DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, J.R.; Marshall, M.E.; Barker, B.W.

In situations where cavity decoupling of underground nuclear explosions is a plausible evasion scenario, comprehensive seismic monitoring of any eventual CTBT will require the routine identification of many small seismic events with magnitudes in the range 2.0 < m sub b < 3.5. However, since such events are not expected to be detected teleseismically, their magnitudes will have to be estimated from regional recordings using seismic phases and frequency bands which are different from those employed in the teleseismic m sub b scale which is generally used to specify monitoring capability. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the m submore » b equivalences of any selected regional magnitude measures in order to estimate the expected detection statistics and thresholds of proposed CTBT seismic monitoring networks. In the investigations summarized in this report, this has been accomplished through analyses of synthetic data obtained by theoretically scaling observed regional seismic data recorded in Scandinavia and Central Asia from various tamped nuclear tests to obtain estimates of the corresponding seismic signals to be expected from small cavity decoupled nuclear tests at those same source locations.« less

Scientific Rationale and Requirements for a Global Seismic Network on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, Sean C.; Anderson, Don L.; Banerdt, W. Bruce; Butler, Rhett G.; Davis, Paul M.; Duennebier, Frederick K.; Nakamura, Yosio; Okal, Emile A.; Phillips, Roger J.

1991-01-01

Following a brief overview of the mission concepts for a Mars Global Network Mission as of the time of the workshop, we present the principal scientific objectives to be achieved by a Mars seismic network. We review the lessons for extraterrestrial seismology gained from experience to date on the Moon and on Mars. An important unknown on Mars is the expected rate of seismicity, but theoretical expectations and extrapolation from lunar experience both support the view that seismicity rates, wave propagation characteristics, and signal-to-noise ratios are favorable to the collection of a scientifically rich dataset during the multiyear operation of a global seismic experiment. We discuss how particular types of seismic waves will provide the most useful information to address each of the scientific objectives, and this discussion provides the basis for a strategy for station siting. Finally, we define the necessary technical requirements for the seismic stations.

Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2015-12-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Result of recent two years -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimoyama, T.; Doi, K.; Kiyomoto, M.; Hoshiba, M.

2009-12-01

Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) started to provide Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) to the general public in October 2007. It was followed by provision of EEW to a limited number of users who understand the technical limit of EEW and can utilize it for automatic control from August 2006. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan definitely means information of estimated amplitude and arrival time of a strong ground motion after fault rupture occurred. In other words, the EEW provided by JMA is defined as a forecast of a strong ground motion before the strong motion arrival. EEW of JMA is to enable advance countermeasures to disasters caused by strong ground motions with providing a warning message of anticipating strong ground motion before the S wave arrival. However, due to its very short available time period, there should need some measures and ideas to provide rapidly EEW and utilize it properly. - EEW is issued to general public when the maximum seismic intensity 5 lower (JMA scale) or greater is expected. - EEW message contains origin time, epicentral region name, and names of areas (unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 of one prefecture) where seismic intensity 4 or greater is expected. Expected arrival time is not included because it differs substantially even in one unit area. - EEW is to be broadcast through the broadcasting media(TV, radio and City Administrative Disaster Management Radio), and is delivered to cellular phones through cell broadcast system. For those who would like to know the more precise estimation and smaller earthquake information at their point of their properties, JMA allows designated private companies to provide forecast of strong ground motion, in which the estimation of a seismic intensity as well as arrival time of S-wave are contained, at arbitrary places under the JMA’s technical assurance. From October, 2007 to August, 2009, JMA issued 11 warnings to general public expecting seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater, including M=7.2 inland earthquake at Tohoku district (Iwate-Miyagi-nairiku-earthquakes; June 14, 2008) and M=6.5 earthquake at Suruga bay (August, 11, 2009). For 7 cases out of 11 cases seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater were actually observed; for 3 cases, observed maximum seismic intensity was 4; for 1 case it was false alarm. During this period, 10 earthquakes occurred for which observed maximum seismic intensity was “5 lower” or greater. For 7 cases out of 10, JMA issued the warnings to general public; for 3 cases the warnings were not issued because expected seismic intensity was 4. The false alarm, which occurred on 25, August, 2009 by software bag, raised discussion how the false warning should be canceled. In this study, we will summarize the performance of the system ,and introduce some examples of the actual issuance .

