The Decision to Engage Cognitive Control Is Driven by Expected Reward-Value: Neural and Behavioral Evidence

PubMed Central

Dixon, Matthew L.; Christoff, Kalina

2012-01-01

Cognitive control is a fundamental skill reflecting the active use of task-rules to guide behavior and suppress inappropriate automatic responses. Prior work has traditionally used paradigms in which subjects are told when to engage cognitive control. Thus, surprisingly little is known about the factors that influence individuals' initial decision of whether or not to act in a reflective, rule-based manner. To examine this, we took three classic cognitive control tasks (Stroop, Wisconsin Card Sorting Task, Go/No-Go task) and created novel ‘free-choice’ versions in which human subjects were free to select an automatic, pre-potent action, or an action requiring rule-based cognitive control, and earned varying amounts of money based on their choices. Our findings demonstrated that subjects' decision to engage cognitive control was driven by an explicit representation of monetary rewards expected to be obtained from rule-use. Subjects rarely engaged cognitive control when the expected outcome was of equal or lesser value as compared to the value of the automatic response, but frequently engaged cognitive control when it was expected to yield a larger monetary outcome. Additionally, we exploited fMRI-adaptation to show that the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) represents associations between rules and expected reward outcomes. Together, these findings suggest that individuals are more likely to act in a reflective, rule-based manner when they expect that it will result in a desired outcome. Thus, choosing to exert cognitive control is not simply a matter of reason and willpower, but rather, conforms to standard mechanisms of value-based decision making. Finally, in contrast to current models of LPFC function, our results suggest that the LPFC plays a direct role in representing motivational incentives. PMID:23284730

Reason and reaction: the utility of a dual-focus, dual-processing perspective on promotion and prevention of adolescent health risk behaviour.

PubMed

Gibbons, Frederick X; Houlihan, Amy E; Gerrard, Meg

2009-05-01

A brief overview of theories of health behaviour that are based on the expectancy-value perspective is presented. This approach maintains that health behaviours are the result of a deliberative decision-making process that involves consideration of behavioural options along with anticipated outcomes associated with those options. It is argued that this perspective is effective at explaining and predicting many types of health behaviour, including health-promoting actions (e.g. UV protection, condom use, smoking cessation), but less effective at predicting risky health behaviours, such as unprotected, casual sex, drunk driving or binge drinking. These are behaviours that are less reasoned or premeditated - especially among adolescents. An argument is made for incorporating elements of dual-processing theories in an effort to improve the 'utility' of these models. Specifically, it is suggested that adolescent health behaviour involves both analytic and heuristic processing. Both types of processing are incorporated in the prototype-willingness (prototype) model, which is described in some detail. Studies of health behaviour based on the expectancy-value perspective (e.g. theory of reasoned action) are reviewed, along with studies based on the prototype model. These two sets of studies together suggest that the dual-processing perspective, in general, and the prototype model, in particular, add to the predictive validity of expectancy-value models for predicting adolescent health behaviour. Research and interventions that incorporate elements of dual-processing and elements of expectancy-value are more effective at explaining and changing adolescent health behaviour than are those based on expectancy-value theories alone.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Özdemir, Semra Bayat; Demiralp, Metin

The determination of the energy states is highly studied issue in the quantum mechanics. Based on expectation values dynamics, energy states can be observed. But conditions and calculations vary depending on the created system. In this work, a symmetric exponential anharmonic oscillator is considered and development of a recursive approximation method is studied to find its ground energy state. The use of majorant values facilitates the approximate calculation of expectation values.

Value and probability coding in a feedback-based learning task utilizing food rewards.

PubMed

Tricomi, Elizabeth; Lempert, Karolina M

2015-01-01

For the consequences of our actions to guide behavior, the brain must represent different types of outcome-related information. For example, an outcome can be construed as negative because an expected reward was not delivered or because an outcome of low value was delivered. Thus behavioral consequences can differ in terms of the information they provide about outcome probability and value. We investigated the role of the striatum in processing probability-based and value-based negative feedback by training participants to associate cues with food rewards and then employing a selective satiety procedure to devalue one food outcome. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined brain activity related to receipt of expected rewards, receipt of devalued outcomes, omission of expected rewards, omission of devalued outcomes, and expected omissions of an outcome. Nucleus accumbens activation was greater for rewarding outcomes than devalued outcomes, but activity in this region did not correlate with the probability of reward receipt. Activation of the right caudate and putamen, however, was largest in response to rewarding outcomes relative to expected omissions of reward. The dorsal striatum (caudate and putamen) at the time of feedback also showed a parametric increase correlating with the trialwise probability of reward receipt. Our results suggest that the ventral striatum is sensitive to the motivational relevance, or subjective value, of the outcome, while the dorsal striatum codes for a more complex signal that incorporates reward probability. Value and probability information may be integrated in the dorsal striatum, to facilitate action planning and allocation of effort. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play.

PubMed

Kempton, Thomas; Kennedy, Nicholas; Coutts, Aaron J

2016-01-01

This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010-2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition's goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team's own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.

Valuing Trial Designs from a Pharmaceutical Perspective Using Value-Based Pricing.

PubMed

Breeze, Penny; Brennan, Alan

2015-11-01

Our aim was to adapt the traditional framework for expected net benefit of sampling (ENBS) to be more compatible with drug development trials from the pharmaceutical perspective. We modify the traditional framework for conducting ENBS and assume that the price of the drug is conditional on the trial outcomes. We use a value-based pricing (VBP) criterion to determine price conditional on trial data using Bayesian updating of cost-effectiveness (CE) model parameters. We assume that there is a threshold price below which the company would not market the new intervention. We present a case study in which a phase III trial sample size and trial duration are varied. For each trial design, we sampled 10,000 trial outcomes and estimated VBP using a CE model. The expected commercial net benefit is calculated as the expected profits minus the trial costs. A clinical trial with shorter follow-up, and larger sample size, generated the greatest expected commercial net benefit. Increasing the duration of follow-up had a modest impact on profit forecasts. Expected net benefit of sampling can be adapted to value clinical trials in the pharmaceutical industry to optimise the expected commercial net benefit. However, the analyses can be very time consuming for complex CE models. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Perturbative test of exact vacuum expectation values of local fields in affine Toda theories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, Changrim; Baseilhac, P.; Kim, Chanju

Vacuum expectation values of local fields for all dual pairs of nonsimply laced affine Toda field theories recently proposed are checked against perturbative analysis. The computations based on Feynman diagram expansion are performed up to the two-loop level. We obtain, good agreement.

VA-Index: Quantifying Assortativity Patterns in Networks with Multidimensional Nodal Attributes (Open Access)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-27

bias of the estimator U, bias(U), the difference between this estimator’s expected value and the true value of the parameter being estimated, i.e...biasðUÞ ¼ EðU yÞ ¼ EðUÞ y ð9Þ Based on the above definition, an unbiased estimator is one whose expected value is equal to the true value being...equal to 0.94 (p- value < 0.05), if we con- sider the pure ER network model as our baseline, and 0.31 (p- value < 0.05), if we control for the home

Complementary contributions of basolateral amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex to value learning under uncertainty

PubMed Central

Stolyarova, Alexandra; Izquierdo, Alicia

2017-01-01

We make choices based on the values of expected outcomes, informed by previous experience in similar settings. When the outcomes of our decisions consistently violate expectations, new learning is needed to maximize rewards. Yet not every surprising event indicates a meaningful change in the environment. Even when conditions are stable overall, outcomes of a single experience can still be unpredictable due to small fluctuations (i.e., expected uncertainty) in reward or costs. In the present work, we investigate causal contributions of the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) in rats to learning under expected outcome uncertainty in a novel delay-based task that incorporates both predictable fluctuations and directional shifts in outcome values. We demonstrate that OFC is required to accurately represent the distribution of wait times to stabilize choice preferences despite trial-by-trial fluctuations in outcomes, whereas BLA is necessary for the facilitation of learning in response to surprising events. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.27483.001 PMID:28682238

Understanding Female Sport Attrition in a Stereotypical Male Sport within the Framework of Eccles's Expectancy-Value Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guillet, Emma; Sarrazin, Philippe; Fontayne, Paul; Brustad, Robert J.

2006-01-01

An empirical research study based upon the expectancy-value model of Eccles and colleagues (1983) investigated the effect of gender-role orientations on psychological dimensions of female athletes' sport participation and the likelihood of their continued participation in a stereotypical masculine activity. The model (Eccles et al., 1983) posits…

The Development of a Mathematics Self-Report Inventory for Turkish Elementary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akin, Ayça; Güzeller, Cem Oktay; Evcan, Sinem Sezer

2016-01-01

The purpose of the current study is to develop a mathematics self-report inventory (MSRI) to measure Turkish elementary students' mathematics expectancy beliefs and task values based on the expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation. In Study-1 (n = 1,315), exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and reliability analysis are used to evaluate the…

Predicting who will major in a science discipline: Expectancy-value theory as part of an ecological model for studying academic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullins, Ellen S.; Hernandez, Delia; Fuller, Carol; Shiro Tashiro, Jay

Research on factors that shape recruitment and retention in undergraduate science majors currently is highly fragmented and in need of an integrative research framework. Such a framework should incorporate analyses of the various levels of organization that characterize academic communities (i.e., the broad institutional level, the departmental level, and the student level), and should also provide ways to study the interactions occurring within and between these structural levels. We propose that academic communities are analogous to ecosystems, and that the research paradigms of modern community ecology can provide the necessary framework, as well as new and innovative approaches to a very complex area. This article also presents the results of a pilot study that demonstrates the promise of this approach at the student level. We administered a questionnaire based on expectancy-value theory to undergraduates enrolled in introductory biology courses. Itself an integrative approach, expectancy-value theory views achievement-related behavior as a joint function of the person's expectancy of success in the behavior and the subjective value placed on such success. Our results indicated: (a) significant gender differences in the underlying factor structures of expectations and values related to the discipline of biology, (b) expectancy-value factors significantly distinguished biology majors from nonmajors, and (c) expectancy-value factors significantly predicted students' intent to enroll in future biology courses. We explore the expectancy-value framework as an operationally integrative framework in our ecological model for studying academic communities, especially in the context of assessing the underrepresentation of women and minorities in the sciences. Future research directions as well as practical implications are also discussed.

Children's perceived cost for exercise: application of an expectancy-value paradigm.

PubMed

Chiang, Evelyn S; Byrd, Sandra P; Molin, Ashley J

2011-04-01

Expectancy-value models of motivation have been applied to understanding children's choices in areas such as academics and sports. Here, an expectancy-value paradigm is applied to exercising (defined as engaging in physical activity). The notion of perceived cost is highlighted in particular. Two hundred twenty children in third, fourth, and fifth grades were surveyed on their competence beliefs, perceived importance, interest, and perceived cost of being physically active. Results indicated that perceived cost is empirically distinct from competence beliefs and other types of value, that perceived cost is marginally related to children's self-reported level of physical activity, and children's beliefs and other values are related to their self-reported level of physical activity. Children's perceptions of cost vary depending on grade and gender. Interventions based on these findings are proposed.

Decomposing cross-country differences in quality adjusted life expectancy: the impact of value sets.

PubMed

Heijink, Richard; van Baal, Pieter; Oppe, Mark; Koolman, Xander; Westert, Gert

2011-06-23

The validity, reliability and cross-country comparability of summary measures of population health (SMPH) have been persistently debated. In this debate, the measurement and valuation of nonfatal health outcomes have been defined as key issues. Our goal was to quantify and decompose international differences in health expectancy based on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We focused on the impact of value set choice on cross-country variation. We calculated Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE) at age 20 for 15 countries in which EQ-5D population surveys had been conducted. We applied the Sullivan approach to combine the EQ-5D based HRQoL data with life tables from the Human Mortality Database. Mean HRQoL by country-gender-age was estimated using a parametric model. We used nonparametric bootstrap techniques to compute confidence intervals. QALE was then compared across the six country-specific time trade-off value sets that were available. Finally, three counterfactual estimates were generated in order to assess the contribution of mortality, health states and health-state values to cross-country differences in QALE. QALE at age 20 ranged from 33 years in Armenia to almost 61 years in Japan, using the UK value set. The value sets of the other five countries generated different estimates, up to seven years higher. The relative impact of choosing a different value set differed across country-gender strata between 2% and 20%. In 50% of the country-gender strata the ranking changed by two or more positions across value sets. The decomposition demonstrated a varying impact of health states, health-state values, and mortality on QALE differences across countries. The choice of the value set in SMPH may seriously affect cross-country comparisons of health expectancy, even across populations of similar levels of wealth and education. In our opinion, it is essential to get more insight into the drivers of differences in health-state values across populations. This will enhance the usefulness of health-expectancy measures.

When Expectations Clash: Vocational Education at the Intersection of Workplace and School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tyson, Ruhi

2016-01-01

Next to highly regarded varieties of apprenticeship-based vocational education there are, in many countries, forms of mainly school-based VET (vocational education and training) that suffer from a clash of expectations between schools and workplaces as sites of vocational education. School-based VET is viewed as of lesser value compared to work…

Using the Expectancy Value Model of Motivation to Understand the Relationship between Student Attitudes and Achievement in Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hood, Michelle; Creed, Peter A.; Neumann, David L.

2012-01-01

We tested a model of the relationship between attitudes toward statistics and achievement based on Eccles' Expectancy Value Model (1983). Participants (n = 149; 83% female) were second-year Australian university students in a psychology statistics course (mean age = 23.36 years, SD = 7.94 years). We obtained demographic details, past performance,…

Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment

PubMed Central

Bor, Jacob; Herbst, Abraham J; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

2013-01-01

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years – an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors. PMID:23430655

Analytical probabilistic modeling of RBE-weighted dose for ion therapy.

PubMed

Wieser, H P; Hennig, P; Wahl, N; Bangert, M

2017-11-10

Particle therapy is especially prone to uncertainties. This issue is usually addressed with uncertainty quantification and minimization techniques based on scenario sampling. For proton therapy, however, it was recently shown that it is also possible to use closed-form computations based on analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) for this purpose. APM yields unique features compared to sampling-based approaches, motivating further research in this context. This paper demonstrates the application of APM for intensity-modulated carbon ion therapy to quantify the influence of setup and range uncertainties on the RBE-weighted dose. In particular, we derive analytical forms for the nonlinear computations of the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose by propagating linearly correlated Gaussian input uncertainties through a pencil beam dose calculation algorithm. Both exact and approximation formulas are presented for the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose and are subsequently studied in-depth for a one-dimensional carbon ion spread-out Bragg peak. With V and B being the number of voxels and pencil beams, respectively, the proposed approximations induce only a marginal loss of accuracy while lowering the computational complexity from order [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] for the expectation value and from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] for the variance of the RBE-weighted dose. Moreover, we evaluated the approximated calculation of the expectation value and standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose in combination with a probabilistic effect-based optimization on three patient cases considering carbon ions as radiation modality against sampled references. The resulting global γ-pass rates (2 mm,2%) are [Formula: see text]99.15% for the expectation value and [Formula: see text]94.95% for the standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose, respectively. We applied the derived analytical model to carbon ion treatment planning, although the concept is in general applicable to other ion species considering a variable RBE.

Analytical probabilistic modeling of RBE-weighted dose for ion therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieser, H. P.; Hennig, P.; Wahl, N.; Bangert, M.

2017-12-01

Particle therapy is especially prone to uncertainties. This issue is usually addressed with uncertainty quantification and minimization techniques based on scenario sampling. For proton therapy, however, it was recently shown that it is also possible to use closed-form computations based on analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) for this purpose. APM yields unique features compared to sampling-based approaches, motivating further research in this context. This paper demonstrates the application of APM for intensity-modulated carbon ion therapy to quantify the influence of setup and range uncertainties on the RBE-weighted dose. In particular, we derive analytical forms for the nonlinear computations of the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose by propagating linearly correlated Gaussian input uncertainties through a pencil beam dose calculation algorithm. Both exact and approximation formulas are presented for the expectation value and variance of the RBE-weighted dose and are subsequently studied in-depth for a one-dimensional carbon ion spread-out Bragg peak. With V and B being the number of voxels and pencil beams, respectively, the proposed approximations induce only a marginal loss of accuracy while lowering the computational complexity from order O(V × B^2) to O(V × B) for the expectation value and from O(V × B^4) to O(V × B^2) for the variance of the RBE-weighted dose. Moreover, we evaluated the approximated calculation of the expectation value and standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose in combination with a probabilistic effect-based optimization on three patient cases considering carbon ions as radiation modality against sampled references. The resulting global γ-pass rates (2 mm,2%) are > 99.15% for the expectation value and > 94.95% for the standard deviation of the RBE-weighted dose, respectively. We applied the derived analytical model to carbon ion treatment planning, although the concept is in general applicable to other ion species considering a variable RBE.

Impaired Expected Value Computations Coupled With Overreliance on Stimulus-Response Learning in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Hernaus, Dennis; Gold, James M; Waltz, James A; Frank, Michael J

2018-04-03

While many have emphasized impaired reward prediction error signaling in schizophrenia, multiple studies suggest that some decision-making deficits may arise from overreliance on stimulus-response systems together with a compromised ability to represent expected value. Guided by computational frameworks, we formulated and tested two scenarios in which maladaptive representations of expected value should be most evident, thereby delineating conditions that may evoke decision-making impairments in schizophrenia. In a modified reinforcement learning paradigm, 42 medicated people with schizophrenia and 36 healthy volunteers learned to select the most frequently rewarded option in a 75-25 pair: once when presented with a more deterministic (90-10) pair and once when presented with a more probabilistic (60-40) pair. Novel and old combinations of choice options were presented in a subsequent transfer phase. Computational modeling was employed to elucidate contributions from stimulus-response systems (actor-critic) and expected value (Q-learning). People with schizophrenia showed robust performance impairments with increasing value difference between two competing options, which strongly correlated with decreased contributions from expected value-based learning (Q-learning). Moreover, a subtle yet consistent contextual choice bias for the probabilistic 75 option was present in people with schizophrenia, which could be accounted for by a context-dependent reward prediction error in the actor-critic. We provide evidence that decision-making impairments in schizophrenia increase monotonically with demands placed on expected value computations. A contextual choice bias is consistent with overreliance on stimulus-response learning, which may signify a deficit secondary to the maladaptive representation of expected value. These results shed new light on conditions under which decision-making impairments may arise. Copyright © 2018 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The "proactive" model of learning: Integrative framework for model-free and model-based reinforcement learning utilizing the associative learning-based proactive brain concept.

PubMed

Zsuga, Judit; Biro, Klara; Papp, Csaba; Tajti, Gabor; Gesztelyi, Rudolf

2016-02-01

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful concept underlying forms of associative learning governed by the use of a scalar reward signal, with learning taking place if expectations are violated. RL may be assessed using model-based and model-free approaches. Model-based reinforcement learning involves the amygdala, the hippocampus, and the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). The model-free system involves the pedunculopontine-tegmental nucleus (PPTgN), the ventral tegmental area (VTA) and the ventral striatum (VS). Based on the functional connectivity of VS, model-free and model based RL systems center on the VS that by integrating model-free signals (received as reward prediction error) and model-based reward related input computes value. Using the concept of reinforcement learning agent we propose that the VS serves as the value function component of the RL agent. Regarding the model utilized for model-based computations we turned to the proactive brain concept, which offers an ubiquitous function for the default network based on its great functional overlap with contextual associative areas. Hence, by means of the default network the brain continuously organizes its environment into context frames enabling the formulation of analogy-based association that are turned into predictions of what to expect. The OFC integrates reward-related information into context frames upon computing reward expectation by compiling stimulus-reward and context-reward information offered by the amygdala and hippocampus, respectively. Furthermore we suggest that the integration of model-based expectations regarding reward into the value signal is further supported by the efferent of the OFC that reach structures canonical for model-free learning (e.g., the PPTgN, VTA, and VS). (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Predictors of father-son communication about sexuality.

PubMed

Lehr, Sally T; Demi, Alice S; Dilorio, Colleen; Facteau, Jeffrey

2005-05-01

Examining the factors that influence adolescents' sexual behaviors is crucial for understanding why they often engage in risky sexual behaviors. Using social cognitive theory, we examined predictors of father-son communication about sexuality. Fathers (N=155) of adolescent sons completed a survey measuring 12 variables, including self-efficacy and outcome expectations. We found that (a) son's pubertal development, father's sex-based values, father's education; father's communication with his father, outcome expectations, and general communication accounted for 36% of the variance in information sharing communication and (b) son's pubertal development, outcome expectations, general communication, and father-son contact accounted for 20% of the variance in values sharing communication. Study findings can aid professionals in designing guidelines for programs to promote father-son general communication and sex-based communication.

Linear canonical transformations of coherent and squeezed states in the Wigner phase space. II - Quantitative analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, D.; Kim, Y. S.; Noz, Marilyn E.

1989-01-01

It is possible to calculate expectation values and transition probabilities from the Wigner phase-space distribution function. Based on the canonical transformation properties of the Wigner function, an algorithm is developed for calculating these quantities in quantum optics for coherent and squeezed states. It is shown that the expectation value of a dynamical variable can be written in terms of its vacuum expectation value of the canonically transformed variable. Parallel-axis theorems are established for the photon number and its variant. It is also shown that the transition probability between two squeezed states can be reduced to that of the transition from one squeezed state to vacuum.

Model-free and model-based reward prediction errors in EEG.

PubMed

Sambrook, Thomas D; Hardwick, Ben; Wills, Andy J; Goslin, Jeremy

2018-05-24

Learning theorists posit two reinforcement learning systems: model-free and model-based. Model-based learning incorporates knowledge about structure and contingencies in the world to assign candidate actions with an expected value. Model-free learning is ignorant of the world's structure; instead, actions hold a value based on prior reinforcement, with this value updated by expectancy violation in the form of a reward prediction error. Because they use such different learning mechanisms, it has been previously assumed that model-based and model-free learning are computationally dissociated in the brain. However, recent fMRI evidence suggests that the brain may compute reward prediction errors to both model-free and model-based estimates of value, signalling the possibility that these systems interact. Because of its poor temporal resolution, fMRI risks confounding reward prediction errors with other feedback-related neural activity. In the present study, EEG was used to show the presence of both model-based and model-free reward prediction errors and their place in a temporal sequence of events including state prediction errors and action value updates. This demonstration of model-based prediction errors questions a long-held assumption that model-free and model-based learning are dissociated in the brain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Covariate analysis of bivariate survival data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, L.E.

1992-01-01

The methods developed are used to analyze the effects of covariates on bivariate survival data when censoring and ties are present. The proposed method provides models for bivariate survival data that include differential covariate effects and censored observations. The proposed models are based on an extension of the univariate Buckley-James estimators which replace censored data points by their expected values, conditional on the censoring time and the covariates. For the bivariate situation, it is necessary to determine the expectation of the failure times for one component conditional on the failure or censoring time of the other component. Two different methodsmore » have been developed to estimate these expectations. In the semiparametric approach these expectations are determined from a modification of Burke's estimate of the bivariate empirical survival function. In the parametric approach censored data points are also replaced by their conditional expected values where the expected values are determined from a specified parametric distribution. The model estimation will be based on the revised data set, comprised of uncensored components and expected values for the censored components. The variance-covariance matrix for the estimated covariate parameters has also been derived for both the semiparametric and parametric methods. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey was analyzed by these methods. The two outcome variables are post-partum amenorrhea and breastfeeding; education and parity were used as the covariates. Both the covariate parameter estimates and the variance-covariance estimates for the semiparametric and parametric models will be compared. In addition, a multivariate test statistic was used in the semiparametric model to examine contrasts. The significance of the statistic was determined from a bootstrap distribution of the test statistic.« less

Intercultural Internet-Based Learning: Know Your Audience and What They Value

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bentley, Joanne P. H.; Tinney, Mari Vawn; Chia, Bing Howe

2004-01-01

As the internet-based learning (IBL) market becomes increasingly global, understanding differing educational values and cultural expectations could provide an important competitive edge for providers (universities, publishing houses, and corporate training entities). How each of person determines "good" or "quality" instruction…

Analysis of the Seismic Performance of Isolated Buildings according to Life-Cycle Cost

PubMed Central

Dang, Yu; Han, Jian-ping; Li, Yong-tao

2015-01-01

This paper proposes an indicator of seismic performance based on life-cycle cost of a building. It is expressed as a ratio of lifetime damage loss to life-cycle cost and determines the seismic performance of isolated buildings. Major factors are considered, including uncertainty in hazard demand and structural capacity, initial costs, and expected loss during earthquakes. Thus, a high indicator value indicates poor building seismic performance. Moreover, random vibration analysis is conducted to measure structural reliability and evaluate the expected loss and life-cycle cost of isolated buildings. The expected loss of an actual, seven-story isolated hospital building is only 37% of that of a fixed-base building. Furthermore, the indicator of the structural seismic performance of the isolated building is much lower in value than that of the structural seismic performance of the fixed-base building. Therefore, isolated buildings are safer and less risky than fixed-base buildings. The indicator based on life-cycle cost assists owners and engineers in making investment decisions in consideration of structural design, construction, and expected loss. It also helps optimize the balance between building reliability and building investment. PMID:25653677

Analysis of the seismic performance of isolated buildings according to life-cycle cost.

PubMed

Dang, Yu; Han, Jian-Ping; Li, Yong-Tao

2015-01-01

This paper proposes an indicator of seismic performance based on life-cycle cost of a building. It is expressed as a ratio of lifetime damage loss to life-cycle cost and determines the seismic performance of isolated buildings. Major factors are considered, including uncertainty in hazard demand and structural capacity, initial costs, and expected loss during earthquakes. Thus, a high indicator value indicates poor building seismic performance. Moreover, random vibration analysis is conducted to measure structural reliability and evaluate the expected loss and life-cycle cost of isolated buildings. The expected loss of an actual, seven-story isolated hospital building is only 37% of that of a fixed-base building. Furthermore, the indicator of the structural seismic performance of the isolated building is much lower in value than that of the structural seismic performance of the fixed-base building. Therefore, isolated buildings are safer and less risky than fixed-base buildings. The indicator based on life-cycle cost assists owners and engineers in making investment decisions in consideration of structural design, construction, and expected loss. It also helps optimize the balance between building reliability and building investment.

Creating an Agent Based Framework to Maximize Information Utility

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

information utility may be a qualitative description of the information, where one would expect the adjectives low value, fair value , high value. For...operations. Information in this category may have a fair value rating. Finally, many seemingly unrelated events, such as reports of snipers in buildings

Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs

PubMed Central

Doménech-Betoret, Fernando; Abellán-Roselló, Laura; Gómez-Artiga, Amparo

2017-01-01

Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy–achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy) played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy–achievement and efficacy–course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed. PMID:28769839

Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs.

PubMed

Doménech-Betoret, Fernando; Abellán-Roselló, Laura; Gómez-Artiga, Amparo

2017-01-01

Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy-achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy) played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy-achievement and efficacy-course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed.

Using expectancy-value theory to explore aspects of motivation and engagement in inquiry-based learning in primary mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

2017-03-01

Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and Wigfield 2002) provides a framework through which children's beliefs about their mathematical competency and their expectation of success are able to be examined and interpreted, alongside students' perceptions of task value. In this paper, Eccles and Wigfield's expectancy-value model has been adopted as a lens to examine a complete unit of mathematical inquiry as undertaken with a class of 9-10-year-old students. Data were sourced from a unit (˜10 lessons) based on geometry and geometrical reasoning. The units were videotaped in full, transcribed, and along with field notes and student work samples, subjected to theoretical coding using the dimensions of Eccles and Wigfield's model. The findings provide insight into aspects of IBL that may impact student motivation and engagement. The study is limited to a single unit; however, the results provide a depth of insight into IBL in practice while identifying features of IBL that may be instrumental in bringing about increased motivation and engagement of students in mathematics. Identifying potentially motivating aspects of IBL enable these to be integrated and more closely studied in IBL practises.

The Long-Term Effects of Early Parent Involvement and Parent Expectation in the USA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froiland, John Mark; Peterson, Aubrey; Davison, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Building on social-cognitive theory and the expectancy-value theory, this study indicated that early parent expectations for children’s post-secondary educational attainment have a stronger effect on 8th-grade achievement than home-based parental involvement. With a nationally representative sample of kindergarten students and their parents in the…

Assertiveness expectancies: how hard people push depends on the consequences they predict.

PubMed

Ames, Daniel R

2008-12-01

The present article seeks to explain varying levels of assertiveness in interpersonal conflict and negotiations with assertiveness expectancies, idiosyncratic predictions people make about the social and instrumental consequences of assertive behavior. This account complements motivation-based models of assertiveness and competitiveness, suggesting that individuals may possess the same social values (e.g., concern for relationships) but show dramatically different assertiveness due to different assumptions about behavioral consequences. Results clarify the form of assertiveness expectancies, namely that most people assume increasing assertiveness can yield positive social and instrumental benefits up to a point, beyond which benefits decline. However, people vary in how assertive this perceived optimal point is. These individual differences in expectancies are linked in 4 studies to assertiveness, including self-reported assertiveness, rated behavioral preferences in assorted interpersonal conflict scenarios, partner ratings of participants' behavior in a face-to-face dyadic negotiation, and work colleague ratings of participants' assertiveness in the workplace. In each case, the link between expectancies and behavior remained after controlling for values. The results suggest a place for expectancies alongside values in psychological models of interpersonal assertiveness.

Design, implementation, and first-year outcomes of a value-based drug formulary.

PubMed

Sullivan, Sean D; Yeung, Kai; Vogeler, Carol; Ramsey, Scott D; Wong, Edward; Murphy, Chad O; Danielson, Dan; Veenstra, David L; Garrison, Louis P; Burke, Wylie; Watkins, John B

2015-04-01

Value-based insurance design attempts to align drug copayment tier with value rather than cost. Previous implementations of value-based insurance design have lowered copayments for drugs indicated for select "high value" conditions and have found modest improvements in medication adherence. However, these implementations have generally not resulted in cost savings to the health plan, suggesting a need for increased copayments for "low value" drugs. Further, previous implementations have assigned equal copayment reductions to all drugs within a therapeutic area without assessing the value of individual drugs. Aligning the individual drug's copayment to its specific value may yield greater clinical and economic benefits. In 2010, Premera Blue Cross, a large not-for-profit health plan in the Pacific Northwest, implemented a value-based drug formulary (VBF) that explicitly uses cost-effectiveness analyses after safety and efficacy reviews to estimate the value of each individual drug. Concurrently, Premera increased copayments for existing tiers. To describe and evaluate the design, implementation, and first-year outcomes of the VBF. We compared observed pharmacy cost per member per month in the year following the VBF implementation with 2 comparator groups: (1) observed pharmacy costs in the year prior to implementation, and (2) expected costs if no changes were made to the pharmacy benefits. Expected costs were generated by applying autoregressive integrated moving averages to pharmacy costs over the previous 36 months. We used an interrupted time series analysis to assess drug use and adherence among individuals with diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia compared with a group of members in plans that did not implement a VBF.  Pharmacy costs decreased by 3% compared with the 12 months prior and 11% compared with expected costs. There was no significant decline in medication use or adherence to treatments for patients with diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia. The VBF and copayment changes enabled pharmacy plan cost savings without negatively affecting utilization in key disease states.

Expectancy-related changes in firing of dopamine neurons depend on orbitofrontal cortex.

PubMed

Takahashi, Yuji K; Roesch, Matthew R; Wilson, Robert C; Toreson, Kathy; O'Donnell, Patricio; Niv, Yael; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

2011-10-30

The orbitofrontal cortex has been hypothesized to carry information regarding the value of expected rewards. Such information is essential for associative learning, which relies on comparisons between expected and obtained reward for generating instructive error signals. These error signals are thought to be conveyed by dopamine neurons. To test whether orbitofrontal cortex contributes to these error signals, we recorded from dopamine neurons in orbitofrontal-lesioned rats performing a reward learning task. Lesions caused marked changes in dopaminergic error signaling. However, the effect of lesions was not consistent with a simple loss of information regarding expected value. Instead, without orbitofrontal input, dopaminergic error signals failed to reflect internal information about the impending response that distinguished externally similar states leading to differently valued future rewards. These results are consistent with current conceptualizations of orbitofrontal cortex as supporting model-based behavior and suggest an unexpected role for this information in dopaminergic error signaling.

Synergistic Effects of Expectancy and Value on Homework Engagement: The Case for a Within-Person Perspective.

PubMed

Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich; Kelava, Augustin; Lüdtke, Oliver

2013-05-01

Historically, expectancy-value models of motivation assumed a synergistic relation between expectancy and value: motivation is high only when both expectancy and value are high. Motivational processes were studied from a within-person perspective, with expectancies and values being assessed or experimentally manipulated across multiple domains and the focus being placed on intraindividual differences. In contrast, contemporary expectancy-value models in educational psychology concentrate almost exclusively on linear effects of expectancy and value on motivational outcomes, with a focus on between-person differences. Recent advances in latent variable methodology allow both issues to be addressed in observational studies. Using the expectancy-value model of homework motivation as a theoretical framework, this study estimated multilevel structural equation models with latent interactions in a sample of 511 secondary school students and found synergistic effects between domain-specific homework expectancy and homework value in predicting homework engagement in 6 subjects. This approach not only brings the "×" back into expectancy-value theory but also reestablishes the within-person perspective as the appropriate level of analysis for latent expectancy-value models.

The Mixed Instrumental Controller: Using Value of Information to Combine Habitual Choice and Mental Simulation

PubMed Central

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Chersi, Fabian

2013-01-01

Instrumental behavior depends on both goal-directed and habitual mechanisms of choice. Normative views cast these mechanisms in terms of model-free and model-based methods of reinforcement learning, respectively. An influential proposal hypothesizes that model-free and model-based mechanisms coexist and compete in the brain according to their relative uncertainty. In this paper we propose a novel view in which a single Mixed Instrumental Controller produces both goal-directed and habitual behavior by flexibly balancing and combining model-based and model-free computations. The Mixed Instrumental Controller performs a cost-benefits analysis to decide whether to chose an action immediately based on the available “cached” value of actions (linked to model-free mechanisms) or to improve value estimation by mentally simulating the expected outcome values (linked to model-based mechanisms). Since mental simulation entails cognitive effort and increases the reward delay, it is activated only when the associated “Value of Information” exceeds its costs. The model proposes a method to compute the Value of Information, based on the uncertainty of action values and on the distance of alternative cached action values. Overall, the model by default chooses on the basis of lighter model-free estimates, and integrates them with costly model-based predictions only when useful. Mental simulation uses a sampling method to produce reward expectancies, which are used to update the cached value of one or more actions; in turn, this updated value is used for the choice. The key predictions of the model are tested in different settings of a double T-maze scenario. Results are discussed in relation with neurobiological evidence on the hippocampus – ventral striatum circuit in rodents, which has been linked to goal-directed spatial navigation. PMID:23459512

The mixed instrumental controller: using value of information to combine habitual choice and mental simulation.

PubMed

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Chersi, Fabian

2013-01-01

Instrumental behavior depends on both goal-directed and habitual mechanisms of choice. Normative views cast these mechanisms in terms of model-free and model-based methods of reinforcement learning, respectively. An influential proposal hypothesizes that model-free and model-based mechanisms coexist and compete in the brain according to their relative uncertainty. In this paper we propose a novel view in which a single Mixed Instrumental Controller produces both goal-directed and habitual behavior by flexibly balancing and combining model-based and model-free computations. The Mixed Instrumental Controller performs a cost-benefits analysis to decide whether to chose an action immediately based on the available "cached" value of actions (linked to model-free mechanisms) or to improve value estimation by mentally simulating the expected outcome values (linked to model-based mechanisms). Since mental simulation entails cognitive effort and increases the reward delay, it is activated only when the associated "Value of Information" exceeds its costs. The model proposes a method to compute the Value of Information, based on the uncertainty of action values and on the distance of alternative cached action values. Overall, the model by default chooses on the basis of lighter model-free estimates, and integrates them with costly model-based predictions only when useful. Mental simulation uses a sampling method to produce reward expectancies, which are used to update the cached value of one or more actions; in turn, this updated value is used for the choice. The key predictions of the model are tested in different settings of a double T-maze scenario. Results are discussed in relation with neurobiological evidence on the hippocampus - ventral striatum circuit in rodents, which has been linked to goal-directed spatial navigation.

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

PubMed

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Smoking as a decision among pregnant and non-pregnant women.

PubMed

Ortendahl, Monica

2006-10-01

The purpose was to examine values and beliefs related to smoking, and to test the validity of a decision model based on the product of the value of smoking-related events and states, and the belief that these will occur, (in decision research labeled Expected Utility, or EU). Over a two-week period eighty women, divided into subgroups consisting of pregnant vs. non-pregnant women, and those intending vs. those not intending to quit smoking, performed evaluations of values and beliefs for the two conditions of quitting and not quitting smoking. For both pregnant and non-pregnant women expected utility of smoking was negative. Of all the four groups pregnant women not intending to quit smoking estimated the expected utility of smoking as least negative. A decision analytic approach is applicable to describe the addictive behavior of smoking. Values as well as beliefs about smoking should be stressed in smoking cessation programs, especially among pregnant women.

Value Orientations: A Study of Black College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thornton, Clarence H.

2004-01-01

The present investigation describes the manner in which a group of southern black college students structure their value preferences. Based upon prior research, especially among white college students, it was expected that our sampled respondents would embrace values associated with economic and materialistic success. However, results obtained…

[Expectations and patient satisfaction in hospitals: construction and application of an expectation-based experience typology and its use in the management of quality and expectations].

PubMed

Gehrlach, Christoph; Güntert, Bernhard

2015-01-01

Patient satisfaction (PS) surveys are frequently used evaluation methods to show performance from the customer's view. This approach has some fundamental deficits, especially with respect to theory, methodology and usage. Because of the significant theoretical value of the expectation confirmation/disconfirmation concept in the development of PS, an expectation-based experience typology has been developed and tested to check whether this approach could be a theoretical and practical alternative to the survey of PS. Due to the mainly cognitive-rational process of comparison between expectations and expectation fulfilment, it is easier to make changes in this stage of the process than in the subsequent stage of the development of PS that is mainly based on emotional-affective processes. The paper contains a literature review of the common concept of PS and its causal and influencing factors. Based on the theoretical part of this study, an expectation-based experience typology was developed. In the next step, the typology was subjected to exploratory testing, based on two patient surveys. In some parts of the tested typology explorative differences could be found between hospitals. Despite this rather more complex and unusual approach to expectation-based experience typology, this concept offers the chance to change conditions not only retrospectively (based on data), but also in a prospective way in terms of a "management of expectations". Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Spurious symptom reduction in fault monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shontz, William D.; Records, Roger M.; Choi, Jai J.

1993-01-01

Previous work accomplished on NASA's Faultfinder concept suggested that the concept was jeopardized by spurious symptoms generated in the monitoring phase. The purpose of the present research was to investigate methods of reducing the generation of spurious symptoms during in-flight engine monitoring. Two approaches for reducing spurious symptoms were investigated. A knowledge base of rules was constructed to filter known spurious symptoms and a neural net was developed to improve the expectation values used in the monitoring process. Both approaches were effective in reducing spurious symptoms individually. However, the best results were obtained using a hybrid system combining the neural net capability to improve expectation values with the rule-based logic filter.

Beyond Test Scores: Adding Value to Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothman, Robert

2010-01-01

At a time when teacher quality has emerged as a key factor in student learning, a statistical technique that determines the "value added" that teachers bring to student achievement is getting new scrutiny. Value-added measures compare students' growth in achievement to their expected growth, based on prior achievement and demographic…

Making Connections: Replicating and Extending the Utility Value Intervention in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hulleman, Chris S.; Kosovich, Jeff J.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Daniel, David B.

2017-01-01

We replicated and extended prior research investigating a theoretically guided intervention based on expectancy-value theory designed to enhance student learning outcomes (e.g., Hulleman & Harackiewicz, 2009). First, we replicated prior work by demonstrating that the utility value intervention, which manipulated whether students made…

The Surprisingly Low Motivational Power of Future Rewards: Comparing Conventional Money-Based Measures of Discounting with Motivation-Based Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ebert, Jane E. J.

2010-01-01

Temporal discount rates are often poor predictors of behaviors that we expect will be motivated by the future. The current research suggests this may be because conventional discounting measures are poor measures of the motivational value of future rewards. In six studies, I develop motivation-based measures of the present value (PV) of future…

Expected Reachability-Time Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forejt, Vojtěch; Kwiatkowska, Marta; Norman, Gethin; Trivedi, Ashutosh

In an expected reachability-time game (ERTG) two players, Min and Max, move a token along the transitions of a probabilistic timed automaton, so as to minimise and maximise, respectively, the expected time to reach a target. These games are concurrent since at each step of the game both players choose a timed move (a time delay and action under their control), and the transition of the game is determined by the timed move of the player who proposes the shorter delay. A game is turn-based if at any step of the game, all available actions are under the control of precisely one player. We show that while concurrent ERTGs are not always determined, turn-based ERTGs are positionally determined. Using the boundary region graph abstraction, and a generalisation of Asarin and Maler's simple function, we show that the decision problems related to computing the upper/lower values of concurrent ERTGs, and computing the value of turn-based ERTGs are decidable and their complexity is in NEXPTIME ∩ co-NEXPTIME.

Faustmann and the forestry tradition of outcome-based performance measures

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince

1999-01-01

The concept of land expectation value developed by Martin Faustmann may serve as a paradigm for outcome-based performance measures in public forest management if the concept of forest equity value is broadened to include social and environmental benefits and costs, and sustainability. However, anticipation and accurate evaluation of all benefits and costs appears to...

The value of foresight: how prospection affects decision-making.

PubMed

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

2011-01-01

Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread.

The Value of Foresight: How Prospection Affects Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

2011-01-01

Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread. PMID:21747755

Who took the "x" out of expectancy-value theory? A psychological mystery, a substantive-methodological synergy, and a cross-national generalization.

PubMed

Nagengast, Benjamin; Marsh, Herbert W; Scalas, L Francesca; Xu, Man K; Hau, Kit-Tai; Trautwein, Ulrich

2011-08-01

Expectancy-value theory (EVT) is a dominant theory of human motivation. Historically, the Expectancy × Value interaction, in which motivation is high only if both expectancy and value are high, was central to EVT. However, the Expectancy × Value interaction mysteriously disappeared from published research more than 25 years ago. Using large representative samples of 15-year-olds (N = 398,750) from 57 diverse countries, we attempted to solve this mystery by testing Expectancy × Value interactions using latent-variable models with interactions. Expectancy (science self-concept), value (enjoyment of science), and the Expectancy × Value interaction all had statistically significant positive effects on both engagement in science activities and intentions of pursuing scientific careers; these results were similar for the total sample and for nearly all of the 57 countries considered separately. This study, apparently the strongest cross-national test of EVT ever undertaken, supports the generalizability of EVT predictions--including the "lost" Expectancy × Value interaction.

Human versus automation in responding to failures: an expected-value analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheridan, T. B.; Parasuraman, R.

2000-01-01

A simple analytical criterion is provided for deciding whether a human or automation is best for a failure detection task. The method is based on expected-value decision theory in much the same way as is signal detection. It requires specification of the probabilities of misses (false negatives) and false alarms (false positives) for both human and automation being considered, as well as factors independent of the choice--namely, costs and benefits of incorrect and correct decisions as well as the prior probability of failure. The method can also serve as a basis for comparing different modes of automation. Some limiting cases of application are discussed, as are some decision criteria other than expected value. Actual or potential applications include the design and evaluation of any system in which either humans or automation are being considered.

Mental models of adherence: parallels in perceptions, values, and expectations in adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and other personal regimens.

PubMed

Rizzo, Jon; Bell, Alexandra

2018-05-09

A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which strongly influences behaviors. This study explored orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and how they related to mental models of adherence to other types of personal regimens. The study followed an interpretive description qualitative design. Data were collected via two semi-structured interviews. Interview One focused on participants prior experiences adhering to personal regimens. Interview Two focused on experiences adhering to their current prescribed home exercise program. Data analysis followed a constant comparative method. Findings revealed similarity in perceptions, values, and expectations that informed individuals mental models of adherence to personal regimens and prescribed home exercise programs. Perceived realized results, expected results, perceived social supports, and value of convenience characterized mental models of adherence. Parallels between mental models of adherence for prescribed home exercise and other personal regimens suggest that patients adherence behavior to prescribed routines may be influenced by adherence experiences in other aspects of their lives. By gaining insight into patients adherence experiences, values, and expectations across life domains, clinicians may tailor supports that enhance home exercise adherence. Implications for Rehabilitation A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which is based on prior experiences and strongly influences behaviors. This study demonstrated similarity in orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and adherence to personal regimens in other aspects of their lives. Physical therapists should inquire about patients non-medical adherence experiences, as strategies patients customarily use to adhere to other activities may inform strategies to promote prescribed home exercise adherence.

Model testing for reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale.

PubMed

Resnick, B; Zimmerman, S; Orwig, D; Furstenberg, A L; Magaziner, J

2001-01-01

Development of a reliable and valid measure of outcome expectations for exercise appropriate for older adults will help establish the relationship between outcome expectations and exercise. Once established, this measure can be used to facilitate the development of interventions to strengthen outcome expectations and improve adherence to regular exercise in older adults. Building on initial psychometrics of the Outcome Expectation for Exercise (OEE) Scale, the purpose of the current study was to use structural equation modeling to provide additional support for the reliability and validity of this measure. The OEE scale is a 9-item measure specifically focusing on the perceived consequences of exercise for older adults. The OEE scale was given to 191 residents in a continuing care retirement community. The mean age of the participants was 85 +/- 6.1 and the majority were female (76%), White (99%), and unmarried (76%). Using structural equation modeling, reliability was based on R2 values, and validity was based on a confirmatory factor analysis and path coefficients. There was continued evidence for reliability of the OEE based on R2 values ranging from .42 to .77, and validity with path coefficients ranging from .69 to .87, and evidence of model fit (X2 of 69, df = 27, p < .05, NFI = .98, RMSEA = .07). The evidence of reliability and validity of this measure has important implications for clinical work and research. The OEE scale can be used to identify older adults who have low outcome expectations for exercise, and interventions can then be implemented to strengthen these expectations and thereby improve exercise behavior.

Effort-based cost-benefit valuation and the human brain

PubMed Central

Croxson, Paula L; Walton, Mark E; O'Reilly, Jill X; Behrens, Timothy EJ; Rushworth, Matthew FS

2010-01-01

In both the wild and the laboratory, animals' preferences for one course of action over another reflect not just reward expectations but also the cost in terms of effort that must be invested in pursuing the course of action. The ventral striatum and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACCd) are implicated in the making of cost-benefit decisions in the rat but there is little information about how effort costs are processed and influence calculations of expected net value in other mammals including the human. We carried out a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study to determine whether and where activity in the human brain was available to guide effort-based cost-benefit valuation. Subjects were scanned while they performed a series of effortful actions to obtain secondary reinforcers. At the beginning of each trial, subjects were presented with one of eight different visual cues which they had learned indicated how much effort the course of action would entail and how much reward could be expected at its completion. Cue-locked activity in the ventral striatum and midbrain reflected the net value of the course of action, signaling the expected amount of reward discounted by the amount of effort to be invested. Activity in ACCd also reflected the interaction of both expected reward and effort costs. Posterior orbitofrontal and insular activity, however, only reflected the expected reward magnitude. The ventral striatum and anterior cingulate cortex may be the substrate of effort-based cost-benefit valuation in primates as well as in rats. PMID:19357278

Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

PubMed

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-06-01

In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

Expected value based fuzzy programming approach to solve integrated supplier selection and inventory control problem with fuzzy demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno; Widowati; Sunarsih; Kartono

2018-01-01

In this paper, a mathematical model in quadratic programming with fuzzy parameter is proposed to determine the optimal strategy for integrated inventory control and supplier selection problem with fuzzy demand. To solve the corresponding optimization problem, we use the expected value based fuzzy programming. Numerical examples are performed to evaluate the model. From the results, the optimal amount of each product that have to be purchased from each supplier for each time period and the optimal amount of each product that have to be stored in the inventory for each time period were determined with minimum total cost and the inventory level was sufficiently closed to the reference level.

Expected net present value of pure and mixed sexed semen artificial insemination strategies in dairy heifers.

PubMed

Olynk, N J; Wolf, C A

2007-05-01

Sexed semen has been a long-anticipated tool for dairy farmers to obtain more heifer calves, but challenges exist for integrating sexed semen into commercial dairy farm reproduction programs. The decreased conception rates (CR) experienced with sexed semen make virgin heifers better suited for insemination with sexed semen than lactating dairy cows. This research sought to identify when various sexed semen breeding strategies provided higher expected net present value (NPV) than conventional artificial insemination (AI) breeding schemes, indicating which breeding scheme is advisable under various scenarios. Budgets were developed to calculate the expected NPV of various AI breeding strategies incorporating conventional (non-sexed) and sexed semen. In the base budgets, heifer and bull calf values were held constant at $500 and $110, respectively. The percentage of heifers expected to be born after breeding with conventional and sexed semen used was 49.2 and 90%, respectively. Breeding costs per AI were held constant at $15.00 per AI for conventional semen and $45.00 per AI for sexed semen of approximately the same genetic value. Conventional semen CR of 58 and 65% were used, and an AI submission rate was set at 100%. Breeding strategies with sexed semen were assessed for breakeven heifer calf values and sexed semen costs to obtain a NPV equal to that achieved with conventional semen. Breakeven heifer calf values for pure sexed semen strategies with a constant 58 and 65% base CR in which sexed semen achieved 53% of the base CR are $732.11 and $664.26, respectively. Breakeven sexed semen costs per AI of $17.16 and $22.39, compared with $45.00 per AI, were obtained to obtain a NPV equal to that obtained with pure conventional semen for base CR of 58 and 65%, respectively. The strategy employing purely sexed semen, with base CR of both 58 and 65%, yielded a lower NPV than purely conventional semen in all but the best-case scenario in which sexed semen provides 90% of the CR of conventional semen. Other potential advantages of sexed semen that were not quantified in the scenarios include biosecurity-related concerns, decreased dystocia due to increased numbers of heifer calves, and implications for internal herd growth.

