The Long-Term Effects of Early Parent Involvement and Parent Expectation in the USA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froiland, John Mark; Peterson, Aubrey; Davison, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Building on social-cognitive theory and the expectancy-value theory, this study indicated that early parent expectations for children’s post-secondary educational attainment have a stronger effect on 8th-grade achievement than home-based parental involvement. With a nationally representative sample of kindergarten students and their parents in the…

Predicting who will major in a science discipline: Expectancy-value theory as part of an ecological model for studying academic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullins, Ellen S.; Hernandez, Delia; Fuller, Carol; Shiro Tashiro, Jay

Research on factors that shape recruitment and retention in undergraduate science majors currently is highly fragmented and in need of an integrative research framework. Such a framework should incorporate analyses of the various levels of organization that characterize academic communities (i.e., the broad institutional level, the departmental level, and the student level), and should also provide ways to study the interactions occurring within and between these structural levels. We propose that academic communities are analogous to ecosystems, and that the research paradigms of modern community ecology can provide the necessary framework, as well as new and innovative approaches to a very complex area. This article also presents the results of a pilot study that demonstrates the promise of this approach at the student level. We administered a questionnaire based on expectancy-value theory to undergraduates enrolled in introductory biology courses. Itself an integrative approach, expectancy-value theory views achievement-related behavior as a joint function of the person's expectancy of success in the behavior and the subjective value placed on such success. Our results indicated: (a) significant gender differences in the underlying factor structures of expectations and values related to the discipline of biology, (b) expectancy-value factors significantly distinguished biology majors from nonmajors, and (c) expectancy-value factors significantly predicted students' intent to enroll in future biology courses. We explore the expectancy-value framework as an operationally integrative framework in our ecological model for studying academic communities, especially in the context of assessing the underrepresentation of women and minorities in the sciences. Future research directions as well as practical implications are also discussed.

A statistical study of merging galaxies: Theory and observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterjee, Tapan K.

1990-01-01

A study of the expected frequency of merging galaxies is conducted, using the impulsive approximation. Results indicate that if we consider mergers involving galaxy pairs without halos in a single crossing time or orbital period, the expected frequency of mergers is two orders of magnitude below the observed value for the present epoch. If we consider mergers involving several orbital periods or crossing times, the expected frequency goes up by an order of magnitude. Preliminary calculation indicate that if we consider galaxy mergers between pairs with massive halos, the merger is very much hastened.

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah@Rozita

2014-06-01

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stable information ratio.

Selecting Value-Added Models for Postsecondary Institutional Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steedle, Jeffrey T.

2012-01-01

Value-added scores from tests of college learning indicate how score gains compare to those expected from students of similar entering academic ability. Unfortunately, the choice of value-added model can impact results, and this makes it difficult to determine which results to trust. The research presented here demonstrates how value-added models…

Math-related career aspirations and choices within Eccles et al.'s expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors.

PubMed

Lauermann, Fani; Tsai, Yi-Miau; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

2017-08-01

Which occupation to pursue is one of the more consequential decisions people make and represents a key developmental task. Yet the underlying developmental processes associated with either individual or group differences in occupational choices are still not well understood. This study contributes toward filling this gap, focusing in particular on the math domain. We examined two aspects of Eccles et al.'s (1983) expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors: (a) the reciprocal associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs and adolescents' career plans and (b) the multiplicative association between expectancies and values in predicting occupational outcomes in the math domain. Our analyses indicate that adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math and their math- or science-related career plans reported at the beginning and end of high school predict each other over time, with the exception of intrinsic interest in math. Furthermore, multiplicative associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math predict math-related career attainment approximately 15 years after graduation from high school. Gender differences emerged regarding career-related beliefs and career attainment, with male students being more likely than female to both pursue and attain math-related careers. These gender differences could not be explained by differences in beliefs about math as an academic subject. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Value-of-information analysis within a stakeholder-driven research prioritization process in a US setting: an application in cancer genomics.

PubMed

Carlson, Josh J; Thariani, Rahber; Roth, Josh; Gralow, Julie; Henry, N Lynn; Esmail, Laura; Deverka, Pat; Ramsey, Scott D; Baker, Laurence; Veenstra, David L

2013-05-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and outcomes of incorporating value-of-information (VOI) analysis into a stakeholder-driven research prioritization process in a US-based setting. . Within a program to prioritize comparative effectiveness research areas in cancer genomics, over a period of 7 months, we developed decision-analytic models and calculated upper-bound VOI estimates for 3 previously selected genomic tests. Thirteen stakeholders representing patient advocates, payers, test developers, regulators, policy makers, and community-based oncologists ranked the tests before and after receiving VOI results. The stakeholders were surveyed about the usefulness and impact of the VOI findings. The estimated upper-bound VOI ranged from $33 million to $2.8 billion for the 3 research areas. Seven stakeholders indicated the results modified their rankings, 9 stated VOI data were useful, and all indicated they would support its use in future prioritization processes. Some stakeholders indicated expected value of sampled information might be the preferred choice when evaluating specific Limitations. Our study was limited by the size and the potential for selection bias in the composition of the external stakeholder group, lack of a randomized design to assess effect of VOI data on rankings, and the use of expected value of perfect information v. expected value of sample information methods. Value of information analyses may have a meaningful role in research topic prioritization for comparative effectiveness research in the United States, particularly when large differences in VOI across topic areas are identified. Additional research is needed to facilitate the use of more complex value of information analyses in this setting.

Matches and mismatches between conservation investments and biodiversity values in the European Union.

PubMed

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Abellán, Pedro; Aragón, Pedro; Varela, Sara; Cabeza, Mar

2018-02-01

Recently, the European Commission adopted a new strategy to halt the loss of biodiversity. Member states are expected to favor a more effective collection and redistribution of European Union (EU) funds under the current Multiannual Financial Framework for 2014-2020. Because of the large spatial variation in the distribution of biodiversity and conservation needs at the continental scale, EU instruments should ensure that countries with higher biodiversity values get more funds and resources for the conservation than other countries. Using linear regressions, we assessed the association between conservation investments and biodiversity values across member states, accounting for a variety of conservation investment indicators, taxonomic groups (including groups of plants, vertebrates, and invertebrates), and indicators of biodiversity value. In general, we found clear overall associations between conservation investments and biodiversity variables. However, some countries received more or less investment than would be expected based on biodiversity values in those countries. We also found that the extensive use of birds as unique indicators of conservation effectiveness may lead to biased decisions. Our results can inform future decisions regarding funding allocation and thus improve distribution of EU conservation funds. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Culturally Responsive Positive Behavior Supports: Considerations for Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banks, Tachelle; Obiakor, Festus E.

2015-01-01

Classrooms are not culturally neutral terrains, but rather are constructed around sets of norms, values, and expected behaviors that are culturally bound. Low tolerance levels and expectations are an indication of the incongruence between the education strategies utilized by teachers and the cultural and linguistic differences of students that are…

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah Rozita

2014-06-19

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stablemore » information ratio.« less

Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs

PubMed Central

Doménech-Betoret, Fernando; Abellán-Roselló, Laura; Gómez-Artiga, Amparo

2017-01-01

Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy–achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy) played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy–achievement and efficacy–course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed. PMID:28769839

Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs.

PubMed

Doménech-Betoret, Fernando; Abellán-Roselló, Laura; Gómez-Artiga, Amparo

2017-01-01

Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy-achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy) played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy-achievement and efficacy-course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed.

Children's motivation in elementary physical education: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin

2004-03-01

The present study examined relationships among variables drawn from achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice as well as mean level changes of these variables over time in elementary physical education. Participants (N = 207) completed questionnaires over a 2-year period: once while in the second and fourth grades and again when they were in the third and fifth grades. Results indicated that achievement goals, expectancy-related beliefs, and subjective task values were related to one another and were predictive of children's intention for future participation in physical education. Children's subjective task values of physical education decreased over time. Children in Cohort 1 (across second to third grades) generally had stronger motivation for learning in physical education than children in Cohort 2 (across fourth to fifth grades). Findings suggest the importance of integrating achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice in understanding student motivation.

Understanding unemployed people's job search behaviour, unemployment experience and well-being: a comparison of expectancy-value theory and self-determination theory.

PubMed

Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Lens, Willy; De Witte, Hans; Feather, N T

2005-06-01

Previous unemployment research has directly tested hypotheses derived from expectancy-value theory (EVT; Feather, 1982, 1990), but no comparative analysis has been executed with another motivational framework. In one large study with 446 unemployed people, separate analyses provided good evidence for predictions derived from both EVT and self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000). Comparative analyses indicated that the type of people's job search motivation, as conceptualized through the notions of autonomous versus controlled motivation within SDT, is an important predictor of people's unemployment experience and wellbeing, beyond people's strength of motivation assessed within EVT through expectancies of finding a job and employment value. The importance of simultaneously testing two theoretical frameworks is discussed.

Socioeconomic factors and mortality in urban settings: the case of Barcelona, Spain.

PubMed Central

Borrell, C; Arias, A

1995-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE--This study aimed to describe the relationship between health and socioeconomic indicators in the 38 neighbourhoods of the city of Barcelona, Spain. DESIGN--Mortality data for 1983-89 and socioeconomic data for each of the 38 neighbourhoods of Barcelona were used. Mortality indicators used were the comparative mortality figure, the ratio of potential years of life lost, and life expectancy at birth. Socioeconomic indicators were the percentage of unemployed, the percentage of illiteracy, monthly telephone usage, the average power and age of cars, and the average rateable value of buildings and of land. The statistical correlation between socioeconomic indicators and mortality indicators was studied by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. SETTING--The 38 neighbourhoods of Barcelona, Spain. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--The comparative mortality figure ranged from 87.41-152.43 and the ratio of potential years of life lost from 74.94-237.31 in both sexes. Both the absolute difference and the ratio of the value for the neighbourhood with lowest mortality and that with highest mortality were larger when premature mortality was examined. Life expectancy at birth ranged from 64.77-75.32 years in men and 75.04-81.51 in women. All correlations between mortality and socioeconomic indicators were high and statistically significant: the higher the unemployment and illiteracy levels and the older the cars, the greater the comparative mortality figure and ratio of potential years of life lost, and the lower the life expectancy (negative correlations). Conversely, the higher the telephone use, the more powerful the cars, and the greater the rateable value, the lower the mortality (negative correlations) and the greater the life expectancy. These correlations were greater in males than in females. The highest correlations were with illiteracy. CONCLUSIONS--This study has detected significant differences in mortality in a large town in the Mediterranean region of Europe. Images PMID:7499987

Assessment of spatial variability of major-ion concentrations and del oxygen-18 values in surface snow, Upper Fremont Glacier, Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naftz, D.L.; Schuster, P.F.; Reddy, M.M.

1994-01-01

One hundred samples were collected from the surface of the Upper Fremont Glacier at equally spaced intervals defined by an 8100m2 snow grid to asesss the significance of lateral variability in major-ion concentrations and del oxygen-18 values. Comparison of the observed variability of each chemical constituent to the variability expected by measurement error indicated substantial lateral variability with the surface-snow layer. Results of the nested ANOVA indicate most of the variance for every constituent is in the values grouped at the two smaller geographic scales (between 506m2 and within 506m2 sections). The variance data from the snow grid were used to develop equations to evaluate the significance of both positive and negative concentration/value peaks of nitrate and del oxygen-18 with depth, in a 160m ice core. Values of del oxygen-18 in the section from 110-150m below the surface consistently vary outside the expected limits and possibly represents cooler temperatures during the Little Ice Age from about 1810 to 1725 A.D. -from Authors

Complementary contributions of basolateral amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex to value learning under uncertainty

PubMed Central

Stolyarova, Alexandra; Izquierdo, Alicia

2017-01-01

We make choices based on the values of expected outcomes, informed by previous experience in similar settings. When the outcomes of our decisions consistently violate expectations, new learning is needed to maximize rewards. Yet not every surprising event indicates a meaningful change in the environment. Even when conditions are stable overall, outcomes of a single experience can still be unpredictable due to small fluctuations (i.e., expected uncertainty) in reward or costs. In the present work, we investigate causal contributions of the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) in rats to learning under expected outcome uncertainty in a novel delay-based task that incorporates both predictable fluctuations and directional shifts in outcome values. We demonstrate that OFC is required to accurately represent the distribution of wait times to stabilize choice preferences despite trial-by-trial fluctuations in outcomes, whereas BLA is necessary for the facilitation of learning in response to surprising events. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.27483.001 PMID:28682238

Using Performance-Based Risk-Sharing Arrangements to Address Uncertainty in Indication-Based Pricing.

PubMed

Yeung, Kai; Li, Meng; Carlson, Josh J

2017-10-01

The rise in pharmaceutical expenditures in recent years has increased health care payer interest in ensuring good value for the money. Indication-based pricing (IBP) sets separate, indication-specific prices paid to the manufacturer according to the expected efficacy of a drug in each of its indications. IBP allows payers to consistently pay for value across indications. While promising, a limitation of IBP as originally conceived is that efficacy estimates are typically based on clinical trial data, which may differ from real-world effectiveness. An outcomes guarantee is a type of performance-based risk-sharing arrangement that adjusts payments according to prospectively tracked outcomes. We suggest that an outcomes guarantee contract, which has been used by some payers, may be adapted to achieve indication-based prices supported by real-world effectiveness. To illustrate the potential of an outcomes guarantee to achieve indication-based prices aligned with real-world value, using a case study of trastuzumab for the treatment of metastatic breast and advanced gastric cancers. We estimated costs and outcomes under traditional IBP (i.e., expected value IBP) and outcomes guarantee frameworks and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing treatment with and without trastuzumab. Efficacy data came from pivotal trials, whereas effectiveness data came from observational studies. We adjusted trastuzumab prices in order to achieve target ICERs of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year under each framework and for each indication. To achieve the ICER target under traditional IBP, the unit price of trastuzumab using efficacy evidence was adjusted for metastatic breast and advanced gastric cancers from an average sales price of $9.17 per mg to $3.50 per mg and $0.93 per mg, respectively. Under an outcomes guarantee, the unit price of trastuzumab using effectiveness evidence was adjusted for metastatic breast cancer and advanced gastric cancer to $8.66 per mg and $0.20 per mg, respectively. Like expected value IBP, outcomes guarantee contracts can also vary payment based on indication. In addition, an outcomes guarantee can also reduce uncertainty regarding effectiveness and better align payment with the actual value of a treatment. No funding supported this study. Carlson reports consulting fees from Genentech, Pfizer, and Seattle Genetics. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose. Study concept and design were contributed by Carlson, Yeung, and Li. Yeung, Carlson, and Li collected and analyzed the data. The manuscript was written primarily by Yeung, along with Carlson and Li, and revised by all the authors.

Familism, family ethnic socialization, and Mexican-origin adolescent mothers' educational adjustment.

PubMed

Bravo, Diamond Y; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J; Guimond, Amy B; Updegraff, Kimberly A; Jahromi, Laudan B

2014-07-01

The current longitudinal study examined how familism values and family ethnic socialization impacted Mexican-origin adolescent mothers' (N = 205) educational adjustment (i.e., educational expectations, educational utility), and whether these associations were moderated by adolescent mothers' ethnic centrality. Findings indicated that adolescent mothers' reports of familism values and family ethnic socialization were positively associated with their beliefs about educational utility, but not educational expectations. Ethnic centrality moderated the association between adolescent mothers' familism values and educational utility, such that adolescent mothers' endorsement of familism values during pregnancy were associated with significant increases in educational utility after their transition to parenthood, but only when adolescents reported high levels of ethnic centrality. Moreover, ethnic centrality was positively associated with adolescent mothers' educational expectations. Results highlight the importance of familism, ethnic socialization, and ethnic centrality for promoting Mexican-origin adolescent mothers' educational outcomes. Findings are discussed with respect to understanding adolescent mothers' educational adjustment in the context of family and culture.

Familism, Family Ethnic Socialization, and Mexican-Origin Adolescent Mothers’ Educational Adjustment

PubMed Central

Bravo, Diamond Y.; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J.; Guimond, Amy B.; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Jahromi, Laudan B.

2016-01-01

The current longitudinal study examined how familism values and family ethnic socialization impacted Mexican-origin adolescent mothers’ (N = 205) educational adjustment (i.e., educational expectations, educational utility), and whether these associations were moderated by adolescent mothers’ ethnic centrality. Findings indicated that adolescent mothers’ reports of familism values and family ethnic socialization were positively associated with their beliefs about educational utility, but not educational expectations. Ethnic centrality moderated the association between adolescent mothers’ familism values and educational utility, such that adolescent mothers’ endorsement of familism values during pregnancy were associated with significant increases in educational utility after their transition to parenthood, but only when adolescents reported high levels of ethnic centrality. Moreover, ethnic centrality was positively associated with adolescent mothers’ educational expectations. Results highlight the importance of familism, ethnic socialization, and ethnic centrality for promoting Mexican-origin adolescent mothers’ educational outcomes. Findings are discussed with respect to understanding adolescent mothers’ educational adjustment in the context of family and culture. PMID:25045950

Performance of 3D-space-based atoms-in-molecules methods for electronic delocalization aromaticity indices.

PubMed

Heyndrickx, Wouter; Salvador, Pedro; Bultinck, Patrick; Solà, Miquel; Matito, Eduard

2011-02-01

Several definitions of an atom in a molecule (AIM) in three-dimensional (3D) space, including both fuzzy and disjoint domains, are used to calculate electron sharing indices (ESI) and related electronic aromaticity measures, namely, I(ring) and multicenter indices (MCI), for a wide set of cyclic planar aromatic and nonaromatic molecules of different ring size. The results obtained using the recent iterative Hirshfeld scheme are compared with those derived from the classical Hirshfeld method and from Bader's quantum theory of atoms in molecules. For bonded atoms, all methods yield ESI values in very good agreement, especially for C-C interactions. In the case of nonbonded interactions, there are relevant deviations, particularly between fuzzy and QTAIM schemes. These discrepancies directly translate into significant differences in the values and the trends of the aromaticity indices. In particular, the chemically expected trends are more consistently found when using disjoint domains. Careful examination of the underlying effects reveals the different reasons why the aromaticity indices investigated give the expected results for binary divisions of 3D space. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Drude Weight, Meissner Weight, Rotational Inertia of Bosonic Superfluids: How Are They Distinguished?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hetényi, Balázs

2014-03-01

The Drude weight, the quantity which distinguishes metals from insulators, is proportional to the second derivative of the ground state energy with respect to a flux at zero flux. The same expression also appears in the definition of the Meissner weight, the quantity which indicates superconductivity, as well as in the definition of non-classical rotational inertia of bosonic superfluids. It is shown that the difference between these quantities depends on the interpretation of the average momentum term, which can be understood as the expectation value of the total momentum (Drude weight), the sum of the expectation values of single momenta (rotational inertia of a superfluid), or the sum over expectation values of momentum pairs (Meissner weight). This distinction appears naturally when the current from which the particular transport quantity is derived is cast in terms of shift operators.

Value of information analysis optimizing future trial design from a pilot study on catheter securement devices.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Reynolds, Heather; Gordon, Louisa G; Rickard, Claire M; Scuffham, Paul A

2014-12-01

Value of information analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the standard hypothesis testing approach, which is based on type I and type II errors, in determining sample sizes for randomized clinical trials. However, in addition to sample size calculation, value of information analysis can optimize other aspects of research design such as possible comparator arms and alternative follow-up times, by considering trial designs that maximize the expected net benefit of research, which is the difference between the expected cost of the trial and the expected value of additional information. To apply value of information methods to the results of a pilot study on catheter securement devices to determine the optimal design of a future larger clinical trial. An economic evaluation was performed using data from a multi-arm randomized controlled pilot study comparing the efficacy of four types of catheter securement devices: standard polyurethane, tissue adhesive, bordered polyurethane and sutureless securement device. Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation was used to characterize uncertainty surrounding the study results and to calculate the expected value of additional information. To guide the optimal future trial design, the expected costs and benefits of the alternative trial designs were estimated and compared. Analysis of the value of further information indicated that a randomized controlled trial on catheter securement devices is potentially worthwhile. Among the possible designs for the future trial, a four-arm study with 220 patients/arm would provide the highest expected net benefit corresponding to 130% return-on-investment. The initially considered design of 388 patients/arm, based on hypothesis testing calculations, would provide lower net benefit with return-on-investment of 79%. Cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses were based on the data from a single pilot trial which might affect the accuracy of our uncertainty estimation. Another limitation was that different follow-up durations for the larger trial were not evaluated. The value of information approach allows efficient trial design by maximizing the expected net benefit of additional research. This approach should be considered early in the design of randomized clinical trials. © The Author(s) 2014.

The value of identity: olfactory notes on orbitofrontal cortex function.

PubMed

Gottfried, Jay A; Zelano, Christina

2011-12-01

Neuroscientific research has emphatically promoted the idea that the key function of the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is to encode value. Associative learning studies indicate that OFC representations of stimulus cues reflect the predictive value of expected outcomes. Neuroeconomic studies suggest that the OFC distills abstract representations of value from discrete commodities to optimize choice. Although value-based models provide good explanatory power for many different findings, these models are typically disconnected from the very stimuli and commodities giving rise to those value representations. Little provision is made, either theoretically or empirically, for the necessary cooperative role of object identity, without which value becomes orphaned from its source. As a step toward remediating the value of identity, this review provides a focused olfactory survey of OFC research, including new work from our lab, to highlight the elemental involvement of this region in stimulus-specific predictive coding of both perceptual outcomes and expected values. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Using a survey to estimate health expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy to assess inequalities in health and quality of life.

PubMed

Collins, Brendan

2013-06-01

There has been a policy debate in the United Kingdom about moving beyond traditional measures of life expectancy and economic output to developing more meaningful ways of measuring national well-being. To test whether quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE) was a useful indicator of health inequalities. EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire data from a well-being survey was combined with actuarial life expectancy (LE) data to estimate healthy LE (HLE), that is, years of life lived in good health, and QALE, that is, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lived for Wirral, a borough in the north west of England. The gap between Wirral and the most deprived areas was 4.45 years for LE, 5.34 for QALE, and 7.55 for HLE. The gap in QALE was 20% greater than the gap in LE, while the gap in HLE was 70% greater. The fact that the QALE gap value lies between the HLE value and the LE value suggests that QALE is a more sensitive indicator than HLE, as in this study QALE is derived from 243 possible EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire profiles whereas HLE is based only on whether or not an individual rates his or her health as good, a binary variable. This study discusses how QALE could be a useful indicator for measuring health inequalities in future, especially as cost utility and QALYs are seen as the gold standard used by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence in the United Kingdom to measure outcomes for health interventions in England, and discusses how a monetary valuation of QALYs could be used to put a societal cost on health inequalities. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of efficiency indicators of operating room management for multi-institutional comparisons.

PubMed

Tanaka, Masayuki; Lee, Jason; Ikai, Hiroshi; Imanaka, Yuichi

2013-04-01

The efficiency of a hospital's operating room (OR) management can affect its overall profitability. However, existing indicators that assess OR management efficiency do not take into account differences in hospital size, manpower and functional characteristics, thereby rendering them unsuitable for multi-institutional comparisons. The aim of this study was to develop indicators of OR management efficiency that would take into account differences in hospital size and manpower, which may then be applied to multi-institutional comparisons. Using administrative data from 224 hospitals in Japan from 2008 to 2010, we performed four multiple linear regression analyses at the hospital level, in which the dependent variables were the number of operations per OR per month, procedural fees per OR per month, total utilization times per OR per month and total fees per OR per month for each of the models. The expected values of these four indicators were produced using multiple regression analysis results, adjusting for differences in hospital size and manpower, which are beyond the control of process owners' management. However, more than half of the variations in three of these four indicators were shown to be explained by differences in hospital size and manpower. Using the ratio of observed to expected values (OE ratio), as well as the difference between the two values (OE difference) allows hospitals to identify weaknesses in efficiency with more validity when compared to unadjusted indicators. The new indicators may support the improvement and sustainment of a high-quality health care system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Quantifying biological integrity by taxonomic completeness: its utility in regional and global assessments.

PubMed

Hawkins, Charles P

2006-08-01

Water resources managers and conservation biologists need reliable, quantitative, and directly comparable methods for assessing the biological integrity of the world's aquatic ecosystems. Large-scale assessments are constrained by the lack of consistency in the indicators used to assess biological integrity and our current inability to translate between indicators. In theory, assessments based on estimates of taxonomic completeness, i.e., the proportion of expected taxa that were observed (observed/expected, O/E) are directly comparable to one another and should therefore allow regionally and globally consistent summaries of the biological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. However, we know little about the true comparability of O/E assessments derived from different data sets or how well O/E assessments perform relative to other indicators in use. I compared the performance (precision, bias, and sensitivity to stressors) of O/E assessments based on five different data sets with the performance of the indicators previously applied to these data (three multimetric indices, a biotic index, and a hybrid method used by the state of Maine). Analyses were based on data collected from U.S. stream ecosystems in North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic Highlands, Maine, and Ohio. O/E assessments resulted in very similar estimates of mean regional conditions compared with most other indicators once these indicators' values were standardized relative to reference-site means. However, other indicators tended to be biased estimators of O/E, a consequence of differences in their response to natural environmental gradients and sensitivity to stressors. These results imply that, in some cases, it may be possible to compare assessments derived from different indicators by standardizing their values (a statistical approach to data harmonization). In situations where it is difficult to standardize or otherwise harmonize two or more indicators, O/E values can easily be derived from existing raw sample data. With some caveats, O/E should provide more directly comparable assessments of biological integrity across regions than is possible by harmonizing values of a mix of indicators.

Only Above Barrier Energy Components Contribute to Barrier Traversal Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galapon, Eric A.

2012-04-01

A time of arrival operator across a square potential barrier is constructed. The expectation value of the barrier time of arrival operator for a sufficiently localized incident wave packet is compared with the expectation value of the free particle time of arrival operator for the same wave packet. The comparison yields an expression for the expected traversal time across the barrier. It is shown that only the above barrier components of the momentum distribution of the incident wave packet contribute to the barrier traversal time, implying that below the barrier components are transmitted without delay. This is consistent with the recent experiment in attosecond ionization in helium indicating that there is no real tunneling delay time [P. Eckle , Science 322, 1525 (2008)SCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1163439].

A promising new thermoelectric material - Ruthenium silicide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vining, Cronin B.; Mccormack, Joseph A.; Zoltan, Andrew; Zoltan, Leslie D.

1991-01-01

Experimental and theoretical efforts directed toward increasing thermoelectric figure of merit values by a factor of 2 or 3 have been encouraging in several respects. An accurate and detailed theoretical model developed for n-type silicon-germanium (SiGe) indicates that ZT values several times higher than currently available are expected under certain conditions. These new, high ZT materials are expected to be significantly different from SiGe, but not unreasonably so. Several promising candidate materials have been identified which may meet the conditions required by theory. One such candidate, ruthenium silicide, currently under development at JPL, has been estimated to have the potential to exhibit figure of merit values 4 times higher than conventional SiGe materials. Recent results are summarized.

Engine monitoring display study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hornsby, Mary E.

1992-01-01

The current study is part of a larger NASA effort to develop displays for an engine-monitoring system to enable the crew to monitor engine parameter trends more effectively. The objective was to evaluate the operational utility of adding three types of information to the basic Boeing Engine Indicating and Crew Alerting System (EICAS) display formats: alphanumeric alerting messages for engine parameters whose values exceed caution or warning limits; alphanumeric messages to monitor engine parameters that deviate from expected values; and a graphic depiction of the range of expected values for current conditions. Ten training and line pilots each flew 15 simulated flight scenarios with five variants of the basic EICAS format; these variants included different combinations of the added information. The pilots detected engine problems more quickly when engine alerting messages were included in the display; adding a graphic depiction of the range of expected values did not affect detection speed. The pilots rated both types of alphanumeric messages (alert and monitor parameter) as more useful and easier to interpret than the graphic depiction. Integrating engine parameter messages into the EICAS alerting system appears to be both useful and preferred.

My Pride and Joy? Predicting Favoritism and Disfavoritism in Mother-Adult Child Relations.

PubMed

Suitor, J Jill; Gilligan, Megan; Peng, Siyun; Con, Gulcin; Rurka, Marissa; Pillemer, Karl

2016-08-01

In this article, we compare predictors of mothers' differentiation among their adult children regarding emotional closeness, pride, conflict, and disappointment. We distinguish between predictors of relational (closeness, conflict) and evaluative (pride, disappointment) dimensions of favoritism and disfavoritism. Multilevel modeling using data collected from 381 older mothers regarding their relationships with 1,421 adult children indicated that adult children's similarity of values played the most prominent role in predicting mothers' favoritism and disfavoritism, followed by children's gender. Children's deviant behaviors in adulthood predicted both pride and disappointment but neither relational dimension. Contrary to expectations, the quantitative analysis indicated that children's normative adult achievements were poor predictors of both relational and evaluative dimensions of mothers' differentiation. Qualitative data shed additional light on mothers' evaluations by revealing that disappointment was shaped by children's achievements relative to their mothers' values and expectations, rather than by the achievement of specific societal, educational, career, and marital milestones.

The Relationship between Saccadic Choice and Reaction Times with Manipulations of Target Value

PubMed Central

Milstein, David M.; Dorris, Michael C.

2011-01-01

Choosing the option with the highest expected value (EV; reward probability × reward magnitude) maximizes the intake of reward under conditions of uncertainty. However, human economic choices indicate that our value calculation has a subjective component whereby probability and reward magnitude are not linearly weighted. Using a similar economic framework, our goal was to characterize how subjective value influences the generation of simple motor actions. Specifically, we hypothesized that attributes of saccadic eye movements could provide insight into how rhesus monkeys, a well-studied animal model in cognitive neuroscience, subjectively value potential visual targets. In the first experiment, monkeys were free to choose by directing a saccade toward one of two simultaneously displayed targets, each of which had an uncertain outcome. In this task, choices were more likely to be allocated toward the higher valued target. In the second experiment, only one of the two possible targets appeared on each trial. In this task, saccadic reaction times (SRTs) decreased toward the higher valued target. Reward magnitude had a much stronger influence on both choices and SRTs than probability, whose effect was observed only when reward magnitude was similar for both targets. Across EV blocks, a strong relationship was observed between choice preferences and SRTs. However, choices tended to maximize at skewed values whereas SRTs varied more continuously. Lastly, SRTs were unchanged when all reward magnitudes were 1×, 1.5×, and 2× their normal amount, indicating that saccade preparation was influenced by the relative value of the targets rather than the absolute value of any single-target. We conclude that value is not only an important factor for deliberative decision making in primates, but also for the selection and preparation of simple motor actions, such as saccadic eye movements. More precisely, our results indicate that, under conditions of uncertainty, saccade choices and reaction times are influenced by the relative expected subjective value of potential movements. PMID:22028681

Consumer familiarity, perspectives and expected value of personalized medicine with a focus on applications in oncology

PubMed Central

Garfeld, Susan; Douglas, Michael P; MacDonald, Karen V; Marshall, Deborah A; Phillips, Kathryn A

2015-01-01

Aims Knowledge of consumer perspectives of personalized medicine (PM) is limited. Our study assessed consumer perspectives of PM, with a focus on oncology care, to inform industry, clinician and payer stakeholders' programs and policy. Materials & Methods A nationally representative survey of 602 US consumers' ≥30 years old explored familiarity, perspectives and expected value of PM. Results Most (73%) respondents have not heard of ‘personalized medicine,’ though after understanding the term most (95%) expect PM to have a positive beneft. Consumer's willingness to pay is associated with products' impact on survival, rather than predicting disease risk. If testing indicates consumers are not candidates for oncology therapies, most (84%) would seek a second opinion or want therapy anyway. Conclusions Understanding heterogeneity in consumer perspectives of PM can inform program and policy development. PMID:25620993

Correlation of sex ratio at birth with health and socioeconomic indicators.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The sex ratio at birth (male divided by total live births: M/T) has been mooted as a potential sentinel health indicator. Several metrics indicate individual countries' health and socioeconomic status. In this study, in all available countries (where such data was accessible), M/T and these indicators were compared in order to ascertain whether better (vis-à-vis health and socioeconomic status) levels of these indicators were associated with higher M/T in available countries. The following were obtained (by country) from various sources: M/T, infant mortality rate, under 5 years mortality rate, fertility rate, Human Development Index, gross domestic product per capita, life expectancy for both sexes, females, males, as well as both sexes Health Adjusted Life Expectancy (HALE). Pearson correlation was performed comparing M/T and these indicators. Despite weak correlation values, all except for the Human Development Index (HDI) correlated with M/T at statistically significant levels. A decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy and GDP/capita are indicators of socioeconomic wellbeing. In this study, mortality was negatively correlated with M/T. Life expectancy and GDP/capita were both positively correlated with M/T, indicating that M/T may also serve as a surrogate health indicator, and incidentally, also supporting the Trivers-Willard hypothesis. Improving economies lead to increasing education, which in turns tends to lower fertility rate in association with a declining M/T. In conclusion, the global correlation of health and socioeconomic indicators with M/T suggests that M/T may be a useful sentinel health indicator. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synergistic Effects of Expectancy and Value on Homework Engagement: The Case for a Within-Person Perspective.

PubMed

Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich; Kelava, Augustin; Lüdtke, Oliver

2013-05-01

Historically, expectancy-value models of motivation assumed a synergistic relation between expectancy and value: motivation is high only when both expectancy and value are high. Motivational processes were studied from a within-person perspective, with expectancies and values being assessed or experimentally manipulated across multiple domains and the focus being placed on intraindividual differences. In contrast, contemporary expectancy-value models in educational psychology concentrate almost exclusively on linear effects of expectancy and value on motivational outcomes, with a focus on between-person differences. Recent advances in latent variable methodology allow both issues to be addressed in observational studies. Using the expectancy-value model of homework motivation as a theoretical framework, this study estimated multilevel structural equation models with latent interactions in a sample of 511 secondary school students and found synergistic effects between domain-specific homework expectancy and homework value in predicting homework engagement in 6 subjects. This approach not only brings the "×" back into expectancy-value theory but also reestablishes the within-person perspective as the appropriate level of analysis for latent expectancy-value models.

Estimation of the geochemical threshold and its statistical significance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miesch, A.T.

1981-01-01

A statistic is proposed for estimating the geochemical threshold and its statistical significance, or it may be used to identify a group of extreme values that can be tested for significance by other means. The statistic is the maximum gap between adjacent values in an ordered array after each gap has been adjusted for the expected frequency. The values in the ordered array are geochemical values transformed by either ln(?? - ??) or ln(?? - ??) and then standardized so that the mean is zero and the variance is unity. The expected frequency is taken from a fitted normal curve with unit area. The midpoint of an adjusted gap that exceeds the corresponding critical value may be taken as an estimate of the geochemical threshold, and the associated probability indicates the likelihood that the threshold separates two geochemical populations. The adjusted gap test may fail to identify threshold values if the variation tends to be continuous from background values to the higher values that reflect mineralized ground. However, the test will serve to identify other anomalies that may be too subtle to have been noted by other means. ?? 1981.

The Role of Religiousness and Gender in Sexuality Among Mexican Adolescents.

PubMed

Espinosa-Hernández, Graciela; Bissell-Havran, Joanna; Nunn, Anna

2015-01-01

This study examined the role of religiousness and gender in age at first intercourse, and sexual expectations and values in Mexico, a macrocontext where the majority is Mexican and Catholic (83%). Participants were Catholic and nonreligious adolescents (54% girls) attending middle (71%) or high school. Findings indicated that Catholic adolescents engaged in sexual intercourse at later ages than nonreligious adolescents. Both religious attendance and importance of religion and values in sexual decision making were associated with more conservative sexual values. Boys who were raised Catholic were more likely to endorse female virginity values and were less likely to expect to wait to have sex until married than nonreligious boys. These associations were not significant among girls. Catholic boys may be more likely to internalize sexual double standard beliefs regarding premarital sex than nonreligious boys. This study expands our understanding of the role of religiousness in Mexican adolescents' sexuality.

Dissociating motivation from reward in human striatal activity.

PubMed

Miller, Eric M; Shankar, Maya U; Knutson, Brian; McClure, Samuel M

2014-05-01

Neural activity in the striatum has consistently been shown to scale with the value of anticipated rewards. As a result, it is common across a number of neuroscientific subdiscliplines to associate activation in the striatum with anticipation of a rewarding outcome or a positive emotional state. However, most studies have failed to dissociate expected value from the motivation associated with seeking a reward. Although motivation generally scales positively with increases in potential reward, there are circumstances in which this linkage does not apply. The current study dissociates value-related activation from that induced by motivation alone by employing a task in which motivation increased as anticipated reward decreased. This design reverses the typical relationship between motivation and reward, allowing us to differentially investigate fMRI BOLD responses that scale with each. We report that activity scaled differently with value and motivation across the striatum. Specifically, responses in the caudate and putamen increased with motivation, whereas nucleus accumbens activity increased with expected reward. Consistent with this, self-report ratings indicated a positive association between caudate and putamen activity and arousal, whereas activity in the nucleus accumbens was more associated with liking. We conclude that there exist regional limits on inferring reward expectation from striatal activation.

Dissociating Motivation from Reward in Human Striatal Activity

PubMed Central

Miller, Eric M.; Shankar, Maya U.; Knutson, Brian; McClure, Samuel M.

2018-01-01

Neural activity in the striatum has consistently been shown to scale with the value of anticipated rewards. As a result, it is common across a number of neuroscientific subdiscliplines to associate activation in the striatum with anticipation of a rewarding outcome or a positive emotional state. However, most studies have failed to dissociate expected value from the motivation associated with seeking a reward. Although motivation generally scales positively with increases in potential reward, there are circumstances in which this linkage does not apply. The current study dissociates value-related activation from that induced by motivation alone by employing a task in which motivation increased as anticipated reward decreased. This design reverses the typical relationship between motivation and reward, allowing us to differentially investigate fMRI BOLD responses that scale with each. We report that activity scaled differently with value and motivation across the striatum. Specifically, responses in the caudate and putamen increased with motivation, whereas nucleus accumbens activity increased with expected reward. Consistent with this, self-report ratings indicated a positive association between caudate and putamen activity and arousal, whereas activity in the nucleus accumbens was more associated with liking. We conclude that there exist regional limits on inferring reward expectation from striatal activation. PMID:24345173

Identification of features in indexed data and equipment therefore

DOEpatents

Jarman, Kristin H [Richland, WA; Daly, Don Simone [Richland, WA; Anderson, Kevin K [Richland, WA; Wahl, Karen L [Richland, WA

2002-04-02

Embodiments of the present invention provide methods of identifying a feature in an indexed dataset. Such embodiments encompass selecting an initial subset of indices, the initial subset of indices being encompassed by an initial window-of-interest and comprising at least one beginning index and at least one ending index; computing an intensity weighted measure of dispersion for the subset of indices using a subset of responses corresponding to the subset of indices; and comparing the intensity weighted measure of dispersion to a dispersion critical value determined from an expected value of the intensity weighted measure of dispersion under a null hypothesis of no transient feature present. Embodiments of the present invention also encompass equipment configured to perform the methods of the present invention.

The effect of technology information on consumer expectations and liking of beef.

PubMed

Van Wezemael, Lynn; Ueland, Øydis; Rødbotten, Rune; De Smet, Stefaan; Scholderer, Joachim; Verbeke, Wim

2012-02-01

European consumers increasingly attach value to process characteristics of food. Although beef technologies are hardly communicated to consumers, providing consumer-oriented information about technology application might increase perceived transparency and consumer acceptance. This study investigates how information about beef technologies influences consumer expectations and liking of beef. Beef consumers in Belgium (n = 108) and Norway (n = 110) participated in an information experiment combined with sensory testing in which each consumer tasted three beef muscles treated with different technologies: unprocessed tenderloin M. Psoas major, muscle profiled M. Infraspinatus, and marinated (by injection) M. Semitendinosus. The findings indicate that detailed information about beef technologies can enhance consumers' expectations and liking of beef. However, this effect differs between countries and beef technologies. Information becomes either less relevant when the product is actually tasted, as indicated by the findings in Norway, or more relevant when information is confirmed by own experience during tasting, as indicated by the findings in Belgium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simple formulation and solution to the replacement problem: a practical tool to assess the economic cow value, the value of a new pregnancy, and the cost of a pregnancy loss.

PubMed

Cabrera, V E

2012-08-01

This study contributes to the research literature by providing a new formulation for the cow replacement problem, and it also contributes to the Extension deliverables by providing a user-friendly decision support system tool that would more likely be adopted and applied for practical decision making. The cow value, its related values of a new pregnancy and a pregnancy loss, and their associated replacement policies determine profitability in dairy farming. One objective of this study was to present a simple, interactive, dynamic, and robust formulation of the cow value and the replacement problem, including expectancy of the future production of the cow and the genetic gain of the replacement. The proven hypothesis of this study was that all the above requirements could be achieved by using a Markov chain algorithm. The Markov chain model allowed (1) calculation of a forward expected value of a studied cow and its replacement; (2) use of a single model (the Markov chain) to calculate both the replacement policies and the herd statistics; (3) use of a predefined, preestablished farm reproductive replacement policy; (4) inclusion of a farmer's assessment of the expected future performance of a cow; (5) inclusion of a farmer's assessment of genetic gain with a replacement; and (6) use of a simple spreadsheet or an online system to implement the decision support system. Results clearly demonstrated that the decision policies found with the Markov chain model were consistent with more complex dynamic programming models. The final user-friendly decision support tool is available at http://dairymgt.info/ → Tools → The Economic Value of a Dairy Cow. This tool calculates the cow value instantaneously and is highly interactive, dynamic, and robust. When a Wisconsin dairy farm was studied using the model, the solution policy called for replacing nonpregnant cows 11 mo after calving or months in milk (MIM) if in the first lactation and 9 MIM if in later lactations. The cow value for an average second-lactation cow was as follows: (1) when nonpregnant, (a) $897 in MIM = 1 and (b) $68 in MIM = 8; (2) when the cow just became pregnant,(a) $889 for a pregnancy in MIM = 3 and (b) $298 for a pregnancy in MIM = 8; and (3) the value of a pregnancy loss when a cow became pregnant in MIM = 5 was (a) $221 when the loss was in the first month of pregnancy and (b) $897 when the loss was in the ninth month of pregnancy. The cow value indicated pregnant cows should be kept. The expected future production of a cow with respect to a similar average cow was an important determinant in the cow replacement decision. The expected production in the rest of the lactation was more important for nonpregnant cows, and the expected production in successive lactations was more important for pregnant cows. A 120% expected milk production for a cow with MIM = 16 and 6 mo pregnant in the present lactation or in successive lactations determined between 1.52 and 6.48 times the cow value, respectively, of an average production cow. The cow value decreased by $211 for every 1 percentage point of expected genetic gain of the replacement. A break-even analysis of the cow value with respect to expected milk production of an average second-parity cow indicated that (1) nonpregnant cows in MIM = 1 and 8 could still remain in the herd if they produced at least 84 and 98% in the present lactation or if they produced at least 78 and 97% in future lactations, respectively; and (2) cows becoming pregnant in MIM = 5 would require at least 64% of milk production in the rest of the lactation or 93% in successive lactations to remain in the herd. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Who took the "x" out of expectancy-value theory? A psychological mystery, a substantive-methodological synergy, and a cross-national generalization.

PubMed

Nagengast, Benjamin; Marsh, Herbert W; Scalas, L Francesca; Xu, Man K; Hau, Kit-Tai; Trautwein, Ulrich

2011-08-01

Expectancy-value theory (EVT) is a dominant theory of human motivation. Historically, the Expectancy × Value interaction, in which motivation is high only if both expectancy and value are high, was central to EVT. However, the Expectancy × Value interaction mysteriously disappeared from published research more than 25 years ago. Using large representative samples of 15-year-olds (N = 398,750) from 57 diverse countries, we attempted to solve this mystery by testing Expectancy × Value interactions using latent-variable models with interactions. Expectancy (science self-concept), value (enjoyment of science), and the Expectancy × Value interaction all had statistically significant positive effects on both engagement in science activities and intentions of pursuing scientific careers; these results were similar for the total sample and for nearly all of the 57 countries considered separately. This study, apparently the strongest cross-national test of EVT ever undertaken, supports the generalizability of EVT predictions--including the "lost" Expectancy × Value interaction.

The Benefits of Restoration in Urbanizing Watersheds: Developing Value Indicators and Understanding Social Barriers and Opportunities

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological restoration can reestablish ecosystem services (ES) that provide important social benefits, but managers with limited funds and resources are forced to prioritize potential restoration sites. Prioritizing restoration sites based on ecological functioning and expected ...

Career Salience of Institutionalized Adolescent Offenders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Munson, Wayne W.; Strauss, Christine F.

1993-01-01

Investigated self-esteem and career salience of institutionalized male adolescent offenders (n=185) in context of Super's lifespan career development theory. Results indicated that participation, commitment, and values expectations in home-family roles contributed significantly to self-esteem in adolescent offenders. Adolescent offenders differed…

Factors affecting the value of a wilderness visit: a contingent valuation study of Caribou-Speckled Mountain Wilderness users

Treesearch

Jeffery A. Michael; Stephen Reiling; Hsiang-Tai Cheng

1995-01-01

A dichotomous choice contingent valuation model is estimated using an on-site survey of Caribou-Speckled Mountain Wilderness visitors. The results indicate that pre-trip expectations of various trip attributes such as congestion have a greater impact on a trip?s value than the actual conditions of the visit. This research also shows that future economic studies of an...

Applying the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects to detect abnormal rises in school absenteeism indicating infectious diseases outbreak.

PubMed

Song, X X; Zhao, Q; Tao, T; Zhou, C M; Diwan, V K; Xu, B

2018-05-30

Records of absenteeism from primary schools are valuable data for infectious diseases surveillance. However, the analysis of the absenteeism is complicated by the data features of clustering at zero, non-independence and overdispersion. This study aimed to generate an appropriate model to handle the absenteeism data collected in a European Commission granted project for infectious disease surveillance in rural China and to evaluate the validity and timeliness of the resulting model for early warnings of infectious disease outbreak. Four steps were taken: (1) building a 'well-fitting' model by the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects (ZIP-RE) using the absenteeism data from the first implementation year; (2) applying the resulting model to predict the 'expected' number of absenteeism events in the second implementation year; (3) computing the differences between the observations and the expected values (O-E values) to generate an alternative series of data; (4) evaluating the early warning validity and timeliness of the observational data and model-based O-E values via the EARS-3C algorithms with regard to the detection of real cluster events. The results indicate that ZIP-RE and its corresponding O-E values could improve the detection of aberrations, reduce the false-positive signals and are applicable to the zero-inflated data.

Global value of GM rice: a review of expected agronomic and consumer benefits.

PubMed

Demont, Matty; Stein, Alexander J

2013-06-25

Unlike the other major crops, no genetically modified (GM) varieties of rice have been commercialized at a large scale. Within the next 2-3 years new transgenic rice varieties could be ready for regulatory approval and subsequent commercialization, though. Given the importance of rice as staple crop for many of the world's poorest people, this will have implications for the alleviation of poverty, hunger and malnutrition. Thus, policy-makers need to be aware of the potential benefits of GM rice. We provide an overview of the literature and discuss the evidence on expected agronomic and consumer benefits of genetically engineered rice. We find that while GM rice with improved agronomic traits could deliver benefits similar to already commercialized biotechnology crops, expected benefits of consumer traits could be higher by an order of magnitude. By aggregating the expected annual benefits, we estimate the global value of GM rice to be US$64 billion per year. This is only an indicative value, as more GM varieties will become available in future. Nevertheless, such a figure can help guide policy-makers when deciding on the approval or funding of biotechnology crops and it may also raise awareness among consumers about what is at stake for their societies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The nature of the evolution of galaxies by mergers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterjee, Tapan K.

1993-01-01

The merger theory for the formation of elliptical galaxies is examined by conducting a dynamical study of the expected frequency of merging galaxies on the basis of the collisional theory, using galaxy models without halos. The expected merger rates obtained on the basis of the collisional theory fall about a magnitude below the observational value in the present epoch. In the light of current observational evidence and the results obtained, a marked regularity in the formation of ellipticals is indicated, followed by secular evolution by mergers.

The Neurobiology of Reference-Dependent Value Computation

PubMed Central

De Martino, Benedetto; Kumaran, Dharshan; Holt, Beatrice; Dolan, Raymond J.

2009-01-01

A key focus of current research in neuroeconomics concerns how the human brain computes value. Although, value has generally been viewed as an absolute measure (e.g., expected value, reward magnitude), much evidence suggests that value is more often computed with respect to a changing reference point, rather than in isolation. Here, we present the results of a study aimed to dissociate brain regions involved in reference-independent (i.e., “absolute”) value computations, from those involved in value computations relative to a reference point. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, subjects acted as buyers and sellers during a market exchange of lottery tickets. At a behavioral level, we demonstrate that subjects systematically accorded a higher value to objects they owned relative to those they did not, an effect that results from a shift in reference point (i.e., status quo bias or endowment effect). Our results show that activity in orbitofrontal cortex and dorsal striatum track parameters such as the expected value of lottery tickets indicating the computation of reference-independent value. In contrast, activity in ventral striatum indexed the degree to which stated prices, at a within-subjects and between-subjects level, were distorted with respect to a reference point. The findings speak to the neurobiological underpinnings of reference dependency during real market value computations. PMID:19321780

Monitoring trichloroethene remediation at an iron permeable reactive barrier using stable carbon isotopic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanStone, Nancy; Przepiora, Andrzej; Vogan, John; Lacrampe-Couloume, Georges; Powers, Brian; Perez, Ernesto; Mabury, Scott; Sherwood Lollar, Barbara

2005-08-01

Stable carbon isotopic analysis, in combination with compositional analysis, was used to evaluate the performance of an iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for the remediation of ground water contaminated with trichloroethene (TCE) at Spill Site 7 (SS7), F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming. Compositional data indicated that although the PRB appeared to be reducing TCE to concentrations below treatment goals within and immediately downgradient of the PRB, concentrations remained higher than expected at wells further downgradient (i.e. > 9 m) of the PRB. At two wells downgradient of the PRB, TCE concentrations were comparable to upgradient values, and δ13C values of TCE at these wells were not significantly different than upgradient values. Since the process of sorption/desorption does not significantly fractionate carbon isotope values, this suggests that the TCE observed at these wells is desorbing from local aquifer materials and was present before the PRB was installed. In contrast, three other downgradient wells show significantly more enriched δ13C values compared to the upgradient mean. In addition, δ13C values for the degradation products of TCE, cis-dichloroethene and vinyl chloride, show fractionation patterns expected for the products of the reductive dechlorination of TCE. Since concentrations of both TCE and degradation products drop to below detection limit in wells within the PRB and directly below it, these downgradient chlorinated hydrocarbon concentrations are attributed to desorption from local aquifer material. The carbon isotope values indicate that this dissolved contaminant is subject to local degradation, likely due to in situ microbial activity.

Monitoring trichloroethene remediation at an iron permeable reactive barrier using stable carbon isotopic analysis.

PubMed

VanStone, Nancy; Przepiora, Andrzej; Vogan, John; Lacrampe-Couloume, Georges; Powers, Brian; Perez, Ernesto; Mabury, Scott; Sherwood Lollar, Barbara

2005-08-01

Stable carbon isotopic analysis, in combination with compositional analysis, was used to evaluate the performance of an iron permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for the remediation of ground water contaminated with trichloroethene (TCE) at Spill Site 7 (SS7), F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming. Compositional data indicated that although the PRB appeared to be reducing TCE to concentrations below treatment goals within and immediately downgradient of the PRB, concentrations remained higher than expected at wells further downgradient (i.e. >9 m) of the PRB. At two wells downgradient of the PRB, TCE concentrations were comparable to upgradient values, and delta13C values of TCE at these wells were not significantly different than upgradient values. Since the process of sorption/desorption does not significantly fractionate carbon isotope values, this suggests that the TCE observed at these wells is desorbing from local aquifer materials and was present before the PRB was installed. In contrast, three other downgradient wells show significantly more enriched delta13C values compared to the upgradient mean. In addition, delta13C values for the degradation products of TCE, cis-dichloroethene and vinyl chloride, show fractionation patterns expected for the products of the reductive dechlorination of TCE. Since concentrations of both TCE and degradation products drop to below detection limit in wells within the PRB and directly below it, these downgradient chlorinated hydrocarbon concentrations are attributed to desorption from local aquifer material. The carbon isotope values indicate that this dissolved contaminant is subject to local degradation, likely due to in situ microbial activity.

Content Specificity of Expectancy Beliefs and Task Values in Elementary Physical Education

PubMed Central

Chen, Ang; Martin, Robert; Ennis, Catherine D.; Sun, Haichun

2015-01-01

The curriculum may superimpose a content-specific context that mediates motivation (Bong, 2001). This study examined content specificity of the expectancy-value motivation in elementary school physical education. Students’ expectancy beliefs and perceived task values from a cardiorespiratory fitness unit, a muscular fitness unit, and a traditional skill/game unit were analyzed using constant comparison coding procedures, multivariate analysis of variance, χ2, and correlation analyses. There was no difference in the intrinsic interest value among the three content conditions. Expectancy belief, attainment, and utility values were significantly higher for the cardiorespiratory fitness curriculum. Correlations differentiated among the expectancy-value components of the content conditions, providing further evidence of content specificity in the expectancy-value motivation process. The findings suggest that expectancy beliefs and task values should be incorporated in the theoretical platform for curriculum development based on the learning outcomes that can be specified with enhanced motivation effect. PMID:18664044

Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

PubMed

Wigfield; Eccles

2000-01-01

We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Communicating asset risk: how name recognition and the format of historic volatility information affect risk perception and investment decisions.

PubMed

Weber, Elke U; Siebenmorgen, Niklas; Weber, Martin

2005-06-01

An experiment examined how the type and presentation format of information about investment options affected investors' expectations about asset risk, returns, and volatility and how these expectations related to asset choice. Respondents were provided with the names of 16 domestic and foreign investment options, with 10-year historical return information for these options, or with both. Historical returns were presented either as a bar graph of returns per year or as a continuous density distribution. Provision of asset names allowed for the investigation of the mechanisms underlying the home bias in investment choice and other asset familiarity effects. Respondents provided their expectations of future returns, volatility, and expected risk, and indicated the options they would choose to invest in. Expected returns closely resembled historical expected values. Risk and volatility perceptions both varied significantly as a function of the type and format of information, but in different ways. Expected returns and perceived risk, not predicted volatility, predicted portfolio decisions.

Connecting Expectations and Values: Students' Perceptions of Developmental Mathematics in a Computer-Based Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Karen Latrice Terrell

2014-01-01

Students' perceptions influence their expectations and values. According to Expectations and Values Theory of Achievement Motivation (EVT-AM), students' expectations and values impact their behaviors (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002). This study seeks to find students' perceptions of developmental mathematics in a mastery learning computer-based…

The equivalence of two phylogenetic biodiversity measures: the Shapley value and Fair Proportion index.

PubMed

Hartmann, Klaas

2013-11-01

Most biodiversity conservation programs are forced to prioritise species in order to allocate their funding. This paper contains a mathematical proof that provides biological support for one common approach based on phylogenetic indices. Phylogenetic trees describe the evolutionary relationships between a group of taxa. Two indices for computing the distinctiveness of each taxon in a phylogenetic tree are considered here-the Shapley value and the Fair Proportion index. These indices provide a measure of the importance of each taxon for overall biodiversity and have been used to prioritise taxa for conservation. The Shapley value is the biodiversity contribution a taxon is expected to make if all taxa are equally likely to become extinct. This interpretation makes it appealing to use the Shapley value in biodiversity conservation applications. The Fair Proportion index lacks a convenient interpretation, however it is significantly easier to calculate and understand. It has been empirically observed that there is a high correlation between the two indices. This paper shows the mathematical basis for this correlation and proves that as the number of taxa increases, the indices become equivalent. Consequently in biodiversity prioritisation the simpler Fair Proportion index can be used whilst retaining the appealing interpretation of the Shapley value.

