Sample records for expected value

  1. Synergistic Effects of Expectancy and Value on Homework Engagement: The Case for a Within-Person Perspective.

    PubMed

    Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich; Kelava, Augustin; Lüdtke, Oliver

    2013-05-01

    Historically, expectancy-value models of motivation assumed a synergistic relation between expectancy and value: motivation is high only when both expectancy and value are high. Motivational processes were studied from a within-person perspective, with expectancies and values being assessed or experimentally manipulated across multiple domains and the focus being placed on intraindividual differences. In contrast, contemporary expectancy-value models in educational psychology concentrate almost exclusively on linear effects of expectancy and value on motivational outcomes, with a focus on between-person differences. Recent advances in latent variable methodology allow both issues to be addressed in observational studies. Using the expectancy-value model of homework motivation as a theoretical framework, this study estimated multilevel structural equation models with latent interactions in a sample of 511 secondary school students and found synergistic effects between domain-specific homework expectancy and homework value in predicting homework engagement in 6 subjects. This approach not only brings the "×" back into expectancy-value theory but also reestablishes the within-person perspective as the appropriate level of analysis for latent expectancy-value models.

  2. Who took the "x" out of expectancy-value theory? A psychological mystery, a substantive-methodological synergy, and a cross-national generalization.

    PubMed

    Nagengast, Benjamin; Marsh, Herbert W; Scalas, L Francesca; Xu, Man K; Hau, Kit-Tai; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2011-08-01

    Expectancy-value theory (EVT) is a dominant theory of human motivation. Historically, the Expectancy × Value interaction, in which motivation is high only if both expectancy and value are high, was central to EVT. However, the Expectancy × Value interaction mysteriously disappeared from published research more than 25 years ago. Using large representative samples of 15-year-olds (N = 398,750) from 57 diverse countries, we attempted to solve this mystery by testing Expectancy × Value interactions using latent-variable models with interactions. Expectancy (science self-concept), value (enjoyment of science), and the Expectancy × Value interaction all had statistically significant positive effects on both engagement in science activities and intentions of pursuing scientific careers; these results were similar for the total sample and for nearly all of the 57 countries considered separately. This study, apparently the strongest cross-national test of EVT ever undertaken, supports the generalizability of EVT predictions--including the "lost" Expectancy × Value interaction.

  3. Content Specificity of Expectancy Beliefs and Task Values in Elementary Physical Education

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Ang; Martin, Robert; Ennis, Catherine D.; Sun, Haichun

    2015-01-01

    The curriculum may superimpose a content-specific context that mediates motivation (Bong, 2001). This study examined content specificity of the expectancy-value motivation in elementary school physical education. Students’ expectancy beliefs and perceived task values from a cardiorespiratory fitness unit, a muscular fitness unit, and a traditional skill/game unit were analyzed using constant comparison coding procedures, multivariate analysis of variance, χ2, and correlation analyses. There was no difference in the intrinsic interest value among the three content conditions. Expectancy belief, attainment, and utility values were significantly higher for the cardiorespiratory fitness curriculum. Correlations differentiated among the expectancy-value components of the content conditions, providing further evidence of content specificity in the expectancy-value motivation process. The findings suggest that expectancy beliefs and task values should be incorporated in the theoretical platform for curriculum development based on the learning outcomes that can be specified with enhanced motivation effect. PMID:18664044

  4. Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

    PubMed

    Wigfield; Eccles

    2000-01-01

    We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  5. Connecting Expectations and Values: Students' Perceptions of Developmental Mathematics in a Computer-Based Learning Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Karen Latrice Terrell

    2014-01-01

    Students' perceptions influence their expectations and values. According to Expectations and Values Theory of Achievement Motivation (EVT-AM), students' expectations and values impact their behaviors (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002). This study seeks to find students' perceptions of developmental mathematics in a mastery learning computer-based…

  6. Probing for the Multiplicative Term in Modern Expectancy-Value Theory: A Latent Interaction Modeling Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trautwein, Ulrich; Marsh, Herbert W.; Nagengast, Benjamin; Ludtke, Oliver; Nagy, Gabriel; Jonkmann, Kathrin

    2012-01-01

    In modern expectancy-value theory (EVT) in educational psychology, expectancy and value beliefs additively predict performance, persistence, and task choice. In contrast to earlier formulations of EVT, the multiplicative term Expectancy x Value in regression-type models typically plays no major role in educational psychology. The present study…

  7. Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

    PubMed

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

  8. Promoting Physical Activity in Hong Kong Chinese Young People: Factors Influencing Their Subjective Task Values and Expectancy Beliefs in Physical Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pang, Bonnie

    2014-01-01

    According to Eccles et al.'s (1983) Expectancy Value Model, the two major constructs that influence young people's activity choice are subjective task value and expectancy beliefs (Eccles et al., 1983). Eccles et al. (1983) conceptually distinguished four dimensions of subjective task value: attainment value, intrinsic value, utility value and…

  9. Resolving the theory of planned behaviour's 'expectancy-value muddle' using dimensional salience.

    PubMed

    Newton, Joshua D; Ewing, Michael T; Burney, Sue; Hay, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour is one of the most widely used models of decision-making in the health literature. Unfortunately, the primary method for assessing the theory's belief-based expectancy-value models results in statistically uninterpretable findings, giving rise to what has become known as the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Moreover, existing methods for resolving this muddle are associated with various conceptual or practical limitations. This study addresses these issues by identifying and evaluating a parsimonious method for resolving the expectancy-value muddle. Three hundred and nine Australian residents aged 18-24 years rated the expectancy and value of 18 beliefs about posthumous organ donation. Participants also nominated their five most salient beliefs using a dimensional salience approach. Salient beliefs were perceived as being more likely to eventuate than non-salient beliefs, indicating that salient beliefs could be used to signify the expectancy component. The expectancy-value term was therefore represented by summing the value ratings of salient beliefs, an approach that predicted attitude (adjusted R2 = 0.21) and intention (adjusted R2 = 0.21). These findings suggest that the dimensional salience approach is a useful method for overcoming the expectancy-value muddle in applied research settings.

  10. A comparison of positive and negative alcohol expectancy and value and their multiplicative composite as predictors of post-treatment abstinence survivorship.

    PubMed

    Jones, B T; McMahon, J

    1996-01-01

    Within social learning theory, positive alcohol expectancies represent motivation to drink and negative expectancies, motivation to restrain. It is also recognized that a subjective evaluation of expectancies ought to moderate their impact, although the evidence for this in social drinkers is problematic. This paper addresses the speculation that the moderating effect will be more evident in clinical populations. This study shows that (i) both expectancy and value reliably, independently and equally predict clients' abstinence survivorship following discharge from a treatment programme (and that this is almost entirely confined to the negative rather than positive terms). When (ii) expectancy evaluations are processed against expectancy through multiplicative composites (i.e. expectancy x value), their predictive power is only equivalent to either expectancy or value on its own. However (iii) when the multiplicative composite is assessed following the statistical guidelines advocated by Evans (1991) (i.e. within the same model as its constituents, expectancy and value) the increase in outcome variance explained by its inclusion is negligible and casts doubt upon its use in alcohol research. This does not appear to apply to value, however, and its possible role in treatment is discussed.

  11. Children's motivation in elementary physical education: an expectancy-value model of achievement choice.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin; Solmon, Melinda

    2003-03-01

    This study examined children's motivation in elementary physical education within an expectancy-value model developed by Eccles and her colleagues. Four hundred fourteen students in second and fourth grades completed questionnaires assessing their expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and intention for future participation in physical education. Results indicated that expectancy-related beliefs and subjective task values were clearly distinguishable from one another across physical education and throwing. The two constructs were related to each other positively. Children's intention for future participation in physical education was positively associated with their subjective task values and/or expectancy-related beliefs. Younger children had higher motivation for learning in physical education than older children. Gender differences emerged and the findings provided empirical evidence supporting the validity of the expectancy-value model in elementary physical education.

  12. Values and depressive symptoms in American Indian youth of the Northern Plains: examining the potential moderating roles of outcome expectancies and perceived community values.

    PubMed

    Mousseau, Alicia C; Scott, Walter D; Estes, David

    2014-03-01

    Very little is known about processes contributing to depressive experiences in American Indian youth. We explored the relationship between value priorities and depressive symptoms among 183 (65% female) American Indian youth in grades 9-12. In addition, two potential moderators of this relationship were examined: value outcome expectations (i.e., whether one expects that values will be realized or not) and perceived community values. We found that American Indian youth who endorsed higher levels of tradition/benevolence values reported fewer depressive symptoms. However, the relationship between endorsing power/materialism values and depressive symptoms depended on the extent to which youth perceived their communities as valuing power/materialism. Finally, value outcome expectancies appeared to relate more strongly to depressive symptoms than did value priorities. Overall, these findings support tribal community efforts to impart tradition/benevolence values to American Indian youth but also emphasize the importance of attending to value outcome expectations and the perceived values of the community in understanding American Indian youth's depressive experiences.

  13. Evaluating the Value of Information in the Presence of High Uncertainty

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    in this hierarchy is subsumed in the Knowledge and Information layers. If information with high expected value is identified, it then passes up...be, the higher is its value. Based on the idea of expected utility of asking a question [36], Nelson [31] discusses different approaches for...18] formalizes the expected value of a sample of information using the concept of pre-posterior analysis as the expected increase in utility by

  14. Exact finite volume expectation values of \\overline{Ψ}Ψ in the massive Thirring model from light-cone lattice correlators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegedűs, Árpád

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, using the light-cone lattice regularization, we compute the finite volume expectation values of the composite operator \\overline{Ψ}Ψ between pure fermion states in the Massive Thirring Model. In the light-cone regularized picture, this expectation value is related to 2-point functions of lattice spin operators being located at neighboring sites of the lattice. The operator \\overline{Ψ}Ψ is proportional to the trace of the stress-energy tensor. This is why the continuum finite volume expectation values can be computed also from the set of non-linear integral equations (NLIE) governing the finite volume spectrum of the theory. Our results for the expectation values coming from the computation of lattice correlators agree with those of the NLIE computations. Previous conjectures for the LeClair-Mussardo-type series representation of the expectation values are also checked.

  15. Predicting Success in an Online Course Using Expectancies, Values, and Typical Mode of Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zimmerman, Whitney Alicia

    2017-01-01

    Expectancies of success and values were used to predict success in an online undergraduate-level introductory statistics course. Students who identified as primarily face-to-face learners were compared to students who identified as primarily online learners. Expectancy value theory served as a model. Expectancies of success were operationalized as…

  16. Separate Populations of Neurons in Ventral Striatum Encode Value and Motivation

    PubMed Central

    Gentry, Ronny N.; Goldstein, Brandon L.; Hearn, Taylor N.; Barnett, Brian R.; Kashtelyan, Vadim; Roesch, Matthew R.

    2013-01-01

    Neurons in the ventral striatum (VS) fire to cues that predict differently valued rewards. It is unclear whether this activity represents the value associated with the expected reward or the level of motivation induced by reward anticipation. To distinguish between the two, we trained rats on a task in which we varied value independently from motivation by manipulating the size of the reward expected on correct trials and the threat of punishment expected upon errors. We found that separate populations of neurons in VS encode expected value and motivation. PMID:23724077

  17. Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

    2017-07-01

    With low implementation of cost-effective health technologies being a problem in many health systems, it is worth considering the potential effects of research on implementation at the time of health technology assessment. Meaningful and realistic implementation estimates must be of dynamic nature. To extend existing methods for assessing the value of research studies in terms of both reduction of uncertainty and improvement in implementation by considering diffusion based on expert beliefs with and without further research conditional on the strength of evidence. We use expected value of sample information and expected value of specific implementation measure concepts accounting for the effects of specific research studies on implementation and the reduction of uncertainty. Diffusion theory and elicitation of expert beliefs about the shape of diffusion curves inform implementation dynamics. We illustrate use of the resulting dynamic expected value of research in a preterm birth screening technology and results are compared with those from a static analysis. Allowing for diffusion based on expert beliefs had a significant impact on the expected value of research in the case study, suggesting that mistakes are made where static implementation levels are assumed. Incorporating the effects of research on implementation resulted in an increase in the expected value of research compared to the expected value of sample information alone. Assessing the expected value of research in reducing uncertainty and improving implementation dynamics has the potential to complement currently used analyses in health technology assessments, especially in recommendations for further research. The combination of expected value of research, diffusion theory, and elicitation described in this article is an important addition to the existing methods of health technology assessment.

  18. Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

  19. Value of information in natural resource management: technical developments and application to pink-footed geese

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2015-01-01

    The “value of information” (VOI) is a generic term for the increase in value resulting from better information to guide management, or alternatively, the value foregone under uncertainty about the impacts of management (Yokota and Thompson, Medical Decision Making 2004;24: 287). The value of information can be characterized in terms of several metrics, including the expected value of perfect information and the expected value of partial information. We extend the technical framework for the value of information by further developing the relationship between value metrics for partial and perfect information and describing patterns of their performance. We use two different expressions for the expected value of partial information to highlight its relationship to the expected value of perfect information. We also develop the expected value of partial information for hierarchical uncertainties. We highlight patterns in the value of information for the Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus), a population that is subject to uncertainty in both reproduction and survival functions. The framework for valuing information is seen as having widespread potential in resource decision making, and serves as a motivation for resource monitoring, assessment, and collaboration.

  20. Understanding Students' Motivation in Sport and Physical Education: From the Expectancy-Value Model and Self-Efficacy Theory Perspectives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gao, Zan; Lee, Amelia M.; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the roles of individuals' expectancy beliefs and incentives (i.e., task value, outcome expectancy) in sport and physical education are examined from expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory perspectives. Overviews of the two theoretical frameworks and the conceptual and measurement issues are provided, followed by a review…

  1. Effects of expected-value information and display format on recognition of aircraft subsystem abnormalities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Palmer, Michael T.; Abbott, Kathy H.

    1994-01-01

    This study identifies improved methods to present system parameter information for detecting abnormal conditions and to identify system status. Two workstation experiments were conducted. The first experiment determined if including expected-value-range information in traditional parameter display formats affected subject performance. The second experiment determined if using a nontraditional parameter display format, which presented relative deviation from expected value, was better than traditional formats with expected-value ranges included. The inclusion of expected-value-range information onto traditional parameter formats was found to have essentially no effect. However, subjective results indicated support for including this information. The nontraditional column deviation parameter display format resulted in significantly fewer errors compared with traditional formats with expected-value-ranges included. In addition, error rates for the column deviation parameter display format remained stable as the scenario complexity increased, whereas error rates for the traditional parameter display formats with expected-value ranges increased. Subjective results also indicated that the subjects preferred this new format and thought that their performance was better with it. The column deviation parameter display format is recommended for display applications that require rapid recognition of out-of-tolerance conditions, especially for a large number of parameters.

  2. Participation motives in physical education: an expectancy-value approach.

    PubMed

    Goudas, Marios; Dermitzaki, Irini

    2004-12-01

    This study applied an expectancy-value approach in examining participation motives of students in physical education. As predicted outcome expectancy, a variable formed by the combination of outcome value and outcome likelihood correlated significantly higher with motivational indices than these two factors.

  3. Using the Expectancy-Value Theory of Motivation to Predict Behavioral and Emotional Risk among High School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dever, Bridget V.

    2016-01-01

    Within the expectancy-value framework, much work has been done linking expectancies and task values to academic outcomes such as performance, persistence, and choice. Research on the associations between student motivation (including efficacy and task values) and behavioral and emotional problems, however, is nascent. The present study examined a…

  4. 43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

  5. 43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

  6. 43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

  7. Why Contextual Preference Reversals Maximize Expected Value

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Contextual preference reversals occur when a preference for one option over another is reversed by the addition of further options. It has been argued that the occurrence of preference reversals in human behavior shows that people violate the axioms of rational choice and that people are not, therefore, expected value maximizers. In contrast, we demonstrate that if a person is only able to make noisy calculations of expected value and noisy observations of the ordinal relations among option features, then the expected value maximizing choice is influenced by the addition of new options and does give rise to apparent preference reversals. We explore the implications of expected value maximizing choice, conditioned on noisy observations, for a range of contextual preference reversal types—including attraction, compromise, similarity, and phantom effects. These preference reversal types have played a key role in the development of models of human choice. We conclude that experiments demonstrating contextual preference reversals are not evidence for irrationality. They are, however, a consequence of expected value maximization given noisy observations. PMID:27337391

  8. More Value through Greater Differentiation: Gender Differences in Value Beliefs about Math

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaspard, Hanna; Dicke, Anna-Lena; Flunger, Barbara; Schreier, Brigitte; Häfner, Isabelle; Trautwein, Ulrich; Nagengast, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983) is a prominent approach to explaining gender differences in math-related academic choices, with value beliefs acting as an important explanatory factor. Expectancy-value theory defines 4 value components: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, and cost. The present study followed up on…

  9. Expectations and Values of University Students in Transition: Evidence from an Australian Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearson, Cecil A. L.; Chatterjee, Samir R.

    2004-01-01

    Reforms in the functioning and purpose of higher education during the past 2 decades have created profound changes in the expectations and values of university students worldwide. Indeed, the values of entrepreneurship, vocational relevance, and commercial success have considerably displaced the traditional expectations of knowledge acquisition…

  10. College Students' Motivation toward Weight Training: An Application of Expectancy-Value Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping

    2008-01-01

    Guided by an expectancy-value model of achievement choice (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), the relationships among expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values (importance, interest, and usefulness), and achievement outcomes (intention, engagement, and performance) were examined in a college-level beginning weight training…

  11. Content Specificity of Expectancy Beliefs and Task Values in Elementary Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Ang; Martin, Robert; Ennis, Catherine D.; Sun, Haichun

    2008-01-01

    The curriculum may superimpose a content-specific context that mediates motivation (Bong, 2001). This study examined content specificity of the expectancy-value motivation in elementary school physical education. Students' expectancy beliefs and perceived task values from a cardiorespiratory fitness unit, a muscular fitness unit, and a traditional…

  12. Adolescent Expectancy-Value Motivation, Achievement in Physical Education, and Physical Activity Participation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhu, Xihe; Chen, Ang

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the relation between adolescent expectancy-value motivation, achievements, and after-school physical activity participation. Adolescents (N = 854) from 12 middle schools completed an expectancy-value motivation questionnaire, pre and posttests in psychomotor skill and health-related fitness knowledge tests, and a three-day…

  13. Scalar field vacuum expectation value induced by gravitational wave background

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Preston; McDougall, Patrick; Ragsdale, Michael; Singleton, Douglas

    2018-06-01

    We show that a massless scalar field in a gravitational wave background can develop a non-zero vacuum expectation value. We draw comparisons to the generation of a non-zero vacuum expectation value for a scalar field in the Higgs mechanism and with the dynamical Casimir vacuum. We propose that this vacuum expectation value, generated by a gravitational wave, can be connected with particle production from gravitational waves and may have consequences for the early Universe where scalar fields are thought to play an important role.

  14. Achievement, Motivation, and Educational Choices: A Longitudinal Study of Expectancy and Value Using a Multiplicative Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guo, Jiesi; Parker, Philip D.; Marsh, Herbert W.; Morin, Alexandre J. S.

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on the expectancy-value model, the present study explored individual and gender differences in university entry and selection of educational pathway (e.g., science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [STEM] course selection). In particular, we examined the multiplicative effects of expectancy and task values on educational outcomes…

  15. Adolescent Expectancy-Value Motivation and Learning: A Disconnected Case in Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhu, Xihe; Chen, Ang

    2010-01-01

    This study reports adolescent expectancy-value motivation, and its relation to fitness knowledge and psychomotor skill learning in physical education. Students (N = 854) from 12 middle schools provided data on expectancy-value motivation, fitness knowledge and psychomotor skill learning. Results from dependent t-test and MANOVA indicated that 8th…

  16. Expectancy-Value and Cognitive Process Outcomes in Mathematics Learning: A Structural Equation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phan, Huy P.

    2014-01-01

    Existing research has yielded evidence to indicate that the expectancy-value theoretical model predicts students' learning in various achievement contexts. Achievement values and self-efficacy expectations, for example, have been found to exert positive effects on cognitive process and academic achievement outcomes. We tested a conceptual model…

  17. Children's Perceived Cost for Exercise: Application of an Expectancy-Value Paradigm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiang, Evelyn S.; Byrd, Sandra P.; Molin, Ashley J.

    2011-01-01

    Expectancy-value models of motivation have been applied to understanding children's choices in areas such as academics and sports. Here, an expectancy-value paradigm is applied to exercising (defined as engaging in physical activity). The notion of perceived cost is highlighted in particular. Two hundred twenty children in third, fourth, and fifth…

  18. Ninth Graders' Energy Balance Knowledge and Physical Activity Behavior: An Expectancy-Value Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Senlin; Chen, Ang

    2012-01-01

    Expectancy beliefs and task values are two essential motivators in physical education. This study was designed to identify the relation between the expectancy-value constructs (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995) and high school students' physical activity behavior as associated with their energy balance knowledge. High school students (N = 195) in two…

  19. Measurement Invariance of Expectancy-Value Questionnaire in Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhu, Xihe; Sun, Haichun; Chen, Ang; Ennis, Catherine

    2012-01-01

    Expectancy-Value Questionnaire (EVQ) measures student expectancy beliefs and task values of the domain content (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995). In this study the authors examine measurement invariance of EVQ in the domain of physical education between elementary and middle-school students. Participants included 811 students (3rd-5th grades) from 13…

  20. Adolescents' Expectancies for Success and Achievement Task Values during the Middle and High School Years.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wigfield, Allan; Tonks, Stephen

    This chapter discusses the development of achievement motivation during adolescence from the perspective of expectancy-value theory, and explains how adolescents' expectancies for success and achievement values change during adolescence, particularly during educational transitions such as that from elementary to middle school and from middle to…

  1. Cost Perception and the Expectancy-Value Model of Achievement Motivation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Patricia N.

    The expectancy-value model of achievement motivation, first described by J. Atkinson (1957) and refined by J. Eccles and her colleagues (1983, 1992, 1994) predicts achievement motivation based on expectancy for success and perceived task value. Cost has been explored very little. To explore the possibility that cost is different from expectancy…

  2. Expectancy-Value and Children's Science Achievement: Parents Matter

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Julie A.; Strunk, Kamden K.

    2017-01-01

    This longitudinal study explored the ways parents' and teachers' expectancy for success influences 3rd-5th children's expectancy for success and achievement in science. Guided by an open-systems perspective and functional (Ballantine & Roberts, 2007) and expectancy-value (Eccles, 2005, 2007) theories, we focused on school related socialization…

  3. Expectancy-value theory in persistence of learning effects in schizophrenia: role of task value and perceived competency.

    PubMed

    Choi, Jimmy; Fiszdon, Joanna M; Medalia, Alice

    2010-09-01

    Expectancy-value theory, a widely accepted model of motivation, posits that expectations of success on a learning task and the individual value placed on the task are central determinants of motivation to learn. This is supported by research in healthy controls suggesting that beliefs of self-and-content mastery can be so influential they can predict the degree of improvement on challenging cognitive tasks even more so than general cognitive ability. We examined components of expectancy-value theory (perceived competency and task value), along with baseline arithmetic performance and neuropsychological performance, as possible predictors of learning outcome in a sample of 70 outpatients with schizophrenia randomized to 1 of 2 different arithmetic learning conditions and followed up after 3 months. Results indicated that as with nonpsychiatric samples, perceived self-competency for the learning task was significantly related to perceptions of task value attributed to the learning task. Baseline expectations of success predicted persistence of learning on the task at 3-month follow-up, even after accounting for variance attributable to different arithmetic instruction, baseline arithmetic ability, attention, and self-reports of task interest and task value. We also found that expectation of success is a malleable construct, with posttraining improvements persisting at follow-up. These findings support the notion that expectancy-value theory is operative in schizophrenia. Thus, similar to the nonpsychiatric population, treatment benefits may be enhanced and better maintained if remediation programs also focus on perceptions of self-competency for the training tasks. Treatment issues related to instilling self-efficacy in cognitive recovery programs are discussed.

  4. Motivational beliefs, values, and goals.

    PubMed

    Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Wigfield, Allan

    2002-01-01

    This chapter reviews the recent research on motivation, beliefs, values, and goals, focusing on developmental and educational psychology. The authors divide the chapter into four major sections: theories focused on expectancies for success (self-efficacy theory and control theory), theories focused on task value (theories focused on intrinsic motivation, self-determination, flow, interest, and goals), theories that integrate expectancies and values (attribution theory, the expectancy-value models of Eccles et al., Feather, and Heckhausen, and self-worth theory), and theories integrating motivation and cognition (social cognitive theories of self-regulation and motivation, the work by Winne & Marx, Borkowski et al., Pintrich et al., and theories of motivation and volition). The authors end the chapter with a discussion of how to integrate theories of self-regulation and expectancy-value models of motivation and suggest new directions for future research.

  5. A Personal Value-Based Model of College Students' Aptitudes and Expected Choice Behavior Regarding Retailing Careers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shim, Soyeon; Warrington, Patti; Goldsberry, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    A study of 754 retail management students developed a value-based model of career attitude and expected choice behavior. Findings indicate that personal values had an influence on all aspects of retail career attitudes, which then had a direct effect on expected choice behavior. (Contains 55 references.) (Author/JOW)

  6. Is Recess an Achievement Context? An Application of Expectancy-Value Theory to Playground Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spencer-Cavaliere, Nancy; Dunn, Janice Causgrove; Watkinson, E. Jane

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the application of an expectancy-value model to children's activity choices on the playground at recess. The purpose was to test the prediction that expectancies for success and subjective task values are related to decisions to engage in specific recess activities such as climbing, playing soccer, or skipping rope.…

  7. Frame of Reference Effects on Values in Mathematics: Evidence from German Secondary School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cambria, Jenna; Brandt, Holger; Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2017-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation identifies two classes of beliefs that are important predictors of educational choices and achievement: expectancies and values. It is well known that high achieving peers can have a negative impact on self-concept and other measures of expected success: holding individual achievement constant,…

  8. Predicting who will major in a science discipline: Expectancy-value theory as part of an ecological model for studying academic communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sullins, Ellen S.; Hernandez, Delia; Fuller, Carol; Shiro Tashiro, Jay

    Research on factors that shape recruitment and retention in undergraduate science majors currently is highly fragmented and in need of an integrative research framework. Such a framework should incorporate analyses of the various levels of organization that characterize academic communities (i.e., the broad institutional level, the departmental level, and the student level), and should also provide ways to study the interactions occurring within and between these structural levels. We propose that academic communities are analogous to ecosystems, and that the research paradigms of modern community ecology can provide the necessary framework, as well as new and innovative approaches to a very complex area. This article also presents the results of a pilot study that demonstrates the promise of this approach at the student level. We administered a questionnaire based on expectancy-value theory to undergraduates enrolled in introductory biology courses. Itself an integrative approach, expectancy-value theory views achievement-related behavior as a joint function of the person's expectancy of success in the behavior and the subjective value placed on such success. Our results indicated: (a) significant gender differences in the underlying factor structures of expectations and values related to the discipline of biology, (b) expectancy-value factors significantly distinguished biology majors from nonmajors, and (c) expectancy-value factors significantly predicted students' intent to enroll in future biology courses. We explore the expectancy-value framework as an operationally integrative framework in our ecological model for studying academic communities, especially in the context of assessing the underrepresentation of women and minorities in the sciences. Future research directions as well as practical implications are also discussed.

  9. Maternity care: a narrative overview of what women expect across their care continuum.

    PubMed

    Clark, Kim; Beatty, Shelley; Reibel, Tracy

    2015-04-01

    to provide a narrative overview of the values schema underpinning women׳s expectations of public maternity-care services using an episodes-of-care framework. focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews were undertaken with Western Australian women who had opted for public maternity care to determine the values schema apparent in their expectations of their care. public maternity-care services in metropolitan (i.e. Armadale, Osborne Park and Rockingham) and regional (i.e. Broome, Geraldton, Bunbury) Western Australia. women interviewed were found to have consistent values schema underpinning their maternity-care expectations and evaluations. the current study suggests that while women׳s choices and experiences of maternity care may differ on a range of dimensions, the values schema underlying their care expectations and subsequent evaluations are similar. The study findings resonate with past Australian research regarding women׳s expectations of public maternity care, but complement it by providing a coherent narrative of core underpinning stage-specific values schema. These may assist maternity-care policy makers, practitioners and researchers seeking to better understand and comprehensively respond to women׳s maternity-care expectations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. 26 CFR 1.170A-12 - Valuation of a remainder interest in real property for contributions made after July 31, 1969.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... expected useful life of 45 years, at the end of which time it is expected to have a value of $10,000, and... is $50,000 (the value of the house ($60,000) less its expected value at the end of 45 years ($10,000... section. If the remainder interest that has been contributed follows a term for years, the value of the...

  11. 26 CFR 1.170A-12 - Valuation of a remainder interest in real property for contributions made after July 31, 1969.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... expected useful life of 45 years, at the end of which time it is expected to have a value of $10,000, and... is $50,000 (the value of the house ($60,000) less its expected value at the end of 45 years ($10,000... section. If the remainder interest that has been contributed follows a term for years, the value of the...

  12. Investigating and improving student understanding of the expectation values of observables in quantum mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshman, Emily; Singh, Chandralekha

    2017-07-01

    The expectation value of an observable is an important concept in quantum mechanics since measurement outcomes are, in general, probabilistic and we only have information about the probability distribution of measurement outcomes in a given quantum state of a system. However, we find that upper-level undergraduate and PhD students in physics have both conceptual and procedural difficulties when determining the expectation value of a physical observable in a given quantum state in terms of the eigenstates and eigenvalues of the corresponding operator, especially when using Dirac notation. Here we first describe the difficulties that these students have with determining the expectation value of an observable in Dirac notation. We then discuss how the difficulties found via student responses to written surveys and individual interviews were used as a guide in the development of a quantum interactive learning tutorial (QuILT) to help students develop a good grasp of the expectation value. The QuILT strives to help students integrate conceptual understanding and procedural skills to develop a coherent understanding of the expectation value. We discuss the effectiveness of the QuILT in helping students learn this concept from in-class evaluations.

  13. A Practical Measure of Student Motivation: Establishing Validity Evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost Scale in Middle School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosovich, Jeff J.; Hulleman, Chris S.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Getty, Steve

    2015-01-01

    We present validity evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost (EVC) Scale of student motivation. Using a brief, 10-item scale, we measured middle school students' expectancy, value, and cost for their math and science classes in the Fall and Winter of the same academic year. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the three-factor structure of the EVC…

  14. Evaluation of non-animal methods for assessing skin sensitisation hazard: A Bayesian Value-of-Information analysis.

    PubMed

    Leontaridou, Maria; Gabbert, Silke; Van Ierland, Ekko C; Worth, Andrew P; Landsiedel, Robert

    2016-07-01

    This paper offers a Bayesian Value-of-Information (VOI) analysis for guiding the development of non-animal testing strategies, balancing information gains from testing with the expected social gains and costs from the adoption of regulatory decisions. Testing is assumed to have value, if, and only if, the information revealed from testing triggers a welfare-improving decision on the use (or non-use) of a substance. As an illustration, our VOI model is applied to a set of five individual non-animal prediction methods used for skin sensitisation hazard assessment, seven battery combinations of these methods, and 236 sequential 2-test and 3-test strategies. Their expected values are quantified and compared to the expected value of the local lymph node assay (LLNA) as the animal method. We find that battery and sequential combinations of non-animal prediction methods reveal a significantly higher expected value than the LLNA. This holds for the entire range of prior beliefs. Furthermore, our results illustrate that the testing strategy with the highest expected value does not necessarily have to follow the order of key events in the sensitisation adverse outcome pathway (AOP). 2016 FRAME.

  15. Do High-Ability Students Disidentify with Science? A Descriptive Study of U.S. Ninth Graders in 2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andersen, Lori; Chen, Jason A.

    2016-01-01

    The present study describes science expectancy-value motivation classes within a nationally representative sample of students who were U.S. ninth graders in 2009. An expectancy-value model was the basis for science-specific profile indicators (self-efficacy, attainment value, utility value, interest-enjoyment value). Using exploratory latent class…

  16. Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Katelyn M; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E

    2017-01-01

    There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning.

  17. Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Katelyn M.; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E.

    2017-01-01

    There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning. PMID:28861130

  18. Hamiltonian approach to Ehrenfest expectation values and Gaussian quantum states

    PubMed Central

    Bonet-Luz, Esther

    2016-01-01

    The dynamics of quantum expectation values is considered in a geometric setting. First, expectation values of the canonical observables are shown to be equivariant momentum maps for the action of the Heisenberg group on quantum states. Then, the Hamiltonian structure of Ehrenfest’s theorem is shown to be Lie–Poisson for a semidirect-product Lie group, named the Ehrenfest group. The underlying Poisson structure produces classical and quantum mechanics as special limit cases. In addition, quantum dynamics is expressed in the frame of the expectation values, in which the latter undergo canonical Hamiltonian motion. In the case of Gaussian states, expectation values dynamics couples to second-order moments, which also enjoy a momentum map structure. Eventually, Gaussian states are shown to possess a Lie–Poisson structure associated with another semidirect-product group, which is called the Jacobi group. This structure produces the energy-conserving variant of a class of Gaussian moment models that have previously appeared in the chemical physics literature. PMID:27279764

  19. Impaired Expected Value Computations Coupled With Overreliance on Stimulus-Response Learning in Schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Hernaus, Dennis; Gold, James M; Waltz, James A; Frank, Michael J

    2018-04-03

    While many have emphasized impaired reward prediction error signaling in schizophrenia, multiple studies suggest that some decision-making deficits may arise from overreliance on stimulus-response systems together with a compromised ability to represent expected value. Guided by computational frameworks, we formulated and tested two scenarios in which maladaptive representations of expected value should be most evident, thereby delineating conditions that may evoke decision-making impairments in schizophrenia. In a modified reinforcement learning paradigm, 42 medicated people with schizophrenia and 36 healthy volunteers learned to select the most frequently rewarded option in a 75-25 pair: once when presented with a more deterministic (90-10) pair and once when presented with a more probabilistic (60-40) pair. Novel and old combinations of choice options were presented in a subsequent transfer phase. Computational modeling was employed to elucidate contributions from stimulus-response systems (actor-critic) and expected value (Q-learning). People with schizophrenia showed robust performance impairments with increasing value difference between two competing options, which strongly correlated with decreased contributions from expected value-based learning (Q-learning). Moreover, a subtle yet consistent contextual choice bias for the probabilistic 75 option was present in people with schizophrenia, which could be accounted for by a context-dependent reward prediction error in the actor-critic. We provide evidence that decision-making impairments in schizophrenia increase monotonically with demands placed on expected value computations. A contextual choice bias is consistent with overreliance on stimulus-response learning, which may signify a deficit secondary to the maladaptive representation of expected value. These results shed new light on conditions under which decision-making impairments may arise. Copyright © 2018 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Comparing multistate expected damages, option price and cumulative prospect measures for valuing flood protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farrow, Scott; Scott, Michael

    2013-05-01

    Floods are risky events ranging from small to catastrophic. Although expected flood damages are frequently used for economic policy analysis, alternative measures such as option price (OP) and cumulative prospect value exist. The empirical magnitude of these measures whose theoretical preference is ambiguous is investigated using case study data from Baltimore City. The outcome for the base case OP measure increases mean willingness to pay over the expected damage value by about 3%, a value which is increased with greater risk aversion, reduced by increased wealth, and only slightly altered by higher limits of integration. The base measure based on cumulative prospect theory is about 46% less than expected damages with estimates declining when alternative parameters are used. The method of aggregation is shown to be important in the cumulative prospect case which can lead to an estimate up to 41% larger than expected damages. Expected damages remain a plausible and the most easily computed measure for analysts.

  1. Attitudes and values expected of public health nursing students at graduation: A delphi study.

    PubMed

    Okura, Mika; Takizawa, Hiroko

    2018-06-01

    The skills and knowledge of the competencies expected of public health nursing (PHN) students at graduation have been clarified; however, the attitudes and values have not yet been studied in Japan. The objective of this study was to identify and reach a consensus among experts on the attitudes and values expected of PHN students at graduation. This survey was conducted as a two-stage Delphi study. We selected the following experts: 248 teachers in the faculty of public health nursing at a university as academic experts, and 250 public health nurses who were also experienced clinical instructors as clinical experts. The round 1 mailed survey was conducted using a questionnaire about the necessity and importance of attitudes and values, and 211 experts responded (42.4%, clinical; n = 124, academic; n = 87). In the Round 2 survey, the experts consisted of 60.2% of the round 1 participants (clinical; n = 73, academic; n = 54). Descriptive statistics were used for multiple imputation. We identified a total of 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, and reached ≥90% consensus for most items (except for one). Regarding the expected achievement level at graduation, there was no difference between clinical and academic experts except for one item. Consensus was clearly achieved for 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, as well as importance and expected achievement level at graduation. In the future, it is important to examine strategies that can effectively develop these attitudes and values through basic and continuous education. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The Correlation between Gifted Students' Cost and Task Value Perceptions towards Mathematics: The Mediating Role of Expectancy Belief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurnaz, Ahmet

    2018-01-01

    In this study whether the expectancy belief has a mediating role in the correlation between cost value perception and task value perception of gifted students towards mathematics was examined. It is predicted that the correlation between cost value and task value perceptions of gifted students towards mathematics can change according to their…

  3. Expectancy beliefs and perceived values of Chinese college students in physical education and physical activity.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ang; Liu, Xinlan

    2008-03-01

    The expectancy-value theory postulates that motivation relies on individuals' beliefs of success, perceived Attainment, Intrinsic Interest, and Utility values and Cost. This study examined Chinese college students' expectancy-value motivation in relation to physical education and self-initiated physical activity. A random sample of 368 Chinese university students responded to questionnaires on perceived expectancy beliefs, perceived values, and cost in terms of their experiences in mandatory physical education programs and in self-initiated after-school physical activity. They reported their choice decisions for continuing physical education. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, X2, logistic and linear regressions. The physical education curriculum was perceived as a major cost to motivation. Motivated by the Intrinsic Interest and Utility value, most students chose to continue to take physical education. Self-initiated after-school physical activity was motivated by the Attainment value only. No association was found between self-initiated physical activity and Liking or Disliking of physical education. Motivation for physical education and for self-initiated physical activity derived from different perceived values. The Attainment value motivates the students for self-initiated physical activity, whereas Intrinsic Interest and Utility values motivate them to choose to continue physical education.

  4. Risk-dependent reward value signal in human prefrontal cortex

    PubMed Central

    Tobler, Philippe N.; Christopoulos, George I.; O'Doherty, John P.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Schultz, Wolfram

    2009-01-01

    When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the expected value and risk of each option, and choose the one with the higher utility. Expected value increases the expected utility of an option for all individuals. Risk increases the utility of an option for risk-seeking individuals, but decreases it for risk averse individuals. In 2 separate experiments, one involving imperative (no-choice), the other choice situations, we investigated how predicted risk and expected value aggregate into a common reward signal in the human brain. Blood oxygen level dependent responses in lateral regions of the prefrontal cortex increased monotonically with increasing reward value in the absence of risk in both experiments. Risk enhanced these responses in risk-seeking participants, but reduced them in risk-averse participants. The aggregate value and risk responses in lateral prefrontal cortex contrasted with pure value signals independent of risk in the striatum. These results demonstrate an aggregate risk and value signal in the prefrontal cortex that would be compatible with basic assumptions underlying the mean-variance approach to utility. PMID:19369207

  5. Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

    PubMed Central

    Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

    2016-01-01

    Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1–10 points with the goal being to maximize their score on a later memory test. Half of the participants were told to expect a recognition test after each list, while the other half were told to expect a recall test. After several lists of receiving tests congruent with expectations, participants studying for a recognition test instead received an unexpected recall test. In Experiment 1, participants who had studied for a recognition test recalled less of the valuable information than participants anticipating the recall format. These participants continued to attend less to item value on future (expected) recall tests than participants who had only ever experienced recall testing. When the recognition tests were made more demanding in Experiment 2, value-based recall improved relative to Experiment 1: though memory for the valuable information remained superior when participants studied with the expectation of having to recall the information, there were no longer significant differences after accounting for recall testing experience. Thus, recall-based testing encouraged strategic, value-based encoding and enhanced retrieval of important information, while recognition testing in some cases limited value-based study and memory. These results extend prior work concerning the impact of testing expectations on memory, offering further insight into how people study important information. PMID:28095010

  6. Establishing values-based leadership and value systems in healthcare organizations.

    PubMed

    Graber, David R; Kilpatrick, Anne Osborne

    2008-01-01

    The importance of values in organizations is often discussed in management literature. Possessing strong or inspiring values is increasingly considered to be a key quality of successful leaders. Another common theme is that organizational values contribute to the culture and ultimate success of organizations. These conceptions or expectations are clearly applicable to healthcare organizations in the United States. However, healthcare organizations have unique structures and are subject to societal expectations that must be accommodated within an organizational values system. This article describes theoretical literature on organizational values. Cultural and religious influences on Americans and how they may influence expectations from healthcare providers are discussed. Organizational cultures and the training and socialization of the numerous professional groups in healthcare also add to the considerable heterogeneity of value systems within healthcare organizations. These contribute to another challenge confronting healthcare managers--competing or conflicting values within a unit or the entire organization. Organizations often fail to reward members who uphold or enact the organization's values, which can lead to lack of motivation and commitment to the organization. Four key elements of values-based leadership are presented for healthcare managers who seek to develop as values-based leaders. 1) Recognize your personal and professional values, 2) Determine what you expect from the larger organization and what you can implement within your sphere of influence, 3) Understand and incorporate the values of internal stakeholders, and 4) Commit to values-based leadership.

  7. Cultural Mistrust, Academic Outcome Expectations, and Outcome Values among African American Adolescent Men

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Irving, Miles Anthony; Hudley, Cynthia

    2005-01-01

    This study measured the relationship between outcome expectations, outcome value, and cultural mistrust among African American male high school students (N = 75) attending an urban, Southern California school. We hypothesized that a negative perception of the dominant culture would negatively affect academic outcome expectations and academic…

  8. Active inference and epistemic value.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms.

  9. An expectancy-value model of emotion regulation: implications for motivation, emotional experience, and decision making.

    PubMed

    Tamir, Maya; Bigman, Yochanan E; Rhodes, Emily; Salerno, James; Schreier, Jenna

    2015-02-01

    According to expectancy-value models of self-regulation, people are motivated to act in ways they expect to be useful to them. For instance, people are motivated to run when they believe running is useful, even when they have nothing to run away from. Similarly, we propose an expectancy-value model of emotion regulation, according to which people are motivated to emote in ways they expect to be useful to them, regardless of immediate contextual demands. For instance, people may be motivated to get angry when they believe anger is useful, even when there is nothing to be angry about. In 5 studies, we demonstrate that leading people to expect an emotion to be useful increased their motivation to experience that emotion (Studies 1-5), led them to up-regulate the experience of that emotion (Studies 3-4), and led to emotion-consistent behavior (Study 4). Our hypotheses were supported when we manipulated the expected value of anxiety (Study 1) and anger (Studies 2-5), both consciously (Studies 1-4) and unconsciously (Study 5). We discuss the theoretical and pragmatic implications of the proposed model. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  10. Math-related career aspirations and choices within Eccles et al.'s expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors.

    PubMed

    Lauermann, Fani; Tsai, Yi-Miau; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

    2017-08-01

    Which occupation to pursue is one of the more consequential decisions people make and represents a key developmental task. Yet the underlying developmental processes associated with either individual or group differences in occupational choices are still not well understood. This study contributes toward filling this gap, focusing in particular on the math domain. We examined two aspects of Eccles et al.'s (1983) expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors: (a) the reciprocal associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs and adolescents' career plans and (b) the multiplicative association between expectancies and values in predicting occupational outcomes in the math domain. Our analyses indicate that adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math and their math- or science-related career plans reported at the beginning and end of high school predict each other over time, with the exception of intrinsic interest in math. Furthermore, multiplicative associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math predict math-related career attainment approximately 15 years after graduation from high school. Gender differences emerged regarding career-related beliefs and career attainment, with male students being more likely than female to both pursue and attain math-related careers. These gender differences could not be explained by differences in beliefs about math as an academic subject. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Motivational Constructs Influencing Undergraduate Students' Choices to become Classroom Music Teachers or Music Performers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parkes, Kelly A.; Jones, Brett D.

    2012-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to examine whether any of the six motivational constructs in the expectancy-value model of motivation (i.e., expectancy, ability perceptions, intrinsic interest value, attainment value, social utility value, and cost) would predict whether students intended to have a career teaching classroom music or…

  12. Context-sensitivity of the feedback-related negativity for zero-value feedback outcomes.

    PubMed

    Pfabigan, Daniela M; Seidel, Eva-Maria; Paul, Katharina; Grahl, Arvina; Sailer, Uta; Lanzenberger, Rupert; Windischberger, Christian; Lamm, Claus

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated whether the same visual stimulus indicating zero-value feedback (€0) elicits feedback-related negativity (FRN) variation, depending on whether the outcomes correspond with expectations or not. Thirty-one volunteers performed a monetary incentive delay (MID) task while EEG was recorded. FRN amplitudes were comparable and more negative when zero-value outcome deviated from expectations than with expected gain or loss, supporting theories emphasising the impact of unexpectedness and salience on FRN amplitudes. Surprisingly, expected zero-value outcomes elicited the most negative FRNs. However, source localisation showed that such outcomes evoked less activation in cingulate areas than unexpected zero-value outcomes. Our study illustrates the context dependency of identical zero-value feedback stimuli. Moreover, the results indicate that the incentive cues in the MID task evoke different reward prediction error signals. These prediction signals differ in FRN amplitude and neuronal sources, and have to be considered in the design and interpretation of future studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Expected value information improves financial risk taking across the adult life span.