Algebraic function operator expectation value based quantum eigenstate determination: A case of twisted or bent Hamiltonian, or, a spatially univariate quantum system on a curved space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baykara, N. A.

Recent studies on quantum evolutionary problems in Demiralp’s group have arrived at a stage where the construction of an expectation value formula for a given algebraic function operator depending on only position operator becomes possible. It has also been shown that this formula turns into an algebraic recursion amongst some finite number of consecutive elements in a set of expectation values of an appropriately chosen basis set over the natural number powers of the position operator as long as the function under consideration and the system Hamiltonian are both autonomous. This recursion corresponds to a denumerable infinite number of algebraicmore » equations whose solutions can or can not be obtained analytically. This idea is not completely original. There are many recursive relations amongst the expectation values of the natural number powers of position operator. However, those recursions may not be always efficient to get the system energy values and especially the eigenstate wavefunctions. The present approach is somehow improved and generalized form of those expansions. We focus on this issue for a specific system where the Hamiltonian is defined on the coordinate of a curved space instead of the Cartesian one.« less

Musings on cosmological relaxation and the hierarchy problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeckel, Joerg; Mehta, Viraf M.; Witkowski, Lukas T.

2016-03-01

Recently Graham, Kaplan and Rajendran proposed cosmological relaxation as a mechanism for generating a hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation value. Inspired by this we collect some thoughts on steps towards a solution to the electroweak hierarchy problem and apply them to the original model of cosmological relaxation [Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 221801 (2015)]. To do so, we study the dynamics of the model and determine the relation between the fundamental input parameters and the electroweak vacuum expectation value. Depending on the input parameters the model exhibits three qualitatively different regimes, two of which allow for hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation values. One leads to standard electroweak symmetry breaking whereas in the other regime electroweak symmetry is mainly broken by a Higgs source term. While the latter is not acceptable in a model based on the QCD axion, in non-QCD models this may lead to new and interesting signatures in Higgs observables. Overall, we confirm that cosmological relaxation can successfully give rise to a hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation value if (at least) one model parameter is chosen sufficiently small. However, we find that the required level of tuning for achieving this hierarchy in relaxation models can be much more severe than in the Standard Model.

Cosmological coherent state expectation values in loop quantum gravity I. Isotropic kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dapor, Andrea; Liegener, Klaus

2018-07-01

This is the first paper of a series dedicated to loop quantum gravity (LQG) coherent states and cosmology. The concept is based on the effective dynamics program of Loop Quantum Cosmology, where the classical dynamics generated by the expectation value of the Hamiltonian on semiclassical states is found to be in agreement with the quantum evolution of such states. We ask the question of whether this expectation value agrees with the one obtained in the full theory. The answer is in the negative, Dapor and Liegener (2017 arXiv:1706.09833). This series of papers is dedicated to detailing the computations that lead to that surprising result. In the current paper, we construct the family of coherent states in LQG which represent flat (k  =  0) Robertson–Walker spacetimes, and present the tools needed to compute expectation values of polynomial operators in holonomy and flux on such states. These tools will be applied to the LQG Hamiltonian operator (in Thiemann regularization) in the second paper of the series. The third paper will present an extension to cosmologies and a comparison with alternative regularizations of the Hamiltonian.

When Can Subscores Be Expected to Have Added Value? Results from Operational and Simulated Data. Research Report. ETS RR-10-16

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2010-01-01

Recently, there has been an increasing level of interest in subscores for their potential diagnostic value. Haberman (2008) suggested a method based on classical test theory to determine whether subscores have added value over total scores. This paper provides a literature review and reports when subscores were found to have added value for…

The Foreign Language Learning Value Beliefs of Japanese Elementary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Ron Reuel

2013-01-01

This study was an investigation of student beliefs about their EFL education, and it was based upon the subjective task value component of the expectancy-value theory, a prominent theory of achievement motivation. The participants were three cohorts of Japanese public elementary school students (Cohort 1 from 2008; Cohort 2 from 2009; and Cohort 3…

The Rate of Value Increase for Sugar Maple

Treesearch

Joseph J. Mendel; Ted J. Grisez; G.R. Jr. Trimble; G.R. Jr. Trimble

1973-01-01

Presents financial-maturity information for sugar maple, based on tree growth and tree-quality data collected in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Detailed rates of value increase and dollar value increase to be expected for a 10-year period are exhibited. Marking guides in the form of financial-maturity diameters are developed. The effects on financial aturity of...

A customer satisfaction model for a utility service industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamil, Jastini Mohd; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd; Ramli, Razamin

2016-08-01

This paper explores the effect of Image, Customer Expectation, Perceived Quality and Perceived Value on Customer Satisfaction, and to investigate the effect of Image and Customer Satisfaction on Customer Loyalty of mobile phone provider in Malaysia. The result of this research is based on data gathered online from international students in one of the public university in Malaysia. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) has been used to analyze the data that have been collected from the international students' perceptions. The results found that Image and Perceived Quality have significant impact on Customer Satisfaction. Image and Customer Satisfaction ware also found to have significantly related to Customer Loyalty. However, no significant impact has been found between Customer Expectation with Customer Satisfaction, Perceived Value with Customer Satisfaction, and Customer Expectation with Perceived Value. We hope that the findings may assist the mobile phone provider in production and promotion of their services.

Replica and extreme-value analysis of the Jarzynski free-energy estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palassini, Matteo; Ritort, Felix

2008-03-01

We analyze the Jarzynski estimator of free-energy differences from nonequilibrium work measurements. By a simple mapping onto Derrida's Random Energy Model, we obtain a scaling limit for the expectation of the bias of the estimator. We then derive analytical approximations in three different regimes of the scaling parameter x = log(N)/W, where N is the number of measurements and W the mean dissipated work. Our approach is valid for a generic distribution of the dissipated work, and is based on a replica symmetry breaking scheme for x >> 1, the asymptotic theory of extreme value statistics for x << 1, and a direct approach for x near one. The combination of the three analytic approximations describes well Monte Carlo data for the expectation value of the estimator, for a wide range of values of N, from N=1 to large N, and for different work distributions. Based on these results, we introduce improved free-energy estimators and discuss the application to the analysis of experimental data.

The value of identity: olfactory notes on orbitofrontal cortex function.

PubMed

Gottfried, Jay A; Zelano, Christina

2011-12-01

Neuroscientific research has emphatically promoted the idea that the key function of the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is to encode value. Associative learning studies indicate that OFC representations of stimulus cues reflect the predictive value of expected outcomes. Neuroeconomic studies suggest that the OFC distills abstract representations of value from discrete commodities to optimize choice. Although value-based models provide good explanatory power for many different findings, these models are typically disconnected from the very stimuli and commodities giving rise to those value representations. Little provision is made, either theoretically or empirically, for the necessary cooperative role of object identity, without which value becomes orphaned from its source. As a step toward remediating the value of identity, this review provides a focused olfactory survey of OFC research, including new work from our lab, to highlight the elemental involvement of this region in stimulus-specific predictive coding of both perceptual outcomes and expected values. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

PubMed

Wigfield; Eccles

2000-01-01

We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Improving deep convolutional neural networks with mixed maxout units.

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-Zhen; Liu, Fu-Xian; Li, Long-Yue

2017-01-01

Motivated by insights from the maxout-units-based deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that "non-maximal features are unable to deliver" and "feature mapping subspace pooling is insufficient," we present a novel mixed variant of the recently introduced maxout unit called a mixout unit. Specifically, we do so by calculating the exponential probabilities of feature mappings gained by applying different convolutional transformations over the same input and then calculating the expected values according to their exponential probabilities. Moreover, we introduce the Bernoulli distribution to balance the maximum values with the expected values of the feature mappings subspace. Finally, we design a simple model to verify the pooling ability of mixout units and a Mixout-units-based Network-in-Network (NiN) model to analyze the feature learning ability of the mixout models. We argue that our proposed units improve the pooling ability and that mixout models can achieve better feature learning and classification performance.

Economics in “Global Health 2035”: a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates

PubMed Central

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-01-01

Background In “Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation,” The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well–being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low– and middle–income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. Methods The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. Findings We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Conclusion Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach. PMID:28400950

Distinct and Overlapping Brain Areas Engaged during Value-Based, Mathematical, and Emotional Decision Processing

PubMed Central

Hsu, Chun-Wei; Goh, Joshua O. S.

2016-01-01

When comparing between the values of different choices, human beings can rely on either more cognitive processes, such as using mathematical computation, or more affective processes, such as using emotion. However, the neural correlates of how these two types of processes operate during value-based decision-making remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the extent to which neural regions engaged during value-based decision-making overlap with those engaged during mathematical and emotional processing in a within-subject manner. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment, participants viewed stimuli that always consisted of numbers and emotional faces that depicted two choices. Across tasks, participants decided between the two choices based on the expected value of the numbers, a mathematical result of the numbers, or the emotional face stimuli. We found that all three tasks commonly involved various cortical areas including frontal, parietal, motor, somatosensory, and visual regions. Critically, the mathematical task shared common areas with the value but not emotion task in bilateral striatum. Although the emotion task overlapped with the value task in parietal, motor, and sensory areas, the mathematical task also evoked responses in other areas within these same cortical structures. Minimal areas were uniquely engaged for the value task apart from the other two tasks. The emotion task elicited a more expansive area of neural activity whereas value and mathematical task responses were in more focal regions. Whole-brain spatial correlation analysis showed that valuative processing engaged functional brain responses more similarly to mathematical processing than emotional processing. While decisions on expected value entail both mathematical and emotional processing regions, mathematical processes have a more prominent contribution particularly in subcortical processes. PMID:27375466

Distinct and Overlapping Brain Areas Engaged during Value-Based, Mathematical, and Emotional Decision Processing.

PubMed

Hsu, Chun-Wei; Goh, Joshua O S

2016-01-01

When comparing between the values of different choices, human beings can rely on either more cognitive processes, such as using mathematical computation, or more affective processes, such as using emotion. However, the neural correlates of how these two types of processes operate during value-based decision-making remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the extent to which neural regions engaged during value-based decision-making overlap with those engaged during mathematical and emotional processing in a within-subject manner. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment, participants viewed stimuli that always consisted of numbers and emotional faces that depicted two choices. Across tasks, participants decided between the two choices based on the expected value of the numbers, a mathematical result of the numbers, or the emotional face stimuli. We found that all three tasks commonly involved various cortical areas including frontal, parietal, motor, somatosensory, and visual regions. Critically, the mathematical task shared common areas with the value but not emotion task in bilateral striatum. Although the emotion task overlapped with the value task in parietal, motor, and sensory areas, the mathematical task also evoked responses in other areas within these same cortical structures. Minimal areas were uniquely engaged for the value task apart from the other two tasks. The emotion task elicited a more expansive area of neural activity whereas value and mathematical task responses were in more focal regions. Whole-brain spatial correlation analysis showed that valuative processing engaged functional brain responses more similarly to mathematical processing than emotional processing. While decisions on expected value entail both mathematical and emotional processing regions, mathematical processes have a more prominent contribution particularly in subcortical processes.

Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

2018-03-01

Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

Equity and Advocacy Expectations of Culturally Diverse Families' Participation in Special Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalyanpur, Maya; Harry, Beth; Skrtic, Tom

2000-01-01

This article contends that the equity and advocacy expectations embedded in the legal mandate for parent participation in the special education decision-making process directly contradict the hierarchy of professional status and knowledge on which the positivist paradigm of professionalism is based and are also in conflict with the values held by…

Overtaking method based on sand-sifter mechanism: Why do optimistic value functions find optimal solutions in multi-armed bandit problems?

PubMed

Ochi, Kento; Kamiura, Moto

2015-09-01

A multi-armed bandit problem is a search problem on which a learning agent must select the optimal arm among multiple slot machines generating random rewards. UCB algorithm is one of the most popular methods to solve multi-armed bandit problems. It achieves logarithmic regret performance by coordinating balance between exploration and exploitation. Since UCB algorithms, researchers have empirically known that optimistic value functions exhibit good performance in multi-armed bandit problems. The terms optimistic or optimism might suggest that the value function is sufficiently larger than the sample mean of rewards. The first definition of UCB algorithm is focused on the optimization of regret, and it is not directly based on the optimism of a value function. We need to think the reason why the optimism derives good performance in multi-armed bandit problems. In the present article, we propose a new method, which is called Overtaking method, to solve multi-armed bandit problems. The value function of the proposed method is defined as an upper bound of a confidence interval with respect to an estimator of expected value of reward: the value function asymptotically approaches to the expected value of reward from the upper bound. If the value function is larger than the expected value under the asymptote, then the learning agent is almost sure to be able to obtain the optimal arm. This structure is called sand-sifter mechanism, which has no regrowth of value function of suboptimal arms. It means that the learning agent can play only the current best arm in each time step. Consequently the proposed method achieves high accuracy rate and low regret and some value functions of it can outperform UCB algorithms. This study suggests the advantage of optimism of agents in uncertain environment by one of the simplest frameworks. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Drivers Of Health As A Shared Value: Mindset, Expectations, Sense Of Community, And Civic Engagement.

PubMed

Chandra, Anita; Miller, Carolyn E; Acosta, Joie D; Weilant, Sarah; Trujillo, Matthew; Plough, Alonzo

2016-11-01

Making health a shared value is central to building a culture of health, a new action framework intended to spur faster progress toward equitable health outcomes in the United States. Unlike in other US social movements, such as the environmental and civil rights movements, the necessary understanding of shared values has not yet been achieved for health. Discussions about values regarding health have primarily focused on health care instead of health or well-being. These discussions have not progressed to a clear focus on prioritizing values on health instead of simply health care. The evidence base for understanding health as a shared value is only now emerging. Making health a shared value is the first of four Action Areas in the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Culture of Health Action Framework. We assert that the achievement of this shared understanding of health as a cultural value will be enhanced through action in specific drivers: mindset and expectations, sense of community, and civic engagement. Building on a literature review and stakeholder engagement, this article examines the evidence base for these drivers and identifies where policy and research actions are needed to advance positive change on population health and well-being outcomes. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Discounting and decision making in the economic evaluation of health-care technologies.

PubMed

Claxton, Karl; Paulden, Mike; Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Culyer, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Discounting costs and health benefits in cost-effectiveness analysis has been the subject of recent debate - some authors suggesting a common rate for both and others suggesting a lower rate for health. We show how these views turn on key judgments of fact and value: on whether the social objective is to maximise discounted health outcomes or the present consumption value of health; on whether the budget for health care is fixed; on the expected growth in the cost-effectiveness threshold; and on the expected growth in the consumption value of health. We demonstrate that if the budget for health care is fixed and decisions are based on incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounting costs and health gains at the same rate is correct only if the threshold remains constant. Expecting growth in the consumption value of health does not itself justify differential rates but implies a lower rate for both. However, whether one believes that the objective should be the maximisation of the present value of health or the present consumption value of health, adopting the social time preference rate for consumption as the discount rate for costs and health gains is valid only under strong and implausible assumptions about values and facts. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

What You See Is What You Get: The Role of Early Adolescents' Perceptions in the Intergenerational Transmission of Academic Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gniewosz, Burkhard; Noack, Peter

2012-01-01

The present research addresses processes involved in academic value transmission within family. Drawing on expectancy x value and social learning theory, a two-wave longitudinal study based on data from 1014 students, 878 mothers, and 748 fathers was conducted to examine the mechanisms of parental influence. Structural equation modeling provided…

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

PubMed

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.

Probing for the Multiplicative Term in Modern Expectancy-Value Theory: A Latent Interaction Modeling Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trautwein, Ulrich; Marsh, Herbert W.; Nagengast, Benjamin; Ludtke, Oliver; Nagy, Gabriel; Jonkmann, Kathrin

2012-01-01

In modern expectancy-value theory (EVT) in educational psychology, expectancy and value beliefs additively predict performance, persistence, and task choice. In contrast to earlier formulations of EVT, the multiplicative term Expectancy x Value in regression-type models typically plays no major role in educational psychology. The present study…

Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper; Williams, Byron K.

2014-01-01

We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value of only 3.0%. This value represents the difference between the best that could be expected if the most appropriate model were known and the best that could be expected in the face of model uncertainty. The value of eliminating uncertainty about the survival process was substantially higher than that associated with the reproductive process, which is consistent with evidence that variation in survival is more important than variation in reproduction in relatively long-lived avian species. Comparing the expected objective value if the most appropriate model were known with that of the maxi–min robust strategy, we found the value of eliminating uncertainty to be an expected increase of 6.2% in objective value. This result underscores the conservatism of the maxi–min rule and suggests that risk-neutral managers would prefer the optimal strategy that maximizes expected value, which is also the strategy that is expected to minimize the maximum loss (i.e., a strategy based on equal model weights). The low value of information calculated for pink-footed geese suggests that a robust strategy (i.e., one in which no learning is anticipated) could be as nearly effective as an adaptive one (i.e., a strategy in which the relative credibility of models is assessed through time). Of course, an alternative explanation for the low value of information is that the set of population models we considered was too narrow to represent key uncertainties in population dynamics. Yet we know that questions about the presence of density dependence must be central to the development of a sustainable harvest strategy. And while there are potentially many environmental covariates that could help explain variation in survival or reproduction, our admission of models in which vital rates are drawn randomly from reasonable distributions represents a worst-case scenario for management. We suspect that much of the value of the various harvest strategies we calculated is derived from the fact that they are state dependent, such that appropriate harvest rates depend on population abundance and weather conditions, as well as our focus on an infinite time horizon for sustainability.

Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

PubMed

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

Value-of-information analysis within a stakeholder-driven research prioritization process in a US setting: an application in cancer genomics.

PubMed

Carlson, Josh J; Thariani, Rahber; Roth, Josh; Gralow, Julie; Henry, N Lynn; Esmail, Laura; Deverka, Pat; Ramsey, Scott D; Baker, Laurence; Veenstra, David L

2013-05-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and outcomes of incorporating value-of-information (VOI) analysis into a stakeholder-driven research prioritization process in a US-based setting. . Within a program to prioritize comparative effectiveness research areas in cancer genomics, over a period of 7 months, we developed decision-analytic models and calculated upper-bound VOI estimates for 3 previously selected genomic tests. Thirteen stakeholders representing patient advocates, payers, test developers, regulators, policy makers, and community-based oncologists ranked the tests before and after receiving VOI results. The stakeholders were surveyed about the usefulness and impact of the VOI findings. The estimated upper-bound VOI ranged from $33 million to $2.8 billion for the 3 research areas. Seven stakeholders indicated the results modified their rankings, 9 stated VOI data were useful, and all indicated they would support its use in future prioritization processes. Some stakeholders indicated expected value of sampled information might be the preferred choice when evaluating specific Limitations. Our study was limited by the size and the potential for selection bias in the composition of the external stakeholder group, lack of a randomized design to assess effect of VOI data on rankings, and the use of expected value of perfect information v. expected value of sample information methods. Value of information analyses may have a meaningful role in research topic prioritization for comparative effectiveness research in the United States, particularly when large differences in VOI across topic areas are identified. Additional research is needed to facilitate the use of more complex value of information analyses in this setting.

Defects in Semiconductors 16: Proceedings of the International Conference (16th) Held in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania on 22-26 July 1991. Part 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

Because of the dislocations, one expects to see steps or extra atomic rows. In figure 1, the black to white scale corresponds to 0.2 nm, which is the...that the shift of the Ge and Si g-values from the free electron value (g) scales with the spin crbit coupling parameters as expected . Also pertinent...Paramagnetic defects in SiC based materials 1201 0. Chauvet, L. Zuppiroli, J. Ardonceau, 1. Solomon, Y.C. Wang and R.F. Davis Acceptors in silicon car1hide

The Value of Heterogeneity for Cost-Effectiveness Subgroup Analysis

PubMed Central

Manca, Andrea; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark J.

2014-01-01

This article develops a general framework to guide the use of subgroup cost-effectiveness analysis for decision making in a collectively funded health system. In doing so, it addresses 2 key policy questions, namely, the identification and selection of subgroups, while distinguishing 2 sources of potential value associated with heterogeneity. These are 1) the value of revealing the factors associated with heterogeneity in costs and outcomes using existing evidence (static value) and 2) the value of acquiring further subgroup-related evidence to resolve the uncertainty given the current understanding of heterogeneity (dynamic value). Consideration of these 2 sources of value can guide subgroup-specific treatment decisions and inform whether further research should be conducted to resolve uncertainty to explain variability in costs and outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to a cost-effectiveness analysis for the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome. This study presents the expected net benefits under current and perfect information when subgroups are defined based on the use and combination of 6 binary covariates. The results of the case study confirm the theoretical expectations. As more subgroups are considered, the marginal net benefit gains obtained under the current information show diminishing marginal returns, and the expected value of perfect information shows a decreasing trend. We present a suggested algorithm that synthesizes the results to guide policy. PMID:24944196

The value of heterogeneity for cost-effectiveness subgroup analysis: conceptual framework and application.

PubMed

Espinoza, Manuel A; Manca, Andrea; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark J

2014-11-01

This article develops a general framework to guide the use of subgroup cost-effectiveness analysis for decision making in a collectively funded health system. In doing so, it addresses 2 key policy questions, namely, the identification and selection of subgroups, while distinguishing 2 sources of potential value associated with heterogeneity. These are 1) the value of revealing the factors associated with heterogeneity in costs and outcomes using existing evidence (static value) and 2) the value of acquiring further subgroup-related evidence to resolve the uncertainty given the current understanding of heterogeneity (dynamic value). Consideration of these 2 sources of value can guide subgroup-specific treatment decisions and inform whether further research should be conducted to resolve uncertainty to explain variability in costs and outcomes. We apply the proposed methods to a cost-effectiveness analysis for the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome. This study presents the expected net benefits under current and perfect information when subgroups are defined based on the use and combination of 6 binary covariates. The results of the case study confirm the theoretical expectations. As more subgroups are considered, the marginal net benefit gains obtained under the current information show diminishing marginal returns, and the expected value of perfect information shows a decreasing trend. We present a suggested algorithm that synthesizes the results to guide policy. © The Author(s) 2014.

Promoting Physical Activity in Hong Kong Chinese Young People: Factors Influencing Their Subjective Task Values and Expectancy Beliefs in Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pang, Bonnie

2014-01-01

According to Eccles et al.'s (1983) Expectancy Value Model, the two major constructs that influence young people's activity choice are subjective task value and expectancy beliefs (Eccles et al., 1983). Eccles et al. (1983) conceptually distinguished four dimensions of subjective task value: attainment value, intrinsic value, utility value and…

A Brief Critique of the TATES Procedure.

PubMed

Aliev, Fazil; Salvatore, Jessica E; Agrawal, Arpana; Almasy, Laura; Chan, Grace; Edenberg, Howard J; Hesselbrock, Victor; Kuperman, Samuel; Meyers, Jacquelyn; Dick, Danielle M

2018-03-01

The Trait-based test that uses the Extended Simes procedure (TATES) was developed as a method for conducting multivariate GWAS for correlated phenotypes whose underlying genetic architecture is complex. In this paper, we provide a brief methodological critique of the TATES method using simulated examples and a mathematical proof. Our simulated examples using correlated phenotypes show that the Type I error rate is higher than expected, and that more TATES p values fall outside of the confidence interval relative to expectation. Thus the method may result in systematic inflation when used with correlated phenotypes. In a mathematical proof we further demonstrate that the distribution of TATES p values deviates from expectation in a manner indicative of inflation. Our findings indicate the need for caution when using TATES for multivariate GWAS of correlated phenotypes.

COMMENT ON "DERIVATION OF NUMERICAL VALUES FOR THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION GUIDELINES FOR RECREATIONAL WATERS"

EPA Science Inventory

The subject paper describes a procedure for adjusting a risk model based upon a measure of personal exposure (the "UK personal exposure model") in order to attribute an expected rate of gastroenteritis among a group of swimmers to a mean recreational water quality value (enteroco...

A comparison of positive and negative alcohol expectancy and value and their multiplicative composite as predictors of post-treatment abstinence survivorship.

PubMed

Jones, B T; McMahon, J

1996-01-01

Within social learning theory, positive alcohol expectancies represent motivation to drink and negative expectancies, motivation to restrain. It is also recognized that a subjective evaluation of expectancies ought to moderate their impact, although the evidence for this in social drinkers is problematic. This paper addresses the speculation that the moderating effect will be more evident in clinical populations. This study shows that (i) both expectancy and value reliably, independently and equally predict clients' abstinence survivorship following discharge from a treatment programme (and that this is almost entirely confined to the negative rather than positive terms). When (ii) expectancy evaluations are processed against expectancy through multiplicative composites (i.e. expectancy x value), their predictive power is only equivalent to either expectancy or value on its own. However (iii) when the multiplicative composite is assessed following the statistical guidelines advocated by Evans (1991) (i.e. within the same model as its constituents, expectancy and value) the increase in outcome variance explained by its inclusion is negligible and casts doubt upon its use in alcohol research. This does not appear to apply to value, however, and its possible role in treatment is discussed.

The origins of deference: when do people prefer lower status?

PubMed

Anderson, Cameron; Willer, Robb; Kilduff, Gavin J; Brown, Courtney E

2012-05-01

Although the desire for high status is considered universal, prior research suggests individuals often opt for lower status positions. Why would anyone favor a position of apparent disadvantage? In 5 studies, we found that the broad construct of status striving can be broken up into two conceptions: one based on rank, the other on respect. While individuals might universally desire high levels of respect, we find that they vary widely in the extent to which they strive for high-status rank, with many individuals opting for middle- or low-status rank. The status rank that individuals preferred depended on their self-perceived value to the group: when they believed they provided less value, they preferred lower status rank. Mediation and moderation analyses suggest that beliefs about others' expectations were the primary driver of these effects. Individuals who believed they provided little value to their group inferred that others expected them to occupy a lower status position. Individuals in turn conformed to these perceived expectations, accepting lower status rank in such settings.

Religious Values in Environmental Conservation of Traditional Society in Wakatobi Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udu, Sumiman

2018-05-01

Wakatobi is one of the Bharata that belongs to the governance system of Buton Sultanate. Therefore, as an ex-Islamic kingdom, certainly, Buton has various local wisdom in the life its society. One of the local wisdom can be seen in the system of their environmental conservation. This study made use of ethnographic approach; so, the researcher would like to expect that society might access multiple information related to the values that had become the foundation of environmental conservation in Wakatobi through this study. With this approach, the researcher would also like to expect that he gathered the data regarding how the society of Wakatobi viewed the Islamic values in their environmental conservation. The results of the study show that the biosphere heritage in Wakatobi land has been a genuine artwork by the traditional society of Wakatobi, which has been based on the Islamic values. Some of these values are internalized through kangkilo doctrine that includes: (1) kangkiloawalu (early holiness); and (2) kangkiloakhiri (final holiness). These values then have implications for their actions toward the environment. Several conservation concepts that have been based on these Islamic values can be seen in the forest, the kaindea, the motika, the menani (Napoleon) fish, the environmental management, and the shell (rondora, untu, watu). Also, the values of rahmatan lil alamin can also be found in the prayers that these traditional society utter when they are planting a tree.

Model for economic evaluation of high energy gas fracturing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engi, D.

1984-05-01

The HEGF/NPV model has been developed and adapted for interactive microcomputer calculations of the economic consequences of reservoir stimulation by high energy gas fracturing (HEGF) in naturally fractured formations. This model makes use of three individual models: a model of the stimulated reservoir, a model of the gas flow in this reservoir, and a model of the discounted expected net cash flow (net present value, or NPV) associated with the enhanced gas production. Nominal values of the input parameters, based on observed data and reasonable estimates, are used to calculate the initial expected increase in the average daily rate ofmore » production resulting from the Meigs County HEGF stimulation experiment. Agreement with the observed initial increase in rate is good. On the basis of this calculation, production from the Meigs County Well is not expected to be profitable, but the HEGF/NPV model probably provides conservative results. Furthermore, analyses of the sensitivity of the expected NPV to variations in the values of certain reservoir parameters suggest that the use of HEGF stimulation in somewhat more favorable formations is potentially profitable. 6 references, 4 figures, 3 tables.« less

Exenatide versus insulin glargine in patients with type 2 diabetes in the UK: a model of long-term clinical and cost outcomes.

PubMed

Ray, Joshua A; Boye, Kristina S; Yurgin, Nicole; Valentine, William J; Roze, Stéphane; McKendrick, Jan; Tucker, Daniel M D; Foos, Volker; Palmer, Andrew J

2007-03-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical and economic outcomes associated with exenatide or insulin glargine, added to oral therapy in individuals with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with combination oral agents in the UK setting. A published and validated computer simulation model of diabetes was used to project long-term complications, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy and direct medical costs. Probabilities of diabetes-related complications were derived from published sources. Treatment effects and patient characteristics were extracted from a recent randomised controlled trial comparing exenatide with insulin glargine. Simulations incorporated published quality of life utilities and UK-specific costs from 2004. Pharmacy costs for exenatide were based on 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100% of the US value (as no price for the UK was available at the time of analysis). Future costs and clinical benefits were discounted at 3.5% annually. Sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base-case analysis exenatide was associated with improvements in life expectancy of 0.057 years and in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.442 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) versus insulin glargine. Long-term projections demonstrated that exenatide was associated with a lower cumulative incidence of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications and CVD-related death than insulin glargine. Using the range of cost values, evaluation results showed that exenatide is likely to fall in a range between dominant (cost and life saving) at 20% of the US price and cost-effective (with an ICER of 22,420 pounds per QALY gained) at 100% of the US price, versus insulin glargine. Based on the findings of a recent clinical trial, long-term projections indicated that exenatide is likely to be associated with improvement in life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy compared to insulin glargine. The results from this modelling analysis suggest that that exenatide is likely to represent good value for money by generally accepted standards in the UK setting in individuals with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled on oral therapy.

Assessment of macroseismic intensity in the Nile basin, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fergany, Elsayed

2018-01-01

This work intends to assess deterministic seismic hazard and risk analysis in terms of the maximum expected intensity map of the Egyptian Nile basin sector. Seismic source zone model of Egypt was delineated based on updated compatible earthquake catalog in 2015, focal mechanisms, and the common tectonic elements. Four effective seismic source zones were identified along the Nile basin. The observed macroseismic intensity data along the basin was used to develop intensity prediction equation defined in terms of moment magnitude. Expected maximum intensity map was proven based on the developed intensity prediction equation, identified effective seismic source zones, and maximum expected magnitude for each zone along the basin. The earthquake hazard and risk analysis was discussed and analyzed in view of the maximum expected moment magnitude and the maximum expected intensity values for each effective source zone. Moderate expected magnitudes are expected to put high risk at Cairo and Aswan regions. The results of this study could be a recommendation for the planners in charge to mitigate the seismic risk at these strategic zones of Egypt.

A comparison of analysis methods to estimate contingency strength.

PubMed

Lloyd, Blair P; Staubitz, Johanna L; Tapp, Jon T

2018-05-09

To date, several data analysis methods have been used to estimate contingency strength, yet few studies have compared these methods directly. To compare the relative precision and sensitivity of four analysis methods (i.e., exhaustive event-based, nonexhaustive event-based, concurrent interval, concurrent+lag interval), we applied all methods to a simulated data set in which several response-dependent and response-independent schedules of reinforcement were programmed. We evaluated the degree to which contingency strength estimates produced from each method (a) corresponded with expected values for response-dependent schedules and (b) showed sensitivity to parametric manipulations of response-independent reinforcement. Results indicated both event-based methods produced contingency strength estimates that aligned with expected values for response-dependent schedules, but differed in sensitivity to response-independent reinforcement. The precision of interval-based methods varied by analysis method (concurrent vs. concurrent+lag) and schedule type (continuous vs. partial), and showed similar sensitivities to response-independent reinforcement. Recommendations and considerations for measuring contingencies are identified. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Children's motivation in elementary physical education: an expectancy-value model of achievement choice.

PubMed

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin; Solmon, Melinda

2003-03-01

This study examined children's motivation in elementary physical education within an expectancy-value model developed by Eccles and her colleagues. Four hundred fourteen students in second and fourth grades completed questionnaires assessing their expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and intention for future participation in physical education. Results indicated that expectancy-related beliefs and subjective task values were clearly distinguishable from one another across physical education and throwing. The two constructs were related to each other positively. Children's intention for future participation in physical education was positively associated with their subjective task values and/or expectancy-related beliefs. Younger children had higher motivation for learning in physical education than older children. Gender differences emerged and the findings provided empirical evidence supporting the validity of the expectancy-value model in elementary physical education.

Improving deep convolutional neural networks with mixed maxout units

PubMed Central

Liu, Fu-xian; Li, Long-yue

2017-01-01

Motivated by insights from the maxout-units-based deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that “non-maximal features are unable to deliver” and “feature mapping subspace pooling is insufficient,” we present a novel mixed variant of the recently introduced maxout unit called a mixout unit. Specifically, we do so by calculating the exponential probabilities of feature mappings gained by applying different convolutional transformations over the same input and then calculating the expected values according to their exponential probabilities. Moreover, we introduce the Bernoulli distribution to balance the maximum values with the expected values of the feature mappings subspace. Finally, we design a simple model to verify the pooling ability of mixout units and a Mixout-units-based Network-in-Network (NiN) model to analyze the feature learning ability of the mixout models. We argue that our proposed units improve the pooling ability and that mixout models can achieve better feature learning and classification performance. PMID:28727737

Values and depressive symptoms in American Indian youth of the Northern Plains: examining the potential moderating roles of outcome expectancies and perceived community values.

PubMed

Mousseau, Alicia C; Scott, Walter D; Estes, David

2014-03-01

Very little is known about processes contributing to depressive experiences in American Indian youth. We explored the relationship between value priorities and depressive symptoms among 183 (65% female) American Indian youth in grades 9-12. In addition, two potential moderators of this relationship were examined: value outcome expectations (i.e., whether one expects that values will be realized or not) and perceived community values. We found that American Indian youth who endorsed higher levels of tradition/benevolence values reported fewer depressive symptoms. However, the relationship between endorsing power/materialism values and depressive symptoms depended on the extent to which youth perceived their communities as valuing power/materialism. Finally, value outcome expectancies appeared to relate more strongly to depressive symptoms than did value priorities. Overall, these findings support tribal community efforts to impart tradition/benevolence values to American Indian youth but also emphasize the importance of attending to value outcome expectations and the perceived values of the community in understanding American Indian youth's depressive experiences.

Reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale-2.

PubMed

Resnick, Barbara

2005-10-01

Development of a reliable and valid measure of outcome expectations for exercise for older adults will help establish the relationship between outcome expectations and exercise and facilitate the development of interventions to increase physical activity in older adults. The purpose of this study was to test the reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise-2 Scale (OEE-2), a 13-item measure with two subscales: positive OEE (POEE) and negative OEE (NOEE). The OEE-2 scale was given to 161 residents in a continuing-care retirement community. There was some evidence of validity based on confirmatory factor analysis, Rasch-analysis INFIT and OUTFIT statistics, and convergent validity and test criterion relationships. There was some evidence for reliability of the OEE-2 based on alpha coefficients, person- and item-separation reliability indexes, and R(2)values. Based on analyses, suggested revisions are provided for future use of the OEE-2. Although ongoing reliability and validity testing are needed, the OEE-2 scale can be used to identify older adults with low outcome expectations for exercise, and interventions can then be implemented to strengthen these expectations and improve exercise behavior.

Segmenting and targeting American university students to promote responsible alcohol use: a case for applying social marketing principles.

PubMed

Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

2011-10-01

The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed.

In-situ resource utilization for the human exploration of Mars : a Bayesian approach to valuation of precursor missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.

2006-01-01

The need for sufficient quantities of oxygen, water, and fuel resources to support a crew on the surface of Mars presents a critical logistical issue of whether to transport such resources from Earth or manufacture them on Mars. An approach based on the classical Wildcat Drilling Problem of Bayesian decision theory was applied to the problem of finding water in order to compute the expected value of precursor mission sample information. An implicit (required) probability of finding water on Mars was derived from the value of sample information using the expected mass savings of alternative precursor missions.

Dysfunctional representation of expected value is associated with reinforcement-based decision-making deficits in adolescents with conduct problems.

PubMed

White, Stuart F; Tyler, Patrick M; Erway, Anna K; Botkin, Mary L; Kolli, Venkata; Meffert, Harma; Pope, Kayla; Blair, James R

2016-08-01

Previous work has shown that patients with conduct problems (CP) show impairments in reinforcement-based decision-making. However, studies with patients have not previously demonstrated any relationships between impairment in any of the neurocomputations underpinning reinforcement-based decision-making and specific symptom sets [e.g. level of CP and/or callous-unemotional (CU) traits]. Seventy-two youths [20 female, mean age = 13.81 (SD = 2.14), mean IQ = 102.34 (SD = 10.99)] from a residential treatment program and the community completed a passive avoidance task while undergoing functional MRI. Greater levels of CP were associated with poorer task performance. Reduced representation of expected values (EV) when making avoidance responses within bilateral anterior insula cortex/inferior frontal gyrus (AIC/iFG) and striatum was associated with greater levels of CP but not CU traits. The current data indicate that difficulties in the use of value information to motivate decisions to avoid suboptimal choices are associated with increased levels of CP (though not severity of CU traits). Moreover, they account for the behavioral deficits observed during reinforcement-based decision-making in youth with CP. In short, an individual's relative failure to utilize value information within AIC/iFG to avoid bad choices is associated with elevated levels of CP. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

PubMed

Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

2009-12-01

Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

Exact finite volume expectation values of \\overline{Ψ}Ψ in the massive Thirring model from light-cone lattice correlators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegedűs, Árpád

2018-03-01

In this paper, using the light-cone lattice regularization, we compute the finite volume expectation values of the composite operator \\overline{Ψ}Ψ between pure fermion states in the Massive Thirring Model. In the light-cone regularized picture, this expectation value is related to 2-point functions of lattice spin operators being located at neighboring sites of the lattice. The operator \\overline{Ψ}Ψ is proportional to the trace of the stress-energy tensor. This is why the continuum finite volume expectation values can be computed also from the set of non-linear integral equations (NLIE) governing the finite volume spectrum of the theory. Our results for the expectation values coming from the computation of lattice correlators agree with those of the NLIE computations. Previous conjectures for the LeClair-Mussardo-type series representation of the expectation values are also checked.

A Failing Grade for Our Efforts to Make Our Civilization More Environmentally Sustainable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nakajima, Nina; Vanderburg, Willem H.

2005-01-01

In the decades to come, the authors expect growing pressures to reform current production systems to make them more compatible with the biosphere. A proactive approach to this pressure involves consideration of an alternate value chain based on a comprehensive engineering and marketing approach to recover value from end-of-life products. To…

Student Motivation in Graduate Music Programmes: An Examination of Personal and Environmental Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez-Moreno, Patricia Adelaida

2012-01-01

Despite the increasing number of students in music education graduate programmes, attrition rates suggest a lack of success in retaining and assisting them to the completion of their degree. Based on the expectancy-value theory, the aim of this study was to examine students' motivations (values and competence beliefs) and their complex interaction…

Physical properties study on partially bio-based lubricant blends: Thermally modified soybean oil with popular commercial esters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An initial evaluation of several oils, including: soybean oil (SBO), high oleic SBO, and thermally modified SBO, compared their acid values and viscosities over 28 days stored at 85 deg C. As expected, the acid values and viscosities increased and the high oleic oil demonstrated a smaller effect. ...

Relationships between Selected Demographic Variables and Employee Work Ethics as Perceived by Supervisors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brauchle, Paul E.; Azam, Md. Shafiqul

2004-01-01

"Work ethic" is a cultural norm that advocates being personally accountable and responsible for the work that one does. It is based on a belief that work has intrinsic value to the individual. The concept of "work ethic" relates to the desirable work attitudes, values, and habits expected from employees. Positive work attitudes…

New Criterion and Tool for Caltrans Seismic Hazard Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shantz, T.; Merriam, M.; Turner, L.; Chiou, B.; Liu, X.

2008-12-01

Caltrans recently adopted new procedures for the development of response spectra for structure design. These procedures incorporate both deterministic and probabilistic criteria. The Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models (2008) are used for deterministic assessment (using a revised late-Quaternary age fault database), and the USGS 2008 5% in 50-year hazard maps are used for probabilistic assessment. A minimum deterministic spectrum based on a M6.5 earthquake at 12 km is also included. These spectra are enveloped and the largest values used. A new publicly available web-based design tool for calculating the design spectrum will be used for calculations. The tool is built on a Windows-Apache-MySQL-PHP (WAMP) platform and integrates GoogleMaps for increased flexibility in the tool's use. Links to Caltrans data such as pre-construction logs of test borings assist in the estimation of Vs30 values used in the new procedures. Basin effects based on new models developed for the CFM, for the San Francisco Bay area by the USGS, and by Thurber (2008) are also incorporated. It is anticipated that additional layers such as CGS Seismic Hazard Zone maps will be added in the future. Application of the new criterion will result in expected higher levels of ground motion at many bridges west of the Coast Ranges. In eastern California, use of the NGA relationships for strike-slip faulting (the dominant sense of motion in California) will often result in slightly lower expected values for bridges. The expected result is a more realistic prediction of ground motions at bridges, in keeping with those motions developed for other large-scale and important structures. The tool is based on a simplified fault map of California, so it will not be used for more detailed evaluations such as surface rupture determination. Announcements regarding tool availability (expected to be in early 2009) are at http://www.dot.ca.gov/research/index.htm

Selective intra-dinucleotide interactions and periodicities of bases separated by K sites: a new vision and tool for phylogeny analyses.

PubMed

Valenzuela, Carlos Y

2017-02-13

Direct tests of the random or non-random distribution of nucleotides on genomes have been devised to test the hypothesis of neutral, nearly-neutral or selective evolution. These tests are based on the direct base distribution and are independent of the functional (coding or non-coding) or structural (repeated or unique sequences) properties of the DNA. The first approach described the longitudinal distribution of bases in tandem repeats under the Bose-Einstein statistics. A huge deviation from randomness was found. A second approach was the study of the base distribution within dinucleotides whose bases were separated by 0, 1, 2… K nucleotides. Again an enormous difference from the random distribution was found with significances out of tables and programs. These test values were periodical and included the 16 dinucleotides. For example a high "positive" (more observed than expected dinucleotides) value, found in dinucleotides whose bases were separated by (3K + 2) sites, was preceded by two smaller "negative" (less observed than expected dinucleotides) values, whose bases were separated by (3K) or (3K + 1) sites. We examined mtDNAs, prokaryote genomes and some eukaryote chromosomes and found that the significant non-random interactions and periodicities were present up to 1000 or more sites of base separation and in human chromosome 21 until separations of more than 10 millions sites. Each nucleotide has its own significant value of its distance to neutrality; this yields 16 hierarchical significances. A three dimensional table with the number of sites of separation between the bases and the 16 significances (the third dimension is the dinucleotide, individual or taxon involved) gives directly an evolutionary state of the analyzed genome that can be used to obtain phylogenies. An example is provided.

Predicting Success in an Online Course Using Expectancies, Values, and Typical Mode of Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmerman, Whitney Alicia

2017-01-01

Expectancies of success and values were used to predict success in an online undergraduate-level introductory statistics course. Students who identified as primarily face-to-face learners were compared to students who identified as primarily online learners. Expectancy value theory served as a model. Expectancies of success were operationalized as…

Separate Populations of Neurons in Ventral Striatum Encode Value and Motivation

PubMed Central

Gentry, Ronny N.; Goldstein, Brandon L.; Hearn, Taylor N.; Barnett, Brian R.; Kashtelyan, Vadim; Roesch, Matthew R.

2013-01-01

Neurons in the ventral striatum (VS) fire to cues that predict differently valued rewards. It is unclear whether this activity represents the value associated with the expected reward or the level of motivation induced by reward anticipation. To distinguish between the two, we trained rats on a task in which we varied value independently from motivation by manipulating the size of the reward expected on correct trials and the threat of punishment expected upon errors. We found that separate populations of neurons in VS encode expected value and motivation. PMID:23724077

Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

Using Performance-Based Risk-Sharing Arrangements to Address Uncertainty in Indication-Based Pricing.

PubMed

Yeung, Kai; Li, Meng; Carlson, Josh J

2017-10-01

The rise in pharmaceutical expenditures in recent years has increased health care payer interest in ensuring good value for the money. Indication-based pricing (IBP) sets separate, indication-specific prices paid to the manufacturer according to the expected efficacy of a drug in each of its indications. IBP allows payers to consistently pay for value across indications. While promising, a limitation of IBP as originally conceived is that efficacy estimates are typically based on clinical trial data, which may differ from real-world effectiveness. An outcomes guarantee is a type of performance-based risk-sharing arrangement that adjusts payments according to prospectively tracked outcomes. We suggest that an outcomes guarantee contract, which has been used by some payers, may be adapted to achieve indication-based prices supported by real-world effectiveness. To illustrate the potential of an outcomes guarantee to achieve indication-based prices aligned with real-world value, using a case study of trastuzumab for the treatment of metastatic breast and advanced gastric cancers. We estimated costs and outcomes under traditional IBP (i.e., expected value IBP) and outcomes guarantee frameworks and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing treatment with and without trastuzumab. Efficacy data came from pivotal trials, whereas effectiveness data came from observational studies. We adjusted trastuzumab prices in order to achieve target ICERs of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year under each framework and for each indication. To achieve the ICER target under traditional IBP, the unit price of trastuzumab using efficacy evidence was adjusted for metastatic breast and advanced gastric cancers from an average sales price of $9.17 per mg to $3.50 per mg and $0.93 per mg, respectively. Under an outcomes guarantee, the unit price of trastuzumab using effectiveness evidence was adjusted for metastatic breast cancer and advanced gastric cancer to $8.66 per mg and $0.20 per mg, respectively. Like expected value IBP, outcomes guarantee contracts can also vary payment based on indication. In addition, an outcomes guarantee can also reduce uncertainty regarding effectiveness and better align payment with the actual value of a treatment. No funding supported this study. Carlson reports consulting fees from Genentech, Pfizer, and Seattle Genetics. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose. Study concept and design were contributed by Carlson, Yeung, and Li. Yeung, Carlson, and Li collected and analyzed the data. The manuscript was written primarily by Yeung, along with Carlson and Li, and revised by all the authors.

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

Dopamine Receptor-Specific Contributions to the Computation of Value.

PubMed

Burke, Christopher J; Soutschek, Alexander; Weber, Susanna; Raja Beharelle, Anjali; Fehr, Ernst; Haker, Helene; Tobler, Philippe N

2018-05-01

Dopamine is thought to play a crucial role in value-based decision making. However, the specific contributions of different dopamine receptor subtypes to the computation of subjective value remain unknown. Here we demonstrate how the balance between D1 and D2 dopamine receptor subtypes shapes subjective value computation during risky decision making. We administered the D2 receptor antagonist amisulpride or placebo before participants made choices between risky options. Compared with placebo, D2 receptor blockade resulted in more frequent choice of higher risk and higher expected value options. Using a novel model fitting procedure, we concurrently estimated the three parameters that define individual risk attitude according to an influential theoretical account of risky decision making (prospect theory). This analysis revealed that the observed reduction in risk aversion under amisulpride was driven by increased sensitivity to reward magnitude and decreased distortion of outcome probability, resulting in more linear value coding. Our data suggest that different components that govern individual risk attitude are under dopaminergic control, such that D2 receptor blockade facilitates risk taking and expected value processing.

Wind velocity-change (gust rise) criteria for wind turbine design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cliff, W.C.; Fichtl, G.H.

1978-07-01

A closed-form equation is derived for root mean square (rms) value of velocity change (gust rise) that occurs over the swept area of wind turbine rotor systems and an equation for rms value of velocity change that occurs at a single point in space. These formulas confirm the intuitive assumption that a large system will encounter a less severe environment than a small system when both are placed at the same location. Assuming a normal probability density function for the velocity differences, an equation is given for calculating the expected number of velocity differences that will occur in 1 hrmore » and will be larger than an arbitrary value. A formula is presented that gives the expected number of velocity differences larger than an arbitrary value that will be encountered during the design life of a wind turbine. In addition, a method for calculating the largest velocity difference expected during the life of a turbine and a formula for estimating the risk of exceeding a given velocity difference during the life of the structure are given. The equations presented are based upon general atmospheric boundary-layer conditions and do not include information regarding events such as tornados, hurricanes, etc.« less

Planning the FUSE Mission Using the SOVA Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lanzi, James; Heatwole, Scott; Ward, Philip R.; Civeit, Thomas; Calvani, Humberto; Kruk, Jeffrey W.; Suchkov, Anatoly

2011-01-01

Three documents discuss the Sustainable Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA) algorithm and software as used to plan tasks (principally, scientific observations and associated maneuvers) for the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite. SOVA is a means of managing risk in a complex system, based on a concept of computing the expected return value of a candidate ordered set of tasks as a product of pre-assigned task values and assessments of attainability made against qualitatively defined strategic objectives. For the FUSE mission, SOVA autonomously assembles a week-long schedule of target observations and associated maneuvers so as to maximize the expected scientific return value while keeping the satellite stable, managing the angular momentum of spacecraft attitude- control reaction wheels, and striving for other strategic objectives. A six-degree-of-freedom model of the spacecraft is used in simulating the tasks, and the attainability of a task is calculated at each step by use of strategic objectives as defined by use of fuzzy inference systems. SOVA utilizes a variant of a graph-search algorithm known as the A* search algorithm to assemble the tasks into a week-long target schedule, using the expected scientific return value to guide the search.

