Power Dependence in Individual Bargaining: The Expected Utility of Influence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawler, Edward J.; Bacharach, Samuel B.

1979-01-01

This study uses power-dependence theory as a framework for examining whether and how parties use information on each other's dependence to estimate the utility of an influence attempt. The effect of dependence in expected utilities is investigated (by role playing) in bargaining between employer and employee for a pay raise. (MF)

Rational decision perspectives on alcohol consumption by youth. Revising the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Kuther, Tara L

2002-01-01

Cognitive and developmental approaches have made great strides in describing and predicting alcohol consumption by youth. The present review examines several theories of decision making with regard to alcohol consumption, including subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior, and alcohol-related outcome expectancy theory. In addition, the developmental literature on the contribution of parents and peers to adolescent alcohol consumption is reviewed. A model is proposed, which integrates the theory of planned behavior and alcohol-related outcome expectancy theory with modifications based on findings from the developmental literature. Implications for further research are discussed.

A simple test of expected utility theory using professional traders

PubMed Central

List, John A.; Haigh, Michael S.

2005-01-01

We compare behavior across students and professional traders from the Chicago Board of Trade in a classic Allais paradox experiment. Our experiment tests whether independence, a necessary condition in expected utility theory, is systematically violated. We find that both students and professionals exhibit some behavior consistent with the Allais paradox, but the data pattern does suggest that the trader population falls prey to the Allais paradox less frequently than the student population. PMID:15634739

New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-03-01

Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives and allowed researchers to monitor the process students used to make a...revealed distinct risk-management strategies. 15. SUBJECT TERMS risk managements, acquisition process, expected value theory , multi-attribute utility theory ...Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used to arrive at

Framing effects and risky decisions in starlings.

PubMed

Marsh, Barnaby; Kacelnik, Alex

2002-03-05

Animals are predominantly risk prone toward reward delays and risk averse toward reward amounts. Humans in turn tend to be risk-seeking for losses and risk averse for gains. To explain the human results, Prospect Theory postulates a convex utility for losses and concave utility for gains. In contrast, Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) explains the animal data by postulating that the cognitive representation of outcomes follows Weber's Law, namely that the spread of the distribution of expected outcomes is proportional to its mean. SUT also would explain human results if utility (even if it is linear on expected outcome) followed Weber's Law. We present an experiment that simulates losses and gains in a bird, the European Starling, to test the implication of SUT that risk proneness/aversion should extend to any aversive/desirable dimension other than time and amount of reward. Losses and gains were simulated by offering choices of fixed vs. variable outcomes with lower or higher outcomes than what the birds expected. The subjects were significantly more risk prone for losses than for gains but, against expectations, they were not significantly risk averse toward gains. The results are thus, in part, consistent with Prospect Theory and SUT and show that risk attitude in humans and birds may obey a common fundamental principle.

Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

1981-01-01

Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

The free-energy principle: a unified brain theory?

PubMed

Friston, Karl

2010-02-01

A free-energy principle has been proposed recently that accounts for action, perception and learning. This Review looks at some key brain theories in the biological (for example, neural Darwinism) and physical (for example, information theory and optimal control theory) sciences from the free-energy perspective. Crucially, one key theme runs through each of these theories - optimization. Furthermore, if we look closely at what is optimized, the same quantity keeps emerging, namely value (expected reward, expected utility) or its complement, surprise (prediction error, expected cost). This is the quantity that is optimized under the free-energy principle, which suggests that several global brain theories might be unified within a free-energy framework.

Are prescription drug insurance choices consistent with expected utility theory?

PubMed

Bundorf, M Kate; Mata, Rui; Schoenbaum, Michael; Bhattacharya, Jay

2013-09-01

To determine the extent to which people make choices inconsistent with expected utility theory when choosing among prescription drug insurance plans and whether tabular or graphical presentation format influences the consistency of their choices. Members of an Internet-enabled panel chose between two Medicare prescription drug plans. The "low variance" plan required higher out-of-pocket payments for the drugs respondents usually took but lower out-of-pocket payments for the drugs they might need if they developed a new health condition than the "high variance" plan. The probability of a change in health varied within subjects and the presentation format (text vs. graphical) and the affective salience of the clinical condition (abstract vs. risk related to specific clinical condition) varied between subjects. Respondents were classified based on whether they consistently chose either the low or high variance plan. Logistic regression models were estimated to examine the relationship between decision outcomes and task characteristics. The majority of respondents consistently chose either the low or high variance plan, consistent with expected utility theory. Half of respondents consistently chose the low variance plan. Respondents were less likely to make discrepant choices when information was presented in graphical format. Many people, although not all, make choices consistent with expected utility theory when they have information on differences among plans in the variance of out-of-pocket spending. Medicare beneficiaries would benefit from information on the extent to which prescription drug plans provide risk protection. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

More Value through Greater Differentiation: Gender Differences in Value Beliefs about Math

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaspard, Hanna; Dicke, Anna-Lena; Flunger, Barbara; Schreier, Brigitte; Häfner, Isabelle; Trautwein, Ulrich; Nagengast, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983) is a prominent approach to explaining gender differences in math-related academic choices, with value beliefs acting as an important explanatory factor. Expectancy-value theory defines 4 value components: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, and cost. The present study followed up on…

Receptor theory and biological constraints on value.

PubMed

Berns, Gregory S; Capra, C Monica; Noussair, Charles

2007-05-01

Modern economic theories of value derive from expected utility theory. Behavioral evidence points strongly toward departures from linear value weighting, which has given rise to alternative formulations that include prospect theory and rank-dependent utility theory. Many of the nonlinear forms for value assumed by these theories can be derived from the assumption that value is signaled by neurotransmitters in the brain, which obey simple laws of molecular movement. From the laws of mass action and receptor occupancy, we show how behaviorally observed forms of nonlinear value functions can arise.

Less Is Sometimes More: Goal Content Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Simons, Joke; Lens, Willy; Soenens, Bart; Matos, Lennia; Lacante, Marlies

2004-01-01

According to expectancy-value theories, increasing the utility value of a learning activity should result in higher motivation and better learning. In contrast, self-determination theory posits that the content of the future goals (intrinsic vs. extrinsic) that enhance the utility value of the learning activity needs to be considered as well.…

Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

PubMed

Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian

2003-03-01

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birnbaum, Michael H.

2008-01-01

During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…

What Is True Halving in the Payoff Matrix of Game Theory?

PubMed Central

Hasegawa, Eisuke; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

In game theory, there are two social interpretations of rewards (payoffs) for decision-making strategies: (1) the interpretation based on the utility criterion derived from expected utility theory and (2) the interpretation based on the quantitative criterion (amount of gain) derived from validity in the empirical context. A dynamic decision theory has recently been developed in which dynamic utility is a conditional (state) variable that is a function of the current wealth of a decision maker. We applied dynamic utility to the equal division in dove-dove contests in the hawk-dove game. Our results indicate that under the utility criterion, the half-share of utility becomes proportional to a player’s current wealth. Our results are consistent with studies of the sense of fairness in animals, which indicate that the quantitative criterion has greater validity than the utility criterion. We also find that traditional analyses of repeated games must be reevaluated. PMID:27487194

What Is True Halving in the Payoff Matrix of Game Theory?

PubMed

Ito, Hiromu; Katsumata, Yuki; Hasegawa, Eisuke; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

In game theory, there are two social interpretations of rewards (payoffs) for decision-making strategies: (1) the interpretation based on the utility criterion derived from expected utility theory and (2) the interpretation based on the quantitative criterion (amount of gain) derived from validity in the empirical context. A dynamic decision theory has recently been developed in which dynamic utility is a conditional (state) variable that is a function of the current wealth of a decision maker. We applied dynamic utility to the equal division in dove-dove contests in the hawk-dove game. Our results indicate that under the utility criterion, the half-share of utility becomes proportional to a player's current wealth. Our results are consistent with studies of the sense of fairness in animals, which indicate that the quantitative criterion has greater validity than the utility criterion. We also find that traditional analyses of repeated games must be reevaluated.

Utility function under decision theory: A construction arbitration application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alozn, Ahmad E.; Galadari, Abdulla

2017-08-01

While a wide range of dispute resolution mechanisms exist, practitioners favor legally binding ones such as litigation and arbitration. Since initiating a litigation or arbitration case against a business partner may dissolve the business relationship between them, predicting the arbitrator's decision becomes valuable to the arbitrating parties. This paper proposes a construction-specific utility framework for the arbitrating party through decision theory, and based on expected utility theory. The proposed framework preserves the industry practicality and most importantly, considers direct short-term factors and indirect long-term factors as well. It is suggested that the arbitrating parties' utility functions could be then used to identify equilibrium points among them when interact via game theory principles, which would serve the purpose of predicting the arbitration outcome.

Expected utility violations evolve under status-based selection mechanisms.

PubMed

Dickson, Eric S

2008-10-07

The expected utility theory of decision making under uncertainty, a cornerstone of modern economics, assumes that humans linearly weight "utilities" for different possible outcomes by the probabilities with which these outcomes occur. Despite the theory's intuitive appeal, both from normative and from evolutionary perspectives, many experiments demonstrate systematic, though poorly understood, patterns of deviation from EU predictions. This paper offers a novel theoretical account of such patterns of deviation by demonstrating that EU violations can emerge from evolutionary selection when individual "status" affects inclusive fitness. In humans, battles for resources and social standing involve high-stakes decision making, and assortative mating ensures that status matters for fitness outcomes. The paper therefore proposes grounding the study of decision making under uncertainty in an evolutionary game-theoretic framework.

Beyond expected utility: rethinking behavioral decision research.

PubMed

Frisch, D; Clemen, R T

1994-07-01

Much research in psychology has evaluated the quality of people's decisions by comparisons with subjective expected utility (SEU) theory. This article suggests that typical arguments made for the status of utility theory as normative do not justify its use by psychologists as a standard by which to evaluate decision quality. It is argued that to evaluate decision quality, researchers need to identify those decision processes that tend to lead to desirable outcomes. It is contended that a good decision-making process must be concerned with how (and whether) decision makers evaluate potential consequences of decisions, the extent to which they accurately identify all relevant consequences, and the way in which they make final choices. Research that bears on these issues is reviewed.

Teaching Prospect Theory with the "Deal or No Deal" Game Show

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Ardith; Bittner, Teresa; Makrigeorgis, Christos; Johnson, Gloria; Haefner, Joseph

2010-01-01

Recent evidence indicates that decision makers are more sensitive to potential losses than gains. Loss aversion psychology has led behavioural economists to look beyond expected utility by developing "prospect theory." We demonstrate this theory using the "Deal or No Deal" game show.

Testing rank-dependent utility theory for health outcomes.

PubMed

Oliver, Adam

2003-10-01

Systematic violations of expected utility theory (EU) have been reported in the context of both money and health outcomes. Rank-dependent utility theory (RDU) is currently the most popular and influential alternative theory of choice under circumstances of risk. This paper reports a test of the descriptive performance of RDU compared to EU in the context of health. When one of the options is certain, violations of EU that can be explained by RDU are found. When both options are risky, no evidence that RDU is a descriptive improvement over EU is found, though this finding may be due to the low power of the tests. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prospect theory in the valuation of health.

PubMed

Moffett, Maurice L; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E

2005-08-01

Prospect theory is the prominent nonexpected utility theory in the estimation of health state preference scores for quality-adjusted life year calculation. Until recently, the theory was not considered to be developed to the point of implementation in economic analysis. This review focuses on the research and evidence that tests the implementation of prospect theory into health state valuation. The typical application of expected utility theory assumes that a decision maker has stable preferences under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Under prospect theory, preferences are dependent on whether the decision maker regards the outcome of a choice as a gain or loss, relative to a reference point. The conceptual preference for standard gamble utilities in the valuation of health states has led to the development of elicitation techniques. Empirical evidence using these techniques indicates that when individual preferences are elicited, a prospect theory consistent framework appears to be necessary for adequate representation of individual health utilities. The relevance of prospect theory to policy making and resource allocation remains to be established. Societal preferences may not need the same attitudes towards risks as individual preferences, and may remain largely risk neutral.

Illustrating Caffeine's Pharmacological and Expectancy Effects Utilizing a Balanced Placebo Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lotshaw, Sandra C.; And Others

1996-01-01

Hypothesizes that pharmacological and expectancy effects may be two principles that govern caffeine consumption in the same way they affect other drug use. Tests this theory through a balanced placebo design on 100 male undergraduate students. Expectancy set and caffeine content appeared equally powerful, and worked additionally, to affect…

Computer-Based Career Interventions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mau, Wei-Cheng

The possible utilities and limitations of computer-assisted career guidance systems (CACG) have been widely discussed although the effectiveness of CACG has not been systematically considered. This paper investigates the effectiveness of a theory-based CACG program, integrating Sequential Elimination and Expected Utility strategies. Three types of…

A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

PubMed

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

The Role of Self-Determination Theory in Explaining Teachers' Motivation to Continue to Use E-Learning Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sorebo, Oystein; Halvari, Hallgier; Gulli, Vebjorn Flaata; Kristiansen, Roar

2009-01-01

Based on self-determination theory, this study proposes an extended information systems continuance theory in the context of teachers' utilization of e-learning technology in connection with on-site courses. In the proposed model teachers' extrinsic motivation (i.e. perceived usefulness), confirmation of pre-acceptance expectations and intrinsic…

Neural response to reward anticipation under risk is nonlinear in probabilities.

PubMed

Hsu, Ming; Krajbich, Ian; Zhao, Chen; Camerer, Colin F

2009-02-18

A widely observed phenomenon in decision making under risk is the apparent overweighting of unlikely events and the underweighting of nearly certain events. This violates standard assumptions in expected utility theory, which requires that expected utility be linear (objective) in probabilities. Models such as prospect theory have relaxed this assumption and introduced the notion of a "probability weighting function," which captures the key properties found in experimental data. This study reports functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data that neural response to expected reward is nonlinear in probabilities. Specifically, we found that activity in the striatum during valuation of monetary gambles are nonlinear in probabilities in the pattern predicted by prospect theory, suggesting that probability distortion is reflected at the level of the reward encoding process. The degree of nonlinearity reflected in individual subjects' decisions is also correlated with striatal activity across subjects. Our results shed light on the neural mechanisms of reward processing, and have implications for future neuroscientific studies of decision making involving extreme tails of the distribution, where probability weighting provides an explanation for commonly observed behavioral anomalies.

A longitudinal study of the effects of dual-earner couples' utilization of family-friendly workplace supports on work and family outcomes.

PubMed

Hammer, Leslie B; Neal, Margaret B; Newsom, Jason T; Brockwood, Krista J; Colton, Cari L

2005-07-01

Little research exists on the effects of the utilization of workplace supports on work-family conflict and job satisfaction. With family systems theory as a framework, 2 waves of national survey data were collected from 234 couples (N = 468) caring for children and for aging parents. Data were analyzed with structural equation modeling techniques. Longitudinal results indicate that individuals' use of workplace supports was related to work-family conflict in the direction opposite to expectations and was related to job satisfaction in the direction consistent with expectations. Differential effects for wives versus husbands were found. In addition, couples' use of workplace supports was only minimally related to wives' outcomes. Results are discussed in terms of gender differences, family systems theory, and methodological and measurement issues related to the longitudinal study of utilization of workplace supports. Copyright 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

On the Teaching of Portfolio Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biederman, Daniel K.

1992-01-01

Demonstrates how a simple portfolio problem expressed explicitly as an expected utility maximization problem can be used to instruct students in portfolio theory. Discusses risk aversion, decision making under uncertainty, and the limitations of the traditional mean variance approach. Suggests students may develop a greater appreciation of general…

Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

2016-04-01

Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Current maternal age recommendations for prenatal diagnosis: a reappraisal using the expected utility theory.

PubMed

Sicherman, N; Bombard, A T; Rappoport, P

1995-01-01

The expected utility theory suggests eliminating an age-specific criterion for recommending prenatal diagnosis to patients. We isolate the factors which patients and physicians need to consider intelligently in prenatal diagnosis, and show that the sole use of a threshold age as a screening device is inadequate. Such a threshold fails to consider adequately patients' attitudes regarding many of the possible outcomes of prenatal diagnosis; in particular, the birth of a chromosomally abnormal child and procedural-related miscarriages. It also precludes testing younger women and encourages testing in patients who do not necessarily require or desire it. All pregnant women should be informed about their prenatal diagnosis options, screening techniques, and diagnostic procedures, including their respective limitations, risks, and benefits.

Decision Making in the Short Run.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lopes, Lola L.

1981-01-01

The commonly accepted idea that the only rational measure of the worth of a gamble is its expected value or some subjective counterpart such as expected utility is examined. Also discussed are the changes called for in theories of rational choice when prescriptions of rational models violate common sense. (Author/GK)

The Modification of Age-Specific Expectations of Piaget's Theory of Development of Intentionality in Moral Judgments of Four- to Seven-Year Old Children in Relation to Use of Puppets in a Social (Imitative) Learning Paradigm.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeves, John M.; Michael, William B.

The purpose of this investigation was to ascertain whether the age specific expectations of Piaget's theory (1965) regarding the development of moral judgment in children from four to seven years of age were modifiable through use of a certain adaptation of Bandura and McDonald's imitative learning paradigm which had utilized adult models. In this…

The Probabilistic Nature of Preferential Choice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rieskamp, Jorg

2008-01-01

Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes…

Selecting Items for Criterion-Referenced Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellenbergh, Gideon J.; van der Linden, Wim J.

1982-01-01

Three item selection methods for criterion-referenced tests are examined: the classical theory of item difficulty and item-test correlation; the latent trait theory of item characteristic curves; and a decision-theoretic approach for optimal item selection. Item contribution to the standardized expected utility of mastery testing is discussed. (CM)

Reason and reaction: the utility of a dual-focus, dual-processing perspective on promotion and prevention of adolescent health risk behaviour.

PubMed

Gibbons, Frederick X; Houlihan, Amy E; Gerrard, Meg

2009-05-01

A brief overview of theories of health behaviour that are based on the expectancy-value perspective is presented. This approach maintains that health behaviours are the result of a deliberative decision-making process that involves consideration of behavioural options along with anticipated outcomes associated with those options. It is argued that this perspective is effective at explaining and predicting many types of health behaviour, including health-promoting actions (e.g. UV protection, condom use, smoking cessation), but less effective at predicting risky health behaviours, such as unprotected, casual sex, drunk driving or binge drinking. These are behaviours that are less reasoned or premeditated - especially among adolescents. An argument is made for incorporating elements of dual-processing theories in an effort to improve the 'utility' of these models. Specifically, it is suggested that adolescent health behaviour involves both analytic and heuristic processing. Both types of processing are incorporated in the prototype-willingness (prototype) model, which is described in some detail. Studies of health behaviour based on the expectancy-value perspective (e.g. theory of reasoned action) are reviewed, along with studies based on the prototype model. These two sets of studies together suggest that the dual-processing perspective, in general, and the prototype model, in particular, add to the predictive validity of expectancy-value models for predicting adolescent health behaviour. Research and interventions that incorporate elements of dual-processing and elements of expectancy-value are more effective at explaining and changing adolescent health behaviour than are those based on expectancy-value theories alone.

Making Connections: Replicating and Extending the Utility Value Intervention in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hulleman, Chris S.; Kosovich, Jeff J.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Daniel, David B.

2017-01-01

We replicated and extended prior research investigating a theoretically guided intervention based on expectancy-value theory designed to enhance student learning outcomes (e.g., Hulleman & Harackiewicz, 2009). First, we replicated prior work by demonstrating that the utility value intervention, which manipulated whether students made…

Acceptable regret in medical decision making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, B; Hozo, I; Schwartz, A; McMasters, K M

1999-09-01

When faced with medical decisions involving uncertain outcomes, the principles of decision theory hold that we should select the option with the highest expected utility to maximize health over time. Whether a decision proves right or wrong can be learned only in retrospect, when it may become apparent that another course of action would have been preferable. This realization may bring a sense of loss, or regret. When anticipated regret is compelling, a decision maker may choose to violate expected utility theory to avoid regret. We formulate a concept of acceptable regret in medical decision making that explicitly introduces the patient's attitude toward loss of health due to a mistaken decision into decision making. In most cases, minimizing expected regret results in the same decision as maximizing expected utility. However, when acceptable regret is taken into consideration, the threshold probability below which we can comfortably withhold treatment is a function only of the net benefit of the treatment, and the threshold probability above which we can comfortably administer the treatment depends only on the magnitude of the risks associated with the therapy. By considering acceptable regret, we develop new conceptual relations that can help decide whether treatment should be withheld or administered, especially when the diagnosis is uncertain. This may be particularly beneficial in deciding what constitutes futile medical care.

Deriving the expected utility of a predictive model when the utilities are uncertain.

PubMed

Cooper, Gregory F; Visweswaran, Shyam

2005-01-01

Predictive models are often constructed from clinical databases with the goal of eventually helping make better clinical decisions. Evaluating models using decision theory is therefore natural. When constructing a model using statistical and machine learning methods, however, we are often uncertain about precisely how the model will be used. Thus, decision-independent measures of classification performance, such as the area under an ROC curve, are popular. As a complementary method of evaluation, we investigate techniques for deriving the expected utility of a model under uncertainty about the model's utilities. We demonstrate an example of the application of this approach to the evaluation of two models that diagnose coronary artery disease.

Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

PubMed

Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

2012-12-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

PubMed

Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

2013-02-01

Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models.

Anticipating Father Reentry: A Qualitative Study of Children's and Mothers' Experiences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yocum, Annie; Nath, Sanjay

2011-01-01

Utilizing a grounded theory analysis of interviews with 17 children and their 8 mothers anticipating a father's prison release within 12 months, the authors propose a theory of participants' experiences, focused on the child-father aspects of reentry. Among other expectations, all participants wanted fathers to be involved with the children after…

Prospect theory in the health domain: a quantitative assessment.

PubMed

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; I'Haridon, Olivier

2013-12-01

It is well-known that expected utility (EU) has empirical deficiencies. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) has developed as an alternative with more descriptive validity. However, CPT's full function had not yet been quantified in the health domain. This paper is therefore the first to simultaneously measure utility of life duration, probability weighting, and loss aversion in this domain. We observe loss aversion and risk aversion for gains and losses, which for gains can be explained by probabilistic pessimism. Utility for gains is almost linear. For losses, we find less weighting of probability 1/2 and concave utility. This contrasts with the common finding of convex utility for monetary losses. However, CPT was proposed to explain choices among lotteries involving monetary outcomes. Life years are arguably very different from monetary outcomes and need not generate convex utility for losses. Moreover, utility of life duration reflects discounting, causing concave utility. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a social cognitive theory-based yoga intervention to reduce anxiety.

PubMed

Mehta, Purvi; Sharma, Manoj

Yoga is often viewed as a form of alternative and complementary medicine, as it strives to achieve equilibrium between the body and mind that aids healing. Studies have shown the beneficial role of yoga in anxiety reduction. The purpose of this study was to design and evaluate a 10-week social cognitive theory based yoga intervention to reduce anxiety. The yoga intervention utilized the constructs of behavioral capability, expectations, self-efficacy for yoga from social cognitive theory, and included asanas (postures), pranayama (breathing techniques), shava asana (relaxation), and dhyana (meditation). A one-between and one-within group, quasi-experimental design was utilized for evaluation. Scales measuring expectations from yoga, self-efficacy for yoga, and Speilberger's State Trait Anxiety Inventory, were administered before and after the intervention. Repeated measures analyses of variance (ANOVA) were performed to compare pre-test and post-test scores in the two groups. Yoga as an approach shows promising results for anxiety reduction.

Decision making generalized by a cumulative probability weighting function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

dos Santos, Lindomar Soares; Destefano, Natália; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2018-01-01

Typical examples of intertemporal decision making involve situations in which individuals must choose between a smaller reward, but more immediate, and a larger one, delivered later. Analogously, probabilistic decision making involves choices between options whose consequences differ in relation to their probability of receiving. In Economics, the expected utility theory (EUT) and the discounted utility theory (DUT) are traditionally accepted normative models for describing, respectively, probabilistic and intertemporal decision making. A large number of experiments confirmed that the linearity assumed by the EUT does not explain some observed behaviors, as nonlinear preference, risk-seeking and loss aversion. That observation led to the development of new theoretical models, called non-expected utility theories (NEUT), which include a nonlinear transformation of the probability scale. An essential feature of the so-called preference function of these theories is that the probabilities are transformed by decision weights by means of a (cumulative) probability weighting function, w(p) . We obtain in this article a generalized function for the probabilistic discount process. This function has as particular cases mathematical forms already consecrated in the literature, including discount models that consider effects of psychophysical perception. We also propose a new generalized function for the functional form of w. The limiting cases of this function encompass some parametric forms already proposed in the literature. Far beyond a mere generalization, our function allows the interpretation of probabilistic decision making theories based on the assumption that individuals behave similarly in the face of probabilities and delays and is supported by phenomenological models.

Multiattribute Fixed-State Utility Assessment.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-27

of a companion distribution, are presented in Appendix A. Because of the theory of conditional expected utility and the modelling of the utilities by...obtain approximations to the moments, using the companion V ) ) distribution discussed in Section 3. The moments of both distributions are discussed...1956b, 21, 207-216. Slavic, P. "From Shakespeare to Simon: Speculation -- and some evidence -- about man’s ability to process information." O g . a

The discrepancy between risky and riskless utilities: a matter of framing?

PubMed

Stalmeier, P F; Bezembinder, T G

1999-01-01

Utilities differ according to whether they are derived from risky (gamble) and riskless (visual analog scale, time-tradeoff) assessment methods. The discrepancies are usually explained by assuming that the utilities elicited by risky methods incorporate attitudes towards risk, whereas riskless utilities do not. In (cumulative) prospect theory, risk attitude is conceived as consisting of two components: a decision-weight function (attentiveness to changes in, or sensitivity towards, chance) and a utility function (sensitivity towards outcomes). The authors' data suggest that a framing effect is a hitherto unrecognized and important factor in causing discrepancies between risky and riskless utilities. They collected risky evaluations with the gamble method, and riskless evaluations with difference measurement. Risky utilities were derived using expected-utility theory and prospect theory. With the latter approach, sensitivity towards outcomes and sensitivity towards chance are modeled separately. When the hypothesis that risky utilities from prospect theory coincide with riskless utilities was tested, it was rejected (n = 8, F(1,7) = 132, p = 0.000), suggesting that a correction for sensitivity towards chance is not sufficient to resolve the difference between risky and riskless utilities. Next, it was assumed that different gain/loss frames are induced by risky and riskless elicitation methods. Indeed, identical utility functions were obtained when the gain/loss frames were made identical across methods (n = 7), suggesting that framing was operative. The results suggest that risky and riskless utilities are identical after corrections for sensitivity towards chance and framing.

Constructivism and Reflectivism as the Logical Counterparts in TESOL: Learning Theory versus Teaching Methodology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

al Mahmud, Abdullah

2013-01-01

The gist of the entire constructivist learning theory is that learners are self-builders of their learning that occurs through a mental process in a social context or communication setting, and teachers as facilitators generate learning by creating the expected environment and/or utilizing the process. This article theoretically proves…

Do juries meet our expectations?

PubMed

Arkes, Hal R; Mellers, Barbara A

2002-12-01

Surveys of public opinion indicate that people have high expectations for juries. When it comes to serious crimes, most people want errors of convicting the innocent (false positives) or acquitting the guilty (false negatives) to fall well below 10%. Using expected utility theory, Bayes' Theorem, signal detection theory, and empirical evidence from detection studies of medical decision making, eyewitness testimony, and weather forecasting, we argue that the frequency of mistakes probably far exceeds these "tolerable" levels. We are not arguing against the use of juries. Rather, we point out that a closer look at jury decisions reveals a serious gap between what we expect from juries and what probably occurs. When deciding issues of guilt and/or punishing convicted criminals, we as a society should recognize and acknowledge the abundance of error.

Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

PubMed Central

Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

Judging Statistical Models of Individual Decision Making under Risk Using In- and Out-of-Sample Criteria

PubMed Central

Drichoutis, Andreas C.; Lusk, Jayson L.

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample. PMID:25029467

Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

PubMed

Drichoutis, Andreas C; Lusk, Jayson L

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

Optimal Resource Allocation in Library Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouse, William B.

1975-01-01

Queueing theory is used to model processes as either waiting or balking processes. The optimal allocation of resources to these processes is defined as that which maximizes the expected value of the decision-maker's utility function. (Author)

[Expectations of hospital administrators about administrative functions of nurses].

PubMed

Melo, M R; Fávero, N; Trevizan, M A; Hayashida, M

1996-01-01

The objective of the present study was to investigate hospital administrator's expectations about the administrative role played by nurses, utilizing functions proposed by the Neoclassical Theory of Administration: planning, organization, direction, and control as theoretical references. An instrument established in TREVIZAN (1989) was applied to 11 hospital administrators. The results showed they expect the four functions to be done by nurses. Therefore, the interaction between nurses and hospital administrators is critical to improve the patient's assistance.

Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

2012-09-03

Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the large extent dominated by expected utility theory. The model also provides a platform for reconciling two groups of competing dual processing theories (parallel competitive with default-interventionalist theories).

Brief Report: An Independent Replication and Extension of Psychometric Evidence Supporting the Theory of Mind Inventory.

PubMed

Greenslade, Kathryn J; Coggins, Truman E

2016-08-01

This study presents an independent replication and extension of psychometric evidence supporting the Theory of Mind Inventory (ToMI). Parents of 20 children with ASD (4; 1-6; 7 years; months) and 20 with typical development (3; 1-6; 5), rated their child's theory of mind abilities in everyday situations. Other parent report and child behavioral assessments included the Social Responsiveness Scale-2, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-2, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-4, and Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals-Preschool, 2. Results revealed high internal consistency, expected developmental changes in children with typical development, expected group differences between children with and without ASD, and strong correlations with other measures of social and communication abilities. The ToMI demonstrates strong psychometrics, suggesting considerable utility in identifying theory of mind deficits in children with ASD.

Model of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Acceptance and Use for Teaching Staff in Sub-Saharan Africa Public Higher Education Institutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ouedraogo, Boukary

2017-01-01

This article uses data survey on 82 teachers from the University of Ouagadougou and the model of unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) to assess the determinants of acceptance and educational use of ICT by teachers. The paper's outcomes show that the construct "performance expectancy" of ICT (expected utility and…

Decision Making Analysis: Critical Factors-Based Methodology

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders

Rough Set Theory based prognostication of life expectancy for terminally ill patients.

PubMed

Gil-Herrera, Eleazar; Yalcin, Ali; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Barnes, Laura E; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2011-01-01

We present a novel knowledge discovery methodology that relies on Rough Set Theory to predict the life expectancy of terminally ill patients in an effort to improve the hospice referral process. Life expectancy prognostication is particularly valuable for terminally ill patients since it enables them and their families to initiate end-of-life discussions and choose the most desired management strategy for the remainder of their lives. We utilize retrospective data from 9105 patients to demonstrate the design and implementation details of a series of classifiers developed to identify potential hospice candidates. Preliminary results confirm the efficacy of the proposed methodology. We envision our work as a part of a comprehensive decision support system designed to assist terminally ill patients in making end-of-life care decisions.

Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2018-02-01

Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. We compare the derivations of the EUT- and ERG-based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: "treat none," "treat all," or "use model" to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account

PubMed Central

Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios

2016-01-01

Abstract Rationale, aims, and objectives Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. Methods We compare the derivations of the EUT‐ and ERG‐based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: “treat none,” “treat all,” or “use model” to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Results Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. Conclusion EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. PMID:27981695

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the large extent dominated by expected utility theory. The model also provides a platform for reconciling two groups of competing dual processing theories (parallel competitive with default-interventionalist theories). PMID:22943520

Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gati, Itamar

1986-01-01

Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

From Wald to Savage: homo economicus becomes a Bayesian statistician.

PubMed

Giocoli, Nicola

2013-01-01

Bayesian rationality is the paradigm of rational behavior in neoclassical economics. An economic agent is deemed rational when she maximizes her subjective expected utility and consistently revises her beliefs according to Bayes's rule. The paper raises the question of how, when and why this characterization of rationality came to be endorsed by mainstream economists. Though no definitive answer is provided, it is argued that the question is of great historiographic importance. The story begins with Abraham Wald's behaviorist approach to statistics and culminates with Leonard J. Savage's elaboration of subjective expected utility theory in his 1954 classic The Foundations of Statistics. The latter's acknowledged fiasco to achieve a reinterpretation of traditional inference techniques along subjectivist and behaviorist lines raises the puzzle of how a failed project in statistics could turn into such a big success in economics. Possible answers call into play the emphasis on consistency requirements in neoclassical theory and the impact of the postwar transformation of U.S. business schools. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Toward a Responsibility-Catering Prioritarian Ethical Theory of Risk.

PubMed

Wikman-Svahn, Per; Lindblom, Lars

2018-03-05

Standard tools used in societal risk management such as probabilistic risk analysis or cost-benefit analysis typically define risks in terms of only probabilities and consequences and assume a utilitarian approach to ethics that aims to maximize expected utility. The philosopher Carl F. Cranor has argued against this view by devising a list of plausible aspects of the acceptability of risks that points towards a non-consequentialist ethical theory of societal risk management. This paper revisits Cranor's list to argue that the alternative ethical theory responsibility-catering prioritarianism can accommodate the aspects identified by Cranor and that the elements in the list can be used to inform the details of how to view risks within this theory. An approach towards operationalizing the theory is proposed based on a prioritarian social welfare function that operates on responsibility-adjusted utilities. A responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical approach towards managing risks is a promising alternative to standard tools such as cost-benefit analysis.

Calibrating and adjusting expectations in life: A grounded theory on how elderly persons with somatic health problems maintain control and balance in life and optimize well-being

PubMed Central

Helvik, Anne-Sofie; Iversen, Valentina Cabral; Steiring, Randi; Hallberg, Lillemor R-M

2011-01-01

Aim This study aims at exploring the main concern for elderly individuals with somatic health problems and what they do to manage this. Method In total, 14 individuals (mean=74.2 years; range=68–86 years) of both gender including hospitalized and outpatient persons participated in the study. Open interviews were conducted and analyzed according to grounded theory, an inductive theory-generating method. Results The main concern for the elderly individuals with somatic health problems was identified as their striving to maintain control and balance in life. The analysis ended up in a substantive theory explaining how elderly individuals with somatic disease were calibrating and adjusting their expectations in life in order to adapt to their reduced energy level, health problems, and aging. By adjusting the expectations to their actual abilities, the elderly can maintain a sense of that they still have the control over their lives and create stability. The ongoing adjustment process is facilitated by different strategies and result despite lower expectations in subjective well-being. The facilitating strategies are utilizing the network of important others, enjoying cultural heritage, being occupied with interests, having a mission to fulfill, improving the situation by limiting boundaries and, finally, creating meaning in everyday life. Conclusion The main concern of the elderly with somatic health problems was to maintain control and balance in life. The emerging theory explains how elderly people with somatic health problems calibrate their expectations of life in order to adjust to reduced energy, health problems, and aging. This process is facilitated by different strategies and result despite lower expectation in subjective well-being. PMID:21468299

Beyond statistical inference: A decision theory for science

PubMed Central

KILLEEN, PETER R.

2008-01-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests—which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude—as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r2 and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute. PMID:17201351

Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science.

PubMed

Killeen, Peter R

2006-08-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests--which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude--as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r2 and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute.

Picture-Word Differences and Conceptual Frequency Judgments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Joel R.; And Others

Recent evidence suggests that whereas pictures are more easily recognized, discriminated, associated, and recalled than their corresponding verbal labels, this is not the case in concept acquisition/utilization tasks. If such evidence is interpreted in terms of a "frequency theory" perspective, one would expect the typically obtained…

Program Monitoring: Problems and Cases.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundin, Edward; Welty, Gordon

Designed as the major component of a comprehensive model of educational management, a behavioral model of decision making is presented that approximates the synoptic model of neoclassical economic theory. The synoptic model defines all possible alternatives and provides a basis for choosing that alternative which maximizes expected utility. The…

A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tague, Jean M.

1973-01-01

A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…

Cooperation, psychological game theory, and limitations of rationality in social interaction.

PubMed

Colman, Andrew M

2003-04-01

Rational choice theory enjoys unprecedented popularity and influence in the behavioral and social sciences, but it generates intractable problems when applied to socially interactive decisions. In individual decisions, instrumental rationality is defined in terms of expected utility maximization. This becomes problematic in interactive decisions, when individuals have only partial control over the outcomes, because expected utility maximization is undefined in the absence of assumptions about how the other participants will behave. Game theory therefore incorporates not only rationality but also common knowledge assumptions, enabling players to anticipate their co-players' strategies. Under these assumptions, disparate anomalies emerge. Instrumental rationality, conventionally interpreted, fails to explain intuitively obvious features of human interaction, yields predictions starkly at variance with experimental findings, and breaks down completely in certain cases. In particular, focal point selection in pure coordination games is inexplicable, though it is easily achieved in practice; the intuitively compelling payoff-dominance principle lacks rational justification; rationality in social dilemmas is self-defeating; a key solution concept for cooperative coalition games is frequently inapplicable; and rational choice in certain sequential games generates contradictions. In experiments, human players behave more cooperatively and receive higher payoffs than strict rationality would permit. Orthodox conceptions of rationality are evidently internally deficient and inadequate for explaining human interaction. Psychological game theory, based on nonstandard assumptions, is required to solve these problems, and some suggestions along these lines have already been put forward.

The temporal derivative of expected utility: a neural mechanism for dynamic decision-making.

PubMed

Zhang, Xian; Hirsch, Joy

2013-01-15

Real world tasks involving moving targets, such as driving a vehicle, are performed based on continuous decisions thought to depend upon the temporal derivative of the expected utility (∂V/∂t), where the expected utility (V) is the effective value of a future reward. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie dynamic decision-making are not well understood. This study investigates human neural correlates of both V and ∂V/∂t using fMRI and a novel experimental paradigm based on a pursuit-evasion game optimized to isolate components of dynamic decision processes. Our behavioral data show that players of the pursuit-evasion game adopt an exponential discounting function, supporting the expected utility theory. The continuous functions of V and ∂V/∂t were derived from the behavioral data and applied as regressors in fMRI analysis, enabling temporal resolution that exceeded the sampling rate of image acquisition, hyper-temporal resolution, by taking advantage of numerous trials that provide rich and independent manipulation of those variables. V and ∂V/∂t were each associated with distinct neural activity. Specifically, ∂V/∂t was associated with anterior and posterior cingulate cortices, superior parietal lobule, and ventral pallidum, whereas V was primarily associated with supplementary motor, pre and post central gyri, cerebellum, and thalamus. The association between the ∂V/∂t and brain regions previously related to decision-making is consistent with the primary role of the temporal derivative of expected utility in dynamic decision-making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Temporal Derivative of Expected Utility: A Neural Mechanism for Dynamic Decision-making

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xian; Hirsch, Joy

2012-01-01

Real world tasks involving moving targets, such as driving a vehicle, are performed based on continuous decisions thought to depend upon the temporal derivative of the expected utility (∂V/∂t), where the expected utility (V) is the effective value of a future reward. However, those neural mechanisms that underlie dynamic decision-making are not well understood. This study investigates human neural correlates of both V and ∂V/∂t using fMRI and a novel experimental paradigm based on a pursuit-evasion game optimized to isolate components of dynamic decision processes. Our behavioral data show that players of the pursuit-evasion game adopt an exponential discounting function, supporting the expected utility theory. The continuous functions of V and ∂V/∂t were derived from the behavioral data and applied as regressors in fMRI analysis, enabling temporal resolution that exceeded the sampling rate of image acquisition, hyper-temporal resolution, by taking advantage of numerous trials that provide rich and independent manipulation of those variables. V and ∂V/∂t were each associated with distinct neural activity. Specifically, ∂V/∂t was associated with anterior and posterior cingulate cortices, superior parietal lobule, and ventral pallidum, whereas V was primarily associated with supplementary motor, pre and post central gyri, cerebellum, and thalamus. The association between the ∂V/∂t and brain regions previously related to decision-making is consistent with the primary role of the temporal derivative of expected utility in dynamic decision-making. PMID:22963852

Utility as a rationale for choosing observer performance assessment paradigms for detection tasks in medical imaging.

PubMed

Wunderlich, Adam; Abbey, Craig K

2013-11-01

Studies of lesion detectability are often carried out to evaluate medical imaging technology. For such studies, several approaches have been proposed to measure observer performance, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), the localization ROC (LROC), the free-response ROC (FROC), the alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and the exponentially transformed FROC (EFROC) paradigms. Therefore, an experimenter seeking to carry out such a study is confronted with an array of choices. Traditionally, arguments for different approaches have been made on the basis of practical considerations (statistical power, etc.) or the gross level of analysis (case-level or lesion-level). This article contends that a careful consideration of utility should form the rationale for matching the assessment paradigm to the clinical task of interest. In utility theory, task performance is commonly evaluated with total expected utility, which integrates the various event utilities against the probability of each event. To formalize the relationship between expected utility and the summary curve associated with each assessment paradigm, the concept of a "natural" utility structure is proposed. A natural utility structure is defined for a summary curve when the variables associated with the summary curve axes are sufficient for computing total expected utility, assuming that the disease prevalence is known. Natural utility structures for ROC, LROC, FROC, AFROC, and EFROC curves are introduced, clarifying how the utilities of correct and incorrect decisions are aggregated by summary curves. Further, conditions are given under which general utility structures for localization-based methodologies reduce to case-based assessment. Overall, the findings reveal how summary curves correspond to natural utility structures of diagnostic tasks, suggesting utility as a motivating principle for choosing an assessment paradigm.

Factors Involved in Juveniles' Decisions about Crime.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cimler, Edward; Beach, Lee Roy

1981-01-01

Investigated whether delinquency is the result of a rational decision. The Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) model from decision theory was used with male juvenile offenders (N=45) as the model of the decision process. Results showed that the SEU model predicted 62.7 percent of the subjects' decisions. (Author/RC)

Relevance of a Managerial Decision-Model to Educational Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundin, Edward.; Welty, Gordon

The rational model of classical economic theory assumes that the decision maker has complete information on alternatives and consequences, and that he chooses the alternative that maximizes expected utility. This model does not allow for constraints placed on the decision maker resulting from lack of information, organizational pressures,…

Utilizing Modality Theory to Achieve Academic Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lister, Dena; Ansalone, George

2006-01-01

Education accompanied by social mobility is the cornerstone of the American dream. Yet, each year scores of children, especially those from the underprivileged class, fail to meet even the most modest academic expectations and subsequently never reach their academic potential. This research rejects earlier explanations of academic failure and…

Adolescent-Perceived Parent and Teacher Overestimation of Mathematics Ability: Developmental Implications for Students' Mathematics Task Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gniewosz, Burkhard; Watt, Helen M. G.

2017-01-01

This study examines whether and how student-perceived parents' and teachers' overestimation of students' own perceived mathematical ability can explain trajectories for adolescents' mathematical task values (intrinsic and utility) controlling for measured achievement, following expectancy-value and self-determination theories. Longitudinal data…

Expectancy beliefs and perceived values of Chinese college students in physical education and physical activity.

PubMed

Chen, Ang; Liu, Xinlan

2008-03-01

The expectancy-value theory postulates that motivation relies on individuals' beliefs of success, perceived Attainment, Intrinsic Interest, and Utility values and Cost. This study examined Chinese college students' expectancy-value motivation in relation to physical education and self-initiated physical activity. A random sample of 368 Chinese university students responded to questionnaires on perceived expectancy beliefs, perceived values, and cost in terms of their experiences in mandatory physical education programs and in self-initiated after-school physical activity. They reported their choice decisions for continuing physical education. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, X2, logistic and linear regressions. The physical education curriculum was perceived as a major cost to motivation. Motivated by the Intrinsic Interest and Utility value, most students chose to continue to take physical education. Self-initiated after-school physical activity was motivated by the Attainment value only. No association was found between self-initiated physical activity and Liking or Disliking of physical education. Motivation for physical education and for self-initiated physical activity derived from different perceived values. The Attainment value motivates the students for self-initiated physical activity, whereas Intrinsic Interest and Utility values motivate them to choose to continue physical education.

Marital Expectations in Strong African American Marriages.

PubMed

Vaterlaus, J Mitchell; Skogrand, Linda; Chaney, Cassandra; Gahagan, Kassandra

2017-12-01

The current exploratory study utilized a family strengths framework to identify marital expectations in 39 strong African American heterosexual marriages. Couples reflected on their marital expectations over their 10 or more years of marriage. Three themes emerged through qualitative analysis and the participants' own words were used in the presentation of the themes. African Americans indicated that there was growth in marital expectations over time, with marital expectations often beginning with unrealistic expectations that grew into more realistic expectations as their marriages progressed. Participants also indicated that core expectations in strong African American marriages included open communication, congruent values, and positive treatment of spouse. Finally, participants explained there is an "I" in marriage as they discussed the importance of autonomy within their marital relationships. Results are discussed in association with existing research and theory. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Optimal joint detection and estimation that maximizes ROC-type curves

PubMed Central

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K.

2017-01-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation. PMID:27093544

Optimal Joint Detection and Estimation That Maximizes ROC-Type Curves.

PubMed

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K

2016-09-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation.

New paradoxes of risky decision making.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Michael H

2008-04-01

During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions. The new findings are consistent with and, in several cases, were predicted in advance by simple "configural weight" models in which probability-consequence branches are weighted by a function that depends on branch probability and ranks of consequences on discrete branches. Although they have some similarities to later models called "rank-dependent utility," configural weight models do not satisfy coalescing, the assumption that branches leading to the same consequence can be combined by adding their probabilities. Nor do they satisfy cancellation, the "independence" assumption that branches common to both alternatives can be removed. The transfer of attention exchange model, with parameters estimated from previous data, correctly predicts results with all 11 new paradoxes. Apparently, people do not frame choices as prospects but, instead, as trees with branches.

An application of prospect theory to a SHM-based decision problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolognani, Denise; Verzobio, Andrea; Tonelli, Daniel; Cappello, Carlo; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele

2017-04-01

Decision making investigates choices that have uncertain consequences and that cannot be completely predicted. Rational behavior may be described by the so-called expected utility theory (EUT), whose aim is to help choosing among several solutions to maximize the expectation of the consequences. However, Kahneman and Tversky developed an alternative model, called prospect theory (PT), showing that the basic axioms of EUT are violated in several instances. In respect of EUT, PT takes into account irrational behaviors and heuristic biases. It suggests an alternative approach, in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights, which are strictly related to the decision maker's preferences and may change for different individuals. In particular, people underestimate the utility of uncertain scenarios compared to outcomes obtained with certainty, and show inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. The goal of this paper is precisely to analyze a real case study involving a decision problem regarding the Streicker Bridge, a pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus. By modelling the manager of the bridge with the EUT first, and with PT later, we want to verify the differences between the two approaches and to investigate how the two models are sensitive to unpacking probabilities, which represent a common cognitive bias in irrational behaviors.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

PubMed

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc).

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc). PMID:20846413

Weight for Stephen Finlay.