    PubMed

    Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Wagner, Anthony D; Knutson, Brian

    2011-04-01

    When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.

  14. Adults' Learning Motivation: Expectancy of Success, Value, and the Role of Affective Memories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorges, Julia; Kandler, Christian

    2012-01-01

    The present study tested the applicability of expectancy-value theory to adults' learning motivation. Motivation was measured as the anticipated reaction (AR) of German students (N = 300) to receiving their instructions in English as a new learning opportunity. We used structural equation modeling to test our hypotheses. Expectancies of success…

  15. Quantum corrections in thermal states of fermions on anti-de Sitter space-time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ambruş, Victor E.; Winstanley, Elizabeth

    2017-12-01

    We study the energy density and pressure of a relativistic thermal gas of massless fermions on four-dimensional Minkowski and anti-de Sitter space-times using relativistic kinetic theory. The corresponding quantum field theory quantities are given by components of the renormalized expectation value of the stress-energy tensor operator acting on a thermal state. On Minkowski space-time, the renormalized vacuum expectation value of the stress-energy tensor is by definition zero, while on anti-de Sitter space-time the vacuum contribution to this expectation value is in general nonzero. We compare the properties of the vacuum and thermal expectation values of the energy density and pressure for massless fermions and discuss the circumstances in which the thermal contribution dominates over the vacuum one.

  16. Motivational Deficits in Schizophrenia and the Representation of Expected Value

    PubMed Central

    Waltz, James A.; Gold, James M.

    2016-01-01

    Motivational deficits (avolition and anhedonia) have historically been considered important negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Numerous studies have attempted to identify the neural substrates of avolition and anhedonia in schizophrenia, but these studies have not produced much agreement. Deficits in various aspects of reinforcement processing have been observed in individuals with schizophrenia, but it is not exactly clear which of these deficits actually engender motivational impairments in SZ. The purpose of this chapter is to examine how various reinforcement-related behavioral and neural signals could contribute to motivational impairments in both schizophrenia, and psychiatric illness, in general. In particular, we describe different aspects of the concept of expected value (EV), such as the distinction between the EV of stimuli and the expected value of actions, the acquisition of value vs. the estimation of value, and the discounting of value as a consequence of time or effort required. We conclude that avolition and anhedonia in SZ are most commonly tied to aberrant signals for expected value, in the context of learning. We discuss implications for further research on the neural substrates of motivational impairments in psychiatric illness. PMID:26370946

  17. Motivational deficit in childhood depression and hyperactivity.

    PubMed

    Layne, C; Berry, E

    1983-07-01

    A recent theory states that the immediate cause of adult depression is low motivation, where motivation is the multiplicative product of a person's expectation for a reward times his value for that reward. The present experiment supported the extension of this theory to childhood depression. The expectations, values, and motivations of three groups of children (Ns = 18; mean ages = 10) were measured: A depressed group and a hyperactive control group were selected from a population of clinically disturbed children, while normal controls were selected from regular classrooms. As predicted, the depressed children exhibited reduced motivation, primarily because their expectations were pessimistic. Unexpected findings were that the depressives' expectations were not abnormally irrational; and that hyperactives exhibited optimistic expectations, inflated values, and, hence, inflated motivation--especially for tangible rewards. Cognitive therapy techniques that focus upon expectations were recommended for the treatment of both depressed and hyperactive children.

  18. Intergenerational Patterns of Values and Autonomy Expectations in Cultures of Relatedness and Separatedness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Sunita Mahtani; Bond, Michael Harris; Deeds, Osvelia; Chung, Siu Fung

    1999-01-01

    Investigated value priorities and autonomy expectations in 59 pairs of Caucasian and 66 pairs of Asian teenagers and their mothers in Hong Kong. Findings support models that predict persistent family interdependence despite adoption of many individualist values in modernizing collectivist cultures. (SLD)

  19. 42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

  20. 42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

  1. 42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

  2. 42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

  3. Expectancy of Success, Subjective Task-Value, and Message Frame in the Appraisal of Value-Promoting Messages Made Prior to a High-Stakes Examination

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Putwain, David W.; Symes, Wendy

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has examined how subjective task-value and expectancy of success influence the appraisal of value-promoting messages used by teachers prior to high-stakes examinations. The aim of this study was to examine whether message-frame (gain or loss-framed messages) also influences the appraisal of value-promoting messages. Two hundred…

  4. Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper; Williams, Byron K.

    2014-01-01

    We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value of only 3.0%. This value represents the difference between the best that could be expected if the most appropriate model were known and the best that could be expected in the face of model uncertainty. The value of eliminating uncertainty about the survival process was substantially higher than that associated with the reproductive process, which is consistent with evidence that variation in survival is more important than variation in reproduction in relatively long-lived avian species. Comparing the expected objective value if the most appropriate model were known with that of the maxi–min robust strategy, we found the value of eliminating uncertainty to be an expected increase of 6.2% in objective value. This result underscores the conservatism of the maxi–min rule and suggests that risk-neutral managers would prefer the optimal strategy that maximizes expected value, which is also the strategy that is expected to minimize the maximum loss (i.e., a strategy based on equal model weights). The low value of information calculated for pink-footed geese suggests that a robust strategy (i.e., one in which no learning is anticipated) could be as nearly effective as an adaptive one (i.e., a strategy in which the relative credibility of models is assessed through time). Of course, an alternative explanation for the low value of information is that the set of population models we considered was too narrow to represent key uncertainties in population dynamics. Yet we know that questions about the presence of density dependence must be central to the development of a sustainable harvest strategy. And while there are potentially many environmental covariates that could help explain variation in survival or reproduction, our admission of models in which vital rates are drawn randomly from reasonable distributions represents a worst-case scenario for management. We suspect that much of the value of the various harvest strategies we calculated is derived from the fact that they are state dependent, such that appropriate harvest rates depend on population abundance and weather conditions, as well as our focus on an infinite time horizon for sustainability.

  5. Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

    PubMed

    Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

    2017-06-01

    Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

  6. Examining the Feasibility and Utility of Estimating Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (via a Nonparametric Approach) as Part of the Reimbursement Decision-Making Process in Ireland: Application to Drugs for Cancer.

    PubMed

    McCullagh, Laura; Schmitz, Susanne; Barry, Michael; Walsh, Cathal

    2017-11-01

    In Ireland, all new drugs for which reimbursement by the healthcare payer is sought undergo a health technology assessment by the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics. The National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics estimate expected value of perfect information but not partial expected value of perfect information (owing to computational expense associated with typical methodologies). The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility and utility of estimating partial expected value of perfect information via a computationally efficient, non-parametric regression approach. This was a retrospective analysis of evaluations on drugs for cancer that had been submitted to the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics (January 2010 to December 2014 inclusive). Drugs were excluded if cost effective at the submitted price. Drugs were excluded if concerns existed regarding the validity of the applicants' submission or if cost-effectiveness model functionality did not allow required modifications to be made. For each included drug (n = 14), value of information was estimated at the final reimbursement price, at a threshold equivalent to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at that price. The expected value of perfect information was estimated from probabilistic analysis. Partial expected value of perfect information was estimated via a non-parametric approach. Input parameters with a population value at least €1 million were identified as potential targets for research. All partial estimates were determined within minutes. Thirty parameters (across nine models) each had a value of at least €1 million. These were categorised. Collectively, survival analysis parameters were valued at €19.32 million, health state utility parameters at €15.81 million and parameters associated with the cost of treating adverse effects at €6.64 million. Those associated with drug acquisition costs and with the cost of care were valued at €6.51 million and €5.71 million, respectively. This research demonstrates that the estimation of partial expected value of perfect information via this computationally inexpensive approach could be considered feasible as part of the health technology assessment process for reimbursement purposes within the Irish healthcare system. It might be a useful tool in prioritising future research to decrease decision uncertainty.

  7. Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs

    PubMed Central

    Doménech-Betoret, Fernando; Abellán-Roselló, Laura; Gómez-Artiga, Amparo

    2017-01-01

    Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy–achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy) played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy–achievement and efficacy–course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed. PMID:28769839

  8. Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs.

    PubMed

    Doménech-Betoret, Fernando; Abellán-Roselló, Laura; Gómez-Artiga, Amparo

    2017-01-01

    Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy-achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy) played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy-achievement and efficacy-course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed.

  9. Optimal no-go theorem on hidden-variable predictions of effect expectations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blass, Andreas; Gurevich, Yuri

    2018-03-01

    No-go theorems prove that, under reasonable assumptions, classical hidden-variable theories cannot reproduce the predictions of quantum mechanics. Traditional no-go theorems proved that hidden-variable theories cannot predict correctly the values of observables. Recent expectation no-go theorems prove that hidden-variable theories cannot predict the expectations of observables. We prove the strongest expectation-focused no-go theorem to date. It is optimal in the sense that the natural weakenings of the assumptions and the natural strengthenings of the conclusion make the theorem fail. The literature on expectation no-go theorems strongly suggests that the expectation-focused approach is more general than the value-focused one. We establish that the expectation approach is not more general.

  10. Value of information analysis optimizing future trial design from a pilot study on catheter securement devices.

    PubMed

    Tuffaha, Haitham W; Reynolds, Heather; Gordon, Louisa G; Rickard, Claire M; Scuffham, Paul A

    2014-12-01

    Value of information analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the standard hypothesis testing approach, which is based on type I and type II errors, in determining sample sizes for randomized clinical trials. However, in addition to sample size calculation, value of information analysis can optimize other aspects of research design such as possible comparator arms and alternative follow-up times, by considering trial designs that maximize the expected net benefit of research, which is the difference between the expected cost of the trial and the expected value of additional information. To apply value of information methods to the results of a pilot study on catheter securement devices to determine the optimal design of a future larger clinical trial. An economic evaluation was performed using data from a multi-arm randomized controlled pilot study comparing the efficacy of four types of catheter securement devices: standard polyurethane, tissue adhesive, bordered polyurethane and sutureless securement device. Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation was used to characterize uncertainty surrounding the study results and to calculate the expected value of additional information. To guide the optimal future trial design, the expected costs and benefits of the alternative trial designs were estimated and compared. Analysis of the value of further information indicated that a randomized controlled trial on catheter securement devices is potentially worthwhile. Among the possible designs for the future trial, a four-arm study with 220 patients/arm would provide the highest expected net benefit corresponding to 130% return-on-investment. The initially considered design of 388 patients/arm, based on hypothesis testing calculations, would provide lower net benefit with return-on-investment of 79%. Cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses were based on the data from a single pilot trial which might affect the accuracy of our uncertainty estimation. Another limitation was that different follow-up durations for the larger trial were not evaluated. The value of information approach allows efficient trial design by maximizing the expected net benefit of additional research. This approach should be considered early in the design of randomized clinical trials. © The Author(s) 2014.

  11. Expected net present value of sample information: from burden to investment.

    PubMed

    Hall, Peter S; Edlin, Richard; Kharroubi, Samer; Gregory, Walter; McCabe, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    The Expected Value of Information Framework has been proposed as a method for identifying when health care technologies should be immediately reimbursed and when any reimbursement should be withheld while awaiting more evidence. This framework assesses the value of obtaining additional evidence to inform a current reimbursement decision. This represents the burden of not having the additional evidence at the time of the decision. However, when deciding whether to reimburse now or await more evidence, decision makers need to know the value of investing in more research to inform a future decision. Assessing this value requires consideration of research costs, research time, and what happens to patients while the research is undertaken and after completion. The investigators describe a development of the calculation of the expected value of sample information that assesses the value of investing in further research, including an only-in-research strategy and an only-with-research strategy.

  12. Reference-dependent risk sensitivity as rational inference.

    PubMed

    Denrell, Jerker C

    2015-07-01

    Existing explanations of reference-dependent risk sensitivity attribute it to cognitive imperfections and heuristic choice processes. This article shows that behavior consistent with an S-shaped value function could be an implication of rational inferences about the expected values of alternatives. Theoretically, I demonstrate that even a risk-neutral Bayesian decision maker, who is uncertain about the reliability of observations, should use variability in observed outcomes as a predictor of low expected value for outcomes above a reference level, and as a predictor of high expected value for outcomes below a reference level. Empirically, I show that combining past outcomes using an S-shaped value function leads to accurate predictions about future values. The theory also offers a rationale for why risk sensitivity consistent with an inverse S-shaped value function should occur in experiments on decisions from experience with binary payoff distributions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Variation in the days supply field for osteoporosis medications in Ontario.

    PubMed

    Burden, Andrea M; Huang, Anjie; Tadrous, Mina; Cadarette, Suzanne M

    2013-01-01

    We examined pharmacy claims for osteoporosis medications dispensed in the community (78 %) and long-term care (LTC) to determine if days supply values matched expected dosing intervals. Results identify potential reporting errors that can have implications for drug exposure misclassification, particularly in LTC where only 59 % of reported values matched expected values. The days supply field is commonly used to examine patterns of drug utilization and classify drug exposure, yet its accuracy has received little attention. We sought to describe the days supply reported for osteoporosis drugs and examine if values matched expected therapeutic dosing intervals. We examined days supply values for osteoporosis medications submitted to the Ontario Drug Benefits program for seniors, 1997-2011. Days supply values were evaluated by dosing regimen and setting (community or long-term care [LTC]) and compared to pre-defined expected values. We defined expected days supply by the therapeutic dosing interval: daily in 7- or 30-day intervals, or as 100 days; weekly in 7- or 30-day intervals; monthly and daily nasal spray in 28- or 30-day intervals; and cyclical etidronate as a 90-day supply. We identified 17,615,404 osteoporosis prescriptions, with 78 % dispensed in the community. Most daily oral prescriptions were dispensed by an expected therapeutic dosing interval (97 %). Annual IV zoledronic acid was most commonly dispensed as a 1-day supply (62 %). Distinct differences in agreement were observed for other regimens, with the expected days supply more commonly reported in community versus LTC: cyclical etidronate (86 % vs. 40 %), weekly (91 % vs. 60 %), monthly (94 % vs. 35 %), and nasal spray (84 % vs. 40 %). Results suggest that inaccuracies in the days supply field exist, particularly among prescriptions dispensed in LTC. Inaccurate reporting may have significant implications for osteoporosis drug exposure misclassification.

  14. Calculation of Expectation Values of Operators in the Complex Scaling Method

    DOE PAGES

    Papadimitriou, G.

    2016-06-14

    In the complex scaling method (CSM) provides with a way to obtain resonance parameters of particle unstable states by rotating the coordinates and momenta of the original Hamiltonian. It is convenient to use an L 2 integrable basis to resolve the complex rotated or complex scaled Hamiltonian H θ , with θ being the angle of rotation in the complex energy plane. Within the CSM, resonance and scattering solutions have fall-off asymptotics. Furthermore, one of the consequences is that, expectation values of operators in a resonance or scattering complex scaled solution are calculated by complex rotating the operators. In thismore » work we are exploring applications of the CSM on calculations of expectation values of quantum mechanical operators by using the regularized backrotation technique and calculating hence the expectation value using the unrotated operator. Moreover, the test cases involve a schematic two-body Gaussian model and also applications using realistic interactions.« less

  15. Toward {U}(N|M) knot invariant from ABJM theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eynard, Bertrand; Kimura, Taro

    2017-06-01

    We study {U}(N|M) character expectation value with the supermatrix Chern-Simons theory, known as the ABJM matrix model, with emphasis on its connection to the knot invariant. This average just gives the half-BPS circular Wilson loop expectation value in ABJM theory, which shall correspond to the unknot invariant. We derive the determinantal formula, which gives {U}(N|M) character expectation values in terms of {U}(1|1) averages for a particular type of character representations. This means that the {U}(1|1) character expectation value is a building block for the {U}(N|M) averages and also, by an appropriate limit, for the {U}(N) invariants. In addition to the original model, we introduce another supermatrix model obtained through the symplectic transform, which is motivated by the torus knot Chern-Simons matrix model. We obtain the Rosso-Jones-type formula and the spectral curve for this case.

  16. Estimating investment returns from growing red pine.

    Treesearch

    Allen L. Lundgren

    1966-01-01

    This paper describes how to estimate present values of incomes and costs in growing red pine trees for sale as cordwood or sawtimber, and how to calculate expectation values and rates of return for a wide range of timber-growing conditions, using the tables of expectation value indexes and interest rate multipliers provided. It illustrates how to compare investment...

  17. Economic values for growth and grade changes of sugar maple in the Lake States.

    Treesearch

    Richard M. Godman; Joseph J. Mendel

    1978-01-01

    Current and expected rates of value increase over a 10-year period were developed for sawtimber-size sugar maple based on variable growth rates, expected merchantable height changes, and butt log grade improvement. These economic guides, along with silvicultural considerations, provide a value basis for selecting trees during thinning and determining final harvest...

  18. Modeling the Test-Taking Motivation Construct through Investigation of Psychometric Properties of an Expectancy-Value-Based Questionnaire

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knekta, Eva; Eklöf, Hanna

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of an expectancy-value-based questionnaire measuring five aspects of test-taking motivation (effort, expectancies, importance, interest, and test anxiety). The questionnaire was distributed to a sample of Swedish Grade 9 students taking a low-stakes (n = 1,047) or a high-stakes (n =…

  19. Children's perceived cost for exercise: application of an expectancy-value paradigm.

    PubMed

    Chiang, Evelyn S; Byrd, Sandra P; Molin, Ashley J

    2011-04-01

    Expectancy-value models of motivation have been applied to understanding children's choices in areas such as academics and sports. Here, an expectancy-value paradigm is applied to exercising (defined as engaging in physical activity). The notion of perceived cost is highlighted in particular. Two hundred twenty children in third, fourth, and fifth grades were surveyed on their competence beliefs, perceived importance, interest, and perceived cost of being physically active. Results indicated that perceived cost is empirically distinct from competence beliefs and other types of value, that perceived cost is marginally related to children's self-reported level of physical activity, and children's beliefs and other values are related to their self-reported level of physical activity. Children's perceptions of cost vary depending on grade and gender. Interventions based on these findings are proposed.

  20. Extended space expectation values of position related operators for hydrogen-like quantum system evolutions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kalay, Berfin; Demiralp, Metin

    2014-10-06

    The expectation value definitions over an extended space from the considered Hilbert space of the system under consideration is given in another paper of the second author in this symposium. There, in that paper, the conceptuality rather than specification is emphasized on. This work uses that conceptuality to investigate the time evolutions of the position related operators' expectation values not in its standard meaning but rather in a new version of the definition over not the original Hilbert space but in the space obtained by extensions via introducing the images of the given initial wave packet under the positive integermore » powers of the system Hamiltonian. These images may not be residing in the same space of the initial wave packet when certain singularities appear in the structure of the system Hamiltonian. This may break down the existence of the integrals in the definitions of the expectation values. The cure is the use of basis functions in the abovementioned extended space and the sandwiching of the target operator whose expectation value is under questioning by an appropriately chosen operator guaranteeing the existence of the relevant integrals. Work specifically focuses on the hydrogen-like quantum systems whose Hamiltonians contain a polar singularity at the origin.« less

  1. The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play.

    PubMed

    Kempton, Thomas; Kennedy, Nicholas; Coutts, Aaron J

    2016-01-01

    This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010-2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition's goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team's own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.

  2. Valuing Trial Designs from a Pharmaceutical Perspective Using Value-Based Pricing.

    PubMed

    Breeze, Penny; Brennan, Alan

    2015-11-01

    Our aim was to adapt the traditional framework for expected net benefit of sampling (ENBS) to be more compatible with drug development trials from the pharmaceutical perspective. We modify the traditional framework for conducting ENBS and assume that the price of the drug is conditional on the trial outcomes. We use a value-based pricing (VBP) criterion to determine price conditional on trial data using Bayesian updating of cost-effectiveness (CE) model parameters. We assume that there is a threshold price below which the company would not market the new intervention. We present a case study in which a phase III trial sample size and trial duration are varied. For each trial design, we sampled 10,000 trial outcomes and estimated VBP using a CE model. The expected commercial net benefit is calculated as the expected profits minus the trial costs. A clinical trial with shorter follow-up, and larger sample size, generated the greatest expected commercial net benefit. Increasing the duration of follow-up had a modest impact on profit forecasts. Expected net benefit of sampling can be adapted to value clinical trials in the pharmaceutical industry to optimise the expected commercial net benefit. However, the analyses can be very time consuming for complex CE models. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

    PubMed

    D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-12-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

  4. Ability Beliefs, Task Value, and Performance as a Function of Race in a Dart-Throwing Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gao, Zan; Kosma, Maria; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

    2009-01-01

    This study examines differences in self-efficacy, expectancy-related beliefs, task value, and performance in a dart-throwing task as a function of race among diverse college students using the expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory. It also examines the predictive contributions of these beliefs on task performance within each racial…

  5. Why Do Children Worry about Their Academic Achievement? An Expectancy-Value Perspective on Elementary Students' Worries about Their Mathematics and Reading Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lauermann, Fani; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.; Pekrun, Reinhard

    2017-01-01

    Children's worrying about their academic performance has profound implications for their learning and wellbeing in school. Understanding the contextual and psychological antecedents of students' worry thus represents an important area of research. Drawing on Eccles and colleagues' expectancy-value theory and Pekrun's control-value theory and using…

  6. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Özdemir, Semra Bayat; Demiralp, Metin

    The determination of the energy states is highly studied issue in the quantum mechanics. Based on expectation values dynamics, energy states can be observed. But conditions and calculations vary depending on the created system. In this work, a symmetric exponential anharmonic oscillator is considered and development of a recursive approximation method is studied to find its ground energy state. The use of majorant values facilitates the approximate calculation of expectation values.

  7. Decomposing cross-country differences in quality adjusted life expectancy: the impact of value sets.

    PubMed

    Heijink, Richard; van Baal, Pieter; Oppe, Mark; Koolman, Xander; Westert, Gert

    2011-06-23

    The validity, reliability and cross-country comparability of summary measures of population health (SMPH) have been persistently debated. In this debate, the measurement and valuation of nonfatal health outcomes have been defined as key issues. Our goal was to quantify and decompose international differences in health expectancy based on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We focused on the impact of value set choice on cross-country variation. We calculated Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE) at age 20 for 15 countries in which EQ-5D population surveys had been conducted. We applied the Sullivan approach to combine the EQ-5D based HRQoL data with life tables from the Human Mortality Database. Mean HRQoL by country-gender-age was estimated using a parametric model. We used nonparametric bootstrap techniques to compute confidence intervals. QALE was then compared across the six country-specific time trade-off value sets that were available. Finally, three counterfactual estimates were generated in order to assess the contribution of mortality, health states and health-state values to cross-country differences in QALE. QALE at age 20 ranged from 33 years in Armenia to almost 61 years in Japan, using the UK value set. The value sets of the other five countries generated different estimates, up to seven years higher. The relative impact of choosing a different value set differed across country-gender strata between 2% and 20%. In 50% of the country-gender strata the ranking changed by two or more positions across value sets. The decomposition demonstrated a varying impact of health states, health-state values, and mortality on QALE differences across countries. The choice of the value set in SMPH may seriously affect cross-country comparisons of health expectancy, even across populations of similar levels of wealth and education. In our opinion, it is essential to get more insight into the drivers of differences in health-state values across populations. This will enhance the usefulness of health-expectancy measures.

  8. Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment

    PubMed Central

    Bor, Jacob; Herbst, Abraham J; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

    2013-01-01

    The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years – an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors. PMID:23430655

  9. Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain.

    PubMed

    Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

    2014-01-28

    Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain.

  10. Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain

    PubMed Central

    Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

    2014-01-01

    Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain. PMID:24474790

  11. Dynamical Typicality Approach to Eigenstate Thermalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reimann, Peter

    2018-06-01

    We consider the set of all initial states within a microcanonical energy shell of an isolated many-body quantum system, which exhibit an arbitrary but fixed nonequilibrium expectation value for some given observable A . On the condition that this set is not too small, it is shown by means of a dynamical typicality approach that most such initial states exhibit thermalization if and only if A satisfies the so-called weak eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (wETH). Here, thermalization means that the expectation value of A spends most of its time close to the microcanonical value after initial transients have died out. The wETH means that, within the energy shell, most eigenstates of the pertinent system Hamiltonian exhibit very similar expectation values of A .

  12. VA-Index: Quantifying Assortativity Patterns in Networks with Multidimensional Nodal Attributes (Open Access)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-01-27

    bias of the estimator U, bias(U), the difference between this estimator’s expected value and the true value of the parameter being estimated, i.e...biasðUÞ ¼ EðU yÞ ¼ EðUÞ y ð9Þ Based on the above definition, an unbiased estimator is one whose expected value is equal to the true value being...equal to 0.94 (p- value < 0.05), if we con- sider the pure ER network model as our baseline, and 0.31 (p- value < 0.05), if we control for the home

  13. Mental models of adherence: parallels in perceptions, values, and expectations in adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and other personal regimens.

    PubMed

    Rizzo, Jon; Bell, Alexandra

    2018-05-09

    A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which strongly influences behaviors. This study explored orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and how they related to mental models of adherence to other types of personal regimens. The study followed an interpretive description qualitative design. Data were collected via two semi-structured interviews. Interview One focused on participants prior experiences adhering to personal regimens. Interview Two focused on experiences adhering to their current prescribed home exercise program. Data analysis followed a constant comparative method. Findings revealed similarity in perceptions, values, and expectations that informed individuals mental models of adherence to personal regimens and prescribed home exercise programs. Perceived realized results, expected results, perceived social supports, and value of convenience characterized mental models of adherence. Parallels between mental models of adherence for prescribed home exercise and other personal regimens suggest that patients adherence behavior to prescribed routines may be influenced by adherence experiences in other aspects of their lives. By gaining insight into patients adherence experiences, values, and expectations across life domains, clinicians may tailor supports that enhance home exercise adherence. Implications for Rehabilitation A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which is based on prior experiences and strongly influences behaviors. This study demonstrated similarity in orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and adherence to personal regimens in other aspects of their lives. Physical therapists should inquire about patients non-medical adherence experiences, as strategies patients customarily use to adhere to other activities may inform strategies to promote prescribed home exercise adherence.

  14. Assertiveness expectancies: how hard people push depends on the consequences they predict.

    PubMed

    Ames, Daniel R

    2008-12-01

    The present article seeks to explain varying levels of assertiveness in interpersonal conflict and negotiations with assertiveness expectancies, idiosyncratic predictions people make about the social and instrumental consequences of assertive behavior. This account complements motivation-based models of assertiveness and competitiveness, suggesting that individuals may possess the same social values (e.g., concern for relationships) but show dramatically different assertiveness due to different assumptions about behavioral consequences. Results clarify the form of assertiveness expectancies, namely that most people assume increasing assertiveness can yield positive social and instrumental benefits up to a point, beyond which benefits decline. However, people vary in how assertive this perceived optimal point is. These individual differences in expectancies are linked in 4 studies to assertiveness, including self-reported assertiveness, rated behavioral preferences in assorted interpersonal conflict scenarios, partner ratings of participants' behavior in a face-to-face dyadic negotiation, and work colleague ratings of participants' assertiveness in the workplace. In each case, the link between expectancies and behavior remained after controlling for values. The results suggest a place for expectancies alongside values in psychological models of interpersonal assertiveness.

  15. Fertility in The Netherlands as an expected value process and developmental readiness.

    PubMed

    Taris, T W

    1998-01-01

    In this 2-wave panel study, the decision to have children was examined in the context of Feather's (1982) expectancy-value model among a representative sample of 288 childless Dutch adults aged 18-30 years. The effects of 2 indicators of developmental readiness (age and duration of relationship) were also explored. It was expected that (a) the likelihood of having a baby would increase as a function of intentions, evaluations of being childless, and expected rewards of having children and (b) developmental readiness would be positively related to whether respondents had children at the 2nd wave of the study. Structural equation modeling was used. The results largely supported expectations. Developmental readiness affected fertility both directly and indirectly via the expected rewards of having children.

  16. Expected value analysis for integrated supplier selection and inventory control of multi-product inventory system with fuzzy cost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutrisno, Widowati, Tjahjana, R. Heru

    2017-12-01

    The future cost in many industrial problem is obviously uncertain. Then a mathematical analysis for a problem with uncertain cost is needed. In this article, we deals with the fuzzy expected value analysis to solve an integrated supplier selection and supplier selection problem with uncertain cost where the costs uncertainty is approached by a fuzzy variable. We formulate the mathematical model of the problems fuzzy expected value based quadratic optimization with total cost objective function and solve it by using expected value based fuzzy programming. From the numerical examples result performed by the authors, the supplier selection problem was solved i.e. the optimal supplier was selected for each time period where the optimal product volume of all product that should be purchased from each supplier for each time period was determined and the product stock level was controlled as decided by the authors i.e. it was followed the given reference level.

  17. Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

    PubMed

    Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

    2017-06-01

    In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

  18. Effects of Client Expectation for Counseling Success, Client-Counselor Worldview Match, and Client Adherence to Asian and European American Cultural Values on Counseling Process with Asian Americans

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Bryan S. K.; Ng, Gladys F.; Ahn, Annie J.

    2005-01-01

    After assessing their expectation for counseling success, adherence to Asian cultural values, and adherence to European American cultural values, 88 Asian American volunteer clients with personal concerns engaged in single-session counseling with 1 of 11 female counselors who either matched or mismatched the client's worldview. Clients in the…

  19. Reliability Engineering Handbook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1964-06-01

    Figure 6-18(a). The Chi-Square (X 2) Test compares the observed values against the Expected Am = 1 A = &. 0002 ) expected values in the tables. 5C 5...9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441 1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 . 9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545 1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608

  20. Learner-Valued Interactions: Research into Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ley, Kathryn; Gannon-Cook, Ruth

    2014-01-01

    Online learners provide feedback that does not always match with the expectations of what university administration would expect from their feedback. Learners do not value all instructional features and conditions equally, nor do they view many of the instructional and technology features as being necessarily helpful. This paper presents research…

  1. Career Expectations and Perceptions of Part-Time MBA Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fish, Lynn A.; Fish, Lauren A.

    2010-01-01

    In the U.S., part-time MBA students regard work/life balance as the critical factor that drives career expectations and perceptions. Job aspects and benefits/compensation closely follow in importance, while employee relations are valued less. Within work/life balance, students value job location, travel time, and telecommuting. Promotional…

  2. Job Preferences in the Anticipatory Socialization Phase: A Comparison of Two Matching Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moss, Mira K.; Frieze, Irene Hanson

    1993-01-01

    Responses from 86 business administration graduate students tested (1) a model matching self-concept to development of job preferences and (2) an expectancy-value model. Both models significantly predicted job preferences; a higher proportion of variance was explained by the expectancy-value model. (SK)

  3. Fourth Graders' Motivation in an Elementary Physical Education Running Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron E.; Bruene, April

    2004-01-01

    In this study we examined students' motivation in an elementary physical education running program using achievement goal theory and an expectancy-value model of achievement choice as theoretical frameworks. Fourth graders (N = 119) completed questionnaires assessing their achievement goals, expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and…

  4. Charting the Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model from Mothers' Beliefs in Childhood to Youths' Activities in Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpkins, Sandra D.; Fredricks, Jennifer A.; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.

    2012-01-01

    The Eccles' expectancy-value model posits that a cascade of mechanisms explain associations between parents' beliefs and youths' achievement-related behaviors. Specifically, parents' beliefs predict parents' behaviors; in turn, parents' behaviors predict youths' motivational beliefs, and youths' motivational beliefs predict their behaviors. This…

  5. Exploring Adolescent Motivations for Pursuing Maths-Related Careers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watt, Helen M. G.

    2005-01-01

    Adolescents from grade 9 in Sydney Australia (N = 60) were interviewed regarding why they would or would not consider pursuing maths-related careers. Open-ended interview data explored the comprehensiveness of explanations within the Expectancy-Value framework. The Expectancy-Value model is the major motivational framework for explaining students'…

  6. Perturbative test of exact vacuum expectation values of local fields in affine Toda theories

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ahn, Changrim; Baseilhac, P.; Kim, Chanju

    Vacuum expectation values of local fields for all dual pairs of nonsimply laced affine Toda field theories recently proposed are checked against perturbative analysis. The computations based on Feynman diagram expansion are performed up to the two-loop level. We obtain, good agreement.

  7. Negotiating Academic Values, Professorial Responsibilities and Expectations for Accountability in Today's University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Luanna H.

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that it is reasonable to expect the professoriate, including full professors, to balance traditional academic values with external demands for accountability. Today's universities are characterised by increasing diversity, wider access to higher education, decreasing funding and greater oversight through quality assurance:…

  8. Value and probability coding in a feedback-based learning task utilizing food rewards.

    PubMed

    Tricomi, Elizabeth; Lempert, Karolina M

    2015-01-01

    For the consequences of our actions to guide behavior, the brain must represent different types of outcome-related information. For example, an outcome can be construed as negative because an expected reward was not delivered or because an outcome of low value was delivered. Thus behavioral consequences can differ in terms of the information they provide about outcome probability and value. We investigated the role of the striatum in processing probability-based and value-based negative feedback by training participants to associate cues with food rewards and then employing a selective satiety procedure to devalue one food outcome. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined brain activity related to receipt of expected rewards, receipt of devalued outcomes, omission of expected rewards, omission of devalued outcomes, and expected omissions of an outcome. Nucleus accumbens activation was greater for rewarding outcomes than devalued outcomes, but activity in this region did not correlate with the probability of reward receipt. Activation of the right caudate and putamen, however, was largest in response to rewarding outcomes relative to expected omissions of reward. The dorsal striatum (caudate and putamen) at the time of feedback also showed a parametric increase correlating with the trialwise probability of reward receipt. Our results suggest that the ventral striatum is sensitive to the motivational relevance, or subjective value, of the outcome, while the dorsal striatum codes for a more complex signal that incorporates reward probability. Value and probability information may be integrated in the dorsal striatum, to facilitate action planning and allocation of effort. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  9. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1986-01-01

    Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  10. Linear canonical transformations of coherent and squeezed states in the Wigner phase space. II - Quantitative analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Han, D.; Kim, Y. S.; Noz, Marilyn E.

    1989-01-01

    It is possible to calculate expectation values and transition probabilities from the Wigner phase-space distribution function. Based on the canonical transformation properties of the Wigner function, an algorithm is developed for calculating these quantities in quantum optics for coherent and squeezed states. It is shown that the expectation value of a dynamical variable can be written in terms of its vacuum expectation value of the canonically transformed variable. Parallel-axis theorems are established for the photon number and its variant. It is also shown that the transition probability between two squeezed states can be reduced to that of the transition from one squeezed state to vacuum.

  11. Extended space expectation values in quantum dynamical system evolutions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Demiralp, Metin

    2014-10-06

    The time variant power series expansion for the expectation value of a given quantum dynamical operator is well-known and well-investigated issue in quantum dynamics. However, depending on the operator and Hamiltonian singularities this expansion either may not exist or may not converge for all time instances except the beginning of the evolution. This work focuses on this issue and seeks certain cures for the negativities. We work in the extended space obtained by adding all images of the initial wave function under the system Hamiltonian’s positive integer powers. This requires the introduction of certain appropriately defined weight operators. The resultingmore » better convergence in the temporal power series urges us to call the new defined entities “extended space expectation values” even though they are constructed over certain weight operators and are somehow pseudo expectation values.« less

  12. Expectancy-related changes in firing of dopamine neurons depend on orbitofrontal cortex.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuji K; Roesch, Matthew R; Wilson, Robert C; Toreson, Kathy; O'Donnell, Patricio; Niv, Yael; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

    2011-10-30

    The orbitofrontal cortex has been hypothesized to carry information regarding the value of expected rewards. Such information is essential for associative learning, which relies on comparisons between expected and obtained reward for generating instructive error signals. These error signals are thought to be conveyed by dopamine neurons. To test whether orbitofrontal cortex contributes to these error signals, we recorded from dopamine neurons in orbitofrontal-lesioned rats performing a reward learning task. Lesions caused marked changes in dopaminergic error signaling. However, the effect of lesions was not consistent with a simple loss of information regarding expected value. Instead, without orbitofrontal input, dopaminergic error signals failed to reflect internal information about the impending response that distinguished externally similar states leading to differently valued future rewards. These results are consistent with current conceptualizations of orbitofrontal cortex as supporting model-based behavior and suggest an unexpected role for this information in dopaminergic error signaling.

  13. Mathematical modelling of risk reduction in reinsurance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balashov, R. B.; Kryanev, A. V.; Sliva, D. E.

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a mathematical model of efficient portfolio formation in the reinsurance markets. The presented approach provides the optimal ratio between the expected value of return and the risk of yield values below a certain level. The uncertainty in the return values is conditioned by use of expert evaluations and preliminary calculations, which result in expected return values and the corresponding risk levels. The proposed method allows for implementation of computationally simple schemes and algorithms for numerical calculation of the numerical structure of the efficient portfolios of reinsurance contracts of a given insurance company.

  14. A cross-cultural perspective of parental influence on female adolescents' achievement beliefs and behaviors in sport and school domains.

    PubMed

    Bhalla, Jennifer A; Weiss, Maureen R

    2010-12-01

    Little is known about parental socialization processes for youth participants from different cultural backgrounds. The purpose of this study was to examine parental influence on self-perceptions, task values, and achievement behaviors among female adolescents from two cultures using Eccles' expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Twelve Anglo Canadian and nine East Indian female adolescents were interviewed about perceptions of parental influence on expectancy-value constructs for sport and academic domains. Inductive and deductive content analyses were performed to identify lower and higher order themes from interview responses. Similarities and differences in perceived parental influence emerged for girls of both cultural groups and in both domains. Our findings support links among expectancy-value constructs and highlight cultural variations in parental socialization of achievement cognitions and behaviors in multiple domains.

  15. Fluctuations in the inflationary universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawking, S. W.; Moss, I. G.

    1983-08-01

    In the usual treatment of the inflationary universe, it is assumed that the expectation value of some component of the Higgs field develops a non-zero symmetry breaking value Φ0. However, in the models normally considered, the expectation value of Φ will be zero at all times because Φ and -Φ are equally probable. To overcome this difficulty, we calculate the effective action as a function of <Φ2> rather than <Φ>. This also solves the infra-red problem associated with a Coleman-Weinberg condition in de Sitter space. The expectation value of Φ2 grows linearly with time at first and then as (t2 - t-1). The irregularities in the resulting universe are smaller than those predicted by previous authors, though in the case of the standard SU(5) GUT they are still bigger than the limit set by the microwave background.

  16. Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierson, Willard J., Jr.

    1989-01-01

    The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

  17. Motivations of Traditional and Nontraditional College Students: From Self-Determination and Attributions, to Expectancy and Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Marcus Lee; Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Clark, Lauren; Howell, Leah; Breen, Mishele

    2016-01-01

    We surveyed 139 (88 traditional, 51 nontraditional) students on various motivational measures of self-determination, attribution, and expectancy-value to (a) investigate motivational differences by student status and (b) identify the motivational variables that best predict academic achievement by student status. Results of a multivariate analysis…

  18. Physical Activity and Fitness Knowledge Learning in Physical Education: Seeking a Common Ground

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Senlin; Chen, Ang; Sun, Haichun; Zhu, Xihe

    2013-01-01

    Motivation to learn is a disposition developed through exposure to learning opportunities. Guided by the expectancy-value theory of Eccles and Wigfield (1995), this study examined the extent to which expectancy belief and task value influenced elementary school students' physical activity and knowledge learning in physical education (PE).…

  19. Values, Valences, and Course Enrollment: Testing the Role of Personal Values within an Expectancy-Valence Framework.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feather, N. T.

    1988-01-01

    The enrollment decisions of 444 (183 male, 260 female, and 1 unspecified) university students at Flinders University (South Australia) were investigated. Results shed light on gender differences in achievement patterns in mathematics and English and in relation to assumptions about relations between expectations and valences. (TJH)

  20. Understanding Middle School Students' Motivation in Math Class: The Expectancy-Value Model Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yurt, Eyup

    2015-01-01

    One of the most important variables affecting middle school students' mathematics performance is motivation. Motivation is closely related with expectancy belief regarding the task and value attached to the task. Identification of which one or ones of the factors constituting motivation is more closely related to mathematics performance may help…

  1. Locus of Control and Academic Achievement: Integrating Social Learning Theory and Expectancy-Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Youse, Keith Edward

    2012-01-01

    The current study examines predictors of math achievement and college graduation by integrating social learning theory and expectancy-value theory. Data came from a nationally-representative longitudinal database tracking 12,144 students over twelve years from 8th grade forward. Models for math achievement and college graduation were tested…

  2. Rural Adolescents' Reading Motivation, Achievement and Behavior across Transition to High School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cantrell, Susan Chambers; Rintamaa, Margaret; Anderman, Eric M.; Anderman, Lynley H.

    2018-01-01

    The authors examined 1,781 rural students' reading motivation and behavior across the transition from middle to high school. Using expectancy-value theory, they investigated how motivational variables predicted changes in reading behavior and achievement across the transition in terms of their expectancies, values, and out-of-school reading…

  3. Social Influences, School Motivation and Gender Differences: An Application of the Expectancy-Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fan, Weihua

    2011-01-01

    The present study examined the structural relations of social influences, task values, ability beliefs, educational expectation and academic engagement for both boys and girls. The structural equation modelling analyses provided nationally representative evidence of gender differences in: (1) the links from teacher-student relationship and peer…

  4. Expected Values for Pedometer-Determined Physical Activity in Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tudor-Locke, Catrine; McClain, James J.; Hart, Teresa L.; Sisson, Susan B.; Washington, Tracy L.

    2009-01-01

    This review assembles pedometry literature focused on youth, with particular attention to expected values for habitual, school day, physical education class, recess, lunch break, out-of-school, weekend, and vacation activity. From 31 studies published since 1999, we constructed a youth habitual activity step-curve that indicates: (a) from ages 6…

  5. Evaluating gambles using dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, O.; Gell-Mann, M.

    2016-02-01

    Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but their generality limits predictive power. Expectation value maximizers are defined as rational in economics, but expectation values are only meaningful in the presence of ensembles or in systems with ergodic properties, whereas decision-makers have no access to ensembles, and the variables representing wealth in the usual growth models do not have the relevant ergodic properties. Simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of utility and those of expectations, we propose to evaluate gambles by averaging wealth growth over time. No utility function is needed, but a dynamic must be specified to compute time averages. Linear and logarithmic "utility functions" appear as transformations that generate ergodic observables for purely additive and purely multiplicative dynamics, respectively. We highlight inconsistencies throughout the development of decision theory, whose correction clarifies that our perspective is legitimate. These invalidate a commonly cited argument for bounded utility functions.

  6. Economics in “Global Health 2035”: a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

    2017-01-01

    Background In “Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation,” The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well–being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low– and middle–income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. Methods The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. Findings We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Conclusion Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach. PMID:28400950

  7. Covariate analysis of bivariate survival data

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bennett, L.E.

    1992-01-01

    The methods developed are used to analyze the effects of covariates on bivariate survival data when censoring and ties are present. The proposed method provides models for bivariate survival data that include differential covariate effects and censored observations. The proposed models are based on an extension of the univariate Buckley-James estimators which replace censored data points by their expected values, conditional on the censoring time and the covariates. For the bivariate situation, it is necessary to determine the expectation of the failure times for one component conditional on the failure or censoring time of the other component. Two different methodsmore » have been developed to estimate these expectations. In the semiparametric approach these expectations are determined from a modification of Burke's estimate of the bivariate empirical survival function. In the parametric approach censored data points are also replaced by their conditional expected values where the expected values are determined from a specified parametric distribution. The model estimation will be based on the revised data set, comprised of uncensored components and expected values for the censored components. The variance-covariance matrix for the estimated covariate parameters has also been derived for both the semiparametric and parametric methods. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey was analyzed by these methods. The two outcome variables are post-partum amenorrhea and breastfeeding; education and parity were used as the covariates. Both the covariate parameter estimates and the variance-covariance estimates for the semiparametric and parametric models will be compared. In addition, a multivariate test statistic was used in the semiparametric model to examine contrasts. The significance of the statistic was determined from a bootstrap distribution of the test statistic.« less

  8. A preliminary path analysis of expectancy and patient-provider encounter in an open-label randomized controlled trial of spinal manipulation for cervicogenic headache.

