathers are now assumed to be active participants in pregnancy and birth, but few studies have focused on fathers' expectations of antenatal care. Knowledge of expectant fathers' views about what is important in antenatal care will enable the design of care that is more inclusive and meets the expectant fathers' needs. To identify expectant fathers' expectations regarding the content of antenatal care during pregnancy and to examine associations between expectations and social factors. The current study uses data from a quasi-experimental trial that took place from 2009 to 2010, in which 627 expectant fathers were recruited from different parts of Sweden. Checking the health of the baby (85.3%) and the mother (80.8%) were rated highest in importance by expectant fathers, whereas attending parent classes (14.9%), becoming acquainted with other expectant parents (7.0%) and paying attention to their own emotional well-being (6.9%) were rated lowest. Furthermore, less than half of the expectant fathers had a very high expectation of being treated in a way that made them feel involved (38.5%).First-time fathers, young fathers and fathers with very good emotional health had higher expectations about most aspects of antenatal care. Expectant fathers had low expectations of receiving support or of meeting other parents as they thought that antenatal care should have a medical focus. First-time fathers, young fathers and fathers with very good emotional health had higher expectations of antenatal care in most areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Adolescent Social Expectations

PubMed Central

Loeb, Emily L.; Hessel, Elenda T.; Allen, Joseph P.

2015-01-01

Adolescents’ negative social expectations of their peers were examined as long-term predictors of problematic self-reported social functioning. Early adolescent negative expectations were hypothesized to predict risk-averse functioning in late adolescence that would ultimately contribute to confirmation of those expectations. Utilizing observational data and friend- and self-reports from a community sample of 184 adolescents followed from ages 13 to 25, adolescents with more negative expectations were found to have become increasingly submissive with friends over time and were rated as less romantically appealing by late adolescence (after controlling for baseline levels of these variables, baseline friend-rated social competence and self-reported depressive symptoms). In turn, submissiveness and romantic appeal predicted problematic self-reported social functioning well into adulthood and mediated the relationship between adolescent negative expectations and problematic self-reported adult social functioning. These findings support the possibility of a self-fulfilling social process unfolding from early adolescence to adulthood. PMID:28082755

Life expectancy and cardiovascular mortality in persons with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Laursen, Thomas M; Munk-Olsen, Trine; Vestergaard, Mogens

2012-03-01

To assess the impact of cardiovascular disease on the excess mortality and shortened life expectancy in schizophrenic patients. Patients with schizophrenia have two-fold to three-fold higher mortality rates compared with the general population, corresponding to a 10-25-year reduction in life expectancy. Although the mortality rate from suicide is high, natural causes of death account for a greater part of the reduction in life expectancy. The reviewed studies suggest four main reasons for the excess mortality and reduced life expectancy. First, persons with schizophrenia tend to have suboptimal lifestyles including unhealthy diets, excessive smoking and alcohol use, and lack of exercise. Second, antipsychotic drugs may have adverse effects. Third, physical illnesses in persons with schizophrenia are common, but diagnosed late and treated insufficiently. Lastly, the risk of suicide and accidents among schizophrenic patients is high. Schizophrenia is associated with a substantially higher mortality and curtailed life expectancy partly caused by modifiable risk factors.

Challenges in assessing hospital-level stroke mortality as a quality measure: comparison of ischemic, intracerebral hemorrhage, and total stroke mortality rates.

PubMed

Xian, Ying; Holloway, Robert G; Pan, Wenqin; Peterson, Eric D

2012-06-01

Public reporting efforts currently profile hospitals based on overall stroke mortality rates, yet the "mix" of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke cases may impact this rate. Using the 2005 to 2006 New York state data, we examined the degree to which hospital stroke mortality rankings varied regarding ischemic versus hemorrhagic versus total stroke. Observed/expected ratio was calculated using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Inpatient Quality Indicator software. The observed/expected ratio and outlier status based on stroke types across hospitals were examined using Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and weighted κ. Overall 30-day stroke mortality rates were 15.2% and varied from 11.3% for ischemic stroke and 37.3% for intracerebral hemorrhage. Hospital risk-adjusted ischemic stroke observed/expected ratio was weakly correlated with its own intracerebral hemorrhage observed/expected ratio (r=0.38). When examining hospital performance group (mortality better, worse, or no different than average), disagreement was observed in 35 of 81 hospitals (κ=0.23). Total stroke mortality observed/expected ratio and rankings were correlated with intracerebral hemorrhage (r=0.61 and κ=0.36) and ischemic stroke (r=0.94 and κ=0.71), but many hospitals still switched classification depending on mortality metrics. However, hospitals treating a higher percent of hemorrhagic stroke did not have a statistically significant higher total stroke mortality rate relative to those treating fewer hemorrhagic strokes. Hospital stroke mortality ratings varied considerably depending on whether ischemic, hemorrhagic, or total stroke mortality rates were used. Public reporting of stroke mortality measures should consider providing risk-adjusted outcome on separate stroke types.

Age Differences in the Rejection of False Memories: The Effects of Giving Warning Instructions and Slowing the Presentation Rate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carneiro, Paula; Fernandez, Angel

2010-01-01

Two experiments were conducted to examine whether children of different ages differ in their ability to reject associative false memories with the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Two different types of manipulations that are thought to facilitate false memory rejection in adults--slowing the presentation rate and issuing explicit…

Brain activation for spontaneous and explicit false belief tasks overlaps: new fMRI evidence on belief processing and violation of expectation.

PubMed

Bardi, Lara; Desmet, Charlotte; Nijhof, Annabel; Wiersema, Jan R; Brass, Marcel

2017-03-01

There is extensive discussion on whether spontaneous and explicit forms of ToM are based on the same cognitive/neural mechanisms or rather reflect qualitatively different processes. For the first time, we analyzed the BOLD signal for false belief processing by directly comparing spontaneous and explicit ToM task versions. In both versions, participants watched videos of a scene including an agent who acquires a true or false belief about the location of an object (belief formation phase). At the end of the movies (outcome phase), participants had to react to the presence of the object. During the belief formation phase, greater activity was found for false vs true belief trials in the right posterior parietal cortex. The ROI analysis of the right temporo-parietal junction (TPJ), confirmed this observation. Moreover, the anterior medial prefrontal cortex (aMPFC) was active during the outcome phase, being sensitive to violation of both the participant's and agent's expectations about the location of the object. Activity in the TPJ and aMPFC was not modulated by the spontaneous/explicit task. Overall, these data show that neural mechanisms for spontaneous and explicit ToM overlap. Interestingly, a dissociation between TPJ and aMPFC for belief tracking and outcome evaluation, respectively, was also found. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Brain activation for spontaneous and explicit false belief tasks overlaps: new fMRI evidence on belief processing and violation of expectation

PubMed Central

Desmet, Charlotte; Nijhof, Annabel; Wiersema, Jan R.; Brass, Marcel

2017-01-01

Abstract There is extensive discussion on whether spontaneous and explicit forms of ToM are based on the same cognitive/neural mechanisms or rather reflect qualitatively different processes. For the first time, we analyzed the BOLD signal for false belief processing by directly comparing spontaneous and explicit ToM task versions. In both versions, participants watched videos of a scene including an agent who acquires a true or false belief about the location of an object (belief formation phase). At the end of the movies (outcome phase), participants had to react to the presence of the object. During the belief formation phase, greater activity was found for false vs true belief trials in the right posterior parietal cortex. The ROI analysis of the right temporo-parietal junction (TPJ), confirmed this observation. Moreover, the anterior medial prefrontal cortex (aMPFC) was active during the outcome phase, being sensitive to violation of both the participant’s and agent’s expectations about the location of the object. Activity in the TPJ and aMPFC was not modulated by the spontaneous/explicit task. Overall, these data show that neural mechanisms for spontaneous and explicit ToM overlap. Interestingly, a dissociation between TPJ and aMPFC for belief tracking and outcome evaluation, respectively, was also found. PMID:27683425

Motivation and expectancy influences in placebo responding: the mediating role of attention.

PubMed

Aigner, Carrie; Svanum, Soren

2014-12-01

Drawing upon research in perception and motivation, the current study proposes a motivation-attention model of placebo in which more motivated persons pay greater attention to placebo-related stimuli, directly influencing placebo response. We manipulated both motivation to respond to placebo and expectations of placebo response in a 2 × 2 design. Participants (N = 152) evaluated a series of placebo pheromones (slightly scented water) of potential romantic dates and made desirability ratings. Consistent with hypotheses, more highly motivated participants demonstrated greater placebo responses, as evidenced by higher desirability ratings of the "pheromone" and greater variability among ratings, when compared to less motivated participants. Moreover, the relation between motivation and placebo response was mediated by attention. Contrary to expectations, we found no effect for expectancy. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and the mediating factor of attention in placebo and support goal-oriented models of placebo. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

An extended sequential goodness-of-fit multiple testing method for discrete data.

PubMed

Castro-Conde, Irene; Döhler, Sebastian; de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo

2017-10-01

The sequential goodness-of-fit (SGoF) multiple testing method has recently been proposed as an alternative to the familywise error rate- and the false discovery rate-controlling procedures in high-dimensional problems. For discrete data, the SGoF method may be very conservative. In this paper, we introduce an alternative SGoF-type procedure that takes into account the discreteness of the test statistics. Like the original SGoF, our new method provides weak control of the false discovery rate/familywise error rate but attains false discovery rate levels closer to the desired nominal level, and thus it is more powerful. We study the performance of this method in a simulation study and illustrate its application to a real pharmacovigilance data set.

Working life tables, Bangladesh 1981.

PubMed

Matin, K A

1986-06-01

Data from the 1981 Bangladesh Population Census were used to construct life tables for working men and women. Bangladesh has a dependency burden of 109 dependents to 100 economically active population. Labor force participation rates in 1981 were 74.1/100 population aged 10 years and over for males and 4.3/100 population aged 10 years and over for females. The age-specific economic activity rates provided the essential link in translating life table data to working life table data. It was calculated that a newborn Bangladesh male had a working life expectancy of 37.8 years and an overall life expectancy of 50.0 years; working life expectancy peaks at 44.2 years at 10 years of age. A newborn female has a working life expectancy of 1.8 years and an overall life expectancy of 49.0 years; a maximum working life expectancy of 2.4 years is obtained at 10 years of age. In the period 1962-81, male working life expectancy registered a slight decline at all ages, while female working life expectancy increased by about 6 months for ages up to 30 years. Mortality accounts for a loss of about 10% of gross years of active life in the 10-69-year goups and 20% in the 10-79-year age group. The male working life expectancy values for Bangladesh in 1981 correspond well with those found in India in 1971, Pakistan in 1978, and Sri Lanka in 1971. However, there is wide divergency in terms of female working life expectancy values: such rates were significantly higher in Sri Lanka and India than in Bangladesh up to the age of 30 years, after which point there was little divergence.

Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland.

PubMed

Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2014-12-01

The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability. Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (p<0.01). For men, life expectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (p<0.001). The increase for women by 1.4 years was non-significant (p=0.29). Expected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women. The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

PubMed

2017-09-16

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Decision Theoretic Approach to Evaluate Radiation Detection Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nobles, Mallory A.; Sego, Landon H.; Cooley, Scott K.

2013-07-01

There are a variety of sensor systems deployed at U.S. border crossings and ports of entry that scan for illicit nuclear material. In this work, we develop a framework for comparing the performance of detection algorithms that interpret the output of these scans and determine when secondary screening is needed. We optimize each algorithm to minimize its risk, or expected loss. We measure an algorithm’s risk by considering its performance over a sample, the probability distribution of threat sources, and the consequence of detection errors. While it is common to optimize algorithms by fixing one error rate and minimizing another,more » our framework allows one to simultaneously consider multiple types of detection errors. Our framework is flexible and easily adapted to many different assumptions regarding the probability of a vehicle containing illicit material, and the relative consequences of a false positive and false negative errors. Our methods can therefore inform decision makers of the algorithm family and parameter values which best reduce the threat from illicit nuclear material, given their understanding of the environment at any point in time. To illustrate the applicability of our methods, in this paper, we compare the risk from two families of detection algorithms and discuss the policy implications of our results.« less

Design of Secure ECG-Based Biometric Authentication in Body Area Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Peter, Steffen; Pratap Reddy, Bhanu; Momtaz, Farshad; Givargis, Tony

2016-01-01

Body area sensor networks (BANs) utilize wireless communicating sensor nodes attached to a human body for convenience, safety, and health applications. Physiological characteristics of the body, such as the heart rate or Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, are promising means to simplify the setup process and to improve security of BANs. This paper describes the design and implementation steps required to realize an ECG-based authentication protocol to identify sensor nodes attached to the same human body. Therefore, the first part of the paper addresses the design of a body-area sensor system, including the hardware setup, analogue and digital signal processing, and required ECG feature detection techniques. A model-based design flow is applied, and strengths and limitations of each design step are discussed. Real-world measured data originating from the implemented sensor system are then used to set up and parametrize a novel physiological authentication protocol for BANs. The authentication protocol utilizes statistical properties of expected and detected deviations to limit the number of false positive and false negative authentication attempts. The result of the described holistic design effort is the first practical implementation of biometric authentication in BANs that reflects timing and data uncertainties in the physical and cyber parts of the system. PMID:27110785

Design of Secure ECG-Based Biometric Authentication in Body Area Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Peter, Steffen; Reddy, Bhanu Pratap; Momtaz, Farshad; Givargis, Tony

2016-04-22

Body area sensor networks (BANs) utilize wireless communicating sensor nodes attached to a human body for convenience, safety, and health applications. Physiological characteristics of the body, such as the heart rate or Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, are promising means to simplify the setup process and to improve security of BANs. This paper describes the design and implementation steps required to realize an ECG-based authentication protocol to identify sensor nodes attached to the same human body. Therefore, the first part of the paper addresses the design of a body-area sensor system, including the hardware setup, analogue and digital signal processing, and required ECG feature detection techniques. A model-based design flow is applied, and strengths and limitations of each design step are discussed. Real-world measured data originating from the implemented sensor system are then used to set up and parametrize a novel physiological authentication protocol for BANs. The authentication protocol utilizes statistical properties of expected and detected deviations to limit the number of false positive and false negative authentication attempts. The result of the described holistic design effort is the first practical implementation of biometric authentication in BANs that reflects timing and data uncertainties in the physical and cyber parts of the system.

A false-alarm aware methodology to develop robust and efficient multi-scale infrared small target detection algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, Saed; Moallem, Payman; Sabahi, Mohamad Farzan

2018-03-01

False alarm rate and detection rate are still two contradictory metrics for infrared small target detection in an infrared search and track system (IRST), despite the development of new detection algorithms. In certain circumstances, not detecting true targets is more tolerable than detecting false items as true targets. Hence, considering background clutter and detector noise as the sources of the false alarm in an IRST system, in this paper, a false alarm aware methodology is presented to reduce false alarm rate while the detection rate remains undegraded. To this end, advantages and disadvantages of each detection algorithm are investigated and the sources of the false alarms are determined. Two target detection algorithms having independent false alarm sources are chosen in a way that the disadvantages of the one algorithm can be compensated by the advantages of the other one. In this work, multi-scale average absolute gray difference (AAGD) and Laplacian of point spread function (LoPSF) are utilized as the cornerstones of the desired algorithm of the proposed methodology. After presenting a conceptual model for the desired algorithm, it is implemented through the most straightforward mechanism. The desired algorithm effectively suppresses background clutter and eliminates detector noise. Also, since the input images are processed through just four different scales, the desired algorithm has good capability for real-time implementation. Simulation results in term of signal to clutter ratio and background suppression factor on real and simulated images prove the effectiveness and the performance of the proposed methodology. Since the desired algorithm was developed based on independent false alarm sources, our proposed methodology is expandable to any pair of detection algorithms which have different false alarm sources.

Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow.

PubMed

Andersen, Ken H; Brander, Keith

2009-07-14

Commercial fisheries exert high mortalities on the stocks they exploit, and the consequent selection pressure leads to fisheries-induced evolution of growth rate, age and size at maturation, and reproductive output. Productivity and yields may decline as a result, but little is known about the rate at which such changes are likely to occur. Fisheries-induced evolution of exploited populations has recently become a subject of concern for policy makers, fisheries managers, and the general public, with prominent calls for mitigating management action. We make a general evolutionary impact assessment of fisheries by calculating the expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution and the consequent changes in yield. Rates of evolution are expected to be approximately 0.1-0.6% per year, and the consequent reductions in fisheries yield are <0.7% per year. These rates are at least a factor of 5 lower than published values based on experiments and analyses of population time series, and we explain why the published rates may be overestimates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgent than reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on their marine ecosystems.

Effects of Teacher Expectancies: Myth or Reality?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aron, Robert; And Others

This study manipulates the variables of children's ethnicity, sex, and ability to ascertain the nature of the interaction relationship between teacher expectancies and student performance. The subjects were urban teachers who were asked to read case histories and then rate the child on a Likert-type family and pupil behavior rating form and a…

30 CFR 250.1706 - What are the requirements for blowout prevention equipment?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... circumstances, including subfreezing conditions. The working pressure rating of the BOP system and system components must exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the annular preventer, you must submit with Form BSEE-0124...

30 CFR 250.1706 - What are the requirements for blowout prevention equipment?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... circumstances, including subfreezing conditions. The working pressure rating of the BOP system and system components must exceed the expected surface pressure to which they may be subjected. If the expected surface pressure exceeds the rated working pressure of the annular preventer, you must submit with Form BSEE-0124...

An Evaluation of the Student Service Expectations of Freshmen at a Small, Midwestern Liberal Arts University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bladdick, Jerry Michael

2012-01-01

Increasing freshmen student retention and ultimately increasing their graduation rates continues to be a critical matter for institutions of higher education. Therefore, colleges and universities are attempting to understand the student service expectations of freshmen students as a primary mechanism to enhance matriculation rates. University…

Expected rates with mini-arrays for air showers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazen, W. E.

1985-01-01

As a guide in the design of mini-arrays used to exploit the Linsley effect in the study of air showers, it is useful to calculate the expected rates. The results can aid in the choice of detectors and their placement or in predicting the utility of existing detector systems. Furthermore, the potential of the method can be appraised for the study of large showers. Specifically, we treat the case of a mini-array of dimensions small enough compared to the distance of axes of showers of interest so that it can be considered a point detector. The input information is taken from the many previous studies of air showers by other groups. The calculations will give: (1) the expected integral rate, F(sigma, rho), for disk thickness, sigma, or rise time, t sub 1/2, with local particle density, rho, as a parameter; (2) the effective detection area A(N) with sigma (min) and rho (min) and rho (min) as parameters; (3) the expected rate of collection of data F sub L (N) versus shower size, N.

How do parent expectations promote child academic achievement in early elementary school? A test of three mediators.

PubMed

Loughlin-Presnal, John; Bierman, Karen L

2017-09-01

Using a longitudinal mediation framework and a low-income sample, this study had 2 aims: (a) to model bidirectional associations between parent academic expectations and child academic outcomes from first through fifth grade, and (b) to explore 3 mediators of parental influence: parent involvement in child schooling, child learning behaviors, and child perceived academic competence. Participants included 356 children and their caregivers (89% mothers) recruited from Head Start centers (58% European American, 25% African American, 17% Latino). At each time point (grades 1, 2, 3, 5), parents rated their academic expectations, teachers rated parent involvement and child learning behaviors, and children rated their self-perceptions of their academic competence. Bidirectional longitudinal associations emerged between parent academic expectations and child academic outcomes. Child learning behaviors mediated this association from first to third grade, whereas child perceived academic competence mediated from second to fifth grade. Parallel cross-lagged models replicated these findings with child academic outcomes assessed using a test of reading achievement and teacher ratings of academic performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Illusory expectations can affect retrieval-monitoring accuracy.

PubMed

McDonough, Ian M; Gallo, David A

2012-03-01

The present study investigated how expectations, even when illusory, can affect the accuracy of memory decisions. Participants studied words presented in large or small font for subsequent memory tests. Replicating prior work, judgments of learning indicated that participants expected to remember large words better than small words, even though memory for these words was equivalent on a standard test of recognition memory and subjective judgments. Critically, we also included tests that instructed participants to selectively search memory for either large or small words, thereby allowing different memorial expectations to contribute to performance. On these tests we found reduced false recognition when searching memory for large words relative to small words, such that the size illusion paradoxically affected accuracy measures (d' scores) in the absence of actual memory differences. Additional evidence for the role of illusory expectations was that (a) the accuracy effect was obtained only when participants searched memory for the aspect of the stimuli corresponding to illusory expectations (size instead of color) and (b) the accuracy effect was eliminated on a forced-choice test that prevented the influence of memorial expectations. These findings demonstrate the critical role of memorial expectations in the retrieval-monitoring process. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

A novel strategy for classifying the output from an in silico vaccine discovery pipeline for eukaryotic pathogens using machine learning algorithms.

PubMed

Goodswen, Stephen J; Kennedy, Paul J; Ellis, John T

2013-11-02

An in silico vaccine discovery pipeline for eukaryotic pathogens typically consists of several computational tools to predict protein characteristics. The aim of the in silico approach to discovering subunit vaccines is to use predicted characteristics to identify proteins which are worthy of laboratory investigation. A major challenge is that these predictions are inherent with hidden inaccuracies and contradictions. This study focuses on how to reduce the number of false candidates using machine learning algorithms rather than relying on expensive laboratory validation. Proteins from Toxoplasma gondii, Plasmodium sp., and Caenorhabditis elegans were used as training and test datasets. The results show that machine learning algorithms can effectively distinguish expected true from expected false vaccine candidates (with an average sensitivity and specificity of 0.97 and 0.98 respectively), for proteins observed to induce immune responses experimentally. Vaccine candidates from an in silico approach can only be truly validated in a laboratory. Given any in silico output and appropriate training data, the number of false candidates allocated for validation can be dramatically reduced using a pool of machine learning algorithms. This will ultimately save time and money in the laboratory.

False belief in infancy: a fresh look.

PubMed

Heyes, Cecilia

2014-09-01

Can infants appreciate that others have false beliefs? Do they have a theory of mind? In this article I provide a detailed review of more than 20 experiments that have addressed these questions, and offered an affirmative answer, using nonverbal 'violation of expectation' and 'anticipatory looking' procedures. Although many of these experiments are both elegant and ingenious, I argue that their results can be explained by the operation of domain-general processes and in terms of 'low-level novelty'. This hypothesis suggests that the infants' looking behaviour is a function of the degree to which the observed (perceptual novelty) and remembered or expected (imaginal novelty) low-level properties of the test stimuli - their colours, shapes and movements - are novel with respect to events encoded by the infants earlier in the experiment. If the low-level novelty hypothesis is correct, research on false belief in infancy currently falls short of demonstrating that infants have even an implicit theory of mind. However, I suggest that the use of two experimental strategies - inanimate control procedures, and self-informed belief induction - could be used in combination with existing methods to bring us much closer to understanding the evolutionary and developmental origins of theory of mind. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A novel strategy for classifying the output from an in silico vaccine discovery pipeline for eukaryotic pathogens using machine learning algorithms

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background An in silico vaccine discovery pipeline for eukaryotic pathogens typically consists of several computational tools to predict protein characteristics. The aim of the in silico approach to discovering subunit vaccines is to use predicted characteristics to identify proteins which are worthy of laboratory investigation. A major challenge is that these predictions are inherent with hidden inaccuracies and contradictions. This study focuses on how to reduce the number of false candidates using machine learning algorithms rather than relying on expensive laboratory validation. Proteins from Toxoplasma gondii, Plasmodium sp., and Caenorhabditis elegans were used as training and test datasets. Results The results show that machine learning algorithms can effectively distinguish expected true from expected false vaccine candidates (with an average sensitivity and specificity of 0.97 and 0.98 respectively), for proteins observed to induce immune responses experimentally. Conclusions Vaccine candidates from an in silico approach can only be truly validated in a laboratory. Given any in silico output and appropriate training data, the number of false candidates allocated for validation can be dramatically reduced using a pool of machine learning algorithms. This will ultimately save time and money in the laboratory. PMID:24180526

Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

PubMed

Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

2003-06-01

This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

Using a simulation model to assess risk of false negative point-of-care urinary human chorionic gonadotropin device results due to high-dose hook interference.