PubMed

Evers, Daan

2013-04-01

According to Stephen Finlay, ' A ought to X ' means that X -ing is more conducive to contextually salient ends than relevant alternatives. This in turn is analysed in terms of probability. I show why this theory of 'ought' is hard to square with a theory of a reason's weight which could explain why ' A ought to X ' logically entails that the balance of reasons favours that A X -es. I develop two theories of weight to illustrate my point. I first look at the prospects of a theory of weight based on expected utility theory. I then suggest a simpler theory. Although neither allows that ' A ought to X ' logically entails that the balance of reasons favours that A X -es, this price may be accepted. For there remains a strong pragmatic relation between these claims.

Human-System Technology: Human-Robot Interaction to Address Critical Navy Needs of the Present and Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-31

Articles: Danks , D. "Psychological Theories of Categorization as Probabilistic Graphical Models," Journal of Mathematical Psychology, submitted. Kyburg...and when there is no set of competent and authorized humans available to make the decisions themselves. Ultimately, it is a matter of expected utility

Decisions Under Uncertainty III: Rationality Issues, Sex Stereotypes, and Sex Role Appropriateness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonoma, Thomas V.

The explanatory cornerstone of most currently viable social theories is a strict cost-gain assumption. The clearest formal explication of this view is contained in subjective expected utility models (SEU), in which individuals are assumed to scale their subjective likelihood estimates of decisional consequences and the personalistic worth or…

A model for plant lighting system selection.

PubMed

Ciolkosz, D E; Albright, L D; Sager, J C; Langhans, R W

2002-01-01

A decision model is presented that compares lighting systems for a plant growth scenario and chooses the most appropriate system from a given set of possible choices. The model utilizes a Multiple Attribute Utility Theory approach, and incorporates expert input and performance simulations to calculate a utility value for each lighting system being considered. The system with the highest utility is deemed the most appropriate system. The model was applied to a greenhouse scenario, and analyses were conducted to test the model's output for validity. Parameter variation indicates that the model performed as expected. Analysis of model output indicates that differences in utility among the candidate lighting systems were sufficiently large to give confidence that the model's order of selection was valid.

Dopamine Reward Prediction Error Responses Reflect Marginal Utility

PubMed Central

Stauffer, William R.; Lak, Armin; Schultz, Wolfram

2014-01-01

Summary Background Optimal choices require an accurate neuronal representation of economic value. In economics, utility functions are mathematical representations of subjective value that can be constructed from choices under risk. Utility usually exhibits a nonlinear relationship to physical reward value that corresponds to risk attitudes and reflects the increasing or decreasing marginal utility obtained with each additional unit of reward. Accordingly, neuronal reward responses coding utility should robustly reflect this nonlinearity. Results In two monkeys, we measured utility as a function of physical reward value from meaningful choices under risk (that adhered to first- and second-order stochastic dominance). The resulting nonlinear utility functions predicted the certainty equivalents for new gambles, indicating that the functions’ shapes were meaningful. The monkeys were risk seeking (convex utility function) for low reward and risk avoiding (concave utility function) with higher amounts. Critically, the dopamine prediction error responses at the time of reward itself reflected the nonlinear utility functions measured at the time of choices. In particular, the reward response magnitude depended on the first derivative of the utility function and thus reflected the marginal utility. Furthermore, dopamine responses recorded outside of the task reflected the marginal utility of unpredicted reward. Accordingly, these responses were sufficient to train reinforcement learning models to predict the behaviorally defined expected utility of gambles. Conclusions These data suggest a neuronal manifestation of marginal utility in dopamine neurons and indicate a common neuronal basis for fundamental explanatory constructs in animal learning theory (prediction error) and economic decision theory (marginal utility). PMID:25283778

Adolescent Contraceptive Use: Models, Research, and Directions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitley, Bernard E., Jr.; Schofield, Janet Ward

Both the career model and the decision model have been proposed to explain patterns of contraceptive use in teenagers. The career model views contraceptive use as a symbol of a woman's sexuality and implies a clear decision to be sexually active. The decision model is based on the subjective expected utility (SEU) theory which holds that people…

Many faces of rationality: Implications of the great rationality debate for clinical decision‐making

PubMed Central

Elqayam, Shira

2017-01-01

Abstract Given that more than 30% of healthcare costs are wasted on inappropriate care, suboptimal care is increasingly connected to the quality of medical decisions. It has been argued that personal decisions are the leading cause of death, and 80% of healthcare expenditures result from physicians' decisions. Therefore, improving healthcare necessitates improving medical decisions, ie, making decisions (more) rational. Drawing on writings from The Great Rationality Debate from the fields of philosophy, economics, and psychology, we identify core ingredients of rationality commonly encountered across various theoretical models. Rationality is typically classified under umbrella of normative (addressing the question how people “should” or “ought to” make their decisions) and descriptive theories of decision‐making (which portray how people actually make their decisions). Normative theories of rational thought of relevance to medicine include epistemic theories that direct practice of evidence‐based medicine and expected utility theory, which provides the basis for widely used clinical decision analyses. Descriptive theories of rationality of direct relevance to medical decision‐making include bounded rationality, argumentative theory of reasoning, adaptive rationality, dual processing model of rationality, regret‐based rationality, pragmatic/substantive rationality, and meta‐rationality. For the first time, we provide a review of wide range of theories and models of rationality. We showed that what is “rational” behaviour under one rationality theory may be irrational under the other theory. We also showed that context is of paramount importance to rationality and that no one model of rationality can possibly fit all contexts. We suggest that in context‐poor situations, such as policy decision‐making, normative theories based on expected utility informed by best research evidence may provide the optimal approach to medical decision‐making, whereas in the context‐rich circumstances other types of rationality, informed by human cognitive architecture and driven by intuition and emotions such as the aim to minimize regret, may provide better solution to the problem at hand. The choice of theory under which we operate is important as it determines both policy and our individual decision‐making. PMID:28730671

Many faces of rationality: Implications of the great rationality debate for clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Elqayam, Shira

2017-10-01

Given that more than 30% of healthcare costs are wasted on inappropriate care, suboptimal care is increasingly connected to the quality of medical decisions. It has been argued that personal decisions are the leading cause of death, and 80% of healthcare expenditures result from physicians' decisions. Therefore, improving healthcare necessitates improving medical decisions, ie, making decisions (more) rational. Drawing on writings from The Great Rationality Debate from the fields of philosophy, economics, and psychology, we identify core ingredients of rationality commonly encountered across various theoretical models. Rationality is typically classified under umbrella of normative (addressing the question how people "should" or "ought to" make their decisions) and descriptive theories of decision-making (which portray how people actually make their decisions). Normative theories of rational thought of relevance to medicine include epistemic theories that direct practice of evidence-based medicine and expected utility theory, which provides the basis for widely used clinical decision analyses. Descriptive theories of rationality of direct relevance to medical decision-making include bounded rationality, argumentative theory of reasoning, adaptive rationality, dual processing model of rationality, regret-based rationality, pragmatic/substantive rationality, and meta-rationality. For the first time, we provide a review of wide range of theories and models of rationality. We showed that what is "rational" behaviour under one rationality theory may be irrational under the other theory. We also showed that context is of paramount importance to rationality and that no one model of rationality can possibly fit all contexts. We suggest that in context-poor situations, such as policy decision-making, normative theories based on expected utility informed by best research evidence may provide the optimal approach to medical decision-making, whereas in the context-rich circumstances other types of rationality, informed by human cognitive architecture and driven by intuition and emotions such as the aim to minimize regret, may provide better solution to the problem at hand. The choice of theory under which we operate is important as it determines both policy and our individual decision-making. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Three-class ROC analysis--the equal error utility assumption and the optimality of three-class ROC surface using the ideal observer.

PubMed

He, Xin; Frey, Eric C

2006-08-01

Previously, we have developed a decision model for three-class receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on decision theory. The proposed decision model maximizes the expected decision utility under the assumption that incorrect decisions have equal utilities under the same hypothesis (equal error utility assumption). This assumption reduced the dimensionality of the "general" three-class ROC analysis and provided a practical figure-of-merit to evaluate the three-class task performance. However, it also limits the generality of the resulting model because the equal error utility assumption will not apply for all clinical three-class decision tasks. The goal of this study was to investigate the optimality of the proposed three-class decision model with respect to several other decision criteria. In particular, besides the maximum expected utility (MEU) criterion used in the previous study, we investigated the maximum-correctness (MC) (or minimum-error), maximum likelihood (ML), and Nyman-Pearson (N-P) criteria. We found that by making assumptions for both MEU and N-P criteria, all decision criteria lead to the previously-proposed three-class decision model. As a result, this model maximizes the expected utility under the equal error utility assumption, maximizes the probability of making correct decisions, satisfies the N-P criterion in the sense that it maximizes the sensitivity of one class given the sensitivities of the other two classes, and the resulting ROC surface contains the maximum likelihood decision operating point. While the proposed three-class ROC analysis model is not optimal in the general sense due to the use of the equal error utility assumption, the range of criteria for which it is optimal increases its applicability for evaluating and comparing a range of diagnostic systems.

Active inference and epistemic value.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2015-01-01

We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms.

Towards a theory of tiered testing.

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove; Rudén, Christina

2007-06-01

Tiered testing is an essential part of any resource-efficient strategy for the toxicity testing of a large number of chemicals, which is required for instance in the risk management of general (industrial) chemicals, In spite of this, no general theory seems to be available for the combination of single tests into efficient tiered testing systems. A first outline of such a theory is developed. It is argued that chemical, toxicological, and decision-theoretical knowledge should be combined in the construction of such a theory. A decision-theoretical approach for the optimization of test systems is introduced. It is based on expected utility maximization with simplified assumptions covering factual and value-related information that is usually missing in the development of test systems.

Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

PubMed

Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

2015-01-01

Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

The probabilistic nature of preferential choice.

PubMed

Rieskamp, Jörg

2008-11-01

Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes different choices in nearly identical situations, or why the magnitude of these inconsistencies varies in different situations. To illustrate the advantage of probabilistic theories, three probabilistic theories of decision making under risk are compared with their deterministic counterparts. The probabilistic theories are (a) a probabilistic version of a simple choice heuristic, (b) a probabilistic version of cumulative prospect theory, and (c) decision field theory. By testing the theories with the data from three experimental studies, the superiority of the probabilistic models over their deterministic counterparts in predicting people's decisions under risk become evident. When testing the probabilistic theories against each other, decision field theory provides the best account of the observed behavior.

Work and non-pathological gambling.

PubMed

Nyman, John A; Dowd, Bryan E; Hakes, Jahn K; Winters, Ken C; King, Serena

2013-03-01

Most economists believe that people would value an additional $1,000 in income more if they were poor than if rich, but if so, people should not gamble according to standard expected utility theory. Thus, economists have been challenged to explain the pervasiveness of gambling in human behavior. A recently proposed solution to this theoretical challenge (Nyman 2004; Nyman et al. in Journal of Socio-Economics 37:2492-2504, 2008) suggests that, because having to work for one's income is a fact of life in market economies, many individuals view the winnings from gambling not only as additional income, but as additional income for which one does not need to work. As a result, individuals, and especially those who are disadvantaged in the labor market, attach a utility premium to gambling winnings and gamble because of that. This utility premium would explain the pervasiveness of gambling in society, especially among the economically disadvantaged. This paper reviews the economic approaches to explaining non-pathological gambling, presents an overview of the new theory, and uses data from the National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions from 2001 to test it. The results indicate that the respondent's work characteristics explain the decision to gamble in a way that is consistent with theory.

Dishonest Academic Conduct: From the Perspective of the Utility Function.

PubMed

Sun, Ying; Tian, Rui

Dishonest academic conduct has aroused extensive attention in academic circles. To explore how scholars make decisions according to the principle of maximal utility, the author has constructed the general utility function based on the expected utility theory. The concrete utility functions of different types of scholars were deduced. They are as follows: risk neutral, risk averse, and risk preference. Following this, the assignment method was adopted to analyze and compare the scholars' utilities of academic conduct. It was concluded that changing the values of risk costs, internal condemnation costs, academic benefits, and the subjective estimation of penalties following dishonest academic conduct can lead to changes in the utility of academic dishonesty. The results of the current study suggest that within scientific research, measures to prevent and govern dishonest academic conduct should be formulated according to the various effects of the above four variables.

Dopamine reward prediction error responses reflect marginal utility.

PubMed

Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Schultz, Wolfram

2014-11-03

Optimal choices require an accurate neuronal representation of economic value. In economics, utility functions are mathematical representations of subjective value that can be constructed from choices under risk. Utility usually exhibits a nonlinear relationship to physical reward value that corresponds to risk attitudes and reflects the increasing or decreasing marginal utility obtained with each additional unit of reward. Accordingly, neuronal reward responses coding utility should robustly reflect this nonlinearity. In two monkeys, we measured utility as a function of physical reward value from meaningful choices under risk (that adhered to first- and second-order stochastic dominance). The resulting nonlinear utility functions predicted the certainty equivalents for new gambles, indicating that the functions' shapes were meaningful. The monkeys were risk seeking (convex utility function) for low reward and risk avoiding (concave utility function) with higher amounts. Critically, the dopamine prediction error responses at the time of reward itself reflected the nonlinear utility functions measured at the time of choices. In particular, the reward response magnitude depended on the first derivative of the utility function and thus reflected the marginal utility. Furthermore, dopamine responses recorded outside of the task reflected the marginal utility of unpredicted reward. Accordingly, these responses were sufficient to train reinforcement learning models to predict the behaviorally defined expected utility of gambles. These data suggest a neuronal manifestation of marginal utility in dopamine neurons and indicate a common neuronal basis for fundamental explanatory constructs in animal learning theory (prediction error) and economic decision theory (marginal utility). Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The anatomy of choice: dopamine and decision-making

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J.

2014-01-01

This paper considers goal-directed decision-making in terms of embodied or active inference. We associate bounded rationality with approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. Several constructs such as expected utility, exploration or novelty bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of free energy minimization. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding. In this paper, we consider variational Bayes as a scheme that the brain might use for approximate Bayesian inference. This scheme provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action, which appear to be remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Active inference contextualizes optimal decision theory within embodied inference, where goals become prior beliefs. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (associated with softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution. Crucially, this sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behaviour. The changes in precision during variational updates are remarkably reminiscent of empirical dopaminergic responses—and they may provide a new perspective on the role of dopamine in assimilating reward prediction errors to optimize decision-making. PMID:25267823

The anatomy of choice: dopamine and decision-making.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J

2014-11-05

This paper considers goal-directed decision-making in terms of embodied or active inference. We associate bounded rationality with approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. Several constructs such as expected utility, exploration or novelty bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of free energy minimization. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding. In this paper, we consider variational Bayes as a scheme that the brain might use for approximate Bayesian inference. This scheme provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action, which appear to be remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Active inference contextualizes optimal decision theory within embodied inference, where goals become prior beliefs. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (associated with softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution. Crucially, this sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behaviour. The changes in precision during variational updates are remarkably reminiscent of empirical dopaminergic responses-and they may provide a new perspective on the role of dopamine in assimilating reward prediction errors to optimize decision-making.

Functional specialization of the primate frontal cortex during decision making.

PubMed

Lee, Daeyeol; Rushworth, Matthew F S; Walton, Mark E; Watanabe, Masataka; Sakagami, Masamichi

2007-08-01

Economic theories of decision making are based on the principle of utility maximization, and reinforcement-learning theory provides computational algorithms that can be used to estimate the overall reward expected from alternative choices. These formal models not only account for a large range of behavioral observations in human and animal decision makers, but also provide useful tools for investigating the neural basis of decision making. Nevertheless, in reality, decision makers must combine different types of information about the costs and benefits associated with each available option, such as the quality and quantity of expected reward and required work. In this article, we put forward the hypothesis that different subdivisions of the primate frontal cortex may be specialized to focus on different aspects of dynamic decision-making processes. In this hypothesis, the lateral prefrontal cortex is primarily involved in maintaining the state representation necessary to identify optimal actions in a given environment. In contrast, the orbitofrontal cortex and the anterior cingulate cortex might be primarily involved in encoding and updating the utilities associated with different sensory stimuli and alternative actions, respectively. These cortical areas are also likely to contribute to decision making in a social context.

A Psychometric Approach to Theory-Based Behavior Change Intervention Development: Example From the Colorado Meaning-Activity Project.

PubMed

Masters, Kevin S; Ross, Kaile M; Hooker, Stephanie A; Wooldridge, Jennalee L

2018-05-18

There has been a notable disconnect between theories of behavior change and behavior change interventions. Because few interventions are both explicitly and adequately theory-based, investigators cannot assess the impact of theory on intervention effectiveness. Theory-based interventions, designed to deliberately engage the theory's proposed mechanisms of change, are needed to adequately test theories. Thus, systematic approaches to theory-based intervention development are needed. This article will introduce and discuss the psychometric method of developing theory-based interventions. The psychometric approach to intervention development utilizes basic psychometric principles at each step of the intervention development process in order to build a theoretically driven intervention to, subsequently, be tested in process (mechanism) and outcome studies. Five stages of intervention development are presented as follows: (i) Choice of theory; (ii) Identification and characterization of key concepts and expected relations; (iii) Intervention construction; (iv) Initial testing and revision; and (v) Empirical testing of the intervention. Examples of this approach from the Colorado Meaning-Activity Project (COMAP) are presented. Based on self-determination theory integrated with meaning or purpose, and utilizing a motivational interviewing approach, the COMAP intervention is individually based with an initial interview followed by smart phone-delivered interventions for increasing daily activity. The psychometric approach to intervention development is one method to ensure careful consideration of theory in all steps of intervention development. This structured approach supports developing a research culture that endorses deliberate and systematic operationalization of theory into behavior change intervention from the outset of intervention development.

Eyewitness Identification Reform: Data, Theory, and Due Process.

PubMed

Clark, Steven E

2012-05-01

Some commentators view my analyses (Clark, 2012, this issue) as an important step forward in assessing the costs and benefits of eyewitness identification reform. Others suggest that the trade-off between correct identifications lost and false identifications avoided is well-known; that the expected utility model is misspecified; and that the loss of correct identifications due to the use of reformed eyewitness identification procedures is irrelevant to policy decisions, as those correct identifications are the illegitimate product of suggestion and lucky guesses. Contrary to these criticisms, the loss of correct identifications has not been adequately considered in theoretical or policy matters, criticisms regarding the various utilities do not substantively change the nature of the trade-off, and the dismissal of lost correct identifications is based not on data but on an outdated theory of recognition memory. © The Author(s) 2012.

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior

PubMed Central

Brown, Jeffrey R.; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2017-01-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a “breakeven analysis” encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others. PMID:28579641

Framing and Claiming: How Information-Framing Affects Expected Social Security Claiming Behavior.

PubMed

Brown, Jeffrey R; Kapteyn, Arie; Mitchell, Olivia S

2016-03-01

This paper provides evidence that Social Security benefit claiming decisions are strongly affected by framing and are thus inconsistent with expected utility theory. Using a randomized experiment that controls for both observable and unobservable differences across individuals, we find that the use of a "breakeven analysis" encourages early claiming. Respondents are more likely to delay when later claiming is framed as a gain, and the claiming age is anchored at older ages. Additionally, the financially less literate, individuals with credit card debt, and those with lower earnings are more influenced by framing than others.

The predictive utility of drinking refusal self-efficacy and alcohol expectancy: a diary-based study of tension reduction.

PubMed

Young, R M; Oei, T P

2000-01-01

The potential tension reduction effects of alcohol may be most appropriately tested by examining the role of alcohol related beliefs regarding alcohol's anxiolytic properties. The relationship between affective change drinking refusal self-efficacy, tension reduction alcohol expectancies, and ongoing drinking behavior was examined amongst 57 regular drinkers. Alcohol consumption, antecedent, and consequent mood states were monitored prospectively by diary, Social learning theory hypothesizes that low drinking refusal self-efficacy when experiencing a negative mood state should be associated with more frequent drinking when tense. Strong alcohol expectancies of tension reduction were hypothesized to predict subsequent tension reduction. Contrary to this hypothesis, the present study found that alcohol expectancies were more strongly related to antecedent mood states. Only a weak relationship between drinking refusal self-efficacy and predrinking tension, and between alcohol expectancy and subsequent tension reduction, was evident.

From conditional oughts to qualitative decision theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pearl, Judea

1994-01-01

The primary theme of this investigation is a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements (e.g., 'You ought to do A, if C') that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic. The resulting account forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory, thus providing a framework for qualitative planning under uncertainty. In particular, we show that adding causal relationships (in the form of a single graph) as part of an epistemic state is sufficient to facilitate the analysis of action sequences, their consequences, their interaction with observations, their expected utilities, and the synthesis of plans and strategies under uncertainty.

Bisubstrate inhibition: Theory and application to N-acetyltransferases.

PubMed

Yu, Michael; Magalhães, Maria L B; Cook, Paul F; Blanchard, John S

2006-12-12

Bisubstrate inhibitors represent a potentially powerful group of compounds that have found significant therapeutic utility. Although these compounds have been synthesized and tested against a number of enzymes that catalyze sequential bireactant reactions, the detailed theory for predicting the expected patterns of inhibition against the two substrates for various bireactant kinetic mechanisms has, heretofore, not been presented. We have derived the rate equations for all likely sequential bireactant mechanisms and provide two examples in which bisubstrate inhibitors allow the kinetic mechanism to be determined. Bisubstrate inhibitor kinetics is a powerful diagnostic for the determination of kinetic mechanisms.

Robust Bayesian decision theory applied to optimal dosage.

PubMed

Abraham, Christophe; Daurès, Jean-Pierre

2004-04-15

We give a model for constructing an utility function u(theta,d) in a dose prescription problem. theta and d denote respectively the patient state of health and the dose. The construction of u is based on the conditional probabilities of several variables. These probabilities are described by logistic models. Obviously, u is only an approximation of the true utility function and that is why we investigate the sensitivity of the final decision with respect to the utility function. We construct a class of utility functions from u and approximate the set of all Bayes actions associated to that class. Then, we measure the sensitivity as the greatest difference between the expected utilities of two Bayes actions. Finally, we apply these results to weighing up a chemotherapy treatment of lung cancer. This application emphasizes the importance of measuring robustness through the utility of decisions rather than the decisions themselves. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk and utility in portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Morrel H.; Natoli, Vincent D.

2003-06-01

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to alleviate that weakness which, typically, combine utility and risk. We present here a modification of MPT based on the inclusion of separate risk and utility criteria. We define risk as the probability of failure to meet a pre-established investment goal. We define utility as the expectation of a utility function with positive and decreasing marginal value as a function of yield. The emphasis throughout is on long investment horizons for which risk-free assets do not exist. Analytic results are presented for a Gaussian probability distribution. Risk-utility relations are explored via empirical stock-price data, and an illustrative portfolio is optimized using the empirical data.

Risky Choice with Heuristics: Reply to Birnbaum (2008), Johnson, Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and Willemsen (2008), and Rieger and Wang (2008)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brandstatter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2008-01-01

E. Brandstatter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig (2006) showed that the priority heuristic matches or outperforms modifications of expected utility theory in predicting choice in 4 diverse problem sets. M. H. Birnbaum (2008) argued that sets exist in which the opposite is true. The authors agree--but stress that all choice strategies have regions of…

A Multi-Attribute-Utility-Theory Model that Minimizes Interview-Data Requirements: A Consolidation of Space Launch Decisions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-01

satel~ lites on th" .gruunu" U, .U,- orbit affects the priority given to a new launch. Table 3.9 Launch Priorities Level Level Title Description 0.00 No...value of a satellite’s mission(s) relative to the misston(s) of other sate• lites As such the rating given may reflect an endre class of satellites for...Expected Remaining Lifetime 0 Years Assign a number between 0 and I that best describes the utility of a sate; lite ’,th Vh,,V- ,ta .=.... ,. A at these

Modeling arson - An exercise in qualitative model building

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heineke, J. M.

1975-01-01

A detailed example is given of the role of von Neumann and Morgenstern's 1944 'expected utility theorem' (in the theory of games and economic behavior) in qualitative model building. Specifically, an arsonist's decision as to the amount of time to allocate to arson and related activities is modeled, and the responsiveness of this time allocation to changes in various policy parameters is examined. Both the activity modeled and the method of presentation are intended to provide an introduction to the scope and power of the expected utility theorem in modeling situations of 'choice under uncertainty'. The robustness of such a model is shown to vary inversely with the number of preference restrictions used in the analysis. The fewer the restrictions, the wider is the class of agents to which the model is applicable, and accordingly more confidence is put in the derived results. A methodological discussion on modeling human behavior is included.

Dynamics of Individual and Collective Agricultural Adaptation to Water Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burchfield, E. K.; Gilligan, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought and water scarcity are challenging agricultural systems around the world. We draw on extensive field-work conducted with paddy farmers in rural Sri Lanka to study adaptations to water scarcity, including switching to less water-intensive crops, farming collectively on shared land, and turning to groundwater by digging wells. We explore how variability in climate affects agricultural decision-making at the community and individual levels using three decision-making heuristics, each characterized by an objective function: risk-averse expected utility, regret-adjusted expected utility, and prospect theory loss-aversion. We also assess how the introduction of individualized access to irrigation water with wells affects long-standing community-based drought mitigation practices. Results suggest that the growth of well-irrigation may produce sudden disruptions to community-based adaptations, but that this depends on the mental models farmers use to think about risk and make decisions under uncertainty.

Adding Liver Stiffness Measurement to the Routine Evaluation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Resectability Can Optimize Clinical Outcome.

PubMed

Cucchetti, Alessandro; Cescon, Matteo; Colecchia, Antonio; Neri, Flavia; Cappelli, Alberta; Ravaioli, Matteo; Mazzotti, Federico; Ercolani, Giorgio; Festi, Davide; Pinna, Antonio Daniele

2017-10-01

Purpose  Liver stiffness (LS) has been shown to be of use in chronic liver disease patients but its utility in surgical judgment still needs to be proven. A decision-making approach was applied to evaluate whether LS measurement before surgery of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be useful in avoiding post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). Materials and Methods  Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to 202 HCC patients (2008 - 14) with LS measurement prior to hepatectomy to verify whether the occurrence of PHLF grades B/C should be reduced through a decision-making approach with LS.  Results  Within 90 days of surgery, 4 patients died (2 %) and grades B/C PHLF occurred in 29.7 % of cases. Ascites and/or pleural effusion, treatable with medical therapy, were the most frequent complications. DCA showed that using the "expected utility theory" LS measurement can reduce up to 39 % of cases of PHLF without the exclusion of any patient from surgery that duly undergoes an uncomplicated postoperative course. LS measurement does not add any information to normal clinical judgment for patients with a low (< 10 %) risk of PHLF. Conclusion  LS measurement can determine a reduction of PHLF under "expected utility theory" fulfilment. However, the degree of PHLF can be minor and "risk seeking" individuals can accept such a risk on the basis of surgical benefits. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Applying voting theory in natural resource management: a case of multiple-criteria group decision support.

PubMed

Laukkanen, Sanna; Kangas, Annika; Kangas, Jyrki

2002-02-01

Voting theory has a lot in common with utility theory, and especially with group decision-making. An expected-utility-maximising strategy exists in voting situations, as well as in decision-making situations. Therefore, it is natural to utilise the achievements of voting theory also in group decision-making. Most voting systems are based on a single criterion or holistic preference information on decision alternatives. However, a voting scheme called multicriteria approval is specially developed for decision-making situations with multiple criteria. This study considers the voting theory from the group decision support point of view and compares it with some other methods applied to similar purposes in natural resource management. A case study is presented, where the approval voting approach is introduced to natural resources planning and tested in a forestry group decision-making process. Applying multicriteria approval method was found to be a potential approach for handling some challenges typical for forestry group decision support. These challenges include (i) utilising ordinal information in the evaluation of decision alternatives, (ii) being readily understandable for and treating equally all the stakeholders in possession of different levels of knowledge on the subject considered, (iii) fast and cheap acquisition of preference information from several stakeholders, and (iv) dealing with multiple criteria.

Is Regret Theory an alternative basis for estimating the value of healthcare interventions?

PubMed

Smith, R D

1996-08-01

This paper presents an argument for the existence of "regret' influencing the valuation of alternative outcomes when making treatment decisions in healthcare. It is argued that valuation techniques as currently formulated rely upon the axioms of Expected Utility Theory (transitivity and independence). This potentially leads to a misrepresentation of the respondents true preferences over treatment alternatives, and thus results in the potential for "irrational' decisions being observed. A modified version of Regret Theory is outlined, and the results of a tentative empirical analysis provided to illustrate the importance of accounting for regret in the valuation of health states. It is concluded that regret is an important element in individual valuation and decision making in health care.

A hierarchical instrumental decision theory of nicotine dependence.

PubMed

Hogarth, Lee; Troisi, Joseph R

2015-01-01

It is important to characterize the learning processes governing tobacco-seeking in order to understand how best to treat this behavior. Most drug learning theories have adopted a Pavlovian framework wherein the conditioned response is the main motivational process. We favor instead a hierarchical instrumental decision account, wherein expectations about the instrumental contingency between voluntary tobacco-seeking and the receipt of nicotine reward determines the probability of executing this behavior. To support this view, we review titration and nicotine discrimination research showing that internal signals for deprivation/satiation modulate expectations about the current incentive value of smoking, thereby modulating the propensity of this behavior. We also review research on cue-reactivity which has shown that external smoking cues modulate expectations about the probability of the tobacco-seeking response being effective, thereby modulating the propensity of this behavior. Economic decision theory is then considered to elucidate how expectations about the value and probability of response-nicotine contingency are integrated to form an overall utility estimate for that option for comparison with qualitatively different, nonsubstitute reinforcers, to determine response selection. As an applied test for this hierarchical instrumental decision framework, we consider how well it accounts for individual liability to smoking uptake and perseveration, pharmacotherapy, cue-extinction therapies, and plain packaging. We conclude that the hierarchical instrumental account is successful in reconciling this broad range of phenomenon precisely because it accepts that multiple diverse sources of internal and external information must be integrated to shape the decision to smoke.

Exercise motivation and adherence in cancer survivors after participation in a randomized controlled trial: an attribution theory perspective.

PubMed

Courneya, Kerry S; Friedenreich, Christine M; Sela, Rami A; Quinney, H Arthur; Rhodes, Ryan E; Jones, Lee W

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine postprogram exercise motivation and adherence in cancer survivors who participated in the Group Psychotherapy and Home-Based Physical Exercise (GROUP-HOPE; Courneya, Friedenreich, Sela, Quinney, & Rhodes, 2002) trial. At the completion of the GROUP-HOPE trial, 46 of 51 (90%) participants in the exercise group completed measures of attribution theory constructs. A 5-week follow-up self-report of exercise was then completed by 30 (65%) participants. Correlational analyses indicated that program exercise, perceived success, expected success, and affective reactions were strong predictors of postprogram exercise. In multivariate stepwise regression analyses, program exercise and perceived success were the strongest predictors of postprogram exercise. Additionally, perceived success was more important than objective success in understanding the attribution process, and it interacted with personal control to influence expected success and negative affect. Finally, postprogram quality of life and changes in physical fitness were correlates of perceived success. We concluded that attribution theory may have utility for understanding postprogram exercise motivation and adherence in cancer survivors.

Theories of Motivation--Borrowing the Best.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terpstra, David E.

1979-01-01

Five theories of motivation are discussed: Maslow's Need Hierarchy, Herzberg's dual-factor or motivation-hygiene theory, goal setting or task motivation, expectancy/valence-theory (also known as instrumentality theory, valence-instrumentality-expectancy theory, or expectancy theory), and reinforcement. (JH)

More Useful, or Not So Bad? Evaluating the Effects of Interventions to Reduce Perceived Cost and Increase Utility Value with College Physics Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, Emily Quinn

In the present study I developed and evaluated the effects of two interventions designed to target students' motivation to learn in an introductory college physics course. One intervention was designed to improve students' perceptions of utility value and the other was designed to reduce students' perceptions of cost. Utility value and cost both are central constructs from Eccles and colleagues' expectancy-value theory of motivation (Eccles-Parsons et al., 1983). Students (N = 148) were randomly assigned to receive the cost intervention, the utility value intervention, or one of two control conditions. Compared to a survey control condition, neither intervention impacted overall students' motivation, measured at 3 time points over the semester, or their course outcomes. In moderation analyses, neither intervention impacted any students' perceptions of utility value. However, both interventions impacted some students' perceptions of cost, competence-related beliefs, and course outcomes positively while impacting these variables for other students negatively. The cost intervention benefitted consistently and in different ways students who had low baseline competence-related beliefs, low prior achievement, strong malleable beliefs about intelligence, or who were female. However, the intervention showed consistent undermining effects on motivation and/or achievement for students with strong fixed beliefs about intelligence. The utility value intervention benefitted consistently the course outcomes of students who had low baseline competence-related beliefs, low prior achievement, or who were female. The intervention showed less consistent undermining effects on motivation for students with strong fixed beliefs about intelligence, high baseline competence-related beliefs, or high prior achievement. Prior researchers have shown that utility value interventions improve course outcomes for some students who are at risk for underachievement. The present study extends prior work by showing that utility value interventions benefit similar students in college physics courses. It also demonstrates that a cost intervention is a viable way to impact at-risk students' physics course outcomes. Future researchers should consider carefully moderating variables and how to mitigate potential undermining effects for some students when implementing future expectancy-value-theory-based interventions in college physics courses.

Intelligent Real-Time Problem Solving

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

uncertainty, its preferences, and its attitude towards risk . 14 Control Theory This paradigm has culminated in a mature academic discipline that has produced a...systems offer the obvious advantages of evaluating against reality, but they are often cumbersome or even unavailable, may pose unacceptable risks , etc. In... return an answer. For the sorts of anytime algorithms wc are interested in, one can determine the expected utility of the answers returned by the

Toward an Extension of Decision Analysis to Competitive Situations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

order to deal with competition may ease the use of non- von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. This leads to our secondary goal of questioning expected...While von WInterfeldt [1980] attempted a 5 (more detailed analysis using three separate decision trees, one for each side In the dispute, he felt that...rationality generally used In game theory derives from the same roots as the calculated rationality of Decision Analysis, von Neumann and

Utility of Social Cognitive Theory in Intervention Design for Promoting Physical Activity among African-American Women: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Joseph, Rodney P; Ainsworth, Barbara E; Mathis, LaTanya; Hooker, Steven P; Keller, Colleen

2017-09-01

We examined the cultural relevance of Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) in the design of a physical activity intervention for African-American women. A qualitative study design was used. Twenty-five African-American women (Mean age = 38.5 years, Mean BMI = 39.4 kg·m2) were enrolled in a series of focus groups (N = 9) to elucidate how 5 SCT constructs (ie, Behavioral Capability, Outcome Expectations, Self-efficacy, Self-regulation, Social Support) can be culturally tailored in the design of a physical activity program for African-American women. For the construct of Behavioral Capability, participants were generally unaware of the amount, intensity, and types of physical activity needed for health benefits. Outcome Expectations associated with physical activity included increased energy, improved health, weight loss, and positive role modeling behaviors. Constructs of Self-efficacy and Self-regulation were elicited through the women perceiving themselves as a primary barrier to physical activity. Participants endorsed the need of a strong social support component and identified a variety of acceptable sources to include in a physical activity program (ie, family, friends, other program participants). Findings explicate the utility of SCT as a behavioral change theoretical basis for tailoring physical activity programs to African-American women.

Noisy Preferences in Risky Choice: A Cautionary Note

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

We examine the effects of multiple sources of noise in risky decision making. Noise in the parameters that characterize an individual’s preferences can combine with noise in the response process to distort observed choice proportions. Thus, underlying preferences that conform to expected value maximization can appear to show systematic risk aversion or risk seeking. Similarly, core preferences that are consistent with expected utility theory, when perturbed by such noise, can appear to display nonlinear probability weighting. For this reason, modal choices cannot be used simplistically to infer underlying preferences. Quantitative model fits that do not allow for both sorts of noise can lead to wrong conclusions. PMID:28569526

In-situ resource utilization for the human exploration of Mars : a Bayesian approach to valuation of precursor missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.

2006-01-01

The need for sufficient quantities of oxygen, water, and fuel resources to support a crew on the surface of Mars presents a critical logistical issue of whether to transport such resources from Earth or manufacture them on Mars. An approach based on the classical Wildcat Drilling Problem of Bayesian decision theory was applied to the problem of finding water in order to compute the expected value of precursor mission sample information. An implicit (required) probability of finding water on Mars was derived from the value of sample information using the expected mass savings of alternative precursor missions.

Students' motivational beliefs in science learning, school motivational contexts, and science achievement in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cheng-Lung; Liou, Pey-Yan

2017-05-01

Taiwanese students are featured as having high academic achievement but low motivational beliefs according to the serial results of the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Moreover, given that the role of context has become more important in the development of academic motivation theory, this study aimed to examine the relationship between motivational beliefs and science achievement at both the student and school levels. Based on the Expectancy-Value Theory, the three motivational beliefs, namely self-concept, intrinsic value, and utility value, were the focuses of this study. The two-level hierarchical linear model was used to analyse the Taiwanese TIMSS 2011 eighth-grade student data. The results indicated that each motivational belief had a positive predictive effect on science achievement. Additionally, a positive school contextual effect of self-concept on science achievement was identified. Furthermore, school-mean utility value had a negative moderating effect on the relationship between utility value and science achievement. In conclusion, this study sheds light on the functioning of motivational beliefs in science learning among Taiwanese adolescents with consideration of the school motivational contexts.

Treatment decision making and adjustment to breast cancer: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Stanton, A L; Estes, M A; Estes, N C; Cameron, C L; Danoff-Burg, S; Irving, L M

1998-04-01

This study monitored women (N = 76) with breast cancer from diagnosis through 1 year, and tested constructs from subjective expected utility theory with regard to their ability to predict patients' choice of surgical treatment as well as psychological distress and well-being over time. Women's positive expectancies for the consequences of treatment generally were maintained in favorable perceptions of outcome in several realms (i.e., physician agreement, likelihood of cancer cure or recurrence, self-evaluation, likelihood of additional treatment, partner support for option, attractiveness to partner). Assessed before the surgical decision-making appointment, women's expectancies for consequences of the treatment options, along with age, correctly classified 94% of the sample with regard to election of mastectomy versus breast-conserving procedures. Calculated from the point of decision making to 3 months later, expectancy disconfirmations and value discrepancies concerning particular treatment consequences predicted psychological adjustment 3 months and 1 year after diagnosis.

Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

PubMed

Mishra, Sandeep

2014-08-01

Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Acceptance and Utilization of Technology (UTAUT) as a Method of Technology Acceptance Model of Mitigation Disaster Website

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siswanto, T.; Shofiati, R.; Hartini, H.

2018-01-01

www.mitigasi-bencana.com as a knowledge management website created based on survey results in April-July 2014 in East Java and Central Java provinces, indicates a gap between the expectations and reality that exist in the services provided by the regional disaster management agency. Based on condition analysis, the gaps that occur can be reduced if the community has the understanding and knowledge of adequate disaster mitigation. The problem that arises later is whether the chosen technology solution is appropriate and acceptable to the public? The methodology used in this study using the Technology Acceptance Model development is the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Utilization of Technology (UTAUT). Feedback obtained from respondents KarangTaruna youth SelogedongBantul, www.mitigasi-bencana.com can be accepted by the respondents, but from processed data is obtained only UTAUT hypotheses on the relationship dimension eligible for Social Expectancy on the Attitude toward technology, which means the higher the perception of the Social Expectancy, the higher the perception of the Attitude toward technology. Because www.mitigasi-bencana.com is new socialized so that society still need time to explore content information and knowledge contained therein. To be accepted by user, a knowledge management application must prepare various aspects of Performance Expectancy, Effort Expectancy, Social Factors, Facilitating Conditions and Attitude.

The Role of Geoscience Information in Reducing Catastrophic Loss Using a Web-Based Economics Experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, Richard L.; Brookshire, David S.; Ganderton, Philip T.

2003-01-01

What role can geoscience information play in the assessment of risk and the value of insurance, especially for natural hazard type risks? In an earlier, related paper Ganderton and others (2000) provided subjects with relatively simple geoscience information concerning natural hazard-type risks. Their research looked at how subjects purchase insurance when faced with relatively low probability but high loss risks of the kind that characterize natural hazards and now, increasingly, manmade disasters. They found evidence to support the expected utility theory (definitions of economics terms can be found in a glossary at the end of report), yet there remained the implication that subjects with excessive aversion to risk were willing to pay considerably more for insurance than the actuarially fair price plus any reasonable risk premium. Here, we report the results of additional experiments that provide further support for the basic postulates of expected utility theory. However, these new experiments add considerably to the decision environment facing subjects by offering an option to purchase geoscientific information that would assist them when calculating expected losses from hazards more accurately. Using an Internet-based mechanism to present information and gather data in an experimental setting, this research provided subjects with considerable textual and graphical information, and time to process it. Over a period of three months, almost 400 subjects participated in on-line experiments that generated approximately 22,000 usable data points for the empirical analysis discussed in this report. In the design of the experiment, we modeled the decisions to purchase (1) a detailed map giving subjects more information regarding the distribution of losses from a hazard and (2) insurance to indemnify them from any losses should they occur. On the basis of this design, we find strong evidence in support of the expected utility theory. Many of the findings reinforce those found in the early, similar study (Ganderton and others, 2000). However, this research also finds interactions between the decision to become better informed and the decision to insure. We chose an empirical framework that allows for both explicit and implicit (unobservable) correlations between the two decisions. The results suggest that at the end of the computer game subjects recognize the benefits of greater geoscience information. They take advantage of it, but are sensitive to its cost. When subjects use the more detailed information, they are more likely to purchase insurance when it offers a net benefit.

Regulatory reform for natural gas pipelines: The effect on pipeline and distribution company share prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurman, Elisabeth Antonie

1997-08-01

The natural gas shortages in the 1970s focused considerable attention on the federal government's role in altering energy consumption. For the natural gas industry these shortages eventually led to the passage of the Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) in 1978 as part of the National Energy Plan. A series of events in the decade of the 1980s has brought about the restructuring of interstate natural gas pipelines which have been transformed by regulators and the courts from monopolies into competitive entities. This transformation also changed their relationship with their downstream customers, the LDCs, who no longer had to deal with pipelines as the only merchants of gas. Regulatory reform made it possible for LDCs to buy directly from producers using the pipelines only for delivery of their purchases. This study tests for the existence of monopoly rents by analyzing the daily returns of natural gas pipeline and utility industry stock price data from 1982 to 1990, a period of regulatory reform for the natural gas industry. The study's main objective is to investigate the degree of empirical support for claims that regulatory reforms increase profits in the affected industry, as the normative theory of regulation expects, or decrease profits, as advocates of the positive theory of regulation believe. I also test Norton's theory of risk which predicts that systematic risk will increase for firms undergoing deregulation. Based on a sample of twelve natural gas pipelines, and 25 utilities an event study concept was employed to measure the impact of regulatory event announcements on daily natural gas pipeline or utility industry stock price data using a market model regression equation. The results of this study provide some evidence that regulatory reforms did not increase the profits of pipeline firms, confirming the expectations of those who claim that excess profits result from regulation and will disappear, once that protection is removed and the firms are operating in competitive markets. The study's empirical findings support the claims of Norton's risk theory that systematic risk is higher in unregulated firms.

Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

PubMed

Rasiel, Emma B; Weinfurt, Kevin P; Schulman, Kevin A

2005-01-01

Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

When is an error not a prediction error? An electrophysiological investigation.

PubMed

Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E; Baker, Robert; Lee, Seung; Gibson, Jessica

2009-03-01

A recent theory holds that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) uses reinforcement learning signals conveyed by the midbrain dopamine system to facilitate flexible action selection. According to this position, the impact of reward prediction error signals on ACC modulates the amplitude of a component of the event-related brain potential called the error-related negativity (ERN). The theory predicts that ERN amplitude is monotonically related to the expectedness of the event: It is larger for unexpected outcomes than for expected outcomes. However, a recent failure to confirm this prediction has called the theory into question. In the present article, we investigated this discrepancy in three trial-and-error learning experiments. All three experiments provided support for the theory, but the effect sizes were largest when an optimal response strategy could actually be learned. This observation suggests that ACC utilizes dopamine reward prediction error signals for adaptive decision making when the optimal behavior is, in fact, learnable.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liakh, Dmitry I

While the formalism of multiresolution analysis (MRA), based on wavelets and adaptive integral representations of operators, is actively progressing in electronic structure theory (mostly on the independent-particle level and, recently, second-order perturbation theory), the concepts of multiresolution and adaptivity can also be utilized within the traditional formulation of correlated (many-particle) theory which is based on second quantization and the corresponding (generally nonorthogonal) tensor algebra. In this paper, we present a formalism called scale-adaptive tensor algebra (SATA) which exploits an adaptive representation of tensors of many-body operators via the local adjustment of the basis set quality. Given a series of locallymore » supported fragment bases of a progressively lower quality, we formulate the explicit rules for tensor algebra operations dealing with adaptively resolved tensor operands. The formalism suggested is expected to enhance the applicability and reliability of local correlated many-body methods of electronic structure theory, especially those directly based on atomic orbitals (or any other localized basis functions).« less

Playing Games and Making Decisions with Complex State Spaces, Resource-Bounded Agents, and Unforeseen Contingencies

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-20

t) = ∑ ~a∈A(σ1(t1)(a1) × . . . × σm(tm)(am))ui(~t,~a). Player i’s expected utility if ~σ is played, denoted Ui(~σ), is then just EPr [u ~σ i ] = ∑ ~t∈T...well-known Traveler’s Dilemma (K. Basu, The traveler’s dilemma: paradoxes of rationality in game theory, American Economic Review 84:2, 1994, pp. 391

Lay theories of smoking and young adult nonsmokers' and smokers' smoking expectations.

PubMed

Fitz, Caroline C; Kaufman, Annette; Moore, Philip J

2015-04-01

This study investigated the relationship between lay theories of cigarette smoking and expectations to smoke. An incremental lay theory of smoking entails the belief that smoking behavior can change; an entity theory entails the belief that smoking behavior cannot change. Undergraduate nonsmokers and smokers completed a survey that assessed lay theories of smoking and smoking expectations. Results demonstrated that lay theories of smoking were differentially associated with smoking expectations for nonsmokers and smokers: stronger incremental beliefs were associated with greater expectations of trying smoking for nonsmokers but lower expectations of becoming a regular smoker for smokers. Implications for interventions are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

Efficient Nash Equilibrium Resource Allocation Based on Game Theory Mechanism in Cloud Computing by Using Auction

PubMed Central

Nezarat, Amin; Dastghaibifard, GH

2015-01-01

One of the most complex issues in the cloud computing environment is the problem of resource allocation so that, on one hand, the cloud provider expects the most profitability and, on the other hand, users also expect to have the best resources at their disposal considering the budget constraints and time. In most previous work conducted, heuristic and evolutionary approaches have been used to solve this problem. Nevertheless, since the nature of this environment is based on economic methods, using such methods can decrease response time and reducing the complexity of the problem. In this paper, an auction-based method is proposed which determines the auction winner by applying game theory mechanism and holding a repetitive game with incomplete information in a non-cooperative environment. In this method, users calculate suitable price bid with their objective function during several round and repetitions and send it to the auctioneer; and the auctioneer chooses the winning player based the suggested utility function. In the proposed method, the end point of the game is the Nash equilibrium point where players are no longer inclined to alter their bid for that resource and the final bid also satisfies the auctioneer’s utility function. To prove the response space convexity, the Lagrange method is used and the proposed model is simulated in the cloudsim and the results are compared with previous work. At the end, it is concluded that this method converges to a response in a shorter time, provides the lowest service level agreement violations and the most utility to the provider. PMID:26431035

Efficient Nash Equilibrium Resource Allocation Based on Game Theory Mechanism in Cloud Computing by Using Auction.