Developmental changes and gender effects on motivational constructs based on the expectancy-value model in Czech and United States students regarding learning of science, mathematics, and other subjects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Eun-Mi

This study employed American and Czech student samples to investigate the motivational constructs used in Eccles and Wigfield's (1983) expectancy-value model. To predict achievement behavior, the model specifies relationships among expectancy for-success and task value, task-specific self-concept, perception of task-difficulty, perceptions of social environment, and interpretations and attributions for past events in relation to the social world. Czech and American students (n = 1,145) in grades 4--12 were the participants in this study. The causal relationships among the constructs were tested to investigate structural similarities and differences in the models for both countries. This study also explored developmental changes, gender, and national differences in the students' motivational beliefs for these motivational constructs: Expectancy for Success, Intrinsic Interest Value, Task-specific Self-concept, Perception of Task-difficulty, and Perceived Vocational Gender Dominance for science, mathematics, and other school subjects. The findings indicated that, for both countries, with respect to changes over grade level, compared to the younger students, the older students showed lower motivational beliefs for most subject areas except reading. However, the Czech students in grades 6--8 showed more positive motivational beliefs in life science and social studies than did the Czech students in other grade levels. In comparing genders, the male students exhibited more positive motivational beliefs in physical science than did the female students, and female students showed more positive motivational beliefs in reading than did the male students. For life science, the Czech female students rated Intrinsic Interest Value and Task-specific Self-concept higher than did their peer male students. The American students' motivational beliefs in reading were more positive than were Czech students', and the Czech students held more positive motivational beliefs in life science than did the American students. With minor variations for each country, the expectancy-value model provided a reasonable tool for understanding the causal relationships among the motivational beliefs. For the Czech sample, Perception of Task-difficulty was a strong negative predictor for Expectancy for Success for most school subjects except life science whereas, for the American sample, it was a weak but significant negative predictor for Intrinsic Interest Value for most school subjects except social studies. Implications for science education are discussed.

Personal and Environmental Influences on Students' Beliefs about Effective Study Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nolen, Susan Bobbitt; Haladyna, Thomas M.

1990-01-01

A model of personal and environmental influences on students' valuing of two deep-processing strategies for studying expository texts is described. Questionnaire data from 281 high school science students indicated that students' task orientation and perceptions about teacher expectations were central to students' attitudes. (TJH)

Probability Distributions of Minkowski Distances between Discrete Random Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schroger, Erich; And Others

1993-01-01

Minkowski distances are used to indicate similarity of two vectors in an N-dimensional space. How to compute the probability function, the expectation, and the variance for Minkowski distances and the special cases City-block distance and Euclidean distance. Critical values for tests of significance are presented in tables. (SLD)

Agencies within communities, communities within ecosystems

Treesearch

Jane Kapler Smith; Kerry McMenus

2000-01-01

Can scientific information and intensive, extensive public involvement through facilitated meetings be expected to lead to agreement on natural resource issues? Communications and research in the Bitterroot Ecosystem Management Research Project indicate that, where people’s values differ greatly, consensus is not a realistic goal for short term planning processes....

Factors related to clinician attitudes toward prolonged exposure therapy for PTSD.

PubMed

Ruzek, Josef I; Eftekhari, Afsoon; Rosen, Craig S; Crowley, Jill J; Kuhn, Eric; Foa, Edna B; Hembree, Elizabeth A; Karlin, Bradley E

2014-08-01

This study examines pretraining attitudes toward prolonged exposure (PE) therapy in a sample of 1,275 mental health clinicians enrolled in a national PE training program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Attitudes assessed via survey included values placed on outcomes targeted by PE, outcome expectancies (positive expectancies for patient improvement and negative expectancies related to patient deterioration, clinician time burden, and clinician emotional burden), and self-efficacy for delivering PE. Results indicated that clinicians were receptive to learning PE and had positive expectations about the treatment, but expressed concerns that PE might increase patient distress. Responses varied by clinician characteristics with psychologists, clinicians working in specialty PTSD treatment settings (as opposed to those in mental health clinics and other clinic types), and those with a primarily cognitive-behavioral orientation expressing attitudes that were most supportive of learning and implementing PE across various indicators. Implications for addressing attitudinal barriers to implementation of PE therapy are discussed. Published 2014. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Probing for the Multiplicative Term in Modern Expectancy-Value Theory: A Latent Interaction Modeling Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trautwein, Ulrich; Marsh, Herbert W.; Nagengast, Benjamin; Ludtke, Oliver; Nagy, Gabriel; Jonkmann, Kathrin

2012-01-01

In modern expectancy-value theory (EVT) in educational psychology, expectancy and value beliefs additively predict performance, persistence, and task choice. In contrast to earlier formulations of EVT, the multiplicative term Expectancy x Value in regression-type models typically plays no major role in educational psychology. The present study…

Sentiment of Search: KM and IT for User Expectations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Sarah Ann; Meza, David

2014-01-01

User perceived value is the number one indicator of a successful implementation of KM and IT collaborations. The system known as "Search" requires more strategy and workflow that a mere data dump or ungoverned infrastructure can provide. Monitoring of user sentiment can be a driver for providing objective measures of success and justifying changes to the user interface. The dynamic nature of information technology makes traditional usability metrics difficult to identify, yet easy to argue against. There is little disagreement, however, on the criticality of adapting to user needs and expectations. The Systems Usability Scale (SUS), developed by John Brook in 1986 has become an industry standard for usability engineering. The first phase of a modified SUS, polls the sentiment of representative users of the JSC Search system. This information can be used to correlate user determined value with types of information sought and how the system is (or is not) meeting expectations. Sentiment analysis by way of the SUS assists an organization in identification and prioritization of the KM and IT variables impacting user perceived value. A secondary, user group focused analysis is the topic of additional work that demonstrates the impact of specific changes dictated by user sentiment.

Using the Inflection Points and Rates of Growth and Decay to Predict Levels of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

The ascending and descending inflection points and rates of growth and decay at specific times during the sunspot cycle are examined as predictors for future activity. On average, the ascending inflection point occurs about 1-2 yr after sunspot minimum amplitude (Rm) and the descending inflection point occurs about 6-7 yr after Rm. The ascending inflection point and the inferred slope (including the 12-mo moving average (12-mma) of (Delta)R (the month-to-month change in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number (R)) at the ascending inflection point provide strong indications as to the expected size of the ongoing cycle s sunspot maximum amplitude (RM), while the descending inflection point appears to provide an indication as to the expected length of the ongoing cycle. The value of the 12-mma of (Delta)R at elapsed time T = 27 mo past the epoch of RM (E(RM)) seems to provide a strong indication as to the expected size of Rm for the following cycle. The expected Rm for cycle 24 is 7.6 +/- 4.4 (the 90-percent prediction interval), occurring before September 2008. Evidence is also presented for secular rises in selected cycle-related parameters and for preferential grouping of sunspot cycles by amplitude and/or period.

An exploratory study on the relationship between parents' passion for sport/exercise and children's self- and task-perceptions in sport/exercise.

PubMed

Chen, Chen-Yueh

2014-06-01

This study investigated the relationship between parents' passion for sport/exercise and children's self- and task-perceptions in sport and exercise. Paired samples of 312 children, 312 fathers, and 312 mothers were collected using two-stage sampling; parents were classified based on their passion for sport and exercise as high concordance if both parents had a high passion for sport and exercise, low concordance if neither parent had a passion for sport and exercise, or discordant. Intrinsic interest value, attainment value/importance, extrinsic utility value, ability/expectancy, task difficulty, and required effort were measured, as well as harmonious and obsessive passion. Children's self- and task-perceptions in sport and exercise were examined with respect to parents' passion for sport and exercise. The results of the study indicated that children of parents with high concordance in harmonious passion for sport and exercise scored higher on intrinsic interest value, attainment value/importance, extrinsic utility value, ability/expectancy, task difficulty, and required effort in sport and exercise than counterparts with discordant and low concordance parents. Similar patterns were found for obsessive passion in parents.

Patients With Thumb Carpometacarpal Arthritis Have Quantifiable Characteristic Expectations That Can Be Measured With a Survey.

PubMed

Kang, Lana; Hashmi, Sohaib Z; Nguyen, Joseph; Lee, Steve K; Weiland, Andrew J; Mancuso, Carol A

2016-01-01

Although patient expectations associated with major orthopaedic conditions have shown clinically relevant and variable effects on outcomes, expectations associated with thumb carpometacarpal (CMC) arthritis have not been identified, described, or analyzed before, to our knowledge. We asked: (1) Do patients with thumb CMC arthritis express characteristic expectations that are quantifiable and have measurable frequency? (2) Can a survey on expectations developed from patient-derived data quantitate expectations in patients with thumb CMC arthritis? The study was a prospective cohort study. The first phase was a 12-month-period involving interviews of 42 patients with thumb CMC arthritis to define their expectations of treatment. The interview process used techniques and principles of qualitative methodology including open-ended interview questions, unrestricted time, and study size determined by data saturation. Verbatim responses provided content for the draft survey. The second phase was a 12-month period assessing the survey for test-retest reliability with the recruitment of 36 participants who completed the survey twice. The survey was finalized from clinically relevant content, frequency of endorsement, weighted kappa values for concordance of responses, and intraclass coefficient and Cronbach's alpha for interrater reliability and internal consistency. Thirty-two patients volunteered 256 characteristic expectations, which consisted of 21 discrete categories. Expectations with similar concepts were combined by eliminating redundancy while maintaining original terminology. These were reduced to 19 items that comprised a one-page survey. This survey showed high concordance, interrater reliability, and internal consistency, with weighted kappa values between 0.58 and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.39-0.78; p < 0.001); intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98; p < 0.001), and Cronbach's alpha values of 0.94 and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.91-0.96; p < 0.001). The thumb CMC arthritis expectations survey score is convertible to an overall score between 0 to 100 points calculated on the basis of the number of expectations and the degree of improvement expected, with higher scores indicating higher expectations. Patients with thumb CMC arthritis volunteer a characteristic and quantifiable set of expectations. Using responses recorded verbatim from patient interviews, a clinically relevant, valid, and reliable expectations survey was developed that measures the physical and psychosocial expectations of patients seeking treatment for CMC arthritis. The survey provides a calculable score that can record patients' expectations. Clinical application of this survey includes identification of factors that influence fulfilment of these expectations. Level II, prospective study.

Variations on an Expectancy-Value Model of Motivation in Science.

PubMed

DeBacker; Nelson

1999-04-01

Relationships among motivational variables from goal theory and expectancy-value theory were investigated in this correlational study of high school students. Self-report surveys of motivation in science were collected during biology classes from 69 males and 80 females. Outcome measures were effort, persistence, and achievement. Gender differences were noted in the pattern of zero-order correlations. Internal motivation variables were related to achievement in males but not females. Regression analyses indicated that the motivation variables explained large proportions of variance in the outcomes. However, the contribution of individual variables differed by gender. Most notable was perceived ability, which contributed significantly to predicting outcome measures for females but not males. Findings suggest that interventions may need to focus on different motivational aspects depending on gender. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

PubMed

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

Canadian Nurse Graduates considering Migrating Abroad for Work: Are Their Expectations Being Met in Canada?

PubMed

Freeman, Michelle; Beaulieu, Lizette; Crawley, Jamie

2015-12-01

An RN credential has been called "a ticket to the world." Canadian RNs have been active participants in migration, especially to the United States. In an increasingly globally oriented world, Canadian nurse graduates have many employment options. The purpose of this study was to explore the job values and expectations of baccalaureate nursing students who indicated they were considering migrating for work abroad for their first job and to explore their confidence in having these values met in Canada compared to another country. This was a quantitative study guided by the Value-Expectancy Framework. Data were collected through a Web-based self-report survey and analyzed using descriptive statistics for sample characteristics and t tests for comparison. Nonprobability convenience sampling of graduating baccalaureate nursing students from a Canadian border region was used. Of 130 respondents, 92 (70.8%) indicated that they were considering migrating from Canada for work. Respondents believed that working abroad would provide more adventure, full-time work, professional development, appropriate staffing, flexible scheduling, and freedom to choose their preferred job sector/specialty. The authors conclude that there is a need to study nursing graduates' labour mobility both within and outside of Canada and the factors that influence their decision-making and to address the factors that encourage them to leave Canada. Human resource planning will become increasingly important given the predicted nursing shortage and changes to nurse licensure in Canada with the potential to influence migration. Copyright© by Ingram School of Nursing, McGill University.

Promoting Physical Activity in Hong Kong Chinese Young People: Factors Influencing Their Subjective Task Values and Expectancy Beliefs in Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pang, Bonnie

2014-01-01

According to Eccles et al.'s (1983) Expectancy Value Model, the two major constructs that influence young people's activity choice are subjective task value and expectancy beliefs (Eccles et al., 1983). Eccles et al. (1983) conceptually distinguished four dimensions of subjective task value: attainment value, intrinsic value, utility value and…

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R

2007-01-01

The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

Return to Gender: Boys' and Girls' Attitudes and Achievements.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Ann; Trafford, John

1996-01-01

Examines factors having a bearing on boy/girl performance in second-language classes in the United Kingdom. Findings indicate that boys attach less importance to learning a foreign language than girls do; girls are more conscientious about their schoolwork than boys are; expectations for boys and girls are different; and students value the…

Reply to Kohn

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wright, James D.; Wright, Sonia R.

1976-01-01

Argues that their paper is almost entirely programmatic: It attempts to indicate roughly how much we can expect to know about parental values for children once we know all there is to know about their relationship to social class; how much more might be known if similar efforts were expended on other factors; and what lines of inquiry these…

Fast response of Scots pine to improved water availability reflected in tree-ring width and delta 13C.

PubMed

Eilmann, Britta; Buchmann, Nina; Siegwolf, Rolf; Saurer, Matthias; Cherubini, Paolo; Rigling, Andreas

2010-08-01

Drought-induced forest decline, like the Scots pine mortality in inner-Alpine valleys, will gain in importance as the frequency and severity of drought events are expected to increase. To understand how chronic drought affects tree growth and tree-ring delta(13)C values, we studied mature Scots pine in an irrigation experiment in an inner-Alpine valley. Tree growth and isotope analyses were carried out at the annual and seasonal scale. At the seasonal scale, maximum delta(13)C values were measured after the hottest and driest period of the year, and were associated with decreasing growth rates. Inter-annual delta(13)C values in early- and latewood showed a strong correlation with annual climatic conditions and an immediate decrease as a response to irrigation. This indicates a tight coupling between wood formation and the freshly produced assimilates for trees exposed to chronic drought. This rapid appearance of the isotopic signal is a strong indication for an immediate and direct transfer of newly synthesized assimilates for biomass production. The fast appearance and the distinct isotopic signal suggest a low availability of old stored carbohydrates. If this was a sign for C-storage depletion, an increasing mortality could be expected when stressors increase the need for carbohydrate for defence, repair or regeneration.

Pressurizing the STEM Pipeline: an Expectancy-Value Theory Analysis of Youths' STEM Attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, Christopher; Huang, Kuo-Ting; Cotten, Shelia R.; Rikard, R. V.

2017-08-01

Over the past decade, there has been a strong national push to increase minority students' positive attitudes towards STEM-related careers. However, despite this focus, minority students have remained underrepresented in these fields. Some researchers have directed their attention towards improving the STEM pipeline which carries students through our educational system and into STEM careers. Previous research has shown that expectancy-value theory (EVT) is useful for examining the short-term as well as long-term academic motivations and intentions of elementary age minority students. These findings provide insights into ways we may be able to potentially "patch" particular STEM pipeline leaks. In the current study, we advance this research by using EVT as a framework to examine the STEM attitudes of young students directly. We hypothesize that students' academic-related expectancies for success and subjective task values will be associated with an increase in STEM attitudes. Data for this study was gathered over the course of a large-scale computing intervention which sought to increase students' STEM interest. This computing intervention took place in an urban elementary school district located within the southeastern USA. Results from this study indicate that both intrinsic values and utility values predict students' STEM attitudes but they influence attitudes related to the various dimensions of STEM differently. These findings demonstrate that EVT provides a useful framework, which can be integrated into future computing interventions, to help encourage positive STEM attitudes in young children, thus increasing the internal pressure (or flow) within the STEM pipeline.

A comparison of positive and negative alcohol expectancy and value and their multiplicative composite as predictors of post-treatment abstinence survivorship.

PubMed

Jones, B T; McMahon, J

1996-01-01

Within social learning theory, positive alcohol expectancies represent motivation to drink and negative expectancies, motivation to restrain. It is also recognized that a subjective evaluation of expectancies ought to moderate their impact, although the evidence for this in social drinkers is problematic. This paper addresses the speculation that the moderating effect will be more evident in clinical populations. This study shows that (i) both expectancy and value reliably, independently and equally predict clients' abstinence survivorship following discharge from a treatment programme (and that this is almost entirely confined to the negative rather than positive terms). When (ii) expectancy evaluations are processed against expectancy through multiplicative composites (i.e. expectancy x value), their predictive power is only equivalent to either expectancy or value on its own. However (iii) when the multiplicative composite is assessed following the statistical guidelines advocated by Evans (1991) (i.e. within the same model as its constituents, expectancy and value) the increase in outcome variance explained by its inclusion is negligible and casts doubt upon its use in alcohol research. This does not appear to apply to value, however, and its possible role in treatment is discussed.

A new graphite preparation line for AMS 14C dating in the Zagreb Radiocarbon Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krajcar Bronić, I.; Horvatinčić, N.; Sironić, A.; Obelić, B.; Barešić, J.; Felja, I.

2010-04-01

The new line for preparation of graphite samples for 14C dating by AMS has been constructed in the Zagreb Radiocarbon Laboratory. The performance of the rig and sample preparation procedure has been validated by preparing graphites from various reference materials of known 14C activity. The yield of the graphitization was good and the measured fraction of modern carbon ( Fm) values have not significantly deviated from the expected ones. Detailed analysis of measured Fm values indicates a slight bias to more positive values and should be carefully investigated.

Driver's mental workload prediction model based on physiological indices.

PubMed

Yan, Shengyuan; Tran, Cong Chi; Wei, Yingying; Habiyaremye, Jean Luc

2017-09-15

Developing an early warning model to predict the driver's mental workload (MWL) is critical and helpful, especially for new or less experienced drivers. The present study aims to investigate the correlation between new drivers' MWL and their work performance, regarding the number of errors. Additionally, the group method of data handling is used to establish the driver's MWL predictive model based on subjective rating (NASA task load index [NASA-TLX]) and six physiological indices. The results indicate that the NASA-TLX and the number of errors are positively correlated, and the predictive model shows the validity of the proposed model with an R 2 value of 0.745. The proposed model is expected to provide a reference value for the new drivers of their MWL by providing the physiological indices, and the driving lesson plans can be proposed to sustain an appropriate MWL as well as improve the driver's work performance.

Decisions on Further Research for Predictive Biomarkers of High-Dose Alkylating Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Value of Information Analysis.

PubMed

Miquel-Cases, Anna; Retèl, Valesca P; van Harten, Wim H; Steuten, Lotte M G

2016-06-01

To inform decisions about the design and priority of further studies of emerging predictive biomarkers of high-dose alkylating chemotherapy (HDAC) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) using value-of-information analysis. A state transition model compared treating women with TNBC with current clinical practice and four biomarker strategies to personalize HDAC: 1) BRCA1-like profile by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) testing; 2) BRCA1-like profile by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) testing; 3) strategy 1 followed by X-inactive specific transcript gene (XIST) and tumor suppressor p53 binding protein (53BP1) testing; and 4) strategy 2 followed by XIST and 53BP1 testing, from a Dutch societal perspective and a 20-year time horizon. Input data came from literature and expert opinions. We assessed the expected value of partial perfect information, the expected value of sample information, and the expected net benefit of sampling for potential ancillary studies of an ongoing randomized controlled trial (RCT; NCT01057069). The expected value of partial perfect information indicated that further research should be prioritized to the parameter group including "biomarkers' prevalence, positive predictive value (PPV), and treatment response rates (TRRs) in biomarker-negative patients and patients with TNBC" (€639 million), followed by utilities (€48 million), costs (€40 million), and transition probabilities (TPs) (€30 million). By setting up four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT, data on 1) TP and MLPA prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 2) aCGH and aCGH/MLPA plus XIST and 53BP1 prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 3) utilities; and 4) costs could be simultaneously collected (optimal size = 3000). Further research on predictive biomarkers for HDAC should focus on gathering data on TPs, prevalence, PPV, TRRs, utilities, and costs from the four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Baseline water-quality sampling to infer nutrient and contaminant sources at Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park, Island of Hawai‘i, 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Charles D.

2015-01-01

Some fraction of septic leachate is expected in groundwater because there are unsewered suburban and commercial developments upslope from the Park that rely on cesspools and septic systems. However, stable isotopes of nitrate did not implicate septic-waste nitrogen (heavy δ15N values on the order of +10 per mil or greater). Instead, the heaviest δ15N values of +6 to +8 per mil were associated with the large fishponds, likely as a result of biotic cycling. Water samples with δ15N values of +3 to +5 per mil were still isotopically heavier than the upland groundwater value of +2 per mil and likely reflect addition of heavier nitrogen, possibly from septic sources, nitrogen-fixing vegetation, or vehicular exhaust. Pharmaceuticals, wastewater compounds, and volatile organic compounds indicated that if contamination is present, it appears to be at low, barely detectable, levels--at least as reflected by the results of this study. The most diagnostic indication of septic contamination was at monitoring well KAHO 2, closest to Kaloko Light Industrial Park, where three pharmaceuticals (carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole, and thiobendazole) were detected at trace-level parts-per-trillion concentrations. A screening-level test for laundry fabric brighteners indicated positive detection at most sites; however, readings were quite low and if laundry graywater is present, it appears to be a small, dilute fraction. Because the weather was persistently dry throughout the study period, the USGS team was unable to conduct a wet-weather “storm” sampling. Wet-weather results are expected to differ from those reported here, though by how much remains unknown.

Child Characteristics and Parental Educational Expectations: Evidence for Transmission with Transaction

PubMed Central

Briley, Daniel A.; Harden, K. Paige; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

2014-01-01

Parents’ expectations for their children’s ultimate educational attainment have been hypothesized to play an instrumental role in socializing academically-relevant child behaviors, beliefs, and abilities. In addition to social transmission of educationally relevant values from parents to children, parental expectations and child characteristics may transact bidirectionally. We explore this hypothesis using both longitudinal and genetically informative twin data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study –Birth and Kindergarten cohorts. Our behavior genetic results indicate that parental expectations partly reflect child genetic variation, even as early as 4 years of age. Two classes of child characteristics were hypothesized to contribute to these child-to-parent effects: behavioral tendencies (approaches toward learning and problem behaviors) and achievement (math and reading). Using behavior genetic models, we find within-twin-pair associations between these child characteristics and parental expectations. Using longitudinal cross-lagged models, we find that initial variation in child characteristics predicts future educational expectations above and beyond previous educational expectations. These results are consistent with transactional frameworks in which parent-to-child and child-to-parent effects co-occur. PMID:25285965

Child characteristics and parental educational expectations: evidence for transmission with transaction.

PubMed

Briley, Daniel A; Harden, K Paige; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M

2014-12-01

Parents' expectations for their children's ultimate educational attainment have been hypothesized to play an instrumental role in socializing academically relevant child behaviors, beliefs, and abilities. In addition to social transmission of educationally relevant values from parents to children, parental expectations and child characteristics may transact bidirectionally. We explore this hypothesis using both longitudinal and genetically informative twin data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth and Kindergarten cohorts. Our behavior genetic results indicate that parental expectations partly reflect child genetic variation, even as early as 4 years of age. Two classes of child characteristics were hypothesized to contribute to these child-to-parent effects: behavioral tendencies (approaches toward learning and problem behaviors) and achievement (math and reading). Using behavior genetic models, we find within-twin-pair associations between these child characteristics and parental expectations. Using longitudinal cross-lagged models, we find that initial variation in child characteristics predicts future educational expectations above and beyond previous educational expectations. These results are consistent with transactional frameworks in which parent-to-child and child-to-parent effects co-occur. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Values and depressive symptoms in American Indian youth of the Northern Plains: examining the potential moderating roles of outcome expectancies and perceived community values.

PubMed

Mousseau, Alicia C; Scott, Walter D; Estes, David

2014-03-01

Very little is known about processes contributing to depressive experiences in American Indian youth. We explored the relationship between value priorities and depressive symptoms among 183 (65% female) American Indian youth in grades 9-12. In addition, two potential moderators of this relationship were examined: value outcome expectations (i.e., whether one expects that values will be realized or not) and perceived community values. We found that American Indian youth who endorsed higher levels of tradition/benevolence values reported fewer depressive symptoms. However, the relationship between endorsing power/materialism values and depressive symptoms depended on the extent to which youth perceived their communities as valuing power/materialism. Finally, value outcome expectancies appeared to relate more strongly to depressive symptoms than did value priorities. Overall, these findings support tribal community efforts to impart tradition/benevolence values to American Indian youth but also emphasize the importance of attending to value outcome expectations and the perceived values of the community in understanding American Indian youth's depressive experiences.

Evaluation of Genetic Diversity, Population Structure, and Relationship Between Legendary Vechur Cattle and Crossbred Cattle of Kerala State, India.

PubMed

Radhika, G; Aravindakshan, T V; Jinty, S; Ramya, K

2018-01-02

The legendary Vechur cattle of Kerala, described as a very short breed, and the crossbred (CB) Sunandini cattle population exhibited great phenotypic variation; hence, the present study attempted to analyze the genetic diversity existing between them. A set of 14 polymorphic microsatellites were chosen from FAO-ISAG panel and amplified from genomic DNA isolated from blood samples of 30 Vechur and 64 unrelated crossbred cattle, using fluorescent labeled primers. Both populations revealed high genetic diversity as evidenced from high observed number of alleles, Polymorphic Information Content and expected heterozygosity. Observed heterozygosity was lesser (0.699) than expected (0.752) in Vechur population which was further supported by positive F IS value of 0.1149, indicating slight level of inbreeding in Vechur population. Overall, F ST value was 0.065, which means genetic differentiation between crossbred and Vechur population was 6.5%, indicating that the crossbred cattle must have differentiated into a definite population that is different from the indigenous Vechur cows. Structure analysis indicated that the two populations showed distinct differences, with two underlying clusters. The present study supports the separation between Taurine and Zebu cattle and throws light onto the genetic diversity and relationship between native Vechur and crossbred cattle populations in Kerala state.

Discrete coding of stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error in the dorsal striatum.

PubMed

Oyama, Kei; Tateyama, Yukina; Hernádi, István; Tobler, Philippe N; Iijima, Toshio; Tsutsui, Ken-Ichiro

2015-11-01

To investigate how the striatum integrates sensory information with reward information for behavioral guidance, we recorded single-unit activity in the dorsal striatum of head-fixed rats participating in a probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning task with auditory conditioned stimuli (CSs) in which reward probability was fixed for each CS but parametrically varied across CSs. We found that the activity of many neurons was linearly correlated with the reward probability indicated by the CSs. The recorded neurons could be classified according to their firing patterns into functional subtypes coding reward probability in different forms such as stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error. These results suggest that several functional subgroups of dorsal striatal neurons represent different kinds of information formed through extensive prior exposure to CS-reward contingencies. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Discrete coding of stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error in the dorsal striatum

PubMed Central

Oyama, Kei; Tateyama, Yukina; Hernádi, István; Tobler, Philippe N.; Iijima, Toshio

2015-01-01

To investigate how the striatum integrates sensory information with reward information for behavioral guidance, we recorded single-unit activity in the dorsal striatum of head-fixed rats participating in a probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning task with auditory conditioned stimuli (CSs) in which reward probability was fixed for each CS but parametrically varied across CSs. We found that the activity of many neurons was linearly correlated with the reward probability indicated by the CSs. The recorded neurons could be classified according to their firing patterns into functional subtypes coding reward probability in different forms such as stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error. These results suggest that several functional subgroups of dorsal striatal neurons represent different kinds of information formed through extensive prior exposure to CS-reward contingencies. PMID:26378201

The economic value of innovative treatments over the product life cycle: the case of targeted trastuzumab therapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Garrison, Louis P; Veenstra, David L

2009-01-01

Pharmacoeconomic analyses typically project the expected cost-effectiveness of a new product for a specific indication. This analysis develops a dynamic life-cycle model to conduct a multi-indication evaluation using the case of trastuzumab licensed in the United States for both early-stage and metastatic (or late-stage) human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer therapy (early breast cancer [EBC]; metastatic breast cancer [MBC]), approved in 2006 and 1998, respectively. This dynamic model combined information on expected incremental cost-utility ratios for specific indications with an epidemiologically based projection of utilization by indication over the product life cycle-from 1998 to 2016. Net economic value was estimated as the cumulative quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained over the life cycle multiplied by a societal valuation of health gains ($/QALY) minus cumulative net direct treatment costs. Sensitivity analyses were performed under a range of assumptions. We projected that the annual number of EBC patients receiving trastuzumab will be more than three times that of MBC by 2016, in part because adjuvant treatment reduces the future incidence of MBC. Over this life cycle, the estimated overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $35,590/QALY with a total of 432,547 discounted QALYs gained. Under sensitivity analyses, the overall ICER varied from $21,000 to $53,000/QALY, and the projected net economic value resulting from trastuzumab treatment ranged from $6.2 billion to $49.5 billion. Average ICERs for multi-indication compounds can increase or decrease over the product life cycle. In this example, the projected overall life-cycle ICER for trastuzumab was less than one half of that in the initial indication. This dynamic perspective-versus the usual static one-highlights the interdependence of drug development decisions and investment incentives, raising important reimbursement policy issues.

Choices in recreational water quality monitoring: new opportunities and health risk trade-offs.

PubMed

Nevers, Meredith B; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara N; Whitman, Richard L

2013-04-02

With the recent release of new recreational water quality monitoring criteria, there are more options for regulatory agencies seeking to protect beachgoers from waterborne pathogens. Included are methods that can reduce analytical time, providing timelier estimates of water quality, but the application of these methods has not been examined at most beaches for expectation of health risk and management decisions. In this analysis, we explore health and monitoring outcomes expected at Lake Michigan beaches using protocols for indicator bacteria including culturable Escherichia coli (E. coli; EC), culturable enterococci (ENT), and enterococci as analyzed by qPCR (QENT). Correlations between method results were generally high, except at beaches with historically high concentrations of EC. The "beach action value" was exceeded most often when using EC or ENT as the target indicator; QENT exceeded the limit far less frequently. Measured water quality between years was varied. Although methods with equivalent health expectation have been established, the lack of relationship among method outcomes and annual changes in mean indicator bacteria concentrations complicates the decision-making process. The monitoring approach selected by beach managers may be a combination of available tools that maximizes timely health protection, cost efficiency, and collaboration among beach jurisdictions.

Effort-based cost-benefit valuation and the human brain

PubMed Central

Croxson, Paula L; Walton, Mark E; O'Reilly, Jill X; Behrens, Timothy EJ; Rushworth, Matthew FS

2010-01-01

In both the wild and the laboratory, animals' preferences for one course of action over another reflect not just reward expectations but also the cost in terms of effort that must be invested in pursuing the course of action. The ventral striatum and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACCd) are implicated in the making of cost-benefit decisions in the rat but there is little information about how effort costs are processed and influence calculations of expected net value in other mammals including the human. We carried out a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study to determine whether and where activity in the human brain was available to guide effort-based cost-benefit valuation. Subjects were scanned while they performed a series of effortful actions to obtain secondary reinforcers. At the beginning of each trial, subjects were presented with one of eight different visual cues which they had learned indicated how much effort the course of action would entail and how much reward could be expected at its completion. Cue-locked activity in the ventral striatum and midbrain reflected the net value of the course of action, signaling the expected amount of reward discounted by the amount of effort to be invested. Activity in ACCd also reflected the interaction of both expected reward and effort costs. Posterior orbitofrontal and insular activity, however, only reflected the expected reward magnitude. The ventral striatum and anterior cingulate cortex may be the substrate of effort-based cost-benefit valuation in primates as well as in rats. PMID:19357278

Design, implementation, and first-year outcomes of a value-based drug formulary.

PubMed

Sullivan, Sean D; Yeung, Kai; Vogeler, Carol; Ramsey, Scott D; Wong, Edward; Murphy, Chad O; Danielson, Dan; Veenstra, David L; Garrison, Louis P; Burke, Wylie; Watkins, John B

2015-04-01

Value-based insurance design attempts to align drug copayment tier with value rather than cost. Previous implementations of value-based insurance design have lowered copayments for drugs indicated for select "high value" conditions and have found modest improvements in medication adherence. However, these implementations have generally not resulted in cost savings to the health plan, suggesting a need for increased copayments for "low value" drugs. Further, previous implementations have assigned equal copayment reductions to all drugs within a therapeutic area without assessing the value of individual drugs. Aligning the individual drug's copayment to its specific value may yield greater clinical and economic benefits. In 2010, Premera Blue Cross, a large not-for-profit health plan in the Pacific Northwest, implemented a value-based drug formulary (VBF) that explicitly uses cost-effectiveness analyses after safety and efficacy reviews to estimate the value of each individual drug. Concurrently, Premera increased copayments for existing tiers. To describe and evaluate the design, implementation, and first-year outcomes of the VBF. We compared observed pharmacy cost per member per month in the year following the VBF implementation with 2 comparator groups: (1) observed pharmacy costs in the year prior to implementation, and (2) expected costs if no changes were made to the pharmacy benefits. Expected costs were generated by applying autoregressive integrated moving averages to pharmacy costs over the previous 36 months. We used an interrupted time series analysis to assess drug use and adherence among individuals with diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia compared with a group of members in plans that did not implement a VBF.  Pharmacy costs decreased by 3% compared with the 12 months prior and 11% compared with expected costs. There was no significant decline in medication use or adherence to treatments for patients with diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia. The VBF and copayment changes enabled pharmacy plan cost savings without negatively affecting utilization in key disease states.

Evaluating the Value of Information in the Presence of High Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

in this hierarchy is subsumed in the Knowledge and Information layers. If information with high expected value is identified, it then passes up...be, the higher is its value. Based on the idea of expected utility of asking a question [36], Nelson [31] discusses different approaches for...18] formalizes the expected value of a sample of information using the concept of pre-posterior analysis as the expected increase in utility by

Exact finite volume expectation values of \\overline{Ψ}Ψ in the massive Thirring model from light-cone lattice correlators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegedűs, Árpád

2018-03-01

In this paper, using the light-cone lattice regularization, we compute the finite volume expectation values of the composite operator \\overline{Ψ}Ψ between pure fermion states in the Massive Thirring Model. In the light-cone regularized picture, this expectation value is related to 2-point functions of lattice spin operators being located at neighboring sites of the lattice. The operator \\overline{Ψ}Ψ is proportional to the trace of the stress-energy tensor. This is why the continuum finite volume expectation values can be computed also from the set of non-linear integral equations (NLIE) governing the finite volume spectrum of the theory. Our results for the expectation values coming from the computation of lattice correlators agree with those of the NLIE computations. Previous conjectures for the LeClair-Mussardo-type series representation of the expectation values are also checked.

A consumption value-gap analysis for sustainable consumption.

PubMed

Biswas, Aindrila

2017-03-01

Recent studies on consumption behavior have depicted environmental apprehension resulting from across wide consumer segments. However, this has not been widely reflected upon the growth in the market shares for green or environment-friendly products mostly because gaps exist between consumers' expectations and perceptions for those products. Previous studies have highlighted the impact of perceived value on potential demand, consumer satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The necessity to understand the effects of gaps in expected and perceived values on consumers' behavioral intention and potential demand for green products cannot be undermined as it shapes the consumers' inclination to repeated purchase and consumption and thus foster potential market demand. Pertaining to this reason, the study aims to adopt a consumption value-gap model based on the theory of consumption values to assess their impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand of green products. Consumption value refers to the level of fulfillment of consumer needs by assessment of net utility derived after effective comparison between the benefits (financial or emotional) and the gives (money, time, or energy). The larger the gaps the higher will be the adversarial impact on behavioral intentions. A structural equation modeling was applied to assess data collected through questionnaire survey. The results indicate that functional value-gap and environmental value-gap has the most adversarial impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand for green products.

Predicting Success in an Online Course Using Expectancies, Values, and Typical Mode of Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmerman, Whitney Alicia

2017-01-01

Expectancies of success and values were used to predict success in an online undergraduate-level introductory statistics course. Students who identified as primarily face-to-face learners were compared to students who identified as primarily online learners. Expectancy value theory served as a model. Expectancies of success were operationalized as…

Using oxygen isotopes of phosphate to trace phosphorus sources and cycling in lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elsbury, K.E.; Paytan, A.; Ostrom, N.E.; Kendall, C.; Young, M.B.; McLaughlin, K.; Rollog, M.E.; Watson, S.

2009-01-01

Water samples collected during three sampling trips to Lake Erie displayed oxygen isotopic values of dissolved phosphate (??18O p) that were largely out of equilibrium with ambient conditions, indicating that source signatures may be discerned. ??18O p values in the Lake ranged from +10??? to +17???, whereas the equilibrium value was expected to be around +14???. The riverine weighted average ??18Op value was +11??? and may represent one source of phosphate to the Lake. The lake ?? 18Op values indicated that there must be one or more as yet uncharacterized source(s) of phosphate with a high ?? 18Op value. Potential sources other than rivers are not yet well-characterized with respect to ??18O of phosphate, but we speculate that a likely source may be the release of phosphate from sediments under reducing conditions created during anoxic events in the hypolimnion of the central basin of Lake Erie. Identifying potential phosphorus sources to the Lake is vital for designing effective management plans for reducing nutrient inputs and associated eutrophication. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Separate Populations of Neurons in Ventral Striatum Encode Value and Motivation

PubMed Central

Gentry, Ronny N.; Goldstein, Brandon L.; Hearn, Taylor N.; Barnett, Brian R.; Kashtelyan, Vadim; Roesch, Matthew R.

2013-01-01

Neurons in the ventral striatum (VS) fire to cues that predict differently valued rewards. It is unclear whether this activity represents the value associated with the expected reward or the level of motivation induced by reward anticipation. To distinguish between the two, we trained rats on a task in which we varied value independently from motivation by manipulating the size of the reward expected on correct trials and the threat of punishment expected upon errors. We found that separate populations of neurons in VS encode expected value and motivation. PMID:23724077

Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

2017-07-01

With low implementation of cost-effective health technologies being a problem in many health systems, it is worth considering the potential effects of research on implementation at the time of health technology assessment. Meaningful and realistic implementation estimates must be of dynamic nature. To extend existing methods for assessing the value of research studies in terms of both reduction of uncertainty and improvement in implementation by considering diffusion based on expert beliefs with and without further research conditional on the strength of evidence. We use expected value of sample information and expected value of specific implementation measure concepts accounting for the effects of specific research studies on implementation and the reduction of uncertainty. Diffusion theory and elicitation of expert beliefs about the shape of diffusion curves inform implementation dynamics. We illustrate use of the resulting dynamic expected value of research in a preterm birth screening technology and results are compared with those from a static analysis. Allowing for diffusion based on expert beliefs had a significant impact on the expected value of research in the case study, suggesting that mistakes are made where static implementation levels are assumed. Incorporating the effects of research on implementation resulted in an increase in the expected value of research compared to the expected value of sample information alone. Assessing the expected value of research in reducing uncertainty and improving implementation dynamics has the potential to complement currently used analyses in health technology assessments, especially in recommendations for further research. The combination of expected value of research, diffusion theory, and elicitation described in this article is an important addition to the existing methods of health technology assessment.

Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

Scientific fraud in 20 falsified anesthesia papers : detection using financial auditing methods.

PubMed

Hein, J; Zobrist, R; Konrad, C; Schuepfer, G

2012-06-01

Data from natural sources show counter-intuitive distribution patterns for the leading digits to the left of the decimal point and the digit 1 is observed more frequently than all other numbers. This pattern, which was first described by Newcomb and later confirmed by Benford, is used in financial and tax auditing to detect fraud. Deviations from the pattern indicate possible falsifications. Anesthesiology journals are affected not only by ghostwriting and plagiarism but also by counterfeiting. In the present study 20 publications in anesthesiology known to be falsified by an author were investigated for irregularities with respect to Benford's law using the χ(2)-test and the Z-test. In the 20 retracted publications an average first-digit frequency of 243.1 (standard deviation SD ± 118.2, range: 30-592) and an average second-digit frequency of 132.3 (SD ± 72.2, range: 15-383) were found. The observed distribution of the first and second digits to the left of the decimal point differed significantly (p< 0.01) from the expected distribution described by Benford. Only the observed absolute frequencies for digits 3, 4 and 5 did not differ significantly from the expected values. In an analysis of each paper 17 out of 20 studies differed significantly from the expected value for the first digit and 18 out of 20 studies varied significantly from the expected value of the second digit. Only one paper did not vary significantly from expected values for the digits to the left of the decimal. For comparison, a meta-analysis using complex mathematical procedures was chosen as a control. The analysis showed a first-digit distribution consistent with the Benford distribution. Thus, the method used in the present study seems to be sensitive for detecting fraud. Additional statements of specificity cannot yet be made as this requires further analysis of data that is definitely not falsified. Future studies exploring conformity might help prevent falsified studies from being published.

Potential benefits from a successful solar thermal program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terasawa, K. L.; Gates, W. R.

1982-01-01

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs.

Who Provides Care? A Prospective Study of Caregiving Among Adult Siblings

PubMed Central

Pillemer, Karl; Suitor, J. Jill

2014-01-01

Purpose: We use data from a longitudinal, within-family study to identify factors that predict which adult siblings assumed caregiving responsibilities to older mothers over a 7-year period. Design and Methods: Data for the study were collected from 139 older mothers at 2 points 7 years apart regarding their expectations and experiences of care from 537 adult children. Results: Children whom mothers identified at T1 as their expected future caregivers were much more likely to provide care when a serious illness occurred. Caregiving offspring were also more likely at T1 to have shared their mothers’ values, lived in proximity, and to be daughters. Implications: The findings indicate the degree to which a mother’s expectations for care predict actual caregiving by that child. Practitioners working with older adults should explore parents’ expectations for future care that involves their adult children. PMID:23840019

Analysis of Composition and Structure of Coastal to Mesopelagic Bacterioplankton Communities in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

King, Gary M.; Smith, Conor B.; Tolar, Bradley; Hollibaugh, James T.

2013-01-01

16S rRNA gene amplicons were pyrosequenced to assess bacterioplankton community composition, diversity, and phylogenetic community structure for 17 stations in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) sampled in March 2010. Statistical analyses showed that samples from depths ≤100 m differed distinctly from deeper samples. SAR 11 α-Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes dominated communities at depths ≤100 m, which were characterized by high α-Proteobacteria/γ-Proteobacteria ratios (α/γ > 1.7). Thaumarchaeota, Firmicutes, and δ-Proteobacteria were relatively abundant in deeper waters, and α/γ ratios were low (<1). Canonical correlation analysis indicated that δ- and γ-Proteobacteria, Thaumarchaeota, and Firmicutes correlated positively with depth; α-Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes correlated positively with temperature and dissolved oxygen; Actinobacteria, β-Proteobacteria, and Verrucomicrobia correlated positively with a measure of suspended particles. Diversity indices did not vary with depth or other factors, which indicated that richness and evenness elements of bacterioplankton communities might develop independently of nGoM physical-chemical variables. Phylogenetic community structure as measured by the net relatedness (NRI) and nearest taxon (NTI) indices also did not vary with depth. NRI values indicated that most of the communities were comprised of OTUs more distantly related to each other in whole community comparisons than expected by chance. NTI values derived from phylogenetic distances of the closest neighbor for each OTU in a given community indicated that OTUs tended to occur in clusters to a greater extent than expected by chance. This indicates that “habitat filtering” might play an important role in nGoM bacterioplankton species assembly, and that such filtering occurs throughout the water column. PMID:23346078

Expect the best, prepare for the worst: surgeon and patient expectation of the outcome of primary total hip and knee replacement.

PubMed Central

Moran, M.; Khan, A.; Sochart, D. H.; Andrew, G.

2003-01-01

A cross-sectional study of 100 surgeons and 370 patients awaiting primary total hip or knee replacement was carried out. Oxford hip or knee score questionnaires were sent to the surgeons and patients. They were asked to predict the level of symptoms expected 6 months following surgery. The Oxford scores derive a value of 12-60, with a greater score indicating worsening symptoms. The mean pre-operative score was 45.12 for the hip patients and 42.96 for the knee patients, and the patients expected this to drop to 23.70 and 25.66, respectively, 6 months' postoperatively. This was a significant difference for both groups. The surgeons expected the patients to have a mean postoperative score of 20.91 for the hip group and 22.19 for the knee group. The surgeons' scores were significantly lower than those from the patients. There was a significant difference between the patients' and surgeons' expectations of the results of total knee and hip replacement surgery. The surgeons expected better results than the patients. We believe that this is the first study that directly compares surgeon and patient expectations of lower limb arthroplasty. PMID:12831497

Value of information in natural resource management: technical developments and application to pink-footed geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2015-01-01

The “value of information” (VOI) is a generic term for the increase in value resulting from better information to guide management, or alternatively, the value foregone under uncertainty about the impacts of management (Yokota and Thompson, Medical Decision Making 2004;24: 287). The value of information can be characterized in terms of several metrics, including the expected value of perfect information and the expected value of partial information. We extend the technical framework for the value of information by further developing the relationship between value metrics for partial and perfect information and describing patterns of their performance. We use two different expressions for the expected value of partial information to highlight its relationship to the expected value of perfect information. We also develop the expected value of partial information for hierarchical uncertainties. We highlight patterns in the value of information for the Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus), a population that is subject to uncertainty in both reproduction and survival functions. The framework for valuing information is seen as having widespread potential in resource decision making, and serves as a motivation for resource monitoring, assessment, and collaboration.

Understanding Students' Motivation in Sport and Physical Education: From the Expectancy-Value Model and Self-Efficacy Theory Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Lee, Amelia M.; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

2008-01-01

In this article, the roles of individuals' expectancy beliefs and incentives (i.e., task value, outcome expectancy) in sport and physical education are examined from expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory perspectives. Overviews of the two theoretical frameworks and the conceptual and measurement issues are provided, followed by a review…

Intelligibility for Binaural Speech with Discarded Low-SNR Speech Components.

PubMed

Schoenmaker, Esther; van de Par, Steven

2016-01-01

Speech intelligibility in multitalker settings improves when the target speaker is spatially separated from the interfering speakers. A factor that may contribute to this improvement is the improved detectability of target-speech components due to binaural interaction in analogy to the Binaural Masking Level Difference (BMLD). This would allow listeners to hear target speech components within specific time-frequency intervals that have a negative SNR, similar to the improvement in the detectability of a tone in noise when these contain disparate interaural difference cues. To investigate whether these negative-SNR target-speech components indeed contribute to speech intelligibility, a stimulus manipulation was performed where all target components were removed when local SNRs were smaller than a certain criterion value. It can be expected that for sufficiently high criterion values target speech components will be removed that do contribute to speech intelligibility. For spatially separated speakers, assuming that a BMLD-like detection advantage contributes to intelligibility, degradation in intelligibility is expected already at criterion values below 0 dB SNR. However, for collocated speakers it is expected that higher criterion values can be applied without impairing speech intelligibility. Results show that degradation of intelligibility for separated speakers is only seen for criterion values of 0 dB and above, indicating a negligible contribution of a BMLD-like detection advantage in multitalker settings. These results show that the spatial benefit is related to a spatial separation of speech components at positive local SNRs rather than to a BMLD-like detection improvement for speech components at negative local SNRs.

Using the Expectancy-Value Theory of Motivation to Predict Behavioral and Emotional Risk among High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dever, Bridget V.

2016-01-01

Within the expectancy-value framework, much work has been done linking expectancies and task values to academic outcomes such as performance, persistence, and choice. Research on the associations between student motivation (including efficacy and task values) and behavioral and emotional problems, however, is nascent. The present study examined a…

Clues to Ceres' Internal Structure

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-10-26

This frame from an animation shows Ceres as seen by NASA's Dawn spacecraft from its high-altitude mapping orbit at 913 miles (1,470 kilometers) above the surface. The colorful map overlaid at right shows variations in Ceres' gravity field measured by Dawn, and gives scientists hints about the dwarf planet's internal structure. Red colors indicate more positive values, corresponding to a stronger gravitational pull than expected, compared to scientists' pre-Dawn model of Ceres' internal structure; blue colors indicate more negative values, corresponding to a weaker gravitational pull. The animation was created by projecting a map of Ceres onto a rotating sphere. The image scale is about 450 feet (140 meters) per pixel. The animations are available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22083

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

43 CFR 11.84 - Damage determination phase-implementation guidance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... expected present value of the costs of restoration, rehabilitation, replacement, and/or acquisition of... be estimated in the form of an expected present value dollar amount. In order to perform this... estimate is the expected present value of uses obtained through restoration, rehabilitation, replacement...

Probability Weighting Functions Derived from Hyperbolic Time Discounting: Psychophysical Models and Their Individual Level Testing.

PubMed

Takemura, Kazuhisa; Murakami, Hajime

2016-01-01

A probability weighting function (w(p)) is considered to be a nonlinear function of probability (p) in behavioral decision theory. This study proposes a psychophysical model of probability weighting functions derived from a hyperbolic time discounting model and a geometric distribution. The aim of the study is to show probability weighting functions from the point of view of waiting time for a decision maker. Since the expected value of a geometrically distributed random variable X is 1/p, we formulized the probability weighting function of the expected value model for hyperbolic time discounting as w(p) = (1 - k log p)(-1). Moreover, the probability weighting function is derived from Loewenstein and Prelec's (1992) generalized hyperbolic time discounting model. The latter model is proved to be equivalent to the hyperbolic-logarithmic weighting function considered by Prelec (1998) and Luce (2001). In this study, we derive a model from the generalized hyperbolic time discounting model assuming Fechner's (1860) psychophysical law of time and a geometric distribution of trials. In addition, we develop median models of hyperbolic time discounting and generalized hyperbolic time discounting. To illustrate the fitness of each model, a psychological experiment was conducted to assess the probability weighting and value functions at the level of the individual participant. The participants were 50 university students. The results of individual analysis indicated that the expected value model of generalized hyperbolic discounting fitted better than previous probability weighting decision-making models. The theoretical implications of this finding are discussed.

Citizens' perspectives on personalized medicine: a qualitative public deliberation study.

PubMed

Bombard, Yvonne; Abelson, Julia; Simeonov, Dorina; Gauvin, Francois-Pierre

2013-11-01

Our objective was to explore citizens' informed and reasoned values and expectations of personalized medicine, a timely yet novel genomics policy issue. A qualitative, public deliberation study was undertaken using a citizens' reference panel on health technologies, established to provide input to the health technology assessment process in Ontario, Canada. The citizens' panel consisted of five women and nine men, aged 18-71 years, with one member selected from each health authority region. There were shared expectations among the citizens' panel members for the potential of personalized medicine technologies to improve care, provided they are deemed clinically valid and effective. These expectations were tempered by concerns about value for money and the possibility that access to treatment may be limited by personalized medicine tests used to stratify patients. Although they questioned the presumed technological imperative presented by personalized medicine technologies, they called for increased efforts to prepare the health-care system to effectively integrate these technologies. This study represents an early but important effort to explore public values toward personalized medicine. This study also provides evidence of the public's ability to form coherent judgments about a new policy issue. Concerned that personalized tests might be used to ration care, they suggested that treatment should be made available if patients wanted it, irrespective of tests that indicate little benefit. This issue raises clinical and policy challenges that may undermine the value of personalized medicine. Further efforts to deliberate with the public are warranted to inform effective, efficient and equitable translation of personalized medicine.

Nutrient enrichment and fish nutrient tolerance: Assessing biologically relevant nutrient criteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meador, Michael R.

2013-01-01

Relationships between nutrient concentrations and fish nutrient tolerance were assessed relative to established nutrient criteria. Fish community, nitrate plus nitrite (nitrate), and total phosphorus (TP) data were collected during summer low-flow periods in 2003 and 2004 at stream sites along a nutrient-enrichment gradient in an agricultural basin in Indiana and Ohio and an urban basin in the Atlanta, Georgia, area. Tolerance indicator values for nitrate and TP were assigned for each species and averaged separately for fish communities at each site (TIVo). Models were used to predict fish species expected to occur at a site under minimally disturbed conditions and average tolerance indicator values were determined for nitrate and TP separately for expected communities (TIVe). In both areas, tolerance scores (TIVo/TIVe) for nitrate increased significantly with increased nitrate concentrations whereas no significant relationships were detected between TP tolerance scores and TP concentrations. A 0% increase in the tolerance score (TIVo/TIVe = 1) for nitrate corresponded to a nitrate concentration of 0.19 mg/l (compared with a USEPA summer nitrate criterion of 0.17 mg/l) in the urban area and 0.31 mg/l (compared with a USEPA summer nitrate criterion of 0.86 mg/l) in the agricultural area. Fish nutrient tolerance values offer the ability to evaluate nutrient enrichment based on a quantitative approach that can provide insights into biologically relevant nutrient criteria.

Charting the Eccles' expectancy-value model from mothers' beliefs in childhood to youths' activities in adolescence.

PubMed

Simpkins, Sandra D; Fredricks, Jennifer A; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

2012-07-01

The Eccles' expectancy-value model posits that a cascade of mechanisms explain associations between parents' beliefs and youths' achievement-related behaviors. Specifically, parents' beliefs predict parents' behaviors; in turn, parents' behaviors predict youths' motivational beliefs, and youths' motivational beliefs predict their behaviors. This investigation focused on testing this model with mothers in sports, music, math, and reading over a 12-year period. Data were drawn from mother, youth, and teacher questionnaires collected as part of Childhood and Beyond Study (92% European American; N = 723). Mothers' beliefs in sports, music, and math positively predicted their behaviors in these areas 1 year later, which predicted youths' self-concepts of ability and values (i.e., their motivational beliefs) in these domains 1 year later. Adolescents' motivational beliefs predicted time spent in organized sport activities, playing music, and reading after school measured 4 years later as well as the number of math courses taken in high school. Furthermore, except in reading, mothers' behaviors mediated the relations between mothers' and youths' beliefs, and youths' beliefs mediated the relations between mothers' behaviors and youths' behaviors. Although there were mean-level differences in several indicators based on child gender, in most cases the relations among these indicators did not significantly vary by child gender. This study highlights the processes by which mothers' beliefs during their children's childhood can predict children's activities in adolescence.

Selenium mass balance in the Great Salt Lake, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diaz, X.; Johnson, W.P.; Naftz, D.L.

2009-01-01

A mass balance for Se in the south arm of the Great Salt Lake was developed for September 2006 to August 2007 of monitoring for Se loads and removal flows. The combined removal flows (sedimentation and volatilization) totaled to a geometric mean value of 2079??kg Se/yr, with the estimated low value being 1255??kg Se/yr, and an estimated high value of 3143??kg Se/yr at the 68% confidence level. The total (particulates + dissolved) loads (via runoff) were about 1560??kg Se/yr, for which the error is expected to be ?? 15% for the measured loads. Comparison of volatilization to sedimentation flux demonstrates that volatilization rather than sedimentation is likely the major mechanism of selenium removal from the Great Salt Lake. The measured loss flows balance (within the range of uncertainties), and possibly surpass, the measured annual loads. Concentration histories were modeled using a simple mass balance, which indicated that no significant change in Se concentration was expected during the period of study. Surprisingly, the measured total Se concentration increased during the period of the study, indicating that the removal processes operate at their low estimated rates, and/or there are unmeasured selenium loads entering the lake. The selenium concentration trajectories were compared to those of other trace metals to assess the significance of selenium concentration trends. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Why Contextual Preference Reversals Maximize Expected Value

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Contextual preference reversals occur when a preference for one option over another is reversed by the addition of further options. It has been argued that the occurrence of preference reversals in human behavior shows that people violate the axioms of rational choice and that people are not, therefore, expected value maximizers. In contrast, we demonstrate that if a person is only able to make noisy calculations of expected value and noisy observations of the ordinal relations among option features, then the expected value maximizing choice is influenced by the addition of new options and does give rise to apparent preference reversals. We explore the implications of expected value maximizing choice, conditioned on noisy observations, for a range of contextual preference reversal types—including attraction, compromise, similarity, and phantom effects. These preference reversal types have played a key role in the development of models of human choice. We conclude that experiments demonstrating contextual preference reversals are not evidence for irrationality. They are, however, a consequence of expected value maximization given noisy observations. PMID:27337391

Measuring the quality of haemophilia care across different settings: a set of performance indicators derived from demographics data.

PubMed

Iorio, A; Stonebraker, J S; Brooker, M; Soucie, J M

2017-01-01

Haemophilia is a rare disease for which quality of care varies around the world. We propose data-driven indicators as surrogate measures for the provision of haemophilia care across countries and over time. The guiding criteria for selection of possible indicators were ease of calculation and direct applicability to a wide range of countries with basic data collection capacities. General population epidemiological data and haemophilia A population data from the World Federation of Hemophilia (WFH) Annual Global Survey (AGS) for the years 2013 and 2010 in a sample of 10 countries were used for this pilot exercise. Three indicators were identified: (i) the percentage difference between the observed and the expected haemophilia A incidence, which would be close to null when all of the people with haemophilia A (PWHA) theoretically expected in a country would be known and reported to the AGS; (ii) the percentage of the total number of PWHA with severe disease; and (iii) the ratio of adults to children among PWHA standardized to the ratio of adults to children for males in the general population, which would be close to one if the survival of PWHA is equal to that of the general population. Country-specific values have been calculated for the 10 countries. We have identified and evaluated three promising indicators of quality of care in haemophilia. Further evaluation on a wider set of data from the AGS will be needed to confirm their value and further explore their measurement properties. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Measuring the quality of haemophilia care across different settings: a set of performance indicators derived from demographics data

PubMed Central

IORIO, A.; STONEBRAKER, J. S.; BROOKER, M.; SOUCIE, J. M.