A bootstrap based space-time surveillance model with an application to crime occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Youngho; O'Kelly, Morton

2008-06-01

This study proposes a bootstrap-based space-time surveillance model. Designed to find emerging hotspots in near-real time, the bootstrap based model is characterized by its use of past occurrence information and bootstrap permutations. Many existing space-time surveillance methods, using population at risk data to generate expected values, have resulting hotspots bounded by administrative area units and are of limited use for near-real time applications because of the population data needed. However, this study generates expected values for local hotspots from past occurrences rather than population at risk. Also, bootstrap permutations of previous occurrences are used for significant tests. Consequently, the bootstrap-based model, without the requirement of population at risk data, (1) is free from administrative area restriction, (2) enables more frequent surveillance for continuously updated registry database, and (3) is readily applicable to criminology and epidemiology surveillance. The bootstrap-based model performs better for space-time surveillance than the space-time scan statistic. This is shown by means of simulations and an application to residential crime occurrences in Columbus, OH, year 2000.

Value of information in natural resource management: technical developments and application to pink-footed geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2015-01-01

The “value of information” (VOI) is a generic term for the increase in value resulting from better information to guide management, or alternatively, the value foregone under uncertainty about the impacts of management (Yokota and Thompson, Medical Decision Making 2004;24: 287). The value of information can be characterized in terms of several metrics, including the expected value of perfect information and the expected value of partial information. We extend the technical framework for the value of information by further developing the relationship between value metrics for partial and perfect information and describing patterns of their performance. We use two different expressions for the expected value of partial information to highlight its relationship to the expected value of perfect information. We also develop the expected value of partial information for hierarchical uncertainties. We highlight patterns in the value of information for the Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus), a population that is subject to uncertainty in both reproduction and survival functions. The framework for valuing information is seen as having widespread potential in resource decision making, and serves as a motivation for resource monitoring, assessment, and collaboration.

Can and should value-based pricing be applied to molecular diagnostics?

PubMed

Garau, Martina; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis; Housman, Laura; Ossa, Diego

2013-01-01

Current pricing and reimbursement systems for diagnostics are not efficient. Prices for diagnostics are often driven by administrative practices and expected production cost. The purpose of the paper is to discuss how a value-based pricing framework being used to ensure efficient use and price of medicines could also be applied to diagnostics. Diagnostics not only facilitates health gain and cost savings, but also information to guide patients' decisions on interventions and their future 'behaviors'. For value assessment processes we recommend a two-part approach. Companion diagnostics introduced at the launch of the drug should be assessed through new drug assessment processes considering a broad range of value elements and a balanced analysis of diagnostic impacts. A separate diagnostic-dedicated committee using value-based pricing principles should review other diagnostics lying outside the companion diagnostics-and-drug 'at-launch' situation.

Understanding Students' Motivation in Sport and Physical Education: From the Expectancy-Value Model and Self-Efficacy Theory Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Lee, Amelia M.; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

2008-01-01

In this article, the roles of individuals' expectancy beliefs and incentives (i.e., task value, outcome expectancy) in sport and physical education are examined from expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory perspectives. Overviews of the two theoretical frameworks and the conceptual and measurement issues are provided, followed by a review…

Identity-Specific Reward Representations in Orbitofrontal Cortex Are Modulated by Selective Devaluation

PubMed Central

Howard, James D.

2017-01-01

Goal-directed behavior is sensitive to the current value of expected outcomes. This requires independent representations of specific rewards, which have been linked to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) function. However, the mechanisms by which the human brain updates specific goals on the fly, and translates those updates into choices, have remained unknown. Here we implemented selective devaluation of appetizing food odors in combination with pattern-based neuroimaging and a decision-making task. We found that in a hungry state, participants chose to smell high-intensity versions of two value-matched food odor rewards. After eating a meal corresponding to one of the two odors, participants switched choices toward the low intensity of the sated odor but continued to choose the high intensity of the nonsated odor. This sensory-specific behavioral effect was mirrored by pattern-based changes in fMRI signal in lateral posterior OFC, where specific reward identity representations were altered after the meal for the sated food odor but retained for the nonsated counterpart. In addition, changes in functional connectivity between the OFC and general value coding in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) predicted individual differences in satiety-related choice behavior. These findings demonstrate how flexible representations of specific rewards in the OFC are updated by devaluation, and how functional connections to vmPFC reflect the current value of outcomes and guide goal-directed behavior. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is critical for goal-directed behavior. A recent proposal is that OFC fulfills this function by representing a variety of state and task variables (“cognitive maps”), including a conjunction of expected reward identity and value. Here we tested how identity-specific representations of food odor reward are updated by satiety. We found that fMRI pattern-based signatures of reward identity in lateral posterior OFC were modulated after selective devaluation, and that connectivity between this region and general value coding ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) predicted choice behavior. These results provide evidence for a mechanism by which devaluation modulates a cognitive map of expected reward in OFC and thereby alters general value signals in vmPFC to guide goal-directed behavior. PMID:28159906

Effects of expected-value information and display format on recognition of aircraft subsystem abnormalities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, Michael T.; Abbott, Kathy H.

1994-01-01

This study identifies improved methods to present system parameter information for detecting abnormal conditions and to identify system status. Two workstation experiments were conducted. The first experiment determined if including expected-value-range information in traditional parameter display formats affected subject performance. The second experiment determined if using a nontraditional parameter display format, which presented relative deviation from expected value, was better than traditional formats with expected-value ranges included. The inclusion of expected-value-range information onto traditional parameter formats was found to have essentially no effect. However, subjective results indicated support for including this information. The nontraditional column deviation parameter display format resulted in significantly fewer errors compared with traditional formats with expected-value-ranges included. In addition, error rates for the column deviation parameter display format remained stable as the scenario complexity increased, whereas error rates for the traditional parameter display formats with expected-value ranges increased. Subjective results also indicated that the subjects preferred this new format and thought that their performance was better with it. The column deviation parameter display format is recommended for display applications that require rapid recognition of out-of-tolerance conditions, especially for a large number of parameters.

Participation motives in physical education: an expectancy-value approach.

PubMed

Goudas, Marios; Dermitzaki, Irini

2004-12-01

This study applied an expectancy-value approach in examining participation motives of students in physical education. As predicted outcome expectancy, a variable formed by the combination of outcome value and outcome likelihood correlated significantly higher with motivational indices than these two factors.

Using the Expectancy-Value Theory of Motivation to Predict Behavioral and Emotional Risk among High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dever, Bridget V.

2016-01-01

Within the expectancy-value framework, much work has been done linking expectancies and task values to academic outcomes such as performance, persistence, and choice. Research on the associations between student motivation (including efficacy and task values) and behavioral and emotional problems, however, is nascent. The present study examined a…

The roles of federal legislation and evolving health care systems in promoting medical-dental collaboration.

PubMed

Edelstein, Burton L

2014-01-01

Recent federal health care legislation contains explicit and implicit drivers for medical-dental collaboration. These laws implicitly promote health care evolution through value-based financing, "big data" and health information technology, increased number of care providers and a more holistic approach. Additional changes--practice aggregation, consumerism and population health perspectives--may also influence dental care. While dentistry will likely lag behind medicine toward value-based and accountable care organizations, dentists will be affected by changing consumer expectations.

Detection and quantification system for monitoring instruments

DOEpatents

Dzenitis, John M [Danville, CA; Hertzog, Claudia K [Houston, TX; Makarewicz, Anthony J [Livermore, CA; Henderer, Bruce D [Livermore, CA; Riot, Vincent J [Oakland, CA

2008-08-12

A method of detecting real events by obtaining a set of recent signal results, calculating measures of the noise or variation based on the set of recent signal results, calculating an expected baseline value based on the set of recent signal results, determining sample deviation, calculating an allowable deviation by multiplying the sample deviation by a threshold factor, setting an alarm threshold from the baseline value plus or minus the allowable deviation, and determining whether the signal results exceed the alarm threshold.

The Expected Net Present Value of Developing Weight Management Drugs in the Context of Drug Safety Litigation.

PubMed

Chawla, Anita; Carls, Ginger; Deng, Edmund; Tuttle, Edward

2015-07-01

Following withdrawals, failures, and significant litigation settlements, drug product launches in the anti-obesity category slowed despite a large and growing unmet need. Litigation concerns, a more risk-averse regulatory policy, and the difficulty of developing a product with a compelling risk-benefit profile in this category may have limited innovators' expected return on investment and restricted investment in this therapeutic area. The objective of the study was to estimate perceived manufacturer risk associated with product safety litigation and increased development costs vs. revenue expectations on anticipated return on investment and to determine which scenarios might change a manufacturer's investment decision. Expected net present value of a weight-management drug entering pre-clinical trials was calculated for a range of scenarios representing evolving expectations of development costs, revenue, and litigation risk over the past 25 years. These three factors were based on published estimates, historical data, and analogs from other therapeutic areas. The main driver in expected net present value calculations is expected revenue, particularly if one assumes that litigation risk and demand are positively correlated. Changes in development costs associated with increased regulatory concern with potential safety issues for the past 25 years likely did not impact investment decisions. Regulatory policy and litigation risk both played a role in anti-obesity drug development; however, product revenue-reflecting efficacy at acceptable levels of safety-was by far the most important factor. To date, relatively modest sales associated with recent product introductions suggest that developing a product that is sufficiently efficacious with an acceptable level of safety continues to be the primary challenge in this market.

Children's probability intuitions: understanding the expected value of complex gambles.

PubMed

Schlottmann, A

2001-01-01

Two experiments used Information Integration Theory to study how children judge expected value of complex gambles in which alternative outcomes have different prizes. Six-year-olds, 9-year-olds and adults (N = 73 in Study 1, N = 28 in Study 2) saw chance games that involved shaking a marble in a bicolored tube. One prize was won if the marble stopped on blue, another if it stopped on yellow. Children judged how happy a puppet playing the game would be, with the prizes and probability of the blue and yellow outcomes varied factorially. Three main results appeared in both studies: First, participants in all age groups used the normatively prescribed multiplication rule for integrating probability and value of each individual outcome--a striking finding because multiplicative reasoning does not usually appear before 8 years of age in other domains. Second, all age groups based judgment of overall expected value meaningfully on both alternative outcomes, but there were individual differences--many participants deviated from the normative addition rule, showing risk seeking and risk averse patterns of judgment similar to the risk attitudes often found with adults. Third, even the youngest children took probability to be an abstract rather than physical property of the game. Overall, in contrast to the traditional view, the present results demonstrate functional understanding of probability and expected value in children as young as 5 or 6. These results contribute to the growing evidence on children's intuitive reasoning competence. This intuition can, on the one hand, support surprisingly precocious performance in young children, but it may also contribute to the biases evident in adults' judgment and decision.

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

Why Contextual Preference Reversals Maximize Expected Value

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Contextual preference reversals occur when a preference for one option over another is reversed by the addition of further options. It has been argued that the occurrence of preference reversals in human behavior shows that people violate the axioms of rational choice and that people are not, therefore, expected value maximizers. In contrast, we demonstrate that if a person is only able to make noisy calculations of expected value and noisy observations of the ordinal relations among option features, then the expected value maximizing choice is influenced by the addition of new options and does give rise to apparent preference reversals. We explore the implications of expected value maximizing choice, conditioned on noisy observations, for a range of contextual preference reversal types—including attraction, compromise, similarity, and phantom effects. These preference reversal types have played a key role in the development of models of human choice. We conclude that experiments demonstrating contextual preference reversals are not evidence for irrationality. They are, however, a consequence of expected value maximization given noisy observations. PMID:27337391

The neural correlates of risky decision making across short and long runs

PubMed Central

Rao, Li-Lin; Dunn, John C.; Zhou, Yuan; Li, Shu

2015-01-01

People frequently change their preferences for options of gambles which they play once compared to those they play multiple times. In general, preferences for repeated play gambles are more consistent with the expected values of the options. According to the one-process view, the change in preference is due to a change in the structure of the gamble that is relevant to decision making. According to the two-process view, the change is attributable to a shift in the decision making strategy that is used. To adjudicate between these two theories, we asked participants to choose between gambles played once or 100 times, and to choose between them based on their expected value. Consistent with the two-process theory, we found a set of brain regions that were sensitive to the extent of behavioral change between single and aggregated play and also showed significant (de)activation in the expected value choice task. These results support the view that people change their decision making strategies for risky choice considered once or multiple times. PMID:26516095

A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei

2017-11-01

Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

More Value through Greater Differentiation: Gender Differences in Value Beliefs about Math

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaspard, Hanna; Dicke, Anna-Lena; Flunger, Barbara; Schreier, Brigitte; Häfner, Isabelle; Trautwein, Ulrich; Nagengast, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983) is a prominent approach to explaining gender differences in math-related academic choices, with value beliefs acting as an important explanatory factor. Expectancy-value theory defines 4 value components: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, and cost. The present study followed up on…

Method of Calibrating a Force Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Peter A. (Inventor); Rhew, Ray D. (Inventor); Johnson, Thomas H. (Inventor); Landman, Drew (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A calibration system and method utilizes acceleration of a mass to generate a force on the mass. An expected value of the force is calculated based on the magnitude and acceleration of the mass. A fixture is utilized to mount the mass to a force balance, and the force balance is calibrated to provide a reading consistent with the expected force determined for a given acceleration. The acceleration can be varied to provide different expected forces, and the force balance can be calibrated for different applied forces. The acceleration may result from linear acceleration of the mass or rotational movement of the mass.

Developmental changes and gender effects on motivational constructs based on the expectancy-value model in Czech and United States students regarding learning of science, mathematics, and other subjects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Eun-Mi

This study employed American and Czech student samples to investigate the motivational constructs used in Eccles and Wigfield's (1983) expectancy-value model. To predict achievement behavior, the model specifies relationships among expectancy for-success and task value, task-specific self-concept, perception of task-difficulty, perceptions of social environment, and interpretations and attributions for past events in relation to the social world. Czech and American students (n = 1,145) in grades 4--12 were the participants in this study. The causal relationships among the constructs were tested to investigate structural similarities and differences in the models for both countries. This study also explored developmental changes, gender, and national differences in the students' motivational beliefs for these motivational constructs: Expectancy for Success, Intrinsic Interest Value, Task-specific Self-concept, Perception of Task-difficulty, and Perceived Vocational Gender Dominance for science, mathematics, and other school subjects. The findings indicated that, for both countries, with respect to changes over grade level, compared to the younger students, the older students showed lower motivational beliefs for most subject areas except reading. However, the Czech students in grades 6--8 showed more positive motivational beliefs in life science and social studies than did the Czech students in other grade levels. In comparing genders, the male students exhibited more positive motivational beliefs in physical science than did the female students, and female students showed more positive motivational beliefs in reading than did the male students. For life science, the Czech female students rated Intrinsic Interest Value and Task-specific Self-concept higher than did their peer male students. The American students' motivational beliefs in reading were more positive than were Czech students', and the Czech students held more positive motivational beliefs in life science than did the American students. With minor variations for each country, the expectancy-value model provided a reasonable tool for understanding the causal relationships among the motivational beliefs. For the Czech sample, Perception of Task-difficulty was a strong negative predictor for Expectancy for Success for most school subjects except life science whereas, for the American sample, it was a weak but significant negative predictor for Intrinsic Interest Value for most school subjects except social studies. Implications for science education are discussed.

Expectations and Values of University Students in Transition: Evidence from an Australian Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearson, Cecil A. L.; Chatterjee, Samir R.

2004-01-01

Reforms in the functioning and purpose of higher education during the past 2 decades have created profound changes in the expectations and values of university students worldwide. Indeed, the values of entrepreneurship, vocational relevance, and commercial success have considerably displaced the traditional expectations of knowledge acquisition…

College Students' Motivation toward Weight Training: An Application of Expectancy-Value Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping

2008-01-01

Guided by an expectancy-value model of achievement choice (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), the relationships among expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values (importance, interest, and usefulness), and achievement outcomes (intention, engagement, and performance) were examined in a college-level beginning weight training…

Content Specificity of Expectancy Beliefs and Task Values in Elementary Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Ang; Martin, Robert; Ennis, Catherine D.; Sun, Haichun

2008-01-01

The curriculum may superimpose a content-specific context that mediates motivation (Bong, 2001). This study examined content specificity of the expectancy-value motivation in elementary school physical education. Students' expectancy beliefs and perceived task values from a cardiorespiratory fitness unit, a muscular fitness unit, and a traditional…

Adolescent Expectancy-Value Motivation, Achievement in Physical Education, and Physical Activity Participation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Xihe; Chen, Ang

2013-01-01

This study examined the relation between adolescent expectancy-value motivation, achievements, and after-school physical activity participation. Adolescents (N = 854) from 12 middle schools completed an expectancy-value motivation questionnaire, pre and posttests in psychomotor skill and health-related fitness knowledge tests, and a three-day…

Expect the unexpected: place-based protections can lead to unforeseen benefits

Treesearch

Rebecca L. Flitcroft; Daniel L. Bottom; Karen L. Haberman; Ken F. Bierly; Kim K. Jones; Charles A. Simenstad; Ayesha Gray; Kami S. Ellingson; Erin Baumgartner; Trevan J. Cornwell; Lance A. Campbell

2016-01-01

1. Protection of places important for aesthetic, ecological, and cultural values has been a goal of conservationists for over 150 years. Cornerstones of place-based conservation include legal designations, international agreements, and purchase by public or non-profit organizations.2. In the Salmon River catchment, Oregon, protections were initially...

Scalar field vacuum expectation value induced by gravitational wave background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Preston; McDougall, Patrick; Ragsdale, Michael; Singleton, Douglas

2018-06-01

We show that a massless scalar field in a gravitational wave background can develop a non-zero vacuum expectation value. We draw comparisons to the generation of a non-zero vacuum expectation value for a scalar field in the Higgs mechanism and with the dynamical Casimir vacuum. We propose that this vacuum expectation value, generated by a gravitational wave, can be connected with particle production from gravitational waves and may have consequences for the early Universe where scalar fields are thought to play an important role.

Evaluating Expected Costs and Benefits of Granting Access to New Treatments on the Basis of Progression-Free Survival in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Lakdawalla, Darius N; Chou, Jacquelyn W; Linthicum, Mark T; MacEwan, Joanna P; Zhang, Jie; Goldman, Dana P

2015-05-01

Surrogate end points may be used as proxy for more robust clinical end points. One prominent example is the use of progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in trials for oncologic treatments. Decisions based on surrogate end points may expedite regulatory approval but may not accurately reflect drug efficacy. Payers and clinicians must balance the potential benefits of earlier treatment access based on surrogate end points against the risks of clinical uncertainty. To present a framework for evaluating the expected net benefit or cost of providing early access to new treatments on the basis of evidence of PFS benefits before OS results are available, using non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) as an example. A probabilistic decision model was used to estimate expected incremental social value of the decision to grant access to a new treatment on the basis of PFS evidence. The model analyzed a hypothetical population of patients with NSCLC who could be treated during the period between PFS and OS evidence publication. Estimates for delay in publication of OS evidence following publication of PFS evidence, expected OS benefit given PFS benefit, incremental cost of new treatment, and other parameters were drawn from the literature on treatment of NSCLC. Incremental social value of early access for each additional patient per month (in 2014 US dollars). For "medium-value" model parameters, early reimbursement of drugs with any PFS benefit yields an incremental social cost of more than $170,000 per newly treated patient per month. In contrast, granting early access on the basis of PFS benefit between 1 and 3.5 months produces more than $73,000 in incremental social value. Across the full range of model parameter values, granting access for drugs with PFS benefit between 3 and 3.5 months is robustly beneficial, generating incremental social value ranging from $38,000 to more than $1 million per newly treated patient per month, whereas access for all drugs with any PFS benefit is usually not beneficial. The value of providing access to new treatments on the basis of surrogate end points, and PFS in particular, likely varies considerably. Payers and clinicians should carefully consider how to use PFS data in balancing potential benefits against costs in each particular disease.

A refined 'standard' thermal model for asteroids based on observations of 1 Ceres and 2 Pallas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lebofsky, Larry A.; Sykes, Mark V.; Tedesco, Edward F.; Veeder, Glenn J.; Matson, Dennis L.

1986-01-01

An analysis of ground-based thermal IR observations of 1 Ceres and 2 Pallas in light of their recently determined occultation diameters and small amplitude light curves has yielded a new value for the IR beaming parameter employed in the standard asteroid thermal emission model which is significantly lower than the previous one. When applied to the reduction of thermal IR observations of other asteroids, this new value is expected to yield model diameters closer to actual values. The present formulation incorporates the IAU magnitude convention for asteroids that employs zero-phase magnitudes, including the opposition effect.

A framework for estimating health state utility values within a discrete choice experiment: modeling risky choices.

PubMed

Robinson, Angela; Spencer, Anne; Moffatt, Peter

2015-04-01

There has been recent interest in using the discrete choice experiment (DCE) method to derive health state utilities for use in quality-adjusted life year (QALY) calculations, but challenges remain. We set out to develop a risk-based DCE approach to derive utility values for health states that allowed 1) utility values to be anchored directly to normal health and death and 2) worse than dead health states to be assessed in the same manner as better than dead states. Furthermore, we set out to estimate alternative models of risky choice within a DCE model. A survey was designed that incorporated a risk-based DCE and a "modified" standard gamble (SG). Health state utility values were elicited for 3 EQ-5D health states assuming "standard" expected utility (EU) preferences. The DCE model was then generalized to allow for rank-dependent expected utility (RDU) preferences, thereby allowing for probability weighting. A convenience sample of 60 students was recruited and data collected in small groups. Under the assumption of "standard" EU preferences, the utility values derived within the DCE corresponded fairly closely to the mean results from the modified SG. Under the assumption of RDU preferences, the utility values estimated are somewhat lower than under the assumption of standard EU, suggesting that the latter may be biased upward. Applying the correct model of risky choice is important whether a modified SG or a risk-based DCE is deployed. It is, however, possible to estimate a probability weighting function within a DCE and estimate "unbiased" utility values directly, which is not possible within a modified SG. We conclude by setting out the relative strengths and weaknesses of the 2 approaches in this context. © The Author(s) 2014.

The management of patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Johnston, Calvin F; Tomlinson, George; Temple, Larissa K; Baxter, Nancy N

2013-04-01

Decision making for patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum, when treatment options are limited to a transanal local excision or abdominoperineal resection, is challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a contemporary decision analysis to assist patients and clinicians in balancing the goals of maximizing life expectancy and quality of life in this situation. We constructed a Markov-type microsimulation in open-source software. Recurrence rates and quality-of-life parameters were elicited by systematic literature reviews. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key model parameters. Our base case for analysis was a 65-year-old man with low-lying T1N0 rectal cancer. We determined the sensitivity of our model for sex, age up to 80, and T stage. The main outcome measured was quality-adjusted life-years. In the base case, selecting transanal local excision over abdominoperineal resection resulted in a loss of 0.53 years of life expectancy but a gain of 0.97 quality-adjusted life-years. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated a health state utility value threshold for permanent colostomy of 0.93. This value ranged from 0.88 to 1.0 based on tumor recurrence risk. There were no other model sensitivities. Some model parameter estimates were based on weak data. In our model, transanal local excision was found to be the preferable approach for most patients. An abdominoperineal resection has a 3.5% longer life expectancy, but this advantage is lost when the quality-of-life reduction reported by stoma patients is weighed in. The minority group in whom abdominoperineal resection is preferred are those who are unwilling to sacrifice 7% of their life expectancy to avoid a permanent stoma. This is estimated to be approximately 25% of all patients. The threshold increases to 12% of life expectancy in high-risk tumors. No other factors are found to be relevant to the decision.

Expected Utility Based Decision Making under Z-Information and Its Application.

PubMed

Aliev, Rashad R; Mraiziq, Derar Atallah Talal; Huseynov, Oleg H

2015-01-01

Real-world decision relevant information is often partially reliable. The reasons are partial reliability of the source of information, misperceptions, psychological biases, incompetence, and so forth. Z-numbers based formalization of information (Z-information) represents a natural language (NL) based value of a variable of interest in line with the related NL based reliability. What is important is that Z-information not only is the most general representation of real-world imperfect information but also has the highest descriptive power from human perception point of view as compared to fuzzy number. In this study, we present an approach to decision making under Z-information based on direct computation over Z-numbers. This approach utilizes expected utility paradigm and is applied to a benchmark decision problem in the field of economics.

Left ventricular assist device as destination therapy: application of the payment-by-results approach for the device reimbursement.

PubMed

Messori, Andrea; Trippoli, Sabrina; Bonacchi, Massimo; Sani, Guido

2009-08-01

Value-based methods are increasingly used to reimburse therapeutic innovation, and the payment-by-results approach has been proposed for handling interventions with limited therapeutic evidence. Because most left ventricular assist devices are supported by preliminary efficacy data, we examined the effectiveness data of the HeartMate (Thoratec Corp, Pleasanton, CA) device to explore the application of the payment-by-results approach to these devices and to develop a model for handling reimbursements. According to our model, after establishing the societal economic countervalue for each month of life saved, each patient treated with one such device is associated to the payment of this countervalue for every month of survival lived beyond the final date of estimated life expectancy without left ventricular assist devices. Our base-case analysis, which used the published data of 68 patients who received the HeartMate device, was run with a monthly countervalue of euro 5000, no adjustment for quality of life, and a baseline life expectancy of 150 days without left ventricular assist devices. Sensitivity analysis was aimed at testing the effect of quality of life adjustments and changes in life expectancy without device. In our base-case analysis, the mean total reimbursement per patient was euro 82,426 (range, euro 0 to euro 250,000; N = 68) generated as the sum of monthly payments. This average value was close to the current price of the HeartMate device (euro 75,000). Sensitivity testing showed that the base-case reimbursement of euro 82,426 was little influenced by variations in life expectancy, whereas variations in utility had a more pronounced impact. Our report delineates an innovative procedure for appropriately allocating economic resources in this area of invasive cardiology.

Innovation in diagnostic imaging services: assessing the potential for value-based reimbursement.

PubMed

Garrison, Louis P; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Hollingworth, William; Jarvik, Jeffrey G

2011-09-01

Innovation in the field of diagnostic imaging is based primarily on the availability of new and improved equipment that opens the door for new clinical applications. Payments for these imaging procedures are subject to complex Medicare price control schemes, affecting incentives for appropriate use and innovation. Achieving a "dynamically efficient" health care system-one that elicits a socially optimal amount of innovation-requires that innovators be rewarded in relation to the value they add and can demonstrate with evidence. The authors examine how and whether value-based reimbursement for diagnostic imaging services might better reward innovation explicitly for expected improvements in health and economic outcomes. Copyright © 2011 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Achievement, Motivation, and Educational Choices: A Longitudinal Study of Expectancy and Value Using a Multiplicative Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guo, Jiesi; Parker, Philip D.; Marsh, Herbert W.; Morin, Alexandre J. S.

2015-01-01

Drawing on the expectancy-value model, the present study explored individual and gender differences in university entry and selection of educational pathway (e.g., science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [STEM] course selection). In particular, we examined the multiplicative effects of expectancy and task values on educational outcomes…

Adolescent Expectancy-Value Motivation and Learning: A Disconnected Case in Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Xihe; Chen, Ang

2010-01-01

This study reports adolescent expectancy-value motivation, and its relation to fitness knowledge and psychomotor skill learning in physical education. Students (N = 854) from 12 middle schools provided data on expectancy-value motivation, fitness knowledge and psychomotor skill learning. Results from dependent t-test and MANOVA indicated that 8th…

Expectancy-Value and Cognitive Process Outcomes in Mathematics Learning: A Structural Equation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phan, Huy P.

2014-01-01

Existing research has yielded evidence to indicate that the expectancy-value theoretical model predicts students' learning in various achievement contexts. Achievement values and self-efficacy expectations, for example, have been found to exert positive effects on cognitive process and academic achievement outcomes. We tested a conceptual model…

Children's Perceived Cost for Exercise: Application of an Expectancy-Value Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiang, Evelyn S.; Byrd, Sandra P.; Molin, Ashley J.

2011-01-01

Expectancy-value models of motivation have been applied to understanding children's choices in areas such as academics and sports. Here, an expectancy-value paradigm is applied to exercising (defined as engaging in physical activity). The notion of perceived cost is highlighted in particular. Two hundred twenty children in third, fourth, and fifth…

Ninth Graders' Energy Balance Knowledge and Physical Activity Behavior: An Expectancy-Value Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Senlin; Chen, Ang

2012-01-01

Expectancy beliefs and task values are two essential motivators in physical education. This study was designed to identify the relation between the expectancy-value constructs (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995) and high school students' physical activity behavior as associated with their energy balance knowledge. High school students (N = 195) in two…

Measurement Invariance of Expectancy-Value Questionnaire in Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Xihe; Sun, Haichun; Chen, Ang; Ennis, Catherine

2012-01-01

Expectancy-Value Questionnaire (EVQ) measures student expectancy beliefs and task values of the domain content (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995). In this study the authors examine measurement invariance of EVQ in the domain of physical education between elementary and middle-school students. Participants included 811 students (3rd-5th grades) from 13…

Adolescents' Expectancies for Success and Achievement Task Values during the Middle and High School Years.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wigfield, Allan; Tonks, Stephen

This chapter discusses the development of achievement motivation during adolescence from the perspective of expectancy-value theory, and explains how adolescents' expectancies for success and achievement values change during adolescence, particularly during educational transitions such as that from elementary to middle school and from middle to…

Strain hardening in startup shear of long-chain branched polymer solutions.

PubMed

Liu, Gengxin; Cheng, Shiwang; Lee, Hyojoon; Ma, Hongwei; Xu, Hongde; Chang, Taihyun; Quirk, Roderic P; Wang, Shi-Qing

2013-08-09

We show for the first time that entangled polymeric liquids containing long-chain branching can exhibit strain hardening upon startup shear. As the significant long-chain branching impedes chain disentanglement, Gaussian coils between entanglements can deform to reach the finite extensibility limit where the intrachain retraction force exceeds the value expected from the usual conformational entropy loss evaluated based on Gaussian chain statistics. The phenomenon is expected to lead to further theoretical understanding.

Stochastic satisficing account of confidence in uncertain value-based decisions

PubMed Central

Bahrami, Bahador; Keramati, Mehdi

2018-01-01

Every day we make choices under uncertainty; choosing what route to work or which queue in a supermarket to take, for example. It is unclear how outcome variance, e.g. uncertainty about waiting time in a queue, affects decisions and confidence when outcome is stochastic and continuous. How does one evaluate and choose between an option with unreliable but high expected reward, and an option with more certain but lower expected reward? Here we used an experimental design where two choices’ payoffs took continuous values, to examine the effect of outcome variance on decision and confidence. We found that our participants’ probability of choosing the good (high expected reward) option decreased when the good or the bad options’ payoffs were more variable. Their confidence ratings were affected by outcome variability, but only when choosing the good option. Unlike perceptual detection tasks, confidence ratings correlated only weakly with decisions’ time, but correlated with the consistency of trial-by-trial choices. Inspired by the satisficing heuristic, we propose a “stochastic satisficing” (SSAT) model for evaluating options with continuous uncertain outcomes. In this model, options are evaluated by their probability of exceeding an acceptability threshold, and confidence reports scale with the chosen option’s thus-defined satisficing probability. Participants’ decisions were best explained by an expected reward model, while the SSAT model provided the best prediction of decision confidence. We further tested and verified the predictions of this model in a second experiment. Our model and experimental results generalize the models of metacognition from perceptual detection tasks to continuous-value based decisions. Finally, we discuss how the stochastic satisficing account of decision confidence serves psychological and social purposes associated with the evaluation, communication and justification of decision-making. PMID:29621325

Expectancy-Value and Children's Science Achievement: Parents Matter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Julie A.; Strunk, Kamden K.

2017-01-01

This longitudinal study explored the ways parents' and teachers' expectancy for success influences 3rd-5th children's expectancy for success and achievement in science. Guided by an open-systems perspective and functional (Ballantine & Roberts, 2007) and expectancy-value (Eccles, 2005, 2007) theories, we focused on school related socialization…

Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Kenji; Hsu, Ming

2017-07-19

Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376972-11$15.00/0.

Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. PMID:28626019

Expectancy-value theory in persistence of learning effects in schizophrenia: role of task value and perceived competency.

PubMed

Choi, Jimmy; Fiszdon, Joanna M; Medalia, Alice

2010-09-01

Expectancy-value theory, a widely accepted model of motivation, posits that expectations of success on a learning task and the individual value placed on the task are central determinants of motivation to learn. This is supported by research in healthy controls suggesting that beliefs of self-and-content mastery can be so influential they can predict the degree of improvement on challenging cognitive tasks even more so than general cognitive ability. We examined components of expectancy-value theory (perceived competency and task value), along with baseline arithmetic performance and neuropsychological performance, as possible predictors of learning outcome in a sample of 70 outpatients with schizophrenia randomized to 1 of 2 different arithmetic learning conditions and followed up after 3 months. Results indicated that as with nonpsychiatric samples, perceived self-competency for the learning task was significantly related to perceptions of task value attributed to the learning task. Baseline expectations of success predicted persistence of learning on the task at 3-month follow-up, even after accounting for variance attributable to different arithmetic instruction, baseline arithmetic ability, attention, and self-reports of task interest and task value. We also found that expectation of success is a malleable construct, with posttraining improvements persisting at follow-up. These findings support the notion that expectancy-value theory is operative in schizophrenia. Thus, similar to the nonpsychiatric population, treatment benefits may be enhanced and better maintained if remediation programs also focus on perceptions of self-competency for the training tasks. Treatment issues related to instilling self-efficacy in cognitive recovery programs are discussed.

Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

E. Borgonovo; C. L. Smith

2012-10-01

Risk Achievement Worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We obtain the conditions under which the equality holds between the nominal and expected values of a reliability riskmore » metric. Among these conditions, separability and state-of-knowledge independence emerge. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty aspects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.« less

Motivational beliefs, values, and goals.

PubMed

Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Wigfield, Allan

2002-01-01

This chapter reviews the recent research on motivation, beliefs, values, and goals, focusing on developmental and educational psychology. The authors divide the chapter into four major sections: theories focused on expectancies for success (self-efficacy theory and control theory), theories focused on task value (theories focused on intrinsic motivation, self-determination, flow, interest, and goals), theories that integrate expectancies and values (attribution theory, the expectancy-value models of Eccles et al., Feather, and Heckhausen, and self-worth theory), and theories integrating motivation and cognition (social cognitive theories of self-regulation and motivation, the work by Winne & Marx, Borkowski et al., Pintrich et al., and theories of motivation and volition). The authors end the chapter with a discussion of how to integrate theories of self-regulation and expectancy-value models of motivation and suggest new directions for future research.

Is Recess an Achievement Context? An Application of Expectancy-Value Theory to Playground Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer-Cavaliere, Nancy; Dunn, Janice Causgrove; Watkinson, E. Jane

2009-01-01

This study investigated the application of an expectancy-value model to children's activity choices on the playground at recess. The purpose was to test the prediction that expectancies for success and subjective task values are related to decisions to engage in specific recess activities such as climbing, playing soccer, or skipping rope.…

Frame of Reference Effects on Values in Mathematics: Evidence from German Secondary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cambria, Jenna; Brandt, Holger; Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich

2017-01-01

Expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation identifies two classes of beliefs that are important predictors of educational choices and achievement: expectancies and values. It is well known that high achieving peers can have a negative impact on self-concept and other measures of expected success: holding individual achievement constant,…

Using Gaming To Help Nursing Students Understand Ethics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Metcalf, Barbara L.; Yankou, Dawn

2003-01-01

An ethics game involves nursing students in defending actions in ethics-based scenarios. Benefits include increased confidence, ability to see multiple perspectives, values clarification, and exposure to decision-making models, professional responsibilities, ethical principles, social expectations, and legal requirements. Difficulties include…

Achievement Motivation among Urban Adolescents: Work Hope, Autonomy Support, and Achievement-Related Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenny, Maureen E.; Walsh-Blair, Lynn Y.; Blustein, David L.; Bempechat, Janine; Seltzer, Joanne

2010-01-01

Drawing upon expectancy value, hope, and self-determination theories, this study explores the contributions of work-based beliefs and autonomy support as predictors of adaptive achievement-related beliefs. Two hundred and one urban high school students who were enrolled in a work-based learning program completed measures of work hope, autonomy…

The Development of an Attribution-Based Theory of Motivation: A History of Ideas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiner, Bernard

2010-01-01

The history of ideas guiding the development of an attribution-based theory of motivation is presented. These influences include the search for a "grand" theory of motivation (from drive and expectancy/value theory), an attempt to represent how the past may influence the present and the future (as Thorndike accomplished), and the…

Optimising Inter-Disciplinary Problem-Based Learning in Postgraduate Environmental and Science Education: Recommendations from a Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redshaw, Clare H; Frampton, Ian

2014-01-01

As the value of multi-disciplinary working in the business and research worlds is becoming more recognised, the number of inter-disciplinary postgraduate environmental and health sciences courses is also increasing. Equally, the popularity of problem-based learning (PBL) is expected to grow and influence instructional approaches in many…

Determinants of willingness to pay taxes for a community-based prevention programme.

PubMed

Lindholm, L A; Rosén, M E; Stenbeck, M E

1997-06-01

Prevention can reduce the risk of disease, but has other consequences as well. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) is one method to analyse these multi-dimensional consequences, if the stated WTP is assumed to be a function of all the expected positive and negative effects perceived. An interview study of a community-based cardiovascular disease prevention programme in northern Sweden shows that expectations regarding reduced mortality in the community and future savings in public health care spending increase the perceived value of the programme. Among personal benefits, decreased disease risk was not positively associated with WTP, while a low level of anxiety was.

Beyond Strength: Participant Perspectives on the Benefits of an Older Adult Exercise Program.

PubMed

Kohn, Marlana; Belza, Basia; Petrescu-Prahova, Miruna; Miyawaki, Christina E

2016-06-01

This study examines the expected and experienced benefits among participants in Enhance®Fitness (EF), an evidence-based group physical activity program for older adults. We also describe the implications for program dissemination (reach, implementation, and maintenance) within the RE-AIM (reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation, and maintenance) framework. Twenty semistructured interviews were conducted with EF participants enrolled from 2005 to 2012. Interviews were digitally recorded, professionally transcribed, and analyzed using a deductive approach. Participants were motivated to join EF for expected physical benefits and the social environment of a group-based class. Actualized benefits of participation included physical, social, functional, and improved self-image/sense of well-being. Participants valued the practical application of class exercises to daily activities that support independent living, such as lifting objects and completing household chores. Organizations looking to implement EF or improve existing EF classes can improve program reach, implementation, and maintenance by incorporating participants' expressed motivations and valued benefits in program marketing and by improving organizational support to meet participant needs. EF class instructors can tailor their classes to engage participants based on their motivations. Understanding participants' motivations and valued benefits can improve EF dissemination by meeting participant needs with tailored class offerings and organizational needs informed by participant insights that aid program sustainability. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.

Phylogenetic diversity, functional trait diversity and extinction: avoiding tipping points and worst-case losses

PubMed Central

Faith, Daniel P.

2015-01-01

The phylogenetic diversity measure, (‘PD’), measures the relative feature diversity of different subsets of taxa from a phylogeny. At the level of feature diversity, PD supports the broad goal of biodiversity conservation to maintain living variation and option values. PD calculations at the level of lineages and features include those integrating probabilities of extinction, providing estimates of expected PD. This approach has known advantages over the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) methods. Expected PD methods also have limitations. An alternative notion of expected diversity, expected functional trait diversity, relies on an alternative non-phylogenetic model and allows inferences of diversity at the level of functional traits. Expected PD also faces challenges in helping to address phylogenetic tipping points and worst-case PD losses. Expected PD may not choose conservation options that best avoid worst-case losses of long branches from the tree of life. We can expand the range of useful calculations based on expected PD, including methods for identifying phylogenetic key biodiversity areas. PMID:25561672

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

PubMed

Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

2018-02-01

There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

Expectations of millennial nurse graduates transitioning into practice.

PubMed

Andrews, Diane Randall

2013-01-01

Identified as Millennials, nurses born after 1980 are anticipated to redefine the employer-employee relationship as one based on the employee's wants and needs. The purpose of this study is to portray the expectations of Millennial student nurses immediately before graduation. Understanding these expectations may provide insight for leaders who are responsible for crafting a successful transition experience. Successful transition and decreased turnover are important elements of cost management for the nursing enterprise. A qualitative descriptive design was used to collect data from 14 students enrolled in a traditional BSN academic nursing program approximately 2 months prior to graduation. Upon completion of private, confidential semistructured interviews, data were transcribed, coded, and analyzed. Demographic data were compiled and interview data summarized according to identified themes. Three overarching themes emerged: the expectation that transition would be stressful, the expectation that there would be a safety net of support, and the expectation to be valued and respected as a professional. Revealing was the expectation of supportive relationships and a collaborative approach to patient care. Failure to meet those expectations may result in turnover as Millennials seek opportunities that meet their expectations.

Identity-Specific Reward Representations in Orbitofrontal Cortex Are Modulated by Selective Devaluation.

PubMed

Howard, James D; Kahnt, Thorsten

2017-03-08

Goal-directed behavior is sensitive to the current value of expected outcomes. This requires independent representations of specific rewards, which have been linked to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) function. However, the mechanisms by which the human brain updates specific goals on the fly, and translates those updates into choices, have remained unknown. Here we implemented selective devaluation of appetizing food odors in combination with pattern-based neuroimaging and a decision-making task. We found that in a hungry state, participants chose to smell high-intensity versions of two value-matched food odor rewards. After eating a meal corresponding to one of the two odors, participants switched choices toward the low intensity of the sated odor but continued to choose the high intensity of the nonsated odor. This sensory-specific behavioral effect was mirrored by pattern-based changes in fMRI signal in lateral posterior OFC, where specific reward identity representations were altered after the meal for the sated food odor but retained for the nonsated counterpart. In addition, changes in functional connectivity between the OFC and general value coding in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) predicted individual differences in satiety-related choice behavior. These findings demonstrate how flexible representations of specific rewards in the OFC are updated by devaluation, and how functional connections to vmPFC reflect the current value of outcomes and guide goal-directed behavior. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is critical for goal-directed behavior. A recent proposal is that OFC fulfills this function by representing a variety of state and task variables ("cognitive maps"), including a conjunction of expected reward identity and value. Here we tested how identity-specific representations of food odor reward are updated by satiety. We found that fMRI pattern-based signatures of reward identity in lateral posterior OFC were modulated after selective devaluation, and that connectivity between this region and general value coding ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) predicted choice behavior. These results provide evidence for a mechanism by which devaluation modulates a cognitive map of expected reward in OFC and thereby alters general value signals in vmPFC to guide goal-directed behavior. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/372627-12$15.00/0.

Maternity care: a narrative overview of what women expect across their care continuum.

PubMed

Clark, Kim; Beatty, Shelley; Reibel, Tracy

2015-04-01

to provide a narrative overview of the values schema underpinning women׳s expectations of public maternity-care services using an episodes-of-care framework. focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews were undertaken with Western Australian women who had opted for public maternity care to determine the values schema apparent in their expectations of their care. public maternity-care services in metropolitan (i.e. Armadale, Osborne Park and Rockingham) and regional (i.e. Broome, Geraldton, Bunbury) Western Australia. women interviewed were found to have consistent values schema underpinning their maternity-care expectations and evaluations. the current study suggests that while women׳s choices and experiences of maternity care may differ on a range of dimensions, the values schema underlying their care expectations and subsequent evaluations are similar. The study findings resonate with past Australian research regarding women׳s expectations of public maternity care, but complement it by providing a coherent narrative of core underpinning stage-specific values schema. These may assist maternity-care policy makers, practitioners and researchers seeking to better understand and comprehensively respond to women׳s maternity-care expectations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

26 CFR 1.170A-12 - Valuation of a remainder interest in real property for contributions made after July 31, 1969.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... expected useful life of 45 years, at the end of which time it is expected to have a value of $10,000, and... is $50,000 (the value of the house ($60,000) less its expected value at the end of 45 years ($10,000... section. If the remainder interest that has been contributed follows a term for years, the value of the...

26 CFR 1.170A-12 - Valuation of a remainder interest in real property for contributions made after July 31, 1969.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... expected useful life of 45 years, at the end of which time it is expected to have a value of $10,000, and... is $50,000 (the value of the house ($60,000) less its expected value at the end of 45 years ($10,000... section. If the remainder interest that has been contributed follows a term for years, the value of the...

Investigating and improving student understanding of the expectation values of observables in quantum mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshman, Emily; Singh, Chandralekha

2017-07-01

The expectation value of an observable is an important concept in quantum mechanics since measurement outcomes are, in general, probabilistic and we only have information about the probability distribution of measurement outcomes in a given quantum state of a system. However, we find that upper-level undergraduate and PhD students in physics have both conceptual and procedural difficulties when determining the expectation value of a physical observable in a given quantum state in terms of the eigenstates and eigenvalues of the corresponding operator, especially when using Dirac notation. Here we first describe the difficulties that these students have with determining the expectation value of an observable in Dirac notation. We then discuss how the difficulties found via student responses to written surveys and individual interviews were used as a guide in the development of a quantum interactive learning tutorial (QuILT) to help students develop a good grasp of the expectation value. The QuILT strives to help students integrate conceptual understanding and procedural skills to develop a coherent understanding of the expectation value. We discuss the effectiveness of the QuILT in helping students learn this concept from in-class evaluations.

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R

2007-01-01

The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

In search of a theoretical structure for understanding motivation in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Medalia, Alice; Brekke, John

2010-09-01

This themed issue considers different ways to conceptualize the motivational impairment that is a core negative symptom of schizophrenia. Motivational impairment has been linked to poor functional outcome, thus it is important to understand the nature and causes of motivational impairment in order to develop better treatment strategies to enhance motivation and engage patients in the process of recovery. Motivation refers to the processes whereby goal-directed activities are instigated and sustained and can be thought of as the product of a complex interaction of physiological processes and social contextual variables. In this issue, the physiological processes of motivation are the focus of Barch and Dowd, who highlight the role of prefrontal and subcortical mesolimbic dopamine systems in incentive-based learning and the difficulties people with schizophrenia have using internal representations of relevant experiences and goals to drive the behavior that should allow them to obtain desired outcomes. The articles in this issue by Choi et al., Nakagami et al., and Silverstein, focus on social contextual or environmental variables that can shape behavior and motivation. Together, these articles highlight the impact of external cues and goal properties on the expectations and values attached to goal outcomes. Expectancy-value and Self-Determination theories provide an overarching framework to accommodate the perspectives and data provided in all these articles. In the following introduction we show how the articles in this themed issue both support the role of expectancies and value in motivation in schizophrenia and elucidate possible deficiencies in the way expectations and value get assigned.

In Search of a Theoretical Structure for Understanding Motivation in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Medalia, Alice; Brekke, John

2010-01-01

This themed issue considers different ways to conceptualize the motivational impairment that is a core negative symptom of schizophrenia. Motivational impairment has been linked to poor functional outcome, thus it is important to understand the nature and causes of motivational impairment in order to develop better treatment strategies to enhance motivation and engage patients in the process of recovery. Motivation refers to the processes whereby goal-directed activities are instigated and sustained and can be thought of as the product of a complex interaction of physiological processes and social contextual variables. In this issue, the physiological processes of motivation are the focus of Barch and Dowd, who highlight the role of prefrontal and subcortical mesolimbic dopamine systems in incentive-based learning and the difficulties people with schizophrenia have using internal representations of relevant experiences and goals to drive the behavior that should allow them to obtain desired outcomes. The articles in this issue by Choi et al., Nakagami et al., and Silverstein, focus on social contextual or environmental variables that can shape behavior and motivation. Together, these articles highlight the impact of external cues and goal properties on the expectations and values attached to goal outcomes. Expectancy-value and Self-Determination theories provide an overarching framework to accommodate the perspectives and data provided in all these articles. In the following introduction we show how the articles in this themed issue both support the role of expectancies and value in motivation in schizophrenia and elucidate possible deficiencies in the way expectations and value get assigned. PMID:20595203

An exploratory study on the relationship between parents' passion for sport/exercise and children's self- and task-perceptions in sport/exercise.

PubMed

Chen, Chen-Yueh

2014-06-01

This study investigated the relationship between parents' passion for sport/exercise and children's self- and task-perceptions in sport and exercise. Paired samples of 312 children, 312 fathers, and 312 mothers were collected using two-stage sampling; parents were classified based on their passion for sport and exercise as high concordance if both parents had a high passion for sport and exercise, low concordance if neither parent had a passion for sport and exercise, or discordant. Intrinsic interest value, attainment value/importance, extrinsic utility value, ability/expectancy, task difficulty, and required effort were measured, as well as harmonious and obsessive passion. Children's self- and task-perceptions in sport and exercise were examined with respect to parents' passion for sport and exercise. The results of the study indicated that children of parents with high concordance in harmonious passion for sport and exercise scored higher on intrinsic interest value, attainment value/importance, extrinsic utility value, ability/expectancy, task difficulty, and required effort in sport and exercise than counterparts with discordant and low concordance parents. Similar patterns were found for obsessive passion in parents.

The Benefits of Restoration in Urbanizing Watersheds: Developing Value Indicators and Understanding Social Barriers and Opportunities

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological restoration can reestablish ecosystem services (ES) that provide important social benefits, but managers with limited funds and resources are forced to prioritize potential restoration sites. Prioritizing restoration sites based on ecological functioning and expected ...

Fish Consumption Advisories: Toward a Unified, Scientifically Credible Approach

EPA Science Inventory

A model is proposed for fish consumption advisories based on consensus-derived risk assessment values for common contaminants in fish and the latest risk assessment methods. he model accounts in part for the expected toxicity to mixtures of chemicals, the underlying uncertainties...

Of goals and habits: age-related and individual differences in goal-directed decision-making.