PubMed

Nezarat, Amin; Dastghaibifard, G H

2015-01-01

One of the most complex issues in the cloud computing environment is the problem of resource allocation so that, on one hand, the cloud provider expects the most profitability and, on the other hand, users also expect to have the best resources at their disposal considering the budget constraints and time. In most previous work conducted, heuristic and evolutionary approaches have been used to solve this problem. Nevertheless, since the nature of this environment is based on economic methods, using such methods can decrease response time and reducing the complexity of the problem. In this paper, an auction-based method is proposed which determines the auction winner by applying game theory mechanism and holding a repetitive game with incomplete information in a non-cooperative environment. In this method, users calculate suitable price bid with their objective function during several round and repetitions and send it to the auctioneer; and the auctioneer chooses the winning player based the suggested utility function. In the proposed method, the end point of the game is the Nash equilibrium point where players are no longer inclined to alter their bid for that resource and the final bid also satisfies the auctioneer's utility function. To prove the response space convexity, the Lagrange method is used and the proposed model is simulated in the cloudsim and the results are compared with previous work. At the end, it is concluded that this method converges to a response in a shorter time, provides the lowest service level agreement violations and the most utility to the provider.

Memory for musical tones: the impact of tonality and the creation of false memories.

PubMed

Vuvan, Dominique T; Podolak, Olivia M; Schmuckler, Mark A

2014-01-01

Although the relation between tonality and musical memory has been fairly well-studied, less is known regarding the contribution of tonal-schematic expectancies to this relation. Three experiments investigated the influence of tonal expectancies on memory for single tones in a tonal melodic context. In the first experiment, listener responses indicated superior recognition of both expected and unexpected targets in a major tonal context than for moderately expected targets. Importantly, and in support of previous work on false memories, listener responses also revealed a higher false alarm rate for expected than unexpected targets. These results indicate roles for tonal schematic congruency as well as distinctiveness in memory for melodic tones. The second experiment utilized minor melodies, which weakened tonal expectancies since the minor tonality can be represented in three forms simultaneously. Finally, tonal expectancies were abolished entirely in the third experiment through the use of atonal melodies. Accordingly, the expectancy-based results observed in the first experiment were disrupted in the second experiment, and disappeared in the third experiment. These results are discussed in light of schema theory, musical expectancy, and classic memory work on the availability and distinctiveness heuristics.

Memory for musical tones: the impact of tonality and the creation of false memories

PubMed Central

Vuvan, Dominique T.; Podolak, Olivia M.; Schmuckler, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Although the relation between tonality and musical memory has been fairly well-studied, less is known regarding the contribution of tonal-schematic expectancies to this relation. Three experiments investigated the influence of tonal expectancies on memory for single tones in a tonal melodic context. In the first experiment, listener responses indicated superior recognition of both expected and unexpected targets in a major tonal context than for moderately expected targets. Importantly, and in support of previous work on false memories, listener responses also revealed a higher false alarm rate for expected than unexpected targets. These results indicate roles for tonal schematic congruency as well as distinctiveness in memory for melodic tones. The second experiment utilized minor melodies, which weakened tonal expectancies since the minor tonality can be represented in three forms simultaneously. Finally, tonal expectancies were abolished entirely in the third experiment through the use of atonal melodies. Accordingly, the expectancy-based results observed in the first experiment were disrupted in the second experiment, and disappeared in the third experiment. These results are discussed in light of schema theory, musical expectancy, and classic memory work on the availability and distinctiveness heuristics. PMID:24971071

Mysteries of hypnosis and the self are revealed by the psychology and neuroscience of empathy.

PubMed

Wickramasekera, Ian E

2015-01-01

This article reviews a growing body of research and theory in hypnosis and neuroscience that supports the empathic involvement theory (EIT) of hypnosis (Wickramasekera II, 2001; Wickramasekera II & Szlyk, 2003; Wickramasekera II, 2007c). The EIT is a unified transpersonal theory of hypnosis and the self, which weaves together empathic elements of Dzogchen, neodissociative, neuroscience, psychoanalytic, sociocognitive, and other theories by proposing that hypnotic phenomena are inherently characterized by their deep involvement with processes of empathy and the self. The EIT proposes that the experience of hypnosis is embodied in a system of neural networks in the brain that utilizes empathy-related processes, adaptive resonance between perceptual input and top-down expectancies, and connectionist learning algorithms to (a) empathically enact the affect, cognition, body language, response expectancies, social roles, sensations, etc. that are presented to them during hypnosis in accordance with socio-cognitive theories of hypnosis; (b) engage in a convergent psychophysiological relationship with another person in accordance with psychoanalytic, Ericksonian, and polyvagal/social engagement system theories; (c) alter the empathic self/other (theory of mind) coding of phenomenological experiences during hypnosis in accordance with aspects of the neo-dissociative and socio-cognitive traditions; and (d) develop an experiential understanding of the illusion of self that may lead, in some people, to its transcendence in accordance with Bon-Buddhist, Dzogchen, and transpersonal scholars. A unified definition of hypnosis is proposed based on findings in the empathic neuroscience of hypnosis as well as a working model of the neuromatrix of the self.

Suboptimal choice in rats: incentive salience attribution promotes maladaptive decision-making

PubMed Central

Chow, Jonathan J; Smith, Aaron P; Wilson, A George; Zentall, Thomas R; Beckmann, Joshua S

2016-01-01

Stimuli that are more predictive of subsequent reward also function as better conditioned reinforcers. Moreover, stimuli attributed with incentive salience function as more robust conditioned reinforcers. Some theories have suggested that conditioned reinforcement plays an important role in promoting suboptimal choice behavior, like gambling. The present experiments examined how different stimuli, those attributed with incentive salience versus those without, can function in tandem with stimulus-reward predictive utility to promote maladaptive decision-making in rats. One group of rats had lights associated with goal-tracking as the reward-predictive stimuli and another had levers associated with sign-tracking as the reward-predictive stimuli. All rats were first trained on a choice procedure in which the expected value across both alternatives was equivalent but differed in their stimulus-reward predictive utility. Next, the expected value across both alternatives was systematically changed so that the alternative with greater stimulus-reward predictive utility was suboptimal in regard to primary reinforcement. The results demonstrate that in order to obtain suboptimal choice behavior, incentive salience alongside strong stimulus-reward predictive utility may be necessary; thus, maladaptive decision-making can be driven more by the value attributed to stimuli imbued with incentive salience that reliably predict a reward rather than the reward itself. PMID:27993692

Suboptimal choice in rats: Incentive salience attribution promotes maladaptive decision-making.

PubMed

Chow, Jonathan J; Smith, Aaron P; Wilson, A George; Zentall, Thomas R; Beckmann, Joshua S

2017-03-01

Stimuli that are more predictive of subsequent reward also function as better conditioned reinforcers. Moreover, stimuli attributed with incentive salience function as more robust conditioned reinforcers. Some theories have suggested that conditioned reinforcement plays an important role in promoting suboptimal choice behavior, like gambling. The present experiments examined how different stimuli, those attributed with incentive salience versus those without, can function in tandem with stimulus-reward predictive utility to promote maladaptive decision-making in rats. One group of rats had lights associated with goal-tracking as the reward-predictive stimuli and another had levers associated with sign-tracking as the reward-predictive stimuli. All rats were first trained on a choice procedure in which the expected value across both alternatives was equivalent but differed in their stimulus-reward predictive utility. Next, the expected value across both alternatives was systematically changed so that the alternative with greater stimulus-reward predictive utility was suboptimal in regard to primary reinforcement. The results demonstrate that in order to obtain suboptimal choice behavior, incentive salience alongside strong stimulus-reward predictive utility may be necessary; thus, maladaptive decision-making can be driven more by the value attributed to stimuli imbued with incentive salience that reliably predict a reward rather than the reward itself. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

Time management problems and discounted utility.

PubMed

König, Cornelius J; Kleinmann, Martin

2007-05-01

The lens of behavioral decision theory offers a new perspective for research on time management. The basic idea of this approach is that people discount future consequences of their time management decisions, meaning that they work on tasks with smaller but sooner outcomes rather than on tasks with larger but later outcomes. The authors performed 2 experimental studies to test whether people are sensitive to differences in the discounted utility of time management decisions. In Experiment 1, they used vignettes of typical time management situations; Experiment 2 was a laboratory simulation (an in-basket task that was part of a training assessment). Participants in both studies were German students. As expected, manipulating the discounted utility of options resulted in different time management decisions. In Experiment 1, reactions to time management situations were judged as less likely if the reactions had lower discounted utilities. In Experiment 2, people spent less time on an interruption.

Behavioral aspects of clinical trials. An integrated framework from behavior theory.

PubMed

Morrow, G R; Hickok, J T; Burish, T G

1994-11-01

A less-than-optimal proportion of patients with cancer are entered into National Cancer Institute-sponsored clinical trials. This article reviews the literature on accrual in oncology clinical trials to characterize the extent of the problem, identify reasons for low accrual, and suggest ways to promote accrual. Four well known theories of health behavior (the Health Belief Model, Subjective Expected Utility Theory, Protection Motivation Theory, and the Theory of Reasoned Action) point to central concepts involved in understanding patient health-related behavior: (1) the probability that an unwelcomed health event will happen to a patient, (2) the severity of that event if it does occur, (3) the effectiveness of a particular behavior (such as taking part in a clinical trial) to modify the severity, and (4) the cost of adopting that behavior. These concepts form a framework for integrating the available information about accrual to clinical oncology trials. Patient and physician factors previously related to clinical trials suggest specific recommendations for increasing accrual to clinical oncology trials.

Noisy preferences in risky choice: A cautionary note.

PubMed

Bhatia, Sudeep; Loomes, Graham

2017-10-01

We examine the effects of multiple sources of noise in risky decision making. Noise in the parameters that characterize an individual's preferences can combine with noise in the response process to distort observed choice proportions. Thus, underlying preferences that conform to expected value maximization can appear to show systematic risk aversion or risk seeking. Similarly, core preferences that are consistent with expected utility theory, when perturbed by such noise, can appear to display nonlinear probability weighting. For this reason, modal choices cannot be used simplistically to infer underlying preferences. Quantitative model fits that do not allow for both sorts of noise can lead to wrong conclusions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

On deciding to have a lobotomy: either lobotomies were justified or decisions under risk should not always seek to maximise expected utility.

PubMed

Cooper, Rachel

2014-02-01

In the 1940s and 1950s thousands of lobotomies were performed on people with mental disorders. These operations were known to be dangerous, but thought to offer great hope. Nowadays, the lobotomies of the 1940s and 1950s are widely condemned. The consensus is that the practitioners who employed them were, at best, misguided enthusiasts, or, at worst, evil. In this paper I employ standard decision theory to understand and assess shifts in the evaluation of lobotomy. Textbooks of medical decision making generally recommend that decisions under risk are made so as to maximise expected utility (MEU) I show that using this procedure suggests that the 1940s and 1950s practice of psychosurgery was justifiable. In making sense of this finding we have a choice: Either we can accept that psychosurgery was justified, in which case condemnation of the lobotomists is misplaced. Or, we can conclude that the use of formal decision procedures, such as MEU, is problematic.

Why high-risk, non-expected-utility-maximising gambles can be rational and beneficial: the case of HIV cure studies.

PubMed

Buchak, Lara

2017-02-01

Some early phase clinical studies of candidate HIV cure and remission interventions appear to have adverse medical risk-benefit ratios for participants. Why, then, do people participate? And is it ethically permissible to allow them to participate? Recent work in decision theory sheds light on both of these questions, by casting doubt on the idea that rational individuals prefer choices that maximise expected utility, and therefore by casting doubt on the idea that researchers have an ethical obligation not to enrol participants in studies with high risk-benefit ratios. This work supports the view that researchers should instead defer to the considered preferences of the participants themselves. This essay briefly explains this recent work, and then explores its application to these two questions in more detail. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Quantum structure in economics: The Ellsberg paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aerts, Diederik; Sozzo, Sandro

2012-03-01

The expected utility hypothesis and Savage's Sure-Thing Principle are violated in real life decisions, as shown by the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes. The popular explanation in terms of ambiguity aversion is not completely accepted. As a consequence, uncertainty is still problematical in economics. To overcome these difficulties a distinction between risk and ambiguity has been introduced which depends on the existence of a Kolmogorovian probabilistic structure modeling these uncertainties. On the other hand, evidence of everyday life suggests that context plays a fundamental role in human decisions under uncertainty. Moreover, it is well known from physics that any probabilistic structure modeling contextual interactions between entities structurally needs a non-Kolmogorovian framework admitting a quantum-like representation. For this reason, we have recently introduced a notion of contextual risk to mathematically capture situations in which ambiguity occurs. We prove in this paper that the contextual risk approach can be applied to the Ellsberg paradox, and elaborate a sphere model within our hidden measurement formalism which reveals that it is the overall conceptual landscape that is responsible of the disagreement between actual human decisions and the predictions of expected utility theory, which generates the paradox. This result points to the presence of a quantum conceptual layer in human thought which is superposed to the usually assumed classical logical layer, and conceptually supports the thesis of several authors suggesting the presence of quantum structure in economics and decision theory.

The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J

2013-01-01

This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behavior. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimizes the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimizing free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action-constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualizes optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian) formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution-that minimizes free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behavior, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behavior entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control.

Motivational beliefs, values, and goals.

PubMed

Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Wigfield, Allan

2002-01-01

This chapter reviews the recent research on motivation, beliefs, values, and goals, focusing on developmental and educational psychology. The authors divide the chapter into four major sections: theories focused on expectancies for success (self-efficacy theory and control theory), theories focused on task value (theories focused on intrinsic motivation, self-determination, flow, interest, and goals), theories that integrate expectancies and values (attribution theory, the expectancy-value models of Eccles et al., Feather, and Heckhausen, and self-worth theory), and theories integrating motivation and cognition (social cognitive theories of self-regulation and motivation, the work by Winne & Marx, Borkowski et al., Pintrich et al., and theories of motivation and volition). The authors end the chapter with a discussion of how to integrate theories of self-regulation and expectancy-value models of motivation and suggest new directions for future research.

Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: what does it actually imply?

PubMed Central

Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

2017-01-01

Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed. PMID:27288541

General Strain Theory and Substance Use among American Indian Adolescents.

PubMed

Eitle, Tamela McNulty; Eitle, David; Johnson-Jennings, Michelle

2013-01-01

Despite the well-established finding that American Indian adolescents are at a greater risk of illicit substance use and abuse than the general population, few generalist explanations of deviance have been extended to American Indian substance use. Using a popular generalist explanation of deviance, General Strain Theory, we explore the predictive utility of this model with a subsample of American Indian adolescents from waves one and two of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add-Health). Overall, we find mixed support for the utility of General Strain Theory to account for American Indian adolescent substance use. While exposure to recent life events, a common measure of stress exposure, was found to be a robust indicator of substance use, we found mixed support for the thesis that negative affect plays a key role in mediating the link between strain and substance use. However, we did find evidence that personal and social resources serve to condition the link between stress exposure and substance use, with parental control, self-restraint, religiosity, and exposure to substance using peers each serving to moderate the association between strain and substance use, albeit in more complex ways than expected.

Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: What does it actually imply?

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

2016-09-07

Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

General Strain Theory and Substance Use among American Indian Adolescents

PubMed Central

Eitle, Tamela McNulty; Eitle, David; Johnson-Jennings, Michelle

2013-01-01

Despite the well-established finding that American Indian adolescents are at a greater risk of illicit substance use and abuse than the general population, few generalist explanations of deviance have been extended to American Indian substance use. Using a popular generalist explanation of deviance, General Strain Theory, we explore the predictive utility of this model with a subsample of American Indian adolescents from waves one and two of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add-Health). Overall, we find mixed support for the utility of General Strain Theory to account for American Indian adolescent substance use. While exposure to recent life events, a common measure of stress exposure, was found to be a robust indicator of substance use, we found mixed support for the thesis that negative affect plays a key role in mediating the link between strain and substance use. However, we did find evidence that personal and social resources serve to condition the link between stress exposure and substance use, with parental control, self-restraint, religiosity, and exposure to substance using peers each serving to moderate the association between strain and substance use, albeit in more complex ways than expected. PMID:23826511

Explaining happiness

PubMed Central

Easterlin, Richard A.

2003-01-01

What do social survey data tell us about the determinants of happiness? First, that the psychologists' setpoint model is questionable. Life events in the nonpecuniary domain, such as marriage, divorce, and serious disability, have a lasting effect on happiness, and do not simply deflect the average person temporarily above or below a setpoint given by genetics and personality. Second, mainstream economists' inference that in the pecuniary domain “more is better,” based on revealed preference theory, is problematic. An increase in income, and thus in the goods at one's disposal, does not bring with it a lasting increase in happiness because of the negative effect on utility of hedonic adaptation and social comparison. A better theory of happiness builds on the evidence that adaptation and social comparison affect utility less in the nonpecuniary than pecuniary domains. Because individuals fail to anticipate the extent to which adaptation and social comparison undermine expected utility in the pecuniary domain, they allocate an excessive amount of time to pecuniary goals, and shortchange nonpecuniary ends such as family life and health, reducing their happiness. There is need to devise policies that will yield better-informed individual preferences, and thereby increase individual and societal well-being. PMID:12958207

A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields.

PubMed

Bagarello, F; Haven, E; Khrennikov, A

2017-11-13

We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagarello, F.; Haven, E.; Khrennikov, A.

2017-10-01

We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

A new intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory

PubMed Central

Reyna, Valerie F.

2014-01-01

Combining meaning, memory, and development, the perennially popular topic of intuition can be approached in a new way. Fuzzy-trace theory integrates these topics by distinguishing between meaning-based gist representations, which support fuzzy (yet advanced) intuition, and superficial verbatim representations of information, which support precise analysis. Here, I review the counterintuitive findings that led to the development of the theory and its most recent extensions to the neuroscience of risky decision making. These findings include memory interference (worse verbatim memory is associated with better reasoning); nonnumerical framing (framing effects increase when numbers are deleted from decision problems); developmental decreases in gray matter and increases in brain connectivity; developmental reversals in memory, judgment, and decision making (heuristics and biases based on gist increase from childhood to adulthood, challenging conceptions of rationality); and selective attention effects that provide critical tests comparing fuzzy-trace theory, expected utility theory, and its variants (e.g., prospect theory). Surprising implications for judgment and decision making in real life are also discussed, notably, that adaptive decision making relies mainly on gist-based intuition in law, medicine, and public health. PMID:25530822

A new intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory.

PubMed

Reyna, Valerie F

2012-05-01

Combining meaning, memory, and development, the perennially popular topic of intuition can be approached in a new way. Fuzzy-trace theory integrates these topics by distinguishing between meaning-based gist representations, which support fuzzy (yet advanced) intuition, and superficial verbatim representations of information, which support precise analysis. Here, I review the counterintuitive findings that led to the development of the theory and its most recent extensions to the neuroscience of risky decision making. These findings include memory interference (worse verbatim memory is associated with better reasoning); nonnumerical framing (framing effects increase when numbers are deleted from decision problems); developmental decreases in gray matter and increases in brain connectivity; developmental reversals in memory, judgment, and decision making (heuristics and biases based on gist increase from childhood to adulthood, challenging conceptions of rationality); and selective attention effects that provide critical tests comparing fuzzy-trace theory, expected utility theory, and its variants (e.g., prospect theory). Surprising implications for judgment and decision making in real life are also discussed, notably, that adaptive decision making relies mainly on gist-based intuition in law, medicine, and public health.

What is the influence of self-image and perceived parenting role expectations on adolescent fathers' perceived role performance?

PubMed

Jones

2000-05-01

Background: "Adolescent pregnancy is one of the most pressing, persistent, and poignant problems facing society" (Yoos, 1987, p. 247). Manitoba's teen pregnancy rates are among the highest in Canada. Yet, little is known about adolescent fathers and their parenting involvement. The purpose of this descriptive correlational study was to explore variables which may influence teen fathers' participation in parenting.Methods: A convenience sample of 30 adolescent fathers, whose partners were attending an Adolescent Prenatal Clinic, completed two questionnaires: Offer Self-Image-Revised, and Perceived Parenting Role Performance. Guided by family role theory, four hypotheses were examined utilizing a quantitative research method.Results: Data analysis revealed that 30% of these respondents had a low to very low self-image. Pearson's correlation coefficient, which facilitated hypotheses testing, failed to validate a relationship between teen fathers' perceived role performance and self-image, and perceived parenting role expectations. Nevertheless, a moderate negative correlation was noted between teen fathers' self-image and their perceived parenting role expectations (r = -.35, p <.05).Conclusions: These findings contradict the philosophy of family role theory. Results of this study indicated that teen fathers want to be involved in parenting. However, unrealistic expectations and the inability to combine the developmental tasks of adolescence with the responsibilities of fatherhood increase their vulnerability to parenting failure.

Modeling Interpersonal Correlates of Condomless Anal Sex among Gay and Bisexual Men: An Application of Attachment Theory.

PubMed

Starks, Tyrel J; Castro, Michael A; Castiblanco, Juan P; Millar, Brett M

2017-05-01

The existing literature has identified that beliefs about the interpersonal meaning of condom use are a significant predictor of condomless anal sex (CAS). Some have suggested that condom use in this context may function as a form of nonverbal communication. This study utilized attachment theory as a framework and tested a hypothesized model linking adult attachment to CAS through communication skills and condom expectancies. An online survey was completed by 122 single, HIV-negative gay and bisexual (GB) men living in the U.S. They completed measures of adult attachment (anxious and avoidant), condom expectancies regarding intimacy and pleasure interference, communication skills, self-assessed mate value, and recent CAS with casual partners. There was a significant, positive bivariate association between anxious attachment and receptive CAS. In path model analyses, two over-arching pathways emerged. In the other-oriented pathway, anxious attachment, self-perceived mate value, and emotional communication predicted the belief that condoms interfere with intimacy. In turn, intimacy interference expectancies were positively associated with the odds of receptive CAS. In the self-oriented pathway, assertive communication skills mediated a link between avoidant attachment and the belief that condoms interfere with sexual pleasure. Pleasure interference expectancies were positively associated with the odds of insertive CAS. The findings highlight the importance of relational or interpersonal concerns in sexual risk-taking among single GB men. Attachment theory may serve as a framework for organizing these interpersonal correlates of CAS. Results are consistent with the conceptualization of condom use as a form of nonverbal attachment-related behavior. Implications for sexual health and risk-reduction interventions are explored in this context.

Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

PubMed

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

Integration of Model-Based Estimation Theory With an Adaptive Finite Volume Method for the Detection of a Moving Gaseous Source via a Mobile Sensor

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-29

couples the estimation scheme with the computational scheme, using one to enhance the other. Numerically, this switching changes several of the matrices...2011. 11. M.A. Demetriou, Enforcing and enhancing consensus of spatially distributed filters utilizing mobile sensor networks, Proceedings of the 49th...expected May, 2012. References [1] J. H. Seinfeld and S. N. Pandis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: From Air Pollution to Climate Change. New York

THE ROLE OF AFFECTIVE EXPERIENCE IN WORK MOTIVATION

PubMed Central

SEO, MYEONG-GU; BARRETT, LISA FELDMAN; BARTUNEK, JEAN M.

2005-01-01

Based on psychological and neurobiological theories of core affective experience, we identify a set of direct and indirect paths through which affective feelings at work affect three dimensions of behavioral outcomes: direction, intensity, and persistence. First, affective experience may influence these behavioral outcomes indirectly by affecting goal level and goal commitment, as well as three key judgment components of work motivation: expectancy judgments, utility judgments, and progress judgments. Second, affective experience may also affect these behavioral outcomes directly. We discuss implications of our model. PMID:16871321

The hydrogen atom in D = 3 - 2ɛ dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adkins, Gregory S.

2018-06-01

The nonrelativistic hydrogen atom in D = 3 - 2 ɛ dimensions is the reference system for perturbative schemes used in dimensionally regularized nonrelativistic effective field theories to describe hydrogen-like atoms. Solutions to the D-dimensional Schrödinger-Coulomb equation are given in the form of a double power series. Energies and normalization integrals are obtained numerically and also perturbatively in terms of ɛ. The utility of the series expansion is demonstrated by the calculation of the divergent expectation value <(V‧)2 >.

Evaluation of the Utility of the Theory of Signal Detection for Target Acquisition Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-10-01

also somewhat comparable to what can be expected in the real world when seeking a target. The number of stimuli will be kept at 60 treatments per...the three-dimensional world . This is due to the fact that beyond 300 to 500 feet, binocular cues are lost, and only nonocular cues dominate for depth...to real world .4- viewing (Fowler, 1972) Briefed or Unbriefed Targets. In an operational setting, targets can be briefed or unbriefed. While

Traversing psychological distance.

PubMed

Liberman, Nira; Trope, Yaacov

2014-07-01

Traversing psychological distance involves going beyond direct experience, and includes planning, perspective taking, and contemplating counterfactuals. Consistent with this view, temporal, spatial, and social distances as well as hypotheticality are associated, affect each other, and are inferred from one another. Moreover, traversing all distances involves the use of abstraction, which we define as forming a belief about the substitutability for a specific purpose of subjectively distinct objects. Indeed, across many instances of both abstraction and psychological distancing, more abstract constructs are used for more distal objects. Here, we describe the implications of this relation for prediction, choice, communication, negotiation, and self-control. We ask whether traversing distance is a general mental ability and whether distance should replace expectancy in expected-utility theories. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The value of foresight: how prospection affects decision-making.

PubMed

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

2011-01-01

Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread.

The Value of Foresight: How Prospection Affects Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

2011-01-01

Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread. PMID:21747755

Decision making in a multidisciplinary cancer team: does team discussion result in better quality decisions?

PubMed

Kee, Frank; Owen, Tracy; Leathem, Ruth

2004-01-01

To establish whether treatment recommendations made by clinicians concur with the best outcomes predicted from their prognostic estimates and whether team discussion improves the quality or outcome of their decision making, the authors studied real-time decision making by a lung cancer team. Clinicians completed pre- and postdiscussion questionnaires for 50 newly diagnosed patients. For each patient/doctor pairing, a decision model determined the expected patient outcomes from the clinician's prognostic estimates. The difference between the expected utility of the recommended treatment and the maximum utility derived from the clinician's predictions of the outcomes (the net utility loss) following all potential treatment modalities was calculated as an indicator of quality of the decision. The proportion of treatment decisions changed by the multidisciplinary team discussion was also calculated. Insofar as the change in net utility loss brought about by multidisciplinary team discussion was not significantly different from zero, team discussion did not improve the quality of decision making overall. However, given the modest power of the study, these findings must be interpreted with caution. In only 23 of 87 instances (26%) in which an individual specialist's initial treatment preference differed from the final group judgment did the specialist finally concur with the group treatment choice after discussion. This study does not support the theory that team discussion improves decision making by closing a knowledge gap.

Product Distribution Theory for Control of Multi-Agent Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Chia Fan; Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

Product Distribution (PD) theory is a new framework for controlling Multi-Agent Systems (MAS's). First we review one motivation of PD theory, as the information-theoretic extension of conventional full-rationality game theory to the case of bounded rational agents. In this extension the equilibrium of the game is the optimizer of a Lagrangian of the (probability distribution of) the joint stare of the agents. Accordingly we can consider a team game in which the shared utility is a performance measure of the behavior of the MAS. For such a scenario the game is at equilibrium - the Lagrangian is optimized - when the joint distribution of the agents optimizes the system's expected performance. One common way to find that equilibrium is to have each agent run a reinforcement learning algorithm. Here we investigate the alternative of exploiting PD theory to run gradient descent on the Lagrangian. We present computer experiments validating some of the predictions of PD theory for how best to do that gradient descent. We also demonstrate how PD theory can improve performance even when we are not allowed to rerun the MAS from different initial conditions, a requirement implicit in some previous work.

Applying signal-detection theory to the study of observer accuracy and bias in behavioral assessment.

PubMed

Lerman, Dorothea C; Tetreault, Allison; Hovanetz, Alyson; Bellaci, Emily; Miller, Jonathan; Karp, Hilary; Mahmood, Angela; Strobel, Maggie; Mullen, Shelley; Keyl, Alice; Toupard, Alexis

2010-01-01

We evaluated the feasibility and utility of a laboratory model for examining observer accuracy within the framework of signal-detection theory (SDT). Sixty-one individuals collected data on aggression while viewing videotaped segments of simulated teacher-child interactions. The purpose of Experiment 1 was to determine if brief feedback and contingencies for scoring accurately would bias responding reliably. Experiment 2 focused on one variable (specificity of the operational definition) that we hypothesized might decrease the likelihood of bias. The effects of social consequences and information about expected behavior change were examined in Experiment 3. Results indicated that feedback and contingencies reliably biased responding and that the clarity of the definition only moderately affected this outcome.

What attitudes and beliefs underlie patients' decisions about participating in chemotherapy trials?

PubMed

Sutherland, H J; da Cunha, R; Lockwood, G A; Till, J E

1998-01-01

The theory of reasoned action, which postulates that personal attitudes and external social influences predict intentions to undertake a behavior, was used as a conceptual framework for developing a questionnaire to elicit beliefs and attitudes associated with the decision to participate in a hypothetical cancer chemotherapy trial. After completing the questionnaire, two-thirds of the 150 respondents indicated they would enroll in such a trial if it were available. Considerable variation existed in both "universal" and "trial-specific" beliefs and attitudes underpinning their intentions. A substantial amount of the variance in "intention" to participate was explained by "attitude" alone (75%). Social influences, although statistically significant, made a mere 1% additional contribution. One interpretation is that subjective expected-utility theory, which essentially predicts beliefs or "attitude," is a better model. The authors conclude that both theories may be criticized regarding how well they capture the rationality and nuances of decision behavior.

Communication: CDFT-CI couplings can be unreliable when there is fractional charge transfer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavros, Michael G.; Van Voorhis, Troy, E-mail: tvan@mit.edu

2015-12-21

Constrained density functional theory with configuration interaction (CDFT-CI) is a useful, low-cost tool for the computational prediction of electronic couplings between pseudo-diabatic constrained electronic states. Such couplings are of paramount importance in electron transfer theory and transition state theory, among other areas of chemistry. Unfortunately, CDFT-CI occasionally fails significantly, predicting a coupling that does not decay exponentially with distance and/or overestimating the expected coupling by an order of magnitude or more. In this communication, we show that the eigenvalues of the difference density matrix between the two constrained states can be used as an a priori metric to determine whenmore » CDFT-CI are likely to be reliable: when the eigenvalues are near 0 or ±1, transfer of a whole electron is occurring, and CDFT-CI can be trusted. We demonstrate the utility of this metric with several illustrative examples.« less

Fitting observed and theoretical choices - women's choices about prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome.

PubMed

Seror, Valerie

2008-05-01

Choices regarding prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome - the most frequent chromosomal defect - are particularly relevant to decision analysis, since women's decisions are based on the assessment of their risk of carrying a child with Down syndrome, and involve tradeoffs (giving birth to an affected child vs procedure-related miscarriage). The aim of this study, based on face-to-face interviews with 78 women aged 25-35 with prior experience of pregnancy, was to compare the women' expressed choices towards prenatal diagnosis with those derived from theoretical models of choice (expected utility theory, rank-dependent theory, and cumulative prospect theory). The main finding obtained in this study was that the cumulative prospect model fitted the observed choices best: both subjective transformation of probabilities and loss aversion, which are basic features of the cumulative prospect model, have to be taken into account to make the observed choices consistent with the theoretical ones.

Communication: CDFT-CI couplings can be unreliable when there is fractional charge transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavros, Michael G.; Van Voorhis, Troy

2015-12-01

Constrained density functional theory with configuration interaction (CDFT-CI) is a useful, low-cost tool for the computational prediction of electronic couplings between pseudo-diabatic constrained electronic states. Such couplings are of paramount importance in electron transfer theory and transition state theory, among other areas of chemistry. Unfortunately, CDFT-CI occasionally fails significantly, predicting a coupling that does not decay exponentially with distance and/or overestimating the expected coupling by an order of magnitude or more. In this communication, we show that the eigenvalues of the difference density matrix between the two constrained states can be used as an a priori metric to determine when CDFT-CI are likely to be reliable: when the eigenvalues are near 0 or ±1, transfer of a whole electron is occurring, and CDFT-CI can be trusted. We demonstrate the utility of this metric with several illustrative examples.

Content-oriented Approach to Organization of Theories and Its Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Yusuke; Bourdeau, Jacqueline; Mizoguch, Riichiro

In spite of the fact that the relation between theory and practice is a foundation of scientific and technological development, the trend of increasing the gap between theory and practice accelerates in these years. The gap embraces a risk of distrust of science and technology. Ontological engineering as the content-oriented research is expected to contribute to the resolution of the gap. This paper presents the feasibility of organization of theoretical knowledge on ontological engineering and new-generation intelligent systems based on it through an application of ontological engineering in the area of learning/instruction support. This area also has the problem of the gap between theory and practice, and its resolution is strongly required. So far we proposed OMNIBUS ontology, which is a comprehensive ontology that covers different learning/instructional theories and paradigms, and SMARTIES, which is a theory-aware and standard-compliant authoring system for making learning/instructional scenarios based on OMNIBUS ontology. We believe the theory-awareness and standard-compliance bridge the gap between theory and practice because it links theories to practical use of standard technologies and enables practitioners to easily enjoy theoretical support while using standard technologies in practice. The following goals are set in order to achieve it; computers (1) understand a variety of learning/instructional theories based on the organization of them, (2) utilize the understanding for helping authors' learning/instructional scenario making and (3) make such theoretically sound scenarios interoperable within the framework of standard technologies. This paper suggests an ontological engineering solution to the achievement of these three goals. Although the evaluation is far from complete in terms of practical use, we believe that the results of this study address high-level technical challenges from the viewpoint of the current state of the art in the research area of artificial intelligence not only in education but also in general, and therefore we hope that constitute a substantial contribution for organization of theoretical knowledge in many other areas.

Empowerment as a leadership theory.

PubMed

Rajotte, C A

1996-01-01

Leadership of today is quite different from that of Caesar, Plato, the ancient Greeks, or the ancient Egyptians. Today's leaders utilize power-sharing, trust, team-building, and empowerment. Methods to achieve empowerment include educating, leading, structuring, providing, mentoring, and actualizing. Empowerment requires change in leadership methods to be effective. One must be able to identify change and work with others for change. Through the leadership style of empowerment, vision provides a shared set of values with a customer focus. Successful organizations which practice empowerment delegate and expect people to initiate, create and to feel ownership. Nurses need to be involved in their organizations and utilize empowerment leadership to be successful leaders of the future. With empowered employees, the organization, the customer, and the employee are all winners.

Expectancy Theory as a Predictor of Faculty Motivation to Use a Course Management System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turcan, Marian

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between the elements of the Expectancy theory and faculty motivation to use a course management system. Specifically it analyzed if the elements of the Expectancy theory (Valence, Instrumentality and Expectancy) were useful in predicting faculty motivation when using Blackboard tools in…

Convection effects on Skylab experiments M551, M552, and M553, phase C report. [metal melting, exothermic brazing, and sphere forming under weightless conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bourgeois, S. V.

1973-01-01

This report described an analysis of Skylab Experiments M551 (Metals Melting), M552 (Exothermic Brazing), and M553 (Sphere Forming). The primary objective is the study of convection in the molten metals and their attendant solidification theory. Particular attention is given to clarifying the effects of reduced gravity on molten metal flow and solidification. Based on an analysis of physical forces and solidification theory expected for ground-based and Skylab processing, low-g variations were predicted for each experiment. A comparison was then made with the Skylab results available to date. Both metallurgical analyses of other investigators and movies of ground-based and Skylab samples were utilized. Several low-g variations in Skylab processed materials were successfully predicted based on expected variations in physical forces and fluid convection. The same analysis also successfully predicted several features in the Skylab-processed materials which were identical to terrestrially-processed materials. These results are summarized in the conclusion section for each experiment.

The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas; Moutoussis, Michael; Behrens, Timothy; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behavior. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimizes the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimizes a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimizing free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action—constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualizes optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian) formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimization, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution—that minimizes free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behavior, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behavior entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control. PMID:24093015

Estimating sign-dependent societal preferences for quality of life.

PubMed

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; l'Haridon, Olivier; Pinto, Jose Luis

2015-09-01

This paper is the first to apply prospect theory to societal health-related decision making. In particular, we allow for utility curvature, equity weighting, sign-dependence, and loss aversion in choices concerning quality of life of other people. We find substantial inequity aversion, both for gains and losses, which can be attributed to both diminishing marginal utility and differential weighting of better-off and worse-off. There are also clear framing effects, which violate expected utility. Moreover, we observe loss aversion, indicating that subjects give more weight to one group's loss than another group's gain of the same absolute magnitude. We also elicited some information on the effect of the age of the studied group. The amount of inequity aversion is to some extent influenced by the age of the considered patients. In particular, more inequity aversion is observed for gains of older people than gains of younger people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Building intentions with the theory of planned behaviour: a qualitative assessment of salient beliefs about pharmacy value added services in Malaysia.

PubMed

Tan, Christine Liang Hoay; Hassali, Mohamed Azmi; Saleem, Fahad; Shafie, Asrul Akmal; Aljadhay, Hisham; Gan, Vincent B Y

2016-12-01

To improve pharmaceutical care delivery in Malaysia, the Ministry of Health (MOH) had introduced the concept of value added services (VAS). Despite its reported convenience and advantages, VAS utilization rate is low in the country. The study aims to explore patients' understanding, beliefs and expectations towards VAS in Malaysia using the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) as the theoretical model. A qualitative methodology was used whereby face-to-face interviews were conducted with 12 patients who collected partial medicine supplies from government pharmacies. Participants were recruited using purposive and snowball sampling method in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. Interviews were audio-recorded. Verbatim transcription and thematic content analysis were performed on the data. Thematic content analysis yielded five major themes: (i) attitudes towards using VAS, (ii) subjective norms, (iii) perceived behavioural control, (iv) lack of knowledge and understanding of VAS and (v) expectations towards VAS. The interviews explored and informed new information about salient beliefs towards pharmacy VAS. The findings suggest that VAS is still in its infancy and a more robust and effective advertising and marketing campaign is needed to boost the adoption rate. Behavioural attitudes, subjective norms and perceived control elements were discussed and serve as important variables of interest in future study. Expectations towards VAS serve as an important guideline to further improve patient-oriented services. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding sport continuation: an integration of the theories of planned behaviour and basic psychological needs.

PubMed

Gucciardi, Daniel F; Jackson, Ben

2015-01-01

Fostering individuals' long-term participation in activities that promote positive development such as organised sport is an important agenda for research and practice. We integrated the theories of planned behaviour (TPB) and basic psychological needs (BPN) to identify factors associated with young adults' continuation in organised sport over a 12-month period. Prospective study, including an online psycho-social assessment at Time 1 and an assessment of continuation in sport approximately 12 months later. Participants (N=292) aged between 17 and 21 years (M=18.03; SD=1.29) completed an online survey assessing the theories of planned behaviour and basic psychological needs constructs. Bayesian structural equation modelling (BSEM) was employed to test the hypothesised theoretical sequence, using informative priors for structural relations based on empirical and theoretical expectations. The analyses revealed support for the robustness of the hypothesised theoretical model in terms of the pattern of relations as well as the direction and strength of associations among the constructs derived from quantitative summaries of existing research and theoretical expectations. The satisfaction of basic psychological needs was associated with more positive attitudes, higher levels of perceived behavioural control, and more favourable subjective norms; positive attitudes and perceived behavioural control were associated with higher behavioural intentions; and both intentions and perceived behavioural control predicted sport continuation. This study demonstrated the utility of Bayesian structural equation modelling for testing the robustness of an integrated theoretical model, which is informed by empirical evidence from meta-analyses and theoretical expectations, for understanding sport continuation. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Web-Based Learning - Yes We Can!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, Ulrik

Web-based Learning has become a matter of fact at universities. We are now at the edge of new developments with Web 2.0 applications and social software is radically changing the way of how we communicate and share in social networks. Can we expect an analogous revolution for university education 2.0? I will give some arguments that I rather expect an incremental evolution than a radical change. First, I take a look at current eLearning implementations and organizational frameworks and give an example from RWTH Aachen University. Against the background of cognitive theories the utilization of Web 2.0 applications are promising to strengthen 21st century learning. But methods and tools must be adapted to the context of institutional learning as well as the formal regulations must be adjusted vice versa.

A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

PubMed

Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

2012-11-01

The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ < × < G), loss (MR ≤ x < SQ), and failure (x < MR). The psychological impact of achieving or failing to achieve these reference points is rank ordered as MR > G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Expected Utility Distributions for Flexible, Contingent Execution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bresina, John L.; Washington, Richard

2000-01-01

This paper presents a method for using expected utility distributions in the execution of flexible, contingent plans. A utility distribution maps the possible start times of an action to the expected utility of the plan suffix starting with that action. The contingent plan encodes a tree of possible courses of action and includes flexible temporal constraints and resource constraints. When execution reaches a branch point, the eligible option with the highest expected utility at that point in time is selected. The utility distributions make this selection sensitive to the runtime context, yet still efficient. Our approach uses predictions of action duration uncertainty as well as expectations of resource usage and availability to determine when an action can execute and with what probability. Execution windows and probabilities inevitably change as execution proceeds, but such changes do not invalidate the cached utility distributions, thus, dynamic updating of utility information is minimized.

Loss aversion, large deviation preferences and optimal portfolio weights for some classes of return processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, Ken; Lobunets, Olena; Suhov, Yuri

2007-05-01

We propose a model of a loss averse investor who aims to maximize his expected wealth under certain constraints. The constraints are that he avoids, with high probability, incurring an (suitably defined) unacceptable loss. The methodology employed comes from the theory of large deviations. We explore a number of fundamental properties of the model and illustrate its desirable features. We demonstrate its utility by analyzing assets that follow some commonly used financial return processes: Fractional Brownian Motion, Jump Diffusion, Variance Gamma and Truncated Lévy.

Are patient decision aids the best way to improve clinical decision making? Report of the IPDAS Symposium.

PubMed

Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Nelson, Wendy L; Pignone, Michael; Elwyn, Glyn; Rovner, David R; O'Connor, Annette M; Coulter, Angela; Correa-de-Araujo, Rosaly

2007-01-01

This article reports on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards Symposium held in 2006 at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The symposium featured a debate regarding the proposition that "decision aids are the best way to improve clinical decision making.'' The formal debate addressed the theoretical problem of the appropriate gold standard for an improved decision, efficacy of decision aids, and prospects for implementation. Audience comments and questions focused on both theory and practice: the often unacknowledged roots of decision aids in expected utility theory and the practical problems of limited patient decision aid implementation in health care. The participants' vote on the proposition was approximately half for and half against.

Ethics and environmental decision making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, R.J.

The subject of environmental ethics trends to be dominated by the idea that the right environmental actions require a change in the value systems of many people. The author argues that the rebirth approach is perverse in that moral attitudes are not easily changed by moral suasion. A properly ethical approach must begin where we are, as moderately moral people desiring the best for all. The real ethical problem is to develop procedures for collectively defining environmental ends that will be fair to the parties participating in the decision process. This idea is essentially utilitarian, and depends on the maximizationmore » of expected social utility. This type of environmental ethics is contrasted with current theories of social choice in welfare economics and with Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. 26 references.« less

Asymmetrically dominated choice problems, the isolation hypothesis and random incentive mechanisms.

PubMed

Cox, James C; Sadiraj, Vjollca; Schmidt, Ulrich

2014-01-01

This paper presents an experimental study of the random incentive mechanisms which are a standard procedure in economic and psychological experiments. Random incentive mechanisms have several advantages but are incentive-compatible only if responses to the single tasks are independent. This is true if either the independence axiom of expected utility theory or the isolation hypothesis of prospect theory holds. We present a simple test of this in the context of choice under risk. In the baseline (one task) treatment we observe risk behavior in a given choice problem. We show that by integrating a second, asymmetrically dominated choice problem in a random incentive mechanism risk behavior can be manipulated systematically. This implies that the isolation hypothesis is violated and the random incentive mechanism does not elicit true preferences in our example.

Examining Readmissions through the Zone of Tolerance Theory.

PubMed

Hackbarth, Gary; Fiedler, Kirk

2017-01-01

The relationship between readmissions and customer service expectations is examined through the lens of the Zone of Tolerance (ZoT) theory. ZoT theory is expanded to consider the potential conflicting expectations and nature of the payer and patent customer dichotomy of the healthcare industry. The paper will suggest opportunities to influence patient expectations and understanding. It will also present empirical methods for understanding and responding to payer service expectations.

Multimethod Prediction of Physical Parent-Child Aggression Risk in Expectant Mothers and Fathers with Social Information Processing Theory

PubMed Central

Rodriguez, Christina M.; Smith, Tamika L.; Silvia, Paul J.

2015-01-01

The Social Information Processing (SIP) model postulates that parents undergo a series of stages in implementing physical discipline that can escalate into physical child abuse. The current study utilized a multimethod approach to investigate whether SIP factors can predict risk of parent-child aggression (PCA) in a diverse sample of expectant mothers and fathers. SIP factors of PCA attitudes, negative child attributions, reactivity, and empathy were considered as potential predictors of PCA risk; additionally, analyses considered whether personal history of PCA predicted participants’ own PCA risk through its influence on their attitudes and attributions. Findings indicate that, for both mothers and fathers, history influenced attitudes but not attributions in predicting PCA risk, and attitudes and attributions predicted PCA risk; empathy and reactivity predicted negative child attributions for expectant mothers, but only reactivity significantly predicted attributions for expectant fathers. Path models for expectant mothers and fathers were remarkably similar. Overall, the findings provide support for major aspects of the SIP model. Continued work is needed in studying the progression of these factors across time for both mothers and fathers as well as the inclusion of other relevant ecological factors to the SIP model. PMID:26631420

The non-utility perspective on repowering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, S.C.

1995-06-01

For many months, repowering existing plants has been a popular industry topic. But, to many, there is the feeling that repowering is a totally utility subject. Regardless of your personal view, repowering is an important topic. Because of its position in the industry, Destec is very interested and is very involved in repowering. Because of the broad topical dialogue of repowering over the last few years, many conferences have covered most of the technical and thermodynamic theory. I expect most are well informed of the dynamics of combining the Brayton and Rankine cycles and the several ways this can bemore » done. But repowering has become broader than just creating such combined cycles, it addresses many of the auxiliary issues like fuel diversity, asset redeployment, and ownership.« less

Using the false memory paradigm to test two key elements of alcohol expectancy theory.