2017-01-01

Background Haemophilia is a rare disease for which quality of care varies around the world. We propose data-driven indicators as surrogate measures for the provision of haemophilia care across countries and over time. Materials and methods The guiding criteria for selection of possible indicators were ease of calculation and direct applicability to a wide range of countries with basic data collection capacities. General population epidemiological data and haemophilia A population data from the World Federation of Hemophilia (WFH) Annual Global Survey (AGS) for the years 2013 and 2010 in a sample of 10 countries were used for this pilot exercise. Results Three indicators were identified: (i) the percentage difference between the observed and the expected haemophilia A incidence, which would be close to null when all of the people with haemophilia A (PWHA) theoretically expected in a country would be known and reported to the AGS; (ii) the percentage of the total number of PWHA with severe disease; and (iii) the ratio of adults to children among PWHA standardized to the ratio of adults to children for males in the general population, which would be close to one if the survival of PWHA is equal to that of the general population. Country-specific values have been calculated for the 10 countries. Conclusions We have identified and evaluated three promising indicators of quality of care in haemophilia. Further evaluation on a wider set of data from the AGS will be needed to confirm their value and further explore their measurement properties. PMID:27928881

Spatial and temporal expression of vegetation and atmospheric variability from stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of bat guano in the southern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurster, Christopher M.; McFarlane, Donald A.; Bird, Michael I.

2007-07-01

Stable isotopes of faeces contain information related to the animals feeding ecology. The use of stable isotope values from subfossil faeces as a palaeoenvironmental indicator depends on how faithfully the animal records their local environment. Here we present insectivorous bat guano δ 13C and δ 15N values from a precipitation gradient across the southern United States and northern Mexico to compare with local vegetation and climate. We find δ 13C values to be an excellent predictor of expected C 4/CAM vegetation, indicating that the bats are non-selective in their diet. Moreover, we find bat guano δ 13C values to be strongly correlated with summer precipitation amount and winter precipitation ratio. We also find evidence for a significant relationship with mean annual temperature. In general, we do not find δ 15N values to be related to any parameters along the climatic gradient we examined. Additionally, we measured δ 13C and δ 15N values of bulk guano deposited annually from 1968 to 1987 in a varved guano deposit at Eagle Creek Cave, Arizona. Neither δ 13C nor δ 15N values were significantly related to various local meteorological variables; however, we found δ 13C values of guano to be significantly related to drought and to the North American Monsoon indicating bat guano δ 13C values preserve an interpretable record of large-scale atmospheric variability.

More Value through Greater Differentiation: Gender Differences in Value Beliefs about Math

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaspard, Hanna; Dicke, Anna-Lena; Flunger, Barbara; Schreier, Brigitte; Häfner, Isabelle; Trautwein, Ulrich; Nagengast, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983) is a prominent approach to explaining gender differences in math-related academic choices, with value beliefs acting as an important explanatory factor. Expectancy-value theory defines 4 value components: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, and cost. The present study followed up on…

Exploring the Relationship between Professor/Student Rapport and Students' Expectancy for Success and Values/Goals in College of Agriculture Classrooms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Estepp, Christopher M.; Roberts, T. Grady

2013-01-01

Recent reports have indicated that many undergraduate students have become unmotivated and unengaged in the learning process. As a result, calls have been made for instructors in higher education to implement classroom interventions to help better engage students in the learning process. Research has shown that creating a hospitable learning…

Development and Validation of Scores from an Instrument Measuring Student Test-Taking Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eklof, Hanna

2006-01-01

Using the expectancy-value model of achievement motivation as a basis, this study's purpose is to develop, apply, and validate scores from a self-report instrument measuring student test-taking motivation. Sampled evidence of construct validity for the present sample indicates that a number of the items in the instrument could be used as an…

Direct and indirect effects of alcohol expectancies through drinking motives on alcohol outcomes among students in Vietnam.

PubMed

Diep, Pham Bich; Schelleman-Offermans, K; Kuntsche, E; De Vries, Nanne; Knibbe, Ronald A

2016-01-01

To investigate whether the links between alcohol expectancies (tension reduction; global positive change; improved cognitive and motor abilities; and change in social behavior) and alcohol outcomes (drinking volume, 6+ drinks, alcohol problems, and symptoms of alcohol dependence) are mediated by drinking motives (social, enhancement, conformity, and coping). A multi-stage sampling strategy was used in four Vietnamese provinces, resulting in a final sample of 4756 students (43.2% females) with mean age 20.6 (SD 1.8) years. Structural equation models, including indirect effects, were estimated for women and men separately. Overall, there were many cases of full mediation (indirect effects range from -0.006 to 0.083 and p-values from <0.05 to <0.001) and little indication of partial mediation (indirect effects range from -0.009 to 0.025 and p-values from <0.05 to <0.001). In both men and women, coping motives most frequently mediated the influence of expectancies on alcohol outcomes. Among men, enhancement motives and, to a lesser extent, social motives also played a role in mediating the effects of expectancies on alcohol outcomes. Among women, full mediation was found far less often and less consistently. By confirming that, in Vietnam, motives mediate the link between expectancies and drinking behavior, this study supports the cultural robustness of a key assumption of the motivational model (i.e. that drinking motives are more closely associated with alcohol use than expectancies). Enhancement, coping and social motives are most frequently found as mediators among male students whereas coping motive only is most frequently found as a mediator among female students. As most of the effects of expectancies were mediated by motives, drinking motives appear to be a promising factor for interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expectations and Values of University Students in Transition: Evidence from an Australian Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearson, Cecil A. L.; Chatterjee, Samir R.

2004-01-01

Reforms in the functioning and purpose of higher education during the past 2 decades have created profound changes in the expectations and values of university students worldwide. Indeed, the values of entrepreneurship, vocational relevance, and commercial success have considerably displaced the traditional expectations of knowledge acquisition…

College Students' Motivation toward Weight Training: An Application of Expectancy-Value Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping

2008-01-01

Guided by an expectancy-value model of achievement choice (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), the relationships among expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values (importance, interest, and usefulness), and achievement outcomes (intention, engagement, and performance) were examined in a college-level beginning weight training…

Content Specificity of Expectancy Beliefs and Task Values in Elementary Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Ang; Martin, Robert; Ennis, Catherine D.; Sun, Haichun

2008-01-01

The curriculum may superimpose a content-specific context that mediates motivation (Bong, 2001). This study examined content specificity of the expectancy-value motivation in elementary school physical education. Students' expectancy beliefs and perceived task values from a cardiorespiratory fitness unit, a muscular fitness unit, and a traditional…

Adolescent Expectancy-Value Motivation, Achievement in Physical Education, and Physical Activity Participation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Xihe; Chen, Ang

2013-01-01

This study examined the relation between adolescent expectancy-value motivation, achievements, and after-school physical activity participation. Adolescents (N = 854) from 12 middle schools completed an expectancy-value motivation questionnaire, pre and posttests in psychomotor skill and health-related fitness knowledge tests, and a three-day…

Scalar field vacuum expectation value induced by gravitational wave background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Preston; McDougall, Patrick; Ragsdale, Michael; Singleton, Douglas

2018-06-01

We show that a massless scalar field in a gravitational wave background can develop a non-zero vacuum expectation value. We draw comparisons to the generation of a non-zero vacuum expectation value for a scalar field in the Higgs mechanism and with the dynamical Casimir vacuum. We propose that this vacuum expectation value, generated by a gravitational wave, can be connected with particle production from gravitational waves and may have consequences for the early Universe where scalar fields are thought to play an important role.

Evaluating expected outcomes of acid remediation in an intensively mined Appalachian watershed.

PubMed

Watson, Andrew S; Merovich, George T; Petty, J Todd; Gutta, J Brady

2017-07-01

Assessments of watershed-based restoration efforts are rare but are essential for the science of stream restoration to advance. We conducted a watershed scale assessment of Abram Creek before and after implementation of a watershed-based plan designed to maximize ecological recovery from acid mine drainage (AMD) impairment. We surveyed water chemistry, physical habitat, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish community structure in three stream types: AMD-impacted (14 streams), AMD-treated (13 streams), and unimpaired reference (4 streams). We used in-stream measurements to quantify ecological loss from AMD, the amount of ecological recovery expected through remediation, and the observed degree of post-treatment recovery. Sites impaired by AMD improved in water quality with AMD treatment. Dissolved metals and acidity declined significantly in treated streams, but sulfate and specific conductance did not. Likewise, sites impaired by AMD improved in bio-condition scores with AMD treatment. EPT genera increased significantly but were lower compared to unimpaired streams. We found fish at nine treated sites that had none before treatment. Community-level analyses indicated improved but altered assemblages with AMD treatment. Analysis of pre-treatment conditions indicated that only 30% of the historic fishery remained. Remediation was expected to recover 66% of the historic fishery value, and assessment of post-treatment conditions indicates that 52% of the historic fishery has been recovered after 3 years. Developing expected endpoints for restoration outcomes provides a tool to objectively evaluate successes and can guide adaptive management strategies.

Evaluation of a novel semi-automated HPLC procedure for whole blood cyclosporin A confirms equivalence to adjusted monoclonal values from Abbott TDx.

PubMed

Roberts, Norman B; Dutton, John; Higgins, Gerald; Allars, Lesley

2005-01-01

The problem in the measurement of cyclosporin (CyA) is that the widely used immuno-based assays suffer from interference by metabolites present in unpredictable excess. To resolve this, the consensus view has been to develop more specific and robust procedures for the measurement of CyA alone in order to give values similar to those obtained by HPLC. We developed an alternative strategy based on Abbott poly- and monoclonal assays to derive an adjusted monoclonal value as an equivalent measurement to HPLC. We have now evaluated a recently developed semi-automated HPLC procedure and used it to test the validity of the adjusted monoclonal value. The automated HPLC procedure with online clean-up was optimised for the separation of CyA and internal standard CyD. The assay was simple to use, precise and gave good recovery of cyclosporin from whole blood. Comparisons with the more specific immunoassays Abbott AxSym and EMIT showed close agreement, whereas Abbott monoclonal values indicated up to 20% positive bias. In contrast, the adjusted monoclonal values gave good agreement with HPLC. Data obtained from HPLC linked to tandem mass spectrometry (MS) indicated closer agreement with Abbott monoclonal values than expected, suggesting some positive bias with MS. The benefit of using an adjusted monoclonal value is that a result equivalent to HPLC is obtained, as well as an indication of the concentration of metabolites from the Abbott polyclonal measurement.

Values in First-Episode Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Agid, Ofer; Mcdonald, Krysta; Fervaha, Gagan; Littrell, Romie; Thoma, Jessica; Zipursky, Robert B; Foussias, George; Remington, Gary

2015-11-01

Functional impairment continues to represent a major challenge in schizophrenia. Surprisingly, patients with schizophrenia report a level of happiness comparable with control subjects, even in the face of the prominent functional deficits, a finding at odds with evidence indicating a positive relation between happiness and level of functioning. In attempting to reconcile these findings, we chose to examine the issue of values, defined as affectively infused criteria or motivational goals used to select and justify actions, people, and the self, as values are related to both happiness and functioning. Fifty-six first-episode patients in remission and 56 healthy control subjects completed happiness and values measures. Statistical analyses included correlations, analysis of variance, structural equation modelling, and smallest space analysis. Results indicated that patients with schizophrenia placed significantly greater priority on the value dimensions of Tradition (P = 0.02) and Power (P = 0.03), and significantly less priority on Self-direction (P = 0.007) and Stimulation, (P = 0.008). Essentially, people with schizophrenia place more emphasis on the customs and ideas that traditional culture or religion provide in conjunction with a decreased interest in change, which is at odds with the expectations of early adulthood. This value difference could be related to functional deficits. To this point, we have assumed that people hold to the same values that guided them before the illness' onset, but this may not be the case. Our study indicates that values differ in people with schizophrenia, compared with control subjects, even early in the illness and in the face of symptomatic remission.

Inbreeding and immigration in urban and rural zones of Chile, with an endogamy index.

PubMed

Lazo, B; Campusano, C; Figueroa, H; Pinto-Cisternas, J; Zambra, E

1978-01-01

In order to establish relationships among immigration, inbreeding, and age at marriage in urban and rural zones in Chile, and to formulate an endogamy index, ecclesiastical and civil data on consanguinity from 1865-1914 were analyzed, and a random mating deviation index was developed, with resulting values indicating deviation toward endogamy in both zones. Data grouped by zones and decades include means of population and density, nuptiality, consanguineous marriages (number, types, frequencies, and inbreeding coefficients), and frequencies of immigrants among consanguineous and nonconsanguineous couples. All of these values differ markedly between zones, with values in the rural zone double those in the urban zone. In the 2 zones, there are no clear differences in age at marriage between consanguineous and nonconsanguineous couples, and this is an important finding. From the point of view of fertility, one can expect a similar length period of fertility for both groups of couples. In this case, lower fertility might be expected in consanguineous marriages, only because of a higher probability of homozygosis of deleterious genes.

The Mexican American Cultural Values scales for Adolescents and Adults

PubMed Central

Knight, George P.; Gonzales, Nancy A.; Saenz, Delia S.; Bonds, Darya D.; Germán, Miguelina; Deardorff, Julianna; Roosa, Mark W.; Updegraff, Kimberly A.

2009-01-01

This research evaluates the properties of a measure of culturally linked values of Mexican Americans in early adolescence and adulthood. The items measure were derived from qualitative data provided by focus groups in which Mexican Americans’ (adolescents, mothers and fathers) perceptions of key values were discussed. The focus groups and a preliminary item refinement resulted in the fifty-item Mexican American Cultural Values Scales (identical for adolescents and adults) that includes nine value subscales. Analyses of data from two large previously published studies sampling Mexican American adolescents, mothers, and fathers provided evidence of the expected two correlated higher order factor structures, reliability, and construct validity of the subscales of the Mexican American Cultural Values Scales as indicators of values that are frequently associated with Mexican/Mexican American culture. The utility of this measure for use in longitudinal research, and in resolving some important theoretical questions regarding dual cultural adaptation, are discussed. PMID:20644653

Training of Students’ Critical Thinking Skills through the implementation of a Modified Free Inquiry Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadi, S. A.; Susantini, E.; Agustini, R.

2018-01-01

This research aimed at training students’ critical thinking skills through the implementation of a modified free inquiry learning model. The subjects of this research were 21 students of Mathematics Semester II. Using One-Group Pretest-Posttest Design, the data were analyzed descriptively using N-gain indicator. The results indicate that the modified free inquiry learning model was effective to train students’ critical thinking skills. The increase in the students’ critical thinking skills viewed from the value of N-Gain has a range of values with the categories of medium and high with a score between 0,25-0,95. Overall, the change in N-Gain score of each student and each indicator of critical thinking skills is as increasing with a moderate category. The increase of N-Gain value is resulted from the fact that the students were directly involved in organizing their learning process. These criteria indicate that the modified free inquiry learning model can be used to train students’ critical thinking skills on photosynthesis and cellular respiration materials. The results of this research are expected to be nationally implemented to familiarize students with andragogy learning style which places the students as the subjects of learning.

Achievement, Motivation, and Educational Choices: A Longitudinal Study of Expectancy and Value Using a Multiplicative Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guo, Jiesi; Parker, Philip D.; Marsh, Herbert W.; Morin, Alexandre J. S.

2015-01-01

Drawing on the expectancy-value model, the present study explored individual and gender differences in university entry and selection of educational pathway (e.g., science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [STEM] course selection). In particular, we examined the multiplicative effects of expectancy and task values on educational outcomes…

Children's Perceived Cost for Exercise: Application of an Expectancy-Value Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiang, Evelyn S.; Byrd, Sandra P.; Molin, Ashley J.

2011-01-01

Expectancy-value models of motivation have been applied to understanding children's choices in areas such as academics and sports. Here, an expectancy-value paradigm is applied to exercising (defined as engaging in physical activity). The notion of perceived cost is highlighted in particular. Two hundred twenty children in third, fourth, and fifth…

Ninth Graders' Energy Balance Knowledge and Physical Activity Behavior: An Expectancy-Value Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Senlin; Chen, Ang

2012-01-01

Expectancy beliefs and task values are two essential motivators in physical education. This study was designed to identify the relation between the expectancy-value constructs (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995) and high school students' physical activity behavior as associated with their energy balance knowledge. High school students (N = 195) in two…

Measurement Invariance of Expectancy-Value Questionnaire in Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Xihe; Sun, Haichun; Chen, Ang; Ennis, Catherine

2012-01-01

Expectancy-Value Questionnaire (EVQ) measures student expectancy beliefs and task values of the domain content (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995). In this study the authors examine measurement invariance of EVQ in the domain of physical education between elementary and middle-school students. Participants included 811 students (3rd-5th grades) from 13…

Adolescents' Expectancies for Success and Achievement Task Values during the Middle and High School Years.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wigfield, Allan; Tonks, Stephen

This chapter discusses the development of achievement motivation during adolescence from the perspective of expectancy-value theory, and explains how adolescents' expectancies for success and achievement values change during adolescence, particularly during educational transitions such as that from elementary to middle school and from middle to…

Cost Perception and the Expectancy-Value Model of Achievement Motivation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Patricia N.

The expectancy-value model of achievement motivation, first described by J. Atkinson (1957) and refined by J. Eccles and her colleagues (1983, 1992, 1994) predicts achievement motivation based on expectancy for success and perceived task value. Cost has been explored very little. To explore the possibility that cost is different from expectancy…

Determining the value of disease management programs.

PubMed

Selby, Joe V; Scanlon, Dennis; Lafata, Jennifer Elston; Villagra, Victor; Beich, Jeff; Salber, Patricia R

2003-09-01

Increasing prevalence, rising costs, and persisting deficiencies in quality of care for chronic diseases pose economic and policy challenges to providers and purchasers. Disease management (DM) programs may address these challenges, but neither purchasers nor providers can assess their value. The potpourri of current quality indicators provides limited insight into the actual clinical benefit achieved. A conference sponsored by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) and held in October 2002 explored new approaches to measuring and reporting the value of DM for diabetes mellitus. Quantifying the value of DM requires measuring clinical benefit and net impact on health care costs for the entire population with diabetes. If quality is measured with indicators that are clearly linked to outcomes, clinical benefit can be estimated. Natural history models combine the expected benefits of improvements in multiple indicators to yield a single, composite measure, the quality-adjusted life-year. Such metrics could fairly express, in terms of survival and complications prevention, relatively disparate DM programs' benefits. Measuring and comparing health care costs requires data validation and appropriate case-mix adjustment. Comparing value across programs may provide more accurate assessments of performance, enhance quality improvement efforts within systems, and contribute generalizable knowledge on the utility of DM approaches. Conference attendees recommended pilot projects to further explore use of natural history models for measuring and reporting the value of DM.

[Measure of premature mortality: comparison of deaths before age 65 and expected years of life lost].

PubMed

Lapostolle, A; Lefranc, A; Gremy, I; Spira, A

2008-08-01

For many years in France, premature mortality (i.e., deaths before 65 years old) and avoidable deaths have generally been used to monitor health of the population and help to elaborate policies in this area. This paper aims to examine the utility of another indicator of premature mortality, which makes it possible to take into account the impact of deaths, the expected years of life lost (EYLL). Mortality data for France in the years 2000 to 2002 were obtained from the Centre for Epidemiology of the Medical Causes of Death. Premature mortality was defined as death before 65 years of age. For the calculation of EYLL, the mortality norm chosen was French-life expectancy for the years 2001 to 2003. In order to study the spatial distribution of the indicators above defined, standardized ratios were calculated for each administrative area, taking France as the reference population. Irrespective of the gender and indicator considered, ranking of the causes emphasized three major groups of pathological conditions, which are strongly distinguished from the others: cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasm and injuries. The ranking of causes varied considerably according to the indicator used. The spatial representation of standardized ratios of expected years of life lost and deaths before 65 showed a strong North-South trend. The concept of premature mortality is difficult to define and discussions persist on the age limit to use for its quantification. The choice of an indicator strongly depends on the use which one wishes to make. The simple analysis of deaths before 65 years currently used to describe premature mortality in France makes it possible to describe its frequency. The use of a summary measure as EYLL allows to quantify the impact of premature mortality by giving different weights to deaths depending on the age of occurrence. EYLL, thus, seems to be an indicator, which is particularly adapted to decision-making in public health, depending on choices and values one wishes to give preference to.

Expectancy-Value and Children's Science Achievement: Parents Matter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Julie A.; Strunk, Kamden K.

2017-01-01

This longitudinal study explored the ways parents' and teachers' expectancy for success influences 3rd-5th children's expectancy for success and achievement in science. Guided by an open-systems perspective and functional (Ballantine & Roberts, 2007) and expectancy-value (Eccles, 2005, 2007) theories, we focused on school related socialization…

Valuing Blue Carbon: Carbon Sequestration Benefits Provided by the Marine Protected Areas in Colombia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Marine protected areas are aimed to protect and conserve key ecosystems for the provision of a number of ecosystem services that are the basis for numerous economic activities. Among the several services that these areas provide, the capacity of sequestering (capturing and storing) organic carbon is a regulating service, provided mainly by mangroves and seagrasses, that gains importance as alternatives for mitigating global warming become a priority in the international agenda. The objective of this study is to value the services associated with the capture and storage of oceanic carbon, known as Blue Carbon, provided by a new network of marine protected areas in Colombia. We approach the monetary value associated to these services through the simulation of a hypothetical market for oceanic carbon. To do that, we construct a benefit function that considers the capacity of mangroves and seagrasses for capturing and storing blue carbon, and simulate scenarios for the variation of key variables such as the market carbon price, the discount rate, the natural rate of loss of the ecosystems, and the expectations about the post-Kyoto negotiations. The results indicate that the expected benefits associated to carbon capture and storage provided by these ecosystems are substantial but highly dependent on the expectations in terms of the negotiations surrounding the extension of the Kyoto Protocol and the dynamics of the carbon credit’s demand and supply. We also find that the natural loss rate of these ecosystems does not seem to have a significant effect on the annual value of the benefits. This approach constitutes one of the first attempts to value blue carbon as one of the services provided by conservation. PMID:26018814

Predicting High School Graduation for Latino Males Using Expectancy Value Theory of Motivation and Tenth Grade Reading Achievement Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knape, Erin Oakley

2010-01-01

National education data indicate that young men of color and students living in poverty are not experiencing the same academic success as their female, White, or higher socioeconomic status peers, as evidenced by low reading achievement levels and high dropout rates. Of particular concern is the underachievement of Latino males, who currently have…

Green pastures: Do US real estate prices respond to population health?

PubMed

Nau, Claudia; Bishai, David

2018-01-01

We investigate whether communities with improving population health will subsequently experience rising real estate prices. Home price indices (HPIs) for 371 MSAs from 1990 to 2010 are regressed against life-expectancy five years prior. HPIs come from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Life expectancy estimates come from the Institute of Health Metrics. Our analysis uses random and fixed effect models with a comprehensive set of controls. Life expectancy predicted increases in the HPI controlling for potential confounders. We found that, this effect varied spatially. Communities that invest their revenue from property taxes in public health infrastructure could benefit from a virtuous cycle of better health leading to higher property values. Communities that do not invest in health could enter vicious cycles and this could widen geospatial health and wealth disparities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new approach to process control using Instability Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weintraub, Jeffrey; Warrick, Scott

2016-03-01

The merits of a robust Statistical Process Control (SPC) methodology have long been established. In response to the numerous SPC rule combinations, processes, and the high cost of containment, the Instability Index (ISTAB) is presented as a tool for managing these complexities. ISTAB focuses limited resources on key issues and provides a window into the stability of manufacturing operations. ISTAB takes advantage of the statistical nature of processes by comparing the observed average run length (OARL) to the expected run length (ARL), resulting in a gap value called the ISTAB index. The ISTAB index has three characteristic behaviors that are indicative of defects in an SPC instance. Case 1: The observed average run length is excessively long relative to expectation. ISTAB > 0 is indicating the possibility that the limits are too wide. Case 2: The observed average run length is consistent with expectation. ISTAB near zero is indicating that the process is stable. Case 3: The observed average run length is inordinately short relative to expectation. ISTAB < 0 is indicating that the limits are too tight, the process is unstable or both. The probability distribution of run length is the basis for establishing an ARL. We demonstrate that the geometric distribution is a good approximation to run length across a wide variety of rule sets. Excessively long run lengths are associated with one kind of defect in an SPC instance; inordinately short run lengths are associated with another. A sampling distribution is introduced as a way to quantify excessively long and inordinately short observed run lengths. This paper provides detailed guidance for action limits on these run lengths. ISTAB as a statistical method of review facilitates automated instability detection. This paper proposes a management system based on ISTAB as an enhancement to more traditional SPC approaches.

Solar thermal technologies - Potential benefits to U.S. utilities and industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terasawa, K. L.; Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs. Previously announced in STAR as N83-10547

Where and when should sensors move? Sampling using the expected value of information.

PubMed

de Bruin, Sytze; Ballari, Daniela; Bregt, Arnold K

2012-11-26

In case of an environmental accident, initially available data are often insufficient for properly managing the situation. In this paper, new sensor observations are iteratively added to an initial sample by maximising the global expected value of information of the points for decision making. This is equivalent to minimizing the aggregated expected misclassification costs over the study area. The method considers measurement error and different costs for class omissions and false class commissions. Constraints imposed by a mobile sensor web are accounted for using cost distances to decide which sensor should move to the next sample location. The method is demonstrated using synthetic examples of static and dynamic phenomena. This allowed computation of the true misclassification costs and comparison with other sampling approaches. The probability of local contamination levels being above a given critical threshold were computed by indicator kriging. In the case of multiple sensors being relocated simultaneously, a genetic algorithm was used to find sets of suitable new measurement locations. Otherwise, all grid nodes were searched exhaustively, which is computationally demanding. In terms of true misclassification costs, the method outperformed random sampling and sampling based on minimisation of the kriging variance.

Where and When Should Sensors Move? Sampling Using the Expected Value of Information

PubMed Central

de Bruin, Sytze; Ballari, Daniela; Bregt, Arnold K.

2012-01-01

In case of an environmental accident, initially available data are often insufficient for properly managing the situation. In this paper, new sensor observations are iteratively added to an initial sample by maximising the global expected value of information of the points for decision making. This is equivalent to minimizing the aggregated expected misclassification costs over the study area. The method considers measurement error and different costs for class omissions and false class commissions. Constraints imposed by a mobile sensor web are accounted for using cost distances to decide which sensor should move to the next sample location. The method is demonstrated using synthetic examples of static and dynamic phenomena. This allowed computation of the true misclassification costs and comparison with other sampling approaches. The probability of local contamination levels being above a given critical threshold were computed by indicator kriging. In the case of multiple sensors being relocated simultaneously, a genetic algorithm was used to find sets of suitable new measurement locations. Otherwise, all grid nodes were searched exhaustively, which is computationally demanding. In terms of true misclassification costs, the method outperformed random sampling and sampling based on minimisation of the kriging variance. PMID:23443379

Motivational beliefs, values, and goals.

PubMed

Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Wigfield, Allan

2002-01-01

This chapter reviews the recent research on motivation, beliefs, values, and goals, focusing on developmental and educational psychology. The authors divide the chapter into four major sections: theories focused on expectancies for success (self-efficacy theory and control theory), theories focused on task value (theories focused on intrinsic motivation, self-determination, flow, interest, and goals), theories that integrate expectancies and values (attribution theory, the expectancy-value models of Eccles et al., Feather, and Heckhausen, and self-worth theory), and theories integrating motivation and cognition (social cognitive theories of self-regulation and motivation, the work by Winne & Marx, Borkowski et al., Pintrich et al., and theories of motivation and volition). The authors end the chapter with a discussion of how to integrate theories of self-regulation and expectancy-value models of motivation and suggest new directions for future research.

Is Recess an Achievement Context? An Application of Expectancy-Value Theory to Playground Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer-Cavaliere, Nancy; Dunn, Janice Causgrove; Watkinson, E. Jane

2009-01-01

This study investigated the application of an expectancy-value model to children's activity choices on the playground at recess. The purpose was to test the prediction that expectancies for success and subjective task values are related to decisions to engage in specific recess activities such as climbing, playing soccer, or skipping rope.…

Frame of Reference Effects on Values in Mathematics: Evidence from German Secondary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cambria, Jenna; Brandt, Holger; Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich

2017-01-01

Expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation identifies two classes of beliefs that are important predictors of educational choices and achievement: expectancies and values. It is well known that high achieving peers can have a negative impact on self-concept and other measures of expected success: holding individual achievement constant,…

A systems theory approach to career development: Exploring factors that affect science as a career choice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liskey, Brian K.

This research project was designed to examine the factors that affect students' choice in a career. Specifically, the factors of (a) achievement, (b) interest, (c) self-efficacy, (d) perceived preparation for a career, and (e) being informed about a career will be under investigation. Of key importance to the study is how these factors can affect a student's perception about choosing a science career. A quantitative analysis of secondary data from the 2006 and 2009 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) international assessment and attitudinal questionnaire provided data on student perceptions and aptitude in science. The sample from PISA included over 400,000 15 year-old students from 57 countries. From the 57 countries, 30 countries, comprised by Organization for Economic and Cooperative Development (OECD), were isolated for analysis. Within this group of 30, 11 were selected for comparison based on their questionnaire response to expectations for a career in science at age 30. The Institute for Educational Science's, International Data Explorer was utilized to acquire and analyze data from the 2006 and 2009 PISA international tests and questionnaires to determine significance between scaled scores and PISA indices. Variables were chosen as factors affecting student's perception on various systems outlined by the Systems Theory of Career Development (Patton & McMahon, 1997) and the Systems Theory of Career Development Framework (Patton & McMahon, 1999). Four country groups were established based on student responses to question 30a from the 2006 PISA attitudinal questionnaire, which asks what career students expected to have at age 30. The results from comparing country groups showed that countries in Group A, which showed the highest values for students expecting a career in science, also had the highest average values for achievement on the PISA science literacy assessment. Likewise, countries that had the lowest values for expecting a career in science (Group B) also had the lowest average values for achievement in science as assessed by science literacy score according to PISA. The United States (Group C) and the International Average (Group D) were both intermediate in each of the two categories. The analysis also showed an identical country group sequence from highest responses to lowest responses for the "systems" or variables of a) self-efficacy, b) preparation for a science career, and c) information about a career in science. The group sequence from high to low values was Group C, Group B, Group D, Group A. When comparing this country group sequence there appears to be a weak negative association between students in countries that expect a career in science and the values for self-efficacy, being prepared for, and informed about a career in science. The findings from this study indicate that the greatest factor affecting students' perception for expecting a career in science is high achievement in science. These results provide key insight on the Systems Theory of Career Development missing from the existing body of literature. Leaders in the fields of education and educational policy can use this information to guide practices and promote programs that will aid in higher achievement in science and engineering. This research can also be used by leaders in career counseling to advise students on appropriate career paths and prepare students for future careers in science and technology. Finally, leadership within state and federal institutions can utilize results from this study to guide future research and funding that encourages students on career pathways in the fields of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM).

A review of the outcome expectancy construct in physical activity research.

PubMed

Williams, David M; Anderson, Eileen S; Winett, Richard A

2005-02-01

Outcome expectancy is a central construct in social cognitive models of health behavior widely used as frameworks for physical activity research. This article provides a review of the outcome expectancy construct and its application to research on physical activity. Theoretical articles describing definitions and placement of outcome expectancy within social cognitive models, as well as empirical research on outcome expectancy and physical activity, were reviewed. Self-efficacy theory, the transtheoretical model, the theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory differ in their labeling and conceptualization of outcome expectancy but unanimously include expected outcomes of behavior. Preliminary empirical investigation of the role of outcome expectancy in understanding physical activity has yielded mixed results. Positive outcome expectancy appears to be more predictive of physical activity in older adults than in young to middle-aged adults, and personal barriers appear to be the most predictive subtype of negative outcome expectancy. In addition, a small number of studies indicate relations between outcome expectancy and other theoretical variables, including behavioral intention, stage of change, and self-efficacy. Further research on the role of outcome expectancy is necessary to design effective physical activity interventions. New directions in outcome expectancy research could involve (a) expanding the conceptualization of outcome expectancy to include expected outcomes of sedentary behavior and affective responses to physical activity, (b) further examination of potential moderators of the relation between outcome expectancy and physical activity (such as outcome value and outcome proximity), (c) distinguishing between the role of outcome expectancy in behavior onset versus behavior maintenance, (d) examining outcome expectancy as a mechanism of change in environmental intervention approaches, and (e) further analysis of interrelations between outcome expectancy and other social cognitive variables.

Positron annihilation lifetime and photoluminescence studies on single crystalline ZnO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, A.; Chakrabarti, Mahuya; Ray, S. K.; Bhowmick, D.; Sanyal, D.

2011-04-01

The room temperature positron annihilation lifetime for single crystalline ZnO has been measured as 164 ± 1 ps. The single component lifetime value is very close to but higher than the theoretically predicted value of ~ 154 ps. Photoluminescence study (at 10 K) indicates the presence of hydrogen and other defects, mainly acceptor related, in the crystal. Defects related to a lower open volume than zinc vacancies, presumably a complex with two hydrogen atoms, are the major trapping sites in the sample. The bulk positron lifetime in ZnO is expected to be a little less than 164 ps.

Positron annihilation lifetime and photoluminescence studies on single crystalline ZnO.

PubMed

Sarkar, A; Chakrabarti, Mahuya; Ray, S K; Bhowmick, D; Sanyal, D

2011-04-20

The room temperature positron annihilation lifetime for single crystalline ZnO has been measured as 164 ± 1 ps. The single component lifetime value is very close to but higher than the theoretically predicted value of ~154 ps. Photoluminescence study (at 10 K) indicates the presence of hydrogen and other defects, mainly acceptor related, in the crystal. Defects related to a lower open volume than zinc vacancies, presumably a complex with two hydrogen atoms, are the major trapping sites in the sample. The bulk positron lifetime in ZnO is expected to be a little less than 164 ps.

NASA's Human Mission to a Near-Earth Asteroid: Landing on a Moving Target

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.; Lincoln, William P.; Weisbin, Charles R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending versus not sending one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The expected value of sample information based on productivity combined with parametric variations in the prior probability an asteroid might be found suitable for landing were used to assess the optimal number of spacecraft and asteroids to survey. The analysis supports the value of surveyor missions to asteroids and indicates one launch with two spacecraft going simultaneously to two independent asteroids appears optimal.

I Plan Therefore I Choose: Free-Choice Bias Due to Prior Action-Probability but Not Action-Value

PubMed Central

Suriya-Arunroj, Lalitta; Gail, Alexander

2015-01-01

According to an emerging view, decision-making, and motor planning are tightly entangled at the level of neural processing. Choice is influenced not only by the values associated with different options, but also biased by other factors. Here we test the hypothesis that preliminary action planning can induce choice biases gradually and independently of objective value when planning overlaps with one of the potential action alternatives. Subjects performed center-out reaches obeying either a clockwise or counterclockwise cue-response rule in two tasks. In the probabilistic task, a pre-cue indicated the probability of each of the two potential rules to become valid. When the subsequent rule-cue unambiguously indicated which of the pre-cued rules was actually valid (instructed trials), subjects responded faster to rules pre-cued with higher probability. When subjects were allowed to choose freely between two equally rewarded rules (choice trials) they chose the originally more likely rule more often and faster, despite the lack of an objective advantage in selecting this target. In the amount task, the pre-cue indicated the amount of potential reward associated with each rule. Subjects responded faster to rules pre-cued with higher reward amount in instructed trials of the amount task, equivalent to the more likely rule in the probabilistic task. Yet, in contrast, subjects showed hardly any choice bias and no increase in response speed in favor of the original high-reward target in the choice trials of the amount task. We conclude that free-choice behavior is robustly biased when predictability encourages the planning of one of the potential responses, while prior reward expectations without action planning do not induce such strong bias. Our results provide behavioral evidence for distinct contributions of expected value and action planning in decision-making and a tight interdependence of motor planning and action selection, supporting the idea that the underlying neural mechanisms overlap. PMID:26635565

Citizens' perspectives on personalized medicine: a qualitative public deliberation study

PubMed Central

Bombard, Yvonne; Abelson, Julia; Simeonov, Dorina; Gauvin, Francois-Pierre

2013-01-01

Our objective was to explore citizens' informed and reasoned values and expectations of personalized medicine, a timely yet novel genomics policy issue. A qualitative, public deliberation study was undertaken using a citizens' reference panel on health technologies, established to provide input to the health technology assessment process in Ontario, Canada. The citizens' panel consisted of five women and nine men, aged 18–71 years, with one member selected from each health authority region. There were shared expectations among the citizens' panel members for the potential of personalized medicine technologies to improve care, provided they are deemed clinically valid and effective. These expectations were tempered by concerns about value for money and the possibility that access to treatment may be limited by personalized medicine tests used to stratify patients. Although they questioned the presumed technological imperative presented by personalized medicine technologies, they called for increased efforts to prepare the health-care system to effectively integrate these technologies. This study represents an early but important effort to explore public values toward personalized medicine. This study also provides evidence of the public's ability to form coherent judgments about a new policy issue. Concerned that personalized tests might be used to ration care, they suggested that treatment should be made available if patients wanted it, irrespective of tests that indicate little benefit. This issue raises clinical and policy challenges that may undermine the value of personalized medicine. Further efforts to deliberate with the public are warranted to inform effective, efficient and equitable translation of personalized medicine. PMID:23340511

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Assay of Key Quality-Indicative Ingredients of Tongkang Tablets.

PubMed

Pan, Wenjie; Ma, Jinfang; Xiao, Xue; Huang, Zhengwei; Zhou, Huanbin; Ge, Fahuan; Pan, Xin

2017-04-01

The objective of this paper is to develop an easy and fast near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) assay for the four key quality-indicative active ingredients of Tongkang tablets by comparing the true content of the active ingredients measured by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and the NIRS data. The HPLC values for the active ingredients content of Cimicifuga glycoside, calycosin glucoside, 5-O-methylvisamminol and hesperidin in Tongkang tablets were set as reference values. The NIRS raw spectra of Tongkang tablets were processed using first-order convolution method. The iterative optimization method was chosen to optimize the band for Cimicifuga glycoside and 5-O-methylvisamminol, and correlation coefficient method was used to determine the optimal band of calycosin glucoside and hesperidin. A near-infrared quantitative calibration model was established for each quality-indicative ingredient by partial least-squares method on the basis of the contents detected by HPLC and the obtained NIRS spectra. The correlation coefficient R 2 values of the four models of Cimicifuga glycoside, calycosin glucoside, 5-O-methylvisamminol and hesperidin were 0.9025, 0.8582, 0.9250, and 0.9325, respectively. It was demonstrated that the accuracy of the validation values was approximately 90% by comparison of the predicted results from NIRS models and the HPLC true values, which suggested that NIRS assay was successfully established and validated. It was expected that the quantitative analysis models of the four indicative ingredients could be used to rapidly perform quality control in industrial production of Tongkang tablets.

ECG contamination of EEG signals: effect on entropy.

PubMed

Chakrabarti, Dhritiman; Bansal, Sonia

2016-02-01

Entropy™ is a proprietary algorithm which uses spectral entropy analysis of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals to produce indices which are used as a measure of depth of hypnosis. We describe a report of electrocardiographic (ECG) contamination of EEG signals leading to fluctuating erroneous Entropy values. An explanation is provided for mechanism behind this observation by describing the spread of ECG signals in head and neck and its influence on EEG/Entropy by correlating the observation with the published Entropy algorithm. While the Entropy algorithm has been well conceived, there are still instances in which it can produce erroneous values. Such erroneous values and their cause may be identified by close scrutiny of the EEG waveform if Entropy values seem out of sync with that expected at given anaesthetic levels.

Maternity care: a narrative overview of what women expect across their care continuum.

PubMed

Clark, Kim; Beatty, Shelley; Reibel, Tracy

2015-04-01

to provide a narrative overview of the values schema underpinning women׳s expectations of public maternity-care services using an episodes-of-care framework. focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews were undertaken with Western Australian women who had opted for public maternity care to determine the values schema apparent in their expectations of their care. public maternity-care services in metropolitan (i.e. Armadale, Osborne Park and Rockingham) and regional (i.e. Broome, Geraldton, Bunbury) Western Australia. women interviewed were found to have consistent values schema underpinning their maternity-care expectations and evaluations. the current study suggests that while women׳s choices and experiences of maternity care may differ on a range of dimensions, the values schema underlying their care expectations and subsequent evaluations are similar. The study findings resonate with past Australian research regarding women׳s expectations of public maternity care, but complement it by providing a coherent narrative of core underpinning stage-specific values schema. These may assist maternity-care policy makers, practitioners and researchers seeking to better understand and comprehensively respond to women׳s maternity-care expectations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

26 CFR 1.170A-12 - Valuation of a remainder interest in real property for contributions made after July 31, 1969.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... expected useful life of 45 years, at the end of which time it is expected to have a value of $10,000, and... is $50,000 (the value of the house ($60,000) less its expected value at the end of 45 years ($10,000... section. If the remainder interest that has been contributed follows a term for years, the value of the...

26 CFR 1.170A-12 - Valuation of a remainder interest in real property for contributions made after July 31, 1969.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... expected useful life of 45 years, at the end of which time it is expected to have a value of $10,000, and... is $50,000 (the value of the house ($60,000) less its expected value at the end of 45 years ($10,000... section. If the remainder interest that has been contributed follows a term for years, the value of the...

Investigating and improving student understanding of the expectation values of observables in quantum mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshman, Emily; Singh, Chandralekha

2017-07-01

The expectation value of an observable is an important concept in quantum mechanics since measurement outcomes are, in general, probabilistic and we only have information about the probability distribution of measurement outcomes in a given quantum state of a system. However, we find that upper-level undergraduate and PhD students in physics have both conceptual and procedural difficulties when determining the expectation value of a physical observable in a given quantum state in terms of the eigenstates and eigenvalues of the corresponding operator, especially when using Dirac notation. Here we first describe the difficulties that these students have with determining the expectation value of an observable in Dirac notation. We then discuss how the difficulties found via student responses to written surveys and individual interviews were used as a guide in the development of a quantum interactive learning tutorial (QuILT) to help students develop a good grasp of the expectation value. The QuILT strives to help students integrate conceptual understanding and procedural skills to develop a coherent understanding of the expectation value. We discuss the effectiveness of the QuILT in helping students learn this concept from in-class evaluations.

Genetic variation maintained in multilocus models of additive quantitative traits under stabilizing selection.

PubMed Central

Bürger, R; Gimelfarb, A

1999-01-01

Stabilizing selection for an intermediate optimum is generally considered to deplete genetic variation in quantitative traits. However, conflicting results from various types of models have been obtained. While classical analyses assuming a large number of independent additive loci with individually small effects indicated that no genetic variation is preserved under stabilizing selection, several analyses of two-locus models showed the contrary. We perform a complete analysis of a generalization of Wright's two-locus quadratic-optimum model and investigate numerically the ability of quadratic stabilizing selection to maintain genetic variation in additive quantitative traits controlled by up to five loci. A statistical approach is employed by choosing randomly 4000 parameter sets (allelic effects, recombination rates, and strength of selection) for a given number of loci. For each parameter set we iterate the recursion equations that describe the dynamics of gamete frequencies starting from 20 randomly chosen initial conditions until an equilibrium is reached, record the quantities of interest, and calculate their corresponding mean values. As the number of loci increases from two to five, the fraction of the genome expected to be polymorphic declines surprisingly rapidly, and the loci that are polymorphic increasingly are those with small effects on the trait. As a result, the genetic variance expected to be maintained under stabilizing selection decreases very rapidly with increased number of loci. The equilibrium structure expected under stabilizing selection on an additive trait differs markedly from that expected under selection with no constraints on genotypic fitness values. The expected genetic variance, the expected polymorphic fraction of the genome, as well as other quantities of interest, are only weakly dependent on the selection intensity and the level of recombination. PMID:10353920

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic marijuana demand curve.

PubMed

Aston, Elizabeth R; Farris, Samantha G; MacKillop, James; Metrik, Jane

2017-08-01

Drug demand, or relative value, can be assessed via analysis of behavioral economic purchase task performance. Five demand indices are typically obtained from drug purchase tasks. The goal of this research was to determine whether metrics of marijuana reinforcement from a marijuana purchase task (MPT) exhibit a latent factor structure that efficiently characterizes marijuana demand. Participants were regular marijuana users (n = 99; 37.4% female, 71.5% marijuana use days [5 days/week], 15.2% cannabis dependent) who completed study assessments, including the MPT, during a baseline session. Principal component analysis was used to examine the latent structure underlying MPT indices. Concurrent validity was assessed via examination of relationships between latent factors and marijuana use, past quit attempts, and marijuana expectancies. A two-factor solution was confirmed as the best fitting structure, accounting for 88.5% of the overall variance. Factor 1 (65.8% variance) reflected "Persistence," indicating sensitivity to escalating marijuana price, which comprised four MPT indices (elasticity, O max , P max , and breakpoint). Factor 2 (22.7% variance) reflected "Amplitude," indicating the amount consumed at unrestricted price (intensity). Persistence factor scores were associated with fewer past marijuana quit attempts and lower expectancies of negative use outcomes. Amplitude factor scores were associated with more frequent use, dependence symptoms, craving severity, and positive marijuana outcome expectancies. Consistent with research on alcohol and cigarette purchase tasks, the MPT can be characterized with a latent two-factor structure. Thus, demand for marijuana appears to encompass distinct dimensions of price sensitivity and volumetric consumption, with differential relations to other aspects of marijuana motivation.

Negative symptoms in schizophrenia result from a failure to represent the expected value of rewards: Behavioral and computational modeling evidence

PubMed Central

Gold, James M.; Waltz, James A.; Matveeva, Tatyana M.; Kasanova, Zuzana; Strauss, Gregory P.; Herbener, Ellen S.; Collins, Anne G.E.; Frank, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Context Negative symptoms are a core feature of schizophrenia, but their pathophysiology remains unclear. Objective Negative symptoms are defined by the absence of normal function. However, there must be a productive mechanism that leads to this absence. Here, we test a reinforcement learning account suggesting that negative symptoms result from a failure to represent the expected value of rewards coupled with preserved loss avoidance learning. Design Subjects performed a probabilistic reinforcement learning paradigm involving stimulus pairs in which choices resulted in either reward or avoidance of loss. Following training, subjects indicated their valuation of the stimuli in a transfer task. Computational modeling was used to distinguish between alternative accounts of the data. Setting A tertiary care research outpatient clinic. Patients A total of 47 clinically stable patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 28 healthy volunteers participated. Patients were divided into high and low negative symptom groups. Main Outcome measures 1) The number of choices leading to reward or loss avoidance and 2) performance in the transfer phase. Quantitative fits from three different models were examined. Results High negative symptom patients demonstrated impaired learning from rewards but intact loss avoidance learning, and failed to distinguish rewarding stimuli from loss-avoiding stimuli in the transfer phase. Model fits revealed that high negative symptom patients were better characterized by an “actor-critic” model, learning stimulus-response associations, whereas controls and low negative symptom patients incorporated expected value of their actions (“Q-learning”) into the selection process. Conclusions Negative symptoms are associated with a specific reinforcement learning abnormality: High negative symptoms patients do not represent the expected value of rewards when making decisions but learn to avoid punishments through the use of prediction errors. This computational framework offers the potential to understand negative symptoms at a mechanistic level. PMID:22310503

Factors affecting patient valuations of caries prevention: Using and validating the willingness to pay method.

PubMed

Vernazza, Christopher R; Wildman, John R; Steele, Jimmy G; Whitworth, John M; Walls, Angus W G; Perry, Ross; Matthews, Roger; Hahn, Petra; Donaldson, Cam

2015-08-01

Determining the value of, or strength of preference for health care interventions is useful for policy makers in planning health care services. Willingness to pay (WTP) is an established economic technique to determine the strength of preferences for interventions by eliciting monetary valuations from individuals in hypothetical situations. The objective of this study was to elicit WTP values for a dental preventive intervention and to analyze the factors affecting these as well as investigating the validity of the WTP method. Patients aged 40 years plus attending dental practices in the UK and Germany were recruited on a consecutive basis over one month. Participants received information about a novel root caries prevention intervention. They then completed a questionnaire including a WTP task. Where the coating was indicated, patients were offered this for a payment and acceptance was recorded. Analysis included econometric modelling and comparison of expected (based on stated WTP) versus actual behaviour. The mean WTP for the coating was £96.41 (standard deviation 60.61). Econometric models showed that no demographic or dental history factors were significant predictors of WTP. 63% of the sample behaved as expected when using stated WTP to predict whether they would buy the coating. The remainder were split almost equally between those expected to pay but who did not and those who were expected to refuse but paid. Values for a caries preventive intervention had a large and unpredictable variance. In comparing hypothetical versus real preferences both under- and over-valuation occurs. Wide and unpredictable variation in valuations for prevention may mean that there are difficult policy questions around what resource should be allocated to dental prevention and how to target this resource. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life expectancy in bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

2015-08-01

Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we calculated remaining life expectancies for values of age 15, 25, 35 ⃛ 75 years among all individuals alive in year 2000. For the typical male or female patient aged 25 to 45 years, the remaining life expectancy was decreased by 12.0-8.7 years and 10.6-8.3 years, respectively. The ratio between remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously reported. Patients start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Gender-Biased Expectations of Altruism in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Salgado, Mauricio

2018-01-01

Research suggests that women, but not men, manifest gender-biased expectations of altruism: while women expect other women to be more altruistic, men expect women to be as generous as men. Do adolescents expect women and men to behave differently regarding altruism? I analyse adolescents' gender beliefs about altruism using a modified Dictator Game. Results indicate that adolescents believe that others of same gender are more altruistic than others of the opposite gender. I also found that adolescents' agreement with the existence of different societal roles for men and women moderates the relationship between gender and gender beliefs. Although it was expected that adolescents who agree with different gender roles would expect women to be more generous, surprisingly, the results presented here confirm this only for male adolescents, but in the opposite direction: the more male adolescents agree with the existence of different gender roles, the more they seem to believe that men are more generous than women. Meanwhile, female adolescents believe that women are more altruistic unconditionally. Thus, the previously documented bias seems to be already in place during adolescence, above and beyond other confounding factors. Adolescents' in-group bias, and their socialization into different cultural values regarding gender roles are discussed as potential explanatory mechanisms for these gender beliefs. PMID:29692749

Hippocampal neural correlates for values of experienced events.

PubMed

Lee, Hyunjung; Ghim, Jeong-Wook; Kim, Hoseok; Lee, Daeyeol; Jung, MinWhan

2012-10-24

Newly experienced events are often remembered together with how rewarding the experiences are personally. Although the hippocampus is a candidate structure where subjective values are integrated with other elements of episodic memory, it is uncertain whether and how the hippocampus processes value-related information. We examined how activity of dorsal CA1 and dorsal subicular neurons in rats performing a dynamic foraging task was related to reward values that were estimated using a reinforcement learning model. CA1 neurons carried significant signals related to action values before the animal revealed its choice behaviorally, indicating that the information on the expected values of potential choice outcomes was available in CA1. Moreover, after the outcome of the animal's goal choice was revealed, CA1 neurons carried robust signals for the value of chosen action and they temporally overlapped with the signals related to the animal's goal choice and its outcome, indicating that all the signals necessary to evaluate the outcome of an experienced event converged in CA1. On the other hand, value-related signals were substantially weaker in the subiculum. These results suggest a major role of CA1 in adding values to experienced events during episodic memory encoding. Given that CA1 neuronal activity is modulated by diverse attributes of an experienced event, CA1 might be a place where all the elements of episodic memory are integrated.

Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

PubMed Central

Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

2012-01-01

Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

PubMed

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J; Barton, Jason J S

2012-01-01

There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

A Tale of Two Limpets (Patella vulgata and Patella stellaeformis): Evaluating a New Proxy for Late Holocene Climate Change in Coastal Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenger, T. L.; Surge, D. M.; Schoene, B. R.; Carter, J. G.; Milner, N.

2006-12-01

Shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, from Late Holocene archaeological deposits potentially contain critical information about climate change in coastal areas. Before deciphering climate information preserved in these zooarchaeological records, we studied the controls on oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) in modern specimens. We tested the hypothesis that P. vulgata precipitates its shell in isotopic equilibrium with ambient water by comparing δ18OSHELL with expected values. Expected δ18OSHELL was constructed using the calcite-water fractionation equation, observed sea surface temperature (SST), and assuming δ18OWATER is +0.10‰ (VSMOW). Comparison between expected and measured δ18OSHELL revealed a +1.51±0.21‰ (VPDB) offset from expected values. Consequently, estimated SST calculated from δ18OSHELL was 6.50±2.45°C lower than observed SST. However, because the offset was relatively uniform, an adjustment can be made to account for this predictable vital effect and past SST can be reliably reconstructed. To further investigate the source of offset in this genus, we analyzed a fully marine tropical species (Patella stellaeformis) to minimize seasonal variation in environmental factors that influence δ18OSHELL. P. stellaeformis was evaluated to determine whether it has a similar offset from equilibrium as P. vulgata. We tested the hypotheses that: (1) δ18OSHELL in tropical species also displays vital effects; and (2) the offset from equilibrium (if any) would be constant and predictable. Our results indicated: (1) aragonite comprises most of P. stellaeformis' shell; and (2) δ18OSHELL is statistically indistinguishable from expected values calculated using the aragonite-water fractionation equation (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic=0.61, D0.05[56, 57]=1.36) in contrast with our observations in P. vulgata. Differences in mineralogy or growth rates at different latitudes may play a role in mechanisms that influence vital effects.

Gifted or Not, Parental Perceptions Are the Same: A Study of Chinese American Parental Perceptions of Their Children's Academic Achievement and Home Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Wenzhong

2007-01-01

This study offers insight into the perceptions of a group of Chinese American parents, many of whom have children who excel at school. The results indicate that the Chinese American parents had high expectations of their children's educational success, placed high value on education and effort, tended to sacrifice for their children's education,…

A Practical Measure of Student Motivation: Establishing Validity Evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost Scale in Middle School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kosovich, Jeff J.; Hulleman, Chris S.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Getty, Steve

2015-01-01

We present validity evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost (EVC) Scale of student motivation. Using a brief, 10-item scale, we measured middle school students' expectancy, value, and cost for their math and science classes in the Fall and Winter of the same academic year. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the three-factor structure of the EVC…

Purchasing Over-the-counter medicines from Australian pharmacy: What do the pharmacy customers value and expect?

PubMed

Chan, Vincent; Tran, Hung

2016-01-01

Over-the-counter medicines (OTC) are widely available and can be purchased without a prescription. Their availability means that a customer may choose to purchase them without the involvement of a pharmacy/pharmacist. It is important to understand customer OTC purchasing perceptions and behaviour from a pharmacy to better understand the needs and opportunities in this space. This study aimed to examine customers' key expectations and what they value when purchasing OTC and how the effect of health status/stress and perceived risks/benefits of purchasing OTCs from a pharmacy may influence their OTC shopping behaviour. Customers from two metropolitan pharmacies across two different suburbs in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia completed a self-administered questionnaire. Data collection was conducted over a six-week period. The questionnaire examined demographics, current level of health and stress, as well as a range of questions (seven-point Likert-scale) examining perceived benefits and risks, what they value, trust and expect when purchasing OTC. A total of 86 customers from a broad range of demographics were captured in this study. When asked about their current health state, 41% and 23% respectively indicated that they were stressed and tense when they arrived at the pharmacy but many were feeling well (38%). Most customers strongly agreed/agreed that trust in the advice from a pharmacy (96%), trust in the products (73%), and the altruistic approach of a pharmacy (95%) were critical to them. Further, 82% and 78% respectively disagreed that time pressures or costs were concerns, despite many feeling tense and stressed when they came in. When asked where they intend to buy their future OTC, 89% indicated pharmacy instead of a supermarket. High levels of trust, confidence and sense of altruism and care were key factors for customers buying OTC from a pharmacy, regardless of time pressures, costs or existing levels of stress and health.

Purchasing Over-the-counter medicines from Australian pharmacy: What do the pharmacy customers value and expect?