PubMed

Milhorn, Denise; Korpi-Steiner, Nichole

2015-02-01

It is unclear if the point-of-care (POC) Clinitest hCG device is subject to high-dose hook interference from physiological concentrations of intact human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), β-core fragment of hCG (hCGβcf), and hCG free β-subunit (hCGβ) found in urine during pregnancy. We used a simulation model to address this question and related our findings to our institution's pregnant population in order to assess risk for potential false-negative hCG results. The expected distribution of days relative to ovulation during routine POC hCG testing was estimated from 182 patients. Clinitest-Clinitek Status hCG device susceptibility to high-dose hook interference from hCG variants and potential risk of false-negative results as it relates to this population were evaluated by testing increasing concentrations of hCG, hCGβcf, hCGβ as well as urine simulating physiological hCG, hCGβcf and hCGβ concentrations expected during early pregnancy (≤44 days post-ovulation). The Clinitest-Clinitek Status hCG device exhibited high-dose hook interference from hCGβcf alone, but not from hCG, hCGβ, or simulated physiological urinary concentrations of combined hCG, hCGβcf and hCGβ expected during early pregnancy. The majority of our patient population had urinary hCG testing conducted during early pregnancy. The Clinitest-Clinitek Status hCG device is unlikely to exhibit false-negative urinary hCG results due to high-dose hook interference for women in early healthy pregnancy, although additional studies are necessary to determine potential risk in other patient populations. Visual interpretation of POC urinary hCG device results is an important failure mode to consider in risk analyses for erroneous urinary hCG device results. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A note on the false discovery rate of novel peptides in proteogenomics.

PubMed

Zhang, Kun; Fu, Yan; Zeng, Wen-Feng; He, Kun; Chi, Hao; Liu, Chao; Li, Yan-Chang; Gao, Yuan; Xu, Ping; He, Si-Min

2015-10-15

Proteogenomics has been well accepted as a tool to discover novel genes. In most conventional proteogenomic studies, a global false discovery rate is used to filter out false positives for identifying credible novel peptides. However, it has been found that the actual level of false positives in novel peptides is often out of control and behaves differently for different genomes. To quantitatively model this problem, we theoretically analyze the subgroup false discovery rates of annotated and novel peptides. Our analysis shows that the annotation completeness ratio of a genome is the dominant factor influencing the subgroup FDR of novel peptides. Experimental results on two real datasets of Escherichia coli and Mycobacterium tuberculosis support our conjecture. yfu@amss.ac.cn or xupingghy@gmail.com or smhe@ict.ac.cn Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Allegations of children's involvement in ritual sexual abuse: clinical experience of 20 cases.

PubMed

Weir, I K; Wheatcroft, M S

1995-04-01

Twenty cases were evaluated in which allegations had been made of children being involved in ritual sexual abuse (RSA). A selection of case histories are presented together with a summary of the salient points in the other cases. Using a standard format developed for assessing the validity of allegations in sexual abuse cases, it was concluded that false allegations of ritual sexual abuse occurred in three-quarters of the cases and true allegations only in one-quarter. This high rate of false allegations is unlike the author's clinical experience in other cases of child sexual abuse where the rate of false allegations is much lower and similar to other published series. Reasons for the high rate of false allegations are discussed.

A method for modeling the effects of climate and land use changes on erosion and sustainability of soil in a Mediterranean watershed (Languedoc, France).

PubMed

Paroissien, Jean-Baptiste; Darboux, Frédéric; Couturier, Alain; Devillers, Benoît; Mouillot, Florent; Raclot, Damien; Le Bissonnais, Yves

2015-03-01

Global climate and land use changes could strongly affect soil erosion and the capability of soils to sustain agriculture and in turn impact regional or global food security. The objective of our study was to develop a method to assess soil sustainability to erosion under changes in land use and climate. The method was applied in a typical mixed Mediterranean landscape in a wine-growing watershed (75 km(2)) within the Languedoc region (La Peyne, France) for two periods: a first period with the current climate and land use and a second period with the climate and land use scenarios at the end of the twenty-first century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B future rainfall scenarios from the Météo France General circulation model was coupled with four contrasting land use change scenarios that were designed using a spatially-explicit land use change model. Mean annual erosion rate was estimated with an expert-based soil erosion model. Soil life expectancy was assessed using soil depth. Soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy were combined into a sustainability index. The median simulated soil erosion rate for the current period was 3.5 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 273 years, showing a low sustainability of soils. For the future period with the same land use distribution, the median simulated soil erosion rate was 4.2 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 249 years. The results show that soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy are more sensitive to changes in land use than to changes in precipitation. Among the scenarios tested, institution of a mandatory grass cover in vineyards seems to be an efficient means of significantly improving soil sustainability, both in terms of decreased soil erosion rates and increased soil life expectancies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DeepARG: a deep learning approach for predicting antibiotic resistance genes from metagenomic data.

PubMed

Arango-Argoty, Gustavo; Garner, Emily; Pruden, Amy; Heath, Lenwood S; Vikesland, Peter; Zhang, Liqing

2018-02-01

Growing concerns about increasing rates of antibiotic resistance call for expanded and comprehensive global monitoring. Advancing methods for monitoring of environmental media (e.g., wastewater, agricultural waste, food, and water) is especially needed for identifying potential resources of novel antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), hot spots for gene exchange, and as pathways for the spread of ARGs and human exposure. Next-generation sequencing now enables direct access and profiling of the total metagenomic DNA pool, where ARGs are typically identified or predicted based on the "best hits" of sequence searches against existing databases. Unfortunately, this approach produces a high rate of false negatives. To address such limitations, we propose here a deep learning approach, taking into account a dissimilarity matrix created using all known categories of ARGs. Two deep learning models, DeepARG-SS and DeepARG-LS, were constructed for short read sequences and full gene length sequences, respectively. Evaluation of the deep learning models over 30 antibiotic resistance categories demonstrates that the DeepARG models can predict ARGs with both high precision (> 0.97) and recall (> 0.90). The models displayed an advantage over the typical best hit approach, yielding consistently lower false negative rates and thus higher overall recall (> 0.9). As more data become available for under-represented ARG categories, the DeepARG models' performance can be expected to be further enhanced due to the nature of the underlying neural networks. Our newly developed ARG database, DeepARG-DB, encompasses ARGs predicted with a high degree of confidence and extensive manual inspection, greatly expanding current ARG repositories. The deep learning models developed here offer more accurate antimicrobial resistance annotation relative to current bioinformatics practice. DeepARG does not require strict cutoffs, which enables identification of a much broader diversity of ARGs. The DeepARG models and database are available as a command line version and as a Web service at http://bench.cs.vt.edu/deeparg .

Eyewitness accuracy rates in police showup and lineup presentations: a meta-analytic comparison.

PubMed

Steblay, Nancy; Dysart, Jennifer; Fulero, Solomon; Lindsay, R C

2003-10-01

Meta-analysis is used to compare identification accuracy rates in showups and lineups. Eight papers were located, providing 12 tests of the hypothesis and including 3013 participants. Results indicate that showups generate lower choosing rates than lineups. In target present conditions, showups and lineups yield approximately equal hit rates, and in target absent conditions, showups produce a significantly higher level of correct rejections. False identification rates are approximately equal in showups and lineups when lineup foil choices are excluded from analysis. Dangerous false identifications are more numerous for showups when an innocent suspect resembles the perpetrator. Function of lineup foils, assessment strategies for false identifications, and the potential impact of biases in lineup practice are suggested as additional considerations in evaluation of showup versus lineup efficacy.

Are false-positive rates leading to an overestimation of noise-induced hearing loss?

PubMed

Schlauch, Robert S; Carney, Edward

2011-04-01

To estimate false-positive rates for rules proposed to identify early noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) using the presence of notches in audiograms. Audiograms collected from school-age children in a national survey of health and nutrition (the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey [NHANES III]; National Center for Health Statistics, 1994) were examined using published rules for identifying noise notches at various pass-fail criteria. These results were compared with computer-simulated "flat" audiograms. The proportion of these identified as having a noise notch is an estimate of the false-positive rate for a particular rule. Audiograms from the NHANES III for children 6-11 years of age yielded notched audiograms at rates consistent with simulations, suggesting that this group does not have significant NIHL. Further, pass-fail criteria for rules suggested by expert clinicians, applied to NHANES III audiometric data, yielded unacceptably high false-positive rates. Computer simulations provide an effective method for estimating false-positive rates for protocols used to identify notched audiograms. Audiometric precision could possibly be improved by (a) eliminating systematic calibration errors, including a possible problem with reference levels for TDH-style earphones; (b) repeating and averaging threshold measurements; and (c) using earphones that yield lower variability for 6.0 and 8.0 kHz--2 frequencies critical for identifying noise notches.

Microcomputer Enhancement of the Articulated Total Body (ATB) Biodynamic Modeling System

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

products. In view of the broad market base, continued hardware and software support can be reasonably expected. The Intel family of microprocessors...time library. Their use became sufficiently widespread that "after- market " support libraries have been written for several devices, such as the...11,11,82,12,12,11,11,12) , NPRT4 HEDING 11 LOLD - FALSE. HED ING LNEW - .TRUE. HEDING GO TO 13 HEDING 12 LOLD - .TRUE. HEDING LNEW -FALSE. FIEDING 13 MT -20 HEDING NLINES

Detecting earthquakes over a seismic network using single-station similarity measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergen, Karianne J.; Beroza, Gregory C.

2018-06-01

New blind waveform-similarity-based detection methods, such as Fingerprint and Similarity Thresholding (FAST), have shown promise for detecting weak signals in long-duration, continuous waveform data. While blind detectors are capable of identifying similar or repeating waveforms without templates, they can also be susceptible to false detections due to local correlated noise. In this work, we present a set of three new methods that allow us to extend single-station similarity-based detection over a seismic network; event-pair extraction, pairwise pseudo-association, and event resolution complete a post-processing pipeline that combines single-station similarity measures (e.g. FAST sparse similarity matrix) from each station in a network into a list of candidate events. The core technique, pairwise pseudo-association, leverages the pairwise structure of event detections in its network detection model, which allows it to identify events observed at multiple stations in the network without modeling the expected moveout. Though our approach is general, we apply it to extend FAST over a sparse seismic network. We demonstrate that our network-based extension of FAST is both sensitive and maintains a low false detection rate. As a test case, we apply our approach to 2 weeks of continuous waveform data from five stations during the foreshock sequence prior to the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake. Our method identifies nearly five times as many events as the local seismicity catalogue (including 95 per cent of the catalogue events), and less than 1 per cent of these candidate events are false detections.

A comparative evaluation of in vitro skin sensitisation tests: the human cell-line activation test (h-CLAT) versus the local lymph node assay (LLNA).

PubMed

Ashikaga, Takao; Sakaguchi, Hitoshi; Sono, Sakiko; Kosaka, Nanae; Ishikawa, Makie; Nukada, Yuko; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Ito, Yuichi; Nishiyama, Naohiro; Itagaki, Hiroshi

2010-08-01

We previously developed the human cell-line activation test (h-CLAT) in vitro skin sensitisation test, based on our reported finding that a 24-hour exposure of THP-1 cells (a human monocytic leukaemia cell line) to sensitisers is sufficient to induce the augmented expression of CD86 and CD54. The aim of this study is to confirm the predictive value of h-CLAT for skin sensitisation activity by employing a larger number of test chemicals. One hundred chemicals were selected, according to their categorisation in the local lymph node assay (LLNA), as being: extreme, strong, moderate and weak sensitisers, and non-sensitisers. The correlation of the h-CLAT results with the LLNA results was 84%. There were some false negatives (e.g. benzoyl peroxide, hexyl cinnamic aldehyde) and some false positives (e.g. 1-bromobutane, diethylphthalate). Eight out of the 9 false negatives (89%) were water-insoluble chemicals. The h-CLAT could positively predict not only extreme and strong sensitisers, but also moderate and weak sensitisers, though the detection rates of weak sensitisers and non-sensitisers were comparatively low. Some sensitisers enhanced both CD86 and CD54 levels, and some enhanced the level of only one of them. The use of the combination of CD86 and CD54 induction as a positive indicator, improved the accuracy of the test. In conclusion, the h-CLAT is expected to be a useful cell-based in vitro method for predicting skin sensitisation potential. 2010 FRAME.

Proper interpretation of chronic toxicity studies and their statistics: A critique of "Which level of evidence does the US National Toxicology Program provide? Statistical considerations using the Technical Report 578 on Ginkgo biloba as an example".

PubMed

Kissling, Grace E; Haseman, Joseph K; Zeiger, Errol

2015-09-02

A recent article by Gaus (2014) demonstrates a serious misunderstanding of the NTP's statistical analysis and interpretation of rodent carcinogenicity data as reported in Technical Report 578 (Ginkgo biloba) (NTP, 2013), as well as a failure to acknowledge the abundant literature on false positive rates in rodent carcinogenicity studies. The NTP reported Ginkgo biloba extract to be carcinogenic in mice and rats. Gaus claims that, in this study, 4800 statistical comparisons were possible, and that 209 of them were statistically significant (p<0.05) compared with 240 (4800×0.05) expected by chance alone; thus, the carcinogenicity of Ginkgo biloba extract cannot be definitively established. However, his assumptions and calculations are flawed since he incorrectly assumes that the NTP uses no correction for multiple comparisons, and that significance tests for discrete data operate at exactly the nominal level. He also misrepresents the NTP's decision making process, overstates the number of statistical comparisons made, and ignores the fact that the mouse liver tumor effects were so striking (e.g., p<0.0000000000001) that it is virtually impossible that they could be false positive outcomes. Gaus' conclusion that such obvious responses merely "generate a hypothesis" rather than demonstrate a real carcinogenic effect has no scientific credibility. Moreover, his claims regarding the high frequency of false positive outcomes in carcinogenicity studies are misleading because of his methodological misconceptions and errors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

The effects of acute alcohol intoxication on the cognitive mechanisms underlying false facial recognition.

PubMed

Colloff, Melissa F; Flowe, Heather D

2016-06-01

False face recognition rates are sometimes higher when faces are learned while under the influence of alcohol. Alcohol myopia theory (AMT) proposes that acute alcohol intoxication during face learning causes people to attend to only the most salient features of a face, impairing the encoding of less salient facial features. Yet, there is currently no direct evidence to support this claim. Our objective was to test whether acute alcohol intoxication impairs face learning by causing subjects to attend to a salient (i.e., distinctive) facial feature over other facial features, as per AMT. We employed a balanced placebo design (N = 100). Subjects in the alcohol group were dosed to achieve a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.06 %, whereas the no alcohol group consumed tonic water. Alcohol expectancy was controlled. Subjects studied faces with or without a distinctive feature (e.g., scar, piercing). An old-new recognition test followed. Some of the test faces were "old" (i.e., previously studied), and some were "new" (i.e., not previously studied). We varied whether the new test faces had a previously studied distinctive feature versus other familiar characteristics. Intoxicated and sober recognition accuracy was comparable, but subjects in the alcohol group made more positive identifications overall compared to the no alcohol group. The results are not in keeping with AMT. Rather, a more general cognitive mechanism appears to underlie false face recognition in intoxicated subjects. Specifically, acute alcohol intoxication during face learning results in more liberal choosing, perhaps because of an increased reliance on familiarity.

Proper interpretation of chronic toxicity studies and their statistics: A critique of “Which level of evidence does the US National Toxicology Program provide? Statistical considerations using the Technical Report 578 on Ginkgo biloba as an example”

PubMed Central

Kissling, Grace E.; Haseman, Joseph K.; Zeiger, Errol

2014-01-01

A recent article by Gaus (2014) demonstrates a serious misunderstanding of the NTP’s statistical analysis and interpretation of rodent carcinogenicity data as reported in Technical Report 578 (Ginkgo biloba) (NTP 2013), as well as a failure to acknowledge the abundant literature on false positive rates in rodent carcinogenicity studies. The NTP reported Ginkgo biloba extract to be carcinogenic in mice and rats. Gaus claims that, in this study, 4800 statistical comparisons were possible, and that 209 of them were statistically significant (p<0.05) compared with 240 (4800 × 0.05) expected by chance alone; thus, the carcinogenicity of Ginkgo biloba extract cannot be definitively established. However, his assumptions and calculations are flawed since he incorrectly assumes that the NTP uses no correction for multiple comparisons, and that significance tests for discrete data operate at exactly the nominal level. He also misrepresents the NTP’s decision making process, overstates the number of statistical comparisons made, and ignores that fact that that the mouse liver tumor effects were so striking (e.g., p<0.0000000000001) that it is virtually impossible that they could be false positive outcomes. Gaus’ conclusion that such obvious responses merely “generate a hypothesis” rather than demonstrate a real carcinogenic effect has no scientific credibility. Moreover, his claims regarding the high frequency of false positive outcomes in carcinogenicity studies are misleading because of his methodological misconceptions and errors. PMID:25261588

Patient education about schizophrenia: initial expectations and later satisfaction.

PubMed

Ascher-Svanum, H; Rochford, S; Cisco, D; Claveaux, A

2001-01-01

This study investigated patients' expectations prior to participation in an education program about coping with schizophrenia, and their evaluations of the program upon its completion. Adult inpatients diagnosed with schizophrenic disorders (N = 123) responded anonymously to a preintervention expectation measured and a postintervention evaluation questionnaire. Results point to high expectations of this illness self-management education program, and a high level of satisfaction upon its completion, with a self-fulfilling prophecy effect, in which those with high expectations later reported greater satisfaction. Patients perceived, however, a differential level of helpfulness of the program's nine content areas, and rated learning about diagnosis and medication management as most helpful. Content areas that were rated less helpful included prevalence of schizophrenia, its psychosocial rehabilitation, and use of community resources. Implications for clinical practice in patient education are identified and discussed.

Species classifier choice is a key consideration when analysing low-complexity food microbiome data.

PubMed

Walsh, Aaron M; Crispie, Fiona; O'Sullivan, Orla; Finnegan, Laura; Claesson, Marcus J; Cotter, Paul D

2018-03-20

The use of shotgun metagenomics to analyse low-complexity microbial communities in foods has the potential to be of considerable fundamental and applied value. However, there is currently no consensus with respect to choice of species classification tool, platform, or sequencing depth. Here, we benchmarked the performances of three high-throughput short-read sequencing platforms, the Illumina MiSeq, NextSeq 500, and Ion Proton, for shotgun metagenomics of food microbiota. Briefly, we sequenced six kefir DNA samples and a mock community DNA sample, the latter constructed by evenly mixing genomic DNA from 13 food-related bacterial species. A variety of bioinformatic tools were used to analyse the data generated, and the effects of sequencing depth on these analyses were tested by randomly subsampling reads. Compositional analysis results were consistent between the platforms at divergent sequencing depths. However, we observed pronounced differences in the predictions from species classification tools. Indeed, PERMANOVA indicated that there was no significant differences between the compositional results generated by the different sequencers (p = 0.693, R 2  = 0.011), but there was a significant difference between the results predicted by the species classifiers (p = 0.01, R 2  = 0.127). The relative abundances predicted by the classifiers, apart from MetaPhlAn2, were apparently biased by reference genome sizes. Additionally, we observed varying false-positive rates among the classifiers. MetaPhlAn2 had the lowest false-positive rate, whereas SLIMM had the greatest false-positive rate. Strain-level analysis results were also similar across platforms. Each platform correctly identified the strains present in the mock community, but accuracy was improved slightly with greater sequencing depth. Notably, PanPhlAn detected the dominant strains in each kefir sample above 500,000 reads per sample. Again, the outputs from functional profiling analysis using SUPER-FOCUS were generally accordant between the platforms at different sequencing depths. Finally, and expectedly, metagenome assembly completeness was significantly lower on the MiSeq than either on the NextSeq (p = 0.03) or the Proton (p = 0.011), and it improved with increased sequencing depth. Our results demonstrate a remarkable similarity in the results generated by the three sequencing platforms at different sequencing depths, and, in fact, the choice of bioinformatics methodology had a more evident impact on results than the choice of sequencer did.

Continuity from an implicit to an explicit understanding of false belief from infancy to preschool age.

PubMed

Thoermer, Claudia; Sodian, Beate; Vuori, Maria; Perst, Hannah; Kristen, Susanne

2012-03-01

An implicit understanding of false belief indicated by anticipatory looking has been shown to be significantly correlated with performance on explicit false-belief tasks in 3- and 4-year-old children (Low, 2010). Recent evidence from infant research indicates, however, that implicit false-belief understanding guides infants' expectations about goal-directed actions even in the second year of life. The present study presents data from a sample of N= 70 infants who were tested longitudinally at 15, 18, 30, 36 and 48 months with implicit and explicit Theory of Mind measures, as well as an assessment of verbal IQ. Belief-based anticipatory looking in the false-belief task at 18 months significantly predicted verbal false-belief reasoning at 48 months, after controlling for verbal IQ. These findings indicate developmental continuity and conceptual specificity in belief reasoning from infancy to preschool age. They are discussed with respect to competing accounts of infants' understanding of the mind. © 2011 The British Psychological Society.

Statistical modeling, detection, and segmentation of stains in digitized fabric images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gururajan, Arunkumar; Sari-Sarraf, Hamed; Hequet, Eric F.

2007-02-01

This paper will describe a novel and automated system based on a computer vision approach, for objective evaluation of stain release on cotton fabrics. Digitized color images of the stained fabrics are obtained, and the pixel values in the color and intensity planes of these images are probabilistically modeled as a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Stain detection is posed as a decision theoretic problem, where the null hypothesis corresponds to absence of a stain. The null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis mathematically translate into a first order GMM and a second order GMM respectively. The parameters of the GMM are estimated using a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Minimum Description Length (MDL) is then used as the test statistic to decide the verity of the null hypothesis. The stain is then segmented by a decision rule based on the probability map generated by the EM algorithm. The proposed approach was tested on a dataset of 48 fabric images soiled with stains of ketchup, corn oil, mustard, ragu sauce, revlon makeup and grape juice. The decision theoretic part of the algorithm produced a correct detection rate (true positive) of 93% and a false alarm rate of 5% on these set of images.

Real-Life/Real-Time Elderly Fall Detection with a Triaxial Accelerometer

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The consequences of a fall on an elderly person can be reduced if the accident is attended by medical personnel within the first hour. Independent elderly people often stay alone for long periods of time, being in more risk if they suffer a fall. The literature offers several approaches for detecting falls with embedded devices or smartphones using a triaxial accelerometer. Most of these approaches have not been tested with the target population or cannot be feasibly implemented in real-life conditions. In this work, we propose a fall detection methodology based on a non-linear classification feature and a Kalman filter with a periodicity detector to reduce the false positive rate. This methodology requires a sampling rate of only 25 Hz; it does not require large computations or memory and it is robust among devices. We tested our approach with the SisFall dataset achieving 99.4% of accuracy. We then validated it with a new round of simulated activities with young adults and an elderly person. Finally, we give the devices to three elderly persons for full-day validations. They continued with their normal life and the devices behaved as expected. PMID:29621156

Real-Life/Real-Time Elderly Fall Detection with a Triaxial Accelerometer.

PubMed

Sucerquia, Angela; López, José David; Vargas-Bonilla, Jesús Francisco

2018-04-05

The consequences of a fall on an elderly person can be reduced if the accident is attended by medical personnel within the first hour. Independent elderly people often stay alone for long periods of time, being in more risk if they suffer a fall. The literature offers several approaches for detecting falls with embedded devices or smartphones using a triaxial accelerometer. Most of these approaches have not been tested with the target population or cannot be feasibly implemented in real-life conditions. In this work, we propose a fall detection methodology based on a non-linear classification feature and a Kalman filter with a periodicity detector to reduce the false positive rate. This methodology requires a sampling rate of only 25 Hz; it does not require large computations or memory and it is robust among devices. We tested our approach with the SisFall dataset achieving 99.4% of accuracy. We then validated it with a new round of simulated activities with young adults and an elderly person. Finally, we give the devices to three elderly persons for full-day validations. They continued with their normal life and the devices behaved as expected.

Analysis of Visual Interpretation of Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svatonova, H.