PubMed

Reich, Richard R; Goldman, Mark S; Noll, Jane A

2004-05-01

Two key aspects of alcohol expectancy theory--(a) that memories about alcohol effects are stored as relatively cohesive templates of information and (b) that these templates are automatically activated in alcohol-related contexts--were tested using the Deese-Roediger- McDermott false memory paradigm. Alcohol expectancy adjectives were studied, and false memory for expectancy target words was tested in neutral and alcohol contexts. Results indicated that in the alcohol context heavier drinkers showed more false memory for alcohol expectancy words than they did in a neutral context. Differences were not found for lighter drinkers. These results were consistent with alcohol expectancy theory, which was then compared with various forms of association theory in explaining these results and larger issues in the addiction field. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

The Role of Client Expectancies in Counseling: The Research and Theory of Bandura and Tinsley.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thiessen, Sarah H.

Increasing evidence supports the idea that client expectancies have a large impact on counseling relationships, processes, and outcomes. Research and theories regarding expectancies are examined in this paper. Albert Bandura's theory of self-efficacy is discussed first to provide a background for understanding the significance of efficacy…

Modifying Status Relations in Israel Youth: An Application of Expectation States Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Elizabeth G.; Sharan, Shlomo

Group participation by Israeli youth is examined in light of the Theory of Status Characteristics and Expectation States. This theory maintains that social and/or group status influences expectations of competence and triggers self-fulfilling prophecies of performance. An experiment designed to prevent unwanted dominance of high status…

The middle way of evolution

PubMed Central

Hunt, Tam

2012-01-01

This essay provides a critical review of two recent books on evolution: Richard Dawkins’ The Greatest Show on Earth, and Jerry Coyne’s Why Evolution is True, as well as a critique of mainstream evolutionary theory and of natural selection. I also suggest a generalization of sexual selection theory that acknowledges mind as pervasive in nature. Natural selection, as the primary theory of how biological change occurs, must be carefully framed to avoid the long-standing “tautology problem” and must also be modified to more explicitly include the role of mind in evolution. A propensity approach to natural selection, in which “expected fitness” is utilized rather than “fitness,” can save natural selection from tautology. But to be a productive theory, natural selection theory should be placed alongside sexual selection – which is explicitly agentic/intentional – as a twin force, but also placed alongside purely endogenous factors such as genetic drift. This framing is contrary to the normal convention that often groups all of these factors under the rubric of “natural selection.” I suggest some approaches for improving modern evolutionary theory, including a “generalized sexual selection,” a panpsychist extension of Darwin’s theory of sexual selection that explicitly recognizes the role of mind at all levels of nature and which may play the part of a general theory of evolution better than natural selection theory. PMID:23181154

Application of symbolic computations to the constitutive modeling of structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Steven M.; Tan, H. Q.; Dong, X.

1990-01-01

In applications involving elevated temperatures, the derivation of mathematical expressions (constitutive equations) describing the material behavior can be quite time consuming, involved and error-prone. Therefore intelligent application of symbolic systems to faciliate this tedious process can be of significant benefit. Presented here is a problem oriented, self contained symbolic expert system, named SDICE, which is capable of efficiently deriving potential based constitutive models in analytical form. This package, running under DOE MACSYMA, has the following features: (1) potential differentiation (chain rule), (2) tensor computations (utilizing index notation) including both algebraic and calculus; (3) efficient solution of sparse systems of equations; (4) automatic expression substitution and simplification; (5) back substitution of invariant and tensorial relations; (6) the ability to form the Jacobian and Hessian matrix; and (7) a relational data base. Limited aspects of invariant theory were also incorporated into SDICE due to the utilization of potentials as a starting point and the desire for these potentials to be frame invariant (objective). The uniqueness of SDICE resides in its ability to manipulate expressions in a general yet pre-defined order and simplify expressions so as to limit expression growth. Results are displayed, when applicable, utilizing index notation. SDICE was designed to aid and complement the human constitutive model developer. A number of examples are utilized to illustrate the various features contained within SDICE. It is expected that this symbolic package can and will provide a significant incentive to the development of new constitutive theories.

Adolescent women's contraceptive decision making.

PubMed

Weisman, C S; Plichta, S; Nathanson, C A; Chase, G A; Ensminger, M E; Robinson, J C

1991-06-01

A modified rational decision model incorporating salient events and social influences (particularly from sexual partners) is used to analyze adolescent women's consistent use of oral contraceptives (OCs) over a six-month period. Data are taken from a panel study of 308 clients of an inner-city family planning clinic. Expected OC use was computed for each subject on the basis of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, and is found in multivariate analyses to be a significant predictor of actual OC use. In addition, variables representing baseline and follow-up partner influences, the salience of pregnancy for the subject, and positive side effects of OCs during the first months of use are found to predict OC use. Partner's support of OC use during follow-up and positive side effects of OCs are found to predict OC use among subjects for whom OC use was not the expected decision according to baseline SEU. Implications of the findings for models of adolescents' contraceptive behavior and for clinicians are discussed.

Local Choices: Rationality and the Contextuality of Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Vlaev, Ivo

2018-01-01

Rational explanation is ubiquitous in psychology and social sciences, ranging from rational analysis, expectancy-value theories, ideal observer models, mental logic to probabilistic frameworks, rational choice theory, and informal “folk psychological” explanation. However, rational explanation appears to be challenged by apparently systematic irrationality observed in psychological experiments, especially in the field of judgement and decision-making (JDM). Here, it is proposed that the experimental results require not that rational explanation should be rejected, but that rational explanation is local, i.e., within a context. Thus, rational models need to be supplemented with a theory of contextual shifts. We review evidence in JDM that patterns of choices are often consistent within contexts, but unstable between contexts. We also demonstrate that for a limited, though reasonably broad, class of decision-making domains, recent theoretical models can be viewed as providing theories of contextual shifts. It is argued that one particular significant source of global inconsistency arises from a cognitive inability to represent absolute magnitudes, whether for perceptual variables, utilities, payoffs, or probabilities. This overall argument provides a fresh perspective on the scope and limits of human rationality. PMID:29301289

Adaptive Multi-Agent Systems for Constrained Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macready, William; Bieniawski, Stefan; Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

Product Distribution (PD) theory is a new framework for analyzing and controlling distributed systems. Here we demonstrate its use for distributed stochastic optimization. First we review one motivation of PD theory, as the information-theoretic extension of conventional full-rationality game theory to the case of bounded rational agents. In this extension the equilibrium of the game is the optimizer of a Lagrangian of the (probability distribution of) the joint state of the agents. When the game in question is a team game with constraints, that equilibrium optimizes the expected value of the team game utility, subject to those constraints. The updating of the Lagrange parameters in the Lagrangian can be viewed as a form of automated annealing, that focuses the MAS more and more on the optimal pure strategy. This provides a simple way to map the solution of any constrained optimization problem onto the equilibrium of a Multi-Agent System (MAS). We present computer experiments involving both the Queen s problem and K-SAT validating the predictions of PD theory and its use for off-the-shelf distributed adaptive optimization.

Local Choices: Rationality and the Contextuality of Decision-Making.

PubMed

Vlaev, Ivo

2018-01-02

Rational explanation is ubiquitous in psychology and social sciences, ranging from rational analysis, expectancy-value theories, ideal observer models, mental logic to probabilistic frameworks, rational choice theory, and informal "folk psychological" explanation. However, rational explanation appears to be challenged by apparently systematic irrationality observed in psychological experiments, especially in the field of judgement and decision-making (JDM). Here, it is proposed that the experimental results require not that rational explanation should be rejected, but that rational explanation is local , i.e., within a context. Thus, rational models need to be supplemented with a theory of contextual shifts. We review evidence in JDM that patterns of choices are often consistent within contexts, but unstable between contexts. We also demonstrate that for a limited, though reasonably broad, class of decision-making domains, recent theoretical models can be viewed as providing theories of contextual shifts. It is argued that one particular significant source of global inconsistency arises from a cognitive inability to represent absolute magnitudes, whether for perceptual variables, utilities, payoffs, or probabilities. This overall argument provides a fresh perspective on the scope and limits of human rationality.

Empirical kinetics and their role in elucidating the utility of transition-state theory to mineral–water reactions. A comment upon, ''Evidence and Potential Implications of Exponential Tails to Concentration Versus Time Plots for the Batch Dissolution of Calcite'' by V. W. Truesdale

DOE PAGES

Icenhower, Jonathan P.

2015-06-23

Transition-state theory (TST) is a successful theory for understanding many different types of reactions, but its application to mineral-water systems has not been successful, especially as the system approaches saturation with respect to a rate-limiting phase. A number of investigators have proposed alternate frameworks for using the kinetic rate data to construct models of dissolution, including Truesdale (Aquat Geochem, 2015; this issue). This alternate approach has been resisted, in spite of self-evident discrepancies between TST expectations and the data. The failure of TST under certain circumstances is a result of the presence of metastable intermediaries or reaction layers that formmore » on the surface of reacting solids, and these phenomena are not anticipated by the current theory. Furthermore, alternate approaches, such as the shrinking object model advocated by Truesdale, represent a potentially important avenue for advancing the science of dissolution kinetics.« less

Exaggerated risk: prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice.

PubMed

Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Ayton, Peter; Dent, John; Chater, Nick

2009-11-01

In 5 experiments, we studied precautionary decisions in which participants decided whether or not to buy insurance with specified cost against an undesirable event with specified probability and cost. We compared the risks taken for precautionary decisions with those taken for equivalent monetary gambles. Fitting these data to Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) prospect theory, we found that the weighting function required to model precautionary decisions differed from that required for monetary gambles. This result indicates a failure of the descriptive invariance axiom of expected utility theory. For precautionary decisions, people overweighted small, medium-sized, and moderately large probabilities-they exaggerated risks. This effect is not anticipated by prospect theory or experience-based decision research (Hertwig, Barron, Weber, & Erev, 2004). We found evidence that exaggerated risk is caused by the accessibility of events in memory: The weighting function varies as a function of the accessibility of events. This suggests that people's experiences of events leak into decisions even when risk information is explicitly provided. Our findings highlight a need to investigate how variation in decision content produces variation in preferences for risk.

Indirect scaling methods for testing quantitative emotion theories.

PubMed

Junge, Martin; Reisenzein, Rainer

2013-01-01

Two studies investigated the utility of indirect scaling methods, based on graded pair comparisons, for the testing of quantitative emotion theories. In Study 1, we measured the intensity of relief and disappointment caused by lottery outcomes, and in Study 2, the intensity of disgust evoked by pictures, using both direct intensity ratings and graded pair comparisons. The stimuli were systematically constructed to reflect variables expected to influence the intensity of the emotions according to theoretical models of relief/disappointment and disgust, respectively. Two probabilistic scaling methods were used to estimate scale values from the pair comparison judgements: Additive functional measurement (AFM) and maximum likelihood difference scaling (MLDS). The emotion models were fitted to the direct and indirect intensity measurements using nonlinear regression (Study 1) and analysis of variance (Study 2). Both studies found substantially improved fits of the emotion models for the indirectly determined emotion intensities, with their advantage being evident particularly at the level of individual participants. The results suggest that indirect scaling methods yield more precise measurements of emotion intensity than rating scales and thereby provide stronger tests of emotion theories in general and quantitative emotion theories in particular.

When hope and fear collide: Expectations and experiences of first-year doctoral students in the natural sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, C. Sean

Although there is a significant body of research on the process of undergraduate education and retention, much less research exists as it relates to the doctoral experience, which is intended to be transformational in nature. At each stage of the process students are presented with a unique set of challenges and experiences that must be negotiated and mastered. However, we know very little about entering students' expectations, beliefs, goals, and identities, and how these may or may not change over time within a doctoral program. Utilizing a framework built upon socialization theory and cognitive-ecological theory, this dissertation examines the expectations that incoming doctoral students have about their programs as well as the actual experiences that these students have during their first year. Interviews were conducted with twelve students from the departments of Botany, Chemistry, and Physics prior to matriculation into their respective doctoral programs. These initial interviews provided information about students' expectations. Interviews were then conducted approximately every six to eight weeks to assess students' perceptions about their actual experiences throughout their first year. The findings of this study showed that new doctoral students tend to have uninformed and naive expectations about their programs. In addition, many of the specific policies or procedures necessary for navigation through a doctoral program were unknown to the students. While few differences existed in terms of students' expectations based on gender or discipline, there were significant differences in how international students described their expectations compared to American students. The two primary differences between American and international students revolved around the role of faculty members and the language barrier. It is clear that the first year of doctoral study is indeed a year of transition. The nature and clarity of the expectations associated with the role of 'graduate student' can have demonstrable effects on the lives of students. In addition, the behavior of graduate students is related to how they define or interpret their roles as students. There are numerous implications for both policy & practice to assist doctoral students in developing clear and informed expectations, and to help them navigate through their first year.

A systems theory approach to career development: Exploring factors that affect science as a career choice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liskey, Brian K.

This research project was designed to examine the factors that affect students' choice in a career. Specifically, the factors of (a) achievement, (b) interest, (c) self-efficacy, (d) perceived preparation for a career, and (e) being informed about a career will be under investigation. Of key importance to the study is how these factors can affect a student's perception about choosing a science career. A quantitative analysis of secondary data from the 2006 and 2009 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) international assessment and attitudinal questionnaire provided data on student perceptions and aptitude in science. The sample from PISA included over 400,000 15 year-old students from 57 countries. From the 57 countries, 30 countries, comprised by Organization for Economic and Cooperative Development (OECD), were isolated for analysis. Within this group of 30, 11 were selected for comparison based on their questionnaire response to expectations for a career in science at age 30. The Institute for Educational Science's, International Data Explorer was utilized to acquire and analyze data from the 2006 and 2009 PISA international tests and questionnaires to determine significance between scaled scores and PISA indices. Variables were chosen as factors affecting student's perception on various systems outlined by the Systems Theory of Career Development (Patton & McMahon, 1997) and the Systems Theory of Career Development Framework (Patton & McMahon, 1999). Four country groups were established based on student responses to question 30a from the 2006 PISA attitudinal questionnaire, which asks what career students expected to have at age 30. The results from comparing country groups showed that countries in Group A, which showed the highest values for students expecting a career in science, also had the highest average values for achievement on the PISA science literacy assessment. Likewise, countries that had the lowest values for expecting a career in science (Group B) also had the lowest average values for achievement in science as assessed by science literacy score according to PISA. The United States (Group C) and the International Average (Group D) were both intermediate in each of the two categories. The analysis also showed an identical country group sequence from highest responses to lowest responses for the "systems" or variables of a) self-efficacy, b) preparation for a science career, and c) information about a career in science. The group sequence from high to low values was Group C, Group B, Group D, Group A. When comparing this country group sequence there appears to be a weak negative association between students in countries that expect a career in science and the values for self-efficacy, being prepared for, and informed about a career in science. The findings from this study indicate that the greatest factor affecting students' perception for expecting a career in science is high achievement in science. These results provide key insight on the Systems Theory of Career Development missing from the existing body of literature. Leaders in the fields of education and educational policy can use this information to guide practices and promote programs that will aid in higher achievement in science and engineering. This research can also be used by leaders in career counseling to advise students on appropriate career paths and prepare students for future careers in science and technology. Finally, leadership within state and federal institutions can utilize results from this study to guide future research and funding that encourages students on career pathways in the fields of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM).

A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenblatt, R. E.

2014-12-01

The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

Comparing diagnostic tests on benefit-risk.

PubMed

Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Evans, Scott

2016-01-01

Comparing diagnostic tests on accuracy alone can be inconclusive. For example, a test may have better sensitivity than another test yet worse specificity. Comparing tests on benefit risk may be more conclusive because clinical consequences of diagnostic error are considered. For benefit-risk evaluation, we propose diagnostic yield, the expected distribution of subjects with true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative test results in a hypothetical population. We construct a table of diagnostic yield that includes the number of false positive subjects experiencing adverse consequences from unnecessary work-up. We then develop a decision theory for evaluating tests. The theory provides additional interpretation to quantities in the diagnostic yield table. It also indicates that the expected utility of a test relative to a perfect test is a weighted accuracy measure, the average of sensitivity and specificity weighted for prevalence and relative importance of false positive and false negative testing errors, also interpretable as the cost-benefit ratio of treating non-diseased and diseased subjects. We propose plots of diagnostic yield, weighted accuracy, and relative net benefit of tests as functions of prevalence or cost-benefit ratio. Concepts are illustrated with hypothetical screening tests for colorectal cancer with test positive subjects being referred to colonoscopy.

Parent-adolescent communication about sexual intercourse: an analysis of maternal reluctance to communicate.

PubMed

Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; Jaccard, James; Dittus, Patricia; Collins, Sarah

2008-11-01

A unified theory of behavior was applied to parent-adolescent communication about sexual intercourse to understand why some mothers speak less often with their children about not having sexual intercourse. According to the theory, parental decisions or intentions to engage in such conversations are a function of expectancies, social norms, self-concept, emotions, and self-efficacy. Data were collected from a random sample of 668 mother-adolescent dyads recruited from middle schools located in the Bronx community of New York City. Data were collected via self-administered surveys. Mother and adolescent reports on the frequency of parent-adolescent communication about sexual intercourse were obtained. Adolescents and mothers reported how often the mother had discussed 21 topics related to sexual behavior. Results supported the utility of the framework for understanding parent-adolescent communication about sexual intercourse. Significant maternal correlates included (a) expectancies about lacking knowledge, being embarrassed and encouraging children to think maturely and focus on school; (b) self-concept and perceiving that mothers who didn't talk with their children about sex were irresponsible; (c) emotions about feeling relaxed and comfortable; and (d) self-efficacy about the ease of talking with one's child. Implications for family based prevention programs are discussed.

Optimal no-go theorem on hidden-variable predictions of effect expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blass, Andreas; Gurevich, Yuri

2018-03-01

No-go theorems prove that, under reasonable assumptions, classical hidden-variable theories cannot reproduce the predictions of quantum mechanics. Traditional no-go theorems proved that hidden-variable theories cannot predict correctly the values of observables. Recent expectation no-go theorems prove that hidden-variable theories cannot predict the expectations of observables. We prove the strongest expectation-focused no-go theorem to date. It is optimal in the sense that the natural weakenings of the assumptions and the natural strengthenings of the conclusion make the theorem fail. The literature on expectation no-go theorems strongly suggests that the expectation-focused approach is more general than the value-focused one. We establish that the expectation approach is not more general.

Multiattribute health utility scoring for the computerized adaptive measure CAT-5D-QOL was developed and validated.

PubMed

Kopec, Jacek A; Sayre, Eric C; Rogers, Pamela; Davis, Aileen M; Badley, Elizabeth M; Anis, Aslam H; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Russell, Lara; Rahman, Md Mushfiqur; Esdaile, John M

2015-10-01

The CAT-5D-QOL is a previously reported item response theory (IRT)-based computerized adaptive tool to measure five domains (attributes) of health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a multiattribute health utility (MAHU) scoring method for this instrument. The MAHU scoring system was developed in two stages. In phase I, we obtained standard gamble (SG) utilities for 75 hypothetical health states in which only one domain varied (15 states per domain). In phase II, we obtained SG utilities for 256 multiattribute states. We fit a multiplicative regression model to predict SG utilities from the five IRT domain scores. The prediction model was constrained using data from phase I. We validated MAHU scores by comparing them with the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) and directly measured utilities and by assessing between-group discrimination. MAHU scores have a theoretical range from -0.842 to 1. In the validation study, the scores were, on average, higher than HUI3 utilities and lower than directly measured SG utilities. MAHU scores correlated strongly with the HUI3 (Spearman ρ = 0.78) and discriminated well between groups expected to differ in health status. Results reported here provide initial evidence supporting the validity of the MAHU scoring system for the CAT-5D-QOL. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Basic Knowledge for Market Principle: Approaches to the Price Coordination Mechanism by Using Optimization Theory and Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiyoshi, Eitaro; Masuda, Kazuaki

On the basis of market fundamentalism, new types of social systems with the market mechanism such as electricity trading markets and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission trading markets have been developed. However, there are few textbooks in science and technology which present the explanation that Lagrange multipliers can be interpreted as market prices. This tutorial paper explains that (1) the steepest descent method for dual problems in optimization, and (2) Gauss-Seidel method for solving the stationary conditions of Lagrange problems with market principles, can formulate the mechanism of market pricing, which works even in the information-oriented modern society. The authors expect readers to acquire basic knowledge on optimization theory and algorithms related to economics and to utilize them for designing the mechanism of more complicated markets.

Oppression of the bereaved: a critical analysis of grief in Western society.

PubMed

Harris, Darcy

Bereaved individuals often experience profound social pressure to conform to societal norms that constrict the experience of grief rather than support it. This article explores grief in Western society through an analysis of the underlying structures and values that are a part of this social system, utilizing the lens of critical theory. Critical theory examines social norms and conditions in order to identify and expose oppression in various contexts. This article examines the social rules that govern the expression of grief, the role of attachment, social pain, and shame as potent forces that promote compliance with social rules, and the ways that the underlying assumptions and values in Western society shape how bereaved individuals are expected to react. Implications for clinicians who work with terminally ill or bereaved individuals are then reviewed.

A model for rotorcraft flying qualities studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mittal, Manoj; Costello, Mark F.

1993-01-01

This paper outlines the development of a mathematical model that is expected to be useful for rotorcraft flying qualities research. A computer model is presented that can be applied to a range of different rotorcraft configurations. The algorithm computes vehicle trim and a linear state-space model of the aircraft. The trim algorithm uses non linear optimization theory to solve the nonlinear algebraic trim equations. The linear aircraft equations consist of an airframe model and a flight control system dynamic model. The airframe model includes coupled rotor and fuselage rigid body dynamics and aerodynamics. The aerodynamic model for the rotors utilizes blade element theory and a three state dynamic inflow model. Aerodynamics of the fuselage and fuselage empennages are included. The linear state-space description for the flight control system is developed using standard block diagram data.

Assigning values to intermediate health states for cost-utility analysis: theory and practice.

PubMed

Cohen, B J

1996-01-01

Cost-utility analysis (CUA) was developed to guide the allocation of health care resources under a budget constraint. As the generally stated goal of CUA is to maximize aggregate health benefits, the philosophical underpinning of this method is classic utilitarianism. Utilitarianism has been criticized as a basis for social choice because of its emphasis on the net sum of benefits without regard to the distribution of benefits. For example, it has been argued that absolute priority should be given to the worst off when making social choices affecting basic needs. Application of classic utilitarianism requires use of strength-of-preference utilities, assessed under conditions of certainty, to assign quality-adjustment factors to intermediate health states. The two methods commonly used to measure strength-of-preference utility, categorical scaling and time tradeoff, produce rankings that systematically give priority to those who are better off. Alternatively, von Neumann-Morgenstern utilities, assessed under conditions of uncertainty, could be used to assign values to intermediate health states. The theoretical basis for this would be Harsanyi's proposal that social choice be made under the hypothetical assumption that one had an equal chance of being anyone in society. If this proposal is accepted, as well as the expected-utility axioms applied to both individual choice and social choice, the preferred societal arrangement is that with the highest expected von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. In the presence of risk aversion, this will give some priority to the worst-off relative to classic utilitarianism. Another approach is to raise the values obtained by time-tradeoff assessments to a power a between 0 and 1. This would explicitly give priority to the worst off, with the degree of priority increasing as a decreases. Results could be presented over a range of a. The results of CUA would then provide useful information to those holding a range of philosophical points of view.

Probing for the Multiplicative Term in Modern Expectancy-Value Theory: A Latent Interaction Modeling Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trautwein, Ulrich; Marsh, Herbert W.; Nagengast, Benjamin; Ludtke, Oliver; Nagy, Gabriel; Jonkmann, Kathrin

2012-01-01

In modern expectancy-value theory (EVT) in educational psychology, expectancy and value beliefs additively predict performance, persistence, and task choice. In contrast to earlier formulations of EVT, the multiplicative term Expectancy x Value in regression-type models typically plays no major role in educational psychology. The present study…

Teach It, Don't Preach It: The Differential Effects of Directly-communicated and Self-generated Utility Value Information.

PubMed

Canning, Elizabeth A; Harackiewicz, Judith M

2015-03-01

Social-psychological interventions in education have used a variety of "self-persuasion" or "saying-is-believing" techniques to encourage students to articulate key intervention messages. These techniques are used in combination with more overt strategies, such as the direct communication of messages in order to promote attitude change. However, these different strategies have rarely been systematically compared, particularly in controlled laboratory settings. We focus on one intervention based in expectancy-value theory designed to promote perceptions of utility value in the classroom and test different intervention techniques to promote interest and performance. Across three laboratory studies, we used a mental math learning paradigm in which we varied whether students wrote about utility value for themselves or received different forms of directly-communicated information about the utility value of a novel mental math technique. In Study 1, we examined the difference between directly-communicated and self-generated utility-value information and found that directly-communicated utility-value information undermined performance and interest for individuals who lacked confidence, but that self-generated utility had positive effects. However, Study 2 suggests that these negative effects of directly-communicated utility value can be ameliorated when participants are also given the chance to generate their own examples of utility value, revealing a synergistic effect of directly-communicated and self-generated utility value. In Study 3, we found that individuals who lacked confidence benefited more when everyday examples of utility value were communicated, rather than career and school examples.

Locus of Control and Academic Achievement: Integrating Social Learning Theory and Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Youse, Keith Edward

2012-01-01

The current study examines predictors of math achievement and college graduation by integrating social learning theory and expectancy-value theory. Data came from a nationally-representative longitudinal database tracking 12,144 students over twelve years from 8th grade forward. Models for math achievement and college graduation were tested…

Applying Expectancy Theory to residency training: proposing opportunities to understand resident motivation and enhance residency training

PubMed Central

Shweiki, Ehyal; Martin, Niels D; Beekley, Alec C; Jenoff, Jay S; Koenig, George J; Kaulback, Kris R; Lindenbaum, Gary A; Patel, Pankaj H; Rosen, Matthew M; Weinstein, Michael S; Zubair, Muhammad H; Cohen, Murray J

2015-01-01

Medical resident education in the United States has been a matter of national priority for decades, exemplified initially through the Liaison Committee for Graduate Medical Education and then superseded by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education. A recent Special Report in the New England Journal of Medicine, however, has described resident educational programs to date as prescriptive, noting an absence of innovation in education. Current aims of contemporary medical resident education are thus being directed at ensuring quality in learning as well as in patient care. Achievement and work-motivation theories attempt to explain people’s choice, performance, and persistence in tasks. Expectancy Theory as one such theory was reviewed in detail, appearing particularly applicable to surgical residency training. Correlations between Expectancy Theory as a work-motivation theory and residency education were explored. Understanding achievement and work-motivation theories affords an opportunity to gain insight into resident motivation in training. The application of Expectancy Theory in particular provides an innovative perspective into residency education. Afforded are opportunities to promote the development of programmatic methods facilitating surgical resident motivation in education. PMID:25995656

Applying Expectancy Theory to residency training: proposing opportunities to understand resident motivation and enhance residency training.

PubMed

Shweiki, Ehyal; Martin, Niels D; Beekley, Alec C; Jenoff, Jay S; Koenig, George J; Kaulback, Kris R; Lindenbaum, Gary A; Patel, Pankaj H; Rosen, Matthew M; Weinstein, Michael S; Zubair, Muhammad H; Cohen, Murray J

2015-01-01

Medical resident education in the United States has been a matter of national priority for decades, exemplified initially through the Liaison Committee for Graduate Medical Education and then superseded by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education. A recent Special Report in the New England Journal of Medicine, however, has described resident educational programs to date as prescriptive, noting an absence of innovation in education. Current aims of contemporary medical resident education are thus being directed at ensuring quality in learning as well as in patient care. Achievement and work-motivation theories attempt to explain people's choice, performance, and persistence in tasks. Expectancy Theory as one such theory was reviewed in detail, appearing particularly applicable to surgical residency training. Correlations between Expectancy Theory as a work-motivation theory and residency education were explored. Understanding achievement and work-motivation theories affords an opportunity to gain insight into resident motivation in training. The application of Expectancy Theory in particular provides an innovative perspective into residency education. Afforded are opportunities to promote the development of programmatic methods facilitating surgical resident motivation in education.

The evolution of utility functions and psychological altruism.

PubMed

Clavien, Christine; Chapuisat, Michel

2016-04-01

Numerous studies show that humans tend to be more cooperative than expected given the assumption that they are rational maximizers of personal gain. As a result, theoreticians have proposed elaborated formal representations of human decision-making, in which utility functions including "altruistic" or "moral" preferences replace the purely self-oriented "Homo economicus" function. Here we review mathematical approaches that provide insights into the mathematical stability of alternative utility functions. Candidate utility functions may be evaluated with help of game theory, classical modeling of social evolution that focuses on behavioral strategies, and modeling of social evolution that focuses directly on utility functions. We present the advantages of the latter form of investigation and discuss one surprisingly precise result: "Homo economicus" as well as "altruistic" utility functions are less stable than a function containing a preference for the common welfare that is only expressed in social contexts composed of individuals with similar preferences. We discuss the contribution of mathematical models to our understanding of human other-oriented behavior, with a focus on the classical debate over psychological altruism. We conclude that human can be psychologically altruistic, but that psychological altruism evolved because it was generally expressed towards individuals that contributed to the actor's fitness, such as own children, romantic partners and long term reciprocators. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do Alcohol Expectancy Outcomes and Valuations Mediate Peer Influences and Lifetime Alcohol Use among Early Adolescents?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zamboanga, Byron L.; Schwartz, Seth J.; Ham, Lindsay S.; Jarvis, Lorna Hernandez; Olthuis, Janine V.

2009-01-01

Building on the theory of reasoned action (I. Ajzen & M. Fishbein, 1973, 1980; M. Fishbein & I. Ajzen, 1975) and expectancy theory, the authors examined the mediating role of alcohol expectancies in adolescent drinking behaviors by testing whether alcohol expectancy outcomes and valuations (the extent to which these outcomes are perceived…

Use of groundwater lifetime expectancy for the performance assessment of a deep geologic waste repository: 1. Theory, illustrations, and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornaton, F. J.; Park, Y.-J.; Normani, S. D.; Sudicky, E. A.; Sykes, J. F.

2008-04-01

Long-term solutions for the disposal of toxic wastes usually involve isolation of the wastes in a deep subsurface geologic environment. In the case of spent nuclear fuel, if radionuclide leakage occurs from the engineered barrier, the geological medium represents the ultimate barrier that is relied upon to ensure safety. Consequently, an evaluation of radionuclide travel times from a repository to the biosphere is critically important in a performance assessment analysis. In this study, we develop a travel time framework based on the concept of groundwater lifetime expectancy as a safety indicator. Lifetime expectancy characterizes the time that radionuclides will spend in the subsurface after their release from the repository and prior to discharging into the biosphere. The probability density function of lifetime expectancy is computed throughout the host rock by solving the backward-in-time solute transport adjoint equation subject to a properly posed set of boundary conditions. It can then be used to define optimal repository locations. The risk associated with selected sites can be evaluated by simulating an appropriate contaminant release history. The utility of the method is illustrated by means of analytical and numerical examples, which focus on the effect of fracture networks on the uncertainty of evaluated lifetime expectancy.

Multimethod prediction of physical parent-child aggression risk in expectant mothers and fathers with Social Information Processing theory.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M; Smith, Tamika L; Silvia, Paul J

2016-01-01

The Social Information Processing (SIP) model postulates that parents undergo a series of stages in implementing physical discipline that can escalate into physical child abuse. The current study utilized a multimethod approach to investigate whether SIP factors can predict risk of parent-child aggression (PCA) in a diverse sample of expectant mothers and fathers. SIP factors of PCA attitudes, negative child attributions, reactivity, and empathy were considered as potential predictors of PCA risk; additionally, analyses considered whether personal history of PCA predicted participants' own PCA risk through its influence on their attitudes and attributions. Findings indicate that, for both mothers and fathers, history influenced attitudes but not attributions in predicting PCA risk, and attitudes and attributions predicted PCA risk; empathy and reactivity predicted negative child attributions for expectant mothers, but only reactivity significantly predicted attributions for expectant fathers. Path models for expectant mothers and fathers were remarkably similar. Overall, the findings provide support for major aspects of the SIP model. Continued work is needed in studying the progression of these factors across time for both mothers and fathers as well as the inclusion of other relevant ecological factors to the SIP model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk prediction and aversion by anterior cingulate cortex.

PubMed

Brown, Joshua W; Braver, Todd S

2007-12-01

The recently proposed error-likelihood hypothesis suggests that anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and surrounding areas will become active in proportion to the perceived likelihood of an error. The hypothesis was originally derived from a computational model prediction. The same computational model now makes a further prediction that ACC will be sensitive not only to predicted error likelihood, but also to the predicted magnitude of the consequences, should an error occur. The product of error likelihood and predicted error consequence magnitude collectively defines the general "expected risk" of a given behavior in a manner analogous but orthogonal to subjective expected utility theory. New fMRI results from an incentivechange signal task now replicate the error-likelihood effect, validate the further predictions of the computational model, and suggest why some segments of the population may fail to show an error-likelihood effect. In particular, error-likelihood effects and expected risk effects in general indicate greater sensitivity to earlier predictors of errors and are seen in risk-averse but not risk-tolerant individuals. Taken together, the results are consistent with an expected risk model of ACC and suggest that ACC may generally contribute to cognitive control by recruiting brain activity to avoid risk.

Pressurizing the STEM Pipeline: an Expectancy-Value Theory Analysis of Youths' STEM Attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, Christopher; Huang, Kuo-Ting; Cotten, Shelia R.; Rikard, R. V.

2017-08-01

Over the past decade, there has been a strong national push to increase minority students' positive attitudes towards STEM-related careers. However, despite this focus, minority students have remained underrepresented in these fields. Some researchers have directed their attention towards improving the STEM pipeline which carries students through our educational system and into STEM careers. Previous research has shown that expectancy-value theory (EVT) is useful for examining the short-term as well as long-term academic motivations and intentions of elementary age minority students. These findings provide insights into ways we may be able to potentially "patch" particular STEM pipeline leaks. In the current study, we advance this research by using EVT as a framework to examine the STEM attitudes of young students directly. We hypothesize that students' academic-related expectancies for success and subjective task values will be associated with an increase in STEM attitudes. Data for this study was gathered over the course of a large-scale computing intervention which sought to increase students' STEM interest. This computing intervention took place in an urban elementary school district located within the southeastern USA. Results from this study indicate that both intrinsic values and utility values predict students' STEM attitudes but they influence attitudes related to the various dimensions of STEM differently. These findings demonstrate that EVT provides a useful framework, which can be integrated into future computing interventions, to help encourage positive STEM attitudes in young children, thus increasing the internal pressure (or flow) within the STEM pipeline.

Estimating the relative utility of screening mammography.

PubMed

Abbey, Craig K; Eckstein, Miguel P; Boone, John M

2013-05-01

The concept of diagnostic utility is a fundamental component of signal detection theory, going back to some of its earliest works. Attaching utility values to the various possible outcomes of a diagnostic test should, in principle, lead to meaningful approaches to evaluating and comparing such systems. However, in many areas of medical imaging, utility is not used because it is presumed to be unknown. In this work, we estimate relative utility (the utility benefit of a detection relative to that of a correct rejection) for screening mammography using its known relation to the slope of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at the optimal operating point. The approach assumes that the clinical operating point is optimal for the goal of maximizing expected utility and therefore the slope at this point implies a value of relative utility for the diagnostic task, for known disease prevalence. We examine utility estimation in the context of screening mammography using the Digital Mammographic Imaging Screening Trials (DMIST) data. We show how various conditions can influence the estimated relative utility, including characteristics of the rating scale, verification time, probability model, and scope of the ROC curve fit. Relative utility estimates range from 66 to 227. We argue for one particular set of conditions that results in a relative utility estimate of 162 (±14%). This is broadly consistent with values in screening mammography determined previously by other means. At the disease prevalence found in the DMIST study (0.59% at 365-day verification), optimal ROC slopes are near unity, suggesting that utility-based assessments of screening mammography will be similar to those found using Youden's index.

An integrated theoretical approach to substance use and risky sexual behavior among men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Wells, Brooke E; Golub, Sarit A; Parsons, Jeffrey T

2011-04-01

Research demonstrates a consistent association between substance use and sexual risk, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). The present study builds upon two existing theories (Cognitive Escape Theory and Expectancy Theory) to examine the synergistic role of sexual conflict (surrounding unsafe sex) and expectancies in sexual behavior among 135 MSM. Two conflicts were examined: (1) The conflict between motivation to practice safer sex and temptation for unprotected sex; and (2) The conflict between motivation to practice safer sex and perceived benefits of unprotected sex. Factorial ANOVAs (2 × 2; high versus low expectancies and conflict versus no conflict) revealed a significant interaction between conflict and expectancies-individuals who reported high levels of conflict were more sensitive to the effect of expectancies than were those experiencing low levels of sexual conflict. Results demonstrate the synergistic effects of conflict and expectancies and highlight the importance of integrating existing theories to more fully consider the intrapsychic operation and experience of sexual conflicts.

The syntactic complexity of Russian relative clauses

PubMed Central

Fedorenko, Evelina; Gibson, Edward

2012-01-01

Although syntactic complexity has been investigated across dozens of studies, the available data still greatly underdetermine relevant theories of processing difficulty. Memory-based and expectation-based theories make opposite predictions regarding fine-grained time course of processing difficulty in syntactically constrained contexts, and each class of theory receives support from results on some constructions in some languages. Here we report four self-paced reading experiments on the online comprehension of Russian relative clauses together with related corpus studies, taking advantage of Russian’s flexible word order to disentangle predictions of competing theories. We find support for key predictions of memory-based theories in reading times at RC verbs, and for key predictions of expectation-based theories in processing difficulty at RC-initial accusative noun phrase (NP) objects, which corpus data suggest should be highly unexpected. These results suggest that a complete theory of syntactic complexity must integrate insights from both expectation-based and memory-based theories. PMID:24711687

Personal contextual characteristics and cognitions: predicting child abuse potential and disciplinary style.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M

2010-02-01

According to Social Information Processing theory, parents' cognitive processes influence their decisions to engage in physical maltreatment, although cognitions occur in the context of other aspects of the parents' life. The present study investigated whether cognitive processes (external locus of control, inappropriate developmental expectations) predicted child abuse potential and overreactive disciplinary style beyond personal contextual factors characteristic of the parent (hostility, stress, and coping). 363 parents were recruited online. Results highlight the relative importance of the contextual characteristics (particularly stress, avoidant coping, and irritability) relative to cognitive processes in predicting abuse potential and overreactive discipline strategies, although an external locus of control also significantly contributed. Findings do not support that parents' developmental expectations uniquely predict elevated abuse risk. Results indicate stressed parents who utilize avoidance coping strategies are more likely to use overreactive discipline and report increased abuse potential. Findings are discussed with regard to implications for prevention/intervention efforts.

An expectancy-value analysis of viewer interest in television prevention news stories.

PubMed

Cooper, C P; Burgoon, M; Roter, D L

2001-01-01

Understanding what drives viewer interest in television news stories about prevention topics is vital to maximizing the effectiveness of interventions that utilize this medium. Guided by expectancy-value theory, this experiment used regression analysis to identify the salient beliefs associated with viewer attitudes towards these types of news stories. The 458 study participants were recruited over 30 days from a municipal jury pool in an eastern U.S. city. Out of the 22 beliefs included in the experiment, 6 demonstrated salience. Personal relevance, novelty, shock value, and the absence of exaggeration were the core values reflected in the identified salient beliefs. This study highlights the importance of explaining the relevance of prevention stories to viewers and framing these stories with a new spin or a surprising twist. However, such manipulations should be applied with savvy and restraint, as hyping prevention news was found to be counterproductive to educating the public.

The Cost of Uncertain Life Span*

PubMed Central

Edwards, Ryan D.

2012-01-01

A considerable amount of uncertainty surrounds the length of human life. The standard deviation in adult life span is about 15 years in the U.S., and theory and evidence suggest it is costly. I calibrate a utility-theoretic model of preferences over length of life and show that one fewer year in standard deviation is worth about half a mean life year. Differences in the standard deviation exacerbate cross-sectional differences in life expectancy between the U.S. and other industrialized countries, between rich and poor countries, and among poor countries. Accounting for the cost of life-span variance also appears to amplify recently discovered patterns of convergence in world average human well-being. This is partly for methodological reasons and partly because unconditional variance in human length of life, primarily the component due to infant mortality, has exhibited even more convergence than life expectancy. PMID:22368324

The Casual Influence of Control Beliefs on Expectations at Work

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

Olan-Gottlieb, & Heneman, 1979; Wanous, Keon, & Latack , 1983). No single theory or theorist is associated with expectancy theory. Mitchell (1974) stated...Many of the studies reviewed by Campbell and Pritchard (1976) and others have used between-subjects designs. Wanous, Keon, and Latack (1983) reviewed 16...of Levenson’s factor structure. Journal of Personality Assessment, 43, 532-535. Wanous, J. P., Keon, T. L., & Latack , J. C. (1983). Expectancy theory

Is Transformational Leadership Effective in a System Program Office

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

centers around the situational theory of lec;Iership, which suggests that the most effective style of leadership depends on the individual situation the...exception. Contingent reward is based on the principles of the path-goal model of leadership , which, in turn, is based on the expectancy theory of...transactional leadership . According to the expectancy theory of motivation, an expectancy is a belief in the liklihood that a certain action or behavior will

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Effect of experience, expectation and resource availability on perceptions of crowding among trout anglers in Pennsylvania

Treesearch

Craig A. Miller

1995-01-01

Crowding research has suggested expectancy theory as one explanation to perceptions of crowding expressed by participants in outdoor recreation activities. Expectancy theory states that an individual enters into an activity with a preconceived set of expectations for the outcome of the experience. In this study, anglers fishing on the opening day of Pennsylvania's...

Understanding Students' Motivation in Sport and Physical Education: From the Expectancy-Value Model and Self-Efficacy Theory Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Lee, Amelia M.; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

2008-01-01

In this article, the roles of individuals' expectancy beliefs and incentives (i.e., task value, outcome expectancy) in sport and physical education are examined from expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory perspectives. Overviews of the two theoretical frameworks and the conceptual and measurement issues are provided, followed by a review…

Who took the "x" out of expectancy-value theory? A psychological mystery, a substantive-methodological synergy, and a cross-national generalization.

PubMed

Nagengast, Benjamin; Marsh, Herbert W; Scalas, L Francesca; Xu, Man K; Hau, Kit-Tai; Trautwein, Ulrich

2011-08-01

Expectancy-value theory (EVT) is a dominant theory of human motivation. Historically, the Expectancy × Value interaction, in which motivation is high only if both expectancy and value are high, was central to EVT. However, the Expectancy × Value interaction mysteriously disappeared from published research more than 25 years ago. Using large representative samples of 15-year-olds (N = 398,750) from 57 diverse countries, we attempted to solve this mystery by testing Expectancy × Value interactions using latent-variable models with interactions. Expectancy (science self-concept), value (enjoyment of science), and the Expectancy × Value interaction all had statistically significant positive effects on both engagement in science activities and intentions of pursuing scientific careers; these results were similar for the total sample and for nearly all of the 57 countries considered separately. This study, apparently the strongest cross-national test of EVT ever undertaken, supports the generalizability of EVT predictions--including the "lost" Expectancy × Value interaction.

Transitional Care for Older Adults with Chronic Illnesses as a Vulnerable Population: Theoretical Framework and Future Directions in Nursing.

PubMed

Son, Youn Jung; You, Mi Ae

2015-12-01

Effective transitional care is needed to improve the quality of life in older adult patients with chronic illness and avoid discontinuity of care and adverse events. The aim of this article is to provide an overview of the key features, broader implications, and the utility of Meleis' transition theory intended for the transitional care of older adults with chronic illnesses. We present the role of nurse in the context of transitional care and propose future directions to increase the quality of nursing care. The online databases Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, MEDLINE, and Science Direct were searched for relevant literature published since 1970 along with textbooks regarding nursing theory. An evaluation of the usefulness of transition theory based on transitional care in older adult patients with chronic illnesses is provided. Healthy transition should be the expected standard of nursing care for older adults across all healthcare settings. Nurses need to contribute to the development of transitional care for vulnerable populations; however, transition theory needs to be enhanced through additional theoretical work and repeated evaluations of the applicability in areas of transitional care.

Multiobjective optimization in structural design with uncertain parameters and stochastic processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, S. S.

1984-01-01

The application of multiobjective optimization techniques to structural design problems involving uncertain parameters and random processes is studied. The design of a cantilever beam with a tip mass subjected to a stochastic base excitation is considered for illustration. Several of the problem parameters are assumed to be random variables and the structural mass, fatigue damage, and negative of natural frequency of vibration are considered for minimization. The solution of this three-criteria design problem is found by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It is observed that the game theory approach is superior in finding a better optimum solution, assuming the proper balance of the various objective functions. The procedures used in the present investigation are expected to be useful in the design of general dynamic systems involving uncertain parameters, stochastic process, and multiple objectives.

Theoretical and Experimental Investigation of the Subsonic-Flow Fields Beneath Swept and Unswept Wings with Tables or Vortex-induced Velocities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alford, William J , Jr

1957-01-01

The flow-field characteristics beneath swept and unswept wings as determined by potential-flow theory are compared with the experimentally determined flow fields beneath swept and unswept wing-fuselage combinations. The potential-flow theory utilized considered both spanwise and chordwise distributions of vorticity as well as the wing-thickness effects. The perturbation velocities induced by a unit horseshoe vortex are included in tabular form. The theoretical predictions of the flow-field characteristics were qualitatively correct in all cases considered, although there were indications that the magnitudes of the downwash angles tended to be overpredicted as the tip of the swept wing was approached and that the sidewash angles ahead of the unswept wing were underpredicted. The calculated effects of compressibility indicated that significant increases in the chordwise variation of flow angles and dynamic-pressure ratios should be expected in going from low to high subsonic speeds.

Health decision making: lynchpin of evidence-based practice.

PubMed

Spring, Bonnie

2008-01-01

Health decision making is both the lynchpin and the least developed aspect of evidence-based practice. The evidence-based practice process requires integrating the evidence with consideration of practical resources and patient preferences and doing so via a process that is genuinely collaborative. Yet, the literature is largely silent about how to accomplish integrative, shared decision making. for evidence-based practice are discussed for 2 theories of clinician decision making (expected utility and fuzzy trace) and 2 theories of patient health decision making (transtheoretical model and reasoned action). Three suggestions are offered. First, it would be advantageous to have theory-based algorithms that weight and integrate the 3 data strands (evidence, resources, preferences) in different decisional contexts. Second, patients, not providers, make the decisions of greatest impact on public health, and those decisions are behavioral. Consequently, theory explicating how provider-patient collaboration can influence patient lifestyle decisions made miles from the provider's office is greatly needed. Third, although the preponderance of data on complex decisions supports a computational approach, such an approach to evidence-based practice is too impractical to be widely applied at present. More troublesomely, until patients come to trust decisions made computationally more than they trust their providers' intuitions, patient adherence will remain problematic. A good theory of integrative, collaborative health decision making remains needed.