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background: Over-the-counter medicines (OTC) are widely available and can be purchased without a prescription. Their availability means that a customer may choose to purchase them without the involvement of a pharmacy/pharmacist. It is important to understand customer OTC purchasing perceptions and behaviour from a pharmacy to better understand the needs and opportunities in this space. Objective: This study aimed to examine customers’ key expectations and what they value when purchasing OTC and how the effect of health status/stress and perceived risks/benefits of purchasing OTCs from a pharmacy may influence their OTC shopping behaviour. Methods: Customers from two metropolitan pharmacies across two different suburbs in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia completed a self-administered questionnaire. Data collection was conducted over a six-week period. The questionnaire examined demographics, current level of health and stress, as well as a range of questions (seven-point Likert-scale) examining perceived benefits and risks, what they value, trust and expect when purchasing OTC. Results: A total of 86 customers from a broad range of demographics were captured in this study. When asked about their current health state, 41% and 23% respectively indicated that they were stressed and tense when they arrived at the pharmacy but many were feeling well (38%). Most customers strongly agreed/agreed that trust in the advice from a pharmacy (96%), trust in the products (73%), and the altruistic approach of a pharmacy (95%) were critical to them. Further, 82% and 78% respectively disagreed that time pressures or costs were concerns, despite many feeling tense and stressed when they came in. When asked where they intend to buy their future OTC, 89% indicated pharmacy instead of a supermarket. Conclusions: High levels of trust, confidence and sense of altruism and care were key factors for customers buying OTC from a pharmacy, regardless of time pressures, costs or existing levels of stress and health. PMID:27785164

Stable Isotope Analysis Reveals Detrital Resource Base Sources of the Tree Hole Mosquito, Aedes triseriatus

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Michael G.; Pelz-Stelinski, Kirsten S.; Yee, Donald A.; Juliano, Steven A.; Ostrom, Peggy H.; Walker, Edward D.

2010-01-01

1. Detritus that forms the basis for mosquito production in tree hole ecosystems can vary in type and timing of input. We investigated the contributions of plant- and animal-derived detritus to the biomass of Aedes triseriatus (Say) pupae and adults by using stable isotope (15N and 13C) techniques in lab experiments and field collections. 2. Lab-reared mosquito isotope values reflected their detrital resource base, providing a clear distinction between mosquitoes reared on plant or animal detritus. 3. Isotope values from field-collected pupae were intermediate between what would be expected if a single (either plant or animal) detrital source dominated the resource base. However, mosquito isotope values clustered most closely with plant-derived values, and a mixed feeding model analysis indicated tree floral parts contributed approximately 80% of mosquito biomass. The mixed model also indicated that animal detritus contributed approximately 30% of mosquito tissue nitrogen. 4. Pupae collected later in the season generally had isotope values that were consistent with an increased contribution from animal detritus, suggesting this resource became more nutritionally important for mosquitoes as plant inputs declined over the summer. PMID:21132121

Use of tolerance values to diagnose water-quality stressors to aquatic biota in New England streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meador, M.R.; Carlisle, D.M.; Coles, J.F.

2008-01-01

Identification of stressors related to biological impairment is critical to biological assessments. We applied nationally derived tolerance indicator values for four water-quality variables to fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 29 sites along an urban gradient in New England. Tolerance indicator values (TIVs), as biologically based predictors of water-quality variables, were determined for dissolved oxygen, nitrite plus nitrate (nitrate), total phosphorus, and water temperature for each site based on observed biological assemblages (TIVO), and for expected assemblages (TIVE). The quotient method, based on a ratio of the TIVs for observed and expected assemblages (tolerance units), was used to diagnose potential water-quality stressors. In addition, the ratio of measured water-quality values to water-quality criteria (water-quality units) was calculated for each water-quality variable to assess measured water-quality stressors. Results from a RIVPACS predictive model for benthic macroinvertebrates and Bray-Curtis dissimilarity for fish were used to classify sites into categories of good or impaired ecological condition. Significant differences were detected between good and impaired sites for all biological tolerance units (fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages averaged) except for nitrate (P = 0.480), and for all water-quality units except for nitrate (P = 0.183). Diagnosis of water-quality stressors at selected sites was, in general, consistent with State-reported causes of impairment. Tolerance units for benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages were significantly correlated for water temperature (P = 0.001, r = 0.63), dissolved oxygen (P = 0.001, r = 0.61), and total phosphorus (P = 0.001, r = 0.61), but not for nitrate (P = 0.059, r = -0.35). Differences between the two assemblages in site-specific diagnosis of water-quality stressors may be the result of differences in nitrate tolerance.

Interpreting the Strongly Lensed Supernova iPTF16geu: Time Delay Predictions, Microlensing, and Lensing Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

More, Anupreeta; Oguri, Masamune; More, Surhud

2017-02-01

We present predictions for time delays between multiple images of the gravitationally lensed supernova, iPTF16geu, which was recently discovered from the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF). As the supernova is of Type Ia where the intrinsic luminosity is usually well known, accurately measured time delays of the multiple images could provide tight constraints on the Hubble constant. According to our lens mass models constrained by the Hubble Space Telescope F814W image, we expect the maximum relative time delay to be less than a day, which is consistent with the maximum of 100 hr reported by Goobar et al. but placesmore » a stringent upper limit. Furthermore, the fluxes of most of the supernova images depart from expected values suggesting that they are affected by microlensing. The microlensing timescales are small enough that they may pose significant problems to measure the time delays reliably. Our lensing rate calculation indicates that the occurrence of a lensed SN in iPTF is likely. However, the observed total magnification of iPTF16geu is larger than expected, given its redshift. This may be a further indication of ongoing microlensing in this system.« less

The Role of Laser Additive Manufacturing Methods of Metals in Repair, Refurbishment and Remanufacturing - Enabling Circular Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leino, Maija; Pekkarinen, Joonas; Soukka, Risto

Circular economy is an economy model where products, components, and materials are aimed to be kept at their highest utility and value at all times. Repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing processes are procedures aiming at returning the value of the product during its life cycle. Additive manufacturing (AM) is expected to be an enabling technology in circular economy based business models. One of AM process that enables repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing is Directed Energy Deposition. Respectively Powder Bed Fusion enables manufacturing of replacement components on demand. The aim of this study is to identify the current research findings and state of art of utilizing AM in repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing processes of metallic products. The focus is in identifying possibilities of AM in promotion of circular economy and expected environmental benefits based on the found literature. Results of the study indicate significant potential in utilizing AM in repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing activities.

A comparison of analysis methods to estimate contingency strength.

PubMed

Lloyd, Blair P; Staubitz, Johanna L; Tapp, Jon T

2018-05-09

To date, several data analysis methods have been used to estimate contingency strength, yet few studies have compared these methods directly. To compare the relative precision and sensitivity of four analysis methods (i.e., exhaustive event-based, nonexhaustive event-based, concurrent interval, concurrent+lag interval), we applied all methods to a simulated data set in which several response-dependent and response-independent schedules of reinforcement were programmed. We evaluated the degree to which contingency strength estimates produced from each method (a) corresponded with expected values for response-dependent schedules and (b) showed sensitivity to parametric manipulations of response-independent reinforcement. Results indicated both event-based methods produced contingency strength estimates that aligned with expected values for response-dependent schedules, but differed in sensitivity to response-independent reinforcement. The precision of interval-based methods varied by analysis method (concurrent vs. concurrent+lag) and schedule type (continuous vs. partial), and showed similar sensitivities to response-independent reinforcement. Recommendations and considerations for measuring contingencies are identified. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

New approaches to ranking countries for the allocation of development assistance for health: choices, indicators and implications

PubMed Central

Ottersen, Trygve; Grépin, Karen A; Henderson, Klara; Pinkstaff, Crossley Beth; Norheim, Ole Frithjof; Røttingen, John-Arne

2018-01-01

Abstract The distributions of income and health within and across countries are changing. This challenges the way donors allocate development assistance for health (DAH) and particularly the role of gross national income per capita (GNIpc) in classifying countries to determine whether countries are eligible to receive assistance and how much they receive. Informed by a literature review and stakeholder consultations and interviews, we developed a stepwise approach to the design and assessment of country classification frameworks for the allocation of DAH, with emphasis on critical value choices. We devised 25 frameworks, all which combined GNIpc and at least one other indicator into an index. Indicators were selected and assessed based on relevance, salience, validity, consistency, and availability and timeliness, where relevance concerned the extent to which the indicator represented country’s health needs, domestic capacity, the expected impact of DAH, or equity. We assessed how the use of the different frameworks changed the rankings of low- and middle-income countries relative to a country’s ranking based on GNIpc alone. We found that stakeholders generally considered needs to be the most important concern to be captured by classification frameworks, followed by inequality, expected impact and domestic capacity. We further found that integrating a health-needs indicator with GNIpc makes a significant difference for many countries and country categories—and especially middle-income countries with high burden of unmet health needs—while the choice of specific indicator makes less difference. This together with assessments of relevance, salience, validity, consistency, and availability and timeliness suggest that donors have reasons to include a health-needs indicator in the initial classification of countries. It specifically suggests that life expectancy and disability-adjusted life year rate are indicators worth considering. Indicators related to other concerns may be mainly relevant at different stages of the decision-making process, require better data, or both. PMID:29415238

Pinch current limitation effect in plasma focus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, S.; Saw, S. H.; INTI International University College, 71800 Nilai

The Lee model couples the electrical circuit with plasma focus dynamics, thermodynamics, and radiation. It is used to design and simulate experiments. A beam-target mechanism is incorporated, resulting in realistic neutron yield scaling with pinch current and increasing its versatility for investigating all Mather-type machines. Recent runs indicate a previously unsuspected 'pinch current limitation' effect. The pinch current does not increase beyond a certain value however low the static inductance is reduced to. The results indicate that decreasing the present static inductance of the PF1000 machine will neither increase the pinch current nor the neutron yield, contrary to expectations.

Aqueous solubilities, vapor pressures, and 1-octanol-water partition coefficients for C9-C14 linear alkylbenzenes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherblom, P.M.; Gschwend, P.M.; Eganhouse, R.P.

1992-01-01

Measurements and estimates of aqueous solubilities, 1-octanol-water partition coefficients (Kow), and vapor pressures were made for 29 linear alkylbenzenes having alkyl chain lengths of 9-14 carbons. The ranges of values observed were vapor pressures from 0.002 to 0.418 Pa, log Kow, from 6.83 to 9.95, and aqueous solubilities from 4 to 38 nmol??L-1. Measured values exhibited a relationship to both the alkyl chain length and the position of phenyl substitution on the alkyl chain. Measurement of the aqueous concentrations resulting from equilibration of a mixture of alkylbenzenes yielded higher than expected values, indicating cosolute or other interactive effects caused enhanced aqueous concentrations of these compounds. ?? 1992 American Chemical Society.

Evaluation of non-animal methods for assessing skin sensitisation hazard: A Bayesian Value-of-Information analysis.

PubMed

Leontaridou, Maria; Gabbert, Silke; Van Ierland, Ekko C; Worth, Andrew P; Landsiedel, Robert

2016-07-01

This paper offers a Bayesian Value-of-Information (VOI) analysis for guiding the development of non-animal testing strategies, balancing information gains from testing with the expected social gains and costs from the adoption of regulatory decisions. Testing is assumed to have value, if, and only if, the information revealed from testing triggers a welfare-improving decision on the use (or non-use) of a substance. As an illustration, our VOI model is applied to a set of five individual non-animal prediction methods used for skin sensitisation hazard assessment, seven battery combinations of these methods, and 236 sequential 2-test and 3-test strategies. Their expected values are quantified and compared to the expected value of the local lymph node assay (LLNA) as the animal method. We find that battery and sequential combinations of non-animal prediction methods reveal a significantly higher expected value than the LLNA. This holds for the entire range of prior beliefs. Furthermore, our results illustrate that the testing strategy with the highest expected value does not necessarily have to follow the order of key events in the sensitisation adverse outcome pathway (AOP). 2016 FRAME.

Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept.

PubMed

Cooper, Katelyn M; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E

2017-01-01

There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning.

Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept

PubMed Central

Cooper, Katelyn M.; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E.

2017-01-01

There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning. PMID:28861130

Spread of status value: Rewards and the creation of status characteristics.

PubMed

Harkness, Sarah K

2017-01-01

Rewards have social significance and are highly esteemed objects, but what does their ownership signify to others? Prior work has demonstrated it may be possible for these rewards to spread their status to those who possess them, such that individuals gain or lose status and influence by virtue of the rewards they display. Yet, is this spread enough to produce entirely new status characteristics by virtue of their association with rewards? I propose a theoretical extension of the spread of status value theory and offer an experimental test considering whether the status value conveyed by rewards spreads to a new, nominal characteristic of those who come to possess these objects. The results indicate that states of a nominal characteristic do gain or lose status value and behavioral influence through their association with differentially valued rewards. Thus, rewards can create new status characteristics with resulting behavioral expectations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Values, attitudes and perceptions of managers as predictors of corporate environmental responsiveness.

PubMed

Papagiannakis, Giorgos; Lioukas, Spyros

2012-06-15

We examine whether managers' values, attitudes, and perceptions influence the greening of organizations. To that purpose, we specify and test a model of corporate environmental responsiveness (CER), drawing upon a modified version of the theory of planned behavior and the value-belief-norm theory. Based on survey data from 142 Greek companies, we find that top managers' personal values influence responses indirectly, through shaping their environmental attitudes, while direct relationship is not significant. Subjective norms, expressing stakeholder expectations, do affect CER, with their effect being stronger than that of attitudes. Managers' perceived ability to handle environmental issues also appears to influence responses. Results have theoretical implications, indicating the significant role of managers' values, attitudes and perceptions in a firm's environmental response. Practical implications are discussed in relation to selection of managers and training. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hamiltonian approach to Ehrenfest expectation values and Gaussian quantum states

PubMed Central

Bonet-Luz, Esther

2016-01-01

The dynamics of quantum expectation values is considered in a geometric setting. First, expectation values of the canonical observables are shown to be equivariant momentum maps for the action of the Heisenberg group on quantum states. Then, the Hamiltonian structure of Ehrenfest’s theorem is shown to be Lie–Poisson for a semidirect-product Lie group, named the Ehrenfest group. The underlying Poisson structure produces classical and quantum mechanics as special limit cases. In addition, quantum dynamics is expressed in the frame of the expectation values, in which the latter undergo canonical Hamiltonian motion. In the case of Gaussian states, expectation values dynamics couples to second-order moments, which also enjoy a momentum map structure. Eventually, Gaussian states are shown to possess a Lie–Poisson structure associated with another semidirect-product group, which is called the Jacobi group. This structure produces the energy-conserving variant of a class of Gaussian moment models that have previously appeared in the chemical physics literature. PMID:27279764

Exenatide versus insulin glargine in patients with type 2 diabetes in the UK: a model of long-term clinical and cost outcomes.

PubMed

Ray, Joshua A; Boye, Kristina S; Yurgin, Nicole; Valentine, William J; Roze, Stéphane; McKendrick, Jan; Tucker, Daniel M D; Foos, Volker; Palmer, Andrew J

2007-03-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical and economic outcomes associated with exenatide or insulin glargine, added to oral therapy in individuals with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with combination oral agents in the UK setting. A published and validated computer simulation model of diabetes was used to project long-term complications, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy and direct medical costs. Probabilities of diabetes-related complications were derived from published sources. Treatment effects and patient characteristics were extracted from a recent randomised controlled trial comparing exenatide with insulin glargine. Simulations incorporated published quality of life utilities and UK-specific costs from 2004. Pharmacy costs for exenatide were based on 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100% of the US value (as no price for the UK was available at the time of analysis). Future costs and clinical benefits were discounted at 3.5% annually. Sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base-case analysis exenatide was associated with improvements in life expectancy of 0.057 years and in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.442 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) versus insulin glargine. Long-term projections demonstrated that exenatide was associated with a lower cumulative incidence of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications and CVD-related death than insulin glargine. Using the range of cost values, evaluation results showed that exenatide is likely to fall in a range between dominant (cost and life saving) at 20% of the US price and cost-effective (with an ICER of 22,420 pounds per QALY gained) at 100% of the US price, versus insulin glargine. Based on the findings of a recent clinical trial, long-term projections indicated that exenatide is likely to be associated with improvement in life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy compared to insulin glargine. The results from this modelling analysis suggest that that exenatide is likely to represent good value for money by generally accepted standards in the UK setting in individuals with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled on oral therapy.

Updated folate data in the Dutch Food Composition Database and implications for intake estimates

PubMed Central

Westenbrink, Susanne; Jansen-van der Vliet, Martine; van Rossum, Caroline

2012-01-01

Background and objective Nutrient values are influenced by the analytical method used. Food folate measured by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) or by microbiological assay (MA) yield different results, with in general higher results from MA than from HPLC. This leads to the question of how to deal with different analytical methods in compiling standardised and internationally comparable food composition databases? A recent inventory on folate in European food composition databases indicated that currently MA is more widely used than HPCL. Since older Dutch values are produced by HPLC and newer values by MA, analytical methods and procedures for compiling folate data in the Dutch Food Composition Database (NEVO) were reconsidered and folate values were updated. This article describes the impact of this revision of folate values in the NEVO database as well as the expected impact on the folate intake assessment in the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey (DNFCS). Design The folate values were revised by replacing HPLC with MA values from recent Dutch analyses. Previously MA folate values taken from foreign food composition tables had been recalculated to the HPLC level, assuming a 27% lower value from HPLC analyses. These recalculated values were replaced by the original MA values. Dutch HPLC and MA values were compared to each other. Folate intake was assessed for a subgroup within the DNFCS to estimate the impact of the update. Results In the updated NEVO database nearly all folate values were produced by MA or derived from MA values which resulted in an average increase of 24%. The median habitual folate intake in young children was increased by 11–15% using the updated folate values. Conclusion The current approach for folate in NEVO resulted in more transparency in data production and documentation and higher comparability among European databases. Results of food consumption surveys are expected to show higher folate intakes when using the updated values. PMID:22481900

Long-term persistence of solar activity. [Abstract only

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan; Robinson, Paul

1994-01-01

The solar irradiance has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiance of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earth's climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected? We examine the question of the persistence of non-periodic variations in solar activity. The Huerst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969), is evaluated for the series of C-14 data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD (Stuiver and Pearson, 1986). We find a constant Huerst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range of from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H approximately equal to 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process (Ruzmaikin et al., 1992), and that is is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths. We conclude that the time period over which an irradiance change of 0.5% can be expected to occur is significantly shorter than that which would be expected for variations produced by a white-noise process.

A road safety performance indicator for vehicle fleet compatibility.

PubMed

Christoph, Michiel; Vis, Martijn Alexander; Rackliff, Lucy; Stipdonk, Henk

2013-11-01

This paper discusses the development and the application of a safety performance indicator which measures the intrinsic safety of a country's vehicle fleet related to fleet composition. The indicator takes into account both the 'relative severity' of individual collisions between different vehicle types, and the share of those vehicle types within a country's fleet. The relative severity is a measure for the personal damage that can be expected from a collision between two vehicles of any type, relative to that of a collision between passenger cars. It is shown how this number can be calculated using vehicle mass only. A sensitivity analysis is performed to study the dependence of the indicator on parameter values and basic assumptions made. The indicator is easy to apply and satisfies the requirements for appropriate safety performance indicators. It was developed in such a way that it specifically scores the intrinsic safety of a fleet due to its composition, without being influenced by other factors, like helmet wearing. For the sake of simplicity, and since the required data is available throughout Europe, the indicator was applied to the relative share of three of the main vehicle types: passenger cars, heavy goods vehicles and motorcycles. Using the vehicle fleet data from 13EU Member States and Norway, the indicator was used to rank the countries' safety performance. The UK was found to perform best in terms of its fleet composition (value is 1.07), while Greece has the worst performance with the highest indicator value (1.41). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impaired Expected Value Computations Coupled With Overreliance on Stimulus-Response Learning in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Hernaus, Dennis; Gold, James M; Waltz, James A; Frank, Michael J

2018-04-03

While many have emphasized impaired reward prediction error signaling in schizophrenia, multiple studies suggest that some decision-making deficits may arise from overreliance on stimulus-response systems together with a compromised ability to represent expected value. Guided by computational frameworks, we formulated and tested two scenarios in which maladaptive representations of expected value should be most evident, thereby delineating conditions that may evoke decision-making impairments in schizophrenia. In a modified reinforcement learning paradigm, 42 medicated people with schizophrenia and 36 healthy volunteers learned to select the most frequently rewarded option in a 75-25 pair: once when presented with a more deterministic (90-10) pair and once when presented with a more probabilistic (60-40) pair. Novel and old combinations of choice options were presented in a subsequent transfer phase. Computational modeling was employed to elucidate contributions from stimulus-response systems (actor-critic) and expected value (Q-learning). People with schizophrenia showed robust performance impairments with increasing value difference between two competing options, which strongly correlated with decreased contributions from expected value-based learning (Q-learning). Moreover, a subtle yet consistent contextual choice bias for the probabilistic 75 option was present in people with schizophrenia, which could be accounted for by a context-dependent reward prediction error in the actor-critic. We provide evidence that decision-making impairments in schizophrenia increase monotonically with demands placed on expected value computations. A contextual choice bias is consistent with overreliance on stimulus-response learning, which may signify a deficit secondary to the maladaptive representation of expected value. These results shed new light on conditions under which decision-making impairments may arise. Copyright © 2018 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparing multistate expected damages, option price and cumulative prospect measures for valuing flood protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrow, Scott; Scott, Michael

2013-05-01

Floods are risky events ranging from small to catastrophic. Although expected flood damages are frequently used for economic policy analysis, alternative measures such as option price (OP) and cumulative prospect value exist. The empirical magnitude of these measures whose theoretical preference is ambiguous is investigated using case study data from Baltimore City. The outcome for the base case OP measure increases mean willingness to pay over the expected damage value by about 3%, a value which is increased with greater risk aversion, reduced by increased wealth, and only slightly altered by higher limits of integration. The base measure based on cumulative prospect theory is about 46% less than expected damages with estimates declining when alternative parameters are used. The method of aggregation is shown to be important in the cumulative prospect case which can lead to an estimate up to 41% larger than expected damages. Expected damages remain a plausible and the most easily computed measure for analysts.

On the Myths of Indicator Species: Issues and Further Consideration in the Use of Static Concepts for Ecological Applications

PubMed Central

Zettler, Michael L.; Proffitt, C. Edward; Darr, Alexander; Degraer, Steven; Devriese, Lisa; Greathead, Clare; Kotta, Jonne; Magni, Paolo; Martin, Georg; Reiss, Henning; Speybroeck, Jeroen; Tagliapietra, Davide; Van Hoey, Gert; Ysebaert, Tom

2013-01-01

The use of static indicator species, in which species are expected to have a similar sensitivity or tolerance to either natural or human-induced stressors, does not account for possible shifts in tolerance along natural environmental gradients and between biogeographic regions. Their indicative value may therefore be considered at least questionable. In this paper we demonstrate how species responses (i.e. abundance) to changes in sediment grain size and organic matter (OM) alter along a salinity gradient and conclude with a plea for prudency when interpreting static indicator-based quality indices. Six model species (three polychaetes, one amphipod and two bivalves) from the North Sea, Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea region were selected. Our study demonstrated that there were no generic relationships between environment and biota and half of the studied species showed different responses in different seas. Consequently, the following points have to be carefully considered when applying static indicator-based quality indices: (1) species tolerances and preferences may change along environmental gradients and between different biogeographic regions, (2) as environment modifies species autecology, there is a need to adjust indicator species lists along major environmental gradients and (3) there is a risk of including sibling or cryptic species in calculating the index value of a species. PMID:24147123

Genetic Diversity in Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Aggregations in Southeastern Brazil

PubMed Central

Fonseca, A. S.; Oliveira, E.J.F.; Freitas, G.S.; Assis, A.F.; Souza, C.C.M.; Contel, E.P.B.; Soares, A.E.E.

2017-01-01

The Meliponini, also known as stingless bees, are distributed in tropical and subtropical areas of the world and plays an essential role in pollinating many wild plants and crops These bees can build nests in cavities of trees or walls, underground or in associations with ants or termites; interestingly, these nests are sometimes found in aggregations. In order to assess the genetic diversity and structure in aggregates of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Lepeletier), samples of this species were collected from six aggregations and genetically analyzed for eight specific microsatellite loci. We observed in this analysis that the mean genetic diversity value among aggregations was 0.354, and the mean expected and observed heterozygosity values was 0.414 and 0.283, respectively. The statistically significant Fis value indicated an observed heterozygosity lower than the expected heterozygosity in all loci studied resulting in high homozygosis level in these populations. In addition, the low number of private alleles observed reinforces the absence of structuring that is seen in the aggregates. These results can provide relevant information about genetic diversity in aggregations of N. testaceicornis and contribute to the management and conservation of these bees’ species that are critical for the pollination process. PMID:28130454

Attitudes and values expected of public health nursing students at graduation: A delphi study.

PubMed

Okura, Mika; Takizawa, Hiroko

2018-06-01

The skills and knowledge of the competencies expected of public health nursing (PHN) students at graduation have been clarified; however, the attitudes and values have not yet been studied in Japan. The objective of this study was to identify and reach a consensus among experts on the attitudes and values expected of PHN students at graduation. This survey was conducted as a two-stage Delphi study. We selected the following experts: 248 teachers in the faculty of public health nursing at a university as academic experts, and 250 public health nurses who were also experienced clinical instructors as clinical experts. The round 1 mailed survey was conducted using a questionnaire about the necessity and importance of attitudes and values, and 211 experts responded (42.4%, clinical; n = 124, academic; n = 87). In the Round 2 survey, the experts consisted of 60.2% of the round 1 participants (clinical; n = 73, academic; n = 54). Descriptive statistics were used for multiple imputation. We identified a total of 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, and reached ≥90% consensus for most items (except for one). Regarding the expected achievement level at graduation, there was no difference between clinical and academic experts except for one item. Consensus was clearly achieved for 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, as well as importance and expected achievement level at graduation. In the future, it is important to examine strategies that can effectively develop these attitudes and values through basic and continuous education. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are small, but generally consistent with the detected trends of the 20th century. Based on the simulations, extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and more frequent in winter, while a general decrease of extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer.

The Correlation between Gifted Students' Cost and Task Value Perceptions towards Mathematics: The Mediating Role of Expectancy Belief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kurnaz, Ahmet

2018-01-01

In this study whether the expectancy belief has a mediating role in the correlation between cost value perception and task value perception of gifted students towards mathematics was examined. It is predicted that the correlation between cost value and task value perceptions of gifted students towards mathematics can change according to their…

Expectancy beliefs and perceived values of Chinese college students in physical education and physical activity.

PubMed

Chen, Ang; Liu, Xinlan

2008-03-01

The expectancy-value theory postulates that motivation relies on individuals' beliefs of success, perceived Attainment, Intrinsic Interest, and Utility values and Cost. This study examined Chinese college students' expectancy-value motivation in relation to physical education and self-initiated physical activity. A random sample of 368 Chinese university students responded to questionnaires on perceived expectancy beliefs, perceived values, and cost in terms of their experiences in mandatory physical education programs and in self-initiated after-school physical activity. They reported their choice decisions for continuing physical education. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, X2, logistic and linear regressions. The physical education curriculum was perceived as a major cost to motivation. Motivated by the Intrinsic Interest and Utility value, most students chose to continue to take physical education. Self-initiated after-school physical activity was motivated by the Attainment value only. No association was found between self-initiated physical activity and Liking or Disliking of physical education. Motivation for physical education and for self-initiated physical activity derived from different perceived values. The Attainment value motivates the students for self-initiated physical activity, whereas Intrinsic Interest and Utility values motivate them to choose to continue physical education.

Hough transform method for track finding in center drift chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azmi, K. A. Mohammad Kamal; Wan Abdullah, W. A. T.; Ibrahim, Zainol Abidin

2016-01-01

Hough transform is a global tracking method used which had been expected to be faster approach for tracking the circular pattern of electron moving in Center Drift Chamber (CDC), by transforming the point of hit into a circular curve. This paper present the implementation of hough transform method for the reconstruction of tracks in Center Drift Chamber (CDC) which have been generated by random number in C language programming. Result from implementation of this method shows higher peak of circle parameter value (xc,yc,rc) that indicate the similarity value of the parameter needed for circular track in CDC for charged particles in the region of CDC.

Risk-dependent reward value signal in human prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Tobler, Philippe N.; Christopoulos, George I.; O'Doherty, John P.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Schultz, Wolfram

2009-01-01

When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the expected value and risk of each option, and choose the one with the higher utility. Expected value increases the expected utility of an option for all individuals. Risk increases the utility of an option for risk-seeking individuals, but decreases it for risk averse individuals. In 2 separate experiments, one involving imperative (no-choice), the other choice situations, we investigated how predicted risk and expected value aggregate into a common reward signal in the human brain. Blood oxygen level dependent responses in lateral regions of the prefrontal cortex increased monotonically with increasing reward value in the absence of risk in both experiments. Risk enhanced these responses in risk-seeking participants, but reduced them in risk-averse participants. The aggregate value and risk responses in lateral prefrontal cortex contrasted with pure value signals independent of risk in the striatum. These results demonstrate an aggregate risk and value signal in the prefrontal cortex that would be compatible with basic assumptions underlying the mean-variance approach to utility. PMID:19369207

Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

PubMed Central

Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

2016-01-01

Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1–10 points with the goal being to maximize their score on a later memory test. Half of the participants were told to expect a recognition test after each list, while the other half were told to expect a recall test. After several lists of receiving tests congruent with expectations, participants studying for a recognition test instead received an unexpected recall test. In Experiment 1, participants who had studied for a recognition test recalled less of the valuable information than participants anticipating the recall format. These participants continued to attend less to item value on future (expected) recall tests than participants who had only ever experienced recall testing. When the recognition tests were made more demanding in Experiment 2, value-based recall improved relative to Experiment 1: though memory for the valuable information remained superior when participants studied with the expectation of having to recall the information, there were no longer significant differences after accounting for recall testing experience. Thus, recall-based testing encouraged strategic, value-based encoding and enhanced retrieval of important information, while recognition testing in some cases limited value-based study and memory. These results extend prior work concerning the impact of testing expectations on memory, offering further insight into how people study important information. PMID:28095010

Assessment of Self-Efficacy in Systems Engineering as an Indicator of Competency Level Achievement

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

11  C.  RESEARCH ON SELF-EFFICACY IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY —A PARALLEL TO SYSTEMS ENGINEERING ......13  1.  Stakeholder Analysis...Expectancy value theory FA Factor analysis IT Information technology KSA Knowledge, skills, abilities MIS Management information systems NPS...item in particular reflected statistically significant pre- and post-survey results at p<.001, which was the student’s ability to pick a technology for

Heat Treatment Investigation of 4330 Vanadium-Modified Steel

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-08-01

the desired properties, using the results from the tensile and subsized Charpy impact tests on the 1 2-inch-diameter stock our further investigations...for the subsized Charpy specimens is shown graphically in Appendix C as a function of tempering temperature. This data gave a good indication that the... Charpy energy for full-sized specimens (0.394-inch-square cross section) would be near our expected values. Due to the dimensions of the subsized

Mental health treatment outcome expectancies in Burundi.

PubMed

Irankunda, Pacifique; Heatherington, Laurie

2017-02-01

Best practices in global mental health stress the importance of understanding local values and beliefs. Research demonstrates that expectancies about the effectiveness of a given treatment significantly predicts outcome, beyond the treatment effect itself. To help inform the development of mental health interventions in Burundi, we studied expectancies about the effectiveness of four treatments: spiritual healing, traditional healing, medication, and selected evidence-based psychosocial treatments widely used in the US. Treatment expectancies were assessed for each of three key syndromes identified by previous research: akabonge (a set of depression-like symptoms), guhahamuka (a set of trauma-related symptoms), and ibisigo (a set of psychosis-like symptoms) . In individual interviews or written surveys in French or Kirundi with patients ( N = 198) awaiting treatment at the clinic, we described each disorder and the treatments in everyday language, asking standard efficacy expectations questions about each ("Would it work?" "Why or why not?"). Findings indicated uniformly high expectancies about the efficacy of spiritual treatment, relatively high expectancies for western evidence-based treatments (especially cognitive behavior therapy [CBT] for depression-like symptoms), lower expectancies for medicine, and especially low expectancies for traditional healing (except for traditional healing for psychosis-like symptoms). There were significant effects of gender but not of education level. Qualitative analyses of explanations provide insight into the basis of people's beliefs, their explanations about why a given treatment would or would not work varied by type of disorder, and reflected beliefs about underlying causes. Implications for program development and future research are discussed.

Establishing values-based leadership and value systems in healthcare organizations.

PubMed

Graber, David R; Kilpatrick, Anne Osborne

2008-01-01

The importance of values in organizations is often discussed in management literature. Possessing strong or inspiring values is increasingly considered to be a key quality of successful leaders. Another common theme is that organizational values contribute to the culture and ultimate success of organizations. These conceptions or expectations are clearly applicable to healthcare organizations in the United States. However, healthcare organizations have unique structures and are subject to societal expectations that must be accommodated within an organizational values system. This article describes theoretical literature on organizational values. Cultural and religious influences on Americans and how they may influence expectations from healthcare providers are discussed. Organizational cultures and the training and socialization of the numerous professional groups in healthcare also add to the considerable heterogeneity of value systems within healthcare organizations. These contribute to another challenge confronting healthcare managers--competing or conflicting values within a unit or the entire organization. Organizations often fail to reward members who uphold or enact the organization's values, which can lead to lack of motivation and commitment to the organization. Four key elements of values-based leadership are presented for healthcare managers who seek to develop as values-based leaders. 1) Recognize your personal and professional values, 2) Determine what you expect from the larger organization and what you can implement within your sphere of influence, 3) Understand and incorporate the values of internal stakeholders, and 4) Commit to values-based leadership.

Cultural Mistrust, Academic Outcome Expectations, and Outcome Values among African American Adolescent Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Irving, Miles Anthony; Hudley, Cynthia

2005-01-01

This study measured the relationship between outcome expectations, outcome value, and cultural mistrust among African American male high school students (N = 75) attending an urban, Southern California school. We hypothesized that a negative perception of the dominant culture would negatively affect academic outcome expectations and academic…

Simulated projection of ISMR over Indian Himalayan region: assessment from CSIRO-CORDEX South Asia experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Sandipan; Hazra, Anupam; Kumar, Kireet; Nandi, Shyamal K.; Dhyani, Pitamber P.

2017-09-01

In view of a significant lacuna in the Himalaya-specific knowledge of forthcoming expected changes in the rainfall climatology, this study attempts to assess the expected changes in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) pattern exclusively over the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) during 2020-2070 in comparison to a baseline period of 1970-2005 under two different warming scenarios, i.e., representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Five climate model products from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization initiated Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment of World Climate Research Programme over south Asia region are used for this purpose. Among the several different features of ISMR, this study attempts to investigate expected changes in the average summer monsoon rainfall and percent monthly rainfall to the total monsoon seasonal rainfall using multimodel averages. Furthermore, this study attempts to identify the topographical ranges which are expected to be mostly affected by the changing average monsoon seasonal rainfall over IHR. Results from the multimodel average analysis indicate that the rainfall climatology is expected to increase by >0.75 mm/day over the foothills of northwest Himalaya during 2020-2070, whereas the rainfall climatology is expected to decrease for the flood plains of Brahmaputra under a warmer climate. The monthly percent rainfall of June is expected to rise by more than 1% over the northwestern Himalaya during 2020-2040 (although insignificant at p value <0.05), whereas the same for August and September is expected to decrease over the eastern Himalaya under a warmer climate. In terms of rainfall changes along the altitudinal gradient, this study indicates that the two significant rainfall regions, one at around 900 m and the other around 2000 m of the northwestern Himalaya are expected to see positive changes (>1%) in rainfall climatology during 2020-2070, whereas regions more than 1500 m in eastern Himalaya are expected to experience inconsistent variation in rainfall climatology under a warmer climate scenario.

Expected net present value of pure and mixed sexed semen artificial insemination strategies in dairy heifers.

PubMed

Olynk, N J; Wolf, C A

2007-05-01

Sexed semen has been a long-anticipated tool for dairy farmers to obtain more heifer calves, but challenges exist for integrating sexed semen into commercial dairy farm reproduction programs. The decreased conception rates (CR) experienced with sexed semen make virgin heifers better suited for insemination with sexed semen than lactating dairy cows. This research sought to identify when various sexed semen breeding strategies provided higher expected net present value (NPV) than conventional artificial insemination (AI) breeding schemes, indicating which breeding scheme is advisable under various scenarios. Budgets were developed to calculate the expected NPV of various AI breeding strategies incorporating conventional (non-sexed) and sexed semen. In the base budgets, heifer and bull calf values were held constant at $500 and $110, respectively. The percentage of heifers expected to be born after breeding with conventional and sexed semen used was 49.2 and 90%, respectively. Breeding costs per AI were held constant at $15.00 per AI for conventional semen and $45.00 per AI for sexed semen of approximately the same genetic value. Conventional semen CR of 58 and 65% were used, and an AI submission rate was set at 100%. Breeding strategies with sexed semen were assessed for breakeven heifer calf values and sexed semen costs to obtain a NPV equal to that achieved with conventional semen. Breakeven heifer calf values for pure sexed semen strategies with a constant 58 and 65% base CR in which sexed semen achieved 53% of the base CR are $732.11 and $664.26, respectively. Breakeven sexed semen costs per AI of $17.16 and $22.39, compared with $45.00 per AI, were obtained to obtain a NPV equal to that obtained with pure conventional semen for base CR of 58 and 65%, respectively. The strategy employing purely sexed semen, with base CR of both 58 and 65%, yielded a lower NPV than purely conventional semen in all but the best-case scenario in which sexed semen provides 90% of the CR of conventional semen. Other potential advantages of sexed semen that were not quantified in the scenarios include biosecurity-related concerns, decreased dystocia due to increased numbers of heifer calves, and implications for internal herd growth.

Malignant pleural mesothelioma in US automotive mechanics: reported vs expected number of cases from 1975 to 2007.

PubMed

Finley, Brent L; Pierce, Jennifer S; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Scott, Laura L F; Lievense, Laura; Scott, Paul K; Galbraith, David A

2012-10-01

Until the 1980s, chrysotile asbestos was a component of automotive brakes manufactured in the US. The current OSHA Bulletin (2006) for brake repair cites a single study (Lemen, 2004) which concluded that the number of mesothelioma cases reported in the literature in "end-product users of friction materials" indicated an asbestos-related risk for auto mechanics. However, Lemen (2004) did not compare the reported number of cases to an "expected" value, even though pleural mesothelioma occurs in the general population in the absence of asbestos exposure. We compare the number of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) cases reported in the US literature among auto mechanics between 1975-2007 to an expected value derived from estimated numbers of current and former auto mechanics. A total of 106 cases categorized as mesothelioma or malignant neoplasm of the pleura were found in the literature. Using background incidence rates for MPM of two and three cases per million individuals per year, we estimated that a range of 278-515 cases of non-asbestos-related MPM, respectively, would have occurred in current or former auto mechanics from 1975-2007. Our findings are consistent with the numerous epidemiology studies that have found no increased risk of MPM in auto mechanics. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Significance of structural changes in proteins: expected errors in refined protein structures.

PubMed Central

Stroud, R. M.; Fauman, E. B.

1995-01-01

A quantitative expression key to evaluating significant structural differences or induced shifts between any two protein structures is derived. Because crystallography leads to reports of a single (or sometimes dual) position for each atom, the significance of any structural change based on comparison of two structures depends critically on knowing the expected precision of each median atomic position reported, and on extracting it for each atom, from the information provided in the Protein Data Bank and in the publication. The differences between structures of protein molecules that should be identical, and that are normally distributed, indicating that they are not affected by crystal contacts, were analyzed with respect to many potential indicators of structure precision, so as to extract, essentially by "machine learning" principles, a generally applicable expression involving the highest correlates. Eighteen refined crystal structures from the Protein Data Bank, in which there are multiple molecules in the crystallographic asymmetric unit, were selected and compared. The thermal B factor, the connectivity of the atom, and the ratio of the number of reflections to the number of atoms used in refinement correlate best with the magnitude of the positional differences between regions of the structures that otherwise would be expected to be the same. These results are embodied in a six-parameter equation that can be applied to any crystallographically refined structure to estimate the expected uncertainty in position of each atom. Structure change in a macromolecule can thus be referenced to the expected uncertainty in atomic position as reflected in the variance between otherwise identical structures with the observed values of correlated parameters. PMID:8563637

Public awareness of aesthetic and other forest values associated with sustainable forest management: a cross-cultural comparison among the public in four countries.

PubMed

Lim, Sang Seop; Innes, John L; Meitner, Michael

2015-03-01

Korea, China, Japan and Canada are all members of the Montreal Process (MP). However, there has been little comparative research on the public awareness of forest values within the framework of Sustainable Forest Management, not only between Asia and Canada, but also among these three Asian countries. This is true of aesthetic values, especially as the MP framework has no indicator for aesthetic values. We conducted surveys to identify similarities and differences in the perceptions of various forest values, including aesthetic values, between residents of the four countries: university student groups in Korea, China, Japan and Canada, as well as a more detailed assessment of the attitudes of Koreans by including two additional groups, Korean office workers, and Koreans living in Canada. A multivariate analysis of variance test across the four university student groups revealed significant differences in the rating of six forest functions out of 31. However the same test across the three Korean groups indicated no significant differences indicating higher confidence in the generalizability of our university student comparisons. For the forest aesthetic values, an analysis of variance test showed no significant differences across all groups. The forest aesthetic value was rated 6.95 to 7.98 (out of 10.0) depending on the group and rated relatively highly among ten social values across all the groups. Thurstone scale rankings and relative distances of six major forest values indicated that climate change control was ranked as the highest priority and scenic beauty was ranked the lowest by all the groups. Comparison tests of the frequencies of preferred major forest values revealed no significant differences across the groups with the exception of the Japanese group. These results suggest that public awareness of aesthetic and other forest values are not clearly correlated with the cultural backgrounds of the individuals, and the Korean university students' awareness could potentially be representative of the Koreans general public's opinion. We expect this research to contribute to the development of aesthetic and social indicators, and to the enhancement of balancing social with environmental and economic values within the SFM framework. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the actor effect in moral emotion expectancies across cultures: a comparison of Chinese and Canadian adolescents.

PubMed

Krettenauer, Tobias; Jia, Fanli

2013-09-01

The study investigated adolescents' moral emotion expectancies for actions versus inactions across cultures (Chinese vs. Canadian) and different moral rule contexts (rules that prohibit antisocial behaviour vs. rules that prescribe prosocial actions) while controlling for judgements of obligatoriness of moral actions. The sample consisted of 372 teenagers from three grade levels (7-8, 10-11, and 1st-2nd year university). Participants were provided with scenarios depicting moral and immoral actions of self or others. Moral emotion expectancies were assessed following each scenario by asking participants to rate the intensity of various emotions they anticipate for themselves in the given situation. Actions were related to stronger self-evaluative and other-evaluative moral emotion expectancies than inactions in both cultures. Whereas perceived obligatoriness of moral actions was associated with moral emotion expectancies, it did not account for the actor effect. Moreover, Chinese adolescents tended to report stronger negatively charged other-evaluative emotions when observing others engaging in antisocial behaviour and less positive emotions for moral actions. Overall, the study indicates that moral emotion expectancies hinge upon universal moral principles (as exemplified by the actor effect) that interact with cultural values and individuals' moral judgement in complex ways. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Unsteady density and velocity measurements in the 6 foot x 6 foot wind tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rose, W. C.; Johnson, D. A.

1980-01-01

The methods used and the results obtained in four aero-optic tests are summarized. It is concluded that the rather large values of density fluctuation appear to be the result of much higher Mach number than freestream and the violent turbulence in the flow as it separates from the turret. A representative comparison of fairing on-fairing off rms density fluctuation indicates essentially no effect at M = 0.62 and a small effect at M = 0.95. These data indicate that some slight improvement in optical quality can be expected with the addition of a fairing, although at M = 0.62 its effect would be nil. Fairings are very useful in controlling pressure loads on turrets, but will not have first order effects on optical quality. Scale sizes increase dramatically with increasing azimuth angle for a reprensentative condition. Since both scale sizes and fluctuation levels increase (total turbulence path length also increases) with azimuth angle, substantial optical degradation might be expected. For shorter wave lengths, large degradations occur.

Sensitivity of Locus Ceruleus Neurons to Reward Value for Goal-Directed Actions

PubMed Central

Richmond, Barry J.

2015-01-01

The noradrenergic nucleus locus ceruleus (LC) is associated classically with arousal and attention. Recent data suggest that it might also play a role in motivation. To study how LC neuronal responses are related to motivational intensity, we recorded 121 single neurons from two monkeys while reward size (one, two, or four drops) and the manner of obtaining reward (passive vs active) were both manipulated. The monkeys received reward under three conditions: (1) releasing a bar when a visual target changed color; (2) passively holding a bar; or (3) touching and releasing a bar. In the first two conditions, a visual cue indicated the size of the upcoming reward, and, in the third, the reward was constant through each block of 25 trials. Performance levels and lipping intensity (an appetitive behavior) both showed that the monkeys' motivation in the task was related to the predicted reward size. In conditions 1 and 2, LC neurons were activated phasically in relation to cue onset, and this activation strengthened with increasing expected reward size. In conditions 1 and 3, LC neurons were activated before the bar-release action, and the activation weakened with increasing expected reward size but only in task 1. These effects evolved as monkeys progressed through behavioral sessions, because increasing fatigue and satiety presumably progressively decreased the value of the upcoming reward. These data indicate that LC neurons integrate motivationally relevant information: both external cues and internal drives. The LC might provide the impetus to act when the predicted outcome value is low. PMID:25740528

A Transient Dopamine Signal Represents Avoidance Value and Causally Influences the Demand to Avoid

PubMed Central

Pultorak, Katherine J.; Schelp, Scott A.; Isaacs, Dominic P.; Krzystyniak, Gregory

2018-01-01

Abstract While an extensive literature supports the notion that mesocorticolimbic dopamine plays a role in negative reinforcement, recent evidence suggests that dopamine exclusively encodes the value of positive reinforcement. In the present study, we employed a behavioral economics approach to investigate whether dopamine plays a role in the valuation of negative reinforcement. Using rats as subjects, we first applied fast-scan cyclic voltammetry (FSCV) to determine that dopamine concentration decreases with the number of lever presses required to avoid electrical footshock (i.e., the economic price of avoidance). Analysis of the rate of decay of avoidance demand curves, which depict an inverse relationship between avoidance and increasing price, allows for inference of the worth an animal places on avoidance outcomes. Rapidly decaying demand curves indicate increased price sensitivity, or low worth placed on avoidance outcomes, while slow rates of decay indicate reduced price sensitivity, or greater worth placed on avoidance outcomes. We therefore used optogenetics to assess how inducing dopamine release causally modifies the demand to avoid electrical footshock in an economic setting. Increasing release at an avoidance predictive cue made animals more sensitive to price, consistent with a negative reward prediction error (i.e., the animal perceives they received a worse outcome than expected). Increasing release at avoidance made animals less sensitive to price, consistent with a positive reward prediction error (i.e., the animal perceives they received a better outcome than expected). These data demonstrate that transient dopamine release events represent the value of avoidance outcomes and can predictably modify the demand to avoid. PMID:29766047

Active inference and epistemic value.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2015-01-01

We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms.

An expectancy-value model of emotion regulation: implications for motivation, emotional experience, and decision making.

PubMed

Tamir, Maya; Bigman, Yochanan E; Rhodes, Emily; Salerno, James; Schreier, Jenna

2015-02-01

According to expectancy-value models of self-regulation, people are motivated to act in ways they expect to be useful to them. For instance, people are motivated to run when they believe running is useful, even when they have nothing to run away from. Similarly, we propose an expectancy-value model of emotion regulation, according to which people are motivated to emote in ways they expect to be useful to them, regardless of immediate contextual demands. For instance, people may be motivated to get angry when they believe anger is useful, even when there is nothing to be angry about. In 5 studies, we demonstrate that leading people to expect an emotion to be useful increased their motivation to experience that emotion (Studies 1-5), led them to up-regulate the experience of that emotion (Studies 3-4), and led to emotion-consistent behavior (Study 4). Our hypotheses were supported when we manipulated the expected value of anxiety (Study 1) and anger (Studies 2-5), both consciously (Studies 1-4) and unconsciously (Study 5). We discuss the theoretical and pragmatic implications of the proposed model. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Value of electroneurography as a prognostic indicator for recovery in acute severe inflammatory facial paralysis: a prospective study of Bell's palsy and Ramsay Hunt syndrome.

PubMed

Byun, Hayoung; Cho, Yang-Sun; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Chung, Kyu Whan; Hwang, Soojin; Chung, Won-Ho; Hong, Sung Hwa

2013-10-01

To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of electroneuronography (ENoG) in acute severe inflammatory facial paralysis, including Bell's palsy and Ramsay Hunt syndrome (RHS). Prospective observational study. Patients with acute severe facial paralysis of House-Brackmann (H-B) grade IV or worse and diagnosed with Bell's palsy or RHS were enrolled from August 2007 to July 2011. After treatment with oral corticosteroid, antiviral agent, and protective eye care, patients were followed up until recovery or 12 months from onset. Sixty-six patients with Bell's palsy and 22 with RHS were included. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed significant effect of ENoG value on recovery in both Bell's palsy and RHS. Values of ENoG were significantly worse in RHS than Bell's palsy. Chance of early recovery within 6 weeks after correction of ENoG effect was still significantly worse in RHS. Logistic regression analysis showed 90% chance of recovery within 6 months, expected with ENoG values of 69.2% degeneration (Bell's palsy) and 59.3% (RHS). The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves showed ENoG values of 82.5% (Bell's palsy) and 78.0% (RHS) as a critical cutoff value of nonrecovery until 1 year, with the best sensitivity and specificity. A higher chance of recovery was expected with better ENoG in Bell's palsy and RHS. Based on our data, nonrecovery is predicted in patients with ENoG value greater than 82.5% in Bell's palsy, and 78% in RHS. 4. Copyright © 2013 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Motivational Constructs Influencing Undergraduate Students' Choices to become Classroom Music Teachers or Music Performers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parkes, Kelly A.; Jones, Brett D.

2012-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to examine whether any of the six motivational constructs in the expectancy-value model of motivation (i.e., expectancy, ability perceptions, intrinsic interest value, attainment value, social utility value, and cost) would predict whether students intended to have a career teaching classroom music or…

Trace anomaly and invariance under transformation of units

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namavarian, Nadereh

2017-05-01

Paying attention to conformal invariance as the invariance under local transformations of units of measure, we take a conformal-invariant quantum field as a quantum matter theory in which one has the freedom to choose the values of units of mass, length, and time arbitrarily at each point. To be able to have this view, it is necessary that the background on which the quantum field is based be conformal invariant as well. Consequently, defining the unambiguous expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor of such a quantum field through the Wald renormalizing prescription necessitates breaking down the conformal symmetry of the background. Then, noticing the field equations suitable for describing the backreaction effect, we show that the existence of the "trace anomaly," known for indicating the brokenness of conformal symmetry in quantum field theory, can also indicate the above "gravitational" conformal symmetry brokenness.

Healthcare in Canada's North: Are We Getting Value for Money?

PubMed

Young, T Kue; Chatwood, Susan; Marchildon, Gregory P

2016-08-01

To determine if Canadians are getting value for money in providing health services to our northern residents. Secondary analyses of data from Statistics Canada, the Canadian Institute of Health Information and territorial government agencies on health status, health expenditures and health system performance indicators. Per capita health expenditures in Canada's northern territories are double that of Canada as a whole and are among the highest in the world. The North lags behind the rest of the country in preventable mortality, hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions and other performance indicators. The higher health expenditure in the North is to be expected from its unique geography and demography. If the North is not performing as well as Canada, it is not due to lack of money, and policy makers should be concerned about whether healthcare can be as good as it could be. Copyright © 2016 Longwoods Publishing.

Expected value information improves financial risk taking across the adult life span.

PubMed

Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Wagner, Anthony D; Knutson, Brian

2011-04-01

When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.

Adults' Learning Motivation: Expectancy of Success, Value, and the Role of Affective Memories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorges, Julia; Kandler, Christian

2012-01-01

The present study tested the applicability of expectancy-value theory to adults' learning motivation. Motivation was measured as the anticipated reaction (AR) of German students (N = 300) to receiving their instructions in English as a new learning opportunity. We used structural equation modeling to test our hypotheses. Expectancies of success…

Quantum corrections in thermal states of fermions on anti-de Sitter space-time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambruş, Victor E.; Winstanley, Elizabeth

2017-12-01

We study the energy density and pressure of a relativistic thermal gas of massless fermions on four-dimensional Minkowski and anti-de Sitter space-times using relativistic kinetic theory. The corresponding quantum field theory quantities are given by components of the renormalized expectation value of the stress-energy tensor operator acting on a thermal state. On Minkowski space-time, the renormalized vacuum expectation value of the stress-energy tensor is by definition zero, while on anti-de Sitter space-time the vacuum contribution to this expectation value is in general nonzero. We compare the properties of the vacuum and thermal expectation values of the energy density and pressure for massless fermions and discuss the circumstances in which the thermal contribution dominates over the vacuum one.

Motivational Deficits in Schizophrenia and the Representation of Expected Value

PubMed Central

Waltz, James A.; Gold, James M.

2016-01-01

Motivational deficits (avolition and anhedonia) have historically been considered important negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Numerous studies have attempted to identify the neural substrates of avolition and anhedonia in schizophrenia, but these studies have not produced much agreement. Deficits in various aspects of reinforcement processing have been observed in individuals with schizophrenia, but it is not exactly clear which of these deficits actually engender motivational impairments in SZ. The purpose of this chapter is to examine how various reinforcement-related behavioral and neural signals could contribute to motivational impairments in both schizophrenia, and psychiatric illness, in general. In particular, we describe different aspects of the concept of expected value (EV), such as the distinction between the EV of stimuli and the expected value of actions, the acquisition of value vs. the estimation of value, and the discounting of value as a consequence of time or effort required. We conclude that avolition and anhedonia in SZ are most commonly tied to aberrant signals for expected value, in the context of learning. We discuss implications for further research on the neural substrates of motivational impairments in psychiatric illness. PMID:26370946

Motivational deficit in childhood depression and hyperactivity.

PubMed

Layne, C; Berry, E

1983-07-01

A recent theory states that the immediate cause of adult depression is low motivation, where motivation is the multiplicative product of a person's expectation for a reward times his value for that reward. The present experiment supported the extension of this theory to childhood depression. The expectations, values, and motivations of three groups of children (Ns = 18; mean ages = 10) were measured: A depressed group and a hyperactive control group were selected from a population of clinically disturbed children, while normal controls were selected from regular classrooms. As predicted, the depressed children exhibited reduced motivation, primarily because their expectations were pessimistic. Unexpected findings were that the depressives' expectations were not abnormally irrational; and that hyperactives exhibited optimistic expectations, inflated values, and, hence, inflated motivation--especially for tangible rewards. Cognitive therapy techniques that focus upon expectations were recommended for the treatment of both depressed and hyperactive children.

Intergenerational Patterns of Values and Autonomy Expectations in Cultures of Relatedness and Separatedness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Sunita Mahtani; Bond, Michael Harris; Deeds, Osvelia; Chung, Siu Fung

1999-01-01

Investigated value priorities and autonomy expectations in 59 pairs of Caucasian and 66 pairs of Asian teenagers and their mothers in Hong Kong. Findings support models that predict persistent family interdependence despite adoption of many individualist values in modernizing collectivist cultures. (SLD)

42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

42 CFR 403.253 - Calculation of benefits.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... calculated on a net level reserve basis, using appropriate values to account for lapse, mortality, morbidity, and interest, that on the valuation date represents— (A) The present value of expected incurred benefits over the loss ratio calculation period; less— (B) The present value of expected net premiums over...