2016-06-01

Millions of people of all ages and expertise are using satellite and aerial data as an important input for their work in many different fields. Satellite data are also gradually finding a new place in education, especially in the fields of geography and in environmental issues. The article presents the results of an extensive research in the area of visual interpretation of image data carried out in the years 2013 - 2015 in the Czech Republic. The research was aimed at comparing the success rate of the interpretation of satellite data in relation to a) the substrates (to the selected colourfulness, the type of depicted landscape or special elements in the landscape) and b) to selected characteristics of users (expertise, gender, age). The results of the research showed that (1) false colour images have a slightly higher percentage of successful interpretation than natural colour images, (2) colourfulness of an element expected or rehearsed by the user (regardless of the real natural colour) increases the success rate of identifying the element (3) experts are faster in interpreting visual data than non-experts, with the same degree of accuracy of solving the task, and (4) men and women are equally successful in the interpretation of visual image data.

Decision-Making Regarding Mammography Screening for Older Women.

PubMed

Schonberg, Mara A

2016-12-01

The population is aging, and breast cancer incidence increases with age, peaking between the ages of 75 and 79. However, it is not known whether mammography screening helps women aged 75 and older live longer because they have not been included in randomized controlled trials evaluating mammography screening. Guidelines recommend that older women with less than a 10-year life expectancy not be screened because it takes approximately 10 years before a screen-detected breast cancer may affect an older woman's survival. Guidelines recommend that clinicians discuss the benefits and risks of screening with women aged 75 and older with a life expectancy of 10 years or longer to help them elicit their values and preferences. It is estimated that two of 1,000 women who continue to be screened every other year from age 70 to 79 may avoid breast cancer death, but 12% to 27% of these women will experience a false-positive test, and 10% to 20% of women who experience a false-positive test will undergo a breast biopsy. In addition, approximately 30% of screen-detected cancers would not otherwise have shown up in an older woman's lifetime, yet nearly all older women undergo treatment for these breast cancers, and the risks of treatment increase with age. To inform decision-making, tools are available to estimate life expectancy and to educate older women about the benefits and harms of mammography screening. Guides are also available to help clinicians discuss stopping screening with older women with less than a 10-year life expectancy. Ideally, screening decisions would consider an older woman's life expectancy, breast cancer risk, and her values and preferences. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Are Global and Regional Improvements in Life Expectancy and in Child, Adult and Senior Survival Slowing?

PubMed Central

Hum, Ryan J.; Verguet, Stéphane; Cheng, Yu-Ling; McGahan, Anita M.; Jha, Prabhat

2015-01-01

Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year2; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year2; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year2. Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year2. Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health–primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest. PMID:25992949

Educational Expectations in a Democratic Society Held by Navajo Parents and Their Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parent, Sydney B.; Bunderson, Eileen D.

Navajo students have a 31% dropout rate, and it has been getting worse. Although considerable research has examined the reasons behind this dropout rate, little attention has been given to parental expectations of their children's education. Interviews with 45 parents of students attending Montezuma Creek Elementary School, a public school on the…

Estimating investment returns from growing red pine.

Treesearch

Allen L. Lundgren

1966-01-01

This paper describes how to estimate present values of incomes and costs in growing red pine trees for sale as cordwood or sawtimber, and how to calculate expectation values and rates of return for a wide range of timber-growing conditions, using the tables of expectation value indexes and interest rate multipliers provided. It illustrates how to compare investment...

Economic values for growth and grade changes of sugar maple in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Richard M. Godman; Joseph J. Mendel

1978-01-01

Current and expected rates of value increase over a 10-year period were developed for sawtimber-size sugar maple based on variable growth rates, expected merchantable height changes, and butt log grade improvement. These economic guides, along with silvicultural considerations, provide a value basis for selecting trees during thinning and determining final harvest...

False negative rates in Drosophila cell-based RNAi screens: a case study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background High-throughput screening using RNAi is a powerful gene discovery method but is often complicated by false positive and false negative results. Whereas false positive results associated with RNAi reagents has been a matter of extensive study, the issue of false negatives has received less attention. Results We performed a meta-analysis of several genome-wide, cell-based Drosophila RNAi screens, together with a more focused RNAi screen, and conclude that the rate of false negative results is at least 8%. Further, we demonstrate how knowledge of the cell transcriptome can be used to resolve ambiguous results and how the number of false negative results can be reduced by using multiple, independently-tested RNAi reagents per gene. Conclusions RNAi reagents that target the same gene do not always yield consistent results due to false positives and weak or ineffective reagents. False positive results can be partially minimized by filtering with transcriptome data. RNAi libraries with multiple reagents per gene also reduce false positive and false negative outcomes when inconsistent results are disambiguated carefully. PMID:21251254

Is the French palliative care policy effective everywhere? Geographic variation in changes in inpatient death rates among older patients in France, 2010-2013.

PubMed

Weeks, William B; Ventelou, Bruno; Bendiane, Marc Karim

2016-10-01

Recently, French policymakers have tried to improve care at the end-of-life, by improving access to community-based palliative care, particularly for patients with cancer and neurological diseases. If effective, these efforts should reduce the proportion of such patients who die in the hospital. In light of these policies, we sought to determine the effectiveness of these efforts on reducing inpatient deaths by conducting a retrospective, observational analysis of patients aged 65 and older who were admitted to hospitals in France between 2010 and 2013 for 1 of 3 non-surgical conditions. We calculated department-specific age- and sex-adjusted inpatient death rates for 3 types of nonsurgical admissions and modeled expected number of inpatient deaths had their rates for patients with cancer or neurological disease tracked those of patients with non-cancer non-neurological diseases. We found that patients admitted with a cancer diagnosis experienced 20,394 (13.0%) fewer inpatient deaths that expected had non-surgical cancer diagnosis admission rates tracked those of nonsurgical non-cancer and non-neurological admission rates; patients admitted with a primary neurological disease diagnosis experienced 513 (4.5%) fewer inpatient deaths than expected. During the study period, observed-to-expected inpatient deaths fell more dramatically and consistently for patients admitted with cancer diagnoses than for those admitted with neurological diseases. Observed-to-expected ratios fell least in departments that were on the periphery of the French mainland. Our findings suggest that, in France, efforts to reduce inpatient death rates among patients with cancer or neurological disease diagnoses appear to be effective. However, their effectiveness varies geographically, suggesting that targeted efforts to improve lower performing departments may generate substantial performance improvements.

Screening for subclinical Cushing's syndrome in type 2 diabetes mellitus: low false-positive rates with nocturnal salivary cortisol.

PubMed

Gagliardi, L; Chapman, I M; O'Loughlin, P; Torpy, D J

2010-04-01

The diagnosis of subclinical Cushing's syndrome (SCS) is important, but its relative rarity amongst patients with common metabolic disorders requires a simple test with a low false-positive rate. Using nocturnal salivary cortisol (NSC), which we first validated in patients with suspected and proven Cushing's syndrome, we screened 106 overweight patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, a group at high risk of SCS and nontumoral hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis perturbations. Our hypothesis was that a lower false-positive rate with NSC was likely, compared with that reported with the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) (10-20%), currently the foundation of diagnosis of SCS. No participant had clinically apparent Cushing's syndrome. Three participants had an elevated NSC but further testing excluded SCS. In this study, NSC had a lower false-positive rate (3%) than previously reported for the DST. Given the reported excellent performance of NSC in detection of hypercortisolism, the low false-positive rate in SCS suggests NSC may be superior to the DST for SCS screening. The NSC and DST should be compared directly in metabolic disorder patients; although our data suggest the patient group will need to be substantially larger to definitively determine the optimal screening test. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart New York.

System light-loading technology for mHealth: Manifold-learning-based medical data cleansing and clinical trials in WE-CARE Project.

PubMed

Huang, Anpeng; Xu, Wenyao; Li, Zhinan; Xie, Linzhen; Sarrafzadeh, Majid; Li, Xiaoming; Cong, Jason

2014-09-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major issue to public health. It contributes 41% to the Chinese death rate each year. This huge loss encouraged us to develop a Wearable Efficient teleCARdiology systEm (WE-CARE) for early warning and prevention of CVD risks in real time. WE-CARE is expected to work 24/7 online for mobile health (mHealth) applications. Unfortunately, this purpose is often disrupted in system experiments and clinical trials, even if related enabling technologies work properly. This phenomenon is rooted in the overload issue of complex Electrocardiogram (ECG) data in terms of system integration. In this study, our main objective is to get a system light-loading technology to enable mHealth with a benchmarked ECG anomaly recognition rate. To achieve this objective, we propose an approach to purify clinical features from ECG raw data based on manifold learning, called the Manifold-based ECG-feature Purification algorithm. Our clinical trials verify that our proposal can detect anomalies with a recognition rate of up to 94% which is highly valuable in daily public health-risk alert applications based on clinical criteria. Most importantly, the experiment results demonstrate that the WE-CARE system enabled by our proposal can enhance system reliability by at least two times and reduce false negative rates to 0.76%, and extend the battery life by 40.54%, in the system integration level.

28 CFR 17.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Classification challenges. 17.30 Section... ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED INFORMATION Classified Information § 17.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized... is improperly classified or unclassified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification...

28 CFR 17.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Classification challenges. 17.30 Section... ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED INFORMATION Classified Information § 17.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized... is improperly classified or unclassified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification...

28 CFR 17.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Classification challenges. 17.30 Section... ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED INFORMATION Classified Information § 17.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized... is improperly classified or unclassified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification...

28 CFR 17.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Classification challenges. 17.30 Section... ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED INFORMATION Classified Information § 17.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized... is improperly classified or unclassified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification...

28 CFR 17.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Classification challenges. 17.30 Section... ACCESS TO CLASSIFIED INFORMATION Classified Information § 17.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized... is improperly classified or unclassified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification...

Virtual Reality: Real Promises and False Expectations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Homan, Willem J.

1994-01-01

Examines virtual reality (VR), and discusses the dilemma of defining VR, the limitations of the current technology, and the implications of VR for education. Highlights include a VR experience; human factors and the interface; and altered reality versus VR. (Author/AEF)

Estimating the cost of no-shows and evaluating the effects of mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Berg, Bjorn P; Murr, Michael; Chermak, David; Woodall, Jonathan; Pignone, Michael; Sandler, Robert S; Denton, Brian T

2013-11-01

To measure the cost of nonattendance ("no-shows") and benefit of overbooking and interventions to reduce no-shows for an outpatient endoscopy suite. We used a discrete-event simulation model to determine improved overbooking scheduling policies and examine the effect of no-shows on procedure utilization and expected net gain, defined as the difference in expected revenue based on Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services reimbursement rates and variable costs based on the sum of patient waiting time and provider and staff overtime. No-show rates were estimated from historical attendance (18% on average, with a sensitivity range of 12%-24%). We then evaluated the effectiveness of scheduling additional patients and the effect of no-show reduction interventions on the expected net gain. The base schedule booked 24 patients per day. The daily expected net gain with perfect attendance is $4433.32. The daily loss attributed to the base case no-show rate of 18% is $725.42 (16.4% of net gain), ranging from $472.14 to $1019.29 (10.7%-23.0% of net gain). Implementing no-show interventions reduced net loss by $166.61 to $463.09 (3.8%-10.5% of net gain). The overbooking policy of 9 additional patients per day resulted in no loss in expected net gain when compared with the reference scenario. No-shows can significantly decrease the expected net gain of outpatient procedure centers. Overbooking can help mitigate the impact of no-shows on a suite's expected net gain and has a lower expected cost of implementation to the provider than intervention strategies.

How Likable Are Personality Disorder and General Personality Traits to Those Who Possess Them?

PubMed

Lamkin, Joanna; Maples-Keller, Jessica L; Miller, Joshua D

2018-04-01

The goal of the present study was to investigate whether having higher scores on maladaptive personality traits was related to rating these traits as more likable. Two studies were conducted, one with personality disorder traits (N = 219; M age  = 19.4; 63.8% female; 76.6% Caucasian) and one with general personality traits (N = 198; M age  = 19.5; 69.7% female; 77.3% Caucasian). In each study, participants self-rated their own personality and separately provided ratings of how "likable" they considered those personality traits. As expected, participants rated maladaptive traits more favorably if they considered themselves to possess those traits as well. Also as expected, individuals with higher Antagonism scores (including self-rated Dark Triad constructs of narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism) rated Antagonism and its related facets as "tolerable"-not necessarily likable, but as less unlikable than the average participant. These findings have implications for the ways that individuals with personality pathology perceive the people around them, which may in turn impact their expectations and behaviors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Overdispersion of the Molecular Clock: Temporal Variation of Gene-Specific Substitution Rates in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Hartl, Daniel L.

2008-01-01

Simple models of molecular evolution assume that sequences evolve by a Poisson process in which nucleotide or amino acid substitutions occur as rare independent events. In these models, the expected ratio of the variance to the mean of substitution counts equals 1, and substitution processes with a ratio greater than 1 are called overdispersed. Comparing the genomes of 10 closely related species of Drosophila, we extend earlier evidence for overdispersion in amino acid replacements as well as in four-fold synonymous substitutions. The observed deviation from the Poisson expectation can be described as a linear function of the rate at which substitutions occur on a phylogeny, which implies that deviations from the Poisson expectation arise from gene-specific temporal variation in substitution rates. Amino acid sequences show greater temporal variation in substitution rates than do four-fold synonymous sequences. Our findings provide a general phenomenological framework for understanding overdispersion in the molecular clock. Also, the presence of substantial variation in gene-specific substitution rates has broad implications for work in phylogeny reconstruction and evolutionary rate estimation. PMID:18480070

A critical review of variables affecting the accuracy and false-negative rate of sentinel node biopsy procedures in early breast cancer.

PubMed

Vijayakumar, Vani; Boerner, Philip S; Jani, Ashesh B; Vijayakumar, Srinivasan

2005-05-01

Radionuclide sentinel lymph node localization and biopsy is a staging procedure that is being increasingly used to evaluate patients with invasive breast cancer who have clinically normal axillary nodes. The most important prognostic indicator in patients with invasive breast cancer is the axillary node status, which must also be known for correct staging, and influences the selection of adjuvant therapies. The accuracy of sentinel lymph node localization depends on a number of factors, including the injection method, the operating surgeon's experience and the hospital setting. The efficacy of sentinel lymph node mapping can be determined by two measures: the sentinel lymph node identification rate and the false-negative rate. Of these, the false-negative rate is the most important, based on a review of 92 studies. As sentinel lymph node procedures vary widely, nuclear medicine physicians and radiologists must be acquainted with the advantages and disadvantages of the various techniques. In this review, the factors that influence the success of different techniques are examined, and studies which have investigated false-negative rates and/or sentinel lymph node identification rates are summarized.

What Respondents Really Expect from Researchers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolar, Tomaz; Kolar, Iztok

2008-01-01

This article addresses the issue of falling response rates in telephone surveys. To better understand and maintain respondent goodwill, concepts of psychological contract and respondent expectations are introduced and explored. Results of the qualitative study show that respondent expectations are not only socially contingent but also…

True photographs and false memories.

PubMed

Lindsay, D Stephen; Hagen, Lisa; Read, J Don; Wade, Kimberley A; Garry, Maryanne

2004-03-01

Some trauma-memory-oriented psychotherapists advise clients to review old family photo albums to cue suspected "repressed" memories of childhood sexual abuse. Old photos might cue long-forgotten memories, but when combined with other suggestive influences they might also contribute to false memories. We asked 45 undergraduates to work at remembering three school-related childhood events (two true events provided by parents and one pseudoevent). By random assignment, 23 subjects were also given their school classes' group photos from the years of the to-be-recalled events as memory cues. As predicted, the rate of false-memory reports was dramatically higher in the photo condition than in the no-photo condition. Indeed, the rate of false-memory reports in the photo condition was substantially higher than the rate in any previously published study.

Detecting Adaptation in Protein-Coding Genes Using a Bayesian Site-Heterogeneous Mutation-Selection Codon Substitution Model.

PubMed

Rodrigue, Nicolas; Lartillot, Nicolas

2017-01-01

Codon substitution models have traditionally attempted to uncover signatures of adaptation within protein-coding genes by contrasting the rates of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions. Another modeling approach, known as the mutation-selection framework, attempts to explicitly account for selective patterns at the amino acid level, with some approaches allowing for heterogeneity in these patterns across codon sites. Under such a model, substitutions at a given position occur at the neutral or nearly neutral rate when they are synonymous, or when they correspond to replacements between amino acids of similar fitness; substitutions from high to low (low to high) fitness amino acids have comparatively low (high) rates. Here, we study the use of such a mutation-selection framework as a null model for the detection of adaptation. Following previous works in this direction, we include a deviation parameter that has the effect of capturing the surplus, or deficit, in non-synonymous rates, relative to what would be expected under a mutation-selection modeling framework that includes a Dirichlet process approach to account for across-codon-site variation in amino acid fitness profiles. We use simulations, along with a few real data sets, to study the behavior of the approach, and find it to have good power with a low false-positive rate. Altogether, we emphasize the potential of recent mutation-selection models in the detection of adaptation, calling for further model refinements as well as large-scale applications. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

An investigation of outcome expectancies as a predictor of treatment response for combat veterans with PTSD: comparison of clinician, self-report, and biological measures.

PubMed

Price, Matthew; Maples, Jessica L; Jovanovic, Tanja; Norrholm, Seth D; Heekin, Mary; Rothbaum, Barbara O

2015-06-01

Outcome expectancy, or the degree to which a client believes that therapy will result in improvement, is related to improved treatment outcomes for multiple disorders. There is a paucity of research investigating this relation in regards to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Additionally, the bulk of the research on outcome expectancy and treatment outcomes has relied mostly on self-report outcome measures. The relation between outcome expectancy on self-report measures, clinician-rated measures, and two biological indices (fear-potentiated startle and cortisol reactivity) of PTSD symptoms was explored. The sample included combat veterans (N = 116) treated with virtual reality exposure therapy for PTSD. Results supported a negative association between outcome expectancy and both self-report and clinician-rated symptoms at the conclusion of treatment, but outcome expectancy was related to the magnitude of change during treatment for self-report measures only. Outcome expectancy was unrelated to biological measures of treatment response. These findings suggest that outcome expectancy may be related to patient and clinician perceptions of outcomes, but not biological indices of outcome for PTSD. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Associative learning versus fear habituation as predictors of long-term extinction retention.

PubMed

Brown, Lily A; LeBeau, Richard T; Chat, Ka Yi; Craske, Michelle G

2017-06-01

Violation of unconditioned stimulus (US) expectancy during extinction training may enhance associative learning and result in improved long-term extinction retention compared to within-session habituation. This experiment examines variation in US expectancy (i.e., expectancy violation) as a predictor of long-term extinction retention. It also examines within-session habituation of fear-potentiated startle (electromyography, EMG) and fear of conditioned stimuli (CS) throughout extinction training as predictors of extinction retention. Participants (n = 63) underwent fear conditioning, extinction and retention and provided continuous ratings of US expectancy and EMG, as well as CS fear ratings before and after each phase. Variation in US expectancy throughout extinction and habituation of EMG and fear was entered into a regression as predictors of retention and reinstatement of levels of expectancy and fear. Greater variation in US expectancy throughout extinction training was significantly predictive of enhanced extinction performance measured at retention test, although not after reinstatement test. Slope of EMG and CS fear during extinction did not predict retention of extinction. Within-session habituation of EMG and self-reported fear is not sufficient for long-term retention of extinction learning, and models emphasizing expectation violation may result in enhanced outcomes.

Resolving the theory of planned behaviour's 'expectancy-value muddle' using dimensional salience.

PubMed

Newton, Joshua D; Ewing, Michael T; Burney, Sue; Hay, Margaret

2012-01-01

The theory of planned behaviour is one of the most widely used models of decision-making in the health literature. Unfortunately, the primary method for assessing the theory's belief-based expectancy-value models results in statistically uninterpretable findings, giving rise to what has become known as the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Moreover, existing methods for resolving this muddle are associated with various conceptual or practical limitations. This study addresses these issues by identifying and evaluating a parsimonious method for resolving the expectancy-value muddle. Three hundred and nine Australian residents aged 18-24 years rated the expectancy and value of 18 beliefs about posthumous organ donation. Participants also nominated their five most salient beliefs using a dimensional salience approach. Salient beliefs were perceived as being more likely to eventuate than non-salient beliefs, indicating that salient beliefs could be used to signify the expectancy component. The expectancy-value term was therefore represented by summing the value ratings of salient beliefs, an approach that predicted attitude (adjusted R2 = 0.21) and intention (adjusted R2 = 0.21). These findings suggest that the dimensional salience approach is a useful method for overcoming the expectancy-value muddle in applied research settings.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: S2CLS: multiwavelength counterparts to SMGs (Chen+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.-C.; Smail, I.; Ivison, R. J.; Arumugam, V.; Almaini, O.; Conselice, C. J.; Geach, J. E.; Hartley, W. G.; Ma, C.-J.; Mortlock, A.; Simpson, C.; Simpson, J. M.; Swinbank, A. M.; Aretxaga, I.; Blain, A.; Chapman, S. C.; Dunlop, J. S.; Farrah, D.; Halpern, M.; Michalowski, M. J.; van der Werf, P.; Wilkinson, A.; Zavala, J. A.

2016-05-01

The SCUBA-2 data at 850um in the UDS field were taken as part of the SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey (S2CLS). The full data reduction steps are described fully in J. E. Geach et al. (2016, in preparation). In total we detect 1088 submillimeter sources at >=3.5σ within the region where rms noise is <=1.3mJy/beam. We define a main sample of 716 submillimeter sources that have >=4.0σ, for which we expect a false detection rate of ~1% based on simulations and source extractions on negative signals. We also define a supplementary sample of 372 submillimeter sources that are detected at 3.5-4.0σ and have a false detection rate of ~10%. In this paper, we provide counterpart candidates for both main and supplementary samples; however, the scientific analyses were performed on the main sample. We have carried out ALMA follow-up observations at 870um on 30 of the brighter SCUBA-2 sources in a Cycle 1 project 2012.1.00090.S (Simpson et al. 2015ApJ...807..128S, 2015ApJ...799...81S). The K-band-based multiwavelength photometry adopted in this paper is based on the UDS data release 8 (DR8) of the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS; Lawrence et al. 2007, see II/319). The VLA radio observations at 1.4GHz (20cm) were carried out by the project UDS20 (V. Arumugam et al. 2016, in preparation), which comprises a mosaic of 14 pointings covering a total area of ~1.3deg2 centered on the UDS. The ~1 square degree UDS field contains a rich set of ancillary data (see section 2 for further details). (2 data files).

Finding SDSS Galaxy Clusters in 4-dimensional Color Space Using the False Discovery Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichol, R. C.; Miller, C. J.; Reichart, D.; Wasserman, L.; Genovese, C.; SDSS Collaboration

2000-12-01

We describe a recently developed statistical technique that provides a meaningful cut-off in probability-based decision making. We are concerned with multiple testing, where each test produces a well-defined probability (or p-value). By well-known, we mean that the null hypothesis used to determine the p-value is fully understood and appropriate. The method is entitled False Discovery Rate (FDR) and its largest advantage over other measures is that it allows one to specify a maximal amount of acceptable error. As an example of this tool, we apply FDR to a four-dimensional clustering algorithm using SDSS data. For each galaxy (or test galaxy), we count the number of neighbors that fit within one standard deviation of a four dimensional Gaussian centered on that test galaxy. The mean and standard deviation of that Gaussian are determined from the colors and errors of the test galaxy. We then take that same Gaussian and place it on a random selection of n galaxies and make a similar count. In the limit of large n, we expect the median count around these random galaxies to represent a typical field galaxy. For every test galaxy we determine the probability (or p-value) that it is a field galaxy based on these counts. A low p-value implies that the test galaxy is in a cluster environment. Once we have a p-value for every galaxy, we use FDR to determine at what level we should make our probability cut-off. Once this cut-off is made, we have a final sample of galaxies that are cluster-like galaxies. Using FDR, we also know the maximum amount of field contamination in our cluster galaxy sample. We present our preliminary galaxy clustering results using these methods.