Health Decision Making: Lynchpin of Evidence-Based Practice

PubMed Central

Spring, Bonnie

2008-01-01

Health decision making is both the lynchpin and the least developed aspect of evidence-based practice. The evidence-based practice process requires integrating the evidence with consideration of practical resources and patient preferences and doing so via a process that is genuinely collaborative. Yet, the literature is largely silent about how to accomplish integrative, shared decision making. Implications for evidence-based practice are discussed for 2 theories of clinician decision making (expected utility and fuzzy trace) and 2 theories of patient health decision making (transtheoretical model and reasoned action). Three suggestions are offered. First, it would be advantageous to have theory-based algorithms that weight and integrate the 3 data strands (evidence, resources, preferences) in different decisional contexts. Second, patients, not providers, make the decisions of greatest impact on public health, and those decisions are behavioral. Consequently, theory explicating how provider-patient collaboration can influence patient lifestyle decisions made miles from the provider's office is greatly needed. Third, although the preponderance of data on complex decisions supports a computational approach, such an approach to evidence-based practice is too impractical to be widely applied at present. More troublesomely, until patients come to trust decisions made computationally more than they trust their providers’ intuitions, patient adherence will remain problematic. A good theory of integrative, collaborative health decision making remains needed. PMID:19015288

A theory of utility conditionals: Paralogical reasoning from decision-theoretic leakage.

PubMed

Bonnefon, Jean-François

2009-10-01

Many "if p, then q" conditionals have decision-theoretic features, such as antecedents or consequents that relate to the utility functions of various agents. These decision-theoretic features leak into reasoning processes, resulting in various paralogical conclusions. The theory of utility conditionals offers a unified account of the various forms that this phenomenon can take. The theory is built on 2 main components: (1) a representational tool (the utility grid), which summarizes in compact form the decision-theoretic features of a conditional, and (2) a set of folk axioms of decision, which reflect reasoners' beliefs about the way most agents make their decisions. Applying the folk axioms to the utility grid of a conditional allows for the systematic prediction of the paralogical conclusions invited by the utility grid's decision-theoretic features. The theory of utility conditionals significantly extends the scope of current theories of conditional inference and moves reasoning research toward a greater integration with decision-making research.

Lead field theory provides a powerful tool for designing microelectrode array impedance measurements for biological cell detection and observation.

PubMed

Böttrich, Marcel; Tanskanen, Jarno M A; Hyttinen, Jari A K

2017-06-26

Our aim is to introduce a method to enhance the design process of microelectrode array (MEA) based electric bioimpedance measurement systems for improved detection and viability assessment of living cells and tissues. We propose the application of electromagnetic lead field theory and reciprocity for MEA design and measurement result interpretation. Further, we simulated impedance spectroscopy (IS) with two- and four-electrode setups and a biological cell to illustrate the tool in the assessment of the capabilities of given MEA electrode constellations for detecting cells on or in the vicinity of the microelectrodes. The results show the power of the lead field theory in electromagnetic simulations of cell-microelectrode systems depicting the fundamental differences of two- and four-electrode IS measurement configurations to detect cells. Accordingly, the use in MEA system design is demonstrated by assessing the differences between the two- and four-electrode IS configurations. Further, our results show how cells affect the lead fields in these MEA system, and how we can utilize the differences of the two- and four-electrode setups in cell detection. The COMSOL simulator model is provided freely in public domain as open source. Lead field theory can be successfully applied in MEA design for the IS based assessment of biological cells providing the necessary visualization and insight for MEA design. The proposed method is expected to enhance the design and usability of automated cell and tissue manipulation systems required for bioreactors, which are intended for the automated production of cell and tissue grafts for medical purposes. MEA systems are also intended for toxicology to assess the effects of chemicals on living cells. Our results demonstrate that lead field concept is expected to enhance also the development of such methods and devices.

Predicting Physical Activity and Healthy Nutrition Behaviors Using Social Cognitive Theory: Cross-Sectional Survey among Undergraduate Students in Chongqing, China.

PubMed

Xu, Xianglong; Pu, Yang; Sharma, Manoj; Rao, Yunshuang; Cai, Yilin; Zhao, Yong

2017-11-05

(1) Background: Generally suggested public health measures to reduce obesity were to limit television (TV) viewing, enhance daily physical activities, enable the consumption of fruit and vegetables, and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage intake. This study analyzed the extent to which selected social cognitive theory constructs can predict these behaviors among Chinese undergraduate students. (2) Methods: This cross-sectional study included 1976 undergraduate students from six universities in Chongqing, China. A self-administered five-point Likert common physical activity and nutrition behavior scale based on social cognitive theory was utilized. (3) Results: This study included 687 (34.77%) males and 1289 (65.23%) females. A total of 60.14% of the students engaged in exercise for less than 30 min per day. Approximately 16.5%of the participants spent at least 4 h watching TV and sitting in front of a computer daily. Approximately 79% of the participants consumed less than five cups of fruit and vegetables daily. Undergraduate students who had high self-efficacy scores had more leisure time physical activities. Those who have high expectation scores had considerable time watching TV and sitting in front of a computer. Undergraduate students who had high expectation and self-efficacy scores had substantially low consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Those who had high self-efficacy scores consumed considerable amounts of fruit and vegetables. Furthermore, the type of university, BMI group, gender, age, lack of siblings, and grade level were associated with the aforementioned four behaviors. (4) Conclusion: Physical inactivity and unhealthy nutrition behaviors are common among undergraduate students. This study used social cognitive theory to provide several implications for limiting the TV viewing, enhancing daily physical activities, consuming fruit and vegetables, and reducing sugar-sweetened beverage intake among undergraduate students.

Predicting Physical Activity and Healthy Nutrition Behaviors Using Social Cognitive Theory: Cross-Sectional Survey among Undergraduate Students in Chongqing, China

PubMed Central

Pu, Yang; Sharma, Manoj; Rao, Yunshuang; Cai, Yilin; Zhao, Yong

2017-01-01

(1) Background: Generally suggested public health measures to reduce obesity were to limit television (TV) viewing, enhance daily physical activities, enable the consumption of fruit and vegetables, and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage intake. This study analyzed the extent to which selected social cognitive theory constructs can predict these behaviors among Chinese undergraduate students. (2) Methods: This cross-sectional study included 1976 undergraduate students from six universities in Chongqing, China. A self-administered five-point Likert common physical activity and nutrition behavior scale based on social cognitive theory was utilized. (3) Results: This study included 687 (34.77%) males and 1289 (65.23%) females. A total of 60.14% of the students engaged in exercise for less than 30 min per day. Approximately 16.5% of the participants spent at least 4 h watching TV and sitting in front of a computer daily. Approximately 79% of the participants consumed less than five cups of fruit and vegetables daily. Undergraduate students who had high self-efficacy scores had more leisure time physical activities. Those who have high expectation scores had considerable time watching TV and sitting in front of a computer. Undergraduate students who had high expectation and self-efficacy scores had substantially low consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Those who had high self-efficacy scores consumed considerable amounts of fruit and vegetables. Furthermore, the type of university, BMI group, gender, age, lack of siblings, and grade level were associated with the aforementioned four behaviors. (4) Conclusion: Physical inactivity and unhealthy nutrition behaviors are common among undergraduate students. This study used social cognitive theory to provide several implications for limiting the TV viewing, enhancing daily physical activities, consuming fruit and vegetables, and reducing sugar-sweetened beverage intake among undergraduate students. PMID:29113089

Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept.

PubMed

Cooper, Katelyn M; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E

2017-01-01

There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning.

Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept

PubMed Central

Cooper, Katelyn M.; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E.

2017-01-01

There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning. PMID:28861130

Using Expectancy Theory to quantitatively dissociate the neural representation of motivation from its influential factors in the human brain: An fMRI study.

PubMed

Kohli, Akshay; Blitzer, David N; Lefco, Ray W; Barter, Joseph W; Haynes, M Ryan; Colalillo, Sam A; Ly, Martina; Zink, Caroline F

2018-05-08

Researchers have yet to apply a formal operationalized theory of motivation to neurobiology that would more accurately and precisely define neural activity underlying motivation. We overcome this challenge with the novel application of the Expectancy Theory of Motivation to human fMRI to identify brain activity that explicitly reflects motivation. Expectancy Theory quantitatively describes how individual constructs determine motivation by defining motivation force as the product of three variables: expectancy - belief that effort will better performance; instrumentality - belief that successful performance leads to particular outcome, and valence - outcome desirability. Here, we manipulated information conveyed by reward-predicting cues such that relative cue-evoked activity patterns could be statistically mapped to individual Expectancy Theory variables. The variable associated with activity in any voxel is only reported if it replicated between two groups of healthy participants. We found signals in midbrain, ventral striatum, sensorimotor cortex, and visual cortex that specifically map to motivation itself, rather than other factors. This is important because, for the first time, it empirically clarifies approach motivation neural signals during reward anticipation. It also highlights the effectiveness of the application of Expectancy Theory to neurobiology to more precisely and accurately probe motivation neural correlates than has been achievable previously. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping Expectancy Violations: Self-Reflection and Planning for Better Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gregory, Lynn Dee

2013-01-01

Communication expectancies are an important part of intercultural understanding, and are defined as cultural guidelines for anticipating behavior (Burgoon, 1995). Burgoon's 1978 expectancy violations theory (EVT) explored nonverbal violations and their outcomes (Burgoon, 1995). The theory has been identified as one approach to the study of…

Cognitive Dissonance or Revenge? Student Grades and Course Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maurer, Trent W.

2006-01-01

I tested 2 competing theories to explain the connection between students' expected grades and ratings of instructors: cognitive dissonance and revenge. Cognitive dissonance theory holds that students who expect poor grades rate instructors poorly to minimize ego threat whereas the revenge theory holds that students rate instructors poorly in an…

Neural correlates of economic game playing.

PubMed

Krueger, Frank; Grafman, Jordan; McCabe, Kevin

2008-12-12

The theory of games provides a mathematical formalization of strategic choices, which have been studied in both economics and neuroscience, and more recently has become the focus of neuroeconomics experiments with human and non-human actors. This paper reviews the results from a number of game experiments that establish a unitary system for forming subjective expected utility maps in the brain, and acting on these maps to produce choices. Social situations require the brain to build an understanding of the other person using neuronal mechanisms that share affective and intentional mental states. These systems allow subjects to better predict other players' choices, and allow them to modify their subjective utility maps to value pro-social strategies. New results for a trust game are presented, which show that the trust relationship includes systems common to both trusting and trustworthy behaviour, but they also show that the relative temporal positions of first and second players require computations unique to that role.

Toward a model for assessing level of personality functioning in DSM-5, part I: a review of theory and methods.

PubMed

Bender, Donna S; Morey, Leslie C; Skodol, Andrew E

2011-07-01

Personality disorders are associated with fundamental disturbances of self and interpersonal relations, problems that vary in severity within and across disorders. This review surveyed clinician-rated measures of personality psychopathology that focus on self-other dimensions to explore the feasibility and utility of constructing a scale of severity of impairment in personality functioning for DSM-5. Robust elements of the instruments were considered in creating a continuum of personality functioning based on aspects of identity, self-direction, empathy, and intimacy. Building on preliminary findings (Morey et al., 2011 /this issue), the proposed Levels of Personality Functioning will be subjected to extensive empirical testing in the DSM-5 field trials and elsewhere. The resulting version of this severity measure is expected to have clinical utility in identifying personality psychopathology, planning treatment, building the therapeutic alliance, and studying treatment course and outcome.

Teach It, Don’t Preach It: The Differential Effects of Directly-communicated and Self-generated Utility Value Information

PubMed Central

Canning, Elizabeth A.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.

2015-01-01

Social-psychological interventions in education have used a variety of “self-persuasion” or “saying-is-believing” techniques to encourage students to articulate key intervention messages. These techniques are used in combination with more overt strategies, such as the direct communication of messages in order to promote attitude change. However, these different strategies have rarely been systematically compared, particularly in controlled laboratory settings. We focus on one intervention based in expectancy-value theory designed to promote perceptions of utility value in the classroom and test different intervention techniques to promote interest and performance. Across three laboratory studies, we used a mental math learning paradigm in which we varied whether students wrote about utility value for themselves or received different forms of directly-communicated information about the utility value of a novel mental math technique. In Study 1, we examined the difference between directly-communicated and self-generated utility-value information and found that directly-communicated utility-value information undermined performance and interest for individuals who lacked confidence, but that self-generated utility had positive effects. However, Study 2 suggests that these negative effects of directly-communicated utility value can be ameliorated when participants are also given the chance to generate their own examples of utility value, revealing a synergistic effect of directly-communicated and self-generated utility value. In Study 3, we found that individuals who lacked confidence benefited more when everyday examples of utility value were communicated, rather than career and school examples. PMID:26495326

The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap.

PubMed

Elwyn, Glyn; Stiel, Mareike; Durand, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Jacky

2011-08-01

Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a range of selected decision-making theories could inform the design and evaluation of decision support interventions. We reviewed the decision-making literature and selected relevant theories. We assessed their key principles, theoretical pathways and predictions in order to determine how they could inform the design of two core components of decision support interventions, namely, information and deliberation components and to specify theory-based outcome measures. Eight theories were selected: (1) the expected utility theory; (2) the conflict model of decision making; (3) prospect theory; (4) fuzzy-trace theory; (5) the differentiation and consolidation theory; (6) the ecological rationality theory; (7) the rational-emotional model of decision avoidance; and finally, (8) the Attend, React, Explain, Adapt model of affective forecasting. Some theories have strong relevance to the information design (e.g. prospect theory); some are more relevant to deliberation processes (conflict theory, differentiation theory and ecological validity). None of the theories in isolation was sufficient to inform the design of all the necessary components of decision support interventions. It was also clear that most work in theory-building has focused on explaining or describing how humans think rather than on how tools could be designed to help humans make good decisions. It is not surprising therefore that a large theory-practice gap exists as we consider decision support for patients. There was no relevant theory that integrated all the necessary contributions to the task of making good decisions in collaborative interactions. Initiatives such as the International Patient Decision Aids Standards Collaboration influence standards for the design of decision support interventions. However, this analysis points to the need to undertake more work in providing theoretical foundations for these interventions. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Incorporating coping into an expectancy framework for explaining drinking behaviour.

PubMed

Hasking, Penelope A; Oei, Tian P S

2008-01-01

Expectancy Theory has offered much in the way of understanding alcohol use and abuse, and has contributed greatly to prevention and treatment initiatives. However although many cognitive-behavioural treatment approaches are based on expectancy constructs, such as outcome expectancies and self-efficacy, high relapse rates imply that expectancy theory may be too narrow in scope, and that additional variables need to be examined if a comprehensive understanding of drinking behaviour, and better treatment outcomes, are to be achieved. We suggest that the coping strategies an individual employs present one such set of variables that have largely been neglected from an expectancy framework. Although coping skills training is routinely used in prevention and treatment of alcohol problems, coping research has suffered from a poor theoretical framework. In this paper we review the existing research relating expectancies, self-efficacy and coping to drinking behaviour and propose a model which explains both social and dependent drinking, by incorporating coping into an expectancy theory framework. We also outline research and clinical implications of the proposed model.

Development and evaluation of social cognitive measures related to adolescent physical activity.

PubMed

Dewar, Deborah L; Lubans, David Revalds; Morgan, Philip James; Plotnikoff, Ronald C

2013-05-01

This study aimed to develop and evaluate the construct validity and reliability of modernized social cognitive measures relating to physical activity behaviors in adolescents. An instrument was developed based on constructs from Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory and included the following scales: self-efficacy, situation (perceived physical environment), social support, behavioral strategies, and outcome expectations and expectancies. The questionnaire was administered in a sample of 171 adolescents (age = 13.6 ± 1.2 years, females = 61%). Confirmatory factor analysis was employed to examine model-fit for each scale using multiple indices, including chi-square index, comparative-fit index (CFI), goodness-of-fit index (GFI), and the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA). Reliability properties were also examined (ICC and Cronbach's alpha). Each scale represented a statistically sound measure: fit indices indicated each model to be an adequate-to-exact fit to the data; internal consistency was acceptable to good (α = 0.63-0.79); rank order repeatability was strong (ICC = 0.82-0.91). Results support the validity and reliability of social cognitive scales relating to physical activity among adolescents. As such, the developed scales have utility for the identification of potential social cognitive correlates of youth physical activity, mediators of physical activity behavior changes and the testing of theoretical models based on Social Cognitive Theory.

Nature and operation of attitudes.

PubMed

Ajzen, I

2001-01-01

This survey of attitude theory and research published between 1996 and 1999 covers the conceptualization of attitude, attitude formation and activation, attitude structure and function, and the attitude-behavior relation. Research regarding the expectancy-value model of attitude is considered, as are the roles of accessible beliefs and affective versus cognitive processes in the formation of attitudes. The survey reviews research on attitude strength and its antecedents and consequences, and covers progress made on the assessment of attitudinal ambivalence and its effects. Also considered is research on automatic attitude activation, attitude functions, and the relation of attitudes to broader values. A large number of studies dealt with the relation between attitudes and behavior. Research revealing additional moderators of this relation is reviewed, as are theory and research on the link between intentions and actions. Most work in this context was devoted to issues raised by the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior. The present review highlights the nature of perceived behavioral control, the relative importance of attitudes and subjective norms, the utility of adding more predictors, and the roles of prior behavior and habit.

Procurement Integrity in Contingency Operations: A Case Study of Army Contracting Officer Corruption in Operations Iraqi and Enduring Freedom Utilizing Occupational Fraud Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

Study of Army Contracting Officer Corruption in Operations Iraqi and Enduring Freedom Utilizing Occupational Fraud Theory By: Amanda H...Operations Iraqi and Enduring Freedom Utilizing Occupational Fraud Theory 6. AUTHOR(S) Amanda H. Flint 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...CCOs) during Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom (OIF/OEF) by applying occupational fraud theory, specifically the classic sociological

Surface electrons in inverted layers of p-HgCdTe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schacham, Samuel E.; Finkman, Eliezer

1990-01-01

Anodic oxide passivation of p-type HgCdTe generates an inversion layer. Extremely high Hall mobility data for electrons in this layer indicated the presence of a two-dimensional electron gas. This is verified by use of the Shubnikov-de Haas effect from 1.45 to 4.15 K. Data are extracted utilizing a numerical second derivative of dc measurement. Three sub-bands are detected. Their relative occupancies are in excellent agreement with theory and with experimental results obtained on anodic oxide as accumulation layers of n-type HgCdTe. The effective mass derived is comparable to what was expected.

Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.

PubMed

Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K

2000-08-01

Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful.

Predictive monitoring research: Summary of the PREMON system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyle, Richard J.; Sellers, Suzanne M.; Atkinson, David J.

1987-01-01

Traditional approaches to monitoring are proving inadequate in the face of two important issues: the dynamic adjustment of expectations about sensor values when the behavior of the device is too complex to enumerate beforehand, and the selective but effective interpretation of sensor readings when the number of sensors becomes overwhelming. This system addresses these issues by building an explicit model of a device and applying common-sense theories of physics to model causality in the device. The resulting causal simulation of the device supports planning decisions about how to efficiently yet reliably utilize a limited number of sensors to verify correct operation of the device.

Are Alcohol Expectancies Associations? Comment on Moss and Albery (2009)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiers, Reinout W.; Stacy, Alan W.

2010-01-01

Moss and Albery (2009) presented a dual-process model of the alcohol-behavior link, integrating alcohol expectancy and alcohol myopia theory. Their integrative theory rests on a number of assumptions including, first, that alcohol expectancies are associations that can be activated automatically by an alcohol-relevant context, and second, that…

The Prediction of College Student Academic Performance and Retention: Application of Expectancy and Goal Setting Theories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Barry A.; Mandel, Rhonda G.

2010-01-01

Student retention and performance in higher education are important issues for educators, students, and the nation facing critical professional labor shortages. Expectancy and goal setting theories were used to predict academic performance and college student retention. Students' academic expectancy motivation at the start of the college…

An Australian discrete choice experiment to value eq-5d health states.

PubMed

Viney, Rosalie; Norman, Richard; Brazier, John; Cronin, Paula; King, Madeleine T; Ratcliffe, Julie; Street, Deborah

2014-06-01

Conventionally, generic quality-of-life health states, defined within multi-attribute utility instruments, have been valued using a Standard Gamble or a Time Trade-Off. Both are grounded in expected utility theory but impose strong assumptions about the form of the utility function. Preference elicitation tasks for both are complicated, limiting the number of health states that each respondent can value and, therefore, that can be valued overall. The usual approach has been to value a set of the possible health states and impute values for the remainder. Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) offer an attractive alternative, allowing investigation of more flexible specifications of the utility function and greater coverage of the response surface. We designed a DCE to obtain values for EQ-5D health states and implemented it in an Australia-representative online panel (n = 1,031). A range of specifications investigating non-linear preferences with respect to time and interactions between EQ-5D levels were estimated using a random-effects probit model. The results provide empirical support for a flexible utility function, including at least some two-factor interactions. We then constructed a preference index such that full health and death were valued at 1 and 0, respectively, to provide a DCE-based algorithm for Australian cost-utility analyses. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

"Utilizing" signal detection theory.

PubMed

Lynn, Spencer K; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2014-09-01

What do inferring what a person is thinking or feeling, judging a defendant's guilt, and navigating a dimly lit room have in common? They involve perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling face might indicate anger or concentration, for which different responses are appropriate) and behavioral risk (e.g., a cost to making the wrong response). Signal detection theory describes these types of decisions. In this tutorial, we show how incorporating the economic concept of utility allows signal detection theory to serve as a model of optimal decision making, going beyond its common use as an analytic method. This utility approach to signal detection theory clarifies otherwise enigmatic influences of perceptual uncertainty on measures of decision-making performance (accuracy and optimality) and on behavior (an inverse relationship between bias magnitude and sensitivity optimizes utility). A "utilized" signal detection theory offers the possibility of expanding the phenomena that can be understood within a decision-making framework. © The Author(s) 2014.

An Experimental Test of the Expectancy-Disconfirmation Theory of Citizen Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Ryzin, Gregg G.

2013-01-01

A number of prior studies have found evidence for the expectancy-disconfirmation theory of citizen satisfaction with public services, which holds that citizens judge public services not only on experienced service quality but also on an implicit comparison of service quality with prior expectations. But the evidence to date has been based on…

The Long-Term Effects of Early Parent Involvement and Parent Expectation in the USA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froiland, John Mark; Peterson, Aubrey; Davison, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Building on social-cognitive theory and the expectancy-value theory, this study indicated that early parent expectations for children’s post-secondary educational attainment have a stronger effect on 8th-grade achievement than home-based parental involvement. With a nationally representative sample of kindergarten students and their parents in the…

Transformative learning and research utilization in nursing practice: a missing link?

PubMed

Matthew-Maich, Nancy; Ploeg, Jenny; Jack, Susan; Dobbins, Maureen

2010-03-01

Poor or inconsistent research utilization into clinical practice is a recurrent theme across study contexts, rendering leaders disillusioned with how best to foster the uptake of research into nursing practice. This makes it imperative to look to new approaches. Research utilization involves a learning process engaging attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors; yet, this is often overlooked in approaches and models used to facilitate research use. This oversight may offer some explanation to the limited progress in research utilization to date. Transformation Theory offers an explanatory theory and specific strategies (critical reflection and critical discourse) to explore attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors so that they are understood, validated, and can better guide actions. The purpose of this article was to explore what Transformation Theory can contribute to research utilization initiatives in nursing practice. Transformation Theory and transformative learning strategies are discussed and critically analyzed in consideration of their potential roles in fostering research utilization in clinical nursing practice. (1) Research utilization is a learning process that involves knowledge, skills, feelings, attitudes, and beliefs. (2) Transformative learning strategies of critical reflection and discourse can facilitate insight into experiences, finding shared meanings among groups of people, and understanding/validating beliefs, attitudes, and feelings so they can more consciously guide future actions. This dimension is frequently neglected in research utilization efforts. (3) In combination with research utilization theories, Transformation Theory may be a missing link to make research utilization initiatives more effective in rendering and sustaining nursing practice change, thus enhancing client care and well-being. (4) Research and further consideration are both warranted and needed.

"Putting My Man Face on": A Grounded Theory of College Men's Gender Identity Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Keith E.; Jones, Susan R.

2009-01-01

The theory that emerged from this constructivist grounded theory study of 10 college men's experiences depicts their gender identity as developed through constant interaction with society's expectations of them as men. In order to try to meet these perceived expectations, participants described putting on a performance that was like wearing a mask…

An Exploration of School Counselors' Knowledge Sharing Practices Using Diffusion of Innovation Theory, Social Exchange Theory, and Theory of Reasoned Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shipp, Adria E.

2010-01-01

School counselors are expected to be advocates, collaborators, consultants, and leaders in their work with students, families, administrators, school staff, and community based stakeholders (ASCA, 2005; Shoffner & Briggs, 2001; Rowley, 2000). Underlying these expectations is the belief that school counselors are knowledgeable in the areas that…

Improving the Pedagogy of Capital Structure Theory: An Excel Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baltazar, Ramon; Maybee, Bryan; Santos, Michael R.

2012-01-01

This paper uses Excel to enhance the pedagogy of capital structure theory for corporate finance instructors and students. We provide a lesson plan that utilizes Excel spreadsheets and graphs to develop understanding of the theory. The theory is introduced in three scenarios that utilize Modigliani & Miller's Propositions and…

Suicidal ideation in transgender people: Gender minority stress and interpersonal theory factors.

PubMed

Testa, Rylan J; Michaels, Matthew S; Bliss, Whitney; Rogers, Megan L; Balsam, Kimberly F; Joiner, Thomas

2017-01-01

Research has revealed alarmingly high rates of suicidal ideation (SI) and suicide attempts among transgender and gender nonconforming (TGNC) people. This study aims to analyze the role of factors from the gender minority stress and resilience (GMSR) model (Testa, Habarth, Peta, Balsam, & Bockting, 2015), the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicide (IPTS; Joiner, 2005; Van Orden et al., 2010), and the potential integration of these factors, in explaining SI in this population. A convenience sample of 816 TGNC adults responded to measures of current SI, gender minority stressors, and IPTS factors. Path analysis was utilized to test 2 models. Model 1 evaluated the associations between external minority stressors and SI through internal minority stressors. Model 2 examined the relationships between internal minority stressors and SI through IPTS variables (perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness). All GMSR external stressors (rejection, nonaffirmation, victimization, and discrimination), internal stressors (internalized transphobia, negative expectations, and nondisclosure), and IPTS factors (thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness) were related to SI. Both models demonstrated good fit. Model 1 revealed that rejection, nonaffirmation, and victimization were related to SI through experiences of internalized transphobia and negative expectations. Model 2 indicated that internalized transphobia and negative expectations were associated with SI through IPTS factors. The models demonstrate pathways through which GMSR and IPTS constructs relate to one another and confer risk for SI among TGNC individuals. These pathways and several recently proposed constructs examined here provide promising directions for future research and clinical interventions in this area. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Exploring the Needs, Expectations, and Realities of Mental Healthcare for Transgender Adults: A Grounded Theory Study on Experiences in Sweden

PubMed Central

Carroll-Beight, Debra; Larsson, Markus

2018-01-01

Abstract Purpose: Transgender persons experience a disproportionate representation in adverse mental health conditions globally. In Sweden, there are tangible efforts to improve mental healthcare overall, but transgender persons still struggle with meeting their mental healthcare needs and there is an absence of understanding the role of mental healthcare for this population and how services are being utilized. Thus, the aim of this study was to gain knowledge from transgender individuals in Sweden concerning their mental healthcare, their needs, expectations, and realities, regardless of transition status. Methods: Eleven in-depth interviews were conducted with persons who identified as transgender, older than 18 years, at some stage of transition in Sweden. Data were collected, analyzed, and interpreted using constructivist ground theory. Results: Three categories emerged from the analysis, Feeling Objectification Rather than Subjectivity, Constructing the Narrative, and Reflecting on Aspects of Care that illustrate the dual tensions at play in transgender visibility, communication with mental healthcare professionals, and expectations of care. Six subcategories further delineate the specific forces at work that construct the mental healthcare experiences for trans persons. Conclusion: Increased knowledge and visibility of transgender persons are needed to adequately serve the mental healthcare needs for this population. Currently, there are barriers that inhibit transgender persons from getting the mental healthcare assistance desired and needed, as they do not view the healthcare system as safe space. As steps are being taken to depathologize transgender identities, momentum should be continued to create space for trans persons that enables unencumbered mental health assistance. PMID:29806033

Outcome expectations for exercise scale: utility and psychometrics.

PubMed

Resnick, B; Zimmerman, S I; Orwig, D; Furstenberg, A L; Magaziner, J

2000-11-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a measure of outcome expectations for exercise specifically for the older adult (The Outcome Expectations for Exercise [OEE] Scale), and to test the reliability and validity of this measure in a sample of older individuals. This scale was developed based on Bandura's theory of self-efficacy and the work of prior researchers in the development of measures of outcome expectations. The OEE scale, which was completed during a face-to-face interview, was tested in a sample of 175 residents in a continuing care retirement community. There was support for the internal consistency of the OEE scale (alpha coefficient of .89), and some support for reliability based on a structural equation modeling approach that used R2 estimates, although less than half of these were greater than 0.5. There was evidence of validity of the measure based on: (a) a confirmatory factor analysis in which the model fit the data (normed fit index [NFI] = .99, root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA] - .07, chi2/df = 2.8); (b) support for the hypothesis that those who exercised regularly had higher OEE scores than those who did not (F = 31.3, p < .05, eta squared = .15); and (c) a statistically significant relationship between outcome expectations and self-efficacy expectations (r = .66). This study provides some initial support for the reliability and validity of the OEE scale. Outcome expectations for exercise were related to exercise behavior in the older adult, and the OEE scale can help identify older adults with low outcome expectations for exercise. Interventions can then be implemented to help these individuals strengthen their outcome expectations, which may subsequently improve exercise behavior.

Theory of mind for processing unexpected events across contexts.

PubMed

Dungan, James A; Stepanovic, Michael; Young, Liane

2016-08-01

Theory of mind, or mental state reasoning, may be particularly useful for making sense of unexpected events. Here, we investigated unexpected behavior across both social and non-social contexts in order to characterize the precise role of theory of mind in processing unexpected events. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine how people respond to unexpected outcomes when initial expectations were based on (i) an object's prior behavior, (ii) an agent's prior behavior and (iii) an agent's mental states. Consistent with prior work, brain regions for theory of mind were preferentially recruited when people first formed expectations about social agents vs non-social objects. Critically, unexpected vs expected outcomes elicited greater activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, which also discriminated in its spatial pattern of activity between unexpected and expected outcomes for social events. In contrast, social vs non-social events elicited greater activity in precuneus across both expected and unexpected outcomes. Finally, given prior information about an agent's behavior, unexpected vs expected outcomes elicited an especially robust response in right temporoparietal junction, and the magnitude of this difference across participants correlated negatively with autistic-like traits. Together, these findings illuminate the distinct contributions of brain regions for theory of mind for processing unexpected events across contexts. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Using Expectancy Effects Theory To Analyze the Groups Who Supported Senator McCarthy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corder, Lloyd E.

In this essay, Festinger's cognitive dissonance theory (which seeks to explain how individuals try to reconcile holding two inconsistent beliefs at the same time) is used to explore the nature of expectancy effects and what possible roles they play in the thinking of the radical right. The paper first defines expectancy effects and explains how…

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes as a Function of Contract Type

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

contract types has been well established. The theory of contractual incentives promulgated by Sherer (1964) established expected contractor...behaviors using a max- imization problem. The theory focuses on expected contractor behaviors in incentive contracts (cf. Federal Acquisition Regulation...Scherer, F. M. (1964). The theory of contractual incentives for cost reduction. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 78, 257–280. Tawazuh Commercial and

Adaptive, Distributed Control of Constrained Multi-Agent Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bieniawski, Stefan; Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

Product Distribution (PO) theory was recently developed as a broad framework for analyzing and optimizing distributed systems. Here we demonstrate its use for adaptive distributed control of Multi-Agent Systems (MASS), i.e., for distributed stochastic optimization using MAS s. First we review one motivation of PD theory, as the information-theoretic extension of conventional full-rationality game theory to the case of bounded rational agents. In this extension the equilibrium of the game is the optimizer of a Lagrangian of the (Probability dist&&on on the joint state of the agents. When the game in question is a team game with constraints, that equilibrium optimizes the expected value of the team game utility, subject to those constraints. One common way to find that equilibrium is to have each agent run a Reinforcement Learning (E) algorithm. PD theory reveals this to be a particular type of search algorithm for minimizing the Lagrangian. Typically that algorithm i s quite inefficient. A more principled alternative is to use a variant of Newton's method to minimize the Lagrangian. Here we compare this alternative to RL-based search in three sets of computer experiments. These are the N Queen s problem and bin-packing problem from the optimization literature, and the Bar problem from the distributed RL literature. Our results confirm that the PD-theory-based approach outperforms the RL-based scheme in all three domains.

Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

PubMed

Wigfield; Eccles

2000-01-01

We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Mathematical psychology.

PubMed

Batchelder, William H

2010-09-01

Mathematical psychology is a sub-field of psychology that started in the 1950s and has continued to grow as an important contributor to formal psychological theory, especially in the cognitive areas of psychology such as learning, memory, classification, choice response time, decision making, attention, and problem solving. In addition, there are several scientific sub-areas that were originated by mathematical psychologists such as the foundations of measurement, stochastic memory models, and psychologically motivated reformulations of expected utility theory. Mathematical psychology does not include all uses of mathematics and statistics in psychology, and indeed there is a long history of such uses especially in the areas of perception and psychometrics. What is most unique about mathematical psychology is its approach to theory construction. While accepting the behaviorist dictum that the data in psychology must be observable and replicable, mathematical models are specified in terms of unobservable formal constructs that can predict detailed aspects of data across multiple experimental and natural settings. By now almost all the substantive areas of cognitive and experimental psychology have formal mathematical models and theories, and many of these are due to researchers that identify with mathematical psychology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An aggregate method to calibrate the reference point of cumulative prospect theory-based route choice model for urban transit network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yufeng; Long, Man; Luo, Sida; Bao, Yu; Shen, Hanxia

2015-12-01

Transit route choice model is the key technology of public transit systems planning and management. Traditional route choice models are mostly based on expected utility theory which has an evident shortcoming that it cannot accurately portray travelers' subjective route choice behavior for their risk preferences are not taken into consideration. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a brand new theory, can be used to describe travelers' decision-making process under the condition of uncertainty of transit supply and risk preferences of multi-type travelers. The method to calibrate the reference point, a key parameter to CPT-based transit route choice model, determines the precision of the model to a great extent. In this paper, a new method is put forward to obtain the value of reference point which combines theoretical calculation and field investigation results. Comparing the proposed method with traditional method, it shows that the new method can promote the quality of CPT-based model by improving the accuracy in simulating travelers' route choice behaviors based on transit trip investigation from Nanjing City, China. The proposed method is of great significance to logical transit planning and management, and to some extent makes up the defect that obtaining the reference point is solely based on qualitative analysis.

Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

PubMed

Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

2016-06-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Withholding information from cancer patients as a physician's decision under risk.

PubMed

Yaniv, G

2000-01-01

When cancer is diagnosed, the physician may face a dilemma regarding disclosure of information to the patient. While he or she may feel a responsibility to maintain the patient's hope, even through the withholding of information, there is a risk involved: if treatment fails, the patient will eventually know the truth. Patients who would rather live their final days in peace rather than undergo unpleasant treatment of an uncertain nature may be furious and frustrated that they have been deprived of this liberty, ending their lives feeling worse than they would have had they been told the truth at the outset. The author applies three theories of decision making under uncertainty (expected utility theory, prospect theory, and regret theory) to the physician's problem of whether and to what extent to withhold information from a cancer patient, deriving comparative predictions with regard to the relationships between the physician's behavior and illness, patient, and physician characteristics. The results help explain why physicians whose norm of behavior is full disclosure sometimes opt to withhold information and why junior physicians are more likely to disclose the truth than their senior colleagues, as well as the empirical findings that physicians tend to disclose more truthful information to patients the greater the severity of illness and the more inquisitive the patient.

Similarity or dissimilarity in the relations between human service organizations.

PubMed

Bruynooghe, Kevin; Verhaeghe, Mieke; Bracke, Piet

2008-01-01

Exchange theory and homophily theory give rise to counteracting expectations for the interaction between human service organizations. Based on arguments of exchange theory, more interaction is expected between dissimilar organizations having complementary resources. Based on arguments of homophily theory, organizations having similar characteristics are expected to interact more. Interorganizational relations between human service organizations in two regional networks in Flanders are examined in this study. Results indicate that human service organizations tend to cooperate more with similar organizations as several homophily effects but not one effect of dissimilarity were found to be significant. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of interorganizational networks of human service organizations and have implications for the development of integrated care.

Chern-Simons expectation values and quantum horizons from loop quantum gravity and the Duflo map.

PubMed

Sahlmann, Hanno; Thiemann, Thomas

2012-03-16

We report on a new approach to the calculation of Chern-Simons theory expectation values, using the mathematical underpinnings of loop quantum gravity, as well as the Duflo map, a quantization map for functions on Lie algebras. These new developments can be used in the quantum theory for certain types of black hole horizons, and they may offer new insights for loop quantum gravity, Chern-Simons theory and the theory of quantum groups.

Literary Fiction as a Tool for Teaching Social Theory and Critical Consciousness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Christina D.

2010-01-01

In this paper, I discuss the possibilities that emerge from using literary fiction as a tool for teaching social theory and critical consciousness. Focusing on data from a social theory course I taught in fall 2007, along with my experiences teaching social theory, I evaluate the utility of utilizing literary fiction in the social theory…

SELF-ACTUALIZATION AND THE UTILIZATION OF TALENT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

FRENCH, JOHN R.P.; MILLER, DANIEL R.

THIS STUDY ATTEMPTED (1) TO DEVELOP A THEORY OF THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF SELF-ACTUALIZATION AS RELATED TO THE UTILIZATION OF TALENT, (2) TO FIT THE THEORY TO EXISTING DATA, AND (3) TO PLAN ONE OR MORE RESEARCH PROJECTS TO TEST THE THEORY. TWO ARTICLES ON IDENTITY AND MOTIVATION AND SELF-ACTUALIZATION AND SELF-IDENTITY THEORY REPORTED THE…

Testing a social cognitive theory-based model of indoor tanning: implications for skin cancer prevention messages.

PubMed

Noar, Seth M; Myrick, Jessica Gall; Zeitany, Alexandra; Kelley, Dannielle; Morales-Pico, Brenda; Thomas, Nancy E

2015-01-01

The lack of a theory-based understanding of indoor tanning is a major impediment to the development of effective messages to prevent or reduce this behavior. This study applied the Comprehensive Indoor Tanning Expectations (CITE) scale in an analysis of indoor tanning behavior among sorority women (total N = 775). Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that CITE positive and negative expectations were robust, multidimensional factors and that a hierarchical structure fit the data well. Social cognitive theory-based structural equation models demonstrated that appearance-oriented variables were significantly associated with outcome expectations. Outcome expectations were, in turn, significantly associated with temptations to tan, intention to tan indoors, and indoor tanning behavior. The implications of these findings for the development of messages to prevent and reduce indoor tanning behavior are discussed in two domains: (a) messages that attempt to change broader societal perceptions about tan skin, and (b) messages that focus more narrowly on indoor tanning-challenging positive expectations, enhancing negative expectations, and encouraging substitution of sunless tanning products.

Maximal Predictability Approach for Identifying the Right Descriptors for Electrocatalytic Reactions.

PubMed

Krishnamurthy, Dilip; Sumaria, Vaidish; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian

2018-02-01

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations are being routinely used to identify new material candidates that approach activity near fundamental limits imposed by thermodynamics or scaling relations. DFT calculations are associated with inherent uncertainty, which limits the ability to delineate materials (distinguishability) that possess high activity. Development of error-estimation capabilities in DFT has enabled uncertainty propagation through activity-prediction models. In this work, we demonstrate an approach to propagating uncertainty through thermodynamic activity models leading to a probability distribution of the computed activity and thereby its expectation value. A new metric, prediction efficiency, is defined, which provides a quantitative measure of the ability to distinguish activity of materials and can be used to identify the optimal descriptor(s) ΔG opt . We demonstrate the framework for four important electrochemical reactions: hydrogen evolution, chlorine evolution, oxygen reduction and oxygen evolution. Future studies could utilize expected activity and prediction efficiency to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of highly active material candidates.

The Influence of Job Characteristics and the Family on the Propensity to Change Careers: An Expectancy Theory Approach. Research Report No. 12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Robert A.; And Others

Valence-Instrumentality-Expectancy (VIE) theory was used as a framework for exploring the dynamics of occupational preferences and satisfactions of 268 professors and 45 department chairmen at a major university and the processes underlying the intention of professors to make a mid-career change into the administrative role. The VIE theory is a…

Healing Through States of Consciousness: Animal Sacrifice and Christian Prayer Among the Kachin in Southwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenyi

2016-01-01

Healing rituals can be understood in terms of configurations of two states of consciousness-a culturally elaborated everyday waking consciousness, and an enhanced and culturally elaborated state of consciousness. Two healing rituals performed by the ethnic Kachin in Southwest China differentiate these two states of consciousness in their theories of life and death. The first ritual, animal sacrifice, employs the ordinary consciousness, including will and expectation, of participants through the enhanced state of consciousness of the ritual officiant. The second, Christian prayer, utilizes the enhanced consciousness of Christian Congregation to achieve psychic transformation. These two rituals maneuver different configurations of the two states of consciousness in achieving healing efficacy.

Volumes of critical bubbles from the nucleation theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilemski, Gerald

2006-09-01

A corollary of the nucleation theorem due to Kashchiev [Nucleation: Basic Theory with Applications (Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, 2000)] allows the volume V* of a critical bubble to be determined from nucleation rate measurements. The original derivation was limited to one-component, ideal gas bubbles with a vapor density much smaller than that of the ambient liquid. Here, an exact result is found for multicomponent, nonideal gas bubbles. Provided a weak density inequality holds, this result reduces to Kashchiev's simple form which thus has a much broader range of applicability than originally expected. Limited applications to droplets are also mentioned, and the utility of the pT,x form of the nucleation theorem as a sum rule is noted.

Neural basis of quasi-rational decision making.

PubMed

Lee, Daeyeol

2006-04-01

Standard economic theories conceive homo economicus as a rational decision maker capable of maximizing utility. In reality, however, people tend to approximate optimal decision-making strategies through a collection of heuristic routines. Some of these routines are driven by emotional processes, and others are adjusted iteratively through experience. In addition, routines specialized for social decision making, such as inference about the mental states of other decision makers, might share their origins and neural mechanisms with the ability to simulate or imagine outcomes expected from alternative actions that an individual can take. A recent surge of collaborations across economics, psychology and neuroscience has provided new insights into how such multiple elements of decision making interact in the brain.

Size doesn't really matter: ambiguity aversion in Ellsberg urns with few balls.

PubMed

Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

2008-01-01

When attempting to draw a ball of a specified color either from an urn containing 50 red balls and 50 black balls or from an urn containing an unknown ratio of 100 red and black balls, a majority of decision makers prefer the known-risk urn, and this ambiguity aversion effect violates expected utility theory. In an experimental investigation of the effect of urn size on ambiguity aversion, 149 participants showed similar levels of aversion when choosing from urns containing 2, 10, or 100 balls. The occurrence of a substantial and significant ambiguity aversion effect even in the smallest urn suggests that influential theoretical interpretations of ambiguity aversion may need to be reconsidered.

Team reasoning and collective rationality: piercing the veil of obviousness.

PubMed

Colman, Andrew M; Pulford, Briony D; Rose, Jo

2008-06-01

The experiments reported in our target article provide strong evidence of collective utility maximization, and the findings suggest that team reasoning should now be included among the social value orientations used in cognitive and social psychology. Evidential decision theory offers a possible alternative explanation for our results but fails to predict intuitively compelling strategy choices in simple games with asymmetric team-reasoning outcomes. Although many of our experimental participants evidently used team reasoning, some appear to have ignored the other players' expected strategy choices and used lower-level, nonstrategic forms of reasoning. Standard payoff transformations cannot explain the experimental findings, nor team reasoning in general, without an unrealistic assumption that players invariably reason nonstrategically.

Enhancing Placebo Effects: Insights From Social Psychology

PubMed Central

SLIWINSKI, JIM; ELKINS, GARY R.

2012-01-01

Placebo effects are widely recognized as having a potent impact upon treatment outcomes in both medical and psychological interventions, including hypnosis. In research utilizing randomized clinical trials, there is usually an effort to minimize or control placebo effects. However, in clinical practice there may be significant benefits in enhancing placebo effects. Prior research from the field of social psychology has identified three factors that may enhance placebo effects, namely: priming, client perceptions, and the theory of planned behavior. These factors are reviewed and illustrated via a case example. The consideration of social-psychological factors to enhance positive expectancies and beliefs has implications for clinical practice as well as future research into hypnotic interventions. PMID:23488251

Community centrality and social science research.

PubMed

Allman, Dan

2015-12-01

Community centrality is a growing requirement of social science. The field's research practices are increasingly expected to conform to prescribed relationships with the people studied. Expectations about community centrality influence scholarly activities. These expectations can pressure social scientists to adhere to models of community involvement that are immediate and that include community-based co-investigators, advisory boards, and liaisons. In this context, disregarding community centrality can be interpreted as failure. This paper considers evolving norms about the centrality of community in social science. It problematises community inclusion and discusses concerns about the impact of community centrality on incremental theory development, academic integrity, freedom of speech, and the value of liberal versus communitarian knowledge. Through the application of a constructivist approach, this paper argues that social science in which community is omitted or on the periphery is not failed science, because not all social science requires a community base to make a genuine and valuable contribution. The utility of community centrality is not necessarily universal across all social science pursuits. The practices of knowing within social science disciplines may be difficult to transfer to a community. These practices of knowing require degrees of specialisation and interest that not all communities may want or have.

The Significance of Sexuality and Intimacy in the Lives of Older African Americans With HIV/AIDS

PubMed Central

Nevedal, Andrea; Sankar, Andrea

2016-01-01

Purpose of the Study: Aging and HIV/AIDS research focuses primarily on standardized clinical, social, and behavioral measures, leaving unanswered questions about how this chronic and stigmatizing condition affects life course expectations and the meaning of aging with the disease. Utilizing Gaylene Becker’s (1997) life course disruption theory, we explored older African Americans’ experiences of living with HIV/AIDS. Design and Methods: A purposive sample (N = 43) of seropositive African Americans aged 50 and older was selected from a parent study. Thirteen participants completed one semi-structured in-depth interview on life course expectations and experiences of living with HIV/AIDS. Interview transcripts were analyzed using standard qualitative coding and thematic analysis. Results: Responding to broad, open-ended questions about the impact of HIV on life course expectations, participants emphasized how HIV limited their ability to experience sexuality and intimacy. Two major themes emerged, damaged sexuality and constrained intimacy. Implications: Older African Americans’ discussions of living with HIV focused on the importance of and the challenges to sexuality and intimacy. Researchers and clinicians should be attentive to significant and ongoing HIV-related challenges to sexuality and intimacy facing older African Americans living with HIV/AIDS. PMID:26035889

Community centrality and social science research

PubMed Central

Allman, Dan

2015-01-01

Community centrality is a growing requirement of social science. The field's research practices are increasingly expected to conform to prescribed relationships with the people studied. Expectations about community centrality influence scholarly activities. These expectations can pressure social scientists to adhere to models of community involvement that are immediate and that include community-based co-investigators, advisory boards, and liaisons. In this context, disregarding community centrality can be interpreted as failure. This paper considers evolving norms about the centrality of community in social science. It problematises community inclusion and discusses concerns about the impact of community centrality on incremental theory development, academic integrity, freedom of speech, and the value of liberal versus communitarian knowledge. Through the application of a constructivist approach, this paper argues that social science in which community is omitted or on the periphery is not failed science, because not all social science requires a community base to make a genuine and valuable contribution. The utility of community centrality is not necessarily universal across all social science pursuits. The practices of knowing within social science disciplines may be difficult to transfer to a community. These practices of knowing require degrees of specialisation and interest that not all communities may want or have. PMID:26440071

Disconfirmation of Expectations of Utility in e-Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cacao, Rosario

2013-01-01

Using pre-training and post-training paired surveys in e-learning based training courses, we have compared the "expectations of utility," measured at the beginning of an e-learning course, with the "perceptions of utility," measured at the end of the course, and related it with the trainees' motivation. We have concluded that…

Using evaluation theory in priority setting and resource allocation.