Expected Seismicity and the Seismic Noise Environment of Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panning, Mark P.; Stähler, Simon C.; Huang, Hsin-Hua; Vance, Steven D.; Kedar, Sharon; Tsai, Victor C.; Pike, William T.; Lorenz, Ralph D.

2018-01-01

Seismic data will be a vital geophysical constraint on internal structure of Europa if we land instruments on the surface. Quantifying expected seismic activity on Europa both in terms of large, recognizable signals and ambient background noise is important for understanding dynamics of the moon, as well as interpretation of potential future data. Seismic energy sources will likely include cracking in the ice shell and turbulent motion in the oceans. We define a range of models of seismic activity in Europa's ice shell by assuming each model follows a Gutenberg-Richter relationship with varying parameters. A range of cumulative seismic moment release between 1016 and 1018 Nm/yr is defined by scaling tidal dissipation energy to tectonic events on the Earth's moon. Random catalogs are generated and used to create synthetic continuous noise records through numerical wave propagation in thermodynamically self-consistent models of the interior structure of Europa. Spectral characteristics of the noise are calculated by determining probabilistic power spectral densities of the synthetic records. While the range of seismicity models predicts noise levels that vary by 80 dB, we show that most noise estimates are below the self-noise floor of high-frequency geophones but may be recorded by more sensitive instruments. The largest expected signals exceed background noise by ˜50 dB. Noise records may allow for constraints on interior structure through autocorrelation. Models of seismic noise generated by pressure variations at the base of the ice shell due to turbulent motions in the subsurface ocean may also generate observable seismic noise.

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2016-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

Improved Simplified Methods for Effective Seismic Analysis and Design of Isolated and Damped Bridges in Western and Eastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koval, Viacheslav

The seismic design provisions of the CSA-S6 Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code and the AASHTO LRFD Seismic Bridge Design Specifications have been developed primarily based on historical earthquake events that have occurred along the west coast of North America. For the design of seismic isolation systems, these codes include simplified analysis and design methods. The appropriateness and range of application of these methods are investigated through extensive parametric nonlinear time history analyses in this thesis. It was found that there is a need to adjust existing design guidelines to better capture the expected nonlinear response of isolated bridges. For isolated bridges located in eastern North America, new damping coefficients are proposed. The applicability limits of the code-based simplified methods have been redefined to ensure that the modified method will lead to conservative results and that a wider range of seismically isolated bridges can be covered by this method. The possibility of further improving current simplified code methods was also examined. By transforming the quantity of allocated energy into a displacement contribution, an idealized analytical solution is proposed as a new simplified design method. This method realistically reflects the effects of ground-motion and system design parameters, including the effects of a drifted oscillation center. The proposed method is therefore more appropriate than current existing simplified methods and can be applicable to isolation systems exhibiting a wider range of properties. A multi-level-hazard performance matrix has been adopted by different seismic provisions worldwide and will be incorporated into the new edition of the Canadian CSA-S6-14 Bridge Design code. However, the combined effect and optimal use of isolation and supplemental damping devices in bridges have not been fully exploited yet to achieve enhanced performance under different levels of seismic hazard. A novel Dual-Level Seismic Protection (DLSP) concept is proposed and developed in this thesis which permits to achieve optimum seismic performance with combined isolation and supplemental damping devices in bridges. This concept is shown to represent an attractive design approach for both the upgrade of existing seismically deficient bridges and the design of new isolated bridges.

Effects of magnitude, depth, and time on cellular seismology forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Steven Wolf

This study finds that, in most cases analyzed to date, past seismicity tends to delineate zones where future earthquakes are likely to occur. Network seismicity catalogs for the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), Australia (AUS), California (CA), and Alaska (AK) are analyzed using modified versions of the Cellular Seismology (CS) method of Kafka (2002, 2007). The percentage of later occurring earthquakes located near earlier occurring earthquakes typically exceeds the expected percentage for randomly distributed later occurring earthquakes, and the specific percentage is influenced by several variables, including magnitude, depth, time, and tectonic setting. At 33% map area coverage, hit percents are typically 85-95% in the NMSZ, 50-60% in AUS, 75-85% in CA, and 75-85% in AK. Statistical significance testing is performed on trials analyzing the same variables so that the overall regions can be compared, although some tests are inconclusive due to the small number of earthquake sample sizes. These results offer useful insights into understanding the capabilities and limits of CS studies, which can provide guidance for improving the seismicity-based components of seismic hazard assessments.