Changes in Bird Functional Diversity across Multiple Land Uses: Interpretations of Functional Redundancy Depend on Functional Group Identity

PubMed Central

Luck, Gary W.; Carter, Andrew; Smallbone, Lisa

2013-01-01

Examinations of the impact of land-use change on functional diversity link changes in ecological community structure driven by land modification with the consequences for ecosystem function. Yet, most studies have been small-scale, experimental analyses and primarily focussed on plants. There is a lack of research on fauna communities and at large-scales across multiple land uses. We assessed changes in the functional diversity of bird communities across 24 land uses aligned along an intensification gradient. We tested the hypothesis that functional diversity is higher in less intensively used landscapes, documented changes in diversity using four diversity metrics, and examined how functional diversity varied with species richness to identify levels of functional redundancy. Functional diversity, measured using a dendogram-based metric, increased from high to low intensity land uses, but observed values did not differ significantly from randomly-generated expected values. Values for functional evenness and functional divergence did not vary consistently with land-use intensification, although higher than expected values were mostly recorded in high intensity land uses. A total of 16 land uses had lower than expected values for functional dispersion and these were mostly low intensity native vegetation sites. Relations between functional diversity and bird species richness yielded strikingly different patterns for the entire bird community vs. particular functional groups. For all birds and insectivores, functional evenness, divergence and dispersion showed a linear decline with increasing species richness suggesting substantial functional redundancy across communities. However, for nectarivores, frugivores and carnivores, there was a significant hump-shaped or non-significant positive linear relationship between these functional measures and species richness indicating less redundancy. Hump-shaped relationships signify that the most functionally diverse communities occur at intermediate levels of species richness. Interpretations of redundancy thus vary for different functional groups and related ecosystem functions (e.g. pollination), and can be substantially different to relationships involving entire ecological communities. PMID:23696844

Expectancy of Success, Subjective Task-Value, and Message Frame in the Appraisal of Value-Promoting Messages Made Prior to a High-Stakes Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Putwain, David W.; Symes, Wendy

2016-01-01

Previous research has examined how subjective task-value and expectancy of success influence the appraisal of value-promoting messages used by teachers prior to high-stakes examinations. The aim of this study was to examine whether message-frame (gain or loss-framed messages) also influences the appraisal of value-promoting messages. Two hundred…

Dysfunctional representation of expected value is associated with reinforcement-based decision-making deficits in adolescents with conduct problems.

PubMed

White, Stuart F; Tyler, Patrick M; Erway, Anna K; Botkin, Mary L; Kolli, Venkata; Meffert, Harma; Pope, Kayla; Blair, James R

2016-08-01

Previous work has shown that patients with conduct problems (CP) show impairments in reinforcement-based decision-making. However, studies with patients have not previously demonstrated any relationships between impairment in any of the neurocomputations underpinning reinforcement-based decision-making and specific symptom sets [e.g. level of CP and/or callous-unemotional (CU) traits]. Seventy-two youths [20 female, mean age = 13.81 (SD = 2.14), mean IQ = 102.34 (SD = 10.99)] from a residential treatment program and the community completed a passive avoidance task while undergoing functional MRI. Greater levels of CP were associated with poorer task performance. Reduced representation of expected values (EV) when making avoidance responses within bilateral anterior insula cortex/inferior frontal gyrus (AIC/iFG) and striatum was associated with greater levels of CP but not CU traits. The current data indicate that difficulties in the use of value information to motivate decisions to avoid suboptimal choices are associated with increased levels of CP (though not severity of CU traits). Moreover, they account for the behavioral deficits observed during reinforcement-based decision-making in youth with CP. In short, an individual's relative failure to utilize value information within AIC/iFG to avoid bad choices is associated with elevated levels of CP. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Impact of Calcium and Magnesium in Groundwater and Drinking Water on the Health of Inhabitants of the Slovak Republic.

PubMed

Rapant, Stanislav; Cvečková, Veronika; Fajčíková, Katarína; Sedláková, Darina; Stehlíková, Beáta

2017-03-08

This work aims to evaluate the impact of the chemical composition of groundwater/drinking water on the health of inhabitants of the Slovak Republic. Primary data consists of 20,339 chemical analyses of groundwater (34 chemical elements and compounds) and data on the health of the Slovak population expressed in the form of health indicators (HI). Fourteen HIs were evaluated including life expectancy, potential years of lost life, relative/standardized mortality for cardiovascular and oncological diseases, and diseases of the gastrointestinal and respiratory systems. The chemical and health data were expressed as the mean values for each of the 2883 Slovak municipalities. Artificial neural network (ANN) was the method used for environmental and health data analysis. The most significant relationship between HI and chemical composition of groundwater was documented as Ca + Mg (mmol·L -1 ), Ca and Mg. The following limit values were set for these most significant groundwater chemical parameters: Ca + Mg 2.9-6.1 mmol·L -1 , Ca 78-155 mg·L -1 and Mg 28-54 mg·L -1 . At these concentration ranges, the health of the Slovak population is the most favorable and the life expectancy is the highest. These limit values are about twice as high in comparison to the current Slovak valid guideline values for drinking water.

Impact of Calcium and Magnesium in Groundwater and Drinking Water on the Health of Inhabitants of the Slovak Republic

PubMed Central

Rapant, Stanislav; Cvečková, Veronika; Fajčíková, Katarína; Sedláková, Darina; Stehlíková, Beáta

2017-01-01

This work aims to evaluate the impact of the chemical composition of groundwater/drinking water on the health of inhabitants of the Slovak Republic. Primary data consists of 20,339 chemical analyses of groundwater (34 chemical elements and compounds) and data on the health of the Slovak population expressed in the form of health indicators (HI). Fourteen HIs were evaluated including life expectancy, potential years of lost life, relative/standardized mortality for cardiovascular and oncological diseases, and diseases of the gastrointestinal and respiratory systems. The chemical and health data were expressed as the mean values for each of the 2883 Slovak municipalities. Artificial neural network (ANN) was the method used for environmental and health data analysis. The most significant relationship between HI and chemical composition of groundwater was documented as Ca + Mg (mmol·L−1), Ca and Mg. The following limit values were set for these most significant groundwater chemical parameters: Ca + Mg 2.9–6.1 mmol·L−1, Ca 78–155 mg·L−1 and Mg 28–54 mg·L−1. At these concentration ranges, the health of the Slovak population is the most favorable and the life expectancy is the highest. These limit values are about twice as high in comparison to the current Slovak valid guideline values for drinking water. PMID:28282877

Quantifying the burden of disease due to premature mortality in Hong Kong using standard expected years of life lost.

PubMed

Plass, Dietrich; Chau, Patsy Yuen Kwan; Thach, Thuan Quoc; Jahn, Heiko J; Lai, Poh Chin; Wong, Chit Ming; Kraemer, Alexander

2013-09-18

To complement available information on mortality in a population Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL), an indicator of premature mortality, is increasingly used to calculate the mortality-associated disease burden. SEYLL consider the age at death and therefore allow a more accurate view on mortality patterns as compared to routinely used measures (e.g. death counts). This study provides a comprehensive assessment of disease and injury SEYLL for Hong Kong in 2010. To estimate the SEYLL, life-expectancy at birth was set according to the 2004 Global Burden of Disease study at 82.5 and 80 years for females and males, respectively. Cause of death data for 2010 were corrected for misclassification of cardiovascular and cancer causes. In addition to the baseline estimates, scenario analyses were performed using alternative assumptions on life-expectancy (Hong Kong standard life-expectancy), time-discounting and age-weighting. To estimate a trend of premature mortality a time-series analysis from 2001 to 2010 was conducted. In 2010 524,706.5 years were lost due to premature death in Hong Kong with 58.3% of the SEYLL attributable to male deaths. The three overall leading single causes of SEYLL were "trachea, bronchus and lung cancers", "ischaemic heart disease" and "lower respiratory infections" together accounting for about 29% of the overall SEYLL. Further, self-inflicted injuries (5.6%; ranked 5) and liver cancer (4.9%; ranked 7) were identified as important causes not adequately captured by classical mortality measures. Scenario analyses highlighted that by using a 3% time-discount rate and non-uniform age-weights the SEYLL dropped by 51.6%. Using Hong Kong's standard life-expectancy values resulted in an overall increase of SEYLL by 10.8% as compared to the baseline SEYLL. Time-series analysis indicates an overall increase of SEYLL by 6.4%. In particular, group I (communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional) conditions showed highest increases with SEYLL-rates per 100,000 in 2010 being 1.4 times higher than 2001. The study stresses the mortality impact of diseases and injuries that occur in earlier stages of life and thus presents the SEYLL measure as a more sensitive indicator compared to classical mortality indicators. SEYLL provide useful additional information and supplement available death statistics.

Quantifying the burden of disease due to premature mortality in Hong Kong using standard expected years of life lost

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background To complement available information on mortality in a population Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL), an indicator of premature mortality, is increasingly used to calculate the mortality-associated disease burden. SEYLL consider the age at death and therefore allow a more accurate view on mortality patterns as compared to routinely used measures (e.g. death counts). This study provides a comprehensive assessment of disease and injury SEYLL for Hong Kong in 2010. Methods To estimate the SEYLL, life-expectancy at birth was set according to the 2004 Global Burden of Disease study at 82.5 and 80 years for females and males, respectively. Cause of death data for 2010 were corrected for misclassification of cardiovascular and cancer causes. In addition to the baseline estimates, scenario analyses were performed using alternative assumptions on life-expectancy (Hong Kong standard life-expectancy), time-discounting and age-weighting. To estimate a trend of premature mortality a time-series analysis from 2001 to 2010 was conducted. Results In 2010 524,706.5 years were lost due to premature death in Hong Kong with 58.3% of the SEYLL attributable to male deaths. The three overall leading single causes of SEYLL were “trachea, bronchus and lung cancers”, “ischaemic heart disease” and “lower respiratory infections” together accounting for about 29% of the overall SEYLL. Further, self-inflicted injuries (5.6%; ranked 5) and liver cancer (4.9%; ranked 7) were identified as important causes not adequately captured by classical mortality measures. Scenario analyses highlighted that by using a 3% time-discount rate and non-uniform age-weights the SEYLL dropped by 51.6%. Using Hong Kong’s standard life-expectancy values resulted in an overall increase of SEYLL by 10.8% as compared to the baseline SEYLL. Time-series analysis indicates an overall increase of SEYLL by 6.4%. In particular, group I (communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional) conditions showed highest increases with SEYLL-rates per 100,000 in 2010 being 1.4 times higher than 2001. Conclusions The study stresses the mortality impact of diseases and injuries that occur in earlier stages of life and thus presents the SEYLL measure as a more sensitive indicator compared to classical mortality indicators. SEYLL provide useful additional information and supplement available death statistics. PMID:24044523

Skin colour of the Ainu of Hidaka, Hokkaido, Northern Japan.

PubMed

Harvey, R G; Lord, J M

1978-09-01

Quantitative data on skin colour variation are presented for Ainu of the Hidaka District, Hokkaido. Measurements of upper arm reflectance were taken using 8 filters of an EEL reflectance spectrophotometer. The results are compared with those published for the Japanese by Hulse (1976). Sexual dimorphism is well marked in both populations and among the Ainu appears to be due largely to clothing habits. There is no statistical evidence for an association between skin colour and age. Ainu reflectance values at 545 nm and antilog transforms at 685 nm lie between those reported for Eskinomos of Greenland and Brazilian whites. Although the Ainu have consistently higher reflectance values than a Japanese sample assigned to the northern part of Japan, the results give little indication of the relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors to the differences observed. However, comparison of mean reflectance for Hokkaido Ainu and 'Central' Japanese with values predicted on the basis of world trends indicates that the differences are no greater than would be expected for two populations separated by over 7 degrees latitude and differing from one another in respect of temperature and humidity. Correspondence between observed and predicted reflectance values is excellent at the longest wavelength but poor at 470 nm.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment alternatives for beef bulls with preputial prolapse.

PubMed

Kasari, T R; McGrann, J M; Hooper, R N

1997-10-01

To develop an economic model for comparing cost-effectiveness of medical and surgical treatment versus replacement of beef bulls with preputial prolapse. Economic analysis. Estimates determined from medical records of bulls treated for preputial prolapse at our hospital and from information about treatment of bulls published elsewhere. Annual depreciation cost for treatment (ADC(T)) and replacement (ADC(R)) were calculated. Total investment for an injured bull equaled the sum of salvage value, maintenance cost, and expected cost of the treatment option under consideration. Total investment for a replacement bull was purchase price. Net present value of cost was calculated for each year of bull use. Sensitivity analyses were constructed to determine the value that would warrant treatment of an injured bull. The decision to treat was indicated when ADC(T) was less than ADC(R). In our example, it was more cost-effective for owners to cull an injured bull. The ADC(R) was $97 less than ADC(T) for medical treatment ($365 vs $462) and $280 less than ADC(T) for surgical treatment ($365 vs $645). Likewise, net present value of cost values indicated that it was more cost-effective for owners to cull an injured bull. Sensitivity analysis indicated treatment decisions were justified on the basis of replacement value or planned number of breeding seasons remaining for the bull. The model described here can be used by practitioners to provide an objective basis to guide decision making of owners who seek advice on whether to treat or replace bulls with preputial prolapse.

Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper; Williams, Byron K.

2014-01-01

We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value of only 3.0%. This value represents the difference between the best that could be expected if the most appropriate model were known and the best that could be expected in the face of model uncertainty. The value of eliminating uncertainty about the survival process was substantially higher than that associated with the reproductive process, which is consistent with evidence that variation in survival is more important than variation in reproduction in relatively long-lived avian species. Comparing the expected objective value if the most appropriate model were known with that of the maxi–min robust strategy, we found the value of eliminating uncertainty to be an expected increase of 6.2% in objective value. This result underscores the conservatism of the maxi–min rule and suggests that risk-neutral managers would prefer the optimal strategy that maximizes expected value, which is also the strategy that is expected to minimize the maximum loss (i.e., a strategy based on equal model weights). The low value of information calculated for pink-footed geese suggests that a robust strategy (i.e., one in which no learning is anticipated) could be as nearly effective as an adaptive one (i.e., a strategy in which the relative credibility of models is assessed through time). Of course, an alternative explanation for the low value of information is that the set of population models we considered was too narrow to represent key uncertainties in population dynamics. Yet we know that questions about the presence of density dependence must be central to the development of a sustainable harvest strategy. And while there are potentially many environmental covariates that could help explain variation in survival or reproduction, our admission of models in which vital rates are drawn randomly from reasonable distributions represents a worst-case scenario for management. We suspect that much of the value of the various harvest strategies we calculated is derived from the fact that they are state dependent, such that appropriate harvest rates depend on population abundance and weather conditions, as well as our focus on an infinite time horizon for sustainability.

Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

PubMed

Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

2017-06-01

Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

Variation of the Solar He I 10830 A Line: 1977 - 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, J. W.

1981-01-01

Daily measurements of the equivalent width of the 10830 A He I line integrated over the visible disk show: (1) an increase from about 32 to about 74 mA in the monthly mean values from the minimum to the maximum of the current solar cycle; (2) the monthly mean values are more smoothly varying than most other indices of solar activity; (3) rotation modulates the daily values in a highly variable manner with amplitudes as large as plus or minus 20%; (4) the apparent synodic rotation period is 29 days rather than the expected 27 days associated with active regions; (5) despite great differences in the appearance of the sun in 3933 A Ca I and 10830 A He I, the central intensity of the former correlates with the equivalent width of the latter with a value r = 0.97.

Study of Laser Created Metal Vapor Plasmas.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-11-16

Leventhal(1 indicate a value closer to 10-1 cm. might be expected. In the case of’ laser induced penniinf, ionization., wec -,;4-,rit LIP 32 LIP L J where...modified Kramer’s formulae.(25) In figure 11 we demonstrate the impact of associative ionization and laser induced penning ionization upon the temporal...34Laser Induced Fluorescence and Environmental Sensing", Invited paper for Optical Society of America, Topical Mcetixg on "Applications of Laser

UHF (Ultra-High-Frequency) Propagation in Vegetative Media.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-04-01

Y V /ik) where k = 2A/X is the wave number and the asterisk indicates complex conjugate. In order to obtain useful results for average values that are...easy to make an accurate estimation of the expected effects under one set of conditions on the basis of experimental observa- tions carried out under... systems propagating horizontally through vegetation. The large quantity A-13 of measured data demonstrates the complex effects upon path loss of irregu

Assessing and improving quality of life in patients with head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Singer, Susanne; Langendijk, Johannes; Yarom, Noam

2013-01-01

Health-related quality of life (QoL) indicates the patients' perception of their health. It depends not only on disease- and treatment-related factors but also on complex inter-relationships of expectations, values and norms, psychologic distress, and comparison with other patients. This article introduces methods and challenges of QoL assessment in patients with head and neck cancer, as well as ways to overcome measurement problems and ways to improve their QoL.

A Bayesian bird's eye view of ‘Replications of important results in social psychology’

PubMed Central

Schönbrodt, Felix D.; Yao, Yuling; Gelman, Andrew; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2017-01-01

We applied three Bayesian methods to reanalyse the preregistered contributions to the Social Psychology special issue ‘Replications of Important Results in Social Psychology’ (Nosek & Lakens. 2014 Registered reports: a method to increase the credibility of published results. Soc. Psychol. 45, 137–141. (doi:10.1027/1864-9335/a000192)). First, individual-experiment Bayesian parameter estimation revealed that for directed effect size measures, only three out of 44 central 95% credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. For undirected effect size measures, only four out of 59 credible intervals contained values greater than 0.10 (10% of variance explained) and only 19 intervals contained values larger than 0.05. Second, a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis for all 38 t-tests showed that only one out of the 38 hierarchically estimated credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. Third, a Bayes factor hypothesis test was used to quantify the evidence for the null hypothesis against a default one-sided alternative. Only seven out of 60 Bayes factors indicated non-anecdotal support in favour of the alternative hypothesis (BF10>3), whereas 51 Bayes factors indicated at least some support for the null hypothesis. We hope that future analyses of replication success will embrace a more inclusive statistical approach by adopting a wider range of complementary techniques. PMID:28280547

Examining the Feasibility and Utility of Estimating Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (via a Nonparametric Approach) as Part of the Reimbursement Decision-Making Process in Ireland: Application to Drugs for Cancer.

PubMed

McCullagh, Laura; Schmitz, Susanne; Barry, Michael; Walsh, Cathal

2017-11-01

In Ireland, all new drugs for which reimbursement by the healthcare payer is sought undergo a health technology assessment by the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics. The National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics estimate expected value of perfect information but not partial expected value of perfect information (owing to computational expense associated with typical methodologies). The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility and utility of estimating partial expected value of perfect information via a computationally efficient, non-parametric regression approach. This was a retrospective analysis of evaluations on drugs for cancer that had been submitted to the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics (January 2010 to December 2014 inclusive). Drugs were excluded if cost effective at the submitted price. Drugs were excluded if concerns existed regarding the validity of the applicants' submission or if cost-effectiveness model functionality did not allow required modifications to be made. For each included drug (n = 14), value of information was estimated at the final reimbursement price, at a threshold equivalent to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at that price. The expected value of perfect information was estimated from probabilistic analysis. Partial expected value of perfect information was estimated via a non-parametric approach. Input parameters with a population value at least €1 million were identified as potential targets for research. All partial estimates were determined within minutes. Thirty parameters (across nine models) each had a value of at least €1 million. These were categorised. Collectively, survival analysis parameters were valued at €19.32 million, health state utility parameters at €15.81 million and parameters associated with the cost of treating adverse effects at €6.64 million. Those associated with drug acquisition costs and with the cost of care were valued at €6.51 million and €5.71 million, respectively. This research demonstrates that the estimation of partial expected value of perfect information via this computationally inexpensive approach could be considered feasible as part of the health technology assessment process for reimbursement purposes within the Irish healthcare system. It might be a useful tool in prioritising future research to decrease decision uncertainty.

Perspectives of Nurses Toward Telehealth Efficacy and Quality of Health Care: Pilot Study.

PubMed

Bashir, Ayisha; Bastola, Dhundy R

2018-05-25

Telehealth nursing, or the delivery, management, and coordination of nursing care services provided via telecommunications technology, is one of the methods of delivering health care to patients in the United States. It is important to assess the service quality of the involved health professionals as well as the telehealth nursing process. The focus of this study is the innovative model of telehealth care delivery by nurses for managing patients with chronic disease while they are living in their own residence. The primary objective of this pilot study was to examine whether telehealth technology impacts the perceived level of internal service quality delivered by nurses within a telehealth organization. To address this research goal, the notion of telehealth nursing service quality (TNSQ) is empirically tested and validated with a survey instrument. Data were collected from nurses belonging to a home care agency based on interview questions inquiring about facilitators and inhibitors to TNSQ. A survey to measure TNSQ based on the SERVQUAL instrument was completed by adjusting descriptions of the original instrument to suit the context. Follow-up interviews were conducted to validate questions on the revised instrument. The findings of this survey research were positive, based on mean differences between expectations and perceptions of TNSQ. This indicates satisfaction with TNSQ and shows that the quality of the service is higher than what the respondents expect. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test using the P value for the test, which is .35, did not show a statistically significant change between the median differences of perception and expectation. The total number of respondents was 13. Results indicate that overall perceived service quality is a positive value (0.05332). This means the perceptions of the level of service are slightly higher than what they expect, indicating there is satisfaction with TNSQ. The responses to the interview questions and data gathered from the survey showed overall satisfaction with TNSQ. The SERVQUAL instrument was a good framework to assess TNSQ. In a nutshell, the study highlighted how the telehealth process provides daily monitoring of patient health, leading to the benefits of immediate feedback for patients, family, and caregivers as well as convenience of scheduling. ©Ayisha Bashir, Dhundy R Bastola. Originally published in JMIR Medical Informatics (http://medinform.jmir.org), 25.05.2018.

Perspectives of Nurses Toward Telehealth Efficacy and Quality of Health Care: Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Bastola, Dhundy R

2018-01-01

Background Telehealth nursing, or the delivery, management, and coordination of nursing care services provided via telecommunications technology, is one of the methods of delivering health care to patients in the United States. It is important to assess the service quality of the involved health professionals as well as the telehealth nursing process. The focus of this study is the innovative model of telehealth care delivery by nurses for managing patients with chronic disease while they are living in their own residence. Objective The primary objective of this pilot study was to examine whether telehealth technology impacts the perceived level of internal service quality delivered by nurses within a telehealth organization. To address this research goal, the notion of telehealth nursing service quality (TNSQ) is empirically tested and validated with a survey instrument. Methods Data were collected from nurses belonging to a home care agency based on interview questions inquiring about facilitators and inhibitors to TNSQ. A survey to measure TNSQ based on the SERVQUAL instrument was completed by adjusting descriptions of the original instrument to suit the context. Follow-up interviews were conducted to validate questions on the revised instrument. Results The findings of this survey research were positive, based on mean differences between expectations and perceptions of TNSQ. This indicates satisfaction with TNSQ and shows that the quality of the service is higher than what the respondents expect. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test using the P value for the test, which is .35, did not show a statistically significant change between the median differences of perception and expectation. The total number of respondents was 13. Results indicate that overall perceived service quality is a positive value (0.05332). This means the perceptions of the level of service are slightly higher than what they expect, indicating there is satisfaction with TNSQ. Conclusions The responses to the interview questions and data gathered from the survey showed overall satisfaction with TNSQ. The SERVQUAL instrument was a good framework to assess TNSQ. In a nutshell, the study highlighted how the telehealth process provides daily monitoring of patient health, leading to the benefits of immediate feedback for patients, family, and caregivers as well as convenience of scheduling. PMID:29802089

Cost-effectiveness of precision medicine in the fourth-line treatment of metastatic lung adenocarcinoma: An early decision analytic model of multiplex targeted sequencing.

PubMed

Doble, Brett; John, Thomas; Thomas, David; Fellowes, Andrew; Fox, Stephen; Lorgelly, Paula

2017-05-01

To identify parameters that drive the cost-effectiveness of precision medicine by comparing the use of multiplex targeted sequencing (MTS) to select targeted therapy based on tumour genomic profiles to either no further testing with chemotherapy or no further testing with best supportive care in the fourth-line treatment of metastatic lung adenocarcinoma. A combined decision tree and Markov model to compare costs, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years over a ten-year time horizon from an Australian healthcare payer perspective. Data sources included the published literature and a population-based molecular cohort study (Cancer 2015). Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic sensitivity analyses and quantified by estimating expected value of perfect/partial perfect information. Uncertainty due to technological/scientific advancement was assessed through a number of plausible future scenario analyses. Point estimate incremental cost-effective ratios indicate that MTS is not cost-effective for selecting fourth-line treatment of metastatic lung adenocarcinoma. Lower mortality rates during testing and for true positive patients, lower health state utility values for progressive disease, and targeted therapy resulting in reductions in inpatient visits, however, all resulted in more favourable cost-effectiveness estimates for MTS. The expected value to decision makers of removing all current decision uncertainty was estimated to be between AUD 5,962,843 and AUD 13,196,451, indicating that additional research to reduce uncertainty may be a worthwhile investment. Plausible future scenarios analyses revealed limited improvements in cost-effectiveness under scenarios of improved test performance, decreased costs of testing/interpretation, and no biopsy costs/adverse events. Reductions in off-label targeted therapy costs, when considered together with the other scenarios did, however, indicate more favourable cost-effectiveness of MTS. As more clinical evidence is generated for MTS, the model developed should be revisited and cost-effectiveness re-estimated under different testing scenarios to further understand the value of precision medicine and its potential impact on the overall health budget. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sexual possibility situations and sexual behaviors among young adolescents: the moderating role of protective factors.

PubMed

DiLorio, Colleen; Dudley, William N; Soet, Johanna E; McCarty, Frances

2004-12-01

To examine sexual possibility situations (SPS) and protective practices associated with involvement in intimate sexual behaviors and the initiation of sexual intercourse among young adolescents and to determine if protective factors moderate the relationship between SPS and sexual behaviors. Data for these analyses were obtained from the baseline assessment for adolescents conducted as part of an HIV prevention study called "Keepin' it R.E.A.L.!" The study was conducted with a community-based organization (CBO) in an urban area serving a predominantly African-American population. In addition to items assessing SPS, intimate sexual behaviors, and initiation of sexual intercourse, adolescents provided information on the following protective factors: educational goals, self-concept, future time perspective, orientation to health, self-efficacy, outcome expectations, parenting, communication, values, and prosocial activities. Background personal information, including age and gender, was also collected. The analyses were conducted on data from 491 predominantly African-American adolescents, 61% of whom were boys. Variables were combined to form SPS and protective indices that were used in the first set of regression analyses. In a second set of analyses, the indices were unbundled and individual variables were entered into regression analyses. Both SPS and protective indices explained significant portions of variance in intimate sexual behaviors, and the SPS index explained a significant portion of variance in the initiation of sexual intercourse. The regression analysis using the unbundled SPS and protective factors revealed the following statistically significant predictors for intimate sexual behaviors: age, gender, time alone with groups of peers, time alone with a member of the opposite sex, behavior self-concept, popularity self-concept, self-efficacy for abstinence, outcome expectations for abstinence, parental control, personal values, and parental values. A similar regression analysis revealed that age, time alone with a member of the opposite sex, and personal values were significant predictors of initiation of sexual intercourse. These results provide evidence for the important role of protective factors in explaining early involvement in sexual behaviors and show that protective factors extend beyond personal characteristics to include both familial and peer factors.

Trust as commodity: social value orientation affects the neural substrates of learning to cooperate

PubMed Central

Declerck, Carolyn H.; Emonds, Griet; Boone, Christophe

2017-01-01

Abstract Individuals differ in their motives and strategies to cooperate in social dilemmas. These differences are reflected by an individual’s social value orientation: proselfs are strategic and motivated to maximize self-interest, while prosocials are more trusting and value fairness. We hypothesize that when deciding whether or not to cooperate with a random member of a defined group, proselfs, more than prosocials, adapt their decisions based on past experiences: they ‘learn’ instrumentally to form a base-line expectation of reciprocity. We conducted an fMRI experiment where participants (19 proselfs and 19 prosocials) played 120 sequential prisoner’s dilemmas against randomly selected, anonymous and returning partners who cooperated 60% of the time. Results indicate that cooperation levels increased over time, but that the rate of learning was steeper for proselfs than for prosocials. At the neural level, caudate and precuneus activation were more pronounced for proselfs relative to prosocials, indicating a stronger reliance on instrumental learning and self-referencing to update their trust in the cooperative strategy. PMID:28119509

Trust as commodity: social value orientation affects the neural substrates of learning to cooperate.

PubMed

Lambert, Bruno; Declerck, Carolyn H; Emonds, Griet; Boone, Christophe

2017-04-01

Individuals differ in their motives and strategies to cooperate in social dilemmas. These differences are reflected by an individual's social value orientation: proselfs are strategic and motivated to maximize self-interest, while prosocials are more trusting and value fairness. We hypothesize that when deciding whether or not to cooperate with a random member of a defined group, proselfs, more than prosocials, adapt their decisions based on past experiences: they 'learn' instrumentally to form a base-line expectation of reciprocity. We conducted an fMRI experiment where participants (19 proselfs and 19 prosocials) played 120 sequential prisoner's dilemmas against randomly selected, anonymous and returning partners who cooperated 60% of the time. Results indicate that cooperation levels increased over time, but that the rate of learning was steeper for proselfs than for prosocials. At the neural level, caudate and precuneus activation were more pronounced for proselfs relative to prosocials, indicating a stronger reliance on instrumental learning and self-referencing to update their trust in the cooperative strategy. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

2017-05-01

Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

Food production and service in UK hospitals.

PubMed

Ahmed, Mohamed; Jones, Eleri; Redmond, Elizabeth; Hewedi, Mahmoud; Wingert, Andreas; Gad El Rab, Mohamed

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to apply value stream mapping holistically to hospital food production/service systems focused on high-quality food. Multiple embedded case study of three (two private-sector and one public-sector) hospitals in the UK. The results indicated various issues affecting hospital food production including: the menu and nutritional considerations; food procurement; food production; foodservice; patient perceptions/expectations. Value stream mapping is a new approach for food production systems in UK hospitals whether private or public hospitals. The paper identifies opportunities for enhancing hospital food production systems. The paper provides a theoretical basis for process enhancement of hospital food production and the provision of high-quality hospital food.

Hough transform method for track finding in center drift chamber

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Azmi, K. A. Mohammad Kamal, E-mail: khasmidatul@siswa.um.edu.my; Wan Abdullah, W. A. T., E-mail: wat@um.edu.my; Ibrahim, Zainol Abidin

Hough transform is a global tracking method used which had been expected to be faster approach for tracking the circular pattern of electron moving in Center Drift Chamber (CDC), by transforming the point of hit into a circular curve. This paper present the implementation of hough transform method for the reconstruction of tracks in Center Drift Chamber (CDC) which have been generated by random number in C language programming. Result from implementation of this method shows higher peak of circle parameter value (xc,yc,rc) that indicate the similarity value of the parameter needed for circular track in CDC for charged particlesmore » in the region of CDC.« less

Optimal no-go theorem on hidden-variable predictions of effect expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blass, Andreas; Gurevich, Yuri

2018-03-01

No-go theorems prove that, under reasonable assumptions, classical hidden-variable theories cannot reproduce the predictions of quantum mechanics. Traditional no-go theorems proved that hidden-variable theories cannot predict correctly the values of observables. Recent expectation no-go theorems prove that hidden-variable theories cannot predict the expectations of observables. We prove the strongest expectation-focused no-go theorem to date. It is optimal in the sense that the natural weakenings of the assumptions and the natural strengthenings of the conclusion make the theorem fail. The literature on expectation no-go theorems strongly suggests that the expectation-focused approach is more general than the value-focused one. We establish that the expectation approach is not more general.

Extensive ionic partitioning in interfaces that membranous and biomimetic surfaces form with electrolytes: Antitheses of the gold-electrolyte interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chilcott, Terry; Guo, Chuan; Coster, Hans

2013-04-01

Maxwell-Wagner modeling of electrical impedance measurements of tetradecane-electrolyte systems yielded three interfacial layers between the tetradecane layer and the bulk electrolytes of concentration ranging from 1-300 mM KCl whereas the gold-electrolyte system yielded only one layer. The conductivity and thickness for the surface layer were orders of magnitude different from that expected for the Gouy-Chapman layer and did not reflect dependencies of the Debye length on concentration. Conductivity values for the three layers were less than those of the bulk electrolyte but exhibited a dependency on concentration similar to that expected for the bulk. Thickness values for the layers indicate an interface extending ~106 Å into the bulk electrolyte, which contrasts with the gold-electrolyte interface that extended only 20-30 Å into the bulk. Maxwell-Wagner characterizations of both interfaces were consistent with spatial distributions of ionic partitioning arising from the Born energy as determined by the dielectric properties of the substrates and electrolyte. The distributions for the membranous and silicon interfaces were similar but the antitheses of that for the gold interface.

A proposed method to minimize waste from institutional radiation safety surveillance programs through the application of expected value statistics.

PubMed

Emery, R J

1997-03-01

Institutional radiation safety programs routinely use wipe test sampling and liquid scintillation counting analysis to indicate the presence of removable radioactive contamination. Significant volumes of liquid waste can be generated by such surveillance activities, and the subsequent disposal of these materials can sometimes be difficult and costly. In settings where large numbers of negative results are regularly obtained, the limited grouping of samples for analysis based on expected value statistical techniques is possible. To demonstrate the plausibility of the approach, single wipe samples exposed to varying amounts of contamination were analyzed concurrently with nine non-contaminated samples. Although the sample grouping inevitably leads to increased quenching with liquid scintillation counting systems, the effect did not impact the ability to detect removable contamination in amounts well below recommended action levels. Opportunities to further improve this cost effective semi-quantitative screening procedure are described, including improvements in sample collection procedures, enhancing sample-counting media contact through mixing and extending elution periods, increasing sample counting times, and adjusting institutional action levels.

Is Listening in Noise Worth It? The Neurobiology of Speech Recognition in Challenging Listening Conditions.

PubMed

Eckert, Mark A; Teubner-Rhodes, Susan; Vaden, Kenneth I

2016-01-01

This review examines findings from functional neuroimaging studies of speech recognition in noise to provide a neural systems level explanation for the effort and fatigue that can be experienced during speech recognition in challenging listening conditions. Neuroimaging studies of speech recognition consistently demonstrate that challenging listening conditions engage neural systems that are used to monitor and optimize performance across a wide range of tasks. These systems appear to improve speech recognition in younger and older adults, but sustained engagement of these systems also appears to produce an experience of effort and fatigue that may affect the value of communication. When considered in the broader context of the neuroimaging and decision making literature, the speech recognition findings from functional imaging studies indicate that the expected value, or expected level of speech recognition given the difficulty of listening conditions, should be considered when measuring effort and fatigue. The authors propose that the behavioral economics or neuroeconomics of listening can provide a conceptual and experimental framework for understanding effort and fatigue that may have clinical significance.

Is Listening in Noise Worth It? The Neurobiology of Speech Recognition in Challenging Listening Conditions

PubMed Central

Eckert, Mark A.; Teubner-Rhodes, Susan; Vaden, Kenneth I.

2016-01-01

This review examines findings from functional neuroimaging studies of speech recognition in noise to provide a neural systems level explanation for the effort and fatigue that can be experienced during speech recognition in challenging listening conditions. Neuroimaging studies of speech recognition consistently demonstrate that challenging listening conditions engage neural systems that are used to monitor and optimize performance across a wide range of tasks. These systems appear to improve speech recognition in younger and older adults, but sustained engagement of these systems also appears to produce an experience of effort and fatigue that may affect the value of communication. When considered in the broader context of the neuroimaging and decision making literature, the speech recognition findings from functional imaging studies indicate that the expected value, or expected level of speech recognition given the difficulty of listening conditions, should be considered when measuring effort and fatigue. We propose that the behavioral economics and/or neuroeconomics of listening can provide a conceptual and experimental framework for understanding effort and fatigue that may have clinical significance. PMID:27355759

Expected net present value of sample information: from burden to investment.

PubMed

Hall, Peter S; Edlin, Richard; Kharroubi, Samer; Gregory, Walter; McCabe, Christopher

2012-01-01

The Expected Value of Information Framework has been proposed as a method for identifying when health care technologies should be immediately reimbursed and when any reimbursement should be withheld while awaiting more evidence. This framework assesses the value of obtaining additional evidence to inform a current reimbursement decision. This represents the burden of not having the additional evidence at the time of the decision. However, when deciding whether to reimburse now or await more evidence, decision makers need to know the value of investing in more research to inform a future decision. Assessing this value requires consideration of research costs, research time, and what happens to patients while the research is undertaken and after completion. The investigators describe a development of the calculation of the expected value of sample information that assesses the value of investing in further research, including an only-in-research strategy and an only-with-research strategy.

Reference-dependent risk sensitivity as rational inference.

PubMed

Denrell, Jerker C

2015-07-01

Existing explanations of reference-dependent risk sensitivity attribute it to cognitive imperfections and heuristic choice processes. This article shows that behavior consistent with an S-shaped value function could be an implication of rational inferences about the expected values of alternatives. Theoretically, I demonstrate that even a risk-neutral Bayesian decision maker, who is uncertain about the reliability of observations, should use variability in observed outcomes as a predictor of low expected value for outcomes above a reference level, and as a predictor of high expected value for outcomes below a reference level. Empirically, I show that combining past outcomes using an S-shaped value function leads to accurate predictions about future values. The theory also offers a rationale for why risk sensitivity consistent with an inverse S-shaped value function should occur in experiments on decisions from experience with binary payoff distributions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Think first job! Preferences and expectations of engineering students in a French `Grande Ecole'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerwel Proches, Cecile N.; Chelin, Nathalie; Rouvrais, Siegfried

2018-03-01

A career in engineering may be appealing owing to the prospect of a good salary and a dynamic work environment. There may, however, be challenges for students wishing to enter their first job. In engineering education, career preparation courses may be included so as to prepare students adequately for their first job, future careers, and to reinforce career decision-making skills. This study explored the first-job preferences and expectations of engineering students at a generalist French 'Grande Ecole' before their compulsory internship. The study ultimately provided insight into ways in which future engineers may best be equipped for their first jobs. A qualitative research study was employed, using four focus groups to collect data, which was analysed thematically. Key findings indicate the resolute importance that engineering students place on having a challenging job, teamwork, independence, opportunities for development, and a participative style of being managed. The research findings may be of value in order to renew an engineering curriculum with better alignment between students' expectations and industry needs.

The effect of adolescents' sports clubs participation on self-reported mental and physical conditions and future expectations.

PubMed

Gísladóttir, Thórdís Lilja; Matthíasdóttir, Asrún; Kristjánsdóttir, Hafrún

2013-01-01

Sports clubs create conditions for people of all ages to pursue a healthy lifestyle through exercise in sports and attend to constructive pedagogical work which creates much value for society. This study investigates the relationship between adolescents' sports clubs participation and self-reported mental and physical conditions and future expectations. The participants were 10,987 pupils in the final three years of their compulsory education in Iceland (aged 14-16 years). The participants completed questionnaires administered to students in the classroom relating to health and behaviour. The results indicate that participation in sports clubs influences adolescents positively; adolescents who work hard at sport not only believe they are in better mental and physical condition, they also believe they can succeed in other areas such as their studies. Sports clubs promote positive influence on adolescents' mental and physical conditions and their future expectations toward work and happiness. It can be concluded that participation in organised sports clubs affects the participants in a positive way.

Statistical lamb wave localization based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harley, Joel B.

2018-04-01

Guided wave localization methods based on delay-and-sum imaging, matched field processing, and other techniques have been designed and researched to create images that locate and describe structural damage. The maximum value of these images typically represent an estimated damage location. Yet, it is often unclear if this maximum value, or any other value in the image, is a statistically significant indicator of damage. Furthermore, there are currently few, if any, approaches to assess the statistical significance of guided wave localization images. As a result, we present statistical delay-and-sum and statistical matched field processing localization methods to create statistically significant images of damage. Our framework uses constant rate of false alarm statistics and extreme value theory to detect damage with little prior information. We demonstrate our methods with in situ guided wave data from an aluminum plate to detect two 0.75 cm diameter holes. Our results show an expected improvement in statistical significance as the number of sensors increase. With seventeen sensors, both methods successfully detect damage with statistical significance.

Parents' and Teachers' Perceptions of Abnormal Attention Span of Elementary School-Age Children.

PubMed

Segal-Triwitz, Yael; Kirchen, Louisa M; Shani Sherman, Tal; Levav, Miriam; Schonherz-Pine, Yael; Kushnir, Jonathan; Ariel, Raya; Gothelf, Doron

2016-01-01

To determine teacher and parental perception of minimal expected sustained attention span during various daily tasks among elementary school children. 54 parents and 47 teachers completed the attention span questionnaire (AtSQ) that was developed for this study. The AtSQ consists of 15 academic and leisure tasks that require a child's sustained attention. The study focused on third and fourth graders in Israel. There was a high degree of variability among teachers and parents in their responses to the AtSQ. The expected attention span of children as judged by parents was higher and more varied compared to teachers, and higher for girls than for boys. Our results indicate poor agreement in cutoff values for sustained attention span between teachers and parents and within each group.

Transferability of short tandem repeat markers for two wild Canid species inhabiting the Brazilian Cerrado.

PubMed

Rodrigues, F M; Telles, M P C; Resende, L V; Soares, T N; Diniz-Filho, J A F; Jácomo, A T A; Silveira, L

2006-12-13

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) and the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous) are two wild-canid species found in the Brazilian Cerrado. We tested cross-amplification and transferability of 29 short tandem repeat primers originally developed for cattle and domestic dogs and cats on 38 individuals of each of these two species, collected in the Emas National Park, which is the largest national park in the Cerrado region. Six of these primers were successfully transferred (CSSM-038, PEZ-05, PEZ-12, LOCO-13, LOCO-15, and PEZ-20); five of which were found to be polymorphic. Genetic parameter values (number of alleles per locus, observed and expected heterozygosities, and fixation indices) were within the expected range reported for canid populations worldwide.

Repeated significance tests of linear combinations of sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic biomarker

PubMed Central

Wu, Mixia; Shu, Yu; Li, Zhaohai; Liu, Aiyi

2016-01-01

A sequential design is proposed to test whether the accuracy of a binary diagnostic biomarker meets the minimal level of acceptance. The accuracy of a binary diagnostic biomarker is a linear combination of the marker’s sensitivity and specificity. The objective of the sequential method is to minimize the maximum expected sample size under the null hypothesis that the marker’s accuracy is below the minimal level of acceptance. The exact results of two-stage designs based on Youden’s index and efficiency indicate that the maximum expected sample sizes are smaller than the sample sizes of the fixed designs. Exact methods are also developed for estimation, confidence interval and p-value concerning the proposed accuracy index upon termination of the sequential testing. PMID:26947768

An analysis of structural relationship among achievement motive on social participation, purpose in life, and role expectations among community dwelling elderly attending day services

PubMed Central

Kyougoku, Makoto

2016-01-01

Background. Achievement motive is defined as the intention to achieve one’s goals. Achievement motive is assumed to promote clients to choices and actions toward their valuable goal, so it is an important consideration in rehabilitation. Purpose. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the structural relationship among achievement motive on purpose in life, social participation, and role expectation of community-dwelling elderly people. Methods. Participants were community-dwelling elderly people in day-service centers. A total of 281 participants (male: 127, female: 154) answered the self-administered questionnaire in cross-sectional research. The questionnaire was comprised of demographic data and scales that evaluated achievement motive, social participation, purpose in life, and role expectation. We studied the structural relationship established by our hypothesized model via a structural equation modeling approach. Results. We checked the standardized path coefficients and the modification indices; the modified model’s statistics were a good fit: CFI = 0.984, TLI = 0.983, RMSEA = 0.050, 90% CI [0.044–0.055]. Achievement motive had a significantly direct effect on purpose in life (direct effect = 0.445, p value < 0.001), a significantly indirect effect on purpose in life via social participation or role expectation (indirect effect = 0.170, p value < 0.001) and a total effect on purpose in life (total effect = 0.615). Discussion. This result suggests that enhancing the intention to achieve one’s goals enables participants to feel a spirit of challenge with a purpose and a sense of fulfillment in their daily lives. PMID:26835188

An analysis of structural relationship among achievement motive on social participation, purpose in life, and role expectations among community dwelling elderly attending day services.

PubMed

Sano, Nobuyuki; Kyougoku, Makoto

2016-01-01

Background. Achievement motive is defined as the intention to achieve one's goals. Achievement motive is assumed to promote clients to choices and actions toward their valuable goal, so it is an important consideration in rehabilitation. Purpose. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the structural relationship among achievement motive on purpose in life, social participation, and role expectation of community-dwelling elderly people. Methods. Participants were community-dwelling elderly people in day-service centers. A total of 281 participants (male: 127, female: 154) answered the self-administered questionnaire in cross-sectional research. The questionnaire was comprised of demographic data and scales that evaluated achievement motive, social participation, purpose in life, and role expectation. We studied the structural relationship established by our hypothesized model via a structural equation modeling approach. Results. We checked the standardized path coefficients and the modification indices; the modified model's statistics were a good fit: CFI = 0.984, TLI = 0.983, RMSEA = 0.050, 90% CI [0.044-0.055]. Achievement motive had a significantly direct effect on purpose in life (direct effect = 0.445, p value < 0.001), a significantly indirect effect on purpose in life via social participation or role expectation (indirect effect = 0.170, p value < 0.001) and a total effect on purpose in life (total effect = 0.615). Discussion. This result suggests that enhancing the intention to achieve one's goals enables participants to feel a spirit of challenge with a purpose and a sense of fulfillment in their daily lives.

Flood Risk Due to Hurricane Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivera, Francisco; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Irish, Jennifer

2015-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the expected economic losses caused by hurricane inundation. We used surge response functions, which are physics-based dimensionless scaling laws that give surge elevation as a function of the hurricane's parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location) at specified locations along the coast. These locations were close enough to avoid significant changes in surge elevations between consecutive points, and distant enough to minimize calculations. The probability of occurrence of a surge elevation value at a given location was estimated using a joint probability distribution of the hurricane parameters. The surge elevation, at the shoreline, was assumed to project horizontally inland within a polygon of influence. Individual parcel damage was calculated based on flood water depth and damage vs. depth curves available for different building types from the HAZUS computer application developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Parcel data, including property value and building type, were obtained from the county appraisal district offices. The expected economic losses were calculated as the sum of the products of the estimated parcel damages and their probability of occurrence for the different storms considered. Anticipated changes for future climate scenarios were considered by accounting for projected hurricane intensification, as indicated by sea surface temperature rise, and sea level rise, which modify the probability distribution of hurricane central pressure and change the baseline of the damage calculation, respectively. Maps of expected economic losses have been developed for Corpus Christi in Texas, Gulfport in Mississippi and Panama City in Florida. Specifically, for Port Aransas, in the Corpus Christi area, it was found that the expected economic losses were in the range of 1% to 4% of the property value for current climate conditions, of 1% to 8% for the 2030's and of 1% to 14% for the 2080's.

Variation in the days supply field for osteoporosis medications in Ontario.

PubMed

Burden, Andrea M; Huang, Anjie; Tadrous, Mina; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2013-01-01

We examined pharmacy claims for osteoporosis medications dispensed in the community (78 %) and long-term care (LTC) to determine if days supply values matched expected dosing intervals. Results identify potential reporting errors that can have implications for drug exposure misclassification, particularly in LTC where only 59 % of reported values matched expected values. The days supply field is commonly used to examine patterns of drug utilization and classify drug exposure, yet its accuracy has received little attention. We sought to describe the days supply reported for osteoporosis drugs and examine if values matched expected therapeutic dosing intervals. We examined days supply values for osteoporosis medications submitted to the Ontario Drug Benefits program for seniors, 1997-2011. Days supply values were evaluated by dosing regimen and setting (community or long-term care [LTC]) and compared to pre-defined expected values. We defined expected days supply by the therapeutic dosing interval: daily in 7- or 30-day intervals, or as 100 days; weekly in 7- or 30-day intervals; monthly and daily nasal spray in 28- or 30-day intervals; and cyclical etidronate as a 90-day supply. We identified 17,615,404 osteoporosis prescriptions, with 78 % dispensed in the community. Most daily oral prescriptions were dispensed by an expected therapeutic dosing interval (97 %). Annual IV zoledronic acid was most commonly dispensed as a 1-day supply (62 %). Distinct differences in agreement were observed for other regimens, with the expected days supply more commonly reported in community versus LTC: cyclical etidronate (86 % vs. 40 %), weekly (91 % vs. 60 %), monthly (94 % vs. 35 %), and nasal spray (84 % vs. 40 %). Results suggest that inaccuracies in the days supply field exist, particularly among prescriptions dispensed in LTC. Inaccurate reporting may have significant implications for osteoporosis drug exposure misclassification.

Strength and Structure of Ga1-xInx as Alloys

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-04-01

fixtures were ordered and received. An existing furnace and retort will be used to surround the compression fixture. The sample will be positioned in a B203...oncerns the experimental measurement of the flow stress and hardness as a function of temperature and In content:. High mprare hardns testing is used ...approximately 1/3 of the hardness 4 value9 so the latter indicates expected trends for yield stress. flWI1AL WORK The hardess tester used in this study was

Forcing Regression through a Given Point Using Any Familiar Computational Routine.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-03-01

a linear model , Y =a + OX + e ( Model I) then adopt the principle of least squares; and use sample data to estimate the unknown parameters, a and 8...has an expected value of zero indicates that the "average" response is considered linear . If c varies widely, Model I, though conceptually correct, may...relationship is linear from the maximum observed x to x - a, then Model II should be used. To pro- ceed with the customary evaluation of Model I would be

Calculation of Expectation Values of Operators in the Complex Scaling Method

DOE PAGES

Papadimitriou, G.

2016-06-14

In the complex scaling method (CSM) provides with a way to obtain resonance parameters of particle unstable states by rotating the coordinates and momenta of the original Hamiltonian. It is convenient to use an L 2 integrable basis to resolve the complex rotated or complex scaled Hamiltonian H θ , with θ being the angle of rotation in the complex energy plane. Within the CSM, resonance and scattering solutions have fall-off asymptotics. Furthermore, one of the consequences is that, expectation values of operators in a resonance or scattering complex scaled solution are calculated by complex rotating the operators. In thismore » work we are exploring applications of the CSM on calculations of expectation values of quantum mechanical operators by using the regularized backrotation technique and calculating hence the expectation value using the unrotated operator. Moreover, the test cases involve a schematic two-body Gaussian model and also applications using realistic interactions.« less

Toward {U}(N|M) knot invariant from ABJM theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eynard, Bertrand; Kimura, Taro

2017-06-01

We study {U}(N|M) character expectation value with the supermatrix Chern-Simons theory, known as the ABJM matrix model, with emphasis on its connection to the knot invariant. This average just gives the half-BPS circular Wilson loop expectation value in ABJM theory, which shall correspond to the unknot invariant. We derive the determinantal formula, which gives {U}(N|M) character expectation values in terms of {U}(1|1) averages for a particular type of character representations. This means that the {U}(1|1) character expectation value is a building block for the {U}(N|M) averages and also, by an appropriate limit, for the {U}(N) invariants. In addition to the original model, we introduce another supermatrix model obtained through the symplectic transform, which is motivated by the torus knot Chern-Simons matrix model. We obtain the Rosso-Jones-type formula and the spectral curve for this case.

Of goals and habits: age-related and individual differences in goal-directed decision-making.

PubMed

Eppinger, Ben; Walter, Maik; Heekeren, Hauke R; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this study we investigated age-related and individual differences in habitual (model-free) and goal-directed (model-based) decision-making. Specifically, we were interested in three questions. First, does age affect the balance between model-based and model-free decision mechanisms? Second, are these age-related changes due to age differences in working memory (WM) capacity? Third, can model-based behavior be affected by manipulating the distinctiveness of the reward value of choice options? To answer these questions we used a two-stage Markov decision task in in combination with computational modeling to dissociate model-based and model-free decision mechanisms. To affect model-based behavior in this task we manipulated the distinctiveness of reward probabilities of choice options. The results show age-related deficits in model-based decision-making, which are particularly pronounced if unexpected reward indicates the need for a shift in decision strategy. In this situation younger adults explore the task structure, whereas older adults show perseverative behavior. Consistent with previous findings, these results indicate that older adults have deficits in the representation and updating of expected reward value. We also observed substantial individual differences in model-based behavior. In younger adults high WM capacity is associated with greater model-based behavior and this effect is further elevated when reward probabilities are more distinct. However, in older adults we found no effect of WM capacity. Moreover, age differences in model-based behavior remained statistically significant, even after controlling for WM capacity. Thus, factors other than decline in WM, such as deficits in the in the integration of expected reward value into strategic decisions may contribute to the observed impairments in model-based behavior in older adults.

Of goals and habits: age-related and individual differences in goal-directed decision-making

PubMed Central

Eppinger, Ben; Walter, Maik; Heekeren, Hauke R.; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this study we investigated age-related and individual differences in habitual (model-free) and goal-directed (model-based) decision-making. Specifically, we were interested in three questions. First, does age affect the balance between model-based and model-free decision mechanisms? Second, are these age-related changes due to age differences in working memory (WM) capacity? Third, can model-based behavior be affected by manipulating the distinctiveness of the reward value of choice options? To answer these questions we used a two-stage Markov decision task in in combination with computational modeling to dissociate model-based and model-free decision mechanisms. To affect model-based behavior in this task we manipulated the distinctiveness of reward probabilities of choice options. The results show age-related deficits in model-based decision-making, which are particularly pronounced if unexpected reward indicates the need for a shift in decision strategy. In this situation younger adults explore the task structure, whereas older adults show perseverative behavior. Consistent with previous findings, these results indicate that older adults have deficits in the representation and updating of expected reward value. We also observed substantial individual differences in model-based behavior. In younger adults high WM capacity is associated with greater model-based behavior and this effect is further elevated when reward probabilities are more distinct. However, in older adults we found no effect of WM capacity. Moreover, age differences in model-based behavior remained statistically significant, even after controlling for WM capacity. Thus, factors other than decline in WM, such as deficits in the in the integration of expected reward value into strategic decisions may contribute to the observed impairments in model-based behavior in older adults. PMID:24399925

Benchmarking statewide trauma mortality using Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's patient safety indicators.

PubMed

Ang, Darwin; McKenney, Mark; Norwood, Scott; Kurek, Stanley; Kimbrell, Brian; Liu, Huazhi; Ziglar, Michele; Hurst, James

2015-09-01

Improving clinical outcomes of trauma patients is a challenging problem at a statewide level, particularly if data from the state's registry are not publicly available. Promotion of optimal care throughout the state is not possible unless clinical benchmarks are available for comparison. Using publicly available administrative data from the State Department of Health and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) patient safety indicators (PSIs), we sought to create a statewide method for benchmarking trauma mortality and at the same time also identifying a pattern of unique complications that have an independent influence on mortality. Data for this study were obtained from State of Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. Adult trauma patients were identified as having International Classification of Disease ninth edition codes defined by the state. Multivariate logistic regression was used to create a predictive inpatient expected mortality model. The expected value of PSIs was created using the multivariate model and their beta coefficients provided by the AHRQ. Case-mix adjusted mortality results were reported as observed to expected (O/E) ratios to examine mortality, PSIs, failure to prevent complications, and failure to rescue from death. There were 50,596 trauma patients evaluated during the study period. The overall fit of the expected mortality model was very strong at a c-statistic of 0.93. Twelve of 25 trauma centers had O/E ratios <1 or better than expected. Nine statewide PSIs had failure to prevent O/E ratios higher than expected. Five statewide PSIs had failure to rescue O/E ratios higher than expected. The PSI that had the strongest influence on trauma mortality for the state was PSI no. 9 or perioperative hemorrhage or hematoma. Mortality could be further substratified by PSI complications at the hospital level. AHRQ PSIs can have an integral role in an adjusted benchmarking method that screens at risk trauma centers in the state for higher than expected mortality. Stratifying mortality based on failure to prevent PSIs may identify areas of needed improvement at a statewide level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating investment returns from growing red pine.

Treesearch

Allen L. Lundgren

1966-01-01

This paper describes how to estimate present values of incomes and costs in growing red pine trees for sale as cordwood or sawtimber, and how to calculate expectation values and rates of return for a wide range of timber-growing conditions, using the tables of expectation value indexes and interest rate multipliers provided. It illustrates how to compare investment...

Economic values for growth and grade changes of sugar maple in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Richard M. Godman; Joseph J. Mendel

1978-01-01

Current and expected rates of value increase over a 10-year period were developed for sawtimber-size sugar maple based on variable growth rates, expected merchantable height changes, and butt log grade improvement. These economic guides, along with silvicultural considerations, provide a value basis for selecting trees during thinning and determining final harvest...