    PubMed

    Haas, Mitchell; Aickin, Mikel; Vavrek, Darcy

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this article was to present a preliminary model to identify the effects of expectancy of treatment success and the patient-provider encounter (PPE) on outcomes in an open-label randomized trial. Eighty participants with chronic cervicogenic headache (CGH) were randomized to 4 groups: 2 levels of treatment dose (8 or 16) and 2 levels of therapy from a chiropractor (spinal manipulation or light massage). Providers were instructed to have equal enthusiasm for all care. Structural equation modeling with standardized path coefficients (beta) was used in a path analysis to identify the effects of patient expectancy and the PPE on CGH pain. The model included monthly pain from baseline to 12 weeks. Expectancy and PPE were evaluated on Likert scales. The patient-provider encounter was measured as patient perception of chiropractor enthusiasm, confidence, and comfort with care. Baseline patient expectancy was balanced across groups. The PPE measures were balanced across groups and consistent over the 8-week treatment period. Treatment and baseline pain had the strongest effects on pain outcomes (|beta| = .46-.59). Expectations had little effect on pain (abs value(beta) < .15). The patient-provider encounter had a weak effect on pain (abs value(beta)= .03-.27) and on subsequent confidence in treatment success (abs value(beta)= .09 and .12). Encouraging equipoise in the PPE and balancing expectancy across treatment groups may protect against some confounding related to the absence of blinding in a randomized controlled trial of pain. In this trial, their effects were found to be small relative to the effects of treatment and baseline values. Copyright 2010 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Adjusting Estimates of the Expected Value of Information for Implementation: Theoretical Framework and Practical Application.

    PubMed

    Andronis, Lazaros; Barton, Pelham M

    2016-04-01

    Value of information (VoI) calculations give the expected benefits of decision making under perfect information (EVPI) or sample information (EVSI), typically on the premise that any treatment recommendations made in light of this information will be implemented instantly and fully. This assumption is unlikely to hold in health care; evidence shows that obtaining further information typically leads to "improved" rather than "perfect" implementation. To present a method of calculating the expected value of further research that accounts for the reality of improved implementation. This work extends an existing conceptual framework by introducing additional states of the world regarding information (sample information, in addition to current and perfect information) and implementation (improved implementation, in addition to current and optimal implementation). The extension allows calculating the "implementation-adjusted" EVSI (IA-EVSI), a measure that accounts for different degrees of implementation. Calculations of implementation-adjusted estimates are illustrated under different scenarios through a stylized case study in non-small cell lung cancer. In the particular case study, the population values for EVSI and IA-EVSI were £ 25 million and £ 8 million, respectively; thus, a decision assuming perfect implementation would have overestimated the expected value of research by about £ 17 million. IA-EVSI was driven by the assumed time horizon and, importantly, the specified rate of change in implementation: the higher the rate, the greater the IA-EVSI and the lower the difference between IA-EVSI and EVSI. Traditionally calculated measures of population VoI rely on unrealistic assumptions about implementation. This article provides a simple framework that accounts for improved, rather than perfect, implementation and offers more realistic estimates of the expected value of research. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Algebraic function operator expectation value based quantum eigenstate determination: A case of twisted or bent Hamiltonian, or, a spatially univariate quantum system on a curved space

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Baykara, N. A.

    Recent studies on quantum evolutionary problems in Demiralp’s group have arrived at a stage where the construction of an expectation value formula for a given algebraic function operator depending on only position operator becomes possible. It has also been shown that this formula turns into an algebraic recursion amongst some finite number of consecutive elements in a set of expectation values of an appropriately chosen basis set over the natural number powers of the position operator as long as the function under consideration and the system Hamiltonian are both autonomous. This recursion corresponds to a denumerable infinite number of algebraicmore » equations whose solutions can or can not be obtained analytically. This idea is not completely original. There are many recursive relations amongst the expectation values of the natural number powers of position operator. However, those recursions may not be always efficient to get the system energy values and especially the eigenstate wavefunctions. The present approach is somehow improved and generalized form of those expansions. We focus on this issue for a specific system where the Hamiltonian is defined on the coordinate of a curved space instead of the Cartesian one.« less

  11. Links between adolescents' expected parental reactions and prosocial behavioral tendencies: the mediating role of prosocial values.

    PubMed

    Hardy, Sam A; Carlo, Gustavo; Roesch, Scott C

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine relations between adolescents' social cognitions regarding parenting practices and adolescents' prosocial behavioral tendencies. A mediation model was tested whereby the degree to which adolescents perceived their parents as responding appropriately to their prosocial and antisocial behaviors was hypothesized to predict adolescents' tendencies toward prosocial behavior indirectly by way of adolescents' prosocial values. Adolescents (N = 140; M age = 16.76 years, SD = .80; 64% girls; 91% European Americans) completed measures of prosocial values and of the appropriateness with which they expected their parents to react to their prosocial and antisocial behaviors. In addition, teachers and parents rated the adolescents' tendencies for prosocial behaviors. A structural equation model test showed that the degree to which adolescents expected their parents to respond appropriately to their prosocial behaviors was related positively to their prosocial values, which in turn was positively associated with their tendencies to engage in prosocial behaviors (as reported by parents and teachers). The findings provide evidence for the central role of adolescents' evaluations and expectancies of parental behaviors and of the role of values in predicting prosocial tendencies. Discussion focuses on the implications for moral socialization theories and on the practical implications of these findings in understanding adolescents' prosocial development.

  12. Skill-Related Uncertainty and Expected Value in 5- to 7-Year-Olds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bayless, Sarah; Schlottmann, Anne

    2010-01-01

    Studies using an Information Integration approach have shown that children from four years have a good intuitive understanding of probability and expected value. Experience of skill-related uncertainty may provide one naturalistic opportunity to develop this intuitive understanding. To test the viability of this view, 16 5- and 16 7-year-olds…

  13. Influence of Significant Others on High School Students' Expectancies of Success and Task Value in Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Skip M.; Weiss, Windee

    2018-01-01

    This study examined the perceived influence of significant others' beliefs on students' expectancies of success and task value in physical education (PE). PE students (N = 231) between Grades 9 and 12 participated. Multiple regressions examined the influence of perceived parents', teachers', and classmates' beliefs on students' ability…

  14. Identifying Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs: A Latent Class Analysis Approach to Analyzing Middle School Students' Science Self-Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phelan, Julia; Ing, Marsha; Nylund-Gibson, Karen; Brown, Richard S.

    2017-01-01

    This study extends current research by organizing information about students' expectancy-value achievement motivation, in a way that helps parents and teachers identify specific entry points to encourage and support students' science aspirations. This study uses latent class analysis to describe underlying differences in ability beliefs, task…

  15. Teaching Methods for Modelling Problems and Students' Task-Specific Enjoyment, Value, Interest and Self-Efficacy Expectations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schukajlow, Stanislaw; Leiss, Dominik; Pekrun, Reinhard; Blum, Werner; Muller, Marcel; Messner, Rudolf

    2012-01-01

    In this study which was part of the DISUM-project, 224 ninth graders from 14 German classes from middle track schools (Realschule) were asked about their enjoyment, interest, value and self-efficacy expectations concerning three types of mathematical problems: intra-mathematical problems, word problems and modelling problems. Enjoyment, interest,…

  16. Understanding Female Sport Attrition in a Stereotypical Male Sport within the Framework of Eccles's Expectancy-Value Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guillet, Emma; Sarrazin, Philippe; Fontayne, Paul; Brustad, Robert J.

    2006-01-01

    An empirical research study based upon the expectancy-value model of Eccles and colleagues (1983) investigated the effect of gender-role orientations on psychological dimensions of female athletes' sport participation and the likelihood of their continued participation in a stereotypical masculine activity. The model (Eccles et al., 1983) posits…

  17. Racial Identity, Centrality and Giftedness: An Expectancy-Value Application of Motivation in Gifted African American Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rodgers, Kelly A.

    2008-01-01

    This article explores the interaction between racial and ethnic identity, racial centrality, and giftedness and then uses an expectancy-value motivation model as a framework for understanding how the interplay among racial identity, centrality, and giftedness contributes to the motivation of African American gifted students. The analysis begins by…

  18. The Development of a Mathematics Self-Report Inventory for Turkish Elementary Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Akin, Ayça; Güzeller, Cem Oktay; Evcan, Sinem Sezer

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the current study is to develop a mathematics self-report inventory (MSRI) to measure Turkish elementary students' mathematics expectancy beliefs and task values based on the expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation. In Study-1 (n = 1,315), exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and reliability analysis are used to evaluate the…

  19. Using Expectancy-Value Theory to Explore Aspects of Motivation and Engagement in Inquiry-Based Learning in Primary Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

    2017-01-01

    Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and…

  20. Relationships among Middle School Students' Expectancy Beliefs, Task Values, and Health-Related Fitness Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Han; Sun, Haichun; Dai, Jun; Griffin, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify gender and body weight differences in Chinese adolescents' perceived expectancy value (EV) motivation in their physical education (PE) class. The study also explored the relationship between EV and adolescents' health-related fitness performances. Method: A group of seventh and eighth graders (N =…

  1. The Use of an Expectancy-Value Model in Studying a University's Image. AIR Forum 1982 Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muffo, John A.; Whipple, Thomas W.

    The use of an expectancy-value model, common to consumer marketing studies, in analyzing the market position of Cleveland State University was investigated. Attention was focused on showing how consumer attitude concepts and methodologies can be used in developing a strategic marketing plan. Six populations were identified as groups important to…

  2. A Multivariate Analysis of Personality, Values and Expectations as Correlates of Career Aspirations of Final Year Medical Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Mary E.; Searle, Judy; Creed, Peter A.; Ng, Shu-Kay

    2010-01-01

    This study reports on the career intentions of 179 final year medical students who completed an online survey that included measures of personality, values, professional and lifestyle expectations, and well-being. Logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of preferred medical specialty, practice location and hours of work.…

  3. Convergence of moment expansions for expectation values with embedded random matrix ensembles and quantum chaos

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kota, V. K. B.

    2003-07-01

    Smoothed forms for expectation values < K> E of positive definite operators K follow from the K-density moments either directly or in many other ways each giving a series expansion (involving polynomials in E). In large spectroscopic spaces one has to partition the many particle spaces into subspaces. Partitioning leads to new expansions for expectation values. It is shown that all the expansions converge to compact forms depending on the nature of the operator K and the operation of embedded random matrix ensembles and quantum chaos in many particle spaces. Explicit results are given for occupancies < ni> E, spin-cutoff factors < JZ2> E and strength sums < O†O> E, where O is a one-body transition operator.

  4. On the Q-dependence of the lowest-order QED corrections and other properties of the ground 11S-states in the two-electron ions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolov, Alexei M.

    2015-10-01

    Formulas and expectation values which are need to determine the lowest-order QED corrections (∼α3) and corresponding recoil (or finite mass) corrections in the two-electron helium-like ions are presented. Other important properties of the two-electron ions are also determined to high accuracy, including the expectation values of the quasi-singular Vinti operator and < reN-2> and < ree-2> expectation values. Elastic scattering of fast electrons by the two-electron ions in the Born approximation is considered. Interpolation formulas are derived for the bound state properties of the two-electron ions as the function of the nuclear electric charge Q.

  5. Do framing effects reveal irrational choice?

    PubMed

    Mandel, David R

    2014-06-01

    Framing effects have long been viewed as compelling evidence of irrationality in human decision making, yet that view rests on the questionable assumption that numeric quantifiers used to convey the expected values of choice options are uniformly interpreted as exact values. Two experiments show that when the exactness of such quantifiers is made explicit by the experimenter, framing effects vanish. However, when the same quantifiers are given a lower bound (at least) meaning, the typical framing effect is found. A 3rd experiment confirmed that most people spontaneously interpret the quantifiers in standard framing tests as lower bounded and that their interpretations strongly moderate the framing effect. Notably, in each experiment, a significant majority of participants made rational choices, either choosing the option that maximized expected value (i.e., lives saved) or choosing consistently across frames when the options were of equal expected value. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. Numerical solution of open string field theory in Schnabl gauge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arroyo, E. Aldo; Fernandes-Silva, A.; Szitas, R.

    2018-01-01

    Using traditional Virasoro L 0 level-truncation computations, we evaluate the open bosonic string field theory action up to level (10 , 30). Extremizing this level-truncated potential, we construct a numerical solution for tachyon condensation in Schnabl gauge. We find that the energy associated to the numerical solution overshoots the expected value -1 at level L = 6. Extrapolating the level-truncation data for L ≤ 10 to estimate the vacuum energies for L > 10, we predict that the energy reaches a minimum value at L ˜ 12, and then turns back to approach -1 asymptotically as L → ∞. Furthermore, we analyze the tachyon vacuum expectation value (vev), for which by extrapolating its corresponding level-truncation data, we predict that the tachyon vev reaches a minimum value at L ˜ 26, and then turns back to approach the expected analytical result as L → ∞.

  7. Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

    PubMed

    Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

    2015-05-01

    This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Smoking as a decision among pregnant and non-pregnant women.

    PubMed

    Ortendahl, Monica

    2006-10-01

    The purpose was to examine values and beliefs related to smoking, and to test the validity of a decision model based on the product of the value of smoking-related events and states, and the belief that these will occur, (in decision research labeled Expected Utility, or EU). Over a two-week period eighty women, divided into subgroups consisting of pregnant vs. non-pregnant women, and those intending vs. those not intending to quit smoking, performed evaluations of values and beliefs for the two conditions of quitting and not quitting smoking. For both pregnant and non-pregnant women expected utility of smoking was negative. Of all the four groups pregnant women not intending to quit smoking estimated the expected utility of smoking as least negative. A decision analytic approach is applicable to describe the addictive behavior of smoking. Values as well as beliefs about smoking should be stressed in smoking cessation programs, especially among pregnant women.

  9. Children's motivation in elementary physical education: a longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin

    2004-03-01

    The present study examined relationships among variables drawn from achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice as well as mean level changes of these variables over time in elementary physical education. Participants (N = 207) completed questionnaires over a 2-year period: once while in the second and fourth grades and again when they were in the third and fifth grades. Results indicated that achievement goals, expectancy-related beliefs, and subjective task values were related to one another and were predictive of children's intention for future participation in physical education. Children's subjective task values of physical education decreased over time. Children in Cohort 1 (across second to third grades) generally had stronger motivation for learning in physical education than children in Cohort 2 (across fourth to fifth grades). Findings suggest the importance of integrating achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice in understanding student motivation.

  10. Positively versus negatively charged moral emotion expectancies in adolescence: the role of situational context and the developing moral self.

    PubMed

    Krettenauer, Tobias; Johnston, Megan

    2011-09-01

    The study analyses adolescents' positively charged versus negatively charged moral emotion expectancies. Two hundred and five students (M= 14.83 years, SD= 2.21) participated in an interview depicting various situations in which a moral norm was either regarded or transgressed. Emotion expectancies were assessed for specific emotions (pride, guilt) as well as for overall strength and valence. In addition, self-importance of moral values was measured by a questionnaire. Results revealed that positively charged emotion expectancies were more pronounced in contexts of prosocial action than in the context of moral transgressions, whereas the opposite was true for negatively charged emotions. At the same time, expectations of guilt and pride were substantially related to the self-importance of moral values. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  11. Trajectories of Educational Expectations from Adolescence to Young Adulthood in Finland

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tynkkynen, Lotta; Tolvanen, Asko; Salmela-Aro, Katariina

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this person-oriented, 5-wave longitudinal study was to examine the trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in the context of the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Altogether, 853 (48% female; M age = 16 years) Finnish adolescents reported their educational expectation, 1st in the…

  12. Trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in Finland.

    PubMed

    Tynkkynen, Lotta; Tolvanen, Asko; Salmela-Aro, Katariina

    2012-11-01

    The purpose of this person-oriented, 5-wave longitudinal study was to examine the trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in the context of the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Altogether, 853 (48% female; M age = 16 years) Finnish adolescents reported their educational expectation, 1st in the last year of comprehensive school and 4 times during the following 5 years. Latent class analysis showed that 5 trajectories of educational expectations fit the data best: stable-university (38%), stable-vocational (18%), stable-polytechnic (24%), increasing-expectations (10%), and decreasing-expectations (10%). In line with the expectancy-value theory, adolescents' academic achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), perception of parents' aspirations for them, and ability-beliefs were all related to their trajectories of educational expectations. For example, the higher the adolescent's SES, perception of parents' educational aspirations, and grade point average (GPA), the more likely the participant was to be in the stable-university trajectory compared to the stable-vocational trajectory. Gender had an indirect effect on the trajectories via GPA. Moreover, participants with higher ability-beliefs were more likely to be in trajectories with high and stable educational expectations compared to the unstable trajectories. The trajectories were related to the participants' educational situation after comprehensive school.

  13. Reason and reaction: the utility of a dual-focus, dual-processing perspective on promotion and prevention of adolescent health risk behaviour.

    PubMed

    Gibbons, Frederick X; Houlihan, Amy E; Gerrard, Meg

    2009-05-01

    A brief overview of theories of health behaviour that are based on the expectancy-value perspective is presented. This approach maintains that health behaviours are the result of a deliberative decision-making process that involves consideration of behavioural options along with anticipated outcomes associated with those options. It is argued that this perspective is effective at explaining and predicting many types of health behaviour, including health-promoting actions (e.g. UV protection, condom use, smoking cessation), but less effective at predicting risky health behaviours, such as unprotected, casual sex, drunk driving or binge drinking. These are behaviours that are less reasoned or premeditated - especially among adolescents. An argument is made for incorporating elements of dual-processing theories in an effort to improve the 'utility' of these models. Specifically, it is suggested that adolescent health behaviour involves both analytic and heuristic processing. Both types of processing are incorporated in the prototype-willingness (prototype) model, which is described in some detail. Studies of health behaviour based on the expectancy-value perspective (e.g. theory of reasoned action) are reviewed, along with studies based on the prototype model. These two sets of studies together suggest that the dual-processing perspective, in general, and the prototype model, in particular, add to the predictive validity of expectancy-value models for predicting adolescent health behaviour. Research and interventions that incorporate elements of dual-processing and elements of expectancy-value are more effective at explaining and changing adolescent health behaviour than are those based on expectancy-value theories alone.

  14. Complementary contributions of basolateral amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex to value learning under uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Stolyarova, Alexandra; Izquierdo, Alicia

    2017-01-01

    We make choices based on the values of expected outcomes, informed by previous experience in similar settings. When the outcomes of our decisions consistently violate expectations, new learning is needed to maximize rewards. Yet not every surprising event indicates a meaningful change in the environment. Even when conditions are stable overall, outcomes of a single experience can still be unpredictable due to small fluctuations (i.e., expected uncertainty) in reward or costs. In the present work, we investigate causal contributions of the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) in rats to learning under expected outcome uncertainty in a novel delay-based task that incorporates both predictable fluctuations and directional shifts in outcome values. We demonstrate that OFC is required to accurately represent the distribution of wait times to stabilize choice preferences despite trial-by-trial fluctuations in outcomes, whereas BLA is necessary for the facilitation of learning in response to surprising events. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.27483.001 PMID:28682238

  15. Secondary School Students' Physical Activity Participation across Physical Education Classes: The Expectancy-Value Theory Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gråstén, Arto; Watt, Anthony; Hagger, Martin; Jaakkola, Timo; Liukkonen, Jarmo

    2015-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to analyze the link between students' expectancy beliefs, subjective task values, out-of-school activity, and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) participation across secondary school physical education (PE) classes. The sample comprised 96 students (58 girls, 38 boys; Mage = 15.03, SD = 0.94) from…

  16. Effects of Parental Expectations and Cultural-Values Orientation on Career Decision-Making Difficulties of Chinese University Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leung, S. Alvin; Hou, Zhi-Jin; Gati, Itamar; Li, Xixi

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the effects of cultural-values conflict and parental expectations on the career decision-making difficulties of university students in three cities in China (Beijing, Wuhan, and Hong Kong, N = 1342). The Multidimensional Scales of Individual Traditionality and Modernity (Yang, Yu, & Ye, 1989) were used as a measure of…

  17. Using the Expectancy Value Model of Motivation to Understand the Relationship between Student Attitudes and Achievement in Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hood, Michelle; Creed, Peter A.; Neumann, David L.

    2012-01-01

    We tested a model of the relationship between attitudes toward statistics and achievement based on Eccles' Expectancy Value Model (1983). Participants (n = 149; 83% female) were second-year Australian university students in a psychology statistics course (mean age = 23.36 years, SD = 7.94 years). We obtained demographic details, past performance,…

  18. Choices and Changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students' Longitudinal Reflections about Their Choice of a STEM Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school…

  19. Educational and Career Interests in Math: A Longitudinal Examination of the Links between Classroom Environment, Motivational Beliefs, and Interests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Ming-Te

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the expectancy-value model, stage-environment fit theory, and self-determination theory, this study examined the longitudinal associations between classroom characteristics, expectancies-values, high school course enrollment, and career aspirations in the domain of math. Data were collected on 3,048 youth who reported on their classroom…

  20. Understanding the Relationship between Parental Education and STEM Course Taking through Identity-Based and Expectancy-Value Theories of Motivation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Svoboda, Ryan C.; Rozek, Christopher S.; Hyde, Janet S.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.; Destin, Mesmin

    2016-01-01

    High school students from lower-socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds are less likely to enroll in advanced mathematics and science courses compared to students from higher-SES backgrounds. The current longitudinal study draws on identity-based and expectancy-value theories of motivation to explain the SES and mathematics and science…

  1. Renormalizing the Kinetic Energy Operator in Elementary Quantum Mechanics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coutinho, F. A. B.; Amaku, M.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we consider solutions to the three-dimensional Schrodinger equation of the form [psi](r) = u(r)/r, where u(0) [is not equal to] 0. The expectation value of the kinetic energy operator for such wavefunctions diverges. We show that it is possible to introduce a potential energy with an expectation value that also diverges, exactly…

  2. Musings on cosmological relaxation and the hierarchy problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaeckel, Joerg; Mehta, Viraf M.; Witkowski, Lukas T.

    2016-03-01

    Recently Graham, Kaplan and Rajendran proposed cosmological relaxation as a mechanism for generating a hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation value. Inspired by this we collect some thoughts on steps towards a solution to the electroweak hierarchy problem and apply them to the original model of cosmological relaxation [Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 221801 (2015)]. To do so, we study the dynamics of the model and determine the relation between the fundamental input parameters and the electroweak vacuum expectation value. Depending on the input parameters the model exhibits three qualitatively different regimes, two of which allow for hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation values. One leads to standard electroweak symmetry breaking whereas in the other regime electroweak symmetry is mainly broken by a Higgs source term. While the latter is not acceptable in a model based on the QCD axion, in non-QCD models this may lead to new and interesting signatures in Higgs observables. Overall, we confirm that cosmological relaxation can successfully give rise to a hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation value if (at least) one model parameter is chosen sufficiently small. However, we find that the required level of tuning for achieving this hierarchy in relaxation models can be much more severe than in the Standard Model.

  3. Cosmological coherent state expectation values in loop quantum gravity I. Isotropic kinematics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dapor, Andrea; Liegener, Klaus

    2018-07-01

    This is the first paper of a series dedicated to loop quantum gravity (LQG) coherent states and cosmology. The concept is based on the effective dynamics program of Loop Quantum Cosmology, where the classical dynamics generated by the expectation value of the Hamiltonian on semiclassical states is found to be in agreement with the quantum evolution of such states. We ask the question of whether this expectation value agrees with the one obtained in the full theory. The answer is in the negative, Dapor and Liegener (2017 arXiv:1706.09833). This series of papers is dedicated to detailing the computations that lead to that surprising result. In the current paper, we construct the family of coherent states in LQG which represent flat (k  =  0) Robertson–Walker spacetimes, and present the tools needed to compute expectation values of polynomial operators in holonomy and flux on such states. These tools will be applied to the LQG Hamiltonian operator (in Thiemann regularization) in the second paper of the series. The third paper will present an extension to cosmologies and a comparison with alternative regularizations of the Hamiltonian.

  4. Sustainable breeding objectives and possible selection response: Finding the balance between economics and breeders' preferences.

    PubMed

    Fuerst-Waltl, Birgit; Fuerst, Christian; Obritzhauser, Walter; Egger-Danner, Christa

    2016-12-01

    To optimize breeding objectives of Fleckvieh and Brown Swiss cattle, economic values were re-estimated using updated prices, costs, and population parameters. Subsequently, the expected selection responses for the total merit index (TMI) were calculated using previous and newly derived economic values. The responses were compared for alternative scenarios that consider breeders' preferences. A dairy herd with milk production, bull fattening, and rearing of replacement stock was modeled. The economic value of a trait was derived by calculating the difference in herd profit before and after genetic improvement. Economic values for each trait were derived while keeping all other traits constant. The traits considered were dairy, beef, and fitness traits, the latter including direct health traits. The calculation of the TMI and the expected selection responses was done using selection index methodology with estimated breeding values instead of phenotypic deviations. For the scenario representing the situation up to 2016, all traits included in the TMI were considered with their respective economic values before the update. Selection response was also calculated for newly derived economic values and some alternative scenarios, including the new trait vitality index (subindex comprising stillbirth and rearing losses). For Fleckvieh, the relative economic value for the trait groups milk, beef, and fitness were 38, 16, and 46%, respectively, up to 2016, and 39, 13, and 48%, respectively, for the newly derived economic values. Approximately the same selection response may be expected for the milk trait group, whereas the new weightings resulted in a substantially decreased response in beef traits. Within the fitness block, all traits, with the exception of fertility, showed a positive selection response. For Brown Swiss, the relative economic values for the main trait groups milk, beef, and fitness were 48, 5, and 47% before 2016, respectively, whereas for the newly derived scenario they were 40, 14, and 39%. For both Brown Swiss and Fleckvieh, the fertility complex was expected to further deteriorate, whereas all other expected selection responses for fitness traits were positive. Several additional and alternative scenarios were calculated as a basis for discussion with breeders. A decision was made to implement TMI with relative economic values for milk, beef, and fitness with 38, 18, and 44% for Fleckvieh and 50, 5, and 45% for Brown Swiss, respectively. In both breeds, no positive expected selection response was predicted for fertility, although this trait complex received a markedly higher weight than that derived economically. An even higher weight for fertility could not be agreed on due to the effect on selection response of other traits. Hence, breeders decided to direct more attention toward the preselection of bulls with regard to fertility. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The Mediating Effect of Listening Metacognitive Awareness between Test-Taking Motivation and Listening Test Score: An Expectancy-Value Theory Approach

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Jian

    2017-01-01

    The present study investigated test-taking motivation in L2 listening testing context by applying Expectancy-Value Theory as the framework. Specifically, this study was intended to examine the complex relationships among expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, listening metacognitive awareness, and listening test score using data from a large-scale and high-stakes language test among Chinese first-year undergraduates. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the mediating effect of listening metacognitive awareness on the relationship between expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score. According to the results, test takers’ listening scores can be predicted by expectancy, interest, and listening anxiety significantly. The relationship between expectancy, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score was mediated by listening metacognitive awareness. The findings have implications for test takers to improve their test taking motivation and listening metacognitive awareness, as well as for L2 teachers to intervene in L2 listening classrooms. PMID:29312063

  6. The Mediating Effect of Listening Metacognitive Awareness between Test-Taking Motivation and Listening Test Score: An Expectancy-Value Theory Approach.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jian

    2017-01-01

    The present study investigated test-taking motivation in L2 listening testing context by applying Expectancy-Value Theory as the framework. Specifically, this study was intended to examine the complex relationships among expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, listening metacognitive awareness, and listening test score using data from a large-scale and high-stakes language test among Chinese first-year undergraduates. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the mediating effect of listening metacognitive awareness on the relationship between expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score. According to the results, test takers' listening scores can be predicted by expectancy, interest, and listening anxiety significantly. The relationship between expectancy, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score was mediated by listening metacognitive awareness. The findings have implications for test takers to improve their test taking motivation and listening metacognitive awareness, as well as for L2 teachers to intervene in L2 listening classrooms.

  7. Understanding unemployed people's job search behaviour, unemployment experience and well-being: a comparison of expectancy-value theory and self-determination theory.

    PubMed

    Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Lens, Willy; De Witte, Hans; Feather, N T

    2005-06-01

    Previous unemployment research has directly tested hypotheses derived from expectancy-value theory (EVT; Feather, 1982, 1990), but no comparative analysis has been executed with another motivational framework. In one large study with 446 unemployed people, separate analyses provided good evidence for predictions derived from both EVT and self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000). Comparative analyses indicated that the type of people's job search motivation, as conceptualized through the notions of autonomous versus controlled motivation within SDT, is an important predictor of people's unemployment experience and wellbeing, beyond people's strength of motivation assessed within EVT through expectancies of finding a job and employment value. The importance of simultaneously testing two theoretical frameworks is discussed.

  8. Children's Reactions to Television Advertising for Toys.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorn, Gerald J.; Goldberg, Marvin E.

    This study investigated both the effects of expectancy and TV commercials using an expectancy-value model. In a 3 x 5 factorial design, eight- to ten-year-old boys (N=133) were presented with low, moderate or high expectancies of winning a toy, followed by exposure to 0, 1 or 3 repetitions of a TV commercial for the toy. High expectancy led to…

  9. A simple formulation and solution to the replacement problem: a practical tool to assess the economic cow value, the value of a new pregnancy, and the cost of a pregnancy loss.

    PubMed

    Cabrera, V E

    2012-08-01

    This study contributes to the research literature by providing a new formulation for the cow replacement problem, and it also contributes to the Extension deliverables by providing a user-friendly decision support system tool that would more likely be adopted and applied for practical decision making. The cow value, its related values of a new pregnancy and a pregnancy loss, and their associated replacement policies determine profitability in dairy farming. One objective of this study was to present a simple, interactive, dynamic, and robust formulation of the cow value and the replacement problem, including expectancy of the future production of the cow and the genetic gain of the replacement. The proven hypothesis of this study was that all the above requirements could be achieved by using a Markov chain algorithm. The Markov chain model allowed (1) calculation of a forward expected value of a studied cow and its replacement; (2) use of a single model (the Markov chain) to calculate both the replacement policies and the herd statistics; (3) use of a predefined, preestablished farm reproductive replacement policy; (4) inclusion of a farmer's assessment of the expected future performance of a cow; (5) inclusion of a farmer's assessment of genetic gain with a replacement; and (6) use of a simple spreadsheet or an online system to implement the decision support system. Results clearly demonstrated that the decision policies found with the Markov chain model were consistent with more complex dynamic programming models. The final user-friendly decision support tool is available at http://dairymgt.info/ → Tools → The Economic Value of a Dairy Cow. This tool calculates the cow value instantaneously and is highly interactive, dynamic, and robust. When a Wisconsin dairy farm was studied using the model, the solution policy called for replacing nonpregnant cows 11 mo after calving or months in milk (MIM) if in the first lactation and 9 MIM if in later lactations. The cow value for an average second-lactation cow was as follows: (1) when nonpregnant, (a) $897 in MIM = 1 and (b) $68 in MIM = 8; (2) when the cow just became pregnant,(a) $889 for a pregnancy in MIM = 3 and (b) $298 for a pregnancy in MIM = 8; and (3) the value of a pregnancy loss when a cow became pregnant in MIM = 5 was (a) $221 when the loss was in the first month of pregnancy and (b) $897 when the loss was in the ninth month of pregnancy. The cow value indicated pregnant cows should be kept. The expected future production of a cow with respect to a similar average cow was an important determinant in the cow replacement decision. The expected production in the rest of the lactation was more important for nonpregnant cows, and the expected production in successive lactations was more important for pregnant cows. A 120% expected milk production for a cow with MIM = 16 and 6 mo pregnant in the present lactation or in successive lactations determined between 1.52 and 6.48 times the cow value, respectively, of an average production cow. The cow value decreased by $211 for every 1 percentage point of expected genetic gain of the replacement. A break-even analysis of the cow value with respect to expected milk production of an average second-parity cow indicated that (1) nonpregnant cows in MIM = 1 and 8 could still remain in the herd if they produced at least 84 and 98% in the present lactation or if they produced at least 78 and 97% in future lactations, respectively; and (2) cows becoming pregnant in MIM = 5 would require at least 64% of milk production in the rest of the lactation or 93% in successive lactations to remain in the herd. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Expectancy-Value Models for the STEM Persistence Plans of Ninth-Grade, High-Ability Students: A Comparison between Black, Hispanic, and White Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andersen, Lori; Ward, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    Group differences in the effects of the expectancies and values that high-ability students have for science and mathematics on plans to persist in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) were investigated. A nationally representative sample of ninth-grade students, the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS: 2009; n =…

  11. Information Science Instruction and Changes in Girls' and Boy's Expectancy and Value Beliefs: In Search of Gender-Equitable Pedagogical Practices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vekiri, Ioanna

    2013-01-01

    In this study, which was situated in the context of information science instruction, data were collected twice using student self-reports to examine the effects of pedagogical practices on changes in boys' and girls' expectancy and value beliefs about computing. Participants were 326 7th-grade students, enrolled in three middle schools that were…

  12. Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

    Treesearch

    Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

    2017-01-01

    Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

  13. Discounting and decision making in the economic evaluation of health-care technologies.

    PubMed

    Claxton, Karl; Paulden, Mike; Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Culyer, Anthony J

    2011-01-01

    Discounting costs and health benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis has been the subject of recent debate - some authors suggesting a common rate for both and others suggesting a lower rate for health. We show how these views turn on key judgments of fact and value: on whether the social objective is to maximise discounted health outcomes or the present consumption value of health; on whether the budget for health care is fixed; on the expected growth in the cost-effectiveness threshold; and on the expected growth in the consumption value of health. We demonstrate that if the budget for health care is fixed and decisions are based on incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounting costs and health gains at the same rate is correct only if the threshold remains constant. Expecting growth in the consumption value of health does not itself justify differential rates but implies a lower rate for both. However, whether one believes that the objective should be the maximisation of the present value of health or the present consumption value of health, adopting the social time preference rate for consumption as the discount rate for costs and health gains is valid only under strong and implausible assumptions about values and facts. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Patients With Thumb Carpometacarpal Arthritis Have Quantifiable Characteristic Expectations That Can Be Measured With a Survey.

    PubMed

    Kang, Lana; Hashmi, Sohaib Z; Nguyen, Joseph; Lee, Steve K; Weiland, Andrew J; Mancuso, Carol A

    2016-01-01

    Although patient expectations associated with major orthopaedic conditions have shown clinically relevant and variable effects on outcomes, expectations associated with thumb carpometacarpal (CMC) arthritis have not been identified, described, or analyzed before, to our knowledge. We asked: (1) Do patients with thumb CMC arthritis express characteristic expectations that are quantifiable and have measurable frequency? (2) Can a survey on expectations developed from patient-derived data quantitate expectations in patients with thumb CMC arthritis? The study was a prospective cohort study. The first phase was a 12-month-period involving interviews of 42 patients with thumb CMC arthritis to define their expectations of treatment. The interview process used techniques and principles of qualitative methodology including open-ended interview questions, unrestricted time, and study size determined by data saturation. Verbatim responses provided content for the draft survey. The second phase was a 12-month period assessing the survey for test-retest reliability with the recruitment of 36 participants who completed the survey twice. The survey was finalized from clinically relevant content, frequency of endorsement, weighted kappa values for concordance of responses, and intraclass coefficient and Cronbach's alpha for interrater reliability and internal consistency. Thirty-two patients volunteered 256 characteristic expectations, which consisted of 21 discrete categories. Expectations with similar concepts were combined by eliminating redundancy while maintaining original terminology. These were reduced to 19 items that comprised a one-page survey. This survey showed high concordance, interrater reliability, and internal consistency, with weighted kappa values between 0.58 and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.39-0.78; p < 0.001); intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98; p < 0.001), and Cronbach's alpha values of 0.94 and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.91-0.96; p < 0.001). The thumb CMC arthritis expectations survey score is convertible to an overall score between 0 to 100 points calculated on the basis of the number of expectations and the degree of improvement expected, with higher scores indicating higher expectations. Patients with thumb CMC arthritis volunteer a characteristic and quantifiable set of expectations. Using responses recorded verbatim from patient interviews, a clinically relevant, valid, and reliable expectations survey was developed that measures the physical and psychosocial expectations of patients seeking treatment for CMC arthritis. The survey provides a calculable score that can record patients' expectations. Clinical application of this survey includes identification of factors that influence fulfilment of these expectations. Level II, prospective study.

  15. Expectancy Theory in Media and Message Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Leuven, Jim

    1981-01-01

    Argues for reversing emphasis on uses and gratifications research in favor of an expectancy model which holds that selection of a particular medium depends on (1) the expectation that the choice will be followed by a message of interest and (2) the importance of that message in satisfying user's values. (PD)

  16. An Unexpected Expected Value.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartzman, Steven

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the surprising result that the expected number of marbles of one color drawn from a set of marbles of two colors after two draws without replacement is the same as the expected number of that color marble after two draws with replacement. Presents mathematical models to help explain this phenomenon. (MDH)

  17. Child Characteristics and Parental Educational Expectations: Evidence for Transmission with Transaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Briley, Daniel A.; Harden, K. Paige; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

    2014-01-01

    Parents' expectations for their children's ultimate educational attainment have been hypothesized to play an instrumental role in socializing academically relevant child behaviors, beliefs, and abilities. In addition to social transmission of educationally relevant values from parents to children, parental expectations and child…

  18. Academic Expectations as Sources of Stress in Asian Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tan, Joyce Beiyu; Yates, Shirley

    2011-01-01

    Education is highly valued in Confucian Heritage Culture (CHC) countries such as China, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and Korea but the expectations of parents, teachers and students themselves to excel academically can also be a source of intense stress for many students. The "Academic Expectations Stress Inventory" (AESI),…

  19. Exact finite volume expectation values of local operators in excited states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozsgay, B.; Szécsényi, I. M.; Takács, G.

    2015-04-01

    We present a conjecture for the exact expression of finite volume expectation values in excited states in integrable quantum field theories, which is an extension of an earlier conjecture to the case of general diagonal factorized scattering with bound states and a nontrivial bootstrap structure. The conjectured expression is a spectral expansion which uses the exact form factors and the excited state thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz as building blocks. The conjecture is proven for the case of the trace of the energy-moment tensor. Concerning its validity for more general operators, we provide numerical evidence using the truncated conformal space approach. It is found that the expansion fails to be well-defined for small values of the volume in cases when the singularity structure of the TBA equations undergoes a non-trivial rearrangement under some critical value of the volume. Despite these shortcomings, the conjectured expression is expected to be valid for all volumes for most of the excited states, and as an expansion above the critical volume for the rest.

  20. Familism, family ethnic socialization, and Mexican-origin adolescent mothers' educational adjustment.

    PubMed

    Bravo, Diamond Y; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J; Guimond, Amy B; Updegraff, Kimberly A; Jahromi, Laudan B

    2014-07-01

    The current longitudinal study examined how familism values and family ethnic socialization impacted Mexican-origin adolescent mothers' (N = 205) educational adjustment (i.e., educational expectations, educational utility), and whether these associations were moderated by adolescent mothers' ethnic centrality. Findings indicated that adolescent mothers' reports of familism values and family ethnic socialization were positively associated with their beliefs about educational utility, but not educational expectations. Ethnic centrality moderated the association between adolescent mothers' familism values and educational utility, such that adolescent mothers' endorsement of familism values during pregnancy were associated with significant increases in educational utility after their transition to parenthood, but only when adolescents reported high levels of ethnic centrality. Moreover, ethnic centrality was positively associated with adolescent mothers' educational expectations. Results highlight the importance of familism, ethnic socialization, and ethnic centrality for promoting Mexican-origin adolescent mothers' educational outcomes. Findings are discussed with respect to understanding adolescent mothers' educational adjustment in the context of family and culture.

  1. Achievement, motivation, and educational choices: A longitudinal study of expectancy and value using a multiplicative perspective.

    PubMed

    Guo, Jiesi; Parker, Philip D; Marsh, Herbert W; Morin, Alexandre J S

    2015-08-01

    Drawing on the expectancy-value model, the present study explored individual and gender differences in university entry and selection of educational pathway (e.g., science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [STEM] course selection). In particular, we examined the multiplicative effects of expectancy and task values on educational outcomes during the transition into early adulthood. Participants were from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 15-year-old Australian youths (N = 10,370). The results suggest that (a) both math self-concept and intrinsic value interact in predicting advanced math course selection, matriculation results, entrance into university, and STEM fields of study; (b) prior reading achievement has negative effects on advanced math course selection and STEM fields through math motivational beliefs; and (c) gender differences in educational outcomes are mediated by gender differences in motivational beliefs and prior academic achievement, while the processes underlying choice of educational pathway were similar for males and females. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Familism, Family Ethnic Socialization, and Mexican-Origin Adolescent Mothers’ Educational Adjustment

    PubMed Central

    Bravo, Diamond Y.; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J.; Guimond, Amy B.; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Jahromi, Laudan B.

    2016-01-01

    The current longitudinal study examined how familism values and family ethnic socialization impacted Mexican-origin adolescent mothers’ (N = 205) educational adjustment (i.e., educational expectations, educational utility), and whether these associations were moderated by adolescent mothers’ ethnic centrality. Findings indicated that adolescent mothers’ reports of familism values and family ethnic socialization were positively associated with their beliefs about educational utility, but not educational expectations. Ethnic centrality moderated the association between adolescent mothers’ familism values and educational utility, such that adolescent mothers’ endorsement of familism values during pregnancy were associated with significant increases in educational utility after their transition to parenthood, but only when adolescents reported high levels of ethnic centrality. Moreover, ethnic centrality was positively associated with adolescent mothers’ educational expectations. Results highlight the importance of familism, ethnic socialization, and ethnic centrality for promoting Mexican-origin adolescent mothers’ educational outcomes. Findings are discussed with respect to understanding adolescent mothers’ educational adjustment in the context of family and culture. PMID:25045950

  3. Developmental changes and gender effects on motivational constructs based on the expectancy-value model in Czech and United States students regarding learning of science, mathematics, and other subjects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Eun-Mi

    This study employed American and Czech student samples to investigate the motivational constructs used in Eccles and Wigfield's (1983) expectancy-value model. To predict achievement behavior, the model specifies relationships among expectancy for-success and task value, task-specific self-concept, perception of task-difficulty, perceptions of social environment, and interpretations and attributions for past events in relation to the social world. Czech and American students (n = 1,145) in grades 4--12 were the participants in this study. The causal relationships among the constructs were tested to investigate structural similarities and differences in the models for both countries. This study also explored developmental changes, gender, and national differences in the students' motivational beliefs for these motivational constructs: Expectancy for Success, Intrinsic Interest Value, Task-specific Self-concept, Perception of Task-difficulty, and Perceived Vocational Gender Dominance for science, mathematics, and other school subjects. The findings indicated that, for both countries, with respect to changes over grade level, compared to the younger students, the older students showed lower motivational beliefs for most subject areas except reading. However, the Czech students in grades 6--8 showed more positive motivational beliefs in life science and social studies than did the Czech students in other grade levels. In comparing genders, the male students exhibited more positive motivational beliefs in physical science than did the female students, and female students showed more positive motivational beliefs in reading than did the male students. For life science, the Czech female students rated Intrinsic Interest Value and Task-specific Self-concept higher than did their peer male students. The American students' motivational beliefs in reading were more positive than were Czech students', and the Czech students held more positive motivational beliefs in life science than did the American students. With minor variations for each country, the expectancy-value model provided a reasonable tool for understanding the causal relationships among the motivational beliefs. For the Czech sample, Perception of Task-difficulty was a strong negative predictor for Expectancy for Success for most school subjects except life science whereas, for the American sample, it was a weak but significant negative predictor for Intrinsic Interest Value for most school subjects except social studies. Implications for science education are discussed.

  4. Motivation for diet and exercise management among adults with type 2 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Oftedal, Bjørg; Bru, Edvin; Karlsen, Bjørg

    2011-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate diet and exercise management and how indicators of intrinsic motivation such as ability expectations and values are associated with diet and exercise management among adults with type 2 diabetes. Motivational problems are probably one of the main reasons for poor diabetes management. However, the mechanisms involved in the motivation for adequate self-management are still unclear. A cross-sectional design including a postal questionnaire that investigated diet and exercise management as well as intrinsic motivational factors such as ability expectations and values related to these behaviours was used to collect the data. A sample comprising 425 adults with type 2 diabetes aged between 30 and 70 completed the questionnaire. Reported diet management was more in accordance with recommendations than reported exercise management. Yet results indicated equally high ability expectations and positive values for exercise and diet management. Moreover, results demonstrated that ability expectations and values explained more variance in exercise (21.6%) than in diet management (7.6%). The modest association between intrinsic motivational factors and diet management may imply that there are important extrinsic factors that play a significant role in determining dietary behaviour. The combination of lower exercise activity than recommended and high ability expectations and values for such activity may reflect that subjective exercise norms are formed individually in accordance with what most people recognise as the appropriate level of physical activity. Finally, results may indicate that there is potential for improving exercise management by stimulating intrinsic motivation as well as by more clearly communicating recommendations for such management. © 2011 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Caring Sciences © 2011 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  5. The Decision to Engage Cognitive Control Is Driven by Expected Reward-Value: Neural and Behavioral Evidence

    PubMed Central

    Dixon, Matthew L.; Christoff, Kalina

    2012-01-01

    Cognitive control is a fundamental skill reflecting the active use of task-rules to guide behavior and suppress inappropriate automatic responses. Prior work has traditionally used paradigms in which subjects are told when to engage cognitive control. Thus, surprisingly little is known about the factors that influence individuals' initial decision of whether or not to act in a reflective, rule-based manner. To examine this, we took three classic cognitive control tasks (Stroop, Wisconsin Card Sorting Task, Go/No-Go task) and created novel ‘free-choice’ versions in which human subjects were free to select an automatic, pre-potent action, or an action requiring rule-based cognitive control, and earned varying amounts of money based on their choices. Our findings demonstrated that subjects' decision to engage cognitive control was driven by an explicit representation of monetary rewards expected to be obtained from rule-use. Subjects rarely engaged cognitive control when the expected outcome was of equal or lesser value as compared to the value of the automatic response, but frequently engaged cognitive control when it was expected to yield a larger monetary outcome. Additionally, we exploited fMRI-adaptation to show that the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) represents associations between rules and expected reward outcomes. Together, these findings suggest that individuals are more likely to act in a reflective, rule-based manner when they expect that it will result in a desired outcome. Thus, choosing to exert cognitive control is not simply a matter of reason and willpower, but rather, conforms to standard mechanisms of value-based decision making. Finally, in contrast to current models of LPFC function, our results suggest that the LPFC plays a direct role in representing motivational incentives. PMID:23284730

  6. Five Values of Giftedness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Besjes-de Bock, Karin M.; de Ruyter, Doret J.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes five values attributed to giftedness. The ascription of values to this phenomenon resembles values attached to gifts in gift-giving processes. Whereas gift-giving often includes expectations of reciprocity, each gift possesses a numerical, utility, social, personal, and intrinsic value. Developmental models of giftedness and…

  7. The Value of Heterogeneity for Cost-Effectiveness Subgroup Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Manca, Andrea; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark J.