Network Algorithms for Detection of Radiation Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; Brooks, Richard R; Wu, Qishi

In support of national defense, Domestic Nuclear Detection Office s (DNDO) Intelligent Radiation Sensor Systems (IRSS) program supported the development of networks of radiation counters for detecting, localizing and identifying low-level, hazardous radiation sources. Industry teams developed the first generation of such networks with tens of counters, and demonstrated several of their capabilities in indoor and outdoor characterization tests. Subsequently, these test measurements have been used in algorithm replays using various sub-networks of counters. Test measurements combined with algorithm outputs are used to extract Key Measurements and Benchmark (KMB) datasets. We present two selective analyses of these datasets: (a) amore » notional border monitoring scenario that highlights the benefits of a network of counters compared to individual detectors, and (b) new insights into the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) detection method, which lead to its adaptations for improved detection. Using KMB datasets from an outdoor test, we construct a notional border monitoring scenario, wherein twelve 2 *2 NaI detectors are deployed on the periphery of 21*21meter square region. A Cs-137 (175 uCi) source is moved across this region, starting several meters from outside and finally moving away. The measurements from individual counters and the network were processed using replays of a particle filter algorithm developed under IRSS program. The algorithm outputs from KMB datasets clearly illustrate the benefits of combining measurements from all networked counters: the source was detected before it entered the region, during its trajectory inside, and until it moved several meters away. When individual counters are used for detection, the source was detected for much shorter durations, and sometimes was missed in the interior region. The application of SPRT for detecting radiation sources requires choosing the detection threshold, which in turn requires a source strength estimate, typically specified as a multiplier of the background radiation level. A judicious selection of this source multiplier is essential to achieve optimal detection probability at a specified false alarm rate. Typically, this threshold is chosen from the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) by varying the source multiplier estimate. ROC is expected to have a monotonically increasing profile between the detection probability and false alarm rate. We derived ROCs for multiple indoor tests using KMB datasets, which revealed an unexpected loop shape: as the multiplier increases, detection probability and false alarm rate both increase until a limit, and then both contract. Consequently, two detection probabilities correspond to the same false alarm rate, and the higher is achieved at a lower multiplier, which is the desired operating point. Using the Chebyshev s inequality we analytically confirm this shape. Then, we present two improved network-SPRT methods by (a) using the threshold off-set as a weighting factor for the binary decisions from individual detectors in a weighted majority voting fusion rule, and (b) applying a composite SPRT derived using measurements from all counters.« less

Neural network for photoplethysmographic respiratory rate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, Anders

2001-10-01

The photoplethysmographic signal (PPG) includes respiratory components seen as frequency modulation of the heart rate (respiratory sinus arrhythmia, RSA), amplitude modulation of the cardiac pulse, and respiratory induced intensity variations (RIIV) in the PPG baseline. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of these components in determining respiratory rate, and to combine the components in a neural network for improved accuracy. The primary goal is to design a PPG ventilation monitoring system. PPG signals were recorded from 15 healthy subjects. From these signals, the systolic waveform, diastolic waveform, respiratory sinus arrhythmia, pulse amplitude and RIIV were extracted. By using simple algorithms, the rates of false positive and false negative detection of breaths were calculated for each of the five components in a separate analysis. Furthermore, a simple neural network (NN) was tried out in a combined pattern recognition approach. In the separate analysis, the error rates (sum of false positives and false negatives) ranged from 9.7% (pulse amplitude) to 14.5% (systolic waveform). The corresponding value of the NN analysis was 9.5-9.6%.

Person identification in irregular cardiac conditions using electrocardiogram signals.

PubMed

Sidek, Khairul Azami; Khalil, Ibrahim

2011-01-01

This paper presents a person identification mechanism in irregular cardiac conditions using ECG signals. A total of 30 subjects were used in the study from three different public ECG databases containing various abnormal heart conditions from the Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation Predicition Challenge database (AFPDB), MIT-BIH Supraventricular Arrthymia database (SVDB) and T-Wave Alternans Challenge database (TWADB). Cross correlation (CC) was used as the biometric matching algorithm with defined threshold values to evaluate the performance. In order to measure the efficiency of this simple yet effective matching algorithm, two biometric performance metrics were used which are false acceptance rate (FAR) and false reject rate (FRR). Our experimentation results suggest that ECG based biometric identification with irregular cardiac condition gives a higher recognition rate of different ECG signals when tested for three different abnormal cardiac databases yielding false acceptance rate (FAR) of 2%, 3% and 2% and false reject rate (FRR) of 1%, 2% and 0% for AFPDB, SVDB and TWADB respectively. These results also indicate the existence of salient biometric characteristics in the ECG morphology within the QRS complex that tends to differentiate individuals.

Do lions Panthera leo actively select prey or do prey preferences simply reflect chance responses via evolutionary adaptations to optimal foraging?

PubMed

Hayward, Matt W; Hayward, Gina J; Tambling, Craig J; Kerley, Graham I H

2011-01-01

Research on coursing predators has revealed that actions throughout the predatory behavioral sequence (using encounter rate, hunting rate, and kill rate as proxy measures of decisions) drive observed prey preferences. We tested whether similar actions drive the observed prey preferences of a stalking predator, the African lion Panthera leo. We conducted two 96 hour, continuous follows of lions in Addo Elephant National Park seasonally from December 2003 until November 2005 (16 follows), and compared prey encounter rate with prey abundance, hunt rate with prey encounter rate, and kill rate with prey hunt rate for the major prey species in Addo using Jacobs' electivity index. We found that lions encountered preferred prey species far more frequently than expected based on their abundance, and they hunted these species more frequently than expected based on this higher encounter rate. Lions responded variably to non-preferred and avoided prey species throughout the predatory sequence, although they hunted avoided prey far less frequently than expected based on the number of encounters of them. We conclude that actions of lions throughout the predatory behavioural sequence, but particularly early on, drive the prey preferences that have been documented for this species. Once a hunt is initiated, evolutionary adaptations to the predator-prey interactions drive hunting success.

Role of expected reward in frontal eye field during natural scene search

PubMed Central

Lawlor, Patrick N.; Ramkumar, Pavan; Kording, Konrad P.; Segraves, Mark A.

2016-01-01

When a saccade is expected to result in a reward, both neural activity in oculomotor areas and the saccade itself (e.g., its vigor and latency) are altered (compared with when no reward is expected). As such, it is unclear whether the correlations of neural activity with reward indicate a representation of reward beyond a movement representation; the modulated neural activity may simply represent the differences in motor output due to expected reward. Here, to distinguish between these possibilities, we trained monkeys to perform a natural scene search task while we recorded from the frontal eye field (FEF). Indeed, when reward was expected (i.e., saccades to the target), FEF neurons showed enhanced responses. Moreover, when monkeys accidentally made eye movements to the target, firing rates were lower than when they purposively moved to the target. Thus, neurons were modulated by expected reward rather than simply the presence of the target. We then fit a model that simultaneously included components related to expected reward and saccade parameters. While expected reward led to shorter latency and higher velocity saccades, these behavioral changes could not fully explain the increased FEF firing rates. Thus, FEF neurons appear to encode motivational factors such as reward expectation, above and beyond the kinematic and behavioral consequences of imminent reward. PMID:27169506

Real-world practice and Expectation of Asia-Pacific physicians and patients in Helicobacter Pylori eradication (REAP-HP Survey).

PubMed

Chuah, Yoen-Young; Wu, Deng-Chyang; Chuah, Seng-Kee; Yang, Jyh-Chin; Lee, Tzong-Hsi; Yeh, Hong-Zen; Chen, Chan-Lin; Liu, Yu-Hwa; Hsu, Ping-I

2017-06-01

The aims of the study were: 1, to survey the most popular anti-H. pylori regimens in Asia-Pacific region and the real-world effectiveness of these regimens; and 2, to investigate the expectation gaps of eradication rate between physicians and patients. A questionnaire was distributed to Asia-Pacific physicians who attended the Asia-Pacific Digestive Week 2015 meeting. Reported eradication rates from the literatures were compared with real-world rates of surveyed popular regimens within the region. In addition, a questionnaire was distributed to H. pylori-infected patients in three regions of Taiwan. A total of 691 physicians and 539 patients participated in the survey. The top five most commonly used regimens were 7-day clarithromycin-based standard triple therapy (50.4%), 14-day clarithromycin-based standard triple therapy (31.0%), 10-day sequential therapy (6.1%), 14-day bismuth quadruple therapy (3.9%), and 14-day hybrid therapy (3.6%). All countries except for China had a significant gap between the expectation of physicians on anti-H. pylori therapy and the real-world eradication rate of most commonly adopted regimens (all P value <.05). The expectation on minimal eradication rate among patients was higher than that of physicians (91.4% vs 86.5%, P<.001). It is time for physicians in Asia-Pacific countries to adopt newer and more efficacious anti-H. pylori regimens to meet the Kyoto consensus recommendation and their patients' expectations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Utility of Decision Trees in Oncofertility Care in Japan.

PubMed

Ito, Yuki; Shiraishi, Eriko; Kato, Atsuko; Haino, Takayuki; Sugimoto, Kouhei; Okamoto, Aikou; Suzuki, Nao

2017-03-01

To identify the utility and issues associated with the use of decision trees in oncofertility patient care in Japan. A total of 35 women who had been diagnosed with cancer, but had not begun anticancer treatment, were enrolled. We applied the oncofertility decision tree for women published by Gardino et al. to counsel a consecutive series of women on fertility preservation (FP) options following cancer diagnosis. Percentage of women who decided to undergo oocyte retrieval for embryo cryopreservation and the expected live-birth rate for these patients were calculated using the following equation: expected live-birth rate = pregnancy rate at each age per embryo transfer × (1 - miscarriage rate) × No. of cryopreserved embryos. Oocyte retrieval was performed for 17 patients (48.6%; mean ± standard deviation [SD] age, 36.35 ± 3.82 years). The mean ± SD number of cryopreserved embryos was 5.29 ± 4.63. The expected live-birth rate was 0.66. The expected live-birth rate with FP indicated that one in three oncofertility patients would not expect to have a live birth following oocyte retrieval and embryo cryopreservation. While the decision trees were useful as decision-making tools for women contemplating FP, in the context of the current restrictions on oocyte donation and the extremely small number of adoptions in Japan, the remaining options for fertility after cancer are limited. In order for cancer survivors to feel secure in their decisions, the decision tree may need to be adapted simultaneously with improvements to the social environment, such as greater support for adoption.

Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

PubMed Central

Andersen, Ken H.; Brander, Keith

2009-01-01

Commercial fisheries exert high mortalities on the stocks they exploit, and the consequent selection pressure leads to fisheries-induced evolution of growth rate, age and size at maturation, and reproductive output. Productivity and yields may decline as a result, but little is known about the rate at which such changes are likely to occur. Fisheries-induced evolution of exploited populations has recently become a subject of concern for policy makers, fisheries managers, and the general public, with prominent calls for mitigating management action. We make a general evolutionary impact assessment of fisheries by calculating the expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution and the consequent changes in yield. Rates of evolution are expected to be ≈0.1–0.6% per year, and the consequent reductions in fisheries yield are <0.7% per year. These rates are at least a factor of 5 lower than published values based on experiments and analyses of population time series, and we explain why the published rates may be overestimates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgent than reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on their marine ecosystems. PMID:19564596

Global Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates According to the Human Development Index.

PubMed

Khazaei, Salman; Rezaeian, Shahab; Ayubi, Erfan; Gholamaliee, Behzad; Pishkuhi, Mahin Ahmadi; Khazaei, Somayeh; Mansori, Kamyar; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Sani, Mohadeseh; Hanis, Shiva Mansouri

2016-01-01

Prostate cancer (PC) is one of the leading causes of death, especially in developed countries. The human development index (HDI) and its dimensions seem correlated with incidence and mortality rates of PC. This study aimed to assess the association of the specific components of HDI (life expectancy at birth, education, gross national income per 1000 capita, health, and living standards) with burden indicators of PC worldwide. Information of the incidence and mortality rates of PC was obtained from the GLOBOCAN cancer project in year 2012 and data about the HDI 2013 were obtained from the World Bank database. The correlation between incidence, mortality rates, and the HDI parameters were assessed using STATA software. A significant inequality of PC incidence rates was observed according to concentration indexes=0.25 with 95% CI (0.22, 0.34) and a negative mortality concentration index of -0.04 with 95% CI (-0.09, 0.01) was observed. A positive significant correlation was detected between the incidence rates of PC and the HDI and its dimensions including life expectancy at birth, education, income, urbanization level and obesity. However, there was a negative significant correlation between the standardized mortality rates and the life expectancy, income and HDI.

Socio-economic determinants of life expectancy in Nigeria (1980 - 2011).

PubMed

Sede, Peter I; Ohemeng, Williams

2015-01-01

Attainment of 70 years life expectancy by 2020 is one of the millennium development goals in Nigeria. This study examined the socio-economic determinants of life expectancy in Nigeria using data from 1980-2011. Judging from the endogeneity feature of the variables, A VAR and VECM frameworks were employed. Socio-economic features were proxy by secondary school enrolment, government expenditure on health, per capita income, unemployment rate and the Naira foreign exchange rate. It was found that, the conventional socio-economic variables such as per capita income, education and government expenditure on health considered to be highly effective in determining life expectancy of developing countries are not significant in the case of Nigeria. The study however suggests that, life expectancy in Nigeria could be improved if attention is given to quality of government health expenditure, unemployment and measures to halt the depreciation of the Nigerian Naira against major foreign currency.

Stage-related behavioural problems in the 1-4 year old child: parental expectations in a child development unit referral group compared with a control group.

PubMed

Ticehurst, R L; Henry, R L

1989-02-01

Behavioural problems in preschool (1-4 years) children are a common cause of referral to health services. Parents of children presenting to the child development unit with behavioural problems (n = 18) were compared with a control group (n = 45). A questionnaire was utilized to examine the parents' expectations of the children's behaviours. As might be expected, the parents of children presenting to the Unit rated their children as having more difficult behaviours. These parents had unrealistic expectations, particularly for the 'negative' behaviours (disobedience, temper tantrums, defiance and whinging). However, they were able to anticipate normal age-related difficulties in some problem areas (dawdling during mealtimes, masturbating, not sharing toys and being jealous of one's siblings). Counselling should address the issue of matching the expectations of parents with the individual rates of development of their children.

Quantitative assessment of hit detection and confirmation in single and duplicate high-throughput screenings.

PubMed

Wu, Zhijin; Liu, Dongmei; Sui, Yunxia

2008-02-01

The process of identifying active targets (hits) in high-throughput screening (HTS) usually involves 2 steps: first, removing or adjusting for systematic variation in the measurement process so that extreme values represent strong biological activity instead of systematic biases such as plate effect or edge effect and, second, choosing a meaningful cutoff on the calculated statistic to declare positive compounds. Both false-positive and false-negative errors are inevitable in this process. Common control or estimation of error rates is often based on an assumption of normal distribution of the noise. The error rates in hit detection, especially false-negative rates, are hard to verify because in most assays, only compounds selected in primary screening are followed up in confirmation experiments. In this article, the authors take advantage of a quantitative HTS experiment in which all compounds are tested 42 times over a wide range of 14 concentrations so true positives can be found through a dose-response curve. Using the activity status defined by dose curve, the authors analyzed the effect of various data-processing procedures on the sensitivity and specificity of hit detection, the control of error rate, and hit confirmation. A new summary score is proposed and demonstrated to perform well in hit detection and useful in confirmation rate estimation. In general, adjusting for positional effects is beneficial, but a robust test can prevent overadjustment. Error rates estimated based on normal assumption do not agree with actual error rates, for the tails of noise distribution deviate from normal distribution. However, false discovery rate based on empirically estimated null distribution is very close to observed false discovery proportion.

Laying the Groundwork: Have Guided Pathways Come of Age?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boerner, Heather

2016-01-01

Six years ago, Front Range Community College President Andy Dorsey sat down with his team and looked at the college's completion and graduation rates. Like a lot of colleges, they were in for a shock. It is not that they had expected to see 80 percent completion rates. But they certainly were not expecting to see only 43 percent of their students…

Methods for threshold determination in multiplexed assays

DOEpatents

Tammero, Lance F. Bentley; Dzenitis, John M; Hindson, Benjamin J

2014-06-24

Methods for determination of threshold values of signatures comprised in an assay are described. Each signature enables detection of a target. The methods determine a probability density function of negative samples and a corresponding false positive rate curve. A false positive criterion is established and a threshold for that signature is determined as a point at which the false positive rate curve intersects the false positive criterion. A method for quantitative analysis and interpretation of assay results together with a method for determination of a desired limit of detection of a signature in an assay are also described.

48 CFR 1604.7001 - Coordination of benefits clause.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... FEDERAL EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS ACQUISITION REGULATION GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS Coordination of Benefits 1604.7001 Coordination of benefits clause. OPM expects all FEHBP plans to coordinate benefits... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Coordination of benefits...

48 CFR 1604.7001 - Coordination of benefits clause.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... FEDERAL EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS ACQUISITION REGULATION GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS Coordination of Benefits 1604.7001 Coordination of benefits clause. OPM expects all FEHBP plans to coordinate benefits... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Coordination of benefits...

14 CFR 399.36 - Unreasonable discrimination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Unreasonable discrimination. 399.36 Section 399.36 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (AVIATION... the discrimination; and (4) Actual and potential competitive forces cannot reliably be expected to...

14 CFR 399.36 - Unreasonable discrimination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Unreasonable discrimination. 399.36 Section 399.36 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (AVIATION... the discrimination; and (4) Actual and potential competitive forces cannot reliably be expected to...

5 CFR 362.106 - Participant Agreement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Participant Agreement. 362.106 Section... PROGRAMS General Provisions § 362.106 Participant Agreement. Agencies must execute a written Participant Agreement with each Pathways Participant that clearly identifies expectations, including but not limited to...

Subjective health complaints and self-rated health: are expectancies more important than socioeconomic status and workload?

PubMed

Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

2014-06-01

The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative effect of SES (as measured by level of education), physical workload, and response outcome expectancies on subjective health complaints (SHC) and self-rated health, and if response outcome expectancies mediate the effects of education and physical workload on SHC and self-rated health. A survey was carried out among 1,746 Norwegian municipal employees (mean age 44.2, 81 % females). Structural Equation Models with SHC and self-rated health as outcomes were conducted. Education, physical workload, and response outcome expectancies, were the independent 28 variables in the model. Helplessness/hopelessness had a stronger direct effect on self-rated health and SHC than education and physical workload, for both men and women. Helplessness/hopelessness fully mediated the effect of physical workload on SHC for men (0.121), and mediated 30 % of a total effect of 0.247 for women. For women, education had a small but significant indirect effect through helplessness/hopelessness on self-rated health (0.040) and SHC (-0.040), but no direct effects were found. For men, there was no effect of education on SHC, and only a direct effect on self-rated health (0.134). The results indicated that helplessness/hopelessness is more important for SHC and health than well-established measures on SES such as years of education and perceived physical workload in this sample. Helplessness/hopelessness seems to function as a mechanism between physical workload and health.

Nonbleeding adenomas: Evidence of systematic false-negative fecal immunochemical test results and their implications for screening effectiveness-A modeling study.

PubMed

van der Meulen, Miriam P; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Heijningen, Else-Mariëtte B; Kuipers, Ernst J; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2016-06-01

If some adenomas do not bleed over several years, they will cause systematic false-negative fecal immunochemical test (FIT) results. The long-term effectiveness of FIT screening has been estimated without accounting for such systematic false-negativity. There are now data with which to evaluate this issue. The authors developed one microsimulation model (MISCAN [MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis]-Colon) without systematic false-negative FIT results and one model that allowed a percentage of adenomas to be systematically missed in successive FIT screening rounds. Both variants were adjusted to reproduce the first-round findings of the Dutch CORERO FIT screening trial. The authors then compared simulated detection rates in the second screening round with those observed, and adjusted the simulated percentage of systematically missed adenomas to those data. Finally, the authors calculated the impact of systematic false-negative FIT results on the effectiveness of repeated FIT screening. The model without systematic false-negativity simulated higher detection rates in the second screening round than observed. These observed rates could be reproduced when assuming that FIT systematically missed 26% of advanced and 73% of nonadvanced adenomas. To reduce the false-positive rate in the second round to the observed level, the authors also had to assume that 30% of false-positive findings were systematically false-positive. Systematic false-negative FIT testing limits the long-term reduction of biennial FIT screening in the incidence of colorectal cancer (35.6% vs 40.9%) and its mortality (55.2% vs 59.0%) in participants. The results of the current study provide convincing evidence based on the combination of real-life and modeling data that a percentage of adenomas are systematically missed by repeat FIT screening. This impairs the efficacy of FIT screening. Cancer 2016;122:1680-8. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Multicenter Trial of Sentinel Node Biopsy for Breast Cancer Using Both Technetium Sulfur Colloid and Isosulfan Blue Dye

PubMed Central

Tafra, Lorraine; Lannin, Donald R.; Swanson, Melvin S.; Van Eyk, Jason J.; Verbanac, Kathryn M.; Chua, Arlene N.; Ng, Peter C.; Edwards, Maxine S.; Halliday, Bradford E.; Henry, C. Alan; Sommers, Linda M.; Carman, Claire M.; Molin, Melinda R.; Yurko, John E.; Perry, Roger R.; Williams, Robert

2001-01-01

Objective To determine the factors associated with false-negative results on sentinel node biopsy and sentinel node localization (identification rate) in patients with breast cancer enrolled in a multicenter trial using a combination technique of isosulfan blue with technetium sulfur colloid (Tc99). Summary Background Data Sentinel node biopsy is a diagnostic test used to detect breast cancer metastases. To test the reliability of this method, a complete lymph node dissection must be performed to determine the false-negative rate. Single-institution series have reported excellent results, although one multicenter trial reported a false-negative rate as high as 29% using radioisotope alone. A multicenter trial was initiated to test combined use of Tc99 and isosulfan blue. Methods Investigators (both private-practice and academic surgeons) were recruited after attending a course on the technique of sentinel node biopsy. No investigator participated in a learning trial before entering patients. Tc99 and isosulfan blue were injected into the peritumoral region. Results Five hundred twenty-nine patients underwent 535 sentinel node biopsy procedures for an overall identification rate in finding a sentinel node of 87% and a false-negative rate of 13%. The identification rate increased and the false-negative rate decreased to 90% and 4.3%, respectively, after investigators had performed more than 30 cases. Univariate analysis of tumor showed the poorest success rate with older patients and inexperienced surgeons. Multivariate analysis identified both age and experience as independent predictors of failure. However, with older patients, inexperienced surgeons, and patients with five or more metastatic axillary nodes, the false-negative rate was consistently greater. Conclusions This multicenter trial, from both private practice and academic institutions, is an excellent indicator of the general utility of sentinel node biopsy. It establishes the factors that play an important role (patient age, surgical experience, tumor location) and those that are irrelevant (prior surgery, tumor size, Tc99 timing). This widens the applicability of the technique and identifies factors that require further investigation. PMID:11141225

Trustworthy Tricksters: Violating a Negative Social Expectation Affects Source Memory and Person Perception When Fear of Exploitation Is High

PubMed Central

Süssenbach, Philipp; Gollwitzer, Mario; Mieth, Laura; Buchner, Axel; Bell, Raoul

2016-01-01

People who are high in victim-sensitivity—a personality trait characterized by a strong fear of being exploited by others—are more likely to attend to social cues associated with untrustworthiness rather than to cues associated with trustworthiness compared with people who are low in victim-sensitivity. But how do these people react when an initial expectation regarding a target’s trustworthiness turns out to be false? Results from two studies show that victim-sensitive compared with victim-insensitive individuals show enhanced source memory and greater change in person perception for negatively labeled targets that violated rather than confirmed negative expectations (the “trustworthy trickster”). These findings are in line with recent theorizing on schema inconsistency and expectancy violation effects in social cognition and with research on the different facets of justice sensitivity in personality psychology. PMID:28082945

Did I Do That? Expectancy Effects of Brain Stimulation on Error-related Negativity and Sense of Agency.

PubMed

Hoogeveen, Suzanne; Schjoedt, Uffe; van Elk, Michiel

2018-06-19

This study examines the effects of expected transcranial stimulation on the error(-related) negativity (Ne or ERN) and the sense of agency in participants who perform a cognitive control task. Placebo transcranial direct current stimulation was used to elicit expectations of transcranially induced cognitive improvement or impairment. The improvement/impairment manipulation affected both the Ne/ERN and the sense of agency (i.e., whether participants attributed errors to oneself or the brain stimulation device): Expected improvement increased the ERN in response to errors compared with both impairment and control conditions. Expected impairment made participants falsely attribute errors to the transcranial stimulation. This decrease in sense of agency was correlated with a reduced ERN amplitude. These results show that expectations about transcranial stimulation impact users' neural response to self-generated errors and the attribution of responsibility-especially when actions lead to negative outcomes. We discuss our findings in relation to predictive processing theory according to which the effect of prior expectations on the ERN reflects the brain's attempt to generate predictive models of incoming information. By demonstrating that induced expectations about transcranial stimulation can have effects at a neural level, that is, beyond mere demand characteristics, our findings highlight the potential for placebo brain stimulation as a promising tool for research.