PubMed

Eppinger, Ben; Walter, Maik; Heekeren, Hauke R; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this study we investigated age-related and individual differences in habitual (model-free) and goal-directed (model-based) decision-making. Specifically, we were interested in three questions. First, does age affect the balance between model-based and model-free decision mechanisms? Second, are these age-related changes due to age differences in working memory (WM) capacity? Third, can model-based behavior be affected by manipulating the distinctiveness of the reward value of choice options? To answer these questions we used a two-stage Markov decision task in in combination with computational modeling to dissociate model-based and model-free decision mechanisms. To affect model-based behavior in this task we manipulated the distinctiveness of reward probabilities of choice options. The results show age-related deficits in model-based decision-making, which are particularly pronounced if unexpected reward indicates the need for a shift in decision strategy. In this situation younger adults explore the task structure, whereas older adults show perseverative behavior. Consistent with previous findings, these results indicate that older adults have deficits in the representation and updating of expected reward value. We also observed substantial individual differences in model-based behavior. In younger adults high WM capacity is associated with greater model-based behavior and this effect is further elevated when reward probabilities are more distinct. However, in older adults we found no effect of WM capacity. Moreover, age differences in model-based behavior remained statistically significant, even after controlling for WM capacity. Thus, factors other than decline in WM, such as deficits in the in the integration of expected reward value into strategic decisions may contribute to the observed impairments in model-based behavior in older adults.

Of goals and habits: age-related and individual differences in goal-directed decision-making

PubMed Central

Eppinger, Ben; Walter, Maik; Heekeren, Hauke R.; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this study we investigated age-related and individual differences in habitual (model-free) and goal-directed (model-based) decision-making. Specifically, we were interested in three questions. First, does age affect the balance between model-based and model-free decision mechanisms? Second, are these age-related changes due to age differences in working memory (WM) capacity? Third, can model-based behavior be affected by manipulating the distinctiveness of the reward value of choice options? To answer these questions we used a two-stage Markov decision task in in combination with computational modeling to dissociate model-based and model-free decision mechanisms. To affect model-based behavior in this task we manipulated the distinctiveness of reward probabilities of choice options. The results show age-related deficits in model-based decision-making, which are particularly pronounced if unexpected reward indicates the need for a shift in decision strategy. In this situation younger adults explore the task structure, whereas older adults show perseverative behavior. Consistent with previous findings, these results indicate that older adults have deficits in the representation and updating of expected reward value. We also observed substantial individual differences in model-based behavior. In younger adults high WM capacity is associated with greater model-based behavior and this effect is further elevated when reward probabilities are more distinct. However, in older adults we found no effect of WM capacity. Moreover, age differences in model-based behavior remained statistically significant, even after controlling for WM capacity. Thus, factors other than decline in WM, such as deficits in the in the integration of expected reward value into strategic decisions may contribute to the observed impairments in model-based behavior in older adults. PMID:24399925

Implementing Target Value Design.

PubMed

Alves, Thais da C L; Lichtig, Will; Rybkowski, Zofia K

2017-04-01

An alternative to the traditional way of designing projects is the process of target value design (TVD), which takes different departure points to start the design process. The TVD process starts with the client defining an allowable cost that needs to be met by the design and construction teams. An expected cost in the TVD process is defined through multiple interactions between multiple stakeholders who define wishes and others who define ways of achieving these wishes. Finally, a target cost is defined based on the expected profit the design and construction teams are expecting to make. TVD follows a series of continuous improvement efforts aimed at reaching the desired goals for the project and its associated target value cost. The process takes advantage of rapid cycles of suggestions, analyses, and implementation that starts with the definition of value for the client. In the traditional design process, the goal is to identify user preferences and find solutions that meet the needs of the client's expressed preferences. In the lean design process, the goal is to educate users about their values and advocate for a better facility over the long run; this way owners can help contractors and designers to identify better solutions. This article aims to inform the healthcare community about tools and techniques commonly used during the TVD process and how they can be used to educate and support project participants in developing better solutions to meet their needs now as well as in the future.

The option value of delay in health technology assessment.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

2008-01-01

Processes of health technology assessment (HTA) inform decisions under uncertainty about whether to invest in new technologies based on evidence of incremental effects, incremental cost, and incremental net benefit monetary (INMB). An option value to delaying such decisions to wait for further evidence is suggested in the usual case of interest, in which the prior distribution of INMB is positive but uncertain. of estimating the option value of delaying decisions to invest have previously been developed when investments are irreversible with an uncertain payoff over time and information is assumed fixed. However, in HTA decision uncertainty relates to information (evidence) on the distribution of INMB. This article demonstrates that the option value of delaying decisions to allow collection of further evidence can be estimated as the expected value of sample of information (EVSI). For irreversible decisions, delay and trial (DT) is demonstrated to be preferred to adopt and no trial (AN) when the EVSI exceeds expected costs of information, including expected opportunity costs of not treating patients with the new therapy. For reversible decisions, adopt and trial (AT) becomes a potentially optimal strategy, but costs of reversal are shown to reduce the EVSI of this strategy due to both a lower probability of reversal being optimal and lower payoffs when reversal is optimal. Hence, decision makers are generally shown to face joint research and reimbursement decisions (AN, DT and AT), with the optimal choice dependent on costs of reversal as well as opportunity costs of delay and the distribution of prior INMB.

A Practical Measure of Student Motivation: Establishing Validity Evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost Scale in Middle School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kosovich, Jeff J.; Hulleman, Chris S.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Getty, Steve

2015-01-01

We present validity evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost (EVC) Scale of student motivation. Using a brief, 10-item scale, we measured middle school students' expectancy, value, and cost for their math and science classes in the Fall and Winter of the same academic year. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the three-factor structure of the EVC…

Environmental Assessment for Implementation of Expanded Bird-Aircraft Strike Hazard (BASH) Program for Moody Air Force Base and Private and Public Lands Surrounding Moody Air Force Base, Georgia

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-01

values are not expected to be significantly impacted by any of the alternatives analyzed: soils , geology, minerals, water quality/quantity, flood...pesticides on eggshell thickness, rather than direct mortality events (GWF, 2003). The proposed action does not involve the destruction of nesting

DSN 70-meter antenna microwave optics design and performance improvements. Part 2: Comparison with measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bathker, D. A.; Slobin, S. D.

1989-01-01

The measured Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-meter antenna performance at S- and X-bands is compared with the design expectations. A discussion of natural radio-source calibration standards is given. New estimates of DSN 64-meter antenna performance are given, based on improved values of calibration source flux and size correction. A comparison of the 64- and 70-meter performances shows that average S-band peak gain improvement is 1.94 dB, compared with a design expectation of 1.77 dB. At X-band, the average peak gain improvement is 2.12 dB, compared with the (coincidentally similar) design expectation of 1.77 dB. The average measured 70-meter S-band peak gain exceeds the nominal design-expected gain by 0.02 dB; the average measured 70-meter X-band peak gain is 0.14 dB below the nominal design-expected gain.

Mental health treatment outcome expectancies in Burundi.

PubMed

Irankunda, Pacifique; Heatherington, Laurie

2017-02-01

Best practices in global mental health stress the importance of understanding local values and beliefs. Research demonstrates that expectancies about the effectiveness of a given treatment significantly predicts outcome, beyond the treatment effect itself. To help inform the development of mental health interventions in Burundi, we studied expectancies about the effectiveness of four treatments: spiritual healing, traditional healing, medication, and selected evidence-based psychosocial treatments widely used in the US. Treatment expectancies were assessed for each of three key syndromes identified by previous research: akabonge (a set of depression-like symptoms), guhahamuka (a set of trauma-related symptoms), and ibisigo (a set of psychosis-like symptoms) . In individual interviews or written surveys in French or Kirundi with patients ( N = 198) awaiting treatment at the clinic, we described each disorder and the treatments in everyday language, asking standard efficacy expectations questions about each ("Would it work?" "Why or why not?"). Findings indicated uniformly high expectancies about the efficacy of spiritual treatment, relatively high expectancies for western evidence-based treatments (especially cognitive behavior therapy [CBT] for depression-like symptoms), lower expectancies for medicine, and especially low expectancies for traditional healing (except for traditional healing for psychosis-like symptoms). There were significant effects of gender but not of education level. Qualitative analyses of explanations provide insight into the basis of people's beliefs, their explanations about why a given treatment would or would not work varied by type of disorder, and reflected beliefs about underlying causes. Implications for program development and future research are discussed.

Economic benefits of midseason reordering in apparel retailing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamont, A.; Elayat, H.

1995-09-27

This report presents a method for determining the value of reordering, explores factors that affect its value, and provides an estimate of the value under a range of conditions. The method is based on a stochastic process model of the demands the retailer faces. It uses a dynamic programming model to determine the optimal quantities to order and the expected profits. The analysis shows that the benefits of reordering are quite sensitive to the uncertainties in the demand and to the assumptions about the markdown of unsold merchandise at the end of the season.

Teaching the Content Subjects to Indochinese Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thuy, Vuong G.

Indochinese children entering American schools face many problems in learning the content area subjects. The problems include the tremendous linguistic barrier, differences in American and Indochinese educational practices, values, expectations, and patterns of thinking, and misplacement in American schools based on the age of Indochinese…

The Role of Laser Additive Manufacturing Methods of Metals in Repair, Refurbishment and Remanufacturing - Enabling Circular Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leino, Maija; Pekkarinen, Joonas; Soukka, Risto

Circular economy is an economy model where products, components, and materials are aimed to be kept at their highest utility and value at all times. Repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing processes are procedures aiming at returning the value of the product during its life cycle. Additive manufacturing (AM) is expected to be an enabling technology in circular economy based business models. One of AM process that enables repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing is Directed Energy Deposition. Respectively Powder Bed Fusion enables manufacturing of replacement components on demand. The aim of this study is to identify the current research findings and state of art of utilizing AM in repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing processes of metallic products. The focus is in identifying possibilities of AM in promotion of circular economy and expected environmental benefits based on the found literature. Results of the study indicate significant potential in utilizing AM in repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing activities.

TEM in situ micropillar compression tests of ion irradiated oxide dispersion strengthened alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, K. H.; Swenson, M. J.; Wu, Y.; Wharry, J. P.

2017-01-01

The growing role of charged particle irradiation in the evaluation of nuclear reactor candidate materials requires the development of novel methods to assess mechanical properties in near-surface irradiation damage layers just a few micrometers thick. In situ transmission electron microscopic (TEM) mechanical testing is one such promising method. In this work, microcompression pillars are fabricated from a Fe2+ ion irradiated bulk specimen of a model Fe-9%Cr oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloy. Yield strengths measured directly from TEM in situ compression tests are within expected values, and are consistent with predictions based on the irradiated microstructure. Measured elastic modulus values, once adjusted for the amount of deformation and deflection in the base material, are also within the expected range. A pillar size effect is only observed in samples with minimum dimension ≤100 nm due to the low inter-obstacle spacing in the as received and irradiated material. TEM in situ micropillar compression tests hold great promise for quantitatively determining mechanical properties of shallow ion-irradiated layers.

Management of conservation reserve program grasslands to meet wildlife habitat objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandever, Mark W.; Allen, Arthur W.

2015-01-01

An involved American population will continue to expect governmental policies to enhance long-term protection of natural resources and public health. Recent investigations furnish evidence that the collective economic value of environmental benefits delivered by the CRP likely exceed program costs. The mounting significance placed on environmentally-responsible land management is based in part on public recognition that social, aesthetic, and recreational values enhance the traditional uses of agricultural land.

Near Real-Time Event Detection & Prediction Using Intelligent Software Agents

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

value was 0.06743. Multiple autoregressive integrated moving average ( ARIMA ) models were then build to see if the raw data, differenced data, or...slight improvement. The best adjusted r^2 value was found to be 0.1814. Successful results were not expected from linear or ARIMA -based modelling ...appear, 2005. [63] Mora-Lopez, L., Mora, J., Morales-Bueno, R., et al. Modelling time series of climatic parameters with probabilistic finite

Evaluation of non-animal methods for assessing skin sensitisation hazard: A Bayesian Value-of-Information analysis.

PubMed

Leontaridou, Maria; Gabbert, Silke; Van Ierland, Ekko C; Worth, Andrew P; Landsiedel, Robert

2016-07-01

This paper offers a Bayesian Value-of-Information (VOI) analysis for guiding the development of non-animal testing strategies, balancing information gains from testing with the expected social gains and costs from the adoption of regulatory decisions. Testing is assumed to have value, if, and only if, the information revealed from testing triggers a welfare-improving decision on the use (or non-use) of a substance. As an illustration, our VOI model is applied to a set of five individual non-animal prediction methods used for skin sensitisation hazard assessment, seven battery combinations of these methods, and 236 sequential 2-test and 3-test strategies. Their expected values are quantified and compared to the expected value of the local lymph node assay (LLNA) as the animal method. We find that battery and sequential combinations of non-animal prediction methods reveal a significantly higher expected value than the LLNA. This holds for the entire range of prior beliefs. Furthermore, our results illustrate that the testing strategy with the highest expected value does not necessarily have to follow the order of key events in the sensitisation adverse outcome pathway (AOP). 2016 FRAME.

Do High-Ability Students Disidentify with Science? A Descriptive Study of U.S. Ninth Graders in 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersen, Lori; Chen, Jason A.

2016-01-01

The present study describes science expectancy-value motivation classes within a nationally representative sample of students who were U.S. ninth graders in 2009. An expectancy-value model was the basis for science-specific profile indicators (self-efficacy, attainment value, utility value, interest-enjoyment value). Using exploratory latent class…

Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept.

PubMed

Cooper, Katelyn M; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E

2017-01-01

There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning.

Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept

PubMed Central

Cooper, Katelyn M.; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E.

2017-01-01

There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning. PMID:28861130

Hamiltonian approach to Ehrenfest expectation values and Gaussian quantum states

PubMed Central

Bonet-Luz, Esther

2016-01-01

The dynamics of quantum expectation values is considered in a geometric setting. First, expectation values of the canonical observables are shown to be equivariant momentum maps for the action of the Heisenberg group on quantum states. Then, the Hamiltonian structure of Ehrenfest’s theorem is shown to be Lie–Poisson for a semidirect-product Lie group, named the Ehrenfest group. The underlying Poisson structure produces classical and quantum mechanics as special limit cases. In addition, quantum dynamics is expressed in the frame of the expectation values, in which the latter undergo canonical Hamiltonian motion. In the case of Gaussian states, expectation values dynamics couples to second-order moments, which also enjoy a momentum map structure. Eventually, Gaussian states are shown to possess a Lie–Poisson structure associated with another semidirect-product group, which is called the Jacobi group. This structure produces the energy-conserving variant of a class of Gaussian moment models that have previously appeared in the chemical physics literature. PMID:27279764

Academic Race Stereotypes, Academic Self-Concept, and Racial Centrality in African American Youth.

PubMed

Okeke, Ndidi A; Howard, Lionel C; Kurtz-Costes, Beth; Rowley, Stephanie J

2009-08-01

The relation between academic race stereotype endorsement and academic self-concept was examined in two studies of seventh- and eighth-grade African Americans. Based on expectancy-value theory, the authors hypothesized that academic race stereotype endorsement would be negatively related to self-perceptions. Furthermore, it was anticipated that the relation between stereotype endorsement and self-perceptions would be moderated by racial centrality. The hypothesis was supported in two independent samples. Among students with high racial centrality, endorsement of traditional race stereotypes was linked to lower self-perceptions of academic competence. The stereotype/self-concept relation was nonsignificant among youth for whom race was less central to their identities. These results confirm the supposition of expectancy-value theory and illustrate the interweaving of group and individual identity with motivational beliefs.

Comprehensive analysis of statistical and model-based overlay lot disposition methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crow, David A.; Flugaur, Ken; Pellegrini, Joseph C.; Joubert, Etienne L.

2001-08-01

Overlay lot disposition algorithms in lithography occupy some of the highest leverage decision points in the microelectronic manufacturing process. In a typical large volume sub-0.18micrometers fab the lithography lot disposition decision is made about 500 times per day. Each decision will send a lot of wafers either to the next irreversible process step or back to rework in an attempt to improve unacceptable overlay performance. In the case of rework, the intention is that the reworked lot will represent better yield (and thus more value) than the original lot and that the enhanced lot value will exceed the cost of rework. Given that the estimated cost of reworking a critical-level lot is around 10,000 (based upon the opportunity cost of consuming time on a state-of-the-art DUV scanner), we are faced with the implication that the lithography lot disposition decision process impacts up to 5 million per day in decisions. That means that a 1% error rate in this decision process represents over 18 million per year lost in profit for a representative sit. Remarkably, despite this huge leverage, the lithography lot disposition decision algorithm usually receives minimal attention. In many cases, this lack of attention has resulted in the retention of sub-optimal algorithms from earlier process generations and a significant negative impact on the economic output of many high-volume manufacturing sites. An ideal lot- dispositioning algorithm would be an algorithm that results into the best economic decision being made every time - lots would only be reworked where the expected value (EV) of the reworked lot minus the expected value of the original lot exceeds the cost of the rework: EV(reworked lot)- EV(original lot)>COST(rework process) Calculating the above expected values in real-time has generally been deemed too complicated and maintenance-intensive to be practical for fab operations, so a simplified rule is typically used.

Attitudes and values expected of public health nursing students at graduation: A delphi study.

PubMed

Okura, Mika; Takizawa, Hiroko

2018-06-01

The skills and knowledge of the competencies expected of public health nursing (PHN) students at graduation have been clarified; however, the attitudes and values have not yet been studied in Japan. The objective of this study was to identify and reach a consensus among experts on the attitudes and values expected of PHN students at graduation. This survey was conducted as a two-stage Delphi study. We selected the following experts: 248 teachers in the faculty of public health nursing at a university as academic experts, and 250 public health nurses who were also experienced clinical instructors as clinical experts. The round 1 mailed survey was conducted using a questionnaire about the necessity and importance of attitudes and values, and 211 experts responded (42.4%, clinical; n = 124, academic; n = 87). In the Round 2 survey, the experts consisted of 60.2% of the round 1 participants (clinical; n = 73, academic; n = 54). Descriptive statistics were used for multiple imputation. We identified a total of 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, and reached ≥90% consensus for most items (except for one). Regarding the expected achievement level at graduation, there was no difference between clinical and academic experts except for one item. Consensus was clearly achieved for 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, as well as importance and expected achievement level at graduation. In the future, it is important to examine strategies that can effectively develop these attitudes and values through basic and continuous education. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical Explanations of Environmental Motivations and Expectations of Clients on Green Building Demand and Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iheanyichukwu Joachim, Onuoha; Kamarudin, Norhaya; Uche Aliagha, Godwin; Ufere, Kalu Joseph

2015-01-01

In building industry, green demand and investment creates a positive footprint on the environment. However, these environmental opportunities have not been adequately harnessed and explored by Clients of green building apparently because of poor understanding of the motivating drivers and benefits accruing from green building demand and investment. The decision to demand for or invest in green building is influenced by certain environmental motivating drivers and expectations which have not been fully examined by researchers and not well understood by stakeholders. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and Theory of Value Belief Norm (VBN) explanations, this study focused on the Clients, purchasers and users' motivations and intentions to go for green building. Based on the reviewed theories, we hypothesized that environmental motivations and expectations for green building demand and investment are embedded in the environmental quest for protection of eco-system and bio-diversity, improvement of water and air quality, reduction of solid waste, conservation of natural resources, reduction of societal costs of landfill creation and maintenance, minimization of site impact and reduction emission to air and enhanced energy efficiency. However, the predictive validity of these propositions depends on the client's beliefs, values, social pressure, and perceived behavioural control.

Models based on value and probability in health improve shared decision making.

PubMed

Ortendahl, Monica

2008-10-01

Diagnostic reasoning and treatment decisions are a key competence of doctors. A model based on values and probability provides a conceptual framework for clinical judgments and decisions, and also facilitates the integration of clinical and biomedical knowledge into a diagnostic decision. Both value and probability are usually estimated values in clinical decision making. Therefore, model assumptions and parameter estimates should be continually assessed against data, and models should be revised accordingly. Introducing parameter estimates for both value and probability, which usually pertain in clinical work, gives the model labelled subjective expected utility. Estimated values and probabilities are involved sequentially for every step in the decision-making process. Introducing decision-analytic modelling gives a more complete picture of variables that influence the decisions carried out by the doctor and the patient. A model revised for perceived values and probabilities by both the doctor and the patient could be used as a tool for engaging in a mutual and shared decision-making process in clinical work.

Constraining possible variations of the fine structure constant in strong gravitational fields with the Kα iron line

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bambi, Cosimo, E-mail: bambi@fudan.edu.cn

2014-03-01

In extensions of general relativity and in theories aiming at unifying gravity with the forces of the Standard Model, the value of the ''fundamental constants'' is often determined by the vacuum expectation value of new fields, which may thus change in different backgrounds. Variations of fundamental constants with respect to the values measured today in laboratories on Earth are expected to be more evident on cosmological timescales and/or in strong gravitational fields. In this paper, I show that the analysis of the Kα iron line observed in the X-ray spectrum of black holes can potentially be used to probe themore » fine structure constant α in gravitational potentials relative to Earth of Δφ ≈ 0.1. At present, systematic effects not fully under control prevent to get robust and stringent bounds on possible variations of the value of α with this technique, but the fact that current data can be fitted with models based on standard physics already rules out variations of the fine structure constant larger than some percent.« less

Professional values and competencies as explanatory factors for the use of evidence-based practice in nursing.

PubMed

Skela-Savič, Brigita; Hvalič-Touzery, Simona; Pesjak, Katja

2017-08-01

To establish the connection between values, competencies, selected job characteristics and evidence-based practice use. Nurses rarely apply evidence-based practice in everyday work. A recent body of research has looked at various variables explaining the use of evidence-based practice, but not values and competencies. A cross-sectional, non-experimental quantitative explorative research design. Standardized instruments were used (Nurse Professional Values Scale-R, Nurse Competence Scale, Evidence-Based Practice Beliefs and Implementation Scale). The sample included 780 nurses from 20 Slovenian hospitals. The data were collected in 2015. The study identifies two new variables contributing to a better understanding of beliefs on and implementation of evidence-based practice, thus broadening the existing research evidence. These are the values of activism and professionalism and competencies aimed at the development and professionalization of nursing. Values of caring, trust and justice and competencies expected in everyday practice do not influence the beliefs and implementation of evidence-based practice. Respondents ascribed less importance to values connected with activism and professionalism and competencies connected with the development of professionalism. Nurses agree that evidence-based practice is useful in their clinical work, but they lack the knowledge to implement it in practice. Evidence-based practice implementation in nursing practice is low. Study results stress the importance of increasing the knowledge and skills on professional values of activism and professionalism and competencies connected to nursing development. The study expands the current understanding of evidence-based practice use and provides invaluable insight for nursing managers, higher education managers and the national nursing association. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Correlation between Gifted Students' Cost and Task Value Perceptions towards Mathematics: The Mediating Role of Expectancy Belief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kurnaz, Ahmet

2018-01-01

In this study whether the expectancy belief has a mediating role in the correlation between cost value perception and task value perception of gifted students towards mathematics was examined. It is predicted that the correlation between cost value and task value perceptions of gifted students towards mathematics can change according to their…

Expectancy beliefs and perceived values of Chinese college students in physical education and physical activity.

PubMed

Chen, Ang; Liu, Xinlan

2008-03-01

The expectancy-value theory postulates that motivation relies on individuals' beliefs of success, perceived Attainment, Intrinsic Interest, and Utility values and Cost. This study examined Chinese college students' expectancy-value motivation in relation to physical education and self-initiated physical activity. A random sample of 368 Chinese university students responded to questionnaires on perceived expectancy beliefs, perceived values, and cost in terms of their experiences in mandatory physical education programs and in self-initiated after-school physical activity. They reported their choice decisions for continuing physical education. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, X2, logistic and linear regressions. The physical education curriculum was perceived as a major cost to motivation. Motivated by the Intrinsic Interest and Utility value, most students chose to continue to take physical education. Self-initiated after-school physical activity was motivated by the Attainment value only. No association was found between self-initiated physical activity and Liking or Disliking of physical education. Motivation for physical education and for self-initiated physical activity derived from different perceived values. The Attainment value motivates the students for self-initiated physical activity, whereas Intrinsic Interest and Utility values motivate them to choose to continue physical education.

Expected p-values in light of an ROC curve analysis applied to optimal multiple testing procedures.

PubMed

Vexler, Albert; Yu, Jihnhee; Zhao, Yang; Hutson, Alan D; Gurevich, Gregory

2017-01-01

Many statistical studies report p-values for inferential purposes. In several scenarios, the stochastic aspect of p-values is neglected, which may contribute to drawing wrong conclusions in real data experiments. The stochastic nature of p-values makes their use to examine the performance of given testing procedures or associations between investigated factors to be difficult. We turn our focus on the modern statistical literature to address the expected p-value (EPV) as a measure of the performance of decision-making rules. During the course of our study, we prove that the EPV can be considered in the context of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, a well-established biostatistical methodology. The ROC-based framework provides a new and efficient methodology for investigating and constructing statistical decision-making procedures, including: (1) evaluation and visualization of properties of the testing mechanisms, considering, e.g. partial EPVs; (2) developing optimal tests via the minimization of EPVs; (3) creation of novel methods for optimally combining multiple test statistics. We demonstrate that the proposed EPV-based approach allows us to maximize the integrated power of testing algorithms with respect to various significance levels. In an application, we use the proposed method to construct the optimal test and analyze a myocardial infarction disease dataset. We outline the usefulness of the "EPV/ROC" technique for evaluating different decision-making procedures, their constructions and properties with an eye towards practical applications.

Matches and mismatches between conservation investments and biodiversity values in the European Union.

PubMed

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Abellán, Pedro; Aragón, Pedro; Varela, Sara; Cabeza, Mar

2018-02-01

Recently, the European Commission adopted a new strategy to halt the loss of biodiversity. Member states are expected to favor a more effective collection and redistribution of European Union (EU) funds under the current Multiannual Financial Framework for 2014-2020. Because of the large spatial variation in the distribution of biodiversity and conservation needs at the continental scale, EU instruments should ensure that countries with higher biodiversity values get more funds and resources for the conservation than other countries. Using linear regressions, we assessed the association between conservation investments and biodiversity values across member states, accounting for a variety of conservation investment indicators, taxonomic groups (including groups of plants, vertebrates, and invertebrates), and indicators of biodiversity value. In general, we found clear overall associations between conservation investments and biodiversity variables. However, some countries received more or less investment than would be expected based on biodiversity values in those countries. We also found that the extensive use of birds as unique indicators of conservation effectiveness may lead to biased decisions. Our results can inform future decisions regarding funding allocation and thus improve distribution of EU conservation funds. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Value conditioning modulates visual working memory processes.

PubMed

Thomas, Paul M J; FitzGibbon, Lily; Raymond, Jane E

2016-01-01

Learning allows the value of motivationally salient events to become associated with stimuli that predict those events. Here, we asked whether value associations could facilitate visual working memory (WM), and whether such effects would be valence dependent. Our experiment was specifically designed to isolate value-based effects on WM from value-based effects on selective attention that might be expected to bias encoding. In a simple associative learning task, participants learned to associate the color of tinted faces with gaining or losing money or neither. Tinted faces then served as memoranda in a face identity WM task for which previously learned color associations were irrelevant and no monetary outcomes were forthcoming. Memory was best for faces with gain-associated tints, poorest for faces with loss-associated tints, and average for faces with no-outcome-associated tints. Value associated with 1 item in the WM array did not modulate memory for other items in the array. Eye movements when studying faces did not depend on the valence of previously learned color associations, arguing against value-based biases being due to differential encoding. This valence-sensitive value-conditioning effect on WM appears to result from modulation of WM maintenance processes. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk-dependent reward value signal in human prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Tobler, Philippe N.; Christopoulos, George I.; O'Doherty, John P.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Schultz, Wolfram

2009-01-01

When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the expected value and risk of each option, and choose the one with the higher utility. Expected value increases the expected utility of an option for all individuals. Risk increases the utility of an option for risk-seeking individuals, but decreases it for risk averse individuals. In 2 separate experiments, one involving imperative (no-choice), the other choice situations, we investigated how predicted risk and expected value aggregate into a common reward signal in the human brain. Blood oxygen level dependent responses in lateral regions of the prefrontal cortex increased monotonically with increasing reward value in the absence of risk in both experiments. Risk enhanced these responses in risk-seeking participants, but reduced them in risk-averse participants. The aggregate value and risk responses in lateral prefrontal cortex contrasted with pure value signals independent of risk in the striatum. These results demonstrate an aggregate risk and value signal in the prefrontal cortex that would be compatible with basic assumptions underlying the mean-variance approach to utility. PMID:19369207

Subsonic Longitudinal Performance Coefficient Extraction from Shuttle Flight Data: an Accuracy Assessment for Determination of Data Base Updates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Findlay, J. T.; Kelly, G. M.; Mcconnell, J. G.; Compton, H. R.

1983-01-01

Longitudinal performance comparisons between flight derived and predicted values are presented for the first five NASA Space Shuttle Columbia flights. Though subsonic comparisons are emphasized, comparisons during the transonic and low supersonic regions of flight are included. Computed air data information based on the remotely sensed atmospheric measurements as well as in situ Orbiter Air Data System (ADS) measurements were incorporated. Each air data source provides for comparisons versus the predicted values from the LaRC data base. Principally, L/D, C sub L, and C sub D, comparisons are presented, though some pitching moment results are included. Similarities in flight conditions and spacecraft configuration during the first five flights are discussed. Contributions from the various elements of the data base are presented and the overall differences observed between the flight and predicted values are discussed in terms of expected variations. A discussion on potential data base updates is presented based on the results from the five flights to date.

Carbon and oxygen isotopic disequilibrium during calcification of Globigerina bulloides in the Southern ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

K, P.; Ghosh, P.; N, A.

2015-12-01

Oxygen and carbon isotopes in planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides recovered from the water column of 0-1000 m depth across the meridional transect i.e. 10°N to 53°S of Indian ocean were compared with the available data from the core-top samples across the same transect. We also recorded in situ temperatures of the water column based on probe (CTD) profiles. The δ18O and δ13C values measured in the core top samples matches with the tow results. The equilibrium δ18O of calcite calculated from known temperature and δ18O of water column allowed us to compare the observed δ18O of formaminieral shell with the expected equilibrium values. Our comparison of carbonate composition in the samples between 10°N till 40°S showed excellent match with the expected equilibrium δ18O values established from the water collected at depth range of ~75-200m, however beyond 40°S the disequilibrium was pronounced with heavier δ18O (enriched by ~1.5‰) recorded in the carbonate as compared with the expected equilibrium δ18O values established from water. This observation was further verified with δ13C measurement of shell carbonates comparing with the equilibrium δ13C of calcite calculated with known temperature and δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon in the water column. The δ13C of the shell carbonate was found heavier as compared to the expected equilibrium δ13C. Both δ18O and δ13C showed simultaneous enrichment signature in the region beyond 40°S suggesting role of processes such as leaching along with dissolution of shell carbonate in a relatively acidic condition.

Cultural Mistrust, Academic Outcome Expectations, and Outcome Values among African American Adolescent Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Irving, Miles Anthony; Hudley, Cynthia

2005-01-01

This study measured the relationship between outcome expectations, outcome value, and cultural mistrust among African American male high school students (N = 75) attending an urban, Southern California school. We hypothesized that a negative perception of the dominant culture would negatively affect academic outcome expectations and academic…

Development of a Survey to Examine the Factors That Motivate Secondary Education Teachers' Use of Problem-Based Learning (PBL)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lao, Huei-Chen

2016-01-01

In this quantitative study, a survey was developed and administered to middle and high school teachers to examine what factors motivated them to implement problem-based learning (PBL). Using Expectancy-Value Theory by Eccles et al. (1983) and Self-Determination Theory by Ryan and Deci (2000b) as the theoretical framework, this instrument measured…

Evaluating droplet digital PCR for the quantification of human genomic DNA: converting copies per nanoliter to nanograms nuclear DNA per microliter.

PubMed

Duewer, David L; Kline, Margaret C; Romsos, Erica L; Toman, Blaza

2018-05-01

The highly multiplexed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays used for forensic human identification perform best when used with an accurately determined quantity of input DNA. To help ensure the reliable performance of these assays, we are developing a certified reference material (CRM) for calibrating human genomic DNA working standards. To enable sharing information over time and place, CRMs must provide accurate and stable values that are metrologically traceable to a common reference. We have shown that droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) limiting dilution end-point measurements of the concentration of DNA copies per volume of sample can be traceably linked to the International System of Units (SI). Unlike values assigned using conventional relationships between ultraviolet absorbance and DNA mass concentration, entity-based ddPCR measurements are expected to be stable over time. However, the forensic community expects DNA quantity to be stated in terms of mass concentration rather than entity concentration. The transformation can be accomplished given SI-traceable values and uncertainties for the number of nucleotide bases per human haploid genome equivalent (HHGE) and the average molar mass of a nucleotide monomer in the DNA polymer. This report presents the considerations required to establish the metrological traceability of ddPCR-based mass concentration estimates of human nuclear DNA. Graphical abstract The roots of metrological traceability for human nuclear DNA mass concentration results. Values for the factors in blue must be established experimentally. Values for the factors in red have been established from authoritative source materials. HHGE stands for "haploid human genome equivalent"; there are two HHGE per diploid human genome.

A consumption value-gap analysis for sustainable consumption.

PubMed

Biswas, Aindrila

2017-03-01

Recent studies on consumption behavior have depicted environmental apprehension resulting from across wide consumer segments. However, this has not been widely reflected upon the growth in the market shares for green or environment-friendly products mostly because gaps exist between consumers' expectations and perceptions for those products. Previous studies have highlighted the impact of perceived value on potential demand, consumer satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The necessity to understand the effects of gaps in expected and perceived values on consumers' behavioral intention and potential demand for green products cannot be undermined as it shapes the consumers' inclination to repeated purchase and consumption and thus foster potential market demand. Pertaining to this reason, the study aims to adopt a consumption value-gap model based on the theory of consumption values to assess their impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand of green products. Consumption value refers to the level of fulfillment of consumer needs by assessment of net utility derived after effective comparison between the benefits (financial or emotional) and the gives (money, time, or energy). The larger the gaps the higher will be the adversarial impact on behavioral intentions. A structural equation modeling was applied to assess data collected through questionnaire survey. The results indicate that functional value-gap and environmental value-gap has the most adversarial impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand for green products.

Implementation of outcomes-driven and value-based mental health care in the UK.

PubMed

Wallang, Paul; Kamath, Sanjith; Parshall, Alice; Saridar, Tahani; Shah, Mahek

2018-06-02

Health-care companies around the world face an unprecedented challenge of rising health-care costs, increasing life expectancy and escalating demand. Although national health-care budgets have increased (as a percentage of gross domestic product) health care continues to impart significant upward pressure on national expenditure, particularly in the UK ( Licchetta and Stelmach, 2016 ). Additionally a substantial funding gap will continue to grow ( Gainsbury, 2016 ). In response to this challenge a 'value' based strategy has gained momentum over the last two decades. Several pioneers of this approach (Sir Muir Gray at Oxford University, Professor Michael Porter at Harvard University and Professor Elizabeth Teisberg at Dell Medical School) emphasize the importance of organizations focusing on 'value'. Porter and Teisberg (2006) highlight the 'value equation' as obtaining the very best patient outcomes for each unit of currency spent. Gray expands on this model, describing three types of value: allocative, technical and personal ( Gray, 2011 ). Although some global health-care organizations have embraced the value-based agenda to transform acute care facilities, mental health providers have been slow to consider the benefits of this approach. This article gives a broad overview of implementing a value-based model in mental health care, the significant development resources needed, organizational issues, and finally concludes with the benefits and a vision of value-based mental health care for the future.

Human Resources Data in Weapon System Design: An Initial Plan for Development of a Unified Data Base.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-01

Dela Bnrted) Item 19 Continued: system design design handbooks maintenance manpower simulation de’ision options cost estimating relationships prediction...determine the extent to which human resources data (HRD) are used in early system design. The third was to assess the availability and ade - quacy of...relationships, regression analysis, comparability analysis, expected value techniques) to provide initial data values in the very early stages of weapon system

Phylogenetic diversity, functional trait diversity and extinction: avoiding tipping points and worst-case losses.

PubMed

Faith, Daniel P

2015-02-19

The phylogenetic diversity measure, ('PD'), measures the relative feature diversity of different subsets of taxa from a phylogeny. At the level of feature diversity, PD supports the broad goal of biodiversity conservation to maintain living variation and option values. PD calculations at the level of lineages and features include those integrating probabilities of extinction, providing estimates of expected PD. This approach has known advantages over the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) methods. Expected PD methods also have limitations. An alternative notion of expected diversity, expected functional trait diversity, relies on an alternative non-phylogenetic model and allows inferences of diversity at the level of functional traits. Expected PD also faces challenges in helping to address phylogenetic tipping points and worst-case PD losses. Expected PD may not choose conservation options that best avoid worst-case losses of long branches from the tree of life. We can expand the range of useful calculations based on expected PD, including methods for identifying phylogenetic key biodiversity areas. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Novel health economic evaluation of a vaccination strategy to prevent HPV-related diseases: the BEST study.

PubMed

Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Costa, Silvano; Garganese, Giorgia; Picardo, Mauro; Drummond, Mike; Jonsson, Bengt; Scambia, Giovanni; Zweifel, Peter; Mennini, Francesco S

2012-12-01

The development of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related diseases is not understood perfectly and uncertainties associated with commonly utilized probabilistic models must be considered. The study assessed the cost-effectiveness of a quadrivalent-based multicohort HPV vaccination strategy within a Bayesian framework. A full Bayesian multicohort Markov model was used, in which all unknown quantities were associated with suitable probability distributions reflecting the state of currently available knowledge. These distributions were informed by observed data or expert opinion. The model cycle lasted 1 year, whereas the follow-up time horizon was 90 years. Precancerous cervical lesions, cervical cancers, and anogenital warts were considered as outcomes. The base case scenario (2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15 y) and other multicohort vaccination strategies (additional cohorts aged 18 and 25 y) were cost-effective, with a discounted cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained that corresponded to €12,013, €13,232, and €15,890 for vaccination programs based on 2, 3, and 4 cohorts, respectively. With multicohort vaccination strategies, the reduction in the number of HPV-related events occurred earlier (range, 3.8-6.4 y) when compared with a single cohort. The analysis of the expected value of information showed that the results of the model were subject to limited uncertainty (cost per patient = €12.6). This methodological approach is designed to incorporate the uncertainty associated with HPV vaccination. Modeling the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort vaccination program with Bayesian statistics confirmed the value for money of quadrivalent-based HPV vaccination. The expected value of information gave the most appropriate and feasible representation of the true value of this program.

48 CFR 44.302 - Requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... shall determine the need for a CPSR based on, but not limited to, the past performance of the contractor, and the volume, complexity and dollar value of subcontracts. If a contractor's sales to the Government... adjustment contracts and sales of commercial items pursuant to Part 12) are expected to exceed $25 million...

48 CFR 44.302 - Requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... shall determine the need for a CPSR based on, but not limited to, the past performance of the contractor, and the volume, complexity and dollar value of subcontracts. If a contractor's sales to the Government... adjustment contracts and sales of commercial items pursuant to Part 12) are expected to exceed $25 million...

The Use of Photography in Family Psychotherapy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Entin, Alan D.

Photographs and family albums are helpful in marriage and family psychotherapy to aid in the understanding of family processes, relationship patterns, goals, expectations, values, traditions, and ideals. Based on the assumption that a photograph is a form of communication, photography can be used to: (1) examine typical family picture-taking…

Intercultural Development: Topics and Sequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savicki, Victor; Adams, Ingrid; Wilde, April; Binder, Frauke

2008-01-01

When people travel from their own home culture to a different culture, they experience variations not only in terms of scenery and societal arrangements, but also in terms of daily routines, interpersonal interactions, and expectations. Many differences are based on the divergence in underlying values and concerns of the home versus the host…

Leveraging Educational Technology to Overcome Social Obstacles to Help Seeking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howley, Iris

2015-01-01

This dissertation provides initial empirical evidence for Expectancy Value Theory for Help Sources and generates design recommendations for online courses based on the newfound understanding between theory and student behavior. (Abstract shortened by UMI.). [The dissertation citations contained here are published with the permission of ProQuest…

Applying principles from economics to improve the transfer of ecological production estimates in fisheries ecosystem services research

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystem services (ES) represent a way to represent and quantify multiple uses, values as well as connectivity between ecosystem processes and human well-being. Ecosystem-based fisheries management approaches may seek to quantify expected trade-offs in ecosystem services due to ...

Supporting Academic Persistence in Low-Skilled Adult Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Neill, Susan; Thomson, Margareta Maria

2013-01-01

The current literature review explores the factors that contribute to academic persistence for adult learners. The aim of the study is to identify current research-based strategies aimed at supporting learner persistence, particularly for low-skilled adults. Elements of three theoretical frameworks, namely, expectancy-value theory (EVT), goal…

Helping Students Value Cultural Diversity through Research-Based Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deakins, Eric

2009-01-01

Although international students studying in New Zealand desire and expect contact with their domestic peers, the level of cross-national interactions remains generally low. This paper describes an initiative to promote more and better intercultural understanding within a target group of students having similar needs and interests in a higher…

Value of the Morgan-Monroe-Yellowwood State Forest Complex

Treesearch

William L. Hoover

2013-01-01

As publicly owned forest land, the Morgan-Monroe and Yellowwood State Forests (Indiana), referred to herein as the Morgan-Monroe Yellowwood Complex (MMYC), have many stakeholders with differing management expectations. The Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment (HEE) within the MMYC will significantly increase the science-based information available for forest management...

Invisible Cultural Barriers: Contrasting Perspectives on Student Veterans' Transition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lim, Jae Hoon; Interiano, Claudia G.; Nowell, Caroline E.; Tkacik, Peter T.; Dahlberg, Jerry L.

2018-01-01

In this interpretative phenomenological study, the implicit cultural values and expectations embedded in faculty/staff's perceptions and how they functioned as a hidden curriculum against student veterans' smooth transition into higher education were analyzed based on in-depth interviews with 20 student veterans and 9 faculty/staff members. By…

Transformative Sharing with Instant Messaging, Wikis, Interactive Maps, and Flickr

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chase, Darren

2007-01-01

Smart librarians have always valued their relationships with users and other librarians. The creative force of those relationships is empowered via Web-based social networking, collaboration, and sharing. At Stony Brook University Health Sciences Library in New York, students, faculty, clinicians, and residents expect the latest refinements in…

Applying the Expectancy-Value Model to understand health values.

PubMed

Zhang, Xu-Hao; Xie, Feng; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Thumboo, Julian; Li, Shu-Chuen

2008-03-01

Expectancy-Value Model (EVM) is the most structured model in psychology to predict attitudes by measuring attitudinal attributes (AAs) and relevant external variables. Because health value could be categorized as attitude, we aimed to apply EVM to explore its usefulness in explaining variances in health values and investigate underlying factors. Focus group discussion was carried out to identify the most common and significant AAs toward 5 different health states (coded as 11111, 11121, 21221, 32323, and 33333 in EuroQol Five-Dimension (EQ-5D) descriptive system). AAs were measured in a sum of multiplications of subjective probability (expectancy) and perceived value of attributes with 7-point Likert scales. Health values were measured using visual analog scales (VAS, range 0-1). External variables (age, sex, ethnicity, education, housing, marital status, and concurrent chronic diseases) were also incorporated into survey questionnaire distributed by convenience sampling among eligible respondents. Univariate analyses were used to identify external variables causing significant differences in VAS. Multiple linear regression model (MLR) and hierarchical regression model were used to investigate the explanatory power of AAs and possible significant external variable(s) separately or in combination, for each individual health state and a mixed scenario of five states, respectively. Four AAs were identified, namely, "worsening your quality of life in terms of health" (WQoL), "adding a burden to your family" (BTF), "making you less independent" (MLI) and "unable to work or study" (UWS). Data were analyzed based on 232 respondents (mean [SD] age: 27.7 [15.07] years, 49.1% female). Health values varied significantly across 5 health states, ranging from 0.12 (33333) to 0.97 (11111). With no significant external variables identified, EVM explained up to 62% of the variances in health values across 5 health states. The explanatory power of 4 AAs were found to be between 13% and 28% in separate MLR models (P < 0.05). When data were analyzed for each health state, variances in health values became small and explanatory power of EVM was reduced to a range between 8% and 23%. EVM was useful in explaining variances of health values and predicting important factors. Its power to explain small variances might be restricted due to limitations of 7-point Likert scale to measure AAs accurately. With further improvement and validation of a compatible continuous scale for more accurate measurement, EVM is expected to explain health values to a larger extent.

An expectancy-value model of emotion regulation: implications for motivation, emotional experience, and decision making.

PubMed

Tamir, Maya; Bigman, Yochanan E; Rhodes, Emily; Salerno, James; Schreier, Jenna

2015-02-01

According to expectancy-value models of self-regulation, people are motivated to act in ways they expect to be useful to them. For instance, people are motivated to run when they believe running is useful, even when they have nothing to run away from. Similarly, we propose an expectancy-value model of emotion regulation, according to which people are motivated to emote in ways they expect to be useful to them, regardless of immediate contextual demands. For instance, people may be motivated to get angry when they believe anger is useful, even when there is nothing to be angry about. In 5 studies, we demonstrate that leading people to expect an emotion to be useful increased their motivation to experience that emotion (Studies 1-5), led them to up-regulate the experience of that emotion (Studies 3-4), and led to emotion-consistent behavior (Study 4). Our hypotheses were supported when we manipulated the expected value of anxiety (Study 1) and anger (Studies 2-5), both consciously (Studies 1-4) and unconsciously (Study 5). We discuss the theoretical and pragmatic implications of the proposed model. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Efficiencies of power plants, quasi-static models and the geometric-mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johal, Ramandeep S.

2017-02-01

Observed efficiencies of industrial power plants are often approximated by the square-root formula: 1 - √ T -/ T +, where T +( T -) is the highest (lowest) temperature achieved in the plant. This expression can be derived within finite-time thermodynamics, or, by entropy generation minimization, based on finite rates for the processes. In these analyses, a closely related quantity is the optimal value of the intermediate temperature for the hot stream, given by the geometric-mean value: √ T +/ T -. In this paper, instead of finite-time models, we propose to model the operation of plants by quasi-static work extraction models, with one reservoir (source/sink) as finite, while the other as practically infinite. No simplifying assumption is made on the nature of the finite system. This description is consistent with two model hypotheses, each yielding a specific value of the intermediate temperature, say T 1 and T 2. The lack of additional information on validity of the hypothesis that may be actually realized, motivates to approach the problem as an exercise in inductive inference. Thus we define an expected value of the intermediate temperature as the equally weighted mean: ( T 1 + T 2)/2. It is shown that the expected value is very closely given by the geometric-mean value for almost all of the observed power plants.

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

2017-01-01

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules, and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Bigler, Mark

2016-01-01

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

Minimalist Social-Affective Value for Use in Joint Action: A Neural-Computational Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Lowe, Robert; Almér, Alexander; Lindblad, Gustaf; Gander, Pierre; Michael, John; Vesper, Cordula

2016-01-01

Joint Action is typically described as social interaction that requires coordination among two or more co-actors in order to achieve a common goal. In this article, we put forward a hypothesis for the existence of a neural-computational mechanism of affective valuation that may be critically exploited in Joint Action. Such a mechanism would serve to facilitate coordination between co-actors permitting a reduction of required information. Our hypothesized affective mechanism provides a value function based implementation of Associative Two-Process (ATP) theory that entails the classification of external stimuli according to outcome expectancies. This approach has been used to describe animal and human action that concerns differential outcome expectancies. Until now it has not been applied to social interaction. We describe our Affective ATP model as applied to social learning consistent with an “extended common currency” perspective in the social neuroscience literature. We contrast this to an alternative mechanism that provides an example implementation of the so-called social-specific value perspective. In brief, our Social-Affective ATP mechanism builds upon established formalisms for reinforcement learning (temporal difference learning models) nuanced to accommodate expectations (consistent with ATP theory) and extended to integrate non-social and social cues for use in Joint Action. PMID:27601989

Math-related career aspirations and choices within Eccles et al.'s expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors.

PubMed

Lauermann, Fani; Tsai, Yi-Miau; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

2017-08-01

Which occupation to pursue is one of the more consequential decisions people make and represents a key developmental task. Yet the underlying developmental processes associated with either individual or group differences in occupational choices are still not well understood. This study contributes toward filling this gap, focusing in particular on the math domain. We examined two aspects of Eccles et al.'s (1983) expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors: (a) the reciprocal associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs and adolescents' career plans and (b) the multiplicative association between expectancies and values in predicting occupational outcomes in the math domain. Our analyses indicate that adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math and their math- or science-related career plans reported at the beginning and end of high school predict each other over time, with the exception of intrinsic interest in math. Furthermore, multiplicative associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math predict math-related career attainment approximately 15 years after graduation from high school. Gender differences emerged regarding career-related beliefs and career attainment, with male students being more likely than female to both pursue and attain math-related careers. These gender differences could not be explained by differences in beliefs about math as an academic subject. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Motivational Constructs Influencing Undergraduate Students' Choices to become Classroom Music Teachers or Music Performers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parkes, Kelly A.; Jones, Brett D.

2012-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to examine whether any of the six motivational constructs in the expectancy-value model of motivation (i.e., expectancy, ability perceptions, intrinsic interest value, attainment value, social utility value, and cost) would predict whether students intended to have a career teaching classroom music or…

Estimation of ground motion parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, David M.; Joyner, W.B.; Oliver, A.A.; Page, R.A.