    2014-01-01

    This article develops a general framework to guide the use of subgroup cost-effectiveness analysis for decision making in a collectively funded health system. In doing so, it addresses 2 key policy questions, namely, the identification and selection of subgroups, while distinguishing 2 sources of potential value associated with heterogeneity. These are 1) the value of revealing the factors associated with heterogeneity in costs and outcomes using existing evidence (static value) and 2) the value of acquiring further subgroup-related evidence to resolve the uncertainty given the current understanding of heterogeneity (dynamic value). Consideration of these 2 sources of value can guide subgroup-specific treatment decisions and inform whether further research should be conducted to resolve uncertainty to explain variability in costs and outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to a cost-effectiveness analysis for the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome. This study presents the expected net benefits under current and perfect information when subgroups are defined based on the use and combination of 6 binary covariates. The results of the case study confirm the theoretical expectations. As more subgroups are considered, the marginal net benefit gains obtained under the current information show diminishing marginal returns, and the expected value of perfect information shows a decreasing trend. We present a suggested algorithm that synthesizes the results to guide policy. PMID:24944196

  8. The value of heterogeneity for cost-effectiveness subgroup analysis: conceptual framework and application.

    PubMed

    Espinoza, Manuel A; Manca, Andrea; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark J

    2014-11-01

    This article develops a general framework to guide the use of subgroup cost-effectiveness analysis for decision making in a collectively funded health system. In doing so, it addresses 2 key policy questions, namely, the identification and selection of subgroups, while distinguishing 2 sources of potential value associated with heterogeneity. These are 1) the value of revealing the factors associated with heterogeneity in costs and outcomes using existing evidence (static value) and 2) the value of acquiring further subgroup-related evidence to resolve the uncertainty given the current understanding of heterogeneity (dynamic value). Consideration of these 2 sources of value can guide subgroup-specific treatment decisions and inform whether further research should be conducted to resolve uncertainty to explain variability in costs and outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to a cost-effectiveness analysis for the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome. This study presents the expected net benefits under current and perfect information when subgroups are defined based on the use and combination of 6 binary covariates. The results of the case study confirm the theoretical expectations. As more subgroups are considered, the marginal net benefit gains obtained under the current information show diminishing marginal returns, and the expected value of perfect information shows a decreasing trend. We present a suggested algorithm that synthesizes the results to guide policy. © The Author(s) 2014.

  9. Racial/ethnic differences in the influence of cultural values, alcohol resistance self-efficacy, and alcohol expectancies on risk for alcohol initiation.

    PubMed

    Shih, Regina A; Miles, Jeremy N V; Tucker, Joan S; Zhou, Annie J; D'Amico, Elizabeth J

    2012-09-01

    Prior research has reported racial/ethnic differences in the early initiation of alcohol use, suggesting that cultural values that are central to specific racial/ethnic groups may be influencing these differences. This 1-year longitudinal study examines associations between two types of cultural values, parental respect (honor for one's parents) and familism (connectedness with family), both measured at baseline, and subsequent alcohol initiation in a sample of 6,054 (approximately 49% male, 57% Hispanic, 22% Asian, 18% non-Hispanic White, and 4% non-Hispanic Black) middle school students in Southern California. We tested whether the associations of cultural values with alcohol initiation could be explained by baseline measures of alcohol resistance self-efficacy (RSE) and alcohol expectancies. We also explored whether these pathways differed by race/ethnicity. In the full sample, adolescents with higher parental respect were less likely to initiate alcohol use, an association that was partially explained by higher RSE and fewer positive alcohol expectancies. Familism was not significantly related to alcohol initiation. Comparing racial/ethnic groups, higher parental respect was protective against alcohol initiation for Whites and Asians, but not Blacks or Hispanics. There were no racial/ethnic differences in the association between familism and alcohol initiation. Results suggest that cultural values are important factors in the decision to use alcohol and these values appear to operate in part, by influencing alcohol positive expectancies and RSE. Interventions that focus on maintaining strong cultural values and building strong bonds between adolescents and their families may help reduce the risk of alcohol initiation. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  10. Human versus automation in responding to failures: an expected-value analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sheridan, T. B.; Parasuraman, R.

    2000-01-01

    A simple analytical criterion is provided for deciding whether a human or automation is best for a failure detection task. The method is based on expected-value decision theory in much the same way as is signal detection. It requires specification of the probabilities of misses (false negatives) and false alarms (false positives) for both human and automation being considered, as well as factors independent of the choice--namely, costs and benefits of incorrect and correct decisions as well as the prior probability of failure. The method can also serve as a basis for comparing different modes of automation. Some limiting cases of application are discussed, as are some decision criteria other than expected value. Actual or potential applications include the design and evaluation of any system in which either humans or automation are being considered.

  11. Fuzzification of continuous-value spatial evidence for mineral prospectivity mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yousefi, Mahyar; Carranza, Emmanuel John M.

    2015-01-01

    Complexities of geological processes portrayed as certain feature in a map (e.g., faults) are natural sources of uncertainties in decision-making for exploration of mineral deposits. Besides natural sources of uncertainties, knowledge-driven (e.g., fuzzy logic) mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM) is also plagued and incurs further uncertainty in subjective judgment of analyst when there is no reliable proven value of evidential scores corresponding to relative importance of geological features that can directly be measured. In this regard, analysts apply expert opinion to assess relative importance of spatial evidences as meaningful decision support. This paper aims for fuzzification of continuous spatial data used as proxy evidence to facilitate and to support fuzzy MPM to generate exploration target areas for further examination of undiscovered deposits. In addition, this paper proposes to adapt the concept of expected value to further improve fuzzy logic MPM because the analysis of uncertain variables can be presented in terms of their expected value. The proposed modified expected value approach to MPM is not only a multi-criteria approach but it also treats uncertainty of geological processes a depicted by maps or spatial data in term of biased weighting more realistically in comparison with classified evidential maps because fuzzy membership scores are defined continuously whereby, for example, there is no need to categorize distances from evidential features to proximity classes using arbitrary intervals. The proposed continuous weighting approach and then integrating the weighted evidence layers by using modified expected value function, described in this paper can be used efficiently in either greenfields or brownfields.

  12. Globally optimal trial design for local decision making.

    PubMed

    Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

    2009-02-01

    Value of information methods allows decision makers to identify efficient trial design following a principle of maximizing the expected value to decision makers of information from potential trial designs relative to their expected cost. However, in health technology assessment (HTA) the restrictive assumption has been made that, prospectively, there is only expected value of sample information from research commissioned within jurisdiction. This paper extends the framework for optimal trial design and decision making within jurisdiction to allow for optimal trial design across jurisdictions. This is illustrated in identifying an optimal trial design for decision making across the US, the UK and Australia for early versus late external cephalic version for pregnant women presenting in the breech position. The expected net gain from locally optimal trial designs of US$0.72M is shown to increase to US$1.14M with a globally optimal trial design. In general, the proposed method of globally optimal trial design improves on optimal trial design within jurisdictions by: (i) reflecting the global value of non-rival information; (ii) allowing optimal allocation of trial sample across jurisdictions; (iii) avoiding market failure associated with free-rider effects, sub-optimal spreading of fixed costs and heterogeneity of trial information with multiple trials. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. The dimensional salience solution to the expectancy-value muddle: an extension.

    PubMed

    Newton, Joshua D; Newton, Fiona J; Ewing, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    The theory of reasoned action (TRA) specifies a set of expectancy-value, belief-based frameworks that underpin attitude (behavioural beliefs × outcome evaluations) and subjective norm (normative beliefs × motivation to comply). Unfortunately, the most common method for analysing these frameworks generates statistically uninterpretable findings, resulting in what has been termed the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Recently, however, a dimensional salience approach was found to resolve this muddle for the belief-based framework underpinning attitude. An online survey of 262 participants was therefore conducted to determine whether the dimensional salience approach could also be applied to the belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm. Results revealed that motivations to comply were greater for salient, as opposed to non-salient, social referents. The belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm was therefore represented by evaluating normative belief ratings for salient social referents. This modified framework was found to predict subjective norm, although predictions were greater when participants were forced to select five salient social referents rather than being free to select any number of social referents. These findings validate the use of the dimensional salience approach for examining the belief-based frameworks underpinning subjective norm. As such, this approach provides a complete solution to addressing the expectancy-value muddle in the TRA.

  14. Expectant versus aggressive management in severe preeclampsia remote from term.

    PubMed

    Sarsam, D S; Shamden, M; Al Wazan, R

    2008-09-01

    Our study aims to compare neonatal and maternal outcomes between expectant (or conservative) and aggressive (or immediate) management in cases with severe preclampsia remote from term. This is a comparative study conducted at Al-Batool Teaching Hospital in Mosul City, Iraq, from April 2003 to August 2004. A total of 74 singleton pregnancies complicated by severe preeclampsia with gestational age of 24-34 weeks were studied during this period. The criteria used for the diagnosis of severe preeclampsia were in accordance with the guidelines of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists. All the patients were counselled for expectant management. 39 patients were delivered immediately due to refusal of expectant management either by the patient or the attending physician. The other 35 patients were managed expectantly; this group was followed-up and carefully monitored for a period ranging from 72 hours to 18 days. Neonatal parameters, neonatal outcome and maternal outcome were compared between the two groups. The mean value of pregnancy prolongation was 9.2 days. Median gestational age for the first group was 29 weeks, and for the second group, it was 30 weeks. Regarding neonatal parameters, the expectantly-managed group had a higher Apgar score at one minute (3.56 +/- 1.72 vs. 5.05 +/- 1.77, p-value equals 0.001), lower mean days of hospitalisation in the neonatal intensive care unit (6.83 +/- 5.38 vs. 4.50 +/- 3.46, p-value equals 0.03), with a lower incidence of neonatal and maternal complications. Expectant management is recommended in patients with severe preeclampsia remote from term, after proper selection of patients and careful monitoring.

  15. Cultural dissonance among generations: a solution-focused approach with East Asian elders and their families.

    PubMed

    Lee, Mo Yee; Mjelde-Mossey, LeeAnn

    2004-10-01

    In traditional East Asian cultures, high value is assigned to family harmony and filial piety coupled with the expectation that elders will be honored and obeyed. A lifetime of such expectations shapes how elders perceive their role and status in the family. Problems can arise when younger, less traditional, generations do not share these expectations. This article describes a solution-focused approach that facilitates the family in creating a beneficial harmony in situations of cultural dissonance. Family members are empowered to draw on personal strengths in which multiple worldviews and values of individual members are recognized, incorporated, and negotiated.

  16. The value of identity: olfactory notes on orbitofrontal cortex function.

    PubMed

    Gottfried, Jay A; Zelano, Christina

    2011-12-01

    Neuroscientific research has emphatically promoted the idea that the key function of the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is to encode value. Associative learning studies indicate that OFC representations of stimulus cues reflect the predictive value of expected outcomes. Neuroeconomic studies suggest that the OFC distills abstract representations of value from discrete commodities to optimize choice. Although value-based models provide good explanatory power for many different findings, these models are typically disconnected from the very stimuli and commodities giving rise to those value representations. Little provision is made, either theoretically or empirically, for the necessary cooperative role of object identity, without which value becomes orphaned from its source. As a step toward remediating the value of identity, this review provides a focused olfactory survey of OFC research, including new work from our lab, to highlight the elemental involvement of this region in stimulus-specific predictive coding of both perceptual outcomes and expected values. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  17. Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

    2017-01-01

    Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1 to 10 points with the goal…

  18. Min and Max Exponential Extreme Interval Values and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jance, Marsha; Thomopoulos, Nick

    2009-01-01

    The extreme interval values and statistics (expected value, median, mode, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation) for the smallest (min) and largest (max) values of exponentially distributed variables with parameter ? = 1 are examined for different observation (sample) sizes. An extreme interval value g[subscript a] is defined as a…

  19. Real time detection of farm-level swine mycobacteriosis outbreak using time series modeling of the number of condemned intestines in abattoirs.

    PubMed

    Adachi, Yasumoto; Makita, Kohei

    2015-09-01

    Mycobacteriosis in swine is a common zoonosis found in abattoirs during meat inspections, and the veterinary authority is expected to inform the producer for corrective actions when an outbreak is detected. The expected value of the number of condemned carcasses due to mycobacteriosis therefore would be a useful threshold to detect an outbreak, and the present study aims to develop such an expected value through time series modeling. The model was developed using eight years of inspection data (2003 to 2010) obtained at 2 abattoirs of the Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Japan. The resulting model was validated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years with the actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012. For the modeling, at first, periodicities were checked using Fast Fourier Transformation, and the ensemble average profiles for weekly periodicities were calculated. An Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the residual of the ensemble average on the basis of minimum Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The sum of the ARIMA model and the weekly ensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value. During 2011 and 2012, the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values 20 times. All of these events were associated with the slaughtering of pigs from three producers with the highest rate of condemnation due to mycobacteriosis.

  20. Model for forecasting Olea europaea L. airborne pollen in South-West Andalusia, Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galán, C.; Cariñanos, Paloma; García-Mozo, Herminia; Alcázar, Purificación; Domínguez-Vilches, Eugenio

    Data on predicted average and maximum airborne pollen concentrations and the dates on which these maximum values are expected are of undoubted value to allergists and allergy sufferers, as well as to agronomists. This paper reports on the development of predictive models for calculating total annual pollen output, on the basis of pollen and weather data compiled over the last 19 years (1982-2000) for Córdoba (Spain). Models were tested in order to predict the 2000 pollen season; in addition, and in view of the heavy rainfall recorded in spring 2000, the 1982-1998 data set was used to test the model for 1999. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that the variables exerting the greatest influence on the pollen index were rainfall in March and temperatures over the months prior to the flowering period. For prediction of maximum values and dates on which these values might be expected, the start of the pollen season was used as an additional independent variable. Temperature proved the best variable for this prediction. Results improved when the 5-day moving average was taken into account. Testing of the predictive model for 1999 and 2000 yielded fairly similar results. In both cases, the difference between expected and observed pollen data was no greater than 10%. However, significant differences were recorded between forecast and expected maximum and minimum values, owing to the influence of rainfall during the flowering period.

  1. Industrial process surveillance system

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C.; Wegerich, Stephan W.; Singer, Ralph M.; Mott, Jack E.

    1998-01-01

    A system and method for monitoring an industrial process and/or industrial data source. The system includes generating time varying data from industrial data sources, processing the data to obtain time correlation of the data, determining the range of data, determining learned states of normal operation and using these states to generate expected values, comparing the expected values to current actual values to identify a current state of the process closest to a learned, normal state; generating a set of modeled data, and processing the modeled data to identify a data pattern and generating an alarm upon detecting a deviation from normalcy.

  2. Industrial process surveillance system

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Wegerich, S.W.; Singer, R.M.; Mott, J.E.

    1998-06-09

    A system and method are disclosed for monitoring an industrial process and/or industrial data source. The system includes generating time varying data from industrial data sources, processing the data to obtain time correlation of the data, determining the range of data, determining learned states of normal operation and using these states to generate expected values, comparing the expected values to current actual values to identify a current state of the process closest to a learned, normal state; generating a set of modeled data, and processing the modeled data to identify a data pattern and generating an alarm upon detecting a deviation from normalcy. 96 figs.

  3. Industrial Process Surveillance System

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C.; Wegerich, Stephan W; Singer, Ralph M.; Mott, Jack E.

    2001-01-30

    A system and method for monitoring an industrial process and/or industrial data source. The system includes generating time varying data from industrial data sources, processing the data to obtain time correlation of the data, determining the range of data, determining learned states of normal operation and using these states to generate expected values, comparing the expected values to current actual values to identify a current state of the process closest to a learned, normal state; generating a set of modeled data, and processing the modeled data to identify a data pattern and generating an alarm upon detecting a deviation from normalcy.

  4. A calculation for radial expectation values of helium like actinide ions (Z=89-93)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ürer, G., E-mail: gurer@sakarya.edu.tr; Arslan, M., E-mail: murat.arslan4@ogr.sakarya.edu.tr; Balkaya, E., E-mail: eda.balkaya@ogr.sakarya.edu.tr

    2016-03-25

    Radial expectation values, , for helium like actinides (Z{sub Ac}=89, Z{sub Th}=90, Z{sub Pa}=91, Z{sub U}=92, and Z{sub Np}=93) are reported using the Multiconfiguration Hartree-Fock (MCHF) within the framework Breit-Pauli corrections. Atomic data as energy levels, wavelengths, weighted oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for allowed and forbidden transitions need these calculations. The obtained results are compared available works.

  5. Stochastic sampling of quadrature grids for the evaluation of vibrational expectation values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López Ríos, Pablo; Monserrat, Bartomeu; Needs, Richard J.

    2018-02-01

    The thermal lines method for the evaluation of vibrational expectation values of electronic observables [B. Monserrat, Phys. Rev. B 93, 014302 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevB.93.014302] was recently proposed as a physically motivated approximation offering balance between the accuracy of direct Monte Carlo integration and the low computational cost of using local quadratic approximations. In this paper we reformulate thermal lines as a stochastic implementation of quadrature-grid integration, analyze the analytical form of its bias, and extend the method to multiple-point quadrature grids applicable to any factorizable harmonic or anharmonic nuclear wave function. The bias incurred by thermal lines is found to depend on the local form of the expectation value, and we demonstrate that the use of finer quadrature grids along selected modes can eliminate this bias, while still offering an ˜30 % lower computational cost than direct Monte Carlo integration in our tests.

  6. A customer satisfaction model for a utility service industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jamil, Jastini Mohd; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd; Ramli, Razamin

    2016-08-01

    This paper explores the effect of Image, Customer Expectation, Perceived Quality and Perceived Value on Customer Satisfaction, and to investigate the effect of Image and Customer Satisfaction on Customer Loyalty of mobile phone provider in Malaysia. The result of this research is based on data gathered online from international students in one of the public university in Malaysia. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) has been used to analyze the data that have been collected from the international students' perceptions. The results found that Image and Perceived Quality have significant impact on Customer Satisfaction. Image and Customer Satisfaction ware also found to have significantly related to Customer Loyalty. However, no significant impact has been found between Customer Expectation with Customer Satisfaction, Perceived Value with Customer Satisfaction, and Customer Expectation with Perceived Value. We hope that the findings may assist the mobile phone provider in production and promotion of their services.

  7. Robust optimization model and algorithm for railway freight center location problem in uncertain environment.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xing-Cai; He, Shi-Wei; Song, Rui; Sun, Yang; Li, Hao-Dong

    2014-01-01

    Railway freight center location problem is an important issue in railway freight transport programming. This paper focuses on the railway freight center location problem in uncertain environment. Seeing that the expected value model ignores the negative influence of disadvantageous scenarios, a robust optimization model was proposed. The robust optimization model takes expected cost and deviation value of the scenarios as the objective. A cloud adaptive clonal selection algorithm (C-ACSA) was presented. It combines adaptive clonal selection algorithm with Cloud Model which can improve the convergence rate. Design of the code and progress of the algorithm were proposed. Result of the example demonstrates the model and algorithm are effective. Compared with the expected value cases, the amount of disadvantageous scenarios in robust model reduces from 163 to 21, which prove the result of robust model is more reliable.

  8. Drude Weight, Meissner Weight, Rotational Inertia of Bosonic Superfluids: How Are They Distinguished?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hetényi, Balázs

    2014-03-01

    The Drude weight, the quantity which distinguishes metals from insulators, is proportional to the second derivative of the ground state energy with respect to a flux at zero flux. The same expression also appears in the definition of the Meissner weight, the quantity which indicates superconductivity, as well as in the definition of non-classical rotational inertia of bosonic superfluids. It is shown that the difference between these quantities depends on the interpretation of the average momentum term, which can be understood as the expectation value of the total momentum (Drude weight), the sum of the expectation values of single momenta (rotational inertia of a superfluid), or the sum over expectation values of momentum pairs (Meissner weight). This distinction appears naturally when the current from which the particular transport quantity is derived is cast in terms of shift operators.

  9. The value of value of information: best informing research design and prioritization using current methods.

    PubMed

    Eckermann, Simon; Karnon, Jon; Willan, Andrew R

    2010-01-01

    Value of information (VOI) methods have been proposed as a systematic approach to inform optimal research design and prioritization. Four related questions arise that VOI methods could address. (i) Is further research for a health technology assessment (HTA) potentially worthwhile? (ii) Is the cost of a given research design less than its expected value? (iii) What is the optimal research design for an HTA? (iv) How can research funding be best prioritized across alternative HTAs? Following Occam's razor, we consider the usefulness of VOI methods in informing questions 1-4 relative to their simplicity of use. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) with current information, while simple to calculate, is shown to provide neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition to address question 1, given that what EVPI needs to exceed varies with the cost of research design, which can vary from very large down to negligible. Hence, for any given HTA, EVPI does not discriminate, as it can be large and further research not worthwhile or small and further research worthwhile. In contrast, each of questions 1-4 are shown to be fully addressed (necessary and sufficient) where VOI methods are applied to maximize expected value of sample information (EVSI) minus expected costs across designs. In comparing complexity in use of VOI methods, applying the central limit theorem (CLT) simplifies analysis to enable easy estimation of EVSI and optimal overall research design, and has been shown to outperform bootstrapping, particularly with small samples. Consequently, VOI methods applying the CLT to inform optimal overall research design satisfy Occam's razor in both improving decision making and reducing complexity. Furthermore, they enable consideration of relevant decision contexts, including option value and opportunity cost of delay, time, imperfect implementation and optimal design across jurisdictions. More complex VOI methods such as bootstrapping of the expected value of partial EVPI may have potential value in refining overall research design. However, Occam's razor must be seriously considered in application of these VOI methods, given their increased complexity and current limitations in informing decision making, with restriction to EVPI rather than EVSI and not allowing for important decision-making contexts. Initial use of CLT methods to focus these more complex partial VOI methods towards where they may be useful in refining optimal overall trial design is suggested. Integrating CLT methods with such partial VOI methods to allow estimation of partial EVSI is suggested in future research to add value to the current VOI toolkit.

  10. The Values of Australian Activists

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellerman, D. A.; Feather, N. T.

    1976-01-01

    Relevant literature on student activism was reviewed so as to discover leads for predictions about differences between activists and non-activists in the way they might be expected to rank the terminal and instrumental values from Rokeach's Value Survey. (Editor)

  11. The FASB explores accounting for future cash flows.

    PubMed

    Luecke, R W; Meeting, D T

    2001-03-01

    The FASB's Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 7, Using Cash Flow Information and Present Value in Accounting Measurements (Statement No. 7), presents the board's views regarding how cash-flow information and present values should be used in accounting for future cash flows when information on fair values is not available. Statement No. 7 presents new concepts regarding how an asset's present value should be calculated and when the interest method of allocation should be used. The FASB proposes a present-value method that takes into account the degree of uncertainty associated with future cash flows among different assets and liabilities. The FASB also suggests that rather than use estimated cash flows (in which a single set of cash flows and a single interest rate is used to reflect the risk associated with an asset or liability), accountants should use expected cash flows (in which all expectations about possible cash flows are used) in calculating present values.

  12. The Long-Term Effects of Early Parent Involvement and Parent Expectation in the USA

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Froiland, John Mark; Peterson, Aubrey; Davison, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    Building on social-cognitive theory and the expectancy-value theory, this study indicated that early parent expectations for children’s post-secondary educational attainment have a stronger effect on 8th-grade achievement than home-based parental involvement. With a nationally representative sample of kindergarten students and their parents in the…

  13. The Effects of Education Compatibility and Technological Expectancy on E-Learning Acceptance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Jian-Liang

    2011-01-01

    Discerning what influences a student's acceptance of e-learning is still unclear and has not been well investigated. On the basis of the expectancy-value theory, much effort has been put into identifying the effectual factors regarding the technological expectancy of students. However, aside from technological usage, the adoption of an e-learning…

  14. The timber-supply potential of intensive management in upland oak forests of Ohio

    Treesearch

    David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick; Owen W. Herrick

    1973-01-01

    Two alternative programs of intensive timber management were defined for Ohio's oak-hickory forests. Their potentials were evaluated by comparing the expected yields and yield values of each program with those expected from a continuation of current management practices. Neither program would produce large increases in timber yield. But the expected gains in yield...

  15. The value of foresight: how prospection affects decision-making.

    PubMed

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread.

  16. The Value of Foresight: How Prospection Affects Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread. PMID:21747755

  17. Development of "Task Value" Instrument for Biology as a School Subject

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Köksal, Mustafa Serdar; Yaman, Süleyman

    2013-01-01

    The expectancy-value model of motivation states that individuals' choice, persistence and performances are related to their beliefs about how much they value task. Despite the importance of "task value" in learning biology, lack of the instruments on task value for high school biology courses for practical use indicated requirement to…

  18. Pricing for Higher Education Institutions: A Value-Based Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Amir, Amizawati Mohd; Auzair, Sofiah Md; Maelah, Ruhanita; Ahmad, Azlina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose the concept of higher education institutions (HEIs) offering educational services based on value for money. The value is determined based on customers' (i.e. students) expectations of the service and the costs in comparison to the competitors. Understanding the value and creating customer value are…

  19. Creating an Agent Based Framework to Maximize Information Utility

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    information utility may be a qualitative description of the information, where one would expect the adjectives low value, fair value , high value. For...operations. Information in this category may have a fair value rating. Finally, many seemingly unrelated events, such as reports of snipers in buildings

  20. Engine monitoring display study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornsby, Mary E.

    1992-01-01

    The current study is part of a larger NASA effort to develop displays for an engine-monitoring system to enable the crew to monitor engine parameter trends more effectively. The objective was to evaluate the operational utility of adding three types of information to the basic Boeing Engine Indicating and Crew Alerting System (EICAS) display formats: alphanumeric alerting messages for engine parameters whose values exceed caution or warning limits; alphanumeric messages to monitor engine parameters that deviate from expected values; and a graphic depiction of the range of expected values for current conditions. Ten training and line pilots each flew 15 simulated flight scenarios with five variants of the basic EICAS format; these variants included different combinations of the added information. The pilots detected engine problems more quickly when engine alerting messages were included in the display; adding a graphic depiction of the range of expected values did not affect detection speed. The pilots rated both types of alphanumeric messages (alert and monitor parameter) as more useful and easier to interpret than the graphic depiction. Integrating engine parameter messages into the EICAS alerting system appears to be both useful and preferred.

  1. The Expected Net Present Value of Developing Weight Management Drugs in the Context of Drug Safety Litigation.

    PubMed

    Chawla, Anita; Carls, Ginger; Deng, Edmund; Tuttle, Edward

    2015-07-01

    Following withdrawals, failures, and significant litigation settlements, drug product launches in the anti-obesity category slowed despite a large and growing unmet need. Litigation concerns, a more risk-averse regulatory policy, and the difficulty of developing a product with a compelling risk-benefit profile in this category may have limited innovators' expected return on investment and restricted investment in this therapeutic area. The objective of the study was to estimate perceived manufacturer risk associated with product safety litigation and increased development costs vs. revenue expectations on anticipated return on investment and to determine which scenarios might change a manufacturer's investment decision. Expected net present value of a weight-management drug entering pre-clinical trials was calculated for a range of scenarios representing evolving expectations of development costs, revenue, and litigation risk over the past 25 years. These three factors were based on published estimates, historical data, and analogs from other therapeutic areas. The main driver in expected net present value calculations is expected revenue, particularly if one assumes that litigation risk and demand are positively correlated. Changes in development costs associated with increased regulatory concern with potential safety issues for the past 25 years likely did not impact investment decisions. Regulatory policy and litigation risk both played a role in anti-obesity drug development; however, product revenue-reflecting efficacy at acceptable levels of safety-was by far the most important factor. To date, relatively modest sales associated with recent product introductions suggest that developing a product that is sufficiently efficacious with an acceptable level of safety continues to be the primary challenge in this market.

  2. Judging Risk and Return of Financial Assets.

    PubMed

    Ganzach

    2000-11-01

    This article examines the relationship between judgments of risk and judgments of expected return of financial assets. It suggests that for unfamiliar assets, both risk and return judgments are derived from global preference toward the asset, whereas for familiar assets, these judgments tend to be derived from the ecological values of the asset's risk and expected return-their values in the financial markets. In addition, the article examines the role of causal schemas and the role of risk attitudes in mediating the relationships between judgments of risk and return of familiar and unfamiliar assets. Conceptual and practical questions concerning the nature, the meaning, and the assessment of risk and expected return are discussed. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  3. Brookian stratigraphic plays in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska (NPRA)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Houseknecht, David W.

    2003-01-01

    The Brookian megasequence in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) includes bottomset and clinoform seismic facies of the Torok Formation (mostly Albian age) and generally coeval, topset seismic facies of the uppermost Torok Formation and the Nanushuk Group. These strata are part of a composite total petroleum system involving hydrocarbons expelled from three stratigraphic intervals of source rocks, the Lower Cretaceous gamma-ray zone (GRZ), the Lower Jurassic Kingak Shale, and the Triassic Shublik Formation. The potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Brookian megasequence in NPRA was assessed by defining five plays (assessment units), one in the topset seismic facies and four in the bottomset-clinoform seismic facies. The Brookian Topset Play is estimated to contain between 60 (95-percent probability) and 465 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 239 million barrels. The Brookian Topset Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 679 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 192 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform North Play, which extends across northern NPRA, is estimated to contain between 538 (95-percent probability) and 2,257 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 1,306 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform North Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 1,969 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 674 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform Central Play, which extends across central NPRA, is estimated to contain between 299 (95-percent probability) and 1,849 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 973 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform Central Play is estimated to contain between 1,806 (95-percent probability) and 10,076 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 5,405 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform South-Shallow Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 1,254 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 508 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform South-Shallow Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 5,809 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 2,405 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform South-Deep Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 8,796 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 3,788 billion cubic feet. No technically recoverable oil is assessed in the Brookian Clinoform South-Deep Play, as it lies at depths that are entirely in the gas window. Among the Brookian stratigraphic plays in NPRA, the Brookian Clinoform North Play and the Brookian Clinoform Central Play are most likely to be objectives of exploration activity in the near-term future because they are estimated to contain multiple oil accumulations larger than 128 million barrels technically recoverable oil, and because some of those accumulations may occur near existing infrastructure in the eastern parts of the plays. The other Brookian stratigraphic plays are not likely to be the focus of exploration activity because they are estimated to contain maximum accumulation sizes that are smaller, but they may be an objective of satellite exploration if infrastructure is extended into the play areas. The total volumes of natural gas estimated to occur in B

  4. Value-added service in health care institutions.

    PubMed

    Umiker, W

    1996-12-01

    In today's highly competitive atmosphere, the survival of health care institutions depends largely on the ability to provide value-added services (VAS) at the lowest possible cost. Managers must identify their customers and delineate the needs and expectation of those customers. A strategy for satisfying these needs and expectations is essential. While technical advances and reasonable charges are important, a successful "high-tech," "high touch" approach demands the combination of process reengineering and employee training in customer relations.

  5. Relationship between Attitude towards Technical Education and Academic Achievement in Mathematics and Science of the First and Second Year High School Students, Caritas Don Bosco School, SY 2002-2003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magno, Carlo

    2003-01-01

    Background: This study made use of the "Model of Academic Choice" by Meece et al. (1982). It is a general model of academic choice, expectation and value of attitude leading to achievement. The model links achievement with constructs of expectation of success on a task and the subjective value of the task influencing the attitude of…

  6. Approximating local observables on projected entangled pair states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwarz, M.; Buerschaper, O.; Eisert, J.

    2017-06-01

    Tensor network states are for good reasons believed to capture ground states of gapped local Hamiltonians arising in the condensed matter context, states which are in turn expected to satisfy an entanglement area law. However, the computational hardness of contracting projected entangled pair states in two- and higher-dimensional systems is often seen as a significant obstacle when devising higher-dimensional variants of the density-matrix renormalization group method. In this work, we show that for those projected entangled pair states that are expected to provide good approximations of such ground states of local Hamiltonians, one can compute local expectation values in quasipolynomial time. We therefore provide a complexity-theoretic justification of why state-of-the-art numerical tools work so well in practice. We finally turn to the computation of local expectation values on quantum computers, providing a meaningful application for a small-scale quantum computer.

  7. Determining Value in Higher Education: The Future of Instructional Technology in a Wal-Mart Economy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tremblay, Wilfred

    1992-01-01

    Discusses value and the economy and examines the changing definition of educational value regarding higher education. Trends in instructional technology resulting from changes in expected educational value are described, including resource sharing, specialization, market expansion, privatization, easier human-machine interfaces, feedback systems,…

  8. Unpacking the Value of Writing: Exploring College Students' Perceptions of Writing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zumbrunn, Sharon; Carter, Yvette M.; Conklin, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    This study explored college students' beliefs about the value of writing, their past experiences with writing, and the relationship between students' prior experiences with writing and writing value beliefs. One hundred fourteen undergraduates from a public Southeastern university participated in the study. Using expectancy-value theory as a…

  9. 48 CFR 873.114 - Best value pool.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... value pool is expected to exceed the number at which an efficient, timely, and economical competition... that the best value pool can be limited for purposes of making an efficient, timely, and economical... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Best value pool. 873.114...

  10. Interval-based reconstruction for uncertainty quantification in PET

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kucharczak, Florentin; Loquin, Kevin; Buvat, Irène; Strauss, Olivier; Mariano-Goulart, Denis

    2018-02-01

    A new directed interval-based tomographic reconstruction algorithm, called non-additive interval based expectation maximization (NIBEM) is presented. It uses non-additive modeling of the forward operator that provides intervals instead of single-valued projections. The detailed approach is an extension of the maximum likelihood—expectation maximization algorithm based on intervals. The main motivation for this extension is that the resulting intervals have appealing properties for estimating the statistical uncertainty associated with the reconstructed activity values. After reviewing previously published theoretical concepts related to interval-based projectors, this paper describes the NIBEM algorithm and gives examples that highlight the properties and advantages of this interval valued reconstruction.

  11. Children's probability intuitions: understanding the expected value of complex gambles.

    PubMed

    Schlottmann, A

    2001-01-01

    Two experiments used Information Integration Theory to study how children judge expected value of complex gambles in which alternative outcomes have different prizes. Six-year-olds, 9-year-olds and adults (N = 73 in Study 1, N = 28 in Study 2) saw chance games that involved shaking a marble in a bicolored tube. One prize was won if the marble stopped on blue, another if it stopped on yellow. Children judged how happy a puppet playing the game would be, with the prizes and probability of the blue and yellow outcomes varied factorially. Three main results appeared in both studies: First, participants in all age groups used the normatively prescribed multiplication rule for integrating probability and value of each individual outcome--a striking finding because multiplicative reasoning does not usually appear before 8 years of age in other domains. Second, all age groups based judgment of overall expected value meaningfully on both alternative outcomes, but there were individual differences--many participants deviated from the normative addition rule, showing risk seeking and risk averse patterns of judgment similar to the risk attitudes often found with adults. Third, even the youngest children took probability to be an abstract rather than physical property of the game. Overall, in contrast to the traditional view, the present results demonstrate functional understanding of probability and expected value in children as young as 5 or 6. These results contribute to the growing evidence on children's intuitive reasoning competence. This intuition can, on the one hand, support surprisingly precocious performance in young children, but it may also contribute to the biases evident in adults' judgment and decision.

  12. Internet embeddedness: links with online health information seeking, expectancy value/quality of health information websites, and Internet usage patterns.

    PubMed

    Leung, Louis

    2008-10-01

    To see how the Internet is actually embedded in our lives, this exploratory study examines how Internet users search the Web for important information, especially health or medical information, to make critical decisions, and the perception of how intimately our lives are embedded in the Internet intersects with patterns of health information seeking online and the expected quality of health information websites. Data from a probability sample of 569 Internet users found four types of commonly sought health information clusters online which included information on (a) health improvement, (b) medical treatment, (c) family health, and (d) health issues that are difficult to talk about. Results also show that behavior or behavioral intentions in health information seeking are in fact either a function of value expectancy or the evaluation of health information websites. More importantly, people who often go to the Internet for health information and have high expectations of the value and quality of health information websites (especially in terms of reliability, relevance/context, and interaction) tend to be those who are more likely to perceive the Internet as playing an important role in life decisions or rate the Internet as more embedded in their lives.

  13. Model for economic evaluation of high energy gas fracturing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Engi, D.

    1984-05-01

    The HEGF/NPV model has been developed and adapted for interactive microcomputer calculations of the economic consequences of reservoir stimulation by high energy gas fracturing (HEGF) in naturally fractured formations. This model makes use of three individual models: a model of the stimulated reservoir, a model of the gas flow in this reservoir, and a model of the discounted expected net cash flow (net present value, or NPV) associated with the enhanced gas production. Nominal values of the input parameters, based on observed data and reasonable estimates, are used to calculate the initial expected increase in the average daily rate ofmore » production resulting from the Meigs County HEGF stimulation experiment. Agreement with the observed initial increase in rate is good. On the basis of this calculation, production from the Meigs County Well is not expected to be profitable, but the HEGF/NPV model probably provides conservative results. Furthermore, analyses of the sensitivity of the expected NPV to variations in the values of certain reservoir parameters suggest that the use of HEGF stimulation in somewhat more favorable formations is potentially profitable. 6 references, 4 figures, 3 tables.« less

  14. Analytical probabilistic modeling of RBE-weighted dose for ion therapy.

    PubMed

    Wieser, H P; Hennig, P; Wahl, N; Bangert, M

    2017-11-10

    Particle therapy is especially prone to uncertainties. This issue is usually addressed with uncertainty quantification and minimization techniques based on scenario sampling. For proton therapy, however, it was recently shown that it is also possible to use closed-form computations based on analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) for this purpose. APM yields unique features compared to sampling-based approaches, motivating further research in this context. This paper demonstrates the application of APM for intensity-modulated carbon ion therapy to quantify the influence of setup and range uncertainties on the RBE-weighted dose. In particular, we derive analytical forms for the nonlinear computations of the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose by propagating linearly correlated Gaussian input uncertainties through a pencil beam dose calculation algorithm. Both exact and approximation formulas are presented for the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose and are subsequently studied in-depth for a one-dimensional carbon ion spread-out Bragg peak. With V and B being the number of voxels and pencil beams, respectively, the proposed approximations induce only a marginal loss of accuracy while lowering the computational complexity from order [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] for the expectation value and from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] for the variance of the RBE-weighted dose. Moreover, we evaluated the approximated calculation of the expectation value and standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose in combination with a probabilistic effect-based optimization on three patient cases considering carbon ions as radiation modality against sampled references. The resulting global γ-pass rates (2 mm,2%) are [Formula: see text]99.15% for the expectation value and [Formula: see text]94.95% for the standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose, respectively. We applied the derived analytical model to carbon ion treatment planning, although the concept is in general applicable to other ion species considering a variable RBE.

  15. Analytical probabilistic modeling of RBE-weighted dose for ion therapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wieser, H. P.; Hennig, P.; Wahl, N.; Bangert, M.

    2017-12-01

    Particle therapy is especially prone to uncertainties. This issue is usually addressed with uncertainty quantification and minimization techniques based on scenario sampling. For proton therapy, however, it was recently shown that it is also possible to use closed-form computations based on analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) for this purpose. APM yields unique features compared to sampling-based approaches, motivating further research in this context. This paper demonstrates the application of APM for intensity-modulated carbon ion therapy to quantify the influence of setup and range uncertainties on the RBE-weighted dose. In particular, we derive analytical forms for the nonlinear computations of the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose by propagating linearly correlated Gaussian input uncertainties through a pencil beam dose calculation algorithm. Both exact and approximation formulas are presented for the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose and are subsequently studied in-depth for a one-dimensional carbon ion spread-out Bragg peak. With V and B being the number of voxels and pencil beams, respectively, the proposed approximations induce only a marginal loss of accuracy while lowering the computational complexity from order O(V × B^2) to O(V × B) for the expectation value and from O(V × B^4) to O(V × B^2) for the variance of the RBE-weighted dose. Moreover, we evaluated the approximated calculation of the expectation value and standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose in combination with a probabilistic effect-based optimization on three patient cases considering carbon ions as radiation modality against sampled references. The resulting global γ-pass rates (2 mm,2%) are > 99.15% for the expectation value and > 94.95% for the standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose, respectively. We applied the derived analytical model to carbon ion treatment planning, although the concept is in general applicable to other ion species considering a variable RBE.

  16. Life Expectancy and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Maternal Mortality Declines. NBER Working Paper No. 13947

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jayachandran, Seema; Lleras-Muney, Adriana

    2008-01-01

    Longer life expectancy should encourage human capital accumulation, since a longer time horizon increases the value of investments that pay out over time. Previous work has been unable to determine the empirical importance of this life-expectancy effect due to the difficulty of isolating it from other effects of health on education. We examine a…

  17. Chern-Simons expectation values and quantum horizons from loop quantum gravity and the Duflo map.

    PubMed

    Sahlmann, Hanno; Thiemann, Thomas

    2012-03-16

    We report on a new approach to the calculation of Chern-Simons theory expectation values, using the mathematical underpinnings of loop quantum gravity, as well as the Duflo map, a quantization map for functions on Lie algebras. These new developments can be used in the quantum theory for certain types of black hole horizons, and they may offer new insights for loop quantum gravity, Chern-Simons theory and the theory of quantum groups.

  18. The social value of clinical research.

    PubMed

    Habets, Michelle G J L; van Delden, Johannes J M; Bredenoord, Annelien L

    2014-09-05

    International documents on ethical conduct in clinical research have in common the principle that potential harms to research participants must be proportional to anticipated benefits. The anticipated benefits that can justify human research consist of direct benefits to the research participant, and societal benefits, also called social value. In first-in-human research, no direct benefits are expected and the benefit component of the risks-benefit assessment thus merely exists in social value. The concept social value is ambiguous by nature and is used in numerous ways in the research ethics literature. Because social value justifies involving human participants, especially in early human trials, this is problematic. Our analysis and interpretation of the concept social value has led to three proposals. First, as no direct benefits are expected for the research participants in first-in-human trials, we believe it is better to discuss a risk- value assessment instead of a risk - benefit assessment. This will also make explicit the necessity to have a clear and common use for the concept social value. Second, to avoid confusion we propose to limit the concept social value to the intervention tested. It is the expected improvement the intervention can bring to the wellbeing of (future) patients or society that is referred to when we speak about social value. For the sole purpose of gaining knowledge, we should not expose humans to potential harm; the ultimate justification of involving humans in research lies in the anticipated social value of the intervention. Third, at the moment only the validity of the clinical research proposal is a prerequisite for research to take place. We recommend making the anticipated social value a prerequisite as well. In this paper we analyze the use of the concept social value in research ethics. Despite its unavoidable ambiguity, we aim to find a best use of the concept, subject to its role in justifying involving humans in first-in-human research.

  19. Aircraft system modeling error and control error

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kulkarni, Nilesh V. (Inventor); Kaneshige, John T. (Inventor); Krishnakumar, Kalmanje S. (Inventor); Burken, John J. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A method for modeling error-driven adaptive control of an aircraft. Normal aircraft plant dynamics is modeled, using an original plant description in which a controller responds to a tracking error e(k) to drive the component to a normal reference value according to an asymptote curve. Where the system senses that (1) at least one aircraft plant component is experiencing an excursion and (2) the return of this component value toward its reference value is not proceeding according to the expected controller characteristics, neural network (NN) modeling of aircraft plant operation may be changed. However, if (1) is satisfied but the error component is returning toward its reference value according to expected controller characteristics, the NN will continue to model operation of the aircraft plant according to an original description.

  20. Motivational processes from expectancy-value theory are associated with variability in the error positivity in young children

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Matthew H.; Marulis, Loren M.; Grammer, Jennie K.; Morrison, Frederick J.; Gehring, William J.