Why Nations Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving

PubMed Central

Kinugasa, Tomoko; Mason, Andrew

2007-01-01

We analyze steady state and out-of-steady-state effects of the transition in adult longevity on the national saving rate using historical data and international panel data. The rise in adult life expectancy has a large and statistically significant effect on aggregate saving. The effects have been especially pronounced in East Asia because its mortality transition was very rapid. Gains in life expectancy are much more important than declines in child dependency. Population aging may not lead to lower saving rates in the future if life expectancy and the duration of retirement continue to increase. PMID:18167514

The method of expected number of deaths, 1786-1886-1986.

PubMed

Keiding, N

1987-04-01

"The method of expected number of deaths is an integral part of standardization of vital rates, which is one of the oldest statistical techniques. The expected number of deaths was calculated in 18th century actuarial mathematics...but the method seems to have been forgotten, and was reinvented in connection with 19th century studies of geographical and occupational variations of mortality.... It is noted that standardization of rates is intimately connected to the study of relative mortality, and a short description of very recent developments in the methodology of that area is included." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt

E-commerce Review System to Detect False Reviews.

PubMed

Kolhar, Manjur

2017-08-15

E-commerce sites have been doing profitable business since their induction in high-speed and secured networks. Moreover, they continue to influence consumers through various methods. One of the most effective methods is the e-commerce review rating system, in which consumers provide review ratings for the products used. However, almost all e-commerce review rating systems are unable to provide cumulative review ratings. Furthermore, review ratings are influenced by positive and negative malicious feedback ratings, collectively called false reviews. In this paper, we proposed an e-commerce review system framework developed using the cumulative sum method to detect and remove malicious review ratings.

Generalized site occupancy models allowing for false positive and false negative errors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Link, W.A.

2006-01-01

Site occupancy models have been developed that allow for imperfect species detection or ?false negative? observations. Such models have become widely adopted in surveys of many taxa. The most fundamental assumption underlying these models is that ?false positive? errors are not possible. That is, one cannot detect a species where it does not occur. However, such errors are possible in many sampling situations for a number of reasons, and even low false positive error rates can induce extreme bias in estimates of site occupancy when they are not accounted for. In this paper, we develop a model for site occupancy that allows for both false negative and false positive error rates. This model can be represented as a two-component finite mixture model and can be easily fitted using freely available software. We provide an analysis of avian survey data using the proposed model and present results of a brief simulation study evaluating the performance of the maximum-likelihood estimator and the naive estimator in the presence of false positive errors.

Quit Intentions Moderate Subjective and Physiological Responses to Acute Nicotine Replacement Therapy Administration in Dependent Smokers.

PubMed

Schlagintweit, Hera E; Campbell, Niamh K; Barrett, Sean P

2017-08-01

This study assessed the impact of expectancy and administration components of acute nicotine inhaler use on craving, heart rate, and smoking behavior in smokers with varying intentions to quit. 47 dependent smokers that differed in self-reported intention to quit (no intention to quit during the next month N = 26 vs. intention to initiate a quit attempt within 2 weeks N = 21) were randomly administered a 4 mg nicotine or nicotine-free inhaler across two sessions. Instructions regarding the inhaler's nicotine content (expect nicotine vs. expect nicotine-free; nicotine expectancy) and flavor (mint vs. citrus) varied across sessions. Craving and heart rate were assessed before and after inhaler administration (two-second inhalations every 10 seconds over 20 minutes). Next, participants were offered an opportunity to self-administer puffs of their preferred tobacco brand during an hour-long progressive ratio task. Across participants, nicotine expectancy independently reduced withdrawal related craving (p = .018), but no comparable effects of nicotine administration were evident. In quitting motivated smokers, nicotine expectancy and administration interacted to reduce intention to smoke (p = .040), while nicotine expectancy (p = .047) and administration (p = .025) independently reduced intention to smoke in quitting unmotivated smokers. Blunted heart rate reactivity to nicotine administration was observed in quitting motivated relative to unmotivated smokers (p = .042); however, neither expectancy nor administration impacted smoking behavior in either group (p values > .25). Findings indicate that participant quitting intentions moderate acute nicotine replacement therapy responses. In quitting motivated smokers, a combination of pharmacological and psychological factors may be necessary for nicotine replacement therapy to impact craving. Findings from this study demonstrate that motivations to quit smoking moderate subjective and physiological responses to acute nicotine administration and expectancy in dependent cigarette smokers. Quitting motivated smokers showed blunted heart rate reactivity to nicotine administration, suggesting that they may be less sensitive to the rewarding aspects of nicotine consumption. Nicotine administration and expectancy were found to interact to reduce craving in quitting motivated but not in unmotivated smokers, suggesting that pharmacological and psychological factors may be necessary for nicotine replacement therapy to impact craving in smokers who plan to quit. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Biased lineups: sequential presentation reduces the problem.

PubMed

Lindsay, R C; Lea, J A; Nosworthy, G J; Fulford, J A; Hector, J; LeVan, V; Seabrook, C

1991-12-01

Biased lineups have been shown to increase significantly false, but not correct, identification rates (Lindsay, Wallbridge, & Drennan, 1987; Lindsay & Wells, 1980; Malpass & Devine, 1981). Lindsay and Wells (1985) found that sequential lineup presentation reduced false identification rates, presumably by reducing reliance on relative judgment processes. Five staged-crime experiments were conducted to examine the effect of lineup biases and sequential presentation on eyewitness recognition accuracy. Sequential lineup presentation significantly reduced false identification rates from fair lineups as well as from lineups biased with regard to foil similarity, instructions, or witness attire, and from lineups biased in all of these ways. The results support recommendations that police present lineups sequentially.

Maternal and paternal self-rated health and BMI in relation to lifestyle in early pregnancy: the Salut Programme in Sweden.

PubMed

Eurenius, Eva; Lindkvist, Marie; Sundqvist, Magdalena; Ivarsson, Anneli; Mogren, Ingrid

2011-11-01

This study's aim was to increase knowledge about maternal and paternal self-rated health and body mass index in relation to lifestyle during early pregnancy. Study subjects were expectant parents visiting antenatal care (2006-07) as part of the Salut Programme in northern Sweden. During early pregnancy, 468 females and 413 male partners completed questionnaires. The questions addressed sociodemography, self-rated general health, weight and height, satisfaction with weight, and lifestyle, such as dietary habits, physical activity, sleeping pattern, and alcohol, tobacco, and drug use. Most rated their general health as good, very good, or excellent, although women less often than men (88% and 93%). The sex difference was more prominent when restricting the comparison to self-rated health being very good or excellent--49% of the women compared to 61% of the men. Being overweight or obese was common (53% of the men and 30% of the women). Few participants fulfilled the national recommendations with respect to a health-enhancing lifestyle; this was somewhat more common for women than men. Expectant parents with normal body mass index and vigorous physical activity were more likely to have very good or excellent self-rated health. Most expectant parents perceived their general health as good, although this perception was less for women than men. Being overweight and having a non-health-enhancing lifestyle were more common for men than women. Thus, there is need for more powerful health-promoting interventions for expectant parents.

A probabilistic approach to the assessment of some life history pattern parameters in a Middle Pleistocene human population.

PubMed

Durand, A I; Ipina, S L; Bermúdez de Castro, J M

2000-06-01

Parameters of a Middle Pleistocene human population such as the expected length of the female reproductive period (E(Y)), the expected interbirth interval (E(X)), the survival rate (tau) for females after the expected reproductive period, the rate (phi(2)) of women who, given that they reach first birth, do not survive to the end of the expected reproductive period, and the female infant plus juvenile mortality rate (phi(1)) have been assessed from a probabilistic standpoint provided that such a population were stationary. The hominid sample studied, the Sima de los Huesos (SH) cave site, Sierra de Atapuerca (Spain), is the most exhaustive human fossil sample currently available. Results suggest that the Atapuerca (SH) sample can derive from a stationary population. Further, in the case that the expected reproductive period ends between 37 and 40 yr of age, then 24 less, similarE(Y) less, similar27 yr, E(X)=3 yr, 0.224

Performance of two hearing screening protocols in NICU in Shanghai.

PubMed

Xu, Zheng-Min; Cheng, Wen-Xia; Yang, Xiao-Lin

2011-10-01

To study the sensitivity and specificity of targeted neonatal hearing screening for the single-session distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAE) technique and the combined DPOAE/automated auditory brain-stem response (AABR) technique. 3000 high-risk newborns were studied at Children's Hospital of Fudan University. They were required to take two different screening procedures separately. The first procedure consisted of DPOAE alone and the second consisted of DPOAE combined with the AABR. Based upon the etiology in high-risk babies, they were divided into four groups. In group I there were 670 very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) newborns (1340 ears), and in group II there were 890 preterm babies (1780 ears). 850 babies (1700 ears) suffered from hyperbilirubinemia in group III, whereas 790 babies (1580 ears) with asphyxia were in group IV. The babies in groups II, III, and IV came from the neonatal intensive-care unit (NICU) of our hospital. The study protocols consisted of the DPOAE alone and DPOAE combined with AABR hearing screening at an age of less than 1 month, and a diagnostic stage at the age of 2 months. With single-session DPOAE screening, the referral rate (8% of the NICU babies), the false-positive rate (4.96%) and the false-negative rate (0.8%) were higher. The different etiologies in NICU babies had significantly different referral rates (F-test, p<0.01). A 4.46% referral rate of hyperbilirubinemi babies was much lower. The combined DPOAE/AABR screening technique revealed a referral rate of 5.03%, a false-positive rate of 2% and a false-negative rate of 0.06%. The false-positive rate was well below the suggested 3% of the American Academy of Pediatric. Comparisons of the referral rate, false-positive rate and false-negative rate of two hearing screening protocols (DPOAE alone and combined DPOAE/AABR) revealed significant differences (t-test, p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.01). 91 infants (3.03% of the NICU babies) who failed the combined DPOAE/AABR screening were confirmed on hearing impairment. Of 22 babies who passed DPOAE screening but failed the AABR screening had a severe to profound hearing loss based on classic ABR. These patients (24% of the NICU babies with hearing losses) with hyperbilirubinemia and asphyxia problems at newborn stage were diagnosed as auditory neuropathy based on evaluations of DPOAE screening passed, abnormal ABR and absent middle-ear muscle reflexes (MMR). Our study demonstrates the use of a combination of DPOAE and AABR testing ensures high sensitivity and acceptable specificity, and predict the AN profile in NICU babies. Our efforts identified 22 NICU babies with auditory neuropathy who hopefully will benefit from early remediation of their hearing deficit. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved target detection by IR dual-band image fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adomeit, U.; Ebert, R.

2009-09-01

Dual-band thermal imagers acquire information simultaneously in both the 8-12 μm (long-wave infrared, LWIR) and the 3-5 μm (mid-wave infrared, MWIR) spectral range. Compared to single-band thermal imagers they are expected to have several advantages in military applications. These advantages include the opportunity to use the best band for given atmospheric conditions (e. g. cold climate: LWIR, hot and humid climate: MWIR), the potential to better detect camouflaged targets and an improved discrimination between targets and decoys. Most of these advantages have not yet been verified and/or quantified. It is expected that image fusion allows better exploitation of the information content available with dual-band imagers especially with respect to detection of targets. We have developed a method for dual-band image fusion based on the apparent temperature differences in the two bands. This method showed promising results in laboratory tests. In order to evaluate its performance under operational conditions we conducted a field trial in an area with high thermal clutter. In such areas, targets are hardly to detect in single-band images because they vanish in the clutter structure. The image data collected in this field trial was used for a perception experiment. This perception experiment showed an enhanced target detection range and reduced false alarm rate for the fused images compared to the single-band images.

Post—September 11, 2001, Incidence of Systemic Autoimmune Diseases in World Trade Center—Exposed Firefighters and Emergency Medical Service Workers

PubMed Central

Webber, Mayris P.; Moir, William; Crowson, Cynthia S.; Cohen, Hillel W.; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Hall, Charles B.; Berman, Jessica; Qayyum, Basit; Jaber, Nadia; Matteson, Eric L.; Liu, Yang; Kelly, Kerry; Prezant, David J.

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate the incidence of selected systemic autoimmune diseases (SAIDs) in approximately 14,000 male rescue/recovery workers enrolled in the Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY) World Trade Center (WTC) Health Program and to compare FDNY incidence to rates from demographically similar men in the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), a population-based database in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients and Methods We calculated incidence for specific SAIDs (rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and others) and combined SAIDs diagnosed from September 12, 2001, through September 11, 2014, and generated expected sex- and age-specific rates based on REP rates. Rates were stratified by level of WTC exposure (higher vs lower). Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), which are the ratios of the observed number of cases in the FDNY group to the expected number of cases based on REP rates, and 95% CIs were calculated. Results We identified 97 SAID cases. Overall, FDNY rates were not significantly different from expected rates (SIR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.77–1.21). However, the lower WTC exposure group had 9.9 fewer cases than expected, whereas the higher WTC exposure group had 7.7 excess cases. Conclusion Most studies indicate that the healthy worker effect reduces the association between exposure and outcome by about 20%, which we observed in the lower WTC exposure group. Overall rates masked differences in incidence by level of WTC exposure, especially because the higher WTC exposure group was relatively small. Continued surveillance for early detection of SAIDs in high WTC exposure populations is required to identify and treat exposure-related adverse effects. PMID:26682920

Post-September 11, 2001, Incidence of Systemic Autoimmune Diseases in World Trade Center-Exposed Firefighters and Emergency Medical Service Workers.

PubMed

Webber, Mayris P; Moir, William; Crowson, Cynthia S; Cohen, Hillel W; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Hall, Charles B; Berman, Jessica; Qayyum, Basit; Jaber, Nadia; Matteson, Eric L; Liu, Yang; Kelly, Kerry; Prezant, David J

2016-01-01

To estimate the incidence of selected systemic autoimmune diseases (SAIDs) in approximately 14,000 male rescue/recovery workers enrolled in the Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY) World Trade Center (WTC) Health Program and to compare FDNY incidence to rates from demographically similar men in the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), a population-based database in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We calculated incidence for specific SAIDs (rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and others) and combined SAIDs diagnosed from September 12, 2001, through September 11, 2014, and generated expected sex- and age-specific rates based on REP rates. Rates were stratified by level of WTC exposure (higher vs lower). Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), which are the ratios of the observed number of cases in the FDNY group to the expected number of cases based on REP rates, and 95% CIs were calculated. We identified 97 SAID cases. Overall, FDNY rates were not significantly different from expected rates (SIR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.77-1.21). However, the lower WTC exposure group had 9.9 fewer cases than expected, whereas the higher WTC exposure group had 7.7 excess cases. Most studies indicate that the healthy worker effect reduces the association between exposure and outcome by about 20%, which we observed in the lower WTC exposure group. Overall rates masked differences in incidence by level of WTC exposure, especially because the higher WTC exposure group was relatively small. Continued surveillance for early detection of SAIDs in high WTC exposure populations is required to identify and treat exposure-related adverse effects. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Development of Technologies for Early Detection and Stratification of Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

at the time of screening, and has an 8-10% false positive rate.3 These drawbacks lead to inaccurate patient diagnosis, which can allow potentially...95% recovery efficiency. Furthermore, using whole blood from healthy donors, we determined we have a zero false positive rate; that is, we have not...detected a single false positive event out of the dozen samples we ran. The technology we developed here is not only useful for the isolation of CTCs

Evaluation of microtiter-plate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the analysis of triazine and chloroacetanilide herbicides in rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pomes, M.L.; Thurman, E.M.; Aga, D.S.; Goolsby, D.A.

1998-01-01

Triazine and chloroacetanilide concentrations in rainfall samples collected from a 23-state region of the United States were analyzed with microtiter-plate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Thirty-six percent of rainfall samples (2072 out of 5691) were confirmed using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) to evaluate the operating performance of ELISA as a screening test. Comparison of ELISA to GC/MS results showed that the two ELISA methods accurately reported GC/MS results (m = 1), but with more variability evident with the triazine than with the chloroacetanilide ELISA. Bayes's rule, a standardized method to report the results of screening tests, indicated that the two ELISA methods yielded comparable predictive values (80%), but the triazine ELISA yielded a false- positive rate of 11.8% and the chloroacetanilide ELISA yielded a false- negative rate of 23.1%. The false-positive rate for the triazine ELISA may arise from cross reactivity with an unknown triazine or metabolite. The false-negative rate of the chloroacetanilide ELISA probably resulted from a combination of low sensitivity at the reporting limit of 0.15 ??g/L and a distribution characterized by 75% of the samples at or below the reporting limit of 0.15 ??g/L.Triazine and chloroacetanilide concentrations in rainfall samples collected from a 23-state region of the United States were analyzed with microtiter-plate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Thirty-six percent of rainfall samples (2072 out of 5691) were confirmed using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) to evaluate the operating performance of ELISA as a screening test. Comparison of ELISA to GC/MS results showed that the two ELISA methods accurately reported GC/MS results (m = 1), but with more variability evident with the triazine than with the chloroacetanilide ELISA. Bayes's rule, a standardized method to report the results of screening tests, indicated that the two ELISA methods yielded comparable predictive values (80%), but the triazine ELISA yielded a false-positive rate of 11.8% and the chloroacetanilide ELISA yielded a false-negative rate of 23.1%. The false-positive rate for the triazine ELISA may arise from cross reactivity with an unknown triazine or metabolite. The false-negative rate of the chloroacetanilide ELISA probably resulted from a combination of low sensitivity at the reporting limit of 0.15 ??g/L and a distribution characterized by 75% of the samples at or below the reporting limit of 0.15 ??g/L.

A critical reappraisal of false negative sentinel lymph node biopsy in melanoma.

PubMed

Manca, G; Romanini, A; Rubello, D; Mazzarri, S; Boni, G; Chiacchio, S; Tredici, M; Duce, V; Tardelli, E; Volterrani, D; Mariani, G

2014-06-01

Lymphatic mapping and sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) have completely changed the clinical management of cutaneous melanoma. This procedure has been accepted worldwide as a recognized method for nodal staging. SLNB is able to accurately determine nodal basin status, providing the most useful prognostic information. However, SLNB is not a perfect diagnostic test. Several large-scale studies have reported a relatively high false-negative rate (5.6-21%), correctly defined as the proportion of false-negative results with respect to the total number of "actual" positive lymph nodes. The main purpose of this review is to address the technical issues that nuclear physicians, surgeons, and pathologists should carefully consider to improve the accuracy of SLNB by minimizing its false-negative rate. In particular, SPECT/CT imaging has demonstrated to be able to identify a greater number of sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) than those found by planar lymphoscintigraphy. Furthermore, a unique definition in the international guidelines is missing for the operational identification of SLNs, which may be partly responsible for this relatively high false-negative rate of SLNB. Therefore, it is recommended for the scientific community to agree on the radioactive counting rate threshold so that the surgeon can be better radioguided to detect all the lymph nodes which are most likely to harbor metastases. Another possible source of error may be linked to the examination of the harvested SLNs by conventional histopathological methods. A more careful and extensive SLN analysis (e.g. molecular analysis by RT-PCR) is able to find more positive nodes, so that the false-negative rate is reduced. Older age at diagnosis, deeper lesions, histologic ulceration, head-neck anatomical location of primary lesions are the clinical factors associated with false-negative SLNBs in melanoma patients. There is still much controversy about the clinical significance of a false-negative SLNB on the prognosis of melanoma patients. Indeed, most studies have failed to show that there is worse melanoma-specific survival for false-negative compared to true-positive SLNB patients.

Responses to false physiological feedback in individuals with panic attacks and elevated anxiety sensitivity.

PubMed

Story, Tyler J; Craske, Michelle G

2008-09-01

Participants with elevated anxiety sensitivity and a history of panic attacks were compared to a low anxiety comparison group with respect to physiological and subjective reactivity to false heart-rate feedback and reactivity to a priming procedure. Whereas accurate heart-rate feedback elicited minimal responses, participants across groups showed significant physiological and subjective responses to false feedback. High risk and low risk participants did not differ in heart-rate responses to false feedback, though panic attack frequency did predict physiological and subjective reactions to false feedback in the high risk group. Self-reported nonspecific anxiety was significantly higher in high risk female participants than in low risk female participants, while males did not different in general subjective anxiety. However, high risk participants reported more panic-specific symptoms during the false feedback task than low risk participants, regardless of the sex of the participant. Therefore, although the experimental paradigm appeared to trigger nonspecific anxiety in high risk female participants, panic attack symptoms in reaction to the task were specific to risk group, not sex, and consistent with hypotheses. Surprisingly, the priming procedure did not influence physiological or subjective responses to false feedback in either group. These results raise additional questions regarding the process and impact of interception in individuals with panic attacks, and suggest that false perception of internal changes may contribute to risk for panic disorder when exposed to believable cues.

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kehrer, Kristen; Graf, Brian G.; Roeder, William

2005-01-01

Using meteorology data, focusing on precipitable water (PW), obtained during the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons in Central Florida, this paper will, one, assess the skill and accuracy measurements of the current Mazany forecasting tool and, two, provide additional forecasting tools that can be used in predicting lightning. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are located in east Central Florida. KSC and CCAFS process and launch manned (NASA Space Shuttle) and unmanned (NASA and Air Force Expendable Launch Vehicles) space vehicles. One of the biggest cost impacts is unplanned launch scrubs due to inclement weather conditions such as thunderstorms. Each launch delay/scrub costs over a quarter million dollars, and the need to land the Shuttle at another landing site and return to KSC costs approximately $ 1M. Given the amount of time lost and costs incurred, the ability to accurately forecast (predict) when lightning will occur can result in significant cost and time savings. All lightning prediction models were developed using binary logistic regression. Lightning is the dependent variable and is binary. The independent variables are the Precipitable Water (PW) value for a given time of the day, the change in PW up to 12 hours, the electric field mill value, and the K-index value. In comparing the Mazany model results for the 1999 period B against actual observations for the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons, differences were found in the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Probability of Detection (POD) and Hit Rate (H). On average, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) increased by 58%, the Probability of Detection (POD) decreased by 31% and the Hit Rate decreased by 20%. In comparing the performance of the 6 hour forecast period to the performance of the 1.5 hour forecast period for the Mazany model, the FAR was lower by 15% and the Hit Rate was higher by 7%. However, the POD for the 6 hour forecast period was lower by 16% as compared to the POD of the 1.5 hour forecast period. Neither forecast period performed at the accuracy measures expected. A 2-Hr Forecasting Tool was developed to support a Phase I Lightning Advisory, which requires a 30-minute lead time for predicting lightning.

Conscious and unconscious discriminations between true and false memories.

PubMed

Jou, Jerwen

2011-09-01

When subjects give higher confidence or memory ratings to a test word in a recognition test, do they simply raise their criterion without making better discrimination, or do they raise both criterion and true discrimination between the studied words (SW) and the lures? Given that previous studies found subjects' false alarm responses to lures slower than to SW, and recognition latency inversely correlated with the confidence rating, can the latency difference between the lures and SW be accounted for by confidence or memory ratings? The present results showed that when subjects gave higher confidence or memory ratings, both their bias and sensitivity were raised, indicating that they could consciously distinguish the lures from the SW. However, a latency difference between true and false recognitions persisted after confidence and memory ratings were held constant, suggesting an unconscious source of discrimination between the two types of memory. Published by Elsevier Inc.

6 CFR 7.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Classification challenges. 7.30 Section 7.30... INFORMATION Classified Information § 7.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized holders of information... classified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification status of that information pursuant to...

6 CFR 7.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Classification challenges. 7.30 Section 7.30... INFORMATION Classified Information § 7.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized holders of information... classified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification status of that information pursuant to...

22 CFR 9.8 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Classification challenges. 9.8 Section 9.8 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE GENERAL SECURITY INFORMATION REGULATIONS § 9.8 Classification... classification status is improper are expected and encouraged to challenge the classification status of the...

6 CFR 7.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Classification challenges. 7.30 Section 7.30... INFORMATION Classified Information § 7.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized holders of information... classified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification status of that information pursuant to...