1978-01-01

Strong motion data from western North America for earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5 are examined to provide the basis for estimating peak acceleration, velocity, displacement, and duration as a function of distance for three magnitude classes. A subset of the data (from the San Fernando earthquake) is used to assess the effects of structural size and of geologic site conditions on peak motions recorded at the base of structures. Small but statistically significant differences are observed in peak values of horizontal acceleration, velocity and displacement recorded on soil at the base of small structures compared with values recorded at the base of large structures. The peak acceleration tends to b3e less and the peak velocity and displacement tend to be greater on the average at the base of large structures than at the base of small structures. In the distance range used in the regression analysis (15-100 km) the values of peak horizontal acceleration recorded at soil sites in the San Fernando earthquake are not significantly different from the values recorded at rock sites, but values of peak horizontal velocity and displacement are significantly greater at soil sites than at rock sites. Some consideration is given to the prediction of ground motions at close distances where there are insufficient recorded data points. As might be expected from the lack of data, published relations for predicting peak horizontal acceleration give widely divergent estimates at close distances (three well known relations predict accelerations between 0.33 g to slightly over 1 g at a distance of 5 km from a magnitude 6.5 earthquake). After considering the physics of the faulting process, the few available data close to faults, and the modifying effects of surface topography, at the present time it would be difficult to accept estimates less than about 0.8 g, 110 cm/s, and 40 cm, respectively, for the mean values of peak acceleration, velocity, and displacement at rock sites within 5 km of fault rupture in a magnitude 6.5 earthquake. These estimates can be expected to change as more data become available.

Context-sensitivity of the feedback-related negativity for zero-value feedback outcomes.

PubMed

Pfabigan, Daniela M; Seidel, Eva-Maria; Paul, Katharina; Grahl, Arvina; Sailer, Uta; Lanzenberger, Rupert; Windischberger, Christian; Lamm, Claus

2015-01-01

The present study investigated whether the same visual stimulus indicating zero-value feedback (€0) elicits feedback-related negativity (FRN) variation, depending on whether the outcomes correspond with expectations or not. Thirty-one volunteers performed a monetary incentive delay (MID) task while EEG was recorded. FRN amplitudes were comparable and more negative when zero-value outcome deviated from expectations than with expected gain or loss, supporting theories emphasising the impact of unexpectedness and salience on FRN amplitudes. Surprisingly, expected zero-value outcomes elicited the most negative FRNs. However, source localisation showed that such outcomes evoked less activation in cingulate areas than unexpected zero-value outcomes. Our study illustrates the context dependency of identical zero-value feedback stimuli. Moreover, the results indicate that the incentive cues in the MID task evoke different reward prediction error signals. These prediction signals differ in FRN amplitude and neuronal sources, and have to be considered in the design and interpretation of future studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expected value information improves financial risk taking across the adult life span.

PubMed

Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Wagner, Anthony D; Knutson, Brian

2011-04-01

When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.

Syndromic surveillance system based on near real-time cattle mortality monitoring.

PubMed

Torres, G; Ciaravino, V; Ascaso, S; Flores, V; Romero, L; Simón, F

2015-05-01

Early detection of an infectious disease incursion will minimize the impact of outbreaks in livestock. Syndromic surveillance based on the analysis of readily available data can enhance traditional surveillance systems and allow veterinary authorities to react in a timely manner. This study was based on monitoring the number of cattle carcasses sent for rendering in the veterinary unit of Talavera de la Reina (Spain). The aim was to develop a system to detect deviations from expected values which would signal unexpected health events. Historical weekly collected dead cattle (WCDC) time series stabilized by the Box-Cox transformation and adjusted by the minimum least squares method were used to build the univariate cycling regression model based on a Fourier transformation. Three different models, according to type of production system, were built to estimate the baseline expected number of WCDC. Two types of risk signals were generated: point risk signals when the observed value was greater than the upper 95% confidence interval of the expected baseline, and cumulative risk signals, generated by a modified cumulative sum algorithm, when the cumulative sums of reported deaths were above the cumulative sum of expected deaths. Data from 2011 were used to prospectively validate the model generating seven risk signals. None of them were correlated to infectious disease events but some coincided, in time, with very high climatic temperatures recorded in the region. The harvest effect was also observed during the first week of the study year. Establishing appropriate risk signal thresholds is a limiting factor of predictive models; it needs to be adjusted based on experience gained during the use of the models. To increase the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions epidemiological interpretation of non-specific risk signals should be complemented by other sources of information. The methodology developed in this study can enhance other existing early detection surveillance systems. Syndromic surveillance based on mortality monitoring can reduce the detection time for certain disease outbreaks associated with mild mortality only detected at regional level. The methodology can be adapted to monitor other parameters routinely collected at farm level which can be influenced by communicable diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adults' Learning Motivation: Expectancy of Success, Value, and the Role of Affective Memories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorges, Julia; Kandler, Christian

2012-01-01

The present study tested the applicability of expectancy-value theory to adults' learning motivation. Motivation was measured as the anticipated reaction (AR) of German students (N = 300) to receiving their instructions in English as a new learning opportunity. We used structural equation modeling to test our hypotheses. Expectancies of success…

Flood Risk Due to Hurricane Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivera, Francisco; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Irish, Jennifer

2015-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the expected economic losses caused by hurricane inundation. We used surge response functions, which are physics-based dimensionless scaling laws that give surge elevation as a function of the hurricane's parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location) at specified locations along the coast. These locations were close enough to avoid significant changes in surge elevations between consecutive points, and distant enough to minimize calculations. The probability of occurrence of a surge elevation value at a given location was estimated using a joint probability distribution of the hurricane parameters. The surge elevation, at the shoreline, was assumed to project horizontally inland within a polygon of influence. Individual parcel damage was calculated based on flood water depth and damage vs. depth curves available for different building types from the HAZUS computer application developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Parcel data, including property value and building type, were obtained from the county appraisal district offices. The expected economic losses were calculated as the sum of the products of the estimated parcel damages and their probability of occurrence for the different storms considered. Anticipated changes for future climate scenarios were considered by accounting for projected hurricane intensification, as indicated by sea surface temperature rise, and sea level rise, which modify the probability distribution of hurricane central pressure and change the baseline of the damage calculation, respectively. Maps of expected economic losses have been developed for Corpus Christi in Texas, Gulfport in Mississippi and Panama City in Florida. Specifically, for Port Aransas, in the Corpus Christi area, it was found that the expected economic losses were in the range of 1% to 4% of the property value for current climate conditions, of 1% to 8% for the 2030's and of 1% to 14% for the 2080's.

Quantum corrections in thermal states of fermions on anti-de Sitter space-time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambruş, Victor E.; Winstanley, Elizabeth

2017-12-01

We study the energy density and pressure of a relativistic thermal gas of massless fermions on four-dimensional Minkowski and anti-de Sitter space-times using relativistic kinetic theory. The corresponding quantum field theory quantities are given by components of the renormalized expectation value of the stress-energy tensor operator acting on a thermal state. On Minkowski space-time, the renormalized vacuum expectation value of the stress-energy tensor is by definition zero, while on anti-de Sitter space-time the vacuum contribution to this expectation value is in general nonzero. We compare the properties of the vacuum and thermal expectation values of the energy density and pressure for massless fermions and discuss the circumstances in which the thermal contribution dominates over the vacuum one.

Motivational Deficits in Schizophrenia and the Representation of Expected Value

PubMed Central

Waltz, James A.; Gold, James M.

2016-01-01

Motivational deficits (avolition and anhedonia) have historically been considered important negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Numerous studies have attempted to identify the neural substrates of avolition and anhedonia in schizophrenia, but these studies have not produced much agreement. Deficits in various aspects of reinforcement processing have been observed in individuals with schizophrenia, but it is not exactly clear which of these deficits actually engender motivational impairments in SZ. The purpose of this chapter is to examine how various reinforcement-related behavioral and neural signals could contribute to motivational impairments in both schizophrenia, and psychiatric illness, in general. In particular, we describe different aspects of the concept of expected value (EV), such as the distinction between the EV of stimuli and the expected value of actions, the acquisition of value vs. the estimation of value, and the discounting of value as a consequence of time or effort required. We conclude that avolition and anhedonia in SZ are most commonly tied to aberrant signals for expected value, in the context of learning. We discuss implications for further research on the neural substrates of motivational impairments in psychiatric illness. PMID:26370946

The value of early flight evaluation of propulsion concepts using the NASA F-15 research airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burcham, Frank W., Jr.; Ray, Ronald J.

1987-01-01

The value of early flight evaluation of propulsion and propulsion control concepts was demonstrated on the NASA F-15 airplane in programs such as highly integrated digital electronic control (HIDEC), the F100 engine model derivative (EMD), and digital electronic engine control (DEEC). (In each case, the value of flight demonstration was conclusively demonstrated). This paper described these programs, and discusses the results that were not expected, based on ground test or analytical prediction. The role of flight demonstration in facilitating transfer of technology from the laboratory to operational airplanes is discussed.

Motivational deficit in childhood depression and hyperactivity.

PubMed

Layne, C; Berry, E

1983-07-01

A recent theory states that the immediate cause of adult depression is low motivation, where motivation is the multiplicative product of a person's expectation for a reward times his value for that reward. The present experiment supported the extension of this theory to childhood depression. The expectations, values, and motivations of three groups of children (Ns = 18; mean ages = 10) were measured: A depressed group and a hyperactive control group were selected from a population of clinically disturbed children, while normal controls were selected from regular classrooms. As predicted, the depressed children exhibited reduced motivation, primarily because their expectations were pessimistic. Unexpected findings were that the depressives' expectations were not abnormally irrational; and that hyperactives exhibited optimistic expectations, inflated values, and, hence, inflated motivation--especially for tangible rewards. Cognitive therapy techniques that focus upon expectations were recommended for the treatment of both depressed and hyperactive children.

Intergenerational Patterns of Values and Autonomy Expectations in Cultures of Relatedness and Separatedness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Sunita Mahtani; Bond, Michael Harris; Deeds, Osvelia; Chung, Siu Fung

1999-01-01

Investigated value priorities and autonomy expectations in 59 pairs of Caucasian and 66 pairs of Asian teenagers and their mothers in Hong Kong. Findings support models that predict persistent family interdependence despite adoption of many individualist values in modernizing collectivist cultures. (SLD)

42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

Estimating a constant WTP for a QALY-a mission impossible?

PubMed

Sund, Björn; Svensson, Mikael

2017-09-21

Economic evaluations are an important input to decision-making and priority-setting in the health care sector. Measuring preferences for health improvements, as the demand-side value (willingness to pay) of gaining a quality-adjusted life year (QALY), is one relevant component in the interpretation of the results from health economic evaluations. Our article addresses whether willingness to pay for a QALY (WTP-Q) is sensitive to the size of the health differences and the probability for improvement. We use data from a contingent valuation survey based on 1400 respondents conducted in the spring of 2014. The results show that the expectation of sensitivity to scope, or higher WTP to the larger expected quality of life improvement, is not supported. We find WTP-Q values that conform reasonably well to previous studies in Sweden.

Academic Race Stereotypes, Academic Self-Concept, and Racial Centrality in African American Youth

PubMed Central

Okeke, Ndidi A.; Howard, Lionel C.; Kurtz-Costes, Beth; Rowley, Stephanie J.

2010-01-01

The relation between academic race stereotype endorsement and academic self-concept was examined in two studies of seventh- and eighth-grade African Americans. Based on expectancy-value theory, the authors hypothesized that academic race stereotype endorsement would be negatively related to self-perceptions. Furthermore, it was anticipated that the relation between stereotype endorsement and self-perceptions would be moderated by racial centrality. The hypothesis was supported in two independent samples. Among students with high racial centrality, endorsement of traditional race stereotypes was linked to lower self-perceptions of academic competence. The stereotype/self-concept relation was nonsignificant among youth for whom race was less central to their identities. These results confirm the supposition of expectancy-value theory and illustrate the interweaving of group and individual identity with motivational beliefs. PMID:20625536

Expectancy of Success, Subjective Task-Value, and Message Frame in the Appraisal of Value-Promoting Messages Made Prior to a High-Stakes Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Putwain, David W.; Symes, Wendy

2016-01-01

Previous research has examined how subjective task-value and expectancy of success influence the appraisal of value-promoting messages used by teachers prior to high-stakes examinations. The aim of this study was to examine whether message-frame (gain or loss-framed messages) also influences the appraisal of value-promoting messages. Two hundred…

Radiation and annealing response of WWER 440 beltline welding seams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viehrig, Hans-Werner; Houska, Mario; Altstadt, Eberhard

2015-01-01

The focus of this paper is on the irradiation response and the effect of thermal annealing in weld materials extracted from decommissioned WWER 440 reactor pressure vessels of the nuclear power plant Greifswald. The characterisation is based on the measurement of the hardness, the yield stress, the Master Curve reference temperature, T0, and the Charpy-V transition temperature through the thickness of multi-layer beltline welding seams in the irradiated and the thermally annealed condition. Additionally, the weld bead structure was characterised by light microscopic studies. We observed a large variation in the through thickness T0 values in the irradiated as well as in thermally annealed condition. The T0 values measured with the T-S-oriented Charpy size SE(B) specimens cut from different thickness locations of the multilayer welding seams strongly depend on the intrinsic weld bead structure along the crack tip. The Master Curve, T0, and Charpy-V, TT47J, based ductile-to-brittle transition temperature progressions through the thickness of the multi-layer welding seam do not correspond to the forecast according to the Russian code. In general, the fracture toughness values at cleavage failure, KJc, measured on SE(B) specimens from the irradiated and large-scale thermally annealed beltline welding seams follow the Master Curve description, but more than the expected number lie outside the curves for 2% and 98% fracture probability. In this case the test standard ASTM E1921 indicates the investigated multi-layer weld metal as not uniform. The multi modal Master Curve based approach describes the temperature dependence of the specimen size adjusted KJc-1T values well. Thermal annealing at 475 °C for 152 h results in the expected decrease of the hardness and tensile strength and the shift of Master Curve and Charpy-V based ductile-to-brittle transition temperatures to lower values.

No unified reward prediction error in local field potentials from the human nucleus accumbens: evidence from epilepsy patients

PubMed Central

Rutledge, Robb B.; Zaehle, Tino; Schmitt, Friedhelm C.; Kopitzki, Klaus; Kowski, Alexander B.; Voges, Jürgen; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Dolan, Raymond J.

2015-01-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), cyclic voltammetry, and single-unit electrophysiology studies suggest that signals measured in the nucleus accumbens (Nacc) during value-based decision making represent reward prediction errors (RPEs), the difference between actual and predicted rewards. Here, we studied the precise temporal and spectral pattern of reward-related signals in the human Nacc. We recorded local field potentials (LFPs) from the Nacc of six epilepsy patients during an economic decision-making task. On each trial, patients decided whether to accept or reject a gamble with equal probabilities of a monetary gain or loss. The behavior of four patients was consistent with choices being guided by value expectations. Expected value signals before outcome onset were observed in three of those patients, at varying latencies and with nonoverlapping spectral patterns. Signals after outcome onset were correlated with RPE regressors in all subjects. However, further analysis revealed that these signals were better explained as outcome valence rather than RPE signals, with gamble gains and losses differing in the power of beta oscillations and in evoked response amplitudes. Taken together, our results do not support the idea that postsynaptic potentials in the Nacc represent a RPE that unifies outcome magnitude and prior value expectation. We discuss the generalizability of our findings to healthy individuals and the relation of our results to measurements of RPE signals obtained from the Nacc with other methods. PMID:26019312

No unified reward prediction error in local field potentials from the human nucleus accumbens: evidence from epilepsy patients.

PubMed

Stenner, Max-Philipp; Rutledge, Robb B; Zaehle, Tino; Schmitt, Friedhelm C; Kopitzki, Klaus; Kowski, Alexander B; Voges, Jürgen; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Dolan, Raymond J

2015-08-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), cyclic voltammetry, and single-unit electrophysiology studies suggest that signals measured in the nucleus accumbens (Nacc) during value-based decision making represent reward prediction errors (RPEs), the difference between actual and predicted rewards. Here, we studied the precise temporal and spectral pattern of reward-related signals in the human Nacc. We recorded local field potentials (LFPs) from the Nacc of six epilepsy patients during an economic decision-making task. On each trial, patients decided whether to accept or reject a gamble with equal probabilities of a monetary gain or loss. The behavior of four patients was consistent with choices being guided by value expectations. Expected value signals before outcome onset were observed in three of those patients, at varying latencies and with nonoverlapping spectral patterns. Signals after outcome onset were correlated with RPE regressors in all subjects. However, further analysis revealed that these signals were better explained as outcome valence rather than RPE signals, with gamble gains and losses differing in the power of beta oscillations and in evoked response amplitudes. Taken together, our results do not support the idea that postsynaptic potentials in the Nacc represent a RPE that unifies outcome magnitude and prior value expectation. We discuss the generalizability of our findings to healthy individuals and the relation of our results to measurements of RPE signals obtained from the Nacc with other methods. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Initial cash/asset ratio and asset prices: an experimental study.

PubMed

Caginalp, G; Porter, D; Smith, V

1998-01-20

A series of experiments, in which nine participants trade an asset over 15 periods, test the hypothesis that an initial imbalance of asset/cash will influence the trading price over an extended time. Participants know at the outset that the asset or "stock" pays a single dividend with fixed expectation value at the end of the 15th period. In experiments with a greater total value of cash at the start, the mean prices during the trading periods are higher, compared with those with greater amount of asset, with a high degree of statistical significance. The difference is most significant at the outset and gradually tapers near the end of the experiment. The results are very surprising from a rational expectations and classical game theory perspective, because the possession of a large amount of cash does not lead to a simple motivation for a trader to bid excessively on a financial instrument. The gradual erosion of the difference toward the end of trading, however, suggests that fundamental value is approached belatedly, offering some consolation to the rational expectations theory. It also suggests that there is a time scale on which an evolution toward fundamental value occurs. The experimental results are qualitatively compatible with the price dynamics predicted by a system of differential equations based on asset flow. The results have broad implications for the marketing of securities, particularly initial and secondary public offerings, government bonds, etc., where excess supply has been conjectured to suppress prices.

Initial cash/asset ratio and asset prices: An experimental study

PubMed Central

Caginalp, Gunduz; Porter, David; Smith, Vernon

1998-01-01

A series of experiments, in which nine participants trade an asset over 15 periods, test the hypothesis that an initial imbalance of asset/cash will influence the trading price over an extended time. Participants know at the outset that the asset or “stock” pays a single dividend with fixed expectation value at the end of the 15th period. In experiments with a greater total value of cash at the start, the mean prices during the trading periods are higher, compared with those with greater amount of asset, with a high degree of statistical significance. The difference is most significant at the outset and gradually tapers near the end of the experiment. The results are very surprising from a rational expectations and classical game theory perspective, because the possession of a large amount of cash does not lead to a simple motivation for a trader to bid excessively on a financial instrument. The gradual erosion of the difference toward the end of trading, however, suggests that fundamental value is approached belatedly, offering some consolation to the rational expectations theory. It also suggests that there is a time scale on which an evolution toward fundamental value occurs. The experimental results are qualitatively compatible with the price dynamics predicted by a system of differential equations based on asset flow. The results have broad implications for the marketing of securities, particularly initial and secondary public offerings, government bonds, etc., where excess supply has been conjectured to suppress prices. PMID:11038619

Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

PubMed

Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

2017-06-01

Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

Simple and flexible SAS and SPSS programs for analyzing lag-sequential categorical data.

PubMed

O'Connor, B P

1999-11-01

This paper describes simple and flexible programs for analyzing lag-sequential categorical data, using SAS and SPSS. The programs read a stream of codes and produce a variety of lag-sequential statistics, including transitional frequencies, expected transitional frequencies, transitional probabilities, adjusted residuals, z values, Yule's Q values, likelihood ratio tests of stationarity across time and homogeneity across groups or segments, transformed kappas for unidirectional dependence, bidirectional dependence, parallel and nonparallel dominance, and significance levels based on both parametric and randomization tests.

Symplectic semiclassical wave packet dynamics II: non-Gaussian states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohsawa, Tomoki

2018-05-01

We generalize our earlier work on the symplectic/Hamiltonian formulation of the dynamics of the Gaussian wave packet to non-Gaussian semiclassical wave packets. We find the symplectic forms and asymptotic expansions of the Hamiltonians associated with these semiclassical wave packets, and obtain Hamiltonian systems governing their dynamics. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the dynamics give a very good approximation to the short-time dynamics of the expectation values computed by a method based on Egorov’s theorem or the initial value representation.

Examining the Feasibility and Utility of Estimating Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (via a Nonparametric Approach) as Part of the Reimbursement Decision-Making Process in Ireland: Application to Drugs for Cancer.

PubMed

McCullagh, Laura; Schmitz, Susanne; Barry, Michael; Walsh, Cathal

2017-11-01

In Ireland, all new drugs for which reimbursement by the healthcare payer is sought undergo a health technology assessment by the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics. The National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics estimate expected value of perfect information but not partial expected value of perfect information (owing to computational expense associated with typical methodologies). The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility and utility of estimating partial expected value of perfect information via a computationally efficient, non-parametric regression approach. This was a retrospective analysis of evaluations on drugs for cancer that had been submitted to the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics (January 2010 to December 2014 inclusive). Drugs were excluded if cost effective at the submitted price. Drugs were excluded if concerns existed regarding the validity of the applicants' submission or if cost-effectiveness model functionality did not allow required modifications to be made. For each included drug (n = 14), value of information was estimated at the final reimbursement price, at a threshold equivalent to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at that price. The expected value of perfect information was estimated from probabilistic analysis. Partial expected value of perfect information was estimated via a non-parametric approach. Input parameters with a population value at least €1 million were identified as potential targets for research. All partial estimates were determined within minutes. Thirty parameters (across nine models) each had a value of at least €1 million. These were categorised. Collectively, survival analysis parameters were valued at €19.32 million, health state utility parameters at €15.81 million and parameters associated with the cost of treating adverse effects at €6.64 million. Those associated with drug acquisition costs and with the cost of care were valued at €6.51 million and €5.71 million, respectively. This research demonstrates that the estimation of partial expected value of perfect information via this computationally inexpensive approach could be considered feasible as part of the health technology assessment process for reimbursement purposes within the Irish healthcare system. It might be a useful tool in prioritising future research to decrease decision uncertainty.

Women's needs and expectations during normal labor and delivery

PubMed Central

Iravani, Mina; Zarean, Elahe; Janghorbani, Mohsen; Bahrami, Masod

2015-01-01

Background: Pregnancy and birth are unique processes for women. Women and families hold different expectation during childbearing based on their knowledge, experiences, belief systems, culture, and social and family backgrounds. These differences should be understood and respected, and care is adapted and organized to meet the individualized needs of women and families. The purpose of this study was to explore Iranian parturient needs, values and preferences during normal labor and delivery. Materials and Methods: An exploratory qualitative study was used. Twenty-four parturient women from three governmental medical training centers in Isfahan, Iran were recruited using purposive sampling. Participants were recruited to low-risk women after they had given birth, but before they were discharged from hospital. Data were collected through semi-structured in-depth interviews, informal observations and field notes. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed by the conventional content analysis according to Graneheim and Lundman approach. Results: Women's needs and expectations fell into seven main categories: Physiological, psychological, informational, social and relational, esteem, security and medical needs. All of the key needs in these data relates to a fundamental need, named “sense of control and empowerment in childbirth.” Conclusion: Knowing a woman's needs, values, preferences and expectations during normal labor and delivery assists healthcare professionals especially midwives in providing high-quality care to parturient women. PMID:25767817

Hypothetical decision making in schizophrenia: The role of expected value computation and “irrational” biases

PubMed Central

Brown, Jaime K.; Waltz, James A.; Strauss, Gregory P.; McMahon, Robert P.; Frank, Michael J.; Gold, James M.

2013-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the contributions to decision making (DM) deficits in schizophrenia (SZ) patients, of expected value (EV) estimation and loss aversion. Patients diagnosed with SZ (n=46) and healthy controls (n=34) completed two gambling tasks. In one task, participants chose between two options with the same EV across two conditions: Loss frames and Keep frames. A second task involved accepting or rejecting gambles, in which gain and loss amounts varied, determining the EV of each trial. SZ patients showed a reduced “framing effect” relative to controls, as they did not show an increased tendency to gamble when faced with a certain loss. SZ patients also showed a reduced tendency to modify behavior as a function of EV. The degree to which choices tracked EV correlated significantly with several cognitive measures in both patients and controls. SZ patients show distinct deviations from normal behavior under risk when their decisions are based on prospective outcomes. These deviations are two-fold: cognitive deficits prevent value-based DM in more-impaired patients, and in less-impaired patients there is a lack of influence from well-established subjective biases found in healthy people. These abnormalities likely affect every-day DM strategies in schizophrenia patients. PMID:23664664

Hypothetical decision making in schizophrenia: the role of expected value computation and "irrational" biases.

PubMed

Brown, Jaime K; Waltz, James A; Strauss, Gregory P; McMahon, Robert P; Frank, Michael J; Gold, James M

2013-09-30

The aim of the present study was to examine the contributions to decision making (DM) deficits in schizophrenia (SZ) patients of expected value (EV) estimation and loss aversion. Patients diagnosed with SZ (n=46) and healthy controls (n=34) completed two gambling tasks. In one task, participants chose between two options with the same EV across two conditions: Loss frames and Keep frames. A second task involved accepting or rejecting gambles, in which gain and loss amounts varied, determining the EV of each trial. SZ patients showed a reduced "framing effect" relative to controls, as they did not show an increased tendency to gamble when faced with a certain loss. SZ patients also showed a reduced tendency to modify behavior as a function of EV. The degree to which choices tracked EV correlated significantly with several cognitive measures in both patients and controls. SZ patients show distinct deviations from normal behavior under risk when their decisions are based on prospective outcomes. These deviations are two-fold: cognitive deficits prevent value-based DM in more-impaired patients, and in less-impaired patients there is a lack of influence from well-established subjective biases found in healthy people. These abnormalities likely affect everyday DM strategies in schizophrenia patients. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A rights-based proposal for managing faith-based values and expectations of migrants at end-of-life illustrated by an empirical study involving South Asians in the UK.

PubMed

Samanta, Jo; Samanta, Ash; Madhloom, Omar

2018-06-08

International migration is an important issue for many high-income countries and is accompanied by opportunities as well as challenges. South Asians are the largest minority ethnic group in the United Kingdom, and this diaspora is reflective of the growing diversity of British society. An empirical study was performed to ascertain the faith-based values, beliefs, views and attitudes of participants in relation to their perception of issues pertaining to end-of-life care. Empirical observations from this study, as well as the extant knowledge-base from the literature, are used to support and contextualise our reflections against a socio-legal backdrop. We argue for accommodation of faith-based values of migrants at end-of-life within normative structures of receiving countries. We posit the ethically relevant principles of inclusiveness, integration and embedment, for an innovative bioethical framework as a vehicle for accommodating faith-based values and needs of migrants at end-of-life. These tenets work conjunctively, as well as individually, in respect of individual care, enabling processes and procedures, and ultimately for formulating policy and strategy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Object detection with a multistatic array using singular value decomposition

DOEpatents

Hallquist, Aaron T.; Chambers, David H.

2014-07-01

A method and system for detecting the presence of subsurface objects within a medium is provided. In some embodiments, the detection system operates in a multistatic mode to collect radar return signals generated by an array of transceiver antenna pairs that is positioned across a surface and that travels down the surface. The detection system converts the return signals from a time domain to a frequency domain, resulting in frequency return signals. The detection system then performs a singular value decomposition for each frequency to identify singular values for each frequency. The detection system then detects the presence of a subsurface object based on a comparison of the identified singular values to expected singular values when no subsurface object is present.

Microscopic study of spin cut-off factors of nuclear level densities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gholami, M.; Kildir, M.; Behkami, A. N.

Level densities and spin cut-off factors have been investigated within the microscopic approach based on the BCS Hamiltonian. In particular, the spin cut-off parameters have been calculated at neutron binding energies over a large range of nuclear mass using the BCS theory. The spin cut-off parameters {sigma}{sup 2}(E) have also been obtained from the Gilbert and Cameron expression and from rigid body calculations. The results were compared with their corresponding macroscopic values. It was found that the values of {sigma}{sup 2}(E) did not increase smoothly with A as expected based on macroscopic theory. Instead, the values of {sigma}{sup 2}(E) showmore » structure reflecting the angular momentum of the shell model orbitals near the Fermi energy.« less

Comment on "Propionaldehyde infrared cross-sections and band strengths" by B. Köroğlu et al. [1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Wagner Eduardo; Bruns, Roy Edward

2016-08-01

The propionaldehyde infrared regional integrated area reported by Köroğlu et al. were re-examined. Even though the spectrum seems to be recorded correctly, the comparison between their values with the data obtained by the integration of the propionaldehyde spectrum available in the PNNL database suggests that a scaling factor of 2.3025 (the ratio between ln and log bases) is the reason for their results being lower than those expected based on other literature values and quantum chemical estimates. Revised values were then reported for the four spectral regions evaluated by these authors, resulting in a much better agreement between both theoretical and experimental results for not only for this molecule but also for others like acetone and acetaldehyde.

Normative discourses on the desire to have children.

PubMed

Vargas, Eliane Portes; Moás, Luciane da Costa

2010-08-01

Reflections on normative discourses on sexuality, family and reproduction are shown, promoted by medical and juridical knowledge in modern society. This study was based on the assumption that changes and maintenance of values and practices coexist in the current discourses on the desire to have children, expressed as claims in the dimension of sexual and reproductive rights, with new demands in the sphere of public and health policies. The current value attributed to family is founded on the model of modern conjugal family, which can be observed in the changes that have occurred in family relations and sexual identities. Based on a new configuration of values, the expectation of paternity and maternity has partly become a value of the homosexual relationship. However, despite changes in the sphere of family relations and social identities, the centrality of the heterosexual couple prevails in the medical and juridical discourse on the desire to have children.

Values and public acceptability dimensions of sustainable egg production.

PubMed

Thompson, P B; Appleby, M; Busch, L; Kalof, L; Miele, M; Norwood, B F; Pajor, E

2011-09-01

The attributes of egg production that elicit values-based responses include the price and availability of eggs, environmental impacts, food safety or health concerns, and animal welfare. Different social groups have distinct interests regarding the sustainability of egg production that reflect these diverse values. Current scientifically based knowledge about how values and attitudes in these groups can be characterized is uneven and must be derived from studies conducted at varying times and using incomplete study methods. In general, some producer and consumer interests are translated through markets and are mediated by market mechanisms, whereas others are poorly reflected by economic behavior. An array of survey and focus group research has been performed to elicit consumer and activist beliefs about performance goals they would expect from an egg production system. These studies provide evidence that consumers' market behavior may be at odds with their ethical and political beliefs about performance goals.

Professionalism and medicine's social contract with society.

PubMed

Cruess, Sylvia R

2006-08-01

Medicine's relationship with society has been described as a social contract: an "as if" contract with obligations and expectations on the part of both society and medicine, "each of the other". The term is often used without elaboration by those writing on professionalism in medicine. Based on the literature, society's expectations of medicine are: the services of the healer, assured competence, altruistic service, morality and integrity, accountability, transparency, objective advice, and promotion of the public good. Medicine's expectations of society are: trust, autonomy, self-regulation, a health care system that is value-driven and adequately funded, participation in public policy, shared responsibility for health, a monopoly, and both non-financial and financial rewards. The recognition of these expectations is important as they serve as the basis of a series of obligations which are necessary for the maintenance of medicine as a profession. Mutual trust and reasonable demands are required of both parties to the contract.

Factor selection for service quality evaluation: a hospital case study.

PubMed

Ameryoun, Ahmad; Najafi, Seyedvahid; Nejati-Zarnaqi, Bayram; Khalilifar, Seyed Omid; Ajam, Mahdi; Ansarimoghadam, Ahmad

2017-02-13

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a systematic approach to predict service quality dimension's influence on service quality using a novel analysis based on data envelopment and SERVQUAL. Design/methodology/approach To assess hospital service quality in Tehran, expectation and perception of those who received the services were evaluated using SERVQUAL. The hospital service quality dimensions were found by exploratory factor analysis (EFA). To compare customer expectation and perception, perceived service quality index (PSQI) was measured using a new method based on common weights. A novel sensitivity approach was used to test the service quality factor's impact on the PSQI. Findings A new service quality dimension named "trust in services" was found using EFA, which is not an original SERVQUAL factor. The approach was applied to assess the hospital's service quality. Since the PSQI value was 0.76 it showed that improvements are needed to meet customer expectations. The results showed the factor order that affect PSQI. "Trust in services" has the strongest influence on PSQI followed by "tangibles," "assurance," "empathy," and "responsiveness," respectively. Practical implications This work gives managers insight into service quality by following a systematic method; i.e., measuring perceived service quality from the customer viewpoint and service factors' impact on customer perception. Originality/value The procedure helps managers to select the required service quality dimensions which need improvement and predict their effects on customer perception.

Comparing efficacy of reduced-toxicity allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation with conventional chemo-(immuno) therapy in patients with relapsed or refractory CLL: a Markov decision analysis.

PubMed

Kharfan-Dabaja, M A; Pidala, J; Kumar, A; Terasawa, T; Djulbegovic, B

2012-09-01

Despite therapeutic advances, relapsed/refractory CLL, particularly after fludarabine-based regimens, remains a major challenge for which optimal therapy is undefined. No randomized comparative data exist to suggest the superiority of reduced-toxicity allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (RT-allo-HCT) over conventional chemo-(immuno) therapy (CCIT). By using estimates from a systematic review and by meta-analysis of available published evidence, we constructed a Markov decision model to examine these competing modalities. Cohort analysis demonstrated superior outcome for RT-allo-HCT, with a 10-month overall life expectancy (and 6-month quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE)) advantage over CCIT. Although the model was sensitive to changes in base-case assumptions and transition probabilities, RT-allo-HCT provided superior overall life expectancy through a range of values supported by the meta-analysis. QALE was superior for RT-allo-HCT compared with CCIT. This conclusion was sensitive to change in the anticipated state utility associated with the post-allogeneic HCT state; however, RT-allo-HCT remained the optimal strategy for values supported by existing literature. This analysis provides a quantitative comparison of outcomes between RT-allo-HCT and CCIT for relapsed/refractory CLL in the absence of randomized comparative trials. Confirmation of these findings requires a prospective randomized trial, which compares the most effective RT-allo-HCT and CCIT regimens for relapsed/refractory CLL.

7 CFR 762.124 - Interest rates, terms, charges, and fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... economic reverses. (2) The final maturity date for each loan cannot exceed 7 years from the date of the... farm, or recover from a disaster or an economical reversal. (2) Loans with balloon installments must... payment comes due based on the expected financial condition of the operation, the depreciated value of the...

7 CFR 762.124 - Interest rates, terms, charges, and fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... economic reverses. (2) The final maturity date for each loan cannot exceed 7 years from the date of the... farm, or recover from a disaster or an economical reversal. (2) Loans with balloon installments must... payment comes due based on the expected financial condition of the operation, the depreciated value of the...

7 CFR 762.124 - Interest rates, terms, charges, and fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... economic reverses. (2) The final maturity date for each loan cannot exceed 7 years from the date of the... farm, or recover from a disaster or an economical reversal. (2) Loans with balloon installments must... payment comes due based on the expected financial condition of the operation, the depreciated value of the...

Creating a Campus Community for Conversation about Assessing Student Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Musun, Linda; Baker, Aaron D.; Fulmer, Jim

2006-01-01

While assessment of student learning outcomes has become standard operating procedure on virtually every campus, the driving forces for pursuing assessment remain primarily external. For that to change, campuses must evolve toward a culture of assessment based on the shared values and expectations that arise out of a community. The first step in…

In Addition Afterschool Mathematics Program: Principles, Practice, and Pitfalls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McVarish, Judith; Birkmeier, Patricia

2004-01-01

Afterschool math hours are most often spent on homework help, tutoring, drill, and test-preparation with instructors who may not be certified teachers or mathematics educators. While such "extra math help" may be of value, it is unreasonable to expect students to enjoy learning experiences based on workbook-style exercises. The In…

Academic Race Stereotypes, Academic Self-Concept, and Racial Centrality in African American Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okeke, Ndidi A.; Howard, Lionel C.; Kurtz-Costes, Beth; Rowley, Stephanie J.

2009-01-01

The relation between academic race stereotype endorsement and academic self-concept was examined in two studies of seventh- and eighth-grade African Americans. Based on expectancy-value theory, the authors hypothesized that academic race stereotype endorsement would be negatively related to self-perceptions. Furthermore, it was anticipated that…

Aligning Professional Skills and Active Learning Methods: An Application for Information and Communications Technology Engineering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Llorens, Ariadna; Berbegal-Mirabent, Jasmina; Llinàs-Audet, Xavier

2017-01-01

Engineering education is facing new challenges to effectively provide the appropriate skills to future engineering professionals according to market demands. This study proposes a model based on active learning methods, which is expected to facilitate the acquisition of the professional skills most highly valued in the information and…

A feminist perspective on nursing education.

PubMed

Hedin, B A; Donovan, J

1989-01-01

Models of nursing education that mirror the human, caring side of nursing that we expect students to put into practice in the clinical arena are needed in the classroom. In that interest, the authors explore the relationship between feminism and nursing education and outline the characteristics of a nursing education process based on feminist principles and values.

Weighting-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Causal Mediation Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Guanglei; Qin, Xu; Yang, Fan

2018-01-01

Through a sensitivity analysis, the analyst attempts to determine whether a conclusion of causal inference could be easily reversed by a plausible violation of an identification assumption. Analytic conclusions that are harder to alter by such a violation are expected to add a higher value to scientific knowledge about causality. This article…

77 FR 34326 - Medicare Program; Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment Systems for Acute Care Hospitals and the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-11

... Purchasing (VBP) Program, we inadvertently omitted data from the table entitled ``Proposed Performance..., Proposed Hospital Inpatient Value- Based Purchasing (VBP) Program Adjustment Factors for FY 2013, as a... partial paragraph-- (1) Lines 2 and 3, the phrase ``all hospitals are expected to experience a decrease...

Value of Implementation of Strategies to Increase the Adherence of Health Professionals and Cancer Survivors to Guideline-Based Physical Exercise.

PubMed

Mewes, Janne C; Steuten, Lotte M G; IJsbrandy, Charlotte; IJzerman, Maarten J; van Harten, Wim H

2017-12-01

To increase the adherence of health professionals and cancer survivors to evidence-based physical exercise, effective implementation strategies (ISTs) are required. To examine to what extent these ISTs provide value for money and which IST has the highest expected value. The net benefit framework of health economic evaluations is used to conduct a value-of-implementation analysis of nine ISTs. Seven are directed to health professionals and two to cancer survivors. The analysis consists of four steps: 1) analyzing the expected value of perfect implementation (EVPIM); 2) assessing the estimated costs of the various ISTs; 3) comparing the ISTs' costs with the EVPIM; and 4) assessing the total net benefit (TNB) of the ISTs. These steps are followed to identify which strategy has the greatest value. The EVPIM for physical exercise in the Netherlands is €293 million. The total costs for the ISTs range from €34,000 for printed educational materials for professionals to €120 million for financial incentives for patients, and thus all are cost-effective. The TNB of the ISTs that are directed to professionals ranges from €5.7 million for printed educational materials to €30.9 million for reminder systems. Of the strategies that are directed to patients, only the motivational program had a positive net benefit of €100.4 million. All the ISTs for cancer survivors, except for financial incentives, had a positive TNB. The largest improvements in adherence were created by a motivational program for patients, followed by a reminder system for professionals. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictions of Daily Milk and Fat Yields, Major Groups of Fatty Acids, and C18:1 cis-9 from Single Milking Data without a Milking Interval

PubMed Central

Arnould, Valérie M. R.; Reding, Romain; Bormann, Jeanne; Gengler, Nicolas; Soyeurt, Hélène

2015-01-01

Simple Summary Reducing the frequency of milk recording decreases the costs of official milk recording. However, this approach can negatively affect the accuracy of predicting daily yields. Equations to predict daily yield from morning or evening data were developed in this study for fatty milk components from traits recorded easily by milk recording organizations. The correlation values ranged from 96.4% to 97.6% (96.9% to 98.3%) when the daily yields were estimated from the morning (evening) milkings. The simplicity of the proposed models which do not include the milking interval should facilitate their use by breeding and milk recording organizations. Abstract Reducing the frequency of milk recording would help reduce the costs of official milk recording. However, this approach could also negatively affect the accuracy of predicting daily yields. This problem has been investigated in numerous studies. In addition, published equations take into account milking intervals (MI), and these are often not available and/or are unreliable in practice. The first objective of this study was to propose models in which the MI was replaced by a combination of data easily recorded by dairy farmers. The second objective was to further investigate the fatty acids (FA) present in milk. Equations to predict daily yield from AM or PM data were based on a calibration database containing 79,971 records related to 51 traits [milk yield (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily); fat content (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily); fat yield (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily; g/day); levels of seven different FAs or FA groups (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily; g/dL milk), and the corresponding FA yields for these seven FA types/groups (expected AM, expected PM, and expected daily; g/day)]. These equations were validated using two distinct external datasets. The results obtained from the proposed models were compared to previously published results for models which included a MI effect. The corresponding correlation values ranged from 96.4% to 97.6% when the daily yields were estimated from the AM milkings and ranged from 96.9% to 98.3% when the daily yields were estimated from the PM milkings. The simplicity of these proposed models should facilitate their use by breeding and milk recording organizations. PMID:26479379

Model-based predictions for dopamine.

PubMed

Langdon, Angela J; Sharpe, Melissa J; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey; Niv, Yael

2018-04-01

Phasic dopamine responses are thought to encode a prediction-error signal consistent with model-free reinforcement learning theories. However, a number of recent findings highlight the influence of model-based computations on dopamine responses, and suggest that dopamine prediction errors reflect more dimensions of an expected outcome than scalar reward value. Here, we review a selection of these recent results and discuss the implications and complications of model-based predictions for computational theories of dopamine and learning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Optimal no-go theorem on hidden-variable predictions of effect expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blass, Andreas; Gurevich, Yuri

2018-03-01

No-go theorems prove that, under reasonable assumptions, classical hidden-variable theories cannot reproduce the predictions of quantum mechanics. Traditional no-go theorems proved that hidden-variable theories cannot predict correctly the values of observables. Recent expectation no-go theorems prove that hidden-variable theories cannot predict the expectations of observables. We prove the strongest expectation-focused no-go theorem to date. It is optimal in the sense that the natural weakenings of the assumptions and the natural strengthenings of the conclusion make the theorem fail. The literature on expectation no-go theorems strongly suggests that the expectation-focused approach is more general than the value-focused one. We establish that the expectation approach is not more general.

Values education: a new direction for medical education.

PubMed Central

Grundstein-Amado, R

1995-01-01

This paper suggests that medical education should redirect resources to values education, specifically developing new strategies to improve the process of clarification of values. The author suggests using the values journal method which is based on a systematic record of students' personal value systems reflected in their stories and life experience; and on their responses to case presentation. Generating a personal values journal helps students define who they are, what their social and professional roles are, what their expectations are and where they are going. Keeping values journals promotes students' decision-making capacity, and equips them with the necessary skills to teach their future patients how to generate their own value systems. The development of a well defined values journal is a preparatory stage for active participation in clinical conferences or group discussion, and for effective communal dialogue among the group's members. PMID:7674284

Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems.

PubMed

Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K; Fenichel, Eli P

2017-06-20

We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio's performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth.

Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

PubMed Central

Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K.; Fenichel, Eli P.

2017-01-01

We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio’s performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth. PMID:28588145

Water in dense molecular clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wannier, P.G.; Kuiper, T.B.H.; Frerking, M.A.

1991-08-01

The G.P. Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO) was used to make initial observations of the half-millimeter ground-state transition of water in seven giant molecular clouds and in two late-type stars. No significant detections were made, and the resulting upper limits are significantly below those expected from other, indirect observations and from several theoretical models. The implied interstellar H2O/CO abundance is less than 0.003 in the cores of three giant molecular clouds. This value is less than expected from cloud chemistry models and also than estimates based on HDO and H3O(+) observations. 78 refs.

Looking at patients' choices through the lens of expected utility: a critique and research agenda.

PubMed

Russell, Louise B; Schwartz, Alan

2012-01-01

The expected utility framework underlies much research in medical decision making. Because the framework requires decisions to be decomposed into probabilities of states and the values of those states, researchers have investigated the two components separately from each other and from patients' actual decisions. The authors propose that it would be productive to focus more research on the relationships among risk perceptions, outcome valuations, and choices in the same decision makers. They outline exploratory analyses based on two existing national surveys, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the Joint Canada/United States Survey of Health.

Expected net present value of sample information: from burden to investment.

PubMed

Hall, Peter S; Edlin, Richard; Kharroubi, Samer; Gregory, Walter; McCabe, Christopher

2012-01-01

The Expected Value of Information Framework has been proposed as a method for identifying when health care technologies should be immediately reimbursed and when any reimbursement should be withheld while awaiting more evidence. This framework assesses the value of obtaining additional evidence to inform a current reimbursement decision. This represents the burden of not having the additional evidence at the time of the decision. However, when deciding whether to reimburse now or await more evidence, decision makers need to know the value of investing in more research to inform a future decision. Assessing this value requires consideration of research costs, research time, and what happens to patients while the research is undertaken and after completion. The investigators describe a development of the calculation of the expected value of sample information that assesses the value of investing in further research, including an only-in-research strategy and an only-with-research strategy.

Reference-dependent risk sensitivity as rational inference.

PubMed

Denrell, Jerker C

2015-07-01

Existing explanations of reference-dependent risk sensitivity attribute it to cognitive imperfections and heuristic choice processes. This article shows that behavior consistent with an S-shaped value function could be an implication of rational inferences about the expected values of alternatives. Theoretically, I demonstrate that even a risk-neutral Bayesian decision maker, who is uncertain about the reliability of observations, should use variability in observed outcomes as a predictor of low expected value for outcomes above a reference level, and as a predictor of high expected value for outcomes below a reference level. Empirically, I show that combining past outcomes using an S-shaped value function leads to accurate predictions about future values. The theory also offers a rationale for why risk sensitivity consistent with an inverse S-shaped value function should occur in experiments on decisions from experience with binary payoff distributions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

PBOOST: a GPU-based tool for parallel permutation tests in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Yang, Guangyuan; Jiang, Wei; Yang, Qiang; Yu, Weichuan

2015-05-01

The importance of testing associations allowing for interactions has been demonstrated by Marchini et al. (2005). A fast method detecting associations allowing for interactions has been proposed by Wan et al. (2010a). The method is based on likelihood ratio test with the assumption that the statistic follows the χ(2) distribution. Many single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) pairs with significant associations allowing for interactions have been detected using their method. However, the assumption of χ(2) test requires the expected values in each cell of the contingency table to be at least five. This assumption is violated in some identified SNP pairs. In this case, likelihood ratio test may not be applicable any more. Permutation test is an ideal approach to checking the P-values calculated in likelihood ratio test because of its non-parametric nature. The P-values of SNP pairs having significant associations with disease are always extremely small. Thus, we need a huge number of permutations to achieve correspondingly high resolution for the P-values. In order to investigate whether the P-values from likelihood ratio tests are reliable, a fast permutation tool to accomplish large number of permutations is desirable. We developed a permutation tool named PBOOST. It is based on GPU with highly reliable P-value estimation. By using simulation data, we found that the P-values from likelihood ratio tests will have relative error of >100% when 50% cells in the contingency table have expected count less than five or when there is zero expected count in any of the contingency table cells. In terms of speed, PBOOST completed 10(7) permutations for a single SNP pair from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) genome data (Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, 2007) within 1 min on a single Nvidia Tesla M2090 device, while it took 60 min in a single CPU Intel Xeon E5-2650 to finish the same task. More importantly, when simultaneously testing 256 SNP pairs for 10(7) permutations, our tool took only 5 min, while the CPU program took 10 h. By permuting on a GPU cluster consisting of 40 nodes, we completed 10(12) permutations for all 280 SNP pairs reported with P-values smaller than 1.6 × 10⁻¹² in the WTCCC datasets in 1 week. The source code and sample data are available at http://bioinformatics.ust.hk/PBOOST.zip. gyang@ust.hk; eeyu@ust.hk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The artificial pancreas: evaluating risk of hypoglycaemia following errors that can be expected with prolonged at-home use.