    2016-01-01

    Motivational beliefs and values influence how children approach challenging activities. The present study explores motivational processes from an expectancy-value theory framework by studying children's mistakes and their responses to them by focusing on two ERP components, the error-related negativity (ERN) and error positivity (Pe). Motivation was assessed using a child-friendly challenge puzzle task and a brief interview measure prior to ERP testing. Data from 50 four- to six-year-old children revealed that greater perceived competence beliefs were related to a larger Pe, while stronger intrinsic task value beliefs were associated with a smaller Pe. Motivation was unrelated to the ERN. Individual differences in early motivational processes may reflect electrophysiological activity related to conscious error awareness. PMID:27898304

  1. Predictors of father-son communication about sexuality.

    PubMed

    Lehr, Sally T; Demi, Alice S; Dilorio, Colleen; Facteau, Jeffrey

    2005-05-01

    Examining the factors that influence adolescents' sexual behaviors is crucial for understanding why they often engage in risky sexual behaviors. Using social cognitive theory, we examined predictors of father-son communication about sexuality. Fathers (N=155) of adolescent sons completed a survey measuring 12 variables, including self-efficacy and outcome expectations. We found that (a) son's pubertal development, father's sex-based values, father's education; father's communication with his father, outcome expectations, and general communication accounted for 36% of the variance in information sharing communication and (b) son's pubertal development, outcome expectations, general communication, and father-son contact accounted for 20% of the variance in values sharing communication. Study findings can aid professionals in designing guidelines for programs to promote father-son general communication and sex-based communication.

  2. Does food complexity have a role in eliciting expectations of satiating capacity?

    PubMed

    Marcano, Johanna; Morales, Diana; Vélez-Ruiz, Jorge F; Fiszman, Susana

    2015-09-01

    New strategies for formulating healthy, balanced food with enhanced expected satiating capacity are a hot topic. The present work tests the hypothesis that adding complexity to food will result in higher expectations of satiating capacity. Different kinds of "visible" particles (wheat bran, ground coconut, flaxseeds and oat meal) were added to cheese pies with the aim of increasing the complexity of both their appearance and their texture. Two more basic recipes were also prepared with no particles added. Instrumental texture measurements, complexity and expected satiating capacity consumer scoring and sensory profiling of the six pie formulations were performed. In addition, the consumers were asked to write down the characteristics they took into account in their pie complexity scores. For pies with very similar instrumental TPA hardness and resistance to penetration values, a clear trend that emerged was that the more complex the texture, the higher the satiating capacity expectations. The qualitative analysis of the terms mentioned by consumers was of great value for understanding the concepts underlying the appraisal of the samples' complexity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Selecting Value-Added Models for Postsecondary Institutional Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steedle, Jeffrey T.

    2012-01-01

    Value-added scores from tests of college learning indicate how score gains compare to those expected from students of similar entering academic ability. Unfortunately, the choice of value-added model can impact results, and this makes it difficult to determine which results to trust. The research presented here demonstrates how value-added models…

  4. Incorporating molecular breeding values with variable call rates into genetic evaluations

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A partial genotype for an animal can result from panels with low call rates used to calculate a molecular breeding value. A molecular breeding value can still be calculated using a partial genotype by replacing the missing marker covariates with their mean value. This approach is expected to chang...

  5. Estimation of the geochemical threshold and its statistical significance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miesch, A.T.

    1981-01-01

    A statistic is proposed for estimating the geochemical threshold and its statistical significance, or it may be used to identify a group of extreme values that can be tested for significance by other means. The statistic is the maximum gap between adjacent values in an ordered array after each gap has been adjusted for the expected frequency. The values in the ordered array are geochemical values transformed by either ln(?? - ??) or ln(?? - ??) and then standardized so that the mean is zero and the variance is unity. The expected frequency is taken from a fitted normal curve with unit area. The midpoint of an adjusted gap that exceeds the corresponding critical value may be taken as an estimate of the geochemical threshold, and the associated probability indicates the likelihood that the threshold separates two geochemical populations. The adjusted gap test may fail to identify threshold values if the variation tends to be continuous from background values to the higher values that reflect mineralized ground. However, the test will serve to identify other anomalies that may be too subtle to have been noted by other means. ?? 1981.

  6. What is the value of conducting a trial of r-tPA for the treatment of mild stroke patients?

    PubMed

    Guzauskas, Gregory F; Chen, Er; Lalla, Deepa; Yu, Elaine; Tayama, Darren; Veenstra, David L

    2017-02-01

    Background The Phase IIIb, Double-Blind, Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Alteplase in Patients With Mild Stroke: Rapidly Improving Symptoms and Minor Neurologic Deficits (PRISMS) trial will assess r-tPA in ischemic stroke patients who present with mild deficits (i.e. mild stroke). Aims To assess PRISMS's societal value in clarifying the optimal care for patients with mild ischemic stroke. Methods A value of information (VOI) decision model was developed to compare the outcomes of mild stroke patients treated vs. not treated with r-tPA. Model inputs were derived from a subset of Third International Stroke Trial patients, a recent meta-analysis of r-tPA trials, expert opinion, and other published sources. VOI analyses were also used to assess the expected US societal value of the PRISMS trial and the expected value of reducing uncertainty in key trial estimates. Results The expected net societal value of the PRISMS trial was approximately $210 million ($160 m-$260 m), representing a six-fold return on investment. The value of reducing uncertainty in r-tPA efficacy was approximately $150 million ($100 m-$200 m), while reducing uncertainty in r-tPA safety (increased risk for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage) did not add additional value in comparison. Conclusions Developing a better understanding of the outcomes of r-tPA treatment in patients with mild ischemic stroke will provide tremendous societal value by clarifying current uncertainty around treatment effectiveness. Enrollment in the PRISMS trial for patients presenting with mild ischemic stroke within 0-3 h of symptom onset should be highly encouraged.

  7. The Affective Impact of Financial Skewness on Neural Activity and Choice

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Charlene C.; Bossaerts, Peter; Knutson, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Few finance theories consider the influence of “skewness” (or large and asymmetric but unlikely outcomes) on financial choice. We investigated the impact of skewed gambles on subjects' neural activity, self-reported affective responses, and subsequent preferences using functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI). Neurally, skewed gambles elicited more anterior insula activation than symmetric gambles equated for expected value and variance, and positively skewed gambles also specifically elicited more nucleus accumbens (NAcc) activation than negatively skewed gambles. Affectively, positively skewed gambles elicited more positive arousal and negatively skewed gambles elicited more negative arousal than symmetric gambles equated for expected value and variance. Subjects also preferred positively skewed gambles more, but negatively skewed gambles less than symmetric gambles of equal expected value. Individual differences in both NAcc activity and positive arousal predicted preferences for positively skewed gambles. These findings support an anticipatory affect account in which statistical properties of gambles—including skewness—can influence neural activity, affective responses, and ultimately, choice. PMID:21347239

  8. The origins of deference: when do people prefer lower status?

    PubMed

    Anderson, Cameron; Willer, Robb; Kilduff, Gavin J; Brown, Courtney E

    2012-05-01

    Although the desire for high status is considered universal, prior research suggests individuals often opt for lower status positions. Why would anyone favor a position of apparent disadvantage? In 5 studies, we found that the broad construct of status striving can be broken up into two conceptions: one based on rank, the other on respect. While individuals might universally desire high levels of respect, we find that they vary widely in the extent to which they strive for high-status rank, with many individuals opting for middle- or low-status rank. The status rank that individuals preferred depended on their self-perceived value to the group: when they believed they provided less value, they preferred lower status rank. Mediation and moderation analyses suggest that beliefs about others' expectations were the primary driver of these effects. Individuals who believed they provided little value to their group inferred that others expected them to occupy a lower status position. Individuals in turn conformed to these perceived expectations, accepting lower status rank in such settings.

  9. Brand strengthening decision making delved from brand-contacts in health services organizations.

    PubMed

    Takayanagi, Kazue; Hagihara, Yukiko

    2007-01-01

    Under the Japanese Government's strong enforcement of Japanese national medical cost reduction, only hospitals which emphasize patient values, and creation of brands according to them can survive. This study extracted patients' expectations as brand from Campbell's Brand-Contact lists. The authors also proposed to add Brand-strengthening strategies both for short-term strategies (large improvement is not required) and for long-term strategies (restructuring hardware and systems). This method would enable hospitals to collect customers' underlying expectations, and would create high-value brands. Trustful medical service would provide mutual and synergetic medical care effects. It is already considered out of date to conduct qualitative patient satisfaction interviews on current medical services to current customers. It is the only way to survive that hospitals themselves produce their original brands to increase patient loyalty and customer satisfaction. In the process, customer value should be reconsidered from both aspects of the quality of clinical care and of other medically related services. Then hospitals would be able to satisfy both customers' output and process expectations.

  10. Using a multilevel mediation model to examine the effects of National Board Certified Teachers on high school science students' cognitive engagement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaleski, Diana Janet

    2011-12-01

    The National Board for Professional Teaching Standards claims to identify effective educators through their certification process. However, research concerning National Board Certified Teachers (NBCT) is inconclusive. The purpose of this study was to examine the direct and indirect effects of NBCT on the cognitive engagement of high school science students. Multilevel mediation modeling was used to examine the direct and indirect effects of teacher certification on students' cognitive engagement in science and whether students' expectancies for success and perceptions of task value mediate these effects. Students of NBCT were found to be more cognitively engaged in science than students of non-NBCT; however, students' expectancies for success and perceptions of task value did not mediate this relationship. In addition, students with more positive expectancies for success and perceptions of task value were more cognitively engaged in science. These findings support the proposition that the National Board certification process at least identifies effective educators.

  11. Accuracy of Orthognathic Surgical Outcomes Using 2- and 3-Dimensional Landmarks-The Case for Apples and Oranges?

    PubMed

    Borba, Alexandre Meireles; José da Silva, Everton; Fernandes da Silva, André Luis; Han, Michael D; da Graça Naclério-Homem, Maria; Miloro, Michael

    2018-01-12

    To verify predicted versus obtained surgical movements in 2-dimensional (2D) and 3-dimensional (3D) measurements and compare the equivalence between these methods. A retrospective observational study of bimaxillary orthognathic surgeries was performed. Postoperative cone-beam computed tomographic (CBCT) scans were superimposed on preoperative scans and a lateral cephalometric radiograph was generated from each CBCT scan. After identification of the sella, nasion, and upper central incisor tip landmarks on 2D and 3D images, actual and planned movements were compared by cephalometric measurements. One-sample t test was used to statistically evaluate results, with expected mean discrepancy values ranging from 0 to 2 mm. Equivalence of 2D and 3D values was compared using paired t test. The final sample of 46 cases showed by 2D cephalometry that differences between actual and planned movements in the horizontal axis were statistically relevant for expected means of 0, 0.5, and 2 mm without relevance for expected means of 1 and 1.5 mm; vertical movements were statistically relevant for expected means of 0 and 0.5 mm without relevance for expected means of 1, 1.5, and 2 mm. For 3D cephalometry in the horizontal axis, there were statistically relevant differences for expected means of 0, 1.5, and 2 mm without relevance for expected means of 0.5 and 1 mm; vertical movements showed statistically relevant differences for expected means of 0, 0.5, 1.5 and 2 mm without relevance for the expected mean of 1 mm. Comparison of 2D and 3D values displayed statistical differences for the horizontal and vertical axes. Comparison of 2D and 3D surgical outcome assessments should be performed with caution because there seems to be a difference in acceptable levels of accuracy between these 2 methods of evaluation. Moreover, 3D accuracy studies should no longer rely on a 2-mm level of discrepancy but on a 1-mm level. Copyright © 2018 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Methods of integrating Islamic values in teaching biology for shaping attitude and character

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Listyono; Supardi, K. I.; Hindarto, N.; Ridlo, S.

    2018-03-01

    Learning is expected to develop the potential of learners to have the spiritual attitude: moral strength, self-control, personality, intelligence, noble character, as well as the skills needed by themselves, society, and nation. Implementation of role and morale in learning is an alternative way which is expected to answer the challenge. The solution offered is to inject student with religious material Islamic in learning biology. The content value of materials teaching biology includes terms of practical value, religious values, daily life value, socio-political value, and the value of art. In Islamic religious values (Qur'an and Hadith) various methods can touch human feelings, souls, and generate motivation. Integrating learning with Islamic value can be done by the deductive or inductive approach. The appropriate method of integration is the amtsal (analog) method, hiwar (dialog) method, targhib & tarhib (encouragement & warning) method, and example method (giving a noble role model / good example). The right strategy in integrating Islamic values is outlined in the design of lesson plan. The integration of Islamic values in lesson plan will facilitate teachers to build students' character because Islamic values can be implemented in every learning steps so students will be accustomed to receiving the character value in this integrated learning.

  13. Overtaking method based on sand-sifter mechanism: Why do optimistic value functions find optimal solutions in multi-armed bandit problems?

    PubMed

    Ochi, Kento; Kamiura, Moto

    2015-09-01

    A multi-armed bandit problem is a search problem on which a learning agent must select the optimal arm among multiple slot machines generating random rewards. UCB algorithm is one of the most popular methods to solve multi-armed bandit problems. It achieves logarithmic regret performance by coordinating balance between exploration and exploitation. Since UCB algorithms, researchers have empirically known that optimistic value functions exhibit good performance in multi-armed bandit problems. The terms optimistic or optimism might suggest that the value function is sufficiently larger than the sample mean of rewards. The first definition of UCB algorithm is focused on the optimization of regret, and it is not directly based on the optimism of a value function. We need to think the reason why the optimism derives good performance in multi-armed bandit problems. In the present article, we propose a new method, which is called Overtaking method, to solve multi-armed bandit problems. The value function of the proposed method is defined as an upper bound of a confidence interval with respect to an estimator of expected value of reward: the value function asymptotically approaches to the expected value of reward from the upper bound. If the value function is larger than the expected value under the asymptote, then the learning agent is almost sure to be able to obtain the optimal arm. This structure is called sand-sifter mechanism, which has no regrowth of value function of suboptimal arms. It means that the learning agent can play only the current best arm in each time step. Consequently the proposed method achieves high accuracy rate and low regret and some value functions of it can outperform UCB algorithms. This study suggests the advantage of optimism of agents in uncertain environment by one of the simplest frameworks. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Using expectancy-value theory to explore aspects of motivation and engagement in inquiry-based learning in primary mathematics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

    2017-03-01

    Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and Wigfield 2002) provides a framework through which children's beliefs about their mathematical competency and their expectation of success are able to be examined and interpreted, alongside students' perceptions of task value. In this paper, Eccles and Wigfield's expectancy-value model has been adopted as a lens to examine a complete unit of mathematical inquiry as undertaken with a class of 9-10-year-old students. Data were sourced from a unit (˜10 lessons) based on geometry and geometrical reasoning. The units were videotaped in full, transcribed, and along with field notes and student work samples, subjected to theoretical coding using the dimensions of Eccles and Wigfield's model. The findings provide insight into aspects of IBL that may impact student motivation and engagement. The study is limited to a single unit; however, the results provide a depth of insight into IBL in practice while identifying features of IBL that may be instrumental in bringing about increased motivation and engagement of students in mathematics. Identifying potentially motivating aspects of IBL enable these to be integrated and more closely studied in IBL practises.

  15. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  16. Examination of a perceived cost model of employees' negative feedback-seeking behavior.

    PubMed

    Lu, Kuo-Ming; Pan, Su-Ying; Cheng, Jen-Wei

    2011-01-01

    The present study extends the feedback-seeking behavior literature by investigating how supervisor-related antecedents (i.e., supervisors' expert power, reflected appraisals of supervisors, and supervisors' emotional intelligence) influence subordinates' negative feedback-seeking behavior (NFSB) through different cost/value perceptions (i.e., expectancy value, self-presentation cost, and ego cost). Using data collected from 216 supervisor-subordinate dyads from various industries in Taiwan, we employ structural equation modeling analysis to test our hypotheses. The results show that expectancy value mediates the relationship between supervisor expert power and subordinates' NFSB. Moreover, self-presentation cost mediates the relationship between reflected appraisals of supervisors' and subordinates' NFSB. Theoretical and practical implications of this study are also discussed.

  17. Wind velocity-change (gust rise) criteria for wind turbine design

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cliff, W.C.; Fichtl, G.H.

    1978-07-01

    A closed-form equation is derived for root mean square (rms) value of velocity change (gust rise) that occurs over the swept area of wind turbine rotor systems and an equation for rms value of velocity change that occurs at a single point in space. These formulas confirm the intuitive assumption that a large system will encounter a less severe environment than a small system when both are placed at the same location. Assuming a normal probability density function for the velocity differences, an equation is given for calculating the expected number of velocity differences that will occur in 1 hrmore » and will be larger than an arbitrary value. A formula is presented that gives the expected number of velocity differences larger than an arbitrary value that will be encountered during the design life of a wind turbine. In addition, a method for calculating the largest velocity difference expected during the life of a turbine and a formula for estimating the risk of exceeding a given velocity difference during the life of the structure are given. The equations presented are based upon general atmospheric boundary-layer conditions and do not include information regarding events such as tornados, hurricanes, etc.« less

  18. Planning the FUSE Mission Using the SOVA Algorithm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lanzi, James; Heatwole, Scott; Ward, Philip R.; Civeit, Thomas; Calvani, Humberto; Kruk, Jeffrey W.; Suchkov, Anatoly

    2011-01-01

    Three documents discuss the Sustainable Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA) algorithm and software as used to plan tasks (principally, scientific observations and associated maneuvers) for the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite. SOVA is a means of managing risk in a complex system, based on a concept of computing the expected return value of a candidate ordered set of tasks as a product of pre-assigned task values and assessments of attainability made against qualitatively defined strategic objectives. For the FUSE mission, SOVA autonomously assembles a week-long schedule of target observations and associated maneuvers so as to maximize the expected scientific return value while keeping the satellite stable, managing the angular momentum of spacecraft attitude- control reaction wheels, and striving for other strategic objectives. A six-degree-of-freedom model of the spacecraft is used in simulating the tasks, and the attainability of a task is calculated at each step by use of strategic objectives as defined by use of fuzzy inference systems. SOVA utilizes a variant of a graph-search algorithm known as the A* search algorithm to assemble the tasks into a week-long target schedule, using the expected scientific return value to guide the search.

  19. Dissociating motivation from reward in human striatal activity.

    PubMed

    Miller, Eric M; Shankar, Maya U; Knutson, Brian; McClure, Samuel M

    2014-05-01

    Neural activity in the striatum has consistently been shown to scale with the value of anticipated rewards. As a result, it is common across a number of neuroscientific subdiscliplines to associate activation in the striatum with anticipation of a rewarding outcome or a positive emotional state. However, most studies have failed to dissociate expected value from the motivation associated with seeking a reward. Although motivation generally scales positively with increases in potential reward, there are circumstances in which this linkage does not apply. The current study dissociates value-related activation from that induced by motivation alone by employing a task in which motivation increased as anticipated reward decreased. This design reverses the typical relationship between motivation and reward, allowing us to differentially investigate fMRI BOLD responses that scale with each. We report that activity scaled differently with value and motivation across the striatum. Specifically, responses in the caudate and putamen increased with motivation, whereas nucleus accumbens activity increased with expected reward. Consistent with this, self-report ratings indicated a positive association between caudate and putamen activity and arousal, whereas activity in the nucleus accumbens was more associated with liking. We conclude that there exist regional limits on inferring reward expectation from striatal activation.

  20. Dissociating Motivation from Reward in Human Striatal Activity

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Eric M.; Shankar, Maya U.; Knutson, Brian; McClure, Samuel M.

    2018-01-01

    Neural activity in the striatum has consistently been shown to scale with the value of anticipated rewards. As a result, it is common across a number of neuroscientific subdiscliplines to associate activation in the striatum with anticipation of a rewarding outcome or a positive emotional state. However, most studies have failed to dissociate expected value from the motivation associated with seeking a reward. Although motivation generally scales positively with increases in potential reward, there are circumstances in which this linkage does not apply. The current study dissociates value-related activation from that induced by motivation alone by employing a task in which motivation increased as anticipated reward decreased. This design reverses the typical relationship between motivation and reward, allowing us to differentially investigate fMRI BOLD responses that scale with each. We report that activity scaled differently with value and motivation across the striatum. Specifically, responses in the caudate and putamen increased with motivation, whereas nucleus accumbens activity increased with expected reward. Consistent with this, self-report ratings indicated a positive association between caudate and putamen activity and arousal, whereas activity in the nucleus accumbens was more associated with liking. We conclude that there exist regional limits on inferring reward expectation from striatal activation. PMID:24345173

  1. Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Kenji; Hsu, Ming

    2017-07-19

    Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376972-11$15.00/0.

  2. Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. PMID:28626019

  3. Using Expected Value to Introduce the Laplace Transform

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lutzer, Carl V.

    2015-01-01

    We propose an introduction to the Laplace transform in which Riemann sums are used to approximate the expected net change in a function, assuming that it quantifies a process that can terminate at random. We assume only a basic understanding of probability.

  4. Working life tables, Bangladesh 1981.

    PubMed

    Matin, K A

    1986-06-01

    Data from the 1981 Bangladesh Population Census were used to construct life tables for working men and women. Bangladesh has a dependency burden of 109 dependents to 100 economically active population. Labor force participation rates in 1981 were 74.1/100 population aged 10 years and over for males and 4.3/100 population aged 10 years and over for females. The age-specific economic activity rates provided the essential link in translating life table data to working life table data. It was calculated that a newborn Bangladesh male had a working life expectancy of 37.8 years and an overall life expectancy of 50.0 years; working life expectancy peaks at 44.2 years at 10 years of age. A newborn female has a working life expectancy of 1.8 years and an overall life expectancy of 49.0 years; a maximum working life expectancy of 2.4 years is obtained at 10 years of age. In the period 1962-81, male working life expectancy registered a slight decline at all ages, while female working life expectancy increased by about 6 months for ages up to 30 years. Mortality accounts for a loss of about 10% of gross years of active life in the 10-69-year goups and 20% in the 10-79-year age group. The male working life expectancy values for Bangladesh in 1981 correspond well with those found in India in 1971, Pakistan in 1978, and Sri Lanka in 1971. However, there is wide divergency in terms of female working life expectancy values: such rates were significantly higher in Sri Lanka and India than in Bangladesh up to the age of 30 years, after which point there was little divergence.

  5. Food portion size area mediates energy effects on expected anxiety in anorexia nervosa.

    PubMed

    Herzog, Musya; Douglas, Christopher R; Kissileff, Harry R; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Halmi, Katherine Ann

    2017-05-01

    A study in which adolescent patients with anorexia nervosa (n = 24) rated their expected food-anxiety in response to images of portions of food (potatoes, rice pizza, and M&Ms) showed that lower energy-dense foods elicited higher expected anxiety per kilocalorie than higher energy-dense foods. However, the area of the portion sizes could be an unmeasured variable driving the anxiety response. To test the hypothesis that area mediates the effects of energy content on expected anxiety, the same images of portions were measured in area (cm 2 ), and standardized values of expected anxiety were regressed from standardized values of energy and area of portions. With regression of expected anxiety from portion size in area, M&Ms, which had the highest energy density of the four foods, elicited the highest expected anxiety slope (β = 1.75), which was significantly different from the expected anxiety slopes of the other three foods (β range = 0.67 - 0.96). Area was confirmed as a mediator of energy effects from loss of significance of the slopes when area was added to the regression of expected anxiety from energy x food. When expected anxiety was regressed from food, area, energy and area by energy interaction, area accounted for 5.7 times more variance than energy, and β for area (0.7) was significantly larger (by 0.52, SE = 0.15, t = 3.4, p = 0.0007) than β for energy (0.19). Area could be a learned cue for the energy content of food portions, and thus, for weight gain potential, which triggers anxiety in patients with anorexia nervosa. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Value Orientations: A Study of Black College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thornton, Clarence H.

    2004-01-01

    The present investigation describes the manner in which a group of southern black college students structure their value preferences. Based upon prior research, especially among white college students, it was expected that our sampled respondents would embrace values associated with economic and materialistic success. However, results obtained…

  7. Urban Middle School Students' Perceptions of the Value and Difficulty of Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sandoval, William A.; Harven, Aletha M.

    2011-01-01

    Following their participation in a guided-inquiry unit, 129 seventh-graders from five diverse urban middle schools were asked about their perceptions of specific inquiry tasks, from an expectancy-value framework. Students were asked to rate the interest value, utility value, and task difficulty of (a) data collection design; (b) explanation; (c)…

  8. From Bench to Bedside: A Communal Utility Value Intervention to Enhance Students' Biomedical Science Motivation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Elizabeth R.; Smith, Jessi L.; Thoman, Dustin B.; Allen, Jill M.; Muragishi, Gregg

    2015-01-01

    Motivating students to pursue science careers is a top priority among many science educators. We add to the growing literature by examining the impact of a utility value intervention to enhance student's perceptions that biomedical science affords important utility work values. Using an expectancy-value perspective, we identified and tested 2…

  9. Applying the Expectancy-Value Model to understand health values.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xu-Hao; Xie, Feng; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Thumboo, Julian; Li, Shu-Chuen

    2008-03-01

    Expectancy-Value Model (EVM) is the most structured model in psychology to predict attitudes by measuring attitudinal attributes (AAs) and relevant external variables. Because health value could be categorized as attitude, we aimed to apply EVM to explore its usefulness in explaining variances in health values and investigate underlying factors. Focus group discussion was carried out to identify the most common and significant AAs toward 5 different health states (coded as 11111, 11121, 21221, 32323, and 33333 in EuroQol Five-Dimension (EQ-5D) descriptive system). AAs were measured in a sum of multiplications of subjective probability (expectancy) and perceived value of attributes with 7-point Likert scales. Health values were measured using visual analog scales (VAS, range 0-1). External variables (age, sex, ethnicity, education, housing, marital status, and concurrent chronic diseases) were also incorporated into survey questionnaire distributed by convenience sampling among eligible respondents. Univariate analyses were used to identify external variables causing significant differences in VAS. Multiple linear regression model (MLR) and hierarchical regression model were used to investigate the explanatory power of AAs and possible significant external variable(s) separately or in combination, for each individual health state and a mixed scenario of five states, respectively. Four AAs were identified, namely, "worsening your quality of life in terms of health" (WQoL), "adding a burden to your family" (BTF), "making you less independent" (MLI) and "unable to work or study" (UWS). Data were analyzed based on 232 respondents (mean [SD] age: 27.7 [15.07] years, 49.1% female). Health values varied significantly across 5 health states, ranging from 0.12 (33333) to 0.97 (11111). With no significant external variables identified, EVM explained up to 62% of the variances in health values across 5 health states. The explanatory power of 4 AAs were found to be between 13% and 28% in separate MLR models (P < 0.05). When data were analyzed for each health state, variances in health values became small and explanatory power of EVM was reduced to a range between 8% and 23%. EVM was useful in explaining variances of health values and predicting important factors. Its power to explain small variances might be restricted due to limitations of 7-point Likert scale to measure AAs accurately. With further improvement and validation of a compatible continuous scale for more accurate measurement, EVM is expected to explain health values to a larger extent.

  10. Global value of GM rice: a review of expected agronomic and consumer benefits.

    PubMed

    Demont, Matty; Stein, Alexander J

    2013-06-25

    Unlike the other major crops, no genetically modified (GM) varieties of rice have been commercialized at a large scale. Within the next 2-3 years new transgenic rice varieties could be ready for regulatory approval and subsequent commercialization, though. Given the importance of rice as staple crop for many of the world's poorest people, this will have implications for the alleviation of poverty, hunger and malnutrition. Thus, policy-makers need to be aware of the potential benefits of GM rice. We provide an overview of the literature and discuss the evidence on expected agronomic and consumer benefits of genetically engineered rice. We find that while GM rice with improved agronomic traits could deliver benefits similar to already commercialized biotechnology crops, expected benefits of consumer traits could be higher by an order of magnitude. By aggregating the expected annual benefits, we estimate the global value of GM rice to be US$64 billion per year. This is only an indicative value, as more GM varieties will become available in future. Nevertheless, such a figure can help guide policy-makers when deciding on the approval or funding of biotechnology crops and it may also raise awareness among consumers about what is at stake for their societies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Effort, success, and nonuse determine arm choice

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Yupeng; Kim, Sujin; Yoshioka, Toshinori; Gordon, James; Osu, Rieko

    2015-01-01

    How do humans choose one arm or the other to reach single targets in front of the body? Current theories of reward-driven decisionmaking predict that choice results from a comparison of “action values,” which are the expected rewards for possible actions in a given state. In addition, current theories of motor control predict that in planning arm movements, humans minimize an expected motor cost that balances motor effort and endpoint accuracy. Here, we test the hypotheses that arm choice is determined by comparison of action values comprising expected effort and expected task success for each arm, as well as a handedness bias. Right-handed subjects, in either a large or small target condition, were first instructed to use each hand in turn to shoot through an array of targets and then to choose either hand to shoot through the same targets. Effort was estimated via inverse kinematics and dynamics. A mixed-effects logistic-regression analysis showed that, as predicted, both expected effort and expected success predicted choice, as did arm use in the preceding trial. Finally, individual parameter estimation showed that the handedness bias correlated with mean difference between right- and left-arm success, leading to overall lower use of the left arm. We discuss our results in light of arm nonuse in individuals' poststroke. PMID:25948869

  12. Linkage Disequilibrium in a Finite Population That Is Partially Selfing

    PubMed Central

    Golding, G. B.; Strobeck, C.

    1980-01-01

    The linkage disequilibrium expected in a finite, partially selfing population is analyzed, assuming the infinite allele model. Formulas for the expected sum of squares of the linkage disequilibria and the squared standard linkage disequilibrium are derived from the equilibrium values of sixteen inbreeding coefficients required to describe the behavior of the system. These formulas are identical to those obtained with random mating if the effective population size Ne = (1-½S)N and the effective recombination value re = (1-S)r/(1-½S), where S is the proportion of selfing, are substituted for the population size and the recombination value. Therefore, the effect of partial selfing at equilibrium is to reduce the population size by a factor 1-½S and the recombination value by a factor (1-S)/(1-½S). PMID:17249017

  13. Motivational processes from expectancy-value theory are associated with variability in the error positivity in young children.

    PubMed

    Kim, Matthew H; Marulis, Loren M; Grammer, Jennie K; Morrison, Frederick J; Gehring, William J

    2017-03-01

    Motivational beliefs and values influence how children approach challenging activities. The current study explored motivational processes from an expectancy-value theory framework by studying children's mistakes and their responses to them by focusing on two event-related potential (ERP) components: the error-related negativity (ERN) and the error positivity (Pe). Motivation was assessed using a child-friendly challenge puzzle task and a brief interview measure prior to ERP testing. Data from 50 4- to 6-year-old children revealed that greater perceived competence beliefs were related to a larger Pe, whereas stronger intrinsic task value beliefs were associated with a smaller Pe. Motivation was unrelated to the ERN. Individual differences in early motivational processes may reflect electrophysiological activity related to conscious error awareness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Modeled ground water age distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  15. Dopamine Receptor-Specific Contributions to the Computation of Value.

    PubMed

    Burke, Christopher J; Soutschek, Alexander; Weber, Susanna; Raja Beharelle, Anjali; Fehr, Ernst; Haker, Helene; Tobler, Philippe N

    2018-05-01

    Dopamine is thought to play a crucial role in value-based decision making. However, the specific contributions of different dopamine receptor subtypes to the computation of subjective value remain unknown. Here we demonstrate how the balance between D1 and D2 dopamine receptor subtypes shapes subjective value computation during risky decision making. We administered the D2 receptor antagonist amisulpride or placebo before participants made choices between risky options. Compared with placebo, D2 receptor blockade resulted in more frequent choice of higher risk and higher expected value options. Using a novel model fitting procedure, we concurrently estimated the three parameters that define individual risk attitude according to an influential theoretical account of risky decision making (prospect theory). This analysis revealed that the observed reduction in risk aversion under amisulpride was driven by increased sensitivity to reward magnitude and decreased distortion of outcome probability, resulting in more linear value coding. Our data suggest that different components that govern individual risk attitude are under dopaminergic control, such that D2 receptor blockade facilitates risk taking and expected value processing.

  16. A content analysis of parents' written communication of needs and expectations for emergency care of their children.

    PubMed

    Hoppa, Eric Christopher; Porter, Stephen C

    2011-06-01

    We investigated the potential value of information shared by parents on a written form designed to capture needs and expectations for care to an emergency department (ED) system that values patient-centeredness. We conducted a retrospective content analysis of parent-completed written forms collected during an improvement project focused on parent-provider communication in a pediatric ED. The primary outcome was potential value of the completed forms to a patient-centered ED system, defined as a form that was legible, included observations that mapped to medical problems, and included reasonable parental requests. We analyzed variation in potential value and other form attributes across a priori-defined visit type and acuity. Visit type was validated by a separate, blinded medical record review. A random stratified sample of 1008 forms was established from 6937 parent-completed forms collected during the 6-month improvement project; 995 of 1008 forms had matching medical records; 922 (92.7%) of 995 forms demonstrated potential value; 990 (99.5%) of 995 forms were legible; 948 (95.3%) of 995 forms included observations that mapped to a medical problem, and 599 (93.3%) of 642 forms contained reasonable parental requests. There was good agreement between the form and medical record for visit type (κ = 0.62). The potential value of forms did not vary significantly across visit type (88.2%-92.8%) or acuity (88.9%-93.4%). Information shared by parents on written forms designed to capture needs and expectations provides potential value to a patient-centered ED system. The high level of informational value is consistent across patient type and acuity level.

  17. Marital Expectations in Strong African American Marriages.

    PubMed

    Vaterlaus, J Mitchell; Skogrand, Linda; Chaney, Cassandra; Gahagan, Kassandra

    2017-12-01

    The current exploratory study utilized a family strengths framework to identify marital expectations in 39 strong African American heterosexual marriages. Couples reflected on their marital expectations over their 10 or more years of marriage. Three themes emerged through qualitative analysis and the participants' own words were used in the presentation of the themes. African Americans indicated that there was growth in marital expectations over time, with marital expectations often beginning with unrealistic expectations that grew into more realistic expectations as their marriages progressed. Participants also indicated that core expectations in strong African American marriages included open communication, congruent values, and positive treatment of spouse. Finally, participants explained there is an "I" in marriage as they discussed the importance of autonomy within their marital relationships. Results are discussed in association with existing research and theory. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

  18. Pre-service teachers' perceived value of general pedagogical knowledge for practice: Relations with epistemic beliefs and source beliefs.

    PubMed

    Merk, Samuel; Rosman, Tom; Rueß, Julia; Syring, Marcus; Schneider, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    Pre-service teachers tend to devalue general pedagogical knowledge (GPK) as a valid source for deriving successful teaching practices. The present study investigated beliefs about knowledge sources and epistemic beliefs as predictors for students' perceived value of GPK. Three pre-registered hypotheses were tested. We expected beliefs that GPK originates from scientific sources to entail a devaluation of GPK (Hypothesis 1). Concerning epistemic beliefs, we expected absolute beliefs to positively, and multiplistic beliefs to negatively predict pre-service teachers' perceived practical value of GPK (Hypothesis 2). Finally, we expected relationships between epistemic beliefs and pre-service teachers' perceived practical value of GPK to be confounded by epistemic trustworthiness, perceived topic-specific consistency and topic-specific familiarity (Hypothesis 3). In a study using a split plot design, 365 pre-service teachers were presented with four texts on different educational research topics. For each topic, three text versions were constructed. Even though they were invariant in content, these versions varied in a way that the results were allegedly generated by a practitioner, an expert or by means of a scientific study. Unexpectedly, results showed that research findings allegedly generated by means of a scientific study were associated with a higher perceived value of (topic-specific) GPK for practice (Hypothesis 1). As expected, the perceived value of GPK for practice was predicted by topic-specific multiplism and domain-specific absolutism (Hypothesis 2). These predictive effects were confounded by expertise evaluations of the source and the consistency of prior beliefs with the presented research results (Hypothesis 3). In summary, our results suggest that source beliefs might not be responsible for the devaluation of GPK, but that beliefs on the nature and structure of GPK (i.e., epistemic beliefs) might play an even more important role in this respect. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

  19. Pre-service teachers’ perceived value of general pedagogical knowledge for practice: Relations with epistemic beliefs and source beliefs

    PubMed Central

    Rosman, Tom; Rueß, Julia; Syring, Marcus; Schneider, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    Pre-service teachers tend to devalue general pedagogical knowledge (GPK) as a valid source for deriving successful teaching practices. The present study investigated beliefs about knowledge sources and epistemic beliefs as predictors for students’ perceived value of GPK. Three pre-registered hypotheses were tested. We expected beliefs that GPK originates from scientific sources to entail a devaluation of GPK (Hypothesis 1). Concerning epistemic beliefs, we expected absolute beliefs to positively, and multiplistic beliefs to negatively predict pre-service teachers’ perceived practical value of GPK (Hypothesis 2). Finally, we expected relationships between epistemic beliefs and pre-service teachers’ perceived practical value of GPK to be confounded by epistemic trustworthiness, perceived topic-specific consistency and topic-specific familiarity (Hypothesis 3). In a study using a split plot design, 365 pre-service teachers were presented with four texts on different educational research topics. For each topic, three text versions were constructed. Even though they were invariant in content, these versions varied in a way that the results were allegedly generated by a practitioner, an expert or by means of a scientific study. Unexpectedly, results showed that research findings allegedly generated by means of a scientific study were associated with a higher perceived value of (topic-specific) GPK for practice (Hypothesis 1). As expected, the perceived value of GPK for practice was predicted by topic-specific multiplism and domain-specific absolutism (Hypothesis 2). These predictive effects were confounded by expertise evaluations of the source and the consistency of prior beliefs with the presented research results (Hypothesis 3). In summary, our results suggest that source beliefs might not be responsible for the devaluation of GPK, but that beliefs on the nature and structure of GPK (i.e., epistemic beliefs) might play an even more important role in this respect. Implications for research and practice are discussed. PMID:28934358

  20. Decisions on Further Research for Predictive Biomarkers of High-Dose Alkylating Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Value of Information Analysis.

    PubMed

    Miquel-Cases, Anna; Retèl, Valesca P; van Harten, Wim H; Steuten, Lotte M G

    2016-06-01

    To inform decisions about the design and priority of further studies of emerging predictive biomarkers of high-dose alkylating chemotherapy (HDAC) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) using value-of-information analysis. A state transition model compared treating women with TNBC with current clinical practice and four biomarker strategies to personalize HDAC: 1) BRCA1-like profile by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) testing; 2) BRCA1-like profile by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) testing; 3) strategy 1 followed by X-inactive specific transcript gene (XIST) and tumor suppressor p53 binding protein (53BP1) testing; and 4) strategy 2 followed by XIST and 53BP1 testing, from a Dutch societal perspective and a 20-year time horizon. Input data came from literature and expert opinions. We assessed the expected value of partial perfect information, the expected value of sample information, and the expected net benefit of sampling for potential ancillary studies of an ongoing randomized controlled trial (RCT; NCT01057069). The expected value of partial perfect information indicated that further research should be prioritized to the parameter group including "biomarkers' prevalence, positive predictive value (PPV), and treatment response rates (TRRs) in biomarker-negative patients and patients with TNBC" (€639 million), followed by utilities (€48 million), costs (€40 million), and transition probabilities (TPs) (€30 million). By setting up four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT, data on 1) TP and MLPA prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 2) aCGH and aCGH/MLPA plus XIST and 53BP1 prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 3) utilities; and 4) costs could be simultaneously collected (optimal size = 3000). Further research on predictive biomarkers for HDAC should focus on gathering data on TPs, prevalence, PPV, TRRs, utilities, and costs from the four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Entrepreneurial Identity and Role Expectations in Nascent Entrepreneurship

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundqvist, Mats; Middleton, Karen Williams; Nowell, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Entrepreneurship has been defined as an individual?new value creation dialogic. To study how entrepreneurial identity evolves, this article, drawing on entrepreneurial learning theory, adds an entrepreneurial role expectations dialogic. Longitudinal evidence from nascent entrepreneurs working in venture teams on invention disclosures offers an…

  2. Only Above Barrier Energy Components Contribute to Barrier Traversal Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galapon, Eric A.

    2012-04-01

    A time of arrival operator across a square potential barrier is constructed. The expectation value of the barrier time of arrival operator for a sufficiently localized incident wave packet is compared with the expectation value of the free particle time of arrival operator for the same wave packet. The comparison yields an expression for the expected traversal time across the barrier. It is shown that only the above barrier components of the momentum distribution of the incident wave packet contribute to the barrier traversal time, implying that below the barrier components are transmitted without delay. This is consistent with the recent experiment in attosecond ionization in helium indicating that there is no real tunneling delay time [P. Eckle , Science 322, 1525 (2008)SCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1163439].

  3. Learned helplessness or expectancy-value? A psychological model for describing the experiences of different categories of unemployed people.

    PubMed

    García Rodríguez, Y

    1997-06-01

    Various studies have explored the relationships between unemployment and expectation of success, commitment to work, motivation, causal attributions, self-esteem and depression. A model is proposed that assumes the relationships between these variables are moderated by (a) whether or not the unemployed individual is seeking a first job and (b) age. It is proposed that for the unemployed who are seeking their first job (seekers) the relationships among these variables will be consistent with expectancy-value theory, but for those who have had a previous job (losers), the relationships will be more consistent with learned helplessness theory. It is further assumed that within this latter group the young losers will experience "universal helplessness" whereas the adult losers will experience "personal helplessness".

  4. A Brief Critique of the TATES Procedure.

    PubMed

    Aliev, Fazil; Salvatore, Jessica E; Agrawal, Arpana; Almasy, Laura; Chan, Grace; Edenberg, Howard J; Hesselbrock, Victor; Kuperman, Samuel; Meyers, Jacquelyn; Dick, Danielle M

    2018-03-01

    The Trait-based test that uses the Extended Simes procedure (TATES) was developed as a method for conducting multivariate GWAS for correlated phenotypes whose underlying genetic architecture is complex. In this paper, we provide a brief methodological critique of the TATES method using simulated examples and a mathematical proof. Our simulated examples using correlated phenotypes show that the Type I error rate is higher than expected, and that more TATES p values fall outside of the confidence interval relative to expectation. Thus the method may result in systematic inflation when used with correlated phenotypes. In a mathematical proof we further demonstrate that the distribution of TATES p values deviates from expectation in a manner indicative of inflation. Our findings indicate the need for caution when using TATES for multivariate GWAS of correlated phenotypes.

  5. Maternal role satisfaction: a new approach to assessing parenting.

    PubMed

    Ohashi, J P

    1992-01-01

    There is a need to study the maternal role beyond the child's first year of life. This investigation, using a framework of Locke's expectancy theory, describes the expectations, surprises, values, and satisfactions experienced by 102 mothers of teens. Content analysis of written narratives describing surprises encountered by these mothers is also presented. Data were collected by questionnaire. Findings offer support for Locke's theory in two ways: (1) expectation for role was less important than value attainment in predicting the level of maternal role satisfaction, and (2) encountering at least one positive surprise was associated with a higher level of maternal role satisfaction. These variables are offered as a useful nursing approach to the assessment of the parenting experience. Knowledge of the satisfactions reported may be encouraging to mothers anticipating this stage of life.

  6. Mexican American 7th Graders’ Future Work and Family Plans: Associations with Cultural Experiences and Adjustment

    PubMed Central

    Cansler, Emily; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Simpkins, Sandra D.

    2011-01-01

    We describe Mexican American 7th graders’ expectations for future work and family roles and investigate links between patterns of future expectations and adolescents’ cultural experiences and adjustment. Adolescents participated in home interviews and a series of seven nightly phone calls. Five unique patterns of adolescents’ future expectations were identified (N = 246): Career Oriented, Independent, Family Oriented, Early, and Inconsistent. Career Oriented adolescents had the highest socioeconomic status and contact with the U.S. (e.g., generation status) whereas Family Oriented adolescents had the lowest. Cultural orientations, values, and involvement also varied across groups. For example, Career Oriented adolescents reported significantly higher familism values compared to Inconsistent adolescents. Clusters also differed on adjustment: Career Oriented and Family Oriented adolescents reported higher parental warmth and less risky behavior compared to Independent and Inconsistent adolescents. Findings underscore the multi-faceted nature of adolescents’ future expectations and the diversity in cultural experiences among Mexican origin youth. PMID:23338812

  7. Decision making.

    PubMed

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  8. Consistency of the structure of Legendre transform in thermodynamics with the Kolmogorov-Nagumo average

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scarfone, A. M.; Matsuzoe, H.; Wada, T.

    2016-09-01

    We show the robustness of the structure of Legendre transform in thermodynamics against the replacement of the standard linear average with the Kolmogorov-Nagumo nonlinear average to evaluate the expectation values of the macroscopic physical observables. The consequence of this statement is twofold: 1) the relationships between the expectation values and the corresponding Lagrange multipliers still hold in the present formalism; 2) the universality of the Gibbs equation as well as other thermodynamic relations are unaffected by the structure of the average used in the theory.