Modeling the Test-Taking Motivation Construct through Investigation of Psychometric Properties of an Expectancy-Value-Based Questionnaire

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knekta, Eva; Eklöf, Hanna

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of an expectancy-value-based questionnaire measuring five aspects of test-taking motivation (effort, expectancies, importance, interest, and test anxiety). The questionnaire was distributed to a sample of Swedish Grade 9 students taking a low-stakes (n = 1,047) or a high-stakes (n =…

The Puzzlingly Small Ca II Triplet Absorption in Elliptical Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saglia, R. P.; Maraston, Claudia; Thomas, Daniel; Bender, Ralf; Colless, Matthew

2002-11-01

We measure the central values (within Re/8) of the Ca II triplet line indices CaT* and CaT and the Paschen index PaT at 8600 Å for a 93% complete sample of 75 nearby early-type galaxies with BT<12 mag and Vgal<2490 km s-1. We find that the values of CaT* are constant to within 5% over the range of central velocity dispersions 100 km s-1<=σ<=340 km s-1, while the PaT (and CaT) values are mildly anticorrelated with σ. Using simple and composite stellar population models, we show the following: (1) The measured CaT* and CaT are lower than expected from simple stellar population (SSP) models with Salpeter initial mass functions (IMFs) and with metallicities and ages derived from optical Lick (Fe, Mg, and Hβ) indices. Uncertainties in the calibration, the fitting functions, and the SSP modeling taken separately cannot explain the discrepancy. On average, the observed PaT values are within the range allowed by the models and the large uncertainties in the fitting functions. (2) The steepening of the IMF at low masses required to lower the CaT* and CaT indices to the observed values is incompatible with the measured FeH index at 9916 Å and the dynamical mass-to-light ratios of elliptical galaxies. (3) Composite stellar populations with a low-metallicity component reduce the disagreement, but rather artificial metallicity distributions are needed. Another explanation may be that calcium is indeed underabundant in elliptical galaxies.

Shaping a valued learning journey: Student satisfaction with learning in undergraduate nursing programs, a grounded theory study.

PubMed

Smith, Morgan R; Grealish, Laurie; Henderson, Saras

2018-05-01

Student satisfaction is a quality measure of increasing importance in undergraduate programs, including nursing programs. To date theories of student satisfaction have focused primarily on students' perceptions of the educational environment rather than their perceptions of learning. Understanding how students determine satisfaction with learning is necessary to facilitate student learning across a range of educational contexts and meet the expectations of diverse stakeholders. To understand undergraduate nursing students' satisfaction with learning. Constructivist grounded theory methodology was used to identify how nursing students determined satisfaction with learning. Two large, multi-campus, nursing schools in Australia. Seventeen demographically diverse undergraduate nursing students studying different stages of a three year program participated in the study. Twenty nine semi-structured interviews were conducted. Students were invited to describe situations where they had been satisfied or dissatisfied with their learning. A constructivist grounded theory approach was used to analyse the data. Students are satisfied with learning when they shape a valued learning journey that accommodates social contexts of self, university and nursing workplace. The theory has three phases. Phase 1 - orienting self to valued learning in the pedagogical landscape; phase 2 - engaging with valued learning experiences across diverse pedagogical terrain; and phase 3 - recognising valued achievement along the way. When students experience a valued learning journey they are satisfied with their learning. Student satisfaction with learning is unique to the individual, changes over time and maybe transient or sustained, mild or intense. Finding from the research indicate areas where nurse academics may facilitate satisfaction with learning in undergraduate nursing programs while mindful of the expectations of other stakeholders such as the university, nurse registering authorities, employers and the receivers of nursing care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The justification of the level of public financing of health care to enhance health of population of the Russian Federation].

PubMed

Ulumbekova, G Z

2013-01-01

The article discusses the justification of management of public financing of health care in Russia. The technique of comparative analysis and evaluation of dependences between public health care financing and indicators of population health has been applied. It is demonstrated that to achieve the values of 75.6 years of life expectancy at birth and 11 of total mortality as target indicators of population health up to 2018 the amount of public health care financing is to be increased up to 1.5 times or up to 6% of GDP per year in prices of 2011. The sources of additional health care financing are proposed.

Measurement of math beliefs and their associations with math behaviors in college students.

PubMed

Hendy, Helen M; Schorschinsky, Nancy; Wade, Barbara

2014-12-01

Our purpose in the present study was to expand understanding of math beliefs in college students by developing 3 new psychometrically tested scales as guided by expectancy-value theory, self-efficacy theory, and health belief model. Additionally, we identified which math beliefs (and which theory) best explained variance in math behaviors and performance by college students and which students were most likely to have problematic math beliefs. Study participants included 368 college math students who completed questionnaires to report math behaviors (attending class, doing homework, reading textbooks, asking for help) and used a 5-point rating scale to indicate a variety of math beliefs. For a subset of 84 students, math professors provided final math grades. Factor analyses produced a 10-item Math Value Scale with 2 subscales (Class Devaluation, No Future Value), a 7-item single-dimension Math Confidence Scale, and an 11-item Math Barriers Scale with 2 subscales (Math Anxiety, Discouraging Words). Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that high levels of the newly discovered class devaluation belief (guided by expectancy-value theory) were most consistently associated with poor math behaviors in college students, with high math anxiety (guided by health belief model) and low math confidence (guided by self-efficacy theory) also found to be significant. Analyses of covariance revealed that younger and male students were at increased risk for class devaluation and older students were at increased risk for poor math confidence. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Prioritizing investments in health technology assessment. Can we assess potential value for money?

PubMed

Davies, L; Drummond, M; Papanikolaou, P

2000-01-01

The objective was to develop an economic prioritization model to assist those involved in the selection and prioritization of health technology assessment topics and commissioning of HTA projects. The model used decision analytic techniques to estimate the expected costs and benefits of the health care interventions that were the focus of the HTA question(s) considered by the NHS Health Technology Assessment Programme in England. Initial estimation of the value for money of HTA was conducted for several topics considered in 1997 and 1998. The results indicate that, using information routinely available in the literature and from the vignettes, it was not possible to estimate the absolute value of HTA with any certainty for this stage of the prioritization process. Overall, the results were uncertain for 65% of the HTA questions or topics analyzed. The relative costs of the interventions or technologies compared to existing costs of care and likely levels of utilization were critical factors in most of the analyses. The probability that the technology was effective with the HTA and the impact of the HTA on utilization rates were also key determinants of expected costs and benefits. The main conclusion was that it is feasible to conduct ex ante assessments of the value for money of HTA for specific topics. However, substantial work is required to ensure that the methods used are valid, reliable, consistent, and an efficient use of valuable research time.

Understanding the long-term influence of EIA on organisational learning and transformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Megan, E-mail: 31836179@student.murdoch.edu.au; Morrison-Saunders, Angus, E-mail: a.morrison-saunders@murdoch.edu.au

This research is an attempt to verify the notion postulated by Robert Bartlett and Lynton Caldwell that the full benefits of environmental impact assessment (EIA) would take decades to be realized. While EIA is intended to directly influence decision-making regarding new development proposals, the process is also expected to lead to organisational learning and transformation over time. Our aim was to examine the influence of EIA on a single Western Australian proponent with sustained experience in the process to understand how EIA is used within the organisation and to seek evidence of transformation of the organisation's purpose and mission. Themore » research reviewed literature in order to identify key influences of EIA on organisations, along with semi-structured staff interviews and document analysis for the case study organisation. Ascertaining causality that involvement in EIA processes influences or effects organisational learning and transformation is a challenge in the face of other societal events. Document analysis and interviewee data indicates that the action-forcing nature of EIA did influence proponent behavior through the creation of internal processes seeking to ensure robust design of new projects that would satisfy environmental protection expectations, without the need to trigger formal EIA. Evidence of EIA values and thinking were apparent within internal documentation, including the evolving mission statement. Our research indicates that participation in the EIA process can positively influence organisational learning and transformation by guiding internal change for decision-making. - Highlights: • The long-term influence of EIA on a proponent organisation is investigated. • EIA promotes internal organisational learning and transformation. • Analysis of mission statements can indicate the influence of EIA on organisations. • Organisations aligned with EIA values can reduce the need to engage in formal EIA.« less

Alcohol Expectancies and Evaluations of Aggression in Alcohol-Related Intimate-Partner Verbal and Physical Aggression

PubMed Central

Kachadourian, Lorig K; Quigley, Brian M; Leonard, Kenneth E

2014-01-01

Objective: Alcohol aggression expectancies have been found to be associated with increases in aggressive behavior. However, research has not consistently examined evaluations of such behavior. This is unfortunate as both expectancies and evaluations may play a role in whether such behavior will occur. Given this, the current study cross-sectionally examined the associations between alcohol aggression expectancies, evaluations of alcohol-related aggression, indicators of excessive drinking, and alcohol-related verbal and physical aggression. Method: The sample consisted of 280 married and cohabiting couples. These couples reported on excessive drinking indicators, alcohol expectancies and evaluations, and alcohol-related verbal and physical aggression during the past year. Results: Findings showed that verbal aggression was positively associated with indicators of excessive drinking among females and with alcohol aggression expectancies for females who evaluated such aggression positively. For males, aggression expectancies and indicators of excessive drinking were positively associated with verbal aggression. For physical aggression, results showed that indicators of excessive drinking and aggression expectancies were associated with physical aggression for females. For males, aggression expectancies were positively associated and evaluations were negatively associated with physical aggression. Conclusions: These findings add to previous research on alcohol aggression expectancies in close relationships and emphasize the importance of considering evaluations of alcohol-related behavior and how they may play a role in intimate-partner violence and aggression. PMID:25208191

Gray matter responsiveness to adaptive working memory training: a surface-based morphometry study

PubMed Central

Román, Francisco J.; Lewis, Lindsay B.; Chen, Chi-Hua; Karama, Sherif; Burgaleta, Miguel; Martínez, Kenia; Lepage, Claude; Jaeggi, Susanne M.; Evans, Alan C.; Kremen, William S.

2016-01-01

Here we analyze gray matter indices before and after completing a challenging adaptive cognitive training program based on the n-back task. The considered gray matter indices were cortical thickness (CT) and cortical surface area (CSA). Twenty-eight young women (age range 17–22 years) completed 24 training sessions over the course of 3 months (12 weeks, 24 sessions), showing expected performance improvements. CT and CSA values for the training group were compared with those of a matched control group. Statistical analyses were computed using a ROI framework defined by brain areas distinguished by their genetic underpinning. The interaction between group and time was analyzed. Middle temporal, ventral frontal, inferior parietal cortices, and pars opercularis were the regions where the training group showed conservation of gray matter with respect to the control group. These regions support working memory, resistance to interference, and inhibition. Furthermore, an interaction with baseline intelligence differences showed that the expected decreasing trend at the biological level for individuals showing relatively low intelligence levels at baseline was attenuated by the completed training. PMID:26701168

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.

2017-09-01

This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority—as an indicator of farmers' risk-bearing ability—on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right-truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to 141.4 acre-1 or 55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority-based water sharing mechanism.

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W

2017-09-01

This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority-as an indicator of farmers' risk-bearing ability-on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right-truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to $141.4 acre -1 or $55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority-based water sharing mechanism.

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty

PubMed Central

Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.

2017-01-01

Abstract This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority—as an indicator of farmers' risk‐bearing ability—on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right‐truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to $141.4 acre−1 or $55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority‐based water sharing mechanism. PMID:29200529

Extended space expectation values of position related operators for hydrogen-like quantum system evolutions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalay, Berfin; Demiralp, Metin

2014-10-06

The expectation value definitions over an extended space from the considered Hilbert space of the system under consideration is given in another paper of the second author in this symposium. There, in that paper, the conceptuality rather than specification is emphasized on. This work uses that conceptuality to investigate the time evolutions of the position related operators' expectation values not in its standard meaning but rather in a new version of the definition over not the original Hilbert space but in the space obtained by extensions via introducing the images of the given initial wave packet under the positive integermore » powers of the system Hamiltonian. These images may not be residing in the same space of the initial wave packet when certain singularities appear in the structure of the system Hamiltonian. This may break down the existence of the integrals in the definitions of the expectation values. The cure is the use of basis functions in the abovementioned extended space and the sandwiching of the target operator whose expectation value is under questioning by an appropriately chosen operator guaranteeing the existence of the relevant integrals. Work specifically focuses on the hydrogen-like quantum systems whose Hamiltonians contain a polar singularity at the origin.« less

Gender differences in salary and practice ownership expectations of matriculating veterinary students.

PubMed

Bristol, David G

2011-08-01

To examine gender differences in initial and long-term salary and practice ownership expectations among first-year veterinary students. Survey. First-year veterinary students at the North Carolina State University College of Veterinary Medicine during 2000 through 2003 and 2005 through 2009. A 1-page survey was distributed to students during orientation exercises or on the first day of a first-year course on ethics and jurisprudence. Students were asked to indicate their expected salary at graduation and in 5-year increments after graduation and to indicate whether they expected to own a practice after graduation. Responses were obtained from 567 female and 120 male students. There was no significant difference in initial salary expectations between male and female students. However, men had higher expectations for salary increases over the course of their career, so that expected salary was significantly higher for men than for women 5 years after graduation and beyond. A significantly greater percentage of men (69/93 [74.2%]) than women (242/499 [48.5%]) indicated they expected to own a practice. Although male and female veterinary students had similar expectations with regard to initial salaries, the male students had higher long-term salary expectations and were more likely to indicate an expectation to become a practice owner. Differences in expectations may lead to differences in behavior when those expectations are or are not met.

The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play.

PubMed

Kempton, Thomas; Kennedy, Nicholas; Coutts, Aaron J

2016-01-01

This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010-2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition's goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team's own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.

Valuing Trial Designs from a Pharmaceutical Perspective Using Value-Based Pricing.

PubMed

Breeze, Penny; Brennan, Alan

2015-11-01

Our aim was to adapt the traditional framework for expected net benefit of sampling (ENBS) to be more compatible with drug development trials from the pharmaceutical perspective. We modify the traditional framework for conducting ENBS and assume that the price of the drug is conditional on the trial outcomes. We use a value-based pricing (VBP) criterion to determine price conditional on trial data using Bayesian updating of cost-effectiveness (CE) model parameters. We assume that there is a threshold price below which the company would not market the new intervention. We present a case study in which a phase III trial sample size and trial duration are varied. For each trial design, we sampled 10,000 trial outcomes and estimated VBP using a CE model. The expected commercial net benefit is calculated as the expected profits minus the trial costs. A clinical trial with shorter follow-up, and larger sample size, generated the greatest expected commercial net benefit. Increasing the duration of follow-up had a modest impact on profit forecasts. Expected net benefit of sampling can be adapted to value clinical trials in the pharmaceutical industry to optimise the expected commercial net benefit. However, the analyses can be very time consuming for complex CE models. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

PubMed

D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

2008-12-01

When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

Ability Beliefs, Task Value, and Performance as a Function of Race in a Dart-Throwing Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gao, Zan; Kosma, Maria; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

2009-01-01

This study examines differences in self-efficacy, expectancy-related beliefs, task value, and performance in a dart-throwing task as a function of race among diverse college students using the expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory. It also examines the predictive contributions of these beliefs on task performance within each racial…

Why Do Children Worry about Their Academic Achievement? An Expectancy-Value Perspective on Elementary Students' Worries about Their Mathematics and Reading Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauermann, Fani; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.; Pekrun, Reinhard

2017-01-01

Children's worrying about their academic performance has profound implications for their learning and wellbeing in school. Understanding the contextual and psychological antecedents of students' worry thus represents an important area of research. Drawing on Eccles and colleagues' expectancy-value theory and Pekrun's control-value theory and using…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Özdemir, Semra Bayat; Demiralp, Metin

The determination of the energy states is highly studied issue in the quantum mechanics. Based on expectation values dynamics, energy states can be observed. But conditions and calculations vary depending on the created system. In this work, a symmetric exponential anharmonic oscillator is considered and development of a recursive approximation method is studied to find its ground energy state. The use of majorant values facilitates the approximate calculation of expectation values.

Decomposing cross-country differences in quality adjusted life expectancy: the impact of value sets.

PubMed

Heijink, Richard; van Baal, Pieter; Oppe, Mark; Koolman, Xander; Westert, Gert

2011-06-23

The validity, reliability and cross-country comparability of summary measures of population health (SMPH) have been persistently debated. In this debate, the measurement and valuation of nonfatal health outcomes have been defined as key issues. Our goal was to quantify and decompose international differences in health expectancy based on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We focused on the impact of value set choice on cross-country variation. We calculated Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE) at age 20 for 15 countries in which EQ-5D population surveys had been conducted. We applied the Sullivan approach to combine the EQ-5D based HRQoL data with life tables from the Human Mortality Database. Mean HRQoL by country-gender-age was estimated using a parametric model. We used nonparametric bootstrap techniques to compute confidence intervals. QALE was then compared across the six country-specific time trade-off value sets that were available. Finally, three counterfactual estimates were generated in order to assess the contribution of mortality, health states and health-state values to cross-country differences in QALE. QALE at age 20 ranged from 33 years in Armenia to almost 61 years in Japan, using the UK value set. The value sets of the other five countries generated different estimates, up to seven years higher. The relative impact of choosing a different value set differed across country-gender strata between 2% and 20%. In 50% of the country-gender strata the ranking changed by two or more positions across value sets. The decomposition demonstrated a varying impact of health states, health-state values, and mortality on QALE differences across countries. The choice of the value set in SMPH may seriously affect cross-country comparisons of health expectancy, even across populations of similar levels of wealth and education. In our opinion, it is essential to get more insight into the drivers of differences in health-state values across populations. This will enhance the usefulness of health-expectancy measures.

EML Gamma Spectrometry Data Evaluation Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Decker, Karin M.

1998-02-28

This report represents the results of the analyses for the second EML Gamma Spectrometry Data Evaluation Program (August 1997). A calibration spectrum, a background spectrum and three sample spectra were included for each software format as part of the evaluation. The calibration spectrum contained nuclides covering the range from 59.5 keV to 1836 keV. The participants were told fallout and fission product nuclides as well as naturally occurring nuclides could be present. The samples were designed to test the detection and quantification of very low levels of nuclides and the ability of the software and user to properly resolve multiplets.more » The participants were asked to report values and uncertainties as Becquerel per sample with no decay correction. Twenty-nine sets of results were reported from a total of 70 laboratories who received the spectra. The percentage of the results within 1 F of the expected value was 76, 67, and 55 for samples 1, 2, and 3, respectively. From all three samples, 12% of the results were more than 3 F from the expected value. Sixty-two nuclides out of a total of 580 expected results were not reported for the three samples. Sixty percent of these false negatives were due to nuclides which were present at the minimum detectable activity level. There were 53 false positives reported with 60% of the responses due to problems with background subtraction. The results indicate that the Program is beneficial to the participating laboratories in that it provides them with analysis problems that are difficult to create with spiked samples due to the unavailability of many nuclides and the short half-lives of others. EML will continue its annual distribution, the third is to be held in March 1999.« less

The optimality of different strategies for supplemental staging of non-small-cell lung cancer: a health economic decision analysis.

PubMed

Søgaard, Rikke; Fischer, Barbara Malene B; Mortensen, Jann; Rasmussen, Torben R; Lassen, Ulrik

2013-01-01

To assess the expected costs and outcomes of alternative strategies for staging of lung cancer to inform a Danish National Health Service perspective about the most cost-effective strategy. A decision tree was specified for patients with a confirmed diagnosis of non-small-cell lung cancer. Six strategies were defined from relevant combinations of mediastinoscopy, endoscopic or endobronchial ultrasound with needle aspiration, and combined positron emission tomography-computed tomography with F18-fluorodeoxyglucose. Patients without distant metastases and central or contralateral nodal involvement (N2/N3) were considered to be candidates for surgical resection. Diagnostic accuracies were informed from literature reviews, prevalence and survival from the Danish Lung Cancer Registry, and procedure costs from national average tariffs. All parameters were specified probabilistically to determine the joint decision uncertainty. The cost-effectiveness analysis was based on the net present value of expected costs and life years accrued over a time horizon of 5 years. At threshold values of around €30,000 for cost-effectiveness, it was found to be cost-effective to send all patients to positron emission tomography-computed tomography with confirmation of positive findings on nodal involvement by endobronchial ultrasound. This result appeared robust in deterministic sensitivity analysis. The expected value of perfect information was estimated at €52 per patient, indicating that further research might be worthwhile. The policy recommendation is to make combined positron emission tomography-computed tomography and endobronchial ultrasound available for supplemental staging of patients with non-small-cell lung cancer. The effects of alternative strategies on patients' quality of life, however, should be examined in future studies. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment

PubMed Central

Bor, Jacob; Herbst, Abraham J; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

2013-01-01

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years – an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors. PMID:23430655

Sedimentary 4-desmethyl sterols and n-alkanols in an eutrophic urban estuary, Capibaribe River, Brazil.

PubMed

Fernandes, M B; Sicre, M A; Cardoso, J N; Macêdo, S J

1999-06-15

Sterols, n-alkanols, organic carbon (OC), C/N ratios and carbon isotope data (delta 13C) were investigated in sediments of the urban Capibaribe River estuary, NE Brazil, in order to assess allochthonous and autochthonous sources of organic matter (OM). Sedimentary OC values are high, but C/N ratios and delta 13C data generally fall within the range of values reported in other riverine systems, and suggest mixed inputs from aquatic and terrestrial matter. Mean values for total 4-desmethyl sterols and high molecular weight (HMW) n-alkanols are 11.0 micrograms/g and 2.8 micrograms/g, respectively. Sterols are found at highest levels in areas of enhanced urban outfalls. They can be related to major planktonic species growing in riverine waters. Stanol/stenol ratios suggest a high degree of alteration of the autochthonous OM as a result of elevated temperatures and microbiological proliferation. Even though sterols suggest the importance of autochthonous inputs to the river, HMW n-alkanols indicate major terrigenous accumulation at the mouth and 10 km upriver. Coprostanol and epicoprostanol levels are comparable to other sewage contaminated hydrosystems, but not as high as expected given the importance of sewage outfalls and low riverine water discharge. However, high (coprostanol)/(coprostanol + cholestanol) ratio values indicate that fecal contamination is significant.

Analysis of genetic diversity and differentiation of seven stocks of Litopenaeus vannamei using microsatellite markers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Wang, Weiji; Li, Weiya; Zhang, Quanqi; Kong, Jie

2014-08-01

Seven microsatellite markers were used to evaluate the genetic diversity and differentiation of seven stocks of Litopenaeus vannamei, which were introduced from Central and South America to China. All seven microsatellite loci were polymorphic, with polymorphism information content ( PIC) values ranging from 0.593 to 0.952. Totally 92 alleles were identified, and the number of alleles ( Na) and effective alleles ( Ne) varied between 4 and 21 and 2.7 and 14.6, respectively. Observed heterozygosity ( H o) values were lower than the expected heterozygosity ( H e) values (0.526-0.754), which indicated that the seven stocks possessed a rich genetic diversity. Thirty-seven tests were detected for reasonable significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. F is values were positive at five loci, suggesting that there was a relatively high degree of inbreeding within stocks. Pairwise F st values ranged from 0.0225 to 0.151, and most of the stock pairs were moderately differentiated. Genetic distance and cluster analysis using UPGMA revealed a close genetic relationship of L. vannamei between Pop2 and Pop3. AMOVA indicated that the genetic variation among stocks (11.3%) was much lower than that within stocks (88.7%). Although the seven stocks had a certain degree of genetic differentiation and a rich genetic diversity, there is an increasing risk of decreased performance due to inbreeding in subsequent generations.

Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality: results of a 10-year panel study among older workers.

PubMed

van Solinge, Hanna; Henkens, Kène

2018-06-01

This research examined the judgemental process underlying subjective life expectancy (SLE) and the predictive value of SLE on actual mortality in older adults in the Netherlands. We integrated theoretical insights from life satisfaction research with existing models of SLE. Our model differentiates between bottom-up (objective data of any type) and top-down factors (psychological variables). The study used data from the first wave of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute Work and Retirement Panel. This is a prospective cohort study among Dutch older workers. The analytical sample included 2278 individuals, assessed at age 50-64 in 2001, with vital statistics tracked through 2011. We used a linear regression model to estimate the impact of bottom-up and top-down factors on SLE. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the impact of SLE on the timing of mortality, crude and adjusted for actuarial correlates of general life expectancy, family history, health and trait-like dispositions. Results reveal that psychological variables play a role in the formation of SLE. Further, the results indicate that SLE predicts actual mortality, crude and adjusted for socio-demographic, biomedical and psychological confounders. Education has an additional effect on mortality. Those with higher educational attainment were less likely to die within the follow-up period. This SES gradient in mortality was not captured in SLE. The findings indicate that SLE is an independent predictor of mortality in a pre-retirement cohort in the Netherlands. SLE does not fully capture educational differences in mortality. Particularly, higher-educated individuals underestimate their life expectancy.

Mean Expected Error in Prediction of Total Body Water: A True Accuracy Comparison between Bioimpedance Spectroscopy and Single Frequency Regression Equations

PubMed Central

Abtahi, Shirin; Abtahi, Farhad; Ellegård, Lars; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Bosaeus, Ingvar

2015-01-01

For several decades electrical bioimpedance (EBI) has been used to assess body fluid distribution and body composition. Despite the development of several different approaches for assessing total body water (TBW), it remains uncertain whether bioimpedance spectroscopic (BIS) approaches are more accurate than single frequency regression equations. The main objective of this study was to answer this question by calculating the expected accuracy of a single measurement for different EBI methods. The results of this study showed that all methods produced similarly high correlation and concordance coefficients, indicating good accuracy as a method. Even the limits of agreement produced from the Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the performance of single frequency, Sun's prediction equations, at population level was close to the performance of both BIS methods; however, when comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value between the single frequency prediction equations and the BIS methods, a significant difference was obtained, indicating slightly better accuracy for the BIS methods. Despite the higher accuracy of BIS methods over 50 kHz prediction equations at both population and individual level, the magnitude of the improvement was small. Such slight improvement in accuracy of BIS methods is suggested insufficient to warrant their clinical use where the most accurate predictions of TBW are required, for example, when assessing over-fluidic status on dialysis. To reach expected errors below 4-5%, novel and individualized approaches must be developed to improve the accuracy of bioimpedance-based methods for the advent of innovative personalized health monitoring applications. PMID:26137489

Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain.

PubMed

Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

2014-01-28

Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain.

Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain

PubMed Central

Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

2014-01-01

Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain. PMID:24474790

Osmium Stable Isotope Composition of Chondrites and Iron Meteorites: Implications for Planetary Core Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanne, J. A. M.; Millet, M. A.; Burton, K. W.; Dale, C. W.; Nowell, G. M.; Williams, H. M.

2016-12-01

Mass-dependent Os stable isotope fractionation is expected to occur during metal-silicate segregation as well as during crystallization of metal alloys due to the different bonding environment between silicate and metals. As such, Os stable isotopes have the potential to resolve questions pertaining to planetary accretion and differentiation. Here, we present stable Os isotope data for a set of chondrites and iron meteorites to examine the processes associated with core solidification. Carbonaceous, ordinary, and enstatite chondrites show no detectable stable isotope variation with a δ190Os weighted average of +0.12±0.04 (n=37). The uniform composition observed for chondrites implies Os stable isotope homogeneity of the bulk solar nebula. Contrary to chondrites, iron meteorites display a large range in Os stable isotope compositions from δ190Os of +0.05 up to +0.49‰. Variation is only observed in the IIAB and IIIAB irons. Type IVB irons display values similar to chondrites (+0.107±0.047 [n=3]) and IVA compositions are slightly different +0.187±0.004 (n=2). The type IIAB and IIIAB groups show values both within the chondritic range and up to heavier values extending up to +0.49‰. Since core formation in small planetary bodies is expected to quantitatively sequester Os in metal phases, bulk planetary cores are expected to display chondritic δ190Os values. Conversely, samples of the IIAB and IIIAB group display significant variation, possibly indicating that stable isotope fractionation occurred during solidification of the parent-body core. However, no covariation is observed between δ190Os and either Os abundance or radiogenic Os isotope ratios. Instead, liquid immiscibility during core crystallization, where the liquid metal splits into separate S- and P-rich liquids, may be a source of Os stable isotope fractionation.

Electrical properties of n-type GaSb substrates and p-type GaSb buffer layers for InAs/InGaSb superlattice infrared detectors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchel, W. C., E-mail: William.Mitchel.1@us.af.mil; Haugan, H. J.; Mou, Shin

2015-09-15

Lightly doped n-type GaSb substrates with p-type GaSb buffer layers are the preferred templates for growth of InAs/InGaSb superlattices used in infrared detector applications because of relatively high infrared transmission and a close lattice match to the superlattices. We report here temperature dependent resistivity and Hall effect measurements of bare substrates and substrate-p-type buffer layer structures grown by molecular beam epitaxy. Multicarrier analysis of the resistivity and Hall coefficient data demonstrate that high temperature transport in the substrates is due to conduction in both the high mobility zone center Γ band and the low mobility off-center L band. High overallmore » mobility values indicate the absence of close compensation and that improved infrared and transport properties were achieved by a reduction in intrinsic acceptor concentration. Standard transport measurements of the undoped buffer layers show p-type conduction up to 300 K indicating electrical isolation of the buffer layer from the lightly n-type GaSb substrate. However, the highest temperature data indicate the early stages of the expected p to n type conversion which leads to apparent anomalously high carrier concentrations and lower than expected mobilities. Data at 77 K indicate very high quality buffer layers.« less

Cognitive and emotional outcome after pediatric liver transplantation.

PubMed

Adebäck, Petra; Nemeth, Antal; Fischler, Björn

2003-10-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate the cognitive and emotional development after pediatric liver transplantation. A total of 21 patients, aged 4-16.9 yr (median 9.6 yr) were tested 1-9 yr (median 4.2 yr) after the transplantation. The pretransplant diagnoses included biliary atresia (eight patients), various metabolic diseases (n = 6), acute liver failure (n = 3), and miscellaneous (n = 4). The cognitive functions were tested with Wechsler preschool and primary scale of intelligence (WPPSI)-R or Wechsler intelligence scale for children (WISC)-III according to age. The Piers-Harris self-concept scale and the evaluation of human figure drawings according to Koppitz were used to detect emotional problems. All tests in all patients were performed by the same psychologist. A significantly lower result on cognitive tests was seen when compared with the expected normal values (p < 0.01). The number of patients with results within or under the lower normal range was higher than expected. Although the mean value of the Piers-Harris self-concept scale was normal, there was a large spread within the group. Indicators of emotional problems were found in the human figure drawings of 50% of the patients. To some extent, low cognitive scores coincided with low scores on self-concept scale and indicators of emotional difficulties. We conclude that the high degree of cognitive and emotional problems after liver transplantation is an important argument for routine psychologic follow-up and support in these patients.

Dynamical Typicality Approach to Eigenstate Thermalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimann, Peter

2018-06-01

We consider the set of all initial states within a microcanonical energy shell of an isolated many-body quantum system, which exhibit an arbitrary but fixed nonequilibrium expectation value for some given observable A . On the condition that this set is not too small, it is shown by means of a dynamical typicality approach that most such initial states exhibit thermalization if and only if A satisfies the so-called weak eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (wETH). Here, thermalization means that the expectation value of A spends most of its time close to the microcanonical value after initial transients have died out. The wETH means that, within the energy shell, most eigenstates of the pertinent system Hamiltonian exhibit very similar expectation values of A .

VA-Index: Quantifying Assortativity Patterns in Networks with Multidimensional Nodal Attributes (Open Access)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-27

bias of the estimator U, bias(U), the difference between this estimator’s expected value and the true value of the parameter being estimated, i.e...biasðUÞ ¼ EðU yÞ ¼ EðUÞ y ð9Þ Based on the above definition, an unbiased estimator is one whose expected value is equal to the true value being...equal to 0.94 (p- value < 0.05), if we con- sider the pure ER network model as our baseline, and 0.31 (p- value < 0.05), if we control for the home

Mental models of adherence: parallels in perceptions, values, and expectations in adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and other personal regimens.

PubMed

Rizzo, Jon; Bell, Alexandra

2018-05-09

A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which strongly influences behaviors. This study explored orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and how they related to mental models of adherence to other types of personal regimens. The study followed an interpretive description qualitative design. Data were collected via two semi-structured interviews. Interview One focused on participants prior experiences adhering to personal regimens. Interview Two focused on experiences adhering to their current prescribed home exercise program. Data analysis followed a constant comparative method. Findings revealed similarity in perceptions, values, and expectations that informed individuals mental models of adherence to personal regimens and prescribed home exercise programs. Perceived realized results, expected results, perceived social supports, and value of convenience characterized mental models of adherence. Parallels between mental models of adherence for prescribed home exercise and other personal regimens suggest that patients adherence behavior to prescribed routines may be influenced by adherence experiences in other aspects of their lives. By gaining insight into patients adherence experiences, values, and expectations across life domains, clinicians may tailor supports that enhance home exercise adherence. Implications for Rehabilitation A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which is based on prior experiences and strongly influences behaviors. This study demonstrated similarity in orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and adherence to personal regimens in other aspects of their lives. Physical therapists should inquire about patients non-medical adherence experiences, as strategies patients customarily use to adhere to other activities may inform strategies to promote prescribed home exercise adherence.

Assertiveness expectancies: how hard people push depends on the consequences they predict.

PubMed

Ames, Daniel R

2008-12-01

The present article seeks to explain varying levels of assertiveness in interpersonal conflict and negotiations with assertiveness expectancies, idiosyncratic predictions people make about the social and instrumental consequences of assertive behavior. This account complements motivation-based models of assertiveness and competitiveness, suggesting that individuals may possess the same social values (e.g., concern for relationships) but show dramatically different assertiveness due to different assumptions about behavioral consequences. Results clarify the form of assertiveness expectancies, namely that most people assume increasing assertiveness can yield positive social and instrumental benefits up to a point, beyond which benefits decline. However, people vary in how assertive this perceived optimal point is. These individual differences in expectancies are linked in 4 studies to assertiveness, including self-reported assertiveness, rated behavioral preferences in assorted interpersonal conflict scenarios, partner ratings of participants' behavior in a face-to-face dyadic negotiation, and work colleague ratings of participants' assertiveness in the workplace. In each case, the link between expectancies and behavior remained after controlling for values. The results suggest a place for expectancies alongside values in psychological models of interpersonal assertiveness.

Expected value analysis for integrated supplier selection and inventory control of multi-product inventory system with fuzzy cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno, Widowati, Tjahjana, R. Heru

2017-12-01

The future cost in many industrial problem is obviously uncertain. Then a mathematical analysis for a problem with uncertain cost is needed. In this article, we deals with the fuzzy expected value analysis to solve an integrated supplier selection and supplier selection problem with uncertain cost where the costs uncertainty is approached by a fuzzy variable. We formulate the mathematical model of the problems fuzzy expected value based quadratic optimization with total cost objective function and solve it by using expected value based fuzzy programming. From the numerical examples result performed by the authors, the supplier selection problem was solved i.e. the optimal supplier was selected for each time period where the optimal product volume of all product that should be purchased from each supplier for each time period was determined and the product stock level was controlled as decided by the authors i.e. it was followed the given reference level.

Hemograms for and nutritional condition of migrant bald eagles tested for exposure to lead.

PubMed

Miller, M J; Wayland, M E; Bortolotti, G R

2001-07-01

Plasma proteins, hematocrit, differential blood counts were examined and nutritional condition was estimated for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) trapped (n = 66) during antumn migration, 1994-95 at Galloway Bay (Saskatchewan, Canada), for the purposes of estimating prevalence of exposure to lead. Sex and age differences in hematocrit and plasma proteins were not observed; however, female eagles exhibited larger median absolute heterophil counts than males. Hematologic values were similar to those previously reported from eagles in captivity. Departures from expected hematological values from a healthy population of eagles were not observed in birds with elevated levels of blood lead (> or =0.200 microg/ml). Similarly, nutritional condition was not related to blood-lead concentrations. Therefore, it appears that lead exposure in this population was below a threshold required to indicate toxicological alteration in the hematological values and index of nutritional condition that we measured.

Development of an artificial multifunctional foot: A project review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, João; Ferreira, Maria José; Lobarinhas, Pedro; Silva, Luís F.; Leite, Abílio; Araújo, Alfredo; Sousa, Fernando

2013-10-01

The main purpose of this project is the development of a multifunctional artificial foot, capable of duplicate a human foot in a laboratory environment, in order to evaluate and simulate footwear's performance under certain conditions. This foot is used as a laboratory prototype and is multisegmented, in order that each section is controlled independently in terms of heat generation and sweating rate, therefore it is possible to simulate more accurately the real behaviour of a human foot. The device produces thermal insulation values that will help to design footwear with better ability in terms of thermal comfort, replacing human volunteers in thermal comfort perception tests, which are very subjective. The prototype was already tested, and preliminary results indicated that thermal insulation values are within the range of expected values produced by other foot thermal manikins and by human volunteers' tests. This fact suggests that this lab prototype can be used infuture thermal comfort evaluations.

Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Pottier, Julien; Malenovský, Zbyněk; Psomas, Achilleas; Homolová, Lucie; Schaepman, Michael E.; Choler, Philippe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guisan, Antoine; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2014-01-01

Remote sensing using airborne imaging spectroscopy (AIS) is known to retrieve fundamental optical properties of ecosystems. However, the value of these properties for predicting plant species distribution remains unclear. Here, we assess whether such data can add value to topographic variables for predicting plant distributions in French and Swiss alpine grasslands. We fitted statistical models with high spectral and spatial resolution reflectance data and tested four optical indices sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water content and leaf area index. We found moderate added-value of AIS data for predicting alpine plant species distribution. Contrary to expectations, differences between species distribution models (SDMs) were not linked to their local abundance or phylogenetic/functional similarity. Moreover, spectral signatures of species were found to be partly site-specific. We discuss current limits of AIS-based SDMs, highlighting issues of scale and informational content of AIS data. PMID:25079495

The role of social message using norm abstraction level and ecological value orientation to achieve sustainable consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekasari, A.

2018-01-01

Pro-environmental behavior is one of human activities to achieve sustainability. In order to encourage people to do so, it needs contribution from marketing discipline using social message. The research aims to investigate the effect of social message framed by norm abstraction level and ecological value orientation on attitude and intention to act pro-environmental behavior in the context of littering. This study implemented a 3 (message framing: biospheric/altruistic/egoistic) × 2 (norm abstraction level : abstract/concrete) between subject experimental design to collect the data. An independent sample t test was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that a social message using concrete norm combined with the three ecological value orientation gains more positive response than the use of abstract norm with the same ecological value orientations. Findings of the research are expected to help government or other institutions to create an appropriate social message in anti littering campaign and motivates people to change their behavior in practicing sustainable consumption.

Distribution of apparent activation energy counterparts during thermo - And thermo-oxidative degradation of Aronia melanocarpa (black chokeberry).

PubMed

Janković, Bojan; Marinović-Cincović, Milena; Janković, Marija

2017-09-01

Kinetics of degradation for Aronia melanocarpa fresh fruits in argon and air atmospheres were investigated. The investigation was based on probability distributions of apparent activation energy of counterparts (ε a ). Isoconversional analysis results indicated that the degradation process in an inert atmosphere was governed by decomposition reactions of esterified compounds. Also, based on same kinetics approach, it was assumed that in an air atmosphere, the primary compound in degradation pathways could be anthocyanins, which undergo rapid chemical reactions. A new model of reactivity demonstrated that, under inert atmospheres, expectation values for ε a occured at levels of statistical probability. These values corresponded to decomposition processes in which polyphenolic compounds might be involved. ε a values obeyed laws of binomial distribution. It was established that, for thermo-oxidative degradation, Poisson distribution represented a very successful approximation for ε a values where there was additional mechanistic complexity and the binomial distribution was no longer valid. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple isotope analyses of the pike tapeworm Triaenophorus nodulosus reveal peculiarities in consumer-diet discrimination patterns.

PubMed

Behrmann-Godel, J; Yohannes, E

2015-03-01

Previous studies of dietary isotope discrimination have led to the general expectation that a consumer will exhibit enriched stable isotope levels relative to its diet. Parasite-host systems are specific consumer-diet pairs in which the consumer (parasite) feeds exclusively on one dietary source: host tissue. However, the small numbers of studies previously carried out on isotopic discrimination in parasite-host (ΔXP-HT) systems have yielded controversial results, showing some parasites to be isotopically depleted relative to their food source, while others are enriched or in equilibrium with their hosts. Although the mechanism for these deviations from expectations remains to be understood, possible influences of specific feeding niche or selection for only a few nutritional components by the parasite are discussed. ΔXP-HT for multiple isotopes (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S) were measured in the pike tapeworm Triaenophorus nodulosus and two of its life-cycle fish hosts, perch Perca fluviatilis and pike Esox lucius, within which T. nodulosus occupies different feeding locations. Variability in the value of ΔXP-HT calculated for the parasite and its different hosts indicates an influence of feeding location on isotopic discrimination. In perch liver ΔXP-HT was relatively more negative for all three stable isotopes. In pike gut ΔXP-HT was more positive for δ13C, as expected in conventional consumer-diet systems. For parasites feeding on pike gut, however, the δ15N and δ34S isotope values were comparable with those of the host. We discuss potential causes of these deviations from expectations, including the effect of specific parasite feeding niches, and conclude that ΔXP-HT should be critically evaluated for trophic interactions between parasite and host before general patterns are assumed.

Nuclear analysis of structural damage and nuclear heating on enhanced K-DEMO divertor model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Im, K.; Kwon, S.; Kim, J.; Kim, D.; Woo, M.; Shin, C.

2017-12-01

This paper addresses nuclear analysis on the Korean fusion demonstration reactor (K-DEMO) divertor to estimate the overall trend of nuclear heating values and displacement damages. The K-DEMO divertor model was created and converted by the CAD (Pro-Engineer™) and Monte Carlo automatic modeling programs as a 22.5° sector of the tokamak. The Monte Carlo neutron photon transport and ADVANTG codes were used in this calculation with the FENDL-2.1 nuclear data library. The calculation results indicate that the highest values appeared on the upper outboard target (OT) area, which means the OT is exposed to the highest radiation conditions among the three plasma-facing parts (inboard, central and outboard) in the divertor. Especially, much lower nuclear heating values and displacement damages are indicated on the lower part of the OT area than others. These are important results contributing to thermal-hydraulic and thermo-mechanical analyses on the divertor and also it is expected that the copper alloy materials may be partially used as a heat sink only at the lower part of the OT instead of the reduced activation ferritic-martensitic steel due to copper alloy’s high thermal conductivity.

Effect of Composition on the Voltage Fade Phenomenon in Lithium-, Manganese-Rich xLiMnO 3•(1-x)LiNi aMn bCo cO 2: A Combinatorial Synthesis Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vu, Anh; Qin, Yan; Bareno, Javier

2015-10-30

The effect of composition on the voltage fade phenomenon was probed using combinatorial synthesis methods. In compositions that have the general formula, (Li 2MnO 3) a(LiNiO 2) b(LiMnO 2) c(LiCoO 2) d, where 0 ≤ a≤0.83, 0.15 ≤ b ≤ 0.42, 0 ≤ c ≤ 0.85, and 0 ≤ d ≤ 0.30 (a + b + c + d = 1), the dependence of features in the x-ray diffraction pattern and of voltage fade on composition were identified and mapped. The observed values of voltage fade indicated that it displayed some sensitivity to composition, but that the sensitivity was notmore » large. The values of voltage fade were found to be amenable to statistical modeling. The model indicated that it may be possible to lower the value of voltage fade below 0.01% by adjusting the composition of the system; however, the composition is not expected to have the layered–layered structure.« less

Amenable mortality as a performance indicator of Italian health-care services

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Mortality amenable to health-care services (‘amenable mortality’) has been defined as “premature deaths that should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care” and as “conditions for which effective clinical interventions exist.” We analyzed the regional variability in health-care services using amenable mortality as a performance indicator. Convergent validity was examined against other indicators, such as health expenditure, GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, disability-free life expectancy at age 15, number of diagnostic and laboratory tests per 1,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence of cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Methods Amenable mortality rate was calculated as the average annual number of deaths in the population aged 0–74 years per 100,000 inhabitants, and it was then stratified by gender and region. Data were drawn from national mortality statistics for the period 2006–08. Results During the study period (2006–08), the age-standardized death rate (SDR) amenable to health-care services in Italy was 62.6 per 100,000 inhabitants: 66.0 per 100,000 for males and 59.1 per 100,000 for females. Significant regional variations ranged from 54.1 per 100,000 inhabitants in Alto Adige to 76.3 per 100,000 in Campania. Regional variability in SDR was examined separately for male and females. The variability proved to be statistically significant for both males and females (males: Q-test = 638.5, p < 0.001; females: Q-test = 700.1, p < 0.001). However, among men, we found a clear-cut divide in SDR values between Central and Southern Italy; among women, this divide was less pronounced. Amenable mortality was negatively correlated with life expectancy at birth for both genders (male: r = −0.64, p = 0.002; female: r = −0.88, p <0.001) and with disability-free life expectancy at age 15 (male: r = −0.70, p <0.001; female: r = −0.67, p <0.001). Amenable mortality displayed a statistically significant negative relationship with GDP per capita, the quantity of diagnostic and laboratory tests per 1,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence of cancer. Conclusions Amenable mortality shows a wide variation across Italian regions and an inverse relationship with life expectancy and GDP per capita, as expected. PMID:22963259

Genetic diversity of loquat germplasm (Eriobotrya japonica (Thunb) Lindl) assessed by SSR markers.

PubMed

Soriano, José Miguel; Romero, Carlos; Vilanova, Santiago; Llácer, Gerardo; Badenes, María Luisa

2005-02-01

Genetic relationships among 40 loquat (Eriobotrya japonica (Thunb) Lindl) accessions that originated from different countries and that are part of the germplasm collection of the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Agrarias (IVIA) (Valencia, Spain) were evaluated using microsatellites. Thirty primer pairs flanking microsatellites previously identified in Malus x domestica (Borkh.) were assayed. Thirteen of them amplified polymorphic products and unambiguously distinguished 34 genotypes from the 40 accessions analyzed. Six accessions showing identical marker patterns were Spanish local varieties thought to have been derived from 'Algerie' by a mutational process very common in loquat species. A total of 39 alleles were detected in the population studied, with a mean value of 2.4 alleles per locus. The expected and observed heterozygosities were 0.46 and 51% on average, respectively, leading to a negative value of the Wright's fixation index (-0.20). The values of these parameters indicate a smaller degree of genetic diversity in the set of loquat accessions analyzed than in other members of the Rosaceae family. Unweighted pair-group method (UPGMA) cluster analysis, based on Nei's genetic distance, generally grouped genotypes according to their geographic origins and pedigrees. The high number of alleles and the high expected heterozygosity detected with SSR markers developed in Malus x domestica (Borkh.) make them a suitable tool for loquat cultivar identification, confirming microsatellite marker transportability among genera in the Rosaceae family.

Self-efficacy and relevance of bioscience for nursing, midwifery and healthcare students.

PubMed

Andrew, Sharon; McVicar, Andrew; Zanganeh, Mandana; Henderson, Nigel

2015-10-01

To examine nursing, midwifery and allied healthcare students' self-efficacy for science, perceived relevance of bioscience to their studies and expectations for academic success and the changes that occur after completing first-year introductory bioscience subjects. Bioscience is a foundation subject that underpins nursing, midwifery and other allied health courses. Bioscience subjects continue to be source of anxiety for students in those courses. Raising students' self-efficacy and perceptions of the importance and utility of bioscience to practice may be a way of ameliorating students' expectations and confidence in this subject area. A prospective correlational survey design. Students were surveyed in the first semester of first year and the commencement of the second year. Students were drawn from nursing, midwifery, public health and allied health courses. The surveys contained scales for self-efficacy for science, perceived relevance of bioscience to their course and personal expectations for success in their bioscience subject. Ninety-seven and 82 students completed survey 1 and 2 respectively. Twenty-six surveys could be matched. Self-efficacy increased from survey 1 to survey 2, but expectations for academic success and task value, a measure for relevance, were lower. This was statistically significant for the matched pair sample. Using a mean split, students with high self-efficacy valued science more and had higher expectations for success in their bioscience courses than those with low self-efficacy. Academic success in bioscience, confidence undertaking science tasks and perceiving bioscience as relevant to their course are interwoven concepts that are important for nursing, midwifery and applied healthcare students and ultimately for their professional practice. Literature indicates practitioners may not feel confident in their bioscience knowledge. Assisting undergraduate students to develop confidence in and perceive the relevance of bioscience to their discipline may ultimately impact on clinical practice. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimal Hedging Rule for Reservoir Refill Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, W.; Zhao, J.; Lund, J. R.; Zhao, T.; Lei, X.; Wang, H.

2015-12-01

This paper develops an optimal reservoir Refill Hedging Rule (RHR) for combined water supply and flood operation using mathematical analysis. A two-stage model is developed to formulate the trade-off between operations for conservation benefit and flood damage in the reservoir refill season. Based on the probability distribution of the maximum refill water availability at the end of the second stage, three zones are characterized according to the relationship among storage capacity, expected storage buffer (ESB), and maximum safety excess discharge (MSED). The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the model show that the optimality of the refill operation involves making the expected marginal loss of conservation benefit from unfilling (i.e., ending storage of refill period less than storage capacity) as nearly equal to the expected marginal flood damage from levee overtopping downstream as possible while maintaining all constraints. This principle follows and combines the hedging rules for water supply and flood management. A RHR curve is drawn analogously to water supply hedging and flood hedging rules, showing the trade-off between the two objectives. The release decision result has a linear relationship with the current water availability, implying the linearity of RHR for a wide range of water conservation functions (linear, concave, or convex). A demonstration case shows the impacts of factors. Larger downstream flood conveyance capacity and empty reservoir capacity allow a smaller current release and more water can be conserved. Economic indicators of conservation benefit and flood damage compete with each other on release, the greater economic importance of flood damage is, the more water should be released in the current stage, and vice versa. Below a critical value, improving forecasts yields less water release, but an opposing effect occurs beyond this critical value. Finally, the Danjiangkou Reservoir case study shows that the RHR together with a rolling horizon decision approach can lead to a gradual dynamic refilling, indicating its potential for practical use.

Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

PubMed

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-06-01

In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

Benchmarking wastewater treatment plants under an eco-efficiency perspective.

PubMed

Lorenzo-Toja, Yago; Vázquez-Rowe, Ian; Amores, María José; Termes-Rifé, Montserrat; Marín-Navarro, Desirée; Moreira, María Teresa; Feijoo, Gumersindo

2016-10-01

The new ISO 14045 framework is expected to slowly start shifting the definition of eco-efficiency toward a life-cycle perspective, using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as the environmental impact assessment method together with a system value assessment method for the economic analysis. In the present study, a set of 22 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Spain were analyzed on the basis of eco-efficiency criteria, using LCA and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) as a system value assessment method. The study is intended to be useful to decision-makers in the wastewater treatment sector, since the combined method provides an alternative scheme for analyzing the relationship between environmental impacts and costs. Two midpoint impact categories, global warming and eutrophication potential, as well as an endpoint single score indicator were used for the environmental assessment, while LCC was used for value assessment. Results demonstrated that substantial differences can be observed between different WWTPs depending on a wide range of factors such as plant configuration, plant size or even legal discharge limits. Based on these results the benchmarking of wastewater treatment facilities was performed by creating a specific classification and certification scheme. The proposed eco-label for the WWTPs rating is based on the integration of the three environmental indicators and an economic indicator calculated within the study under the eco-efficiency new framework. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The preference of probability over negative values in action selection.

PubMed

Neyedli, Heather F; Welsh, Timothy N

2015-01-01

It has previously been found that when participants are presented with a pair of motor prospects, they can select the prospect with the largest maximum expected gain (MEG). Many of those decisions, however, were trivial because of large differences in MEG between the prospects. The purpose of the present study was to explore participants' preferences when making non-trivial decisions between two motor prospects. Participants were presented with pairs of prospects that: 1) differed in MEG with either only the values or only the probabilities differing between the prospects; and 2) had similar MEG with one prospect having a larger probability of hitting the target and a higher penalty value and the other prospect a smaller probability of hitting the target but a lower penalty value. In different experiments, participants either had 400 ms or 2000 ms to decide between the prospects. It was found that participants chose the configuration with the larger MEG more often when the probability varied between prospects than when the value varied. In pairs with similar MEGs, participants preferred a larger probability of hitting the target over a smaller penalty value. These results indicate that participants prefer probability information over negative value information in a motor selection task.

Effects of Client Expectation for Counseling Success, Client-Counselor Worldview Match, and Client Adherence to Asian and European American Cultural Values on Counseling Process with Asian Americans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Bryan S. K.; Ng, Gladys F.; Ahn, Annie J.

2005-01-01

After assessing their expectation for counseling success, adherence to Asian cultural values, and adherence to European American cultural values, 88 Asian American volunteer clients with personal concerns engaged in single-session counseling with 1 of 11 female counselors who either matched or mismatched the client's worldview. Clients in the…

Addressing overuse in emergency medicine: evidence of a role for greater patient engagement.

PubMed

Newton, Erika H

2017-12-01

Overuse of health care refers to tests, treatments, and even health care settings when used in circumstances where they are unlikely to help. Overuse is not only wasteful, it threatens patient safety by exposing patients to a greater chance of harm than benefit. It is a widespread problem and has proved resistant to change. Overuse of diagnostic testing is a particular problem in emergency medicine. Emergency physicians cite fear of missing a diagnosis, fear of law suits, and perceived patient expectations as key contributors. However, physicians' assumptions about what patients expect are often wrong, and overlook two of patients' most consistently voiced priorities: communication and empathy. Evidence indicates that patients who are more fully informed and engaged in their care often opt for less aggressive approaches. Shared decision making refers to (1) providing balanced information so that patients understand their options and the trade-offs involved, (2) encouraging them to voice their preferences and values, and (3) engaging them-to the extent appropriate or desired-in decision making. By adopting this approach to discretionary decision making, physicians are better positioned to address patients' concerns without the use of tests and treatments patients neither need nor value.

Economic feasibility of the sugar beet-to-ethylene value chain.

PubMed

Althoff, Jeroen; Biesheuvel, Kees; De Kok, Ad; Pelt, Henk; Ruitenbeek, Matthijs; Spork, Ger; Tange, Jan; Wevers, Ronald

2013-09-01

As part of a long-term strategy toward renewable feedstock, a feasibility study into options for the production of bioethylene by integrating the sugar beet-to-ethanol-to-ethylene value chain. Seven business cases were studied and tested for actual economic feasibility of alternative sugar-to-ethanol-to-ethylene routes in comparison to fossil-fuel alternatives. An elaborate model was developed to assess the relevant operational and financial aspects of each business case. The calculations indicate that bioethylene from sugar beet is not commercially viable under current market conditions. In light of expected global energy and feedstock prices it is also reasonable to expect that this will not change in the near future. To consider biorenewable sources as starting material, they need to be low in cost (compared to sugar beets) and also require less capital and energy-intensive methods for the conversion to chemicals. In general, European sugar prices will be too high for many chemical applications. Future efforts for in sugar-to-chemicals routes should, therefore, focus on integrated process routes and process intensification and/or on products that contain a significant part of the original carbohydrate backbone. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Addressing overuse in emergency medicine: evidence of a role for greater patient engagement

PubMed Central

Newton, Erika H.

2017-01-01

Overuse of health care refers to tests, treatments, and even health care settings when used in circumstances where they are unlikely to help. Overuse is not only wasteful, it threatens patient safety by exposing patients to a greater chance of harm than benefit. It is a widespread problem and has proved resistant to change. Overuse of diagnostic testing is a particular problem in emergency medicine. Emergency physicians cite fear of missing a diagnosis, fear of law suits, and perceived patient expectations as key contributors. However, physicians’ assumptions about what patients expect are often wrong, and overlook two of patients’ most consistently voiced priorities: communication and empathy. Evidence indicates that patients who are more fully informed and engaged in their care often opt for less aggressive approaches. Shared decision making refers to (1) providing balanced information so that patients understand their options and the trade-offs involved, (2) encouraging them to voice their preferences and values, and (3) engaging them—to the extent appropriate or desired—in decision making. By adopting this approach to discretionary decision making, physicians are better positioned to address patients’ concerns without the use of tests and treatments patients neither need nor value. PMID:29306268

Effort Deficits and Depression: The Influence of Anhedonic Depressive Symptoms on Cardiac Autonomic Activity During a Mental Challenge

PubMed Central

Silvia, Paul J.; Nusbaum, Emily C.; Eddington, Kari M.; Beaty, Roger E.; Kwapil, Thomas R.