PubMed

Wolpert, H; Kavanagh, M; Atakov-Castillo, A; Steil, G M

2016-02-01

Artificial pancreas systems show benefit in closely monitored at-home studies, but may not have sufficient power to assess safety during infrequent, but expected, system or user errors. The aim of this study was to assess the safety of an artificial pancreas system emulating the β-cell when the glucose value used for control is improperly calibrated and participants forget to administer pre-meal insulin boluses. Artificial pancreas control was performed in a clinic research centre on three separate occasions each lasting from 10 p.m. to 2 p.m. Sensor glucose values normally used for artificial pancreas control were replaced with scaled blood glucose values calculated to be 20% lower than, equal to or 33% higher than the true blood glucose. Safe control was defined as blood glucose between 3.9 and 8.3 mmol/l. Artificial pancreas control resulted in fasting scaled blood glucose values not different from target (6.67 mmol/l) at any scaling factor. Meal control with scaled blood glucose 33% higher than blood glucose resulted in supplemental carbohydrate to prevent hypoglycaemia in four of six participants during breakfast, and one participant during the night. In all instances, scaled blood glucose reported blood glucose as safe. Outpatient trials evaluating artificial pancreas performance based on sensor glucose may not detect hypoglycaemia when sensor glucose reads higher than blood glucose. Because these errors are expected to occur, in-hospital artificial pancreas studies using supplemental carbohydrate in anticipation of hypoglycaemia, which allow safety to be assessed in a controlled non-significant environment should be considered as an alternative. Inpatient studies provide a definitive alternative to model-based computer simulations and can be conducted in parallel with closely monitored outpatient artificial pancreas studies used to assess benefit. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

Linkage disequilibrium, SNP frequency change due to selection, and association mapping in popcorn chromosome regions containing QTLs for quality traits

PubMed Central

Paes, Geísa Pinheiro; Viana, José Marcelo Soriano; Silva, Fabyano Fonseca e; Mundim, Gabriel Borges

2016-01-01

Abstract The objectives of this study were to assess linkage disequilibrium (LD) and selection-induced changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequency, and to perform association mapping in popcorn chromosome regions containing quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for quality traits. Seven tropical and two temperate popcorn populations were genotyped for 96 SNPs chosen in chromosome regions containing QTLs for quality traits. The populations were phenotyped for expansion volume, 100-kernel weight, kernel sphericity, and kernel density. The LD statistics were the difference between the observed and expected haplotype frequencies (D), the proportion of D relative to the expected maximum value in the population, and the square of the correlation between the values of alleles at two loci. Association mapping was based on least squares and Bayesian approaches. In the tropical populations, D-values greater than 0.10 were observed for SNPs separated by 100-150 Mb, while most of the D-values in the temperate populations were less than 0.05. Selection for expansion volume indirectly led to increase in LD values, population differentiation, and significant changes in SNP frequency. Some associations were observed for expansion volume and the other quality traits. The candidate genes are involved with starch, storage protein, lipid, and cell wall polysaccharides synthesis. PMID:27007903

Linkage disequilibrium, SNP frequency change due to selection, and association mapping in popcorn chromosome regions containing QTLs for quality traits.

PubMed

Paes, Geísa Pinheiro; Viana, José Marcelo Soriano; Silva, Fabyano Fonseca E; Mundim, Gabriel Borges

2016-03-01

The objectives of this study were to assess linkage disequilibrium (LD) and selection-induced changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequency, and to perform association mapping in popcorn chromosome regions containing quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for quality traits. Seven tropical and two temperate popcorn populations were genotyped for 96 SNPs chosen in chromosome regions containing QTLs for quality traits. The populations were phenotyped for expansion volume, 100-kernel weight, kernel sphericity, and kernel density. The LD statistics were the difference between the observed and expected haplotype frequencies (D), the proportion of D relative to the expected maximum value in the population, and the square of the correlation between the values of alleles at two loci. Association mapping was based on least squares and Bayesian approaches. In the tropical populations, D-values greater than 0.10 were observed for SNPs separated by 100-150 Mb, while most of the D-values in the temperate populations were less than 0.05. Selection for expansion volume indirectly led to increase in LD values, population differentiation, and significant changes in SNP frequency. Some associations were observed for expansion volume and the other quality traits. The candidate genes are involved with starch, storage protein, lipid, and cell wall polysaccharides synthesis.

Exact Holography of Massive M2-brane Theories and Entanglement Entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Dongmin; Kim, Yoonbai; Kwon, O.-Kab; Tolla, D. D.

2018-01-01

We test the gauge/gravity duality between the N = 6 mass-deformed ABJM theory with Uk(N) × U-k(N) gauge symmetry and the 11-dimensional supergravity on LLM geometries with SO(4)=ℤk × SO(4)=ℤk isometry. Our analysis is based on the evaluation of vacuum expectation values of chiral primary operators from the supersymmetric vacua of mass-deformed ABJM theory and from the implementation of Kaluza-Klein (KK) holography to the LLM geometries. We focus on the chiral primary operator (CPO) with conformal dimension Δ = 1. The non-vanishing vacuum expectation value (vev) implies the breaking of conformal symmetry. In that case, we show that the variation of the holographic entanglement entropy (HEE) from it's value in the CFT, is related to the non-vanishing one-point function due to the relevant deformation as well as the source field. Applying Ryu Takayanagi's HEE conjecture to the 4-dimensional gravity solutions, which are obtained from the KK reduction of the 11-dimensional LLM solutions, we calculate the variation of the HEE. We show how the vev and the value of the source field determine the HEE.

A new method based on the Butler-Volmer formalism to evaluate voltammetric cation and anion sensors.

PubMed

Cano, Manuel; Rodríguez-Amaro, Rafael; Fernández Romero, Antonio J

2008-12-11

A new method based on the Butler-Volmer formalism is applied to assess the capability of two voltammetric ion sensors based on polypyrrole films: PPy/DBS and PPy/ClO4 modified electrodes were studied as voltammetric cation and anion sensors, respectively. The reversible potential versus electrolyte concentrations semilogarithm plots provided positive calibration slopes for PPy/DBS and negative ones for PPy/ClO4, as was expected from the proposed method and that based on the Nernst equation. The slope expressions deduced from Butler-Volmer include the electron-transfer coefficient, which allows slope values different from the ideal Nernstian value to be explained. Both polymeric films exhibited a degree of ion-selectivity when they were immersed in mixed-analyte solutions. Selectivity coefficients for the two proposed voltammetric cation and anion sensors were obtained by several experimental methods, including the separated solution method (SSM) and matched potential method (MPM). The K values acquired by the different methods were very close for both polymeric sensors.

Statistical lamb wave localization based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harley, Joel B.

2018-04-01

Guided wave localization methods based on delay-and-sum imaging, matched field processing, and other techniques have been designed and researched to create images that locate and describe structural damage. The maximum value of these images typically represent an estimated damage location. Yet, it is often unclear if this maximum value, or any other value in the image, is a statistically significant indicator of damage. Furthermore, there are currently few, if any, approaches to assess the statistical significance of guided wave localization images. As a result, we present statistical delay-and-sum and statistical matched field processing localization methods to create statistically significant images of damage. Our framework uses constant rate of false alarm statistics and extreme value theory to detect damage with little prior information. We demonstrate our methods with in situ guided wave data from an aluminum plate to detect two 0.75 cm diameter holes. Our results show an expected improvement in statistical significance as the number of sensors increase. With seventeen sensors, both methods successfully detect damage with statistical significance.

To t-Test or Not to t-Test? A p-Values-Based Point of View in the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Framework.

PubMed

Vexler, Albert; Yu, Jihnhee

2018-04-13

A common statistical doctrine supported by many introductory courses and textbooks is that t-test type procedures based on normally distributed data points are anticipated to provide a standard in decision-making. In order to motivate scholars to examine this convention, we introduce a simple approach based on graphical tools of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, a well-established biostatistical methodology. In this context, we propose employing a p-values-based method, taking into account the stochastic nature of p-values. We focus on the modern statistical literature to address the expected p-value (EPV) as a measure of the performance of decision-making rules. During the course of our study, we extend the EPV concept to be considered in terms of the ROC curve technique. This provides expressive evaluations and visualizations of a wide spectrum of testing mechanisms' properties. We show that the conventional power characterization of tests is a partial aspect of the presented EPV/ROC technique. We desire that this explanation of the EPV/ROC approach convinces researchers of the usefulness of the EPV/ROC approach for depicting different characteristics of decision-making procedures, in light of the growing interest regarding correct p-values-based applications.

From free energy to expected energy: Improving energy-based value function approximation in reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Elfwing, Stefan; Uchibe, Eiji; Doya, Kenji

2016-12-01

Free-energy based reinforcement learning (FERL) was proposed for learning in high-dimensional state and action spaces. However, the FERL method does only really work well with binary, or close to binary, state input, where the number of active states is fewer than the number of non-active states. In the FERL method, the value function is approximated by the negative free energy of a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). In our earlier study, we demonstrated that the performance and the robustness of the FERL method can be improved by scaling the free energy by a constant that is related to the size of network. In this study, we propose that RBM function approximation can be further improved by approximating the value function by the negative expected energy (EERL), instead of the negative free energy, as well as being able to handle continuous state input. We validate our proposed method by demonstrating that EERL: (1) outperforms FERL, as well as standard neural network and linear function approximation, for three versions of a gridworld task with high-dimensional image state input; (2) achieves new state-of-the-art results in stochastic SZ-Tetris in both model-free and model-based learning settings; and (3) significantly outperforms FERL and standard neural network function approximation for a robot navigation task with raw and noisy RGB images as state input and a large number of actions. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Better Informing Decision Making with Multiple Outcomes Cost-Effectiveness Analysis under Uncertainty in Cost-Disutility Space

PubMed Central

McCaffrey, Nikki; Agar, Meera; Harlum, Janeane; Karnon, Jonathon; Currow, David; Eckermann, Simon

2015-01-01

Introduction Comparing multiple, diverse outcomes with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is important, yet challenging in areas like palliative care where domains are unamenable to integration with survival. Generic multi-attribute utility values exclude important domains and non-health outcomes, while partial analyses—where outcomes are considered separately, with their joint relationship under uncertainty ignored—lead to incorrect inference regarding preferred strategies. Objective The objective of this paper is to consider whether such decision making can be better informed with alternative presentation and summary measures, extending methods previously shown to have advantages in multiple strategy comparison. Methods Multiple outcomes CEA of a home-based palliative care model (PEACH) relative to usual care is undertaken in cost disutility (CDU) space and compared with analysis on the cost-effectiveness plane. Summary measures developed for comparing strategies across potential threshold values for multiple outcomes include: expected net loss (ENL) planes quantifying differences in expected net benefit; the ENL contour identifying preferred strategies minimising ENL and their expected value of perfect information; and cost-effectiveness acceptability planes showing probability of strategies minimising ENL. Results Conventional analysis suggests PEACH is cost-effective when the threshold value per additional day at home ( 1) exceeds $1,068 or dominated by usual care when only the proportion of home deaths is considered. In contrast, neither alternative dominate in CDU space where cost and outcomes are jointly considered, with the optimal strategy depending on threshold values. For example, PEACH minimises ENL when 1=$2,000 and 2=$2,000 (threshold value for dying at home), with a 51.6% chance of PEACH being cost-effective. Conclusion Comparison in CDU space and associated summary measures have distinct advantages to multiple domain comparisons, aiding transparent and robust joint comparison of costs and multiple effects under uncertainty across potential threshold values for effect, better informing net benefit assessment and related reimbursement and research decisions. PMID:25751629

Evaluation of site effects on ground motions based on equivalent linear site response analysis and liquefaction potential in Chennai, south India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nampally, Subhadra; Padhy, Simanchal; Trupti, S.; Prabhakar Prasad, P.; Seshunarayana, T.

2018-05-01

We study local site effects with detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization to evaluate the site-specific seismic hazard for the seismic microzonation of the Chennai city in South India. A Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) of magnitude 6.0 is considered based on the available seismotectonic and geological information of the study area. We synthesized strong ground motion records for this target event using stochastic finite-fault technique, based on a dynamic corner frequency approach, at different sites in the city, with the model parameters for the source, site, and path (attenuation) most appropriately selected for this region. We tested the influence of several model parameters on the characteristics of ground motion through simulations and found that stress drop largely influences both the amplitude and frequency of ground motion. To minimize its influence, we estimated stress drop after finite bandwidth correction, as expected from an M6 earthquake in Indian peninsula shield for accurately predicting the level of ground motion. Estimates of shear wave velocity averaged over the top 30 m of soil (V S30) are obtained from multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) at 210 sites at depths of 30 to 60 m below the ground surface. Using these V S30 values, along with the available geotechnical information and synthetic ground motion database obtained, equivalent linear one-dimensional site response analysis that approximates the nonlinear soil behavior within the linear analysis framework was performed using the computer program SHAKE2000. Fundamental natural frequency, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at surface and rock levels, response spectrum at surface level for different damping coefficients, and amplification factors are presented at different sites of the city. Liquefaction study was done based on the V S30 and PGA values obtained. The major findings suggest show that the northeast part of the city is characterized by (i) low V S30 values (< 200 m/s) associated with alluvial deposits, (ii) relatively high PGA value, at the surface, of about 0.24 g, and (iii) factor of safety and liquefaction below unity at three sites (no. 12, no. 37, and no. 70). Thus, this part of the city is expected to experience damage for the expected M6 target event.

Estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information Using the Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample

PubMed Central

Oakley, Jeremy E.; Brennan, Alan; Breeze, Penny

2015-01-01

Health economic decision-analytic models are used to estimate the expected net benefits of competing decision options. The true values of the input parameters of such models are rarely known with certainty, and it is often useful to quantify the value to the decision maker of reducing uncertainty through collecting new data. In the context of a particular decision problem, the value of a proposed research design can be quantified by its expected value of sample information (EVSI). EVSI is commonly estimated via a 2-level Monte Carlo procedure in which plausible data sets are generated in an outer loop, and then, conditional on these, the parameters of the decision model are updated via Bayes rule and sampled in an inner loop. At each iteration of the inner loop, the decision model is evaluated. This is computationally demanding and may be difficult if the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditional on sampled data is hard to sample from. We describe a fast nonparametric regression-based method for estimating per-patient EVSI that requires only the probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample (i.e., the set of samples drawn from the joint distribution of the parameters and the corresponding net benefits). The method avoids the need to sample from the posterior distributions of the parameters and avoids the need to rerun the model. The only requirement is that sample data sets can be generated. The method is applicable with a model of any complexity and with any specification of model parameter distribution. We demonstrate in a case study the superior efficiency of the regression method over the 2-level Monte Carlo method. PMID:25810269

Variation in the days supply field for osteoporosis medications in Ontario.

PubMed

Burden, Andrea M; Huang, Anjie; Tadrous, Mina; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2013-01-01

We examined pharmacy claims for osteoporosis medications dispensed in the community (78 %) and long-term care (LTC) to determine if days supply values matched expected dosing intervals. Results identify potential reporting errors that can have implications for drug exposure misclassification, particularly in LTC where only 59 % of reported values matched expected values. The days supply field is commonly used to examine patterns of drug utilization and classify drug exposure, yet its accuracy has received little attention. We sought to describe the days supply reported for osteoporosis drugs and examine if values matched expected therapeutic dosing intervals. We examined days supply values for osteoporosis medications submitted to the Ontario Drug Benefits program for seniors, 1997-2011. Days supply values were evaluated by dosing regimen and setting (community or long-term care [LTC]) and compared to pre-defined expected values. We defined expected days supply by the therapeutic dosing interval: daily in 7- or 30-day intervals, or as 100 days; weekly in 7- or 30-day intervals; monthly and daily nasal spray in 28- or 30-day intervals; and cyclical etidronate as a 90-day supply. We identified 17,615,404 osteoporosis prescriptions, with 78 % dispensed in the community. Most daily oral prescriptions were dispensed by an expected therapeutic dosing interval (97 %). Annual IV zoledronic acid was most commonly dispensed as a 1-day supply (62 %). Distinct differences in agreement were observed for other regimens, with the expected days supply more commonly reported in community versus LTC: cyclical etidronate (86 % vs. 40 %), weekly (91 % vs. 60 %), monthly (94 % vs. 35 %), and nasal spray (84 % vs. 40 %). Results suggest that inaccuracies in the days supply field exist, particularly among prescriptions dispensed in LTC. Inaccurate reporting may have significant implications for osteoporosis drug exposure misclassification.

Nuclear power and the market value of the shares of electric utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, Joseph T.

The most basic principle of security valuation is that market prices are determined by investors' expectations of the firm's performance in the future. These expectations are generally understood to be related to the risk that investors will bear by holding the firm's equity. There is considerable evidence that financial statements prepared in accordance with accrual-based accounting standards consistent with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) have information content relevant to the establishment of market prices. In 2001, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 143, "Accounting for Asset Retirement Obligations," changing the accounting standards that must be used to prepare financial statements. This paper investigates the effect that investment in nuclear power has on the market value of electric utilities and the impact on the securities markets of the significant changes in financial statement presentation mandated by this new standard.

Neurons in the Primate Medial Basal Forebrain Signal Combined Information about Reward Uncertainty, Value, and Punishment Anticipation

PubMed Central

Leopold, David A.; Hikosaka, Okihide

2015-01-01

It has been suggested that the basal forebrain (BF) exerts strong influences on the formation of memory and behavior. However, what information is used for the memory-behavior formation is unclear. We found that a population of neurons in the medial BF (medial septum and diagonal band of Broca) of macaque monkeys encodes a unique combination of information: reward uncertainty, expected reward value, anticipation of punishment, and unexpected reward and punishment. The results were obtained while the monkeys were expecting (often with uncertainty) a rewarding or punishing outcome during a Pavlovian procedure, or unexpectedly received an outcome outside the procedure. In vivo anterograde tracing using manganese-enhanced MRI suggested that the major recipient of these signals is the intermediate hippocampal formation. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that the medial BF identifies various contexts and outcomes that are critical for memory processing in the hippocampal formation. PMID:25972172

A radiographic method to estimate lung volume and its use in small mammals.

PubMed

Canals, Mauricio; Olivares, Ricardo; Rosenmann, Mario

2005-01-01

In this paper we develop a method to estimate lung volume using chest x-rays of small mammals. We applied this method to assess the lung volume of several rodents. We showed that a good estimator of the lung volume is: V*L = 0.496 x VRX approximately equal to 1/2 x VRX, where VRX is a measurement obtained from the x-ray that represents the volume of a rectangular box containing the lungs and mediastinum organs. The proposed formula may be interpreted as the volume of an ellipsoid formed by both lungs joined at their bases. When that relationship was used to estimate lung volume, values similar to those expected from allometric relationship were found in four rodents. In two others, M. musculus and R. norvegicus, lung volume was similar to reported data, although values were lower than expected.

Voltage equalization of an ultracapacitor module by cell grouping using number partitioning algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyarbide, E.; Bernal, C.; Molina, P.; Jiménez, L. A.; Gálvez, R.; Martínez, A.

2016-01-01

Ultracapacitors are low voltage devices and therefore, for practical applications, they need to be used in modules of series-connected cells. Because of the inherent manufacturing tolerance of the capacitance parameter of each cell, and as the maximum voltage value cannot be exceeded, the module requires inter-cell voltage equalization. If the intended application suffers repeated fast charging/discharging cycles, active equalization circuits must be rated to full power, and thus the module becomes expensive. Previous work shows that a series connection of several sets of paralleled ultracapacitors minimizes the dispersion of equivalent capacitance values, and also the voltage differences between capacitors. Thus the overall life expectancy is improved. This paper proposes a method to distribute ultracapacitors with a number partitioning-based strategy to reduce the dispersion between equivalent submodule capacitances. Thereafter, the total amount of stored energy and/or the life expectancy of the device can be considerably improved.

A MATLAB implementation of the minimum relative entropy method for linear inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupauer, Roseanna M.; Borchers, Brian

2001-08-01

The minimum relative entropy (MRE) method can be used to solve linear inverse problems of the form Gm= d, where m is a vector of unknown model parameters and d is a vector of measured data. The MRE method treats the elements of m as random variables, and obtains a multivariate probability density function for m. The probability density function is constrained by prior information about the upper and lower bounds of m, a prior expected value of m, and the measured data. The solution of the inverse problem is the expected value of m, based on the derived probability density function. We present a MATLAB implementation of the MRE method. Several numerical issues arise in the implementation of the MRE method and are discussed here. We present the source history reconstruction problem from groundwater hydrology as an example of the MRE implementation.

WFIRST: Exoplanet Target Selection and Scheduling with Greedy Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keithly, Dean; Garrett, Daniel; Delacroix, Christian; Savransky, Dmitry

2018-01-01

We present target selection and scheduling algorithms for missions with direct imaging of exoplanets, and the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) in particular, which will be equipped with a coronagraphic instrument (CGI). Optimal scheduling of CGI targets can maximize the expected value of directly imaged exoplanets (completeness). Using target completeness as a reward metric and integration time plus overhead time as a cost metric, we can maximize the sum completeness for a mission with a fixed duration. We optimize over these metrics to create a list of target stars using a greedy optimization algorithm based off altruistic yield optimization (AYO) under ideal conditions. We simulate full missions using EXOSIMS by observing targets in this list for their predetermined integration times. In this poster, we report the theoretical maximum sum completeness, mean number of detected exoplanets from Monte Carlo simulations, and the ideal expected value of the simulated missions.

Calculation of Expectation Values of Operators in the Complex Scaling Method

DOE PAGES

Papadimitriou, G.

2016-06-14

In the complex scaling method (CSM) provides with a way to obtain resonance parameters of particle unstable states by rotating the coordinates and momenta of the original Hamiltonian. It is convenient to use an L 2 integrable basis to resolve the complex rotated or complex scaled Hamiltonian H θ , with θ being the angle of rotation in the complex energy plane. Within the CSM, resonance and scattering solutions have fall-off asymptotics. Furthermore, one of the consequences is that, expectation values of operators in a resonance or scattering complex scaled solution are calculated by complex rotating the operators. In thismore » work we are exploring applications of the CSM on calculations of expectation values of quantum mechanical operators by using the regularized backrotation technique and calculating hence the expectation value using the unrotated operator. Moreover, the test cases involve a schematic two-body Gaussian model and also applications using realistic interactions.« less

Toward {U}(N|M) knot invariant from ABJM theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eynard, Bertrand; Kimura, Taro

2017-06-01

We study {U}(N|M) character expectation value with the supermatrix Chern-Simons theory, known as the ABJM matrix model, with emphasis on its connection to the knot invariant. This average just gives the half-BPS circular Wilson loop expectation value in ABJM theory, which shall correspond to the unknot invariant. We derive the determinantal formula, which gives {U}(N|M) character expectation values in terms of {U}(1|1) averages for a particular type of character representations. This means that the {U}(1|1) character expectation value is a building block for the {U}(N|M) averages and also, by an appropriate limit, for the {U}(N) invariants. In addition to the original model, we introduce another supermatrix model obtained through the symplectic transform, which is motivated by the torus knot Chern-Simons matrix model. We obtain the Rosso-Jones-type formula and the spectral curve for this case.

Cosmological perturbations in inflation and in de Sitter space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimentel, Guilherme Leite

This thesis focuses on various aspects of inflationary fluctuations. First, we study gravitational wave fluctuations in de Sitter space. The isometries of the spacetime constrain to a few parameters the Wheeler-DeWitt wavefunctional of the universe, to cubic order in fluctuations. At cubic order, there are three independent terms in the wavefunctional. From the point of view of the bulk action, one term corresponds to Einstein gravity, and a new term comes from a cubic term in the curvature tensor. The third term is a pure phase and does not give rise to a new shape for expectation values of graviton fluctuations. These results can be seen as the leading order non-gaussian contributions in a slow-roll expansion for inflationary observables. We also use the wavefunctional approach to explain a universal consistency condition of n-point expectation values in single field inflation. This consistency condition relates a soft limit of an n-point expectation value to ( n-1)-point expectation values. We show how these conditions can be easily derived from the wavefunctional point of view. Namely, they follow from the momentum constraint of general relativity, which is equivalent to the constraint of spatial diffeomorphism invariance. We also study expectation values beyond tree level. We show that subhorizon fluctuations in loop diagrams do not generate a mass term for superhorizon fluctuations. Such a mass term could spoil the predictivity of inflation, which is based on the existence of properly defined field variables that become constant once their wavelength is bigger than the size of the horizon. Such a mass term would be seen in the two point expectation value as a contribution that grows linearly with time at late times. The absence of this mass term is closely related to the soft limits studied in previous chapters. It is analogous to the absence of a mass term for the photon in quantum electrodynamics, due to gauge symmetry. Finally, we use the tools of holography and entanglement entropy to study superhorizon correlations in quantum field theories in de Sitter space. The entropy has interesting terms that have no equivalent in flat space field theories. These new terms are due to particle creation in an expanding universe. The entropy is calculated directly for free massive scalar theories. For theories with holographic duals, it is determined by the area of some extremal surface in the bulk geometry. We calculate the entropy for different classes of holographic duals. For one of these classes, the holographic dual geometry is an asymptotically Anti-de Sitter space that decays into a crunching cosmology, an open Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe. The extremal surface used in the calculation of the entropy lies almost entirely on the slice of maximal scale factor of the crunching cosmology.

Use of tolerance values to diagnose water-quality stressors to aquatic biota in New England streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meador, M.R.; Carlisle, D.M.; Coles, J.F.

2008-01-01

Identification of stressors related to biological impairment is critical to biological assessments. We applied nationally derived tolerance indicator values for four water-quality variables to fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 29 sites along an urban gradient in New England. Tolerance indicator values (TIVs), as biologically based predictors of water-quality variables, were determined for dissolved oxygen, nitrite plus nitrate (nitrate), total phosphorus, and water temperature for each site based on observed biological assemblages (TIVO), and for expected assemblages (TIVE). The quotient method, based on a ratio of the TIVs for observed and expected assemblages (tolerance units), was used to diagnose potential water-quality stressors. In addition, the ratio of measured water-quality values to water-quality criteria (water-quality units) was calculated for each water-quality variable to assess measured water-quality stressors. Results from a RIVPACS predictive model for benthic macroinvertebrates and Bray-Curtis dissimilarity for fish were used to classify sites into categories of good or impaired ecological condition. Significant differences were detected between good and impaired sites for all biological tolerance units (fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages averaged) except for nitrate (P = 0.480), and for all water-quality units except for nitrate (P = 0.183). Diagnosis of water-quality stressors at selected sites was, in general, consistent with State-reported causes of impairment. Tolerance units for benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages were significantly correlated for water temperature (P = 0.001, r = 0.63), dissolved oxygen (P = 0.001, r = 0.61), and total phosphorus (P = 0.001, r = 0.61), but not for nitrate (P = 0.059, r = -0.35). Differences between the two assemblages in site-specific diagnosis of water-quality stressors may be the result of differences in nitrate tolerance.

Estimating investment returns from growing red pine.

Treesearch

Allen L. Lundgren

1966-01-01

This paper describes how to estimate present values of incomes and costs in growing red pine trees for sale as cordwood or sawtimber, and how to calculate expectation values and rates of return for a wide range of timber-growing conditions, using the tables of expectation value indexes and interest rate multipliers provided. It illustrates how to compare investment...

Connecting Inquiry and Values in Science Education. An Approach Based on John Dewey's Philosophy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eun Ah; Brown, Matthew J.

2018-03-01

Conducting scientific inquiry is expected to help students make informed decisions; however, how exactly it can help is rarely explained in science education standards. According to classroom studies, inquiry that students conduct in science classes seems to have little effect on their decision-making. Predetermined values play a large role in students' decision-making, but students do not explore these values or evaluate whether they are appropriate to the particular issue they are deciding, and they often ignore relevant scientific information. We explore how to connect inquiry and values, and how this connection can contribute to informed decision-making based on John Dewey's philosophy. Dewey argues that scientific inquiry should include value judgments and that conducting inquiry can improve the ability to make good value judgments. Value judgment is essential to informed, rational decision-making, and Dewey's ideas can explain how conducting inquiry can contribute to make an informed decision through value judgment. According to Dewey, each value judgment during inquiry is a practical judgment guiding action, and students can improve their value judgments by evaluating their actions during scientific inquiry. Thus, we suggest that students need an opportunity to explore values through scientific inquiry and that practicing value judgment will help informed decision-makings.

Theoretical analysis of microring resonator-based biosensor with high resolution and free of temperature influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Aoqun; Zou, Lu; Tang, Haiquan; Duan, Qianqian; Ji, Jianlong; Zhang, Qianwu; Zhang, Xuming; Sang, Shengbo

2017-06-01

The issue of thermal effects is inevitable for the ultrahigh refractive index (RI) measurement. A biosensor with parallel-coupled dual-microring resonator configuration is proposed to achieve high resolution and free thermal effects measurement. Based on the coupled-resonator-induced transparency effect, the design and principle of the biosensor are introduced in detail, and the performance of the sensor is deduced by simulations. Compared to the biosensor based on a single-ring configuration, the designed biosensor has a 10-fold increased Q value according to the simulation results, thus the sensor is expected to achieve a particularly high resolution. In addition, the output signal of the mathematical model of the proposed sensor can eliminate the thermal influence by adopting an algorithm. This work is expected to have great application potentials in the areas of high-resolution RI measurement, such as biomedical discoveries, virus screening, and drinking water safety.

Wind direction change criteria for wind turbine design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cliff, W.C.

1979-01-01

A method is presented for estimating the root mean square (rms) value of the wind direction change, ..delta..theta(tau) = theta(tau + tau) - theta(tau), that occurs over the swept area of wind turbine rotor systems. An equation is also given for the rms value of the wind direction change that occurs at a single point in space, i.e., a direcion change that a wind vane would measure. Assuming a normal probability density function for the lateral wind velocity change and relating this to angular changes, equations are given for calculating the expected number of wind direction changes, larger than anmore » arbitrary value, that will occur in 1 hr as well as the expected number that will occur during the design life of a wind turbine. The equations presented are developed using a small angle approximation and are, therefore, considered appropriate for wind direction changes of less than 30/sup 0/. The equations presented are based upon neutral atmospheric boundary-layer conditions and do not include information regarding events such as tornados, hurricanes, etc.« less

A Review of Methods for Analysis of the Expected Value of Information.

PubMed

Heath, Anna; Manolopoulou, Ioanna; Baio, Gianluca

2017-10-01

In recent years, value-of-information analysis has become more widespread in health economic evaluations, specifically as a tool to guide further research and perform probabilistic sensitivity analysis. This is partly due to methodological advancements allowing for the fast computation of a typical summary known as the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI). A recent review discussed some approximation methods for calculating the EVPPI, but as the research has been active over the intervening years, that review does not discuss some key estimation methods. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive review of these new methods. We begin by providing the technical details of these computation methods. We then present two case studies in order to compare the estimation performance of these new methods. We conclude that a method based on nonparametric regression offers the best method for calculating the EVPPI in terms of accuracy, computational time, and ease of implementation. This means that the EVPPI can now be used practically in health economic evaluations, especially as all the methods are developed in parallel with R functions and a web app to aid practitioners.

A multistage stochastic programming model for a multi-period strategic expansion of biofuel supply chain under evolving uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Fei; Huang, Yongxi

Here, we develop a multistage, stochastic mixed-integer model to support biofuel supply chain expansion under evolving uncertainties. By utilizing the block-separable recourse property, we reformulate the multistage program in an equivalent two-stage program and solve it using an enhanced nested decomposition method with maximal non-dominated cuts. We conduct extensive numerical experiments and demonstrate the application of the model and algorithm in a case study based on the South Carolina settings. The value of multistage stochastic programming method is also explored by comparing the model solution with the counterparts of an expected value based deterministic model and a two-stage stochastic model.

A multistage stochastic programming model for a multi-period strategic expansion of biofuel supply chain under evolving uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Xie, Fei; Huang, Yongxi

2018-02-04

Here, we develop a multistage, stochastic mixed-integer model to support biofuel supply chain expansion under evolving uncertainties. By utilizing the block-separable recourse property, we reformulate the multistage program in an equivalent two-stage program and solve it using an enhanced nested decomposition method with maximal non-dominated cuts. We conduct extensive numerical experiments and demonstrate the application of the model and algorithm in a case study based on the South Carolina settings. The value of multistage stochastic programming method is also explored by comparing the model solution with the counterparts of an expected value based deterministic model and a two-stage stochastic model.

The Tie that Binds: Building Discourse Communities and Group Cohesion through Computer-Based Conferences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selfe, Cynthia L.; Eilola, J. Daniel

1988-01-01

Discussion of the use of electronic conferencing to form a discourse community focuses on a case study of student consultants working in a microcomputer lab supporting writing courses at Michigan Technological University. The formulation of a group identity, as well as group values, goals, and expectations are discussed. (16 references) (LRW)

Thinning Guidelines For Loblolly Pine Plantations in Eastern Texas Based on Alternative Management Criteria

Treesearch

Charles T. Stiff; William F. Stansfield

2004-01-01

Separate thinning guidelines were developed for maximizing land expectation value (LEV), present net worth (PNW), and total sawlog yield (TSY) of existing and future loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantations in eastern Texas. The guidelines were created using data from simulated stands which were thinned one time during their rotation using a...

Communication of Expectations between Principals and Entry-Year Instrumental Music Teachers: Implications for Music Teacher Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edgar, Scott

2012-01-01

Assessment of arts educators, including music educators, has evolved into a high-stakes situation that drives teacher pay, promotion, and retention. This assessment process is driven by federal policy advocating for a value-added model based on student performance. Principals, who are often charged with assessing artistic musical performance,…

Could ecological thresholds of toxicological concern (eco-TTCs) be used to support development of ambient water quality criteria?

EPA Science Inventory

The Threshold of Toxicologic Concern (TTC) is an approach used for a decades in human hazard assessment. A TTC establishes an exposure level for a chemical below which no appreciable risk to human health is expected based upon a de minimis value for toxicity identified for many ...

International Students' Motivation to Pursue and Complete a Ph.D. in the U.S.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Ji

2015-01-01

This study explores what motivates 19 international students to pursue a Ph.D. at a public research university in the U.S. and, more importantly, what motivates them to persist despite unsatisfying socialization. Based on value-expectancy achievement motivation theory, four motivations emerged: intrinsic interest in research, intrinsic interest in…

Exploring K-3 Teachers' Implementation of Comprehension Strategy Instruction (CSI) Using Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foley, Laura S.

2011-01-01

This research investigated factors that influence the implementation levels of evidence-based comprehension strategy instruction (CSI) among K-3 teachers. An explanatory design was chosen to gather and probe the data. Quantitative data were gathered via a mailed survey distributed through a representative sample of the 40 school districts (through…

What Influences Young Canadians to Pursue Post-Secondary Studies? Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubois, Julie

2002-01-01

This paper uses the theory of human capital to model post-secondary education enrolment decisions. The model is based on the assumption that high school graduates assess the costs and benefits associated with various levels of post-secondary education (college or university) and select the option that maximizes the expected net present value.…

The Role of Family Involvement in Predicting Student-Teacher Relationships and Academic and Behavioral Outcomes for Children of Immigrants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryce, Patrice

2012-01-01

Using a multi-ethnic, socioeconomically varied sample of children of immigrants attending Islamic and public schools from first through third grade, this dissertation examined the degree to which school-based family involvement predicted teacher perceptions of value differences with parents, teacher expectations, child externalizing behavioral…

A systems theory approach to career development: Exploring factors that affect science as a career choice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liskey, Brian K.

This research project was designed to examine the factors that affect students' choice in a career. Specifically, the factors of (a) achievement, (b) interest, (c) self-efficacy, (d) perceived preparation for a career, and (e) being informed about a career will be under investigation. Of key importance to the study is how these factors can affect a student's perception about choosing a science career. A quantitative analysis of secondary data from the 2006 and 2009 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) international assessment and attitudinal questionnaire provided data on student perceptions and aptitude in science. The sample from PISA included over 400,000 15 year-old students from 57 countries. From the 57 countries, 30 countries, comprised by Organization for Economic and Cooperative Development (OECD), were isolated for analysis. Within this group of 30, 11 were selected for comparison based on their questionnaire response to expectations for a career in science at age 30. The Institute for Educational Science's, International Data Explorer was utilized to acquire and analyze data from the 2006 and 2009 PISA international tests and questionnaires to determine significance between scaled scores and PISA indices. Variables were chosen as factors affecting student's perception on various systems outlined by the Systems Theory of Career Development (Patton & McMahon, 1997) and the Systems Theory of Career Development Framework (Patton & McMahon, 1999). Four country groups were established based on student responses to question 30a from the 2006 PISA attitudinal questionnaire, which asks what career students expected to have at age 30. The results from comparing country groups showed that countries in Group A, which showed the highest values for students expecting a career in science, also had the highest average values for achievement on the PISA science literacy assessment. Likewise, countries that had the lowest values for expecting a career in science (Group B) also had the lowest average values for achievement in science as assessed by science literacy score according to PISA. The United States (Group C) and the International Average (Group D) were both intermediate in each of the two categories. The analysis also showed an identical country group sequence from highest responses to lowest responses for the "systems" or variables of a) self-efficacy, b) preparation for a science career, and c) information about a career in science. The group sequence from high to low values was Group C, Group B, Group D, Group A. When comparing this country group sequence there appears to be a weak negative association between students in countries that expect a career in science and the values for self-efficacy, being prepared for, and informed about a career in science. The findings from this study indicate that the greatest factor affecting students' perception for expecting a career in science is high achievement in science. These results provide key insight on the Systems Theory of Career Development missing from the existing body of literature. Leaders in the fields of education and educational policy can use this information to guide practices and promote programs that will aid in higher achievement in science and engineering. This research can also be used by leaders in career counseling to advise students on appropriate career paths and prepare students for future careers in science and technology. Finally, leadership within state and federal institutions can utilize results from this study to guide future research and funding that encourages students on career pathways in the fields of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM).

Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segoni, Samuele; Rosi, Ascanio; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Fanti, Riccardo; Casagli, Nicola

2018-03-01

We communicate the results of a preliminary investigation aimed at improving a state-of-the-art RSLEWS (regional-scale landslide early warning system) based on rainfall thresholds by integrating mean soil moisture values averaged over the territorial units of the system. We tested two approaches. The simplest can be easily applied to improve other RSLEWS: it is based on a soil moisture threshold value under which rainfall thresholds are not used because landslides are not expected to occur. Another approach deeply modifies the original RSLEWS: thresholds based on antecedent rainfall accumulated over long periods are substituted with soil moisture thresholds. A back analysis demonstrated that both approaches consistently reduced false alarms, while the second approach reduced missed alarms as well.

Automatic low-order aberration correction based on geometrical optics for slab lasers.

PubMed

Yu, Xin; Dong, Lizhi; Lai, Boheng; Yang, Ping; Liu, Yong; Kong, Qingfeng; Yang, Kangjian; Tang, Guomao; Xu, Bing

2017-02-20

In this paper, we present a method based on geometry optics to simultaneously correct low-order aberrations and reshape the beams of slab lasers. A coaxial optical system with three lenses is adapted. The positions of the three lenses are directly calculated based on the beam parameters detected by wavefront sensors. The initial sizes of the input beams are 1.8  mm×11  mm, and peak-to-valley (PV) values of the wavefront range up to several tens of microns. After automatic correction, the dimensions may reach nearly 22  mm×22  mm as expected, and PV values of the wavefront are less than 2 μm. The effectiveness and precision of this method are verified with experiments.

Carbon-Carbon Recuperators in Closed-Brayton-Cycle Nuclear Space Power Systems: A Feasibility Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Michael J.; Johnson, Paul K.

2004-01-01

The feasibility of using carbon-carbon recuperators in closed-Brayton-cycle (CBC) nuclear space power conversion systems (PCS) was assessed. Recuperator performance expectations were forecast based on projected thermodynamic cycle state values for a planetary mission. Resulting thermal performance, mass and volume for a plate-fin carbon-carbon recuperator were estimated and quantitatively compared with values for a conventional offset-strip-fin metallic design. Material compatibility issues regarding carbon-carbon surfaces exposed to the working fluid in the CBC PCS were also discussed.

Mass Uncertainty and Application For Space Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beech, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

Expected development maturity under contract (spec) should correlate with Project/Program Approved MGA Depletion Schedule in Mass Properties Control Plan. If specification NTE, MGA is inclusive of Actual MGA (A5 & A6). If specification is not an NTE Actual MGA (e.g. nominal), then MGA values are reduced by A5 values and A5 is representative of remaining uncertainty. Basic Mass = Engineering Estimate based on design and construction principles with NO embedded margin MGA Mass = Basic Mass * assessed % from approved MGA schedule. Predicted Mass = Basic + MGA. Aggregate MGA % = (Aggregate Predicted - Aggregate Basic) /Aggregate Basic.

Extended space expectation values of position related operators for hydrogen-like quantum system evolutions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalay, Berfin; Demiralp, Metin

2014-10-06

The expectation value definitions over an extended space from the considered Hilbert space of the system under consideration is given in another paper of the second author in this symposium. There, in that paper, the conceptuality rather than specification is emphasized on. This work uses that conceptuality to investigate the time evolutions of the position related operators' expectation values not in its standard meaning but rather in a new version of the definition over not the original Hilbert space but in the space obtained by extensions via introducing the images of the given initial wave packet under the positive integermore » powers of the system Hamiltonian. These images may not be residing in the same space of the initial wave packet when certain singularities appear in the structure of the system Hamiltonian. This may break down the existence of the integrals in the definitions of the expectation values. The cure is the use of basis functions in the abovementioned extended space and the sandwiching of the target operator whose expectation value is under questioning by an appropriately chosen operator guaranteeing the existence of the relevant integrals. Work specifically focuses on the hydrogen-like quantum systems whose Hamiltonians contain a polar singularity at the origin.« less

Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

PubMed

D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

2008-12-01

When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

Ability Beliefs, Task Value, and Performance as a Function of Race in a Dart-Throwing Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Kosma, Maria; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

2009-01-01

This study examines differences in self-efficacy, expectancy-related beliefs, task value, and performance in a dart-throwing task as a function of race among diverse college students using the expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory. It also examines the predictive contributions of these beliefs on task performance within each racial…

Why Do Children Worry about Their Academic Achievement? An Expectancy-Value Perspective on Elementary Students' Worries about Their Mathematics and Reading Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauermann, Fani; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.; Pekrun, Reinhard

2017-01-01

Children's worrying about their academic performance has profound implications for their learning and wellbeing in school. Understanding the contextual and psychological antecedents of students' worry thus represents an important area of research. Drawing on Eccles and colleagues' expectancy-value theory and Pekrun's control-value theory and using…

Attentional Selection Can Be Predicted by Reinforcement Learning of Task-relevant Stimulus Features Weighted by Value-independent Stickiness.

PubMed

Balcarras, Matthew; Ardid, Salva; Kaping, Daniel; Everling, Stefan; Womelsdorf, Thilo

2016-02-01

Attention includes processes that evaluate stimuli relevance, select the most relevant stimulus against less relevant stimuli, and bias choice behavior toward the selected information. It is not clear how these processes interact. Here, we captured these processes in a reinforcement learning framework applied to a feature-based attention task that required macaques to learn and update the value of stimulus features while ignoring nonrelevant sensory features, locations, and action plans. We found that value-based reinforcement learning mechanisms could account for feature-based attentional selection and choice behavior but required a value-independent stickiness selection process to explain selection errors while at asymptotic behavior. By comparing different reinforcement learning schemes, we found that trial-by-trial selections were best predicted by a model that only represents expected values for the task-relevant feature dimension, with nonrelevant stimulus features and action plans having only a marginal influence on covert selections. These findings show that attentional control subprocesses can be described by (1) the reinforcement learning of feature values within a restricted feature space that excludes irrelevant feature dimensions, (2) a stochastic selection process on feature-specific value representations, and (3) value-independent stickiness toward previous feature selections akin to perseveration in the motor domain. We speculate that these three mechanisms are implemented by distinct but interacting brain circuits and that the proposed formal account of feature-based stimulus selection will be important to understand how attentional subprocesses are implemented in primate brain networks.

Semantic text relatedness on Al-Qur’an translation using modified path based method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwanto, Yudi; Arif Bijaksana, Moch; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Abdul Baquee Muhammad [1] have built Corpus that contained AlQur’an domain, WordNet and dictionary. He has did initialisation in the development of knowledges about AlQur’an and the knowledges about relatedness between texts in AlQur’an. The Path based measurement method that proposed by Liu, Zhou and Zheng [3] has never been used in the AlQur’an domain. By using AlQur’an translation dataset in this research, the path based measurement method proposed by Liu, Zhou and Zheng [3] will be used to test this method in AlQur’an domain to obtain similarity values and to measure its correlation value. In this study the degree value is proposed to be used in modifying the path based method that proposed in previous research. Degree Value is the number of links that owned by a lcs (lowest common subsumer) node on a taxonomy. The links owned by a node on the taxonomy represent the semantic relationship that a node has in the taxonomy. By using degree value to modify the path-based method that proposed in previous research is expected that the correlation value obtained will increase. After running some experiment by using proposed method, the correlation measurement value can obtain fairly good correlation ties with 200 Word Pairs derive from Noun POS SimLex-999. The correlation value that be obtained is 93.3% which means their bonds are strong and they have very strong correlation. Whereas for the POS other than Noun POS vocabulary that owned by WordNet is incomplete therefore many pairs of words that the value of its similarity is zero so the correlation value is low.

Using a survey to estimate health expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy to assess inequalities in health and quality of life.

PubMed

Collins, Brendan

2013-06-01

There has been a policy debate in the United Kingdom about moving beyond traditional measures of life expectancy and economic output to developing more meaningful ways of measuring national well-being. To test whether quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE) was a useful indicator of health inequalities. EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire data from a well-being survey was combined with actuarial life expectancy (LE) data to estimate healthy LE (HLE), that is, years of life lived in good health, and QALE, that is, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lived for Wirral, a borough in the north west of England. The gap between Wirral and the most deprived areas was 4.45 years for LE, 5.34 for QALE, and 7.55 for HLE. The gap in QALE was 20% greater than the gap in LE, while the gap in HLE was 70% greater. The fact that the QALE gap value lies between the HLE value and the LE value suggests that QALE is a more sensitive indicator than HLE, as in this study QALE is derived from 243 possible EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire profiles whereas HLE is based only on whether or not an individual rates his or her health as good, a binary variable. This study discusses how QALE could be a useful indicator for measuring health inequalities in future, especially as cost utility and QALYs are seen as the gold standard used by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence in the United Kingdom to measure outcomes for health interventions in England, and discusses how a monetary valuation of QALYs could be used to put a societal cost on health inequalities. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bone Density Following Three Years of Recovery from Long-Duration Space-Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amin, S.; Achenbach, S. J.; Atkinson, E. J.; Sibonga, J.

2010-01-01

Bone loss during long-duration space flight is well recognized, but the long-term implications on bone health following return from flight remain unclear. Among US crew who were involved in long-duration missions in space (Mir and ISS), we have previously shown that at approximately 12 months following return, men, but not women, had BMD values at most sites that were still lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to a prolonged period of microgravity. We now extend our observations to 3 years of follow-up post-flight. Using their age, pre-flight BMD and follow-up time, post-flight BMD values for each US crew were predicted based on the model developed from the community sample. We found BMD measures to be either stable or improve by 3 years relative to their immediate post-flight BMD, however only total hip BMD still remains significantly lower than would be expected had they not been exposed to microgravity. Among male US crew, who have had their BMD measured following at least 3 years of recovery post long-duration flight, they continue to have lower BMD at the hip than would be expected, raising potential concerns regarding future hip fracture risk.

Where and when should sensors move? Sampling using the expected value of information.

PubMed

de Bruin, Sytze; Ballari, Daniela; Bregt, Arnold K

2012-11-26

In case of an environmental accident, initially available data are often insufficient for properly managing the situation. In this paper, new sensor observations are iteratively added to an initial sample by maximising the global expected value of information of the points for decision making. This is equivalent to minimizing the aggregated expected misclassification costs over the study area. The method considers measurement error and different costs for class omissions and false class commissions. Constraints imposed by a mobile sensor web are accounted for using cost distances to decide which sensor should move to the next sample location. The method is demonstrated using synthetic examples of static and dynamic phenomena. This allowed computation of the true misclassification costs and comparison with other sampling approaches. The probability of local contamination levels being above a given critical threshold were computed by indicator kriging. In the case of multiple sensors being relocated simultaneously, a genetic algorithm was used to find sets of suitable new measurement locations. Otherwise, all grid nodes were searched exhaustively, which is computationally demanding. In terms of true misclassification costs, the method outperformed random sampling and sampling based on minimisation of the kriging variance.

Where and When Should Sensors Move? Sampling Using the Expected Value of Information

PubMed Central

de Bruin, Sytze; Ballari, Daniela; Bregt, Arnold K.

2012-01-01

In case of an environmental accident, initially available data are often insufficient for properly managing the situation. In this paper, new sensor observations are iteratively added to an initial sample by maximising the global expected value of information of the points for decision making. This is equivalent to minimizing the aggregated expected misclassification costs over the study area. The method considers measurement error and different costs for class omissions and false class commissions. Constraints imposed by a mobile sensor web are accounted for using cost distances to decide which sensor should move to the next sample location. The method is demonstrated using synthetic examples of static and dynamic phenomena. This allowed computation of the true misclassification costs and comparison with other sampling approaches. The probability of local contamination levels being above a given critical threshold were computed by indicator kriging. In the case of multiple sensors being relocated simultaneously, a genetic algorithm was used to find sets of suitable new measurement locations. Otherwise, all grid nodes were searched exhaustively, which is computationally demanding. In terms of true misclassification costs, the method outperformed random sampling and sampling based on minimisation of the kriging variance. PMID:23443379

Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain.

PubMed

Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

2014-01-28

Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain.

Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain

PubMed Central

Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

2014-01-01

Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain. PMID:24474790

Factors affecting patient valuations of caries prevention: Using and validating the willingness to pay method.

PubMed

Vernazza, Christopher R; Wildman, John R; Steele, Jimmy G; Whitworth, John M; Walls, Angus W G; Perry, Ross; Matthews, Roger; Hahn, Petra; Donaldson, Cam

2015-08-01

Determining the value of, or strength of preference for health care interventions is useful for policy makers in planning health care services. Willingness to pay (WTP) is an established economic technique to determine the strength of preferences for interventions by eliciting monetary valuations from individuals in hypothetical situations. The objective of this study was to elicit WTP values for a dental preventive intervention and to analyze the factors affecting these as well as investigating the validity of the WTP method. Patients aged 40 years plus attending dental practices in the UK and Germany were recruited on a consecutive basis over one month. Participants received information about a novel root caries prevention intervention. They then completed a questionnaire including a WTP task. Where the coating was indicated, patients were offered this for a payment and acceptance was recorded. Analysis included econometric modelling and comparison of expected (based on stated WTP) versus actual behaviour. The mean WTP for the coating was £96.41 (standard deviation 60.61). Econometric models showed that no demographic or dental history factors were significant predictors of WTP. 63% of the sample behaved as expected when using stated WTP to predict whether they would buy the coating. The remainder were split almost equally between those expected to pay but who did not and those who were expected to refuse but paid. Values for a caries preventive intervention had a large and unpredictable variance. In comparing hypothetical versus real preferences both under- and over-valuation occurs. Wide and unpredictable variation in valuations for prevention may mean that there are difficult policy questions around what resource should be allocated to dental prevention and how to target this resource. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stable Isotope Analysis Reveals Detrital Resource Base Sources of the Tree Hole Mosquito, Aedes triseriatus

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Michael G.; Pelz-Stelinski, Kirsten S.; Yee, Donald A.; Juliano, Steven A.; Ostrom, Peggy H.; Walker, Edward D.