  9. The Neurobiology of Reference-Dependent Value Computation

    PubMed Central

    De Martino, Benedetto; Kumaran, Dharshan; Holt, Beatrice; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2009-01-01

    A key focus of current research in neuroeconomics concerns how the human brain computes value. Although, value has generally been viewed as an absolute measure (e.g., expected value, reward magnitude), much evidence suggests that value is more often computed with respect to a changing reference point, rather than in isolation. Here, we present the results of a study aimed to dissociate brain regions involved in reference-independent (i.e., “absolute”) value computations, from those involved in value computations relative to a reference point. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, subjects acted as buyers and sellers during a market exchange of lottery tickets. At a behavioral level, we demonstrate that subjects systematically accorded a higher value to objects they owned relative to those they did not, an effect that results from a shift in reference point (i.e., status quo bias or endowment effect). Our results show that activity in orbitofrontal cortex and dorsal striatum track parameters such as the expected value of lottery tickets indicating the computation of reference-independent value. In contrast, activity in ventral striatum indexed the degree to which stated prices, at a within-subjects and between-subjects level, were distorted with respect to a reference point. The findings speak to the neurobiological underpinnings of reference dependency during real market value computations. PMID:19321780

  10. Beyond Test Scores: Adding Value to Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rothman, Robert

    2010-01-01

    At a time when teacher quality has emerged as a key factor in student learning, a statistical technique that determines the "value added" that teachers bring to student achievement is getting new scrutiny. Value-added measures compare students' growth in achievement to their expected growth, based on prior achievement and demographic…

  11. 26 CFR 1.475(c)-2 - Definitions-security.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... paragraph (c)(1) if, on the date the taxpayer acquires the residual interest, the present value of the anticipated tax liabilities associated with holding the interest exceeds the sum of— (i) The present value of the expected future distributions on the interest; and (ii) The present value of the anticipated tax...

  12. Task Values, Achievement Goals, and Interest: An Integrative Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hulleman, Chris S.; Durik, Amanda M.; Schweigert, Shaun B.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.

    2008-01-01

    The research presented in this article integrates 3 theoretical perspectives in the field of motivation: expectancy-value, achievement goals, and interest. The authors examined the antecedents (initial interest, achievement goals) and consequences (interest, performance) of task value judgments in 2 learning contexts: a college classroom and a…

  13. When Values and Behaviors Conflict: Immigrant BSW Students' Experiences Revealed

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calderwood, Kimberly; Harper, Kim; Ball, Kellie; Liang, David

    2009-01-01

    This qualitative study reveals the discomfort seven immigrant bachelor of social work students reported experiencing when the behaviors expected of them as Canadian social workers conflicted with their fundamental family values. Behaviorally, participants had assimilated to Canadian and to social work cultures; however, the values they held from…

  14. Making Connections: Replicating and Extending the Utility Value Intervention in the Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hulleman, Chris S.; Kosovich, Jeff J.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Daniel, David B.

    2017-01-01

    We replicated and extended prior research investigating a theoretically guided intervention based on expectancy-value theory designed to enhance student learning outcomes (e.g., Hulleman & Harackiewicz, 2009). First, we replicated prior work by demonstrating that the utility value intervention, which manipulated whether students made…

  15. Adolescent-Perceived Parent and Teacher Overestimation of Mathematics Ability: Developmental Implications for Students' Mathematics Task Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gniewosz, Burkhard; Watt, Helen M. G.

    2017-01-01

    This study examines whether and how student-perceived parents' and teachers' overestimation of students' own perceived mathematical ability can explain trajectories for adolescents' mathematical task values (intrinsic and utility) controlling for measured achievement, following expectancy-value and self-determination theories. Longitudinal data…

  16. 29 CFR 4010.2 - Definitions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., earliest retirement age at valuation date, ERISA, expected retirement age (XRA), fair market value, IRS...). Fair market value of the plan's assets means the fair market value of the plan's assets at the end of... not adopted a closing date, the calendar year. Funding target means, with respect to a plan for a plan...

  17. 32 CFR 644.44 - Fee appraisals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... governed by the net income it will produce. The fair market value may be estimated by developing the expected net income and processing it into a value estimate by use of an appropriate capitalization rate... present fair market value of the (insert estate appraisal) is subject only to all the assumptions and...

  18. 32 CFR 644.44 - Fee appraisals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... governed by the net income it will produce. The fair market value may be estimated by developing the expected net income and processing it into a value estimate by use of an appropriate capitalization rate... present fair market value of the (insert estate appraisal) is subject only to all the assumptions and...

  19. 32 CFR 644.44 - Fee appraisals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... governed by the net income it will produce. The fair market value may be estimated by developing the expected net income and processing it into a value estimate by use of an appropriate capitalization rate... present fair market value of the (insert estate appraisal) is subject only to all the assumptions and...

  20. 32 CFR 644.44 - Fee appraisals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... governed by the net income it will produce. The fair market value may be estimated by developing the expected net income and processing it into a value estimate by use of an appropriate capitalization rate... present fair market value of the (insert estate appraisal) is subject only to all the assumptions and...

  1. Gap analysis for forest productivity research investments

    Treesearch

    E.D. Vance

    2010-01-01

    The US forest sector is in the midst of an era of transition and opportunity. Expectations that forests are managed to sustain wildlife, water, soil, and other environmental values are increasing as are certification systems and state and national initiatives designed to insure those expectations are met.

  2. Love It or Leave It: Norwegian Students' Motivations and Expectations for Postcompulsory Physics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boe, Maria Vetleseter; Henriksen, Ellen Karoline

    2013-01-01

    In response to insufficient participation and female underrepresentation in physics education, this article uses questionnaire data from Norwegian physics students in upper secondary ("N" = 585) and first-year tertiary ("N" = 278) education to characterize the "physics choosers." An expectancy-value perspective is…

  3. Design, implementation, and first-year outcomes of a value-based drug formulary.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Sean D; Yeung, Kai; Vogeler, Carol; Ramsey, Scott D; Wong, Edward; Murphy, Chad O; Danielson, Dan; Veenstra, David L; Garrison, Louis P; Burke, Wylie; Watkins, John B

    2015-04-01

    Value-based insurance design attempts to align drug copayment tier with value rather than cost. Previous implementations of value-based insurance design have lowered copayments for drugs indicated for select "high value" conditions and have found modest improvements in medication adherence. However, these implementations have generally not resulted in cost savings to the health plan, suggesting a need for increased copayments for "low value" drugs. Further, previous implementations have assigned equal copayment reductions to all drugs within a therapeutic area without assessing the value of individual drugs. Aligning the individual drug's copayment to its specific value may yield greater clinical and economic benefits. In 2010, Premera Blue Cross, a large not-for-profit health plan in the Pacific Northwest, implemented a value-based drug formulary (VBF) that explicitly uses cost-effectiveness analyses after safety and efficacy reviews to estimate the value of each individual drug. Concurrently, Premera increased copayments for existing tiers. To describe and evaluate the design, implementation, and first-year outcomes of the VBF. We compared observed pharmacy cost per member per month in the year following the VBF implementation with 2 comparator groups: (1) observed pharmacy costs in the year prior to implementation, and (2) expected costs if no changes were made to the pharmacy benefits. Expected costs were generated by applying autoregressive integrated moving averages to pharmacy costs over the previous 36 months. We used an interrupted time series analysis to assess drug use and adherence among individuals with diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia compared with a group of members in plans that did not implement a VBF.  Pharmacy costs decreased by 3% compared with the 12 months prior and 11% compared with expected costs. There was no significant decline in medication use or adherence to treatments for patients with diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia. The VBF and copayment changes enabled pharmacy plan cost savings without negatively affecting utilization in key disease states.

  4. Some remarks on anthropic approaches to the strong CP problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dine, Michael; Haskins, Laurel Stephenson; Ubaldi, Lorenzo; Xu, Di

    2018-05-01

    The peculiar value of θ is a challenge to the notion of an anthropic landscape. We briefly review the possibility that a suitable axion might arise from an anthropic requirement of dark matter. We then consider an alternative suggestion of Kaloper and Terning that θ might be correlated with the cosmological constant. We note that in a landscape one expects that θ is determined by the expectation value of one or more axions. We discuss how a discretuum of values of θ might arise with an energy distribution dominated by QCD, and find the requirements to be quite stringent. Given such a discretuum, we find no circumstances where small θ might be selected by anthropic requirements on the cosmological constant.

  5. A promising new thermoelectric material - Ruthenium silicide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vining, Cronin B.; Mccormack, Joseph A.; Zoltan, Andrew; Zoltan, Leslie D.

    1991-01-01

    Experimental and theoretical efforts directed toward increasing thermoelectric figure of merit values by a factor of 2 or 3 have been encouraging in several respects. An accurate and detailed theoretical model developed for n-type silicon-germanium (SiGe) indicates that ZT values several times higher than currently available are expected under certain conditions. These new, high ZT materials are expected to be significantly different from SiGe, but not unreasonably so. Several promising candidate materials have been identified which may meet the conditions required by theory. One such candidate, ruthenium silicide, currently under development at JPL, has been estimated to have the potential to exhibit figure of merit values 4 times higher than conventional SiGe materials. Recent results are summarized.

  6. Value of Information Evaluation using Field Data

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Trainor-Guitton, W.

    2015-06-15

    Value of information (VOI) provides the ability to identify and prioritize useful information gathering for a geothermal prospect, either hydrothermal or for enhanced geothermal systems. Useful information provides a value greater than the cost of the information; wasteful information costs more than the expected value of the information. In this project we applied and refined VOI methodologies on selected geothermal prospects.

  7. Not by strength alone : children's conflict expectations follow the logic of the asymmetric war of attrition.

    PubMed

    Pietraszewski, David; Shaw, Alex

    2015-03-01

    The Asymmetric War of Attrition (AWA) model of animal conflict in evolutionary biology (Maynard Smith and Parker in Nature, 246, 15-18, 1976) suggests that an organism's decision to withdraw from a conflict is the result of adaptations designed to integrate the expected value of winning, discounted by the expected costs that would be incurred by continuing to compete, via sensitivity to proximate cues of how quickly each side can impose costs on the other (Resource Holding Potential), and how much each side will gain by winning. The current studies examine whether human conflict expectations follow the formalized logic of this model. Children aged 6-8 years were presented with third-party conflict vignettes and were then asked to predict the likely winner. Cues of ownership, hunger, size, strength, and alliance strength were systematically varied across conditions. Results demonstrate that children's expectations followed the logic of the AWA model, even in complex situations featuring multiple, competing cues, such that the actual relative costs and benefits that would accrue during such a conflict were reflected in children's expectations. Control conditions show that these modifications to conflict expectations could not have resulted from more general experimental artifacts or demand characteristics. To test the selectivity of these effects to conflict, expectations of search effort were also assessed. As predicted, they yielded a different pattern of results. These studies represent one of the first experimental tests of the AWA model in humans and suggest that future research on the psychology of ownership, conflict, and value may be aided by formalized models from evolutionary biology.

  8. Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

    PubMed

    Willan, Andrew R

    2007-01-01

    The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

  9. Building an Experimental Setup to Characterize an H4RG-15

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, Mickie; Hodapp, K.; Hall, Donald N. B.; Goebel, Sean B.; Jacobson, Shane M.

    2018-01-01

    The Teledyne Imaging Sensors H4RG-15 infrared detector is designed for the next era of extremely large telescopes. Characterization of individual H4RG-15 detectors are critical for future astronomical use. ULBcam, a former UH88 IR camera and remnant test dewar for H2RG characterization, was previously modified for H4RG-15 characterization. During the summer, this system was further upgraded with a baffle tube to a blackbody illumination source to allow controlled field illumination. This baffle tube, designed in OpenSCAD, was constructed in the IfA machine shop. Specific placements of the 50-micron aperture and scatter restrictive baffling was designed in Zemax. Four separate data sets were acquired to look into detector persistence, dark current, read noise, and charge gain. With the illumination source set at 450 K, ten ramps of 90/90 read frames were taken to pass saturation values. These tests were repeated at 500K to show results at over saturated conditions. Five ramps of 136/136 read frames were taken with a blank shutter applied. The persistence results showed expected results with signals settling from the third ramp. Dark current results showed higher than Teledyne stated values at 0.06 electrons/second, a factor of 6 higher than expected, which exposes systematic ULBcam dark testing capabilities. The read noise resulted with an expected value of 0.014 electrons. The charge gain showed 0.02 electrons/ADU where the expected value is 2 electrons/ADU. Data analysis using reference frame subtraction will be done for future work.

  10. The cognitive activation theory of stress.

    PubMed

    Ursin, Holger; Eriksen, Hege R

    2004-06-01

    This paper presents a cognitive activation theory of stress (CATS), with a formal system of systematic definitions. The term "stress" is used for four aspects of "stress", stress stimuli, stress experience, the non-specific, general stress response, and experience of the stress response. These four meanings may be measured separately. The stress response is a general alarm in a homeostatic system, producing general and unspecific neurophysiological activation from one level of arousal to more arousal. The stress response occurs whenever there is something missing, for instance a homeostatic imbalance, or a threat to homeostasis and life of the organism. Formally, the alarm occurs when there is a discrepancy between what should be and what is-between the value a variable should have (set value (SV)), and the real value (actual value (AV)) of the same variable. The stress response, therefore, is an essential and necessary physiological response. The unpleasantness of the alarm is no health threat. However, if sustained, the response may lead to illness and disease through established pathophysiological processes ("allostatic load"). The alarm elicits specific behaviors to cope with the situation. The level of alarm depends on expectancy of the outcome of stimuli and the specific responses available for coping. Psychological defense is defined as a distortion of stimulus expectancies. Response outcome expectancies are defined as positive, negative, or none, to the available responses. This offers formal definitions of coping, hopelessness, and helplessness that are easy to operationalize in man and in animals. It is an essential element of CATS that only when coping is defined as positive outcome expectancy does the concept predict relations to health and disease.

  11. In search of a theoretical structure for understanding motivation in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Medalia, Alice; Brekke, John

    2010-09-01

    This themed issue considers different ways to conceptualize the motivational impairment that is a core negative symptom of schizophrenia. Motivational impairment has been linked to poor functional outcome, thus it is important to understand the nature and causes of motivational impairment in order to develop better treatment strategies to enhance motivation and engage patients in the process of recovery. Motivation refers to the processes whereby goal-directed activities are instigated and sustained and can be thought of as the product of a complex interaction of physiological processes and social contextual variables. In this issue, the physiological processes of motivation are the focus of Barch and Dowd, who highlight the role of prefrontal and subcortical mesolimbic dopamine systems in incentive-based learning and the difficulties people with schizophrenia have using internal representations of relevant experiences and goals to drive the behavior that should allow them to obtain desired outcomes. The articles in this issue by Choi et al., Nakagami et al., and Silverstein, focus on social contextual or environmental variables that can shape behavior and motivation. Together, these articles highlight the impact of external cues and goal properties on the expectations and values attached to goal outcomes. Expectancy-value and Self-Determination theories provide an overarching framework to accommodate the perspectives and data provided in all these articles. In the following introduction we show how the articles in this themed issue both support the role of expectancies and value in motivation in schizophrenia and elucidate possible deficiencies in the way expectations and value get assigned.

  12. In Search of a Theoretical Structure for Understanding Motivation in Schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Medalia, Alice; Brekke, John

    2010-01-01

    This themed issue considers different ways to conceptualize the motivational impairment that is a core negative symptom of schizophrenia. Motivational impairment has been linked to poor functional outcome, thus it is important to understand the nature and causes of motivational impairment in order to develop better treatment strategies to enhance motivation and engage patients in the process of recovery. Motivation refers to the processes whereby goal-directed activities are instigated and sustained and can be thought of as the product of a complex interaction of physiological processes and social contextual variables. In this issue, the physiological processes of motivation are the focus of Barch and Dowd, who highlight the role of prefrontal and subcortical mesolimbic dopamine systems in incentive-based learning and the difficulties people with schizophrenia have using internal representations of relevant experiences and goals to drive the behavior that should allow them to obtain desired outcomes. The articles in this issue by Choi et al., Nakagami et al., and Silverstein, focus on social contextual or environmental variables that can shape behavior and motivation. Together, these articles highlight the impact of external cues and goal properties on the expectations and values attached to goal outcomes. Expectancy-value and Self-Determination theories provide an overarching framework to accommodate the perspectives and data provided in all these articles. In the following introduction we show how the articles in this themed issue both support the role of expectancies and value in motivation in schizophrenia and elucidate possible deficiencies in the way expectations and value get assigned. PMID:20595203

  13. The Value of Medical and Pharmaceutical Interventions for Reducing Obesity

    PubMed Central

    Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Goldman, Dana; Lakdawalla, Darius; Zheng, Yuhui; Gailey, Adam H.

    2012-01-01

    This paper attempts to quantify the social, private, and public-finance values of reducing obesity through pharmaceutical and medical interventions. We find that the total social value of bariatric surgery is large for treated patients, with incremental social cost-effectiveness ratios typically under $10,000 per life-year saved. On the other hand, pharmaceutical interventions against obesity yield much less social value with incremental social cost-effectiveness ratios around $50,000. Our approach accounts for: competing risks to life expectancy; health care costs; and a variety of non-medical economic consequences (pensions, disability insurance, taxes, and earnings), which account for 20% of the total social cost of these treatments. On balance, bariatric surgery generates substantial private value for those treated, in the form of health and other economic consequences. The net public fiscal effects are modest, primarily because the size of the population eligible for treatment is small while the net social effect is large once improvements in life expectancy are taken into account. PMID:22705389

  14. The value of medical and pharmaceutical interventions for reducing obesity.

    PubMed

    Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Goldman, Dana P; Lakdawalla, Darius N; Zheng, Yuhui; Gailey, Adam H

    2012-07-01

    This paper attempts to quantify the social, private, and public-finance values of reducing obesity through pharmaceutical and medical interventions. We find that the total social value of bariatric surgery is large for treated patients, with incremental social cost-effectiveness ratios typically under $10,000 per life-year saved. On the other hand, pharmaceutical interventions against obesity yield much less social value with incremental social cost-effectiveness ratios around $50,000. Our approach accounts for: competing risks to life expectancy; health care costs; and a variety of non-medical economic consequences (pensions, disability insurance, taxes, and earnings), which account for 20% of the total social cost of these treatments. On balance, bariatric surgery generates substantial private value for those treated, in the form of health and other economic consequences. The net public fiscal effects are modest, primarily because the size of the population eligible for treatment is small. The net social effect is large once improvements in life expectancy are taken into account. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

    PubMed

    Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

    2004-01-01

    In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

  16. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    PubMed

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  17. Guide to analyzing investment options using TWIGS.

    Treesearch

    Charles R Blinn; Dietmar W. Rose; Monique L. Belli

    1988-01-01

    Describes methods for analyzing economic return of simulated stand management alternatives in TWIGS. Defines and discusses net present value, equivalent annual income, soil expectation value, and real vs. nominal analyses. Discusses risk and sensitivity analysis when comparing alternatives.

  18. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  19. An expectancy-value analysis of viewer interest in television prevention news stories.

    PubMed

    Cooper, C P; Burgoon, M; Roter, D L

    2001-01-01

    Understanding what drives viewer interest in television news stories about prevention topics is vital to maximizing the effectiveness of interventions that utilize this medium. Guided by expectancy-value theory, this experiment used regression analysis to identify the salient beliefs associated with viewer attitudes towards these types of news stories. The 458 study participants were recruited over 30 days from a municipal jury pool in an eastern U.S. city. Out of the 22 beliefs included in the experiment, 6 demonstrated salience. Personal relevance, novelty, shock value, and the absence of exaggeration were the core values reflected in the identified salient beliefs. This study highlights the importance of explaining the relevance of prevention stories to viewers and framing these stories with a new spin or a surprising twist. However, such manipulations should be applied with savvy and restraint, as hyping prevention news was found to be counterproductive to educating the public.

  20. The Role of Religiousness and Gender in Sexuality Among Mexican Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Espinosa-Hernández, Graciela; Bissell-Havran, Joanna; Nunn, Anna

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the role of religiousness and gender in age at first intercourse, and sexual expectations and values in Mexico, a macrocontext where the majority is Mexican and Catholic (83%). Participants were Catholic and nonreligious adolescents (54% girls) attending middle (71%) or high school. Findings indicated that Catholic adolescents engaged in sexual intercourse at later ages than nonreligious adolescents. Both religious attendance and importance of religion and values in sexual decision making were associated with more conservative sexual values. Boys who were raised Catholic were more likely to endorse female virginity values and were less likely to expect to wait to have sex until married than nonreligious boys. These associations were not significant among girls. Catholic boys may be more likely to internalize sexual double standard beliefs regarding premarital sex than nonreligious boys. This study expands our understanding of the role of religiousness in Mexican adolescents' sexuality.

  1. Academic Freedom: A Lawyer's Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davies, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Academic freedom is central to ideas of higher education, yet in the United Kingdom it is facing challenges from changing managerial approaches within some universities and changing governmental expectations. Universities are increasingly expected to focus upon knowledge which can be shown to have value and to exploit the results of academic…

  2. Decision Making in the Short Run.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lopes, Lola L.

    1981-01-01

    The commonly accepted idea that the only rational measure of the worth of a gamble is its expected value or some subjective counterpart such as expected utility is examined. Also discussed are the changes called for in theories of rational choice when prescriptions of rational models violate common sense. (Author/GK)

  3. Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

  4. Status Valued Goal Objects and Performance Expectations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hysom, Stuart J.

    2009-01-01

    I designed an experiment to test predictions, derived from expectation states theories, that the unequal allocation of social rewards among collective task-focused actors will affect the actors' rates of power and prestige behavior. Past research shows that allocations of exchangeable resources can have these effects. The prediction, however, is…

  5. Willingness to Pay for Environmental Health Risk Reductions When There are Varying Degrees of Life Expectancy: A White Paper (2006)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The use of existing value of statistical life (VSL) estimates in benefit-cost analysis relates to relatively short changes in life expectancy. The authors' strategy for addressing this question is to briefly survey the existing economics literature.

  6. Culturally Responsive Positive Behavior Supports: Considerations for Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banks, Tachelle; Obiakor, Festus E.

    2015-01-01

    Classrooms are not culturally neutral terrains, but rather are constructed around sets of norms, values, and expected behaviors that are culturally bound. Low tolerance levels and expectations are an indication of the incongruence between the education strategies utilized by teachers and the cultural and linguistic differences of students that are…

  7. Predicting Document Retrieval System Performance: An Expected Precision Measure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Losee, Robert M., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Describes an expected precision (EP) measure designed to predict document retrieval performance. Highlights include decision theoretic models; precision and recall as measures of system performance; EP graphs; relevance feedback; and computing the retrieval status value of a document for two models, the Binary Independent Model and the Two Poisson…

  8. Scaling of the polarization amplitude in quantum many-body systems in one dimension

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Ryohei; Nakagawa, Yuya O.; Fukusumi, Yoshiki; Oshikawa, Masaki

    2018-04-01

    Resta proposed a definition of the electric polarization in one-dimensional systems in terms of the ground-state expectation value of the large gauge transformation operator. Vanishing of the expectation value in the thermodynamic limit implies that the system is a conductor. We study Resta's polarization amplitude (expectation value) in the S =1 /2 XXZ chain and its several generalizations, in the gapless conducting Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid phase. We obtain an analytical expression in the lowest-order perturbation theory about the free fermion point (XY chain) and an exact result for the Haldane-Shastry model with long-range interactions. We also obtain numerical results, mostly using the exact diagonalization method. We find that the amplitude exhibits a power-law scaling in the system size (chain length) and vanishes in the thermodynamic limit. On the other hand, the exponent depends on the model even when the low-energy limit is described by the Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid with the same Luttinger parameter. We find that a change in the exponent occurs when the Umklapp term(s) are eliminated, suggesting the importance of the Umklapp terms.

  9. Elementary quantum mechanics of the neutron with an electric dipole moment

    PubMed Central

    Baym, Gordon; Beck, D. H.

    2016-01-01

    The neutron, in addition to possibly having a permanent electric dipole moment as a consequence of violation of time-reversal invariance, develops an induced electric dipole moment in the presence of an external electric field. We present here a unified nonrelativistic description of these two phenomena, in which the dipole moment operator, D→, is not constrained to lie along the spin operator. Although the expectation value of D→ in the neutron is less than 10−13 of the neutron radius, rn, the expectation value of D→ 2 is of order rn2. We determine the spin motion in external electric and magnetic fields, as used in past and future searches for a permanent dipole moment, and show that the neutron electric polarizability, although entering the neutron energy in an external electric field, does not affect the spin motion. In a simple nonrelativistic model we show that the expectation value of the permanent dipole is, to lowest order, proportional to the product of the time-reversal-violating coupling strength and the electric polarizability of the neutron. PMID:27325765

  10. Elementary quantum mechanics of the neutron with an electric dipole moment.

    PubMed

    Baym, Gordon; Beck, D H

    2016-07-05

    The neutron, in addition to possibly having a permanent electric dipole moment as a consequence of violation of time-reversal invariance, develops an induced electric dipole moment in the presence of an external electric field. We present here a unified nonrelativistic description of these two phenomena, in which the dipole moment operator, [Formula: see text], is not constrained to lie along the spin operator. Although the expectation value of [Formula: see text] in the neutron is less than [Formula: see text] of the neutron radius, [Formula: see text], the expectation value of [Formula: see text] is of order [Formula: see text] We determine the spin motion in external electric and magnetic fields, as used in past and future searches for a permanent dipole moment, and show that the neutron electric polarizability, although entering the neutron energy in an external electric field, does not affect the spin motion. In a simple nonrelativistic model we show that the expectation value of the permanent dipole is, to lowest order, proportional to the product of the time-reversal-violating coupling strength and the electric polarizability of the neutron.

  11. Load controller and method to enhance effective capacity of a photovotaic power supply using a dynamically determined expected peak loading

    DOEpatents

    Perez, Richard

    2003-04-01

    A load controller and method are provided for maximizing effective capacity of a non-controllable, renewable power supply coupled to a variable electrical load also coupled to a conventional power grid. Effective capacity is enhanced by monitoring power output of the renewable supply and loading, and comparing the loading against the power output and a load adjustment threshold determined from an expected peak loading. A value for a load adjustment parameter is calculated by subtracting the renewable supply output and the load adjustment parameter from the current load. This value is then employed to control the variable load in an amount proportional to the value of the load control parameter when the parameter is within a predefined range. By so controlling the load, the effective capacity of the non-controllable, renewable power supply is increased without any attempt at operational feedback control of the renewable supply. The expected peak loading of the variable load can be dynamically determined within a defined time interval with reference to variations in the variable load.

  12. The neural correlates of risky decision making across short and long runs

    PubMed Central

    Rao, Li-Lin; Dunn, John C.; Zhou, Yuan; Li, Shu

    2015-01-01

    People frequently change their preferences for options of gambles which they play once compared to those they play multiple times. In general, preferences for repeated play gambles are more consistent with the expected values of the options. According to the one-process view, the change in preference is due to a change in the structure of the gamble that is relevant to decision making. According to the two-process view, the change is attributable to a shift in the decision making strategy that is used. To adjudicate between these two theories, we asked participants to choose between gambles played once or 100 times, and to choose between them based on their expected value. Consistent with the two-process theory, we found a set of brain regions that were sensitive to the extent of behavioral change between single and aggregated play and also showed significant (de)activation in the expected value choice task. These results support the view that people change their decision making strategies for risky choice considered once or multiple times. PMID:26516095

  13. Fluctuation removal around spectral and temporal constancy limits via use of an extended space expectation value weight function for singular quantum systems

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kalay, Berfin; Demiralp, Metin

    2015-03-10

    This work is a new extension to our a very recent work whose paper will appear in the proceedings of a very recent international conference. What we have done in the previous work is the use of a weight operator to suppress the singularities causing nonexistence of some of temporal Maclaurin expansion coefficients. The weight operator has been constructed in such a way that certain number of expectation values of position operator’s first positive integer powers with and without the chosen weight operator match. Therein this match has not been considered for the momentum operator’s corresponding power expectation values andmore » a finite linear combination of the spatial variable’s first reciprocal powers has been used in the construction of the weight operator. Here, that approach is extended to the case where matches for both position and momentum operators are considered and the weight operator involves finite linear combinations of the spatial variable’s both positive integer powers and their reciprocals.« less

  14. SU-E-T-56: A Novel Approach to Computing Expected Value and Variance of Point Dose From Non-Gated Radiotherapy Delivery

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhou, S; Zhu, X; Zhang, M

    Purpose: Randomness in patient internal organ motion phase at the beginning of non-gated radiotherapy delivery may introduce uncertainty to dose received by the patient. Concerns of this dose deviation from the planned one has motivated many researchers to study this phenomenon although unified theoretical framework for computing it is still missing. This study was conducted to develop such framework for analyzing the effect. Methods: Two reasonable assumptions were made: a) patient internal organ motion is stationary and periodic; b) no special arrangement is made to start a non -gated radiotherapy delivery at any specific phase of patient internal organ motion.more » A statistical ensemble was formed consisting of patient’s non-gated radiotherapy deliveries at all equally possible initial organ motion phases. To characterize the patient received dose, statistical ensemble average method is employed to derive formulae for two variables: expected value and variance of dose received by a patient internal point from a non-gated radiotherapy delivery. Fourier Series was utilized to facilitate our analysis. Results: According to our formulae, the two variables can be computed from non-gated radiotherapy generated dose rate time sequences at the point’s corresponding locations on fixed phase 3D CT images sampled evenly in time over one patient internal organ motion period. The expected value of point dose is simply the average of the doses to the point’s corresponding locations on the fixed phase CT images. The variance can be determined by time integration in terms of Fourier Series coefficients of the dose rate time sequences on the same fixed phase 3D CT images. Conclusion: Given a non-gated radiotherapy delivery plan and patient’s 4D CT study, our novel approach can predict the expected value and variance of patient radiation dose. We expect it to play a significant role in determining both quality and robustness of patient non-gated radiotherapy plan.« less

  15. Scientific fraud in 20 falsified anesthesia papers : detection using financial auditing methods.

    PubMed

    Hein, J; Zobrist, R; Konrad, C; Schuepfer, G

    2012-06-01

    Data from natural sources show counter-intuitive distribution patterns for the leading digits to the left of the decimal point and the digit 1 is observed more frequently than all other numbers. This pattern, which was first described by Newcomb and later confirmed by Benford, is used in financial and tax auditing to detect fraud. Deviations from the pattern indicate possible falsifications. Anesthesiology journals are affected not only by ghostwriting and plagiarism but also by counterfeiting. In the present study 20 publications in anesthesiology known to be falsified by an author were investigated for irregularities with respect to Benford's law using the χ(2)-test and the Z-test. In the 20 retracted publications an average first-digit frequency of 243.1 (standard deviation SD ± 118.2, range: 30-592) and an average second-digit frequency of 132.3 (SD ± 72.2, range: 15-383) were found. The observed distribution of the first and second digits to the left of the decimal point differed significantly (p< 0.01) from the expected distribution described by Benford. Only the observed absolute frequencies for digits 3, 4 and 5 did not differ significantly from the expected values. In an analysis of each paper 17 out of 20 studies differed significantly from the expected value for the first digit and 18 out of 20 studies varied significantly from the expected value of the second digit. Only one paper did not vary significantly from expected values for the digits to the left of the decimal. For comparison, a meta-analysis using complex mathematical procedures was chosen as a control. The analysis showed a first-digit distribution consistent with the Benford distribution. Thus, the method used in the present study seems to be sensitive for detecting fraud. Additional statements of specificity cannot yet be made as this requires further analysis of data that is definitely not falsified. Future studies exploring conformity might help prevent falsified studies from being published.

  16. Who's biased? A meta-analysis of buyer-seller differences in the pricing of lotteries.

    PubMed

    Yechiam, Eldad; Ashby, Nathaniel J S; Pachur, Thorsten

    2017-05-01

    A large body of empirical research has examined the impact of trading perspective on pricing of consumer products, with the typical finding being that selling prices exceed buying prices (i.e., the endowment effect). Using a meta-analytic approach, we examine to what extent the endowment effect also emerges in the pricing of monetary lotteries. As monetary lotteries have a clearly defined normative value, we also assess whether one trading perspective is more biased than the other. We consider several indicators of bias: absolute deviation from expected values, rank correlation with expected values, overall variance, and per-unit variance. The meta-analysis, which includes 35 articles, indicates that selling prices considerably exceed buying prices (Cohen's d = 0.58). Importantly, we also find that selling prices deviate less from the lotteries' expected values than buying prices, both in absolute and in relative terms. Selling prices also exhibit lower variance per unit. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling with cumulative prospect theory indicates that buyers have lower probability sensitivity and a more pronounced response bias. The finding that selling prices are more in line with normative standards than buying prices challenges the prominent account whereby sellers' valuations are upward biased due to loss aversion, and supports alternative theoretical accounts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. The spectra and periodograms of anti-correlated discrete fractional Gaussian noise.

    PubMed

    Raymond, G M; Percival, D B; Bassingthwaighte, J B

    2003-05-01

    Discrete fractional Gaussian noise (dFGN) has been proposed as a model for interpreting a wide variety of physiological data. The form of actual spectra of dFGN for frequencies near zero varies as f(1-2H), where 0 < H < 1 is the Hurst coefficient; however, this form for the spectra need not be a good approximation at other frequencies. When H approaches zero, dFGN spectra exhibit the 1 - 2H power-law behavior only over a range of low frequencies that is vanishingly small. When dealing with a time series of finite length drawn from a dFGN process with unknown H, practitioners must deal with estimated spectra in lieu of actual spectra. The most basic spectral estimator is the periodogram. The expected value of the periodogram for dFGN with small H also exhibits non-power-law behavior. At the lowest Fourier frequencies associated with a time series of N values sampled from a dFGN process, the expected value of the periodogram for H approaching zero varies as f(0) rather than f(1-2H). For finite N and small H, the expected value of the periodogram can in fact exhibit a local power-law behavior with a spectral exponent of 1 - 2H at only two distinct frequencies.

  18. 36 CFR 14.55 - Consultation with local bureau officials, program values.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... System) § 14.55 Consultation with local bureau officials, program values. An applicant will be expected... right-of-way purposes is consistent with the Service's management program and to agree to such measures as may be necessary to maintain program values. Failure to do so may lead to an unresolvable conflict...

  19. 36 CFR 14.55 - Consultation with local bureau officials, program values.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... System) § 14.55 Consultation with local bureau officials, program values. An applicant will be expected... right-of-way purposes is consistent with the Service's management program and to agree to such measures as may be necessary to maintain program values. Failure to do so may lead to an unresolvable conflict...

  20. Less Is Sometimes More: Goal Content Matters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Simons, Joke; Lens, Willy; Soenens, Bart; Matos, Lennia; Lacante, Marlies

    2004-01-01

    According to expectancy-value theories, increasing the utility value of a learning activity should result in higher motivation and better learning. In contrast, self-determination theory posits that the content of the future goals (intrinsic vs. extrinsic) that enhance the utility value of the learning activity needs to be considered as well.…

  1. Hide and Seek: Values in Early Childhood Education and Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, Sacha

    2010-01-01

    Early childhood education and care settings in England and the people who work in them constitute an important sphere of influence, shaping young children's characters and values. But the values and dispositions expected of the early years workforce are missing from statutory policy documentation despite its clear requirement that practitioners…

  2. How Do Academically Successful Pasifika Students Perceive Task Value?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tait, Kirstin; Horsley, Jenny; Tait, Carolyn

    2016-01-01

    Pasifika students are a minority group in New Zealand education who are at risk of underachievement. This article examines how five high achieving Pasifika students reported the factors that contribute to the task value of the New Zealand Qualifications Authority (NZQA) Scholarship. It uses expectancy value theory to consider motivation through…

  3. Consumer familiarity, perspectives and expected value of personalized medicine with a focus on applications in oncology

    PubMed Central

    Garfeld, Susan; Douglas, Michael P; MacDonald, Karen V; Marshall, Deborah A; Phillips, Kathryn A

    2015-01-01

    Aims Knowledge of consumer perspectives of personalized medicine (PM) is limited. Our study assessed consumer perspectives of PM, with a focus on oncology care, to inform industry, clinician and payer stakeholders' programs and policy. Materials & Methods A nationally representative survey of 602 US consumers' ≥30 years old explored familiarity, perspectives and expected value of PM. Results Most (73%) respondents have not heard of ‘personalized medicine,’ though after understanding the term most (95%) expect PM to have a positive beneft. Consumer's willingness to pay is associated with products' impact on survival, rather than predicting disease risk. If testing indicates consumers are not candidates for oncology therapies, most (84%) would seek a second opinion or want therapy anyway. Conclusions Understanding heterogeneity in consumer perspectives of PM can inform program and policy development. PMID:25620993

  4. Value-of-information analysis within a stakeholder-driven research prioritization process in a US setting: an application in cancer genomics.

    PubMed

    Carlson, Josh J; Thariani, Rahber; Roth, Josh; Gralow, Julie; Henry, N Lynn; Esmail, Laura; Deverka, Pat; Ramsey, Scott D; Baker, Laurence; Veenstra, David L

    2013-05-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and outcomes of incorporating value-of-information (VOI) analysis into a stakeholder-driven research prioritization process in a US-based setting. . Within a program to prioritize comparative effectiveness research areas in cancer genomics, over a period of 7 months, we developed decision-analytic models and calculated upper-bound VOI estimates for 3 previously selected genomic tests. Thirteen stakeholders representing patient advocates, payers, test developers, regulators, policy makers, and community-based oncologists ranked the tests before and after receiving VOI results. The stakeholders were surveyed about the usefulness and impact of the VOI findings. The estimated upper-bound VOI ranged from $33 million to $2.8 billion for the 3 research areas. Seven stakeholders indicated the results modified their rankings, 9 stated VOI data were useful, and all indicated they would support its use in future prioritization processes. Some stakeholders indicated expected value of sampled information might be the preferred choice when evaluating specific Limitations. Our study was limited by the size and the potential for selection bias in the composition of the external stakeholder group, lack of a randomized design to assess effect of VOI data on rankings, and the use of expected value of perfect information v. expected value of sample information methods. Value of information analyses may have a meaningful role in research topic prioritization for comparative effectiveness research in the United States, particularly when large differences in VOI across topic areas are identified. Additional research is needed to facilitate the use of more complex value of information analyses in this setting.

  5. Network approach for decision making under risk—How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yi-Shin

    2018-01-01

    Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. PMID:29702665

  6. Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

    PubMed

    Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

    2018-01-01

    Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

  7. On the minimum of independent geometrically distributed random variables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ciardo, Gianfranco; Leemis, Lawrence M.; Nicol, David

    1994-01-01

    The expectations E(X(sub 1)), E(Z(sub 1)), and E(Y(sub 1)) of the minimum of n independent geometric, modifies geometric, or exponential random variables with matching expectations differ. We show how this is accounted for by stochastic variability and how E(X(sub 1))/E(Y(sub 1)) equals the expected number of ties at the minimum for the geometric random variables. We then introduce the 'shifted geometric distribution' and show that there is a unique value of the shift for which the individual shifted geometric and exponential random variables match expectations both individually and in the minimums.

  8. When Can Subscores Be Expected to Have Added Value? Results from Operational and Simulated Data. Research Report. ETS RR-10-16

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2010-01-01

    Recently, there has been an increasing level of interest in subscores for their potential diagnostic value. Haberman (2008) suggested a method based on classical test theory to determine whether subscores have added value over total scores. This paper provides a literature review and reports when subscores were found to have added value for…

  9. Defects in Semiconductors 16: Proceedings of the International Conference (16th) Held in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania on 22-26 July 1991. Part 3

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-01-01

    Because of the dislocations, one expects to see steps or extra atomic rows. In figure 1, the black to white scale corresponds to 0.2 nm, which is the...that the shift of the Ge and Si g-values from the free electron value (g) scales with the spin crbit coupling parameters as expected . Also pertinent...Paramagnetic defects in SiC based materials 1201 0. Chauvet, L. Zuppiroli, J. Ardonceau, 1. Solomon, Y.C. Wang and R.F. Davis Acceptors in silicon car1hide

  10. Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

    PubMed

    Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

    2018-02-01

    There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

  11. Cosmological perturbations in inflation and in de Sitter space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pimentel, Guilherme Leite

    This thesis focuses on various aspects of inflationary fluctuations. First, we study gravitational wave fluctuations in de Sitter space. The isometries of the spacetime constrain to a few parameters the Wheeler-DeWitt wavefunctional of the universe, to cubic order in fluctuations. At cubic order, there are three independent terms in the wavefunctional. From the point of view of the bulk action, one term corresponds to Einstein gravity, and a new term comes from a cubic term in the curvature tensor. The third term is a pure phase and does not give rise to a new shape for expectation values of graviton fluctuations. These results can be seen as the leading order non-gaussian contributions in a slow-roll expansion for inflationary observables. We also use the wavefunctional approach to explain a universal consistency condition of n-point expectation values in single field inflation. This consistency condition relates a soft limit of an n-point expectation value to ( n-1)-point expectation values. We show how these conditions can be easily derived from the wavefunctional point of view. Namely, they follow from the momentum constraint of general relativity, which is equivalent to the constraint of spatial diffeomorphism invariance. We also study expectation values beyond tree level. We show that subhorizon fluctuations in loop diagrams do not generate a mass term for superhorizon fluctuations. Such a mass term could spoil the predictivity of inflation, which is based on the existence of properly defined field variables that become constant once their wavelength is bigger than the size of the horizon. Such a mass term would be seen in the two point expectation value as a contribution that grows linearly with time at late times. The absence of this mass term is closely related to the soft limits studied in previous chapters. It is analogous to the absence of a mass term for the photon in quantum electrodynamics, due to gauge symmetry. Finally, we use the tools of holography and entanglement entropy to study superhorizon correlations in quantum field theories in de Sitter space. The entropy has interesting terms that have no equivalent in flat space field theories. These new terms are due to particle creation in an expanding universe. The entropy is calculated directly for free massive scalar theories. For theories with holographic duals, it is determined by the area of some extremal surface in the bulk geometry. We calculate the entropy for different classes of holographic duals. For one of these classes, the holographic dual geometry is an asymptotically Anti-de Sitter space that decays into a crunching cosmology, an open Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe. The extremal surface used in the calculation of the entropy lies almost entirely on the slice of maximal scale factor of the crunching cosmology.

  12. Implementing Target Value Design.

    PubMed

    Alves, Thais da C L; Lichtig, Will; Rybkowski, Zofia K

    2017-04-01

    An alternative to the traditional way of designing projects is the process of target value design (TVD), which takes different departure points to start the design process. The TVD process starts with the client defining an allowable cost that needs to be met by the design and construction teams. An expected cost in the TVD process is defined through multiple interactions between multiple stakeholders who define wishes and others who define ways of achieving these wishes. Finally, a target cost is defined based on the expected profit the design and construction teams are expecting to make. TVD follows a series of continuous improvement efforts aimed at reaching the desired goals for the project and its associated target value cost. The process takes advantage of rapid cycles of suggestions, analyses, and implementation that starts with the definition of value for the client. In the traditional design process, the goal is to identify user preferences and find solutions that meet the needs of the client's expressed preferences. In the lean design process, the goal is to educate users about their values and advocate for a better facility over the long run; this way owners can help contractors and designers to identify better solutions. This article aims to inform the healthcare community about tools and techniques commonly used during the TVD process and how they can be used to educate and support project participants in developing better solutions to meet their needs now as well as in the future.

  13. The option value of delay in health technology assessment.

    PubMed

    Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

    2008-01-01

    Processes of health technology assessment (HTA) inform decisions under uncertainty about whether to invest in new technologies based on evidence of incremental effects, incremental cost, and incremental net benefit monetary (INMB). An option value to delaying such decisions to wait for further evidence is suggested in the usual case of interest, in which the prior distribution of INMB is positive but uncertain. of estimating the option value of delaying decisions to invest have previously been developed when investments are irreversible with an uncertain payoff over time and information is assumed fixed. However, in HTA decision uncertainty relates to information (evidence) on the distribution of INMB. This article demonstrates that the option value of delaying decisions to allow collection of further evidence can be estimated as the expected value of sample of information (EVSI). For irreversible decisions, delay and trial (DT) is demonstrated to be preferred to adopt and no trial (AN) when the EVSI exceeds expected costs of information, including expected opportunity costs of not treating patients with the new therapy. For reversible decisions, adopt and trial (AT) becomes a potentially optimal strategy, but costs of reversal are shown to reduce the EVSI of this strategy due to both a lower probability of reversal being optimal and lower payoffs when reversal is optimal. Hence, decision makers are generally shown to face joint research and reimbursement decisions (AN, DT and AT), with the optimal choice dependent on costs of reversal as well as opportunity costs of delay and the distribution of prior INMB.

  14. Pressurizing the STEM Pipeline: an Expectancy-Value Theory Analysis of Youths' STEM Attitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ball, Christopher; Huang, Kuo-Ting; Cotten, Shelia R.; Rikard, R. V.

    2017-08-01

    Over the past decade, there has been a strong national push to increase minority students' positive attitudes towards STEM-related careers. However, despite this focus, minority students have remained underrepresented in these fields. Some researchers have directed their attention towards improving the STEM pipeline which carries students through our educational system and into STEM careers. Previous research has shown that expectancy-value theory (EVT) is useful for examining the short-term as well as long-term academic motivations and intentions of elementary age minority students. These findings provide insights into ways we may be able to potentially "patch" particular STEM pipeline leaks. In the current study, we advance this research by using EVT as a framework to examine the STEM attitudes of young students directly. We hypothesize that students' academic-related expectancies for success and subjective task values will be associated with an increase in STEM attitudes. Data for this study was gathered over the course of a large-scale computing intervention which sought to increase students' STEM interest. This computing intervention took place in an urban elementary school district located within the southeastern USA. Results from this study indicate that both intrinsic values and utility values predict students' STEM attitudes but they influence attitudes related to the various dimensions of STEM differently. These findings demonstrate that EVT provides a useful framework, which can be integrated into future computing interventions, to help encourage positive STEM attitudes in young children, thus increasing the internal pressure (or flow) within the STEM pipeline.