2014-01-01

Motivational approaches to depression emphasize the role of dysfunctional motivational dynamics, particularly diminished reward and incentive processes associated with anhedonia. A study examined how anhedonic depressive symptoms, measured continuously across a wide range of severity, influenced the physiological mobilization of effort during a cognitive task. Using motivational intensity theory as a guide, we expected that the diminished incentive value associated with anhedonic depressive symptoms would reduce effort during a “do your best” challenge (also known as an unfixed or self-paced challenge), in which effort is a function of the value of achieving the task’s goal. Using impedance cardiography, two cardiac autonomic responses were assessed: pre-ejection period (PEP), a measure of sympathetic activity and our primary measure of interest, and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), a measure of parasympathetic activity. As expected, PEP slowed from baseline to task as anhedonic depressive symptoms increased (as measured with the DASS Depression scale), indicating diminished effort-related sympathetic activity. No significant effects appeared for RSA. The findings support motivational intensity theory as a translational model of effort processes in depression and clarify some inconsistent effects of depressive symptoms on effort-related physiology found in past work. PMID:25431505

Revision Arthroscopic Repair Versus Latarjet Procedure in Patients With Recurrent Instability After Initial Repair Attempt: A Cost-Effectiveness Model.

PubMed

Makhni, Eric C; Lamba, Nayan; Swart, Eric; Steinhaus, Michael E; Ahmad, Christopher S; Romeo, Anthony A; Verma, Nikhil N

2016-09-01

To compare the cost-effectiveness of arthroscopic revision instability repair and Latarjet procedure in treating patients with recurrent instability after initial arthroscopic instability repair. An expected-value decision analysis of revision arthroscopic instability repair compared with Latarjet procedure for recurrent instability followed by failed repair attempt was modeled. Inputs regarding procedure cost, clinical outcomes, and health utilities were derived from the literature. Compared with revision arthroscopic repair, Latarjet was less expensive ($13,672 v $15,287) with improved clinical outcomes (43.78 v 36.76 quality-adjusted life-years). Both arthroscopic repair and Latarjet were cost-effective compared with nonoperative treatment (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 3,082 and 1,141, respectively). Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that under scenarios of high rates of stability postoperatively, along with improved clinical outcome scores, revision arthroscopic repair becomes increasingly cost-effective. Latarjet procedure for failed instability repair is a cost-effective treatment option, with lower costs and improved clinical outcomes compared with revision arthroscopic instability repair. However, surgeons must still incorporate clinical judgment into treatment algorithm formation. Level IV, expected value decision analysis. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Streamflow properties from time series of surface velocity and stage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, W.J.; Keller, W.C.; Hayes, K.; Spicer, K.

2005-01-01

Time series of surface velocity and stage have been collected simultaneously. Surface velocity was measured using an array of newly developed continuous-wave microwave sensors. Stage was obtained from the standard U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measurements. The depth of the river was measured several times during our experiments using sounding weights. The data clearly showed that the point of zero flow was not the bottom at the measurement site, indicating that a downstream control exists. Fathometer measurements confirmed this finding. A model of the surface velocity expected at a site having a downstream control was developed. The model showed that the standard form for the friction velocity does not apply to sites where a downstream control exists. This model fit our measured surface velocity versus stage plots very well with reasonable values of the parameters. Discharges computed using the surface velocities and measured depths matched the USGS rating curve for the site. Values of depth-weighted mean velocities derived from our data did not agree with those expected from Manning's equation due to the downstream control. These results suggest that if real-time surface velocities were available at a gauging station, unstable stream beds could be monitored. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering ?? ASCE.

Association of spectral development patterns with development stages of corn

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crist, E. P. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Association is made between the development stages of corn as defined by Hanway and the temporal-spectral development pattern of corn in a transformed data space derived from Landsat-MSS band reflectance values, using field-collected reflectance and associated data. Results indicate that the spectral vegetation index used (a reflectance equivalent of Tasseled Cap Greenness) reaches a maximum well before the stage at which corn is expected to achieve its peak leaf area index. Possible physiological and canopy geometry related causes for this and other results are presented.

Method for Real-Time Model Based Structural Anomaly Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urnes, James M., Sr. (Inventor); Smith, Timothy A. (Inventor); Reichenbach, Eric Y. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A system and methods for real-time model based vehicle structural anomaly detection are disclosed. A real-time measurement corresponding to a location on a vehicle structure during an operation of the vehicle is received, and the real-time measurement is compared to expected operation data for the location to provide a modeling error signal. A statistical significance of the modeling error signal to provide an error significance is calculated, and a persistence of the error significance is determined. A structural anomaly is indicated, if the persistence exceeds a persistence threshold value.

Water-refined solution structure of the human Grb7-SH2 domain in complex with the erbB2 receptor peptide pY1139.

PubMed

Pias, Sally C; Johnson, Dennis L; Smith, David E; Lyons, Barbara A

2012-08-01

We report a refinement in implicit water of the previously published solution structure of the Grb7-SH2 domain bound to the erbB2 receptor peptide pY1139. Structure quality measures indicate substantial improvement, with residues in the most favored regions of the Ramachandran plot increasing by 14 % and with WHAT IF statistics (Vriend, G. J. Mol. Graph., 1990, 8(1), 52-56) falling closer to expected values for well-refined structures.

Prospecting by sampling and analysis of airborne particulates and gases

DOEpatents

Sehmel, G.A.

1984-05-01

A method is claimed for prospecting by sampling airborne particulates or gases at a ground position and recording wind direction values at the time of sampling. The samples are subsequently analyzed to determine the concentrations of a desired material or the ratios of the desired material to other identifiable materials in the collected samples. By comparing the measured concentrations or ratios to expected background data in the vicinity sampled, one can select recorded wind directions indicative of the upwind position of the land-based source of the desired material.

Using a relational database to improve mortality and length of stay for a department of surgery: a comparative review of 5200 patients.

PubMed

Ang, Darwin N; Behrns, Kevin E

2013-07-01

The emphasis on high-quality care has spawned the development of quality programs, most of which focus on broad outcome measures across a diverse group of providers. Our aim was to investigate the clinical outcomes for a department of surgery with multiple service lines of patient care using a relational database. Mortality, length of stay (LOS), patient safety indicators (PSIs), and hospital-acquired conditions were examined for each service line. Expected values for mortality and LOS were derived from University HealthSystem Consortium regression models, whereas expected values for PSIs were derived from Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality regression models. Overall, 5200 patients were evaluated from the months of January through May of both 2011 (n = 2550) and 2012 (n = 2650). The overall observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio of mortality improved from 1.03 to 0.92. The overall O/E ratio for LOS improved from 0.92 to 0.89. PSIs that predicted mortality included postoperative sepsis (O/E:1.89), postoperative respiratory failure (O/E:1.83), postoperative metabolic derangement (O/E:1.81), and postoperative deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolus (O/E:1.8). Mortality and LOS can be improved by using a relational database with outcomes reported to specific service lines. Service line quality can be influenced by distribution of frequent reports, group meetings, and service line-directed interventions.

Ecological neighborhoods as a framework for umbrella species selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuber, Erica F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2018-01-01

Umbrella species are typically chosen because they are expected to confer protection for other species assumed to have similar ecological requirements. Despite its popularity and substantial history, the value of the umbrella species concept has come into question because umbrella species chosen using heuristic methods, such as body or home range size, are not acting as adequate proxies for the metrics of interest: species richness or population abundance in a multi-species community for which protection is sought. How species associate with habitat across ecological scales has important implications for understanding population size and species richness, and therefore may be a better proxy for choosing an umbrella species. We determined the spatial scales of ecological neighborhoods important for predicting abundance of 8 potential umbrella species breeding in Nebraska using Bayesian latent indicator scale selection in N-mixture models accounting for imperfect detection. We compare the conservation value measured as collective avian abundance under different umbrella species selected following commonly used criteria and selected based on identifying spatial land cover characteristics within ecological neighborhoods that maximize collective abundance. Using traditional criteria to select an umbrella species resulted in sub-maximal expected collective abundance in 86% of cases compared to selecting an umbrella species based on land cover characteristics that maximized collective abundance directly. We conclude that directly assessing the expected quantitative outcomes, rather than ecological proxies, is likely the most efficient method to maximize the potential for conservation success under the umbrella species concept.

Thermal Resilience of Feeding Kinematics May Contribute to the Spread of Invasive Fishes in Light of Climate Change.

PubMed

Turingan, Ralph; Sloan, Tyler

2016-11-25

As a consequence of global warming, tropical invasive species are expected to expand their range pole-ward, extending their negative impacts to previously undisturbed, high-latitude ecosystems. Investigating the physiological responses of invasive species to environmental temperature is important because the coupled effects of climate change and species invasion on ecosystems could be more alarming than the effects of each phenomenon independently. Especially in poikilotherms, the rate of motion in muscle-driven biomechanical systems is expected to double for every 10 °C increase in temperature. In this study, we address the question, "How does temperature affect the speed of jaw-movement during prey-capture in invasive fishes?" Kinematic analysis of invasive-fish prey-capture behavior revealed that (1) movement velocities of key components of the feeding mechanism did not double as water temperature increased from 20 °C to 30 °C; and (2) thermal sensitivity (Q10 values) for gape, hyoid, lower-jaw rotation, and cranial rotation velocities at 20 °C and 30 °C ranged from 0.56 to 1.44 in all three species. With the exception of lower-jaw rotation, Q10 values were significantly less than the expected Q10 = 2.0, indicating that feeding kinematics remains consistent despite the change in environmental temperature. It is conceivable that the ability to maintain peak performance at different temperatures helps facilitate the spread of invasive fishes globally.

Thermal Resilience of Feeding Kinematics May Contribute to the Spread of Invasive Fishes in Light of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Turingan, Ralph; Sloan, Tyler

2016-01-01

As a consequence of global warming, tropical invasive species are expected to expand their range pole-ward, extending their negative impacts to previously undisturbed, high-latitude ecosystems. Investigating the physiological responses of invasive species to environmental temperature is important because the coupled effects of climate change and species invasion on ecosystems could be more alarming than the effects of each phenomenon independently. Especially in poikilotherms, the rate of motion in muscle-driven biomechanical systems is expected to double for every 10 °C increase in temperature. In this study, we address the question, “How does temperature affect the speed of jaw-movement during prey-capture in invasive fishes?” Kinematic analysis of invasive-fish prey-capture behavior revealed that (1) movement velocities of key components of the feeding mechanism did not double as water temperature increased from 20 °C to 30 °C; and (2) thermal sensitivity (Q10 values) for gape, hyoid, lower-jaw rotation, and cranial rotation velocities at 20 °C and 30 °C ranged from 0.56 to 1.44 in all three species. With the exception of lower-jaw rotation, Q10 values were significantly less than the expected Q10 = 2.0, indicating that feeding kinematics remains consistent despite the change in environmental temperature. It is conceivable that the ability to maintain peak performance at different temperatures helps facilitate the spread of invasive fishes globally. PMID:27897997

Reliability Engineering Handbook

DTIC Science & Technology

1964-06-01

Figure 6-18(a). The Chi-Square (X 2) Test compares the observed values against the Expected Am = 1 A = &. 0002 ) expected values in the tables. 5C 5...9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441 1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 . 9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545 1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608

Learner-Valued Interactions: Research into Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ley, Kathryn; Gannon-Cook, Ruth

2014-01-01

Online learners provide feedback that does not always match with the expectations of what university administration would expect from their feedback. Learners do not value all instructional features and conditions equally, nor do they view many of the instructional and technology features as being necessarily helpful. This paper presents research…

Career Expectations and Perceptions of Part-Time MBA Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fish, Lynn A.; Fish, Lauren A.

2010-01-01

In the U.S., part-time MBA students regard work/life balance as the critical factor that drives career expectations and perceptions. Job aspects and benefits/compensation closely follow in importance, while employee relations are valued less. Within work/life balance, students value job location, travel time, and telecommuting. Promotional…

Job Preferences in the Anticipatory Socialization Phase: A Comparison of Two Matching Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moss, Mira K.; Frieze, Irene Hanson

1993-01-01

Responses from 86 business administration graduate students tested (1) a model matching self-concept to development of job preferences and (2) an expectancy-value model. Both models significantly predicted job preferences; a higher proportion of variance was explained by the expectancy-value model. (SK)

Fourth Graders' Motivation in an Elementary Physical Education Running Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron E.; Bruene, April

2004-01-01

In this study we examined students' motivation in an elementary physical education running program using achievement goal theory and an expectancy-value model of achievement choice as theoretical frameworks. Fourth graders (N = 119) completed questionnaires assessing their achievement goals, expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and…

Charting the Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model from Mothers' Beliefs in Childhood to Youths' Activities in Adolescence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpkins, Sandra D.; Fredricks, Jennifer A.; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.

2012-01-01

The Eccles' expectancy-value model posits that a cascade of mechanisms explain associations between parents' beliefs and youths' achievement-related behaviors. Specifically, parents' beliefs predict parents' behaviors; in turn, parents' behaviors predict youths' motivational beliefs, and youths' motivational beliefs predict their behaviors. This…

Exploring Adolescent Motivations for Pursuing Maths-Related Careers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watt, Helen M. G.

2005-01-01

Adolescents from grade 9 in Sydney Australia (N = 60) were interviewed regarding why they would or would not consider pursuing maths-related careers. Open-ended interview data explored the comprehensiveness of explanations within the Expectancy-Value framework. The Expectancy-Value model is the major motivational framework for explaining students'…

Perturbative test of exact vacuum expectation values of local fields in affine Toda theories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, Changrim; Baseilhac, P.; Kim, Chanju

Vacuum expectation values of local fields for all dual pairs of nonsimply laced affine Toda field theories recently proposed are checked against perturbative analysis. The computations based on Feynman diagram expansion are performed up to the two-loop level. We obtain, good agreement.

Negotiating Academic Values, Professorial Responsibilities and Expectations for Accountability in Today's University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, Luanna H.

2012-01-01

This paper argues that it is reasonable to expect the professoriate, including full professors, to balance traditional academic values with external demands for accountability. Today's universities are characterised by increasing diversity, wider access to higher education, decreasing funding and greater oversight through quality assurance:…

Parental and Family Factors as Predictors of Threat Bias in Anxious Youth

PubMed Central

Blossom, Jennifer B.; Ginsburg, Golda S.; Birmaher, Boris; Walkup, John T.; Kendall, Philip C.; Keeton, Courtney P.; Langley, Audra K.; Piacentini, John C.; Sakolsky, Dara; Albano, Anne Marie

2014-01-01

The present study examined the relative predictive value of parental anxiety, parents' expectation of child threat bias, and family dysfunction on child's threat bias in a clinical sample of anxious youth. Participants (N = 488) were part of the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multi-modal study (CAMS), ages 7–17 years (M = 10.69; SD = 2.80). Children met diagnostic criteria for generalized anxiety disorder, separation anxiety and/or social phobia. Children and caregivers completed questionnaires assessing child threat bias, child anxiety, parent anxiety and family functioning. Child age, child anxiety, parental anxiety, parents' expectation of child's threat bias and child-reported family dysfunction were significantly associated with child threat bias. Controlling for child's age and anxiety, regression analyses indicated that parents' expectation of child's threat bias and child-reported family dysfunction were significant positive predictors of child's self-reported threat bias. Findings build on previous literature by clarifying parent and family factors that appear to play a role in the development or maintenance of threat bias and may inform etiological models of child anxiety. PMID:25328258

Optimization of Multiple Related Negotiation through Multi-Negotiation Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Miao, Chunyan; Shen, Zhiqi

In this paper, a Multi-Negotiation Network (MNN) and a Multi- Negotiation Influence Diagram (MNID) are proposed to optimally handle Multiple Related Negotiations (MRN) in a multi-agent system. Most popular, state-of-the-art approaches perform MRN sequentially. However, a sequential procedure may not optimally execute MRN in terms of maximizing the global outcome, and may even lead to unnecessary losses in some situations. The motivation of this research is to use a MNN to handle MRN concurrently so as to maximize the expected utility of MRN. Firstly, both the joint success rate and the joint utility by considering all related negotiations are dynamically calculated based on a MNN. Secondly, by employing a MNID, an agent's possible decision on each related negotiation is reflected by the value of expected utility. Lastly, through comparing expected utilities between all possible policies to conduct MRN, an optimal policy is generated to optimize the global outcome of MRN. The experimental results indicate that the proposed approach can improve the global outcome of MRN in a successful end scenario, and avoid unnecessary losses in an unsuccessful end scenario.

Students' motivational beliefs in science learning, school motivational contexts, and science achievement in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cheng-Lung; Liou, Pey-Yan

2017-05-01

Taiwanese students are featured as having high academic achievement but low motivational beliefs according to the serial results of the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Moreover, given that the role of context has become more important in the development of academic motivation theory, this study aimed to examine the relationship between motivational beliefs and science achievement at both the student and school levels. Based on the Expectancy-Value Theory, the three motivational beliefs, namely self-concept, intrinsic value, and utility value, were the focuses of this study. The two-level hierarchical linear model was used to analyse the Taiwanese TIMSS 2011 eighth-grade student data. The results indicated that each motivational belief had a positive predictive effect on science achievement. Additionally, a positive school contextual effect of self-concept on science achievement was identified. Furthermore, school-mean utility value had a negative moderating effect on the relationship between utility value and science achievement. In conclusion, this study sheds light on the functioning of motivational beliefs in science learning among Taiwanese adolescents with consideration of the school motivational contexts.

Urban nuisance flooding and topographic wetness index: does excess runoff collect where we think it should in urban landscapes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, C.; McPhillips, L. E.

2017-12-01

Urban landscapes translate water in a variety of ways that diverge from more natural systems. In particular, due to the presence of impervious surfaces and alteration of topography, they are prone to nuisance flooding when it rains. To track the locations of areas of minor flooding and other complaints, many cities are now facilitating nuisance reports from residents via information technology services like 311. These reports provide useful information for tracking where in the landscape water may collect during rain events; we sought to use this information to test potential geospatial indices for predictively identifying locations prone to nuisance flooding in urban areas. In this study, we utilized a tool commonly applied in natural systems, topographic indices, to create spatially contiguous estimates of topographic wetness index (TWI), a value that can be used to identify areas within a watershed expected to be preferentially wetter or drier based on topographic slope and surface flow pathways. For several watersheds across Baltimore and New York City (USA), we tested three different resolutions of LiDAR-derived topography and two different methods of flow routing to calculate continuous distributions of TWI. When comparing these values to nuisance flooding locations, we found that distributions of TWI values within a radius of reported nuisance floods were higher, on average, than the distribution of TWI values across each watershed. We also employed a spatial Monte Carlo sampling strategy, randomly selecting grid cells within each watershed to determine if these randomly selected grid cells have preferentially lower TWI values than those near nuisance flooding locations. Overall, we demonstrate that topographic indices may be useful predictors of localized flooding within urban environments.

Do they see it coming? Using expectancy violation to gauge the success of pedagogical reforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaffney, Jon D. H.; Gaffney, Amy L. Housley; Beichner, Robert J.

2010-06-01

We present a measure, which we have named the Pedagogical Expectancy Violation Assessment (PEVA), for instructors to gauge one aspect of the success of their implementation of pedagogical reform by assessing the expectations and experiences of the students in the classroom. We implemented the PEVA in four physics classes at three institutions that used the Student Centered Active Learning Environment for Undergraduate Programs (SCALE-UP) pedagogy in order to gain an understanding of students’ initial expectations, how those expectations are shifted during early classes, and what students report experiencing at the end of the semester. The results indicate appropriate shifts in student expectations during orientation, but some gaps between student expectations and experiences persisted. Students rated the communication aspects of SCALE-UP as desirable and indicated an overall positive affect toward the pedagogy, indicating that violations of their initial expectations were largely positive. By studying the patterns of the shifts in students’ expectations and gaps between those expectations and their experiences, we gain insight for improving both the orientation of the students and the implementation of the course.

Breeding value accuracy estimates for growth traits using random regression and multi-trait models in Nelore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Baldi, F; Mercadante, M E Z; Lobo, R B; Pereira, R J; Albuquerque, L G

2011-06-28

We quantified the potential increase in accuracy of expected breeding value for weights of Nelore cattle, from birth to mature age, using multi-trait and random regression models on Legendre polynomials and B-spline functions. A total of 87,712 weight records from 8144 females were used, recorded every three months from birth to mature age from the Nelore Brazil Program. For random regression analyses, all female weight records from birth to eight years of age (data set I) were considered. From this general data set, a subset was created (data set II), which included only nine weight records: at birth, weaning, 365 and 550 days of age, and 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years of age. Data set II was analyzed using random regression and multi-trait models. The model of analysis included the contemporary group as fixed effects and age of dam as a linear and quadratic covariable. In the random regression analyses, average growth trends were modeled using a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of age. Residual variances were modeled by a step function with five classes. Legendre polynomials of fourth and sixth order were utilized to model the direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, while third-order Legendre polynomials were considered for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. Quadratic polynomials were applied to model all random effects in random regression models on B-spline functions. Direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using three segments or five coefficients, and genetic maternal and maternal permanent environmental effects were modeled with one segment or three coefficients in the random regression models on B-spline functions. For both data sets (I and II), animals ranked differently according to expected breeding value obtained by random regression or multi-trait models. With random regression models, the highest gains in accuracy were obtained at ages with a low number of weight records. The results indicate that random regression models provide more accurate expected breeding values than the traditionally finite multi-trait models. Thus, higher genetic responses are expected for beef cattle growth traits by replacing a multi-trait model with random regression models for genetic evaluation. B-spline functions could be applied as an alternative to Legendre polynomials to model covariance functions for weights from birth to mature age.

A model for plant lighting system selection.

PubMed

Ciolkosz, D E; Albright, L D; Sager, J C; Langhans, R W

2002-01-01

A decision model is presented that compares lighting systems for a plant growth scenario and chooses the most appropriate system from a given set of possible choices. The model utilizes a Multiple Attribute Utility Theory approach, and incorporates expert input and performance simulations to calculate a utility value for each lighting system being considered. The system with the highest utility is deemed the most appropriate system. The model was applied to a greenhouse scenario, and analyses were conducted to test the model's output for validity. Parameter variation indicates that the model performed as expected. Analysis of model output indicates that differences in utility among the candidate lighting systems were sufficiently large to give confidence that the model's order of selection was valid.

Value and probability coding in a feedback-based learning task utilizing food rewards.

PubMed

Tricomi, Elizabeth; Lempert, Karolina M

2015-01-01

For the consequences of our actions to guide behavior, the brain must represent different types of outcome-related information. For example, an outcome can be construed as negative because an expected reward was not delivered or because an outcome of low value was delivered. Thus behavioral consequences can differ in terms of the information they provide about outcome probability and value. We investigated the role of the striatum in processing probability-based and value-based negative feedback by training participants to associate cues with food rewards and then employing a selective satiety procedure to devalue one food outcome. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined brain activity related to receipt of expected rewards, receipt of devalued outcomes, omission of expected rewards, omission of devalued outcomes, and expected omissions of an outcome. Nucleus accumbens activation was greater for rewarding outcomes than devalued outcomes, but activity in this region did not correlate with the probability of reward receipt. Activation of the right caudate and putamen, however, was largest in response to rewarding outcomes relative to expected omissions of reward. The dorsal striatum (caudate and putamen) at the time of feedback also showed a parametric increase correlating with the trialwise probability of reward receipt. Our results suggest that the ventral striatum is sensitive to the motivational relevance, or subjective value, of the outcome, while the dorsal striatum codes for a more complex signal that incorporates reward probability. Value and probability information may be integrated in the dorsal striatum, to facilitate action planning and allocation of effort. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Linear canonical transformations of coherent and squeezed states in the Wigner phase space. II - Quantitative analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, D.; Kim, Y. S.; Noz, Marilyn E.

1989-01-01

It is possible to calculate expectation values and transition probabilities from the Wigner phase-space distribution function. Based on the canonical transformation properties of the Wigner function, an algorithm is developed for calculating these quantities in quantum optics for coherent and squeezed states. It is shown that the expectation value of a dynamical variable can be written in terms of its vacuum expectation value of the canonically transformed variable. Parallel-axis theorems are established for the photon number and its variant. It is also shown that the transition probability between two squeezed states can be reduced to that of the transition from one squeezed state to vacuum.

Extended space expectation values in quantum dynamical system evolutions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demiralp, Metin

2014-10-06

The time variant power series expansion for the expectation value of a given quantum dynamical operator is well-known and well-investigated issue in quantum dynamics. However, depending on the operator and Hamiltonian singularities this expansion either may not exist or may not converge for all time instances except the beginning of the evolution. This work focuses on this issue and seeks certain cures for the negativities. We work in the extended space obtained by adding all images of the initial wave function under the system Hamiltonian’s positive integer powers. This requires the introduction of certain appropriately defined weight operators. The resultingmore » better convergence in the temporal power series urges us to call the new defined entities “extended space expectation values” even though they are constructed over certain weight operators and are somehow pseudo expectation values.« less

Expectancy-related changes in firing of dopamine neurons depend on orbitofrontal cortex.

PubMed

Takahashi, Yuji K; Roesch, Matthew R; Wilson, Robert C; Toreson, Kathy; O'Donnell, Patricio; Niv, Yael; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

2011-10-30

The orbitofrontal cortex has been hypothesized to carry information regarding the value of expected rewards. Such information is essential for associative learning, which relies on comparisons between expected and obtained reward for generating instructive error signals. These error signals are thought to be conveyed by dopamine neurons. To test whether orbitofrontal cortex contributes to these error signals, we recorded from dopamine neurons in orbitofrontal-lesioned rats performing a reward learning task. Lesions caused marked changes in dopaminergic error signaling. However, the effect of lesions was not consistent with a simple loss of information regarding expected value. Instead, without orbitofrontal input, dopaminergic error signals failed to reflect internal information about the impending response that distinguished externally similar states leading to differently valued future rewards. These results are consistent with current conceptualizations of orbitofrontal cortex as supporting model-based behavior and suggest an unexpected role for this information in dopaminergic error signaling.

Mathematical modelling of risk reduction in reinsurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balashov, R. B.; Kryanev, A. V.; Sliva, D. E.

2017-01-01

The paper presents a mathematical model of efficient portfolio formation in the reinsurance markets. The presented approach provides the optimal ratio between the expected value of return and the risk of yield values below a certain level. The uncertainty in the return values is conditioned by use of expert evaluations and preliminary calculations, which result in expected return values and the corresponding risk levels. The proposed method allows for implementation of computationally simple schemes and algorithms for numerical calculation of the numerical structure of the efficient portfolios of reinsurance contracts of a given insurance company.

Freshwater Mussel Shell δ13C Values as a Proxy for δ13CDIC in a Polluted, Temperate River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graniero, L. E.; Gillikin, D. P.; Surge, D. M.

2017-12-01

Freshwater mussel shell δ13C values have been examined as an indicator of ambient δ13C composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in temperate rivers. However, shell δ13C values may be obscured by the assimilation of respired, metabolic carbon (CM) derived from the organism's diet. Water δ18O and δ13CDIC values were collected fortnightly from August 2015 through July 2017 from three sites (one agricultural, one downstream of a wastewater treatment plant, one urban) in the Neuse River, NC to test the reliability of Elliptio complanata shell δ13C values as a proxy for δ13CDIC values. Muscle, mantle, gill, and stomach δ13C values were analyzed to approximate the %CM incorporated into the shell. All tissue δ13C values were within 2‰ of each other, which equates to a ±1% difference in calculated %CM. As such, muscle tissue δ13C values will be used for calculating the %CM, because they have the slowest turnover rate of the tissues sampled. Water temperature and δ18O values were used to calculate predicted aragonite shell δ18O­ values (δ18O­ar) based on the aragonite-water fractionation relationship. To assign dates to each shell microsample, predicted δ18O­ar values were compared to high-resolution serially sampled shell values. Consistent with previous studies, E. complanata cease growth in winter when temperatures are below about 12ºC. Preliminary results indicate that during the growing season, shell δ13C values are lower than expected equilibrium values, reflecting the assimilation of 15% CM, on average. Shell δ13C values are not significantly different than δ13CDIC values, but do not capture the full range of δ13CDIC values during each growing season. Thus, δ13C values of E. complanata shells can be used to reliably reconstruct past δ13CDIC values within 2‰ of coeval values. Further research will investigate how differing land-use affects the relationship between shell δ13C, CM, and δ13CDIC values.

A cross-cultural perspective of parental influence on female adolescents' achievement beliefs and behaviors in sport and school domains.

PubMed

Bhalla, Jennifer A; Weiss, Maureen R

2010-12-01

Little is known about parental socialization processes for youth participants from different cultural backgrounds. The purpose of this study was to examine parental influence on self-perceptions, task values, and achievement behaviors among female adolescents from two cultures using Eccles' expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Twelve Anglo Canadian and nine East Indian female adolescents were interviewed about perceptions of parental influence on expectancy-value constructs for sport and academic domains. Inductive and deductive content analyses were performed to identify lower and higher order themes from interview responses. Similarities and differences in perceived parental influence emerged for girls of both cultural groups and in both domains. Our findings support links among expectancy-value constructs and highlight cultural variations in parental socialization of achievement cognitions and behaviors in multiple domains.

Fluctuations in the inflationary universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawking, S. W.; Moss, I. G.

1983-08-01

In the usual treatment of the inflationary universe, it is assumed that the expectation value of some component of the Higgs field develops a non-zero symmetry breaking value Φ0. However, in the models normally considered, the expectation value of Φ will be zero at all times because Φ and -Φ are equally probable. To overcome this difficulty, we calculate the effective action as a function of <Φ2> rather than <Φ>. This also solves the infra-red problem associated with a Coleman-Weinberg condition in de Sitter space. The expectation value of Φ2 grows linearly with time at first and then as (t2 - t-1). The irregularities in the resulting universe are smaller than those predicted by previous authors, though in the case of the standard SU(5) GUT they are still bigger than the limit set by the microwave background.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

Free-form Airfoil Shape Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Maximum Expected Value and Second-order Second-moment Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huyse, Luc; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Free-form shape optimization of airfoils poses unexpected difficulties. Practical experience has indicated that a deterministic optimization for discrete operating conditions can result in dramatically inferior performance when the actual operating conditions are different from the - somewhat arbitrary - design values used for the optimization. Extensions to multi-point optimization have proven unable to adequately remedy this problem of "localized optimization" near the sampled operating conditions. This paper presents an intrinsically statistical approach and demonstrates how the shortcomings of multi-point optimization with respect to "localized optimization" can be overcome. The practical examples also reveal how the relative likelihood of each of the operating conditions is automatically taken into consideration during the optimization process. This is a key advantage over the use of multipoint methods.

Trial-by-Trial Changes in a Priori Informational Value of External Cues and Subjective Expectancies in Human Auditory Attention

PubMed Central

Arjona, Antonio; Gómez, Carlos M.

2011-01-01

Background Preparatory activity based on a priori probabilities generated in previous trials and subjective expectancies would produce an attentional bias. However, preparation can be correct (valid) or incorrect (invalid) depending on the actual target stimulus. The alternation effect refers to the subjective expectancy that a target will not be repeated in the same position, causing RTs to increase if the target location is repeated. The present experiment, using the Posner's central cue paradigm, tries to demonstrate that not only the credibility of the cue, but also the expectancy about the next position of the target are changedin a trial by trial basis. Sequences of trials were analyzed. Results The results indicated an increase in RT benefits when sequences of two and three valid trials occurred. The analysis of errors indicated an increase in anticipatory behavior which grows as the number of valid trials is increased. On the other hand, there was also an RT benefit when a trial was preceded by trials in which the position of the target changed with respect to the current trial (alternation effect). Sequences of two alternations or two repetitions were faster than sequences of trials in which a pattern of repetition or alternation is broken. Conclusions Taken together, these results suggest that in Posner's central cue paradigm, and with regard to the anticipatory activity, the credibility of the external cue and of the endogenously anticipated patterns of target location are constantly updated. The results suggest that Bayesian rules are operating in the generation of anticipatory activity as a function of the previous trial's outcome, but also on biases or prior beliefs like the “gambler fallacy”. PMID:21698164

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.

1989-01-01

The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

Should policy-makers and managers trust PSI? An empirical validation study of five patient safety indicators in a national health service

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Patient Safety Indicators (PSI) are being modestly used in Spain, somewhat due to concerns on their empirical properties. This paper provides evidence by answering three questions: a) Are PSI differences across hospitals systematic -rather than random?; b) Do PSI measure differences among hospital-providers -as opposed to differences among patients?; and, c) Are measurements able to detect hospitals with a higher than "expected" number of cases? Methods An empirical validation study on administrative data was carried out. All 2005 and 2006 publicly-funded hospital discharges were used to retrieve eligible cases of five PSI: Death in low-mortality DRGs (MLM); decubitus ulcer (DU); postoperative pulmonary embolism or deep-vein thrombosis (PE-DVT); catheter-related infections (CRI), and postoperative sepsis (PS). Empirical Bayes statistic (EB) was used to estimate whether the variation was systematic; logistic-multilevel modelling determined what proportion of the variation was explained by the hospital; and, shrunken residuals, as provided by multilevel modelling, were plotted to flag hospitals performing worse than expected. Results Variation across hospitals was observed to be systematic in all indicators, with EB values ranging from 0.19 (CI95%:0.12 to 0.28) in PE-DVT to 0.34 (CI95%:0.25 to 0.45) in DU. A significant proportion of the variance was explained by the hospital, once patient case-mix was adjusted: from a 6% in MLM (CI95%:3% to 11%) to a 24% (CI95%:20% to 30%) in CRI. All PSI were able to flag hospitals with rates over the expected, although this capacity decreased when the largest hospitals were analysed. Conclusion Five PSI showed reasonable empirical properties to screen healthcare performance in Spanish hospitals, particularly in the largest ones. PMID:22369291

Impaired growth in the polychaete Armandia brevis exposed to tributyltin in sediment.

PubMed

Meador, J P; Rice, C A

2001-03-01

Juveniles of the opheliid polychaete, Armandia brevis, were exposed to sediment-associated tributyltin (TBT) for 42 days to evaluate toxicity and bioaccumulation. Growth in this species was inhibited in a dose-response fashion by increasing concentrations of TBT. Even though the biota-sediment accumulation factor (BSAF) for TBT declined for the higher sediment concentrations, the total butyltins in tissue increased over all sediment concentrations. At the highest sediment concentrations, polychaetes bioaccumulated less TBT than expected, which was most likely due to reduced uptake and continued metabolism of the parent compound. The less than expected BSAF values exhibited by animals at the exposure concentrations causing severe effects are an important finding for assessing responses in the field. It appears that severe biological effects can occur in long-term experiments without the expected high tissue concentrations; an observation likely explained by altered toxicokinetics. Analysis of variance determined the lowest observed effect concentration for growth to be 191 ng/g sediment dry wt. for 21 days of exposure and 101 ng/g sediment dry wt. at day 42, indicating that 21 days was insufficient for delineating the steady-state toxicity response. When based on regression analysis, the sediment concentration causing a 25% inhibition in growth at 42 days exposure was 93 ng/g dry wt. (total organic carbon = 0.58%). A dose-response association was also determined for polychaete net weight and TBT in tissue. The tissue residue associated with a 25% reduction in growth was 2834 ng/g dry wt. at day 42. A comparison of these results with previous work indicates that juveniles are approximately three times more sensitive than adults to TBT exposure. The sediment concentrations affecting growth in this species are commonly found in urban waterways indicating potentially severe impacts for this and other sensitive species.

Axisymmetric Eigenmodes of Spheroidal Pure Electron Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawai, Yosuke; Saitoh, Haruhiko; Yoshida, Zensho; Kiwamoto, Yasuhito

2010-11-01

The axisymmetric electrostatic eigenmodes of spheroidal pure electron plasmas have been studied experimentally. It is confirmed that the observed spheroidal plasma attains a theoretically expected equilibrium density distribution, with the exception of a low-density halo distribution surrounding the plasma. When the eigenmode frequency observed for the plasma is compared with the frequency predicted by the dispersion relation derived under ideal conditions wherein the temperature is zero and the boundary is located at an infinite distance from the plasma, it is observed that the absolute value of the observed frequency is systematically higher than the theoretical prediction. Experimental examinations and numerical calculations indicate that the upward shift of the eigenmode frequency cannot be accounted for solely by the finite temperature effect, but is significantly affected by image charges induced on the conducting boundary and the resulting distortion of the density profile from the theoretical expectation.

Motivations of Traditional and Nontraditional College Students: From Self-Determination and Attributions, to Expectancy and Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Marcus Lee; Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Clark, Lauren; Howell, Leah; Breen, Mishele

2016-01-01

We surveyed 139 (88 traditional, 51 nontraditional) students on various motivational measures of self-determination, attribution, and expectancy-value to (a) investigate motivational differences by student status and (b) identify the motivational variables that best predict academic achievement by student status. Results of a multivariate analysis…

Physical Activity and Fitness Knowledge Learning in Physical Education: Seeking a Common Ground

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Senlin; Chen, Ang; Sun, Haichun; Zhu, Xihe

2013-01-01

Motivation to learn is a disposition developed through exposure to learning opportunities. Guided by the expectancy-value theory of Eccles and Wigfield (1995), this study examined the extent to which expectancy belief and task value influenced elementary school students' physical activity and knowledge learning in physical education (PE).…

Values, Valences, and Course Enrollment: Testing the Role of Personal Values within an Expectancy-Valence Framework.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feather, N. T.

1988-01-01

The enrollment decisions of 444 (183 male, 260 female, and 1 unspecified) university students at Flinders University (South Australia) were investigated. Results shed light on gender differences in achievement patterns in mathematics and English and in relation to assumptions about relations between expectations and valences. (TJH)

Understanding Middle School Students' Motivation in Math Class: The Expectancy-Value Model Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurt, Eyup

2015-01-01

One of the most important variables affecting middle school students' mathematics performance is motivation. Motivation is closely related with expectancy belief regarding the task and value attached to the task. Identification of which one or ones of the factors constituting motivation is more closely related to mathematics performance may help…

Locus of Control and Academic Achievement: Integrating Social Learning Theory and Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Youse, Keith Edward

2012-01-01

The current study examines predictors of math achievement and college graduation by integrating social learning theory and expectancy-value theory. Data came from a nationally-representative longitudinal database tracking 12,144 students over twelve years from 8th grade forward. Models for math achievement and college graduation were tested…

Rural Adolescents' Reading Motivation, Achievement and Behavior across Transition to High School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cantrell, Susan Chambers; Rintamaa, Margaret; Anderman, Eric M.; Anderman, Lynley H.

2018-01-01

The authors examined 1,781 rural students' reading motivation and behavior across the transition from middle to high school. Using expectancy-value theory, they investigated how motivational variables predicted changes in reading behavior and achievement across the transition in terms of their expectancies, values, and out-of-school reading…

Social Influences, School Motivation and Gender Differences: An Application of the Expectancy-Value Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Weihua

2011-01-01

The present study examined the structural relations of social influences, task values, ability beliefs, educational expectation and academic engagement for both boys and girls. The structural equation modelling analyses provided nationally representative evidence of gender differences in: (1) the links from teacher-student relationship and peer…

Evaluating gambles using dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, O.; Gell-Mann, M.

2016-02-01

Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but their generality limits predictive power. Expectation value maximizers are defined as rational in economics, but expectation values are only meaningful in the presence of ensembles or in systems with ergodic properties, whereas decision-makers have no access to ensembles, and the variables representing wealth in the usual growth models do not have the relevant ergodic properties. Simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of utility and those of expectations, we propose to evaluate gambles by averaging wealth growth over time. No utility function is needed, but a dynamic must be specified to compute time averages. Linear and logarithmic "utility functions" appear as transformations that generate ergodic observables for purely additive and purely multiplicative dynamics, respectively. We highlight inconsistencies throughout the development of decision theory, whose correction clarifies that our perspective is legitimate. These invalidate a commonly cited argument for bounded utility functions.

Economics in “Global Health 2035”: a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates

PubMed Central

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-01-01

Background In “Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation,” The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well–being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low– and middle–income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. Methods The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. Findings We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Conclusion Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach. PMID:28400950

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canavan, G.H.

Attack allocation optimizations produce stability indices for unsymmetrical forces that indicate significant regions of both stability and instability and that have their minimum values roughly when the two sides have equal forces. This note derives combined stability indices for unsymmetrical offensive force configurations. The indices are based on optimal allocations of offensive missiles between vulnerable missiles and value based on the minimization of first strike cost, which is done analytically. Exchanges are modeled probabalistically and their results are converted into first and second strike costs through approximations to the damage to the value target sets held at risk. The stabilitymore » index is the product of the ratio of first to second strike costs seen by the two sides. Optimal allocations scale directly on the opponent`s vulnerable missiles, inversely on one`s own total weapons, and only logarithmically on the attacker`s damage preference, kill probability, and relative target set. The defender`s allocation scales in a similar manner on the attacker`s parameters. First and second strike magnitudes increase roughly linearly for the side with greater forces and decrease linearly for the side with fewer. Conversely, the first and second strike magnitudes decrease for the side with greater forces and increase for the side with fewer. These trends are derived and discussed analytically. The resulting stability indices exhibit a minimum where the two sides have roughly equal forces. If one side has much larger forces than the other, his costs drop to levels low enough that he is relatively insensitive to whether he strikes first or second. These calculations are performed with the analytic attack allocation appropriate for moderate forces, so some differences could be expected for the largest of the forces considered.« less

The Explorer XVI Micrometeoroid Satellite Description and Preliminary Results for the Period December 16, 1962 Through January 13, 1963

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, E. C., Jr.

1963-01-01

Explorer XVI (1962 Beta Chi l) data that have been analyzed for the period between December 16, 1962 (launch date), and January 13, 1963, indicate that the orbit achieved was close to the predicted orbit. Ten punctures of annealed 0.001-inch-thick beryllium-copper have been used to determine a puncture rate of 0.035 per square foot per day in this material. One puncture of a 0.002-inch-thick sample has also occurred in this period. A tentative evaluation of the puncture rate for the 0.001-inch beryllium-copper in terms of the rate for an equivalent thickness of aluminum has been attempted, and the result has been compared with two different puncture rate estimates. The three micrometeoroid impact detecting systems are operating. Counting rates for the high- and low-sensitivity systems were close to anticipated values near the end of one week. Two of the 0.001-inch-steel-covered grid detectors have been punctured, but none of the 0.003- or 0.006-inch-steel-covered grid detectors have indicated punctures. One of the cadmium sulfide cells indicates three punctures of the 0.00025-inch Mylar cover. None of the 0.002- or 0.003-inch-copper-wire cards have indicated a break in the period covered. Telemetry temperatures were initially higher than expected although they remained well within operating limits. Sensor temperatures have remained within the expected bounds.

Single-point nonlinearity indicators for the propagation of high-amplitude acoustic signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falco, Lauren E.

In the study of jet noise, prediction schemes and impact assessment models based on linear acoustic theory are not always sufficient to describe the character of the radiated noise. Typically, a spectral comparison method is employed to determine whether nonlinear effects are important. A power spectral density recorded at one propagation distance is extrapolated to a different distance using linear theory and compared with a measurement at the second distance. Discrepancies between the measured and extrapolated spectra are often attributed to nonlinearity. There are many other factors that can influence the outcome of this operation, though, including meteorological factors such as wind and temperature gradients, ground reflections, and uncertainty in the source location. Therefore, an improved method for assessing the importance of nonlinearity that requires only a single measurement is desirable. This work examines four candidate single-point nonlinearity indicators derived from the quantity Qp2 p found in the work of Morfey and Howell. These include: Qneg/Qpos, a ratio designed to test for conservation of energy; Qpos/p3rms , a bandlimited quantity that describes energy lost from a certain part of the spectrum due to nonlinearity; the spectral Gol'dberg number Gamma s, a dimensionless quantity whose sign indicates the direction of nonlinear energy transfer and whose magnitude can be used to compare the relative importance of linear and nonlinear effects; and the coherence indicator gamma Q, which also denotes the direction of nonlinear energy transfer and which is bounded between -1 and 1. Two sets of experimental data are presented. The first was recorded in a plane wave tube built of 2" inner-diameter PVC pipe with four evenly-spaced microphones flush-mounted with the inside wall of the tube. One or two compression drivers were used as the sound source, and an anechoic termination made of fiberglass served to minimize reflections from the far end of the tube. Both single-frequency signals and band-limited noise were used as sources, and waveforms were recorded at all four propagation distances. The second set of data was obtained at the model-scale jet facility at the University of Mississippi's National Center for Physical Acoustics. A computer controlled microphone boom was constructed to hold an array of six microphones. The array was rotated about the presumed location of the acoustic source center (4 jet diameters downstream of the nozzle exit), and two stationary microphones were mounted on the walls. Measurements were made for several jet conditions; data presented here represent Mach 0.85 and Mach 2 conditions. Application of the four candidate nonlinearity indicators to the experimental data reveals that each indicator has advantages and disadvantages. Qneg/Qpos does not detect the presence of shocks as postulated, but it does conform to expectations in the shock-free region and support the use of Qpos as an indicator. The main advantage of Qpos/p3rms is that it can be used for band-limited measurements. Increased indicator values are seen for signals with higher source frequencies and amplitudes that are expected to undergo stronger nonlinear evolution. However, no physical meaning can yet be derived from the numerical value of the indicator. The spectral Gol'dberg number Gammas is the most promising of the candidate quantities. It has the ability to indicate the direction of nonlinear energy transfer as well as provide a comparison between the strengths of linear and nonlinear effects. These attributes allow it to be used to qualitatively predict the evolution of a spectrum. The coherence indicator gammaQ also specifies the direction of nonlinear energy transfer, but its numerical value holds less meaning. However, it is bounded between -1 and 1, so values near zero denote very weak or no nonlinearity, and values near -1 or 1 denote strong nonlinearity. Further, because it is bounded, it does not become unstable for spectral components beneath the system noise floor.

A microsatellite study for determination of allelic variation of Kurdish population-Kurdistan region-Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murad, Media J.; Amin, Bushra K.

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study was detecting genetic variations for the Kurdish population in Kurdistan region-Iraq, using fifteen autosomal STR loci. Buccal swabs were collected and depositing on Nucleic Card (Copan, Italia Spa) from 302 healthy unrelated Iraqi Kurds in five provinces of Kurdistan region-Iraq. Fifteen autosomal STR loci are D8S1179, D21S11, D7S820, CSF1PO, D3S1358, TH01, D13S317, D16S539, D2S1338, D19S433, vWA, TPOX, D18S51, D5S818, FGA and Amelogenin included in the AmpFlSTR Identifiler® Direct PCR Amplification Kit (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). No significant departure from Hardy Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) expectations were observed in 10 from 15 STR loci analyzed (a 5% significance level was taken). The exceptions were the CSF1PO, D3S1358, D13S317, D16S539 and D2S1338 loci. Statistical parameters of forensic efficiencies were estimated for the loci, based on allelic frequencies. The mean of observed heterozygosity, expected heterozygosity and PIC values across the 15 loci were 0.762, 0.797 and 0.768 respectively, indicating high gene diversity. The combined probability of exclusion, power of discrimination, probability of matching value for all the 15 STR loci were 0.9999968; 0.9999999 and 4.966×10-17, respectively. These parameters indicated the importance of the loci for forensic genetic purposes and paternity testing.

The Effects of Revealed Information on Catastrophe Loss Projection Models' Characterization of Risk: Damage Vulnerability Evidence from Florida.

PubMed

Karl, J Bradley; Medders, Lorilee A; Maroney, Patrick F

2016-06-01

We examine whether the risk characterization estimated by catastrophic loss projection models is sensitive to the revelation of new information regarding risk type. We use commercial loss projection models from two widely employed modeling firms to estimate the expected hurricane losses of Florida Atlantic University's building stock, both including and excluding secondary information regarding hurricane mitigation features that influence damage vulnerability. We then compare the results of the models without and with this revealed information and find that the revelation of additional, secondary information influences modeled losses for the windstorm-exposed university building stock, primarily evidenced by meaningful percent differences in the loss exceedance output indicated after secondary modifiers are incorporated in the analysis. Secondary risk characteristics for the data set studied appear to have substantially greater impact on probable maximum loss estimates than on average annual loss estimates. While it may be intuitively expected for catastrophe models to indicate that secondary risk characteristics hold value for reducing modeled losses, the finding that the primary value of secondary risk characteristics is in reduction of losses in the "tail" (low probability, high severity) events is less intuitive, and therefore especially interesting. Further, we address the benefit-cost tradeoffs that commercial entities must consider when deciding whether to undergo the data collection necessary to include secondary information in modeling. Although we assert the long-term benefit-cost tradeoff is positive for virtually every entity, we acknowledge short-term disincentives to such an effort. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Task value profiles across subjects and aspirations to physical and IT-related sciences in the United States and Finland.

PubMed

Chow, Angela; Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Salmela-Aro, Katariina

2012-11-01

Two independent studies were conducted to extend previous research by examining the associations between task value priority patterns across school subjects and aspirations toward the physical and information technology- (IT-) related sciences. Study 1 measured task values of a sample of 10th graders in the United States (N = 249) across (a) physics and chemistry, (b) math, and (c) English. Study 2 measured task values of a sample of students in the second year of high school in Finland (N = 351) across (a) math and science, (b) Finnish, and (c) the arts and physical education. In both studies, students were classified into groups according to how they ranked math and science in relation to the other subjects. Regression analyses indicated that task value group membership significantly predicted subsequent aspirations toward physical and IT-related sciences measured 1-2 years later. The task value groups who placed the highest priority on math and science were significantly more likely to aspire to physical and IT-related sciences than were the other groups. These findings provide support for the theoretical assumption regarding the predictive role of intraindividual hierarchical patterns of task values for subsequent preferences and choices suggested by the Eccles [Parsons] (1983) expectancy-value model.

Does school ethos explain the relationship between value-added education and teenage substance use? A cohort study.

PubMed

Markham, Wolfgang A; Young, Robert; Sweeting, Helen; West, Patrick; Aveyard, Paul

2012-07-01

Previous studies found lower substance use in schools achieving better examination and truancy results than expected, given their pupil populations (high value-added schools). This study examines whether these findings are replicated in West Scotland and whether school ethos indicators focussing on pupils' perceptions of schooling (environment, involvement, engagement and teacher-pupil relations) mediate the associations. Teenagers from forty-one schools (S2, aged 13, n = 2268; S4, aged 15, n = 2096) previously surveyed in primary school (aged 11, n = 2482) were surveyed in the late 1990s. School value-added scores were derived from standardised residuals of two regression equations separately predicting from pupils' socio-demographic characteristics (1) proportions of pupils passing five Scottish Standard Grade Examinations, and (2) half-day truancy loss. Outcomes were current smoking, monthly drinking, ever illicit drug use. Random effects logistic regression models adjusted for potential pupil-level confounders were used to assess (1) associations between substance use and school-level value-added scores and (2) whether these associations were mediated by pupils' perceptions of schooling or other school-level factors (school roll, religious denomination and mean aggregated school-level ethos scores). Against expectations, value-added education was positively associated with smoking (Odds Ratios [95% confidence intervals] for one standard deviation increase in value-added scores were 1.28 [1.02-1.61] in S2 and 1.13 [1.00-1.27] in S4) and positively but weakly and non-significantly associated with drinking and drug use. Engagement and positive teacher-pupil relations were strongly and negatively associated with all substance use outcomes at both ages. Other school-level factors appeared weakly and largely non-significantly related to substance use. Value-added scores were unrelated to school ethos measures and no ethos measure mediated associations between value-added education and substance use. We conclude that substance use in Scotland is more likely in high value-added schools, among disengaged students and those with poorer student-teacher relationships. Understanding the underpinning mechanisms is a potentially important public health concern. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does school ethos explain the relationship between value-added education and teenage substance use? A cohort study

PubMed Central

Markham, Wolfgang A.; Young, Robert; Sweeting, Helen; West, Patrick; Aveyard, Paul

2012-01-01

Previous studies found lower substance use in schools achieving better examination and truancy results than expected, given their pupil populations (high value-added schools). This study examines whether these findings are replicated in West Scotland and whether school ethos indicators focussing on pupils' perceptions of schooling (environment, involvement, engagement and teacher–pupil relations) mediate the associations. Teenagers from forty-one schools (S2, aged 13, n = 2268; S4, aged 15, n = 2096) previously surveyed in primary school (aged 11, n = 2482) were surveyed in the late 1990s. School value-added scores were derived from standardised residuals of two regression equations separately predicting from pupils' socio-demographic characteristics (1) proportions of pupils passing five Scottish Standard Grade Examinations, and (2) half-day truancy loss. Outcomes were current smoking, monthly drinking, ever illicit drug use. Random effects logistic regression models adjusted for potential pupil-level confounders were used to assess (1) associations between substance use and school-level value-added scores and (2) whether these associations were mediated by pupils' perceptions of schooling or other school-level factors (school roll, religious denomination and mean aggregated school-level ethos scores). Against expectations, value-added education was positively associated with smoking (Odds Ratios [95% confidence intervals] for one standard deviation increase in value-added scores were 1.28 [1.02–1.61] in S2 and 1.13 [1.00–1.27] in S4) and positively but weakly and non-significantly associated with drinking and drug use. Engagement and positive teacher–pupil relations were strongly and negatively associated with all substance use outcomes at both ages. Other school-level factors appeared weakly and largely non-significantly related to substance use. Value-added scores were unrelated to school ethos measures and no ethos measure mediated associations between value-added education and substance use. We conclude that substance use in Scotland is more likely in high value-added schools, among disengaged students and those with poorer student–teacher relationships. Understanding the underpinning mechanisms is a potentially important public health concern. PMID:22503837

Covariate analysis of bivariate survival data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, L.E.

1992-01-01

The methods developed are used to analyze the effects of covariates on bivariate survival data when censoring and ties are present. The proposed method provides models for bivariate survival data that include differential covariate effects and censored observations. The proposed models are based on an extension of the univariate Buckley-James estimators which replace censored data points by their expected values, conditional on the censoring time and the covariates. For the bivariate situation, it is necessary to determine the expectation of the failure times for one component conditional on the failure or censoring time of the other component. Two different methodsmore » have been developed to estimate these expectations. In the semiparametric approach these expectations are determined from a modification of Burke's estimate of the bivariate empirical survival function. In the parametric approach censored data points are also replaced by their conditional expected values where the expected values are determined from a specified parametric distribution. The model estimation will be based on the revised data set, comprised of uncensored components and expected values for the censored components. The variance-covariance matrix for the estimated covariate parameters has also been derived for both the semiparametric and parametric methods. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey was analyzed by these methods. The two outcome variables are post-partum amenorrhea and breastfeeding; education and parity were used as the covariates. Both the covariate parameter estimates and the variance-covariance estimates for the semiparametric and parametric models will be compared. In addition, a multivariate test statistic was used in the semiparametric model to examine contrasts. The significance of the statistic was determined from a bootstrap distribution of the test statistic.« less

A preliminary path analysis of expectancy and patient-provider encounter in an open-label randomized controlled trial of spinal manipulation for cervicogenic headache.

PubMed

Haas, Mitchell; Aickin, Mikel; Vavrek, Darcy

2010-01-01

The purpose of this article was to present a preliminary model to identify the effects of expectancy of treatment success and the patient-provider encounter (PPE) on outcomes in an open-label randomized trial. Eighty participants with chronic cervicogenic headache (CGH) were randomized to 4 groups: 2 levels of treatment dose (8 or 16) and 2 levels of therapy from a chiropractor (spinal manipulation or light massage). Providers were instructed to have equal enthusiasm for all care. Structural equation modeling with standardized path coefficients (beta) was used in a path analysis to identify the effects of patient expectancy and the PPE on CGH pain. The model included monthly pain from baseline to 12 weeks. Expectancy and PPE were evaluated on Likert scales. The patient-provider encounter was measured as patient perception of chiropractor enthusiasm, confidence, and comfort with care. Baseline patient expectancy was balanced across groups. The PPE measures were balanced across groups and consistent over the 8-week treatment period. Treatment and baseline pain had the strongest effects on pain outcomes (|beta| = .46-.59). Expectations had little effect on pain (abs value(beta) < .15). The patient-provider encounter had a weak effect on pain (abs value(beta)= .03-.27) and on subsequent confidence in treatment success (abs value(beta)= .09 and .12). Encouraging equipoise in the PPE and balancing expectancy across treatment groups may protect against some confounding related to the absence of blinding in a randomized controlled trial of pain. In this trial, their effects were found to be small relative to the effects of treatment and baseline values. Copyright 2010 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Adjusting Estimates of the Expected Value of Information for Implementation: Theoretical Framework and Practical Application.