2010-01-01

1. Detritus that forms the basis for mosquito production in tree hole ecosystems can vary in type and timing of input. We investigated the contributions of plant- and animal-derived detritus to the biomass of Aedes triseriatus (Say) pupae and adults by using stable isotope (15N and 13C) techniques in lab experiments and field collections. 2. Lab-reared mosquito isotope values reflected their detrital resource base, providing a clear distinction between mosquitoes reared on plant or animal detritus. 3. Isotope values from field-collected pupae were intermediate between what would be expected if a single (either plant or animal) detrital source dominated the resource base. However, mosquito isotope values clustered most closely with plant-derived values, and a mixed feeding model analysis indicated tree floral parts contributed approximately 80% of mosquito biomass. The mixed model also indicated that animal detritus contributed approximately 30% of mosquito tissue nitrogen. 4. Pupae collected later in the season generally had isotope values that were consistent with an increased contribution from animal detritus, suggesting this resource became more nutritionally important for mosquitoes as plant inputs declined over the summer. PMID:21132121

Dynamical Typicality Approach to Eigenstate Thermalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimann, Peter

2018-06-01

We consider the set of all initial states within a microcanonical energy shell of an isolated many-body quantum system, which exhibit an arbitrary but fixed nonequilibrium expectation value for some given observable A . On the condition that this set is not too small, it is shown by means of a dynamical typicality approach that most such initial states exhibit thermalization if and only if A satisfies the so-called weak eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (wETH). Here, thermalization means that the expectation value of A spends most of its time close to the microcanonical value after initial transients have died out. The wETH means that, within the energy shell, most eigenstates of the pertinent system Hamiltonian exhibit very similar expectation values of A .

Solvency II solvency capital requirement for life insurance companies based on expected shortfall.

PubMed

Boonen, Tim J

2017-01-01

This paper examines the consequences for a life annuity insurance company if the solvency II solvency capital requirements (SCR) are calibrated based on expected shortfall (ES) instead of value-at-risk (VaR). We focus on the risk modules of the SCRs for the three risk classes equity risk, interest rate risk and longevity risk. The stress scenarios are determined using the calibration method proposed by EIOPA in 2014. We apply the stress-scenarios for these three risk classes to a fictitious life annuity insurance company. We find that for EIOPA's current quantile 99.5% of the VaR, the stress scenarios of the various risk classes based on ES are close to the stress scenarios based on VaR. Might EIOPA choose to calibrate the stress scenarios on a smaller quantile, the longevity SCR is relatively larger and the equity SCR is relatively smaller if ES is used instead of VaR. We derive the same conclusion if stress scenarios are determined with empirical stress scenarios.

Values-based practice in mental health and psychiatry.

PubMed

Woodbridge-Dodd, Kim

2012-11-01

Values-based practice (VBP) challenges traditions of clinical practice and moral decision-making and the literature published over the last 18 months demonstrates a growing momentum for its use. The VBP model has become part of the narrative of health and social care practice. It features in a range of publications and has been subject to philosophical analysis in relation to its theoretical rigour, and applied to clinical practice through education and training, implementation in the field and policy development. From a philosophical perspective the model faces several challenges; from a practice perspective it is welcomed as a necessary partner to Evidence-Based Practice. Both perspectives suggest VBP requires significant adjustment to professional ideas of good practice, expectations of the clinician service user relationship and notions of what constitutes good care. VBP is both a solution and a problem for clinicians. Whether VBP is seen as providing a much needed clinical skill for working with the complexity of mental health and psychiatry which is steeped in values or a solution to a dominant sociopolitical neoliberal ideology demand for choice and personalization of care, VBP will require clinicians to make personal changes to their values base that reach to the depths of their professional identity.

Ecological neighborhoods as a framework for umbrella species selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuber, Erica F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2018-01-01

Umbrella species are typically chosen because they are expected to confer protection for other species assumed to have similar ecological requirements. Despite its popularity and substantial history, the value of the umbrella species concept has come into question because umbrella species chosen using heuristic methods, such as body or home range size, are not acting as adequate proxies for the metrics of interest: species richness or population abundance in a multi-species community for which protection is sought. How species associate with habitat across ecological scales has important implications for understanding population size and species richness, and therefore may be a better proxy for choosing an umbrella species. We determined the spatial scales of ecological neighborhoods important for predicting abundance of 8 potential umbrella species breeding in Nebraska using Bayesian latent indicator scale selection in N-mixture models accounting for imperfect detection. We compare the conservation value measured as collective avian abundance under different umbrella species selected following commonly used criteria and selected based on identifying spatial land cover characteristics within ecological neighborhoods that maximize collective abundance. Using traditional criteria to select an umbrella species resulted in sub-maximal expected collective abundance in 86% of cases compared to selecting an umbrella species based on land cover characteristics that maximized collective abundance directly. We conclude that directly assessing the expected quantitative outcomes, rather than ecological proxies, is likely the most efficient method to maximize the potential for conservation success under the umbrella species concept.

Predicting the Size and Timing of Sunspot Maximum for Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2010-01-01

For cycle 24, the minimum value of the 12-month moving average (12-mma) of the AA-geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (AAm) appears to have occurred in September 2009, measuring about 8.4 nT and following sunspot minimum by 9 months. This is the lowest value of AAm ever recorded, falling below that of 8.9 nT, previously attributed to cycle 14, which also is the smallest maximum amplitude (RM) cycle of the modern era (RM = 64.2). Based on the method of Ohl (the preferential association between RM and AAm for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to have RM = 55+/-17 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval). Instead, using a variation of Ohl's method, one based on using 2-cycle moving averages (2-cma), one expects cycle 23's 2-cma of RM to be about 115.5+/-8.7 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval), inferring an RM of about 62+/-35 for cycle 24. Hence, it seems clear that cycle 24 will be smaller in size than was seen in cycle 23 (RM = 120.8) and, likely, will be comparable in size to that of cycle 14. From the Waldmeier effect (the preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to be a slow-rising cycle (ASC > or equal to 48 months), having RM occurrence after December 2012, unless it turns out to be a statistical outlier.

Non-universal critical exponents in earthquake complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastén, Denisse; Torres, Felipe; Toledo, Benjamín A.; Muñoz, Víctor; Rogan, José; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro

2018-02-01

The problem of universality of critical exponents in complex networks is studied based on networks built from seismic data sets. Using two data sets corresponding to Chilean seismicity (northern zone, including the 2014 Mw = 8 . 2 earthquake in Iquique; and central zone without major earthquakes), directed networks for each set are constructed. Connectivity and betweenness centrality distributions are calculated and found to be scale-free, with respective exponents γ and δ. The expected relation between both characteristic exponents, δ >(γ + 1) / 2, is verified for both data sets. However, unlike the expectation for certain scale-free analytical complex networks, the value of δ is found to be non-universal.

WE-DE-201-11: Sensitivity and Specificity of Verification Methods Based On Total Reference Air Kerma (TRAK) Or On User Provided Dose Points for Graphically Planned Skin HDR Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damato, A; Devlin, P; Bhagwat, M

Purpose: To investigate the sensitivity and specificity of a novel verification methodology for image-guided skin HDR brachytherapy plans using a TRAK-based reasonableness test, compared to a typical manual verification methodology. Methods: Two methodologies were used to flag treatment plans necessitating additional review due to a potential discrepancy of 3 mm between planned dose and clinical target in the skin. Manual verification was used to calculate the discrepancy between the average dose to points positioned at time of planning representative of the prescribed depth and the expected prescription dose. Automatic verification was used to calculate the discrepancy between TRAK of themore » clinical plan and its expected value, which was calculated using standard plans with varying curvatures, ranging from flat to cylindrically circumferential. A plan was flagged if a discrepancy >10% was observed. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using as a criteria for true positive that >10% of plan dwells had a distance to prescription dose >1 mm different than prescription depth (3 mm + size of applicator). All HDR image-based skin brachytherapy plans treated at our institution in 2013 were analyzed. Results: 108 surface applicator plans to treat skin of the face, scalp, limbs, feet, hands or abdomen were analyzed. Median number of catheters was 19 (range, 4 to 71) and median number of dwells was 257 (range, 20 to 1100). Sensitivity/specificity were 57%/78% for manual and 70%/89% for automatic verification. Conclusion: A check based on expected TRAK value is feasible for irregularly shaped, image-guided skin HDR brachytherapy. This test yielded higher sensitivity and specificity than a test based on the identification of representative points, and can be implemented with a dedicated calculation code or with pre-calculated lookup tables of ideally shaped, uniform surface applicators.« less

Life expectancy in elderly patients following burns injury.

PubMed

Sepehripour, Sarvnaz; Duggineni, Sirisha; Shahsavari, Somaya; Dheansa, Baljit

2018-05-18

Burn injuries commonly occur in vulnerable age and social groups. Previous research has shown that frailty may represent a more important marker of adverse outcome in healthcare rather than chronological age (Roberts et al., 2012). In this paper we determined the relationship between burn injury, frailty, co-morbidities and long-term survival. Retrospective data collection from patients aged 75 with burns injuries, treated and discharged at Queen Victoria Hospital. The Clinical Frailty Scale (Rockwood et al., 2005) was used to calculate frailty at the time of admission. The expected mortality age (life expectancy) of deceased patients was obtained from two survival predictors. The data shows a statistically significant correlation between frailty score and complications and a statistically significant correlation between total body surface area percentage and complications. No significant difference was found between expected and observed age of death or life expectancy amongst the deceased (p value of 0.109). Based on the data from our unit, sustaining a burn as an elderly person does not reduce life expectancy. Medical and surgical complications, immediate, early and late, although higher with greater frailty and TBSA of burn, but do not adversely affect survival in this population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fertility in The Netherlands as an expected value process and developmental readiness.

PubMed

Taris, T W

1998-01-01

In this 2-wave panel study, the decision to have children was examined in the context of Feather's (1982) expectancy-value model among a representative sample of 288 childless Dutch adults aged 18-30 years. The effects of 2 indicators of developmental readiness (age and duration of relationship) were also explored. It was expected that (a) the likelihood of having a baby would increase as a function of intentions, evaluations of being childless, and expected rewards of having children and (b) developmental readiness would be positively related to whether respondents had children at the 2nd wave of the study. Structural equation modeling was used. The results largely supported expectations. Developmental readiness affected fertility both directly and indirectly via the expected rewards of having children.

A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenblatt, R. E.

2014-12-01

The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

Highly efficient and stable ultraviolet photocathode based on nanodiamond particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velardi, L.; Valentini, A.; Cicala, G.

2016-02-01

Nanodiamond (ND) layers on silicon substrate are deposited by the pulsed spray technique starting from nanoparticles of about 250 nm dispersed in 1,2-dichloroethane solvent. The aim of this letter is to investigate the quantum efficiency (QE) of photocathodes based on ND particles in the vacuum ultraviolet spectral range. Various ND layers are examined employing as-received and hydrogenated nanoparticles. As expected, the hydrogen plasma treatment improves strongly the photoemission of the layer giving a QE of 22% at 146 nm. Indeed, this efficiency value is achieved only if the particles are treated in H2 microwave plasma before the growth of the sprayed layer rather than to hydrogenate the already formed one. These QE values are higher than those of photocathodes based on plasma chemical vapor deposition diamond films, but with the advantage of being much stable, too. The highest QE values are explained to be due to the intrinsic chemical and structural features of utilized ND particles.

A singular value decomposition approach for improved taxonomic classification of biological sequences

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Singular value decomposition (SVD) is a powerful technique for information retrieval; it helps uncover relationships between elements that are not prima facie related. SVD was initially developed to reduce the time needed for information retrieval and analysis of very large data sets in the complex internet environment. Since information retrieval from large-scale genome and proteome data sets has a similar level of complexity, SVD-based methods could also facilitate data analysis in this research area. Results We found that SVD applied to amino acid sequences demonstrates relationships and provides a basis for producing clusters and cladograms, demonstrating evolutionary relatedness of species that correlates well with Linnaean taxonomy. The choice of a reasonable number of singular values is crucial for SVD-based studies. We found that fewer singular values are needed to produce biologically significant clusters when SVD is employed. Subsequently, we developed a method to determine the lowest number of singular values and fewest clusters needed to guarantee biological significance; this system was developed and validated by comparison with Linnaean taxonomic classification. Conclusions By using SVD, we can reduce uncertainty concerning the appropriate rank value necessary to perform accurate information retrieval analyses. In tests, clusters that we developed with SVD perfectly matched what was expected based on Linnaean taxonomy. PMID:22369633

Theorethical principles of fluid managment according to physicochemical Stewart approach.

PubMed

Smuszkiewicz, Piotr; Szrama, Jakub

2013-01-01

Interpreting acid base disturbances according to the physicochemical Stewart approach allows the cause of such abnormalities to be discovered. This method is based on three independent variables: SID (strong ion difference), mainly sodium and chloride; weak acids concentration - Atot, mainly albumins and phosphate; and carbon dioxide tension - pCO₂. These three independent variables are responsible for the change of water dissociation and for the change in H+ concentration and, consequently, the change in serum pH value. The SID value of the fluids administered to a patient is responsible for the change of serum SID value and therefore causes a change in the patient's acid base status. During the infusion of a given fluid, the SID value of the serum becomes closer to the SID value of that fluid; on the other hand, the infusion causes a decrease in Atot concentration. In order to avoid acid base disturbances connected with fluid administration, the SID value of fluids being administered should be greater than 0 and lower then the serum SID. It has been suggested that fluids should be given of which the SID value is as close as possible to the actual serum HCO₃ concentration. Knowing the SID value of the fluid administered, and the serum HCO₃ concentration, one can expect a change of serum pH after a fluid infusion. Administering a fluid with a SID greater than the HCO₃ concentration causes a pH increase towards alkalosis. Likewise, administering a a fluid with a SID lower than the HCO₃ concentration causes a pH decrease towards acidosis. It seems that knowledge of the electrolyte concentration and the SID value of an administered fluid is an important factor regarding acid base disturbances.

A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortes, Antonio I.

The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer hypotheses for human testing using flight simulators.

The probability of being identified as an outlier with commonly used funnel plot control limits for the standardised mortality ratio.

PubMed

Seaton, Sarah E; Manktelow, Bradley N

2012-07-16

Emphasis is increasingly being placed on the monitoring of clinical outcomes for health care providers. Funnel plots have become an increasingly popular graphical methodology used to identify potential outliers. It is assumed that a provider only displaying expected random variation (i.e. 'in-control') will fall outside a control limit with a known probability. In reality, the discrete count nature of these data, and the differing methods, can lead to true probabilities quite different from the nominal value. This paper investigates the true probability of an 'in control' provider falling outside control limits for the Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). The true probabilities of an 'in control' provider falling outside control limits for the SMR were calculated and compared for three commonly used limits: Wald confidence interval; 'exact' confidence interval; probability-based prediction interval. The probability of falling above the upper limit, or below the lower limit, often varied greatly from the nominal value. This was particularly apparent when there were a small number of expected events: for expected events ≤ 50 the median probability of an 'in-control' provider falling above the upper 95% limit was 0.0301 (Wald), 0.0121 ('exact'), 0.0201 (prediction). It is important to understand the properties and probability of being identified as an outlier by each of these different methods to aid the correct identification of poorly performing health care providers. The limits obtained using probability-based prediction limits have the most intuitive interpretation and their properties can be defined a priori. Funnel plot control limits for the SMR should not be based on confidence intervals.

Managing Astronomy Research Data: Data Practices in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sands, Ashley Elizabeth

2017-01-01

Ground-based astronomy sky surveys are massive, decades-long investments in scientific data collection. Stakeholders expect these datasets to retain scientific value well beyond the lifetime of the sky survey. However, the necessary investments in knowledge infrastructures for managing sky survey data are not yet in place to ensure the long-term…

Assessing public response to freeway roadsides: urban forestry and context-sensitive solutions

Treesearch

Kathleen L. Wolf

2006-01-01

Social science methods can be used to assess how the public values contextsensitive solutions. The roadside landscape is a public lands resource that has many functions and provides many benefits. Diverse stakeholders may have varied expectations for roadside design. The urban forest is often a contested component of the urban roadside. Two research surveys based on...

Expectations, Observations, and the Cognitive Processes That Bind Them: Expert Assessment of Examinee Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St-Onge, Christina; Chamberland, Martine; Lévesque, Annie; Varpio, Lara

2016-01-01

Performance-based assessment (PBA) is a valued assessment approach in medical education, be it in a clerkship, residency, or practice context. Raters are intrinsic to PBA and the increased use of PBA has lead to an increased interest in rater cognition. Although several researchers have tackled factors that may influence the variability in rater…

Member’s Perception of Service Quality At the Nellis Air Force Base Officers Open Mess

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-05-01

35 Consumer Behavior ............................... 36 Perceptions ...................................... 37 Value...110 Table 13. Problem Resolution: Overall Service Quality .... 111 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Faith Popcorn’s Ten Changes in Consumer Behavior .......................................... 16...military club has the same characteristics as their civilian counterparts in regards to consumer behavior , needs, and expectations; S3: The miliary

Do Test Design and Uses Influence Test Preparation? Testing a Model of Washback with Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xie, Qin; Andrews, Stephen

2013-01-01

This study introduces Expectancy-value motivation theory to explain the paths of influences from perceptions of test design and uses to test preparation as a special case of washback on learning. Based on this theory, two conceptual models were proposed and tested via Structural Equation Modeling. Data collection involved over 870 test takers of…

The Virtue of Culture in Understanding Motivation at School: Commentary on the Special Issue on Culture and Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guay, Frédéric

2016-01-01

Students' higher level of motivation is not based solely on intrapersonal factors as innate characteristics, but also on contexts in which students are supposed to develop their competencies. Thus, the cultural context is expected to shape motivation. Values and beliefs shared by a cultural group will affect students' motivation to learn and…

Wave transmission approach based on modal analysis for embedded mechanical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cretu, Nicolae; Nita, Gelu; Ioan Pop, Mihail

2013-09-01

An experimental method for determining the phase velocity in small solid samples is proposed. The method is based on measuring the resonant frequencies of a binary or ternary solid elastic system comprising the small sample of interest and a gauge material of manageable size. The wave transmission matrix of the combined system is derived and the theoretical values of its eigenvalues are used to determine the expected eigenfrequencies that, equated with the measured values, allow for the numerical estimation of the phase velocities in both materials. The known phase velocity of the gauge material is then used to asses the accuracy of the method. Using computer simulation and the experimental values for phase velocities, the theoretical values for the eigenfrequencies of the eigenmodes of the embedded elastic system are obtained, to validate the method. We conclude that the proposed experimental method may be reliably used to determine the elastic properties of small solid samples whose geometries do not allow a direct measurement of their resonant frequencies.

Distribution of apparent activation energy counterparts during thermo - And thermo-oxidative degradation of Aronia melanocarpa (black chokeberry).

PubMed

Janković, Bojan; Marinović-Cincović, Milena; Janković, Marija

2017-09-01

Kinetics of degradation for Aronia melanocarpa fresh fruits in argon and air atmospheres were investigated. The investigation was based on probability distributions of apparent activation energy of counterparts (ε a ). Isoconversional analysis results indicated that the degradation process in an inert atmosphere was governed by decomposition reactions of esterified compounds. Also, based on same kinetics approach, it was assumed that in an air atmosphere, the primary compound in degradation pathways could be anthocyanins, which undergo rapid chemical reactions. A new model of reactivity demonstrated that, under inert atmospheres, expectation values for ε a occured at levels of statistical probability. These values corresponded to decomposition processes in which polyphenolic compounds might be involved. ε a values obeyed laws of binomial distribution. It was established that, for thermo-oxidative degradation, Poisson distribution represented a very successful approximation for ε a values where there was additional mechanistic complexity and the binomial distribution was no longer valid. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast Bayesian experimental design: Laplace-based importance sampling for the expected information gain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Joakim; Dia, Ben Mansour; Espath, Luis F. R.; Long, Quan; Tempone, Raúl

2018-06-01

In calculating expected information gain in optimal Bayesian experimental design, the computation of the inner loop in the classical double-loop Monte Carlo requires a large number of samples and suffers from underflow if the number of samples is small. These drawbacks can be avoided by using an importance sampling approach. We present a computationally efficient method for optimal Bayesian experimental design that introduces importance sampling based on the Laplace method to the inner loop. We derive the optimal values for the method parameters in which the average computational cost is minimized according to the desired error tolerance. We use three numerical examples to demonstrate the computational efficiency of our method compared with the classical double-loop Monte Carlo, and a more recent single-loop Monte Carlo method that uses the Laplace method as an approximation of the return value of the inner loop. The first example is a scalar problem that is linear in the uncertain parameter. The second example is a nonlinear scalar problem. The third example deals with the optimal sensor placement for an electrical impedance tomography experiment to recover the fiber orientation in laminate composites.

Neural computing thermal comfort index PMV for the indoor environment intelligent control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chang; Chen, Yifei

2013-03-01

Providing indoor thermal comfort and saving energy are two main goals of indoor environmental control system. An intelligent comfort control system by combining the intelligent control and minimum power control strategies for the indoor environment is presented in this paper. In the system, for realizing the comfort control, the predicted mean vote (PMV) is designed as the control goal, and with chastening formulas of PMV, it is controlled to optimize for improving indoor comfort lever by considering six comfort related variables. On the other hand, a RBF neural network based on genetic algorithm is designed to calculate PMV for better performance and overcoming the nonlinear feature of the PMV calculation better. The formulas given in the paper are presented for calculating the expected output values basing on the input samples, and the RBF network model is trained depending on input samples and the expected output values. The simulation result is proved that the design of the intelligent calculation method is valid. Moreover, this method has a lot of advancements such as high precision, fast dynamic response and good system performance are reached, it can be used in practice with requested calculating error.

Life expectancy in bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

2015-08-01

Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we calculated remaining life expectancies for values of age 15, 25, 35 ⃛ 75 years among all individuals alive in year 2000. For the typical male or female patient aged 25 to 45 years, the remaining life expectancy was decreased by 12.0-8.7 years and 10.6-8.3 years, respectively. The ratio between remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously reported. Patients start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness of breech version by acupuncture-type interventions on BL 67, including moxibustion, for women with a breech foetus at 33 weeks gestation: a modelling approach.

PubMed

van den Berg, Ineke; Kaandorp, Guido C; Bosch, Johanna L; Duvekot, Johannes J; Arends, Lidia R; Hunink, M G Myriam

2010-04-01

To assess, using a modelling approach, the effectiveness and costs of breech version with acupuncture-type interventions on BL67 (BVA-T), including moxibustion, compared to expectant management for women with a foetal breech presentation at 33 weeks gestation. A decision tree was developed to predict the number of caesarean sections prevented by BVA-T compared to expectant management to rectify breech presentation. The model accounted for external cephalic versions (ECV), treatment compliance, and costs for 10,000 simulated breech presentations at 33 weeks gestational age. Event rates were taken from Dutch population data and the international literature, and the relative effectiveness of BVA-T was based on a specific meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the results. We calculated percentages of breech presentations at term, caesarean sections, and costs from the third-party payer perspective. Odds ratios (OR) and cost differences of BVA-T versus expectant management were calculated. (Probabilistic) sensitivity analysis and expected value of perfect information analysis were performed. The simulated outcomes demonstrated 32% breech presentations after BVA-T versus 53% with expectant management (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.43, 0.83). The percentage caesarean section was 37% after BVA-T versus 50% with expectant management (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59, 0.88). The mean cost-savings per woman was euro 451 (95% CI euro 109, euro 775; p=0.005) using moxibustion. Sensitivity analysis showed that if 16% or more of women offered moxibustion complied, it was more effective and less costly than expectant management. To prevent one caesarean section, 7 women had to use BVA-T. The expected value of perfect information from further research was euro0.32 per woman. The results suggest that offering BVA-T to women with a breech foetus at 33 weeks gestation reduces the number of breech presentations at term, thus reducing the number of caesarean sections, and is cost-effective compared to expectant management, including external cephalic version. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the value-adding impact of diagnostic-type tests on drug development and marketing.

PubMed

Blair, Edward D

2008-01-01

We explore the cash value of the companion diagnostics opportunity from the perspective of the pharmaceutical partner. Cashflow-based modeling is used to demonstrate the potential financial benefits of key relationships between the pharmaceutical and diagnostics industries. In four scenarios, the uplift in the net present value (NPV) of a proprietary medicine can exceed $US1.8 billion. By simple extrapolation, the uplifted NPV calculations allow realistic and plausible estimates of the companion diagnostic opportunity to be in the region of $US40 billion to $US90 billion. It is expected that such market valuation could drive a macroeconomic change that shifts healthcare practice from reactionary disease-treatment to proactive health maintenance.

Applying the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects to detect abnormal rises in school absenteeism indicating infectious diseases outbreak.

PubMed

Song, X X; Zhao, Q; Tao, T; Zhou, C M; Diwan, V K; Xu, B

2018-05-30

Records of absenteeism from primary schools are valuable data for infectious diseases surveillance. However, the analysis of the absenteeism is complicated by the data features of clustering at zero, non-independence and overdispersion. This study aimed to generate an appropriate model to handle the absenteeism data collected in a European Commission granted project for infectious disease surveillance in rural China and to evaluate the validity and timeliness of the resulting model for early warnings of infectious disease outbreak. Four steps were taken: (1) building a 'well-fitting' model by the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects (ZIP-RE) using the absenteeism data from the first implementation year; (2) applying the resulting model to predict the 'expected' number of absenteeism events in the second implementation year; (3) computing the differences between the observations and the expected values (O-E values) to generate an alternative series of data; (4) evaluating the early warning validity and timeliness of the observational data and model-based O-E values via the EARS-3C algorithms with regard to the detection of real cluster events. The results indicate that ZIP-RE and its corresponding O-E values could improve the detection of aberrations, reduce the false-positive signals and are applicable to the zero-inflated data.

Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation of the Expected Value of Sample Information Using Moment Matching.

PubMed

Heath, Anna; Manolopoulou, Ioanna; Baio, Gianluca

2018-02-01

The Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) is used to calculate the economic value of a new research strategy. Although this value would be important to both researchers and funders, there are very few practical applications of the EVSI. This is due to computational difficulties associated with calculating the EVSI in practical health economic models using nested simulations. We present an approximation method for the EVSI that is framed in a Bayesian setting and is based on estimating the distribution of the posterior mean of the incremental net benefit across all possible future samples, known as the distribution of the preposterior mean. Specifically, this distribution is estimated using moment matching coupled with simulations that are available for probabilistic sensitivity analysis, which is typically mandatory in health economic evaluations. This novel approximation method is applied to a health economic model that has previously been used to assess the performance of other EVSI estimators and accurately estimates the EVSI. The computational time for this method is competitive with other methods. We have developed a new calculation method for the EVSI which is computationally efficient and accurate. This novel method relies on some additional simulation so can be expensive in models with a large computational cost.

Determining the Release of Radionuclides from Tank 18F Waste Residual Solids: FY2016 Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, William D.; Hobbs, David T.

Pore water leaching studies were conducted on actual Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank 18F residual waste solids to support Liquid Waste tank closure efforts. A test methodology was developed during previous simulant testing to produce slurries of tank residual solids and grout-representative solids in grout pore water solutions (based on SRS groundwater compositions) with pH and E h values expected during the aging of the closed waste tank. The target conditions are provided below where the initial pore water has a reducing potential and a relatively high pH (Reducing Region II). The pore water is expected to become increasingly oxidizingmore » with time (Oxidizing Region II) and during the latter stages of aging (Oxidizing Region III) the pH is expected to decrease. For the reducing case, tests were conducted with both unwashed and washed Tank 18F residual solids. For the oxidizing cases (Oxidizing Regions II and III), all samples were washed with simulated grout pore water solutions prior to testing, since it is expected that these conditions will occur after considerable pore water solution has passed through the system. For the reducing case, separate tests were conducted with representative ground grout solids and with calcium carbonate reagent, which is the grout phase believed to be controlling the pH. Ferrous sulfide (FeS) solids were also added to the reducing samples to lower the slurry E h value. Calcium carbonate solids were used as the grout-representative solid phase for each of the oxidizing cases. Air purge-gas with and without CO 2 removed was transferred through the oxidizing test samples and nitrogen purge-gas was transferred through the reducing test samples during leach testing. The target pH values were achieved to within 0.5 pH units for all samples. Leaching studies were conducted over an E h range of approximately 0.7 V. However, the highest and lowest E h values achieved of ~+0.5 V and ~-0.2 V were significantly less positive and less negative, respectively, than the target values. Achievement of more positive and more negative E h values is believed to require the addition of non-representative oxidants and reductants, respectively.« less

Quantification of whispering gallery mode spectrum variability in application to sensing nanobiophotonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saetchnikov, Anton; Skakun, Victor; Saetchnikov, Vladimir; Tcherniavskaia, Elina; Ostendorf, Andreas

2017-10-01

An approach for the automated whispering gallery mode (WGM) signal decomposition and its parameter estimation is discussed. The algorithm is based on the peak picking and can be applied for the preprocessing of the raw signal acquired from the multiplied WGM-based biosensing chips. Quantitative estimations representing physically meaningful parameters of the external disturbing factors on the WGM spectral shape are the output values. Derived parameters can be directly applied to the further deep qualitative and quantitative interpretations of the sensed disturbing factors. The algorithm is tested on both simulated and experimental data taken from the bovine serum albumin biosensing task. The proposed solution is expected to be a useful contribution to the preprocessing phase of the complete data analysis engine and is expected to push the WGM technology toward the real-live sensing nanobiophotonics.

Simulation and modeling of the temporal performance of path-based restoration schemes in planar mesh networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Manish; McCaughan, Leon; Olkhovets, Anatoli; Korotky, Steven K.

2006-12-01

We formulate an analytic framework for the restoration performance of path-based restoration schemes in planar mesh networks. We analyze various switch architectures and signaling schemes and model their total restoration interval. We also evaluate the network global expectation value of the time to restore a demand as a function of network parameters. We analyze a wide range of nominally capacity-optimal planar mesh networks and find our analytic model to be in good agreement with numerical simulation data.

[Trust-based economics with medicine outcome-based pricing].

PubMed

Lhoste, F

2013-09-01

In recent decades, the pharmaceutical industry as built a high level of confidence thanks to innovative medicines that improve both duration and quality of life. Some recent scandals have however discredited this industry, now suspected of cheating or bribery. Even the scientific progresses are challenged on the ground of possible conflicts of interests and value uncertainty. This situation is deleterious. Simultaneously the economic crisis exacerbates the payers' expectations in terms of clinical value and value/price ratio. It also stimulates the demand for outcomes in real life. This induces a new economic approach for the market access of highly expensive reimbursable drugs. It consists in paying only for drugs actually proven effective in terms of actual outcomes, with a full or partial refund of the payer in case of failure, according to accurate and simple criteria in so called "performance agreement". Confidence is restored accordingly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Trajectories of Mexican American and Mainstream Cultural Values Among Mexican American Adolescents

PubMed Central

Knight, George P.; Basilio, Camille D.; Cham, Heining; Gonzales, Nancy A.; Liu, Yu; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J.

2013-01-01

Mexican Americans are one of the largest and fastest growing ethnic groups in the United States, yet we have limited knowledge regarding changes (i.e., developmental trajectories) in cultural orientation based upon their exposure to the Mexican American and mainstream cultures. We examined the parallel trajectories of Mexican American and mainstream cultural values in a sample of 749 Mexican American adolescents (49% female) across assessments during the fifth grade (approximately 11 years of age), the seventh grade (approximately 13 years of age) and the tenth grade (approximately 16 years of age). We expected that these values would change over this developmental period and this longitudinal approach is more appropriate than the often used median split classification to identify distinct types of acculturation. We found four distinct acculturation trajectory groups: two trajectory groups that were increasing slightly with age in the endorsement of mainstream cultural values, one of which was relatively stable in Mexican American cultural values while the other was declining in their endorsement of these values; and two trajectory groups that were declining substantially with age in their endorsement of mainstream cultural values, one of which was also declining in Mexican American cultural values and the other which was stable in these values. These four trajectory groups differed in expected ways on a number of theoretically related cultural variables, but were not highly consistent with the median split classifications. The findings highlight the need to utilize longitudinal data to examine the developmental changes of Mexican American individual’s adaptation to the ethnic and mainstream culture in order to understand more fully the processes of acculturation and enculturation. PMID:23877194

Trajectories of Mexican American and mainstream cultural values among Mexican American adolescents.

PubMed

Knight, George P; Basilio, Camille D; Cham, Heining; Gonzales, Nancy A; Liu, Yu; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J

2014-12-01

Mexican Americans are one of the largest and fastest growing ethnic groups in the United States, yet we have limited knowledge regarding changes (i.e., developmental trajectories) in cultural orientation based upon their exposure to the Mexican American and mainstream cultures. We examined the parallel trajectories of Mexican American and mainstream cultural values in a sample of 749 Mexican American adolescents (49 % female) across assessments during the fifth grade (approximately 11 years of age), the seventh grade (approximately 13 years of age) and the tenth grade (approximately 16 years of age). We expected that these values would change over this developmental period and this longitudinal approach is more appropriate than the often used median split classification to identify distinct types of acculturation. We found four distinct acculturation trajectory groups: two trajectory groups that were increasing slightly with age in the endorsement of mainstream cultural values, one of which was relatively stable in Mexican American cultural values while the other was declining in their endorsement of these values; and two trajectory groups that were declining substantially with age in their endorsement of mainstream cultural values, one of which was also declining in Mexican American cultural values and the other which was stable in these values. These four trajectory groups differed in expected ways on a number of theoretically related cultural variables, but were not highly consistent with the median split classifications. The findings highlight the need to utilize longitudinal data to examine the developmental changes of Mexican American individual's adaptation to the ethnic and mainstream culture in order to understand more fully the processes of acculturation and enculturation.

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2010-01-01

Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

Model-Based and Model-Free Pavlovian Reward Learning: Revaluation, Revision and Revelation

PubMed Central

Dayan, Peter; Berridge, Kent C.

2014-01-01

Evidence supports at least two methods for learning about reward and punishment and making predictions for guiding actions. One method, called model-free, progressively acquires cached estimates of the long-run values of circumstances and actions from retrospective experience. The other method, called model-based, uses representations of the environment, expectations and prospective calculations to make cognitive predictions of future value. Extensive attention has been paid to both methods in computational analyses of instrumental learning. By contrast, although a full computational analysis has been lacking, Pavlovian learning and prediction has typically been presumed to be solely model-free. Here, we revise that presumption and review compelling evidence from Pavlovian revaluation experiments showing that Pavlovian predictions can involve their own form of model-based evaluation. In model-based Pavlovian evaluation, prevailing states of the body and brain influence value computations, and thereby produce powerful incentive motivations that can sometimes be quite new. We consider the consequences of this revised Pavlovian view for the computational landscape of prediction, response and choice. We also revisit differences between Pavlovian and instrumental learning in the control of incentive motivation. PMID:24647659

Model-based and model-free Pavlovian reward learning: revaluation, revision, and revelation.

PubMed

Dayan, Peter; Berridge, Kent C

2014-06-01

Evidence supports at least two methods for learning about reward and punishment and making predictions for guiding actions. One method, called model-free, progressively acquires cached estimates of the long-run values of circumstances and actions from retrospective experience. The other method, called model-based, uses representations of the environment, expectations, and prospective calculations to make cognitive predictions of future value. Extensive attention has been paid to both methods in computational analyses of instrumental learning. By contrast, although a full computational analysis has been lacking, Pavlovian learning and prediction has typically been presumed to be solely model-free. Here, we revise that presumption and review compelling evidence from Pavlovian revaluation experiments showing that Pavlovian predictions can involve their own form of model-based evaluation. In model-based Pavlovian evaluation, prevailing states of the body and brain influence value computations, and thereby produce powerful incentive motivations that can sometimes be quite new. We consider the consequences of this revised Pavlovian view for the computational landscape of prediction, response, and choice. We also revisit differences between Pavlovian and instrumental learning in the control of incentive motivation.

Effects of Client Expectation for Counseling Success, Client-Counselor Worldview Match, and Client Adherence to Asian and European American Cultural Values on Counseling Process with Asian Americans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Bryan S. K.; Ng, Gladys F.; Ahn, Annie J.

2005-01-01

After assessing their expectation for counseling success, adherence to Asian cultural values, and adherence to European American cultural values, 88 Asian American volunteer clients with personal concerns engaged in single-session counseling with 1 of 11 female counselors who either matched or mismatched the client's worldview. Clients in the…

Relative added value: what are the tools to evaluate it?

PubMed

Le Jeunne, Claire; Woronoff-Lemsi, Marie-Christine; David, Nadine; de Sahb, Rima

2008-01-01

The relative added value of a drug is currently evaluated in France by the Transparency Commission (TC) of the National Health Authority (HAS), by assigning a level of Improvement in Actual Benefit (IAB). IAB is based on two parameters, efficacy and safety of the product, in a defined target population, either as compared to one or more other drugs with similar indications, or within therapeutic strategy. The items used for evaluation, including the level of clinical effect, the relevance of the comparator, the choice of comparison criteria and the methodology used (indirect comparison, non-inferiority studies, etc.), have been reviewed by the working group in Giens with regard to an analysis of the opinion on TC issued between 2004 and 2007 in several therapeutic areas First of all, this attempt at rationalisation based on the criteria used to assess the relative added value demonstrated the rareness of direct comparative data, and was followed by a discussion on the possible broadening of the evaluation criteria. The group discussed taking into account the Public Health Impact (PHI), which has now been incorporated into the assessment of Actual Benefit (AB). The group believes that PHI seems to be more related to the notion of IAB than to that of AB. Indeed, it is frequently the relative added value of a new drug that produces an impact in public health. Conversely, considering the comparative evaluation criteria of PHI, which are not systematically taken into account in IMSR (such as improvement in the health of the population, meeting a public health need or impact on the healthcare system), PHI could legitimately be included in the assessment of the relative added value of a drug. Other parameters such as compliance or impact on professional practice have been considered. Thus, the notion of relative added value, evaluated at initial registration, could be based on an expected improvement in medical service. The notion of expected medical service leads to the requirement of producing additional data in real life (post-registration studies), which would support the definitive notion of improvement in actual benefit at the time of renewed registration, while taking into account the place occupied by the drug in the therapeutic strategy.

The social construction of copyright ethics and values.

PubMed

Slaughter, Sheila; Rhoades, Gary

2010-06-01

This study is based on analysis of copyright policies and 26 interviews with science and engineering faculty at three research universities on the topic of copyright beliefs, values, and practices, with emphasis on copyright of instructional materials, courseware, tools, and texts. Given that research universities now emphasize increasing external revenue flows through marketing of intellectual property, we expected copyright to follow the path of patents and lead to institutional emphasis of policies and practices that enhanced universities' intellectual property portfolios, accompanied by an increase in copyrighting by professors. Although this pattern occurred with regard to institutions, professors offered a more varied pattern, with some fully participating in commercialization of copyright and embracing entrepreneurial values, while others resisted or subverted commercial activity in favor of traditional science and engineering values.

Reliability Engineering Handbook

DTIC Science & Technology

1964-06-01

Figure 6-18(a). The Chi-Square (X 2) Test compares the observed values against the Expected Am = 1 A = &. 0002 ) expected values in the tables. 5C 5...9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441 1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 . 9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545 1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608

Learner-Valued Interactions: Research into Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ley, Kathryn; Gannon-Cook, Ruth

2014-01-01

Online learners provide feedback that does not always match with the expectations of what university administration would expect from their feedback. Learners do not value all instructional features and conditions equally, nor do they view many of the instructional and technology features as being necessarily helpful. This paper presents research…

Career Expectations and Perceptions of Part-Time MBA Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fish, Lynn A.; Fish, Lauren A.

2010-01-01

In the U.S., part-time MBA students regard work/life balance as the critical factor that drives career expectations and perceptions. Job aspects and benefits/compensation closely follow in importance, while employee relations are valued less. Within work/life balance, students value job location, travel time, and telecommuting. Promotional…

Job Preferences in the Anticipatory Socialization Phase: A Comparison of Two Matching Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moss, Mira K.; Frieze, Irene Hanson

1993-01-01

Responses from 86 business administration graduate students tested (1) a model matching self-concept to development of job preferences and (2) an expectancy-value model. Both models significantly predicted job preferences; a higher proportion of variance was explained by the expectancy-value model. (SK)

Fourth Graders' Motivation in an Elementary Physical Education Running Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron E.; Bruene, April

2004-01-01

In this study we examined students' motivation in an elementary physical education running program using achievement goal theory and an expectancy-value model of achievement choice as theoretical frameworks. Fourth graders (N = 119) completed questionnaires assessing their achievement goals, expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and…

Charting the Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model from Mothers' Beliefs in Childhood to Youths' Activities in Adolescence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpkins, Sandra D.; Fredricks, Jennifer A.; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.

2012-01-01

The Eccles' expectancy-value model posits that a cascade of mechanisms explain associations between parents' beliefs and youths' achievement-related behaviors. Specifically, parents' beliefs predict parents' behaviors; in turn, parents' behaviors predict youths' motivational beliefs, and youths' motivational beliefs predict their behaviors. This…

Exploring Adolescent Motivations for Pursuing Maths-Related Careers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watt, Helen M. G.

2005-01-01

Adolescents from grade 9 in Sydney Australia (N = 60) were interviewed regarding why they would or would not consider pursuing maths-related careers. Open-ended interview data explored the comprehensiveness of explanations within the Expectancy-Value framework. The Expectancy-Value model is the major motivational framework for explaining students'…

Negotiating Academic Values, Professorial Responsibilities and Expectations for Accountability in Today's University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, Luanna H.

2012-01-01

This paper argues that it is reasonable to expect the professoriate, including full professors, to balance traditional academic values with external demands for accountability. Today's universities are characterised by increasing diversity, wider access to higher education, decreasing funding and greater oversight through quality assurance:…

Graduated compression stockings for the prevention of deep-vein thrombosis in postoperative surgical patients: a systematic review and economic model with a value of information analysis.

PubMed

Wade, Ros; Sideris, Eleftherios; Paton, Fiona; Rice, Stephen; Palmer, Stephen; Fox, Dave; Woolacott, Nerys; Spackman, Eldon

2015-11-01

Deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) can occur in surgical patients. Routine prophylaxis can be pharmacological and/or mechanical [e.g. graduated compression stockings (GCSs)]. GCSs are available in knee length or thigh length. To establish the expected value of undertaking additional research addressing the relative effectiveness of thigh-length GCSs versus knee-length GCSs, in addition to pharmacoprophylaxis, for prevention of DVT in surgical patients. Systematic review and economic model, including value of information (VOI) analysis. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) assessing thigh- or knee-length GCSs in surgical patients were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome was incidence of DVT. DVT complications and GCSs adverse events were assessed. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed. To draw on a wider evidence base, a random-effects network meta-analysis (NMA) was undertaken for the outcome DVT. A review of trials and observational studies of patient adherence was also conducted. A decision-analytic model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of thigh- and knee-length GCSs and the VOI. Twenty-three RCTs were included in the review of effectiveness. There was substantial variation between trials in terms of the patient characteristics, interventions and methods of outcome assessment. Five trials comparing knee-length with thigh-length GCSs with or without pharmacoprophylaxis were pooled; the summary estimate of effect indicated a non-significant trend favouring thigh-length GCSs [odds ratio (OR) 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80 to 2.73]. Thirteen trials were included in the NMA. In the base-case analysis, thigh-length GCSs with pharmacoprophylaxis were more effective than knee-length GCSs with pharmacoprophylaxis (knee vs. thigh OR 1.76, 95% credible interval 0.82 to 3.53). Overall, thigh-length stockings with pharmacoprophylaxis was the most effective treatment, with a 0.73 probability of being the most effective treatment in a new trial of all the treatments. Patient adherence was generally higher with knee-length GCSs, and patients preferred knee-length GCSs. Thigh-length GCSs were found to be cost-effective in all but the subgroup with the lowest baseline risk, although the absolute differences in costs and effects were relatively small. The expected value of perfect information ranged from £0.2M to £178.0M depending on the scenario and subgroup. The relative effect parameters had the highest expected value of partial perfect information and ranged from £2.0M to £39.4M. The value of further research was most evident in the high-risk subgroups. There was substantial variation across the included trials in terms of patient and intervention characteristics. Many of the included trials were old and poorly reported, which reduces the reliability of the results of the review. Given that the results from both the standard meta-analysis and the NMA lacked precision (CIs were wide) owing to the heterogeneous evidence base, a new definitive trial in high-risk patients may be warranted. However, the efficiency of any further research (i.e. whether this represents value for money) is dependent on several factors, including the acquisition price of GCSs, expected compliance with thigh-length GCSs wear, and whether or not uncertainty can be resolved around possible effect modifiers, as well as the feasibility and actual cost of undertaking the proposed research. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014007202. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Monitoring trichloroethene remediation at an iron permeable reactive barrier using stable carbon isotopic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanStone, Nancy; Przepiora, Andrzej; Vogan, John; Lacrampe-Couloume, Georges; Powers, Brian; Perez, Ernesto; Mabury, Scott; Sherwood Lollar, Barbara

2005-08-01

Stable carbon isotopic analysis, in combination with compositional analysis, was used to evaluate the performance of an iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for the remediation of ground water contaminated with trichloroethene (TCE) at Spill Site 7 (SS7), F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming. Compositional data indicated that although the PRB appeared to be reducing TCE to concentrations below treatment goals within and immediately downgradient of the PRB, concentrations remained higher than expected at wells further downgradient (i.e. > 9 m) of the PRB. At two wells downgradient of the PRB, TCE concentrations were comparable to upgradient values, and δ13C values of TCE at these wells were not significantly different than upgradient values. Since the process of sorption/desorption does not significantly fractionate carbon isotope values, this suggests that the TCE observed at these wells is desorbing from local aquifer materials and was present before the PRB was installed. In contrast, three other downgradient wells show significantly more enriched δ13C values compared to the upgradient mean. In addition, δ13C values for the degradation products of TCE, cis-dichloroethene and vinyl chloride, show fractionation patterns expected for the products of the reductive dechlorination of TCE. Since concentrations of both TCE and degradation products drop to below detection limit in wells within the PRB and directly below it, these downgradient chlorinated hydrocarbon concentrations are attributed to desorption from local aquifer material. The carbon isotope values indicate that this dissolved contaminant is subject to local degradation, likely due to in situ microbial activity.

Monitoring trichloroethene remediation at an iron permeable reactive barrier using stable carbon isotopic analysis.

PubMed

VanStone, Nancy; Przepiora, Andrzej; Vogan, John; Lacrampe-Couloume, Georges; Powers, Brian; Perez, Ernesto; Mabury, Scott; Sherwood Lollar, Barbara

2005-08-01

Stable carbon isotopic analysis, in combination with compositional analysis, was used to evaluate the performance of an iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for the remediation of ground water contaminated with trichloroethene (TCE) at Spill Site 7 (SS7), F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming. Compositional data indicated that although the PRB appeared to be reducing TCE to concentrations below treatment goals within and immediately downgradient of the PRB, concentrations remained higher than expected at wells further downgradient (i.e. >9 m) of the PRB. At two wells downgradient of the PRB, TCE concentrations were comparable to upgradient values, and delta13C values of TCE at these wells were not significantly different than upgradient values. Since the process of sorption/desorption does not significantly fractionate carbon isotope values, this suggests that the TCE observed at these wells is desorbing from local aquifer materials and was present before the PRB was installed. In contrast, three other downgradient wells show significantly more enriched delta13C values compared to the upgradient mean. In addition, delta13C values for the degradation products of TCE, cis-dichloroethene and vinyl chloride, show fractionation patterns expected for the products of the reductive dechlorination of TCE. Since concentrations of both TCE and degradation products drop to below detection limit in wells within the PRB and directly below it, these downgradient chlorinated hydrocarbon concentrations are attributed to desorption from local aquifer material. The carbon isotope values indicate that this dissolved contaminant is subject to local degradation, likely due to in situ microbial activity.

Expected Monotonicity – A Desirable Property for Evidence Measures?

PubMed Central

Hodge, Susan E.; Vieland, Veronica J.

2010-01-01

We consider here the principle of ‘evidential consistency’ – that as one gathers more data, any well-behaved evidence measure should, in some sense, approach the true answer. Evidential consistency is essential for the genome-scan design (GWAS or linkage), where one selects the most promising locus(i) for follow-up, expecting that new data will increase evidence for the correct hypothesis. Earlier work [Vieland, Hum Hered 2006;61:144–156] showed that many popular statistics do not satisfy this principle; Vieland concluded that the problem stems from fundamental difficulties in how we measure evidence and argued for determining criteria to evaluate evidence measures. Here, we investigate in detail one proposed consistency criterion – expected monotonicity (ExpM) – for a simple statistical model (binomial) and four likelihood ratio (LR)-based evidence measures. We show that, with one limited exception, none of these measures displays ExpM; what they do display is sometimes counterintuitive. We conclude that ExpM is not a reasonable requirement for evidence measures; moreover, no requirement based on expected values seems feasible. We demonstrate certain desirable properties of the simple LR and demonstrate a connection between the simple and integrated LRs. We also consider an alternative version of consistency, which is satisfied by certain forms of the integrated LR and posterior probability of linkage. PMID:20664208

Long-term morbidity, mortality, and economics of rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Wong, J B; Ramey, D R; Singh, G

2001-12-01

To estimate the morbidity, mortality, and lifetime costs of care for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We developed a Markov model based on the Arthritis, Rheumatism, and Aging Medical Information System Post-Marketing Surveillance Program cohort, involving 4,258 consecutively enrolled RA patients who were followed up for 17,085 patient-years. Markov states of health were based on drug treatment and Health Assessment Questionnaire scores. Costs were based on resource utilization, and utilities were based on visual analog scale-based general health scores. The cohort had a mean age of 57 years, 76.4% were women, and the mean duration of disease was 11.8 years. Compared with a life expectancy of 22.0 years for the general population, this cohort had a life expectancy of 18.6 years and 11.3 quality-adjusted life years. Lifetime direct medical care costs were estimated to be $93,296. Higher costs were associated with higher disability scores. A Markov model can be used to estimate lifelong morbidity, mortality, and costs associated with RA, providing a context in which to consider the potential value of new therapies for the disease.

Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2018-02-01

Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. We compare the derivations of the EUT- and ERG-based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: "treat none," "treat all," or "use model" to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account

PubMed Central

Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios

2016-01-01

Abstract Rationale, aims, and objectives Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. Methods We compare the derivations of the EUT‐ and ERG‐based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: “treat none,” “treat all,” or “use model” to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Results Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. Conclusion EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. PMID:27981695

A new technique for measuring gas conversion factors for hydrocarbon mass flowmeters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, J. J.; Sprinkle, D. R.

1983-01-01

A technique for measuring calibration conversion factors for hydrocarbon mass flowmeters was developed. It was applied to a widely used type of commercial thermal mass flowmeter for hydrocarbon gases. The values of conversion factors for two common hydrocarbons measured using this technique are in good agreement with the empirical values cited by the manufacturer. Similar agreements can be expected for all other hydrocarbons. The technique is based on Nernst theorem for matching the partial pressure of oxygen in the combustion product gases with that in normal air. It is simple, quick and relatively safe--particularly for toxic/poisonous hydrocarbons.

NASA's Human Mission to a Near-Earth Asteroid: Landing on a Moving Target

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.; Lincoln, William P.; Weisbin, Charles R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending versus not sending one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The expected value of sample information based on productivity combined with parametric variations in the prior probability an asteroid might be found suitable for landing were used to assess the optimal number of spacecraft and asteroids to survey. The analysis supports the value of surveyor missions to asteroids and indicates one launch with two spacecraft going simultaneously to two independent asteroids appears optimal.

Does directly administered antiretroviral therapy represent good value for money in sub-Saharan Africa? A cost-utility and value of information analysis.

PubMed

Uthman, Rashidah T; Sutton, Andrew J; Jackson, Louise J; Uthman, Olalekan A

2018-01-01

Successful antiretroviral therapy (ART) relies on the optimal level of ART adherence to achieve reliable viral suppression, avert HIV drug resistance, and prevent avoidable deaths. It has been shown that there are various groups of people living with HIV at high-risk of non-adherence to ART in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to examine the cost effectiveness and value-of-information of directly administered antiretroviral therapy (DAART) versus self-administered ART among people living with HIV, at high risk of non-adherence to ART in sub-Saharan Africa. A Markov model was developed that describes the transition between HIV stages based on the CD4 count, along with direct costs, quality of life and the mortality rate associated with DAART in comparison with self-administered ART. Data used in the model were derived from the published literature. A health system perspective was employed using a life-time time horizon. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the impact of parameter uncertainty. Value of information analysis was also conducted. The expected cost of self-administered ART and DAART were $5,200 and $15,500 and the expected QALYs gained were 8.52 and 9.75 respectively, giving an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of $8,400 per QALY gained. The analysis demonstrated that the annual cost DAART needs to be priced below $200 per patient to be cost-effective. The probability that DAART was cost-effective was 1% for a willingness to pay threshold of $5,096 for sub-Saharan Africa. The value of information associated with the cost of DAART and its effectiveness was substantial. From the perspective of the health care payer in sub-Saharan Africa, DAART cannot be regarded as cost-effective based on current information. The value of information analysis showed that further research will be worthwhile and potentially cost-effective in resolving the uncertainty about whether or not to adopt DAART.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Development of an index to rank dairy females on expected lifetime profit.

PubMed

Kelleher, M M; Amer, P R; Shalloo, L; Evans, R D; Byrne, T J; Buckley, F; Berry, D P

2015-06-01

The objective of this study was to develop an index to rank dairy females on expected profit for the remainder of their lifetime, taking cognizance of both additive and nonadditive genetic merit, permanent environmental effects, and current states of the animal including the most recent calving date and cow parity. The cow own worth (COW) index is intended to be used for culling the expected least profitable females in a herd, as well as inform purchase and pricing decisions for trading of females. The framework of the COW index consisted of the profit accruing from (1) the current lactation, (2) future lactations, and (3) net replacement cost differential. The COW index was generated from estimated performance values (sum of additive genetic merit, nonadditive genetic merit, and permanent environmental effects) of traits, their respective net margin values, and transition probability matrices for month of calving, survival, and somatic cell count; the transition matrices were to account for predicted change in a cow's state in the future. Transition matrices were generated from 3,156,109 lactation records from the Irish national database between the years 2010 and 2013. Phenotypic performance records for 162,981 cows in the year 2012 were used to validate the COW index. Genetic and permanent environmental effects (where applicable) were available for these cows from the 2011 national genetic evaluations and used to calculate the COW index and their national breeding index values (includes only additive genetic effects). Cows were stratified per quartile within herd, based on their COW index value and national breeding index value. The correlation between individual animal COW index value and national breeding index value was 0.65. Month of calving of the cow in her current lactation explained 18% of the variation in the COW index, with the parity of the cow explaining an additional 3 percentage units of the variance in the COW index. Females ranking higher on the COW index yielded more milk and milk solids and calved earlier in the calving season than their lower ranking contemporaries. The difference in phenotypic performance between the best and worst quartiles was larger for cows ranked on COW index than cows ranked on the national breeding index. The COW index is useful to rank females before culling or purchasing decisions on expected profit and is complementary to the national breeding index, which identifies the most suitable females for breeding replacements. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parameter estimation of multivariate multiple regression model using bayesian with non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputro, D. R. S.; Amalia, F.; Widyaningsih, P.; Affan, R. C.

2018-05-01

Bayesian method is a method that can be used to estimate the parameters of multivariate multiple regression model. Bayesian method has two distributions, there are prior and posterior distributions. Posterior distribution is influenced by the selection of prior distribution. Jeffreys’ prior distribution is a kind of Non-informative prior distribution. This prior is used when the information about parameter not available. Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution is combined with the sample information resulting the posterior distribution. Posterior distribution is used to estimate the parameter. The purposes of this research is to estimate the parameters of multivariate regression model using Bayesian method with Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution. Based on the results and discussion, parameter estimation of β and Σ which were obtained from expected value of random variable of marginal posterior distribution function. The marginal posterior distributions for β and Σ are multivariate normal and inverse Wishart. However, in calculation of the expected value involving integral of a function which difficult to determine the value. Therefore, approach is needed by generating of random samples according to the posterior distribution characteristics of each parameter using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling algorithm.

Extended space expectation values in quantum dynamical system evolutions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demiralp, Metin

2014-10-06

The time variant power series expansion for the expectation value of a given quantum dynamical operator is well-known and well-investigated issue in quantum dynamics. However, depending on the operator and Hamiltonian singularities this expansion either may not exist or may not converge for all time instances except the beginning of the evolution. This work focuses on this issue and seeks certain cures for the negativities. We work in the extended space obtained by adding all images of the initial wave function under the system Hamiltonian’s positive integer powers. This requires the introduction of certain appropriately defined weight operators. The resultingmore » better convergence in the temporal power series urges us to call the new defined entities “extended space expectation values” even though they are constructed over certain weight operators and are somehow pseudo expectation values.« less

Mathematical modelling of risk reduction in reinsurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balashov, R. B.; Kryanev, A. V.; Sliva, D. E.

2017-01-01

The paper presents a mathematical model of efficient portfolio formation in the reinsurance markets. The presented approach provides the optimal ratio between the expected value of return and the risk of yield values below a certain level. The uncertainty in the return values is conditioned by use of expert evaluations and preliminary calculations, which result in expected return values and the corresponding risk levels. The proposed method allows for implementation of computationally simple schemes and algorithms for numerical calculation of the numerical structure of the efficient portfolios of reinsurance contracts of a given insurance company.

2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-23

Decision Analysis Model Bret N. Witham Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Benefits and Compensation Commons...FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED...Science in Operations Research Bret N. Witham, BS Captain, USAF March 2017 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION

Paying for Business School: Fewer Hesitations, Greater Investment from Parents, Value Remains Strong. GMAC® Data-to-Go Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briggs, Tracey

2014-01-01

This latest report looks at differences in how prospective students expect to cover the costs of business school. The brief is based on five-year data (2009 and 2013) from the mba.com Prospective Students Survey, specifically analyzing changes in the financing mix to meet 100 percent of the costs of graduate management education. The financing mix…

Living excellence: life after Magnet designation.

PubMed

Malloch, Kathy

2009-01-01

The achievement of Magnet recognition is the beginning of a new way of being as an organization. Strategies to support innovation leadership, value-based decision making, agility, sustainability of excellence, technology advancements, and lifelong learning are discussed within the framework of the Magnet organization. Behaviors and challenges of living the expectations of the Magnet organization are presented as opportunities to assist healthcare leaders in this important work.

Decision Making Analysis: Critical Factors-Based Methodology

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders

Economic Development Planning for Single Parents. Curriculum Materials for Vocational Teachers of Adolescents and Single Parents. Special Emphasis on Meeting the Needs of the Teen Parent.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Kawanna J.; And Others

This guide is intended for use in school-based intervention programs intended to help single parents (particularly teenagers who are expecting or already have a child) master basic money management and consumer skills. The guide is divided into sections dealing with the following topics: interpersonal relationships, value clarification,…

Character Building or Subversive Consequences of Employment during High School: Causal Effects Based on Propensity Score Models for Categorical Treatments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagengast, Benjamin; Marsh, Herbert W.; Chiorri, Carlo; Hau, Kit-Tai

2014-01-01

The present study revisited the unresolved issue of the long-term effects of part-time working intensity during high school on students' achievement, participation in postsecondary education, time allocation, and work-related values and expectations. Using data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (N = 14,654), the effects of part-time…

A cross-cultural perspective of parental influence on female adolescents' achievement beliefs and behaviors in sport and school domains.

PubMed

Bhalla, Jennifer A; Weiss, Maureen R

2010-12-01

Little is known about parental socialization processes for youth participants from different cultural backgrounds. The purpose of this study was to examine parental influence on self-perceptions, task values, and achievement behaviors among female adolescents from two cultures using Eccles' expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Twelve Anglo Canadian and nine East Indian female adolescents were interviewed about perceptions of parental influence on expectancy-value constructs for sport and academic domains. Inductive and deductive content analyses were performed to identify lower and higher order themes from interview responses. Similarities and differences in perceived parental influence emerged for girls of both cultural groups and in both domains. Our findings support links among expectancy-value constructs and highlight cultural variations in parental socialization of achievement cognitions and behaviors in multiple domains.

Fluctuations in the inflationary universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawking, S. W.; Moss, I. G.

1983-08-01

In the usual treatment of the inflationary universe, it is assumed that the expectation value of some component of the Higgs field develops a non-zero symmetry breaking value Φ0. However, in the models normally considered, the expectation value of Φ will be zero at all times because Φ and -Φ are equally probable. To overcome this difficulty, we calculate the effective action as a function of <Φ2> rather than <Φ>. This also solves the infra-red problem associated with a Coleman-Weinberg condition in de Sitter space. The expectation value of Φ2 grows linearly with time at first and then as (t2 - t-1). The irregularities in the resulting universe are smaller than those predicted by previous authors, though in the case of the standard SU(5) GUT they are still bigger than the limit set by the microwave background.

How wide is the gap in defining quality care? Comparison of patient and nurse perceptions of important aspects of patient care.

PubMed

Young, W B; Minnick, A F; Marcantonio, R

1996-05-01

The authors determine the importance that patients, nurses, and nurse managers place on aspects of care and measure nurses' care values based on their perceptions of their patients and nurse manager care values and their desire to meet these care expectations. The literature has documented gaps in how nurses and patients define quality and value specific care aspects, but little is known about the situation in the current continuous quality improvement and patient-centered care environment, which emphasizes a customer focus. Misunderstanding patients' values and expectations may impede service improvement. Information about any existing gaps could help managers begin to devise patient satisfaction improvement strategies. Two thousand fifty-one medical-surgical patients, 1264 staff members, and 97 nurse managers from 17 randomly selected hospitals participated in study activities related to selected aspects of patient care. Trained interviewers surveyed patients by telephone within 26 days of discharge using a pretested instrument. Staff members and managers completed a coordinated written tool. Descriptive and correlational statistics were used in individual and unit-level analyses. Staff members perceive correctly that patients value differently various aspects of care but do not agree with their managers on patients' value of aspects of care. Unit staff members' and managers' beliefs regarding patients' care values did not match those of their patients (-14 to 0.11 and -0.01 to 0.06 zero order correlations, respectively). A unit's errors in defining patients' values may be self-reinforcing. Strategies to reorient personnel, including adoption of those suggested by the diffusion of innovation literature, may help bridge the gap and change practice.

Value of electroneurography as a prognostic indicator for recovery in acute severe inflammatory facial paralysis: a prospective study of Bell's palsy and Ramsay Hunt syndrome.

PubMed

Byun, Hayoung; Cho, Yang-Sun; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Chung, Kyu Whan; Hwang, Soojin; Chung, Won-Ho; Hong, Sung Hwa

2013-10-01

To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of electroneuronography (ENoG) in acute severe inflammatory facial paralysis, including Bell's palsy and Ramsay Hunt syndrome (RHS). Prospective observational study. Patients with acute severe facial paralysis of House-Brackmann (H-B) grade IV or worse and diagnosed with Bell's palsy or RHS were enrolled from August 2007 to July 2011. After treatment with oral corticosteroid, antiviral agent, and protective eye care, patients were followed up until recovery or 12 months from onset. Sixty-six patients with Bell's palsy and 22 with RHS were included. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed significant effect of ENoG value on recovery in both Bell's palsy and RHS. Values of ENoG were significantly worse in RHS than Bell's palsy. Chance of early recovery within 6 weeks after correction of ENoG effect was still significantly worse in RHS. Logistic regression analysis showed 90% chance of recovery within 6 months, expected with ENoG values of 69.2% degeneration (Bell's palsy) and 59.3% (RHS). The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves showed ENoG values of 82.5% (Bell's palsy) and 78.0% (RHS) as a critical cutoff value of nonrecovery until 1 year, with the best sensitivity and specificity. A higher chance of recovery was expected with better ENoG in Bell's palsy and RHS. Based on our data, nonrecovery is predicted in patients with ENoG value greater than 82.5% in Bell's palsy, and 78% in RHS. 4. Copyright © 2013 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

[Consumer perspective and quality development in ambulatory nursing care].

PubMed

Wingenfeld, K; Schaeffer, D

2001-04-01

In the 1990s, the debate surrounding the issue of quality in outpatient nursing care was given a remarkable boost. Also the conviction steadily grew that quality assurance should be more adjusted to values and expectations of people in need of nursing care, the addressees of such services. But a critical analysis is required to determine to what extent the role of "customer" or "consumer", a role often ascribed to them in this context, can actually be reconciled with their possibilities, expectations and interests. Based on the results of empirical studies, the following article shows that the patient's view, his expectations and evaluations largely depend on some specific consequences of being in need of care and using outpatient nursing care. The article goes into the divergent perspectives that, on the one hand, are characteristic of patients and, on the other, of the nursing staff and other bodies concerned with quality of care.

Status, emotional displays, and the relationally-based evaluation of criminals and their behavior.

PubMed

Dilks, Lisa M; McGrimmon, Tucker S; Thye, Shane R

2015-03-01

This research uses status characteristics theory to expand our knowledge of the effects of status variables (e.g., race, education) and emotional displays on the antecedents of sentencing - evaluations of offender dangerousness and offense seriousness. We present a theoretical formulation that combines three areas of status characteristics research - reward expectations, individual evaluative settings and valued personal characteristics. The result is a quantitative measure that aggregates relative differences in demographic and emotional characteristics between offenders and their victims. The significance of this expectation advantage measure (e) in predicting evaluations of offender dangerousness and offense severity is tested using data from a vignette study. We find empirical support that expectation advantage significantly predicts these sentencing antecedents but not sentencing outcomes directly. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for future status and criminological research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Community detection in sequence similarity networks based on attribute clustering

DOE PAGES

Chowdhary, Janamejaya; Loeffler, Frank E.; Smith, Jeremy C.

2017-07-24

Networks are powerful tools for the presentation and analysis of interactions in multi-component systems. A commonly studied mesoscopic feature of networks is their community structure, which arises from grouping together similar nodes into one community and dissimilar nodes into separate communities. Here in this paper, the community structure of protein sequence similarity networks is determined with a new method: Attribute Clustering Dependent Communities (ACDC). Sequence similarity has hitherto typically been quantified by the alignment score or its expectation value. However, pair alignments with the same score or expectation value cannot thus be differentiated. To overcome this deficiency, the method constructs,more » for pair alignments, an extended alignment metric, the link attribute vector, which includes the score and other alignment characteristics. Rescaling components of the attribute vectors qualitatively identifies a systematic variation of sequence similarity within protein superfamilies. The problem of community detection is then mapped to clustering the link attribute vectors, selection of an optimal subset of links and community structure refinement based on the partition density of the network. ACDC-predicted communities are found to be in good agreement with gold standard sequence databases for which the "ground truth" community structures (or families) are known. ACDC is therefore a community detection method for sequence similarity networks based entirely on pair similarity information. A serial implementation of ACDC is available from https://cmb.ornl.gov/resources/developments« less

Community detection in sequence similarity networks based on attribute clustering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chowdhary, Janamejaya; Loeffler, Frank E.; Smith, Jeremy C.

Networks are powerful tools for the presentation and analysis of interactions in multi-component systems. A commonly studied mesoscopic feature of networks is their community structure, which arises from grouping together similar nodes into one community and dissimilar nodes into separate communities. Here in this paper, the community structure of protein sequence similarity networks is determined with a new method: Attribute Clustering Dependent Communities (ACDC). Sequence similarity has hitherto typically been quantified by the alignment score or its expectation value. However, pair alignments with the same score or expectation value cannot thus be differentiated. To overcome this deficiency, the method constructs,more » for pair alignments, an extended alignment metric, the link attribute vector, which includes the score and other alignment characteristics. Rescaling components of the attribute vectors qualitatively identifies a systematic variation of sequence similarity within protein superfamilies. The problem of community detection is then mapped to clustering the link attribute vectors, selection of an optimal subset of links and community structure refinement based on the partition density of the network. ACDC-predicted communities are found to be in good agreement with gold standard sequence databases for which the "ground truth" community structures (or families) are known. ACDC is therefore a community detection method for sequence similarity networks based entirely on pair similarity information. A serial implementation of ACDC is available from https://cmb.ornl.gov/resources/developments« less

Convergence analysis of evolutionary algorithms that are based on the paradigm of information geometry.

PubMed

Beyer, Hans-Georg

2014-01-01

The convergence behaviors of so-called natural evolution strategies (NES) and of the information-geometric optimization (IGO) approach are considered. After a review of the NES/IGO ideas, which are based on information geometry, the implications of this philosophy w.r.t. optimization dynamics are investigated considering the optimization performance on the class of positive quadratic objective functions (the ellipsoid model). Exact differential equations describing the approach to the optimizer are derived and solved. It is rigorously shown that the original NES philosophy optimizing the expected value of the objective functions leads to very slow (i.e., sublinear) convergence toward the optimizer. This is the real reason why state of the art implementations of IGO algorithms optimize the expected value of transformed objective functions, for example, by utility functions based on ranking. It is shown that these utility functions are localized fitness functions that change during the IGO flow. The governing differential equations describing this flow are derived. In the case of convergence, the solutions to these equations exhibit an exponentially fast approach to the optimizer (i.e., linear convergence order). Furthermore, it is proven that the IGO philosophy leads to an adaptation of the covariance matrix that equals in the asymptotic limit-up to a scalar factor-the inverse of the Hessian of the objective function considered.

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.

1989-01-01

The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

Motivations of Traditional and Nontraditional College Students: From Self-Determination and Attributions, to Expectancy and Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Marcus Lee; Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Clark, Lauren; Howell, Leah; Breen, Mishele

2016-01-01

We surveyed 139 (88 traditional, 51 nontraditional) students on various motivational measures of self-determination, attribution, and expectancy-value to (a) investigate motivational differences by student status and (b) identify the motivational variables that best predict academic achievement by student status. Results of a multivariate analysis…

Physical Activity and Fitness Knowledge Learning in Physical Education: Seeking a Common Ground

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Senlin; Chen, Ang; Sun, Haichun; Zhu, Xihe

2013-01-01

Motivation to learn is a disposition developed through exposure to learning opportunities. Guided by the expectancy-value theory of Eccles and Wigfield (1995), this study examined the extent to which expectancy belief and task value influenced elementary school students' physical activity and knowledge learning in physical education (PE).…

Values, Valences, and Course Enrollment: Testing the Role of Personal Values within an Expectancy-Valence Framework.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feather, N. T.

1988-01-01

The enrollment decisions of 444 (183 male, 260 female, and 1 unspecified) university students at Flinders University (South Australia) were investigated. Results shed light on gender differences in achievement patterns in mathematics and English and in relation to assumptions about relations between expectations and valences. (TJH)

Understanding Middle School Students' Motivation in Math Class: The Expectancy-Value Model Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurt, Eyup

2015-01-01

One of the most important variables affecting middle school students' mathematics performance is motivation. Motivation is closely related with expectancy belief regarding the task and value attached to the task. Identification of which one or ones of the factors constituting motivation is more closely related to mathematics performance may help…

Locus of Control and Academic Achievement: Integrating Social Learning Theory and Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Youse, Keith Edward

2012-01-01

The current study examines predictors of math achievement and college graduation by integrating social learning theory and expectancy-value theory. Data came from a nationally-representative longitudinal database tracking 12,144 students over twelve years from 8th grade forward. Models for math achievement and college graduation were tested…

Rural Adolescents' Reading Motivation, Achievement and Behavior across Transition to High School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cantrell, Susan Chambers; Rintamaa, Margaret; Anderman, Eric M.; Anderman, Lynley H.

2018-01-01

The authors examined 1,781 rural students' reading motivation and behavior across the transition from middle to high school. Using expectancy-value theory, they investigated how motivational variables predicted changes in reading behavior and achievement across the transition in terms of their expectancies, values, and out-of-school reading…

Social Influences, School Motivation and Gender Differences: An Application of the Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Weihua

2011-01-01

The present study examined the structural relations of social influences, task values, ability beliefs, educational expectation and academic engagement for both boys and girls. The structural equation modelling analyses provided nationally representative evidence of gender differences in: (1) the links from teacher-student relationship and peer…

Expected Values for Pedometer-Determined Physical Activity in Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tudor-Locke, Catrine; McClain, James J.; Hart, Teresa L.; Sisson, Susan B.; Washington, Tracy L.

2009-01-01

This review assembles pedometry literature focused on youth, with particular attention to expected values for habitual, school day, physical education class, recess, lunch break, out-of-school, weekend, and vacation activity. From 31 studies published since 1999, we constructed a youth habitual activity step-curve that indicates: (a) from ages 6…

Evaluating gambles using dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, O.; Gell-Mann, M.

2016-02-01

Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but their generality limits predictive power. Expectation value maximizers are defined as rational in economics, but expectation values are only meaningful in the presence of ensembles or in systems with ergodic properties, whereas decision-makers have no access to ensembles, and the variables representing wealth in the usual growth models do not have the relevant ergodic properties. Simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of utility and those of expectations, we propose to evaluate gambles by averaging wealth growth over time. No utility function is needed, but a dynamic must be specified to compute time averages. Linear and logarithmic "utility functions" appear as transformations that generate ergodic observables for purely additive and purely multiplicative dynamics, respectively. We highlight inconsistencies throughout the development of decision theory, whose correction clarifies that our perspective is legitimate. These invalidate a commonly cited argument for bounded utility functions.

Changes in Bird Functional Diversity across Multiple Land Uses: Interpretations of Functional Redundancy Depend on Functional Group Identity

PubMed Central

Luck, Gary W.; Carter, Andrew; Smallbone, Lisa

2013-01-01

Examinations of the impact of land-use change on functional diversity link changes in ecological community structure driven by land modification with the consequences for ecosystem function. Yet, most studies have been small-scale, experimental analyses and primarily focussed on plants. There is a lack of research on fauna communities and at large-scales across multiple land uses. We assessed changes in the functional diversity of bird communities across 24 land uses aligned along an intensification gradient. We tested the hypothesis that functional diversity is higher in less intensively used landscapes, documented changes in diversity using four diversity metrics, and examined how functional diversity varied with species richness to identify levels of functional redundancy. Functional diversity, measured using a dendogram-based metric, increased from high to low intensity land uses, but observed values did not differ significantly from randomly-generated expected values. Values for functional evenness and functional divergence did not vary consistently with land-use intensification, although higher than expected values were mostly recorded in high intensity land uses. A total of 16 land uses had lower than expected values for functional dispersion and these were mostly low intensity native vegetation sites. Relations between functional diversity and bird species richness yielded strikingly different patterns for the entire bird community vs. particular functional groups. For all birds and insectivores, functional evenness, divergence and dispersion showed a linear decline with increasing species richness suggesting substantial functional redundancy across communities. However, for nectarivores, frugivores and carnivores, there was a significant hump-shaped or non-significant positive linear relationship between these functional measures and species richness indicating less redundancy. Hump-shaped relationships signify that the most functionally diverse communities occur at intermediate levels of species richness. Interpretations of redundancy thus vary for different functional groups and related ecosystem functions (e.g. pollination), and can be substantially different to relationships involving entire ecological communities. PMID:23696844

Cluster-based analysis improves predictive validity of spike-triggered receptive field estimates

PubMed Central

Malone, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Spectrotemporal receptive field (STRF) characterization is a central goal of auditory physiology. STRFs are often approximated by the spike-triggered average (STA), which reflects the average stimulus preceding a spike. In many cases, the raw STA is subjected to a threshold defined by gain values expected by chance. However, such correction methods have not been universally adopted, and the consequences of specific gain-thresholding approaches have not been investigated systematically. Here, we evaluate two classes of statistical correction techniques, using the resulting STRF estimates to predict responses to a novel validation stimulus. The first, more traditional technique eliminated STRF pixels (time-frequency bins) with gain values expected by chance. This correction method yielded significant increases in prediction accuracy, including when the threshold setting was optimized for each unit. The second technique was a two-step thresholding procedure wherein clusters of contiguous pixels surviving an initial gain threshold were then subjected to a cluster mass threshold based on summed pixel values. This approach significantly improved upon even the best gain-thresholding techniques. Additional analyses suggested that allowing threshold settings to vary independently for excitatory and inhibitory subfields of the STRF resulted in only marginal additional gains, at best. In summary, augmenting reverse correlation techniques with principled statistical correction choices increased prediction accuracy by over 80% for multi-unit STRFs and by over 40% for single-unit STRFs, furthering the interpretational relevance of the recovered spectrotemporal filters for auditory systems analysis. PMID:28877194

The economic value of life: linking theory to practice.

PubMed Central

Landefeld, J S; Seskin, E P

1982-01-01

Human capital estimates of the economic value of life have been routinely used in the past to perform cost-benefit analyses of health programs. Recently, however, serious questions have been raised concerning the conceptual basis for valuing human life by applying these estimates. Most economists writing on these issues tend to agree that a more conceptually correct method to value risks to human life in cost-benefit analyses would be based on individuals.' "willingness to pay" for small changes in their probability of survival. Attempts to implement the willingness-to-pay approach using survey responses or revealed-preference estimates have produced a confusing array of values fraught with statistical problems and measurement difficulties. As a result, economists have searched for a link between willingness to pay and standard human capital estimates and have found that for most individuals a lower bound for valuing risks to life can be based on their willingness to pay to avoid the expected economic losses associated with death. However, while these studies provide support for using individual's private valuation of forgone income in valuing risks to life, it is also clear that standard human capital estimates cannot be used for this purpose without reformulation. After reviewing the major approaches to valuing risks to life, this paper concludes that estimates based on the human capital approach--reformulated using a willingness-to-pay criterion--produce the only clear, consistent, and objective values for use in cost-benefit analyses of policies affecting risks to life. The paper presents the first empirical estimates of such adjusted willingness-to-pay/human capital values. PMID:6803602

Values, attitudes and perceptions of managers as predictors of corporate environmental responsiveness.

PubMed

Papagiannakis, Giorgos; Lioukas, Spyros

2012-06-15

We examine whether managers' values, attitudes, and perceptions influence the greening of organizations. To that purpose, we specify and test a model of corporate environmental responsiveness (CER), drawing upon a modified version of the theory of planned behavior and the value-belief-norm theory. Based on survey data from 142 Greek companies, we find that top managers' personal values influence responses indirectly, through shaping their environmental attitudes, while direct relationship is not significant. Subjective norms, expressing stakeholder expectations, do affect CER, with their effect being stronger than that of attitudes. Managers' perceived ability to handle environmental issues also appears to influence responses. Results have theoretical implications, indicating the significant role of managers' values, attitudes and perceptions in a firm's environmental response. Practical implications are discussed in relation to selection of managers and training. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Opioid Modulation of Value-Based Decision-Making in Healthy Humans.

PubMed

Eikemo, Marie; Biele, Guido; Willoch, Frode; Thomsen, Lotte; Leknes, Siri

2017-08-01

Modifying behavior to maximize reward is integral to adaptive decision-making. In rodents, the μ-opioid receptor (MOR) system encodes motivation and preference for high-value rewards. Yet it remains unclear whether and how human MORs contribute to value-based decision-making. We reasoned that if the human MOR system modulates value-based choice, this would be reflected by opposite effects of agonist and antagonist drugs. In a double-blind pharmacological cross-over study, 30 healthy men received morphine (10 mg), placebo, and the opioid antagonist naltrexone (50 mg). They completed a two-alternative decision-making task known to induce a considerable bias towards the most frequently rewarded response option. To quantify MOR involvement in this bias, we fitted accuracy and reaction time data with the drift-diffusion model (DDM) of decision-making. The DDM analysis revealed the expected bidirectional drug effects for two decision subprocesses. MOR stimulation with morphine increased the preference for the stimulus with high-reward probability (shift in starting point). Compared to placebo, morphine also increased, and naltrexone reduced, the efficiency of evidence accumulation. Since neither drug affected motor-coordination, speed-accuracy trade-off, or subjective state (indeed participants were still blinded after the third session), we interpret the MOR effects on evidence accumulation efficiency as a consequence of changes in effort exerted in the task. Together, these findings support a role for the human MOR system in value-based choice by tuning decision-making towards high-value rewards across stimulus domains.

The psycho-social impact of malocclusions and treatment expectations of adolescent orthodontic patients.

PubMed

Twigge, Eugene; Roberts, Rachel M; Jamieson, Lisa; Dreyer, Craig W; Sampson, Wayne J

2016-12-01

To evaluate the short- and long-term orthodontic treatment (OT) expectations, malocclusion severity, and oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) status of adolescent patients using qualitative and quantitative methodology. Adolescents (n = 105; 42 males and 63 females) aged between 12 and 17 years participated in this interview and questionnaire-based study. The Psychosocial Impact of Dental Aesthetics Questionnaire (PIDAQ) and the Oral Impacts on Daily Performances (OIDP) scale evaluated OHRQoL status. Study casts were analysed using the Dental Aesthetics Index (DAI) and the Index of Complexity, Outcome and Need (ICON). Mann-Whitney test and Spearman's correlations tested various univariate variables. With similar index-determined OT need (DAI, P = 0.371 and ICON, P = 0.932) females tended to have worse OHRQoL status (PIDAQ scores, P-values ranged from 0.006 to 0.0001 and scores for the OIDP question related to smiling, laughing, and showing teeth without embarrassment, P-value = 0.015). Occlusal index scores did not have statistically significant associations with the OHRQoL scales. Better dental appearance was expected by 85 per cent of the adolescents in the short-term and by 51 per cent in the long-term after OT. The associated psycho-social expectations were: 1. improved dental self-confidence, 2. positive psychological impact/improved self-worth, and 3. positive social impact. Female adolescent patients tended to experience worse psycho-social impacts related to their malocclusions compared with males with similar index-determined OT need. Index-determined OT need scores did not correlate with the OHRQoL scales. Adolescent patients expected OT to improve their dental appearance and QoL aspects. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Orthodontic Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Human grooming in comparative perspective: People in six small-scale societies groom less but socialize just as much as expected for a typical primate.

PubMed

Jaeggi, Adrian V; Kramer, Karen L; Hames, Raymond; Kiely, Evan J; Gomes, Cristina; Kaplan, Hillard; Gurven, Michael

2017-04-01

Grooming has important utilitarian and social functions in primates but little is known about grooming and its functional analogues in traditional human societies. We compare human grooming to typical primate patterns to test its hygienic and social functions. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were used to derive expected human grooming time given the potential associations between grooming, group size, body size, terrestriality, and several climatic variables across 69 primate species. This was compared against observed times dedicated to grooming, other hygienic behavior, and conversation among the Maya, Pumé, Sanöma, Tsimane', Yanomamö, and Ye'kwana (mean number of behavioral scans = 23,514). Expected grooming time for humans was 4% (95% Credible Interval = 0.07%-14%), similar to values observed in primates, based largely on terrestriality and phylogenetic signal (mean λ = 0.56). No other covariates strongly associated with grooming across primates. Observed grooming time across societies was 0.8%, lower than 89% of the expected values. However, the observed times dedicated to any hygienic behavior (3.0%) or "vocal grooming," that is conversation (7.3%), fell within the expected range. We found (i) that human grooming may be a (recent) phylogenetic outlier when defined narrowly as parasite removal but not defined broadly as personal hygiene, (ii) there was no support for thermoregulatory functions of grooming, and (iii) no support for the "vocal grooming" hypothesis of language having evolved as a less time-consuming means of bonding. Thus, human grooming reflects decreased hygienic needs, but similar social needs compared to primate grooming. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Reward modulates attention independently of action value in posterior parietal cortex

PubMed Central

Peck, Christopher J.; Jangraw, David C.; Suzuki, Mototaka; Efem, Richard; Gottlieb, Jacqueline

2009-01-01

While numerous studies explored the mechanisms of reward-based decisions (the choice of action based on expected gain), few asked how reward influences attention (the selection of information relevant for a decision). Here we show that a powerful determinant of attentional priority is the association between a stimulus and an appetitive reward. A peripheral cue heralded the delivery of reward (RC+) or no reward (RC−); to experience the predicted outcome monkeys made a saccade to a target that appeared unpredictably at the same or opposite location relative to the cue. Although the RC had no operant associations (did not specify the required saccade) they automatically biased attention, such that the RC+ attracted attention and RC− repelled attention from their location. Neurons in the lateral intraparietal area (LIP) encoded these attentional biases, maintaining sustained excitation at the location of an RC+ and inhibition at the location of an RC−. Contrary to the hypothesis that LIP encodes action value, neurons did not encode the expected reward of the saccade. Moreover, the cue-evoked biases were maladaptive, interfering with the required saccade, and they biases increased rather than abating with training, strikingly at odds with an adaptive decision process. After prolonged training valence selectivity appeared at shorter latencies and automatically transferred to a novel task context, suggesting that training produced visual plasticity. The results suggest that reward predictors gain automatic attentional priority regardless of their operant associations, and this valence-specific priority is encoded in LIP independently of the expected reward of an action. PMID:19741125

A feasibility study for the detection of upper atmospheric winds using a ground based laser Doppler velocimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomson, J. A. L.; Meng, J. C. S.

1975-01-01

A possible measurement program designed to obtain the information requisite to determining the feasibility of airborne and/or satellite-borne LDV (Laser Doppler Velocimeter) systems is discussed. Measurements made from the ground are favored over an airborne measurement as far as for the purpose of determining feasibility is concerned. The expected signal strengths for scattering at various altitude and elevation angles are examined; it appears that both molecular absorption and ambient turbulence degrade the signal at low elevation angles and effectively constrain the ground based measurement of elevation angles exceeding a critical value. The nature of the wind shear and turbulence to be expected are treated from a linear hydrodynamic model - a mountain lee wave model. The spatial and temporal correlation distances establish requirements on the range resolution, the maximum detectable range and the allowable integration time.

Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epple, D.; Hansen, L.P.

1981-12-01

An econometric model of US oil and natural gas discoveries is developed in this study. The econometric model is explicitly derived as the solution to the problem of maximizing the expected discounted after tax present value of revenues net of exploration, development, and production costs. The model contains equations representing producers' formation of price expectations and separate equations giving producers' optimal exploration decisions contingent on expected prices. A procedure is developed for imposing resource base constraints (e.g., ultimate recovery estimates based on geological analysis) when estimating the econometric model. The model is estimated using aggregate post-war data for the Unitedmore » States. Production from a given addition to proved reserves is assumed to follow a negative exponential path, and additions of proved reserves from a given discovery are assumed to follow a negative exponential path. Annual discoveries of oil and natural gas are estimated as latent variables. These latent variables are the endogenous variables in the econometric model of oil and natural gas discoveries. The model is estimated without resource base constraints. The model is also estimated imposing the mean oil and natural gas ultimate recovery estimates of the US Geological Survey. Simulations through the year 2020 are reported for various future price regimes.« less

Quantifying biological integrity by taxonomic completeness: its utility in regional and global assessments.

PubMed

Hawkins, Charles P

2006-08-01

Water resources managers and conservation biologists need reliable, quantitative, and directly comparable methods for assessing the biological integrity of the world's aquatic ecosystems. Large-scale assessments are constrained by the lack of consistency in the indicators used to assess biological integrity and our current inability to translate between indicators. In theory, assessments based on estimates of taxonomic completeness, i.e., the proportion of expected taxa that were observed (observed/expected, O/E) are directly comparable to one another and should therefore allow regionally and globally consistent summaries of the biological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. However, we know little about the true comparability of O/E assessments derived from different data sets or how well O/E assessments perform relative to other indicators in use. I compared the performance (precision, bias, and sensitivity to stressors) of O/E assessments based on five different data sets with the performance of the indicators previously applied to these data (three multimetric indices, a biotic index, and a hybrid method used by the state of Maine). Analyses were based on data collected from U.S. stream ecosystems in North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic Highlands, Maine, and Ohio. O/E assessments resulted in very similar estimates of mean regional conditions compared with most other indicators once these indicators' values were standardized relative to reference-site means. However, other indicators tended to be biased estimators of O/E, a consequence of differences in their response to natural environmental gradients and sensitivity to stressors. These results imply that, in some cases, it may be possible to compare assessments derived from different indicators by standardizing their values (a statistical approach to data harmonization). In situations where it is difficult to standardize or otherwise harmonize two or more indicators, O/E values can easily be derived from existing raw sample data. With some caveats, O/E should provide more directly comparable assessments of biological integrity across regions than is possible by harmonizing values of a mix of indicators.

Maternal expectations about normal child development in 4 cultural groups.

PubMed

Pachter, L M; Dworkin, P H

1997-11-01

To determine whether expectations about normal infant and child development are different among mothers from 4 ethnocultural groups. Two hundred fifty-five mothers (90 Puerto Rican, 59 African American, 69 European American, 37 West Indian-Caribbean) whose children received health care at hospital-based pediatric clinics and private pediatricians' and family practitioners' offices. Verbally administered questionnaire that included 25 questions in which mothers were asked to give their opinions about the age at which a normal child should begin to accomplish standard developmental milestones. Responses (mean ages at which mothers expected children to attain the milestones) from each group were compared after controlling for age of mother, number of children, level of education, and socioeconomic status. Significant differences among ethnic groups' responses were seen for 9 of 25 developmental milestones. Differences were mainly seen among personal and social milestones, and Puerto Rican mothers tended to expect children to attain these milestones at a later age than did other mothers. No differences in responses were seen between Spanish- and English-speaking Puerto Rican mothers. European-American mothers expected children to take first steps and become toilet trained at a later age. Developmental expectations differ among mothers from different ethnocultural groups. Many of these differences can be explained by underlying cultural beliefs and values and specific child-rearing practices. Clinicians should ask about maternal expectations during child health visits to interpret mothers' concerns and opinions about their children's development.

Sampling ARG of multiple populations under complex configurations of subdivision and admixture.

PubMed

Carrieri, Anna Paola; Utro, Filippo; Parida, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Simulating complex evolution scenarios of multiple populations is an important task for answering many basic questions relating to population genomics. Apart from the population samples, the underlying Ancestral Recombinations Graph (ARG) is an additional important means in hypothesis checking and reconstruction studies. Furthermore, complex simulations require a plethora of interdependent parameters making even the scenario-specification highly non-trivial. We present an algorithm SimRA that simulates generic multiple population evolution model with admixture. It is based on random graphs that improve dramatically in time and space requirements of the classical algorithm of single populations.Using the underlying random graphs model, we also derive closed forms of expected values of the ARG characteristics i.e., height of the graph, number of recombinations, number of mutations and population diversity in terms of its defining parameters. This is crucial in aiding the user to specify meaningful parameters for the complex scenario simulations, not through trial-and-error based on raw compute power but intelligent parameter estimation. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time closed form expressions have been computed for the ARG properties. We show that the expected values closely match the empirical values through simulations.Finally, we demonstrate that SimRA produces the ARG in compact forms without compromising any accuracy. We demonstrate the compactness and accuracy through extensive experiments. SimRA (Simulation based on Random graph Algorithms) source, executable, user manual and sample input-output sets are available for downloading at: https://github.com/ComputationalGenomics/SimRA CONTACT: : parida@us.ibm.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimation of within-stratum variance for sample allocation: Foreign commodity production forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chhikara, R. S.; Perry, C. R., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The problem of determining the stratum variances required for an optimum sample allocation for remotely sensed crop surveys is investigated with emphasis on an approach based on the concept of stratum variance as a function of the sampling unit size. A methodology using the existing and easily available information of historical statistics is developed for obtaining initial estimates of stratum variances. The procedure is applied to variance for wheat in the U.S. Great Plains and is evaluated based on the numerical results obtained. It is shown that the proposed technique is viable and performs satisfactorily with the use of a conservative value (smaller than the expected value) for the field size and with the use of crop statistics from the small political division level.

Big Numbers about Small Children: Estimating the Economic Benefits of Addressing Undernutrition.

PubMed

Alderman, Harold; Behrman, Jere R; Puett, Chloe

2017-02-01

Different approaches have been used to estimate the economic benefits of reducing undernutrition and to estimate the costs of investing in such programs on a global scale. While many of these studies are ultimately based on evidence from well-designed efficacy trials, all require a number of assumptions to project the impact of such trials to larger populations and to translate the value of the expected improvement in nutritional status into economic terms. This paper provides a short critique of some approaches to estimating the benefits of investments in child nutrition and then presents an alternative set of estimates based on different core data. These new estimates reinforce the basic conclusions of the existing literature: the economic value from reducing undernutrition in undernourished populations is likely to be substantial.

Smart Manufacturing.

PubMed

Davis, Jim; Edgar, Thomas; Graybill, Robert; Korambath, Prakashan; Schott, Brian; Swink, Denise; Wang, Jianwu; Wetzel, Jim

2015-01-01

Historic manufacturing enterprises based on vertically optimized companies, practices, market share, and competitiveness are giving way to enterprises that are responsive across an entire value chain to demand dynamic markets and customized product value adds; increased expectations for environmental sustainability, reduced energy usage, and zero incidents; and faster technology and product adoption. Agile innovation and manufacturing combined with radically increased productivity become engines for competitiveness and reinvestment, not simply for decreased cost. A focus on agility, productivity, energy, and environmental sustainability produces opportunities that are far beyond reducing market volatility. Agility directly impacts innovation, time-to-market, and faster, broader exploration of the trade space. These changes, the forces driving them, and new network-based information technologies offering unprecedented insights and analysis are motivating the advent of smart manufacturing and new information technology infrastructure for manufacturing.

Reuse of imputed data in microarray analysis increases imputation efficiency

PubMed Central

Kim, Ki-Yeol; Kim, Byoung-Jin; Yi, Gwan-Su

2004-01-01

Background The imputation of missing values is necessary for the efficient use of DNA microarray data, because many clustering algorithms and some statistical analysis require a complete data set. A few imputation methods for DNA microarray data have been introduced, but the efficiency of the methods was low and the validity of imputed values in these methods had not been fully checked. Results We developed a new cluster-based imputation method called sequential K-nearest neighbor (SKNN) method. This imputes the missing values sequentially from the gene having least missing values, and uses the imputed values for the later imputation. Although it uses the imputed values, the efficiency of this new method is greatly improved in its accuracy and computational complexity over the conventional KNN-based method and other methods based on maximum likelihood estimation. The performance of SKNN was in particular higher than other imputation methods for the data with high missing rates and large number of experiments. Application of Expectation Maximization (EM) to the SKNN method improved the accuracy, but increased computational time proportional to the number of iterations. The Multiple Imputation (MI) method, which is well known but not applied previously to microarray data, showed a similarly high accuracy as the SKNN method, with slightly higher dependency on the types of data sets. Conclusions Sequential reuse of imputed data in KNN-based imputation greatly increases the efficiency of imputation. The SKNN method should be practically useful to save the data of some microarray experiments which have high amounts of missing entries. The SKNN method generates reliable imputed values which can be used for further cluster-based analysis of microarray data. PMID:15504240

Improvements in soft gelatin capsule sample preparation for USP-based simethicone FTIR analysis.

PubMed

Hargis, Amy D; Whittall, Linda B

2013-02-23

Due to the absence of a significant chromophore, Simethicone raw material and finished product analysis is achieved using a FTIR-based method that quantifies the polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) component of the active ingredient. The method can be found in the USP monographs for several dosage forms of Simethicone-containing pharmaceutical products. For soft gelatin capsules, the PDMS assay values determined using the procedure described in the USP method were variable (%RSDs from 2 to 9%) and often lower than expected based on raw material values. After investigation, it was determined that the extraction procedure used for sample preparation was causing loss of material to the container walls due to the hydrophobic nature of PDMS. Evaluation revealed that a simple dissolution of the gelatin capsule fill in toluene provided improved assay results (%RSDs≤0.5%) as well as a simplified and rapid sample preparation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Successful affiliations: principles and practices.

PubMed

Rice, Ann Madden

2011-01-01

An affiliation can help a healthcare provider prepare for the challenges of healthcare reform, the rapidly changing landscapes of the commercial insurance industry, and the public's expectations about service and quality. UC Davis Medical Center, a 645-bed tertiary hospital in Sacramento, California, with many hospital-based clinics and a community-based group of primary care clinics, has developed a number of principles for affiliation. These principles are based on its experience in legal and financial affiliations with an academic practice group, with individual and small groups of primary care physicians, and with community hospitals around oncology services linked with U.C. Davis' National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center. This article offers a process for evaluating the appropriateness of an affiliation. The chances for a successful affiliation improve if each party has indicated the value it hopes to derive and how to measure that value, has communicated with all affected constituents, and has an agreed-upon method for resolving disputes.

A preliminary path analysis of expectancy and patient-provider encounter in an open-label randomized controlled trial of spinal manipulation for cervicogenic headache.

PubMed

Haas, Mitchell; Aickin, Mikel; Vavrek, Darcy

2010-01-01

The purpose of this article was to present a preliminary model to identify the effects of expectancy of treatment success and the patient-provider encounter (PPE) on outcomes in an open-label randomized trial. Eighty participants with chronic cervicogenic headache (CGH) were randomized to 4 groups: 2 levels of treatment dose (8 or 16) and 2 levels of therapy from a chiropractor (spinal manipulation or light massage). Providers were instructed to have equal enthusiasm for all care. Structural equation modeling with standardized path coefficients (beta) was used in a path analysis to identify the effects of patient expectancy and the PPE on CGH pain. The model included monthly pain from baseline to 12 weeks. Expectancy and PPE were evaluated on Likert scales. The patient-provider encounter was measured as patient perception of chiropractor enthusiasm, confidence, and comfort with care. Baseline patient expectancy was balanced across groups. The PPE measures were balanced across groups and consistent over the 8-week treatment period. Treatment and baseline pain had the strongest effects on pain outcomes (|beta| = .46-.59). Expectations had little effect on pain (abs value(beta) < .15). The patient-provider encounter had a weak effect on pain (abs value(beta)= .03-.27) and on subsequent confidence in treatment success (abs value(beta)= .09 and .12). Encouraging equipoise in the PPE and balancing expectancy across treatment groups may protect against some confounding related to the absence of blinding in a randomized controlled trial of pain. In this trial, their effects were found to be small relative to the effects of treatment and baseline values. Copyright 2010 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Supporting Worth Mapping with Sentence Completion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockton, Gilbert; Kujala, Sari; Nurkka, Piia; Hölttä, Taneli

Expectations for design and evaluation approaches are set by the development practices within which they are used. Worth-Centred Development (WCD) seeks to both shape and fit such practices. We report a study that combined two WCD approaches. Sentence completion gathered credible quantitative data on user values, which were used to identify relevant values and aversions of two player groups for an on-line gambling site. These values provided human value elements for a complementary WCD approach of worth mapping. Initial worth maps were extended in three workshops, which focused on outcomes and user experiences that could be better addressed in the current product and associated marketing materials. We describe how worth maps were prepared for, and presented in, workshops, and how product owners and associated business roles evaluated the combination of WCD approaches. Based on our experiences, we offer practical advice on this combinination.