PubMed

Smith, Neale; Mitton, Craig; Cornelissen, Evelyn; Gibson, Jennifer; Peacock, Stuart

2012-01-01

Public sector interest in methods for priority setting and program or policy evaluation has grown considerably over the last several decades, given increased expectations for accountable and efficient use of resources and emphasis on evidence-based decision making as a component of good management practice. While there has been some occasional effort to conduct evaluation of priority setting projects, the literatures around priority setting and evaluation have largely evolved separately. In this paper, the aim is to bring them together. The contention is that evaluation theory is a means by which evaluators reflect upon what it is they are doing when they do evaluation work. Theories help to organize thinking, sort out relevant from irrelevant information, provide transparent grounds for particular implementation choices, and can help resolve problematic issues which may arise in the conduct of an evaluation project. A detailed review of three major branches of evaluation theory--methods, utilization, and valuing--identifies how such theories can guide the development of efforts to evaluate priority setting and resource allocation initiatives. Evaluation theories differ in terms of their guiding question, anticipated setting or context, evaluation foci, perspective from which benefits are calculated, and typical methods endorsed. Choosing a particular theoretical approach will structure the way in which any priority setting process is evaluated. The paper suggests that explicitly considering evaluation theory makes key aspects of the evaluation process more visible to all stakeholders, and can assist in the design of effective evaluation of priority setting processes; this should iteratively serve to improve the understanding of priority setting practices themselves.

Reinforcement sensitivity theory and alcohol outcome expectancies in early adolescence.

PubMed

Lopez-Vergara, Hector I; Colder, Craig R; Hawk, Larry W; Wieczorek, William F; Eiden, Rina D; Lengua, Liliana J; Read, Jennifer P

2012-03-01

Little research has examined the development of alcohol expectancies in childhood, a notable omission as expectancies are viable targets for prevention programs. Moreover, limited alcohol expectancies research has been conducted from the perspective of psychobiological models of motivation despite the strong conceptual links between such models and cognitive models of alcohol use. To examine if the associations between individual differences from the revised reinforcement sensitivity theory (Gray JA, McNaughton N. The Neuropsychology of Anxiety: An Enquiry into the Functions of the Septo-hippocampal System (2nd ed.). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2000) and alcohol use is mediated by alcohol expectancies in a large community sample of early adolescents using a prospective design. 378 families (1 caregiver; 1 child) were recruited via random digit phone call using a prospective design. Our findings suggest that both a strong behavioral approach system and fight-flight or freeze system were associated with high levels of positive outcome expectancies, which subsequently predicted an increase in likelihood of alcohol use. There was also some evidence that drive (an aspect of behavioral approach system) was also positively associated with negative expectancies, which subsequently predicted a low probability of alcohol use. Individual differences in reinforcement sensitivity may influence the acquisition of positive and negative outcome expectancies, thereby potentially influencing the likelihood of alcohol use in early adolescence. Thus, reinforcement sensitivity theory is a promising theory to account for the link between neural models of addiction and early acquisition of alcohol use in humans.

The Belief and Attitude of the Drivers Toward the Usage of Cellphone while Driving; A Population-Based Survey

PubMed Central

Sedaghati Shokri, Batoul; Davoodi, Seyed Rasoul; Azimmohseni, Majid; Khoshfar, Gholamreza

2017-01-01

Objective: To presents a survey investigating differences between drivers' beliefs regarding utilizing cellphone when driving. Methods: In this population-based survey, the participants who were studied in the North of Iran, Gorgan, were categorized as main urban and rural areas. A sample of 400 drivers, 92 women and 308 men, filled out the four sections questionnaire which was based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) used for measuring the differences between the drivers' opinions (attitudinal beliefs, normative beliefs, and perceived control behavioral beliefs) about utilizing a cell phone when driving along with their age and driving purpose. Data were collected by distributing the 68- query questionnaire between the drivers. Results: The MANOVA analysis showed that important discrepancies were found between the normative, control and behavioral beliefs of cellular phone users while driving. As expected, frequent business and younger users with sturdy intention expressed more benefits of further concentration on family members and fewer obstacles that would prevent them from utilizing cellphone when driving than older and frequently personal users. Conclusion: These results indicated that the benefits of utilizing cellphone while driving are greater than its dangers. To reduce cellphone utilization when driving and increase road safety, more effort is required to lower the perceived advantages of the behavior and to outstand the risks of this hazardous driving act. PMID:29177176

The futility of utility: how market dynamics marginalize Adam Smith

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2000-10-01

Economic theorizing is based on the postulated, nonempiric notion of utility. Economists assume that prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. The results are supposed to represent mathematically the stabilizing action of Adam Smith's invisible hand. In deterministic excess demand dynamics I show the following. A utility function generally does not exist mathematically due to nonintegrable dynamics when production/investment are accounted for, resolving Mirowski's thesis. Price as a function of demand does not exist mathematically either. All equilibria are unstable. I then explain how deterministic chaos can be distinguished from random noise at short times. In the generalization to liquid markets and finance theory described by stochastic excess demand dynamics, I also show the following. Market price distributions cannot be rescaled to describe price movements as ‘equilibrium’ fluctuations about a systematic drift in price. Utility maximization does not describe equilibrium. Maximization of the Gibbs entropy of the observed price distribution of an asset would describe equilibrium, if equilibrium could be achieved, but equilibrium does not describe real, liquid markets (stocks, bonds, foreign exchange). There are three inconsistent definitions of equilibrium used in economics and finance, only one of which is correct. Prices in unregulated free markets are unstable against both noise and rising or falling expectations: Adam Smith's stabilizing invisible hand does not exist, either in mathematical models of liquid market data, or in real market data.

Adolescent-perceived parent and teacher overestimation of mathematics ability: Developmental implications for students' mathematics task values.

PubMed

Gniewosz, Burkhard; Watt, Helen M G

2017-07-01

This study examines whether and how student-perceived parents' and teachers' overestimation of students' own perceived mathematical ability can explain trajectories for adolescents' mathematical task values (intrinsic and utility) controlling for measured achievement, following expectancy-value and self-determination theories. Longitudinal data come from a 3-cohort (mean ages 13.25, 12.36, and 14.41 years; Grades 7-10), 4-wave data set of 1,271 Australian secondary school students. Longitudinal structural equation models revealed positive effects of student-perceived overestimation of math ability by parents and teachers on students' intrinsic and utility math task values development. Perceived parental overestimations predicted intrinsic task value changes between all measurement occasions, whereas utility task value changes only were predicted between Grades 9 and 10. Parental influences were stronger for intrinsic than utility task values. Teacher influences were similar for both forms of task values and commenced after the curricular school transition in Grade 8. Results support the assumptions that the perceived encouragement conveyed by student-perceived mathematical ability beliefs of parents and teachers, promote positive mathematics task values development. Moreover, results point to different mechanisms underlying parents' and teachers' support. Finally, the longitudinal changes indicate transition-related increases in the effects of student-perceived overestimations and stronger effects for intrinsic than utility values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

In search of a principled theory of the 'value' of knowledge.

PubMed

Castelfranchi, Cristiano

2016-01-01

A theory of the Value/Utility of information and knowledge (K) is not really there. This would require a theory of the centrality of Goals in minds, and of the role of K relative to Goals and their dynamics. K value is a notion relative to Goal value. Inf/K is precisely a resource, a means and the value of means depends on the value of their possible functions and uses. The claim of this paper is that Ks have a Value and Utility, they can be more or less 'precious'; they have a cost and imply some risks; they can be not only useful but negative and dangerous. We also examine the 'quality' of this resource: its reliability; and its crucial role in goal processing: activating goals, abandoning, choosing, planning, formulating intentions, decide to act. 'Relevance theory', Information theory, Epistemic Utility theory, etc. are not enough for providing a theory of the Value/Utility of K. And also truthfulness is not 'the' Value of K. Even true information can be noxious for the subject.

Some difficulties and inconsistencies when using habit strength and reasoned action variables in models of metered household water conservation.

PubMed

Jorgensen, Bradley S; Martin, John F; Pearce, Meryl; Willis, Eileen

2013-01-30

Research employing household water consumption data has sought to test models of water demand and conservation using variables from attitude theory. A significant, albeit unrecognised, challenge has been that attitude models describe individual-level motivations while consumption data is recorded at the household level thereby creating inconsistency between units of theory and measurement. This study employs structural equation modelling and moderated regression techniques to addresses the level of analysis problem, and tests hypotheses by isolating effects on water conservation in single-person households. Furthermore, the results question the explanatory utility of habit strength, perceived behavioural control, and intentions for understanding metered water conservation in single-person households. For example, evidence that intentions predict water conservation or that they interact with habit strength in single-person households was contrary to theoretical expectations. On the other hand, habit strength, self-reports of past water conservation, and perceived behavioural control were good predictors of intentions to conserve water. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Do Perceived Descriptive Norms Influence Indoor Tanning Intentions? An Application of the Theory of Normative Social Behavior.

PubMed

Carcioppolo, Nick; Orrego Dunleavy, Victoria; Yang, Qinghua

2017-02-01

Indoor tanning bed use is highly influenced by perceived norms about a tanned appearance. The theory of normative social behavior (TNSB) details the many ways in which norms can impact intentions and behavior, but has never been assessed in the context of indoor tanning. Considering this, we conducted a survey among female university students (N = 274) to determine the extent to which the TNSB predicted intentions to use indoor tanning beds. Overall, the path model predicted about 46% of the variance in intentions, and the majority of significant indirect effects were witnessed through the outcome expectation variables included in the TNSB, suggesting that these may be the most salient mechanisms-as predicted by the TNSB-through which norms can impact tanning intentions. In light of these results, theoretical and practical implications are discussed, and specific recommendations are given to extend the predictive utility of the TNSB in the context of indoor tanning.

Self-Determination Theory Applied to Health Contexts: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Ng, Johan Y Y; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Thøgersen-Ntoumani, Cecilie; Deci, Edward L; Ryan, Richard M; Duda, Joan L; Williams, Geoffrey C

2012-07-01

Behavior change is more effective and lasting when patients are autonomously motivated. To examine this idea, we identified 184 independent data sets from studies that utilized self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 2000) in health care and health promotion contexts. A meta-analysis evaluated relations between the SDT-based constructs of practitioner support for patient autonomy and patients' experience of psychological need satisfaction, as well as relations between these SDT constructs and indices of mental and physical health. Results showed the expected relations among the SDT variables, as well as positive relations of psychological need satisfaction and autonomous motivation to beneficial health outcomes. Several variables (e.g., participants' age, study design) were tested as potential moderators when effect sizes were heterogeneous. Finally, we used path analyses of the meta-analyzed correlations to test the interrelations among the SDT variables. Results suggested that SDT is a viable conceptual framework to study antecedents and outcomes of motivation for health-related behaviors. © The Author(s) 2012.

How Do Perceived Descriptive Norms Influence Indoor Tanning Intentions? An Application of the Theory of Normative Social Behavior

PubMed Central

Carcioppolo, Nick; Orrego, Victoria; Yang, Qinghua

2017-01-01

Indoor tanning bed use is highly influenced by perceived norms about a tanned appearance. The theory of normative social behavior (TNSB) details the many ways in which norms can impact intentions and behavior, but has never been assessed in the context of indoor tanning. Considering this, we conducted a survey among female university students (N = 274) to determine the extent to which the TNSB predicted intentions to use indoor tanning beds. Overall, the path model predicted about 46% of the variance in intentions, and the majority of significant indirect effects were witnessed through the outcome expectation variables included in the TNSB, suggesting that these may be the most salient mechanisms – as predicted by the TNSB – through which norms can impact tanning intentions. In light of these results, theoretical and practical implications are discussed, and specific recommendations are given to extend the predictive utility of the TNSB in the context of indoor tanning. PMID:27230254

Theory of Mind and Emotion Understanding Predict Moral Development in Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Lane, Jonathan D.; Wellman, Henry M.; Olson, Sheryl L.; LaBounty, Jennifer; Kerr, David C. R.

2011-01-01

The current study utilized longitudinal data to investigate how theory of mind (ToM) and emotion understanding (EU) concurrently and prospectively predicted young children’s moral reasoning and decision-making. One hundred twenty-eight children were assessed on measures of ToM and EU at 3.5 years- and 5.5 years-of-age. At 5.5 years, children were also assessed on the quality of moral reasoning and decision-making they used to negotiate prosocial moral dilemmas, in which the needs of a story protagonist conflict with the needs of another story character. More sophisticated EU predicted greater use of physical- and material-needs reasoning, and a more advanced ToM predicted greater use of psychological-needs reasoning. Most intriguing, ToM and EU jointly predicted greater use of higher-level acceptance-authority reasoning, which is likely a product of children’s increasing appreciation for the knowledge held by trusted adults and children’s desire to behave in accordance with social expectations. PMID:21121472

Research on ion implantation in MEMS device fabrication by theory, simulation and experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Minyu; Zhao, Yulong; Jiao, Binbin; Zhu, Lingjian; Zhang, Guodong; Wang, Lei

2018-06-01

Ion implantation is widely utilized in microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), applied for embedded lead, resistors, conductivity modifications and so forth. In order to achieve an expected device, the principle of ion implantation must be carefully examined. The elementary theory of ion implantation including implantation mechanism, projectile range and implantation-caused damage in the target were studied, which can be regarded as the guidance of ion implantation in MEMS device design and fabrication. Critical factors including implantations dose, energy and annealing conditions are examined by simulations and experiments. The implantation dose mainly determines the dopant concentration in the target substrate. The implantation energy is the key factor of the depth of the dopant elements. The annealing time mainly affects the repair degree of lattice damage and thus the activated elements’ ratio. These factors all together contribute to ions’ behavior in the substrates and characters of the devices. The results can be referred to in the MEMS design, especially piezoresistive devices.

Theory of mind and emotion understanding predict moral development in early childhood.

PubMed

Lane, Jonathan D; Wellman, Henry M; Olson, Sheryl L; LaBounty, Jennifer; Kerr, David C R

2010-11-01

The current study utilized longitudinal data to investigate how theory of mind (ToM) and emotion understanding (EU) concurrently and prospectively predicted young children's moral reasoning and decision making. One hundred twenty-eight children were assessed on measures of ToM and EU at 3.5 and 5.5 years of age. At 5.5 years, children were also assessed on the quality of moral reasoning and decision making they used to negotiate prosocial moral dilemmas, in which the needs of a story protagonist conflict with the needs of another story character. More sophisticated EU predicted greater use of physical- and material-needs reasoning, and a more advanced ToM predicted greater use of psychological-needs reasoning. Most intriguing, ToM and EU jointly predicted greater use of higher-level acceptance-authority reasoning, which is likely a product of children's increasing appreciation for the knowledge held by trusted adults and children's desire to behave in accordance with social expectations.

Psychological theory testing versus psychometric nay-saying: comment on Neuberg et al.'s (1997) critique of the need for closure scale.

PubMed

Kruglanski, A W; Atash, M N; DeGrada, E; Mannetti, L; Pierro, A; Webster, D M

1997-11-01

S. L. Neuberg, T. N. Judice, and S. G. West (1997) faulted our work with the Need for Closure Scale (NFCS) on grounds that the NFCS lacks discriminant validity relative to S. L. Neuberg's and J. T. Newsom's (1993) Personal Need for Structure (PNS) Scale and is multidimensional, which, so they claim, renders the use of its total score inadmissible. By contrast, the present authors show that neither of the above assertions is incompatible with the underlying need for closure theory. Relations between NFCS and the PNS are to be expected, as these were designed to operationalize the very same construct (of need for closure). Furthermore, no unidimensionality of the NFCS has been claimed, and none is required to use its total score for testing various theoretically derived predictions. An instrument's ultimate utility hinges on theoretical considerations and empirical evidence rather than on questionable psychometric dogma unrelated to the substantive matters at hand.

The cubic ternary complex receptor-occupancy model. III. resurrecting efficacy.

PubMed

Weiss, J M; Morgan, P H; Lutz, M W; Kenakin, T P

1996-08-21

Early work in pharmacology characterized the interaction of receptors and ligands in terms of two parameters, affinity and efficacy, an approach we term the bipartite view. A precise formulation of efficacy only exists for very simple pharmacological models. Here we extend the notion of efficacy to models that incorporate receptor activation and G-protein coupling. Using the cubic ternary complex model, we show that efficacy is not purely a property of the ligand-receptor interaction; it also depends upon the distributional details of the receptor species in the native receptor ensemble. This suggests a distinction between what we call potential efficacy (a vector) and realized efficacy (a scalar). To each receptor species in the native receptor ensemble we assign a part-worth utility; taken together these utilities comprise the potential efficacy vector. Realized efficacy is the expectation of these part-worth utilities with respect to the frequency distribution of receptor species in the native receptor ensemble. In the parlance of statistical decision theory, the binding of a ligand to a receptor ensemble is a random prospect and realized efficacy is the utility of this prospect. We explore the implications that our definition of efficacy has for understanding agonism and in assessing the legitimacy of the bipartite view in pharmacology.

The applicability of the UK Public Health Skills and Knowledge Framework to the practitioner workforce: lessons for competency framework development.

PubMed

Shickle, Darren; Stroud, Laura; Day, Matthew; Smith, Kevin

2018-06-05

Many countries have developed competency frameworks for public health practice. While the number of competencies vary, frameworks cover similar knowledge and skills although they are not explicitly based on competency theory. A total of 15 qualitative group interviews (of up to six people), were conducted with 51 public health practitioners in 8 local authorities to assess the extent to which practitioners utilize competencies defined within the UK Public Health Skills and Knowledge Framework (PHSKF). Framework analysis was applied to the transcribed interviews. The overall framework was seen positively although no participants had previously read or utilized the PHSKF. Most could provide evidence, although some PHSKF competencies required creative thinking to fit expectations of practitioners and to reflect variation across the domains of practice which are impacted by job role and level of seniority. Evidence from previous NHS jobs or education may be needed as some competencies were not regularly utilized within their current local authority role. Further development of the PHSKF is required to provide guidance on how it should be used for practitioners and other members of the public health workforce. Empirical research can help benchmark knowledge/skills for workforce levels so improving the utility of competency frameworks.

Evaluating the Value of Information in the Presence of High Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

in this hierarchy is subsumed in the Knowledge and Information layers. If information with high expected value is identified, it then passes up...be, the higher is its value. Based on the idea of expected utility of asking a question [36], Nelson [31] discusses different approaches for...18] formalizes the expected value of a sample of information using the concept of pre-posterior analysis as the expected increase in utility by

A self-determination theory and motivational interviewing intervention to decrease racial/ethnic disparities in physical activity: rationale and design.

PubMed

Miller, Lauren S; Gramzow, Richard H

2016-08-11

Although the mental and physical benefits of physical activity are well-established, there is a racial/ethnic disparity in activity such that minorities are much less likely to engage in physical activity than are White individuals. Research suggests that a lack of motivation may be an important barrier to physical activity for racial/ethnic minorities. Therefore, interventions that increase participants' motivation may be especially useful in promoting physical activity within these groups. Physical activity interventions that utilized the clinical technique of motivational interviewing (MI) in conjunction with the theoretical background of self-determination theory (SDT) have been effective in increasing White individuals' physical activity. Nevertheless, it remains unclear the extent to which these results apply to minority populations. The current study involves conducting a 12-week physical activity intervention based on SDT and MI to promote physical activity in a racially/ethnically-diverse sample. It is hypothesized that this intervention will successfully increase physical activity in participants. Specifically, it is expected that minorities will experience a greater relative increase in physical activity than Whites within the intervention group because minorities are expected to have lower baseline levels of activity. Results from this study will give us a greater understanding of the generalizability of SDT interventions designed to improve motivation for physical activity and level of physical activity. Clinical Trials Gov. Identifier NCT02250950 Registered 24 September 2014.

Resolving the theory of planned behaviour's 'expectancy-value muddle' using dimensional salience.

PubMed

Newton, Joshua D; Ewing, Michael T; Burney, Sue; Hay, Margaret

2012-01-01

The theory of planned behaviour is one of the most widely used models of decision-making in the health literature. Unfortunately, the primary method for assessing the theory's belief-based expectancy-value models results in statistically uninterpretable findings, giving rise to what has become known as the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Moreover, existing methods for resolving this muddle are associated with various conceptual or practical limitations. This study addresses these issues by identifying and evaluating a parsimonious method for resolving the expectancy-value muddle. Three hundred and nine Australian residents aged 18-24 years rated the expectancy and value of 18 beliefs about posthumous organ donation. Participants also nominated their five most salient beliefs using a dimensional salience approach. Salient beliefs were perceived as being more likely to eventuate than non-salient beliefs, indicating that salient beliefs could be used to signify the expectancy component. The expectancy-value term was therefore represented by summing the value ratings of salient beliefs, an approach that predicted attitude (adjusted R2 = 0.21) and intention (adjusted R2 = 0.21). These findings suggest that the dimensional salience approach is a useful method for overcoming the expectancy-value muddle in applied research settings.

A review of the outcome expectancy construct in physical activity research.

PubMed

Williams, David M; Anderson, Eileen S; Winett, Richard A

2005-02-01

Outcome expectancy is a central construct in social cognitive models of health behavior widely used as frameworks for physical activity research. This article provides a review of the outcome expectancy construct and its application to research on physical activity. Theoretical articles describing definitions and placement of outcome expectancy within social cognitive models, as well as empirical research on outcome expectancy and physical activity, were reviewed. Self-efficacy theory, the transtheoretical model, the theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory differ in their labeling and conceptualization of outcome expectancy but unanimously include expected outcomes of behavior. Preliminary empirical investigation of the role of outcome expectancy in understanding physical activity has yielded mixed results. Positive outcome expectancy appears to be more predictive of physical activity in older adults than in young to middle-aged adults, and personal barriers appear to be the most predictive subtype of negative outcome expectancy. In addition, a small number of studies indicate relations between outcome expectancy and other theoretical variables, including behavioral intention, stage of change, and self-efficacy. Further research on the role of outcome expectancy is necessary to design effective physical activity interventions. New directions in outcome expectancy research could involve (a) expanding the conceptualization of outcome expectancy to include expected outcomes of sedentary behavior and affective responses to physical activity, (b) further examination of potential moderators of the relation between outcome expectancy and physical activity (such as outcome value and outcome proximity), (c) distinguishing between the role of outcome expectancy in behavior onset versus behavior maintenance, (d) examining outcome expectancy as a mechanism of change in environmental intervention approaches, and (e) further analysis of interrelations between outcome expectancy and other social cognitive variables.

The benefit of expecting no conflict--Stronger influence of self-generated than cue-induced conflict expectations on Stroop performance.

PubMed

Kemper, Maike; Gaschler, Robert; Schwager, Sabine; Schubert, Torsten

2016-01-01

The role of expectations in sequential adaptation to cognitive conflict has been debated controversially in prior studies. On the one hand, a sequential congruency effect (SCE) has been reported for trials in which participants expect a repetition of conflict level. On the other hand, conflict level expectations vs. the SCE have been shown to develop differentially across runs of trials with the same conflict level, arguing against the theory that the SCE is purely driven by expectation. The current verbal Stroop experiment addresses this controversy by two means. First, we tested which specific type of expectation (cue-induced expectations vs. self-generated predictions) might affect the SCE. Second, we assessed the impact of expectation on the SCE as well as the development of SCE and expectation with congruency level run length in one design. We observed a dissociation between expectations and SCE, demonstrating that the SCE is not exclusively driven by expectations. At the same time, we found evidence that (self-generated) expectations do have an impact on the SCE. Our data document especially high performance for one specific combination of task events: congruent trial accompanied by congruent prediction and conflict level repetition. Our results are in line with theories attributing conflict adaptation effects to the "adaption to the lack of conflict". We discuss our results in a broader context of theories about conflict monitoring. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Are One Man's Rags Another Man's Riches? Identifying Adaptive Expectations Using Panel Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burchardt, Tania

2005-01-01

One of the motivations frequently cited by Sen and Nussbaum for moving away from a utility metric towards a capabilities framework is a concern about adaptive preferences or conditioned expectations. If utility is related to the satisfaction of aspirations or expectations, and if these are affected by the individual's previous experience of…

Localized AdS_{5}×S^{5} Black Holes.

PubMed

Dias, Óscar J C; Santos, Jorge E; Way, Benson

2016-10-07

According to heuristic arguments, global AdS_{5}×S^{5} black holes are expected to undergo a phase transition in the microcanonical ensemble. At high energies, one expects black holes that respect the symmetries of the S^{5}; at low energies, one expects "localized" black holes that appear pointlike on the S^{5}. According to anti-de Sitter/conformal field theory correspondence, N=4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills (SYM) theory on a 3-sphere should therefore exhibit spontaneous R-symmetry breaking at strong coupling. In this Letter, we numerically construct these localized black holes. We extrapolate the location of this phase transition, and compute the expectation value of the broken scalar operator with lowest conformal dimension. Via the correspondence, these results offer quantitative predictions for N=4 SYM theory.

Understanding unemployed people's job search behaviour, unemployment experience and well-being: a comparison of expectancy-value theory and self-determination theory.

PubMed

Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Lens, Willy; De Witte, Hans; Feather, N T

2005-06-01

Previous unemployment research has directly tested hypotheses derived from expectancy-value theory (EVT; Feather, 1982, 1990), but no comparative analysis has been executed with another motivational framework. In one large study with 446 unemployed people, separate analyses provided good evidence for predictions derived from both EVT and self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000). Comparative analyses indicated that the type of people's job search motivation, as conceptualized through the notions of autonomous versus controlled motivation within SDT, is an important predictor of people's unemployment experience and wellbeing, beyond people's strength of motivation assessed within EVT through expectancies of finding a job and employment value. The importance of simultaneously testing two theoretical frameworks is discussed.

Evaluation utilization research--developing a theory and putting it to use.

PubMed

Neuman, Ari; Shahor, Neria; Shina, Ilan; Sarid, Anat; Saar, Zehava

2013-02-01

This article presents the findings of a two-stage study that had two key objectives: to develop a theory about evaluation utilization in an educational organization and to apply this theory to promote evaluation utilization within the organization. The first stage involved a theoretical conceptualization using a participatory method of concept mapping. This process identified the modes of evaluation utilization within the organization, produced a representation of the relationship between them and led to a theory. The second stage examined the practical implications of this conceptualization in terms of how different stakeholders in the organization perceive the actual and preferable state of evaluation utilization within the organization (i.e. to what extent is evaluation utilized and to what extent should it be utilized). The participatory process of the study promoted the evaluation utilization by involving stakeholders, thus giving them a sense of ownership and improving communication between the evaluation unit and the stakeholders. In addition, understanding the evaluation needs of the stakeholders in the organization helped generate relevant and realizable evaluation processes. On a practical level, the results are currently shaping the evaluation plan and the place of evaluations within the organization. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple utility constrained multi-objective programs using Bayesian theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasian, Pooneh; Mahdavi-Amiri, Nezam; Fazlollahtabar, Hamed

2018-03-01

A utility function is an important tool for representing a DM's preference. We adjoin utility functions to multi-objective optimization problems. In current studies, usually one utility function is used for each objective function. Situations may arise for a goal to have multiple utility functions. Here, we consider a constrained multi-objective problem with each objective having multiple utility functions. We induce the probability of the utilities for each objective function using Bayesian theory. Illustrative examples considering dependence and independence of variables are worked through to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

The decisive future of inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David

2018-05-01

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements. This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging. We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity. We also modify the form of the expected utility, as previously introduced in the literature in different contexts, in order to partition each possible future into either the rejection of models at the level of the maximum likelihood or the decision between models using Bayesian model comparison. We then quantify the ability of future experiments to constrain the reheating temperature and the scalar running. Our approach allows us to discuss possible strategies for maximising information from future cosmological surveys. In particular, our conclusions suggest that, in the context of inflationary model selection, a decrease in the measurement uncertainty of the scalar spectral index would be more decisive than a decrease in the uncertainty in the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We have incorporated our approach into a publicly available python class, foxi,1 that can be readily applied to any survey optimisation problem.

A socio-cultural instrumental approach to emotion regulation: Culture and the regulation of positive emotions.

PubMed

Ma, Xiaoming; Tamir, Maya; Miyamoto, Yuri

2018-02-01

We propose a sociocultural instrumental approach to emotion regulation. According to this approach, cultural differences in the tendency to savor rather than dampen positive emotions should be more pronounced when people are actively pursuing goals (i.e., contexts requiring higher cognitive effort) than when they are not (i.e., contexts requiring lower cognitive efforts), because cultural beliefs about the utility of positive emotions should become most relevant when people are engaging in active goal pursuit. Four studies provided support for our theory. First, European Americans perceived more utility and less harm of positive emotions than Japanese did (Study 1). Second, European Americans reported a stronger relative preference for positive emotions than Asians, but this cultural difference was larger in high cognitive effort contexts than in moderate or low cognitive effort contexts (Study 2). Third, European Americans reported trying to savor rather than dampen positive emotions more than Asians did when preparing to take an exam, a typical high cognitive effort context (Studies 3-4), but these cultural differences were attenuated when an exam was not expected (Study 3) and disappeared when participants expected to interact with a stranger (Study 4). These findings suggest that cultural backgrounds and situational demands interact to shape how people regulate positive emotions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Modern prescription theory and application: realistic expectations for speech recognition with hearing AIDS.

PubMed

Johnson, Earl E

2013-01-01

A major decision at the time of hearing aid fitting and dispensing is the amount of amplification to provide listeners (both adult and pediatric populations) for the appropriate compensation of sensorineural hearing impairment across a range of frequencies (e.g., 160-10000 Hz) and input levels (e.g., 50-75 dB sound pressure level). This article describes modern prescription theory for hearing aids within the context of a risk versus return trade-off and efficient frontier analyses. The expected return of amplification recommendations (i.e., generic prescriptions such as National Acoustic Laboratories-Non-Linear 2, NAL-NL2, and Desired Sensation Level Multiple Input/Output, DSL m[i/o]) for the Speech Intelligibility Index (SII) and high-frequency audibility were traded against a potential risk (i.e., loudness). The modeled performance of each prescription was compared one with another and with the efficient frontier of normal hearing sensitivity (i.e., a reference point for the most return with the least risk). For the pediatric population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while DSL m[i/o] was more efficient for high-frequency audibility. For the adult population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while the two prescriptions were similar with regard to high-frequency audibility. In terms of absolute return (i.e., not considering the risk of loudness), however, DSL m[i/o] prescribed more outright high-frequency audibility than NAL-NL2 for either aged population, particularly, as hearing loss increased. Given the principles and demonstrated accuracy of desensitization (reduced utility of audibility with increasing hearing loss) observed at the group level, additional high-frequency audibility beyond that of NAL-NL2 is not expected to make further contributions to speech intelligibility (recognition) for the average listener.

An Attributional Theory of Achievement Motivation and Emotion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiner, Bernard

1985-01-01

This article advances an attributional theory of motivation and emotion, with achievement strivings as the theoretical focus. Causes of success and failure share three common properties: locus, stability, and controllability. Stability of causes influences changes in expectancy of success. Expectancy and affect guide motivated behavior.…

Great Expectations: Is there Evidence for Predictive Coding in Auditory Cortex?

PubMed

Heilbron, Micha; Chait, Maria

2017-08-04

Predictive coding is possibly one of the most influential, comprehensive, and controversial theories of neural function. While proponents praise its explanatory potential, critics object that key tenets of the theory are untested or even untestable. The present article critically examines existing evidence for predictive coding in the auditory modality. Specifically, we identify five key assumptions of the theory and evaluate each in the light of animal, human and modeling studies of auditory pattern processing. For the first two assumptions - that neural responses are shaped by expectations and that these expectations are hierarchically organized - animal and human studies provide compelling evidence. The anticipatory, predictive nature of these expectations also enjoys empirical support, especially from studies on unexpected stimulus omission. However, for the existence of separate error and prediction neurons, a key assumption of the theory, evidence is lacking. More work exists on the proposed oscillatory signatures of predictive coding, and on the relation between attention and precision. However, results on these latter two assumptions are mixed or contradictory. Looking to the future, more collaboration between human and animal studies, aided by model-based analyses will be needed to test specific assumptions and implementations of predictive coding - and, as such, help determine whether this popular grand theory can fulfill its expectations. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Empirical Specification of Utility Functions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellenbergh, Gideon J.

Decision theory can be applied to four types of decision situations in education and psychology: (1) selection; (2) placement; (3) classification; and (4) mastery. For the application of the theory, a utility function must be specified. Usually the utility function is chosen on a priori grounds. In this paper methods for the empirical assessment…

Comparison of student confidence and perceptions of biochemistry concepts using a team-based learning versus traditional lecture-based format.

PubMed

Gryka, Rebecca; Kiersma, Mary E; Frame, Tracy R; Cailor, Stephanie M; Chen, Aleda M H

To evaluate differences in student confidence and perceptions of biochemistry concepts using a team-based learning (TBL) format versus a traditional lecture-based format at two universities. Two pedagogies (TBL vs lecture-based) were utilized to deliver biochemistry concepts at two universities in a first-professional year, semester-long biochemistry course. A 21-item instrument was created and administered pre-post semester to assess changes in confidence in learning biochemistry concepts using Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory (eight items, 5-point, Likert-type) and changes in student perceptions of biochemistry utilizing the theory of planned behavior (TPB) domains (13 items, 7- point, Likert-type). Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to evaluate pre-post changes, and Mann Whitney U tests for differences between universities. All students (N=111) had more confidence in biochemistry concepts post-semester, but TBL students (N=53) were significantly more confident. TBL students also had greater agreement that they are expected to actively engage in science courses post-semester, according to the perceptions of biochemistry subscale. No other differences between lecture and TBL were observed post-semester. Students in a TBL course had greater gains in confidence. Since students often engage in tasks where they feel confident, TBL can be a useful pedagogy to promote student learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weight-gain misperceptions and the third-person effect in Black and White college-bound females: potential implications for healthy weight management.

PubMed

Webb, Jennifer B; Butler-Ajibade, Phoebe; Robinson, Seronda A; Lee, Shanique J

2013-08-01

Elements of social norm theory and communication theory on the third-person effect may prove useful in efforts to prevent excessive weight gain among emerging adults entering college. The present study explored the associations of race/ethnicity and BMI status with these socio-cognitive factors that may affect first-year weight regulation in a sample of Black (N = 247) and White (N = 94) college-bound females. Participants completed an online survey assessing first-year weight-gain perceived norms along with weight-change expectations and concerns. Results provided evidence of the persistence of the myth of the "Freshman 15", belief in the typicality of gaining weight during the first year of college, and significant concern about first-year weight gain. Initial findings further revealed a robust third-person effect whereby despite nearly 90% of the sample endorsing that first-year weight gain was common, only 12% expected they would experience weight gain. Main effects of race/ethnicity, BMI status, and their interaction further uncovered distinct patterns of findings. Preliminary results highlight the need for college health officials at both predominantly White as well as minority-serving institutions to adequately address the significant concern over first-year weight gain in conjunction with the desire to lose weight expressed by an appreciable number of incoming college females. Findings also advocate the utility of evaluating social norm theory and the third-person perceptual bias in the context of first-year weight gain to potentially enhance the design and effectiveness of healthy weight management initiatives among ethnically-diverse young women entering college. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prescriptive models to support decision making in genetics.

PubMed

Pauker, S G; Pauker, S P

1987-01-01

Formal prescriptive models can help patients and clinicians better understand the risks and uncertainties they face and better formulate well-reasoned decisions. Using Bayes rule, the clinician can interpret pedigrees, historical data, physical findings and laboratory data, providing individualized probabilities of various diagnoses and outcomes of pregnancy. With the advent of screening programs for genetic disease, it becomes increasingly important to consider the prior probabilities of disease when interpreting an abnormal screening test result. Decision trees provide a convenient formalism for structuring diagnostic, therapeutic and reproductive decisions; such trees can also enhance communication between clinicians and patients. Utility theory provides a mechanism for patients to understand the choices they face and to communicate their attitudes about potential reproductive outcomes in a manner which encourages the integration of those attitudes into appropriate decisions. Using a decision tree, the relevant probabilities and the patients' utilities, physicians can estimate the relative worth of various medical and reproductive options by calculating the expected utility of each. By performing relevant sensitivity analyses, clinicians and patients can understand the impact of various soft data, including the patients' attitudes toward various health outcomes, on the decision making process. Formal clinical decision analytic models can provide deeper understanding and improved decision making in clinical genetics.

Using science and psychology to improve the dissemination and evaluation of scientific work.

PubMed

Buttliere, Brett T

2014-01-01

Here I outline some of what science can tell us about the problems in psychological publishing and how to best address those problems. First, the motivation behind questionable research practices is examined (the desire to get ahead or, at least, not fall behind). Next, behavior modification strategies are discussed, pointing out that reward works better than punishment. Humans are utility seekers and the implementation of current change initiatives is hindered by high initial buy-in costs and insufficient expected utility. Open science tools interested in improving science should team up, to increase utility while lowering the cost and risk associated with engagement. The best way to realign individual and group motives will probably be to create one, centralized, easy to use, platform, with a profile, a feed of targeted science stories based upon previous system interaction, a sophisticated (public) discussion section, and impact metrics which use the associated data. These measures encourage high quality review and other prosocial activities while inhibiting self-serving behavior. Some advantages of centrally digitizing communications are outlined, including ways the data could be used to improve the peer review process. Most generally, it seems that decisions about change design and implementation should be theory and data driven.

Naive Theories of Social Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhodes, Marjorie

2012-01-01

Four studies examined children's (ages 3-10, Total N = 235) naive theories of social groups, in particular, their expectations about how group memberships constrain social interactions. After introduction to novel groups of people, preschoolers (ages 3-5) reliably expected agents from one group to harm members of the other group (rather than…

An Expectancy Theory Motivation Approach to Peer Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Barry A.; Cox, Pamela L.; Maher, Larry E.

2008-01-01

Group projects are an important component of higher education, and the use of peer assessment of students' individual contributions to group projects has increased. The researchers employed an expectancy theory approach and an experimental design in a field setting to investigate conditions that influence students' motivation to rate their peers'…

Expectancy Theory Prediction of the Preference to Remain Employed or to Retire

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eran, Mordechai; Jacobson, Dan

1976-01-01

Vroom's expectancy theory model to predict older worker's choices between employment or retirement hypothesized that a person's preference would be a function of differences between instrumentality of employment and retirement for attainment of outcomes, multiplied by the valence of each outcome, summed over outcomes. Results supported the…

Perturbative test of exact vacuum expectation values of local fields in affine Toda theories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, Changrim; Baseilhac, P.; Kim, Chanju

Vacuum expectation values of local fields for all dual pairs of nonsimply laced affine Toda field theories recently proposed are checked against perturbative analysis. The computations based on Feynman diagram expansion are performed up to the two-loop level. We obtain, good agreement.

Social anxiety, alcohol expectancies, and self-efficacy as predictors of heavy drinking in college students.

PubMed

Gilles, Donna M; Turk, Cynthia L; Fresco, David M

2006-03-01

Burke and Stephens (1999) [Burke, R.S., Stephens, R.S. Social anxiety and drinking in college students: A social cognitive theory analysis. Clinical Psychology Review, 19, (1999) 513-530.] proposed a social cognitive theory of heavy drinking in college students. According to this theory, alcohol expectancies for social facilitation and self-efficacy for refusing heavy drinking in anxiety-producing social situations moderate the relationship between social anxiety and drinking. In the current study, a significant three-way interaction was observed among social anxiety, expectancies, and self-efficacy when amount and frequency of drinking was the dependent variable. As predicted by the model, socially anxious college students with low self-efficacy for avoiding heavy drinking in social situations and high positive expectancies for social facilitation reported more alcohol consumption than other socially anxious individuals.

Effects of Communication Expectancies, Actual Communication, and Expectancy Disconfirmation on Evaluations of Communicators and Their Communication Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgoon, Judee K.; Le Poire, Beth A.

1993-01-01

Investigates the perseverance of preinteraction expectancies in the face of actual communication behavior, the separate effects of personal attribute and communication expectancies, and the role of expectancy confirmation or disconfirmation on postinteraction evaluations. Confirms the validity of expectancy violations theory. (SR)

Knowledge-for-Action Theories in Evaluation: Knowledge Utilization, Diffusion, Implementation, Transfer, and Translation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ottoson, Judith M.

2009-01-01

Five knowledge-for-action theories are summarized and compared in this chapter for their evaluation implications: knowledge utilization, diffusion, implementation, transfer, and translation. Usually dispersed across multiple fields and disciplines, these theories are gathered here for a common focus on knowledge and change. Knowledge in some form…

Morals matter in economic games.

PubMed

Brodbeck, Felix C; Kugler, Katharina G; Reif, Julia A M; Maier, Markus A

2013-01-01

Contrary to predictions from Expected Utility Theory and Game Theory, when making economic decisions in interpersonal situations, people take the interest of others into account and express various forms of solidarity, even in one-shot interactions with anonymous strangers. Research in other-regarding behavior is dominated by behavioral economical and evolutionary biological approaches. Psychological theory building, which addresses mental processes underlying other-regarding behavior, is rare. Based on Relational Models Theory (RMT, [1]) and Relationship Regulation Theory (RRT, [2]) it is proposed that moral motives influence individuals' decision behavior in interpersonal situations via conscious and unconscious (automatic) processes. To test our propositions we developed the 'Dyadic Solidarity Game' and its solitary equivalent, the 'Self-Insurance Game'. Four experiments, in which the moral motives "Unity" and "Proportionality" were manipulated, support the propositions made. First, it was shown that consciously activated moral motives (via framing of the overall goal of the experiment) and unconsciously activated moral motives (via subliminal priming) influence other-regarding behavior. Second, this influence was only found in interpersonal, not in solitary situations. Third, by combining the analyses of the two experimental games the extent to which participants apply the Golden Rule ("treat others how you wish to be treated") could be established. Individuals with a "Unity" motive treated others like themselves, whereas individuals with a "Proportionality" motive gave others less then they gave themselves. The four experiments not only support the assumption that morals matter in economic games, they also deliver new insights in how morals matter in economic decision making.

A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortes, Antonio I.

The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer hypotheses for human testing using flight simulators.

A Theory of Utility Conditionals: Paralogical Reasoning from Decision-Theoretic Leakage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonnefon, Jean-Francois

2009-01-01

Many "if p, then q" conditionals have decision-theoretic features, such as antecedents or consequents that relate to the utility functions of various agents. These decision-theoretic features leak into reasoning processes, resulting in various paralogical conclusions. The theory of utility conditionals offers a unified account of the various forms…

Outcome expectancy and self-efficacy: theoretical implications of an unresolved contradiction.

PubMed

Williams, David M

2010-11-01

According to self-efficacy theory, self-efficacy--defined as perceived capability to perform a behavior--causally influences expected outcomes of behavior, but not vice versa. However, research has shown that expected outcomes causally influence self-efficacy judgments, and some authors have argued that this relationship invalidates self-efficacy theory. Bandura has rebutted those arguments saying that self-efficacy judgments are not invalidated when influenced by expected outcomes. This article focuses on a contradiction in Bandura's rebuttal. Specifically, Bandura has argued (a) expected outcomes cannot causally influence self-efficacy, but (b) self-efficacy judgments remain valid when causally influenced by expected outcomes. While the debate regarding outcome expectancies and self-efficacy has subsided in recent years, the inattention to this contradiction has led to a disproportionate focus on self-efficacy as a causal determinant of behavior at the expense of expected outcomes.

Ideology and gender: observers' system justification and targets' gender as interactive predictors of citizenship expectations.

PubMed

Chiaburu, Dan S; Harris, T Brad; Smith, Troy A

2014-01-01

We integrate system justification and social role theory to explain how observers' system justification and target employees' gender interact to predict observers' expectations of targets' sportsmanship citizenship behaviors. In contrast with social role theory predictions, observers did not expect greater levels of sportsmanship from women compared to men. Yet observers expected more sportsmanship from women (a) when observers were ideologically motivated by gender-specific beliefs (gender-specific system justification; Study 1) and (b) when system justification was cued experimentally (Study 2). A heretofore-unexamined aspect, observers' ideology, modifies their expectations of sportsmanship citizenship across target genders. This has implications for system justification, social role, and organizational citizenship theoretical perspectives.

Organizational theory for dissemination and implementation research.

PubMed

Birken, Sarah A; Bunger, Alicia C; Powell, Byron J; Turner, Kea; Clary, Alecia S; Klaman, Stacey L; Yu, Yan; Whitaker, Daniel J; Self, Shannon R; Rostad, Whitney L; Chatham, Jenelle R Shanley; Kirk, M Alexis; Shea, Christopher M; Haines, Emily; Weiner, Bryan J

2017-05-12

Even under optimal internal organizational conditions, implementation can be undermined by changes in organizations' external environments, such as fluctuations in funding, adjustments in contracting practices, new technology, new legislation, changes in clinical practice guidelines and recommendations, or other environmental shifts. Internal organizational conditions are increasingly reflected in implementation frameworks, but nuanced explanations of how organizations' external environments influence implementation success are lacking in implementation research. Organizational theories offer implementation researchers a host of existing, highly relevant, and heretofore largely untapped explanations of the complex interaction between organizations and their environment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of organizational theories for implementation research. We applied four well-known organizational theories (institutional theory, transaction cost economics, contingency theories, and resource dependency theory) to published descriptions of efforts to implement SafeCare, an evidence-based practice for preventing child abuse and neglect. Transaction cost economics theory explained how frequent, uncertain processes for contracting for SafeCare may have generated inefficiencies and thus compromised implementation among private child welfare organizations. Institutional theory explained how child welfare systems may have been motivated to implement SafeCare because doing so aligned with expectations of key stakeholders within child welfare systems' professional communities. Contingency theories explained how efforts such as interagency collaborative teams promoted SafeCare implementation by facilitating adaptation to child welfare agencies' internal and external contexts. Resource dependency theory (RDT) explained how interagency relationships, supported by contracts, memoranda of understanding, and negotiations, facilitated SafeCare implementation by balancing autonomy and dependence on funding agencies and SafeCare developers. In addition to the retrospective application of organizational theories demonstrated above, we advocate for the proactive use of organizational theories to design implementation research. For example, implementation strategies should be selected to minimize transaction costs, promote and maintain congruence between organizations' dynamic internal and external contexts over time, and simultaneously attend to organizations' financial needs while preserving their autonomy. We describe implications of applying organizational theory in implementation research for implementation strategies, the evaluation of implementation efforts, measurement, research design, theory, and practice. We also offer guidance to implementation researchers for applying organizational theory.