22 CFR 9.8 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Classification challenges. 9.8 Section 9.8 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE GENERAL SECURITY INFORMATION REGULATIONS § 9.8 Classification... classification status is improper are expected and encouraged to challenge the classification status of the...

22 CFR 9.8 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Classification challenges. 9.8 Section 9.8 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE GENERAL SECURITY INFORMATION REGULATIONS § 9.8 Classification... classification status is improper are expected and encouraged to challenge the classification status of the...

42 CFR 93.316 - Completing the research misconduct process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Completing the research misconduct process. 93.316... POLICIES ON RESEARCH MISCONDUCT Responsibilities of Institutions The Institutional Investigation § 93.316 Completing the research misconduct process. (a) ORI expects institutions to carry inquiries and...

42 CFR 93.316 - Completing the research misconduct process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Completing the research misconduct process. 93.316... POLICIES ON RESEARCH MISCONDUCT Responsibilities of Institutions The Institutional Investigation § 93.316 Completing the research misconduct process. (a) ORI expects institutions to carry inquiries and...

42 CFR 93.316 - Completing the research misconduct process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Completing the research misconduct process. 93.316... POLICIES ON RESEARCH MISCONDUCT Responsibilities of Institutions The Institutional Investigation § 93.316 Completing the research misconduct process. (a) ORI expects institutions to carry inquiries and...

42 CFR 93.316 - Completing the research misconduct process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Completing the research misconduct process. 93.316... POLICIES ON RESEARCH MISCONDUCT Responsibilities of Institutions The Institutional Investigation § 93.316 Completing the research misconduct process. (a) ORI expects institutions to carry inquiries and...

42 CFR 93.316 - Completing the research misconduct process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Completing the research misconduct process. 93.316... POLICIES ON RESEARCH MISCONDUCT Responsibilities of Institutions The Institutional Investigation § 93.316 Completing the research misconduct process. (a) ORI expects institutions to carry inquiries and...

20 CFR 405.332 - Subpoenas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Subpoenas. 405.332 Section 405.332 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR ADJUDICATING INITIAL DISABILITY... them; (3) State the important facts that the witness or document is expected to show; and (4) Indicate...

24 CFR 203.501 - Loss mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Loss mitigation. 203.501 Section... FAMILY MORTGAGE INSURANCE Servicing Responsibilities General Requirements § 203.501 Loss mitigation... appropriate actions which can reasonably be expected to generate the smallest financial loss to the Department...

22 CFR 9.8 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Classification challenges. 9.8 Section 9.8 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE GENERAL SECURITY INFORMATION REGULATIONS § 9.8 Classification... classification status is improper are expected and encouraged to challenge the classification status of the...

6 CFR 7.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Classification challenges. 7.30 Section 7.30... INFORMATION Classified Information § 7.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized holders of information... classified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification status of that information pursuant to...

22 CFR 9.8 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Classification challenges. 9.8 Section 9.8 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE GENERAL SECURITY INFORMATION REGULATIONS § 9.8 Classification... classification status is improper are expected and encouraged to challenge the classification status of the...

6 CFR 7.30 - Classification challenges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Classification challenges. 7.30 Section 7.30... INFORMATION Classified Information § 7.30 Classification challenges. (a) Authorized holders of information... classified are encouraged and expected to challenge the classification status of that information pursuant to...

14 CFR 23.1311 - Electronic display instrument systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Electronic display instrument systems. 23... Equipment Instruments: Installation § 23.1311 Electronic display instrument systems. (a) Electronic display..., considering the expected electronic display brightness level at the end of an electronic display indictor's...

14 CFR 23.1311 - Electronic display instrument systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Electronic display instrument systems. 23... Equipment Instruments: Installation § 23.1311 Electronic display instrument systems. (a) Electronic display..., considering the expected electronic display brightness level at the end of an electronic display indictor's...

14 CFR 23.1311 - Electronic display instrument systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Electronic display instrument systems. 23... Equipment Instruments: Installation § 23.1311 Electronic display instrument systems. (a) Electronic display..., considering the expected electronic display brightness level at the end of an electronic display indictor's...

46 CFR 169.567 - Portable extinguishers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Portable extinguishers. 169.567 Section 169.567 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS... freezing must not be located where freezing temperatures may be expected. (g) Each vessel must carry spare...

32 CFR 310.53 - Computer matching agreements (CMAs).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Computer matching agreements (CMAs). 310.53... (CONTINUED) PRIVACY PROGRAM DOD PRIVACY PROGRAM Computer Matching Program Procedures § 310.53 Computer.... (3) Justification and expected results. Explain why computer matching as opposed to some other...

32 CFR 310.53 - Computer matching agreements (CMAs).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Computer matching agreements (CMAs). 310.53... (CONTINUED) PRIVACY PROGRAM DOD PRIVACY PROGRAM Computer Matching Program Procedures § 310.53 Computer.... (3) Justification and expected results. Explain why computer matching as opposed to some other...

32 CFR 310.53 - Computer matching agreements (CMAs).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Computer matching agreements (CMAs). 310.53... (CONTINUED) PRIVACY PROGRAM DOD PRIVACY PROGRAM Computer Matching Program Procedures § 310.53 Computer.... (3) Justification and expected results. Explain why computer matching as opposed to some other...

32 CFR 310.53 - Computer matching agreements (CMAs).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Computer matching agreements (CMAs). 310.53... (CONTINUED) PRIVACY PROGRAM DOD PRIVACY PROGRAM Computer Matching Program Procedures § 310.53 Computer.... (3) Justification and expected results. Explain why computer matching as opposed to some other...

32 CFR 310.53 - Computer matching agreements (CMAs).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Computer matching agreements (CMAs). 310.53... (CONTINUED) PRIVACY PROGRAM DOD PRIVACY PROGRAM Computer Matching Program Procedures § 310.53 Computer.... (3) Justification and expected results. Explain why computer matching as opposed to some other...

20 CFR 655.154 - Additional positive recruitment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Additional positive recruitment. 655.154... recruitment. (a) Where to conduct additional positive recruitment. The employer must conduct positive recruitment within a multistate region of traditional or expected labor supply where the CO finds that there...

The role of decision criterion in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false recognition memory: False memory falls and rises as a function of restriction on criterion setting.

PubMed

Jou, Jerwen; Escamilla, Eric E; Arredondo, Mario L; Pena, Liann; Zuniga, Richard; Perez, Martin; Garcia, Clarissa

2018-02-01

How much of the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false memory is attributable to decision criterion is so far a controversial issue. Previous studies typically used explicit warnings against accepting the critical lure to investigate this issue. The assumption is that if the false memory results from using a liberally biased criterion, it should be greatly reduced or eliminated by an explicit warning against accepting the critical lure. Results showed that warning was generally ineffective. We asked the question of whether subjects can substantially reduce false recognition without being warned when the test forces them to make a distinction between true and false memories. Using a two-alternative forced choice in which criterion plays a relatively smaller role, we showed that subjects could indeed greatly reduce the rate of false recognition. However, when the forced-choice restriction was removed from the two-item choice test, the rate of false recognition rebounded to that of the hit for studied list words, indicating the role of criterion in false recognition.

Analysis of false results in a series of 835 fine needle aspirates of breast lesions.

PubMed

Willis, S L; Ramzy, I

1995-01-01

To analyze cases of false diagnoses from a large series to help increase the accuracy of fine needle aspiration of palpable breast lesions. The results of FNA of 835 palpable breast lesions were analyzed to determine the reasons for false positive, false negative and false suspicious diagnoses. Of the 835 aspirates, 174 were reported as positive, 549 as negative and 66 as suspicious or atypical but not diagnostic of malignancy. Forty-six cases were considered unsatisfactory. Tissue was available for comparison in 286 cases. The cytologic diagnoses in these cases were reported as follows: positive, 125 (43.7%); suspicious, 33 (11.5%); atypical, 18 (6.2%); negative, 92 (32%); and unsatisfactory, 18 (6.2%). There was one false positive diagnosis, yielding a false positive rate of 0.8%. This lesion was a case of fibrocystic change with hyperplasia, focal fat necrosis and reparative atypia. There were 14 false negative cases, resulting in a false negative rate of 13.2%. Nearly all these cases were sampling errors and included infiltrating ductal carcinomas (9), ductal carcinomas in situ (2), infiltrating lobular carcinomas (2) and tubular carcinoma (1). Most of the suspicious and atypical lesions proved to be carcinomas (35/50). The remainder were fibroadenomas (6), fibrocystic change (4), gynecomastia (2), adenosis (2) and granulomatous mastitis (1). A positive diagnosis of malignancy by FNA is reliable in establishing the diagnosis and planning the treatment of breast cancer. The false-positive rate is very low, with only a single case reported in 835 aspirates. Most false negatives are due to sampling and not to interpretive difficulties. The category "suspicious but not diagnostic of malignancy" serves a useful purpose in management of patients with breast lumps.

High resolution melting analysis for epidermal growth factor receptor mutations in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue and plasma free DNA from non-small cell lung cancer patients.

PubMed

Jing, Chang-Wen; Wang, Zhuo; Cao, Hai-Xia; Ma, Rong; Wu, Jian-Zhong

2014-01-01

The aim of the research was to explore a cost effective, fast, easy to perform, and sensitive method for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation testing. High resolution melting analysis (HRM) was introduced to evaluate the efficacy of the analysis for dectecting EGFR mutations in exons 18 to 21 using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues and plasma free DNA from 120 patients. The total EGFR mutation rate was 37.5% (45/120) detected by direct sequencing. There were 48 mutations in 120 FFPE tissues assessed by HRM. For plasma free DNA, the EGFR mutation rate was 25.8% (31/120). The sensitivity of HRM assays in FFPE samples was 100% by HRM. There was a low false-positive mutation rate but a high false-negative rate in plasma free DNA detected by HRM. Our results show that HRM analysis has the advantage of small tumor sample need. HRM applied with plasma free DNA showed a high false-negative rate but a low false-positive rate. Further research into appropriate methods and analysis needs to be performed before HRM for plasma free DNA could be accepted as an option in diagnostic or screening settings.

False belief understanding in Cantonese-speaking children.

PubMed

Tardif, Twila; Wellman, Henry M; Cheung, Kar Man

2004-11-01

The present study investigates the performance of 96 Cantonese-speaking three- to five-year-old preschoolers on three false belief tasks - a deceptive object, a change of location, and an unexpected contents task encompassing a variety of task factors. Most importantly, the research examines the possibility that false belief performance depends on specific linguistic factors such as the type of verb used in the test question--an explicitly false vs. a neutral belief verb. Cantonese was chosen as particularly useful for examining this question because it explicitly codes belief status as either neutral (nam5) or false (ji5wai4), and because it offers additional linguistic and cultural contrasts to research conducted on false belief with children learning English and other Indo-European languages. As expected, a strong age effect was found, as well as a significant advantage for children who received the explicit false belief (ji5wai4) wording and for those who were asked to explain rather than predict the protagonist's actions. Interestingly, there was also a strong task difference with children performing better on the deceptive object task than on the other two false belief tasks. We argue that these results point both to universal trajectories in theory of mind development and to interesting, but localized, effects of language and culture on children's false belief understanding.

Effects of expected-value information and display format on recognition of aircraft subsystem abnormalities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, Michael T.; Abbott, Kathy H.

1994-01-01

This study identifies improved methods to present system parameter information for detecting abnormal conditions and to identify system status. Two workstation experiments were conducted. The first experiment determined if including expected-value-range information in traditional parameter display formats affected subject performance. The second experiment determined if using a nontraditional parameter display format, which presented relative deviation from expected value, was better than traditional formats with expected-value ranges included. The inclusion of expected-value-range information onto traditional parameter formats was found to have essentially no effect. However, subjective results indicated support for including this information. The nontraditional column deviation parameter display format resulted in significantly fewer errors compared with traditional formats with expected-value-ranges included. In addition, error rates for the column deviation parameter display format remained stable as the scenario complexity increased, whereas error rates for the traditional parameter display formats with expected-value ranges increased. Subjective results also indicated that the subjects preferred this new format and thought that their performance was better with it. The column deviation parameter display format is recommended for display applications that require rapid recognition of out-of-tolerance conditions, especially for a large number of parameters.

Geographical variation in life expectancy at birth in England and Wales is largely explained by deprivation.

PubMed

Woods, Laura M; Rachet, Bernard; Riga, Michael; Stone, Noell; Shah, Anjali; Coleman, Michel P

2005-02-01

To describe the population mortality profile of England and Wales by deprivation and in each government office region (GOR) during 1998, and to quantify the influence of geography and deprivation in determining life expectancy. Construction of life tables describing age specific mortality rates and life expectancy at birth from death registrations and estimated population counts. Life tables were created for (a) quintiles of income deprivation based on the income domain score of the index of multiple deprivation 2000, (b) each GOR and Wales, and (c) every combination of deprivation and geography. England and Wales.PATIENTS/ PARTICIPANTS: Residents of England and Wales, 1998. Life expectancy at birth varies with deprivation quintile and is highest in the most affluent groups. The differences are mainly attributable to differences in mortality rates under 75 years of age. Regional life expectancies display a clear north-south gradient. Linear regression analysis shows that deprivation explains most of the geographical variation in life expectancy. Geographical patterns of life expectancy identified within these data for England and Wales in 1998 are mainly attributable to variations in deprivation status as defined by the IMD 2000 income domain score.

Do Lions Panthera leo Actively Select Prey or Do Prey Preferences Simply Reflect Chance Responses via Evolutionary Adaptations to Optimal Foraging?

PubMed Central

Hayward, Matt W.; Hayward, Gina J.; Tambling, Craig J.; Kerley, Graham I. H.

2011-01-01

Research on coursing predators has revealed that actions throughout the predatory behavioral sequence (using encounter rate, hunting rate, and kill rate as proxy measures of decisions) drive observed prey preferences. We tested whether similar actions drive the observed prey preferences of a stalking predator, the African lion Panthera leo. We conducted two 96 hour, continuous follows of lions in Addo Elephant National Park seasonally from December 2003 until November 2005 (16 follows), and compared prey encounter rate with prey abundance, hunt rate with prey encounter rate, and kill rate with prey hunt rate for the major prey species in Addo using Jacobs' electivity index. We found that lions encountered preferred prey species far more frequently than expected based on their abundance, and they hunted these species more frequently than expected based on this higher encounter rate. Lions responded variably to non-preferred and avoided prey species throughout the predatory sequence, although they hunted avoided prey far less frequently than expected based on the number of encounters of them. We conclude that actions of lions throughout the predatory behavioural sequence, but particularly early on, drive the prey preferences that have been documented for this species. Once a hunt is initiated, evolutionary adaptations to the predator-prey interactions drive hunting success. PMID:21915261

The national financial adjustment policy and the equalisation of health levels among prefectures.

PubMed

Takano, T; Nakamura, K

2001-10-01

The objectives of this study were to examine (1) trends concerning financial assistance from the national government to local governments, (2) trends regarding death rates and life expectancies among prefectures, and (3) the effect of the national financial adjustment policy in equalising both the revenues of local governments and variations in the health levels among prefectures in terms of death rates and life expectancies. The study analysed prefectural income, the amount of national taxes collected, financial assistance from the national government to local governments, and age adjusted death rates and life expectancies of all of the prefectures in Japan during the period from 1965 through 1995. (1) Under the financial adjustment policy, financial assistance from the national government to the local governments, which consists of the sum of the local allocation tax and treasury disbursements, increased from 1831 billion yen in 1965 to 31 116 billion yen in 1995. (2) During the same period, the age adjusted death rate per 100 000 people decreased from 1168.9 (1965) to 545.3 (1995). The range of variation in the age adjusted death rate among prefectures diminished as the coefficient of variation of the death rate declined from 0.060 in 1965 to 0.043 in 1995. (3) There was a significant statistical correlation between higher prefectural incomes and lower mortality rates during from 1965 until 1975 (p < 0.05), whereas this correlation was indistinct in the 1980s and has not been observed since 1990. (4) The relative health level of Tokyo has declined in terms of its ranking among all the prefectures with regard to life expectancy, from being the best in 1965 to below average in 1995. The national financial adjustment policy to balance the revenues of local governments has increased the health levels of rural prefectures. It is probable that the policy reduced the disparity in death rates and life expectancies among prefectures throughout the country. However, the policy has precluded the nation's capital city from applying its economic resources as local government expenditures to deal with the megacity issues affecting health.

High false-negative rate of anti-HCV among Egyptian patients on regular hemodialysis.

PubMed

El-Sherif, Assem; Elbahrawy, Ashraf; Aboelfotoh, Atef; Abdelkarim, Magdy; Saied Mohammad, Abdel-Gawad; Abdallah, Abdallah Mahmoud; Mostafa, Sadek; Elmestikawy, Amr; Elwassief, Ahmed; Salah, Mohamed; Abdelbaseer, Mohamed Ali; Abdelwahab, Kouka Saadeldin

2012-07-01

Routine serological testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among hemodialysis (HD) patients is currently recommended. A dilemma existed on the value of serology because some investigators reported a high rate of false-negative serologic testing. In this study, we aimed to detect the false-negative rate of anti-HCV among Egyptian HD patients. Seventy-eight HD patients, negative for anti-HCV, anti-HIV, and hepatitis B surface antigen, were tested for HCV RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). In the next step, the viral load was quantified by real-time PCR in RT-PCR-positive patients. Risk factors for HCV infection, as well as clinical and biochemical indicators of liver disease, were compared between false-negative and true-negative anti-HCV HD patients. The frequency of false-negative anti-HCV was 17.9%. Frequency of blood transfusion, duration of HD, dialysis at multiple centers, and diabetes mellitus were not identified as risk factors for HCV infection. The frequency of false-negative results had a linear relation to the prevalence of HCV infection in the HD units. Timely identification of HCV within dialysis units is needed in order to lower the risk of HCV spread within the HD units. The high false-negative rate of anti-HCV among HD patients in our study justifies testing of a large scale of patients for precious assessment of effectiveness of nucleic acid amplification technology testing in screening HD patient. © 2012 The Authors. Hemodialysis International © 2012 International Society for Hemodialysis.

Authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates.

PubMed

Jia, Yuane; Konold, Timothy R; Cornell, Dewey

2016-06-01

This study tested the association between school-wide measures of an authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates in a statewide sample of 315 high schools. Regression models at the school level of analysis used teacher and student measures of disciplinary structure, student support, and academic expectations to predict overall high school dropout rates. Analyses controlled for school demographics of school enrollment size, percentage of low-income students, percentage of minority students, and urbanicity. Consistent with authoritative school climate theory, moderation analyses found that when students perceive their teachers as supportive, high academic expectations are associated with lower dropout rates. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

Enabling fast charging - Vehicle considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meintz, Andrew; Zhang, Jiucai; Vijayagopal, Ram; Kreutzer, Cory; Ahmed, Shabbir; Bloom, Ira; Burnham, Andrew; Carlson, Richard B.; Dias, Fernando; Dufek, Eric J.; Francfort, James; Hardy, Keith; Jansen, Andrew N.; Keyser, Matthew; Markel, Anthony; Michelbacher, Christopher; Mohanpurkar, Manish; Pesaran, Ahmad; Scoffield, Don; Shirk, Matthew; Stephens, Thomas; Tanim, Tanvir

2017-11-01

To achieve a successful increase in the plug-in battery electric vehicle (BEV) market, it is anticipated that a significant improvement in battery performance is required to increase the range that BEVs can travel and the rate at which they can be recharged. While the range that BEVs can travel on a single recharge is improving, the recharge rate is still much slower than the refueling rate of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. To achieve comparable recharge times, we explore the vehicle considerations of charge rates of at least 400 kW. Faster recharge is expected to significantly mitigate the perceived deficiencies for long-distance transportation, to provide alternative charging in densely populated areas where overnight charging at home may not be possible, and to reduce range anxiety for travel within a city when unplanned charging may be required. This substantial increase in charging rate is expected to create technical issues in the design of the battery system and the vehicle's electrical architecture that must be resolved. This work focuses on vehicle system design and total recharge time to meet the goals of implementing improved charge rates and the impacts of these expected increases on system voltage and vehicle components.

Simulations on false gain in recombination-pumped soft-X-ray lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, T.; Kuroda, H.

1997-10-01

Numerical investigations are performed on false gain due to axial plasma expansion, which is expected to be important in initial proof-of-principle studies of recombination-pumped soft-X-ray lasers with extended capabilities. Modelling calculations of experiments with slab boron nitride targets reveal large false gain coefficients approaching 20 cm-1 in the case of plasmas with short active medium lengths. The false gain in the case of fiber targets is found to be of equal magnitude to that for slabs in the case of plasmas with less than 0.1 cm active medium lengths. Calculations for slab targets predict that adopting a tolerance of ǃ cm-1 for gain will severely restrict the time and the active medium length of the plasma that can be used for error-free observations, while those for fiber targets are found to be considerably relaxed. The effects of false gain in the 54.2 + Na Balmer ! laser is also investigated, again revealing the importance of this phenomena under optimum gain conditions.

The Influence of Color on the Consumer’s Experience of Beer

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Felipe Reinoso; Moors, Pieter; Wagemans, Johan; Spence, Charles

2017-01-01

Visual appearance (e.g., color) cues set expectations regarding the likely taste and flavor properties of food and drink. These expectations may, in turn, anchor the subsequent tasting experience. In the present study, we examined the influence of the color of a beer on the consumer’s experience. Dark and pale beers were evaluated both before and after tasting. Importantly, these beers were indistinguishable in terms of their taste/flavor when tasted without any visual cues. The results indicate that the differing visual appearance of the beers led to clear differences in expected taste/flavor. However, after tasting, no differences in flavor ratings were observed, indicating that the expectations based on visual cues did not influence the actual tasting experience. The participants also expected the dark beer to be more expensive than the pale one. These outcomes suggest that changes in the visual appearance of a beer lead to significant changes in the way in which consumers expect the beer to taste. At the same time, however, our findings also suggest the need for more evidence to be collected in order to determine the boundary conditions on when such crossmodal expectations may vs. may not affect the tasting experience. Highlights: The expected flavor of a beer is affected by its visual appearance. No differences in flavor ratings were observed on tasting. Consumers expect dark beers to be more expensive than pale/amber beers. PMID:29312065

The Influence of Color on the Consumer's Experience of Beer.

PubMed

Carvalho, Felipe Reinoso; Moors, Pieter; Wagemans, Johan; Spence, Charles

2017-01-01

Visual appearance (e.g., color) cues set expectations regarding the likely taste and flavor properties of food and drink. These expectations may, in turn, anchor the subsequent tasting experience. In the present study, we examined the influence of the color of a beer on the consumer's experience. Dark and pale beers were evaluated both before and after tasting. Importantly, these beers were indistinguishable in terms of their taste/flavor when tasted without any visual cues. The results indicate that the differing visual appearance of the beers led to clear differences in expected taste/flavor. However, after tasting, no differences in flavor ratings were observed, indicating that the expectations based on visual cues did not influence the actual tasting experience. The participants also expected the dark beer to be more expensive than the pale one. These outcomes suggest that changes in the visual appearance of a beer lead to significant changes in the way in which consumers expect the beer to taste. At the same time, however, our findings also suggest the need for more evidence to be collected in order to determine the boundary conditions on when such crossmodal expectations may vs. may not affect the tasting experience. Highlights: The expected flavor of a beer is affected by its visual appearance. No differences in flavor ratings were observed on tasting. Consumers expect dark beers to be more expensive than pale/amber beers.

Development and Implementation of Metrics for Identifying Military Impulse Noise

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

False Negative Rate FP False Positive FPR False Positive Rate FtC Fort Carson, CO GIS Geographic Information System GMM Gaussian mixture model Hz...60 70 80 90 100 110 Bin Number B in N um be r N um ber of D ata Points M apped to B in 14 Figure 8. Plot of typical neuron activation...signal metrics and waveform itself were saved and transmitted to the home base. There is also a provision to download the entire recorded waveform

Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for improved risk assessment for Down's syndrome.