Induced seismicity and implications for CO2 storage risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerstenberger, M. C.; Nicol, A.; Bromley, C.; Carne, R.; Chardot, L.; Ellis, S. M.; Jenkins, C.; Siggins, T.; Viskovic, P.

2012-12-01

We provide an overview of a recently completed report for the IEA GHG that represents a comprehensive review of current research and observations in induced seismicity, its risk to successful completion of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects and potential mitigation measures. We focus on two topics: a meta-analysis of related data from multiple injection projects around the globe and the implications of these data for CCS induced seismicity risk management. Published data have been compiled from injection and extraction projects around the globe to examine statistical relationships between possible controlling factors and induced seismicity. Quality control of such observational earthquake data sets is crucial to ensure robust results and issues with bias and completeness of the data set will be discussed. Analyses of the available data support previous suggestions that the locations, numbers and magnitudes of induced earthquakes are dependent on a range of factors, including the injection rate, total injected fluid volume, the reservoir permeability and the proximity of pre-existing faults. Increases in the injection rates and total volume of fluid injected, for example, typically raise reservoir pressures and increase the likelihood of elevated seismicity rates and maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes. The risks associated with induced seismicity at CCS sites can be reduced and mitigated using a systematic and structured risk management programme. While precise forecasts of the expected induced seismicity may never be possible, a thorough risk management procedure should include some level of knowledge of the possible behaviour of induced seismicity. Risk management requires estimates of the expected magnitude, number, location and timing of potential induced earthquakes. Such forecasts should utilise site specific observations together with physical and statistical models that are optimised for the site. Statistical models presently show the most promise for forecasting induced seismicity after injection has commenced, however, with further development physical models could become key predictive tools. Combining forecasts with real-time monitoring of induced seismicity will be necessary to maintain an accurate picture of the seismicity and to allow for mitigation of the associated risks as they evolve. To optimise the utility of monitoring and mitigation programmes, site performance and management guidelines for the acceptable levels and impacts of induced seismicity together with key control measures should be established prior to injection. Such guidelines have been developed for Enhanced Geothermal Systems and should provide the starting point for a management strategy of induced seismicity at CCS sites.

Expected damages of retrofitted bridges with RC jacketing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montes, O.; Jara, J. M.; Jara, M.; Olmos, B. A.

2015-07-01

The bridge infrastructure in many countries of the world consists of medium span length structures built several decades ago and designed for very low seismic forces. Many of them are reinforced concrete structures that according to the current code regulations have to be rehabilitated to increase their seismic capacity. One way to reduce the vulnerability of the bridges is by using retrofitting techniques that increase the strength of the structure or by incorporating devices to reduce the seismic demand. One of the most common retrofit techniques of the bridges substructures is the use of RC jacketing; this research assesses the expected damages of seismically deficient medium length highway bridges retrofitted with reinforced concrete jacketing, by conducting a parametric study. We select a suite of twenty accelerograms of subduction earthquakes recorded close to the Pacific Coast in Mexico. The original structures consist of five 30 m span simple supported bridges with five pier heights of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m 20 and 25 m and the analyses include three different jacket thickness and three steel ratios. The bridges were subjected to the seismic records and non-linear time history analyses were carried out by using the OpenSEEs Plataform. Results allow selecting the reinforced concrete jacketing that better improves the expected seismic behavior of the bridge models.

Transparent Seismic Mitigation for Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poland, C. D.; Pekelnicky, R.