  15. Sample size calculations for randomized clinical trials published in anesthesiology journals: a comparison of 2010 versus 2016.

    PubMed

    Chow, Jeffrey T Y; Turkstra, Timothy P; Yim, Edmund; Jones, Philip M

    2018-06-01

    Although every randomized clinical trial (RCT) needs participants, determining the ideal number of participants that balances limited resources and the ability to detect a real effect is difficult. Focussing on two-arm, parallel group, superiority RCTs published in six general anesthesiology journals, the objective of this study was to compare the quality of sample size calculations for RCTs published in 2010 vs 2016. Each RCT's full text was searched for the presence of a sample size calculation, and the assumptions made by the investigators were compared with the actual values observed in the results. Analyses were only performed for sample size calculations that were amenable to replication, defined as using a clearly identified outcome that was continuous or binary in a standard sample size calculation procedure. The percentage of RCTs reporting all sample size calculation assumptions increased from 51% in 2010 to 84% in 2016. The difference between the values observed in the study and the expected values used for the sample size calculation for most RCTs was usually > 10% of the expected value, with negligible improvement from 2010 to 2016. While the reporting of sample size calculations improved from 2010 to 2016, the expected values in these sample size calculations often assumed effect sizes larger than those actually observed in the study. Since overly optimistic assumptions may systematically lead to underpowered RCTs, improvements in how to calculate and report sample sizes in anesthesiology research are needed.

  16. Entropy functional and the holographic attractor mechanism

    DOE PAGES

    Cabo-Bizet, Alejandro; Kol, Uri; Pando Zayas, Leopoldo A.; ...

    2018-05-01

    We provide a field theory interpretation of the attractor mechanism for asymptotically AdS4 dyonic BPS black holes whose entropy is captured by the supersymmetric index of the twisted ABJM theory at Chern-Simons level one. We holographically compute the renormalized off-shell quantum effective action in the twisted ABJM theory as a function of the supersymmetric fermion masses and the arbitrary vacuum expectation values of the dimension one scalar bilinear operators and show that extremizing the effective action with respect to the vacuum expectation values of the dimension one scalar bilinears is equivalent to the attractor mechanism in the bulk. In fact,more » we show that the holographic quantum effective action coincides with the entropy functional and, therefore, its value at the extremum reproduces the black hole entropy.« less

  17. Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

    PubMed

    Todinov, M T

    2006-04-01

    The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.

  18. Predictions of Daily Milk and Fat Yields, Major Groups of Fatty Acids, and C18:1 cis-9 from Single Milking Data without a Milking Interval

    PubMed Central

    Arnould, Valérie M. R.; Reding, Romain; Bormann, Jeanne; Gengler, Nicolas; Soyeurt, Hélène

    2015-01-01

    Simple Summary Reducing the frequency of milk recording decreases the costs of official milk recording. However, this approach can negatively affect the accuracy of predicting daily yields. Equations to predict daily yield from morning or evening data were developed in this study for fatty milk components from traits recorded easily by milk recording organizations. The correlation values ranged from 96.4% to 97.6% (96.9% to 98.3%) when the daily yields were estimated from the morning (evening) milkings. The simplicity of the proposed models which do not include the milking interval should facilitate their use by breeding and milk recording organizations. Abstract Reducing the frequency of milk recording would help reduce the costs of official milk recording. However, this approach could also negatively affect the accuracy of predicting daily yields. This problem has been investigated in numerous studies. In addition, published equations take into account milking intervals (MI), and these are often not available and/or are unreliable in practice. The first objective of this study was to propose models in which the MI was replaced by a combination of data easily recorded by dairy farmers. The second objective was to further investigate the fatty acids (FA) present in milk. Equations to predict daily yield from AM or PM data were based on a calibration database containing 79,971 records related to 51 traits [milk yield (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily); fat content (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily); fat yield (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily; g/day); levels of seven different FAs or FA groups (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily; g/dL milk), and the corresponding FA yields for these seven FA types/groups (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily; g/day)]. These equations were validated using two distinct external datasets. The results obtained from the proposed models were compared to previously published results for models which included a MI effect. The corresponding correlation values ranged from 96.4% to 97.6% when the daily yields were estimated from the AM milkings and ranged from 96.9% to 98.3% when the daily yields were estimated from the PM milkings. The simplicity of these proposed models should facilitate their use by breeding and milk recording organizations. PMID:26479379

  19. Fourth-Grade Students' Motivational Changes in an Elementary Physical Education Running Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron E.; Bruene, April

    2006-01-01

    Achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice were used to examine fourth-grade students' motivational changes in an elementary physical education running program. In fall and spring of the school year, participants (N = 113; 66 boys, 47 girls) completed questionnaires assessing achievement goals, expectancy beliefs,…

  20. Occupational Expectations--Nature, Correlates, and Utilization in Occupational Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofstrand, Richard K.; Phipps, Lloyd J.

    To gain greatest meaning and satisfaction from their work activities, persons should be able to more accurately identify and define their feelings, attitudes, and values related to the world of work. An expanded and enhanced understanding of occupational expectations on the part of career counselors would help in working with youth and adults who…

  1. Elementary Teachers' Views of Their Science Professional Development Attendance: An Expectancy-Value Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomson, Margareta Maria; Kaufmann, Elisha

    2013-01-01

    This study explored primarily the elementary teachers' motivations and expectations for engagement in a science professional development. Participants (N=20) were elementary teachers in two public schools from the United States and were enrolled in a yearlong science professional development; however, due to various factors teachers did not…

  2. Sensitive and Controversial Issues in the Classroom: Teaching History in a Divided Society

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kello, Katrin

    2016-01-01

    Teaching sensitive and controversial issues (SCIs) is of growing interest in contemporary, increasingly heterogeneous societies. In democracies, different groups and institutions expect their values and worldviews to be conveyed at school. On one hand, there is the expectation that SCIs should be treated neutrally. On the other hand, there are…

  3. Managing outdoor recreation conflict on the Squamish, British Columbia Trail Network

    Treesearch

    Ana Elia Ramón Hidalgo; Howard Harshaw

    2012-01-01

    Recreationists with high expectations of satisfaction from outdoor recreation activities are increasingly using trails networks near urban areas. But differences in expectations, behaviors and values of trail users may create conflicts resulting in unsatisfactory experiences. The objective of this study was to test the efficacy of management practices that may reduce...

  4. 18 CFR 270.305 - Determination of tight formation areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... estimated in situ gas permeability, throughout the pay section, is expected to be 0.1 millidarcy (md) or less. The expected in situ permeability is to be determined through an arithmetic mean averaging of the... formation. (ii) A well-by-well table of each in situ permeability value (in millidarcies), pre-stimulation...

  5. 18 CFR 270.305 - Determination of tight formation areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... estimated in situ gas permeability, throughout the pay section, is expected to be 0.1 millidarcy (md) or less. The expected in situ permeability is to be determined through an arithmetic mean averaging of the... formation. (ii) A well-by-well table of each in situ permeability value (in millidarcies), pre-stimulation...

  6. 18 CFR 270.305 - Determination of tight formation areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... estimated in situ gas permeability, throughout the pay section, is expected to be 0.1 millidarcy (md) or less. The expected in situ permeability is to be determined through an arithmetic mean averaging of the... formation. (ii) A well-by-well table of each in situ permeability value (in millidarcies), pre-stimulation...

  7. 18 CFR 270.305 - Determination of tight formation areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... estimated in situ gas permeability, throughout the pay section, is expected to be 0.1 millidarcy (md) or less. The expected in situ permeability is to be determined through an arithmetic mean averaging of the... formation. (ii) A well-by-well table of each in situ permeability value (in millidarcies), pre-stimulation...

  8. 14 CFR 170.13 - Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) establishment criteria.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... the present value of the ATCT life cycle benefits (BPV) to the present value of ATCT life cycle costs... traffic during the expected life of the tower facility. (An FAA annual count is a fiscal year or a...

  9. 14 CFR 170.13 - Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) establishment criteria.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... the present value of the ATCT life cycle benefits (BPV) to the present value of ATCT life cycle costs... traffic during the expected life of the tower facility. (An FAA annual count is a fiscal year or a...

  10. 14 CFR 170.13 - Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) establishment criteria.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... the present value of the ATCT life cycle benefits (BPV) to the present value of ATCT life cycle costs... traffic during the expected life of the tower facility. (An FAA annual count is a fiscal year or a...

  11. 14 CFR 170.13 - Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) establishment criteria.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... the present value of the ATCT life cycle benefits (BPV) to the present value of ATCT life cycle costs... traffic during the expected life of the tower facility. (An FAA annual count is a fiscal year or a...

  12. Patient-Therapist Value Congruence and Ratings of Client Improvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martini, Janie L.

    1978-01-01

    It can be concluded from the results of the two studies described here that value similarity between client and therapist is related to therapists' ratings of client improvement. This phenomenon can be expected in therapies irrespective of theoretical orientation. (Author)

  13. 78 FR 40503 - Notice of Realty Action: Direct Sale of Public Lands in Pima County, AZ

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-05

    ... cultural resource values have been identified. There are no impacts to resource values that are expected... of appropriation under the public land laws, including the mining laws, except for the sale and...

  14. 32 CFR 3.8 - DoD access to records policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... to use an IPA: the business unit's name, address and the expected value of its award. When the clause... business unit that will perform the OT agreement, or a subawardee, meets the criteria for an audit pursuant... paragraph (c) of this section. The value establishing the threshold is the total value of the agreement...

  15. 32 CFR 3.8 - DoD access to records policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... to use an IPA: the business unit's name, address and the expected value of its award. When the clause... business unit that will perform the OT agreement, or a subawardee, meets the criteria for an audit pursuant... paragraph (c) of this section. The value establishing the threshold is the total value of the agreement...

  16. 12 CFR Appendix A to Part 1008 - Examples of Mortgage Loan Originator Activities

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... acts as a volunteer without receiving or expecting to receive anything of value in connection with the... terminology (e.g., debt-to-income ratio) or lending policies (e.g., the loan-to-value ratio policy of the... activities anything of value, including, but not limited to, payment of a salary, bonus, or commission. The...

  17. 12 CFR Appendix A to Part 1008 - Examples of Mortgage Loan Originator Activities

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... acts as a volunteer without receiving or expecting to receive anything of value in connection with the... terminology (e.g., debt-to-income ratio) or lending policies (e.g., the loan-to-value ratio policy of the... activities anything of value, including, but not limited to, payment of a salary, bonus, or commission. The...

  18. Mathematical Modeling Activities as a Useful Tool for Values Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doruk, Bekir Kursat

    2012-01-01

    Values education is crucial since it is one of the factors to reach success in education in broader sense and in mathematics education in particular sense. It is also important for educating next generations of societies. However, previous research showed that expected importance for values education was not given in Mathematics courses. In a few…

  19. The Foreign Language Learning Value Beliefs of Japanese Elementary School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, Ron Reuel

    2013-01-01

    This study was an investigation of student beliefs about their EFL education, and it was based upon the subjective task value component of the expectancy-value theory, a prominent theory of achievement motivation. The participants were three cohorts of Japanese public elementary school students (Cohort 1 from 2008; Cohort 2 from 2009; and Cohort 3…

  20. Estimating postfire changes in production and value of Northern Rocky Mountain-Intermountain rangelands

    Treesearch

    David L. Peterson; Patrick J. Flowers

    1984-01-01

    A simulation model was developed to estimate postfire changes in the production and value of grazing lands in the Northern Rocky Mountain-Intermountain region. Ecological information and management decisions were used to simulate expected changes in production and value after wildfire in six major rangeland types: permanent forested range (ponderosa pine), transitory...

  1. Using School Lotteries to Evaluate the Value-Added Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deutsch, Jonah

    2013-01-01

    There has been an active debate in the literature over the validity of value-added models. In this study, the author tests the central assumption of value-added models that school assignment is random relative to expected test scores conditional on prior test scores, demographic variables, and other controls. He uses a Chicago charter school's…

  2. Gender and Family Influences on Spanish Students' Aspirations and Values in STEM Fields

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sáinz, Milagros; Müller, Jörg

    2018-01-01

    Drawing on expectancy-value theory, this study examines gender and family influences on students' career aspirations and attached values. 796 secondary Spanish students (M age = 16 years old, S.D. = 0.81) participated. 53% were boys. The results show that boys and students with mothers who have completed intermediate level education were more…

  3. Teachers' Intentions to Stay in Teaching: The Role of Values and Knowledge of Adolescent Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Battle, Ann A.; Looney, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    Researchers examining teacher retention often focus on reasons why teachers exit the profession. In this study we argue for the inclusion of a psychological theoretical framework for understanding teacher retention. To this end, we used Eccles' et al., (1983) expectancy-value theory to explore 46 in-service teachers' valuing of teaching and…

  4. The Conflict between On-Task and Off-Task Actions in the Classroom and Its Consequences for Motivation and Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kilian, Britta; Hofer, Manfred; Fries, Stefan; Kuhnle, Claudia

    2010-01-01

    The relations between students' value orientations, decisions in conflicts between on-task and off-task actions in the classroom, and experiences of motivational interference following these conflicts were investigated. It was expected that well-being value orientation was positively linked and achievement value orientation was negatively linked…

  5. The Rate of Value Increase for Sugar Maple

    Treesearch

    Joseph J. Mendel; Ted J. Grisez; G.R. Jr. Trimble; G.R. Jr. Trimble

    1973-01-01

    Presents financial-maturity information for sugar maple, based on tree growth and tree-quality data collected in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Detailed rates of value increase and dollar value increase to be expected for a 10-year period are exhibited. Marking guides in the form of financial-maturity diameters are developed. The effects on financial aturity of...

  6. Task Values, Cost, and Choice Decisions in College Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Ang; Liu, Xinlan

    2009-01-01

    The expectancy-value motivation theory postulates that motivation can be achieved when perceived values in an activity override perceived cost of the activity derived from the effort of achieving. This study was designed to examine types of perceived cost in physical education and the extent to which the cost might affect motivation. Data about…

  7. Review article: Medical decision models of Helicobacter pylori therapy to prevent gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Sonnenberg, A; Inadomi, J M

    1998-02-01

    The aim of the present article is to study the utility of Helicobacter pylori eradication programmes in decreasing the incidence of gastric cancer. Three types of decision models are employed to pursue this aim, i.e. decision tree, present value, and declining exponential approximation of life expectancy (DEALE). 1) A decision tree allows one to model the interaction of multiple variables in great detail and to calculate the marginal cost, as well as the marginal cost-benefit ratio, of a preventive strategy. The cost of gastric cancer, the efficacy of H. pylori therapy in preventing cancer, and the cumulative probability of developing gastric cancer exert the largest influence on the marginal cost of cancer prevention. The high cost of future gastric cancer and a high efficacy of therapy make screening for H. pylori and its eradication the preferred strategy. 2) The present value is an economic method to adjust future costs or benefits to their current value using a discount rate and the length of time between now and a given time point in the future. It accounts for the depreciation of money and all material values over time. During childhood, the present value of future gastric cancer is very low. Vaccination of children to prevent gastric cancer would need to be very inexpensive to be practicable. Cancer prevention becomes a feasible option, only if the time period between the preventive measures and the occurrence of gastric cancer can be made relatively short. 3) The DEALE provides a means to calculate the increase in life expectancy that would occur, if death from a particular disease became preventable. Life expectancy of the general population is hardly affected by gastric cancer. For life expectancy to increase appreciably by vaccination or antibiotic therapy directed against H. pylori infection, these interventions would need to be focused towards a sub-population with an a priori high risk for gastric cancer.

  8. Final Report for Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-76-C-0782. Volume I,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-07-01

    American life . As the baby boom generation entered the labor market, however, they found the con- ditions very different than those that they had...present discounted value (PDV) of the enlistee’s expected earning with those of civilian earnings for his life - cycle. Suppose that n represents an...individual’s expected life -time working period. Then the PDV of the expected earnings for the potential enlistee and for the non-enlistee can be expressed

  9. Carbon and oxygen isotopic disequilibrium during calcification of Globigerina bulloides in the Southern ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    K, P.; Ghosh, P.; N, A.

    2015-12-01

    Oxygen and carbon isotopes in planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides recovered from the water column of 0-1000 m depth across the meridional transect i.e. 10°N to 53°S of Indian ocean were compared with the available data from the core-top samples across the same transect. We also recorded in situ temperatures of the water column based on probe (CTD) profiles. The δ18O and δ13C values measured in the core top samples matches with the tow results. The equilibrium δ18O of calcite calculated from known temperature and δ18O of water column allowed us to compare the observed δ18O of formaminieral shell with the expected equilibrium values. Our comparison of carbonate composition in the samples between 10°N till 40°S showed excellent match with the expected equilibrium δ18O values established from the water collected at depth range of ~75-200m, however beyond 40°S the disequilibrium was pronounced with heavier δ18O (enriched by ~1.5‰) recorded in the carbonate as compared with the expected equilibrium δ18O values established from water. This observation was further verified with δ13C measurement of shell carbonates comparing with the equilibrium δ13C of calcite calculated with known temperature and δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon in the water column. The δ13C of the shell carbonate was found heavier as compared to the expected equilibrium δ13C. Both δ18O and δ13C showed simultaneous enrichment signature in the region beyond 40°S suggesting role of processes such as leaching along with dissolution of shell carbonate in a relatively acidic condition.

  10. Strategies for Efficient Computation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information

    PubMed Central

    Madan, Jason; Ades, Anthony E.; Price, Malcolm; Maitland, Kathryn; Jemutai, Julie; Revill, Paul; Welton, Nicky J.

    2014-01-01

    Expected value of information methods evaluate the potential health benefits that can be obtained from conducting new research to reduce uncertainty in the parameters of a cost-effectiveness analysis model, hence reducing decision uncertainty. Expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) provides an upper limit to the health gains that can be obtained from conducting a new study on a subset of parameters in the cost-effectiveness analysis and can therefore be used as a sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that most contribute to decision uncertainty and to help guide decisions around which types of study are of most value to prioritize for funding. A common general approach is to use nested Monte Carlo simulation to obtain an estimate of EVPPI. This approach is computationally intensive, can lead to significant sampling bias if an inadequate number of inner samples are obtained, and incorrect results can be obtained if correlations between parameters are not dealt with appropriately. In this article, we set out a range of methods for estimating EVPPI that avoid the need for nested simulation: reparameterization of the net benefit function, Taylor series approximations, and restricted cubic spline estimation of conditional expectations. For each method, we set out the generalized functional form that net benefit must take for the method to be valid. By specifying this functional form, our methods are able to focus on components of the model in which approximation is required, avoiding the complexities involved in developing statistical approximations for the model as a whole. Our methods also allow for any correlations that might exist between model parameters. We illustrate the methods using an example of fluid resuscitation in African children with severe malaria. PMID:24449434

  11. Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing a population of northern bobwhites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.; Hagan, Greg; Palmer, William E.; Kemmerer, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The abundance of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) has decreased throughout their range. Managers often respond by considering improvements in harvest and habitat management practices, but this can be challenging if substantial uncertainty exists concerning the cause(s) of the decline. We were interested in how application of decision science could be used to help managers on a large, public management area in southwestern Florida where the bobwhite is a featured species and where abundance has severely declined. We conducted a workshop with managers and scientists to elicit management objectives, alternative hypotheses concerning population limitation in bobwhites, potential management actions, and predicted management outcomes. Using standard and robust approaches to decision making, we determined that improved water management and perhaps some changes in hunting practices would be expected to produce the best management outcomes in the face of uncertainty about what is limiting bobwhite abundance. We used a criterion called the expected value of perfect information to determine that a robust management strategy may perform nearly as well as an optimal management strategy (i.e., a strategy that is expected to perform best, given the relative importance of different management objectives) with all uncertainty resolved. We used the expected value of partial information to determine that management performance could be increased most by eliminating uncertainty over excessive-harvest and human-disturbance hypotheses. Beyond learning about the factors limiting bobwhites, adoption of a dynamic management strategy, which recognizes temporal changes in resource and environmental conditions, might produce the greatest management benefit. Our research demonstrates that robust approaches to decision making, combined with estimates of the value of information, can offer considerable insight into preferred management approaches when great uncertainty exists about system dynamics and the effects of management.

  12. Drivers Of Health As A Shared Value: Mindset, Expectations, Sense Of Community, And Civic Engagement.

    PubMed

    Chandra, Anita; Miller, Carolyn E; Acosta, Joie D; Weilant, Sarah; Trujillo, Matthew; Plough, Alonzo

    2016-11-01

    Making health a shared value is central to building a culture of health, a new action framework intended to spur faster progress toward equitable health outcomes in the United States. Unlike in other US social movements, such as the environmental and civil rights movements, the necessary understanding of shared values has not yet been achieved for health. Discussions about values regarding health have primarily focused on health care instead of health or well-being. These discussions have not progressed to a clear focus on prioritizing values on health instead of simply health care. The evidence base for understanding health as a shared value is only now emerging. Making health a shared value is the first of four Action Areas in the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Culture of Health Action Framework. We assert that the achievement of this shared understanding of health as a cultural value will be enhanced through action in specific drivers: mindset and expectations, sense of community, and civic engagement. Building on a literature review and stakeholder engagement, this article examines the evidence base for these drivers and identifies where policy and research actions are needed to advance positive change on population health and well-being outcomes. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  13. Patients' Expectations and Perceptions of Service Quality in the Selected Hospitals.

    PubMed

    Nadi, Aliasghar; Shojaee, Jalil; Abedi, Ghassem; Siamian, Hasan; Abedini, Ehsan; Rostami, Farideh

    2016-04-01

    Hospital's success depends on patients' expectations, perceptions, and judgment on the quality of services provided by hospitals. This study was conducted to assess the patients' perceptions and expectations from the quality of inpatient health care in Vali-Asr hospital, Ghaemshahr, and Imam Khomeini and Shafa Hospitals, Sari. This study is applied regarding the objective of the study. Considering the research methodology, it is a descriptive - analytical study. The sample of this study consists of 600 patients with at least 24 hours of being hospitalized in internal, surgery, women, and children sectors of Vali-Asr, Ghaemshahr, Imam Khomeini, and Shafa Hospitals. Using random sampling method, the classifications relevant to the size of each class were selected. The data required was collected through the standard SERVQUAL questionnaire and then it was analyzed using the SPSS software. The overall mean value and standard deviation of expectations were equal to 10.4 and 28, respectively. The mean value for the field of perception was 69.2 and the relevant standard deviation was 26. In terms of patients and hospital visits in concrete cases, the highest priority is related to empathy. The second priority is related to physical appearance, the third priority is related to responsiveness, the fourth priority is related to assurance, and the lowest priority is related to the reliability of the SERVQUAL approach. Examining the gap between patients' perceptions and expectations, the widest gap was observed in the Vali-Asr Hospital with the mean and SD (-92.0±39.0) and the lowest gap was observed in Shafa Hospital with the mean value of (-39.9±44.0). According to The Kruskal-Wallis test, the difference observed in these three hospitals were significant. The results showed that patients' expectations had not been met in any of the examined dimensions and their consent has not been achieved. It seemed that necessary for managers and relevant authorities to plan and pay special attention to this important issue.

  14. Differences in Placentophagia in Relation to Reproductive Status in the California Mouse (Peromyscus californicus)

    PubMed Central

    Perea-Rodriguez, Juan P.; Saltzman, Wendy

    2017-01-01

    Parturient females ingest placenta in most mammalian species, whereas fathers may do so in species in which both parents provide care for their offspring. To determine if the propensity to eat placenta varies with reproductive status in the biparental California mouse, we presented placenta to virgin (housed with a same-sex pairmate), expectant (pregnant with their first litter), and multiparous adult males and females. Liver was presented identically, 3–7 days later, as a control. Multiparous females were more likely to eat placenta than expectant and virgin females (p-values <0.016), whereas both multiparous and expectant males had higher incidences of placentophagia than virgins (p-values <0.016). Liver consumption did not differ among groups within either sex. These results suggest that propensity to eat placenta increases with maternal/birthing experience in females, and with paternal experience and/or cohabitation with a pregnant female in males. PMID:24114333

  15. Accounting for between-study variation in incremental net benefit in value of information methodology.

    PubMed

    Willan, Andrew R; Eckermann, Simon

    2012-10-01

    Previous applications of value of information methods for determining optimal sample size in randomized clinical trials have assumed no between-study variation in mean incremental net benefit. By adopting a hierarchical model, we provide a solution for determining optimal sample size with this assumption relaxed. The solution is illustrated with two examples from the literature. Expected net gain increases with increasing between-study variation, reflecting the increased uncertainty in incremental net benefit and reduced extent to which data are borrowed from previous evidence. Hence, a trial can become optimal where current evidence is sufficient assuming no between-study variation. However, despite the expected net gain increasing, the optimal sample size in the illustrated examples is relatively insensitive to the amount of between-study variation. Further percentage losses in expected net gain were small even when choosing sample sizes that reflected widely different between-study variation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Model testing for reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale.

    PubMed

    Resnick, B; Zimmerman, S; Orwig, D; Furstenberg, A L; Magaziner, J

    2001-01-01

    Development of a reliable and valid measure of outcome expectations for exercise appropriate for older adults will help establish the relationship between outcome expectations and exercise. Once established, this measure can be used to facilitate the development of interventions to strengthen outcome expectations and improve adherence to regular exercise in older adults. Building on initial psychometrics of the Outcome Expectation for Exercise (OEE) Scale, the purpose of the current study was to use structural equation modeling to provide additional support for the reliability and validity of this measure. The OEE scale is a 9-item measure specifically focusing on the perceived consequences of exercise for older adults. The OEE scale was given to 191 residents in a continuing care retirement community. The mean age of the participants was 85 +/- 6.1 and the majority were female (76%), White (99%), and unmarried (76%). Using structural equation modeling, reliability was based on R2 values, and validity was based on a confirmatory factor analysis and path coefficients. There was continued evidence for reliability of the OEE based on R2 values ranging from .42 to .77, and validity with path coefficients ranging from .69 to .87, and evidence of model fit (X2 of 69, df = 27, p < .05, NFI = .98, RMSEA = .07). The evidence of reliability and validity of this measure has important implications for clinical work and research. The OEE scale can be used to identify older adults who have low outcome expectations for exercise, and interventions can then be implemented to strengthen these expectations and thereby improve exercise behavior.

  17. Neural signatures of economic parameters during decision-making: a functional MRI (FMRI), electroencephalography (EEG) and autonomic monitoring study.

    PubMed

    Minati, Ludovico; Grisoli, Marina; Franceschetti, Silvana; Epifani, Francesca; Granvillano, Alice; Medford, Nick; Harrison, Neil A; Piacentini, Sylvie; Critchley, Hugo D

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive behaviour requires an ability to obtain rewards by choosing between different risky options. Financial gambles can be used to study effective decision-making experimentally, and to distinguish processes involved in choice option evaluation from outcome feedback and other contextual factors. Here, we used a paradigm where participants evaluated 'mixed' gambles, each presenting a potential gain and a potential loss and an associated variable outcome probability. We recorded neural responses using autonomic monitoring, electroencephalography (EEG) and functional neuroimaging (fMRI), and used a univariate, parametric design to test for correlations with the eleven economic parameters that varied across gambles, including expected value (EV) and amount magnitude. Consistent with behavioural economic theory, participants were risk-averse. Gamble evaluation generated detectable autonomic responses, but only weak correlations with outcome uncertainty were found, suggesting that peripheral autonomic feedback does not play a major role in this task. Long-latency stimulus-evoked EEG potentials were sensitive to expected gain and expected value, while alpha-band power reflected expected loss and amount magnitude, suggesting parallel representations of distinct economic qualities in cortical activation and central arousal. Neural correlates of expected value representation were localized using fMRI to ventromedial prefrontal cortex, while the processing of other economic parameters was associated with distinct patterns across lateral prefrontal, cingulate, insula and occipital cortices including default-mode network and early visual areas. These multimodal data provide complementary evidence for distributed substrates of choice evaluation across multiple, predominantly cortical, brain systems wherein distinct regions are preferentially attuned to specific economic features. Our findings extend biologically-plausible models of risky decision-making while providing potential biomarkers of economic representations that can be applied to the study of deficits in motivational behaviour in neurological and psychiatric patients.

  18. Implementing Generalized Additive Models to Estimate the Expected Value of Sample Information in a Microsimulation Model: Results of Three Case Studies.

    PubMed

    Rabideau, Dustin J; Pei, Pamela P; Walensky, Rochelle P; Zheng, Amy; Parker, Robert A

    2018-02-01

    The expected value of sample information (EVSI) can help prioritize research but its application is hampered by computational infeasibility, especially for complex models. We investigated an approach by Strong and colleagues to estimate EVSI by applying generalized additive models (GAM) to results generated from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). For 3 potential HIV prevention and treatment strategies, we estimated life expectancy and lifetime costs using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, a complex patient-level microsimulation model of HIV progression. We fitted a GAM-a flexible regression model that estimates the functional form as part of the model fitting process-to the incremental net monetary benefits obtained from the CEPAC PSA. For each case study, we calculated the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) using both the conventional nested Monte Carlo approach and the GAM approach. EVSI was calculated using the GAM approach. For all 3 case studies, the GAM approach consistently gave similar estimates of EVPPI compared with the conventional approach. The EVSI behaved as expected: it increased and converged to EVPPI for larger sample sizes. For each case study, generating the PSA results for the GAM approach required 3 to 4 days on a shared cluster, after which EVPPI and EVSI across a range of sample sizes were evaluated in minutes. The conventional approach required approximately 5 weeks for the EVPPI calculation alone. Estimating EVSI using the GAM approach with results from a PSA dramatically reduced the time required to conduct a computationally intense project, which would otherwise have been impractical. Using the GAM approach, we can efficiently provide policy makers with EVSI estimates, even for complex patient-level microsimulation models.

  19. Inquiry into the Hidden Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Scott E.

    1986-01-01

    Discusses distinctions between the formal, overt curriculum and the hidden or implicit curriculum that inculcates values and expectations not openly acknowledged. Before 1900, schools stressed homogeneity, efficiency, and obedience to ensure students' smooth transition from childhood to life in an industrialized society. These values became hidden…

  20. The Interactive Influence of Cannabis-Related Negative Expectancies and Coping Motives on Cannabis Use Behavior and Problems.

    PubMed

    Foster, Dawn W; Jeffries, Emily R; Zvolensky, Michael J; Buckner, Julia D

    2016-09-18

    The present study tested whether coping motives for cannabis use moderate the effect of negative expectancies on cannabis use. Participants were 149 (36.2% female, 61.59% non-Hispanic Caucasian) current cannabis users aged 18-36 (M = 21.01, SD = 3.09) who completed measures of cannabis-related expectancies and motives for use. Hierarchical multiple regressions were employed to investigate the predictive value of the interaction between negative expectancies and coping motives on cannabis use outcomes. Results revealed interactions between negative expectancies and coping motives with respect to past 90 day cannabis use frequency and cannabis problems. Global negative effects expectancies were associated with less frequent cannabis use, particularly among those with fewer coping motives. However, negative expectancies were related to more cannabis problems, particularly among those with higher coping motives. These results suggest it may be advisable to take coping motives into account when addressing expectancies among cannabis users.

  1. Minimizing the Maximum Expected Sample Size in Two-Stage Phase II Clinical Trials with Continuous Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Wason, James M. S.; Mander, Adrian P.

    2012-01-01

    Two-stage designs are commonly used for Phase II trials. Optimal two-stage designs have the lowest expected sample size for a specific treatment effect, for example, the null value, but can perform poorly if the true treatment effect differs. Here we introduce a design for continuous treatment responses that minimizes the maximum expected sample size across all possible treatment effects. The proposed design performs well for a wider range of treatment effects and so is useful for Phase II trials. We compare the design to a previously used optimal design and show it has superior expected sample size properties. PMID:22651118

  2. Gendered motivational processes affecting high school mathematics participation, educational aspirations, and career plans: a comparison of samples from Australia, Canada, and the United States.

    PubMed

    Watt, Helen M G; Shapka, Jennifer D; Morris, Zoe A; Durik, Amanda M; Keating, Daniel P; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

    2012-11-01

    In this international, longitudinal study, we explored gender differences in, and gendered relationships among, math-related motivations emphasized in the Eccles (Parsons) et al. (1983) expectancy-value framework, high school math participation, educational aspirations, and career plans. Participants were from Australia, Canada, and the United States (Ns = 358, 471, 418, respectively) in Grades 9/10 at Time 1 and Grades 11/12 at Time 2. The 3 samples came from suburban middle to upper-middle socioeconomic backgrounds, primarily of Anglo-European descent. Multivariate analyses of variance revealed stereotypic gender differences in educational and occupational outcomes only among the Australian sample. Multigroup structural equation models identified latent mean differences where male adolescents held higher intrinsic value for math in the Australian sample and higher ability/success expectancy in both North American samples. Ability/success expectancy was a key predictor in the North American samples, in contrast to intrinsic value in the Australian sample. Attainment/utility ("importance") values were more important for female adolescents' career choices, except in the Australian sample. Findings are interpreted in relation to gender socialization practices, degree and type of early choice, and specialization across settings. Implications are discussed for long-term math engagement and career selection for female and male adolescents. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    E. Borgonovo; C. L. Smith

    2012-10-01

    Risk Achievement Worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We obtain the conditions under which the equality holds between the nominal and expected values of a reliability riskmore » metric. Among these conditions, separability and state-of-knowledge independence emerge. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty aspects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.« less

  4. Assessment of spatial variability of major-ion concentrations and del oxygen-18 values in surface snow, Upper Fremont Glacier, Wyoming, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Naftz, D.L.; Schuster, P.F.; Reddy, M.M.

    1994-01-01

    One hundred samples were collected from the surface of the Upper Fremont Glacier at equally spaced intervals defined by an 8100m2 snow grid to asesss the significance of lateral variability in major-ion concentrations and del oxygen-18 values. Comparison of the observed variability of each chemical constituent to the variability expected by measurement error indicated substantial lateral variability with the surface-snow layer. Results of the nested ANOVA indicate most of the variance for every constituent is in the values grouped at the two smaller geographic scales (between 506m2 and within 506m2 sections). The variance data from the snow grid were used to develop equations to evaluate the significance of both positive and negative concentration/value peaks of nitrate and del oxygen-18 with depth, in a 160m ice core. Values of del oxygen-18 in the section from 110-150m below the surface consistently vary outside the expected limits and possibly represents cooler temperatures during the Little Ice Age from about 1810 to 1725 A.D. -from Authors

  5. Segmenting and targeting American university students to promote responsible alcohol use: a case for applying social marketing principles.

    PubMed

    Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

    2011-10-01

    The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed.

  6. COBE satellite measurement, hyperspheres, superstrings and the dimension of spacetime.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El Naschie, M. S.

    1998-08-01

    The first part of the paper attempts to establish connections between hypersphere backing in infinite dimensions, the expectation value of dimE(∞) spacetime and the COBE measurement of the microwave background radiation. One of the main results reported here is that the mean sphere in S(∞) spans a four dimensional manifold and is thus equal to the expectation value of the topological dimension of E(∞). In the second part the author introduces within a general theory, a probabilistic justification for a compactification which reduces an infinite dimensional spacetime E(∞) (n = ∞) to a four dimensional one (DT = n = 4).

  7. Efficiency degradation due to tracking errors for point focusing solar collectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hughes, R. O.

    1978-01-01

    An important parameter in the design of point focusing solar collectors is the intercept factor which is a measure of efficiency and of energy available for use in the receiver. Using statistical methods, an expression of the expected value of the intercept factor is derived for various configurations and control law implementations. The analysis assumes that a radially symmetric flux distribution (not necessarily Gaussian) is generated at the focal plane due to the sun's finite image and various reflector errors. The time-varying tracking errors are assumed to be uniformly distributed within the threshold limits and allows the expected value calculation.

  8. Spurious symptom reduction in fault monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shontz, William D.; Records, Roger M.; Choi, Jai J.

    1993-01-01

    Previous work accomplished on NASA's Faultfinder concept suggested that the concept was jeopardized by spurious symptoms generated in the monitoring phase. The purpose of the present research was to investigate methods of reducing the generation of spurious symptoms during in-flight engine monitoring. Two approaches for reducing spurious symptoms were investigated. A knowledge base of rules was constructed to filter known spurious symptoms and a neural net was developed to improve the expectation values used in the monitoring process. Both approaches were effective in reducing spurious symptoms individually. However, the best results were obtained using a hybrid system combining the neural net capability to improve expectation values with the rule-based logic filter.

  9. Massless rotating fermions inside a cylinder

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ambruş, Victor E., E-mail: victor.ambrus@gmail.com; Winstanley, Elizabeth

    2015-12-07

    We study rotating thermal states of a massless quantum fermion field inside a cylinder in Minkowski space-time. Two possible boundary conditions for the fermion field on the cylinder are considered: the spectral and MIT bag boundary conditions. If the radius of the cylinder is sufficiently small, rotating thermal expectation values are finite everywhere inside the cylinder. We also study the Casimir divergences on the boundary. The rotating thermal expectation values and the Casimir divergences have different properties depending on the boundary conditions applied at the cylinder. This is due to the local nature of the MIT bag boundary condition, whilemore » the spectral boundary condition is nonlocal.« less

  10. Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah@Rozita

    2014-06-01

    Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stable information ratio.

  11. In-situ resource utilization for the human exploration of Mars : a Bayesian approach to valuation of precursor missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Jeffrey H.

    2006-01-01

    The need for sufficient quantities of oxygen, water, and fuel resources to support a crew on the surface of Mars presents a critical logistical issue of whether to transport such resources from Earth or manufacture them on Mars. An approach based on the classical Wildcat Drilling Problem of Bayesian decision theory was applied to the problem of finding water in order to compute the expected value of precursor mission sample information. An implicit (required) probability of finding water on Mars was derived from the value of sample information using the expected mass savings of alternative precursor missions.

  12. When Expectations Clash: Vocational Education at the Intersection of Workplace and School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tyson, Ruhi

    2016-01-01

    Next to highly regarded varieties of apprenticeship-based vocational education there are, in many countries, forms of mainly school-based VET (vocational education and training) that suffer from a clash of expectations between schools and workplaces as sites of vocational education. School-based VET is viewed as of lesser value compared to work…

  13. An Experimental Evaluation of the Effects of a Realistic Job Preview on Marine Recruit Affect, Intentions and Behavior

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-09-01

    individual level of analysis , met expectations were shown to be significantly related to attrition and propensity to withdraw. What are the implications of...35 Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... 36 Trust and Honesty .. ...... .... 37 Individual Level of Analysis . . . . . . . 38 Met Expectations...48 Design and Precedures ............ . 51 Sub- analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Measures ...... 55 Criteria Measures

  14. Non-Traditional Educational Trajectories: The Educational Aspirations and Expectations of Women Who Are Educationally Disadvantaged

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coffield, Claudia Ditmar

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the educational aspirations and expectations of a heterogeneous group of women who were enrolled in, or had graduated from, adult education and literacy programs in Boston, Massachusetts. The research questions guiding the inquiry are: (1) Why do educationally disadvantaged women value education--how are these values…

  15. An Empirical Approach to the St. Petersburg Paradox

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klyve, Dominic; Lauren, Anna

    2011-01-01

    The St. Petersburg game is a probabilistic thought experiment. It describes a game which seems to have infinite expected value, but which no reasonable person could be expected to pay much to play. Previous empirical work has centered around trying to find the most likely payoff that would result from playing the game n times. In this paper, we…

  16. Equity and Advocacy Expectations of Culturally Diverse Families' Participation in Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalyanpur, Maya; Harry, Beth; Skrtic, Tom

    2000-01-01

    This article contends that the equity and advocacy expectations embedded in the legal mandate for parent participation in the special education decision-making process directly contradict the hierarchy of professional status and knowledge on which the positivist paradigm of professionalism is based and are also in conflict with the values held by…

  17. Impact of Expectancy-Value and Situational Interest Motivation Specificity on Physical Education Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ding, Haiyong; Sun, Haichun; Chen, Ang

    2013-01-01

    To be successful in learning, students need to be motivated to engage and learn. The domain-specificity motivation theory articulates that student motivation is often determined by the content being taught to them. The purpose of this study was to extend the theory by determining domain-specificity of situational interest and expectancy-value…

  18. Assessing decision making and dispute resolution in environmental policy: Regulatory negotiations at the Environmental Protection Agency

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lyons, E.A.

    This dissertation is an evaluation of the use of negotiations in the rule-making context at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The goal is to assess the benefits and the limitations of negotiation as a policy process, and to make explicit the values which are expected from a negotiation process as well as the conditions which must be met in order for those values to be realized. Three distinct values are expected of negotiation processes: (1) negotiation is promoted as an efficient process that can save time and money in public decision making by avoiding protracted and expensive legal actions;more » (2) it is expected that a negotiation process which provides a mechanism for reaching accommodation among all competing perspectives can yield good policy outcomes; face-to-face interactions among parties with competing interests should provide opportunities for building better relationships among individuals and also for building community. The usefulness of negotiation as a policy tool is limited by the fact that negotiation is only appropriate in a few select cases in which the issues are mature and the parties affected by the issues are prepared for negotiation.« less

  19. Sentiment of Search: KM and IT for User Expectations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berndt, Sarah Ann; Meza, David

    2014-01-01

    User perceived value is the number one indicator of a successful implementation of KM and IT collaborations. The system known as "Search" requires more strategy and workflow that a mere data dump or ungoverned infrastructure can provide. Monitoring of user sentiment can be a driver for providing objective measures of success and justifying changes to the user interface. The dynamic nature of information technology makes traditional usability metrics difficult to identify, yet easy to argue against. There is little disagreement, however, on the criticality of adapting to user needs and expectations. The Systems Usability Scale (SUS), developed by John Brook in 1986 has become an industry standard for usability engineering. The first phase of a modified SUS, polls the sentiment of representative users of the JSC Search system. This information can be used to correlate user determined value with types of information sought and how the system is (or is not) meeting expectations. Sentiment analysis by way of the SUS assists an organization in identification and prioritization of the KM and IT variables impacting user perceived value. A secondary, user group focused analysis is the topic of additional work that demonstrates the impact of specific changes dictated by user sentiment.

  20. An integrated model of decision-making in health contexts: the role of science education in health education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, Julia C.

    2018-03-01

    Health education is to foster health literacy, informed decision-making and to promote health behaviour. To date, there are several models that seek to explain health behaviour (e.g. the Theory of Planned Behaviour or the Health Belief Model). These models include motivational factors (expectancies and values) that play a role in decision-making in health contexts. In this theoretical paper, it is argued that none of these models makes consequent use of expectancy-value pairs. It is further argued that in order to make these models fruitful for science education and for informed decision-making, models should systematically incorporate knowledge as part of the decision-making process. To fill this gap, this theoretical paper introduces The Integrated Model of Decision-Making in Health Contexts. This model includes three types of knowledge (system health knowledge, action-related health knowledge and effectiveness health knowledge) as influencing factors for motivational factors (perceived health threat, attitude towards health action, attitude towards health outcome and subjective norm) that are formed of expectancy-value pairs and lead to decisions. The model's potential for health education in science education as well as research implications is discussed.

  1. Gauge-invariant expectation values of the energy of a molecule in an electromagnetic field

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mandal, Anirban; Hunt, Katharine L. C.