PubMed

Koivu, Aki; Korpimäki, Teemu; Kivelä, Petri; Pahikkala, Tapio; Sairanen, Mikko

2018-05-04

Prenatal screening generates a great amount of data that is used for predicting risk of various disorders. Prenatal risk assessment is based on multiple clinical variables and overall performance is defined by how well the risk algorithm is optimized for the population in question. This article evaluates machine learning algorithms to improve performance of first trimester screening of Down syndrome. Machine learning algorithms pose an adaptive alternative to develop better risk assessment models using the existing clinical variables. Two real-world data sets were used to experiment with multiple classification algorithms. Implemented models were tested with a third, real-world, data set and performance was compared to a predicate method, a commercial risk assessment software. Best performing deep neural network model gave an area under the curve of 0.96 and detection rate of 78% with 1% false positive rate with the test data. Support vector machine model gave area under the curve of 0.95 and detection rate of 61% with 1% false positive rate with the same test data. When compared with the predicate method, the best support vector machine model was slightly inferior, but an optimized deep neural network model was able to give higher detection rates with same false positive rate or similar detection rate but with markedly lower false positive rate. This finding could further improve the first trimester screening for Down syndrome, by using existing clinical variables and a large training data derived from a specific population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

False positive rate of carbon monoxide saturation by pulse oximetry of emergency department patients.

PubMed

Weaver, Lindell K; Churchill, Susan K; Deru, Kayla; Cooney, Darryl

2013-02-01

Symptoms of carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning are non-specific. Diagnosis requires suspicion of exposure, confirmed by measuring ambient CO levels or carboxyhemoglobin (COHb). An FDA-approved pulse oximeter (Rad-57) can measure CO saturation (S(pCO)). The device accuracy has implications for clinical decision-making. From April 1 to August 15, 2008, study personnel measured S(pCO) and documented demographic factors at time of clinical blood draw, in a convenience sample of 1,363 subjects presenting to the emergency department at Intermountain Medical Center, Murray, Utah. The technician then assayed COHb. COHb and S(pCO) values were compared by subject; false positive or negative values were defined as S(pCO) at least 3 percentage points greater or less than COHb level, reported by the manufacturer to be ± 1 SD in performance. In 1,363 subjects, 613 (45%) were male, 1,141 (84%) were light-skinned, 14 in shock, 4 with CO poisoning, and 122 (9%) met the criteria for a false positive value (range 3-19 percentage points), while 247 (18%) met the criteria for a false negative value (-13 to -3 percentage points). Risks for a false positive S(pCO) reading included being female and having a lower perfusion index. Methemoglobin, body temperature, and blood pressure also appear to influence the S(pCO) accuracy. There was variability among monitors, possibly related to technician technique, as rotation of monitors among technicians was not enforced. While the Rad-57 pulse oximeter functioned within the manufacturer's specifications, clinicians using the Rad-57 should expect some S(pCO) readings to be significantly higher or lower than COHb measurements, and should not use S(pCO) to direct triage or patient management. An elevated S(pCO) could broaden the diagnosis of CO poisoning in patients with non-specific symptoms. However, a negative S(pCO) level in patients suspected of having CO poisoning should never rule out CO poisoning, and should always be confirmed by COHb. © 2013 Daedalus Enterprises.

An Evaluation of the Clinical Performance of Newly Qualified Nurses: A Competency Based Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connor, S. E.; Pearce, J.; Smith, R. L.; Voegeli, D.; Walton, P.

2001-01-01

Senior nurses' (n=139) expectations of 36 beginning nurses were compared with the beginners' competence ratings by their clinical preceptors. Senior nurses' expectations were lower than the actual competence demonstrated by the graduates, suggesting that assessment instruments should not be derived solely from supervisor expectations. (SK)

Nonoffending Parent Expectations of Sexually Abused Children: Predictive Factors and Influence on Children's Recovery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kouyoumdjian, Haig; Perry, Andrea R.; Hansen, David J.

2009-01-01

This study examined the influence of parental expectations on the functioning of sexually abused children. Participants included 67 sexually abused youth and 63 of their nonoffending primary caregivers. Parental expectations about how sexual abuse will impact children were predictive of parents' ratings of children's behavior at pretreatment,…

Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baskett, Linda Musun

1985-01-01

This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

Foiled Aspirations: The Influence of Unauthorized Status on the Educational Expectations of Latino Immigrant Youth

PubMed Central

Perreira, Krista; Spees, Lisa

2015-01-01

Latino immigrant adolescents have the highest high school dropout rates of any race-ethnic or nativity group in the United States. One potential reason for high dropout rates among Latino immigrant youth is that many are unauthorized entrants. These unauthorized Latino immigrant youth have few opportunities to attend college, and, as they become aware of barriers to their educational progress and employment, they may lower their educational expectations. Using data from the Latino Adolescent Migration, Health, and Adaptation Project (N=275), we examine the association of unauthorized entry into the U.S. with the educational expectations of Latino immigrant youth. We find that adolescents entering the U.S. without authorization have lower educational expectations than those who enter with authorization. These differences in their expectations persist after controlling for differences in their pre-migration, migration, and post-migration experiences. Policies and programs that reduce barriers to higher education and labor market opportunities can potentially help to foster higher educational expectations among unauthorized immigrant youth and may promote their high school completion. PMID:26451064

A prospective study of factors affecting recovery from musculoskeletal injuries.

PubMed

Booth-Kewley, Stephanie; Schmied, Emily A; Highfill-McRoy, Robyn M; Sander, Todd C; Blivin, Steve J; Garland, Cedric F

2014-06-01

Research suggests the importance of psychosocial factors in recovery from musculoskeletal injuries. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of recovery among U.S. Marines who had musculoskeletal injuries of the back, knee, or shoulder. A sample of 134 participants was assessed at baseline and followed for 1 year to determine outcome information. The strongest predictor of injury recovery at the 1-year follow-up was recovery expectations. In a multivariate logistic model with key demographic and psychosocial factors controlled, individuals who had high recovery expectations at baseline were over five times as likely to be recovered at follow-up as individuals who had low expectations (OR = 5.18, p\\.01). This finding is consistent with a large body of research that has linked recovery expectations with better recovery outcomes in patients with musculoskeletal injuries as well as with research linking recovery expectations with better outcomes across a wide range of medical conditions.Applied to military populations, interventions designed to modify recovery expectations may have the potential to improve rates of return to duty and to reduce rates of disability discharge.

Modeling Theater Level Logistics For Wargames

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-12-01

Sea Sparrow SM-1MR SM-2MR SM-2ER HARM AIM-54C AIM-9M AIM-9L AIM-7M AMRAAM AGM-65 AGM-62 Penguin TOW II HELLFIRE Guns: 20MM 20MM/76 25MM 40MM Grenade...Priority: 5 EmerPriority: 1 OutSize: FALSE Name: PENGUIN Class: Ammo ProduceAt: 25.00 Length: 84.00 Width: 24.00 Height: 24.00 Weight: 1500.00 Priority: 4...LowRate 26.000 NoneRate 26.000 PENGUIN StockTo 0.00 Deployment: FALSE HighRate: 0.000 MedRate 0.000 LowRate 0.000 NoneRate 0.000 SH-60F Class: Air

Emergency imaging after a mass casualty incident: role of the radiology department during training for and activation of a disaster management plan

PubMed Central

Körner, Markus; Bernstein, Mark P; Sodickson, Aaron D; Beenen, Ludo F; McLaughlin, Patrick D; Kool, Digna R; Bilow, Ronald M

2016-01-01

In the setting of mass casualty incidents (MCIs), hospitals need to divert from normal routine to delivering the best possible care to the largest number of victims. This should be accomplished by activating an established hospital disaster management plan (DMP) known to all staff through prior training drills. Over the recent decades, imaging has increasingly been used to evaluate critically ill patients. It can also be used to increase the accuracy of triaging MCI victims, since overtriage (falsely higher triage category) and undertriage (falsely lower triage category) can severely impact resource availability and mortality rates, respectively. This article emphasizes the importance of including the radiology department in hospital preparations for a MCI and highlights factors expected to influence performance during hospital DMP activation including issues pertinent to effective simulation, such as establishing proper learning objectives. After-action reviews including performance evaluation and debriefing on issues are invaluable following simulation drills and DMP activation, in order to improve subsequent preparedness. Historically, most hospital DMPs have not adequately included radiology department operations, and they have not or to a little extent been integrated in the DMP activation simulation. This article aims to increase awareness of the need for radiology department engagement in order to increase radiology department preparedness for DMP activation after a MCI occurs. PMID:26781837

Statistical approaches to account for false-positive errors in environmental DNA samples.

PubMed

Lahoz-Monfort, José J; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Tingley, Reid

2016-05-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is prone to both false-positive and false-negative errors. We review statistical methods to account for such errors in the analysis of eDNA data and use simulations to compare the performance of different modelling approaches. Our simulations illustrate that even low false-positive rates can produce biased estimates of occupancy and detectability. We further show that removing or classifying single PCR detections in an ad hoc manner under the suspicion that such records represent false positives, as sometimes advocated in the eDNA literature, also results in biased estimation of occupancy, detectability and false-positive rates. We advocate alternative approaches to account for false-positive errors that rely on prior information, or the collection of ancillary detection data at a subset of sites using a sampling method that is not prone to false-positive errors. We illustrate the advantages of these approaches over ad hoc classifications of detections and provide practical advice and code for fitting these models in maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. Given the severe bias induced by false-negative and false-positive errors, the methods presented here should be more routinely adopted in eDNA studies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Expectation maximization-based likelihood inference for flexible cure rate models with Weibull lifetimes.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy; Pal, Suvra

2016-08-01

Recently, a flexible cure rate survival model has been developed by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution. This model includes some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature as special cases. Data obtained from cancer clinical trials are often right censored and expectation maximization algorithm can be used in this case to efficiently estimate the model parameters based on right censored data. In this paper, we consider the competing cause scenario and assuming the time-to-event to follow the Weibull distribution, we derive the necessary steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for estimating the parameters of different cure rate survival models. The standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by inverting the observed information matrix. The method of inference developed here is examined by means of an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data on cancer recurrence. © The Author(s) 2013.

Excess incidence of ALS in young Gulf War veterans.

PubMed

Haley, Robert W

2003-09-23

Reported cases of ALS in young veterans of the 1991 Gulf War have suggested excess incidence. To compare observed and expected incidence of ALS in Gulf War veterans diagnosed before age 45 years (young veterans). Cases of ALS diagnosed from 1991 through 1998 were collected from military registries and a publicity campaign in late 1998. Diagnoses were established from neurologists' medical records using El Escorial criteria. Expected incidence was estimated from the age distribution of the Gulf War veteran population, weighted by age-specific death rates of the US population. Secular changes in nationwide ALS rates were assessed using calculations of the age-specific US population death rates from vital statistics data of 1979 to 1998. During 8 postwar years, 20 ALS cases were confirmed in approximately 690,000 Gulf War veterans, and 17 were diagnosed before age 45 years. All developed bulbar and spinal involvement, and 11 have died. In young veterans, the expected incidence increased from 0.93 cases/year in 1991 to 1.57 cases/year in 1998, but the observed incidence increased from 1 to 5 cases/year. The observed incidence was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.26 to 2.41) times that expected in the baseline period from 1991 to 1994 (4 vs 4.25 cases; p = 0.6); it increased to 2.27 (95% CI, 1.27 to 3.88) times that expected during the 4-year period from 1995 to 1998 (13 vs 5.72 cases; p = 0.006); and it peaked at 3.19 (95% CI, 1.03 to 7.43) times that expected in 1998 (5 vs 1.57 cases; p = 0.02). The magnitude of the excess of ALS cases over the expected incidence increased during the 8-year period (Poisson trend test, p = 0.05), and the increase was not explained by a change in the interval from onset to diagnosis or by a change in the US population death rate of ALS in those aged <45 years. The observed incidence of ALS in young Gulf War veterans exceeded the expected, suggesting a war-related environmental trigger.

Primary care clinician expectations regarding aging.

PubMed

Davis, Melinda M; Bond, Lynne A; Howard, Alan; Sarkisian, Catherine A

2011-12-01

Expectations regarding aging (ERA) in community-dwelling older adults are associated with personal health behaviors and health resource usage. Clinicians' age expectations likely influence patients' expectations and care delivery patterns; yet, limited research has explored clinicians' age expectations. The Expectations Regarding Aging Survey (ERA-12) was used to assess (a) age expectations in a sample of primary care clinicians practicing in the United States and (b) clinician characteristics associated with ERA-12 scores.  This study was a cross-sectional survey of primary care clinicians affiliated with 5 practice-based research networks, October 2008 to June 2009. A total of 374 of the 1,510 distributed surveys were returned (24.8% response rate); 357 analyzed. Mean respondent age was 48.6 years (SD = 11.6; range 23-87 years); 88.0% physicians, 96.0% family medicine, 94.9% White, and 61.9% male. Female clinicians reported higher ERA-12 scores; clinicians' age expectations decreased with greater years in practice. Among the clinicians, higher ERA-12 scores were associated with higher clinician ratings of the importance of and personal skill in administering preventive counseling and the importance of delivering preventive services. Agreement with individual ERA-12 items varied widely. Unrealistically high or low ERA could negatively influence the quality of care provided to patients and patients' own age expectations. Research should examine the etiology of clinicians' age expectations and their association with older adult diagnoses and treatment. Medical education must incorporate strategies to promote clinician attitudes that facilitate successful patient aging.

User acceptance of intelligent avionics: A study of automatic-aided target recognition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, Curtis A.; Hayes, Brian C.; Gorman, Patrick C.

1991-01-01

User acceptance of new support systems typically was evaluated after the systems were specified, designed, and built. The current study attempts to assess user acceptance of an Automatic-Aided Target Recognition (ATR) system using an emulation of such a proposed system. The detection accuracy and false alarm level of the ATR system were varied systematically, and subjects rated the tactical value of systems exhibiting different performance levels. Both detection accuracy and false alarm level affected the subjects' ratings. The data from two experiments suggest a cut-off point in ATR performance below which the subjects saw little tactical value in the system. An ATR system seems to have obvious tactical value only if it functions at a correct detection rate of 0.7 or better with a false alarm level of 0.167 false alarms per square degree or fewer.

Discounting and decision making in the economic evaluation of health-care technologies.

PubMed

Claxton, Karl; Paulden, Mike; Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Culyer, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Discounting costs and health benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis has been the subject of recent debate - some authors suggesting a common rate for both and others suggesting a lower rate for health. We show how these views turn on key judgments of fact and value: on whether the social objective is to maximise discounted health outcomes or the present consumption value of health; on whether the budget for health care is fixed; on the expected growth in the cost-effectiveness threshold; and on the expected growth in the consumption value of health. We demonstrate that if the budget for health care is fixed and decisions are based on incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounting costs and health gains at the same rate is correct only if the threshold remains constant. Expecting growth in the consumption value of health does not itself justify differential rates but implies a lower rate for both. However, whether one believes that the objective should be the maximisation of the present value of health or the present consumption value of health, adopting the social time preference rate for consumption as the discount rate for costs and health gains is valid only under strong and implausible assumptions about values and facts. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

15 CFR 29.650 - Grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Grant. 29.650 Section 29.650 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce GOVERNMENTWIDE REQUIREMENTS FOR DRUG-FREE... Federal Government's direct benefit or use; and (b) In which substantial involvement is not expected...

48 CFR 952.204-72 - Disclosure of information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... classified information or restricted data: Disclosure of Information (APR 1994) (a) It is mutually expected... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Disclosure of information... FORMS SOLICITATION PROVISIONS AND CONTRACT CLAUSES Text of Provisions and Clauses 952.204-72 Disclosure...

48 CFR 952.204-72 - Disclosure of information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... classified information or restricted data: Disclosure of Information (APR 1994) (a) It is mutually expected... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Disclosure of information... FORMS SOLICITATION PROVISIONS AND CONTRACT CLAUSES Text of Provisions and Clauses 952.204-72 Disclosure...

48 CFR 952.204-72 - Disclosure of information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... classified information or restricted data: Disclosure of Information (APR 1994) (a) It is mutually expected... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Disclosure of information... FORMS SOLICITATION PROVISIONS AND CONTRACT CLAUSES Text of Provisions and Clauses 952.204-72 Disclosure...

28 CFR 551.1 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Policy. 551.1 Section 551.1 Judicial Administration BUREAU OF PRISONS, DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT MISCELLANEOUS Grooming § 551.1 Policy. The Bureau of Prisons permits an inmate to select the hair style of personal choice, and expects...

28 CFR 551.1 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Policy. 551.1 Section 551.1 Judicial Administration BUREAU OF PRISONS, DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT MISCELLANEOUS Grooming § 551.1 Policy. The Bureau of Prisons permits an inmate to select the hair style of personal choice, and expects...

28 CFR 551.1 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Policy. 551.1 Section 551.1 Judicial Administration BUREAU OF PRISONS, DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT MISCELLANEOUS Grooming § 551.1 Policy. The Bureau of Prisons permits an inmate to select the hair style of personal choice, and expects...

24 CFR 242.28 - Allowable costs for consultants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Allowable costs for consultants... AUTHORITIES MORTGAGE INSURANCE FOR HOSPITALS Mortgage Requirements § 242.28 Allowable costs for consultants.... Allowable consulting fees include those for analysis of market demand, expected revenues, and costs; site...

24 CFR 242.28 - Allowable costs for consultants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Allowable costs for consultants... AUTHORITIES MORTGAGE INSURANCE FOR HOSPITALS Mortgage Requirements § 242.28 Allowable costs for consultants.... Allowable consulting fees include those for analysis of market demand, expected revenues, and costs; site...

24 CFR 242.28 - Allowable costs for consultants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Allowable costs for consultants... AUTHORITIES MORTGAGE INSURANCE FOR HOSPITALS Mortgage Requirements § 242.28 Allowable costs for consultants.... Allowable consulting fees include those for analysis of market demand, expected revenues, and costs; site...

48 CFR 836.574 - Subcontracts and work coordination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Subcontracts and work... Subcontracts and work coordination. The contracting officer shall insert the clause at 852.236-80, Subcontracts and work coordination, in solicitations and contracts for construction expected to exceed the micro...

10 CFR 602.11 - Funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Funding. 602.11 Section 602.11 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS EPIDEMIOLOGY AND OTHER HEALTH STUDIES FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM § 602.11 Funding. (a) The project period during which DOE expects to provide support for an approved...

28 CFR 551.1 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Policy. 551.1 Section 551.1 Judicial Administration BUREAU OF PRISONS, DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT MISCELLANEOUS Grooming § 551.1 Policy. The Bureau of Prisons permits an inmate to select the hair style of personal choice, and expects...

10 CFR 602.11 - Funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Funding. 602.11 Section 602.11 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS EPIDEMIOLOGY AND OTHER HEALTH STUDIES FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM § 602.11 Funding. (a) The project period during which DOE expects to provide support for an approved...

10 CFR 602.11 - Funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Funding. 602.11 Section 602.11 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS EPIDEMIOLOGY AND OTHER HEALTH STUDIES FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM § 602.11 Funding. (a) The project period during which DOE expects to provide support for an approved...

10 CFR 602.11 - Funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Funding. 602.11 Section 602.11 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS EPIDEMIOLOGY AND OTHER HEALTH STUDIES FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM § 602.11 Funding. (a) The project period during which DOE expects to provide support for an approved...

10 CFR 602.11 - Funding.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Funding. 602.11 Section 602.11 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS EPIDEMIOLOGY AND OTHER HEALTH STUDIES FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM § 602.11 Funding. (a) The project period during which DOE expects to provide support for an approved...

Harm beliefs and coping expectancies in youth with specific phobias.

PubMed

Ollendick, Thomas H; Öst, Lars-Göran; Ryan, Sarah M; Capriola, Nicole N; Reuterskiöld, Lena

2017-04-01

Catastrophic beliefs and lowered coping expectancies are often present in individuals with specific phobias (SPs). The current study examined these beliefs and expectancies in 251 youth who received One Session Treatment for one of the three most common types of SP in youth (animals, natural environment, and situational). We compared the children's subjective beliefs to objective ratings of the likelihood of occurrence and the dangerousness of the feared events. Results revealed pre-treatment differences in the youths' beliefs across phobia types and age. Specifically, children with animal phobias rated their beliefs as more likely to occur than did children with environmental and situational phobias. In addition, older children rated their beliefs as more dangerous than younger children. However, regardless of phobia type or child age, the beliefs improved following treatment. Changes in catastrophic beliefs and coping expectancies were related to changes in clinical severity following treatment but not 6-months following treatment. Moreover, at pre-treatment, children viewed their beliefs as significantly more catastrophic and likely to occur than did independent coders of these beliefs; however, these differences were no longer evident following treatment. Clinical implications are discussed, highlighting how changes in beliefs and expectancies might be associated with treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rate of false conviction of criminal defendants who are sentenced to death

PubMed Central

Gross, Samuel R.; O’Brien, Barbara; Hu, Chen; Kennedy, Edward H.

2014-01-01

The rate of erroneous conviction of innocent criminal defendants is often described as not merely unknown but unknowable. There is no systematic method to determine the accuracy of a criminal conviction; if there were, these errors would not occur in the first place. As a result, very few false convictions are ever discovered, and those that are discovered are not representative of the group as a whole. In the United States, however, a high proportion of false convictions that do come to light and produce exonerations are concentrated among the tiny minority of cases in which defendants are sentenced to death. This makes it possible to use data on death row exonerations to estimate the overall rate of false conviction among death sentences. The high rate of exoneration among death-sentenced defendants appears to be driven by the threat of execution, but most death-sentenced defendants are removed from death row and resentenced to life imprisonment, after which the likelihood of exoneration drops sharply. We use survival analysis to model this effect, and estimate that if all death-sentenced defendants remained under sentence of death indefinitely, at least 4.1% would be exonerated. We conclude that this is a conservative estimate of the proportion of false conviction among death sentences in the United States. PMID:24778209

Survival rates of Anopheles culicifacies s.l. and Anopheles pulcherrimus in sprayed and unsprayed villages in Ghassreghand district, Baluchistan, Iran, 1991.

PubMed

Zaim, M; Zahirnia, A H; Manouchehri, A V

1993-12-01

Survival rates, expectation of life, and expectation of infective life of Anopheles culicifacies and Anopheles pulcherrimus were estimated in sprayed and unsprayed villages in the highly malarious Ghassreghand District, Iran, during the 2 peak malaria transmission seasons in 1991. The daily survival rate of An. culicifacies was estimated as 0.84 and 0.78 during May and 0.89 and nil during September-October in the unsprayed and sprayed villages, respectively. For An. pulcherrimus the daily survival rate was estimated as 0.80 and 0.78 in May and 0.83 and 0.78 in September-October in the unsprayed and sprayed villages, respectively. The impact of indoor residual spraying during the first peak of transmission on An. culicifacies and An. pulcherrimus (expressed as the product of the degree of reduction of the expectation of infective life and the degree of reduction of expectation of life) was calculated as 3.5 and 1.5 times, respectively, that in the absence of control. The impact of indoor residual spraying on An. culicifacies during the second peak of transmission was almost complete, whereas that for An. pulcherrimus was 3.4 times than that in the absence of control.