2008-12-01

Healthy communities continuously grow by leveraging their intellectual capital to drive economic development while protecting their cultural heritage. Success, in part, depends on the support of a healthy built environment that is rooted in contemporary urban planning, sustainability and disaster resilience. Planners and policy makers are deeply concerned with all aspects of their communities, including its seismic safety. Their reluctance to implement the latest plans for achieving seismic safety is rooted in a misunderstanding of the hazard they face and the risk it poses to their built environment. Probabilistic lingo and public debate about how big the "big one" will be drives them to resort to their own experience and intuition. There is a fundamental lack of transparency related to what is expected to happen, and it is partially blocking the policy changes that are needed. The solution: craft the message in broad based, usable terms that name the hazard, defines performance, and establishes a set of performance goals that represent the resiliency needed to drive a community's natural ability to rebound from a major seismic event. By using transparent goals and measures with an intuitive vocabulary for both performance and hazard, earthquake professionals, working with the San Francisco Urban Planning and Research Association (SPUR), have defined a level of resiliency that needs to be achieved by the City of San Francisco to assure their response to an event will be manageable and full recovery achievable within three years. Five performance measures for buildings and three for lifeline systems have been defined. Each declares whether people will be safe inside, whether the building will be able to be repaired and whether they will be usable during repairs. Lifeline systems are further defined in terms of the time intervals to restore 90%, 95%, and full service. These transparent categories are used in conjunction with the expected earthquake level to describe the standards needed for new buildings and lifelines and the rehabilitation programs needed for existing buildings and systems. Earthquake professionals -- Emergency Response Planners, Earth Scientists, and Earthquake Engineers - need to embrace this level of transparency and work with their communities to craft the policies needed to instill change and achieve disaster resilience.

Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume relative to the previous year. These results imply that such hazard maps have the potential to be valuable tools for policy makers and regulators in managing the seismic risks associated with unconventional oil and gas production.

A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking recurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.

2015-12-01

Different earthquake hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence rate of larger sporadic earthquakes may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound recurrence estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their recurrence. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of earthquake scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario earthquakes (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for recurrence has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a recurrence estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding recurrences. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.

Detecting Seismic Infrasound Signals on Balloon Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamoorthy, S.; Komjathy, A.; Cutts, J. A.; Pauken, M.; Garcia, R.; Mimoun, D.; Jackson, J. M.; Kedar, S.; Smrekar, S. E.; Hall, J. L.

2017-12-01

The determination of the interior structure of a planet requires detailed seismic investigations - a process that entails the detection and characterization of seismic waves due to geological activities (e.g., earthquakes, volcanoes, etc.). For decades, this task has primarily been performed on Earth by an ever-expanding network of terrestrial seismic stations. However, on planets such as Venus, where the surface pressure and temperature can reach as high as 90 atmospheres and 450 degrees Celsius respectively, placing seismometers on the planet's surface poses a vexing technological challenge. However, the upper layers of the Venusian atmosphere are more benign and capable of hosting geophysical payloads for longer mission lifetimes. In order to achieve the aim of performing geophysical experiments from an atmospheric platform, JPL and its partners (ISAE-SUPAERO and California Institute of Technology) are in the process of developing technologies for detection of infrasonic waves generated by earthquakes from a balloon. The coupling of seismic energy into the atmosphere critically depends on the density differential between the surface of the planet and the atmosphere. Therefore, the successful demonstration of this technique on Earth would provide ample reason to expect success on Venus, where the atmospheric impedance is approximately 60 times that of Earth. In this presentation, we will share results from the first set of Earth-based balloon experiments performed in Pahrump, Nevada in June 2017. These tests involved the generation of artificial sources of known intensity using a seismic hammer and their detection using a complex network of sensors, including highly sensitive micro-barometers suspended from balloons, GPS receivers, geophones, microphones, and seismometers. This experiment was the first of its kind and was successful in detecting infrasonic waves from the earthquakes generated by the seismic hammer. We will present the first comprehensive analysis of the data obtained from these sensors and use these data to characterize the infrasound signal created by earthquakes. These data will also inform the design of future experiments, which will involve tropospheric and stratospheric flights above naturally occurring areas with high seismicity.

Dike propagation energy balance from deformation modeling and seismic release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaccorso, Alessandro; Aoki, Yosuke; Rivalta, Eleonora

2017-06-01

Magma is transported in the crust mainly by dike intrusions. In volcanic areas, dikes can ascend toward the free surface and also move by lateral propagation, eventually feeding flank eruptions. Understanding dike mechanics is a key to forecasting the expected propagation and associated hazard. Several studies have been conducted on dike mechanisms and propagation; however, a less in-depth investigated aspect is the relation between measured dike-induced deformation and the seismicity released during its propagation. We individuated a simple x that can be used as a proxy of the expected mechanical energy released by a propagating dike and is related to its average thickness. For several intrusions around the world (Afar, Japan, and Mount Etna), we correlate such mechanical energy to the seismic moment released by the induced earthquakes. We obtain an empirical law that quantifies the expected seismic energy released before arrest. The proposed approach may be helpful to predict the total seismic moment that will be released by an intrusion and thus to control the energy status during its propagation and the time of dike arrest.