    In this paper, we show that the full Hamiltonian for a molecule in an electromagnetic field can be separated into a molecular Hamiltonian and a field Hamiltonian, both with gauge-invariant expectation values. The expectation value of the molecular Hamiltonian gives physically meaningful results for the energy of a molecule in a time-dependent applied field. In contrast, the usual partitioning of the full Hamiltonian into molecular and field terms introduces an arbitrary gauge-dependent potential into the molecular Hamiltonian and leaves a gauge-dependent form of the Hamiltonian for the field. With the usual partitioning of the Hamiltonian, this same problem of gaugemore » dependence arises even in the absence of an applied field, as we show explicitly by considering a gauge transformation from zero applied field and zero external potentials to zero applied field, but non-zero external vector and scalar potentials. We resolve this problem and also remove the gauge dependence from the Hamiltonian for a molecule in a non-zero applied field and from the field Hamiltonian, by repartitioning the full Hamiltonian. It is possible to remove the gauge dependence because the interaction of the molecular charges with the gauge potential cancels identically with a gauge-dependent term in the usual form of the field Hamiltonian. We treat the electromagnetic field classically and treat the molecule quantum mechanically, but nonrelativistically. Our derivation starts from the Lagrangian for a set of charged particles and an electromagnetic field, with the particle coordinates, the vector potential, the scalar potential, and their time derivatives treated as the variables in the Lagrangian. We construct the full Hamiltonian using a Lagrange multiplier method originally suggested by Dirac, partition this Hamiltonian into a molecular term H{sub m} and a field term H{sub f}, and show that both H{sub m} and H{sub f} have gauge-independent expectation values. Any gauge may be chosen for the calculations; but following our partitioning, the expectation values of the molecular Hamiltonian are identical to those obtained directly in the Coulomb gauge. As a corollary of this result, the power absorbed by a molecule from a time-dependent, applied electromagnetic field is equal to the time derivative of the non-adiabatic term in the molecular energy, in any gauge.« less

  2. Effort-based cost-benefit valuation and the human brain

    PubMed Central

    Croxson, Paula L; Walton, Mark E; O'Reilly, Jill X; Behrens, Timothy EJ; Rushworth, Matthew FS

    2010-01-01

    In both the wild and the laboratory, animals' preferences for one course of action over another reflect not just reward expectations but also the cost in terms of effort that must be invested in pursuing the course of action. The ventral striatum and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACCd) are implicated in the making of cost-benefit decisions in the rat but there is little information about how effort costs are processed and influence calculations of expected net value in other mammals including the human. We carried out a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study to determine whether and where activity in the human brain was available to guide effort-based cost-benefit valuation. Subjects were scanned while they performed a series of effortful actions to obtain secondary reinforcers. At the beginning of each trial, subjects were presented with one of eight different visual cues which they had learned indicated how much effort the course of action would entail and how much reward could be expected at its completion. Cue-locked activity in the ventral striatum and midbrain reflected the net value of the course of action, signaling the expected amount of reward discounted by the amount of effort to be invested. Activity in ACCd also reflected the interaction of both expected reward and effort costs. Posterior orbitofrontal and insular activity, however, only reflected the expected reward magnitude. The ventral striatum and anterior cingulate cortex may be the substrate of effort-based cost-benefit valuation in primates as well as in rats. PMID:19357278

  3. Making Data Work Harder: OCLC Shows How Data Mined from Systems like WorldCat Can Add Value for Librarians and Users

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lavoie, Brian; Dempsey, Lorcan; Connaway, Lynn Silipigni

    2006-01-01

    If librarians want to improve their visibility and value in the increasingly crowded digital information spaces, where users expect good results without expending much time or effort, they must learn to repurpose data to create added value. Since librarians already possess valuable data sources, like circulation statistics, reference transactions,…

  4. "Impact", "Value' and "Bad Economics": Making Sense of the Problem of Value in the Arts and Humanities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belfiore, Eleonora

    2015-01-01

    Questions around the value of the arts and humanities to the contemporary world and the benefits they are expected to bring to the society that supports them through funding have assumed an increased centrality within a number of disciplines, not limited to humanities scholarship. Especially problematic, yet crucial, is the issue of the…

  5. A Latent Growth Curve Modeling Approach Using an Accelerated Longitudinal Design: The Ontogeny of Boys' and Girls' Talent Perceptions and Intrinsic Values through Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watt, Helen M. G.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents latent growth modeling, a particular application of multilevel modeling, to examine the development of adolescents' math- and English-related talent perceptions and intrinsic values which are emphasized by Expectancy-Value theory as important precursors to a range of achievement-related outcomes. The longitudinal…

  6. 26 CFR 1.860E-1 - Treatment of taxable income of a residual interest holder in excess of daily accruals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... equals the product of the present value of the anticipated excess inclusions and the highest rate of tax... sufficient to satisfy the accrued taxes. (3) Computations. The present value of the expected future... formula test if the present value of the anticipated tax liabilities associated with holding the residual...

  7. 26 CFR 1.860E-1 - Treatment of taxable income of a residual interest holder in excess of daily accruals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... equals the product of the present value of the anticipated excess inclusions and the highest rate of tax... sufficient to satisfy the accrued taxes. (3) Computations. The present value of the expected future... formula test if the present value of the anticipated tax liabilities associated with holding the residual...

  8. 26 CFR 1.860E-1 - Treatment of taxable income of a residual interest holder in excess of daily accruals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... equals the product of the present value of the anticipated excess inclusions and the highest rate of tax... sufficient to satisfy the accrued taxes. (3) Computations. The present value of the expected future... formula test if the present value of the anticipated tax liabilities associated with holding the residual...

  9. 26 CFR 1.860E-1 - Treatment of taxable income of a residual interest holder in excess of daily accruals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... equals the product of the present value of the anticipated excess inclusions and the highest rate of tax... sufficient to satisfy the accrued taxes. (3) Computations. The present value of the expected future... formula test if the present value of the anticipated tax liabilities associated with holding the residual...

  10. 26 CFR 1.860E-1 - Treatment of taxable income of a residual interest holder in excess of daily accruals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... equals the product of the present value of the anticipated excess inclusions and the highest rate of tax... sufficient to satisfy the accrued taxes. (3) Computations. The present value of the expected future... formula test if the present value of the anticipated tax liabilities associated with holding the residual...

  11. What You See Is What You Get: The Role of Early Adolescents' Perceptions in the Intergenerational Transmission of Academic Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gniewosz, Burkhard; Noack, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The present research addresses processes involved in academic value transmission within family. Drawing on expectancy x value and social learning theory, a two-wave longitudinal study based on data from 1014 students, 878 mothers, and 748 fathers was conducted to examine the mechanisms of parental influence. Structural equation modeling provided…

  12. Evaluating Expected Costs and Benefits of Granting Access to New Treatments on the Basis of Progression-Free Survival in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

    PubMed

    Lakdawalla, Darius N; Chou, Jacquelyn W; Linthicum, Mark T; MacEwan, Joanna P; Zhang, Jie; Goldman, Dana P

    2015-05-01

    Surrogate end points may be used as proxy for more robust clinical end points. One prominent example is the use of progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in trials for oncologic treatments. Decisions based on surrogate end points may expedite regulatory approval but may not accurately reflect drug efficacy. Payers and clinicians must balance the potential benefits of earlier treatment access based on surrogate end points against the risks of clinical uncertainty. To present a framework for evaluating the expected net benefit or cost of providing early access to new treatments on the basis of evidence of PFS benefits before OS results are available, using non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) as an example. A probabilistic decision model was used to estimate expected incremental social value of the decision to grant access to a new treatment on the basis of PFS evidence. The model analyzed a hypothetical population of patients with NSCLC who could be treated during the period between PFS and OS evidence publication. Estimates for delay in publication of OS evidence following publication of PFS evidence, expected OS benefit given PFS benefit, incremental cost of new treatment, and other parameters were drawn from the literature on treatment of NSCLC. Incremental social value of early access for each additional patient per month (in 2014 US dollars). For "medium-value" model parameters, early reimbursement of drugs with any PFS benefit yields an incremental social cost of more than $170,000 per newly treated patient per month. In contrast, granting early access on the basis of PFS benefit between 1 and 3.5 months produces more than $73,000 in incremental social value. Across the full range of model parameter values, granting access for drugs with PFS benefit between 3 and 3.5 months is robustly beneficial, generating incremental social value ranging from $38,000 to more than $1 million per newly treated patient per month, whereas access for all drugs with any PFS benefit is usually not beneficial. The value of providing access to new treatments on the basis of surrogate end points, and PFS in particular, likely varies considerably. Payers and clinicians should carefully consider how to use PFS data in balancing potential benefits against costs in each particular disease.

  13. Application of Artificial Neural Network to Optical Fluid Analyzer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kimura, Makoto; Nishida, Katsuhiko

    1994-04-01

    A three-layer artificial neural network has been applied to the presentation of optical fluid analyzer (OFA) raw data, and the accuracy of oil fraction determination has been significantly improved compared to previous approaches. To apply the artificial neural network approach to solving a problem, the first step is training to determine the appropriate weight set for calculating the target values. This involves using a series of data sets (each comprising a set of input values and an associated set of output values that the artificial neural network is required to determine) to tune artificial neural network weighting parameters so that the output of the neural network to the given set of input values is as close as possible to the required output. The physical model used to generate the series of learning data sets was the effective flow stream model, developed for OFA data presentation. The effectiveness of the training was verified by reprocessing the same input data as were used to determine the weighting parameters and then by comparing the results of the artificial neural network to the expected output values. The standard deviation of the expected and obtained values was approximately 10% (two sigma).

  14. An exploratory study on the relationship between parents' passion for sport/exercise and children's self- and task-perceptions in sport/exercise.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chen-Yueh

    2014-06-01

    This study investigated the relationship between parents' passion for sport/exercise and children's self- and task-perceptions in sport and exercise. Paired samples of 312 children, 312 fathers, and 312 mothers were collected using two-stage sampling; parents were classified based on their passion for sport and exercise as high concordance if both parents had a high passion for sport and exercise, low concordance if neither parent had a passion for sport and exercise, or discordant. Intrinsic interest value, attainment value/importance, extrinsic utility value, ability/expectancy, task difficulty, and required effort were measured, as well as harmonious and obsessive passion. Children's self- and task-perceptions in sport and exercise were examined with respect to parents' passion for sport and exercise. The results of the study indicated that children of parents with high concordance in harmonious passion for sport and exercise scored higher on intrinsic interest value, attainment value/importance, extrinsic utility value, ability/expectancy, task difficulty, and required effort in sport and exercise than counterparts with discordant and low concordance parents. Similar patterns were found for obsessive passion in parents.

  15. Teachers' Roles, Students' Personalities, Inquiry Learning Outcomes, and Practices of Science and Engineering: The Development and Validation of the McGill Attainment Value for Inquiry Engagement Survey in STEM Disciplines

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ibrahim, Ahmed; Aulls, Mark W.; Shore, Bruce M.

    2017-01-01

    Inquiry engagement is a newly defined construct that represents the participation in carrying out practices of science and engineering to achieve learning outcomes and is influenced by learners' personalities and teachers' roles. Expectancy value theory posits that attainment values are important components of task values that, in turn, directly…

  16. Hard Truths: Uncovering the Deep Structure of Schooling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tye, Barbara Benham

    The "deep structure of schooling" is composed of values and assumptions about education widely shared throughout our society. These values and assumptions are shaped by conventional wisdom, tradition, vested interests, and institutional inertia. Americans expect similarities in classrooms, policies, programs, pedagogy, resource allocation,…

  17. Intercultural Internet-Based Learning: Know Your Audience and What They Value

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bentley, Joanne P. H.; Tinney, Mari Vawn; Chia, Bing Howe

    2004-01-01

    As the internet-based learning (IBL) market becomes increasingly global, understanding differing educational values and cultural expectations could provide an important competitive edge for providers (universities, publishing houses, and corporate training entities). How each of person determines "good" or "quality" instruction…

  18. Ours and Mine.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trumbull, Elise; Rothstein-Fisch, Carrie; Greenfield, Patricia M.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Bridging Cultures framework, a tool for understanding how the expectations for a student at school may conflict with the values of the student's family. The framework describes two contrasting value systems (individualism and collectivism) and helps teachers consider where differences may lie to head off potential conflict. (SM)

  19. Reinforcement Learning Models and Their Neural Correlates: An Activation Likelihood Estimation Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Poornima; Eickhoff, Simon B.; Dombrovski, Alexandre Y.

    2015-01-01

    Reinforcement learning describes motivated behavior in terms of two abstract signals. The representation of discrepancies between expected and actual rewards/punishments – prediction error – is thought to update the expected value of actions and predictive stimuli. Electrophysiological and lesion studies suggest that mesostriatal prediction error signals control behavior through synaptic modification of cortico-striato-thalamic networks. Signals in the ventromedial prefrontal and orbitofrontal cortex are implicated in representing expected value. To obtain unbiased maps of these representations in the human brain, we performed a meta-analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging studies that employed algorithmic reinforcement learning models, across a variety of experimental paradigms. We found that the ventral striatum (medial and lateral) and midbrain/thalamus represented reward prediction errors, consistent with animal studies. Prediction error signals were also seen in the frontal operculum/insula, particularly for social rewards. In Pavlovian studies, striatal prediction error signals extended into the amygdala, while instrumental tasks engaged the caudate. Prediction error maps were sensitive to the model-fitting procedure (fixed or individually-estimated) and to the extent of spatial smoothing. A correlate of expected value was found in a posterior region of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, caudal and medial to the orbitofrontal regions identified in animal studies. These findings highlight a reproducible motif of reinforcement learning in the cortico-striatal loops and identify methodological dimensions that may influence the reproducibility of activation patterns across studies. PMID:25665667

  20. Replica and extreme-value analysis of the Jarzynski free-energy estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palassini, Matteo; Ritort, Felix

    2008-03-01

    We analyze the Jarzynski estimator of free-energy differences from nonequilibrium work measurements. By a simple mapping onto Derrida's Random Energy Model, we obtain a scaling limit for the expectation of the bias of the estimator. We then derive analytical approximations in three different regimes of the scaling parameter x = log(N)/W, where N is the number of measurements and W the mean dissipated work. Our approach is valid for a generic distribution of the dissipated work, and is based on a replica symmetry breaking scheme for x >> 1, the asymptotic theory of extreme value statistics for x << 1, and a direct approach for x near one. The combination of the three analytic approximations describes well Monte Carlo data for the expectation value of the estimator, for a wide range of values of N, from N=1 to large N, and for different work distributions. Based on these results, we introduce improved free-energy estimators and discuss the application to the analysis of experimental data.

  1. Bulk hydrodynamic stability and turbulent saturation in compressing hot spots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidovits, Seth; Fisch, Nathaniel J.

    2018-04-01

    For hot spots compressed at constant velocity, we give a hydrodynamic stability criterion that describes the expected energy behavior of non-radial hydrodynamic motion for different classes of trajectories (in ρR — T space). For a given compression velocity, this criterion depends on ρR, T, and d T /d (ρR ) (the trajectory slope) and applies point-wise so that the expected behavior can be determined instantaneously along the trajectory. Among the classes of trajectories are those where the hydromotion is guaranteed to decrease and those where the hydromotion is bounded by a saturated value. We calculate this saturated value and find the compression velocities for which hydromotion may be a substantial fraction of hot-spot energy at burn time. The Lindl (Phys. Plasmas 2, 3933 (1995)] "attractor" trajectory is shown to experience non-radial hydrodynamic energy that grows towards this saturated state. Comparing the saturation value with the available detailed 3D simulation results, we find that the fluctuating velocities in these simulations reach substantial fractions of the saturated value.

  2. EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF THE ORTHO/PARA RATIO OF NEWLY FORMED MOLECULAR HYDROGEN ON AMORPHOUS SOLID WATER

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gavilan, L.; Lemaire, J. L.; Dulieu, F.

    2012-11-20

    Several astronomical observations have shown that the ortho/para ratio (OPR) of H{sub 2} can differ from the expected statistical value of 3 or the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) value at the gas or dust temperature. It is thus important to know the OPR of H{sub 2} newly formed on dust grain surfaces, in order to clarify the dependence of the observed OPR in space on the formation process. Using an experimental setup designed to mimic interstellar medium environments, we measured the OPR of H{sub 2} and D{sub 2} formed on the surface of porous amorphous water ice held at 10more » K. We report for the first time the OPR value for newly formed D{sub 2}, consistent with the expected LTE value at the high-temperature limit found by previous theoretical and experimental works on the determination of the OPR upon H{sub 2} formation on surfaces at low temperature.« less

  3. The Effect of Expected Value on Attraction Effect Preference Reversals.

    PubMed

    Farmer, George D; Warren, Paul A; El-Deredy, Wael; Howes, Andrew

    2017-10-01

    The attraction effect shows that adding a third alternative to a choice set can alter preference between the original two options. For over 30 years, this simple demonstration of context dependence has been taken as strong evidence against a class of parsimonious value-maximising models that evaluate alternatives independently from one another. Significantly, however, in previous demonstrations of the attraction effect alternatives are approximately equally valuable, so there was little consequence to the decision maker irrespective of which alternative was selected. Here we vary the difference in expected value between alternatives and provide the first demonstration that, although extinguished with large differences, this theoretically important effect persists when choice between alternatives has a consequence. We use this result to clarify the implications of the attraction effect, arguing that although it robustly violates the assumptions of value-maximising models, it does not eliminate the possibility that human decision making is optimal. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Receptor theory and biological constraints on value.

    PubMed

    Berns, Gregory S; Capra, C Monica; Noussair, Charles

    2007-05-01

    Modern economic theories of value derive from expected utility theory. Behavioral evidence points strongly toward departures from linear value weighting, which has given rise to alternative formulations that include prospect theory and rank-dependent utility theory. Many of the nonlinear forms for value assumed by these theories can be derived from the assumption that value is signaled by neurotransmitters in the brain, which obey simple laws of molecular movement. From the laws of mass action and receptor occupancy, we show how behaviorally observed forms of nonlinear value functions can arise.

  5. Expectations of millennial nurse graduates transitioning into practice.

    PubMed

    Andrews, Diane Randall

    2013-01-01

    Identified as Millennials, nurses born after 1980 are anticipated to redefine the employer-employee relationship as one based on the employee's wants and needs. The purpose of this study is to portray the expectations of Millennial student nurses immediately before graduation. Understanding these expectations may provide insight for leaders who are responsible for crafting a successful transition experience. Successful transition and decreased turnover are important elements of cost management for the nursing enterprise. A qualitative descriptive design was used to collect data from 14 students enrolled in a traditional BSN academic nursing program approximately 2 months prior to graduation. Upon completion of private, confidential semistructured interviews, data were transcribed, coded, and analyzed. Demographic data were compiled and interview data summarized according to identified themes. Three overarching themes emerged: the expectation that transition would be stressful, the expectation that there would be a safety net of support, and the expectation to be valued and respected as a professional. Revealing was the expectation of supportive relationships and a collaborative approach to patient care. Failure to meet those expectations may result in turnover as Millennials seek opportunities that meet their expectations.

  6. Intelligibility for Binaural Speech with Discarded Low-SNR Speech Components.

    PubMed

    Schoenmaker, Esther; van de Par, Steven

    2016-01-01

    Speech intelligibility in multitalker settings improves when the target speaker is spatially separated from the interfering speakers. A factor that may contribute to this improvement is the improved detectability of target-speech components due to binaural interaction in analogy to the Binaural Masking Level Difference (BMLD). This would allow listeners to hear target speech components within specific time-frequency intervals that have a negative SNR, similar to the improvement in the detectability of a tone in noise when these contain disparate interaural difference cues. To investigate whether these negative-SNR target-speech components indeed contribute to speech intelligibility, a stimulus manipulation was performed where all target components were removed when local SNRs were smaller than a certain criterion value. It can be expected that for sufficiently high criterion values target speech components will be removed that do contribute to speech intelligibility. For spatially separated speakers, assuming that a BMLD-like detection advantage contributes to intelligibility, degradation in intelligibility is expected already at criterion values below 0 dB SNR. However, for collocated speakers it is expected that higher criterion values can be applied without impairing speech intelligibility. Results show that degradation of intelligibility for separated speakers is only seen for criterion values of 0 dB and above, indicating a negligible contribution of a BMLD-like detection advantage in multitalker settings. These results show that the spatial benefit is related to a spatial separation of speech components at positive local SNRs rather than to a BMLD-like detection improvement for speech components at negative local SNRs.

  7. VALUE: Valid Assessment of Learning in Undergraduate Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Terrel L.

    2008-01-01

    This chapter discusses the Association of American Colleges and Universities' (AAC&U's) Valid Assessment of Learning in Undergraduate Education (VALUE) project, which aims to demonstrate that faculty across the country share fundamental expectations about student learning on all of the essential learning outcomes deemed critical for student…

  8. The effect of individual differences and manipulated life expectancies on the willingness to engage in sexual coercion.

    PubMed

    Dunkel, Curtis S; Mathes, Eugene

    2011-12-16

    The role of the individual difference variables of mate value, short-term and long-term mating preferences, and life history strategy along with the manipulated variable of life expectancy were used to predict differences in the willingness to engage in sexually coercive behaviors. Short-term preferences and long-term preferences were correlated with the willingness to engage in sexual coercion at all life expectancies. Life history strategy was correlated with the willingness to engage in sexual coercion at only the shortest and longest life expectancies. Most importantly short-term and long-term mating preferences interacted with life expectancy to predict the willingness to engage in sexually coercive behaviors. Short life expectancies increased willingness in individuals with high short-term and low long-term preferences. The results are discussed in terms of the varying theories of sexual coercion with emphasis put on a life history approach.

  9. A statistical study of merging galaxies: Theory and observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chatterjee, Tapan K.

    1990-01-01

    A study of the expected frequency of merging galaxies is conducted, using the impulsive approximation. Results indicate that if we consider mergers involving galaxy pairs without halos in a single crossing time or orbital period, the expected frequency of mergers is two orders of magnitude below the observed value for the present epoch. If we consider mergers involving several orbital periods or crossing times, the expected frequency goes up by an order of magnitude. Preliminary calculation indicate that if we consider galaxy mergers between pairs with massive halos, the merger is very much hastened.

  10. NYU Ada/Ed User’s Guide - Version 1.4 for VAX/VMS Systems.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-07-01

    Executble fie).M h le contains the Intermediate code from the alajie, bound togethr with the scomsary compilaton units bum libaries rquested by the pmn...3.5.4 bounds in -n integer type definition must be of sme intge type 3.5.7 Expect static expression for digits 3.5.7 Expect integer expression for...DI&13 3.5.7 Invalid digits value in real type dedwaation 3.5.7 Expect static expression for delta 3.5.9 Expression for delta must be of some real type

  11. The influence of pain-related expectations on intensity perception of non-painful somatosensory stimuli.

    PubMed

    Zaman, Jonas; Wiech, Katja; Claes, Nathalie; Van Oudenhove, Lukas; Van Diest, Ilse; Vlaeyen, Johan W S

    2018-04-03

    The extent to which pain-related expectations, known to affect pain perception, also affect perception of non-painful sensations remains unclear, as well as the potential role of unpredictability in this context. In a proprioceptive fear conditioning paradigm, various arm extension movements were associated with predictable and unpredictable electrocutaneous pain or its absence. During a subsequent test phase non-painful electrocutaneous stimuli with a high or low intensity were presented during movement execution. We used hierarchical drift diffusion modeling to examine the influence of expecting pain on the perceptual decision-making process underlying intensity perception of non-painful sensations. In the first experiment (n=36), the pain stimulus was never presented during the test phase after conditioning. In the second experiment (n=39), partial reinforcement was adopted to prevent extinction of pain expectations. In both experiments, movements that were associated with (un)predictable pain led to higher pain-expectancy, self-reported fear, unpleasantness and arousal, as compared to movements that were never paired with pain (effect sizes ηp ranging from .119 - .557; all p-values < .05). Only in the second experiment - when the threat of the pain US remained present - we found that the expectation of pain affected decision-making. Compared to the no pain condition, an a priori decision-making bias towards the high intensity decision threshold was found with the strongest bias during unpredictable pain (effect sizes ηp ranging from .469 - .504; all p-values < .001). Thus, the expectation of pain not only affects inferential processes for subsequent painful but also for non-painful bodily stimuli, with unpredictability moderating these effects, and only when the threat of pain remains present due to partial reinforcement.

  12. Direct and indirect effects of alcohol expectancies through drinking motives on alcohol outcomes among students in Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Diep, Pham Bich; Schelleman-Offermans, K; Kuntsche, E; De Vries, Nanne; Knibbe, Ronald A

    2016-01-01

    To investigate whether the links between alcohol expectancies (tension reduction; global positive change; improved cognitive and motor abilities; and change in social behavior) and alcohol outcomes (drinking volume, 6+ drinks, alcohol problems, and symptoms of alcohol dependence) are mediated by drinking motives (social, enhancement, conformity, and coping). A multi-stage sampling strategy was used in four Vietnamese provinces, resulting in a final sample of 4756 students (43.2% females) with mean age 20.6 (SD 1.8) years. Structural equation models, including indirect effects, were estimated for women and men separately. Overall, there were many cases of full mediation (indirect effects range from -0.006 to 0.083 and p-values from <0.05 to <0.001) and little indication of partial mediation (indirect effects range from -0.009 to 0.025 and p-values from <0.05 to <0.001). In both men and women, coping motives most frequently mediated the influence of expectancies on alcohol outcomes. Among men, enhancement motives and, to a lesser extent, social motives also played a role in mediating the effects of expectancies on alcohol outcomes. Among women, full mediation was found far less often and less consistently. By confirming that, in Vietnam, motives mediate the link between expectancies and drinking behavior, this study supports the cultural robustness of a key assumption of the motivational model (i.e. that drinking motives are more closely associated with alcohol use than expectancies). Enhancement, coping and social motives are most frequently found as mediators among male students whereas coping motive only is most frequently found as a mediator among female students. As most of the effects of expectancies were mediated by motives, drinking motives appear to be a promising factor for interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Imbalance p values for baseline covariates in randomized controlled trials: a last resort for the use of p values? A pro and contra debate.

    PubMed

    Stang, Andreas; Baethge, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are usually accompanied by a table that compares covariates between the study groups at baseline. Sometimes, the investigators report p values for imbalanced covariates. The aim of this debate is to illustrate the pro and contra of the use of these p values in RCTs. Low p values can be a sign of biased or fraudulent randomization and can be used as a warning sign. They can be considered as a screening tool with low positive-predictive value. Low p values should prompt us to ask for the reasons and for potential consequences, especially in combination with hints of methodological problems. A fair randomization produces the expectation that the distribution of p values follows a flat distribution. It does not produce an expectation related to a single p value. The distribution of p values in RCTs can be influenced by the correlation among covariates, differential misclassification or differential mismeasurement of baseline covariates. Given only a small number of reported p values in the reports of RCTs, judging whether the realized p value distribution is, indeed, a flat distribution becomes difficult. If p values ≤0.005 or ≥0.995 were used as a sign of alarm, the false-positive rate would be 5.0% if randomization was done correctly, and five p values per RCT were reported. Use of a low p value as a warning sign that randomization is potentially biased can be considered a vague heuristic. The authors of this debate are obviously more or less enthusiastic with this heuristic and differ in the consequences they propose.

  14. FIEFDom: A Transparent Domain Boundary Recognition System using a Fuzzy Mean Operator

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-12-04

    to search for matching fragments by running the PSI-BLAST program a second time. During this step, the expectation value threshold ( e -value) is set at...statistical significance (or low e -value), and therefore have low scores. Finally, the domain boundaries (if any) are predicted using the scored...neighbor (match) is weighted by its e -value, the relative contribution of each neighbor is apparent. This is contrary to black-box models in which the

  15. Fair market value: taking a proactive approach.

    PubMed

    Romero, Richard A

    2008-04-01

    A valuation report assessing the fair market value of a contractual arrangement should include: A description of the company, entity, or circumstance being valued. Analysis of general economic conditions that are expected to affect the enterprise. Evaluation of economic conditions in the medical services industry. Explanation of the various valuation approaches that were considered. Documentation of key underlying assumptions, including revenue and expense projections, projected profit, and ROI.

  16. Using Adolescent Fiction That Deals with Current Problems and Lifestyles to Explore Contemporary Values.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartz, Sheila

    This paper argues that a value structure must be developed and taught in the schools. The values and principles contained in the Humanistic Manifesto II are examined in the context of current adolescent literature. Discussed are such books as "It's Not What You Expect" and "Mom, The Wolfman and Me" by Norma Klein; "First Person Singular" by Vida…

  17. Religious Values in Environmental Conservation of Traditional Society in Wakatobi Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Udu, Sumiman

    2018-05-01

    Wakatobi is one of the Bharata that belongs to the governance system of Buton Sultanate. Therefore, as an ex-Islamic kingdom, certainly, Buton has various local wisdom in the life its society. One of the local wisdom can be seen in the system of their environmental conservation. This study made use of ethnographic approach; so, the researcher would like to expect that society might access multiple information related to the values that had become the foundation of environmental conservation in Wakatobi through this study. With this approach, the researcher would also like to expect that he gathered the data regarding how the society of Wakatobi viewed the Islamic values in their environmental conservation. The results of the study show that the biosphere heritage in Wakatobi land has been a genuine artwork by the traditional society of Wakatobi, which has been based on the Islamic values. Some of these values are internalized through kangkilo doctrine that includes: (1) kangkiloawalu (early holiness); and (2) kangkiloakhiri (final holiness). These values then have implications for their actions toward the environment. Several conservation concepts that have been based on these Islamic values can be seen in the forest, the kaindea, the motika, the menani (Napoleon) fish, the environmental management, and the shell (rondora, untu, watu). Also, the values of rahmatan lil alamin can also be found in the prayers that these traditional society utter when they are planting a tree.

  18. A consumption value-gap analysis for sustainable consumption.

    PubMed

    Biswas, Aindrila

    2017-03-01

    Recent studies on consumption behavior have depicted environmental apprehension resulting from across wide consumer segments. However, this has not been widely reflected upon the growth in the market shares for green or environment-friendly products mostly because gaps exist between consumers' expectations and perceptions for those products. Previous studies have highlighted the impact of perceived value on potential demand, consumer satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The necessity to understand the effects of gaps in expected and perceived values on consumers' behavioral intention and potential demand for green products cannot be undermined as it shapes the consumers' inclination to repeated purchase and consumption and thus foster potential market demand. Pertaining to this reason, the study aims to adopt a consumption value-gap model based on the theory of consumption values to assess their impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand of green products. Consumption value refers to the level of fulfillment of consumer needs by assessment of net utility derived after effective comparison between the benefits (financial or emotional) and the gives (money, time, or energy). The larger the gaps the higher will be the adversarial impact on behavioral intentions. A structural equation modeling was applied to assess data collected through questionnaire survey. The results indicate that functional value-gap and environmental value-gap has the most adversarial impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand for green products.

  19. Better Informing Decision Making with Multiple Outcomes Cost-Effectiveness Analysis under Uncertainty in Cost-Disutility Space

    PubMed Central

    McCaffrey, Nikki; Agar, Meera; Harlum, Janeane; Karnon, Jonathon; Currow, David; Eckermann, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Comparing multiple, diverse outcomes with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is important, yet challenging in areas like palliative care where domains are unamenable to integration with survival. Generic multi-attribute utility values exclude important domains and non-health outcomes, while partial analyses—where outcomes are considered separately, with their joint relationship under uncertainty ignored—lead to incorrect inference regarding preferred strategies. Objective The objective of this paper is to consider whether such decision making can be better informed with alternative presentation and summary measures, extending methods previously shown to have advantages in multiple strategy comparison. Methods Multiple outcomes CEA of a home-based palliative care model (PEACH) relative to usual care is undertaken in cost disutility (CDU) space and compared with analysis on the cost-effectiveness plane. Summary measures developed for comparing strategies across potential threshold values for multiple outcomes include: expected net loss (ENL) planes quantifying differences in expected net benefit; the ENL contour identifying preferred strategies minimising ENL and their expected value of perfect information; and cost-effectiveness acceptability planes showing probability of strategies minimising ENL. Results Conventional analysis suggests PEACH is cost-effective when the threshold value per additional day at home ( 1) exceeds $1,068 or dominated by usual care when only the proportion of home deaths is considered. In contrast, neither alternative dominate in CDU space where cost and outcomes are jointly considered, with the optimal strategy depending on threshold values. For example, PEACH minimises ENL when 1=$2,000 and 2=$2,000 (threshold value for dying at home), with a 51.6% chance of PEACH being cost-effective. Conclusion Comparison in CDU space and associated summary measures have distinct advantages to multiple domain comparisons, aiding transparent and robust joint comparison of costs and multiple effects under uncertainty across potential threshold values for effect, better informing net benefit assessment and related reimbursement and research decisions. PMID:25751629

  20. Polytomous Differential Item Functioning and Violations of Ordering of the Expected Latent Trait by the Raw Score

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeMars, Christine E.

    2008-01-01

    The graded response (GR) and generalized partial credit (GPC) models do not imply that examinees ordered by raw observed score will necessarily be ordered on the expected value of the latent trait (OEL). Factors were manipulated to assess whether increased violations of OEL also produced increased Type I error rates in differential item…

  1. Integrating spread dynamics and economics of timber production to manage Chinese Tallow invasions in southern U.S

    Treesearch

    Hsiao-Hsuan Wang; William E. Grant; Jianbang Gan; William E. Rogers; Todd M. Swannack; Tomasz E. Koralewski; James H. Miller; John W. Taylor

    2012-01-01

    Economic costs associated with the invasion of nonnative species are of global concern. We estimated expected costs of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera (L.) Small) invasions related to timber production in southern U.S. forestlands under different management strategies. Expected costs were confined to the value of timber production losses plus costs for search and...

  2. Standing Up for the Victim, Siding with the Bully or Standing By? Bystander Responses in Bullying Situations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Poyhonen, Virpi; Juvonen, Jaana; Salmivalli, Christina

    2012-01-01

    In this study we examined children's self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and outcome values in relation to bystander responses in bullying situations. We proposed that beyond the effect of self-efficacy, the decision to defend the victim of bullying vs. remain passive vs. reinforce the bully depends on outcomes children expect from defending, and…

  3. Male Student-Athlete Perceptions of University Academic Staff Expectations: A Qualitative Analysis of Perceptions, Value and Academic Motivation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Verbeck, Teresa A.

    2010-01-01

    Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 male collegiate student-athletes in a revenue-generating sport in an effort to better inform current academic support practitioners how to best serve this population. The inquiry focused on student-athlete perceptions of two areas: (1) perceptions regarding the expectations academic personnel have…

  4. The next Generation at Work--Business Students' Views, Values and Job Search Strategy: Implications for Universities and Employers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ng, Eddy S. W.; Burke, Ronald J.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to explore the views, career expectations, and job search behaviours among a sample of business students. It also aims to examine the role of campus career services in shaping students' careers and how cooperative education influences their expectations and aspirations. Design/methodology/approach: A field…

  5. Analysis of the Seismic Performance of Isolated Buildings according to Life-Cycle Cost

    PubMed Central

    Dang, Yu; Han, Jian-ping; Li, Yong-tao

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an indicator of seismic performance based on life-cycle cost of a building. It is expressed as a ratio of lifetime damage loss to life-cycle cost and determines the seismic performance of isolated buildings. Major factors are considered, including uncertainty in hazard demand and structural capacity, initial costs, and expected loss during earthquakes. Thus, a high indicator value indicates poor building seismic performance. Moreover, random vibration analysis is conducted to measure structural reliability and evaluate the expected loss and life-cycle cost of isolated buildings. The expected loss of an actual, seven-story isolated hospital building is only 37% of that of a fixed-base building. Furthermore, the indicator of the structural seismic performance of the isolated building is much lower in value than that of the structural seismic performance of the fixed-base building. Therefore, isolated buildings are safer and less risky than fixed-base buildings. The indicator based on life-cycle cost assists owners and engineers in making investment decisions in consideration of structural design, construction, and expected loss. It also helps optimize the balance between building reliability and building investment. PMID:25653677

  6. Analysis of the seismic performance of isolated buildings according to life-cycle cost.

    PubMed

    Dang, Yu; Han, Jian-Ping; Li, Yong-Tao

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an indicator of seismic performance based on life-cycle cost of a building. It is expressed as a ratio of lifetime damage loss to life-cycle cost and determines the seismic performance of isolated buildings. Major factors are considered, including uncertainty in hazard demand and structural capacity, initial costs, and expected loss during earthquakes. Thus, a high indicator value indicates poor building seismic performance. Moreover, random vibration analysis is conducted to measure structural reliability and evaluate the expected loss and life-cycle cost of isolated buildings. The expected loss of an actual, seven-story isolated hospital building is only 37% of that of a fixed-base building. Furthermore, the indicator of the structural seismic performance of the isolated building is much lower in value than that of the structural seismic performance of the fixed-base building. Therefore, isolated buildings are safer and less risky than fixed-base buildings. The indicator based on life-cycle cost assists owners and engineers in making investment decisions in consideration of structural design, construction, and expected loss. It also helps optimize the balance between building reliability and building investment.

  7. Coordinating bracket torque and incisor inclination : Part 3: Validity of bracket torque values in achieving norm inclinations.

    PubMed

    Zimmer, Bernd; Sino, Hiba

    2018-03-19

    To analyze common values of bracket torque (Andrews, Roth, MBT, Ricketts) for their validity in achieving incisor inclinations that are considered normal by different cephalometric standards. Using the equations developed in part 1 (eU1 (BOP) = 90° - BT (U1) - TCA (U1) + α 1 - α 2 and eL1 (BOP) = 90° - BT (L1) - TCA (L1) + β 1 - β 2 ) (abbreviations see part 1) and the mean values (± SD) obtained as statistical measures in parts 1 and 2 of the study (α 1 and β 1 [1.7° ± 0.7°], α 2 [3.6° ± 0.3°], β 2 [3.2° ± 0.4°], TCA (U1) [24.6° ± 3.6°] and TCA (L1) [22.9° ± 4.3°]) expected (= theoretically anticipated) values were calculated for upper and lower incisors (U1 and L1) and compared to targeted (= cephalometric norm) values. For U1, there was no overlapping between the ranges of expected and targeted values, as the lowest targeted value of (58.3°; Ricketts) was higher than the highest expected value (56.5°; Andrews) relative to the bisected occlusal plane (BOP). Thus all of these torque systems will aim for flatter inclinations than prescribed by any of the norm values. Depending on target values, the various bracket systems fell short by 1.8-5.5° (Andrews), 6.8-10.5° (Roth), 11.8-15.5° (MBT), or 16.8-20.5° (Ricketts). For L1, there was good agreement of the MBT system with the Ricketts and Björk target values (Δ0.1° and Δ-0.8°, respectively), and both the Roth and Ricketts systems came close to the Bergen target value (both Δ2.3°). Depending on target values, the ranges of deviation for L1 were 6.3-13.2° for Andrews (Class II prescription), 2.3°-9.2° for Roth, -3.7 to -3.2° for MBT, and 2.3-9.2° for Ricketts. Common values of upper incisor bracket torque do not have acceptable validity in achieving normal incisor inclinations. A careful selection of lower bracket torque may provide satisfactory matching with some of the targeted norm values.

  8. Phylogenetic diversity, functional trait diversity and extinction: avoiding tipping points and worst-case losses

    PubMed Central

    Faith, Daniel P.

    2015-01-01

    The phylogenetic diversity measure, (‘PD’), measures the relative feature diversity of different subsets of taxa from a phylogeny. At the level of feature diversity, PD supports the broad goal of biodiversity conservation to maintain living variation and option values. PD calculations at the level of lineages and features include those integrating probabilities of extinction, providing estimates of expected PD. This approach has known advantages over the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) methods. Expected PD methods also have limitations. An alternative notion of expected diversity, expected functional trait diversity, relies on an alternative non-phylogenetic model and allows inferences of diversity at the level of functional traits. Expected PD also faces challenges in helping to address phylogenetic tipping points and worst-case PD losses. Expected PD may not choose conservation options that best avoid worst-case losses of long branches from the tree of life. We can expand the range of useful calculations based on expected PD, including methods for identifying phylogenetic key biodiversity areas. PMID:25561672

  9. Communicating asset risk: how name recognition and the format of historic volatility information affect risk perception and investment decisions.

    PubMed

    Weber, Elke U; Siebenmorgen, Niklas; Weber, Martin

    2005-06-01

    An experiment examined how the type and presentation format of information about investment options affected investors' expectations about asset risk, returns, and volatility and how these expectations related to asset choice. Respondents were provided with the names of 16 domestic and foreign investment options, with 10-year historical return information for these options, or with both. Historical returns were presented either as a bar graph of returns per year or as a continuous density distribution. Provision of asset names allowed for the investigation of the mechanisms underlying the home bias in investment choice and other asset familiarity effects. Respondents provided their expectations of future returns, volatility, and expected risk, and indicated the options they would choose to invest in. Expected returns closely resembled historical expected values. Risk and volatility perceptions both varied significantly as a function of the type and format of information, but in different ways. Expected returns and perceived risk, not predicted volatility, predicted portfolio decisions.

  10. When theory and biology differ: The relationship between reward prediction errors and expectancy.

    PubMed

    Williams, Chad C; Hassall, Cameron D; Trska, Robert; Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E

    2017-10-01

    Comparisons between expectations and outcomes are critical for learning. Termed prediction errors, the violations of expectancy that occur when outcomes differ from expectations are used to modify value and shape behaviour. In the present study, we examined how a wide range of expectancy violations impacted neural signals associated with feedback processing. Participants performed a time estimation task in which they had to guess the duration of one second while their electroencephalogram was recorded. In a key manipulation, we varied task difficulty across the experiment to create a range of different feedback expectancies - reward feedback was either very expected, expected, 50/50, unexpected, or very unexpected. As predicted, the amplitude of the reward positivity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with feedback processing, scaled inversely with expectancy (e.g., unexpected feedback yielded a larger reward positivity than expected feedback). Interestingly, the scaling of the reward positivity to outcome expectancy was not linear as would be predicted by some theoretical models. Specifically, we found that the amplitude of the reward positivity was about equivalent for very expected and expected feedback, and for very unexpected and unexpected feedback. As such, our results demonstrate a sigmoidal relationship between reward expectancy and the amplitude of the reward positivity, with interesting implications for theories of reinforcement learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The Influence of Values and Policy Vocabularies on Understandings of Leadership Effectiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carpenter, Bradley W.; Diem, Sarah; Young, Michelle D.

    2014-01-01

    During the past two decades, shifting discourses have significantly altered professional expectations for educational leaders. Driven by a globalized reconfiguration of the values defining educational purpose, definitions of effective leadership, processes for evaluating them, and the very boundaries of educational policy have narrowed and…

  12. Discovering Linear Equations in Explicit Tables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Lauren

    2017-01-01

    When teaching algebra concepts to middle school students, the author often hears questions that echo her own past confusion as a young student learning to write linear equations using data tables that show only input and output values. Students, expected to synthesize the relationship between these values in symbolic representation, grow…

  13. Academic Procrastination in Linking Motivation and Achievement-Related Behaviours: A Perspective of Expectancy-Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Fan; Fan, Weihua

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to investigate the relationships among college students' achievement motivation (subjective task value and academic self-efficacy), academic procrastination (delay and missing deadlines) and achievement-related behaviours (effort and persistence). More specifically, the study investigated the mediating role…

  14. 12 CFR 611.1280 - Dissenting stockholders' rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... include a form for stockholders to send back to you, stating their intention to exercise dissenters... whether it will require stockholders to be borrowers. (2) A description of the current book and par value per share of each class of equities, and the expected book and market value of the stockholder's...

  15. Capacity Value: Evaluation of WECC Rule of Thumb; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Milligan, Michael; Ibanez, Eduardo

    2015-06-09

    This presentation compares loss of load expectation and wind and solar capacity values to the rules of thumb used in the Western Interconnection planning and provides alternative recommendations to the modeling efforts of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council's Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee.

  16. Democracy, Neutrality, and Value Demonstration in the Age of Austerity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jaeger, Paul T.; Gorham, Ursula; Bertot, John Carlo; Sarin, Lindsay C.

    2013-01-01

    This Libraries and Policy essay explores the interrelationships between the public library goals of supporting democracy and remaining an apolitical institution and the expectations for demonstration of value and economic contribution at a time in which public discourse emphasizes austerity from public institutions. Libraries' positions on…

  17. Journalists' and Public Relations Practitioners' News Values: Perceptions and Cross-Perceptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sallot, Lynne M.; Steinfatt, Thomas M.; Salwen, Michael B.

    1998-01-01

    Contributes to research on the relationship between journalism and public relations by surveying journalists and public relations practitioners. Shows that the two groups share generally similar news values, but that journalists were largely unaware of this similarity. Finds that practitioners, expecting contributions of social good by public…

  18. Calibration Software for Use with Jurassicprok

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chapin, Elaine; Hensley, Scott; Siqueira, Paul

    2004-01-01

    The Jurassicprok Interferometric Calibration Software (also called "Calibration Processor" or simply "CP") estimates the calibration parameters of an airborne synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) system, the raw measurement data of which are processed by the Jurassicprok software described in the preceding article. Calibration parameters estimated by CP include time delays, baseline offsets, phase screens, and radiometric offsets. CP examines raw radar-pulse data, single-look complex image data, and digital elevation map data. For each type of data, CP compares the actual values with values expected on the basis of ground-truth data. CP then converts the differences between the actual and expected values into updates for the calibration parameters in an interferometric calibration file (ICF) and a radiometric calibration file (RCF) for the particular SAR system. The updated ICF and RCF are used as inputs to both Jurassicprok and to the companion Motion Measurement Processor software (described in the following article) for use in generating calibrated digital elevation maps.

  19. Load controller and method to enhance effective capacity of a photovoltaic power supply using a dynamically determined expected peak loading

    DOEpatents

    Perez, Richard

    2005-05-03

    A load controller and method are provided for maximizing effective capacity of a non-controllable, renewable power supply coupled to a variable electrical load also coupled to a conventional power grid. Effective capacity is enhanced by monitoring power output of the renewable supply and loading, and comparing the loading against the power output and a load adjustment threshold determined from an expected peak loading. A value for a load adjustment parameter is calculated by subtracting the renewable supply output and the load adjustment parameter from the current load. This value is then employed to control the variable load in an amount proportional to the value of the load control parameter when the parameter is within a predefined range. By so controlling the load, the effective capacity of the non-controllable, renewable power supply is increased without any attempt at operational feedback control of the renewable supply.

  20. Evaluating quality in endoscopy.

    PubMed

    Pohl, Heiko

    2017-06-01

    Despite an increasing number of publications and suggested quality measures, evaluating quality in endoscopy remains a challenge. Most quality measures are process measures and lack evidence for an association with clinically important outcomes. Furthermore, most measure focus on procedural aspects. Patients' expectations, cultural values, and work setting also affect quality, but are less often considered. The aim of this article is to broaden the view on quality assessment. Here, quality is viewed from four perspectives: an individual patient perspective, which considers expectations and personal values; a cultural perspective, which encompasses cultural values and norms; an individual care perspective, which includes how an individual patient is being treated; and a societal perspective, which sets the stage for provided care. The article concludes with a proposal to consider bundled composite measures as a path to a simple yet comprehensive approach to assessing and measuring quality in endoscopy. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

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