False Discovery Control in Large-Scale Spatial Multiple Testing

PubMed Central

Sun, Wenguang; Reich, Brian J.; Cai, T. Tony; Guindani, Michele; Schwartzman, Armin

2014-01-01

Summary This article develops a unified theoretical and computational framework for false discovery control in multiple testing of spatial signals. We consider both point-wise and cluster-wise spatial analyses, and derive oracle procedures which optimally control the false discovery rate, false discovery exceedance and false cluster rate, respectively. A data-driven finite approximation strategy is developed to mimic the oracle procedures on a continuous spatial domain. Our multiple testing procedures are asymptotically valid and can be effectively implemented using Bayesian computational algorithms for analysis of large spatial data sets. Numerical results show that the proposed procedures lead to more accurate error control and better power performance than conventional methods. We demonstrate our methods for analyzing the time trends in tropospheric ozone in eastern US. PMID:25642138

Distinct neural representations of placebo and nocebo effect

PubMed Central

Freeman, Sonya; Yu, Rongjun; Egorova, Natalia; Chen, Xiaoyan; Kirsch, Irving; Claggett, Brian; Kaptchuk, Ted J.; Gollub, Randy L.; Kong, Jian

2015-01-01

Expectations shape the way we experience the world. In this study, we used fMRI to investigate how positive and negative expectation can changes pain experiences in the same cohort of subjects. We first manipulated subjects’ treatment expectation of the effectiveness of three inert creams, with one cream labeled “Lidocaine” (positive expectancy), one labeled “Capsaicin” (negative expectancy) and one labeled “Neutral” by surreptitiously decreasing, increasing, or not changing respectively, the intensity of the noxious stimuli administered following cream application. We then used fMRI to investigate the signal changes associated with administration of identical pain stimuli before and after the treatment and control creams. Twenty-four healthy adults completed the study. Results showed expectancy significantly modulated subjective pain ratings. After controlling for changes in the neutral condition, the subjective pain rating changes evoked by positive and negative expectancy were significantly associated. fMRI results showed that the expectation of an increase in pain induced significant fMRI signal changes in the insula, orbitofrontal cortex, and periaqueductal gray, whereas the expectation of pain relief evoked significant fMRI signal changes in the striatum. No brain regions were identified as common to both “Capsaicin” and “Lidocaine” conditioning. There was also no significant association between the brain response to identical noxious stimuli in the pain matrix evoked by positive and negative expectancy. Our findings suggest that positive and negative expectancy engage different brain networks to modulate our pain experiences, but, overall, these distinct patterns of neural activation result in a correlated placebo and nocebo behavioral response. PMID:25776211

Application of year-round atmospheric transmission data, collected with the MSRT multiband transmissometer during the FATMOSE trial in the False Bay area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Arie N.; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Cohen, Leo H.; Fritz, Peter J.; Gunter, Willem H.; Vrahimis, George; October, Faith J.

2011-09-01

The FATMOSE trial (False Bay Atmospheric Experiment) is a continuation of the cooperative work between TNO and IMT on atmospheric propagation and point target detection and identification in a maritime environment, South Africa). The atmospheric transmission, being of major importance for target detection, was measured with the MSRT multiband optical/IR transmissometer over a path of 15.7 km over sea. Simultaneously a set of instruments was installed on a midpath lighthouse for collection of local meteorological data, including turbulence, scintillation, sea surface temperature and visibility. The multiband transmission data allow the retrieval of the size distribution (PSD) of the particles (aerosols) in the transmission path. The retrieved PSD's can be correlated with the weather data such as windspeed, wind direction, relative humidity and visibility. This knowledge will lead to better atmospheric propagation models. The measurement period covered nearly a full year, starting in November 2009 and ending in October 2010. The False Bay site is ideal for studies on propagation effects over sea because of the large variety of weather conditions, including high windspeed, expected from the South East with maritime air masses, as well as Northerly winds, expected to bring warm and dry air from the continent. From an operational point of view the False Bay area is interesting, being representative for the scenery around the African coast with warships in an active protecting role in the battle against piracy. The yearround transmission data are an important input for range performance calculations of electro-optical sensors against maritime targets. The data support the choice of the proper spectral band and contain statistical information about the detection ranges to be expected. In this paper details on the instrumentation will be explained as well as the methods of calibration and PSD retrieval. Data are presented for various weather conditions, showing correlations between different parameters and including statistical behaviour over the year. Examples will be shown of special conditions such as refractive gain, gravity waves and showers.

Reducing Error Rates for Iris Image using higher Contrast in Normalization process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminu Ghali, Abdulrahman; Jamel, Sapiee; Abubakar Pindar, Zahraddeen; Hasssan Disina, Abdulkadir; Mat Daris, Mustafa

2017-08-01

Iris recognition system is the most secured, and faster means of identification and authentication. However, iris recognition system suffers a setback from blurring, low contrast and illumination due to low quality image which compromises the accuracy of the system. The acceptance or rejection rates of verified user depend solely on the quality of the image. In many cases, iris recognition system with low image contrast could falsely accept or reject user. Therefore this paper adopts Histogram Equalization Technique to address the problem of False Rejection Rate (FRR) and False Acceptance Rate (FAR) by enhancing the contrast of the iris image. A histogram equalization technique enhances the image quality and neutralizes the low contrast of the image at normalization stage. The experimental result shows that Histogram Equalization Technique has reduced FRR and FAR compared to the existing techniques.

Challenging gender stereotypes: Theory of mind and peer group dynamics.

PubMed

Mulvey, Kelly Lynn; Rizzo, Michael T; Killen, Melanie

2016-11-01

To investigate the social cognitive skills related to challenging gender stereotypes, children (N = 61, 3-6 years) evaluated a peer who challenged gender stereotypic norms held by the peer's group. Participants with false belief theory of mind (FB ToM) competence were more likely than participants who did not have FB ToM to expect a peer to challenge the group's stereotypes and propose that the group engage in a non-stereotypic activity. Further, participants with FB ToM rated challenging the peer group more positively. Participants without FB ToM did not differentiate between their own and the group's evaluation of challenges to the group's stereotypic norms, but those with ToM competence asserted that they would be more supportive of challenging the group norm than would the peer group. Results reveal the importance of social-cognitive competencies for recognizing the legitimacy of challenging stereotypes, and for understanding one's own and other group perspectives. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Challenging Gender Stereotypes: Theory of Mind and Peer Group Dynamics

PubMed Central

Mulvey, Kelly Lynn; Rizzo, Michael T.; Killen, Melanie

2016-01-01

To investigate the social cognitive skills related to challenging gender stereotypes, children (N = 61, 3-6 years) evaluated a peer who challenged gender stereotypic norms held by the peer’s group. Participants with false belief theory of mind (FB ToM) competence were more likely than participants who did not have FB ToM to expect a peer to challenge the group’s stereotypes and propose that the group engage in a non-stereotypic activity. Further, participants with FB ToM rated challenging the peer group more positively. Participants without FB ToM did not differentiate between their own and the group’s evaluation of challenges to the group’s stereotypic norms, but those with ToM competence asserted that they would be more supportive of challenging the group norm than would the peer group. Results reveal the importance of social-cognitive competencies for recognizing the legitimacy of challenging stereotypes, and for understanding one’s own and other group perspectives. PMID:26395753

Perpetuating "scientific motherhood": infant feeding discourse in Parents magazine, 1930-2007.

PubMed

Foss, Katherine A

2010-05-01

Although breastfeeding initiation rates have recently been at an all-time high, duration continues to be considerably low. Given the health benefits associated with extended breastfeeding, this discrepancy is cause for concern. This research examined the messages conveyed about infant feeding in a popular parenting magazine, Parents magazine, from 1930 through 2007. Findings indicated that the messages about infant feeding shifted in accordance with changing ideologies about the means of infant feeding-from bottle-feeding to breastfeeding. However, even with changing attitudes toward infant feeding, writers used scientific evidence and the advice of "experts" to justify the dominant form of feeding. The absence of practical advice regarding breastfeeding challenges, especially from "real" women set up false expectations about the breastfeeding experience, painting it as "natural" and best for the baby. The dependency on experts and lack of practical advice in popular media, like Parents magazine, may help explain a societal trend that downplays breastfeeding obstacles, giving insight into the vast discrepancy between breastfeeding initiation and duration.

Statistical lamb wave localization based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harley, Joel B.

2018-04-01

Guided wave localization methods based on delay-and-sum imaging, matched field processing, and other techniques have been designed and researched to create images that locate and describe structural damage. The maximum value of these images typically represent an estimated damage location. Yet, it is often unclear if this maximum value, or any other value in the image, is a statistically significant indicator of damage. Furthermore, there are currently few, if any, approaches to assess the statistical significance of guided wave localization images. As a result, we present statistical delay-and-sum and statistical matched field processing localization methods to create statistically significant images of damage. Our framework uses constant rate of false alarm statistics and extreme value theory to detect damage with little prior information. We demonstrate our methods with in situ guided wave data from an aluminum plate to detect two 0.75 cm diameter holes. Our results show an expected improvement in statistical significance as the number of sensors increase. With seventeen sensors, both methods successfully detect damage with statistical significance.

The effect of warnings on false memories in young and older adults.

PubMed

McCabe, David P; Smith, Anderson D

2002-10-01

In the present experiments, we examined adult age differences in the ability to suppress false memories, using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm (Deese, 1959; Roediger & McDermott, 1995). Participants studied lists of words (e.g., bed, rest, awake, etc.), each related to a nonpresented critical lure word (e.g., sleep). Typically, recognition tests reveal false alarms to critical lures at rates comparable to those for hits for studied words. In two experiments, separate groups of young and older adults were unwarned about the false memory effect, warned before studying the lists, or warned after study and before test. Lists were presented at either a slow rate (4 sec/word) or a faster rate (2 sec/word). Young adults were better able to discriminate between studied words and critical lures when warned about the DRM effect either before study or after study but before retrieval, and their performance improved with a slower presentation rate. Older adults were able to discriminate between studied words and critical lures when given warnings before study, but not when given warnings after study but before retrieval. Performance on a working memory capacity measure predicted false recognition following study and retrieval warnings. The results suggest that effective use of warnings to reduce false memories is contingent on the quality and type of encoded information, as well as on whether that information is accessed at retrieval. Furthermore, discriminating between similar sources of activation is dependent on working memory capacity, which declines with advancing age.

Lexical association and false memory for words in two cultures.

PubMed

Lee, Yuh-shiow; Chiang, Wen-Chi; Hung, Hsu-Ching

2008-01-01

This study examined the relationship between language experience and false memory produced by the DRM paradigm. The word lists used in Stadler, et al. (Memory & Cognition, 27, 494-500, 1999) were first translated into Chinese. False recall and false recognition for critical non-presented targets were then tested on a group of Chinese users. The average co-occurrence rate of the list word and the critical word was calculated based on two large Chinese corpuses. List-level analyses revealed that the correlation between the American and Taiwanese participants was significant only in false recognition. More importantly, the co-occurrence rate was significantly correlated with false recall and recognition of Taiwanese participants, and not of American participants. In addition, the backward association strength based on Nelson et al. (The University of South Florida word association, rhyme and word fragment norms, 1999) was significantly correlated with false recall of American participants and not of Taiwanese participants. Results are discussed in terms of the relationship between language experiences and lexical association in creating false memory for word lists.

Trust and the Compliance-Reliance Paradigm: The Effects of Risk, Error Bias, and Reliability on Trust and Dependence.

PubMed

Chancey, Eric T; Bliss, James P; Yamani, Yusuke; Handley, Holly A H

2017-05-01

This study provides a theoretical link between trust and the compliance-reliance paradigm. We propose that for trust mediation to occur, the operator must be presented with a salient choice, and there must be an element of risk for dependence. Research suggests that false alarms and misses affect dependence via two independent processes, hypothesized as trust in signals and trust in nonsignals. These two trust types manifest in categorically different behaviors: compliance and reliance. Eighty-eight participants completed a primary flight task and a secondary signaling system task. Participants evaluated their trust according to the informational bases of trust: performance, process, and purpose. Participants were in a high- or low-risk group. Signaling systems varied by reliability (90%, 60%) within subjects and error bias (false alarm prone, miss prone) between subjects. False-alarm rate affected compliance but not reliance. Miss rate affected reliance but not compliance. Mediation analyses indicated that trust mediated the relationship between false-alarm rate and compliance. Bayesian mediation analyses favored evidence indicating trust did not mediate miss rate and reliance. Conditional indirect effects indicated that factors of trust mediated the relationship between false-alarm rate and compliance (i.e., purpose) and reliance (i.e., process) but only in the high-risk group. The compliance-reliance paradigm is not the reflection of two types of trust. This research could be used to update training and design recommendations that are based upon the assumption that trust causes operator responses regardless of error bias.

Complaint handling in healthcare: expectation gaps between physicians and the public; results of a survey study.

PubMed

Friele, R D; Reitsma, P M; de Jong, J D

2015-10-01

Patients who submit complaints about the healthcare they have received are often dissatisfied with the response to their complaints. This is usually attributed to the failure of physicians to respond adequately to what complainants want, e.g. an apology or an explanation. However, expectations of complaint handling among the public may colour how they evaluate the way their own complaint is handled. This descriptive study assesses expectations of complaint handling in healthcare among the public and physicians. Negative public expectations and the gap between these expectations and those of physicians may explain patients' dissatisfaction with complaints procedures. We held two surveys; one among physicians, using a panel of 3366 physicians (response rate 57 %, containing all kinds of physicians like GP's, medical specialist and physicians working in a nursing home) and one among the public, using the Dutch Healthcare Consumer Panel (n = 1422, response rate 68 %). We asked both panels identical questions about their expectations of how complaints are handled in healthcare. Differences in expectation scores between the public and the physicians were tested using non-parametric tests. The public have negative expectations about how complaints are handled. Physician's expectations are far more positive, demonstrating large expectation gaps between physicians and the public. The large expectation gap between the public and physicians means that when they meet because of complaint, they are likely to start off with opposite expectations of the situation. This is no favourable condition for a positive outcome of a complaints procedure. The negative public preconceptions about the way their complaint will be handled will prove hard to change during the process of complaints handling. People tend to see what they thought would happen, almost inevitably leading to a negative judgement about how their complaint was handled.

75 FR 80866 - Credit Rating Standardization Study

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-23

... ratings using identical terms; standardizing the market stress conditions under which ratings are... probabilities and loss expectations under standardized conditions of economic stress; and standardizing credit... identical terms; (B) standardizing the market stress conditions under which ratings are evaluated; (C...

False-Positive Rate of AKI Using Consensus Creatinine-Based Criteria.

PubMed

Lin, Jennie; Fernandez, Hilda; Shashaty, Michael G S; Negoianu, Dan; Testani, Jeffrey M; Berns, Jeffrey S; Parikh, Chirag R; Wilson, F Perry

2015-10-07

Use of small changes in serum creatinine to diagnose AKI allows for earlier detection but may increase diagnostic false-positive rates because of inherent laboratory and biologic variabilities of creatinine. We examined serum creatinine measurement characteristics in a prospective observational clinical reference cohort of 2267 adult patients with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and used these data to create a simulation cohort to model AKI false-positive rates. We simulated up to seven successive blood draws on an equal population of hypothetical patients with unchanging true serum creatinine values. Error terms generated from laboratory and biologic variabilities were added to each simulated patient's true serum creatinine value to obtain the simulated measured serum creatinine for each blood draw. We determined the proportion of patients who would be erroneously diagnosed with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria. Within the clinical cohort, 75.0% of patients received four serum creatinine draws within at least one 48-hour period during hospitalization. After four simulated creatinine measurements that accounted for laboratory variability calculated from assay characteristics and 4.4% of biologic variability determined from the clinical cohort and publicly available data, the overall false-positive rate for AKI diagnosis was 8.0% (interquartile range =7.9%-8.1%), whereas patients with true serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dl (representing 21% of the clinical cohort) had a false-positive AKI diagnosis rate of 30.5% (interquartile range =30.1%-30.9%) versus 2.0% (interquartile range =1.9%-2.1%) in patients with true serum creatinine values <1.5 mg/dl (P<0.001). Use of small serum creatinine changes to diagnose AKI is limited by high false-positive rates caused by inherent variability of serum creatinine at higher baseline values, potentially misclassifying patients with CKD in AKI studies. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Effects of Test Expectation on Multiple-Choice Performance and Subjective Ratings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balch, William R.

2007-01-01

Undergraduates studied the definitions of 16 psychology terms, expecting either a multiple-choice (n = 132) or short-answer (n = 122) test. All students then received the same multiple-choice test, requiring them to recognize the definitions as well as novel examples of the terms. Compared to students expecting a multiple-choice test, those…

Sentinel lymph node mapping in melanoma: the issue of false-negative findings.

PubMed

Manca, Gianpiero; Rubello, Domenico; Romanini, Antonella; Boni, Giuseppe; Chiacchio, Serena; Tredici, Manuel; Mazzarri, Sara; Duce, Valerio; Colletti, Patrick M; Volterrani, Duccio; Mariani, Giuliano

2014-07-01

Management of cutaneous melanoma has changed after introduction in the clinical routine of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) for nodal staging. By defining the nodal basin status, SLNB provides a powerful prognostic information. Nevertheless, some debate still surrounds the accuracy of this procedure in terms of false-negative rate. Several large-scale studies have reported a relatively high false-negative rate (5.6%-21%), correctly defined as the proportion of false-negative results with respect to the total number of "actual" positive lymph nodes. In this review, we identified all the technical aspects that the nuclear medicine physician, the surgeon, and the pathologist should take into account to improve accuracy of the procedure and minimize the false-negative rate. In particular, SPECT/CT imaging detects more SLNs than those found by planar lymphoscintigraphy. Furthermore, the nuclear medicine community should reach a consensus on the radioactive counting rate threshold to better guide the surgeon in identifying the lymph nodes with the highest likelihood of housing metastases ("true biologic SLNs"). Analysis of the harvested SLNs by conventional techniques is also a further potential source for error. More accurate SLN analysis (eg, molecular analysis by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction) and more extensive SLN sampling identify more positive nodes, thus reducing the false-negative rate.The clinical factors identifying patients at higher-risk local recurrence after a negative SLNB include older age at diagnosis, deeper lesions, histological ulceration, and head-neck anatomic location of the primary lesion.The clinical impact of a false-negative SLNB on the prognosis of melanoma patients remains controversial, because the majority of studies have failed to demonstrate overall statistically significant disadvantage in melanoma-specific survival for false-negative SLNB patients compared with true-positive SLNB patients.When new more effective drugs will be available in the adjuvant setting for stage III melanoma patients, the implication of an accurate staging procedure for the sentinel lymph nodes will be crucial for both patients and clinicians. Standardization and accuracy of SLN identification, removal, and analysis are required.

Heart Rate, Life Expectancy and the Cardiovascular System: Therapeutic Considerations.

PubMed

Boudoulas, Konstantinos Dean; Borer, Jeffrey S; Boudoulas, Harisios

2015-01-01

It has long been known that life span is inversely related to resting heart rate in most organisms. This association between heart rate and survival has been attributed to the metabolic rate, which is greater in smaller animals and is directly associated with heart rate. Studies have shown that heart rate is related to survival in apparently healthy individuals and in patients with different underlying cardiovascular diseases. A decrease in heart rate due to therapeutic interventions may result in an increase in survival. However, there are many factors regulating heart rate, and it is quite plausible that these may independently affect life expectancy. Nonetheless, a fast heart rate itself affects the cardiovascular system in multiple ways (it increases ventricular work, myocardial oxygen consumption, endothelial stress, aortic/arterial stiffness, decreases myocardial oxygen supply, other) which, in turn, may affect survival. In this brief review, the effects of heart rate on the heart, arterial system and survival will be discussed. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

14 CFR 399.33 - Additional fare flexibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Additional fare flexibility. 399.33 Section 399.33 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (AVIATION... expect to be corrected through marketplace forces. [PS-92, 45 FR 24119, Apr. 9, 1980, as amended by PS-94...

14 CFR 399.33 - Additional fare flexibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Additional fare flexibility. 399.33 Section 399.33 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (AVIATION... expect to be corrected through marketplace forces. [PS-92, 45 FR 24119, Apr. 9, 1980, as amended by PS-94...

28 CFR 34.104 - Use of peer review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Use of peer review. 34.104 Section 34.104 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE OJJDP COMPETITION AND PEER REVIEW PROCEDURES Peer Review § 34... programs for which a large number of applications is expected, preapplications (concept papers) may be...

14 CFR 91.511 - Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... high frequency communications is expected to exist. [Doc. No. 18334, 54 FR 34314, Aug. 18, 1989, as... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations. 91.511 Section 91.511 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION...

14 CFR 91.511 - Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... high frequency communications is expected to exist. [Doc. No. 18334, 54 FR 34314, Aug. 18, 1989, as... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations. 91.511 Section 91.511 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION...

14 CFR 91.511 - Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... high frequency communications is expected to exist. [Doc. No. 18334, 54 FR 34314, Aug. 18, 1989, as... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations. 91.511 Section 91.511 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION...

14 CFR 91.511 - Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... high frequency communications is expected to exist. [Doc. No. 18334, 54 FR 34314, Aug. 18, 1989, as... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations. 91.511 Section 91.511 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION...

14 CFR 91.511 - Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... high frequency communications is expected to exist. [Doc. No. 18334, 54 FR 34314, Aug. 18, 1989, as... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Communication and navigation equipment for overwater operations. 91.511 Section 91.511 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION...

40 CFR 240.203-2 - Recommended procedures: Design.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Recommended procedures: Design. 240... § 240.203-2 Recommended procedures: Design. (a) The types, amounts (by weight and volume), and characteristics of all solid wastes expected to be processed should be determined by survey and analysis. The...

40 CFR 240.203-2 - Recommended procedures: Design.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Recommended procedures: Design. 240... § 240.203-2 Recommended procedures: Design. (a) The types, amounts (by weight and volume), and characteristics of all solid wastes expected to be processed should be determined by survey and analysis. The...

40 CFR 240.203-2 - Recommended procedures: Design.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Recommended procedures: Design. 240... § 240.203-2 Recommended procedures: Design. (a) The types, amounts (by weight and volume), and characteristics of all solid wastes expected to be processed should be determined by survey and analysis. The...

40 CFR 240.203-2 - Recommended procedures: Design.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Recommended procedures: Design. 240... § 240.203-2 Recommended procedures: Design. (a) The types, amounts (by weight and volume), and characteristics of all solid wastes expected to be processed should be determined by survey and analysis. The...

21 CFR 145.110 - Canned applesauce.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... throughout the expected shelf life of the food under customary conditions of distribution. (ix) Color... 21 Food and Drugs 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Canned applesauce. 145.110 Section 145.110 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR...

21 CFR 145.110 - Canned applesauce.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... throughout the expected shelf life of the food under customary conditions of distribution. (ix) Color... 21 Food and Drugs 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Canned applesauce. 145.110 Section 145.110 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR...

21 CFR 145.110 - Canned applesauce.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... throughout the expected shelf life of the food under customary conditions of distribution. (ix) Color... 21 Food and Drugs 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Canned applesauce. 145.110 Section 145.110 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR...

21 CFR 211.166 - Stability testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Stability testing. 211.166 Section 211.166 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... indicate that there is no degradation of the product for the normal or expected period of use. (2...

New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birnbaum, Michael H.

2008-01-01

During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…

20 CFR 416.909 - How long the impairment must last.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false How long the impairment must last. 416.909 Section 416.909 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME FOR THE... long the impairment must last. Unless your impairment is expected to result in death, it must have...

49 CFR 1180.6 - Supporting information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Year (10) Conditions to mitigate and offset merger-related harms. Applicants are expected to propose... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Supporting information. 1180.6 Section 1180.6... will occur, the time frame of the impact (for at least 3 years after consolidation), and whether any...

7 CFR 1405.6 - Crop insurance requirement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... contributed in the previous year, or is expected to contribute in the current crop year, 10 percent or more of... 7 Agriculture 10 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Crop insurance requirement. 1405.6 Section 1405.6 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT...

49 CFR 1180.6 - Supporting information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Year (10) Conditions to mitigate and offset merger-related harms. Applicants are expected to propose... 49 Transportation 8 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Supporting information. 1180.6 Section 1180.6... will occur, the time frame of the impact (for at least 3 years after consolidation), and whether any...

8 CFR 204.301 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Definitions. 204.301 Section 204.301 Aliens... 204.300(b), means the adoption, on or after the Convention effective date, of an alien child... child's life so that the parent's whereabouts are unknown, there is no reasonable expectation of the...

8 CFR 204.301 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Definitions. 204.301 Section 204.301 Aliens... 204.300(b), means the adoption, on or after the Convention effective date, of an alien child... child's life so that the parent's whereabouts are unknown, there is no reasonable expectation of the...

8 CFR 204.301 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Definitions. 204.301 Section 204.301 Aliens... 204.300(b), means the adoption, on or after the Convention effective date, of an alien child... child's life so that the parent's whereabouts are unknown, there is no reasonable expectation of the...

14 CFR 417.409 - System hazard controls.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., or system must account for static and dynamic loads, environmental stresses, and expected wear; (3... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false System hazard controls. 417.409 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Ground Safety § 417.409 System hazard controls. (a) General...

38 CFR 64.12 - Scoring and selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Scoring and selection. 64.12 Section 64.12 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED... application is reasonable and expected to meet requirements of § 64.10(b)(5). (5) Organizational finances...

38 CFR 64.12 - Scoring and selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Scoring and selection. 64.12 Section 64.12 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED... application is reasonable and expected to meet requirements of § 64.10(b)(5). (5) Organizational finances...