Implementation of a Quality Improvement Process Aimed to Deliver Higher-Value Physical Therapy for Patients With Low Back Pain: Case Report.

PubMed

Karlen, Emily; McCathie, Becky

2015-12-01

The current state of health care demands higher-value care. Due to many barriers, clinicians routinely do not implement evidence-based care even though it is known to improve quality and reduce cost of care. The purpose of this case report is to describe a theory-based, multitactic implementation of a quality improvement process aimed to deliver higher-value physical therapy for patients with low back pain. Patients were treated from January 2010 through December 2014 in 1 of 32 outpatient physical therapy clinics within an academic health care system. Data were examined from 47,755 patients (mean age=50.3 years) entering outpatient physical therapy for management of nonspecific low back pain, with or without radicular pain. Development and implementation tactics were constructed from adult learning and change management theory to enhance adherence to best practice care among 130 physical therapists. A quality improvement team implemented 4 tactics: establish care delivery expectations, facilitate peer-led clinical and operational teams, foster a learning environment focused on meeting a population's needs, and continuously collect and analyze outcomes data. Physical therapy utilization and change in functional disability were measured to assess relative cost and quality of care. Secondarily, charge data assessed change in physical therapists' application of evidence-based care. Implementation of a quality improvement process was measured by year-over-year improved clinical outcomes, decreased utilization, and increased adherence to evidence-based physical therapy, which was associated with higher-value care. When adult learning and change management theory are combined in quality improvement efforts, common barriers to implementing evidence-based care can be overcome, creating an environment supportive of delivering higher-value physical therapy for patients with low back pain. © 2015 American Physical Therapy Association.

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

2016-01-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Decision and cost-utility analyses of surgical versus transcatheter closure of patent ductus arteriosus: should you let a smile be your umbrella?

PubMed

Gray, D T; Weinstein, M C

1998-01-01

Decision and cost-utility analyses considered the tradeoffs of treating patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) using conventional surgery versus transcatheter implantation of the Rashkind occluder. Physicians and informed lay parents assigned utility scores to procedure success/complications combinations seen in prognostically similar pediatric patients with isolated PDA treated from 1982 to 1987. Utility scores multiplied by outcome frequencies from a comparative study generated expected utility values for the two approaches. Cost-utility analyses combined these results with simulated provider cost estimates from 1989. On a 0-100 scale (worst to best observed outcome), the median expected utility for surgery was 99.96, versus 98.88 for the occluder. Results of most sensitivity analyses also slightly favored surgery. Expected utility differences based on 1987 data were minimal. With a mean overall simulated cost of $8,838 vs $12,466 for the occluder, surgery was favored in most cost-utility analyses. Use of the inherently less invasive but less successful, more risky, and more costly occluder approach conferred no apparent net advantage in this study. Analyses of comparable current data would be informative.

Coping with domestic violence: control attributions, dysphoria, and hopelessness.

PubMed

Clements, C M; Sawhney, D K

2000-04-01

We investigated the influence of control judgments and coping style on emotional reactions to domestic violence utilizing the framework of hopelessness theory. We assessed abuse severity, control attributions, coping, dysphoric symptoms, and hopelessness in 70 battered women recruited from 12 domestic violence agencies. Respondents reported dysphoria but not hopelessness. Increased reports of dysphoria were associated with higher levels of self-blame and avoidance coping and lower levels of problem-focused coping. Increased problem-focused coping was associated with decreased hopelessness. Perceived control over current abuse was not related to dysphoria. High expectations for control over future events were associated with decreased dysphoria. We discuss our results in terms of their application to attributional accounts of emotional reactions to battering.

Acting Irrationally to Improve Performance in Stochastic Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belavkin, Roman V.

Despite many theories and algorithms for decision-making, after estimating the utility function the choice is usually made by maximising its expected value (the max EU principle). This traditional and 'rational' conclusion of the decision-making process is compared in this paper with several 'irrational' techniques that make choice in Monte-Carlo fashion. The comparison is made by evaluating the performance of simple decision-theoretic agents in stochastic environments. It is shown that not only the random choice strategies can achieve performance comparable to the max EU method, but under certain conditions the Monte-Carlo choice methods perform almost two times better than the max EU. The paper concludes by quoting evidence from recent cognitive modelling works as well as the famous decision-making paradoxes.

Utilities of gossip across organizational levels : Multilevel selection, free-riders, and teams.

PubMed

Kniffin, Kevin M; Wilson, David Sloan

2005-09-01

Gossip is a subject that has been studied by researchers from an array of disciplines with various foci and methods. We measured the content of language use by members of a competitive sports team across 18 months, integrating qualitative ethnographic methods with quantitative sampling and analysis. We hypothesized that the use of gossip will vary significantly depending on whether it is used for self-serving or group-serving purposes. Our results support a model of gossip derived from multilevel selection theory that expects gossip to serve group-beneficial rules when rewards are partitioned at the group level on a scale that permits mutual monitoring. We integrate our case study with earlier studies of gossip conducted by anthropologists, psychologists, and management researchers.

Preface: High-rate GNSS: Theory, methods and engineering/geophysical applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Peiliang

2017-06-01

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have revolutionized the science and engineering of positioning, timing and navigation and have become an indispensable means to rapidly obtain precise positioning-related information, profoundly affecting our daily life and infrastructure. With GNSS, the position of an object, either stationary or moving, can be determined anywhere, anytime and under any weather condition. In addition to providing a positioning and timing information service, GNSS are now also used to reconstruct physical properties of media through which GNSS signals travel. The utilization of additional GNSS systems such as the European Galileo and the Chinese Beidou (both expected to complete their final global constellations in 2020) will contribute to positioning/navigation science and engineering, provide more industrial opportunities and surely open more challenges.

A note on effects of rational bubble on portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chan; Nie, Pu-yan

2018-02-01

In general, demand increases in wealth and decreases in price in microeconomics. We thereby propose a completely different perspective. By establishing expected utility function of investors, this article introduces one rational bubble asset and one bubble free asset in portfolios and focuses on the effects of bubble on investment portfolios from wealth and price perspectives. All conclusions are obtained by theoretical analysis with microeconomics theory. We argue that inferior goods and Giffen behavior can occur for the bubble free asset in microeconomic fields. The results can help investors to recognize bubble assets and bubble free assets more scientifically. Both bubble and bubble free assets can be inferior goods under some conditions, so we cannot to say which asset better than the other one absolutely.

Neuroeconomics: cross-currents in research on decision-making.

PubMed

Sanfey, Alan G; Loewenstein, George; McClure, Samuel M; Cohen, Jonathan D

2006-03-01

Despite substantial advances, the question of how we make decisions and judgments continues to pose important challenges for scientific research. Historically, different disciplines have approached this problem using different techniques and assumptions, with few unifying efforts made. However, the field of neuroeconomics has recently emerged as an inter-disciplinary effort to bridge this gap. Research in neuroscience and psychology has begun to investigate neural bases of decision predictability and value, central parameters in the economic theory of expected utility. Economics, in turn, is being increasingly influenced by a multiple-systems approach to decision-making, a perspective strongly rooted in psychology and neuroscience. The integration of these disparate theoretical approaches and methodologies offers exciting potential for the construction of more accurate models of decision-making.

Decision making in the short and long run: repeated gambles and rationality.

PubMed

Aloysius, John A

2007-05-01

Experimental evidence indicates that decision makers who reject a single play of a gamble may accept repeated plays of that gamble. The rationality of this pattern of preference has been investigated beginning with Samuelson's colleague (SC) who gained notoriety in a well-known paper. SC's pattern of preference is commonly viewed as a behavioural anomaly. Researchers from branches of psychology and economics have analysed the choice and, despite much debate, there remains considerable confusion. An axiomatic analysis of SC's choice has been used to motivate experimental studies in several disciplines. This paper identifies the axiomatic violation as that of an assumed rather than a normative condition. Therefore, contrary to popular belief, SC's choice is consistent with expected utility theory.

An Empirical Comparison of Three Theories of Nonverbal Immediacy Exchange.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersen, Peter A.; Guerrero, Laura K.; Jorgensen, Peter F.; Buller, David B.

1998-01-01

Provides a contrastive test of three immediacy-exchange theories: expectancy violations theory; discrepancy arousal theory; and cognitive valence theory. States findings from opposite-sex friend dyads (one of whom was an undergraduate student) failed to find unequivocal support for a single theory. Suggests existing immediacy-exchange theories…

Theory of "Trust" in the Focus of Expectation Study Concerning Educational Space Key Actors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogach, Olga V.; Frolova, Elena V.; Ryabova, Tatyana M.

2018-01-01

The article presents the results of the study, illustrating the expectations and the persistent stereotypes about the parent and the pedagogical community, which reduce the possibility of confidential interaction development in the sphere of education. The conceptual provisions of "confidence" theory by P. Sztompka, in which trust is…

Volunteering for Job Enrichment: A Test of Expectancy Theory Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giles, William F.

1977-01-01

In order to test predictions derived from an expectancy theory model developed by E. E. Lawler, measures of higher-order need satisfaction, locus of control, and intrinsic motivation were obtained from 252 female assembly line workers. Implications of the results for placement of individuals in enriched jobs are discussed. (Editor/RK)

Beliefs about willpower moderate the effect of previous day demands on next day’s expectations and effective goal striving

PubMed Central

Bernecker, Katharina; Job, Veronika

2015-01-01

Research suggests that beliefs about willpower affect self-regulation following previous self-regulatory demands (Job et al., 2010). Some people believe that their willpower is limited, meaning that after a demanding task it needs to be replenished (limited theory). By contrast, others believe that willpower is not limited and that previous self-control tasks even activate willpower (non-limited theory). We hypothesized that when people experience a demanding day their beliefs about willpower predict their expected capacity to self-regulate and their actual self-regulation on the following day. In a daily diary study (N = 157), we measured students’ daily level of demands, their expected performance in unpleasant tasks, and their effective goal striving. Results showed that following a demanding day, students with a non-limited theory had higher expectations about their progress in unpleasant tasks and were striving more efficiently for their goals than students with a limited theory. These findings suggest that beliefs about willpower affect whether demands experienced on a previous day have positive or negative consequences on people’s self-regulation. PMID:26528198

Toward {U}(N|M) knot invariant from ABJM theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eynard, Bertrand; Kimura, Taro

2017-06-01

We study {U}(N|M) character expectation value with the supermatrix Chern-Simons theory, known as the ABJM matrix model, with emphasis on its connection to the knot invariant. This average just gives the half-BPS circular Wilson loop expectation value in ABJM theory, which shall correspond to the unknot invariant. We derive the determinantal formula, which gives {U}(N|M) character expectation values in terms of {U}(1|1) averages for a particular type of character representations. This means that the {U}(1|1) character expectation value is a building block for the {U}(N|M) averages and also, by an appropriate limit, for the {U}(N) invariants. In addition to the original model, we introduce another supermatrix model obtained through the symplectic transform, which is motivated by the torus knot Chern-Simons matrix model. We obtain the Rosso-Jones-type formula and the spectral curve for this case.

Motivation: An Updated Analysis. IDEA Paper #59

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Svinicki, Marilla D.

2016-01-01

Because instructors are very concerned about how to motivate their students, this paper describes some of the most prominent and practically relevant contemporary theories of motivation, specifically expectancy value theory, goal orientation theory, and self-determination theory. After describing each theory and its basic components, suggestions…

A Preliminary Application of Social Cognitive Theory to Nonsuicidal Self-Injury.

PubMed

Hasking, Penelope; Rose, Alyssa

2016-08-01

Researchers have established a relationship between exposure to nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI), and increased probability of engaging in the behavior, but few have endeavored to explain the mechanisms underlying the relationship. We drew on Social Cognitive Theory to argue that core cognitions, including NSSI outcome expectancies and self-efficacy expectancies, moderate this relationship. We also explored whether knowledge about NSSI and attitudes toward the behavior played a role in this relationship. A sample of 389 university students (73.1 % female, M age = 20.90, SD = 2.36), completed online questionnaires assessing the constructs of interest. Our findings support the application of Social Cognitive Theory to better understanding NSSI, with clear links between expectancies, self-efficacy and NSSI. Further, these cognitions moderated a number of exposure-NSSI relationships. Implications of these findings for theory, research and intervention are discussed.

Gender-related academic and occupational interests and goals.

PubMed

Petersen, Jennifer; Hyde, Janet Shibley

2014-01-01

This chapter reviews the theories and empirical evidence concerning whether gender differences in academic and occupational goals and interests exist, and if so, why those differences may be present. Expectancy-value theory, stereotype threat, sociocultural theory, and the gender similarities hypothesis lay the theoretical framework for this chapter. Following a brief review of these theories, we describe the evidence for gender differences in academic ability and occupational interests and goals, using meta-analytic reviews wherever possible. Although there are few gender differences in academic ability, some gender differences in occupational goals and interests persist, particularly in science and mathematics. These gender differences may be due to parental or cultural expectations, changes in developmental trends, stereotypes and discrimination, or gendered-expectations to achieve work-family balance. Overall, the pathways to adult occupations are complex, involving many factors that affect occupational goals, interests, and self-concept.

The nature of the evolution of galaxies by mergers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterjee, Tapan K.

1993-01-01

The merger theory for the formation of elliptical galaxies is examined by conducting a dynamical study of the expected frequency of merging galaxies on the basis of the collisional theory, using galaxy models without halos. The expected merger rates obtained on the basis of the collisional theory fall about a magnitude below the observational value in the present epoch. In the light of current observational evidence and the results obtained, a marked regularity in the formation of ellipticals is indicated, followed by secular evolution by mergers.

HARNESSING VALUES TO PROMOTE MOTIVATION IN EDUCATION.

PubMed

Harackiewicz, Judith M; Tibbetts, Yoi; Canning, Elizabeth; Hyde, Janet S

2014-01-01

We review the interventions that promote motivation in academic contexts, with a focus on two primary questions: How can we motivate students to take more STEM courses? Once in those STEM courses, how can we keep students motivated and promote their academic achievement? We have approached these two motivational questions from several perspectives, examining the theoretical issues with basic laboratory research, conducting longitudinal questionnaire studies in classrooms, and developing interventions implemented in different STEM contexts. Our research is grounded in three theories that we believe are complementary: expectancy-value theory (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002), interest theory (Hidi & Renninger, 2006), and self-affirmation theory (Steele, 1988). As social psychologists, we have focused on motivational theory and used experimental methods, with an emphasis on values - students' perceptions of the value of academic tasks and students' personal values that shape their experiences in academic contexts. We review the experimental field studies in high-school science and college psychology classes, in which utility-value interventions promoted interest and performance for high-school students in science classes and for undergraduate students in psychology courses. We also review a randomized intervention in which parents received information about the utility value of math and science for their teens in high school; this intervention led students to take nearly one semester more of science and mathematics, compared with the control group. Finally, we review an experimental study of values affirmation in a college biology course and found that the intervention improved performance and retention for first-generation college students, closing the social-class achievement gap by 50%. We conclude by discussing the mechanisms through which these interventions work. These interventions are exciting for their broad applicability in improving students' academic choices and performance, they are also exciting regarding their potential for contributions to basic science. The combination of laboratory experiments and field experiments is advancing our understanding of the motivational principles and almost certainly will continue to do so. At the same time, interventions may benefit from becoming increasingly targeted at specific motivational processes that are effective with particular groups or in particular contexts.

HARNESSING VALUES TO PROMOTE MOTIVATION IN EDUCATION

PubMed Central

Harackiewicz, Judith M.; Tibbetts, Yoi; Canning, Elizabeth; Hyde, Janet S.

2017-01-01

Purpose We review the interventions that promote motivation in academic contexts, with a focus on two primary questions: How can we motivate students to take more STEM courses? Once in those STEM courses, how can we keep students motivated and promote their academic achievement? Design/methodology/approach We have approached these two motivational questions from several perspectives, examining the theoretical issues with basic laboratory research, conducting longitudinal questionnaire studies in classrooms, and developing interventions implemented in different STEM contexts. Our research is grounded in three theories that we believe are complementary: expectancy-value theory (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002), interest theory (Hidi & Renninger, 2006), and self-affirmation theory (Steele, 1988). As social psychologists, we have focused on motivational theory and used experimental methods, with an emphasis on values – students’ perceptions of the value of academic tasks and students’ personal values that shape their experiences in academic contexts. Findings We review the experimental field studies in high-school science and college psychology classes, in which utility-value interventions promoted interest and performance for high-school students in science classes and for undergraduate students in psychology courses. We also review a randomized intervention in which parents received information about the utility value of math and science for their teens in high school; this intervention led students to take nearly one semester more of science and mathematics, compared with the control group. Finally, we review an experimental study of values affirmation in a college biology course and found that the intervention improved performance and retention for first-generation college students, closing the social-class achievement gap by 50%. We conclude by discussing the mechanisms through which these interventions work. Originality/value These interventions are exciting for their broad applicability in improving students’ academic choices and performance, they are also exciting regarding their potential for contributions to basic science. The combination of laboratory experiments and field experiments is advancing our understanding of the motivational principles and almost certainly will continue to do so. At the same time, interventions may benefit from becoming increasingly targeted at specific motivational processes that are effective with particular groups or in particular contexts. PMID:28890603

Expectancy-value theory in persistence of learning effects in schizophrenia: role of task value and perceived competency.

PubMed

Choi, Jimmy; Fiszdon, Joanna M; Medalia, Alice

2010-09-01

Expectancy-value theory, a widely accepted model of motivation, posits that expectations of success on a learning task and the individual value placed on the task are central determinants of motivation to learn. This is supported by research in healthy controls suggesting that beliefs of self-and-content mastery can be so influential they can predict the degree of improvement on challenging cognitive tasks even more so than general cognitive ability. We examined components of expectancy-value theory (perceived competency and task value), along with baseline arithmetic performance and neuropsychological performance, as possible predictors of learning outcome in a sample of 70 outpatients with schizophrenia randomized to 1 of 2 different arithmetic learning conditions and followed up after 3 months. Results indicated that as with nonpsychiatric samples, perceived self-competency for the learning task was significantly related to perceptions of task value attributed to the learning task. Baseline expectations of success predicted persistence of learning on the task at 3-month follow-up, even after accounting for variance attributable to different arithmetic instruction, baseline arithmetic ability, attention, and self-reports of task interest and task value. We also found that expectation of success is a malleable construct, with posttraining improvements persisting at follow-up. These findings support the notion that expectancy-value theory is operative in schizophrenia. Thus, similar to the nonpsychiatric population, treatment benefits may be enhanced and better maintained if remediation programs also focus on perceptions of self-competency for the training tasks. Treatment issues related to instilling self-efficacy in cognitive recovery programs are discussed.

The Significance of Sexuality and Intimacy in the Lives of Older African Americans With HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Nevedal, Andrea; Sankar, Andrea

2016-08-01

Aging and HIV/AIDS research focuses primarily on standardized clinical, social, and behavioral measures, leaving unanswered questions about how this chronic and stigmatizing condition affects life course expectations and the meaning of aging with the disease. Utilizing Gaylene Becker's (1997) life course disruption theory, we explored older African Americans' experiences of living with HIV/AIDS. A purposive sample (N = 43) of seropositive African Americans aged 50 and older was selected from a parent study. Thirteen participants completed one semi-structured in-depth interview on life course expectations and experiences of living with HIV/AIDS. Interview transcripts were analyzed using standard qualitative coding and thematic analysis. Responding to broad, open-ended questions about the impact of HIV on life course expectations, participants emphasized how HIV limited their ability to experience sexuality and intimacy. Two major themes emerged, damaged sexuality and constrained intimacy. Older African Americans' discussions of living with HIV focused on the importance of and the challenges to sexuality and intimacy. Researchers and clinicians should be attentive to significant and ongoing HIV-related challenges to sexuality and intimacy facing older African Americans living with HIV/AIDS. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Primary care in the United States: practice-based innovations and factors that influence adoption.

PubMed

Goldberg, Debora Goetz

2012-01-01

This study aims to explore the use of specific innovations in primary care practices. The research seeks to examine whether a relationship exists between environmental factors and organizational characteristics and the level of innovation in primary care practices in Virginia. The study utilized multiple secondary data sets and an organizational survey of primary care practices to define the external environment and the level of innovation. Institutional theory was used to explain the connection between innovations in primary care practices and institutional forces within the environment. Resource dependency theory was used to explain motivators for change based on a dependence on scarce financial, human, and information resources. Results show a positive association between organizational size, organizational relationships, and stakeholder expectations on the level of innovation. A negative association was found between competition and the level of innovation. No relationship was found between degree of Medicare and managed care penetration and innovation, nor between knowledge of, and difficulty complying with, payer organization requirements and innovation. Primary care physician practices exist in a market-driven environment characterized by high pressure from regulatory sources, decreasing reimbursement levels, increasing rate of change in technologies, and increasing patient and community expectations. This study contributes new information on the relationship between organizational characteristics, the external environment and specific innovations in primary care practices. Information on the contributing factors to innovation in primary care is important for improving delivery of health care services and the ability of these practices to survive.

Operation Exodus: The Massacre of 44 Philippine Police Commandos In Mamasapano Clash

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

strategic thinking, utilizing Game Theory and Multi-Attribute Decision Making; the combination of these two dynamic tools is used to evaluate their...thinking, utilizing Game Theory and Multi-Attribute Decision Making; the combination of these two dynamic tools is used to evaluate their potential...35 A. GAME THEORETIC APPROACH ......................................................36 B. APPLYING GAME THEORY TO OPLAN: EXODUS

The Utility of Vulnerability and Social Capital Theories in Studying the Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Elderly

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durant, Thomas J., Jr.

2011-01-01

The definition of a disaster is followed by an explanation of vulnerability and social capital theories. The importance of using a sound theoretical framework and the utility and efficacy of vulnerability and social capital theories in studying the impact of natural disasters on the elderly population are emphasized and discussed. The conclusion…

SupportNet for Frontline Behavioral Health Providers

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-30

social -cognitive theory perspective ( Bandura , 1997), the proposed website and integrated treatment would enhance the perceived social environmental...Objective 2: We will evaluate the utility of social cognitive theory as a framework for understanding the stress process for military mental health...healthcare providers. SupportNet, based on the theoretical framework of social cognitive theory , utilizes web-based support system with coaching to

Factors that Motivate Business Faculty to Conduct Research: An Expectancy Theory Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Yining; Gupta, Ashok; Hoshower, Leon

2006-01-01

In this study, the authors used expectancy theory to examine key factors that motivate business faculty to conduct research. The survey results, from 320 faculty members at 10 business schools, showed that faculty members who assign higher importance ratings to both the extrinsic and the intrinsic rewards of research exhibit higher research…

Linking Affective Commitment, Career Self-Efficacy, and Outcome Expectations: A Test of Social Cognitive Career Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conklin, Amanda M.; Dahling, Jason J.; Garcia, Pablo A.

2013-01-01

The authors tested a model based on the satisfaction model of social cognitive career theory (SCCT) that links college students' affective commitment to their major (the emotional identification that students feel toward their area of study) with career decision self-efficacy (CDSE) and career outcome expectations. Results indicate that CDSE…

Impact of Expectancy-Value and Situational Interest Motivation Specificity on Physical Education Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ding, Haiyong; Sun, Haichun; Chen, Ang

2013-01-01

To be successful in learning, students need to be motivated to engage and learn. The domain-specificity motivation theory articulates that student motivation is often determined by the content being taught to them. The purpose of this study was to extend the theory by determining domain-specificity of situational interest and expectancy-value…

An Illustration of the Experimenter Expectancy Effect in School Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Michael; Briten, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

Two groups of year 6 pupils (age 10-11 years) each experienced science practical lessons that were essentially identical but for one difference: one group (theory-led) were told by the teacher what result they should expect, and the other group (hypothetico-deductive) were not. The theory-led group demonstrated experimental bias, recording results…

What Motivates Students to Provide Feedback to Teachers about Teaching and Learning? An Expectancy Theory Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caulfield, Jay

2007-01-01

The purpose of this empirical research study was to investigate what motivates students to provide formative anonymous feedback to teachers regarding their perceptions of the teaching and learning experience in order to improve student learning. Expectancy theory, specifically Vroom's Model, was used as the conceptual framework for the study.…

Using Expectancy-Value Theory to Explore Aspects of Motivation and Engagement in Inquiry-Based Learning in Primary Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

2017-01-01

Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and…

Adoption? Adaptation? Evaluating the Formation of Educational Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrew, Megan; Hauser, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Sociologists have long used educational expectations to understand the complex mental processes underlying individuals' educational decision making. Yet, little research evaluates how students actually formulate their educational expectations. Status attainment theory asserts that students adopt their educational expectations early based on family…

Facilitating progress in health behaviour theory development and modification: the reasoned action approach as a case study.

PubMed

Head, Katharine J; Noar, Seth M

2014-01-01

This paper explores the question: what are barriers to health behaviour theory development and modification, and what potential solutions can be proposed? Using the reasoned action approach (RAA) as a case study, four areas of theory development were examined: (1) the theoretical domain of a theory; (2) tension between generalisability and utility, (3) criteria for adding/removing variables in a theory, and (4) organisational tracking of theoretical developments and formal changes to theory. Based on a discussion of these four issues, recommendations for theory development are presented, including: (1) the theoretical domain for theories such as RAA should be clarified; (2) when there is tension between generalisability and utility, utility should be given preference given the applied nature of the health behaviour field; (3) variables should be formally removed/amended/added to a theory based on their performance across multiple studies and (4) organisations and researchers with a stake in particular health areas may be best suited for tracking the literature on behaviour-specific theories and making refinements to theory, based on a consensus approach. Overall, enhancing research in this area can provide important insights for more accurately understanding health behaviours and thus producing work that leads to more effective health behaviour change interventions.

The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices without Trade-Offs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brandstatter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2006-01-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic…

Wilson loops in supersymmetric gauge theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pestun, Vasily

This thesis is devoted to several exact computations in four-dimensional supersymmetric gauge field theories. In the first part of the thesis we prove conjecture due to Erickson-Semenoff-Zarembo and Drukker-Gross which relates supersymmetric circular Wilson loop operators in the N = 4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory with a Gaussian matrix model. We also compute the partition function and give a new matrix model formula for the expectation value of a supersymmetric circular Wilson loop operator for the pure N = 2 and the N* = 2 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory on a four-sphere. Circular supersymmetric Wilson loops in four-dimensional N = 2 superconformal gauge theory are treated similarly. In the second part we consider supersymmetric Wilson loops of arbitrary shape restricted to a two-dimensional sphere in the four-dimensional N = 4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory. We show that expectation value for these Wilson loops can be exactly computed using a two-dimensional theory closely related to the topological two-dimensional Higgs-Yang-Mills theory, or two-dimensional Yang-Mills theory for the complexified gauge group.

Implicit theories of body weight: entity beliefs can weigh you down.

PubMed

Burnette, Jeni L

2010-03-01

The current research extended the implicit theory approach to a weight management context and merged it with value expectancy theory. Three studies investigated the hypothesis that individuals are especially unlikely to self-regulate effectively after dieting setbacks when they believe body weight to be fixed (entity theory) rather than malleable (incremental theory). Study 1 examined avoidant coping after a hypothetical dieting setback. Study 2 examined the implicit theory-avoidant coping relation after naturally occurring challenges to participants' weight-loss goals. Across both studies, entity theorists, relative to incremental theorists, reported more avoidant coping after setbacks. In Study 2, avoidant coping, in turn, predicted difficulty achieving weight-loss success. Study 3 manipulated implicit theories of weight to test the causal effects of implicit theories on effortful regulation. Entity theorists, relative to incremental theorists, reported less persistence following setbacks. Across the three studies, expectations about the potential for future dieting success mediated the link between implicit theory and self-regulation.

Longitudinal comparative evaluation of the equivalence of an integrated peer-support and clinical staffing model for residential mental health rehabilitation: a mixed methods protocol incorporating multiple stakeholder perspectives.

PubMed

Parker, Stephen; Dark, Frances; Newman, Ellie; Korman, Nicole; Meurk, Carla; Siskind, Dan; Harris, Meredith

2016-06-02

A novel staffing model integrating peer support workers and clinical staff within a unified team is being trialled at community based residential rehabilitation units in Australia. A mixed-methods protocol for the longitudinal evaluation of the outcomes, expectations and experiences of care by consumers and staff under this staffing model in two units will be compared to one unit operating a traditional clinical staffing. The study is unique with regards to the context, the longitudinal approach and consideration of multiple stakeholder perspectives. The longitudinal mixed methods design integrates a quantitative evaluation of the outcomes of care for consumers at three residential rehabilitation units with an applied qualitative research methodology. The quantitative component utilizes a prospective cohort design to explore whether equivalent outcomes are achieved through engagement at residential rehabilitation units operating integrated and clinical staffing models. Comparative data will be available from the time of admission, discharge and 12-month period post-discharge from the units. Additionally, retrospective data for the 12-month period prior to admission will be utilized to consider changes in functioning pre and post engagement with residential rehabilitation care. The primary outcome will be change in psychosocial functioning, assessed using the total score on the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS). Planned secondary outcomes will include changes in symptomatology, disability, recovery orientation, carer quality of life, emergency department presentations, psychiatric inpatient bed days, and psychological distress and wellbeing. Planned analyses will include: cohort description; hierarchical linear regression modelling of the predictors of change in HoNOS following CCU care; and descriptive comparisons of the costs associated with the two staffing models. The qualitative component utilizes a pragmatic approach to grounded theory, with collection of data from consumers and staff at multiple time points exploring their expectations, experiences and reflections on the care provided by these services. It is expected that the new knowledge gained through this study will guide the adaptation of these and similar services. For example, if differential outcomes are achieved for consumers under the integrated and clinical staffing models this may inform staffing guidelines.

A general theory of intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time.

PubMed

Namboodiri, Vijay M K; Mihalas, Stefan; Marton, Tanya M; Hussain Shuler, Marshall G

2014-01-01

Animals and humans make decisions based on their expected outcomes. Since relevant outcomes are often delayed, perceiving delays and choosing between earlier vs. later rewards (intertemporal decision-making) is an essential component of animal behavior. The myriad observations made in experiments studying intertemporal decision-making and time perception have not yet been rationalized within a single theory. Here we present a theory-Training-Integrated Maximized Estimation of Reinforcement Rate (TIMERR)-that explains a wide variety of behavioral observations made in intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time. Our theory postulates that animals make intertemporal choices to optimize expected reward rates over a limited temporal window which includes a past integration interval-over which experienced reward rate is estimated-as well as the expected delay to future reward. Using this theory, we derive mathematical expressions for both the subjective value of a delayed reward and the subjective representation of the delay. A unique contribution of our work is in finding that the past integration interval directly determines the steepness of temporal discounting and the non-linearity of time perception. In so doing, our theory provides a single framework to understand both intertemporal decision-making and time perception.

The Application of Motivational Theories to Business and Industry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clements, Paul; Farrar, Lochia A.

This workshop, designed to use motivational theories in understanding work behaviors and to increase job satisfaction and performance, deals with cognitive theories in motivation, need theories, and the Equity Theory within the Expectancy Valence Model. Counseling technique areas of communication skills and rational thinking that facilitate the…

Design 2000: Theory-Based Design Models of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richey, Rita C.

The influence of theory on instructional-design models of the future is explored on the basis of the theoretical developments of today. Anticipated model changes are expected to result from disparate theoretical thinking in areas such as chaos theory, constructivism, situated learning, cognitive-learning theory, and general systems theory.…

Interpersonal Relationships, Motivation, Engagement, and Achievement: Yields for Theory, Current Issues, and Educational Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Andrew J.; Dowson, Martin

2009-01-01

In this review, we scope the role of interpersonal relationships in students' academic motivation, engagement, and achievement. We argue that achievement motivation theory, current issues, and educational practice can be conceptualized in relational terms. Influential theorizing, including attribution theory, expectancy-value theory, goal theory,…

Processing Semblances Induced through Inter-Postsynaptic Functional LINKs, Presumed Biological Parallels of K-Lines Proposed for Building Artificial Intelligence

PubMed Central

Vadakkan, Kunjumon I.

2011-01-01

The internal sensation of memory, which is available only to the owner of an individual nervous system, is difficult to analyze for its basic elements of operation. We hypothesize that associative learning induces the formation of functional LINK between the postsynapses. During memory retrieval, the activation of either postsynapse re-activates the functional LINK evoking a semblance of sensory activity arriving at its opposite postsynapse, nature of which defines the basic unit of internal sensation – namely, the semblion. In neuronal networks that undergo continuous oscillatory activity at certain levels of their organization re-activation of functional LINKs is expected to induce semblions, enabling the system to continuously learn, self-organize, and demonstrate instantiation, features that can be utilized for developing artificial intelligence (AI). This paper also explains suitability of the inter-postsynaptic functional LINKs to meet the expectations of Minsky’s K-lines, basic elements of a memory theory generated to develop AI and methods to replicate semblances outside the nervous system. PMID:21845180

Distributed Time-Varying Formation Robust Tracking for General Linear Multiagent Systems With Parameter Uncertainties and External Disturbances.

PubMed

Hua, Yongzhao; Dong, Xiwang; Li, Qingdong; Ren, Zhang

2017-05-18

This paper investigates the time-varying formation robust tracking problems for high-order linear multiagent systems with a leader of unknown control input in the presence of heterogeneous parameter uncertainties and external disturbances. The followers need to accomplish an expected time-varying formation in the state space and track the state trajectory produced by the leader simultaneously. First, a time-varying formation robust tracking protocol with a totally distributed form is proposed utilizing the neighborhood state information. With the adaptive updating mechanism, neither any global knowledge about the communication topology nor the upper bounds of the parameter uncertainties, external disturbances and leader's unknown input are required in the proposed protocol. Then, in order to determine the control parameters, an algorithm with four steps is presented, where feasible conditions for the followers to accomplish the expected time-varying formation tracking are provided. Furthermore, based on the Lyapunov-like analysis theory, it is proved that the formation tracking error can converge to zero asymptotically. Finally, the effectiveness of the theoretical results is verified by simulation examples.

A Case Study on the Failure of Management Controls around Expected Benefit Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parsons, Earl H.

2013-01-01

Organization leaders manage change through projects to realize specific expected benefits. Under Expectation-Confirmation theory, expected benefits can be used to judge the ongoing viability and final success of the project. Organization leaders often develop management controls to ensure that the expected benefits are defined to allow their use…

Relative Pricing of Publicly Traded U.S. Electric Utility Companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewczyn, Nicholas Stephen

In the financial turmoil of 2008, U.S. firms reported debt-ratios that differed from the debt-ratios calculated from balance sheets. The problem is that investors bought common stock expecting initial investment return and lost money when companies delisted. The purpose of this quantitative study was to determine sample securities pricing with the application of synthetic assets and debt accrued. Addressed in the research questions was whether those securities were (a) underpriced compared with return-on-assets (ROA), (b) overpriced compared with ROA, (c) a debt-ratio higher than 60% and also overpriced, (d) underpriced with a synthetic asset added, or (e) related by relative pricing to variant pricing and market capitalization. The study's base theory was Pan's efficient market hypothesis (EMH) of security price prediction of market prices versus model prices. The data from the financial statements of 16 publicly traded U.S. electric utility companies were analyzed via correlations and multiple regression analyses to determine securities pricing and suitability. The findings from the analyses of the sample's variables of market price, book value, market-to-book, and study constructed variables from those variable data were statistically significant. The alternate hypotheses were accepted for all 5 research questions since the analytical operationalization of the hypothetical constructs led to significant relationships. Results suggest that the use of more pricing determinants in securities evaluation may lead to investors losing less money and earning the expected returns for a more efficient capital market, leading to a stronger economy and macroeconomic stability.

The Futile Search for a Theory of Learning Disabilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blachman, Benita A.

1988-01-01

In response to a previous article, the paper suggests it is unrealistic to expect one theory or even multiple theories within one paradigm to explain learning disabilities. The emphasis on reaching a consensus regarding theory or paradigm is seen as unproductive. (DB)

Persistence: A Key Factor in Human Performance at Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blair, Daniel V.; Price, Donna J.

1998-01-01

Reviews the construct of persistence as it relates to achievement motivation at work. Topics include foundational concepts of persistence; achievement motivation theory; a human motivation model; goal-setting theory; self-efficacy theory; expectancy theory; task assignments; confidence; and perceived value. (LRW)

Pipette-surface interaction: current enhancement and intrinsic force.

PubMed

Clarke, Richard W; Zhukov, Alexander; Richards, Owen; Johnson, Nicholas; Ostanin, Victor; Klenerman, David

2013-01-09

There is an intrinsic repulsion between glass and cell surfaces that allows noninvasive scanning ion conductance microscopy (SICM) of cells and which must be overcome in order to form the gigaseals used for patch clamping investigations of ion channels. However, the interactions of surfaces in physiological solutions of electrolytes, including the presence of this repulsion, for example, do not obviously agree with the standard Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) colloid theory accurate at much lower salt concentrations. In this paper we investigate the interactions of glass nanopipettes in this high-salt regime with a variety of surfaces and propose a way to resolve DLVO theory with the results. We demonstrate the utility of this understanding to SICM by topographically mapping a live cell's cytoskeleton. We also report an interesting effect whereby the ion current though a nanopipette can increase under certain conditions upon approaching an insulating surface, rather than decreasing as would be expected. We propose that this is due to electroosmotic flow separation, a high-salt electrokinetic effect. Overall these experiments yield key insights into the fundamental interactions that take place between surfaces in strong solutions of electrolytes.

Social Orientation: Problem Behavior and Motivations Toward Interpersonal Problem Solving Among High Risk Adolescents

PubMed Central

Kuperminc, Gabriel P.; Allen, Joseph P.

2006-01-01

A model of problematic adolescent behavior that expands current theories of social skill deficits in delinquent behavior to consider both social skills and orientation toward the use of adaptive skills was examined in an ethnically and socioeconomically diverse sample of 113 male and female adolescents. Adolescents were selected on the basis of moderate to serious risk for difficulties in social adaptation in order to focus on the population of youth most likely to be targeted by prevention efforts. Structural equation modeling was used to examine cross-sectional data using multiple informants (adolescents, peers, and parents) and multiple methods (performance test and self-report). Adolescent social orientation, as reflected in perceived problem solving effectiveness, identification with adult prosocial values, and self-efficacy expectations, exhibited a direct association to delinquent behavior and an indirect association to drug involvement mediated by demonstrated success in using problem solving skills. Results suggest that the utility of social skill theories of adolescent problem behaviors for informing preventive and remedial interventions can be enhanced by expanding them to consider adolescents’ orientation toward using the skills they may already possess. PMID:16929380

Towards laboratory detection of topological vortices in superfluid phases of QCD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Arpan; Dave, Shreyansh S.; de, Somnath; Srivastava, Ajit M.

2017-10-01

Topological defects arise in a variety of systems, e.g. vortices in superfluid helium to cosmic strings in the early universe. There is an indirect evidence of neutron superfluid vortices from the glitches in pulsars. One also expects that the topological defects may arise in various high baryon density phases of quantum chromodynamics (QCD), e.g. superfluid topological vortices in the color flavor locked (CFL) phase. Though vastly different in energy/length scales, there are universal features in the formation of all these defects. Utilizing this universality, we investigate the possibility of detecting these topological superfluid vortices in laboratory experiments, namely heavy-ion collisions (HICs). Using hydrodynamic simulations, we show that vortices can qualitatively affect the power spectrum of flow fluctuations. This can give an unambiguous signal for superfluid transition resulting in vortices, allowing for the check of defect formation theories in a relativistic quantum field theory system, and the detection of superfluid phases of QCD. Detection of nucleonic superfluid vortices in low energy HICs will give opportunity for laboratory controlled study of their properties, providing crucial inputs for the physics of pulsars.

Using social cognitive theory to explain discretionary, "leisure-time" physical exercise among high school students.

PubMed

Winters, Eric R; Petosa, Rick L; Charlton, Thomas E

2003-06-01

To examine whether knowledge of high school students' actions of self-regulation, and perceptions of self-efficacy to overcome exercise barriers, social situation, and outcome expectation will predict non-school related moderate and vigorous physical exercise. High school students enrolled in introductory Physical Education courses completed questionnaires that targeted selected Social Cognitive Theory variables. They also self-reported their typical "leisure-time" exercise participation using a standardized questionnaire. Bivariate correlation statistic and hierarchical regression were conducted on reports of moderate and vigorous exercise frequency. Each predictor variable was significantly associated with measures of moderate and vigorous exercise frequency. All predictor variables were significant in the final regression model used to explain vigorous exercise. After controlling for the effects of gender, the psychosocial variables explained 29% of variance in vigorous exercise frequency. Three of four predictor variables were significant in the final regression equation used to explain moderate exercise. The final regression equation accounted for 11% of variance in moderate exercise frequency. Professionals who attempt to increase the prevalence of physical exercise through educational methods should focus on the psychosocial variables utilized in this study.

Self-management improvement program combined with community involvement in Thai hypertensive population: an action research.

PubMed

Srichairattanakull, Jeamjai; Kaewpan, Wonpen; Powattana, Arpaporn; Pichayapinyo, Panan

2014-04-01

To investigate the effectiveness of a program that utilizes community involvement to improve the self-management strategies among people living with hypertension. Forty-four subjects, aged 35 to 59-year-old, with hypertension in Nakhon Pathom Province, Thailand, were randomly allocated to either an experimental group (n = 22) or a control group (n = 20). The experimental group attended a program to improve self-management methods based on social cognitive theory (SCT). The program lasted 12 weeks, consisted of 1 1/2 hours meeting once a week, including group meetings and home visit monitoring. Mann-Whitney U test and Friedman test were employed to analyze the program's effectiveness. After the program, the mean rank of the perceived self-efficacy for the self-management strategies was statistically different between the two groups (p = 0.023). In the experimental group, after the twelve week, the mean rank of perceived self-efficacy and outcome expectancy increased and diastolic blood pressure decreased after the eight week. The program applied social cognitive theory (SCT) to promote self-management techniques, increased the health promoting behavior among hypertensive people.

Theoretical and Experimental Investigation of the Subsonic-Flow Fields Beneath Swept and Unswept Wings with Tables of Vortex-Induced Velocities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alford, William J., Jr.

1956-01-01

The flow-field characteristics beneath swept and unswept wings as determined by potential-flow theory are compared with the experimentally determined flow fields beneath swept and unswept wing-fuselage combinations. The potential-flow theory utilized considered both spanwise and chordwise distributions of vorticity as well as the wing-thickness effects. The perturbation velocities induced by a unit horseshoe vortex are included in tabular form. The results indicated that significant chordwise flow gradients existed beneath both swept and unswept wings at zero lift and throughout the lift range. The theoretical predictions of the flow-field characteristics were qualitatively correct in all cases considered, although there were indications that the magnitudes of the downwash angles tended to be overpredicted as the tip of the swept wing was approached and that the sidewash angles ahead of the unswept wing were underpredicted. The calculated effects of compressibility indicated that significant increases in the chordwise variation of flow angles and dynamic-pressure ratios should be expected in going from low to high subsonic speeds.

Secondary Psychometric Examination of the Dimensional Obsessive-Compulsive Scale: Classical Testing, Item Response Theory, and Differential Item Functioning.

PubMed

Thibodeau, Michel A; Leonard, Rachel C; Abramowitz, Jonathan S; Riemann, Bradley C

2015-12-01

The Dimensional Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (DOCS) is a promising measure of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) symptoms but has received minimal psychometric attention. We evaluated the utility and reliability of DOCS scores. The study included 832 students and 300 patients with OCD. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the originally proposed four-factor structure. DOCS total and subscale scores exhibited good to excellent internal consistency in both samples (α = .82 to α = .96). Patient DOCS total scores reduced substantially during treatment (t = 16.01, d = 1.02). DOCS total scores discriminated between students and patients (sensitivity = 0.76, 1 - specificity = 0.23). The measure did not exhibit gender-based differential item functioning as tested by Mantel-Haenszel chi-square tests. Expected response options for each item were plotted as a function of item response theory and demonstrated that DOCS scores incrementally discriminate OCD symptoms ranging from low to extremely high severity. Incremental differences in DOCS scores appear to represent unbiased and reliable differences in true OCD symptom severity. © The Author(s) 2014.

Money, kisses, and electric shocks: on the affective psychology of risk.

PubMed

Rottenstreich, Y; Hsee, C K

2001-05-01

Prospect theory's S-shaped weighting function is often said to reflect the psychophysics of chance. We propose an affective rather than psychophysical deconstruction of the weighting function resting on two assumptions. First, preferences depend on the affective reactions associated with potential outcomes of a risky choice. Second, even with monetary values controlled, some outcomes are relatively affect-rich and others relatively affect-poor. Although the psychophysical and affective approaches are complementary, the affective approach has one novel implication: Weighting functions will be more S-shaped for lotteries involving affect-rich than affect-poor outcomes. That is, people will be more sensitive to departures from impossibility and certainty but less sensitive to intermediate probability variations for affect-rich outcomes. We corroborated this prediction by observing probability-outcome interactions: An affect-poor prize was preferred over an affect-rich prize under certainty, but the direction of preference reversed under low probability. We suggest that the assumption of probability-outcome independence, adopted by both expected-utility and prospect theory, may hold across outcomes of different monetary values, but not different affective values.

Explaining the Intention to Use Technology among Pre-Service Teachers: A Multi-Group Analysis of the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teo, Timothy; Noyes, Jan

2014-01-01

Pre-service teachers' self-reported intentions to use information technology were studied. Two hundred and sixty-four participants completed a survey questionnaire measuring their responses to four constructs (performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating conditions) derived from the Unified Theory of Acceptance and…

Expectancy Theory as a Predictor of Grade-Point Averages, Satisfaction, and Participation in the College Environment. ASHE 1983 Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lincoln, Yvonna S.; And Others

The ability of Vroom's expectancy motivation theory to predict student satisfaction with the college environment, student participation at school, and student academic performance was studied. Specific objectives of the study were as follows: to test the ability of Vroom's valence model to predict student satisfaction, to test the ability of…

Educational and Career Interests in Math: A Longitudinal Examination of the Links between Classroom Environment, Motivational Beliefs, and Interests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ming-Te

2012-01-01

Drawing on the expectancy-value model, stage-environment fit theory, and self-determination theory, this study examined the longitudinal associations between classroom characteristics, expectancies-values, high school course enrollment, and career aspirations in the domain of math. Data were collected on 3,048 youth who reported on their classroom…

Why Do Children Worry about Their Academic Achievement? An Expectancy-Value Perspective on Elementary Students' Worries about Their Mathematics and Reading Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauermann, Fani; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.; Pekrun, Reinhard

2017-01-01

Children's worrying about their academic performance has profound implications for their learning and wellbeing in school. Understanding the contextual and psychological antecedents of students' worry thus represents an important area of research. Drawing on Eccles and colleagues' expectancy-value theory and Pekrun's control-value theory and using…

Understanding the Relationship between Parental Education and STEM Course Taking through Identity-Based and Expectancy-Value Theories of Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Svoboda, Ryan C.; Rozek, Christopher S.; Hyde, Janet S.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.; Destin, Mesmin

2016-01-01

High school students from lower-socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds are less likely to enroll in advanced mathematics and science courses compared to students from higher-SES backgrounds. The current longitudinal study draws on identity-based and expectancy-value theories of motivation to explain the SES and mathematics and science…

Manage Your Life Online (MYLO): a pilot trial of a conversational computer-based intervention for problem solving in a student sample.