PubMed

Andronis, Lazaros; Barton, Pelham M

2016-04-01

Value of information (VoI) calculations give the expected benefits of decision making under perfect information (EVPI) or sample information (EVSI), typically on the premise that any treatment recommendations made in light of this information will be implemented instantly and fully. This assumption is unlikely to hold in health care; evidence shows that obtaining further information typically leads to "improved" rather than "perfect" implementation. To present a method of calculating the expected value of further research that accounts for the reality of improved implementation. This work extends an existing conceptual framework by introducing additional states of the world regarding information (sample information, in addition to current and perfect information) and implementation (improved implementation, in addition to current and optimal implementation). The extension allows calculating the "implementation-adjusted" EVSI (IA-EVSI), a measure that accounts for different degrees of implementation. Calculations of implementation-adjusted estimates are illustrated under different scenarios through a stylized case study in non-small cell lung cancer. In the particular case study, the population values for EVSI and IA-EVSI were £ 25 million and £ 8 million, respectively; thus, a decision assuming perfect implementation would have overestimated the expected value of research by about £ 17 million. IA-EVSI was driven by the assumed time horizon and, importantly, the specified rate of change in implementation: the higher the rate, the greater the IA-EVSI and the lower the difference between IA-EVSI and EVSI. Traditionally calculated measures of population VoI rely on unrealistic assumptions about implementation. This article provides a simple framework that accounts for improved, rather than perfect, implementation and offers more realistic estimates of the expected value of research. © The Author(s) 2015.

Evaluation of outpatient service quality in Eastern Saudi Arabia. Patient's expectations and perceptions.

PubMed

Al Fraihi, Khalid J; Latif, Shahid A

2016-04-01

To investigate perceptions and expectations of patients regarding hospital outpatient services by using a service quality gap model and factors influencing such gaps. In this cross-sectional descriptive study conducted between October and November 2014 in the outpatient waiting areas of a hospital in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, a sample of 306 patients was selected by convenience sampling technique. The data was collected through an Arabic version of the service quality (SERVQUAL) questionnaire consisting of 2 parts: patients' demographic characteristics, and 22 items scales of patients' expectations and perceptions of SERVQUAL. The data was analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis, independent, and paired t samples tests and one way analysis of variance test The results showed that the proposed model for service quality dimensions had a good fit by satisfying the recommended values. The patients' expectations exceeded perceptions in all service quality dimensions indicating statistically significant service quality gaps (t=26.3, p less than 0.000). Findings revealed that the empathy dimension contributed most patients' expectations (4.7 ± 0.5) and perceptions (3.7 ± 0.8) scores, and responsiveness contributed least to expectations (4.5 ± 0.6) and perceptions (3.2 ± 0.8) scores. Prompt services showed highest service quality gap, while observation of privacy showed the smallest service quality gap in the statements. The study showed a significant association between gender, age, education, multiple visits, and service quality dimensions. The proposed model is valid and reliable and significant service quality gaps of all 5 dimensions need to be prioritized and addressed by focused improvement efforts of hospital management.

Algebraic function operator expectation value based quantum eigenstate determination: A case of twisted or bent Hamiltonian, or, a spatially univariate quantum system on a curved space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baykara, N. A.

Recent studies on quantum evolutionary problems in Demiralp’s group have arrived at a stage where the construction of an expectation value formula for a given algebraic function operator depending on only position operator becomes possible. It has also been shown that this formula turns into an algebraic recursion amongst some finite number of consecutive elements in a set of expectation values of an appropriately chosen basis set over the natural number powers of the position operator as long as the function under consideration and the system Hamiltonian are both autonomous. This recursion corresponds to a denumerable infinite number of algebraicmore » equations whose solutions can or can not be obtained analytically. This idea is not completely original. There are many recursive relations amongst the expectation values of the natural number powers of position operator. However, those recursions may not be always efficient to get the system energy values and especially the eigenstate wavefunctions. The present approach is somehow improved and generalized form of those expansions. We focus on this issue for a specific system where the Hamiltonian is defined on the coordinate of a curved space instead of the Cartesian one.« less

Links between adolescents' expected parental reactions and prosocial behavioral tendencies: the mediating role of prosocial values.

PubMed

Hardy, Sam A; Carlo, Gustavo; Roesch, Scott C

2010-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine relations between adolescents' social cognitions regarding parenting practices and adolescents' prosocial behavioral tendencies. A mediation model was tested whereby the degree to which adolescents perceived their parents as responding appropriately to their prosocial and antisocial behaviors was hypothesized to predict adolescents' tendencies toward prosocial behavior indirectly by way of adolescents' prosocial values. Adolescents (N = 140; M age = 16.76 years, SD = .80; 64% girls; 91% European Americans) completed measures of prosocial values and of the appropriateness with which they expected their parents to react to their prosocial and antisocial behaviors. In addition, teachers and parents rated the adolescents' tendencies for prosocial behaviors. A structural equation model test showed that the degree to which adolescents expected their parents to respond appropriately to their prosocial behaviors was related positively to their prosocial values, which in turn was positively associated with their tendencies to engage in prosocial behaviors (as reported by parents and teachers). The findings provide evidence for the central role of adolescents' evaluations and expectancies of parental behaviors and of the role of values in predicting prosocial tendencies. Discussion focuses on the implications for moral socialization theories and on the practical implications of these findings in understanding adolescents' prosocial development.

Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

2009-09-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. The results of the applied statistical downscaling technique indicate that observed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in NW Spain are expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. The common tendency is that hot days increase while cold nights diminish all over the year. As expected, these tendencies change between different scenarios: they are more marked for A2 and A1B scenarios than for the for the B1 scenario. Moreover, the three models behave different under the same scenario, leaving a great uncertainty for the future. Nevertheless, we conclude that more frequent hot days, as well as an increasing probability of summertime heat waves are to be expected in the next decades. Cold days tend to diminish, decreasing the probability of wintertime cold waves and leaving a greater part of the area under study without frost days throughout the year.

Skill-Related Uncertainty and Expected Value in 5- to 7-Year-Olds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bayless, Sarah; Schlottmann, Anne

2010-01-01

Studies using an Information Integration approach have shown that children from four years have a good intuitive understanding of probability and expected value. Experience of skill-related uncertainty may provide one naturalistic opportunity to develop this intuitive understanding. To test the viability of this view, 16 5- and 16 7-year-olds…

Influence of Significant Others on High School Students' Expectancies of Success and Task Value in Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Skip M.; Weiss, Windee

2018-01-01

This study examined the perceived influence of significant others' beliefs on students' expectancies of success and task value in physical education (PE). PE students (N = 231) between Grades 9 and 12 participated. Multiple regressions examined the influence of perceived parents', teachers', and classmates' beliefs on students' ability…

Identifying Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs: A Latent Class Analysis Approach to Analyzing Middle School Students' Science Self-Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phelan, Julia; Ing, Marsha; Nylund-Gibson, Karen; Brown, Richard S.

2017-01-01

This study extends current research by organizing information about students' expectancy-value achievement motivation, in a way that helps parents and teachers identify specific entry points to encourage and support students' science aspirations. This study uses latent class analysis to describe underlying differences in ability beliefs, task…

Teaching Methods for Modelling Problems and Students' Task-Specific Enjoyment, Value, Interest and Self-Efficacy Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schukajlow, Stanislaw; Leiss, Dominik; Pekrun, Reinhard; Blum, Werner; Muller, Marcel; Messner, Rudolf

2012-01-01

In this study which was part of the DISUM-project, 224 ninth graders from 14 German classes from middle track schools (Realschule) were asked about their enjoyment, interest, value and self-efficacy expectations concerning three types of mathematical problems: intra-mathematical problems, word problems and modelling problems. Enjoyment, interest,…

Understanding Female Sport Attrition in a Stereotypical Male Sport within the Framework of Eccles's Expectancy-Value Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guillet, Emma; Sarrazin, Philippe; Fontayne, Paul; Brustad, Robert J.

2006-01-01

An empirical research study based upon the expectancy-value model of Eccles and colleagues (1983) investigated the effect of gender-role orientations on psychological dimensions of female athletes' sport participation and the likelihood of their continued participation in a stereotypical masculine activity. The model (Eccles et al., 1983) posits…

Racial Identity, Centrality and Giftedness: An Expectancy-Value Application of Motivation in Gifted African American Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodgers, Kelly A.

2008-01-01

This article explores the interaction between racial and ethnic identity, racial centrality, and giftedness and then uses an expectancy-value motivation model as a framework for understanding how the interplay among racial identity, centrality, and giftedness contributes to the motivation of African American gifted students. The analysis begins by…

The Development of a Mathematics Self-Report Inventory for Turkish Elementary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akin, Ayça; Güzeller, Cem Oktay; Evcan, Sinem Sezer

2016-01-01

The purpose of the current study is to develop a mathematics self-report inventory (MSRI) to measure Turkish elementary students' mathematics expectancy beliefs and task values based on the expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation. In Study-1 (n = 1,315), exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and reliability analysis are used to evaluate the…

Using Expectancy-Value Theory to Explore Aspects of Motivation and Engagement in Inquiry-Based Learning in Primary Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

2017-01-01

Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and…

Relationships among Middle School Students' Expectancy Beliefs, Task Values, and Health-Related Fitness Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Han; Sun, Haichun; Dai, Jun; Griffin, Michael

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify gender and body weight differences in Chinese adolescents' perceived expectancy value (EV) motivation in their physical education (PE) class. The study also explored the relationship between EV and adolescents' health-related fitness performances. Method: A group of seventh and eighth graders (N =…

The Use of an Expectancy-Value Model in Studying a University's Image. AIR Forum 1982 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muffo, John A.; Whipple, Thomas W.

The use of an expectancy-value model, common to consumer marketing studies, in analyzing the market position of Cleveland State University was investigated. Attention was focused on showing how consumer attitude concepts and methodologies can be used in developing a strategic marketing plan. Six populations were identified as groups important to…

A Multivariate Analysis of Personality, Values and Expectations as Correlates of Career Aspirations of Final Year Medical Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Mary E.; Searle, Judy; Creed, Peter A.; Ng, Shu-Kay

2010-01-01

This study reports on the career intentions of 179 final year medical students who completed an online survey that included measures of personality, values, professional and lifestyle expectations, and well-being. Logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of preferred medical specialty, practice location and hours of work.…

Convergence of moment expansions for expectation values with embedded random matrix ensembles and quantum chaos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kota, V. K. B.

2003-07-01

Smoothed forms for expectation values < K> E of positive definite operators K follow from the K-density moments either directly or in many other ways each giving a series expansion (involving polynomials in E). In large spectroscopic spaces one has to partition the many particle spaces into subspaces. Partitioning leads to new expansions for expectation values. It is shown that all the expansions converge to compact forms depending on the nature of the operator K and the operation of embedded random matrix ensembles and quantum chaos in many particle spaces. Explicit results are given for occupancies < ni> E, spin-cutoff factors < JZ2> E and strength sums < O†O> E, where O is a one-body transition operator.

On the Q-dependence of the lowest-order QED corrections and other properties of the ground 11S-states in the two-electron ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolov, Alexei M.

2015-10-01

Formulas and expectation values which are need to determine the lowest-order QED corrections (∼α3) and corresponding recoil (or finite mass) corrections in the two-electron helium-like ions are presented. Other important properties of the two-electron ions are also determined to high accuracy, including the expectation values of the quasi-singular Vinti operator and < reN-2> and < ree-2> expectation values. Elastic scattering of fast electrons by the two-electron ions in the Born approximation is considered. Interpolation formulas are derived for the bound state properties of the two-electron ions as the function of the nuclear electric charge Q.

Do framing effects reveal irrational choice?

PubMed

Mandel, David R

2014-06-01

Framing effects have long been viewed as compelling evidence of irrationality in human decision making, yet that view rests on the questionable assumption that numeric quantifiers used to convey the expected values of choice options are uniformly interpreted as exact values. Two experiments show that when the exactness of such quantifiers is made explicit by the experimenter, framing effects vanish. However, when the same quantifiers are given a lower bound (at least) meaning, the typical framing effect is found. A 3rd experiment confirmed that most people spontaneously interpret the quantifiers in standard framing tests as lower bounded and that their interpretations strongly moderate the framing effect. Notably, in each experiment, a significant majority of participants made rational choices, either choosing the option that maximized expected value (i.e., lives saved) or choosing consistently across frames when the options were of equal expected value. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Numerical solution of open string field theory in Schnabl gauge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arroyo, E. Aldo; Fernandes-Silva, A.; Szitas, R.

2018-01-01

Using traditional Virasoro L 0 level-truncation computations, we evaluate the open bosonic string field theory action up to level (10 , 30). Extremizing this level-truncated potential, we construct a numerical solution for tachyon condensation in Schnabl gauge. We find that the energy associated to the numerical solution overshoots the expected value -1 at level L = 6. Extrapolating the level-truncation data for L ≤ 10 to estimate the vacuum energies for L > 10, we predict that the energy reaches a minimum value at L ˜ 12, and then turns back to approach -1 asymptotically as L → ∞. Furthermore, we analyze the tachyon vacuum expectation value (vev), for which by extrapolating its corresponding level-truncation data, we predict that the tachyon vev reaches a minimum value at L ˜ 26, and then turns back to approach the expected analytical result as L → ∞.

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

PubMed

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Smoking as a decision among pregnant and non-pregnant women.

PubMed

Ortendahl, Monica

2006-10-01

The purpose was to examine values and beliefs related to smoking, and to test the validity of a decision model based on the product of the value of smoking-related events and states, and the belief that these will occur, (in decision research labeled Expected Utility, or EU). Over a two-week period eighty women, divided into subgroups consisting of pregnant vs. non-pregnant women, and those intending vs. those not intending to quit smoking, performed evaluations of values and beliefs for the two conditions of quitting and not quitting smoking. For both pregnant and non-pregnant women expected utility of smoking was negative. Of all the four groups pregnant women not intending to quit smoking estimated the expected utility of smoking as least negative. A decision analytic approach is applicable to describe the addictive behavior of smoking. Values as well as beliefs about smoking should be stressed in smoking cessation programs, especially among pregnant women.

Evaluation of toxic and interactive toxic effects of three agrochemicals and copper using a battery of microbiotests.

PubMed

Kungolos, A; Emmanouil, C; Tsiridis, V; Tsiropoulos, N

2009-08-01

Three commonly used test organisms of different trophic levels (Vibrio fischeri, Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata and Daphnia magna) were exposed to selected agrochemicals (fosthiazate, metalaxyl-M, imidacloprid) and copper, in single doses or in binary mixtures. The toxicity of each single compound varied up to two orders of magnitude, depending on the test species examined. V. fischeri was the most sensitive test organism regarding fosthiazate and metalaxyl-M, indicating an IC(50) value of 0.20 mg/L (0.17-0.25 mg/L) and 0.88 mg/L (0.35-1.57 mg/L), respectively. Imidacloprid was the least toxic compound, indicating an EC(50) value on D. magna of 64.6 mg/L (43.3-122.5 mg/L) and an IC(50) value on V. fischeri of 226 mg/L (159-322 mg/L), while for imidacloprid at a concentration of 1000 mg/L the effect on P. subcapitata was lower than 50%. Copper was the most toxic compound towards all test organisms exhibiting the highest toxic effect on P. subcapitata, with an IC(50) value of 0.05 mg/L (0.003-0.008 mg/L). The toxic effects of the binary mixtures have been compared to the theoretically expected effect, resulting from a simple mathematical model based on the theory of probabilities. The independent action model was used in order to predict the theoretically expected effect. The interactive effects were mostly antagonistic or additive, while in few cases (interactive effects of metalaxyl-M and copper on V. fischeri) a synergistic mode of action was observed for some concentration combinations. Experiments showed that interactive effects of chemicals may vary depending on the test species used as well as on the chemicals and their respective concentrations. Although most of the concentrations of chemicals tested in this study are higher than the ones usually found in natural environment, the evaluation of their interactive toxic effects using a battery of bioassays may comprise a useful tool for the estimation of the environmental hazard of chemicals.

Detecting Defects Within Soil-Bentonite Slurry Cutoff Walls Using Electrical Resistivity Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aborn, L.; Jacob, R. W.; Mucelli, A.

2016-12-01

Installed in the subsurface, vertical cutoff walls may limit groundwater movement. The effectiveness of these walls can be undermined by defects, for example high permeability material, within the wall. An efficient way of detecting these defects in a soil-bentonite slurry cutoff wall has yet to be established. We installed an approximately 200-meter long and 7-meter deep soil-bentonite slurry cutoff wall for the purposes of research. The wall was constructed adjacent to a natural wetland, the Montandon Marsh near Lewisburg, PA. The wall is composed of soil-bentonite backfill and was designed to be a typical low permeability material. We evaluate the capability of non-invasive geophysical techniques, specifically electrical resistivity, to detect high permeability defects that are expected to have higher electrical resistivity values than the backfill material. The laboratory measured electrical resistivity of the backfill used for construction was 12.27-ohm meters. During construction, designed defects of saturated fine-grained sand bags were deployed at different positions and depths within the wall. To create larger defects multiple bags were tied together. Laboratory resistivity testing of the sand and the filled sand bags indicates values between 125-ohm meters at full saturation and 285-ohm meters at partial saturation. Post construction, we collected electrical resistivity data using a 28-channel system along the centerline of the cutoff wall, which indicated the backfill material to have a resistivity value of 15-ohm meters. The electrical resistivity profile was affected by the sidewalls of the trench, as expected, which may explain the difference between laboratory results and field measurements. To minimize the sidewalls obscuring the defects, we developed electrodes that are pushed into the backfill at different depths to collect subsurface resistivity. Different arrays and electrode spacings are being tested. Our presentation will report the most effective method for detecting defects within a soil-bentonite cutoff wall.

Changes in mortality of Yellowstone's grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, David J.

1998-01-01

Records of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) deaths are currently used by managers to indicate trends in actual grizzly bear mortality and to judge the effectiveness of management. Two assumptions underlie these current uses: first, that recorded mortality is an unbiased indicator of actual mortality, and second, that changes in mortality after implementation of management strategies are sufficient grounds to infer the effects of management. I examined the defensibility of these 2 assumptions relative to alternate explanations, circumstantial evidence, and the potential costs of error. The potentially complex relation between actual and recorded mortality, as currently tallied and used, was reason to expect that the association between these 2 values would be weak. This expectation was supported by the prevalence (60-76%) of radio-marked bears among recorded deaths, the variation in apparent likelihood of documentation among causes of death, and variation in the prevalence of different causes over time. For these reasons, recorded mortality is likely to be an unreliable indicator of actual mortality. Use of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) seeds by grizzly bears had a major effect on annual variation in recorded mortality. Low numbers of recorded deaths, 1984-92, were attributable to relatively frequent large whitebark pine seed crops. There was little or no residual trend potentially ascribed to management intervention during 1976-92. Management intervention was probably responsible for observed changes in recorded causes of death and stabilized recorded mortality over the period covered by this analysis.

Adolescent-perceived parent and teacher overestimation of mathematics ability: Developmental implications for students' mathematics task values.

PubMed

Gniewosz, Burkhard; Watt, Helen M G

2017-07-01

This study examines whether and how student-perceived parents' and teachers' overestimation of students' own perceived mathematical ability can explain trajectories for adolescents' mathematical task values (intrinsic and utility) controlling for measured achievement, following expectancy-value and self-determination theories. Longitudinal data come from a 3-cohort (mean ages 13.25, 12.36, and 14.41 years; Grades 7-10), 4-wave data set of 1,271 Australian secondary school students. Longitudinal structural equation models revealed positive effects of student-perceived overestimation of math ability by parents and teachers on students' intrinsic and utility math task values development. Perceived parental overestimations predicted intrinsic task value changes between all measurement occasions, whereas utility task value changes only were predicted between Grades 9 and 10. Parental influences were stronger for intrinsic than utility task values. Teacher influences were similar for both forms of task values and commenced after the curricular school transition in Grade 8. Results support the assumptions that the perceived encouragement conveyed by student-perceived mathematical ability beliefs of parents and teachers, promote positive mathematics task values development. Moreover, results point to different mechanisms underlying parents' and teachers' support. Finally, the longitudinal changes indicate transition-related increases in the effects of student-perceived overestimations and stronger effects for intrinsic than utility values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Are red mullet efficient as bio-indicators of mercury contamination? A case study from the French Mediterranean.

PubMed

Cresson, P; Bouchoucha, M; Miralles, F; Elleboode, R; Mahé, K; Marusczak, N; Thebault, H; Cossa, D

2015-02-15

Mercury (Hg) is one of the main chemicals currently altering Mediterranean ecosystems. Red mullet (Mullus barbatus and M. surmuletus) have been widely used as quantitative bio-indicators of chemical contamination. In this study, we reassess the ability of these species to be used as efficient bio-indicators of Hg contamination by monitoring during 18 months Hg concentrations in muscle tissue of mullet sampled from 5 French Mediterranean coastal areas. Mean concentrations ranged between 0.23 and 0.78 μg g(-1) dry mass for both species. Values were consistent with expected contamination patterns of all sites except Corsica. Results confirmed that red mullets are efficient bio-indicators of Hg contamination. Nevertheless, the observed variability in Hg concentrations calls for caution regarding the period and the sample size. Attention should be paid to environmental and biologic specificities of each studied site, as they can alter the bioaccumulation of Hg, and lead to inferences about environmental Hg concentrations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distinct Motivational Effects of Contingent and Noncontingent Rewards.

PubMed

Manohar, Sanjay G; Finzi, Rebecca Dawn; Drew, Daniel; Husain, Masud

2017-07-01

When rewards are available, people expend more energy, increasing their motivational vigor. In theory, incentives might drive behavior for two distinct reasons: First, they increase expected reward; second, they increase the difference in subjective value between successful and unsuccessful performance, which increases contingency-the degree to which action determines outcome. Previous studies of motivational vigor have never compared these directly. Here, we indexed motivational vigor by measuring the speed of eye movements toward a target after participants heard a cue indicating how outcomes would be determined. Eye movements were faster when the cue indicated that monetary rewards would be contingent on performance than when the cue indicated that rewards would be random. But even when the cue indicated that a reward was guaranteed regardless of speed, movement was still faster than when no reward was available. Motivation by contingent and certain rewards was uncorrelated across individuals, which suggests that there are two separable, independent components of motivation. Contingent motivation generated autonomic arousal, and unlike noncontingent motivation, was effective with penalties as well as rewards.

Impact of capillary flow hydrodynamics on carrier-mediated transport of opioid derivatives at the blood-brain barrier, based on pH-dependent Michaelis-Menten and Crone-Renkin analyses.

PubMed

Yusof, Siti R; Abbott, N Joan; Avdeef, Alex

2017-08-30

Most studies of blood-brain barrier (BBB) permeability and transport are conducted at a single pH, but more detailed information can be revealed by using multiple pH values. A pH-dependent biophysical model was applied to the mechanistic analysis of published pH-dependent BBB luminal uptake data from three opioid derivatives in rat: pentazocine (Suzuki et al., 2002a, 2002b), naloxone (Suzuki et al., 2010a), and oxycodone (Okura et al., 2008). Two types of data were processed: in situ brain perfusion (ISBP) and brain uptake index (BUI). The published perfusion data were converted to apparent luminal permeability values, P app , and analyzed by the pCEL-X program (Yusof et al., 2014), using the pH-dependent Crone-Renkin equation (pH-CRE) to determine the impact of cerebrovascular flow on the Michaelis-Menten transport parameters (Avdeef and Sun, 2011). For oxycodone, the ISBP data had been measured at pH7.4 and 8.4. The present analysis indicates a 7-fold lower value of the cerebrovascular flow velocity, F pf , than that expected in the original study. From the pyrilamine-inhibited data, the flow-corrected passive intrinsic permeability value was determined to be P 0 =398×10 -6 cm·s -1 . The uptake data indicate that the neutral form of oxycodone is affected by a transporter at pH8.4. The extent of the cation uptake was less certain from the available data. For pentazocine, the brain uptake by the BUI method had been measured at pH5.5, 6.5, and 7.4, in a concentration range 0.1-40mM. Under similar conditions, ISBP data were also available. The pH-CRE determined values of F pf from both methods were nearly the same, and were smaller than the expected value in the original publication. The transport of the cationic pentazocine was not fully saturated at pH5.5 at 40mM. The transport of the neutral species at pH7.4 appeared to reach saturation at 40mM pentazocine concentration, but not at 12mM. In the case of naloxone, a pH-dependent Michaelis-Menten equation (pH-MME) analysis of the data indicated a smooth sigmoidal transition from a higher capacity uptake process affecting cationic naloxone (pH5.0-7.0) to a lower capacity uptake process affecting the neutral drug (pH8.0-8.5), with cross-over point near pH7.4. Evidently, measurements at multiple pH values can reveal important information about both cerebrovascular flow and BBB transport kinetics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Positively versus negatively charged moral emotion expectancies in adolescence: the role of situational context and the developing moral self.

PubMed

Krettenauer, Tobias; Johnston, Megan

2011-09-01

The study analyses adolescents' positively charged versus negatively charged moral emotion expectancies. Two hundred and five students (M= 14.83 years, SD= 2.21) participated in an interview depicting various situations in which a moral norm was either regarded or transgressed. Emotion expectancies were assessed for specific emotions (pride, guilt) as well as for overall strength and valence. In addition, self-importance of moral values was measured by a questionnaire. Results revealed that positively charged emotion expectancies were more pronounced in contexts of prosocial action than in the context of moral transgressions, whereas the opposite was true for negatively charged emotions. At the same time, expectations of guilt and pride were substantially related to the self-importance of moral values. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Responses of selected neutron monitors to cosmic radiation at aviation altitudes.

PubMed

Yasuda, Hiroshi; Yajima, Kazuaki; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Takada, Masashi; Nakamura, Takashi

2009-06-01

Cosmic radiation exposure of aircraft crew, which is generally evaluated by numerical simulations, should be verified by measurements. From the perspective of radiological protection, the most contributing radiation component at aviation altitude is neutrons. Measurements of cosmic neutrons, however, are difficult in a civilian aircraft because of the limitations of space and electricity; a small, battery-operated dosimeter is required whereas larger-size instruments are generally used to detect neutrons with a broad range of energy. We thus examined the applicability of relatively new transportable neutron monitors for use in an aircraft. They are (1) a conventional rem meter with a polyethylene moderator (NCN1), (2) an extended energy-range rem meter with a tungsten-powder mixed moderator (WENDI-II), and (3) a recoil-proton scintillation rem meter (PRESCILA). These monitors were installed onto the racks of a business jet aircraft that flew two times near Japan. Observed data were compared to model calculations using a PHITS-based Analytical Radiation Model in the Atmosphere (PARMA). Excellent agreement between measured and calculated values was found for the WENDI-II. The NCN1 showed approximately half of predicted values, which were lower than those expected from its response function. The observations made with PRESCILA showed much higher than expected values; which is attributable to the presence of cosmic-ray protons and muons. These results indicate that careful attention must be paid to the dosimetric properties of a detector employed for verification of cosmic neutron dose.

Differences in attentional strategies by novice and experienced operating theatre scrub nurses.

PubMed

Koh, Ranieri Y I; Park, Taezoon; Wickens, Christopher D; Ong, Lay Teng; Chia, Soon Noi

2011-09-01

This study investigated the effect of nursing experience on attention allocation and task performance during surgery. The prevention of cases of retained foreign bodies after surgery typically depends on scrub nurses, who are responsible for performing multiple tasks that impose heavy demands on the nurses' cognitive resources. However, the relationship between the level of experiences and attention allocation strategies has not been extensively studied. Eye movement data were collected from 10 novice and 10 experienced scrub nurses in the operating theater for caesarean section surgeries. Visual scanning data, analyzed by dividing the workstation into four main areas and the surgery into four stages, were compared to the optimum expected value estimated by SEEV (Salience, Effort, Expectancy, and Value) model. Both experienced and novice nurses showed significant correlations to the optimal percentage dwell time values, and significant differences were found in attention allocation optimality between experienced and novice nurses, with experienced nurses adhering significantly more to the optimal in the stages of high workload. Experienced nurses spent less time on the final count and encountered fewer interruptions during the count than novices indicating better performance in task management, whereas novice nurses switched attention between areas of interest more than experienced nurses. The results provide empirical evidence of a relationship between the application of optimal visual attention management strategies and performance, opening up possibilities to the development of visual attention and interruption training for better performance. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Thermodynamic study of gaseous CsBO2 by Knudsen effusion mass spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakajima, K.; Takai, T.; Furukawa, T.; Osaka, M.

2017-08-01

One of the main chemical forms of cesium in the gas phase during severe light-water reactor accidents is expected to be cesium metaborate, CsBO2, according to thermodynamic equilibrium calculations considering its reaction with boron. However, the accuracy of the thermodynamic data of the gaseous metaborate, CsBO2(g), has been judged as poor. Thus, Knudsen effusion mass spectrometric measurements of CsBO2 were carried out to obtain reliable thermodynamic data. The evaluated values of the standard enthalpy of formation of CsBO2(g), obtained by the 2nd and 3rd-law treatments, are -700.7 ± 10.7 kJ/mol and -697.0 ± 10.6 kJ/mol, respectively, and agree with each other within the experimental errors, which indicates that our data are reliable. Furthermore, it was found that the existing data of the Gibbs energy function and the standard enthalpy of formation agreed well with the values evaluated in this study, which indicates that the existing thermodynamic data are also reliable.

Quality of psychiatric care in the general hospital: referrer perceptions of an inpatient liaison psychiatry service.

PubMed

Solomons, Luke C; Thachil, Ajoy; Burgess, Caroline; Hopper, Adrian; Glen-Day, Vicky; Ranjith, Gopinath; Hodgkiss, Andrew

2011-01-01

To explore the experience of senior staff on acute medical wards using an established inpatient liaison psychiatry service and obtain their views on clinically relevant performance measures. Semistructured face-to-face interviews with consultants and senior nurses were taped, transcribed and analyzed manually using the framework method of analysis. Twenty-five referrers were interviewed. Four key themes were identified - benefits of the liaison service, potential areas of improvement, indices of service performance such as speed and quality of response and expanded substance misuse service. Respondents felt the liaison service benefited patients, staff and service delivery in the general hospital. Medical consultants wanted stepped management plans devised by consultant liaison psychiatrists. Senior nurses, who perceived themselves as frontline crisis managers, valued on-the-spot input on patient management. Consultants and senior nurses differed in their expectations of liaison psychiatry. Referrers valued speed of response and regarded time from referral to definitive management plan as a key performance indicator for benchmarking services. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Opportunities for international collaboration in dog breeding from the sharing of pedigree and health data.

PubMed

Fikse, W F; Malm, S; Lewis, T W

2013-09-01

Pooling of pedigree and phenotype data from different countries may improve the accuracy of derived indicators of both genetic diversity and genetic merit of traits of interest. This study demonstrates significant migration of individuals of four pedigree dog breeds between Sweden and the United Kingdom. Correlations of estimates of genetic merit (estimated breeding values, EBVs) for the Fédération Cynologique Internationale and the British Veterinary Association and Kennel Club evaluations of hip dysplasia (HD) were strong and favourable, indicating that both scoring schemes capture substantially the same genetic trait. Therefore pooled use of phenotypic data on hip dysplasia would be expected to improve the accuracy of EBV for HD in both countries due to increased sample data. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Global fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level.

PubMed

Sethi, Suresh A; Branch, Trevor A; Watson, Reg

2010-07-06

Successful ocean management needs to consider not only fishing impacts but drivers of harvest. Consolidating post-1950 global catch and economic data, we assess which attributes of fisheries are good indicators for fishery development. Surprisingly, year of development and economic value are not correlated with fishery trophic levels. Instead, patterns emerge of profit-driven fishing for attributes related to costs and revenues. Post-1950 fisheries initially developed on shallow ranging species with large catch, high price, and big body size, and then expanded to less desirable species. Revenues expected from developed fisheries declined 95% from 1951 to 1999, and few high catch or valuable fishing opportunities remain. These results highlight the importance of economic attributes of species as leading indicators for harvest-related impacts in ocean ecosystems.

Global fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level

PubMed Central

Sethi, Suresh A.; Branch, Trevor A.; Watson, Reg

2010-01-01

Successful ocean management needs to consider not only fishing impacts but drivers of harvest. Consolidating post-1950 global catch and economic data, we assess which attributes of fisheries are good indicators for fishery development. Surprisingly, year of development and economic value are not correlated with fishery trophic levels. Instead, patterns emerge of profit-driven fishing for attributes related to costs and revenues. Post-1950 fisheries initially developed on shallow ranging species with large catch, high price, and big body size, and then expanded to less desirable species. Revenues expected from developed fisheries declined 95% from 1951 to 1999, and few high catch or valuable fishing opportunities remain. These results highlight the importance of economic attributes of species as leading indicators for harvest-related impacts in ocean ecosystems. PMID:20566867

Rolling-element fatigue life of silicon nitride balls. [as compared to that of steel, ceramic, and cermet materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, R. J.; Zaretsky, E. V.

1974-01-01

The five-ball fatigue tester was used to evaluate silicon nitride as a rolling-element bearing material. Results indicate that hot-pressed silicon nitride running against steel may be expected to yield fatigue lives comparable to or greater than those of bearing quality steel running against steel at stress levels typical rolling-element bearing application. The fatigue life of hot-pressed silicon nitride is considerably greater than that of any ceramic or cermet tested. Computer analysis indicates that there is no improvement in the lives of 120-mm-bore angular--contact ball bearings of the same geometry operating at DN values from 2 to 4 million where hot-pressed silicon nitride balls are used in place of steel balls.

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States

PubMed Central

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981–2010) and future (2080–2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making. PMID:26238673

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.

PubMed

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-08-04

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.

Thermal Diffusivity of High-Density Polyethylene Samples of Different Crystallinity Evaluated by Indirect Transmission Photoacoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesic, M.; Popovic, M.; Rabasovic, M.; Milicevic, D.; Suljovrujic, E.; Markushev, D.; Stojanovic, Z.

2018-02-01

In this work, thermal diffusivity of crystalline high-density polyethylene samples of various thickness, and prepared using different procedures, was evaluated by transmission gas-microphone frequency photoacoustics. The samples' composition analysis and their degree of crystallinity were determined from the wide-angle X-ray diffraction, which confirmed that high-density polyethylene samples, obtained by slow and fast cooling, were equivalent in composition but with different degrees of crystallinity. Structural analysis, performed by differential scanning calorimetry, demonstrated that all of the used samples had different levels of crystallinity, depending not only on the preparing procedure, but also on sample thickness. Therefore, in order to evaluate the samples' thermal diffusivity, it was necessary to modify standard photoacoustic fitting procedures (based on the normalization of photoacoustic amplitude and phase characteristics on two thickness levels) for the interpretation of photoacoustic measurements. The calculated values of thermal diffusivity were in the range of the expected literature values. Besides that, the obtained results indicate the unexpected correlation between the values of thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity with the degree of crystallinity of the investigated geometrically thin samples. The results indicate the necessity of additional investigation of energy transport in macromolecular systems, as well as the possible employment of the photoacoustic techniques in order to clarify its mechanism.

Trajectories of Educational Expectations from Adolescence to Young Adulthood in Finland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tynkkynen, Lotta; Tolvanen, Asko; Salmela-Aro, Katariina

2012-01-01

The purpose of this person-oriented, 5-wave longitudinal study was to examine the trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in the context of the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Altogether, 853 (48% female; M age = 16 years) Finnish adolescents reported their educational expectation, 1st in the…

Realising the Real Benefits of Outsourcing: Measurement Excellence and Its Importance in Achieving Long Term Value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oshri, Ilan; Kotlarsky, Julia

These days firms are, more than ever, pressed to demonstrate returns on their investment in outsourcing. While the initial returns can always be associated with one-off cost cutting, outsourcing arrangements are complex, often involving inter-related high-value activities, which makes the realisation of long-term benefits from outsourcing ever more challenging. Executives in client firms are no longer satisfied with the same level of service delivery through the outsourcing lifecycle. They seek to achieve business transformation and innovation in their present and future services, beyond satisfying service level agreements (SLAs). Clearly the business world is facing a new challenge: an outsourcing delivery system of high-value activities that demonstrates value over time and across business functions. However, despite such expectations, many client firms are in the dark when trying to measure and quantify the return on outsourcing investments: results of this research show that less than half of all CIOs and CFOs (43%) have attempted to calculate the financial impact of outsourcing to their bottom line, indicating that the financial benefits are difficult to quantify (51%).

Low-Visibility Visual Simulation with Real Fog

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chase, Wendell D.

1982-01-01

An environmental fog simulation (EFS) attachment was developed to aid in the study of natural low-visibility visual cues and subsequently used to examine the realism effect upon the aircraft simulator visual scene. A review of the basic fog equations indicated that the two major factors must be accounted for in the simulation of low visibility-one due to atmospheric attenuation and one due to veiling luminance. These factors are compared systematically by: comparing actual measurements lo those computed from the Fog equations, and comparing runway-visual-range-related visual-scene contrast values with the calculated values. These values are also compared with the simulated equivalent equations and with contrast measurements obtained from a current electronic fog synthesizer to help identify areas in which improvements are needed. These differences in technique, the measured values, the Features of both systems, a pilot opinion survey of the EFS fog, and improvements (by combining features of both systems) that are expected to significantly increase the potential as well as flexibility for producing a very high-fidelity, low-visibility visual simulation are discussed.

Low-visibility visual simulation with real fog

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chase, W. D.

1981-01-01

An environmental fog simulation (EFS) attachment was developed to aid in the study of natural low-visibility visual cues and subsequently used to examine the realism effect upon the aircraft simulator visual scene. A review of the basic fog equations indicated that two major factors must be accounted for in the simulation of low visibility - one due to atmospheric attenuation and one due to veiling luminance. These factors are compared systematically by (1) comparing actual measurements to those computed from the fog equations, and (2) comparing runway-visual-range-related visual-scene contrast values with the calculated values. These values are also compared with the simulated equivalent equations and with contrast measurements obtained from a current electronic fog synthesizer to help identify areas in which improvements are needed. These differences in technique, the measured values, the features of both systems, a pilot opinion survey of the EFS fog, and improvements (by combining features of both systems) that are expected to significantly increase the potential as well as flexibility for producing a very high-fidelity low-visibility visual simulation are discussed.

Trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in Finland.

PubMed

Tynkkynen, Lotta; Tolvanen, Asko; Salmela-Aro, Katariina

2012-11-01

The purpose of this person-oriented, 5-wave longitudinal study was to examine the trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in the context of the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Altogether, 853 (48% female; M age = 16 years) Finnish adolescents reported their educational expectation, 1st in the last year of comprehensive school and 4 times during the following 5 years. Latent class analysis showed that 5 trajectories of educational expectations fit the data best: stable-university (38%), stable-vocational (18%), stable-polytechnic (24%), increasing-expectations (10%), and decreasing-expectations (10%). In line with the expectancy-value theory, adolescents' academic achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), perception of parents' aspirations for them, and ability-beliefs were all related to their trajectories of educational expectations. For example, the higher the adolescent's SES, perception of parents' educational aspirations, and grade point average (GPA), the more likely the participant was to be in the stable-university trajectory compared to the stable-vocational trajectory. Gender had an indirect effect on the trajectories via GPA. Moreover, participants with higher ability-beliefs were more likely to be in trajectories with high and stable educational expectations compared to the unstable trajectories. The trajectories were related to the participants' educational situation after comprehensive school.

Reason and reaction: the utility of a dual-focus, dual-processing perspective on promotion and prevention of adolescent health risk behaviour.

PubMed

Gibbons, Frederick X; Houlihan, Amy E; Gerrard, Meg

2009-05-01

A brief overview of theories of health behaviour that are based on the expectancy-value perspective is presented. This approach maintains that health behaviours are the result of a deliberative decision-making process that involves consideration of behavioural options along with anticipated outcomes associated with those options. It is argued that this perspective is effective at explaining and predicting many types of health behaviour, including health-promoting actions (e.g. UV protection, condom use, smoking cessation), but less effective at predicting risky health behaviours, such as unprotected, casual sex, drunk driving or binge drinking. These are behaviours that are less reasoned or premeditated - especially among adolescents. An argument is made for incorporating elements of dual-processing theories in an effort to improve the 'utility' of these models. Specifically, it is suggested that adolescent health behaviour involves both analytic and heuristic processing. Both types of processing are incorporated in the prototype-willingness (prototype) model, which is described in some detail. Studies of health behaviour based on the expectancy-value perspective (e.g. theory of reasoned action) are reviewed, along with studies based on the prototype model. These two sets of studies together suggest that the dual-processing perspective, in general, and the prototype model, in particular, add to the predictive validity of expectancy-value models for predicting adolescent health behaviour. Research and interventions that incorporate elements of dual-processing and elements of expectancy-value are more effective at explaining and changing adolescent health behaviour than are those based on expectancy-value theories alone.

The psychometric properties of the WHOQOL-BREF in Japanese couples

PubMed Central

Sun, Yi; Sugawara, Masumi; Matsumoto, Satoko; Sakai, Atsushi; Takaoka, Junko; Goto, Noriko

2015-01-01

This study investigated the psychometric properties of the Japanese version of the WHOQOL-BREF among 10,693 community-based married Japanese men and women (4376 couples) who were either expecting or raising a child. Analyses of item-response distributions, internal consistency, criterion validity, and discriminant validity indicated that the scale had acceptable reliability and performed well in preliminary tests of validity. Furthermore, dyadic confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the theoretical factor structure was valid and similar across partners, suggesting that men and women define and value quality of life in a similar way. PMID:28070365

Baryogenesis in false vacuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamada, Yuta; Yamada, Masatoshi

2017-09-01

The null result in the LHC may indicate that the standard model is not drastically modified up to very high scales, such as the GUT/string scale. Having this in the mind, we suggest a novel leptogenesis scenario realized in the false vacuum of the Higgs field. If the Higgs field develops a large vacuum expectation value in the early universe, a lepton number violating process is enhanced, which we use for baryogenesis. To demonstrate the scenario, several models are discussed. For example, we show that the observed baryon asymmetry is successfully generated in the standard model with higher-dimensional operators.

Mechanics of the Unusual Basilar Membrane in Gerbil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapuria, Santosh; Steele, Charles R.; Puria, Sunil

2011-11-01

The basilar membrane in gerbil differs from most other mammals, since its width and thickness show little variation from base to apex, and tympanic fiber layer in the pectinate zone forms a pronounced arch. Measurements indicate a quadratically increasing stiffness under point loading, which is contrary to the expected behavior of an arch. The plateau value has been considered to be the physiologically relevant stiffness, but it only occurs after 10-25 μm of deflection, whereas the normal physiological deflection is in the submicron range. The present work aims to resolve these contradictions by considering the mechanics of the geometric configuration.

Variational Quantum Tomography with Incomplete Information by Means of Semidefinite Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maciel, Thiago O.; Cesário, André T.; Vianna, Reinaldo O.

We introduce a new method to reconstruct unknown quantum states out of incomplete and noisy information. The method is a linear convex optimization problem, therefore with a unique minimum, which can be efficiently solved with Semidefinite Programs. Numerical simulations indicate that the estimated state does not overestimate purity, and neither the expectation value of optimal entanglement witnesses. The convergence properties of the method are similar to compressed sensing approaches, in the sense that, in order to reconstruct low rank states, it needs just a fraction of the effort corresponding to an informationally complete measurement.

Secondary School Students' Physical Activity Participation across Physical Education Classes: The Expectancy-Value Theory Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gråstén, Arto; Watt, Anthony; Hagger, Martin; Jaakkola, Timo; Liukkonen, Jarmo

2015-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to analyze the link between students' expectancy beliefs, subjective task values, out-of-school activity, and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) participation across secondary school physical education (PE) classes. The sample comprised 96 students (58 girls, 38 boys; Mage = 15.03, SD = 0.94) from…

Effects of Parental Expectations and Cultural-Values Orientation on Career Decision-Making Difficulties of Chinese University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leung, S. Alvin; Hou, Zhi-Jin; Gati, Itamar; Li, Xixi

2011-01-01

This study examined the effects of cultural-values conflict and parental expectations on the career decision-making difficulties of university students in three cities in China (Beijing, Wuhan, and Hong Kong, N = 1342). The Multidimensional Scales of Individual Traditionality and Modernity (Yang, Yu, & Ye, 1989) were used as a measure of…

Using the Expectancy Value Model of Motivation to Understand the Relationship between Student Attitudes and Achievement in Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hood, Michelle; Creed, Peter A.; Neumann, David L.

2012-01-01

We tested a model of the relationship between attitudes toward statistics and achievement based on Eccles' Expectancy Value Model (1983). Participants (n = 149; 83% female) were second-year Australian university students in a psychology statistics course (mean age = 23.36 years, SD = 7.94 years). We obtained demographic details, past performance,…

Choices and Changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students' Longitudinal Reflections about Their Choice of a STEM Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

2016-01-01

During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school…

Educational and Career Interests in Math: A Longitudinal Examination of the Links between Classroom Environment, Motivational Beliefs, and Interests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ming-Te

2012-01-01

Drawing on the expectancy-value model, stage-environment fit theory, and self-determination theory, this study examined the longitudinal associations between classroom characteristics, expectancies-values, high school course enrollment, and career aspirations in the domain of math. Data were collected on 3,048 youth who reported on their classroom…

Understanding the Relationship between Parental Education and STEM Course Taking through Identity-Based and Expectancy-Value Theories of Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Svoboda, Ryan C.; Rozek, Christopher S.; Hyde, Janet S.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.; Destin, Mesmin

2016-01-01

High school students from lower-socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds are less likely to enroll in advanced mathematics and science courses compared to students from higher-SES backgrounds. The current longitudinal study draws on identity-based and expectancy-value theories of motivation to explain the SES and mathematics and science…

Renormalizing the Kinetic Energy Operator in Elementary Quantum Mechanics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coutinho, F. A. B.; Amaku, M.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we consider solutions to the three-dimensional Schrodinger equation of the form [psi](r) = u(r)/r, where u(0) [is not equal to] 0. The expectation value of the kinetic energy operator for such wavefunctions diverges. We show that it is possible to introduce a potential energy with an expectation value that also diverges, exactly…

Musings on cosmological relaxation and the hierarchy problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeckel, Joerg; Mehta, Viraf M.; Witkowski, Lukas T.

2016-03-01

Recently Graham, Kaplan and Rajendran proposed cosmological relaxation as a mechanism for generating a hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation value. Inspired by this we collect some thoughts on steps towards a solution to the electroweak hierarchy problem and apply them to the original model of cosmological relaxation [Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 221801 (2015)]. To do so, we study the dynamics of the model and determine the relation between the fundamental input parameters and the electroweak vacuum expectation value. Depending on the input parameters the model exhibits three qualitatively different regimes, two of which allow for hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation values. One leads to standard electroweak symmetry breaking whereas in the other regime electroweak symmetry is mainly broken by a Higgs source term. While the latter is not acceptable in a model based on the QCD axion, in non-QCD models this may lead to new and interesting signatures in Higgs observables. Overall, we confirm that cosmological relaxation can successfully give rise to a hierarchically small Higgs vacuum expectation value if (at least) one model parameter is chosen sufficiently small. However, we find that the required level of tuning for achieving this hierarchy in relaxation models can be much more severe than in the Standard Model.

Cosmological coherent state expectation values in loop quantum gravity I. Isotropic kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dapor, Andrea; Liegener, Klaus

2018-07-01

This is the first paper of a series dedicated to loop quantum gravity (LQG) coherent states and cosmology. The concept is based on the effective dynamics program of Loop Quantum Cosmology, where the classical dynamics generated by the expectation value of the Hamiltonian on semiclassical states is found to be in agreement with the quantum evolution of such states. We ask the question of whether this expectation value agrees with the one obtained in the full theory. The answer is in the negative, Dapor and Liegener (2017 arXiv:1706.09833). This series of papers is dedicated to detailing the computations that lead to that surprising result. In the current paper, we construct the family of coherent states in LQG which represent flat (k  =  0) Robertson–Walker spacetimes, and present the tools needed to compute expectation values of polynomial operators in holonomy and flux on such states. These tools will be applied to the LQG Hamiltonian operator (in Thiemann regularization) in the second paper of the series. The third paper will present an extension to cosmologies and a comparison with alternative regularizations of the Hamiltonian.

Shearing black holes and scans of the quark matter phase diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInnes, Brett

2014-01-01

Future facilities such as FAIR and NICA are expected to produce collisions of heavy ions generating quark-gluon plasmas (QGPs) with large values of the quark chemical potential; peripheral collisions in such experiments will also lead to large values of the angular momentum density, associated with the internal shearing motion of the plasma. It is well known that shearing motions in fluids can lead to instabilities which cause a transition from laminar to turbulent flow, and such instabilities in the QGP have recently attracted some attention. We set up a holographic model of this situation by constructing a gravitational dual system exhibiting an instability which is indeed triggered by shearing angular momentum in the bulk. We show that holography indicates that the transition to an unstable fluid happens more quickly as one scans across the quark matter phase diagram towards large values of the chemical potential. This may have negative consequences for the observability of quark polarization effects.

Methane seep carbonates yield clumped isotope signatures out of equilibrium with formation temperatures

DOE PAGES

Loyd, S. J.; Sample, J.; Tripati, R. E.; ...

2016-07-22

Here, methane cold seep systems typically exhibit extensive buildups of authigenic carbonate minerals, resulting from local increases in alkalinity driven by methane oxidation. Here, we demonstrate that modern seep authigenic carbonates exhibit anomalously low clumped isotope values (Δ47), as much as ~0.2‰ lower than expected values. In modern seeps, this range of disequilibrium translates into apparent temperatures that are always warmer than ambient temperatures, by up to 50 °C. We examine various mechanisms that may induce disequilibrium behaviour in modern seep carbonates, and suggest that the observed values result from several factors including kinetic isotopic effects during methane oxidation, mixingmore » of inorganic carbon pools, pH effects and rapid precipitation. Ancient seep carbonates studied here also exhibit potential disequilibrium signals. Ultimately, these findings indicate the predominance of disequilibrium clumped isotope behaviour in modern cold seep carbonates that must be considered when characterizing environmental conditions in both modern and ancient cold seep settings.« less

The role of ovarian reserve markers in prediction of clinical pregnancy.

PubMed

Zebitay, Ali G; Cetin, Orkun; Verit, Fatma F; Keskin, Seda; Sakar, M Nafi; Karahuseyinoglu, Sercin; Ilhan, Gulsah; Sahmay, Sezai

2017-05-01

To evaluate the role of ovarian reserve markers in the prediction of clinical pregnancy and embryo transfer accomplishment among poor responder IVF applicants. 304 female poor responder IVF applicants were included in this prospective cohort study conducted at the IVF-unit. Antral follicle count, FSH, LH, E2, AMH and IVF outcomes were compared in pregnant and non-pregnant groups as well as in ET vs. non-ET groups. The number of retrieved oocytes was significantly correlated positively with AMH and AFC, and negatively with FSH and age. Quartiles of FSH and AFC were similar to the rate of pregnancy. Quartiles of AMH (<25%/25-75% and <25%/>75%) were statistically significant. Mean serum levels for AMH were significantly lower in the non-ET group. Our findings seem to indicate that day 3 AMH values can predict ET accomplishment with a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 35%. Quartiles of AMH <25% (< 0.21 ng/mL) can predict the IVF results among poor responder IVF applicants. Impact statement Various cut-off values have been determined for day 3 serum AMH values. These values help to determine the groups that are expected to give normal, high or low response to stimulation and decide the treatment options. In contrast to other groups of patients, poor responders cannot reach the embryo transfer stage for several reasons. These are; absence of a mature oocyte after oocyte pick-up, fertilisation failure without male factor or poor embryo quality. In the present study; a cut-off value of 0.33 ng/mL for the prediction of ET accomplishment in poor responder patients was determined with a sensitivity of 96%. Additionally, clinical pregnancy could not be achieved under the value of 0.21 ng/mL day 3 AMH values. It is important to clarify the embryo transfer success of poor responder patients prior to expected treatment success. Pre-treatment counselling for these patients would lessen the disappointment that may develop after treatment. The cost-effectiveness of treatments below these AMH values can be determined by further studies.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

PubMed

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Syntheses and in Vitro Antiplasmodial Activity of Aminoalkylated Chalcones and Analogues.

PubMed

Wilhelm, Anke; Kendrekar, Pravin; Noreljaleel, Anwar E M; Abay, Efrem T; Bonnet, Susan L; Wiesner, Lubbe; de Kock, Carmen; Swart, Kenneth J; van der Westhuizen, Jan Hendrik

2015-08-28

A series of readily synthesized and inexpensive aminoalkylated chalcones and diarylpropane analogues (1-55) were synthesized and tested against chloroquinone-sensitive (D10 and NF54) and -resistant (Dd2 and K1) strains of Plasmodium falciparum. Hydrogenation of the enone to a diarylpropane moiety increased antiplasmodial bioactivity significantly. The influence of the structure of the amine moiety, A-ring substituents, propyl vs ethyl linker, and chloride salt formation on further enhancing antiplasmodial activity was investigated. Several compounds have IC₅₀ values similar to or better than chloroquine (CQ). The most active compound (26) had an IC₅₀ value of 0.01 μM. No signs of resistance were detected, as can be expected from compounds with structures unrelated to CQ and other currently used antimalarial drugs. Toxicity tests (in vitro CHO cell assay) gave high SI indices.

Baseline body temperatures, heart rates, and respiratory rates of moose in Alaska.

PubMed

Franzmann, A W; Schwartz, C C; Johnson, D C

1984-10-01

Baseline body temperatures (BT), heart rates (HR) and respiratory rates (RR) were obtained from Alaskan moose (Alces alces gigas Miller) at the Moose Research Center (MRC), Alaska. Excitability, seasons and drugs influenced the values to varying degrees. Excitability was the most influential factor. Safe expected ranges were: BT 38.4 to 38.9 C, HR 70 to 91 beats/min (b/min), and RR 13 to 40 respirations/min (r/min). These ranges incorporated all seasons, a central nervous system depressant drug and a paralyzing drug. Values which may be considered critical and an indication that corrective action should be taken include: BT 40.2 C, HR 102 b/min, and RR 40 r/min. It is recommended that persons trained in monitoring vital signs be on hand during moose capture and immobilization procedures.

Left Preference for Sport Tasks Does Not Necessarily Indicate Left-Handedness: Sport-Specific Lateral Preferences, Relationship with Handedness and Implications for Laterality Research in Behavioural Sciences

PubMed Central

Loffing, Florian; Sölter, Florian; Hagemann, Norbert

2014-01-01

In the elite domain of interactive sports, athletes who demonstrate a left preference (e.g., holding a weapon with the left hand in fencing or boxing in a ‘southpaw’ stance) seem overrepresented. Such excess indicates a performance advantage and was also interpreted as evidence in favour of frequency-dependent selection mechanisms to explain the maintenance of left-handedness in humans. To test for an overrepresentation, the incidence of athletes' lateral preferences is typically compared with an expected ratio of left- to right-handedness in the normal population. However, the normal population reference values did not always relate to the sport-specific tasks of interest, which may limit the validity of reports of an excess of ‘left-oriented’ athletes. Here we sought to determine lateral preferences for various sport-specific tasks (e.g., baseball batting, boxing) in the normal population and to examine the relationship between these preferences and handedness. To this end, we asked 903 participants to indicate their lateral preferences for sport-specific and common tasks using a paper-based questionnaire. Lateral preferences varied considerably across the different sport tasks and we found high variation in the relationship between those preferences and handedness. In contrast to unimanual tasks (e.g., fencing or throwing), for bimanually controlled actions such as baseball batting, shooting in ice hockey or boxing the incidence of left preferences was considerably higher than expected from the proportion of left-handedness in the normal population and the relationship with handedness was relatively low. We conclude that (i) task-specific reference values are mandatory for reliably testing for an excess of athletes with a left preference, (ii) the term ‘handedness’ should be more cautiously used within the context of sport-related laterality research and (iii) observation of lateral preferences in sports may be of limited suitability for the verification of evolutionary theories of handedness. PMID:25141020

Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies.

PubMed

Perring, Michael P; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Baeten, Lander; Midolo, Gabriele; Blondeel, Haben; Depauw, Leen; Landuyt, Dries; Maes, Sybryn L; De Lombaerde, Emiel; Carón, Maria Mercedes; Vellend, Mark; Brunet, Jörg; Chudomelová, Markéta; Decocq, Guillaume; Diekmann, Martin; Dirnböck, Thomas; Dörfler, Inken; Durak, Tomasz; De Frenne, Pieter; Gilliam, Frank S; Hédl, Radim; Heinken, Thilo; Hommel, Patrick; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Kirby, Keith J; Kopecký, Martin; Lenoir, Jonathan; Li, Daijiang; Máliš, František; Mitchell, Fraser J G; Naaf, Tobias; Newman, Miles; Petřík, Petr; Reczyńska, Kamila; Schmidt, Wolfgang; Standovár, Tibor; Świerkosz, Krzysztof; Van Calster, Hans; Vild, Ondřej; Wagner, Eva Rosa; Wulf, Monika; Verheyen, Kris

2018-04-01

The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land-use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey-resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites' contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.