PubMed

Gaffney, Hannah; Mansell, Warren; Edwards, Rachel; Wright, Jason

2014-11-01

Computerized self-help that has an interactive, conversational format holds several advantages, such as flexibility across presenting problems and ease of use. We designed a new program called MYLO that utilizes the principles of METHOD of Levels (MOL) therapy--based upon Perceptual Control Theory (PCT). We tested the efficacy of MYLO, tested whether the psychological change mechanisms described by PCT mediated its efficacy, and evaluated effects of client expectancy. Forty-eight student participants were randomly assigned to MYLO or a comparison program ELIZA. Participants discussed a problem they were currently experiencing with their assigned program and completed measures of distress, resolution and expectancy preintervention, postintervention and at 2-week follow-up. MYLO and ELIZA were associated with reductions in distress, depression, anxiety and stress. MYLO was considered more helpful and led to greater problem resolution. The psychological change processes predicted higher ratings of MYLO's helpfulness and reductions in distress. Positive expectancies towards computer-based problem solving correlated with MYLO's perceived helpfulness and greater problem resolution, and this was partly mediated by the psychological change processes identified. The findings provide provisional support for the acceptability of the MYLO program in a non-clinical sample although its efficacy as an innovative computer-based aid to problem solving remains unclear. Nevertheless, the findings provide tentative early support for the mechanisms of psychological change identified within PCT and highlight the importance of client expectations on predicting engagement in computer-based self-help.

Normative Beliefs, Expectancies, and Alcohol-Related Problems among College Students; Implications for Theory and Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fearnow-Kenny, Melodie D.; Wyrick, David L.; Hansen, William B.; Dyreg, Doug; Beau, Dan B.

2001-01-01

Investigation (1) examined interrelations among normative beliefs, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol-related problems, and (2) investigated whether alcohol-related expectancies mediate associations between normative beliefs and alcohol-related problems. Analyses revealed that alcohol expectancies mediate the relationship between normative beliefs…

Morals Matter in Economic Games

PubMed Central

Brodbeck, Felix C.; Kugler, Katharina G.; Reif, Julia A. M.; Maier, Markus A.

2013-01-01

Contrary to predictions from Expected Utility Theory and Game Theory, when making economic decisions in interpersonal situations, people take the interest of others into account and express various forms of solidarity, even in one-shot interactions with anonymous strangers. Research in other-regarding behavior is dominated by behavioral economical and evolutionary biological approaches. Psychological theory building, which addresses mental processes underlying other-regarding behavior, is rare. Based on Relational Models Theory (RMT, [1]) and Relationship Regulation Theory (RRT, [2]) it is proposed that moral motives influence individuals’ decision behavior in interpersonal situations via conscious and unconscious (automatic) processes. To test our propositions we developed the ‘Dyadic Solidarity Game’ and its solitary equivalent, the ‘Self-Insurance Game’. Four experiments, in which the moral motives “Unity” and “Proportionality” were manipulated, support the propositions made. First, it was shown that consciously activated moral motives (via framing of the overall goal of the experiment) and unconsciously activated moral motives (via subliminal priming) influence other-regarding behavior. Second, this influence was only found in interpersonal, not in solitary situations. Third, by combining the analyses of the two experimental games the extent to which participants apply the Golden Rule (“treat others how you wish to be treated”) could be established. Individuals with a “Unity” motive treated others like themselves, whereas individuals with a “Proportionality” motive gave others less then they gave themselves. The four experiments not only support the assumption that morals matter in economic games, they also deliver new insights in how morals matter in economic decision making. PMID:24358115

Heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan general theory of mortality and aging.

PubMed

Zheng, Hui; Yang, Yang; Land, Kenneth C

2011-02-01

This study examines and further develops the classic Strehler-Mildvan (SM) general theory of mortality and aging. Three predictions from the SM theory are tested by examining the age dependence of mortality patterns for 42 countries (including developed and developing countries) over the period 1955-2003. By applying finite mixture regression models, principal component analysis, and random-effects panel regression models, we find that (1) the negative correlation between the initial adulthood mortality rate and the rate of increase in mortality with age derived in the SM theory exists but is not constant; (2) within the SM framework, the implied age of expected zero vitality (expected maximum survival age) also is variable over time; (3) longevity trajectories are not homogeneous among the countries; (4) Central American and Southeast Asian countries have higher expected age of zero vitality than other countries in spite of relatively disadvantageous national ecological systems; (5) within the group of Central American and Southeast Asian countries, a more disadvantageous national ecological system is associated with a higher expected age of zero vitality; and (6) larger agricultural and food productivities, higher labor participation rates, higher percentages of population living in urban areas, and larger GDP per capita and GDP per unit of energy use are important beneficial national ecological system factors that can promote survival. These findings indicate that the SM theory needs to be generalized to incorporate heterogeneity among human populations.

Is dissonance reduction a special case of fluid compensation? Evidence that dissonant cognitions cause compensatory affirmation and abstraction.

PubMed

Randles, Daniel; Inzlicht, Michael; Proulx, Travis; Tullett, Alexa M; Heine, Steven J

2015-05-01

Cognitive dissonance theory shares much in common with other perspectives that address anomalies, uncertainty, and general expectancy violations. This has led some theorists to argue that these theories represent overlapping psychological processes. If responding to dissonance and uncertainty occurs through a common psychological process, one should expect that the behavioral outcomes of feeling uncertain would also apply to feelings of dissonance, and vice versa. One specific prediction from the meaning maintenance model would be that cognitive dissonance, like other expectancy violations, should lead to the affirmation of unrelated beliefs, or the abstraction of unrelated schemas when the dissonant event cannot be easily accommodated. This article presents 4 studies (N = 1124) demonstrating that the classic induced-compliance dissonance paradigm can lead not only to a change of attitudes (dissonance reduction), but also to (a) an increased reported belief in God (Study 2), (b) a desire to punish norm-violators (Study 1 and 3), (c) a motivation to detect patterns amid noise (Study 3), and (d) polarizing support of public policies among those already biased toward a particular side (Study 4). These results are congruent with theories that propose content-general fluid compensation following the experience of anomaly, a finding not predicted by dissonance theory. The results suggest that dissonance reduction behaviors may share psychological processes described by other theories addressing violations of expectations. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Brain Network Theory Can Predict Whether Neuropsychological Outcomes Will Differ from Clinical Expectations.

PubMed

Warren, David E; Denburg, Natalie L; Power, Jonathan D; Bruss, Joel; Waldron, Eric J; Sun, Haoxin; Petersen, Steve E; Tranel, Daniel

2017-02-01

Theories of brain-network organization based on neuroimaging data have burgeoned in recent years, but the predictive power of such theories for cognition and behavior has only rarely been examined. Here, predictions from clinical neuropsychologists about the cognitive profiles of patients with focal brain lesions were used to evaluate a brain-network theory (Warren et al., 2014). Neuropsychologists made predictions regarding the neuropsychological profiles of a neurological patient sample (N = 30) based on lesion location. The neuropsychologists then rated the congruence of their predictions with observed neuropsychological outcomes, in regard to the "severity" of neuropsychological deficits and the "focality" of neuropsychological deficits. Based on the network theory, two types of lesion locations were identified: "target" locations (putative hubs in a brain-wide network) and "control" locations (hypothesized to play limited roles in network function). We found that patients with lesions of target locations (N = 19) had deficits of greater than expected severity that were more widespread than expected, whereas patients with lesions of control locations (N = 11) showed milder, circumscribed deficits that were more congruent with expectations. The findings for the target brain locations suggest that prevailing views of brain-behavior relationships may be sharpened and refined by integrating recently proposed network-oriented perspectives. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Understanding Reactions to Workplace Injustice through Process Theories of Motivation: A Teaching Module and Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stecher, Mary D.; Rosse, Joseph G.

2007-01-01

Management and organizational behavior students are often overwhelmed by the plethora of motivation theories they must master at the undergraduate level. This article offers a teaching module geared toward helping students understand how two major process theories of motivation, equity and expectancy theories and theories of organizational…

Smoking Outcome Expectancies among College Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brandon, Thomas H.; Baker, Timothy B.

Alcohol expectancies have been found to predict later onset of drinking among adolescents. This study examined whether the relationship between level of alcohol use and expectancies is paralleled with cigarette smoking, and attempted to identify the content of smoking expectancies. An instrument to measure the subjective expected utility of…

A review of patient-centred post-fracture interventions in the context of theories of health behaviour change.

PubMed

Sujic, R; Gignac, M A; Cockerill, R; Beaton, D E

2011-08-01

The purpose of this literature review is to determine whether and to what extent current post-fracture osteoporosis interventions utilize theories of health behaviour change and whether those that are theory-based are more successful in producing desired behaviour changes. Studies were identified by applying additional criteria to the final selection stage of a systematic review of non-surgical osteoporosis interventions in the orthopaedic environment. We identified 42 primary studies targeted at patients and improving post-fracture osteoporosis care. As well as describing the studies (in terms of design, population, interventions, outcomes), we focused on theoretical framework and elements of behaviour change models. The 42 studies included in this review utilized a variety of post-fracture interventions; however, none of them reported using an underlying theoretical base. Only three studies drew on what we felt to be elements of a theoretical framework. The lack of theoretically based studies points to a currently under-utilized area of behaviour change research that could be applied to post-fracture interventions in order to make them more effective. Despite an abundance of literature supporting theories of behaviour change, post-fracture osteoporosis interventions do not report utilizing these theories. Theories of behaviour change could be applied to post-fracture osteoporosis interventions to explain why patients initiate osteoporosis management. Future research should explore the application of theories of health behaviour change to post-fracture interventions.

Development of a theory of the spectral reflectance of minerals, part 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aronson, J. R.; Emslie, A. G.; Smith, E. M.

1972-01-01

A theory of the spectral reflectance or emittance of particulate minerals was developed. The theory is expected to prove invaluable in the interpretation of the remote infrared spectra of planetary surfaces.

Electroconvulsive therapy: a Canadian perspective.

PubMed

Smith, W E; Richman, A

1984-12-01

Recent ECT practices in Canada are reviewed from a historical perspective with respect to specific criticisms. Utilization is decreasing; utilization rates vary widely between Provinces and between regions; disproportionate numbers of females have been receiving ECT; a substantial group of patients diagnosed as neurotic and schizophrenic continue to receive ECT; criteria and guidelines for its use are not consistently applied. Expected rates of ECT used are estimated, based on theory and practice as well as on published data on the epidemiology of affective disorders. Data on actual Canadian usage are reviewed and compared with an estimated minimum ratio of 30-45+ cases per year of non bi-polar depression per 100,000 population requiring ECT. Results show that there may be a substantial number of patients in some Provinces for whom ECT is the best available treatment and who are not receiving it. There is some ethical concern associated with possible under-use of ECT as the best therapy available for certain patient groups. Clinical cases and patterns of care should be reviewed at the hospital level to determine how best to effect improvements in the use of this treatment.

Impact of an individualist vs. collectivist context on the social valorization of internal explanations.

PubMed

Testé, Benoît

2012-01-01

The theory of the norm of internality emphasizes the role of Western individualism in the normativity of internal explanations. The present study examines the link between the social value accorded to targets expressing internal vs. external explanations and individualist vs. collectivist contexts. Sixty-three male and female French management sciences students evaluated two targets (internal vs. external) in a simulated recruitment situation. The job vacancy was partially manipulated to create individualist vs. collectivist contexts. Participants were asked to state whether or not they would recruit the targets and to describe the targets on traits relating to social utility (market value) and social desirability (likeability). As expected, the results showed that the effect of the targets' internality on recruitment judgments and perceived social utility was stronger in the individualist context than in the collectivist context. However, the analysis also revealed that the participant's gender moderated the impact of the context on the evaluation of the targets. The results showed that the context strongly affected the men's judgments, whereas it had no effect on the women's judgments.

Using science and psychology to improve the dissemination and evaluation of scientific work

PubMed Central

Buttliere, Brett T.

2014-01-01

Here I outline some of what science can tell us about the problems in psychological publishing and how to best address those problems. First, the motivation behind questionable research practices is examined (the desire to get ahead or, at least, not fall behind). Next, behavior modification strategies are discussed, pointing out that reward works better than punishment. Humans are utility seekers and the implementation of current change initiatives is hindered by high initial buy-in costs and insufficient expected utility. Open science tools interested in improving science should team up, to increase utility while lowering the cost and risk associated with engagement. The best way to realign individual and group motives will probably be to create one, centralized, easy to use, platform, with a profile, a feed of targeted science stories based upon previous system interaction, a sophisticated (public) discussion section, and impact metrics which use the associated data. These measures encourage high quality review and other prosocial activities while inhibiting self-serving behavior. Some advantages of centrally digitizing communications are outlined, including ways the data could be used to improve the peer review process. Most generally, it seems that decisions about change design and implementation should be theory and data driven. PMID:25191261

Stirling Analysis Comparison of Commercial vs. High-Order Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyson, Rodger W.; Wilson, Scott D.; Tew, Roy C.; Demko, Rikako

2007-01-01

Recently, three-dimensional Stirling engine simulations have been accomplished utilizing commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics software. The validations reported can be somewhat inconclusive due to the lack of precise time accurate experimental results from engines, export control/ proprietary concerns, and the lack of variation in the methods utilized. The last issue may be addressed by solving the same flow problem with alternate methods. In this work, a comprehensive examination of the methods utilized in the commercial codes is compared with more recently developed high-order methods. Specifically, Lele's Compact scheme and Dyson s Ultra Hi-Fi method will be compared with the SIMPLE and PISO methods currently employed in CFD-ACE, FLUENT, CFX, and STAR-CD (all commercial codes which can in theory solve a three-dimensional Stirling model although sliding interfaces and their moving grids limit the effective time accuracy). We will initially look at one-dimensional flows since the current standard practice is to design and optimize Stirling engines with empirically corrected friction and heat transfer coefficients in an overall one-dimensional model. This comparison provides an idea of the range in which commercial CFD software for modeling Stirling engines may be expected to provide accurate results. In addition, this work provides a framework for improving current one-dimensional analysis codes.

Stirling Analysis Comparison of Commercial Versus High-Order Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyson, Rodger W.; Wilson, Scott D.; Tew, Roy C.; Demko, Rikako

2005-01-01

Recently, three-dimensional Stirling engine simulations have been accomplished utilizing commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics software. The validations reported can be somewhat inconclusive due to the lack of precise time accurate experimental results from engines, export control/proprietary concerns, and the lack of variation in the methods utilized. The last issue may be addressed by solving the same flow problem with alternate methods. In this work, a comprehensive examination of the methods utilized in the commercial codes is compared with more recently developed high-order methods. Specifically, Lele's compact scheme and Dyson's Ultra Hi-Fi method will be compared with the SIMPLE and PISO methods currently employed in CFD-ACE, FLUENT, CFX, and STAR-CD (all commercial codes which can in theory solve a three-dimensional Stirling model with sliding interfaces and their moving grids limit the effective time accuracy). We will initially look at one-dimensional flows since the current standard practice is to design and optimize Stirling engines with empirically corrected friction and heat transfer coefficients in an overall one-dimensional model. This comparison provides an idea of the range in which commercial CFD software for modeling Stirling engines may be expected to provide accurate results. In addition, this work provides a framework for improving current one-dimensional analysis codes.

Motivational deficit in childhood depression and hyperactivity.

PubMed

Layne, C; Berry, E

1983-07-01

A recent theory states that the immediate cause of adult depression is low motivation, where motivation is the multiplicative product of a person's expectation for a reward times his value for that reward. The present experiment supported the extension of this theory to childhood depression. The expectations, values, and motivations of three groups of children (Ns = 18; mean ages = 10) were measured: A depressed group and a hyperactive control group were selected from a population of clinically disturbed children, while normal controls were selected from regular classrooms. As predicted, the depressed children exhibited reduced motivation, primarily because their expectations were pessimistic. Unexpected findings were that the depressives' expectations were not abnormally irrational; and that hyperactives exhibited optimistic expectations, inflated values, and, hence, inflated motivation--especially for tangible rewards. Cognitive therapy techniques that focus upon expectations were recommended for the treatment of both depressed and hyperactive children.

Do alcohol expectancy outcomes and valuations mediate peer influences and lifetime alcohol use among early adolescents?

PubMed

Zamboanga, Byron L; Schwartz, Seth J; Ham, Lindsay S; Jarvis, Lorna Hernandez; Olthuis, Janine V

2009-12-01

Building on the theory of reasoned action (I. Ajzen & M. Fishbein, 1973, 1980; M. Fishbein & I. Ajzen, 1975) and expectancy theory, the authors examined the mediating role of alcohol expectancies in adolescent drinking behaviors by testing whether alcohol expectancy outcomes and valuations (the extent to which these outcomes are perceived as good or bad) mediate the association between peer influences and lifetime alcohol use. Early adolescents (N = 904) from 2 public middle schools in western Michigan completed a battery of questionnaires. Overall, results showed that alcohol expectancies and valuations partially mediated the relations between peer influences (peer use and peer approval) and lifetime alcohol use. The findings suggest that associating with peers who are perceived as using alcohol and approving of drinking may influence adolescents' alcohol expectancies. The authors briefly discuss future research directions and implications for prevention.

Adult Student Expectations and Experiences in an Online Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bourdeaux, Renee; Schoenack, Lindsie

2016-01-01

This study investigated adult student experiences with instructors in online classes. Using expectancy violations theory as a lens, we conducted 22 interviews to understand reasons students enroll in online classes, expectations for instructors, and behaviors instructors employed that may or may not meet expectations. We conducted a thematic…

Expectancy-Value and Children's Science Achievement: Parents Matter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Julie A.; Strunk, Kamden K.

2017-01-01

This longitudinal study explored the ways parents' and teachers' expectancy for success influences 3rd-5th children's expectancy for success and achievement in science. Guided by an open-systems perspective and functional (Ballantine & Roberts, 2007) and expectancy-value (Eccles, 2005, 2007) theories, we focused on school related socialization…

Development of the Social Efficacy and Social Outcome Expectations Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wright, Stephen L.; Wright, Dorothy A.; Jenkins-Guarnieri, Michael A.

2013-01-01

The current study developed an 18-item scale measuring individuals' social expectations in relationships related to their efficacy expectations (Subscale 1) and outcome expectations (Subscale 2) based on Bandura's self-efficacy theory. Results from exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, using an undergraduate sample ("N" = 486),…

A Comprehensive Expectancy Motivation Model: Implications for Adult Education and Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Kenneth W.

1989-01-01

The Comprehensive Expectancy Motivation Model is based on valence-instrumentality-expectancy theory. It describes expectancy motivation as part of a larger process that includes past experience, motivation, effort, performance, reward, and need satisfaction. The model has significant implications for the design, marketing, and delivery of adult…

Connecting Expectations and Values: Students' Perceptions of Developmental Mathematics in a Computer-Based Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Karen Latrice Terrell

2014-01-01

Students' perceptions influence their expectations and values. According to Expectations and Values Theory of Achievement Motivation (EVT-AM), students' expectations and values impact their behaviors (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002). This study seeks to find students' perceptions of developmental mathematics in a mastery learning computer-based…

Risk-dependent reward value signal in human prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Tobler, Philippe N.; Christopoulos, George I.; O'Doherty, John P.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Schultz, Wolfram

2009-01-01

When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the expected value and risk of each option, and choose the one with the higher utility. Expected value increases the expected utility of an option for all individuals. Risk increases the utility of an option for risk-seeking individuals, but decreases it for risk averse individuals. In 2 separate experiments, one involving imperative (no-choice), the other choice situations, we investigated how predicted risk and expected value aggregate into a common reward signal in the human brain. Blood oxygen level dependent responses in lateral regions of the prefrontal cortex increased monotonically with increasing reward value in the absence of risk in both experiments. Risk enhanced these responses in risk-seeking participants, but reduced them in risk-averse participants. The aggregate value and risk responses in lateral prefrontal cortex contrasted with pure value signals independent of risk in the striatum. These results demonstrate an aggregate risk and value signal in the prefrontal cortex that would be compatible with basic assumptions underlying the mean-variance approach to utility. PMID:19369207

Utilization of Genograms and Eco-Maps To Assess American Indian Families Who Have a Member with a Disability. (Making Visible the Invisible.) Training Curriculum.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodluck, Charlotte Tsoi

This training manual demonstrates the utilization of two family assessment tools with American Indian rehabilitation clients. The manual begins with an overview of general systems theory, family systems theory, and family assessment theory. The genogram is then defined as a type of family tree covering at least three generations, offering a map of…

Motivations for Social Media Use and Impact on Political Participation in China: A Cognitive and Communication Mediation Approach.

PubMed

Chen, Zhuo; Chan, Michael

2017-02-01

Integrating uses and gratifications theory and the cognitive/communication mediation model: this study examines Chinese students' use of social media and subsequent impact on political participation. An integrative framework is proposed where media use, political expression, and political cognitions (efficacy and knowledge) play important mediating roles between audience motivations and participation. Structural equation analyses showed support for the integrated model. Guidance and social utility motivations exhibited different indirect effects on online and offline participation through social media news, discussion, and political efficacy. Entertainment motivations exhibited no direct or indirect effects. Contrary to expectations and previous literature, surveillance motivations exhibited negative direct and indirect effects on offline participation, which may be attributed to the particular Chinese social and political context. Implications of the findings are discussed.

How queer!--the development of gender identity and sexual orientation in LGBTQ-headed families.

PubMed

Istar Lev, Arlene

2010-09-01

This paper focuses on the impact of heteronormativity on research and clinical theory, utilizing the case of a lesbian couple with a young gender dysphoric child as a backdrop to discuss the contextual unfolding of gender development within a lesbian parented family. The extant research on LGBTQ-headed families has minimized the complexity of children's developing gender identity and sexual orientation living in queer families, and has been guided by heteronormative assumptions that presume a less optimal outcome if the children of LGBTQ parents are gay or transgender themselves. This article challenges family therapists to recognize the enormous societal pressure on LGBTQ parents to produce heterosexual, gender-normative children, and the expectations on their children, especially those questioning their own sex or gender identities. 2010 © FPI, Inc.

The interrogation decision-making model: A general theoretical framework for confessions.

PubMed

Yang, Yueran; Guyll, Max; Madon, Stephanie

2017-02-01

This article presents a new model of confessions referred to as the interrogation decision-making model . This model provides a theoretical umbrella with which to understand and analyze suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt in the context of a custodial interrogation. The model draws upon expected utility theory to propose a mathematical account of the psychological mechanisms that not only underlie suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt at any specific point during an interrogation, but also how confession decisions can change over time. Findings from the extant literature pertaining to confessions are considered to demonstrate how the model offers a comprehensive and integrative framework for organizing a range of effects within a limited set of model parameters. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

π and 4 π Josephson Effects Mediated by a Dirac Semimetal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, W.; Pan, W.; Medlin, D. L.; Rodriguez, M. A.; Lee, S. R.; Bao, Zhi-qiang; Zhang, F.

2018-04-01

Cd3As2 is a three-dimensional topological Dirac semimetal with connected Fermi-arc surface states. It has been suggested that topological superconductivity can be achieved in the nontrivial surface states of topological materials by utilizing the superconductor proximity effect. Here we report observations of both π and 4 π periodic supercurrents in aluminum-Cd3As2 -aluminum Josephson junctions. The π period is manifested by both the magnetic-field dependence of the critical supercurrent and the appearance of half-integer Shapiro steps in the ac Josephson effect. Our macroscopic theory suggests that the π period arises from interference between the induced bulk superconductivity and the induced Fermi-arc surface superconductivity. The 4 π period is manifested by the missing first Shapiro steps and is expected for topological superconductivity.

Why cognitive science needs philosophy and vice versa.

PubMed

Thagard, Paul

2009-04-01

Contrary to common views that philosophy is extraneous to cognitive science, this paper argues that philosophy has a crucial role to play in cognitive science with respect to generality and normativity. General questions include the nature of theories and explanations, the role of computer simulation in cognitive theorizing, and the relations among the different fields of cognitive science. Normative questions include whether human thinking should be Bayesian, whether decision making should maximize expected utility, and how norms should be established. These kinds of general and normative questions make philosophical reflection an important part of progress in cognitive science. Philosophy operates best, however, not with a priori reasoning or conceptual analysis, but rather with empirically informed reflection on a wide range of findings in cognitive science. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Using program impact pathways to understand and improve program delivery, utilization, and potential for impact of Helen Keller International's homestead food production program in Cambodia.

PubMed

Olney, Deanna K; Vicheka, Sao; Kro, Meng; Chakriya, Chhom; Kroeun, Hou; Hoing, Ly Sok; Talukder, Aminzzaman; Quinn, Victoria; Iannotti, Lora; Becker, Elisabeth; Roopnaraine, Terry

2013-06-01

Evidence of the impact of homestead food production programs on nutrition outcomes such as anemia and growth is scant. In the absence of information on program impact pathways, it is difficult to understand why these programs, which have been successful in increasing intake of micronutrient-rich foods, have had such limited documented impact on nutrition outcomes. To conduct a process evaluation of Helen Keller International's (HKI's) homestead food production program in Cambodia to assess whether the program was operating as planned (in terms of design, delivery, and utilization) and to identify ways in which the program might need to be strengthened in order to increase its potential for impact. A program theory framework, which laid out the primary components along the hypothesized program impact pathways, was developed in collaboration with HKI and used to design the research. Semistructured interviews and focus group discussions with program beneficiaries (n = 36 and 12, respectively), nonbeneficiaries (n = 12), and program implementers (n = 17 and 2, respectively) and observations of key program delivery points, including health and nutrition training sessions (n = 6), village model farms (n = 6), and household gardens of beneficiaries (n = 36) and nonbeneficiaries (n = 12), were conducted to assess the delivery and utilization of the primary program components along the impact pathways. The majority of program components were being delivered and utilized as planned. However, challenges with some of the key components posited to improve outcomes such as anemia and growth were noted. Among these were a gap in the expected pathway from poultry production to increased intake of eggs and poultry meat, and some weaknesses in the delivery of the health and nutrition training sessions and related improvements in knowledge among the village health volunteers and beneficiaries. Although the program has been successful in delivering the majority of the program components as planned and has documented achievements in improving household production and intake of micronutrient-rich foods, it is likely that strengthening delivery and increasing utilization of some program components would increase its potential for nutritional impacts. This research has highlighted the importance of designing a program theory framework and assessing the components that lie along the primary program impact pathways to optimize program service delivery and utilization and, in turn, potential for impact.

Motivation and Gifted Students: Implications of Theory and Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clinkenbeard, Pamela R.

2012-01-01

An analysis of contemporary motivation theories reveals implications for gifted and talented students. The expectancy-value framework, intrinsic-extrinsic motivation theories, goal orientations, self-efficacy and other self-perceptions, and attribution theory are described and discussed with respect to implications for the psychology and education…

Experimental evidence for adaptive personalities in a wild passerine bird

PubMed Central

Nicolaus, Marion; Tinbergen, Joost M.; Bouwman, Karen M.; Michler, Stephanie P. M.; Ubels, Richard; Both, Christiaan; Kempenaers, Bart; Dingemanse, Niels J.

2012-01-01

Individuals of the same species differ consistently in risky actions. Such ‘animal personality’ variation is intriguing because behavioural flexibility is often assumed to be the norm. Recent theory predicts that between-individual differences in propensity to take risks should evolve if individuals differ in future fitness expectations: individuals with high long-term fitness expectations (i.e. that have much to lose) should behave consistently more cautious than individuals with lower expectations. Consequently, any manipulation of future fitness expectations should result in within-individual changes in risky behaviour in the direction predicted by this adaptive theory. We tested this prediction and confirmed experimentally that individuals indeed adjust their ‘exploration behaviour’, a proxy for risk-taking behaviour, to their future fitness expectations. We show for wild great tits (Parus major) that individuals with experimentally decreased survival probability become faster explorers (i.e. increase risk-taking behaviour) compared to individuals with increased survival probability. We also show, using quantitative genetics approaches, that non-genetic effects (i.e. permanent environment effects) underpin adaptive personality variation in this species. This study thereby confirms a key prediction of adaptive personality theory based on life-history trade-offs, and implies that selection may indeed favour the evolution of personalities in situations where individuals differ in future fitness expectations. PMID:23097506

Profiling Neurolanguage Coaches Worldwide--A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeppos, Dimitris

2014-01-01

Neurolanguage Coaching™ is a new approach of diversified personalized language instruction utilizing modern insights of neuroscientific and pedagogic theories. This paper addresses the issue of profiling educational experts, who utilize these theories to coach language learners through their language acquisition journey, by means of setting and…

Cautioning Health-Care Professionals.

PubMed

Stroebe, Margaret; Schut, Henk; Boerner, Kathrin

2017-03-01

Science and practice seem deeply stuck in the so-called stage theory of grief. Health-care professionals continue to "prescribe" stages. Basically, this perspective endorses the idea that bereaved people go through a set pattern of specific reactions over time following the death of a loved one. It has frequently been interpreted prescriptively, as a progression that bereaved persons must follow in order to adapt to loss. It is of paramount importance to assess stage theory, not least in view of the current status of the maladaptive "persistent complex bereavement-related disorder" as a category for further research in DSM-5. We therefore review the status and value of this approach. It has remained hugely influential among researchers as well as practitioners across recent decades, but there has also been forceful opposition. Major concerns include the absence of sound empirical evidence, conceptual clarity, or explanatory potential. It lacks practical utility for the design or allocation of treatment services, and it does not help identification of those at risk or with complications in the grieving process. Most disturbingly, the expectation that bereaved persons will, even should, go through stages of grieving can be harmful to those who do not. Following such lines of reasoning, we argue that stage theory should be discarded by all concerned (including bereaved persons themselves); at best, it should be relegated to the realms of history. There are alternative models that better represent grieving processes. We develop guidelines to enhance such a move beyond the stage approach in both theory and practice.

Cautioning Health-Care Professionals

PubMed Central

Schut, Henk; Boerner, Kathrin

2017-01-01

Science and practice seem deeply stuck in the so-called stage theory of grief. Health-care professionals continue to “prescribe” stages. Basically, this perspective endorses the idea that bereaved people go through a set pattern of specific reactions over time following the death of a loved one. It has frequently been interpreted prescriptively, as a progression that bereaved persons must follow in order to adapt to loss. It is of paramount importance to assess stage theory, not least in view of the current status of the maladaptive “persistent complex bereavement-related disorder” as a category for further research in DSM-5. We therefore review the status and value of this approach. It has remained hugely influential among researchers as well as practitioners across recent decades, but there has also been forceful opposition. Major concerns include the absence of sound empirical evidence, conceptual clarity, or explanatory potential. It lacks practical utility for the design or allocation of treatment services, and it does not help identification of those at risk or with complications in the grieving process. Most disturbingly, the expectation that bereaved persons will, even should, go through stages of grieving can be harmful to those who do not. Following such lines of reasoning, we argue that stage theory should be discarded by all concerned (including bereaved persons themselves); at best, it should be relegated to the realms of history. There are alternative models that better represent grieving processes. We develop guidelines to enhance such a move beyond the stage approach in both theory and practice. PMID:28355991

Computational-Model-Based Analysis of Context Effects on Harmonic Expectancy.

PubMed

Morimoto, Satoshi; Remijn, Gerard B; Nakajima, Yoshitaka

2016-01-01

Expectancy for an upcoming musical chord, harmonic expectancy, is supposedly based on automatic activation of tonal knowledge. Since previous studies implicitly relied on interpretations based on Western music theory, the underlying computational processes involved in harmonic expectancy and how it relates to tonality need further clarification. In particular, short chord sequences which cannot lead to unique keys are difficult to interpret in music theory. In this study, we examined effects of preceding chords on harmonic expectancy from a computational perspective, using stochastic modeling. We conducted a behavioral experiment, in which participants listened to short chord sequences and evaluated the subjective relatedness of the last chord to the preceding ones. Based on these judgments, we built stochastic models of the computational process underlying harmonic expectancy. Following this, we compared the explanatory power of the models. Our results imply that, even when listening to short chord sequences, internally constructed and updated tonal assumptions determine the expectancy of the upcoming chord.

Computational-Model-Based Analysis of Context Effects on Harmonic Expectancy

PubMed Central

Morimoto, Satoshi; Remijn, Gerard B.; Nakajima, Yoshitaka

2016-01-01

Expectancy for an upcoming musical chord, harmonic expectancy, is supposedly based on automatic activation of tonal knowledge. Since previous studies implicitly relied on interpretations based on Western music theory, the underlying computational processes involved in harmonic expectancy and how it relates to tonality need further clarification. In particular, short chord sequences which cannot lead to unique keys are difficult to interpret in music theory. In this study, we examined effects of preceding chords on harmonic expectancy from a computational perspective, using stochastic modeling. We conducted a behavioral experiment, in which participants listened to short chord sequences and evaluated the subjective relatedness of the last chord to the preceding ones. Based on these judgments, we built stochastic models of the computational process underlying harmonic expectancy. Following this, we compared the explanatory power of the models. Our results imply that, even when listening to short chord sequences, internally constructed and updated tonal assumptions determine the expectancy of the upcoming chord. PMID:27003807

Global Connectivity and Government Capacity: Social Networks, Order, Change, and Conflict

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

via social media networks (Internet and the World Wide Web [WWW]) and the institutional capacities of central governance. Blending theory with data...Huntington’s main thesis argument postulates that: Social and economic change—urbanization, increases in literacy and education, industrialization...that forge a common identity. His theory builds on the expectation that “we should expect that mass media technologies will strengthen economies of

Predicting Student Grade Point Average at a Community College from Scholastic Aptitude Tests and from Measures Representing Three Constructs in Vroom's Expectancy Theory Model of Motivation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malloch, Douglas C.; Michael, William B.

1981-01-01

This study was designed to determine whether an unweighted linear combination of community college students' scores on standardized achievement tests and a measure of motivational constructs derived from Vroom's expectance theory model of motivation was predictive of academic success (grade point average earned during one quarter of an academic…

AN EDUCATIONAL THEORY MODEL--(SIGGS), AN INTEGRATION OF SET THEORY, INFORMATION THEORY, AND GRAPH THEORY WITH GENERAL SYSTEMS THEORY.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MACCIA, ELIZABETH S.; AND OTHERS

AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF 20 ITEMS AND A DISCUSSION OF ITS SIGNIFICANCE WAS PRESENTED TO DESCRIBE CURRENT UTILIZATION OF SUBJECT THEORIES IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN EDUCATIONAL THEORY. ALSO, A THEORY MODEL WAS USED TO DEMONSTRATE CONSTRUCTION OF A SCIENTIFIC EDUCATIONAL THEORY. THE THEORY MODEL INCORPORATED SET THEORY (S), INFORMATION THEORY…

Transactional price of an expected child and its application in birth control.

PubMed

Li, X

1993-01-01

The theoretical presentation of the impact of the transactional price of an expected child (TPEC) on birth control led to the conclusion that successful birth control was a combination of birth utility theory and TPEC theory. In a hypothetical market, the assumption can be made that an expected price can be attached to a desired child or a transactional price can be attached for giving up the reproductive right to have an excess child. A consumer equilibrium model can characterize the changes in financial resources necessary in deciding on an appropriate number of children. In a general equilibrium model, couples would have to be compensated a certain amount as an inducement to forgo the right to have a second child. Prices of children can be determined by a distributional curve of this transactional price of expected excess children and the estimated marginal price for couples with two children. Under circumstances of limited resources, it would be cheaper to buy some couple's rights to forgo a child, and this price would vary with parity. The exact transactional price of each child by parity by each couple could be theoretically determined, if all couples told the truth about desired number of children. However, the complication is that this condition may not be possible, and couples may charge more for forgoing the right to a subsequent child that what they would actually accept. Also, the seller could ask one price and then charge more. A compromise would be to set prices only for lower parities and to set prices subject to the total funds available to the buyer. Very low prices would also decrease the effectiveness of birth control. The government could be a buyer or seller. Taxing couples for additional children would make the government a seller. When the government is the buyer, couples would be compensated for not having an additional child. Another possibility is a reward for having only a certain number of children and a tax for excess children, which would be a mixed transactional price. The transactional price must be contractual, and breach of contract would mean forfeiture of profit or required sterilization.

Using Multiattribute Utility Theory as a Priority-Setting Tool in Human Services Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Camasso, Michael J.; Dick, Janet

1993-01-01

The feasibility of applying multiattribute utility theory to the needs assessment and priority-setting activities of human services planning councils was studied in Essex County (New Jersey). Decision-making and information filtering processes are explored in the context of community planning. (SLD)

Development of an Analysis Method to Identify the Root Causes of Finding from the Air Force Environmental Compliance Assessment and Management Program (ECAMP)

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-09-01

Theories and Applications ..................... 17 Theories of Motivation ........................... 18 Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs...18 Herzberg’s Motivation-Hygiene Theory ............. 19 Instrinsic vs Extrinsic Assumptions ................... 22 McGregor’s Theory X and Theory ...Y Assumptions ...... ... 22 Vroom’s Expectancy Theory ..................... 24 Applications ........ .......................... 25 Tell People What

The utility of hand transplantation in hand amputee patients.

PubMed

Alolabi, Noor; Chuback, Jennifer; Grad, Sharon; Thoma, Achilles

2015-01-01

To measure the desirable health outcome, termed utility, and the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with hand composite tissue allotransplantation (CTA) using hand amputee patients and the general public. Using the standard gamble (SG) and time trade-off (TTO) techniques, utilities were obtained from 30 general public participants and 12 amputee patients. The health utility and net QALYs gained or lost with transplantation were computed. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to account for the effects of lifelong immunosuppression on the life expectancy of transplant recipients. Higher scores represent greater utility. Hand amputation mean health utility as measured by the SG and TTO methods, respectively, was 0.72 and 0.80 for the general public and 0.69 and 0.70 for hand amputees. In comparison, hand CTA mean health utility was 0.74 and 0.82 for the general public and 0.83 and 0.86 for amputees. Hand CTA imparted an expected gain of 0.9 QALYs (SG and TTO) in the general public and 7.0 (TTO) and 7.8 (SG) QALYs in hand amputees. A loss of at least 1.7 QALYs was demonstrated when decreasing the life expectancy in the sensitivity analysis in the hand amputee group. Hand amputee patients did not show a preference toward hand CTA with its inherent risks. With this procedure being increasingly adopted worldwide, the benefits must be carefully weighed against the risks of lifelong immunosuppressive therapy. This study does not show clear benefit to advocate hand CTA. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Job-Searching Expectations, Expectancy Violations, and Communication Strategies of Recent College Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Stephanie A.

2017-01-01

Expectancy violations theory, a communicative framework, is applied in this study to understand how recent college graduates form, evaluate, and respond to violated job-searching expectations. In-depth interviews of college seniors (N = 20) who were currently job searching helped answer the three research questions posed. Using a thematic…

Specific efficacy expectations mediate exercise compliance in patients with COPD.

PubMed

Kaplan, R M; Atkins, C J; Reinsch, S

1984-01-01

Social learning theory has generated two different approaches for the assessment of expectancies. Bandura argues that expectancies are specific and do not generalize. Therefore, he prefers measures of specific efficacy expectations. Others endorse the role of generalized expectancies measured by locus of control scales. The present study examines specific versus generalized expectancies as mediators of changes in exercise behavior among 60 older adult patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. The patients were given a prescription to increase exercise and randomly assigned to experimental groups or control groups. All groups received attention but only experimental groups received training to increase their exercise. After 3 months, groups given specific training for compliance with walking significantly increased their activity in comparison to the control group receiving only attention. These changes were mediated by changes in perceived efficacy for walking, with efficacy expectations for other behaviors changing as a function of their similarity to walking. A generalized health locus of control expectancy measure was less clearly associated with behavior change. The results are interpreted as supporting Bandura's version of social theory.

Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

PubMed

Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

2016-01-01

The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

A general theory of intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time

PubMed Central

Namboodiri, Vijay M. K.; Mihalas, Stefan; Marton, Tanya M.; Hussain Shuler, Marshall G.

2014-01-01

Animals and humans make decisions based on their expected outcomes. Since relevant outcomes are often delayed, perceiving delays and choosing between earlier vs. later rewards (intertemporal decision-making) is an essential component of animal behavior. The myriad observations made in experiments studying intertemporal decision-making and time perception have not yet been rationalized within a single theory. Here we present a theory—Training-Integrated Maximized Estimation of Reinforcement Rate (TIMERR)—that explains a wide variety of behavioral observations made in intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time. Our theory postulates that animals make intertemporal choices to optimize expected reward rates over a limited temporal window which includes a past integration interval—over which experienced reward rate is estimated—as well as the expected delay to future reward. Using this theory, we derive mathematical expressions for both the subjective value of a delayed reward and the subjective representation of the delay. A unique contribution of our work is in finding that the past integration interval directly determines the steepness of temporal discounting and the non-linearity of time perception. In so doing, our theory provides a single framework to understand both intertemporal decision-making and time perception. PMID:24616677

Response Expectancy and the Placebo Effect.

PubMed

Kirsch, Irving

2018-01-01

In this chapter, I review basic tenets of response expectancy theory (Kirsch, 1985), beginning with the important distinction between response expectancies and stimulus expectancies. Although both can affect experience, the effects of response expectancies are stronger and more resistant to extinction than those of stimulus expectancies. Further, response expectancies are especially important to understanding placebo effects. The response expectancy framework is consistent with and has been amplified by the Bayesian model of predictive coding. Clinical implications of these phenomena are exemplified. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Two-Communities Theory and Knowledge Utilization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caplan, Nathan

1979-01-01

Discusses strategies to improve policy makers' utilization of research based on the "two-communities" theory that social scientists and policy makers live in two different worlds. Notes that for high level decision making, collaboration must involve more general problems and a decision to use either data-based or nonresearch knowledge for solving…

Social Comparison or Utility: An Experimental Examination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rofe, Yacov; Lewin, Isaac

1988-01-01

Examined emotional comparison theory and utility theory in an analysis of effects of stress on affiliation in a laboratory setting. Two intense fear situations concerning the administration of painful electrical shocks were added to Schachter's (1959) original fear manipulation. Results showed that two new fear conditions resulted in marked…

What Information Theory Says About Best Response and About Binding Contracts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

Product Distribution (PD) theory is the information-theoretic extension of conventional full- rationality game theory to bounded rational games. Here PD theory is used to investigate games in which the players use bounded rational best-response strategies. This investigation illuminates how to determine the optimal organization chart for a corporation, or more generally how to order the sequence of moves of the players / employees so as to optimize an overall objective function. It is then shown that in the continuum-time limit, bounded rational best response games result in a variant of the replicator dynamics of evolutionary game theory. This variant is then investigated for team games, in which the players share the same utility function, by showing that such continuum- limit bounded rational best response is identical to Newton-Raphson iterative optimization of the shared utility function. Next PD theory is used to investigate changing the coordinate system of the game, i.e., changing the mapping from the joint move of the players to the arguments in the utility functions. Such a change couples those arguments, essentially by making each players move be an offered binding contract.

Heavy quark free energy in QCD and in gauge theories with gravity duals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noronha, Jorge

2010-09-01

Recent lattice results in pure glue SU(3) theory at high temperatures have shown that the expectation value of the renormalized Polyakov loop approaches its asymptotic limit at high temperatures from above. We show that this implies that the “heavy quark free energy” obtained from the renormalized loop computed on the lattice does not behave like a true thermodynamic free energy. While this should be expected to occur in asymptotically free gauge theories such as QCD, we use the gauge/string duality to show that in a large class of strongly coupled gauge theories with nontrivial UV fixed points the Polyakov loop reaches its asymptotic value from above only if the dimension of the relevant operator used to deform the conformal field theory is greater than or equal to 3.

Multivariate Modelling of the Career Intent of Air Force Personnel.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

index (HOPP) was used as a measure of current job satisfaction . As with the Vroom and Fishbein/Graen models, two separate validations were accom...34 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , 23: 251-267, 1979. Lewis, Logan M. "Expectancy Theory as a Predictive Model of Career Intent, Job Satisfaction ...W. Albright. "Expectancy Theory Predictions of the Satisfaction , Effort, Performance , and Retention of Naval Aviation Officers," Organizational

When theory and biology differ: The relationship between reward prediction errors and expectancy.

PubMed

Williams, Chad C; Hassall, Cameron D; Trska, Robert; Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E

2017-10-01

Comparisons between expectations and outcomes are critical for learning. Termed prediction errors, the violations of expectancy that occur when outcomes differ from expectations are used to modify value and shape behaviour. In the present study, we examined how a wide range of expectancy violations impacted neural signals associated with feedback processing. Participants performed a time estimation task in which they had to guess the duration of one second while their electroencephalogram was recorded. In a key manipulation, we varied task difficulty across the experiment to create a range of different feedback expectancies - reward feedback was either very expected, expected, 50/50, unexpected, or very unexpected. As predicted, the amplitude of the reward positivity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with feedback processing, scaled inversely with expectancy (e.g., unexpected feedback yielded a larger reward positivity than expected feedback). Interestingly, the scaling of the reward positivity to outcome expectancy was not linear as would be predicted by some theoretical models. Specifically, we found that the amplitude of the reward positivity was about equivalent for very expected and expected feedback, and for very unexpected and unexpected feedback. As such, our results demonstrate a sigmoidal relationship between reward expectancy and the amplitude of the reward positivity, with interesting implications for theories of reinforcement learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modern Prescription Theory and Application: Realistic Expectations for Speech Recognition With Hearing Aids

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

A major decision at the time of hearing aid fitting and dispensing is the amount of amplification to provide listeners (both adult and pediatric populations) for the appropriate compensation of sensorineural hearing impairment across a range of frequencies (e.g., 160–10000 Hz) and input levels (e.g., 50–75 dB sound pressure level). This article describes modern prescription theory for hearing aids within the context of a risk versus return trade-off and efficient frontier analyses. The expected return of amplification recommendations (i.e., generic prescriptions such as National Acoustic Laboratories—Non-Linear 2, NAL-NL2, and Desired Sensation Level Multiple Input/Output, DSL m[i/o]) for the Speech Intelligibility Index (SII) and high-frequency audibility were traded against a potential risk (i.e., loudness). The modeled performance of each prescription was compared one with another and with the efficient frontier of normal hearing sensitivity (i.e., a reference point for the most return with the least risk). For the pediatric population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while DSL m[i/o] was more efficient for high-frequency audibility. For the adult population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while the two prescriptions were similar with regard to high-frequency audibility. In terms of absolute return (i.e., not considering the risk of loudness), however, DSL m[i/o] prescribed more outright high-frequency audibility than NAL-NL2 for either aged population, particularly, as hearing loss increased. Given the principles and demonstrated accuracy of desensitization (reduced utility of audibility with increasing hearing loss) observed at the group level, additional high-frequency audibility beyond that of NAL-NL2 is not expected to make further contributions to speech intelligibility (recognition) for the average listener. PMID:24253361

Strategic Tutor Monitoring.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chee-kwong, Kenneth Chao

1996-01-01

Discusses effective tutor monitoring strategies based on experiences at the Open Learning Institute of Hong Kong. Highlights include key performance and strategic control points; situational factors, including tutor expectations and relevant culture; Theory X versus Theory Y leadership theories; and monitoring relationships with tutors. (LRW)